77945 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORKING PAPER 3  |  Transport Carole Megevand with Hari Dulal Loic Braune Johanna Wekhamp APRIL 2013 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORKING PAPER 3  |  Transport Carole Megevand with Hari Dulal Loic Braune Johanna Wehkamp APRIL 2013 Working Paper 3: Transport iii CONTENTS ACRONYMS. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . IX The Congo Basin suffers from an extremely poor transportation infrastructure….. . . . . . . . . . . xi …which impedes economic growth. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XI CHAPTER 1  TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE: AN INSUFFICIENT AND DETERIORATED NETWORK. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Structural Weaknesses of Transport Infrastructure .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Road Transportation Network.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 River Transportation Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Railways Network.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 A Highly Disconnected Regional Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Transportation System: High Price, Low Quality.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 CHAPTER 2  POOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE HAS “PROTECTED� THE FORESTS . 11 Typology of Impacts of Transport Infrastructure on Forests .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Poor Transport Infrastructure Has “Preserved� Forests . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Lack of Connectivity: Major Obstacle to Economic Development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Deforestation Rates in the Congo Basin Are Among the Lowest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 CHAPTER 3  FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS OF TRANSPORTATION: A THREAT FOR THE CONGO BASIN FORESTS?.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Transportation Enhancement: At the Top of the Political Agenda. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 A Priority for Congo Basin Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Many Regional and Continent-wide Programs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Potential Impacts of Transportation Infrastructure Development on Forest Cover . . . . . . . . . . 19 A Modeling Approach: CongoBIOM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Hypothesis under the “Improved Transport Infrastructure� Scenario . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 Impacts of Transportation Development on Forest Cover: Results from CongoBIOM .. . 22 Recommendations: How to Reconcile Transportation Enhancement and Forests Protection in the Congo Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Promote an Integrated Approach for Transport Infrastructure Development.. . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Foster Multi-modal Transport Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 iv Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Properly Assess Ex Ante Impacts of Transport Investments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Enforce Forest Protection and Manage Forest–Agriculture Frontier. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 CONCLUSION. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 REFERENCES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 ANNEXES. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Annex 1: New Transport Infrastructure Development and Repair of the Existing Infrastructure.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 List of Projects Used for the Simulation.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Annex 2: GLOBIOM Model—Formal Description. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 References. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 FIGURES Figure ES-1: Transport Service in Central Africa: Expensive and Low Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ix Figure ES-2: Impact of Change in Transportation Infrastructure on Travel Time and Costs. . . . . . . . x Figure I-1: Condition of Road Transport Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Figure I-2: Road Transport Quality Index for SSA Countries .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 Figure 1.1: Congo Basin: Road Network. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 Figure 1.2 Total Road Network Per Land Area (km/1000 km2) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 1.3 Total Road Network Per Population (km/1000 persons). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Figure 1.4: Ratio of Paved to Unpaved Roads . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 1.5: Rural Accessibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Figure 1.6: River Transportation Network in the Congo Basin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Figure 1.8: Factors Affecting Transportation Price . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 1.7: Transport Service in Central Africa: Expensive and Low Quality . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Figure 2.1: Changes in Forest Area in Main Regions in Africa on 1990–2010 period.. . . . . . . . . . . 15 Figure 2.2: Average Annual Deforestation and Forest Degradation Rates, 1990–2000 and 2000–2005 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Figure 3.1: Population Density Simulation in 2000 and 2030 (projected). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 3.2: Results of the Shocks in Terms of Areas Annually Deforested under the Different Scenarios, 2010–2030 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Figure 3.3: Impact of Change in Transportation Infrastructure on Travel Time and Costs. . . . . . . 23 Figure 3.4 Improvements of accessibility due to the planned infrastructure construction in the six Congo Basin countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 3.5: Internal transportation cost reduction deriving from infrastructure improvements per simulation unit (in US$/ton). .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 Figure 3.6: Yield of Major Crops in the Congo Basin. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Working Paper 3: Transport v TABLES Table 1.1: Rail Networks in Selected Congo Basin Countries.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Table 1.2: Freight Composition as Percent of Total Tonnage. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Table 1.3: Africa’s Key Transport Corridors for International Trade . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Table 1.4: Road Quality and Traffic for Corridors Linking Bangui to Gateways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Table 2.1: Potential Supply of Non-cultivated Non-forested Low-Population-Density (< 25 persons/km2) Land, Applying an Access to Market Criterion (million ha) .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Table 2.2: Changes in Forest Area in Africa and in the Main Negative Contributors to World Total Forest Area, 1990–2010. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 Table 3.1: Policy Shocks Tested with CongoBIOM and Main Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 BOXES Box 2.1: Temporal Sequence of Forest Loss in Latin American Countries. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Box 2.2: Connectivity between Provincial Capitals . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Box 3.1: The Consensual Road Network for Central Africa. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Box 3.2: Brief Presentation of the GLOBIOM. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Working Paper 3: Transport vii ACRONYMS AICD Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic CEMAC Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa CICOS International Commission for the Congo-Oubangui-Sangha Basin (Commission Internationale du Bassin Congo-Oubangui-Sangha) CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Capacity ECCAS Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa GHG greenhouse gas HFLD high-forest / low deforestation IWRM integrated water resources management LIC low-income country NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development OAU Organization of African Unity RAI rural accessibility index SSA Sub-Saharan Africa UAR Union of African Railways UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change VOC vehicle operating cost Working Paper 3: Transport ix ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This paper is one of the outputs of the global study Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection that was conducted by a multidisciplin- aryteam under the leadership of the World Bank at the request of the COMIFAC (Regional Commission in charge of Forestry in Central Africa) to strengthen the understanding of the defor- estation dynamics in the Congo Basin. This paper was prepared by Carole Megevand with contributions from Hari Dulal, Loic Braune, and Johanna Wehkamp. The team is grateful for useful guidance provided by Simon Rietbergen. The report was ably edited by Sheila Gagen. Maps and illustrative graphs were prepared by Hrishikesh Prakash Patel. The study benefited from financial support from various donors, including: Norway through the Norwegian Trust Fund for Private Sector and Infrastructure (NTF-PSI); the Program on Forests (PROFOR); and the Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development TFESSD). Working Paper 3: Transport xi EXECUTIVE SUMMARY THE CONGO BASIN SUFFERS FROM AN Transportation costs: High transportation costs in the Congo Basin can be mostly attributed to EXTREMELY POOR TRANSPORTATION operating costs, which result from the deteriorated INFRASTRUCTURE… infrastructure. Custom regulations, access restric- T ransportation in Congo Basin countries is poor in tions, and oligopolistic structures also inhibit the quality and expensive (see figure 1). emergence of new and more efficient operators. Countries become trapped in vicious cycles where Figure ES-1: Transport Service in Central Africa: Expensive and inefficient systems sustain low-quality services and Low Quality high transport prices. 12 Central Africa y = -1/7571x+12.366 10 …WHICH IMPEDES ECONOMIC GROWTH average transport price (in U.S. cents per tkm) R2 = 0.4826 East Africa 8 Poland 6 West Africa France Germany This poor transportation network hampers economic Southern Africa Spain United States growth in the Congo Basin by creating barriers to 4 exchanges and trade not only with international mar- 2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 kets but also internally on domestic markets. This situ- transport quality ation literally creates multiple land-locked economies (LPI) Source: Teravaninthorn and Raballand 2008. with limited to no exchanges among themselves. The agriculture sector is particularly affected, with a Roads: The paved road density in the Congo severe connection gap between producers from rural Basin is among the lowest in the world with only areas and consumers in growing urban centers. In the 25 kilometers (km) of paved road for each 1000 Democratic Republic of Congo, it is estimated that only km2 of arable land, compared with an average of 33 percent (7.6 out of 22.5 million hectares) of all 100 km in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). non-forested suitable arable land is less than 6 hours Railways: The railroad network is largely discon- from a major market; that proportion is as low as 16 nected. A legacy of the colonial era, it was mainly percent in the Central African Republic (1.3 out of 7.9 built to facilitate the extraction of natural resources million hectares). This distance makes it difficult to rely (mostly timber and minerals), not to support the on markets for either inputs or outputs, and generally movement of people and goods. pushes farmers to rely on self-subsistence agriculture. As a result, the growing markets within the region are Rivers: Despite a huge reserve of potentially navi- mostly fed by food commodity imports, which deterio- gable waterways (25,000 km), only three principal rate the national agriculture trade balance. routes are currently used, with all converging at the Matadi port. The network was mostly devel- The same applies to many other sectors, including oped during the colonial era and has dramatically extractive sectors (forests, mining) but also sectors that declined since the 1950s. rely on good mobility of people and goods. xii Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection NEW DEVELOPMENT PLANS infrastructure. The foreseeable development of road networks in the region is likely to be accompanied by The infrastructure gap in the Congo Basin is widely adverse impacts on forests. While the direct impact of acknowledged, and various entities are drafting plans road construction on rainforests can be quite limited, and strategies to fill this gap, including the Program of indirect and induced impacts could represent a major Infrastructure Development in Africa from the African threat by significantly changing economic dynamics in Union/NEPAD, the Consensual Road Network from newly accessible areas. Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (ECCAS), and the River Transportation plan from The Congo-BIOM model was used to compute the International Commission for the Congo-Oubangui- likely impact of all road and railways projects for which Sangha Basin (CICOS). financing has already been secured. It simulated changes in average travel time to the closest city along These plans define priority investments based on the with the changes in internal transportation costs (see development of corridors and growth poles. As such, figure 2). they are primarily designed to unlock the potential of extractive industries. While these corridors are certainly These changes are correlated to producer prices for of major importance, the challenge is to strike the agricultural output. The model shows that when agricul- appropriate balance with the development of a rural tural products can reach urban markets at a lower price road network that would unlock the Congo Basin’s because of lower transportation costs, consumers tend agricultural potential. to buy more domestically grown products (through import substitution). This, in turn, encourages producers to increase their production. Additionally, the price of such inputs as fertilizers tends to go down, increasing NEW PLANS—NEW THREATS ON FORESTS agricultural productivity. Typically, a new equilibrium Over the past decades, natural forests have been is reached with a larger volume of regionally grown protected, by and large, by the region’s poor transport agricultural products and lower prices compared to the Figure ES-2: Impact of Change in Transportation Infrastructure on Travel Time and Costs Transport time with existing Planned infrastructure Transport time with new infrastructure (circa 2000) (roads in red, rail in green) infrastructure Source: IIASA 2010. Working Paper 3: Transport xiii initial situation. The reduction of domestic transportation to avoid unplanned deforestation. Defined up costs also improves the international competitiveness front and in a participatory manner, these restric- of agricultural and forestry products. The model shows tions would get more backing from the various that if new transport infrastructure is indeed built, then stakeholders. the Congo Basin will export more sugarcane and palm Nationally and regionally: The corridor approach oil. Another associated effect would be the expansion shows that improving transportation services of illegal logging activities—with substantial impacts. (for example, freight management in harbors) or infrastructure (facilitating river or rail transporta- These developments that result from enhanced tion) may have a wider macroeconomic impact transportation infrastructure in the Congo Basin— at the regional level. Planning at the national and unless associated with accompanying measures— regional levels, through a corridor approach, could will all result in more pressures on forested lands, help identify adequate mitigation measures, such leading to substantial impacts on deforestation and/or as zoning reforms (establishing permanent forest forest degradation. areas), law enforcement (ensuring the respect of zoning decisions), land tenure clarification, and controlling the expansion of agriculture. RECOMMENDATION ƒƒFoster multi-modal transport networks. As countries plan for transport development, it is important that Extremely weak transport infrastructure in the Congo they consider the pros and cons of roads and alter- Basin constitutes a major barrier to economic devel- native transport modes, such as navigable water- opment. Countries, as well as regional entities, are ways and railroads, not only in terms of economic strongly committed to fill this infrastructure gap. returns but also in terms of environmental impacts. Induced impacts related to infrastructure can potentially For instance, with more than 12,000 km of naviga- create major pressures on forests. Future investments ble network, the Congo Basin could benefit from a should focus on the following approaches: potentially highly competitive waterway system. ƒƒImprove transportation planning at local, national, ƒƒProperly assess the impacts of transportation and regional levels. investments before they occur. Transportation development (be it new infrastructure or rehabili- Locally: Areas that are directly served by improved tation of existing assets) will reshape the economic transportation facilities will become more com- profile of the areas served by transportation and petitive for various economic activities such as increase pressure on forest resources. Currently, agricultural expansion, including palm oil planta- most environmental impact studies or safeguard tions. Local participation in transportation planning reviews fail to fully capture the long-term indirect will help ensure that economic opportunities are effects on deforestation. New assessment meth- maximized. Mitigation measures at the local level ods, based on economic prospective analysis, may include clarifying land tenure or integrating the could help prioritize infrastructure investments with transportation project into a broader local develop- low foreseen impacts on forests. ment plan. Such plans may include the protection of forest banks along roads, rivers, or railways Working Paper 3: Transport 1 INTRODUCTION T he Congo Basin is among the most poorly served areas in terms of transport infrastructure in the world, and it faces a challenging environment with deteriorated in the Congo Basin. The ratio of classified roads in good and fair conditions range from 25 per- cent in Republic of Congo to 68 percent in the Central dense tropical forests crisscrossed by numerous rivers African Republic,2 which is globally lower than the aver- that require construction of numerous bridges. Given age for low-income countries (LICs) and resource-rich such complexities, constructing transport infrastructure countries (see figure I-1). Other transportation assets as well as properly maintaining it is certainly a key chal- (railways and river system) are also limited: the railway lenge for the Congo Basin countries. Recent studies network is essentially a legacy of the colonial era and indicate that investment required per kilometer of new mainly used for mineral transportation, while the river roads is substantially higher than in other regions of system is basically only marginal. SSA and the same applies for maintenance. Overall poor transportation quality. In addition to Transport infrastructure assets in poor condition.1 globally poor transport infrastructure, the region’s The physical capital of transport infrastructure is transportation system is negatively impacted by poor regulations, inefficient institutions, powerful cartels, 1 All the data used in this section are based on the Africa Infrastructure and coercive transport associations. As a result, the Country Diagnostic (AICD) reports and database. The AICD, spearheaded by the World Bank, has provided a comprehensive assessment of the needs for physical infrastructure (as well as associated costs) in SSA. It has collected de- 2 The good performance in the Central African Republic hides the fact that, tailed economic and technical data on each of the main infrastructure sectors, in reality, most of the classified roads are paved roads, which only represent including energy, information and communication technologies, irrigation, a third of the total roads. Only 2 percent of the classified unpaved roads meet transport, and water and sanitation. the standard of good and fair conditions. Figure I-1: Condition of Road Transport Infrastructure Resource Rich countries Low-income countries Sub-Saharan Africa Central African Republic in good condition in fair condition Gabon in poor condition Congo, Dem. Rep. Republic of Congo Cameroon 10% 40% 60% 80% 90% 20% 30% 50% 100% 70% 0% Source: AICD database 2011. 2 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection transport system in the Congo Basin is characterized by countries, extraordinarily high rates of return in indus- poor quality of roads. This index3 has been calculated trializing countries, and moderate rates of return in for all SSA countries, normalized to 100 for the high- underdeveloped countries. In the Congo Basin, where est-quality road transport (in South Africa). both intra- and intercountry trade is still very low, trans- port infrastructure development is essential for private This poor transportation infrastructure is a critical sector development and integration of markets, without barrier to econoomic growth and poverty reduction which Congo Basin countries’ economy is unlikely to in the Congo Basin. This poor transportation infra- move away from the agrarian to the industrial or knowl- structure, along with inadequately developed logistics, edge-based economy. is adversely affecting economic growth by increasing transportation costs and transport delays as well as Ambitious plans to cope with the infrastructure gaps. limiting private sector development and market access. Infrastructure needs are significant in the Congo Basin Good transport infrastructure is crucial, as it underpins countries, particularly in terms of transport infrastruc- economic growth. Experience shows that increasing ture. Countries, as well as regional entities—African the stock of infrastructure by one percent can add up Union, ECCAS, and CEMAC—have high on their agen- to one percent to gross domestic product. It has been das the need to urgently fill the transport gap in order found to have “normal� rates of return in developed to unleash economic development potential: there is strong evidence of increased country budget allocation 3 The Road Transport Quality index is based on a formula combining the to transport sector (both investment and, to a lesser following parameters: Q = Road quality index for a country; P = Percent of extent, recurring costs) and major “grand plans� set up roads that are paved in a country; G = GDP per capita in a country (an index of capacity to maintain roads); and C = The World Bank’s Country Policy and by regional institutions. Institutional Capacity index for transparency, accountability, and corruption in country j (a proxy for delays and costs inflicted on truckers). Figure I-2: Road Transport Quality Index for SSA Countries 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 South Africa Botswana Zimbabwe Gambia Sudan Namibia Lesotho Zambia Benin Eritrea Guinea Mozambique Burkina Faso Malawi Gabon Djibouti Cameroon Mauritania Mali Kenya Angola Ethiopia Ivory Coast Republic of Congo Guinea Bissau Somalia Rwanda Niger Burundi Uganda Sierra Leone Liberia Equatorial Guinea Tanzania Central African Republic Congo, Dem. Rep. Chad Togo Ghana Nigeria Senegal Swaziland Source: AICD database 2011. Note: Congo Basin countries are highlighted in yellow.. Working Paper 3: Transport 3 CHAPTER 1 Transport Infrastructure: An Insufficient and Deteriorated Network STRUCTURAL WEAKNESSES OF Figure 1.1: Congo Basin: Road Network TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Road Transportation Network A sparse road network. The road density in the six Congo Basin countries is particularly low (between 17.3 km per 1,000 km2 in the Democratic Republic of Congo; 71.7 km per 1000 km2 in Cameroon), when compared to the SSA average of 149 km per 1,000 km2 (see figure 1.1-a). However, as shown by figure 1.2, the discrepancy between Congo Basin countries and other Sub- Saharan Africa countrieb is not that wide when density per habitant is compared (see figure 1.1-c). The low road density in the Congo Basin countries seems partly offset by the low population density in most of the countries (and partic- ularly in the rural areas). In Gabon, for example, even though the Road Infrastructure (Major roads: early to mid 2000s) population density is 5.620 people Type Primary and Secondary Other Major roads per km2, the population is highly concentrated in the few urban cen- ters (1,342 per km2), and, hence, road density per habitants is high. 4 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.2 Total Road Network Per Land Area (km/1000 km2) 149 145 160 140 120 100 71.7 80 59.1 49.5 46.9 60 40.5 40 17.3 20 0 n o . c n ca s s oo ng ep bli bo fri rie rie er o .R pu Ga A nt nt am fC em e an co u co u C co D nR ha r e h bli g o, ric a Sa m Ric ep u on f b- co ce lA Su in ur R C nt ra w- so Lo Re Ce Figure 1.3 Total Road Network Per Population (km/1000 persons) 9 8.3 8 7 5.7 6 4.7 5 4 3.4 3.2 3 2.3 1.8 2 0.61 1 0 Cameroon Republic of Congo, Dem. Gabon Central Sub-Saharan Low-income Resource Rich Congo Rep. African Africa countries countries Republic Source: AICD database, 2011. Majority of the roads are unpaved. Except for walking distance from an all-season road4—is limited. Cameroon and Gabon (with respectively 61 percent The rural accessibility index (RAI) in the Congo Basin and 57 percent of paved road), the other Congo Basin ranges from one-quarter to one-third of the rural countries have most of their roads unpaved, with an population, with the exception of the Central African extreme situation in the Central African Republic, where Republic, where it is more than half of the population less than a third of the roads is actually paved (see (see figure 1.5). This situation is particularly damaging figure 1.4). for the agriculture sector, where farmers are trapped in a subsistence system with limited and disrupted access Within the Congo Basin, the tertiary road network is to market for both product sales and input purchases. particularly deficient and the rural accessibility—as mea- sured by the percent of persons within a two-kilometer 4 This is commonly known as the rural accessibility index (RAI) and is estimated by using a geographic information system model of Africa’s road network and the geographical distribution of population. Working Paper 3: Transport 5 Figure 1.4: Ratio of Paved to Unpaved Roads 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% n go . lic n ca es es oo ep ub bo fri tri tri er Con .R p Ga A n n am of em Re an ou ou C lic o, D ca n ha r ec ichc b g ri Sa m pu on Af b- inc o rc eR Re C tra l Su w- n Lo s ou Ce Re Source: AICD database, 2011. Figure 1.5: Rural Accessibility 70 60 57.9 50 40 33.8 27.1 29.3 30 30 24.6 26.8 26 20 10 Cameroon Republic of Congo, Dem. Gabon Central Sub-Saharan Low-income Resource Rich Congo Rep. African Africa countries countries Republic Source: AICD database, 2011. Transport infrastructure has been poorly maintained. and from Bangui on the Ubangi (see figure 1.6). In most Congo Basin countries, the road network has The amount of goods transported by water (mainly fallen into an advanced state of disrepair due to poor agricultural products, wood, minerals, and fuel) is very upkeep over the past decades (in some countries, pro- modest, usually not reliable year-round. tracted civil war exacerbated the lack of maintenance). Until recently, the budget allocated to road infra- In principle, the waterway system could significantly structure has been excessively low, and the financial contribute to a multi-modal transport network serving mechanisms (fonds routiers) in place to support road the region, particularly given low associated transport maintenance have been suboptimal. costs of US$0.05 per ton-kilometer versus US$0.15 per ton-kilometer for road or rail freight in Central River Transportation Network Africa, albeit at significantly lower speeds. In practice, The Congo Basin has a navigable network of 12,000 however, the river transportation falls short of the role km, covering nearly four million km2 in nine countries. it could play in overall economic development of the The three principal routes—all of which converge on Congo Basin. In fact, since the 1950s, river transporta- the downstream terminus at Kinshasa on the Malebo tion has actually declined because of an outdated and Pool— run from Kisangani, from Ilebo on the Kasai, insufficient infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, 6 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 1.6: River Transportation Network in the Congo Basin Source: CICOS 2009. poor regulatory framework, and numerous nonphysical the Republic of Congo have found it imperative to barriers to movement. As a result, despite vast poten- jointly manage the resources of the Basin. In 1999, tial, the waterway system remains a marginal transport under the authority of the Executive Secretary of mode in the Congo Basin. the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (ECCAS), the four governments established the A new commission has been set up to foster develop- International Commission for the Congo-Oubangui- ment of river transportation. Recognizing this untapped Sangha Basin (Commission Internationale du Bassin potential, the governments of Cameroon, Central Congo-Oubangui-Sangha [CICOS]). The immediate African Republic, Democratic Republic of Congo, and objective of CICOS is to improve cooperation among its Working Paper 3: Transport 7 member states through improved communication via The network was centered on minerals—at the expense the Congo River and its tributaries; a longer-term objec- of passengers. The railway network is primarily used tive is to promote integrated water resources manage- for transporting minerals and petroleum products (see ment (IWRM) in order to enhance development and table 1.2). It is indeed a legacy of the colonial era, pri- alleviate poverty in the member states. marily put in place to move extracted natural resources rather than to move people or foster integrated devel- Railways Network opment of the country. This historic trend tends to per- Rail networks are underdeveloped. Railway lines sist: the Trans-Gabonais, which opened in 1987, was generally link ports with regional hinterlands, with very also built primarily to transport minerals. As a result, limited regional integration potential: the pattern of rail- only a very marginal portion of the total transport task way development in the Congo Basin countries is no covers passenger transport (see table 1.1), and recent different from the overall network in Africa, which has statistics show that the average passengers on railway historically not been designed to support inter-country transportation tend to decline globally. trade. The total railway network in the Congo Basin countries is 7,579 km, out of which more than a third Railway potential has not been fully tapped. While is not fully operational (see table 1.1). Rail networks many railway systems once carried a high share of their in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Cameroon countries’ traffic, their market shares have declined, are comparatively better developed than other Congo assets steadily deteriorated, and quality of service fallen Basin countries. over the years. Conflict has rendered some sections of Table 1.1: Rail Networks in Selected Congo Basin Countries. Transport task (million units) Proportion of total task (%) Passenger (number /year) Passenger-km Net tonne-km Passenger Freight 2000 2005 Cameroon CAMRAIL 308 1,119 22 78 1,266 1,053 Congo, Dem. Rep. CFMK 3 57 5 95 155 33   CFU N/A N/A N/A N/A       SNCC 70 444 14 86 1,307 359 Republic of Congo CFCO 167 264 39 61 546 628 Gabon SETRAG 87 2,208 4 96 237 218 Source: Bullock, 2009. Table 1.2: Freight Composition as Percent of Total Tonnage Cement & Construction Petroleum Ores & Agricultural Congo Basin Countries Company Timber Material Fertilizers Products Minerals Products Others Total Cameroon Camrail 37 2 4 26 — 19 12 100 Republic of Congo CFCO 41 2 1 12 1 2 41 100 Congo, Dem. Rep. CFMK 11 6 — 4 24 — 55 100 Congo, Dem. Rep. SNCC 2 3 — 8 85 — 2 100 Gabon SETRAG 30 — — — 60 — 10 100 Source: Bullock, 2009. 8 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection the network unusable. At the same time, the enhance- This situation negatively impacts the Central African ment of the road network has allowed road systems Republic—the only landlocked country in the Congo to capture higher-value general freight, thereby limiting Basin—in particular. Although the Central African rail traffic to bulk mineral and agricultural freight as Republic heavily relies on its regional corridors for the well as semi-bulk freight, such as fuel. The consistent efficient movement of goods and people, it does not decline in revenue has delayed the maintenance and have a single all-season road corridor to its coastal port replacement of deteriorating track and rolling stock. The gateways. Furthermore, its neighbors tend not to prior- railway network in the Congo Basin is largely underper- itize the maintenance of their portions of the corridors forming; it is expected to make only a minor contribu- that connect the Central African Republic to main gate- tion toward solving the transport problems confronting ways; the Douala-Bangui and Point Noire–Brazzaville– the region. Bangui corridors are still not fully paved. Cameroon’s segment of the Point Noire–Brazzaville–Bangui corridor (308 km) is entirely unpaved, as is 1,000 km on the Congolese side. Some sections of the Douala-Bangui A HIGHLY DISCONNECTED REGIONAL NETWORK corridor (about 250 km in Cameroon and 210 km in The regional corridors are deteriorated. Only half of the the Central African Republic) are just being upgraded major trade corridors in the Congo Basin countries are (as a part of the Economic and Monetary Community in good condition, leading to high costs for freight tariff of Central Africa [CEMAC] Transport Transit program). (by far the highest cost in the SSA). In addition, the trade density is low. The multi-modal potential has deteriorated. Traditionally, the regional transport industry in Central Table 1.3: Africa’s Key Transport Corridors for International Trade Roads in good Trade density Implicit speed Freight tariff Corridors Length (km) conditions (%) (US$ million/km) (km/hour) (US$/tonne-km) Western 2,050 72 8.2 6 0.08 Central 3,280 49 4.2 6.1 0.13 Eastern 2,845 82 5.7 8.1 0.07 Southern 5,000 100 27.9 11.6 0.05 Source: Bullock 2009. Note: Implicit speed includes time spent stationary at ports, border crossings, and other stops. Table 1.4: Road Quality and Traffic for Corridors Linking Bangui to Gateways Condition (%) Type (%) Corridors Good Fair Poor Unknown Paved Unpaved Unknown Douala to Bangui 53.9 23.4 22.7 0 68.6 31.4 0 Cameroon 29.6 35.7 34.7 0 52.1 47.9 0 Central African Republic 100 0 0 0 100 0 0 Douala to Ndjamena 18.9 24.5 56.6 0 67.3 32.7 0 Cameroon 18.9 24.5 56.6 0 67.3 32.7 0 Pointe Noire to Brazzaville to Bangui 29.1 18.9 45.2 7 68.8 25.2 6 Cameroon 55.6 38.8 0 6 0 100 0 Central African Republic 99.2 0 0 1 99.2 0.8 0 Republic of Congo 0 21.3 69.4 9 27.9 62.8 9.2 Source: Bullock 2009. Working Paper 3: Transport 9 Africa, particularly with respect to transit traffic, has Figure 1.7: Transport Service in Central Africa: Expensive and been shared between the road and road–rail corri- Low Quality dors originating from the gateway port of Douala and 12 the rail–river–road corridors between Pointe-Noire Central Africa y = -1/7571x+12.366 10 average transport price (in U.S. cents per tkm) (the Republic of Congo) or Matadi (the Democratic R2 = 0.4826 East Africa 8 Poland Republic of Congo) and Bangui in the Central African West Africa France Germany Republic (rail–river) up to N’Djaména in Chad. 6 Southern Africa Spain However, the rail–river corridor has lost all of its market 4 United States share of the Chadian trade since the early 1990s and 2 has become marginal for the Central African Republic 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 transport quality trade (except for oil products through Matadi). (LPI) Source: Teravainthorn and Raballand 2008. Although the situation is particularly critical for the Central African Republic, one can argue that the poor transportation connectivity tends to create landlocked ECCAS5 reports that the freight transportation cost from economy even within countries: this is particularly true Douala to N’Djaména is US$6,000 per ton and takes in the continent-like the Democratic Republic of Congo. 60 days, while it is only US$1,000 and takes 30 days Access to markets is challenging and leads rural from Shanghai to Douala. The rail freight rate in the populations to rely on a subsistence economic Democratic Republic of Congo is nearly three times the model, with limited options for trade outside of their rate charged elsewhere in southern Africa. immediate neighborhoods. Transportation price results from a combination of factors. There are several factors that influence trans- portation price (see figure 1.8). While vehicle operating TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM: HIGH PRICE, costs (VOCs)—which directly correlates to the quality LOW QUALITY of the road infrastructure and the types of vehicles— constitute a major portion of the transportation costs, Transportation prices in Africa are much higher than transportation prices can be strongly influenced by anywhere else. Transport services in Central African other factors, such as inefficient logistics, weak reg- countries are among the least-performing in the world, ulatory framework and institutions, etc. The actual with very high cost and low quality (as measured by Logistic Performance Index) (see figure 1.7). The 5 Agreed Steering Program for Transport in Central Africa (Plan Directeur Consensuel pour le Transport), ECCAS 2004. Figure 1.8: Factors Affecting Transportation Price Vehicle operating costs Transport costs Transport prices (VOCs) (TCs) Maintenance Toll and other Tires roadblock Profit Fuel payment markup Labor cost License & Capital cost insurance Source: Teravainthorn and Raballand 2008. 10 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection transportation price in a given countryis largely deter- kinds of rent-seeking activities, such as corruption, mined by the share of the aforementioned factors and protectionism, and cartels. The perverse incentive varies significantly from one country to another. structure created by the complex regulatory frame- work is the major barrier to entry and has dwarfed ƒƒPoor infrastructure condition maximizes main- competition. Lack of entry of new operators has tenance costs. Poor road conditions generate inhibited the emergence of a more efficient supply high-variable operating costs, as they increase fuel chain sought by both importers and exporters. consumption, maintenance costs, and shorten Moving a ton of freight along intraregional corridors the average lifetime of vehicles (and parts). In the in the Central African region costs twice as much Democratic Republic of Congo, for example, only 5 (between US$230 and $650) as in the southern Africa percent of the 58,000 km of national highways are region (between US$120 and $270), where distances paved. The cost imposed by poor road infrastruc- are significantly longer (Dominguez-Torres and Foster ture is one of the main reasons why freight costs 2011). In the early 1990s, the cost of a bag of cement are so high in the Democratic Republic of Congo. purchased in the provincial capital of Kisangani dou- Despite the existence of a relatively robust truck- bled by the time it reached the sub-regional capital ing industry—and the competition is fierce—freight of Buta some 250 km to the northwest along the costs continue to remain high due to poor road trans-African highway—and the roads have only deteri- infrastructure and dilapidated transport networks. orated since then. The landlocked status amplifies the ƒƒUnderperforming logistics. Congo Basin countries burden of transportation costs. Expensive road trans- are among the most logistics-unfriendly countries port costs along the Bangui-Douala corridor account for when it comes to transportation services. Poorly the bulk of the cost of importing to the Central African functioning ports and slow customs clearance, in Republic. Inland transport costs, at about US$3,500 particular, are significant constraints in Cameroon to $4,500 per container, account for more than 65 and the Democratic Republic of Congo. The cost of percent of the total cost of importing. transporting a container between Douala and Ban- gui is 4.94 US$/km, while it is only 1.38 US$/km The structure of the prices for transport in the Congo from Maputo to Johannesburg. The current system Basin shows that even if improvements of roads can also favors the use of large fleets, which consist be expected to reduce both the vehicle operating mostly of poorly maintained old trucks. and maintenance costs, more needs to be done to ƒƒOverregulated transport market. Regulatory frame- significantly and lastly reduce the transportation cost, works in the Congo Basin countries are particularly specifically through easing of regulations and control of complex. Such complexity has created space for all transport cartels. Working Paper 3: Transport 11 CHAPTER 2 Poor Transport Infrastructure Has “Protected� the Forests TYPOLOGY OF IMPACTS OF TRANSPORT ƒƒPopulation density. Often, as population grows, demand for agricultural land and product increases. INFRASTRUCTURE ON FORESTS Such increases could lead to expansion of agri- Many studies have shown a positive correlation cultural fields into areas previously occupied by between road infrastructure development and defor- forests. The rate of deforestation could grow sig- estation.6 Roads are one of the most robust predictors nificantly if population growth is coupled with the of tropical deforestation: roads accelerate forest frag- demand for agriculture land and fuel. mentation and reduce forest regrowth. The develop- ƒƒTransport infrastructure opens access to forest ment of transportation infrastructure (namely, roads frontiers, which are often colonized by the most and railways) has both direct and indirect impacts on vulnerable people in search for subsistence land. forests. Direct impacts are usually limited and only In Central Africa, major causes of deforestation and encompass a strip of a few meters on each side of forest degradation are directly linked to the rural the transport line (that is, the security lane that needs population density near the forest. The frequency to be deforested). However, the overall long-term of deforestation rapidly decreases with the distance impacts in terms of deforestation could be of much from roads. In Brazilian Amazon, a 30 percent of greater magnitude and could extend over a long period forest loss was found within 10 km of roads, a 20 of time, especially if forest governance is weak, local percent loss between 11 and 25 km, and a 15 per- law enforcement is poor, and livelihood opportunities cent loss from 26 to 50 km (Laurance et al. 2001). of adjacent communities are limited. In addition, road Less research work has been done on this issue in construction/improvement causes forest degradation the Congo Basin: a modeling work conducted in because it increases the accessibility of remote areas, southern Cameroon (Mertens and Lambin 1997) allowing logging and hunting. shows that 80 percent of total deforestation occurs within a distance of less than 2 kilometers of roads Although it is widely recognized that transport infra- and that beyond a distance of 7.5 kilometers, defor- structure undoubtedly tends to increase pressure on estation ceases. forests and leads to deforestation and forest degrada- ƒƒType of infrastructure. Indirect impacts are usually tion, the magnitude and trend of this phenomenon of greater magnitude along a road than along vary with parameters, such as type of infrastructure, a railway. Similarly, studies in the Amazon have population density, and type of forest ecosystems. In shown that impacts along paved roads, in terms of addition, governance issues can also play a part. deforestation, are greater: 70 percent of deforesta- 6 Some of the many studies on the topic include Cropper, Puri, and Griffiths tion occurs within 50 km of paved roads and, at 2001; Chomitz et al. 2007; Fearnside 2008; Kaimowitz and Angelsen 1998; most, 7 percent along unpaved roads (IPAM 2000). Pfaff et al. 2007; Soares-Filho et al. 2005; and Zhang et al. 2005. 12 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection ƒƒMedium/long-term impacts. Direct immediate ƒƒGovernance. Evidence from Belize shows that impacts of transport infrastructure are usually deforestation trends can be managed by integrated limited to a few-meter-strip on each side of the infrastructure planning and local development; transport line. Box 2.1 illustrates the situation however, in areas with weak forest governance and in Latin American and highlights the temporal poor law enforcement, indirect impacts are usually sequence: deforestation extends over a long period out of control and new transport infrastructure of time and full impacts can only be measured on tends to be accompanied with an explosion of ille- a medium/long-term basis. gal activities (illegal logging, mining…) that cause major damage to forests. Box 2.1: Temporal Sequence of Forest Loss in Latin American Countries The figures below illustrate the deforestation dynamics around roads in Brazil (Acre), Peru (Madre de Dios), and Bolivia (Pando) over a 15-year period following the creation of a new road. In all cases, clearing started in the areas adjacent to the roads, with the most rapid rate of clearing occurring within the first 10 km from the road. Beyond this initial distance, the patterns and rates vary quite significantly from one case to another. The 10 km pattern is especially true for Acre and Madre de Dios, where road paving is relatively advanced. Unlike in Acre and Madre de Dios, in Pando, forests along the dirt roads are beginning to be cleared. The area Acre, Brazil cleared, however, is quite minor, and distance from the road appears to be somewhat less significant. Findings suggest that paved roads increase connec- tivity and offer greater accessibility, facilitating greater clearing. Flows of people and goods will accelerate across the landscape, increasing the likelihood of dramatic future changes in forest cover. Madre de Dios, Peru Pando, Bolivia Source: Southworth et al. 2011. Working Paper 3: Transport 13 The mobility of goods and people is challenged by a Box 2.2: Connectivity between Provincial Capitals highly disconnected transport network in the Congo Basin. As illustrated in box 2.2, in the Democratic In the case of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the provincial capitals of the countries are not Republic of Congo only one provincial capital is con- connected by roads; most of them are connected nected to Kinshasa (the country capital) via roads; the to the country capital, Kinshasa, by a deficient air others rely only on river and air transport. This situation transport system. Lack of connectivity is a main is highly detrimental to trade, as the quality of infra- bottleneck for economic development, as it has structure is indeed an important determinant of trade resulted in the isolation of provinces and has performance (Nordås and Piermartini 2004). Recent hindered the smooth exchange of goods and studies show that trade is highly sensitive to transport commodities. Even the countries with sea access prices (a 10-percent drop in transport prices increases are not in a position to achieve greater mobility of goods and people because of a highly discon- trade by 25 percent), and in many countries, high nected transport network. Countries with access transportation prices constitute a higher barrier to trade to ports, too, have yet to reap the benefits of than do import tariffs and trade restrictions. In addition, transport efficiency; they are in the same situation poor transport infrastructure increases time-related as their landlocked counterparts. uncertainty and risks, and studies show that the travel delay caused by poor road infrastructure is negatively Provincial capital Road River Air correlated with the transport price. Hummels et al. Matadi √ (2007) calculate tariff equivalent costs of time delays. Mbandaka √ They show that avoiding a day of delay would be worth Kisangani √ √ 2 percent of the value of a shipment of road vehicle. Bandundu √ The delays caused by poor transport infrastructure Kananga √ impact the trade volume as well. Djankov, Freund, Mbuji-Mayi √ and Pham (2006) estimate the trade impediment Lubumbashi √ of an additional day in transit. Findings show that an Kindu √ additional day in transit reduces trade volume by more Goma √ than 1 percent. Bukavu √ Transport Options between Kinshasa and the Deficient networks have been a major bottleneck for Provincial Capitals a transition from subsistence agriculture to a more market-oriented model. Poor infrastructure has made any transition to a more intensive form of forest-based POOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE HAS farming virtually impossible. Feeder roads in the humid forest are difficult to maintain under wet conditions and “PRESERVED� FORESTS are in many areas inaccessible during the rainy season. Lack of Connectivity: Major Obstacle to In the Democratic Republic of Congo, even though Economic Development river transport proves to be one of the most efficient means of transport, its operation is highly constrained There is considerable economic research to show that because of the fluctuating water level: it only works inadequate infrastructure impedes economic growth. intermittently, when water levels are appropriate for Evidence (Aschauer 1989) shows a statistical linkage operation. Furthermore, limited storage and processing between transport infrastructure stock and economic capacities prevent subsistence farmers from waiting growth. In China, for instance, the transport network for the dry season to access markets and sell their growth has been one of the major engines of eco- products at a higher price. As a result, lack of road infra- nomic growth (Zhang 2009). It influences economic structure, associated with poor storage capacities, has structure and performance by opening up markets. 14 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection so far constricted farmers’ profitability, as it increases amount of non-forested suitable land (about 94 million the transaction costs and cuts off farmers’ participation hectares [ha]) when the criterion on access to market in the broader economy. It has also dwarfed compe- is taken into account. The situation is even worse in the tition, growth, and adversely affected both profitability Congo Basin countries. In the Democratic Republic of and food security of subsistence farmers. Congo, it is estimated that only 33 percent (7.6 out of 22.5 million ha) of the non-forested suitable land is at Food security becomes an issue when people are less than six hours from a major market; that pro- forced to depend entirely on local production. Even a portion is as low as 16 percent in the Central African relatively unsatisfactory growing season could jeopar- Republic (1.3 out of 7.9 million ha). dize food security, as people will have no way to benefit from surpluses in other parts of the country. Lack of reli- Improved infrastructure is a prerequisite for boosting able road infrastructure increases the vulnerabilities of minerals exploitation. Poor infrastructure has generally farmers to climatic shocks but could also protect them been a major obstacle in the development of mining from other external shocks (for example, price volatility). operations in the Congo Basin; however, with the high demand for minerals as well as the high prices, Suitable lands are mostly inaccessible. A large portion incentives to develop new mineral deposits with a new of potentially suitable land in the Congo Basin tends generation of deals increase. In fact, over the past few not to be converted into production, as the net profits years, a trend has grown toward investors offering to are likely to be negative once transport costs are build associated infrastructures, such as roads, railways, considered. A recent study7 has identified potentially power plants (including large dams), ports. In Gabon, suitable and accessible land. The possibly suitable land the Belinga iron ore reserves have been put under was classified based on the travel time to the next contract for development by China National Machinery significant market, defined as a city of at least 50,000 and Equipment Import and Export Corporation, and inhabitants, with a cutoff of six hours to market. As this contract includes building the related infrastructure. shown in the table below, Latin America clearly has a In Cameroon, an Australian company (Sundance) has great advantage infrastructure-wise, with more than been allotted exploration rights that would—should the 75 percent of its non-forested suitable land at less than project be approved—develop an iron-ore mine and six hours from a market town. Consequently, despite the related infrastructure, which also falls within the Latin America having about 40 percent less land avail- dense tropical forests that cover the southern por- able than does SSA, the regions have roughly the same tion of the country. These new deals largely take the burden off the host countries, which generally lack the 7 Deininger et al. 2011, based on IIASA 2010. Table 2.1: Potential Supply of Non-cultivated Non-forested Low-Population-Density (< 25 persons/km2) Land, Applying an Access to Market Criterion (million ha)   Total Area Area < 6 hours to market % Area < 6 hours to market Sub-Saharan Africa 201.5 94.9 47.1% Latin America and Caribbean 123.3 94 76.2% Eastern Europe and Central Asia 52.4 43.7 83.4% East and South Asia 14.3 3.3 23.1% Middle East and North Africa 3 2.6 86.7% Rest of world 51 24.6 48.2% Total 445.6 263.1 59.0% Source: Deininger et al. 2011, based on IIASA 2010. Working Paper 3: Transport 15 finances to cover such investment needs. Such “new less than one-fifth of the total forest area lost every deals� would circumvent one of the major weaknesses year on the continent (see table 2.2 and figure 2.1). of the Congo Basin countries for the development of the mining operations. Tropical forests have mainly been “passively� protected. In the six Congo Basin countries, the overall current Deforestation Rates in the Congo Basin Are deforestation and forest degradation rates are very Among the Lowest moderate. In Central Africa, annual net deforestation Deforestation rates in Congo Basin are among the low- and degradation were respectively 0.09 percent and est, even in Africa. In the Congo Basin, tropical forests 0.05 percent between 1990 and 2000 (figure 2.2). have been “passively� protected because some of the Poor transportation systems and political instability were major drivers of deforestation—agricultural expansion, some of the major barriers to economic development infrastructure, and mining development—remained dor- in the subregion. Farmers were trapped into subsistence mant over recent decades for such reasons as political agriculture with low inputs. and the enormous extractive instability, protracted insurgency, etc. Figures indicate resources could not be exploited. As a consequence, that Central Africa’s rates are not only well below those over the past decades, Congo Basin forests have been of the major negative contributors to world total forest largely protected and are considered to be among the area but are also below the deforestation rates experi- best preserved tropical forests in the world. However, enced by most other African regions. Area-wise, Central deforestation in the Congo Basin has accelerated in Africa loses about 40 percent less forest each year than recent years. Deforestation and forest degradation have does Southern Africa, 25 percent less than West Africa, been largely associated with expansion of subsistence and 15 percent less than East Africa, and represents activities (that is, agriculture and energy) and are con- centrated around densely populated areas. Figure 2.1: Changes in Forest Area in Main Regions in Africa on 1990–2010 period 750 Note: For the purpose of this analysis, 750 600 Central Africa includes Burundi, Cameroon, the Central 600 450 African Republic, Chad, the Democratic Republic of Congo, 450 Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, 300 Saint Helena, Ascension and Tristan da Cunha, São Tomè 300 150 -0.92 -1.01 and Príncipe; 150 -0.72 -0.05 0 East Africa: Comoros, Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, 0 1990 2000 2010 Madagascar, Mauritius, Mayotte, Réunion, Seychelles, 1990 2000 2010 Somalia, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania; North North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Africa 750 Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Western Sahara; 600 Southern Africa: Angola, Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, West Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia, 450 Africa Zimbabwe; East 300 Central Africa West Africa: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cape Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, 150 -1.1 -1.12 Africa Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, 0 Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Togo 1990 2000 2010 Source: authors, from FAO (2011) South 750 Africa 600 450 -0.25 -0.26 750 300 600 150 450 0 -0.5 -0.53 300 1990 2000 2010 150 0 1990 2000 2010 16 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Table 2.2: Changes in Forest Area in Africa and in the Main Negative Contributors to World Total Forest Area, 1990–2010 Subregion Forest area (thousand ha) Annual change (thousand ha) Annual change rate (%) 1990 2000 2010 1990–2000 2000–2010 1990–2000 2000–2010 Central Africa 268,214 261,455 254,854 -676 -660 -0.25 -0.26 East Africa 88,865 81,027 73,197 -784 -783 -0.92 -1.01 North Africa 85,123 79,224 78,814 -590 -41 -0.72 -0.05 Southern Africa 215,447 204,879 194,320 -1,057 -1,056 -0.50 -0.53 West Africa 91,589 81,979 73,234 -961 -875 -1.10 -1.12 Total Africa 749,238 708,564 674,419 -4,067 -3,414 -0.56 -0.49 Southeast Asia 247,260 223,045 214,064 -2,422 -898 -1.03 -0.41 Oceania 198,744 198,381 191,384 -36 -700 -0.02 -0.36 Central America 96,008 88,731 84,301 -728 -443 -0.79 -0.51 South America 946,454 904,322 864,351 -4,213 -3,997 -0.45 -0.45 World 4,168,399 4,085,063 4,032,905 -8,334 -5,216 -0.20 -0.13 Source: FAO 2011. Figure 2.2: Average Annual Deforestation and Forest Degradation Rates, 1990–2000 and 2000–2005 0.18 0.17 0.16 0.14 0.12 0.1 0.09 0.09 1990–2000 0.08 2000–2005 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.02 0 Net deforestation Net degradation Source: De Wasseige et al. 2012. Working Paper 3: Transport 17 CHAPTER 3 Future Developments of Transportation: A Threat for the Congo Basin Forests? Underachievement in infrastructure is severe in the 77 percent during the same period. These resources, Congo Basin. The urgent need to “transform Africa’s along with external ones, have been used to support infrastructure� critically applies to the Congo Basin flagship investments. countries, which rank among those with the lowest level of adequate infrastructure. Ambitious plans are Significant progress has also been made to mobilize being prepared at the regional and continental levels external resources to support the reconstruction of the while individual countries also tend to give higher prior- road network. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, for ity to both infrastructure construction and rehabilitation. instance, the reconstruction of the road network has been clearly set as a top priority immediately after the end of the armed conflict. The Democratic Republic of Congo has secured major financial commitments from TRANSPORTATION ENHANCEMENT: AT THE TOP multilateral and bilateral donors as well as China. These OF THE POLITICAL AGENDA funds cover many of the country’s major road corridors: the route between Matadi (the port) and Kinshasa A Priority for Congo Basin Countries was recently rebuilt, and there are plans underway to Significant progress is being made by countries to reconstruct and resurface the major east–west and rehabilitate their road infrastructure. Over the past few north–south corridors. China is currently financing a years, most Congo Basin countries have set ambi- trans-Congo highway, providing access to rich min- tious goals in terms of infrastructure and particularly eral and timber resources. Consequently, recent road transportation infrastructure to drive economic growth quality indicators suggest that the state of the country’s and development. In most cases, these goals have limited paved network (fewer than 3,000 km) has translated into major increases in their national budget improved. Nevertheless, the unpaved roads—which at allocations to the transport sector: a large portion is tar- more than 30,000 km still represent the vast majority geted to investments, as the top priority really focuses of the network—are in serious disrepair. on construction and rehabilitation of roads and—to a lesser extent—railways. In the Republic of Congo, where Maintenance remains a challenge. A key issue going the transportation system is by far the most deterio- forward will be not only to reconstruct the road net- rated, the public financing to the transport sector has work but also to create a sustainable basis for funding increased by 31.5 percent between 2006 and 2010, its maintenance. The climatic and ecological conditions with an allocation of 19.6 percent of public resources. are particularly severe in the Congo Basin, contributing This effort has been particularly targeted to the road to rapid alteration of the infrastructure capital. Thus, subsector, whose budgetary allocation has increased by the road network requires substantial financing for 18 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection maintenance. Given the vast geographical expanse of regional level (under the leadership of the regional the network, the Democratic Republic of Congo would economic entities—ECCAS and CEMAC) (see annex1 need to spend almost US$400 million a year just to and box 3.1). keep its transport infrastructure in usable condition, a figure that represents more than 5 percent of the Expansion of railways network. There have been many country’s GDP. Securing resources for maintenance proposals, some dating back a century, to create new clearly represents a huge challenge, as does spend- routes for landlocked countries and to integrate the ing those funds effectively. In many countries, road isolated networks. The most ambitious proposal came funds have been created to respond to this challenge. in 1976, when the Union of African Railways (UAR) Particular attention should be given to these road funds prepared a master plan for a pan-African rail network so that they can ensure an efficient and effective use that included 18 projects requiring 26,000 km of of resources collected to cover appropriate road main- new construction, many of which had been proposed tenance services. for several decades. This plan—designed to create a grid to support intra-African trade development and Many Regional and Continent-wide Programs regional economic integration—was approved by the The transportation network is currently highly frag- Organization of African Unity (OAU) in 1979, but few, if mented. A regional approach has the potential to any, of the proposed links have left the drawing board. reduce the cost of infrastructure development, as well The UAR is now concentrating on a 2001 revised mas- as to improve the overall functioning of the system and ter plan containing a subset of 10 corridors. In 2005, to optimize the potentialities of the transport corridors the UAR further simplified this plan with its adoption of within and outside the region. three major transcontinental routes: Libya-Niger-Chad- Central African Republic-Republic of Congo-Democratic Road corridors. Taking into account the crucial chal- Republic of Congo-Angola-Namibia (6,500 km), lenge, numerous plans and programs are underway Senegal-Mali-Chad-Djibouti (7,800 km), and Kenya- to transform transportation infrastructure in the Congo Tanzania-Uganda-Rwanda-Burundi-Democratic Republic Basin, both at the continent level (under the auspices of Congo with possible extensions to Ethiopia and of the African Union and NEPAD) and at the Sudan (5,600 km) (Bullock 2009). Box 3.1: The Consensual Road Network for Central Africa The region needed a reference network to establish its infrastructure investment program. Therefore, a long process has been followed during many years, as shown by the following milestones: ƒƒ In 1988, the ECCAS Head of State Conference created officially the “community road axis.�  ƒƒ In 2000, the ECCAS Head of State Conference adopted a priority network for Regional integration (n° 9/00/ CEMAC-067-CM-04 dated July 20, 2000) ƒƒ In 2005, states from ECCAS decided to codify the development corridors. ƒƒ In June 2007, the ECCAS Head of State Conference approved the final version of the prioritized projects. ƒƒ In June 2011, a donor roundtable was held to agree on the founding of the plan. The Consensual Road Network for Central Africa comes from the shared will to have, at the regional level, a common and agreed basis for transportation improvements. In March 2006, transportation experts validated the Consensual Road Network for Central Africa and its codification, the Development Corridors and, then, the projects in the first, second, and third priorities. The Consensual Road Network for Central Africa includes the inter-states liaisons and the inter-connection network. Working Paper 3: Transport 19 River transportation. In line with the African Union’s decision to promote the creation or reinforcement Box 3.2: Brief Presentation of the GLOBIOM of intergovernmental agencies in order to improve GLOBIOM is designed for the analysis of cooperation between the states, CICOS was created land use changes around the world.1 The on November 6, 1999, to help manage the water biophysical processes modeled (agricultural and resources in the Congo–Oubangui–Sanga Basins and forest production) rely on a spatially explicit data to facilitate the river transportation on those waterways. set which includes soil, climate/weather, topog- With the support of African Development Bank and raphy, land-cover/use,2 and crop management African Water Facility, CICOS launched an action plan factors. Harvesting potentials in cropland are com- puted with the EPIC model (Williams 1995), which for 2009–2010 in order to prepare a Strategic Action determines crop yields and input requirements Plan for developing river transportation. CICOS aims to based on relationships between soil types, climate, provide the region with the institutional tools and the hydrology, etc. Timber-sustainable harvesting planning arrangements to improve and develop river potential in managed forests is computed from transportation in the Congo Basin. the G4M model’s forest-growth equations. The GLOBIOM draws on extensive databases for initial calibration of the model in the base year, technical POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF TRANSPORTATION parameters, and future projections. In order to reproduce the observed quantities for the refer- INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT ON ence year (2000), the GLOBIOM is calibrated by FOREST COVER employing the Positive Mathematical Programming (Howitt 1995), which consists of using the Poor transportation infrastructure has so far “protected� duals on the calibration constraints to adjust the the tropical forests in the Congo Basin; however, it production cost. This process is supposed to seems clear that with the ongoing transport infrastruc- correct the model’s problems of specification and ture development and upkeep, the region is expected the omission of other unobservable constraints to see an upswing in deforestation. The partial equilib- that face production. It is used to calibrate the rium model GLOBIOM (IIASA 2010) has been used to crop, sawn-wood, wood-pulp, and animal calories production. assess the potential impacts of transportation develop- ments based on the planned infrastructure for which GLOBIOM is a global simulation model funding has already been secured. that divides the world into 28 regions. One such region considered under the GLOBIOM is A Modeling Approach: CongoBIOM the Congo Basin (the six highly forested countries covered by the study). It is important to look at A modeling approach has been elaborated to inves- the rest of the world when studying land-use tigate the effect of the predicted main future drivers change in a region because local shocks affect of deforestation in the Congo Basin, both internal and international markets and vice versa. Moreover, external, on land-use change and on resulting green- there are important leakage effects. Bilateral trade house gas (GHG) emissions by 2030. In fact, the flows are endogenously computed between each pair of regions, depending on the domestic high-forest / low deforestation (HFLD) profile of the production costs and the trading costs (tariff and Basin countries justified the use of a prospective anal- transportation costs). ysis to forecast deforestation, as historical trends were considered inadequate to properly capture the future 1 Concept and structure of GLOBIOM are similar to the U.S. Agricultural Sector and Mitigation of Greenhouse Gas model. nature and magnitude of the drivers of deforestation. 2 The land-cover data for 2000 are taken from the GLC2000 Accordingly, a macroeconomic approach, based on the Global Biomass Optimization model (GLOBIOM) was taken in order to sufficiently account for global parame- ters (see box 3.2 and Annex 2). 20 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection GLOBIOM is a partial equilibrium model, which is an level of emissions from deforestation in the Congo economic model that incorporates only some sectors Basin without further measures to prevent or limit of the economy. Like all models, GLOBIOM simplifies deforestation. Complementary scenarios were tested a complex reality by highlighting some variables and in addition to the baseline with different assumptions causal relations that explain land-use change based on about global meat and biofuel demand, internal trans- a set of assumptions about agents’ behavior and market portation costs, and crop yield growth. The selection of functioning. GLOBIOM only includes the main sectors the policy shocks was based on a literature review and involved in land use (that is, agriculture, forestry, and was validated during two regional workshops with local bioenergy). It is an optimization model that searches for experts. Policy shocks were chosen to describe impacts the highest possible levels of production and consump- from both internal and external drivers: external (S1): tion, given the resource, technological, and political increase in international demand for meat; (S2): constraints in the economy (McCarl and Spreen 1980). increase in international demand for biofuel factors of The demand in the GLOBIOM is exogenously driven— deforestation and internal; (S3): improved transport that is, some projections computed by other teams of infrastructure; (S4): decrease in fuelwood consump- experts on population growth, GDP growth, bioenergy tion; and (S5): improved agricultural technologies. use, and structure of food consumption are used to The objectives of the modeling exercise were: (1) to define the consumption starting point in each period in highlight the mechanisms through which deforestation each region. Then, the optimization procedure ensures could occur in the Basin (driven by both internal and that the spatial production allocation minimizes the external drivers); and (2) to test the sensitivity of defor- resources, technology, processing, and trade costs. Final ested area and GHG emissions from deforestation with equilibrium quantities result from an iterative proce- respect to different drivers. Table 3.1 describes the dure between supply and demand, where prices finally different scenarios used as well as the main results. converge to a unique market price. Box 3.2 provides a detailed description of the GLOBIOM. The quantitative outputs of the model presented in Table 3.1 should be taken with extreme caution and Based on an adaptation of GLOBIOM, the CongoBIOM used, rather, as a comparative basis between the has been elaborated. The Congo Basin region was different scenarios. Validation of these input data would specifically created within the GLOBIOM, and additional require additional statistics at a finer resolution level detail and resolution for the Basin countries were and would ideally be available for several years. included. Land-based activities and land-use changes have been modeled at the simulation-unit level, which Hypothesis under the “Improved Transport varies in size between 10 x 10 km and 50 x 50 km. Infrastructure� Scenario Internal transportation costs have been computed The scenario S3: “Improved Transport Infrastructure� based on the existing and planned infrastructure is based on the assumption that with the return of network; protected areas and forest concessions have political stability and new economic potentialities (i.e. been delineated, and available national statistics have agriculture, mining), both the new transport infrastruc- been collected to inform the model (IIASA 2011; ture development and the repair of existing infrastruc- Mosnier et al. 2012).The calibration of the CongoBIOM ture will increase by many fold. The model includes was done on the data collected in the various six coun- the projects for which the funding is certain (see list tries by a team of international and national experts. in annex 1). This planned transport infrastructure information provided by the ministries for Cameroon, The CongoBIOM was used to assess the impacts of the Central African Republic, and Gabon, and by the a series of “policy shocks� identified by Congo Basin World Bank for the Democratic Republic of Congo and country representatives. The methodological approach Republic of Congo (AICD) was used in the model to was first to investigate what could be the reference forecast the impact. Working Paper 3: Transport 21 Table 3.1: Policy Shocks Tested with CongoBIOM and Main Results Scenarios Description   Main Results Baseline Business as usual using standard projections of main Deforestation rate close to the historical rate of model drivers. deforestation over 2020 to 2030 (0.4 Mha per year). Productivity gains avoid about 7 Mha of cropland expansion (the equivalent of the projected cropland expansion). S1: Meat Business as usual with a higher global meat demand. In The Congo Basin countries remain marginal in the scenario, the demand of animal calories increase by meat production. 15 percent compared to FAO projection in 2030. The average deforested area over the 2020–2030 period still increases by 20 percent in the Congo compared to the base Basin. As the global price for meat and animal food increases, food and feed imports are reduced and local production increases—leading to deforestation. S2: Biofuels Business as usual with a higher global first-generation The Congo Basin countries remain marginal in global biofuel demand. The scenario on the biofuel consists biofuels feedstock production. to double the demand for biofuels of first generation The average deforested area over the 2020–2030 compared to the initial projection of the POLES model period still increases by 36 percent in the Congo Basin in 2030. compared to the base. As the global price for oil palm and agriculture product increases, food imports are reduced and local production of oil palm and food increases— leading to deforestation. S3: Infrastructures Business as usual with planned transportation Calories intake per capita increases by 3 percent infrastructures included. Return of political stability, good compared to the base scenario. governance, and new projects induced a multiplication of The Congo Basin improves its agricultural trade projects to repair existing transport systems and contribute balance with an increase in exports and a reduction in to a new transportation. The model has included all the food imports. projects for which the funding is certain. Total deforested area becomes three times as large (+234 percent) and emissions from deforestation escalate to more than four times as large. S4: Fuelwood Business as usual with a decrease in fuelwood Within the 0.4 Mha deforested per year on the baseline, consumption per inhabitant from 1 m3 to 0.8 m3 per year. fuelwood counts for 30 percent. A 20 percent decrease in fuelwood consumption induces therefore a 6 percent decrease in total deforestation compared with the business-as-usual scenario. S5: Technological change Business as usual with increased crop productivity. The Calories intake per capita increases by 30 percent and —Increase in agriculture model assumes that this increase is proportional across imports are reduced. productivity all management systems and does not involve higher Increase in emissions from deforestation by 51 percent producing costs for farmers (modeling, for example, over the 2020–2030 period because consumption agricultural mechanization or subsidies of better seeds). increases faster than that of crop productivity. The yields are doubled for food crops and increased by 25 percent for cash crops. Source : IIASA 2011. As illustrated in the section on “Impacts of transport on in population, dynamics of forest access and resource Forests� under chapter 2, the preservation of the forest extraction will change. Therefore, population growth cover along transport axes largely depends on pop- parameters were integrated in the Congo-BIOM model. ulation density. It is critical to include the distribution In the Congo Basin, population is expected to double of the population as well as the prospects for growth between 2000 and 2030, with an average annual during the simulation period because with the increase growth rate of 3.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 22 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 3.1: Population Density Simulation in 2000 and 2030 (projected) Population density (persons/km2 ) in 2000 Population density (persons/km2 ) in 2030 Source: IIASA 2011. and 2.2 percent between 2020 and 2030—leading to Republic of Congo border will continue to register high a total population of 170 million inhabitants by 2030. population densities. Urbanization trends have also been computerized. As Impacts of Transportation Development on in other developing regions, the urbanization process is Forest Cover: Results from CongoBIOM expected to intensify in the Congo Basin. From United While acknowledging the limitation of any model- Nations estimates (2009), the number of cities in ing exercise,8 one can, however, recognize that the the Basin with more than 1 million inhabitants should CongoBIOM can be helpful to investigate, ex ante, how jump from four in 2000 to eight in 2025, with 15 changes in transport structure can impact forest cover million inhabitants in the city of Kinshasa alone. North under different scenarios. Under this specific activity, and Southwest Cameroon and the eastern Democratic 8 “All models are wrong—but some are useful� (George P. E. Box). Figure 3.2: Results of the Shocks in Terms of Areas Annually Deforested under the Different Scenarios, 2010–2030 1.31 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.59 0.53 0.47 0.60 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.20 0.00 Baseline S1: Increase in meat S2: Increase in biofuel S3: Improved transport S4: Decrease in S5: Technological demand demand infrastructure woodfuel consumption changes Source: IIASA 2011. Working Paper 3: Transport 23 the model was been elaborated and used to help deci- Improved transportation infrastructure lowers trans- sion makers better understand the causal chain that portation costs. The CongoBIOM computerizes current leads to deforestation: it used quantified method to transportation costs throughout the Congo Basin into a help increase qualitative understanding. The quantified spatially explicit data set. The internal transportation cost results of the model are, however, presented in the has been estimated on the basis of the average time below paragraphs. These quantified results should be needed to go from each simulation unit to the closest used with great caution based on the multiple limita- city above 300,000 people in 2000 (including cities in tion of the modeling exercise. neighboring countries) based on the existing transporta- tion network of roads, railways, and navigable rivers, the According to the CongoBIOM, the impact of the sce- elevation, the slope, the boundaries, and the land cover nario “Improved Transport Infrastructure,� as planned (see Annex 2 on modeling). On average, considering under the various plans and programs, is foreseen the infrastructure existing in 2000, internal transporta- to be, by far, the most damaging to forest cover. The tion costs are the lowest in Cameroon and the highest model shows that the total deforested area is three in the Democratic Republic of Congo, where they can times higher than in the business-as-usual. Among lead to a doubling of initial production costs. the multiple scenarios explored, the “Transportation Scenario� emerged as the one causing the highest rate The “Improved Transportation� scenario uses the of deforestation (see figure 3.2). same methodology and parameters, and computer- izes the internal costs with planned infrastructure for However, as described in the previous section on the 2020–2030 simulation period. The transportation “Typology of Impacts,� most of the impacts do not costs are expected to reduce in the same magnitude result from the infrastructure development itself but as the transportation time9 (see figure 3.3. below). from the indirect impacts associated with economic activities unlocked through an enhanced access to markets and a higher connectivity. 9 Authors are aware of the limitation of such an assumption, as the literature presents various examples where this direct correlation between time and costs does not apply; however, in absence of stronger assumption, this one has been applied. Figure 3.3: Impact of Change in Transportation Infrastructure on Travel Time and Costs Transport time with existing Planned infrastructure Transport time with new infrastructure (circa 2000) (roads in red, rail in green) infrastructure Source: IIASA 2010. 24 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Figure 3.4: Improvements of accessibility due to the planned Figure 3.5 : Internal transportation cost reduction deriving from infrastructure construction in the six Congo Basin countries. infrastructure improvements per simulation unit (in US$/ton). Note: Red = projected accessibility, blue = current accessibility (in hours). Note: Dark blue indicates the highest transportation cost reduction. Source: IIASA 2010. Figure 3.4 shows for each simulation unit the vari- the scenario “Improved Infrastructure,�11 the Congo- ation of accessibility to city under the “Enhanced BIOM projects a 12 percent increase in the total volume Transportation� scenario: most simulation units benefit of crops produced and a decrease in the price index for a shorter mean time to access a mid-size city (300,000 local crops, following infrastructure improvements in the habitants). Figure 3.5 highlights the variation between Congo Basin. Figure 3.5 shows the projected deforesta- internal transportation costs with existing infrastructure tion “hot spots� due to agricultural expansion. and internal transportation costs after implementation of planned improvements to infrastructure. The impact varies with the different crops. Infrastructure improvement has a greater impact on crops with low Improved transportation changes rural economic equi- unit price: since transportation costs depend on the librium. Reduction in the transportation costs can lead volume, not the value of a crop, the lower the unit to significant changes in economic equilibrium of a price of a crop, the higher the share of the internal rural area and dynamic of agricultural development: the transportation costs in total production costs. As a causal chain that the model is highlighted here: result, the model indicates a decrease in price for cassava and sugarcane; however, this does not apply Improved infrastructureà to maize. The graphs below highlight the areas with the Increase in agriculture productionà highest yield for different crops (sugarcane, cassava, Increased pressure on forests and corn). Figures show that the highest yields occur Enhanced transportation network tends to reduce the in the Democratic Republic of Congo for the two crops, price of the agricultural products to the consumer while contrary to corn (maize) where the highest yields are producer prices net of transport costs tend to increase. achieved in the northern part of the region, in the This leads to an increase of the consumption (often Central African Republic, and north Cameroon (figure through substitution phenomenon10) which, in turn, 3.6) the areas with high yield for sugarcane and cas- encourages producers to produce more. Typically, a sava tend to be the most exposed to deforestation.. new equilibrium would be reached with a larger volume and lower price compared to the initial situation. Under International competitiveness of agricultural and forestry products also benefits from reduction of 10 Consumers in the Congo Basin are increasingly reliant on imported agricul- tural products. Reduction in “prices to consumer� can drive the consumption 11 Without any changes on the other parameters. of locally grown products. Working Paper 3: Transport 25 Figure 3.6: Yield of Major Crops in the Congo Basin a. Sugarcane yield, high input b. Cassava yield, low input c. Corn yield, low input Source: IIASA 2010. Note: Red = low, blue = high. transportation costs; however, this may not be as of infrastructure quantity and quality, rank among the much as the Congo Basin countries usually argue. In lowest in the world. This situation has resulted in a fact, despite huge potential in terms of land availabil- fragmentation of economies and very limited exposure ity and suitability for biofuels, simulation under the to trade and exchanges, both internally and externally. CongoBIOM indicates that the poor business climate would still place Basin countries in a disadvantaged Addressing the infrastructure gap in Africa is high on position in comparison to other large basins. The recent the agenda at country, regional, and continental levels. moratorium on new biofuel plantations in Indonesia, The infrastructure deficit is widely acknowledged as however, seems to indicate that new trends could be one of the major barriers to economic growth and foreseen under effects of international leakages. development, and ambitious plans are now being prepared at the regional and continental levels to Illegal logging. In many areas, the opening of new address this gap. Individual countries also tend to roads is immediately associated with increase in illegal invest more national resources (along with external activities and illegal logging in particular. The domestic financing support) to both infrastructure construction demand for wood (both for construction and energy), and rehabilitation. while long overlooked, is now recognized as more important than the supply to international markets: Transport infrastructure development is likely to have this leads to increased pressure on forest resources. significant impacts on forests in the Congo Basin. As Without a proper governance system, uncontrolled the Congo Basin countries are planning for transforma- activities tend to explode. tional investments in infrastructure, it is critical that they identify ways that will reconcile transportation enhance- ment and forest preservation. The Congo Basin coun- tries are entering a transitional path and are committed RECOMMENDATIONS: HOW TO RECONCILE to close the infrastructure gap to realize their potential TRANSPORTATION ENHANCEMENT AND FORESTS in terms of economic growth and development. The PROTECTION IN THE CONGO BASIN infrastructure capital will significantly increase and improve in the next decades. The Basin countries need Infrastructure deficit in the Congo Basin is among to identify investments as well as policies that minimize the most severe in the world. Physical capital of the impacts associated with transport infrastructure on transport infrastructure is critically deteriorated in the primary forests. While the international community now Congo Basin: most of the indicators, both in terms 26 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection recognizes that forests (and particularly tropical forests) national level. For example, in the Congo Basin, there are a key element in the fight against global warming, are large amounts of non-forested land with high transport development in the Congo Basin should be potential in low-population density areas, which implies defined in a way that will respond to the urgent need that there is no need, in principle, to draw on currently to unlock development potential through an integration forested areas to satisfy the future demand for agri- of fragmented economies and to limit adverse impacts cultural commodities. However, past trends show that on natural forests. The REDD+12 mechanism—under forested areas may be more vulnerable to agriculture discussion among the parties of the UNFCCC (United expansion. So, if forests are to be protected, pro-active Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change)— measures need to be set up by the governments. This has the potential to generate significant financial type of exercise requires a strong coordination among flows to accompany developing countries to sustain the different line ministries and potential arbitrage at economic development, while reducing pressures on the highest levels to reconcile potential conflicting uses their natural forests. The below section provides some of lands. One output of such an exercise could be recommendations and guidance as well as insights the identification of major development corridors and on how the future REDD+ mechanism could be used growth poles that could be developed in a coordinated to support the new development paths that would manner, with the involvement of all governmental enti- accompany the development of transport infrastructure ties along with private sector and civil society. in the Congo Basin to minimize adverse impacts on natural forests. While such a land-use planning exercise need to be conducted at the country level (and even at the pro- Promote an Integrated Approach for Transport vincial level) to define country-specific priorities in line Infrastructure Development with national strategies, the benefit of regional integra- In all Congo Basin countries, one sees a lack of land-use tion is also undoubtedly huge for all the Congo Basin planning and intersectoral coordination to ensure sus- countries. As such, the corridor approach has also tainable development at the local and national levels. As been adopted by the Economic Community of Central a result, numerous conflicts have been noted between African States at the regional level to foster synergies and among conservation priorities, mining and logging and economies of scale amongst their member states. concessions, and livelihoods of the local populations. Due consideration is to be given to the development A comprehensive land-use planning exercise, to be of local development plans for areas affected by the conducted in a participatory manner, should determine new transport infrastructure. Developing transportation the different land uses to be pursued on the national infrastructure while mitigating deforestation requires territories. Once completed, this land plan would dis- a thorough reflection on the development model tinguish the forest areas that need to be preserved and at all levels. In fact, areas that are directly served by those that could potentially be converted to other uses. improved transportation facilities will become more While planning transport development, particular atten- competitive for various economic activities (such as tion should be given to “high-value forests� in terms of agricultural expansion, including palm-oil plantations). biodiversity, watershed, and cultural values. Local participation in transportation planning will help ensure that economic opportunities are maximized. Trade-offs among different sectors and within sectors Consultation with the local population affected by the need to be clearly understood by stakeholders so that transport development and definition of a consensual they can define robust development strategies at the local development plan should be part of the prepa- ration: it will help clarify land tenure issues as well as 12 REDD+ means “Reducing greenhouse emissions from Deforestation, forest potential economic opportunities related to the new Degradation, considering also the role of conservation, sustainable forest man- infrastructure. Mitigation measures at the local level agement and enhancement of forest carbon stocks� in developing countries. Working Paper 3: Transport 27 may include clarifying land tenure or integrating the A robust ex ante assessment of the potential indi- transportation project into a broader local develop- rect and induced impacts of transport development ment plan. Such plans may include the protection of can help design the mitigation measures that should forest banks along roads, rivers, or railways to avoid be associated to reduce adverse impacts on forest unplanned deforestation. resources. Such an exercise should be an integral part of the design phase of the infrastructure investments; Foster Multi-modal Transport Network however, currently only the direct environmental While much focus is given to roads, other modal impacts of investments are assessed. So far, neither systems can support economic growth in the Congo the environmental impact studies nor the safeguard Basin. For instance, with more than 12,000 km of mandatory reviews are considering the long-term navigable network, the Congo Basin could benefit from indirect effects on deforestation. Therefore, there is a a potentially highly competitive waterway system: such need to develop a new set of instruments that would a transport system is characterized by low associated help capture the impact of increasing economic com- costs (of US$0.05 per ton-km versus $0.15 per ton-km petitiveness in the areas served by new transportation for road or rail freight in Central Africa). However, the infrastructure. To do so, a robust economic modeling river transportation falls short of the role it could play in exercise (that is, economic prospective analysis) should overall economic development of the Congo Basin. In be undertaken as part of any infrastructure investment fact, since the 1950s, river transportation has actu- preparation. This would ensure that transportation ally declined because of an outdated and insufficient investments are designed consistently with a low-im- infrastructure, inadequate maintenance, poor regula- pact economic development. tory framework, and numerous non-physical barriers to movement. As a result, despite vast potential, the Enforce Forest Protection and Manage Forest– waterway system remains a marginal transport mode Agriculture Frontier in the Congo Basin. Enhancement of transport infrastructure will undoubt- edly increase the pressure in forest–agriculture frontier. While roads usually come with significant associated The agriculture frontier will be contained only if an adverse impacts on natural forests, the impacts of appropriate mix of institutional, technological, and waterway systems are usually minimal. The same economic factors is put in place. Studies in the Amazon applies to railway systems to a lesser extent. While indicate that zoning enforcement has been the most countries plan for transport development, they must economically efficient way to control the agricultural consider alternate modes and the pros and cons of expansion on forested lands. In other areas, payments different modes, not only in terms of economic returns of economic services seem to provide adequate but also in terms of environmental impacts. incentives. In all cases, technological improvements are needed to allow the farmers to maintain or to increase Properly Assess Ex Ante Impacts of their production without converting new lands. Transport Investments Transport development (whether new infrastructure Institutional capacities, particularly at the decentralized or rehabilitation of existing) will reshape the economic level, will have to be strengthened in order to properly profile of the areas it impacts and will consequently enforce monitoring and control activities. Check points increase pressure on forest resources, if any. It can lead will have to be established and properly run on the to deforestation through conversion of natural forests transport axis, particularly to combat illegal logging and into agricultural lands or to forest degradation through poaching. In addition, compliance with land-use plans widespread illegal logging activities. will have to be respected. Such activities can only be effectively implemented at a decentralized level, with human resources adequately trained and equipped. 28 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Enforcement measures will have to go hand in hand unemployment. Examples from the Amazon show that with the promotion of more intensive agricultural growth poles are not systematically to be associated practices as intensification, while increasing the produc- with post-transportation infrastructure deforestation: tivity, is likely to lead to more conversion of forested accompanying mitigation measures, such as land man- lands in a context of a growing demand for agricultural agement governance at the local level, can substantially products (both internal and potentially external) and contain the pressures on forest areas. Working Paper 3: Transport 29 CONCLUSION Congo Basin countries are faced with the considerable development is expected, and it could be channeled in challenge to reconcile infrastructure development and a more sustainable way. forest preservation. This implies the dual challenge of developing local economies through an improved infra- New environmental finance mechanisms can help structure while limiting the negative impacts of growth Congo Basin countries to transition toward a for- on the region’s natural capital—particularly forests. est-friendly development path. Environmental finance includes climate funding for adaptation and mitigation Infrastructure development is crucial to help the local efforts in general and REDD+ in particular, but also population out of poverty. In spite of the region’s great financing for biodiversity, wetlands, or soil restoration. potential in terms of exploitation and development, the This new, dedicated focus on forest protection within national poverty line hovers between a third and two- international climate agreements—in combination with thirds of the population in different countries of the the availability of new financial resources—moves sus- Basin, access to food is majorly inadequate, and under- tainable forest management up in the political agenda nourishment is highly prevalent. Transportation infra- and has facilitated in many countries a dialogue among structure is among the most deteriorated in the world forest agencies and those ministries and entities that creating, within the region, de facto a juxtaposition of regulate broader industrial and agricultural development. landlocked economies that make farmers considerably vulnerable to poor harvests. Looking ahead, the Congo Payments for environmental services and REDD+ Basin population is expected to double between 2000 funding in particular could be used to finance structural and 2030, leading to a total of 170 million people by changes and reforms in a cross-sectoral approach. In 2030—people who need of food, energy, shelter, and this context, performance-based payments for for- employment. In order to deal with that domestically est-friendly infrastructure development could be used. increased demand, infrastructure must be developed When accessing these new resources, countries may strategically. That means not only an improved trans- consider a number of issues in order to prioritize activi- port infrastructure but also improved storage capacities ties and effectively allocate these new funds. It is, there- and better access to local markets to allow for higher fore, up to national governments to define how these efficiency in domestic supply chains. various mechanisms fit into their own development; how to best use such resources; whether and how to Passive protection of forests due to low infrastructure meet the relevant criteria of funds or mechanisms; and development so far. Due to the decrease of quality in how to assess the benefits and risks associated with the regional transport networks and the remoteness of particular funds, including the costs of putting into place most of the forested area, forests have been passively relevant information and institutional conditions. protected. Most notably, after independence from colo- nial regimes, the region has seen a strong decline in Even though the precise nature of REDD+ funding infrastructure quality. This former shortcoming can today remains uncertain, there are sources available now be turned into an advantage. 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Working Paper 3: Transport 33 ANNEXES Annex 1 NEW TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT AND REPAIR OF THE EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE LIST OF PROJECTS USED FOR THE SIMULATION 34 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection WORLD BANK Total Cost Project Implementation (US$ Length name/ID date millions) Description Road names (Km) Works Status PMURR 2002–2008 $152.77 Transport, roads, electricity Mpozo-Sonabata Bridge 261 Rehabilitation of 100% finished (Volet routes and water, urban paved roads 1390 km) infrastructure, health, social protection Kenge-Kikwit-Batshamba 346 Rehabilitation of 95% finished paved roads Batshamba-Tshikapa 258 Opening up of Steps canceled unpaved roads Tshikapa-Kananga 254 Rehabilitation of 100% finished Tshikapa bridge Kananga-MbujiMayi 183 Opening up of Works abandoned unpaved roads at RN1 and Mbuji- Mayi crossings MbujiMayi-Mweneditu 158 Maintenance of paved roads Mweneditu Nguba 769 Construction of Not envisaged paved road within the framework of the PMURR Nguba- Lubumbashi 184 Rehabilitation of 70% finished paved roads PUSPRES 2005–2010 $93.34 Rehabilitation of priority Mbujimayi-Kasongo- 1020 Opening up of Execution: (Volet routes infrastructure of transport, Bukavu unpaved roads Physical-12.7%. 1779 km) rehabilitation of urban Financial-74% functions in 4 major cities and 8 urban centers, support to based communities, Ministry of Finance, Institutional Strengthening Kisangani-Niania-Beni 751 Opening up of Execution: unpaved roads Physical-78%. Financial-80% Port de 8 Rehabilitation of 100% finished Matadi-Pont Mpozo paved roads PUAACV 2005–2010 $33.44 Support to medium size Lubumbashi-Kasomeno- 208 Opening up of Execution: (Volet routes cities, rehabilitation of Kasenga unpaved roads Physical-63%. 600 km) administrative centers of Financial-89% provinces, opening up of roads and institutional strengthening of provinces Akula-Gemena-Mbari 168 Opening up of Execution: unpaved roads Physical-12%. Financial-42.6% Mbari-Libenge et 224 Opening up of Execution: Boyabo-Zongo unpaved roads Physical-40%. Financial-41.5% PRO ROUTES 2008-2013 $123.00 n/a Kisangani-Buta-Bunduki 650 Reopening 0% (1800 km) (World Bank and Dulia-Bondo $50 and DFID $73) n/a Uvira-Fizi-Kalemie- 1150 Dirt road 0% Pweto-Kasomeno Working Paper 3: Transport 35 AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK Total Cost Project Implementation (US$ Length name/ID date millions) Description Road names (Km) Works Status Rehabilitation of 2005—2010 $52.45 Rehabilitation of Nsele-Lufimi 95 Rehabilitation 0% Nsele-Lufimi and Nsele-Lufimi et of paved roads Kwango-Kenge Kwango-Kenge roads roads Project Study on the planned Loange-Mbuji Mayi road construction Kwango-Kenge 73 Rehabilitation 0% of paved roads Rural roads within 140 Dirt road 0% Kwango-Kenge construction Loange-Mbujimayi 601 Paved road 0% construction 36 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection EUROPEAN UNION Total Cost Implementation (euro Length Project Name/ID date millions) Description Roads names (Km) Works Status Programme Jul-03 97.64 Rehabilitation of roads Sonabata-Lufimi-Kenge 343 Preservation of RN1 d’appui à la infrastructures and réhabilitation adduction of clean water, (PAR II)+ building operational avenants n° 1 capacities of OdR, et n° 2 of OVD and Regideso (volet routes) Lufimi-Kwango 57 Rehabilitation of Ongoing paved roads Mongata-Bandundu- 281 Opening up of 28% finished Mpoko unpaved roads RN1-Mpoko-Bandundu- 809 Opening up of Weti-Mbandaka unpaved roads Gemena-Zongo 224 Mechanized 100% finished rehabilitation of national roads and priority dirt roads Gemena-Mobanza- 907 Opening up of 0% Businga-Lisala- unpaved roads Bumba-Bunduki et Kananga-Tshikapa East Congo Aug-06 65.00 Rehabilitation of roads Fr Burundi-Kivimvira- 373 Rehabilitation and 0% Program infrastructures and Uvira-Kamanyola- maintenance of (PEC) adduction of clean water, Bukavu-Kavumu and roads. Program of building operational Sake-Kanyabayonga, Reopening and Rehabilitation capacities of OdR, of OVD Oso-Biruwe and maintenance of and Reinsertion and Regideso Osokari-Walikale unpaved roads after war in the Eastern Provinces in the Democratic Republic of Congo Kamanyola-Bukavu, 710 Fizi-Minembwe, Kavumu-Nyabibwe- Minova and Biruwe-Osokari, Rutshuru-Bunagana, Kanyabayonga-Beni- Kasindi, Beni-Eringeti Uvira-Fizi and 173 0% Fizi-Minembwe Mbau-Kamango and 76 60% finished Kamango-Nobili Kisangani-Lubutu 204 Reopening up of Just started paved roads Sake-Walikale 287 Maintenance of 0% unpaved roads Iga Barrière-Nioka 96 Rehabilitation 8% finished of road Working Paper 3: Transport 37 BELGIUM Financement BELGE : Volet Routes, Voiries et pistes Rurales Total Cost Implementation (US Length Project Name/ID date $millions) Description Roads names (Km) Works Status Programme d’Urgence 2006-2008 2.30 Improve access to water, Boma-Tshela 117 Rehabilitation Ongoing pour la RDC sanitation of priority zones, and of paved roads 2006–2008 opening up of these zones in (Volet routes) major cities UNITED KINGDOM Total Cost Implementation (US$ Length Project Name/ID date millions) Description Roads names (Km) Works Status Réhabilitation 2004 $7.00 Rehabilitation of the road Kisangani-Ubundu 129 Opening up of   de la route Kisangani-Ubundu by the HIMO unpaved roads Kisangani-Ubundu method GERMANY Total Cost Implementation (US$ Length Project Name/ID date millions) Description Roads names (Km) Works Status Réhabilitation route 2007–2008 $0.60 Rehabilitation of the road and Punia-Kowe 97% Punia-Kowe construction of 24 bridges Réhabilitation de 13 2007–2008 $0.15 Rehabilitation of bridges Punia-Matumba, 52% ponts sur la route Kindu-Kikombo Punia-Matumba et route Kindu-Kikombo Volet AAA : 2005–2008 $9.01 Rehabilitation of the road Walikale-Lubutu 250     Reconstruction d’infrastructure en HIMO 38 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Annex 2 GLOBIOM MODEL—FORMAL DESCRIPTION Objective function (1) Exogenous demand constraints: (2) Product balance (3) Land use balance (4) (5) (6) Recursivity equations (calculated only once the model has been solved for a given period) (7) (8) Working Paper 3: Transport 39 Irrigation water balance (9) Greenhouse gas emissions account (10) Variables D demand quantity (tons, m3, kcal) W irrigation water consumption (m3) Q land use/cover change (ha) A land in different activities (ha) B livestock production (kcal) P processed quantity of primary input (tons, m3) T interregionally traded quantity (tons, m3, kcal) E greenhouse gas emissions (tCO2eq) L available land (ha) Functions jdemd demand function (constant elasticity function) jsplw water supply function (constant elasticity function) jlucc land use/cover change cost function (linear function) jtrad trade cost function (constant elasticity function) Parameters tland land management cost except for water ($/ha) tlive livestock production cost ($/kcal) tproc processing cost ($/unit (t or m3) of primary input) dtarg exogenously given target demand (for example, biofuel targets; EJ, m3, kcal) aland crop and tree yields (tons/ha, or m3/ha) alive livestock technical coefficients (1 for livestock calories, negative number for feed requirements [t/kcal]) aproc conversion coefficients (−1 for primary products, positive number for final products, for example, GJ/m3) Linit initial endowment of land of given land use/cover class (ha) Lsuit total area of land suitable for particular land uses/covers (ha) w irrigation water requirements (m3/ha) e emission coefficients (tCO2eq/unit of activity) Indexes r economic region (28 aggregated regions and individual countries) t time period (10-year steps) c country (203) 40 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection o simulation unit (defined at the intersection of 50 × 50 kilometer grid, homogeneous altitude class, slope class, and soil class) l land cover/use type (cropland, grassland, managed forest, fast-growing tree plantations, pristine forest, other natural vegetation) s species (37 crops, managed forests, fast-growing tree plantations) m technologies: land use management (low input, high input, irrigated, subsistence, “current�); primary forest products transformation (sawn wood and wood pulp production); and bioenergy conversion­(first-­ generation ethanol and biodiesel from sugarcane, corn, rapeseed, and soybeans; energy production from forest biomass—fermentation, gasification, and CHP) y outputs (Primary: 30+ crops, sawlogs, pulpwood, other industrial logs, woodfuel, plantations biomass. Processed products: forest products (sawn wood and wood pulp), first-generation biofuels (ethanol and biodiesel), second-generation biofuels (ethanol and methanol), other bioenergy (power, heat, and gas) e greenhouse gas accounts: CO2 from land use change; CH4 from enteric fermentation, rice production, and manure management; N2O from synthetic fertilizers and from manure management; and CO2 sav- ings/emissions from biofuels substituting fossil fuels Table A.1 Input Data Used in the CongoBIOM Model Parameter Source Year Land characteristics Skalsky et al. (2008), FAO, USGS, NASA, CRU UEA, JRC, IFPRI, IFA, WISE, etc. Soil classes ISRIC Slope classes Altitude classes SRTM 90m Digital Elevation Data (http://srtm.csi.cgiar.org) Country boundaries Aridity index ICRAF, Zomer et al. (2008) Temperature threshold European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Protected area FORAF Land cover Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) Institute for Environment and Sustainability 2000 Agriculture Area Cropland area (1000 ha) Global Land Cover (GLC 2000) 2000 Institute for 2000 Environment and Sustainability EPIC crop area (1000 ha) IFPRI—You and Wood (2006) Cash crop area (1000 ha) IFPRI—You et al. (2007) 2000 Irrigated area (1000 ha) FAO Average 1998–2002 Yield EPIC crop yield (T/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Cash crop yield(T/ha) IFPRI- You et al. (2007) 2000 Average regional yield (T/ha) FAO Average 1998–2002 Input use Quantity of nitrogen (FTN) (kg/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Quantity of phosphorous (FTP)(kg/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Quantity of water (1000 m³/ha) BOKU, Erwin Schmid Fertilizer application rates IFA (1992) Working Paper 3: Transport 41 Parameter Source Year Fertilizer application rates FAOSTAT Costs for 4 irrigation systems Sauer et al. (2008) Production Crop production (1000 T) FAO Average 1998–2002 Livestock production FAO Average 1998–2002 Prices Crops (USD/T) FAO Average 1998–2002 Fertilizer price (USD/kg) USDA (http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/FertilizerUse/) Average 2001–05 Forestry FORAF Area under concessions in Congo Basin (1000 ha) Maximum share of sawlogs in the mean annual Kindermann et al. (2006) increment (m³/ha/ year) Harvestable wood for pulp production (m³/ha/year) Kindermann et al. (2006) Mean annual increment (m³/ha/year) Kindermann et al. (2008) based on the Global Forest Resources Assessment (FAO 2006a) Biomass and wood production (m³ or 1000 T) FAO 2000 Harvesting costs Kindermann et al. (2006) Short rotation plantation Havlik et al. (2011) Suitable area (1000 ha) Zomerat et al. (2008) 2010 Maximum annual increment (m³/ha) Alig et al. (2000); Chiba and Nagata (1987); FAO (2006b); Wadsworth (1997) Potential NPP Cramer et al. (1999) Potentials for biomass plantations Zomer et al. (2008) Sapling cost for manual planting Carpentieri et al. (1993); Herzogbaum GmbH (2008) Labor requirements for plantation establishment Jurvélius (1997) Average wages ILO (2007) Unit cost of harvesting equipment and labor FPP (1999); Jirouš ek et al. (2007); Stokes et al. (1986); Wang et al. (2004) Slope factor Hartsough et al. (2001) Ratio of mean PPP adjustment Heston et al. (2006) GHG emissions N2O emissions from application of IPCC Guidelines (1996) synthetic fertilizers (kg CO2/ha) Fertilizer application rates IFA (1992) CO2 savings/emission coefficients CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR (2007), Renewable Fuels Agency (2009) Above- and below-ground living Kindermann et al. (2008) biomass in forests (tCO2eq/ha) Above- and below-ground living biomass in grassland Ruesch and Gibbs (2008) (http://cdiac.ornl.gov/epubs/ and othernatural land (tCO2eq/ha) ndp/global_carbon/carbon_documentation.html) Total non-carbon emissions EPA (2006) (million metric CO2 equivalent) Crop carbon dioxide emissions (tons CO2/hectare) EPA (2006) GHG sequestration in SRP (tCO2/ha) Chiba and Nagata (1987) International Trade MacMap database Bouet et al. (2005) BACI (based on COMTRADE) Gaulier and Zignago (2009) International freight costs Hummels et al. (2001) 42 Deforestation Trends in the Congo Basin: Reconciling Economic Growth and Forest Protection Parameter Source Year Infrastructure Existing infrastructure WRI; Referentiel Geographique Commun Planned infrastructure National statistics from Cameroon, Central African Republic, and Gabon and AICD (World Bank) for Democratic Republic of Congo, and Republic of Congo Process Conversion coefficients for sawn wood 4DSM model—Rametsteiner et al. (2007) Conversion coefficients for wood pulp 4DSM model—Rametsteiner et al. (2007) Conversion coefficients and costs for energy Biomass Technology Group (2005); Hamelinck and Faaij (2001); Leduc et al. (2008) Conversion coefficients and costs for ethanol Hermann and Patel (2008) Conversion coefficients and costs for biodiesel Haas et al. (2006) Production costs for sawn wood and wood pulp Internal IIASA database and RISI database (http://www.risiinfo.com) Population Population per country (1,000 inhabitants Russ et al. (2007) average 1999–2001 Estimated total population per region every 10 years GGI Scenario Database (2007)—Grubler et al. (2007) between 2000 and 2100 (1,000 inhabitants) 0.5 degree grid GGI Scenario Database (2007)—Grubler et al. (2007) Population density CIESIN (2005) Demand Initial food demand for crops (1000 T) FBS data—FAO average 1998–2002 Initial feed demand for crops (1000 T) FBS data—FAO average 1998–2002 Crop requirement per animal calories Supply Utilisation Accounts, FAOSTAT average 1998–2002 (T/1,000,000 kcal) Crop energy equivalent (kcal/T) FBS data—FAO Relative change in consumption for meat, animal, FAO (2006a) World agriculture: toward 2030/2050 vegetable, milk (kcal/ capita) (Tables: 2.1, 2.7, 2.8) Own price elasticity Seale, Regmi, and Bernstein (2003) GDP projections GGI Scenario Database (2007) SUA data for crops (1,000 tons) FAO FBS data FAO Bioenergy projections Russ et al. (2007) Biomass and wood consumption FAO (m³/ha or 1,000 T/ha) DATABASES 30 arcmin as well as country layers. Consequently, In order to enable global biophysical process modeling Homogeneous Response Units (HRU) have been of agricultural and forest production, a comprehensive delineated by including only those parameters of database—integrating information on soil type, climate, landscape, which are almost constant over time. At topography, land cover, and crop management—has the global scale, we have included five altitude classes, been built (Skalsky et al. 2008). The data are avail- seven slope classes, and six soil classes. In a second able from various research institutes (NASA, JRC, FAO, step, the HRU layer is merged with other relevant infor- USDA, IFPRI, etc.) and were harmonized into several mation, such as a global climate map, land category/ common spatial resolution layers, including 5 and use map, irrigation map, and so on, which are actually Working Paper 3: Transport 43 inputs into the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate large switches from one crop to another. The model model (Williams 1995; Izaurralde et al. 2006). The currently restricts coffee and cocoa production to Sub- Simulation Units are the intersection between country Saharan Africa. Initial demand for these crops is set at boundaries, 30 arcmin grid (50 × 50 kilometers), and the observed imports in 2000 and is then adjusted for Homogenous Response Unit. population growth. This assumption means tat neither price changes nor income changes influence demand for coffee and cocoa. MAIN ASSUMPTIONS FOR THE BASELINE Population growth: The regional population devel- Demand for energy: The model makes the assump- opment is taken from the International Institute for tion that woodfuel use per inhabitant remains constant, Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)’s SRES B2 sce- so that woodfuel demand increases proportionally to nario (Grübler et al. 2007). World population should population. Bioenergy consumption comes from the increase from 6 billion in 2000 to 8 billion in 2030. In POLES model (Russ et al. 2007) and assumes that the Congo Basin, the model uses an average annual there is no international trade in biofuels. growth rate of 3.6 percent between 2000 and 2010 and 2.2 percent between 2020 and 2030, leading Other assumptions: The baseline is a situation where to a total population of 170 million people in 2030. technical parameters remain identical to the 2000 The model uses the spatially explicit projections of level; new results are driven only by increases in food, population by 2010, 2020, and 2030 to r ­epresent the wood, and bioenergy demand. There is no change in demand for woodfuel. No difference is made between yields, annual increments, production costs, transpor- rural and urban markets. tation costs, or trade policies. Subsistence farming is also fixed at its 2000 level. No environmental policies Exogenous constraints on food consumption: are implemented other than the 2000 protected areas. From the intermediate scenario of the SRES B2, GDP This baseline should be regarded as a “status quo� per capita is expected to grow at an average rate of situation that allows us to isolate the impacts of various 3 percent per year from 2000 to 2030 in the Congo drivers of deforestation in the Congo Basin in the Basin. FAO projections are used for per capita meat different scenarios. consumption. The model considers a minimum calorie intake per capita in each region and disallows Working Paper 3: Transport 45 NY: Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center REFERENCES FOR MODEL (SEDAC), Columbia University. http://sedac.ciesin. Agritrade. 2009. “The Cocoa Sector in ACP-EU Trade.� columbia.edu/gpw. Executive brief, October 2009. CONCAWE/JRC/EUCAR. 2007. “Well-to-Wheels Analysis Andersen, P., and S. 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