AFFECTED                     AFFECTED                   CAPITAL LOSS
      WORLDBANKGROUP
                                       Q GFDRR           EROPE
                                                         ER      AND CENTRALA5IA (ECA)
                                                         RI5K PROFILES                                                BY 100-YEAR                  BY 250-YEAR                FROM 250-YEAR
                                                                                                                      FLOOD                        EARTHQUAKE                 EARTHQUAKE
                                                                             GDP $36.4 billion*                             I

Serbia
                                                                                                      HUN GAR Y




      erbia's population and economy        agriculture making a small con-                                                                                                              Annual Average of Affected GOP
      are exposed to earthquakes and        tribution. Serbia's per capita GDP                        0
      floods, with floods posing the        was                                                                        rn       nk40r
greater risk The model results for pres-          m                                                                                                                                      -his                            EARTHQUAKE
ent-day risk shown in this risk profile                                                  apadno-bac
are based on population and gross           ince in Serbia, with greater color
domestic product (GDP) estimates for        saturation indicating greater GDP                                                                                                                0 Negligible
2015. The estimated damage caused by        within a province. The blue circles                       znj-atc
historical events is inflated to 2015 US    indicate the risk of experiencing
dollars.                                    floods and the orange circles the                                                                                                            GDP (billions of $)
                                            ri sk of earthquake s in term s o f                       Senk                              zo     n
Just over 55 percent of Serbia's pop-       normalized annual average of                                              Bsk
ulation lives in urban environments.        affected GDP The largest circles
The country's GDP was approximately         represent the greatest normalized
US$36.4 billion in 2015, with about 60      risk The risk is estimated using
percent derived from services, most         flood and earthquake risk models.                                                           ojai             Bracvki                                    Thers is a high correlation
of the rest generated by industry, and                                                                                                                                    0                           (r=095) between ths
                                            The table displays the provinces                               Kolubrk                                                      BorskipolaonndGPfa
                                                                                                      A                                                                                                     pounaidGPos
                                            at greatest normalized risk for
                                            each peril. In relative terms, as                              -ymdlk


TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES                      shown in the table, the pro.-                                                                          P

                                            ince at greatest risk of floods is                                              Moraiki
                                  '4        Severno-banatski, and the one                                                                                           ajecarski
                                                                                                                                                                   7~           4
                       EARTHQUAKE           at greatest risk of earthquakes                     t<    Ialt i b'o<ra

ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF         is SumadijsI. In absolute terms,                                                                   inki
AFFECTED GDP (%)  AFFECTED GDP (%)          the province at greatest risk of
                                            floods is juzno-backd, and the one
Severno-banatski       Sumadijski       2    a
Srednje-banatski       Moravicki        2                                                                                                              Tpl I                    P
Juzno-backi            Pcinjski         2   Grad Beograd.
Nisavski               Pomoravski       2
Zapadno-backi          Kolubarski       1
Srernski               Pirotski         1
Raski                  Rasinski         1                                                                                               KOSOVO
Pirotski               Jablanicki       1                                                                                                                          Pcinjski
Moravicki                               1                  m    iRaski
                   2   Podurbavski      1   tun[anicki
                                  SerbiaWORLDBANKGROUP                                                                                            ROPE" AND CENTRAL
                                                                                                                                                E|GDR            A51A(ECA)




T      he most devastating flood in        flood of any return period to occur                                                            Affected GOP (%)for



       Serbia since it gained its in-        more than once in the same year, or        HUNGARY                                           10 and 100-year return   periods
      dependence in 2006 occurred            to appear in consecutive years, or not                                                       One blck 5%
in 2014. It affected over 1.6 million        to happen at all over a long period of                                                                                40
people in 38 municipalities in west-         time.
em   and central Serbia, and it caused                                                                                                    Annua average            10
over 50 fatalities and more than $2          If the 10- and 100-year bars are the
billion in damage. Other major floods                                                                                                                 10-year   100-year
took place in 1999, 2001, 2002, 2005,        year event is as large as that of a 100-                                       ROMANIA
2006,2007, 2009, and 2010. All these         year event, and the annual avenge of
events highlight Serbia's great vul-         affected GDP is dominated by events
nerability to floods, and their rapid        that happen relatively frequently.
succession produces a large cumula-          If the impact of a 100-year event is
tive effect on the country.                  much greater than that of a 10-year
                                             event, then less frequent events make
This map depicts the impact of flood-        a larger contribution to the annual
ing on provinces' GDPs, represented          average of affected GDP. Thus, even         Sremski            Juznobanatski
as percentages of their annual aver-         if a province's annual affected GDP                   B
age GDPs affected, with greater color        seems small, less frequent and more
saturation indicating higher percent-        intense events can still have large
ages. The bar graphs represent GDP           impacts.
affected by floods with return periods
of 10 years (white) and 100 years            The annual average population                  KoLi                                Borski
(black). The horizontal line across the
bars also shows the annual average of        2,       adh       nulv        g
GDP affected by floods.                      affected GDP about $1 billion. Within
                                             the various provinces, the 10- and
When a flood has a 10-year return            100-year impacts do not differ much,                      M*                             N
period, it means the probability of          so relatively frequent floods have
occurrence of a flood of that magni-
tude or greater is 10 percent per year.
A 100-year flood has a probability
of occurrence of 1 percent per year
This means that over a long period of
time, a flood of that magnitude will,
on average, occur once every 100
years. It does not mean a 100-year
flood will occur exactly once every
100 years. In fact, it is possible for a
                                     SerbiaWORLDBANKGROUP                                                                       GF   RROP    EL           CENTRALA5IA(EICA)
                                                                                                                                                       AND)




S     erbia's worst earthquake since     of any return period to occur more                                                            Affected GOP (%)for



      1900 took place in 1922 in         than once in the same year, or to                       HUNGARY                               10 and 100-year return periods
      Belgrade, with a magnitude         appear in consecutive years, or not                                                           Orie block = 10%       70
of 6. Another major earthquake oc-       to happen at all over a long period                                                                                     40
curred in 1740 and damaged Novi          of time.                                                                                      Annual average            20
Sad. If the same earthquake were to
occur today, it would have an esti-      Ifthe 10- and 100-year bars are the
mated death maeddethtllofloeto20   ad
              toll of close to 200 and   same height, then the impact of a               Severno-backi                                             10-year      100-year
cause about $3 billion in damage.        10-year event is as large as that of a                                   r -na   kid
More recently, a 2010 earthquake         100-year event, and the annual av-
caused two fatalities and more than      erage of affected GDP is dominated       Zapadno-baci                                                     i
$100 million in damage.                  by events that happen relatively fre-

This map depicts the impact of           quently.
                                         event    If the greater
                                               is much   impact of a 100-year
                                                                 than that of                    II-n,   - h ki
earthquakes on provinces' GDPs,          a10yrevn,tnlssfqut
represented as percentages of their      events make larger contributions to
annual average GDPs affected, with       the annual average of affected GDP.                          v-1remski    rane
greater color saturation indicating      Thus, even if a province's annual
higher percentages. The bar graphs       affected GDP seems small, less fre-
represent GDP affected by earth-         quent and more intense events can                                            r Boo
quakes with return periods of 10         still have large impacts.
years (white) and 100 years (black).
The horizontal line across the bars
also shows the annual average of         affected by earthquakes in Serbia
                by
                 afecte
            GOP by
G DP affe cted     erthqukes.is
                   e arthqu ake s.         about 60,000 and the annual                           It
                                         average affected GDP about $300
When an earthquake has a 10-year         million. The annual averages of fa-
return period, it means the prob-        talities and capital losses caused by
ability of occurrence of an earth-       earthquakes are about 10 and about
quake of that magnitude or greater       $40 million, respectively. The fatal-
is 10 percent per year. A 100-year       ities and capital losses caused by
earthquake has a probability of          more intense, less frequent events
occurrence of 1 percent per year.        can be substantially larger than
This means that over a long period       the annual averages. For example,
of time, an earthquake of that mag-      an earthquake with a 0.4 percent
nitude will, on average, occur once      annual probability of occurrence
every 100 years. It does not mean        (a 25S-year return period event)
a 100-year earthquake will occur         could cause about 500 fatalities and
exactly once every 100 years. In         $1 billion in capital loss (about 3
fact, it is possible for an earthquake   percent of G      aP).
                                     bi iaWORLDBANKGROUP
                                  SeSer                                                                                                                                   -ROFILES       Q      U-                       s"AND CENTRAL
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       E|GFDRR
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       R51
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    A51A(ECA)




(7 7    EARTHQUAKE                                                                                       EARTHQUAKE
        ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $)                                                         ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES




                                                                                                                                                                                     he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential
                                                                                                                                                                                    for greatest annual average capital losses and highest
                                                                                                                                                                                annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using
                                                                                                                                                                                an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital
                   asinski                   Su      iski 3                                                Koa brkyski                                                          loss occurs in Grad Beograd, which is not surprising, given
                                                                                                                                                                                the economic importance of the province.




                                                                   1




                         120
                                                                                                         EARTHQUAKE
                                    CURE,PRBABLIT
                               EXCEDANE    01S ND 086EXCEEDANCE                                                     EXCEDANE PRBABLITYCURE,
                                                                                                                 PROBABILITY CURVE, 215   ND 280
                                                                                                                                    2015 AND 2080                                  he exceedance probability curves display the GDP
                                                                                                                                                                                  TaffecIted by, respectively, flosand earthquakes for
                                                                   25                         70                                                                                varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different
                                                                                              70
                                                                                                              ~        0tim                                                        e p eri ods are shown. A solid ine de picts th e affected
                                                                                               2n        16                                                                      ~~G
                                                                                                                                                                                 DP for 2 015   c onditi on s. A d iagonally stri ped ban d d epicts
                                                                                          2   SO                                                                                the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate
                                                                                                              ,2                                                                and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if Ser-
                                                                        2080                  40bia                                                                                 had experien cedi a 100-year return period flood event
                                                                   10                     0   ;0                                                                                in 20 15, the affected GDP would have been an estimated $4
                                                                                                   "0         I                         2080                                    billion. In 2080, however the affected GDP from the same
                                     2015                                                     20                                                            -type ud
                                                                                                                                                         '9/VTD97K;  Danellaf        cfed,
                                                                                                                                                                                    of                range fromand
                                                                                                                                                                                                 trEpevl,fd
                                                                                                                                                                                        event would                 lAiepFarthquake
                                                                                                                                                                                                                 about                 o
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       $7 billion to about
                                                                           510                                                          2015                                    $20 billion. IfSerbia had experienced'a250-year earth-
                                                                                                                                          ___________________quake                     event in 2015, the estimated affected GDP would
                                                                                                    10            50          t   050                                           have been about$10 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from
                                                                                                    Returnperiod (                                                              the same type of event would range from about $25 billion
                                                              10       2       1k0.rp10                            2              1                                  04         to $60 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, and
    Pro%babbilitt
             (%)bability                                                                                                                                                        the increase in exposed assets.

                                                                                      ..........--.......--------------..-.--.-...------------------
All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: Internationial Disaster Database (lniversitfl Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat be; the National Geophysical
Data Ceter/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Cete, NOAA), doi:107f                                                         ate          p ad n a eion                     e
RiskAssessment Country and Province Profiling,"final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historicsa eventseave beea i2lated0to 201F                                                                       xLS$