Africa Region 101130 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The Africa Climate Business Plan AFRICA REGION Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development The Africa Climate Business Plan © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved 1 2 3 4 18 17 16 15 This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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Contents Foreword ix Overview xi Acknowledgments xix Abbreviations xxi PART A  Context and Rationale 1 1 Africa’s Development and Climate Agenda 3 Note9 2 Scaling up World Bank Support to Climate Action in Africa 11 Foundation of the Business Plan 11 Structure of the Business Plan 14 Selecting Priority Areas for Strengthening Resilience 15 PART B  Strengthening the Resilience of Africa’s Assets 19 B1: Natural Capital 21 3 Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture 21 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 22 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 24 Expected Outcomes 26 Financing Plan 26 Key Partners 26 Notes27 4 Creating Climate-Resilient Landscapes 29 4.1  Forested Landscapes 31 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 31 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 32 Expected Outcomes 34 Climate-Related Benefits 34 Financing Plan 34 Key Partners 35 4.2 The African Resilient Landscape Initiative 36 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 36 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 37 Expected Outcomes 38 Climate-Related Benefits 39 Financing Plan 39 Key Partners 40 Notes40 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development iii 5 Promoting Integrated Watershed Management 41 5.1  Niger River Basin 42 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 42 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 43 Expected Outcomes 44 Climate-Related Benefits 44 Financing Plan 44 Key Partners 45 5.2  Lake Chad Basin 47 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 47 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 49 Expected Outcomes 50 Climate-Related Benefits 50 Financing Plan 50 Key Partners 51 5.3  Zambezi River Basin 52 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 52 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 53 Expected Outcomes 54 Climate-Related Benefits 55 Financing Plan 55 Key Partners 56 5.4  Lake Victoria Basin 57 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 57 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 59 Climate-Related Benefits 61 Expected Outcomes 61 Financing Plan 62 Key Partners 62 6 Fostering Climate-Smart Ocean Economies in Africa 65 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 67 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 67 Expected Outcomes 68 Climate-Related Benefits 69 Financing Plan 69 Key Partners 70 Notes70 B2: Physical Capital 71 7 Developing Climate-Smart Cities 71 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 72 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 73 Expected Outcomes 77 Climate-Related Benefits 77 Financing Plan 77 Key Partners 78 iv Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 8 Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Coastal Zones in West Africa 79 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 80 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 81 Expected Outcomes 83 Climate-Related Benefits 83 Financing Plan 83 Key Partners 83 Notes84 B3: Human Capital 85 9 Boosting Social Protection 85 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 86 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 87 Expected Outcomes 88 Climate-Related Benefits 89 Financing Plan 90 Key Partners 90 10 Addressing Drivers of Migration 91 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 92 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 93 Expected Outcomes 97 Climate-Related Benefits 97 Financing Plan 97 Key Partners 98 PART C  POWERING RESILIENCE 99 11 Increasing the Use of Solar Power 101 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 102 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 102 Expected Outcomes 104 Climate-Related Benefits 104 Financing Plan 104 Key Partners 105 12 Increasing the Use of Hydropower 107 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 108 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 108 Expected Outcomes 109 Climate-Related Benefits 109 Financing Plan 110 Key Partners 110 13 Increasing the Use of Geothermal Power 111 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 112 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 112 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development v Expected Outcomes 113 Climate-Related Benefits 113 Financing Plan 113 Key Partners 113 PART D Enabling Resilience 115 14 Strengthening Africa’s Hydro-Meteorological Program 117 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 118 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 119 Expected Outcomes 120 Climate-Related Benefits 121 Financing Plan 122 Key Partners 122 15 Establishing an Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility 123 Sectoral Background and Development Challenges 124 Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience 125 Expected Outcomes 126 Climate-Related Benefits 127 Financing Plan 127 Key Partners 128 PART E  Making It Happen 129 16 Financing Plan 131 17 Results Framework 135 18 Organizational Arrangements 137 References 139 Boxes O.1 Assumptions Used in Estimating Sources of Financing of the Africa Climate Business Plan xv 1.1 How are Climate-Related Shocks Affecting African Cities? 6 2.1 Supporting Climate-Resilient Development through Regional Partnerships 12 2.2 Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Support to Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Examples 12 3.1 Increasing African Food Security While Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Climate-Smart Agriculture 23 7.1 Developing Bus Rapid Transport Systems in Lagos 76 8.1 Increasing the Resilience of the Road System in Morocco 82 9.1 Responding to Crises and Building Resilience in Ethiopia 89 10.1 Drought, Migration, and the Seeds of Conflict 93 18.1 The World Bank Group’s Approach to Country Engagement 137 vi Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figures 1.1 GDP Growth and Agriculture Growth in Senegal (1990–2014) 5 1.2 Projected Effect of Current Pledges and Policies on Increases in Average Global Temperature, 1990–2100 5 1.3 Projected Changes in Hydropower Revenues as a Result of Climate Change 7 1.4 Financing Required to Support Africa’s Climate Adaptation Agenda 8 2.1 IDA Commitments to Africa in Selected Sectors, by Type of Financing 14 2.2 Sources of Climate Vulnerability Across African Countries, 2013 16 Maps 1.1 Climate-Related Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa 4 2.1 Vulnerability to Climate Change, by Country 15 Tables O.1 Fast-track and Longer-term Financing Required to Implement the Africa Climate Business Plan, by Component xiii O.2 Financing Sources for the Fast-track Phase of the Africa Climate Business Plan xiv O.3 Fast-track and Longer-term Indicators of Headline Outcomes (Provisional) xvii 2.1 Components of the Strengthening Resilience Cluster of the Africa Climate Business Plan 17 2.2 Cut-Off Dates for Fast-Track and Longer-Term Phases of the Africa Climate Business Plan 18 3.1 Support to Climate-Smart Agriculture: At-a-Glance Summary 22 3.2 Support to Climate-Smart Agriculture: Resource Mobilization Plan 26 4.1 Support to Forests and to Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+): At-a-Glance Summary 32 4.2 Support to Forests and to Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+): Resource Mobilization Plan 35 4.3 Support to Climate-Resilient Landscapes: At-a-Glance Summary 37 4.4 Support to Climate-Resilient Landscapes: Resource Mobilization Plan 39 5.1 Support to the Niger River Basin: At-a-Glance Summary 43 5.2 Support to the Niger Basin: Resource Mobilization Plan 45 5.3 Support to the Lake Chad Basin: At-a-glance Summary 48 5.4 Support to the Lake Chad Basin: Resource Mobilization Plan 51 5.5 Support to the Zambezi River Basin Program: At-a-Glance Summary 53 5.6 Support to the Zambezi River Basin Program: Resource Mobilization Plan 56 5.7 Support to the Lake Victoria Basin Program: At-a-Glance Summary 58 5.8 Support to Lake Victoria Basin Program: Resource Mobilization Plan 62 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development vii 6.1 Support to Climate-Smart Ocean Economies: At-a-Glance Summary 66 6.2 Support to Climate-smart Ocean Economies: Resource Mobilization Plan 69 7.1 Support to Climate-Smart Cities: At-a-Glance Summary 72 7.2 Number of Cities to be Supported by Proposed Program for Creating Climate-Smart Cities 73 7.3 Typology of African Cities 73 7.4 Support to Climate-Smart Cities: Resource Mobilization Plan 78 8.1 Support to Addressing Coastal Erosion in West Africa: At-a-Glance Summary 80 8.2 Support to Addressing Coastal Erosion in West Africa: Resource Mobilization Plan 84 9.1 Support to Social Protection Programs: At-a-Glance Summary 86 9.2 Support to Social Protection Programs: Resource Mobilization Plan 90 10.1 Support to Addressing Drivers of Migration: At-a-Glance Summary 92 10.2 Support to Addressing Drivers of Migration: Resource Mobilization Plan 98 11.1 Support to Solar Power: At-a-Glance Summary 102 11.2 Support to Solar Power: Resource Mobilization Plan 104 12.1 Support to Hydropower: At-a-Glance Summary 108 12.2 Support to Hydropower: Resource Mobilization Plan 110 13.1 Support to Geothermal Energy: At-a-glance Summary 112 13.2 Support to Geothermal Energy: Resource Mobilization Plan 114 14.1 Support to the Hydro-Met Program: At-a-Glance summary 118 14.2 Support to the Hydro-Met Program: Resource Mobilization Plan 122 15.1 Support to the Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility: At-a-Glance Summary 124 15.2 Support to the Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility: Resource Mobilization Plan 127 16.1 Funding Required to Implement the Africa Climate Business Plan 131 16.2 Financing Sources for the Fast-track Phase of the Africa Climate Business Plan, 2016–20 132 17.1 Results Framework for the Africa Climate Business Plan 135 18.1 World Bank Global Practice Responsible for Each Component of the Africa Climate Business Plan 138 viii Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Foreword The 21st session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention (COP21), which takes place in Paris in December 2015, has the ambition of reaching an agreement on climate change that would limit global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels. For Africa, more than any other region of the world, the outcome of these climate negotiations is of vital importance. The reason is simple. While Africa is the region that contributes the least to greenhouse gas emissions, African countries suffer the most from the impact of climate change. From the Sahel to the Horn of Africa, to the south of the continent and the small island nations, African countries are experiencing first-hand the devastating effects of more extreme weather patterns. In West Africa, for instance, where climate change scenarios suggest an increase in the frequency and intensity of tidal waves and storm surge, a potential sea-level rise of one meter would cause the loss of 18,000 km2 of land, ultimately magnifying the damage to infrastruc- ture and causing the displacement of populations. There is an inextricable link between Africa’s climate and development agendas. For example, we cannot separate agriculture and food security from climate change. A 1.5°C to 2°C increase in temperature by the 2030s and 2040s will lead to a 40 to 80 percent reduction in the area of land suitable for growing maize, millet and sorghum, the main staple foods in Africa. Research also shows strong evidence linking climate change to human conflicts. Unless bold and decisive action is taken, climate variability and change will jeopardize or reverse Africa’s hard-won development achievements and its aspirations for further growth and poverty reduction. Increasingly frequent droughts, floods, and cyclones threaten to drive Africans into poverty and create inescapable poverty traps. The correlation between climate, economic growth and poverty is well established, won’t disappear, and will only grow stronger. Adaptation to the effects of climate change is an enormous challenge. The costs of adaptation are staggering and will only continue to rise. Consider this: while the needs currently amount to $5–10 billion per year (in order to adapt to a 2°C warming), they could be as high as $20–50 billion around mid- century, and close to $100 billion in case of a 4°C warming. Unfortunately, the volume of climate finance flowing to Africa pales in comparison with the needs. Current levels of funding for adaptation in Africa amount to at most $3 billion per year, which is negligible considering the needs. Fortunately, there is also some good news. On the issue of climate change, African leaders are speaking with one voice and transforming challenges into opportunities. The fact is that the continent is uniquely positioned to build resilience by betting on renewable sources of energy (plentiful in Africa) to bring power to its people, schools, health centers and businesses. For African governments, promoting climate-smart agriculture is also a priority. There is  a range of agricultural management solutions, which can improve crop Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development ix productivity, enhance resilience to climate shocks and reduce carbon emissions. Delivering this triple win is essential to addressing Africa’s food ­ security agenda. To help Africa deliver on its promises, the World Bank has prepared an Africa Climate Business Plan which will boost the region’s ability to adapt to the changing climate while reducing greenhouse emissions through a number of concrete actions. Implementation of the Plan will enhance Africa’s efforts to strengthen, power and enable resilience. The ambition of the Plan is to raise $16 billion in climate finance by 2020, $5.7 billion of which is from IDA, and the rest from a variety of sources, including bilateral and multilateral sources, dedicated climate finance sources, and the private sector. The Africa Climate Business Plan will contribute to the World Bank Group’s efforts to increase the share of its own financing dedi- cated to climate action—adaptation and mitigation—by one-third by 2020. While this Plan is arguably only a partial contribution to meet Africa’s financial needs for climate action, it is a meaningful one. The World Bank Group looks forward to working with African governments, Africa’s develop- ment partners and the private sector to implement the activities included in the Plan. By galvanizing climate action, deploying expertise and mobilizing financing, together we can support Africa in its quest for a greener and more resilient future. Makhtar Diop Vice President, Africa Region, The World Bank x Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Overview Africa’s climate and development agendas are inextricably linked: if unad- dressed, climate variability and change will jeopardize Africa’s hard-won development achievements and its aspirations for further growth and poverty reduction. Climate drivers are involved in most of the shocks that keep or push African households into poverty. They include natural disasters (such as loss of assets and disability after floods), health shocks (such as health expen- ditures and lost labor income as a result of malaria), crop losses (as a result of drought or crop disease), and food price shocks. It is estimated that floods affected more than 1 million people in African cities between 1997 and 2008. Climate-related factors will make poverty reduction ever more challenging in the future, for three reasons. First, warming on the order of 1.5°C–1.75°C above preindustrial levels is virtually unavoidable, as a result of past emissions of greenhouse gases. This warming (which could well be higher for parts of Africa) will cause loss of cropland, reduce crop production and fish catches, worsen undernourishment, and increase the risk of drought. Second, as a result of the persisting gap between global pledges for climate mitigation and the abatement efforts needed to control further climate change, there is a considerable risk that further warming will materialize. If existing policies are not scaled up to attain the abatement targets that countries formulated in the lead-up to the Paris climate summit in December 2015, ­ warming could approach, or even exceed, 3°C above preindustrial times. Such an increase would have disastrous consequences for Sub-Saharan African. Warming in the range of 3°C–4°C above preindustrial temperatures would result in heat extremes affecting the vast majority of the continent’s land area, heightened risks of extreme drought (particularly in southern Africa), sharp increases in the rate of crop failure (up to every other year in southern Africa), a 20 percent reduction in the yields of major staple crops, and, by the end of the century, flooding that would affect up to 18 million people a year. Third, regardless of whether warming is contained below 2°C or exceeds that threshold, Africa will face considerable uncertainty regarding the effects of warming on local weather patterns and hydrological cycles. For every scenario for greenhouse gas concentration and associated warming, there is ­ considerable uncertainty about the response of precipitation, run-off, ground- water recharge, and so forth. This uncertainty creates formidable challenges for development planning and the design of projects related to water manage- ment (irrigation, hydropower, water supply, flood control) and climate-­ sensitive infrastructure (for example, roads and bridges). Given the threats posed by current climate shocks—and the even greater challenges linked to future climate change—the gap between needs and resource flows needed to scale up the continent’s resilience to an increasingly hostile climate is alarming. Current levels of funding for adaptation in Africa are estimated to be on the order of $3 billion a year. Based on figures from the Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xi World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), Africa needs to spend $5–$10 billion a year today to adapt to a 2°C warming, $20–$50 billion to do so around midcentury, and close to $100 billion if warming increases by 4°C. The Africa Climate Business Plan represents the World Bank’s contribution to reducing the funding gap, which the Bank will do by deploying technical expertise, mobilizing financing from various sources, and facilitating the engagement of stakeholders on climate action. The plan’s emphasis is on adaptation, which is consistent with the priorities expressed by Africa’s Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). Of the 44 INDCs African countries submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as of October 2015, 28 (63 percent) included an estimate of the financing needs for adaptation—a much higher figure than for the rest of the world (27 percent). The plan supports the World Bank Group’s overall goals to end extreme poverty by 2030 and promote shared prosperity in the developing world. Recent World Bank analysis (World Bank 2015b) indicates that climate change could push up to 43 million additional Africans below the poverty line by 2030—a stark reminder of the vital role enhancing climate resilience plays in poverty reduction. The plan reflects contributions and inputs by a wide variety of partners with whom the Bank is already collaborating on the ground in an effort to increase Africa’s resilience to climate variability and change. The initiatives included reflect dialogue held with African countries by the International Development Association (IDA), which will leverage as much as possible the support of other parts of the World Bank Group (e.g., IBRD, IFC and MIGA). The plan aims to raise awareness of and accelerate resource mobilization for priority climate-resilient and low-carbon initiatives in Africa. It focuses on a dozen or so priority areas, clustered in three groups, where the World Bank, in collaboration with African governments and a variety of regional and international partners, expects to help achieve results in the near future. The plan contributes to meeting the World Bank Group’s corporate objective of increasing the share of its financing for climate change by one-third (from 21 percent to 28 percent) by 2020. The first cluster of the plan (“strengthening resilience”) includes selected initiatives aimed at boosting the resilience of the continent’s assets. These ini- tiatives comprise Africa’s natural capital (landscapes, forests, agricultural land, inland water bodies, and oceans, with a special focus on small island developing states); physical capital (cities and physical assets in coastal areas, including roads and other infrastructure); and human and social capital (including improving social protection against climate shocks for the more vulnerable and addressing the climate-related drivers of migration, in order to mitigate the effects of climate shocks on social cohesion). The second cluster (“powering resilience”) relates to opportunities for scal- ing up low-carbon energy sources in Africa. In addition to helping mitigate climate change, these activities yield considerable resilience benefits. Societies with adequate access to energy are less vulnerable to climate shocks, because xii Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development when power becomes more accessible, irrigation systems can be activated in times of drought, early warning systems and telecommunication systems can be deployed before and after natural disasters, alternative revenue-generating activities can be undertaken, health services can be provided more easily, study hours can be extended (contributing to better education), and so forth. The third cluster (“enabling resilience”) provides data, information, and  decision-making tools for promoting climate-resilient development across sectors by strengthening the region’s hydro-meteorological systems at the regional and county level and building the capacity to plan and design climate-resilient investments. This plan is a living document that may be updated and expanded in the coming months to cover other areas not addressed in this version, such as health and transport, which the Bank is well positioned to support through sector dialogue and financial and technical assistance. A preliminary assessment by World Bank staff estimates that implementing the Africa Climate Business Plan will require about $16.1 billion in the period 2016–2020 (table O.1) to achieve the outcomes described in this document Table O.1  Fast-track and Longer-term Financing Required to Implement the Africa Climate Business Plan, by Component ($ million) Component Fast track (2016–20) Longer term (by 2024) I. Strengthening Resilience 10,363 13,490 Natural Capital Climate-smart agriculture 3,000 2,000 Climate-resilient landscapes 1,605 1,605 Integrated watershed management 2,967 6,100 (Niger, Chad, Zambezi, Lake Victoria) Ocean economies 220 280 Physical Capital Climate smart cities 1,025 1,025 Coastal resilience (West Africa) 450 550 Human and Social Capital Social protection 480 960 Migration drivers 616 970 II. Powering Resilience 5,398 7,402 Solar 3,240 4,760 Hydropower 1,208 792 Geothermal 950 1,850 III. Enabling Resilience 320 380 Africa hydro-met program 270 280 Africa climate resilient investment facility 50 100 Total 16,081 21,272 Note: The fast-track phase assumes resource mobilization by June 2020 (end of IDA18) and generation of outcomes by June 2023 (end of IDA 19). The longer-term phase assumes resource mobilization up to December 2024 (mid-term of IDA 20) and generation of outcomes by June 2026 (end of IDA20). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xiii Table O.2  Financing Sources for the Fast-track Phase of the Africa Climate Business Plan Amount Source ($ million) International Development Association (IDA) 5,683 Climate finance (Climate Investment Funds, Green Climate Fund, 2,227 Global Environment Facility, and so forth) Other development finance (bilaterals, multilaterals) 1,979 Private sector 3,515 Domestic sources 703 To be determined 1974 Total 16,081 and exemplified in table O.3. The business plan also defines results that could be achieved in the longer term (up to 2026), at an estimated cost of about $21.3 billion. About $5.6 billion of the financing of the plan’s fast-track phase could come from national and regional IDA programs, $2.2 billion from var- ious climate finance instruments, $1.9 billion from the rest of the develop- ment community, and $3.5 billion form the private sector, leaving almost $2 billion still to be found (table O.2). The activities included in the pan are of a “pipeline” nature: they have not yet been approved by the governing bodies of the relevant financiers (although in several cases project preparation process is nearing completion). Box O.1 spells out the assumptions used to estimate financing. By providing an organizing framework for different World Bank teams and their partners around a platform of concrete activities that will improve resil- ience, the Africa Climate Business Plan will help achieve results in the follow- ing areas: •• Resource mobilization. Two indicators will assess resource mobilization. The first is the share of resources in the total financing plan that are mobi- lized at different stages of implementation. The targets are 25 percent of funding to be mobilized by June 2017 (end of IDA17), 50 percent by December 2018 (midterm of IDA18), and 75 percent by June 2020 (end of IDA18). As the plan may also have catalytic effects on other interven- tions (in addition to those described in the document), the second indi- cator proposed is the share of IDA commitments to Sub-Saharan Africa with climate co-benefits, which the World Bank has been monitoring since 2011. The target is to increase this share from a baseline of 17 ­percent (the average across all sectors for the period FY11–FY15) to 22 percent over the period FY16–FY20. The increase would help the World Bank Group meet its recent commitment to increase climate finance. •• Increase in Africa’s resilience to climate variability and change. A wide range of outcome indicators is proposed for each of the plan’s components. The proposed aggregate target is for at least 75 percent of these indicators to be met by June 2023 (end of IDA19). The lower-than-100 percent target reflects the fact that the goals of the Africa Climate Business Plan are ambitious. xiv Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box O.1  Assumptions Used in Estimating Sources of Financing of the Africa Climate Business Plan Funding of the business plan is based on the following assumptions. International Development Association (IDA) Resource mobilization for the fast-track part of the plan spans two IDA cycles: IDA17 (which ends June 30, 2017) and IDA18 (which will run from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2020). Activities that would start in the earlier years of the plan would be considered for financing under IDA17; estimates of financing in the outer years of the plan refer to activities to be considered for sup- port by IDA18 and are more tentative. The plan is fully consistent with the recently announced World Bank Group goal to increase the share of financing with climate co-benefits by one-third by 2020. That increase will be achieved through better integration of climate considerations into project planning and design. The additional technical work during project preparation needed to achieve such integration could be co-financed by dedicated resources mobilized by donors and partners. Climate Finance Funding estimates under this rubric comprise various instruments, including the Climate Investment Funds (in particular the Forest Investment Program [FIP]); the Global Environment Facility (GEF); the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility, including both the readiness and the carbon finance mechanisms; the Green Climate Fund (GCF); and other initiatives, such as the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI). Estimates are based on consultations with staff of each financing institution (on eligibility, strategic fit, and so forth). Some GCF projects (such as the hydro-met project) have already been submitted to the GCF Secretariat; others are in preparation. Other development finance (bilateral and multilateral institutions) Figures included in this category are based on technical consultations with the staff of a variety of financing partners of the World Bank, including the African Development Bank (AfDB), the West African Development Bank (BOAD), and bilateral partners (including the Agence Française de Développement [AFD], the Department for International Development [DFID], the German Agency for International Cooperation [GIZ], and the Nordic Development Fund [NDF]). These consultations range from preliminary to advanced, but in general there is a rea- sonable expectation that a substantial portion of the funding identified will materialize. Private sector Estimates of private sector financing reflect the potential of projects to generate streams of rev- enues adequate to remunerate private investors. Private sector participation is expected mainly in the energy sector and to some extent in agriculture. box continues next page Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xv Box O.1  Assumptions Used in Estimating Sources of Financing of the Africa Climate Business Plan (continued) Domestic sources Estimates of domestic financing are based on the record of government counterpart financing across World Bank projects. To be determined “To be determined” is an estimate of the residual gap that needs to be filled in order to fully finance the projects included in the plan. It is expected that this document will serve as a plat- form to help close this gap, by mobilizing additional interest and support from both existing and new partners with an interest in promoting climate-resilient low-carbon development in Africa (such as China and the Arab funds). Two levels of organizational arrangements are proposed for rolling out the plan. At the external level, to ensure an adequate framework for successful implementation of the plan, the Bank will continue to systematically inte- grate climate change considerations into country and sector dialogue, in accordance with commitments made as part of the IDA17 Replenishment. This effort includes addressing climate change in Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) and integrating climate considerations in Country Partnership Framework (CPFs), which will help identify the instruments (policy lending, investment lending, technical assistance, programs for results, guarantees, and so forth) that can best achieve the results envisaged by the plan and promote synergies with the Bank’s work in the related areas of jobs and gender. To nurture and expand partnerships for implementing the plan, the Bank will convene working-level meetings with organizations collaborating on spe- cific components on an as-needed basis. It could also organize high-level con- ferences with a wide range of stakeholders. The first such meeting could take place in the early stages of implementation, in order to spur both fundraising and action on the ground. The second could take place toward the end of the implementation period (in late 2018, for example). It would be aimed at con- sidering prospects for extending/scaling up the plan in order to achieve its longer-term goals. Within the Bank, implementation of each of the plan’s components will be spearheaded by a lead Global Practice (GP), collaborating as needed with other GPs and the Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solution Area (CCSA). Senior management in the Africa Region, the GPs, and CCSAs will provide strategic direction and oversight. xvi Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table O.3  Fast-track and Longer-term Indicators of Headline Outcomes (Provisional) Activity Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026 or later) I. Strengthening Resilience Natural Capital Climate-smart 10 million farmers have adopted climate- 25 million farmers have adopted climate- agriculture smart agriculture practices smart agriculture practices Forested landscapes Intersectoral forest landscape planning has Area under forest cover in targeted forest been conducted in 14 countries landscapes reaches 20 million hectares. Climate-resilient Pilot restoration interventions have taken 100 million hectares of degraded and landscapes place in at least 12 vulnerable landscapes deforested land in Africa have been restored by 2030 Niger Basin Projects worth $1 billion are operational to Projects worth $1.5 billion are operational increase the resilience to climate change to increase the resilience to climate of up to 3 million people, through improved change of up to 20 million people, natural resource management, irrigation, through improved regulation of water watershed management, and flood flows through multipurpose dams and protection. other infrastructure, natural resource management, irrigation, watershed management, and flood protection Lake Chad Basin Investments for $300 million in climate- Investments for 600 million in resilient activities are under implementation climate-resilient activities are under implementation Zambezi Basin Preparation of large investments (such as Infrastructure investments to improve hydropower, water transfers, irrigation etc.) resilience to climate variability and is completed; investments in community change through increased energy infrastructure (small water supply schemes, production, increased irrigation, and conservation agriculture, check dams, improved flood control are under way flood protection etc.) is under way Lake Victoria Basin Adoption of a formal climate-resilience At least $500 million of climate-resilient policy document and a financing roadmap investments made, aimed at minimum by the Sectoral Council of Ministers for the 1 million beneficiaries of sustainable land Lake Victoria Basin management and diversified livelihoods in rural areas Climate-smart ocean 4 countries present national climate-smart 8 countries present national climate-smart economies blue economy development plans to blue economy development plans to parliament parliament Physical Capital Climate-smart cities Investment in resilience-building activities Investment in resilience-building activities is ongoing in four cities and initiated in is ongoing in 11 cities another five Coastal resilience Measures in place to reduce rate of erosion Measures in place to reduce rate of (West Africa) in 30 percent of identified coastal erosion erosion in at least 70 percent of coastal hotspots and flood risks for 30 percent of erosion hotspots and flood risks for at the population in priority flooding areas least 70 percent of the population in priority flooding areas Human and Social Capital Social protection Increased percentage of people is Improved safety nets support the engaged in diversified climate-resilient response to climate shocks activities for their livelihood Migration drivers Government policies and strategies New innovative approaches are related to climate change adaptation developed, through support to knowledge and migration are informed through creation and just in-time technical key knowledge products, operational assistance for addressing the drivers and innovations, and knowledge exchanges impacts of migration table continues next page Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xvii Table O.3  Fast-track and Longer-term Indicators of Headline Outcomes (Provisional) (continued) Activity Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026 or later) II. Powering Resilience Solar power 1 GW of grid-connected solar photo-voltaic 2 GW of grid-connected solar Photo- power is generated Voltaic power is generated 5 million off-grid consumers gain access to 55 million off-grid consumers gain access modern energy services to modern energy services Hydropower 420 MW of reliable, clean, low-cost 545 MW of reliable, clean, low-cost hydropower is developed in West Africa hydropower is developed in West Africa Geothermal 150 MW of geothermal generation capacity 350 MW of geothermal generation is developed capacity is developed III. Enabling Resilience Africa hydro-met Hydro-met services are modernized and Timely and reliable forecasts are made at program programs underway in 15 countries and the regional, national, and local levels 4 regional centers Africa Climate On-demand advisory services on climate- On-demand advisory services on climate- Resilient Investment resilient planning and design are provided resilient planning and design are provided Facility to the developers of 20–30 projects to the developers of 30–50 projects Note: The table includes an indicative sample of the full range of outcome indicators provided in chapters 3–15 of this report. Indicators are subject to further validation; they will be periodically updated on a dedicated webpage (www.worldbank.org/africa​ /­climateplan). xviii Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Raffaello Cervigni (Lead Environmental Economist and Regional Coordinator for Climate Change), working under the guidance of Benoît Bosquet (Practice Manager, Environment and Natural Resources) and the overall direction of Jamal Saghir (Senior Regional Adviser). The team consisted of Paola Agostini, Margaret Arnold, Anton Baare, Alexander Bakalian, Yuvan Beejadhur, Thomas Bowen, Mark Cackler, Hocine Chalal, Gwen-Jiro Clochard, Jane Ebinger, Simeon Ehui, Joshua Gallo, Ana Maria Gonzalez Velosa, Pankaj Gupta, Stephen Hammer, Willem Janssen, Jonathan Kamkwalala, Gayatri Kanungo, Severin Kodderitzsch, Peter Kristensen, Marie-Laure Lajaunie, Christina Leb, Stephen Ling, Andrew Losos, Dahlia Lotayef, Magda Lovei, Catherine Lynch, Robin Mearns, Lucio Monari, Dania Mosa, Maniza Naqvi, Nicolas Peltier, Bérengère Prince, Christoph Pusch, Erik Reed, Marc Sadler, Gevorg Sargsyan, Christopher Saunders, Kanthan Shankar, Stephen Silverstein, Prashant Singh, Stavros George Stavrou, Angelica Sotomayor, Asmita Tiwari, Jacqueline Tront, Meike van Ginneken, Varalakshmi Vemuru, Sameh Wahba, and Marcus Wishart. Marie Bernadette Darang, Jayne Kwengwere, and Virginie Vaselopulos provided assistance to the team. ­ Special thanks go to Haleh Bridi, Marianne Fay, and John Roome, who provided peer review comments on an earlier draft. Pierre Guislain, ­ Mark  Lundell, Thomas O’Brien, Sajjad Ali Shah, and Catherine Tovey provided additional comments. ­ The report was edited by Barbara Karni. Erin Barrett and Rumit Pancholi, under the guidance of Cindy Fisher, managed the production process. A’Melody Lee assisted with the selection of photographs. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xix Abbreviations AFD Agence Française de Développement AfDB African Development Bank AFR GSURR Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Global Practice (Africa) ARLI African Resilient Landscapes Initiative ASP adaptive social protection CAADP Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Program CAFI Central African Forest Initiative CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CCSA Climate Change Cross-Cutting Solution Area CGIAR Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research CIF Climate Investment Funds CIWA Cooperation for International Waters in Africa COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa COP21 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change CORAF  West and Central African Council for Agricultural Research and Development CRIP Climate Resilient Investment Plan CRS Catholic Relief Services CSA climate-smart agriculture DANIDA Danish International Development Agency DFID Department for International Development EAC East African Community ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECHO  European Commission’s Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection department ECOWAS West African Economic and Monetary Union ECRAI Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure FANRPAN  Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FARA Forum for Agricultural Research FCPF Forest Carbon Partnership Facility FIP Forest Investment Program FY fiscal year GCF Green Climate Fund GDP gross domestic product GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GIZ  German Agency for International Cooperation (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit) GP Global Practice Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development xxi GPFD Government Partnerships for Development GSURR Social, Urban, Rural, and Resilience Global Practice IDA International Development Association IDA17 International Development Association, 17th replenishment IDA18 International Development Association, 18th replenishment IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IFC International Finance Corporation ILM integrated landscape management INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IOM International Organization for Migration IPCC International Panel on Climate Change IPP independent power producer JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KNOMAD  Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development LVEMP Lake Victoria Environment Management Program NBA Niger Basin Authority NDF Nordic Development Fund NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NGO nongovernmental organization NHMS national meteorological and hydrological services NORAD Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PPP public-private partnership PSNP Productive Safety Net Program PV photovoltaic REDD+  reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation SADC Southern Africa Development Community SDG Sustainable Development Goal SIDA Swedish International Development Association tCO2e tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNOCHA  United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs UN-REDD United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries USAID United States Agency for International Development WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization ZAMCOM Zambezi River Basin Committee xxii Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development PART A Context and Rationale Climate change has a very strong effect on poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, where millions of people depend on rain-fed agriculture or live in drought- prone zones in urban areas. Climate variability is already exacting a heavy toll on development; future change may have catastrophic impacts, as drought, floods, and storm surges could push millions of people into poverty and pre- vent millions of others from emerging from it. The Africa Climate Business Plan identifies a dozen areas where efforts could be stepped up to assist African countries in making their development more climate resilient. The plan is grounded in the World Bank’s overall com- mitment to support climate-resilient and low-carbon development across the developing world and its solid engagement in technical and financial assis- tance to support climate action in Sub-Saharan Africa. Chapter 1 Africa’s Development and Climate Agenda Climate is involved in most of the shocks that keep or push households into poverty (World Bank 2015b). These shocks include natural disasters (such as loss of assets and disability after floods); health shocks (such as health expenditures and lost income as a result of malaria); and crop losses (as a result of drought or crop disease) and food price shocks. The problem is particularly apparent in Sub-Saharan Africa, where climate shocks such as  drought, floods, and storm surges are already ravaging the continent (map 1.1), pushing people further into poverty or frustrating their efforts to emerge from it. Rainfall variability drives most of Africa’s agricultural production, given the continent’s very limited irrigation infrastructure. As a result, GDP fluc- tuates widely (figure 1.1 illustrates the point with respect to Senegal), with important repercussions on the income of the poor and their ability to save and build the assets needed to escape poverty. Climate-related factors will make poverty reduction ever more challenging in the future, for three reasons. First, a certain amount of global warming and  associated climate change is virtually unavoidable. As a result of the greenhouse gases that have already accumulated in the atmosphere, it appears very likely that the world is irrevocably headed toward warming of about 1.5°C–1.75°C above preindustrial levels, irrespective of the outcomes of international negotiations to curb emissions. This global average conceals a wider range of increases, with several parts of Africa expected to be at the higher end of the range. Even if warming does not exceed 2°C, the following impacts can be expected in Sub-Saharan Africa (World Bank 2013a): •• loss of 40–80 percent of suitable cropping areas for cultivars of maize, millet, and sorghum •• 10 percent reduction in per capita crop production, with significant con- sequences for food availability and food security •• 15–65 percent increase in levels of undernourishment (depending on the subregion), as a result of declines in crop yields and nutritional quality •• increasing drought risk, particularly in southern, central, and western Africa, with particularly severe implications for the 40 million people in Africa who earning their livings from livestock-based activities (De Haan and others 2015) •• declines in potential fish catches off the coast of West Africa (where fish account for as much as half of the animal protein consumed) of as much as 50 percent by midcentury. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 3 Map 1.1  Climate-Related Disasters in Sub-Saharan Africa Note: Map covers period 1971–2012. Second, as a result of the persisting gap between mitigation pledges and the abatement efforts needed to limit further climate change, there is a consider- ­ reindustrial times. able risk that warming will approach or exceed 3°C above p policies are scaled The extent of the increase will depend on whether existing ­ up to attain the targets indicated in the Intended Nationally  Determined Contribution (INDC) submitted up to October 2015 (figure 1.2).1 Warming approaching 4°C above preindustrial levels would have disas- trous consequences for Sub-Saharan African, as the Turn Down the Heat report (World Bank 2013a) documents: •• Heat extremes would affect 70–80 percent of Africa’s land area in the summer months. •• Southern Africa would be at risk of extreme drought, central Africa would be at risk of severe drought, and West Africa would face increased drought risk in general. 4 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Figure 1.1  GDP Growth and Agriculture Growth in Senegal (1990–2014) 25 20 15 10 5 Percent 0 –5 –10 –15 –20 –25 90 91 00 01 10 11 98 99 08 09 93 96 02 03 92 06 07 12 13 04 05 14 94 95 97 19 19 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 19 GDP growth Agriculture growth Source: World Bank estimates. Figure 1.2  Projected Effect of Current Pledges and Policies on Increases in Average Global Temperature, 1990–2100 200 Warming projected by 2100 Global greenhouse gas emissions (GtCO2 eq.) 150 Baselines: 4.1–4.8 100 Current policy projections 3.3–3.8 50 Pledges 2.5–2.7 Below 2°C 0 1.5–1.7 Below 1.5°C 1.3–1.5 –50 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 Historical emissions, Current policy projections 2*C consistent median © www.climateactiontracker.org/ incl. LULUCF (CAT assessment) and range** Climate Analytics/Ecofys/ Reference* Pledge pathway 1.5*C consistent median NewClimate/PlK (CAT assessment) and range*** Source: Climate Action Tracker (CAT) (http://climateactiontracker.org/global.html), accessed October 2015. Notes: * 5%–95% percentile of ARS WGII scenarios in concentration category 7, containing 64% of the baseline scenarios assessed by the IPCC. ** Greater than 66% chance of staying within 2°C in 2100. Median and 10th to 90th percentile range. Pathway range excludes delayed action scenarios and any that deviate more then 5% from historic emissions in 2010. *** Greater than or equal to 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C in 2100. Median and 10th to 90th percentile range. Pathway range excludes delayed action scenarios and any that deviate more than 5% from historic emissions in 2010. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 5 •• The rate of season failure in crop farming in southern Africa could increase to one in two years. •• Yields of major staple crops could fall by 20 percent. •• Floods could affect up to 18 million people a year by the end of the century. Severe impacts are also likely on infrastructure in coastal zones, as a result of sea-level rise and weather extremes such as cyclones. Cities are also likely to be major hotspots of vulnerability (box 1.1). Third, regardless of whether warming is contained below 2°C or exceeds that threshold, considerable uncertainty will exist regarding local weather patterns and hydrological cycles in Africa. For every scenario of greenhouse gas concentration and associated warming, there is a considerable uncer- tainty about the response of precipitation, runoff, groundwater recharge, and so forth. This uncertainty creates formidable challenges for planning and designing projects related to water management (irrigation, hydropower, water supply, flood control) and more generally climate-sensitive infrastruc- ture (for example, roads and bridges). Box 1.1  How are Climate-Related Shocks Affecting African Cities? African cities are slated to face disproportional impacts of disaster and climate change. The prob- lem will affect a growing number of people, as the urban population of Africa is estimated to rise from its current level of 472 million to 659 million by 2025 and 1 billion by 2040. The poor will be especially hard hit, for several reasons. They often settle in undesirable parts of cities, including hazard-prone areas. Unsanitary living conditions in many settlements increase the risk of disease and epidemics. Housing is often informal, raising the risk of eviction or destruc- tion of home. Settlements are prone to collapse and fire damage and are more easily destroyed by natural disasters. Proximity to coasts and rivers leaves cities at high risk from climate change. Heavy rainfall upstream is compounded by degraded watersheds and in some cases forced dam releases, result- ing in exceptionally high river levels. Unplanned settlements, many in high-risk areas, coupled with aging and inadequately maintained drainage infrastructure, particularly in low-lying urban areas, exacerbate the situation, leaving millions of people vulnerable to flooding. Medium-size cities (cities with populations of 500,000–1 million people) are increasingly grap- pling with recurrent disasters. Dakar experiences recurrent flooding; the 2009 floods affected almost 360,000 people and caused $100 million in damages and losses. Recurrent floods in Bangui, the capital of the Central African Republic, cause on average $7 million in damages and losses a year. Floods in 2009 left 14,500 people in Bangui—including some 6,000 children—­ homeless, and  the malaria, diarrhea, and other water-borne diseases that followed the floods thousands more. affected ­ By 2025 about 66 new cities will be added to the 81 cities currently in the medium-city range. This group of cities needs support to enhance their capacity to manage climate related risks. 6 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development In the case of hydropower, failure to integrate climate change in project planning and design across Africa’s major river basins could entail revenues losses of 5–60 percent (depending on the basin) and increases in consumer expenditure for energy of up to three times the baseline values (Cervigni and others 2015) (figure 1.3). In wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infra- structure development could lead to forgone revenues of 15–130 percent of the baseline (assuming the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower). Given the threats posed by current climate shocks—and the even greater ­ challenges linked to future climate change—the gap between needs and resource flows needed to scale up the continent’s resilience to an increasingly hos- tile climate is alarming. Current levels of funding for adaptation in Africa are esti- mated to be on the order of $3 billion a year. According to the World Bank and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the annual spending needed to adapt to a 2°C warming is on the order of $5–$10 billion today, $20–$50 billion around midcentury, and about $100 billion if ­ warming increases by 4°C above pre-industrial levels (figure 1.4). The priority attached to adaptation is reflected in the INDCs submitted by African countries. Of the 44 INDCs African countries submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) as of October 2015, 28 (63 percent) included an estimate of the financing needs for adapta- tion. This figure is more than two and half times as high as in the rest of the world (where just 21 of 88 [24 percent] INDCs included such an estimate). Figure 1.3  Projected Changes in Hydropower Revenues as a Result of Climate Change $3.8 billion 140 gain $4.2 billion gain $16.2 billion $11.1 billion Difference from reference case (%) 60 gain gain 40 $15.4 billion $0.9 billion gain gain 20 $0.9 billion gain 0 –20 $0.8 billion $16.6 billion loss $7. billion loss –40 $0.9 billion loss loss –60 $13.2 billion $2.4 billion loss $42.1 billion loss –80 loss Volta Niger Eastern Nile Nile Equatorial Zambezi Senegal Congo Lakes Basin Maximum relative gain due to climate change/best scenario Maximum relative reduction due to climate change/best scenario Source: Cervigni and others 2015. Note: Estimates cover the period 2015–50 and reflect economic outcomes across a range of 120 climate change scenarios. Green bars show the largest increase (and red bars the smallest decrease) in hydropower revenues relative to the no-climate-change reference case. Revenues are discounted at 3 percent. The opportunity for increased revenues will not be seized unless project design is modified in anticipation of increasing water availability. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 7 Figure 1.4  Financing Required to Support Africa’s Climate Adaptation Agenda 100 90 80 70 US$ Bilion/year 60 50 40 30 20 10 Current adaptation financing (average estimate) 0 2010–19 2020–29 2030–39 2040–49 WB EACC dry WB EACC wet UNEP 2 C UNEP 4 C Sources: Data from Climate Policy Initiative 2014, UNEP 2014, and World Bank 2010b. Note: WB EACC = estimates from the World Bank report on the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change (World Bank 2010b), including the wet and dry climate change scenarios analyzed in the report. UNEP 2 C and 4 C refer to the estimates in UNEP (2014) of adaptation costs in the two scenarios of 2°C and 4°C degrees warming. This business plan represents a major contribution by the World Bank to reduce Africa’s adaptation gap and meet the needs expressed by Africa in the INDCs. It outlines the Bank’s plans for deploying technical expertise, mobi- lizing financing from various sources, and facilitating the engagement of stakeholders on climate action. The plan was prepared in the lead-up to the 21st Session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP21), in recognition of the fact that COP21 offers a key opportunity for harnessing political leadership and finan- cial support around the activities included in the plan. The plan reflects the contributions and inputs of a wide variety of partners with whom the Bank is already collaborating on the ground to increase Africa’s resilience to climate variability and change. The initiatives included in the plan reflect the dialogue held with African countries by the International Development Association (IDA), which will leverage the support of other parts of the World Bank Group (the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development [IBRD], the International Finance Corporation [IFC], and the Multilateral Insurance Guarantee Agency [MIGA]). The plan supports the World Bank Group’s overall goals of ending extreme poverty by 2030 and promoting shared prosperity and greater equity in the developing world. Recent analysis (World Bank 2015b) indicates that ­climate change could push as many as 43 million Africans below the poverty line—a stark reminder of the vital role of enhancing climate resilience in reducing poverty. 8 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Note 1. An INDC identifies the actions a national government intends to take under the agreement to be reached at the Paris meeting of the Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in December 2015. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 9 Chapter 2 Scaling up World Bank Support to Climate Action in Africa Foundation of the Business Plan The Africa Climate Business Plan is firmly grounded in the World Bank Group’s overall commitment to support climate-resilient and low-carbon development across the developing world. Following the adoption in 2008 of the Strategic Framework on Development and Climate Change (SFDCC), the institution developed a regional strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa, “Making Development Climate-Resilient” (World Bank 2009). That strat- egy articulated a vision and key operational priorities for the Bank Group’s climate-­related work in Sub-Saharan Africa based on four pillars: •• making adaptation and climate risk management a core component of development •• taking advantage of mitigation opportunities •• focusing on knowledge and capacity •• scaling up financing opportunities. Since 2009 the Bank has made considerable progress in supporting climate action in Africa. It has mobilized substantial resources for climate action, building on a solid foundation of analytical work and regional platforms for cooperation and technical assistance, such as the TerrAfrica and Cooperation for International Waters in Africa (CIWA) programs (box 2.1). An important vehicle for financial support is the suite of windows included in the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs), which provide resources for climate-​ resilient, low-carbon development in 25 Sub-Saharan African countries (box  2.2). In Africa the World Bank implements CIF-financed projects in partnership with the African Development Bank. Over the five years for which climate finance tagging of World Bank opera- tions is available (FY11–FY15), an estimated $7.6 billion of IDA financing in Africa provided support for activities with climate co-benefits (adaptation, mitigation, or both). Ninety-five percent of the total was for projects mapped to the agriculture, energy, environment, social protection, urban develop- ment, and water sectors. For these sectors, the share of activities with climate co-benefits to total financing was about 30 percent, well above the corporate average of 20 percent (figure 2.1). Other sectors, such as transport, have not featured as prominently to date but have an important role to play going forward. Building the Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 11 Box 2.1  Supporting Climate-Resilient Development through Regional Partnerships The TerrAfrica partnership (kick-started by the Bank and currently housed in the New Partnership for Africa’s Development [NEPAD]/Africa Union) has helped prepare and finance two umbrella investment programs aimed at improving land management and thereby contrib- uting to c­limate  resilience. The first is the $1.25 billion Strategic Investment Program for Sustainable Land Management, which includes 36 operations in 26 countries (12 of which are Bank financed). This program has expanded sustainable land management practices on an esti- mated 250,000 hectares of land. The second is the nearly $2 billion World Bank Group-Global Environment Facility Sahel and West Africa Program (SAWAP), in support of the Great Green Wall Initiative. It supports implementation of a country-driven vision for integrated natural resource management for ­ sustainable and climate-resilient development in 12 countries in West Africa and the Sahel. The TerrAfrica Leveraging Fund—funded by the European Community, the Netherlands, and Norway, to the tune of $23 million—provides seed money to support activities that have the potential to leverage wider sustainable land and water management benefits. It helps scale up such practices, fills gaps, and provides resources to support integrated approaches. It supports targeted activities typically in the $10,000–$350,000 range that existing funding mechanisms are not already adequately covering. The Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) program supports African coun- tries as they seek to overcome complex political, financial, technical, and logistical barriers that arise in managing and developing international waters for climate-resilient growth. The pro- gram balances support for institutional development and information systems with assistance that helps riparians advance and improve the quality of investments. Typical institutional sup- port goes to developing climate-relevant information and modeling systems, strengthening the institutional and legal framework that underpins countries’ ability to cope with change, and facilitating ­citizen engagement and stakeholder access to climate-relevant information. Typical investment activities supported by the program include providing support for facilitating agreement among countries support and preparing regionally relevant investments in climate ­ resilience, informing and sharing good practice on climate-resilient infrastructure implemen- tation, and advancing resource mobilization for technically sound projects. The CIWA pro- gram supports the integrated watershed management projects in the Niger, Zambezi, and Lake Chad basins that are described in the business plan. Box 2.2  Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Support to Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Examples The Climate Investment Funds (CIF) help 72 developing countries pilot low-emissions and climate-­ resilient development. Its four components—the Clean Technology Fund (CFP), the Forest Investment Program (FIP), the Pilot Program Climate Resilience (PPCR), and the Scaling up Renewable Energy Program (SREP)—are supporting 33 programs in 25 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. 12 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 2.2  Climate Investment Funds (CIF) Support to Sub-Saharan Africa: Selected Examples (continued) The PPCR is currently supporting three Sub-Saharan Africa countries (Mozambique, Niger, and Zambia), and programs for support for six more countries are in the pipeline. Mozambique is receiving $102 million in investment funding from the PPCR to strengthen its climate resil- ience, with complementary assistance on the policy side being delivered through a programmatic Development Policy Lending series implemented by the World Bank. Areas of support include infrastructure upgrades, better resource management, enhanced climate services, and the devel- opment of local and national capacities for climate-resilient planning and action. The package of financing includes support for addressing climate risks to the road infrastructure, including through development of climate-resilient national roads standards to achieve transformative impact at the national level. With $63 million of PPCR support, the government of Niger is helping 38 rural communes prepare or revise their local development plans and annual budgets in ways that better integrate ­ climate-sensitive initiatives. The participatory and locally led process involves all stakeholders in the communes. The government is planning to scale up this experience to other communes. The PPCR is also supporting an advisory services project that promotes the use of affordable, efficient irrigation equipment by smallholder farmers. It aims to provide evidence of the benefits from commercial, sustainable irrigation systems, which are needed to encourage private sector interest to scale up and increase the impacts of the program. In Zambia the PPCR supported the establishment of the Interim National Climate Change Secretariat under the Ministry of Finance as a dedicated unit overseeing implementation of key climate change initiatives. With the Ministry of Finance at the helm, Zambia mainstreamed climate resilience measures into its Sixth National Development Plan. Strong political buy-in for the PPCR leveraged a tripling of the national budget allocation for PPCR-specific investments in FY15. National budgetary allocations are slated to increase progressively to set the secretariat on a path to sustainability once PPCR funding is exhausted, in 2019. The SREP program is supporting off-grid electrification efforts through the deployment of mini- grid systems in Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Liberia, Tanzania, and possibly other African countries as they prepare SREP investment plans. The vastness of many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, cou- pled with low population densities, makes access to electricity through grid expansion extremely challenging and expensive. Mini-grid rural electrification schemes are one of the best options for bringing modern energy services to a large proportion of the population for a long time. Most SREP-supported mini-grid projects focus on hybridizing existing diesel mini-grids with renew- able energy, mostly solar photovoltaic (PV) technologies. The SREP program is also actively engaged in geothermal energy. It is providing $126.5 ­million to Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania to support 710 MW in new capacity, including the first large-scale projects in Ethiopia and Tanzania. The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is implementing an advisory project supported by $2.3 million of SREP funds in Tanzania to establish an enabling environment for the country’s geothermal development that is c ­onducive  to private ­ sector ­ eveloping investment. The drafting and/or revising of geothermal laws is a crucial first step in d Tanzania’s untapped geothermal potential, which is estimated to exceed 650 MW. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 13 Figure 2.1  IDA Commitments to Africa in Selected Sectors, by Type of Financing 7,000 6,000 5,000 US$ Million 4,000 59% 14% 26% 17% 3,000 18% 2,000 1,000 12% 71% 0 Other Transport Energy & Water Social Agriculture Social, urban, and Environ- Extractives protection rural development ment and natural resources Financing with climate co-benefits Other financing Note: Percentages show share of total financing with climate co-benefits. All figures are for FY2011–15. ­ esilience of road networks will support access to key services and markets r that are critical for development. Improved urban planning and freight logistics and the development of rail transport can support lower carbon ­ transport modes while delivering important economic, health, and other benefits. Structure of the Business Plan This business plan identifies about a dozen priority areas in which the World Bank and its partners could focus in the coming years to ramp up support to Africa’s climate agenda. The areas—selected on the basis of country and regional dialogue and an assessment of opportunities that could generate results in a relatively short time—are organized in three clusters. The first cluster (“strengthening resilience”) includes selected initiatives aimed at boosting the resilience of the continent’s assets. These initiatives comprise Africa’s natural capital (landscapes, forests, agricultural land, inland water bodies, oceans); physical capital (cities and physical assets in coastal areas); and human and social capital (including improving social protection for the more vulnerable people against climate shocks and addressing the ­ climate-related drivers of migration, thereby mitigating the effects of climate shocks on social cohesion). The second cluster (“powering resilience”) relates to opportunities for scaling up low-carbon energy sources in Africa. In addition to helping 14 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development ­ itigate climate change, these activities yield considerable resilience bene- m fits. Societies with inadequate access to energy are also more vulnerable to climate shocks; when power becomes more accessible, irrigation systems ­ can be activated in times of drought, early warning systems and telecom- munication systems can be deployed before and after natural disasters, alternative revenue-generating activities can be undertaken, health services can be provided more easily, study hours can be extended contributing to better education, and so forth. The third cluster (“enabling resilience”) provides data, information, and decision-making tools for promoting climate-resilient development across sectors by strengthening hydro-meteorological systems at the regional and county level and building the capacity to plan and design climate-resilient investments. Selecting Priority Areas for Strengthening Resilience African countries are considerably more vulnerable to climate variability and change than much of rest of the developing world (map 2.1). What are the key sources of vulnerability for Africa? What should the priorities be for investing in strengthening resilience on the continent? One way to set priorities is to consider the effects of climate-related stres- sors on the different types of capital that underpin the functioning of social and economic systems. Natural capital (including land, forests, landscapes, water, and fisheries) is a direct source of income and employment for a large Map 2.1  Vulnerability to Climate Change, by Country Better Worse No data IBRD 41941 | OCTOBER 2015 This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Source: Adapted from University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) (http://index.gain.org/). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 15 share of Africa’s people. Climate change affects the ability of natural capital to deliver its wide range of products and services (including food, fodder, tim- ber, and the regulation of water cycles), some of them vital. Sustaining and managing natural capital is key to the ability of a country to invest in the other types of capital in a sustainable fashion. Physical capital includes cities, infrastructure, and other kinds of produced capital. Climate extremes such as floods, storm surges, and heat waves are already straining cities, roads, drainage systems, power plants, ports, and other types of infrastructure. Future climate change will probably require the rethinking of planning strategies and the raising of building standards to ensure adequate resilience of the built environment to the harsher climate of the future. Climate change also threatens the ability to build and maintain human ­capital, through health and education, which is key to development. Rising tempera- tures and more frequent floods are likely to make African s­ ocieties more vulner- able to water- and vector-borne diseases. Climate shocks also prevent households from saving and setting aside the resources needed for their children’s educa- tion. And increasing evidence suggests that climate shocks—particularly when combined with a range of other social, ethnic, and religious factors—contribute to the emergence of conflicts, which leads to the erosion of social and human capital (through displacement, death, disease, and so forth). In most African countries, vulnerability is a multidimensional problem (figure 2.2). Across the continent, interventions are required to strengthen Figure 2.2  Sources of Climate Vulnerability Across African Countries, 2013 100 90 80 70 60 Percent 50 40 30 20 10 0 ng ng p. l A e a- , T o K e we oz nz go Se ep bia s d uru ia Bu R Nig o c a Z iss e so ia U ala e ap ib e bi ia er C que G am a F da G nya M Ta To a he lic ot a ea Af s M Su ica rit an S ritr a Bo om ea w a i a on m ia M e ui n Li nea ua S o D ola C A Rea Zi ene on n a au S ero e h s n rk a er C Be da I r n i ri z C G ali ba al C dag uin d in d i L e ad C e V uti ga w lle tra uin bia as th B h h iu M cip d’ a C Dj voir n on G bo ts ali N an Et oro E ani , i om ni rd an B ber Le iop am an C a ger M al G ilan go ib t o wa R yc ub m g Pr n e sc in n ha au d b R m ut urit r o ra h am e a w So Ma N a o Si G fri e m Eq To o en Sa C Human capital Physical capital Natural capital Source: Data from the database of the University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index (ND-GAIN) (http://index.gain.org/). Note: Figures represent the relative contributions to the ND-GAIN aggregate index of vulnerability. Natural capital includes vulnerability indicators related to food, ecosystems, and water. Physical capital includes vulnerability indicators related to habitat and infrastructure. Human capital refers to vulnerability indicator of health. 16 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development the climate resilience of all three forms of capital, although the mix of actions will be country specific. The Africa Climate Business Plan therefore proposes a multidimensional approach to strengthen resilience, with interventions ­ limate ­targeted at the different forms of capital that are likely to be affected by c variability and future change (table 2.1). The selection of activities included for each type of capital is not exhaustive; it reflects some of the Bank’s current areas of engagement, established direc- tions for future assistance, and comparative advantages. Other sectors, such as transportation, are also contributing to the Bank’s efforts to improve climate resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa. Transport supports mobility and access to services that are critical to the fight against ­ poverty; roads provide access to markets for agricultural goods that are necessary to maintain rural livelihoods, for example. Improving transport ­ Table 2.1  Components of the Strengthening Resilience Cluster of the Africa Climate Business Plan Area of intervention Vulnerabilities to be addressed Natural Capital Climate-resilient Africa’s forests, and the broader landscapes of which they are part, are key sources landscapes of livelihoods for millions of Africans. Climate variability and change, combined with land conversion (which is often fueled by climate change), will affect the productivity of these ecosystems and their ability to sustain livelihoods. Climate-smart agriculture Climate variability and change (heat waves, droughts, floods, extreme weather) reduce agricultural productivity, depressing farm incomes and affecting the employment and well-being of 40–60 percent of Africans. Integrated watershed Climate change is affecting hydrological cycles, increasing the severity and frequency management (Niger, of flood episodes and dry spells. It is making it more difficult to plan and finance Chad, Zambezi basins) investments in irrigation, water supply, and energy production interventions. Ocean economy Climate variability and change affect key ocean-based sources of livelihood, such (East Africa) as fisheries, aquaculture, and tourism. Physical Capital Climate resilience of Coastal areas are estimated to account for 56 percent of West Africa’s GDP. coastal zones (West Two major climate-related challenges—erosion and flooding—threaten the Africa) sustainability of these areas. Erosion is expected to worsen as the sea level rises. Floods caused by severe weather events and poor infrastructure and planning threaten the livelihoods and health of people in coastal cities and rural areas. Climate-smart cities Sub-Saharan Africa is the fastest-urbanizing continent in the world, with an average urban population growth rate of 3.4 percent. Poor people in urban areas are particularly vulnerable to climate change, because they often have no other option but to settle in wetlands, floodplains, landfills, garbage dumps, and rocky areas. Climate-friendly urban transport solutions, such as bus rapid transit (BRT), can help improve urban mobility and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Human and Social Capital Drivers of migration Increasing evidence indicates that climate change and environmental degradation are threat multipliers—factors that interact with other risk drivers and sources of vulnerability to exacerbate fragility in states and societies and create conditions conducive for conflict and large-scale migration. Social protection Limited savings and access to finance inhibit poor households’ ability to cope with and recover from disasters. In response to climate shocks, poor households are often compelled to sell productive assets for immediate liquidity, remove children from school, and take other steps that have lasting and scarring effects on the affected individuals, their households, and society. These actions threaten to undo years of hard-won development gains. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 17 Table 2.2  Cut-Off Dates for Fast-Track and Longer-Term Phases of the Africa Climate Business Plan Goal Fast track Longer term Mobilize June 2020 (end of IDA18) December 2024 (midterm of IDA20) resources Generate June 2023 (end of IDA19) June 2026 (end of IDA20) outcomes connectivity can create economic opportunities in lagging regions with higher rates of poverty and inferior access to critical services (education and health in particular) than urban and economic core areas. Ensuring that the trans- port network is resilient to climate variability and change, including extreme events, is important for overall national resilience. This plan is a living document that will be updated and expanded in the coming months to cover other areas not addressed in this version, such as health and transport, which the Bank is well positioned to support through sector dialogue and financial/technical assistance. The rest of this report identifies the background and development chal- lenge, the proposed set of activities, the expected outcomes, the climate-­ related benefits, the financing requirements, and key partners for each priority area. To allow for incremental progress in implementation, the plan includes two separate time horizons, one for resource mobilization and another for the generation of results (table 2.2). The cut-off dates for each phase were selected to line up with the cycles of replenishment of the International Development Association (IDA). 18 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development PART B Strengthening the Resilience of Africa’s Assets To reduce the risk posed to their development prospects by climate variability and change, African countries need to strengthen the resilience of their natu- ral, physical, and human capital. Natural capital can be protected by making farmland, landscapes, watersheds, and oceans more resilient. Physical capital can be preserved by adopting smart climate policies for cities and coastal areas, which are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Human capital can be protected by boosting social protection and addressing the drivers of migration. This part of the business plan provides detailed proposals in each of these areas. B1: Natural Capital © Sara Farhat/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 3 Promoting Climate-Smart Agriculture The World Bank will support climate-smart agriculture (CSA) in Sub-Saharan Africa by advocating for the main regional CSA initiatives, fostering adoption of improved CSA policies, and financing national and regional investment programs to scale up adoption of CSA technologies and management options (table 3.1). Within the context of the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program, the World Bank is also developing an investment facility that will support countries in the preparation of proposals on CSA as well as other topics prioritized in the 2014 Malabo Declaration on Accelerating Agricultural Growth and Transformation. The so-called Malabo facility may be used to support investments not only through the World Bank but also Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 21 Table 3.1  Support to Climate-Smart Agriculture: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes Engage in advocacy, awareness raising, Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) and resource mobilization in support of • Improvement in capacity to • Improvement in capacity to key initiatives in the region: implement CSA policies in 10 implement CSA policies in • Vision 25 × 25 in support of the countries 20 countries Malabo Declaration on accelerated • Integration of CSA into • Integration of CSA into agricultural transformation regional agricultural policies regional agricultural policies • The Africa Climate-Smart Agriculture in West Africa across Africa Alliance • The West African CSA Alliance Support adoption of evidence-based • Strengthening of evidence • Strengthening of evidence policies and institutional strengthening base for CSA policies in 10 base for CSA policies in 20 for CSA countries countries • Adoption of improved CSA • Adoption of improved CSA policies in at least three policies in at least five countries countries Provide financial and technical support • Adoption of CSA practices by • Adoption of CSA practices by for national and regional investment 10 million farmers 25 million farmers programs to scale up adoption of CSA • 1 million hectares of farm • 3 million hectares of farm technologies and management options land with CSA-compatible land with CSA-compatible infrastructure and practices infrastructure and practices • Improved pastoral systems in • Improved pastoral systems in place in seven countries place in 15 countries Main partners Resource mobilization African governments, as convened Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds through the African Union Commission; by 2024) CGIAR, CRS, CARE, Concern $3,000 million $2,000 million International, FAO, GIZ, OXFAM, World Vison; COMESA, EAC, ECOWAS, SADC; CORAF, FANRPAN, FARA, NEPAD; DFID, NORAD; World Bank client countries through other financiers (ministries of finance, other multilateral institutions, bilateral sources). It will operate in coordination with the proposed Climate Resilient Investment Facility. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Agriculture is a major economic driver in Africa and key to poverty allevia- tion and food security: Growth in the sector reduces poverty by about three times as much as growth in other sectors. Agriculture typically represents 30–40 percent of GDP in Africa and employs up to 65 percent of the labor force, providing livelihoods for millions of smallholders and their families. Africa is home to more than 225 million undernourished people. It also has the world’s highest rate of stunting (40 percent) (FAO 2014). Farm fami- lies in Africa and other parts of the world are already overrepresented among the poor. Climate change will strongly reduce their chances of ­escaping poverty. 22 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Climate variability is already reducing productivity. Crop productivity simulations show that cereal yields between 1981 and 2002 would have been ­ 2–3 percent higher in the absence of climate shocks—an estimated produc- tion loss of 40 million tons of grain a year (Lobell and Field 2007). Without actions to improve the resilience of agriculture, a rise in average temperatures of 2°C by the middle of the century might reduce yields by up to 20 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Additional temperature increases would cause exponentially more harm. More irregular rainfall amplifies temperature risks; the consequent droughts may trigger famines. Agriculture and agriculture-driven land use produce significant green- house gas emissions (24 percent of the global total [IPCC 2014]), but they can also become a part of the solution. CSA practices such as agro-forestry and improved livestock and pasture management can reduce emissions and remove carbon out of the atmosphere. African agriculture must strive to attain a triple win: dramatically increas- ing productivity, enhancing the resilience of farming systems, and achieving lower emissions. CSA can deliver on all three goals (Box 3.1). Commensurate measures to preserve and increase transportation connec- tivity for agricultural communities will have a reinforcing effect on agricul- tural resilience by making it easier for increased harvests to find their way to markets, enabling the efficient distribution of agricultural inputs, and allow- ing for the efficient movement of food products to regions experiencing poor harvests as a result of climate change. Box 3.1  Increasing African Food Security While Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Climate-Smart Agriculture African agricultural and livestock systems are extremely vulnerable to climate change: Drought, heat, extreme events, changes in water availability, disease, and pest infestations, to name but a few of the many complex impacts, reduce yields and increase the rate of animal deaths. Falling yields come at a time when population growth and increasing incomes will require African agricultural systems to almost triple overall production. Doing so in a business as usual scenario would triple agriculture and land use–related emissions, catapulting Africa to near the top of international agricultural emission contributors and threatening achievement of the 2°C goal. CSA investment plans, projects, and policies can help address these challenges and increase production, enhance resilience, and reduce emissions. Indeed, with the help of low- carbon agricultural production systems, Africa could triple food production while controlling emissions. The widespread use of high-efficiency, low-energy irrigation systems could reduce drought stress, enabling higher production and lower losses as a result of natural disasters and improving energy efficiency per kilogram of food. Scaling up agro-forestry would dramatically reduce fertilizer use box continues next page Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 23 Box 3.1  Increasing African Food Security While Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions through Climate-Smart Agriculture (continued) and capture carbon in trees and soils. More efficient livestock systems would increase protein availability while reducing emissions per kilogram of meat or dairy produced. Conservation agri- culture techniques would protect soils from wind and water erosion. Weather information and early warning systems would enable farmers to take better decisions, reducing risk and protecting yields in uncertain climate and weather conditions. All CSA measures share two important features. First, they reduce pressure for land use change by increasing yields per hectare. Integrated landscape approaches help capture these benefits in forests and savannahs. Second, they improve the efficiency of agricultural inputs (fertilizer, water, feed conversion), thereby reducing emission intensity. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience At the 2014 Malabo Summit, convened by the African Union within the context of the renewal of the Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), African heads of state committed to accelerating agricultural growth and enhancing the resilience of livelihoods and production systems by 2025. They endorsed Vision 25 × 25, which aims to have 25 million farmers in Africa using CSA practices by 2025. The Africa Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance aims to reach 6 million farming families with CSA by 2022.1 Its initial focus is in Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Niger, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia. The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA), the East African Community (EAC), and the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) are jointly implementing the Initiative for Climate Smart Agriculture in Eastern and Southern Africa, funded by the European Commission, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and the U.K. Department for International Development (DFID). The initiative aims to establish evidence-based policies on CSA that may attract adaptation and mitigation finance to the region. Under the CAADP umbrella and with the support of the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD) is implementing a program on adaptation of agricul- ture to climate change that supports selected regional economic communities and African Union member states in implementing climate change adapta- tion strategies. The Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) operates a series of CSA initiatives in eastern and southern Africa focused on evidence-based policy making, strengthened institutional capacity, and cross-country watershed management. 24 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Many initiatives on CSA are thus underway. This business plan will help these efforts source funding and explore their synergies. In June 2015, in Bamako, a West African CSA alliance was launched and a framework for the integration of CSA into regional agriculture policy was discussed during a high-level forum hosted by the West African Economic and Monetary Union (ECOWAS) and the Permanent Interstate Committee for drought control in the Sahel (CILSS). World Bank CSA lending operations in Africa include two major CSA proj- ects under preparation in Niger and Kenya. Discussions are ongoing in many other countries. The Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Africa Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance have developed a frame- work document that guides investment on CSA for Africa.2 It outlines ­ country-led action to support and enhance existing country CSA programs. The document can guide countries seeking to become more climate smart by developing national CSA action plans. As part of the Africa Climate Resilient Investment facility described later in this business plan, countries would also receive assistance through a CSA center of excellence, supported by the World Bank and hosted by the African Union and NEPAD. CSA country readiness assessments and investments plans based on this framework will be developed in three pilot countries. They could be show- cased at COP21 to demonstrate best practice and form the basis of broader dialogue with partners and donors. In addition, two World Bank–assisted country investment operations will be prepared and presented to deliver a proof of concept of the framework approach. The Malabo facility will be established to support the next step of CAADP financial intermediation. It will be operational by December 2016. The World Bank, the African Development Bank, the International Fund for  Agricultural Development (IFAD), the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), DFID, NORAD, USAID, Agence Française de Développement (AFD), and other multilateral and ­bilateral sources will be invited to provide funding in order to enhance invest- ments in sustainable agricultural development. With the assistance of the World Bank, a CSA center of excellence would be established at the African Union in Addis Ababa or at NEPAD in Pretoria, to support the Malabo facility and the Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility. The center would offer technical assistance (through the Food and Agriculture Organization [FAO], Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security [CCAFS], and other centers of the CGIAR) as requested by ­countries. It would ensure regional coordination, shared learning among participating countries, and preparation of tailored country ­ support packages. The center would provide assistance in the following areas: •• assessing CSA country readiness by taking stock of ongoing CSA activities •• determining CSA preparedness, policy needs, investment gaps, and human capacity constraints Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 25 •• developing integrated national CSA strategies and investment plans, with building blocks and clear roadmaps for implementation •• translating CSA strategies into transformational action on the ground and engaging with the private sector and other partners •• promoting best-practice learning and results tracking systems to maxi- mize lessons learned. Expected Outcomes With the center of excellence in place, CSA country readiness assessments and investments plans would rapidly multiply across Africa. Within 12 months of COP21, 10 readiness assessments and investment plans would be developed; within 24 months the number would increase to 30. A rapid scale-up of CSA– related lending in Africa would lead to five investment ­ operations within 12 months of COP21, 15 within 24 months, and 30 within 36 months. Financing Plan Table 3.2 describes the financing plan. Key Partners The World Bank will deploy comprehensive resources, including IDA/IBRD and trust funds, to support the objectives outlined above. Given the growing role of the private sector in agricultural development, the Bank will team up with other branches of the World Bank Group, including IFC and MIGA. Table 3.2  Support to Climate-Smart Agriculture: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 240 Co-funding of IDA credits IDA 1,300 From countries and regional IDA allocations; figure assumes a tripling of IDA funding with climate co-benefits in agriculture over the baseline (FY11–FY15) Private sector 240 Investments by private corporations in the context of government-led integrated CSA investment projects Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 100 Based on country quotas and so forth) Other development finance 320 AfDB, IFAD, USAID, and other bilaterals (bilaterals, multilaterals) To be determined 800 Private sector, lower-level governments, NGOs, and farmer organizations Total fast track (resources raised 3,000 by 2020) Longer term (additional 2,000 resources raised by 2024) 26 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development It will collaborate with traditional and emerging partners in the sector, includ- ing other multilateral institutions, bilateral donors, the Green Climate Fund, and private sector investors. It will collaborate with traditional and emerging partners in the sector, including other multilateral institutions, bilateral donors, the Green Climate Fund, and private sector investors. Notes 1. The Africa Climate-Smart Agriculture Alliance was convened by the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NEPAD). It brings together the Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA), and the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN) as well as several large NGOs (CARE, CRS, Concern International, Oxfam, and World Vision). 2. See https://ccafs.cgiar.org/climate-smart-agriculture-prioritization-framework​ #.VhKOaNLluUk. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 27 © Andrea Borgarello/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 4 Creating Climate-Resilient Landscapes The World Bank advocates for poverty alleviation, shared prosperity, and sustainability to move toward a climate-resilient, low-carbon, and sustainable ­ development path. Sustainable management of natural resources for resilient landscapes is at the heart of achieving these objectives. The Bank’s work on building the resilience of African landscapes is based on promoting the use of an integrated landscape management approach that ­ recognizes the impor- tance of moving beyond single-sector interventions in order to take into account the resilience of both ecosystems and livelihoods. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 29 Within the broader landscape thematic area, two work lines have been selected for inclusion in the Africa Climate Business Plan. The first is ­support to forested landscapes, a key source of livelihood for many commu- nities across Africa. The second is the Africa Resilient Landscape Initiative, focused, for the purpose of this plan, on the Horn of Africa and eastern Africa. 30 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Rhett Butler. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. 4.1 Forested Landscapes The World Bank will support the climate and forest agenda in Africa through a range of instruments that will help slow deforestation, prevent forest-related carbon emissions, and promote sustainable use of forests for improved liveli- hoods and enhanced resilience to climate change (table 4.1). Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Africa’s forests, landscapes, and ecosystems contribute to poverty alleviation, shared prosperity, and inclusive green growth by providing goods and ­services that sustain the livelihoods of the rural poor and contribute raw materials to other economic sectors.1 Forests are a critical resource for Africa’s poor: The poorest fifth of the population earns more than 30 percent of its income from forest and environmental resources—more than the share generated by agriculture. Africa’s forests are under extreme pressure because of demands for food, fuel, and fiber. Demand for new land, timber, fuel wood, charcoal, bush meat, and medicinal plants, coupled with weak governance and inadequate enabling conditions, poor land use management and tenure security, and illegal activ- ity, contribute to forest loss and degradation. Illegal use of forests, unclear tenure rights, disenfranchised stakeholders, and unskilled managers pose ­ significant challenges to managing forest resources well. Climate change poses a key challenge for Africa’s forests and the people who depend on them. Forest degradation and land conversion create greenhouse gases. Climate change can result in droughts and stresses on fragile ecosys- tems, increasing the risk of forest dieback, forest fires, and pest infestations. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 31 Table 4.1  Support to Forests and to Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+): At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Support the development of Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) national REDD+ strategies and • 10 REDD+ strategies designed • 20 million hectares under implementation arrangements • 14 strategic environment and social forest cover in targeted (legal framework, capacity assessments for REDD+ conducted forest landscape building, governance structures, • Policy and institutional • 40 million tCO2e in monitoring and verification strengthening activities for REDD+ emissions reductions and systems, stakeholder engagements conducted in 10 countries carbon sequestration platforms, feedback and grievance • Five Measurement, Reporting, achieved redress mechanisms, and so forth) and Verification (MRV) systems • 8 million hectares • Fund early investments in designed and operational brought under enhanced demonstration activities in forest • Intersectoral forest landscape biodiversity protection landscapes planning conducted in 14 countries • Fund performance-based payments • Platforms for civil society for REDD+ and enhanced carbon engagement in REDD+ created or stocks strengthened in 14 countries Main partners Resource mobilization BioCarbon Fund (BIOCF), Forest Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF), by 2024) Forest Investment Program (FIP), $850 million $850 million Program on Forests, TerrAfrica, UN- REDD Programme, bilateral partners Protecting forests can contribute to adaptation and resilience to climate change, because forests protect water supplies and ecosystem services and provide an important safety net for the poorest households. Programs for reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+) can potentially yield financing for development and job creation in poor communities. REDD+ efforts have catalyzed a vibrant and inclusive dialogue on planning, strategy, opportunities, and tradeoffs on land and for- ­ est issues with only small investment. They are laying the groundwork for building consensus on the role of forests, the ways in which they can contrib- ute to sustained economic growth, and the need to improve land use planning and recognition of rights, which could generate more investment in the sector in the future. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The Bank’s work on forests in Africa and beyond rests on the following tenets: •• Enhanced and sustained engagement is necessary to move toward sus- tainable management of forests as an essential contributor to economic development and poverty alleviation. •• Improved management and conservation of forests will require efforts outside the sector to address drivers of deforestation, trade-offs, and competing incentives for land use and conversion. 32 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• Countries need an enabling environment in which farmers and small- holders can invest in trees and landscapes as part of fuelwood provision, rural enterprises, and forest-based ecotourism. •• Deforestation, landscape degradation, and soil erosion impose increas- ingly heavy economic costs that undermine efforts to improve agricul- tural productivity and protect the watersheds that contribute to needed hydropower development. Adaptation to and mitigation of climate change and conservation of biodi- versity provide useful entry points for policy dialogue and sources of finance that can help move this agenda forward. The Bank is helping client countries access climate finance opportunities that can act as incentives to shift toward more sustainable practices. It has invested in improving forest sector planning, governance, and consultation to put in place REDD+ programs in 14 countries. Forest Investment Programs (FIPs) have been complemented by measures to enhance the capacity of indigenous people and local communities to participate in REDD+ through the FIP Dedicated Grant Mechanism for Indigenous People and Local Communities. The Bank is continuing to build on the TerrAfrica program, which has created a platform for forging a common vision to addressing Africa’s most daunting land management issues. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Ghana, Liberia, and Mozambique, the Bank is helping implement an inte- grated portfolio of well-funded engagements on forests, landscapes, and biodiversity. Most of these countries have large tracts of forest and recognize ­ the importance of improving forest management as part of spurring ­ economic development and mitigating the effects of climate change. The Bank is sup- porting these countries’ efforts to improve governance systems, address driv- ers of deforestation, and engage communities in improving practices with better benefit sharing. These endeavors are putting clients in a position to access larger sources of financing through payments for performance (under the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility Carbon Fund, the BioCarbon Fund, and bilateral arrangements). Success in addressing deforestation issues and accessing climate finance is also sending a signal to other development ­partners and the private sector, which helps mobilize or leverage other forms of financ- ing that can scale up good practices and sustain sectoral transformation. Investment programs such as the FIP are increasing the number of pro- grams piloting forest investments. FIP has committed resources to three new country programs (in the Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mozambique) and has provided Cameroon, Rwanda, Uganda, and Zambia with financial resources to develop forest related investment plans. New streams of funding are being made available. One is the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI), being created to increase investments in the Congo Basin. It is expected to substantially reduce greenhouse gases from deforestation and forest degradation, improve local livelihoods, enhance the  functioning of ecosystems, and increase access to performance-based payments to reinvest in sustainable forest landscapes. ­ Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 33 Expected Outcomes The expected outcomes are conservative estimates based on results from country emissions reductions programs by 2025. Investments in forests and REDD+ will help countries move from a condition of degraded landscapes with low productivity and high incidences of poverty to improved landscapes with better productivity, sustainable livelihoods, and more equitable sharing of benefits. These investments, coupled with improved governance and inclu- sive participation, are expected to lead to (a) improved economic outcomes from productivity and livelihood opportunities for local communities; (b)  enhanced social benefits and community empowerment (from institu- tional support, communications, capacities; (c) more sustainable forest and land stewardship (from better policies, incentives, and practices); and (d) greater forest and agricultural biodiversity, soil conservation, habitat con- nectivity, and ecosystem services. Ecosystem s ­ervices provide benefits to downstream users and other sectors of the economy. Such services include water conservation, flood prevention, run-off and siltation control, protec- tion of fisheries, and conservation of biodiversity. Forest- and climate-related investments can also improve the livelihoods of forest-dependent people and help preserve cultures and traditions. Forest investments also generally help build the capacity of government agencies responsible for forest and natural resource management as well as the com- munities that use and depend on these resources. Climate-Related Benefits Forest- and climate-related investments improve the livelihoods and increase the resilience of rural communities in targeted regions who manage agricul- tural and forestry landscapes for their livelihoods. Smallholder farmers, including women, can gain access to new skills, technologies, and markets that contribute to their ability to adapt to change and deal with economic shocks. Enterprises of all sizes can benefit from clearer policies and regulatory processes, more productive landscapes, and improved management practices among their suppliers. Investments also contribute directly to the mitigation agenda by address- ing drivers of deforestation and improving land and forest management and stewardship, which allows greater carbon storage in the natural environment. Many programs provide explicit support and incentives for reducing emis- sions by offering results-based payments linked to verified performance at the field level. Financing Plan Table 4.2 describes the financing plan. 34 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 4.2  Support to Forests and to Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+): Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 IDA 0 Private sector 0 Climate finance (GCF, GEF, 590 Three countries (to be determined) will receive additional Forest CIF, and so forth) Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) REDD+ readiness grants; three countries will develop FIP investments and programs for their respective Dedicated Grant Mechanism for indigenous peoples and local communities (DGM) (the Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, and Mozambique); two to three countries will receive performance-based payments from the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) Carbon Fund; two to three countries will receive financing from the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI). Other development finance 0 (bilaterals, multilaterals) To be determined 260 Two to three countries will access additional FCPF readiness funds; two to three additional countries will access investment funds through the FIP, CAFI, GEF, or other sources; two to three additional countries will access performance-based payments through the FCPF Carbon Fund. Total fast track (resources 850 raised by 2020) Longer term (additional 850 resources raised by 2024) Key Partners Key partners in the region includes the governments of Burkina Faso, Cameroon, the Central African Republic, the Republic of Congo, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Liberia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda, Tanzania, Togo, and Zambia; the European Union and the governments of France, Germany, Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States; and the FCPF, FIP, and UN-REDD. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 35 © A’melody Lee/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. The African Resilient Landscape 4.2  Initiative The World Bank will support the African Resilient Landscape Initiative (ARLI), which will use a landscape approach to integrate multiple sectoral ini- tiatives, facilitating linkages and coordination among them. The initiative will mobilize financial and technical resources from multiple sources to help design and implement country- and region-specific integrated landscape-level strate- gies. Through ARLI, the Bank will support resilient landscapes in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and East Africa by combining geographical and socioeco- nomic approaches to managing land, water, and forest resources in support of food security and inclusive green growth (table 4.3). Connecting various type of land uses (including agriculture, woodlands, agro-silvo-­ pastoral lands, croplands, and irrigated agricultural lands) promotes productivity, resilience, carbon sequestration, biodiversity, water regulation and quality, national secu- rity, and regional stability. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges The multidimensional challenges of poverty, population growth, land degra- dation, deforestation, unsustainable watershed management, climate variabil- ity, unsustainable land use, migration, and fragility have undermined resilience to natural and economic shocks. These challenges require inte- grated solutions across borders. Creating resilient landscapes that strengthen the integrity of ecosystems to provide the full range of services for productive sectors and livelihoods, including migrant and fragile communities, requires collaborative action at scale. It also requires coordination of planning and 36 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 4.3  Support to Climate-Resilient Landscapes: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes Launch, operationalize, and support of the African Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) Resilient Landscape initiative, including through • Institutions, information, • 100 million hectares of the following activities: and policy reforms degraded and deforested • Preparation and implementation of the Resilient for restoration and land put under restoration Landscapes for Development Program (RLDP) resilience strengthened by 2030 in Eastern Africa and the Horn of Africa in 12 countries • Changes in vegetation (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, • Pilot restoration cover effected on and Uganda) interventions aimed at 100 million hectares • Preparation and implementation of sustainable enhancing ecosystem • Targeted institutions landscape management in Ghana resilience and benefiting from training • Preparation and implementation of the promoting sustainable and capacity building sustainable agricultural land program in livelihoods implemented activities to address risks Madagascar and sustained in at and response to climate • Preparation and implementation of the least 12 vulnerable variability. agriculture and natural resources landscape landscapes • Carbon accumulation management program in Mozambique rates in biomass and soil • Preparation and implementation of the resilient increased by 20M tCO2e natural resource management for growth over baseline program in Tanzania Main partners Resource mobilization African Union; NEPAD; regional economic Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional communities; the European Union and the funds by 2024) governments of France, the Netherlands, and Norway; UN bodies; civil society stakeholders; others $755 million $755 million management decisions across a range of sectors and stakeholders, supportive policies and regulations, investments in effective programs, capacity building to generate learning, replication of good practices, and strategies for scaling up successful programs. The World Bank is increasingly supporting its country clients in their efforts to implement a more integrated landscape approach to managing competing demands for land, water, and other natural resources. The landscape approach is based on recognition of the complex interlinkages among the different com- ponents of natural capital, an insight of great importance to the communities that live in a reality in which all is connected (that is, in the landscape). Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The following initiatives are under way: •• The Burundi Sustainable Coffee Landscape Project is piloting sustainable land and water management practices. •• The Regional Pastoral Livelihoods Resilience Project seeks to enhance the resilience of pastoral and agro-pastoral communities in cross-border drought-prone areas of Kenya and Uganda and to improve government capacity to respond to a crisis or emergency. •• The Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project (PRAPS) seeks to increase access to essential productive assets, services, and markets for Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 37 pastoralists and agro-pastoralists in selected transborder areas and along transhumance axes in six Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal) and to strengthen country capacities to respond to pastoral crises and emergencies. •• The Rwanda Landscape Approach to Forest Restoration and Conservation Project is demonstrating landscape management for enhanced environ- mental services and climate resilience in one priority landscape. •• The Sahel and West Africa Program (SAWAP), in support of the Great Green Wall Initiative, seeks to expand sustainable land and water man- agement in targeted landscapes and climate vulnerable areas in Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sudan, and Togo. Building on the TerrAfrica platform, the Africa Union/NEPAD is establishing a broad-based African Resilient Landscapes Initiative (ARLI).2 ARLI, which will be launched at COP21, will assist developing countries in (a) ­ promoting the inclusive and sustainable use and management of natural resources, cen- tered on people’s social, economic, and environmental welfare and resilience; (b) scaling up and leveraging sectoral interventions, so that the whole is greater than the sum of individual interventions in terms of ­ ecological and economic gains; and (c) ensuring the integrity, restoration, and sustainable management of landscapes across the region. It envisions bringing together elements of sustainable forestry management practices, sustainable farming practices ­ (climate-smart agriculture), and pastoralism within African landscapes. ­ ARLI will commit to bringing 100 million hectares of degraded and defor- ested land under restoration in Africa by 2030. Doing so would improve soil fertility and food security, increase access to clean water, combat desertifica- tion, increase biodiversity and habitat, create green jobs, bolster economic growth and livelihood diversification, and increase the capacity for climate change resilience and adaptation. ARLI will also support implementation of the African Landscapes Action Plan. ARLI’s goal will be achieved through implementation of multiple cross-­ sectoral investments, including the following programs: •• Sustainable Landscape Management (Ghana) •• Sustainable Agricultural Land Program (Madagascar) •• Agriculture and Natural Resources Landscape Management (Mozambique) •• Resilient Natural Resource Management for Growth (Tanzania) •• Resilient Landscapes for Development Program (Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Uganda, and a regional project]) Expected Outcomes Expected outcomes include the following: •• enhanced resilience of ecosystems and people and sustainable livelihoods 38 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• stronger institutions, information, and policy reforms for restoration and  resilience (achieved through training and capacity building on integrated landscape management or carbon accounting in productive ­ landscapes) •• restoration of pilot vulnerable landscapes. Climate-Related Benefits Landscape approaches and on the ground investments will generate the ­following benefits: •• land use planning with integrated climate adaptation and mitigation objectives •• sectoral investments (agriculture, conservation, transport, infrastructure, mining, water, and so forth) with mainstreamed climate benefits •• planning at the landscape level involving land use options that result in reduced gas emissions and decreased pressure on forests •• secured multiple ecosystem functions that simultaneously contribute to enhance climate resilience and adaptation •• conservation of valuable ecosystems (for example, wetlands and peat lands, which perform important regulatory services and constitute large carbon sinks) •• large-scale and multisectoral transfer of knowledge, technology, and support for joint landscape planning. ­ Financing Plan Table 4.4 describes the financing plan. Table 4.4  Support to Climate-Resilient Landscapes: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 IDA 355 IDA funds will be included in some Horn of Africa countries as well as in projects in Mozambique and Tanzania. Private sector 0 Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, and so 240 GEF: $40 million, GCF: $200 million (expected forth) leverage to be confirmed) Other development finance (bilaterals, 0 multilaterals) To be determined 160 Consultations are under way with bilateral governments and communities; confirmation is expected during project preparation Total fast track (resources raised by 2020) 755 Longer term (additional resources raised 755 by 2024) Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 39 Key Partners Key partners include the African Union; NEPAD; regional economic com- munities (COMESA, ECCAS, ECOWAS, SADC); UN bodies; the African Development Bank; other international organization; the European Union and the governments of France, the Netherlands, and Norway; and civil ­society organizations. Notes 1. Africa’s forested area is estimated at 675 million hectares—about 17 percent of the global forest area and 23 percent of the land area in the region (these ­ figure do not include trees outside forests or on agricultural land, although they are important, especially in more densely populated areas, including western Kenya, parts of semi-arid and subhumid West Africa, and parts of Uganda, Ethiopia, and Madagascar). Five countries—the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sudan, Angola, Zambia, and Mozambique—account for more than half of the region’s forested area. 2. TerrAfrica is an Africa-based and Africa-led partnership of 26 Sub-Saharan coun- tries and 20 partners, including regional economic communities, UN bodies, international organizations, the European Union, bilateral donor agencies, and civil society organizations. It aims to reverse land degradation and build resilience by adopting policies and programs that promote sustainable land and water man- agement practices under a landscape approach. 40 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © John Hogg. Used with permission; further permission required for reuse. Chapter 5 Promoting Integrated Watershed Management The World Bank is actively engaged in integrated management of Africa’s watersheds, through policy dialogue, technical assistance and financial sup- port, with a particular emphasis on the management of trans-boundaries water resources, though vehicles such as the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) program. This component of the business plan intends to scale up support to four selected basins (the Niger, Lake Chad, Zambezi, and Victoria basins), with the goal of strengthening the ability of riparian countries in these basins to manage their water resources for sustain- able development in a climate-resilient way. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 41 © David Mills/Flickr. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. 5.1  Niger River Basin The World Bank will support climate-resilient development in the Niger River Basin through the preparation of a Climate Resilience Investment Plan (CRIP) and the cofinancing of its implementation (table 5.1). Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Nine countries in West and Central Africa—Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Mali, Niger and Nigeria—share the Niger River Basin. Its surface area, which spans nearly 1.5 million square kilometers, is marked by a mosaic of climates, ecosystems, human settlements, and agri- cultural production systems. The population in the basin is highly vulnerable. Seven of the 10 basin countries are among the 20 poorest countries in the world, and 4 are landlocked. Most of the countries in the Niger Basin have predominantly rural populations that rely on rain-fed agriculture, pastoral- ism, and other natural resource–based livelihoods. Food security and social well-being depend mostly on unpredictable and extreme rainfall patterns, particularly in the Sahel part of the basin. Climate change is exacerbating these challenges. The Niger Basin is already experiencing variability of extreme precipitation and a long-term trend of increasing aridity and decreasing precipitation. There is consider- able uncertainty about the implications of climate change for the hydrolog- ical cycles in the basin (as in much of West Africa), with some projections suggesting drying conditions and others pointing to wetter ones. This uncertainty underscores the importance of strengthening the capacity of  institutions in the Niger Basin to plan water resources investments 42 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 5.1  Support to the Niger River Basin: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Engage in consultative Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) process to prepare By 2020, $1 billion worth of By 2025, $1.5 billion worth of projects a Climate Resilience projects will be operational that will be operational that will increase Investment Plan will increase the resilience to climate the resilience to climate change • Hold donor roundtables change of up to 3 million people, of up to 20 million people, through • Perform technical through improved natural resource improved regulation of water flows activities related to management, irrigation, watershed through multipurpose dams and investment preparation management, and flood protection. other infrastructure, natural resource management, irrigation, watershed management, and flood protection. The enabling environment for The enabling environment for climate- climate-resilient development will resilient development will be enhanced be enhanced by improving the by continuing improvements to the institutional set-up at the national and institutional set-up at the national and regional levels and strengthening the regional levels and strengthening the institutional capacity to predict and institutional capacity to predict and plan for hydrologic variability caused plan for hydrologic variability caused by climate change. by climate change. Main partners Resource mobilization Niger Basin Authority, African Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds Development Bank, and by 2024) CIWA (supporting process) $1 billion $1.5 billion that can deliver the intended development benefits under a wide range of future climates. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Between 2002 and 2008, the Niger Basin Authority (NBA) and its member states undertook a Shared Vision process for the sustainable development of the region. Major outcomes included the Niger Basin Water Charter (approved in 2008) and a Sustainable Development Action Plan (SDAP) (approved in 2007). The SDAP calls for the development of socioeco- nomic infrastructures, the preservation of ecosystems in the basin, capacity building and stakeholder participation, and an $8.2 billion investment program. Several donors—including AFD, AfDB, GIZ, and the World Bank—­ support the NBA and its member states. The World Bank has provided finan- cial support of $451.5 million in lending to countries in the basin through the Niger Basin Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystems Management Program ($444 million) and the Niger River Basin Management Project ($7.5 million, under the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa Fund). It is preparing a third operation, the Economic and  Environmental Rehabilitation of the Niger River in Mali project ($55 million). Building on existing and well-established support for cooperative water and natural resources management and development in the basin, the World Bank, Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 43 in collaboration with a variety of partners, will support climate-­ resilient development in the basin through a combination of infrastructure develop- ment and institutional strengthening. Specific support will be guided by the CRIP, which is under preparation, under the leadership of the NBA, with the full involvement of the riparian countries. The plan, as adopted by the ripar- ian countries, will be presented at the COP21 meeting, along with initial information on funding pledges. Expected Outcomes The CRIP will achieve the following outcomes: •• Improve information to support water management and development decisions by riparian countries, so that they can better predict and h ­ arness available water resources in view of increased variability and changing rainfall patterns. •• Identify institutional needs for information sharing, increase the sustain- ability of water-storage infrastructure, mitigate the impacts of climate variability, generate low-carbon energy, and ensure results and impacts at the grassroots level. •• Develop multipurpose infrastructure for energy, irrigation, transport, and minimum flows. •• Develop run-of-river dams to provide low-carbon energy sources. •• Optimize water storage, in order to improve redistribution and maintain low flows. •• Equip rural poor with small-scale storage options to help withstand water shocks. •• Undertake collective action for erosion control, pollution abatement, fisheries management, and ecosystem conservation. •• Scale up the use of sustainable land management and affordable irriga- tion solutions to enhance the resilience of millions of people. Climate-Related Benefits The main aims of the CRIP are to strengthen the overall resilience of the basin population (through job creation, for example) and to help reduce the climate vulnerability of people and ecosystems to water stress conditions; flooding; deterioration of water quality; degradation of soil, grazing land, and ecosys- tems; and rising sea level. Financing Plan The funding envelope of the CRIP is estimated at $3.1 billion, about $600 million of which has been identified. A rough estimate of investment preparation financing is $50 million. IDA resources can provide the initial 44 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 5.2  Support to the Niger Basin: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 50 Domestic funds are required as co-funding to IDA credits IDA 450 $50 million is in the pipeline for the Mali Niger River Economic and Environmental Rehabilitation Project; $400 million has been requested from the Niger Basin COM Chair to complete phase 2 of the Adaptable Program Loan for Water Resources Development and Sustainable Ecosystem Management (APL WRM-SEM)a Private sector 0 Private sector will be targeted for longer-term funding; no private sector funding is expected for the fast track Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 50 Given the dearth of information and the difficulty of articulating and so forth) the additionality of interventions, the financing plan assumes that adaptation-specific interventions constitute about 10 percent of total financing needs Other development finance 400 ADB, KfW, and other partners financing the Integrated (bilaterals, multilaterals) Development and Adaptation to Climate Change Program (PIDACC) To be determined 50 Total fast track (resources 1,000 raised by 2020) Longer term (additional 1,500 resources raised by 2024) a. The request was included in the letter from the president of the Niger Basin Council of Ministers to President Kim (November 11, 2014) for Phase 2 of the APL WRM-SEM program. The letter included a proposal for interventions in nine Niger riparian countries as a second phase of APL1 in the amount of $400 million. foundation for implementing the plan, but other funding sources will need to be tapped (table 5.2). COP21 will give the Niger Basin countries the opportunity to present their climate resilience needs before the international community, including donors of climate funding, in hopes of attracting financing. Following COP21, investment packages to be submitted to the Green Climate Fund will be defined and donor roundtables organized to identify other sources of funding for the various components of the CRIP. Cofinancing of the first follow-up donor roundtable has already been secured from the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa (ICA). Given that preinvestment preparedness is underdeveloped, resource mobi- lization efforts will target both preparation and investment finance. They will seek to leverage resources from both traditional and new sources. Key Partners The World Bank will deploy comprehensive resources, including both IDA and other parts of the World Bank Group (IFC advisory and investment, MIGA guarantees) to support the objectives outlined above. The African Development Bank is a key partner in this initiative. Other partners also Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 45 include Agence Française de Développement (AFD) and the German devel- opment agencies active in supporting the basin. The Bank will also try to involve emerging partners in the sector, including other multilateral institu- tions, bilateral donors, the Green Climate Fund, and private sector investors. 46 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Géraud Magrin. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. 5.2  Lake Chad Basin The World Bank will support climate-resilient development in the Lake Chad Basin through technical work, investment financing, policy dialogue, and resource mobilization. These efforts will be grounded in existing docu- ments, such as the Water Charter and the Five-Year Investment Program, which will be updated, scaled up, and operationalized (table 5.3). Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Lake Chad is a large body of water in the Sahel region of Africa, at the ­southern fringe of the Sahara Desert. It is a very complex hydrosystem from an ecolog- ical, social, and political standpoint. Its active hydrological basin spreads over 815,000 square kilometers. Chad, Niger, Nigeria, and Cameroon are the lake’s riparian states. The basin is home to about 50 million people, many of them among the poorest in the world. Over the past 50 years, the Lake Chad area has experienced significant climate, hydrological, ecological, and social changes. The lake’s surface, ­ including its marshlands, shrunk significantly, from an average of about 20,000 square kilometers in the 1960s to about 8,000 square kilometers today. As a result, in the early 1970s, the lake transitioned from its original state characterized by one body of open water, to a very different one, dominated by marshlands and of much smaller size. Throughout the last century, and particularly since the 1970s, fishers, farmers, and herders from different ethnic groups migrated to the lake’s shores to exploit its rich natural resources and to flee droughts, famine, and Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 47 Table 5.3  Support to the Lake Chad Basin: At-a-glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Assess priority development and Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) climate resilience issues in Lake • Consensus built around Lake Chad • Water Charter operational Chad assessment, vision, and action plan • Second set of investments • Prepare a priority action plan, to to reach the vision ($600 million) to increase be endorsed by the Lake Basin • Water Charter ratified and the resilience of people and Commission operationalization begun ecosystems around the lake • Implement selected priority • First set of investments ($300 to climate change and other actions included in the plan million) to increase the resilience of stressors implemented people and ecosystems around the lake to climate change and other stressors implemented Main partners Resource mobilization Lake Chad Basin Commission and Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds its member states, AFD, European by 2024) Union, GIZ $300 million $500 million conflicts in other parts of the region. Since the 1980s, armed criminal groups, and more recently, Islamic extremists, have taken refuge around the lake. These changes have created both opportunities and threats. On the positive side, thanks to migrants’ know-how and the fertile land freed up by the lake’s shrinkage, the lake area has been able to provide livelihoods to about 2 million settlers around its shore. It has also become a net exporter of food, contributing to the food security of about 15 million people in the lake’s hin- terlands, including two growing regional metropoles (N’djamena, Chad and Maiduguri, Nigeria). On the negative side, navigability has been reduced, insecurity is hamper- ing development efforts, and the lake is fragile and vulnerable to deteriora- tion. Access to the lake’s natural resources is subject to increasing disputes. Contamination from pesticides is starting to affect fisheries and livestock production. The risk of hydrocarbon contamination is rising as oil exploitation in the region is increasing. The sustainability of current produc- tion systems is not guaranteed, and several Ramsar protected wetlands may be at risk. Despite its socioeconomic and ecological significance and very weak ­ development indicators, the Lake Chad area has attracted relatively little investment from its riparian states or donors. In the face of the additional pressure that climate change exerts on the region’s fragile natural resources, there is an urgent need to identify sustainable management options that will meet the development needs of the local population. Key issues to address include the following: •• Is there scope for promoting further transformation of the lake for productive activities, or would doing so undermine the lake’s ecosystem ­ services and therefore the livelihoods that depend on them? 48 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• Does water contamination from pesticides and oil exploitation pose a potential threat to the lake? •• Is there scope for expanding irrigation, given the modification of the hydrological cycle that climate change will bring about? •• If drying trends continue, should interbasin transfer from the Congo Basin be considered? •• How much groundwater can be safely used? The socioeconomic and ecological importance of the lake and the challenges it faces call for policy and investment action at the regional and national levels as well as sustained military action to reestablish peace. The Lake Chad Basin Commission (created in 1964 to sustainably and equitably manage the basin’s water resources, preserve its ecosystems, and promote regional integration); the basin states; and donors have key roles to play. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience In 2012 the Lake Chad Basin Commission developed a water charter that  refines and complements the principles of and responsibilities for the integrated, equitable, and shared management of water and other natural resources, in order to achieve the sustainable development of the Lake Chad Basin. Since then all member states except the Central African Republic and Nigeria have ratified the charter, but most of its principles still need to be made operational. The commission also developed a five-year investment program for 2013–17. Its objective is to reduce poverty and improve the living conditions ­ of the people in the basin by improving natural resource management and  associated production systems. The plan calls for spending of about $904  million. It was presented at a donors’ roundtable on April 4–5, 2014, in Bologna, Italy, but most of its activities remain unfunded. The reengagement of the World Bank in support of Lake Chad develop- ment was recently approved in the form of a technical assistance, with finan- cial support from the Cooperation for International Waters in Africa (CIWA) catalytic funds. This support will assist riparian countries and the Lake Chad Basin Commission in better understanding the future of the lake and defining a framework for future engagement based on broad consensus. This ongoing technical assistance is intended to provide the strategic foundation for a long- term engagement in the Lake Chad Basin and to guide the preparation of a long-term, multiyear, multicountry program. Technical assistance includes two components. The first involves strength- ening information/knowledge of and building consensus over the challenges facing Lake Chad and their underlying causes (providing answers to some of the questions raised above). The second supports the Lake Chad Basin Commission and its member states in crafting a shared vision for the lake’s development based on the assessment developed in phase 1, as well as in Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 49 preparing a climate resilience action plan to achieve the vision. It is expected that the following activities will be well advanced, or completed, by the COP21 meeting: •• a donor mapping, as a first step toward identifying the Bank’s value added in reengaging and drawing lessons from donors’ projects or programs under implementation •• a framework document for the Lake Chad Climate Resilience Action Plan (Chad-Res), including an assessment of the lake’s current situation, a long-term development vision for the lake, and priority actions to reach that vision •• consultations around the Chad-Res Framework document, to increase country buy-in and support from the international donor community and coordinate and finance the investments proposed •• endorsement of the Chad-Res Framework document by the commission’s ministerial council, before its presentation at COP21. Expected Outcomes The following outcomes are expected within three years of the COP21: •• development and adoption of the Operational Action Plan for Climate Resilience in Lake Chad, which will include the findings of technical work on improved understanding of the lake’s hydro-system, ecosystems, and productions systems and reflect the consensus built on the challenges facing the lake, their underlying causes, and the actions necessary to address them •• mobilization of resources by development partners to fund the Climate Resilience Action Plan •• implementation of the Climate Resilience Action Plan in two phases (the first through 2020, the second through 2025), to enhance the resilience of Lake Chad populations, production systems, and ecosystems to climate change and other stressors and improve the living conditions of the peo- ple living on the shores of Lake Chad. Climate-Related Benefits The proposed actions are expected to increase the resilience of the people and ecosystems around the lake to climate change and other stressors and to maintain or even increase the lake’s contribution to food security in its hinter- lands. More sustainable fishing, agriculture, and cattle-raising practices will make the lake’s population less vulnerable to drought or other hazards. Financing Plan Table 5.4 describes the financing plan. 50 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 5.4  Support to the Lake Chad Basin: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 20 IDA 120 Provisional estimate, subject to validation Private sector 0 Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 30 and so forth) Other development finance 40 AFD has pledged about $100 million for implementation of (bilaterals, multilaterals) the regional component of the five-year investment plan, $40 million of which is assumed to be for first two years To be determined 90 Consultations for further financial support are planned with AFD, GIZ, and the European Union Total fast track (resources raised 300 by 2020) Longer term (additional resources 500 The cost of implementing the action plan is still unknown; raised by 2024) the financing estimated is based on the five-year investment plan Key Partners Key partners include the Lake Chad Basin Commission and its members (including the four riparian countries and the Central African Republic), and technical and financial partners (including AFD, AfDB, the European Union, and GIZ). AFD and the World Bank are supporting the preparation of the assessment, vision, and climate-resilience action plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 51 © Pieter Waalewijn/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. 5.3  Zambezi River Basin The World Bank will support climate-resilient development in the Zambezi River Basin through technical work, investment financing, policy dialogue, and resource mobilization (table 5.5). This support will be integrated as part of the Zambezi River Basin Program, which is financed through a series of projects under the multidonor trust fund for Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA) and the World Bank. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges The Zambezi River Basin is one of the most diverse and valuable natural resources in Africa. Its waters are critical to sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction in the region. In addition to meeting the basic needs of more than 30 million people and sustaining a rich and diverse natural envi- ronment, the river plays a central role in the economies of the eight riparian countries (Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). It provides important environmental goods and services to the region and is essential to regional food security and hydro- power production. The river and its tributaries are subject to strong seasonal variation in the hydrological regime. The cycle of floods and droughts has devastating effects on the people and economies of the region, especially the poorest members of the population. The basin is likely to be severely affected by climate change, as a result of the effects of higher temperatures and decreased rainfall on evaporation and run- off, according to most of the models vetted by the IPCC (2013). In other parts 52 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Table 5.5  Support to the Zambezi River Basin Program: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Develop an Integrated Flow and Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) Information Management System • Integrated flow management • Infrastructure investments to • Enhance catchment management system operational improve resilience to climate and livelihood support • Catchment management variability and change through • Provide technical and financial strategy in place increased energy production, support to the implementation • Large investments (such as increased irrigation, and of the strategic plan, including hydropower, water transfers, improved flood control are in to hydropower, irrigation, water irrigation), and investments in place or in advanced stages transfer, and other strategic community infrastructure (such of preparation infrastructure as small water supply schemes, conservation agriculture, check dams, flood protection) prepared Main partners Resource mobilization Zambezi Watercourse Commission; Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds Joint Operating Technical Committee by 2024) of Dam Operators (JOTC/ZAMDO); $1,117 million $3,600 million riparian states (Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe); nongovernmental organizations of Africa, great uncertainty persists about the pattern of future changes in precipitation. In contrast, the vast majority of models for the Zambezi River Basin project very significant drying trends, with declines in runoff of 40 ­percent or more by midcentury. Sustained economic growth of more than 6 percent a year in many of the riparian states is providing new opportunities and increasing development pressure on the resources of the basin. The combined GDP of the Zambezi River Basin riparian states is estimated at more than $100 billion. Despite this increasing prosperity, poverty is persistent across the basin, and coeffi- cients of inequality in some of the riparian states are among the highest in the world. The Multi-Sector Investment Opportunity Analysis identified more than $16 billion in investments at the prefeasibility or feasibility stage of prepara- tion. Reflecting the dual nature of the regional economy, new investments in large infrastructure coexist alongside a parallel, subsistence economy that is reliant on environmental services provided by the river. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The World Bank is part of a multidonor initiative to support climate-resilient cooperative development in the Zambezi River Basin. The program is guided by an Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) Strategy for the Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 53 Zambezi River Basin (ZAMSTRAT), which provides a guiding vision, along with prioritized activities and projects. The initial phase of support to the Zambezi River Basin Committee (ZAMCOM) focuses on strengthening four key areas: •• regional cooperation and integration, by supporting ZAMCOM’s legal establishment, financial sustainability, delivery of key functions, and establishment of effective partnerships with key institutions throughout the basin •• water resources management, by supporting the public availability of basin-wide data and information, analytical tools for planning for and managing extreme events, and harmonized national transboundary legislation •• water resources development, by supporting a common investment plan- ning framework and advancing investment opportunities with regional benefits •• stakeholder engagement and coordination, by establishing partnerships and effective strategic communications. The first phase of the program involves assisting in the development of a pipe- line of projects and investments that are expected to be implemented in accordance with the strategic plan for the basin being developed with support from CIWA. One investment in the pipeline is the Batoka Gorge hydroelec- tric scheme, envisaged as a 2,400 MW run-of-river plant upstream of the Kariba Dam. The project is being developed by the Zambezi River Authority, an entity run jointly by Zambia and Zimbabwe. Expected Outcomes The potential outcomes envisaged under the program of support over the next 10–15 years are substantial and include the following: •• Poverty will be reduced throughout the basin, as a result of expanded development, and sustainable water resources management. •• Energy security will be enhanced, through $10.7 billion worth of hydro- power investments that yield an additional 35,300 GWh a year of firm energy and an additional 60,000 GWh a year of average energy. •• Agricultural production will increase, enhancing regional food security, through an additional 343,000 hectares increasing the amount of irriga- tion to 775,000 hectares a year (85 percent located in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). •• Employment will Increase, particularly in the agricultural sector, with more than 500,000 jobs created. •• Economic resilience will increase and growth benefits will be sustained, through reduced exposure to floods (avoiding average losses on the order of more than $1 billion a year) and adaptive measures to climate change. 54 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• Regional transport costs and travel times will be reduced, through invest- ments in bridges and navigation. •• Water supplies will be secured to meet urban and industrial demand (more than 1,000 million cubic meters of water a year is proposed to be delivered to Botswana, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe). •• Environmental restoration of the Zambezi Delta and improved fisheries production will be achieved, through the systematic introduction of basin-wide environmental flows in the delta. •• The contributions of tourism and mining to GDP will increase, through integrated, sustainable development. •• Fisheries production will be enhanced, through improved management of water resources. In the lead-up to COP21 (or shortly thereafter), the design framework for the Zambezi Water Information Management System and a consultative frame- work for development of the strategic plan for the Zambezi River Basin will be developed. Within three years of COP21, it is expected that the following outcomes will have been achieved: •• The Zambezi Water Information Management System will be operational, allowing the exchange of data among the eight riparian states. •• A strategic plan will be guiding investments by the riparian states. •• Feasibility studies will have been conducted, financing secured, and construction launched on strategic investments. ­ Climate-Related Benefits The climate-related benefits from the development of information manage- ment systems and tools, along with the strategic plan, are expected to be sub- stantial. Activities will provide a context for assessing climate resilience and introducing appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures toward more resilient, low-carbon growth trajectories. The development of low-carbon hydropower resources in the Zambezi River Basin will help balance the regional power mix and provide for low- carbon development and clean energy options. Development of these hydro- power resources within the context of the strategic plan will provide a series of climate-resilient investment options; improve adaptation measures related to disaster preparedness and enhanced economic and social resilience; and  introduce mitigation measures relating to climate-smart agriculture to improve food security. Financing Plan Table 5.6 describes the financing plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 55 Table 5.6  Support to the Zambezi River Basin Program: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 30 Based on 5 percent of IDA pipeline FY15–18 IDA 120 Water sector support to riparian states Private sector 225 20 percent potential participation in large hydropower projects Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 612 GEF ($12 million) and GCF ($600 million) (both figures to be and so forth) confirmed) Other development finance 130 Based on commitments within the context of the Zambezi (bilaterals, multilaterals) River Basin Program To be determined Total fast track (resources raised 1,117 Includes community investment projects that have been by 2020) informed by the Zambezi Strategic Plan, followed by advancement of investment preparation, and development of integrated information management system Longer term (additional 3,600 Provisional estimate of large infrastructure investment, resources raised by 2024) to be confirmed based on feasibility study carried out in accordance with defined strategic plan Key Partners The Zambezi River Basin Program is guided by member states within the basin through the ZAMCOM Technical Committee, composed of senior offi- cials and the ZAMCOM Secretariat. The committee provides the reference point for support from international cooperating partners (ICPs). A consultative forum of ICPs has been established in accordance with the agreed principles of the SADC framework. The Zambezi-ICP Partnership (ZICP) is a strategic advisory body to the ZAMCOM Secretariat that acts as an interface for policy and technical dialogue between the ZAMCOM organs and the ICPs. ZICP has a range of tasks. One of them is to serve as a resource mobilization mechanism by sharing information on funding gaps and pro- viding a forum for open dialogue, networking, and confidence building, in order to create a shared understanding by the ZAMCOM Secretariat, the ICPs, and other stakeholders on strategic issues related to implementation of the Zambezi Strategic Plan. Active partnerships include the multi-donor trust fund for Cooperation in  International Waters in Africa (CIWA), hosted by the World Bank, and bilateral partnerships with AfDB, DANIDA, DFID, GIZ, and SIDA, among others. 56 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Stephen Ling/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. 5.4  Lake Victoria Basin The World Bank already supports the Lake Victoria Environment Management Program (LVEMP), which promotes various climate-resilient solutions to the environmental challenges in the Lake Victoria Basin. Through the design of a new phase of LVEMP, a climate-resilient development strategy will be drafted as the basis for a model multisector regional adaptation program in an area of critical environmental and social importance (table 5.7). Sectoral Background and Development Challenges The Lake Victoria Basin is a major population and poverty center in Africa and a transboundary natural asset of global importance. The area covers about a ninth of the land area of the East African Community but is home to about a third of its population below the poverty line. The lake supports the world’s largest freshwater fishery, with a total annual landed catch value estimated at about $500 million in revenues, about half of which are export revenues. The establishment of the Nile perch fishery in the 1980s and 1990s provided a resource boom that drew in poor and disadvan- taged people from neighboring countries. The fishery provides livelihood for 3 million people. Large rural populations are also dependent on the degraded lands in the upper basin, particularly in Burundi, Rwanda, and the Kenya highlands. The waters of the lake and its catchment area provide 90 percent of Uganda’s hydropower; most of the hydropower for Burundi and Rwanda; and the water supply to major urban centers, including Kampala, Kigali, Mwanza and Kisumu. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 57 Table 5.7  Support to the Lake Victoria Basin Program: At-a-Glance Summary Activities Expected outcomes • Develop the Lake Victoria Basin Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) climate-resilient development • Adoption of a formal climate- • At least $500 million of climate- strategy resilience policy document and resilience investments made, • Support sustainable land and a financing roadmap by the targeting at least 1 million water management, including Sectoral Council of Ministers for beneficiaries of sustainable land climate-smart agriculture the Lake Victoria Basin management and diversified and sustainable rural energy • Development and adoption of livelihoods in rural areas systems a basin model and monitoring • Significant reductions in nutrient • Protect the ecological and evaluation system to guide loading to Lake Victoria infrastructure, including riparian watershed investments • Rehabilitation of key ecological buffer zones, wetlands, forests, • Implementation of systematic infrastructure in at least three water towers, national parks, watershed management plans by countries and fish nursery grounds, at least three countries • Improvement in resilient and monitor climate-related • Creation of a database of infrastructure and response processes affecting the lake’s key natural assets, including systems to climate and ecology (for example, water environmental and livelihood ecological emergencies in at hyacinths and water quality) services least four countries • Promote resource-efficient • Creation of a monitoring system • Inducement of at least $400 production systems and green of real-time water quality and million in private sector and resilient livelihoods with the water hyacinths investments in resource-efficient private sector • Inducement of at least $200 production and green supply • Improve hydro-met services million in private sector chains and strengthen infrastructure investments in resource-efficient resilience, including maritime production and green supply safety, lake transport chains infrastructure, and urban storm • Improvement of hydro-met water management forecasting in at least three countries • Establishment of an infrastructure resilience inventory Main partners Resource mobilization East African Community, including Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds all five constituent governments by 2024) (Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda); Lake $550 million $500 million Victoria Basin Commission (LVBC) and Lake Victoria Fisheries Organization (LVFO); Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP); DFID, KfW, and other bilateral development agencies; the Nordic Development Fund, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience, and Cooperation for International Waters in Africa (CIWA); private sector The basin is also of biological importance. The largest African Great Lakes— Victoria, Tanganyika, and Malawi—are unique in the number of endemic ver- tebrate species they support. The Afro-montane forests of the highlands on both sides of the basin support some of the most diverse terrestrial habitats in the world. Protected areas cover 25 percent of the basin’s land area and include some of the most iconic parks in Africa, including Serengeti and Virungas. The Lake Victoria Basin is also a global example of environmental degrada- tion. Introduction of the Nile perch was associated with the mass extinction 58 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development of endemic native fish species; perch stocks themselves have now declined to probably less than half of their peak levels, as a result of increased fishing and other environmental stresses. Environmental degradation within the basin poses increasingly broad threats to livelihoods and welfare. Loss of forest cover and erosion of soils has chronic impacts on land productivity; where gullies destroy land, property, and even lives, the impacts are acute. The flow of sediments and other pollut- ants into the basin’s rivers and ultimately the lake reduces the supply of ­potable water and causes algal blooms that are unpleasant for lakeshore communities and limit the tourism potential of the region. One of the most striking indicators of poor ecological health is the rapid colonization of the lake by water hyacinth. Infestations of this invasive float- ing plant periodically block access to kilometers of lakeshore, preventing use of the lake for transport and fishing and posing serious health and safety risks to local inhabitants. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The LVEMP program aims to reduce a range of environmental pressures on the Lake Victoria Basin and improve the welfare of its inhabitants. It supports increased climate resilience in a variety of ways. LVEMP includes three main components. The first—strengthening institu- tional capacity for managing shared water and fisheries resources—builds the  capacity of the regional, national, and local institutions responsible for coordination, research, management of resources, and enforcement of envi- ronmental standards in order to harmonize policy and regulatory standards and undertake ecosystem monitoring and applied research. It includes moni- toring water quality and water hyacinth outbreaks and, in the long run, strengthening hydro-met information systems. The second component—point source pollution control and prevention— focuses on the management of major urban pollution sources from sewage and industrial sources. Improved sanitation, wastewater management, and cleaning of urban drainage channels reduce flood impacts; programs that promote cleaner production by private industries are achieving considerable efficiencies in the use of water and energy resources. This component also includes navigation safety investments that help reduce a frequently fatal ­ climate risk to users of the lake. The third component—watershed management—is being implemented through community-driven investments in more sustainable land manage- ment, rehabilitation of key ecological infrastructure (particularly riparian buffer zones and wetlands), and diversification of sustainable livelihoods. These interventions yield more productive and resilient agriculture and livelihoods for people living within the particularly vulnerable catchments. Downstream they modulate hydrological flows and sedimentation (which increase flood and drought risk) and reduce the nutrient loading into the Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 59 lake (which affects fisheries, potable water supplies, and even [through water ­ hyacinth infestation] access to the lake and the hydrological balance). The current phase of the LVEMP was extended until the end of 2017 in order to allow for preparation of a follow-on investment phase to begin in FY18. In accordance with the Africa Climate Business Plan, the objective is to use this design period to strengthen the climate-resilience components of the next phase and develop an explicit climate resilience strategy for the Lake Victoria Basin as a basis for attracting additional funding. Key initiatives would include the following: •• Development of a Lake Victoria Basin climate-resilient development strategy for eventual adoption by the Sectoral Counsel of Ministers for the Lake Victoria Basin of the EAC. The strategy would be accompanied by a financing roadmap assessing external funding sources. •• Expansion and development of more systematic programs of sustainable land and water management based on erosion and sediment transport models and watershed monitoring and evaluation systems for improved targeting of available resources and prediction and verification of envi- ronmental and livelihood impacts to encourage additional investment. In addition to climate-smart agriculture, potential interventions would include sustainable rural energy systems to reduce pressure on forests from unsustainable wood fuels. The LVEMP has been piloting the intro- duction of biodigesters in cattle-rearing areas as an incentive to increase stall feeding and reduce pressure on forests. Taking this intervention to scale depends on improving its financial returns by reducing installation costs and finding ways to commercialize excess gas. Rwanda provides an example of licensed production of wood fuels from wood lots that could revolutionize charcoal production elsewhere. •• Protection of ecological infrastructure, including riparian buffer zones, wetlands, forests, water towers, national parks, and fish nursery grounds. This effort would start with a comprehensive assessment of ecological assets within the basin, their environmental and livelihood functions, and the pressures they face. It would include development of remote ­ sensing–based monitoring systems for water quality and water hyacinth spread, building on pilot work conducted with the European Space Agency. These ecological processes are influenced by climate factors and may eventually be amenable to hydro-met-linked forecasting rather than just monitoring after the fact. •• Partnering with the private sector to promote green industries. This effort would involve expansion of existing program in resource-efficient produc- tion, coupled with new initiatives to promote green supply chains and develop nature-based enterprises in support of watershed management and resilient livelihoods. Given the scale of the sustainability challenges within the basin, it is critical to actively engage the private sector. So far the resource-efficient production project under LVEMP has leveraged about $30 of private sector investment for every $1 of project expenditure. 60 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• Enhancement of hydro-met knowledge and forecasting services for improved disaster response and infrastructure resilience. This effort would include the modelling of potential climate-induced impacts on lake levels to identify climate threats to coastal infrastructure (including new port infrastructure under the Lake Victoria Transport Project) and assess the vulnerabilities of urban and transport infrastructure to flood- ing. Navigation safety programs are expected to be expanded under the transport project but will require parallel investments in weather fore- casting to improve effectiveness. Climate-Related Benefits Recent climate change and extremes have had significant impacts on agricul- tural production within the basin and caused periodic flooding in numerous areas within it. There is considerable uncertainty over the impacts of future climate change within, but the importance of the balance between direct evaporation and precipitation over the lake and rapid water-level changes in the past suggests they could be severe. Because the lake is large enough to act as a regional climate driver, significant impacts to it could have effects throughout large areas of central Africa and the Sahel. The effects of climate change and environmental stresses are mutually rein- forcing. Land degradation and loss of natural habitats increase the impacts of rainfall extremes both upstream (through reduced retention of soil moisture and nutrients) and downstream (through siltation, flooding, and gully forma- tion). The effects of climate change on fisheries are likely to be exacerbated by overfishing and pollution, through stresses on key nursery grounds and changes in the thermocline and nutrient cycles. Inadequate urban waste man- agement increases the risk of and from flooding, through storm drainage channels blocked with refuse and the health risks from polluted floodwaters. The climate resilience development strategy will provide a model for inte- grated rural and urban resilience, achieving the following: •• improving the land management and ecological infrastructure of key watersheds and their climate-buffering ability •• enhancing the health and resilience of important fisheries •• promoting the diversification of rural livelihoods •• improving the design of port and lakeshore infrastructure •• increasing the efficiency of use of climate-affected water and energy resources by local industries •• reducing key risk factors to urban flooding •• strengthening emergency response. Expected Outcomes The climate-resilient development strategy is expected to substantially increase the volume and coordination of adaptation investments within the basin. Rural resilience interventions could reach 1 million beneficiaries Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 61 by 2025, significantly reducing the nutrient loads reaching Lake Victoria and improving a range of key natural assets. Better information and monitoring systems would allow millions of basin inhabitants to adapt better to climate-related events, including storms and floods as well as induced water quality and water hyacinth events. Assessment of infrastructure vulnerabilities could safeguard new port investments and lead to significant improvements in flood management (for example, improve- ment and maintenance of storm-water drainage) in urban centers with ­several million inhabitants. Financing Plan Table 5.8 describes the financing plan. Key Partners The World Bank will deploy IDA resources through the regional LVEMP ­ program and related operations. Trust fund resources (such as funds from the Nordic Development Fund and CIWA) will augment this support. Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) investment planning processes are supporting efforts in Rwanda and Uganda. The private sector is considered a key source of finance (LVEMP has already leveraged levels of private finance that are comparable to IDA investment). Table 5.8  Support to Lake Victoria Basin Program: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 50 Co-financing of IDA credits IDA 200 Primarily from the next phase of LVEMP (deliverable in FY18), but additional contributions may be available from the Lake Victoria Transport Project and other rural and urban investment projects Private sector 200 Relatively modest expenditure on technical assistance on resource-efficient and cleaner production has already leveraged nearly $100 million in private sector investment under the existing LVMEP program; private sector financing is expected to expand significantly as a wider range of industries and interventions is included in the program Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 0 and so forth) Other development finance 100 AfDB, DFID, KfW, USAID, and other bilateral institutions (bilaterals, multilaterals) Total fast track (resources raised 550 by 2020) Longer term (additional resources 500 raised by 2024) 62 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Experience suggests that private sector investments in resource efficiency and more resilient livelihoods will grow to at least $300 million by 2025. The East African Community, including member governments and techni- cal institutions (particularly the Lake Victoria Basin Commission), is a key counterpart. The Nile Basin Initiative and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program  (NELSAP) will also be engaged in developing strategies, models, and basin information systems. A range of development partners currently fund or are interested in sup- porting related activities within the basin or the African Great Lakes more broadly. They include AfDB, DFID, KfW, SIDA, and the US government. These potential sources of funding, as well as traditional and emerging sources of climate finance, including the GEF and the GCF, will be actively pursued. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 63 © Andrea Borgarello. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 6 Fostering Climate-Smart Ocean Economies in Africa More than 60 percent of the world’s economic output takes place near coastlines. The ocean economy in some African countries contributes as ­ much as 27 percent of revenues and a third of export revenues. For example, an estimated $22 billion a year is derived from the coastal and marine resources of the South West Indian Ocean region. Coastal tourism is the larg- est contributor to GDP in Africa, at more than $11 billion a year. In recognition of the importance of oceans, in 2015 world leaders adopted the  Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 at the UN General Assembly (“Conserve and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources”). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 65 Given the interconnectedness between climate change (SDG 13) and the blue economy, the proposal presented here seeks to foster climate-smart ocean economies in Africa. In 2014 African heads of state and governments pledged to embrace and develop the blue economy concept as a vital part of the future development to be outlined in the African Union’s Agenda 2063. In 2015 the Indian Ocean Rim Association adopted the Mauritius Blue Economy Declaration, which recognizes the interconnectivity of fisheries, infrastructure, energy, and ­seabed mining.1 Table 6.1 describes proposed support to climate-smart ocean economies. Table 6.1  Support to Climate-Smart Ocean Economies: At-a-Glance Summary Activities Expected outcomes • Provide technical assistance and Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) reimbursable advisory services, including • Regional commissions • Regional commissions the following: monitor two fisheries, monitor four fisheries, • a flagship report on climate change and incorporating climate incorporating climate fisheries in Africa, to inform continent- variations into the scientific variations into the scientific wide management of fisheries evidence governing fishery evidence governing fishery • national investment plans for climate- management management resilient fisheries and coastal • Five coastal fishery • Ten coastal fishery livelihoods for the poor (these plans communities develop communities develop would be country led and implemented alternative livelihood/jobs alternative livelihood/jobs by existing national projects) streams streams • a flagship report on climate change • Four countries present • Eight countries present and the blue economy in Africa, to national climate-smart blue national climate-smart blue inform the development of national economy development economy development ocean economy strategies plans to parliament plans to parliament • national climate-smart blue economy investment plans • knowledge exchange among practitioners • Provide investment project finance and fund program-for-results (PforR) operations in support of pilot fisheries, and climate-resilient livelihood projects Main partners Resource mobilization • Governments of blue economy countries Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds (Mauritius and the Seychelles) and by 2024) additional countries that ask to participate $220 million $280 million • West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP): Governments of Cabo Verde, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Senegal, and Sierra Leone • Countries that are part of the South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Program (SWIOFish) and countries that share waters with Africa or are part of the Africa small islands states group (Comoros, Kenya, Madagascar, the Maldives, Mauritius, Mozambique, São Tomé and Príncipe, the Seychelles, Somalia, South Africa, Tanzania, and Yemen) 66 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Over the coming decades and centuries, the health of the ocean will come under increasing stress as a result of rising seawater temperature, ocean acidification, and ocean deoxygenation. Coral bleaching, caused by rising ocean temperatures, is already affecting vast areas of tropical coral reefs, which harbor 25 percent of marine biodiversity. Small island developing states have long been aware of these issues. These challenges are now affecting all of Africa’s coastal states and Africa overall, as fish are a continental asset. Fisheries are directly susceptible to the effects of climate change. Ocean acidification and changes in ocean circulation directly affect the productivity of the ocean and the incomes coastal communities derive from ocean resources. Much of the ocean resource is already degraded; climate change increases the vulnerability of the ocean ecosystem and the communities that depend on it. The authorities and communities lack information on how to change the way  they operate in response to climate change, making it difficult or impos- sible for them to internalize climate resilience and adaptation into their ocean-dependent economic sectors. The World Bank will support studies that fill the gap in knowledge and enhance investments to improve the resilience of fishing communities based on sustainable fisheries management. “Blue ­ carbon” sinks, such as mangrove forests, seagrass beds, and other vegetated ocean habitats, can sequester up to five times the carbon absorbed by tropi- cal forests, for example. Planning and accounting for these services ought to be central to development planning and risk reduction. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The World Bank is providing Mauritius with technical support via the non- lending Building the Ocean Economy in Mauritius project. This support cov- ers bunkering, shipping/sea port–related activities, fisheries and aquaculture, private sector development, renewable ocean energy, education, and marine finance. The goal is to spur growth and sustainable development, create jobs, increase regional cooperation, and build resilience in the face of climate change. A series of diagnostics and policy notes is being prepared, which will serve as a foundation for knowledge exchange with other countries. The Seychelles’ new Ministry of Finance, Trade and the Blue Economy is pursuing its blue economy objectives by focusing on fisheries, aquaculture, and blue bonds. Through the Paris Club, the Seychelles will exchange $82 ­million worth of debt for funds to turn 30 percent of its 1.4 million square kilometer Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) into marine protected areas, half of which will be no-take zones. It will also develop marine spatial planning for the EEZ and the extended continental shelf. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 67 The ocean off the coast of West Africa offers some of the richest fishing grounds in the world. The West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) is helping the countries of the West Africa Regional Fisheries Commission restore and recapture their ocean wealth though a long-term, three-phase approach that involves (a) developing a foundation for managing fisheries and fighting illegal, unreported, and unregulated fishing to prepare for effective management of national fisheries; (b) supporting governance reform, regional integration, and revenue augmentation by investing in the enabling environ- ment; and (c) supporting private sector–led sustainable growth. The program currently includes Cabo Verde, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. Activities that increase the resilience of fishing communities need to be strengthened in each WARFP country. In the Indian Ocean, from Yemen to South Africa and from Comoros to Maldives, the Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth (SWIOFish) program assists countries in managing one of the globe’s most important areas for fisheries and marine biodiversity. The objec- tive is to improve the management effectiveness of selected priority fisheries at the regional, national, and community level. The project is designed to contribute to the World Bank Group’s corporate goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable fashion. It recog- nizes the importance of fisheries as a key contributor to food security and nutrition, the safety net, and job creation for the rural coastal populations of the southwest Indian Ocean, which include some of among the poorest and most vulnerable people in the world to climate change. The project provides support for (a) enhancing regional collaboration among South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission (SWIOFC) countries; (b) improving the poli- cies, strategies, institutions, and legal frameworks necessary to improve the performance of priority fisheries, regional marine environmental health, and resilience to climate change; and (c) increasing value addition and diversify- ing fishers’ livelihoods to reduce poverty and pressure on the region’s fisher- ies, improving the regional business climate, enabling private sector productivity and investment, and supporting public investments critical to a viable private sector. Several African coastal countries have initiatives in the pipeline, are bene- fiting from existing initiatives, or are learning from regional initiatives on the ocean economy. Two examples are the Global Program for Fisheries (PROFISH)2 and the Areas beyond National Jurisdiction Program (ABNJ).3 Expected Outcomes On the analytical side, the expected outcomes concern adoption of the evidence of climate change into the ways in which fisheries and the ocean ­ economy are managed. Fisheries monitored by regional commissions will include climate variations in the scientific evidence governing fishery man- agement, and national climate-smart blue economy development plans will be presented to parliaments. 68 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development On the investment side, the following outcomes are expected: •• Coastal fishery communities will develop alternative livelihood/jobs streams. •• Coastal habitats, including blue carbon and other coastal assets, will be managed by identifying a portfolio of investable projects, while ensuring that local shareholders have a voice in dialogue around the blue economy. •• Investment in climate-smart infrastructure will be made. Climate-Related Benefits Climate-related benefits relate mostly to adaptation. Countries adopting a climate-smart approach to the ocean economy, particularly in fisheries, are ­ expected to become more resilient to changes, because healthier marine resource are more resilient to environmental changes and healthier marine resources generate more revenue, which in turn creates employment. Countries that manage their fisheries at higher abundance levels and with a  better understanding of the changing patterns of fish stocks will become more food secure. Countries adopting climate-smart ocean economy will adapt better to the negative effects of climate change on specific coastal populations. Financing Plan Table 6.2 describes the financing plan. Table 6.2  Support to Climate-smart Ocean Economies: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 20 National contributions and cofinancing IDA 20 IDA countries participating in the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) and the Southwest Indian Ocean Fisheries Governance and Shared Growth Program (SWIOFish) IBRD 10 IBRD countries participating in WARFP and SWIOFish Private sector 0 Climate Finance 35 Estimation based on existing Bank projects financed by GEF (GCF, GEF, CIF, and so forth) Other development finance 20 (bilaterals, multilaterals) To be determined 115 Total fast track (resources 220 Assumes interest of donors, including demand from developing raised by 2020) countries for IDA support, in providing funding to projects with potential for Africa-wide scale-up Longer term (additional 280 resources raised by 2024) Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 69 Key Partners The World Bank has been working with many partners to increase investment in sustainable fisheries and healthy oceans. They include the member coun- tries of the West Africa Sub-Regional Fisheries Commission (CSRP), the South West Indian Ocean Fisheries Commission (SWIOFC), and the Indian Ocean Commission (IOC); associated states, such as São Tomé and Príncipe, in the frame of the African small island developing states group; and the Indian Ocean Rim Association. Notes 1. See http://www.iora.net/media/158070/mauritius_blue_economy_declaration.pdf. 2. Created in 2005, PROFISH is a multidonor trust fund managed by the World Bank to support governance reforms for sustainable fisheries. It works with a range of partners, including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), WorldFish, development organizations, and the private sector. 3. ABNJ aims to improve the sustainable management of fisheries and the conser- vation of biodiversity around the globe. Partners include the Global Environment Facility, the FAO, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and the Global Ocean Forum. 70 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development B2: Physical Capital © Sarah Farhat/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 7 Developing Climate-Smart Cities The World Bank will support climate- and disaster-resilient development in selected Sub-Saharan African cities through policy dialogue, technical work, and investment financing (table 7.1). These efforts will be grounded in techni- cal assistance to develop local climate- and disaster-resilience action plans. Bank resources will finance capacity building; resilient infrastructure, buildings, and services; and partnerships and city networking for knowledge ­ sharing. It will also provide technical and financial support to develop climate-friendly urban transport solutions, such as bus rapid transit, which ­ can both help improve urban mobility and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 71 Table 7.1  Support to Climate-Smart Cities: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Provide $50 million in technical assistance Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) for 30 cities • Capacity building and • Capacity building and • Invest $2 billion to support climate- and planning for climate planning for climate disaster- resilient development in 30 cities resilience and low-carbon resilience and low-carbon development completed in development completed in 20 cities 10 cities • Investment in resilience- • Investment in resilience- building activities ongoing building activities ongoing in 4 cities and initiated in in 11 cities 5 others Main partners Resource mobilization • International partners: AFD, AfDB, C40, Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds Cities Alliance, Global Facility for Disaster by 2024) Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), $1,025 million $1,025 million GEF, GIZ, International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), Resilient Cities initiative, Rockefeller Foundation • Partners within Sub-Saharan Africa: African Water Association (AfWA), African Union Commission (AUC), regional economic communities (RECs), United Cities and Local Government of Africa (UCLGA) Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Africa’s urban transformation from a largely rural population to a predomi- nantly urban one by 2030 presents massive challenges and huge opportuni- ties. If managed well, cities will continue to be engines of growth, stimulating opportunities in a safe and inclusive way. Successful growth will require putting climate and disaster risk mitigation and adaptation agenda at the heart of the development debate. Integrating lower-carbon technologies upstream in the planning process, particularly for long-lived infrastructure, provides opportunities to reap economic, health, air quality, and climate benefits while supporting more sustainable develop- ment patterns. Not taking timely action will lead to increased climatic and disaster impacts. A majority of the World’s 325 million extremely poor people are projected to be living in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030 (ODI 2013). Among the 11 countries at greatest risk of disaster-induced poverty by 2030, 8 (the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Nigeria, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda) are in Sub-Saharan Africa. The urban poor are particularly vulnerable to disaster impacts, because they often live in highly exposed or at-risk areas (wetlands, floodplains, landfills, garbage dumps, rocky areas). Because Africa is the fastest-​ urbanizing continent in the world, with an average urban growth rate of ­ 3.4  percent, the consequences of climate change on cities—especially the poor people who live in them—will be enormous. 72 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Three major support areas are proposed: •• strengthening planning and capacity building in high-risk cities, using the City Strength Diagnostic, a qualitative, rapid diagnostic process that uses a combination of guided interviews, exercises, and review of existing studies to determine sectoral and cross-cutting recommendations, and other risk assessment, planning, and financing tools •• investing in resilient infrastructure (upgrading transport infrastructure and  critical buildings, encouraging climate-resilient land use, improving solid waste management, and adopting integrated watershed management) •• forging partnerships and city networks for knowledge sharing (30 cities will be selected for support, with phasing as indicated in table 7.2). The selection of cities will be made on the basis of size and population growth, disaster and climate risk, and demand (table 7.3): •• Population size and growth: The focus will be on megacities (cities with more than 10 million people), large cities (cities with 1–5 million people), and medium-size cities (cities with 500,000–1 million people) that are growing at more than 3 percent rate a year. Table 7.2  Number of Cities to be Supported by Proposed Program for Creating Climate-Smart Cities Timing Technical assistance Investment in resilience Existing programs 5 4 Fast track (outcomes by 2023) 15 5 Longer term (outcomes achieved 10 11 by 2026) Beyond 2026 0 10 Total 30 30 Note: Table shows estimated number of cities to be supported. Actual number will depend on funding available, risk, and demand. Table 7.3  Typology of African Cities Category Number in 2010 Projected number in 2025 Megacities (>10 million people) and 2 9 very large cities (5–10 million people) Large cities (1–5 million people) 40 71 Medium-size cities 44 71 (500,000–1 million people) Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 73 •• Disaster and climate risk: Cities will be selected on the basis of the severity of the hazard exposure and climatic impact. •• Demand from the city: Willingness and support from the city is crucial for sustained and effective engagement. World Bank presence in the country will also be factored in. Six initiatives to support resilience planning are already under way: •• Urban resilience planning is being conducted and the City Strength Diagnostic used in Addis Ababa and selected secondary cities in Ethiopia. •• Urban poverty and resilience studies are being conducted in Antananarivo, Madagascar and Maputo, Mozambique. •• Flood resilience planning is being done in greater Accra. •• Climate change and disaster risk management multisectoral investment plans are being developed as a part of IDA’s policy commitment to pro- vide an opportunity to support urban resilience planning in cities in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Ghana, Malawi, Mali, and Senegal. •• The GEF sustainable cities program is in effect in Senegal. •• The creditworthiness academy (described below) is engaged in more than 90 municipalities in Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda. Four investment projects are ongoing, and one is being planned: •• The $90 million Senegal Storm Water and Climate Change Adaptation project, focusing on flood prevention and preparedness, is underway in Dakar. •• The $75 million Dar es Salaam Metropolitan Development Project, focused on strengthening institutional and urban management systems, is ongoing in Tanzania. •• The $200 million Ibadan Urban Flood Mitigation Project, focused on flood risk mitigation, is ongoing in Nigeria. •• The $85 million Cities and Climate Change project, focused on flood risk mitigation and preparedness, is ongoing in several cities of Mozambique. •• The $50 million Resilient Cities project is being planned in Sierra Leone to support post-Ebola resilience building. New initiatives include technical assistance of $50 million for 30 cities as well as $2 billion of investments in 20 cities over the fast-track and longer-term phases of the business plan. Funding for additional investments will be made available to 10 cities after 2026. Technical assistance will help selected cities conduct baseline analyses of development challenges, including municipal financing, intergovernmental fiscal transfers, and scenario analyses that will help identify the most sus- tainable cost-effective technology and policy interventions in each city. These data-driven studies will support the development of climate- and disaster-­resilience action plans and lead to the preparation of investment proposals capable of delivering climate- and disaster-resilient development. A portion of the technical assistance will focus on capacity building, helping cities build both the human resource pool and the institutional environment 74 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development they need to craft and implement climate and disaster plans. Key areas of planning that will be supported include the following: •• building vulnerability awareness, by improving the understanding of disaster and climate risk by measuring financial risk and fiscal implica- tions and assessing physical risk, governance, and systems •• strengthening emergency management and response planning, by improving channels, facilities, equipment, and protocols to ensure smooth deployment under high-risk circumstances and creating a web- based open data-sharing platform to capture postdisaster decisions, interactions, and changes over time •• identifying resilience-building investments, including investments that improve fiscal health and land use, services, and infrastructure planning. Potential risk-reduction measures include enforcement of resilient pub- lic infrastructure, permitting, and construction; risk-informed infra- structure investments; and risk transfer and management strategies, such as climate and disaster reserve funds, disaster- and climate-linked social protection facilities, public asset catastrophe risk pools, and private property catastrophe risk pools. Technical assistance will build on the following tools, which are already being used: •• City Strength Diagnostic: This tool brings together multiple line minis- tries, departments, and agencies with academic institutions to identify opportunities to increase the social, financial, and physical resilience to disaster and climate risk through hard (infrastructure) and soft (policy) measures and integrate systems-oriented solutions into national and local development planning. •• City Creditworthiness Initiative: This tool, which helps cities access financ- ing, has become an integral part of the World Bank’s sustainable urban development strategy. It provides local authorities with comprehensive, hands-on, long-term support that helps them (a) increase their  credit- worthiness by strengthening their financial performance; (b) develop an enabling legal, regulatory, institutional, and policy framework for respon- sible subnational borrowing through reforms at the national level; (c) improve the “demand” side of financing by developing sound, cli- mate-smart projects that foster green growth; and (d) improve the “sup- ply” side of financing by engaging with private sector investors. The initiative comprises two primary components, credit worthiness acade- mies and creditworthiness implementation programs. City creditworthi- ness academies are hands-on learning programs that teach city leaders the fundamentals of creditworthiness and municipal finance. They serve as the launching point for city creditworthiness implementation programs. •• Low-carbon planning to mitigate carbon emissions and achieve ­ compact urban form: Climate Actions for Urban Sustainability (CURB) is a new Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 75 scenario planning tool supporting low-carbon planning in cities. Developed jointly by the World Bank, C40, AECOM, and Bloomberg Philanthropies, it supports the development of more compact and energy-​efficient development (reduced sprawl), which could reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 39 percent. •• City climate planner certification: This tool (under design by the Bank, in collaboration with other international institutions) will seek to build local capacity through training programs. Certification will focus on local emissions inventories, the foundation of low-carbon action plans. In parallel, the Bank will provide technical and financial support to develop climate-friendly urban transport solutions, such as bus rapid transit (BRT), which can both help improve urban mobility and reduce greenhouse gas emissions (box 7.1). Box 7.1  Developing Bus Rapid Transport Systems in Lagos With an estimated 25 million people, Lagos, Nigeria is one of the largest and fastest-growing megacities in the world. Before development of the bus rapid transport (BRT) solution, city pub- lic transport was limited to 75,000 unreliable, expensive, and polluting mini-buses (danfo) and shared taxis (kabu-kabu), which together made 16 million trips daily. The poor half of the pop- ulation spent a fifth of its disposable income on transport. A typical journey from the main resi- dential areas to Lagos Island took two hours. The World Bank–financed Lagos Urban Transport Project identified bus services as a key compo- nent of a plan to overhaul the transport system. BRT is a roadway-based rapid transit system that looks and behaves like a subway but offers high-capacity rapid transit services on dedicated lanes in city streets rather than underground. In March 2008, this 22-kilometer project connecting Lagos mainland with the island became the first dedicated bus route in Sub-Saharan Africa. The BRT runs 16-hours a day, using 220 buses to move more than 200,000 passengers daily. In its first two years of operation, it moved more than 120 million passengers. The World Bank provided technical advice and a $100 million IDA credit. As a result of the project, journey time was reduced by an average of 25 minutes from one end percent of the route to the other, and transit fares fell by more than half. The BRT carries 25 ­ of  all passenger traffic along the corridor while accounting for just 4 percent of vehicles. generated 2,000 jobs for drivers, bus conductors, inspectors, mechanics, and ticket sellers It ­ and another 10,000 indirect jobs to operate formal and informal park-and-ride facilities and mini-fast-food services. In addition to these social benefits, the BRT project has reduced CO2 emissions by 13 percent and greenhouse gas emissions by 20 percent. Wait time has been cut from 45 to 10 minutes, reducing the exposure of passengers to pollution, thereby reducing the incidence and severity of respira- tory diseases. 76 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Expected Outcomes Programs are expected to yield benefits related to efficient urban form, strengthen the tax base and increase access to municipal bonds, and improve cities’ capacity for integrated risk management, including man- agement of natural and human hazards. Specific benefits include (a)  enhanced adaptation and mitigation planning and implementation capacity of local city governments and key stakeholders; (b) more resilient buildings, infrastructure, and services, particularly optimized transport ­ services; (c) better preparedness for hazards, such as floods, water scarcity, and ­ sea-level rise, including better emergency response capacity; and (d) heightened awareness and greater public involvement in resilient plan- ning and implementation. Climate-Related Benefits The proposed activities will benefit 20–25 of the Sub-Saharan African cities at greatest risk from climate change, home to some 62 million people. Major climate benefits include the following: •• Adaptation to climate change: Planning for and adapting to climate and disaster impacts as well as disaster preparedness, long-term cost sav- ings from the deployment of early warning and response systems to better respond to emergencies, more robust technology and infrastruc- ture that is better capable of withstanding climate-related and disaster risks, and improved public health from the strengthening of local health systems to ensure that they are better able to address climate-related risks •• Mitigation of climate change: Low-carbon development; long-term cost savings from the deployment of more energy-efficient technologies; reduced transport-related energy use; improved air quality, from the use of cleaner fuels and more efficient technology; improved urban environment, from the use of more efficient solid and liquid waste ­management systems; and greater social inclusion, through the ­creation of  more comprehensive, accessible and cleaner public transportation networks. Financing Plan Table 7.4 describes the financing plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 77 Table 7.4  Support to Climate-Smart Cities: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 20 Estimated based on 5 percent of IDA funds IDA 550 Estimated based on potential operations in FY17, including potential projects with focus on urban resilience in Ethiopian cities; Antananarivo, Madagascar; Accra, Ghana; and cities in Liberia and Sierra Leone Private sector 0 Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 0 and so forth) Other development finance 0 To be determined 455 Funding required for fast track Total fast track (resources raised 1,025 by 2020) Longer term (additional 1,025 resources raised by 2024) Key Partners Key international partners include the AFD, the AfDB, C40, the Cities Alliance, the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), the GEF, GIZ, the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (ICLEI), the Resilient cities Initiative, the Rockefeller Foundation, and UN Habitat. Partners within Sub-Saharan Africa include the African Water Association (AfWA), African Union Commission (AUC), regional economic communi- ties (RECs), United Cities and Local Government of Africa (UCLGA). 78 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Nicolas Desramaut/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 8 Strengthening the Climate Resilience of Coastal Zones in West Africa The Bank will help increase the resilience of coastal assets in West Africa to climate and other natural hazards through a mix of technical assistance and investments that will seek to preserve and rehabilitate the natural coastal resources essential for livelihoods; spur economic development and increase social welfare; and support the sustainable development of key growth ­sectors, such as fisheries, tourism, and industry. The regional dimension of  coastal degradation calls for both national and regional dialogue, at the policy and the technical level. Table 8.1 summarizes the proposed interventions. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 79 Table 8.1  Support to Addressing Coastal Erosion in West Africa: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Provide technical assistance in the following Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) areas: • Measures in place to reduce • Measures in place to • national and regional policy dialogue, rate of erosion in 30 percent reduce rate of erosion stakeholder engagement, assessment of identified coastal erosion in at least 70 percent of cost of coastal degradation, data hotspotsa and flood risks for of coastal erosion and knowledge generation for adaptive 30 percent of the population hotspots and flood risks coastal management, and decision- in priority flooding areasb for at least 70 percent making tools • Environmentally sustainable of the population in • preparation of climate-resilient coastal livelihood alternatives priority flooding areas development and investment plans implemented to benefit 50 • Integrated and resilient • identification and provision of sustainable deprived and/or vulnerable coastal management livelihoods alternatives to the continued coastal communities governance schemes degradation of coastal areas, including • Decision-Support Coastal in place in participating control of sand mining Information Monitoring countries • Invest in hard and green infrastructure: System in place in all • Hard infrastructure: Where required, participating countriesc construct transportation networks, piers, artificial reefs, groins, and other erosion and flooding management infrastructure; transportation networks • Green infrastructure: Preserve and expand areas with green or natural infrastructure (mangroves, sand dunes, vegetation, coastal aggregates, coastal forest, lagoons and coastal swamps, water plants, and so forth) that provide services that manage coastal erosion and flooding Main partners Resource mobilization Dialogue is underway with a number of Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional partners, including WAEMU, NDF, GIZ, the funds by 2024) French government, USAID, and IUCN $450 million, including $150 $550 million, including million for technical assistance $150 million for technical assistance a. Hotspots are defined as areas with high erosion rates that threaten priority economic or livelihood assets. b. Investments may include construction of storm water canals and drainage systems; management of all types of waste-causing degradation of natural and economic assets for livelihoods, public health, and tourism; and installation of disaster-risk management systems. c. Technical assistance may include making data available for decision making, clarifying institutional roles required in translating biophysical trends into budgets and actions, and preparing national or subnational Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plans. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges The West African coastal area is one of the most rapidly urbanizing areas in the world. It is home to major industries, including tourism, agro-industry, and off-shore petroleum exploration and production, as well as city and ­ seaside residences. About 56 percent of the GDP of West African coastal states originates in coastal areas.1 About 31 percent of West Africa’s popula- tion and 51 percent of its urban population live along the coastline. Two major climate-related issues threaten the sustainability of West Africa’s coastal areas: erosion and flooding. Countries face severe shoreline losses, as 80 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development a result of coastal erosion, which is expected to worsen with sea-level rise. People’s livelihoods and health are at risk as a result of floods caused by severe weather events and poor infrastructure and planning. Human activity and climate change cause shoreline recession. The artificial stabilization of the shoreline; the deterioration of natural formations, such as mangroves; the construction of major infrastructure that interrupts sediment flow; the extraction of materials; and the multiplication of dams deprive these fragile coastal areas of important sediment deposits. Lack of coordination of anti-erosion solutions at the local, national, and international levels com- pounds the problem. The poorest and most marginalized populations are most vulnerable to erosion, which is likely to intensify in the future. A combination of factors causes coastal flooding. Rapid and often unplanned urbanization and settlement on floodplains and other risk-prone areas cause significant conversion of the natural landscape that once pro- tected against erosion and flooding. Lack of waste collection services increases vulnerability to flooding, as waste, in particular plastic, ends up clogging urban drainage canals and coastal lagoons. Excessive solid waste becomes a health hazard in urban neighborhoods and unplanned settlements and slums. Climate change scenarios for West Africa suggest an increase in the fre- quency and intensity of tidal waves and storm surge, which will exacerbate coastal erosion. They suggest that a sea-level rise of one meter would cause the loss of 18,000 square kilometers of land, exacerbating damage to infra- structure and displacing populations. Coastal zone pressures also affect the ability of regional fisheries to maintain healthy fish stocks and remain relatively unattended. Coastal habitats serving as refuges and nurseries are being degraded, as a result of mangrove harvest- ing, petroleum refining, land-based marine pollution, and other factors. Roads are particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding. Without action, the costs to road users of climate-related incidents is estimated to increase by up to 30 percent by 2050. In Ghana the estimated cost of adapting the road network is up to $1.1 billion (in 2009 net present value terms). Increased maintenance costs greatly exceed the costs of changing road designs (World Bank 2010c). Upstream diagnostics to identify critical vulnerabilities in the road network can ensure that technical solutions are built into network design. With the support of the World Bank, several countries are developing methodologies to assess the vulnerability of road systems (box 8.1). The Bank will explore whether such instruments could be used in the Sub-Saharan African countries that are most exposed to coastal erosion and flooding. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience In 2007 the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) launched and implemented a regional program to fight coastal erosion. The program sponsored a regional shoreline monitoring study and the drawing Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 81 Box 8.1  Increasing the Resilience of the Road System in Morocco Morocco is facing extreme climate events that appear to have increased in frequency and intensity over the past decade. Since 2009 the cost to repair roads affected by extreme climate events has been about $400 million, $300 million of which was taken from the road maintenance budget. Intense rainfall led to large-scale mudslides, as well as flooding and road erosion. The Rabat- Casablanca motorway was severally eroded, and many poor rural communities were temporarily isolated from access to commercial and urban centers. In 2010 the Moroccan authorities requested support from the World Bank to study the adaptation of the transport sector to climate change. Four road ­sections were selected for study. A risk assess- ment was performed for each road to identify critical points and propose engineering solutions to increase the resilience of the roads to extreme climate events. Solutions focused on improving the hydrological and geotechnical conditions of the roads and identifying technical solutions for more resilient pavement. A simplified guide was ­ prepared for the Road Directorate, including technical norms for building, rehabilitating, and maintaining road infrastructure. up of a management scheme for West Africa’s coastal areas. This work was prepared by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The 2011 Dakar conference of West African environment ministers from 11 countries adopted the IUCN management scheme for West Africa,2 which provides a thorough diagnosis of coastal areas and a detailed review of risks.3 As part of the IDA17 Replenishment, the Bank committed to scale up support to IDA countries to develop and implement country-led multisec- toral plans and investments for managing climate and disaster risk in devel- opment in at least 25 additional countries. For 5 of the 15 countries selected in Africa (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Mauritania, São Tomé and Principle, and Togo), coastal erosion was identified as a priority area to be addressed by the multisector plans. In 2014 the Bank started the West Africa Coastal Areas (WACA) Program, in partnership with WAEMU and the Nordic Development Fund (NDF). The program offers technical assistance in response to countries’ demand to combat coastal erosion and flooding. It includes three axes of intervention, ­ in support of regional coastal shoreline monitoring and management, national integrated coastal zone management planning, and preparation of specific multisectoral investment plans. The program will complement other initiatives, such as the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP), which is addressing issues such as ille- gal fishing, overfishing, and sector governance issues. Investment plans include hard infrastructure and green infrastructure. Hard infrastructure includes construction of transportation networks, piers, artificial reefs, groins, and erosion and flooding preventive infrastructure. Green infrastructure involves increasing and preserving areas with green or natural infrastructure (mangroves, sand dunes, vegetation, coastal aggregates, coastal forest, lagoons 82 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development and coastal swamps, water plants, and so forth) that prevent coastal erosion and flooding. Expected Outcomes Fast-track expected outcomes (to be achieved by 2023) include the following: •• Rates of erosion will be reduced in 30 percent of identified coastal erosion hotspots. •• Flood risks will be reduced for 30 percent of the population in priority flooding areas. •• Decision-Support Coastal information Monitoring Systems will be in place in all participating countries. Climate-Related Benefits Through monitoring and actions to preserve mangroves, climate-resilient and low-carbon management of coastal areas in West Africa will ensure the conservation of many species specific to this type of environment. Such man- agement may also reduce the impacts of sedimentation on biodiversity. Management of liquid and solid waste is necessary to maintain a healthy and productive coastal environment, to benefit biodiversity habitat, ecosys- tem functions, and reproduction of fishery resources. Removal of solid waste that is clogging drainage systems will prevent severe flooding. Investments in climate-resilient infrastructure is expected to increase the socio-economic resilience of coastal communities and nations. Financing Plan Table 8.2 describes the financing plan. Key Partners Key partners are defined here as institutions that have indicated interest in exploring participating in the WACA Program. They include the WAEMU, a key convening organization in West Africa. NDF provided the seed ­ funding  to initiate critical technical assistance in four countries, based on country demand. The French government has indicated interest in exploring options for collaboration. USAID has an ongoing program in Ghana that is aligned with WACA objectives and has the potential to be scaled up region- ally. In addition to the support of countries under the WACA Program, the proposed actions are supported by GIZ, under the Africa Climate Investment Readiness Partnership. It is expected that the IUCN will be interested in participating as well. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 83 Table 8.2  Support to Addressing Coastal Erosion in West Africa: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 60 Given the seriousness of the situation in some countries, domestic resources are expected to be mobilized, as co-financing of investments by development organizations. IDA 150 Interventions will be multisectoral and mainstreamed in other Global Practice operations, such as Urban, Transport, Tourism, Trade, and Competitiveness. Private sector 0 The private sector is not expected to contribute, at least not during the fast-track phase. Climate finance (GCF, 90 GEF financed a regional technical assistance program on the GEF, CIF, and so forth) Gulf of Guinea ecosystem (under the International Waters Focal Area), which produced country-specific investment plans. The GEF Secretariat indicated preliminary interest in financing a follow-up investment program. The estimated amount depends on the level of co-financing. Other development 150 WAEMU led an operation that developed the regional coastal finance (bilaterals, management scheme; it is now mobilizing resources to multilaterals) implement the scheme, including via ministerial dialogue on climate change with ministers of finance, agriculture, and environment. Ongoing discussions with the French government, USIAD, and the West African Development Bank could lead to the mobilization of additional resources. To be determined Total fast track 450 (resources raised by 2020) Longer term 550 (additional resources raised by 2024) Notes 1. Coastal areas are defined as the area between 50 meters below mean sea level and 50 meters above the high-tide level or extending landward to a distance kilometers from shore (United Nations Millennium Ecosystem Assessment). 100 ­ 2. Déclaration des ministres en charge de l’environnement et de l’érosion côtière à Dakar, Sénégal, mai 2011. 3. https://www.iucn.org/fr/propos/union/secretariat/bureaux/paco/programmes​ /programme_marin_et_cotier__maco/projets/thematique__amenagement​ _integre_du_littoral_/erosion_cotiere_et_schema_damenagement_du_littoral​ _ouest_africain/. 84 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development B3: Human Capital © Sarah Farhat / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 9 Boosting Social Protection The Bank will support the expansion and strengthening of social protection system as a way to increase the resilience of vulnerable groups to climate vari- ability and change. Support will focus on a set priority countries in the Sahel and other parts of the sub-continent. Table 9.1 describes the proposed programs. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 85 Table 9.1  Support to Social Protection Programs: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Support activities that reduce sensitivity Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) to climate-related shocks (soil • Increase in the number of direct • Increase in resilience conservation, watershed management, project beneficiaries and the among poor households development of irrigation channels, share of female beneficiaries across the Sahel region, water conservation, better cropping, across all countries as the number of people enclosures, better food storage • Increase in the percent of covered by adaptive facilities, rain water capture) households with asset value social protection • Create registry systems and targeting above critical threshold programs rises of people who are at risk because of • Increase in the percent of • Registration of and climate-related events households eating at least three access to safety net • Put into place early warning systems meals a day support by all at-risk • Provide training on climate-friendly • Increase in the percent of people people livelihood activities and disaster risk engaging in diversified, climate- • Improvement in delivery management and risk insurance beneficial livelihoods (off-farm of cash transfers • Implement green public works (soil and on-farm) and other safety net conservation, watershed management, • Knowledge products for programs development of irrigation channels, adaptive social protection and • Improvement water conservation, better cropping, direct support to development in international enclosures, better food storage of social protection strategies collaboration on early facilities, rain water capture) (incorporating climate change warnings • Provide livelihood support, including by adaptation and disaster risk encouraging savings and disaster risk management) that inform and insurance, building household assets, improve government policy/ preventing asset erosion as a result of strategy drought through alternative sources • Provision of just-in-time technical of income, supplementing savings assistance and capacity and income with grants to support building for adaptive social investments in livelihoods, and reducing protection that improves design risk exposure and implementation capacity for adaptive social protection programs and systems • Knowledge products and just- in-time technical assistance for adaptive social protection that leads to development of innovative approaches Main partners Resource mobilization • Ministries of finance and economic Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional planning, social protection, labor, funds by 2024) environment, agriculture, water, urban $480 million $960 million planning • DFID, Canadian Foreign Affairs and Development, ECHO, European Commission, European Union, FAO, Irish Aid, JICA, SIDA, UNDP, UNICEF, UNHCR, USAID, WFP, NGOs Sectoral Background and Development Challenges The impacts of climate change and natural disasters will disproportionately affect the poor. Limited savings and access to finance inhibit poor households’ ability to respond to and recover from disasters and to make the investments necessary to adapt to climate change. Poor households may be compelled to employ 86 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development harmful coping strategies, such as taking out high-interest loans they cannot repay, selling productive assets for immediate liquidity, and removing children from school so that they can provide additional household income. All of these actions can have a lasting and scarring effect on the affected individuals, house- holds, and society. They threaten to undo years of hard-won development gains. Vulnerabilities among the poor to the impacts of climate change are espe- cially high in many parts of Africa. Across most of the region, increases in agricultural productivity have been the primary driver of poverty reduction. Forecasted climate change impacts highlight sharp reductions in agricultural yields in the face of erratic precipitation and increases in the number and severity of extreme weather events, including floods and droughts. The poor often live in locations that are more exposed and vulnerable to the impacts of disasters and climate change. When severe flooding hit Malawi in 2014, for example, the worst-­ affected regions had headcount poverty rates of nearly twice the national average. Social protection can significantly increase the resilience of poor and vul- nerable households by responding to disasters and building resilience at the household level so that households are better equipped for risk and better able to respond to disaster and adapt to climate change. Formal social protection instruments, although growing in coverage across the region, tend to be small, fragmented, and largely donor driven, however (although there are some notable exceptions). At the same time, the more widely used traditional cop- ing mechanisms with which poor households manage shocks—assistance from the family or the community in times of need—are often overwhelmed by covariate climate-related shocks and are not sufficient to meet the chal- lenge of adaptation. Consequently, humanitarian relief is the most prevalent form of assistance for poor populations in many African countries. This relief is unpredictable, does not address underlying vulnerabilities, and often reaches beneficiaries only after a lengthy appeal process, by which time the worst impacts of negative coping have often already been experienced. In the face of climate change and increased climate-related shocks, it is important to increase the scale and scope of social protection systems across Africa. Social protection systems are being built in a number of countries, including Ethiopia, Kenya, Tanzania, and Rwanda. The World Bank has been a major partner in most of these efforts, providing strategic and design advice, technical assistance, and financing and distilling and brokering knowledge on these programs. Increasingly, these social protection programs are being explicitly linked to the challenge of climate change and designed with flexibil- ity, scalability, and adaptive capacity. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Adaptive social protection (ASP) is a new integrated approach that can help countries address the challenges of adaptation and climate/disaster risk management. ASP programs are flexible social protection programs that can ­ Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 87 protect poor households from climate and other shocks before they occur (through predictable transfers, the building of community assets, and other programs that help vulnerable people cope) and scale up to respond to extreme events when they hit. ASP programs are implemented in a way that avoids having an adverse impact on the environment or creating perverse incentives and thus resulting in maladaptation. An ASP system may include the following features: •• safety nets programs that can be easily scaled up to respond to climate-­ related shocks (the main instruments for responding to shocks include conditional and unconditional cash transfers for the poorest people and for people affected by shocks and public work programs, which can support the development of climate-resilient infrastructure in vulnera- ble areas) •• complementary activities, such as training on basic skills and livelihood diversification, sanitary and health practices, and nutrition awareness programs, to strengthen the human capital and resilience of the poor. •• linkages to early warning and climate information systems, which can be used for targeting and planning purposes and for helping design effective emergency response and adaptation programs. •• other formal and informal insurance or risk-financing mechanisms that may complement and support social protections systems to build long- term resilience. •• targeting mechanisms that help identify the people most vulnerable to natural hazards and climate change–related risks, so that information can target the people most at risk of being hit by these types of shocks and quickly scale up a program once disaster hits. •• other building blocks that form part of the development of comprehen- sive adaptive social protection systems, including management informa- tion systems, payment systems, and monitoring and evaluation. Expected Outcomes The expected outcome of this component of the business plan is an increase in the number of people covered by ASP programs across Sub-Saharan Africa. Intermediate outcomes include the following: •• Government policy/strategy informed: Government policy/strategy will be informed through the delivery of knowledge products for ASP and direct support to the development of social protection strategies (incorporating climate change adaptation and disaster risk management). •• Client capacity increased: The design and implementation capacity of ASP programs and systems will be strengthened through provision of just-in- time technical assistance and capacity building. •• Knowledge deepened: The exchange and dissemination of best-practice examples of ASP initiatives with clients will be facilitated through a 88 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development regional platform for knowledge exchange and the dissemination of success stories and lessons learned. ­ •• Innovative approaches and solutions generated: New innovative approaches will be developed through support to knowledge creation and just-in-time technical assistance for ASP. Climate-Related Benefits ASP initiatives have the potential to directly increase resilience and promote adaptation at the household level through three channels (box 9.1 exemplifies the case of Ethiopia): •• the scale-up of operations after a shock hits, in order to deliver assistance to affected poor households in a timely and predictable manner •• public works initiatives that can help address drivers of vulnerability and promote adaptation to climate change through projects that target water insecurity, soil erosion, and carbon capture •• a permanent program for the poorest that helps build resilience and thus reduces the need for emergency response. Box 9.1  Responding to Crises and Building Resilience in Ethiopia Ethiopia’s ASP system channels funding from national and global partners into a set of programs that allows it to scale up in response to severe droughts, such as the one that hit the Horn of Africa in 2011. A combination of initiatives, including temporary employment and cash assistance, pre- vented many poor, food-insecure families from starving. Ethiopia was the only affected country that did not see an increase in its poverty rate as a result of the drought. In addition to responding to crises, Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) delivers public works that have allowed poor communities to directly engage in the process of adapt- ing to climate change. More than 60 percent of the program’s public works subprojects tar- get soil and water conservation, strengthening both livelihoods and resilience to the impacts of variable rainfall. PSNP projects have helped construct infrastructure that increases water retention, with positive spillover effects for livelihoods. PSNP participants have constructed 600,000 kilometers of soil and stone bunds, which enhance water retention and reduce soil and water run-off. Small-scale irrigation from water sources developed by the PSNP has helped 4–12 percent of households expand livestock holdings, increasing incomes by 4–25 percent. PSNP soil erosion and water conservation projects have led to significant and visible increases in wood and herbaceous vegetation cover and a broader diversity of plant species, regreening previously desolate areas. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 89 Table 9.2  Support to Social Protection Programs: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 IDA 365 Financing subject to country prioritization from IDA17 or IDA18 allocations Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 45 Financing from GCF has been applied for and so forth) Other development finance 70 Support from the Sahel Adaptive Social (bilaterals, multilaterals) Protection Program Private sector NA To be determined NA Total fast track (resources raised 480 by 2020) Longer term (additional resources 960 raised by 2024) Financing Plan Table 9.2 describes the financing plan. Key Partners Key partners include the ministries of economic planning and development, finance, social protection, labor, environment, and agriculture; directorates of disaster risk management; the Canada Department of Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development, DANIDA, DFID, ECHO, the European Union, the European Commission, FAO, JICA, Irish Aid, the Netherlands, SIDA,UNCHR, UNDP, UNICEF, USAID, the WFP; and NGOs. 90 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Sarah Farhat/World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 10 Addressing Drivers of Migration Climate change will have profound effects on migration flows in Africa, through its influence on a range of the phenomenon’s economic, social, and political drivers. The World Bank will support a set of strategic activities focused on understanding and addressing the multiple drivers of migration and their complex, interactive effects (table 10.1). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 91 Table 10.1  Support to Addressing Drivers of Migration: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Develop strategic operations or Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) components in ongoing operations in the • Government policies and • Design and implementation Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa strategies related to climate capacity for addressing • Build the evidence base and establishing a change adaptation and mixed migration and knowledge partnership migration are informed strengthening resilience • Pilot and promote innovation on mixed through creation of key at the local level is migration (complex population movements, knowledge products, strengthened through the including refugees, asylum seekers, operational innovations, provision of just-in-time economic migrants, and people displaced and knowledge exchanges technical assistance and by natural disasters or climate change) • Knowledge generation, capacity building exchange, and application • New innovative approaches is facilitated among global are developed through and local partners related support to knowledge to critical topics creation and just-in-time technical assistance for addressing the drivers and impacts of migration Main partners Resource mobilization • Ministries of finance and social welfare Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds • Lake Chad Basin Commission by 2024) • AFD, CAPP2, Centre de Recherches $616 million $970 million Internationales (Sciences Po), CIWA, Feinstein International Center, GFDRR, GPFD, the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID), IOM, Institute of Research for Development, KNOMAD, Royal Geographical Society, Stockholm International Water Institute, UNEP, UNESCO, UNHCR, United Kingdom and partners associated with the UK Government Office for Science Project on Migration and Global Environmental Change, UNOCHA Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Environmental change has always been a driver of human mobility. However, there is growing evidence that climate change, climate-induced events, and environmental factors are likely to play an increasingly important role in influencing migration, both within developing regions and from developing to developed regions. Climate change is expected to affect all forms of migra- tion in Africa–internal and cross-border, short and long distance, temporary and permanent, voluntary and forced—with negative impacts on millions of poor people in Africa. In affected areas, it could undermine and reverse much of the development progress that has been achieved in the last two decades. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that African societ- ies must prepare for inevitable changes in the climate during the next few decades and that climate change will amplify existing stresses on water avail- ability and agriculture and affect public health. 92 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Box 10.1  Drought, Migration, and the Seeds of Conflict A mix of droughts, governance failure, and conflict led to massive displacements in Somalia in 2011. A long-term trend in increasing aridity and poor water management has significantly reduced Lake Chad, reducing its area from 25,000 square kilometers in the early 1970s to approx- imately 2,500 square kilometers today. The shrinking of the lake has impaired fishery livelihoods in the area, forcing communities to migrate to other areas, where they compete with hosting com- munities for already scarce resources. Climate change has increased the intensity and frequency of seasonal flooding, severely affecting large areas in southern Nigeria and northern Cameroon, leading to the short- and long-term displacement of thousands of people and the resettlement of communities. Livelihoods-driven migration leads to disputes and conflicts between displaced population and host communities, fueling existing localized conflicts and creating conditions for disputes across borders. These disputes have spawned instability that has allowed movements like Boko Haram to take root. Numerous studies, including the World Development Report 2011: Conflict, Security, and Development, have also suggested that climate change and envi- ronmental degradation can contribute to increased social tension. Environmental stresses are “threat multipliers”—factors that interact with other risk drivers and sources of vulnerability. A number of studies conclude that environmentally induced scarcity of resources, in combination with socioeconomic, political, institutional, and societal vulnerabilities, can exac- erbate fragility in states and societies, creating conditions conducive for con- flict and large-scale migration. Several regional and national assessments on forced displacement and mixed migration in Africa (box 10.1) document how extreme events such as drought and floods have profound negative impacts on livelihood opportuni- ties and productivity, which in turn feed into drivers for instability, conflict, and forced and economic displacement, deepening conditions of poverty and vulnerability. Environmental change will affect the nature of migration and migration flows, both now and in the future, through its influence on a range of eco- nomic, social, and political drivers that themselves affect migration. The need to understand and address the multiple drivers of migration and their com- plex, interactive effects is urgent. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Addressing these challenges calls for diagnostics and targeted knowledge exchange to inform the design of responsive programming and dialogue with country clients and leverage new and additional sources of finance to Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 93 support resilience building at the local, national, and regional levels through appropriate policy, institutional, and investment responses. The Global Practice team working on Social, Urban Rural and Resilience (GSURR) in the Africa Region will work with key internal and external partners to deliver innovative joint operations to strengthen social and economic resil- ience in rural and urban spaces to address the drivers and impacts of migra- tion and provide durable solutions. In the fast-track phase, the team will focus on two regions with urgent needs—the Lake Chad Basin and the Horn of Africa—to enhance developing and ongoing operations, undertake strategic analytical pieces to build an evidence base, inform further project design, and pilot innovative approaches that can be scaled up in the longer term. Strategies and operations developed will be scaled out to other subre- gions, such as the Great Lakes Region, as demand grows and resources are mobilized. The AFR GSURR team will pilot innovations to enhance ongoing opera- tions and provide proof of concept of approaches to be scaled up in the longer term. Six pilot projects are planned: 1. Building resilient communities in the Lake Chad Basin. In partnership with AFD, and based on ongoing analytical work, the Bank will pilot a project covering communities in Chad, Cameroon, Nigeria, and Niger that will aim to strengthen the environmental and social resilience of communi- ties around the lake to mitigate the drivers and impacts of migration. The project will pay particular attention to boosting the productivity of these communities in a socially inclusive manner. Strategies of spatial integra- tion and development will be tested to enhance the economic resilience of the region through sustainable practices. 2. Understanding the effect of behavioral change on water use in urban areas. This pilot will use innovative behavioral approaches to improve the use and management of water resources in urban areas that depend on the Lake Chad tributaries in order to mitigate adverse impacts on the hydrol- ogy of the lake. 3. Building a community-driven early warning system in Ibadan. This pilot will support a community-led subcomponent within the Ibadan Urban Flood Management Project to engage at-risk communities in mapping and understanding flood risk and developing an early warning system for flood events. 4. Promoting community-driven environmental management in Mbale. This activity will support community-led land management and agricultural practices to mitigate landslides along the slopes of Mt. Elgon, in Mbale, in eastern Uganda. During discussion of the scope of the regional displace- ment operation, the Ministry of Finance was keen on the Bank looking at displacement as a result of landslides in the area, where there have been reports of deaths, property destruction, and relocations over the past three years. 5. Promoting participatory scenario development for policy making. Effective policy interventions to support adaptation must incorporate 94 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development diversity in their design—diversity of socioeconomic and climatic con- texts, variations in institutional arrangements, and differences in the locally available resources that structure current adaptation practices. This activity will build on existing methodologies to inform climate adaptation policies. 6. Building community-driven resilience and adaptive social ­ protection. The Ethiopia Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) is widely seen as demonstrating the potential of a social protection program to build individual, household, and community-level resilience in the face of climate change-related stresses (see box 9.1). The Niger Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) also models elements of an adaptive social protection focus. The Zambia PPCR embod- ies a demand-driven approach to supporting community-based adaptation. Expansion of the PPCR to a second round of countries (Ethiopia, The Gambia, Madagascar, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda) provides opportunities to scale up adaptive social protection and community-based adaptation in ways that complement durable solu- tions to conflict- and climate-related mixed migration and forced displacement. The AFR GSURR team will work in partnership with the Social Protection and Labor Global Practice and the community- driven development community to ensure that the social dimensions of resilience are addressed and communities are empowered to better manage risk. It is expected that the pilots will be scaled up into additional operations. Two new operations are under development: •• The Regional IDA Operations on Development Response to Displacement and Borderlands and Lagging Regions in the Horn of Africa ($450 mil- lion planning and design phase) aims to improve access to social ser- vices, expand economic opportunities, and enhance environmental management for host and forcibly displaced households in targeted areas of Djibouti, Ethiopia and Uganda. It includes three investment components: social and economic infrastructure and services, sustain- able environmental management, and a livelihoods program. The oper- ation seeks to stabilize border areas in selected Horn of Africa countries through social and institutional development and the promotion of eco- nomic activities. •• The Resilience and Cohesion of Displaced Persons & Border Communities in the Great Lakes Region ($100 million) project aims to improve liveli- hoods and socioeconomic infrastructure for refugees, internally displaced persons, returnees, and host communities in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Tanzania, and Zambia. It will also strengthen the systems of par- ticipating government agencies to deliver development programs to these populations. There is a critical need to address data gaps and develop a better under- standing of the push and pull factors behind mixed migration, identify its Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 95 impacts, and craft durable solutions to inform investments. Some areas of focus include the following: 1. Linkages between hydrological changes, climate change, resource degradation, livelihoods, and migration in the Lake Chad Basin. This study will analyze water resources and ecosystem services in the Lake Chad Basin; the liveli- hoods depending on those resources; and the relationships between changes in resource availability, degradation of existing resources, livelihoods, and forced displacement and conflicts in the region. It will examine migration patterns from other rural areas into communities surrounding the lake and migration to urban areas in the vicinity of the lake. The analysis will identify specific areas of intervention that would enhance the resilience of commu- nities around the lake and mitigate drivers and impacts of migration. 2. Impact of urbanization and water management of the Lake Chad tribu- taries. This assessment will identify the linkages between rapid urbaniza- tion in western and central Africa and its implications for water resources management of the Lake Chad tributaries. It will examine the pressures that rural-urban migration places on food production and water access and identify critical entry points in the urbanization process to mitigate adverse impacts and ensure that the lake continues to be a sustainable source of livelihoods. 3. Resilient communities in the Lake Chad Basin. This study will focus on understanding the autonomous adaptation and risk management strat- egies that poor and marginalized groups have developed over centuries in response to climate variability and environmental change. It will also examine ways to address the increasing tensions between pastoralists and agriculturalists as a result of growing tensions related to water access. It will identify potential interventions to enhance community resilience to con- flict related to water management and agricultural activities in the basin. 4. Knowledge partnership on mixed migration innovation. This initiative will exploit the Bank Group’s convening power to leverage and build on cutting-edge work on mixed migration. Extensive work under the UK Foresight Project on Migration and Global Environmental Change is being followed up by a new project of the Royal Geographical Society on “trapped populations” in countries including Somaliland and Zimbabwe. The Centre de Recherches Internationales (CERI) of Sciences Po Paris is leading an extensive knowledge network that already works closely with the Nansen Initiative. The AFR GSURR team is linked in internationally with GSDRC’s Applied Knowledge Services and internally in with the Bank Group–facilitated Global Knowledge Partnership on Migration and Development (KNOMAD), a global hub of knowledge and policy expertise on migration and development issues. KNOMAD brings together a wide range of relevant institutions, academics, and practitioners. Other internal partners within the Bank include the Social Protection and Labor (SPL) Global Practice in Africa, the Global Program on Forced Displacement, GFDRR, and urban development specialists within GSURR. 96 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Expected Outcomes The expected outcome of these activities is to gain a better understanding of the drivers and impacts of mixed migration, in order to facilitate the develop- ment of government policies and investments support planned, facilitated migration as an effective adaptation strategy. Intermediate outcomes include the following: 1. Evidence base deepened and applied: Activities will facilitate the gen- eration, exchange, and application of knowledge among global and local partners related to critical topics, including the understanding of autonomous risk management strategies of poor communities, the relationships and linkages between different push and pull factors driv- ing migration, and good-practice examples of how to address adverse impacts while promoting planned, facilitated migration as an effective adaptation strategy. 2. Government policy/strategy informed: The creation of key knowledge products, operational innovations, and knowledge exchanges will inform government policies and strategies related to climate change adaptation and migration. 3. Client capacity increased: Provision of just-in-time technical assistance and capacity building will strengthen the design and implementation capacity for addressing mixed migration and strengthening resilience at the local level. 4. Innovative approaches and solutions generated: Support to knowledge creation and just-in-time technical assistance for addressing the drivers and impacts of migration will help develop new innovative approaches to migration. Climate-Related Benefits The proposed activities have the potential to directly increase social and eco- nomic resilience and promote adaptation at the household and community levels. They will do so by understanding and supporting autonomous adapta- tion and risk management strategies of affected groups, empowering affected groups to drive a risk management agenda in support of their development goals, and linking poor communities to necessary information and resources, such as social protection systems and alternative livelihood opportunities. Community-level work to increase resilience and diversify livelihood sources could also be designed to target water insecurity and soil erosion and pro- mote increased carbon capture. Financing Plan Table 10.2 describes the financing plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 97 Table 10.2  Support to Addressing Drivers of Migration: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 Domestic resources might be mobilized in later stages of implementation, as co-financing to other development organizations IDA 600 Subject to country prioritization from IDA17 or IDA18 allocations Private sector 0 The private sector is not expected to contribute, at least not during the fast-track phrase Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, and so 0 forth) Other development finance (bilaterals, 16 AFD, CIWA, GFDRR Inclusive Community multilaterals) Resilience program, KNOMAD To be determined 0 Total fast track (resources raised by 616 2020) Longer term (additional resources 970 raised by 2024) Key Partners Key partners include the ministries of finance and social welfare, AFD, the Climate Action Partnership, CERI (Sciences Po Paris), CIWA, the Feinstein International Center, GFDRR, GPFD, the IOM, the Institute of Research for Development, the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ICID), KNOMAD, the Lake Chad Basin Commission, the Royal Geographical Society, the Stockholm International Water Institute, UNEP, UNESCO, UNHCR, UNOCHA, and the United Kingdom and partners associated with the UK Government Office for Science Project on Migration and Global Environmental Change. 98 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development PART C POWERING RESILIENCE Some 600 million people and 10 million small and medium-size enterprises in Sub-Saharan Africa still do not have a connection to the electric grid. In many countries, power systems are small and poorly maintained by utilities that often operate at a deficit. As a result, many energy users on and off the grid rely on fossil energy sources for lightning or heating. These sources are more expensive and produce significantly fewer productivity gains for con- sumers than modern energy sources. In response, the Bank has committed to the objectives of the Sustainable Energy for All initiative by 2030. These objectives include providing universal access to modern energy services, doubling the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. Low-carbon energy sources offer mitigation benefits associated with increasing the share of renewable energy across the region while also provid- ing the power needed to tackle the access challenge and improve resilience. By investing both on and off the grid, crowding in private sector investment, and leveraging mainstream and emerging technologies in the renewable space, the World Bank can contribute to improving one of the key drivers of security, productivity, job creation, and poverty reduction. Such investments will require increased concessional financing for ancillary infrastructure (roads, water availability, deep grid investments, and so forth). On-grid generation investments, which center on solar photovoltaic (PV), hydropower, and geothermal, should be calibrated to optimize additional transmission and distribution needs as well as the regional interconnections that play an increasingly important role in overcoming the problems associ- ated with small domestic market size and improving reliability. Large-scale renewable generation investment could also include concentrated solar power (CSP) and wind as regional markets take off. Off-grid investments can lever- age small distributed generation systems, such as solar portable lanterns and solar home systems, as well as mini-grids that may blend fossil fuel with solar PV generation. Given the size of the investment required and the important role to be played by the private sector, leveraging the comparative advantages of the different parts of the World Bank Group—including IFC advisory and investment services and MIGA insurance to attract private sector participa- tion—will be critical. © Andrea Borgarello. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 11 Increasing the Use of Solar Power The World Bank will support the uptake of solar power through technical work, financing, policy dialogue and resource mobilization. These efforts will be grounded in the development of utility scale solar PV projects as well as the acceleration of modern energy service provision in off-grid areas through solar home systems and solar portable lanterns (table 11.1). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 101 Table 11.1  Support to Solar Power: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Engage in sector dialogue and policy Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) support, including of regulation, taxation, • 1 GW of grid-connected • 2 GW of grid-connected and subsidies solar PV available solar PV available • Provide technical assistance, including • 5 million off-grid consumers • 55 million off-grid consumers planning, resource mapping, transaction have access to modern have access to modern structuring, and grid integration energy services energy services • Provide guarantee packages and lending for public investment, public-private partnerships, and debt facilities Main partners Resource mobilization Governments, private sector developers, Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds climate finance partners, such as Climate by 2024) Investment Funds and Green Climate Fund $3,240 million $4,760 million Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Sub-Saharan Africa is home to some of the highest insolation rates in the world. Recent decreases in the cost of solar PV technology create an opportu- nity for countries to diversify their energy mixes without increasing carbon emissions. Countries are starting to recognize ways of leveraging this abun- dant resource. They are beginning to employ planning techniques to deter- mine where and when to deploy utility-scale solar PV plants, off-grid solar PV solutions, and solar or hybridized mini-grids. Despite its growing list of benefits, solar PV accounts for less than percent of the electricity generated across Sub-Saharan Africa, however. 0.5 ­ The vast majority of generation is concentrated in South Africa. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience As costs continue to fall, utility-scale solar systems are becoming an increas- ingly attractive technology as part of a least-cost energy mix. Many coun- tries in Africa rely on thermal generation using liquid fuels at a cost of $20–$30/kWh. Recent competitive tenders for solar PV have demonstrated increasing price competitiveness. In Uganda the GET FiT process reduced independent power producer (IPP) tariffs to $0.17/kWh in 2014; in South Africa tariffs under the Renewable Energy IPP Program fell to $0.065/kWh in 2015. Solar PV can also be deployed more quickly than other technologies and rolled out in a modular/distributed fashion. Despite these advantages, grid-scale solar PV remains unfamiliar to many utilities, and examples of competitive selection for solar IPPs are scarce. Africa has a notional pipeline of more than 5 GW of solar PV projects, but most projects are unsolicited, expensive, and unbankable. In response, the World Bank is rolling out Scaling Solar, an initiative to rapidly expand private 102 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development investment in utility-scale solar PV projects, by combining standardized bankable project documents, advisory services, stapled financing from IFC, and stapled credit enhancement from the World Bank and MIGA. Recent reductions in the price of solar system components and the intro- duction of pay-as-you-go business models have made solar lanterns and solar home systems more accessible, spurring market growth in excess of 100 ­percent a year. Modern solar PV solutions are vastly superior to traditional alterna- tives and have established themselves as a key transitional solution for rural households. An increasing but still small number of higher-density rural communities are benefiting from energy access from hybridized solar/diesel mini-grids. Mini-grids have typically been diesel powered, but the dramatic reduction in the cost of PV panels and new storage solutions have made retrofitted or newly built solar-powered mini-grids increasingly attractive. Although interest has ballooned in recent years, most client governments in the region still lack tangible plans for developing solar PV. Along with sub- sidy reform and other sectorwide interventions, a sharper focus on renewable energy policy is key to creating attractive investment opportunities. The pack- age proposed in this business plan combines sector dialogue, technical assis- tance, and financing as part of a widening effort to move from unsolicited bids to proactive planning and transparent, competitive tendering processes. Technical assistance and transaction advisory can help overcome the lack of familiarity and institutional capacity still common with solar PV. It  can help governments identify priority projects and address technical concerns about variability and dispatchability. Such support can be combined with transaction advisory services provided under the Scaling Solar initiative, a one-stop-shop developed by the World Bank Group to support rapid, trans- parent, and competitive tender processes. The approach integrates due dili- gence, standardized documentation, and stapled financing in way that is designed to maximize pool of qualified developers and minimize costs. Because of the high investment costs of solar PV in both grid-connected and off-grid segments, reducing the cost of capital and providing liquidity is key to driving down prices. International financing institutions can help by providing working capital facilities for importers/distributors of ­quality-verified pico-PV products and solar home systems; when relevant, grants or low-cost financ- ing to kick-start markets and reward first movers; and stapled financing and/or guarantees for public private partnerships for utility-scale solar PV plants, including guarantees to mitigate off-taker payment risk. Implementation of the proposed approach would involve the following activities: •• identifying priority countries based on upstream resource mapping and analysis of power supply and demand trends on a case-by-case basis (the focus is likely to be on high-insolation regions, such as the Sahel, and landlocked countries that rely heavily on thermal power generation) •• reviewing and optimizing legislative and regulatory frameworks to facili- tate the deployment of solar PV through both public and private entities Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 103 •• identifying priority on-grid projects, through technical studies on grid inte- gration and reinforcement, location analysis, and advanced control systems •• facilitating access to working capital for solar PV companies. Expected Outcomes Outcomes of the fast-track phase of the proposed package include the devel- opment of 1 GW of grid-connected solar energy projects and the provision of 5 million off-grid consumers with modern energy services by 2023. Over the longer term (by 2026), the plan would develop 5 GW of grid-connected solar energy projects and provide 55 million off-grid consumers with modern energy services. Climate-Related Benefits Solar energy has enormous potential to mitigate climate change, with mar- ginal abatement costs that can now reach zero (or, in some situations, create profits). It provides an opportunity to replace kerosene, diesel, and unsustain- able use of wood, with major health and environmental benefits. Financing Plan Investment required to achieve the plan’s overall targets is estimated at $8 ­billion, including $3.2 billion in the fast-track phase (table 11.2). To achieve the fast-track phase financing targets by 2020, resources (including partner funding and private sector investment) will need to be identified by 2017. Table 11.2  Support to Solar Power: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 50–90 IDA 500–1,000 IDA investment may include guarantee instruments, public solar PV investment, technical assistance, deep-grid investment, and other infrastructure, to be determined based on site selection. Guarantee packages reflect a one- quarter IDA exposure ratio. Private sector 1,770–2,270 Financing is likely to include IFC equity/debt investment. Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 200–400 and so forth) Other development finance 75–125 Bilateral financing may include capital investment or (bilaterals, multilaterals) associated deep-grid investment. To be determined 0 Total fast track (resources raised 3,240 Extrapolated from FY16–FY18 IDA pipeline. by 2020) Longer term (additional 4,760 Assumes substantial ramp-up to achieve 3 GW by 2026. resources raised by 2024) 104 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Key Partners The World Bank Group will deploy its comprehensive resources, including IDA/IBRD instruments, and leverage IFC advisory and investment and MIGA financing to support the objectives outlined above. It will collaborate with traditional and emerging partners, including governments, the private sector, and climate finance investors. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 105 © John Hogg. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 12 Increasing the Use of Hydropower The World Bank will continue to support the development of hydropower resources through technical work, financing, policy dialogue and resource mobilization. These efforts will be grounded in the development of large hydropower generation capacity as well as water regulation to ensure year- round production and create further downstream hydropower development opportunities (table 12.1). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 107 Table 12.1  Support to Hydropower: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Develop Lom Pangar (30 MW and regulating Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) dam), Nachtigal (420 MW), and Souapiti • 420 MW of reliable, clean, • 545 MW of reliable, clean, (515 MW and regulating dam), which are low-cost hydropower low-cost hydropower under preparation or implementation developed in West Africa developed in West Africa • Provide technical assistance and financing • Downstream river flows for feasibility studies on downstream regulated to increase projects all-year production and facilitate future projects Main partners Resource mobilization Governments, other development finance Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds institutions, and private sector by 2024) $1,208 million $792 million Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Hydropower is a clean, large-scale, and affordable source of renewable energy that has the potential to play a major role in addressing Africa’s power supply crisis. Hydropower currently provides 24 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s power needs, and there is potential to increase this share to 40 percent over the coming years. Some 50 GW of hydropower could be developed immediately, at costs of $0.01–0.08/kWh. This prices make hydropower the lowest-cost, largest-scale renewable energy resource currently available to the region—with potential for transformative, growth-inducing developmental impacts. Hydropower is a valuable complement to other forms of renewable energy, because it provides a base load and can store surplus generation during off-peak periods. It contributes to mitigating climate change mitigation (by ­ reducing carbon emissions compared to thermal generation) and adaptation (by providing storage capacity). Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Cameroon has the third-largest hydropower development potential in Sub- Saharan Africa, estimated at more than 12,000 MW, with the Sanaga River Basin providing nearly half the untapped potential. Total installed electricity generation capacity from all sources in Cameroon is currently only about 1,000 MW, however. Of the 6 GW hydropower potential in the Sanaga River Basin, 4.2 GW is suitable for large-scale development. The estimated hydropower potential of the Konkouré River Basin, in Guinea, is 2.4 GW—about 40 percent of the country’s 6 GW hydropower potential. Two main projects have been implemented: the Garafiri project (75 MW), commis- sioned in 1999, and the Kaleta project (240 MW), commissioned in  2015. 108 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Further development of the basin will require additional regulation of the river to reduce the seasonality of flows and increase all-season capacity downstream. An important step in developing Cameroon’s largely unexploited hydropower potential will be the commissioning of a regulating dam at the Lom Pangar site in 2017. This dam will increase the guaranteed all-season hydropower capacity on the Sanaga River by about 40 percent, immediately adding 120 MW at exist- ing downstream hydropower plants, which will also generate electricity in the dry season. The Lom Pangar dam will allow for further downstream develop- ment of large-scale hydropower plants by ensuring firm all-season water flows. Fast-track support would help construct the 420 MW Nachtigal hydro- power project, conduct feasibility and bankability studies, and bid out other hydropower sites in the Sanaga Basin. The Nachtigal project is being devel- oped by a consortium consisting of Electricité de France (EDF), IFC, the gov- ernment of Cameroon, and Rio Tinto Alcan, at an estimated cost of $1 billion. Nachtigal is expected to be commissioned in 2020. Support would also include technical assistance for the development of future selected hydro sites. The Souapiti Dam, on the Konkouré River, in northern Guinea, is of strate- gic importance, because it regulates the Konkouré Basin and because Souapiti is one of the best hydropower production sites in West Africa, with potential generation capacity of more than 500 MW. The program would focus on sup- porting the development of the Souapiti project, which is estimated to cost $1–$1.5 billion. The West African Power Pool (WAPP) Secretariat has com- missioned a study to update existing feasibility studies and conduct a finan- cial and economic assessment of the project to determine the optimum bankable option for development under a public-private partnership (PPP) structure. The study will include an assessment of domestic demand (includ- ing by the mining industry) as well as the potential for export, thanks to new regional interconnections (such as the Gambia River Development Organization and the Côte d’Ivoire-Liberia-​ Sierra Leone and Guinea Electricity Networks Interconnection Project [CLSG]) currently under implementation. Environmental and social studies are also ongoing. Next steps will include advisory services to support the structuring of a PPP and the selection of a private developer through competitive tendering. Expected Outcomes Outcomes for the proposed package by 2026 include the development of 1 GW of hydropower capacity and the downstream regulation of river flows in two of West Africa’s largest river basins for further development. Climate-Related Benefits Hydropower is a renewable, efficient, and reliable source of energy that does not directly emit greenhouse gases or other air pollutants and that can be scheduled to produce power as needed, depending on water availability. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 109 Table 12.2  Support to Hydropower: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 68 IDA 85 Includes investment and guarantee packages; guarantee packages reflect a one-quarter IDA exposure ratio. Private sector 605 Financing is likely to include IFC equity/debt investment. Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, and 0 so forth) Other development finance 450 Includes multilateral investors identified in current PPP (bilaterals, multilaterals) structures. To be determined 0 Total fast track (resources raised by 1,208 2020) Longer term (additional resources 792 Assumes development of the Nachtigal and Souapiti raised by 2024) hydropower projects. Although it does cause indirect greenhouse gas emissions, mainly during the construction and flooding of the reservoirs, the greenhouse gas emissions factor (4–18 grams of CO2e per kilowatt-hour) is 36–167 times lower than factor for electricity generation from fossil fuels. Financing Plan Total financing for the development of 1,000 MW of hydropower is expected to reach $2 billion (table 12.2), including $1.2 billion for the fast-track phase. Key Partners Implementation for the initiatives will be carried out in close collaboration with the governments of Cameroon and Guinea, as well as with the entities to which power is eventually sold. 110 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Community Development Carbon Fund. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 13 Increasing the Use of Geothermal Power The World Bank will support the uptake of geothermal power through tech- nical work, financing, policy dialogue and resource mobilization. These efforts will be grounded in the upstream development of targeted geothermal sites to attract private sector capital for downstream development and open up the sector across the East Africa subregion (table 13.1). Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 111 Table 13.1  Support to Geothermal Energy: At-a-glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Develop Aluto geothermal site (70 MW) Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) underway; other sites under exploration • 150 MW of geothermal • 350 MW of geothermal • Provide technical assistance for sector generation capacity generation capacity development developed developed • Provide lending for public investment in • Downstream private sector • Geothermal sector exploration and development, public- investment leveraged established across the East private partnerships for downstream through concessional African Community development financing for exploration • Downstream private sector investment leveraged through concessional financing for exploration Main partners Resource mobilization Governments, multilateral and bilateral Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds development partners, private sector by 2024) $950 million $1,850 million Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Africa has significant potential for geothermal development; East Africa alone can potentially harness 14,000 MW of geothermal energy, but only 1.5 percent (209 MW) has been developed. Ethiopia and are already operat- ing geothermal plants, and other countries are considering geothermal sites for development. The high risk of exploratory drilling is a major obstacle to the scale-up of geothermal energy; considerable upstream public investment is required before downstream development by the private sector. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The World Bank Group has played a central role in reducing the risk and sup- porting the development of geothermal globally. It provided $2.2 billion for geothermal development between 1977 and 2015, by far the largest amount of any multilateral development bank. It has provided concessional loans and guarantees in support of geothermal exploration drilling in Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. MIGA issued an $88.3 million guarantee to Ormat Holding Corp. to cover a $98.1 million equity investment in OrPower 4 in Kenya. The Bank Group’s program for geothermal development generally includes the following support: •• Policy support. The Bank provides technical assistance to help client governments craft appropriate regulatory and institutional frameworks ­ and price electricity. •• Surface exploration. The Bank can support surface exploration to identify the potential for drilling. 112 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• Mitigation of drilling risk. Through concessional finance and guarantees, the Bank Group mitigates the high risk of drilling for resource (steam) identification. •• Engagement of commercial investment. IFC and MIGA work directly with the private sector to support private sector investment. The Bank Group launched the Global Geothermal Development Plan (GGDP) in 2013 to bring together donors and multilateral lenders to coordinate financing for specific geothermal projects. Expected Outcomes Outcomes for the proposed package include the development of 500 MW of geothermal capacity and the opening up of the geothermal sector across the East Africa Community for further investment by 2026. Climate-Related Benefits Geothermal power generation does not involve fossil combustion and emits only minimal amounts of greenhouse gas. Abatement of greenhouse gas depends on the current and projected power mix in a country: The climate benefit is maximized when geothermal energy displaces inefficient (and often expensive) fossil fuel–based thermal generation (making geothermal develop- ment particularly desirable in land-locked and resource-constrained countries). In addition to leaving a minimal environmental footprint, ­ ­geothermal power generation is highly resilient to the effects of climate change. Financing Plan Investment required to achieve the targeted 500 MW of geothermal capacity development is estimated at $2.8 billion (table 13.2). The Bank can provide diverse and unique financial solutions, including long-term concessional financing for exploration and upstream studies, guarantee packages to miti- gate investor risk, Scaling up Renewable Energy in Low Income Countries Program (SREP) funding for pilot renewable energy projects, and technical assistance. The World Bank Group can also leverage IFC competitive financ- ing products, which can crowd in private sector investment. Key Partners Implementation of the initiative will be carried out in close collaboration with the governments of Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, as well as the private sector for downstream development. Support will also be sought from partners in the Global Geothermal Development Plan. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 113 Table 13.2  Support to Geothermal Energy: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 50–100 IDA 400–600 Includes investment and guarantee packages; guarantee packages reflect a one-quarter IDA exposure ratio. Private sector 175–275 Financing likely to include IFC equity/debt investment. Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 0 and so forth) Other development finance 10–200 May also be obtained under climate financing. (bilaterals, multilaterals) To be determined 0 Total fast track (resources 950 raised by 2020) Longer term (additional 1,850 Scale-up to 500 MW assumes step-change in client uptake. resources raised by 2024) 114 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development PART D Enabling Resilience To enable countries to increase their resilience to the effects of climate change,  the Africa Climate Business Plan proposes strengthening Africa’s hydro-meteorological programs and establishing an Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility. These two initiatives will strengthen the data and knowledge base for integrating climate variability and change in a variety of ­ decision-making processes at the local, national, and regional scales. © Warrenski, Flickr. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 14 Strengthening Africa’s Hydro-Meteorological Program This World Bank will support the enhancement of climate- and disaster-­ resilience capacity in targeted Sub-Saharan countries, by strengthening their hydro-meteorological (hydro-met), end-user (including early warning), and knowledge and advisory services and link national systems with regional and global counterparts. The program aims to strengthen national meteorological and hydrological services (NHMS) by providing the investment, technical assistance, and capacity building needed for integrated modernization (table 14.1). It is designed as a framework program to modernize NMHS and their regional affiliates. The program will reduce community vulnerability by focusing on Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 117 Table 14.1  Support to the Hydro-Met Program: At-a-Glance summary Activity Expected outcomes • Strengthen national meteorological Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) and hydrological services (NMHS), • Modernization programs will be • Timely and reliable forecasts by improving their ability to deliver effective in 15 countries and 4 will be made at the local, services, building their capacity, regional centers regional, and national levels and supporting policy-institutional • Technical assistance and • Weather, climate, and reforms modernization activities will hydrological services will be • Modernize regional NMHS centers, commence for NMHS in improved including by fostering cooperation 10 countries and 2 regional • International and cross- with national institutions centers border collaboration, • Integrate national, regional, and • First benefits from impact-based including on early warnings, global systems and knowledge and forecasts will be realized in will be improved advisory services Mozambique • Up to 10 NMHS will have improved access to global products and services Main partners Resource mobilization National governments, the African Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds by Union Commission, regional economic 2024) communities, hydro-met agencies, $270 million $280 million and bilateral and multilateral partners, including development banks the transformation of “last-mile” community early warning systems, helping ensure that these systems have the absorptive capacity, communication means, and dissemination outreach to efficiently relay systematic and reliable information to end-users. Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Floods and droughts cause heavy losses of livelihood and life in Africa. In 2012, for example, Madagascar and Nigeria each are estimated to have lost more than 1 percent of GDP from flooding and cyclones, with losses totaling $8 billion. Africa is set to experience more frequent adverse weather events, including droughts, floods, and heat waves. Accurate hydro-met data, fore- casts, and early warnings are key to informed and timely decisions that reduce loss of life and assets and protect development gains. Improved hydro-met services can help build resilience in Africa’s urban agglomerations. If development gains are not protected against climate risks, a vicious cycle of urban poverty, inequality, and fragility could be triggered, retarding growth and development. Improving hydro-met services is integral to sustainable growth in Sub- Saharan Africa. The services provided by NMHS are a “public good,” because of their cross-cutting, diffuse, and non-rival benefits. The cost-benefit ratio of investing in hydro-met services is between 1: 3 and 1: 15, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Only 10 NMHS in Africa provide adequate forecast and warning services. According to a 2014 WMO survey, 54 percent of surface stations and percent of upper air weather stations in Africa do not report data. 71  ­ 118 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development NMHS report to different ministries in different countries, and there is no universal protocol for data and information sharing. Lack of investment in human capital has reduced capacity. The challenge is to invest in new systems, train people to operate them, sustain operations and maintenance regimes, and generate information that meets end-users’ needs. Funding is insufficient and fragmented—and too little of it goes to the sys- tem architecture and sustainability aspects of NMHS; meeting operations and maintenance costs remains a challenge (World Bank 2013). A comprehensive approach to strengthening hydro-met with equal emphasis on infrastructure, capacity, and policy is wanting. Coordination, sustainability, and last-mile connectivity are major challenges. The financing and scope of modernization must be substantial and adopt a systems approach in order to be transforma- tive. Last-mile service, which should include impact-based forecast and warning services, is key for realizing climate resilience benefits for both citi- zens and core government ministries (WMO 2015). Governments need new capabilities in operations and maintenance, technology, human resources, and policy, which will require larger operating budgets. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience Several development partners are providing technical assistance to hydro-met services. National meteorological services from many countries have been providing support to African counterparts, often coupled with bilateral aid. ClimDev-Africa—a joint initiative of the African Development Bank, the African Union Commission, and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA)—was set up in 2009 to improve weather and climate ser- vices in Africa. It aims to fill information gaps and improve the analytical base for informing weather and climate policies, build observational infrastructure across Africa, support climate resilience and low-carbon development, and understand the economic impacts of climate change. Its main focus is on regional organizations; national-level investments are small (usually less than $2 million). The World Bank has supported strengthening NMHS in Africa through programs on agriculture, water resources management, and early warning systems. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) is an opportunity to scale up systematic investments in three countries (Mozambique, Niger, and Zambia). Large-scale watershed management and basin-wide pro- grams in Malawi and Nigeria provide opportunities for systemwide support. The Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology for 2013–2017—­developed by the African Union Conference of Ministers Responsible for Meteorology (AMCOMET), in collaboration with the WMO, the African Union Commission, member states, and others—highlights the challenges posed by weather-related hazards to economic development. The strategy calls for regional cooperation and the upgrading of observation networks; increases in the capacity to receive, share, and transmit observed data; more timely and accurate weather and climate forecasts and warning services; and improved Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 119 decision support tools. It does not quantify the investment needs for the mod- ernization of hydro-met services at the national and regional levels. Investment needs for systemwide modernization of hydro-met services in Africa are substantial: A conservative estimate of high priority investments in all developing countries is $1.5–$2 billion (World Bank 2013b), with more than half of investment needs in Africa. A 2012 regional assessment by the Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) calls for investing $120  million in SADC countries. Its estimate of needs, particularly for capacity building, training, and implementation support, are conservative. In June 2015, the World Bank, the WMO, and the African Development Bank launched the Africa Hydro-Met Program: Strengthening Climate and Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa, which aims to strengthen 15 NHMS and 4 regional centers in its initial phase, at a cost of $600 million. The program is designed as an inclusive framework program to modernize NMHS and their regional affiliates. It offers a collaborative platform for development partners to collaborate and scale up their support while keeping African gov- ernments in the lead. Its objective is to strengthen the ability of NMHS in Africa to provide timely, accurate, and actionable weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts and warnings and to contribute to climate resilience, economic development, and disaster risk management. The program seeks to leverage partnerships and foster interagency coordination. It is aligned with the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) and the Integrated African Strategy on Meteorology. It champions better hydro-met services as a public good and calls for scaling up investment financing from development partners and operational financing from host governments. The program includes three main components: •• strengthening NMHS, including by improving their ability to deliver service, building their capacity, and promoting policy and institutional ­ reforms •• modernizing regional centers, including by fostering cooperation with national institutions •• integrating national, regional, and global systems and knowledge and advisory services. Expected Outcomes Expected outcomes include the following: •• timely and reliable forecasts at the local, regional, and national levels •• improved delivery of weather, climate, and hydrological services •• better international collaboration, including on early warnings. By the COP21 meeting, impact-based forecasting will have been introduced in Mozambique; the modernization program for the Ethiopian National Meteorological agency and the Hydrology and Water Quality Directorate will have been prepared; and ongoing works in Kenya, Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia under the PPCR will be proceeding. 120 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Within two to three years after COP21, technical assistance and moderni- zation activities will commence for NMHS in 10 countries and 2 regional centers; first benefits from impact-based forecasts will be realized in Mozambique; and up to 10 NMHS will have improved access to global prod- ucts and services, subject to resource availability. Within two to four years after COP21, modernization programs will be in effect in 15 countries and 4 regional centers, with anticipated completion by 2023, subject to resource availability. Climate-Related Benefits Key sectors—including agriculture, energy, water, health, and transport— directly benefit from hydro-met services. Agriculture, which is largely rainfed in Africa, accounts for 60 percent of employment and 40 percent of exports. The Comprehensive African Agricultural Development Program (CAADP), first endorsed by African governments in 2003, stresses improved water man- agement and climate-smart agriculture, both of which depend on good and timely hydro-met information. Energy is key to poverty reduction and eco- nomic development. Hydro-power, a substantial current source of energy in  Sub-Saharan Africa today, also depends on hydro-met data for optimal performance. A 2010 World Bank study highlights the economic costs of lack of electric- ity and argues for a renewed emphasis on hydroelectricity. Efficient water resources management would bring multiple benefits, ranging from irrigated agriculture, hydroelectricity, water supply, watershed management, to erosion control, and so forth. Transport and connectivity boost growth. Only a third of Africa’s rural inhabitants live within 2 kilometers of all-weather roads. Africa has 60 percent of the world’s malaria cases and 80 percent of its deaths. Effective hydro-met services and data support effective planning of targeted interventions aimed at improvements in all these sectors. The proposed activities would yield direct benefits for the citizens of all participating countries by improving their climate resilience. In addition to  providing weather, climate, and hydrological forecasts and warnings, NMHS are also expected to inform climate adaptation and mitigation activities. Phase I of the hydro-met program would benefit more than 100 million people in 15 Sub-Saharan African countries and 4 regional organizations by building the technical, human, and financial capacity for providing forecasts and warnings, in order to enhance resilience to climate and disaster risks and augment the capacity to adapt to climate variability and change. Major cli- mate resilience benefits would include the reduction of climate and disaster risks and impacts; improved disaster preparedness; enhanced resilience of social and productive infrastructure, resulting in improved public health, food security, nutrition, water management, energy security, transport and communications, trade and competitiveness, employment generation, gover- nance, and state-building. Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 121 Table 14.2  Support to the Hydro-Met Program: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 Operations and maintenance costs to be internalized by governments not calculated IDA 108 Subject to country prioritization from IDA 17 or IDA 18 allocations Private sector 0 Revenue stream from sale of hydro-met products in long term not calculated Climate finance (GCF, GEF, 135 Preference is for grant financing from GCF (initiative provides a CIF, and so forth) public good) Other development finance 27 Grant support envisaged for technical assistance and capacity- (bilaterals, multilaterals) building components To be determined 0 Total fast track (resources 270 raised by 2020) Longer term (additional 280 resources raised by 2024) Financing Plan Table 14.2 describes the financing plan. Key Partners The main partners will be national governments and regional organizations in Sub-Saharan Africa, including the African Union Commission and the regional economic communities. The World Bank, the WMO, and the African Development Bank will proactively seek the strategic partnership of interna- tional, regional, and bilateral development partners and technical institu- tions, including hydro-met agencies. They will also reach out to civil society, the private sector, and academia, in Sub-Saharan Africa and globally, to build a world-class network of knowledge, solutions, and resources. Financing partnerships for the program will leverage resources from the World Bank and the African Development Bank (including the ClimDev ini- tiative), soft financing from multilateral and bilateral development partners, and climate financing funds. The possibility of establishing a new multidonor trust fund will be explored in order to maximize the synergy and collabora- tion of all partners. 122 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development © Arne Hoel. Used with permission. Further permission required for reuse. Chapter 15 Establishing an Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility Project planning and design for climate-resilient investment is likely to be most effective if conducted in Africa, by Africans, from within established institutions on the continent. For this reason, the World Bank, in collabora- tion with the African Union Commission, the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA), and other partners in Africa, proposes establishing an Africa Climate-Resilient Development Facility. The facility would increase the capacity of African policy makers to integrate climate Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 123 Table 15.1  Support to the Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility: At-a-Glance Summary Activity Expected outcomes • Create an open data and Fast track (by 2023) Longer term (by 2026) knowledge platform • Open data and knowledge • Second set of 5–10 guidelines • Develop guidelines for climate- platform covering climate issued for climate-resilient resilient investment planning projections, biophysical investment at the policy, • Compile good practices in the models, and economic models sector, and project levels operation of climate vulnerable accessible on-line • Second set of 5–10 good infrastructure • First set of 5–10 guidelines practices in management • Plan and implement awareness- issued for climate-resilient of climate-vulnerable raising activities investment at the policy, sector, infrastructures compiled • Provide on-demand advisory and project levels • On-demand advisory services services to project developers • First set of 5–10 good practices provided to developers of an in management of climate- additional 30–50 projects vulnerable infrastructure • Up to 20 training workshops compiled held • On-demand advisory services provided to developers of 20–30 projects • Up to 10 training workshops held Main partners Resource mobilization UNECA; AUC; river basin Fast track (by 2020) Longer term (additional funds organizations; power pools; regional by 2024) economic communities; regional $50 million $100 million climate centers; technical centers of excellence in Africa on climate modeling, infrastructure planning, and related issues; donors (AFD, DFID, EU, GIZ, NDF) change considerations into the planning, design, and operation of investment in relevant sectors (table 15.1). Sectoral Background and Development Challenges Proper integration of climate change in the planning and design of infrastruc- ture investments can significantly reduce the risk posed by climate to the physical and economic performance of hydropower and irrigation invest- ments, according to Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure (ECRAI), conducted by the World Bank in collaboration with UNECA (Cervigni and others 2015). The study emphasizes the importance of identi- fying adaptation solutions that balance the risk of inaction (ignoring climate change) against the risk of wrong action (that is, ignoring the uncertainty surrounding future climate outcomes and committing to a single climate scenario). Integration of climate risks in the planning of climate-sensitive invest- ments requires a change in mindset toward an integrated framework approach that brings together climate information, climate impact assess- ment, and decision making for investment. Such a paradigm shift requires credible climate information used with appropriate modeling tools, 124 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development supported by dedicated institutions to better inform policy and develop- ment planning. Initiatives to Address the Challenges and Enhance Resilience The Africa Climate-Resilient Development Facility is intended to facilitate this paradigm shift. It would take the results and methods developed in Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure forward and enable their application to scale in Africa. The objective of the initiative would be to strengthen the capacity of African institutions (including national govern- ments, river basin organizations, regional economic communities, and power pools) to plan, design, and implement investments in selected sectors, in order to increase their resilience to climate change. An Africa-based center of technical competence and excellence would help governments, planners, and developers in Africa integrate climate change in project planning and design. It would attract climate finance from the Green Climate Fund and other sources. To quickly gain high-level political acceptance, the core of the facility would be anchored at the Africa Climate Policy Center in Addis Ababa, which operates under the umbrella of the ClimDev-Africa program. Certain activities would be undertaken in collaboration with, or outsourced to, a small number of regional centers of excellence in western, eastern, central, and southern Africa. The facility would operate through a small number of full-time experts and a roster of external consultants to be mobilized on a task-specific basis. The facility would be set up over a period of about 9–12 months. During this phase, a detailed business plan would be crafted, a core team recruited, a roster of external experts created, and the partner regional centers of excel- lence selected. Initial reach-out, liaison, and coordination with key organiza- tions in climate change resilience in Africa would also take place. Once operational, the facility would carry out its activities in a sequenced way, including a pilot stage of 18 months and a consolidation stage of 24  months and beyond. Activities to be carried out would include the following: •• Creation of an open data and knowledge platform of key data and refer- ence material that project developers need in order to incorporate climate risk into project design and execution of corresponding data clearing- house functions. •• Development of guidelines at the policy, sector, and project levels inte- grating climate risks in key climate sensitive sectors (water, energy, transport). These guidelines would take into account the challenges spe- ­ cific to Africa in terms of climate data and climate change projections for the continent. •• Provision of on-demand advisory services to project developers, includ- ing on preparation of terms of references for prefeasibility and feasibility Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 125 studies and review and quality assurance of technical reports from consultants. •• Preparation of reports on innovative options to support adaptation to cli- mate change in project planning or design. Examples of this incubator function include (a) assessment of the use of insurance instruments as an additional modality to mitigate the risk that climate-sensitive infrastruc- ture may not always be able to generate intended benefits (in the hydro- power and irrigation subsectors, for instance) and (b) exploration of the role of adaptive management in the design of infrastructure projects, whereby instead of committing upfront to a single design option, project developers could choose to adapt the design over time in response to new information on the significance of climate risks. •• Organization of awareness and training courses in targeted countries in Africa on methods for climate resilient investment planning and design (including those tested in the ECRAI analysis). The focus would be on how to integrate climate risk analysis in the project cycle of long-lived investments (in energy and transportation, for example). In energy, the process would involve starting from the upstream stages of planning at the river basin and power-pool levels and drawing on prefeasibility stud- ies of individual investments. Training would reach different levels of ­policy makers and practitioners, from regional economic communities to country ministries and river basin organizations. •• Convening of seminars and conferences to share and disseminate knowledge. During the start-up/design phase, the possibility will be explored of combin- ing the technical/advisory services on climate-smart investment planning and design with financial assistance to cover the additional costs the project designer may incur to include climate vulnerability and climate resilience assessments in feasibility studies and other preparation activities. The pro- posed facility would focus on technical services but might facilitate access to  financing through other channels (such as the World Bank Global Infrastructure Facility [GIF]). Expected Outcomes Results indicators include the following: •• technical guidelines for investment planning and design under climate uncertainty developed, reviewed by peer reviewers and stakeholders, and adopted by project developers •• open data and knowledge platform for use in climate-resilient project design made available on-line and hosted and maintained by African organizations •• capacity of project developers in the use of methodologies for managing climate risks in the planning and design of projects in selected sectors strengthened 126 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development •• advisory services delivered to project developers at selected junctures of project design (for example, prefeasibility and feasibility studies). These outputs would strengthen the capacity of African organizations to plan and design investment projects in a climate-resilient way. Climate-Related Benefits To exemplify the kind of climate-related benefits, it is useful to refer to the ECRAI study. It finds that under drying climate scenarios, failure to integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure could entail losses of hydropower revenues of 5–60 percent (depending on the basin). It also finds that consumer expenditure for energy could increase by up to three times the baseline values. Under wet climate scenarios, busi- ness-as-usual infrastructure development could lead to forgone revenues of 15–130 percent of the baseline (assuming that greater precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower). By strengthening the capacity of African institutions to integrate climate  change in project planning and design, the proposed initiative ­ would reduce the risk of suboptimal performance of long-lived investments. Doing so would increase the resilience not only of the proj- ­ ects analyzed but also of the communities and countries that depend on the  services delivered by those projects for their social and economic development. Financing Plan Table 15.2 describes the financing plan. Table 15.2  Support to the Africa Climate-Resilient Investment Facility: Resource Mobilization Plan Amount Source Notes ($ million) Domestic sources 0 IDA 0 Private sector 0 Climate finance (GCF, GEF, CIF, 0 and so forth) Other development finance 6 Figure includes trust funds already mobilized and additional (bilaterals, multilaterals) support pledged in principle by the NDF To be determined 44 Discussions with AFD, DFID, EU, and GIZ are ongoing; the possibility of mobilizing resources through the GIF is also being discussed Total fast track (resources raised 50 by 2020) Longer term (additional resources 100 raised by 2024) Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 127 Key Partners The Africa Union Commission (through the Commissioner for Infrastructure and Energy) and UNECA asked the World Bank to team with them to estab- lish the facility. It is envisaged that the partnership will be broadened to include other organizations, including regional economic communities, river basin organizations, power pools, and regional climate centers. Within the financing community, the NDF has expressed interest in supporting the initiative; discussions are underway with AFD, DFID, the European Union, and GIZ. 128 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development PART E Making It Happen The Africa Climate Business Plan envisages mobilizing and deploying some $16 billion of fast-track financing and $21 billion in longer-term support. This part of the business plan outlines the financing plan, presents the results framework, and describes the organizational arrangements that would allow the World Bank and its many partners to implement the plan. Chapter 16 Financing Plan The financing plan estimates the resources required to implement the Africa Climate Business Plan (in both the fast-track and longer-term phases, table 16.1) and identifies possible sources of funding for the fast-track phase (table 16.2). The activities included in the plan are “in the pipeline”: they have not yet been approved by the governing bodies of the financiers (although in several cases project preparation is nearing completion). The following caveats and clarifications are in order with respect to possible financing sources: •• International Development Association (IDA): IDA is the part of the World Bank Group that helps the world’s poorest countries by providing highly concessional loans (called “credits”) and grants for programs that boost economic growth, reduce inequalities, and improve people’s living conditions. IDA resources included in this business plan represent Table 16.1  Funding Required to Implement the Africa Climate Business Plan ($ million) Component Fast track Longer term I. Strengthening Resilience 10,363 13,490 A. Natural Capital Climate-smart agriculture 3,000 2,000 Climate-resilient landscapes 1,605 1,605 Integrated watershed management 2,967 6,100 (Niger, Chad, Zambezi, Lake Victoria) Climate-smart Africa Ocean Economies 220 280 B. Physical Capital Climate smart cities 1,025 1,025 Building coastal resilience (West Africa) 450 550 C. Human and Social Capital Social Protection 480 960 Addressing migration drivers 616 970 II. Powering Resilience 5,398 7,402 Solar 3,240 4,760 Hydropower 1,208 792 Geothermal 950 1,850 III. Enabling Resilience 320 380 Africa hydro-met program 270 280 Africa Climate Resilient Investment facility 50 100 Grand Total 16,081 21,272 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 131 Table 16.2  Financing Sources for the Fast-track Phase of the Africa Climate Business Plan, 2016–20 132 ($ million) Climate finance Other development Private Domestic To be Component IDA (GCF, GEF, CIF, and finance Total sector sources ­determined other sources) (bilateral, multilaterals) I. Strengthening Resilience 4,240 1,792 1,246 665 490 1,930 10,363 Natural Capital Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Climate-smart agriculture 1,300 100 320 240 240 800 3,000 Climate-resilient landscapes 355 830 0 0 0 420 1,605 Integrated watershed management 890 692 670 425 150 140 2,967 (Niger, Chad, Zambezi, Lake Victoria) Climate-smart ocean economies 30 35 20 0 20 115 220 Physical Capital Climate-smart cities 550 0 0 0 20 455 1,025 Coastal resilience (West Africa) 150 90 150 0 60 0 450 Human and social capital Social protection 365 45 70 0 0 0 480 Migration drivers 600 0 16 0 0 0 616 II. Powering Resilience 1,335 300 700 2,850 213 0 5,398 Solar 750 300 100 2,020 70 3,240 Hydropower 85 0 450 605 68 0 1,208 Geothermal 500 0 150 225 75 0 950 III. Enabling Resilience 108 135 33 0 0 44 320 Africa hydro-met program 108 135 27 0 0 0 270 Africa Climate Resilient Investment facility 0 0 6 0 0 44 50 Total 5,683 2,227 1,979 3,515 703 1,974 16,081 ­ stimates by Bank staff (based on historical trends, project pipelines, e and ongoing dialogue with governments in client countries) of IDA funding needs that could contribute to the plan’s financing. In several cases these resources could be part of larger envelopes of IDA financing (envelopes that include the financing of other development activities related to those included in the plan but of which only the part included in the plan will generate co-benefits in terms of climate adaptation or low-carbon development). Resource mobilization for the fast-track part of the plan spans two IDA cycles: IDA17 (which ends June 30, 2017) and IDA18 (which will run from July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2020). Activities that would start in the earlier years of the plan would be considered for financing under IDA17; ­ estimates of financing in the outer years of the plan refer to activities to be considered for support by IDA18 and are more tentative. The plan is fully consistent with the recently announced World Bank Group goal to increase the share of financing with climate co-benefits by one-third by 2020. That increase will be achieved through better integration of climate considerations into project planning and design. The additional technical work during project preparation needed to achieve such integration could be co-financed by dedicated resources mobilized by donors and partners. •• Climate finance: Funding estimates under this rubric comprise various instruments, including the Climate Investment Funds (in particular the Forest Investment Program [FIP]), the Global Environment Facility (GEF), the Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (including both the readi- ness and the carbon finance mechanisms), the Green Climate Fund (GCF), and other initiatives, such as the Central African Forest Initiative (CAFI). Estimates are based on consultations with staff of each financing institution (on eligibility, strategic fit, and so forth). Some GCF projects (such as the hydro-met project) have already been submitted to the GCF Secretariat; others are in preparation. •• Other development finance (bilateral and multilateral institutions): Figures included in this category are based on technical consultations with the staffs of a variety of financing partners of the World Bank, including the AfDB, the West African Development Bank (BOAD), and ­ bilateral part- ners (including AFD, DFID, GIZ, and NDF). These consultations range from preliminary to advanced, but in general there is a r ­ easonable expec- tation that a substantial portion of the funding identified will materialize. •• Private sector: Estimates of private sector financing reflect the potential of projects to generate streams of revenues adequate to remunerate ­ private  investors. Private sector participation is expected mainly in the energy sector and to some extent in agriculture. •• Domestic sources: Estimates of domestic financing are based on the record of government counterpart financing across World Bank projects. •• To be determined: “To be determined” is an estimate of the residual gap that needs to be filled in order to fully finance the projects included in Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 133 the plan. It is expected that this document will serve as a platform to help close this gap, by mobilizing additional interest and support from  both existing and new partners with an interest in promoting ­climate-resilient, low-carbon development in Africa (such as China and the Arab funds). 134 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Chapter 17 Results Framework The Africa Climate Business Plan is expected to mobilize resources and increase resilience to climate variability and change (table 17.1). The plan’s contribution to resource mobilization will be measured by two indicators. The first is the share of resources mobilized at various stages of implementa- tion. The targets are for 25 percent of funding to be mobilized by June 2017 (end of IDA17), 50 percent by December 2018 (mid-term of IDA18), and 75 percent by June 2020 (end of IDA18). The plan is also expected to have catalytic/leveraging effect on climate finance for Africa beyond the activities included in the plan, which do not exhaust the universe of development activities with climate co-benefits. The plan could help promote the uptake of initiatives beyond the sectors or geographical areas included in the plan, through positive spillover or imita- tion effects. A second indicator of resource mobilization is therefore the share of IDA commitments to Sub-Saharan Africa with climate co-benefits, an indicator the World Bank has been monitoring since 2011. The target is to increase this share from a baseline of 17 percent (the average across all sec- tors for FY11–FY15) to 22 percent over the period FY16–FY20. The increase would help the World Bank Group meet its recent commitment to increase climate finance. Table 17.1  Results Framework for the Africa Climate Business Plan (percent) Target By By June By June Overall By June ­December 2017 2020 FY16–FY20 2023 Outcome area Indicator Baseline 2018 Resource Share of business 0 25 50 75 n.a. n.a. mobilization plan financing envelope mobilized Share of 17 No No target No target 22 n.a. cumulative IDA target commitments to Sub-Saharan Africa with climate co-benefits Promoting Share of total 0 No No target No target No target 75 resilience number of target (delivery of component-level results planned indicators for for components which targets of the business have been plan) achieved Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 135 The second area of the results framework is the increase in Africa’s resil- ience to climate variability and change. A wide range of outcome indicators has been proposed for each of the plan’s components. The proposed aggre- gate target is for at least 75 percent of these indicators to be met by June 2023 (the end of IDA19). The lower-than-100 percent target reflects the fact that the goals of the Africa Climate Business Plan are ambitious. 136 Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development Chapter 18 Organizational Arrangements Two levels of organizational arrangements are proposed for rolling out the plan. At the external level, to ensure an adequate framework for successful implementation of the plan, the Bank will continue to systematically inte- grate climate change considerations into country and sector dialogue, in accordance with commitments made as part of the IDA17 replenishment. This effort includes addressing climate change in Systematic Country Diagnostics (SCDs) and integrating climate considerations in Country Partnership Framework (CPFs) the main components in the Bank’s new approach to country engagement (box 18.1). These processes will also help identify the instruments that could best achieve the results envisaged by the plan (policy lending, investment lending, technical assistance, programs for results, guarantees, and so forth). To nurture and expand partnerships for implementing the plan, the Bank will convene working-level meetings with organizations collaborating on ­ specific components on an as-needed basis. It could also organize high-level conferences with a wide range of stakeholders. The first such meeting could take place in the early stages of implementation, in order to spur efforts on both fundraising and action on the ground. The second could take place toward the end of the implementation period (in late 2018, for example). It would be aimed at considering prospects for extending/scaling up the plan in order to achieve its longer-term goals. Briefing during the World Bank Annual and Spring Meetings would be organized on an as-needed basis. A dedicated page on the website of the World Bank Africa Region will be created and maintained to ensure broad dissemination of work carried out under the plan. Box 18.1  The World Bank Group’s Approach to Country Engagement In 2014 the World Bank Group adopted a new approach to country engagement. Known as the Country Partnership Framework (CPF), the new approach aims to make the country-driven model more systematic, evidence based, selective, and focused on the goals of ending extreme poverty and increasing shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. It guides the Bank Group’s support to each member country. A Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) informs each new country partnership. The diagnos- tic identifies the most important challenges and opportunities at the country level for reaching the corporate goals. Consultations with a range of stakeholders informs the SCD process, from diagnostic through completion. ­ Accelerating Climate-Resilient and Low-Carbon Development 137 Table 18.1  World Bank Global Practice Responsible for Each Component of the Africa Climate Business Plan Component Global Practice Climate-smart agriculture Agriculture East Africa climate-resilient landscapes Environment and Natural Resources Forested landscapes Environment and Natural Resources Niger Basin Water (in collaboration with Environment and Natural Resources) Lake Chad Water (in collaboration with Environment and Natural Resources) Zambezi Water Lake Victoria Environment and Natural Resources Climate-smart Africa ocean economies Environment and Natural Resources Climate-smart cities Social, Urban, and Rural Development Coastal resilience (West Africa) Environment and Natural Resources Solar Energy and Extractives Hydropower Energy and Extractives Geothermal Energy and Extractives Migration drivers Social, Urban, and Rural Development Social protection Social, Urban, and Rural Development Africa hydro-met program Social, Urban, and Rural Development Africa Climate Resilient Investment Facility Environment and Natural Resources Within the Bank, implementation of each component of the plan will be led by a Global Practices (GP) collaborating with other units within the Bank as needed (table 18.1). Adequate resources will be secured through the annual Work Program Agreement process, based on consultation and dialogue among the GPs and the relevant Country Management Units. To facilitate the monitoring of progress, a small technical team, led by the Regional Coordinator for Climate Change and working under the oversight of the Practice Manager for Environment and Natural Resources, will work with the GP teams to prepare semiannual progress reports on implementa- tion. The Senior Regional Advisor for Africa will convene semiannual meetings of the GP Senior Directors to review implementation reports; provide strategic ­ direction to the technical work; discuss partnerships, external outreach, and dissemination; and provide inputs to the IDA17 completion report and the IDA18 midterm report. 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