This s e r i e s of unrefereed discussion papers is intended to provide a n i n i t i a l c i r c u l a t i o n of work prepared under the auspices of the ?opulation aud Human Resources Division. Comments a r e therefore very welcome. The papers should not be c i t e d withotit clearance by the authors. The views expressed a r e not necessarily those of the World h n k Group. Population and Human Resources Division Discussion P a ~ e rNo. 81-61 THE: DETERMINAiiS AND CONSEQUENCES OF EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEENT I N THE RURAL CHIXNG MI VALLEY December 1981 Prepared by: . Susan H. Cochrane Dean T. Jamison - Prepared f o c i - Research ~ S o j e c t671-49, "Education and Xural Development i n Nepal and Thailznd" The World b n k Washington, D.C. 20433 U.S.X. THE DETERHIXXVS AND CONSEQUENCES OF EDUCXTICW ACHIEVEEENT I N THE R'JRU. CHI.WG XU VALLEY Susan a. Cochra~~eand Dean Jamison Abst r a ct This paper presents the r e s u l t s of the analysis of data from 419 households i n 22 r u r a l villages i n Northern Thailand. The determ:Lnants of educational attainments of children and adults a s well a s the determinants of the enrollment of children a r e examined. In addition, the consequences of schooling for the cognitive s k i l l s of l i t e r a c y and numeracy i n adults a r e explored. The determinants of schooling depend on household characteristics (such a s landownership and number of younger children), on village character- i s t i c s (such a s the proportion of children 13-14 working, a v a i l a b i l i t y of wage work and access t o schools) and on igdividual characteristic? of the parents azd the child. For those 5-25, achievement is always positively related t o the educational attailllaent of the father and, i n 5 of the 6 cases, t o t h a t of the mother a s well. (Parental education a c t s through the aspirations that parents have for their children.) Achievement is a l s o always negatively icelated t o the employment of children i n the village. Land is generally positively related t o achievement and the number of children under 5 is negatively significant For g i r l s . Access to school is not consistent i n its significance. Upper p r i m r y seems t o be the more serious constraint and has a negative effect on attainment of a l l children, and i n one case for g i r l s . For individuals 14-25, we have measures of t h e i r innate a b i l i t y a s well a s other variables. Ability is the most significant factor #affecting t h e i r achievements. Younger children always have a negative effect on achievemect but landownership only has significant e f f e c t s on males and a l l children and not females. Only father's (not mother's) education is significant f o r this-group. The a v a i l a b i l i t y of uage work is not significant f o r females, but is otherwise negatively significant. I The effect of access t o schooling varies substantially by sex. Access to lower priaary school is no.: significant for females, but is f o r others. Access to upper primary is only marginally significant i n one of two cases f o r females, but is highly s i p i f i c a n t i n a l l other cases. This suggests that access is not "the" binding constraint i n most casesifor g i r l s , -- but is a binding constraint for boys. For g i r l s , parental aspiratPons a r e more s i g n i f i u n t i n constraining participation. 8 e The. data on the consequences of schooling indicate that school's r o l e i n developing cognitive a b i l i t y d i f f e r s f o r l i t e r a c y and numeracy and, For the l a t t e r , varies by sex. Numeracy seems to be l e s s dependent on Formal schooling than does literacy, especially For males. In a l l cases innate a b i l i t y has a significant effect on numeracy and literacy. Table of Contents Page The Determinants of Educational Participation and - 2 Attainment: Theory The Data Determinants of Educational Attainment: The Evidence The Determinants of Educational Participation: The Evidence consequences of Education for Literacy and Numeracy Synthesis THE DETERMIXARTS AVD CONSEQUENCES OF EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEYEYE LV THE RURAL C H M G ElAI VALLEY Susan H. Cochrane and Dean T. Jamison* Hodernization of Thai s o c i e t y has b,en profoundly shaped by the in- troduction of modern education during the reign of King Chulalongkorn (1868- 1910). In the early years t h i s concern was centered on the education of t h e e l i t e , bur i n 1906 t h e purposes of mass education were beginning t o be a r t i c u - lated. By 1909 universal education began t o be seriously pursued and by 1921, four thousand s t a t e schools had been established. I n t h a t year educa- t i o n w a s made compulsory f o r a l l children between 7 and 14, but it was some- time before f a c i l i t i e s were available t o provide even universal lower primary education. But by the inid 1960's over 50 percent of those over 15 had 4 o r more years of schooling and by 1970 a d u l t l i t e r a c y a t t a i n e d 70 percent. 21 - Oespite t h i s remarkable achievement tkere a r e still regional inequal- i t i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n access t o upper primary education (5 t o 7 years). I n our sample area a l l v i l l a g e s had a lower primary school within 2 kilometers i n 1972173, but access t o upper primary school was much more limited acrl some v i l l a g e r s had t o t r a v e l 15 kilometers t o an upper primary school. In 1978 t h e primary school system was reorganized i n t o two- three year cycles r a t h e r than the old 4 (lower) and 3 (upper) cycle and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of upper primary . I *: We would l i k e t o thank Kalpana Nandwani f o r her hard work and i n s i g h t s i n t h e preparation of t h i s paper. L -1k D.K. - Wajatt i n Stanner and Kirsch (1975) f o r a discussion of the spread '6-f n o d e n education i n the reign of King Chulalongkorn. I -21 For a d e t a i l e d description of educational expansion i n Thailand see Chapter V I I I of ESCQ, Country Yonograph on Thailand, 1976. schools was increased. In 14 of the 17 v i l l a g e s i n our sample f o r which we have data upy?r secondary schools were c l o s e r t o the v i l l a g e i n 1978 than i n 1972173. The trend i n educational achievement i n our sample can be seen i n Figure 1. Individuals over 50 years of age have an average of 3-112 t o 4-112 years l e s s schooling than those vho a r e now 15-25. A t a l l ages females have about half a year l e s s schooling than males. The determinants of educational p a r t i c i p a t i o n and attainment among those of school age 5-25 and of those beyond norrnal school. age 25-60 w i l l be examined i n the f i r s t two portions of t h e paper. The consequences of school attainment f o r the achievement of l i t e r a c y and numeracy w i l l be reviewed i n the l a s t s e c t i o n of the paper. The Determinants of Educational P a r t i c i p a t i o n and Attainment: Theory Investment i n the education of children i n developing countries has been analyzed a s an economic decision by a number of authors (see B i r d s a l l , 1981, and B i r d s a l l and Cochrane, 1981, f o r reviews of these s t u d i e s ) . Educa- tion is an investment i n hunan c a p i t a l and decisions depend on the costs and benefics of that investment a s well a s household preferences. The costs of education depends on both the d i r e c t costs of foregone c h i l d labor (and per- . I haps foregone l e i s u r e of children depending on the family u t i l i t y function). - The b e n e f i t s t o education incluce the g r e a t e r p o t e n t i a l earnings t h a t a r i s e from having more education. Tlig benefits also include the consumption value * -- of education. Pconornic theory predicrs t h a t the higher the costs of education, the lower the l e v e l of p a r t i c i p a t i o n of children i n school and the lower the levels of educational achievement. I n our sample the d i r e c t costs of school- ing include the c o s t s of books acd uniforms. These costs may vary s l i g h t l y across households, but these variations a r e l i k e l y t o be f a i r l y small. The major v a r i a t i o n i n the c o s t of education probably a r i s e s from variations i n opportunity c o s t s of the child's time. These include the l o s s of labor (or l e i s u r e ) f o r the time children spend i n school and the t r a v e l t i m e t o school which is captured i n the distance t o schools. These two c o s t s have only been measured a t the communicy l e v e l i n our sample. A t the household level, the need f o r c h i l d labor depends on land ownership and the need for child care of younger s i b l i n g s . The benefits t o schooling depend on labor market conditions which may vary somewhat between v i l l a g e s i n our sample. I n addition they depend on t h e a b l l i t y of children t o c a p i t a l i z e on schooling. This a b i l i t y is r e f l e c t e d i n a measure of innate a b i l i t y which we have collected f o r a l l householcl members 14 years of age and above. -1/ The return t o schooling may depend on the sex of the child a s well a s on a b i l i t y . Parental a b i l i t y and schooling may increase the parents' educational a s p i r a t i o n s a s w e l l as a f f e c t the environment within the home which makes edu- c?tion l e s s c o s t l y o r more rewarding. These f a c t o r s include the presence of . L reading material and the a b i l i t y of parents t o help with homework. The household's demand f o r schooling depends on :?come and preferences a s w e l l as on the costs and benefits of education. -1/ Ve used the Raven's Color Progressive Yatrix Test to measure innate a b i l i t y . I n analyzing the determinants of schooling i n our sample we s h a l l s p l i t t h e sample i n t o t h r e e groups: (1) those 5 t o 25, some of whom a r e still investing i n schooling; (2) those 14-25 most of whom have completed school, but some of whom a r e &?king important investments beyond the normal l e v e l , and (3) those 25-60 whose educational decisions were made some t i m e i n the past. The data a v a i l a b l e on these three groups vary s u b s t a n t i a l l y and the a n a l y s i s w i l l therefore vary. The educational p a r t i c i p a t i o n and achievement of those 5-25 a r e shown i n Figures 2 and 3. These f i g u r e s show l i t t l e v a r i a t i o n by sex. After age 10 educational p a r t i c i p a t i o n drops off rapidly, but average achievement continues t o increase u n t i l the l a t e teens. We s h a l l analyze the determinants of achievement using the above model. Before examining the empirical r e s u l t s it is necessary t o b r i e f l y discuss the data used. The Data The data u t i l i z e d f o r the analysis i n t h i s paper comes from several d i f f s r e n t s e c t i o n s of the survey. Table 1 summarizes the v a r i a b l e defini- t i o n s , means and standard deviations of the v a r i a b l e s used i n various p a r t s of the analysis. For children 5-13 we have data on t h e i r educational attainment and 3 I current enrollment s t a t u s from the household r o s t e r . Household data is a l s o a v a i l a b l e on landowilership and the number of children under 5 from other * portions of the q u e t i o n n a i r e . -- Village l e v e l data on access t o schools is a v a i l a b l e and the @opcr:ion * of children 10-14 working i n each v i l l a g e has been aggregated f rot! housei~c.ld r o s t e r s . 'fiat is unique about our data on these individuals is t h a t we havz extensive inf ormation on t h e i r parents. This includes not only the parents' own educstion, but measures of parental FIVERAGE YERRSOF SCHOOLING 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 I I C m D Z m 0 C 0 D D 4 0 m I -c - Z W 4 - m D - m cn rn P - 7 - 4 V - a c( - D G7) m - - .r - i P * 8.0 !e .. innate i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y and the parents' educational a s p i r a t i o n s f o r t h e i r sons and daughters. For individuals 14 and over we have r o s t e r information, neasures of t h e i r own schooling, t h e i r parknts' l i t e r a c y s t a t u s and t h e i r o m i n t e l l e c t u a l . a b i l i t y , l i t e r a c y and numeracy. I n addition, f o r many of those between 14 and 25, we have data on t h e i r parents e d u c a t i ~ n a lattainment and a b i l i t i e p . Thus f o r many of those 5-25 w e have not only t h e i r own educational attainment but that of t h e i r parents and the l i t e r a c y of t h e i r grandparents. The seasures of i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y , l i t e r a c y and numeracy need some f u r t h e r explanation. To measure innate a b i l i t y we s e l e c t e d the Raven's Coloured Prcgressive Xatrix. L/ This is a perceptual t e s t which is not language dependent and does not depend on schooling per s e and is believed t o be a measure of n a t u r a l i n t e l l e c t u a l endowment. This t e s t has been used i n a vide variety of c u l t u r e s , but cannot necessarily be considered to be inde- pendent of culture. The mean scores was 20.43 f o r our sample and the maximun score was 36. For our measure of l i t e r a c y we have given t e s t s of reading and writing. Scorns on these t e s t s have been aggregated. h t e s t of comprehension la was a l s o used, but'was not used i n the a n a l y s i s presented here because the subject matter being used f o r the t e s t was r i d e l y known. The mean score was 12.25 and the mximum was 16. For our t e s t of numeracy we asked icdividuals 4 questions which required addition o r s u b t r a c t i o n and 9 which requTred multiplication o r division. .Zn average 3.6 of the f i r s t questions were answered c o r r e c t l y and 5.7 of the second. -I / See Ravens, J.C. Guide t o Using the Colouted Progressive Yatrices, 1956. Table 1 Variable Definitions and Distribution f o r Various Data Sets Children 5-13 Variable Name Definition X-- s n INSCH I f child i n schaol = 1, otherwise zero YF.SSCH Years of school c3mpleted GRDEV School years completed r e l a t i v e t o average f o r individuals of that age AGE Age ?lSCHYRS Years of school completed by person's mother FSCHY?.S Years of school completed by person's f a t h e r mvsC Hother's Xavens Score FLlVSC Father's Ravens Score ?IDEC Xothers' Desired Education f o r the Individual FDEC Father's Desired Education f o r the Individual NDES Hother's Desired Education f o r Sons FDES Father's Desired Education f o r Sons XDED Xother's Desired Education f o r Daughters FDED Father's Desired Education f o r Daughters LAND78 Eousehold Land Ownership 1978 CUNDR5 Number of Children under 6 PCW10-14 Proportion of children 10-14 working i n v i l l a g e LDRIMD7S Distance t o lower primaty school 1978 UPRIXD78 Distance t o upper primal-y school 1978 SEX Nale = 1 W E : Xother's desired add'l education f o r children FADEC Father's desired add'l education f o r children ROMD Distance t o main road Individuals 14-25 Variable - Name Variable Definition X INSCH I f individual is ~n school=l, otherwise zero YRSSCH School years completed GRDEV School years completed r e l a t i v e t o average f o r individuals of t h a t age AGE Age MSCHYRS Years of school completed by person's mother FSCHYRS Years of school completed by person's f a t h e r RAVSC Individual's Ravens score MRAVSC Mother's Ravens Score FRAVSC Father's Ravens Score MDEC Yother's desired education f o r the individual FDEC Father's desired education f o r t h e individual XDES Mother's desired education f o r sons FDES Father's desired education f o r sons MDED Mother's desired education f o r daughters FDED Father's desired ,duatian f o r daughters OLAND73 Lend-owned by household i n 1973 PVWMY Propqrtion of males 14-25 i n wage work o r who can get wage work times t h e average wage Proportion of females 14-25 i n wage work o r who can g e t wage work times t h e average wage i;lNDRl3 Children i n household under 14 LlJRIMD72 Distance t o lower primary school i n 1972 UPRMD72 Distnce t o upper primary school i n 1972 SEX Hales = 1 Individuals 14-60 AGE Age 33.37 SCHYRS School years completed 4.29 fWT~SC -Score on Ravens Color Progressive Natrix * " ~ . 4 3 LITSC Score on a t e s t of reading and w r i t i n g 12.25 NU14SC Score on a t e s t . f arithmetic ability(NUMA+NUMB) 9.35 NlMA Score on a t e s t of addition and subtraction 3.61 bIMB Score on a t e s t of m u l t i p l i c a t i o n and d i v i s i o n 5.71 SEX Hales = 1 0.49 Deteminants of Zducatisnal httainmcnt: The Evidence ~ Table 2 summarizes t h e determinants of years of education completed ~ and of achievement r e l a t i v e t o t h e average f o r children of a given age. This a n a l y s i s is shown f o r males and females separately and pooled. The most con- sistent factors affecting achievenent are the aspirations of the father and mother f o r the child. No other variable is consistently s i g n i f i c a n t i n a l l equations. The proportion of children working i n the v i l l a g e is s i g n i f i c a n t i n a l l cases b s t one, houever. Land 5 a e r s h i p is s i g n i f i c a n t k j p o s i t i v e f o r a l l children i n t h e f i r s t s p e c i f i c a t i o n and f o r males i n both specifica- tions. The p o s i t i v e c o e f f i c i e n t on land indicates t h a t thc income e f f e c t of land caminates t h e opportunity c o s t e f f e c t of land on the demand f o r c h i l d labor. The presence of children under 6 has a s i g n i f i c a n t l y negative e f f e c t on a l l children and g i r l s i n the f i r s t specification. The r o l e of p a r e n t a l education and i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y is not strong. This pro',5ly arises fro= the fact that these act largely through p a r e n t z l a s p i r a t ~ o n sf o r c h i l d schooling. Only the mother's i n t e l l e c t u a l a b i l i t y shows significance i n -re than one equation. . .As hypothesized, it . L increases achievement uhen it is s i g n i f i c a n t . I n reduced form equations when - - a s p i r a t i o n s a r e d e l e t e d f r o n the a n a l y s i s , parents schooling o r Raven's 2 (depending on whi& is created a s exogenous), is postive and s i g n i f i c a n t i n - - every case. * .. Access t o schools is generaily not s i g n i f i c a n t . This aI!i s e s perhaps r because of the e f f e c t of t h i s access on the proportiqn of children working i n I the v i l l a g e o r because of t h e f a c t t h a t , f o r many of those i n the 5-25 age group, the decisions t o renain i n school were nade too f a r i n the past f o r I current access t o -erelevant. Table 2: The Determinants of Years of School Completed and Completion Relative to Average for Age for Those 5 to 25 YRSSCH YRSSCii YRSSCH GRDEV GRDEV GRDEV Pooled Elal es Females Pooled ?lales Females AGE AGESQ MDEC FDEC HSCHYRS FSCHYRS SEX ~i~ n * Significant at kOX. * - *** Significant atbe percent. Tinerefore, t o more f u l l y explore the r o l e of accoss, we s h a l l f i r s t examine the achievement of those 14-25 using data on school a v a i l a b i l i t y a t e a r l i e r points i n time. An a l t e r n a t i v e way of exploring the r o l e of access i n determining achievement is t o examine the current enrollment of c h i l d r e n i n school and its r e l a t i o n s h i p t o access. The same f a c t o r s should a f f e c t the educational attainment of young a d u l t s a s of youngtar children, except t h a t age may play a l e s s e r r o l e s i n c e most children compleie school p r i o r t o 14 a s shown i n Figure 2. We can explore determinants of schooling s l i g h t l y nore with t h i s age group because w e have measures of t h e i r innate a b i l i t y . Table 3 shows t h a t a b i l i t y is the most important f a c t o r a f f e c t i n g schooling i n a l l 6 equations. This is followed by the educational. a s p i r a t i o n s of sothers. Fathers' educational a s p i r a t i o n s f o r sons is not s i g n i f i c a n t , but - - it is significant for daughters and for a l l children pooled. Parental educa- t i o n 1/ and a b i l i t y is generally i n s i g n i f i c a n t a s a r e wage variables. - The a v a i l a b i l i t y of land has a positive e f f e c t on schooling of a l l children and sons, but not daughters. The presence of children under 14 has a negative , r e f f e c t on sans and a l l children, but not daughters. Host i n t e r e s t i n g from a policy perspective, t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of p r i - - mary schools, upper and lower i n 1972, has a g G e r a l l y significant: e f f e c t . - i This e f f e c t is much stronger and more c o n s i s t e a than the p a r a l l e l e f f e c t i n - t h e achievement of a l l those 5-25. - 1/ Reduced for3 equations i n which educational aspirations are deleted show t h a t f a t h e r ' s Xavens o r education always has a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t , but t h a t mother's does not. For c h i l d r e n 5-25 both parent's a b i l i t y and schooling had s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s . Table 3: Determinants of Schooling among Young Adults (15-25) YRSSCH GRDEV Pooled Xales ema ales Pooled Xales Females Constant RAVSC AGE AGESQ XDEC FDEC FRAVSC P V G m Sex *** Significant 14, ** Significant at 54, * Significant at 10%. .E & shown in Figure 1 there has been a secular increase in the school- ing of males and females. We have relatively l i t t l e data on the factors affecting educational decisions a t the time they were made f o r those over 25. We do have data, however, on t h e i r parents' education, t h e i r own a b i l i t y , the place they grew up and whether there was a primary o r secondary school i n the current village of resident a t the time they were of school age. The effect of these variables is summarized i n Table 4. The measure of innate a b i l i t y lras a strong positive effect for both men and women. The literacy of the parent of opposite sex has a significantly positive effect f o r men and women. For women age has a significant non-linear effect. The older the woman, the less education she is likely to have. This effect levels off only a t very high ages. The only other variable of signifi- cance is whether a nan has lived i n a town or c i t y prior t o corning to the viTlage. The availability of a primary school i n the village a t the time the adult was growing up was insignificant. This lack of significance probably r e f l e c t s the poor quality of data on the length of time a school has been present. Table 4: Determinants of Educational Attainment in Adults (25-60) Yales Females Constant AGE AGESQ FLIT - 14 - The Determinants of Educational P a r t i c i p a t i o n : The Evidence hc5ievement is the r e s u l t of a s e r i e s of decisions t o enrol.1 i n school. 3ne problem with estimating the f a c t o r s determining achievement is t h a t f o r the most p a r t t!~e variables ;re measure a r e not relevant t o the t i n e period i3 which the decision &as made. This is t r u e of family variables such as income l e v e l o r the number of dependent children, and v i l l a g e v a r i a b l e s such a s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of employment opportunities f o r children and schools. TO get a more x c L - a t e p i c t u r e of the f a c t o r s a f f e c t i n g the sequences 3f decisions which detersline ultimate educational attainment we can examine the determinants of current p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n school. Figure 6 models the determinants of current p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n school. This is b ~ s i c a l l ya recursive, stock adjustment model. Current enrollaent depends on the excess demand f o r education by the mothers and f a t h e r s , the a c c e s to- lower and upper prirnary schools and the age of tl-e person. Table 5 summarizes the r e s u l t s of multiple regressions explaining p a r t i c i p a t i o n . These r e s u l t s a r e f o r ordinary l e a s t squares. Probit a n a l y s i s chtnges the non- linear e f f e c t s of age a s might be exppcted but does not change , the s i g n i f i c a n c e of access t o upper primary schooling o r sex. The f z c t o r s a f f e c t i n g p a r t i c i p a t i o n d i f f e r by a g e ~ g r o u pand by sex f o r the youngest 'i - group. Age has the expected non- linear e f f e c t f o r t h e youngest group and - males a r e more l i k e l y t o a t t e n d schoo& i n t h i s group. The demand f o r addi- t i o n a l schooling v a r i e s i n its s i g n i f i c a n c e depending on the sex. Father's excess demand has a narginally s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t f o r a l l children. The rnother's desired a d d i t i o n a l education of her daughters has a much l a r g e r and more s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on the p a r t i c i p a ~ i o nof g i r l s i n school. Access t o - 15 - Table 5: Determinants of Educational Enrollmest Children 5-13 Young .Adults 14-25 Pooled Xale Female Pooled >lale Female Constant RAVSC AGE AGESQ CUNDRS or CUNDR13 ROADD SEX z2 n upper primary school is cleqrly a significant constraint on the school.ing of males and of all children, h: rather xrprisingly not for females. For children beyond 13 (who should have completed primary school) only age an6 abilizy affect participation. I? in fact the measure of ability we are using reflects innate ability and is ncr a product of the schooi 5jr.S- tem, then nur results in participation of those 14-25 is reassuring. That is, it 5s the more able vho continue !n school rather than :hose rrich wealthy parents. Neither sex ncr distaccg from the main rohd(the best neasure we have of distance to secondary schools) is a signifZcant constraint on par- ticipation. If the ability score is left 3ut distaacc to llpper primary schools has a significantly negative sffect on participation of sms, but not daughters. Although the desired additional achievement of children is not a binding-constraint in all cases inthis sample, educational aspirations are highly significant in explaining achievement. Therefore it is important to - * ... examine its determinants. .As Table 5 illustrates parental education and innate ability are the most significant factors explaining aspirations and these effects are perfectly consistent for fathers and mothers, sons and L daughters. Thus it appears the main effect of parental educational background on achievement is through aspirations. The only other variable that affects aspirations is the proportion of children working in the village. This effect - has a negative significant effect for mothers only. The costs and benefits of . education as measured by landownership and the presence of children under 5 are not significant. Table 6: Determinants of Educational Aspirations for Children Fathers Mothers 7 DES DED DES DZD Constant s m s RAVSC Consequences cf Sducation f o r Literacy and Sumezacy Education has been hypothesized t o a f f e c t behavior i n many ways. "Schooling imparts specific knowledge and develops geheral reasoning skills ( i t s cognitive e f f e c t s ) ; it a l s o induces changes i n b e l i e f s and values and i n a t t i t u d e s toward work and s o c i e t y ( n o n r o g n i t i v e e f f e c t s ) . The r e l a t i v e importance of these is much debated but poorly understood; both a r e extremely ." important (WDR 1980, 67 .) E a r l i e r i n t h i s paper we explained the e f f e c t s of parental education on t h e a s p i r a t i o n s f o r educational achievement of children. I n another paper w e have documented the importance of t h e husband's education on h i s a t t i t u d e towards contraception and thus its e f f e c t on usage. I n t h i s s e c t i o n we w i l l discuss the e f f e c t of education on t h e l i t e r a c y and numeracy of those 14-60. The simple r e l a t i o n s h i p between school years conpleted and l i t e r a c y and nuneracy a r e shorn i n Figures 5 and 6. 1/ OthFr f a c t o r s which ray explain - both of these cognitive s k i l l s are i n n a t e a b i l i t y , age, and sex. Table 7 summarizes the r e s u l t s of the mlti,w analysis far inales d females separateljr and pooled. The e remarkably high f o r cross- sectional micro data. It is substantially less for e I I numeracy. The measure of innate a b i l i t y , years of schooling anJ age have t h e inost consistent p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s on l i t e r a c y and numeracy. - Hales have nar- - g i n a l l y lower numeracy e t e r i s paribus, but sex is not s i g n i f i c a n t in .5 I explaining l i t e r a c y . iinprovement of both l i t e r a c y and numeracy s k i l l s -l/Separate analysis of the addition- substraction and m l t i p l i c a t i o n - d i v i s i o n portions of the numeracy score shows t h a t the same v a r i a b l e s a r e generally s i g n i f t c a n t i n both cases. The only n a j o r excep ion is t h a t sex is not s i g n i f i c a n t i n explaining proficiency i n m u l t i p l i c a t i o n and division. Figure 4 r t *I* I d@ ' - 'THE EFFECT OF LOUCATTON ON LITERACY BY AGE RND SEX YERRS OF EDUCRTION I NUMERACY SCORE Table 7: The Deterininants of Adult Cognitive A b i l i t y f o r those 14 t o 60 Literacy Numeracy Score Pooled Males Females Pooled Nales Females Constant -3.24 -4.31 -1.43 Age 0.154*** 0.23 I*** 0.078 (3.69) (3.87) (1.34) -Age Squared -.002*** -.003*** -.002** (4.02) (3.71) ( 2 . ~ 9 ) School Years 3.8?4*** 3.68"" 3. go*** (37.98) (2.39) (27.57) School Years Squared -.243*** -.224*** -.252*** (31.37) (20.08) (22.04) Rzvens Score 0.143**+: .132*** 0.142*** (9.15) (6.09; (6.23) Sex -0.087 - - (0.A9) iI2 0.72 0.62 0.77 n 1206 594 611 Saturation Point (Age) -11 76 77 - Saturation Point (Years of School) -11 16 16 15 ** Significant a t 5%. *** Significant a t 1%. -11 These a r e maximum points on the curve. These values a r e only shown when value of the variable and the squared value a r e both s i g n i f i ~ a n i . with age is rather surprising. It would seea to inply that these skills are used regularly and do not depreciate from non-use a t l e a s t f o r m l e s . For f ~ m a l e sthe positive e f f e c t of age is lover and is i n s i g n i f i c a n t f o r l i t e r a c y . Both age and years of schooling have generally nonlinear e f f e c t s . These imply saturation of schooling and experiencs (age) on l i t e r a c y and nuneracy. The srcuration pcint f o r l i t e r e c p is 15 or 16 years of schooling while t h a t f o r numeracy is much higher. This tends to confirm t h e pattern shown i n Figures 4 and 5. It should be noted, however, chat the levels of satnration should not be interpreted too seriously since they lie outside t h e "w observea range. When one examines the non- linear e f f e c t s of schooling i n mre d e t a i l (Table 8) using indicator variables, the pat tern of significance changes. Xse ceases t o have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on l i t e r a c y . Each l e v e l of schooling has - a positive significant effect on the acquisition of literacy, but increments of completed primary and above have stronger e f f e c t s than do 1-3 years of schooling. For nuneracy the significance of sex disappears. kut the pattern of education's e f f e c t on numeracy varies s u b s t a n t i a l l y by sex. For males, . r completed primary and schooling of seven years o r more have s i g n i f i c a n t posi- -- t i v e e f f e c t s , but other amounts of schooling have no s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s . For a females, age has no e f f e c t on nurneracy, but every increment i n schqoling - i s i g n i f i c a n t l y increases nuoeracy. If one looks a t the scparace components of !m E I numeracy (regressions not shown), we find t h a t for fetcalss a l l l e v e l s of schoolins increase 'both types of numeracy. For males, all schooling 4 years or zore lncrease a b i l i t y a t a d d i t i o n and s u b t r a c ~ i o n ,but cnlg 7 years o r more a f f e c t s t h e i r acquisition 05 multiplication and division. This combined vith higher adjusted s and the i n s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t of age on numeracy t o r Table 8: Nonlinear Effects of Education on Cognitive Outcomes Literacy Numeracy Pooled Hales Females Pooled Males Females Constant AGE AGESQ Sl(1-3 yrs) S2(4 yrs) S3 (5-6 yrs) 54 (7+ yrs) .. RAVSC SEX ** Significant at 5%. *** Significant at 1%. females, suggests t h a t schooling r a t h e r than informal learning is f o r more important f o r mmerical a b i l i t y i n females. I The r e s u l t s i n Tables 7 and 8 suggest t h a t , o v e r a l l , l i t e r a c y is much more dependent on schooling than is numeracy. Even the informal learning through doing appears t o have p o s i t i v e e f f e c t s on l i t e r a c y i n Table 7, these disappear when d e t a i l c d non- linear schooling variables a r e introduced. Synthesis The determinants of schooling depend on household c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (such a s land ownership, and number of younger children), on v i l l a g e charac- t e r i s t i c s (such a s the proportion of c h i l d r e n 10-14 working, a v a i l a b i l i t y of wage work and access t o schools), and on individual c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e parents and the child. Reduced form equations i n Table 9 show t h a t f o r those 5-25, achieve- ment is always p o s i t i v e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e educational attainment of t h e f a t h e r and i n 5 of t h e 6 cases t o t h a t of the mother a s w e l l . -1/ Achievement is a l s o always negatively r e l a t e d t o the employment of children i n t h e village. Land is generally positively related t o achievement and the ilurnber of children under 5 is negatively s i g h i f i c a n t except f o r boys. Access t o schools is nott c o n s i s t e n t i n its significance. Upper p r i n s r y seems t o be the more serious - 6 c o n s t r a i n t and has a negative e f f e c t on attainment of a l l children and i n one -- L c2se £05 g i r l s . * * For individuals 14-25, we have measures of t h e i r i n w t e a b i l i t y a s well a s o t h e r variables. Table 10 shows t h e reduced fcrm equations f o r these -11 Other analysis suggests t h a t the e f f e c t of parental educations a c t s through the educational a s p t r a t i o n s they have f o r t h e i r children. Table 9: Reduced Form Equations for Educational Attainment for those 5-25 Grade Level Years of School Completed Relative To Average for Age Pooled Hales Females Pooled ?lales Females -- Constant -5.75 -5.99 -5.40 0.913 1.011 AGE ?.208*** 1.257** l.P7*** (15.66) (11.25) (10.89) -- AGESQ -0.033*** -0.033*** -0.032*** (14.14) (9.99) (10.00) -- -- HSCHYRS 0.127*** 0.118** 0.138*** 0.026*** 0.?21 (3.40) (2.13) (2.75) (3.06) (1.62) FSCHYRS 0.227*** 0.225** 0.231*** 0.041*** 0.036*** (6.10) (20.44) (4.44) (5.73) (2.85) PCd1014 -2.877*** -3.34*** -2.376*** -0.482*** -0.569*** (5.78) (4.80) (3.31) (4.18) (3.44) LAND78 0.021*** 0.019** 0.023** 0.004** 0.002 (3.15) (2.10) (2.33) (2.37) (1.05) CUNDRS -0.409*** -0.166 -6.536** -0.064* -0.016 (2.66) (0.70) (2.64) (1.81) (0.29) LPRIL'lD78 -0.150 -0.314** -0.023 -0.018 -0.050 (1.46) (2.01) (0.16) (0.75) (1.33) VPRIXD78 -0.035* -0.028 -0.042 -0.011** -0.086 (1.81) (0.97) (1.57) (2.41) (1.26) SEX 0.236* 0.039 - - . (1.83) x2 (1.29) 0.30 0.31 0.29 0.08 0.06 n 1 119 581 538 1119 581 * Significant a t 10%. ** Significant a t 5%. *** Significant a t 1%. Table 10: Reduced F o m Equations for Educational Attainment for those 14-25 Grade Level Years of School Completed Relative To Average for Age Pooled Hales Females Pooled ?lales Females Constant AGE AGESQ MSCHYRS FSCHYRS PVWM SEX * Significant at 10%. , r I ** Significant at 5%. - *** Significant at 1%. individuals. A b i l i t y ;s t h e most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r af f e c t ing t h e i r achieve- ment. Younger c h i l d r e n alvays have a negative e f f e c t on achievement but land- . ownership only has s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t s on males and a l l c h i l d r e n and not females. Only father's (not mother's) education is s i g n i f i c a n t f o r t h i s group. The v i l l a g e v a r i a b l e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of vage work, is not s i g n i f i - cant f o r females but is otherwise negatively s i g n i f i c a n t . Access t o schooling v a r i e s s u b s t a n t i a l l y by sex. Access t o lower primary school is not s i g n i f i - c a n t f o r females, but is f o r others. Access t o upper primary is only mar- g i n a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n one of two cases f o r females, but is highly s i g n i f i c a n t i n a l l o t h e r cases. This suggests t h a t access is not "the" binding c o n s t r a i n t i n most cases f o r g i r l s . X comparison of Table 10 with Table 3 indicates t h a t when the demand f o r schooling is entered i n t h e analysis it is always s i g n i f i - cant f o r g i r l s , but not boys and access t o upper and lower primary school a r e always s i g n i f i c a n t when demand is controlled.- Therefore it would seem t h a t even within t h e Northern Thai context where t h e r o l e and s t a t u s of women i s more equal than i n most developing and many developed countries there is a c o n s t r a i n t on t h e demand f o r t h e schooling f o r g i r l s which a f f e c t s t h e i r achievement more than did access. f q r those who a r e now 14-25. .Analysis of current enrollment of those 5-13 suggests t h a t demand is a c o n s t r a i n t on t h e - b enrollment of daughters. - the consequence of schooling i n d i c a t e s t h a t school's r o l e i n developing cogna'tive a b i l i t y d i f f e r s f o r l i t e r a c y and numeracy and f o r t h e e w l a t t e r varies by sex. I n a l l cases innate a b i l i t y has a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on cognitive a b i l i t y . POPULATION & Bt%Y RESOLXCES DZVISION DISCUSSION PAPERS [A * by t h e number i n d i c a t e s the paper is Bank- confidential o r otherwise r e s t r i c t e d . ] Oey A. Xeesook, "Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of Individuals and the Xeasurement of Lifetime Income". February 1981. Susan H. Cochrane, " m e Economics of F e r t i l i t y with Examples from Asia". February 1981. Rashid Faruqee, " Social I n f r a s t r u c t u r e and Services i n Zimbabve". February 1981. Richard Sabot, A. Berry, A. Hazlewood, J. Knight, J. Armitage and X. Boissiere, "Cognitive S k i l l s : Their Determinants and Influence on Earnings i n Two Poor Urban Economies." February 1981. Dean T. Jamison, Barbara Searle, Stephen Heyneman, and Klgus Ga:Lda "Improving Elementary Xathematics Education i n Nicaragua: An Experimental Study of the Impact o f Textbooks and Radio on Achievement". March 1981. Rashid Faruqee, "Analyzing the Impact of Health Services: Xarangwal and Other Experiences". a r c h 1981. J. 3. Knight and R. H. Sabot, "Labor Xarket Discrimination i n a Poor - . Urban Economy". March 1981. Oey A. Neesook, " I n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s between Demographic Factors and Income Distribution: Problems of Measurement, Description and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n " . A p r i l 1981. Susan H. Cochrane, Nirmala J o s h i and !?alpana Xandwani, " Fertility A t t i t u d e s and Behavior i n the Nepal Terai" . A p r i l 1981. i I t J.B. Knight and Richard Sabot, "The Role of the Firm i n Wage Deternination: An African Case Study". April 1981. J . B . Knight and Richard Sabot, "The Returns to Education: Increasing with Experience o r Decreasing with '*pansion?". - a r c h 1981. J . B . Knight and Xichard Sabot, " F r o m a i g r a n t s t o Proletarians: Employment Experience, Nobility and#ages i n Tanzania". Xarch 1981. I A. Berry and Richard Sabot, "Unemployment and Economic Development". April 1981. Rashid Faruqee and Ethna Johnson, "Health, Xutrition and Family Planning: A Survey of Experiments and Special P r o j e c t s i n India " . April 1931. Francois Orivel and Dean T. Jamison, "The Cost- Effectiveness of Distance Teaching Projects" . June 1981 81-16 Richard Sabot, 'Labor Force Growth, Employment and Earnings i n Egypt: 1966-1968". Yay 1981. 81-17 K.C. Zachariah, "Anomaly of tte F e r t i l i t y Decline i n Kerala: Social Development, Agrarian Reforns, o r t h e Family Planning Program'.. ?lay 1981. 81-18 Richard Sabot, A. Berry, A. Hazleuood, J. Knight, 2 . C o l l i e r , J. Annitage, Y. Boissiere, "Education Txpsnsion and Labor Narket Adjustment i n Kenya and Tanzania - A Backgroufid Paper". Flay 1981. 1 81-19 Xancy a i r d s a l l and Oey Xeesook, "Child Schooling, Xumber 3f Children ! and Intergenerational Transmission of Inequality: A Sirnu1a:ion". 1 %Y 1981. \ 81-20 Francois Orivel, "The Impact of Agricultural Extension Services: A 3evieu of =he Literature" . J u l y 1981. Also a v a i l a b l e i n French as "L'impact des Services de Vulgarisation Xgricole: Revue d e l a Littgrature". 81-21 Nancy B i r d s a l l and X. Louise Fox, "Why & a l e sEarn Xore: Locatfon, Job Preferences and Job Discrimination Among B r a z i l i a n Schoolteachers". 1981. 81-22 Althea H i l l , "The Cemographic S i t u t a t i o n i n Sub-Saharan Africa: A Discussion Paper". >lay 1981. 81-23* it. Sabot, A. Berry, A. Hazlewood, J. Knight, J. A m i t a g e , N. Boissiere "Does the Expansion of Education Compress the Structure of Wages and Xeduce t h e Inequality of ?a7? A P r e l i n i n a r y .halysis". J u l y 1981. 81-24* Nancy B i r d s a l l and Dean T. Jamison. "Income and Other Factors Influencing F e r t i l i t y and M o r t a l i t y I n China". October 1981. 81-25* Nancy B i r d s a l l , Sulekha Pate1 had K. C. Zachariah, ".Alternative Projections of the Chinese Population". June 1981. 81-26" Dean T. Jamison, T.J. Ho, and F.L. Trowbridge. "Food A v a i l a b i l i t y , and the N u t r i t i o n a l S t a t u s of Children i n China". October 19815 - L 81-27* Dean T. Jarnistn. "Child X a l n u t r i t i o n and School Retardation i n ChLna". - - September 1981. 8 d 83.-28 Deborah han no; .Ucmillan. "Language Policies f o r African Primary Education: Sumnary of the Anglophone Research L i t e r a t u r e . " J u l y 1981. 81-29 Tania Thevenin. "Les Implications Pedagogiques des Politiques de langues dans l'cnseignenent en Xirique: Une revue de l a l i t t e r a t u r e Francophone". June 1981. Also a v a i l a b l e i n English a s "Pedagogical Implications of Language Policy In African Schools: X Review of che Francophone Literature" . 81-30 Vicente Paqueo. "A Household Production Yodel of School Enrollment: X Probit Analysis of the 1978 Bicol Xultipurpose Survey Data". June 1981 81-31 Bryan L. Boulier and Vicente 0. Paqueo. "On the Theory and Xeasurements of the Determinants of Nortality". Sune 1981 81-32 Reynaldo %rtorell. "Nutrition and Health Status Indicators: Suggestions f o r Surveys of t h e Standard of L i v i n ~i n Developing Countries". June 1981. 81-39 it. Sabot., A.Berry, A. Hazelvood, J. Knight, J. h i t a g e , and X. Boissiere. "Correlates of Educational Attainment i n Tanzania". July 1981. 81-34 Susan H. Cochrane. "The ;?ccexminantu of Fertility and Child Survival i n the Nepal lerai". July 1981. 81-35 Joanne Leslie, B.G. Eaidya, and K. Nandwani. "Prevalence and Correlates of Childhood Malnutrition i n the TeraL Region of Xepal". July 1981. 81-36 R. *Yansell Prothero. "Perspectives on Popdation Xobility i n West Africa". August 1981. el-37 Tinothy !Cing. "Topulation Growth, International Resource Transfers, - . and International Higration". August 1981 81-38 Timothy King. "Imidqration from Developing Countries: Soue Philosophical Issues". dugust 1981.. 81-39 X. Sabot and J. Knight. "Why :