Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 95505-TD THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD JOINT STAFF ADVISORY NOTE ON THE 2013 MONITORING REPORT OF THE NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2013-2015 April 6, 2015 Global Practice -- Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management, GMFDR Country Department AFCW3 Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. TABLE OF CONTENTS I. OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................... 1 II. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE ............................................................................. 2 III. PROGRESS AGAINST NDP OBJECTIVES ....................................................................... 4 A. Developing production capacities and job opportunities .................................................. 4 B. Mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion............................................................................................................................ 5 C. Protecting the environment and combating climate change.............................................. 6 D. Strengthening governance ................................................................................................. 7 IV. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS, MONITORING AND EVALUATION ......... 8 V. CONCLUSIONS, RISKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ................................................... 9 INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND AND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION THE REPUBLIC OF CHAD 2013 Monitoring Report of the National Development Plan 2013-2015 Joint Staff Advisory Note Prepared by Staffs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) Approved by David Robinson (IMF) and Paul Noumba Um (IDA) April 6, 2015 I. OVERVIEW 1. Chad approved its National Development Plan (NDP) for the period 2013-15 in May 2013. The NDP is considered the third poverty reduction strategy for Chad, following the ones adopted for the periods 2003-6 and 2008-11. It focuses on a sensible set of priorities, notably on (i) developing production capacities and job opportunities, (ii) mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion, (iii) protecting environment and combating climate change, and (iv) strengthening governance. The NDP was built on lessons learned from the previous poverty reduction strategies and benefited from a wide-ranging process of consultations. The main features of the NDP were discussed in the Joint Staff Advisory Note distributed to Boards of Executive Directors on June 20, 2013. 1 Staffs acknowledged in that note the comprehensiveness and relevance of the strategy to accelerate growth and reduce poverty, while underscoring the lack of intra- and inter-sectoral prioritization, as well as the need for greater elaboration of the Government’s plans to strengthen public investment management and protect government finances against oil price fluctuations. 2. The NDP includes a Priority Action Plan (PAP) and a Results Framework (RF). The PAP identifies, for each policy area, a list of actions and indicators for monitoring their implementation. Each action has been budgeted for each of the three years. The total cost of implementing the PAP was estimated by the government back in 2013 at CFAF 3,727 billion 1 International Development Association and International Monetary Fund (2013), The Republic of Chad: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the National Development Plan 2013-15, Report #78692-TD, Washington D.C and EBD/13/50 issued to the Board on July 26, 2013. 1 (US$7.4 billion), excluding salaries, goods and services, with an estimated financing gap of CFAF 1,577 billion (US$3 billion). During an international conference held in Paris in June 2014, donors made financial pledges sufficient to close the NDP’s financing needs. The RF retains 24 strategic indicators and 65 intermediary indicators, for which baseline and targets were retained, though not necessarily for each of the three years of the NDP. The RF also monitors all floating completion point conditions retained for priority sectors under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) initiative. 2 3. This Note discusses progress in implementing the NDP in 2013, based on the 2013 Monitoring Report prepared by the Chadian authorities. This Note was prepared within the context of the HIPC initiative, for which Chad reached the decision point in 2001. Satisfactory implementation over at least one year of a Poverty Reduction Strategy is a HIPC completion point floating condition, and it was agreed with the authorities that the Monitoring Report of the National Development Plan 2013-15 would constitute the reference document for assessing its implementation. 4. In staffs view, the NDP was overall satisfactorily implemented in 2013. Such an achievement represents a major departure from the non-implementation of the first two poverty reduction strategies (2003-6; 2008-11), a development explained by a sharp improvement in security conditions and strong ownership resulting from the broad consultative process that supported the formulation of the NDP. By end 2013, around two thirds of strategic indicators and one half of intermediary indicators retained in the results framework did record progress in line with retained targets. In addition, the contribution of the 2013 national budget to the NDP implementation was close to initial plans, reflecting structural progress in terms of budget execution; and the adoption of a robust RF allowed the authorities to effectively monitor NDP implementation, in terms of inputs, outputs and outcomes. While a reliable poverty survey available in 2012 provided the analytical foundation to design the NDP, a new survey to be conducted in 2015-16 will allow assessing the impact of the NDP on poverty trends. A new demographic and health survey to be conducted in 2014-15 will complement this picture. II. MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE 5. The 2013-15 NDP’s macroeconomic framework aims at maintaining macroeconomic stability, sustained levels of public spending to support economic growth and a reduction in poverty, and sustainable public debt. Real non-oil GDP, which has represented around 70 percent of total GDP, was projected to grow by more than 10 percent per year on average, driven by expansions in agricultural production (partly as the result of government-supported provision of seeds, fertilizer, and tractors). Oil GDP was projected to accelerate thanks to the start of production in new fields. After peaking in 2012, annual inflation was expected to converge to CEMAC’s 3 percent target. The NDP projected that a sustained reduction in the non-oil primary 2 See forthcoming IDA and IMF (2015), “Republic of Chad: Enhanced Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative Completion Point and Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative” for a detailed discussion on progress against floating completion point conditions. 2 deficit to close to 15 percent of non-oil GDP by 2015 would lead to slight improvements in public debt ratios. The resulting medium-term expenditure envelopes were deemed consistent with the NDP’s financing needs. 6. The macroeconomic developments described in the 2013 Monitoring Report are broadly in line with the staff’s assessment. Real non-oil GDP grew by about 8 percent according to IMF staff estimates (around 10 percent according to the authorities’ calculations based on chain- weighting methodology), a slight deceleration relative to 2012 as agricultural production returned to more normal levels following the exceptionally good climatic conditions in 2012. Still, the supply of agricultural products in domestic markets remained strong, even during the dry season. Consequently, annual inflation fell sharply in 2013 to almost 0 percent due to a sizable fall in food prices. The external current account deficit widened partly as the result of reduced oil exports and FDI inflows to the oil sector continued to be its main financing source. Despite a reduction in government deposits, international reserves increased slightly to about 2.5 months of imports of goods and services. 7. Despite a strong improvement in the underlying fiscal policy stance, unexpected oil revenue shocks led to a sizable overall fiscal deficit. The non-oil primary deficit fell slightly more rapidly in 2013 than envisaged under the NDP mainly on account of stronger non-oil revenue collection and in spite of unanticipated security spending linked to Chad’s participation in the international military campaign in Mali. However, unforeseen oil production declines in mature fields linked to setbacks to their gas-powered electricity generation systems led to a shortfall in oil revenues. Consequently, the overall fiscal deficit was higher than originally envisaged and the government resorted to a non-concessional oil sales advance operation to offset the oil revenue shortfall in the absence of better financing alternatives or fiscal adjustment options, while maintaining priority social spending. Importantly, during 2013 Chad decided to cancel a large non- concessional project financing agreement with Eximbank China. As a result, deterioration in debt ratios was limited despite the extraordinary circumstances affecting the 2013 budget implementation. Going forward, the authorities need to persevere with a well-targeted fiscal consolidation and to rely on concessional funding sources to ensure debt sustainability. Obviously, reaching the HIPC completion point would help to obtain some debt relief and to expand access to concessional funding from development partners. 8. The contribution of the 2013 budget to the implementation of the 2013-15 NDP was relatively satisfactory. The 2013 Monitoring Report indicates that the spending envelope envisaged under the NDP’s priority action plans was executed by about 81 percent in 2013, with an 84 percent execution rate from budgetary sources, which would reflect structural progress in budget execution and improvements in the monitoring of NDP implementation. Execution rates were stronger for activities linked to governance improvements and human capital development, but weaker for productive development and environmental protection. Part of the execution shortfalls stemmed from ex-ante planning challenges and the intra-year adjustments to the budget in response to oil revenue and security-related expenditure shocks. However, implementation 3 constraints likely played an important role as well given an incipient experience with multi-year program budgeting. In this regard, it would be important for future annual monitoring reports to include an analysis of the factors behind execution shortfalls and how to deal with them. III. PROGRESS AGAINST NDP OBJECTIVES A. Developing production capacities and job opportunities 9. The NDP articulates several strategic priorities to foster growth and job creation, including the mechanization and intensification of agriculture, the extension of services to the livestock sector, the development of vocational training, the improvement of the business climate, and the development of infrastructure. Agricultural development is also meant to strengthen food security, while connective infrastructure is expected to facilitate regional integration. 10. A number of projects to improve water management, generalize the use of fertilizers and tractors, and extend veterinary services were aimed to modernize agriculture and livestock. In 2013, an additional 290 water points for herders were installed (in line with 2015 targets), but investments in irrigation were halted in the face of procurement issues. 4,000 tons of fertilizers, 2,500 tons of improved seeds, and 781 tractors were made available to farmers, which, while higher compared to 2012, were nonetheless below intermediary targets retained for 2013. Part of this gap was covered in 2014 through the supply of 1,732 tractors to farmers. Meanwhile, the vaccination rate of livestock against contagious diseases rose from 15 to 18 percent between 2012 and 2013. 11. Progress in improving the business climate and increasing job opportunities for the youth remained modest in 2013. There was no significant progress in Doing Business indicators in 2013, and the only source of job creation for the youth reported in the monitoring report is the hiring of 6,000 youth in the public administration. This lack of progress reflects both the difficulty to monitor job creation in the informal sector (including agriculture) and the difficulty to establish a strong and conducive dialogue between authorities and a private sector which remains mostly informal, in light of costly, complex and long registration (to the fiscal, business and social security administrations) procedures. 3 In the face of it, improved tax policy design and revenue administration are necessary to encourage informal firms to regularize their situation vis-à-vis fiscal, business and social security administrations. 12. Significant progress in the development of infrastructure was recorded in 2013. Broadly on track to meet 2015 targets, the number of kilometers of paved roads for the national network increased from 1,908 in 2012 to 2,733 in 2013, while the length of rural roads (including feeder roads) increased from 2,130 to 3,293 over the same period. Installed electricity generation increased by 80 Mega Watts in 2013, and access to internet increased from 4.7 to 12.9 percent of 3 Institut National de la Statistique, des Etudes Economiques et Démographiques (2013), “Secteur informel au Tchad en 2011,” N’Djamena. 4 the population between 2012 and 2013. Improved budget execution and procurement procedures, and greater competition in service delivery (for internet in particular), greatly contributed to such achievements. Progress was also recorded in the facilitation of major international corridors, triggering for instance a decline in average transit time from the Douala port in Cameroon to N’Djamena from 15 days in 2012 to 7 days in 2013. 13. A non-oil GDP growth of around 8 percent in 2013 would suggest the relative success of those sectoral policies. Such a rate of non-oil GDP expansion is satisfactory given an expected decline in agricultural production following the bumper crop in 2012, as well as the impact of the fiscal consolidation discussed above. It also slightly exceeded the average growth of 7.6 percent observed between 2005 and 2012. In 2013, agricultural production managed to be relatively elevated, while non-oil GDP growth was mainly driven by commerce, transport and telecommunications in the tertiary sector, as well as manufacturing, handicrafts and utilities in the secondary sector, even if the latter represents a small weight in the economy. B. Mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion 14. Universal access to quality health and education, water, sanitation, and the development of social protection mechanisms for the most vulnerable parts of the population are the strategic priorities retained in the NDP to reduce poverty and inequalities. These ambitious objectives are further magnified by the very high fertility rate most recently recorded in Chad, ranging between 6.5 and 7 children per woman. However, the APR, as the NDP itself, devotes little attention to provisions targeting fertility reduction, and the decline in the contraceptive prevalence ratio between 2004 (3 percent) and 2013 (1.6 percent) does not suggest any significant progress in this critical area. 15. Chad recorded important progress in health indicators in 2013, but major challenges remain. Free access to selected health service for 350,000 persons in 2013 (against 240,000) in 2012, the rehabilitation and operationalization of 24 regional hospitals and 450 health centers, improved access to water sources (covering 46 percent of the population in 2013 against 37 percent in 2011) and sanitation (16 percent of population in 2013 against 12 percent in 2012), extended vaccination campaigns and the recruitment and deployment to rural areas of qualified health personnel altogether contributed to the following outcomes: significant declines in infant and neo- natal mortality, acute malnutrition, as well as in the prevalence of respiratory infections, syphilis, genital ulcers and purulent urethritis. Yet, under-5 mortality increased between 2012 and 2013 with persistent malaria prevalence and increased acute malnutrition for children (in the Sahelian zone in particular, in contrast with the rest of the country where acute malnutrition has been in significant regression since 2007). In 2013, the actual share of health expenditures in total public expenditures (excluding debt service) was 8.1 percent, against 9.8 percent in the Budget Law and a target of 20 percent for 2015. 5 16. Progress achieved in the education sector was limited in light of huge demographic challenges. The rapid demographic growth rate and increased enrollment rates in the last decade have rendered the objective of improving, or even maintaining, the quality of primary education extremely challenging. Thus, while a 7 percent annual increase in primary school enrollment is indicative of efforts to increase access, the repetition rate in primary education worsened in 2013 (from 23 percent in 2012 to 25 percent in 2013) and the primary completion rate has stagnated at about 38 percent (over these past 10 years). Those developments illustrate serious quality concerns. By contrast, gross enrollment rates in secondary education increased from 28 to 30 percent between 2012 and 2013, while repetition rates decreased from 47 to 42 percent. In 2013, the actual share of education expenditures in total public expenditures (excluding debt service) established itself at 10.9 percent, against 8.7 percent in the Budget Law and a target of 20 percent for 2015. As for education, such a target might prove to be too ambitious given the relatively low starting point. 17. Formal social protection mechanisms remain largely insufficient in Chad. In 2013, 5 percent of the population was covered by social security, mostly Government employees. From a food security stand-point, cereal stocks were increased from 35 to 39 thousand tons between 2012 and 2013, and vitamin A supplement and anti-parasite campaigns were conducted, with respective population coverage of 74 percent and 65 percent. Acknowledging the deficiencies, the Government developed in 2013 a comprehensive social protection strategy. The strategy identifies the need to: (i) pay particular attention to key vulnerable groups; (ii) develop social security relying on mutual health funds; (iii) extend cash-for-work programs targeted to unemployed youth; (iv) target food insecure land-locked zones, and (iv) better articulate supply demand-side interventions. The strategy is scheduled to be implemented from 2015 onwards with the support of the World Bank. C. Protecting the environment and combating climate change 18. The NDP pillar dedicated to environmental protection and climate change was appropriately built on four key elements: (1) protection of Lake Chad and other ecosystems; (2) land management in rural and urban areas; (3) prevention of management of risks and natural disasters; and (4) fight against desertification and biodiversity conservation. The joint IDA-IMF staff advisory note of June/July 2013 welcomed the focus on Lake Chad and the attention paid to natural disasters and risk management, and made some concrete recommendations to complement the proposed actions in the area of land management and investments to be made in water resource infrastructure, land and water conservation and resilient agriculture and agro-pastoralism. It also shed the light on the poor enforcement of the forestry law and the absence of a regional biodiversity conservation strategy, which led, inter-alia, to several cases of elephant poaching. 19. Overall, there was no measurable progress under the environment and climate change pillar as the strategic and intermediate indicators (with the exception of the land-use planning ones) were not reported. While some progress has been made in institutional strengthening and adoption of strategic documents such as the national land use planning master 6 plan 4 and four regional plans, 5 there is no information on the implementation of concrete activities under this pillar despite a high disbursement rate of allocated resources under the 2013 Budget. The latter could be just the result of a relatively small budgetary allocation and the high disbursement rate associated with risks and disaster management, which exceeded the initial allocation. However, monitoring of progress across this pillar extends beyond direct incomes and livelihoods impacts to include impacts on other elements of well-being captured in other pillars of the NDP (e.g., health, education, agro-sylvo-pastoral production). 20. The apparent lack of progress calls for a more rigorous approach in identifying the priority areas of interventions and investments needed to support the country’s sustainable development. The same principle applies for the development of the country’s long term vision for preserving its natural capital and improving the people’s quality of life in the context of the upcoming 2030 vision and its associated 5-year Plans. D. Strengthening governance 21. In the absence of a second national governance strategy, the NDP serves as the framework for governance reforms in Chad. Governance is an important aspect of the NDP and its strengthening is an important basis for a successful implementation of the NDP itself. The NDP focused on public sector reforms, public financial management, decentralization, and human rights. The 2013 Monitoring Report suggests a relatively strong implementation of the projects and programs promoting governance in 2013. 22. Significant progress in the implementation of public financial management reforms was observed in 2013. The following concrete actions can be highlighted: (i) enactment of the Organic Finance Law (LOLF) by the President of the Republic; (ii) creation of a computer center within the Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB); (iii) computerization of the public expenditure chain (Circuit Intégré de la Dépense, CID) through the completion of network connections between different units of the MFB and six other ministries as well as the interconnection between the IFMIS and SIGASPE (Système Intégré de Gestion Administrative et Salariale du Personnel de l’Etat), connection of the CID to the Treasury to cover the four phases of the spending cycle; (iv) operationalization of the payment systems SYSTAC and SYGMA; (v) establishment of and compliance with a calendar for budget preparation and approval; (vi) establishment of a macroeconomic framework model and the development of operating manuals; and (vii) initiation of efforts to fully computerize the accounting system. Public procurement was improved through increased reliance on competitive bidding and the publication of a public procurement bulletin for 2013 including information on the attribution of contracts. In terms of external control, the regularization of the budget review acts (loi de règlement) 2007-2013 was pursued. In addition, the government tightened controls on the use of extraordinary spending procedures (DAOs), which fell from 2012 levels to below 20 percent of domestically financed spending (excluding salaries, 4 Schéma national d'aménagement du territoire. 5 Schémas régionaux d'aménagement du territoire. 7 debt service, and security spending linked to the Mali military campaign). Despite these efforts, PFM systems need to be further reinforced to enhance the efficiency of public spending. The authorities have expressed their commitment to pursue reforms, in particular through the transposition of the remaining CEMAC directives (Governance and Transparency; General Regulations on Government Accounting; Budgetary Nomenclature; Government Financial Operations; Government Chart of Accounts). 23. Chad’s adherence to the African Peer Review Mechanisms (APRM) and compliance to the EITI confirms the Government’s commitment to improving governance and institutional quality. Chad adhered to the APRM in January 2013, a welcome initiative which reflected the Government’s commitment to pursue reforms to promote good governance. The country became an EITI Candidate country in 2010 and conducted its first validation, the EITI's quality assurance mechanism, in May 2013. That report found that significant progress had been made, but alerted that further work was needed to achieve compliance to the EITI Rules. Important efforts were made to establish a monitoring and evaluation system of oil receipts and to prepare the 2012 report which was published in March 2014. In the end, all outstanding issues were resolved and Chad was recognized as EITI-compliant in October 2014. Going forward, the recent significant changes in the oil sector in terms of higher government equity participation, increased reliance on production sharing contracts, and utilization of oil sales advances call for a revamping of the oil revenue transparency process to adapt to the new realities. 24. Decentralization efforts were pursued during 2013. During the year, all officials elected at the local level in the 2012 elections received training and other capacity building efforts included the validation of a guide for Municipal Development Plans. Despite these efforts, capacity to deliver public services at the municipal level, and associated financial and human resources transferred from the center, remain extremely limited. 25. Corruption remains a significant challenge despite some efforts to reduce it. During 2013, financial and performance audits (control missions) resulted in prosecution of 36 persons for embezzlement of public funds. A total of FCFA 6 billion was recovered as a consequence of those missions. However, Chad’s ranking on Transparency International’s Corruption Index remained low in 2013. The interactions between corruption, poverty reduction and growth are critical aspects to Chad’s long-term development efforts. Consequently, the fight against corruption will have to be intensified and the next National Governance Strategy should have a special focus on it. IV. IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS, MONITORING AND EVALUATION 26. An institutional framework was put in place in 2013 to monitor progress against NDP objectives. It is comprised of an Inter-ministerial Oversight Board, a Technical Steering Committee, Regional Monitoring Committees, and a Dialogue and Consensus Framework 8 between the Government and Partners. The 2013 monitoring report is nonetheless silent on the roles effectively played in the production of such report by the different entities, beyond that of the technical steering committee. Lessons learned from the functioning of this institutional framework could help improve the quality of future monitoring reports as well as the implementation of the NDP. As advised in the JSAN on the NDP, the role of the National Institute for Statistics, Economic and Demographic Studies (INSEED) could also be further clarified, given its responsibility for data collection, centralization, validation, dissemination and storage. 27. Staffs appreciate the authorities’ efforts to assess the financial contribution of the national budget. As stated in the 2013 monitoring report, the NDP constitutes the sole and unique reference framework for all development interventions in Chad. Thus, government budgets are expected to fully reflect NDP priorities in the allocation of national resource. In this regard, the 2013 monitoring report is making a remarkable effort to update the PAP for 2014 and 2015, in order to inform the preparation of budgets for 2014 and 2015, and assess the related financing gap. Since it was completed in 2014, the 2013 monitoring report could have benefited from a discussion on institutional mechanisms put in place to ensure that NDP objectives are fully considered during budget preparation, as well as from a discussion on the inclusion of NPD objectives in the Finance Law 2014 approved in late 2013. 28. Staffs also praise authorities for their efforts to streamline the results framework. The JSAN on the NDP underlined the likely challenges related to retaining a RF comprising over 400 indicators, most of which without baseline, target, and identified source of information. Since then, the RF was streamlined to retain a workable number of indicators, with most of them including baselines, targets, identified sources of information, and policy attributions. This RF was extensively used in the monitoring report and proved extremely useful to monitor effective progress on a selected number of key indicators. Staffs advise the authorities to keep unchanged the RF, while updating it regularly with newly available data. Next monitoring reports would also benefit from an annex clearly reporting the definition and source of statistical measures retained (metadata). V. CONCLUSIONS, RISKS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 29. Staffs commend the authorities for their sustained efforts in implementing the NDP. Staffs acknowledge the institutional framework put in place to monitor the implementation of the NDP, including through a streamlined set of indicators. The first year of implementation of the NDP shows important achievements under difficult external conditions, particularly in terms of maintaining macroeconomic stability, supporting agriculture and livestock productions, expanding road infrastructure, improving health service coverage and indicators, and implementing public financial management reforms. On the other hand, much remains to be done to reduce poverty and foster inclusive growth, including by reducing infrastructure bottlenecks (e.g., in the energy sector), improving the business environment and the quality of education, developing social protection and protecting the environment through improved land and water management. In 9 particular, staffs encourage the authorities to continue to implement their ambitious public financial management reform agenda, a critical element toward increased efficiency of public spending and reduced corruption. Those reforms should include the computerization of government accounting—to strengthen the quality and timelines of fiscal data—and the reinforcement of treasury management operations. 30. Continued implementation of the NDP remains subject to several risks: • Chad’s very high dependence on volatile oil revenue makes spending plans quite vulnerable to falls in oil prices and changes in oil production plans. The sharp fall in oil prices in late 2014 will force a reassessment of the PAP in terms of available resources and spending priorities, and significant fiscal consolidation will be needed in view of financing constraints. In this context, staffs highlight the criticality of expanding non-oil revenue through strengthening tax policy design and revenue administration in particular, the need for further support from Chad’s development partners to help the country obtain the necessary resources to tackle its development challenges, and the need to protect social priority spending as much as possible from eventual fiscal adjustment needs which should rather focus on the rationalization of less productive and non-well targeted spending (e.g., transfers and subsidies). Oil revenue volatility suggests that Chad will continue to need to base spending plans on prudent revenue projections with a medium-term horizon and to strengthen spending controls and build stabilization buffers. • Second, various political and institutional challenges are present. The complex regional security situation constitutes an ever-present risk for Chad that, as in recent years, could force a change in priorities away from the NDP’s objectives. Furthermore, it is important to maintain the commitment to reforms and avoid policy slippages during the electoral cycle starting in 2016. Despite some recent progress, institutional and technical capacity constraints can complicate Chad’s ability to implement increasingly complex development programs and projects. • Finally, continued volatility in agricultural output risks affecting growth and poverty reduction objectives foreseen in the NDP. In this regard, staffs encourage the authorities to deepen their efforts to better protect vulnerable households against climatic shocks through the development of climate smart agricultural techniques and safety nets in rural areas. 31. Staffs encourage the authorities to take into account the NDP implementation lessons in preparing the next 5-year national development strategy. The authorities have started work to design the NDP 2016-20, following the consultative process that guided the NDP 2013-15. Staffs believe that is important to determine priorities on the basis of realistic cost-benefit analyses of public expenditure, existing capacity constraints, and the continued fragile regional environment in which Chad operates. 32. In considering the 2013 Monitoring Report on the NDP for the 2013-2015 period and associated JSAN, Executive Directors views are sought on whether they concur with the advice and recommendations made by staffs in the identified priority areas. 10 Republic of Chad Office of the President Office of the Prime Minister Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation 2013-2015 National Development Plan (PND) 2013 Monitoring Report May 2014 -2- Contents [ a] Page Acronyms and abbreviations ...................................................................................... 4 Tables ......................................................................................................................... 6 Charts ......................................................................................................................... 7 Foreword .................................................................................................................... 8 Summary .................................................................................................................... 10 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 16 1. General overview of the country .................................................................... 17 1.1 Political and security context ............................................................. 17 1.2 Evolution of the economic situation .................................................. 18 1.3 Poverty in Chad .................................................................................. 22 1.4 Poverty and human development ....................................................... 26 2. Mechanisms for implementing and monitoring the PND .............................. 28 2.1 Introduction and contextual overview ................................................ 28 2.2 Apparatus for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the PND .. 28 2.3 Functioning of the monitoring and evaluation mechanism ................ 31 3. PND execution: Performance and results ...................................................... 39 3.1 Development of production capacities and job opportunities ............ 40 3.1.1 Rural sector development and food security 3.1.2 Job creation and training 3.1.3 Private sector development 3.1.4 Development of basic economic infrastructure 3.1.5 Research and development 3.1.6 Regional integration (the CAEMC and the ECCAS) 3.1.7 Mobilizing the skills and abilities of Chadian expatriates 3.2 Mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion ........................................... 50 3.2.1 Education sector 3.2.2 Health sector [a] Translator’s note: In the original French text, the subparagraph number “3.2.3” is repeated and identifies two different subparagraphs: “Nutrition sector” and “Clean drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation.” -3- 3.2.3 Nutrition sector 3.2.3 Clean drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation 3.2.4 Habitat 3.2.5 Sports, culture, and recreation 3.3 Environmental protection and combating climate change ................. 62 3.3.1 Adaptation to climate change 3.3.2 Land management sector 3.4 Strengthening governance .................................................................. 64 3.4.1 Modernizing the State and reforming the civil service 3.4.2 Strengthening decentralization 3.4.3 Promoting human rights, peace, and social cohesion 3.4.4 Justice reform, affirmative consolidation of the public sector, and promotion of good governance 4. Financial execution of the PND in 2013 ........................................................ 71 5. Challenges, outlook, and recommendations ................................................... 75 5.1 Challenges to be addressed to improve the PND’s implementation ................................................................................... 75 5.2 Outlook and recommendations .......................................................... 75 6. Annexes .......................................................................................................... 78 6.1 Annex 1: Results-measurement framework for the 2013-2015 PND ................ 79 6.2 Annex 2: Monitoring and follow-up of HIPC Initiative and governance indicators ......................................................................... 89 -4- Acronyms and abbreviations AFD French Agency for Development Agence Française du Développement AfDB African Development Bank APE Students’ Parents Association BEAC Bank of Central African States CAB Central Africa Backbone Program CAR Central African Republic CCP postal check clearing-house CCSRP Oil Revenue Control and Monitoring Board CENI Independent National Electoral Commission CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States CFA African Financial Community Communauté Financière Africaine CID Integrated System for Tracking and Reporting Expenditure Circuit Intégré des Dépenses CILSS Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel Comité permanent Inter-États de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel CNC National Curriculum Center CNIFD National Committee for the Integration of Women in Development CNR National Committee for Reintegration COGES Health Facilities Management Committee COJO Bid Evaluation and Adjudication Board CPA Complementary Package of Activities CSP socio-professional classifications DAI digital access indicator (in the field of telecommunications) DURAH Urban Development and Housing Improvement Project ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOSIT Chadian Survey of Household Consumption and the Informal Sector EDST Chadian Demographic and Health Survey EFA Education for All HIPC Initiative Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization IDB Islamic Development Bank IMF International Monetary Fund LMD bachelor’s degree – master’s degree – doctorate MAP Minimum Package of Activities MDGs Millennium Development Goals MOP manually-operated pump MPNTC Ministry of the Post Office and New Communication Technologies -5- MDTF Medium-Term Development Framework new ICTs new information and communication technologies OANET Organization of Non-Governmental Actors in Chad OIC Organisation of the Islamic Conference OHADA Organization for the Harmonization of Business Laws in Africa OHDU Housing and Urban Development Monitoring Center OTRT Chadian Office of Telecommunications Regulation OVC/AIDS orphans and other vulnerable children as a consequence of AIDS PAEF Education and Training Support Program PAMFIP Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances PAP Priority Action Plan PARSET Chad Education Sector Reform Support Program PND National Development Plan PNSA National Food Security Program PNLS National Program to combat AIDS PNS National Health Policy PRGF Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility SIPEA Interim Strategy for Education and Literacy STD/AIDS sexually transmitted disease/acquired immune-deficiency syndrome TIGO Tigo [mobile telecommunications provider] UNDP United Nations Development Programme WFP World Food Programme WTO World Trade Organization -6- Tables [ b] Table 1 Evolution of GDP, 2012 to 2015 Table 2 Government finances, 2011 to 2015 (as a percentage of GDP) Table 3 Poverty index Table 4 Poverty indicators Table 5 Allocation of the 2013-2015 PND forecast budget by subsector and by source of funding (both funding confirmed and funding yet to be determined) Table 6 Allocation of the PND’s cost year by year Table 7 Project budget programming Table 8 Analysis of the results-measurement framework Table 9 Evolution of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries output, 2011 to 2014 Table 10 Performance indicators Table 11 Performance indicators: Business climate Table 12 Performance indicators: Basic economic infrastructure Table 13 Education sector indicators Table 8 Performance indicators in the area of public health Table 14 Performance indicators: Clean drinking water, health, and sanitation Table 15 Results indicators Table 16 Sources of PND financing in 2013 Table 17 Budget and execution status of projects under the 2013-2015 PND Table 19 PND budget forecasts and budget execution in 2013 [b] Translator’s note: This list of tables reflects the order and numbering of tables in the original French text. In particular, there is a second table identified as “Table 8” (listed between Tables 13 and 14) and there is no Table 18. -7- Charts [ c] Chart 1 Evolution of GDP growth and contribution by sector Chart 2 Dynamic of poverty Chart 3 Institutional apparatus for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the PND Chart 4 Initial breakdown of the PND’s cost, by pillar Chart 5 PAP cost breakdown, by area of priority Chart 6 The PAP’s sources of funding Chart 5 Prevalence of GAM among children aged 6 to 59 months: May to July, 2012, and July and August, 2013, in the Sahelian zone Chart 7 2013 financial execution by strategic pillar [c] Translator’s note: This list of charts reflects the order and numbering of charts in the original French text. In particular, between the charts identified as “Chart 6” and “Chart 7,” there is a second chart identified as “Chart 5.” -8- Foreword A landlocked country in the heart of central Africa, Chad estimated to have over 11 million inhabitants, 50.7 percent of them women. After gaining independence in 1960, the country has seen a succession of internal armed conflicts giving rise to periods of instability and a fragile situation at the political, social, and economic levels. As a result, Chad’s human development index has improved only marginally, from 0.271 in 1975 to 0.340 in 2012 (UNDP, 2013), ranking Chad in 184th place out of 187 countries. The 2013-2015 National Development Plan (PND), currently in progress, sets out four major challenges: (1) economic growth; (2) meeting social needs; (3) protecting the environment; and (4) governance. The PND has identified eight high-priority objectives: (i) sustained growth; (ii) food security; (iii) job creation and access to employment; (iv) development of human capital; (v) private sector development; (vi) development of information and communications technologies (ICTs); (vii) environmental protection and adaptation to climate change; and (viii) improved governance. During the first year of implementation, the financial execution rate of the Priority Action Program (PAP) was 81.1 percent of the figure forecast. However, the PND needs additional financing estimated at CFAF 609 billion, broken down as CFAF 77 billion in 2014 and CFAF 532 billion in 2015. The PND aims to achieve Vision 2025 set out by the President of Chad, aimed at “promoting rural development” and making Chad “an emerging regional power by 2025, supported by diversified and sustainable sources of growth that create added value and employment and assure every Chadian adequate access to basic social services, decent housing, and an adequate opportunity for education.” Given the amount of financing needed, it is imperative that the necessary resources be mobilized to ensure that the objectives of rebuilding the country and consolidating peace and the rule of law are achieved. National savings are at a modest level (about 14 percent of GDP in 2012) for financing investment needs. The country’s ability to attract foreign direct investment (outside the petroleum sector), which is one of the key factors in driving economic growth, is likewise very weak and the official development assistance (ODA) Chad receives falls well below expectations. This warrants holding an international conference to mobilize resources commensurate with Chad’s needs, to enable the country to overcome its development challenges and fragility within the framework of the 2013-2015 PND. -9- Inasmuch as the 2013-2015 PND is one of the main instruments in the short term for realizing the profound ambitions of the Alliance for the Renaissance of Chad, it blends together perfectly the strategic orientations of the government’s political program. The process of elaborating the PND was participatory, driven by the search for a strong consensus around its core directions in order to ensure that all actors identified with the PND, thereby facilitating its implementation. That process provided a further opportunity to strengthen dialogue between the government administration, civil society, and development partners with respect to the sector policies and strategies to be carried out. Because of this, the PND is the central reference framework for dialogue and consensus in matters of economic and social development, both for the government and for technical and financial partners (TFPs). In 2013, implementation of the PND has been satisfactory as 81 percent of its objectives have been achieved. Efforts are continuing to boost the economy so that Chad can enter the next five-year period (2016-2020) on a sound footing. Mariam Mahamat Nour Minister of Planning and International Cooperation - 10 - Summary This report has, for the first time, been prepared under the direction of the Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate of the Ministry of Planning, with support from UNDP and French experts. This exercise has made it possible to identify not only some difficulties but also some successes which it is worthwhile pointing out. To facilitate dialogue and coordination between the Ministry of Planning and the sector ministries, the need became apparent to set up sector monitoring units within the 27 ministries involved in implementing the PND. The 2013-2015 PND sets out four major challenges over the medium term: (i) accelerating growth; (ii) broadening and improving the coverage of the population’s basic social needs; (iii) improving the environment; and (iv) changing the style of governance. The monitoring and evaluation of the 2013-2015 PND are based on two tools: (i) monitoring the execution of the Priority Action Program (PAP); and (ii) monitoring the results- measurement framework (24 strategic-results indicators and 65 intermediate-results indicators). 1 These tools were devised in 2013 in participatory fashion with domestic actors and development partners as a group. The same is true for the present report, for which the preparation process included the following: • Work by the interministerial committee of national experts, to compile sector reports and validate the plan for preparing the report; • The Bakara retreat (April 25 to 27, 2014), which enabled the first draft of the report to be prepared; • Ongoing work by the interministerial committee of experts to refine and improve the draft produced by the Bakara retreat; • Sharing of the refined, improved draft with TFPs for their comments; • Validation of the 2013 monitoring report by the PND’s Technical Steering Committee on June 10, 2014. Since 2009, Chad’s situation has been relatively stable. In 2013, it was elected a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council. It is also a member of the “g7+”, it has joined the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), it has acceded to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), and in July 2013 it signed a staff- monitored program with the International Monetary Fund so that it would be eligible for the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. To improve its political and administrative 1 The results-measurement framework includes the 15 HIPC Initiative trigger indicators. - 11 - governance, it is working to reform the civil service and carry out a process to decentralize the public administration to strengthen social dialogue and foster bottom-up development. The overall level of prices stabilized in 2013. At the end of 2013 the inflation rate was 0.4 percent, compared with 7.7 percent in 2012. The government has undertaken to make further efforts to capitalize on farm sector results, particularly by intensifying farm production not dependent on rainfall. In 2013, non-oil budget revenues grew 1.3 percent of non-oil GDP. Non-oil tax revenues were equivalent to 8.7 percent of non-oil GDP, a level not matched in the past 10 years. In general terms, multiyear budget programming, of which each annual segment is determined by the Budget Law, is consistent with the 2013-2015 PND’s Priority Action Plan and with the Three-Year Public Investment Program (PTIP). The initial budget year for the 2013-2015 PND shows that implementing it will cost CFAF 3,279 billion, or approximately US$6.5 billion. The government intends to cover 53 percent of this budget envelope. The funding gap to be made up is approximately CFAF 609 billion: CFAF 77 billion in 2014 and CFAF 532 billion in 2015. Analysis of the performance of PND implementation 2 in 2013 shows a relatively positive result overall. The lack of a yearly target for 2013 does not facilitate an analysis. Nevertheless, 11 out of 16 of the strategic-results indicators saw an improvement (the remaining eight could not be assessed because data were not available); and out of 61 intermediate-results indicators, 58 were assessed of which 27 were also considered to be on track to achieve the 2015 target. In 2013, the government made many efforts in the area of administrative reforms, aimed particularly at improving Chad’s business climate gauged according to the 10 indicators used as a basis for the World Bank’s Doing Business assessments and raising the country’s ranking. In 2013, the main microfinance institutions (MFIs) were 154 savings-and-loan associations [caisses] serving the financial needs of 123,115 customers. Total savings stood at CFAF 5.499 billion and total lending at CFAF 6.675 billion. In the area of tourism and artisan activities, 4,066 artisans have received support from the Ministry of Tourism to bring them into the socioeconomic mainstream. Chad intends to use the development of basic economic infrastructure as the main tool to consolidate the country’s economic growth and improve its people’s well-being. Actions carried out in this area in 2013 were centered on (i) transport, (ii) energy, and (iii) information and communications technologies (ICTs). 2 See Annex 1, “Results-measurement framework.” - 12 - Analysis of performance. The following performance indicators are used in assessing the development of the system of roads and highways: (i) all-weather roads as a proportion of the permanent road and highway system; (ii) the number of secondary rural roads rehabilitated; and (iii) paved primary roads. The results are as follows: • In 2013, 86 percent of the permanent road system was usable year-round. • The rate of access to electric power increased from 3.7 percent in 2011 to 3.9 percent in 2013. • The proportion of households with a telephone increased from 31.6 percent in 2012 to 36.39 percent in 2013. • The rate of access to landline and mobile telephones remained unchanged during the period. • The rate of Internet access shot up from 4.7 percent in 2012 to 12.91 percent in 2013. Development research, regional cooperation, and mobilization of Chadian expatriates had positive results in increasing farm production, strengthening the capacities of caregivers, and facilitating exchanges and regional development. In regard to primary-school education, further efforts are needed to improve the gross enrollment ratio (GER) and the repeater rate, which both worsened from 2012 to 2013. The GER declined from 98.2 percent in 2012 to 94.81 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 115 percent. From 2012 to 2013, the GER for boys declined from 111.6 percent to 107.5 percent and for girls from 84.5 percent to 82.09 percent. The same is true of the net enrollment ratio (NER), which stands at 65.6 percent, meaning that 34.4 percent of children aged 6 to 11 years are not in school. The primary-school completion rate is stagnant at around 37 percent (28 percent for girls). Available data for 2012 and 2013 indicate that the retention rate for boys rose from 35.1 percent to 39.21 percent and for girls rose from 25.7 percent to 28.57 percent. On the other hand, the GER at the secondary-school level (increasing from 28 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 50 percent) and the repeater rate at the secondary-school level (declining from 46.7 percent in 2012 to 42.0 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 20 percent) saw improvements in 2012 and 2013 for both boys and girls. As regards postsecondary education, in 2010-11 Chad had 47 institutions of higher learning, half of them in the private sector. All together, they had an enrollment of 20,349 students, 4,659 of them girls (23 percent). Of the total, public institutions of higher learning (universities and colleges) accounted for 72 percent of all postsecondary students (for girls, only 19 percent). The illiteracy rate is very high (78 percent), with a large disparity between men (69 percent) and women (86 percent) as indicated. - 13 - The evolution of health indicators is positive overall. Some indicators have already achieved the 2015 target while others are moving in that direction. Available data indicate that from 2012 to 2013, the health coverage ratio strengthened from 68 percent to 72.4 percent thanks to the rehabilitation of 24 regional hospitals and 450 clinics (health centers). The proportion of births attended by qualified health personnel is clearly improving, from 22 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2013 thanks to the recruitment and redeployment of qualified personnel. However, the rate of postnatal care remains stagnant at 4 percent. The rate of acute respiratory infection is declining steadily, from 12.35 percent to 10.11 percent in 2013. The DTP3 vaccination rate has improved from 16 percent in 2010 to 82 percent in 2013, exceeding the programmed target. The rate of HIV/AIDS prevalence among those aged 15 to 24 years is declining, and the number of condoms sold each year (AMASOT) is growing, indicating that the population is making greater use of this means of HIV/AIDS prevention. Results show a global acute malnutrition (GAM) rate of 13.6 percent for children aged 6 to 59 months. In specific terms, the highest prevalence of GAM exceeding the 15 percent WHO threshold is declining. Available data show that the acute malnutrition rate for children aged less than 5 years has fallen from 16 percent in 2007 to 5 percent in 2013, representing a greater decline than the rate of 10.0 percent targeted for 2015. The government is aiming to increase the supply of clean drinking water, and strengthen hygiene and sanitation conditions to improve people’s standard of living in both urban and rural areas. For the supply of clean drinking water, the rate of coverage rose from 48.0 percent in 2011 to 50.0 percent in 2013 in rural areas and from 37.0 percent in 2011 to 38.0 percent in 2013 in urban areas. In the sanitation sector, the proportion of households with access to working latrines increased 4 percent, from 12 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2013. The government has carried out the following projects to open up opportunities for young people: (i) establishment of the National Fund to Support Youth (FONAJ); (ii) establishment of the National Fund to Develop Sports (FNDS); (iii) establishment of the National Fund to Support Artists (FONAT); (iv) construction of stadiums in N’Djamena and other major cities and towns; (v) construction of housing units for youth; (vi) establishment of centers for talks and discussions. In performance terms, compared with 2012, major efforts have been made in 2013 to bring young people and their training into the economic mainstream (3,195 youth trained in entrepreneurship, 119 young people benefiting from development projects). In regard to cultural affairs, there have been a number of accomplishments, among them the protection of national heritage and technical, material, and financial assistance for artists and associations to support their participation in various competitions. Thanks to the national program to develop greenbelts, 80 hectares of land was reforested in 2013 out of the 143 hectares planned. The government has equipped and made operational - 14 - the Mobile Antipoaching and Environmental Protection Squad throughout Chadian territory. Two regional action programs and six local action programs have been developed for combating desertification in the Kanem and Logone Occidental regions in 2013. Chad is implementing major reforms under its Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances (PAMFIP) to restore budget discipline and especially to modernize the government’s financial management by, inter alia, putting in place the Integrated System for Tracking and Reporting Expenditure (CID), instituting systems to manage means of payment (SYSTAC and SYGMA), putting in place the Integrated Government Employee Administration and Payroll System (SIGASPE), and regularly producing foreign trade statistics by setting up the SYDONIA. In promoting human rights, peace, and social cohesion, the government intends to strengthen the legal and institutional framework, promote the defense of human rights, and implement conflict resolution mechanisms. In regard to peacebuilding, the government has made major efforts. At the international level, Chad has taken in nearly 350,000 refugees from Sudan and the Central African Republic, as well as 93,639 from the Central African Republic who have been repatriated. In 2013, 58 judges have been trained and three traveling court sessions have been held in Moundou. Chad has strengthened its political and institutional capacities to combat corruption effectively by establishing a Ministry for Affirmative Consolidation of the Public Sector and Promotion of Good Governance. A 2013 audit conducted across 31 ministries recovered over CFAF 6 billion in five departments. The PND’s forecast budget for 2013 showed an execution rate of 81.0 percent. That indicates a satisfactory budget absorption capacity. The Chadian government honored its financial commitments in a proportion of 84.3 percent, and external partners in a proportion of 73.8 percent. Outlook and recommendations Chad has the advantage of being able to base its development programs on a long-term Vision clearly enunciated by its Head of State. It can therefore elaborate its strategies and programs taking a coherent approach aimed at bringing the country to the status of an emerging power in 10 years (with a view to 2030), pursuing the 2016-2020, 2021-2025, and 2026-2030 Five-Year Plans. Vision 2030, yet to be drawn up, will take account of certain actions to be implemented in 10 years’ time before bringing the country up to the point of transformation. It will emphasize cultural, social, and environmental issues as a basis for that transformation. The advantage of having Vision 2030 in place is that it will make long-term development forecasts possible. This Vision document will provide a foundation for further work to be - 15 - carried on, particularly setting out a detailed timetable for the activities to be carried out over a nine-month time frame as well as the budgeting and associated tasks. On the basis of the foregoing analysis, this phase will be reserved for developing the Vision, and its strategic pillars and core directions. It will be of three months’ duration. Maintaining the timetable for the various steps and pursuing a participatory approach will ensure that the preparatory work for the 2016-2020 Five-Year Plan will be completed on schedule. Based on the foregoing considerations, the following recommendations are presented: • Strengthen requests to TFPs to mobilize the necessary financial resources to implement the PND so as to support the strategic planning process to advance Chad’s development. • Strengthen the capacities (human, financial, and material) of actors and organizational units making up the PND’s monitoring and evaluation apparatus and give special attention to financing household consumer surveys to provide up-to-date data on poverty and people’s living conditions. • Ensure that the entities making up the PND’s monitoring and evaluation apparatus operate effectively, to facilitate the development of the work plan for monitoring the implementation of the PND, including an analysis of coordination mechanisms and management of aid flows. - 16 - Introduction In accordance with the directions laid out by Chad’s President and Head of State, His Excellency Idriss DÉBY ITNO, Chad aspires to become an emerging power by 2025. That will mean (i) attaining the level of an intermediate-income country supported by diversified and sustainable sources of growth that create added value and decent jobs and (ii) assure better living standards for the country’s population by means of adequate access to basic social services and decent housing. In that connection, the government intends to promote and strengthen good governance and the rule of law by providing access to justice, protecting human rights, and combating impunity and corruption. It also intends to strengthen environmental protection, and adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. Driven by this conviction, the Government of Chad has developed a National Development Plan (PND) for the period 2013 to 2015 which sets out four major challenges over the medium term: (i) accelerating growth by consolidating resources and diversifying the country’s productive base; (ii) broadening and improving the coverage of the population’s basic social needs (food, dwellings, education, health, etc.); (iii) improving the environment by protecting it and making adaptations to climate change; (iv) changing the style of governance by putting in place a new institutional architecture, strengthening democracy, and promoting human rights. The PND has been devised according to a participatory process which has provided an opportunity to strengthen dialogue between the government administration, civil society, the private sector, and development partners regarding the political and strategic core directions of Chad’s development. The PND’s monitoring and evaluation apparatus calls for an annual monitoring report to be prepared at the end of the first year of implementation. This 2013 Monitoring Report has been prepared taking a participatory approach involving all the main development actors. Part 1 of the report provides a general overview of the country with specific reference to political, security, and economic factors and the evolution of poverty. Part 2 describes the monitoring and evaluation mechanism devised for the PND. Part 3 analyzes the 2013 performance for each pillar of the PND. Part 4 discusses the financial execution of the Priority Action Program (PAP). Part 5 examines the challenges and sets out recommendations to improve the implementation of the PND during the period from mid-2014 to 2015. Lastly, Part 6 contains annexes concerned with the indicators for monitoring the PND’s implementation. This monitoring report will not only make it possible to take stock of the execution of the PND during the year 2013 but will also provide a baseline for assessing its proper execution. In addition, this report will serve as a tool for negotiating ways to make up the PND’s funding gap, including the PNSA, and meeting the completion point under the HIPC Initiative. - 17 - Part 1. General overview of the country 1.1 Political and security context Since 2009, following decades of instability, Chad’s situation has been relatively stable. Nevertheless, this stability is continually being threatened by crises in neighboring countries (Mali, Sudan, the Central African Republic, and Libya). As a result, the country has taken in nearly 350,000 refugees from Sudan and the Central African Republic. There have also been 150,000 internal displaced persons. The crisis in the Central African Republic has had repercussions on Chad, which led the government to repatriate Chadian nationals beginning in December 2013. In intervening in Mali and the Central African Republic, Chad has resolutely undertaken to help maintain peace, security, and regional stability. It continues to play an important role in the African Union, in regional organizations (the CEN-SAD, the CAEMC, the ECCAS, and the OCI), and international organizations. This situation makes the international community more appreciative of Chad in its support for development and good governance. On October 18, 2013, Chad was elected a nonpermanent member of the United Nations Security Council. It is also a member of the “g7+”. 3 On January 26, 2013, Chad signed the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) to strengthen the national mechanism for good governance and acceptability. At the political level, the presidential election in 2011 and the legislative and local elections in 2012 help strengthen existing institutions and establish a sound basis for the decentralization process. Efforts by the political class as a whole also enabled the country to initiate a series of actions aimed at consolidating democracy and the rule of law, promoting development, and reducing poverty. A National Framework for Political Dialogue (CNDP) has been set up, bringing together the political parties of the presidential majority and the democratic opposition. However, the country continues to face many challenges associated with its postconflict situation, among them achieving greater social cohesion, rebuilding infrastructure that has been destroyed, and undertaking a thoroughgoing overhaul of an education system that has become obsolete. To improve political and administrative governance, the government has undertaken, first, in the reform of the public service, to modernize the State and make government actions more efficient and, second, in the process of decentralization, to strengthen social dialogue and bottom-up development. 3 This is a group of countries that recognize they are fragile and vulnerable, and which expressed in Busan in 2011 their desire to engage in the “New Deal” process, in accordance with its principles and together with their technical and financial partners, to improve the flow and effectiveness of aid necessary to rebuild the State, consolidate peace, and develop productive capacities. - 18 - 1.2 Evolution of the economic situation Evolution of the gross domestic product. In 2013, the real GDP growth rate stood at 4.1 percent, compared with 7.8 percent in 2012. This decline in overall GDP growth is associated with the downturn in the petroleum sector, which saw a decrease in production from 2012. Because there was a greater decline in oil production from mature oilfields than forecast, the growth rate for oil GDP was negative in both 2012 and 2013. (See Table 1.) Leaving aside the petroleum sector, the Chadian economy posted a growth rate of 5.0 percent, compared with 11.6 percent in 2012, reflecting a decline in farm output from the record level posted in 2012. That 2012 farm output record reflected a combination of favorable rainfall levels and the government’s efforts through the National Food Security Program (PNSA). Tractor assembled by SIMATRAC 4 The government has provided farmers with tractors 5 and seed, while encouraging private- sector initiatives to foster the irrigation-based growing of out-of-season crops. Thanks to this policy, products such as vegetables and tuber crops are found in markets almost year-round, even during the dry season, and there has been a significant improvement in farm output during the last two crop seasons in spite of some upsets due to reduced rainfall. 4 Farm Machinery Assembly Company [Société Industrielle de Montage et d’Assemblage des Matériels Agricoles]. 5 The government has established a farm machinery assembly company. - 19 - Table 1: Evolution of GDP, 2012 to 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 projection forecast Real GDP growth 7.8 4.1 13.6 17.3 Oil GDP growth –3.5 –10.5 16.7 7.0 Non-oil GDP growth 13.0 10.7 12.4 14.0 Source: Macroeconomic Framework Committee, Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB). The breakdown of GDP growth shows that the primary sector has made a smaller contribution to growth than the secondary and tertiary sectors. This is due essentially to, first, the decline in farm output in 2013 compared with 2012, despite a large proportion of the budget being devoted to the rural sector and particularly to the development of agriculture in accordance with the commitments undertaken in Maputo, Mozambique, in 2003 and, second, the decline in oil production. In 2013 there was a 19 percent decrease compared with 2012, but a 12 percent increase compared with the average for the last five years, bearing in mind that the crop season started later than usual and the rains ended earlier than usual. The secondary sector, with the largest contribution to GDP, benefited from strong performance in manufacturing, from ongoing implementation of the buildings and public- works policy, from the blossoming of new industries in the energy sector, and from construction, refining, and the newly reinvigorated cotton industry. The tertiary sector, ranked in second place among the three sectors, accounts for a high level of job creation. Its impetus comes from transport, telecommunications, and wholesale and retail commerce. Chart 1: Evolution of GDP growth and contribution by sector 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 2011 2012 2013 2014 Secteur primaire Secteur secondaire Secteur tertiaire PIB - 20 - Source: INSEED. Legend for Chart 1 French English Secteur primaire Primary sector Secteur secondaire Secondary sector Secteur tertiaire Tertiary sector PIB GDP Prices. Despite the deregulation of prices for certain products such as cement or petroleum products, the overall level of prices stabilized during 2013. The inflation rate at the end of December 2013 was 0.4 percent, compared with 7.7 percent in 2012. This slowdown in inflation is chiefly the result of strong performance during the 2012 crop season, which led to a substantial decline in prices for food products. The government is committed to further stepping up its efforts to capitalize on farm-sector results, with the aim of preserving the people’s real purchasing power. This will be done by intensifying farm production not dependent on rainfall, as one of the PNSA’s high-priority actions. The government’s efforts have led to a regular, significant reduction in the non-oil primary public-sector deficit. Expressed as a proportion of non-oil GDP, it declined from 20.1 percent in 2010 to 17.6 percent in 2013. The overall budget balance, which in 2010 posted a deficit of more than 9 percent of non-oil GDP, improved to a slight surplus in 2012. Nevertheless, oil revenues were lower in 2013 by about 1.5 percent of non-oil GDP compared with the budget target. This resulted in an overall budget deficit of about six percent of non-oil GDP. This oil-sector shortfall is attributable to various noncyclical and technical factors inherent in that sector. In 2013, non-oil budget revenues increased by 1.3 percent of non-oil GDP. This performance is due to the implementation of action plans by the principal organizational units responsible for financial matters, particularly in the areas of broadening the tax base, combating fraud, and strengthening the capacities of those units’ personnel. Although non-oil tax revenues remain modest compared with the revenues of other oil producing countries in the region, those revenues nevertheless accounted for 8.7 percent of non-oil GDP, a level not seen during the past 10 years. In 2013, government revenues represented 33.4 percent of GDP, led by oil revenues (57 percent of the total). Grants represented 9.8 percent of total revenues. There was a significant increase in capital expenditure due to the massive investment in infrastructure needed to underpin the economy. In addition, in the first quarter of 2013, Chad’s military intervention in Mali cost nearly CFAF 160 billion, or 3.3 percent of non-oil GDP. With the predicted increase in oil revenues, the deficit is expected to close from 2014 onward. - 21 - Table 2: Government finances, 2011 to 2015 (as a percentage of GDP) 2014 2015 2011 2012 2013 projection forecast Revenues 33.4 27.7 25.5 28.7 30.5 Non-oil revenues 7.7 8.3 8.4 8.8 9.2 Government expenditures 32.8 31.1 31.5 29.5 30.0 Current expenditures 15.7 17,0 17.4 16.6 15.9 Capital expenses 17,0 14.1 14.1 12.9 14.0 Balance 0.6 –3.3 –6.0 –0.8 0.5 Source: Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB). The stock of public debt, which was 28 percent of GDP in 2012 (of which 7 percent was for domestic debt), represented 30.2 percent of GDP in 2013 (of which 6.9 percent was for domestic debt and 23.2 percent for external debt). The government reaffirms the importance it attaches to public debt sustainability. As a demonstration of its determination, it has canceled a US$2 billion framework agreement for nonconcessional credit which had been signed with a forum banking institution and which could adversely affect debt sustainability. Still, faced with exceptional circumstances (a temporary decline in oil revenues as discussed above, urgent security expenditures in relation to the regional context, delays in domestic financing), the government has taken out a loan from an oil company in the form of advance payments on sales of oil. It should also be noted that the government intends to take advantage of the increase in oil revenues forecast for 2015 to speed up the pace of paying down its domestic debt. Chad signed a staff-monitored program with the International Monetary Fund in July 2013. Pending the results of that program, now being evaluated, Chad will be eligible for the TFPs’ Extended Credit Facility (ECF) program. Achieving that objective will bolster the sustainability of government finances and improve the debt profile by significantly reducing the high risk of overindebtedness. Monetary situation and balance of payments. The money supply increased 8.0 percent in 2013 despite a decline of 12.0 percent in the country’s net foreign assets in the operations account of the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) following the decline in oil export revenues. This increase in the money supply is due primarily to a 20 percent increase in credit in the economy. As a result, the financing rate in the economy is on the order of 10 percent compared with an average of 20 percent in the CAEMC zone it should also be noted that the Chadian banking system is highly dependent on the public sector because nearly 90 percent of net bank profits are made on government contracts (particularly the construction of basic infrastructure). - 22 - Since 2010, the current deficit on the balance of payments has been relatively stable, in the range of 6 percent to 9 percent of non-oil GDP. External financing requirements are covered in part by foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, especially in connection with the oil sector where FDI flows represented 4 percent of non-oil GDP in 2013. However, owing to a decline in government deposits to be BEAC, among other things, foreign exchange reserves represented only 1.7 months’ worth of imports and goods and services at the end of 2013 compared with 2.5 months’ worth one year earlier. The country’s exports are dominated by oil (which represents roughly 80 percent of total exports), followed by livestock, cotton, and gum arabic. Most imports consist of purchases of manufactured goods by oil producers for their industrial operations and government purchases relating to the public investment program. The services and revenue account shows a very substantial deficit. Foreign aid has been stable in recent years, totaling close to CFAF 3 trillion during the period 2008 to 2012 (see table). The expected developments in oil and cotton output should lead to a significant increase in exports in the coming years. These additional resources could, first, improve the net external position and, second, increase the physical space and make possible improved financing of the public investment program without compromising the sustainability of the public accounts. In 2014 and 2015, the expected real GDP growth rates were estimated at 13.6 percent and 17.3 percent respectively, because of the expected renewal of petroleum development, the bringing into operation of new industrial zones, and the strengthening pace of production in other areas of the economy, in particular agriculture, commerce, and transport. This acceleration of growth will also benefit government efforts in the area of public investment, particularly as regards the construction of basic infrastructure. Constraints and challenges One of Chad’s advantages is a not-insignificant potential for developing petroleum resources. Oil production began in 2003, doubling the country’s GDP and leading to exceptional growth rates in several years in a context of keeping inflation under control. Nevertheless, growth will continue to remain fragile so long as it is highly dependent on oil resources, which are not unlimited, and on consistent rainfall. The main challenge is therefore to take greater advantage of non-oil resources to create value-added chains in the non-oil sector, thereby diversifying the national economy by creating niche markets to contribute to the structural transformation of the economy and spin-off effects to the benefit of people’s standards of living. 1.3 Poverty in Chad The statistical data used to analyze poverty in Chad come from the most recent ECOSIT 3 survey conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics and Economic and Demographic Research [Institut National de la Statistique, des Études Économiques et Démographiques] (INSEED). That survey, conducted in 2011 and published in 2013, is based on a - 23 - representative sample nationwide, stratified according to place of residence (urban versus rural) and region. That stratification makes it possible to focus on rural poverty and assess the impact of government policies. Household consumption and poverty. In 2011, average annual expenditure per capita was CFAF 231,190, ranging from CFAF 66,321 in the poorest households to CFAF 617,292 in the wealthiest. The majority of households consisted of fewer than four people (75.7 percent), and were mostly headed by men (79.2 percent) with ages ranging from 24 years to 64 years (81.9 percent). Eight out of ten heads of household were married and most were living in rural areas. Households with the poorest heads of household were made up of the largest numbers of people. At least half of them worked in agriculture. Six out of ten heads of household had no education and two out of ten had only primary-school education. Seven out of ten households (70.8 percent) were economically active and self- employed. The poorest were those with the least education although they were the most economically active (73.5 percent), largely working in agriculture (ECOSIT 3, INSEED/MPCI, Final Report, June 2013). In the wealthiest households, per capita expenditure was 9.3 times as much as in the poorest. The divide between average expenditure in the richest households and average expenditure in the poorest was greater in those households headed by men (9.4 times as much) than in those headed by women (8.7 times as much). As to the place of residence, urban households had higher expenditure than rural households and, even though the disparities were very great in both, the divide was greater among rural households where expenditure in the wealthiest was 9.1 times as much as in the poorest. As to the share of total consumer household expenditure, for the wealthiest households this was 29.9 percent of total consumer expenditure whereas for the poorest households the figure was only 9 percent. N’Djamena showed the highest disparity, where the poorest households’ share of total consumer expenditure was less than 1 percent, compared with 57.8 percent for the wealthiest (ECOSIT 3, INSEED/MPCI, Final Report, June 2013). Geographical analysis of poverty in 2011. The data from ECOCIT 3 show that the regions hardest hit by poverty (an incidence of over 60 percent) are Mandoul (70.9 percent), Guéra (66.5 percent), Logone Occidental (66.4 percent), Tandjilé (65.3 percent), Moyen Chari (61.4 percent), compared with 11 percent for N’Djamena and over 30 percent for the rest of the regions. The same disparities are also evident in regard to both the depth and the severity of poverty, as these are the poorest regions with the deepest, most severe poverty. The poverty depth and severity indicators are respectively 2.4 and 0.8 for N’Djamena, and range from 24.2 (Tandjilé) to 30.8 (Mandoul) for depth of poverty, and 11.7 (Tandjilé) to 16.7 (Guéra) for severity of poverty. - 24 - Table 3: Poverty index Place of residence; area of residence; Incidence Depth Severity Share region of residence Place of residence N’Djamena 11.0 4.9 2.4 1.9 Other urban areas 28.8 14.4 7.8 6.3 Rural areas 52.5 29.9 18.3 91.8 Area of residence Urban areas 20.9 10.2 5.4 8.2 Rural areas 52.5 29.9 18.3 91.8 Region of residence Bahr El Gazel 42.6 23.7 14.3 1.0 Batha 45.6 22.6 12.2 3.6 Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti 41.8 21.7 12.1 1.6 Chari Baguirmi 41.1 22.4 12.9 5.0 Guéra 66.5 41.2 27.6 7.0 Hadjer Lamis 45.7 26.4 16.6 5.9 Kanem 34.8 19.4 11.7 2.8 Lac [Lake] 46.3 23.9 13.2 3.5 Logone Occidental [West Logone] 66.4 40.4 26.2 9.7 Logone Oriental [East Logone] 48.6 26.9 15.9 8.4 Mandoul 70.9 43.9 28.6 9.9 Mayo Kebbi Est [East Mayo Kebbi] 38.2 20.9 12.3 6.0 Mayo Kebbi Ouest [West Mayo Kebbi] 47.4 24.9 13.9 6.6 Moyen Chari 61.4 36.2 22.8 6.2 N’Djamena 11.0 4.9 2.4 1.9 Ouaddai 34.8 17.9 10.0 4.8 Salamat 48.4 26.9 16.0 3.0 Sila 36.7 18.4 9.8 2.0 Tandjilé 65.3 37.5 23.0 7.8 Wadi Fira 38.4 20.4 12.0 3.2 CHAD 46.7 26.3 15.9 100 Source: ECOSIT 3, INSEED/MPCI, Final Report, June 2013. Dynamic of income poverty in Chad. Income poverty is assessed by means of the customary indicators, namely the incidence, depth, and severity of poverty. Those indicators have been calculated on the basis of annual poverty thresholds per capita of CFAF 144,570 in 2003 and CFAF 237,942 in 2011. Between 2003 and 2011, there was a decline in the incidence of income poverty associated with the policies and programs implemented in poverty reduction strategies (PRS 1 and PRS 2). The rate of income poverty (or incidence of income poverty) was estimated at 46.7 percent in 2011 compared with 55 percent in 2003. Although the figure fell from 2003 to 2011, the phenomenon of poverty is more widespread in rural than in urban areas: in 2011 the incidence of income poverty was 52.5 percent in rural areas, 11.0 percent in N’Djamena, and 28.8 percent in other urban centers. - 25 - Poverty declined slightly in both rural areas and other urban centers. However, between 2003 and 2011, it declined most rapidly in N’Djamena, where it fell from 20.8 percent in 2003 to 11 percent in 2011, or 9.8 percentage points. Chart 2: Dynamic of poverty 2003 2011 Legend for Chart 2, where applicable French English Tchad Chad Overall, there are only six regions where poverty increased: Logone Occidental (8.8 percentage points), Guéra (3.7 percentage points), Tandjilé (3.2 percentage points), Sila (2.3 percentage points), Mandoul (1.6 points), and Ouaddaï (0.4 percentage points). In all other regions it declined. The pace of the decline in poverty shows that some regions fared better than others. Particularly noteworthy are the declines seen in the regions of Mayo Kebbi-Ouest (24.3 percentage points), Kanem (19.3 percentage points), Wadi Fira (16.8 percentage points), Logone Oriental (16.1 percentage points), Salamat (14.4 percentage points), Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti (13.4 percentage points), and Barh El Gazel (11.5 percentage points). In the remaining regions the decline was scarcely 10 percentage points, namely Batha, Hadjer-Lamis, Guéra, Lac, Moyen Chari, Chari Baguirmi, and the city of N’Djamena. However, disparities grew between 2003 and 2011 as reflected in the depth and severity indicators. - 26 - Table 4: Poverty indicators 2003 2011 Poverty indicators Change (ECOSIT 2) (ECOSIT 3) Poverty threshold (CFA francs) 144,570 237,942 65% Incidence of income poverty (%) 55.0 46.7 –8.3 Depth of poverty (%) 21.6 26.3 4.7 Severity of poverty (%) 10.8 15.9 5.1 Source: ECOSIT 3, INSEED, June 2013. 1.4 Poverty and human development In spite of its enormous potential in a wide range of resource areas (mining, petroleum, land, etc.) and strong macroeconomic performance in recent years, Chad remains one of the poorest countries in the world with a Human Development Index (HDI) of 0.34 in 2013, a population estimated at 12.7 million people, a population density of 10 people per square kilometer, and rapid population growth (3.6 percent a year). However, the country has a relatively low degree of urbanization (22 percent) (INSEED 2012). Progress in achieving the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Overall, the MDGs have seen only modest progress except for target 2 under MDG-1—halving the number of people who are malnourished—which has been achieved (with a reduction of 51.2 percent 6) and target 10 under MDG-7—providing access to safe drinking water—which has posted an achievement level of 78 percent. Although the poverty rate was estimated at 46.7 percent in 2011, it is expected to fall in 2013, given the average 6 percent economic growth for the period 2012-2013. Moreover, according to recent projections, economic growth should be about 13.6 percent in 2014, which would further confirm a favorable trend toward a decline in the incidence of income poverty, despite the fact that no recent poverty profile for Chad is available. Along the same lines, purchasing power as reflected in real per capita income has shown a positive trend: +6 percent in 2012 and +0.5 percent in 2013. It is even forecast that this place will be maintained or even accelerated in 2014 (9.6 percent) and 2015 (3.7 percent). A differentiated analysis of poverty shows a significant divergence between rural and urban areas. INSEED data for 2011 show that the regions hardest hit by poverty (an incidence of over 60 percent) are Mandoul (70.9 percent), Guéra (66.5 percent), Logone Occidental (66.4 percent), Tandjilé (65.3 percent), Moyen Chari (61.4 percent), compared with 6 The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2013, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). - 27 - 11 percent for N’Djamena and over 30 percent for the rest of the regions. The same disparities are also evident in regard to both the depth and the severity of poverty, as these are the poorest regions with the deepest, most severe poverty. The poverty depth and severity indicators are respectively 2.4 and 0.8 for N’Djamena, and range from 24.2 (Tandjilé) to 30.8 (Mandoul) for depth of poverty, and 11.7 (Tandjilé) to 16.7 (Guéra) for severity of poverty. In spite of the favorable economic growth trends that give hope that the breadth of poverty can be reduced, the Human Development Report 2013 (UNDP) confirms how wide the disparities are in Chad, with a Gini coefficient of 39.8, which highlights the challenges associated with implementing policies that will permit a better distribution of the benefits of growth and strengthening of social protection of the most vulnerable groups, to combat extreme poverty and reduce disparities between different socioeconomic groups. - 28 - Part 2. Mechanisms for implementing and monitoring the PND 2.1 Introduction and contextual overview To ensure that implementation of the PND will be sound and satisfactory, the government has established an operational framework for coordination and for monitoring and evaluation. The purpose of this framework is to facilitate access on the part of stakeholders to information with a view to assuring the coordination and evaluation of actions that form part of the global and sectoral strategies for the country’s development. Consequently, plans call for adopting some legal and regulatory texts, organizing the monitoring and evaluation apparatus, and optimizing coordination mechanisms and systems. Underpinning the PND are results-based management principles. Recent planning for Chad’s development has been characterized by the implementation of two successive poverty reduction strategies: NPRS 1, covering the period 2003 to 2007; and NPRS 2, covering the period 2008 to 2011. The PND, which carries on from NPRS 1 and NPRS 2, is aimed at achieving better results for the country than those yielded by the previous two strategies. It covers the time frame 2013 to 2015 and seeks to strengthen the foundations of economic growth, accelerate the process of improving living standards, and lay the basis for implementing a development plan covering a much longer time frame with a view to achieving the country’s objectives set out in Vision 2030. 2.2 Apparatus for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the PND To ensure that the PND is being monitored closely, the government has called for an implementation report to be prepared for 2013 followed by two evaluations, a midterm evaluation in 2014 and a final evaluation in 2015. The purpose of those evaluations, incorporating an analysis of the status of the MDGs, is to monitor the progress being made in achieving the MDGs and the expected outcomes, and propose corrective measures to improve implementation of the PND. The system for the monitoring and evaluation of the 2013-2015 PND is based on a participatory approach which will make it possible to assess the outputs (goods and services delivered) and the degree to which each of the PND’s programs has achieved its expected outcomes. It is an ongoing process of dialogue and consensus between stakeholders, focused on gathering the information needed for decision-making. The system is based on (i) respect for the responsibilities and terms of reference of the various entities concerned, (ii) the implementation and operationalization of dialogue and consensus frameworks at the national, regional, and sectoral levels, (iii) the development of appropriate tools for information- gathering, (iv) production of high-quality data that are reliable and useful, produced regularly, (v) utilization of data in decision-making, and (vi) partnership in designing and managing the system. The institutional framework, implemented to measure performance, consists of an Interministerial PND Oversight Board (HCIO), a Technical Steering Committee (CTP), - 29 - Regional Monitoring Committees (CRSs) and a Dialogue and Consensus Framework between the Government and Partners (CCEP). These bodies’ duties and responsibilities are laid out in Directive 1404/PR/PM/MEPCI/CAB/2013 of May 28, 2013, establishing the institutional framework for the coordination, monitoring, and implementation of the evaluation of the 2013-2015 PND. Interministerial PND Oversight Board. This is the political body to oversee the PND’s implementation. It is responsible for (i) examining and assessing the evolution of the PND’s implementation, drawing conclusions from its findings, and setting out directions, (ii) taking the necessary measures to ensure that the PND’s objectives are met, (iii) supporting the mobilization of the resources necessary to fund the PND, and (iv) validating and publishing the reports prepared by the Technical Steering Committee. This committee has not met in 2013. Technical Steering Committee. This is the technical body of the PND apparatus. Its main functions are (i) to monitor and evaluate the PND’s overall implementation, (ii) to propose adjustments and corrections as required, and (iii) to provide for the technical validation of the annual monitoring reports on the implementation of the PND and the MDGs prepared by the Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate of the Ministry of Planning. This committee has held three meetings in 2013, notably to refine the monitoring and evaluation tools (the PAP and the results-management framework). Regional Monitoring Committees. These serve as a dialogue and consensus framework between political, technical, and administrative officials, eminent persons, local communities, private-sector representatives, and CSOs in regard to development issues at the regional level. These regional committees to monitor the PND’s implementation, set up under directives issued by the Minister of Economy and Planning or the Governor, are responsible for monitoring the PND’s implementation at the regional level. Their functions are (i) to help raise the local population’s awareness of the PND’s objectives, (ii) to gather and analyze data on the PND’s implementation, (iii) to make recommendations, and (iv) to produce local reports on the monitoring and evaluation of the PND and transmit them to the CTP. The setting up of the regional monitoring committees, originally planned for November 2013 in conjunction with the regional missions to raise awareness, has been pushed back to 2014. Dialogue and Consensus Framework between Government and Partners. This provides a forum for regular dialogue and consensus between the ministries involved in implementing the PND and technical and financial partners. Its functions are (i) to examine the progress being made in implementing the PND’s programs and projects, (ii) to assess the level of domestic and external resources that must be mobilized to fund the various programs and projects, and (iii) on the basis of the PND monitoring reports, to examine practical ways to follow up on the recommendations they contain. - 30 - Chart 3: Institutional apparatus for implementing, monitoring, and evaluating the PND Haut Conseil interministériel PTF d’orientation du PND Ministère du Plan et de la Comité Bipartite coopération internationale Gouvernement-PTF Comité technique de Pilotage Secrétariat permanent de Cellules de Suivi mise en œuvre du PND : Sectorielles Direction Suivi-évaluation Ministère des Comités régionaux de suivi Finances et du du PND Budget (DEP et Budget) INSEED Ministères sectoriels Société civile et secteur privé Legend for Chart 3 French English Haut Conseil interministériel d’orientation du PND Interministerial PND Oversight Board Ministère du Plan et de la coopération Ministry of Planning and International internationale Cooperation Secrétariat permanent de mise en œuvre du Permanent Secretariat for implementation of the PND : Direction Suivi-évaluation PND: Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate Ministère des Finances et du Budget Ministry of Finance and Budget (DEP et Budget) (DEP and Budget) Comité technique de Pilotage Technical Steering Committee Comités régionaux de suivi du PND PND Regional Monitoring Committees INSEED INSEED PTF TFPs Comité Bipartite Gouvernement-PTF Bipartite Government-TFP Committee Cellules de Suivi Sectorielles Sector Monitoring Units Ministères sectoriels Sector ministries Société civile et secteur privé Civil society and the private sector One of the principles governing this institutional apparatus is that there must be dialogue and consensus among all actors (the government, TFPs, civil society, and the private sector) at all levels. This institutional apparatus also reflects the decentralization process. The principles that must guide the implementation of the PND are as follows: - 31 - • Respect for the PND’s priorities. The PND serves as a single reference framework for all activities pertaining to the country’s development. The various cooperation programs have to contribute effectively to realizing those priorities. Accordingly, the government’s budget will reflect those priorities in the allocation of resources. • Sharing of information. In the framework of implementing the PND, it is essential that information be shared to ensure that coordination is successful. Accordingly, the government will pursue its efforts to encourage exchanges of information regarding budget management, reports, and evaluation findings. Such sharing of information is equally necessary with and by technical and financial partners. • Concerted, coordinated monitoring. The authorities will continue to produce evaluation reports as source material for workshop groups doing annual reviews of the PND. Within the framework of dynamic dialogue and consensus, it is important that other actors, particularly from the private sector and civil society, produce independent reports. Constraints and challenges One major constraint is the lack of statistical data to assure effective monitoring of development activities and projected annual targets. 2.3 Functioning of the monitoring and evaluation mechanism Monitoring and evaluation of the 2013-2015 PND are is based on two tools: (i) monitoring the execution of the Priority Action Plan (PAP); and (ii) monitoring the results-measurement framework (24 strategic-results indicators and 65 intermediate-results indicators). 7 These tools were devised in 2013 in participatory fashion with domestic actors and development partners as a group. The same is true for the present report, for which the preparation process included the following: (i) Work by the interministerial committee of national experts, to compile sector reports and validate the plan for preparing the report; (ii) The Bakara retreat (April 25 to 27, 2014), which enabled the first draft of the report to be prepared; (iii) Ongoing work by the interministerial committee of experts to refine and improve the draft resulting from the Bakara retreat; (iv) Sharing of the refined, improved draft with TFPs for their comments; 7 The results-measurement framework includes the 15 HIPC Initiative trigger indicators. - 32 - (v) A meeting of the PND’s Technical Steering Committee on June 10, 2014, to validate the report in conjunction with government administrations, civil society, labor unions, and the private sector. This report has, for the first time, been prepared under the direction of the Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate of the Ministry of Planning, with support from UNDP and French experts. This exercise has made it possible to identify not only some difficulties but also some successes which it is worthwhile pointing out. To facilitate dialogue and coordination between the Ministry of Planning and the sector ministries, the need became apparent to set up sector monitoring units within the 27 ministries involved in implementing the PND. As a rule, these sector monitoring units are made up of the program’s and project’s financial officer and research director. The units make it possible for officials in the Monitoring and Evaluation Directorate to have direct representatives within each of the sector ministries that they are responsible for monitoring. This has been useful both for developing monitoring and evaluation tools and for monitoring PND implementation in 2013. However, it must be noted that the lack of technical, financial, and material capacities has made it difficult to collect and analyze data for preparing this report. Even though some ministries have operational tools (such as performance-management frameworks, with impact and results indicators) and qualified personnel to monitor their policies, their capacities need to be strengthened. PND funding and alignment with the government’s budget In general terms, multiyear budget programming, of which each annual segment is determined by the Budget Law, is consistent with the 2013-2015 PND’s Priority Action Plan (PAP) and the Three-Year Public Investment Program (PTIP). The budget for the 2013-2015 PND’s first year of implementation will be CFAF 3,726.79 billion, or approximately US$7.5 billion. It is evident from the chart below that most of the expenditure is for activities relating to the PND’s first pillar—production and job creation— representing 66 percent of the budget envelope. The second pillar—developing human capital—represents 27 percent. The third pillar—protection of the environment—represents 5 percent. And the fourth pillar—governance—represents 2 percent. The government intends to cover 45.01 percent of the budget envelope with its own resources. The funding gap will be made up with support from various bilateral and multilateral financial partners and the private sector (within the framework of public-private partnerships (PPPs)). Commitments by partners up to now represent approximately 23.30 percent of the budget envelope, leaving a gap of approximately 31.68 percent of the initial forecast budget. - 33 - Chart 4: Initial breakdown of the PND’s cost, by pillar (percentages) 5 2 27 66 Production et création des emplois Capital humain Environnement Gouvernance Source: 2013-2015 PND. Legend for Chart 4 French English Production et création des emplois Production and job creation Environnement Environment Capital humain Human capital Gouvernance Governance After the PND and the PAP had been adopted, it became apparent that, from the first year of implementation, the PAP had weaknesses. A substantial number of projects could not be completed within the time frame laid down; budget programming figures were somewhat imprecise; and it was difficult to establish a linkage between the government budget on the one hand and the projects and programs on the other. Moreover, the external funding figures indicated did not necessarily match the figures in the funding agreements with technical and financial partners. To make the PAP an operational tool for the PND, the government updated it using the following methodology. First was to consider projects already under way and bankable projects that could be completed during the period covered by the PND. Next to be considered were cases where public tendering had already been approved or for which approval was under way, as well as various supports for agencies under supervision included in the government budget when they fell within the framework of the PND’s development priorities. As for budget programming, projects for which funding had not yet been confirmed were rescheduled for the 2014-2015 biennium. Thus, all the commitments relating to PND priorities (including cases involving public tendering) under sector ministries involved in the PND were included in monitoring the PAP. - 34 - With respect to external financing, the Directorate General of International Cooperation centralized and compiled forecasts of disbursements from TFPs and/or under funding agreements signed with TFPs in connection with the 2013-2015 PND. This made it possible to prepare the 2014-2016 Three-Year Public Investment Program based on external financing, from which data for the 2014-2015 biennium could then be extracted. Inasmuch as external financing for the year 2013 had already been included in the 2013 Budget Law, the Minister opted to retain the amounts that had been communicated in 2012. Once the PAP had been revised this way, it totaled approximately CFAF 3,276 billion8 for the 2013-2015 period, 12 percent less than the initial figure. The new cost breakdown by pillar shows that Pillars 1 and 2 relating to productive sectors and human capital account for the bulk of the cost, 59 percent and 27 percent respectively of the PAP, while Pillars 3 and 4 account for only 7 percent and 6 percent respectively. The total cost of the PAP breaks down by sector as follows: infrastructure (43 percent), rural development (23 percent), health (11 percent), education (11 percent), governance (7 percent), and the private sector (5 percent). Chart 5: PAP cost breakdown, by area of priority Series1 Series1 Secteur privé Gouvernance Développement 5% 234,265,505,729 rural Series1 Education 7% 762,056,847,518 361,050,030,073 23% 11% Series1 Santé 360,696,929,504 11% Series1 Infrastructures 1,392,099,951,381 43% Source: PAP, 2013 PND. 8 Excluding the PNSA. - 35 - Legend for Chart 5 French English Développement rural Rural development Infrastructures Infrastructure Santé Health Education Education Secteur privé Private sector Gouvernance Governance Table 5: Allocation of the 2013-2015 PND forecast budget by subsector and by source of funding (both funding confirmed and funding yet to be determined) Total cost, 2013-2015 (in billions of CFA francs) Strategy Government TFPs To be determined Total PILLAR 1: Developing production supply and opportunities for decent employment Rural sector development and food security 139.34 162.20 143.75 445.29 Job creation and training 0.67 4.55 11.40 16.62 Private sector development 131.91 10.16 39.04 181.11 Development of basic economic 683.90 329.85 233.38 1 247.12 infrastructure Research and development 8.92 0.70 – 9.62 Regional integration 5.19 10.75 29.03 44.97 Mobilizing the skills and abilities of 0.43 2.25 2.00 4.68 Chadian expatriates TOTAL – PILLAR 1 970.36 520.45 458.60 1,949.41 PILLAR 2: Mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion Education 111.855 111.855 111.855 335.566 Health 222.61 64.17 23.88 310.67 Nutrition 0.20 13.50 – 13.70 Clean drinking water, hygiene, and 145.55 – – 145.55 sanitation Social protection, equity promotion, and 23.04 5.19 2.80 31.02 gender equality Population – 0.90 – 0.900 Housing 12.05 0.20 – 12.25 Recreation/youth/sports 19.89 0.30 1.70 21.89 Culture 9.96 1.09 12.10 23.15 TOTAL – PILLAR 2 545.14 197.21 152.33 894.68 PILLAR 3: Environmental protection and combating climate change The fight to save Lake Chad and other 1.861 19.902 0 21.763 ecosystems Rural, urban, and suburban land planning 25.584 28.995 2.000 56.579 - 36 - Total cost, 2013-2015 (in billions of CFA francs) Strategy Government TFPs To be determined Total Risk and disaster prevention and 38.757 31.891 0.650 71.298 management Fighting desertification and preserving 32.571 27.629 11.315 71.515 biodiversity TOTAL – PILLAR 3 98.773 108.417 13.965 221.155 PILLAR 4: Improving governance Modernizing the State and reforming the 67.976 18.857 3.955 90.788 civil service Strengthening decentralization 18.373 9.690 0 28.063 Promoting human rights, peace, and social 25.535 26.164 14.262 65.961 cohesion Pursuing justice reform, affirmative 12.912 7.287 5.318 25.517 consolidation of the public sector, and good governance TOTAL – PILLAR 4 124.796 61.998 23.535 210.329 TOTAL – PAP 1,739.07 888.07 648.43 3,275.572 Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI). The total cost of implementing the 2013-2015 PND is CFAF 3,275 billion. The government intends to cover 53.4 percent of that. Commitments by partners are expected to cover 28 percent, leaving a funding gap of 18.6 percent. Chart 6: The PAP’s sources of funding (percentages) Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. - 37 - Legend for Chart 6 French English ETAT Government PTFs TFPs GAP Funding gap Working from an analysis of the execution status of the projects that have been approved, the PND’s budget programming has been done on a year-by-year basis. The table below sets out the funding requirements for 2013, 2014, and 2015. The 2013 budget represents 22.7 percent of the total cost, the 2014 budget represents 35.5 percent, and the 2015 budget represents 41.7 percent. This budget programming is based on the country’s macroeconomic framework, thereby ensuring that the PND’s costs are aligned with the government’s budget. The funding gap is on the order of CFAF 609 billion, or 18.6 percent of the PAP’s total cost. The funding gap pertains only to the 2014-2015 biennium. As indicated above, the budget programming for 2013 comprises only those projects with confirmed funding from the government or from its technical and financial partners so that, following the review of the PAP, there is no funding gap for 2013. Table 6: Allocation of the PND’s cost year by year (in billions of CFA francs) 2013 programmed 2014 programmed 2015 programmed Government 614.6 539.0 597.0 TFPs 244.7 241.6 429.3 Funding gap 0 77.4 532.0 Total 859.3 857.9 1,558.3 Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation. The government’s commitment to implementing the National Development Plan is evidenced by the fact that its budget is aligned with the priorities of the Priority Action Program. Indeed, in the government’s 2014 budget, 77 percent of the allocation under Part 3, “Transfers and subsidies,” and 89 percent of the allocation under Part 5, “Investments,” are to finance activities forming part of the PAP. - 38 - Table 7: Project budget programming Project budget programming—PAP/2014 PND Government Share of Ministry Part III Part IV budget destined Total Envelopes Allocations Envelopes Allocations for the PAP Social Action 2,350,000,000 1,888,000,000 4,780,000,000 5,142,243,738 7,030,243,738 99% Crop Growing 46,380,000,000 20,259,348,553 8,445,938,025 32,804,905,490 53,064,254,043 97% Land Management and 4,150,000,000 4,150,000,000 7,500,000,000 7,500,000,000 11,650,000,000 100% Planning Affirmative Consolidation 0 0 500,000,000 430,000,000 430,000,000 86% Civil Aviation 500,000,000 500,000,000 7,000,000,000 6,544,879,280 7,044,879,280 94% Commerce 4,700,000,000 4,400,000,000 1,876,421,910 1,735,000,000 6,135,000,000 93% Culture 1,200,000,000 1,170,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,438,915,000 2,608,915,000 82% Human Rights 0 0 500,000,000 492,981,470 492,981,470 99% Livestock Raising 3,000,000,000 2,870,000,000 14,600,000,000 13,250,000,000 16,120,000,000 92% Energy and Petroleum 25,000,000,000 24,770,000,000 6,400,000,000 5,677,000,000 30,447,000,000 97% Primary Education 15,540,000,000 15,400,000,000 10,260,260,000 10,430,260,000 25,830,260,000 100% Secondary Education 40,000,000 40,000,000 5,060,000,000 4,700,000,000 4,740,000,000 93% Postsecondary Education 31,956,642,000 31,956,642,000 15,694,740,000 12,694,740,000 44,651,382,000 94% Environment 1,400,000,000 1,205,000,000 5,867,000,000 5,229,776,500 6,434,776,500 89% Finance 35,719,500,000 12,640,000,000 21,620,000,000 11,619,289,000 24,259,289,000 42% Civil Service 450,000,000 370,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,940,000,000 2,310,000,000 94% Water Systems 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 7,301,663,000 7,010,734,911 8,010,734,911 96% Infrastructure 2,890,000,000 0 200,231,742,000 155,132,916,649 155,132,916,649 76% Youth and Sports 2,500,000,000 2,500,000,000 4,000,000,000 3,377,907,728 5,877,907,728 90% Justice 1,000,000,000 1,000,000,000 6,110,000,000 5,204,515,800 6,204,515,800 87% Microfinance 3,500,000,000 3,500,000,000 700,000,000 130,000,000 3,630,000,000 86% Mines 0 0 3,820,000,000 3,680,000,000 3,680,000,000 96% Planning 1,806,296,000 1,696,296,000 2,500,000,000 2,500,000,000 4,196,296,000 97% Post Office and New 6,200,000,000 6,221,000,000 2,000,000,000 1,810,029,189 8,031,029,189 98% Technologies Health 40,730,000,000 42,987,685,800 28,170,000,000 27,316,000,000 70,303,685,800 102% Public Security 14,268,000,000 10,000,000,000 4,320,000,000 4,195,000,000 14,195,000,000 76% Tourism 1,000,000,000 500,000,000 9,650,000,000 9,650,814,747 10,150,814,747 95% Urban Development and 0 0 9,500,000,000 6,290,000,000 6,290,000,000 66% Housing TOTAL 247,280,438,000 191,023,972,353 392,407,764,935 347,927,909,502 538,951,881,855 84% - 39 - Part 3. PND execution: Performance and results Analysis of the performance of PND implementation 9 shows a relatively positive result. The lack of a yearly target for 2013 does not facilitate an analysis. Nevertheless, 11 out of 16 of the strategic-results indicators saw an improvement (the remaining eight could not be assessed because data were not available); and out of 61 intermediate-results indicators, 58 were assessed of which 27 were also considered to be on track to achieve the 2015 target. With respect to programs under Pillar 1, five strategic indicators out of eight, and 10 intermediate-results indicators out of the 14 for which data were available, saw a net improvement. These were chiefly in the proportionate contribution of agriculture to GDP, the land area developed per year, the number of water points for livestock farmers, the extent of mechanization of farms, food security, the proportion of all-weather roads, the rate of access to electricity, and the rate of access to the Internet. Nevertheless, Chad remains the last country in the Doing Business ranking, and its oil production has fallen. With respect to human capital, six strategic indicators out of eight, and 21 intermediate- results indicators out of the 29 for which data were available, saw an improvement. The rates of poverty, school enrollment, infant and neonatal mortality, HIV prevalence, access to health services, and malnutrition all improved in 2013. Progress is still needed particularly in regard to maternal mortality and the primary-school repeater rate. With respect to the environment and land management and planning, no data were available in 2013 for the one strategic indicator. Two intermediate-results indicators out of three saw an improvement; they relate to the adoption of national and regional land management and planning systems. With respect to governance, most indicators saw improvement, particularly those relating to transparency and the management of government finances, decentralization, and human rights. 9 See Annex 1: Results-measurement framework. - 40 - Table 8: Analysis of the results-measurement framework Number of Number of Number of indicators for indicators showing indicators which data were improvement available Pillar 1 Strategic indicators 8 7 5 Intermediate-results indicators 15 14 10 Pillar 2 Strategic indicators 14 8 6 Intermediate-results indicators 33 29 4 Pillar 3 Strategic indicators 1 0 Intermediate-results indicators 4 3 2 Pillar 4 Strategic indicators 1 1 0 Intermediate-results indicators 13 12 11 Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI). 3.1 Development of production capacities and job opportunities For there to be a significant reduction in poverty, there has to be strong economic growth, supported and unleashed by creating decent jobs in large numbers. Consequently, the government has, through the framework of the PND, decided to develop the economy’s productive capacities and diversify the resources sustaining its growth. The PND therefore includes actions (i) to develop the rural sector and improve food security, (ii) to create jobs and provide training, (iii) to develop the private sector, (iv) to develop basic infrastructure, (v) to promote regional integration, and (vi) to mobilize the skills and abilities of Chadian expatriates. 3.1.1 Rural sector development and food security Agriculture, which is the main economic activity in rural areas, has seen little modernization even though it accounts for the work of nearly 80 percent of the active population. The factors that limit its performance are lack of access to inputs, lack of control of water resources, poor labor and land productivity, lack of control of zootechnical parameters, lack of transport and warehousing infrastructure, weak agricultural extension services, and the lack of services to support producers. Nevertheless, developing agriculture will help to diversify the economy, assure food security, increase export revenues, and create many jobs for youth and for women. - 41 - For the government, the priority is to clear away all constraints on farm activity and work to modernize agriculture through mechanization. There is also a need to distribute inputs and equipment to boost productivity and farm output. Thus, in 2013, the government has provided farmers with 4,000 metric tons of fertilizer and 55,000 liters of pesticides. Nevertheless, these quantities were inadequate since they enabled only 13 percent of all cropland to be covered. As for water resources to support crops, the government has launched a huge project to build infrastructure to provide water for irrigation. Unfortunately, there has been a delay in building some irrigation infrastructure due to lengthy administrative procedures in carrying out bidding exercises and finalizing contracts with successful bidders. No irrigation infrastructure has been completed in 2013 owing to a lack of mobilization of resources. Some modernization of the farm sector has been accomplished through the purchase of 781 tractors properly equipped and 100 cultivators. Gum arabic output has been supported to the training of 5,550 producers, the construction of 12 warehouses (currently under way), and the purchase of equipment. Consequently, annual output of gum arabic has grown 20 percent, from 25,000 metric tons to 30,000 metric tons in 2013. - 42 - Table 9: Evolution of agricultural, forestry, and fisheries output, 2011 to 2014 (with changes from year to year expressed as percentages) 2011 2012 2013 2014 Agriculture –25.3 46.9 –16.1 7.8 Food crops –27.4 50.6 –17.0 7.5 Industrial crops 20.6 –1.2 3.0 12.0 Livestock, forestry, and fisheries 3.9 1.2 3.0 2.8 Source: INSEED. Livestock production increased in 2013, thanks to high seasonal availability of forage throughout the country. The situation of animal health was satisfactory, apart from some cases of anthrax in the area of Lake Chad. Under the Fisheries Development Program (PRODEPECHE), the fisheries subsector benefited in 2013 by the construction of 13 fishing platforms, 28 fisheries offices, eight fish markets, and three unloading installations. Analysis of performance. The indicators used to analyze performance in regard to PND implementation in the rural development and food security sector are as follows: the share of agriculture as a contribution to GDP, the number of water points for livestock producers, the vaccination rate, the extent of mechanization of farms, and the prevalence of malnutrition. The table below shows an interesting progression for all indicators except the prevalence of malnutrition. Overall, the food situation is improving in the Sahelian zone (SMART survey, January to March, 2014): there, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) fell from 21.3 percent in August 2010 to 10.6 percent in March 2014. In Chad, malnutrition continues to be a serious concern associated primarily with problems of food patterns or habits. Table 10: Performance indicators Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 Share of agriculture as a contribution to GDP (percent) 23 25 24.77 Number of water points for livestock producers 1,296 2,396 1,868 Pleuropneumonia vaccination rate (percent) 15 50 18 Mechanization of farms (percent) 24 40 39 Source: Report by the MAE, MEH, and MSP. - 43 - Constraints and challenges associated with the implementation of sector strategies Despite this performance, implementation of the sector strategy has been impeded by the slowness of public bidding procedures, inadequate budget allocations vis-à-vis expressed needs, administrative slowness in mobilizing funds, the limited number of extension officers (owing to aging and retirement), inadequate means of transport, and lack of a national mechanization strategy. 3.1.2 Job creation and training Like other developing countries, Chad has to deal with youth unemployment. Faced with this challenge, the government has identified training and the creation of decent, sustainable employment as an area of high-priority. This problem will be addressed by (i) promoting youth employment in rural and urban areas, (ii) strengthening the legislative, institutional, organizational, and social environment in connection with employment, and (iii) developing human resources and occupational training programs. In 2013, 6,000 young people joined the civil service. 3.1.3 Private sector development In 2013, the government made significant efforts to implement administrative reforms, in particular to improve the business climate in the country based on the World Bank’s 10 Doing Business indicators aimed at lifting the country’s bottom rating. However shortcomings remain in communications and information both domestically and externally; and there is a real need, with the support of the international community, to strengthen human, technical, and physical capacities. In light of the latest edition of Doing Business, in 2014, efforts remain to be made, particularly in regard to delays in registering property title and the ease of transferring property ownership. The basic infrastructure rebuilding program continues to be pursued to make it easier for people and their goods to move about. Public investment in the system of roads and highways has had a very favorable impact on the economy thanks to the improvement of transport connections both within Chad and with neighboring countries. However, the unreliability of the electric power supply and long transit delays at the port of Douala, Cameroon, raised domestic prices and are detrimental to the competitiveness of Chadian businesses. - 44 - Table 11: Performance indicators: Business climate Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 Ease of doing business (ranking) 185/185 173/189 189/189 Number of days to create a new business 62 3 62 Time required to register property title (days) 44 N/A N/A Source: Doing Business. In 2013, dialogue between the government and the private sector was strengthened in regard to issues of overhauling, cleansing, and consolidating the business environment in accordance with the PND’s core directions and the recommendations set out in the white paper from the National Employment Council. As regards the financial sector, several initiatives have been implemented to strengthen the capacities of those involved and to expand the range of financial services, particularly in the microfinance sector, which is an important part of the national strategy to bring people into the financial mainstream. Like other countries in the subregion, Chad has established a regulatory and institutional framework to encourage microfinance, particularly the CAEMC/COBAC regulations on microfinance parameters and prudential rules. Nevertheless, the microfinance sector remains largely undeveloped and faces difficulties hampering its effectiveness. While these difficulties are closely related to the socioeconomic environment, they derive basically from the intrinsic nature of microfinance institutions (MFIs). The vast majority of MFIs are very small, so there are many factors that may cause dysfunction. In 2013, the main MFIs were 154 savings-and-loan associations serving the financial needs of 123,115 customers. Total savings stood at CFAF 5.499 billion and total lending at CFAF 6.675 billion. Despite the difficulties it faces, the microfinance sector has grown significantly. It reflects strong demand for financial products and services close by (the market penetration rate for existing MFIs is just 3 percent, and only 5 percent of the urban population has access to banks). In 2013, communications campaigns targeting the general public, the dissemination of regulatory texts, and training for MFIs all helped to strengthen the sector and put it on a more professional footing. Microfinance professionals now have a framework within which to develop their products and enforce repayment. Consequently, in 2013 the main MFIs in Chad were 154 savings-and-loan associations serving the financial needs of more than 123,000 customers. In the area of tourism and artisan activities, 4,066 artisans in tourist areas have received support from the ministry to bring them into the socioeconomic mainstream. The Ministry of Tourism has established an institutional apparatus to encourage the promotion of this sector (a statement of general tourism development policy, a high-level committee chaired by the Prime Minister to promote tourism, legislation with respect to regulations for businesses in the tourism sector, and a national agency to promote artisan activities). - 45 - Constraints and challenges in implementing the strategy. The implementation of the microfinance sector development strategy is being hampered particularly by the fact that certain amounts allocated to the sector (totaling CFAF 8.5 billion) have not been disbursed, a lack of microfinance institutions in the northern part of the country, weak repayment rates, a shortage of specialized personnel, and the fact that the people have not fully embraced the national microfinance strategy. In addition, the National Investment and Export Agency (ANIE) has already undertaken measures to assist business in Chad by establishing a form for dialogue and consensus- building between government agencies and the private sector. The ANIE is responsible for steering this forum which is to meet every month to discuss urgent reforms. According to a simulation by the ANIE, Chad could move up 35 spots in the Doing Business ranking (i.e., from 189th place to 154th place) if the reforms adopted in the business climate timetable are implemented. This confirms the government’s desire to improve the country’s business climate in order to encourage foreign investment. 3.1.4 Development of basic economic infrastructure The government intends to use the development of basic economic infrastructure as the main tool to consolidate the country’s economic growth and improve its people’s well-being. Actions carried out in this area in 2013 were centered on (i) transport, to overcome obstacles due to Chad’s geographic situation as a landlocked country, (ii) energy, to encourage economic activity, improve the people’s living standards, and broaden access to basic services, and (iii) information and communications technologies (ICTs), to contribute to development of the private sector, liberalization, and modernization of Chadian society. - 46 - In the area of transport, the government is continuing to implement the National Transport Strategy (SNT), as updated for the period 2011 to 2020. The goal for air transport is to strengthen Chad’s capacities in building and operating world-class airports and promote the development of air traffic. Analysis of performance. The following performance indicators are used in assessing the development of the system of roads and highways: (i) all-weather roads as a proportion of the permanent road system; (ii) the number of secondary rural roads rehabilitated; and (iii) paved primary roads. As shown in the table below, in 2013, 86 percent of the permanent road system was usable year-round. The improvement in this indicator is attributable to the rehabilitation and paving of old roads and the building of new ones. Projects currently under way will make it possible to meet the 2015 target. Thanks to major investments by the government, the total length of paved primary roads has been increased from 1,505 kilometers in 2010 to 2,020 kilometers in 2013. To serve rural areas, the network of secondary roads, including rehabilitated roads, was expanded from 2,130 kilometers in 2012 to 3,293 kilometers in 2013, an increase of 1,163 kilometers. These achievements provide the rural population with greater access to district health or referral centers and make it easier to transport goods, take products to market in urban areas, and supply rural areas with essential products (such as medications), while lowering transport costs and making urban and intercity travel more convenient. In 2013, the paved road system was increased to 2,138 kilometers, or 55.07 percent. The rate of access to electric power increased from 3.7 percent in 2011 to 3.9 percent in 2013 as a result of the Farcha II power plant being brought into service (with a capacity of 60 MW) and a further 20 MW from the Djarmaya refinery (on the SNE system). With respect to ICTs, the proportion of households with a telephone increased from 31.6 percent in 2012 to 36.39 percent in 2013. The rate of access to mobile and landline telephones remained unchanged during the period. The rate of Internet access shot up from 4.7 percent in 2012 to 12.91 percent in 2013. This increase is attributable to SotelTchad, which currently offers access to at least six Internet service providers. - 47 - Table 12: Performance indicators: Basic economic infrastructure Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 All-weather roads as a proportion of the permanent road 20% 50% 55.07% and highway system Number of secondary rural roads rehabilitated (kilometers) 2,130 6,000 3,293.8 Paved primary roads (kilometers) 1,809 2,995 2,138 Access to electric power 3.7% 5% 3.9% Households with at least one telephone 31.6% 50% 36.39% Rate of access to mobile and landline telephones 35.67% 50% 35.73% Rate of Internet access 4.7% 20% 12.91% Sources: Ministry of Infrastructure, Ministry of New Technologies, and Ministry of Oil and Mines. Implementation constraints and challenges Constraints in the transport sector are primarily in regard to financing, combined with the lengthy distances that must be covered to bring in building materials. In view of the country’s immense size, the great challenge is to expand the transport system to provide multiple connections to neighboring countries and their seaports. The government is undertaking to pave the trans-Sahara highway, Kyabé-Singako, and complete other paving projects now under way. ICTs face two major constraints: (i) nonfulfillment of provisions contained in agreements with partners; and (ii) the lack of optical fiber infrastructure, and obsolescence of texts. The lack of a broadband network is also a major constraint impeding the country’s development. To address this challenge, the government has launched a project to construct broadband optical fiber infrastructure to cover both domestic and international needs. The air transport sector faces problems of geography, infrastructure, finance, and inadequate human capital. The main challenge is to bring airports up to ICAO security and safety standards. In the energy sector, the constraints are (i) the high cost of production, (ii) nonutilization of renewable energy, and (iii) the high cost of butane throughout the country. The main challenge is to ensure that Chad’s people have a continuous energy supply. 3.1.5 Research and development (a) The Chadian Institute for Agricultural Development Research (ITRAD) has developed several varieties of plants to be made available for use: (i) rice (Tox 728-1, 4 NERICA), (ii) millet (GB, CLIC); (ii) sorghum (K3R, S35); (iv) corn (CMS, TZEW, TZEEW, TZEY, TZEEY), (v) peanuts (Fleur 11, 55-437, JL24); (vi) sesame (S42); and (vii) cotton (STAMF; A51). All together, these varieties consist of 4.7 metric tons of improved seed and 525.8 metric tons of pre-basic seed, with pre-basic cotton seed totaling 29.9 metric tons. - 48 - The ITRAD has developed techniques to restore soil fertility by means of letting land lie fallow, improved mucuna cover-cropping techniques, intercropping, construction of filtering gullies to combat water erosion, making and applying compost, etc. Use of pesticides is recommended, especially for cotton-growing. This recommendation aims to reduce the cost of applying insecticide, for the benefit of the environment. Beyond its research activities, the ITRAD provides the CotonTchad company with expertise in adjusting machinery for picking cotton and analyzing cotton fiber. ITRAD articles are published in international science journals and in the Revue Scientifique du Tchad [Chad Science Journal]. Woodlots have been established in the Bébédjia and Gassi localities, as well as almost all farms in the Sudanese zone. Recent selection activities in accordance with the “participatory varietal selection” method have made it possible to identify some varieties suitable for distribution. The ITRAD carries on its work in close collaboration with regional and international institutions. It intends to continue to implement the second generation of the Medium-Term Agricultural Research Plan (PMTRA II). (b) The Livestock Development Research Institute (IRED) has accomplished the following in 2013: • In the bacteriology unit, three training programs at the Master 2 level on the topics (i) epidemiology of communicable diseases and management of health risks, (ii) quality assurance, and (iii) epidemiology relating to the “One Health” concept; • In the virology unit, two training programs at the Master 2 level on the topics (i) seroprevalence of Rift Valley fever and (ii) antirabies virus antibodies in dogs’ blood. It must be pointed out that the ITRAD and the IRED work in close cooperation with the PRASAC, which is a regional center for applied research for the development of agricultural systems in central Africa financed by the CAEMC and TFPs. 3.1.6 Regional integration (the CAEMC and the ECCAS) With regard to regional integration, the project to facilitate transport and transit within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) 10 forms part of the regional program designed to improve trade, and involve Cameroon, Chad, and the Central African Republic in local and international marketplaces by reducing bottlenecks along two major transport corridors: between Douala and N’Djamena, and between Douala and Bangui. Its objective is to promote regional trade among the member states of the CAEMC and improve access to world markets by Chad, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic. 10 World Bank report, June 2013. - 49 - The execution of this project as part of the infrastructure upgrading component has produced the following results: (i) rehabilitating 256 kilometers of roads in the two corridors (Douala- Bangui and Douala-N’Djamena), out of the target of 496 kilometers; (ii) raising the proportion of roads that are in good condition in the Douala-Bangui corridor from 53 percent in 2007 to 70 percent in 2013, and raising the proportion in the Douala-N’Djamena corridor from 40 percent in 2007 to 67 percent in 2013; (iii) reducing the transit time from the port of Douala to N’Djamena from 15 days to seven days, whereas the target had been to reduce it to 12 days by 2015; (iv) reducing the transit time from the port of Douala to Bangui from 10 days to five days, whereas the target had been to reduce it to eight days by 2015; (v) creating linkages between the customs information systems so that the main Cameroonian customs offices—particularly Garoua-Mboulaï and Kousseri—can connect to their headquarters; (vi) reducing the average length of time for surety bonds to be released from 63 days to 29 days, whereas the target had been to reduce it to 30 days by 2015; (vii) enabling transit documents collected by Cameroonian customs offices to be transmitted electronically to the customs services of the Central African Republic and Chad; (viii) implementing the electronic “single window” system and making the associated electronic procedures operational. In regard to taking maximum advantage of agriculture, the Economic Community of Central African States (CEEAC) supported the Chadian government in devising the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP). An important step came in December 2013 when the CAADP pact was signed by the government, the CEEAC, the NEPAD, producer organizations, the private sector, civil society organizations, and the representative of the African Development Bank (AfDB) on behalf of technical and financial partners. The pact represents a joint commitment by the signatories to work to strengthen the agricultural sector so that it will fulfill its potential and achieve at least 6 percent growth by 2020, to underpin dynamic economic growth for the country as a whole. Committed to a process aiming to establish a common market in central Africa and further within the African continent, Chad intends to promote integration at the regional and continental levels looking to 2025, in all economic sectors, and particularly in trade and commerce, agriculture, money and finance, transport and communications, industry, and energy, as the last step toward trade globalization. For Chad, the constraints and challenges associated with the implementation of integration projects stem from (i) its situation as a postconflict country and (ii) the fact that it has a Sahelian-Saharan climate and is landlocked. 3.1.7 Mobilizing the skills and abilities of Chadian expatriates In January 2013, the government and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), with the logistical and technical support of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the WHO, instituted a project to strengthen Public Administration staff in the areas of health and higher education by mobilizing the skills and abilities of Chadian - 50 - expatriates. The project was launched in February 2013. From then until November 2013, the project mobilized 15 Chadian professionals in France who came to support the National General Referral Hospital (8), the Mothers’ and Children’s Hospital (3), and the University of Chad (8), including the Faculty of Exact and Applied Sciences (7). Collaboration between those responsible for technical units and the Chadian expatriate professionals involved was beneficial and had a positive impact on improving the quality of services provided. The main results were as follows: (i) one professor in materials sciences who had carried out a mission for the benefit of the Faculty of Exact and Applied Sciences was recruited by a local business; (ii) one doctor who had carried out two missions under the project has just been recruited by the Hôpital Moderne and entered into service in March 2014; (iii) another doctor, a missionary, instituted a project to set up a medical analysis laboratory in Chad with the program’s support; (iv) at the request of students in the Faculty of Exact and Applied Sciences, a statistician had to make a second visit to teach mathematics courses, so that the students could complete additional training modules; (v) for the General Referral Hospital, books were provided for the library, and items of technical equipment were examined so that plans could be made to refurbish and update them. Training was also planned for potential users. In addition, the two instances of recruitment alluded to above meant that the project achieved one of its objectives, namely to encourage expatriate professionals to move back to the country. Instituting a three- or five-year program to mobilize the skills and abilities of Chadian expatriates is now being envisaged. In addition, with a view to drawing up a government policy on mobilizing expatriates, a series of activities is being organized, namely, starting work on a census of Chadian expatriates, to be conducted by embassies, and gathering information from ministries concerning their exact needs in areas where Chadian expatriates might be able to assist them. Among other things, that policy would include measures to encourage Chadian expatriates to move back home. 3.2 Mobilizing and developing human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion 3.2.1 Education sector During the period 2000 to 2010, the government gradually increased its expenditure on the education sector so that it accounted for 8.7 percent of the national budget and enabled the enrollment rate to rise fairly quickly at all levels of education. Although efforts have been made to improve the education system, sweeping actions are urgently needed. Thus, the government set itself the task in 2013, at the primary, secondary, technical, and vocational levels, of broadening access to basic education, improving the quality of education, and improving the management and governance of the education sector. With respect to postsecondary education and scientific research, the government has called for capacity- building for involving education institutions and improving the quality of training programs. - 51 - Analysis of the sector’s performance in 2013. In regard to primary-school education, further efforts are needed to improve the gross enrollment ratio (GER) and the repeater rate, which both worsened from 2012 to 2013. The GER declined from 98.2 percent in 2012 to 94.81 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 115 percent. From 2012 to 2013, the GER for boys declined from 111.6 percent to 107.5 percent and for girls from 84.5 percent to 82.09 percent. The same is true of the net enrollment ratio (NER), which stands at 65.6 percent, meaning that 34.4 percent of children aged 6 to 11 years are not in school. The primary-school completion rate is stagnant at around 37 percent (28 percent for girls). The evolution of these indicators is attributable to the large number of teachers who have not yet been trained and the very high number of students in each class. Nevertheless, some training programs have been carried out: 1,849 teachers have received training at the Normal School, 458 of them joining the system in 2013. Also, there are large disparities in enrollment rates between the south of the country, where the rate is 95 percent, and the north, where it is in the range of 20 percent to 40 percent. The ratio of girls to boys is in the range of 0.7 to 0.8 in the south, 0.4 in the north, and 0.6 in the east. Available data for 2012 and 2013 indicate that the retention rate for boys rose from 35.1 percent to 39.21 percent and for girls rose from 25.7 percent to 28.57 percent. These positive trends are due to awareness- raising campaigns in local communities and the involvement of all actors in the education sector. In 2013, 1,849 teachers received training and joined the system, all level 2 community teachers started receiving pay, and over 1,000 classrooms were built by the government and TFPs. The government and its development partners plan to build 4,500 classrooms each year for three years so that the education system can accommodate all the children not yet enrolled, given that the Normal Schools are training 3,000 teachers annually. Also, within the framework of the SIPEA, the government has plans to hire 14,000 community teachers over three years once they have been trained: 5,000 in 2013, 5,000 in 2014, and 4,000 in 2015. The hiring process is now under way for the first group. On the other hand, the GER at the secondary-school level (increasing from 28 percent in 2012 to 30 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 50 percent) and the repeater rate at the secondary-school level (declining from 46.7 percent in 2012 to 42.0 percent in 2013, with a target for 2015 of 20 percent) saw improvements in 2012 and 2013 for both boys and girls thanks to an expansion of education infrastructure at that level. As regards postsecondary education, in 2010-11 Chad had 47 institutions of higher learning, half of them in the private sector. All together, they had an enrollment of 20,349 students, 4,659 of them girls (23 percent). Of the total, public institutions of higher learning (universities and colleges) accounted for 72 percent of all postsecondary students (for girls, only 19 percent). In N’Djamena, the University currently has 7,031 students. Work on building a new campus at Toukra, about 20 kilometers away, will be finished in 2020. Because some buildings are already operational, a portion of that new campus opened in December 2012 and currently houses two faculties: (i) Humanities and Social Sciences, and - 52 - (ii) Literature, Art, and Communication. Although the public institutions offer a wide range of subjects, they do not go beyond the master’s level. Nevertheless, four new master’s programs were instituted in 2013 with assistance from France and in partnership with French and Swiss universities in the following subjects: electrical and mechanical engineering, anthropology, environment and development, hydrogeology and geographical information systems, land management, and local development. The illiteracy rate is very high (78 percent), with a large disparity between men (69 percent) and women (86 percent) as indicated in the table below. Table 13: Education sector indicators Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 Education’s share of the national budget (excluding debt) 8.7% 20% 8.67% Primary-school completion rate for girls 28.9% 35% 29.05% Primary-school retention rate for boys 35.1% 46% 39.21% Primary-school retention rate for girls 25.7% 35% 28.57% Student-teacher ratio 61 55 58 Primary education: gross enrollment ratio 111.6% 102% 107.5% to 84.5% to 90% to 82% Primary education: repeater rate 23% 17% 25% Secondary education: number of students per class 76 50 65 Source: Ministry of Education. Implementation constraints and challenges Although some progress has been made, it must be pointed out that the education sector strategy has faced some obstacles in implementation. There is a strong degree of budget centralization in the sector while the level of financing is limited. The operating budget for schools is part of the single line budget item for the Office of the Secretary General of the Ministry of Basic Education and Literacy (MEFA). That budget item is allocated using subappropriations which do not take into account the weight of each component. Within the MEFA, there is a shortage of qualified personnel in financial aspects and in monitoring and evaluating policy and reform measures forming part of the sector strategy. The disbursement of funds is a lengthy procedure and causes delays in getting projects completed. An evaluation report of the system for tracking expenditures up to their final utilization has been prepared and validated by the Ministry of Education. Its recommendations amplify and reaffirm those identified in the blueprint for giving primary-school education greater impetus, and it is hoped that many of them can be implemented quickly. - 53 - 3.2.2 Health sector The government’s objective in regard to health is to ensure that the entire population has access to services of good quality. The country’s epidemiological profile is characterized by the prevalence of endemic and epidemic illnesses such as malaria, tuberculosis, acute respiratory infections, HIV/AIDS, and diarrhea. Some noncommunicable diseases are also significant causes of morbidity and mortality. These illnesses particularly strike children and women, who are the most vulnerable groups in the population. The indicators (intermediate, strategic, and trigger indicators) for many of the high-priority programs of action instituted by the government and its technical and financial partners show a significant improvement in the health sector overall. However, further efforts are needed to improve some indicators, particularly the high rate of infant mortality in the past 10 years— 102 per 1,000 live births (EDST 1, conducted by the Chadian Demographic and Health Survey (EDST) in 1997), compared with 103 per 1,000 live births (EDST 2, 2004)—and the maternal mortality indicators, which have worsened—827 per 100,000 live births (EDST 1, 1997), compared with 1,099 per 100,000 live births (EDST 2, 2004). 11 To address the problems identified and strengthen its efforts in this area, the government intends to rebuild the country’s health infrastructure and ensure that services provided to the population are of good quality. The following actions have also been undertaken in 2013: (i) providing care free of charge (350,000 individuals received free care in 2013, compared with 240,000 in 2012, an increase of 46 percent); (ii) participating in the Campaign for Accelerated Reduction of Maternal, Newborn, and Child Mortality in Africa (CARMMA); (iii) revitalizing health centers and district hospitals; (iv) holding monthly monitoring and 11 Figures from the EDST 3 survey are currently being tabulated and will provide more up- to-date information. - 54 - follow-up meetings concerning the development of the country’s health sector; (v) stepping up epidemiological surveillance; and (vi) results-based contracting and funding. Analysis of the health sector’s performance in 2013 As a whole, health indicators show positive results. Some indicators have reached their target for 2015, while others are moving in that direction. However, some indicators are showing poor performance and need special attention. The portion of the government’s budget devoted to health has remained essentially stable at 10 percent from 2012 to 2013, and is falling significantly short of its 2015 target of 20 percent. Available data indicate that from 2012 to 2013 the health coverage ratio strengthened from 68 percent to 72.4 percent thanks to the rehabilitation of 24 regional hospitals and 450 clinics (health centers). The rate of infant mortality declined to 39 per 1,000 births largely because of rural vaccination campaigns and greater availability of clean drinking water (50 percent in 2013 compared with 48 percent in 2011). Because of malaria and malnutrition, the mortality rate for infants and children was 161 per 1,000 births in 2013 compared with 102 per 1,000 births in 2012. The proportion of births attended by qualified health personnel is clearly improving, from 22 percent in 2010 to 28 percent in 2013 thanks to the recruitment and redeployment of qualified personnel. However, the rate of postnatal care remains stagnant at 4 percent. Efforts have been made in the provision of health services through the building of infrastructure and capacity-building for human resources working in the health sector. Thus, the proportion of operational health districts improved from 66.0 percent in 2012 to 70.6 percent in 2013, while the proportion of operational health centers improved from 74.0 percent in 2012 to 81.3 percent in 2013. Civil service recruitment of health personnel has made progress, but account has not been taken of paramedical personnel. Table 8: Performance indicators in the area of public health Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 Share of health in the budget (Initial Budget Law, 10% 20% 9.8% excluding debt) Infant mortality (per 1,000 live births) 106 64 98 Neonatal mortality (per 1,000 live births) 48 12 39 Infant and child mortality (per 1,000 live births) 102 64 161 Proportion of births attended by qualified personnel 22% 70% 28% in 2010 Rate of postnatal care 4% 50% 4% Proportion of operational health districts and health 66%/74% 90%/90% 70.6%/81.3% centers Number of inhabitants per doctor (M) 1 M/23,182- 1 M/39,762- 1 M/1,185- 1 IDE/3,625 – 1 IDE/2,429 1 IDE/1,000 Number of inhabitants per accredited nurse (IDE) 1 midwife/6,403 - 55 - Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2012 2013 Rate of respiratory infections 12.35% NA 10.11% Incidence of malaria 28% 20% 28.21% DTP3 vaccination rate 63% 80% 82% Incidence of syphilis among pregnant women 6% 4% 4.47% Number of cases of genital ulcers treated 7,373 3,500 7,019 Number of cases of purulent urethritis treated 8,131 4,000 7,074 Incidence of HIV/AIDS (15 to 24 years) 3.4% 3% 3.3% Number of condoms sold each year 4,612,468 2,239,000 (en 5,908,625 2000) Source: Ministry of Public Health and Social Affairs. The acute respiratory infection rate is declining steadily, from 12.35 percent to 10.11 percent in 2013. The many strategies implemented by the government with the assistance of TFPs aimed at preventing malaria are starting to bear fruit. Likewise, the many vaccination campaigns have produced remarkable progress in raising the DTP3 vaccination rate from 16 percent in 2010 to 82 percent in 2013, exceeding the target. As regards the incidence of syphilis among pregnant women, the target has been broadly met. STD prevention campaigns have made it possible to improve indicators relating to genital ulcers and purulent urethritis. The incidence of HIV/AIDS among people aged 15 to 24 years and the increase in the number of condoms sold each year (AMASOT) indicate that the population is taking measures to prevent HIV/AIDS infection. Overall, the food situation is improving in the Sahelian zone (SMART survey, January to March, 2014): there, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) fell from 21.3 percent in August 2010 to 10.6 percent in March 2014. In Chad, malnutrition continues to be a serious concern associated primarily with problems of food patterns or habits. Implementation constraints and challenges Despite the indicators that show relatively good performance in the sector, the implementation of the sector strategy has met some obstacles in the operational phase. Some hospital rehabilitation works have been interrupted because funding has been slow to be made available. In addition, poor management of human and financial resources and the shortage of qualified personnel are putting a brake on activities to address the main challenges, namely to reduce the maternal mortality rate and to assure good governance. 3.2.3 Nutrition sector Malnutrition continues to be a major concern in Chad, particularly in the Sahelian zone, in spite of efforts by the government and its partners. The government, through the National Nutrition and Health Technology Center (CNNTA) and its partners (UNICEF, ECHO, the WFP, etc.) conducted a SMART survey in the Sahelian zone during the gap period (July and - 56 - August 2013) to monitor the situation. Its findings showed a rate of global acute malnutrition (GAM) of 13.6 percent for children aged 6 to 59 months. Overall, the food situation is improving in the Sahelian zone (SMART survey, January to March, 2014): there, the prevalence of global acute malnutrition (GAM) fell from 21.3 percent in August 2010 to 10.6 percent in March 2014. In Chad, malnutrition continues to be a serious concern associated primarily with problems of food patterns or habits. In specific terms, the highest rates of GAM, exceeding the WHO’s 15 percent threshold, were found in the regions of Ouaddaï (18.3 percent), Wadi Fira (18.2 percent), Batha (16.8 percent), Kanem (15.2 percent), Barh El Gazel (16.2 percent), and Lac (16.3 percent). The lowest rates were found in Hadjer Lamis (8.1 percent) and N’Djamena (9.3 percent). Compared with the results of the survey conducted from May to July, 2012, an overall decline in the GAM is evident. However, an increase is seen in the regions of Ouaddaï and Lac (see chart below). Children in the Sahel suffering acute malnutrition with complications are referred to mobile feeding centers (CNAs) and supplementary feeding centers (CNSs), and undernourished women who are pregnant or nursing are looked after by UNICEF (plumpynut) and the WFP (cornmeal, oil, and sugar). Among the causes of malnutrition are poor hygiene and sanitation, the work performed in rural areas, undernourishment of women, and measles. In the Sudanese zone, malnutrition screening is done at health centers, and cases where there are complications are referred to district hospitals for medical care. Chart 5: Prevalence of GAM among children aged 6 to 59 months: May to July, 2012, and July and August, 2013, in the Sahelian zone Source: Ministry of Public Health and Social Affairs. - 57 - Legend for Chart 5, where applicable French English Juillet-août 2013 July and August, 2013 Mai-juin 2012 May and June, 2012 Ensemble Total The situation of ruthless endemic malnutrition has led the government to take steps to ensure that the entire population has access to food of good quality. Several actions, projects, and programs have been instituted in connection with the following strategies: (i) support for nutrition education; (ii) support for developing kindergartens, for which two new projects have been included in the PND; and (iii) the elaboration of a national nutrition and food policy. Analysis of sector performance in 2013 Available data show that the acute malnutrition rate for children aged less than five years has fallen from 16 percent in 2007 to 5 percent in 2013, representing a greater decline than the rate of 10.0 percent targeted for 2015. The main actions carried out in 2013 in regard to food and nutrition were as follows: (i) a nutrition survey in the 11 Sahelian regions; and (ii) a campaign to provide vitamin A supplements for children aged 6 to 59 months, which attained a coverage rate of 74.0 percent, and a program for deworming children aged 12 to 59 months, which attained a coverage rate of 65.0 percent. However, four planned actions relating to three key indicators were not carried out: (i) the elaboration of a comprehensive communication plan (PIC); (ii) a mission to identify women’s groups and associations; (iii) the development of 71 RCSs in three districts for the prevention of malnutrition; and (iv) the assessment of sentinel sites for the household consumption of iodized salt, launched in some departments. Implementation constraints and challenges Despite the weak performance in this sector, some challenges are still to be addressed, in particular the following: (i) implementing the REACH initiative, the AGIR, and the SUN movement; (ii) implementing the multisector platform for strategic development directions in regard to nutrition and food; (iii) preparation of the National Nutrition and Food Policy Paper; (iv) revision of the national protocol for comprehensively dealing with acute malnutrition (PCIMA), and harmonizing PCIMA training modules; (v) the creation of a PIC for the AME; and (vi) strengthening the impetus and mobilization of women’s groups and associations for the ANJE. - 58 - 3.2.3 Clean drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation The government is aiming to increase the supply of clean drinking water, and strengthen hygiene and sanitation conditions to improve people’s standard of living in both urban and rural areas. Strategies developed for the water sector consist of intensifying village programs by stepping up the pace of execution of waterworks, strengthening capacities in managing studies and projects, and monitoring and promoting appropriate technologies for systems that are easy to maintain and low in cost. In regard to sanitation, the following were envisaged: (i) gradual implementation of independent sanitation in urban and semiurban areas; (ii) gradual implementation of urban and semiurban sanitation equipment in Chad’s main cities and towns; and (iii) capacity- building nationwide for actors in the health and sanitation sector. To that end, 26 projects were identified for implementation in 2013. Overall, as indicated in the table below, the execution rate of these projects was 46.15 percent. The sector given the greatest attention was health and sanitation, followed by village water systems. Analysis of sector performance in 2013. Significant progress has been made in the supply of clean drinking water, hygiene, and sanitation. For the supply of clean drinking water, the rate of coverage rose from 48.0 percent in 2011 to 50.0 percent in 2013 in rural areas, and from 37.0 percent in 2011 to 38.0 percent in 2013 in urban areas. This improvement is primarily due to the many wells drilled by the government under the President’s Program of Major Projects, as well as the involvement of TFPs and, in part, the privatization of the Chadian Water Company [Société Tchadienne d’Eau]. In the sanitation sector, the proportion of households with access to working latrines increased 4 percent, from 12 percent in 2011 to 16 percent in 2013. - 59 - Table 14: Performance indicators: Clean drinking water, health, and sanitation Situation in Situation in Indicator 2015 target 2011 2013 Number of water points for livestock farmers 1,296 2,386 1,868 Clean drinking water: rate of coverage in rural areas 48% 61% 50% Clean drinking water: rate of coverage in urban 37% 70% 38% areas Proportion of households with access to working 12% 35% 16% latrines Source: Ministry of Livestock Raising and Water Systems. Implementation Constraints and Challenges Despite the performance posted in 2013, the low level of financial resources (less than 1 percent of disbursements in 2013) impairs the ability of the sector’s objectives to be achieved. The authorities started to become aware of the demographic aspect of development when a population policy was adopted in 1994. In 2007, it was revised. But the demographic objectives—reducing morbidity and mortality, particularly maternal, infant, and child mortality; keeping the birth rate and population growth under control; and increasing the use of contraception—have not been achieved. In addition, the large numbers of children, adolescents, and youth (people under the age of 30 years) and high-priority vulnerable groups not only impose a heavy burden on all social services but also make it impossible to create enough additional jobs to absorb the growing numbers of unemployed. The overall objective is to maintain control of demographic variables in order to improve development planning. In specific terms, there is a need to pursue implementation of the population policy in association with the National Health Development Plan (PNDS). 3.2.4 Habitat People’s habitat is defined as the place where they live. It encompasses household dwellings and living spaces. The housing sector therefore aims to optimize the use of space in pursuit of balanced economic and social development. Policy directions in this area may be summed up as follows: elaborating a code governing property and land ownership; modernizing land- registry services by means of a “single window” system; holding regular meetings with the principal actors; relaunching the property survey now under way in Mardjadaffak and extending it to other districts in N’Djamena. In N’Djamena and a few other cities and towns, 4,082 lots have been established by subdividing land. In the absence of institutions to provide financing for housing, people resort to self-financing. - 60 - In rental housing, the informal sector predominates. The exorbitant cost of building materials explains why housing is in very poor condition, with 90 percent of it being traditional dwellings. There is a National Housing Strategy (SNL) which is being implemented by means of the Urban Development and Housing Improvement Project (DURAH). To improve the quality of housing and dwellings, social housing is being built for the benefit of those with little means, the living environment is being upgraded, and access to financing for decent housing is being made easier, adapted to local conditions. In this connection, the government has decided to reduce the costs of building materials and to provide for the construction of rental housing. The government has set up the Land and Real Estate Promotion Corporation (SOPROFIM), which intends to establish a Housing Mortgage Bank to promote the housing sector by offering loans. In the lead-up to the African Union summit in 2015, five-star hotels and 60 deluxe houses are being built. In regard to urban development, several actions have been planned for the period 2011 to 2013 and are now under way, among them the following: (i) setting out the general policy for land management and urban development; (ii) conducting two studies, one on urban development and the other on construction materials; (iii) updating the Urban Master Plans (PURs) for four cities and towns 12 and drafting PURs for 12 others; 13 (iv) preparing a planning framework document for the city of N’Djamena; (v) establishing pretreatment sites for controlled discharge at N’Djamena; (vi) developing a strategy to manage solid waste in N’Djamena; (vii) establishing a “single window” system to make it easier to obtain land survey and title documents; (viii) computerizing land survey and title records; (ix) adopting subdivision plans for Toukra, Ngueli-Walia, and Djermaya; (x) redeveloping the Farcha- Madjorio district; and (xi) conducting a study for subdividing a site in Doba, including feasibility and VRDs. 14 Constraints and challenges in implementing the sector strategy The housing sector is subject to constraints associated with the lack of a policy to promote and finance social housing, and the fact that legal texts governing property and land ownership (dating from 1967) and building regulations (dating from 1970) are out of date, resulting in administrative procedures that are very lengthy and unsuited to the population. This situation is aggravated by a shortage of architects, surveyors, and qualified building contractors, and especially a shortage of real estate developers. In addition, statistical data are needed to provide a sound basis for planning. 12 Abéché, Moundou, Sarh, and Doba. 13 Mao, Mongo, Biltine, Bol, Ati, Faya-Largeau, Fada, Am-Timan, Pala, Bongor, Lai, and Léré. 14 VRDs: Roads and other municipal systems and networks. - 61 - Among the actions to be undertaken in the housing sector by 2015 are the following: (i) restart work on preparing the N’Djamena and Djarmaya master plans, suspended several months ago; (ii) carry through on the draft legislation to establish a code governing property and land ownership, and prepare the corresponding implementation texts; (iii) identify and prepare land to be subdivided and allocated to applicants; (iv) establish systems for providing land-registry documents such as land survey and title records; (v) conduct an inventory of all publicly-owned property so that it can be managed rationally and sustainably; (vi) increase revenues from property transactions, land-registry services, and stamp taxes; (vii) build 125,000 housing units by 2025; and (viii) set up a land-registry and property squad and make it operational. 3.2.5 Sports, culture, and recreation In regard to sports, youth, and recreation, the Chadian people as a whole—and especially youth—are very keen to take part in a wide range of sports activities. Soccer, for instance, is extremely popular in Chad, although the national soccer team and the local teams playing in regional and international matches have not won many victories. In other sports, however, such as handball, basketball, martial arts, and track-and-field, Chadians have won major victories at the regional and international levels. One of the principal handicaps to developing sports, though, is a lack of enough modern facilities nationwide so that competitions can be held. The availability of local services in this connection is not sufficient to enable young people to flourish. The main problems facing the sector are a shortage of qualified human resources, lack of modern infrastructure to accommodate sports competitions, and the absence of arts and training organizations. Taking greater advantage of the potential of sports and recreation can improve the people’s living environment and help generate revenues that can be used to combat poverty. To meet these challenges, the government has carried out the following projects: (i) setting up a National Fund to Support Youth (FONAJ); (ii) setting up a National Fund to Develop Sports (FNDS); (iii) setting up a National Fund to Support Artists (FONAT); (iv) building stadiums in N’Djamena and other major cities and towns; (v) building housing units for youth; and (vi) establishing centers for talks and discussions. Analysis of performance In performance terms, compared with 2012, major efforts have been made in 2013 to bring young people and their training into the economic mainstream. The ministry’s budget in the PAP has made it possible to carry out important activities in the areas of sports, culture, and recreation: - 62 - • Making the FNDS operational has enabled Chad to participate in various international competitions (soccer, handball, judo, track-and-field, volleyball, tae kwon do, pétanque, archery, and wrestling), although the results fell short of expectations. • There has been national heritage protection, and artists and associations have been able to participate in a variety of competitions. Chad possesses sites of enormous cultural potential, among them the following: (i) the Ennedi and Tibesti rock paintings and etchings; (ii) the Begon II foundry and metal-working site in Logone Oriental; (iii) the unusual Télé-Nugar iron-ore mines in Guéra; (iv) the Ouara ruins in Ouaddaï; (v) the Lakes of Ounianga in the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti area; (vi) the Toumaï and Abel prehistoric hominid sites in Djourab in the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti area; (vii) the village of Gaoui; (viii) the Archeï region in the Borkou-Ennedi-Tibesti area; (ix) Lake Léré and the Gauthio falls; (x) the Gong de Léré palace; and (xi) Manda park. In the arts—such as film, painting and sculpture, music, theatre, and literature—Chad is starting to gain recognition as it garners awards in Africa and around the world. To keep making progress in this area, it will be necessary to look into integrating arts training within the country’s education curricula. With regard to recreation, sports and cultural activities have made it possible to provide young people with recreation opportunities by building sports and cultural infrastructure: a youth and cultural center, centers for talks and discussions, museums, and cultural tourism. Implementation constraints and challenges In spite of the performance achieved, difficulties remain in executing the budget. The financial tracking and reporting system significantly hampers the process of making disbursements in timely fashion. Adopting a policy on culture, youth, and sports marks the beginning of an awareness of the importance of this sector and the need to take full advantage of it. Using the full potential of sports, culture, and recreation could over the long term improve people’s living environment and help generate revenues that can be used to combat poverty. 3.3 Environmental protection and combating climate change For Chad, managing the environment is critically important. This raises three major questions: first, maintaining full control of natural resources, i.e., the ownership of those resources and community assets; second, access by the population to those natural resources; and third, environmental degradation and regeneration. The overall objective is to protect the environment, safeguard it, and manage natural resources to help improve the population’s living environment. In 2013, the programs included in this pillar saw relatively good performance, with a rate of financial execution of 80 percent thanks, in the main, to prevention efforts and the - 63 - management of emergencies and catastrophes (114 percent), although these were offset by efforts to preserve Lake Chad (54 percent), to carry out land management (47 percent), and to combat desertification (75 percent). 3.3.1 Adaptation to climate change According to a study carried out Africa-wide (United Nations Statistics Division, 2012), Africa’s carbon-dioxide emissions have traditionally relatively small, representing less than 4 percent of the world total. So far as carbon-dioxide emissions per capita between 1990 and 2009 are concerned, Chad ranks next-to-last out of 53 African countries (only Burundi ranks lower), producing a quantity of less than one metric ton (0.01 metric tons). Nevertheless, Chad is exposed to the effects of climate change as demonstrated by the severe droughts of the 1970s and 1980s and flooding. According to FAO studies, the rate of environmental degradation is 0.6 percent a year, or a loss of about 200,000 hectares of forest. This translates into a gradual decline of forest resources from 31 million hectares to 23,250,000 hectares. Moreover, there are the pressures of human activity and harmful cultural practices. Until recent decades, the national forestry policy has centered on preventive actions aimed at maintaining the overall ecological balance. This policy has led to the following actions: forest management, promoting alternative and renewable energy, expanding the use of improved wood stoves, forest plantations, and activities to protect and distribute seed. To address the challenges the country is facing, the following strategies have been identified: (i) safeguarding the environment and combating desertification; (ii) rebuilding, classifying, and conserving forests and wildlife plant and animal reserves; (iii) taking full advantage of the potential for hunting and fishing, and strengthening the regulatory framework in the area of natural resource management; (iv) improving domestic energy management; (v) combating pollution and adverse materials, and mitigating climate change and adapting to it. Analysis of performance in environmental protection and impact mitigation associated with climate change shows that in 2013 significant progress was made in natural regeneration and a slowing of the rate of deforestation on the order of 0.6 percent (compared with 2.5 percent in 2012). Under the National Greenbelt Development Program, 80 hectares were reforested in 2013 out of the 143 hectares initially planned, the shortfall being attributable to disruptions during the rainy season. In 2013, a study was carried out to analyze linkages between climate change, protected areas, and communities. A Chadian delegation also took part in regional workshops to assess the vulnerability of biodiversity and protected areas to climate change. Aware of the country’s environmental challenges, the government has equipped and made operational the Mobile Antipoaching and Environmental Protection Squad throughout - 64 - Chadian territory. As a result, the land area that can be used in growing crops and raising livestock has been increased. In the area of protecting biodiversity, the recruitment of forest officers has helped reduce the rate of poaching. Finally, it must be noted that the population has been made more aware of the need to protect the environment. However, as to the conservation of biodiversity, even though institutional measures started to be implemented, the 2013 baseline has remained unchanged (three parks and seven reserves) because the legal texts required have not all been finalized yet. Two regional action programs and six local action programs have been developed for combating desertification in the Kanem and Logone Occidental regions in 2013. 3.3.2 Land management sector The aim of this sector is to optimize the use of land to develop an economic and social balance and provide populations with a decent living environment. With this in mind, the government has put in place a variety of land planning tools and carried out several actions in 2013: constructing classrooms, health centers, community supply centers, training centers, wells to provide water for livestock and villages, and providing manually operated pumps and water towers, managing irrigation ditches, holding vaccination sessions, and so forth. Analysis of performance through 2013 Analysis of the year’s performance shows positive efforts in regard to the utilization of land and an improvement in the target populations’ standard of living in the following areas: (i) the National Land Management System was elaborated, together with four regional management systems for Batha, Lac, Mayo Kebi Ouest, and Salamat; (ii) a geographical atlas of Chad and various aspects of its infrastructure was prepared; and (iii) professional and supervisory staff receive training in various topics relating to land management. Constraints and challenges in implementing the sector strategy In spite of the efforts seen in 2013 in this subsector, it must be noted that budget resources allocated by the government and the TFPs have been inadequate. Looking ahead, the sector intends to make efforts to mobilize financial resources, consolidate institutions, move ahead in capacity-building, make sector policies and strategies widely known, do monitoring and follow-up, and implement the laws and other regulatory texts concerned with the sector. 3.4 Strengthening governance By joining the APRM, Chad has demonstrated its good intentions and recognizes that working to improve its institutions, democratic processes, and management of the evolving role of the State and civil society in this era of globalization lies at the heart of the country’s - 65 - efforts to reduce poverty, preserve the environment, and promote human development. Pending the adoption of a second national strategy on good governance, the 2013-2015 PND serves as an ideal framework to pursue reforms to strengthen good governance in Chad. Under Pillar 4, the government has identified four high-priority areas for action: (i) modernizing the State and reforming the civil service; (ii) strengthening decentralization; (iii) promoting human rights, peace, and social cohesion; and (iv) pursuing justice reform, affirmative consolidation of the public sector, and good governance. In 2013, the programs and projects making up this pillar were implemented very satisfactorily. The average financial execution rate was 104 percent: 94 percent for modernization of the State and civil service reform; 149 percent for decentralization; 100 percent for promoting human rights; and 121 percent for justice reform and affirmative consolidation of the public sector. 3.4.1 Modernizing the State and reforming the civil service With respect to government finance, Chad is implementing major reforms under its Action Plan for the Modernization of Public Finances (PAMFIP) to restore budget discipline and especially to modernize the government’s financial management so as to remedy shortcomings and thereby ensure that expenditures are effective and that government revenues increase. The government has carried out the following activities in 2013: (i) an organic law respecting budget legislation has been adopted by the National Assembly and promulgated by the President; (ii) units of the Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB) have been put online (MFB headquarters, the Directorate General of the Treasury and Public Accounts, the Debt Directorate, the Directorate General of Taxation, the Office of the Inspector General of Finance, the Budget Balance Directorate, and the Directorate General of Payment Processing), as well as the Office of the President, the Ministry of the Civil Service, Labor, and Employment, the Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport, the Ministry of Mines and Geology, the Ministry of Energy and Oil, and the Ministry of Public Health; (iii) the expenditure chain has been computerized by implementing the Integrated System for Tracking and Reporting Expenditure (CID), which is now being made operational; (iv) systems to manage means of payment (SYSTAC and SYGMA) have been implemented in the Treasury to improve payment tracking and accelerate the process; (v) the Integrated Government Employee Administration and Payroll System (SIGASPE) has been implemented, and work is now under way to link it to the CID; (vi) 400 copies of documents relating to the government’s new chart of accounts have been printed (the chart of accounts; accounting instructions for noncentralized account entries; accounting instructions for Treasury payment offices; the Statute on Public Accountants); (vii) the laws on settlements for the period 2007 to 2013 have been regularized; (viii) the Government Procurement Code has been revised; and (ix) information bulletins have been issued on government procurement, and government budget execution reports and EITI reports have been produced. It will be recalled that Chad has signed on to the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and has attained the status of “Candidate Country.” Chad is - 66 - now working to meet the EITI eligibility criteria, and in agreement with the EITI an action plan has been drawn up so that that objective will be fulfilled by the end of August 2014. For the year 2013, an information bulletin has been published on all government procurement activities taking place that year. Starting in 2014, these bulletins are being published quarterly, and the first of them is already available. In addition, as a result of a directive issued in 2013 by the Minister of Finance and Budget which strengthened restrictions on expenditures made before a payment order has been issued (DAOs), the proportion of DAOs has fallen to below 20 percent. In order to increase the mobilization of domestic resources, the project to support good governance organized a series of training sessions on the auditing of companies in developing sectors through the second half of 2013. Likewise, a study on the diversification of tax revenues has been carried out thanks to support from the AfDB. The recommendations of that study should make it possible to increase the tax ratio. As shown in the table below, the tax ratio improved slightly in 2013. In regard to oil revenues, members of the oil revenue monitoring unit in the Directorate General of the Treasury and Public Accounts were given training in the payment monitoring system; and members of the payment monitoring unit set up within the Directorate General of the Treasury and Public Accounts were also given training. Also, the EITI harmonization report was validated in May 2013 by the National EITI Commission. Table 15: Results indicators Baseline Situation in Indicator situation in 2015 target 2013 2012 Score for the perception of corruption in the public sector 19* N/A 19 Number of quarterly information bulletins on government 0 4 1 procurement published each year Proportion of expenditures made before a payment order N/A <20% 18% has been issued Number of budget execution reports published in timely 0 1 1 fashion each year Annual EITI reports published in timely fashion 1 1 1 Tax ratio 9% 12.7% 9.5% *2011 Sources: Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB), Ministry for Affirmative Consolidation of the Public Sector and Good Governance. - 67 - 3.4.2 Strengthening decentralization The January 2012 local elections marked the effective launch of decentralization in Chad, as 947 municipal councilors were chosen in 42 communes thanks to the joint efforts of the government and its technical and financial partners (the UNDP, the European Union, and cooperation agencies from France and the United States). All the elected local officials have received training in the basics of decentralization. Thirty training workshops were held in N’Djamena and elsewhere in 2012 and 2013. A compendium of Chad’s laws and regulations on decentralization was produced by the Development Research and Training Center (CEFOD) and distributed to elected local officials, in the territorial and communal governments. Two general meetings of mayors were held in 2012 and 2013. Thanks to these meetings, an association of elected local officials was created called the Chadian National Association of Communes (ANCT). Its role is to provide a forum through which mayors can be heard and to strengthen capacity-building in the communes. Reform efforts were launched in 2013 on many fronts, including the following: (i) government allocations to territorial communities, with assistance from the Government Support Program (PAG); (ii) assistance for the territorial civil service, with a delegation to Paris and Angers to visit the National Center for Territorial Civil Services [Centre National de la Fonction Publique Territoriale] (CNFPT); (iii) support for local planning by holding a workshop to validate the Guide for preparing a Communal Development Plan (PDC), which enabled the communes of Bébédja and Moundou to prepare their own PDCs (for which validation is now under way); (iv) decentralized cooperation through a dialogue and consensus-building workshop organized by the ACNT. Direct support for communes has been provided by the European Union, the UNDP, the Project to Support Local Development (PROADEL), the Project to Support Urban Development (PADUR), and French cooperation by means of, among other things, calls for proposals in which the communes have participated. The European Union’s call for proposals “Local Authorities-Nongovernmental Actors” led to an agreement between the city of N’Djamena and the AIMF concerning a project to target and mobilize tax receipts. The UNDP granted financial aid to 15 communes totaling CFAF 120 million, mainly for water and sanitation projects. In November 2013, the ANCT signed an agreement with the French Embassy to set up a communal development fund of 200,000 euros. In 2013, points of disagreement arose between N’Djamena City Hall and the town halls of the boroughs making up the city, as well as disagreements concerning the appointment of government delegates. However, thanks to a meeting organized in February 2013 by the City of N’Djamena, the French Agency for Development (AFD), and the European Union, it became possible to share a joint, consensus-based vision in the city. Awareness-raising activities were organized (radio programs, concerts in the various boroughs, distribution of brochures, information campaigns in the communes, etc.). In 2013, training workshops on decentralization were broadened to include prefects and journalists. - 68 - Despite these significant advances, the communes still face a number of challenges. The weak capacity in terms of human and financial resources and in the communes keeps them from carrying out their responsibilities effectively. The government intends to extend local elections to the other communes, departments, and regions in 2014. 3.4.3 Promoting human rights, peace, and social cohesion In this area, the government intends to move forward with the following: (i) to strengthen the legal and institutional framework; (ii) to promote the defense of human rights; and (iii) to implement conflict resolution mechanisms. Accordingly, a number of protocols and conventions have been ratified, among them the following: (i) the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Involvement of Children in Armed Conflict; (ii) the Optional Protocol to the Convention on the Rights of the Child on the Sale of Children, Child Prostitution and Child Pornography; (iii) the African Union Convention on Preventing and Combating Corruption; (iv) the Law on Civil Status and the Code of Civil Procedure, of June 2013; (v) the action plan established between Chad and UNICEF with respect to children associated with armed groups and armed forces; (vi) the national gender policy, taking into account women’s concerns and issues of violence based on gender and discrimination. Similarly, with a view to meeting international standards, Chad has undertaken efforts to harmonize existing legal texts by revising them to conform with the international instruments it has signed (the Penal Code, the Code of Penal Procedure, and the Code of Child Protection). Activities to promote human rights were stepped up in 2012 and 2013 through the active participation of Chadian human rights bodies in holding workshops and organizing conferences to advocate for, restore, and draw up strategies for action plans relating to human rights in Chad. Five reports were prepared by the Ministry for Human Rights and the Promotion of Basic Freedoms on the subjects of civil and political rights, racial discrimination, economic, social, and cultural rights, the convention on children’s rights, and the second cycle of the Universal Periodic Review. The ministry has also worked with other ministries in defending and protecting human rights and setting up an interministerial technical committee (established under Directive 3756/PR/PM/MDHLF/2013) to combat the use of child herders [enfants bouviers]. Regional human rights delegations have produced 18 activity reports on such subjects as lack of security, intercommunity conflict, arbitrary, prolonged detention, inhuman and degrading torture and treatment, parallel justice, and poor conditions for those detained. A further positive measure on the part of the Ministry for Human Rights has been to organize five missions to raise awareness and distribute information widely with respect to human rights, in collaboration with the UNDP and civil society, on subjects relating to the treatment and protection of children, genital mutilation, the United Nations Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women, and the country’s basic law (Constitution). - 69 - In regard to consolidating peace, significant efforts have been made by the Chadian government. At the national level, the capacities of the internal security forces have been strengthened with support, in particular, from the European Union and French cooperation. With time, this should result in a significant reduction in criminality and delinquency, and assuage citizens’ sense of insecurity. As to civil status, areas of progress should be noted. Law 08/PR/2013 with respect to the civil status procedures was adopted on May 10, 2013, and adoption of the decree setting out its implementing regulations is now under way. A manual for civil status officials has been prepared. In addition, as part of the work of setting up a National Civil Status Center (CNEC), missions to Cameroon and Senegal have been held to exchange information and experiences and develop concrete proposals concerning the CNEC’s institutional foundation. A draft decree to set up the CNEC has been prepared. As regards the Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction, to which Chad became a signatory in 1999, the government has submitted to the States Parties a request to extend the time limit for compliance with Article 5. In December 2013, the request was accepted and the time limit was pushed back to January 1, 2020. In March 2013, Chad also ratified the Convention on Cluster Bombs. In 2013, the government adopted a de-mining action strategy for the period 2013 to 2017, to make Chad free of mines and explosive remnants of war and provide communities in the areas affected safe access to resources and services, and the same development opportunities as in other regions of the country. By the end of 2013, of the 787 dangerous areas identified in the inventories (123 of them contaminated by mines and 664 by other explosive remnants of war), 334 remained to be cleared, representing a land area of 106,088,458 square meters. In 2013, 109 dangerous areas were cleared. At the same time, Chad needs to obtain the corresponding data for four additional regions—Borkou, Ennedi, Moyen Chari, and Tibesti—which were only partially covered by the technical survey conducted from 2010 to 2012. At the international level, Chad has spared no effort and has played a key role in 2013 in the crises arising in the subregion. The interventions in Mali and the Central African Republic demonstrate the government’s firm will to become involved humanely and financially in resolving conflicts so as to maintain peace, security, and regional stabilization. Chad has taken in nearly 350,000 refugees from Sudan and the Central African Republic, plus a further 93,639 from the Central African Republic who have been repatriated; and it has drafted a global response plan (adopted April 1, 2014) to coordinate efforts with humanitarian actors with a view to addressing the short-, medium-, and long-term needs of these populations. - 70 - 3.4.4 Justice reform, affirmative consolidation of the public sector, and promotion of good governance Among the achievements of 2013, Law 6 with respect to the organization of the Supreme Court was adopted, 58 judges were trained in 2012 and 2013, and three traveling court sessions were held in Moundou. In the area of child protection, a criminal chamber for child cases was set up in N’Djamena. Also, a workshop in the N’Djamena remand center was conducted to provide training for children and adolescents in conflict with the law. To address the problem of the overpopulation of prisons with the attendant health and safety problems, six remand centers were built in Kelo, Korotoro, Am-Timan, Abeche, and Koumra, while renovation work was done in five penitentiaries (Moissala, Fianga, Lai, Gounou-gaya, Sarh) and in the regional courts in Ati and Moundou. Efforts are under way to train judges and, if expectations are fulfilled, it will be possible to have a total of 359 judges as planned for 2015. Preventing and combating corruption continues to be a major challenge. The government’s efforts must be combined with an individual and collective commitment to renounce corruption and act through a strong, sustained alliance. Chad has strengthened its political and institutional capacities to combat corruption effectively by establishing a Ministry for Affirmative Consolidation of the Public Sector and Promotion of Good Governance and a Bureau of Auditors. It has also initiated several reforms. With respect to the affirmative consolidation of the public sector, a 2012 exercise to audit financial management in the public administration, known as the COBRA (45 missions in all), recovered CFAF 26 billion for the Public Treasury which had been diverted by government employees, and led to 55 people being charged. In 2013, audits of public institutions and bodies (22 missions) led to 36 people being charged for diverging public funds. These audits of financial management, materiel, and human resources will continue in 2014. A 2013 audit conducted across 31 ministries recovered over CFAF 6 billion in five departments. The results of the other departments audited will be made public in 2014. Activities aimed at raising ethical standards in public life have also been carried out (posters, signs, and an awareness-raising campaign) in public institutions and bodies, in cooperation with civil society. These audits of financial management, materiel, and human resources will continue in 2014. - 71 - Part 4. Financial execution of the PND in 2013 The PND’s objective is to push development forward and eradicate poverty in Chad by diversifying the productive base of the economy, consolidating the underpinnings of growth, protecting the environment, adapting to climate change, and strengthening the country’s governance. Determining the budget for the 2013-2015 PND therefore began by establishing cost figures for the various projects and programs making up its pillars. The PND’s forecast budget for 2013 showed an execution rate of 81.0 percent. That indicates a satisfactory budget absorption capacity. Pillars 1, 2, and 3 showed financial execution rates of between 71 percent and 95 percent, while Pillar 4 showed a financial execution rate of 104.0 percent. With regard to Pillar 1, leaving aside the “Job creation” priority for which the only project planned was not carried out, the “BTP,” “Fisheries production,” and “Industry” priorities showed a relatively weak financial execution rate (between 40 percent and 65 percent). The energy, plant production, and regional integration sectors had higher funding levels than forecast (with the additional funding coming from the national budget, in the case of the plant production and regional integration sectors). For Pillar 2, leaving aside urban water systems and culture, the disbursement rate for most priority areas was around 95 percent. For housing and sanitation, the rates were 378 percent and 166 percent respectively, reflecting the carrying out of projects not initially envisioned. For Pillar 3, concerned with the environment, the disbursement rate was low except for the “Prevention and management of risks and catastrophes” priority, which benefited from additional external funding. Lastly, for Pillar 4, concerned with improving governance, three out of the four priorities saw their financial execution outstrip the forecast figures. That demonstrates how great the funding needs are in the area of improving governance. The chart below shows the gap between the forecast figures and disbursements for each of the four pillars. - 72 - Chart 7: 2013 financial execution by strategic pillar (in billions of CFA francs) Programmation Exécution Financière 2013 par axes stratégiques (en Milliards de FCFA) Programmation 2013, AXE 1 2013, AXE 2 Développement de Mobilisation et l’offre de valorisation du production et des capital humain et Programmation Programmation 2013 opportunités lutte contre les 2013, AXE 3 Décaissement 2013 d’emplois décent,… inégalités, la… Protection de l'environnement et Programmation lutte contre les 2013, AXE 4 changements Amélioration de la climatiques, 70 gouvernance, 55 Sources: Reports from the Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB) and Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI). Legend for Chart 7 French English Programmation 2013 Programmed for 2013 Décaissement 2013 Disbursed in 2013 [Translator’s note: The last line of the chart is unreadable.] [Translator’s note: The last line of the chart is unreadable.] The Chadian government honored its financial commitments in a proportion of 84.3 percent, and external partners in a proportion of 73.8 percent. That demonstrates the will, on the part of the Chadian authorities and their development partners alike, to fulfill their commitments to the benefit of economic and social development. - 73 - Table 16: Sources of PND financing in 2013 (in billions of CFA francs) 2013 programmed 2013 executed Execution rate External financing 614.6 513.8 83.6% Domestic financing 15 244.7 180.1 74.0% Total 859.3 694.8 80.8% Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI). For the three-year period covered by the 2013-2015 PND, 535 projects have been identified: 241 for Pillar 1, 164 for Pillar 2, 59 for Pillar 3, and 71 for Pillar 4. All together, the 297 development projects and programs in 2013, financed in part using domestic resources or external resources (114) and entered in the Initial Budget Law (LFI 2013), have on average had a financial execution rate of 80.0 percent. Table 17: Budget and execution status of projects under the 2013-2015 PND Number of projects over the three years (2013, 2014, and 2015) Identified Financed Financed by Executed in Not budgeted, Financed over three Budgeted by the the government 2013 but executed by TFPs years government and by TFPs Pillar 1 241 117 136 4 88 14 15 Pillar 2 164 98 96 2 59 27 12 Pillar 3 59 31 40 1 13 10 8 Pillar 4 71 51 48 3 23 19 9 Total 535 297 320 10 183 70 44 Source: Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation (MPCI). Table 19: PND budget forecasts and budget execution in 2013 (in [billions of] CFA francs) Programmed 2013 Disbursed 2013 Financial execution Strategy Gov’t TFPs Total Gov’t TFPs Total rate 2013 Pillar 1: Developing production supply and opportunities for decent employment Water 11.14 11.32 22.46 17.15 1.65 18.79 84% Plant production 4.09 5.17 9.25 10.03 3.00 13.03 141% Animal production 14.13 6.97 21.10 13.60 2.97 16.57 79% Fisheries production 1.17 2.89 4.06 0.30 1.70 2.00 49% Wood and non-wood production – – – – – – – Job creation and training 0.10 – 0.10 – – – 0% 15 Base commitments for government financing. - 74 - Programmed 2013 Disbursed 2013 Financial execution Strategy Gov’t TFPs Total Gov’t TFPs Total rate 2013 Promotion of SMEs 4.45 0.02 4.47 4.18 0.02 4.20 94% Development of extractive industries 7.90 – 7.90 7.52 – 7.52 95% Industry and manufacturing 1.80 0.02 1.83 0.99 0.02 1.01 56% Commerce 0.90 0.24 1.14 0.92 0.05 0.97 85% Artisan activities – – – – – – – Tourism 12.76 – 12.76 11.46 – 11.46 90% Financial sector 9.23 1.05 10.28 9.18 0.82 9.99 97% Infrastructure and transport 281.58 62.55 344.12 185.77 26.24 212.01 62% Energy 9.58 5.33 14.91 5.62 23.95 29.56 198% ICTs 3.58 1.00 4.58 2.63 0.63 3.26 71% BTP 19.20 0.09 19.28 7.69 0.09 7.78 40% Research and Development 2.72 0.46 3.18 2.72 0.21 2.93 92% Regional integration 0.05 – 0.05 0.24 – 0.24 462% Mobilizing the skills and abilities of 0.03 0.20 0.23 0.03 – – 83% Chadian expatriates Total: Pillar 1 384.39 97.31 481.70 280.03 61.33 341.52 71% Pillar 2: Mobilizing and enhancing the value of human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion Education at the primary, secondary, 24.86 14.10 38.96 27.86 7.88 35.74 92% technical, and vocational levels Postsecondary education and 60.52 2.00 62.52 58.15 1.30 59.45 95% scientific research Health 62.63 38.20 100.83 65.80 27.09 92.89 92% Nutrition – 6.50 6.50 – 5.85 5.85 90% Village water systems 5.09 14.30 19.40 5.52 11.35 16.87 87% Urban water systems 0.15 0.66 0.81 0.25 0.01 0.26 32% Hygiene and sanitation 0.60 3.06 3.66 0.47 5.63 6.09 166% Social protection, equity promotion, 5.26 3.23 8.49 5.95 1.42 7.37 87% and gender equality Population – – – – – – – Housing 2.00 – 2.00 7.58 – 7.58 378% Recreation, youth, sports 6.64 0.10 6.74 6.30 0.11 6.40 95% Culture 2.18 0.37 2.55 1.30 0.39 1.69 66% Total: Pillar 2 169.93 82.53 252.46 179.18 61.01 240.19 95% Pillar 3: Environmental protection and combating climate change Fighting to save Lake Chad and other 0.08 5.32 5.40 0.08 2.82 2.90 54% ecosystems Rural, urban, and suburban land 10.65 7.63 18.28 4.00 4.51 8.52 47% planning Risk and disaster prevention and 6.28 18.58 24.87 6.00 22.26 28.26 114% management Fighting desertification and preserving 9.91 11.26 21.18 8.44 7.46 15.90 75% biodiversity Total: Pillar 3 26.92 42.80 69.73 18.53 37.06 55.59 80% Pillar 4: Improving governance Modernizing the State and reforming 24.22 5.68 29.91 21.00 7.07 28.07 94% the civil service Strengthening decentralization 1.81 3.64 5.45 4.88 3.24 8.12 149% Promoting human rights, peace, and 5.38 9.05 14.43 7.07 7.37 14.44 100% social cohesion Pursuing justice reform, affirmative 1.97 3.71 5.68 3.11 3.74 6.85 121% consolidation of the public sector, and good governance Total: Pillar 4 33.39 22.07 55.46 36.06 21.42 57.48 104% - 75 - Part 5. Challenges, outlook, and recommendations 5.1 Challenges to be addressed to improve the PND’s implementation The partial implementation of the PND to date points to some major challenges which, if addressed, will make it possible to improve the PND’s implementation. The challenge of mobilizing financial resources to carry out projects: Although the PND’s Priority Action Plan is backed up by national budgets, there is a serious bottleneck in mobilizing the resources (the effective disbursement of the funds allocated). From budget allocation to actual disbursement there is still a significant time lag for a variety of reasons (cumbersome financial procedures, or regular annual supplementary estimates). Challenges of ownership and buy-in: Although the process of drawing up the PND has been open, participatory, and sequential, there remain some supervisory and professional staff members in sector departments who do not have a sense of ownership of the PND and do not identify with it. In that situation, it is difficult to make the PND an ongoing tool for planning development strategy. Not only does that pose a problem for planning and implementation, it also poses a problem for monitoring implementation from the gathering of reliable data to the processing of information so that an accurate implementation report can be prepared. Challenges in managing regional and subregional crises: Chad’s intervention in Mali and the Central African Republic, and its taking charge of refugees from the Central African Republic who have been repatriated, have cost the country dearly in terms of financial, material, and human resources. Resources initially intended to implement PND projects— financial resources above all—have been redirected to managing these crises. This has had severe repercussions on the proper implementation of the PND. 5.2 Outlook and recommendations In this new context characterized by regional and international positioning, stability of the political system, building of peaceable relationships with neighboring countries, adoption of the National Development Plan for the economy, and participation in the African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM), there is a new optimism recognizing Chad’s emergence, In June 2014, the government plans to organize a meeting to mobilize funding for the PND’s implementation, This will be a prime moment to advance the case at the international level for the effective consolidation and strengthening of a dynamic economic, political, social, and cultural emergence of a new Chad. Chad has the advantage of being able to base its development programs on a long-term Vision clearly enunciated by its Head of State. It can therefore elaborate its strategies and programs taking a coherent approach aimed at bringing the country to the status of an emerging power in 10 years (with a view to 2030), pursuing the 2016-2020, 2021-2025, and 2026-2030 Five-Year Plans. - 76 - Vision 2030, yet to be drawn up, will take account of certain actions to be implemented in 15 years’ time to bring the country up to the point of transformation. It will emphasize cultural, social, and environmental issues as a basis for that transformation. We intend to see changes made as soon as possible based on the rapid transformations that Chadian society will undergo during and after the petroleum era. The advantage of having Vision 2030 is that it will make long-term development forecasts possible. This Vision document will provide a foundation for further work to be pursued, particularly setting out a detailed timetable for the activities to be carried out over a nine-month time frame as well as the budgeting and associated tasks. Phase 0: Preparations. Setting up teams, adopting legal and regulatory texts, issuing calls for bids. This phase will be of one month’s duration. Phase 1: Analysis. This phase will be of three months’ duration, to analyze cultural aspects, social aspects, political aspects, environmental aspects, technological aspects, and so forth. Phase 2: Constructing scenarios. This phase will bring together, as a whole, the weaknesses, opportunities, and risks identified in Phase 1. It will also make it possible for exploratory and underlying scenarios and the associated risks to be constructed. It will be of two months’ duration. Phase 3: Choosing scenarios and devising strategic options so that the Vision can be achieved. On the basis of the foregoing analysis, this phase will be reserved for developing the Vision, and its strategic pillars and core directions. It will be of three months’ duration. Maintaining the timetable for the various phases and pursuing a participatory approach will ensure that the preparatory work for the 2016-2020 Five-Year Plan will be completed on schedule. Based on the foregoing considerations, the following recommendations are presented: Recommendation 1: Strengthen requests to TFPs and funding agencies to mobilize the necessary financial resources for implementing the PND. Recommendation 2: Mobilize the necessary resources to support the strategic planning process to advance Chad’s development. Recommendation 3: Strengthen the capacities (human, financial, and material) of actors and organizational units making up the PND’s monitoring and evaluation apparatus. Give special attention to financing household consumer surveys to provide up-to-date data on poverty and people’s living conditions. - 77 - Recommendation 4: Ensure that the entities making up the PND’s monitoring and evaluation apparatus operate effectively. Recommendation 5: Prepare a work plan for monitoring the implementation of the PND, including an analysis of coordination mechanisms and management of aid flows. - 78 - Part 6. Annexes 6.1 Annex 1: Results-measurement framework for the 2013-2015 PND Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators Pillar 1: Promoting production supply and decent employment 1. Rate of government investment as a proportion 1. Real economic growth rate (global GDP) of GDP 2012 baseline value (13.9%) / 2013 value (10.3%) 2012 baseline value 2012 (8.9%) / 2013 value (3%) 2015 target (10.7%) 2015 target (7.2%) R1 – Strong sustainable, Pillar 1 sector 2. Amount of oil extracted (barrels) inclusive economic priorities as a 2012 baseline value (40,000)/2013 value (80,000) growth whole 2015 target (60,000) 3. Amount of gold ore produced (grams) - 79 - 2012 baseline value (9 875)/2013 value (13951) 2015 target (50,000) 2. Agriculture (plant production, animal production, 4. Land managed, used to sow crops (hectares) fisheries production), expressed as a proportion of 2011 baseline value (200) / 2013 value (12,380 hectares) according to GDP the evaluation of the Five-Year Plan Baseline value (23%) / 2013 value (24.77%) Rural sector 2015 target (20,000) according to the ministry’s Five-Year Plan development and 2015 target (25%) 5. Number of water points for livestock producers food security 2011 baseline value (1296)/2013 value (1,868) R2 – Food security and 2015 target (2,386) promotion of nutrition 6. Rate of vaccination coverage against contagious peripneumonia 2012 baseline value (15%) / 2013 value (18%) 2015 target (50%) 7. Rate of farm mechanization (plows) 2001 baseline value (24%) / 2009 value (39.72%) Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators 2015 target (40%) 8. Amount of improved seed distributed 2010 baseline value (20,000) / 2013 value (2,576.5 metric tons) 2015 target (200,000) 3. Proportion of the population with food security 9. Stockpiles to assure food security (metric tons) 2012 baseline value (65.8%) / 2013 value (78%) 2012 baseline value (35,042) / 2013 value (39,438.82 metric tons, including 15,685 metric tons of grain belonging to the government) 2015 target (90%) 2015 target (100,000) 4. Rate of young people’s access to employment 10. Number of young people trained in occupations following graduation from training centers and institutions / 2013 value (N/A) Baseline value (4,395) / 2013 value (6,000): This relates to R3 – Improved access to programming and forecasting in regard to new recruitment for the civil Job creation and - 80 - employment, and service training creation of decent jobs 2010 baseline value (10%) 2015 target (not indicated) 2015 target (15%) 5. Ease of doing business (ranking) 11. Average number of days required to create a business Baseline value (185/185) / 2013 value (189/189) 2012 baseline value (2 weeks) / 2013 value (62 days) 2015 target (173/185) 2015 target (72 hours) Development of R4 – The development of the private sector the private sector and improvement of the business environment is assured 12. Time required to register property title (days) 2012 baseline value (44) / 2013 value (44) 2015 target (N/A) R5 – Development of 6. Proportion of households with at least one Development of 13. All-weather roads as a proportion of the permanent road and infrastructure and ICTs is telephone support highway system Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators sustained infrastructure Baseline value (31.6%) / 2013 value (39.39%) 2001 baseline value (20%) / 2013 value (86%) 2015 target (50%) 2015 target (50%) 7. Rate of access to electric power 14. Number of secondary rural roads rehabilitated (km/year) Baseline value (3.7%) / 2013value (3.9%) 2012 baseline value (2,130 km) / 2013 baseline value (2,169 km) 2015 target (5%) 2015 target (6,000 km) 8. Rate of Internet access 15. Paved primary roads (km) 2011 baseline value (4.7%) 2010 baseline value (1,505 km ) / 2013 value (2,020 km) 2015 target (5.5%) 2015 target (3,091 km) Pillar 2: Mobilizing and enhancing the value of human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion 9. Human Development Index 16. Education’s share of the national budget (excluding debt) - 81 - 2012 baseline value (0.34) / 2013 value (0.34) 2012 baseline value (8.7%) / 2013 value (8.67%) 2015 target (N/A) 2015 target (20%) 17. Student/teacher ratio 10. Poverty index 2012 baseline value (61) / 2013 value (58) 2011 baseline value (46.7%) / projected 2013 value 2015 target (55) (42.7%) Education 2015 target (40.5%) 18. Number of teachers trained a year Baseline value (N/A) / 2013 value (1603) 2015 target (N/A) 19. Primary-school gross enrollment rates (for boys – for girls) 11. Primary-school net enrollment rate (aged 6 to 11 years) 2011-2012 baseline value (40.5%) / 2013 value 2012 baseline values (111.6 – 84.5) / 2013 values (107.52%– 82.09%) (65.6%) 2015 target (60%) 2015 target (102% – 90%) R6 – Human capital Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators (health, education) and 20. Primary-school retention rates (for boys – for girls) social protection are strengthened 2012 baseline values (35.1 – 25.7) / 2013 values (39.21% – 28.57%) 12. Adult literacy rates, including women / 2013 2015 target (60) values (N/A) 2009 baseline values (22.39% – 14%) / 2013 values 21. Primary-school repeater rate (%) 2015 target (55% – 35%) 2012 baseline value (23%) / 2013 value (25%) 2015 target (17%) 22. Primary-school completion rates (for boys – for girls) 2012 baseline values (48.2% – 28.9%) / 2013 values (47.73% – 29.05%) - 82 - 2015 target (59%) 23. Number of students per class in secondary-school education 2011 baseline value (74) / 2012 value (76) / 2013 value (65) 2015 target (50) 13. Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 live births) 24. Share of health in the budget (excluding debt) 2010 baseline value (106) / value (98) 2012 baseline value (10%) / 2013 value (9.8%) 2015 target (64) 2015 target (20%) 25. Neonatal mortality rate (per 1,000 births) Health 2012 baseline value (48) / 2013 value (39) 2015 target (12) 26. Infant and child mortality rates (per 1,000 births) 2012 baseline value (102) / 2013 value (161) 2015 target (64) 27. Proportion of births attended by qualified health personnel. Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators 2010 baseline value (22%) / 2013 value (28.45%) 2015 target (70%) R6 – Human capital 28. Rate of postnatal care (health, education) and social protection are 2012 baseline value (4%) / 2013 value (4%) strengthened 2015 target (50%) 29. Percentage of the population living within 10 kilometers of a health unit 2011 baseline value (51.8) / 2013 value (study under way) 2015 target (80%) 30. Proportion of health districts and health centers that are operational 2012 baseline value (66% / 74%) / 2013 value (70.59% / 81.3%) - 83 - 2015 target (90/90) 31. Number of inhabitants per doctor (M), per midwife, and per accredited nurse (IDE) 2012 baseline values (1 M/39,762 – 1 IDE/2,429) / 2013 value (1 M/23,182 – 1 IDE/3,625 – 1 midwife/6,403) 2015 target (1 M/1,185 – 1 IDE/1,000 ) 32. Rate of acute respiratory infection 2012 baseline value (12.35) / 2013 value (10.11%) 2015 target (N/A) 33. Malaria prevalence rate 2012 baseline value (28) / 2013 value (28.21%) 2015 target (20%) 34. DTP3 vaccination rate 2010 baseline value (16%) / 2013 value (82%) 2015 target (80%) 14. Maternal mortality rate (per 100,000) 35. Prevalence of syphilis among pregnant women 2009 baseline value (1084) / value (1084) 1998 baseline value (6%) / 2013 value (4.47%) Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators 2015 target (275) 2015 target (4%) 36. Number of cases of genital ulcers treated 2011 baseline value (7,373) / 2013 value (7,019) 2015 target (3,500) 37. Number of cases of purulent urethritis treated 2011 baseline value (8,131) / 2013 value (7,074) 2015 target (4,000) 15. Rate of prevalence of HIV/AIDS (15 to 24 years) 38. Number of condoms sold per year (AMASOT) 2012 baseline value (3.4%) / 2013 value (3.3%) 2010 baseline value (4,000,000) / 2013 value (5,908,625) 2015 target (3%) 2015 target (N/A) - 84 - 16. Rate of prevalence of low birthweight in 39. Rate of acute malnutrition among children less than five years of age children less than five years of age 2007 baseline value (16%) / value 2013 (10.6%) 2010 baseline value (30.3%) / 2013 value (study under way) 2015 target (10%) 2015 target (15%) 40. Proportion of infants that are breastfed exclusively 17. Proportion of the population vulnerable to 2012 baseline value (3.4%) / 2013 value (study under way) severe food insecurity Nutrition 2015 target (10%) 2012 baseline value (11%) / 2013 value (survey in progress) 41. Vitamin A supplement coverage 2015 target (7%) 2012 baseline value (97.5%) / 2013 value (under way) R6 – Human capital 18. Rate of chronic malnutrition (health, education) and 2015 target (100%) social protection are 2010 baseline value (38.7) / 2013 value (study to be strengthened done) 2015 target (30%) 19. Rate of clean drinking water coverage in rural areas Clean drinking 42. Rate of clean drinking water coverage in urban areas 2011 baseline value (48%) / 2013 value (50%) water, hygiene, 2011 baseline value (37%) / 2013 value (46%) and sanitation 2015 target (61%) 2015 target (70%) Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators 43. Proportion of households having access to working latrines 2011 baseline value (12%)/ 2013 value (16%) 2015 target (35%) 20. Proportion of the population covered by social protection (social security) Social protection, 44. Proportion of women in decision-making roles (government minister equity promotion, or member of the National Assembly) Baseline value (4%) / 2013 value (5.2%) and gender Baseline value (15%) / 2013 value (22%) 2015 target (10%) equality 2015 target (30%) 21. Total fertility rate 45. Rate of contraceptive use (aged 15 to 49 years) 2009 baseline value (7) / value 2013 (7.1) 2004 baseline value (3%) / 2013 value (1.6%) 2015 target (5) - 85 - 2015 target (10%) 22. Proportion of households living in a decent 46. Number of plots of land in which sanitation works have been carried dwelling out 2013 baseline value (850) 2011 baseline value (28%) 2015 target (3,000) 2015 target (32%) 47. Length of sewer pipes built per year, in kilometers Population and housing 2013 baseline value (7) 2015 target (15) 48. Length of drainage channels built per year, in kilometers 2012 baseline value (108 )/ 2013 value (N/A) 2015 target (228) Pillar 3: Environmental protection and combating climate change R7 – Environmental 23. Annual rate of deforestation Fighting to save 49. Number of areas protected protection and adaptation Baseline value (2.5%) Lake Chad and to climate change are other ecosystems Baseline value (3 parks and 7 wildlife reserves) 2013 Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators assured 2015 target (0.5%) 2015 target (5 parks and 10 wildlife reserves) 50. Area of land reforested, in hectares Baseline value (10,000) 2015 target (20,000) 51. National land management plan adopted 2012 baseline value (0) / 2013 value (1) Rural, urban, and 2015 target (1) suburban land planning 52. Number of regional land management plans adopted Baseline value (0) / 2013 value (4) 2015 target (22 regional plans adopted) Pillar 4: Improving governance - 86 - 24. Score for the perception of corruption in the 53. Number of quarterly information bulletins on government public sector procurement published each year 2011 baseline value (19) / 2013 value (19) Baseline value (0) 2015 target (N/A) 2015 target (4) 54. Publication of reports of the Bureau of Auditors in accordance with the deadlines established pursuant to laws and regulations Modernizing the State, reforming Baseline value (0) government 2015 target (N/A) R8 – Governance is finance, and promoted and reforming the 55. Proportion of government procurement approved by direct purchase strengthened civil service out of total public procurement (by value) 2012 baseline value (54% representing 82% of total government procurement) / 2013 value (less than 10%, representing 44% of total government procurement) 2015 target (N/A) 56. Proportion of expenditures made before a payment order has been issued Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators 2012 baseline value (N/A) 2013 value (18%) 2015 target (<20%) 57. Number of budget execution reports published in timely fashion each year Baseline value (0) 2015 target (1) 58. Annual EITI reports published in timely fashion Baseline value (1) / 2013 value (1) 2015 target (1) 59. Tax ratio - 87 - 2012 baseline value (9%) / 2013 value (9.5%) 2015 target (12.7%) 60. Regional and departmental elections held 2012 baseline value (No) / 2013 value (No) 2015 target (Yes) 61. Communal development plans (PDCs) adopted per year Strengthening 2012 baseline value (0) / 2013 value (1) decentralization 2015 target (3) 62. National budget allocated to local communities Baseline value (0) / 2013 value (CFAF 3,344,000,000) 2015 target (N/A) Promoting human 63. Number of judges rights, and pursuing justice Baseline value (216 judges)/ 2013 value (227) reform and good 2015 target (359 judges) Strategic results Strategic results indicators Sector priorities Intermediate-results indicators governance 64. Number of professional justices of the peace Baseline value (54) / 2013 value (47) 2015 target (0) 65. Number of regular human rights reports published each year Baseline value (0) / 2013 value (5) 2015 target (3) - 88 - 6.2 Annex 2: Monitoring and follow-up of HIPC Initiative and governance indicators Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) Pillar 1: Promoting production supply and decent employment R1 – Strong sustainable, inclusive economic growth 5. Number of water points Ministry of Water Systems There were 1,296 water points in 2011. By 2013, the for livestock producers 1,296 (2011) 2,386 290 total had risen to 1,868. In 2012 and 2013, 572 new water points were constructed (290 of them in 2013). 7. Rate of farm Ministry of Agriculture The objective was to increase the rate of producers mechanization (plows) equipped with plows by 2% annually (i.e., 1,600 plows), so that 26% of producers would be equipped with plows by 2015. The baseline was the figure from 2000, which indicated that 24% of producers were 24% (2001) 40% 39.72% equipped with plows. The pace was accelerated, with - 89 - 39.72% of producers being equipped with plows in 2009 thanks to the HIPC Initiative outcome concluded in 2001 and the government’s subsidy for sales of plows. R5 – Development of infrastructure and ICTs is sustained 13. All-weather roads as a Ministry of Infrastructure proportion of the permanent road and highway system Improvement in this indicator is attributable to the rehabilitation or paving of existing roads, or building of 20% (2001) 50% 86% new roads. Projects currently under way will make it possible to achieve the target. Pillar 2: Mobilizing and enhancing the value of human capital and combating inequality, poverty, and social exclusion R6 – Human capital (health, education) and social protection are strengthened 19. Primary-school gross Ministry of Education 98.2% in 2012 enrollment rates (for boys – basic education (111.6% – (107.52% – This is a provisional indicator. Statistical data on more 115% for girls) 84.5%) 82.09%) than 1,000 schools taken into account in 2012 are now being input. Construction is planned in 2014 and 2015. Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) 21. Primary-school repeater The evolution of this indicator is attributable to (i) the rate (boys – girls) large number of teachers who have not yet been trained and (ii) classroom overcrowding. Nevertheless, training 23% 17% 25% programs have been conducted and work is under way to hire 1,400 community teachers who have been trained. Every year, 5,000 teachers trained at the National Teacher Training College are recruited. Secondary-school repeater 46.7% en rate 2012 (25.7% – 42% 26.4%) 20% (23% – 22%) Secondary-school gross 27.93% en enrollment rates 2012 - 90 - (17.83% – 30% 8.85%) 50% (19% – 11%) A little progress was seen in 2013 owing to increased availability 27. Proportion of births Efforts have been made to expand the supply of health attended by qualified 22% (2010) 70% 46.86 services by building infrastructure and strengthening personnel in 2010 the capacities of human resources working in health units. 30. Proportion of health districts and health centers 66% / 74% 70.59% / that are operational 90% / 90% (2012) 81.30% 34. DTP3 vaccination rate 16% (2001) 80% 82% 35. Prevalence of syphilis No survey has been carried out, so no information is 6% (1998) 4% N/A among pregnant women available. 36. Number of cases of genital ulcers treated 7,373 (2001) 3,500 7,019 Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) 37. Number of cases of 8,131 (2001) 4,000 7,074 purulent urethritis treated 38. Number of condoms Ministry of Planning 2,239,000 sold per year (AMASOT) 5,908,625 (2000) 42. Rate of clean drinking Ministry of Water Systems water coverage in urban and 37%-48% 61% 46% rural areas Pillar 4: Improving governance R8 – Governance is promoted and strengthened Modernizing the State, reforming government finance, and reforming the civil service 53. Number of quarterly SGG - OCMP information bulletins on 0 One bulletin posted in 2014 on the website of the 4 1 government procurement Ministry of Finance and Budget (MFB) concerning published each year public procurement in 2013. Report for 2013 available. - 91 - 54. Publication of reports of Bureau of Auditors 0 the Bureau of Auditors in accordance with the deadlines established pursuant to laws and regulations 55. Proportion of SGG - OCMP 54% In 2012, 54% of government procurement was by government procurement means of direct purchase, representing 82% of approved by direct purchase Less than 10% expenditures by value. In 2013, less than 10% of out of total public procurement was by means of direct purchase, procurement (by value) representing 44% of expenditures by value. 56. Proportion of Ministry of Finance and Budget A 2013 MFB directive established tighter restrictions expenditures made before a on expenditures made before a payment order has been <20% 18% payment order has been issued. issued 57. Number of budget Validation of the 2013 budget execution report is now execution reports published under way. In 2014, these reports will be produced in timely fashion each year 0 (2012) 1 1 quarterly. 58. Annual EITI reports EITI Permanent Secretariat The report is available. 1 1 1 published in timely fashion Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) 59. Tax ratio (excluding oil) Ministry of Finance and Budget (Tax ratio to be confirmed in the 9% 12.70% budget execution report) 24. Score for the perception Report from Transparency A strategy to of corruption in the public International combat sector corruption has been adopted from the 19 technical standpoint. It will need to be validated by the government. - 92 - Regional and departmental elections are planned for 2014. First, it will be necessary to No Yes refine the boundaries of some local Ministry of Decentralization community administrations 60. Regional and (CTDs) (now departmental elections held under way). A validation workshop for the manual for 0 3 61. Communal development developing plans (PDCs) adopted per PDCs was held year in November Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) 2013. That manual has enabled PDCs to be prepared for Bébédja and Moundou In 2013, CFAF 3,344,000,000 was allocated to the 42 elected communes. A budget of CFAF 0 4,150,000,000 is envisaged for the - 93 - government’s 62. National budget allocations to allocated to local the communes communities in 2014. Promoting human rights, and pursuing justice reform and good governance Eleven judges were recruited in 2012 and 58 were trained in 2012-2013. They will enter the judiciary in 216 (2011) 359 227 (2012) 2015. Fifty-two justices of the peace will enter the judiciary; and some judges will be named on the basis 63. Number of judges Ministry of Justice of their curricula vitae. In 2013, Chad had 52 justices of the peace. Beginning 64. Number of professional 54 0 52 in 2014, they will enter the judiciary after one year’s justices of the peace upgrade training. Baseline 2015 2013 Results indicators Source values Explanations for differences targets completion (base year) All together, 23 reports were prepared in 2013, 18 of them from regional human rights delegations on specific topics (lack of security; community conflicts; prolonged, arbitrary detention; inhuman and degrading torture and treatment; etc.). Five missions have been conducted to raise awareness and distribute information 3 5 widely with respect to human rights, in collaboration with UN bodies and NGOs, on subjects relating to the treatment of children, genital mutilation, the United 65. Number of regular Nations Convention on the elimination of human rights reports discrimination against women, the country’s basic law, published each year Ministry for Human Rights etc. - 94 -