The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Central Asia | Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2011 | Seq No: 14 | ARCHIVED on 18-Dec-2018 | ISR34925 | Implementing Agencies: Tajikhydromet, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Finance, Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (EC-IFAS), EC-IFAS Regional Center of Hydrology (RCH), Ministry of Emergency Situations Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 26-May-2011 Effectiveness Date: 11-Nov-2011 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 06-Oct-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 17-May-2014 Original Closing Date: 31-Aug-2016 Revised Closing Date: 31-Mar-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) is to improve the accuracy and timeliness of hydromet services in Central Asia, with particular focus on Kyrgyz Republic and Republic of Tajikistan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing and services:(Cost $12.20 M) Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic:(Cost $11.00 M) Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan:(Cost $16.00 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions CAHMP has played a key role in enhancing collaboration, information sharing and capacity building among four NMHSs in Central Asia. The project has made substantial progress in strengthening regional collaboration and institutional capacity of the four involved NMHSs. Through joint capacity building such as forecaster training, NMHS technical staff have developed operational relationships for collaboration, mutual support and recognition of the regional and national benefits of data sharing. The Project has also provided a management-level platform for Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to closely collaborate, build consensus on forward-looking enhancements and agree the aspects of weather/climate and hydrological information services that need to be managed with a regional dimension. For example, the four countries are collaborating on establishing operational regional numerical weather prediction, to be operated on behalf of the region by the RSMC Tashkent 12/18/2018 Page 1 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) (Regional Specialized Meteorology Center hosted by Uzhydromet). Under the Additional Financing, Turkmenistan has now joined the Project, and extra efforts are being undertaken to ensure its rapid integration in the Project and the related regional systems. KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are improving their services and therefore their utility for government ministries, partners and the public. Within KyrgzyHydromet and TajikHydromet, mindsets and perceptions have gradually shifted from a traditional government scientific agency approach focusing on technical activities, to a more user-oriented service provider approach, increasingly focusing on understanding and meeting user information needs. Promoting this cultural shift, the Project has supported activities such as preparation and subsequent approval of business development plans for KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet, which have further improved the potential for sustainability. In both cases, the statuses and budgets of these agencies have increased during project implementation, indicating improved recognition by government, in response to improved performance. In addition, KyrgyzHydromet and TajikHydromet are now able to contribute more information and expertise to regional efforts, for example leading the identification of regional capacity building needs for certain themes under the Bank’s Strengthening Early Warning of Mountain Hazards in Central Asia (P158373) technical assistance project. 12/18/2018 Page 2 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 12/18/2018 Page 3 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) 12/18/2018 Page 4 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Moderate Moderate Environment and Social -- Low Low Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Accuracy of hydrometeorological forecasts improved IN00563412 ►Increased accuracy of river flow forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 83% KgHM: 87% KgHM: 85% Value KgHM 62% TjHM 64% TjHM: 75% TjHM: 80% TjHM: 80% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563414 ►Increased accuracy and timeliness of basic weather forecasts (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 76% for KgHM and 66% for TjHM KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 94.7% KgHM: 85% Value TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% TjHM: 85% Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 Increased user satisfaction, including regarding timeliness, with hydrometeorological services IN00563437 12/18/2018 Page 5 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) ►Increased user satisfaction with hydrometeorological services (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target KgHM: 2.80 KgHM: 3.81 KgHM: 3.81 KgHM: 4.3 Value TjHM: 2.90 TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 4.26 TjHM: 4.3 Date 17-Jun-2016 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component A: Strengthening regional coordination and information sharing. IN00563442 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 1): Improved access to national and regional numeric weather prediction products to all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Central Asia NMHS 13 x 13 km every 6 hours community has access to global numerical The calculation results products from based on ftp are being ECMWF, transmitted for the Roshydromet, CMA, regional grid of resolution JMA and KMA. 13.2x13.2 km using the adapted COSMO SWFDP-CA technology in Website/Portal Uzhydromet and other (http://swfdp- NHMS CAs. ca.meteoinfo.ru) is operational. 7x7 km every 6 hours The system of local for all of Central Asia calculations for COSMO- Uzhydromet, 100x250 km transmitted Value CentralAsia-2 with a Kyrgyzhydromet and every 12 hours 2x2 km every 6 hours resolution of 2x2 km is Tajikhydromet have for the mountainous organized. licensed COSMO region of Central Asia software and The COSMO-CA-2 maintenance for the technology software was WMO RSMC developed for further (Tashkent). installation at Uzhydromet. Installation COSMO-CA model at of dedicated high 13 km resolution, powered computing producing forecasts facilities is currently every 6 hours, is under way at currently in testing UzHydromet. mode. Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563443 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 2): Established platform for integration of four NHMSs in CA (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Common methodology to Common methodology Regional approach Lack of agreed regional verify hydromet to verify hydromet adopted in hydromet Value approaches on forecasting accuracy forecasting accuracy forecasting and knowledge exchange developed and used. developed and used. decision-making 12/18/2018 Page 6 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) and emergency mechanism for procedures Installation of the Partial modernization regional issues Distance Learning of the WMO Regional formalized among the System (DLS) is Specialized four NHMSs in CA completed (Almaty, Meteorological Center Bishkek, Dushanbe and (RSMC) Tashkent Tashkent). completed. Guidelines and System of access to approaches to regional online information procedures for products based on emergency prevention satellite data in agreed by CA NHMS in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz 2014. Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan In Cholpon-Ata Lake established. Observatory of Kyrgyzhydromet, a new Guidelines and regional training center approaches for on lakes and water regional emergency reservoirs was warning procedures established for CA communicated to CA specialists. NHMSs for operational use. By December 2016, all activities related to Regional training creation of the regional center on lakes and system to access to water reservoirs online information established for CA products based on specialists based at satellite data in Cholpon-Ata Lake Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Observatory of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzhydromet. Uzbekistan was completed. Distance Learning System (DLS) installed Implementation of the in RCH EC IFAS, cascading method of Kyrgyzhydromet, severe weather Tajikhydromet and forecasting (SWFDP-CA) Uzhydromet. DLS is ongoing - it is branches are currently operational and currently being launched in being transitioned from Astana (Kazakhstan), Moscow (RosHydromet) Osh (Kyrgyzstan) and to Tashkent Bokhtar (Tajikistan). (UzHydromet). Supply and installation of training equipment for NWP at national and regional levels (4 CA NHMSs) is completed in WMO RSMC (Tashkent). Supply and installation of training equipment for CA NHMSs to support re-training and capacity development of observation units completed (RCH EC IFAS, Kyrgyzhydromet, 12/18/2018 Page 7 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Tajikhydromet and Uzhydromet). Date 10-Dec-2015 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2018 IN00573077 ►(Comp A: EC-IFAS, IRI 3): Improved access to landslide, mudflow and snowmelt guidance for all CA countries (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target CARFFGS provides CARFFGS provides only flash flood, landslide, flash flood guidance riverine routing and Value same as baseline same as baseline products across the snowmelt guidance region products across the region Date 02-Mar-2018 -- 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 Component B: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Kyrgyz Republic. IN00563438 ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 13% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters parameters. parameters. parameters 44% of stream gauges 100% of stream gauges 100% of stream 93% of stream gauges Value reporting operational reporting operational gauges reporting reporting operational data data. operational data. data 70% stream gauges 95% stream gauges 95% stream gauges 87% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges. measuring discharges. measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563439 ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 85% Value 86.00 99.85% 100.00 Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563444 ►(Component B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 3) Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 2,125,000 pages 2,125,000 pages Value 0.00 800,000 scanned scanned Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2018 IN00563413 ►(Comp B: Kyrgyz Republic, IRI 4) Increased institutional strength and sustainability of Kyrgyzhydromet (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Existing legal structure, KgHM prepared a list of KgHM prepared a list New regulations Value operating procedures operational guidelines of operational developed. 12/18/2018 Page 8 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) and staffing are necessary for operations guidelines necessary inadequate to meet in light of modernized for operations in light New standard KgHM mission#s needs. infrastructure; the terms of modernized operating procedures of reference to draft infrastructure; the developed. Investment and O&M these is being developed. terms of reference to needs far exceed KgHM draft these is being New business plan budgets. “Fee-for-service” developed. developed. arrangements have been piloted in few sectors, “Fee-for-service” Budget significantly resulting in a 7% arrangements have increased. increase in the special been piloted in few account funds. The sectors, resulting in a Marketing Department 7% increase in the has initiated regular special account funds. quality survey The Marketing assessments of users, Department has and is implementing initiated regular quality simplification of the survey assessments of payment system for users, and is KgHM services. implementing simplification of the KgHM budget is now payment system for sufficient to cover O&M KgHM services. needs of regular operations. KgHM budget is now sufficient to cover O&M needs of regular operations. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 Component C: Strengthening of Hydromet Services in Republic of Tajikistan. IN00563440 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 1) Improved status of hydrometeorological observation networks (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 19% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 100% of meteostations 90% of meteostations gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo gauging main meteo parameters parameters parameters parameters 16% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges 50% of stream gauges Value reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational reporting operational data data data data 49% stream gauges 60% stream gauges 61% stream gauges 71% stream gauges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges measuring discharges Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563441 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 2) Better transmission of data to global telecommunication system (GTS) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 70.00 95.00 96.60 100.00 12/18/2018 Page 9 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563415 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 3) Increased sustainability and strengthened performance of Tajikhydromet operations (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target New regulations and operational guidelines developed in line with new concept, modernized observation infrastructure and technologies are fully functioning. “Fee-for-service” arrangement piloted in few sectors, in particular energy, agriculture, New regulations housing and developed. Existing legal structure, transportation. For 10 operating procedures months of 2017, 9 Overall concept of New standard and staffing are contracts were signed for Tajikhydromet operating procedures inadequate to meet TjHM about US$5000. business plan is now developed. Value mission needs. under implementation. In April 2017 TjHM New business plan Investment and O&M requested the developed. needs far exceed TjHM Environmental Protection budgets. Committee to submit the Budget significantly draft budget of increased. Tajikhydromet to the Finance Ministry of taking into account the allocation of additional funds for the O&M of the upgraded observation network. Currently, no additional funds for O & M are needed. Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 31-Mar-2021 IN00563445 ►(Component C Tajikistan, IRI 4): Historical data archiving (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1,130,500 pages - 1,130,500 pages - Value 0.00 scanning of data is scanning of data is 800,000 complete complete Date 31-Aug-2011 28-Oct-2016 01-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2018 IN00563436 ►(Comp C: Tajikistan, IRI 5) Increased reliability of climate data (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Information on climate Ability to downscale local Ability to downscale Ability to downscale to Value limited and of inadequate scales for at least 90% of local scales for at least local scales for at least quality the country 90% of the country 90% of the country 12/18/2018 Page 10 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Date 31-Aug-2011 01-Dec-2017 01-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2018 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P120788 IDA-49340 Effective USD 5.10 5.10 0.00 4.62 0.07 99% Not P120788 IDA-62940 USD 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.52 0% Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3520 USD 2.50 2.50 0.00 0.00 2.52 0% Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3560 USD 3.50 3.50 0.00 0.00 3.50 0% Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3620 USD 3.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 3.08 0% Effective P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective USD 8.70 8.70 0.00 7.50 0.47 94% P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective USD 0.90 0.90 0.00 0.87 0.00 100% P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective USD 6.00 6.00 0.00 5.55 0.00 100% P120788 TF-99848 Effective USD 7.00 7.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P120788 IDA-49340 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 Not P120788 IDA-62940 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3520 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3560 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective Not P120788 IDA-D3620 01-Aug-2018 -- -- 31-Mar-2021 31-Mar-2021 Effective P120788 IDA-H6770 Effective 26-May-2011 12-Jul-2011 12-Jan-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-H6780 Effective 26-May-2011 23-Aug-2011 03-May-2012 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 IDA-H6790 Effective 26-May-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Mar-2021 P120788 TF-99848 Effective 13-Jul-2011 13-Jul-2011 11-Nov-2011 31-Aug-2016 31-Dec-2018 Cumulative Disbursements 12/18/2018 Page 11 of 12 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (P120788) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 28-Jan-2016 ,Level 2 Approved on 23-Mar-2018 Related Project(s) P164780-Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP) Additional Financing 12/18/2018 Page 12 of 12