Estimate of Revenue Foregone on Customs Duty in Bangladesh Results from a preliminary exercise This note is a preliminary estimate of the revenue foregone under customs duty because of the various exemptions provided on imports. The estimates are intended as an input into the policy process that seeks to balance revenue raising measures, trade and tariff policy, and competitiveness. The estimates are preliminary because of data limitations. While the size of the revenue foregone can be roughly estimated, data on the reason for the exemptions was not available. Thus, targeted policy recommendations cannot be provided at this stage. Total estimated revenue foregone for Customs Duties was Tk 171 billion in FY16. This constituted about 1 percent of GDP and 11.7 percent of taxes collected by NBR in FY16. The Revenue Foregone is estimated by calculating the difference between the ‘Benchmark’ Revenue and the Actual Revenue Collected. The ‘Benchmark’ Revenue is calculated by applying the ‘Benchmark’ Tariff Rates. Consequently, the estimates of the Revenue Foregone is fundamentally dependent on the assumption of the ‘Benchmark’ Tariff/Rates. Any duty paid imports on which the effective rate of duty was less than the statutory tariff rate are taken as being accorded special treatment. More information on the methodology is provided in the Annex-A. Detailed Results: Estimated revenue foregone for Customs Duty is shown in Annex-B Table 1. Revenue foregone for 2015-16 is Tk 171 billion which is 1 percent of GDP and 11.7 percent of NBR tax collections in FY16. Note that the revenues foregone were 28.8 percent higher than the revenues collected from customs duty that is captured in the database. The highest revenue foregone is for imports under the statutory rate of 10 percent followed closely by the imports under the 5 percent and 0 percent category. These four together contribute 56% of the revenue foregone. Annex-B Table 2 shows that within the HS Code 2-digit commodity groups, the major contributors to the revenue foregone are the following: - HS code 27, major commodity contributing 16 percent of the estimated foregone CD revenue is fuel, especially furnace oil (HS code 27101911); - HS code 85: electrical machinery contributing 15 percent of the foregone CD revenues; - HS code 84: mechanical machinery including boilers accounting for around 13 percent of the estimated foregone CD revenues; - HS code 15: cooking oils contributing around 12 percent of the foregone CD revenues. Conclusion: The estimates on revenue foregone assume that similar categories of goods at least at the four-digit level should be taxed at the same rate. It is found that even under the same 8-digit HS code categories different imports were taxed differently which indicates a special treatment in the case of certain imports. Due to lack of data on the specific exemption code that is applied, it is not possible to specify the reason why a certain special treatment was applied. However, the revenue foregone would be able to give the government a first estimate of the potential revenue out there. These estimates are not an endorsement of raising tariffs to address the foregone revenue rather than an input into the policy process that seeks to balance revenue raising measures, trade and tariff policy and competitiveness. This note is a preliminary attempt to estimate the size of the 1 problem. If further data on income tax and VAT exemptions actually provided are made available a more detailed analysis including the other taxes collected on imports can be made and a richer set of policy recommendations could be provided. Annex-C provides a list of the specific data requirements requested from NBR. 2 Annex-A: How is the Revenue Foregone Calculated? The Revenue Foregone is estimated by calculating the difference between the ‘Benchmark’ Revenue and the Actual Revenue Collected. The ‘Benchmark’ Revenue is calculated by applying the ‘Benchmark’ Tariff Rates. Consequently, the estimates of the Revenue Foregone is fundamentally dependent on the assumption of the ‘Benchmark’ Tariff/Rates. Usually, the customs datasets provide details on ‘special’ treatment of certain categories of imports whereby less than the usual duty is applied. In the present case, such data was not provided. Thus, an alternative approach was followed to identify any potential special treatment. Any duty paid importation on which the effective rate of duty was less than the statutory tariff rate is taken as being accorded special treatment. To estimate the revenue foregone, we then apply the Benchmark Statutory Tariff Rate on the same importation to arrive at the Benchmark Customs Duty. The Benchmark Statutory Tariff Rate was chosen as the maximum rate applied under each HS 4-digit classification. The assumption being that any lower Duty Rate than the Benchmark under each 4- digit category/classification applied to a good being imported is likely to be the result of special treatment. An alternative approach is to apply the Statutory Tariff Rate as the benchmark rather than the Maximum Rate applied under each HS 4-digit classification. The issue with that approach is that the Statutory Tariff Rates may themselves embed a special treatment. In some countries, the benchmark is chosen to be the WTO bound rate which is usually higher than the applied rate in the country and the revenue foregone is calculated with respect to this rate.1 We received two datasets at the 8-digit level of the HS code – one consisting of the list of statutory rates and special rates for each 8-digit HS Code, and the second data set included data on the actual volume and value of import and tax collection by type of tax. However, the import data does not have the crucial fields which is the exemption code applied if any for that import. 1 The Indian Government calculates the revenue foregone with respect to the WTO bound rate. 3 Annex-B: Detailed results from the preliminary exercise Table 1: Revenue Foregone for Customs Duty in FY16 Statutory Tariff CD Revenue CD Collection Revenue Foregone Rate Collection Foregone (Taka) (Taka) (% of GDP) (% of GDP) 0 13,743,492 41,867,526,242 0 0.24 1 3,701,753,335 24,050,962,280 0.02 0.14 2 610,016,029 1,399,654,206 0 0.01 5 19,674,460,749 42,432,085,072 0.11 0.24 10 31,147,732,143 44,640,452,799 0.18 0.26 25 68,501,548,497 11,283,530,775 0.4 0.07 500 6,356,814,210 3,178,407,424 0.04 0.02 750 370 0 0 0 2,000 1,672,496,722 2,090,621,116 0.01 0.01 3,500 169,989,118 48,568,320 0 0 4,500 921,621,724 0 0.01 0 Total 132,770,176,389 170,991,808,234 0.77 1.00 Table 2: Revenue Foregone for Customs Duty under 2-digit HS Code (2015-16) Revenue Revenue HS2 Customs Duty Foregone HS2 Customs Duty Foregone 1 4,022,831 338,522,645 51 10,203,265 144,467 2 5,322,793 10,230,636 52 100,672,048 4,031,525 3 1,110,452,608 20,092,269 53 1,449,966 1,442,265 4 990,950,804 3,067,696,449 54 1,210,469,568 80,712,515 5 18,162,882 3,529,685 55 836,844,606 810,350,744 6 4,000,266 - 56 135,481,064 38,624,339 7 545,384,276 6,589,964,310 57 85,415,362 937,473 8 5,108,052,682 585,939,334 58 213,377,280 1,612,899 9 2,198,556,805 2,486,371,155 59 348,450,926 35,990,548 10 1,074,701,846 3,852,497,585 60 106,698,780 - 11 220,852,077 316,251,999 61 178,959,446 5,413,035 12 157,821,969 165,454,760 62 351,485,119 5,421,333 13 42,376,018 734,978 63 459,072,171 23,873,384 14 50,582,690 78,420,326 64 484,849,267 25,342,212 15 424,146,831 20,573,345,385 65 27,261,031 535,202 16 18,574,688 - 66 111,882,077 3,452 17 1,805,430,279 2,235,031,578 67 10,903,212 - 18 131,462,587 1,856,962 68 242,501,500 128,977,319 4 19 1,106,250,265 350,041,849 69 966,640,350 203,058,704 20 148,603,341 1,918,160 70 1,025,746,824 336,612,549 21 985,610,153 494,796,415 71 84,722,977 18,426 22 21,565,347 20,249,226 72 8,616,101,156 3,421,104,097 23 923,730,800 5,553,493,958 73 4,075,863,628 3,508,988,666 24 31,437,168 162,989 74 752,869,320 15,080,846 25 7,925,154,704 3,643,364,397 75 3,276,708 531,985 26 344,443,410 6,502,979 76 1,343,025,974 1,072,412,290 27 18,121,905,314 27,691,576,029 78 127,427,457 745,035 28 901,793,329 1,040,575,270 79 567,690,146 554,294,716 29 1,917,148,512 2,694,726,073 80 10,694,444 - 30 137,145,093 1,908,227,295 81 31,404,993 1,075,372 31 101 5,045,091,046 82 303,720,369 45,389,606 32 1,306,905,915 1,497,056,381 83 653,811,020 182,393,034 33 1,364,608,568 122,760,444 84 7,668,006,457 21,724,585,794 34 899,811,922 565,976,643 85 17,792,905,522 25,364,061,937 35 302,119,531 99,224,865 86 157,804,332 2,419,448 36 8,950,954 49,166,384 87 16,778,882,925 3,520,158,377 37 95,626,302 425,871,179 88 158,673 14,539,786 38 2,049,556,812 3,665,425,410 89 171,934,093 1,016,075,377 39 5,503,608,762 2,120,916,969 90 853,846,872 2,820,136,860 40 2,383,749,353 1,826,207,983 91 62,884,380 2,874,904 41 14,148,554 3,493 92 7,622,260 112,388 42 170,946,489 3,227,336 93 111,729,674 3,448,450,608 43 46,513 363 94 741,857,284 671,535,026 44 556,121,877 366,851,024 95 338,862,911 6,119,295 45 1,267,895 - 96 752,184,368 151,462,110 46 4,628,257 - 97 2,149,881 1,909,074 47 0 - 98 0 - 48 2,380,126,106 987,323,187 49 322,921,929 1,235,571,783 50 9,586,497 - 5 Annex-C: Data requirements for a full coverage of the tax expenditures Income Tax Wing Goal: The goal of this exercise is to capture any exemption/deduction/remission, etc. that reduces the tax or duty payable. Please see the bottom of the document for a typical result. Note: Ideally taxpayer-wise data should be made available. Income Tax (Personal Income Tax and Corporate Income Tax – Ideally taxpayer wise data from Tax Forms from the latest year for which all tax returns have been filed. Inventory of Incentives 1. List of all tax incentives as per the Income Tax Act. 2. List of any special regimes under the Income Tax such as for Small Business, Exporters, etc. 3. List of tax incentives and other exemptions for Special Economic Zones or Export Processing Zones, etc. 4. List of any SROs granting tax incentives not included in the list above. Data 1. Total of all exempt income as declared in the tax return 2. Total of all Rebates or Tax Credits as shown in the tax return 3. Total of all Deductions from taxes as shown in the tax return 4. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 5. Total of all Specific Incentives - Allowable Deductions 6. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 7. Total of all the discretionary tax incentives provided by the minister 8. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 9. Any other exemption/deductions/rebate not included above 10. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 11. Total Income Tax Collections for one year VAT Wing Goal: The goal of this exercise is to capture any exemption/deduction/remission, etc. that reduces the tax or duty payable. Note: Ideally taxpayer-wise data should be made available Value Added Tax – Ideally taxpayer wise data from Tax forms covering one full tax year for which data is available Inventory of Incentives 1. List of all Exemptions and Zero Ratings as per the VAT Act. 2. List of any special regimes under the VAT for Small Business. Exporters, etc. 3. List of tax incentives and other exemptions for Special Economic Zones or Export Processing Zones, etc. 4. List of any SROs granting tax incentives not included in the list above. 6 Data 1. Supply-Use Tables or Input-Output Tables – latest version 2. List of all Exemptions, Zero Ratings and any other special treatment under VAT 3. Total of all VAT Exempt supplies as declared in the tax return 4. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 5. Total of all VAT Zero-rated supplies as declared in the tax return (including exports) 6. Same as above but broken down by Sector/Category of Industry 7. Total of VAT zero rated supplies for exports 8. Total VAT Collections for one year – Please include Import VAT Cost of Tax Incentives July 2015- June 2016 [ EXAMPLE] Share of total revenue Share of Local Currency (%) GDP (%) Income tax Total 48,880,857,373 14.68 2.69 Income Tax Act exemptions 225,857,373 0.07 0.01 Discretionary incentives 48,655,000,000 14.62 2.67 Customs duties Total 30,027,777,500 9.02 1.65 Government 4,019,764,175 1.21 0.22 Embassies 1,950,302,114 0.59 0.11 International organizations 10,841,782,788 3.26 0.60 NGOs 67,914,425 0.02 0.00 Other 13,148,013,998 3.95 0.72 VAT (import) Total 48,815,145,833 14.66 2.68 Government 4,668,965,941 1.40 0.26 Embassies 298,734,553 0.09 0.02 International organizations 15,557,431,734 4.67 0.86 NGOs 121,900,000 0.04 0.01 Other 28,168,113,605 8.46 1.55 VAT (Domestic) Non tax Revenue Total 1,670,876,305 0.50 0.09 Total 129,394,657,011 38.87 7.11 7