78547 For Official Use Only CPSCR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CPS Data Country: Croatia CPS Year: FY09 CAS/CPS Period: FY09- FY12 CPSCR Review Period: FY09- FY13 Date of this review: 6/12/2013 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY09-FY13 Croatia Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) of FY09 and CPS Progress Report of FY12, and assesses the CPS Completion Report (CPSCR). The strategy, initially IBRD-only, became formally a joint strategy between the IBRD and IFC at CPSPR stage. This review covers the joint program of the two institutions. ii. Given Croatia’s overarching priority to enter the EU, the main goal of the CPS was to support the completion of Croatia’s EU accession process, the rapid convergence of its income level with that of other EU members, and a decent quality of life. To do so, the WBG program aimed at contributing in four areas: (i) sustaining macroeconomic stability; (ii) strengthening private-sector-led growth and accelerating convergence with the EU, (iii) improving the quality and efficiency in the social sectors, and (iv) increasing the sustainability of long-term development. Supporting Croatia’s EU accession was a cross-cutting theme. The CPSPR, which was prepared in FY12, the last year of the original CPS period, reaffirmed the objectives of the CPS and maintained the same four pillars. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of the CPS as moderately satisfactory, concurring with the CPSCR. Bank support contributed to significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework for the financial sector and to improvement in tax compliance. Fiscal consolidation in 2012 helped meet the deficit target, and there was some progress in piloting performance-based budgeting, although the results of the pilots are unknown. The Bank also contributed to improvement in environmental management and nature protection, as well as expansion of energy efficiency programs and the slow (below expectation) development of renewable energy. Progress was made in improving Emergency Medical Services and some aspects of the pension system, although there is no evidence for enhanced efficiency of health spending or strengthened sustainability of the pension system. The efficiency of the judiciary improved, but policy reversals led to lapses in public sector reforms. There was greater commercialization of R&D, but the expected increase in R&D spending and the private sector’s share in it did not materialize. Certain aspects of the business environment improved and privatization slowly moved forward, but the role of the private sector in the economy did not increase. Although private concessions were signed, port capacity did not expand as much as expected due to construction delays. Some initiatives were undertaken to improve the education system, but data on student learning are inconclusive. The Bank’s interventions helped disadvantaged communities, but their impact on regional and urban/rural disparities or the capacity of regional/local authorities is unknown. The Bank’s support in agriculture was helpful for meeting EU requirements, but its effects on agricultural productivity are unclear. Also unclear is whether the intermediate steps undertaken to improve the efficiency and transparency of social programs have achieved the intended outcomes. CASCR/CPSCR Peer Reviewed by: CASCR Review Reviewed by: Coordinator Juan J. Fernández-Ansola, Lorenzo Perez, Consultant, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Xiaolun Sun, Senior Evaluation Officer, Surajit Goswami, Takatoshi Kamezawa, IEGCC Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group iv. IEG rates the WBG performance as moderately satisfactory concurring with the CPSCR. The broad CPS objectives were consistent with Croatia’s ambitions and well aligned with the country’s own development programs. The choice of engagement areas supported the overall CPS objectives, while the choice of instruments was generally appropriate for contributing to the relevant country goals, although the lack of clearly articulated CPS objectives in some instances makes it difficult to determine whether the proposed interventions would be able to bring about the expected outcomes. Indeed, the various deficiencies of the results framework denied the country team an implementation management tool to monitor progress and assess achievement. The AAA program was well designed, but very small relative to the lending portfolio and there was no appreciable shift of focus from projects to knowledge services. Supervision was adequate and portfolio performance was on par with regional average. The WBG demonstrated sufficient flexibility in adjusting its program to changing country circumstances and updating the results framework accordingly (although not addressing the initial deficiencies). The Bank appears to have coordinated well with its main partners (EU and IMF), but there is no information on IBRD-IFC collaboration. Overall, IFC investments contributed to the competitiveness agenda by helping domestic investee companies improve their operations. However, the planned IFC advisory services did not happen, and IFC’s contribution to the CPS objectives was not captured by the results framework. v. IEG concurs with the CPSPR lessons. In particular, IEG agrees that monitoring and evaluation of the attainment of specific CPS objectives, rather than deliverables, would be beneficial in assessing the WBG program’s contribution to country goals. Moreover, existing capacity constraints for policy implementation would be exacerbated by the need to absorb the expected quantum leap in available EU funds. It is therefore important for the WBG to devote greater attention to capacity building, through non-lending TA for example, to help Croatia use EU funds and other resources effectively. 3. WBG Strategy Summary Overview of CAS/CPS Relevance: Country Context: 1. In the years prior to the CPS period, Croatia enjoyed strong economic growth fueled by abundant foreign capital inflows. GDP growth averaged about 5 percent during 2003-07 with private consumption and investment (mostly in construction sector) driving economic growth. GDP per capita (PPP) increased from 55 percent to 64 percent of the EU average and absolute poverty declined from 11 percent in 2004 to 6.1 percent in 2008. The beginning of the CPS period coincided with the onset of the global financial crisis. GDP fell by 7 percent in 2009, and another compounded 3 percent during 2010-12. Unemployment increased from 8 percent in 2008 to 14 percent in 2013 and the economy is struggling to restart growth in 2013. The medium term prospects appear constrained by deep-rooted competitiveness problems. Croatia is set to become the 28th member of the EU on July 1, 2013, realizing one of its main ambitions since 2003. 2. The Government’s strategy was described in the Program of the Government of Croatia 2008- 11, which underscored structural reforms for sustained and regionally balanced growth. The main reform plans had five focus areas: (i) completing judicial and public administration reforms; (ii) completing the privatization process and seriously tackle corruption; (iii) intensifying development of SMEs and increasing agricultural competitiveness while pursuing a balanced development of all regions; (iv) fostering the tourism sector with further development of infrastructure; and (v) promoting a knowledge- based society. This was complemented by a series of programs aimed at EU accession. In April 2010, the Government launched a comprehensive Economic Recovery Program for 2010-20 that aimed at (i) improving the business environment with the finalization of the privatization agenda, public administration reform and acceleration of judicial reform and anti-corruption efforts; (ii) increasing the contribution of For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group labor to growth by addressing skill mismatches through education reform and advancing the flexibility of the labor market; and (iii) deepening integration and supporting innovation. Objectives of the WBG Strategy: 3. Given Croatia’s overarching priority to enter the EU, the main goal of the CPS was to support the completion of Croatia’s EU accession process, the rapid convergence of its income level with that of other EU members, and a decent quality of life. To do so, the WBG program aimed at contributing in four areas: (i) sustaining macroeconomic stability; (ii) strengthening private-sector-led growth and accelerating convergence with the EU, (iii) improving the quality and efficiency in the social sectors, and (iv) increasing the sustainability of long-term development. Supporting Croatia’s EU accession was a cross-cutting theme. The CPSPR, which was prepared in FY12, the last year of the original CPS period, reaffirmed the objectives of the CPS and maintained the same four pillars. Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program: There was consistency between the country context, Croatia’s EU ambitions, and the Government’s programs, and the CPS was well aligned with these programs. The four engagement areas addressed the key issues of the EU accession agenda and mapped well into key country development goals. The WBG demonstrated sufficient flexibility in adjusting its program to support the authorities in response to the adverse effects of the global crisis, and geared the CPS framework to a stronger EU accession focus. 5. Relevance of Design. The CPS was designed at a time when EU accession was a key objective for Croatia. Therefore its goal to support the completion of Croatia’s EU accession process was appropriate. The choice of instrument was also appropriate to achieve the CPS objectives, except in a few cases where the Bank’s interventions were too limited in scope or not sufficiently focused to achieve the expected outcomes (e.g., a reduction in rural/urban disparities, targeting of social benefits). The AAA program was small relative to the lending portfolio, especially in the context of Croatia’s high income status, and the planned transition from a focus on projects to knowledge did not lead to more AAA work being delivered in the second half of the CPS period. A joint IBRD-IFC program was planned in a number of areas (e.g., investment climate, infrastructure, climate change), but there was not enough detail, partly due to IFC’s business model, to assess whether IFC’s program was designed to make a significant contribution to achieving CPS objectives. 6. Strength of the Results Framework. The results framework was weak in that it did not clearly articulate the CPS objectives to be achieved during the strategy period in support of the country goals. In some cases, the CPS objectives were rephrasing of the country goals (e.g., strengthened regulatory/supervisory framework for banks and non-banks); in other cases, they were outcome indicators to be used to gauge attainment of the underlying CPS objectives (e.g., improved tax compliance rate from 84 to 87 percent). Most of the outcomes were specific to IBRD lending operations and did not reflect the aggregate contribution of the WBG. In particular, IFC’s contribution and IBRD-IFC synergies were not reflected in the results framework. Moreover, the outcome indicators were generally not measurable because they lacked baselines and targets. Consequently, as noted in the CPSCR, there lacked a mechanism to monitor the progress in achieving the CAS program’s objectives. The CPSPR introduced substantial changes to the outcome indicators to account for the adjustment to the WBG program, but did not address the fundamental issues with the results framework. 7. Risk Identification and Mitigation. The CPS identified three risks (external vulnerability, uneven reform performance, and capacity weakness), but did not propose specific mitigation measures to deal with these risks. The CPSPR reconfirmed the validity of these risks, all of which had materialized to some extent, and highlighted the risks of uneven reform performance and project For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group implementation risks (due to poor capacity), but mentioned only regular Joint Portfolio Reviews as the instrument for addressing the implementation risks. Although the Bank responded to the global financial crisis with quick-disbursing budget support, the negative impact of uneven reform performance was unmitigated and contributed to the under-achievement of several CPS objectives. Overview of CPS Implementation: Lending and Investments: 8. At the beginning of the CPS period, 16 IBRD-financed projects totaling $1.2 billion were ongoing. During the CPS period, an additional 11 projects were approved for $1.1 billion, compared to the CPS base case envelop of $1.0-1.4 billion or the upside scenario of $1.4-18 billion. Nearly half of the CPS financing was for two budget support operations, which were envisaged in the CPS only for the upside scenario to support reforms to promote governance and private sector development. In the event, the DPLs were used to mitigate the impact of the financial crisis. Correspondingly, a number of planned investment loans were dropped as government priorities shifted (disaster risk management, education, and irrigation) and as the Bank decided not to engage in certain sectors (railway and energy). Thirteen trust fund (TF) operations were active at the start of the CPS for a total of $41.5 million; three new TF projects were approved during the CPS period for $8.6 million. These activities complemented the on-going IBRD operations. 9. The number of projects at risk oscillated between 1 and 3 (8 and 21 percent) during the CPS period. This was broadly in line with the averages of 12-20 percent of projects at risk in the ECA region. IEG reviewed the completion reports of 14 projects and rated the development outcomes positively in 10 of the projects, including a highly satisfactory rating for the GEF project on ecosystem conservation. This shows good results for Bank projects, although at 71 percent, the success rate was lower than the ECA regional average of 79 percent. The Implementation Status Reports rate 76 percent of the 17 projects under implementation (or closed recently) as satisfactory or moderately satisfactory, slightly better than the success rate in the IEG-rated projects. 10. Nine IFC investment projects were in operation at inception of the CPS period for $349 million of net commitment. The largest investment was in commercial banking, but three quarters of the investments were in various MAS sectors (e.g., agribusiness, tourism, retail, etc.). During the review period, IFC committed $174.8 million in six projects ($143.5 million from partners): manufacturing, wind-power generation, and retail, of which five were in 2012-13. Croatia also received $100 million of IFC investments in the region. MIGA was not covered under the CPS or CPSPR, but had a large program, underwriting 7 projects with a gross exposure of $955 million for projects in the banking sector and retail chains. 11. IEG rated a banking project from FY05 as mostly successful. IFC supervision data present a mixed picture: investments in banking, agribusiness, and retail have been successful, those in a hotel group and steel pipes have produced poor results, while it is too early to judge investments in wind- power generation, agricultural machinery manufacturing, and branded retail. The regional investment in metal scrap recycling is doing well, but the one in household equipment less so (in restructuring at the moment). Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 12. IBRD delivered 6 Economic and Sector Works (ESW) and 4 Technical Assistance (TA) tasks. Although the CPSPR foresaw a transition from a focus on lending to AAA, there was no appreciable change in the pace of knowledge service delivery during the CPS period. These knowledge activities supported the CPS objectives by focusing on key areas of engagement (e.g., fiscal sustainability frameworks, pension reform options, EU convergence, etc.). The policy note on Crisis Impact: Poverty & Labor Markets (FY10) was a timely analysis that provided the authorities with information on the For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group social effects of the crisis. Overall, however, information on the impact of the AAA is lacking. 13. IFC continued to implement two advisory services projects approved before the CPS period. The projects, which amounted to $513,552 of IFC managed funds, were completed in FY08 and FY09, respectively, and both were rated positively by IEG PCR reviews. IFC did not add advisory services during the CPS period despite indications in the CPSPR of projects on, and attempts by IFC to offer, PPP advisory in infrastructure. Instead, IFC implemented a few advisory interventions (e.g., clean production audit) for its investment clients. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 14. The European Commission (EC) and IMF were the main partners of the WBG. The IBRD-EC partnership was broad, with the Bank helping prepare Croatia to meet the requirements under different EU acquis chapters. The IMF did not support Croatia financially, but jointly conducted the FSAP update and designed appropriate follow-up. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 15. In the period FY09-FY13, INT recorded more than 15 allegations of fraud and corruption, and found sufficient basis to open 7 cases. One of these was substantiated and referred. IEG is not aware of safeguard issues in the WBG’s portfolio. Overview of Achievement by Objective: Pillar I: Sustaining macroeconomic stability 16. Under pillar I, the CPS aimed to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public finances and strengthen financial sector supervision. 17. Enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of public finances. The three CAS targets (fiscal deficit reduced to below 5 percent, tax compliance rate improved to 87 percent, and performance budgeting piloted) were all met, although there is no indication that performance indicators have moved beyond the pilot phase due to lukewarm political commitment to implement performance- oriented budgeting. The recent IMF mission (February 2013) noted the need for further fiscal consolidation as the deficit reached in 2012 (4 percent of GDP) required a structural adjustment of 1½ percentage points of GDP, while public debt remained unsustainable and interest costs were rising rapidly. Long-term fiscal sustainability would require giving greater priority to reforms that lead to fiscal consolidation, such as streamlining spending in social sectors and accelerating the restructuring and privatization of loss-making railways and shipyards. The Bank supported this objective through two DPLs and knowledge services. The Fiscal, Social and Financial Sector DPL (FY10) helped strengthen public finance at the time of the crisis. IEG’s ICR review rated the project’s development outcome as satisfactory, but noted the significant risk to the sustainability of the project outcome as high wage, pension and health care spending was suppressing the needed capital spending for growth. The Economic Recovery DPL series (FY11, FY13) intended to support a short term reform program introduced by the authorities in April 2010, particularly on issues of public spending. The Revenue Administration Modernization Project (FY07) supported institutional reforms of Croatia’s Tax Administration. 18. Strengthen financial sector supervision. All the measures recommended by the FSAP Update (FY08) - a system for inter-agency coordination on financial crisis preparedness, new risk management rules for credit institutions that comply with Basel II pillars, and upgrading of securities market and investment services supervision to meet Basel II standards - were introduced as prior conditions to the Fiscal, Social, and Financial Sector DPL (FY10). The IMF 2011 Article IV consultation For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group welcomed the proactive approach of the central bank to ensure effective bank regulation, as well as its plans to introduce gradually counter-cyclical capital buffers in the medium term, when the economic recovery reaches a sustainable path. The IMF 2012 Article IV consultation noted that despite a slow deterioration in asset quality, the largely foreign-owned banking sector was stable, well-capitalized, and resilient to shocks. 19. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar I as satisfactory. Bank support contributed to significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework for the financial sector and improvement in tax compliance. Some progress seems to have been made on performance-based budgeting, although there is no information on the results of the pilot implementation of such an approach. Following fiscal weakening that reflected a very sharp contraction of economic activities, there was fiscal consolidation in 2012, although more would be needed. Pillar II: Strengthening private-sector-led growth and accelerating EU convergence 20. Under Pillar II, the CPS aimed to enhance public sector governance, improve the investment climate, align the provision of infrastructure and related services with demand, and promote the commercialization of public sector research and private sector innovation, and increase the share of R&D spending. 21. Enhance public sector governance. Good progress was made initially with the support of the Programmatic Adjustment Loan 2 (FY07). However, policy reversals after the change of government in 2008 reduced civil service independence from politics, with the role of national directors downgraded and the position of assistant ministers reinstituted as political appointees. Consequently, Croatia’s government effectiveness score declined from 0.58 in 2008 to 0.55 in 2011 according to World Bank Governance Indicators, and its percentile ranking fell from 71.4 to 69.2. The CASCR reports that human resource management continued to be strengthened under the Economic Recovery DPL (FY11) through the Law on Amendments to the Civil Service Salaries, which inter alia promoted a performance-based remuneration system. Good progress was also made in improving the efficiency in the judiciary (e.g., reducing court case backlog and case processing time, establishing Integrated Case Management System) as required by EU accession demands, although latest ISR of the Justice Sector Support Project (FY10) notes a slowdown in project implementation since mid-2012 mainly due to insufficient project budgetary allocations arising from severe budgetary constraints. In addition to the lending operations, ongoing AAA such as the Justice Sector Public Expenditure and Institutional Review (FY13) and Case Study on Justice and Anticorruption Reform (FY13) is supporting continued justice system improvement. 22. Improve the investment climate. Croatia made limited progress in removing the regulatory obstacles for doing business: although the time and cost for business and land registrations were reduced, little was changed in the other areas. Moreover, most of the progress was made before 2011 and Croatia’s Ease of Doing Business ranking declined two years in a row during 2011-13. Overall, although key state-owned assets continued to be privatized, the CPS target of increasing the private sector’s share of GDP to 80 percent was missed by a wide margin - the CASCR reports that the share reached 70 percent in 2011, although the CPS indicated that it was already at 70 percent in 2008. The main Bank support for this objective was the Economic Recovery DPL (FY11), which helped privatize or liquidate 237 companies. In addition, the Export Finance Intermediation Loan (FY10, FY13) provided financing to 61 export-oriented companies in a seriously constrained environment. According to the 2012 Competitiveness Report of the World Economic Forum, restrictive labor regulations remained one of the most problematic factors for doing business. The Bank�s AAA work notes an urgent need to increase incentives for labor participation, lower hiring and dismissal cost, make work hours more flexible, and reduce wage rigidities. However, the Bank’s support for labor reforms was postponed with the postponement of the Economic Recovery DPL2 due to difficulties in passing For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group legislation in the midst of local and European Parliament elections. 23. IFC’s investments in retail, commercial bank, and agribusiness/agricultural machinery contributed to the development of the private sector by improving investee companies’ competitiveness, facilitating post-privatization restructuring in one of the priority sectors (agribusiness), and signaling an improved investment climate and private sector growth opportunities in Croatia. On the other hand, the CPSCR overstates the effect of IFC’s investment in steel pipe manufacturing because the company closed its business in FY12 (IFC got fully repaid). Similarly, the effect of the IFC’s regional insurance project is overstated because although the commitment was made more than a year ago, no disbursement from IFC has been made yet. 24. Align the provision of infrastructure and related services with demand. The CPS discussed a number of issues related to improving integration into the trans-European networks, the PPP framework and energy generation and transmission capacities. The proposed outcome indicator measured increases in the capacity of seaports through private sector investment. Due to implementation delays in the Bank’s projects - the Rijeka Gateway Project (FY04-FY13) and the Trade and Transport Integration Project (FY07) – construction work on the Rijeka and Ploce ports is still in progress. On the positive side, the CPSCR reports that both ports have signed concession agreements with private operators on cost recovery basis. 25. Promote commercialization of public sector research and private sector innovation, and increase the share of R&D spending. Commercialization of public research increased. The Science and Technology Project (FY06) (rated satisfactory by IEG) helped universities and research institutes establish spillover companies and get licensing agreements and patents. It also supported R&D spending through programs that targeted SMEs. However, the targets of increasing the share of R&D spending in GDP to 1.1 percent and the share of R&D spending by private sector to two thirds were not met (they were at 0.8 percent and 32 percent, respectively). 26. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar II as moderately unsatisfactory. All the objectives under this pillar showed partial achievements. The efficiency of the judiciary improved, but policy reversals led to regressions in public sector reforms. Some progress was made in selected aspects of business environment and privatization slowly moved forward, but the overall doing business reforms were fragmented and the role of the private sector in the economy did not increase. The expected expansion of port capacity was not realized due to significant delays in port construction, although private concessions had been signed. Good progress was made in commercializing R&D, but R&D spending as a share of GDP and the private sector’s share in it did not increase. Pillar III: Improving the quality and efficiency in social sectors 27. Under pillar III the CPS aimed to increase the sustainability and equity of the pension system, improve health efficiency and outcomes, enhance the education system to support a knowledge-based economy, and improve social inclusion and better target social assistance. 28. Increase the sustainability and equity of the pension system. The CPS outcome was moderately relevant for assessing the sustainability or equity of the pension system as it focused only on the administrative cost of the second pillar of the system. Although the administrative cost was reduced through a reduction of mandatory pension fund’s asset management fee, there is no indication of increased sustainability and equity of the pension system. As noted in the Bank’s Policy Notes - Reform Support (FY12), measures taken to reduce privileged pensions and to suspend pension indexation, which were supported by the Bank’s Economic Recovery DPL (FY11), were not enough to make the pension system fiscally and socially sustainable in face of worsening demographic trends, low labor participation rates, and overly generous privileged pensions. The For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group Bank’s Pension System Reform Project (FY03-FY09) supported institutional changes to introduce the multi-pillar pension system, but did not deal explicitly with the sustainability and equity of the pension system. The Bank maintained a dialogue with the authorities through AAA work. 29. Improve health system efficiency and outcomes. The CPS results matrix provided no metric or target for measuring health spending efficiency or Emergency Medical Services (EMS) effectiveness. Indirect measures suggest some improvement: hospitals are being paid based on services and performance, and an e-prescription system has been put in place that should reduce paperwork for patients, doctors, and pharmacies and allow for more monitoring and control of drug expenditures. Optimization of the hospital network is underway and co-payment exemptions are being streamlined through legislation. Yet, Croatia spends 7.8 percent of GDP on health, which is among the highest for new EU members, and health expenditures are almost entirely publicly funded. The latest IMF mission statement (February 2013) notes that despite the fiscal adjustment achieved in 2012, there were significant overruns in pension/health care spending. With regard to Emergency Medical Services, the latest ISR of the Bank’s Development of Emergency Medical Services and Investment Planning Project (FY09) reports considerable progress, with project indicators on field calls, emergency care outcomes, and professional certification of health professionals all met. There is no information on the progress in health outcomes, which as measured by life expectancy at birth and infant mortality are in line with those of high income countries. 30. Enhance the education system to support a knowledge-based economy. The outcome sought focused on improvement in student leaning as measured by Croatian students’ PISA scores vis-à-vis EU average in 2009. By this measure, which largely reflect change in the pre-CPS period, student performance deteriorated. The CASCR reports that scores on a school exit exam (Matura) increased during 2010-11 even though the thresholds for passing the exam were raised by 5-8 percent. Some improvement in the education system was also noted: a new national curriculum framework was developed and approved for basic education; a national center for external evaluation was established; the Matura exam was introduced for all gymnasiums and Vocational Education and Training students wishing to enroll in tertiary education, etc. The Bank supported this objective through the Education Sector Development Project (FY06-FY12), but the planned Education II project did not materialize. 31. Improve social inclusion and better target social assistance. The results framework did not propose any indicators to measure improvement in the efficiency and transparency of social programs. The CASCR reports on the intermediate steps undertaken with Bank support. For example, the Social Welfare Development Project (SWDP, FY05-FY11) helped develop and implement a new social policy planning methodology and a Management Information System software, and introduced a one-stop-office work model in social welfare centers. The Economic Recovery DPL (FY11) supported the enactment of the Social Welfare Law in 2011, which aimed to reduce social exclusion and improve efficiency of the system, including through better targeting. However, it is unclear whether these activities have led to efficiency gains in Croatia’s social programs. IEG’s ICR review of the SWDP rated its development outcome as moderately unsatisfactory, noting that the project did not implement activities intended to improve the targeting of benefits and services. There is no information on the implementation of the Social Welfare Law of 2011. 32. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar III as moderately unsatisfactory. The lack of outcome indicators (with baselines and targets) makes it difficult to assess progress under this pillar. There is indication that Emergency Medical Services and education system improved. However, despite various cost-saving measures undertaken through legislation and ordinances, there is no evidence that the efficiency of health spending improved appreciably and Croatia’s health spending remained very high compared to peers. Sustainability of the pension system improved marginally; while student learning did not show improvement as measured by PISA scores. It is not clear whether the intermediate steps taken to improve the efficiency and transparency of social programs have For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group achieved the intended outcomes. Pillar IV: Increasing the sustainability of long-term development 33. Under pillar IV the CPS aimed to strengthen environment management and nature protection, prepare for adapting to and mitigating climate change, and reduce regional and rural/urban disparities. 34. Strengthen environment management and nature protection. In the CASPR results matrix, the two original quantitative outcome indicators were replaced by three qualitative indicators, each underpinned by a specific Bank lending project. Overall, there appears to be progress in Bank project areas, although the lack of baselines and targets makes it difficult to assess progress against expectations. Under the Inland Waters Project (FY07-FY13), 200,000 people in selected inland municipalities benefited from water and water treatment infrastructure constructed and/or upgraded. Flood retention volume increased by a third. The project also provided TA to improve the financial capacities of the local utilities and helped prepare 8 projects for EU financing. Under the Coastal Cities Pollution Control Project 1 & 2 (FY04-FY10, FY09), notable progress was made in providing efficient and sustainable wastewater services in coastal municipalities, leading to an increase in the population connected to wastewater collection system increased 56 to 68 percent, an increase in treated wastewater increased from 6 to 45 percent, and 98 percent of samples from monitoring areas comply with applicable standard. Finally, under the EU Natura 2000 Integration Project (FY11), progress was made in Ecological Network investments - out of 35 planned investments, seven were completed and nine were in the tendering process, mainly in visitation centers and educational/hike trails, nature parks, etc. There was trust fund financing attached to each of these projects. 35. Prepare for adapting to and mitigating climate change. The CPS focused on the implementation of renewable energy incentives framework and scaled-up roll-out of energy efficiency programs. Key legislation and regulatory framework for renewable energy were introduced in July 2007 with support from the GEF Renewable Energy Resources Project (RER, FY05-FY10). However, the development of renewable energy progressed much more slowly than anticipated. Under the RER, five projects of 83 MW capacity were targeted, but only one wind power project with 23 MW capacity reached financial closure by the end of the grant period. Against the target of supplying 3.5 percent of national energy with new renewable from the project, only 0.32 percent was achieved. The CPSCR reports that 37 MW achieved financial closure during the CPS period. IFC invested in two wind-power projects representing about 30 percent of the wind installed capacity in Croatia, although neither is producing energy yet. Progress was moderate in rolling out energy efficiency programs. Under the Energy Efficiency Project (FY04-FY10) and a parallel GEF grant, a core developer of energy efficiency projects was created within Croatia’s national power utility, which implemented 31 commercial energy efficiency projects on a for-profit basis with a total cumulative value of $29.5 million, slightly below the original project estimates. However, the project had limited success with respect to the critical objective of addressing the lack of energy efficiency financing, as it was not able to overcome the rigid collateral requirements imposed by local financiers and banks remained concerned about energy end- user credit risks. 36. Reduce regional and urban/rural disparities. The CPS aimed to contribute to this goal by strengthening the local capacity to plan and implement high-quality development projects and by improving agricultural productivity and alignment with EU aquis. However, no indicator was proposed to measure progress in any of these areas. The CASCR reports on achievement of the Social and Economic Recovery Project (FY05-FY11) in disadvantaged areas, including provision of small community infrastructure or grants to SMEs and cooperatives and creation of 1,359 jobs. There is no data on the extent to which these activities helped reduce regional disparities and/or build the capacities of regional and local authorities to manage the expected EU development funds. The Agricultural Acquis Cohesion Project (FY06-FY13), which was supported by a GEF grant, helped Croatia implement institutional changes to meet the EU requirements. There is no information on For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group changes in agricultural productivity and no indication that the Bank contributed to agricultural productivity. 37. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar IV as moderately satisfactory. The Bank contributed to improved environmental management and nature protection, as well as the slow progress of developing renewable energy and improving energy efficiency. While its interventions helped disadvantaged communities, there is no information on their impact on regional or urban/rural disparities or the capacity of regional/local authorities for managing development projects. Support in agriculture was helpful for meeting EU requirements, but its effects on agricultural productivity are unclear. Objectives IEG Rating Pillar I: Sustaining macroeconomic stability Satisfactory Pillar II: Strengthening private-sector-led growth and Moderately Unsatisfactory accelerating EU convergence Pillar III: Improving the quality and efficiency in social sectors Moderately Unsatisfactory Pillar IV: Increasing sustainability of long-term development Moderately Satisfactory 4. Overall IEG Assessment CPSCR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall outcome: 38. IEG rates the overall outcome of the CPS as moderately satisfactory, concurring with the CPSCR. Bank support contributed to significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory framework for the financial sector and to improvement in tax compliance. Fiscal consolidation in 2012 helped meet the deficit target, and there was some progress in piloting performance-based budgeting, although the results of the pilots are unknown. The Bank also contributed to improvement in environmental management and nature protection, as well as expansion of energy efficiency programs and the slow (below expectation) development of renewable energy. Progress was made in improving Emergency Medical Services and some aspects of the pension system, although there is no evidence for enhanced efficiency of health spending or strengthened sustainability of the pension system. The efficiency of the judiciary improved, but policy reversals led to lapses in public sector reforms. There was greater commercialization of R&D, but the expected increase in R&D spending and the private sector’s share in it did not materialize. Certain aspects of the business environment improved and privatization slowly moved forward, but the role of the private sector in the economy did not increase. Although private concessions were signed, port capacity did not expand as much as expected due to construction delays. Some initiatives were undertaken to improve the education system, but data on student learning are inconclusive. The Bank’s interventions helped disadvantaged communities, but their impact on regional and urban/rural disparities or the capacity of regional/local authorities is unknown. The Bank’s support in agriculture was helpful for meeting EU requirements, but its effects on agricultural productivity are unclear. Also unclear is whether the intermediate steps undertaken to improve the efficiency and transparency of social programs have achieved the intended outcomes. WBG Performance: 39. IEG rates the WBG performance as moderately satisfactory concurring with the CPSCR. The broad CPS objectives were consistent with Croatia’s ambitions and well aligned with the country’s own For Official Use Only CPSCR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group development programs. The choice of engagement areas supported the overall CPS objectives, while the choice of instruments was generally appropriate for contributing to the relevant country goals, although the lack of clearly articulated CPS objectives in some instances makes it difficult to determine whether the proposed interventions would be able to bring about the expected outcomes. Indeed, the various deficiencies of the results framework denied the country team an implementation management tool to monitor progress and assess achievement. The AAA program was well designed, but very small relative to the lending portfolio and there was no appreciable shift of focus from projects to knowledge services. Supervision was adequate and portfolio performance was on par with regional average. The WBG demonstrated sufficient flexibility in adjusting its program to changing country circumstances and updating the results framework accordingly (although not addressing the initial deficiencies). The Bank appears to have coordinated well with its main partners (EU and IMF), but there is no information on IBRD-IFC collaboration. Overall, IFC investments contributed to the competitiveness agenda by helping domestic investee companies improve their operations. However, the planned IFC advisory services did not happen, and IFC’s contribution to the CPS objectives was not captured by the results framework. 5. Assessment of CAS/CPS Completion Report 40. The CPSCR provides a candid analysis of CPS implementation. Although the strategy was jointly implemented by IBRD and IFC, the coverage of IFC program was limited and the analysis less rigorous than IBRD. For example it does not discuss IFC contributions or the synergy between the two institutions in its assessment of CAS outcomes. Moreover, the analysis is mostly about the results of specific IBRD lending projects rather than the achievement of CAS outcomes, in part because the results framework did not lay out clearly what the targeted outcomes were. The confused results matrix makes it difficult to assess the success of the CPS. 6. Findings and Lessons 41. IEG concurs with the CPSPR lessons. In particular, IEG agrees that monitoring and evaluation of the attainment of specific CPS objectives, rather than deliverables, would be beneficial in assessing the WBG program’s contribution to country goals. Moreover, existing capacity constraints for policy implementation would be exacerbated by the need to absorb the expected quantum leap in available EU funds. It is therefore important for the WBG to devote greater attention to capacity building, through non-lending TA for example, to help Croatia use EU funds and other resources effectively. Annexes CPSCR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of the CPS objectives Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending Annex Table 3: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work for Croatia, FY08-to present Annex Table 4: Croatia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-Present (in US$ million) Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Croatia, FY08-Present Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Croatia and Comparators, FY08-12 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Croatia and Comparators FY08-FY12 Annex Table 8: Net Disbursements and Charges Report for Croatia, FY08-12 (in US$) Annex Table 9: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Croatia (in US$ Million) Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s investments in Croatia that were active during FY09-13 (Regional Projects not included)  Investments approved pre-FY09, but active during FY09-13 ($,’000) Annex Table 11: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Croatia, FY09-13 (Regional Projects not included)  Advisory Services operations approved pre-FY09, but active during FY09-13 ($) Annex Table 12: Economic and Social Indicators for Croatia 2006-2011 Annex Table 13: Millennium Development Goals Annexes CPSCR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of the CPS objectives CPS FY09-FY12: Pillar I Actual Results Sustain Macroeconomic (as of current month/year) Stability 1. Enhance the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Public Finances Further fiscal consolidation as per Government deficit—overall balance as percent of GDP: the government’s program to bring 2007 -2.1 the general government deficit to 2008 -1.3 below 5 percent of GDP in 2012.1 2009 -4.1 2010 -5.1 2011 -5.2 2012 -4.0 Major Improve tax compliance rate from Tax compliance in 2011 89 percent in 2011. Outcome 84 percent in 2007 to 87 percent in Measures 2011. Improve program budgeting and 2008 Organic Budget Law introduced medium-term performance budgeting – now in pilot performance budgeting. implementation for the third year, supported through Performance-Based Budgeting AAA. 2. Strengthen financial sector supervision Strengthen regulatory/supervisory Supervisory frameworks for banking and non-banking institutions aligned with Basel II framework for banks and non- through implementation of Credit Institutions Act, Capital Market Act and Consumer banks and improve financial Credits Act. stability Mandatory corporate governance codes for all listed companies introduced through the Capital Market Act 1 This was a revised CPS outcome at time of CPS progress report. The original expected CPS outcome was “Further fiscal consolidation as per the government’s program to reduce the general government deficit from 2.3 percent of GDP towards balanced budget by 2010-11.� Annexes CPSCR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12: Pillar II Strengthen Private-Sector- Actual Results Comments Led Growth and Accelerate (as of current month/year) Convergence 1. Enhance Public Sector Governance Improve government World Bank Governance index to 71.4 in 2008 Government effectiveness P- effectiveness as measured by but declined to 69.2 in 2011 mainly as a result of Rank for 2011 is 69 and 70 WB Governance Indicators from reversal related to depoliticization of civil for 2010. 70 percent in 2006 to over 75 service. Source: CPSCR and WGI percent in 2011. Governance Effectiveness Rank from 07-11 2007 -- 68 2008 -- 71 2009 -- 71 2010 -- 70 2011 -- 69 Depoliticize the civil service.  New government abolished this reform and Source: CPSCR retracted the posts of directors, downgraded their positions to sector heads, while re- instituting the position of assistant ministers as political appointees.  The government is currently harmonizing the salary system across all administrative bodies in public administration. Improve the efficiency of the Case backlog reduced by 23 percent between Croatia has continued to judiciary as evidenced by 2006 and 2009 to 800,000 cases. Approximately implement various measures independently verifiable 40% of reduction in case backlog is in Zagreb aiming at improving the Major performance indicators, including that accounts for the largest share of backlog. efficiency of the judiciary. In Outcome a steady reduction in court case By 2010, backlog in land registry—part of the the first semester 2012 the Measures backlogs. aggregate backlog—reduced by 80 percent. backlog of criminal cases Case backlog for 742 courts monitored under continued to fall by around JSSP continues to decrease and went down 12%, and the number of old from 384,038 in 2009 to 369,090 in September civil cases decreased by 2012. The EC’s October 2012 Monitoring Report around 5%. However, a indicates that in the first semester 2012 the bigger effort is needed to backlog of criminal cases continued to fall by 12 reduce the number of percent, while the March 2013 report affirmed unresolved civil and that during 2012 the courts overall managed to commercial cases further. resolve more cases than the influx. Slightly more new cases entered the system in the first semester 2012 (844,218) than were resolved (836,160)�. Source: EC - comprehensive monitoring report on Croatia page 34 2. Improve the Investment Climate Increase the private sector share Private sector share in GDP increased from 60% in GDP toward 80 percent in 2006 to 70 percent of GDP in 2011. 237 Source: CPSCR through continued privatization of companies were either sold or liquidated the CPF portfolio and accelerate (August 2012) under the ERDPL. State-owned Source: Doing Business removal of regulatory obstacles shipyards privatized in 2013. Report Database: Slipped by and reduce the cost of doing  2013 Cost of Doing Business: Croatia ranked 4 ranks from 2012 (Rank 80) business. 84 among 185 countries in 2012, 4 places and 2013 (Rank 84) down compared to 2011.  Under ILAS, continuous reduction of 2 74 courts monitored include 13 commercial, 40 municipal and 21 county courts. Annexes CPSCR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12: Pillar II Strengthen Private-Sector- Actual Results Comments Led Growth and Accelerate (as of current month/year) Convergence transaction processing time in land registry and cadastre offices, and reduction of cadastre and land registry backlog contributing to reduced cost of doing business.  In spite of the good progress in reducing the cost of doing business under both projects, these reforms still remain fragmented and need to be reinforced by increasing the predictability and transparency of procedures and regulation, as well as rule of law.  Tax compliance cost: stands at 0.2% of total taxpayers’ revenues in 2010 (baseline). 3. Align with Demand the Provision of Infrastructure and Related Services Increase the capacity of the  Under two Rijeka Gateway Projects, Rijeka ISR Baseline container traffic Rijeka and Ploce Ports with Container Terminals: physical expansion states 145 in 12/31/2007 and significant private sector under way under Brajdica Container Terminal currently 151 as of 12/31/11 investment.3 will increase the capacity for container traffic from currently 150,000 TEU to 300,000 TEU by June 2013. A five-year contract for a scaled up Zagreb Container terminal has been signed in April 2012, following a complex design and build procurement process, which took more than two years, thus significantly delaying the start of construction works.  Ploce Container Terminal opened for operation in 2011 with initial capacity of 66,000 TEU, supported under TTI. The port capacity will further increase with the construction of Bulk Cargo Terminal that started in April 2012, and will accommodate for 4.6 million tons in capacity and for up to 180,000 dwt. Target is not fully achieved because of implementation delays related to prolonged procurement, including preparation of technical documentation and delayed issuing of permits.  Port concession agreements: Extension of Rijeka’s Brajdica Container Terminal is underway with majority ownership transferred to international private operator against $38 million of private capital, resulting in increased productivity. Two concession agreements signed for new terminals in Ploce in 2010; all concessions on cost recovery basis. Promote the commercialization of  69 contracts between R&D institutions and Source: CPSPR 3 This was a revised CPS outcome at time of CPS progress report. The original expected CPS outcome was “Increase the capacity of the Rijeka and Ploce Ports with revenues increasing from $80 million in 2007 to $115 million in 2012 by addressing critical port capacity constraints with significant private sector investments. Annexes CPSCR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12: Pillar II Strengthen Private-Sector- Actual Results Comments Led Growth and Accelerate (as of current month/year) Convergence public research results, generate industry (2011) from 2 in 2006 (target of 30); more private sector innovation, 59 license agreements, spillovers and patents and increase the share of R&D cumulative (2011) from none in 2006 (target spending by the private sector of 30); €13M private R&D mobilized for from the current one-third of the innovation projects (2011) from €6M in 2006; total toward the Lisbon agenda between 2006 and 2008, the share of target of two-thirds. Croatian SMEs with new or improved products (EU Community Innovation Survey) increased from 7.2 to 10.8 percent.  Private sector R&D spending went from 27 percent in 2006 (Eurostat) to 32 percent in 2010. Under STP, BICRO R&D programs directly supported 89 SMEs, for projects of over €38 million, of which 30 to 50 percent provided by SMEs. STP also helped mitigate the effect of the crisis that hit Croatia in 2009 and reallocated more funds towards innovative SMEs. Research and development R&D spending as a share of GDP remains 0.8 Source: CPSCR spending as a share of GDP to percent due to fiscal consolidation efforts. increase to 1.1 percent by 2012. Annexes CPSCR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar III: Improve the Actual Results Quality and (as of current Comments Efficiency of month/year) Social Sector Spending 1. Increase the sustainability and equity of the pension system Reduce the  Administrative costs of Source: CPSCR administrative second pillar reduced in cost of the 2010 and 2011 through pension fund. a reduction of mandatory pension funds’ asset management fee from 0.75 percent to 0.65 percent and further to 0.45 percent, while in 2011 the government imposed a flat account management fee for REGOS onto pension fund management companies.  Privileged pensions were reduced by 20 percent, privileged pensions for government officials abolished and rationalized for military employees. Early retirement decrement Major doubled except for Outcome beneficiaries with more Measures than 40 years of service. 2. Improve health system efficiency and outcomes Improve the  Co-payment exemptions Human Development Index (WEF—Competitiveness Report) efficiency of streamlined through 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 health spending legislation. Hospital 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.80 and the network rationalization effectiveness of carried out in Zagreb. the EMS Central procurement for system hospitals and e-health services introduced under the ERDPL. From 2005 to 2010, the shares of pharmaceuticals in HZZO’s mandatory insurance-related care expenditures each decreased from 21 to 19 percent though the number of prescriptions increased by 69.3 percent.  Improved effectiveness of EMS through an overhaul of EMS system including separation of Annexes CPSCR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar III: Improve the Actual Results Quality and (as of current Comments Efficiency of month/year) Social Sector Spending pre-hospital EMS from primary health care, new national EMS system management, standardized dispatchers protocols, and massive training of staff in EMS system - with response time for EMS interventions at the scene reduced from 17 to 12 minutes in 2012; emergency field calls as percentage of total field calls increased from 9.7 percent in 2005 to 100 percent in 2011; improved coverage of EMS across Croatia due to redistribution of teams from earlier uneven coverage, reflected in reduction of variation of EMS teams per capita by regions by 20 percent in 2011 3. Enhance the education system to support a knowledge-based economy Improve student  Decreased scores of Source: CPSCR. learning and 2009 PISA compared to system 2006: in math (467 to performance 460), reading (477 to 476) with and science (493 to 486). performance of  Matura, a school exit Croatian pupils exam, saw the scores remaining at improving between 2010 least at PISA and 2011 in math (from 2009 level 50.8 to 55.1%) and Primary School Enrollment from 2006-2010 trend compared with Croatian language (from 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 EU average 70.7 to 71.7%) despite of 98.51 97.75 95.23 93.48 93.02 increase of exam-passing Source: DDP thresholds by 5-8 percent.  System performance improved with new national curriculum framework for pre-school, primary and secondary education developed and approved; establishment of national center for external evaluation and successful introduction of Matura exam for all Annexes CPSCR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar III: Improve the Actual Results Quality and (as of current Comments Efficiency of month/year) Social Sector Spending gymnasium and VET students wanting to enroll in tertiary education, introduction of integrated information system and new management and leadership training for school principals, as well as reduction in VET programs from 300 (2005) to 197 (2010), slightly below target of 190. 4. Improve social inclusion and target social assistance better Improve the  Management Information efficiency and System (MIS) software for transparency of social welfare initially social programs piloted in three counties and then withdrawn. New Government has adjusted and upgraded the MIS and it is currently used in all 12 social welfare centers in Zagreb, with a plan to roll out the system countrywide starting in June 2013. Data exchange between Zagreb social welfare centers and Tax Administration is fully in place.  Social workers’ time spent on direct work with clients significantly increased, from 30 percent in 2005 to 65 percent in 2007 (survey) as a result of the introduction of one-stop- office work model in centers for social welfare.  Social Welfare Reform Strategy 2011-2016 and the Social Welfare Law enacted in 2011 aimed to reduce social exclusion and improve system efficiency, including through better targeting of benefits. The law linked the Guaranteed Minimum Annexes CPSCR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar III: Improve the Actual Results Quality and (as of current Comments Efficiency of month/year) Social Sector Spending Income to the poverty line as calculated by the Bureau of Statistics, so that the eligibility threshold of relative poverty is indexed and functions as automatic stabilizer. Annexes CPSCR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar IV: Actual Results Increase the Sustainability Comments (as of current month/year) of Long-Term Development 1. Strengthen environment management and nature protection Improve water supply and  Infrastructure in water and wastewater Source: CPSCR wastewater services and flood services has been constructed and/or protection measures in Croatia’s upgraded through constructing of wastewater ISR seq 12:: Original target inland municipalities. and water treatment plants, pumping stations, before restructuring was 90% water reservoirs, and supply/collection and actual percentage of pipelines thus ensuring the main conditions satisfied with the services is for increasing the number of population 80% receiving reliable water and wastewater services. While a certain portion of the population has already been connected to the Flood Protection: ISR network, in some municipalities the secondary Baseline 600M m3 network is still under way. Actual is 800M m3 on closing  Retention volume for flood protection increased from 600M m3 in 2008 to 800M m3 in May 2012, safeguarding the population and property in Sava River Basin.  APCP April 2012 survey (785 farmers): 94 percent of farmers have adopted at least one of preventive measures like organic manure usage, proper manure storage, three year crop rotation, or similar - thus contributing to reducing water nutrient discharge – up from 35 percent of farmers in 2009. Maintain the quality of Croatia’s Quality of coastal waters participating Source: CPSCR. coastal waters to meet applicable municipalities is maintained as indicated by 98 EU and national standards in percent of samples from monitoring bathing and Major participating municipalities shellfish areas complying with EU standard. Outcome Seawater quality monitoring was established Measures under CCPCP. Coastal water pollution in the Adriatic Sea adjacent to the participating cities was reduced, as indicated from the increase in the percentage of wastewater produced in coastal municipalities that is treated and disposed of in line with EU and Croatia requirements from 6 percent to 45 percent. The number of population in participating cities able to connect to a wastewater collection system went from 56 to 68 percent, meaning that in total 220,000 people directly benefited from the project. Increase annual capital and other Annual capital and other investments across the Source: CPSCR investment expenditure across park estate increased by 9 percent from 2010 to the parks estate 2011, under EU Natura project. There are 15 infrastructure and two research project proposals under preparation for submission to the pipeline for EU Structural Funds for programming period of 2014-20 in the value of EUR42 million – with one project already for financing 2. Improve natural disaster management Increase coverage in precise This indicator was dropped at progress report weather event now-forecasting stage because project did not materialize (from 30 percent to 80 percent of the territory) and reduce response time to disasters and emergencies Annexes CPSCR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY09-12 Pillar IV: Actual Results Increase the Sustainability Comments (as of current month/year) of Long-Term Development 3. Prepare for adapting to and mitigating climate change Increase irrigated farming area This indicator was dropped at progress report (from 9000 ha) stage because project did not materialize Implement framework with  Framework for RE incentives implemented Source: CPSCR, project incentives for provision of under the RER project, incl. legislation and supervision reports, and renewable energy and scale-up EU compliant regulatory setting - new Energy ICRs. roll-out of programs for energy Law, secondary legislation for feed-in tariffs, efficiency RE Advisory Facility with RER Registry to help build pipeline and finance pre-feasibility studies, and RE grid integration.  Renewable energy projects for 70 MW capacity ready (2013), of which 37 MW achieved financial closure – with two projects constructed and one under construction; the remainder of projects are on track to reach financial closure in 2013.  Under Energy Efficiency Project, HEP ESCO financed energy efficiency investments totaled US$33.8 million in December 2011 4. Reduce regional and urban-rural disparities Establish capacity to develop a 405 projects completed under SERP: 125 for Source: CPSCR pipeline of high-quality regional social inclusion (target 120); 69 for small Small community and municipal-level community infrastructure (target was 60); and infrastructure subprojects 211 in support of SMEs, crafts and cooperatives completed: (target was 240) benefitting 84,000 people Baseline; 0 residing in areas of special state concern; 1,359 Actual 67 new jobs were created and €11 million in Number of SME/ Coop additional revenue was generated by the SMEs. grants successfully implemented: Baseline 0 Actual 211 and end target report on ISR is 240 Improve agriculture productivity  Alignment with EU’s agricultural acquis: EU and further the alignment with the October 2011 Progress Report assessed that EU acquis Croatia overall made good progress in aligning its agriculture and rural development sector (EU chapter 11) with the EU acquis, and implementing food safety acquis transposition (chapter 12). Under AACP, the capacity of the EU Paying Agency was developed, the land parcel information system was built as part of the integrated administration and control system, and the line ministry’s information management systems enhanced. The capacity of the Croatian Food Agency was built and its staff trained to apply EU acquis procedures.  Difficult to assess status of agricultural productivity—unclear what intervention would improve it. Annexes CPSCR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Outcome Project ID Project name FY FY Amount Amount Rating Project Planned Under CPS / CPSPR 2009-11 P104749 Judicial Reform (Justice Sector Support) FY09 FY10 35 36 LIR: S P086669 Dev. of Emergency Medical Services (DEMSIP) FY09 FY09 27 28 LIR: S P102365 Rijeka Gateway II FY09 FY09 130 123 LIR: MU P102732 Coastal Cities Pollution Control II FY09 FY09 90 88 LIR: MU P109603 Disaster Risk Management FY09 Dropped 48 Education II (or additional financing) FY10 Dropped 100 P118260 Port Development (or additional financing) FY10 FY12 70 67 LIR: MS P112732 Climate Adaptation/irrigation FY10 Dropped 100 P111205 Nature Protection FY10 FY11 30 29 LIR: S P122221 DPL (ERDPL) - Economic Recovery DPL FY11 2011 213 LIR: S Railway Developments FY11 Dropped Energy Generation or Transmission FY11 Dropped Total 630 583 Unplanned P122219 INTEGRATED LAND ADMIN SYSTEM FY12 24 24 LIR: S P116080 EXPORT FIL (Finance Intermediary Loan) FY10 FY10 141 141 LIR: S P117665 Fiscal, Social and Financial Sector DPL FY10 FY10 Closed 297 LIR: S EFIL AF (Export Finance Intermediary Loan Addtl P129220 Financing 2013 Active 61 Total 165 523 Approval Closing On-going FY FY P063546 PENSION SYS INVST 2003 2009 27 IEG: MS P043195 RIJEKA GATEWAY 2004 2013 157 LIR: MU P065416 COASTAL CITIES POLLUTION CONTROL (APL#1) 2004 2010 48 IEG: MS P079978 ENERGY EFF 2004 2010 5 IEG: MS P069937 SOC WELF DEVT 2005 2011 40 IEG: MU P076730 SOC & ECON REC 2005 2011 46 IEG: MS P091715 AGRIC ACQUIS COHESION 2006 2013 30 LIR: S P086671 EDUC SECTOR DEV PROGRAM (CRL) 2006 2012 85 LIR: MU P080258 HR Science & Technology 2006 2011 40 IEG: S P095389 DISTRICT HEATING 2006 2010 30 IEG: MU P082278 PAL 2006 2006 185 IEG: MS P105238 GATEWAY(ADDTL FNCG) 2007 Active 48 LIR: MU P093767 TRADE & TRANS INTEG 2007 2014 75 LIR: MS P098948 INLAND WATERS PROJECT 2007 2013 133 LIR: S P102778 REVENUE ADMIN MODERN (RAMP) 2007 2013 68 LIR: MS P094341 PAL 2 2007 2009 197 Total 1,214 * LIR: Latest internal rating. U: Unsatisfactory. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. Source: Belarus CAS, CASPR and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 04/24/2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Planned and Actual Analytical and Advisory Work for Croatia, FY08-to present Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P106955 FSAP update Croatia FY08 Report P107939 EU Convergence Report FY09 Report P114818 Croatia Safeguards UCS pilot FY11 Report P117634 Crisis Impact: Poverty & Labor Markets FY10 Policy Note P122054 Justice Sector Public Expdr & Instnl Rvw FY13 Report P127664 Policy Notes for Incoming Government FY12 Policy Note Proj ID Techical Assistane Fiscal year Output Type P093774 ENV TA FY07 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P105230 FSAP UPDATE PREPARATION TA -CROATIA (SA) FY07 Institutional Development Plan P110594 SOLID WASTE PVT. SECT. INVOLVEMENT FY09 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P123067 Policy Notes - Reform Support FY12 "How-To" Guidance Source: BW Table 1.4 ESW/TA Deliveries & Pipeline by Fiscal Year as of 04/24/2013 Annex Table 4: Croatia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY08-Present (in US$ million) Project ID Project TF Approval Closing Approved FY FY Amount P098948 Inland Waters Project TF 56572 2007 2008 500,000 P106986 Croatia Stat Master Plan Support TF 55789 2006 2008 89,750 P065416 Coastal Cities Pollution Control Project (APL#1) TF 54882 2006 2008 2,461,674 P042014 Karst Ecosystem Conservation GEF Project TF 50539 2002 2008 5,070,000 P094341 Croatia Programmatic Adjustment Loan 2 (PAL2) TF 56514 2006 2009 1,158,380 P069937 Social Welfare Development Project TF 56237 2006 2009 2,006,251 P067149 Real Property Registration & Cadastre Project TF 55104 2006 2009 5,286,488 P067149 Real Property Registration & Cadastre Project TF 52657 2005 2009 2,382,086 P071464 Renewable Energy Resources Project TF 54973 2006 2010 5,500,000 P071461 CROATIA - ENERGY EFFICIENCY PROJECT (GEF) TF 52141 2004 2010 7,000,000 P103780 IDF-Enhancing Corporate Financial Reporting in Croatia TF 90642 2008 2011 260,000 P100639 Agricultural Pollution Control Project TF 90845 2008 2013 5,000,000 P091715 Agricultural Acquis Cohesion Project TF 56498 2006 2013 4,750,060 P131562 Croatia: SAFE Trust Fund for Modernizing Treasury TF 12382 2013 2014 202,608 Systems in Croatia P102395 Second Coastal Cities Pollution Control Project TF 92704 2009 2015 6,400,000 P084608 Neretva and Trebisnjica River Basin Management TF 91967 2009 2015 2,000,000 Project (BiH/Croatia) Source: World Bank Client Connection as of April 24, 2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Croatia, FY08-Present Total Exit IEG Risk to DO Proj ID Evaluated IEG Outcome FY Rating ($M) NEGLIGIBLE TO 2008 P042014 KARST ECOSYS CONSV (GEF) - HIGHLY SATISFACTORY LOW MODERATELY 2008 P043444 MUN ENV INFRA 38.40 MODERATE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY NEGLIGIBLE TO 2009 P063546 PENSION SYS INVST 21.22 SATISFACTORY LOW MODERATELY 2009 P094341 PAL 2 154.29 MODERATE SATISFACTORY COASTAL CITIES POLLUTION MODERATELY 2010 P065416 53.76 MODERATE CONTROL (APL#1) SATISFACTORY NEGLIGIBLE TO 2010 P067149 REAL PROP REG & CADASTRE 34.09 SATISFACTORY LOW MODERATELY 2010 P071464 RENEW ENERGY RES (GEF) - SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2010 P079978 ENERGY EFF 5.84 MODERATE SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2010 P095389 DISTRICT HEATING 33.30 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY Fiscal, Social and Financial Sector 2010 P117665 271.23 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT DPL MODERATELY NEGLIGIBLE TO 2011 P069937 SOC WELF DEVT 43.71 UNSATISFACTORY LOW MODERATELY 2011 P076730 SOC & ECON REC 47.85 MODERATE SATISFACTORY 2011 P080258 HR Science & Technology 41.59 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT EDUC SECTOR DEV PROGRAM MODERATELY 2012 P086671 89.55 MODERATE (CRL) UNSATISFACTORY Source: BW Key IEG Ratings as of 04/24/13 Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Croatia and Comparators, FY08-12 RDO % RDO % Total Total Outcome Outcome Moderate or Moderate or Exit FY Evaluated Evaluated % Sat ($) % Sat (No) Lower Lower ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Croatia 834.8 14 80.0 71.4 58.5 71.4 ECA 12,972.1 186 86.7 79.1 68.6 62.6 World 70,976.2 933 82.8 71.3 66.7 54.6 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 04/10/23 # With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. Annexes CPSCR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Croatia and Comparators FY08-FY12 Fiscal year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Croatia # Proj 16 17 14 12 12 # Proj At Risk 2 2 3 1 1 % Proj At Risk 12.5 11.8 21.4 8.3 8.3 Net Comm Amt 1,062.7 1,082.7 1,134.4 1,007.9 1,013.6 Comm At Risk 265.4 163.2 186.9 28.3 23.8 % Commit at Risk 25.0 15.1 16.5 2.8 2.3 ECA # Proj 303 287 276 251 209 # Proj At Risk 38 52 50 40 42 % Proj At Risk 12.5 18.1 18.1 15.9 20.1 Net Comm Amt 17,966.1 21,383.2 24,340.5 22,535.4 22,957.9 Comm At Risk 2,257.0 3,460.2 4,357.1 2,116.9 2,652.6 % Commit at Risk 12.6 16.2 17.9 9.4 11.6 World # Proj 1,525 1,552 1,590 1,595 1,500 # Proj At Risk 276 344 366 337 333 % Proj At Risk 18.1 22.2 23.0 21.1 22.2 Net Comm Amt 106,761.7 131,076.4 158,287.4 168,248.7 168,407.7 Comm At Risk 18,428.2 19,929.9 28,186.1 22,978.5 23,723.1 % Commit at Risk 17.3 15.2 17.8 13.7 14.1 Source: BW Table 3a.4 as of 04/24/13 Annex Table 8: Net Disbursements and Charges Report for Croatia, FY08-12 (in US$) Net Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Transfer FY2008 249,149,286 109,886,484 139,262,801 56,707,434 1,805,346 80,750,021 FY2009 140,826,086 126,348,701 14,477,386 57,559,959 2,542,331 -45,624,903 FY2010 446,813,979 135,322,625 311,491,354 23,036,026 2,576,144 285,879,184 FY2011 386,406,923 157,277,257 229,129,667 22,763,800 1,438,603 204,927,263 FY2012 127,096,233 151,159,938 -24,063,705 34,194,087 697,091 -58,954,882 Report Total 1,350,292,507 679,995,004 670,297,503 194,261,306 9,059,514 466,976,683 Source: Client Connection as of 04/11/13             Annexes CPSCR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Croatia (in US$ Million) Total Development Partners 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2006-2010 Australia .. 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 Austria 6.3 8.8 9.2 5.4 5.7 35.3 Belgium 1.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 Canada 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 .. 1.0 Denmark 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 4.2 Finland 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 1.4 France 3.4 3.2 4.3 4.0 3.8 18.7 Germany 6.9 7.5 21.2 12.6 22.5 70.7 Greece 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 1.1 Italy -3.9 -3.2 -3.6 -1.7 -1.6 -14.0 Japan -0.1 0.2 0.0 -0.7 1.9 1.4 Korea 0.1 .. -1.1 -1.9 -2.1 -5.1 Netherlands 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 Norway 14.9 6.9 4.2 3.6 3.5 33.2 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 Spain 1.2 .. 0.9 0.7 0.4 3.3 Sweden 5.1 6.1 2.7 0.7 0.1 14.7 Switzerland 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 United Kingdom 0.3 1.1 1.4 1.9 1.1 5.7 United States 30.9 21.1 7.4 3.7 0.2 63.4 DAC Countries, Total 68.2 55.1 49.2 30.7 36.9 240.1 EBRD 0.1 0.2 0.3 .. .. 0.5 EU Institutions 121.7 100.9 181.1 129.9 105.4 639.0 GEF 7.3 .. 0.5 .. .. 7.8 Global Fund 1.6 0.0 .. .. .. 1.6 IAEA 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 2.1 OSCE .. .. .. .. 1.8 1.8 UNAIDS 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 UNDP 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.9 5.6 UNHCR 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.2 0.2 6.7 UNICEF 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.7 UNTA 0.7 1.1 0.6 .. .. 2.4 Multilateral, Total 134.3 106.1 186.9 133.2 109.2 669.7 Czech Republic 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 2.1 Estonia 0.0 .. .. .. .. 0.0 Hungary 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.5 Israel 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Latvia .. 0.0 .. .. .. 0.0 Lithuania 0.0 0.0 .. .. .. 0.0 Poland 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Slovak Republic 0.0 .. .. 0.1 .. 0.2 Slovenia .. .. 4.3 3.7 3.4 11.4 Turkey 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.4 2.6 Non-DAC Countries, Total 1.3 1.7 5.5 4.9 4.7 18.1 Development Partners, Total 203.8 162.9 241.6 168.8 150.7 927.8 Source: OECD as of 24 Apr 2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 10: List of IFC’s investments in Croatia that were active during FY09-13 (Regional Projects not included) Investments approved pre-FY09, but active during FY09-13 ($,’000) Cmt Clsre FY Sector Name Prjct Size Loans Equity Net Cmtmnt 2/9/99 2011 Private Equity 5,000 0 4,671 4,671 9/3/02 2012 Commercial Banking 26,907 19,604 19,604 9/2/02 2012 Pulp & Paper 50,621 9,802 9,802 6/17/04 Retail 441,000 48,626 48,626 12/21/04 Commercial Banking 102,053 99,416 99,416 6/26/06 [2013] Food Manufacturing 115,259 51,060 51,060 6/14/07 Accommodation & Tourism 283,091 37,091 15,505 52,595 6/5/08 [2013] Livestock 43,537 62,710 62,710 6/5/08 [2013] Food Manufacturing 178,142 Subtotal 1,245,610 328,309 20,175 348,484 Investments approved in FY09-13($,’000) Cmt Clsre FY Sector Name Prjct Size Loans Equity Net Cmtmnt 6/30/09 2012 Steel 213,195 56,406 56,406 6/28/12 Wind Power 74,024 24,807 24,807 7/2/12 Agricultural Machinery 19,846 15,097 15,097 11/15/12 Branded Retail Items 339,184 20,515 20,515 Subtotal 646,249 116,825 0 116,825 Grand Total 1,891,859 445,134 20,175 465,309 Annex Table 11: List of IFC’s Advisory Services in Croatia, FY09-13 (Regional Projects not included) Advisory Services operations approved pre-FY09, but active during FY09-13 ($) Project Name Line Start End Funds Managed by IFC Croatia Regulatory Governance IC 1/1/06 6/30/09 320,552 Belje Biogas and Composting SBA 8/16/06 1/22/08 193,000 Total 513,552 Annexes CPSCR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: Economic and Social Indicators for Croatia 2006-2011 Croatia Croatia ECA World Series Name 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2006-2011 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 4.9 5.1 2.1 -6.9 -1.4 0.0 0.6 1.3 2.4 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 5.0 5.2 2.1 -6.8 -1.2 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.2 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 3.2 2.9 6.1 2.4 1.0 2.3 3.0 3.3 5.0 Composition of GDP Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.1 2.0 2.8 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 28.1 27.5 27.7 27.5 26.8 26.5 27.3 26.5 26.8 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 66.7 67.6 67.3 67.4 68.2 68.4 67.6 71.6 70.3 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 26.0 26.2 27.4 24.5 20.6 18.8 23.9 19.6 20.5 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) 22.7 22.2 22.7 21.4 21.2 21.0 21.8 21.6 20.8 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 42.8 42.3 42.1 36.6 39.4 41.8 40.8 39.7 28.2 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 49.6 49.5 49.8 40.1 39.9 41.9 45.1 38.2 28.4 Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.5 -7.3 -8.7 -4.9 -1.5 -0.7 -4.9 External debt stocks (% of GNI) Total debt service (% of GNI) Total reserves in months of imports 5.1 5.0 4.0 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.4 5.9 12.9 Revenue, excluding grants (% of GDP) 34.4 35.5 34.8 34.5 33.7 32.8 34.3 34.8 23.1 Fiscal Accounts* General government revenue (% of GDP) 38.6 39.8 39.2 39.0 37.8 36.8 38.5 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 41.2 41.9 40.5 43.1 42.9 42.0 41.9 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 35.4 32.9 29.3 35.8 42.2 46.7 37.0 Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 75.8 75.7 75.9 76.2 76.5 76.9 76.2 75.3 69.3 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12- 23 months) 96.0 96.0 96.0 96.0 97.0 96.0 96.2 95.2 82.2 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 .. 99.0 91.9 61.5 Improved water source (% of population with access) 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 .. 99.0 97.8 87.4 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.9 12.3 39.9 Education School enrollment, primary (% gross) 98.5 97.7 95.2 93.5 93.0 .. 95.6 102.3 106.0 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 93.0 93.5 94.3 95.3 95.7 .. 94.4 96.6 68.5 Population Population, total 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 885.7 6,776.5 Population growth (annual %) 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 56.6 56.9 57.1 57.3 57.5 57.8 57.2 69.7 50.8 DDP Online as of April 24, 2013 Annexes CPSCR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 51.0 50.0 45.0 47.0 46.0 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 27.0 32.0 26.0 26.0 24.0 GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) 21,140.0 16,949.0 18,324.0 22,445.0 25,129.0 Income share held by lowest 20% 10.0 .. 8.0 9.0 .. Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) - 1.0 .. .. .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) - .. - - .. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) - .. - - .. Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. 24.0 19.0 20.0 18.0 Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) 100.0 .. 100.0 .. 100.0 Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) 100.0 .. 100.0 .. 100.0 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. 95.0 100.0 99.0 99.0 Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) .. 81.0 93.0 95.0 93.0 Adjusted net enrollment rate, primary (% of primary school age children) .. .. 92.0 99.0 96.0 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) .. 8.0 21.0 22.0 24.0 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) .. 99.0 99.0 100.0 100.0 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) .. 103.0 102.0 103.0 107.0 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) .. 99.0 116.0 121.0 134.0 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural employment) 43.2 46.6 47.0 45.9 47.0 Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 90.0 92.0 93.0 96.0 96.0 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 11.0 9.0 7.0 6.0 4.0 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 13.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 5.0 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. 18.0 16.0 14.0 13.0 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) .. .. 69.0 .. .. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 8.0 14.0 11.0 14.0 17.0 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. .. 100.0 100.0 100.0 Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. .. .. .. .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving antimalarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with fever) .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 60.0 54.0 43.0 29.0 17.0 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.1 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 95.0 84.0 85.0 82.0 82.0 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) .. - - - - CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 4.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 Forest area (% of land area) 33.1 .. 33.7 34.0 34.4 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 Improved water source (% of population with access) 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 99.0 Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 Net ODA received per capita (current US$) - 11.0 15.0 28.0 34.0 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports of goods, services and primary income) .. .. .. .. .. Internet users (per 100 people) - 0.5 6.6 33.1 70.7 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) - 1.0 23.0 82.0 116.0 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 18.0 28.0 38.0 42.0 40.0 Annexes CPSCR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Other GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) .. 5,400.0 5,220.0 9,690.0 13,540.0 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) .. 24.7 23.1 43.0 59.6 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 12.4 15.7 19.1 27.3 21.1 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 72.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) 97.0 .. 98.0 .. 99.0 Population, total (billions) 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 Trade (% of GDP) 163.8 74.7 86.5 90.9 83.7 Source: World Development Indicators