The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC | Myanmar | Water Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2015 | Seq No: 10 | ARCHIVED on 21-Dec-2019 | ISR39630 | Implementing Agencies: Republic of the Union of Myanmar, Directorate of Water Resources and Improvement of River Systems, Ministy of Transport Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 09-Dec-2014 Effectiveness Date: 10-Jun-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 01-Mar-2018 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 19-Mar-2018 Original Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 Revised Closing Date: 30-Sep-2020 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? Yes Board Approved Revised Project Development Objective (If project is formally restructured) The program development objective for the Series of Projects (of which the AIRBM will be the first) is to strengthen integrated,climate resilient management and development of the Ayeyarwady River Basin and national water resources. The project development objective of the AIRBM is to contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady river, and, in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency, to provide immediate and effective response to said Eligible Crisis or Emergency. Components Table Name Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building:(Cost $29.70 M) Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization:(Cost $29.20 M) Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River:(Cost $37.90 M) Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response:(Cost $3.20 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating High High 12/21/2019 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Implementation Status and Key Decisions Progress towards achieving PDO: Since May of 2019, the project has seen substantial progress across all components. A Project Restructuring Paper was approved and disclosed on December 9, 2019. The project extension of 18 months will enable the timely completion of all ongoing activities. Nonetheless, the Progress towards Achievement of the PDO remains at ‘Moderately Satisfactory’ in response to the delayed disbursement progress. Nearly 5 year of project implementation less than 50% of the credit amount has been disbursed. The performance rating for Component 2 has been upgraded to ‘satisfactory’ to reflect the progress made across all activities under Component 2 in the past months, and the first contours of the modernization of DHM are becoming visible. A summary of the implementation progress is presented below.  Component 1 (C1): Integrated Water Resources Management. The World Bank carried out a comprehensive review of the draft Water Law and made several recommendations. The Special Procurement Notice (SPN) for the construction of the NWRC/HIC headquarters building has been published in the national Myanmar Newspapers and at the UNDB website. The World Bank noted substantial progress with the development of the Basin Master Plan and Decision Support System (DSS). On this basis, the next steps are specific, sector focused workshops to further refine the development scenarios and improve the usefulness of the DSS for planning and decision making. The first sector workshop for agriculture and fisheries has been tentatively agreed for February 2020 and will be held in in collaboration with IWMI.  Component 2 (C2), Hydro-met Modernization. DMH has completed a second draft version of the hydromet law, informed by earlier comments from the World Bank, and consultations with Ministry of Planning and Finance, parliamentarians and private sector service providers. The law also makes specific provision for public-private sector engagement and makes reference to a data policy. The World Bank reviewed the law and found it to be satisfactory. Capacity building activities under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) contract have started and there has been immediate progress in accessing and visualizing composites of radar data. DMH shows continued progress towards the modernization of DMH’s observation system and weather and flood forecasting. Several contracts will be signed in the coming 2 months, notably G2-4 Automatic Weather Stations, G2-13 Data Centre, and G2-10 Automatic Water Level Monitoring Stations.  Component 3 (C3), Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River. DWIR has piloted the implementation of 6,000 concrete frames (herewith: “porcupines”) in two anabranches of the Ayeyarwady near Mandalay, to test their functionality as an innovative and low- cost channel stabilization solution. The ISM visited the two sites and noted the development of sandbars for those areas covered by porcupines, limiting the inflow in the channel whilst reducing bank erosion near local villages. Stretch 1 Engineering Design is well underway. The second package for the installation of Aids-to-Navigation between Nyaung-U and Yangon has been placed on hold as the cost exceeds the available project funds. Lastly, the preparation of the Resources Management and Operation Plan (RMOP) has started. A contract for the purchase of two cutter-suction dredgers is currently under negotiation.  Component 4 (C4, CERC/IRM). The Bank team conducted a field visit to a sample of the 90 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) and 10 Automatic Water Level Monitoring Stations, installed under the IRM and noted room for improvement, especially related to: i) site selection, ii) equipment selection, iii) data management and iv) warrantees and spare parts. The last mission recommended a thorough post-mortem of the installation to draw lessons learned and consider additional measures needed to ensure the equipment is fully functional and integrated into the wider DMH hydromet system. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- High High Macroeconomic -- Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Substantial Substantial Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Substantial Substantial 12/21/2019 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- High High Stakeholders -- High High Other -- -- -- Overall -- High High Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To contribute to the development of integrated river basin management on the Ayeyarwady River IN00782029 ►Component 1: River Basin Master Plan Developed (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: The Bank team noted substantial progress with the development of the Basin Master Plan and Decision Support System (DSS) following the technical mission that was held in August 2019 when the Comments: Bank team reviewed the C1.17 report “Scenario Formulation and Assessment Methodology”. IN00782038 ►Component 2: Improved DMH weather and climate services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 45.00 0.00 45.00 65.00 Date 01-Jul-2018 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: User Satisfaction Index is calculated based on the results of a survey in terms of user perception of usefulness, lead-time and accuracy of forecasts and warnings. The Baseline was established at the Monsoon Forum 2018. This survey has been repeated at the Monsoon Forum 2019 on 5 November 2019 - from which results are not yet made available. Nevertheless, it is not expected to see significant improvements as packages focused on improved services for key sectors have just been initiated. . Comments: Revised RF: Revised Indicator name: "Improved DMH weather and climate services (custom, %)", Revised Indicator definition: A User Satisfaction Index of > 65% of users scoring DMH services as “moderately satisfactory” or “good. The baseline was established during the project at the Monsoon Forum 2018 as 45%". IN00782042 ►Component 3: Improved Navigation between Mandalay and Yangon to desired operating standards (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 30.00 80.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: DWIR has piloted the implementation of 6,000 concrete frames (herewith: “porcupines”) in two Comments: anabranches of the Ayeyarwady near Mandalay, to test their functionality as an innovative and low-cost 12/21/2019 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) channel stabilization solution enhancing navigation in the main channel whilst reducing bank erosion near local villages. Stretch 1 Engineering Design is well underway with the completion of the task 3 report, outlining alternatives for navigation enhancement interventions. Bidding Documents for the installation of Aids to Navigation between Yangon and Nyaung-U are ready Tender start is pending allocation of funds to cover the activities. Overall Component 3 shows significant progress compared to last ISR in achieving the PDO. Revised RF: Revised Indicator name: "Improved Navigation between Mandalay and Yangon to desired operating standard as identified by Navigation Design/Feasibility Study (percentage)". Revised Indicator Description: "Navigation improvements are defined as safe and effective (day/night) navigation, and is achieved through operational interventions (topo-hydrographic surveys and charting, dynamic management of aids to navigation, and river regulating works). Percentage length is defined as the proportion of actual length of day/night navigation related to the river length between Mandalay and Yangon." CERC - To provide immediate and effective response in the event of an Eligible Crisis or Emergency IN00782028 ►Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 14-Jun-2016 -- 10-Dec-2019 30-Jun-2020 Status update: DMH has submitted a final report justifying the installation of 100 Automatic Weather Comments: Stations (AWS) by UNOPS financed through the IRM component. Overall Comments PDO The level II restructuring that was approved and disclosed on December 9 2019 included changes to the Results Framework (RF). The main changes to the Results Framework (RF) are to better capture the evolution of the project, especially at the PDO level towards improved outcomes rather than outputs and to better align the RF with the revised project scope and activities. As such, two PDO level indicators have been shifted to an Intermediate Results (IR) level Indicator; PDO level indicator descriptions have been revised; three IRs will be revised to fine tune indicator names to better reflect the indicator, one IR will be cancelled, and six new IRs were introduced. Targets and target end dates have been revised in response to the extension of the project end date till March 2022. Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component 1: Water Resource Management Institutions, Decision Support Systems & Capacity Building IN00782030 ►Component 1.1: River Basin Master Plan - State of the Basin Assessment Report (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 16-Nov-2017 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status Update: The State of the Basin Report has been completed. Comments: IN00782033 ►Component 1.2 : Ayeyarwady River Basin Decision Support System (Yes/No, Custom) 12/21/2019 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No No No Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: The World Bank noted substantial progress with the development of the Basin Master Plan and Decision Support System (DSS). On this basis, the next steps are specific, sector focused workshops to further refine the development scenarios and improve the usefulness of the DSS for planning and decision making. The first sector workshop for agriculture and fisheries has been tentatively agreed for February Comments: 2020 and will be held in in collaboration with IWMI. Revised RF: Revised Indicator Description: "Functional decision support system fit for purpose for multi-sectoral basin planning including hydrologic, hydraulic, and water quality models coupled with GIS based user interface". IN00782036 ►Component 1.3. Preparation of Feasibility Studies for Future Investments (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 2.00 Date 14-Nov-2014 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Two preparatory activities under the Preparation of Future Investments (PFI) are underway (Stretch 1 engineering design and ESIA and Pan Hlaing Vision). The Pan Hlaing Vision study and the Dutch Comments: financed “Regional Water Security Study (RWSS) together aim at identifying no-regret water infrastructure projects for the Greater Yangon Region. IN00782039 ►Capacity building and gender (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 500.00 1,500.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 16-Nov-2017 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 The revised results Framework includes an increase in percentage of female participation (raised from 40% to 50%) in response to recommendations made in the May 2019 Portfolio Review meeting. The next mission is likely to show that the target percentage of female participation is achieved, given current strong performance and additional focus on increasing women's participation by all components. Comments: The level II restructuring also include an increase in the number of participants to training, community and stakeholder engagement meetings to 1500 (from 500). The records show that the old targets have currently already been achieved. IN00782045 Capacity building - percentage of participants female (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 40.00 40.00 50.00 IN00782043 ►Component 1.4: NWRC and its institutions legalized (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- No Yes Date 04-Dec-2014 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 12/21/2019 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) The Bank team carried out a comprehensive review of the draft Water Law and detailed recommendations were shared during the mission. A technical mission will be scheduled in January-February 2020 to Comments: provide further support to the finalization of the Water Law as well as the Law to institutionalize the National Water Resources Committee (NWRC) IN00782044 ►Grievances registered related to delivery of project benefits addressed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 80.00 Date 31-Jul-2014 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: The November ISM facilitated a comprehensive discussion of the GRM system. The PMU receives and responds to complaints regularly, coming in through contractors, supervising consultants, local DWIR offices and PMU safeguards specialists. The PMU agreed to include reporting on grievances Comments: received and resolved in the regular project reporting including progress reports and develop a grievance database. Component 2. Hydro-meteorological Observation and Information Systems Modernization IN00782032 ►Component 2.1: Hydromet System Design (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 09-Dec-2014 05-Apr-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: Draft design presented in January 2018 and finalized by April 2018. Comments: Revised RF: targets revised. IN00782034 ►Component 2.2: Hydromet Stations Upgraded (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 48.00 100.00 161.00 Date 09-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: Installation of 100 hydromet stations under the IRM (component 4) by UNOPS has completed. The PMU is evaluating the requirements for full integration in DMH's hydromet system. Comments: Revised RF: PDO indicator Hydro-met stations functioning per SOP (percentage) and IRI “Hydromet stations upgraded (percentage)” combined. Revised indicator name is “ Hydromet stations upgraded (number, custom)” IN00782041 ►Component 2.3 The development of site-specific weather forecasts (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 3.00 -- 3.00 17.00 Date 04-Dec-2014 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: Procurement of related packages is ongoing. The package (S2.4) that focus on the development Comments: of site-specific weather forecasts has just been initiated. 12/21/2019 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Component 3. Navigation Enhancement on the Ayeyarwady River IN00782035 ►Component 3.1 Channel stabilization Works for Sub-project 1 completed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 80.00 100.00 Date 04-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2018 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: River bank protection works under Sub-project 1 have been successfully completed. DWIR has piloted the implementation of 6,000 concrete frames (also known as “porcupines”) for two locations in the Ayeyarwady near Mandalay, to test their functionality as an innovative and low-cost river stabilization Comments: solution. Revised RF: Revised Indicator Description: "Channel stabilization Works for Sub-project 1 completed (percentage)" IN00782037 ►Component 3.2 Aids to Navigation installed (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 30.00 100.00 Date 30-Sep-2015 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: Aids to navigation for Stretch 1 between Mandalay and Nyaung U were installed. Supply of Aids to Navigation between Nyaung U and Yangon (G3.15) is under procurement process. The Bidding Comments: documents are completed but the start of procurement is pending availability of funds to implement the activity. IN00782040 ►Component 3.3: DWIR Re-organization and Operations Plan (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- No Yes Date 04-Dec-2014 -- 10-Dec-2019 31-Mar-2022 Status: Hamburg Port Consulting was selected as the consultancy firm for the preparation of the RMOP Comments: and has started per November 2019. Component 4. Contingent Emergency Response IN00782031 ►Goods procured and distributed as outlined in the CERIP (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Sep-2015 16-Nov-2017 16-Nov-2017 31-Mar-2022 12/21/2019 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P146482 IDA-55590 Effective USD 100.00 100.00 0.00 36.33 57.14 39% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P146482 IDA-55590 Effective 09-Dec-2014 03-Apr-2015 10-Jun-2015 30-Sep-2020 30-Sep-2020 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History Level 1 Approved on 19-Jun-2016 ,Level 2 Approved on 09-Dec-2019 Related Project(s) 12/21/2019 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project (P146482) P173265-Additional Financing - Ayeyarwady Integrated River Basin Management Project 12/21/2019 Page 9 of 9