The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Serbia | Finance, Competitiveness and Innovation Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 9 | ARCHIVED on 28-Dec-2019 | ISR39770 | Implementing Agencies: Public Policy Secretariat, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development, Ministry of Labor, Employment, Veteran and Social Affairs Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 16-Sep-2015 Effectiveness Date: 31-Mar-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 11-Dec-2017 Original Closing Date: 30-Jun-2019 Revised Closing Date: 30-Jun-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The PDO is to improve the effectiveness and coordination of selected public programs to alleviate constraints to competitivenessand job creation, including investment and export promotion, innovation, active labor market programs, labor intermediation, and activation of social assistance beneficiaries. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The PDO is to improve the effectiveness and coordination of selected public programs to alleviate constraints to competitiveness and job creation, including investment and export promotion, innovation, active labor market programs and labor intermediation. Components Table Name Policy planning, monitoring, and coordination:(Cost $3.00 M) Investment and export promotion:(Cost $22.00 M) Innovation:(Cost $39.55 M) Labor:(Cost $30.00 M) Project management and technical assistance:(Cost $5.20 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 12/28/2019 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Over the reporting period project implementation was mostly satisfactory. Implementation of supported reforms is progressing will, with few exceptions related to DLI 5 (where implementation of external assessment of public RDIs remains significantly delayed) and DLI 8 (where adoption of the Action Plan for ALMPs and profiling of the unemployed is still pending; in turn, implementation of the activities envisaged in the Action Plan is also delayed). However, during the reporting period the project suffered an unexpected and serious loss, as the Head of the PIU suddenly passed away in September. As the PIU and implementing teams adjusted, there were delays in reporting, verification of DLIs and submission of disbursement requests. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Substantial Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic Substantial Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Moderate Substantial Substantial Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial Substantial Substantial Fiduciary Substantial Substantial Substantial Environment and Social Moderate Moderate Moderate Stakeholders Substantial Substantial Substantial Other Moderate Moderate Moderate Overall Substantial Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on investment and export promotion IN00779514 ►New investor leads generated by the reformed investment promotion agency (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 62.00 49.00 33.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779537 ►Participants in export promotion programs that engage in new export activities (annual) (Number, Custom) 12/28/2019 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 85.00 155.00 85.00 200.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 Drop in number of participants is due to elimination and restructuring of some export promotion programs ran by the Serbia Development Agency. New/revised programs will be introduced and the number is Comments: expected to increase in 2019 and 2020. Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on Innovation IN00779515 ►New collaborations facilitated between research organizations and the private sector (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 14.00 14.00 25.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Note: latest available data for this indicator is for end-2018; this indicator will be updated in the next Comments: Project Progress Report by the PIU and reflected in the next ISR. Improve the effectiveness of selected public programs on ALMPs and labor intermediation IN00779536 ►NES registered unemployment cases transitioning into formal job (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 232,280.00 261,720.00 228,747.00 280,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 The number of registered unemployed transitioning into formal job is decreasing, and this reflects positive developments. Namely, there was a decrease in the total number of registered unemployed as a result of the improving labor market conditions. Number of unemployed decreased both in 2018 and 2019, and the pool of unemployed is now lower by about 200,000 compared to baseline 2014. As a result, due to this Comments: exogenous factor and smaller pool of unemployed, absolute number of those transitioning to formal work is lower. However, as a percentage of unemployed, transition to formal employment is consistently increasing - from about 33 percent of unemployed in 2015 to over 50 percent in the most recent data. Overall Comments PDO Note: Depending on the reporting institution and their internal reporting cycles, latest available data for different indicators is end-November, end-June, or end-2018. All of the results indicators will be updated with end-2019 values in the next Project Progress Report, expected in February, and this will be reflected in the next ISR. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Policy planning, monitoring, and coordination IN00779541 12/28/2019 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) ►Annual performance reviews of pilot policy planning, monitoring, and coordination system (to support competitveness and jobs reforms) (see DL1) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 Investment and export promotion IN00779540 ►MoE investment and export promotion programs restructured [DLI 2] (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value DLI Table partial DLI achieved partial DLI achieved DLI Table Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779542 ►Number of documented interests by investors (annual) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 61.00 94.00 49.00 90.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779545 ►Number of firms participating in the new Supplier Development Program (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 29-Mar-2019 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 Innovation IN00779538 ►Private financing catalyzed through IF support programs (Ammount USD) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.3m 3.32 m 3.32 m 3.6m Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Note: latest available data for this indicator is for end-2018; this indicator will be updated in the next Comments: Project Progress Report by the PIU and reflected in the next ISR. IN00779544 ►Enterprises and startups financed through Innovation Fund programs (including MMG) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 11.00 56.00 56.00 75.00 12/28/2019 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Note: latest available data for this indicator is for end-2018; this indicator will be updated in the next Comments: Project Progress Report by the PIU and reflected in the next ISR. IN00779547 Enterprises and startups financed with female owner (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 1.00 9.00 9.00 10.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 IN00779549 ►Innovative products or services developed by MG beneficiary firms (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 16.00 11.00 18.00 25.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779551 ►Innovative products or services launched by MG beneficiary firms (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 3.00 8.00 10.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779553 ►Technology transfer: IF TTF service lines deployed [see DLI 4] (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 7.00 11.00 8.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779555 ►Technology transfer: transactions initiated [see DLI 4] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 33.00 38.00 15.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 28-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779556 ►R&I strategy, action plan, RI Roadmap and public research sector reforms including establishment of Science Fund designed and adopted (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value See DLI Table achieved achieved achieved Date 31-Dec-2014 29-Mar-2019 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779558 ►Science Fund programs initiated (Number, Custom) 12/28/2019 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 29-Mar-2019 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779559 ►Science Fund programs competitive grants awarded (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 Date 29-Dec-2017 29-Mar-2019 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779560 ►Citizen Engagement: Innovation matching grant beneficiary annual survey (number of surveys) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1.00 1.00 3.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 The Innovation Fund has completed the survey of matching grant beneficiaries for 2018. The survey has been sent to 95 applicants, of which 67 replied (about one third of which received grants, and the rest didn't). The survey has included questions both on assessing the application process and on assessing the implementation process. The report with the results has been shared with the Bank and will be used in informing future calls for programs. The survey will be conducted for 2019 as well, with the results available in early 2020. In addition to this, the IF has been conducting other Citizen Engagement activities. These include Open Door Days events running for several weeks after the announcement of call Comments: for proposals, where all interested parties can come and get advice and guidance from the IF about the programs. (One of the announcements for the Collaborative Grant Scheme program is available here: http://www.inovacionifond.rs/info/cetvrtkom-otvorena-vrata-u-fondu. Earlier Open Door Days for program related to Mini and Matching Grants is available here: http://www.innovationfund.rs/open-door- days-mini-matching-grants-programs-4/ and for the Collaborative Grant Scheme is available here: http://www.innovationfund.rs/open-door-days-collaborative-grant-scheme-program/). Also, the IF organized several workshops, both for potential applicants and for awardees. Labor IN00779539 ►NES registered female unemployment cases transitioning into formal job (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 122,491.00 139,117.00 123,412.00 145,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 See comment for PDO indicator on number of unemployed transitioning to formal employment. Comments: IN00779543 ►Number of field visits to employers per year by the NES (Number) (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 15,927 (field visits) 18,519 23,604 18,000 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 12/28/2019 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) IN00779546 ►% of total NES staff that is operating as certified case worker [DLI 6] (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 88.14 88.07 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 30-Sep-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779548 ►Standard Deviation of mean case load per branch office over all branch offices [DLI 7] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 381.00 252.00 271.00 260.00 Date 01-Jan-2015 31-Dec-2018 30-Sep-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779550 ►Gross placement rate of NES start-up support program for self-employment 6 months from completion (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 95.00 98.53 94.01 98.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 Reported rate is for gross placement, while baseline and target values were originally for net placement. Comments: Baseline and target values have been updated to also refer to gross placement rate. IN00779552 ►Gross placement rate of NES hiring subsidy program for new employment 6 months from completion (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 84.00 84.58 84.55 85.00 Date 31-Dec-2013 31-Dec-2018 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 Reported rate is for gross placement, while baseline and target values were originally for net placement. Comments: Baseline and target values have been updated to also refer to gross placement rate. IN00779554 ►Number of new or re-designed ALMPs in the NES [DLI 8] (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 Date 31-Jan-2014 29-Mar-2019 29-Nov-2019 31-Dec-2020 IN00779557 ►Citizen engagement: Number of employers reached by client satisfaction and needs survey (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,100.00 1,100.00 3,000.00 Date 31-Dec-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2020 Comments: Survey for 2019 has not been completed, thus the latest available value is for the survey from previous year. Value for 2019 will be available early in 2020. In addition to this survey, NES is performing other 12/28/2019 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) citizen engagement activities. For example about 70 job fairs have been organized across the country in 2019, with over 50,000 unemployed and about 1,000 employers attending. NES is conducting regular field visits to employers (see indicator above). It also performs regular surveys of unemployed to assess the satisfaction with services provided. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P152104 IBRD-85280 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 48.29 52.13 48% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P152104 IBRD-85280 Effective 16-Sep-2015 07-Oct-2015 31-Mar-2016 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2021 Cumulative Disbursements 12/28/2019 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Serbia Competitiveness and Jobs (P152104) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 10-May-2018 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/28/2019 Page 9 of 9