Central Asia Water & Energy Program Working for Energy and Water Security Development Aspirations of Central Asia THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse scarcity of water resources have strained relations region enjoying steady economic growth and new among the countries of the region. Climate change development opportunities. A key element in the and population growth have the potential to strain continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being resources and relations further. of the population is the smart management of the region’s energy and water resources. The Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) recognizes that strengthened water and energy Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized, resources management at the national and regional national aspirations, such as food security and reliable levels can lead to increased incomes, poverty reduction, energy services, still drive development decisions. The sustainable development, shared prosperity, and climate competition for energy markets and the anticipated resilience across the region. THE WORLD BANK 2 The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources Central Asia is endowed with water and varied Change of Water Availability in Central Asia energy resources—fossil fuels: oil, gas, and coal, Categories of water availability and even more abundant renewables: hydro- thousand m3/capita/year >1.7 significant 10 1.0-1.7 not significant power, wind and solar. These resources can support 9 8.4 <1.0 shortage 8 increased agricultural production and have the 7 Central Asia 6 5.9 Europe potential to exceed domestic energy demand to 5 4.2 4 supply export markets. 3 2.55 2 1 years However, water and energy resources are unevenly 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 distributed across the region and access varies. In some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a critical value of less than 1.7 th. m3/year. And it is still necessary to an- and inefficient. Some communities cannot meet nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the citizens’ electricity needs during certain times of the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption. year, while others lack adequate water supply. Source: EC IFAS Working at the national and regional levels Total Fossil Fuel MTOE Coal MTOE KAZAKH STA N Crude Oil MTOE 22,629 to manage water and energy resources Gas MTOE 4,080 16,000 Hydro MTOE 2,549 can bring: MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent 58 • Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages KYRG YZ REPUBL I C • Higher earnings generated by exporting 5 590 580 and trading energy U ZBEKI STA N 5 266 4,589 • Greater agricultural productivity through 80 2,851 1,657 more reliable access to water 32 • Improved water quality and reduced land CH I N A degradation TAJI KI STAN 514 • Better adaptation to climate change and 507 2 water/hydrological variability TURKMENI STA N 5 412 • Cost-effective infrastructure development 82 2,698 68 • Enhanced environment for international 2,549 4 and private investment for both water A FG H A N I STA N and energy Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian Development Bank. 2009 3 Water Melting snow from high mountain peaks and precipita- tion provide the seasonal flows to the two major rivers that feed the Aral Sea Basin: the Amu Darya and the Syr Darya. The origins of the Syr Darya are the snow-covered slopes of the Tien Shan Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic. The Amu Darya originates from the glaciated northern slopes of the Hindu Kush and from Wakhan in the Pamir Highlands in Afghanistan and the Pamirs in Tajikistan. 4 Water Resources in Central Asia Water is a vital resource across the region. Both the Syr Darya and the Amu Darya river systems have the potential to provide abundant low-carbon hydropow- er. At the same time, these and other rivers are vital arteries for livelihoods—providing water for agricul- ture and local fisheries, and sustaining environmental ecosystems, human health, and electricity generation across Central Asia. However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50 percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96 percent, compromising both agricultural productivity and water quality. Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and THE WORLD BANK implement innovative irrigation technologies to ad- dress these problems and improve food security and resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead, population growth and the need for increased agri- utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed cultural production will continue to strain the region’s improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to water resources, making smart water management alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a both nationally and regionally a key factor for the 1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh- result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10 stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million percent increase in water pumping efficiency would hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters result in regional savings of $188 million per year. for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib- Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia. 5 Aralsk Northern Aral Sea (38) 5 Population (millions) 18 GNI per capita (US$) $7,970 GDP (billions US$) $162.9 Southern % rural population w/access to an 86% Aral Sea improved water source (2010) Kazakhstan seasonal lake Land area (1,000 sq. km) 2,725 Ar a l K u m Muynak Population (millions) 6.2 GNI per capita (US$) $1,130 Karakalpakstan 7.9 GDP (billions US$) $7.6 Sarygamysh Planned collector % rural population w/access to an 82% Lake improved water source (2010) Kar Kyrgyz Republic Land area (1,000 sq. km) 192 aB og az Dashoguz 6.5 UZ Go l Horezm 4.4 Golden Age Lake Population (millions) 8.9 (under construction) (UZB) GNI per capita (US$) $990 Dashoguz Collector GDP (billions US$) $7.1 (under construction) Lebap 3.9 % rural population w/access to an 64% Tajikistan improved water source (2010) T U R K M E N I S T A N Land area (1,000 sq. km) 141 Great Turkmen Collector (under construction) Population (millions) 5.8 GNI per capita (US$) $6,380 GDP (billions US$) $37.9 Ashgabat % rural population w/access to an 54% 1.5 improved water source (2010) Turkmenistan Land area (1,000 sq. km) 488 0.9 K Murgab Population (millions) 32.4 Tejen GNI per capita (US$) $2,000 GDP (billions US$) $49.7 % rural population w/access to an 81% I.R. OF Uzbekistan improved water source (2010) Land area (1,000 sq. km) 447 IRAN Source: World Bank 2017 0 250 500 750 1000 km 6 © Zoï Environment Network WAT E R R E S O U RC E S OF T HE AR AL SE A B ASIN Lake Balkhash Ili K A Z A K H S T A N KAZ 10 Sy rD Bishkek ar Ysik-Kol y a 1 Chirchik- K Y R G Y Z R E P. Charvak Naryn Ahangaran 15 ZBEKISTAN Tashkent 9 UZB 10 KYR 3 (37) 4 Kara Darya UZB 5.3 Aydar Lake TJK 2 1 Rivers of 2 Ferghana Valley: 8 UZB 10 Zar a fsh a n KYR 0.1 Amu-Bukhara 5.2 C H I N A Kashkadarya 5.3 Kafarnigan 0.3 TJK 6.6 hsh 1.2 Vak Dushanbe TAJIKISTAN Surhandarya nj Karshi 4.19 UZB 0.6 Pa 1.5 Sherabad 1.4 Am 0.5 uD 0.2 4 20.2 ary a 5.6 Karakum Canal 11 Kokcha 33.3 Average river flow and water intake by canals Rivers of Northern (km3/year) Prospective expansion of irrigation Afghanistan: 6.1 70 Water discharge 30 (km3/year) A F G H A N I S T A N 10 5 duz Kun Mountain regions above 2000 metres Kabul Irrigated lands Hari Rud 7 Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net Energy Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective and environ- the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, mentally friendly manner—taking maximum advantage and Turkmenistan there are significant reserves of oil, of abundant low-cost hydropower in the summer, and gas and coal, as well as wind and solar potential. The having the reliability of thermal resources in winter upstream countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic, are when the cold climate limits hydropower supplies; particularly rich in undeveloped hydropower potential. while at the same time building capacity to exploit the The diversity of such a mixed energy system offers an vast wind and solar potential in the future. opportunity to meet all countries’ electricity needs on THE WORLD BANK 8 Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs Current energy systems are becoming less reliable The countries are working to rehabilitate existing as the Central Asia power system deteriorates. The facilities, provide new generation infrastructure for region is trading 90 percent less energy than in the energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new early 1990s. Although new transmission lines linking models for energy trade—both within and outside the north and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improve five-country community. the distribution situation, these plentiful resources do not always meet domestic needs and around 2 million households across the region used to be affected by winter heat and power shortages per year. THE WORLD BANK © RICHARD FUGGLE www.energia.gr 9 10 C ENT RA L ASIA EN ER GY IN FR AST R UC T UR E More effective energy and water management, including at the regional level, could accelerate investment, promote economic growth and stable livelihoods and improve environmental quality: • Unrealized benefits from regional power trade in • In one Central Asian country, comprehensive Central Asia were estimated at around US$5.2 billion energy efficiency measures could reduce energy in the period 2010-2014. costs by $12.3 billion by 2030, avoiding invest- ments in new generating plants and reducing • $200 million per year in new revenues from energy fuel consumption. exports to South Asia from the initial phases of the CASA 1000 project. Source: World Bank 2017 11 Climate Change in Central Asia Central Asia is one of Europe and Central Asia’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting to Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that average temperatures in the region have already increased by 0.5°C and are projected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C by 2030-50. The cumulative effects of climate change and the near-depletion of the Aral Sea are further increasing water-related stress. Increasing temperatures lead to earlier snowmelt, shifting runoff into spring and reducing water flows in the irrigation season by up to 25 percent. Rapid glacier melt is increasing water flows for the time being. However, it is expected that once the Central Asia region reaches “peak water” by around 2050, this effect will be reversed, and river flows will decrease markedly.
 Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth and development in the region, not least of which are THE WORLD BANK energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather than an option, for the region. If current water management policies persist, wa- environmental assets. Of all the world’s regions, the ter scarcity could lead to a significant slowdown in impact of future water consumption patterns has the economic performance. At the same time, more ef- greatest impact on economic growth in Central Asia; ficient use of water in the economy could significantly the region has the most to gain (or to lose) from (not) contribute to increased agricultural production, green properly managing water resources under climate energy production and the health of the region’s change compared to other regions. 12 Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Climate-related impacts on GDP in 2050 Projected to Decrease? (ranges of impacts determined by policies) Average Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya water discharge m3/second 2,000 15 irrigation season 11,5 10 Range of variation in GDP (%) 1,600 Flow today 5 3,32 1,200 1,46 0 -0,01 0,38 0,09 0 -0,82 -0.02 -0.02 -0,49 800 -1,98 -5 -6,02 Projection 2071-2100 (A1B emission scenario) -7,08 -7,05 400 -10 -10,72 -11,7 0 -15 -14 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC North Western Middle Sahel Central Central EastAsia South- World Source: Shiklomanov 2009 America Europe East Africa Asia east Asia Source: World Bank. 2016. High and dry: climate change, water, and the economy (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank. org/curated/en/862571468196731247/ High-and-dry-climate-change-water-and- the-economy 13 Central Asia Water and Energy Program The Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) anchored in partnerships with governments to ensure that strengthens the enabling environment to promote energy program activities address national priorities. CAWEP coop- and water security at regional level and in the beneficiary erates with other development and financing partners to countries by leveraging the benefits of enhanced coopera- enhance the impact in meeting its objectives and to lever- tion. CAWEP promotes water and energy security working age investments by others. As the Program entered its third at the national scale to strengthen national institutional funding phase in 2018, the Program added Afghanistan as capacities and sector performance, while at the same time a sixth direct beneficiary country of CAWEP funds. This for- keeping regional cooperation on the dialogue agenda to malizes the ongoing practice of Afghanistan’s participation create an enabling environment for achieving national in multiple CAWEP activities, in particularly those focused and regional energy and water security. The Program is on regional consultations. The three pillars of the Central Asia Water and Energy Program Energy Security Water Security Energy-Water Linkages Promote and study high-value energy invest- Enhance the productive and efficient use of Improve the understanding of linkages between ments that focus on energy security, energy water in agriculture and energy sectors through energy, water and the environment at the efficiency, trade, infrastructure planning, ac- capacity strengthening, institutional strengthen- national and regional levels through dialogue, countability and institutional development. ing, and investment planning energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeo- rology investments and exploring the future impacts of climate change. Focus Focus Focus Energy security including National water sector strengthening, Regional hydrometeorology infrastructure planning; Improved regional water and water information systems; Energy trade; management; Climate resilience; Energy accountability; Sub-basin water management, Regional coordination Agriculture modernization and capacity building; Energy efficiency; Introduction of new technologies Knowledge Network and Youth Hydropower development and efficient delivery of water Engagement, Regional Energy supply services and Water Data Portal (web- based open access data), Landscape management 14 With a number of regional projects and programs successfully underway, CAWEP has es- tablished important “building blocks”. These activities identify critical infrastructure, insti- tutional and analytical constraints, and help establish long-term priorities for the program. CAWEP PATHWAYS TO ADDRESSING ENERGY-WATER LINKAGES 2010-2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018-2022 Workshop Road Map Implementation of the Knowledge Platform (Active) Investments National Consul- Strengthening Strengthening in Water tations (EWL) Analysis Analysis Information IWRM IWRM TA for Developing WIS in CA (Active) Systems (WIS) Central Asia Wa- ter Future Forum & Expo Assessment of the role of gla- ciers in stream flow TA Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project – CAHMP (Active) Preparation CAHMP Riparian Dialogue (Rogun Consultations) CASA-1000 Dialogue Support (Active) CASA-1000 (Active) 2nd CA First CA Climate Climate Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Program for the Aral Sea Basin Knowledge Knowledge (CAMP4ASB) $27 m (Active) Forum Forum ECA – Deep Dive – Turn Down the Heat LEGEND TA Regional Events Investment Projects Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central Asia Regional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy A Multi-Donor Trust Fund, managed by the World Bank, was estab- and water resources in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, lished in 2009 to help the Central Asian republics better address the Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. CAWEP brings together na- energy-water nexus challenges. The third financing phase will be tional and regional governments, civil society organizations and youth, implemented between January 2018 and December 2022. The third as well as bilateral development partners, international organization phase financiers include the European Union (EURO 7 million), Switzer- and financial institutions such as the World Bank. land (US$ 3.5 million) and the United Kingdom through DFID (US$ 1 The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that million) for a total program amount of around US$ 12.7 million dollars. program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAWEP An Advisory Committee of the Fund provides strategic guidance to welcomes cooperation among the development and financing commu- program. CAWEP has worked jointly with other development partners nities to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, includ- technical assistance, or contribute funds for core program activities. ing the Swiss Development Corporation (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Economic Com- mission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation. The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support liveli- hoods, economic growth and climate resilience in this important region of the world. For further information, please contact: William Young, CAWEP Program Manager, World Bank, wyoung@worldbank.org; Togzhan Alibekova, CAWEP Field-Based Liaison Officer, World Bank, talibekova@worldbank.org © Andrei Shevelov, Almaty, Kazakhstan