old age income spanish 9/7/05 Page 1 32672 XXI , , , , . , , , , , , , 1 Copyright © 2005 / 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, USA . . 2001 . 1 2 3 4 08 07 06 05 . , , . , . , , , , , - . . / . / , , . , . : Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; : 978-750-8400; : 978-750-4470; : www.copyright.com. , , : World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; : 202-522-2422; : pubrights@worldbank.org. ISBN 0-8213-6040-X , , 1949­ XXI : / , . p. cm. . ISBN 0-8213-6040-X (pbk.) 1. ­ . 2. ­ ­ . 3. . 4. . I. , . II. . 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2004 ................................................................................................................. .1 . ...................................................................................................... .2 ............................................. .3 , . ................................................ .4 (0,70 , ) . ........................................................................................................................ 5 , , , . , . , ( , , ) ( , , , ). . , , , (, 12­ 18 2004 .) (, 8 2004 .), , , : ( ), ( ), - ( ), ( ) - ( , ). , . , . , , , . , . , , . 6 / / ( ) c () (, ) () " ­ ­ " " ­ ­ " () AFAP Administradora de Fondos de Ahorro Provisional () AFJP Administradora de Fondos de Jubilaciones y Pensiones () AFORE Administradora de Fondos para el Retiro () AFP Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones (, , , , , , ) EDAP Entidades Depositarias del Ahorro Provisional () ERISA ( ) IOPS OPC Operadora de Pensiones Complementarios (-) PROST 7 . , . 80 60 , . , . , , , - - ­ , ­ . - , , , , , - . : ) " " (), - ( "" ) 1; b) " ", ; - ; ) " ", , , , ; d) " ", ( , , ), ; e) , . , , , , . 8 , , , ­ , . , , . , , . , . , . , . , . . 1 , , . 2 , . . ­ , -, . , : ) ; b) , ; ) , ­ : d) ("") , , e) () , : , , . 9 , , . , , , , , . . () , . . : , , . , 1990- , . : · , , . : a) , - , , ; b) , , , , , ; d) , , . · 3 5 , . (, ) , , , , . , , , 10 , - . , : ; , (, ), (, ), (, ); . · , , , , , . "" ( ) ( ). , ­ - ­ ( ) . · , . , , , , , . . · . : ) , (- ) ; b) - , ; ) ; d) ( ). , , . 11 , , , , , , . -, , . - , , , . , (, 70 ). , , , , ­ , , . -, , . , . ­ . , , , , ­ . , , - . , . -, , , ( ) . , , . 12 , , . - , . , -, . , . , , : · ­ , , , . · , , , - - . · ­ , . · ­ , , , . , . , . , . , 13 , . , , , , . , , . : · ? ? - ? ? , , , , ? , , ? · - ? , , ? ? , ? · () ? ? , 14 , ? · ? , , , ? , . : · , ? ? , ? · ? , . , , . , , , - . · ? ­ , . , , , , , , , . . , , . 1984 2004 68 204 , . 15 , . , . , , . , , . . . , , . . - ­ ­ . , . : ) , , , ; b) , , - ( ) , , ; ) , ( ), ; d) ; ) , , . 16 "" "" . ( "" ), - ( ) , - ­ , (. 1). , , ( ), , , , . , , , , , , , . , , . , , , . , , . 17 1. - - 0 "" " ", ( ) 1 , , ( - ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 (), () (). : "" (, , ) ( ). 18 , , , , () , , , . , . , , , . , , , , , . . -, ("" ) . , ­ , , , , . , , , , . -, . ("") . ( ), . -, , . , , , , . , , , . , . , , - , 19 . () , . , , , . ­ ­ , . . ­ , , , . , , . , . . -, , ( ). ( PROST ­ ). . , , , , , . -, ( ) , . ­ , , , ­ , ­ . , . , . , , , , , . 20 , . () , , : ) ­ , ; b) , ; ) . , . . , -, 2 . , . ­ . , . , , , (), . , , . , . . , . , , . " " , , , , , . ­ . ( ), , . , 21 , . - , , , , , . , , , . , , , ; (, ). , . , . , . ­ ­ . , , ­ , , . , . : (, ) . : . , : , , . , , , , . , , , . (, ­ , , ; ) . , , 22 , , , , . , , , , . : ) ? b) ? ) ? d) , ? e) , ? , , . , , . , . , , : ) , ; b) ; ) - . , ­ () . , ( ) . , , , . - . , , , , , , , , . , . : ) , , , 23 ; b) ; ) . : ( ) (, , , , ); , ; ; . , , , (, ) , . , . ; ; . , . , , ( , ), , ( , ), , , , . , , . - . , . - , ­ , , . , , . , . , . ­ , , . 24 , . . . , . - , . : , . , . -, , , . . . ­ . , ­ . , , , , , , . . 1990- ­ , . , - . , , ­ , , , ­ - , - . , ­ . 2004 12 , 10 . 25 , , , . , , . , - . , ? - . , . , , . , , , . , , . , , , - . . , . , , , . , , . , . 2004 10 28 . , , . ­ ­ . , , , , , , , , . , , . ( , ) - , , , , 26 . , - , . , , , . . , , , (), , , , . , - . , , ( ), - , , . , , . , , , . , . , , , . , , , , . - , , , 50 ( ­ ), , . , ­ ­ 60­70 . , . , , , , , . , , ( , ) . . - , . 27 . 1 . 2 , , , , . 3 . 4 1984 2004 ; , - . , ; . 5 , ; , . 6 , , . 7 ­ , . 8 . 28 1 . , , . , . , , 2. , -, , , , , . , -. 29 1 . -, , . 2 , . -, , , , , . -, - , , 100 . -, , , . . : , - . , , , . , , , ­ -. ( ), , ( , , , ). , , , , ( ). , , , . , , , . , . . , . . -, , . 30 , 1998 , 6 () . , 4 , . , 3 , , , , . , , , , , . -, , . , , , , . , . - , , . , , . , (. Schwarz and Vashakmadze 2002; Snyder and Yackovlev 2000). - , , , . 10 " " (Averting the Old-Age Crisis, World Bank 1994). , , . . " ", 2002 , (. United Nations 2004), , (. CSIS and Watson Wyatt International 1999) ­ (IMF 2004). . -, . -, ( ) . , -, . . , ­ (IMF 2004; United Nations 2004). , ( 65 ), (85 ) (65 ) ( 15 64 ). , ­ , , , . . -, 60 31 , 2050 80 . -, , , , . (, ) , , , . , , . , 0,5 . , ( ). , ( ). , . 115 , (IMF 2004, 3.1). , , , 2050 0,5 , 0,5 , . 0,5 1 . , 1,5 , 0,5 . . . , . , ( ). , , , , , , (25 , ) 2000 2050 50 , 20 , , 150 . ( ) , , , (Holzmann and Münz 2004). , . , , , . 32 (Barr 2005). : a) b) , . , , , , . , , c) d) , . , " " , . , , , , . ­ , . , 3 , . , . , . . , ó . . -, , . , , . ( , ). -, , ­ , ­ ­ . , , . , , . , , . ( 33 60­80 ) ( 60 55 , ), , . , , . , , ( , ). , , . , , , , , . -, , , . , , , . , , . , . , . , , . , , , , (Holzmann 2001). , , . , , , . , . . -, , / (/) (Kakwani and Subbarao 2005). -, , , , , , (Subbarao 1999). , , , , / (Deininger, García, and Subbarao 2003). -, , . , ; , 34 (Kakwani and Subbarao 2005). , , (. A.1). , (HelpAge International 2004). , , . ­ ­ . , . . , () , , . , . , , (). Dercon (2003) , . , . , , . , , , . , (., , Coate and Ravallion 1993). , , ­ , . , . . - XIX . , , . : -, . , . , , , , XIX . (70 ), , . , , , 35 . , , . . XX - ­ , ­ . , . , . . , . , . , : . ( ) . , "/", , . - , . , , , , () (, 70 72 ). . , , . . , . - , , . , , . , , . , , . , (James, Cox-Edwards, and Wong 2003a, 2003b). , , . , , 50 , , 36 . , . - , , . , ­ 70 . , . , , , . , . , . , , , . ­ , , ­ , (OECD 2003). , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , . , , . , , . 50 , , . , . , , , 67 , , . , , , , , , . 37 , , - , ( , - , ). , . , . , , , . , , . . , (Karacadag, Sundararajan, and Elliot 2003). , , , , ( ) . . ­ , , . , , . , , , , , . , , , (Beck, Levine, and Loayza 2000; Levine 2003). . , , ? , (), . , . : . · . 10 , , . , , . · . : , , , , . 38 , , , . · , , . "" , . "" . "" . (, ) - , . . · . , ­ , , . , , . . · , . , , . · . , , . 39 2 . , , . : , -; , ; ; ; , . ­ ­ . , 4. , -, , , a) ; b) (, , ) (, , ) ; c) , . , , -. . , , , . , , . , , , , , , , , , , . , , , , , , . . Davidoff, Brown, and Diamond (2003) , ( ) , -, ; 40 . , . (, ) ­ . , , , . , ( ), , . , , , . , , , , . (Holzmann and Vodopivec 2005; Vodopivec 2004). , , , , . ­ , , . , , , , "" . , , : · , , . , , ( , , ?). , , , /, . , . · , . , , , , , () , , . , , . 41 ­ . . · , . , , . 1, : , . , , ( ). : , , , . , , (Diamond 2003). , (Holzmann 1990). , , . , , . : , , , , , . , . . , . , , ( , , ) ( , ), . , 42 , , , , , . , , , : (, , , ) ( ) . , . . , . . , , , . , "" , , . , . , . . . , . , , , . , ­ . , , , , , . () . , 43 . (Holzmann 1990). , , . , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . : , 5 , . , , . , , . , " ­ ", ( ) . ­ ( ) ­ , . , , , . : a) " " ( ), 6; b) " ", ; c) " ", ; d) " ", (, , , ), ; e) 44 , , . . . , , . , , , , , , , . , , . , , . , . , , , . , , , , . , , "", "" . , ( ), , ( , ). , , , . , , , . , " " (Holzmann 2000; Lindbeck and Persson 2003; Nataraj and Shoven 2003; Shiller 2003). . , , 7 , . , , 45 , . , , , . , . . , , , , (Müller 2003a, 2003b). , (Holzmann, Orenstein, and Rutkowski 2003). () () , , 8 . . . , ( ) , , . , - ( ) . , () , , , (, ), (, ) - ( ). , , . . : · 1 , , . , , . · 2 46 . , , , , . · 3 - , ( ) ­ ­ . , , ( , ), ; . 1 1 , . : , , , () , , , ( ), () . , ? , , "". , , , . , , , . () () : , . , , , ­ ­ . (Barr 2000, 2001) , . , . , , : , . , , . , . . 47 , , ­ 9 . , , , , . . , ( ) . ( ), . , , , . (López-Murphy and Musalem 2004) , (Bailliu and Reisen 1997; Edwards 1995). 50 ( ) , , . , , . . (Bosworth and Burtless 2003; Smetters 2004). . , , . , . , (60­100 ) . Smetters (2004) , 100 . . , , , , , . 48 . , , , . , (Gruber and Wise 1999; Hofer and Koman 2001); , (Prescott 2004). , , , (Corsetti and Schmidt-Hebbel 1997). ( ) ( ), . , (Corbo and Schmidt-Hebbel 2003). , , , , . , (Impavido, Musalem, and Tressel 2003), , ó (Walker and Lefort 2001). ( ) , , , (Catalán, Impavido, and Musalem 2001); (Impavido, Musalem, and Tressel 2002a); , , , , 10 , (Musalem and Tressel 2003) . (Beck, Levine, and Loayza 2000; Levine 1997, 1999, 2003). (Corbo and Schmidt-Hebbel 2003; Holzmann 1997b), , (Davis and Hu 2004). , . , . , , . , , (Impavido, Musalem, and Tressel 2002b). , (Impavido, Musalem, and Tressel 2002a). , 49 , , . , . , ( ) , , . , () . , , () , , . -, , . -, , , . , , , , . , , ( ). . , : , , , . , , . , ( ) , . , . , , . ( ) ­ , , , . , , . , , . 50 (, James, Smalhout, and Vittas 2001). , , . () , ( , ). ( ). , , , (Sinn 2000). , , (Valdés- Prieto 2002). , , , , (Abel and others 1989). , (Thompson 1998). , , . . . ó , . , , , , (Ooghe, Schokkaert, and Flechet 2003). , - . , , , (Packard 2001). 2 II . (, , ), , (, ). - , . , , , . (), 51 . ( ) 20­30 (Holzmann 1997a). 5­15 , 100­450 . . (, , ). ( ) , , . . , , . , (, ). , ( ) , . , . . , . , 25 . - ( ; . Smetters 2005) ( ), (Holzmann 1997a, 1997b, 1999; Lindbeck and Persson 2003). , . , I, . : () . , , . , , (Holzmann 2000). , , , , , (Müller 2003a, 2003b). , ( ) : 52 ( ) . , . , , , . , . , , . 3 3 - , ( ) . , , , . , , , , , . , , . , , , . , . . , , , . , 20­30 . , . 35 , , 15 100 , (Holzmann, Palacios, and Zviniene 2004). - . , , , . , 70 , ( ) . , , , 300, 400 500 , . . , , , - . , 53 , "" ( ) , (Lindbeck and Persson 2003). , , . , , , . , , , : , . , , . , , , . , , , , . . , , , - . - . . , ­ , , . , , , . 54 3 , , , . , . : , , ? , , , . "" ( ), ( ) , . , , , , , , "" . , , , , . , , , . , , , 40 11 . , , , . , . 60 , , . . , - , , 55 . , - , , , . " " . , . , (, ) (, ). , ­ . , , 20 , ; ­ 10 . "" . , , . , , ( , ) , . , . ( ) (, ), , . , , . "" . . , . , , 12 , . , , . , . : 56 ( ) ­ , (), , , . . , , , , , . , (Barr 2000, 2001). , , , , ­ , , . , . , , , (Holzmann 2000). , - . , , , . , . . -, ? ? - , ? ? , ? , (, )? (, , , , , , ) ( - ) ? . -, ? , , ? - , 57 ( ), . , ? . -, , , ­ PROST ( ), , ( ) . -, () ? ? , ? , ; ; ( , ); . -, ( ) ? , ? , ; ; , ; , . , , . , , ; , (. ). -, , ? , ? , , ? , , . , , ( 58 , ), , . , , , . -, ? , . , , . , , , -. . , , . , , a) ( , , 2004 ­ ); b) , - , 1999 , ; c) ; d) ; ) , , , ( 2003 , - ; . Holzmann and Palmer 2005). -, ? ­ , . , , , , , , . ­ . - , . . , , , . , , . , , , , 59 . , , . - (Primer on Pension Reform), , , , -. , , Web-, , , Web- , (http://www.worldbank.org/pensions). . . (, , , , , ). ; , . -, , . , , (., , Beattie and McGillivray 1995; Gillion 2000; Gillion and others 2000; ILO 2002a). () , (ISSA 1998; Thompson 1998). HelpAge . ­ . - . - , 1998 , , , . . ­ , . , ­ (IOPS) . 60 4 3 , - . , 10 . , . : 1) 2) . . . 1984 2004 . , . , ( ) , , . , , , , . () 1984 "" . , ; , (, , ), ( , , ). , , . 21 ­ 1984 2004 ­ 68 204 , 13. , ( , , 61 ). , " " , . , 21- , 34 . . 14. . , , , 5,5 . . , 16 . 4.1, , . ­ 1 . . ­ 1997­1999 . , , 26,8 . . , , , . , , . ( , ) 20 . ­ ­ , . 13,6 , ( ) 26,5 . 10 . 4.2. 56 ; 3,1 . . . (93) . 4.1. , 1984 2004 , (. . ) (. . ) 1984 5,0 0,4 8,0 1987 80,0 11,4 14,3 1989 181,1 16,3 9,0 1990 295,2 14,2 4,8 1991 654,3 12,3 1,9 1992 1 777,2 163,0 9,2 1993 1 003,1 159,3 15,9 1994 929,0 39,5 4,3 1995 2 237,0 161,9 7,2 1996 947,4 46,7 4,9 1997 2 591,2 985,6 38,0 1998 8 500,8 1 286,5 15,1 62 1999 7 013,0 1 309,3 18,7 2000 2 342,5 788,7 33,7 2001 1 184,5 50,0 4,2 2002 2 687,7 197,5 7,3 2003 1 147,2 149,0 13,0 2004 603,6 76,3 12,6 34 179,8 5 468,0 16,0 : , . . , , - . , , , , , , , , , , . , "" . () . , , , , , , , , . 4.2. (1984­2004 ) (. . ) 14 122,2 26 4 518,4 7 25 1 626,2 93 15 3 067,5 57 6 76,0 9 4 59,0 12 68 5 468,0 204 : , . 63 4.3. , , (1984­2004 ) (. . ) (. . ) , : 120 18 694,8 2 373,9 43,4 92 13 356,4 2 078,2 38,0 10 322,6 125,5 2,3 18 5 015,8 170,2 3,1 , 80 13 824,8 3 094,0 56,6 24 4 105,8 1 432,1 26,2 22 5 634,9 1 170,3 21,4 2 167,0 12,1 0,2 32 3 917,1 479,4 8,8 , - 4 1 660,0 0,0 0,0 204 34 179,8 5 468,0 100,0 : , . - ( ) , . 4.3 , , , . , - : 120 2,4 . . , ­ 80 3,1 . . . (5,2 . . , 90 ) ­ , . (57 ) . 10 125 . . ( 5 ), ­ ( ) ­ 40 (2 . . 68 ). , , , . 4.4 64 , " " , " ". ( , " ", ­ ­ .) , ( ), , . , (21 ) , . 30 , , , (24 68). 4.4. (1984­ 2004 ) (. . ) 43 21 1 648,3 30 24 35 204 100 5 468,0 100 68 100 : , . , , , . : , , , . 4.5 , , , . 943,1 . . , ­ 5,4 . . ; , 17,2 , . 2 . . , ( ) , - . 4.5. , (1984­2004 ) (. . ) 5400 100 943,1 17 : , . 65 - , (, , , ), , (, , , ). 4.1 , , , , . 4.1. ­ : , . , . 4.2 , ó , , . . , , , ­ . 66 4.2. (. . ) : , . , , , . ; , . ó ­ ­ , ; , , , . , , - , . 67 2 , , , . 5 ; , , , . 6 , . , . 7 , , ­ ­ . 8 . 68 5 : , 4, , , , , 15. . , , . , . , , , 4. , ­ . , . , ( ), ( ) (, ). : ) , , , ; b) - , , ; c) , , ( ); d) ; e) , , . . , . , - . , (, , , ); ( ) ( ) ( , 0 2 6 ); 69 (, 2 1,25 ); ; , , . , - , . ( ): ­ . , . - , , . , " ": , , . , , , . -, ­ ­ , , , . , , . , , , , . -, , , , ­ , -, . , , , . , (., , Fox and Palmer 2001; Gillion and others 2000; OECD 1988; Schwarz and Demirguc- Kunt 1999; World Bank 1994). , , , , . - , , , ( / ) (Palmer 2005b). , , ­ "" ( , , , ). , 70 , , , , . ( ), . : , . , . , , (, ) (Disney 1999; Góra and Palmer 2004; Legros 2005). () ( ) , () . , , , ; , - . , , ( ), . , , , , , . , ; , ( ­ , , ). . () ( ) . (, ), , ( ), , . ( / ), (, ). , , . ; 71 , . , , , . , , ­ , ­ , ( , - ). , , - , , (. Palmer 2005a). , , (. Palmer 2000). , - "" . , ­ , ( ; . 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(, ), ( 75 ­ ­ , , ­ ). · , . , . ­ ­ . , . , 5.1 . ­ : · . . ­ ; , , . , , . · . , . , , , , . · . , , . , . . , , , , . , . ­ , , , , , , , . (, , , ), . ­ . 76 ( ) , . , , . , . ( ), . , . , , , , , , . 77 5.1. 0 "" "" , ( ) 1 , , , - ( ) 2 ( ) 3 ( ) 4 (), ( ) ( ) : "" : , , . 78 ; , - , . , . , , , , , , 17. . ( ) , ; , . 1: . ( ) . ( ) . , . ­ ­ , ( ). ( ) , . ( ) . , , . . , . . ( ), ( ). : , . , , : ( ), ­ . . , , , , - . 79 , , . , - , ­ , , . ( ) () . : ­ , - , , , , () , . , . - . 5.2 , , . , ­ , , , ­ . , , , , . , , . , , ( ), . , , , - , , . , , -, - , , ( 1). 80 5.2. : - , , ; - , , , , ; - (, , - ); , ; , ; - ; , , ; , 81 5.2. () , - ( , , , ; ) ; , ; , , - (, , , ; ( ), , ) ; , ; , ( ) ( - ( , ); ); , , ; , ( ) 82 5.2. () , , ; ( ; ) - - ; , "", () , , (); ; , - , - ; , , ( ) - , ; - ; , , (, , ; , ( ); - ) , - ; , 83 : , ; ­ , ­ , . , , , , . , , , . ; , , . , ; , . , , ? , , , , . , ­ ( ). . . - , () . , , , : , ; ; , , . , , , . . , , , . . , - , () . ­ , , ­ , . ( ), , . 84 , , . , ( ), , , . ( - ) , , , ( ) , . , , , , , ­ ­ () . -, . , , , (). , . ( ) . , , . , , - . 85 6 : , , , , . , : , ; ; ; - ; , ; . ­ , . , , , , , , . , ­ , . 10 50 , 20 . , , ( ) , (, , ) (, -), . , , , , , , ­ . , ­ , , (Gill, Packard and Yermo 2004; Holzmann 2003, Holzmann, Packard and Cuesta 2001). , , . , ­ , . . , . , . , 86 . , , . , , , , . , , ( , , - ), ( ) . , ( , ) ( ). , , , , , . , . , , . ( ) , , . , , , . , , (. ILO 2002b). , , , . ­ "" "" . : ) , ; b) , , ( , ), ) d) , . , , , , , , , . 87 , , , , . , - , . , ­ , , , ­ , . , , . "" . . ( ) , , , , . .2 . , . , , , ­ , . ­ , , . , , , ( ). , , , , , ( ). , (, ), , , (, ). 15 (Kakwani and Subbarao 2005) (, ). , . , , , . , , (, , ), , , 88 . , , , , , ( .3). , , . () . (0,70 , ) ­ , ( .4). , 60 1 3 , , , , . 2 15 ­ 5­10 , . , , , , . , , , . , : ) , b) ) . . ( 2 . ), 75 ; . ( 87 , , , ) , , . , 0,1 . , , , , , . , . , (, ) . (, ) , , , (, , ). ­ , 89 , . , , . , , . . (Coady, Grosh, and Hoddinott 2004). , , . . : , . , (, ). , , , , . . , , . , , , , , , , . , ( ) , , . , , . , , . , , , , . , , . , , , . . , , , . , . 90 , , . , , ­ , . , , , . , (, , , , ­ ) ( ). , . , , , . , , . . , , ­ ­ , . , , , . , , . , , . , . ­ -. ( , ), , , . , , . , , . , , , , , , . , . , . 91 . , . , , , , - . , , . , ( ), , , . , . , , , , . , . , , . , , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , , , , ­ . ­ , . , , , , (Andrews 1999). ( ) . . , , , , 70 . ­ . , 92 , ; , . , , , , " " ­ " " . , , . , , , ( ), . . , 10 , , (Grushka and Demarco 2003). , ( 2003), ( ). , ­ . , ( ­ , ). , 2002 , . , -, , . , , . , , . ( ) , , - . 50 , . , -, . , , , . , 93 (, ) , , . (Holzmann and Palmer 2005). , - . , , , . : , . , . , 60 ; 70 . , . ( ), . "" , " ", , (James, Cox-Edwards, and Wong 2003a, 2003b). , - (; . 6.1). , - , , ( , , ). . , , . , - , . ( ) (). , , ( ) , , . , (Palacios and Whitehouse 2004). 94 , : , ; , , ; , , , . , , , 1 2004 , , 20 : , , . , , , , . , , , , , , . , , , , (Holzmann 2005). 95 6.1. , - : Palacios and Whitehouse 2004. ­ , , , . , ; , , , , . , . , , ( ) , . ( ), . (); , ; , , . , PROST . , 96 , . , ( , ). , . ( ) , . - . , . , , , 40 , 20, 30 . (, ) 75- . ( ; . Heller 2003). , (Holzmann, Palacios, and Zviniene 2004), , . , . , . . (, ). , 20 ( ) (Holzmann 1999)19. . , , . ( ); , . , . . , , ­ ( ) ­ . 97 , , ( ). ( , ), ( , ), . (, ) , , . , , - (Smetters 2002): , , . , , , , , (. 6.2). , , . " ", , , , (Cichon and others 2004). 98 6.2. (%) 12,3 16,6 7,0 8,7 8,4 10,8 : Carmichael and Palacios 2004. , , : , () . , , , (Iglesias and Palacios 2001). ( 20 ) , , , . , , ? , , : ) ­ "" ­ ; b) , ( ); ) , 99 , . ­ ­ , - . , , . , , . , , . , , . , , , , , , . . , , . , , . , , , , , . , , . , , . , ( ­ , ). (, ) , , , , , . , (, ) , , . - , 1990- . , . , , , 100 "" . : ) , , b) , , , , . , . , , , . , , . , . , -, , , , (. Musalem and Palacios 2004; Palacios 2002) (Orszag and Stiglitz 2001). , - 20. , , . , , . , , . () . , (ISSA 2004). . (ISSA 2004) , , . , , , , " , / , , , , , , " (ISSA 2004, 7). 101 . , . ,, , , , -, , 21. . , . . . , , . . . . . ( ) , , , . , . , . , . , , . , . , ( , ), , , . . , . , , . , , , , 102 . , . , , . , , . , , . , . , (ERISA). ERISA " " ( ), " " ( , ) , . , . , , . , ­ , . ­ ( ). , . , , , , . , . . ­ , , , . , . . , . . , (, ). 103 . , , . , , , , , , . , , , , . , . . . . , . , ; ; - ; , ; ­ , ; , , , . , , , ; , ­ , . , , . . , , ­ . , , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , . , . 104 , . , . . , . , . , 60 . , (, ). . , . , . . , , , . , , . , , , . , - , . , , , , , . - , , , . , , , . -, , , , , , . , , , . 105 . (, ), (, , , ). (, ). , . . , , , . . , . , ­ . , , ( ). ­ , . . , , . , , . ­ , , . , (, ) , , , , . , . , . , . , . , . , , , , 106 . , . ( ), , - . , . , : ) ; b) , , ) . , , , , , ­ . . , , , , . . . , ( ), . ( ). , , . , 1930- . - : " " " " , , , . " " , , . : · . (Demarco and Rofman 1999). (, , ) ( ). · . . · . , 107 ( -, ), ( ), , , , . . · . , . · . . , , , , , ("" ). , . , " " . , , . . - , . , , . 6.3 . , , "" . , , ( ). , ; . , , , ó , . 108 6.3. " " " " . " . (. 6.4). (, ) , . , ( ), , . , , . . 109 6.4. : , 3 .. .. ( ) () , . ( ), ( , ) . , , , , . , , . , . (Dilnot and Johnson 1993; Whitehouse 1999), : 1) : ? 2) , "" " "? 3) ? . . , , , , . , , . , . 110 , . , . , . , . , , . , - , . , , , , , , . , (, " ­ ­ " ­ []). , ­ ( ­ " ­ ­ " ­ []). ( ) . . , ( ). , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . , , , . , ­ , ­ . , , . . ( ) , ­ , , 401(k) ­ . , , , ( ) ­ ­ , . , , . , 111 . , , (Antolin, de Serres, and de la Maisonneuve 2004; Yoo and de Serres 2004). , , . , , , , . , , , , . , , . , () ; ­ ­ , ; , . , ( ) . , , - , , , . ( : James, Smalhout, and Vittas 2001; OECD 2001a; Whitehouse 2000; World Bank 2003a; Yermo 2002). , . ( ) , , . , , , , , . , . , , . , , . , . , , , . , , (, , ), , . , 112 , , (Whitehouse 2000). , () () , . . , , (), , "" "". , , . - , , ( ), ( ) , . , , , ( ) ( ). , , ( . World Bank 2003a). , . ; , , . . , , , , . , ( , ) , , , , . (, , ) . , , . ( ). ­ 0,67 1988 0,07 1999 (Hustead and Hustead 2001; James, Smalhout, and Vittas 2001). 22. . 113 . , . , , , , - , . (, ) , . . , , (, , , , ), . , ­ . , . -, , . . ( ). - , . ( ) : , , . ? ( ) , ( ) . , . , , ( , ), ? ? ? ? ? ? 23? : ) ? b) ? ) ? d) ? ) ? 114 ? , , , . ( ) , . , , , (, , ). , "" , () . , . , , . ? . , , , 10-15 . , , . (, ) , . ( ), . , : ) ; b) ; ) , d) (, ). ? -, , , . , 10 . , ? , (, ). , , , , ( ) . , , , , , , 115 . , , (Impavido, Musalem, and Vittas 2002). ? , , ; . ( ) , , . ( , , ) , , . , , , , . , . , (Impavido, Thorburn, and Wadsworth 2004). , ( ) , , . , ( ) , , , . ? , , . (, ). , " " ( , ) " ", . ­ , , - , ­ , , - . , . ( ), , , . ( , ) . , , ( , 116 ), , , , . , . . - , . , , , ; , " ", , 100 (., , James, Vittas, and Song 2001). , . ? ? , , . - , , , . , , ( " "). : , , "" , . , , , . , "" , . , , , . , , , , . , , . "" - . , , , 117 , . , : ) , , ? b) , -? ) ? d) ? , , . , . , , (Impavido, Musalem, and Vittas 2002). : ) , , , ( ); b) , , , ; ) . , , , , . . -, () "". , ( , , , ). -, (, ). -, (, ), , ( , ). , . ­ ­ . , , . , , , , . , - . , 118 , . . ­ ­ . , . ( , , ), . , . . , , , , . , , , , . . . , , , , , . , , - , , . , . , , (Vittas 2000): ) ; b) ; ) . ? , , : , , - ? , - (OECD 2004b). , . (Carmichel and Pomerleano 2002; Hinz and Rao 2003; Rocha, Hinz, and Gutiérrez 2001; Vittas 1998a, 1998b). 119 , (, ), , , . , " ­ ", , , , , . " ". , , . , , , . . . : ) ; b) , , ; ) ( ); d) ( ) ( ); ) ; f) ; g) . , , , ) ( , ?); b) , ; ) ( ?); d) ; ) . ? , , . , , . : ) , , ; b) ; ) ; d) ; ) ; f) ; g) . : ) ; b) , , , 120 ; ) ; d) . , ( ) , ( , , , ). , . , , . , , , , , . , , . , . , , (, , ), . , , , , . , . : - ; , , , . . , ? , ? ? , , . , , , , , , , (Glaessner and Valdés-Prieto 1998; Impavido, Musalem, and Vittas 2002). . . , , 121 , . . , , "", , , , , . . , , , 1,5­4 , (Bossone, Honohan, and Long 2001). , - . , , , , ( ). , - . , . , "" "" . , , , , , , , (Palacios 2002). () (von Gersdorff 1997). , , , , , , , . , ( , ), , , , (Kotlikoff 1999). , , , , . , . , , ( ­ 20 10 6­7 2004 ). , , , : ? , , . , , , ; , 122 . , , . ( ­ ), . , , , , , . , , , , . , , . . , , . , , . , , , . , , ( ), , , , . , , , . , , (Impavido, Musalem, and Vittas 2002). , , , . - , . , , , . , , . , , ; , , 123 (Karacadag, Sundararajan, and Elliot 2003; Prasad and others 2003). , . , , , , , , , , ? . (Bodie and Merton, 2001; Vittas 2003), . , , , . , , , . , , , , , ­ . - , - . , , , , (Holzmann, Orenstein, and Rutkowski 2003)24. , (Orenstein 2000) , , , . (Orenstein 2000) : , . , . . , . , . , . , . : . , . , . 124 , . : . , , , , . . , , , ­ , , ­ , , , ­ ­ , - . , . : · , ; · , ; · , ; · , , , , , , , , . . , . , , , , . , ­ , . . , . , . , . : . , , . ­ , , ( "" (Consar) 125 "" (Procesar)), , . , . , . , -, : , , , , , . , , , : · ; · ; · ; · ; · ; · , ; · ; · . , : · , . · , . , , . · . 126 · , , , . , ó . - , ­ , , ó , , , (Diamond 1997). , , . ) ( ), b) , - , ) (- ). , . , , , , . ­ " " ( ). , ( , ) , , . , . , , , , , , . , - , . , , -; , . , , , , ­ . , . , , , ? , , , . , , , 127 . ( )? ? , , ? 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() 22 17 ­ 9,25 26 21,5 , 20 20 ? ? ­ ­ ? OPC AFP EDAP AFP 4,25 7,5 8,33 8 () c 2,5 4,0 2,0 ( ) ­ ? ­ ? , ­ ? ? : Gill, Packard, and Yermo (2004), AIOS (2003) . : AFP (Administradora de Fondos de Pensiones); EDAP (Entidades Depositarias del Ahorro Provisional); OPC (Operadora de Pensiones Complementarios). ­ . . - 1996 , 2000 . b. 2003 . c. . , , 28. 131 - ; , . , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , , , , . , , , . 2020 . , 29. , . , . , - , , , , , , , 30. , , , , 31. , , . , . "", , ( ), (ex ante) . , ­ , ­ 10 15 , ­ , ­ 30 80 . , 132 , , , . : , 32. , , ­ , ­ ( , , ) , , , . "" . , 100 . , , - 33. , . , , , . , , 34. , , , , ( ) , . , , - . , : , , , . , ( 20 40 ) , (. Zviniene and Packard 2003). , ­ , . , . . 133 . , , . , ­ . , 15 , , . : "" , "" ­ . , ­ . 7.1 7.2 , ( , ). , , , , , , . , ( ). , , , , , - , , . , , , , -, . , , , . , . . , , ; "" ( , ). , , . , , , . 134 (Zviniene and Packard 2003), . , 8,5 , 2050 , , 0,9 . 2,3 0,6 . , , , , 2050 118 , 15 . , , 210 148 , , 35. , . , , , , , - . , . , 1981 . , , , ó . . . , 36. , , , , . , , - , 20 40 . . , , , . - , . , , , . , , ­ ­ . , . 2001 2002 , 135 , , , , , , . , , , . , , , , . - , , , . , , , . , , , , , . , 37. , , , , , . , - (Corbo and Schmidt- Hebbel 2003) , , : , . . , , , 38. , , , . ­ . , . , . ; , , . , , 136 . , , , : , , , , . ; , , . , , , . (1990­1995 ) . 39. . , , . , - . (, , , , ). , , 1990- . , , . , , 65 , , . 1990- 2000- , . 1990- , , . : . , ( , , , ). , ( ) , , . , ( . Lindeman, Rutkowski, and Sluchynskyy 137 2001). , , ; . 2000 , , , , , , . , ­ . , , ( . Rutkowski 1998, 2002; von Gersdorff and Rutkowski 2004). , . , ( ), , , . , , , , . 10 . 1997 1998 . , . 1999 2,1 , ( 40 ), (6 ) ( . Palacios and Rocha 1998). 1999 30 50 (7,2 ) ( . Chlon, Góra, and Rutkowski 1999; Góra and Rutkowski 1998). 30 . 8 . 2001 (2 ), 9 . 2002 ( 5 ), , ( ). 2002 () (). 2002 , - , . ­ ­ ( , ­ ); . 2003 138 ( ), , . , 2004 , 2,5 ; . , 2005 . , 7 , ; 8 , ( ). , , , , ­ , . , , 2003 , -, . , . , , , , , ( ). , , , - . - , . . , , . ; , . 7.3 , , . , . , , . ­ , . , , ­ ­ . , , , , . 139 , . , , . , , - ; , , , . , (Rutkowski 2004). 140 7.3. , ; 2004 2020 , 2003 , 1998 6 31 45 ; , 1998 10 30 100 , 1999 - 7,2 33 70 30 ; 30­ 50- , 2001 - 2, 9 20 72 (- 30 ; 30­ 50- , 1996 ) , 2002 5 25­30 60­70 40 ; 40­ 50- , 2002 2, 5 ­ ­ 42 , 2005 9 ­ ­ , 2002 6 20 60 ( + 2 ) , 2004 2,5 ­ ­ , 2003 8 30 ­ , , 20 , 2005 7 26 ­ , 2002 - 2 ( ­ ­ 35 ) 6 ( 50 36­50-) , 2003 2, 7 ­ ­ , 2002 10 ­ ­ : . ­ . . - , , . 141 . , ( ). , . (, , ) . , . , (Murthi 2003), . (, ) , - . ( , ), , , , , , ( ""). , , , . - . ; , . , , , , , ( , ). ó . , , , , 30 . . , , , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , 142 . , , , . , , . , . , . , , , , . , ­ . , , 40 , , 65 , 30 . . , , , , . , , , . . , , , ­ . , , . , , , . , . 32- 97- . , , 81 1991 32 1995, , . , , , . , , . 143 , ; , , , , . , : 20 45 ( ). , . , 2005 , ; . , , , , . , , . , , . , . , , . , . . , . . , , . , . , ; , , , . , , ó . 144 -, , - 40. (, -), (, ). - ; . : . , . ; , , -, . , , , . , , . . , () , , , . , , , , . , 50 -. , , () (), . , , - . , , ­ . , , . . , : . , . , , . , - 145 , . , , 75 . . . ­ , , . ­ , , . , (Palacios and Rajan 2004). , ( ) . , , , , , , . . - " ", . , . , , . , , . ­ , , . ­ , . , (Palacios 2004). ­ . 1990- 15 . 1 2004 10 , . , , . , -, , , , , . 146 , . (, , , ), , . - , 2003 . 8 , 12 . , 32 70- . , 3 2,1875. 24 , . , , , , 2004 41. . , . . , , , . , "" . , . , , . , . 42. . , . ; 147 , . , . , , , (, , ). , , , . , , , , . , , , , . . , , . (Conférence Interafricaine de la Prévoyance Sociale) ­ , . - . , 14 -43. , . , , , . , , . , : . 10 , 10 , . , - , . , , . , . . , ­ , 148 . 1990- , , , . , , , , . , . , , , , . , . , , ; , , , . , . 1990- . . , , , , . , , . , , , . ­ , , . (, , ) , . ó . , . , - . . , , /, , . . , , , 149 . , , (Kakwani and Subbarao 2005). , , . ­ , ­ . , (, , ) , , , . , . , , , . , . , , 2000 , . , . , , . : , , . , ­ ­ . -, , , , , . , , , , , . , . 2003 , , , ­ . , ( ). ; , . , . , 44. ­ 150 , ­ . , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , ( ), , . 10 75 . . -, , . , , 70 , , 24 . -, . , (75 ) , (77 ) . , , , : 21 10 . 25 40 . , . , , , 80 . 100 . , , 35 . ; , . , ( 60 ), , , . , , - (80- ), . , . 0,5 () 5 () , 3 . , , , 151 . , . , , , ( 55 ). , , 30 100 , 45. , . , , . , . , , . , . , - , . , . , , , , , . , . , . , . , 46. . , , . . , . , . . , , , . , . . , , 152 , . , . . , , , . ( ) , . , , , ( ). , . , , . . , . , ( ). , , , . , . , . ; ; , . 47. , . , . , , . : , . , 153 . (), , 2001 , , . (), , , ­ . , , , , . , , , , , . (, ) , . . , 15­20 , , . , , , , . . ( 10 ), , ­ , . , . , . , . . , , , . , , . ( ). , , , . , . , , . 154 , . , - . , , , . , , . , , ; . , , . . , , , . ( ) . , , . , , . : . . . (, ) , . - , , . , . , , , . , . , , . , . 155 8 . , -, , . , , . , - , ; . , . , . "" . , , , , , , , . -, , , , , . , . , , . , . , , , . 156 , , - , . , . 157 .1. . , , , , , , - 14,6 12,2 18,8 18,3 15,4 18,6 16,7 , 1998 , 26,2 27,0 33,6 23,1 26,2 24,3 25,9 1998 , 22,6 23,8 21,1 25,3 22,5 27,3 23,4 1996 10,0 16,0 25,1 14,3 10,5 13,9 11,1 ', 1998 , 9,9 12,1 10,7 11,0 9,9 11,4 10,2 2000 , 20,9 24,7 11,8 31,0 23,7 30,6 25,6 1998 , 14,4 12,0 22,3 19,8 14,9 18,9 15,7 1998 , 10,2 13,0 21,7 14,0 10,9 14,3 11,8 1994 , 17,1 15,9 21,6 21,0 17,1 21,2 17,7 1997 , 27,1 17,6 25,1 26,1 27,1 25,1 26,9 2001 , 26,5 25,6 33,7 29,6 26,5 30,5 27,1 1997 , 29,4 19,2 31,9 29,8 29,2 31,3 29,4 1996 , 28,3 12,1 26,8 38,1 29,0 34,1 29,9 1996 , 16,7 20,1 22,9 15,9 16,6 17,2 16,7 1999 , 32,8 41,6 59,3 44,1 33,0 46,5 34,7 1998 : Kakwani and Subbarao 2005. 158 .2. 65 , - (. % , 2002 ) d 1993 70 13% 113 006 153 0,23 (2000) 1998 57 5% 403 110 2 - (2002) a 1993 , 65 6% ­ 20 0,90 1996 65 5% 71 000 24 0,40 (1999) (1974) 67 8% 1 215 988 87 0,30 b 1993 (2000) 1992 60 ­ 6 024 328 91,6% ­ , 87 1,00 , (2000) 8,4% ­ 55 1980 1981 70 11% 163 338 60 0,38 (2001) - 1995 65 8% 41 620 30 0,30 - (2000) 39 1995 65 8% 2 200 000 2 0,01 (2000) 1976 60 9% 112 000 58 (60­89 ) 2,00 (2001) 220 (90­99 ) 252 ( 100 ) 1990 60 6% 82 000 26 0,7 (1999) 1995­1996 75 6% 191 953 2 ­ (2001­2002) 159 1992 ( 65 6% 2 002 320 93 1,4 , 60 (2003) (2003 .) (2002 .) 1997) - 1939 ­ 10% 425 477 1,25 ( 4 ­ (2000) ) 1995 70 17% 64 600 90 0,62 (2001) , 1990 65 ­ ­ 30 ­ : Barrientos and Lloyd-Sherlock 2002; Bertranou 2002; Delgado and Cardoso 2000; ISSA 1999; Rajan 2003; Rajan, Perera, and Begum 2002; South Africa, Department of Social Development 2002, 2003; United Nations Population Division 2002; Willmore 2003; World Bank 2001g. : . , . ­ . a , 1995 20 . 1997 , 1998 , 2002 . b RMV (renda mensual vitalicia ­ ) (beneficio de prestação continuada ­ ). c , , , , . d . 160 .3. , . , , , , , , -, 1998 1,90 0,01 0,02 1,28 2,40 0,81 , 1998 23,44 0,24 0,51 3,24 23,71 3,72 , 1996 6,56 0,06 0,05 2,89 7,53 2,02 ', 1998 2,89 0,04 0,04 1,21 3,26 0,90 , 2000 8,43 0,09 0,11 2,24 8,82 2,05 , 1998 8,08 0,03 0,01 9,10 11,71 5,51 , 1998 7,44 0,16 0,21 3,01 8,36 2,39 , 1994 3,43 0,04 0,13 2,85 4,44 2,01 , 1997 8,05 0,18 0,14 1,83 8,27 1,92 , 2001 9,04 0,07 0,07 1,39 9,39 1,14 , 1997 20,85 0,28 0,46 3,90 21,53 3,97 , 1996 21,91 0,19 0,27 4,49 22,94 3,92 , 1996 9,70 0,09 0,10 2,83 10,34 2,39 , 1999 7,16 0,15 0,19 1,73 7,52 1,71 , 1998 18,91 0,19 0,17 4,49 19,77 3,99 : Kakwani and Subbarao 2005. 161 .4. (0,70 , ) . , 60 65 60 65 -, 1998 2,11 1,39 1,19 0,79 , 1998 3,05 2,09 1,81 1,26 , 1996 1,55 0,96 0,97 0,63 ', 1998 1,11 0,69 0,52 0,33 , 2000 3,74 2,36 1,63 1,03 , 1998 2,83 1,89 1,93 1,24 , 1998 3,30 2,29 1,50 1,04 , 1994 2,66 1,62 1,17 0,72 , 1997 2,06 1,42 1,11 0,76 , 2001 1,15 0,72 0,64 0,40 , 1997 3,13 2,18 2,24 1,55 , 1996 2,92 1,75 1,93 1,15 , 1996 2,68 0,99 1,00 0,55 , 1999 1,86 1,27 0,97 0,69 , 1998 1,68 1,06 1,33 0,84 : Kakwani and Subbarao 2005. 162 1. ­ , , . , . 2. , - , . , (Heller, Hemming, and Kohnert 1986) (OECD 1988). (1994) , , , . , , , , , ( 7). - ( ­ Charlton and McKinnon 2001). 3. , , . , , (http://www.worldbank.org/pensions). 4. . Holzmann and Jorgensen (2000, 2001); . World Bank (2000b); , . World Bank (2001f). , , . (www1.worldbank.org/sp/risk_management). 5. " " (Averting the Old-Age Crisis, World Bank 1994), . . . Vittas (1993). 6. "" . . 7. . Alier and Vittas (2001); Burtless (2000). . 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