19638 19638 19638 19638 ­ , . , 1948 ., 190 , , , . , , . 870 . . , , , . : , , , , . , , , . . - . : Scherfigsvej 8, DK-2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. - , , . , , - , , - . , , , . , , . Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control Copyright © 1999 by The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. : © 2000 / 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, . K. 20433, U.S.A. This book was originally published by the World Bank in English as Curbing the Epidemic: Governments and the Economics of Tobacco Control in 1999. This Russian language translation is not an official World Bank translation. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the translation and accepts no responsibility whatsoever for any consequence of its interpretation or use. " : " 1999 . . - , . , - . , , , - . : - Joe Losos, Health Canada ISBN 92 890 4339 3 . ix xi xv 1 1. 17 17 19 - 19 22 22 2. 27 27 28 29 , ? 31 - 32 32 , 33 37 3. , , ? 39 40 , 41 , 43 47 ? 50 4. 53 53 : , , 63 74 v vi 5. 79 79 86 6. 91 ? 91 ? 104 7. 109 110 112 114 . : 119 B. 121 . 125 D. ( ) 129 135 139 153 1.1 18 1.2 21 1.3 24 2.1 28 2.2 34 2.3 35 4.1 , , (1996 .) 55 4.2 , 57 4.2 , (1989­1995 .) 57 4.2b (15 ) , (1970­1989 .) 57 4.3 66 vii 4.4 72 5.1 87 6.1 99 7.1 , 50 111 1.1 20 2.1 30 4.1 , , 10% 60 4.2 , , 75 4.3 76 5.1 ­ 81 6.1 95 6.2 106 1.1 ? 23 4.1 : 60 4.2 70 6.1 97 7.1 115 7.2 117 " " . , , , . - , /- , - . . Marc Danzon, , ix 500 . . , 2030 , 10 . (), , . , , , , . . . , . , . . , . . , , . . xi xii , . , . 1991 , , . , . . , (), , (), . , . , . , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . . , , . xiii , , . David de Ferranti, Jie Chen -, , , : Prabhat Jha. : Frank Chaloupka (), Phyllida Brown, Son Nguyen, Jocelyn Severino-Marquez, Rowena van der Merwe Ayda Yurekli. William Jack, Nicole Klingen, Maureen Law, Phillip Musgrove, Thomas E. Novotny, Mead Over, Kent Ranson, Michael Walton Abdo Yazbeck . , Howard Barnum. Derek Yach, ­ Michael Ericksen. Helen Saxenian, Christopher Lovelace David de Ferranti. Richard Feachem . . Dan Kagan, Don Reisman Brenda Mejia. (. ). , , . . ­ , : . 1997 . 10- () . . , . , , , , . , , ( ) . () , . 1998 . 1. . , , 2. , , . xv xvi 1. Abedian, Iraj, R. Van Der Merwe, N. Wilkins, and P.Jha. eds. 1998. The Economics of Tobacco Control: Towards an Optimal Policy Mix. University of Cape Town, South Africa. 2. Tobacco Control Policies in Developing Countries. Jha, Prabhat and F. Chaloupka, eds. Oxford University Press. . . 2030 , , , 10 ­ , . , , , . 2020 . . , . ­ , , , ­ , . , , ; ; . , . , , , , , . , . , , , . , 1 2 , . ; , . , . 1,1 . 2025 . , 1,6 . , . . . . 10 . , , . , . . -, . , . , , , , , , . 10 , , , . 3 , . : , , 98% . . , , , . , , 20­25 . , , , - , , . , , . , , , . - , - , . , . , , , , , . , . 4 ? , , . : -, , , -, , . , ­ , ­ , . , , ; . , , . , . , , . -, , , . . , 1996 . 61% , " ". , , , . , . 5 -, . , . , . , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , , . -, . , , . , , , . , "" . , , , . , , - . , , 6 15% . , 6 . , , . . , , , . , , , , , , , , , , . , , , , , , . , , , , , ­ , , . , . . , " " , , , . , , . , , , , , 7 . , . , , . , , , , , . . , , . - , , ­ , . . , . , , , , , . . , , , . , . . , 8 , . . , . , . , . , , . 10% , , 4% 8% , . , , . , , 10% , 1995 . 40 . , , 10 . , . . , , , . , , , . , , , , . 9 , , , (, ). , , , , , . . . . , . ; , , , , . , . , " " . , , , . 7%, . , , , , . , , , , 10 , 1995 . 23 . 5 . , . , , . , , , () . , , . . , , , , , . , , , . , , , . . , . , , , . , . , , 11 , , , . , , . , , , , ­ , , ­ . , , , , . , , , , , . . , , . , . . . , . . , , , 12 . , , , , . , , , . , . , . , , , . , . , , . , , . , , , 10% , , 7%, . , , , . , , , , . , , . 13 , . , . , ­ . , , , . , . ? , , - . , . , , , , . , . , 5 17 . 1. ­ , . . , 14 , , . , , , . . , , , 10% 5%, 5%, - , 100 . . , . , . , . , , . , , . , . , , . , , , 50 , . , 15 , , . : 1. , , . : , . , , : (1) , , . ; (2) , , , (3) , . 2. ­ , , ­ ; , , ; , , . , . 16 , , , , . , : 21- . 1. . . 1 , 19- . . , 1,1 . , . 80% . - - , , 2025 1,6 . . . , . , - , 85% . , , , . . 1970 (. . 1.1). 1970 1990 , , , 1990- . , 17 18 . , 20- 55% , 1990- 28%. . , , , , , 1990- . ( ) . 1.1. : . 1997 . : , , . . . , , , . , , 1980 , , , , 1991 . 10% , , . 19 , , , , . - 80 . - - 1. . 1.1, , , . , ( , ), 1995 . 59% 26% , .. , . T , - ­ 59%, 4% . - , , . , . 30­40 , , , , , 2. , . , , 75% 1955 . 28% 1990 . , , , 60% 1955 48% 1990 . - . , , - 10% 12% 20 1.1. 15 , , 1995 . (%) - - - - - (. ) (%) 59 4 32 401 35 T 59 26 41 148 13 40 21 30 95 8 44 5 25 40 3 () 20 1 11 86 8 () 20 3 12 96 8 , 33 10 21 67 6 49 9 29 933 82 39 22 30 209 18 47 12 29 1142 100 : . : , . 1997 . : . , . ; - : 35 40%. - - ­ . , , , . , . , - 21 , - . , (. 1.2). , , , , , . 1.2. () : Gajalakshmi, C. K., Jha, S. Nguyen, and A. Yurekli. Patterns of Tobacco Use, and Health Consequences. . , , , - , - . , , 22 - . , , , , , , , . , , , ­ , , . , , , - . 25 , (. 1.1 . 1.3); 8 10 11­19 . , , -, 20­25 , . , 1984 1996 15 19 , . . , , , , , , , . , . 23 1.1. ? , . - , - - - , , - - , - , , . , , - . -, - - - . - , , . , : (1) - . - - , , - , - , 20 1995 ., , . - , (2) - , -- , - - 30 , - . , . , - , - , , - , (1) (2) - - , , . 14 000 15 000 . - - - 68 000­84 000 . , - , - 82 000 99 000 - . - : - . , . 24 30% ­ . , 1993 . 2% , 5% , 10% 1997 . 1.3. , : Chinese Academy of Preventive Medicine. 1997. Smoking in China: 1996 National Prevalence Survey of Smoking Pattern. Beijing. Science and Technology Press; Gupta, P.C., 1996. "Survey of Sociodemographic Characteristics of Tobacco Use Among 99,598 Individuals in Bombay, India, Using Handheld Computers." Tobacco Control 5:114-20, and U. S. Surgeon General Reports, 1989 and 1994. 25 1. D. , : 1) ; 2) (, ); 3) ; 4) ; 5) ; 6) , 7) , (). 2. . , , - . , , . 2 . , . : ­ ; , . , , . . , , , ; , ; , "" . , , , , . . , , , , , (. 2.1). , , . . , , , 27 28 . , 16 , , . . 2.1. - : McNeill, A. D. and others. 1989. "Nicotine Intake in Young Smokers: Longitudinal Study of Saliva Cotinine Concentrations". American Journal of Public Health 79(2): 172-75. , , . , . , , , 98% . , 4 . . 29 ; 2030 ., , , 10 . , .. , , , , , , . , - 500 . , , , ­ , 20 25 . , - , (. 2.1). 1990 . , , 2030 . . , , 100 . . , - , . , , . , . - . 1915 1950 ., 1945 . - 1930- 1950- , 1955 . : 1980- 11 1940- . 30 2.1. (. ) , 2000 . 2030 . 2 3 2 7 : World Health Organization. 1999. Making a Difference. World Health Report. 1999. Geneva, Switzerland. , , , 1950 ., . 12% . , , . , , , , 12% . , , . , , . , , 1% , 2% . , , , , 40 . - , . 1970- , 31 20 , , , , , , . , ? , , , , , , , 1 . . 20 , , , , . , , . . , , , , , . , , , , , . , , . , , . "" "", , . 32 , , . - , . , , , , , , , . , , , , . , . ; , - . . , , , , , , , . - , . , , 33 - ( , ) , ­ , , . 1996 . 26- . 52%, .. . , , , , . , , . 28% 20% (. 2.2). , , , - . (. 2.3). , , . , , . , , , 34 2.2. , , 1996 . : : . : Bobak, Martin, P. Jha, M. Jarvis, and S. Nguyen. Poverty and Tobacco. . , , 35% . . , , , , . , . 63% , , , , . 35 2.3. , - () : - I ( ) V ( ). I II V - . : Bobak, Martin, P. Jha, M. Jarvis, and S. Nguyen. Poverty and Tobacco. . , , , - , . , , , , . , , , , . 36 , . , , , , , , . -, 35 , , , . 35 44 , , . , , , . , . ; , , . , , , . 3 , , ? , . , , . , . , , , . : -, , , -, , . ­ , , ­ , , . ; . , "", , , . , , , , . , , . 39 40 : < -, , , . ­ . < -, , . , , . , - , . < -, , , , . , , . , , , , . . , , . , , 61% , 1996 ., , . , , 41 ? , , . , . , , . , , , , , . , . , , , . , , , , , , , . , , . , 1995 . " , ". " ", " " " ". , 27% . , , , . , 1, , 42 , . 15­16- , , . , , 13- , . , , , . , , , , , . , , , , . - . , . , , , , 60% , , , 95%. , . 25 , 55 , , , . , , , . , -. , ; , , 43 ? ; . , . , , , , . , , , , . . -, , . , , , , . -, , , . , , , 15- , , 125 , , 125 . , 10 - , 10 - , 30 , . -, , , , . , , . , , 44 , , , , . , , . , . -, - . , 2, , , , . , . , , - , . , , , . , , . , . , , 6 15% . , , . , , ­ , , , , . , , , , , 45 ? . , , , (), . , , , . , , , ­ - . -, , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , . , , , , , . , , , 46 , , . . , , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , 65% , 6% . , , . , , . , , , 65 , , - , . , , , . , , , , , 47 ? , 44% , 2% . , , , , . , . , , , , , 1. , , . , , . . 10 , , . , , . , , , . , , , , , . , . , 48 , , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , , . , , . , . , . , , , , , . , - , , . , , . , , , . , , 49 ? , , , . , , . , , . , (, ), , . , , , , , , . . , , , , . . , , . , , . , , , , , , . . , , , . 50 . , , , , . , , . ? , , . , , . , , . , , , . , , . , . , . 6. , , , , . , . , , 51 ? . 4 , , 5 , . 1. , , , , - . , . 4 , , . , . - : , , , - . 1776 . "- " - , " - ; , - , ". , " , , "1. , , , . , . , . , . , . , , -, 53 54 , - , . , , - , - , . - . , 8, - - . , , . . . . , , - , , , . , , - , - , , . - , , . - . , , , - , - . . , ­ , , 55 . . - (. 4.1). - . - . 4.1. , , , 1996 . : . , , - , . , : - , , - , , . , , , 56 , , , . , 1982 1992 . , (. 4.2). (. 4.2), . , , - , . ? , - , , - . , - , , , , . - - . - , , - . , , . , , , , , - . , - , . , 10- , 5%, ­ 0,5. , . 57 4.2. , 4.2a. , , 1989­1995 . 4.2b. (15 ) , 1970­1989 . : . : 4.2a: . 4.2b: Saloojee, Yussuf. 1995. "Price and Income Elasticity of Demand for Cigarettes in South Africa." In Slama, K. ed., Tobacco and Health. New York, NY: Plenum Press; and Townsend, Joy. 1998. "The Role of Taxation Policy in Tobacco Control." In Abedian, I., and others, eds. The Economics of Tobacco Control. Cape Town, South Africa: Applied Fiscal Research Centre, University of Cape Town. 58 , , , . , , 10- 4% ( - 0,4). , , , 10% , , ­0,6 ­1,0. - . , , ­ 0,8. , , . , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , , , , . , , , 18 24 ­ 0,6, , . , , , , . 59 . -, , , , -, , . . 4.1. , , , . , , , . , , 1995 . , , 10% , 40 . , , , . , , , , , , ­ 10 . 3% , ­ . , 4 ­ (. 4.1). 60 4.1. , , - 10% , 1995 , () T -16 -4 -6 -1,5 -4 -1,0 -2 -0,4 () -3 -0,7 () -2 -0,4 , -3 -0,7 -36 -9 -4 -1 -40 -10 : . : Ranson, Kent, P. Jha, F. Chaloupka, and A Yurekli. Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Price Increases and Other Tobacco Control Policy Interventions. . 4.1. : -, 80 , , - - , , - ( 1, (. . 1.1). , C). -, - , , , , - (. . .) 61 4.1. - , - . - -, , , - - . , - - , , - - 60 . , . -, - , - . - , , - , . - , . , - . - , , . - - , - - - - , - , ­ 0,4, ­ , , , - ­ 0,8. , - - , , , , - - , - , , - . , - - ­ , , - , . - , , - - , , . , (. . .) 62 4.1. , , , , , - 75 125% - , - , - . , , , , , . , - , , "" . , , , (, ). , , . , , , . , ­ , . , , , , . , , , . , , , 63 , , . , ­ , , , . , , ­ . , , , , . , , . , : , . . . : , , , . , , ; , . , , , . 64 , , , . , . , , , , , . , . . 1950 . 45% . 1990 . 95%. 40 25%. " " , , . , , , , , , . , , . , . , 1930- 1970- , , , 65 1964 ., , 30% . , . , 1960 1994 , , . , . . , . , , , , , . " " , . , , , . , "" ( ) "" ( ). , , , , . , 66 , , . 1960- . 1991 . 77 , , . 4.3. 4.3. : Institute of Medicine. Growing Up Tobacco Free: Preventing Nicotine Addiction in Children and Youths. 1994. National Academy Press. Washington, D.C. , , 8% . , 1994 . , . (58%) , , , . 67 , , , . , . , , , , . , , , , , , . 1990- , 30% , , . - 3% , ; , 16% , , 14% , . . 1995 . . , , , , . 1996 . , , , , . , . , , , , , , , , . 1954 1981 68 , 11% . , . , . , , , , . , , -, . , . , , . , , - - . , , , . , , . , , , , . . . , , . , , , . 69 , , . . -, , ; , , , , . , 6% , 50% , . , , , , . , , , , , , . -, , , , , , . , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , . 70 . , , , , . , , , . 1972 . , , . 22 , 1970 1992 ., , , . , , , 6% . , , , (. 4.2) 7%. 100 , , , . (. 4.4). , . 4.2. 1989 ., - 1990 . - , . , - , , . (. . .) 71 4.2. , , - 30 2001 . , - < , - - - . 1991 . - . < ( - . - 1992 , 1996 ) - - . , , < :, - . - , - 1997 . , , - , - , - 1 2006 . - - - . , - , , - 1998 . - , , ( . ) - . , . 2006 . , - . - < - , - - . - - . 72 , , ­ , , . , - . , - . , - , , , - , , . - , . 4.4. : 102 , , 15 64 , , 1980­82 1990­92 . , , . , . : Saffer, Henry. The Control of Tobacco Advertising and Promotion. . 73 , , . , , . , , , . , , , . . ­ , . , , 4­10%. , , , . . , , , , , , . , 4.1. , . , - , 2 10% . 74 , , , . , 1995 . 23 . , , 2% (. . 4.2). , , , 5 . . , . , , , , , , () - . , , . , . , , (. 4.3). . , . , , . 75 4.2. , , (.) , 1995 . - , - , - - : : 2% 10% 2 % 10% T -8 -40 -2 -10 -3 -15 -0,7 -3 -2 -10 -0,5 -2 -0,8 -4 -0,2 -1 () -2 -9 -0,3 -2 () -2 -10 -0,4 -2 , -1 -7 -0,4 -2 -19 -93 -4 -22 -4 -21 -1 -5 -23 -114 -5 -27 : . : Ranson, Kent, P. Jha, F. Chaloupka, and A. Yurekli. Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Price Increases and Other Tobacco Control Policy Interventions. . , . - - , , , . , , , . , , , , , . . 76 4.3. - , 6 ( 3 10 ) 2 3 6 (, 8 ) : Raw, Martin, and others. 1999. , Cochrane. . , . , , , , , , - , . , 3 000 . , : 1996 , , 1998 150%. ; , , , , , , , , . . , , , 77 . . , . , , , . , , , , , . . , , , . ­ . , . . , , , . , , . , , , , , , . , , . , , 78 . "" , , , 6% , , , 6 . , 1995 ., , 1 . . , 25% , , 29 . 1995 . , 7 . . 1. Smith, Adam. Wealth of Nations. 1776. Version edited by Edwin Canaan, 1976. University of Chicago Press, Chicago. 2. , , , ( ) . , , 0,50 ., 0,5 4 = 2 . 2 . () + 0,50 . ( ) = 2,50 . , , , , , , 80 100% . 5 , , . , . , , . , , , , , , . , . , - , , , - . , . - , (), - 80%. - . , 79 80 , . , . -, , , - . -, : - , . -, - . -, . , , , - - . . - . , , , ­ . , , , , , . 100 , 80 . - : 42% , , , , 24%. 20 90% (. . 5.1). - 30 15%, 40 60%. 4 6%, . 81 5.1. ­ 1997 , - (1000 - - - ( ) (%) (1000 ) (%) (%) (%) - 1994 . 1995 .) 3 390,0 51,5 42,12 1 880,0 38,4 2,9 4,7 0,68 746,4 4,0 9,27 328,4 6,7 35,5 7,4 0,55 623,7 18,1 7,75 420,2 8,6 23,2 c 0,44 576,6 30,5 7,16 329,5 6,7 77,0 0,2 2,55 296,0 57,7 3,68 323,0 6,6 89,3 0,5 1,17 192,1 8,0 2,39 99,3 2,0 109,7 c 23,05 184,3 15,2 2,29 217,5 4,4 10,2 27,6 0,42 158,6 61,7 1,97 122,3 2,5 74,2 c 60,64 132,5 -2,2 1,65 67,3 1,4 74,5 12,8 2,05 131,4 0,3 1,63 47,5 1,0 78,7 18,3 0,04 123,2 50,3 1,53 71,0 1,5 60,6 5,1 0,59 86,3 -14,0 1,07 45,9 0,9 1,6 c 0,08 78,2 124,3 0,97 48,5 1,0 53,5 58,3 5,40 71,1 -0,5 0,88 28,5 0,6 24,0 12,6 0,04 69,3 17,4 0,86 47,0 1,0 48,5 15,3 0,11 68,5 -13,8 0,85 25,6 0,5 0,5 145,4 0,04 60,9 8,7 0,76 29,4 0,6 17,2 18,3 0,17 54,4 -44,8 0,68 27,2 0,6 8,4 26,2 0,02 44,3 -35,1 0,55 25,4 0,5 31,8 8,3 0,11 . . . 82 5.1. () - - (1000 - - (1000 ) (%) (%) ( ) (%) (%) - 1994 . 1995 .) 44,0 -26,7 0,55 50,3 1,0 c 16,1 0,03 42,3 0,1 0,53 13,3 0,3 53,9 126,7 0,06 41,7 -3,3 0,52 19,0 0,4 6,9 66,4 0,12 37,0 117,6 0,46 59,0 1,2 13,5 0,8 35,8 -15,8 0,45 17,2 0,4 61,4 6,7 6,90 32,0 0,40 36,0 0,7 0,04 30,3 41,7 0,38 21,2 0,4 58,1 2,2 5,26 30,0 0,37 22,0 0,4 5,44 30,0 -33,3 0,37 12,0 0,2 76,7 3,3 6,96 29,0 -1,4 0,34 14,9 0,3 41,5 55,5 0,31 25,1 15,1 0,31 55,8 c 4,53 8 048,4 25,9 100,0 4 893,8 100,0 25,3 24,4 a. b. c. 0,1 % : van der Merwe, Rowena, and others. The Supply-side Effects of Tobacco Control Policies. . ( , (), ). 83 , - . , , , , - 70% . : , 23% , , 61%. ­ , , , , ­ - , . , , , . - , , , , - . , 6,5 , . - . -, . - , . -, - , . -, . -, , . , , ; - , , . . , , , , . - 84 , , . , , , , . . , ­ , - , , ­ , . , , - , - . . . - , , . , , , . ­ ­ - . , . , - . , 1%. - . , . , - . , - . , , 85 , . , , - , , - . . , . - , , - . , . , . , , , , - . , , - . 1, . , - , , . , . - , , . , - (), . , . XX , 86 , . 1990 . , . , , , - , , , , - . , , - , . , - , . - , , . . 30% , 355 . , - . , - . , , . . - , , - , . . , , , . 87 , , , , , - . , , , , , (. 5.1). 5.1. : Merriman, David, A. Yurekli, and F. Chaloupka. "How Big Is the Worldwide Cigarette Smuggling Problem?" NBER Working Paper. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, . , . 88 . : 10 . , , 200 . . . , , 1 . ., , () . , , , . . , , , , , B, C, D, . , , . ­ " ", , - . , , , - , , , . , , . , . , . , . , , , ­ , ­ 89 , . , , , , , . . - . - . -, - , , , , , , . . -, , , , . -, . . -, , , - . - - , , . -, - - , , - , . . (). -, , , , . , , , 90 . . , , 55 . . , , . , , , , . 6 , , , . - - , , . , , . , . ? . , ? , . , , . , , , , . . , 92 , , , , . , , , , , , . , , . , 33 . . , , . , , . 15 . 3,5 . . 100 . . , : , , 120 . , ­ 135 , , , , . , . 1% . : 8% , , , , 2,5 5%. , , , . , , , , , , , , , . 93 , . . -, . , - , , , , , . -, , , , . . , , , , . , , . , 1990 . 100 . ( ), , , , , . , 1993 2000 . 20 ., . , 94 , . , . , . . . , , , , , . 18%, . . . , , , . , . , , , "" . , , , . , , . ­ ­ , , , , (. 6.1). , , , . -, , , , , , . , 95 , 12% . , , , . 6.1. - - , - - (1992) 0,1% - "" (1993) 0% - "" +0,5% (1990) 40%, " " (1980) -12,4% , "" +0,4% (1995) , " " +0,3% - (1989) , - "" , +0,1% - (1992) , - "" (1994) +18,7% - "" : Buck, David and others, 1995; Irvine, I.J. and W.A. Sims, 1997; McNicoll, I.H. and S. Boyle, 1992; van der Merwe, Rowena, and others, background paper; Warner, K.E., and G.A. Fulton, 1994; Warner, K.E. and others, 1996. 96 , , , , (. 6.1). ? , , . - , - - , , - . , - , , , . , , . - , , . - - , - 138 80 . . . 1% - 0,6 0,9% (. . 6.1). , , - , 10% 7%, - . , , , , - . , - , - , , , - , . , 97 , , , , -, . 6.1. - , . - . . , , , - , , - , , , - , . , . , - , , , - , . , , - . , - - , - . , , . , - - , - . - , , . , (. . .) 98 6.1. , , , , , - - . - , . - . - . , . , , , . , ­ - , , - , . , , , , , - , , , . , - . - , . , , - . , 99 , . ? , . , . , , , . , , , , 6.1. , 1971­1995 . : Townsend, Joy. "The Role of Taxation Policy in Tobacco Control". In Abedian, I., and others, eds. The Economics of Tobacco Control. Cape Town, South Africa: Applied Fiscal Research Centre, University of Cape Town. 100 , . . , . . 1980- 1990- , . C 1979 1991 , , . . , . , . . 1990- 450%. , 38 50%. , , 6% , . 20%, . , . . , , , , . , , , , . . 101 ? , , , . , , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , . , . , , . 102 , , , . , , , , , , . , . ­ ­ . , . , , 10% 5%, 5%. , 100 . . ? , , , . , , , , . , . , , , . , , , , , , . 103 , - . , , , , - - , . , , - . c , - . - , . - () , - . , - , , . , , , - . , , . , , , , , , . - , , , , , , , - . . , , , , , , , , , . , , 104 , , . , . , , . - , , . . , , , , . ? , . , , , . , , , - . 1993 . "World Development Report, Investing in Health", . , 20 80 . ( " , " ­ "disability-adjusted life year", DALY)1. , 4: , , , , 105 , . , . , 4.1. . , , - , . , - , . , , , . (. 6.2) , - , . , - , - 10% 5 . ( 17 . ). - - , , , - , . . , , 68 . . - , - , , , 30 50 . 50 100 . . 106 6.2. (. DALY) . (- - 10% 5% ) 25 % 3 13 53 212 338 355 T 4 15 64 257 227 247 10 42 173 690 241 295 7 28 120 482 223 260 3 10 32 127 289 298 , 2 8 34 136 195 206 4 17 68 272 276 297 161 645 1347 5388 746 1160 : , 30- ; 30- . , 0,005 % 0,02 % . : Ranson, Kent, P. Jha, F. Chaloupka, and A. Yurekli. Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Price Increases and Other Tobacco Control Policy Interventions. . - . , - . , - , . , , , , , , , , . 107 , , , , . - . , - , . 50 2,50 . - , , , . 1993 . "- " , , - , 4 . 7 . - . - . 1. () ­ , , ( , , , , , ), , . ­ . 7 : . , , , . , , . , - , . . , , , . - - , - . . , , . . , , - (. 7.1 7.2 A). , , , , . , 3 , , , , ( ), 109 110 . , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , ­ (. 7.1). , , , . , , , , . , , : , , , , , , , . , . , . 111 7.1. , 50 1950­2050 . : Peto ., 1950 2000 . 60 . . 10 . 1990 2000 . . , 1990 . - , , - 1950 . 2000 Peto ( [1998]). : Peto, Richard and others. 1994. Mortality from Smoking in Developed Countries 1950­2000. 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( ) . , , , 119 120 . , , . , , , , . ; ; ; . , , . . , , , (), . , , . , . B "Tobacco Control Policies in Developing Countries" ( ) Prabhat Jha Frank Chaloupka. Bobak, Martin, Prabhat Jha, Son Nguyen, and Martin Jarvis. Poverty and Tobacco. ( ). Chaloupka, Frank, Tei-Wei Hu, Kenneth E. Warner, Rowena van der Merwe, and Ayda Yurekli. Taxation of Tobacco Products. ( ). Gajalakshmi, C.K., Prabhat Jha, Son Nguyen, and Ayda Yurekli. Patterns of Tobacco Use, and Health Consequences. ( ). Jha, Prabhat, Phillip Musgrove, and Frank Chaloupka. Is There a Rationale for Government Intervention? ( ?) Jha, Prabhat, Fred Paccaud, Ayda Yurekli, and Son Nguyen. Strategic Priorities for Governments and Development Agencies in Tobacco Control. ( ). Joossens, Luk, David Merriman, Ayda Yurekli, and Frank Chaloupka. Issues in Tobacco Smuggling. ( ). Kenkel, Donald, Likwang Chen, Teh-Wei Hu, and Lisa Bero. Consumer Information and Tobacco Use. ( ). 121 122 Lightwood, James, David Collins, Helen Lapsley, Thomas Novotny, Helmut Geist, and Rowena van der Merwe. Counting the Costs of Tobacco Use. ( ). Merriman, David, Ayda Yurekli, and Frank Chaloupka. How Big Is the World-wide Cigarette Smuggling Problem? ( ?) Novotny, Thomas E., Jillian C. Cohen, and David Sweanor. Smoking Cessation, Nicotine Replacement Therapy, and the Role of Government in Supporting Cessation. ( , ). Peck, Richard, Frank Chaloupka, Prabhat Jha, and James Lightwood. Cost-Benefit Analysis of Tobacco Consumption. ( ). Ranson, Kent, Prabhat Jha, Frank Chaloupka, and Ayda Yurekli. Effectiveness and Cost-effectiveness of Price Increases and Other Tobacco Control Policy Interventions. ( ). Saffer, Henry. The Control of Tobacco Advertising and Promotion. ( ). Sunley, Emil M., Ayda Yurekli, and Frank Chaloupka. The Design, Administration, and Potential Revenue of Tobacco Excises: A Guide for Developing and Transition Countries. (, : ). Taylor, Allyn L., Frank Chaloupka, Emmanuel Guindon, and Michaelyn Corbett. Trade Liberalization and Tobacco Consumption. ( ). Van der Merwe, Rowena, Fred Gale, Thomas Capehart, and Ping Zhang. The Supply-side Effects of Tobacco Control Policies. ( ). 123 Woollery, Trevor, Samira Asma, Frank Chaloupka, and Thomas E. Novotny. Other Measures to Reduce the Demand for Tobacco Products. ( ). Yurekli, Ayda, Son Nguyen, Frank Chaloupka, and Prabhat Jha. Statistical Annex. ( ) C , . . . , . A. : Iraj Abedian, Samira Asma, Peter Anderson, Enis Baris, Howard Barnum, Edith Brown-Weiss, Neil Collishaw, Michael Ericksen, Christine Godfrey, Robert Goodland, Ramesh Govindaraj, Vernor Griese, Jack Henningfield, Chee-Ruey Hsieh, Teh-Wei Hu, Gregory Ingram, Paul Isenman, Steven Jaffee, Dean Jamison, Michael Linddal, Alan Lopez, Dorsati Madani, Will Manning, Jacob Meerman, Cyril Muller, Philip Musgrove, Richard Peck, Richard Peto, Markku Pekurinen, John Ryan, David Sweanor, John Tauras, Joy Townsend, Adam Wagstaff, Kenneth Warner, Trevor Woollery, Russell Wilkins, Witold Zatonski, Barbara Zolty Mitch Zeller B. 1. 27 1997 ., , , . . : Thomas Novotny : Iraj Abedian, Frank Chaloupka, Simon Chapman, Kishore Chaudhry, Neil Collishaw, Vera Luisa da Costa y Silva, Prakash Gupta, Laksmiati Hanafiah, Natasha Herrera, Teh-Wei Hu, 126 Desmond Johns, Prabhat Jha, Luk Joossens, Ken Kyle, Eric LeGresley, Michelle Lobo, Judith Mackay, Patrick Masobe, Kathleen McCormally, Zofia Mielecka-Kubien, , Alex Papilaya, Terry Pechacek, Milton Roemer, Ruth Roemer, Lu Rushan, Cecilia Sepulveda, David Simpson, Paramita Sudharto, Joy Townsend, Sharad Vaidya, Rowena Van Der Merwe, Kenneth Warner, Shaw Watanabe, Witold Zatonski 2. (20 1998 .) " : ", , . . : Paul Isenman : Iraj Abedian, Judith Bale, Enis Baris, Frank Chaloupka, David Collins, Neil Collishaw, Brian Easton, Helmut Geist, Chee-Ruey Hsieh, Teh-Wei Hu, Prabhat Jha, Luk Joossens, Kamal Nayan Kabra, Pamphil Kweyuh, Helen Lapsley, Judith Mackay, Eddie Maravanyika, Sergiusz Matusia, Tho-mas Novotny, Fred Paccaud, Richard Peck, Krzysztof Przewozniak, Yussuf Saloojee, Conrad Shamlaye, Timothy Stamps, Krisela Steyn, Frances Stillman, David Sweanor, Joy Townsend, Rowena Van Der Merwe, Kenneth Warner Derek Yach 3. 22­24 1998 ., , . . : Felix Gutzwiller Fred Paccaud : Iraj Abedian, Nisha Arunatilleke, Martin Bobak, Phyllida Brown, Frank Chaloupka, David Collins, Jacques Cornuz, Christina Czart, Nishan De Mel, Jean-Pierre Gervasoni, Peter Heller, Tomasz Hermanowski, Alberto Holly, Teh-Wei Hu, Paul Isenman, Dean Jamison, Prabhat Jha, Luk Joossens, Jim Lightwood, Helen Lapsley, David Merriman, Phillip Musgrove, Son Nguyen, Richard 127 Peck, Markku Pekurinen, Thomson Prentice, Kent Ranson, Marie- France Raynault, John Ryan, Henry Saffer, David Sweanor, John Tauras, Allyn Taylor, Joy Townsend, Rowena van der Merwe, Kenneth Warner, Trevor Woollery Ayda Yurekli 4. 17 1999 . , , , , . : Michael Ericksen : Iraj Abedian, Samira Asma, Judith Bale, Enis Baris, Phyllida Brown, Frank Chaloupka, Peter Heller, Paul Isenman, Prabhat Jha, Nancy Kaufman, Thomas Loftus, Judith Mackay, Caryn Miller, Rose Nathan, Son Nguyen, Fred Paccaud, Anthony So, Roberta Walburn, Kenneth Warner, Trevor Woollery, Derek Yach Ayda Yurekli. D. 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