Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) AFRICA | South Sudan | Finance & Markets Global Practice | Special Financing | Emergency Recovery Loan | FY 2012 | Seq No: 8 | ARCHIVED on 31-May-2016 | ISR23717 | Implementing Agencies: Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:10-Jan-2012 Effectiveness Date:01-Aug-2012 Planned Mid Term Review Date:25-Sep-2014 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:25-Sep-2014 Original Closing Date:30-Nov-2014 Revised Closing Date:01-Jun-2016 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project development objective (PDO) is to improve access to finance for private sector development and increase employment opportunities in South Sudan. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name 1. Establish Commercially-Viable Microfinance Institutions:(Cost $2.80 M) 2. Promote Micro-Entrepreneurship:(Cost $4.40 M) 3. Mobile Payments and Trade Integration Policy Support:(Cost $0.30 M) 4. Institutional Strengthening of the South Sudan Business Forum and Project Management:(Cost $1.50 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  High  High 5/31/2016 Page 1 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) Implementation Status and Key Decisions The project is scheduled to close on June 1, 2016, after a six month extension. At project closure, the grant is fully disbursed and the final project ratings are Moderately Satisfactory for both achievement of the project development objectives and implementation progress. Significant achievements have been achieved in all components including: (i) Microfinance: disbursing of US$1.2 million in lines of credit to 5 eligible MFIs, and provision of technical assistance; (2) Promote Micro-Entrepreneurship: business plan competitions have been successfully completed with 1,301 winners selected, trained and disbursements are currently underway; (3) Mobile Payments and Trade Integration Policy Support: Mobile money regulations adopted by Central Bank of South Sudan in December 2015. Project also supported training of 75 ministry personnel in trade negotiations, directly supporting negotiators in South Sudan’s ascension into EAC. (4) Institutional Strengthening of the South Sudan Business Forum (SSBF) and Project Management : SSBF has played a critical role of fostering dialogue between public and private sector amid the ongoing conflict, and has led to the passage of some essential legislation. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  High  High Macroeconomic  --  High  High Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Moderate  Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Moderate  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Substantial  Substantial Fiduciary  --  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  --  Low  Low Stakeholders  --  Moderate  Moderate Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  High  High Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Number of jobs generated by enterprises supported by the BPC and BSC sub-grants (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 5/31/2016 Page 2 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) Value 98.00 98.00 107.00 1400.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 10-Nov-2015 25-May-2016 01-Jun-2016 Comments The Business Plan Competitions are disbursing to beneficiaries as of May 17, 2016. As of date, however, only 9 (out of 1,301) beneficiaries have collected their awards, due to the delays explained above. A total of 486 beneficiaries have submitted their duly accepted applications to KCB out of which 419 (1200 total) are Business Start-up Competition and 67 (of 101) are for the Business Plan Competition. However, based on the progress, it can be reasonably expected that a significant share of the beneficiaries will collect the award and begin to implement their business plans. It is also expected that some beneficiaries have fled the country due to the conflict and economic crisis. Based on this, the indicator is expected to be substantially achieved following project closure. PHINDPDOTBL  Number of people with access to finance trough targeted MFIs and BPC (Male) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3069.00 2483.00 2483.00 4440.00 Date 30-Nov-2013 31-May-2015 01-Jun-2015 01-Jun-2016 Comments Actuals comprise only microfinance beneficiaries as of May 31, 2015 (currently only incomplete data is available for the 3 largest MFIs, but complete data will be compiled during next mission and ICR mission). It is expected that this figure is likely to have dropped due to exogenous factors, including the severe economic downturn precipitated by the fall in oil prices and the conflict, both of which have contributed to a decline in the microfinance sector. The final figure will include as many 520 Male beneficiaries from the Business Start-up and Business Plan competitions, which have only begun disbursing in May 2016. Hence, the total figure is likely to be less than 3,000, which is below the target (and baseline). However, to evaluate project performance, consideration should be given to the following: 1) the project substantially completed relevant activities, disbursing US$1.2 million in lines of credit to MFIs (and US$200,000 in technical assistance to strengthen capacity of sector), and US$2.7 million business competition awards (funds are available at commercial bank - KCB - and beneficiaries have begun to collect awards). The target (which was already substantially reduced in October 2014 restructuring) assumed moderate growth in the microfinance sector which has not transpired due to aforementioned difficult country context. PHINDPDOTBL  Number of people with access to finance trough targeted MFIs and BPC (Female) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5531.00 4608.00 4608.00 6660.00 Date 30-Nov-2013 31-May-2015 01-Jun-2015 01-Jun-2016 Comments see comment above. It is estimated that the final figure will be less than 5,389 (781 women BSC/BPC beneficiaries) + 4,608 MFI female clients. As noted above, it is expected that the MFI number will shrink due to the severe economic downturn. 5/31/2016 Page 3 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) PHINDPDOTBL  Number of businesses supported through BPC (Male) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 20.00 20.00 440.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 10-Nov-2015 01-Jun-2016 01-Jun-2016 Comments Final figure expected to be at least 520, following disbursement of BSC/BPC awards. PHINDPDOTBL  Number of businesses supported through BPC (Female) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 25.00 25.00 660.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 01-Jun-2016 01-Jun-2016 Comments The final figure is expected to be 800, following disbursement of BSC/BPC awards PHINDPDOTBL  Number of people with access to finance through targeted MFIs (Male) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3049.00 2483.00 2483.00 4000.00 Date 30-Nov-2013 31-May-2015 01-Jun-2015 01-Jun-2016 PHINDPDOTBL  Number of people with access to finance through targeted MFIs (Female) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 5506.00 4608.00 4608.00 6000.00 Date 30-Nov-2013 31-May-2015 24-Jun-2015 01-Jun-2016 5/31/2016 Page 4 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) Overall Comments Most targets have not been achieved as of project closing due to 1) delays in disbursements of BSC/BPC grants; and 2) impact of economic downturn and conflict on MFI sector (including drying up of funding sources). However, BSC/BPC grants have begun to disburse and the related targets are likely to be substantially achieved in the months following project closing. The microfinance sector continues to suffer from the economic downturn (rapid depreciation of SSP), and will likely fall short of final targets, which had already been reduced at the October 2014 restructuring (on account of 2 major MFIs exiting South Sudan). However, this shortcoming is due to exogenous factors (conflict, economy). Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  No of active loan accounts -Microfinance (Number, Core) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 6269.00 7286.00 7091.00 6269.00 Date 30-Nov-2013 30-Jun-2014 31-May-2015 30-Nov-2014 PHINDIRITBL  Percentage of project-supported institutions that are reporting on this indicator (Percentage, Core Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 100.00 86.00 86.00 100.00 PHINDIRITBL  Portfolio at Risk - Microfinance (Percentage, Core) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 15.20 15.20 15.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 31-May-2015 01-Jun-2015 30-Nov-2015 Comments Portfolio at Risk: The value of all loans outstanding that have one or more installments of principal past due more than 30 days. This includes the entire unpaid principal balance, including both the past due and future installments, but not accrued interest. It also includes loans that have been restructured or rescheduled. 5/31/2016 Page 5 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) PHINDIRITBL  Percentage of project-supported institutions that are reporting on this indicator (Percentage, Core Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 67.00 86.00 86.00 100.00 PHINDIRITBL  Number of ongoing businesses supported through BPC (Male) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2014 30-Nov-2015 PHINDIRITBL  Number of ongoing businesses supported through BPC (Female) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 60.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2014 30-Nov-2015 PHINDIRITBL  Number of startup businesses supported through BPC (Male) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 20.00 20.00 420.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2014 30-Nov-2015 5/31/2016 Page 6 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) PHINDIRITBL  Number of businesses supported through the BPC still in operation at the end of theproject (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2014 30-Nov-2015 PHINDIRITBL  Number of startup businesses supported through BPC (Female) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 25.00 25.00 625.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2014 30-Nov-2015 PHINDIRITBL  Number of MCII staff trained on trade policy and integration (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 25.00 75.00 25.00 Date 30-Sep-2011 31-Jul-2014 22-May-2016 30-Nov-2015 Comments South Sudan officially joined the East African Community on April 15, 2016. The project provided training to 25 Government officials, many of who directly participated in EAC negotiations. PHINDIRITBL  The regulatory framework for mobile banking and payments is completed and presented to Cabinet (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N Y Y Date 30-Sep-2011 30-Jun-2014 22-May-2016 30-Nov-2015 Comments Mobile money regulations were adopted by the Central Bank Board of Directors in December 2015. The project also supported the development of an Action Plan to roll out mobile money. 5/31/2016 Page 7 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P128239 TF-11812 Effective USD 9.00 9.00 0.00 9.00 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P128239 TF-11812 Effective 14-Mar-2012 14-Mar-2012 01-Aug-2012 30-Nov-2014 01-Jun-2016 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 06-Nov-2014 ,Level 2 Approved on 21-Nov-2015 5/31/2016 Page 8 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report South Sudan Private Sector Development Project (P128239) Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 5/31/2016 Page 9 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy