The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) AFRICA | Kenya | Social Protection & Jobs Global Practice | Requesting Unit: AFCE2 | Responsible Unit: HAFS1 IBRD/IDA | Program-for-Results Financing | FY 2014 | Team Leader(s): Yuliya Smolyar, Iftikhar Malik Seq No: 11 | ARCHIVED on 28-Oct-2019 | ISR38557 | Created by: Emma S. Mistiaen on 13-Sep-2019 | Modified by: Yuliya Smolyar on 18-Oct-2019 Program Development Objectives Program Development Objective (from Program Appraisal Document) To support the Republic of Kenya's efforts to establish an effective national safety net program for poor and vulnerable. Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Implementation Status and Key Decisions The Government continues to make progress on the implementation of the National Safety Net Program for Results and disbursements against the targets are mostly on track. The Government continues to demonstrate strong leadership on critical issues for the program, such as greater fiduciary oversight on the program through a comprehensive action plan and stronger citizen engagement through the development and implementation of a Beneficiary Outreach Strategy. A new account-based payment solution has also been rolled out. This solution gives beneficiaries choice in the service provider, making the payment transfer mechanism more convenient and accessible and providing them access to bank accounts supporting opportunities for greater savings. Plans have also been developed for expansion of coverage of beneficiaries. Two additional Disbursement Linked Result has been achieved since the previous status review. These include: (1) implementation of the Beneficiary Outreach Strategy in 20 sub-counties and (2) finalization of a module for complimentary service provision in the Single Registry. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P131305 IDA-52870 Effective USD 250.00 250.00 0.00 195.46 39.54 83% P131305 IDA-59810 Effective USD 50.00 50.00 0.00 30.48 20.52 60% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P131305 IDA-52870 Effective 23-Jul-2013 09-Sep-2013 16-Oct-2013 31-Mar-2018 30-Jun-2020 P131305 IDA-59810 Effective 26-Apr-2017 27-Apr-2017 02-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2020 30-Jun-2020 10/28/2019 Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) DLI Disbursement Achievement Disbursed amount in Disbursement % DLI ID DLI Type Description Coc DLI Amount Status Coc for DLI Loan: IDA52870-001 Extent to which add HH 1a Regular XDR 6,800,000.00 Fully Achieved 5,139,905.32 1.3 % are enrolled NSNP Extent to which add HH Partially 1b Regular XDR 60,000,000.00 59,463,466.21 1% are enrolled to N Achieved Extnt to whc Prgrm Benef 2a Regular XDR 3,340,000.00 Fully Achieved 3,510,093.57 1% cnfrm to Trgt C Extnt to whc Prgrm Benef 2b Regular XDR 3,340,000.00 Fully Achieved 3,339,999.98 1% cnfrm to Trgt C Exnt to whc Sngl Rsgtsy is 3a Regular XDR 10,000,000.00 Fully Achieved 9,962,596.43 1% oprtnl&MIS Exnt to whc Sngl Rsgtsy is 3b Regular XDR 6,680,000.00 Fully Achieved 6,725,981.54 1% oprtnl&MIS Exnt to whc NSNP pymt Partially 4 Regular XDR 10,000,000.00 9,977,982.86 1% md elecnclly Achieved Exnt to whc pymts made 5 Regular XDR 10,000,000.00 Fully Achieved 9,822,491.59 1% on time Ext to whc cmplnts&grvnc 6a Regular XDR 10,020,000.00 Fully Achieved 3,403,692.35 2.9 % mchnsm in plc Ext to whc cmplnts&grvnc Partially 6b Regular XDR 13,350,000.00 11,026,074.47 1.2 % mchnsm in plc Achieved Exnt to whc Systm fr 7 Regular XDR 13,350,000.00 Not Achieved 0.00 Scling up NSNP Exnt to whc Repint adptd 8a Regular XDR 3,340,000.00 Fully Achieved 3,338,958.57 1% Consdtn Strtgy Exnt to whc Repint adptd 8b Regular XDR 6,680,000.00 Fully Achieved 6,760,859.45 1% Consdtn Strtgy Exnt to whc HSNP is 9 Regular XDR 3,340,000.00 Fully Achieved 3,360,082.22 1% financed Extnt to whc a sys fr recert 2c Regular XDR 6,660,000.00 Not Achieved 0.00 NSNP benefi Loan: IDA59810-001 Additonal Households Partially 1 Regular XDR 27,950,000.00 15,113,570.49 1.8 % enrolled to NSNP Achieved Recipient shows NSNP Partially 10 Regular XDR 2,250,000.00 1,499,857.86 1.5 % Benef. acces to CSP Achieved Fiduciary systems NSNP Partially 11 Regular XDR 6,600,000.00 5,284,135.91 1.2 % stenghtened Achieved Program Action Plan 10/28/2019 Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) Revise OMs to respond to findings of the addendum to the Technical, and Integrated Fiduciary Assessments and the Action Description original ESSA Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Technical Client Recurrent Yearly Completed Completion Update of the Operations Manual if/as needed. Measurement Comments Improve delivery of payments to beneficiaries: (i) reach agreement with Treasury on timeliness and flow of funds, (ii) Action Description regularly monitoring transfer steps against schedule, (iii) strengthening internal controls, (iv) developing long term PSP strategy Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Fiduciary Systems Client Recurrent Continuous In Progress Completion Regular payments to beneficiaries. Measurement Timeliness of payments continue to be a challenge for the program but is expected to improve once the new payment Comments mechanism is fully rolled out. Action Description Implement IFAR recommendations with respect to procurement Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Fiduciary Systems Client Recurrent Continuous In Progress Completion Timely procurements. Measurement 80 percent of agreed critical FM actions have been implemented and further progress has been made on the Comments remaining 20 percent. Development and implementation of a time-bound FM action plan to comprehensively strengthen the fiduciary Action Description controls in the NSNP Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Fiduciary Systems Client Recurrent Yearly In Progress Completion Implementation of 100 percent of the agreed priority FM actions. Measurement 80 percent of agreed critical FM actions have been implemented and further progress has been made on the Comments remaining 20 percent 10/28/2019 Page 3 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) Finalize the EFC framework and action plan to prevent, detect, and deter EFC and ensure alignment with the FM Action Description action plan Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Technical Client Due Date 31-Dec-2019 In Progress Completion Implementation of 100 percent of the agreed critical FM actions. Measurement The EFC actions have been integrated within the revised OM as well as in the Consolidated Action Plan, which Comments includes agreed critical FM actions. Action Description Finalization of a harmonized targeting tool and update of the PMT, as and when new KIHBS data become available Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Technical Client Due Date 28-Jun-2019 In Progress Completion Updated HTM using new KIHBS data Measurement Comments HTM has been finalized, but needs updating with the new KIHBS data. Ongoing TA for revision of the HTM. Ensure financial allocations to the NSNP according to the program MTEF are included in the sectoral MTEF and Action Description annual budgets Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Other Client Recurrent Yearly In Progress Completion Adequate funding for implementation and achievement of results for FY20. Measurement Implementing agencies have communicated budget shortfalls with NT for FY20 and discussions are ongoing to Comments secure adequate funding for FY20 Action Description Ensure collaboration with the NRB to enable issuance of ID cards to eligible beneficiaries who do not have ID cards Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Other Client Recurrent Continuous Delayed Completion Discussions held with NRB. Measurement Discussions with NRB have been limited. Ministry needs to commence these discussions this FY to prepare for NEDI Comments expansion. These discussions will commence during an upcoming techncial mission end of October 2019 10/28/2019 Page 4 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) Ensure adequate implementation capacity nationwide and more specifically in the NEDI counties by (i) developing an Action Description implementation plan and (ii) implementation of the same Source DLI# Responsibility Timing Timing Value Status Technical Client Due Date 31-Oct-2018 In Progress Completion Implementation plan completed and expansion in NEDI concluded. Measurement Implementation for NSNP expansion in NEDI counties has been delayed since the NT has not allocated sufficient Comments resources for NEDI expansion. Strengthening of implementation capacity is ongoing with SDSP having deployed a number of officers for NSNP. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- Moderate Moderate Stakeholders -- Low Low Other -- Substantial Substantial Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To support the Republic of Kenya's efforts to establish effective NSNP for poor and vulnerable HHs IN00744041 ►Net change in beneficiary household monthly per adult equivalent consumption expenditure (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 66.00 150.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 10/28/2019 Page 5 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) This indicator was supposed to be measured by the CT-OVC Impact Evaluation and the HSNP Impact Evaluation. Unfortunately, recent results from the CT-OVC Impact Evaluation show that due to a number of reasons (surrounding the quality of the consumption data collected for the end line, as food consumption is likely to be significantly underreported as well as the high attrition rate), it is difficult to detect the true impact of the CT-OVC program on the household food consumption. However, the HSNP Impact Evaluation, the Propensity-score matching (PSM) results confirm an impact on Comments monthly food expenditure, showing that households that have received a regular HSNP payment experience an increase in monthly per adult equivalent food expenditure of around KES 66. However, the spill-over effects observed in the HSNP mean that it is likely that the impact on consumption for HSNP beneficiaries is underestimated. For every shilling injected into the local economy by the HSNP, total incomes are raised by somewhere between 1.38 and 1.93 shillings. Most of this additional income goes to non-beneficiaries of the program, hence producing spill-overs. IN00744042 ►Number of NSNP beneficiaries, by sex (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1,650,000.00 4,520,000.00 3,894,990.00 4,280,000.00 Date 28-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2019 70+ were 515,279 out of 1030822 beneficiaries of Jan-Feb 2019 CCTP payroll which is 49.9%. The current number of 70+ beneficiaries was not available and so the percentage of 70+ from Jan-Feb payroll is used to Comments calculate the number of beneficiaries from May-June CCTP payroll and then HSNP beneficiaries are added on top. IN00744043 ►System for recertification of NSNP beneficiaries is in place (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Completion of the rollout of the Value No In progress In progress recertification plan in at least 20 subcounties Date 28-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 31-Dec-2019 The recertification plan/strategy has been adopted and SAU expects that the roll-out will take place in FY20. Comments IN00744044 ►% of all payments are made on time to Payment Service Providers for transfer to Program Beneficiaries (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 12.00 7.60 53.77 90.00 Date 05-Apr-2017 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments IN00744045 ►Beneficiaries of social safety net programs (Number, Corporate) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1,650,000.00 4,520,000.00 3,894,990.00 4,280,000.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments 70+ were 515,279 out of 1030822 beneficiaries of Jan-Feb 2019 CCTP payroll which is 49.9%. The current number of 70+ beneficiaries was not available and so the percentage of 70+ from Jan-Feb payroll is used to 10/28/2019 Page 6 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) calculate the number of beneficiaries from May-June CCTP payroll and then HSNP beneficiaries are added on top. IN00744046 Beneficiaries of social safety net programs - Female (Number, Corporate Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 825,000.00 2,260,000.00 2,260,000.00 2,140,000.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2019 Intermediate Results Indicators by Results Areas Expanding cash transfer programs to promote more comprehensive and equitable coverage IN00744047 ►Number of households paid for by the Government (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 114,384.00 1,234,239.00 1,167,834.00 792,000.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2019 The OPCT has been expanded to become a universal cash transfer for anyone 70 years of age or older. Even though the benefit is individually targeted and not poverty targeted, for reporting purposes on this indicator, an individual enrolled in 70+ is considered a household paid for by Government. Comments And at the time of reporting, 100% of NSNP households are financed by GoK. The number has gone down since beneficiaries are being migrated to new payment mechanism and a small case load is still pending. Strengthening program systems to ensure good governance IN00744049 ►% of beneficiaries who know correct program transfer amount for the program in which they are enrolled (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 56.30 86.00 86.00 70.00 Date 05-Apr-2017 31-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 Achieved as part of PIBS II. Comments IN00744051 ►% of beneficiaries for whom payments are made electronically using Two-Factor Authentication (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 40.00 100.00 100.00 90.00 Date 28-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments IN00744053 ►Grievance and Case Management mechanisms for the Cash Transfer Programs are functional (Text, Custom) 10/28/2019 Page 7 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target BoS implementation Beneficiary Outreach BoS implementation Value Not in place completed in 30 sub- Strategy implemented ongoing counties. in at least 20 counties Date 28-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments IN00744055 ►% of Program Beneficiaries who can name two means of making complaint (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 8.80 30.40 30.40 40.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 31-Dec-2019 PIBSII reported 30.4 - but DLI requires all programs to be above 30 percent which was not achieved. Comments IN00744056 ►Single Registry is operational and progam MISs use the Standards for Internal Payroll Controls (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value Yes Yes Yes Yes Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments Haromonizing cash transfer programs to increase the coherence of the safety net sector IN00744048 ►% of NSNP funding financed by the Government (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 41.00 96.70 100.00 96.00 Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 The NDMA has taken over financing for all of the HSNP beneficiaries as part of the July/August 2019 Comments payment cycle. This means that all of the NSNP cash transfers are now paid for by the Government. IN00744050 ►Number of households per year paid through the NSNP out of NDEF (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target No targets as this indicator will only be NDEF not yet Value n/a NDEF not yet operational measured when the operational early warning system triggers a response Date 26-Jun-2013 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 The amendments to the NDMA act have been approved by Parliament and is awaiting Presidential assent. Comments IN00744052 10/28/2019 Page 8 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) ►NSNP beneficiaries' access to complementary social and productive services is promoted (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target agreements signed Complimentary module with at least two has been completed partners providing Value n/a In progress and SPS is working relevant towards signing of two complementary agreements. services to NSNP beneficiary households Date 05-Apr-2017 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 Complementary module expected to be finalized before end of FY19. Comments IN00744054 ►Fiduciary systems for NSNP has been strengthened (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 80.00 80.00 100.00 Date 05-Apr-2017 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 31-Dec-2019 Comments Disbursement Linked Indicators DLI_IND_TABLE ►DLI 1 Additional households are enrolled in the NSNP (Intermediate Outcome, 135,000,000.00, 85%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value 0.00 186,000.00 186,000.00 345,000.00 Date -- 31-Jan-2019 31-Jan-2019 -- The Government exceeded the target for this DLI. However, for the purpose of the DLI disbursements the target was 135K (under original IDA credit) plus 70K (AF IDA credit) = 205K additional households. The Government has achieved the planned 135K expansion planned for the original PForR (worth around US$ 100 million) as well as taken over financing of 51K households (40K CT-OVC and 11K HSNP). The remaining Comments households to be taken over or enrolled is therefore 59K (50K new households and 9K taking over financing for HSNP). Number of existing households in the program is much higher, but we have here amended the reporting and confirm that for the purpose of the DLI the "actual current" value is 186K. ►DLI 2 System for recertification of NSNP beneficiaries is in place (Outcome, 15,000,000.00, 33%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value No No Yes Yes Date -- 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 -- The recertification plan was adopted in June 2019. Roll out of the implementation of the plan is expected in Comments FY20. 10/28/2019 Page 9 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) ►DLI 3 Single Registry is fully operational with program MISs using agreed standards for internal payroll controls (Intermediate Outcome, 25,000,000.00, 100%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value Yes Yes Yes Yes Date -- 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- Comments Achieved ►DLI 4 Percent of NSNP payments made electroincally using two-factor authentication (Intermediate Outcome, 15,000,000.00, 100%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value 40.00 100.00 100.00 90.00 Date -- 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- Comments Achieved ►DLI 5 Percent of all payments are made on time to Payment Service Providers for transfer of Program Beneficiaries (Outcome, 15,000,000.00, 100%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value 12.00 7.60 53.77 -- Date -- 31-Jan-2019 30-Jun-2019 -- This is a significant increase from the percentage made on time in the previous ISR (only 7.6 percent) all these Comments payments have been made using the new payment solution for the SAU programs. ►DLI 6 Grievance and Case Management mechanisms for the Cash Transfer Programs are functional (Intermediate Outcome, 35,000,000.00, 61%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Beneficiary awareness of Value Not in place In Progress In Progress. transfer amount and G&CM system Date -- 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- The G&CM system is functional nationally, and efforts to develop a decentralized G&CM MIS module are in progress, after which it will be rolled out nationally. The Beneficiary Outreach Strategy has been developed Comments and implemented in 30 sub-counties in 4 counties. ►DLI 7 System for scaling up the NSNP has been adopted (Intermediate Outcome, 20,000,000.00, 0%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 10/28/2019 Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report National Safety Net Program for Results (P131305) Value No No No Yes Date -- 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 -- The amendment to the NDMA Act is awaiting Presidential assent. Comments ►DLI 8 Government has adopted the consolidation strategy (Intermediate Outcome, 15,000,000.00, 100%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value No Yes Yes Yes Date -- 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- Comments Achieved ►DLI 9 HSNP is financed (Intermediate Outcome, 5,000,000.00, 100%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value No Yes Yes Yes Date -- 31-Jan-2019 16-Sep-2019 -- Comments Achieved ►DLI 10 NSNP beneficiaries' access to complementary social and productive services is promoted (Intermediate Outcome, 3,000,000.00, 68%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value Not in place In progress In progress -- Date -- 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 -- Complementary Services module in the SR has been finalized. Comments ►DLI 11 Fiduciary systems for NSNP have been strengthened (Intermediate Outcome, 9,000,000.00, 41%) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) December 2019 Value 0.00 80.00 80.00 100.00 Date -- 31-Jan-2019 08-Oct-2019 -- Comments 10/28/2019 Page 11 of 11