Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 76241-NE THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER JOINT IDA-IMF STAFF ADVISORY NOTE ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2012-2015 April 5, 2013 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management 4 Country Department AFCW3 Africa Regional Office This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Table of Contents   I. Overview ................................................................................................................................................... 1  II. Poverty and Gender .................................................................................................................................. 3  III. Macroeconomic Framework ...................................................................................................................  4  ................................................................................................................................. 6  IV. Cross cutting issues  V. Observations on the five PDES pillars .....................................................................................................  7  VI. Cost, Implementation Arrangements, and Monitoring and Evaluation ................................................ 10  .........................................................................................................................  11  VII. Conclusions and Risks  THE INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION AND THE INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND THE REPUBLIC OF NIGER Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Economic and Social Development Plan 2012-2015 Prepared by the Staffs of the International Development Association and the International Monetary Fund Approved by Ousmane Diagana (IDA)] David Robinson and Peter Allum (IMF) April 5, 2013 I. Overview 1. Niger’s new Poverty Reduction Strategy – the Plan for Economic and Social Development (PDES) was approved by the Council of Ministers on August 1, 2012.1 It represents Niger’s overarching reference framework for the Government’s development agenda. It seeks to operationalize the Niger Renaissance Program launched by the country’s president, incorporating the orientations of the Government’s general policy statement. The overarching focus of the PDES is on achieving higher economic growth of around 8 percent over the PDES period (2012-2015) as the means to improve significantly the living conditions of all Nigeriens. 2. The PDES also proposes changes in policy orientation and institutional arrangements to respond to recent developments in Niger and in the sub region. In particular, in order to prevent a recurrence of the political instability experienced during the period 2009 – 2010, the PDES pays particular attention to the consolidation of the credibility and efficacy of public institutions. Increased regional security threats in the wake of the overthrow of the regime in Libya and the rebel movements in neighboring Mali are reflected in greater priority being given to security, but also to a more inclusive development approach that seeks to reduce regional disparities. In light of recurring food crises, the PDES also pays particular attention to agriculture sector development and food security, as one of Government’s priority programs. 3. At the institutional level, the PDES is now the responsibility of the Ministry for Planning, Regional and Community Development, while responsibility for its predecessor – the Strategy for Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction 2008-2012 (SDRP) was located in the Prime Minister’s Office. The Ministry of Planning, Regional, and Community Development was established in order to reinforce strategic planning, coordination of the                                                              1 Subsequently, the Ministry of Planning, Regional, and Community Development also prepared and issued a Priority Action Plan and a Strategic Results Framework.   development process, and economic management. The Ministry of Planning is also developing a long term strategy for inclusive growth covering the period 2012-2035. It is expected that the PDES and its successors will be aligned with the long term strategy and be the main instruments for the operationalization of this long term strategy. 4. The PDES targets eleven strategic results and identifies 86 programs for their achievement. These are clustered in five programmatic areas which are (i) Strengthening the credibility and efficiency of public institutions; (ii) Creating the conditions for inclusive, sustainable and balanced development; (iii) Food security and sustainable agricultural development; (iv) Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated, inclusive growth; and (v) Promotion of social development. 5. The PDES was developed in an inclusive participatory process. As the PDES seeks to operationalize the program of the democratically elected government, it draws its legitimacy directly from its link to the program of the democratically elected government, which was presented to and endorsed by the National Assembly. The institutional framework for the preparation of the PDES included an Interministerial Commission for Strategic Planning, a committee including government and development partners, a technical national committee, twelve sectoral and thematic working groups, and eight regional committees. Civil society and development partner representatives participated in the sectoral, thematic, and regional committees. In an iterative participative process, drafts of the PDES were presented to development partners and civil society for comments and inputs at various stages of the process. In addition, the PDES brings together a range of sectoral and thematic strategies, which also followed inclusive processes in their development, such as the strategy for agricultural development and food security or the public financial management reform program. During the implementation of the PDES, it will be important to keep the National Assembly engaged and to deepen participative processes. 6. The mid-term review of the SDRP2 highlighted the following lessons which fed into the preparation of the PDES:  The participative process used for the elaboration of the SDRP has been appreciated by all stakeholders and has thus been maintained for the preparation of the PDES.  The implementation arrangements for the SDRP were well designed, but did not work well. Particular attention should thus be paid to strengthen the implementation mechanisms for the PDES. In particular, a profusion of multisectoral committees associated with each sectoral strategy did often not function well because of the lack of appropriate human, logistical, and financial resources. A rationalized implementation framework for the PDES will thus be important for its success.  Sectoral policies were often not appropriately aligned with the SDRP. It will thus be important that sectors involved in the realization of the PDES develop or align their strategies to ensure consistency with the PDES.  All the risks that were identified in the SDRP did materialize. This implies that the PDES needs to pay particular attention to the establishment of effective mechanisms for the management of risks.                                                              2 Republique du Niger – Cabinet du Premier Ministre. Principaux Enseignements de la Mise en Œuvre de la SDRP et de son Architecture Institutionelle pour une Mise en Œuvre Adequate du PDES. 2      Of the required external financing for the SDRP, after three years of implementation only 17.3 percent of the targeted amount could be mobilized, partly as a result of the political instability experienced during that period. Nonetheless, strengthening the capacity for resource mobilization and absorption will be critical for the success of the PDES. For the major investment projects foreseen under the PDES, it will also be important to establish appropriate mechanisms for private-public partnerships.  The review also highlights improvements in all dimensions of governance.  Finally, the review also suggests to establish a new framework for engagements with development partners in order to strengthen the policy dialogue and mutual accountability. II. Poverty and Gender 7. Poverty is wide spread in Niger and has only declined marginally from about 63 percent in 1990 to 59.5 percent in 2008. A detailed poverty assessment was carried out by the World Bank in partnership with the Nigerien authorities and fed into the preparation of the PDES. A Living Standards Measurement Study Survey was carried out in 2011 and new poverty estimates are currently being prepared. These will provide a solid baseline for monitoring the impact of PDES implementation on poverty in Niger. A follow up Living Measurement Study Survey is planned to be carried out in 2014. 8. The PDES focuses on accelerating economic growth and improving the living conditions of all Nigeriens. Poverty reduction is framed as the objective of enlarging the Nigerien middle class defined as the population that lives above the national poverty line but which does not belong to the wealthiest ten percent of the population. The PDES target is to enlarge the middle class from about 30 percent of the population in 2012 to about 50 percent by 2015. This increase in the middle class would imply a decline in the headcount poverty index by about 20 percentage points. Staffs concur that the targeted progress in poverty reduction would be consistent with a targeted average annual per capita income growth of at least four percent, an income elasticity of at least minus two, and unchanged inequality.3 However, staffs also wish to note that over the past six years poverty has only fallen by six percentage points and due to the high rate of population growth, the absolute number of the poor has actually increased.4 The PDES recognizes that this decline in the poverty incidence would still be insufficient to meet the MDG for poverty reduction, which would require a drop in poverty to about 30 percent. In order to ensure that policies support pro-poor economic growth, staffs suggest to deepen the analysis of the impact of the policies proposed in the PDES on poverty and employment. 9. In the course of PDES implementation, it will be important that interventions target explicitly the poorest and most vulnerable groups to avoid that benefits such as subsidized inputs, irrigated land, and food security interventions are disproportionally captured by the better off. For example, irrigation development should be accompanied by the development of a clear approach on the allocation of irrigated land.                                                              3 Fosu (2011) estimates that the income elasticity of poverty for Niger was -1.149. However, a large number of countries have income elasticities of poverty between minus two and minus three, which suggests that a pro poor growth strategy could indeed yield the targeted reduction in poverty, if Niger is able to meet the growth targets set out in the PRSP. 4 Change in the poverty headcount index between 2005 and 2011, based on preliminary analysis of the 2011 LSMS data. 3     10. The PDES proposes to treat gender as a cross cutting issue and contains specific programs for the promotion of gender equality. The PDES could be strengthened by providing a clear road map laying out specific actions and resources aimed at promoting gender sensitive outcomes. Among the PDES programs that address some of the fundamental gender inequalities is the program to achieve universal free and mandatory basic education up to the age of 16. This would not only help to close the gender gap for basic education, but would also help to raise the average age of marriage and reduce child and maternal mortality – which are often the result of the very young age of women at first childbirth. Staffs note that achievement of this objective will require significant human and financial resources and would welcome a more detailed plan on how this objective is to be achieved. Programs to manage population growth and to improve reproductive health services also will have a direct positive impact on the situation of women. Improved access to water will help to reduce one of the major household burdens for women, and more specifically for girls who often have to spend significant time to fetch water over long distances. In other areas, especially economic development and governance, programs to reduce gender inequalities are less visible. Staffs thus suggest that government seeks to identify entry points in the area of economic development such as access to credit and agricultural inputs, and land, which could play an important role in enhancing economic opportunities for women. Sensitization efforts to improve women’s status and rights can also play an important role in generating a positive dynamic for a more gender inclusive development process. Monitoring of the gender impact of PDES implementation could be strengthened by including more gender disaggregated indicators in the PDES monitoring matrix. III. Macroeconomic Framework 11. The PDES presents three different macro-economic scenarios – a base case scenario with average annual economic growth of 8 percent, a high growth scenario with economic growth of 9.7 percent and a low growth scenario with an economic growth rate of 6.2 percent over the period 2012-2015. All three scenarios are predicated on an ambitious public investment agenda. The PDES identifies several risks to growth, (i) climatic shocks and natural disasters, (ii) a deterioration of the global environment, including the regional security situation, and (iii) risks related to the financing of the PDES. Growth in the baseline scenario is mainly driven by the expansion of the natural resource sector. The low growth scenario assumes that the downside risks materialize, including more frequent droughts, weaker external demand, and lower levels of investment. The high growth scenario assumes good climatic conditions, and a favorable global economic environment, with higher levels of investment. 12. The growth figures in the PDES baseline scenario are broadly consistent with the projections in the Fund-supported program. In particular, the PDES assumes the start of petroleum exports in 2012 would lead to a GDP annual growth rate for that year of 11.6 percent, followed by a 6.8, 7, and 6.6 percent growth respectively for 2013, 2014 and 2015. Growth projections under the Fund-supported program are of similar magnitude. 13. The PDES identifies the extractive industries sector as the main driver of economic growth during the PDES period. Staffs note that, while growth in this sector can provide important impulses for growth in other sectors, the development of the non-resource sectors of the economy will remain crucial to achieve inclusive growth. To achieve this, priority needs to be given to reforms of the business environment and the mitigation of risks that are typically associated with a large extractive industries sector. These include increased vulnerability to 4     international demand for uranium and petrol as well as Dutch disease risks in the form of an appreciation of the real exchange rate and thus a deterioration of Niger’s international competitiveness, but also other risks that often hinder the development of resource rich economies such as weakened governance, capture of rents, or increased conflict. If not well managed, expansion of the extractives industries could stymie the competitiveness of the Nigerien economy and have adverse growth effects. 14. Priority should be given to ensuring that the full potential of the oil sector is properly exploited. During the first year of oil production in 2012, a range of problems related to the refining and the marketing of oil products resulted in poor performance of the sector. Production was significantly below the capacity of the refinery which caused financial losses of the refinery that were close to one percent of GDP. Staffs welcome the preparation and implementation of an action plan that would ensure proper coordination of actors in the sector. Continued application of EITI standards and transparency in the use of mining revenues for shared growth will be important for national cohesion, given that in the past tensions over the distribution of natural resource rents have been one of the underlying causes of conflict. 15. Staffs consider the high growth scenario as unlikely to materialize at this point, in the absence of more far-reaching reforms aimed at improving the business climate, which will be crucial for economic diversification and job creation. Because the employment effects of the natural resource sector are limited, improving the business climate by taking comprehensive measures aimed at strengthening the judiciary system and fighting corruption, simplifying business regulations and procedures for trade, and improving the efficiency of the tax and customs administration, will be essential to foster non-extractive sector growth and thus promote diversification, in order to achieve the government’s high growth scenario. 16. Staffs note that although fluctuations in the price of exports are rightly considered as global risks to the macroeconomic framework, the low growth scenario analysis does not include the impact of declines in the export price of oil. Assuming a 30 percent decline in the export price of petroleum products, staffs projections would imply a 20 percent decrease in government oil revenue. 17. The government budget is the main tool for the implementation of the PDES. However, the preparation of the PDES and the 2013 budget were carried out in parallel with little alignment between the two. The split of the former Ministry of Economy and Finance into a Ministry of Finance, responsible for budget preparation, and a Ministry of Planning, responsible for the PDES and the investment budget, has repeatedly resulted in serious coordination problems with regard to budget preparation an implementation. Strengthening the coordination between the Ministry of Planning, Regional, and Community Development and the Ministry of Finance should thus be a priority in order to ensure effective translation of the PDES into Medium-Term Expenditure Frameworks and annual budgets. 18. Staffs note that the fiscal framework in the PDES needs to be clarified. It would be important to link the costing of the PDES more clearly to the macroeconomic and fiscal scenarios to ensure consistency. Annual PDES expenditures presented in the prioritized PDES action plan are close to or even exceed projected total government expenditures (current and capital expenditures) shown under the different macro-economic scenarios. Also,  figures  shown  in  the  PDES  point  to  a  budget  deficit  of  15.9 percent  in  2013,  going  up  to  19.1 percent  in  2015,  while  the  Fund�supported  program  implies  a  deficit  of  12.4 percent  in  2013  and  10.8 percent  in  2015.  The  PDES  5     does  not  provide  a  focused  discussion  or  analysis  of  debt  sustainability.  The PDES does not provide a focused discussion or analysis of debt sustainability. 19. Much of the PDES program would manifest itself in an increase in the government investment budget. Already now, when recurrent expenditures account for about 15 percent and investment expenditure for seven percent of GDP, operation and maintenance expenditures (such as for roads) are often underfunded. With a rapid increase in investment expenditures, it will be critical to carefully consider recurrent expenditure implications. IV. Cross cutting issues 20. The PDES presents an ambitious program, the implementation of which will however face significant constraints in terms of available resources and absorptive capacity. The prioritized action plan foresees an increase in PDES related expenditure from about US$1.2 billion in 2012 to US$3.8 billion in 2015, for a total of US$10.8 billion over the four year period. Of this, about 77 percent or US$8.3 billion is to be externally funded. At a PDES Round Table held in Paris from November 13-14, 2012, indications of donor support for the period 2012-2015 amounted to about US$4.8 billion, leaving an external resource gap of about US$3.6 billion. Over the previous five years, annual external financing for Niger was between US$300 and US$400 annually. Reaching the level of externally funded expenditures envisaged in the PDES would thus require a massive increase in the amount of external support and absorptive capacity. As an operational strategy to deal with financing and absorptive capacity risks, staffs thus advise the authorities to further prioritize the PDES to a volume of expenditures that represents a more organic evolution from historic levels of expenditures while at the same time implementing measures to strengthen absorptive capacity. 21. Further prioritization and sequencing could be guided by considering more explicitly the linkages between programs across pillars and focusing on those that are together essential for the achievement of key overall results. This would also be facilitated by a clearer hierarchy of results in the results framework. Such prioritization could also be an opportunity to pay more attention to synergies across pillars and across sectors in designing PDES priority programs, focusing on core causes and solutions and moving to a more cross sectoral approach. If further prioritization is not undertaken, the authorities would forgo an important opportunity to effectively focus donor funding on the highest priority needs. 22. The following provides a few examples of linkages across programs that could assist further prioritization and sequencing of reforms and investments. The PDES could be strengthened by paying closer attention to the interaction between economic growth, employment, and skills development. The PDES discusses skills development as part of the pillar on social development. However, it would be important to treat skills development as a central part of Niger’s growth agenda and identify specific skills needs and employment prospects related to the drivers of growth proposed in the PDES. For instance, much evidence points to the fact that job growth in the extractive industries is constrained by lack of semi- skilled and skilled workers needed for the construction and operational phases of these industries. This job/skill mismatch is also visible in other sectors contributing to constraining Niger’s economic development. The government needs to do more to address this skill gap with higher support to the TVET sector and the development of a demand-driven skill development system. Another example would be the contribution of social development issues to the realization of the objectives of the other pillars of the PDES, such as the contribution of social 6     protection to food security or the role of skills development in fostering competitiveness. Human capital development is not only an end in itself, it is a key determinant of productivity and employability and therefore inclusive growth. 23. Staffs note that limits to the administrative implementation capacity may be more constraining than expected. Even at current levels of investment spending, project implementation capacity is weak and often results in slowly and poorly executed investment projects. The strengthening of government’s administrative capacity is thus key to the implementation of the PDES. Staffs thus suggest that the expansion of government’s program and project implementation capacity and the scaling up of budgetary spending need to go hand in hand in order to avoid slow or poorly implemented projects that claim resources, but are not able to generate the expected outcomes. Building capable institutions requires a long-term horizon and generally feeds on incremental achievements and quick wins in targeted areas. The wholesale approach of being everywhere at the same time has not proved to be effective for Niger. The Government has taken this approach in PFM, justice, civil service, and decentralization, with very little success. It thus needs to prioritize and start with programs that have the most catalytic effects. Of particular importance would also be a strengthening of Niger’s public investment management system, in line with the diagnostic and recommendations provided in the Second Public Expenditure Management and Accountability Report. 24. The investment program spelt out in the PDES should be accompanied by a monitorable priority plan for institutional and policy reforms. Far reaching institutional and policy reforms will be needed to ensure that proposed investments achieve the targeted results. For example, the Kandadji development program will need to be accompanied by reforms of key institutions in the energy and irrigation sector, such as the Nigerien Office for Irrigation (ONAHA) and the power sector utility (NIGELEC) as well as tariff reforms. Another example would be reforms of road maintenance funding and management arrangements to accompany investments in the road sector. 25. In order to enhance the management of aid and to promote aid effectiveness, staffs would welcome the preparation of an aid strategy to complement the PDES. Such a strategy could guide donor coordination, the choice of aid instruments and the role of budget support, the use of country systems, and the implementation of measures to strengthen aid effectiveness. As such, an aid strategy could also serve as the basis for enhanced mutual accountability between the Nigerien authorities and its technical and financial partners. Overall aid levels to Niger as reported in OECD aid statistics are low and efforts to mobilize further donor resources are welcome and needed. A large share of aid is currently delivered outside government, either though NGOs or direct execution by donor agencies. As highlighted in the World Development Report on Development and Security, large aid flows outside government can undermine the credibility and stability of government. Staffs thus encourage government to continue strengthening public financial management systems in order to enhance donor confidence in the reliability of these systems for the delivery of aid. V. Selective observations on the five PDES pillars 26. The Bank's 2011 Poverty Assessment notes that crop yields in Niger are half of the West African average (except for rice), an observation that perhaps merits greater consideration in the PDES. Low producer prices and high levels of risk deter the investment necessary for higher yields. Reducing the rent extracted by transport cartels by freeing-up 7     competition would allow producer prices to rise without increasing consumer prices. Conversely, cartelization of transport captures the benefits of other reforms and investments aimed at boosting productivity, without bringing benefits to consumers or increasing farm incomes. In this regard, the recent Bank report "Africa Can Help Feed Africa" notes the economic impact in Niger of national quotas for freight, and the queuing system for freight allocation, finding that these increase prices for food staples for consumers, exacerbating food insecurity. 27. An Agriculture Sector Risks Assessment prepared by the Bank in 2012 systematically analyzes a whole range of agricultural risks and their impact over a longer time period (1980-2012). It helps to situate drought in the context of other agricultural risks; prioritizes the most important agricultural risks for the country based on objective criteria; and provides a framework of mitigation-transfer-coping to manage priority risks. While the PDES notes the potential of weather insurance to boost investment in agricultural production, the assessment highlight the limitations of financial risk transfer (insurance) and social safety nets. It emphasizes a broader and holistic agricultural risk management approach. The filtering mechanism proposed in the study may help the Government to select high return interventions for agricultural risk management in the detailed action plan being prepared for the implementation of the 3N initiative. 28. Staffs welcome that the PDES includes livestock productivity as a key element of rural development. In addition to playing an important role in efforts to foster pro-poor growth, balanced attention to agriculture and livestock also has an important role to play in fostering national cohesion, given that perceptions of relative negligence of livestock issues can contribute to conflict. 29. While strengthening domestic agricultural production is important to enhance food security, facilitating domestic and international trade in food and agricultural products can play an equally important role. Reducing barriers to trade and enhancing regional integration (which are explicitly targeted under the pillar on the creation of a competitive and diversified economy) also play an important role for agriculture and food security and should thus be an essential element of the government’s strategy in this area. 30. In staffs’ view, the PDES could put greater emphasis on the need to remove obstacles to domestic and international competition. This would enhance the efficiency of the economy and help foster growth and reduce costs and prices. Efforts to strengthen the tax administration could also play an important role in creating a level playing field by preventing businesses from gaining unfair advantages through tax avoidance. Public procurement reforms should similarly aim at providing equal access to procurement opportunities and provide incentives for full tax compliance. Targeted improvements in the judicial system would also play an important role in strengthening domestic and international trade. 31. Staffs encourage the authorities to finalize and adopt the action plan for the improvement of the business environment and ensure proper prioritization. A variety of investment climate assessments and the annual Doing Business reports highlight significant weaknesses in Niger’s regulatory environment for businesses. In order to ensure that reforms result indeed in increased investment, trade and growth, it will be important that the action plan is clearly prioritized, especially considering the authorities weak capacity. Reforms aimed at facilitating domestic and international trade and at establishing a level playing field for all potential market participants should be given priority. 8     32. Financial sector development can play an important role in fostering economic opportunities and growth and is thus rightly included as a priority area for reform. The recently developed financial sector development strategy and action plan provide a sound roadmap for the development of the financial sector. An area of particular importance is increased access to financial services and credit for SMEs and the agriculture sector. While the PDES proposes to carry out studies on financing conditions in these areas, staffs note that with the support of the World Bank a study on rural finance has already been carried out. The financial sector development strategy and action plan contain important measures to enhance access to finance for PMEs and the rural sector, which should be implemented on a priority basis. The PDES is also silent on the role of micro-finance for Niger’s development. It is important to note that access to micro-finance in Niger is significantly less than in neighboring countries. There may thus be important opportunities to scale up the sector and thus provide more opportunities for poor households. 33. In staffs’ view, the objective of free and mandatory education until the age of 16 should be one of the main focus areas of the entire PDES, in line with the priority accorded in the President’s program and the declaration of government policy. Staffs note that the PDES results framework targets an increase in primary education enrolment (the first six years of schooling) from about 76.1 percent in 2011 to 96 percent by 2015, but does not provide targets for enrolment until the age of 16. In staffs’ view, focusing on increasing enrollment for primary education as an important step towards achieving universal education to the age of 16 is appropriate. Accelerated progress towards this objective will require increased financial and human resources as well as better management of the education sector. Staffs would also encourage the authorities to consider innovative approaches to service delivery in education, including strengthening the role of communities and improving accountability mechanisms. 34. Staffs welcome that the PDES underlines the importance of efficient and effective institutional functioning of the education sector. However, the theme of financing is not covered. In addition, with regard to all aspects of management and organization of technical training and higher education it would be important to emphasize the importance of partnerships with the private sector - either in the context of dual channels (for technical training) or in a learning environment (in an “apprenticeship� context), or in a context of collaboration between university and industry (in curriculum development, for example). It should also be stressed that the technical and vocational training should be commensurate with the needs of the economy. In staffs’ view, the theme of certification and evaluation of skills also deserves more emphasis. 35. Staffs note that the Government policy of free health services for vulnerable groups, including small children and pregnant women, plays an important role in improving overall health indicators and, in particular, the health of the poorest and most vulnerable. However, delays in the reimbursement of health centers that provide free services jeopardize the viability of the system and should thus be addressed urgently. 36. The projected pace of population growth poses substantial difficulties in terms of providing Nigeriens with adequate livelihoods and economic opportunities, as well as access to education and health services, while also exerting considerable pressure on the natural resources system which contributes to land degradation and natural disasters. Progress in achieving universal mandatory basic education until the age of 16 would be expected to have a direct impact on population growth. Staffs also note that control of demographic growth depends importantly on strong programs for fostering reproductive health. Niger has 9     been able to make some progress with regard to family planning which needs to be sustained during the PDES period. VI. Cost, Implementation Arrangements, and Monitoring and Evaluation 37. The overall cost of all PDES programs is about US$12.6 billion. A prioritized action plan for the implementation of the PDES over the period 2012-2015 contains PDES programs that amount to US$10.8 billion. Since the PDES provides little detail on the elements of proposed programs and their cost, it is difficult for staff to assess the appropriateness of the aggregate cost estimates. As mentioned before, further prioritization of the PDES to align it with absorptive capacity and to be able to maintain focus if the level of available resources is less then envisaged would be critical. 38. Implementation arrangements for the PDES entail a multi-layered system. It has at its top an PDES Orientation Council chaired by the Prime Minster and includes an Inter- ministerial Commission for Strategic Planning, a National Committee (Government /donors – DAC/OECD), a National Technical Committee, sector committees, and regional, district, and municipal PDES monitoring committees. The implementation structure resembles that for the previous PRSP even though the PRSP mid-term review noted that the implementation structure did not function well. Only four of the eight regional committees were functioning and government – donor meetings were not held regularly and without clear terms of reference. Part of this may have been due to the political instability that Niger experienced during the SDRP implementation. Having the SDRP secretariat located in the Prime Minister’s Office put the SDRP at the center of the government policy making and coordination process. However, it also implied that attention to the SDRP was often crowded out by many competing priorities handled by the Prime Minister’s Office. The establishment of a Ministry of Planning, Regional and Community Development which is now responsible for the PDES holds the potential that PDES implementation and monitoring receives undivided attention which will need to be accompanied by effective mechanisms to coordinate the actions of all ministries involved in PDES implementation. In going forward, it will be particularly important that the mechanism for the implementation and monitoring of the PDES is appropriately resourced in order to ensure its functioning. Furthermore, given the central role of the Ministry of Finance in ensuring the alignment of public expenditures with the PDES, staffs recommend that the implementation framework also recognize the importance of the Ministry of Finance more explicitly, for example by having the Ministry of Finance co-chair the Inter-ministerial Commission for Strategyic Planning and other implementation organs. 39. The PDES monitoring and evaluation system focuses on (i) monitoring of the execution of PDES programs through quarterly program execution reports prepared by the implementing ministries and agencies; (ii) monitoring of results on the basis of identified results indicators and targets; (iii) monitoring of public expenditures through an annual public expenditure review; (iv) a mid-term and final evaluation; and (v) an evaluation of the impacts of public policies which would focus on five to ten policies or measures every year. Staffs note that further work is needed on the results indicators for the PDES, as at present a large number of indicators lack baseline and target values. There is also a need to better capture efficiency, quality and equity of social sectors’ interventions using more comprehensive indicators. Staffs also note that the living standards measurement survey which was carried out in 2011 can provide important baselines for the monitoring of the impact of the PDES implementation. Staffs also highlight the importance of government commitment to the 10     planned follow up survey in 2014, which will represent an important tool to measure changes in many of the PDES target areas. VII. Conclusions and Risks 40. Overall, the PDES provides a comprehensive analysis of Niger’s development challenges and plan to achieve accelerated sustainable growth. The clear articulation of the interconnectedness of good governance, security and development, which was also highlighted by Niger’s President at the PDES Round Table in Paris, is welcome and addresses the significant domestic and external challenges that Niger is confronted with in its pursuit of economic and social development. Staffs welcome the government’s strategic choice to focus on fostering sustainable and inclusive growth as the means to achieve poverty reduction. However, in the course of implementation of the PDES, close attention should be paid to ensuring that interventions do indeed provide new opportunities for the poor and help to address gender inequalities. The PDES is ambitious and will pose significant challenges in terms of resource mobilization and utilization which will require further prioritization of and within PDES programs and a focus on enhancing absorptive capacity. Necessary institutional and policy reforms will need to be spelled out clearly and receive priority during PDES implementation to ensure that resources are efficiently used and yield the expected results. Finally, strengthening mechanisms that would translate the PDES into Medium Term Expenditures and annual budgets will be essential. 41. The PDES identifies key risks to the achievements of the PDES objectives as well as mitigating measures. The risks can be grouped into two broad clusters. The first are risks external to the implementation of the PDES. They include natural disasters such as droughts and inundations, cricket infestations, and animal diseases; an adverse external economic environment, disruptive socio-political developments, and security threats. 42. A second group of risks would result in weak implementation of the PDES. They are related to weak engagement of stakeholders in the implementation of the PDES, inadequate funding, poor donor coordination and alignment; and weaknesses in program implementation of the PDES. Staffs concur with the importance of adopting mitigating measures to address these risks, especially strengthening public sector capacities and financial management systems. However, it is important to note that these risks are rooted in deep seated problems of public sector performance. International experience clearly points to the significant effort and time needed to address these problems. It will thus be important to appropriately sequence reforms to ensure that appropriate implementation capacity exists when programs are launched. 11   REPUBLIC OF NIGER Fraternity – Work – Progress Ministry of Planning, Land Management and Community Development Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES) 2012�2015 FOREWORD With this 2012-2015Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES), Niger is truly resuming the exercise of economic planning after several decades during which the planning function was weakened. This choice undoubtedly reflects the government’s desire to reconcile the imperatives of economic and financial planning focused on finding solutions to short-term concerns and the need to define coherent long-term development strategies best suited for developing the country’s natural and human resources to ensure that future generations are allowed to flourish. Based on the deep-rooted aspirations of Niger’s Renaissance Program, the 2012-2015 PDES is both a reflection of that program and its principal short- and medium- term implementing instrument. The plan rests on the Prime Minister’s General Policy Statement (DPG), which provides its substance, principal guidelines, and strategic pillars. The process of developing the PDES was inspired by a search for strong consensus regarding its broad outlines in order to guarantee its adoption, particularly by involving all stakeholders in its formulation, thus facilitating its implementation. Accordingly, it provided another opportunity to strengthen dialogue between the administration (central and decentralized), civil society, and the development partners regarding the sectoral policies and strategies that will be undertaken. In this regard, the 2012-2015 PDES represents the single frame of reference in the area of economic and social development during this period both for the government and for the technical and financial partners (TFPs). It serves as a unifying framework for all political and sectoral policies conducted by the government and a framework for dialogue with the technical and financial partners. It embodies the government’s firm commitment to provide an effective response to the major challenges facing our country and to this end marks a sharp break with the past in the area of managing development and governance. In this spirit, the 2012-2015 PDES is essentially predicated as an instrument of economic and social policy that is simultaneously dynamic, ambitious, and proactive and on a scale sufficient to address the challenges Niger is facing. In effect, the proposed guidelines are supported by a forward-looking macroeconomic framework that honors our commitments and is characterized by a drive toward sustained development in keeping with the Renaissance Program. The scenarios used, which seek to more clearly define the areas in which our economy would evolve given climate risks and the evolution of the international economy, did not deviate from the proactive nature of the plan, thus giving substance to the desire to optimize the management of the economy so as to achieve maximum growth and well-being, regardless of the circumstances. The eight percent average growth that the PDES uses in the base scenario is to a large extent the result of growth obtained from the development of petroleum and uranium production, estimated at close to three percentage points. Excluding the effects of growth in the mining and energy sectors, expected growth is 5.5 percent, which is entirely realistic based on recommended investments and various structural transformations planned. This high rate of 1 overall growth will be accompanied by all actions necessary to ensure better distribution of the fruits of growth, another major objective of the PDES. The Economic and Social Development Plan lays the groundwork for a medium-term economic policy that will give impetus to a dynamic of balanced development driven by strong, inclusive, and sustainable growth. It will be supported in this regard by the country’s numerous areas of potential and its natural resources, the exploitation of which represents the principal lever of growth. This will mean capitalizing in particular on the exploitation of the significant mineral resources (uranium, coal, gold, gypsum, iron, phosphates, tin) and petroleum resources lying beneath our soil, giving preference to a policy of diversification of partners. The proactive policy of the PDES is also based on the execution of important structural projects. In addition, completion of the Kandadji hydroelectric dam and the exploitation and processing of coal from Salkadamna represent a sign of hope for energy independence and the development of irrigation. Moreover, the launch during this period of the rail loop will provide a strong and lasting link between Niger and its neighbors and an historic opportunity to provide a permanent solution to the country’s isolation. Significant investments in the area of roadway structures will also contribute to this objective. The major challenges our country faces are clearly numerous and diverse. However, four (4) principal priority areas can be identified on which internal and external efforts should focus in order to provide the necessary supports. These are: (i) food security; (ii) security and governance; (iii) development of human capital; and (iv) infrastructure development. Effective implementation of the PDES could obviously be undermined by certain risks capable of hampering the achievement of anticipated results, particularly inclusive growth and improvements in the level of social development. For this reason, above and beyond the design of an economic policy document and efforts to mobilize resources, an effective mechanism is also needed to ensure efficient and optimal mobilization, effective and efficient consumption of the resources available to us, and a relevant reporting mechanism. Implementation of the PDES thus requires that we have an anticipatory, proactive, and innovative attitude, particularly in setting up a system of risk monitoring, follow-up, and evaluation based on a participatory (vertical and horizontal) approach capable of assessing outputs (goods and services delivered) and the extent to which sectoral effects are achieved under each of the PDES programs. It also requires that the various stakeholders demonstrate discipline and respect for the guidelines, strategies, and programs contained in the plan. For the domestic partners, this will mean in particular monitoring execution in order to avoid deviations that could undermine the guidelines, policies, and strategies used. For the technical and financial partners, this will involve ensuring, in accordance with the principles of the Paris Declaration, that their intervention strategies and programs are meticulously aligned with those of the PDES. Consequently, the monitoring and evaluation system will be an ongoing process of dialogue and consultation between the stakeholders and will focus on gathering information that is 2 reliable and useful for decision-making and carefully using that information to adopt and carry out any essential corrective measures. The PDES implementation monitoring mechanism will include: - A PDES Advisory Board presided over by the Prime Minister, Head of Government; - A Permanent Secretariat responsible for implementation of the PDES, under the direction of the Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development. It provides for and coordinates the proper performance of the various activities involved in implementing and monitoring the PDES. It is also responsible for promoting and coordinating procedures for formulating sectoral strategies and monitoring the implementation of recommendations from PDES performance and monitoring-evaluation reports. The Seventh Republic opens up a new era for our country with excellent prospects for progress. In the medium term, the 2012-2015 PDES will constitute the preferred implementing instrument and should allow us to translate into tangible reality these immense opportunities in terms of economic and social well-being in the life of each citizen of Niger, ensuring in particular a more equitable distribution of the benefits of growth, in such a way as to create favorable conditions for the emergence of a sizeable middle class in Niger. Among other goals, this is the ambition that sustains us. The 2012-2015 PDES gives us the means to achieve this and to build the Niger of the future together. /s/ MAHAMADOU ISSOUFOU President of the Republic of Niger Chief of State 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................ 15 CHAPTER I: DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF 1960-2010 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PERFORMANCE...................................................................... 18 I.1 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE........................................................................... 18 I.1.1 Economic situation from 1960 to 1990..................................................... 18 I.1.2 Economic and financial situation from 1990 to 2010.............................. 20 I.1.3 Diagnostic analysis of economic sectors.................................................. 28 I.1.3.1 Agriculture, forestry, and livestock sectors........................................ 28 I.1.3.2 Industrial sectors ............................................................................... 29 I.1.3.3 Artisanal trades................................................................................... 33 I.1.3.4 Tourism............................................................................................... 34 I.1.3.5 Culture................................................................................................ 34 I.1.3.6 Trade and transportation..................................................................... 35 I.1.4 Transportation and communication infrastructure……………………… 35 I.1.4.1 Transportation infrastructure ………………………………………. 35 I.1.4.2 Communication infrastructure ……………………………………... 37 I.2 SOCIAL CONDITIONS....................................................................................... 37 I.2.1 Demographic change................................................................................ 37 I.2.2 Poverty trends and profile......................................................................... 38 I.2.3 Household living conditions..................................................................... 41 I.2.3.1 Food security...................................................................................... 41 I.2.3.2 Urban standard of living, housing, and habitat................................... 42 I.2.3.3 Safe drinking water............................................................................. 43 I.2.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene........................................................................ 44 I.2.4 Levels of human development................................................................. 46 I.2.4.1 Education, teaching, vocational and technical training...................... 46 I.2.4.2 Health and nutrition............................................................................ 49 I.2.4.3 Protection and social advancement..................................................... 51 I.2.4.4 Labor and jobs.................................................................................... 54 I.2.4.5 Youth and sports................................................................................. 55 I.3 STATUS OF GOVERNANCE............................................................................. 56 I.3.1 Political governance.................................................................................. 56 I.3.2 Administrative governance....................................................................... 57 I.3.3 Local governance...................................................................................... 58 I.3.4 Economic governance............................................................................... 60 I.3.5 Legal and judicial governance.................................................................. 62 I.3.6 Defense and security................................................................................. 64 I.4 EVOLVING CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT............. 65 I.4.1 Regional integration................................................................................. 65 4 I.4.2 Regional development.............................................................................. 66 I.4.3 Environment............................................................................................. 67 I.4.4 Climate change......................................................................................... 68 I.5 MAJOR FINDINGS FROM REVIEWS OF THE DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS. 70 I.6 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES............................................................................ 71 CHAPTER 2: STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN......................................................................... 73 2.1 STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND RESULTS OF THE PDES.......................... 74 2.1.1 The vision................................................................................................. 74 2.1.2 Objective.................................................................................................. 74 2.1.3 Expected strategic results. ....................................................................... 74 2.2 STRATEGIC GUIDELINES OF THE PDES..................................................... 78 2.2.1 Pillar 1: Improving the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions................................................................................................ 85 2.2.2 Pillar 2: Creation of the conditions for sustainable, balanced, and inclusive development................................................................ 86 2.2.3 Pillar 3: Food security and sustainable agricultural development........... 88 2.2.4 Pillar 4: Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth......................................................................... 90 2.2.5 Pillar 5: Promotion of social development.............................................. 91 CHAPTER 3: SECTORAL STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS................................. 93 3.1 GENERAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS.............................................................. 93 3.1.1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP)............................................................... 95 3.1.2 Uses of the GDP....................................................................................... 97 3.1.3 Money and credit...................................................................................... 99 3.1.4 Government finance.................................................................................. 100 3.1.5 Balance of payments................................................................................. 103 3.1.6 Alternative growth scenarios.................................................................... 104 3.2 PILLAR 1: IMPROVING THE CREDIBILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF... 109 PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS 3.2.1 Democratic and civilian institutions are credible..................................... 109 3.2.2 Development is managed......................................................................... 110 3.2.3 Citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services.... 115 3.3 PILLAR 2: CREATION OF CONDITIONS FOR BALANCED AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT 3.3.1 Citizens’ aspirations to security are satisfied........................................... 125 3.3.2 Control of the determinants of population growth................................... 127 3.3.3 Sustainable management and preservation of environmental resources.. 130 5 3.3.4 Intra- and inter-regional disparities are mitigated.................................... 134 3.4 PILLAR 3: FOOD SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL...... 137 DEVELOPMENT: NIGERIENS ENSURE SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY 3.4.1 Increased agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish production................... 137 3.4.2 Rural and urban markets are regularly supplied with agricultural and..... 141 food products 3.4.3 Increased resilience of vulnerable groups to food crises and natural........ 142 disasters 3.4.4 Improved nutritional status of Nigeriens.................................................. 144 3.4.5 Coordination of sectoral policies, mobilization and accountability of..... 145 stakeholders are ensured 3.5 PILLAR 4: A COMPETITIVE AND DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY FOR............ 147 ACCELERATED AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH 3.5.1 Strong, sustained economic growth.......................................................... 147 3.5.2 Youth are incorporated into the economic network.................................. 163 3.6 PILLAR 5: PROMOTION OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: THE LEVEL OF.. 166 SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED 3.6.1 The health of the population is improved, especially for vulnerable....... 166 groups 3.6.2 Increased acquisition by the population of knowledge, skills, and values 170 necessary for a better life and sustainable development 3.6.3 Especially vulnerable population groups have better access to social...... 174 protection and employment measures and services 3.6.4 Gender inequality and inequity are reduced............................................. 177 3.6.5 Improved standard of living for urban and rural populations................... 179 3.6.6 Increasing equitable access of the population to drinking water and........ 183 .sanitation facilities 3.6.7 Professional, recreational sports............................................................... 186 3.6.8 Improved competitiveness of cultural enterprises.................................... 187 3.6.9 Youth are better protected against social ills and diseases....................... 189 CHAPTER 4: METHODS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PDES................................... 191 4.1 COST OF THE PDES.......................................................................................... 191 4.2 FINANCING OF THE PDES.............................................................................. 194 4.3 RISKS ANALYSIS............................................................................................. 196 4.4 METHODS FOR MONITORING-EVALUATION OF THE PDES................. 200 6 ANNEXES Annex 1: Macroeconomic frameworks..................................................................... 211 Annex 2: Results. Matrix........................................................................................... 214 Annex 3: Detailed budget of the entire PDES (millions of CFAF).......................... 258 Annex 4: Status of achievement of MDGs in Niger, (2011). ................................... 266 Annex 5: Map of Niger with human development indixes by region........................ 279 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Change in GDP between 2000 and 2011........................................................... 20 Table 2: Indicators of official development assistance.................................................... 22 Table 3: Table of financial operations............................................................................. 24 Table 4: Civil service staffing levels from 2005 to 2010................................................. 58 Table 5: PDES consistency with the Renaissance Program and the DPG....................... 80 Table 6: Strategic pillars and results of the PDES........................................................... 83 Table 7: Growth scenarios............................................................................................... 94 Table 8: Change in investment rates by economic agent from 2012 to 2015.................. 95 Table 9: Gross Domestic Product.................................................................................... 97 Table 10: Change in trade balance and non-factor services balance between 2011.......... 99 and 2015 Table 11: Balance between supply and use...................................................................... 99 Table 12: Money supply counterparts.............................................................................. 100 Table 13: Change in recurrent revenue.............................................................................. 101 Table 14: Change in government expenditure................................................................... 102 Table 15: Balance of payments.......................................................................................... 103 Table 16: Change in principal macroeconomic indicators in low growth scenario.......... 106 Table 17: Change in macroeconomic indicators in high growth scenario......................... 108 Table 18: Economic opportunities in the regions.............................................................. 136 Table 19: Summary of financing needs for entire PDES................................................... 191 Table 20: Sectoral breakdown of total PDES financing needs......................................... 193 Table 21: Capital expenditure budgets by scenario and budget execution rate................. 195 Table 22: Macroeconomic framework financing requirements......................................... 195 7 LIST OF GRAPHS Figure 1: Change in consumer prices and GDP deflator between 2000 and 2011............ 21 Figure 2: Change in the trade balance, its components, and the current account between 2000 and 2011..................................................................................... 27 Figure 3: Strategic results and pillars of the PDES 2012-2015......................................... 79 Figure 4: Predicted exports from 2011 to 2015................................................................. 94 Figure 5: Graphic breakdown of PDES financing requirements by pillar. ...................... 192 Figure 6: Institutional mechanism for PDES coordination and monitoring-evaluation.. 209 LIST OF BOXES Box 1: MDG situation in Niger.......................................................................................... 40 Box 2: The 3N Initiative: Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens............................................... 89 Box 3: Kandadji dam agricultural production program.................................................... 139 Box 4: Kandadji hydroelectric plant.................................................................................. 158 8 ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AD Development Association ADPRS Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy AGRHYMET Regional Center for Training in and Application of Agrometeorology and Operational Hydrology AIDS Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome ANASE National Agency on Access to Energy Services ANDDH Nigerien Association for the Defense of Human Rights ANFICT National Agency for the Financing of Local Government ANP Nigerien Press Agency ANPE Nigerien Employment Promotion Agency ANSITEF Analysis of the Situation of Children and Women APEIC Agency for the Promotion of Cultural Companies and Industries BCC Behavior Change Communication BCEAO Central Bank of West African States BNDA Niger Copyright Office BPW Building and Public Works BRVM Regional Stock Exchange CAFER Autonomous Fund for the Financing of Roadway Maintenance CARENI Niger Autonomous Retirement Fund CCA Food Crisis Unit CEDAW Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women CESOC Economic, Social, and Cultural Council CFAF CFA Franc CFDC Training Centers in Community Development CRC Convention on the Rights of the Child CNDP National Council for Political Dialogue CNDS National Commission for Social Dialogue CNEDD National Environmental Council for Sustainable Development CNME National Multisectoral Energy Framework CNODC China National Oil and Gas Development and Exploration Corporation CNSS National Social Security Fund CRGM Geological and Mining Research Center CSGDT Strategic Framework for Sustainable Land Management CSI Integrated Health Center CSM High Council of the Judiciary CSO Civil Society Organization CT Local Government [Collectivité Territoriale] DGPP Declaration of the Government’s Population Policy DPG General Policy Statement DPP Detailed Pre-Project EAMAC African School of Meteorology and Civil Aviation ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EITI Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative EMIG School of Mines, Industry, and Geology EN École Normale [teachers’ training college] ENBC National Survey on Budget and Household Consumption ENS École Normale Supérieure [advanced teachers’ training college] 9 FADA Youth Assemblies (“palaver tree�) FDI Foreign Direct Investment FDS Defense and Security Forces FEP Permanent Education Centers FNR National Retirement Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GAR Gross Attendance Rate GBV Gender-Based Violence GFCF Gross Fixed Capital Formation GFOT Government Financial Operations Table GHG Greenhouse Gas Gg Gigagram GIABA Inter-governmental Action Group against Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism GIS Geographic Information System Ha Hectare HACP High Authority for the Consolidation of Peace HAS Hydro-Agricultural Schemes HBP High Blood Pressure HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Countries HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HLI Highly Labor-Intensive I3N 3N Initiative: “Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens� IGA Income Generating Activities IEC Information, Education, and Communication IFAENF Institute for Training in Literacy and Non-Formal Education IMCI Integrated Management of Childhood Illness ICT Information and Communication Technology ICTE Information and Communication Technologies for Education IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management Km Kilometer kWp Kilowatt-peak LMD Licence [bachelors], Masters, Doctoral degree system LOSEN Law on Orientation of the Education System in Niger MCI/N Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Standardization MCPSP Ministry of Commerce and Private Sector Promotion MDG Millennium Development Goal MDRI Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative MESAO Renewable Energy Market of the Sahel and West Africa MF Ministry of Finance MP/AT-DC Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development MSP Ministry of Public Health MTEF Medium-Term Expenditure Framework NGO Non-Governmental Organization NIGELEC Nigerien Electricity Company NITT New Information and Telecommunication Technologies OPJ Judicial police officer PAP Priority Action Plan PDES Economic and Social Development Plan PDS Health Development Plan PEMFAR Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review 10 PFN National Forest Plan PICAG Interim Framework Program of Government Action PLHIV People Living with HIV PMCT Prevention of Mother-to-Child Transmission PN-AEPA National Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Program PNCD National Policy on Communication for Development PND National Decentralization Policy PNG National Gender Policy PNJ National Youth Policy PNME National Policy on Modernization of the State PPDE Ten-Year Education Development Program PRGFP Public Finance Management Reform Program PRASE Energy Services Access Reference Program PSIA Poverty and Social Impact Analysis PSS Sectoral Strategic Plan PUR Reference Urban Plan RBM Results-Based Management RPNC Refocused Prenatal Consultation SAFEM International Handicraft Exhibition for Women SAP Early Warning System SDAU Urban Planning and Development Scheme SDDCI Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy SDR Rural Development Strategy SGI Management and Intermediation Company SIM Market Information System SME Small and Medium Enterprises SMI Small and Medium Industries SNASEM National Strategy on Access to Modern Energy Services SNAT National Land Management Plan SNCC-SA National Coal Carbonization Company SNDU National Urban Development Strategy SONICHAR Nigerien Coal Company SOPAMIN State-owned mining company [Société de Patrimoine des Mines du Niger] SRAT Regional Land Management Schemes STIs Sexually Transmitted Infections TFP Technical and Financial Partner TOFE Table of Government Financial Operations TPE Ton of Oil Equivalent UDHR Universal Declaration of Human Rights UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VTET Vocational and Technical Education and Training WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union 11 INTRODUCTION Niger’s strategic choices, as expressed by the highest Nigerien authorities, seek to reconcile short-term imperatives in the search for solutions to urgent concerns and the need to adopt a long-term strategy capable of optimizing natural and human resources in order to promote sustainable economic and social development and inclusive growth. In order to ensure the effective implementation of these strategic choices, it is essential to ensure effective coordination of the various development programs and to be able to translate the political choices of Nigerien authorities into priority action plans, based on clear guidelines and consistent and integrated programs. It was in response to this need that the Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development was created, with a view to reviving the planning function. This renewed planning effort takes shape in the preparation of three (3) principal strategic documents, the “Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth Strategy� (SDDCI NIGER 2035), the Economic and Social Development Plan (2012-2015 PDES), and the Interim Framework Program of Government Action (2011-2012 PICAG). These three strategic planning tools are complementary and the government is committed to implementing them in such a way that they interact without each other synergistically, while ensuring dynamic linkage between short-, medium, and long-term programs. The 2012-2015 PDES is the implementing instrument for Niger’s Renaissance Program and takes into account the government’s General Policy Statement (DPG) presented by the Prime Minister, Head of Government. It is the sole frame of reference for interventions under the government’s medium-term development agenda and is aligned with the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). To this end, it capitalizes on goals and progress attained in implementing the Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (ADPRS), the sectoral strategies, and ministerial action plans. The process of preparing the document followed a participatory approach involving all stakeholders. To this end, an institutional mechanism was set up consisting of the Inter-Ministry Committee on Strategic Planning, the State/Technical and Financial Partners Committee (CAD/OCDE), the National Technical Committee, twelve (12) sectoral and thematic working groups, eight (8) regional committees, and a support committee. The plan was developed based on the work done by the sectoral/thematic groups and regional committees. It also took into account the results of the mid-course evaluation of the Accelerated Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (ADPRS), and other specific studies. The process was guided by the quest for strong consensus around broad policy outlines in an effort to achieve the kind of ownership that successfully involves stakeholders in preparation of the plan, and will facilitate the implementation of the PDES. It has afforded another opportunity to strengthen dialogue between the administration (central and decentralized), civil society, and the development partners regarding the sectoral policies implemented. 12 These tasks also provided a unique opportunity to review most of the sectoral policies, to study the causes and consequences of poverty as well as the obstacles to reducing it, and to identify Niger’s current potential and the population’s priorities for ensuring strong and sustainable growth. These tasks were carried out in four principal phases. The first phase addressed the diagnostic analysis, encompassing sectoral and regional analyses and the mid-term review of PDES implementation. The tasks performed during this first phase were validated by the National Technical Committee. The second phase was devoted to formulation of the strategic guidelines of the PDES. These guidelines were defined based on the diagnostic and on the eight (8) pillars of the Renaissance Program: (i) building strong, credible, and sustainable democratic institutions; (ii) ensuring the security of persons and property throughout the country; (iii) relaunching the economy and promoting social development through reforms, measures, and the planning of public investments; (iv) ensuring food security through the “3N� initiative of Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens; (v) ensuring access to safe drinking water for all through rehabilitation and construction of urban, rural, and pastoral hydraulic structures; (vi) developing infrastructures and power for large-scale roads, rural paths, hydraulic, electrical, and railroad projects; (vii) significantly improving social indicators (education and health), and (viii) creating jobs for youth. The third phase consisted of formulating sectoral strategies and programs as well as estimating the costs of actions. Thus, eighty-six (86) programs were defined. The formulation of the programs is based on rigorous prioritization of actions. The fourth phase addressed the establishment of the PDES results chain with the definition of forty-three (43) sectoral effects and about sixty (60) results indicators. This document, the product of this collaborative analysis, consists of four chapters: The first chapter assesses two decades of development, analyzes the situation in each sector, draws lessons, and identifies the major challenges to be faced. The second chapter defines the strategic results and pillars of the PDES over the period 2012-2015, ensuring that its vision is based on the guidelines of the Renaissance Program and sectoral priorities. The five strategic pillars, which form the foundation of the PDES, focus on: (i) improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions; (ii) creation of the conditions for the sustainability of balanced and inclusive development; (iii) food security and the development of sustainable agriculture; (iv) a competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth; and (v) promotion of social development. 13 The third chapter deals with the macroeconomic framework, sectoral strategies, and sectoral programs. The sectoral strategies are a breakdown of the ten strategic results as follows: (i) citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services; (ii) democratic and republican institutions are credible; (iii) the preservation and management of environmental resources are strengthened; (iv) the management of development is facilitated; (v) citizens’ aspirations for security are satisfied; (vi) the levers of demographic growth are controlled; (vii) Nigeriens ensure sustainable food security; (viii) economic growth is strong and sustained; (ix) young people are integrated into the economy; and (x) the level of social development is significantly improved. The programs consist of a series of a priority actions contributing to the achievement of a result. The fourth chapter deals with the methods for implementing the PDES through the financing scheme, analysis of risks, and monitoring and evaluation methods, particularly the results matrix, implementation monitoring and evaluation reports. To ensure proper monitoring/evaluation, an institutional mechanism is planned and based on the frameworks of dialogue, organization of reviews to improve accountability, a matrix of measures, and a list of indicators for measuring performance. The risks that could undermine the success of the PDES relate, inter alia, to weak acceptance on the part of stakeholders, natural disasters, the international and regional environment, the sociopolitical situation, and the implementation, financing, and coordination of assistance. 14 CHAPTER I: DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS OF 1960-2010 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL PERFORMANCE 1 This chapter seeks to perform a diagnostic analysis of the economic and social situation and the status of Niger’s government, but also to rank the major challenges the country faces, taking into account constraints, difficulties, areas of potential, and resources that can be mobilized. This analysis, based on the contributions of various participants at both the central and regional levels, seeks to determine the key strategic objectives and guidelines for accelerating the pace of economic and social progress, in order to respond to the population’s aspirations for development and emancipation. This diagnostic analysis consists of four broad areas. The first covers economic performance, examined according to the principal sectors. The second analyzes the social development situation. The third addresses the situation of the various aspects of governance. The fourth addresses the conditions for sustainable development. This chapter closes with a summary of the principle issues and challenges that form the basis for the formulation of development guidelines, objectives, and strategies. I.1 ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE I.1.1. Economic situation from 1960 to 1990 The review of economic performance is based on analysis of the macroeconomic framework, conditions in the sectors that drive growth, and economic infrastructure. The economic history of independent Niger has gone through three major periods: A rural economy from 1960 to 1975. During this period, Niger’s economy was dominated by the rural sector, with only six percent of the population residing in urban areas. About 60 percent of GDP came from the agricultural sector and administration represented seven to eight percent. The very rural nature of the economy was perfectly symbolized by its low degree of monetarization. In 1965, the country’s money supply was 7.4 billion CFAF, or about nine percent of GDP. Peanuts were the engine of Niger’s monetized economy throughout these years, on a par with their importance in terms of exports (50% to 70%), farmers’ incomes, and modern trade through the Niger Peanut Corporation (SONARA), and informal trade with peanut buyers. The uranium boom from 1975 to 1982. Starting in 1976, climate conditions recovered and grain harvests were again in line with needs. However, this period was primarily marked by the start-up of uranium mining. It began in 1971 with the production of about two billion CFAF but expanded starting in 1975 with production of 11 billion CFAF, reaching its maximum of 102 billion CFAF in 1982. Uranium represents nearly three-quarters of exports. 1 The analysis covers data available on the period. 15 This rapid growth was due to the combination of the larger quantities produced, increasing from 400 tons in 1971, to 1,300 tons in 1975, to 4,250 tons in 1982, and sales prices boosted by the petroleum shock of 1973. The sales price of Nigerien uranium thus went from 5,000 CFAF per kilo in 1974 to 24,500 CFAF per kilo in 1979. This new resource radically transformed the givens of Niger’s economy: GDP increased over the period in constant terms by an average of 20 percent per year. Exports grew by 28 percent a year, and tax revenues grew by 20 percent. Uranium mining produced significant knock-on effects on the rest of the economy and the added value of the modern sector increased by 25 percent a year. By the end of this period, the country’s productive structure had changed. The agricultural sector represented no more than 40 percent of GDP, the modern sector accounted for 20 percent, and administration for 8 percent. The economy was significantly monetized and the money supply represented 12.5 percent of GDP. Grain harvests were improved and diversified, the growing of cowpeas developed and took the place of peanuts as an export crop. An economy undergoing adjustment from 1982 to 1990. Starting in 1982, Niger undertook a structural adjustment policy intended on the one hand to contain domestic and external imbalances and on the other to control supply-side responses, and thus resume growth on expanded and strengthened foundations. This policy was to be based on cost control and enhanced resource mobilization. It also included reforms designed to strengthen the role of the private sector in the economy and restructure the parapublic sector. However, this adjustment occurred in an unfavorable environment World demand for uranium was weakening, with Nigerien production amounting to 4,250 tons in 1982 holding steadily below 3,000 tons in the late 1980s. In addition, the resumption of demand for uranium caused a sharp decline in prices. Increasingly, rainfall was generally poor and between 1984 and 1990 five out of seven grain harvests represented losses, with the grain deficit tending to become structural. However, the drought of 1984 was the jumping-off point that energized the off-season crops that now account for annual production of about 100,000 tons of grain equivalent. The period saw a decline in real GDP of close to 9 percent or an annual decline of 4.6% in real GDP per capita. The regression is still greater in terms of investment, the volume of which contracted by 7.8 percent per year. Imports also fell by 5.3 percent per year and the volume of exports fell by 3.5 percent. These developments led to new changes in the structure of the economy. In 1990, the modern commercial sector represented only 13 percent of GDP. Agriculture represented about 40 percent of GDP, the informal sector represented 33 percent, the modern commercial sector represented 13 percent, and administration represented 13 percent. 16 This retrospective analysis makes it clear that whenever the political leaders adopt a proactive economic policy, the results in terms of growth and the standard of living are clearly positive. This is because the national economy is still in developing stage where investments in infrastructures and major public works produce significant returns in terms of these variables. I.1.2. Economic and financial situation from 1990 to 2010 I.1.2.1 Real sector performance During the period 1990-2010, the Nigerien economy recorded average growth on the order of 3.8 percent in real terms, or less than 1 percent in terms of per capita GDP. This average obscures significant variations, particularly in terms of agricultural sector performance. Table 1: Change in GDP between 2000 and 2011 (in billions of CFAF and as a %) 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 GDP at market prices 1,277.9 1,770.0 1,906.8 1,966.8 2,155.4 2,140.0 2,316.6 3,004. 4 Informal sector 66.8% 67.8% 68.3% 71.9% 73.2% 69.2% 70.7% 68.9% contribution to GDP Real GDP growth rate at -2.6% 7.4% 5.6% 3.1% 9.6% -0.7% 8.2% 2.1% market prices Real GDP growth rate at -2.9% 7.4% 6.1% 3.1% 9.5% -1.3% 8.5% 1.2% factor cost Primary sector GDP -8.3% 13.6% 10.3% 4.6% 16.2% -9.5% 16.3% -3.1% Secondary sector GDP -0.3% 0.5% 3.2% -1.7% 3.6% 11.2% 8.5% 4.3% Tertiary sector GDP 1.7% 3.6% 2.6% 2.9% 3.6% 5.6% 0.1% 5.7% Informal sector GDP 4.2% 8.0% 6.5% 2.8% 11.9% -4.8% 10.8% -0.5% Market sector GDP 2.7% 8.0% 6.0% 2.8% 10.7% -1.7% 9.9% 1.0% Source: MF/INS/Economic Accounts of the Nation, 2011 Early Accounts, March 2012. Between 1990 and 1999, the tertiary sector represented 46.2 percent of GDP compared to 36.5 percent for the primary sector and 17.3 percent for the secondary sector. The decade between 2000 and 2010 saw a relative increase in the primary sector’s contribution to GDP of 42.2 percent, to the detriment of the tertiary sector that stood at 40 percent. The secondary sector’s contribution stabilized during the same period. The principal sources of growth were agriculture and trade. The share of value added in each broad sector remained stable. Moreover, GDP was marked by a strong preponderance of the informal sector, which contributed an average of more than 67 percent over the course of the period 1990-2010. Apart from the informal nature of the GDP and the predominance of the primary sector, the weakness and volatility of Niger’s economic growth is due on another level to a business climate 17 that is unfavorable to private sector development and more generally to the Nigerien economy’s lack of competitiveness. The underlying factors include: (i) a weak institutional framework; (ii) limited infrastructures; (iii) weak human capital (health, primary education, higher education, and continuing education); (iv) narrow and non-competitive goods and labor markets combined with a weak industrial sector, an undeveloped financial market, and the absence of technological innovations. Inflation has generally been relatively well controlled in accordance with related community provisions (BCEAO monetary policy and the WAEMU convergence pact). Following fluctuations and sharp increases between 1991 and 1999, inflation receded between 2001 and 2010, with an average level of 3.3 percent. Final demand was characterized by a strong propensity toward household consumption and a weak propensity toward savings. Final consumption during the period 1990-2010 averaged 89.7 percent of GDP. Private consumption (75.1% of GDP over the period 1990-2010) grew at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent. The result was a weak domestic savings rate that went from 7.6 percent in 1990, to 5.9 percent in 1999, and then to 10 percent in 2011. Figure 1: Change in consumer prices and GDP deflator between 2000 and 2011 (as a %) ____ CT consumer price index for Niamey households ____ GDP deflator (inflation rate) Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) averaged 14.8 percent of GDP during the period 1990-2010. This percentage is inadequate in comparison with levels for the developing countries, on the order of 25 percent to 30 percent of GDP. This is due in part to weak domestic savings and foreign direct investment (FDI). The import rate averaged 32.8 percent of GPO over the period of analysis. It was 23.6 percent before devaluation (between 1990 and 1993). This development reflected essential imports (food 18 products, petroleum products, and intermediate goods) as well as increased imports of capital goods associated with the mining sector. The export rate averages 20.2 percent of GDP. This rate, which averaged 16.5 percent between 1990 and 1993, stood at 21.1 percent after devaluation (between 1994 and 2010). The major challenge is to promote strong and sustainable economic growth, to improve the rate of investment, particularly foreign investment, as well as the country’s external position in order to create the necessary conditions for sustainable and inclusive development, on the assumption of an increase in the domestic savings rate. I.1.2.2. Public finances The overall fiscal balance consistently showed a deficit for the entire 1990-2010 period. The deficit was primarily financed with external resources in the form of grants and loans but also through exceptional loans. The contribution of foreign assistance to GDP actually reached 50 percent in 2006 compared to 5.3 percent in 2011, as a result of debt relief within the framework of the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI) and the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) program. Table 2: Indicators of Official Development Assistance (in millions of US$ and as a %) Years 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Gross) foreign aid as a % of 8.6 10.9 50.0 8.6 7.5 6.3 6.0 5.3 GDP (Net) foreign aid as a % of 4.3 9.6 11.7 8.0 6.8 5.7 5.5 4.7 GDP (Gross) foreign aid in millions 147.9 370.1 1,817.0 369.5 405.0 336.3 339.2 336.9 of US$ (Net) foreign aid in millions of 73.1 325.1 424.2 340.9 369.9 304.1 309.7 303.2 US$ Source: MPATDC/DGP/Report on Development Cooperation, 2010-2011 Total revenues excluding grants averaged 10.6 percent of GDP over the period 1990-2010. Despite the government’s efforts, the tax ratio, which had been increasing slowly since the early 2000s, reached 13.3 percent in 2010 but still remained below the community norm (17%). The tax ratio is low because agriculture, accounting for 30% of GDP, is not taxed; because informal activities, accounting for 70% of the economy, predominate; and because the performance of the tax authority is inadequate. Until 2004, the structure of the Table of Government Financial Operations (TOFE) for total expenditures and net lending was characterized by the predominance of current expenses to the 19 detriment of investment expenses. Starting in that year, thanks to economic and financial programs put into effect, current expenditures were relatively controlled. The most recent diagnostic analysis of public financial management in Niger was conducted within the context of the Ministry of Finance’s formulation of the Public Finance Management Reform Program (2011-2014 PRGFP). This analysis uncovered the following major constraints that continue to be concerns for the PDES: 1. For revenues: (i) a narrow and volatile resource base (tax revenues averaging less than 11 percent of GDP over the period 2003-2008); (ii) limited ability to manage additional flows of mining and petroleum revenues (managing changing prices and revenues); and (iii) the delay in implementing the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) is reflected in the need to strengthen transparency in the management of revenues. 2. In terms of expenditure: (i) sizeable gaps between actual government expenditures and appropriations approved (budget credibility problem); (ii) ineffective public spending in comparison with comparable countries in the subregion; (iii) weak linkage between national and sectoral strategic priorities and the budget; (iv) the lack of a public investment management system; and (v) inadequate consideration of macroeconomic constraints in sectoral medium term expenditure frameworks (MTEFs). 3. The public finance management system: (i) the performance of Niger’s financial management system is below the average for the WAEMU countries; (ii) excessive use of special procedures that undermine the efficacy of public spending; (iii) the lack of regular production and comprehensive and reliable reporting of budgetary accounts; (iv) weak operation of the General Treasury Directorate and the Government Accounting Office and weak cash management; and (v) inadequate internal and external control of the budget (General Directorate of Financial Control, Court of Accounts). 4. Public procurement: (i) the public procurement code is not in line with WAEMU directives; (ii) persistent conflicts of interest; and (iii) weak internal controls and no audit of public procurement. The major challenge is to implement the 2011-2014 program of reforms in the area of public finance, particularly to improve the predictability and mobilization of tax and non-tax revenues, manage the expenditure chain better, and promote economic and financial governance. 20 Table 3: Table of Financial Operations (in billions of CFAF) Years 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total revenue and grants 455.6 584.0 474.5 515.8 627.9 Budgetary revenue 309.0 442.0 363.6 385.6 514.8 Tax revenue 233.2 281.1 343.0 361.7 485.9 Taxes on income and profits 48.7 67.7 102.3 86.9 96.5 Taxes on goods and services 73.4 79.5 99.0 109.9 162.1 Taxes on foreign trade 100.7 110.7 116.6 135.0 192.4 Other taxes 10.4 23.2 25.1 29.9 34.9 Non-tax revenues and special treasury 75.8 160.9 20.6 23.9 28.5 account (CST) revenues Grants 146.6 142.0 110.9 130.2 113.5 Current grants 27.6 35.7 5.9 47.2 56.5 Capital grants 119.0 106.3 105.0 83.0 57.0 Total expenditures and net lending 476.1 547.9 609.9 584.0 691.9 Current expenditures 199.6 264.1 276.5 346.1 461.3 Wages and salaries 72.2 83.8 93.6 103.2 141.0 Transfers and subsidies 58.3 102.1 97.2 135.5 197.3 Equipment and supplies 61.7 63.4 83.9 94.2 115.4 Other current expenditures 7.4 14.8 1.8 13.2 7.6 Capital expenditures 236.6 247.1 309.1 217.8 206.0 Exceptional expenditures 39.9 36.7 24.3 20.1 24.6 Current balance 109.4 175.9 87.1 39.5 44.3 Overall balance excluding grants -167.1 -105.8 -246.3 -198.4 -177.5 Overall balance -20.5 36.2 -135.4 -68.2 -64.0 Underlying budget balance 63.3 117.0 -58.4 -10.7 1.4 Change in outstanding payments -8.4 -15.7 -13.9 -12.4 -1.9 Cash basis overall balance -35.3 20.5 -149.3 -80.6 -65.9 Financing of cash basis overall balance 35.3 -20.5 149.3 80.6 65.9 External financing 53.0 25.7 38.2 27.2 39.6 Internal financing -17.7 -46.2 111.1 53.4 26.3 Source: MF/DRF. 21 I.1.2.3 Public debt Outstanding public debt nearly tripled between 1990 and 1999, increasing from 337.47 billion CFAF to 912.41 billion CFAF, primarily due to the effect of devaluation of the CFA franc. The overall stock of public debt went from 1.12998 trillion CFAF in 2005 to 583.6 billion CFAF in 2010. This change is basically due to the dynamic of external debt, which went from 956.95 billion CFAF in 2005 to 494.91 billion in 2010. The decline in the stock of debt in 2006 was due to the cancellation of debt resulting from implementation of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC) and the Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative (MDRI). In contrast, the gradual increase starting in 2007 is due to external disbursements associated with implementation of development projects and programs. As of year-end 2011, the stock of external public debt was estimated to be 629.41 billion CFAF. As regards domestic debt, in 1999 the government formed a committee to track payment arrears for fiscal year 1999 and prior years. It then adopted a plan to clear this debt. In 2005, the stock of domestic debt amounted to 172.03 billion CFAF. This amount basically consisted of claims from government suppliers, bank debt, and salary arrears. The stock of domestic debt is clearly declining. It went from 172.03 billion CFAF in 2005 to 88.75 billion CFAF in 2010, thus reflecting the government’s effort to clear domestic arrears. In late December 2011, domestic public debt was 68.52 billion. The total stock of public debt stood at 697.93 billion in 2011. Thanks to the implementation of these initiatives, Niger’s nominal external debt fell from more than 90 percent of GDP to about 15 percent in late 2009, and 17.5 percent in 2010. To maintain these gains with implications for the development of natural resources, debt management was strengthened. In connection with the challenge of maintaining macroeconomic equilibria, the issue here is to develop and implement a national policy on the subject of sustainable debt. I.1.2.4 Money and credit Overall liquidity in the economy has consistently expanded since 2000, increasing from 103.2 billion CFAF in 2000 to 576.3 billion CFAF in 2010. During the period 1990-2010, the development of the money supply was affected by the development of domestic credit and credits to the economy, while the government’s commitment to the banking system was relatively controlled. BCEAO monetary policy, which prioritizes inflation rate monitoring and intervention through interest rates, is quite restrictive of economic activity in general. Thus, the distribution of loans within the economy gives preference to short-term loans at the expense of long-term loans, indicating weak bank participation in the financing of productive activities and activities that create added value. In addition, the high interest rates that follow BCEAO refinancing rates, at 22 about 3.25 percent in 2011, do not encourage investment. Monetary integration also makes it difficult to devise monetary policy suited to each economic policy, which entails a certain degree of divergence between the monetary policy pursued by the BCEAO and Niger’s economic policy. Moreover, poor sectoral distribution of loans results in the stagnation of activities in certain sectors, and this was to some extent the reason for adopting the 3N Initiative. As of December 31, 2010, the Nigerien financial sector included only ten (10) commercial banks and one financial institution, five (5) insurance companies, two (2) social security organizations, one management and intermediation company (SGI-Niger), one subsidiary of the Regional Stock Exchange (BRVM), and twenty-four (24) authorized exchange bureaus. In addition, the microfinance penetration rate is low (1.1 client for every 1,000 inhabitants compared to 7.4 clients for every 1,000 inhabitants for the WAEMU zone). Total banking institution assets amounted to about 660 billion CFAF. From 2005 to 2009, Niger saw strong growth rates in bank loans (148%), bank deposits (97.6%), and total bank balances (124%). The monetization rate went from 8.06 percent in 2000 to 20.84 percent in 2010, but remains below the African average of 40 percent. Niger’s insurance sector is under-developed; only four insurance companies and one life-insurance company operate in the country. The major challenge is to increase the use of banking services in the economy and promote loans to the economy in order to develop production and marketing activities. I.1.2.5 Balance of payments The current account deficit has clearly worsened since 2006 due to the effect of unfavorable change in the trade deficit. Export development since 1990 indicates a predominance of mining products (uranium and gold) and agricultural and livestock products (particularly cattle, onion, and cowpeas). Uranium, the principal export product, was nearly stagnant between 1990 and 2006, before rebounding in 2007. Imports basically consist of capital goods (35.7%) as well as food, energy, and intermediate goods. While the increase in the value of imports following the purchase of capital goods consists of essential expenditures, the increase caused by rising prices for food products represents a significant medium- and long-term challenge that underscores the urgency of increasing agricultural production to ensure food security. 23 Figure 2: Change in the trade balance, its components, and the current account between 2000 and 2011 (in billions of CFAF) ____ CURRENT ACCOUNT ____ Trade balance ____ FOB exports ____ FOB imports With regard to the capital and financial operations account, the balance showed a notable increase of 63.6 billion CFAF between 2004 and 2005, followed by 140.1 billion CFAF from 2008 to 2009. This change is basically the result of improvement in the financial operations account, all the more so since the balance in the capital account deteriorated between 2005 and 2009. This favorable development is due to the benefits of the HIPC and MDRI initiatives, the signing bonus on the petroleum production sharing contract, and a significant increase in FDI between 2001 and 2009. The challenge is to significantly reduce the current account deficit to the level of the balance of payments. This is linked to the challenge of promoting local industries and private investments by taking advantage of the country’s comparative advantages and an improved business climate. In conclusion, regarding the economic situation, economic and financial conditions are unfavorable, the macroeconomic situation shows weak and inadequate growth accompanied by a widening of internal and external deficits and significant dependence on assistance. The aforementioned debt relief was achieved solely thanks to the HIPC and MDRI initiatives. This situation calls for actions to monitor the macroeconomic framework, including tracking the indicators of public and external finances and debt management. 24 I.1.3 Diagnostic analysis of economic sectors I.1.3.1 Agriculture, forestry, and livestock sectors The agriculture, forestry, and livestock sectors represent the country’s primary source of economic activity. They occupy more than 80 percent of the workforce. Over the period 2007-2009, the contribution these sectors made to the national economy is estimated to average 42.8 percent of GDP, with nearly 25 percent for the agriculture subsector, 12 percent for livestock, and close to 4.5 percent for forestry and fisheries. Over the period 2006-2010, added values in these subsectors grew by an average of 9.5 percent, 2.1 percent, and 6.3 percent, respectively. However, these sectors were highly dependent on climate factors, which limited economic growth and affected their sustainability. These sectors are handicapped by the reduced productivity of agricultural, livestock, forestry, wildlife, and fisheries ecosystems, due to limited control of water, limited organization of producers, limited access to equipment and inputs, and the decline in soil fertility. Other factors include difficulties associated with the weak structure of marketing channels, inadequate storage facilities, and limited ability to process agricultural products. In agriculture, water mobilization and management remain weak as evidenced by operators’ failure to adhere to the irrigation schedule of the Hydro-Agricultural Schemes (HAS). In addition, inadequate advisory support for producers, poor governance of producers’ organizations, and persistent land disputes should be noted. Limited access to equipment and inputs is associated both with producers’ limited buying power and inadequate supply, while the decline in soil fertility is due to overuse, erosion, unsuitable growing practices, and poor utilization of inputs. The consequence of this situation is inadequate agricultural production, which represents a major constraint on all medium- and long-term development. Increased agricultural production calls for a certain number of reforms, including significant efforts to modernize production techniques and ways to mobilize water. In the area of livestock, reduced productivity is due to the weakness of the research and extension system as reflected in inadequate and poor utilization of existing and/or innovative technologies, the persistence of certain animal diseases, and insufficient livestock feed. This reduced productivity is also due to an inefficient institutional and organizational environment and inadequate human resources in the sector. Declining productivity in forestry, wildlife, and fisheries ecosystems is due to the progressive loss of biodiversity, poor resource utilization practices, and inadequate implementation of sectoral reforms. The major areas of potential that could provide the basis for development of agricultural, forestry, and livestock activity include estimated land resources of 15 million hectares, only 7 million of which are being used; an estimated 270,000 to 330,000 hectares of land that could 25 be irrigated, or approximately 1.8 percent to 2.2 percent of the total area of arable land; promising subsectors (onion, tiger nuts or souchet, sesame, pepper, etc.); a large and varied number of livestock , amounting to more than 36 million heads, all species combined and free of foot-and-mouth disease;2 the traditional know-how of cattle raisers that has made it possible to develop marginal species;3 and the proximity of subregional markets. Note should also be made of significant fisheries potential (more than 400,000 hectares of fresh water and numerous hill dams and fish ponds), rich and varied biodiversity with 2,274 plant species and 3,200 animal species, significant wildlife, fishery, and bee resources, significant water resources, particularly a hydrographic network providing an annual average of more than 30 billion cubic meters of water, 97 percent of which comes from the Niger river and its right bank tributaries.4 There are also more than 1,000 natural pools, including about 170 permanent pools and 142 small dams for a total of nearly 420 million cubic meters. In addition, there is significant potential in groundwater, a very small portion of which is used to meet mining activity needs in the north of the country, provide drinking water, and irrigate crops. In effect, groundwater is estimated to represent more than 2.5 billion cubic meters of renewable water resources and 2 trillion in non-renewable resources. The development of these resources is still difficult because of the extreme depth of the productive water table, particularly in the regions of Tahoua, Tillabery, North Maradi, and Zinder. Furthermore, several achievements in the area of both national and regional research represent significant potential. The transfer to producers of new technologies related to plant and animal production, environmental protection, and natural resource management mean that substantially improved production could be achieved in each of these sectors. The major challenge is to contribute to Niger’s sustainable food and nutritional security in the wake of the 3N Initiative, due to strengthening of the agriculture, forestry, and livestock subsectors at all points in the value chain (production, processing, conservation, marketing). I.1.3.2 Industrial sectors a. Extractive industries The GDP of extractive activities recorded estimated annual growth of about 9 percent over the period 2007-2011. Uranium, gold, coal, and limestone are the principal products being mined. Uranium production grew from 3,153 tons in 2007 to 4,300 tons in 2011. Gold fell from 2,625 to 2 According to the World Organization for Animal Health, Niger was declared provisionally free of this disease in late 1999. It obtained its status as a disease-free country in 2003. 3 WISP/UICN (2006). 4 Source: Master plan for development and management of water resources, 2000. 26 1,446 kilograms. This downward trend for gold of nearly 45% between 2007 and 2011 is due to natural considerations associated with the low grade of the deposit being mined during this period. The search for oil in Niger began in 1958. In January 2007, a new oil code was adopted with a view to making the conditions for oil exploration and production much more attractive. In June 2008, the government signed a production sharing contract for the Agadem block with the Chinese company, CNODC, which provides significant infrastructure within the context of this contract. Operations began in November 2011. In terms of spillover effects with respect to the trade balance, petroleum and mining exports should more than double between 2011 and 2016, when the integrated oil project (deposit, refinery,5 and pipeline) becomes a reality in 2012. This will have some impact on Niger’s economic growth and on a significant reduction in poverty, assuming good governance in the management of the resulting resources. This sector has a solid institutional framework, particularly the Geological and Mining Research Center (CRGM), the state-owned mining company (Société de Patrimoine des Mines du Niger— SOPAMIN), and support opportunities. However, there is a major constraint linked to limited knowledge regarding mining potential due to undeveloped geological and mining research, which should now be revived. Other constraints involve poor management of the mining environment (due to a lack of supervision instruments) and inadequate utilization of mining resources. Niger, the second largest producer of uranium in the world, does not utilize this wealth to meet its own electricity production requirements. The electrical power factor still represents a significant limitation on industrial production, agricultural modernization, the competitiveness of the tertiary sector, and improved living conditions for the population. Other factors are inadequate management of the sector due to weak coordination, the lack of synergies among stakeholders, limited collaboration among environmental and mining services, limited involvement of technical mining services in the management of mining resources, a lack of planning in the area of geological and mining research, and limited institutional and human capacities. This situation led to adoption of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). Niger has five large provinces rich in mineral resources with varied mineralization rates and significant deposits. Uranium deposits estimated at 280,000 tons were identified in the Agadez region. Proven reserves6 of coal in Niger exceed 80 million tons, with 60 million tons in the 5 Niger became independent in 2012 in terms of vehicle fuel since the domestic requirement is 7,000 barrels per day while the Zinder refinery produces 20,000 barrels. Source: Ministry of Mines and Energy, 2010. 6 27 region of Tahoua at Salkadamna, 10 million tons at Anou Araren, and significant deposits at the Solomi site in the Agadez region. The major challenge in the area of extractive industries is to improve the mining and petroleum sector’s contribution to the national economy and strengthen governance in the management of resources. b. Manufacturing industries This sector accounted for less than two percent of GDP during the period 1990-2004. About 68 companies operate in the country, primarily in Niamey (80%), with agri-food processing being the predominant branch of activity. Total jobs in these industries fell from 1,194 in 1990 to 1,022 in 1995 before increasing from 2,117 in 2004 to 4,039 in 2010. Products in this sector are characteristically uncompetitive due to the high cost of industrial production and a weak institutional and organizational framework. This situation is itself the result of poorly controlled factor costs, particularly for raw materials; unsuitable equipment, transportation, and energy; and the lack of strategic monitoring. In addition, there are other obstacles such as limited regulation of the sector (standards are unavailable or not followed) and inadequate training in the area of standardization. With appropriate support, these obstacles can be overcome, making it possible to promote the development of an industrial sector that would create strong added value and jobs. The challenge is then to increase the manufacturing sector’s contribution to the national economy and to improve the competitiveness of manufacturing industries. c. Energy Based on 2009 data, 83 percent of the country’s energy requirements are covered by traditional energy sources (wood fuel, agricultural wastes) and 17 percent are covered by modern power sources. Per capita energy consumption, which is 0.14 TPE (Ton of Oil Equivalent) is the lowest in the world. In terms of distribution by type of energy as shown in 2004, there is a notable predominance of biomass at 87 percent, with modest consumption of petroleum products at 11 percent, and electricity at 2 percent. The use of coal is negligible at 0.03 percent.7 The percentage of the population with access to electricity went from 22.2 percent in 2007 to 23.6 percent in 2009,8 with a significant disparity between rural areas (0.5% in 2008) and urban areas (45% in 2008). However, the impact of access to electricity is important, particularly for 7 Source: SIE-Niger 2005 according to final SNASEM Report, January 2006. 8 Midterm review, ADPRS 2008-2012, January 2012, page. 17. 28 improving household living conditions, especially for vulnerable populations, young people in particular. For example, several reviews of the poverty reduction strategy (PRS)9 have indicated that economic activities that are highly effective in empowering vulnerable populations (women, young people) can develop at a spectacular pace in rural communities that have benefited from of a rural electrification program. These activities basically consist of convenience stores, restoration, mechanics, and soldering. Other forms of energy, particularly renewables like solar and wind power, are currently being explored. Solar energy is used particularly for pumping, irrigation, telecommunications, communications, lighting, refrigeration, etc. Its use is growing and installed power went from 240 kWp in 1993, to 416 kWp in 2000, and to 1,112 kWp in 2007. The production of safe drinking water continues to be inadequate although the needs coverage increased from 54.2 percent in 2001 to 64.3 percent in 2010. In 2006 Niger adopted the National Strategy on Access to Modern Energy Services (SNASEM), which seeks in particular to give at least half of the population access to modern energy services by 2015, based to a large extent on renewable energy sources for cooking food, pumping water, rural electrification, equipping schools and health centers. The objectives of this strategy are: (I to provide all of Niger’s population with access to modern cooking fuels by 2015 (coal, butane gas, kerosene, solar cookers and ovens; (ii) to equip 100 percent of communities with a population between 1,000 and 2,000 inhabitants with engine power in 2015 (multifunction platforms, engine power for handicrafts, for the management of irrigated lands, and water points); and (iii) to bring the electricity coverage rate of the population to 66 percent by 2015.10 The SNASEM is not yet operational but a certain number of programs have put renewable energy at the center of their concerns. Thus, the Ten-Year Program for Educational Development is considering electrification using solar power for villages to supply primary and second schools. Similarly, the National Communication Plan, which seeks to improve the new communication technologies penetration rate by increasing community call centers and the coverage of community radios and television, is based on solar energy as the primary source of power. The Health Development Plan seeks to increase access to modern power services in order to offer better quality care and, to this end, it has provided for the use of solar electrification in integrated health centers. 9 2009 Annual ADPRS review. 10 Ministry of Mines and Energy—National strategy on access to modern energy services for Nigerien populations (SNASEM)—January 2006. 29 The weak performance of the energy sector is due to dysfunction in the institutional and regulatory framework and to limited promotion and utilization of national energy resources. However, Niger has opportunities in this area as shown by the partners’ involvement in financing for this sector, the surpluses that are transferred to NIGELEC by those who produce their own power (case of SORAZ and the future Kandadji Dam), and the prospects for the installation of petrochemical industries. In addition, there is regional cooperation in the context of the 4,188 kilometer Nigeria-Niger-Algeria pipeline for exporting African gas to Europe, expected to launch in 2015, and the construction of an Agadem-Chad-Cameroon pipeline for exporting Nigerien crude, which was to launch in 2012. These areas of potential and the country’s political commitment may allow Niger to ensure its energy independence and to mobilize the resulting resources to finance its economic and social development. Ultimately in terms of energy problems, the country’s electricity supply is clearly based on essentially thermal national production and imports from Nigeria, at 30 percent and 70 percent, respectively, reflecting the country’s great external dependence. Besides its external dependence and limited household access to electricity (about 10% in 2009), the electricity supply is subject to frequent outages that hamper economic and administrative activity. The challenge in terms of the supply of electricity is a problem of scale: to ensure national energy independence, an essential factor for development. To achieve this, Niger must explore other forms of energy to supplement the electricity produced by thermal plants. In particular, natural gas and renewables (primarily solar and wind) offer interesting prospects. I.1.3.3 Artisanal trades The artisanal sector’s contribution to GDP is estimated at 25 percent, with estimated annual growth of 2.5 percent and a market value-added rate of 80 percent. In 2005, there were 700,000 artisans in Niger. In terms of organizations, Niger has a National Federation of Artisans; eight regional federations; 43 subregional federations, and more than 740 grass-roots professional organizations of artisans (cooperatives, associations, groups, NGOs, etc.). A trades chamber is being created and 206 trades are listed. In terms of improving artisans’ working conditions, Niger has nine artisanal centers or villages and five tanneries, two of which are semi-modern (Niamey and Zinder). However, Nigerien artisanal trades are faced with limited development of their products due to the lack of an adequate financing system, insufficient quality artisanal production, inadequate marketing of quality artisanal products, and a weak institutional framework. Despite the international reputation of Nigerien handicrafts and numerous professional training centers under various ministerial departments, this situation means that artisanal products are losing their competitiveness. 30 I.1.3.4 Tourism Niger’s eight regions have great wealth based on culture, wildlife, historical and archeological remains, and landscapes (river, deserts, etc.). This includes the Air Massif and the Tenere desert (Agadez region), Central and Eastern Niger (Tahoua, Maradi, Zinder, and Diffa) with the Termit- Tin Touma biosphere reserve that was just classified by the government in February 2012 (Tahoua, Zinder, and Diffa), the dinosaur cemetery, rock carvings, the Addax Sanctuary, architecture, a vast cultural heritage, the last specimens of giraffes in west Africa, the River Niger National “W� Game Park (Niamey, Dosso, Tillabery), and rich and varied handicrafts. As of late 2010, the country had 3,049 beds and 2,123 rooms in 94 hotels compared to 2,412 beds and 1,333 rooms in 55 hotels in 2001. The number of registered overnight stays in hotels amounted to 120,000 in 2008. In 2005, this sector accounted for 8,000 direct jobs (compared to 5,500 in 2000). The limited quality of tourism service, due to under-financing of this sector, weak production capacities and an inadequate institutional and management framework hamper the sector’s growth and the development of its competitiveness on the international level. The under- financing of this sector is particularly linked with the lack of special incentives for tourism and limited public investment. The consequences of sociopolitical crises and conflicts in neighboring countries as well as increasing insecurity represent additional limitations on professionals in this sector. I.1.3.5 Culture Niger is a melting pot of cultures based on its position as a bridge between Northern Africa and sub-Saharan Africa. As of now, there are 44 maisons de culture and cultural centers, reading centers, a national museum, and two regional museums (Dosso and Zinder), a National Cinematography Center, an Agency for the Promotion of Cultural Companies and Industries (APEIC), and the Niger Copyright Office (BNDA). APEIC is currently working on five promising major cultural sectors that create wealth and jobs, on the basis of which nearly thirty (30) culture-related trades have been identified and grouped for purposes of issuing professional licenses and professional cards for cultural entrepreneurs. The principal constraint is limited development of the cultural and artistic sector, associated with limited social participation in cultural life, inadequate cultural and artistic infrastructures, limited professionalization of artists, and a weak institutional and legal framework. The major challenge is rational exploitation of the wealth of cultural heritage in order to make it a true tool for inclusive growth. 31 I.1.3.6 Trade and Transportation The trade sector is hampered by: (i) the delay in setting up an integrated framework for its development; (ii) an unfavorable business environment; (iii) the lack of a trade policy; and (iv) insufficient trade due to problems in warehousing domestic products, limited processing capacities, degraded transportation infrastructures, and the informal nature of trade. However, there are opportunities that could be exploited for investing in trade in the following major areas: agriculture, livestock, mines, and handicrafts. Merchandise and people are basically transported by road (95%). Airline service is very limited. River transport is on a limited scale. Transportation by rail is non-existent as Niger has no railroad as yet. With the formalization of the transportation sector, interest in the sector has been keen in recent years and modern passenger and freight transportation companies have been created. There are a total of 61 freight transport companies and 19 passenger transportation companies (11 of which are operational). In the area of civil aviation, 11 companies have a valid license to operate. However, the transportation services sector faces problems with renewal of an obsolescent truck fleet, inadequate airline service, limited institutional and management capacities, and unsuitable quality of land transport services. The sector also suffers from inadequate and inconsistent financial resources allocated for maintaining and rehabilitating the road system. Other constraints to be noted are limited support for a liberalized transportation sector, particularly in terms of freight transportation, the lack of basic up-to-date data, which limits effectiveness and efficiency in planning medium- and long-term road maintenance, non-tariff barriers, and delay in clearing merchandise at the port. The result is high transportation services costs, and controlling this situation is the principal challenge in this sector. I.1.4 Transportation and communication infrastructure I.1.4.1 Transportation infrastructure Road assets went from 11,560 kilometers in 1990 to 19,267 kilometers in 2011 (including 4,053 kilometers of paved road, 2,444 kilometers of modern earthen roads, and 4,577 kilometers of unpaved roads, with the remaining roads consisting of rough unmaintained trails). The organized network (paved roads and earthen roads, without the trails) thus went from 8,703 kilometers in 1990 to 11,074 kilometers in 2011, or an increase of 27.24 percent (2,371 kilometers in 20 years, including 749 kilometers of paved roads and 1,622 kilometers of earthen roads). 32 However, these road assets are subject to maintenance problems due in particular to insufficient resources allocated to the roads fund through the Autonomous Fund for the Financing of Roadway Maintenance (CAFER). In addition, Niger now has three international airports (Niamey, Zinder, and Agadez), airfields in the regional capitals (Diffa, Tahoua, and Maradi), as well as landing strips. These infrastructures are still subject to problems primarily due to obsolescence and not enough equipment. Niger does not have a railroad network, but some sections are planned, notably the rehabilitation and extension of the Cotonou-Parakou-Gaya-Dosso track, the studies for which are in the detailed pre-project (DPP) stage, in addition to the Dosso-Diamey route, the studies for which are at the start-up stage. Regionally, Niger is a stakeholder in the Cotonou-Niamey-Ouagadougou-Abidjan rail loop, for which the Donors’ Roundtable seeking financing was held on November 29, 2011 in Niamey. Construction of the Dosso dry port through a public-private partnership is under review. With regard to river transportation infrastructures, besides the study on the Tombouctou-Gaya river reach development project within the framework of the Liptako-Gourma Authority (ALG), a feasibility study was done on construction of wharves on the Niger River. However, silting of the river considerably limits navigability along this watercourse. Analysis of the road equipment situation reveals rapid deterioration of road assets; limited capacities for managing road infrastructures; inadequate personnel in units responsible for the sector, and in building and public works (BPW) companies, and providers; limited planning capacities; and limited resources allocated to protect assets. However, the political will expressed in the DPG, the willingness of partners to finance actions in this area, and the Law on Public-Private Partnership are all factors supporting the medium- and long-term development of the sector. As for airports and airfields, there are problems with implementing infrastructure standards related to safety and security due, inter alia, to the government’s limited investment in the subsector. 33 I.1.4.2 Communications infrastructure Considerable investments were made in the Nigerien telecommunications network following liberalization of the sector. Thus, teledensity could be increased from 0.19 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2010. At the same time, a multitude of access providers developed access to the Internet. More than one million Nigeriens have access to the Internet, a significant success, but this performance is still below that recorded in neighboring countries. Besides public radio and two public television stations, thirty-two (32) private radio stations broadcasting on FM have been created since 1994, with some of them relaying international stations. In addition, 129 community radios have been installed throughout the country. About ten private television channels have also been created since 2001. As for the print media, there are more than seventy (70) print titles and twenty (20) printing plants. As regards mail services, Niger has an infrastructure based on a postal network of some fifteen offices with 11,332 postboxes, a national mail sorting center, a postal check center, and a stamp center. However, it should be noted that despite these advances, the communications sector is subject to various constraints: weak national coverage; inadequate resources of the Nigerian Press Agency (ANP); irregular publication of some private newspapers; insufficient quantity and quality of human resources; obsolescent equipment for public audiovisual production; the high cost of communications; and unsuitable community radio equipment in an environment that is difficult in terms of geography and climate. The frame of reference for harmonization of policies and regulations in the area of telecommunications and ITC in Africa, national policy documents on communication for development, the national strategy on the transition to digital terrestrial broadcasting, and sectoral policy on telecommunications and information and communication technologies represent opportunities that could make it possible to meet the challenge of improving citizen access to communication. I.2 SOCIAL CONDITIONS I.2.1 Demographic change The Nigerien population, estimated at 16 million inhabitants in 2011, continues to grow at a very rapid pace, with a rate of demographic change of 3.3 percent combined with a high total fertility index of 7.1 children per woman in 2006. The rate of demographic growth was virtually unchanged between 1990 and 2010. At that rate, the population is expected to double every 34 23 years. High fertility is due11 in particular to cultural and religious factors that often lead to a high degree of community reticence on the subject of spacing and limiting the number of births. This is associated with a low level of education and literacy that prevents people from mastering family planning methods, the median age when women in particular marry for the first time, or polygamy. This situation is reflected in the difficulties households face in meeting the needs of a relatively high number of infants and children to feed, tend to, and educate. It also creates strong social pressure on the limited ability of the State and communities to improve living conditions. These pressures are primarily felt when trying to manage family budgets, dealing with household autonomy expenditures like those related to health, nutrition, education, school/work tradeoffs for children, preference given to educating boys rather than girls, etc. Moreover, the annual demographic growth rate in urban areas, estimated at 6.2 percent per year, is about twice the growth rate for the population as a whole. If the current trend continues, the urban population will represent more than 40 percent of the total population by 2030. Consequently, urgent solutions are needed to deal with the migratory pressure of rural youth moving to urban centers. In terms of potential, Niger’s population is extremely young (more than 45% are under the age of 20). In addition, the country has strategic frameworks supported by its development partners in the area of population, promotion of women, education, and training that are capable of striking a balance between very high demographic growth and economic growth insufficient to create equilibrium between social supply and demand. The major challenge is to control demographic growth to facilitate the balance between social supply and demand, so as to preserve resources for future generations and promote sustainable development. This challenge cannot be met without providing adequate schooling, keeping girls in school, taking measures to prevent early marriage, ensuring literacy among the population, enabling women to become economically autonomous, or raising community awareness to promote changed behavior in terms of family planning. I.2.2 Poverty trends and profile Based on the monetary approach the National Institute of Statistics (INS) prefers when mapping the profile of poverty using data from different surveys on household living conditions, poverty has been receding12 very slightly, falling from 63 percent in 1990 to 62.1 percent in 2005, and to 11 Analysis of the Situation of Children and Women (ANSITEF), INS-UNICEF, 2008. 12 National Survey on Budget and Household Consumption (ENBC) 2008 and CWIQ 2005. 35 59.5 percent in 2008. From 2005 to 2008, multidimensional poverty13 based on the lack of social services has not fallen significantly. This is evidenced by limited progress made in terms of access to basic social services, healthy and balanced nutrition, sources of safe drinking water, and a decent standard of living and housing. The two most recent poverty profiles also indicated that poverty affects rural areas more than urban areas, and is more pronounced among the female population. In addition, the phenomenon takes on an endemic dimensions in the Maradi, Dosso, and Tillaberry regions. Although the depth and severity of poverty, as well as social inequities, declined slightly between 2005 and 2008, they still remained at high levels. The female face of poverty and inequality in Niger is particularly obvious in per capita consumption, which was less than 45 percent in households headed by women in 2008. Women also have much less access to credit (17.5% of demand met compared to 27.4 percent for men in 2008) and fewer job opportunities (27.4% access although women represent 51.1 percent of the active population). Rural populations are most affected by the phenomenon of poverty due to their structure and a model of production that is essentially based on rainfed agriculture and livestock, which are highly dependent on the vagaries of the weather. Other factors associated with cultural constraints would explain the low level of per capita consumption in the Maradi region, which is structurally the poorest region. The major challenge is to put in place effective “pro-poor� strategies to benefit the most economically vulnerable populations first (the unemployed, women, children in need, rural households) by ensuring better targeting and more social equity in the distribution of the fruits of growth and by promoting accelerated achievement of the MDGs. 13 Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA), UNPD-National Observatory for Poverty and Sustainable Human Development (ONAPAD)-Laval University, Quebec, 2011. 36 Box 1: MDG situation in Niger Upon the conclusion of the Millennium Summit in New York in 2000, 180 countries, including Niger, adopted the “Millennium Declaration,� with its eight (8) objectives, 18 targets, and 48 indicators to be achieved by 2015. At the current rate of progress in the indicators, only the objectives on reducing infant and child mortality, primary education, and reducing the prevalence of certain diseases have good prospects. The current situation in terms of the MDGs is as follows: (i) MDG1 (Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger): the incidence of poverty and hunger continues to be high and improvement can only be seen within the framework of the 3N Initiative; (ii) MDG2 (Achieve universal primary education): primary school enrollment is notably improved, suggesting achievement of the targeted education for all by 2015, but the challenges of quality and retention remain; (iii) MDG3 (Promote gender equality and empower women): insufficient gains have been made in reducing gender-based inequalities and empowering women despites advances that have been made, particularly reducing boy/girl disparity in school and implementing the law on quotas in elective and appointive positions; (iv) MDG4 (Reduce child mortality): progress must be consolidated in the area of reducing infant and child mortality; (v) MDG5 (Improve maternal health): maternal mortality is still too high and suggests that the target will not be achieved; (vi) MDG6 (Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases): significant gains have been made in combating HIV/AIDS but high malaria-related mortality persists; (vii) MDG7 (Ensure environmental sustainability): the impact of climate change and the weight of environmental constraints on natural resources and the national economy continue to be significant; (viii) MDG8 (Develop a global partnership for development): despite international commitments to support the developing countries, in Niger the official development assistance to GDP ratio and the debt service to exports ratio indicate that the country finds it difficult to take advantage of the global partnership for development. On the other hand, there does seem to be some improvement in terms of access to new information and telecommunication technologies (NITT), with a cellular phone penetration rate that in 2012 is about to exceed the target set in the MDGs. In such a context, achieving the MDGs in Niger is a major issue and implementation of the PDES will help to overcome MDG-related challenges by combating the bottlenecks that have delayed progress toward these goals in recent years. 37 I.2.3 Household living conditions I.2.3.1 Food security Over the last 50 years, Niger has very often experienced grain deficits (in an average of one out of every two years).14 For example, based on consumption of local grain production (millet, sorghum, maize, and fonio), the final results from the 2009-2010 season show a deficit of nearly 120,000 tons. That same year, 20 percent of the population was identified as being in a “severely vulnerable� situation.�15 Nonetheless, agriculture and livestock form the foundation of the national economy and their contribution to GDP formation is estimated to average more than 40 percent over the last ten years. Recurring food crises make rural populations highly subject to frequent food and nutritional vulnerability, which means women and children in this case. Even in those years when production is balanced or yields a surplus, a significant segment of the population finds itself in a more or less severe situation of food insecurity. About six out of every ten households is only able to cover their food requirements for three months. The situation is often particularly dramatic for children under the age of five: about four out of every ten children are in a situation of chronic under-nutrition and one out of every ten is in a situation of acute under-nutrition. During the 2004-2005 food crisis, some 3.6 million people (or more than 30% of the population) needed food assistance. This figure practically doubled in 2009-2010 (7.1 million people). The emergency response to food insecurity is based in particular on strengthening grain banks and developing labor intensive jobs. The use of small-scale irrigation, the development of fruit tree production, and forest use products (non-timber products) or date production (estimated at 8,000 tons per year) also help to improve producers’ incomes and food security. The National System for Disaster and Crisis Prevention and Management (DNPGCC), which has been in existence for more than 15 years and includes the Early Warning System (SAP) and the Food Crisis Unit (CCA) and their regional and departmental agencies, strives to support a dynamic of food security in coordination with the ministerial departments concerned. 14 High Commissioner for the 3N Initiative (HC3N): Strategic Framework of the 3N Initiative (Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens)—working document—December 2011 citing the report by Sani Laouali Addo and Salifou Sanda Ousmane (SIM-Niger): Étude sur la transmission des fluctuations et le calcul des prix de parité du riz and du maïs au Niger. 15 Executive Secretariat-Rural Development Strategy (SE-SDR): Summary of “rural sector� thematic working group in the context of revising the poverty reduction strategy-July 2006. 38 Nigerien agriculture is basically subsistence-level food farming dominated by rainfed production of grains, primarily millet and sorghum, which alone cover more than 70 percent of the area sown each year. Increased production was basically achieved by extending cultivated areas to increasingly marginal lands and by reducing fallow periods, leading to continued deterioration of land quality and declining yields. Faced with accelerated desertification, degraded land and water resources, illegal felling of trees, climate change, and their adverse effects on the environment, the country’s response capacity is generally weak. The challenges to be met are thus significant. They include (i) increasing the level of household income to improve access to basic community resources (land, livestock capital, water, etc.); (ii) sustainably managing environmental resources; (iii) improving community resilience for confronting climate change; (iv) improving currently poorly-performing production, agricultural financing, and livestock systems; and (v) managing strong demographic pressure and effectively implementing appropriate food policies and strategies. Despite the constraints involved in promoting sustainable food security, Niger has enormous potential on which it could rely to remedy its situation. These assets primarily include significant water resources, a young population, the strategic framework of the 3N (Nigeriens nourishing Nigeriens) initiative in response to cyclical food crises, the real willingness expressed by officials of the Seventh Republic who have made sustainable food security a major priority, and the international community’s awareness of the magnitude of the situation faced by the Sahelian countries and WAEMU in particular, necessitating responses based on a coordinated approach. The principle challenge to be met consists of successfully transitioning, within the PDES timeframe, from a situation of cyclical management of recurring food crises to more structural responses, particularly through the 3N initiative, for promoting sustainable food security and agricultural development. I.2.3.2 Urban standard of living, housing, and habitat The urbanization rate went from 16.3 percent in 2001, to 17.5 percent in 2005, to 20.4 percent in 2010. The government developed and implemented an urban planning policy based on formulation of an Urban Planning and Development Scheme (SDAU), as expressed in the reference urban plan (PUR) and a National Urban Development Strategy (SNDU) in 2004. In addition, a law providing guidance on urban land planning and development establishes the decentralization of jurisdiction in urban planning (2010). The last ten years were thus marked by progress made in establishing the institutional and legal framework for urban development in Niger in a context of decentralized management. However, this framework has not been accompanied by efficient implementation of the urban development strategy, given the lack of sufficient political will and mobilization of partners to facilitate the actions to be initiated. Other constraints relate to the poor management of urban areas and inadequately prepared subdivision plans. 39 From 1960 to 2010, the government and developers built about 2,500 housing units for an annual requirement of 45,000 housing units, 6,000 of which are in Niamey. This reflects the entire set of problems involved in developing decent housing in Niger. In effect, since 1998, the percentage of households living in a residence with a floor made of durable materials (15%) has not improved. In 2006, solid floors were clearly more prevalent in urban housing (56%) than in rural housing (2%). In 2005, earth (banco, clay) was to a great extent the construction material most often used by households (76%). Construction using solid materials (cement, concrete) represented only four percent and straw construction accounted for 15 percent. Even in Niamey, the percentage of solidly built homes was insufficient and was no more than 54 percent in 2005. In urban centers, very few households own their homes. In addition, despite steps taken to strengthen the legal and institutional framework, particularly the 1998 housing policy law, a high percentage of households, particularly in urban areas, face problems in accessing decent housing. Moreover, there is a strong correlation between the standard of living and housing, health, and the morbidity of individuals within a household. Analysis of data from the CWIQ survey,16 conducted in 2006 by the INS, indicated that the morbidity rate was higher for categories of households living in a dwelling made of banco and using wood fuel for cooking and kerosene lamps as a source of home lighting. In addition, women in rural areas, who use much more fuel wood for cooking, have a higher morbidity rate than men. Consequently, the challenges of improving living and housing standards cannot be met without taking women into account in an effort to achieve greater social equity and mainstream the gender dimension in the conduct of public policies. In terms of the constraints noted, the major challenges to be met in the area of urban planning, housing, and habitat are to update the urban development strategy and its effective implementation, substantial improvement in covering requirements for decent housing with a policy favoring access to decent housing for all and social housing for the lower income quintiles in towns. This approach will have positive effects on health, particularly for women and children, who are most exposed to the adverse consequences associated with current living and housing standards in Niger. I.2.3.3 Safe drinking water The percentage of Niger’s population using a potable water source went from 22.3 percent in 1992 to 50.1 percent in 2008 (National Survey on Budget and Household Consumption—ENBC) or an increase of nearly two percent points per year. In 2006, there was a significant gap between rural (30.8%) and urban (93%) rates. However, significant efforts were made in rural areas in terms of investments in the village water supply. As a result, the rate of coverage of drinking water needs went from 54.2 percent in 2001 to 62.1 percent in 2008, to 64.25 percent in 2010 (and then 66.48% in 2011). However, this level is still insufficient to achieve the MDG target of 80 percent set for 2015. 16 Core Welfare Indicators Questionnaire. 40 The principal constraints in this sector are: inadequate financing and investments, the lack of maintenance and obsolescence of infrastructures, particularly in rural areas, the fact that structures lie at great depth, and/or poor quality of water in some areas. The major challenge to meet in this sector continues to be mobilizing human, material, and financial resources sufficient to give households sustainable access to drinking water in rural and periurban areas, and to produce the necessary behavioral changes among individuals as well as in the management model of towns and villages in terms of the supply of hygiene and sanitation services: garbage collection and disposal of rainwater and wastewater. I.2.3.4 Sanitation and hygiene In rural areas, households produce “domestic� waste from household activities (cooking, cleaning, etc.). Many households also breed domestic animals on a small scale. As there is practically no organized system for removing household waste in rural areas, households collect their waste and dispose of it outside, most often in areas immediately nearby. Animal droppings are taken to the fields to be used as organic fertilizer. In urban areas,17 with insufficiently controlled and accelerated urbanization of towns and rapidly increasing populations, urban households, particularly in large population centers, do not have appropriate waste removal systems. In small urban centers and in rural areas, waste is disposed of in surrounding areas or between residences. In large centers, waste is collected and most often disposed of in unimproved garbage pits or, in rare cases, in dumpsters scattered throughout the municipality that are emptied out irregularly and taken to garbage pits, although waste is not pretreated anywhere. Between 1998 and 2008,18 about eight out of every ten rural households had no sanitation system of any kind. Even in urban areas, access to sanitation systems is limited. Uncovered latrines are the most common means of elimination in Niamey (one out of every two households uses them). In addition, drainage gutters, which extended for only 630 kilometers nationally in 2007, reached just 750 kilometers in 2012, reflecting the seriousness of the problem of waste water disposal in urban centers. The principal constraints in the area of hygiene and sanitation are the population’s limited education on hygiene, with high health risks, insufficient promotion of latrines in rural areas, 17 Health and poverty, I. Baaré and A. Madai, INS, November 2006. 18 ENBC 2008: health and poverty: I. Baaré and A. Madai, INS, November 2006. 41 inadequate maintenance of existing sanitation structures in towns (gutters, public dumpsters, etc.), minimal proactive approach in communities and municipalities for promoting actions in this area, and under-investment in sanitation facilities in towns. In addition, the major challenge relates to effective implementation of national policy in the area of hygiene and sanitation under the priority pillars of the urban planning scheme and the land management policy. I.2.3.5 Electricity Over the period 1990-2008,19 the principal source of household lighting was kerosene lamps (45% of households), which are used more often in rural (46.7%) than in urban (33.8%) households. Electricity is the second source of lighting and is used by only 10.8 percent of households although with disparities between urban (56.2%) and rural (2.4%) households. In addition, annual reviews of the PRSP have indicated that limited access to electricity in rural areas has a negative impact on the development of income-generating activities and the delivery of public services. Rural communities20 that have public lighting offer more opportunities for development than those that do not. In terms of constraints, note should be made of the country’s high degree of energy dependence, associated with limited development of national energy resources, limited electricity coverage and service in both urban and rural areas, and the lack of reforms and resulting investments in the subsector to renew the network and improve the national level of electricity coverage. Nonetheless, there are areas of potential such as the initiative to carry out the Kandadji hydroelectric dam project and the Salkadamna power station, the achievements of an extensive rural electrification campaign, and the opportunities offered by solar power. In terms of constraints, the major challenge is to promote access to electricity in rural areas, to improve urban service, and strengthen energy independence, particularly based on renewable sources such as solar power and hydroelectricity. 19 Report on social indicators, INS, March 2009 and CWIQ 2005. 20 Annual review, 2010 PRSP. 42 I.2.4 Levels of human development I.2.4.1 Education, teaching, vocational and technical training At the preschool level, the gross pre-school attendance rate has improved significantly, increasing from 1.4 percent in 2001-2002 to 5.7 percent in 2010-2011. In 2011, the gross pre-school attendance rate for girls was 5.7 percent compared to 5.6 percent for boys. Despite the increasingly strong presence of community nursery schools in rural areas, preschool education continues to be primarily an urban phenomenon, due in particular to the absence of a national policy in this subsector. At the basic cycle 1 level of instruction (grade school), the number of students increased from 210,000 in 1979 to 1,901,115 in 2010. The public sector accounts for the overwhelming majority of students (averaging 96% over the period 2000-2010) The gross attendance rate (GAR) has grown steadily since 1997-1998, increasing from 30.46 percent to 76.1 percent in 2010-2011. Despite this increase, disparities based on region, setting, and gender persist. The GAR thus reached an average of 84.9 percent for boys compared to 67.3 percent for girls. There are also significant differences between urban (99.1%) and rural (70%) settings. Indicate, the results for the 2008-2009 school year show that in terms of the distribution of the completion rate by gender, there is a strong disparity between girls (38.6%) and boys (58.3%). Gains have clearly been made in quantitative terms, but this is not true in qualitative terms. In fact, between 80 percent and 90 percent of teachers in this cycle are contract teachers and most of them do not have the appropriate initial training and provide instruction without any ultimate assurance of quality. At the basic cycle 2 level of instruction (middle school): The GAR is lower than in basic cycle 1, particularly for girls (about 18% in 2010) notably due to losses recorded between the two basic cycles. In addition, there are inter-regional disparities: in 2009-2010, the Niamey region had the highest GAR (46.2%) and the Tillabery region had the lowest (9.9%). Moreover, the national rate is very low compared to the average for the West African subregion, which was 34.4 percent in 2006. Coverage is also low in the secondary cycle (high school). The GAR was 3.9 percent in 2010 compared to 2.9 percent in 2002, or an increase of one percent over nearly ten years. Gender disparities indicate a GAR of 5.3 percent for boys compared to 2.5 percent for girls. It should be noted that the average GAR for the countries of the subregion was 15.5 percent in 2006. The literacy rate for adults held steady between 2005 (28.7%) and 2008 (29%), meaning that fewer than three out of every ten people aged 15 and older achieved literacy. The literacy rate for women is very low. It was 11.6 percent in 2006 for women between the ages of 15 and 49, compared to 27.8 percent for men in the same age group. The implementation of literacy programs has a limited impact with a success rate of less than 50 percent in tests conducted at 43 the end of the campaign. Niger had one of the lowest literacy rates in the world in 2009,21 negative impacting the level of its human development index. Besides educational supply and teaching quality problems, there is a gender-based imbalance at all levels of instruction (grade school, middle school, high school, literacy). Girls’ limited access to and retention in the educational system minimizes their opportunities to assert themselves later on, to develop their own initiatives, and to fully participate in the decision-making process in family, community, administrative, political, and economic life. The principal constraint in terms of education in basic cycles 1 and 2 and secondary school is an inadequate supply of quality education, specifically: not enough school facilities; inadequate teaching quality; imbalance based on setting and gender in terms of access and retention (higher dropout rates for girls, urban areas with strong predominance of educational facilities and services); insufficient numbers and quality of teaching and administrative staff; not enough teaching materials and school supplies; limited development of pedagogical research and development; and inadequate financing for the sector. In the area of literacy and informal education (basically in Koranic schools), there are significant losses noted among rural learners, inadequate infrastructures for promoting literacy, insufficient financing, the heavy weight of social norms, and misperceptions regarding school among families and communities. With regard to all the constraints identified, there is an urgent challenge of stimulating demand among vulnerable groups (girls, women, rural areas, etc.), promoting quality instruction particularly through good policy on training/retraining/recruitment, human resources management, adaptation of teaching programs, and gradual establishment of suitable school infrastructures. Another challenge is to implement strategies to reduce gender disparities. In terms of vocational and technical education and training (VTET), formal facilities and staff (three professional high school, three technical high schools, and eleven vocational and technical training centers) have not developed significantly. Thus, formal staff increased from 2,457 in 2007 to 3,090 in 2011 and facilities increased from 12 to 17. For informal learners, staff for them increased from 200 in 2000 to 13,752 in 2010-2011 for over a million potential learners (young drop-outs, the unschooled, artisans, etc.) who are not included in any system. Training facilities include Training Centers in Community Development (CFDC) numbering 19 in 2010 and 54 in 2012, two National Participation Service centers, and the Center for Leather and Art Trades of Niger (CMCAN). There are 76 private facilities with more than half of them located in Niamey. Constraints on VTET involve inadequate quantity and quality of training, characterized by: (i) inadequate VTET capacity (facilities); (ii) limited deployment of facilities among rural 21 Cf. Human Development Report, HDR 2009. 44 populations; (iii) lack of diversification in subsectors and limited adaptation to the needs of the economy; (iv) limited pedagogical supervision; (v) lack of pedagogical training for most trainers; (vi) limited integration of trained teachers; (vii) not enough textbooks and equipment; (viii) a multiplicity of government agencies; and (ix) the failure to encourage women to enroll in technical and industrial programs. The principal challenge is to increase the supply of training in quantitative and qualitative terms and to adapt programs to the needs of the national economy and the labor market. With respect to higher education and applied scientific research, the number of Nigerian students has markedly increased over the course of the last two decades. Students at the University of Niamey increased by 179 percent between 1990 and 2010 and those at the Islamic University of Say increased by 123 percent between 1998 and 2011. Three University Institutes of Technology were created in 2008 in the regions of Maradi, Zinder, and Tahoua, followed by the creation of three universities in 2010. During the same period, the number of private institutions of higher education nearly quadrupled in Niger, increasing from 15 to 55. However, there are still serious problems in terms of ensuring the quality of instruction, controlling standard programs in private institutions of higher learning, but above all in adapting training to the needs of the labor market. In response to international requirements and standards, Niger introduced reform of the LMD (license [bachelors], masters, doctoral) system, but there is a lack of degreed teachers in many programs and a lack of equipment and materials in academic and university research. In addition, the availability of specialized high-level regional training centers (AGRHYMET, EAMAC, EMIG) represents an important asset. The principal constraints in higher education are insufficient quantity and quality of teaching and support staff, limited ability to accept more students at institutions of higher learning, inadequate training programs, under-financing of higher education, and poor management of institutions of higher learning. In terms of the constraints, the principal challenge to be met in promoting higher education is to ensure consistency between the types of vocational programs and training and the needs of the market, in order to satisfy social demand and allow it to play a true role in the country’s development. With respect to scientific research, the absence of any real policy in the area of science, technology, and innovation is to be noted, as is very limited and exclusively public financing (0.25% of GDP). The major limitations on promotion of the subsector include the mismatch between research and the needs of development, inadequate human resources management, an inadequate 45 institutional framework for research, under-financing of research, not enough research equipment, and the lack of private sector involvement. I.2.4.2 Health and nutrition Health policy is implemented through health development plans, which are now in their third generation (1994-2000, 2005-2010, and 2011-2015). In terms of the population’s health, the diagnosis indicates that the prevalence of underweight went from 42.1 percent in 2006 to 40.6 percent in 2010, or a decline of 1.5 percent. The level of chronic malnutrition remained very high over the course of the last decade. It went from 39.8 percent in 2000, to 50 percent in 2005, to 46.3 percent in 2009, and then to 48.1 percent in 2010, associated in particular with being vulnerable to repeated food insecurity during the country’s recurring food crises. Children under the age of five are those most affected by malnutrition, due to adverse behavior in the area of hygiene and sanitation. The overall progress noted in most indicators of maternal health is in line with fewer difficulties faced by women in accessing health care and services between 2005 and 2008. These areas of progress, as revealed by the 2010 PSIA study,22 should be attributed to a number of maternal health promotion activities carried out within the context of the 2005-2010 Health Development Plan (PDS), particularly activities on curative care, assisted childbirth, free caesarian sections, iron supplements, and treatment for diseases undermining maternal health. This favorable trend in the indicators continued between 2008 and 2009 according to the 2009 PDS implementation report. Positive change in these indicators explains to a large extent why the national maternal mortality rate has fallen slightly over the last decade. This decline, although marginal,23 illustrates to some extent the impact of actions taken to promote maternal health between 2005 and 2010. However, these actions are still quite insufficient to accelerate the trend toward achievement of the MDG target of 175 for every 100,000 live births in 2015. With regard to children, the change in health status was more marked between 2005 and 2008. Thus, the deprivations-based approach used to achieve these results in the 2010 PSIA study revealed significant improvement in the level of social indicators, particularly those involving access to healthcare. The results of the survey on nutrition, survival, and mortality in children from 0 to 59 months in Niger in 2010 confirmed the generally downward trend in mortality at all levels (infant, child, infant-child, maternal, etc.). 22 Poverty and Social Impact Analysis, PSIA UNDP 2010 and WHO report 2010. 23 The maternal mortality rate fell from 648 to 554 for every 100,000 live births between 2006 and 2010 according to the national survival and mortality survey. INS2010. 46 In general terms, mortality in children under the age of five has declined significantly, falling from 123 deaths for every 1,000 live births in 1992 to 81 deaths for every 1,000 in 2006, and then to 76 per 1,000 in 2010. This raises hopes for achieving the target by 2015. These two types of mortality occur more frequently in rural areas than in urban areas during the period. Despite advances made, there are still challenges to be met, particularly in strengthening interventions on access to care, vaccination, prenatal checkups, childbirth assisted by qualified personnel, dealing with the emergence of non-communicable diseases, etc. In the area of nutrition, the diagnostic assessment indicates that the prevalence of underweight went from 41.1 percent in 2006 to 33.9 percent in 2009, and then 40.6 percent in 2010. Chronic malnutrition went from 50.0 percent in 2005 to 46.3 percent in 2009, and then 48.1 percent in 2010. Overall acute malnutrition, which was 15.3 percent in children under the age of 5 in 2005, held steady at about 11.0 percent since 2007, before rebounding to 16.7 percent in 2010. For severe acute malnutrition, the rate went from 1.8 percent to 0.8 percent between 2005 and 2007, and climbed to 3.2 percent in 2010. It varies from 16.8 percent in Niamey to 61.8 percent in Zinder. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the general population (15-49 years) was estimated at 0.7 percent in 2006 compared to 0.87 percent in 2007. In 2008, it was 0.3 percent among young people aged 15 to 24 compared to 1.7 percent among pregnant women and 35.6 percent among sex workers, indicating that the epidemic is concentrated. Despite the low level of seroprevalence in Niger, it is important to be prudent and measured given the resistance to voluntary screening (2% according to the data from the 2006 Demographic and Health Survey - EDSN) and migratory flows following crisis situations occurring in some neighboring countries. The annual incidence of malaria, the primary cause of morbidity and mortality in Niger, averages 80.5 cases for every 1,000 inhabitants with upward and downward changes (51.4 cases per 1,000 inhabitants in 2000, 146.2 cases per 1,000 in 2008, 154.8 cases per 1,000 in 2009, and 226.4 cases per 1,000 in 2010). In contrast, the mortality rate shows significant improvement, falling from 0.27 percent in 2005 to 0.13 percent in 2008, and 0.13 percent in 2010. The incidence of tuberculosis was 168 cases per 1,000 inhabitants in 2005, compared to 180 cases per 1,000 inhabitants in 2008 (all types combined), a slight increase due to its association with the AIDS epidemic. Tobacco use is also a new public health problem. On the organizational level, despite progress made in terms of health infrastructures, sources of supplies, and distribution of medications, as well as in the area of human resources, there is still the problem of an inadequate supply of health care.24 Moreover, on the financial level, the change in the government’s budget allocated to health between 1990 and 2010 was not very 24 2003-2009 PRS Review. 47 significant: 6.71 percent of the total budget in 1990 compared to 7.85 percent in 2010, below regional and international commitments in this areas. The principal constraint is the inadequate supply of services and health care due to: (i) weak health coverage; (ii) insufficient numbers and quality in certain personnel categories; (iii) inadequacies in the system for supplying medications, inputs, and reagents; (iv) limited development of reproductive health services; (v) limited development of research; (vi) inadequate alternative financing mechanisms; (vii) inadequacies in health systems management; (viii) inadequate provision of care with respect to communicable and non-communicable, emerging and reemerging diseases; and (ix) inadequate and obsolescent equipment. Areas of potential include the existence of a framework for consultation between the Ministry of Health and the TFP, a common fund (COMPACT) facilitating the mobilization of resources and monitoring of results, the inclusion of the nutritional component in the 3N Initiative, and decentralization with the installation of communal and regional councils. The principal challenge is universal access to primary health care for the population through better targeting of the most vulnerable populations (mother/child, child, the elderly, vulnerable households). I.2.4.3 Protection and social advancement Social protection is one of the major tools in the effort to combat poverty. It is an important link in efforts to reduce economic, social, food/nutritional vulnerability and provide protection against shocks and risks. Many advances have been made, particularly in the institutional and legal framework, with the government’s ratification of several legal instruments on the subject of social protection and its adoption of a national policy document on social protection. In the area of human resources, the principal indicators of social exclusion are a high level of unemployment and under-employment, no social assistance or insurance of any kind, particularly for the most vulnerable populations, and vulnerability to food and nutritional insecurity. Since 1965, the National Social Security Fund (CNSS) has been the principal structure providing social protection for workers. However, government employee retirement pensions are managed by the National Retirement Fund (FNR), a part of the National Treasury. In the area of social advancement of the disabled, the government ratified the international Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities and its Optional Protocol. It also adopted Order No. 2010-028 of May 20, 2010 amending and supplementing Order No. 93-012 of March 2, 1993 establishing the standard minimum rules on the protection of the disabled and its implementing decree. 48 In terms of potential in this area, note should be made of the installation of the national commission responsible for the advancement of the disabled and the institutionalization of a national fund to support the disabled pursuant to Order No. 93-102 of March 2, 1993. In terms of results in providing assistance and social security for the disabled, between 2008 and 2910, more than 2000 disabled persons were hired in civil service. Moreover, since 1974, the government has recognized several associations providing care for the disabled. There is a national federation of the disabled grouping together six associations. They are the National Union of the Blind in Niger (UNAN), the Association of the Deaf of Niger (ASN), the Nigerien Association of the Walking Disabled (ANHL), the Nigerien Association for the Advancement of Persons with Intellectual Disabilities (ANPPDI), the Nigerien Raoul Follereau Association (ANRF), and the Nigerien Association of Persons Suffering from Occupational Accidents and Diseases (ANAMP). In addition, to combat food and nutritional insecurity, the government uses significant social protection measures in implementing its support plan, including the free distribution of foodstuffs, price subsidies on essential goods, and community support programs. Measures being used to combat chronic poverty and social inequities on a sustainable basis include: (i) the National Program of Social Safety Nets, the implementation of which began in 2012, strengthens the resilience of vulnerable populations to repetitive crises; (ii) expanded free delivery of certain benefits to increase the supply of social protection services, necessitating improvement in the supply as well; and (ii) the school canteens program. In the area of child protection, between 1990 and 2010, Niger ratified or acceded to several texts and instruments establishing the rights, well-being, and protection of children. In order to follow up on these various commitments, the government has set up institutional mechanisms ensuring that children are protected 25 against all forms of violence, abuse, and exploitation. In addition, the government has always made combating violence against children a national priority and a framework document in the area of child protection was prepared. This document is consistent with a systemic approach that seeks to strengthen the current system and works in synergy with other sectors, including justice, education, civil status, labor, and health. However, despite legal provisions seen as advances, the phenomenon of children26 living on the streets and begging reflects the ineffectiveness of the strategies implemented over the period 1990-2010 for the social protection of children in both urban and rural settings. As regards child protection, areas of potential involve reforms undertaken, particularly the preparation in 2011 of a framework document in this area. Another area of potential is based on 25 In particular, this includes the creation of a national directorate for the protection of children in 1993 and educational, legal, and preventive services (SEJUP), courts for minors in 1999, a juvenile central service and units in 2006, and national and regional child protection committees. 26 ANSITEF, UNICEF, INS, 2008. 49 creation within the Ministry of Justice of a national directorate for the legal protection of youth and adoption of a national policy on civil status (2007) intended to gradually cover the entire country. Finally, the existence of a platform of NGOs and associations working to advance and protect the rights of children is also an area of potential. Issues relating to the advancement of women and gender inequities have also clearly changed since the 1990s, with the emergence of women’s civil society organizations. A significant milestones leading to this change is the historic Nigerien women’s march on May 13, 1991 that demanded greater participation in the Sovereign National Conference. These advances have been reflected in the adoption of several legal instruments and sectoral polices. In terms of achievements, the implementation of the law on quotas for appointments and elective office made it possible to significantly increase women’s participation in the management of public power. For example, there were 15 women among the 113 members of Parliament in 2011, or 12.5 percent, while in 1999 (before adoption of the quota law) there was only one woman among the 83 members, or 1.2 percent. As for women members of government, their percentage went from 8 percent in 1999 to 25 percent in 2011. However, a study on the situation of women in Niger, conducted in 2009, indicates that their participation in decision-making bodies is still very weak. In terms of advancing the status of women and taking the gender dimension into account, the principal constraint is women’s limited participation in decision-making as well as in family, community, administrative, or economic life. Moreover, despite their activism urban women have not been in a position to significantly influence change favorable to the full development of women in a variety of settings, particularly in rural areas. This is due to insufficient convergence between urban and rural women in terms of perceptions and the choice of actions to be undertaken. Hierarchical social status, sociocultural obstacles, and weak institutional capacities of structures responsible for the advancement of women and mainstreaming of the gender dimension are not conducive to the appropriate handling of these issues. However, there are areas of potential on which to rely in taking the gender dimension into account, including political commitment through the provisions of the Constitution of November 25, 2010, adoption of the law on quotas for elective (10%) and appointive (25%) office, the national policy on gender, the development partners’ commitment to supporting the advancement of women and gender, and the energy and commitment of civil society. The principal challenge in terms of social protection is to expand it by raising the level of social security coverage, adapting the legislative and regulatory framework, and providing adequate protection for vulnerable groups. At the same time, it is important to achieve the women’s full participation in decision-making by providing appropriate solutions to social obstacles, with particular emphasis on the empowerment and autonomy of rural women. 50 I.2.4.4 Labor and jobs Unemployment and under-employment, particularly among young graduates, are constant concerns in Niger. In 2010, there were 7,363 unemployed graduates27 in Niger, most of them young people. Of these unemployed graduates, 52.5 percent were men and 47.5 percent were women. Most unemployed or under-employed young people28 represent a burden for heads of household, particularly those in the lower income quintiles where average household size is larger. This size is additionally combined with a low level of education. About 60 percent of the unemployed belong to households where the head has no education. National Employment Promotion Agency (ANPE) studies and data show, moreover, that the unemployed find it difficult to rejoin the labor market. The average period of unemployment29 was estimated to be about five years in the capital. The general unemployment rate is estimated to be 15.9 percent. It is higher in urban areas (19.4%)30 than in rural areas (15.1%). Unemployment among rural young people is associated with the shortage of gainful employment and the effect of food crises that force them to migrate to urban centers, where they face a precarious situation. Moreover, the shortage of decent work due to the predominance of informal employment, particularly in rural areas and in the agricultural sector, the limited implementation of standards, and the mismatch between job supply and demand limits the ability to improve living standards and create a climate of social peace. The reasons for unemployment and precarious employment are associated in particular with the absence of good linkage between the labor market, vocational training, and policy to support entrepreneurship. Other factors include a poor business climate, the dispersion of structures to support employment, and the characteristic structure of a national economy in which the informal sector holds significant importance and the secondary sector is weak. Areas of potential employment are primarily tied to the agricultural subsector and all the initiatives planned for its growth and necessitating the creation of activities for young people (agricultural jobs), development of the private sector, resumption of activities in the mining and petroleum sector, the benefits of the future Kandadji dam, and the explicit political commitment to including the issue of employment in the priorities of the DPG and the Renaissance Program for Niger. 27 Census of Unemployed Graduates (RDSE), 2009. 28 CWIQ 2005. 29 1-2-3 Survey, Employment Component, INS, 2003. 30 CWIQ 2005. 51 In terms of the constraints identified, the principal challenge associated with promoting employment and decent work will be to successfully develop comparative advantages in order to create jobs in the sectors that drive economic growth (agriculture and agroindustry, mining, petroleum, artisanal trades, tourism, etc.), while encouraging entrepreneurship. I.2.4.5 Youth and sports Youth includes individuals of both sexes between the ages of 15 and 35.31 In terms of demographics, 56.5 percent of the Nigerien population is under the age of 15 and the annual youth growth rate over the period 2001-2010 is estimated to average 3.81 percent per year. The number of young people aged 15-35 is estimated at 4,914,140 in 2011, with 3,766,415 in rural areas and 1,147,725 in urban areas.32 However, these numbers are changing and show an upward trend for urban youth compared to youth in rural areas. Young people are classified as among the most vulnerable groups since they face problems in health, education, sports, leisure, employment, socio-economic integration, and progressive loss of national cultural values. In terms of demographic weight, young people represent an asset and enormous potential that can be mobilized for the country’s economic and social development. The major challenge for young people is to satisfy their strong social demands and aspirations. In this regard, it is essential to address the principal issues, which are to: (i) prepare young people to promote the sustainable development of the country; (ii) reduce their vulnerability by providing appropriate education, vocational training, and decent jobs; (iii) ensure their socioeconomic integration; (iv) promote their initiatives in the area of entrepreneurship; (v) promote their involvement in the decision-making process; (vi) protect them against social pressures (discrimination against young women, early marriage; (vii) combat delinquency among young people; and (viii) create emancipated, responsible young people who are the essential foundation of their own well-being and the overall well-being of the nation. Sports are becoming important in the life of Nigeriens and are increasingly of interest to the business community and the media.33 This interest is driven by three entities: (i) the Nigerien government, the association movement, and the business world. However, there are constraints that limit the promotion of sports. Existing sports facilities (a total of 524) generally operate with very limited material, financial, and human resources, creating maintenance problems that lead to their deterioration. At the same time, the need for training continues to be a concern due to a 31 African Youth Charter in 2009. 32 Projections of youth population by the INS. 33 PICAG 2011-2012. 52 marked shortage of agents in this area of activity. Other factors are an inadequate legal framework; a shortage of staff, officials, and referees; insufficient training for the psychological preparation of players; limited effectiveness of the framework for discovering, choosing, and training young talent; and cultural and religious biases that hamper the promotion of women’s sports. However, the sector does have assets for promoting sports. These include a young population and a favorable school and university environment for cultivating the spirit and practice of sports. The principal challenge to be met is to promote governance within the entities involved in sports, train youth in this area, improve sports performance, and make Niger a crossroads for sports with its own brand. I.3 STATUS OF GOVERNANCE The government’s General Policy Statement presented by the Prime Minister, Head of Government, states that “to be sustainable, good governance must be broad, i.e., it must be simultaneously political, administrative, economic, and local.� Governance, its limitations, potential, and an analysis of the stakeholders are presented below. I.3.1 Political governance Niger’s recent political and institutional history indicates that, to a large extent, political and institutional crises are due to a shortage of governmental practices and capacities for transparently, rationally, and effectively managing public affairs. Thus, Niger has experienced two decades of learning about the exercise of democracy. Since 1990, this experience has been characterized by significant political and institutional instability punctuated by three military coups in 1996, 1999, and 2010. In order to strengthen the foundations of democracy, the Seventh Republic has developed the entire legal and institutional arsenal of a modern state. The institutional architecture of the republic, as provided by the Constitution of November 25, 2010, is being finalized (National Assembly; Office of the Prime Minister; Constitutional Court; Court of Accounts [Audit Office]; Court of Cassation [Supreme Court]; Council of State; Economic, Social, and Cultural Council; High Court of Justice; High Council for Communications; the Human Rights Commission, etc.). The authorities of the Seventh Republic strive to make the operations of theses institutions smooth and effective by giving them considerable resources and respecting and enforcing their independence. Along the same lines, Niger is reactivating and/or establishing permanent bodies or frameworks for cooperation on issues of national interest and on the prevention and resolution of political conflicts in order to establish a peaceful democracy. These include the Council of the Republic, the National Council for Political Dialogue (CNDP), and the 53 National Commission for Social Dialogue (CNDS). The appointment of a Mediator of the Republic and institutionalization of the Status of the Opposition and its leader reflect the same objectives. The central problem of political governance has been the dysfunction of democratic institutions due to the operational deficiencies of government institutions and the limited capacities of non-state actors. The operational deficiencies of government institutions are linked to: (i) the failure to respect the principle of the separation of powers; (ii) public authorities’ failure to respect citizens’ constitutional rights and freedoms; (iii) poor relations between institutions; (iv) a lack of planning; and (v) limited cooperation in the actions of government. Regarding the limited capacities of non-state actors, this was due to: (i) a lack of communication; (ii) poor understanding of institutional mechanisms; (iii) a lack of ethics and professional conduct; and (iv) political interference in the trade union movement and in civil society. Assets in terms of political governance include: (i) regular operation of the CNDP since 2004 (consultative body for the prevention, management, and resolution of political disputes); (ii) the existence of a legal-institutional arsenal established by the Constitution of November 25, 2010; and (iii) the recommendations of the Niamey Declaration of September 15, 2011 on relations between civil society, the State, and the technical and financial partners. With regard to the political upheavals of recent decades, the principal challenge to be met is to strengthen good practices, including the permanence of the electoral cycle and strengthened institutions to stabilize the political climate, a prerequisite for the country’s economic, social, and security environment. I.3.2 Administrative governance Since the 1990s, Nigerien public administration has been characterized by weak human resource management, a shortage of qualified and experienced personnel, a mismatch between where personnel are located and public service needs, and limited communication between units that should work together. Other factors include: (i) employees’ lack of motivation due to the politicization of civil service; (ii) excessive turnover of personnel as political winds change (detrimental to the ability to capitalize on experience); (iii) a compensation and promotion policy inconducive to productivity because of its limited association with merit and performance; (iv) the aging of personnel; and (v) insufficient or non-existent operational resources and maintenance. Moreover, government assets, particularly administrative buildings, are generally antiquated and dilapidated. Despite the government’s efforts to construct administrative buildings between 1993 and 2007, it is still leasing private sector buildings to meet its administrative needs. 54 The principal constraint in this area is the poor performance of governmental services due to inadequate administrative management tools and instruments, dysfunctional administrative offices, and inadequate quantity and quality of human resources in civil service, as well as the absence of career paths. As a significant area of potential, it should be noted that with a view to ensuring consistency and coordination in development programs, the government, through the High Commission for Modernization of the State, drew up the National Policy on Modernization of the State (PNME), which seeks to focus government administrative reforms on increasing the quality and accessibility of the services the government provides to its citizens. Current staffing in civil service can be seen below: Table 4: Civil service staffing levels from 2005 to 2010: Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Civil 28,181 26,424 27,516 28,044 28,186 34,017 servants Population 12,627,242 13,044,972 13,716,233 14,197,601 14,693,112 15,203,822 Number of inhabitants 448 494 498 506 521 447 per civil servant Source: MEF/DGEPD, 2011, Diagnostic Report on General Capacity-Building Program The major challenge in administrative governance is thus to successfully manage the indispensable transition/change from static to dynamic development administration with effective oversight mechanisms. This will mean accelerating the reform of government and strengthening its capacities, particularly human capacities, in order to give government administration the skills essential to increasing quality in the public services provided to citizens and to the conduct of development projects and programs. However, this can only be done by promoting a results-based culture at the individual and collective level at all points in the administrative chain. I.3.3 Local governance The local governance situation is addressed here in terms of the management of local governments. Local governance is based on the principle of decentralization, which is a public services management method born of the conviction that decentralized management is more effective and less expensive than centralized management. In addition, Article 164 of the Constitution established decentralization as a principle of administrative governance, stipulating that “territorial administration is based on the principles of decentralization and deconcentration.� In this regard, the contribution of decentralization in the area of development management lies in 55 the involvement of authorities and non-state actors (local authorities, local elected officials, NGOs, associations, etc.) that formerly played a minor role. In addition, in order the create the conditions for better sharing and more organized implementation of administrative reform, to help democracy take root, and make grass-roots communities accountable in the management of their development, the National Decentralization Policy (PND) of March 2012 replaces the sovereign powers of the State and its role as the principal organization and overseer of decentralization. Thus, this policy makes local governments (regions, communes) the agents of local control over the implementation of public policies, grassroots democracy, good governance, and sustainable local development within the framework of the unitary rule of law that, based on effective decentralized administration, ensures the order development of the country based on national solidarity, regional potential, and intra- and inter-regional balance (linkage and consistency of different sectoral interventions). In this respect, decentralization represents an opportunity to learn about the exercise of local governance by ensuring that the community in particular and the local government in general can conduct their own affairs. Decentralization fosters the principle of local authorities’ accountability to citizens and for this reason helps to spread the culture of grassroots democracy and is a dynamic process. In terms of constraints, the first factor to be noted is that local governments—among which municipalities or “communes� represent one of the principal instruments for the implementation of local governance, enjoy autonomy of management, and have deliberative bodies made up of local elected officials—have only existed in Niger since 2004. Thus, they are recent and the bodies established and those active in them are taking their first steps. Like any learning experience, learning how to engage in local governance is a laborious task and skills in this area are acquired only through exercise and actual practice. Moreover, action in many of towns is constrained by inadequate resources, particularly due to the failure to implement the National Agency for the Financing of Local Government (ANFICT) and the towns’ limited ability to mobilize internal resources. In effect, in order for the decentralization policy to be effective, the transfer of responsibilities (jurisdiction) must be accompanied by the resources necessary (particularly financial resources and technical assistance) to allow the decentralized entity to take up its responsibilities. In addition, considering the importance of the challenge presented by the issue of decentralization in terms of the viability of towns, the central government must commit to support the efforts of these local governments through appropriate financial assistance and technical training in keeping with the actions needed. The principal constraint is the limited ability of local governments to ensure sustainable local development due to: (i) their limited experience with contracting; (ii) the failure to effectively take the geographic dimension into account, in the absence of an operational national land management policy; (iii) the lack of tools to support the financing of local governments; and (iv) limited monitoring of the government’s technical services. 56 Areas of potential that could help to promote local governance basically involve: creation of the National Agency for Financing the Investments of Local Governments; civil society involved in decentralization and local development; a national decentralization policy, the Association of Municipalities of Niger; the Association of Regions of Niger; and the availability of TFPs to monitor the decentralization and local development process. Thus, the challenge here is to consistently support the efforts of decentralized entities by providing the financial and technical assistance essential for implementing the decentralization policy. I.3.4 Economic governance After more than a decade of the structural adjustment process, a diagnosis was performed in the early 2000s regarding government finance management and above all the impact of public spending on the population’s well-being. This diagnosis indicated that the government’s budget was highly dependent on foreign assistance (more than 55%), limited room to maneuver on the level and composition of public expenditures, difficulties establishing links between national strategies and the budget, complex and highly centralized budgetary execution procedures, and excessive use of exceptional procedures. The issue of economic governance, which has been given priority since adoption of the first Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper in 2002, is vigorously affirmed, particularly through public finance reforms to increase the effectiveness of budget execution and make financial management more transparent and more accountable. In the area of strengthening public finance management in Niger, the government undertook a PEMFAR34 process that resulted in the adoption in 2009 of a priority actions plan under which notable achievements have been made. In 2011, a Public Finance Management Reform Program was developed with a view to strengthening budgetary credibility, the predictability of resources, increased transparency and accountability in the management of public finances, as well as the quality of public spending. In recent years, efforts have focused in particular on strengthening the oversight system, combating corruption, and the public procurement system. Nonetheless, the management of public expenditure in Niger is still characterized by weak and variable collection of domestic revenues. In effect, the mobilization of revenues continues to be very low (tax burden of 13.3% in 2010, below the community norm of 17%) and unpredictable. Moreover, there is a gap between expected revenues and actual revenues, with a negative impact on proper expenditure management. 34 Public Expenditure Management and Financial Accountability Review. 57 In the area of development planning, from the time of its independence until 2000, Niger has opted for indicative planning, combining long-, medium, and short-term planning, through various planning exercises and methods that have thus marked Nigerien development management experience. The weakening of the development planning and coordination function between 2000 and 2010 resulted in: (i) a dilution of responsibilities for the design and preparation of development policies; (ii) limited consistency in sectoral policies; (iii) problems faced by public authorities in formulating endogenous development policies and strategies: and (iv) limited utilization of tools for planning and monitoring public policies and deterioration of the related framework. In effect, the monitoring and evaluation mechanisms of the ADPRS have not been able to ensure effective coordination of development strategies. The analysis of economic governance reveals significant achievements in the area of steering the economy, reforms of public finances, forecasting, and development management, and the monitoring and evaluation of public policies (results-based management). Recently, efforts have been made to strengthen the capacities of public administration, particularly in the formulation of public policy, the identification of needs, and the formulation of programs and projects. The principal constraint is the limited relationship between the various development management benchmarks due to the limited credibility of the budget and the failure to anticipate development. The limited credibility of the budget is based on limited ability to predict expenditures, limited capacities of oversight bodies, the failure to consolidate a culture of accountability, the weakness of citizen oversight, weak collection of domestic revenues, limited capacity of sectoral ministries in the area of budgetary and financial management procedures, budgetary regulations, and the complexity of budgetary procedures. The failure to anticipate development is associated with a persistent resistance to change, the limited consistency of development management instruments, insufficient coordination of development, and obsolescent planning tools. The main areas of potential can be found in the various international and regional instruments based on agreements with international organizations (WAEMU, ECOWAS, GIABA, the IMF, and the World Bank), the Public Finance Management Reform Program, and the new agreement with the IMF allowing the Republic of Niger to take on new loans. In the area of economic governance, there is also the validation of the national charter on good governance with respect to the management of mining resources, Niger’s accession to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). These instruments are designed to allow better management of the mining and petroleum resources anticipated by the country. In addition, compliance with sub- regional directives, particularly for development of the programmatic approach in the sectors and the transition from means budgets to program budgets, will make it possible to link the planning of appropriations and the strategic development priorities expressed in the national plan and in sectoral policies. 58 The principal challenge is to significantly improve the efficiency of development management instruments (mineral resources management and transparency instrument, MTEF, PDES, SDDCI, fiscal reform program, budgetary strategy, budget laws, etc.) based on a forward-looking approach. The issue of significant computerization of the national economy is also an important challenge to be met in order to increase the growth and mobilization of domestic resources. I.3.5 Legal and judicial governance The situation in the justice sector shows that various reforms have been undertaken in recent years to improve its performance. These reforms have made it possible to achieve satisfactory results in many areas, but they continue to be limited in scope. However, the budget for the Ministry of Justice increased to more than one percent of budgetary resources in 2012. Reform of the legal framework was marked by significant legislative and regulatory efforts, particularly with the revision of the basic texts on which magistrates rely to administer justice. Thus, the Penal Code and the Criminal Procedure Code were extensively amended to improve the operation of the criminal process and allow the criminalization of certain practices or behaviors and thus render justice that is more effective and more respectful of human rights. There is also the 2004 law on judicial organization and laws governing the professions of attorneys, notaries, and bailiffs. The National Assembly has just adopted organic laws on the composition, organization, powers, and operations of the Court of Accounts, the Constitutional Court, and the National Commission on Human Rights, as well as a law on the creation of the National Legal and Judicial Assistance Agency (ANAJJ). In addition, a new statute on judges was adopted to improve their working conditions. The incorporation, in modern law, of certain legal provisions based on international commitments has also helped to make Nigerien law consistent with international instruments. Codes and reference documents were disseminated and publicized to accompany these basic texts. One of the principal reforms of the judicial framework undertaken to respond to the challenges posed by the Program to Support Judicial Reforms was the creation within the National School of Administration and Magistracy of a section responsible for providing initial training for magistrates. In addition, the organization of various types of training for judges and clerks has strengthened the capacities of the incumbents to respond to the new challenges. Reform of the judicial map with the creation of new jurisdictions and the strengthening of oversight bodies (Superior 59 Council of the Magistracy, General Inspectorate of Judicial Services) have supported the process of improving the judicial system. With a view to improving the conditions for gaining access to justice, particularly judicial defense, tax incentives have been established by the new law organizing the profession of attorneys in order to encourage them to set up in the provincial areas of the country. The bar association took specific actions regarding the defense of accused persons belonging to vulnerable population segments (defense teams). In addition, information and awareness-raising activities for litigants are conducted in partnership with civil society organizations. The installation of judicial facilitators in prison facilities who are responsible for informing prisoners of their rights as well as the reception and information offices in the high courts to inform those using the courts have helped to improve access to justice. In criminal law, the adoption of suspended sentences combined with probation has set up alternatives to incarceration. Implementation of the Juvenile Judicial Protection Program and experimentation with community service work for minors have ensured that the specific nature of juvenile justice is taken into account. With respect to the judicial police, training on human rights for police, gendarmes, and intervention and securities force agents should help to strengthen the protection of human rights. In the corrections sector, prison conditions have improved thanks to the combined effect of increases in the sector’s budget, the creation of new prison facilities, and the rehabilitation of many others. The construction of sections for juveniles in some prison facilities, the development of sociocultural activities and reintegration of prisoners, and initial vocational training for agents through the development of a prison staff training program should also be noted. The principal constraint in the area of legal and judicial governance is systemic dysfunction. This is due to corruption and influence peddling, impunity, judicial delays, difficulties accessing justice, dysfunction in the enforcement of court decisions, and poor prison conditions. Difficulties encountered when seeking access to justice are associated with the distance between the courts and potential litigants, weak judicial communications, inadequate supply and demand of justice, and the failure to monitor the most vulnerable. The dysfunction in the enforcement of judicial decisions is due to all types of interference. Poor prison conditions and insufficient preparation for civilian life are due to the overcrowding of prison facilities and inadequate mechanisms for preparing prisoners to reenter society. In any case, the principal challenge is to significantly improve access to justice and to improve its image. To help achieve this major objective, the government decided to convene national 60 consultations on justice to assess the situation and define solutions for the qualitative and consistent development of the justice system in Niger as both an institution and a public service. I.3.6 Defense and security Defending the integrity and preserving the security of individuals and property are prerequisites for economic and social development. These functions are essentially the responsibility of the Defense and Security Forces (FDS). In the past, the country has experienced three (3) armed rebellions and recurring inter-community disputes between nomadic and settled groups. Today, these types of disputes have fallen off, thanks in particular to the government’s efforts, to dispute resolution mechanisms, and to the commitment and determination of the FDS. However, the country now faces other types of threats: international terrorism, drug and weapons trafficking, and religious fundamentalism. Even though Niger is at the center of areas of tension, the FDS effectively guarantee the country’s territorial integrity, ensure the safety of persons and property, and fully carry out their mission. In addition, the FDS are called upon perform civilian-military activities in the areas of health, military engineering, air and land transport, and environmental protection. The principal constraint in the area of defense and security is the porous nature of the country’s borders, associated with the immensity of the territory and inadequate human, material, and technological means to cover the entire territory. With the creation of the High Defense Council, the National Security Council, the High Authority for Consolidation of the Peace, the National Commission on the Collection and Control of Illegal Weapons, the National Commission on Borders, and international organizations combating drugs and money laundering, Niger has adequate instruments for combatting insecurity. Note should also be made of the recent development of the National Defense and Security Strategy in Sahel-Sahara Areas, adopted by the government in October 2011. The implementation of this strategy reflects the desire of the government and its partners to reconcile peace-related issues with issues of development in towns in the northern part of the country. In addition, the planning laws adopted by the government for the National Guard, the National Police, and the Nigerien Armed Forces represent relevant instruments for modernizing and introducing quality governance within the FDS. This is reflected in the field in better application of military regulations, increased cohesion, discipline, justice, equity, and morale in the FDS and improvement in their living and working conditions. 61 The central challenge, in this area, is to guarantee defense of the territory and the security of persons and property. I.4 EVOLVING CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT I.4.1 Regional integration Niger has an enviable geostrategic position due to its geographic location in the middle of the continent midway between the Atlantic and Indian oceans and linking North Africa and the Gulf of Guinea. It also has abundant potential in the agriculture and livestock, mining, industrial, craft, and tourism sectors. In effect, besides significant uranium reserves, the agriculture and livestock sector includes several promising subsectors (livestock-meat, cowpeas, onion, sesame, peanuts, gum Arabic, etc.). In addition, Niger is now an oil producing country. However, the country’s landlocked position is a serious hindrance to its economic expansion. Aware of this vulnerable situation, immediately upon gaining its independence Niger opted for cooperation and integration with all who share its values. The need to develop agriculture and livestock production and the country’s natural wealth within a subregional, regional, and international context and to pursue domestic and cross-border security supports the validity of the country’s choice to make regional cooperation and integration a fundamental option for its development. In effect, the problems that countries face, particularly those in Africa, are of such a scope and complexity that an overall approach of dealing with them within a subregional and regional context is not only a guarantee of effective promotion of development but also a vehicle for strengthening solidarity between countries and peoples. This determination to make integration a pillar of development was reaffirmed by the President of the Republic in his inaugural address of April 7, 2011 and by the Prime Minister in his General Policy Statement. The note on Strategic Guidelines for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth, adopted by the government on August 31, 2011, reiterates that the Economic and Social Development Plan (PDES) will take into account the agreements and conventions signed by Niger in the context of regional economic integration. Niger’s commitment to the path of integration is reflected in its membership in several hundred inter-governmental organizations including the United Nations system, the African Union, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), etc. However, despite its expressed willingness and efforts made in the area of promoting economic integration, Niger still does not have a national policy in this area. A draft policy was admittedly drawn up in 2004 but has not been adopted. 62 In institutional terms, various ministerial departments are responsible for issues of regional economic integration, given their cross-cutting nature. With regard to the major concerns in the area of regional economic integration, emphasis is often placed on the following points: respect for commitments signed by the country, increased presence of Niger within subregional and regional organizations based on an appropriate policy of representation at the highest level within the decision-making and management bodies of these organizations, active participation by private stakeholders in the integration process, development of the advantages of proximity to neighboring countries, strengthened partnership with the countries of the hinterland, increased competitiveness of the economy, promotion and implementation of integrative projects combining the efforts and interests of several African states, particularly in the areas of energy, transportation and communication infrastructure, agriculture, natural resources, industry and mines, the free movement of persons, goods and capital, as well as the right of establishment and residence, promotion of the country’s brand image within intergovernmental organizations and internationally. The central challenge in this area is to promote subregional and regional integration while offering benefits to the country and allowing it to assert its political and economic influence. I.4.2 Regional development Regional socioeconomic development in Niger is similar to that of the country as a whole. Niger’s regions are actually still highly dependent on governmental action and have not themselves been able to generate dynamic local economic structures that could do without the benefit of government investment, the geographic distribution of which has not taken regional realities into account. The regions’ involvement in the preparation and execution of development plans was marginal during the first three decades following independence (1960-1990). This is due in large part to the incomplete decentralization process that, by inhibiting the emergence of strong and autonomous regional power, prevented the regions from taking their place in the dynamic of development. The decentralization of the government’s technical services as a form of intervention was not sufficient to take regional views into account in the choice of development guidelines and policies. The administrative reform of 1964-1965 created local governments (with budgets and councils) but they were not sufficiently consulted in the process of developing plans. The 1970s were marked by the desire to plan a regionalized development approach through regional “integrated� or productivity projects as well as large-scale irrigation projects. Preceded by environmental studies, these projects sought to cover all areas affecting rural development. 63 In the context of preparing the 1976-1978 Three-Year Program, discussions were organized between the central and departmental levels. However, it was primarily during preparation of the 1979-1983 Plan that real regional planning work was initiated with the preparation of regional assessments. Preparation of the 1987-1991 Plan led to a real contribution from the regions when regional planning and land management work was resumed with the proposed strategy of developing Master Plans for Regional Development and a National Land Management Plan. Recent developments in the area of decentralization have put regional involvement in the planning process back on the agenda. In effect, the strengthened role of the regions will necessarily involve regional-level and effective planning instruments adapted to local resources, leaving considerable room for input from the population. These instruments should respond to the need to define long-term regional guidelines based on locally identified potential and limitations and the preparation of regional planning and development strategies within the general framework of a national land management policy. This policy organizes land use development based on rational valuation and exploitation of the land and its resources, in a spirit of strengthening national unity and solidarity. It must also ensure the preservation and improvement of national factors of production and the population’s living standards. It ensures the definition of sectoral and geographical guidelines capable of creating synergy among different regions and sectors of activity. In this respect, the land management policy to be developed following the prospective study, in early 2013, should help to improve the management of development policies through national and regional land management plans. The major challenge is the search for harmonious sustainable and geographically balanced land use development through (i) the mitigation of inter- and intra-regional disparities; (ii) efforts to combat poverty; and (iii) preservation and utilization of natural resources. I.4.3 Environment The various components of the environment (land, forestry resources, biological diversity, water resources, air, and urban environment) are subject to ongoing deterioration due to the action of climate and human activity. Land resources are subject to a widespread process of deterioration in various forms due to the action of climate factors (wind and water erosion) and human activity (over-exploitation, unsuitable exploitation practices). The impact of the degradation of land is reflected in reduced forested areas, the disappearance of fauna, reduced water infiltration, the loss of arable area, exacerbated land disputes, the unlinking of traditional livestock systems, reduced production potential, deteriorating socioeconomic infrastructures, and serious public health problems (epidemics, malnutrition). 64 With respect to forest production, there is a chronic shortage in the balance between supply and demand for wood. This explains the increasing percentage of green wood and smaller diameters on the market and the increasingly frequent use of other traditional fuels, particularly agricultural residues and cow manure. In terms of cattle feed, forest by-products (fruits and leaves) account for 25 percent of ruminant feed rations. Biological diversity, an essential component of the sociocultural assets of national communities, has been subject to significant changes in recent years, particularly the disappearance of some plant and animal species due to successive droughts and human activity, particularly those associated with agricultural, forestry, and livestock activities. Actually or potentially valuable genetic resources, i.e., genetic material from plant, animal, and microbial sources, are being eroded in both natural plant formations and cultivated species. Water resources represent hydraulic potential that is poorly mobilized. The principal forms of degradation noted are reflected in reduced water surfaces, reduced river flows, increased pollution of various types, and the proliferation of invasive plants. Management of the urban environment is a complex issue due to the rapid increase in the urban population, inadequate planning, and municipalities’ limited resources. These problems take the form of pollution and nuisances related to the population’s living conditions as illustrated by promiscuity in downtown areas, inadequate access to household waste collection and disposal services, limited wastewater collection and treatment systems, the failure to control rainwater, and inadequate systems for collecting and treating industrial and biomedical waste, etc. In terms of health, the environment is generally conducive to the spread of disease, particularly diseases related to water and an unhealthy environment. I.4.4 Climate change Niger’s weather pattern is characterized by limited rainfall that varies geographically and seasonally and by high temperatures that exacerbate the country’s aridity. An examination of climate variations over the course of the period 1950-2000 points to a significant reduction in annual rainfall as well as a net increase in minimum temperatures. As for projections, the average annual increase in maximum temperatures over the period 2020-2049 will reach 2.3 to 2.6 degrees centigrade based on different scenarios. However, rainfall forecasts indicate a slight increase in cumulative rainfall over the period 2020-2049 for most weather stations but with rainy seasons starting later. This will not be without consequences for rainfall-dependent agriculture and for food security in general. Nonetheless, it should be noted that the trends indicated for the West African zones in simplified models suggest the following rainfall changes: greater variability of rainfall from 0.5 percent to 40 percent in the subregion, with an average of 10 percent to 20 percent by 2015, a continued 65 downward slide in isohyets [map line connecting points receiving equal rainfall] toward the south, and increased frequency of episodes of heavy rains and droughts. The future effects of climate change on surface water are as follows: (i) reduced flows in the Niger river; (ii) increased flows in small watersheds and tributaries on the right bank of the river; (iii) continued displacement of the hydrological regime of the river and its major tributaries on the right bank; with Guinean peak flows at Niamey that will be delayed from February/March to December/January, or even November/December in the case of the most unfavorable scenarios; (iv) increased volume and frequency of flooding, particularly in the south; and (v) increased evaporation with the increase in temperature, which could reduce water volumes at dams and reservoirs. The probable impact on groundwater is reduced replenishment and, consequently, lower piezometric levels, particularly in the water tables and alluvial water due to reduced rainfall and flows. This vulnerability will be accentuated by pressure from humans drawing on the water. With respect to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, Niger now ranks among the least polluting countries. The inventories taken over the period 1990-1997 indicated that total emissions of GHG (in CO2 equivalent) recorded in 1990 amounted to 8,912.06 Gg (gigagrams).35 The net balance of GHG emissions and sequestration in 1990 was minus 359,101 Gg. In 2009, the national net balance of GHG emissions/sequestration was minus 33,922 Gg CO2-eq. Niger is no longer a “source� bur a “net sink� in the area of greenhouse gas emissions.36 Although Niger is not compelled by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to submit measures for mitigating GHG emissions, it is still required to participate in the global effort to stabilize emissions, particularly by strengthening the country’s ability to reduce its emissions. This ability depends on the implementation of sustainable sectoral development policies. Niger belongs to a region that is one of those most vulnerable to climate change, as the Sahel is recognized as having become drier over the course of the 20th century. Thus, the country is already living with the consequences of global warming and, consequently, is particularly vulnerable to its adverse effects. In terms of agriculture, forestry, and livestock, the foreseeable impact of climate change, particularly in the event of reduced rainfall, will be reflected in soil degradation, a significant loss of biodiversity, reduced production, continuing large-scale population movements, and a 35 CNEDD-First communication from Niger on climate change-November 2000. 36 CNEDD-Second communication from Niger on climate change-2009. 66 resurgence of disputes between farmers and herders. In addition, the dynamic of forest area degradation will become worse. In health terms, the impacts of climate change basically involve malaria, meningitis, and measles. Increased temperatures during the cold season (December to February) could lead to rather high malaria transmission rates. This could in effect create temperature conditions more favorable to the parasite’s cycle and to the survival of the vector. In terms of meningitis, due to foreseeable increases in rain over the period 2020-2049 for the months of July, August, and September and a cumulative annual increase, on the one hand, and increased temperatures and a longer dry period, on the other, the meningitis attack rate could increase somewhat throughout Niger except in the Tillabery area where the rainy season could extend over a long period and the dry season could be shorter, leading to a likely reduction in the meningitis attack rate. With regard to measles, an increase in temperature and above all a considerable increase in rainfall (as in the Tillabery, Zinder, and Agadez area) would be reflected in an extended rainy season and a reduction in the period during which measles is highly active. In contrast, for the Maradi area, reduced rainfall would lead to an extension of the period conducive to the development of measles. Thus, adapting to climate change is today an urgent requirement and the most sustainable solution to the effects of climate change is to incorporate adaptation measures in economic and social development policies so as to reduce the population’s vulnerability to the negative impacts of climate change and strengthen its ability to resist and tolerate extreme climate phenomena. Priority interventions in this area involve the transfer of technologies to both mitigate and adapt to climate change, increased capacities in the area of research, and systematic observations and actions in the area of information, awareness-building, education, and training. I.5 MAJOR FINDINGS FROM REVIEWS OF THE DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS The following findings from reviews of the diagnostic analysis illustrate the limitations on Niger’s economic and social development: (i) insufficient and volatile economic growth in a context of very high demographic growth, keeping the incidence of poverty at a level that is still high: (ii) a business climate unfavorable to promoting investments, employment, youth entrepreneurship, and creation of substantial added value; (iii) an institutional, administrative, and legal framework characterized by limited credibility and institutional instability as well as the limited ability of the administration to mobilize resources and use them efficiently to promote development; (iv) difficult environmental and climate conditions not conducive to sustainable food and nutritional security; (v) a security and defense situation that calls for vigilance due to instability in some neighboring countries and terrorist threats prejudicial to implementation of development actions in the field; (vi) limited competitiveness of the economy due in particular to its low degree of openness, limited diversification of productive activities, inadequate modern energy and transportation facilities and services, limited promotion of industries and large investments with catalyzing effects on the various branches of the economy; (vii) under-utilized mineral resources with a reduced impact on economic growth; (viii) very limited human capital (health, education) insufficient to contribute to human development; (ix) social protection systems with 67 little or no effect on improving the lot of the most vulnerable population groups; (x) insufficient consideration given to cross-cutting gender issues in policies and strategies; (xi) living and housing standards not conducive to improving the population’s well-being, in addition to difficult conditions in terms of access to safe drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation; and (xii) a strong inclination to handle only urgent humanitarian situations rather than be proactive in order to anticipate future needs and create the conditions for sustainable and inclusive development. I.6 ISSUES AND CHALLENGES In terms of the major findings indicated above, the principal challenges that Niger must face and for which implementation of the PDES should help to provide solutions are presented below: 1. Strengthening democracy and the rule of law; 2. Guaranteeing the integrity of national territory, ensuring the security of persons and property, and promoting consolidation of the peace in favor of development; 3. Strengthening national institutional capacities for effectively implementing development policies; 4. Ensuring environmental conservation and taking climate change into account; 5. Controlling demographic growth to make it compatible with the objectives of growth and access to public services; 6. Promoting balanced regional development; 7. Developing human capacities at the communal level and ensuring the transfer of financial resources to allow communities to gradually become empowered and be in a position to promote themselves; 8. Giving priority to full introduction, within a coherent operational framework, of tools for steering the economy, planning, execution, monitoring budgetary execution, and accountability; 9. Promoting subregional and regional integration while offering the country benefits and allowing it to assert its political and economic influence; 10. Ensuring transparent management and increased mobilization of domestic resources, particularly the results expected from the mining and oil sectors, as well as external resources, through innovative mechanisms, with a view to financing priority development actions; 11. Ensuring food security through increased agricultural productivity and controlling food product prices; 12. Promoting strong and sustained growth that is pro-poor, creates jobs, benefits the young, involves communities in the choice of development policies, and gives women the ability to enhance their empowerment; 13. Improving the competitiveness of the economy by ensuring a business-friendly environment, particularly better control of production factor costs, an adequate and continuous supply of electricity, control of transportation and communication services costs, the availability and maintenance of quality basic infrastructures, and better 68 participation by banks in the long-term financing of truly productive and wealth-creating activities. 14. Ensuring the population’s increased and equitable access to quality basic social services; 15. Ensuring social protection suitable to sustain the most vulnerable populations. 69 CHAPTER 2: STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN Building on lessons learned from the results of two decades of combating poverty, Niger is engaged in a new development strategy that seeks to accelerate inclusive growth and promote sustainable development, in an environment of good governance. This Economic and Social Development Plan involves a profound change in the design and implementation of policies and strategies in order to provide sustainable solutions to the limitations and challenges the country faces. Despite existing opportunities, Niger faces numerous and persistent challenges, particularly the challenge of promoting strong, lasting, and inclusive growth and sustainable development. Niger must also meet new challenges such as the consequences of climate change, in a context wherein rapid demographic growth threatens to significantly reduce national per capita income and weaken the system’s ability to meet social demand if population growth is not controlled over the medium and long term. The PDES is the unifying framework that provides consistency and coordinates all the frameworks guiding short- and medium-term, general, sectoral, topical, and local development. It is results- based and defines the strategic guidelines for Niger’s development. The diagnostic assessment indicated that the current average growth rate is insufficient to produce a significant reduction in poverty, increase job creation, and put together the conditions for sustainable and inclusive development. On this basis, the principal guideline focuses on solidifying the foundations of the economy and enhancing its potential to achieve an accelerated rate of growth, while pursuing the two-fold objective of improving incomes and creating jobs, and consolidating the foundations for sustainable development. At the same time, supplemental efforts will be directed to energizing the sustainable development process, the impact of which will continue beyond the period of the PDES. This development will be based on respect for the environment and the rules of good governance, modernization of the economic framework, and the emergence of a middle class, indicating achievement of the MDG on poverty reduction. In effect, the PDES will foster synergy among five dimensions of sustainable development: (i) improving the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions; (ii) creating the conditions for the sustainability of balanced and inclusive development; (iii) providing food security and sustainable agricultural development; (iv) promoting a competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth; and (v) fostering social development. 70 These strategic, coordinated, and complementary guidelines for addressing the problems of development will be implemented through sectoral programs and strategies. 2.1 STRATEGIC OBJECTIVES AND RESULTS OF THE PDES 2.1.1 The vision: The vision of the PDES is based on building an emerging country, constructed on the basis of a dynamic, diversified, sustainable, and harmonious economy throughout the country, a modern, democratic, native and well-governed republic, a nation rich in culture and shared values, a society open to the world and drawn to knowledge and technological innovation, prosperous, equitable, solidarity-based, unified, and in peace, and committed to promoting African integration. 2.1.2 Objective: The Economic and Social Development Plan seeks to promote the population’s economic, social, and cultural well-being. 2.1.3 Expected strategic results The principal strategic results of the PDES are: 1. The institutions of democracy and of the republic are credible, thanks to their strengthened capacity to effectively implement public policy and sustainable foothold. Efforts to strengthen a democratic and civilian state, on which everything else is contingent, will be pursued. The government must have the capacities needed to ensure that all citizens have a better life blessed with liberty, equality, justice, and solidarity. Strong institutions are a prerequisite for the rule of law and protect it from arbitrary action, so that the law governs relations among citizens on the one hand and relations between citizens and the government on the other. In order to promote all these values, allowing all citizens to enjoy their rights (political, economic, and social) while carrying out their duties, power must be exercised democratically. Access to government services, to government employment, and to government markets must be guaranteed and equal for all. By the same token, merit, competence, ethics, a sense of public service, enthusiasm and punctuality at work, professionalism, discipline, team spirit, and a sense of hierarchy and employee performance in a context of results-based management will be reestablished as criteria for accessing government jobs and promotions. Steps will be taken to create an environment and conditions favorable to increased productivity among government employees and to combat 71 practices that weigh on the effectiveness of government action, such as corruption, preferential treatment, influence peddling, and the misappropriation of public funds. Good governance, particularly transparency, in the utilization of resources, will be reinforced in order to increase the mobilization of domestic resources with a view to financing the priority agenda of economic and social development based on revenues derived from the mining and petroleum industry. Revenues accumulated thanks to good negotiations in the extractive industries sector, by being properly distributed and allocated to national priorities, will help Nigeriens to flourish, particularly through the development of basic public services and improved access to those services. 2. Citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services through strengthening of the rule of law, guaranteeing and improving public services for citizens throughout the country, and eliminating various forms of discrimination. To achieve this, the government must reestablish the enforcement of general law and civic duties, particularly effective and widespread compliance with taxation, which is currently highly eroded by all kinds of fraud. It is essential to reestablish equitable and equal treatment of citizens by all administrative institutions, particularly tax services and the justice system. 3. The management of development is facilitated, particularly by fully implementing tools for steering the economy, planning, execution, monitoring budgetary execution and accountability, transparent management, and mobilization of domestic resources, particularly expected benefits from the mining and petroleum sectors, as well as external resources, using innovative mechanisms to finance priority development actions, all within a coherent operational framework harmonized at the regional level. This will also mean establishing planning functions within each ministerial department and other government institutions to ensure a coordinated approach (planning, programming, budgeting) that will guarantee continuity in discussions among the sectoral ministries, the Ministry of Planning, and the Ministry of Finance. In addition, monitoring and evaluation is part of all mechanisms, allowing improved implementation of development policies and strategies. In a results-based management approach, identification and implementation of a consistent and relevant information system is the key to success. Thus, in the context of the PDES, a monitoring and evaluation mechanism will be set up to measure and evaluate the short- and medium-term effects of government actions and subsequently to ensure their consistency with the PDES and increase the prospects for their successful implementation. 72 4. Citizens’ desires for security are satisfied. Achieving this goal will require securing the entire country, ensuring the security of persons and property, and promoting the consolidation of peace in favor of development by strengthening mechanisms for consolidation of the peace and prevention of conflicts as well as regional cooperation. To ensure national security and contribute to security in the subregion, a comprehensive security, administrative, economic, and social solution is necessary. This will involve designing and implementing an improved administrative framework and correcting intra- and inter-regional imbalances in the area of economic and social development. Reestablishing the government’s monopoly over the armed forces, the only institution that is supposed to have weapons, is a priority. Providing the Defense and Security Forces (FDS) with qualified and well-trained human resources as well as the sufficient quantity and quality of equipment is necessary for this purpose. 5. Environmental resources are preserved and sustainably managed by reversing trends toward environmental degradation and strengthening measures to adapt to the negative effects of climate change. 6. Inter- and intra-regional disparities are mitigated, particularly to promote harmonious distribution of the population by ensuring balanced relations between urban and rural areas and supporting the emergence of regional development hubs. Achievement of this result basically seeks to ensure equity in human development indicators in the regions. It also seeks to give the country an institutional framework and geographic planning tools to reduce inter- and intra-regional disparities and disparities between urban and rural areas. This means making regions more accountable in the coordination and harmonization of development actions, strengthening their management capabilities, and encouraging them to specialize based on their comparative advantages. 7. The levers of demographic growth are controlled by promoting a changed mentality and behaviors suitable to induce in the population a significant increase in the use of contraception, a reduction in early marriages, and better knowledge of the relationship between population and development. 8. Nigeriens sustainably ensure their food security by increasing and diversifying agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production, providing rural and urban markets with agricultural and food products on a regular basis, improving the resilience of vulnerable groups facing climate change, and improving the population’s nutritional status in a context of controlled demographic growth. Food security will be assured through implementation of the 3N Initiative of “Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens.� 73 The mobilization of surface water (Niger River, Goulbis, Koramas, lakes, and seas), the utilization of immense underground water reserves, control of runoff, use of available irrigable land, and modernization of agriculture and livestock will ensure that recurring droughts will no longer be synonymous with famine. In addition, increasing agricultural productivity will necessarily involve measures to facilitate farmers’ access to inputs. 9. Economic growth is strong and sustained, inclusive, and job-creating, particularly through improved competitiveness based a business-friendly environment, better control of production factor costs, an adequate and continued supply of electricity, control of transportation and communication services costs, the availability and maintenance of quality basic infrastructures, and increased participation of banks in the long-term financing of truly productive and wealth-creating activities. The rebirth of Niger requires a competitive economy. Besides agricultural development, the PDES seeks to promote reduced costs for production factors that are important for a landlocked country, namely transportation, communications, and energy. For the first factor, achieving this goal will involve not only consolidating existing roads and developing new paved and dirt roads, but also promoting rail and improving air transport. For the second factor, all available sources of energy will be developed, namely water, coal, solar, wind, fuel, and nuclear power within a regional context. Completion of the Kandadji hydroelectric dam and the mining and processing of coal from Salkadamna are part of this approach. The development of infrastructures will be one of the solid foundations for generating growth and will increase the appeal of developing our underground resources so as to achieve the break-even point on certain deposits that cannot currently be developed on a profitable basis. Other resources, including iron, phosphates, and marble, can be added to the uranium, gold, coal, cement, and petroleum that are already being developed. Niger has abundant underground resources that must be developed in the interest of both current and future generations. This will thus mean attracting, guiding, and shaping investments toward the development of natural wealth that is shared and profitable for all, based on win-win ratios. 10. Young people are integrated in the economic cycle, particularly through the development of jobs generated by economic growth and young people’s access to these jobs, the pursuit of entrepreneurship among young people, development of general, technical, and vocational educational quality, and development of the teacher’s role within society. 74 Young people (graduates for whom school has been followed by unemployment, and untrained rural and urban youth who are idle and may thus be easily led astray) represent a major resource for the future of Niger. In addition, besides improved education, they will be provided with specific tools to develop their full potential. 11. The level of social development is significantly improved, particularly by ensuring that the population has better access to basic social services and by implementing a social protection policy that includes an appropriate action plan targeting the most vulnerable populations. Access to education, health, and safe drinking water are priorities. Education will be free and compulsory up to the age of sixteen (16). Vocational and technical education will be given priority and developed. The government will ensure that school, as the fundamental social basis for development, and a means for fulfilling aspirations par excellence, makes an effective contribution to equal opportunity and reduced inequalities based on gender. It will also ensure that the pressure of demand due to excessive and sustained population growth is reduced. Actions will be undertaken in response to the demand for health and improved access to health care. To improve access to safe drinking water, the existing infrastructures will be rehabilitated and new requirements will gradually be met by developing new infrastructures. Such initiatives will also involve reducing poverty among women and the disabled, by promoting their inclusion in economic life and improving urban living conditions for them. 2.2 STRATEGIC GUIDELINES OF THE PDES Five strategic pillars are identified for addressing the challenges and issues of economic and social development. They are: (i) improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions; (ii) the conditions for the sustainability of balanced and inclusive development; (iii) food security and sustainable agricultural development; (iv) promotion of a competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth; and (v) promotion of social development. These strategic pillars are complementary and interdependent. They form a consistent whole the realization of which should allow Niger to meet the objectives and results sought by Niger’s Renaissance Program and the government’s General Policy Statement, as shown below. 75 Figure 3: Strategic results and pillars of the PDES 2012-2015 1.1 Management of development is facilitated 1.2 Equity and citizen equality with respect to public services are guaranteed 1.3 Democratic and republican institutions are credible 2.1 Citizens’ aspirations to security are satisfied 2.2 The levers of demographic growth are controlled 2.3 Environmental resources are preserved and managed sustainably 2.4 Intra- and inter-regional disparities are mitigated 3.1 Nigeriens sustainably ensure their food and nutritional security 4.1 Economic growth is sustainable and diversified 4.2 Young people are integrated in economic life 5.1 The level of social development is significantly improved Center: Population’s standard of living is significantly improved 76 Table 5: PDES consistency with the Renaissance Program and the DPG Pillars of the Renaissance Program Pillars of the DPG Pillars of the PDES Strategic Results of the PDES Management of development is Pillar 1. Build strong, credible, and sustainable 1. Promotion of Pillar 2: Improving the credibility facilitated democratic institutions good governance and effectiveness of public Citizens are guaranteed equitable and institutions equal access to public services Democratic and republican institutions are credible Pillar 7. Significantly improve social indicators (education and health) 2. Promotion of Pillar 5. Promotion of social The level of social development is Pillar 5. Ensure access to safe drinking water for social development significantly improved all through rehabilitation and construction of development urban, rural, and pastoral hydraulic projects Pillar 3. Promote social development through public investments Pillar 4. Ensure food security through the 3N Pillar 3: Food security and Nigeriens sustainably ensure their Initiative (Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens) sustainable agricultural food and nutritional security 3. Promotion of a development Pillar 3. Relaunch the economy through public growth economy investments and sustainable Pillar 4: Competitive and Economic growth is sustainable and Pillar 6. Develop infrastructures and energy by development diversified economy for diversified investing in roads, rural roads, electricity, and accelerated and inclusive growth railroads Pillar 8. Create jobs for youth Youth are integrated in economic life Citizens’ aspirations to security are Pillar 2. Ensure the security of persons and 1. Promotion of Pillar 1: Conditions for satisfied property throughout the country good governance sustainability of balanced and The levers of demographic growth inclusive development are controlled Environmental resources are preserved and managed sustainably Intra- and inter-regional disparities are mitigated. Analysis of consistency among the strategic pillars of the PDES Based on the constraints and challenges identified in the context of work done on the sectoral diagnostic assessments, the five pillars proposed reflect, on the whole, the principal dimensions of human development (social, economic, environmental, and governance-related). They are intertwined to address the challenges of multi-sectoral sustainable development. The first strategic pillar seeks to promote improvement of the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions. This pillar, which is cross-cutting in scope, contributes to the achievement of strategic results under the other four strategic pillars of the PDES. For this pillar, the PDES targets the following specific objectives: (i) improved management of public finances; (ii) strengthened steering of the economy; (iii) consolidated democratic and civilian institutions; (iv) promotion of justice and human rights; (v) local governance and decentralization; and (vi) effective and modernized government administration. The second strategic pillar focuses on establishing the conditions for sustainability of balanced and inclusive development. This pillar, which is also cross-cutting in scope, is a precondition to achievement of strategic results under the other four strategic pillars of the PDES. In effect, the targeted objectives relate to the fact that no sustainable, balanced, and inclusive development is possible without developing strategies in the areas of human security, territorial defense, respect and promotion for human rights, consolidation of national unity, prevention and management of humanitarian crises, and adaptation between social demand and supply to take the constraint of limited resources into account. The following objectives are pursued: (i) guaranteed citizen security and national unity; (ii) better control of demographic growth; (iii) control of the sustainable management of the environment and the effects of climate change; and (iv) balanced regional development. The third strategic pillar focuses on promoting of food security and sustainable agricultural development. Considering the relative importance of the rural sector in the economic system, revival of that sector is such that it contributes to the achievement of job-creating economic growth. Moreover, specific consideration given to the population’s resilience37 contributes to the sustainability and inclusive nature of development as well as the promotion of social development (pillars 1 and 5). The strategic results correspond to the intervention pillars of the 3N Initiative. This means: (i) growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries production; (ii) regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural, forestry, livestock and fisheries products; (iii) improved resilience of vulnerable groups to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters; (iv) improved nutritional status of Nigeriens; and (v) organization and coordination of the 3N Initiative. The fourth strategic pillar seeks to promote a competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth. The aim is to increase national wealth and citizens’ buying power, to develop growth potential to create gainful employment, particularly for young people, 37 Referring to the ability to anticipate, manage, and recover from shocks, deal with vulnerabilities, and restore essential functions efficiently and on a timely basis. in the sectors that drive economic growth such as agroindustry, the environment, the mining sector, particularly through their potential knock-on effects on other areas such as services, while promoting entrepreneurship among young people. The inclusive nature of growth will allow all to participate in the creation of added value and to share in the fruits of growth in a fair and equitable way. The strategic results focus on; (i) promotion of the business climate, particularly to create conditions for promoting investments and developing services, factors in the sustainability of development; (ii) development of transportation and communication infrastructures; (iii) development of productive sectors (other than the agricultural, forestry, livestock sector) such as industry, BPW, or mines; and (iv) the economic integration of young people. The fifth economic pillar focuses on the promotion of social development. It has been broken down into 12 strategic results as follows: (i) promoting health through efficient implementation of the PDS; (ii) development of the educational system at all levels of instruction, including technical and vocational education; (iii) implementation of the social protection policy adopted by the government in 2011; (iv) pursuit of efforts to combat inequalities and strengthen gender equity; (v) promotion of a healthy standard of living; (vi) improved access to safe drinking water and sanitation; (vii) development of the practice of sports for individual health and professionalization of the sector; (viii) development of arts and cultural assets; (ix) promotion of tourism activities; (x) development of young people through implementation of the priority actions of the youth sector development strategy; (xi) intensification of efforts to eradicate STIs/HIV/AIDS; and (xii) protecting children against violence, exploitation, and abuse by implementing the framework document and its action plan. This demonstrates the cross-cutting nature of this strategic pillar and its links to strategic pillars 2, 3, and 4 of the PDES. 82 Table 6: Strategic Pillars and Results of the PDES Strategic Results Strategic Pillars Content (results deriving from the Renaissance Program and the diagnostic assessment) 1. Democratic and civilian institutions Public finances management are credible 2. Management of development is 1. Improvement of the Steering of the economy facilitated credibility and 3. Citizens are guaranteed equitable effectiveness of public Consolidation of constitutional institutions and equal access to public services institutions Justice and human rights Local governance Effectiveness of public administration 1. Environmental resources are Security and defense, national unity, and consolidation of the peace sustainably preserved and managed 2. Conditions for Demography 2. Inter- and intra-regional sustainability of balanced inequalities are mitigated and inclusive Environment and climate change, prevention and management of crises and 3. Citizens’ aspirations to security are development disasters satisfied 4. The levers of demographic growth Regional development are controlled 1. Nigeriens sustainably ensure their Growth and diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries food and nutritional security production 3. Food security and sustainable agricultural Regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural, forestry, development livestock and fisheries products Improved resilience of groups vulnerable to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters Strategic Results Strategic Pillars Content (results deriving from the Renaissance Program and the diagnostic assessment) Improved nutritional status of Nigeriens Organization and coordination of the 3N Initiative 1. Economic growth is strong and Business climate continued, sustainable and 4. Competitive and inclusive diversified economy for Economic and institutional infrastructures 2. Young people are integrated in accelerated and inclusive economic life growth Productive sectors other than agriculture Economic integration of young people Health and nutrition Combating STIs/HIV/AIDS Education, instruction, technical and vocational training Social protection 1. The level of social development is 5. Promotion of social significantly improved development Inequality and gender equity Living standard Water and sanitation Sports, culture Social activities of young people 84 2.2.1 Pillar 1: Improving the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions Accelerated growth and sustainable development can only be achieved if institutions are established that guarantee political stability and respect for property rights and contracts so that individuals are encouraged to invest and participate in economic life. The implementation of various democratic reforms and adoption of the Constitution of the Seventh Republic have allowed Niger to lay the foundations for democratic renewal, help calm the political situation, and consolidate the stability of the Republic’s institutions. The implementation of development policies (macroeconomic and sectoral) is based on a certain number of guiding principles, particularly a democratic foundation, a participatory approach, decentralization, transparency in management through accountability, and the duty to report. These guiding principles are based on the mechanisms, relations, and institutions by means of which citizens and social groups express their interests, exercise their rights, and shoulder their obligations and to which they go to settle their disputes. This pillar covers the components of good political, legal, economic, administrative, and local government in particular, the consolidation of constitutional institutions, justice and human rights, rational and transparent management of public finances, the steering of the economy, the effectiveness of public administration, and the management of communities. The credibility of the Republic’s institutions will be ensured by: (i) normal operation of the bodies established by the Constitution; (ii) respect for the rule of law and democratic rules of play and a mechanism for improved operation of state institutions; and (iii) better dialogue and collaboration with civil society actors. Economic governance seeks to reestablish efficient public financial management and public policy planning and coordination instruments through which it will be possible to reconcile the implementation of development objectives and the improvement of domestic resources. The reform of public finance management will be implemented particularly through: (i) improvement of the legal framework; (ii) increased capacities for mobilizing resources; (iii) improvement in the preparation and methods for executing the government’s budget; (iv) regular accounting and financial reporting; (v) development of information systems; (vi) improved control and transparency of government finances; (vii) enhanced cash and debt management; and (viii) improvement of the public procurement and management system. The coordination of development actions will be provided for and improved by enhancing the consistency of planning and budgeting instruments and improving the quality of instruments for coordinating and monitoring/evaluating public policies. The objective of local governance is to strengthen local governments’ ability to ensure sustainable and balanced development in accordance with national decentralization policy and the provisions of the local government code. In the area of administrative governance, the objective is to improve the quality and performance of public services by developing appropriate management and monitoring tools and instruments and effectively improving administrative operations. Moreover, particular attention will be paid to ensuring the effective decentralization of government services in coordination with local governments. For civil service employees in particular, this involves bringing about a profound change of attitude so they can provide public services to citizens more effectively. In addition, in its relationships with individuals and private institutions, the administration should act as the facilitator and provider of all services that can be expected of a modern, accessible, and responsible administration. In the area of legal and judicial governance, the objective is to improve the operations of the legal and judicial system by instilling morality in the judicial sector, optimizing the existing legal and judicial apparatus, and modernizing the frameworks for the intervention and operation of justice. 2.2.2 Pillar 2: Creation of the conditions for sustainable, balanced, and inclusive development The sustainable management of development requires assigning high priority to the nation’s security and defense, national unity and consolidation of the peace, the control of demographic growth, the management of environmental resources and adaptation to climate change, as well as to inter- and intra-regional development. Securing the integrity of the country and the security of its citizens and property constitute the central objective of national defense and security (a vital prerequisite for implementing development policies). To achieve this, a policy of increased national security will be implemented and resources will be deployed to reduce instability and insecurity. There are also plans to establish preferential relationships with neighboring countries, to strengthen cooperation with friendly countries, and to help define a common security policy for the countries of the Sahel-Saharan zone. To this end, the government has formulated and adopted a Security and Development Strategy in the Sahel-Saharan zones revolving around the following pillars: (i) strengthened security of persons and property; (ii) population’s access to economic opportunities; (iii) population’s access to basic social services; (iv) strengthened local governance; and (v) socioeconomic integration of returnees. National unity has been sorely tested by armed rebellions affecting the northern and eastern portions of the country. Other types of threats also weigh on the country, particularly armed conflicts between communities, threats from criminal organizations involved in trafficking drugs, weapons, and cigarettes, armed robbery, highway robbery, and threats from terrorist groups, particularly those based in neighboring countries. Rebellions have had traumatic effects on the population and the aftermath continues to disrupt the development of affected areas. Promoting 86 a culture of peace within the various national communities is thus a transition required for effective renewal of the national development process. Given these varied threats, the option is to strengthen the ability of the Defense and Security Forces to combat the proliferation of firearms, armed banditry, and cattle rustling on the one hand, and to raise awareness and intensify actions to prevent and dissuade in areas potentially exposed to various threats and other inter-community disputes between herders and farmers on the other. Population issues are very important in economic development. They will be addressed by controlling demographic growth and strengthening stakeholders’ ability to take demographic data into account in development policies, plans, and programs. The overall objective is to produce an attitude and behaviors suitable for encouraging population groups to significantly increase their use of contraception and reduce the number of early marriages. With these behavioral changes, it will be possible to trigger a gradual slowdown in the country’s demographic growth, to slow down social demand, and thus to facilitate generalized access to economic and social development. In terms of the environment, the principal challenge is to break with inappropriate utilization of resources and to ensure that measures designed to accompany the country’s development do not compromise the needs of future generations. To this end, appropriate measures will be taken with regard to various aspects of the environment. First of all, this will mean finding alternatives to using wood as a source of energy so as to mitigate losses of forest resources. This could also be of benefit in improving agricultural and livestock production systems. Projected improvements should offset the fragility of agricultural ecosystems covering seven million hectares currently under cultivation through methods that restore soil fertility, use less acreage, and produce less erosion from wind and water, and reduce desertification. Along the same lines, the pastoral area of the north and the lands reserved for pasture in agricultural areas should be used sustainably so as to save them from deterioration and desertification. By preserving and mobilizing significant runoff, surface, and underground water, it will be possible to ensure successful agricultural, forestry, and livestock production and provide population groups with safe drinking water. Preserving the biological diversity of flora and fauna and protecting the real wealth of genetic resources should help to improve agricultural, forestry, and livestock resources, both through strong awareness-building efforts on the national level and in the context of international scientific and technological cooperation. Strengthening measures for adapting to climate change should, particularly through the development and transfer of non-polluting and environmentally friendly technologies, ensure 87 increased capacities for gathering, processing, and disseminating data, and carrying out actions in the area of information, awareness-building, and education of the population on the dimensions of climate change. Implementing a balanced regional and local development policy and establishing a true land management policy as the geographic expression of the country’s economic, social, cultural, and environmental policies will be conditions for strong, sustainable, and inclusive growth. In effect, this means organizing land use, ensuring consistency in the installation of large infrastructure projects, public equipment, and metropolitan areas. This determines long-term spatial management by ensuring the intra- and inter-regional balance of development activities and levels. These policies should be based on three guiding and closely linked principles of intervention as follows: (i) economic and social development through a land management policy that contributes to food security by developing economic activities organized on an integrated basis; (ii) national integration seeking to reduce inter- and intra-regional disparities on the one hand and disparities between urban and rural areas on the other; (iii) the preservation and utilization of natural resources for sustainable management of the natural environment, i.e., the continuing search for a compromise between present and future generations in the development of environmental resources. 2.2.3 Pillar 3: Food security and sustainable agricultural development Despite significant resources invested in the rural development sector, shortages of food products persist and subject population groups to food insecurity. To reverse this trend, the authorities of the Seventh Republic decided to implement the 3N Initiative, Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens. The initiative expresses the collective belief that with its assets and the development opportunities they offer to the country, Niger is able to meet current and future food and nutritional security challenges, begin to truly modernize its systems of production, and allow its agricultural sector to play a major role in economic growth. It is addressing the root causes of food and nutritional insecurity, while proposing suitable responses to the emergency situations and economically precarious conditions that a significant segment of the population could face. The 3N Initiative specifically focuses on the efforts needed to improve the nutritional status of vulnerable groups. This improvement, besides consumption, depends to a large extent on eating habits and practices of care at the family and community level. The Initiative’s objective is to “strengthen national food production capacities, provisioning, and resilience in the face of food crises and natural disasters.� It involves ensuring sufficient amounts and quality of food for all Nigeriens based essentially on local production, a national and regional agricultural market, and on households’ ability to be resilient in food crisis and disaster situations. Four strategic pillars were identified for achieving the I3N objective: (i) growth and 88 diversification of agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fisheries production; (ii) regular provisioning of rural and urban markets with agricultural and food products; (iii) population groups’ improved resilience in the face of climate change, crises, and disasters; and (iv) improved nutritional status. Box 2: The 3N Initiative: Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens The 3N Initiative (I3N) is a coherent set of regulatory measures and investment actions to be implemented over the short, medium, and long term. They should allow Niger to make a qualitative leap in terms of governance, in terms of investments for the rural development sector, and in terms of local agri-food and agricultural, forestry, and livestock product trade sectors. With these investments, it will be possible to bring the supply of agricultural and agri-food products in line with ever-increasing and increasingly urgent demands for product quality. The initiative contributes to the effective exercise of the right to food as recognized by Article 12 of the Constitution of the Seventh Republic of Niger. The I3N initiative is part of the process of implementing the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program (CAADP), the ECOWAS common agricultural policy (ECOWAP), and the WAEMU agricultural policy (WAP) and will allow the country to speed up its achievement of the MDGs, particularly MDG1 (eradicate extreme poverty and hunger) and MDG7 (ensure environmental sustainability), while taking into account the challenges involved in controlling demographic pressure and adapting to climate change. The I3N proposes to promote models of agricultural intensification and sustainable natural resource management that will make it possible to increase the availability of animal products and by-products (meat, milk, eggs, leather, and skins), widely-consumed food products (grains, vegetables, tubers), and/or high added value products. This means better utilization of the assets and comparative advantages of the agricultural and rural sectors while integrating them in the national, or world, economy and preserving productive capital. The guiding principles of I3N intervention are: (i) targeting of actions and support at the level of towns, agricultural villages, and family farms; (ii) consideration of gender and specific groups in all actions; (iii) targeting to optimize investments; (iv) sustainability of the productive base through promotion of sustainable practices for the use of natural resources and adaptation to climate change; (v) mobilization and accountability of all stakeholder groups, at all stages in the process of design and implementation, with attention to farmers’ organizations, women, and youth. Actions could be financed through: (i) conventional public financing systems (government budget, local budgets, official development assistance, common funds, support or grant funds, etc.) or private financing systems (bank loans, microfinance loans, contributions from communities, farmers’ organizations, civil society, companies, etc.) and (ii) new financing approaches such as the Investment Fund for Food and Nutritional Security and public-private partnerships. 89 2.2.4 Pillar 4: Competitive and diversified economy for accelerated and inclusive growth Given its enormous potential in terms of resources, particularly human, water, and mining resources, Niger is in a position to avoid enduring the extreme volatility of its production and its quasi-exclusive dependence on rainfall variations in the implementation of its economic policy. To reverse this trend, the PDES sets itself the objective of creating the conditions for normal economic growth averaging at least seven percent and an average inflation rate of no more than three percent over the period. In addition, household consumption will be supported by an appropriate income policy. Measures will be taken to substantially increase the effectiveness of public spending and domestic and external resources. With a broad program of structural public investments (Kandadji hydroelectric dam, gas-fired power station, roads, rail, etc.), it will be possible to stimulate growth, structure the national productive apparatus, and reduce the country’s isolation. This growth should facilitate the creation of decent modern-sector jobs. The guidelines for this pillar relate to improving the business climate, developing external relations, improving the competitiveness of economic sectors, and developing young people’s participation in economic activity. Improving the business climate requires simplifying the regulatory framework applicable to business, improving the legal and judicial system, facilitating access to financing by revising the role and activity of banks, and facilitating and encouraging the creation and development of micro, small, and medium enterprise. In addition, measures encouraging the private sector will be implemented to facilitate the emergence of a dynamic private economic framework, such as facilitating business creation and administrative routines in general, granting targeted incentives for entrepreneurs, and reducing abnormally high costs. Improving the quality and maintenance of hydraulic, electrical, highway, and communication infrastructures will help to improve the business climate and the competitiveness of productive units. With respect to external relations, it is important to capitalize on regional integration with the WAEMU and ECOWAS countries, particularly in terms of export development. This also means seizing opportunities for trade with areas outside these communities. It will also mean strengthening the institutional and organizational framework of industrial, energy, petroleum, and mining activities, reducing production costs in industry, increasing the promotion of national energy and oil resources, integrating the mining sector into the national economy, and developing small-scale mining operations. 90 With regard to the transportation sector, the guidelines seek to develop investments in air transport, bring airports up to standard, strengthen the monitoring of air transport services, strengthen administrative capacities in transportation, improve the quality of land transportation through road safety, renewal of the fleet, and professionalization of the sector, extend and improve the road network, and introduce rail transport. In the tourism sector, this means ensuring better knowledge of tourism assets by strengthening tools for communication and promoting local, regional, and national destinations, encouraging investments in tourism, and maximizing and equitably distributing the economic benefits of tourism. For the artisanal trades, this means developing artisanal products, developing trade channels, and supporting the search for new markets. For inclusive growth, the objective of the national youth policy is to promote the economic integration of young people and their full participation in economic activities and to include the youth component in all sectoral programs and policies. 2.2.5 Pillar 5: Promotion of social development In order to build on gains made in the area of social development, particular attention will be paid to the points below in an effort to improve access to basic social services, particularly through rational utilization of domestic financial resources. In the area of social protection, the objective is to reduce the vulnerability of the population and disadvantaged groups in particular. To do this, social safety nets must be expanded to include all levels. For education, teaching, and vocational and technical training, the objective is to qualitatively and quantitatively develop the supply of education, to adapt training to labor market demand, and to promote the use of results from scientific research and technological innovation. In the area of water and sanitation, the objective is to improve the supply of drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation services in local communities and to promote changed behavior at the individual and community level. In the area of public health, the objective is to provide quality care and services to the population, particularly vulnerable groups, while adhering to international standards by: (i) expanding health coverage; (ii) developing reproductive health services; (iii) staffing health facilities with skilled and motivated human resources based on need; (iv) providing continuous access to medications, vaccines, consumables, food and treatment inputs, reagents, blood, and derivatives; (v) intensifying efforts to combat diseases subject to integrated surveillance; (vi) strengthening governance and ethics at all levels of the health system; (vii) developing health 91 sector financing mechanisms; (viii) promoting research in health; and (ix) promoting health at the community level. Improving the population’s standard of living means promoting a spatial planning policy along with urban and rural development plans, preparing master plans for management of basic urban services (transportation, drainage, solid waste), and supporting local governments in the collection of household waste. To promote gender equality and equity and human rights, the objective is to build, with all stakeholders, a non-discriminatory society where men and women, boys and girls, have the same opportunities to participate in development and enjoy the benefits of growth. This objective will be achieved by: (i) equitable promotion of the situation and social position of men and women within the family and in the community; (ii) equitable promotion of the potential and status of women and men within the household economy, particularly through the development of a strategy giving women access to financing; (iii) strengthening the effective enforcement of the rights of women, girls, and the disabled; (iv) combating gender-based violence; and (v) equitable participation by men and women in the management of power; and (vi) strengthening the institutional framework’s intervention capacities with respect to government structures, civil society, and the private sector. With respect to human rights, the objective is to guarantee legal equity by ensuring the full enjoyment of human rights. The objective of implementing the national youth policy is to promote young people’s integration in social life by developing adapted education and supporting socioeconomic integration initiatives. 92 CHAPTER 3. SECTORAL STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS Based on an analysis of the development strategies implemented over the past two decades, and taking into account the cross-cutting issues critical to its development, Niger has embarked on a new development strategy focusing on accelerated growth and the promotion of sustainable development. This strategy, based on the Niger Renaissance Program, is defined in the current Economic and Social Development Plan [PDES]. The Plan is centered on the harmonious coordination of development efforts, to harness all of the country’s areas of potential for the benefit of the entire population, and to ensure participation of all stakeholders in national development. As the PDES is the frame of reference for all development activities, it is the sectoral policies that will ensure that its pillars are operational, and the following strategic guidelines are developed with that aim in view. 3.1. GENERAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS The macroeconomic outlook is an important frame of reference that shows how the different economic equilibria will be jointly achieved. It is also a summary of the different investment programs and the reforms and measures recommended in the medium or short term. Thus it provides a framework to ensure that economic policy initiatives are consistent. In order to take both internal and external risk factors into account, three macroeconomic framework scenarios have been prepared. The three scenarios are based on a proactive government policy, which is geared to implementing all of the measures and reforms described in the action programs and which aspires to maximizing investment, by giving a strong boost to public investment so that it can serve as an incentive for private investment. The scenarios are primarily based on assumptions regarding risk factors that do not depend on government decisions, such as climate risks and natural disasters, and risks linked to the international and regional situation, hence to risks related to financing of the PDES. Whichever scenario plays out, the government will take the appropriate steps to deal with these exogenous factors of the internal and external environment, as well as other risks described in Chapter 4, by anticipating strategies to mitigate them. Thus, aside from the baseline scenario that assumes a prolongation of recent trends in climate conditions and in global and regional economic conditions, a more optimistic scenario in certain areas and a pessimistic or low-growth scenario have also been developed. The macroeconomic framework (baseline scenario) is predicated on favorable growth prospects. 93 Launching oil exports will lead to strong growth in 2012, as high as 11.6 percent. Growth in 2013-15 will be sustained by investments in the new uranium mines, the upswing in uranium production and exports, and development of the oil sector. Table 7. Growth Scenarios (in percentages) Years Baseline Scenario High-Growth Scenario Low-Growth Scenario 2012 11.6 12.4 10.5 2013 6.8 8.6 4.8 2014 7.0 8.6 4.6 2015 6.5 9.3 4.9 Average 8.0 9.7 6.2 Export forecasts for these two products during the period covered by the Plan show that exports more than double during the four years of the PDES (from CFAF 605 billion en 2011 to CFAF 1,248 billion in 2015), as illustrated in the following graph: Figure 4. Estimated exports: 2011-2015 (in billions of CFAF) ____ Oil ____ Uranium ____ Others ____ Total Moreover, the proactive policy announced by the PDES will be put into action through the planned increase in investment spending, which will rise from 7 percent of GDP in 2011 to 26 percent of GDP in 2015, and an average of 20.4 percent of GDP over the span of the Plan. This increase in public investment will be accompanied by incentives and reforms in the government and public services. Other measures related to an improved business climate will encourage private national and foreign investors, and lead to a significant hike in investment (GFCF). It should grow from 30 percent of GDP prior to 2010 to 44.7 percent by 2015. The following table shows the development of public and private investment rates during the period covered by the Plan. 94 Table 8. Change in investment rates by economic agent from 2012 to 2015 (as a percentage of GDP) Years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 GFCF Investment 37.6 36.4 4.1 43.6 44.7 Investment expenditures 6.9 10.3 20.0 25.2 26.2 Public GFCF 4.4 6.2 13.0 15.1 15.7 Private investment 33.2 30.2 28.0 29.5 29 Foreign direct investment 15.9 14.5 7.9 7.0 7.0 Local investment 17.2 15.7 20.1 21.5 22.0 This proactive policy will also be reflected in implementation of all of the reforms and measures programmed for the four-year period in all sectors. This process is also expected to be replicated in the internal and external financial frameworks developed. Thus, the 2012-2015 Economic and Social Development Plan is designed to boost the growth rate of the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to approximately 8 percent a year on average, and to maintain the public deficit and the external current deficit at tolerable levels. This growth of GDP will also have a positive effect on the standard of living, as evaluated by the volume of per capita consumption, which is expected to improve by an average 5 percent a year, and on investment in the social sectors. 3.1.1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) An evaluation of economic growth shows that the average annual rate of growth in the real economy was nearly 3.8 percent from 2000 to 2010. One of the objectives of the PDES is to considerably raise the real GDP growth rate. The sectors considered to lead growth during the 4-year plan are extractive industries (petroleum and uranium), agriculture, forestry, and livestock production, and tertiary sectors, especially trade and transportation, which will be expected to respond to the needs that will be generated by the growth of the first two sectors. Economic growth will therefore be sustained by the advancement of the primary sector, at an annual average of 7.4 percent. This will result from an increase in irrigated land, a rise of farm yields due to introduction of new seed varieties adapted to the effects of climate change and drought, and innovative production techniques, as well more effective investments in crops and livestock production. It will also stem from the predicted development of forestry during the period of the Plan. This growth of the primary sector is supported by the expected performance of the programs implemented under the 3N Initiative, which should make this sector one of the major sources of growth in the coming years. It is the secondary sector that will be the driving force of the dynamic economy, with a growth rate predicted to average 12.5 percent a year. This performance will rely on the growth of exports, especially from extractive industries. The added value of this sector will grow at an 95 average annual rate of more than 20 percent. Other subsectors, such as manufacturing and processing industries, energy, and construction and public works, while not the engines of the expected growth, will also contribute to it to a lesser extent, especially as a result of the spill-over effect of oil refining operations. In this scenario, the renewed activity would benefit from an average annual growth rate of 3 percent for processing industries, and the agrifood industry in particular. Moreover, the electric power sector is expected to record an annual average growth rate of 5.5 percent, while the construction and public works sector would advance at an impressive average annual rate of 9 percent during the Plan. These conditions would make it possible for needs to be met by the sharp rise in investments expected over the period covered by the Plan. As for the tertiary sector, its added value would grow by nearly 7 percent per year on average during the 2012-2015 period, with market services estimated at 8 percent, dominated by transportation and communications, and the trade sector. Nonmarket services of the general government would grow by as much as 10 percent, with the scheduled rise in public investment and the major infrastructure projects in the pipeline. The trade and transportation branches will accompany the strong performance of the other productive sectors, which will need them to support their production processes. The growth of these branches will also be stimulated by the road construction program and the opening of access to various communes stipulated in the Plan. The informal sector will continue to play a considerable role in achieving the expected growth objectives. In fact, its importance is clearly seen in its share of the gross domestic product, estimated to average 68 percent over the 2007-2011 period.38 This sector will achieve an annual average growth of nearly 7.5 percent during the Plan. 38 Economic accounts, 2012 INS. 96 Table 9. Gross Domestic Product (in billions of CFAF and as a percentage) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012-15 GDP at market prices 3,004.40 3,503.79 3,850.57 4,227.23 4,623.39 4,051,25 (billions of current CFAF) GDP at market prices 6,382.80 7,477.09 8,100.82 8,699.91 9,374.25 8,413.02 (millions of current US$) GDP at market prices (millions 4,580.13 5,341.49 5,870.16 6,444.38 7,048.31 6,176.09 of euros) GDP deflator 4.80% 4.50% 2.90% 2.60% 2.60% 3.15% Share of the informal sector 68.90% 68.20% 68.00% 67.90% 67.40% 67.90% in GDP (% of GDP) Real growth rate of GDP 2.10% 11.60% 6.80% 7.00% 6.60% 8.00% at market prices Real growth rate of GDP 1.20% 12.30% 7.00% 7.10% 6.70% 8.30% at factor cost GDP – primary sector -3.10% 10.30% 6.60% 7.00% 5.80% 7.40% GDP – secondary sector 4.30% 30.40% 5.70% 6.60% 7.60% 12.60% GDP – tertiary sector 5.70% 7.50% 8.00% 8.00% 7.70% 7.80% GDP – informal sector -0.50% 11/8% 6.20% 7.00% 6.30% 7.50% 3.1.2. Uses of the GDP This dynamic growth process will be driven by stepped-up investment and the expected increase in domestic savings. During the period covered by the Plan, the gross fixed capital formation is estimated to attain about CFAF 6,760 billion, rising from nearly CFAF 1,130 billion to approximately 2,067 billion in 2015, or an average annual investment of close to CFAF 1,720 billion, for an average growth rate of 21 percent a year. This increase in investment is attributed to investment programs for new uranium deposits and capital applied to oil operations, forecast for the first two years of the Plan. The government, the private sector, and households will participate in this effort. Domestic savings should increase annually by about 12.5 percent on average between 2012 and 2015, as a result of both an increase of its share in GDP from 10 percent in 2011 to 14.9 percent in 2015 and from the sharp rise of the GDP. The objective of strong and inclusive growth is one way of bringing about an overall improvement in the standard of living. Thus the volume of private consumption is expected to achieve an annual average growth rate of nearly 8.5 percent during the years of the Plan. Per capita consumption in constant prices will rise by about 5 percent between 2011 and 2015. Moreover, one of the objectives of the PDES is an improvement in the standard of living by reducing inequalities and the growth of the middle class. This class is in fact regarded as the most active part of the population in terms of available skilled labor and increased domestic demand, in particular household consumption. 97 In Niger, this segment accounts for only 30 percent of the entire population, defined as the population that is neither poor nor belongs to the wealthiest segment of society (usually defined as the richest 10 percent). The middle class is not considered as an adequate basis for economic policies built on domestic demand. This situation is also a reflection of the inequalities prevalent in the country’s economy, encountered also in patterns of consumption. According to a budget-consumption survey, the concentration of household consumption was 37 percent in 2008, as measured by the Gini coefficient. This concentration is clearer in urban areas, where the consumption ratio between the wealthiest 10 percent and the poorest 10 percent is 6.3 as compared to 3.7 in rural areas. However, the inequality between urban and rural areas is equally large: a poverty rate of 62 percent in rural areas in contrast to 38 percent in urban settings. Thus, efforts are planned to lessen inequalities and increase the weight of the middle class to around 50 percent by 2015. Although this objective falls short of the corresponding MDG (30 percent poverty reduction by 2015), it nonetheless reflects substantial progress, in comparison with figures recorded in previous years. To accomplish this, the Plan’s action program includes measures, reforms, and public investment programs in line with this objective. Thus, the food security and sustainable agricultural development pillar comprises 11 programs accounting for 15.6 percent of the total cost of the PDES. Measures to improve targeting of the poor for subsidies and transfers, as well as social development programs and activities, will also play an active role in achieving this objective. An improvement in the standard of living of the population will also be achieved through a rigorous price policy. The objective is to limit inflation to 2.6 percent per year on average for the duration of the Plan. An improvement in fundamental financial, budget and external equilibria and adoption of a prudent monetary policy by the BCEAO will help to attain this objective. These inflation control measures should also protect the people’s purchasing power and the competitiveness of the national economy in international markets. The role of foreign trade in the country’s economic and social development strategy is critical. Export promotion and development of the leading economic sectors will be determining factors in achieving the objective of putting the national economy on track for strong growth from 2012 to 2015. Exports of goods will grow by 28 percent a year on average over the period of the Plan, and by over 42 percent in 2012. This growth is attributed to oil exports and to the sharp rise in uranium exports following the recent mining of new deposits. 98 At the same time, imports of goods would increase by an annual average of 12.5 percent, in step with purchases of capital goods and intermediate goods, which should accompany the acceleration in investments. The GDP supply-use balance would receive strong support from nonfactor services estimated in net terms at nearly CFAF 3,030 billion during the period covered by the Plan, or an average annual amount of CFAF 760 billion (20 percent of GDP). This strengthens GDP resources and makes it possible to maintain high levels of consumption and investment over the period. Table 10. Changes in the trade balance and the balance of non-factor services from 2011 to 2015 (in billions of CFAF) Years: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Trade balance -448.30 -394.90 -334./40 -344/5- -311/1- Balance of non-factor services -380.70 -418.00 -666.90 -889.80 -1,052.80 Table 11. Balance between supply and use (as a percentage of GDP) Years: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total GDP 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Final consumption as a percentage 90.00% 86.80% 85.00% 85.60% 85.10% of GDP Final consumption in billions of CFAF 2,703.96 3,041.29 3,272.98 3,618.51 3,934.51 Gross investment in billions of CFAF 1,128.80 1,275.40 1,578.70 1,843.10 2,066.70 Gross investment as a percentage of 37.57% 36.40% 41.00% 43.60% 44.70% GDP Balance of goods and services -27.57% -23.30% -26.00% -29.20% -29.80% (nonfactor) 3.1.3 Money and credit During the period covered by the Plan, the financial sector should play an increasing role in improving the business climate. The growth of the money supply should respond to both the financing needs of the economy and the need to control inflation. Thus, the money supply would grow overall by 28.2 percent a year during the Plan, from CFAF 602.5 billion in 2011 to CFAF 1,212 billion in 2015. This trend will reflect a consolidation of net foreign assets, which will rise at an annual average of 2.7 percent between 2011 and 2015, from CFAF 255 billion to CFAF 304.4 billion. It will also reflect an annual average increase of 34 percent in credits to the economy, from CFAF 404 billion in 2011 to CFAF 960 billion in 2015. On the other hand, net claims on the treasury would decline. The two issues in June 2011 of CFAF 34.5 billion and CFAF 25 billion in December 2011 and use of public deposits in 2012 partially explain the trends in the net government position between 2011 and 2012. 99 Table 12. Money supply counterparts (in billions of CFAF) Years: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Net foreign assets 254.90 293.10 279.30 269.20 304.40 Domestic credit 419.80 354.10 301.10 486.50 604.10 Net government position 15.80 -23.50 -16.40 -7.30 -20.30 Credits to the economy 404.00 529.30 630.00 820.00 960.00 Money supply (money and quasi money) 602.50 730.80 892.70 1,010.00 1,212.80 The expected increase in credits to the economy responds to the need for financing local investments, which should grow at an average annual rate of 20 percent, and to the rate of creation of activities in the modern sector and the relative shrinking of the informal sector in the national economy. Control over the recommended monetary increase should be continuous and measured, in order to keep inflation within the limits of WAEMU’s convergence criteria. 3.1.4. Government finance Under the Plan, government finance will help build public investment and keep the budget deficit at a sustainable level, while ensuring attainment of development goals. To achieve this, the tax burden is expected to rise, from 13.3 percent (excluding exemptions) in 2010 to 18 percent in 2015, thanks to the implementation of a certain number of measures, such as simplification of the tax system, making it more transparent and equitable, and revision of the incentive system. The tax base will be expanded, and efforts will be made to improve collection of taxes and assessments. Reforms initiated in 2011 and scheduled to be completed by 2013 will provide for the following: i) tighter controls by increasing the number of audits of mineral and petroleum companies; ii) increased control of tax exemptions; iii) establish and increase the level of penalties for tax fraud; iv) development of ex-post controls; v) assignment of tax identification numbers to importers and economic operators; and vi) revision of the investment code to review and eliminate exemptions. The ratio of total receipts to GDP will rise from 13.2 percent in 2011 to nearly 19 percent during the period covered by the Plan. 100 Table 13. Change in recurrent revenue (in billions of CFAF and as a % of GDP) Years: 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total revenue (billions of CFAF) 627.90 599.10 650.70 756.70 873.80 Tax revenue (% of GDP) 16.20% 15.20% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% Tax revenue (billions of CFAF) 485.90 532.60 616.10 718.60 832.20 Nontax revenue and supplementary budget 28.50 66.20 35.90 38.90 39.90 + special accounts (billions of CFAF) Nontax revenue and supplementary budget 0.95% 1.90% 0.90% 0.90% 0.90% + special accounts (% of GDP) At the same time, emphasis will be placed on the quality of government expenditure, with the rationalization of recurrent expenditures, to be kept below 15.0% of GDP, and with control of interest on the external debt, by debt restructuring and management. Moreover, between 2012 and 2015, subsidies and transfers will increase by an annual average of 8.6 percent, from nearly CFAF 114 billion in 2012 to more than CFAF 198 billion in 2015, along with better targeting of the most vulnerable population groups and measures to assist them. Overall, the total treasury budget deficit would amount to around CFAF 884 billion by 2015, or 19.1 percent of GDP. 101 Table 14. Change in government expenditure (in billions of CFAF) Years 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total expenditure 691.90 779.70 1263.70 1,547.70 1,758.80 Current expenditure 461.30 423.30 493.60 556.40 623.60 Current budget expenditure 391.90 458.70 516.50 578.10 Salaries and wages 141.00 146.10 165.20 188.30 214.00 Materials and supplies 115.40 120.00 121.00 133.10 150.10 Subsidies and transfers 197.30 114.50 158.70 180.40 198.30 Interest due 7.60 11.20 13.80 14.70 15.70 Including external debt 6.40 6.90 7.30 8.10 9.00 Supplementary budgets/special accounts ND 30.40 34.90 39.90 45.50 Capital expenditure and net lending 206 357.40 770.10 991.30 1,134.20 (**) Investment expenditure 206 357.40 770.10 991.70 1,136.50 Net lending 0 0 -0.40 -0.40 -2.30 Other expenditures 24.60 0 0 0 0 Overall balance (commitment basis) -177.5039 -180.60 -613.00 -789.00 -884.00 Overall balance as percentage of GDP -5.90% -5.20% -15.90% -18.70% -19.10% Overall balance (cash basis) -65.90 -180.60 -613.00 -789.00 -764.65 Financing 65.90 50.00 457.30 633.70 707.20 External 39.60 55.00 467.10 641.50 707.20 Domestic 26.30 -5.0 -9.70 -7.80 0 Financing Gap 0 130.60 155.70 155.30 176.80 (*) Including grants for budget financing or for financing projects and loans, and redemption and cancellation of the debt (including debt currently under discussion). 39 Excluding grants. 102 3.1.5. Balance of payments The current balance of payments deficit is expected to be 30 percent of GDP in 2015, thus reflecting a considerable deterioration from its 2011 level of 22.7 percent. This outcome can essentially be attributed to the need to import capital goods, at a rate expected to increase by over 20 percent, leading to a 12.5 percent rise in imports. Moreover, imports of nonfactor services will experience a net rise of 44 percent a year between 2011 and 2015. The trade deficit, however, will decline from 15 percent of GDP in 2011 to 6.7 percent in 2015, due to the new oil and gas exports and the increase in uranium exports. As a result, exports of goods at nominal value will shoot up by 112 percent from 2011 to 2015. Table 15. Balance of payments (in billions of CFAF) Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Current account -682.70 -754.30 -981.10 -1,210.50 -1,386.10 Current account as a percentage of GDP -22.72% -21.50% -25.50% -28.60% -30.00% Trade balance -448.30 -394.90 -334.40 -344.50 -311.10 Trade balance as a percentage of GDP -14.92% -11.27% -8.68% -8.15% -6.73% Exports 589.60 836.00 936.40 1,069.50 1,247.70 Uranium 348.80 360.50 356.90 469.80 629.10 Petroleum 157.80 240.70 228.00 208.60 Other exports 240.80 317.70 338.70 371.70 409.90 Imports FOB 1,037.90 1,230.90 1,270.80 1,414.00 1,558.80 Energy products 163.40 17.00 15.60 15.70 15.60 Food products 143.40 236.00 238.50 238.90 240.20 Capital goods 351.60 454.80 475.00 607.30 693.50 Other imports 379.50 523.10 541.70 552.10 609.50 Nonfactor services -380.00 -418.00 -666.80 -887.80 -1,052.80 Income (factor services) -23.40` -95.90 -141.70 -146.60 -201.90 Current transfers 169.00 154.50 161.80 170.60 179.70 Direct investment (net) 498.80 509.10 305.50 296.00 323.40 Portfolio investment 8.20 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 Other investment 74.40 189.80 203.30 229.60 250.80 OVERALL BALANCE -101.30 -50.80 -469.80 -690.20 -806.60 103 The current balance of payments deficit will be partly covered by private foreign resources. Foreign direct investment (FDI) will be an important component of this coverage, rising to CFAF 1,425 billion during the Plan, driven by the public-private partnership law (PPP), in particular. This objective in terms of FDI will be achieved as a result of Niger’s real areas of potential (natural resources in particular), and inflation control and financial equilibrium policies to be pursued by the government, as well as by implementing incentives to promote the business climate and the private sector. The advance of FDI should be encouraged by this situation, and make it possible to create production and processing units in the agricultural-forest-livestock sector in a context conducive to strengthening public-private partnerships. This should thus contribute to the investment effort that the country should make to accelerate economic growth. 3.1.6. Alternative growth scenarios The government will give priority to achieving a high growth scenario. 2012 estimates still confirm the realization of this scenario and allow for a forecast of 9.7 percent growth on average over the four-year period. Economic trend analyses and monitoring-evaluation studies to be conducted during the period will show whether the national economy is still on a high growth path or whether the baseline or low-growth scenarios should be considered instead. More than the other two scenarios, the high-growth scenario will give government authorities an opportunity to implement their proactive policy under the PDES. If the recommended measures and reforms are implemented independently of the scenarios, the prospects for financing and implementing public investment projects will be improved. The capacity for making public investment will be greater if domestic and external financial balances are maintained, along with viable debt conditions. In this scenario, the investment rate (GFCF/GDP) will evolve according to the baseline scenario, rising from 37.6 percent in 2011 to 44.7 percent in 2015, for an annual average of 41.4 percent. Investments will soar to CFAF 2,204 billion by 2015, for an average annual growth of 23.8 percent, as compared to 20.7 percent under the baseline scenario. The average propensity to consume will decline to 85 percent in 2015, as compared to 90 percent in 2011. Final consumption will, however, register around a growth rate in the neighborhood of 12 percent, which implies an annual improvement in the standard of living of nearly 7 percent in terms of the increase in per capita consumption, as compared to 5 percent according to the baseline scenario. Among the main implications of this scenario, the public finance deficit would rise to 19.4 percent in 2015, as opposed to 19.1 percent in the baseline scenario, and the current account deficit would be 28.6 percent of GDP, rather than 27.8 percent according to the baseline scenario. In the area of financing, this scenario shows an overall financing gap during the four years that is CFAF 105 billion more than under the baseline scenario. This scenario, more than the others, relies on the government taking steps to increase the absorptive capacity of public investment, so that its weak capacity will not constrain its ability to achieve the objectives of this scenario. A plan for building human, material, and organizational capacities will be put in place and will support efforts to achieve the PDES. 104 The three scenarios are presented in detail in Annex 1. The low-growth scenario This scenario assumes a proactive government policy in an unfavorable environment that holds the possibility of frequent drought years during the period covered by the Plan, and an average annual growth rate for the primary sector of no more than 6.2 percent, instead of 8 percent under the baseline scenario, despite reform and investment efforts. External demand will continue to be depressed, and this will limit external financing to the levels already recorded. As a result, external demand will lead to a weak export performance during the years covered by the Plan. The average growth of the secondary sector will be slightly affected, remaining below 10.9 percent, instead of the 11.5 percent forecast of the baseline scenario. This scenario will also see reductions in consumption, savings, and investment, especially public investment, which will be squeezed by the combined effect of a drop in tax revenues and a drying up of financing sources. Thus, the implementation rate will be considerably below the rate achieved in the baseline scenario. There will also be repercussions on the level of domestic and external financial balances and inflation control. However, the various measures and reforms announced in the Plan will be retained under this scenario. The GFCF/GDP ratio will experience the same changes as in the baseline scenario, as will the proactive approach of government, even during economic downturns. 105 Table 16. Change in the principal macroeconomic indicators in the low-growth scenario Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012-15 GDP at market prices 3,004.00 3,468.80 3,739.60 4,014.10 4,319.50 (billions of current CFAF) Informal sector share of 68.90% 69.85% 69.53% 69.18% 68.55% GDP (% of GDP) Real growth rate of GDP at 2.10% 10.50% 4.77% 4.62% 4.88% 6.20% market prices Primary sector GDP -3.10% 9.30% 6.10% 6.00% 6.10% 7.10% Secondary sector GDP 4.30% 25.00% 4.50% 4.20% 4.50% 10.90% Tertiary sector GDP 5.70% 7.00% 4.40% 4.20% 4.70% 5.20% Informal sector GDP -0.50% 9.10% 6.00% 6.00% 6.00% 7.00% Final consumption in 2,704.00 3,010.70 3,178.50 3,436.60 3,678.60 billions of CFAF Final consumption as % of 90.00% 86.80% 85.00% 85.60% 85.10% GDP Gross investment 37.60% 36.40% 41.00% 43.60% 44.70% Total revenue 627.90 593.40 634.20 721.40 818.00 Tax revenue in billions of 485.90 527.20 598.30 682.50 778.10 CFAF Tax revenue as % of GDP 13.00% 15.20% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% Current expenditures 461.30 412L30 475.30 539.30 604.30 507.80 Capital expenditure and 206.00 350.80 747.90 946.70 1,068.00 3,113.40 net lending Total expenditures 667.30 763.10 1,223.20 1,486.00 1,672.30 Overall balance -177.50 -169.70 -589.00 -764.60 -864.30 (commitment basis) Overall balance as % of -5.90% -4.90% -15.70% -19.00% -20.00% GDP Current account as % of -22.70% -21.50% -25.50% -28.60% -30.00% GDP Current account -632.70 -754.30 -952.20 -1,148.30 -1,297.40 Trade balance as % of GDP -14.90% -8.95% -8.40% -9.70% -9.80% Exports 89.60 800.00 900.400 1,009.50 1,107.70 Imports, FOB -1,037.90 -1,110.30 -1,213.30 -1,400.00 -1,530.00 Direct investment (net) 498.80 502.90 295.40 281.00 302.60 106 The low-growth scenario thus reveals trade deficits, ranging from 15 percent in 2011 to 10 percent in 2015. This scenario places public investment expenditure at about CFAF 113 billion. Because of the difficulties in fulfilling the plan under this scenario (implementation rate estimated at 55 percent), this amount would correspond to a total budget of CFAF 5,660 billion for the years of the Plan. The budget would be CFAF 5,195 billion on the assumption that the implementation rate could increase to 60 percent. High-growth scenario The assumptions used for this optimistic or high-growth scenario are as follows: i) continued, adequate rainfall throughout the Plan. According to this projection, rains will be abundant and evenly distributed over space and time. There will not be any droughts or weather disasters to disrupt the crop cycles during this period; and ii) according to this scenario, the international economy is assumed to run smoothly, including the regional and European economies, which will favor both external demand and external financing of projects under the Plan. On the basis of these two assumptions, an average annual growth rate of more than 9.7 percent will prevail during the period covered. However, an overly rapid rise in investment, which would be brought on by both the 12 percent rise in GDP and the very high recommended levels of the GFCF/GDP ratio, could run up against absorption problems due to a shortage of productive and organizational capacities in the short run. In all three scenarios, but especially in this one, the government should take care to ensure that it has the human and material capacities needed to carry out all of the investments that will ensue in part from the promising economic situation. This scenario will be marked by strong growth and high levels of consumption, savings, and investment. More specifically, public investment will be boosted by rising fiscal revenue and the availability of external financing, which will make it possible to complete a large proportion of the Plan’s projects, at rates in excess of those seen in the past. It is estimated that the implementation rate could be as high as 65 percent. The capital expenditures of public finance will rise to CFAF 3,380 billion during the four years of the Plan; this represents a capital budget of CFAF 5,634 billion during this period. In this scenario, strong growth and high levels of investment and consumption will be facilitated by a spike in imports. Despite the high growth, in 2015 there will be a trade deficit of CFAF 569 billion, as compared to 311 billion in the baseline scenario. This widening of the trade gap stems from the sharp rise in the GDP; this will lead to considerable increases in investment and consumption, which in turn create increased demand for imports. On the other hand, overall improvement in economic conditions will have only a slight impact on exports. 107 Table 17. Change in the principal macroeconomic indicators in a high-growth scenario Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2012-15 GDP at market prices (billions of 3,004.00 3,528.70 3,944.50 4,394.40 4,929.70 current CFAF) Informal sector share of GDP (% 68.90% 63.70% 67.20% 66.10% 65.20% 66.80% of GDP) Real growth rate of GDP at 2.10% 12.40% 8.57% 8.60% 9.30% 9.70% market prices Primary sector GDP -3,10% 10.70% 7.60% 7.50% 8.00% 8.50% Secondary sector GDP 4.30% 32.00% 12.10% 11.50% 12.50% 17.00% Tertiary sector GDP 5.70% 8.00% 9.30% 9.50% 10.50% 9.30% Informal sector GDP -0.50% 12.00% 6.40% 6.70% 7.90% 8.30% Final consumption in billions of 2,704.00 3,062.90 3,352.80 3,761.60 4,195.20 CFAF Final consumption as % of GDP 90.00% 86.80% 85.00% 85.60% 85.10% GFCF in billions of CFAF 1,128.80 1,284.50 1,617.20 1,919.60 2,203.60 Gross investment 36.40% 41.00% 43.60% 44.70% Tax revenue in billions of CFAF 485.90 536.40 631.10 747.00 887.40 Tax revenue as % of GDP 16.20% 15.20% 16.00% 17.00% 18.00% 16.55% Total revenue 627.90 602.60 666.70 785.90 927.30 Current expenditures 461.30 422.20 498.30 591.30 683.30 Capital expenditure and net 206.00 360.80 788.50 1,026.40 1,201.60 lending Total expenditures 667.30 783.00 1,286.80 1,617.70 1,884.90 Overall balance (commitment -177.5040 -180.40 -620.10 -831.80 -957.60 basis) Overall balance as % of GDP -5.90% -5.10% -15.70% -18.90% -19.4% Current account -682.70 -760.20 -1005.50 -1259.20 -1476.50 Trade balance as % of GDP -14.92 -9.30% -11.40% -12.10% -11.20% Exports 589.60 906.00 1,006.40 1,169.50 1,347.70 Imports, FOB -1,037.90 -1,233.30 -1455.30 -1701.30 -1,905.30 Direct investment (net) 498.80 511.70 344.60 307.60 345.1 40 Excluding grants. 108 3.2. PILLAR 1. IMPROVING THE CREDIBILITY AND EFFECTIVENESS OF PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS Pillar No. 1 will make it possible to achieve the strategic results of ensuring that citizens have equitable and equal access to public services and that democratic and republican institutions have more credibility. To this end, a results-based culture needs to be instilled, as well as a culture of government accountability and responsibility vis-à-vis its citizens. This change will target six major areas: i) public financial management; ii) management of the economy; iii) the workings of constitutional institutions; iv) justice and human rights; v) local governance; and vi) improvement in the functioning of government. 3.2.1. Democratic and civilian institutions are credible a. General guidelines: The PDES will be based on strategic guidelines defined in the Renaissance Program on provisions contained in the Constitution of the 7th Republic of November 25, 2010. Essentially, they involve strengthening democracy and constitutional institutions to ensure establishment of the rule of law. In this regard, the short-term challenge is to complete efforts to put in place a constitutional structure and entities for national and political consultation and dialogue. Strengthening dialogue with civil society organization will be placed at the core of political governance, in an effort to facilitate greater participation in the process of democratic transparency and openness. The policy implemented under the PDES framework is designed to achieve seven results to be achieved by implementing three programs: Programs Results 1. Government stakeholders know and respect their Strengthening the capacity of constitutional role; institutional stakeholders 2. Non-governmental stakeholders have knowledge of the constitutional entities; 1. Dialogue among institutions is effective and Strengthening dialogue among constructive; stakeholders in constitutional life 2. Forums for dialogue between the government and civil society organizations are available. 3. The major principles of democracy are widely disseminated. Strengthening the transparency of 1. The electoral code is revised; electoral processes 2. A biometric voter register is established. 109 Priority programs and activities Program for building the capacity of institutional stakeholders This program targets i) training of the principal stakeholders of the three branches of government on their roles; ii) dissemination of constitutional principles among nongovernment stakeholders; and iii) building the capacity of the National Council for Political Dialogue (CNDP), the High Authority for Consolidation of Peace (HACP), the National Commission for Social Dialogue (CNDS), the Council of the Republic, the Economic, Social, and Cultural Council (CESOC), and the Office of Ombudsman [Mediature]. Program for strengthening dialogue among stakeholders in constitutional life It will provide for the creation of a consultation framework, and in particular a framework for dialogue with civil society on public policy management. Moreover, public information campaigns will be organized to widely disseminate i) the constitutional principles of separation of powers; ii) the day-to-day operations of institutions; and iii) the results of consultation forums between government stakeholders and civil society. Program for increasing the transparency of the electoral process This program has two main goals. The first has to do with revision of the electoral code to correct shortcomings in the present code. The second consists in setting up a biometric voters’ register, in coordination with the civil registry offices. It will consist of an interministerial effort to establish a single register for various purposes (civil register, police/judiciary record, voters’ register, etc.), to ensure that the 2015 elections are held with maximum transparency. 3.2.2. Development is managed 3.2.2.1. Government finance is managed transparently and efficiently, in accordance with regulations in force a. General guidelines: The policy for public financial management takes up the goals of the Program for Reform of Public Financial Management adopted in January 2012. Reinstatement of good financial governance is both the basic platform for renewed confidence of citizens in government and an essential prerequisite for mobilizing increased internal and external financing in line with national procedures. This reinstatement is based on two strategies: i) improving public financial management, to bring it closer to international quality standards; and ii) strengthening the effectiveness of external controls. 110 The policy put into practice under the PDES will be made effective by implementing three programs to achieve thirteen principal results: Programs Results 1. The legal framework is modernized in coordination with the WAEMU harmonized public finance framework 2. Improvement in mobilization of resources 3. Improvement of the government budget preparation cycle Reform of public 4. Improvement of budget execution procedures financial management 5. Strengthening of financial reporting and accounting 6. Strengthening of information systems 7. Improvement in control and transparency of public finance 8. Improvement of cash and debt management 9. The government procurement and contract management system are more transparent and streamlined. Enhancing the 1. Strengthening of the institutional and organizational base of the audit effectiveness of the office audit office 2. Improvement in audits and dissemination of the conclusions of the audit office. Enhancing the 1. Increased capacity of the National Assembly in terms of budget effectiveness of procedures and parliamentary control National Assembly 2. Improved controls and dissemination of the conclusions of the National controls Assembly. Institutional measures will also make it possible to improve the sustainability of the reforms put in place. b. Priority programs and activities: Public financial management reform program It is designed primarily to increase the number of users of government services who are satisfied with the efficiency of government spending. It targets five main areas: i) modernization of national legislation; ii) a considerable improvement in cash management; iii) an improvement in the credibility of the budget; iv) an improvement in reporting and control of public financial management; and v) an improvement in the government procurement system. With regard to the first component, the purpose is to improve the integrity and transparency of the mechanism and to update government contract laws and regulations. The second component on cash management will make it possible to have a better idea of government revenue and expenditures. It will also give priority to increasing mobilization of resources by improving: i) the organization of the legal framework of the customs and tax 111 services; ii) the predictability of tax and nontax revenues, with a considerable increase of up to 20% by 2015; iii) the level of tax and nontax receipts; iv) forecasting of external resources; and v) mechanisms for monitoring the debt and budget subsidies. Improvement of budget execution procedures will entail standardization of the process for release of budget appropriations and the functioning of the expenditure chain. Cash and debt management should be improved by improving management of cash flows, introduction of a single treasury account, and strengthening the public debt management system. Improvement of government credibility, the third component of the Program, will entail the following: i) revision of the budget preparation law; ii) improvement of the credibility and comprehensive coverage of the government budget, especially by including all aid programs and projects; and iii) improvement of budget preparation tools. The fourth component on improved reporting and control of public financial management, will focus on: i) improved reporting of budget execution; ii) strengthening stock or quantity-basis accounting; iii) producing operating accounts and the budget review act on time; iv) improving the working conditions of deconcentrated accounting units; and v) improving information systems (for government accounts and integrated management of the budget and information systems of government revenue-collecting agencies [régies financières]. Increased control and transparency of public finance will be achieved by: i) strengthening management of the balance and pensions; ii) effective, ongoing monitoring of the government portfolio; iii) strengthening the effectiveness of internal and external controls; and iv) improving the effectiveness of government spending. The last component, key to restoring citizens’ confidence in public financial management, is devoted to improving the government procurement system, to ensure the integrity and transparency of the contracting mechanism. These measures will be accompanied by renewed initiatives to communicate and raise awareness of the damaging effects of corruption on the country’s social and economic development. This would imply that the entities responsible for fighting corruption, especially in the government contracting system, would benefit from a strengthening of their operational capacity. Program to improve the effectiveness of the Audit Office This program is designed to provide a strong, sustainable foundation for this new institution. It will make sure that actual controls and obligations are in line with the organic law, and will make it possible for the government to improve internal management based on the recommendations of this institution. 112 The three components of this program will focus on: i) building the capacity of audit office personnel in the area of controls, audits, and the constitutional and institutional role of the office; ii) stepping up audits to instill a culture of accountability on the part of public entities; and iii) improving the dialogue and flow of information between the audit office and the general public. Based on the public reports issued by the Audit Office, the government should adopt its recommendations, and take action to further explore its conclusions in cases of malfunction identified in said public reports. Program for strengthening the controls of the National Assembly Its purpose is to ensure that the legislative branch performs its constitutional function of control—and financial control in particular—of the executive branch, The first component of the program will be designed to significantly strengthen the capacity of members of the National Assembly, and especially members of the finance committee, in the areas of control and audit, and the constitutional and institutional role of the National Assembly in public financial management control. The second component will involve intensifying the dialogue between the National Assembly and the Executive Branch, especially by organizing information sessions and using its parliamentary prerogatives to question the government or public entities. The third aspect will focus on improving the dialogue and flow of information between the National Assembly and the public, especially as regards its duty to exercise ex-ante controls (during budget preparation) and ex-post controls during examination of reports on government accounts). 3.2.2.2. Improving the quality of the design and evaluation of government policies and strategies a. General guidelines: In measures adopted in 2011, the government made clear its intention to rehabilitate the strategic planning system, notably by creating the Planning Ministry, and to strengthen forecasting, planning, and coordination of economic development and management programs. The policy for improving management of the economy implemented under the PDES targets seven primary results to be achieved by implementing three programs. 113 Programs Results Improvement of the design of 1. Improved coordination of global development strategies public policies on endogenous and policies development 2. Effective support for development of sectoral strategies and policies Strengthening national leadership 1. Strengthened dialogue with TFPs; capacity to conduct public policies 2. Development of a dialogue with NGOs/DAs on development 1. Improved monitoring and evaluation of global development Development of tools for policies monitoring and evaluation of public 2. Effective support for monitoring and evaluating sectoral policies policies 3. Improved monitoring of development assistance b. Priority programs and activities Program for improving the design of public development policies It targets two main areas: i) coordination of formulation of general public policies; and ii) support by the Planning Ministry to the different technical ministries and government institutions in designing their sectoral and thematic policies. As regards the first component, it appears critical to reinstate a medium- and long-term vision of development, in accordance with the aspirations of the people, that is put into effect within a general, consistent, and coordinated framework. Aside from the 2011-2012 Interim Framework Program for Government Action, this vision is expressed in two other strategic documents: the 2012-2015 Economic and Social Development Plan, and Niger’s Strategy for Sustainable Development and Inclusive Growth—2035. The second component, essential for conducting sectoral policies consistent with the comprehensive vision of development, is based primarily on setting up permanent support and advisory services for developing sectoral policies and their action plans, as well as controls to ensure that they are consistent with the overall development policy. Program for strengthening national leadership capacity to conduct public policies Its purpose is to enhance the appropriation of national policies by the authorities. It is also intended to strengthen dialogue and information-sharing on the national development vision between them and technical and financial partners and NGOs/DAs, in order to align support with the public policies. In this regard, a three-year action plan and policy on the effectiveness of aid will be developed, together with a government-partners protocol based on specific common 114 objectives. The contributions of TFPs will be included in the national budget and in the PDES implementation reports. Moreover, the system for monitoring NGOs and DAs will be reformed. As part of the proactive approach to investment management and in order to ensure an implementation rate close to 70 percent of budget items, the ministry responsible for planning will implement a flexible mechanism for: i) financing studies at all stages of financing these investments, with a view to accelerating and facilitating their implementation; and ii) eventually using specific structures to accelerate implementation of said investments. Program for development and strengthening of public policy monitoring tools Following principles shared by all participants, it is designed to implement specific, effective monitoring and evaluation procedures to capitalize on medium- and long-term experiences. Priorities will focus on i) adoption of a national monitoring and evaluation policy and the instruments needed to implement it; and ii) strengthening the national statistics system (National Statistics Institute and statistics offices in ministerial departments). Alignment of MTDFs [medium-term development frameworks] with the PDES will considerably improve the quality of economic management. 3.2.3. Citizens are guaranteed equitable and equal access to public services 3.2.3.1. Building citizens’ confidence in legal and judicial institutions a. General guidelines: The PDES will be based on the guidelines of the Renaissance Program and on the 2010-2013 sectoral policy of the Ministry of Justice and its action plan, approved in August 2010. The purpose of this policy is to restore citizens’ confidence in their legal and judicial institutions. It is based on five strategies: i) consolidation of democracy and promotion of development; ii) rationalization of the use of resources; iii) consolidation of achievements under previous reforms; iv) a partnership among the different stakeholders directly involved; and v) protection of citizens in an especially vulnerable situation. The policy implemented under the PDES has eleven key results to be achieved by implementing the following four programs: 115 Programs Results 1. Periodic controls are organized by the competent entities Development of the 2. The penal and/or disciplinary sanctions for corruption are reinforced and ethics of the judicial effective sector 3. The rules on conduct and ethics are better known by judicial stakeholders 4. The supply and demand factors contributing to corruption are better known and eliminated. 1. Frameworks ensuring the proper organization of the work of the judiciary Optimization of the are operational existing system 2. Appropriate responses are provided to needs for training and clarification expressed by judicial stakeholders. Modernization of 1. Increase in investment and reduction of crime frameworks for the 2. Improvement in the yield or results of judicial services activities and 3. Promotion of recourse to the legal system for settlement of disputes. operation of the justice system Promotion and 4. The rights of children to protection are fully exercised guarantee of human 5. The population fully exercises its rights. rights b. Priority programs and activities: Program for developing the ethics of the judicial sector The priority activities under this program consist in ensuring effective control of the activities of courts (judges’ chambers, prosecution, the bench, offices of clerks of court) by competent supervisory or judicial agencies, but also by the general inspection services of the judiciary, whose capacity will be strengthened. In addition, supervision and monitoring of the work of other representatives of the law (bailiffs and process-servers, bailiffs’ clerks, attorneys, notaries, and judicial police officers (OPJ)) will be improved, and information on laws and the roles of the institutions in this sector will be disseminated. Finally, the decisions of the high courts of justice will be published. In terms of preventive activities, sustainable action is needed on the factors influencing the supply of and demand for corruption in the judiciary sector. Four measures are recommended: information and awareness-raising; knowledge of the legal framework and its simplification; measures to counter political interference with execution of court judgments; and, knowledge of the ethics framework and improvement of professional staff. Adoption of the decree setting time limits for drafting judgments will also bring under the law provisions enabling defendants to have access to the judgments regarding them. 116 Program for optimizing the existing system It takes up a key challenge, namely not to systematically create new structures, but to adopt measures to make existing structures and infrastructure operational. Priority actions will involve rehabilitation of courts and prisons and penitentiaries on the basis of a clear list of priorities, as well as the institution of specialized court divisions and the regular organization of general assemblies in the court jurisdictions. Action will also focus on : i) developing the existing information system, especially statistics, in order to effectively monitor judicial activities; ii) revitalizing the framework for coordination and organization of judicial activities; and iii) ensuring implementation of an effective continuing education program for judicial stakeholders, covering issues of gender, justice for minors, and management of courts. Program for modernizing the frameworks for interventions and operations of the justice system The purpose of this program is to give the judicial system appropriate frameworks for its activities, to fill the voids identified in legal and institutional plans or to adapt existing frameworks to the present reality. Sectoral subpolicies, in the areas of criminal and prison policies, and a policy on judicial protection of minors will be developed. Moreover, reform of the legal and judicial structure will be initiated, to include the following measures: reform of the High Council of the Judiciary (CSM), revision of obsolete laws, and codification work; bringing national laws in line with international legal instruments, surveying and transcribing customs; and, introducing a legal framework to fight transnational organized crime, illegal trafficking, and terrorism. Other themes, such as security of investments, social reinsertion of offenders, and professional security, will also be addressed. High priority will also be given to building the capacity of stakeholders. These efforts will include: i) improving the institutional capacity of the central administration; ii) strengthening knowledge of the law on the part of both judicial stakeholders and litigants; iii) improving the work environment of judicial personnel; iv) developing mechanisms for increasing the effectiveness of staff and duties; v) rehabilitating work premises, both at central level and in jurisdictions; and vi) computerization of services. Introduction of a computerized criminal record, in relation to civil registration and voter registration records, will also make it possible to improve continuity in the exercise of justice. 117 Moreover, the policy of bringing justice closer to the persons using the system will be pursued, especially by expanding the network and introducing new jurisdictions as provided for by the law on judicial organization and administrative reform (27 new departments). Finally, the capacity of prisons and penitentiaries will be expanded by building new prisons and rehabilitating existing ones, in order to gradually increase wards for minors and women in all penal institutions. Creation of the National Legal and Judicial Assistance Agency will help increase equal access of citizens to justice and to judicial information, and improve the operation of the judicial apparatus. Program for the promotion and guarantee of human rights It is essentially designed to protect the most vulnerable segments of the population, including children, women, persons with disabilities, and the elderly. It will give priority to guaranteeing access to public services to all, and to protecting against abuse, discrimination, and violence. With a view to engaging in a dialogue with the Human Rights Council on the status of human rights in Niger, in February 2011 the government presented its report for the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva. Implementation of the ensuing action plan will require mobilization of the government and its partners. Moreover, to respond to its obligations to protect human rights, the government is transmitting its initial and periodic reports to the relevant organs. For instance, it has forwarded its initial and periodic reports to the Committee on Children’s Rights and the Committee on Women’s Rights, and its initial report was sent to the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Priority activities will focus on the following: i) support for strengthening institutions such as the National Human Rights Commission; ii) adoption and dissemination of legal instruments and texts on protection and promotion of children’s rights; iii) adoption and dissemination of social welfare laws; iv) preparation and implementation of a national human rights policy and its action plan; v) putting the national agency and commission against trafficking in persons into operation; vi) legislative harmonization to align national laws with international legal instruments; and vii) building a center for street-children in Niamey. 118 3.2.3.2. Improving management of local governments a. General guidelines: Local governance (understood as management of local governments) is one of the pillars for improving grass-roots democracy and one of the conditions for improving land management and development. Action will be based on the guidelines of the National Decentralization Policy, and more specifically on provisions involving the transfer of authority from the central government to local governments. The objective will be to promote development and economic activities at a decentralized level and to bring government activities closer to the citizens. The policy implemented under the PDES will focus on five basic results, to be achieved by implementing two programs: Programs Results Implementation of the 1. Increase in financial resources; framework document on 2. Strengthening of the institutional and organizational framework of the national local governments; decentralization policy 3. Full implementation of the Code of Local Governments. Management of local 1. Human resources are adapted to needs in terms of quantity and governments quality; 2. Systematic rendering of accounts. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for implementation of the framework document on the National Decentralization Policy It has four components: i) support for transfer of functions and authority by transferring resources; ii) mobilization of additional funds to support the national land management policy; iii) strengthening of the institutional and organizational framework of local governments; and iv) effective and full implementation of the provisions of the Code of Local Governments. With regard to the first component, a balance between the transfer of authority and resources will be sought so that local governments will receive the means needed to perform their functions. Priority will be given to: i) ensuring an effective transfer of budget appropriations consistent with the responsibilities transferred by the central government to local governments; and ii) ensuring that local governments have central government support for local tax collection and mechanisms for mobilization and management of their own resources. The National Agency for Financing Local Government (ANFICT) is one of the principal instruments of the decentralization policy; efforts to ensure it is operational will guarantee 119 support for the economic development of local governments, and the reduction of spatial inequalities in economic or social terms, by relying on a mechanism to equalize the different investment budgets of communes. At the same time, building the institutional and organizational capacity of local governments will be achieved primarily by: i) systematically updating the communal development plans; ii) preparing regional development plans for all regions; and iii) strengthening their partnership with deconcentrated government offices. Program for management of local governments It is designed to improve management of and services provided by local governments to their constituents and to develop mechanisms for control of delegated projects. Priority will be given to the areas of communications, and training and support and advisory services for locally elected officials and employees of local governments. Activities will focus primarily on strategic planning, programming, budgeting, and operational management of regional and local development, and the accountability of local governments. 3.2.3.3. Building the capacity of government service providers to respond to the expectations of users a. General guidelines The PDES guidelines are based on the framework defined by the National Policy on Modernization of the State (PNME). The sectoral policy is intended to significantly improve the performance of the government in order to meet the aspirations of users. It will be based on two strategies: i) developing government capacity in terms of its human resources and management tools; and ii) improving the institutional capacity of public services. The major challenge in this subsector is to instill a true change in the behavior of the government towards the governed, in delivering public services and conducting public development policies. 120 The policy implemented under the PDES is designed to achieve seven results by implementing two programs: Programs Results Professionalization and 1. Effective management of careers and depoliticization of the civil rationalization of the service; government’s human 2. Well-defined rules for management of human resources; resources and management 3. Improvement in the rules of procedure for management of tools financial resources. 1. A quality government management staff is put in place; Building the institutional 2. Rules regarding information tools for users are established; capacity of government 3. Public services are given the means and resources needed to services perform their functions; 4. Production of management tools and instruments, including procedural manuals, strategy for resistance to change, use of results-based management (GAR), etc. b. Priority programs and activities Program for the professionalization and rationalization of human resources and management tools It has three main components: i) management of careers, jobs, and the depoliticization of the public administration; ii) the definition of human resource management rules; and iii) the definition of financial resource management rules. As regards career management and the depoliticization of government, priority activities include: i) preparing a code of ethics and conduct for government employees; ii) preparing typical career plans for government employees and disseminating them; and iii) regulating the functions and responsibilities of institutional stakeholders in the general organization of the government, its higher echelons, and the definition of staffing, posts, and job descriptions. The second component on defining human resource management rules for government will entail three priority activities: i) finalizing the review of the general statute and its implementing decree and revising the specific bylaws; ii) preparing procedural manuals based on the needs of citizens for public services; and iii) establishing permanent tools for management of civil service careers. Establishing career management tools is critical to efforts to reduce the instability of civil servants to contribute to the depoliticization of the public administration. These tools will be supplemented by employee performance evaluation tools, with the effective implementation of performance and results-based contracts, and implementation of action plans by structures and by posts. 121 In addition, the problem of civil service remuneration systems will be studied in depth, in order to instill a results-based process and culture in the government administration and institutions. Application of financial management rules of procedure is also part of the process to improve public financial management (see above). Program for building the institutional capacity of government services It has three components: i) supervisory staff; ii) information for the general public; and iii) improving the working environment and tools of public institutions. The first component is meant to fill the gap in skills that occurred several years ago as a result of the interruption in government hiring, by targeted recruitment to mitigate these quantitative shortages of human resources. It will specifically target design and support staff. The second component encompasses activities to develop government accountability to citizens. To this end, the government will be given the resources needed to make public information available to citizens, and to report regularly on its activities, and make itself available to respond to legitimate questions from its users. In this way, the production of the government should rise to a satisfactory level both for citizens and for conducting public development policies. The third component has to do with improving the working environment of government employees. Physical constraints affect the work capacity of government workers. In fact, the performance of government employees is handicapped by a working environment (buildings, access to new information and telecommunications technologies, etc.) that is inadequate to meet current needs for space and public services to provide to users. 3.2.3.4. A more effective diplomatic corps a. General guidelines: The PDES will rely on the guidelines of the Renaissance Program and the action plan of the DPG [General Policy Statement] in the area of foreign relations, with a view to ensuring that the diplomatic corps serves the country’s economic and social development, and the security of the country and its neighbors. To achieve these objectives, special emphasis will be placed on the effective deployment of our diplomatic corps, whose role will focus more on giving our country international visibility and disseminating information on the quality of its democratic government, economic potential, and advantages for foreign investors and our compatriots of the diaspora. Diplomatic activities will 122 also aim at protecting Nigeriens and their property abroad, while organizing them so that they can become more involved in the country’s economic and social development process. The policy regarding the role of the diplomatic corps in implementing the PDES is designed to achieve eleven (11) results, by implementing three programs. Programs Results 1. Rehabilitation of the buildings of diplomatic missions and consular posts 2. Acquisition of buildings for diplomatic missions and consular Strengthening and expanding posts the functions of the diplomatic 3. Construction of buildings for diplomatic missions and consular corps posts 4. Creation of diplomatic missions and consular posts, as well as permanent missions of the Republic of Niger with international organizations 5. Management of diplomatic missions and consular posts, as well as permanent missions of the Republic of Niger with international organizations. 1. Preparation of a national cooperation policy Increasing cooperation for 2. Training of cooperation officials as negotiators development 3. Effective participation of Niger in international conferences 4. An operational data base on Niger’s international commitments. Participation of the diaspora in 1. Establishment of a system for following up on recommendations the country’s development of the diaspora activities 2. Implementation of a TOKTEN program. b. Priority programs and activities Program for strengthening and expanding the functions of the diplomatic corps The priority activities of this program focus on substantially improving the working conditions of existing diplomatic missions and consular posts and opening new diplomatic missions and consular posts. To improve the working conditions of Niger’s diplomatic missions and consular posts abroad, in the medium and long run, Niger will acquire its own buildings to house them. Priority activities include: i) rehabilitation of buildings owned by Niger; ii) acquisition of buildings in countries where it is not possible to build them; and iii) construction of buildings in countries where Niger is able to do so. 123 To open new diplomatic missions and consular posts abroad, priority is given to: i) creating and ii) managing diplomatic missions and consular posts, as well as permanent missions of the Republic of Niger with international organizations. Program to increase cooperation for development The priority activities of this program are: i) prior preparation of a national policy on the subject; ii) specialized, continuing education for officials in charge of cooperation to enhance their skills and knowledge in the area of negotiations; and iii) creation of a data base of Niger’s international commitments. Program for participation of the diaspora in the country’s development activities The priorities of this program include: i) protecting Nigeriens and their property abroad; ii) informing and sensitizing Nigeriens abroad as to the need for their active participation in the national development process; iii) making suggestions and recommendations on all issues likely to lead to greater participation of Nigeriens abroad in the national development process; iv) implementation of a TOKTEN program; and v) putting in place a system for following up on the recommendations of members of the diaspora. 124 3.3. PILLAR 2: CREATION OF CONDITIONS FOR BALANCED AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT The approach recommended to accelerate growth is essentially based on strengthening the foundations of the economy and its potential to achieve a faster rate of growth while consolidating the basis for sustainable development. The first step is to guarantee lasting conditions for inclusive, sustainable, and equitable growth. To do this, and in consideration of the constraints faced by Niger, certain conditions must first be put in place to conduct a proactive, sustainable public policy. It is essential that Niger guarantee the following: i) peace and security, in response to potential exogenous threats; ii) control of population growth, without which efforts to accelerate growth will not bear fruit; iii) preservation and sustainable management of natural resources, in view of the fragility of the country’s biodiversity and the exposure of national production to climate risks; and iv) balanced regional development, leading to the sustainable distribution of the benefits of growth. 3.3.1. Citizens’ aspirations to security are satisfied a. General guidelines: The convergence of external and domestic security and development policies is a response to prevent multidimensional humanitarian, human rights, security, and development crises likely to jeopardize national economic and social development prospects. Strengthening the institutions that defend the territory and the security of citizens is therefore a top priority for Niger, and ambitious objectives are needed. A battle must be waged on two fronts. First, the country must counter the important risk of external destabilization linked to the infiltration of organized crime and trafficking networks, or to local repercussions of conflicts in neighboring countries. Then, internal risks of a resurgence of inter-community conflicts must be prevented and the government must make sure that no part of the territory escapes its authority. Here, the effectiveness of government action will be determined primarily by coordination of activities promoting reconciliation and dialogue, and security and development. To attain this dual objective in the sector of defense, security, and guarantee of national unity, four programs will be implemented to obtain the following eleven results: 125 Programs Results 1. Mapping and physical marking of borders Definition and surveillance of 2. Closer surveillance of borders national borders 3. Increased dialogue with neighboring countries. 1. Strengthening the means of intervention of forces to defend the Security of property and territory persons 2. Strengthening the means of forces to maintain order 3. Participation of defense and security forces in national development. Preservation of national unity 1. Creating better-informed citizens 2. Increased dialogue with the population. 1. Adoption of national defense and security policies Improvement of the 2. Defense and security forces have the human and material institutional framework resources needed for their constitutional mission 3. Greater consistency between strategic positions and national interventions. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for mapping and surveillance of national borders This program will make it possible to ensure the security of the national territory and to complete the full mapping of its borders, in cooperation with the bordering countries, and to physically mark off 4,720 km of borders. The next step is to preserve the borders by continuous, thorough surveillance by the defense and security forces, based on implementation of cooperative agreements for training, support and advisory services, and making information available to allied countries. Finally, continuing the dialogue between Nigerien authorities and neighboring countries on a political level, as well as among defense and security forces, will make it possible to prevent any conflicts or incursions of hostile forces into national territory. Program for the security of property and persons First conditions will be created to permit defense and security forces to intervene throughout the territory in the event of a proven threat to the security of the territory. In addition, the intervention capacity of security forces will be strengthened by giving them the human and material resources needed to carry out their mission of guaranteeing order and cooperation with the judicial system. Program for preservation of national unity Activities contributing to national unity and peace focus on putting in place permanent mechanisms for informing and sensitizing the people living in zones at risk. Moreover, setting up decentralized coordination mechanisms between the people and their representatives on the one hand and defense and security forces on the other will help prevent the risks of 126 intercommunity conflicts, preserve law and order, and combat trafficking in illicit products. Action will also be taken to promote a culture of peace and dialogue within the different national communities, to strengthen national unity based on the values of the republic. Finally, efforts will be made to increase the participation of defense and security forces in the national development process, through assistance in learning construction skills, dialogue, or contributing labor for large-scale development projects. The strategy for security and development of Sahel-Saharan zones, designed to reconcile the problem of peace with the issues of development of communes in the northern, northeastern, and eastern parts of the country, will serve as a framework for the operation of this program. Program for improving the institutional framework This program is designed to formulate a national defense policy and a national security policy, and to ensure the smooth running of institutions for intergovernmental dialogue. It will also make available to defense and security forces the human and material means needed for them to carry out their constitutional mission in an increasingly predictable way. Also, this program will strengthen the consistency between strategic positions and national defense and security activities. 3.3.2. Control of the determinants of population growth 3.3.2.1. Reduction of fertility a. General guidelines: The current average annual rate of population growth (3.3 percent) will seriously hamper efforts to achieve development in the coming years. A policy to control population growth, following the guidelines of the government’s population policy declaration adopted in 2007, is thus essential. Based on control of the average fertility per woman, on information and education, and on a change in the perception of the relationship between population and development, this 127 policy is structured around two programs, which are designed to achieve the main results indicated below: Programs Results 1. Effective use of local health and reproduction services; 2. Increased prevalence of modern contraceptives; Family planning 3. A decrease in early marriage; 4. An average period of maternal breast-feeding of 21 months. 1. Population variables are taken into account in development policies Relationship between and programs; population and 2. Availability of quality data on population; development 3. Political and religious leaders are made aware of population issues. b. Priority programs and activities: Family planning program It is based on two groups of activities. The first involves promotion of safe, effective, and affordable reproductive health services. The second group focuses on information, education, and communication to change behavior patterns (IEC/CCC) in reproductive health and family planning, in the form of appeals to and communication with opinion leaders and grass-roots communities. These activities are aimed at: i) promoting family planning activities in accordance with the people’s needs; ii) campaigning against early marriages and, more generally, all forms of discrimination against women (early marriages can be reduced through legal measures and awareness-raising campaigns in communities, to promote the schooling of girls and the importance of completion of their education); and iii) promoting the practice of breast-feeding to improve the health of infants and women, by helping them to have better control over the spacing of their pregnancies, hence the size of their families. A decrease in the fertility index will be the main indicator of a decline in fertility. Program on the interrelationship of population and development This program has to do with the availability of reliable data on population variables. It will include: i) availability of quality population data through the fourth general population census and building the capacity of the civil registry system; ii) educating and making people aware of population and development problems; and iii) coordination, monitoring, and evaluation. A more systematic use of contraception and a reduction in early marriages will be determining factors in bringing about a gradual slowdown in population growth. It should also be noted that emphasis on reducing income inequality through social welfare programs has an indirect effect on control of population growth. 128 3.3.2.2. A universal, continuous, compulsory, and free civil registration system that is statistically reliable and useful a. General guidelines: The legality of the state implies the primacy of the rule of law, and imposes on government the need to promote and protect the rights and freedoms of its citizens, and to respect and protect persons, in accordance with national laws and international agreements and treaties freely signed by it. For citizens to exercise their rights, there must first be an adequate and operational civil registration system, capable of surveying and recording all the events that occur throughout the national territory and of drawing up legal documents which in some cases reflect the legal existence of a human being. It also provides a continuous, relatively precise view of the structure of the population and makes it possible to program activities of public interest that respond to the people’s needs. Thus, a fully functional civil registration system provides population data that are critical for good planning in the areas of health, education, drinking water supply, housing, employment, etc. It helps decision-makers to better distribute adequate resources to the sectors with the greatest need, thereby reducing inequalities and other social and economic disparities. Implementation of Law No. 2007-30 of December 3, 2007 on the civil registration system in Niger, and its implementing decree No. 2208-189/PRN/MI/SP/D of June 17, 2008, on the National Civil Registration Policy and its action plan reflect the political will and commitment of the government to promote the rights of citizens by thorough, reliable, efficient, and continuous registration of their civil status and vital statistics. The policy implemented under the PDES provides for a program to be implemented for the purpose of achieving four results. Program Results 1. Building the capacity of the Civil Registration Department and its divisions; 2. Declaration centers (villages, tribes, public and private medical Building the capacity of the units) and the principal centers are operational for registration, civil registration system and delivery, and filing of civil registration documents; 3. Rural and urban communities use civil registration services; 4. Statistical civil registration data are available, reliable, and regularly used. 129 b. Priority programs and activities: The capacity building program of the civil registration system is designed to create conditions in which the system can appropriately fulfill its mission of good governance through the supply and demand of public civil registration services, by bringing the civil registration offices as close as possible to the people. Priority activities under this program are: i) strengthening the national and deconcentrated civil registration offices by building administrative infrastructures and equipping them, acquiring logistical resources, and offering instruction and refresher training to government workers; ii) setting up a national civil registry observatory (ONEC); iii) making the 266 main centers and 17,263 declaration centers (villages and tribes, public and private medical units) operational, by awareness-raising activities, the regular supply of centers with registration support materials, and ongoing monitoring and control of the centers by regional and departmental offices; iv) computerization of the civil registration system; v) organization of itinerant public hearings to regularize events not yet declared; and vi) strengthening of the statistical production apparatus. 3.3.3. Sustainable management and preservation of environmental resources 3.3.3.1. Better management of natural resources a. General guidelines: The natural resources management policy is designed to ensure sustainable management of land and biodiversity by curbing the widespread degradation of land and preserving forests, pasture, and planted land, and by promoting infiltration and the effective and efficient use of water to help develop forest production, safeguard the biodiversity of animal and plant species, and improve management of the urban environment. This policy will be implemented through two programs, to achieve the following principal results: Programs Results 1. Protection of forests, water tables, and watersheds and river basins Sustainable management of 2. Recovery of degraded land natural resources 3. Protection of land against wind and water erosion 4. Stabilization of banks of waterways 5. Protection of pastures against brush fires 6. Protection of the biodiversity of forest species 7. Promotion of agroforestry. Conservation of the 1. Preparation of land management plans biodiversity of natural 2. Development and management of parks and reserves environments 130 b. Priority programs and activities: Program for sustainable management of natural resources It is part of the National Forest Plan (PFN), currently being finalized, and the Strategic Framework for Sustainable Land Management (CSGDT). The PFN is designed to strengthen the position of forestry in rural development by effectively involving all stakeholders in management of forests and production systems, using an approach aimed at preserving the equilibrium of ecosystems and respecting the ecological, social, and economic functions of forests. The objective is to attain a forest coverage rate of at least 15 percent, to meet the needs of the people for firewood while conserving biodiversity by sustainable protection of at-risk zones and the habitat of fauna. The CSGDT will develop a dynamic partnership among the different stakeholders and mobilize adequate, sustainable investments to expand sustainable land management projects and activities. The following activities are planned: i) safeguarding and securing the natural forest heritage; ii) management and development of productive resources; iii) soil conservation and anti-erosion measures; and iv) promotion and development of forests in urban and adjacent areas. Safeguarding and ensuring the security of our natural forest heritage will be achieved as follows: i) preparation of a strategic plan for sustainable management of classified forests; ii) defining the boundaries and legal framework of classified forests; iii) continuous inventory of forest land and resources; iv) information on and establishing the boundaries of classified forests; v) classification of new forests; vi) preparation and implementation of classified forest management plans; and vii) increase in forest cover and biodiversity in classified forests, with a view to making them eligible for the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM). Management and development of productive resources: steady growth in the exploitation of forest resources is expected to improve the subsector’s contribution to the national economy, by preparing plans for the sustainable management and development of natural forests, training stakeholders, supporting promotion of the private sector in forestry and forest projects, and organizing businesses and creating jobs. The legal and regulatory framework governing development of different forest products, the competitiveness of forest products, and their conformity with the requirements of international markets will be modified. The following specific activities will be carried out: i) development and management of natural forests; ii) reforestation and planting of utilitarian species to increase national forest cover and resilience to climate change; ii) development of agroforestry and community forest management to promote production of ligneous and nonligneous species; iv) promotion of unconventional animal production; v) development of ecotourism; vi) development of bee-keeping; and vii) promotion of energy savings. 131 Soil conservation and efforts to control erosion will give rise to the following activities: i) management of watersheds by restoring degraded land; ii) measures to counter silting of basins and water points; iii) seeding land in herbaceous species to restore plant cover; iv) fighting invasive land and aquatic plants; and v) fighting brush fires. The promotion and development of urban and peri-urban forests will rely on promoting the forest potential of urban and peri-urban areas, promoting the establishment of carbon wells, and remunerating environmental services by involving urban dwellers and strengthening public- private partnerships. More specifically, the focus will be on: i) improving management of green spaces; ii) implementing mechanisms for management and monitoring and evaluation of urban and peri-urban forest sources; iii) development of private forestry; iv) management and development of urban and peri-urban forestry; and v) strengthening socioeconomic infrastructure. Program for conservation of biodiversity in natural settings Emphasis will be placed on conservation through forest parks and protected reserves, including the creation of arboretums. National frames of reference for forest and plant biodiversity will be developed. More specifically, the focus will be on: i) creation and management of national parks and reserves; ii) implementation and monitoring of national park and reserve co-management agreements with local governments; iii) participatory, sustainable management of specific ecosystems, especially humid zones and sensitive species; iv) implementation of forest seed banks; and v) hunting and game management. 3.3.3.2. Improving the capacity for resilience to climate change a. General guidelines: Environmental policy will seek to counter the effects of climate change by adaptive activities, improving resilience, and fighting the factors that cause climate change, in accordance with the 132 guidelines developed in the National Climate Change Policy (PNCC). This policy will be implemented in a program intended to achieve the following results: Program Results 1. Mechanisms for collecting data on the climate are upgraded and their capacity is strengthened; 2. Support for research, research-development, and transfers of technology; 3. Dissemination of information to users of climate data and the general public; 4. The population and key stakeholders in society are made aware of the issue and Strengthening the effects of climate change, and participate in activities to mitigate it and adapt adaptability and to it. resilience 5. The concept of adapting to climate change is introduced in laws of economic sectors; 6. Measures to reduce people’s vulnerability to climate change are developed and implemented; 7. Public and private mechanisms for support and assistance to different categories of participants are maintained; 8. Legislative and regulatory measures are adopted to further codify use and development of resources and emissions of polluting sectors, including agriculture and extractive industries; 9. Renewable energy, clean technologies, and energy efficiency are promoted; 10. National and sectoral strategies and regional and communal planning take climate change into account; 11. Green uses are promoted. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for strengthening adaptability and resilience It will develop the knowledge of local communities on plant and animal production and the results of research and development. Mechanisms will be adopted to disseminate all the adaptation strategies, introduce the concept of adaptation to climate change in laws and educational curricula, and finally to initiate pilot projects for assistance and support in this area. In addition, efforts to improve knowledge, promote research and development, and transfer technologies on climate change will be based on the following principal measures: i) implementation of mechanisms to collect climate data by strengthening intervention capacity; ii) improving accessibility to information for researchers and specialized institutions; and 133 iii) dissemination of information to users of climate data and the general public, through publications, specialized reviews, information sheets, the Internet, etc. Finally, Niger will contribute to the joint effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by targeting the three sectors that contribute the most greenhouse gases (changing use of land and forests; agricultural and livestock production; and energy). The measures envisaged by Niger and the international community have been discussed and consigned in recommendations at high-level summits on sustainable development and the environment, such as the one held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in May 2012. In the specific case of Niger, strengthening adaptability and resilience will be achieved by the following: i) improved codification of the development of ligneous resources; ii) gradual introduction of appropriate technologies in agriculture and livestock production; iii) promotion of renewable energy, clean technologies, and efficient use of energy; and iv) incentives to create green jobs. Moreover, a greater sense of responsibility will be incorporated in the national economic and social development process, by adopting measures to curb global warming. 3.3.4. Intra- and inter-regional disparities are mitigated 3.3.4.1. Strengthening management capacity of regional and local development a. General guidelines: Promotion of sustainable, balanced regional development is based on the government’s commitment to prepare and implement a national land management policy geared to mitigating inter-regional and intra-regional disparities in the capacity to meet the essential needs of the population, to promoting the orderly distribution of the population while balancing the relationship between cities and rural areas, and to supporting the emergence of focal points of regional development. This strategy is primarily designed to ensure equity in the human development indices of the regions. 134 The balanced regional development strategy is designed to produce nine results, to be attained by implementing three programs. Programs Results 1. Stock is taken of the local and regional situations; Development of land 2. The geographical configuration of the land and resources is known; management tools 3. The introduction of services, equipment, infrastructure, and socioeconomic activities is organized; 4. Development of towns is harmonized. 1. Uniform coverage of the basic needs of the people (health, education, National integration drinking water, roads, electricity); 2. Equipping of the main towns of the region is harmonized. 1. Diversification of productive activities offered to the population; Promotion of regional 2. Agricultural, forest, and livestock production activities and markets are development poles organized; 3. The regions share in the benefits of artisanal, tourist, and mining activities. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for development of land management tools It is designed to give the country an institutional framework and tools for spatial planning. In addition to formulating a national land management policy and revision of the framework law, a national land management scheme (SNAT) will be drawn up, as well as six regional land management schemes (SRAT), and four land management and urban development master schemes (SDAU). A system of geographical information on communes will also be put in place. National integration program It targets a reduction in inter- and intra-regional disparities and in the disparities between urban and rural areas. Institutional measures will be critical here, including the following: greater responsibility of regions for coordinating and harmonizing development activities; strengthening of their management capacity; improvement of local governance; better use of deconcentrated technical services in carrying out the duties of local governments and the Regional Council; mastery of the principles and procedures pertaining to the activities of technical and financial partners; and, coordination and monitoring and evaluation of the activities of NGOs and development associations. In order to develop and manage areas of potential, the capacity of regions to preserve and develop natural resources, equitably manage financial resources, select investments, monitor inequalities, and reduce vulnerability must be strengthened. 135 Program for promotion of regional development poles It is designed to promote the specialization of regions based on their comparative advantages. It will also create regional markets and exchanges specializing in agricultural, forest, and livestock products. These activities will be supported by improving the infrastructure for specialized markets, including road construction, water supply, sanitation and energy services, and intermediate towns (the administrative centers of the departments). The emergence of “poles� or focal points of regional development will be determined by economic opportunities identified in regional assessments already carried out (see the table below). Table 18. Economic opportunities in the regions Regions Areas of potential Potential comparative advantages Agadez Onions, garlic, potatoes, dates, grapes, citrus Mining, irrigation, cattle/beef exports, fruits, salt, cattle, uranium, coal, oil, handicrafts, and tourism handicrafts, and tourism Diffa Gum Arabic, peppers, fish, rice, corn, sorghum, Irrigation, fishing, cattle, handicrafts, and petroleum, cattle, natron, dates, handicrafts tourism and tourism Dosso Fish, rice, corn, groundnuts, sugar cane, gum Irrigation, cotton, groundnuts, corn, Arabic, cotton, small ruminants and poultry, sesame, fishing, poultry farming, handicrafts and tourism, sugar cane handicrafts and tourism Maradi Groundnuts, cotton, tiger nuts [souchet], Irrigation, groundnuts, tiger nuts, cotton, sesame, gum Arabic, byproducts of doum, sesame, exports of small ruminants, tobacco, small ruminants, iron, gold handicrafts and tourism Tahoua Onions, cotton, fish, cattle, gum Arabic, Irrigation (onions), cotton, beef exports, phosphate, gypsum, limestone, coal, mining, handicrafts and tourism handicrafts and tourism Tillabery Gum Arabic, rice, fish, sugar cane, tiger nuts, Irrigation (sugar cane, rice) and cattle, iron, gold, onions, phosphate, coal, hydroelectric power, tiger nuts, fishing, handicrafts and tourism, hydro-electric power agriculture, mining, handicrafts and tourism Zinder Groundnuts, sugar cane, gum Arabic, cattle, Irrigation (sugar cane), groundnuts, bee- gold, handicrafts and tourism, iron keeping, exports of large ruminants, mining, handicrafts and tourism City of Gum Arabic, rice, fish, small ruminants, poultry, Irrigation, fish, poultry farming, Niamey handicrafts and tourism handicrafts and tourism 136 3.4 PILLAR 3: FOOD SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT: NIGERIENS ENSURE SUSTAINABLE FOOD SECURITY The general guidelines on food security and sustainable agricultural development are provided by the 3N Initiative, “Nigeriens Nourishing Nigeriens.� They focus on creating conditions conducive to dealing with all risks to food and nutrition security, especially in a situation of strong population growth, and to ensuring that the agricultural sector is the vehicle for social transformation and economic growth. These guidelines, derived from the Niger Renaissance Program defined by the President of the Republic, are designed to protect the Nigerien people from hunger and malnutrition on a permanent basis and to guarantee that they will participate fully in national production and improvement of their income. The objective of the 3N Initiative is to “strengthen the national capacity for food production, a steady supply chain, and resilience in the face of food crises and natural disasters.� To achieve this objective, activities will focus on five major areas: i) increasing and diversifying agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish production; ii) supplying rural and urban markets on a regular basis with agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish products; iii) improving the resilience of vulnerable groups to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters; iv) improving the nutritional status of Nigeriens; and v) promoting reforms in the food security and agricultural development sector. 3.4.1. Increased agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish production a. General guidelines: This sector is viewed as a catalyst for technological transition, which should create the conditions that will lead to a significant and sustainable increase in the productivity of agricultural, forest, livestock, and fishery production systems. To this end, substantial investments must be made, with a view to: i) improving the productive capacity of land and water; ii) expanding the use of innovative techniques and technologies adapted to Niger’s ecological and socioeconomic situation; and, iii) creating legal, institutional, and tax conditions conducive to agricultural development and the transformation and modernization of production systems. Efforts to increase the productive capacity of land and water will focus on large-scale investments to: i) rehabilitate and create large and small irrigated zones; ii) develop and manage pasturelands; iii) recover and develop crop land; iv) preserve and increase the production 137 potential of forested areas; and v) increase the surface of water tables for extensive or semi- intensive fish farming. Use of innovative techniques and technologies adapted to the ecological and socioeconomic reality of Niger will be expanded primarily by substantial, direct support to farms in the following ways: i) increasing use of inputs, equipment, and other technological innovations on family farms producing crops or livestock; ii) promoting modern units for farming, agro-forestry, and intensive stockbreeding; and iii) improving the availability and accessibility of inputs and equipment for crops, and stockbreeding and veterinary purposes. The creation of legal, institutional, and tax conditions conducive to agricultural development, and transformation and modernization of production systems will entail: i) land security; ii) strengthening the general knowledge and skills of stakeholders and participants in rural development, food security, and the economy of the sectors; iii) strengthening the capacity of public and private institutions for support and advisory and other services to provide to their respective target groups; and iv) setting up a risk management system that will enable producers to deal with multiple risks and minimize the negative local effects that may be caused by certain investments. The programs and their expected results of increasing and diversifying agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish production are summarized below: Programs Results 1. Rehabilitation of irrigated land areas; Increase in production of 2. Development of new irrigated land areas; irrigated land 3. Development of small village and family irrigation systems. Improvement of the yield of 1. Access of producers to the factors of production is facilitated; rainfed crops 2. Access of producers to technologies and information is ensured. Increase in animal production 1. Animal production is made secure 2. Animal production is intensified. Increase in forest, fish, and 1. Forest, fish, and bee products are developed; bee production 2. Sustainable development of natural resources is ensured; 3. Supports for development of forest, fish, and bee production are put in place. b. Priority programs and activities: Program to increase irrigated production Improving irrigation should make a substantial contribution to meeting the country’s economic challenges, namely to ensure the growth of GDP, increase foreign exchange receipts, reduce poverty, and improve food security. 138 The program is designed to increase the contribution of irrigation and of harvested stream waters to national farm production. The targeted areas are essentially the valley of the Niger River, the Tarka, Komadougou, the terraces of the Goulbi, the Dallois, the Korama, the basins of oases, the Irhazer plains, and other humid zones. The following actions will be given priority under this program: i) development of small village and family irrigation systems; ii) rehabilitation of existing perimeters; and iii) creation and upgrading of new hydro-agricultural developments, including regeneration of ecosystems and development of the Niger Valley. Box 3. Kandadji dam agricultural production program The Kandadjhi dam was built, among other reasons, for the purpose of regenerating the ecosystems and further development of the Niger Valley, in order to help reduce poverty by regenerating the natural environment, improving security, and covering energy needs. A 44-month contract was signed for construction of this dam. Work was initiated on May 23, 2011. The medium- and long-term development planned under the Kandadji Program, at an annual rate ranging from 1,000 to 1,500 hectares, will require the use of labor estimated at 100,000 man days per year (i.e., 333 permanent jobs) throughout the duration of the Program. Lasting jobs created by development of the land are estimated to number over 60,000 a year. The Kandadji Program plans to develop 45,000 ha over 30 years, to take into account certain constraints linked to the rate of development in Niger. In the short run, the program is focusing on 10,000 ha: - 2,000 ha in the process of being executed; - 4,000 ha under study; - 4,000 ha for which financing is being negotiated. Proposed crop rotation will involve rice in a two-crop cycle, sugar cane, sorghum, cassava, cotton, market gardening, cowpeas, corn, groundnuts, and trees, which seem to be the best adapted to existing conditions, crop-growing practices and market demand. According to the recommended rate of development of irrigation and crop rotation systems, the additional annual production is estimated at 320,000 tons. This will significantly improve food security and increase the income of the stakeholders in the sector. 139 Program for improving the yield of rainfed crops The imbalance between population growth (3.3 percent a year) and agricultural growth (2.2 percent) in the country has led to increased land pressure, decreasing yields, and the expansion of crops to marginal land. There is still little use of modern inputs: barely 2.5 percent of farmers use selected seeds, a very small minority use fertilizers, etc. The program intends to increase yield by 35 percent on 25 percent of the land under cultivation, by focusing on the following priorities: i) facilitating access of producers to farm inputs and equipment; and ii) disseminating information and transferring technologies to farmers. Program to increase animal production Due to the under-exploitation of potential animal production, it is essential to remove the obstacles linked to the shortage of livestock feed, the shortage of zootechnical and veterinarian inputs, the absence of infrastructure that meets international health standards, and the shortcomings of the organization of professional stockbreeders. The program will increase the available supply of animal products (milk, meat, and eggs). Priority will be given to the feed, health, and watering of stock, creating and rehabilitating corridors for livestock, implementation of conflict prevention and settlement mechanisms, creation of modern farms, genetic improvement, and promotion of short-cycle stockbreeding. Program to increase forest, fish, and bee production Forest, fish, and bee production has the potential to make a significant contribution to achieving food and nutritional security for the people. The program aims at increasing forest, fish, and bee production, promoting good practices for sustainable management of national resources supported by research, and at promoting private initiatives. In synergy with the program for the “sustainable management of natural resources,� this program will contribute to restoring degraded land, fighting desertification, conserving and managing ecosystems, and managing biodiversity. Its objective is to ensure the sustainable development of forest, fish, and bee resources. Priority activities under the program include the following: i) development of forest, fish, and bee products, by management of natural forests, reforestation, and planting utilitarian species to increase the coverage of national forests and their resilience to climate change, development of agroforestry, development of community forests, and support for development of bee 140 production; ii) promotion of practices for the sustainable development of natural resources; and iii) support for development of forest, fish, and bee production. 3.4.2. Rural and urban markets are regularly supplied with agricultural and agrifood products a. General guidelines: In this area, the goal is to facilitate and stimulate development of a leading agricultural market without creating any imbalances or breaks in the supply to consumers. The following steps will be taken: i) building the capacity for storage and preservation of products; ii) promotion of processing of farm products and agro-industrial production; iii) improvement of infrastructure and marketing circuits, including for exports; and iv) accelerating preparation and implementation of a national policy for trading in agricultural, forest, and livestock products. The programs and expected results in the regular supply of agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish products to rural and urban markets are summarized below: Programs Results 1. Existing agrifood industries are upgraded; Artisanal and agro- industrial 2. New units for processing local agricultural products are preservation and processing of created; local products 3. New units for preserving local agricultural products are created. 1. Natural, unprocessed products are available on the markets; 2. Processed or preserved products are available on the markets; Marketing local agricultural, 3. Markets for local agricultural and agrifood products are forest, and livestock products operational; 4. Transport of agricultural and agrifood products is facilitated. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for artisanal and agro-industrial preservation and processing of local products One of the characteristics of the Nigerien rural economy is its low development capacity and the absence of an adequate system for preserving and processing agricultural, forest, livestock, or fish products. The objective of the program for “artisanal and agro-industrial preservation and processing of local products� is to increase the capacity for processing and preserving local agricultural, forest, animal, and fish products. Action will focus on modernization of the tools of production, improvement of systems for managing agrifood units, assistance and advisory services on ways to process and preserve agricultural and fish products, support for creating processing and 141 preservation units, support to operators in installing or rehabilitating infrastructure, equipment, and materials for preservation and storage, improvement of preservation and storage techniques and technologies, promotion of production of packaging that meets commercial standards, and strengthening of research and dissemination. It is especially important to encourage the creation of artisanal and semi-artisanal preservation and processing units in communes and villages, the installation of agro-industrial and agrifood units in urban centers, and measures to improve the competitiveness of businesses by support for modernization, compliance with standards, and promotion of consumption and, in general, by improving the quality of agrifood products sold on the market. Program for marketing local agricultural, forest, and livestock products One of the characteristics of the Nigerien rural economy is its low development capacity and the absence of an adequate collective system for bringing local agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish products to market. The purpose of the program is to supply markets with foodstuffs from local natural or unprocessed agricultural, forestry, livestock, and fish products, and with foodstuffs made from processing or preserving those products. Priority activities under the program are as follows: i) rehabilitation, construction, and organization of markets; ii) installation of trading posts; iii) construction of service roads; iv) modernization of marketing networks; and v) facilitation of transport of basic food products. 3.4.3. Increased resilience of vulnerable groups to food crises and natural disasters a. General guidelines: The emphasis here is on improving the response capacity of households and grass-roots communities to shortages in crop or livestock production and natural disasters. The recommended measures will: i) improve the effectiveness of mechanisms for predicting and coordinating interventions in emergency situations; ii) ensure appropriate responses adapted to each emergency situation; and iii) promote and strengthen risk management provisions and mechanisms. Risk management mechanisms linked to food insecurity should lead to an improvement in the resilience of vulnerable groups to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters. The programs and expected results in this area of improving the resilience of vulnerable groups to climate change, food crises, and natural disasters are as follows: 142 Programs Results Improving mechanisms for 1. Information systems on food crises and natural disasters are anticipating and coordinating developed; emergencies 2. Coordination and management of the intervention mechanism are improved; 3. A multiple risk management plan is put in place. Adaptation of responses to 1. Food crises and disasters are managed. crises and natural disasters b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improving mechanisms for anticipating and coordinating emergencies Niger experiences recurrent, large-scale food crises. Management of these crises requires exceptional mobilization of considerable human and financial resources. The program for improving mechanisms for anticipating and coordinating emergencies is designed to prevent food crises and natural disasters. Priority activities under this program will focus on the following: i) Consolidating and building rapid information systems on food crises and disasters; ii) Ensuring national coordination of crisis management and prevention efforts and a strengthening of the crisis or disaster response mechanism; iii) establishment of a multiple-risk management plan; iv) setting up a mechanism for monitoring and evaluation of operations; and v) participation in the Pan-African risk management mechanism, ARC [Africa Risk Capacity]. Program for adaptation of responses to crisis and natural disasters The high frequency of food and nutrition crises and the crisis of grazing systems have revealed shortcomings in policies and strategies used to increase agricultural, forest, livestock, and fish production. The situation is compounded by the shortcomings of mechanisms in place to respond to crises and natural disasters. This program is a response to the major shortcomings in the supply of services (insufficient amount of support or assistance), and in the quality of the response (failure to respect humanitarian standards and principles) and coordination. Its objective is to improve the performance of mechanisms for management of food crises and disasters. 143 Priority activities under this program include the following: i) improving the performance of instruments for prevention and management of crises and disasters; ii) increasing and developing coordinated emergency action for the most vulnerable groups; iii) implementing a contingency plan to deal with climate, ecological, biological, social, health, commercial, and macroeconomic risks; iv) development of a system of nearby storage facilities; and v) supervising and building the capacity of local populations to adapt and develop survival strategies. 3.4.4. Improved nutritional status of Nigeriens a. General guidelines: To improve nutritional status, measures and investments are aimed at: i) promoting balanced food consumption models and models for good hygiene in rural and urban areas, for households as well as schools; ii) reducing the prevalence of different forms of malnutrition; iii) effectively responding to acute malnutrition in crisis situations; iv) strengthening the mechanism for sanitary control of foodstuffs; and v) strengthening the national system for monitoring nutrition and evaluating nutrition interventions. These guidelines are in line with the ones in the health and nutrition strategy. Efforts to improve the nutritional status are keyed to two results to be achieved by implementing a single program. Program Results Prevention of different forms of 1. Incidence of different types of malnutrition is reduced; malnutrition 2. The different cases of acute malnutrition are addressed. b. Priority programs and activities: Program to prevent the different forms of malnutrition The nutritional situation of vulnerable groups (children less than five years of age and pregnant and breast-feeding women) is of great concern, especially since population growth rates remain much too high. The objective of the program is to reduce the vulnerability of Nigeriens to malnutrition. The program gives priority to: i) promoting good family practices and behavior, and appropriate eating practices; ii) creating school farms and gardens; iii) improving the nutritional quality of school cafeterias; iv) strengthening the mechanism for sanitary control of foodstuffs; v) ensuring widespread coverage of health and sanitation measures; vi) improving the capacity for treatment of malnutrition; and vii) strengthening the institutional framework for management of malnutrition in Niger. 144 3.4.5. Coordination of sectoral policies, mobilization and accountability of stakeholders are ensured a. General guidelines Efforts in this area focus on creating conditions to coordinate sectoral policies, guarantee adequate financing, and promote the participation of stakeholders concerned about food security and sustainable agricultural development. Effective coordination will be ensured on the basis of a sectoral and an intersectoral approach where all stakeholders participate, according to their functions and roles, in efforts to achieve agricultural development and food security, and in increased, continuous efforts to raise investment financing. Five results will be sought by implementing two programs: Programs Results Coordination of sectoral 1. Sectoral policies and strategies are coordinated; strategies and policies and 2. Access to financing investments in food security and sustainable mobilization of financing agricultural development is facilitated. Mobilization and 1. Stakeholders are informed and made aware; accountability of 2. The intervention capacity of stakeholders is strengthened; stakeholders in 3. Stakeholders participate in implementing the Initiative. implementing the 3N-I b. Priority programs and activities Program for coordination of sectoral policies and strategies and mobilization of financing This program should make it possible to improve conditions for access to financing, promote the necessary reforms, and ensure the consistency of policies and strategies in the sector. Efforts will be made to mitigate the fragmentation of the institutional framework, ensure coordination of sectoral policies and strategies, harmonize approaches, and mobilize public and private financing from the central government (government budget and creation of a secured fund for agricultural investments), local governments, technical and financial partners, and the private sector (banks, microfinancial institutions, public and private partnerships). 145 Program for mobilization and accountability of stakeholders The participatory option for implementing the 3N Initiative requires mobilization and accountability on the part of stakeholders, including individuals and groups of individuals as well as public and private institutions. Efforts will be made to enlist their conscientious involvement in and commitment to the process at all levels. The objective of the program is to ensure the full and responsible participation of stakeholders by implementing a participatory system of governance and mobilization. Priority activities under the program will include social communication, promotion of partnerships, development of public appeals, and capacity-building of the stakeholders. For these purposes, an operational social communications strategy and a program for training, briefing, and sensitizing stakeholders will be put in place. 146 3.5. PILLAR 4: A COMPETITIVE, DIVERSIFIED ECONOMY FOR ACCELERATED AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH The new growth model entails adoption of a new vision of sectoral policies, to take into account the different challenges and to work toward the long-term transformation of the structure of the economy. The engines of growth are thus clearly identified as the extractive industries, including both mining and petroleum, and the ancillary industries resulting from those activities. The considerable natural and mineral wealth and potential resources that abound in Niger have led to plans to restructure its economy, so that it can be the foundation for strong, long-term growth. More specifically, the benefits of this growth need to be distributed to form the basis for the development of the entire economy. Thus, certain sectors, such as transportation, handicrafts, and small businesses, which are important purveyors of jobs, should benefit from this growth to provide increased work and income in their sectors. Moreover, financing important structural investments will make it possible not only to develop a national economic structure, but also to create jobs and opportunities, especially for youth, and will thus be a source of accelerated and inclusive growth. 3.5.1. Strong, sustained economic growth 3.5.1.1. The business climate is improved a. General guidelines The strategy used to improve the business climate is based on simplifying procedures, introducing ways to facilitate and keep down costs (taxes, access to credit, and property ownership), and increasing the flexibility of the labor code. These activities will make Niger more attractive to foreign private investors (as measured by the annual survey, “Doing Business�). A program has been identified to enhance the promotion and security of private investment. 147 Programs Results 1. A trade policy is prepared; 2. The investment code is revised and adopted; 3. Acquisition of property deeds is facilitated; 4. Procedures for establishing or opening a business are simplified, in accordance with OHADA; Promotion and security of 5. Establishment committees are functional; private investment 6. The labor code is revised; 7. Special courts are created to process international trade matters, in keeping with OHADA legislation; 8. The activities of the National Council of Private Investors are reorganized; 9. The number of required import documents is reduced; 10. The mining code is revised; 11. The private-public partnership framework for regulating the transportation, energy, and water sectors is operational. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for promotion and security of private investment This program will be based on several key measures, including the following: i) strengthening the single window; ii) adoption of provisions on exemptions, and improving conditions for access to bank credit and loans from decentralized financial systems; and iii) functional business firms. Other activities will also be undertaken to encourage economic activity and private enterprise: i) implementation of the charter of small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs); ii) study on investment opportunities and areas of potential in Niger; iii) facilitated access to bank financing; iv) strengthening the institutional mechanism for implementing the entrepreneurship promotion program; v) informing and raising the awareness of young businessmen; vi) implementation of financial sector reforms; and vii) improving access to decentralized financial services. As regards public enterprises, a data base will be set up, a new regulatory framework will be proposed, and the portfolio will be cleaned up, while development of public-private partnerships will be promoted. This program also includes renovation of the institutional and regulatory framework of investment, consultation and coordination among social partners, and revision of the labor code. 148 3.5.1.2. An effective financial intermediation framework for economic activity a. General guidelines: An efficient financial system is critical for supporting economic activity and growth. In the current situation in Niger marked by weak financial intermediation, development of the system as a whole will therefore be facilitated and encouraged. Every component of the financial sector should be developed to respond to expressed needs and future realities in the country, with a view to anticipating the future and thus avoiding any blockage or slowdown in economic activity. The action plan for the financial sector comprises two programs and nine results: Programs Results 1. Bank offices and branches effectively cover the country (number Development of the system and location of bank offices); of banks and credit 2. A number of bank products and services is diversified; institutions 3. Improved coverage of decentralized financial systems throughout the country; 4. New financial products and services adapted to the needs of vulnerable population groups are designed and available on the markets. Development of the 1. Effective coverage of the country by insurance agencies (number insurance sector and location of insurance agencies); 2. Number of diversified insurance products and services. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for development of the sector of banks and financial institutions This program will: i) bring the minimum equity capital of structures up to the required level; ii) ensure respect for prudential ratios; iii) ensure sectoral studies on financing conditions of SMEs and the agricultural sector; and iv) consolidate decentralized financial systems by applying the new legal framework, among other things. 149 The program aspires to ensure that, by the end of the 2012-2015 Plan, all banks will have equity capital of at least CFAF 5 billion and all financial institutions will have equity of at least CFAF 1 billion, and that all banks will be in compliance with prudential ratios. Studies and operational recommendations focus on financing SMEs and the agricultural sector. Insurance development program This program focuses on: i) application of all regulations governing insurance operations by 2015; ii) implementation of laws on the obligation of insuring economic activity and capital assets, in order to adapt to the new realities of the country by 2015; and iii) promoting the entry of new stakeholders, to strengthen competition and better meet the people’s needs. 3.5.1.3. Strengthening efforts to open up the country internally and externally a. General guidelines: Development of land transportation infrastructure will rely on improving current maintenance of the road system, rehabilitating the national road system, pursuing and strengthening efforts to open up the country externally and internally, by developing and surfacing new roads, opening up under-served rural zones, modernizing towns, building bridges, tunnels, etc., and promoting railways. The sectoral policy will be based on three programs to achieve four results: Programs Results Development of land 1. Efforts to open up the country, both domestically and transport infrastructure and air externally, are pursued and strengthened. service Development of railway 1. A railway transport system is being developed. infrastructure 1. The national road system is preserved; Road maintenance 2. Road maintenance is improved. b. Priority programs and activities: Road infrastructure development program Under this program, continuing and increased efforts will be made to open up the country by developing and surfacing new linkage roads, developing and surfacing international roads to bordering countries, modernization of towns and cities, opening up of rural areas, and construction of engineering works, such as bridges and interchanges. 150 Railway infrastructure development program This program will provide for rehabilitation and extension of the Cotonou-Parakou-Dosso-Niamey railway line and construction of the Niamey-Tera-Dori-Kaya railway line (these two projects are branches of the Cotonou-Niamey-Ouagadougou-Abidjan railway loop). There are also plans to study the Kaoura Namoda-Sokoto-Birni N’Konni and Kano-Magaria-Zinder lines. This program will be initiated and gradually completed during the 2012-2015 PDES. Road maintenance program The current maintenance system for the road network will be strengthened and resources allocated for this purpose will be increased (CAFER). A vast program of rehabilitation of tarred and dirt roads is also planned. During the next three years, a study will consider transforming CAFER into a second-generation road fund. On an institutional level, the government intends to complete its updating of the national transportation strategy and its action plan. It will also strengthen the capacity of the construction and public works sector and fully implement regulations on axle fees. 3.5.1.4. Access to information and communications technologies [ICT] is facilitated a. General guidelines: The strategy to facilitate access to ICT emphasizes the important role of ITC in facilitating strong, lasting growth. The country has made impressive progress in this sector, by increasing the telephone penetration rate from 0.19 main lines per 100 inhabitants in 1999 to 25 lines per 100 inhabitants in 2010. The government has a strategy for developing ICT infrastructure and services that will strive to make ICT a powerful tool for development, by putting in place a communications infrastructure development program to promote computerization in all sectors. 151 Programs Results 1. The national fiber optic backbone and external and cross-border inter-connectivity are completed; 2. Internet exchange points are realized; 3. The government intranet and extranet are completed; Development of 4. Universal access to ICT services is ensured; infrastructure, 5. Digital content and applications are developed; digital content and 6. Infrastructure for digital terrestrial television is deployed; applications 7. The digital television program is diversified, available, and accessible; 8. Legal and institutional provisions are adapted to convergence and information age services are available; 9. The human and institutional capacities of the sector are strengthened. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for development of digital communications infrastructure, applications, and content It will provide for development of information and communications technologies to meet the modernization needs of other sectors. It will bolster gains achieved so far, while developing innovative new projects and programs to build an information society, by: i) creating a more favorable legal and institutional environment for development of the ICT/telecommunications sector; ii) developing a technological and infrastructure environment conducive to ICT/telecommunications; iii) promoting universal access to ICT services; iv) developing digital applications and content by implementing sectoral ICT strategies; v) carrying out communications, training, research, and capacity building activities in the area of ICT; and, vi) promoting access to modern postal services throughout the country. 3.5.1.5. Television viewers, radio listeners, and readers are satisfied with media offerings a. General guidelines: In the communications sector, the PDES will use the strategic guidelines defined in the Renaissance Program and in the National Policy on Communications for Development (PNCD). The latter policy purports to open up information thresholds between the central government and its partners, between the government and the governed, between the government and grass-roots communities, and among the grass-roots communities themselves, and in general to upgrade the country’s image. The objective is to promote communications for development by strengthening the capacity to assimilate and adopt activities carried out by various stakeholders of national development, or activities that have not yet been undertaken to meet the challenge of a real change in the attitudes and behavior 152 of global society. In this context, television and radio will play a key role in transmitting information, thanks to the introduction and development of adequate infrastructure. The PDES will use the following strategies: i) improvement of the legal and institutional framework; ii) development of a strategic partnership; iii) improvement of respect for ethics and good conduct; iv) strengthening human and technical capacities of media and ICT personnel; v) strengthening the public-private partnership framework; and vi) improving the production and distribution systems. The PDES will focus on seven results in this subsector, to be achieved by implementing two programs. Program Results 1. Broader coverage of the country by the national media; Development of media 2. Modernization and development of media infrastructure; offerings 3. Upgrading of traditional communications tools, channels, and spaces; 4. Quality information produced and disseminated. Improvement of living and 1. An appropriate legal and institutional framework is operational; working conditions of media 2. The human and technical capacity of media personnel are workers strengthened; 3. Internalization, coordination, implementation, and monitoring and evaluation of the PNCD. b. Priority programs and activities: Program on development of media offerings It aims at improving the legal and institutional framework and improving the production and distribution systems. Measures for improving the legal and institutional framework include updating the map of community radios and revising the instrument on audiovisual communications. To improve the production and distribution system, the focus will be on strengthening community radio activities, developing the online press, rehabilitating the rural press in the national languages, creating multi-use community telecenters, creating community multimedia documentation centers, rehabilitating the Nigerien Press Agency (ANP), promoting the creation of private audiovisual production companies, and upgrading traditional and local communications tools. Program for improving living and working conditions of media workers It aims at strengthening the human and technical capacity of media personnel, and information and communications technologies. Measures to strengthen the capacity of human resources include training in communications for different stakeholders, including journalists, researchers, members of government, elected officials, government officials, NGOs and development associations, and grass-roots communities, to name a few. For technical capacity building, technical and teaching materials will be provided to the Information and Communications 153 Technology Training Institute (IFTIC), radio clubs, literacy centers, women’s discussion centers, and FADAs. 3.5.1.6. Improving the competitiveness of the industrial sector a. General guidelines: The National Industrial Development Strategy (SNDI) is based on three key programs, to produce six results that focus on upgrading national products and increasing the density of the industrial sector to spark more competition and increase its share of GDP. Programs Results Strengthening the sector’s 1. A more efficient institutional framework; institutional and organizational 2. An innovative, quality-oriented policy is implemented. framework Development of the industrial 1. Reduction in production costs; sector 2. National products are more competitive; 3. Production capacity is increased. Revitalization of the system of standards 1. National products comply with international standards b. Priority programs and activities: Program for strengthening the institutional and organizational framework The program purports to: i) prepare and adopt a coherent, suitable industrial policy; ii) adopt an industrial development plan; iii) prepare and adopt a national innovation and industrial property and patents policy; iv) create new industrial zones; and v) create specialized courts. Industrial development program This program will focus on identifying production zones and on building infrastructure for production and transportation of products. Other measures are contemplated to support producers, reduce transportation and energy costs, and facilitate development of industrial units, especially in the area of processing farm products. Program for implementing and verifying standardization of industrial products This program will focus on improving the application of existing standards, developing the standardization framework (preparation of new standards), and action to disseminate all of these standards. Other measures will include evaluation of industrial firms, improving the economic performance of 75 industrial firms, implementing a mechanism for monitoring and evaluation of 154 plans for restructuring and upgrading or retooling industrial firms, monitoring the quality of local and imported products, and dissemination and internalization of the quality program. 3.5.1.7. Improving the productivity of the mining sector in a rational and sustainable way a. General guidelines: To enable the mining sector to make a more significant contribution to economic growth, the mining policy will follow three strategies: i) integrated management of mineral resources; ii) development of small-scale mining operations; and iii) sustainable management of the mining environment. This strategy will be implemented through three programs, designed to achieve four results: Programs Results Improving knowledge of the 1. Mining activities are better monitored mining potential Sustainable management of 1. Mineral production is diversified; mineral resources 2. Mining operations produce increased benefits for communes. Improving the institutional 1. Better management of the mining sector framework b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improving knowledge of the mining potential This program includes: i) development of reconnaissance geological mapping; ii) extending research to unexplored zones and approval of a master plan on geological and mining research; iii) development of mining sites and updating of their maps; iv) consolidating and securing existing mining promotion data by strengthening the mechanism for preserving these data; and v) implementation of a mining policy and acquisition of modern control instruments to protect the national mining environment. 155 Program for sustainable management of mineral resources This program consists in developing efficient supervision of the sector and in promoting mining production. Supervision of the mining sector will be developed through the following four steps: i) daily monitoring of mining activities and strengthening government control of mining operations, mainly by preparing a new mining code; ii) creating a laboratory for analysis and control; iii) preparing and adopting regulations in this area; and iv) encouraging the formation of economic interest groups in relation to artisanal mining operations. Promotion of mining production will rely on evidence of new reserves provided by SONICHAR, creation of new regional mining “poles,� creation of a fund for artisanal mining operations, training human resources in the sector, and revitalization of the National Geological and Mining Research Center. Program for improving the institutional framework Improving the institutional framework will involve strengthening the administrative and institutional capacity to better manage the sector. An emphasis will be placed on training ministry officials in charge of mining and environmental matters (dissemination and application of laws and regulations, handling of new geological and mining information technologies, etc.). Other action will include: i) strengthening government structures for supervision, monitoring, and control of the mining sector, and especially small mining operations; ii) implementing an efficient, computerized mining register; iii) continuous updating of geological and mining data, and ensuring the sustainability of and promoting the documentation center (SIGMINES), for the benefit of mining investors; and iv) organization of mining promotional activities to attract new investors. In this area, after adopting the charter for good governance of mineral and petroleum resources, the focus will be on ensuring transparent, responsible management of these resources. It will also be necessary to measure the environmental and social impact of these activities, with a view to attenuating negative repercussions on communities. Moreover, resources from extractive industries should be clearly identified, in order to contribute to financing key economic and social sectors, and to anticipate the needs of future generations. 156 3.5.1.8. Increased access of the population to energy and hydrocarbons a. General guidelines: The sectoral policy is designed to facilitate access of the population to energy and hydrocarbons and to strengthen the sector’s contribution to economic growth in a context of sustainable development. The strategy will be based primarily on revitalizing the institutional and regulatory framework and on increasing promotion of national energy and petroleum resources. Three results are expected to be achieved by implementing three programs. Programs Results Institutional and regulatory 1. The institutional and regulatory framework is favors the support sector’s development. Promotion of energy resources 1. Increased access of the population to energy resources Promotion of oil resources 1. Increased access of the population to hydrocarbons b. Priority programs and activities: Program for institutional and regulatory support This program will include creation of a coordination and consultation framework, preparation of energy and oil policies, and implementation of regulations. Other activities will involve institutionalization of renewable energy and MERS-AO day, establishment of a National Agency for Access to Energy Services (ANASE), creation of a fund for access to energy services, organization of a round table of lenders for financing the Reference Program on Access to Energy Services (PRASE), and knowledge of the installed capacity of renewables. Program for promotion of oil resources The government will devise a private investment incentive policy, revitalize partner diversification policies, increase financing, and strengthen human and material resources. Other measures anticipated under the PDES will involve: i) promotion of butane gas in the regions; ii) promoting oil research; iii) upgrading oil resources; iv) building the technical and institutional capacity of the hydrocarbon sector; and v) participation of Niger in the trans-Saharan gas pipeline project. 157 Program for promotion of energy resources Promotion of energy resources will concentrate on five primary steps: i) rehabilitation of the means of production, transportation, and distribution of NIGELEC and SONICHAR; ii) better development of national energy resources; iii) building the capacity for supplying the country with electricity; iv) developing electricity exchanges between Niger and neighboring countries; and v) strengthening the process of producing electricity (thermal, coal-fired power plant in Salkadamna, Kandadji hydroelectric plant, and the Gourou-banda thermal power station project). Box 4. Kandadji hydroelectric plant Construction of this hydroelectric dam, a project in the works for several decades, is designed to ensure the country’s independence in electricity. The Kandadji plant building, located directly downstream from the plant intakes [prises usinières], contains four groups of identical Kaplan-style alternating turbines with a nominal unit capacity of 32.5 MW, or a total power generation capacity of 130 MW. The average guaranteed energy production of this plant is 629 GWh/year. The electricity produced by this plant will be transmitted to consumption centers by means of a high-voltage, 2-phase transmission line of 132 kV. Promotion of renewable energy resources will also make it possible to anticipate a development scenario that will not compromise the capacity of future generations to respond to their own needs. The immediate consequences will be an improvement in access to power of people living in rural areas, a critical component of Niger’s working population. In addition, during the period of the Plan, it should be possible to conduct studies to meet prerequisites for implementation of an electronuclear program. At the same time, the activities of the National Multisectoral Energy Framework will be consolidated with the SNCC-SA, to ensure production of over 50,000 tons, and supply all villages of more than 1,000 inhabitants with power. 3.5.1.9. Increasing the competitiveness of the artisanal sector a. General guidelines: The artisanal policy is aimed at the development of artisanal products. It is based on three programs: i) improving the quality of products; ii) development adequate marketing networks; and iii) strengthening the institutional and regulatory framework and introducing an effective alternative financing system. 158 Programs Results Improving the quality of products 1. Increased sale of artisanal products 2. The system for quality certification of artisanal products is operational. Development of adequate 1. The framework for exporting artisanal products is marketing networks strengthened. Strengthening the institutional and 1. The financial system is adapted to the development needs financial framework of the sector of artisanal activities. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improving the quality of products It will provide for the construction, e quipping, and promotion of artisanal centers and villages (Diffa, Balleyara, and Maradi “centre des malvoyants�), training of artisans in these centers, training and socioeconomic insertion of women artisans, pursuit of the institutionalization of SAFEM, and enhancing its renown internationally. The program will also be aimed at promoting technological innovations, developing continuing education and training of artisans, and assistance to artisans in obtaining quality raw materials. Program for developing the marketing network The following activities will be carried out: links with export markets will be strengthened, outlets and marketing opportunities will be increased, distribution circuits will be ensured, and finally quality certification of artisanal products will be introduced. Program for strengthening the institutional and financial framework The institutional framework will be strengthened as follows: i) by strengthening the frame of reference of artisanal production; ii) by adapting the tax system applied to artisans; iii) by developing microfinancing institutions; and iv) by facilitating access to the banking sector and to decentralized financial institutions, and creating credits adapted to artisanal activity cycles. 159 3.5.1.10. Development of trade a. General guidelines: The trade policy will be based on two concurrent programs for achieving six results. Programs Results 1. Guaranteed access to quality information on trade; 2. Improved foreign trade statistics; Guiding the trade sector 3. Preparation of a trade policy document and an action plan; 4. The ministry’s capacity to implement trade policy is strengthened. Competitiveness of local 1. Improvement in product quality; products 2. Verification of compliance of local products with standards. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for guiding the trade sector It consists of the following priority activities: i) definition of a sector policy and its action plan; ii) creation of a foreign trade data base by updating the existing data base; iii) training MCI/N and MCPSP personnel and strengthening their staffs; iv) updating of existing studies; v) strengthening the public-private consultation framework; and vi) strengthening instruments to support export promotion and bilateral negotiations to open new markets. Program for product quality improvement This program is based on: i) building storage facilities at various local sites; ii) construction and outfitting of the premises of the Agency for Verification of Compliance with Standards and making it operational; iii) equipping testing, analysis, and inspection laboratories and equipping metrology certification structures; iv) training and briefing on quality health and sanitation standards; and v) setting up a compliance certification system and making international standards available. 160 3.5.1.11. The Nigerien economy is better integrated regionally and internationally a. General guidelines: The objective of the policy in this sector is to put Niger in a favorable position in the context of the integration process. This will be achieved by implementing two programs, one dealing with integration in regional and global trade, and the other on promoting Niger’s representation in subregional institutions. The activities of this subsector will be facilitated by a spurt in investments to complete the railway loop and to improve transportation infrastructure, and international roads in particular. Programs Results Integration in regional and 1. Competitive national products global trade Representation of Niger in 1. Niger is well represented in integration organizations; subregional institutions 2. Niger serves as headquarters of regional institutions. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for integration in regional and global trade This program will achieve the following: i) preparation of a national integration policy; ii) strengthening of staff and skills in the institutions involved; and ii) promotion and coordination of activities to improve the competitiveness of national products. Program of representation in regional institutions The government will devise a strategy to ensure that Niger is present in international forums and institutions, and will launch appeals to integration institutions to install their headquarters in Niger. 3.5.1.12. Improvement in the performance of the transportation sector a. General guidelines: The transportation policy has three priorities, each the focal point of one of the three programs in the sector: i) improvement of air services; ii) development of the quality of transportation services; and iii) strengthening the management capacity of the transportation sector. 161 Programs Results Improvement of air service 1. International airports are brought up to standards; 2. The capacity of airports in increased Development of quality surface 1. Road safety is improved; transportation services 2. The country’s transportation capacity is increased Development of transportation 1. The transportation sector is managed more efficiently. management capacity b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improvement of air services This program consists of six priority activities: i) creation of a viable national air transportation company; ii) improving inspection and supervision of flights; iii) tightening control of air transport companies; iv) modernization and rehabilitation of the international airports in Niamey, Agadez, and Zinder, as well as smaller airfields; v) establishment of master plans of airports; and vi) defining the boundaries of and safeguarding airports, and completion of the walls enclosing airports. Program for development of quality surface transportation services Development of quality transportation services entails the creation of parking lots, the establishment of the national road safety agency, facilitating access to automobile loans, modernization of the transportation system, diversification of the supply of transportation, renewal of the public transportation fleet of cars, reduction of checkpoints and elimination of tariff barriers. Program for development of transportation management capacity Activities to be carried out over the course of the Plan include: strengthening the institutional framework; adopting laws to implement the codes; easing the tax burden; seeking public-private partnerships; setting up computerized data banks; development of human resources; technical capacity building; and, putting the freight exchange into operation. 162 3.5.1.13. Improvement in the competitiveness of Niger as a tourist destination a. General guidelines: The sector policy will be based on two programs to increase the supply of services offered (accommodation capacity) and improve the institutional and management framework of the sector. Programs Results Increase in the 1. The quality of tourist services is improved; accommodation capacity 2. Increased hotel capacity. Improving the institutional 1. The sector is better managed and cooperation is strengthened; and financial framework 2. Increased investments in the sector. b. Priority programs and activities: Program to increase accommodation capacity This program aspires to bring hotels and facilities up to standards, to rehabilitate tourist establishments, renew the car fleet of travel agencies, expand the use of information technologies, increase accommodation capacity, and reduce regional disparities. The program also intends to diversify, develop, and promote the array of tourist offerings and improve the technical performance of those working in the sector. All of the activities planned under this program will be implemented by public-private partnerships (PPP). Program to improve the institutional, management, and financing framework The government will implement a training program, take the necessary steps to improve information and statistical data, introduce performance supervision, and develop qualifications to enhance the professionalization of the sector, increase public financing and investments in the sector, and introduce incentives, including tax incentives, to assist private investment. 3.5.2. Youth are incorporated into the economic network a. General guidelines: The vision underlying the youth development strategy is to make Niger youth emancipated, responsible youth and a basic pillar of sustainable economic and social development and poverty reduction. 163 The general guidelines consist in reducing the vulnerability and improving the well-being of youth by incorporating them into economic circuits and having them participate actively in the country’s economic and social development. This will be accomplished through two programs to be implemented during the 2012-2015 period, to achieve five results. Programs Results Participation of youth in 1. Increased involvement of youth in sustainable development; development 2. Development of youth volunteers and dialogue in the area of development activities Promoting insertion of 1. A formal mechanism to ensure the integration of youth; youth into the economy 2. Improvement in the qualifications of new job seekers; 3. Access of youth to remunerated, decent work is ensured. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for promoting integration of youth into the economy This initiative is designed to address the major challenge of unemployment or under-employment of youth, which is both a waste of human capital and a social risk factor. It is recommended that an urgent youth job promotion program be put in place, with a focus on green jobs, to include the participation of all the ministries concerned with youth issues. It should be organized around three key measures: i) improving the quality of youth training through a more practical course content in tune with the socio-economic needs of their environment; ii) rationalization of the different existing insertion mechanisms, after evaluating their current impact, and creation of a system of incentives for businesses to promote access to internships; and iii) measures to facilitate business start-ups by youth (access to credit, tax arrangements). To increase insertion of you and ensure full employment, the government plans to develop the private sector by creating SME/SMIs offering stable jobs, and to promote continuing education and refresher training to ensure that youth adapt to the work environment by creating resource centers. Development of the private sector is a top priority of the government. This is why measures to facilitate creation of small and medium-sized enterprises by youth will be encouraged. A youth entrepreneur charter will be adopted to promote the creation of youth enterprises. To create conditions for access by youth to credits, the government will adopt incentives by granting exemptions and tax relief to the enterprises. Thus introduction of financing instruments for young managers of industrial enterprises, such as creation of a fund, is programmed under the Plan. 164 Program for participation of youth in development It is based on involvement of youth in sustainable development, youth volunteer services, and the decision-making process. Involvement of youth in sustainable development will focus on environmental protection and management of natural resources, by creating teams or units organized around four areas of activity: a healthy environment; land restoration, reforestation and fighting brush fires; making and installing paving; and, recovery and processing of plastic waste. In addition, a vast training program will be organized for youth in movements and associations to strengthen their capacity to intervene in local communities. To this end, forty caravans will be organized by youth associations and movements, in coordination with the institution responsible for consolidation of peace. A youth volunteer service will be set up in coordination with the National Service for participation and increased involvement of youth in volunteer and charitable activities of public use and in decision making. Involvement of youth in the decision-making process will be encouraged by putting in place a platform for expression, dialogue, and consultation of youth. The capacity of youth in the areas of promotion of peace and democracy will be strengthened. Youth will be motivated to get involved in volunteer and charitable activities to lead community development activities and emergency operations by organizing large assemblies of young people and developing youth initiatives. 165 3.6. PILLAR 5. PROMOTION OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT: THE LEVEL OF SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED During the past decade, important progress has been made in developing human capital and social welfare. This remains vital to the country. The government will therefore emphasize increasing income and employment, developing education, instruction, and technical and professional training, health, and especially maternal health, social welfare, and access to modern energy services. Social services to the population will benefit not only from quantitative improvements on the supply side, but also from a clear focus on the quality of social services. 3.6.1. The health of the population is improved, especially for vulnerable groups a. General guidelines: In the area of health, the general objective of the PDES is to help improve the health of the population, in order to achieve the MDGs linked to the health sector. More specifically, it aims at offering quality care and services to the population, and especially vulnerable groups. The guidelines used are in line with those announced in the 2011-2015 Health Development Plan (PDS), approved in November 2010. The policy implemented under the PDES is designed to achieve eight results by implementing four programs. Programs Results Health care systems effective 1. Intensified efforts to fight communicable and in fighting disease noncommunicable, emerging and re-emerging diseases; 2. Health research is promoted; 3. Health structures are supplied with drugs, consumables, and reagents. Access to health care and 1. Increased access to quality health care and services; quality services 2. Health units have skilled, motivated human resources, according to their needs; 3. Technical facilities and services at different levels of the health system are strengthened. Protection of mothers and 1. Quality care is offered by the reproductive health services. children Management of the health 1. Strengthened governance and leadership; system 2. Financing mechanisms are developed. 166 Priority programs and practices: Program for health care systems effective in fighting disease This program encompasses all activities related to control of diseases, supplying health units, and health research. Intensifying the fight against diseases under integrated surveillance will be based primarily on strengthening existing programs to fight HIV/AIDS, malaria, tuberculosis, and other communicable diseases. Action will be focused on building the capacity of health agents (screening and management), improving the available supply of inputs, and strengthening technical facilities of existing structures. For HIV/AIDS specifically, the goal is to reduce new infections and the mortality of persons diagnosed as HIV-positive by 50 percent by 2015, in the context of universal access to treatment, care, and support, based on stepped-up efforts to attain the “zero� goal subscribed to in the political commitment made at the United Nations General Assembly High-Level Meeting in June 2011. Depending on available resources, the Ministry of Public Health will begin developing operational strategies in areas not yet covered (arterial hypertension, diabetes, drepanocytosis [sickle cell anemia], cancer, etc.). Coordination of health program interventions will also be critical to promoting integrated surveillance of diseases and a global response to epidemics. Emphasis will be placed on revitalizing epidemic control committees and strengthening the capacity of health agents, especially at community level. School health promotion activities will also be strengthened. In addition, the program will include activities in three other areas: efforts to integrate traditional medicine into the health system; promotion of hygiene and sanitation measures, in both a health care setting and in communities; and, development of monitoring and surveillance of health issues linked to climate change. The permanent supply of health units with drugs, vaccines, and other consumables will be ensured for the most part by three priority measures. The first one has to do with strengthening supply logistics, by strengthening the skills of health operators in management of drugs and other treatment inputs, by increasing the security of supplies allocated to structures (health units, pharmacies, and other storage facilities), and by reorganizing the national board of pharmaceutical and chemical products. The second measure has to do with developing biological and scientific technologies through a special focus on building the capacity of health operators in safe blood transfusions, improving the availability of blood and its derivatives in health units, and strengthening quality controls of pharmaceutical products. The third priority action will be to promote pharmaceutical legislation at all levels by specifically targeting capacity-building in the area of pharmaceutical inspections and efforts to curb the illegal drug market. 167 To promote health research, the first priority is to strengthen the legislative and regulatory framework for health research (revision of existing texts, dissemination, and control of application). Then, the focus will turn to strengthening the capacity of health research units, following an evaluation and study, by reforming research procedures and methods (in particular, by incorporating research into daily health service management), and by mobilizing the funds needed to strengthen the structures and develop priority programs in this area. Finally, the national ethics advisory committee on research should be revitalized, and coordination capacities should be strengthened (monitoring documentation, dissemination and use of the results of health research). Program of access to quality health care and services It focuses on improving accessibility of services, and the quality of services, i.e., the capacity of the human and material resources mobilized. Demand for access to health care is constantly on the rise due to the vigorous population growth in Niger. The extension of health coverage should be reflected in increased access to quality health care and services, especially for the most vulnerable segments of the population. Emphasis will therefore be placed on five priorities: i) upgrading existing facilities (rehabilitation of health infrastructure, electrical and water supply systems, converting health units into type I integrated health centers (CSI), and construction of housing for health operators); ii) construction of new health units (integrated health centers, district hospitals, and regional and national hospital centers, among others); iii) equipping health care structures (heavy equipment, technical materials, and vehicles); iv) improving maintenance of infrastructure and equipment (installation of multipurpose maintenance workshops, further training of technicians, implementation of maintenance plans, securing maintenance funds allocated to the structures; and v) development of other strategies for access to health care (mobile units, advanced mobile strategies, integrated mobile strategies). As regards providing health structures with competent, motivated human resources, the focus is on four main levers: training; management of personnel and skills; career management; and, motivation of personnel. Training programs will be prepared for all levels, including specializations where there is the greatest need, training curriculums will be reviewed, and the system of accreditation of training colleges will be strengthened. Human resource management planning will also be developed by using computerized personnel management tools, establishing a national observatory of human resources, monitoring the assignment and redeployment of personnel according to needs, and revision of the classification of posts [cadre organique] and key post descriptions in the MSP. Health personnel hiring procedures will be improved as part of a joint action bringing together various employers (the government, local governments, other stakeholders in the sector). A review of the personnel statute and career plans will also be undertaken. Finally, new financial and nonfinancial measures will be introduced, as will provisions to guarantee regular payment of employee salaries. 168 Program for protection of mothers and children Protection of mothers and children focuses on development of reproductive health services. Five priorities have been identified: i) strengthening family planning activities (promotion of community-based distribution of contraceptives and condoms, supplying health units with condoms and contraceptives, introduction of family planning in the minimum package for health outposts, strengthening the capacity of health agents and community volunteer health workers in family planning counseling and clinical health services; ii) improvement of health services for adolescents and youth (adaptation of certain health centers to sexual health needs of youth, information, education, and communications activities for youth, and building the capacity of health operators); iii) improving health management of infants and children by strengthening the capacity of health operators and volunteer community health workers in five key fields of competence (prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PTME), integrated child disease management (PCIME), management of the expanded vaccination program (to extend vaccination coverage), exclusive maternal breastfeeding, and management of malnutrition) and promotion of these activities in a community setting; iv) improved management of the health of mothers and newborns by emphasizing refocused prenatal consultation (CPNR) for children under five years old, and furnishing contraceptives, promoting assisted childbirth by qualified personnel, and post-natal follow-up, and v) improving management of men’s health (improvement of screening capacity and management of cancer and male sexual dysfunction). Health system management program This program requires strengthened governance and leadership in the sector and better financing mechanisms. To strengthen governance and leadership, there must first be improvements in the planning process, budget programming, and monitoring and evaluation at the central and deconcentrated levels, to create conditions for effective management of the health policy. More specifically, the services should ensure commitments in the area of monitoring and evaluation (quarterly reviews of the Health Development Plan (PDS) for districts, biannual PDS reviews for regions and central departments, annual reviews at the national level). Updating the National Health Information System (SNIS) to include information needed for managing the PDS will be critical for this purpose. A second priority is strengthening procedures for management of material and financial resources, as well as strengthening capacity in this area. On a cross-cutting basis, the Health Ministry also intends to improve the quality of management by putting in place a quality insurance system that would gradually be expanded to cover all services, improved consideration of gender issues (legislation, content of strategies, curriculum of training colleges), and development of communications (national communications plan with a focus on comprehensive care center activities). 169 Development of mechanisms for financing the health sector will first require the mobilization of resources for strengthening the supply of health care services, as follows: public appeals for and mobilization of resources to pursue a program-based approach; revision of rates, after specific studies; and, adoption of measures to increase the resources of health care structures and improve their efficiency. The second priority will involve support for specific strategies to make health care more affordable for communities and vulnerable population groups, including health cooperatives, a social fund for the poorest population groups, and a fund for medical evacuation procedures in outlying communities. The principle of free health care will require a larger budget allocation. In the long run, a universal health insurance system will have to be set up for the primary purpose of guaranteeing essential health care services for the majority of the population. 3.6.2. Increased acquisition by the population of knowledge, skills, and values necessary for a better life and sustainable development a. General guidelines: With the 2013-2020 Education Policy Letter (May 2012), Niger has a new national education policy. It is part of an effort to consolidate the gains of the Ten-Year Education Development Program (PDDE) in improving access to the basic cycle 1 and its coverage. The policy confirms commitments made by the President of the Republic in his Niger Renaissance Program to make education and training his and his government’s priority. Moreover, correction of inequalities and discrimination in access, promotion of the schooling of girls, improving the quality of education, and ensuring the consistency of different education segments are the overall objectives for the entire education sector. The policy implemented under the PDES is geared to achieving eight results, by implementing six programs. 170 Programs Results Development of basic education 1. Development of basic education is expanding to a 10-year cycle of free, compulsory education, up to 16 years of age. Development of literacy and 1. The offering of functional literacy programs is increased and nonformal education diversified; 2. Nonformal education programs are developed. Development of secondary 1. Secondary education is expanded to cover the entire country education and its quality is improved. Development of higher 1. Access to and the quality of higher education are improved; education and research 2. Education programs are oriented more towards technical and scientific disciplines, in line with the needs of the economy. Development of vocational and 1. The offering of vocational and technical training programs is technical training developed. Improvement in management of 1. The institutions in the sector function efficiently and the education system effectively. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for development of basic education This includes a series of measures to develop preschool and primary education. For preschool education, priority is assigned to three actions: i) reducing the length of the cycle, from three to two years, to cover a larger number of children with the same volume of resources; ii) hiring and training community leaders and organizers; and iii) opening a program for preschool teachers in teacher training colleges (EN) to build their capacity. For basic education, the objective is to increase access to free and compulsory basic education up to16 years of age. Priority actions include: i) hiring new, qualified government teachers from amongst contractual teachers, with a view to eliminating hiring on a contract basis by 2020; ii) development of school infrastructure by replacing all classrooms under thatched roofs and building 2,500 new classrooms a year in permanent materials; iii) building and equipping all basic cycle 2 establishments with laboratories to promote teaching of the sciences and technology; and iv) optimum use of basic cycle 2 classrooms by using a rotation system. Specific measures will also be adopted to correct inequality and discrimination in access, especially for children in rural areas or children with disabilities, and to promote schooling of girls and make the school environment more attractive, in terms of health, hygiene, and cleanliness. Other activities will be geared to improving the quality of basic education. They will focus on the following, among other things: i) effectively implementing reform of the curriculum for this 171 education cycle; ii) increasing the capacity of teacher training colleges; iii) adopting and implementing a strategy to increasingly spread bilingual education (national languages and French); iv) revision of the mechanism for initial training in the EN, IFAENF, and ENS, and for continuing education courses for teachers; and v) introduction and development of Information and Communication Technology for Education (TICE) in the schools. Other measures are also contemplated to create flexible school schedules, systematically organize teacher training in several disciplines, and reform the student evaluation mechanism. Finally, creation of a specialized school for children with disabilities will make it possible to prepare these future citizens for full participation in society. Program to develop literacy and nonformal education This includes measures to strengthen literacy and training for adults. The focus is on i) improving and diversifying functional literacy education, in conjunction with the 3N Initiative; ii) diversification of the programs offered by taking into account certain specific groups (teaching mothers, students’ parents, women’s groups, etc.); iii) increasing the length of the baseline literacy program (basic literacy and consolidation) from 6 to 12 months; iv) renovating the strategies for implementing adult education and literacy programs; and v) maintaining the knowledge gained from literacy programs by building and equipping permanent education centers. In the area of nonformal education, emphasis will be placed on developing nonformal education programs for unschooled children and early child drop-outs, and on integration of graduates of nonformal education structures into trades. Program for development of middle-level education It comprises measures to improve access to and the quality of this level of education. The priorities on access are: i) gradual improvement of the coverage throughout the country by building ten general education schools per year; ii) raising the level for hiring teachers and management staff (inspectors and teaching councilors); and iii) hiring 500 teachers a year for these schools from the civil service. Construction and equipping of laboratories and installation of infrastructures for access of disabled persons are also planned. Among measures for improving quality, importance is given to: i) revision of teaching programs and supports for middle-level education; ii) strengthening the mechanism for distribution and management of textbooks; iii) revision of programs for training professors, and setting up mechanisms for initial and continuing education of teachers (using the TICE); iv) implementation of the 18-hour work week for each teacher; and v) overhaul of the evaluation system. 172 Program for development of higher education This initiative also targets simultaneous improvement in access and quality. Priorities for improving access include: i) strengthening infrastructure, equipment and personnel, including teachers, researchers, and administrators; ii) regulation of private institutions of higher education; iii) increase in the number of students in scientific and technical programs; and iv) special support for applied research, by targeting development of new and renewable energy sources and industrial processing of agricultural and livestock products. Quality improvement will rely especially on: i) developing the capacity of human resources in structures in charge of scientific and technological research; ii) continuing licence-masters--doctorate (LMD) reform to train qualified human resources; iii) reorienting the programs of the grandes écoles [universities] and their faculties to respond to the needs of the economy; and iv) supporting the publication and dissemination of the results of research as part of a national research policy. Program to develop vocational and technical education and training This program is designed to offer both targeted vocational training or technical education to a proportion of students in the basic cycle, as well short-term courses to the public outside the school system. The principal measures planned for implementation by 2020 include the following: i) expansion of options by building and equipping eight vocational and technical education centers, four vocational and technical high schools (in Agadez, Tera, Tahoua, and Zinder), and two technical high schools in Diffa and Doutchi; ii) construction and outfitting of a Community Development Training Center (CFDC) responsible for rural vocational training in every commune (a total of 267); iii) diversification and development of training courses for highly skilled technicians, apprentices, and skilled workers to meet the needs of the formal and informal economy; iv) effective implementation of curricular reform and training of trainers and supervisors for EFPT [Vocational and Technical Education and Training]; v) development of a mechanism for integration into a trade; vi) strengthening the mechanism for coordination and financing of EFPT: and vii) promotion of girls and women in technical and industrial sectors or branches. Vocational and technical training will also develop a special offering of courses in two important vocational categories: artisans and farmers. In fact, in view of the size of the artisanal and agricultural-forest-livestock sectors, it appears critical to provide for their modernization through education. Thus vocational training will make it possible to introduce new production techniques and to use more modern and efficient machinery and tools, and ultimately production processes, that will increase the productivity of these two sectors. 173 Program for improving the guidance and management of the education system This program comprises more than 20 measures, including the following ones: i) revision of Law 98-12 of June 1, 1998 on Nigerien Education System Guidelines (LOSEN); ii) creation of regional academies; iii) implementation of a school textbook policy; iv) reform of evaluation methods; v) continuing the “deconcentration� of education (non specialization); vi) implementation of a mechanism for accreditation of institutions and certification of qualifications and skills in the principal trades; vii) adoption and implementation of a national policy for schooling and training girls, and revision of the literacy and nonformal education policy; viii) implementation of a national fund for financing education and an independent system for management of EFPT centers and establishments; and ix) support for the private education and training sector. 3.6.3. Especially vulnerable population groups have better access to social protection and employment measures and services a. General guidelines: The PDES priorities for 2012-2015 are part of the guidelines listed in the National Social Welfare Policy [PNPS] adopted in August 201141; to implement it, a social welfare committee (for coordination of social welfare stakeholders) was recently set up. Aside from implementing the national social safety net program to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable population groups to repeated crises, the social welfare and employment policy under the PDES aims at achieving four results by implementing three programs. 41 Priority activities indicated under the PNPS pillars “Food and nutritional security� and “Basic social infrastructure and services� will be managed under the EN Initiative (pillar 1 of PDES) and sectoral policies responsible for basic services (health, education, water, housing, etc.). 174 Programs Results Social security 1. Consolidation of the existing social security system; 2. Social welfare extended to new population groups through cooperatives and traditional solidarity mechanisms. Work and employment 1. Job creation is encouraged by specific job support programs; 2. Job discrimination is reduced. Specific action in support 1. Job creation is encouraged by specific job support of vulnerable groups programs; 2. Vulnerable groups are better targeted and supported. b. Priority programs and activities: Social security program The first priority of this program is to consolidate gains in social security. The first step in this consolidation is to strengthen the existing system (a contributory employment-linked system) as follows: i) by strengthening the capacity of the main two existing structures—the National Social Security Fund (CNSS) and the Niger Autonomous Retirement Fund (CARENI); and ii) by decentralizing and specializing services. In addition, the central government will gradually expand social security coverage to include population groups not in the system (the informal sector, rural areas, etc.) through appropriate mechanisms. To this end, it will rely on the cooperative [mutualisation] movement already initiated by the health and labor ministries in the framework of the Strategic Plan for Development of Health Mutuals, which targets paramilitary units, government employees, and rural enterprises and communities. Finally, traditional solidarity mechanisms will be revitalized in various ways, such as by mobilizing the zakkat funds for financing social welfare activities and by strengthening other local community solidarity and mutual assistance systems. These activities will take into account ongoing regional initiatives (such as the regional framework for mutual health organizations adopted by WAEMU in 2009). They will essentially be based on civil society organizations working in this area, such as the ones that are part of the Africa Social Protection Platform (PROTECSO). The 2012-2015 Program for the Promotion of Decent Work (PPTD) covers part of the needs of this subsector. 175 Work and Employment Program This program aims at placing the creation of decent jobs at the center of the development objectives of economic and social policies, as proposed in the National Employment Policy adopted in March 2009 and in the PPTD. It has set the following priorities: i) strengthening the capacity of vulnerable groups, including women, youth, and persons with disabilities, to obtain work; ii) creation of new opportunities for decent work and income, by supporting development of income-generating activities, especially in the informal urban sector, and by supporting highly labor-intensive programs; iii) preparation and implementation of national sectoral strategies for improving working conditions and the work environment; iv) strengthening entities for social dialogue; and v) ratifying and applying international labor standards. The 2012-2015 Program for promotion of decent work covers a large part of the needs of this subsector. At the same time, the legal system against discrimination at the workplace will be strengthened and the media will be used to promote behavioral changes, with a view to improving working conditions. Program for specific activities in support of vulnerable groups Specific action in support of vulnerable groups targets children, women, youth, the elderly, and persons with disabilities or HIV/AIDS, or other chronic diseases. Under this program, special services adapted to the most vulnerable persons will be offered to guarantee their right to social welfare. For children, based on the child protection policy, the framework document on protection of children and early childhood development strategy, action will focus on: i) harmonizing laws with the Convention on the Rights of the Child and approving and implementing the Children’s Code; ii) linking registration for social transfer programs to registration of births; iii) ensuring that the transfers are accompanied by specific action to promote and protect the child, and specifically improving specialized social services and access of child victims of abuse and their families to these specialized social services; iv) studying the feasibility of a child allowance system in Niger; and v) strengthening actions to mobilize and prevent violence against children in communities (including child marriages, the worst forms of child labor, female genital mutilation, etc.). This will also entail a strengthening of the capacity of social workers, as well as workers in related sectors, to manage child victims and at risk children. For youth, it is essential to support efforts and strategies to facilitate access to employment and productive work, to strengthen disease prevention and health protection measures, and to give priority to the national corps of volunteers. 176 For women, the main concern is to support ongoing and planned activities developed under the women’s policy and the gender policy, especially by strengthening activities in favor of the most vulnerable women. For the elderly, the main priority will be strengthening the provision for free health care for elderly and impoverished persons through the Social Fund planned in the health sector. A feasibility study will be initiated to support consideration being given to introduction of a non- contributory old age pension system. For persons with disabilities, priorities are given to the following: i) support for activities of associations working to help persons with disabilities, and a strengthening of rehabilitation programs at community level; and ii) reinforcing implementation of the International Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, and effective implementation of ordinance 93/012 of March 2, 1993, amended and supplemented by ordinance 2010-028 of May 20, 2010 on minimum rules for the social development and welfare of persons with disabilities. 3.6.4. Gender inequality and inequity are reduced a. General guidelines: The issue of equal opportunities and abilities between men and women is at the center of any development process. It is a challenge both to society (to reduce inequalities and factors responsible for exclusion), to democracy (equal rights and dignity of men and women), and to the economy (elimination of obstacles to the economic contribution of men and women, and promotion of inclusive growth). The PDES gives a central role to this issue in its priority action plan, on the basis of the National Gender Policy adopted in July 2008, and the ten-year plan to implement this policy, covering the 2009-2018 period. The gender policy under the PDES will achieve six results by implementing two programs. Programs Results Promotion of rights for 1. Dissemination and implementation of documents gender equity and supporting gender equity and equality (CEDAW, UDHR, CRC, protection of women etc.) 2. Reduction in gender-based violence; 3. Promotion and strengthening of women leaders. Promotion of economic 1. Promotion of quality training of women; opportunities for women 2. Promotion of gender-sensitive budgeting; 3. Promotion of the economic independence of women. 177 b. Priority programs and activities: Program on gender equity rights and protection of women This program groups together all of the activities to promote inclusion of a gender perspective in national laws as well as activities related to the critical issue of violence against women. On implementing rights to gender equity and equality, the aim is to create a legal and social environment favorable to the exercise of women’s rights based on equitable management of power in relationships between men and women. The first component has to do with improving the legal framework itself. Priorities are given to the following: i) continuing efforts to bring national laws in line with Niger’s regional and international commitments; and ii) adopting laws formalizing equitable representation of women in positions of responsibility in public institutions and agencies, as well as in the private sector, including revision of the quota law. The second component has to do with application of the legal framework and control of its effective implementation. Four priorities will be addressed: i) awareness-raising and lobbying of parliamentarians, political parties, and community leaders; ii) training of stakeholders in the judicial system on gender equity and equality rights (including training of para-legal personnel in ANDDH); iii) dissemination to the public of laws to promote human rights and gender equality; and iv) promotion of citizen control of government action in this area. These activities will require development of a communication plan and institutionalization of a partnership with religious and traditional associations. Promotion of literacy will be a key upstream measure to ensure widespread dissemination and appropriation of these documents. These efforts will promote the equitable status and social position of women and men within the family and the community and strengthen the effective exercise of the rights of women and girls. As for efforts to combat gender-based violence, three key activities are identified: i) mobilization of communities around this issue by developing communication to change behavior; ii) joint projects responding to the immediate needs of female victims of gender-based violence (women’s shelters and centers, legal information, etc.); and iii) improving knowledge on the evolution of different forms of violence against women. Program for promotion of economic opportunities for women This program is based on two measures: vocational or occupational training; and specific initiatives to support income-generating activities for women. For vocational training, the focus is on two priorities: i) fighting discrimination observed in occupational training; and ii) revitalizing women’s training and promotion centers. 178 Economic promotion of women will be based on initiatives to strengthen the economic independence of women through opportunities and a stronger position in the economy of the household and in the market economy. The program will endeavor to reduce inequalities in access to services and economic opportunities by targeting four priority areas: i) access to microcredits; ii) access to property and participation in land and property commissions; iii) access to information and communications technologies; and iv) reducing household chores by promoting adequate equipment, such as grain mills, hulling or husking machines, etc. Access to microcredits will be accompanied by ICT initiatives, and vocational, and financial and account management training, to make it easier for potential beneficiaries, most of whom are illiterate, to make efficient use of the income at their disposal to effectively develop income-generating activities. To supplement these measures, gender mainstreaming will lead to an important interministerial project regarding several key questions of inequality between men and women, which will be resolved in specific sectoral programs, especially in the area of school disparities. In the program-budget of the ministry responsible for gender equity, a support program will group together cross-cutting activities carried out by this department to strengthen the institutional framework and monitoring and evaluation mechanisms for implementing the National Gender Policy (PNG). This program will include improvements to the existing statistical information system and a strengthening of specific expertise, in order to produce and analyze data broken down by sex. The government’s determination to support the promotion of gender equity as a cross-cutting issue will be based largely on the decision to promote gender-based budgeting by using budget programming tools (MTEF) that could to some extent facilitate efforts to ensure that the need for implementing a national gender policy is in line with allocations of resources to programs on the subject. 3.6.5. Improved standard of living for urban and rural populations a. General guidelines The major challenges to improving the living environment in terms of town planning, the habitat, and housing are as follows: i) updating the urban development strategy in a context of decentralization and making it work effectively by putting the appropriate tools in place, and especially a framework for action and a financing mechanism; and ii) substantially improving coverage of needs for decent housing and habitat through a policy promoting access to decent housing for all and to public or subsidized housing for households in the lower income quintile in cities. Moreover, better management of urban space with adequately prepared housing development plans, as well as improvement of habitat in rural areas, is also needed. To meet these challenges, the main objective of the PDES in this area is to make significant improvements to the living environment of the population, in order to guarantee a better life 179 and quality health. More specifically, the objectives to be achieved will be implemented through the following programs: i) improvement in urban development; ii) improvement in the coverage of decent housing; iii) improvement in sanitation and a cleaner environment; and iv) improved coverage of the needs for public housing. Implementation of these programs will make it possible to achieve the 18 results listed below. Programs Results Improvement of urban 1. Urban centers are provided with urban planning and development management tools; 2. Synergy is established among the stakeholders; 3. A financing mechanism for urban areas is set up; 4. Town centers are renovated; 5. Districts with inadequate facilities are rehabilitated. Improvement in coverage of 1. The regulatory and institutional framework for housing decent housing is operational; 2. Social housing financing mechanisms are set up; 3. Conditions for purchasing property are facilitated; 4. Cleaned up, serviced parcels are available; 5. Public housing is built; 6. Rural housing is improved. Improvement of sanitation 1. Urban sanitation infrastructure is installed; and the living environment 2. Solid and liquid waste is treated; 3. The legal and institutional frameworks in the area of hygiene and sanitation are revised and disseminated; 4. The population has adopted satisfactory hygiene and sanitation practices; 5. Financing of the subsector is ensured. Improvement of the 1. The regulatory and institutional framework for regulatory framework and construction is operational; financing of construction 2. Substantial financing of construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation is ensured; 3. The construction industry is developed and expanded. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improving urban development It will be implemented by the priority actions linked to the development of SIG [Geographical Information System] applications, preparation of urban planning tools, development of exchange initiatives (urban forum), education, awareness-raising, and coordination among stakeholders, preparation of technical and socio-economic studies for renovation of urban centers, and setting 180 up the financing needed to effectively implement the measures envisaged. It will also be important upstream to ensure that the regulatory and institutional framework for urban planning and development are completed and that technical, logistical, and human capacities are strengthened on an ongoing basis to accomplish the work involved. “Urban centers are provided with urban planning and management tools.� This action will rely primarily on preparing urban management instruments and mechanisms such as urban planning tools and SIG applications. It will also include work to complete the regulatory and institutional framework for urban development and updating action plans for the National Urban Development Strategy (SNDU). “Synergy is established among the stakeholders,� by putting in place a framework for intervention in urban areas. This will be accomplished by activities to organize an urban forum, education and awareness-raising activities and meetings of the various stakeholders to discuss the best guidelines for urban development and planning and how to implement them. “Renovation of urban centers� will rely primarily on technical and socioeconomic studies on the feasibility of activities needed to renovate urban centers, setting up the required financing, and implementing the measures recommended in studies carried out. To guarantee that these objectives are achieved, a strategy for mobilizing resources to finance the prospective program for renovation of urban centers must be developed. This program will be largely implemented by the “Niamey Nyala� project, which reflects the aspirations expressed in the Renaissance Program to make Niamey a major international city, and an attractive city that is nice to live in: “Pretty Niamey,� “Niamey Nyala.� This project will reduce the gap separating Niamey from other capitals in the subregion in terms of urban development, but its main focus is on urban renewal and completion of a development strategy to reunite and rebalance the city, make it more attractive and a more pleasant place to live, increase its accessibility to multimodal transportation, and finally to promote its influence as a political and cultural capital and its role as a regional economic pole. The “Niamey Nyala� program is also designed to make the capital a controlled city adapted to its population growth. This vast project also encompasses other major urban centers in the country. Program for improving the coverage of decent housing This program covers activities related to setting up a regulatory and institutional framework, strengthening technical, logistical, and human capacities, and awareness raising, to improve the coverage of decent housing. In addition, a financial plan for the social habitat will be prepared, plots of land will be developed and made viable, and processes to build public housing, rehabilitate under-equipped districts, and improve the rural habitat will be put into operation. 181 “The regulatory and institutional framework of the national habitat policy is operational.� This action will involve completing the institutional and regulatory framework to put the national habitat policy into operation and strengthening technical, logistical, and human capacities, as well as promoting initiatives to raise the awareness of stakeholders and the population and to disseminate legal documents and instruments to accompany the national habitat policy. “Property acquisition is ensured and cleaned up parcels are available.� These results will be achieved on the basis of appropriate identification of sites and their expropriation, development, and servicing. Moreover, the security of land acquisition will make it possible to develop low- cost or luxury housing, through collateralized investments. “Public or social housing is built.� This result will rely on a process ranging from feasibility studies to assignment of housing, and including on-site construction, in accordance with a time schedule drawn up for public housing to be built. “Under-serviced districts are rehabilitated.� This will be accomplished by implementing a process coordinated around a conceptual phase (identification, guidance/awareness-raising, feasibility studies) and an operational phase, including resettlement, restructuring, construction, and land regularization work. “The rural habitat is improved.� This will also have a conceptual phase (identification, guidance/awareness-raising, feasibility studies), and an operational phase, primarily involving support for self-construction. Program for improving sanitation of the living environment This program groups together the activities involved in installing sanitation infrastructure, ensuring the responsibility of stakeholders and beneficiaries, treating solid waste, and adapting and disseminating the legal and institutional frameworks in the areas of hygiene and sanitation. Priority is also given to raising the financing required to develop the subsector. “Urban sanitation infrastructure is installed.� This will involve building the infrastructure for disposal and treatment of waste water in an urban environment. As for efforts to ensure that stakeholders and beneficiaries are responsible, the institutional and technical capacity of private stakeholders will be strengthened by promotion of hygiene and sanitation, and the precollection and collection, transport, and elimination of waste and garbage will be ensured. The installation and equipping of recovery and recycling units and recovery of waste will also be encouraged. 182 Legal and institutional frameworks pertaining to hygiene and sanitation will be adapted and made generally accessible, by improving, putting into general use, and implementing the legal instruments on the subject. To ensure that the people adopt satisfactory hygienic and sanitary practices, a community-based campaign to raise awareness of best practices is planned to cover the entire country. Program to improve the regulatory and financing framework for construction It will be based on action to complete the regulatory framework for construction and development of the construction industry in Niger. Appropriate financing mechanisms will be set up to ensure the sustainability of these activities. “The legal, regulatory, and institutional framework for construction will be made operational.� This will be accomplished by completion of the laws and regulations, and by setting up the institutional mechanism and making it known to the general public. Achievement of the results will depend on efforts to raise awareness and to make these texts generally accessible, as well as on strengthening of technical, logistical, and human capacities. “The considerable financing needed for construction, maintenance, and rehabilitation will be provided� by putting an appropriate financing mechanism in place, and specifically by drawing up a financing plan. “The construction industry will be developed and expanded.� This will be accomplished through efforts to promote in-depth research on construction materials adapted to the geography and climate of Niger for use in construction, and also through continuous efforts to develop extension initiatives, by sensitizing and educating stakeholders, in the framework of a public- private partnership. 3.6.6. Increasing equitable access of the population to drinking water and sanitation facilities a. General guidelines: For this sector, the PDES will follow the strategic guidelines defined in the presidential program and reflected in the 2011-2015 National Drinking Water Supply and Sanitation Program adopted in June 2011. Ambitious quantitative objectives were identified for this sector, which has a considerable impact on the living conditions of the population and the health status of the country. Achieving them should make it possible to accelerate progress towards achieving the MDGs in 2015. 183 The sectoral policy here will be based on four key principles: i) ensuring steady growth in access to drinking water and to basic sanitation infrastructure throughout the country; ii) reducing disparities in terms of access to drinking water and sanitation; iii) strengthening the sustainability of the drinking water supply both in the urban environment (financial equilibrium) and in rural areas (renewal of resources, rehabilitation, support and advisory services to the Public Water Service); and iv) making beneficiaries responsible for implementing the cost recovery policy related to the water supply, and for promoting hygiene and private investment for individualized sanitation facilities. The drinking water and sanitation policy under the PDES will aim to produce eight results, by implementing three programs. Programs Results 1. Improved access to drinking water in rural areas; 2. Improved access to drinking water in urban areas in 40 new Supplying the centers; population with 3. The mechanism for management of hydraulic works is in place drinking water and working; 4. Legal and institutional frameworks for water management are in place and in general use. Basic sanitation 1. Access of people to family latrines is increased; 2. Disparities among the regions are reduced; 3. Facilities for treating sludge are strengthened. Integrated water 1. Improvement in the level of knowledge, management, and resource protection of water resources; management 2. Hydrological development plans are drawn up. b. Priority programs and activities: Program for supplying the population with drinking water There are four components: i) investment in rural water systems; ii) investment in urban water systems; iii) management of hydraulic works; and iv) legal and institutional frameworks. For rural water systems, and based on the frame of reference on water works produced in 2009 by the ministry in charge of water, which identified 5,101 priority localities, over 14,000 equivalent modern water points will be installed. More than 90 percent will be in the regions of Dosso, Maradi, Tahoua, Tillabery, and Zinder. Construction will be completed by rehabilitation investments, which should affect 8,500 modern water points. Existing facilities to be renovated will cover all abandoned facilities or ones that have become unproductive due to the effect of climate change. For villages with more than 2,000 inhabitants, mini-conveyances of drinking water will be put in place with a view to covering all localities by 2015. Multi-village and intercommunal water conveyance systems will also be promoted. 184 As for investments, priority will be given to strengthening the equipment maintenance system to substantially reduce the breakdown rate. Support and advisory services for communes will also be developed, in order to make the Public Water Service operational on the basis of the guide of available services. As for urban water systems, investments to be implemented were specified in the Master Plan for the Urban Water System, and taken up again in the National Water Supply and Sanitation Program. They will be used to upgrade 52 existing centers, and to build 40 new urban centers and incorporate them into the consolidated perimeter. With regard to the mechanism for management of hydraulic works, it is a matter of putting it in place and making it operational, especially by relying on substantial involvement of grass-roots stakeholders in managing hydraulic works, which will require providing the stakeholders with the necessary scientific and technical materials and equipment. Moreover, efforts will be made to improve legal and institutional texts on supplying drinking water to the population, and to make them generally accessible. Basic Sanitation Program It is aimed at increasing access by: i) increasing the number of improved family latrines, from 100,000 in 2010 to 293,000 in 2015; ii) promoting self-construction of simple or improved family latrines; and iii) construction of public toilets and school latrines. Besides the overall quantitative objective defined in the investment program for the subsector, public financing will be directed to reducing disparities among the regions. Moreover, to respond to the demand for durable equipment, strategic plans for sanitation in urban centers (management of excreta and fecal sludge) will be prepared and the study for management of fecal sludge for the city of Niamey will be updated in the form of a pilot project to be launched. Finally, an important component of the sectoral policy involves making the local people responsible. This will be accomplished by putting on demonstrations and organizing programs to raise the awareness of households (targeting over 80 percent of the communes), and by promoting a behavioral change in the area of sanitation in rural communities. Program for Integrated Management of Water Resources (GIRE) Activities will primarily involve strengthening and expanding piezometric and hydrometric networks, and water quality control mechanisms. An integrated water information system will also be put into operation, especially by improving the IRH/SIGNER/NT base. 185 3.6.7. Professional and recreational sports a. General guidelines: The challenges here are to promote the effective practice of sports on an individual and professional level, to help improve and preserve the health of the people, and to improve the image and external visibility of Niger. Thus, the objective will be to help reduce illnesses related to a sedentary life and to develop professional sports. The policy implemented under the PDES targets four results to be achieved by implementing two programs. Programs Results Improving conditions for 1. Professionalization of athletes; practicing sports, on an 2. Improving sports infrastructure and equipment. individual basis and professionally Strengthening the institutional 1. Improvement of the intuitional framework; framework and sports financing 2. Sports financing mechanisms are diversified. mechanisms b. Priority programs and activities: Program for improving conditions for practicing sports individually and professionally This program encompasses all activities related to establishing and strengthening sports infrastructure and equipment and the professionalization of athletes. Action to achieve the professionalization of athletes will rely on development of a national program for assessing talent, creating training centers, and training leaders and technical staff, while taking into account the requirements for practicing the sport on a professional level, creating optimum conditions for medical monitoring of athletes, and creating a strategic partnership with professional training centers abroad. The infrastructure and equipment for practicing sports wi e improved. Action will focus on rehabilitating and creating infrastructure and equipment to promote the practice of sports by all. Based on available resources, a real national policy will be promoted to identify the potential for promotion of sports (including soccer, basketball, traditional wrestling, etc.), and to provide federations with the resources needed to facilitate implementation of the annual action plans. Campaigns to raise awareness and motivate people to practice sports could be conducted in schools, which are an excellent place to discover talented athletes. This will, however, require installation of infrastructure and equipment in urban, rural, and school environments, to offer 186 suitable facilities for practicing sports. More specifically, arenas, fields, and space for games will have to be included in urban development plans, in the wake of the “Niamey Nyala� project. Program to strengthen the institutional framework and sports financing mechanisms ll b This program will be carried out on the basis of two priority activities to improve the institutional framework for sports promotion and to diversify sports financing mechanisms. The first activity involves strengthening the institutional framework by initiating in the very short term a process for formulating a national sports policy, publishing laws and regulations, and creating structures responsible for sports management throughout the country. 3.6.8. Improved competitiveness of cultural enterprises a. General guidelines: The richness and diversity of the cultural heritage are important tools for the development of a country. In Niger, the challenge consists in promoting the national cultural identity as a way of helping to improve the quality of life. This requires the creation of conditions conducive to making the national culture a source of wealth and a powerful means of development, while protecting the ambassadors of Nigerien culture. The objectives for meeting these challenges will be to improve the living conditions of cultural stakeholders and to develop the cultural heritage. The policy implemented under the PDES is designed to obtain six results by implementing two programs: Programs Results Improvement of the conditions 1. The people participate more in cultural activities; for cultural stakeholders to 2. Increase in artistic and cultural infrastructure and exercise their profession facilities; 3. Professionalization of cultural stakeholders; 4. The institutional and legal framework is strengthened. Development of the cultural 1. Preservation and promotion of the cultural heritage; heritage 2. Ensuring the production, distribution, and dissemination of cultural goods and services. 187 b. Priority programs and activities: Program to improve the living conditions of cultural stakeholders This program encompasses all of the activities related to increasing the participation of the people in cultural life, increasing artistic and cultural infrastructure and facilities, ensuring the professionalization of cultural stakeholders, and strengthening the institutional and legal framework. Activities for enhancing the participation of the people in cultural life will be based primarily on promoting initiatives to reduce socio-cultural obstacles, sensitizing youth to the importance of embracing traditional values, and improving the perception of the economic dimension of arts and culture. Artistic and cultural infrastructure and facilities will be improved in quality and quantity by rehabilitating existing facilities, improving the geographical coverage of infrastructure and facilities, and managing the infrastructure in question. Cultural stakeholders will be professionalized by implementing training and support programs, and by creating, producing, and disseminating artistic and cultural works. Cultural businesses will also have to be structured and cultural and artistic education promoted. The institutional and legal framework will be strengthened by improving the legislative and regulatory framework and by making existing laws and regulations accessible. Program for promoting the cultural heritage Development of the cultural heritage will be achieved mainly by giving priority to promoting and preserving the cultural heritage, and to ensuring the production, distribution, and dissemination of cultural goods and services. The first result, involving promotion and preservation of the cultural heritage, will be achieved, inter alia, by preparing a cultural heritage charter, reducing the vulnerability of cultural sites and monuments, protecting the intangible cultural heritage, promoting the national languages, revitalizing cultural festivals and popular traditions and arts, and by supporting research on the cultural heritage. The second result, production, distribution, and dissemination of cultural goods and services, will be achieved by training of and support for those engaged in the promotion of culture, and support for the creation of distribution and dissemination networks. 188 3.6.9. Youth are better protected against social ills and diseases a. General guidelines: Promotion of youth is a major challenge in the coming years, since they account for nearly one-third of the Nigerien population. Government action will follow the guidelines defined by the National Youth Policy (PNJ) and by its strategic sectoral plan (2011-2015 PSS/PNI), adopted in 2011. The objective will be to promote the insertion of youth in social and cultural life and in economic activities, by developing education programs to that end and by supporting initiatives for socio-economic integration. The policy implemented under the PDES is designed to achieve four results by implementing two programs. Programs Results 1. Promotion of the sexual and reproductive health of Protection of youth youth; 2. Strengthening prevention of juvenile delinquency. 1. Improved management and guidance of the Management of the youth institutional and legal framework of the sector; sector 2. Setting up mechanisms for financing the PNJ Sectoral Strategic Plan. b. Priority programs and activities: Youth protection program This program consists of two essential components: i) promotion of the sexual and reproductive health of youth and adolescents, including prevention of STI/HIV/AIDS; and ii) prevention of juvenile delinquency. For the first component, efforts will be made to reduce pro-birth behavior by raising the awareness of youth on two key points: the negative consequences of early, repeated pregnancies, and the need to increase prenatal and postnatal consultations provided by the reproductive health services. Large-scale awareness-raising campaigns will also be undertaken with regard to the consequences of early marriage, and the promotion of sexual and reproductive health rights of girls and respect for their dignity in marriage. To reduce the vulnerability of youth to STI/HIV/AIDS, two approaches will be used: support for sex education in the family and youth groups (education in pairs strategy); and, improvement of the accessibility of centers for discussion and counseling for youth by youth. 189 The struggle against juvenile delinquency is based on an intersectoral approach. Priority activities involve: i) the organization of annual awareness-raising and information campaigns on the importance of responsible parenting and management of adolescents; ii) adoption of programs to improve the quality of extracurricular supervision; and iii) creation of centers specializing in youth management in the main towns of the regions, to mitigate the many and varied problems of reintegration into society. Program for management of the youth sector This program has two components. The first component has to do with improving management and guidance of the youth sector. It will serve as the critical foundation needed to ensure effective implementation of the National Youth Policy. Priority activities include: i) setting up PSS/PNJ management and steering units; ii) strengthening the material and logistic capacity of youth associations and organizations (200 organizations targeted); iii) revising the legal framework of youth associations; and iv) organizing courses on management of socio-educational infrastructure and on the key issues of youth (environmental protection, STI/HIV/AIDS, prevention of malaria). Plans for creating socio-educational infrastructures (175 youth clubs targeted) and for hiring 370 administrators and leaders will be adjusted on the basis of available resources. The second component has to do with financing mechanisms. In the short run, the first step will be to improve the rate of use of funds allocated to the youth sector, to ensure an increase in the budget contributions of the government and its development partners to youth, and to seek increased and better-targeted participation on the part of civil society and the private sector. To ensure permanent sectoral financing, there are also plans to create a youth development fund and to establish and put into operation an institution to finance youth projects. The fund will receive a government contribution (at least 1 percent of government revenue) and private sector funds (0.5 percent of the profits of mining and oil companies and of major public works and construction projects). 190 CHAPTER 4. METHODS FOR IMPLEMENTING THE PDES 4.1. COST OF THE PDES The costs of the PDES were identified according to a specific ranking of the programs to be implemented in each of the sectors. An order of priority was established within each sector on the basis of the criteria of relevance and feasibility, namely technical and financial feasibility. The estimated cost of the entire Plan, broken down by pillars and by years, and the sectoral distribution of financing needs are shown in the following table: Table 19. Summary of financing needs for the entire PDES (in millions of CFAF) Pillar 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total % Pillar 1. Credibility and effectiveness of public 31,793 49,820 45,873 96,792 214,279 3.4% institutions Pillar 2. Conditions for sustainable, balanced, and 175,848 174,899 203,544 198,014 752,306 11.9% inclusive development Pillar 3. Food security and sustainable agricultural 246,579 246,579 246,579 246,579 986,315 15.6% development Pillar 4. A competitive and diversified economy for 249,973 564,191 755,457 670,596 2,240,226 35.5% inclusive and balanced growth Pillar 5. Promotion of social development 464,461 506,966 552,793 601,128 2,125,348 33.6% Total cost 1,168,654 1,542,455 1,804,256 1,803,109 6,318,474 100.0% 191 Figure 5. Graphic distribution of PDES financing requirements, by pillar (as a percentage) Distribution of PDES Costs by Pillar ____ Pillar 1 ____ Pillar 2 ____ Pillar 3 ____ Pillar 4 ____ Pillar 5 192 Table 20. Sectoral distribution of the total financing needs of the PDES (in millions of CFAF) PDES Pillars Sectors 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total Pillar 1: Improving Public financial management 5,430 5,330 5,291 5,288 21,340 the credibility and Management of the economy 1,540 2,350 2,335 2,085 8,310 effectiveness of public Consolidation of constitutional institutions institutions -- 49 424 41,224 41,697 Justice and human rights 19,115 21,533 17,265 17,637 75,550 Local governance 5,463 5,463 5,463 5,463 21,852 Governance of the central administration 245 15,095 15,095 15,095 45,530 Total: Pillar 1 33,793 49,820 45,873 86,792 214,279 Pillar 2: Creating Security and defense 74,474 98,659 102,572 117,761 393,466 conditions for Population 2,205 1,484 1282 1,279 6,250 sustainable, balanced, Environment and climate change 98,814 74,406 99,473 78,974 351,667 and inclusive growth Regional development 356 350 217 -- 923 Total: Pillar 2 175,848 174,899 203,544 198,014 752,306 Pillar 3: Food security and sustainable agricultural 246,579 246,579 246,579 246,579 986,315 development Total: Pillar 3 246,579 246,579 246,579 246,579 986,315 Pillar 4. A Business climate -- 3,600 3,550 3,550 10,700 competitive and Economic and organizational diversified economy infrastructure 218,149 482,504 679,012 602,096 1,981,761 for accelerated and Productive sectors excluding inclusive growth agriculture 30,543 76,806 71,624 63,669 242,641 Economic integration of youth 1,281 1,281 1,281 1,281 5,124 Total: Pillar 4 249,973 564,191 755,467 670,596 2,240,226 Health 139,404 144,645 145,061 158,467 589,577 Pillar 5: Promotion of Education 164,648 196,633 233,761 273,812 868,854 social development Social welfare 502 10,140 15,360 14,545 40,547 Gender inequality and inequity 3,055 3,654 3,763 3,028 13,500 Living environment 34,088 34,088 34,088 34,088 136,352 Water and sanitation 121,222 110,704 113,828 112,960 458,714 Sports and culture 185 5,800 3,675 3,515 13,175 Social activities of [text missing] 1,356 1,302 1,257 712 4,629 Total: Pillar 5 464,461 506,966 552,793 601,128 2,125,348 SUM TOTAL 1,168,654 1,542,455 1,804,256 1,803,109 6,318,474 193 A Priority Action Plan (PAP) has been prepared to ensure that the activities deemed to be priorities in each sector are consistent with the priorities announced in the Renaissance Program and with prospects for financing these priority activities. The PAP was based on the following: i) ranking of activities within each sector; ii) the financing capacities, in accordance with the baseline macroeconomic scenario; iii) the prospect of raising the investment absorption rate to 60 percent; and iv) an objective assessment of the potential of mobilizing internal and external resources. This Action Plan reflects the government’s priorities for implementing its development policy during the Plan. For activities outside the PAP (but included in the PDES), they should be implemented according to the economic situation and the national policy adopted. The Public-Private Partnership (PPP) will be the preferred tool for mobilizing resources for financing promotion of focal points of growth and development of the rural sector, mining, energy and transportation infrastructure, tourism, artisanal activities, industry, and SME/SMI. Other innovative forms of financing, such as Treasury bond or note issues on the regional financial market, will also be used. 4.2. FINANCING OF THE PDES To implement the Priority Action Program, the government will take into account the variability of financing depending on the internal and external environment. Mobilization of domestic and external resources will be adapted to reflect the economic situation during the period of the Plan. Thus, not only are financing gaps different from one scenario to another, but also mobilization conditions will vary with changes in the economic situation. Budgets and financing gaps based on the three scenarios, in comparison with IMF financing, are presented in the following two tables. 194 Table 21. Capital expenditure budgets by scenario and the budget execution rate (TEB), in billions of CFAF Scenarios Indicators Years 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total High growth scenario Capital expenditures 360.8 788.5 1,026.4 1,201.6 3,377.3 Corresponding budget 555.1 1,213.1 1,579.1 1,848.6 5,195.9 appropriations (TEB: 65%) Corresponding budget 601.3 1,314.2 1,710.7 2,002.7 5,628.8 appropriations (TEB 60%) Baseline Capital expenditures 357.4 770.1 991.3 1,134.2 3,253.0 Scenario Corresponding budget 595.7 1,283.5 1,652.2 1,890.3 5,421.7 appropriations (TEB: 60%) Capital expenditures 350.8 747.9 946.7 1,068.0 3,113.4 Low growth Corresponding budget 584.7 1,246.5 1,577.8 1,780.0 5,195.0 Scenario appropriations (TEB: 60%) Corresponding budget 637.8 1,359.8 1,721.3 1,941.8 5,660.7 appropriations (TEB: 55%) Table 22. Macroeconomic framework financing requirements (in billions of CFAF) Indicators Years 2012 2013 2014 2015 Total High growth Overall deficit -180.4 -620.1 -831.8 -957.6 scenario IMF targeted financing 55.0 467.1 641.5 707.2 1,870.8 Financing gap 130.4 153.0 190.3 250.4 724.1 Baseline Overall deficit -180.6 -613.0 -789.0 -884.0 scenario IMF targeted financing 55.0 467.1 641.5 707.2 1,870.8 Financing gap 130.6 155.7 155.3 176.8 618.4 Low growth Overall deficit -169.7 -589.0 -764.6 -864.3 scenario IMF targeted financing 55.0 467.1 641.5 707.2 1,870.8 Financing gap 114.7 121.9 123.1 157.1 516.8 195 4.3. RISK ANALYSIS A number of risks could be encountered in implementing the PDES, and they could hamper achievement of the anticipated results, especially inclusive growth and an improvement in the level of social development. The ambition of the PDES is to reconcile growth with sustainable development in the context of globalization. Efforts to achieve this goal could run up against obstacles that would reduce their effectiveness. A positive, proactive, and innovative approach is therefore required. All stakeholders should be mobilized to reduce major risks that could be an impediment to making this ambition a reality. Risks linked to weak support by stakeholders The PDES should spark the support of all stakeholders participating in the development process in Niger. The chances for the successful implementation of this Plan are linked to the capacity and the willingness of all stakeholders to act in a coordinated and cooperative way at all levels and in all sectors of society. To encourage this coordination and interaction, an institutional strategic planning mechanism will be set up. The smooth functioning of this mechanism will depend on the degree to which it is appropriated by every stakeholder and on respect for the different commitments. Ownership and management of the mechanism, and the quality and effectiveness of governance are risks that could hinder coordination of strategic actions and implementation of the PDES. These risks can be reduced or even eliminated by the following measures:  Effective leadership of the institutional strategic planning mechanism by organizing periodic meetings of the different entities, to ensure the necessary support of stakeholders and their respect for the different commitments. The administrative order creating the entities of the mechanism will specify the frequency of meetings and roles.  The Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development will establish a surveillance mechanism that will be able to identify in an early stage any malfunctions that could result in inadequate coordination among the stakeholders concerned in time to take corrective steps. Risk of natural disasters Risk of droughts and floods: Recurrent droughts are a major risk in Niger and jeopardize the production capacity and food security of the population, especially vulnerable segments. Moreover, frequent floods are a considerable risk for crop areas and habitats. The precariousness of households as a result of these two types of disasters has led the government to focus public action on timely, humanitarian activities, rather than on more structured 196 measures. These disasters are therefore phenomena that could jeopardize efforts to achieve the results anticipated under the PDES. Risk of acridians (Acrididae): Niger has recurrent invasions of acridians, and especially desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria); their impact on crops has often caused food crises. In fact, during invasion periods, swarms of locusts can fly or be transported by the wind over great distances and destroy crops hundreds of kilometers from their place of origin. In Niger, increased cooperation with the Maghreb countries and the Desert Locust Information Service of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) should ensure satisfactory control over the situation and make it possible to develop reliable forecasts on the dynamics of locust populations and better plan surveillance and control operations. Moreover, there is a need for permanent support for efforts to search out and eradicate acridians in general. Preventive action related to surveillance of reproduction zones, and location and distribution of the initial populations of acridians has been effective up to now and has made it possible to successfully control acridian invasions by using biological pesticides. Risks linked to animal diseases: Nigerien livestock is prey to health insecurity during pasture crises, especially telluric illnesses such as vitamin deficiencies, and sometimes epizootic disease outbreaks. This risk could be controlled by strengthening the national epidemiological surveillance mechanism and by strengthening the intervention capacity of grass roots line units and technical services. Vaccination is still one of the most important ways to reduce the risk of cattle diseases. The government will concentrate its efforts on preventive vaccination campaigns against the worst threats. All activities to mitigate natural disasters are included under Pillar 3 of the PDES. Risks linked to the international and regional economic situation Niger has an economy that is open to the rest of the world, and Nigerien exports and imports of products essential to its development are dependent on it. Fluctuations in prices of imported energy products or a downward trend in export prices have a negative impact on its economic growth. Moreover, international food, energy, financial, and economic crises have weakened its economy, by exerting inflationary pressure on certain products. These disturbances are major risks that could jeopardize strategic decisions and hinder implementation of PDES programs. Finally, there is the risk that recent instability in the subregion will spill over into Niger. 197 Measures to deal with these risks linked to the international situation call for the creation of a watchdog office or “observatory� within the National Strategic Planning Commission, to monitor the economic situation. This would make it possible to follow disturbances that could affect strategic choices and impede implementation of PDES programs, and to adopt corrective measures for these programs. Sociopolitical risks Even though the rule of law, democracy and peace have been restored in the country, the legacy of several decades of political and institutional instability under the 7th Republic naturally leads the government to assume that at any time it might be required to take steps to preserve this newfound stability, to enable the country to pursue its path to economic and social progress without setbacks. Risk management will require the Office of the Prime Minister to develop a proactive approach to managing the mechanism for political dialogue (the National Commission for Political Dialogue – CNDP) and social dialogue (the National Commission for Social Dialogue (CNDS), with a view to creating a relaxed atmosphere in political circles, labor unions, and other civil society organizations, and to consolidating political and institutional stability and preserving social peace. A meaningful sociopolitical monitoring strategy, with a pilot control panel, will be designed and put into operation. Certain mitigating factors are already built into the programs under Pillar 2 on improving the credibility and effectiveness of public institutions. Risks linked to implementation The weak capacity to absorb financial resources, whether or not justified by burdensome disbursement procedures and mechanisms and management malfunctions, constitutes a major risk to the efficiency and effectiveness of public spending. To prevent this type of risks, the reforms identified in PEMFAR will be implemented without delay, and rigorous measures should be adopted in the area of program and project management, and especially with regard to performance-based contracts between project heads and the government. The weak capacity of local governments and their organs to be active participants in the process of implementing the PDES could also have a negative impact on the quality of the participation of local people and the quality of the action taken, and limit their efficiency. It is therefore crucial to strengthen the capacity of elected officials. Corruption and a culture of official lawlessness, and the lack of bold measures to curb them, could constitute severe handicaps to good governance. 198 The following activities could significantly reduce these risks:  Strengthening the capacity of stakeholders in the central and decentralized administration and local governments to implement without delay the reforms identified in PEMFAR;  Institutionalizing results- and performance-based management for projects and programs, especially by signing performance contracts between project heads and the government;  Strengthening the capacity of the High Authority to Fight Corruption and Similar Infractions (HALCIA), by giving it the resources and authority required for its functions;  Creating a Permanent Secretariat for implementing PDES, under the authority of the Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development;  Creating in the Planning Ministry a flexible mechanism for: i) financing studies at all stages of financing of these investments, with a view to accelerating and facilitating their implementation; and ii) implementing specific structures to accelerate implementation of these investments;  Strengthening planning capacity by implementing a plan to hire staff for the Planning Ministry to support public policy formulation, management of government investments, management of the economy, and management of local development;  Coordination under a single authority (Ministry of Planning) of the structures in charge of planning, economic analysis, forecasting, and collection of data, especially INS, as an instrument for monitoring and tracking economic activity and CAPED, as the center for reflection and analysis on public development policies;  Better structuring of the research and programming departments of the Ministries to give them the capacity to conduct and/or supervise technical, economic, or financial studies. To this end, these departments should have adequate, qualified human resources and the resources to perform effectively the functions assigned to them;  Effectively transfer functions to local governments, to boost the decentralization process. These transfers of functions should be accompanied by effective transfers of resources;  Elimination of the bottlenecks to using appropriations, so that spending units can assume their responsibility for management of appropriated funds, within the limit of the approved budget allocations. To this end, it is essential to accelerate the process of decentralization of expenditure authorizing officers;  Reducing contracting delays by developing strict laws and regulations, imposing respect for a maximum period of one month between receipt of bids and approval of the proposed contracts. Compliance with these deadlines would be a tool for evaluating the performance of the persons responsible for contracting in each of the ministerial departments, government institutions, and programs and projects;  Strengthening the capacity and evaluating the performance of government employees in conjunction with the challenges to be taken up. In this regard, specific measures for effective implementation of a reform of the entire administration should be adopted, including: i) introduction of a career plan for government employees; ii) creating 199 goal-oriented contracts with precise job descriptions within the government, and introducing civil service performance evaluations. Risks linked to financing the PDES The contribution of outside resources to development financing is still critical. However, the flow of aid to developing countries is currently shrinking. In addition, procedures for mobilizing external resources appear heavy and the capacity to mobilize them is weak. The weakness in mobilization capacity is also apparent in the case of internal resources. This poses a real risk to the availability of financial resources that are critical for implementation of the PDES programs, and could therefore jeopardize the chances of achieving the anticipated results. To mitigate this risk, the government will: i) organize a general round table on PDES financing, as well as sectoral round tables; ii) take steps to strengthen the PPP unit; and iii) put in place a mechanism for monitoring commitments of partners and tax reform measures. Risks linked to coordination of aid Failure to align aid to national priorities could also compromise achievement of objectives. Moreover, poor coordination of official development assistance, and poor integration and harmonization of the activities of technical and financial partners could have a serious negative impact on efforts to achieve the PDES results. To mitigate this risk, the government will strengthen the dialogue and coordination with technical and financial partners, with a view to implementing PDES guidelines together, in accordance with the Paris declaration. In addition, effective implementation of the national aid policy to be finalized before end-2012 and its action plan will make it possible to control this risk. 4.4. PROCEDURES FOR MONITORING AND EVALUATION OF THE PDES The mechanism for monitoring and evaluation of the PDES is based on knowledge acquired and lessons learned from implementing the SDRP and sectoral strategies. Following the principles of results-based development management, it will make it possible to produce reliable data in order to make good general policy choices, design appropriate sectoral strategies, better monitor the development of activities undertaken, show the strategic and sectoral results achieved, and guarantee more effective and efficient use of public resources. The system will provide information that will be useful for both internal and external purposes. It will be the principal management instrument for public sector managers to show the results obtained, including the status of progress made, difficulties encountered, and the performance of government services. The monitoring-evaluation system will also provide credible information 200 on the specific results of government action, on the use of public monies, and on the satisfaction of users of the public service from the standpoint of improving their standard of living. Description of the PDES monitoring and evaluation system The system for monitoring and evaluation of the PDES should make it possible to: i) monitor implementation of the action plan; ii) monitor results (impact); iii) conduct annual public spending reviews; iv) conduct mid-term and final evaluations; and v) evaluate the impact of public policies. Monitoring implementation will focus on both means and strategies (resources, products or goods and services provided). Government ministries and institutions should report on the status of implementation of their action plans in quarterly and annual technical and financial reports. These reports will be forwarded to the Permanent Secretariat in charge of monitoring implementation of the PDES. Monitoring of results will make it possible to evaluate achievement of sectoral and strategic results (sectoral and overall effects). This mechanism will aim at providing information on changes in the well-being of the population following implementation of PDES programs. This assessment will be based on the definition on of realistic indicators with annual targets. Products or results and effects are the key elements of this monitoring. The link between these two levels has to do with the interaction between means and strategies on the one hand and the targets of the action on the other. The targets of the results should be established on the basis of means and strategies. The public expenditure review will analyze the effectiveness of budget allocations and the alignment of expenditures with the PDES and sectoral strategies, and will assess the effectiveness of expenditures and their impact. Mid-term and final evaluations of the PDES will make it possible to determine the relevance, consistency, efficiency, and effectiveness of implementation of action plans, the sustainability of the effects obtained, and the impact of global and sectoral strategies. They will examine the causal relationship of results obtained, so that lessons can be drawn from them and successful experiences can be capitalized on. Evaluations of the impact of public policies will be conducted following an annual evaluation program determined by the national technical committee of the PDES and approved by the Interministerial Strategic Planning Commission. These evaluations will cover five to ten policies or measures every year. They can be conducted on either an ex-ante, simultaneous, or ex-post basis. 201 The monitoring and evaluation system will be based on a participatory (vertical and horizontal) approach, allowing for evaluation of the products (goods and services delivered) and the levels of achievement of sectoral effects of each of the PDES programs. It will involve an ongoing process of dialogue and coordination among the stakeholders and will focus on gathering reliable information useful for decision-making. Thus the system will be based on: i) respect for the mandates of the different structures; ii) coordination teams set up and operating at national, sectoral, regional, departmental, and communal levels; iii) manuals of procedure and precise performance indicators, and development of appropriate data collection tools; iv) production of quality data, in terms of reliability, regularity, and utility; v) use of data for decision-making; and vi) partnership built into the design and management of the system. Action plans of the monitoring-evaluation system The priorities of the PDES monitoring and evaluation system involve: i) making quality products available to all stakeholders; ii) putting monitoring and evaluation tools and instruments in place; iii) developing reporting of the results; iv) strengthening the statistical data system; v) implementing a national evaluation policy; and vi) setting up a decentralized monitoring system. i. Making quality products available To assist decision–making, the system will provide the following products within the required time limits: the annual report on monitoring implementation of PDES, the annual report on monitoring development projects and programs, the annual review of public expenditures, periodic evaluation reports, evaluation reports on the impact of public policies, and indicator monitoring tables. The annual report on monitoring implementation of the PDES will be results-based. More specifically, this report, prepared by the MP/AT/DC, will serve as a tool for sharing results and mobilizing resources. It will provide information on the immediate effects and products obtained in comparison with the anticipated results and the allocated resources, and an account of the risks identified, as well as prospects. It will be prepared on the basis of sectoral reports, the report on the economic and financial reform program, the public expenditure review, the monitoring report on the performance of government investment projects and programs (PIE), the monitoring report on implementation of the action plan of the DPG, and additional information, including surveys on households’ standard of living. In addition, each region will provide a results-based monitoring report that will be used to prepare sectoral reports. The annual monitoring report will be approved by the Interministerial Strategic Planning Commission before being forwarded to the government for adoption. It will be discussed every year at the National Assembly, in the presence of the Prime Minister. 202 The national monitoring report on development projects and programs will make it possible to evaluate performance by an analysis of the physical and financial execution of the government investment budget programs (BIE). Project and program monitoring will first be done at regional and sectoral level. Information from these reports will then be aggregated in a national project and program performance report. The report on the annual public expenditure review will be used for the following purposes: to examine the alignment of budget allocations with PDES guidelines and the amount of effective expenditures in relation to allocations, and whether they are in compliance with pre-established schedules; to analyze the types of investments producing the highest yields; and to evaluate the trend of public expenditures in comparison with previous years. Periodic evaluation reports: More specifically, over the 2012-2015 period, a mid-term review will be conducted at the end of 2014 and a final evaluation in 2015. This last evaluation will provide information for assessing changes that occurred in the well-being of Nigeriens. Sectoral policies will also be evaluated to assess the impact of programmed activities on the basis of criteria of effectiveness, efficiency, and sustainability. Evaluation reports on the impact of policies, programs and projects: The practice of ex-ante and ex-post evaluations and evaluations on the impact of programs and projects will be systematized in all sectors. All investments will be given ex-ante evaluations prior to their inclusion in sectoral CDMT and the PIE. Programs and projects and interventions of NGOs will also be evaluated carefully, to ensure that they are consistent with PDES guidelines and contribute to achieving the sectoral and strategic results of the PDES. To this end, new projects and programs and sectoral strategies should be prepared according to a conceptual framework predicting the impact evaluations. ii) Putting in place monitoring and evaluation tools and instruments The different instruments will be based on the matrix of results and the table for monitoring PDES indicators. In this regard, a limited list of indicators was defined when the strategic and sectorial results were formulated. The choice of these PDES monitoring indicators is the result of repeated work using a results-based management approach. To better evaluate progress made every year, targets were proposed for each indicator. A procedural manual on monitoring and evaluation, specifying the format and content of the instruments and tools, will be prepared. iii) Development of communication on results Implementation of a communication plan will make it possible to identify the information needs of the different stakeholders and the formats adapted to each of the users. In addition, this communication plan will make it possible to strengthen dialogue and debate on the key issues of the PDES, and will help disseminate information to all levels. 203 The NIGERINFO data bank will make it possible to store and present indicators essential for monitoring the different sectoral strategies and the PDES. It will include sectoral data and data from surveys. Sectoral data bases will be strengthened to this end. iv) Strengthening the statistical data system This will be accomplished by implementing the National Statistics Development Strategy (SNDS), the regular production of data for monitoring the PDES, and development of a geographical information system. The National Statistics Development Strategy, under revision, will regularly provide reliable information needed for monitoring the PDES, for the design, monitoring and evaluation of sectoral policies, and for evaluation of the impact of public policies and development programs. It will have the following objectives: i) strengthening institutional capacity and coordination of statistics; ii) improvement of systems and methods for collecting and processing data, in terms of quantity and quality; iii) development of data analysis capacity; iv) development of human resources; v) development of infrastructure and facilities; and vi) promotion of the storage, filing and regular dissemination of information. Production of statistical data in response to the needs of the PDES, sectoral strategies, and public policies: Information needs involve coverage, access, use, and satisfaction of the users of public services, production of goods and services (products and services delivered to beneficiaries), and their distribution. To this end, data will be collected under a program of priority surveys planned under the SNDS, aimed at providing information to define a baseline situation, measure changes, and make comparisons between certain groups. Moreover, administrative structures will be strengthened to collect, use, and regularly publish information pertaining to their fields of competence, to respond to users’ needs. Development of the Geographical Information System (SIG) will improve targeting of beneficiary populations to develop programs linked to land management and planning, construction of roads and engineering projects, management of natural resources, preservation of the environment, agriculture, water supply, mines, rural development, national security, and construction of social infrastructures. A national plan for using a unifying geographical information system will be prepared and implemented. This plan will describe how information, technology, and structures will be brought together to form the SIG. The following activities will also be carried out: i) preparation of a numerical data base of basic maps; ii) revitalization of the national mapping and remote sensing committee (CNC/T), which is an efficient instrument for better programming of mapping 204 of the national territory; and iii) modernization of the geographical information and documentation center. v) Implementation of the National Evaluation Policy The national evaluation policy will be adopted and implemented to improve evaluation on the supply and demand side, by improving evaluation practices, promoting evaluation, and strengthening human, material, and institutional capacities. In this context, a capacity-building program will be put into operation. The program will focus on: i) improving the organizational and institutional framework; ii) developing human and financial resources; iii) construction of facilities; iv) defining rules and procedures; and v) support for publication of monitoring and evaluation reports. vi) Setting up a decentralized PDES monitoring system Decentralization confers important responsibilities on local governments to manage their administrative entity. Thus, the different bodies of the national monitoring and evaluation system should be represented at all levels. However, in view of the weak capacity of resources, the communal system of the PDES can only be implemented gradually with the assistance of good programming. For the time being, decentralized government services (in regions and departments) will ensure supervision of communes, and a local capacity-building program in statistical procedures, planning, monitoring and evaluation will be implemented in accordance with the decentralization policy. The decentralized monitoring system will eventually provide data for preparing regional and communal development plans. The institutional mechanism for coordination and monitoring-evaluation of the PDES The institutional PDES monitoring and evaluation mechanism draws on lessons learned from implementation of the SDRP and the current institutional framework, especially restoration of the Planning Ministry, which ensures coordination of the national development policy. One of the principles of the mechanism will be consultation and dialogue with all partners (TFP, CSO, private sector) at all levels. This will enable stakeholders to follow and analyze the results obtained throughout implementation of the PDES. It will give the different stakeholders an opportunity to follow accomplishments and results of the PDES and sectoral strategies as they occur. Thus two levels of coordination and monitoring-evaluation of the PDES are defined. They will be governed by regulations. The mechanism entities will meet regularly to provide guidelines and assess the results of implementation of the PDES. 205 Policy guidance and steering entities The PDES Guidance Council, presided over by the Prime Minister, Head of Government, meets once a year. It is composed of all members of the government, the High Commissioner for the 3N Initiative, the High Commissioner for Modernization of Government, and the President of the High Authority for the Consolidation of Peace. The Council is responsible for evaluating and determining any new PDES guidelines on the basis of the main results and international issues at stake. The Interministerial Strategic Planning Commission is presided over by the Planning Minister. It is composed of the members of government, the High Commissioner of the 3N Initiative, and the Secretary-General of the Office of the President. It is the entity for monitoring and evaluation of implementation of the PDES. Its task in this regard is to assess the progress made in implementing the PDES, provide needed directives for proper execution of the PDES, make sure that PDES priorities are observed in budget programming, and assess the impact of its implementation on economic and social development. It will report regularly to the Guidance Council on implementation of action plans and other activities. The OECD/DAC committee of technical and financial partners is tasked with promoting the coordination and harmonization of the activities of the different stakeholders, facilitating the mobilization of financial and technical resources, and ensuring that assistance is aligned with the budget cycle. It also serves as the sole conduit for dialogue between the government and its partners in the process of monitoring implementation of the PDES. More specifically, it will ensure that the results of the reviews are taken into account in allocating resources to the priorities contained in the PDES. Its mission is part of the activities of the OECD/DAC committee, notably assessment of the relevance and financing of PDES programs. In this context, it will be co-chaired by the Planning Minister and the co-chairmen of the OECD/DAC. The Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development is the coordinating structure for monitoring implementation of the PDES, in cooperation with the unit monitoring government activities in the office of the Prime Minister, the Research and Programming Departments, and the structures of the national statistics system (INS, sectoral statistics departments, and institutions). Technical coordination will be provided by the Evaluation Department, which will also provide technical and procedural support to the permanent secretariat and sectoral committees. It will see to it that the information and recommendations stemming from evaluations are acted on. It will set up a data base on the results or produced by projects and programs. 206 Technical and operational PDES monitoring-evaluation entities The National Technical Committee, chaired by the Secretary-General of the Ministry of Planning, Land Management, and Community Development, will consist of the Secretaries-General of the Ministries, the TFPs, and representatives of civil society and the private sector. It will be responsible for promoting synergy among the different sectors and controlling the quality of information and reports submitted by the sectoral committees. It will approve the annual monitoring report on implementation of the PDES, prior to submitting it to the National Government Committee – TFP and to the Interministerial Strategic Planning Commission. It will promote the sectoral action plans and coordinate the organization of reviews. The sectoral committees will be chaired by the Secretaries-General of the sectoral technical ministries. They are responsible for determining the status of implementation of the different sectoral policies and programs. They will make sure that sectoral strategies are consistent with the PDES and that projects and programs are consistent with sectoral results. They will be set up on the basis of the five strategic pillars of the PDES. The TFP will also be members of these sectoral committees. They will meet at least twice a year. The regional PDES monitoring committees, chaired by the governors, are responsible for planning activities and for monitoring and evaluating activities at regional level. They will define the annual programs on the basis of regional development plans and will issue a regional annual report on PDES monitoring. They will also serve as the framework for consultation and information for all of the regional stakeholders. Departmental PDES monitoring committees, which will be chaired by prefects, are responsible for planning interventions and for monitoring and evaluation of activities at departmental level. They will issue an annual departmental report on PDES monitoring based on the monitoring reports of the communes. They will also serve as entities for consultation and information for all departmental stakeholders, and they will provide support to the communes for preparation of their monitoring reports. The communal PDES monitoring committees, which are chaired by mayors, are in charge of preparing output-based monitoring reports. They will receive support from the departmental committees. The permanent secretariat for implementation of the PDES is in charge of leading and coordinating the institutional mechanism. It will ensure that the various activities involved are properly executed. Its function is to lead the process of formulating sectoral strategies, and to coordinate implementation of recommendations made in PDES monitoring and evaluation reports. To this end, it will make sure that the information is used to improve implementation of sectoral strategies. It will see to it that information on the results is circulated horizontally to all structures involved and vertically from the central level to decentralized levels. 207 It will serve as the secretariat for decision-making entities of the mechanism at central level in relation to the sectoral structures (National Strategic Planning Commission, National Government Committee / Technical and Financial Partners, National Technical Committee). It will provide technical support to the decentralized committees. For this task, it will rely on the Evaluation Department and central and decentralized structures responsible for monitoring and evaluation, which will furnish it with thematic, sectoral, and regional reports for preparation of the annual monitoring reports. 208 Figure 6. Institutional Mechanism for PDES Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation Dispositif institutionnel de C~ord nation etde suivi-Evaluation duPDES Cllnsell d'O rlenta!londuPDS E CommssionH 1tiona'e de Com1i OCOfJOAC Pllllfotion Strat!gioue lliuttrt diJ >ltJI,dt I :.mir~!lmnt C~m'"'"'" I~ Com~e Techniqu National e v ,.;, / )ecretariatPermanent\ ~\ dem ise en cruvre du POES 1- ~ C omHesSectoriels ~ . C«!! titFII cmult "''Ill ~\ I IIi utirt en :"ra, en I ?OIS ~ OGv I I I {'r I ! I~ ~niMSCI RW>!rche ~ . I I Com tHDi mtmtntll.O