79522 For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS and ISN Data Country: Kyrgyz Republic CAS Year: FY07; ISN Year: FY11 CAS and ISN Period: FY07- FY13 CAS and ISN CR Review Period: FY07-CY12 Date of this review: July 10, 2013 2. Executive Summary i. This review examines the implementation of the FY07-FY10 Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) of FY07 for the Kyrgyz Republic and the CAS Progress Report (CASPR) of FY10, as well as the FY12-FY13 Interim Strategy Note (ISN) of FY11, and assesses the CAS and ISN Completion Report (CAS and ISN CR) of FY13. It covers the joint program of IBRD/IDA, IFC and MIGA. ii. The CAS objectives were organized under four pillars and mainly remained valid in the ISN. Under Pillar I, promoting economic management consistent with strong and sustained pro-poor growth, the WBG assisted in supporting macroeconomic stability and fiscal management; developing the financial sector; improving the business environment; increasing productivity in agriculture and improving market mechanisms in production and processing; addressing constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth: in particular in the road networks; and increasing efficiency of the energy sector. Under Pillar II, improving governance, effective public administration and reducing corruption, the WBG strategy was to enhance the national public financial management, increase transparency in the mining sector, and help the country conform to international practices and standards. Under Pillar III, building sustainable human and social capital, the WBG assisted in improving access and providing adequate financing for basic health; improving education quality and providing adequate financing for total and secondary education; improving targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of pension system; and increasing access to safe and clean water in rural areas and providing more efficient water utilities. Under Pillar IV, environmental sustainability and natural resources management, the WBG strategy was to improve reforestation activities; reduce exposure to humans, animals and plants of radioactive products from uranium mine tailings; and increase effectiveness of disaster monitoring warning and response system. The ISN continued to focus on the same objectives but dropped increasing efficiency of the energy sector under Pillar I; improving fiscal sustainability of pension system under Pillar III; and improving reforestation activities under Pillar IV. iii. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG assistance to the Kyrgyz Republic as moderately satisfactory concurring with the CAS and ISN CR rating. Under Pillar I, the WBG contributed to the improvement in public administration, increase in the value of transactions channeled through and processed by the National Payment System and in the number of bank accounts, and improvement in corporate governance, property rights and ability to borrow. However, efforts to ensure harmonization of technical regulations with internationally accepted standards, to reduce the number of days and documents required for import, to eliminate inspections not required by the new inspections law, to increase agricultural productivity, and to improve enabling infrastructure either didn’t succeed in meeting the CAS targets or there was no evidence for assessment. Under Pillar II, the WBG contributed to improved governance and transparency in the mining sector with Kyrgyz Republic achieving full Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Compliance status in 2011, although a transparent legal and regulatory framework has yet to be developed. There was also some improvement in the national public financial management through establishing closer links between the annual budget and Country Development Strategy (CDS) objectives, imposing better controls in budget execution, and approval and implementation CASCR/CPSCR Reviewed by: Peer Reviewed by: CASCR Review Coordinator Judy M. O’Connor Consultant, IEGCC Pablo Guerrero, Xiaolun Sun Takatoshi Kamezawa Consultant, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC Senior Evaluation Officer, IEGCC For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group of the new budget classification to meet Government Financial Statistics (GFS) 2001 requirements. However, measures to improve predictability in availability of funds for expenditure commitment and quality and timely annual financial statements were unsatisfactory. Under Pillar III, some progress was made in improving access and providing adequate financing for basic health which, however, was insufficient to achieve the CAS targets. PISA scores measuring education quality increased slightly and financing for total education fluctuated around the CAS target. But there was no information on secondary education expenditures. Results in improving targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of the pension system, and increasing access to safe and clean water in rural areas and providing more efficient water utilities were disappointing. Under Pillar IV, the WBG substantially contributed to isolation and protection of abandoned uranium mining wastes from dispersal into the environment and to the establishment of a disaster monitoring and response system, although real time landslide monitoring and effective warning systems still have to be replaced in 5 out of 10 vulnerable landslide areas. There was no evidence on improving reforestation survival rate. iv. IEG rates WBG’s performance as moderately satisfactory below the CAS and ISN CR rating of satisfactory. CAS goals were well-aligned with the Government’s strategy and its design was sufficiently flexible to allow the WBG to respond to crises as they emerged, while retaining the overall strategic thrust. But the design fell short of its own stated objectives in a few ways. As noted in the CAS and ISN CR the CAS did not adequately reflect lessons from the previous CAS (FY03-06), which had called for greater selectivity: the number of activities has increased despite efforts to collaborate with other development partners. The Results Matrix was overly ambitious, and there was no information on which to judge progress for a fifth of the 35 outcomes. Key risks were well-identified and mitigated, although there was not enough done to mitigate the risk of physical isolation: the WB left follow up on regional initiatives mostly to other development partners. Overall, as noted in the CAS and ISN CR, the coordination with development partners was satisfactory, but with considerable room for improvement in collaboration and in streamlining support. Rapid response to the 2010 crisis appears to have been exemplary and the ISN itself has reflected many of the lessons of the 2010 WDR on Conflict – including the need for a conflict filter and institutional analyses to be applied to its interventions. However, ISN’s short-term focus contrasts with the intractable nature of the key stressors such as weak governance, deep seated corruption, lack of public accountability; and historic ethnic and social tensions. v. IEG fully agrees with the CAS and ISN CR lessons and suggestions, notably the need to take into account the stress factors from the 2010 crisis, with a more analytical approach to the country’s political economy. But it is worth emphasizing that most CAS and ISN CR lessons - flexibility, selectivity, simplicity, effective partnerships and outreach with broad stakeholder group – repeat those of the FY07 CAS and ISN CR, suggesting that this should be given far greater attention by management. Finally, the WBG could have done much more to help link Kyrgyz Republic with regional markets, given its isolation. 3. Assessment of WBG Strategy Overview of CAS Relevance: Country Context 1. Overall, the Kyrgyz Republic made significant strides in growth, macro-economic management, poverty reduction, and social development during 2007-2013, although with considerable volatility in most indicators. Gross National Income per capita doubled between 2005 and 2011. In 2010, the country was adversely affected by two shocks, the global economic downturn of 2008-09 and domestic political turmoil. The President, in power since the Tulip Revolution of 2005 was ousted in April 2010 due to popular discontent with corruption and rising prices. Since December 2010 the political situation appears to have stabilized, but remains fragile. The economy recovered quickly in 2011, but faltered in 2012, due to a disruption in gold production, the country’s main revenue and export earner. The Kyrgyz For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group Republic has made good progress in achieving some Millennium Development Goals, but is not on track for others. The national poverty rate, having first fallen from 40 percent between 2006 and 2010, started to rise in 2011 and 2012, to 34 and 37 percent respectively, as a fall-out from political and social unrest, increased food prices, and slower growth. Macroeconomic policies remained prudent, with a small fiscal deficit most years, largely reflecting strong revenue performance. Inflation was volatile, driven by international price shocks and high import dependency. Remittances from the Kyrgyz Republic’s large emigrant community were unpredictable, but significant, estimated at 21 percent of GDP in 2010, one of the highest in the world. 2. There were three different government strategies during the CAS and ISN periods. The Kyrgyz Republic 2007-2010 CDS targeted poverty reduction and enhancement of living standards; health and life friendly environment; society integration; human rights and gender equality; and effective democratic management. The new coalition government formed in December 2010 prepared a one- year Plan of Actions for 2011 focusing on retaining security and governance reforms; macroeconomic policy; financial and private sector development; social sector; food and energy security; mining; post- conflict recovery; and reconstruction of the south. Finally, the Medium Term Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2012-14 aimed at increasing living standard of the population and poverty alleviation based on economic growth; improving the business environment; and developing an efficient governance system. Objectives of the WBG Strategy 3. The CAS objectives were organized under four pillars and mainly remained valid in the ISN. Under Pillar I, promoting economic management consistent with strong and sustained pro-poor growth, the WBG assisted in supporting macroeconomic stability and fiscal management; developing the financial sector; improving the business environment; increasing productivity in agriculture and improving market mechanisms in production and processing; addressing constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth: in particular in the road networks; and increasing efficiency of the energy sector. Under Pillar II, improving governance, effective public administration and reducing corruption, the WBG strategy was to enhance the national public financial management, increase transparency in the mining sector, and help the country conform to international practices and standards. Under Pillar III, building sustainable human and social capital, the WBG assisted in improving access and providing adequate financing for basic health; improving education quality and providing adequate financing for total and secondary education; improving targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of pension system; and increasing access to safe and clean water in rural areas and providing more efficient water utilities. Under Pillar IV, environmental sustainability and natural resources management, the WBG strategy was to improve reforestation activities; reduce exposure to humans, animals and plants of radioactive products from uranium mine tailings; and increase effectiveness of disaster monitoring warning and response system. The ISN continued to focus on the same objectives but dropped increasing efficiency of the energy sector under Pillar I; improving fiscal sustainability of pension system under Pillar III; and improving reforestation activities under Pillar IV. Relevance of the WBG Strategy 4. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. The WBG-supported program was well aligned with Government strategies, well integrated with the strategy of several key development partners, and remained relevant throughout the period. The CAS noted that government ownership was critical, but a lack of government ownership for energy and social protection reforms was not discovered until the ISN period. 5. Relevance of Design. The CAS design was sufficiently flexible to allow the Bank to respond to crises as they emerged, while retaining the overall strategic thrust. This was particularly useful given the volatile external environment, as well as uncertainty about levels of financing from non-traditional development partners. However, the design fell short of its own stated expectations in a few ways. As noted in the CAS and ISN CR, the CAS did not adequately reflect lessons from the previous CAS (FY03-FY06), which had called for greater selectivity, a less ambitious reform agenda, simpler project design and conditionality, and more effective use of analysis for dialogue and dissemination. The For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group Results Matrix covered 36 outcomes, and more than 50 milestones or intermediate indicators, linked to 13 CDS goals. While the CASPR and ISN pared back on some outcomes, the Results Matrix remained overly elaborate. Also, there was no information on which to assess declared CAS intentions to simplify project design and to dialogue around key analyses. The collaboration between WB and IFC in formulating the CAS was effective. While many analytical and advisory services (AAAs) helped identify key issues and options in priority areas such as trade and mining, others provided useful analytical input, but had little impact as in the area of public financial management. 6. Strength of the Results Framework. The results framework was adequate but relatively ambitious with too many outcomes and indicators, which sometimes lacked information. On the whole, there was a reasonable results chain with baselines and targets anchored in relevant and reasonably available indicators. Some CAS objectives were very broad, while the chosen indicators were quite narrow: for example supporting macroeconomic stability and fiscal management was to be measured by enhanced efficiency of public administration, public and private agreement on measures to support growth, and improved statistical capacity. Achievement of some targets would leave the objective far short of being satisfactory such as improved access to primary health care measured by the average number of visits to a family doctor per person. 7. Risk identification and Mitigation. The CAS and ISN identified key risks: political, including the risk of continuing instability and possible change in political leadership; institutional, operational, and exogenous risks, as well as risks to the WBG’s own reputation. The ISN highlighted regional risks from the Kyrgyz Republic’s position as a major conduit for smuggled heroin from Afghanistan to Europe and illicit trafficking in weapons with huge profits weakening the central power, increasing organized crime, fostering corrupt links between crime and government and religious extremism. Mitigation measures included more effective partnerships with the United Nations and Organization for Security and Co- operation in Europe on security matters, greater outreach to civil society, parliament and other interest groups, and more effective communications to help broaden ownership of reforms through wide transparent consultations and to showcase WBG’s contribution. But vested interests in energy and in the pension scheme were identified late. The challenges of geopolitical risks were identified in the ISN, but the Bank left follow-through on most regional cooperation initiatives to other development partners. Overview of CAS Implementation: Lending and Investments 8. The WB approved 15 projects during the CAS period of FY07-FY10 with a total amount of $138 million, 6 projects during FY11 with a total amount of $136 million, and 6 projects during the ISN period of FY12-13 with a total amount of $96.5 million. In addition, considerable financial support was provided through 38 trust funded projects with a total of $118 million which in some cases replaced planned IDA financing in judiciary, biodiversity, and statistical capacity building. 9. The performance of IDA portfolio deteriorated over the CAS and ISN periods from no projects out of 17 active projects at risk in 2006 to 6 out of 23 projects at risk (16.4 percent of the commitment) in 2013. However, this was lower than the average for the Europe and Central Asia Region (18.5 percent of the commitment) and the World Bank (22.7 percent of the commitment) in FY13. IEG rated 9 projects which exited during the CAS and ISN periods with only 3 projects rated as moderately unsatisfactory or lower. 10. IFC made net commitments of $41.6 million during the period from FY07 to FY13, concentrated as planned in the financial sector (86.8 percent of total investments), followed by agribusiness and forestry. While the CASPR commitment target of $25-30 million during FY09-FY10 was almost met, the ISN program fell short of its target of $20-40 million annual commitment. IEG validated IFC’s rating of successful development outcome of the project with a commercial bank, where IFC has been involved since the bank’s establishment in 2001, with follow-up financing in FY09 and FY11. 11. MIGA had one operation in the Kyrgyz Republic during the FY07-FY13 period providing an increased guarantee amount of $5.8 million in FY10 from its exposure of $0.98 million in FY04 to an For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group Austrian operator of cargo handling and storage and in-flight catering services at the Manas International Airport in Bishkek. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 12. The WB delivered 21 pieces of Economic and Sector Works (ESW) during the CAS and ISN periods mainly for economic management, the business climate, agriculture, the financial sector, health, and social protection. According to the CAS and ISN CR a lot of efforts were spent on disseminating results. In addition, the WB provided 13 Technical Assistance (TA) projects almost exclusively supporting economic management and financial services. 13. IFC supported its client microfinance organizations through IFC’s regional microfinance transformation program which helped launch a new product (leasing) and improved risk, asset-liability, and human resource management. IFC also assisted the National Bank in refining the microfinance legislation. In addition, IFC helped to find a buyer for Zalkar Bank when advising Kyrgyz’s Debt Resolution Agency. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 14. Of the large number of development partners, a smaller group effectively collaborated at the strategy level. The Asian Development Bank, Swiss Cooperation, UK Department for International Development, and United Nations Agencies worked jointly with the WBG on the FY07-FY10 Joint Country Support Strategy. Several partners co-financed the health, water, trade, governance, public financial management and agriculture projects. Non-traditional aid donors such as China, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkey also provided substantial financial support. There was a plethora of separate interventions: only the Joint Country Support Strategy partners provided some 240 separate country level interventions as listed in the CASPR in addition to more than 80 regional interventions that included the Kyrgyz Republic. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 15. There were no cases brought before the Inspection Panel during the CAS and ISN period. Overview of Achievement by Objective Pillar I: Promoting Economic Management consistent with Strong, Sustained pro-poor Growth 16. Under Pillar I, the CAS aimed to support macroeconomic stability and fiscal management, develop the financial sector, improve the business environment, increase productivity in agriculture and improve market mechanisms in production and processing, address constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth: in particular in the road networks, and increase efficiency of the energy sector. 17. Support macroeconomic stability and fiscal management. The overall CAS objective was narrowly supported by the three outcome indicators. During 2007-2008 the Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) rating for public administration improved from 2.5 to 3 meeting the CAS target and was maintained throughout. The CAS indicator to improve statistical capacity for monitoring and evaluation was achieved with the installment of a simplified CDS monitoring and evaluation system in the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade which, however, became defunct following the 2010 conflict. According to the CAS and ISN CR there was an ongoing dialogue between the Government and private sector on implementation of measures to support growth as envisaged in the CAS, but there was no supporting information. WBG’s AAAs, notably follow up on the Country Economic Memorandum (FY07), as well as Programmatic Public Expenditure Review (FY10) and Poverty Assessment (FY11), provided recommendations on critical issues such as reforms needed to deal effectively with trade barriers and reduce dependence on gold. TA was provided in FY07 and FY10 to improve budget quality. Also, the Economic Management Capacity Building Project (FY08) supported transparent, merit based, and equitable public service recruitment, and introduced public oversight of government policies and programs. IFC’s advisory services - Kyrgyzstan Business Enabling Environment (FY08), assisted in facilitating a dialogue on key measures needed to promote growth. For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group 18. Develop the financial sector. Good progress was made in increasing the value of transactions channeled through and processed by the National Payment System and in increasing the number of bank accounts with both indicators surpassing the CAS targets. There was also some evidence on increased availability of business finance measured as credit and equity to micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and expansion in leasing which, however, fell short of expected targets. To support this objective the WB conducted an FSAP Update (FY07) and follow-ups, including TA, and provided financing through the Economic Recovery Support Operation (FY12) - a single tranche Development Policy Operation, to strengthen the Central Bank’s role in supervision and temporary administration of a number of banks that had become financially distressed due to the 2010 crisis. It also helped establish the Deposit Protection Agency as an independent legal entity. IFC’s financing and advisory services focused on MSMEs, supporting seven financial intermediaries. 19. Improve the business environment. WB’s Reducing Technical Barriers for Entrepreneurship and Trade Project (FY07) supported the establishment of an independent Accreditation Center, approval of technical regulations on machine safety, upgrading of the Ministry of Health’s epidemiology laboratory, and acquisition of two laboratories for the Kyrgyz Center for Standards and Metrology. However, the CAS indicator on harmonization of technical regulations with internationally accepted standards was achieved only by 40 percent. There has been some progress in reducing the number of days and documents required for import, but the CAS target of 8 documents and 40 days has yet to be met. The state inspection agencies and business inspections were reduced in number, and a new Law on Inspections became operational at the end of 2008, but there was not enough information to assess whether all inspections not required by the new inspection law were eliminated as envisaged in the CAS. At the same time, there was an improvement in property rights and ability to borrow measured as the annual number of registered land and real estate sales, leases and mortgages supported by WB’s two Land and Real Estate Registration Projects (FY00, FY09). Also, IFC’s advisory work helped introduce best practice amendments to the law on joint stock companies (JSCs), improve investor protection, develop Corporate Governance code, and strengthen corporate governance in 26 companies. The WBG support also included the CEM Follow-up (FY09), Judicial Reform Diagnostic ESW (FY10), Private Sector Dialogue TA (FY08), and a variety of IFC advisory services. The Kyrgyz Republic was one of the IFC-selected frontier countries for direct Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) investments: IFC made two successful SME investments and contributed with advisory services to this priority area both through specific projects in Kyrgyz Republic and Central Asia region. 20. Increase productivity in agriculture and improve market mechanisms in production and processing. As noted in the CAS and ISN CR, the CAS and ISN proposed narrowly defined indicators to measure this objective which bore limited relationship to the overarching CDS goal of raising agriculture productivity and output. WB’s Second On-Farm Irrigation Project (FY07) supported the sustainability of irrigation system which was substantially improved as measured by an increase in collection rate of irrigation service fees in the ISN, but a study of several Water Users’ Associations pointed to the insufficient cost recovery of the system and ineffective use of irrigated water. Good progress was made in improving the efficiency of pastureland and animal health assisted by WB’s Agricultural Investments and Services Project (FY08). There was no information on increasing the share of agriculture production being processed as envisaged in the CAS. WBG’s assistance also included Agriculture Policy Note (FY10) and its update (FY11) ESWs. 21. Address constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth: in particular in the road networks. WBG provided support through the National Road Rehabilitation Project (FY10), however there is no information to assess the progress on this objective measured as prioritizing maintenance of 95 percent of national roads and rehabilitating the key link to Fergana Valley. 22. Increase efficiency of the energy sector. The CAS outcome indicators under this objective were not achieved. Between 2007 and 2010, power system losses fell from 40 to 28.8 percent, well above the CAS target of 14 percent, and cash collections improved from 58 to 79 percent, well below the 94 percent target. These results might have been avoided, had the WB been more aware of the sector’s political economy. In the ISN, targets for power system losses (to be reduced from 28.8 to 23 percent between 2010 and 2013), power export revenues, and power sector accountability were moved under Pillar II, but there were no data on which to judge the progress. WB’s support to the For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group energy sector included the Power and District Heating Rehabilitation Project (FY96) and Emergency Energy Assistance Project (FY09) that focused on emergency fuel and other inputs, and not on energy efficiency. IFC made a small investment in an electric power company in mid-2012. 23. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar I as moderately satisfactory. The WBG contributed to the improvement in public administration and installment of a simplified CDS monitoring and evaluation system which, however, became defunct following the 2010 conflict. There was good progress in increasing the value of transactions channeled through and processed by the National Payment System and in increasing the number of bank accounts. At the same time, the availability of business finance increased for MSMEs and in leasing although falling short of CAS targets. In the business environment there was an improvement in corporate governance, property rights and ability to borrow measured as the annual number of registered land and real estate sales, leases, and mortgages. However, efforts to ensure harmonization of technical regulations with internationally accepted standards, to reduce the number of days and documents required for import, and to eliminate inspections not required by the new inspections law either didn’t succeed in meeting the CAS targets or there was no evidence for assessment. There was no improvement in agriculture productivity and market mechanisms in production and processing although some of the narrowly defined outcome indicators were achieved. In particular, good progress was made in sustainability of irrigation system, but insufficient cost recovery and ineffective use of irrigated water remained major obstacles for the sector development. Also, the efficiency of pastureland and animal health improved, but there was no information on increasing the share of agriculture production being processed. Finally, efforts to address constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth and increase efficiency of the energy sector didn’t bring the expected results. Pillar II. Improving Governance, Effective Public Administration, and Reducing Corruption 24. Under this Pillar, the WBG support was to enhance the national public financial management, increase transparency in the mining sector and help the country conform to international practices and standards. 25. Enhance the national public financial management. There was some progress in selected Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) indicators although it fell short of the CAS and ISN targets. Slight improvements in multi-year perspective in fiscal planning, expenditure policy and budgeting led to a closer link between the annual budget and CDS objectives reflected in a better PEFA PI-12 indicator in 2009, but there was no information on which to judge progress against the ISN target. Also, the CAS indicator on improving controls in budget execution was partially achieved due to increased effectiveness of internal controls for non-salary expenditure to D+ from D measured as PEFA PI-20. The new budget classification to meet requirements of GFS 2001 was approved and implemented starting in 2008. There was no information on the ISN indicator on predictability in availability of funds for expenditure commitment, while the CAS indicator on quality and timely annual financial statements deteriorated. At the same time, the CAS and ISN CR provided no evidence to assess the progress on common agreement between authorities and donors on future steps and benchmarks for PFM reforms as planned in the ISN. The WB supported this objective through two AAAs: the Programmatic Public Expenditure Review TA (FY10) and Country Financial Accountability Assessment/Country Procurement Assessment Review ESW (FY07). In addition, the WB delivered the Governance TA Project (FY03), Capacity Building in Public Financial Management Project (FY10), and Economic Recovery Support Operation (FY12) focusing on implementation of the treasury management information system, accountability, and internal management of the budget process among other issues. 26. Increase transparency in the mining sector and help the country conform to international practices and standards. WB helped to develop and enact a new mining law, improve the fiscal regime for subsoil taxation and progressive land tax, promote institutional reforms, including privatization of non-state activities and separation of regulatory and operational functions, however the CAS outcome on providing more transparent legal and regulatory framework for the mining sector has yet to be met. Governance and transparency improved as Kyrgyz Republic achieved full EITI Compliance status in 2011, with the number of reporting companies increasing from 26 to 57 between 2008 and 2012 which accounted for almost 95 percent of extractive industry revenues. WBG supported For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group this objective through Mining Governance and Transparency Dialogue ESW (FY08) to provide advice and good practices on revisions in the mining code. 27. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar II as moderately satisfactory. The WBG contributed to improved governance and transparency in the mining sector with Kyrgyz Republic achieving full EITI Compliance status in 2011, although a transparent legal and regulatory framework has yet to be developed. There was some improvement in national public financial management through establishing closer links between the annual budget and CDS objectives, imposing better controls in budget execution, and approval and implementation of the new budget classification to meet GFS 2001 requirements. However, efforts to improve predictability in availability of funds for expenditure commitment and quality and timely annual financial statements failed to meet the CAS targets. Pillar III: Building Sustainable Human and Social Capital 28. Under Pillar III the WBG support was to improve access and provide adequate financing for basic health; improve education quality and provide adequate financing for total and secondary education; improve targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of pension system; and increase access to safe and clean water in rural areas and provide more efficient water utilities. 29. Improve access and provide adequate financing for basic health. The number of family doctor visits per citizen improved from 2.2 to 2.4 between 2006 and 2010 but fell short of the CAS target of 3. There were mixed results on the adequate financing of basic health as measured by basic health’s share of total expenditures. The CAS and ISN CR reports that the CAS target of 13 percent share in the state budget was achieved by 2010 and improved both geographically and functionally. However, according to the World Development Indicators, health accounted for only 11.6 percent of the 2011 government budget, while overall public spending on health was unchanged at 3 percent of GDP through 2008 increasing to 4 percent in 2010-2011. The WBG delivered a multi-donor financed Health and Social Protection Project jointly with a number of donors (DfID, Kfw, SDC, SIDA) which contributed to better access to services, reduced informal payments by patients, and improved efficiency of resource allocation. 30. Improve education quality and provide adequate financing for total and secondary education. Total education spending levels between 2007 and 2010 fluctuated around the CAS target of 6 percent of GDP, but there was no information on secondary education expenditures. Education quality remained nearly the same: while there was a slight improvement between the 2006 and 2009 rounds of the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), the Kyrgyz Republic ranked last in math, science and reading among nations that participated. WBG’s AAAs included Education IFA (FY08) and Programmatic Public Expenditure Reviews (FY10). 31. Improve targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of pension system. There was no evidence of improvement in targeting of social benefits measured as an increase in the share of extreme poor households receiving guaranteed minimum income benefit in the CAS. On the contrary, the only social assistance program targeted to the poorest families actually shrank between 2007 and 2012. The CAS and ISN CR provides no information on the improvement of fiscal sustainability of the pension system envisaged in the CAS and consequently dropped in the ISN. Under the Health and Social Protection Additional Financing Project (FY11) the WBG helped to design, develop, and roll out the National Registry of social assistance benefit recipients. WBG’s assistance also included two AAAs on social protection, but without much evidence of success until now: Social Protection Strategy (FY09) and Programmatic Public Expenditure Review TA (FY10). In addition, WBG delivered the Economic Management Capacity Building Project (FY08) and Economic Recovery Development Policy Operation (FY12) supporting a reduction in the number of categorical benefits among other reforms. 32. Increase access to safe and clean water in rural areas and provide more efficient water utilities. According to the CAS and ISN CR there was no information available on the access to safe and clean water in rural areas. The CAS outcome indicator to increase the number of financially viable water utilities as a measurement of their efficiency didn’t materialize, but the operational efficiency and energy consumption improved. Specifically, three-fourth of 23 municipalities and utilities supported by For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group WBG’s Small Towns Infrastructure and Capacity Building Project (FY09) achieved or exceeded energy consumption targets and 55 percent improved or achieved operational efficiency targets. WBG’s assistance also included Programmatic Public Expenditure Review TA (FY10) and Local Governance TA (FY07) to improve Local Government’s financial management and service delivery together with a range of investment projects. 33. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar III as moderately unsatisfactory. Some progress was made in improving access and providing adequate financing for basic health which, however, was insufficient to achieve the CAS targets. PISA scores measuring education quality increased slightly and financing for total education fluctuated around the CAS target. But there was no information on secondary education expenditures. Results in improving targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of the pension system, and increasing access to safe and clean water in rural areas and providing more efficient water utilities were disappointing. Pillar IV. Environmental Sustainability and Natural Resource Management 34. Under Pillar IV the WBG aimed to improve reforestation activities; reduce exposure to humans, animals and plants of radioactive products from uranium mine tailings; and increase effectiveness of disaster monitoring warning and response system. 35. Improve reforestation activities. The only CAS indicator to measure this objective which was subsequently removed from the ISN was to improve the reforestation survival rate. However, there was no information available to assess progress. WBG’s AAA included Promoting Carbon Finance in Kyrgyzstan TA (FY07). Two trust funded projects (FY08) supported biodiversity in the Tien Shan Ecosystem, but the regional Tien-Shan Biodiversity Project was dropped due to failure of both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyz Republic to meet effectiveness conditions. 36. Reduce exposure to humans, animals and plants of radioactive products from uranium mine tailings. The WBG contributed to isolating and protecting abandoned uranium mining wastes from dispersal into the environment through the Disaster Hazard Mitigation Project (FY04) and its Additional Financing (FY11) and two Trust Fund Projects (FY05, FY06). According to the CAS and ISN CR, by the end of 2010 relocation of radioactive uranium tailings to safe repositories was about 90 percent complete. 37. Increase effectiveness of disaster monitoring warning and response system. While a disaster hazard monitoring system was in place by March of 2012 with a response time of less than 1 day, the systems at half of the 10 vulnerable landslide areas were vandalized during the political disturbances of 2010 and needed to be replaced. The WBG provided Geohazards and Infrastructure TA (FY09) in addition to investment and trust funded projects. 38. IEG rates the outcome of WBG assistance under Pillar IV as moderately satisfactory. The WBG substantially contributed to isolation and protection of abandoned uranium mining wastes from dispersal into the environment and establishment of disaster monitoring and response system, although real time landslide monitoring and effective warning systems still have to be replaced in 5 out of 10 vulnerable landslide areas. There was no evidence on improving the reforestation survival rate. Objectives IEG Rating Pillar I: Promoting Economic Management Consistent Moderately Satisfactory with Strong and Sustained Prop-Poor Growth Pillar II: Improving Governance, Effective Public Moderately Satisfactory Administration, and Reducing Corruption Pillar III: Building Sustainable Human and Social Capital Moderately Unsatisfactory Pillar IV: Environmental Sustainability and Natural Moderately Satisfactory Resources Management For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group 4. Overall IEG Assessment CAS and ISN CR Rating IEG Rating Overall Outcome: Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall outcome: 39. IEG rates the overall outcome of WBG assistance to the Kyrgyz Republic as moderately satisfactory concurring with the CAS and ISN CR rating. Under Pillar I, the WBG contributed to the improvement in public administration, increase in the value of transactions channeled through and processed by the National Payment System and in the number of bank accounts, and improvement in corporate governance, property rights and ability to borrow. However, efforts to ensure harmonization of technical regulations with internationally accepted standards, to reduce the number of days and documents required for import, to eliminate inspections not required by the new inspections law, to increase agricultural productivity, and to improve enabling infrastructure either didn’t succeed in meeting the CAS targets or there was no evidence for assessment. Under Pillar II, the WBG contributed to improved governance and transparency in the mining sector with Kyrgyz Republic achieving full Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) Compliance status in 2011, although a transparent legal and regulatory framework has yet to be developed. There was also some improvement in the national public financial management through establishing closer links between the annual budget and Country Development Strategy (CDS) objectives, imposing better controls in budget execution, and approval and implementation of the new budget classification to meet Government Financial Statistics (GFS) 2001 requirements. However, measures to improve predictability in availability of funds for expenditure commitment and quality and timely annual financial statements were unsatisfactory. Under Pillar III, some progress was made in improving access and providing adequate financing for basic health which, however, was insufficient to achieve the CAS targets. PISA scores measuring education quality increased slightly and financing for total education fluctuated around the CAS target. But there was no information on secondary education expenditures. Results in improving targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of the pension system, and increasing access to safe and clean water in rural areas and providing more efficient water utilities were disappointing. Under Pillar IV, the WBG substantially contributed to isolation and protection of abandoned uranium mining wastes from dispersal into the environment and to the establishment of a disaster monitoring and response system, although real time landslide monitoring and effective warning systems still have to be replaced in 5 out of 10 vulnerable landslide areas. There was no evidence on improving reforestation survival rate. WBG Performance: 40. IEG rates WBG’s performance as moderately satisfactory below the CAS and ISN CR rating of satisfactory. CAS goals were well-aligned with the Government’s strategy and its design was sufficiently flexible to allow the WBG to respond to crises as they emerged, while retaining the overall strategic thrust. But the design fell short of its own stated objectives in a few ways. As noted in the CAS and ISN CR the CAS did not adequately reflect lessons from the previous CAS (FY03-06), which had called for greater selectivity: the number of activities has increased despite efforts to collaborate with other development partners. The Results Matrix was overly ambitious, and there was no information on which to judge progress for a fifth of the 35 outcomes. Key risks were well-identified and mitigated, although there was not enough done to mitigate the risk of physical isolation: the WB left follow up on regional initiatives mostly to other development partners. Overall, as noted in the CAS and ISN CR, the coordination with development partners was satisfactory, but with considerable room for improvement in collaboration and in streamlining support. Rapid response to the 2010 crisis appears to have been exemplary and the ISN itself has reflected many of the lessons of the 2010 WDR on Conflict - including the need for a conflict filter and institutional analyses to be applied to its interventions. However, ISN’s short-term focus contrasts with the intractable nature of the key stressors such as weak governance, deep seated corruption, lack of public accountability; and historic ethnic and social tensions. For Official Use Only CAS and ISN CR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group 5. Assessment of CAS and ISN Completion Report 41. Overall, the CAS and ISN CR was comprehensive and provided fair discussion on the achievement of outcomes rather than outputs or indicators. However, it did not pick up on minor changes introduced to the Results Matrix at the time of the CASPR, and did not always assess progress at the end of the CAS period separately, even when information was available. Also, the evidence on many outcome indicators was lacking too often. 6. Findings and Lessons 42. IEG fully agrees with the CAS and ISN CR lessons and suggestions, notably the need to take into account the stress factors from the 2010 crisis, with a more analytical approach to the country’s political economy. But it is worth emphasizing that most CAS and ISN CR lessons - flexibility, selectivity, simplicity, effective partnerships and outreach with broad stakeholder group – repeat those of the FY07 CAS and ISN CR, suggesting that this should be given far greater attention by management. Finally, the WBG could have done much more to help link Kyrgyz Republic with regional markets, given its isolation. Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CAS and ISN Objectives Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Financing for Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 3: Actual Analytical and Advisory Work for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07 to Present Annex Table 4: Active Trusts Funds in FY07-Present (in US$ million) for Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-FY13 Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Kyrgyz Republic Comparators, FY07-FY13 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Kyrgyz Republic and Comparators FY06-Present Annex Table 8: Net Disbursements and Charges Report for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-12 Annex Table 9: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Kyrgyz Republic Annex Table 10: Economic and Social Indicators for Kyrgyz Republic 2006-2011 Annex Table 11: List of IFC investment operations in Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-13 (In thousand US$) Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory services operations approved in FY07-13 Annex Table 13: Millennium Development Goals Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary Achievements of CAS and ISN Objectives Pillar I: Promoting Economic Management Consistent Actual Results (as of current month/year) Comments With Strong and Sustained Pro-Poor Growth 1. Support macroeconomic stability and fiscal management Enhanced efficiency of public Target rating of 3 achieved on CPIA indicator 15 Source : 2011 and 2012 administration, as measured by CPIA in 2010 and maintained in 2011 and 2012: CPIA. Major Outcome indicator 15: Quality of Public Administration. Measures Baseline: 2.5 (2006) Target: 3.0 (2010) Sequence of measures to support No information available. According to CAS and growth agreed between the Government ISN CR this is on-going. and private sector is under implementation Improved statistical capacity for A simplified Country Development Strategy Source: CAS and ISN CR. Monitoring and Evaluation (CDS) monitoring and evaluation system was set up in Ministry of Economic Development & Trade. However, post-2010 conflict sustainability unclear. 2. Develop the financial sector Increased total value of transactions Value of transactions processed by national Source: Payments and channeled through and processed by payments system totaled over 547,495 million Banking System the National payments system: soms, as of 2011. Modernization Project. Baseline: 109,000 (2005) ICR. Target: 180,000 (2008) Increase in total number of bank Estimated number of bank accounts totaled over Source: CAS and ISN CR. accounts: 750,000. Baseline: 200,000 (2005) Target: 400,000 (2008) Increased availability of business IFC provided $8.4 million in credit and equity to Source : CASPR Major Outcome finance local commercial banks (KICB, Measures Microfinance expansion: Kazcommertsbank, Bai Tushum) for MSMEs New National Bank Baseline: Som 4.8 bln (2007) lending. regulation on mortgage Target micro-finance: Som 8.0 New leasing transactions grew from $0.4million lending standardization bln.(2010) in 2002 to $1.7million in 2008 was approved. Standard Mortgage lending Azerbaijan-Central Asia Leasing Facility documentation developed (advisory services facilitated $5million and for use by local banks. supported $38million investments into financial IFC engagement helped intermediaries from 2005 to 2008. eliminate time gaps between title transfer and mortgage registration. 3. Improve business environment Technical regulations harmonized with As of early 2013, more than 40% of national Source : World Bank internationally accepted standards standards were harmonized with international Group-Kyrgyz Republic standards. Partnership, Program Snapshot April 2013. Reduction in costs of transactions Doing Business database shows that numbers of Source: Doing Business. required for import and export documents required to import and export are 10 Number of days and documents and 8 respectively. required for imports (Doing Business): Major Outcome Baseline: 18 docs / 127 days (2006) Days needed to import and export remained Measures Target: 8 docs / 40 days (2010) below target, (Export 63 days and Import 72 days). Eliminate inspections not consistent with The law of the Kyrgyz Republic “on procedure Source : CAS and ISN the new law on inspections for conducting inspections of businesses was CR. passed on May 25, 2007 reducing inspection entities by 30%. The number of business inspections decreased from 24.4 thousand in 2011 to 13.5 thousand in Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 16 Independent Evaluation Group 2012. The time small businesses spend on inspections also went down from 30 days to 5 days. Improved Corporate Governance in IFC Corporate Governance project helped banking and JSCs synchronize the Law on JSC with the Law on Banks, which was more advanced as regards to corporate governance provisions; develop Corporate Governance code, which was adopted in 2012; develop corporate governance provisions for the new Banking Code. Survey of IFC client companies shows that 19 companies have improved their corporate governance practices, which helped facilitate financing of about $7.2 million. In addition, 7 companies reported better performance as a result of adopted corporate governance improvements (e.g. improvements in productivity, loan terms, valuations, etc.) Improved property rights and ability of 2.82 million land and real estate units had been Source: CAS and ISN CR. landowners to borrow registered in the Kyrgyz Land Information Number of registered land and real System by mid-2012 (compared to the 2007 estate sales, leases, and mortgages in baseline of 2.4 million). Number of registered one year: mortgage transactions and registered sales are Baseline: 88,000 (2006) respectively 30% and 12% higher than the 2007 Target: 120,000 (2010) baseline. 4. Increase productivity in agriculture and improve market mechanisms in production and processing Improved sustainability of irrigation While 85 Water Users’ Associations (WUAs), or Source: CAS and ISN CR. system 27% of 320 WUAs nationwide, have collection Collection rate of irrigation service fees: rates of 90% or more, a study of 4 WUAS Baseline: 80% (2006) indicated that fees cover only 1/4-1/3 of amount Target: 95% (2010) needed to maintain system properly and that irrigation water was not being used effectively, due to inadequate measuring tools and farmers’ ignorance of crops’ water requirements. Improved efficiency of land use for No information available Source: CAS and ISN CR. pastures Percentage of pasture land transferred By 2011, 245 Pasture to Aiyl Okmotus and local pasture user Users’ Unions, or 54% of associations: 454 unions nationwide, Major Outcome Baseline: 25% (2006) were operational and Measures Target: 40% (2010) about 580 micro-projects had been implemented. Improved animal health Initial results of nationwide rollout of brucellosis Source : CAS and ISN Reduction in incidence of brucellosis in control program indicate greater than 50% CR. humans (transferred from animals): reduction in human cases in targeted Program expanded to Baseline: 75-150/100,000 communities. include 5 additional Target: 35-75/100,000 (50% reduction) diseases including 3 zoonoses (rabies, anthrax, and echinococcosis). Share of agricultural production being No information available. Source : CAS and ISN processed (in country): CR. Baseline: 10.5% (2005) Target: 12.5% (2010) 5. Address constraints in the enabling infrastructure for growth: in particular in the road networks Maintenance of strategic international No information available. Source : CAS and ISN roads is planned and managed CR. Major Outcome objectively incorporating economic Measures priorities Target - maintenance of 95% of Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group national roads prioritized by end 2010 Rehabilitation of key link to Fergana Valley 6. Increase efficiency of the energy sector. Reduce electricity losses and increase System losses remained about 40% and Source: CAS and ISN CR. cash collection: unchanged from baseline during end of 2007. Major Outcome Baseline: 40% and 58.3% (2006) Cash collections to billing ratio improved to 79% Measures Target: 14% and 94.3% (2010) (compared to industry norm of 95-98%). Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 18 Independent Evaluation Group Pillar II: Improving Governance, Effective Public Actual Results(as of current month/year) Comments Administration, And Reducing Corruption 1. Enhance the national public financial management Predictability in availability of funds, as PEFA P1-16 -Predictability in the availability of Source: PEFA measured by PEFA indicator P1-16: funds for commitment of expenditures grade Assessment 2009. Baseline: D (2006) remains D for 2009. Target: B (2010) Common agreement between No information available. authorities and Donors on future steps and benchmarks for PFM Reform Closer link between annual budgets and PEFA indicator shows a grade of C+. Source: PEFA CDS objectives, as measured by Public Assessment 2009. Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) indicator P1-12: Major Outcome Baseline: D+ (2006) Measures Target: B+ (2010) Quality and timely annual financial PEFA P1-25 - Quality and timeliness of annual Source: PEFA statements are produced financial statements grade of D+. Assessment 2009. PEFA Indicator PI-25: Baseline: C (2006) Target: B+ (2010) Improved controls in budget execution PI 20: Effectiveness of internal controls for non- Source: PEFA PEFA Indicator PI-20: salary expenditure shows a grade of D+. Assessment 2009. Baseline: D (2006) Target: C+ (2010) Source : CASPR. Implement a new budget classification to Budget classification approved and implemented meet GFS 2001 requirements in 2008. 2. Increase transparency in the mining sector and help the country conform to international practices and standards More transparent legal and regulatory No information available. CAS and ISN CR states framework for the mining sector is in that this is work in place progress. Major Outcome Improved governance and Number of reporting companies increased from Source: CAS and ISN Measures transparency in the mining sector annual 26 in 2008 to 57 in 2012, accounting for almost CR. publication of EITI data 95% of extractive industry revenues. Kyrgyzstan achieved full EITI Compliance status on March 1, 2011. Pillar III: Building Sustainable Human And Social Capital Actual Results(as of current month/year) Comments 1. Improve access and provide adequate financing of basic health Number of visits to Family Group Average number of visits to a family doctor had Source : CAS and ISN Practice per citizen: increased to 2.4 per person annually, which is CR. Baseline: 2.2 more than 2006 baseline but short of the 2010 Target: 3.0 target. Adequate financing of basic health as According to Health SWAp, 2010 target was Source : WDI Major Outcome share of total expenditure: achieved, although, according to WDI, health Public Health Measures Baseline: 10.4% accounted for only 11%. expenditure (% of GDP) Target: 13% increased to 4% as of 2010 and 2011. Source: CAS and ISN CR. Public spending on Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Pillar III: Building Sustainable Human And Social Capital Actual Results(as of current month/year) Comments health overall was unchanged at 3% of GDP through 2010 (WDI). Primary health care accounted for 38% of public expenditure on health, up from 29% in 2005. 2. Improve education quality and provide adequate resources for total and secondary education Public financing as % GDP: Total public spending on education as percent of Source: WDI. Baseline: 4.4 (total) ,2.2% secondary GDP are as follows, 6.47 in 2007, 5.94 in 2008, (2005) 6.23 in 2009 and 5.82 in 2010. Target: 6 and 3.5% (2010) Major PISA scores: Kyrgyzstan’s PISA scores in 2009 averaging 325 Source: CAS and ISN Outcome Baseline: PISA 2006 results (reading—314, science—331, math—330) were CR. Measures expected later this year (2007) slightly better than the 2006 PISA baseline Target: Kyrgyz Republic is participating in averaging 306 (reading—285, science—311, PISA 2009, so the target will be set based math—322), they were the worst in Europe and on the results from PISA 2006 and Central Asia and significantly lower even than monitored using PISA 2009 results Kazakhstan’s which averaged 398. 3. Improve targeting of social benefits and fiscal sustainability of pension system Share of extreme poor households No information available. Source: CAS and ISN receiving guaranteed minimum income CR. Major benefit(UMB): Outcome Baseline: 30% (2006) Measures Target: 50% (2010) Long term projection of NPV of expected No information available Source: CAS and ISN net receipts of pension system is positive CR. 4. Increase access to safe and clean water in rural areas and provide more efficient water utilities Increase percentage of population with No information available. Source: CAS and ISN access to clean drinking water in rural CR. areas: It is difficult to assess access to water and its Baseline: 50% (2006) quality in rural areas. In 2008, it was estimated Target: 75% (2010) that about 66 percent of the rural population had access to clean, potable water. Meanwhile, the Major pace at which rural water supply schemes are Outcome being rehabilitated does not keep up with their Measures deterioration and, until recently, the government has not given priority to these services Increase number of financially viable The financial viability of utilities and Source: CAS and ISN water utilities: municipalities remains weak. CR. Baseline: 0 (2006) Target: 12 (2010) Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group Pillar IV: Environmental Sustainability And Natural Resources Management Actual Results(as of current month/year) Comments 1. Improve reforestation activities Major Reforestation survival rate: No information available. Source: CAS and ISN Outcome Baseline: 10% (2006) CR. Measures Target: 50% (2010) 2. Reduce exposure to humans, animals and plants of radioactive products from uranium mine tailings Major Abandon uranium mining wastes isolated Relocation of radioactive uranium tailings to safe Source: CAS and ISN Outcome and protected from dispersal into the repositories was about 90% complete. CR. Measures environment. 3. Increase effectiveness of disaster hazard monitoring warning and response system Disaster monitoring and response system By end March 2012, disaster hazard monitoring Source: CAS and ISN established and effectively administered. warning and response system was in place, with CR. Major response time of less than 1 day. Outcome Measures Real time landslide monitoring and Monitoring and warning systems in 5 of 10 Source: CAS and ISN effective warning system established. vulnerable landslide areas vandalized during CR. 2010 political disturbances need to be replaced. Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Financing for Kyrgyz Republic Proposed Approval Proposed Approved Outcome Proj ID Project Name FY FY Amount Amount Rating Programmed and Unprogrammed Under CAS FY07-10 $ millions $ millions P087811 Reduced Tech Barriers for Enterpr & Trade 2007 2007 5 5 LIR: MS P098949 Village Investment Project (VIP) II 2007 2007 15 15 LIR: S P096409 On-Farm Irrigation Project (OIP) II 2007 2007 16 16 LIR: MS P104706 Strengthening National Statistical System 2008 Dropped 1 BISHKEK AND OSH URBAN P104994 2008 2008 15 12 LIR: S INFRASTRUCTURE Agricultural Investments & Services Project P096993 2008 2008 10 9 LIR: MS (AISP) P112142 HEALTH & SOC PROTECTION AF 2008 2008 6 LIR: MS P112186 AISP – Additional Financing (AF) 2008 2008 4 LIR: MS P102403 Regional Biodiveristy 2008 Dropped 2 P108525 Economic Management Capacity Building 2008 2009 4 3 LIR: MS P108178 Land and Real Estate Registration II 2008 2009 6 6 LIR: MS P101392 EMERG ENERGY ASSISTANCE 2008 2009 11 11 LIR: S P110267 Rural Water Supply & Sanitation II 2009 2009 10 10 LIR: MU P115460 SMALL TOWN INFRA & CAP BLDG. AF 2009 2009 4 4 LIR: MS P115524 VIP II AF 2009 2010 7 8 LIR: S P107608 NATL. ROAD REHAB (Osh-Batken-Isfana) 2009 2010 20 25 LIR: S P119227 EEAP -Emer. Energy Assist. Proj - AF 2010 2010 2 4 LIR: S Programmatic Lending Operation 2010 Dropped Judicial Reform Project 2010 Dropped P113350 Education Reform Sector Reform 2010 2013 17 LIR: S Total 138 Unprogrammed Financing FY11 P123044 Emergency Recovery 2011 2011 70 70 LIR: MS NATL. ROAD REHAB (Osh-Batken-Isfana) P123291 2011 2011 10 10 LIR: S AF** P126606 National Road Rehabilitation (OBI) AF** 2011 2011 16 16 LIR: S P112775 Disaster Hazard Mitigation AF 2011 2011 1 1 LIR: MS P125470 Health & Social Protection AF2 2011 2011 24 24 LIR: MS P126390 On-Farm Irrigation (OIR) II AF 2011 2011 15 15 LIR: MS Total 136 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group Programmed and Unprogrammed Financing under ISN FY12-FY13 P125425 Economic Recovery DPO 2012 2012 30 30 LIR: S P125689 Financial Sector Development Project 2012 2012 13 13 LIR: MU P118838 Agricultural Productivity Assistance*** 2012 LIR: MU P120435 Health Results Based Financing*** 2012 LIR: S P122811 BISHKEK & OSH URBAN AF 2012 2012 16 16 LIR: S P130667 VIP II AF II 2013 2013 4 4 LIR: S P126278 Health & Social Protection II 2013 2013 17 17 P113350 Education Reform SWAp 2013 2013 16.5 16.5 P117687 DPO 2013 Dropped 30 Total 96.5 Approval Closing Proposed Approved Outcome On-Going Projects FY FY Amount Amount Rating P008519 Power & District Heating Rehabilitation Project 1996 2008 20 IEG: MU P040721 Agriculture Support Services Project (ASSP) 1998 2008 15 IEG: MS P049723 On-Farm Irrigation 2000 2008 20 IEG: MS P049719 Land Registration 2000 2009 9 IEG: HS P069814 CONSLD TA 2000 2010 5 IEG: U P036977 RURAL WS & SAN 2002 2009 15 IEG: MS P071061 GOV SAC 2003 2008 20 IEG: MU P071063 GOV TA 2003 2014 8 LIR: MU P073973 VIP 2004 2009 15 IEG: HS P074881 KG Pymnt/Bank Syst Modernization 2004 2013 9 LIR: MS P083235 Disaster Hazard Mitigation 2004 2013 7 LIR: MS P078976 Rural Education Project 2005 2011 15 IEG: S P049724 Agribusiness and Marketing 2005 2013 8 LIR: S P083377 SMALL TOWNS INFRA & CAP BLDG 2005 2012 15 LIR: MS P084977 Health and Social Protection 2006 2014 15 LIR: MS P088671 Water Management Improvement 2006 2014 19 LIR: U P099453 Avian Flu (AICHPPCP) 2006 2012 4 LIR: S Total 219 P079112 PRSG (dropped) Dropped 15 P083410 Energy (dropped) Dropped 15 P126275 Programmatic Development Policy Op 3 Dropped 30 Total 60 * LIR: Latest internal rating. U: Unsatisfactory. MU: Moderately Unsatisfactory. MS: Moderately Satisfactory. S: Satisfactory. HS: Highly Satisfactory. **P123291 and P126606 are treated as one in the CAS and ISN CR. *** P118838 and P120435 have been replace by Trust Funded Operation Source: Kyrgyz CAS, CASPR, ISN and WB Business Warehouse Table 2a.1, 2a.4 and 2a.7 as of 04/24/2013 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Analytical and Advisory Work for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07 to Present Proj ID Economic and Sector Work Fiscal year Output Type P089021 Urban Slums FY07 Report P101354 FSAP Kyrgyz Republic Update FY07 Report P101593 Poverty Assessment FY07 Report P101888 CFAA - CPAR UPDATE FY07 Report P102594 Kyrgyz-Mining Gov and Transparency Dial FY08 Report P107784 Social Protection Strategy FY08 Policy Note P107945 EDUCATION IFA - KG FY08 Report P108303 KG- ROSC FY08 Report P113827 Social Protection 2 FY09 Report P107315 Judicial Reform Diagnostic FY10 Report P110062 Agriculture Policy Note FY10 Policy Note P111113 FY10-AG POLICY UPDATE FY10 Policy Note P111458 Kyrgyz Republic - ICR ROSC UPDATE FY10 Report P116716 GCMCG: Kyrgyzstan Country Assessment FY10 Report P117685 Poverty Assessment FY11 Report P122088 Joint Economic Assessment FY11 Report P122792 FY11- AG POLICY UPDATE FY11 Report P126535 MTDS - Kyrgyz Republic FY12 Report P126845 Kyrgyzstan Conflict/Analysis Filter FY12 Policy Note P128989 Gender Assessment FY12 Report P101613 Poverty Analysis Program FY13 Report Proj ID Technical Assistance Fiscal year Output Type P088274 Local Governance TA FY07 Institutional Development Plan P096416 Promoting Carbon Finance in Kyrgyzstan FY07 Knowledge-Sharing Forum P101681 PROG PER TA FY07 "How-To" Guidance P102648 KYRGYZ FSAP Follow Up TA FY07 Client Document Review P090814 PRIV SECT DIALG/TA FY08 "How-To" Guidance P105463 FIRST #334: Privatization of KAFC FY08 "How-To" Guidance P107283 Kyrgyz PPER Update FY08 "How-To" Guidance P107374 FIRST #642: Modernization of Postal System FY08 "How-To" Guidance P108088 FSAP Follow-Up TA II FY08 "How-To" Guidance P102098 CEM Follow up FY09 Institutional Development Plan P110529 Geo Hazards & Infrastructure (GFDRR) FY09 Client Document Review P112514 FSAP FOLLOW-UP TA III FY09 Client Document Review P107874 Programmatic PER FY10 "How-To" Guidance P116184 FIRST #8106: Pre-Privatization Advice FY10 "How-To" Guidance P117649 Financial Sector Monitoring FY10 Client Document Review P122647 KG FSD Policy Dialogue FY11 "How-To" Guidance P124424 FIRST KG #10059 STRENG BANK SPN & RESOLUN FY11 "How-To" Guidance P126908 KG: Prep. of a New Stat. Master Plan FY13 Institutional Development Plan Source: BW Table 1.4 ESW/TA Deliveries & Pipeline by Fiscal Year as of 05/09/2013 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Active Trust Funds in FY07-FY13 (in US$ million) for Kyrgyz Republic Project Approval Closing Approved Project TF ID FY FY Amount P079112 Poverty Reduction Support Grant (PRSG) TF 53123 2004 2007 705,346 P083625 Inst. Strengthening thru Support to National Procurement Center in Bishkek IDF Grant TF 52468 2004 2008 346,000 P086990 Strengthening Org Structure & Statistics Cap. of Natl Statistics System Partnership TF 51986 2004 2006 279,600 P088829 Building Capacity in Governance & Revenue Mgmnt in Natural Resources IDF Grant TF 53432 2004 2008 310,000 P049724 Agribusiness & Marketing Project TF 53554 2005 2013 4,750,000 P050719 Kyrgyz Urban Transport Project TF 53730 2005 2006 215,600 P083235 Disaster Hazard Mitigation Project TF 53437 2005 2010 1,950,000 P084977 Health & Social Protection Project TF 54600 2005 2012 39,545,561 P088671 Water Management Improvement Project (WMIP) TF 54599 2005 2014 4,752,400 P090409 Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper 2 TF 56357 2006 2009 450,000 P095206 KG - DISASTER HAZARD MSP TF 55171 2006 2012 1,000,000 P096719 Institutional Capacity Enhancement for Public Expenditure Management IDF Grant TF 55566 2006 2009 315,000 P099453 Avian Influenza Control & Human Pandemic Preparedness & Response Project TF 56157 2006 2011 2,150,000 P099653 Local Government Cap. Bldg Grant to Implement Intergovernmental Fiscal Reforms TF 56352 2006 2009 384,000 P074881 Payments & Banking System Modernization Project TF 56725 2007 2009 330,000 P078942 Health Sector M&E Capacity Building IDF TF 57893 2007 2010 130,000 P098949 Second Village Investment Project TF 90072 2007 2012 13,622,463 P106451 Education for All Fast Track Initiative Catalytic Fund Grant TF 90141 2007 2010 9,000,000 P108183 Cane Reed: 19th Century Idea, 21st Century Solution TF 57171 2007 2008 116,389 P087811 Reducing Technical Barriers for Entrepreneurship and Trade TF 90641 2008 2012 299,600 P102403 Tien-Shan Biodiversity TF 91334 2008 2012 626,120 P104670 Tien-Shan Ecosystem Development Project TF 91930 2008 2010 50,000 P104994 Bishkek and Osh Urban Infrastructure Project TF 90315 2008 2008 440,000 P105837 IDF-Capacity Building for Public Sector Auditing TF 90667 2008 2012 370,000 P098453 Kyrgyz Republic-Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative TF 90545 2009 2011 265,725 P104706 Strengthening the National Statistical System of Kyrgyz Republic TF 91817 2009 2011 300,000 P112723 Congress of Women of the Kyrgyz Republic (CWKR) TF 92990 2009 2010 50,000 P112713 Capacity Building in Public Financial Management TF 95472 2010 2013 7,491,433 P120264 Introduction of Quality Management Systems in the Roads Sector TF 95989 2010 2014 480,000 P118423 Fast Track Initiative Catalytic Grant Fund -2 TF 98844 2011 2013 6,000,000 P120118 Kyrgyz Republic EU Food Facility Support to Animal Health and Production TF 96043 2011 2012 9,396,387 P118838 Agricultural Productivity Assistance Project TF 99880 2012 2015 6,850,000 P126736 Kyrgyz Republic - EITI Post Compliance I TF 99968 2012 2013 200,000 P126819 KG Coordination of Emergency Situations TF 99788 2012 2013 1,450,000 P126873 Building Demand-side Capacity for Effective Local Governance TF 10208 2012 2015 1,614,156 P110267 Second Rural Water Supply & Sanitation TF 13105 2013 2014 1,383,580 P120435 Kyrgyz Health Results Based Financing TF 99792 2013 2014 500,000 P131322 Support to UNCCD NAP alignment and reporting process TF 12759 2013 2014 150,000 Total 118,269,360 Source: World Bank Client Connection as of May15, 2013 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-FY13 Approval IEG Risk to DO Total Exit FY Proj ID Project Name IEG Outcome FY Rating Evaluated ($M) 2008 P008519 Power & Dist Heat Rehab 1996 Moderately Unsatisfactory High 34.6 2008 P040721 ASSP 1998 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 13.4 2008 P049723 On-Farm Irrigation 2000 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 21.9 2008 P071061 GOV SAC 2003 Moderately Unsatisfactory High 22.7 2008 P073973 VIP 2004 Highly Satisfactory Significant 15.7 2009 P036977 Rural WS & San 2002 Moderately Satisfactory Significant 17.7 2009 P049719 Land Registration 2000 Highly Satisfactory Significant 10.0 2010 P069814 Consld TA 2000 Unsatisfactory High 2.9 2011 P078976 Rural Education 2005 Satisfactory Moderate 15.3 Total 154.2 Source: Key IEG Rating as of 05/09/2013 Annex Table 6: Project Ratings for Kyrgyz Republic Comparators, FY07-FY13 Total RDO % RDO % Total Outcome Outcome Exit FY Evaluated Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower Evaluated ($M) % Sat ($) % Sat (No) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Kyrgyz 154.2 9.0 60.9 66.7 9.9 11.1 ECA 16,003.8 253.0 86.9 81.4 67.4 64.8 IDA 21,952.9 477.0 71.6 65.3 40.3 39.7 World 93,043.3 1,239.0 82.5 72.9 67.0 56.9 Source: WB Business Warehouse as of 06/12/09/13 # With IEG new methodology for evaluating projects, institutional development impact and sustainability are no longer rated separately. ## Database Excludes Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Myanmar and Vanuatu from IDA Countries (no available data) Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Kyrgyz Republic and Comparators FY06-Present Fiscal year 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Overall Result Kyrgyz Republic # Proj 17 20 18 22 21 22 24 23 167 # Proj At Risk - 2 1 1 - 4 5 6 19 % Proj At Risk - 10.0 5.6 4.5 - 18.2 20.8 26.1 11.4 Net Comm Amt 232.2 268.2 205.2 215.0 248.1 381.2 371.7 372.1 2,293.9 Comm At Risk - 40.0 7.8 6.9 - 102.0 48.2 61.2 266.0 % Commit at Risk - 14.9 3.8 3.2 - 26.8 13.0 16.4 11.6 ECA # Proj 315 306 326 318 310 290 256 248 2,369 # Proj At Risk 31 27 40 55 52 40 47 55 347 Comm At Risk 9.8 8.8 12.3 17.3 16.8 13.8 18.4 22.2 14.6 Net Comm Amt 16,513.9 16,687.4 18,027.0 21,455.2 24,445.9 22,649.7 23,091.9 22,232.7 165,103.7 Comm At Risk 1,196.7 1,680.9 2,266.1 3,469.4 4,359.6 2,116.9 2,668.4 4,110.6 21,868.5 % Commit at Risk 7.2 10.1 12.6 16.2 17.8 9.3 11.6 18.5 13.2 World # Proj 1,468 1,485 1,832 1,925 1,990 2,059 2,029 2,006 14,794 # Proj At Risk 199 243 312 386 410 382 387 435 2,754 % Proj At Risk 13.6 16.4 17.0 20.1 20.6 18.6 19.1 21.7 18.6 Net Comm Amt 95,193.6 100,357.1 110,835.9 135,706.0 162,975.3 171,755.3 173,706.1 177,244.1 1,127,773.4 Comm At Risk 11,000.1 15,354.3 18,967.7 20,857.8 28,963.1 23,850.0 24,465.0 40,211.8 183,669.8 % Commit at Risk 11.6 15.3 17.1 15.4 17.8 13.9 14.1 22.7 16.3 Source: BW Table 3a.4 as of 05/16/2013 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 8: Net Disbursements and Charges Report for Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-12 Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfer FY2007 43,994,002 8,266,507 35,727,495 4,494,212 177,903 31,055,380 FY2008 54,192,187 9,907,814 44,284,374 2,353,904 2,565,150 39,365,319 FY2009 25,248,039 11,364,204 13,883,834 - 4,874,964 9,008,871 FY2010 38,108,035 12,928,144 25,179,891 - 4,971,687 20,208,203 FY2011 69,747,450 14,658,999 55,088,451 - 4,726,197 50,362,254 FY2012 93,227,791 15,067,118 78,160,673 - 5,068,460 73,092,213 Report Total 359,196,695 77,025,921 282,170,774 11,010,115 22,711,110 248,449,549 Source: Client Connection as of 05/29/13 Annex Table 9: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance and Official Aid for Kyrgyz Republic Development Partners 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Total France 0.12 0 0 0 0 0 0.12 Germany 8.24 8.45 1.16 0.44 2.93 4.88 26.1 Japan 8.6 2.17 2.17 2.07 -0.34 -0.37 14.3 United Kingdom 0 0 1.97 0 0 0 1.97 DAC Countries, Total 16.96 10.62 5.3 2.51 2.59 4.51 42.49 AsDB Special Funds 40.49 26.48 17.3 11.62 -8.48 19.88 107.29 Global Fund 0 0 0 0 0 -0.11 -0.11 IDA 19.35 13.11 9.32 -4.05 5.38 13.26 56.37 IFAD 0.58 0.33 -0.39 -0.37 -0.36 -0.38 -0.59 IMF (Concessional TF) -23.64 -20.77 18.97 -0.31 12.35 5.87 -7.53 Isl. Dev Bank 2.36 3.32 0.01 6.75 10.57 20.69 43.7 Nordic Dev. Fund .. -0.05 -0.15 -0.01 -0.13 -0.14 -0.48 OFID -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -0.71 -4.26 UNICEF 0 0 0 0 -0.01 -0.02 -0.03 Multilateral, Total 38.43 21.71 44.35 12.92 18.61 58.34 194.36 Kuwait (KFAED) .. .. .. -2.03 -1.89 -2.23 -6.15 Turkey 50.16 0 0 0 0 0 50.16 Non-DAC Countries, Total 50.16 0 0 -2.03 -1.89 -2.23 44.01 All Donors, Total 105.55 32.33 49.65 13.4 19.31 60.62 280.86 Source: OECD, Stat May 16, 2013 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table: 10 Economic and Social Indicators for Kyrgyz Republic 2007 -2011 Kyrgyz Kyrgyz ECA World Series Name 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Average 2007-2011 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 8.5 8.4 2.9 -0.5 6.0 5.1 0.9 2.0 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 7.5 7.4 1.7 -1.7 4.7 3.9 0.4 0.9 Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 10.2 24.5 6.9 8.0 16.5 13.2 3.3 5.1 Composition of GDP Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 31.1 27.0 21.1 19.4 18.6 23.5 1.9 2.8 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 19.3 23.5 26.6 29.2 30.8 25.9 26.3 26.6 Services, etc., value added (% of GDP) 49.6 49.4 52.4 51.4 50.6 50.7 71.8 70.6 Gross fixed capital formation (% of GDP) 25.0 27.2 28.6 28.1 24.0 26.6 19.5 20.3 Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) -4.6 -10.1 3.3 -2.7 -2.9 -3.4 21.4 20.5 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 52.9 53.5 54.7 51.6 54.5 53.5 39.8 28.3 Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 84.1 92.6 78.7 81.7 81.6 83.7 38.3 28.4 Current account balance (% of GDP) -6.0 -13.7 -2.2 -7.2 -6.1 -7.1 External debt stocks (% of GNI) .. .. .. .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 5.2 6.8 6.0 12.5 7.2 7.5 Total reserves in months of imports 4.3 2.9 4.9 4.9 3.9 4.2 5.9 13.3 Revenue, excluding grants (% of GDP) 20.7 20.1 18.8 19.4 21.1 20.0 34.8 22.9 Fiscal Accounts* General government revenue (% of GDP) 30.3 29.9 32.3 30.5 31.8 General government total expenditure (% of GDP) 31.0 28.9 33.4 36.4 36.4 General government gross debt (% of GDP) 56.8 48.5 58.0 60.3 50.1 Social Indicators Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 67.8 68.5 69.1 69.3 69.6 68.9 75.5 69.4 Immunization, DPT (% of children ages 12-23 months) 94.0 95.0 95.0 96.0 96.0 95.2 95.1 82.6 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 .. 93.0 92.0 61.8 Improved water source (% of population with access) 89.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 .. 89.8 97.9 87.7 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 31.3 30.2 29.2 27.9 27.0 29.1 12.0 39.2 Education School enrollment, primary (% gross) 97.9 98.1 98.3 99.6 100.9 98.9 102.4 106.2 School enrollment, secondary (% gross) 86.8 85.6 84.4 84.0 88.2 85.8 96.7 69.1 Population Population, total (Millions) 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 887.5 6,815.7 Population growth (annual %) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.4 1.2 Urban population (% of total) 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.3 35.4 35.3 69.8 51.0 *DDP Online as of June 24, 2013 **IMF Data as of April 2013 WEO Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: List of IFC investment operations in Kyrgyz Republic, FY07-13 (In thousand US$) Appr Cmt Project LN EQ Approv Project ORIG NET Project Short Name Date Date Status Primary Sector Name cance cance al FY Size CMT CMT Actual Actual Name l l SEF Magic Box 06/22/07 2007 06/25/07 Active Pulp & Paper 3,000 1,500 0 0 1,500 KICB Rights Issue 05/24/07 2007 04/17/07 Active Finance & Insurance 300 300 0 0 300 SEF Altyn-Aj III 06/27/08 2008 06/30/08 Active Primary Metals 3,300 1,600 800 0 800 Bai Tushum II 03/20/09 2009 04/9/09 Closed Finance & Insurance 7,300 4,000 1,000 0 3,000 KICB SL 08/7/08 2009 08/12/08 Active Finance & Insurance 5,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 DKIB SME Loan 06/17/09 2009 06/19/09 Closed Finance & Insurance 5,000 5,000 5,000 0 0 ATF Kyrgyzstan 08/13/09 2010 09/30/09 Active Finance & Insurance 15,000 10,000 0 0 10,000 SEF Magic Box II 03/3/11 2011 03/30/11 Active Pulp & Paper 5,240 2,500 0 0 2,500 KICB RI 2 05/9/11 2011 05/10/11 Active Finance & Insurance 1,275 1,275 0 0 1,275 FINCA Kyrgyzstan 04/21/11 2011 06/7/11 Active Finance & Insurance 6,000 6,000 0 0 6,000 FINCA Kyrgyz 2 03/12/12 2012 03/26/12 Active Finance & Insurance 7,000 4,000 0 0 4,000 Kompanion 03/23/12 2012 03/30/12 Active Finance & Insurance 9,000 6,000 0 0 6,000 InfraV-Kalininsk 2012 06/8/12 Active Electric Power 600 600 0 0 600 Finca Kyr Swap 09/24/12 2013 12/8/12 Active Finance & Insurance 75 75 0 0 75 Kompanion RM 09/20/12 2013 11/1/12 Active Finance & Insurance 100 100 0 0 100 Finca Kyr Swap 2 12/10/12 2013 01/2/13 Active Finance & Insurance 75 75 0 0 75 Finca Kyr Swap 3 12/10/12 2013 12/31/12 Active Finance & Insurance 75 75 0 0 75 Finca Kyr Swap 4 02/26/13 2013 03/11/13 Active Finance & Insurance 285 285 0 0 285 Total 68,625 48,385 6,800 0 41,585 Source: IFC MIS as of end April 2013 Annex Table 12: List of IFC Advisory services operations approved in FY07-10 Project Project Project Total Primary Project Name Status Start End Funding Business Name Date Date USD Amt SRsp Kumtor Snow Leopard Conservation & Biodiversity Project in Kyrgyzstan CLOSED SBA 01/12/05 06/30/08 191,818 CA Mortgage-KGZ CLOSED A2F 11/01/06 08/31/09 558,523 Central Asia Corporate Governance – Kyrgyzstan ACTIVE SBA 03/01/07 04/30/13 1,343,544 AS to Bai-Tushum CLOSED A2F 11/01/07 11/30/09 320,000 Kyrgyzstan Business Enabling Environment - inspections, tax administration ACTIVE IC 07/01/08 08/31/13 3,517,902 Transformation for MFIs in Kyrgyzstan ACTIVE A2F 03/01/10 06/30/13 970,399 Kyrgyzstan FM Infrastructure ACTIVE A2F 10/01/09 11/30/12 705,188 Kyrgyzstan Housing Microfinance ACTIVE A2F 02/01/12 01/31/15 1,060,000 Zalkar Bank privatization ACTIVE PPP 03/22/12 01/01/13 310,000 Total 8,977,374 Source: IFC Advisory services database, Oct 2012. Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: Millennium Development Goals 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Employment to population ratio, 15+, total (%) 59.0 59.0 60.0 60.0 61.0 Employment to population ratio, ages 15-24, total (%) 41.0 41.0 42.0 39.0 41.0 9,031. 4,878. 5,948. 6,096. 7,216. GDP per person employed (constant 1990 PPP $) 0 0 0 0 0 Income share held by lowest 20% 11.0 3.0 8.0 6.0 8.0 Malnutrition prevalence, weight for age (% of children under 5) .. 8.0 .. 3.0 .. Poverty gap at $1.25 a day (PPP) (%) - 9.0 9.0 6.0 1.0 Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) - 19.0 34.0 23.0 5.0 Vulnerable employment, total (% of total employment) .. .. 52.0 49.0 .. Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education Literacy rate, youth female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. 100.0 .. 100.0 Literacy rate, youth male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. 100.0 .. 100.0 Persistence to last grade of primary, total (% of cohort) .. 96.0 93.0 98.0 95.0 Primary completion rate, total (% of relevant age group) .. 103.0 93.0 98.0 96.0 Adjusted net enrollment rate, primary (% of primary school age children) .. 92.0 92.0 95.0 96.0 Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments (%) .. 1.0 2.0 - 23.0 Ratio of female to male primary enrollment (%) 102.0 101.0 98.0 99.0 99.0 Ratio of female to male secondary enrollment (%) 99.0 .. 103.0 100.0 100.0 Ratio of female to male tertiary enrollment (%) .. 125.0 101.0 124.0 124.0 Share of women employed in the nonagricultural sector (% of total nonagricultural .. 48.5 45.8 51.9 50.6 employment) Goal 4: Reduce child mortality Immunization, measles (% of children ages 12-23 months) 94.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 97.0 Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live births) 58.0 48.0 41.0 34.0 27.0 Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 70.0 58.0 47.0 39.0 31.0 Goal 5: Improve maternal health Adolescent fertility rate (births per 1,000 women ages 15-19) .. 38.0 34.0 33.0 33.0 Births attended by skilled health staff (% of total) 99.0 98.0 99.0 98.0 99.0 Contraceptive prevalence (% of women ages 15-49) .. 60.0 .. 48.0 .. Maternal mortality ratio (modeled estimate, per 100,000 live births) 73.0 98.0 82.0 77.0 71.0 Pregnant women receiving prenatal care (%) .. 97.0 .. 97.0 .. Unmet need for contraception (% of married women ages 15-49) .. 12.0 .. 1.0 .. Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases Children with fever receiving anti-malarial drugs (% of children under age 5 with .. .. .. .. .. fever) Condom use, population ages 15-24, female (% of females ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Condom use, population ages 15-24, male (% of males ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. .. Incidence of tuberculosis (per 100,000 people) 92.0 168.0 249.0 208.0 128.0 Prevalence of HIV, female (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.3 Prevalence of HIV, male (% ages 15-24) .. .. .. .. 0.3 Prevalence of HIV, total (% of population ages 15-49) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 Tuberculosis case detection rate (%, all forms) 57.0 44.0 50.0 60.0 80.0 Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability CO2 emissions (kg per PPP $ of GDP) 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita) 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 Forest area (% of land area) 4.4 .. 4.5 4.5 5.1 Improved sanitation facilities (% of population with access) 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 93.0 Annexes CAS and ISN CR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 Improved water source (% of population with access) 78.0 78.0 82.0 87.0 90.0 Marine protected areas (% of territorial waters) .. .. .. .. .. Net ODA received per capita (current US$) 5.0 62.0 44.0 52.0 95.0 Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development Debt service (PPG and IMF only, % of exports of goods, services and primary .. 13.0 10.0 7.0 3.0 income) Internet users (per 100 people) - .. 1.0 10.5 20.0 Mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people) - - - 11.0 116.0 Telephone lines (per 100 people) 7.0 8.0 8.0 9.0 9.0 Fertility rate, total (births per woman) 4.0 3.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 Other GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 520.0 360.0 280.0 450.0 900.0 GNI, Atlas method (current US$) (billions) 2.3 1.6 1.4 2.3 5.0 Gross capital formation (% of GDP) 24.2 18.3 20.0 14.3 24.2 Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 68.0 66.0 69.0 68.0 70.0 Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) .. .. 99.0 .. 99.0 Population, total (millions) 4.4 4.6 4.9 5.2 5.5 Trade (% of GDP) 78.8 71.8 89.4 96.4 136.2 Source: World Development Indicators