83184 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Mexico CAS/CPS Year: FY08 CAS/CPS Period: FY08 – FY13 CASCR/CPSCR Review Period: FY08-FY13 Date of this review: December 2, 2013 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY08-FY13 Mexico Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of FY08 and CPS Progress Report of FY10, and assesses the CPS Completion Report (CPSCR). The strategy was jointly implemented by the IBRD and IFC, and this review covers the joint program of the two institutions. ii. The CPS outlined Mexico’s development objectives and the general principles for WBG engagement, but did not define a WBG strategy – there is no articulation of the specific CPS objectives to be achieved during the strategy period and what the WBG would do, based on its comparative advantage, to achieve them. It referred to six areas where the WBG had maintained a policy dialogue: (i) accelerating growth, (ii) improving competitiveness, (iii) promoting social inclusion and reducing poverty, (iv) developing infrastructure and assuring energy security, (v) strengthening institutions, and (vi) assuring environmental sustainability. Presumably, although not explicitly in the CPS, these were the areas where the WBG would support Mexico’s plans. The CPS results framework did not provide a results chain linking WBG interventions to CPS objectives, but only a results matrix listing “examples of WBG activities” in the dialogue areas. There were no outcome indicators for measuring progress. The CPSPR explicitly adopted the above areas as the CPS strategic pillars and provided a results matrix with the expected outcomes and indicators. However, the CPSPR was backward looking, focusing on the progress that had been achieved up to that point, with little discussion of the WBG program and few outcome targets going beyond 2010. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of the CPS as moderately satisfactory, below the CPSCR rating of satisfactory. WBG support contributed to Mexico’s effective response to the global financial crisis – adopting countercyclical policies, strengthening financial sector stability and financial inclusion, enhancing short-term employment support programs, and further liberalizing trade when other countries were resorting to protectionist policies. Bank support also contributed to the good progress in improving access to early childhood education and learning outcomes in secondary education, expanding tertiary education among low income students, promoting health and education investment among poor people through Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program, increasing health insurance coverage for the poor and informal workers, and developing a regulatory framework to adapt to climate change, massive urban transport, and renewable energies to reduce CO2 emissions. iv. However, some longer-term reforms sought by the CPS, such as fiscal sustainability and labor market reforms, are pending, and the WBG appear to have played a small role in strengthening the capacity of Mexico’s health system to control epidemic waves. Moreover, progress was slow in providing housing finance to low- and moderate-income families, increasing energy access in indigenous rural areas, and developing tools for sustainable and efficient water and sanitation service provisions by local authorities. The WBG intervened on multiple fronts for long-term environmental sustainability, but the evidence of results is not clear due to a lack of relevant indicators for measuring the impact of the wide range of WBG activities. Indeed, many CPS CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CASPR Review Coordinator Juan J. Fernandez-Ansola, Marcelo Selowsky, Xiaolun Sun, Senior Evaluation Consultant, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Officer, IEGCC Takatoshi Kamezawa, Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group objectives, including those pertaining to the IT industry, the use of CDM to foster changes, and most of those under Pillar V, were vague and overly broad. This coupled with a poor monitoring framework with irrelevant indicators makes it difficult to demonstrate the effectiveness of WBG interventions in a large number of areas. v. IEG rates WBG performance as moderately satisfactory, below the CPSCR rating of satisfactory. The Mexican government had a very clear development strategy and the Bank decided to support that strategy. Consequently, the areas of WBG engagement were well aligned with the country’s program and addressed its key development issues. With its strong focus on flexibility, the CPS program responded quickly to changing client demand during the global financial crisis. The choice of instruments was sensible given the country context. However, the CPS equated supporting Mexico’s own development plan with articulating no specific CPS objectives to be achieved during the strategy period. As such, the CPS focused overwhelmingly on the modality of WBG assistance (e.g., through large annual DPLs), but provided no guidance on what it expected to achieve through this assistance. Moreover, the CPS provided no results framework that could guide the implementation of the CPS program. vi. The CPSPR addressed this issue to some extent, but was mostly backward looking with little discussion of the CPS program and few outcome targets going beyond FY11. Many of the CPSPR objectives were poorly formulated, with vague and sometimes overlapping scope. A large number of the outcome indicators were of little relevance to the underlying objectives. Such a design deficiency may have impeded the ability of the WBG to achieve some of the CPS objectives. The AAA program was tailored to country demands and supported the lending program. The CPS devoted substantial attention to IBRD-IFC collaboration, mapping out the areas where the two institutions would coordinate their programs. Other development partners’ interventions were not considered explicitly in the CPS. A number of domestic and external risks were identified, but no mitigation measures were proposed. By contrast, the CPS articulated a clear approach for dealing with reduced demand for Bank financing and slow government progress under large DPLs. The Bank’s Mexico portfolio compared favorably to regional averages, suggesting adequate implementation support. On the other hand, IFC’s operations, which could have been more counter-cyclical to support Mexico during the crisis, encountered serious difficulties during CPS period and did not have a sound exit strategy when it was called for. There was adequate attention to safeguard and fiduciary issues, and good collaboration within the WBG. vii. The CPSCR outlined eight lessons, which are sensible even if the list does not give a sense of priority. In IEG’s view, a key deficiency of the CPS was the notion that a flexible and client-driven strategy would not benefit from an analysis of the WBG’s comparative advantage and a clear articulation of the specific CPS objectives within the country’s longer-term strategy. Although the importance of a strong results framework is recognized, the relevant lesson in the CPSCR is more about corporate requirements than what the Mexico CPS should have done but did not. The lack of a results framework, which reflects the lack of clear CPS objectives, deprived the WBG of a management tool for managing risks and accounting for results. A lesson from IFC’s investments with the housing finance companies and housing developers is the need to have clear exit strategies for downside and execute them so as to minimize losses from non-performing investments. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group 3. WBG Strategy Summary Overview of CPS Relevance: Country Context: 1. Together with Brazil and Indonesia, Mexico is one of the top three borrowers from IBRD. Mexico entered the 2008 global financial crisis with strong public and private sector balance sheets, and a well-capitalized banking sector. Nonetheless, with more than three quarters of its exports directed to the U.S., Mexico was severely affected and its GDP fell by 6.5 percent in 2009, more than in any other Latin American country. A strong initial fiscal position allowed a countercyclical fiscal response, while precautionary credit lines from the U.S. Federal Reserve and the IMF as well as financial support from the Bank served to assuage concerns about external financing after the crisis. GDP recovered strongly (5.6 percent) in 2010 and growth averaged about 4 percent annually in 2011-12. Despite increased spending on social programs, the crisis and its aftermath led to an increase in poverty from 47.4 percent in 2008 to 51.3 percent in 2010 (according to the broadest national definition (CONEVAL) of poverty headcount). Over the longer term, Mexico will face fiscal challenges arising from diminishing oil revenues and increasing age-related spending. 2. The National Development Plan (NDP) 2007-2012 was adopted in December 2006. Under the overarching theme of sustainable human development, the NDP had five pillars: (a) rule of law and public safety, (b) economic competitiveness and generation of jobs, (c) equality of opportunities, (d) environmental sustainability, and (e) effective democracy and responsible foreign affairs. The deteriorating socioeconomic environment in 2008 led to a refocus of the NDP priorities under a Ten Point Program in early 2009 to confront the crisis. Objectives of the WBG Strategy: 3. The CPS outlined the principles of Bank Group engagement, but did not define a WBG strategy per se – there is no articulation of the specific CPS objectives to be achieved during the strategy period and what the WBG would do, based on its comparative advantage, to achieve them. It referred to six areas where the WBG had maintained a policy dialogue: (i) accelerating growth, (ii) improving competitiveness, (iii) promoting social inclusion and reducing poverty, (iv) developing infrastructure and assuring energy security, (v) strengthening institutions, and (vi) assuring environmental sustainability. Presumably, although not explicitly in the CPS, these were the areas where the WBG would support Mexico’s plans. The CPS results framework did not provide a results chain linking WBG interventions to CPS objectives and to Mexico’s longer-term goals, but only a results matrix mapping “examples of WBG activities” to Mexico’s own development objectives in the dialogue areas. There were no outcome indicators for measuring progress. The CPSPR explicitly adopted the thematic areas as the CPS strategic pillars and provided a results matrix that defined the expected outcomes and introduced outcome indicators. However, the CPSPR was backward looking, focusing on the progress that had been achieved up to that point, with little discussion of the WBG program and few outcome targets going beyond 2010. Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The key areas of WBG engagement were central to Mexico’s strategy and based on the preferences of the Mexican authorities. The strategy was highly flexible, and was able to adjust to the financial crisis both in terms of priorities and financing arrangements. While relevant and responsive, the strategy was exceedingly vague at CPS stage – under the broad objective of supporting Mexico’s development plans, there was no articulation of what specific objectives the WBG was attempting to achieve during the CPS period. Internal WBG coordination was highlighted in the CPS, but other partners’ programs were not discussed; it is thus not clear how they influenced the selection of WBG engagement areas. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group 5. Relevance of Design. Recognizing the high capacity of the Mexican government and its clear development plan, the CPS program was designed to support the government’s strategy with fast disbursing annual Development Policy Loans (DPLs), accompanied by some investment loans in environment and financing at state levels, and knowledge services. While the choice of instruments seems appropriate in the country context, it is impossible to assess whether the WBG program would be able to bring about the expected outcomes as the latter were not defined in the CPS. Although selectivity was a key principle of WBG engagement, it was considered only in the context of the choice of instruments, not the selection of engagement areas. There was no analysis of the WBG’s comparative advantage in any given area, nor an identification of the priority areas to be supported by the multisectoral DPLs. Consequently, while the CPS program was responsive to client demand, it was not sufficiently focused or results-oriented. The CPSPR provided some clarity on the strategic objectives and the WBG program, but it was essentially backward looking: it rationalized what was being done (or had already been achieved), but remained vague in terms of the objectives and targets for FY12-FY13, the remainder of the strategy period. The CPS clearly defined the modality for IBRD and IFC collaboration even if the expected outcomes of such collaboration were not defined. The AAA program, including reimbursable advisory services, was tailored to country demands, supported the lending program, and responded to emerging opportunities. 6. Strength of the Results Framework. The results framework was weak. As the CPS did not identify any objectives that the WBG aimed to achieve in support of the country development goals through its interventions, there is no results chain in the CPS to speak of. The CPSPR addressed this deficiency to some extent, introducing a results matrix that showed the linkage between WBG activities and the expected outcomes and the country’s goals. However, this framework remained weak as it was backward looking, with many outcomes and targets reflecting what had been achieved up to that point, and most of the indicators lacked baselines, targets, and a monitoring timeframe. Moreover, in some instances, the outcome indicators were of limited relevance to the objectives for which they were to measure achievement. Finally, the results matrix did not adequately reflect the extensive collaboration between IBRD and IFC – although IFC activities were listed, their impact was not captured in the expected outcomes or the indicators in most cases. As such, the results framework was not a useful tool for facilitating strategic decision making, or guiding program implementation. 7. Risk Identification and mitigation. The CPS identified several domestic, external and CPS implementation risks. It discussed the government’s mitigation measures to deal with domestic (social cohesion, competitiveness, and natural calamities) and external shocks, but proposed no WBG strategy for managing such risks. On the other hand, the CPS had a clear plan to respond to the risks of curtailed borrowing from Mexico (via reduced non-lending services and increased FBS) and of poor progress in the government’s program to support a large annual DPL (via reduced DPL or more focused SIL). What was not considered was the impact of these risks on CPS results if they were to materialize. For example, reducing lending and non-lending services in face of curtailed demand and poor performance may help protect WBG portfolio performance, but would likely have a negative impact on the achievement of CPS objectives and contribution to the country goals. Overview of CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 8. IBRD had 17 ongoing investment operations totaling $2.2 billion at the start of the CPS. The portfolio was spread evenly across sectors, and complemented by 23 trust funded activities for $184 million. During the CPS period, IBRD approved $14.8 billion in new commitments for 34 projects - 13 development policy loans (DPLs) totaling $7.6 billion and 21 investment operations totaling $7.2 billion (including five additional financing for existing projects). In the first three years of the CPS, IBRD approved $10.5 billion in 22 projects, compared with $2.9 billion envisaged in the CPS base case, which foresaw a climate change DPL for $500 million (deferred drawdown option) at CPS approval and further lending of $800 million a year for FY08-FY10. The substantially higher actual For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group commitments reflected additional IBRD financing in response to the 2008 global crisis, through several unplanned DPLs to support countercyclical fiscal policies, social safety nets, access to mortgage lending by the poor, disaster surveillance, and H1N1 influenza. Trust funds financed 32 additional activities for a total of $358 million. The WB Business Warehouse shows 25 projects totaling $3.3 billion that were proposed for FY08-FY11 (mainly FY08-FY09), but eventually dropped. The CPSCR does not comment on these dropped projects. 9. IBRD disbursement ratios were consistently above LCR and Bank averages throughout the CPS period, especially in FY09 and FY10. With 18.7 percent of the projects at risk, the Mexican portfolio performance was slightly below LCR and overall Bank averages (20.2 percent and 19.4 percent, respectively). On a commitment basis, however, the Mexican portfolio out-performed its peers by a wide margin, with only 6.2 percent of the commitment at risk vs. 15.4 percent for LCR and 16.9 percent for the Bank. IEG reviewed the ICRs of 23 projects that closed during the CPS period and rated 71.4 percent of them as moderately satisfactory or better and 81.8 percent as having a moderate or lower risk to development outcomes. These success rates compare favorably with LCR and Bank averages. Finally, almost all ongoing (27 out of 29) projects are progressing well according to management, although the performance gap between the ongoing and closed projects suggests that there may be a need for greater attention to identifying and addressing implementation risks. 10. During the CPS period, IFC made net commitments of $2.0 billion, of which 65 percent ($1.3 billion) was approved in the final year of the CPS (FY13). By contrast, during the financial crisis, a mere $75.3 million was committed in FY08, while a negative net commitment of $44 million was made in FY09. Unlike in other upper middle income countries like Brazil, IFC investment in the Mexican financial sector was small ($158 million) due in part to the poor financial performance of IFC’s housing sector investments, which are all in IFC’s work-out unit of special operations. Consequently, the focus of IFC investment changed significantly during the CPS period from financial markets to manufacturing, agribusiness, and services, which accounted for 83 percent of the total net commitment, especially in health and education ($1.1 billion, or 54 percent of total). 11. IEG reviewed five Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) and two Project Evaluation Summaries (PES) at project completion. Of these 7 projects, the development outcomes were rated as highly successful (1), successful (2), mostly successful (2), and mostly unsuccessful (2). As measured by the DOTS development outcome ratings, however, IFC’s success rates in Mexico (between 43 to 65 percent) were below the un-weighted averages of IFC (66 percent) and LAC (74 percent). Even excluding the poorly performing housing sector, the success rates of the Mexico portfolio was below the IFC average during FY08-FY11, although FY13 saw significant improvement in the portfolio. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 12. IBRD delivered 15 Economic and Sector Works (ESW) and 56 Technical Assistance (TA) tasks during the CPS period, including a large number of reimbursable advisory services. A key innovation is the development of the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the government as an instrument for coordinating AAAs around critical development challenges. It was explored as an annual work program in the CPS, and evolved to a multi-year planning tool in the CPSPR. The CPSCR reports that this approach put an emphasis on the synergies and linkages between the various activities related to a theme, covered a two- to three-year time horizon, and had dissemination and client feedback as an inherent part of the instrument. Eight such MOUs were underway when the CPSPR was approved. Typically, the analytical pieces prepared under each MOU would be used to inform the Bank’s lending projects. The CPSCR does not mention how many MOUs were developed in all, or discuss how they succeeded or failed to play their intended roles. The Mexico experimentation would be highly valuable to other country programs. 13. During the CPS period, IFC approved a total of 14 Advisory Services (AS) projects for $7.6 million. Seven of these were approved in FY08, but only three took place after the CPSPR. Over 50 percent of the AS funding went to six Access to Finance (A2F) projects, while a third financed three Public and Private Partnership activities. IEG reviewed four closed AS projects For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group during the CPS period and rated the development effectiveness as satisfactory in one project, unsatisfactory in two projects, and too early to judge for the fourth. An A2F project with MicroCred Mexico was unsatisfactory since this microfinance start-up closed its operation in 2010 due to poor performance. With the negative influence of global financial crisis and the swine flu outbreak in Mexico, no Mexican companies participated in the AS project that was supposed to help improve its corporate governance practices in Mexico. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 14. Official Development Assistance (ODA) provided by DAC countries and net disbursements from multilaterals were relatively small. The CPSCR notes that strong collaboration existed with other international financial institutions - primarily the IMF and the Inter-American Development Bank (IADB), bilaterals (e.g., Agence Française de Développement), civil societies (e.g., Transparency International), and the private sector and foundations. However, the CPSCR only discusses the Bank’s collaboration with the IADB in the co-financing of the Oportunidades program, and briefly mentions that IFC mobilized $790 million from private sector partners during the CPS period. There is no discussion of what worked well or less well in the various partnerships. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 15. The CPS presented a clear approach for dealing with these issues, but the CPSCR provides no comment or assessments. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar I: Accelerating Growth 16. Under Pillar I, initially the CPS aimed to broadly support a set of long-term reforms in investment climate, infrastructure, human capital and innovation. With the advent of the crisis, the focus shifted to stabilizing the fiscal accounts, reactivating the economy, and accelerating longer-term reforms where possible. The four components of the Economic Policies in Response to the Crisis DPL (FY10) underpinned the four objectives defined in the CPSPR, with the DPL’s prior actions selected as outcome indicators. 17. Support countercyclical policies in 2009 while adopting measures to enhance medium term fiscal sustainability for 2010 and beyond. To support economic activity in view of a looming recession, the government frontloaded its public expenditure and investment programs in 2009 with support of the Economic Policies in Response to the Crisis DPL (FY10). A multiannual fiscal policy framework would also enhance non-oil revenue to support fiscal sustainability by creating new taxes. However, as a result of Congress’ opposition to some of the new tax measures (a prior action for the DPL), the share of non-oil taxes in GDP (outcome indicator) did not improve by 2010 and the slowdown in growth may have also influenced the results. However, the CPSCR does not discuss the cyclical and structural factors that may have influenced developments in this area, particularly in the post-2010 period. Therefore, a medium term trend under a gradual recovery cannot be established, while fiscal sustainability may remain a challenge because of the expected decline in oil revenue and increase in age-related spending in the medium term. The Bank continued to support Mexico on fiscal management through the Results-Based Management and Budgeting project (FY09) and Fiscal Risk-Management Development Policy Loan (FY12). (Mostly Achieved). 18. Implement regulatory reforms to foster financial sector access, consumer protection, and stability. Financial inclusion increased significantly and the target of increasing the number of financial outlets was exceeded by a wide margin. The authorities issued enabling regulations in a number of areas that permitted a broad range of new business models for financial services. Moreover, according to the Financial System Stability Assessment (FSA) prepared jointly by the Bank and the IMF in December 2011, the Mexican banking system is profitable, liquid, and well For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group capitalized, and stress tests suggest that it is able to withstand severe shocks. Indeed, the strength of capital buffers had persuaded the authorities to introduce Basel III capital requirements in 2012, well ahead of other countries. The CPSCR does not report on the regulatory reforms implemented for consumer protection, but IEG’s ICR review of the Economic Policies in Response to the Crisis DPL (FY10) notes that as a prior action, several laws (Law Protecting Users of Financial Services, Law of Credit Institutions, and Capital Markets Law) were amended, which enhanced consumer protection, and the quality of information provided by financial institutions to users of credit cards and mortgage loans. The Bank supported Mexico with a number of interventions including the Finance for Growth DPL, Access to Rural Finance Loan, Private Housing Finance Markets Strengthening Project (FY09), The Savings and Credit Sector Consolidation and Financial Inclusion Project and the Strengthening the Business Environment for Enhanced Economic Growth. IFC’s work complemented the Bank’s efforts in strengthening financial sector stability. One of IFC’s major interventions in the financial sector was a US$150 million equity investment in Banorte, the largest locally owned bank in Mexico. Although IFC’s stake was less than 5 percent of the bank’s equity, its involvement had a positive signaling effect for other investors and enhanced confidence in the financial system. (Achieved). 19. Enhance short-term employment support programs while developing medium-term reforms for labor market efficiency and productivity. The temporary employment program’s (PET) institutional set up was enhanced and the program was implemented in both rural and urban areas as a prior action to the Economic Policies in Response to the Crisis DPL (FY10). The number of beneficiaries’ target was exceeded in 2010. With regard to developing medium-term reforms to improve labor market efficiency and productivity, the CPS/CPSPR was vague in what was expected and how to measure success in this area. The CPSCR reports that a series of knowledge services were delivered by the Bank (e.g. poverty diagnostics, micro-simulation exercises on targeting of social programs, labor productivity for the poor, female labor force participation, and new labor productivity data), but provides little information on the medium-term reforms being developed. Meanwhile, the IMF’s 2011 Article IV consultation noted that long-standing contractual rigidities continued to weigh on employment in the formal sector of the economy, constraining an effective allocation of labor. (Mostly Achieved). 20. Improve competitiveness by lowering international trade costs via reduction of Most Favored Nations (MFN) tariffs and simplification of the trade tariff regime and customs processes. During the CPS period, Mexico did not actively use protectionist measures as a response to the crisis, but continued to implement tariff reductions that led to the average MFN tariff being lowered from 10.4 percent in 2008 to 5.3 percent in 2010, in line with the CPSPR target. The reduction in rates and increase in duty free tariff lines have resulted in a simpler tariff structure. The simplification in customs processes is not considered here because it is also part of the objective Improve the efficiency of customs process under Pillar V. (Achieved). 21. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar I as satisfactory. WBG support contributed to the adoption of countercyclical policies to deal with the effect of the global crisis, the strengthening of financial sector stability and financial inclusion, the enhancement of short-term employment support programs, and further trade liberalization when other countries were resorting to protectionist policies. However, some longer-term reforms sought by the CPS, such as fiscal sustainability and more labor market flexibility, are pending, and information is generally lacking for the post-2010 period. Pillar II: Improving Competitiveness 22. Under Pillar II, the CPSPR aimed to promote competitiveness through measures to provide quality education, and to improve human skills, infrastructure, and global links for the IT industry. 23. Strengthen and expand the government’s Quality Schools Program. The indicator for measuring the achievement of this objective (schools participating in the government’s Quality Schools For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group Program) is also used to measure the attainment of another objective under Pillar III. To avoid double counting, this objective is not considered in the IEG review. (Not rated). 24. Improve the coverage and quality of education in poor municipalities. No outcome indicator was proposed in the CPSPR to measure improvement in education coverage and quality in poor municipalities. The CPSCR reiterates the results as measured by an indicator for another objective under Pillar III (number of children in target municipalities attending Early Childhood Development sessions). Again, to avoid double counting, this objective is not considered in the IEG review. (Not rated). 25. Improve the relevance of upper secondary education. All federal schools implemented the competence-based curriculum by 2011. The Bank supported the effort through two programmatic Upper Secondary Education DPLs (FY10 and FY12). According to the Ministry of Education (ENLACE program) 31 percent of scores in mathematics have been good or excellent compared to 15 percent at the start of the Bank project, and completion rates for students in the poorest quintile of the income distribution have improved slightly. An increase in PISA scores between 2006 and 2009 also indicate improved education results in reading, mathematics, and science. (Achieved). 26. Promote an equitable expansion of tertiary education through student assistance. The CPSPR did not propose an outcome indicator. The CPSCR reports a significant increase (from 10 to 20.6 percent between 2004/05 and 2011) in the share of students in tertiary education from households in the two lowest quintiles of the income distribution. The Bank’s Tertiary Education Student Assistance APL (FY06-FY12) financed, among other things, 60 percent of the PRONABES scholarship program for academically qualified tertiary education students and an expansion of Indigenous Students Assistance Program. The project was restructured following changes in the government’s strategy and eliminated student loans while retaining grants. IFC made a number of investments in the education sector - Universidad Autonoma de Guadalajara (UAG), Harmon Hall (a leading English language school), and FINEM (a leading student loan institution), but these institutions have not achieved financial stability so far, thus limited development impact, according IFC’s own monitoring system (DOTS). Available evidence does not support the CPSCR claim that IFC “successfully supported” tertiary education. (Achieved). 27. Improve human skills, infrastructure, links between local and global companies, financing and legal and regulatory framework for IT. This objective has a wide, but vaguely defined scope. The two outcome indicators (jobs created by the IT industry as a result of training programs and total private R&D in GDP) are poor proxies for measuring the various improvements called for in this objective. The CPSCR reports that the first indicator was dropped after the mid-term review of the Bank’s Information Technology Development project (FY08), and that total private R&D in GDP increased from 0.12 to 0.17 percent (no dates given), which does not square with the CPSPR baseline of 0.19 percent (and target of 0.31percent). The Bank’s Innovation for Competitiveness APL (FY05-FY11) supported business innovation by providing funds to establish companies and supporting the creation of public-private research consortia, and by accelerating the formation of human capital through strategic and coordinated use of the scholarship fund. The Strengthen Business Environment for Economic Growth DPL (FY11-FY12) supported reforms that reduced the cost of regulatory compliance. The CPSCR also reports on the number of companies with technical capacity, quality standard certifications, and access to new markets, the reduction in tax compliance time and costs, the mobilization of private investment in infrastructure, and the modernization of public procurement. While these changes do indicate improvement in the business environment for IT, in the absence of a monitoring framework, it is not possible to assess the significance of this progress against CPS expectations. The CPSPR indicated that IFC was developing a strong pipeline in IT sector, but this did not happen due to a lack of market demand. (Partially Achieved). 28. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar II as satisfactory. Bank support contributed to improved results in secondary education and expanded access to tertiary education For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group among low income students. However, the CPS objective relating to the IT industry was vague, overly ambitious, and not monitorable; it is thus not clear whether the progress met expectations. Pillar III: Promoting Social Inclusion and Reducing Poverty 29. In response to the crisis, the objectives under Pillar III adopted a sharper focus on strengthening the social safety net, ensuring quality social services and enhancing human capital of the poor. 30. Increase capacities in health, nutrition and education of poor families through human capital investment by promoting regular health check-ups, improving health status, and raising school enrollment and attendance fees. With the Bank’s Support to Oportunidades and additional financing (FY09 and FY11), the number of families participating in the successful conditional cash transfer program increased from 5.2 million around the time of the CPSPR to 5.8 million in December 2012, while the target of having 3 million more children participating in the program was surpassed. Given that the CPS objective aimed explicitly at improved health and education outcomes, it would have been useful if the CPSCR provided some evidence on these results. However, the only indicator directly pertaining to health access by the poor (pilot mid-wife support in poor municipalities) was dropped from the Bank project, thus not reported in the CPSCR. (Achieved). 31. Preserve and expand the Popular Health Insurance’s coverage of poor and informal worker families, and strengthen its financing and affiliation systems. The coverage of the Popular Health Insurance increased from 27 million at the beginning of the CPS period to over 52 million at the end, exceeding the target of 45 million affiliates. The main channel for Bank support was the Support to the Social Protection System in Health Project (FY10). Its latest supervision report notes that health risk management guidelines have been designed and rolled out, and that federal entities that contribute with their State Solidarity Contribution to the PHI already exceed in number the end-of-project target. Therefore the system is well financed and managed. (Achieved). 32. Improve access to early childhood education (ECD) services and improve learning outcomes of children in the most marginalized municipalities. The Programa Escuelas de Calidad (PEC) was established in 2001 and has been successful in introducing school autonomy and improving local participation in education. The Bank’s School-Based Management Project I & II (FY06 &FY10) helped expand public schools in the PEC, especially those in marginalized and indigenous areas, and strengthened the program. The ongoing Compensatory Education project (FY10) supported an increase of children attending ECD sessions by 30 percent, falling short of the target (35 percent) under the CPSPR. Learning results from the Ministry of Education’s ENLACE test th in 5 pilot municipalities increased significantly for both 6 grade primary (from average 469.15 in 2009 rd to 517.13 in 2010-11) and 3 of secondary (from 498.6 in 2009 to 514.4 in 2010-11). The Bank’s knowledge services provided recommendations to further improve the Mexican program. (Achieved). 33. Strengthen the capacity of the health system to control epidemic waves. The CPSCR reports that by December 2012, 24 percent of the population had been vaccinated against A/H1N1, but it is impossible to assess progress without a baseline or target. The Bank intended to support this objective through the Influenza Prevention & Control project (FY10). However, after three extensions of the original February 26, 2010 deadline, the loan lapsed on February 28, 2011 without becoming effective. Without Bank assistance, the government implemented a number of actions that strengthened the country’s capacity to monitor effectively, distribute vaccines, medicines, and medical supplies, and expand the country’s strategic reserves of these supplies. The Bank provided TA to the National System for Epidemiological Surveillance through a performance assessment, which identified areas in need of improvement in the system, and an Avian and Human Influenza grant (FY10-FY12) to help develop comprehensive risk communication strategies at local level in 9 states. IFC invested in three hospitals, including one through PPP, which helped to expand the capacity of the relevant localities to deal with epidemics. Overall, there is little evidence of a strong WBG contribution to improving Mexican health system’s capacity to control epidemic waves. (Partially Achieved). For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group 34. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar III as satisfactory. The Bank helped improve poor people’s health and education investment through Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program and expand health insurance coverage for the poor and informal workers. Access to education in poor municipalities improved. However, the WBG did not seem to have played a significant role in strengthening the capacity of Mexico’s health system to control epidemic waves. Pillar IV: Developing Infrastructure and Assuring Energy Security and Environmental Sustainability 35. Under pillar IV, the WBG strategy pursued a large number of objectives. Many of these are reformulated in the CPSCR, which does not acknowledge explicitly that this is being done. Presumably, this reformulation is needed to fill the gap between the vaguely stated strategic objectives in the CPSPR and the WBG’s actual program. 36. Develop massive urban transport evaluating alternative solutions and proposing frameworks for private sector participation. The indicator proposed in the CPSPR (improved bus system energy efficiency in liters of diesel per kilometer) is a poor proxy for measuring the development of massive urban transport and the private sector’s role in it. It is not reported in the CPSCR. With the creation of the Federal Program to Support Mass Transit (PROTRAM) in 2008, Mexico made important progress in mass transport development, alternative mobility options, improving quality of life and productivity, and reducing CO2 emissions. The Bank provided a wide range of lending and knowledge services, including the Mexico City Insurgentes Bus Rapid Transit System Carbon Finance Project (FY06), which is helping Mexico City reduce air pollution and GHG emissions from the transport sector; the Urban Transport Transportation Project (FY10), which began implementation in 2011 but is still too early to see concrete results; the Sustainable Transport and Air Quality GEF grant (FY10), which has produced good results in some municipalities (e.g., Leon); and a reimbursable advisory service for the design of PROTRAM. There is no information on what frameworks for private sector participation have been proposed and/or implemented. (Mostly Achieved). 37. Catalytic Use of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) to foster technological, regulatory and institutional changes in the public transport sector. The proposed indicator (improved bus productivity) bears little relevance to the use of CDM to foster changes, and is not reported on in the CPSCR. The CPSCR reformulated the CPSPR objective without discussing what was wrong with the original objective. Mexico had an ambitious program to drastically reduce GHG emissions in energy and transport sectors, the largest emitters. The Bank supported the clean development agenda in transport through several projects: the Framework for Green Growth DPL (FY10-FY11) supported the approval of the Energy Efficiency Law and the Renewable Energy Law, the creation of PROTRAM, the establishment of operating principles for federal transfers to urban mass transport programs, and the setting up of guidelines for measuring GHG emissions and its reduction in transport corridors; the Low-Carbon DPL (FY11) helped develop new emission control standards; and a target was set under the Voluntary Clean Transport (VCT) for passenger and freight operators. However, there is no information on how the CDM was used catalytically to foster these changes. The new emission control standard is not yet in force due to a court challenge by vehicle manufacturers and the target for VCT was not achieved. (Mostly Achieved). 38. Improve the federal housing system to facilitate access to housing by low- and moderate-income families. There was improvement in the federal housing system (FHS), but reaching low- and moderate-income families was much more gradual than anticipated. Despite an eight month extension, the Private Housing Finance Markets Strengthening project (FY09) did not achieve the gradual expansion of FHS’s products towards lower income segments. The percentage of mortgage loans to households earning between 1 and 6 minimum wages increased from 10 percent to 25 percent of total loans by December 2012, short of the 50 percent target; and the corresponding value increased from 5 percent to 14 percent, against the 25 percent target. This reflected flaws in project design and delays in the implementation of the relevant reforms. IFC actively supported the For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group affordable housing agenda, but a majority of IFC’s client companies are experiencing operational difficulties. Three IFC clients in the finance sector (Su Casita, Vertice, and GMAC) and three in the housing development business (HOMEX, URBI and GEO) are facing liquidation, following a major government policy change which moved away from a large scale, affordable housing model towards a sustainable community model. (Partially Achieved). 39. Develop tools and instruments to induce local authorities to improve financial sustainability and efficiency of water supply and sanitation service provision in their jurisdiction. As defined in the CPSPR, this objective focused on the tools and instruments that could be applied by local authorities to manage water and sanitation service provisions. The indicator for measuring success (availability of replicable models) was vague. The CPSCR reports mainly on improvement in water and sanitation services provided by Bank projects, but also mentions that the Irrigation Modernization Project (FY04-FY10) not only contributed to improved water use efficiency, but also generated replicable models (no elaboration on what models). The Modernization of Water and Sanitation Sector TA (FY06-FY10) disseminated water models (e.g., utilities performance indicators, evaluation methodology of urban water supply and sanitation programs, billing systems, customer databases, etc.) in 10 water utilities participating in the program, leading to some improvement in their operational and financial performance. Some participating municipalities (e.g., Puerto Vallarta) achieved higher cost recovery and became models of water utilities. The CPSCR also reports that the Water Sector DPL (FY10) had an institutional impact, although more at the federal rather than the targeted local authority level. Overall, it appears that some tools and instruments have been developed, but it is difficult to assess whether the progress met expectations as the latter was not clearly defined. (Mostly Achieved). 40. Provide environmental services of national and global significance and secure their long term sustainability. This objective is vague; the indicator proposed (additional hectares under environmental service contracts), which was achieved as a prior action under the Environmental Sustainability DPL (FY09), does not capture the range of interventions by the WBG, including IFC, in this area which may have helped putting in motion some institutional changes (legislation, biodiversity conservation) for long-term sustainability. However, the lack of relevant indicators makes it difficult to assess the overall impact of WBG assistance. (Partially Achieved). 41. Increase access to efficient and sustainable integrated energy services in predominantly indigenous rural areas. The Bank intended to support the government’s rural electrification program through the Integrated Energy Services project (FY08) and a GEF grant for the Solar Thermal Project Agua Prieta II. However, slow progress in both projects means results are limited - two pilots benefiting about 200 inhabitants and 2 solar farms with capacity to cover 79 households starting operations in January 2013. On the other hand, two IFC financed private wind power projects have been in operation in the poor southern state of Oaxaca (one started operations in 2009 and the other soon thereafter). These projects have had significant demonstration effects and Mexico now has more than 1,500 megawatts of installed wind power, although the additional power supply did not target indigenous rural areas. (Partially Achieved). 42. Develop regulatory, monitoring, and financial frameworks for promoting low emissions in the transport and energy sectors. The indicators proposed (919 SME agribusinesses adopting environmentally sustainable technologies and avoiding 770,000 tons of CO2) bear limited relevance to the regulatory, monitoring and financial framework in the transport and energy sectors for lower emissions. The CPSCR reports on the WBG’s contribution to reducing energy consumption and CO2 emission at residential level through the Efficient Lighting and Appliances Project (FY11), and in agriculture through the Sustainable Rural Development Project (FY09), but does not discuss how these projects, with their seemingly limited scope (despite the large amount of compact fluorescent lamps replaced), have had an impact on the regulatory, monitoring and financial framework for reducing emissions in the two targeted sectors. (Partially Achieved). For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group 43. Reduce CO2 emission through the adoption of emission reduction technologies. Despite delays under the Large-Scale Renewable Energy Development Project (FY07), wind farm La Venta III has paved the way for the development of wind energy in Mexico, as it was the first bidding process to be launched for the provision of wind energy under the Independent Power Producer scheme. With increased wind power capacity, prices of wind energy have decreased from US$11c/kWh to US$6c/kWh (no time frame given), demonstrating the commercial viability of this technology. (Achieved). 44. Adapt to climate change. During the CPS period, the Mexican government made important progress in this area. The CPS was accompanied by the Climate Change DPL (FY08) “to support the government’s climate change strategy”; the CPSPR introduced eight environment-related objectives. Nevertheless, no climate change related objective was formulated until the CPSCR, which does not explain why it was not deemed a key objective earlier. The two indicators introduced ex post both refer to efforts supported under the initial DPL (FY08). Given that it is poor practice to introduce objectives ex post unless there is a clear indication that new opportunities emerged after the CPSPR which allowed the WBG to pursue agendas that had been impossible earlier, this objective is not considered in the IEG review. (Not rated). 45. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar IV as moderately satisfactory. The WBG contributed to Mexico’s good progress in developing a regulatory framework to adapt to climate change and renewable energies to reduce CO2 emissions. Progress has also been made in developing the clean public transport sector and providing environmental services for long-term sustainability, although the evidence is not always clear due to a lack of relevant indicators for measuring the impact of the wide range of WBG interventions. However, there was slow progress in using the CDM to foster changes, in providing housing finance to low- and moderate-income families, and in increasing energy access in indigenous rural areas. The proliferation of small, overlapping objectives, many of which were poorly defined, and a poor monitoring framework with irrelevant indicators, make it difficult to assess the effectiveness of WBG interventions in several areas under this pillar. Pillar V: Strengthening Institutions 46. In the CPSPR, institutional strengthening was identified as a crucial cross-cutting theme in Bank support. Under pillar V, the Bank program aimed at supporting program-based budgeting and inform the public on the effectiveness of government spending, improve municipal and customs administration, strengthen fiscal transparency, governance and accountability, improve the functioning of the judiciary, and improve communications. 47. Select federal departments and agencies to provide decision makers and the public with rigorous, timely, user-friendly information on the efficiency and effectiveness of government organizations and program expenditures. Mexico is making progress on performance-based budgeting, but at a slower pace than envisaged in the Results Based Management project (FY09). For example, the component of design and implementation of a management improvement program has not progressed and has been cancelled at the government’s request. The same applies to the development of an integrated information system and strengthening financial management for results-based management and budgeting, for which the Bank provided FBSs. Available evidence suggests that the government is pursuing results- oriented budgeting, but may prefer to implement this agenda on its own and at its own pace. Indeed, program performance information from line ministries was used during the 2013 budget preparation and submitted to Congress. Moreover, a portal with financial and non-financial information on the budget is now available for citizens. (Partially Achieved). 48. Improve administration in selected municipal governments. Through a grant for Creation of a Public Observatory of Municipal Management (FY10) the Bank contributed to the establishment of an online space or information system for exchanging good practices, municipal management experiences, and innovations. While this was a positive step, it is not evidence of improved For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group administration in municipal governments. The CPSCR provides no information on the proposed indicator (programs with improved strategic design and reporting). (Not Achieved). 49. Improve the efficiency of customs processes. The Customs Institutional Strengthening project (FY10) was cancelled at the request of the government and therefore the development outcome was not achieved. The cancellation was prompted by the government’s realization that it could not implement the project before the end of the presidential term. (Not Achieved). 50. Strengthen fiscal transparency, governance, and accountability. The achievement of this objective would be measured through user surveys on satisfaction of Congress and civil society organizations with the performance information made available via government websites. By end- 2012 a portal was available for citizens with information expanded to all levels of government. There are no user surveys yet to corroborate the satisfaction with the performance information provided by government websites. (Partially Achieved). 51. Improve institutional performance of the judiciary. The State Judicial Modernization project (FY12) helped the Federal District Government introduce an integrated ICT system to support the new management model. It is now operational in 69 courts in four locations. About 55 percent of the respondents to a survey conducted by EPADEC were satisfied with justice services in the Federal District Government. However, the CPSCR notes that other states were reluctant to participate due to poor coordination between the state governments and judiciaries. (Partially Achieved). 52. Improve capacity building and communication practices. This objective is very vague, as is the proposed indicator (timely information made available). It is not clear what information made available within what timeframe was expected in the CPSPR. The main Bank intervention was the Strengthening of the Federal Institute for Access to Information grant (FY05-FY09), which envisaged that 30 states and the Federal District would adopt the electronic access to information system (INFOMEX); only 12 states had adopted the system by the project’s closure. There is no information on whether the Bank’s effort has led to greater availability of timely information. (Partially Achieved). 53. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar V as unsatisfactory. Most of the objectives under this pillar were poorly defined, with overlapping scope. The indicators were often vague and not reported on. The Bank’s interventions for improving the information systems in the governments were important and could have significant impact on the efficiency and accountability of the agencies. However, there is little evidence on strengthened institutional capacity through better information systems. Objectives IEG Rating Pillar I: Accelerating Growth Satisfactory Pillar II: Improving Competitiveness Satisfactory Pillar III: Promoting Social Inclusion and Reducing Poverty Satisfactory Pillar IV: Developing Infrastructure and Assuring Energy Security Moderately Satisfactory and Environmental Sustainability Pillar V: Strengthening Institutions Unsatisfactory 4. Overall IEG Assessment CASCR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group Overall outcome: 54. IEG rates the overall outcome of the CPS as moderately satisfactory, below the CPSCR rating of satisfactory. WBG support contributed to Mexico’s effective response to the global financial crisis – adopting countercyclical policies, strengthening financial sector stability and financial inclusion, enhancing short-term employment support programs, and further liberalizing trade when other countries were resorting to protectionist policies. Bank support also contributed to the good progress in improving access to early childhood education and learning outcomes in secondary education, expanding tertiary education among low income students, promoting health and education investment among poor people through Mexico’s conditional cash transfer program, increasing health insurance coverage for the poor and informal workers, and developing a regulatory framework to adapt to climate change, the massive urban transport, and renewable energies to reduce CO2 emissions. 55. However, some longer-term reforms sought by the CPS, such as fiscal sustainability and labor market reforms, are pending, and the WBG appear to have played a small role in strengthening the capacity of Mexico’s health system to control epidemic waves. Moreover, progress was slow in providing housing finance to low- and moderate-income families, increasing energy access in indigenous rural areas, and developing tools for sustainable and efficient water and sanitation service provisions by local authorities. The WBG intervened on multiple fronts for long-term environmental sustainability, but the evidence of results is not clear due to a lack of relevant indicators for measuring the aggregate impact of the wide range of WBG activities. Indeed, many CPS objectives, including those pertaining to the IT industry, the use of CDM to foster changes, and most of those under Pillar V, were vague and overly broad. This coupled with a poor monitoring framework with irrelevant indicators makes it difficult to demonstrate the effectiveness of WBG interventions in a large number of areas. WBG Performance: 56. IEG rates WBG performance as moderately satisfactory, below the CPSCR rating of satisfactory. The Mexican government had a very clear development strategy and the Bank decided to support that strategy. Consequently, the areas of WBG engagement were well aligned with the country’s program and addressed its key development issues. With its strong focus on flexibility, the CPS program responded quickly to changing client demand during the global financial crisis. The choice of instruments was sensible given the country context. However, the CPS equated supporting Mexico’s own development plan with articulating no specific CPS objectives to be achieved during the strategy period. As such, the CPS focused overwhelmingly on the modality of WBG assistance (e.g., through annual DPLs), but provided no guidance on what it expected to achieve through this assistance. Moreover, the CPS provided no results framework that could guide the implementation of the CPS program. 57. The CPSPR addressed this issue to some extent, but was mostly backward looking with little discussion of the CPS program and few outcome targets going beyond FY11. Many of the CPSPR objectives were poorly formulated, with vague and sometimes overlapping scope. A large number of the outcome indicators were of little relevance to the underlying objectives. Such a design deficiency seriously impeded the ability of the WBG to achieve the CPS objectives. The AAA program was tailored to country demands and supported the lending program. The CPS devoted substantial attention to IBRD-IFC collaboration, mapping out the areas where the two institutions would coordinate their programs. Other development partners’ interventions were not considered explicitly in the CPS. A number of domestic and external risks were identified, but no mitigation measures were proposed. By contrast, the CPS articulated a clear approach for dealing with reduced demand for Bank financing and slow government progress under large DPLs. The Bank’s Mexico portfolio compared favorably to regional averages, suggesting adequate implementation support. On the other hand, IFC’s operations encountered serious difficulties during CPS period, with below average development impact. There was adequate attention to safeguard and fiduciary issues, and good collaboration within the WBG. For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group 5. Assessment of CPS Completion Report 58. The CPSCR provided adequate detail on the implementation of the WBG program. The analysis in the results matrix was candid and insightful. In the main text of the CPSCR, however, there is little recognition of any mistakes or failings – the discussions are overwhelmingly about the WBG’s success. The CPSCR reformulated some objectives (and indicators), without signaling that this is being done or explaining what is wrong with the originals. The analysis of the WBG contribution to the country outcomes is in some cases appropriate, but in others superficial, focusing on project indicators that do not reflect the full scope of the targeted outcome. 6. Findings and Lessons 59. The CPSCR outlined eight lessons, which are sensible even if the list does not give a sense of priority. In IEG’s view, a key deficiency of the CPS was the notion that a flexible and client-driven strategy would not benefit from an analysis of the WBG’s comparative advantage and a clear articulation of the specific CPS objectives within the country’s longer-term strategy. Although the importance of a strong results framework is recognized, the relevant lesson in the CPSCR is more about corporate requirements than what the Mexico CPS should have done but did not. The lack of a results framework, which reflects the lack of clear CPS objectives, deprived the WBG of a management tool for managing risks and accounting for results. A lesson from IFC’s investments with the housing finance companies and housing developers is the need to have clear exit strategies for downside and execute them so as to minimize losses from non-performing investments. Annexes 17 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-13 (US$ million) Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Mexico, FY08 - FY13 Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Mexico, FY08-13 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Mexico, Exit FY08-13 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Mexico and Comparators, FY08-13 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Mexico and Comparators, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Mexico, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Mexico (US$ Million) Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Mexico, 2008 - 2013 Annex Table 12: Mexico - Millennium Development Goals Annexes 19 CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CPS Objectives Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar I Actual Results Comments Pillar I: Accelerating Growth (as of current month/year) 1. Countercyclical fiscal policies during 2009 while adopting measures to enhance medium term fiscal sustainability for 2010 and beyond, including an increase in non-oil tax revenue and improvements to public expenditure management. Indicators: Non-oil tax revenue as a Non-oil tax income increased from 9.9 percent Source: CPSCR percent of GDP of GDP in 2008 to 10.0 percent in 2010. Baseline (2008): 10% Target (2010): 10.3% 2. Implementation of regulatory reforms to foster financial sector access, consumer protection and stability. Indicators: Number of total outlets Number of outlets providing financial services Source: CPSCR (measured down market lending by increased to 20,287 from 10,354 in 2008 – 96 Indicator related to only one development banks). percent increase. aspect of the outcome (access). Baseline (2008): 10,354 Target: 35 % increase Major Outcome 3. Enhancement of short-term employment support programs while developing medium-term reforms for labor Measures market efficiency and labor productivity. Indicators: Number of beneficiaries The number of beneficiaries hired through PET Source: CPSCR hired under the temporary employment increased from 365,000 in 2008 to 897,000 program thousand during 2010. Baseline (2008): 365,000 beneficiaries Target (2009 - 2010): Beneficiaries hired under the temporary employment program over the 2009-2010 period reaches 600 thousand people annually 4. Improved competitiveness by lowering international trade costs via reduction of Most Favored Nations (MFN) tariffs and simplification of the trade tariff regime and customs processes. Indicators: Average tariff for The average general MFN tariff rate fell from Source: CPSCR and additional manufactured imports. 10.4 percent in 2008 to 5.3 percent in 2010. information from Mexico team. Baseline (2008): 10.4% Moreover, the number of duty free tariff lines increased from 20 percent in 2008 to 61 Target: 5.3% percent in 2011. Annexes CPSCR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar II Actual Results Comments Pillar II: Improving Competitiveness (as of current month/year) 5. Strengthening and expanding the Government's Quality Schools Program Indicators: Percent of basic education By 12/30/2009 20.35 percent of basic schools Source: CPSCR and additional schools participating in (School Quality were participating in PEC, and by 2012, 27 information from Mexico team. Program) PEC. percent. Baseline: 10.3% (2005/06) Target: 15.8% (2009) 6. Greater support for improved coverage and quality of education in poor municipalities Indicators: Number of children As of December 2012, the number of children Source: Mexico team communication. attending at least 80 percent of sessions attending at least 80 percent of ECD sessions of the Early Childhood Development was 51,530. (ECD) intervention in 172 targeted municipalities. Baseline (2009): 43,241 Target (2014): 58,685 7. Improved relevance of upper secondary education Indicators: Competence based By 2011 all federal upper secondary schools Source: CPSCR curriculum implemented in all federal had competence based curriculum. upper secondary schools Baseline (2010): No curriculum Target (2011): 50 percent of federal upper secondary schools 8. Equitable expansion of tertiary education through student assistance Indicators: Increase of low income Source: CPSCR and Mexico team The share of 18 to 24 year-old students in tertiary students in tertiary education from 3.4 The CPSPR indicator was “# of jobs education from households from the two lowest percent to 7.5 percent. created by the IT industry as a result quintiles increased to more than 20 percent in 2011. of training programs.” It was modified by the CPSCR owing to a project restructuring of the Tertiary Education Student Assistance project (FY06). 9. Improved human skills, infrastructure, links between local and global companies, financing and legal and regulatory framework for IT Indicators: Total private research and Total private R&D also increased from 0.12 Source: CPSCR and Mexico team. development (R&D) as percent of GDP. percent to 0.17 percent. The Innovation for Competitiveness APL (FY05) had different baseline Baseline: 0.19% and target. In any case, the indicator is only indirectly related to the Target: 0.31% outcome. Annexes CPSCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar III Actual Results Pillar III: Promoting Social Inclusion Comments (as of current month/year) and Reducing Poverty 10. Increase capacities in health, nutrition and education of poor families through human capital investment by promoting regular health check-ups, improving health status, and raising school enrollment and attendance rates Indicators: (1) # number of families 1. As of December 2012, 5.8 million Source: CPSCR and additional participating in Oportunidades; (2) # of families were participating in the information from Mexico team. children participating in Oportunidades; Oportunidades program. (3) pilot mid-wife support in poor According to the CPSCR, municipalities. 2. In 2012 12,135,591 children were indicator (3) for this outcome covered by the Oportunidades program. was dropped from the Oportunidades project – as per Baseline (2008): (1) 5.2 million; (2) agreement with government. 7,222,855 children (age 0-19 years); (3) no poor municipality with mid-wife support. Target (2012): (1) ≥ 5.2 million; (2) 3 million increase; (3) ≥ 30 poor municipalities with mid-wife support. 11. Preserve and expand the Popular Health Insurance’s coverage of poor and informal worker families, and to strengthen its financing and affiliation systems Indicators: Number of individuals PHI affiliates increased from 27 million at the Source: CPSCR affiliated with the Popular Health beginning of the CPS period to more than 52.9 Insurance million in June 2013. Baseline (2008-09): 30.5 million Target (2013): 45 million 12. Improve access to ECD services and learning outcomes of children in the most marginalized municipalities of Mexico Indicators: (1) % of poor schools 1. Data for Jan 2012 (2011-12 school Source: CPSCR and additional participating in the School year) shows that 44.5 percent of PEC schools information from Mexico team Based Management Program; (2) # of in highly marginalized and marginalized areas children attending early childhood are participating in School Based Management development programs in poor Program. municipalities. 2. The ongoing Compensatory Baseline: (1) 38. 4 percent in 2010; (2) Education project has supported the increase 43,241 of children attending ECD sessions by 30 percent (51,530) between 2010 and 2013. Target: (1) 55 percent in 2014; (2) 58,685 13. Strengthen the capacity of the Mexican health system to control epidemic waves Indicators: Percentage of population Despite the cancellation of the Influenza Source: CPSCR and additional vaccinated against A/H 1 N1 project due to problems using planned information from Mexico team. retroactive financing, the Ministry of Health Influenza Prevention and Baseline: 0 at time of influenza made significant progress towards the original Control (FY09) was cancelled. outbreak. loan development objectives. The SINAVE CPSCR reported a different (National System for Epidemiological indicator which was an Target: 15 percent by 2011 Surveillance) was strengthened with Bank intermediate outcome indicator support. The SINAVE performance index of the Influenza Prevention and improved from a baseline of 79.8 in December Control project. 2008 to 81.5 in December 2010. Annexes CPSCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar IV Pillar IV: Developing Infrastructure Actual Results Comments and Assuring Energy Security and (as of current month/year) Environment Sustainability 14. Development of massive urban transport evaluating alternative solutions and proposing frameworks for private sector participation Indicators: Improved bus system Emissions reductions in the period Nov. 1, Source: CPSCR and Mexico energy efficiency (in liters of diesel per 2009 to Oct. 31, 2010 (report received by the team passenger kilometer). Bank on July 22, 2011) were 50,180 tons Results reported do not CO2/year, of which modal change were 38,790 correspond to the indicators in Baseline (2006): No change in bus tons. CPSPR. No rationale for change system energy efficiency. in indicator. Not enough 368, old, small and mid-sized, gasoline and evidence to judge outcome Target (30 June 2007): Field gas –mainly liquid petroleum gas – units were achievement. Target date measurement complies or surpasses replaced with 105 articulated passenger diesel already past at time of CPSPR, previously estimated emission buses. This contributed to lower overall fuel when it was set. reductions caused by implementation of consumption and lower greenhouse gas corridor. emissions (GHG) to the extent that articulated buses consume less fuel per passenger/km. 15. Catalytic use of Clean Development Mechanism to foster technology, regulatory and institutional changes in the public transport sector Indicators: Improved bus productivity: As of end 2012, (i) 368 buses have been Source: CPSCR and Mexico serving more passengers with lesser scrapped or disassembled (no longer team number of units and increased modal generating emissions); (ii) modal shift is at 18 Indicator seems unrelated to the share for large buses percent; and (iii) demand continues to grow outcome targeted. Not enough reaching an average of 290,000 rides per evidence to judge achievement Baseline (2006): 360 bus units weekday with peaks of over 300,000 trips per of outcome. Target date already operating inefficiently on Insurgentes. day. past at time of CPS. Target (2007): Increase in modal shift to 10 percent. 16. Improve the federal housing system to facilitate access to housing by low- and moderate income families Indicators: Financial support provided The Private Housing Finance Markets Source: CPSCR and Mexico by SHF to private sector intermediaries Strengthening project (FY09) did not achieve team (including loans to primary market, the expected gradual expansion of SHF’s Target date already past at time secondary market purchases, liquidity products towards lower income segments (i.e. of CPSPR (when target set). lines). Mex$23,000 million on financial support provided by SHF to private sector Baseline (June 2008) : Mexican intermediaries) reflecting flaws in project $20,700 million design and delays in the implementation of relevant reforms. Target (December 2008): Mex$23,000 million 17. Tools and instruments to induce local authorities to improve financial sustainability and efficiency of water supply and sanitation service provision in their jurisdiction Indicators: Replicable models of The Modernization of the Water and Sanitation Source: CPSCR and Mexico successful and sustainable provision of Sector Technical Assistance project (FY06) team. water and sanitation services available. documented and disseminated successful water Indicator not directly related to Baseline: No baseline set. models in 10 water utilities participating in the targeted outcome. Difficult to Target (2009): Replicable models program. judge achievement. Target past documented and disseminated. already past at time of CPSPR (when target set). 18. Provision of environmental services of national and global significance and secure their long term sustainability Indicators: # hectares under With the support of the Environmental Services Source: CPSCR and additional environmental service contracts. project (FY06) and a GEF grant, the Bank information from Mexico team aimed to enhance the provision of Baseline (2006): 538,107 ha environmental services of national and global significance and secure long-term Target (2011): 500,000 additional has. sustainability. By June 2011 1.5 million additional hectares were added under Annexes CPSCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar IV Pillar IV: Developing Infrastructure Actual Results Comments and Assuring Energy Security and (as of current month/year) Environment Sustainability environmental service contracts. 19. Increase access to efficient and sustainable integrated energy services in –predominantly indigenous-- rural areas of Mexico Indicators: (a) number of households By the end of the CPS period the number of Source: CPSCR and additional (HH) electrified with Renewable Energy households with solar photovoltaic technology information from Mexico team. Technologies (RET); (b) number of electricity had not increased because solar Unclear if intervention targeted MWh/year of electricity consumed for farms had not yet started to operate. After a indigenous areas, although it is productive uses in targeted communities restructuring of the Integrated Energy Services targeting rural areas. (MWh/year). project (FY08), including a one-year extension Baseline: (a) 0 HH electrified with of the closing date to June 2014 and a Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), simplification of the project’s implementations Target: (a) 47,080 HH electrified with arrangements, new targets have been set. Renewable Energy Technologies (RET); (b) incremental increase in 5650 MWh/year of electricity consumed for productive uses in targeted communities (MWh/year). 20. Regulatory, monitoring and financial framework for low emissions evolution of the transport and energy sectors developed Indicators: (a) # of small and medium- By end-2012 770 small and medium-sized agri- Source: CPSCR and Mexico sized agri-businesses adopting businesses adopted environmental sustainable team. environmentally sustainable technologies (i.e. renewable energy sources, technologies; and (b) # tons of CO2 energy efficient technologies, and/or Unclear how indicator relates to equivalents avoided. sustainable waste management and biomass targeted outcome. conversion), equivalent to 600,000 tons of CO2 Baseline (2010): 0 equivalent avoided. The Efficient Lighting and Appliances project Target (2013): (a) additional 2,168 small (FY10) promoted Mexico’s efficient use of and medium-sized agri-businesses energy and the mitigation of climate change by adopting environmentally sustainable increasing the use of energy efficient technologies; (b) additional 1,987,500 technologies at the residential level. tons of CO2 equivalent avoided. Specifically, less consumption of electricity favored the environment, as an emission of about 865,000 tons of CO2 was avoided with the 22.9 million light bulbs that were changed during 2012. 21. Reduce GHG (CO2) emission through the adoption of emission reduction technologies Indicators: Piloting of renewable energy 124,616 tCO2 over the period October-2013- Source: CPSCR and Mexico production with GEF/CN financing. August 2013. team Baseline (2007): 0 Target (2012): 124,616 tCO2 per year of operation 22. Adapt to Climate Change Indicators: (a) National emission In 2009 the Mexican government’s Special Source: CPSCR and Mexico reductions target set; (b) At least five Climate Change program (PECC in Spanish) team states committed to adopting a climate defined emission targets through 2012 and This indicator was added in CPS change action plan. longer term goals. completion report (not in CPS or Baseline (2008): 0 in CPSPR). The rationale was Target (2011): Emissions target set that no outcome on climate change was in CPSPR matrix. Annexes CPSCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar V Actual Results Comments Pillar V: Strengthening Institutions (as of current month/year) 23. Selected federal departments and agencies providing decision makers and the public with rigorous, timely, user- friendly information on the efficiency and effectiveness of government organizations and program expenditures Indicators: Performance information Performance information was used during Source: CPSCR and Mexico (PI) presented in budget requests from 2013 budget preparation between the Ministry team line secretariats to Secretaria de of Finance and line Ministries and to Congress. Hacienda y Credito Publico (SHCP) and A portal with financial and non-financial in budget submitted to Congress performance information on budget is now Baseline (2009): Performance available for citizens. information is not widely used by line secretariats in their budget requests. PI is sent to Congress on tight deadlines and in format/content that makes it non- useable. Target (2013): PI presented in timely fashion to Congress in a format that allows interpretation and meets their needs. Content includes outcome & output measures. Secretariats send budget requests to SHCP with PI. 24. Improved administration in selected municipal government Indicators: Programs with improved The Bank contributed to the establishment of Source: CPSCR. strategic design and reporting an online space or information system for the No baseline or target. The results dissemination of successful experiences, reported do not represent Baseline: training material, socio-economic information “programs with improved strategic and social demographics. design and reporting.” Target: 25. Improved efficiency of customs processes Indicators: Increase in the perception At the request of the Government, the Customs Source: CPSCR. by users of the efficiency of the services project was cancelled; hence the development offered by Customs. outcome was not achieved. However, the Bank provided support to improve the Baseline: Government’s custom processes by measuring customs performance. Target: 26. Strengthened fiscal transparency, and governance and accountability Indicators: Satisfaction of Congress By end-2012 a portal was available for citizens Source: CPSCR and Mexico and civil society organizations with the and the information has been expanded to all team. performance information made available levels of government.. Baseline and target adopted in via government websites (as measured CAS completion report after through user surveys). Results-Based Management and Baseline: PI is available to civil society Budgeting project (FY09) was through the new portal but has not been restructured in 2012. expanded to all levels of government Target: Portal Containing PI on budget performance is available for citizens. 27. Support the improvement of institutional performance of judiciaries Indicators: Improved user confidence. The Bank helped implement the new ICT Source: CPSCR and Mexico network that provided timely information on team. Baseline: demand and supply of justice services in the The indicator only indirectly Target: Federal District Government (GDF). related to targeted outcome. Implementation of a new management model Difficult to judge achievement of supported by this ICT platform was completed. outcome. Ten user service applications uploaded to the institutional network that served as backbone Annexes CPSCR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Mexico CPS FY08-FY13: Pillar V Actual Results Comments Pillar V: Strengthening Institutions (as of current month/year) of the management model have increased user confidence and stakeholder satisfaction in the tribunal system of justice of the GDF. 28. Improved capacity building and communication practices Indicators: Timely information made The Bank helped improve the availability of Source: CPSCR and Mexico available. information through the implementation of team. different grants and knowledge services. The Baseline: IDF supporting IFAI contributed to expand the INFOMEX system to all 31 states. The Bank Target: contributed to improve the design and helped implement the Integrated Rural Cadastral Information System in Colima. It also contributed to strengthening the information system in Yucatán (SIEGEY). Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Approved Project ID Project Name Outcome Rating FY FY FY Amount* Amount Project Planned Under CPS / CPSPR 2008-13 P110849 Climate Change DPL/DDO 2008 2008 2011 500.0 501.3 IEG: MS P107159 Urban Transport Transformation Progr 2010 2010 2017 200.0 150.0 LIR: S P116226 Social Protection in Health 2010 2010 2014 1,000.0 1,250.0 LIR: S P101369 Compensatory Education 2010 2010 2014 100.0 100.0 LIR: S P115347 School Based Management (APL2) 2010 2010 2014 220.0 220.0 LIR: S P112262 Upper Secondary Education DPL 2010 2010 2011 500.0 700.0 LIR: S P120134 DPL Adapt. Climate Change in WtrSct 2010 2010 2013 450.0 450.0 LIR: MS P113764 PROCAMPO 2011 Dropped 449.7 Total programmed projects CAS FY08-13 2,919.7 3,371.3 Unplanned P088996 Integrated Energy Services (CRL2) 2008 2014 15.0 LIR: U P101342 Affordable Housing DPL III 2008 2008 200.5 IEG: MU P106682 Savings&RurFinance SAGARPA (AF) 2008 2008 21.0 LIR: S P095510 Environmental Sustainability DPL 2009 2010 300.8 IEG: MS P106261 Sustainable Rural Development 2009 2017 50.0 LIR: MS P106528 Results-based Mgmt. and Bugdeting 2009 2014 17.2 LIR: MS P106589 IT Industry Development Project 2009 2015 80.0 LIR: MS P111839 Savings & Rural Fin 2nd phase (AF-C) 2009 2009 50.0 LIR: S P112258 Priv Housing Finance Markets Strngth 2009 2013 1,010.0 LIR: MS P114271 Customs Institutional Strengthening 2009 2012 10.0 IEG: Not rated; LIR: U P115067 Support to Oportunidades Project 2009 2014 1,503.8 LIR: S P115101 Supplement to Env Sustain. DPL 2009 2009 401.0 No Rating Available P115608 Framework for Green Growth DPL 2010 2011 1,503.8 LIR: S P116965 Influenza Prevention and Control 2010 2013 491.0 LIR: MS P118070 Economic Policies DPL 2010 2011 1,503.8 LIR: S P106424 Efficient lighting and appliances 2011 2014 250.6 LIR: S P112264 Strength. Business Env for EcoGrowth 2011 2012 751.9 IEG: S P121195 Efficiency Improvement Program 2011 2015 100.0 LIR: MS P121800 MEDEC Low-Carbon DPL 2011 2012 401.0 LIR: S P122349 Support to Oportunidades (AF) 2011 2011 1,250.0 LIR: S P120170 Strengthening Social Resilience to CC 2012 2013 300.8 LIR: S P123367 Savings and Credit Sector Loan 2012 2016 100.0 LIR: S P123505 Fiscal Risk Management DPL 2012 2014 300.8 LIR: S P123760 Forests and Climate Change (SIL) 2012 2017 350.0 LIR: S P126297 2nd Prog. Upper Secondary Educ DPL 2012 2014 300.8 LIR: MS Annexes CPSCR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group P126487 MOMET for Improved Climate Adaptation 2012 2018 105.3 LIR: S P130623 Sust. Rural Development (AF) 2013 2013 50.0 LIR: MS Total Non-programmed projects CAS FY08-13 0.0 1,1418.8 Total projects CAS FY08-13 2,919.7 1,4790.1 Dropped P072900 Highway Maintenance II 2008 Dropped 150.0 P074732 Finance SECAL 2008 Dropped 200.0 P077189 Water Policy Development SAL 2008 Dropped 100.0 P082950 Flagship Intervent.in IWRM 2008 Dropped 50.0 P085533 Agricultural Productivity II 2008 Dropped 160.0 P089798 Strng.UrbRealProp.RightsInst. 2008 Dropped 100.0 P089992 Social Development Policy Ln 2008 Dropped 300.0 P095896 MX Water Rights 2008 Dropped 100.0 P101370 TBD-HD 2008 Dropped 100.0 P109913 Streng Urban Real Prop Righ 2008 Dropped 50.0 P086058 Lifelong Learning APL 1 2009 Dropped 20.0 P089797 Tax Admin. Inst. Dev. 2009 Dropped 12.0 P090179 Community Access JusticeII 2009 Dropped 40.0 P095323 Indigenous Community Dev 2009 Dropped 120.0 P095458 PhaseII TertiaryEducStudent 2009 Dropped 25.0 P095600 Health System Loan 2009 Dropped 300.0 P096773 Environmental Management 2009 Dropped 100.0 P098269 APL1 National Urban Transport 2009 Dropped 30.0 P101341 Guerrero Decentr. RurTransp. 2009 Dropped 30.0 P101344 Competitiveness II 2009 Dropped 50.0 P106616 Integr Irrig. Modern.Plus 2009 Dropped 100.0 P107134 Env.Recovery Apatlaco River 2009 Dropped 50.0 P109911 NAFIN-Bancomex 2010 Dropped 500.0 P112076 Financial DPL 2010 Dropped 500.0 P101278 Forests: Environ Serv & CCH 2011 Dropped 76.0 Total dropped projects CAS FY08-13 3,263.0 On-going Approval Closing Approved FY FY Amount P066321 MX: III BASIC HEALTH CARE PROJECT 2001 2010 350.0 IEG: MS P077602 MX Tax Admin Institutional Development 2002 2008 52.0 IEG: S P070108 MX Savings & Credit Sector Strengthening 2003 2011 64.6 IEG: MS P068290 MX E-Business for Small Bus. Devpt. Pr. 2004 2008 58.4 IEG: Not rated P035751 MX Community Forestry II (PROCYMAF II) 2004 2009 21.3 IEG: S P035752 MX Irrigation & Drainage Modernization 2004 2010 303.0 IEG: MS P080149 MX Decentralized Infrastructure Developm 2004 2010 108.0 IEG: MS P087152 MX (CRL1)Savings & Rurl 2004 2013 75.5 LIR:S Finance(BANSEFI) P085851 MX Basic Education Dev Phase III 2005 2008 300.0 IEG: S P088080 MX Housing & Urban Technical Assistance 2005 2009 7.8 IEG: MU P089865 MX-(APL1) Innov. for Competitiveness 2005 2011 250.0 IEG: S P074755 MX State Judicial Modernization Project 2005 2012 30.0 IEG: MU P088728 MX (APL1) School-Based Management 2006 2010 240.0 IEG: MS Prog P088732 MX Access to Land for Young Farmers 2006 2010 100.0 IEG: U P091695 MX Modernization Water & Sanit Sector TA 2006 2010 25.0 IEG: MS P087038 MX Environmental Services Project 2006 2011 45.0 LIR: S P085593 MX (APL I) Tertiary Educ Student Ass 2006 2012 180.0 LIR: MS Total Ongoing Projects 2,210.6 Source: Mexico CPS, CPSPR and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 0/04/2013 *Proposed amounts in italics provided by CMU on 10/17/2013 **LIR: Latest internal rating. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Annexes CPSCR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-13 (US$ million) Project Project Name TF ID Approval Closing Approved ID FY FY Amount P066674 Indigenous and Community Biodiversity Conservation Project (GEF) TF 24372 2001 2008 7.5 P060908 Mexico Mesoamerican Biological Corridor Project (GEF) TF 24371 2001 2010 14.8 P065988 Consolidation of the Protected Areas System Project (GEF) TF 50311 2002 2010 31.1 P059161 Introduction of Climate Friendly measures in Transport TF 51612 2003 2009 5.8 P083132 Enabling Activity on Persistent Organic Pollutants to comply with the Stokholm Convention TF 53710 2005 2008 0.5 P082950 Mexico: Flagship Interventions in Integrated Water Resources Management Project TF 53338 2005 2008 0.5 P090533 Strengthening of the Federal Institute for Access to Information (IFAI) TF 54316 2005 2009 0.5 P082219 CDM TA for Mexico TF 56603 2006 2008 0.4 P095038 MX-GEF Integrated Energy Services TF 54619 2006 2008 0.7 P095038 MX-GEF Integrated Energy Services TF 55578 2006 2008 0.4 P095510 Mexico Environmental Sustainability Development Policy Loan TF 55408 2006 2009 0.6 P082656 Mexico City Insurgentes Bus Rapid Transit System Carbon Finance Project TF 56112 2006 2016 1.9 P100438 Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico TF 57461 2007 2008 0.3 P101341 MX-Guerrero Decentralized Rural Transport for Territorial Development Loan TF 57791 2007 2008 0.6 P100082 MX Land (IDF) TF 56996 2007 2010 0.4 P089171 Mexico Environmental Services Project TF 56321 2007 2011 15.0 P066426 Hybrid Solar Thermal Power Plant TF 57033 2007 2014 49.4 P077717 Large-scale Renewable Energy Development Project (Phase 1 = $25M; Phase 2 = $45M) TF 56781 2007 2014 25.0 P088546 Mexico: Waste Management and Carbon Offset Project TF 90169 2007 2015 12.0 P080104 MEXICO - Wind Umbrella TF 56319 2007 2017 17.1 P106261 Sustainable Rural Development TF 90643 2008 2009 0.5 P100438 Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico TF 90326 2008 2011 0.5 P104406 MX Fiscal Transparency TF 91135 2008 2011 0.5 P104290 MX Institutional Strengthening of Congress TF 58294 2008 2011 0.5 P098732 Mexico: Sacred Orchids of Chiapas: Cultural and Religious Values in Conservation Project TF 91426 2008 2012 0.8 P114897 Reducing Impacts of Ranching on Biodiversity TF 93682 2009 2012 0.2 P114889 LAND OWNERSHIP FOR THE RURAL POOR TF 93681 2009 2012 0.2 P109696 Creation of a Public Observatory of Municipal Management TF 91989 2009 2012 0.4 P112082 (MEXICO) Building Technical Capacity to Develop the PPP Program in the State of Jalisco TF 93232 2009 2013 0.2 P106305 Mexico: Low carbon bus corridor project TF 91333 2009 2013 1.0 P095038 MX-GEF Integrated Energy Services TF 91733 2009 2014 15.0 P108766 Sustainable Rural Development TF 93134 2009 2017 10.5 P118072 Mexico Influenza A/H1N1N Prevention TF 95094 2010 2012 1.7 P110849 Mexico - Climate Change Development Policy Loan TF 93086 2010 2012 1.0 P114012 Sustainable Transport and Air Quality TF 95695 2010 2014 5.4 P107159 MX Urban Transport Transformation Progr TF 96291 2010 2017 200.0 P120170 Strengthening Social Resilience to Climate Change TF 96061 2011 2012 0.3 P120200 Strengthening Statistical Infomation in Yucatan TF 96286 2011 2012 0.1 P121771 Strengthening Cash Management & Control systems TF 97593 2011 2013 0.4 P120654 MX GEF Efficient lighting and appliances TF 98465 2011 2014 7.1 P120654 MX GEF Efficient lighting and appliances TF 98062 2011 2014 50.0 P120116 Strengthening and Consolidation of internal control Framework of Fed Gov't TF 97295 2011 2014 0.3 P100438 Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico TF 96681 2011 2016 4.5 P121116 Sustainable Production Systems and Biodiversity TF 10952 2012 2013 0.1 P125764 Development of an internal control IT system for the Ministry of Public Administration TF 99123 2012 2014 0.1 P125982 Mexico Institutional Strengthening of Congress - Phase II TF 12026 2012 2015 0.4 P125717 Development of Professional Competencies of ASF Staff TF 10934 2012 2015 0.3 P088546 Mexico: Waste Management and Carbon Offset Project TF 11024 2012 2015 2.5 P123760 Mexico Forests and Climate Change Project TF 11648 2012 2017 25.7 P123760 Mexico Forests and Climate Change Project TF 11570 2012 2017 16.3 P129968 Oaxaca: Strengthening the State's Management Capacities TF 12320 2013 2016 0.3 P121116 Sustainable Production Systems and Biodiversity TF 12908 2013 2018 11.7 Total 542.7 Source: Client Connection as of 10/08/2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Analytical and Advisory Work for Mexico, FY08 - FY13 Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P101273 MX (SCL) Agricultural Trade FY08 Policy Note P101346 MX Electricity Subsidy Study FY08 Report P101733 MX CPAR Update FY08 Report P106025 MX Financial Sector Competitiveness FY08 Report P106361 FPDSN: Fee Service Advisory SHF FY08 Report P106567 MX Secondary Education Programm.I FY08 Report P110383 AML/CFT Assessment of Mexico FY08 Report P101358 MX Agriculture PER FY09 Report P108304 MX (CCH)Low Carbon Development Study FY09 Report P112567 MX Mexican Alliance for Educ Quality FY09 Report P117971 Third SHF Fee For Services FY11 Report P119779 Mexico ICR ROSC FY11 Report P106709 MX Health System Modernization FY12 Report P112024 MX Social Impacts of Climate Change FY12 Report P127554 FSAP Mexico FY12 Report Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P101567 MX (FFS)CONEVAL Monitoring & Evaluat FY08 "How-To" Guidance P104740 MX-Water Sector Financing Strategy FY08 Institutional Development Plan P106210 MX (FFS) Guerrero State DevPlan FY08 Institutional Development Plan P106230 MX (FFS) Adv. Serv. for Ref. of SHCP FY08 Client Document Review P106419 MX (FFS)SEDESOL RBM&E FY08 "How-To" Guidance P109739 MX (FFS)SEDESOL Productivity of the Poor FY08 "How-To" Guidance P111122 MX Inter. Conf. on Performance Budgeting FY08 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P104731 MX CF Assist CDM TA FY09 "How-To" Guidance P108417 MX Treasury's Office Reform FY09 "How-To" Guidance P110474 MX (FBS) Massive Trnspt. Federal Program FY09 Institutional Development Plan P111257 MEXICO: Global Cat Mutual Bond Risk Mod FY09 Model/Survey P112539 MX Sharing Intn'l Experiences in WSS FY09 "How-To" Guidance P114425 MX (FBS) Queretaro FY09 Institutional Development Plan P101891 MX Public Sector Advisory (MOU) FY10 Client Document Review P103871 MX (FBS) SHCP in Mexico FY10 "How-To" Guidance P110047 MX Accounting Harmonization-Subnat. FY10 "How-To" Guidance P111969 MX Water Sector Flagship L FY10 Client Document Review P113759 MX Poverty Employment Social MOUs FY10 Client Document Review P114097 MX Capital Markets FY10 Client Document Review P114892 MX Energy Sector MoU FY10 Client Document Review P115917 MX (FBS) Yucatán: SIEGEY FY10 "How-To" Guidance P116539 MX (FBS) Productivity of the Poor FY10 "How-To" Guidance P117527 MX (FBS) Poverty & Nutrition Maps FY10 Model/Survey P118546 MX SEDESOL Child Care for FLFP FY10 Client Document Review P120569 MX Pov & Employ Knowl & Coord Srvcs. MOU FY10 Client Document Review P111121 MX (FBS) PEMEX FY11 "How-To" Guidance P115331 MX-M&E and Coordination of Youth Policy FY11 Institutional Development Plan P117870 MX Renew. Energy Assistance Program FY11 "How-To" Guidance P118293 MX-Promoting Mini-Hydro Potential FY11 Client Document Review P120790 MX (FBS) Advisory Services for IFMS FY11 "How-To" Guidance P123304 MX Poverty Employment Social KAS FY11 Client Document Review P126519 Flare/Vent and Fugitive Measurement Wksh FY11 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P116169 MX-Social Protection for Poor FY12 TA/IAR P116549 MX Southern States Sustainable Dev. FY12 TA/IAR P116628 MX RAS PEMEX Strategic Assessment FY12 TA/IAR P120524 FIRST #9051 Mexico: Fin. Crisis Prep. TA FY12 TA/IAR P120697 MX Universal Health Coverage FY12 TA/IAR P122021 CA -MX SD Strategy Muncplty O.P. Blanco FY12 TA/IAR Annexes CPSCR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group P122802 MX Progr Knowledge Advisory Serv in PS FY12 TA/IAR P123123 MX(FBS)Yucatan Foundation State M&E Syst FY12 TA/IAR P125795 Mexico: Royalties Reform for Mining Sec FY12 TA/IAR P126616 MX (FBS) 2011 Advisory Services for PFM FY12 TA/IAR P127214 MX Sustainable Urban Dev. in MX Cities FY12 TA/EPD P128522 MX Poverty Employment Social KAS FY12 TA/IAR P105849 Subnational Climate Change Plans FY13 TA/IAR P112959 Energy Subsidies and Env MoU FY13 TA/IAR P119943 MX Addressing Mexico's Water Challenges FY13 TA/IAR P123248 MX Fiscal Federalism FY13 TA/IAR P128130 MX Housing Finance Program in Mexico FY13 TA/IAR P129043 MX Policy Notes FY13 TA/IAR P129942 MX PKS Fiscal Management TA FY13 TA/IAR P130076 MX Developing Markets for Risk Mngmt FY13 TA/IAR P131285 MX RAS Commodity Price Risk Mgmt JIT FY13 TA/IAR P132084 MX RAS JIT SIDAFF Implementation FY13 TA/IAR P132506 MX - JIT Wkshp on Options for Gas Utiliz FY13 TA/EPD P143218 MX - (JIT) Citizen Security FY13 TA/IAR Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 10/04/2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Mexico, FY08-13 Total Exit Proj ID Project name Evaluated IEG Outcome IEG Risk to DO FY ($M) 2008 P035752 MX Irrigation & Drainage Modernization 303.0 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2008 P066674 MX GEF Indigenous&Community Biodiversity 0.0 Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderate 2008 P077602 MX Tax Admin Institutional Development 52.0 Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2008 P085851 MX Basic Education Dev Phase III 298.4 Satisfactory Moderate 2008 P101342 MX Affordable Housing DPL III 200.5 Moderately Unsatisfactory Significant 2009 P035751 MX Community Forestry II (PROCYMAF II) 21.3 Satisfactory Moderate 2009 P059161 MX GEF Climate Measures in Transport 0.0 Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2009 P066321 MX: III BASIC HEALTH CARE PROJECT 350.0 Moderately Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2009 P080149 MX Decentralized Infrastructure Developm 105.4 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2009 P088080 MX Housing & Urban Technical Assistance 2.5 Moderately Unsatisfactory Negligible To Low 2009 P095510 MX Environmental Sustainability DPL 701.8 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2010 P060908 MX GEF MESO AMERICAN CORRIDOR 0.0 Moderately Unsatisfactory Negligible To Low 2010 P065988 MX GEF Consolidat.Prot Areas (SINAP II) 0.0 Satisfactory Moderate 2010 P088728 MX (APL1) School-Based Management Prog 240.0 Moderately Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2010 P088732 MX Access to Land for Young Farmers 52.6 Unsatisfactory High 2010 P118070 MX Economic Policies DPL 1,503.8 Satisfactory Moderate 2011 P070108 MX Savings & Credit Sector Strengthening 77.6 Moderately Satisfactory Moderate 2011 P089865 MX-(APL1) Innov. for Competitiveness 250.0 Satisfactory Significant 2011 P116965 MX Influenza Prevention and Control 0.0 Not Applicable Not Applicable 2012 P074755 MX State Judicial Modernization Project 13.6 Moderately Unsatisfactory Negligible To Low 2012 P085593 MX (APL I) Tertiary Educ Student Ass 171.0 Moderately Satisfactory Negligible To Low 2012 P112264 MX Strength. Business Env for EcoGrowth 751.9 Satisfactory Moderate 2012 P114271 MX Customs Institutional Strengthening 0.0 Not Rated Non-Evaluable Total 5,095.3 Source: BW Key IEG Ratings as of 10/04/2013 Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Mexico, Exit FY08-13 Total RDO % RDO % Total Outcome Outcome Region Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($) % Sat (No) (No) Sat ($) * Sat (No) * Mexico 5,095.3 23.0 94.7 71.4 90.1 81.8 LCR 19,736.1 220.0 91.1 75.3 82.1 69.0 World 84,372.8 1,093.0 83.6 72.4 66.2 54.5 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 10/04/2013 * With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CPSCR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Mexico and Comparators, FY08-13 Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average 2008-2013 Mexico # Proj 19.0 21.0 26.0 27.0 26.0 20.0 23.2 # Proj At Risk 3.0 5.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 7.0 4.2 % Proj At Risk 15.8 23.8 11.5 18.5 7.7 35.0 18.7 Net Comm Amt 2,165.8 3,949.2 6,910.5 7,640.0 7,775.7 4,558.2 5,499.9 Comm At Risk 154.3 373.6 568.7 287.7 47.2 363.3 299.2 % Commit at Risk 7.1 9.5 8.2 3.8 0.6 8.0 6.2 LCR # Proj 318.0 331.0 349.0 353.0 346.0 332.0 338.2 # Proj At Risk 65.0 74.0 68.0 61.0 68.0 72.0 68.0 % Proj At Risk 20.4 22.4 19.5 17.3 19.7 21.7 20.2 Net Comm Amt 18,337.5 26,198.1 32,161.5 32,557.8 33,341.8 30,843.3 28,906.7 Comm At Risk 3,722.7 3,297.1 5,316.1 3,195.2 4,503.5 6,097.4 4,355.3 % Commit at Risk 20.3 12.6 16.5 9.8 13.5 19.8 15.4 World # Proj 1,832.0 1,925.0 1,990.0 2,059.0 2,029.0 1,965.0 1,966.7 # Proj At Risk 312.0 386.0 410.0 382.0 387.0 414.0 381.8 % Proj At Risk 17.0 20.1 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.1 19.4 Net Comm Amt 110,835.9 135,706.0 162,975.3 171,755.3 173,706.1 176,206.6 155,197.5 Comm At Risk 18,967.7 20,857.8 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,805.6 26,318.2 % Commit at Risk 17.1 15.4 17.8 13.9 14.1 23.2 16.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 10/08/2013 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Mexico and Comparators, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Fiscal Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Mexico Disbursement Ratio (%) 40.4 186.1 76.2 47.4 30.8 46.3 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 457.1 1,324.2 1,618.9 1,255.3 785.8 1,064.9 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 1,132.3 711.7 2,123.8 2,649.0 2,548.6 2,301.7 LCR Disbursement Ratio (%) 24.9 39.5 39.2 30.9 22.0 24.0 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 2,328.8 3,967.3 4,998.4 4,513.5 3,338.4 3,524.0 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 9,367.3 10,043.2 12,756.7 14,614.2 15,201.7 14,712.3 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 22.2 26.5 26.9 22.4 20.8 20.6 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 14,561.7 18,062.5 20,928.1 20,929.3 21,040.7 20,499.0 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 65,651.9 68,128.3 77,755.6 93,495.1 101,207.0 99,546.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 10/07/2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Net Disbursement and Charges for Mexico, FY08-13 (US$ Million) Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY2008 642.1 625.5 16.5 225.2 6.8 -215.4 FY2009 2,511.2 170.9 2,340.2 191.3 7.1 2,141.8 FY2010 4,626.0 686.9 3,939.2 232.0 12.4 3,694.8 FY2011 2,407.3 743.5 1,663.8 246.5 10.2 1,407.0 FY2012 1,907.0 349.9 1,557.1 239.8 4.3 1,313.1 FY2013 1,607.5 380.2 1,227.3 262.6 2.8 962.0 Report Total 13,701.1 2,956.9 10,744.2 1,397.4 43.6 3,682.1 Source: World Bank Client Connection 10/07/13 Annexes CPSCR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Mexico (US$ Million) Development Partners 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Australia 0.13 0.17 0.42 1.33 .. Austria 0.65 0.51 0.85 2.19 .. Belgium 1.36 0.98 0.58 0.65 .. Canada 5.93 4.42 1.4 2.29 .. Czech Republic 0.01 .. .. 0.02 .. Denmark 0.06 .. .. .. .. Finland 0.68 0.9 0.97 0.84 .. France 10.77 13.12 205.82 430.92 .. Germany 39.15 40.79 35.5 91.25 .. Greece 0.07 0.2 0.12 0.12 .. Iceland .. .. .. .. .. Ireland 0.08 0.06 0.08 0.09 .. Italy 5.59 0.62 1.05 0.98 .. Japan -54.69 -30.71 -46.73 -51.99 .. Korea 0.9 0.79 0.55 0.53 .. Luxembourg .. .. .. .. .. Netherlands -0.34 -0.32 -0.27 0.11 .. New Zealand 0.07 0.02 0.03 0.12 .. Norway 0.12 0.02 0.05 8.19 .. Portugal 0.1 0.05 0.03 0.09 .. Spain -15.07 -14.51 5.26 -21.75 .. Sweden 0.03 0.09 0.03 .. .. Switzerland 0.47 0.45 0.33 0.58 .. United Kingdom 6.75 11.64 9.41 5.76 .. United States 102.53 129.43 205.6 374.89 .. DAC Countries, Total 105.35 158.72 421.08 847.21 0 AfDB .. .. .. .. .. AfDF .. .. .. .. .. Arab Fund (AFESD) .. .. .. .. .. AsDB Special Funds .. .. .. .. .. BADEA .. .. .. .. .. CarDB .. .. .. .. .. EBRD .. .. .. .. .. EU Institutions 21.70 6.08 7.51 86.40 .. GAVI .. .. .. .. .. GEF 17.46 12.06 26.78 4.44 .. Global Fund .. .. 3.39 9.96 .. IAEA 0.61 0.35 0.59 0.28 0.69 IBRD .. .. .. .. .. IDA .. .. .. .. .. IDB Sp.Fund -0.49 2.54 7.57 6.25 .. IFAD .. .. .. .. .. IFC .. .. .. .. .. IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) .. .. .. .. .. Isl.Dev Bank .. .. .. .. .. Montreal Protocol .. .. .. .. .. Nordic Dev.Fund .. .. .. .. .. OFID .. .. .. .. .. OSCE .. .. .. .. .. UNAIDS .. 0.04 0.05 0.10 .. UNDP 0.28 0.19 0.15 0.03 .. UNECE .. .. .. .. .. UNFPA 1.66 1.27 1.42 1.14 .. UNHCR .. 0.93 0.39 .. .. UNICEF 0.79 1.00 0.90 0.90 .. UNPBF .. .. .. .. .. UNRWA .. .. .. .. .. Annexes CPSCR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group UNTA 1.03 .. .. .. .. WFP .. .. .. .. .. WHO .. .. .. .. .. Other Multilaterals .. .. .. .. .. Multilateral, Total 43.04 24.46 48.75 109.50 0.69 Bulgaria .. .. .. .. .. Chinese Taipei .. .. .. .. .. Cyprus .. .. .. .. .. Estonia .. .. .. .. .. Hungary .. 0.12 0.09 0.04 .. Israel 0.50 0.87 0.86 1.19 .. Kuwait (KFAED) .. .. .. .. .. Latvia .. .. .. .. .. Liechtenstein .. .. .. .. .. Lithuania .. .. .. .. .. Malta .. .. .. .. .. Poland 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.03 .. Romania .. .. .. 0.03 .. Russia .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. Slovak Republic .. 0.03 .. .. .. Slovenia .. 0.02 .. 0.01 .. Thailand 0.03 0.03 .. 0.01 .. Turkey 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.07 .. United Arab Emirates 0.13 0.13 0.18 0.09 .. Other donor countries .. .. .. .. .. Non-DAC Countries, Total 0.75 1.28 1.24 1.47 0.00 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation .. 6.17 3.51 3.12 .. Private Donors, Total 0.00 6.17 3.51 3.12 0.00 All Development Partners, Total 149.14 190.63 474.58 961.30 0.69 Source: data extracted on 08 Oct 2013 18:29 UTC (GMT) from OECD. Stat CPSCR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 35 Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Mexico, 2008 – 2013 Mexico LAC (All Income Levels) World Series Name 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Average 2008-2013 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 1.0 -6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 .. 1.6 2.8 1.6 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 0.0 -7.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 .. 0.6 1.6 0.6 GNI per capita, PPP (current international $) 13,950.0 13,610.0 14,430.0 15,770.0 16,440.0 .. 14,840.0 11,473.6 11,206.4 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 9,260.0 8,350.0 8,590.0 8,870.0 9,600.0 .. 8,934.0 7,912.4 9,207.0 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 5.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 .. 4.2 4.8 5.0 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 .. 4.0 5.8 3.0 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 37.0 34.0 35.0 36.0 36.0 .. 35.6 32.8 27.0 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 60.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 .. 60.6 61.2 70.0 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 22.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 21.0 .. 20.8 20.2 20.5 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 25.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 24.0 .. 23.6 21.8 21.0 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 28.0 28.0 30.0 32.0 33.0 .. 30.2 24.8 29.5 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 30.0 29.0 32.0 33.0 34.0 .. 31.6 25.0 29.3 Current account balance (% of GDP) -2.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 .. -1.0 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 19.0 23.0 24.0 25.0 .. .. 22.8 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 3.0 4.0 3.0 4.0 .. .. 3.5 3.5 .. Total reserves in months of imports 3.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 .. 3.8 8.4 13.6 Fiscal Accounts * General government revenue (% of GDP) 24.8 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 23.1 23.3 .. .. General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 25.9 27.1 27.2 26.6 27.3 26.2 26.7 .. .. General government net lending/borrowing (% of GDP) -1.1 -4.7 -4.4 -3.4 -3.7 -3.1 -3.4 .. .. General government gross debt (% of GDP) 43.1 44.5 42.9 43.7 43.5 43.5 43.5 .. .. Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 76.0 76.0 77.0 77.0 .. .. 76.5 74.0 70.3 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 96.0 95.0 95.0 97.0 .. .. 95.8 92.3 83.0 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 82.0 83.0 84.0 85.0 .. .. 83.5 80.5 63.0 Improved water source (% of population with access) 93.0 93.0 94.0 94.0 .. .. 93.5 93.5 88.0 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0 14.0 .. 14.6 17.6 37.2 Education School enrollment, preprimary (% gross) 108.0 103.0 101.0 103.0 .. .. 103.8 71.3 47.8 School enrollment, primary (% gross) 114.0 115.0 114.0 113.0 .. .. 114.0 114.3 106.5 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 87.0 87.0 89.0 91.0 .. .. 88.5 89.8 69.5 Population Population, total 114,968,039.0 116,422,752.0 117,886,404.0 119,361,233.0 120,847,477.0 .. 117,897,181.0 595,082,898.0 6,885,767,219.8 Population growth (annual %) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .. 1.0 1.0 1.0 Urban population (% of total) 77.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 .. 77.8 78.6 51.8 Source: DDP as of September 23, 2013 *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, September 2013 (Estimates start after 2012) CPSCR Review Annexes Independent Evaluation Group 37 Annex Table 12: Mexico - Millennium Development Goals Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 57 56 59 58 59 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 50 49 50 45 43 GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) 17,144 17,071 19,108 19,564 19,726 Income share held by lowest 20% 6 4 4 4 5 Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) 14 .. 6 3 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) 4 2 1 2 0 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 4 8 6 5 1 Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) 26 37 32 31 .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) 95 .. 96 98 98 Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) 96 .. 97 98 98 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) 73 79 87 92 95 Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) 89 96 99 100 104 Adjusted net enrollment rate, primary (% of primary school age children) 99 100 99 100 99 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) 12 14 16 24 26 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 96 97 98 98 99 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 99 99 102 105 107 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) .. 86 93 99 97 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment) 36.5 36.1 37.3 39.1 39.6 Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 75 90 96 96 98 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 37 29 22 17 14 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 46 35 25 20 17 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) 81 80 77 71 65 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) 84 86 .. 93 95 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) 63 67 70 74 73 Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 92 85 82 54 50 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 86 .. 98 96 Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. .. .. .. .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 67 46 31 22 23 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 26 27 60 78 76 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 1 1 0 0 0 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 4 3 4 4 4 Forest area (% of land area) 36.2 35.2 34.3 33.7 33.3 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 66 71 75 80 85 Improved water source (% of population with access) 82 86 89 91 94 Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) 1 6 12 14 17 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 2 4 -1 2 8 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports of goods, services and primary income) 18 18 16 10 5 Internet users (per 100 people) 0.0 0.1 5.1 17.2 35.0 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) 0 1 14 44 82 Annexes CPSCR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Telephone lines (per 100 people) 6 10 12 18 17 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 3 3 3 2 2 Other GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 2,740 3,640 4,820 7,520 8,870 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 235.6 347.1 500.9 832.2 1,058.6 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 23.1 20.0 23.9 23.7 25.1 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 71 73 74 75 77 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) 88 .. 91 92 93 Population, total (billions) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Trade (% of GDP) 38.3 58.1 63.9 55.7 64.4 Source: World Development Indicators