Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: 74456-TZ RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT CREDIT BOARD APPROVAL: MARCH 1, 2007 TO THE UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA March 31, 2013 Education Sector Country Department AFCE1 Africa Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. 1 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS CAS Country Assistance Strategy CSEE Certificate of Secondary Education Examination MoEVT Ministry of Education and Vocational Training NECTA National Examinations Council of Tanzania OCAG Office of the Controller and Auditor General PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective SDR Special Drawing Rights US$ United States Dollar Regional Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Philippe Dongier Sector Manager / Director: Sajitha Bashir / Ritva Reinikka Task Team Leader: Arun R. Joshi 2 TANZANIA ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT CONTENTS Page A. SUMMARY ........................................................................................................................... 4 B. PROJECT STATUS .............................................................................................................. 4 C. PROPOSED CHANGES ...................................................................................................... 6 ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................. 9 ANNEX 2: REALLOCATION OF PROCEEDS ...................................................................... 11 ANNEX 3: EXTENSION OF CLOSING DATE ...................................................................... 12 3 TANZANIA ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT RESTRUCTING PAPER A. SUMMARY This Project Paper seeks the approval of the Country Director to introduce four changes to the Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (the Project) and any accompanying amendment to the project legal documents, i.e., (1) to allocate unallocated amount and reallocate saving across categories to finance on-going activities that are in need of additional resources; (2) to change target values for three Project Development Objective (PDO) Indicators; (3) to introduce one new PDO indicator; and (4) to extend the project closing date by four months. The proposed changes are minor and have been requested by the Government in order to consolidate and complete its various ongoing activities in view of meeting the PDO. B. PROJECT STATUS 1. Background. The Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement (SDR28.2 million, US$42 million equivalent) was approved by the Board on April 24, 2007, signed on June 25, 2007 and declared effective on January 29, 2008. The original closing date is July 31, 2013. 2. PDO. The PDO is ‘to improve completion in lower secondary education (the first four years) with successful performance among students.’ The original Project design included three PDO Indicators and ten1 intermediate outcome indicators to monitor progress towards the PDO. Overall, the PDO remains valid/ relevant and continues to be achievable, even though a modest extension of project closing date will be needed to complete all outstanding activities. 3. Overall, PDO progress has been on track. During the last two years of implementation, PDO indicators showed increasing divergence with the PDO targets, prompting the Bank team to downgrade the PDO rating to ‘Moderately Unsatisfactory’ and the Government to carefully review the causes. Key assumptions driving the original targets have been found to be erroneous. 4. Implementation Progress. The Project has been under implementation since July 1, 2007 and overall implementation progress is Moderately Satisfactory. Most activities are expected to be completed prior to the project closing date of July 31, 2013. On Component 1 related to infrastructure, the current progress of school construction is on track with majority of the schools completed and already fully functional: this includes the appointment of the heads of schools, teachers, installation of equipment and furniture, distribution of textbooks. Total enrollment in new schools is currently 6,880. The 1 The seventh intermediate outcome indicator, ‘textbook/pupil ratio’ is now broken into four outcome indicators by subjects (Mathematics, Physics, English and Kiswahili). 4 remaining schools under construction are between 65% - 95% completed. As reflected in the disbursement chart, implementation progress of this operation has picked up significantly in the last two years and has been able to offset the lost time which was caused by extensive delays during the start of the project. 5. On Component 2, related to quality enhancing interventions, the implementation of all earmarked activities has been completed except two which are ongoing. These two activities include the procurement of remaining textbooks, which is currently at contract signing stage (the delivery may requires extra two months beyond closing date); and the training of the last cohort of English language, science and mathematics teachers, which is also expected to be completed four months beyond the project closing date. 6. Currently about 80% of project implementation timeline has elapsed, while 77% of the US$42 million equivalent credit has been disbursed. According to the latest figures from the Ministry of Education and Vocational Training (MoEVT), US$31.08 million of the credit has been fully paid and by December 31, 2012, after concluding contract for remaining textbooks, disbursement and commitments is expected to reach 95% of the credit. 7. Outcome indicators. Two out of the three original PDO Indicators (the number of Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) takers and passers) show reasonably good progress, driven particularly by good performance amongst females, but have not achieved the projected targets of the PDO indicators. As a result the lower secondary completion rate improved from 27 percent in 2007 to 42 percent in 2011. Zanzibar's secondary completion rate is now similar to other Sub-Saharan African countries (very close, for example, to Ethiopia's secondary completion rate of 43 percent), while it was much lower before the project was implemented. However, the third PDO indicator (the number of CSEE passers with Division III+) is off-track: the number of students passing with Division III+ in fact declined over time. The Government is investigating this deterioration in exam results at the upper end of the performance scale since 2009, which has recently also been observed in mainland Tanzania. 8. Institutional Arrangements. The Project is coordinated by the Director of Secondary Education, with technical and operational support provided by her staff comprising the Project Management Team. The project activities continue to be implemented as planned by agencies of the MoEVT, notably the Zanzibar Institute of Education (for the curriculum, textbooks, and girls' science camps), the Office of the Commissioner of Education (for life skills training), the Department of Teacher Education, and the Office of the Chief Inspector of Schools (for school leaders training). Project procurement, financial management, and monitoring and evaluation are carried out by responsible units of the MoEVT. 9. Safeguards. There are no changes to the environmental and social safeguards aspects of the Project. The proposed restructuring of the Project does not require a revised safeguards management plan, monitoring and reporting requirement. 5 10. Financial Management. The overall project financial management rating is ‘Satisfactory’. The financial management risk rating assigned to the project remains ‘Moderate’. 11. Audit. The project audit report for Fiscal Year Ending June 2012 was submitted to the World Bank six weeks after the deadline. The CAG issued ‘Unqualified’ (clean) opinion on the financial statement of the project. Currently, the audit is done by the Office of the Controller and Auditor General (OCAG). The project was required to implement audit recommendations including refund of ineligible expenditure of TZS. 60,196,300. The Government has taken immediate action in addressing these issues, and we are informed that TZS 30,000,000 has already been refunded in project account and the Government has committed to pay the remaining amount by March 31, 2013. 12. Procurement and Work plan. A revised procurement and work plan based on proposed changes have already been submitted by the Government and is found to be satisfactory. Overall, the project procurement processes is rated ‘Satisfactory’. C. PROPOSED CHANGES 13. The proposed modifications for this project restructuring are: (1) to allocate unallocated amount and reallocate savings across categories to finance critical activities that are in need of additional resources; (2) to change PDO indicators target values; (3) to add a new PDO indicator; and (4) to extend the project closing date by four months. The proposed changes will not affect the formulation of the PDO. They will help to consolidate and strengthen various on-going activities across components and categories, complete all planned activities across components and categories before closing, and meet the PDO as measured by related outcome indicators. 14. Reallocations. Due to exchange rate gains (SDR vs. US$), the overall project allocation has increased from initially US$42 million to now US$43.4 million, as per Client Connection of January 15, 2013. The proposed reallocation will take into account this increase as well as allocations between categories. (Details see Annex 2, below). 15. Change in PDO Target Values. A key assumption made during project preparation had created a situation where PDO targets were unrealistically high. Initially, it had been assumed, given the Government's anticipated decision at the time to abolish Form II exams that 100% of students in Form II would transit into Form III. As a result, the targets of (i) students taking the CSEE exams (at the end of Form IV), (ii) passing the CSEE exams, and (iii) passing them with Div. I – III, as reflected by the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) indicator targets, were pitched quite high. Soon after the start of project implementation though, the Government decided not to abolish Form II exams and, instead continue using it as a process to assess student learning. In this situation, the Form II to Form III transition rates, with the bottleneck of Form II exams not being removed, have been less than 60% (but rising slowly), which impacted on all indicator targets related to the end of lower secondary education. Decreased, more realistic target values will show better progress rates. The World Bank team, upon suggestion of the Government, is proposing to revise these targets, in order to allow for an upgrading of the PDO rating to ‘Moderately Satisfactory’, once formally approved. Proposed changes of 6 new PDO target values are summarized in Table 2 below. Details of revised projection are summarized in Supplemental Table of Revised Projection below. Table 2: Changes of PDO Target Values (End Year) PDO Indicators Original Revised 1) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by gender, taking the 19,680 13,962 Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) given at the end of lower secondary education. 2) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by gender, passing the 17,908 12,705 Examination (CSEE) at the end of lower secondary education. 3) Number of pupils, disaggregated by gender, passing the 3,739 2,653 Certificate of Secondary Education Examination (CSEE) in Div. III or better. 17. New PDO Indicator. The Government team also suggests adding a new PDO Indicator, to measure lower secondary completion rates, i.e., “The percentage of Certificate of Secondary Education Exam (CSEE) takers divided by the population aged 17 years� (the official graduation age for Form IV).One advantage of this new indicator is that it will allow comparing completion rates over time and with other countries. See Annex 1 for baseline, actual, and target figures. 18. Extension of Project Closing Date by four months, from July 31, 2013 to November 30, 2013 (see Annex 3, below). This will allow adequate time to complete (i) procurement processes of remaining textbook and instructional materials for grade 1-4 and (ii) teachers training programs. Supplemental Table of Revised Projection 7 8 ANNEX 1: Results Framework and Monitoring TANZANIA: ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCATION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT Project Development Objective (PDO): To improve completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students. D=Dropped Target and Actual Values3 Responsibility Core C=Continue Unit of Baseline Data Source/ PDO Level Results Indicators N= New 2 Frequency Methodology for Data Measure 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Collection R=Revised 1) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by T: 8,446 T: 8,725 T: 17,030 T: 11,877 T: n/a gender, taking the Certificate of F: 4,301 F: 4,411 F: 9,372 F: 6,386 F: n/a T: 7,250 M: 4,145 M: 4,314 M: 7,658 M: 5,491 M: n/a Secondary Education Examination R Number F: 3,708 (T: 7,876) (T: 8,684) (T: 20,917) (T: 13,809) (T: 13,962) Annual CSEE NECTA (CSEE) given at the end of lower M: 3,542 (F: 3,938) (F: 4,342) (F: 10,458) (F: 6,905) (F: 6,981) secondary education. (M: 3,938) (M: 4,342) (M: 10,458) (M: 6,905) (M: 6,981) T: 6,533 T: 7,066 T: 12,202 T: 9,020 T: n/a 2) Numbers of pupils, disaggregated by F: 3,289 F: 3,584 F: 6,695 F: 4,018 F: n/a T: 6,136 M: 3,244 M: 3,482 M: 5,507 M: 5,002 M: n/a gender, passing the CSEE at the end of R Number F: 3,186 (T: 7,167) (T: 7,902) (T: 19,034) (T: 12,566) (T: 12,705) Annual CSEE NECTA lower secondary education. M: 2,950 (F: 3,538) (F: 3,951) (F: 9,517) (F: 6,283) (F: 6,352) (M: 3,538) (M: 3,951) (M: 9,517) (M: 6,283) (M: 6,352) T: 1,274 T: 1,408 T: 1,598 T: 939 T: n/a 3) Number of pupils, disaggregated by F: 507 F: 624 F: 700 F: 460 F: n/a T:1,402 M: 767 M: 784 M: 898 M: 479 M: n/a gender, passing the CSEE in Div. III or R Number F: 578 (T: 1,496) (T: 1,650) (T: 3,974) (T: 2,624) (T: 2,653) Annual CSEE NECTA better M: 824 (F: 648) (F: 742) (F: 1,855) (F: 1,268) (F: 1,326) (M: 848) (M: 907) (M: 2,120) (M: 1,356) (M: 1,326) T: 31% T: 32% T: 61% T: 42% T: n/a 4) Lower secondary completion rate: F: 32% F: 32% F: 67% F: 45% F: n/a T: 27% Percent M: 30% M: 31% M: 54% M: 39% M: n/a Number of pupils taking the CSEE / N F: 28% (T: 29) (T: 31) (T: 75) (T: 49) (T: 49) Annual CSEE/OCGS NECTA age M: 26% population aged 17 years (new) (F: 29) (F: 32) (F: 75) (F: 49) (F: 49) (M: 28) (M: 31) (M: 74) (M: 49) (M: 49) Intermediate Results Indicators 1) Percentage of teachers teaching at Percent n/a n/a n/a 70% 79% School Statistics secondary level who are qualified to C 59% (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (65%) Annual age questionnaire Section, MoE teach at the secondary level 2) Percentage of teachers of Percent n/a n/a n/a 48% 47% School Statistics mathematics who are qualified to teach C 28% (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (65%) Annual age questionnaire Section, MoE secondary school mathematics 3) Percentage of secondary biology Percent n/a n/a n/a 55% 59% School Statistics teachers qualified to teach secondary C 38% (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (65%) Annual age questionnaire Section, MoE school biology 4) Percentage of secondary chemistry Percent n/a n/a n/a 53% 62% School Statistics teachers qualified to teach secondary C 43% (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (65%) Annual age questionnaire Section, MoE school chemistry 2 Baseline data for PDO Indicators refer to Year 2007, and baseline data for Intermediate Results Indicators refer to Year 2006 because 2007 data are not available for Intermediate Results Indicators. 3 The Project team considers 2012 as project end year. Since project implementation goes up to January 2013, one could have used 2013 as ‘end of project’ year. However, data relating to 2013 will only become available in 2014 and this would have significantly delayed project evaluation. 9 5) Percentage of secondary physics Percent n/a n/a n/a 55% 57% School Statistics teachers qualified to teach secondary C 39% (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (65%) Annual age questionnaire Section, MoE school physics 6) Pupil/Classroom ratio in secondary n/a n/a n/a 65 73 School Statistics C Number 83 Annual education (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (92) questionnaire Section, MoE 7) Textbook/pupil ratio - Mathematics n/a n/a n/a 1.0 n/a School Statistics (Form IV) C Number n/a (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (1.0) Annual questionnaire Section, MoE 8) Textbook/pupil ratio - Physics (Form n/a n/a n/a 0.8 n/a School Statistics C Number n/a Annual IV) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (1.0) questionnaire Section, MoE 9) Textbook/pupil ratio - English (Form n/a n/a n/a 0.9 n/a School Statistics IV) C Number n/a (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (1.0) Annual questionnaire Section, MoE 10) Textbook/pupil ratio - Kiswahili n/a n/a n/a 0.1 n/a School Statistics C Number n/a Annual (Form IV) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (n/a) (1.0) questionnaire Section, MoE 10 ANNEX 2: Reallocation of Proceeds TANZANIA – ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCAION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT P102262 CREDIT Restructuring Paper 1. Proceeds for Tanzania Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (Credit No 42930, P102262) will be reallocated as follow: Category of Expenditure Allocation % of Financing Current Revised Current Revised Current Revise (1) Works under Part 1 of (1) Works under Part 1 of 26,808,511 28,209,674 100 100 the Project the Project (2) Goods: (a) for Parts 1 (2) Goods: (a) for Parts 1 1,589,149 1,470,551.05 100 100 and 2 (1) of the Project and 2 (1) of the Project (2) Goods: (b) for Part 2 (2) Goods: (b) for Part 2 8,389,574 8,363,715.95 100 100 (2) of the Project (2) of the Project (3) Consultants’ services (3) Consultants’ services 1,831,915 2,337,594.5 100 100 (4) Operating Costs (4) Operating Costs 1,385,106 935,008.5 100 100 (5) Unallocated (5) Unallocated 506,383 0 100 100 (6) Training for Part 2 of (6) Training for Part 2 of 1,489,362 2,087,486 100 100 the Project the Project Total Total 42,000,000 43,404,030 100 100 2. The Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project has been under implementation since July 1, 2007 and overall implementation progress is moderately satisfactory. The Project's original closing date is June 30, 2013. Currently about 80% of project implementation time has elapsed and some 77% of the US$42 million equivalent has been disbursed. Implementations of all remaining activities are ongoing as planned. 3. The proposed reallocation is necessary to achieve the PDO, ‘to improve completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students.’ Some savings have occurred because operating expenses and procurement of goods have been provided at lower prices than originally estimated prices and exchange rate gain has realized additional resources. The Government requested to reallocate the savings to different activities across components and categories, where greater needs than originally planned have been assessed. Requested reallocations of savings are as above table. The total amount of credit has increased from initially US$42 million to now US$43.4 million, as per the Client Connection as at January 15, 2013, due to exchange rate gains (SDR vs US$). 11 ANNEX 3: Extension of Closing Date TANZANIA – ZANZIBAR BASIC EDUCAION IMPROVEMENT PROJECT P102262 CREDIT Restructuring Paper 1. The Closing Date for Tanzania, Zanzibar Basic Education Improvement Project (Credit No. 42930, P102262), will be extended by four months from July 31, 2013 to November 30, 2013. 2. The Project Development Objective (PDO) of the Project is ‘To improve completion of lower secondary education with successful performance among students.’ The Project has the following two components: 1) Increase Enrolment and Improve Quality in Secondary Education through Provision of Infrastructure; and 2) Improve Quality of Education through Teacher Training, Curriculum Reform, and Provision of Learning Materials. 3. The Project (US$42 million equivalent) was approved by the Board on April 24, 2007, signed on June 25, 2007, and declared effective on January 29, 2008. The original closing date is July 31, 2013. 4. The Project has been under implementation since July 1, 2007 and overall implementation progress is Moderately Satisfactory. The project objectives continue to be achievable, and most activities are expected to be completed prior to the project closing date of July 31, 2013. 5. However, following the last Implementation Support Mission, the Government and the World Bank team believe that, while the action plan shows completion of most activities by project closing date, there is possibility of small slippages in procurement timelines (especially procurement of textbooks and completion of training programs for teachers). As a result, the Government will be requesting an extension of four months beyond the current closing date. The measure is being proposed to ensure the quality of output from the training programs is maintained. 6. An Action Plan to complete the Project has already been submitted by the Government and is found to be satisfactory. 7. This will be the first extension of the Project. 12