Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: RES9884 INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF THE SECOND EDUCATION SECTOR DEVELOPMENT PROJECT CREDIT NO. IDA-43940 (Approved on April 21, 2008) TO THE REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN February 4, 2014 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA REGION This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS APL Adaptable Program Lending EMIS Education Management Information System IDA International Development Association ISR Implementation Status Report MoE Ministry of Education PDO Project Development Objectives PIU Project Implementation Unit Regional Vice President: Laura Tuck Country Director: Henry G. R. Kerali Acting Sector Director: Alberto Rodriguez Acting Sector Manager: Andrea C. Guedes Task Team Leader: Dandan Chen 3 REPUBLIC OF AZERBAIJAN Second Education Sector Development Project CONTENTS A. SUMMARY Page 10 B. PROJECT BACKGROUND AND STATUS Page 10 C. PROPOSED CHANGES Page 11 D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY Page 14 ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING Page 15 ANNEX 2: OPERATIONAL RISK ASSESSMENT FRAMEWORK Page 27 4 艺 DATA SHEET AzerbaUan Second Education Sector Development Project (P] 02117) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA ECSH2 Report No: RES9884 Basic Information Project ID: P102117 Lending Instrument: Adaptable Program Loan Regional Vice President: Laura Tuck Original EA Category: Partial Assessment (B) Country Director: Henry G. R. Kerali Current EA Category: Partial Assessment (B) Sector Director: Alberto Rodriguez Original Approval Date: 2 1 -Apr-2008 Sector Manager: Andrea C. Guedes Current Closing Date: 3 1 -Mar-2014 Team Leader. Dandan Chen Borrower: Republic of Azerbaijan Responsible Ministry of Education Agency: Khatai Ave, 49, Baku, Azerbaijan Tel: +994 12 496 0647 Restructuring Type Form Type: Full Restructuring Paper Decision Authority: Board Approval Restructuring Levell Level: Financing (as of I-February-2014 Key Dates Approval Effectiveness Original Revised Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Date Signing Date Date Closing Date Closing Date P102117 IDA-43940 Effective 21-Apr-2008 24-Sep-2008 01-Dec-2008 31-Mar-2014 31-Mar-2014 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Un- % disbursed Disbursed P102117 IDA-43940 Effective XDR 15.70 15.70 0.00 11.76 3.94 75 Policy Waivers Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes No X respects? Does the project require any policy waiver(s)? Yes No X 5 A. Summary of Proposed Changes The proposed restructuring would support: (i) revising the Project Development Objectives (PDO) to sharpen the focus on improving the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions as the key project development outcome; (ii) modifying the Results Framework to better measure project outcomes; (iii) extending the Project closing date from March 31, 2014, to March 31, 2016, for an additional 24 months to allow for the Project's successful completion; and (iv) reallocating credit proceeds across priority areas to reflect implementation progress and challenges. Change in Implementing Agency Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Project's Development Objectives Yes [ X ] No[ ] Change in Results Framework Yes [ X ] No[ ] Change in Safeguard Policies Triggered Yes[ ] No [X] Change of EA category Yes[ ] No [X] Other Changes to Safeguards Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Legal Covenants Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Yes [ X] No [ ] Cancellations Proposed Yes[ ] No [X] Change to Financing Plan Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Disbursement Arrangements Yes [ ] No [X] Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes [ X] No [ ] Change to Components and Cost Yes [ X] No [ ] Change in Institutional Arrangements Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Financial Management Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Procurement Yes[ ] No [X] Change in Implementation Schedule Yes [ X] No [ ] Other Change(s) Yes[ ] No [X] Appraisal Summary Change in Economic and Financial Analysis Yes [ ] No [X] Appraisal Summary Change in Technical Analysis Yes [ ] No [X] Appraisal Summary Change in Social Analysis Yes [ ] No [X] Appraisal Summary Change in Environmental Analysis Yes [ ] No [X] Appraisal Summary Change in Risk Analysis Yes [ ] No [X] B. Project Status The Project, which became effective on December 1, 2008, has IDA financing of US$25 million equivalent. As of January 6, 2014, 75% of the credit had been disbursed. The original Project Development Objective is to: (i) enhance the effectiveness of teaching in general secondary schools; (ii) improve learning results in schools which receive new school libraries and where teachers adopt improved teaching practices as a result of in-service training; and (iii) improve efficiency of spending on general education. Progress towards achieving the PDO is measured by three indicators: (i) improved test scores in project targeted schools equipped with new libraries; (ii) increased proportion of teachers using active methodologies in the context of new curriculum; and (iii) improvement in the ratio of students to the 6 number of full-time equivalent teachers. The Project has achieved important results by contributing to the implementation of significant reforms that have expected long term positive impact on the teaching and learning processes in Azerbaijan. Four of the six components of the project supporting these results have consistently been rated as "Satisfactory". The successfully implemented reforms include modernization of the curriculum up to grade 6 and a comprehensive overhaul of the in-service teacher training system. However, implementation of several key activities under Component 5 has been either slow or did not happen due to the fact that undertaking some of the reforms envisaged under this component required broader consensus among a larger number of stakeholders. In the current environment, some of these activities are not likely to be executed or completed before the closing date of March 31, 2014. This in turn undermines the project's ability to meet all of its original development objectives. Reflecting its current status, the latest Implementation Status Report (ISR) (September 6, 2013) downgraded the project's ratings on progress towards achievement of PDO and Implementation Progress (IP) from "Moderately Satisfactory" to "Moderately Unsatisfactory". Recently, the Govermment adopted a new Education Development Strategy, under which the newly appointed Minister of Education has expressed strong commitment to implementing substantial reforms. The Ministry requested the Bank's support, including through the Project, to enhance the quality of teaching and learning in Azerbaijan. The proposed restructuring would also allow the Project to focus on, and scale-up, the successfully implemented activities and to drop those that are unlikely to progress. The Project will need to be extended in order to complete both current and new activities. Development Objectives/Results Project Development Objectives (P102117 - Second Education Sector Development Project) Original PDO The Project Development Objective is to: (i) enhance the effectiveness of teaching in general secondary schools; (ii) improve learning results in schools which receive new school libraries and where teachers adopt improved teaching practices as a result of in-service training; and (iii) improve efficiency of spending on general education. Change in Project's Development Objectives Please describe the change and explain the reason for change The restructuring proposes to revise the PDO in order to focus on improving the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions, dropping the reference to learning outcomes related to school libraries and the objective related to improved efficiency of spending in education. The reason for dropping the former is that libraries were an important input but not a key factor to improvement of learning outcomes. In addition, it takes time for improved teaching and learning conditions to be reflected as improved learning outcomes, which may not be observed during the project implementation period. The latter is dropped, as school rationalization is no longer a priority policy agenda for the Government, as a result of the concern that access to schools may be negatively affected in some communities. Preparation of a comprehensive feasibility study is under way. In addition, as the project covers both general primary and secondary education, the revised PDO would be better aligned with the project's scope, dropping the specific reference to general secondary schools. Proposed New PDO To enhance the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions in general education schools through curriculum reform and teacher in-service training. Change in Results Framework Explanation: 7 The Results Framework will be revised to align it with the revised PDO. Financing Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Explanation: In order to further roll out the curriculum reform, complete the teacher training envisaged under the Project, and wrap-up activities in other components, a two-year extension is requested. Ln/Cr/TF Status Original Closing Current Closing Proposed Closing Previous Closing _ Date Date Date Date(s) IDA- Dt 4394 Effective 31-Mar-2014 31-Mar-2014 131-Mar-2016 31-Mar-2014 43940 Disbursement Estimates Change in Disbursement Estimates Explanation: Disbursement estimates will change to reflect the additional two years of project implementation. Fiscal Year Current (USD) Proposed (USD) 2008 0.00 0.00 2009 2,410,000.00 1,500,000.00 2010 4,730,000.00 527,049.18 2011 4,770,000.00 1,613,255.77 2012 5,050,000.00 5,619,287.73 2013 5,330,000.00 2,000,000.00 2014 2,710,000.00 2,000,000.00 2015 6,500,000.00 2016 5,240,407.32 Total 25,000,000.00 25,000,000.00 Components Change to Components and Cost Explanation: The re-allocation of the US$8.2 million equivalent from the originally unallocated contingency fund is a result of: (1) the enhanced effort and activities of key project components of curriculum reform and training, which include not only intensified technical assistance drawing expertise globally and nationally in curriculum assessment and development, but also enhanced training for teachers to adopt the new curriculum and manage the transition; and (2) increased operational cost due to the envisaged longer implementation time frame. Current Component Proposed Component Current Cost Proposed Action Name Name (US$M) Cost (US$M) Supporting the Implementation of the 10.80 16.50 Revised General Education Curriculum and further 8 curriculum reform. Modernizing In-Service 11.60 18.09 Revised Teacher Training Using Student Assessment for 4.50 2.80 Revised Education Quality Improvement Promoting School 1.60 0.20 Revised Readiness Strengthening Education Policy Development and 4.90 3.50 Revised Management Project Coordination, Monitoring and 3.00 3.60 Revised Evaluation Contingency 9.00 0.80 Revised Total: 45.40 45.40 Other Change(s) Change in Implementation Schedule Explanation: The implementation time frame will be extended by 2 years. This would allow the Project to be successfully completed. In particular, it would enable the curriculum reforms and in-service teacher training to be extended beyond Grade 6 and reach Grade 8 nationwide, and eventually to contribute to the overall achievement of Project Development Objectives. The "contingency" allocation is not shown in the Portal version of the datasheet, due to the system constraint. 9  Azerbaijan: Second Education Sector Development Project Restructuring Paper A. SUMMARY 1. The proposed restructuring would support: (i) revising the Project Development Objectives (PDO) to sharpen the focus on improving the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions as the key project development outcomes; (ii) modifying the Results Framework to better measure the project outcomes; (iii) extending the Project closing date from March 31, 2014, to March 31, 2016, for an additional 24 months to allow for the Project's successful completion; and (iv) reallocating credit proceeds across priority areas to reflect implementation progress and challenges. B. PROJECT BACKGROUND AND STATUS 2. The Project, which became effective on December 1, 2008, has IDA financing of US$25 million equivalent. As of January 6, 2014, 75% of the credit had been disbursed. The original Project Development Objective is to: (i) enhance the effectiveness of teaching in general secondary schools; (ii) improve learning results in schools which receive new school libraries and where teachers adopt improved teaching practices as a result of in-service training; and (iii) improve efficiency of spending on general education. Progress towards achieving the PDO is measured by three indicators: (i) Improved test scores in project targeted schools equipped with new libraries; (ii) Increased proportion of teachers using active methodologies in the context of new curriculum; and (iii) Improvement in the ratio of students to the number of full-time equivalent teachers. 3. A summary of progress towards achieving the PDO is as follows: Table 1: Progress towards achieving PDO PDO indicators: Comments on Progress to date: Improved test scores in project targeted schools There is an improvement. However this indicator equipped with new libraries has been found inadequate for measuring project outcome, as library books do not necessarily lead to learning outcome improvement. Increased proportion of teachers using active On track. methodologies in the context of new curriculum Improvement in the ratio of students to the number of Not on track; due to institutional complexity and full-time equivalent teachers stalled implementation of closing and merging schools. 4. The Project has achieved important results by contributing to the implementation of significant reforms that have expected long term positive impact on the teaching and learning processes in Azerbaijan. Four of the six components of the project supporting these results have consistently been rated as "Satisfactory". The successfully implemented reforms include modernization of the curriculum up to grade 6 and a comprehensive overhaul of the in-service teacher training system. However, implementation of several key activities under Component 5 has been either slow or did not happen due to the fact that undertaking some of the reforms envisaged under this 10 component required broader consensus among a larger number of stakeholders. In the current environment, some of these activities are not likely to be executed or completed before the closing date of March 31, 2014. This in turn undermines the project's ability to meet all of its original development objectives. Reflecting its current status, the latest Implementation Status Report (ISR) (September 6, 2013) downgraded the project's ratings on progress towards achievement of PDO and Implementation Progress (IP) from "Moderately Satisfactory" to "Moderately Unsatisfactory". 5. Recently, the Government adopted a new Education Development Strategy, under which the newly appointed Minister of Education has expressed strong commitment to implementing substantial reforms. The Ministry requested the Bank's support, including through the Project, to enhance the quality of teaching and learning in Azerbaijan. The proposed restructuring would also allow the Project to focus on, and scale-up, the successfully implemented activities and to drop those that are unlikely to progress. The Project will need to be extended in order to complete both current and new activities. C. PROPOSED CHANGES 6. Project Development Objectives and Results Framework. This Project Paper seeks approval to revise the Project Development Objectives (PDO) to sharpen the focus on improving the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions as the key project development outcome. The Results Framework would also be adjusted with revisions of PDO indicators and intermediate results indicators. The proposed key revisions are summarized in Table 2. A detailed Results Framework with progress to-date and target values is included in Annex 1. Table 2: Summary of proposed PDO and PDO indicator revisions Current Proposed change Explanation/rationale PDO The original Project To enhance the The restructuring proposes to re-focus Development Objectives are to: effectiveness of teaching the PDO on the objective of improving (i) enhance the effectiveness of and learning conditions in effectiveness of teaching and learning teaching in general secondary general education schools conditions, while dropping: (i) the schools; (ii) improve learning through curriculum reference to learning outcomes related results in schools which receive reform and teacher in- to school libraries, as school libraries new school libraries and where service training, are an important input, but not a key teachers adopt improved factor to improvement of learning teaching practices as a result of outcomes. In addition, it takes time for in-service training; and (iii) improved teaching and learning improve efficiency of spending conditions to be reflected as improved on general education, learning outcomes, which may not be observed during the project implementation period; and (ii) the objective related to improved efficiency of spending in education, as the school rationalization is no longer a policy agenda within the implementation time frame. This is mainly due to the concern that access to schools may be negatively affected in some communities. Preparation of a comprehensive feasibility study is under way. oucms1nadton1ttkstm o In addition, as the project covers both general primary and secondary education, the new PDO would be better aligned with the project scope, dropping the specific reference to general secondary schools. PDO Improved test scores in project Dropped This indicator is not adequate for indicators targeted schools equipped with measuring project outcomes, as library new libraries books do not necessarily lead to learning improvements. Increased proportion of teachers Revised. This indicator continues to be essential using active methodologies in to capture the intended project objective the context of new curriculum of improved teaching and learning. The target value, which was not set originally, has been specified. Improvement in the ratio of Dropped Due to institutional complexity and students to the number of full- stalled implementation of closing and time equivalent teachers merging schools, the related activities are no longer going to be carried out. New curriculum officially New Curriculum reform and implementation adopted in grades 1-8 are major investments under this project for improving teaching and learning conditions, and are expected to have a significant impact on teaching and learning outcomes. Technically adequate sample- New Even though learning outcome based2 student assessment is improvement may not be observed implemented during project implementation period, student assessment is an essential element for evaluating teaching and learning through rigorous monitoring and diagnostics, and to inform policies beyond the project closing date. 7. Reallocation of Credit proceeds. The re-allocation of the US$8.2 million equivalent from originally unallocated contingency fund is a result of: (1) the enhanced effort and activities of key project components of curriculum reform and teacher training, which include not only intensified technical assistance drawing expertise globally and nationally in curriculum assessment and development, but also enhanced training for teachers to adopt the new curriculum and manage the transition; and (2) increased operational cost due to the envisaged longer implementation time frame. 8. The reallocation of the credit proceeds aims to capitalize on the Project's important successes without losing sight of the original intention to continue the improvements in teaching and learning across the system. The progress of project activities to date clearly indicates that there is a significant difference between those activities for which there were ownership and buy-in, and those for which broader institutional support or stakeholder consensus were lacking. In the case of the former, implementation moved forward with considerable focus and success, and the results are beginning to be discernible. In contrast, in those areas where there was little or no ownership, such as the rationalization of school networks or the reforms that depended almost 2 As common practice, the assessments will not cover all grades, but only selected grades based on specific evaluation needs. 12 exclusively on libraries to drive pedagogic improvements, there has been little traction. As a result, the proposed restructuring would allow the Project to refocus on those areas of greatest Government priority and ownership. 9. Several initiatives implemented by the Government call for a few changes in the implementation plan of project activities and further reallocation of Credit proceeds. These include: the promotion of private participation in teacher training provision; postponement of participation in the new round of international student assessment to align the timing with the completion of curriculum reform; transfer of the administration of national examinations and the management of education information and data out of the Ministry of Education; and the preparation of a comprehensive feasibility study and implementation plan for school per capita funding before its implementation. In these instances, the restructuring aims to make the necessary adjustments in the allocation of Project fund across components in accordance with the current implementation plan. 10. A summary of the proposed reallocation of credit proceeds is in Table 3. Table 3: Summary of proposed reallocation of Project Proceeds Original Cost Proposed Cost Component Name(U$)USM (US$M) (US$M) Supporting the Implementation of the General Education Curriculum and further curriculum 10.80 16.50 reform. Modernizing In-Service Teacher Training 11.60 18.00 Using Student Assessment for Education Quality 4.50 2.80 Improvement Promoting School Readiness 1.60 0.20 Strengthening Education Policy Development and 4.90 3.50 Management Project Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation 3.00 3.60 Contingency 9.00 0.80 Total 45.40 45.40 11. Closing date. Under the proposed restructuring, the Project would be extended by 24 months, until March 31, 2016. This would be the first extension, and it would allow the Project to be successfully completed. In particular, it would enable the curriculum reforms and in-service teacher training to be extended beyond Grade 6 and reach Grade 8 nationwide, and eventually to contribute to the overall achievement of Project Development Objectives. 12. All fiduciary aspects of the Project implementation are rated Satisfactory. There are no outstanding audit reports or audit reports which are not satisfactory to the Bank. A revised implementation plan satisfactory to the Bank has been prepared by the implementing agency. The Government has confirmed its commitment to the revised PDO and the implementation of the restructured project. The revised PDOs are achievable within the extended implementation period. 13 D. APPRAISAL SUMMARY 13. One factor that contributes to the improvement of the efficiency of education sector public spending and investment is the rationalization and consolidation of small schools supported by the original project design. To date, school rationalization is no longer a policy agenda within the implementation time frame. However, the large gain in project benefit as envisaged by the original project economic and financial analysis is not derived under the assumption of school consolidation. The improved teaching and learning conditions as a result of the project is expected to lead to an increased number of secondary school graduates with desired quality of skills and thus to an increase in the total value of potential labor market earnings. Therefore, the total project benefit as measured by the expected labor market earnings continues to exceed the investment cost of the Project. As such, the results of the economic and financial analysis would remain valid even under the proposed restructuring. 14 Annex 1 Results Framework Azerbaijan: Second Education Sector Development Project (P102117) Project Second Education Sector Development Project (P102117) Restructuring Status: DRAFT Name: Stage: Team Requesting Lead: Dandan Chen uit: ECCU3 Created by: Meskerem Mulatu on 15-Mar-2013 Leader: Unit: Product IBRD/IDA Responsible ECSH2 Modified by: Dandan Chen on 15-Nov-2013 Line: Unit: Country: Azerbaijan Approval FY: 2008 .EUROPE AND CENTRAL Lending Region: ASIA CnstAmen t: Adaptable Program Loan ASIA Instrument: Project Development Objectives Original Project Development Objective: The Project Development Objectives are to: (i) enhance the effectiveness of teaching in general secondary schools; (ii) improve learning results in schools which receive new school libraries and where teachers adopt improved teaching practices as a result of in-service training; and (iii) improve efficiency of spending on general education. Proposed New Project Development Objectives: To enhance the effectiveness of teaching and learning conditions in general education schools through curriculum reform and teacher in-service training. Results Core sector indicators are considered: Yes Results reporting level: Project Level Project Development Objective Indicators Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target Dropped Improved test scores in Text Value In 2009, for 2011 Mother Average scores project's targeted schools target group in tongue 9th grade: in library equipped with new libraries 9th grade 3.5% got 2 (low); schools above (compared to control group). mother tongue, 24.1% got 3; control group. on 2-5 scale 66.1% got 4 and (low-high), 6.3% got 5. In 4.1% got 2 math, 22.7% got (low); 29.2% 2; 40.8% got 3; got 3; 57.7% 34.2%got 4 and got4 and 9.1% 2.3% got 5. got 5 (high). For math, the scores were: 13.5% got 2; 38.8% got 3; 40.3% got 4 and 7.5% got 5. Date 30-Jun-2009 15-Jul-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment Baseline The mixed updated to improvements in reflect 2009 mother tongue data, which (fewer low but was earliest fewer high) and available. the declines in 16 math (more low and fewer high) reflect general trends and are not linked to library books, which had not yet been delivered. Revised Increased proportion of Text Value 2010: 10.6% 28% of classes 30% percent or teachers using active of teachers observed in 2012 above methodologies in the context of used active reflect active the new curriculum. learning; 64% methodologies, as used mix of compared to both active and 10.6% in 2010. traditional lecture mode teaching; and 26% used all traditional. Date 21-Apr-2008 15-Jul-2013 3 1-Dec-2015 Comment Baseline This is based on Target value updated to an observation of was not set reflect 2010 1,014 classes in originally. At data, which 2012 as part of a least 30% end was earliest qualitative target should be available. survey. expected Dropped Improvement in the ratio of 7] Text Value 11.8 10.6 12.5 17 student to the number of full- Date 21 -Apr-2008 08-Jul-2013 31-Mar-2014 time equivalent teachers. Comment No new data are available since last ISR. New Technically adequate sample- H Yes/No Value No Yes Yes based student assessment is Date 21 -Apr-2008 30-Sep-2013 31 -Dec-2015 implemented Comment Assessment is Additional implemented in assessment is Grade 4. implemented New New curriculum officially H Yes/No Value Yes Yes Yes adopted in Grade 1-8 Date 21-Apr-2008 30-Sep-2013 31-Dec-2015 Comment New New curriculum New curriculum curriculum implemented in implemented in was only Grade 1-6 Grade 1-8 rolled out at Grade 1 Intermediate Results Indicators Status Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Actual(Current) End Target Dropped % of 4th graders who visited H Text Value In 167 of 500 In 160 of 500 Number of visits the school library in the target schools, target schools in increase. previous month 7.8% of 4th Jan/Feb 2012, graders visited 11% of 4th libraries graders visited libraries, an 18 increase of 3.2 points. Date 21 -Apr-2008 01-Apr-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment Due to delays in procuring library books, Oct/Nov 2009 data is being used as the baseline Dropped % of methodologists capable to Text Value 50% 100% 100% (at least providing continued support to 90%) teachers on issues of new Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2012 31 -Mar-2014 curriculum, assessment tools and use of new learning Comment Baseline In 2012, 100% of materials. updated to methodologists reflect first were found data available capable of from study in providing support 2010. to teachers. Please note, however, that given the small numbers of methodologists, teacher training is now done using a new outsourcing 19 model with non- gov institutions. Dropped Discussion of test results El Text Value No discussion Test results are Annual report included in an annual report of test results posted on the discusses test made publicly available. in 2006 annual MOE website. results. report. Date 21-Apr-2008 01-Apr-2013 3 1-Mar-2014 Comment Dropped Test results used to justify Text Value No discussion No progress. Specific budget requests in annual of tests results investment budget framework paper in 2006 budget needs and submitted to MOF. framework interventions are paper. justified on the basis of test results. Date 21 -Apr-2008 01-Apr-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment Not likely to be done. Without a program budget in place government-wide, there is little appetite (or rationale) for doing this just for the education 20 budget. Dropped % of Rayon Education Text Value REDs do not No information Specific Department's annual 3-year submit 3-year available on investment strategy papers that discusses strategy to outcome of needs are test results and uses results to MoE. 1-year review of rayon justified by justify policy actions and plans do not strategies. student investment plans. discuss test assessment results. results Date 21 -Apr-2008 01-Apr-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment Rayons have submitted their strategies, which are under review. MOE is no longer requiring them to do strategies. Revised (Target % of population that recognizes Text Value Limited In 2010, 96.4% of Above 97% for was made more the importance of pre-school understanding school principals, school specific) for a child's school readiness. of the 85.7% of teachers principals; importance of and 82.9% of Above 86% for pre-school and parents valued the teachers; no surveys importance of Above 83% for conducted to preschool parents measure education. In parent's 2011 the level of understanding. school principals who agreed on 21 importance of preschool program did not change. In 2011 this indicator went up to 93% among teachers- respondents and 87.2% among parents- respondents. Date 21-Apr-2008 15-Jul-2013 3 1-Dec-2015 Comment Given that the current awareness level is already high, there may be limited scope to see significant increase during extension. Dropped Number of schools merged or E Text Value No baseline. No progress. Net decrease is schools in previous fiscal year 3-5 percent of (as a % of total number of the school schools). system each year (100-250 schools). 22 Date 21 -Apr-2008 01-Apr-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment There is no political will to make this happen. Dropped Number of quarterly queries of E Text Value In 2009, there No available Number of Education Management were 924 information. queries increase. Information System. queries in a quarter. Date 30-Jun-2009 01-Apr-2013 31-Mar-2014 Comment Baseline EMIS updated with responsibilities 2009 are divided information. between two institutions that have not yet reconciled their differences to develop the system further. No change % of population understanding Text Value PR office does In both 2010 and Percent support and supporting education not measure its 2011, 94% of the same or reforms. effectiveness parents positively improved by such evaluated the compared to surveys. impact of new baseline. curriculum on pupil's development. In 23 2010, 72.4% of teachers were partly or completely satisfied with education reforms. In 2011 that total rose to 89.8%, although those who answered that they were "completely satisfied" declined from 43.7% to 24.7%. in 2010, 99.2% of principals were satisfied with education reforms. In 2011 that increased to 99.6%. Date 21 -Apr-2008 15-Jul-2013 31-Dec-2015 Comment Increased % or maintained high % of support during project 24 extension. (Given that the % is already high; there may be limited scope to see significant increase during extension). No change System for learning assessment Yes/No Value No Yes Yes at the primary level Date 30-May-2009 01-Apr-2013 3 1-Dec-2015 Comment Three criteria for "4" utility rating have been fulfilled: data have been analyzed, disaggregated results are available, and assessments are done at least every 5 years. No change Utility of the learning Number Value 0.00 4.00 3.00 assessment system Sub Type Supplemental 25 New Establishment of system of in- E] Yes/No Value No Yes Yes service training allowing Date 21 -Apr-2008 30-Sep-2013 31 -Dec-2015 provision of non-government institutions Comment only state Several cohorts of Additional institutions in-service teacher cohorts of in- offered in- training have service teacher service teacher been provided training training through open provided by competition private training among private providers training providers New Number of teachers Number Value 8000.00 56153.00 participating in new curriculum Date 31 -Dec-2009 31-Dec-2012 31-Dec-2015 related in-service training Comment last reporting end All teachers 2012; number is delivering new cumulative curriculum are trained 26 Annex 2 Operational Risk Assessment Framework (ORAF) Azerbaijan: Second Education Sector Development Project (P102117) Stakeholder Risk Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: The Ministry of Education is fully committed to The Project activities should be closely aligned with the new Education Sector Strategic continuing and deepening the reforms under the project. Plan and be integrated as part of the implementation "road map" of the Strategic Plan. However, in some policy and technical areas, lack of brod onenusma ars n asmlmnain Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: broad consensus may anise and cause implementation delay. Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Capacity Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: The project has a capable PIU with good track record Bank team will engage as needed, particularly in the form of providing training sessions including fiduciary performance. The main risk in to new officials and staff in project implementation including fiduciary aspects. implementation capacity lies in the need for smooth coodiatonbewen elvat oEdearmetsan ~ Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: coordination between relevant MoE departments and PIU. Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Governance Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: The key governance risk is related to the decision-making Throughout the project implementation, PIU will provide quarterly progress report. In process, which can be slow due to lack of relevant the meantime, Bank will share global knowledge, particularly involving policy-makers information or technical expertise. and sector staff in regional and global knowledge and policy events. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: 27 Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Risk Management: Bank fiduciary team will be closely involved in project implementation support for continued prevention of such incidence to happen. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Design Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: The policy areas that need consultancy services are wide The Bank team will work closely with the Government, providing technical inputs as in scope, which may lead to inadequate quality control needed. from TOR preparation to final outputs delivery. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Social and Environmental Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: There is still a large urban-rural gap in education The risk will be mitigated through close monitoring of the trend of these social gaps, attainment in Azerbaijan. Gender-gap also exists in while in the meantime, giving attention to these social dimensions in policy advisory school enrollment particularly at higher levels of work. education. There is a risk that these gaps will enlarge Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: without targeted policies and interventions. Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Program and Donor Rating Low Risk Description: Risk Management: There are several donor-supported activities in the Close engagement with all development partners particularly through consultations for education sector, which may reflect different sector any policy advisory work under the Project. Disseminating project information and 28 priorities and policy directions. seeking implementation feedback should also be periodically carried out. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: Many innovations under the project have garnered positive With the new Education Sector Strategy approved, the Bank will support the reactions both from government and from stakeholders; Government team in developing an implementation roadmap. Innovations and the PIU has been playing an important coordination role successes under the Project should be incorporated into this roadmap. so far. There is a risk that some of the activities will not Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: quency: be mainstreamed into the MOE system after project finishes. Both Not Yet Due Implementation 30-Sep-2014 Other (Optional) Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: The Government has approved a new education sector Close collaboration during the roadmap development; flexible implementation plan strategy recently, and an implementation roadmap is under under the overarching objective of improving teaching and learning. preparation. The roadmap may require further preparatio. .h oda a eur ute Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: prioritization of the project activities and lead to additional project change. Both Not Yet Due Implementation Yearly Overall Implementation Risk: Rating Moderate Risk Description: At this point, the implementation risk is related to the potentially additional project changes in the next 6-12 months, as the Government has approved a new education sector strategy recently, and an implementation roadmap is under preparation. Any further prioritization of the project activities and related additional project changes that may be required by the roadmap will be discussed and risks mitigated through close collaboration during the roadmap development; together with a flexible implementation plan under the overarching objective of improving teaching and learning. 29 priorities and policy directions. seeking implementation feedback should also be periodically carried out. Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: Both In Progress Implementation Continuous Delivery Monitoring and Sustainability Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: Many innovations under the project have garnered positive With the new Education Sector Strategy approved, the Bank will support the reactions both from government and from stakeholders; Government team in developing an implementation roadmap. Innovations and the PIU has been playing an important coordination role successes under the Project should be incorporated into this roadmap. so far. There is a risk that some of the activities will not Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: quency: be mainstreamed into the MOE system after project finishes. Both Not Yet Due Implementation 30-Sep-2014 Other (Optional) Rating Moderate Risk Description: Risk Management: The Government has approved a new education sector Close collaboration during the roadmap development; flexible implementation plan strategy recently, and an implementation roadmap is under under the overarching objective of improving teaching and learning. preparation. The roadmap may require further preparatio. .h oda a eur ute Resp: Status: Stage: Recurrent: Due Date: Frequency: prioritization of the project activities and lead to additional project change. Both Not Yet Due Implementation Yearly Overall Implementation Risk: Rating Moderate Risk Description: At this point, the implementation risk is related to the potentially additional project changes in the next 6-12 months, as the Government has approved a new education sector strategy recently, and an implementation roadmap is under preparation. Any further prioritization of the project activities and related additional project changes that may be required by the roadmap will be discussed and risks mitigated through close collaboration during the roadmap development; together with a flexible implementation plan under the overarching objective of improving teaching and learning. 29