Report No. 6224-CRG Antigua and Barbuda Updating Economic Memorandum November 26, 1986 I atin Anmorica and the Carihbean Regional (Ofi(e FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution andl may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise he disclosed without 'World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit East Caribbean Dollar Since its creation in 1965, the East Caribbean dollar was tied to sterling at the rate of 1.00 - EC$4.&. In July 1976 the link with sterling was broken and tne East Caribbean dollar was aligned with the US dollar at the rate of US$1.00 = EC$2.70. Since July 1976 EC$1.00 = US$0.37 or US$1.00 = EC$2.70 FOR OFFICLAL USE ONLY PREFACE AND ABSTRACT This report represents a review of recent economic developments in Antigua and Barbuda. A more detailed analysis of development issues and performance is contained in a report entitled 'Antigua and Barbuda Economic Memorandum" (Report No. 5297-CRG, January 3, 1985). The economy of Antigua and Barbuda has performed very well over the past three years, with economic growth averaging in excess of 6% per annum from 1983 to 1985. This has been due to very robust growth in tourism arrivals, which is expected to continue, albeit at a somewhat slower pace, throughout the rest of this decade. The Government's fiscal performance has improved in 1984 and 1985, and revenue measures introduced in late 1985 and early 1986, indicate that this improvement in revenue collection should continue. Despite this, however, a fiscal crisis is looming from 1987 on due to the very large increase in external debt (an additional US$110.0 million) that has been committed to since mld-1985. All of this new debt is on commercial terms, and has been contracted to finance four projects; the Deep Bay Hotel, a water desalination and power plant, airport runway resurfacing and a telephone exchange expansion. While Government has undertaken a variety of sector policy reforms which should improve sector performance, considerable uncertainty surrounds Government's future fiscal management. Even with strong overall economic growth performance over the next five years, to avoid a further buildup in arrears of external debt service obligations, the Government will need (i) to seek further revenue raising measures and raise utility tariffs, (ii) to continue a stringent program of current expenditure control, (iii) to continue an active program of divestiture of Government assets in the tourism and other sectors, (iv) to continue efforts to formally reschedule past external debt obligations and, (v) to avoid further addition to external debt on commercial terms until it has become clear that existing debt service obligations can be met. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their ofcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. This economic update is based upon the work of an IBRD mission to Antigua and ' rbuda in February/March 1986, led by Mr. R. J. Robinson. This mission consisted of Ms. J. Curry (consultant), Mr. D. Davis (consultant), Mr. G. Byam (IARM), Mr. C. Johnson (CDB) and Ms. M. Singhe (UNDP, Barbados). Assistance was also given to the mission by Mr. E. Murphy and Ms. H. Corbin of the Economic Affairs Secretariat of the OECS. ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA TABLE OF CONTENTS Page COUNTRY DATA SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ..................... - iii I. Recent Economic Developmentso. ............ .......... I II. Public Sector Finances and Issues.................... 2 III. Balance of Payments.................................. 5 IV. Sector Policy Issues .... . 5 V. Public Sector Investment Program..................... 9 VI. Technical Assistance Program......................... 10 VII. Medium Term Policies and Prospects................... 11 -.EX I: Public Investment and Technical Assistance Programs... 16 ANNEX II: Macroeconomic Projections............................ 25 STATISTICAL APPENDIX **......................................... 28 Pego I of 2 peg9s iOtJNTRY DATA - ANTIQUA AND BAR8UA AREA POPUJLATION DENSITY 442 kh2 79,SOO tend 1984) 179 par kin2 Anaval Rete of Growth$ 1.31 (from 1973 to 1983) 288 per kl2 of arable iland POPULATION CHARACTERISTICS (1983) NEALTI 19S76 Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000) 23.8 Populatlon per physician 2746 Crude Doath Rate (per 1,000) S.D Population per hospltal bed 137 Infant Mortality (per 1,000 live bIrths) 22.7 INCOlE DISTRIBUTION DISTRIBUTION OF LAND Ov4ERSH IP S of natlonaj Incomr, highest quintil. .. S owned by top 10 of owners lowest qulntlIx .. S owned by bottom 105 of ownern ACCESS TO PIPEO WATER (1970) ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY s of population - urban 33.2 X of population - urban - rural 14.0 - rural NUTRITION (1977) EDUCATION Calorie Intake as I of requireinants 86.1 Adult lltsrecy rats I 90.0 (1970) Per capita protein Intake (grams/day) 58.3 Primary school enrollinnt S 80.0 (1977) GNP PER CAPITA In 1985t U6S2030 C/ 6ROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1985 (prel.) ANNUAL RATE OF GROWtTH (1, constant prices) US, wi. S 19dO'84 1985 OMiP at Market Prices 185.3 100.0 4.7 6.7 Gross Domstic Investuint 45.7 24.7 13.0 23.0 tgoss National savings 18.7 10.1 12.0 -10.1 Current Account Balance -11.4 -6.2 Exports of Goodes NFS 123.9 66.9 5.3 8.5 lmports of Goode, NFS 147.5 79.6 2.4 11.9 tIPU!T IN 1984 value Added US$ win. S Agrlculture 6.5 4.7 inesutry 21.7 IS.9 Servlces 108.6 79.4 Total 136.8 100.0 GtEN}Nt FINANCE Coafol deftd Piut Ile Suetor Centre I GoVsr,nt (EC mnililon) Sof Gtl (EKsimlilIn) Sof OP 1994 195 19d4 1985 1984 1985 1S84 19S5 Current Rfca,gts 115.6 134.5 26.7 27.6 102.2 118.6 23.5 24.4 Current Evondlturo 107.3 128.9 24.7 26.5 105.4 107.6 24.3 22.1 Current Surplus 19.8 IS.1 4.6 3.1 -3.2 -463 -0.7 -1.3 C pital ExpandlItares 27.0 2861 6.2 S.8 14.1 14.0 3.2 2.9 Exteatl Flnane (fnet) S.9 21.9 1.4 4.5 -0.1 -2.7 - -0.6 ef Atlas fttlndology ..not sea iabie . not applable Pep 2 of 2 page. WJAY DATA - rTIJA NI) W lA OEtC, CEII and PRICES 1980 1981 1962 1983 1984 1985 (EC MillIon) Bank Credit to PublIc Sector 34.1 34.4 45.5 52.0 $30.5 36.1 anO Credit t Privat. Sector 102.1 133.7 148.S 183.9 211.7 2S8.3 (Prcentges or IrAdx Nuter.) Liabl I ltlc to PriVte Sectott dt of aoW 35.7 41.6 42.2 47.3 48.7 53.1 Reatil Price Index (1969 * 103) 400.4 42S.5 436.6 452.3 469.4 459.8 AjIe pernentege chnoge Io$ General Price Index 18.1 7.0 4.1 3.6 3.8 -2.0 8.01* CredIt to Public Sector . 0.9 32.3 14.3 -41.4 18.4 Bank Credit to Privete Sector . 30.2 11.3 23.6 15.1 22.0 8LAlN OF PANITES 1961 192 1983 1984 19S5 IPrel.) MIl 1one US$) Expott of Goodcl WS 91.9 92.2 92.0 114.2 123.9 Ioporte of Good, NFS V17.8 139.4 108.9 151.6 147.5 Reeourc Gap -45.9 -47.2 -16.9 -17.6 -23.6 Factor Payaate Caet) -1.9 -3.2 -1.3 2.1 -2.8 let frensfers 7.8 8.7 10.6 12.5 15.0 salanc on Current Acont -40.0- -41.7 -7.6 -3.0 -11.4 £1XTe19 ODET OE. 1R 31, 1945 US$ Mmi PrIvef. Cepital 22.0 20.2 8.7 5.4 4.1 PublIc debt, ln¢l. gtraanted 64.9 Public CepItal (not) 14.6 15.3.4 -7.5 -4.0 6.8 Nur-garnteed Privte Debt Tobal Ottanding & Olabured . Coamrecal Banks 0.3 8.6 -6.8 - 4.9 OEMT SEIWIDE RATIO for ISS an Public debt. Ici. guaranted 8.9 Non-9uerented Privet. Oebt .. Total Outstaed,: & Disburaed Af OF ixi/lE 18R1 EI130IMO, DEEER 198S: Since M 1976 US$1.00 * ec.70 E01l.00 * US9.37 Undislbursed Outstonding In¢l. Unoditbured O/ Retlo of Debt Service to Expeta of Goode and Nn-Factor Servlnot. not e.allablo not appl lceb SUMMARY AND CONCWJSIONS i. The economy of Antigua and Barbuda has performed strongly over the past three years, with average annual growth in excess of 6%. This growth has been due to the very :obust performance of the tourism sector, with stopover visitors in 1985 over 50% higher than that achieved in 1982. The performance of other secto,s of the economy has been more variable, with agriculture exhibiting good growth in 1985, following the drought of 1984 and 1983. Manufacturing, on the other hand, has stagnated, primarily due to nontinuing trade difficulties within Caricom. Price inflation continues to moderate, due to the slower pace of price rise for imported goods. The rate of price increase in 1985, on a year round average, was 0.9/.. To a large extent, there has been moderation in the pace of wage increases; however, awards in 1984 and 1985 were all substantially above the pace of consumer price increase. ii. In addition to this good overall economic performance, the Government has made progress in improving its fiscal situation, with consolidated public sector savings of 4.6X and 3.1% of GDP in 1984 and 1985. In large measure this has been due to a fiscal austerity program that has successfully constrained the growth in current expenditures and more effective revenue collection efforts. These efforts, however, were not sufficient to forestall a further buildup of domestic and external arrears. In the latter case these stood at US$27.8 million (US$16.9 million principal and US$10.9 million interest) at the end of 1985. The Government has sought to address this arrears problem through a refinancing arrangement that would allow for a retirement of much of the Government's external obligations; discussions are still proceeding. A speedy resolution of the issue is expected. To further improve the fiscal situation, the Government introduced a variety of revenue raising measures in the latter part of 1985 and early 1986. As a result of these increases, and the expected good economic performeince in 1986, public sector savings are expected to increase to about 5.6/. of GOP in 1986. iii. The longer term fiscal framework, however, is subject to considerable uncertainty, due to very large external debt commitments that the Government has entered into since mid-1985 to undertake four major projects. Th.re has been a substantial increase in the public sector investment program for 1986-1988, dominated by'the Deep Bay tiotel, a Desalination/Power Plant, runway resurfacing of the main airport and expansion of the telephone system. These programs total EC$440.7 million (US$163.2 million) over the three year period, which by the end of 1988 will have intcreased Government's external debt to US$141.1 million, or 63% of GDP. The vast majority of this debt has been contracted on commercial terms, with the result that the debt service burden, in respect to likely fiscal resources, will be onerous (48.4% of Government revenues). The severity of this debt service requirement upon overall fiscal performance will depend, to some extent, upon the future growth of the overall economy. However, evon if the economy averages positive real growth in excess of 5.0% per annum for the next five years, there is a looming cumulative fiscal gap of about EC$287.2 million (US$106.4 million) for the - ii - period 1986 to 1991, excluding any elimination of already accumulated past debt service arrears, and assuming that 50Z of public sector investment is funded from external sources tor the period 1989 to 1991. iv. While there are many uncertainties and imponderables (the liKely future growth path, the likely size of the annual lease payment for the Deep bay hotel when completed, and the possihle sale of Government assets such as the Halcyon Cove Hotel are notable examples), the Government's short- to medium-term fiscal situation is far from secure. While an even stronger overall growth performance over the next five years would reduce the size of the identified cumulative tiscal gap, it is unlikely that a further buildup of arrears will be avoided unless additional fiscal revenue raising and expenditure cutting measures are introduced, together with a rescheduling of some external obligations. The Government has obtained the assistance of an external merchault bank, and is presently seeking a consolidation and rescheduling. The Government expects this to be concluded by December 1986. v. It does not appear that the looming fiscal gap is concomittantly reflected in a widening external gap, with the possible exception of 1986 when large amortization payments are due. As a result of increased tourism revenues, the current account has improved continually since 1982, recording a deficit of US$11.4 million (-6.3% of GOP) in 1985. The country's terms of trade have improved over the past three years, and this trend is expected to continue in the short- to medium-term. Merchandise exports have remained static since 1983, however, the outlook for 1986 is more promising due to increased exports of agricultural products and expected growth in enclave garment production. vi. The tourism sector is experiencing a boom period with the result that annual occupancy rates have increased from 58.4% in 1981 to 71.5% in 1985. Given the high seasonality inherent in Antiguan tourism, the larger, more efficient hotels must be close to full occupancy in the winter season. As a result, accommodation capacity could be a constraint on future traffic growth. Considerable additional hotel investment, however, is now underway or planned. One of these developments is the Government's Deep bay hotel project of 350 rooms which is scheduled for completion by mid-1987. Given this expansion, it is expected that occupancy rates could fall from 1988 out to 199U, and in consequence caution should be exercised on new hotel construction unless it can be shown to be financially viable at a bU% room occupancy rate. Future growth of stopover visitors depends crucially upon the future growth of airline seat capacity into Antigua and Barbuda. A rapid increase in this capacity, coupled with increased marketing effort by the airlines could forestall a decline in island wide hotel occupancy rates. vii. The agricultural sector achieved significant positive growth in 1985, following five years of declining or stagnant output. This has been due partly to the end of the eavere drought in 1984, but also the gradual introduction of new crops (cotton and vegetables) and improvements in domestic and external marketing arrangements. A major effort is being - iii - made, with external donor assistance, to improve tte country's livestock industry, which includes decontrol of pricing and institution of more effective grading systems. The land tenure problems identified in previous economic memoranda are being addressed. The Government has been contemplating an external tariff on imported beef to encourage the local production of high quality beef. Given the already high food prices in the tourism sector, caution should be exercised in implementing such an import substituticn policy. The most disappointing sector has been manufacturing, which has suffered from the trade problems in Caricom. ln the early part of 1986, there was an increase in inquiries from potential enclave manufacturers and some existing manufacturers have had some success in extra-regional markets. lo Recent Economic Developments 1. Over the past three years, the economy of Antigua and Barbuda has performed strongly, with real growth in excess of b% per annum. The impetus for this growth has been the very robust performance of the tourism sector, with stopover visitors increasing by 16.2X, 25.2X and 7.bX in 1983, 1984 and 1985 respectively. Several factors have contributed to this tourism growth. These include the good performance of the US economy, the additioa of new facilities (the St.James Club, for example) and increased marketing by operators, togethter with the promotion of special events (Antigua International Sailing Week). As a result of this strong performance, many existing operators plan to increase capacit-y, which, together with the construction of the Deep bay hotel project, should provide a further stimulus to the economy in the immediate future. 2. The performance of other areas of the economy has been more variable. Agriculture has rebounded well from the drought of 1984, as a result of increased development of cotton and winter vegetables by local farmers and foreign investors. Manufacturing, on the other hand, has stagnated, primarily due to trade difficulties within Caricom, particularly Trinidad and Tobago. The rate of inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has continued to moderate, particularly in the latter part of 1985, due to the moderation of intlation in the US (from which most imported goods are drawn) and falling oil prices. The rate of price increase in 1985, on a year round average, was U.9Z. In general, there has been some mDderation in the pace of wage increase in 1984 and 1985, although awards granted in union agreements in 1984 were all substantially above the pace of consumer price increase. Within these agreements, the range for 1985 and 198b was from 4X to IOX. For the Central Government, the last wage adjustment was effective from September 1984, with an average increase of 12.5x. A new contract is due in September 19b7. Table 1: Selected Economic Indicators (X changes) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 GWP factor cost (1977 prices) 8.0 3.9 -1.3 b.4 b.5 6.7 Agriculture - -10.8 -5.7 -0.9 -10.3 13.5 Constructicn 24.6 9.9 -38.1 -7.7 4.6 13.3 Stopover tourists -1.6 -2.2 1.7 lb.2 25.2 7.8 Exports of Goods NFS 53.1a/ -3.3 U.3 -U.2 24.1 5.5 Imports of Goods NFS 41.6a/ 9.2 1.2 -21.9 21.U 11.9 Electricity Sales (kwh) 1b.67 7.2 9.2 11.4 j.2 11.1 Private Consumption 18.7 7.3 11.3 3.3 -0.3 17.7 CkI (period average) 19.2 11.5 4.2 z.3 3.9 U.9 a/ This represents the first full year of shipments from the oil refinery and transhipment facility. - 2 - lle Public Sector Finances and Issues 3. Despite the economy's generally robust performance, the Central Government has encountered considerable fiscal difficulty, particularly from 1980 to 1983. This difficulty reflects sharp increases in the wage bill (September 19b1), large capital expenditures financed primarily on commercial terms, with the consequent increase in short term debt service obligations. As a result of these unfavorable fiscal developments, there has been a marked buildup of arrears in payments, especially for external obligations and amounts due to the Social Security Scheme, the Medical Benefits Scheme and the Antigua Public Utility Authority. The buildup of external arrears has led to a decline in the flows of concessionary financing, and a consequent decline in public capital expendituke. 4. In 1984 and 1965, there was an improvement in overall fiscal performance, with a consolidated public saving performance of 4.b% and 3.14 of GUDP respectively. Much of this improvement stemmed from the continued improvement in overall economic performance due to the growth in tourist visitors. This improvement was reflecte" in increases in corporate taxes, consumption taxes, import duties and hotel and guest taxes. To a large extent, the Central Government has constrained the growth in current expenditures, particularly in 1984. A freeze on public sector hiring has been in effect since 1964 and more stringent budget control and monitoring procedures have been introduced. These efforts, however, have not been sufficient to forestall a further buildup of domestic and external Table 2: Public Sector Performance (% of GDP m.p.) 1980 1981 19b2 1983 1984 1985 Current Account balance 1.3 2.4 0.6 0.9 4.6 3.1 Gen. Government a/ -1. . -0.7 -0.5 1.9 1.1 of which, Cen. Govt. -4.6 -3., -3.7 -3.2 -0.7 -1.3 Pub. Enterprises 2.3 2.2 1.3 1.4 z.7 2.0 Current Revenue (Cen. Gov.) 22.2 24.7 26.6 22.6 23.5 24.4 Tax 16.5 18.7 19.4 18.1 19.1 . 1.2 Non-tax 5,7 t.0 7.1 4.5 7.4 4.2 Current Expen. (Ceu. Gov.) 2b.8 28.2 30.3 25.7 24.3 25.7 Wages 11.6 11.0 12.3 11.3 11.1 [0,3 Interest 4.6 5.2 7.3 4.9 2.2 2.7 Capital Expenditure (all public sector) 9.1 16.2 13.6 b.9 6.0 8.9 Memo Item Marginal Tax Rate b/ 17.3 38.0 27.5 5.2 2b.8 30.0 Tax buoyancy c/ 104.5 203.2 141.0 28.7 140.3 148.5 a/ Includes Social Security and Medical benefits. b/ Change in tax revenue divided by change in GDP x 100. c/ Marginal tax rate divided by the tax/GDP ratio x 100. - 3 - arrears. These external arrears increased by US$9.2 million in 1985 (UbSS4.3 million in interest and USS*4.9 million in due principal payments). With regard to domestic arrears, contribution arrears to the Social Security and Medical benefits increased by EC*3.5 million and EC42.b million respectively. With regard to the Antigua Public Utility Authority (APUA), there is a dispute with the Ministry of Finance as to what the monthly utility charges should be, and discussions are proceeding to reduce the arrears accumulation of ECU7.2 million. 5. To bring about further improvements in the Central Government's fiscal positior, a number of revenue raising measures were introduced in the latter part of 1965 and early '9bb. A customs services tax of 2.57 on all imports, excluding capital gocds of a value in excess ot SC41UU,UOO, has been introduced (Act 6 of 1966); a new property tax act became effective from the 1st March, 1986, and the Stamp Amendment Act 19d6 has introduced a 3X tax on loans by local banks to non-residents. Furthermore, the Kevenue (Miscellaneous Provisions) Act of 1985 has raised a variety of license fees and annual charges, and the powers of the tax collection authorities have been increased to allow a speedier sequestation of property and increased the penalties for non-payment. In addition the Government is seeking to improve the Property Tax System, with a revisei valuation system presently being implemented. As a result of these increases, and the expectations of good economic performance in 19db, the l986 budget projects a substantial increase in revenue from BC§$1b.6 million in 1965 to LC§156.9 million in 79d6 (an increase of 34x). Current expenditure is also expected to rise, but at a slower pace (1.5X), witn the result that a positive current account balance of BC§12.2 million is budgeted. Whether the expected signiticant rise in current revenues is fully realized remains to be seen. Nevertheless the measures introduced are appropriate, which, together with continued vigilance on current expenditures, should better the fiscal performance of 19db. b. To this generally positive outlook, however, considerable fiscal uncertainty remains due to the very large increase in public sector external debt that has been committed to since mid-19d5. This increase is external debt is to be utilized for four major projects. These are listed below. (i) A desalination/power plant turnkey project is underway, with financing of US$43.2 million provided by 'the equipment suppliers and guaranteed by the Japanese Export Import bank (US"17.7 million bears interest of 14X, to be amortized by the end of 19b8 and the remainder at d%, to be amortized over 1U years). Iz is not known whether a teasibility study was undertaken to ascertain whether this project is the most cost effective solution to improving Antigua's water supply. based on a cabinet submission showing AFUA financial projections, APUA believes it will be able to service these obligations, provided the Central Government pays all utility charges. Water tariffs can be periodically adjusted (it is planned by APUA for a charge of BC*17*U per l,OUU gallons for domestic users and EC$40.0 per 1,000 gallons for commercial users in 1987; the rates as of December 19M4 are EC412.0 and EC$2J.0 respectively). Cabicaet agreement or approval tor these rate adjustments will be needed, however, and as noted above, there has, as yet, been no agreement be. -ien APUA and the Ministry of Finance as to the appropriate taritfs tor eleetricity and water usage. The Government provision in the 1986 budget for APUA charges is EC§3.U million, but APUA estimates tnese charges will be between LC47.U to 8(Ubd.0 -4- million. APUA has generated a surplus on operations every year since 1980, however, this result does not include debt service on past borrowings for equipment. Further, non-payment of utility charges by the Central Government has created liquidity difficulties for the Authority. (ii) As of July 1985, construction has started on the Deep Bay Hotel project, for which the Government has borrowed approximately US"46.U million from a commercial bank syndicate, guaranteed by the Italian Export Credit Agency (Libor plus 2.5%, with two years' grace and a six year amortization period). The Government plans to meet the debt service from the lease of the 35U room hotel to an operator. Preliminary analysis by the mission based on a variety of tourist industry norms, suggests that full debt service coverage by the likely lease payment will be difficult and recourse to consolidated Central Government's revenues will be necessary. To meet this possibility, the Government might seek to refinance the loan, once the construction is completed with a longer debt cumulat4zation period. This would improve the possibility that future lease payments would cover the debt service. (iii) During 198b, the runway at the airport is to be resurfaced, together with associated engineering works. This project is financed by a loan from a French commercial bank for US11.1 million, repayable over seven years, with two years' grace and bearing an interest rate of I1.29 during amortization. Debt service tor this loan will come from Central Government consolidated revenues. (iv) A major telecommunications improvement is underway, with a US41U.0 million loan from the supplier's financing arm, at Libor plus Z.54 with a "balloon" principal repayment in 1996. Servicing of this obligation should be drawn from future telephone charges of the telephone division of APUA. '. iy mid-1987, when all these projects are completed, together with a small suppliers credit for US4U.5 million for electricity generators, the Government's external debt will have increased by approximately US110.0 million, to about 79% of GDV, compared to 36Z of GDP at the end of 1985(not including accumulated arrears). Most of this additional debt is on commercial terms, and, in some cases has a very short repayment period. Furthermore, despite the steady improvement in the Government's fiscal performance in 1944 and 1983, debt service on already existing debt has not been sufficient to avoid a further accumulation of arrears, which totalled US$27.8 million by the end of 1985. In order to solve the present arrears problems, the Government has entered into tentative discussions with external and domestic commercial banks for a loan of US4100.0 million, to be used to retire past obligations. This had not been finalized at the time of the mission. Government's efforts to solve the arrears problem, however, are to be commended and a speedy resolution of the issue is hoped for. Government external debt service obligations in 1965 were US$11.0 million, equivalent to 8.9% of the exports of goods and services, or 2U.bX of General Government revenues and public enterprise surpluses. This debt service obligation will increase substantially, particularly between 1987 to 1991, and the Government's ability to avoid a further accumulation of arrears will depend both upon the future performance of the economy and the success of the revenue enhancement and expenditure curtailment programs introduced in 1985 and early 1986. As has been shown in the past, the - tourist sector, and hence, the economy, has been subject to considerable short-term volatility and variabilty. While the present short-term outlook for tourism in the Caribbean is good, it behooves the Government to adopt a conservative fiscal policy that will continue to restrain the growth in current expenditures and seek additional sources of revenue. I1I. balance of Payments 8. In keeping with the robust growth of the economy over the past three years, the current acount of the balance of payments has improved since 1982, recording a deticit of US~b11.4 million (-b.39 of GOP) in 1985, compared to US441.7 million (-32% of GUP) in 1982. Merchandise imports declined significantly in 1983, following completion of certain capital projects and lower public and private investment. As investment accelerated in 1984 and 1985, and with the increased tourism activity in 1985, imports have again increased (5.8X higher than 1982). Given the growth in real income over this period, however, this import growth is lower than might be expected and may indicate two phenomena. First, that the country'c terms of trade continues to improve, with the result that the nominal growth in imports understates the physical volumes, when compared to the growth in nominal GOP. Second, that domestic linkages with the tourism sector may have increased. Preliminary discussions and observations indicate that the local agricultural sector has improved its sales of vegetables and fruits to the hotel sector in 1985 as output improved following the drought of 1984. 9. Merchandise exports have remained static (declining in real terms) since 1983 due to the curtailment of oil refining activity in Antigua and the trade difficulties encountered within the Caricom region. Many manufacturers in the country are seeKing extra-regional markets, but progress has been slow. The outlook for 198b may be more promising, with increased exports of winter vegetables, cotton and garments. Receipts from tourism, however, have grown dramatically, from US49.5 million in 19b2 to US41U1.6 million in 1985 (an increase of IU5.JA). This increase is due to both an increase in the number of visitors and an increase in average daily expenditures and average length of stay. IV. hector Policy Issues 10. Tourism. The tourist sector is the most important in the economy, employing an estimated 2,5UU persons in hotels and another 1,70U in activities providing direct services for tourists, such as local transport, retail sales, sports and leisure, restaurants and entertainment. Furthermore, as the sector is presently undergoing a substantial expansion in caracity, it is estimated that 1,20U construction and equipment workers will be employed over the next five years. The sector has grown steadily over the past five years, with stopover air arrivals, the most important category, increasing from 84,724 in 1961 to 139,726 in 1985, an average annual growth rate of 9.7X. The bulk of this increase took place in 1983 and 1984 so that by 1985 the growth rate declined to 7.8X, possibly constrained by the available supply of accommodations, particularly during the nigh season (December 15 to 4pril 15). The number of cruise passengers visiting the country has also rebounded in 1986, and cruise ship cails scheduled for 198b suggest that the 1961 record traffic level may be exceeded. The bulk of visitors are from the United States (52.2/) and the US has shown the most dynamic - 6 - growth, doubling from 32,162 to b4,296 between 1961 and 19b4 and increasing a further 1i.79 to 73,065 in 198J. howeve , Antigua and Barbuda tourist markets are somewhat more diversified than for other destinations in the region and marketing policy is not neglecting Europe. This market is tapped via air services through London, but in 19b5 direct service was introduced to Zurich and Frankfurt which should further enhance market potential. 11. The supply of rooms changed little between 1%li and 19b., numbering 1,994 and Z,lOU respectively, with the result that since traftic has increased rapidly since .9b3, occupancy rates have increased from 55.4. in that year to 71.5Z in the latter year. Given the high seasonality inherent in Antiguan tourism, the larger, more efficient hotels, must have been achieving close to full occupancy during the past winter season. Thus, accommodation capacity could have become a constraint on future tratfic growth. However, consideraole additional hotel investment is now underway or planned. Much of this additional capacity cannot be expected to be available before the 19b7/o8 winter season, with some planned extensions to existing hotels available for the 19bb/87 season, with tne result that if stayover visitor growth continues at the pace ot the past three years, annual occupancy rates could again rise in 19d6. From 1967 onwards (with a planned addition ot a further 774 rooms in this year) occupancy rates could fall quite dramatically between 19d6 to 1990. Mission estimates suggest, therefore, that caution should be exercised on new hotel projects unless they can be shown to be financially viable at a bUX room occupancy rate. Alternatively, some of the larger hotel projects, not yet underway, could be delayed a few years. Much depends upon the rate of increase of airline seat capacity to the country. if this expands rapidly, together with increased airline promotional efforts, a decline in island wide occupancy rates could be forestalled. Table 3: Commercial Accommodations by Number ot Kooms Type lybi 19b2 19b3j 194 19bS Hotels 1,684 1,7u2 i,olU 1,bb4 1,7ZU Apartments lbb Z1b 2zu Z4Z 2b0 Guest Houses 142 loo 139 12b 1__o TOTAL 1,194 L,0b6 1,9b9 Z,U52 Z,lbb Occupancy Rates (4) WO.6 45,0 55.4 b7.9 71.5 Source: antigua Department of Tourism and Mission estimates. 12. The Government's role in the tourist sector is multifaceted. Apart from the usual regulatory and promotional functions, it is also Involved in hotel investment. In 19o4, it sold the Halycon Reef Hotel tor US>3.0 million to the bt. James Club and it owns the 153 room halcyon Cove hlotel and Casino, which is leased to an operator for Zb years. Tne lease payments have not been sufficient to cover the necessary debt service. Negotiations are In an advanced stage to sell the hotel to the present operators, who hope to add an additional 75 rooms, which would improve the hotel's viability. As noted previously, the Government is undertaKing - 7 - another major hotel development at Deep bay. This project consists ot 3JL rooms, comprising 274 rooms in two nine-tloor blocks and 19 villas of tour rooms each, together with four restaurants, a casino and extensive leisure and sports facilities. It is due for completion by mid-1987; at the time of the mission an operator had not been selected. This selection sthould not be delayed, as an operator needs to provide inputs into the detailed finishes in accordance with their own management requirements and practices. 13. Another major project on which the Government wishes to embark is a redevelopment of the main, downtown part of the capital city of St. Johns. This plan is intended to provide shopping, restaurant and entertainment facilities for tourists and also to enhance amenities utilized by the local population. The St. Johns Development Corporation was established in February 1986 and is to be responsible for overall development. A variety of proposals have been made for this urban redevelopment, including the relocation of residents, land reclamation, a new road network and construction of an entirely new section of the city. Tentative plans suggest that works will be completed over a ten year period, with an estimated cost, in current dollars, of EC$146.0 millioLn. 14. With regard to overall administration, the Department of Tourism has now been tully absorbed into the Ministry of Tourism so that the developmental, regulatory and promotional activities may be better coordinated. This Ministry wishes to establish a statistical and research unit and is seeking technical assistance in this regard. In the 19b6 budget, it was reiterated that, of the bi tax on hotel bills, IA/ would be allocated to the Ministry of Tourism for marketing promotion. 15. Agriculture. This sector achieved significant positive growth in 19b5, following tive years of declining or stagnant output. This was due to the end of the severe drought in 1984, and the gradual introduction of new crops (vegetables, cotton) and improvement in domestic and external marketing arrangements. Fruit and vegetable output continued to improve, with the Central Marketing Corporation developing an export market in Miami for okra, peppers and cucumbers. Initial quality grading problems appear to have been overcome, although there is a need for further cold storage facilities. A USAID technical assistance program providing extension services on irrigation and production of vegetables appears to have been quite effective. Further, in 1965, a foreign investor has established an operation employing 70 persons, on 2UU acres (zuchini, string beans, cherry tomatoes, melons) for shipment to Europe. This investor has plans for further expansion. 16. As part of the general diversification in the utilization of sugarcane lands, the cultivation of sea island cotton has progressed well, with 350 acres under production in 19b5/bb. All output is sold to Japan and plans are afoot to increase acreage up to 1,000 within the next two years. A problem remains, however, in tinding sufticient labor for harvesting. With regard to livestock, a number of developments are under way to address obstacles outlined in the previous economic memorandum. A paper has been submitted to Cabinet covering marketing arrangements and pricing policy, in which the recommendation is for price decontrol and institution of more eftective grading systems. A recent study has shown that the local cost of production of high quality beef is between 3UZ to 4UV higher than the c.i.f. price for imported beef. As a result, the Government is considering the imposition of an equivalent tariff in order to encourage the local production of high quality beef. Given the already high food prices in the tourism sector, caution should be exercised in this import substitution policy. The Government has alleged that beef is often "dumped" in Antigua, and other parts of the Caribbean, when extra-regional imports have failed to gain entry into the US market due to failure to meet certain FDA standards. To the extent that this is prevalent, some sort of anti-dumping policy may be appropriate. 17, The land tenure problem raised in previous economic memoranda is being addressed, with the format for four standardized leases completed with final Cabinet decision pending. The granting of leases will be within the Ministry of Agriculture, which should reduce administrative delays. Nevertheless, the Lands Division needs further strengthening. A study on land use and capability has been completed, with the result that information is now available for proper zoning. An agricultural census and production study, undertaken by an OAS consultant, should be available soon. Also a water resource study tor agricultural use has been completed, and a cost of production and small livestock study are under way. on the institutional side, a planning unit has been approved by Cabinet. kiowever, technical assistance is needed in the form of planners, project and extension officers. The most disappointing area of performance has been in fisheries, with the Antigua Fisheries no longer eftectively operational. A fisheries development plan has been completed by FAU. tiowever, a fisheries officer is needed to implement the plan. A shrimp farm has started, with foreign and domestic investment, and the first harvest was drawn in December 1985. 18. Manutacturiag. The light manufacturing sector composed of garment, furniture, appliance and electronic production and assembly has stagnated over the last three years, due primarily to trade problems witi.in Caricom and the import licensing system introduced in Trinidad and Tobago. In the early part of l986, there has been an increase in inquiries from potential enclave manufacturers, and some existing manufacturers have had some success in extra-regional markets, particularly in furniture and electronics. The Government is seeking to sell some of the factories in the industrial park at Coolidge to the present tenants, by which it is hoped arrears owing to CDb may be eliminated. This approach is appropriate insofar as it will make available funds for further factory shell construction. Government institutional support to the development of the sector needs strengthening, which could be achieved by a consolidation of appropriate promotion and service tunctions into a single industrial development unit. There is a full range of investment incentives available, in commuon with other uECS countries, including a scheme tor wage subsidization during an initial three month training period. The small domestic market size inhibits development of the sector and as a result, enclave manufacturing for the export market offers the greatest opportunities for expansion. In this context, appropriate foreign investment programs will be crucial for further development. - 9 - V. Public Sector Investment Program 19. The public sector investment program tor 1Ybb-196b is dominated by four projects (Deep bay hotel, Desalination/Power Plant, Runway Resurfacing and Telephone Expansion), totaling EC$440.7 million over the three year period, most of it occurring in 19bb and 19b7 (EC§166.2 and EC$216.1 respectively). Despite the turnkey nature of these large projects, the economy should reflect this major stimulus over the next three years, although there is a significant projected decline in public investment in 1988. In part, this reflects the generally weak institutional capability of the Government in project identification and development. The responsibilities of the Planning Unit in the Ministry of Economic Planning are not clearly defined and it is not equipped to exercise a lead role in preparation and monitoring of projects in the PSIP. In most instances, little economic impact or least cost alternative analysis is undertaken, with the result that some projects are of limited or marginal economic and financial viability. Too often, individual Ministries, or their respective public enterprises, develop projects and seek financing (mostly on commercial terms) outside of any significant coordination with other relevant sections of the Government, such as the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development. There is need for a more coordinated project development and monitoring system that would allow for a regular review of progress of the PSI? and liaison with the public debt monitoring unit created in the Ministry of Finance. Establishment of such a monitoring system should improve the pace of implementation of projects, particularly when specific policy actions are needed by cabinet. 20 Public sector capital expenditure increased in 19b5 to b.9% of GDP, reversing the declining trend in public investment that had been exhibited since 1982. all of this increase in 1965, however, may be accounted for by preliminary work on the Deep Bay Hotel project and the land purchases associated with it. Once this project is subtracted, 1905 capital expenditures continued tne decline in real terms, and to a large extent this was manifested in further deterioration of the supporting infrastructure, particularly roads and utility services. To a large extent, the PSIP for 19bb-8b is designed to address these issues and forestall any further deterioration and rehabilitate that already in existence. Given that a large proportion of the public sector investment program is for projects in the utilities sector, it is expected that the recurrent cost implications for the Central Government will be minimized. however, as noted in previous sections of this report, the debt service implications are much more problematic. 21. it is planned to spend ECA242.2 million, or 54.9X of the program on economic Infrastructure. Over half of this is directed at increasing the supply and improving the 'distribution of water in the country. The USAID-financed water supply expansion project is expected to end in l9bb, and involved rehabilitation and development of groundwater sources, transmission, storage and treatment facilities and institutional development of APUA. The Government's major policy with respect to water, as manifested by the desalination plant project, is on the development of new sources as opposed to the rehabilitation of existing sources. As noted previously in the text, it is nct clear that the approach adopted - 10 - represents the least cost, most etficient alternative. The other main area of infrastructural development is in the transportation sector. Road reconstruction is being implemented with the support of the European Development Fund and the United Kingdom. Phase I entails the rehabilitation of 1 miles of main roads radiating trom St. Johns. The main airport runway is to, be resurfaced, together with an extension of the parking apron and an engineering study for a new taxiway. The country's telephone system is undergoing expansion and modernization, utilizing commercial funding, and is scheduled for completion in 1986. Table 4: Summary of Public Sector Investment Program by Sector 1986-1988 Amount Directly Productive Projects 179,629 4U.8 Agriculture 14,918 3.4 Manufacturing 2,745 0.6 Tourism 161,966 36.8 Economic Infrastructure 242,165 54.9 Transportation 71,085 1b.1 Energy 1Z,771 2.9 Communications 3U,200 .9 Water and Sewerage 125,30U 28.4 Other Economic Services 2,809 U.6 Social Infrastructure I?,6b9 4.'. Health and Community Services 1,298 0.3 Education 5,347 1.2 dousing 6,600 1.5 Public Safety 3,464 0.8 Other 2,260 0 5 TOTAIL 440,7b3 10O.U 22. In the category of directly productive projects, the tourist sector predominates due to the Deep bay hotel project. This project is due for completior. in mid-1987. In agriculture, livestock development remains the main focus. The livestock development project financed by the European Development Fund is expected to begin in 1987. The project has been delayed, in order for the Government to review and modify its policies concerning land tenure and pricing. As noted earlier in the text, these issues are being addressed by Government. The project itself entails the development of communal cattle production centers and the provision of inputs, supplies and veterinary support. VI. Technical Assistance Program 23. The ongoing technical assistance program is generally project related, and is concentrated in agriculture, education and tourism. This emphasis is appropriate, and results to date suggest that the response to - 11 - this technical assistance has been very productive, particularly in agriculture. With regard to the proposed program, this emphasis basically remains unchanged. Considerable assistance is needed in improving vocational skills development capacity and direct assistance for the APUA, with donors, as yet unidentified. Given the very large capital programs being undertak-n by APUA over the next two years, the need for technical assistance to assist in improvement of the companies' operating efficiency is vital. Also assistance is needed in the rinistry of Tourism to improve the statistical data base and provide advice on future strategies and in the Ministry of Economic Development to assist in overall macro-economic and project planning. VII. Medium Term Policies and Prospects 24. The medium term economic policy framework for Antigua and Barbuda will continue to be dominated by fiscal management issues, the severity of which will be dependent upon the future performance of the economy, particularly the tourism sector. In order to evaluate the scope of policy actions, economic projections covering the period 1986 to 1995 have been developed (these are shown in Annex II). In these projections, the robust growth recorded over the past three years is assumed to continue up to 1990, with a slight moderation in the pace of growth thereafter. Furthermore, within the context of the projection scenario, the ambitious Government targets for fiscal revenue (an increase in current revenues equivalent to about 35% of GDP in 198b from 28.U% in 1985) in the latest budget are assumed to be realized, and that this improvement will hold throughout the projection period. Two other important caveats warrant mention. First, a future lease payment to the Government for the Deep Bay Hotel has not been included in the projections, due to the great uncertainty as to its likely magnitude. Second, it has been assumed state enterprise savings i;ill increase by about 10% per annum. This may be conservative given the recent decline in oil prices and the possibilities for significant rate adjustments in electricity and water tariffs and improvements in operating efficiencies. The policy issues that derive from these projections, and the analysis in other parts of this report, are discussed below. (i) The massive increase in public sector investment in 1986 auid 1987, and the associated increase in external debt, will impose a significant burden on fiscal resources. Over the period 1986 to 1991 a cumulative fiscal gap of about EC$287.2 million is indicated. This excludes any program of elimination of past arrears. Amortization of external public sector debt over this period totals EC$267.0 million. lf a further buildup in external arrears is to be avoided, additional fiscal revenue measures and public utility rate adjustments will be necessary, together with a significant rescheduling of external obligations. - 12 - CHART 1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - BXTBRNAL DEBT U 80 78.7 75 70 65 60 55 48.4 50 A 45 1 40.7 40 35 30 32.2 / I~ ~~ I 25 1 Z-t , _,_ - 13.2 10 10 g '-8''\ *'. < .' / > +.,.-' --'\ .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.......... 6.5 5 ..... -.7>^2. ___5.8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ARREARS ACCUMULATION US$ Mllllons 27.8 25 25 20 0 s18.6 K1Y: 20 _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Total Debt/GDP 15 Debt Servce/ _ ~~~~~~~~~~~~Govt.Reveaue lo eL .5r Iterest/Govt. Revenue6..5.. = _ = _ - 1nterest ~~~~~~~~~~~~Debt Service/_,_ o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ Exports GNFS 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 - 13 - Table 5: Public Sector Financing Requirements a/ (SCA millions) 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 Pub. Sector Cap. gxp. 188.9 216.1 35.8 bz.7 b9.2 75.6 Amortization 1b.9 43.5 81.5 40.8 40.8 42.4 Financing Requirement 207.8 259.6 137.3 103.5 110.0 116.U Sources Pub. Sector Savings 28.4 35.1 38.7 42.9 47.3 51.7 Indentifed External 161.3 204.8 38.8 - - - Gap -18.1 -19.7 -59.8 -60.b -b2.7 -66.3 a/ based upon macroeconomic projections as shown in Annex II. (ii) Alternatively, the estimated fiscal gap could be teduced by a significant reduction in either current or capital expenditures. In the latter category, it is worth noting, however, that in the projections the real capital expenditures in 1990 are only 4.5% higher than that recorded in 1982. (iii) The Government has undertaken a program to sell a variety of Government assets, including factory shells and the Halcyon Cove tiotel, for which negotiations are presently underway. These actions, if successful, will release resources which could be utilized to eliminate a portion of past debt service arrears. This policy of sale of Government assets, if continued, would further reduce the magnitude of the projected fiscal gap. (iii) The looming fiscal gap is not concomittantly reflected in a looming external gap. The favorable medium term outlook for tourism and the continued moderation in import prices, should lead to a further strengthening of the balance of payments. While the current account deficit increases significantly in 198b and 1987 as a result of imports tor the four major projects cited earlier, there is a steady improvement up to 1992. Thereafter, this trend is reversed for the remainder of the projection period, due primarily to projected rising import prices, particularly fuel (import price projections have been drawn from World Bank commodity price projections and manufactures unit value index). (iv) With regard to sector policy issues, the Government has made progress in addressing impediments identified in previous economic memoranda. Utilization of sugar lands for cotton ana vegetable production is progressing well. Land tenure problems are b^tng addressed, a variety of land use and production studies have now been completed that should allow for proper zoning policies to be introduced. Further, public sector institutional reforms have been undertaken in agriculture and tourism that should improve developmental support to both sectors. More attention, however, needs to be directed toward strengthening the industrial promotion function and more effectively coordinating the various sections of - 14.. Government that have an input into the industrial promotion function. Overall, however, the sectoral policy framework is appropriate. z5. The growth scenario outlined above is one of many possible outcomes for the Antiguan economy over the next decade. What is evident, is that the overall performance of the economy, and, to a large extent the Government's fiscal performance, will be crucially dependent upon the performance of the tourism sector. As has been shown in the past, the performance of this sector is highly variable on a year to year basis, imparting considerable uncertainty to year by year growth performance. Given the country's single sector dependence, which is likely to continue, Government's fiscal policy needs to be framed in the context that there is a high probability that there will be large variations in economic growth on a year to year basis. This implies tight control on expenditure growth, with particular emphasis on the recurrent cost implications of capital expenditures and a current expenditure budget that retains a high degree of flexibility on a year to year basis. To illustrate these issues a further economic scenario was projected utilizing lower levels of GDP growth. Instead of average growth of 5.1X per annum from 1986 to 19V5, a lower growth of 3.i% per annum was utilized. In this case, the cumulative fiscal gap from l9bb to 1991 increases to about EC$2U8.OU million, which maKes Antigua and Barbuda's creditworthiness even more uncertain. Furthermore, performance of the current account of the balance of payments is not so robust, becoming negative in 1993, with the deficit increasing thereafter. - 15 - Table 6: Macroeconomic Projections 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 GD)P (fact;or cost) growth 0.5 6.7 b.0 b.1 5.4 5.b 5.5 4.5 (EC$ Millions) National Accounts GDP (mp) real 258.5 275.7 292.3 310.3 327.2 345.5 364.6 381.1 Investment 64.5 79.3 164.8 178.9 94.2 100.0 105.6 110.3 Public 14.5 24.3 106.5 117.0 29.0 31.1 32.b 34.3 Private 50.0 55.0 58.3 61.9 b5.3 b8.9 72.7 7b.0 Consumption 221.6 240.U 253.1 258.7 270.7 283.1 296.0 30b.6 Public 44 3U.3 59 4W.-6 b69.2 73.0 77.1 b1.4 85.1 Private 177.3 189.1 188.5 189.5 197.7 206.0 214.6 223.5 Domestic Savings (7 GDP) 14.3 13.0 13.4 16.6 17.2 18.1 18.8 19.U (% of GDP nominal) Public Finances Pub. Sector Savings 4.6 3.1 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 Capital Expen. 5.6 8.8 3b.4 37.7 b.9 9.0 9.0 9.0 (. of GJP nominal) Balance of Payments Exports GNFS 71.1 69.6 72.5 74.8 76.5 76.1 79.8 80.7 Import GNFS 82.3 83.2 103.7 103.2 73.6 74.2 74.8 77.0 Current BOP -3.8 -8.2 -27.8 -2'5.6 5.5 7.8 9.5 7.9 External Debt External Debt (% of GDP m.p.) 31.8 3b.4 58.5 78.7 63.0l 56.2 ,U. 46.1 Debt Service/ Exports GNFS 5.0 8.9 11.8 16.5 23.5 11.3 9.6 8.9 Debt Service/ Govt. Revenue a/ 16.4 21.2 23.6 33.2 48.4 23.7 20.5 19.3 a/ General Government current revenues plus public enterprise savings. - 16 - ANNEX I Public Sector Investment and Technical Assistance Programs - 17 - Annex I Page 1 of 8 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - ONGOING (EC$ 'OGO) External Financing Local Financing Terms and Conditlons Total Interest Amort. Grace Cost Amount Source Amount S Rate Period Period Agriculture Agri. Input Revolving Fund 117 17 10 Grant Land Development 600 600 1i0 Agri. Equip. - Sugar Corp. 600 600 auppilers credit Peanut Project 195 195 100 Livestock Improvement 1,797 1,312 USAID 485 27 Grant Agri. Production - Taiwan Counterpart 152 152 100 Laboratory Extension 700 700 100 Cotton Industry Project 1,814 1,814 100 Rehab. of Agrl.-Llvostock 100 100 FAO cGant Fisheries Industry D*v. 9.730 9,372 CoB 358 4 4 15 5 Sugar Industry 270 270 100 Industry Extension of Factory Shells 265 265 UK Grant Factory Shall Construction 5,091 5,091 100 Tourlsm Handieraft Centre 737 486 USAID 251 34 G?ant Guset House - Barbuda 1,020 1,020 OPEC English Harbor Study 19S 195 CIDA Grant Deep Bay Hotel Project 156,171 153,049 Bank Syndicate 3,122 2 LIBOR + 2.5X 6 3 Nolsons Dockyard Infrast. 70 70 UK Grant Transport Fire Fighting Equip.-Barbuda 150 ISO UK Grant Navigational Aids - Alrport 869 869 CIDA Grant Port Authority - Cap. Exp. 668 668 100 Telecomm Equip. - Coolidge 774 774 UK Grant Imprvmts. - Barbuda Airport 50 50 100 Runway Resurfacing 29,984 29,984 Comm. Bank 10.25/11.2 7 2 Port Handling Equip. 740 740 CIDA Grant Read Reconstruction 7,000 7,000 EDF Grant Airport Ancililary Infras. 3,118 3,118 100 - 18 - Annex I Page 2 of 8 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMEN' PROGRAM - ONGOINO (Contd.) (EC$ '000) External Financing Local Financing Terms and Conditions Total Interest Amort. Grace Cost Amount Source Amount X Rate Period Period Utility Services Desalination Plant 116,650 116,650 Comm. and 14.0 & 8.0 3 & 10 1 & 3 Japan EX-IM Cassada Garden Generators 2,565 2,565 Comm. Bank Wind Power Project 421 421 CD8 (USAID) Grent Water Distrlbutlon 11 11,616 11,584 Trinadad/Tobago 32 3 Emergency Rellf - Barging 1,691 1,291 Multiple 400 24 Grant Water Supply Expansion 16,927 11,927 USAID 5,000 30 Grant & Loan Cassada Garden Drainage 600 600 100 Standby Generators-Barbuda 1,000 1,000 UK Grant Telephone Expansion 1 2,000 2,000 CIDA Grant Telephone Expansion 11 30,200 27,000 Private 3,200 11 LIBOR + 2.5X 1 Pymt. In 1996 Education Construction of Classrooms 202 202 100 Urilngs School 695 605 UK 90 13 Grant Basic Needs Trust Fund 2,808 2,808 COB Grant Renovation of Otters School 430 430 100 St. Johns All Age School 420 420 100 Reconst. Clove Hall School 1,243 1,243 UK Grant New St. Johns Primary School 387 387 100 Health Vehicles - Health 1,298 1,298 100 Holberton Hospital - Other 630 630 100 Mental Hospital 206 206 100 Holberton Hosp.-Child Ward 1,671 1,671 100 Health & Family Lile Unit 51 26 UN 25 50 Grant Family Planning Project 254 254 USAID Grant Recreation Area Improvement 344 344 100 - 19 - Annex I Page 3 of 8 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - ONGOING (Contd.) (ECJ '000) External Financing Local Financing Terms and Conditions Total Interest Amort. Grace Cost Amount Source Amount S Rate Period Period Administration Treasury Computers 797 797 100 Independence Arch. 109 109 100 Min. of Finance Bldg. 853 853 100 Courthouse RehabilitatIon 200 110 UK 90 45 Govt. Bidge. Renovation 1,000 1,000 100 New Legislative Bldg. 667 545 UK 122 18 Grant Government Prlntery_ 1,330 1,330 UK Grant Soclal Security Bldg. 3,200 3,200 100 Miscellaneous ABOB Equity NW/Global Crdt. 498 498 CDB Low Income Housing - ABDO 2,425 2,425 100 Housing - Chapa 5,749 5,749 100 Land & Building Purchases 1,836 1,836 100 Funding Scheme 6,095 6,095 100 Fire & Rescue Equip. 2,897 2,897 100 Police VehIcles 222 222 100 Other Sundry Capital Exp. 1,783 67 1,716 96 - 20 - Annex I Page 4 of 8 ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PUBLIC SECTOR INVESTMENT PROGRAM - NEW (EC '000) External Financing Local Flnancing Terms and Conditions Total Interest Amort. Grace Coat Amount Source Amount X Rate Period Period Agriculture Livestock Development 11 3,742 3,144 EDF 598 16 Grant Corn-Sorghum Pilot Research 451 UNKNOWN Goat/Sheep Farming 464 UNKNOWN Livestock Industry 11 2,489 2,241 coB 248 10 4 15 5 Small Farmers Irrigation 2,970 2,700 CDB 270 9 4 15 5 Tourism English Harbor Park Proj. 8,400 8,400 UK/CIDA Grant Transport Airport Taxiway 19,000 19,000 UNKNOWN Air Traffic Control Radar 5,400 5,400 UNKNOWN Road Reconstruction 11 8,000 8,000 EDF 6rant Utility Services Barbuda Electricity 756 756 UK Grant Electtlcity Distribution 9,450 9,450 UNKNOWN Education Rehab. Bendalls School 1,323 1,323 UK Grant Miscellaneous Police Radios 567 567 UK Grent -1 ~ ~~ 333 333 3 Xaj0 ^ IIJ ~ ~ ... .2 2 ;X , f P Bt zg 1 I ! | , ,1. .... ~i , I...,. | i s ~~~1 5 S...1 & 4t . !~~~~~ - SI 1X|....}g|J cat5 ! SS 0ti s!' -i a.| - -x t _ | 8 2 S i J 8 8 ~~i U a 8 *~~ I :8 i * 8 -~ ~ k A I ;2 : 0 11 3 i S .1 Z t . | / X . i . z i3 1 i 3 i 7i | 0 h | _ |i OOOLO 0i0 W ; | l; ag# | s#2 i Q lX 0it 0 20 l~~ i | lKe@l X ee lI | | :2g : :;: a66Stt I w^n: N s s !~ 1!~ : '1 T 1 2 ,,l,i 1111 1 1 1}0 fl A"" I - 23 - Pep 7 400 LIST Ow NWO£0 1A583)88 C-OATIOlt PMS 800t '(84) EXIMWS FIM;lSs aRAlota vAsCIflATIItt TITEYUCT TOTA IlARIS OTSm MA&UlaATIEW PF"UCT BICI ttT WA.. awV STAFbT .0T188 88) S8F8 lUffR 4WT t01 (2) Agrl..ltur (AN)} mt. Mo8. '8. t.e A0. D.. "a W43 C8 Crt 8C 1w WS ePtoo884 ArIsltol 8.#_b1t80. otn8800 AM tto(.84- OtJT1 ACRtm t54r 04o1 r8858. vs.. Y..1g a 38 fA# Orat 19S 1W 7AO _pd*KW To _th c l0t08 e. Ptei0t-rbtd t8 MtR2 Crbfl Fbn1. 0l8l8r .. . FtO oot 00 VW httfly FAO .Wp# 0d 8 8l1tal fisTlrol 0wb .nt p. Projeot-MIWO4 10!AR 8)8.8.8181r Pl.t PrJ.j.t 38 35 FFO Or.t Tlo _tb3 FAO .pWfl0 Sholy of amoom,cl w08 wlwlt n. Pt*j"-l8.nbd 48880 floo ro. lal.l.g 80 16 FtO e.,t T8w ofla ftO Q P 1w. 11 n141 )880. P"j""t-nbw 01A porsity O.i.wn8t fO 60 F*1 "rt T Tcr -8I FAO *Wwo0 OW-gl8t0 188 #f1* . 8otry pi- Otbr AtAMW 8. O8 ..I.10t 4.388 5.O 88 C.mt s - * 88fEC WoOtiod It8 p 880btlM Of IM 18"Oft8 88(. T.8 0t 8880)88*8 .898888. WAdTtCM8 t204.lSte. dloo P l .. 1A S.t T. yo.. fAO *pmot8(ro 1rac 48 f _1.0 r.1 , I.t8tlflootlao O0 pftprltl8 08 M8Tt 8C1.1I 0 .84. .. .. Col. CnU Om lt Chi. 8 wooth Footho,8 W r 80oo-l"y ,rdt 6.s-l ttbd t8 M).I.tly of e8 tlo,. OIF 0A8I)I 0t041c8t U,Iw MO 200 ) Om8 poor , M!"N L8o0thttrolt. 18101s8 Om ,11k 88* . Att088 tQ lostr) , .1 .d .tit . Ota t 88883 8-..1 (88.0) Other 0)100 St-Itf-l.9 T1.c. 0. .. .D . Or..t TIre I)8 08 o _ t*,08 s c *r 48t-80 .,l.8d. T.I#V4r Eng.'Ioo,,,twW .m. 8yo)8. 8001 108 8.80 0)808, .88* o0408. W 1. A1I_A. Otb3 r 8T810 mt. SvIy (WS) No8 sopp9 e #8.. I8 I 8.10 3,0( 0808 0rs,0t Tim pV.. U!tlO qpto. Pt." I on *. r phtlol 147. 8.8 8.t brd. 8098. P1J8t-118884 4A88 3888 e88)0.1 IPVA .. .. .. 8"nt T1 y78r1 O0~ _of8888 .d CFTC 0AM8. Ot88 88I8I 8888088 D1S C8.P.8r Prffr-r () .. . 0.8.) t Tti 0t8 De o - A.Itoolo ft td *fb8 -"Ir~ *C4 I88 t 4 Irbd8.. Pr8tn8t88 MNEI8M8 am 0t., AMA o .. - - .-t Tw Po18 041 Intl t8 0 .s.tr.Ugr8". Ot88r 1088(83 ;.611, *f81. s0 lil8 lTr. .. .. .. 8101t 10 rw. Or.8wr W 4l8r e l78b Ski88 )ot8ol4. Ot)r t8)W I... Sporl #uNo. 8. p.t. .. .. .. 5r8t 38. l . 1014 r00804) 018 8 W8stmt,,,l 04l08nr 80 888t80t 18tln48 08 3 18480. 088 0)FI - 24- Al_I- AttlUGA ATO flA TtlCgL Ctt0XO _M IM - I"0 bce 'U0o eest ASUtt 3 W WIt514 G615fiFCAT10I IIIu/0.4601 1010. 000A(0 £6164T PID2F-40A10V ID can1 65Q! $K LO SW WI? 0ALI46 *1111 on mau Wm (I) CS) 0150t146 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ IRM 11 101146101 SXIAL SWIIES flaticm & tr*l"l (M T) LI.) OW.ls traie 1 40 .. .. .. 0rt us P hI ret au" AI0 t151141 tdatift o*l.mt 3,TS11 3.1? WVIMA L5n To ryrn $ W/A srowt4d Cod la 4611 altowl. COWTIOlas 50*Iqpt Altipe Strh COIN". P leejctlt amt2 fa ical lftbm TreSisb .. .. .. Irts 15 ), mob 0am alrm "A D Atrsed 41EpIem tr0 0 ff PA" be r tfca f.l at ASO. rt."wle(5 A6001 AlrabditimlldIelrig. lat1stIr .. .. .. Cro t tw y'wr 0mw 00'kf' W l st af ff AtAig St h Collate. pr9j51011 ANITT4 glas1,ot.1 tmpss,w *. . s Is pwe DOW, uSow. opartIcsel o1ft" IV 0111g.. S1l5 colel . #lo.1at1.sllo Slaws fEdmlee IreeSs 4ot r .. .. .. I) 05 15, 05 1 o AMIw0 4 sal#0is fw cfttfg sm St" h Ctts. 00c..' 41Wt16 £50115 tq5Iy bIrr .I. . . 4 .. lt 5oer ^ 15w yar 0.4. 1511104 rw trlOls 55fe r 1r1 l.lo Rs t . O tler 111 E*tlaa 1"ohsesy tr t4t S a 4 *ft IDO w 0q: tnh t tIS. rf rwrerimlw O."Wis" efftlr. othe ArTI Pe.Iotlm, .malt, 0t4ltil AID .sI1ty E.9l1, .. .. . Crt T. .w, Onor _a l04Iac_et at cFte *.ib Mo a." 1146. OtIw Al6mb1 115111 A ce ity S I..04 Inesx so" ca lItia 101r101) .. . CGnt 00 yef T.,bl. spcOalist rmtir to WgS*15/meSt rdltIc 0r411m. ot1er Wow TIloelslm I.. b r tiss S4 3U 01 e1.t T- y/r 0U 1/b dWncWd N4od $nt*l W _ t1r1141 011p. rja0.lIl14 5)111 WIt..I CmasletOt It it on t 1T_ 06W w1 ftd 4 CUtl toI4ok 119 11 am9. Oto , 0400CSS 21W1. Pr.WtJ Aaost -0tger. £5151 pt). .. .1 T. I.,. 0mw Vm- EOqWI 011(15 6orl trttfo lsti r tt. sma t .t *01 Oth0, AlFrAl =1 I So.". As. r 1 .. .. Cr00.41t The -tn P11110 l5 1 Coltast 0 t1 oly IL Cele rliot. 5 51)646 Pol,. wol0, lOIs) Priase Jffilool Owl . .. .. C,nt Si. t1 t1 nsu 0 fOfr _00 E"emasle l,lo* I e/loews. *tmr 46f0Al x115lls-5. (WSJ ro-tlg swlel1 1 Om (t . l. a1( MD (A 1C051 1io nleg 46401505 5 1tf IIl "l _ft 101111£d ff015 1)4.WI. 'ret nlte 4 1 II 111 oof op911e500 s, 1111)1 4la10m111 511,. 11) .1114. of 115t5 w lise i t isbll1 sm1 t 4t. mao. 550.. 2 t01 A Owe. a.0" - 25 - ANNEX II Macroeconomic Projections - 2 6 - AO1 Pago I of 2 AtI*A AM FIft I - 1i CO11111 PRoECtiM4 (iWl vsIo In ign7 prir^s Icwle 1 EInf nilillen e4r$Pt far sop to Us54 mil IIIon ed ffwth rates as p reosxn I l Itt 19 ile 1964 1 9fi 19 97lo 19i?3 I ISO 90 1991 1992 1993 1994 I99S OW (Ctfctw cst)i Agriultirs II.7 11.6 i0.4 11.9 12.4 15.0 13.5 14.1 14.S 15.4 16.3 17.3 I"N 19.4 itCletufifo7 15-9 14' ''-' 1'4A 14.7 IS ISJ 15.6 IS .9 16.4 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.2 C004truction it.? lo a 11.3 12d6 13.7 14.7 15.4 16.5 17.3 18.5 19.S 21 3 22.a 24.4 Tron port 6 Cammruca tiou 40.9 46J7 SO.I Se.1 %A^ 59.6 62.6 65fl 67D0 711a 74.7 77.7 80.8 a4.0 Tradol 2i.6 2i.9 23.2 24.5 27.2 30.2 52.9 35.9 39.s 41.6 44.1 45.8 49.6 52.6 Hotels 6 R00'sulaot 25.1 30.8 Jt.9 4S.1 47.8 53.1 57 S9 63.1 66a. 75.2 77. tG23 a7.2 92.S Othor $0er-7lf 6a 2 7D.S 71.7 74.0 76.2 is. ao 80 83. S 5 fr.8 i7.5 as.3 $1.0 92.9 S4.7 ouP TOTAL 154.1 206.5 220.0 254.7 2MtA 264.1 2le.5 29J.1 310. A 32 .4 358.9 554.0 569.9 3s6.? GI? otowth -1.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 6.0 6.1 S.J S A S. S *S 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 OW Deflator 152.3 160.4 167.9 174.4 177.4 Itl4.6 192.6 VA1 210.9 220.4 W.5 2W.7 251.5 262d8 SW 010041MAL 29S6 331.2 369.4 409S3 "I413 487.6 5363 t 93.0 654.6 715.0 780.5 tlS2.1 95DA 1016.2 tG? tOh1AL (f.p.l 352.3 t89.1 454.0 4eo.9 518.5 572.8 630.0 696J7 769D0 8t.0 9t7.0 lOOi. 1 I9J.1 1195.9 OWP i^*kt prices t 21.5 X2A2 258.5 275.7 2S2.5 110.3 527J2 345.5 X4b A 581.1 3S8.1 415.9 434 b 454.3 MW Ajusb=nt -5.7 0.4 0.4 6.7 29.5 54.1 4ti.2 52.2 56.4 52b6 4a.2 43.0 57.0 30J3 fil 225 6 243.0 2se.9 282- 321.8 344.4 375.5 3977J 421.1 45S.8 446.3 458.9 Val. 484.5 iriprts 152D0 143-4 171D. 179.5 191. S 10.5 225.7 242.2 2t0D m 27s 2d7.7 502.7 S18b6 335.4 sbpelty to bwpot 146.3 143.8 171.4 le6 o 223.4 244.6 273.9 294.3 316.4 326.1 3SSd9 34S.7 155.7 3sS.7 Irpots 221 J 170.6 19t8.7 2.8 319.5 537.8 263.5 27S e 296.9 511.2 3SX.2 542.0 3D.9 S76.9 Total xditsro 501D0 269. 2a6.1 319.3 417.9 457.6 XS O t83.2 401.6 418.9 4355b 4SS.2 474.8 4SS.7 InvtatJt 96.5 52 fl 64.5 n93 164.8 17S fl 94.2 IOOD0 105.6 110.3 115.3 12D.A 12S6 e IM S Pwibc 31.4 16d8 14.S 24.5 106.5 117.0 29SD 31. 32A 54.5 355A 57.4 39.1 40.9 Prhvat 65.1 56.I SO. O . SS 65.5 61 9 65.5 68 .9 72.7 76.0 79.4 85.0 86.7 90.6 CanrLsstlon 2D4.5 216.9 2216 X524.0 253.1 258.7 270.7 283.1 296 0 508. 321.4 534.8 549.0 3&4.2 PutI IC 456A 435. 44.3 SO 9 64.6 69.2 n3.0 77.1 81l.4 8S.1 BSad 92A8 Y7.0 I tl.4 Privaeh ID.g 175b6 1n.3 189.1 1a8.5 189.5 1S7.7 2D6.0 214.b 225.5 232.S 242.0 252D0 262.8 Uf4"gtb Solid"v 26d 25.7 56 fl 35J 39.3 SI AS 56.4 62.4 69.6 72b X e. 9'I .' Ss.6 SOI Facto-r 6¢ff1to lam -6f9 -4.5 -0.9 -8.4 -14.0 -15.2 -15d8 -17.7 -7.9 -e6 -8.4 -10.1 -9.9 -11.4 tronsf fs 19.9 20.2 20.3 a3.2 24D0 24.2 24J 24 t 24.5 24.6 24.7 24.9 25.0 25.1 WiMaol SOVI4gn 59.7 41A4 56.3 50D6 49.3 60.5 65.0 76.1 85.2 e8 s 93.t 9S.9 100.7 103.8 Exp7t Projections imdcturo IIJ 10.0 di 8.5 9.7 9.1 9.4 9Jt 10.2 10.6 IID0 11 S. 11.9 12.4 ag7riculture 0.3 0.2 0.3 M0.40. 0.4 OS O O 0.6 0b 0.7 0.7 0OJ 0.8 O t7 r 19.l 11.8 12.7 12D0 12.2 12.4 12.6 12a 15.0 15.2 15wA 15. 135 1 4.0 total mtewwmnls* 31.1 2t.9 21 A 20.9 2t.4 ao0 22.6 2a.2 a.8 24.4 25.1 25.7 26.5 27.2 ttonfecUrService$ 2S.2 31J2 42.0 45.5 SOS5 XO. 61.0 66.5 72.5 76S9 81.5 85.4 9tb6 97.t lots I Expor t 56 3 53.1 65.3 66.4 71.8 78.0 63.6 89.7 9X.3 101.3 105.6 112.1 11a.0 124.2 Eaport Prics Inoicsa cWAostre 158.5 168.5 175 S 176.1 179.1 Itt6<5 194.5 203.6 215D0 222.6 252.6 245.0 254.0 265. Agricuitwr 158.5 166.3 193.5 2W.2 Mg.1 Ift4.2 2tO. o 2as.4 272.9 2a6.3 300.3 515.0 53u.S WA. Otbr ISftS 168.3 175.9 17.1 179.1 166.S 194.5 203A 215.0 222b6 232.6 245D0 2s4.0 265.4 total tcmagNU41b IS9 168.5 174.1 176.6 179.4 186. A 9 IN 2D4.5 214.S 224.2 234.4 245.0 256S.1 267A4 40nfector Servim 170.5 I75.7 183.5 190. S 20. 210.1 22D 6 251.6 245.2 255.5 269.1 2rtl.5 2"A 310.4 Total £rwP7r 165.5 183.2 180.3 186.1 193.9 2D5. 2tSI.6 224.6 236.i 247.8 260.2 273.1 2N6.7 301.0 Exporbtsmo enat value) 41Wt *cturs *14. 16J 14.5 ISD0 15 s 18.9 It.4 20.0 21.t 23.6 25S.7 27.9 so.5 55.0 Aitriclbltr 0.4 0.5 0.6 O N 0A* 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.8 2D0 2.2 2.5 2.7 Otbr 30J3 19t 22.1 21.2 21.9 25.1 2435 26.0 n7. 29.3 311.1 55D0 SSD0 S7.1 Total meiorhndis 49.3 57.8 S7.2 S7 O 38.4 40.9 43.9 47.3 Sl .0 54.7 58.7 63.1 67. t n t tlonfactor Srvorslc 42.9 54.2 77D 86.6 100.41 117.6 !34. A 54.1 176.4 195.5 218.5 243.2 210.6 01.2 total fxpefb 72.2 92.0 114.2 125.6 139.3 158.6 17a.6 2tl.4 227.3 251.0 2m.2 306.2 33A. 54.0 ImSet Projectio7ns food 1-O 12.2 13d0 15.6 14.3 14.6 153 16.0 16J1 17.1 17.4 17J It. 18. 5 I Foil 29.4 14J7 19.2 31.7 53.2 34.8 X6.3 58.0 39J7 41.1 42.6 44.1 ff.7 47.3 Vandectarec 17.3 16.7 IS J 14J7 15.7 16.7 17J7 ISA 119f 20fl 22.0 23.0 24.2 25.4 Nchin ry 8 *Trn. E(PIP. 14.1 11.7 16.1 15.6 45S6 48 r 17.S 19.5 21.6 25.6 25.7 28.0 30. S 5.2 Ottxor 8.1 7.7 8.2 aJ7 9.2 9A6 10.3 10.9 Il.S 12.0 12.5 15.1 13.7 14.3 T*obl ttehan4as 82A0 a3.l n3 Q2.2 118.0 124.7 97.2 103.1 109.4 114J7 120.2 126D0 152.1 138.7 Ilonftactor Sarvicte 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 O.S 0.5 0.6 OA 0OJ 0.8 Ofl Ttoli InVob fl2.1 63.2 75.6 82.5 114.5 125.1 97.6 105.6 110.0 115.3 120.8 126.7 152.9 139b - 27 - Am ' Pap 2 of 2 AlTIWM AM WtW - Wt 54t C PRtECTIOS (Graa oimn1a In o77 prices, i.981 In ECS miio1n uxpt for MP In 3W*ml1II tmo 94wr1o6 rtot" as percent) 1ts2 1983 1984 1989 1990 68 1 IN 19If190 1991 1 9S2 1993 MI 199 Iriort Peloc Indilces Food 170.2 172.7 181.3 183.0 181.3 171 188.4 27.3 228.0 239.2 250.9 263.2 276.1 269.A Fumls 170.2 172.7 172.7 172.7 124.3 35.4 137.6 140.0 142.3 Mi. 184.1 269.4 258.1 270.8 l dootores *170.2 172.7 178.4 183.2 186.3 194.0 2023 21I1 2A2s 231.5 242.0 92 264.2 276.1 MXcbhnary * Tratn. EqUIP. 170.2 172.7 17T.4 143.2 1i6.3 194.0 242.3 211 A 221.6 251.5 262.0 252.8 264.2 276.1 Otter 170.2 172.1 178.4 183.2 1t683 19430 202.3 211.8 2216 231.5 242.0 252.8 264.2 276.1 Total Mar,_t.dIo 170.2 172.7 1793 179.5 18.3 11 .9 175.9 184.7 193.8 207.7 222.8 25S.1 256.8 276.1 Nbfa ctor Services 170.2 172.7 178.4 183.2 18U3 194.o 202.3 211Jt 221.6 231.3 242.0 252M 264.2 276.1 Total Iqorts 170.2 172.7 179.9 17S0S 1843 175.0 176.1 1I4.8 194.0 267a 222.9 23S.2 2s6A 276.1 lporbt (current ralwm) Food 22.2 21.1 25.1 25.1 25.9 25.1 26.8 33.2 38.2 40.8 43.1 46.7 50.0 S3.5 fuels SO.1 25.4 33.1 54.7 41.3 47.1 0.0 53.2 36.4 66. 7.A4 92.3 108.7 129.1 t.ougfctores 23.4 28.9 28.4 26.9 29.2 52.4 35d 39.8 44.2 48 5 53.2 53.3 63.9 70.1 4clhtn ry I trans. Equip. 24.0 20.2 26.8 2469 t5.0 94.7 3S. 41.2 47.9 54.8 62.1 70.7 803 91.8 0th r tsa 3.S3 16.4 1S. 17.1 18.9 20.8 23.0 25.4 27A 30.3 33.1 16.1 39.5 Total tsrceImmls 1339.6 108.9 131.8 147.5 18.a 218.2 170.9 190.5 21.1 238.2 267.7 301.1 339.4 323.0 3niactor Sarviva 0.2 0.2 0.9 0A .7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.2 . IAt. t.8 2.1 2.4 Total 4ort 139.7 109.1 132.3 148.1 199.2 211.0 171.8 191.5 213.t 9A 269.2 352.9 31.4 355.4 Bcabw d Ppomnts Eaport 92.2 92.D 114.2 123.9 139.3 1tS6 178A 261.4 227.1 251t 277.2 306.2 5!84 374.0 law rt 1t8.6 109.1 132.3 148.1 199.2 29.0 t1.8 191.5 213.3 29A 269.2 262.9 541.4 585.4 Reource 6aisoa -46.4 -17.1 -18.1 -24.2 -59.9 *60.4 6.7 10.0 14.0 11O t 8.0 3.3 -330 -tt.4 6t. Factor Inc.r -3.9 -2.7 -0A -5.4 -.2 -tOA -11.3 -8.0 -6.2 -7.0 -7.2 o.0 -9.2 -11.1 lnterst Pus OI, ebt 4.2 1.2 0D 5.1 9S 10.° 11.7 7.6 *. 6A 7.6 8.8 9A OA Other 0.3 03 .0 -0.3 0.3 -O. 0.4 -0.4 0.4 -.0.4 . -.4 0.4 .0.5 Tranmsrs 11.2 12.0 12.6 1MO 15.8 165 17.4 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.1 22.2 23.1 24.4 Currat Account SM -39.1 -7. -6.1 -14.6 -5.3 -94.3 12.8 20.2 27.0 24A 21.9 163A 11.1 1.9 Ns_t PtIc C*tt to 7.7 -0.1 -13 3.2 sa.7 59.7 -15.8 -1.6 -.4 .0.2 9.3 9.8 9 9.6 or at 1.1 OA 2. 1.3 1.0 1.0 03 03 03 03 0. 0.S 4 O Loon Olarl nts 9.7 4.7 253 7.8 54.4 70.7 103 11.6 123 14.0 tS3 16.7 18.2 19.9 k_rtlztln 3.1 5.4 33. S3 7.0 16.1 3D.2 .I 15.1 15.7 7.3 8.0 9.7 11.0 Privets Capital (at) 42.2 435 73 11.4 0. -S9S 3.0 -ASA -26.5 -24.3 -31.4 -26.2 -20.7 -1 s3 OvralI Bel.m* 10.8 -3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 OWW(XP -3S.7 -6.4 -4.A -9.6 -32. -3.1 6.5 9.2 11.1 9.3 7* 5.2 3.2 0.5 PmaitC S£tR wErlomS Godral Conmnwnt Current RevenuS 105.6 1tS.0 1St 134. 1t8.6 2003 220.5 243. 269.2 294D 325a 350.4 582.6 417.9 Corrt Expodit.wo to0oA 102.2 107.3 12.9 160.7 177.5 195.3 215.9 258.3 260.3 264.2 310.2 38.8 370.0 General Goornimnt SavIng -2* -2.2 8.3 5. 17.9 233 23.2 n.9 3M8 53.7 36.7 40.1 43.8 47.8 Stlto Entorlpris Saving4 4 SA HA 93 103t 12.1 133 1.O 16.5 18.0 19.J 21 233 25A Catgit EalL ttres 47. 27D 244 42.3 1as3 216.1 SS9. 62.7 69.2 75A 82.5 90.1 98.4 107.4 Overall OefIcit -45.8 -23.6 .4A -n.2 -160.5 -181.1 -17.0 -11.A -21.9 -23.9 -26.1 -263 -31.1 -;4.0 Extarnim FInancIng 20.8 -0.3 -4.0 8.7 142.4 161 -42.7 -4.4 -1.2 -0.6 25.7 26.3 26.0 253 Grnat 330 1.6 7.0 3 1U.4 13.8 10.9 s.O 33 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 Loon 26.2 12.7 79.7 21.1 146S 191.0 27VA 314 34.6 37a 413 45.0 49.2 53.7 t.rtIZation 8.4 14.6 90.7 15t 1S8. 433 81.5 '4. 40.8 42.4 19. 21.7 26.2 29A Omestic FInancing 12.5 683 -1.1 -6.3 0.0 03 03 0.0 03 03 D 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Artoar For*19) 12.2 I7A 9.7 24. 03D 0.0 0.0 0.0 03 0.0 0D 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gcp 0.0 0.0 0.0 03 -18.1 -191 S9.7 -24.3 -23.1 -243 -0.4 -2.1 -5.1 -.l Total Extarnal Dmbt 51.5 s 3.s S13 643 112.3 166.9 147.1 144.9 144.0 143.3 152.3 1613A 170.7 179 SCP RATIOS P9b1ic Sector Savla -0.9 -0.7 2.2 1.4 4.1 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 State Enterprtis Saving t. 1.7 3.1 2.3 2.4 2.5 23 2.3 2.5 2 23 2.5 23 2.5 Currant Revenn 55.8 30.2 31.3 52.9 403 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 41.1 ODm0t1 Saving. 11.6 10. 14.3 13.0 13.4 16A . 7.2 18.1 8. 19.0 19.3 193 19.7 19.8 lnoaotnt 41.7 21. 25.0 28.7 56.4 57.7 2.8J 2.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 20.9 26.9 293 O6bt SorvltrExports 7.9 9.3 2.4 8.9 t8A 16.5 23.5 11.3 9. 8.9 5A 5.4 5.7 S8 totalt 0o. VS 47D 43A V7A 42.0 68.7 92.4 74.1 66.0 59.4 54.1 52.7 S1.2 49.5 47.8 - 28 - ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA Statistical Appendix Table of Contents Table No. Page 1 Sectoral Origin of GDP at Constant Factor Cost, 1980-1985 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29 2 Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Current Prices, 1980-1985 ...................... 30 3 Balance of Payments, 1980-1985 . . . . . . . . . .* . 31 4 Consolidated Operations of the Public Sector, 1980-1985 . . . ............................................... 32 5 Central Goverament Operations, 1984-1986 . ... .. . . .. 35 6 Central Government Revenue, 1982-1986. . . . . . . . . . 37 7 Public Sector Capital Expenditures, 1984-1988. . . . . . 38 8 Summary of External Debt, 1980-1985. . . . . . . . . . . 41 9 Projections of Debt Service, 1986-1990 ........ . 42 10 Tourism, 1980-1985 ........................ 43 11 CostofLivingIndex.................. 44 - 29 - Table 1: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - SECTORAL ORIGIN OF GDP AT CONSTANT FACTOR COST, 1980-1985 (1977 EC$ millions) (prel. Est.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 GDP at Factor Cost 189.3 196.7 194.1 206.5 220.0 234.7 Agri., Fishing, Forestry 13.9 12.4 11.7 11.6 10.4 11.8 Mining/Quarrying 1.2 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 Manufacturing 11.4 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 14.4 Electricity/Water 6.1 6.9 7.4 8.1 8.0 9.0 Corstruction 17.' 18.9 11.7 10.8 11.3 12.8 Wholesale/Retail Z.V 20.6 Z1.b 21.9 23.2 24.5 Hotels/Restaurants 25.9 25.9 26.1 30.8 38.9 43.1 Transport 24.4 24.4 24.7 28.8 31.6 34.5 Communications 11.9 14.4 16.2 17.9 18.5 19.6 banking 13.9 14.9 13.6 14.6 15.1 15.4 Real Estate/Housing 2L.7 21.5 22.5 23.2 23.6 24.5 Government Services 22.0 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.3 Other Services 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.9 10.3 Less Imputed BanK Servi.-e Charges -8.9 -9.4 -8.0 -8. -9.3 -9.8 % Change GDP at Factor Cost 8.0 3.9 -1.3 6.4 6.5 6.7 Agri., Fishing, Forestry - -10.8 -5.7 -0.9 -10.3 13.5 Mining/Quarrying 33.3 -8.3 -18.2 22.2 9.1 8.3 Manufacturing 18.8 21.9 - 2.2 1.4 - Electricity/Water 7.0 13.1 7.3 9.5 -1.2 12.5 Construction 24.6 9.9 -38.1 -7.7 4.6 13.3 Wholesale/Retail 4.5 - 4.9 1.4 5.9 5.6 Hotels/Restaurants 7.0 - 0.8 18.0 26.3 10.8 Transport 0.4 - 1.2 16.6 9.7 9.5 Communications 17.8 21.0 12.5 10.5 3.4 6.0 Banking 13.9 7.2 -8.7 7.4 2.7 2.- Real Estate/Housing 3.0 3.9 4.7 3.1 1.7 3.8 Government Services 10.6 - 1.8 1.8 2.2 - Other Services 3.5 2.2 2.2 2.1 3.1 4.0 GOP Deflator 130.9 139.6 152.3 160.4 167.9 174.4 Source: Ministry of Finance (Statistics Division), OECS Economic Affairs Secretariat and Mission estimates. - 30 - Table 2; ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - EXPENDITURE ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN CURRENT PRICES, 1980-1985 (EC$ millions) (prel. Lat.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 195S Total Consumption 278.7 299.5 332.9 35U.1 365.5 42b.9 Public 50.1 54.2 59.8 68.0 84.2 95.9 Private 228.6 245.3 273.1 282.1 281.3 331.0 Investment 93.5 145.9 146.9 84.6 116.7 123.5 Public 26.2 52.2 47.8 27.0 28.1 42.3 Private 67.3 93.7 99.1 56.6 88.6 81.2 Gross Domestic Expen. 372.2 445.4 479.8 434.7 482.2 550.4 Exports of Goods & NFS 256.5 248.1 248.9 248.4 308.3 334.5 Import of Goods & NFS 340.7 372.1 376.4 294.0 355.9 398.3 GDP at Market Prices 288.0 321.4 352.3 389.1 434.6 48b.6 Indirect Taxes net of subsidies 40.2 46.9 56.6 57.8 b5.3 75.8 GOP at Factor Cost 247.8 274.5 295.7 331.3 369.3 41U.8 (Z of GDP at Market Prices) Investment 32.5 45.4 41.7 21.7 26.9 25.4 Public 9.1 1b.2 13.6 6.9 6.0 8.9 Private 23.4 29.2 28.1 14.8 20.9 16.5 Gross National Savings 8.7 11.8 9.7 16.4 25.0 19.1 Public 1.3 2.4 U.6 0.9 4.6 3.1 Private 7.4 9.4 9.1 15.5 20.4 15.9 Foreign Savings 23.8 33.6 32.0 5.3 1.9 6.3 Source: Ministry of Finance, UECS Economic Affairs Secretariat and Mission estimates. - 31 - Table 3: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, 1980-1985 (US$ millions) (prel. Est.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Current Account -25.4 -40.0 -41.7 -7.6 -3.0 -11.4 Resource Balance -66.7 -86.4 -90.1 -71.1 -94.6 -110.5 Exports of Goods & NFS 95.0 91.9 92.2 92.0 114.2 123.9 Goods 59.5 51.4 49.3 37.8 37.2 37.0 Travel (net) 35.5 40.5 43.7 52.6 76.9 87.5 Other NFS (net) -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 1.6 0.1 -0.6 Imports of Goods -126.2 -137.8 -139.4 -108.9 -131.8 -147.5 Interest Public Debt -2.3 -3.1 -4.3 -3.1 0.1 -5.1 Other Factor Services (net) 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.8 2.0 2.3 Private Transfers (net) 7.0 7.8 8.7 10.6 12.5 15.0 Capital Account 23.0 39.2 36.2 1.2 3.4 12.2 Official Transfers and Grants 3.1 2.6 0.7 - 2.0 1.3 Official Capital (net) 4.0 14.3 6.7 -0.7 -4.0 1.9 Commercial Banks -1.3 0.3 8.6 -6.8 - 4.9 Foreign Private Invest. & Errors & Omissions 17.2 22.0 20.2 8.7 5.4 4.1 Overall Balance -2.4 -0.8 -5.5 -6.4 0.4 0.8 Financing 2.4 0.8 5.5 6.4 -0.4 -0.8 Change in Government Foreign Assets -0.2 -0.1 - - - -0.1 Change in Imputed Reserves Assets 2.0 -0.6 1.0 -U.1 -4.0 -9.9 Official Payments Arrears 0.6 1.5 4.5 6.5 3.6 9.2 Principal 0.2 0.3 1.3 4.1 4.8 4.9 Interest 0.4 1.2 3.2 2.4 -1.2 4.3 Source: Ministry of Finance, ECCB, Department of Tourism, IMF estimates and Mission estimates. - 32 - Page 1 of 3 Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR, 1980-1985 (EC$ million) (prel. Est.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Consolidated Public Sector Current Revenue 72.6 89.2 105.8 100.0 115.6 134.5 Current Expenditure 75.6 88.6 108.4 102.2 107.3 128.9 Public Enterprise Savings 6.6 7.2 4.6 5.6 11.5 9.5 Current Balance 3.6 7.8 2.0 3.4 19.8 15.1 Capital Receipts 11.2 10.2 3.8 2.7 13.6 4.0 Capital Expenditure 25.8 52.2 47.8 27.0 28.1 23.1 Overall Balance -11.0 -34.2 -42.0 -20.9 5.3 -4.0 Social Security Scheme Current Revenue 9.6 10.9 12.2 13.0 14.3 18.1 of which - Govt. arrears (2.6) (2.9) (3.7) (3.7) (2.4) (3.5) Current Expenditure 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.1 4.9 5.5 Current Balance 7.2 8.0 8.7 8.9 9.4 12.6 Capital Expenditure - 0.9 1.3 2.9 0.5 - Overall Balance 7.2 7.3 7.4 6.2 8.9 12.6 Financin (increase - -) -7.2 -7.3 -7.4 -6.2 -8.9 -12.6 Commercial Bank Deposits -1.4 -1.0 -0.2 -0.2 -2.3 -3.4 Central Government -5.4 -3.9 -5.4 -4.1 -3.6 -3.6 T. Bills (-0.5) (-0.9) (-1.7) (-0.1) (-0.6) (-) Debentures (-2.3) (-0.3) (-) (-0.3) (-0.5) (-0.1) Loans - - - - (-0.1) - Arrears on Contrib. (-2.6) (-2.9) (-3.7) (-3.7) (-2.4) (-3.5) Other -1.6 -2.4 -1.8 -1.9 -3.0 -5.6 - 33 - Page 2 of 3 Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR, 1980-1985 (Continued) (EC$ million) (prel. Est.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Medical Benefits Scheme Current Revenue 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.5 7.1 5.7 of which Govt. arrears (1.8) (1.8) (2.3) (2.4) (2.7) (2.6) Current Expenditure 4.0 3.4 4.4 5.0 5.7 6.4 Overall Balance 0.8 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.4 -0.7 Financing (increase - -) -0.8 -1.9 -1.7 -1.5 -1.4 0.7 Commercial Bank Deposits 0.3 -0.8 0.2 -0.2 -0.3 1.21/ Central Government -2.1 -1.9 -2.3 -2.4 -2.7 -2.3 Other 1.0 0.8 0.4 1.1 1.6 1.6 Port Authority Operating Revenue 3.9 5.3 7.0 6.5 6.8 9.7 operating Expenditures 3.2 4.2 5.6 5.8 6.1 7.8 Operating Surplus/Deficit 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.7 1.9 Capital Expenditure 0.7 0.5 1.5 1.3 2.0 0.6 Overall Surplus/Deficit - 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3 1.3 Financing - -0.6 0.1 0.7 1.3 -1.3 Foreign (net) - 0.3 - 0.9 0.9 n.a. Domestic (net) 0.1 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 n.a. Other -0.1 -0.6 - - 0.5 n.a. 11 An advance of 1.2 million was sublent to Government hospital. - 34 - Page 3 of 3 Table 4: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - CONSOLIDATED OPERATIONS OF THE PUBLIC SECTOR, 1980-1985 (Continued) (EC$ million) (prel. Est.) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Public Utilities Authority (y/e June) Operating Revenue 21.7 27.3 31.6 33.1 39.4 46.1 of which Govt. arrears (1.7) (1.9) (2.1) (2.2) (5.4) (7.2) Operating Expenditure 15.1 20.3 27.6 27.5 28.4 38.5 of which wages (2.2) (3.0) (5.2) (5.2) (7.2) (7.8) Operating Surplus/Deficit 6.6 7.0 4.0 5.6 11.0 7.6 Capital Revenue and Govt. Transfers - - - 5.9 3.3 - Capital Expenditure 0.1 22.9 4.4 7.9 7.6 8.5 Overall Surplus/Deficit b.5 -15.9 -0.4 3.6 6.7 -0.9 Financing -6.5 15.9 0.4 -3.6 -6.7 0.9 Foreign (net) - 21.1 -0.4 0.4 2.3 7.0 Domestic (net) 0.4 0.2 0.4 -1.0 -2.3 U.3 Govt. Arrears -1.7 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -5.4 -7.2 Other -5.2 -3.6 2.5 -0.8 -1.3 0.4 Central Marketiug Corporation (y/e August) Operating Revenue 3.7 5.4 4.3 6.6 8.8 8.1 Operating Expenditure 4.4 6.3 5.1 7.3 9.0 8.1 Operating Surplus/Deficit -0.7 -0.9 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 - Capital Revenue and Govt. Transfers 2.7 1.2 - - - Capital Expenditure 0.5 0.5 - - - Overall Balance 1.5 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 Financing -1.5 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 Banks (domestic) 0.1 - 0.2 0.2 0.1 I Other -1.6 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.1 Sources: Ministry of Finance, State enterprises and mission estimates. - 35 - Pap 1 of 2 Table Ss 5 TIOKW IN 1WA C3ITRL IIOsW 01%RTImS, 1984-1986 I (CEC ml 1 lon) 1982 1983 1984 pro. 1985 Budget 19S6 Cash ArreWr Acer. C"h Arrears Aer. Cab Artrea Ar. Cash Artears ADeo. Cash Arrrs Dec?. Dametio Curnt Rev" 93.6 - 93.6 87.8 - 8748 102.2 - 102.2 118.6 - 118.6 158.9 - 158.9 Current ExpwndIturas 89.3 17.3 106.6 85.0 15.1 100.1 91.1 7.3 105.4 107.6 17.3 124.9 146.7 - 146.7 Peti Eeulmnts 43.2 - 43.2 43.9 - 439 483 - 48.3 50.2 50.2 64.8 - 64.8 Eatabilshd (U4S) - (24S) (54) - (25.4) (27.3) I-) (27.3) (29.9) (.4 (29.9) (40.7) - (40.7) M-eatabllahsd (18,7) - (18.7) (ISSl) - (18.5) (21.0) I-) (21.0) (20.3) (-) (20.3) (24.) - (24.1) SocIal Security 3.7 3.7 - 3.7 3.7 1.6 2.4 4.0 0.6 3.5 4.1 3.2 - 3.2 Ibdlcal Beefits - 2.3 2.3 - 2.4 2.4 - 2J 2.5 - 2.6 2.5 tJ - 1.7 Antigua Pub. Utilities Auth. - 2.1 2.1 - 0.8 0.8 0.4 5.4 S - 7.2 7.2 3.0 - 3.0 Goods and Services 214 2.0 23.4 22.6 - 22.6 26.0 - 26.0 38.5 - 38.5 49.8 - 49.A Penlonse nd Grants 4.4 - 4.4 .S5 - SS 6.0 - 6.0 6.2 6.2 7.1 - 7.1 Interest a/ 18.5 7.2 25.7 10.7 8.2 18.9 12.9 -3.2 9.7 8.9 4.0 12.9 13.7 - 13.7 Foreign (11.6) (7.1) (18.7) (5.4) (7.0) (12.4) (S.9) (-4.S) (1.4) (1.7) (4.0) (5.7) (5.4) - (5.4) Doestic (6.9) (0.1) (7.0) (S.3) (1.2) (6.S) (7.0) (1.3) (8.3) (7.2) (-) (7.2) (8.3) - (8.3) Pubilc Sect4r Trsfers 03 0.3 0.2 - 0.2 0.4 - 0.4 1.1 - 1.1 0.8 _ 0.8 international Trnsfrs 1.2 - 1.2 15 - I.S IJ - 1.7 1.3 - 1.3 1.8 - 1.8 Private Sector Transfers 03 - 0.3 0.6 - 06 OA - 0.8 0.8 - 0.8 0.8 - 0.8 Current Accwt Balance 4.3 -17.3 -13.0 2.8 -IS.1 -12J3 4.1 -7.3 -3.2 11.0 17.3 6.3 12.2 - 12.2 Capital Rlipts -3.8 3.8 .7 - 17 10.5 - 10.4 2.2 - 2.2 I. S 11.5 Fixed lnvab.wnte 32.6 - 32.6 9.6 - 9.6 10.8 - 10.8 13.1 - 13.1 5.2 - 56.2 Purchased Land 8.0 8.0 0.8 - 08 35O/ - 3.5 0.9 - 0.9 2.5 - 25d Not Lending - - - 2.0 - 2.0 3.5 - 3.S -1.2 - -1.2 - Cap. Transfers to Pub. Sect. - - - 24.Sb - 24.5 33 - 33 - - -. Ovrall Deficit -32.5 -17.3 -49.8 -32.4 -15.1 -47.5 -6.5 -7 -13.8 0.4 -17.3 -16.9 -35.0 - -3S.O Financing 32.5 17M3 49.8 32.4 15.1 47.5 6.5 7.3 13.8 -0.4 17.3 16.9 35.0 - 35.0 Total Foreign Fin. (nat) 18.7 -2.9 15.8 24.7 -10.8 13.9 0.1 -11.1 -11.0 -2.7 -10.5 -13.2 18.5 - 18.S Drawings on Foreign Loas (22.5) - (22.5) (27.3) - (27.3) (5.4) (-) (SA) (-) (-) (-) (31.5) - (31.5) Chunge In Foreign Aseot (-0.1) - (-.1) (-0.1) - (-0.1) (0.1) I-) (0.1) (-0.2) (-) (0.2) (-) - (-) Amrt. of External Debt (-3.7) (-2.9) (-6.6) (-2.5)(-l0.8) (-133) (-5.4) (-1l.l)C-l6.5) (-2.5)(-10.5) (-13.0) (13.0) - (13.0) - 36 - Page 2 of 2 Teble Ss MTIGUA MM 9UUQA - CNElTM TOVENW VEUTIONS' 1982-1906 (Contd.) (EQI millions) 1982 1983 1984 Prel. 19a5 Budget 1186 Cash Arrerr Accr . C.sh Arrsts Acr, Cosh Arrear Mt. Cash Arrets Ac. Coah ArWre AMcr. Donatic Financlng (nrt) 13.8 - 13.8 7.7 - 7J 6.4 6.4 23 - 2.3 -o0 - -0.8 Corercli Banks (7.3) - (7.3) (9.9) - (9.9) (-12.4) t-) (-124) 2.2 t-) 22 - - - ECLO (2.0) - (2.0) (- C-) C-) (22.8) (-) 22.8) C-) C-) C-) - - Insurance Co. - - - - - - (-0.2) C-) (0.2) 1- C-) C-) (-0.) - (-0.8) Rest of Public Sector (1.9) - (1.9) (0.1) - (0.1) (1.2) C-) (1.2) (1.6) C-) (1.6)i/ - - - Other Privabt Sector (2.6) - (2.A) (-2.3) - (-2.3) (-5.0) C-) (-6.0) (-1.) (-) (-1.5) - - - Buildup of Arroars - 20.22 D.2 - 25.9 25.9 - 18.4 18.4 C-) 27.8 27.8 - 16.6 16.6f/ FaoreIg - (10.0) (10.0) - (17.8) (17.8) (-) (6A) (6.6) 1-) (14.5) (14.5) C-) C-) C-) Interest - /7.1/ /7.1/ - /7.0/ n.0/ /-4 /-4 /4.0/ 14/ - - - Amortization - /2.9/ 22.2Y - /10.8/ /10.8/ A1.11/ /11./ 10.4/ / /O1 testic - (10.2) (10.2) - (8.1) (8.1) (11.8) (11.8) C-) 13.3 13J C-) C-) C-) Rest of Public Sector - j8.1/ N.1/ - /8.1/ /8.1/ /11./ /11. 13.3 13J - - - Other 12.11 /2.1/ a/ Net of piaemnt of counbrpart deposits. b/ Comprisee transfer of proceds of loan from Trinidad and Tobago to ths ARA (EC83.9 ml II Ion) and transfer of Eximbnmk loans, previously In APUA's books, to the Central Goverunnt. c/ Includs pwrhos of land for D"p Bay Project (CEC2.7 million). d4 Purchase of land Deep By area. / Includes loans of ECII.2 mIlilon from Mdical Bnefits. f/ This Item has ben us as a residual. Source: Ministry of Finance, IW estimates sa mission oestimste*. - 37 - Table 6: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA: CENTRAL GOVERNMENT REVENUE (EC$ million) Prel. Budg. 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Domestic Current Revenue 93.6 87.8 102.2 118.6 158.9 Direct taxes 11.8 11.7 15.5 21.6 25.8 Income Tax 10.7 10.3 13.8 20.0 23.0 Of which: Corporation Tax (10.2) (9.7) (13.0) (19.3) (22.0) Property Tax 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.6 2.8 Indirect Taxes 56.9 58.9 67.3 76.8 101.8 Consumption taxesa/ 21.5 21.6 24.4 26.7 35.9 Import duties 18.8 18.3 22.0 26.2 30.0 Hotel and guest taxes 4.6 5.5 6.4 8.9 12.9 Travel tax 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.2 Embarkation tax 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.2 Telecommunication tax 1.2 1.9 1.7 2.4 3.0 Stamp duties 2.6 1.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 Foreign currency levy 3.4 3.8 3.6 1.8 4.0 Other 3.2 3.9 3.9 4.7 8.6 Nontax revenue 24.9 17.6 19.4 20.2 31.3 Currency profits 2.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 3.0 US bases 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 Licenses and fees 2.3 1.8 3.2 6.3 9.2 Post Office revenueb/ 4.7 1.6 1.5 1.9 2.7 Interest earned on counterpart external deposits 8.9 4.7 3.4 - - Other 2.1 2.3 6.9 6.2 12.2 Capital receipts 3.8 1.7 10.5 2.2 11.5 Sales of government assets 0.9 1.0 8.4c/ 0.4 1.0 UK Devrelopment Aid 1.2 0.4 1.3 0.7 2.5 CIDA grants ... 0.1 0.1 - - USAID 1.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.7 Other 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 7.3 Memorandum item Current revenues excluding interest earned on counterpart external deposits 84.7 83.1 98.8 118.6 158.9 a/ Includes surcharge. / Includes philatelic sales. c/ Includes 8.1 million from sale of Halcyon Reef Hotel. Sources: Ministry of Finance; Treasury, IMF staff estimates and mission estimates. - 38 - Page I of 3 Table 7s MTI6UA AND RA6M - PUELIC SCTOR CAPITAL PIIITUE, 1984-1988 (EC '000) 1964 1985 1986 197 1988 Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Lecal Total Ext. Local OMNGOI Agrioculture Agri. Input Revolv. Fuad 40 - 40 117 - 117 117 - 117 117 - 117 117 - 117 Land Davelopmnt 16 - 16 54 - 594 Agri. Equip. - Sugar Corp. 600600 - Penut Project 72 - n2 123 - 123 Llvetock Inprovant 497 35S 13S 650 477 173 650 477 173 Agri. Prod.-Tewln Counterpart 4S - 49 103 - 103 Laboratory Extension 243 - 243 457 - 457 Cotton Industry Project 90 - SO 360 - 360 1364 1364 Rehab. of Agri. - Livestock 90 90 - 10 10 - FIsherIes Industry Oeelopgnt 751 751 Sugar Industry 70 - 70 200 - 200 Industry Extension of Factory Shella 75 75 Factory Shell ConatructIon 470 - 470 1896 - 1896 2745 - 2745 TouwIan Handicraft Centre 224 224 - Guest hos - Brb 18170 1350 520 510 - 510 510 - 510 Engllsh Htbor Study 86 86 - e"p say Hotel Project 15915 15306 609 79039 765A 2513 61217 61217 Nelsnes ockyard Infrast. 70 70 - Traupot FIre Fighting Equlp.-Oerbuds 150 150 - Navigational Aide - AlIport 869 S69 - Port Authority - Capital Exp. 610 - 610 So - S5 Telecom. Equip. - CoolIdge 774 774 - laWovo_mbnts Barbuda AIrport 50 - 50 Raiy Reaus aclng 2984 2984 - Road RecntructIon 5W0 5000 - 2002000 AIrport Anclillary Infrast. 1163 - 1163 - 39 - Pago 2 of 5 Table h ANTIGLA AND IRBU - PUILIC SECtOR CAPITAL EWNDIUf, 1984-19868 (Contd.) (EC$ '000) 1984 1985 198$ 1987 1968 Total Ext. Local Totol Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Totbl Ext. Local UtilIty Servlces Deeeilnatlon Plant 1050 IOSO - 4128 4128 - 111472 111472 - Ceaatde Garden Generators 2565 2565 - Wind Power Project 151 151 - Eourgency Relief - arging 1691 1291 400 Water Supply Expanslon 3300 2300 1000 5100 3500 ISO 80 6000 2500 Casade Garden Drainage SOO - 600 600 - 600 Stanndby Generatora - Barbuda 1000 1000 - Telephone Expansion I 1000 1000 - Telephone Expension II 30200 27000 3200 vater Distribution II 3124 3324 - 2328 228 - Education Construction of Classroom 9 - 59 143 - 143 Urllngs School 228 - 228 190 190 - BasIc Needs Trust Fund 2D2 202 - 729 729 - 1877 1877 - Renovatlon of Otters School 362 - 362 68 - 68 St. Jolms Al IAge School 80 - OD Reconstr. Clare Hall School 36 36 979 979 - 228 228 - New St. Johns Priory 132 - 132 Heath Vehicles - Health 534 - 334 964 - 964 Holberton Hopltal - Othter 05 - 105 W - 23 87 - i7 Mental Hoepital 117 - 117 Holberton Hoep. - Chi Id Wtard 90 - 900 278 - 278 56 - SS Heal th & Fanily Llfe Unit S6 26 25 Family Planning Project 79 79 - 175 175 - Recreation Area uWrovamat 328 - 35 16 - 16 Amninistratlon Treasury Conputer 350 350 362 - 362 85 - 8S Independence Arch 93 - 93 MInIstry of Flatnce Bldg. 13X - 136 377 - 377 80 - 80 Courthouee Retlbllltation 200 110 90 Govt. Bldg.. Renovation 350 - 350 57 - 57 943 - 943 Nftw LgIslatIve Bldg. 22 - 22 4 - 4 Gowenmnt Prlntery 70 70 - S35 535 - 725 72S - Social Security Bldg. SDO 500 - 40 -Po3 of 3 Table 7 ArITIGUA AM RalDA - PUBLl £CTOR ClTA EL lTUIE, 19S4-1911dC (Ctd.) (ECS 000) 1984 1985 1S96 t987 I9S" Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Total Ext. Local Ml I lanaou AEDS Equity Inv./Global Cr. 16 16 - 498 48 - Low Inon HouwIng - A088 102 - 1825 6S0 - 600 H"uaIng - Chlpen S49 - 849 3900 - 380 1000 - 1000 lO00 - I0O0 Land & Building Purctasee 3500 - 35S0 1246 - 1246 590 - 5s0 Fwudlng SchIe 3876 3876 2219 - 2219 Fire & Rescue Equlpanat 2897 - 2897 Police Vehicl 222 - 222 Other Sndry CapItal Exp. 1355 67 1289 427 - 427 Total (milIlon) 22.8 12.2 OA 42.3 24.6 17.7 188.8 156.3 27.3 179.9 176. 3.1 1.3 - 1.3 Total Control Boveriwant (million) 14.3 4. 8.5 14. 1, 12.1 54.3 41.4 12.9 7.2 4.1 3S 1.3 - 1.3 Agrlcul ture Llveatock Devltopmnt II 1927 1619 308 1033 868 165 782 657 125 torn-6orghum Pilot Rea.rch 451 451 - GoatVShaep Farming 464 44 - Li"stock Induatry 11 1244 1120 124 1245 1121 124 Snal F Farirs Irrigatlbn 1485 1350 135 1485 1350 135 Tour I a Engi lah Harbor Park Proj. 4200 4200 - 4200 4200 - St. Johns Devalopmat 7800 - tS00 5000 - 3mg Transport AIrport Taxlway gm0G 500 - 9500 9500 Air Traffic Centrol Rader 54W 50o Road Reconetructlon II 2W0 2M0 - 6000 6000 Utl II ty Sarvlca wrbuda ElectrIcity 756 tSS Eleetticity Dlstrlbutln 3150 3150 - 6300 6300 EducatIon Rehab. BoaenleI School 1323 1323 MlacaleI u Police Radlcs 567 567 IOTA. DEWPAOJECtS (Mllllan - - - - - - 5.1 4.8 0.3 36.2 23.0 8.2 34.5 29 7 5.4 TOTAL 11 P8I0ECTS (mIllIon) 22.6 12.2 20.4 42.3 24.6 17.7 18S.9 161.3 27.6 216.1 24.A 11.3 35.8 29.1 6.7 OtDOM GOilEIT (IMl eIn) 143 4.8 8.5 14.0 l8 12.1 56.2 43.0 13.2 28.5 25.0 3.5 30. 29.1 1.7 - 41 - Table 8: ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA - SUMMARY OF EXTEkNA~ DEBT ______________ _1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 (millions of US$) Gross Principal (utst.1/ 44.5 74.3 79.0 80.8 51.0 64.9 Counterpart Dep. Abroad 11.1 27.6 27.5 27.3 - - Net Principal Outstanding 33.4 46.7 51.5 53.5 51.0 64.9 Cum. Arrears Outstanding 2.4 4.0 8.5 15.0 18.6 27.8 Principal 1.4 1.7 3.1 7.1 12.0 16.9 Interest 1.0 2.3 5.4 7.9 6.6 10.9 Gross Debt (including interest arrears) 45.5 76.6 84.4 88.7 57.6 75.8 Debt Service Obligations 6.7 7.0 10.6 10.2 7.4 11.0 Amortization 3.7 2.8 3.O 5.4 b.3 5.9 Interest 3.0 4.2 7.6 4.8 1.1 5.1 (in percent of GOP) Net Principal Outstanding 31.3 39.2 39.5 37.1 31.7 36.5 Cumulative Arrears 2.3 3.4 6.5 1U.4 11.6 15.6 Principal 1.3 1.4 2.4 4.9 7.5 9.5 Interest 1.0 2.0 4.1 5.5 4.1 6.1 Gross Debt 42.7 64.4 64.7 61.6 35.8 42.6 (in percent of exports of goods and services) Debt Service 6.3 b.5 9.3 9.2 5.0 8.9 Amortization 3.5 2.6 2.6 4.9 4.3 4.8 Interest 2.8 3.9 6.7 4.3 o.7 4.1 (in percent of current revenues of consolidated public sector and public enterprise savings) Debt Service 22.8 19.7 25.9 26.1 15.7 20.6 Amortization 12.6 7.9 7.3 13.8 13.4 11.1 Interest 10.2 11.3 18.6 12.3 2.3 9.5 / Excludes private debt and official debt with ECCB. - 42 - Table 9: MfTIGUA AND BARBUDA - PROJECTIONS Of ET ERVICEl/ (US$ millions) 19S6 1987 1988 1989 1990 hwt. lot. Total Aut. lnt. Total hArt. lnt. Total krwt. lnt. Total Amrt. tnt. Total Groca Exterwl Oebt 7.0 9.5 16.5 16.1 10.0 26.1 30.2 11.7 41.9 15.1 7.6 22.7 15.1 6.6 21.7 C0ntfal GOsormont 3.7 3.4 7.1 0.7 2.7 3.4 2.3 2.7 5.0 2.3 2.5 4.8 2.3 2.4 4.7 Official 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.7 Cmrclal 3.2 3.2 6.A 0.2 2.5 2.7 1.8 2.5 4,3 1 .8 2.3 4.1 1.8 2.2 4.0 Govormvnt Guaranteed 3.3 6.1 9.4 15.4 7.3 22.7 27.9 9.0 36.9 12.8 5.1 17.9 12.8 4.2 17.0 Official 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 Cantclal 3.1 6.0 9.7 15.1 7.1 22.2 27.7 8.8 36.5 12.5 4.9 17.4 12.5 4.0 16.5 - 43 - Table 10: ANTlGUA AND BARBUDA - TOURISM (EC$ million) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 Stayover Visitors 97901 95755 97335 113053 141567 152641 By air 86571 84724 87042 1U1113 129149 139726 Seal/ 1133U 11031 10293 11940 12418 12915 Cruise Passengers 107094 113357 66768 51987 b6808 100839 (in number of days) Average Length of Stay Yacht 9.5 10.0 1U.2 10.2 10.8 10.8 Hotel 6.8 7.0 7.3 7.3 8.0 8.0 Private Residence 7.7 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.7 8.7 (In US4) Average Expen. per day Yacht 18.40 21.70 23.20 23.70 25.U0 Z6.UU Hotel 7U.70 83.50 89.30 91.U0 96.1U 99.80 Private Residence 17.70 20.90 22.30 22.7U 24.u( 24.9u Cruise Ship 26.UU 25.00 24.0U 24.60 25.90 Z6.90 (In millions US*) Total Expenditure 38.6 44.9 49.5 58.8 90.0 101.6 Yacht 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.4 3.6 Hotel 3U.8 35.7 40.9 49.7 79.4 89.2 Private Residence 3.1 4.0 4.5 4.9 5.4 6.1 Cruise Ship 2.7 2.8 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.7 (%) Annual Changes Stayover visitors -1.6 -2.2 1.7 16.2 25.2 7.8 Cruise passengers 52.4 5.9 -41.1 -22.1 28.5 5U.9 Total Expenditures 12.6 16.3 10.2 18.8 53.1 12.9 1/ Mainly on yachts. Source: Antigua Department of Tourism, IMF staff estimates and mission estimates. - 44 - Table lit ANTIGUA AMD BARBUDA, COST OF LIVING INDEX Alcoholic Household Food Beverages Clothing Operations All and and Hous- Util- and Trane- and Mis- Items Beverages Tobacco Ing Itles Accessories portatlon cellaneous Weights 1,000.0 428.8 56.0 233.2 5S.S 74.7 100.0 71.7 (1969-100) Period averege 1978 270.5 325.5 243.3 177.2 226.9 291.9 269.4 270.1 1979 314.2 367.2 289.7 190.5 315.9 322.8 385.0 301.6 1980 374.4 431.2 339.3 230.6 448.4 365.2 454.1 360.8 1981 417.3 485.6 380.7 250.0 475.2 426.6 495.0 410.1 1982 434.7 503.8 385.3 255.1 495.5 480.9 497.9 450.9 1983 444.9 513.4 396.6 255.7 495.7 511.2 497.9 492.0 1984 462.3 542.8 404.9 261.9 495.7 542.3 497.9 499.9 1985 466.5 554.8 409.7 259.9 496.S 524.7 514.4 490.5 End of period 1970 284.5 350.9 251.1 177.4 230.9 293.7 276.9 295.5 1979 339.0 390.2 317.5 207.6 368.6 349.2 410.0 338.7 1980 400.4 468.2 355.6 239.2 463.8 388.1 486.1 386.7 1981 428.5 500.5 380.7 258.0 474.7 436.9 497.9 436.5 1982 436.6 499.5 387.9 250.5 495.7 539.5 497.9 452.0 1983 452.3 525.8 387.2 258.1 495.7 529.1 497.9 499.7 1984 469.4 557.3 417.0 262.5 495.7 534.9 497.9 515.2 1985 459.8 546.9 381.2 251.5 495.7 S05.8 514.4 503.9 (Percentage Change) Period average 1978 6.2 6.2 6.2 5.1 5.5 2.7 5.5 12.2 1979 16.2 12.8 19.1 7.5 39.2 10.6 42.9 11.7 1980 19.2 17.4 17.1 21.1 42.0 13.1 18.1 19.6 1981 11.5 12.6 12.2 8.4 6.0 16.8 8.9 13.7 1982 4.2 4.4 1.2 2.0 4.3 12.5 0.6 10.1 1983 2.3 1.9 2.9 0.2 - 6.3 - 9.1 1984 3.9 5.7 2.1 2.4 - 6.1 - 1.6 1985 0.9 2.2 1.2 -0.8 0.2 -3.2 3.3 -1.9 End of period 1978 6.5 5.9 8.1 5.2 3.5 -- 5.7 25.9 1979 19.2 11.2 26.4 17.0 59.6 18.9 48.1 14.6 1980 18.1 20.0 12.0 15.2 25.8 11.1 18.6 14.2 1981 7.0 6.9 7.1 7.9 2.4 12.6 2.5 12.9 1982 4.1 3.8 2.4 -2.7 4.4 22.9 -- 5.4 1983 3.6 5.3 -0.2 3.0 - -1.9 - 10.6 1984 3.8 6.0 7.7 1.7 - 1.1 - 3.1 1985 -2.0 -1.9 -8.6 -4.2 - -5.4 3.3 -2.2 Sourcess Ministry of FlnanCe (Statistics Dlvislon). ANTIGUA C-f. P,1 $0 6 Afb,~~~~~~~~~~ S.-t~~~~~'Q . FtJ-~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. 1-a^t O)-1-e rs 2 a- S tt IOHN?S T a $ \ ! 0- z wS ~~~~~~T P E T E R t._~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ABD bt,,, ,, p.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~, 1,14, ,,,, f // \ ,% =_ S T P Htl I PN 4 11,1.4 F,, P,,,- __2 n*, | ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~ T M A R Y S4 T DI ( P A U L ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ -MoinRoods 106dc P- BewK…Fru Bses 0 2 * 6 1700 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Owhld SAdWI MA1..L. > -tOO' £. 170o0y m t = ^ _t ,#= w=i * _~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ -s ., # - -- '6' 0 _