SUPPORTING REPORT 4 2 35 CHONGQING A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use Photo: jejim. © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judg- ment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Citation Please cite the report as follows: World Bank. 2019. Chongqing 2035: A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use. Supporting Report 4. Washing- ton, DC: World Bank. Acknowledgments The Lead Authors of the Overview and four supporting reports are Serge Salat, Xueman Wang, and Zhou Linjun. Cover photo: 4045. Design: Ultra Designs, Inc. Table of Contents 1. Introduction 2 Municipality Per Unit of GDP and Average Daily Energy Consumption in 2007–2015 4 Figure 5. Energy Consumption in Typical 2. Current Trends and Key Issues 3 Chinese Urban Structures 6 Figure 6. Energy Consumption Per Unit of GDP 7 3. Benchmarking and Lessons Figure 7. CO2 Emissions Per Capita and Per Unit from Global Cities 7 of GDP 7 Figure 8. Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 4. Recommendations: Chongqing’s in 2004–2015 8 Green Growth Transformation 12 Figure 9. Annual Mean PM10 and PM2.5 Green growth transformation I Concentration to WHO Interim Targets and WHO Reduce the energy intensity of the economy Air Quality Guidelines 8 and decarbonize the energy mix by increasing Figure 10. Energy Use Correlation with Economic the share of renewables 12 Activity in a Sample of 274 Cities Representative Green growth transformation II of World Cities 9 Plan for a compact urban form to decrease Figure 11. Changes in Gross Value Added and transportation energy use, pollution, and Energy Use in Japan’s Industry and Service congestion, and become a car-light city 12 Sectors in 2009–2016 11 Green growth transformation III Figure 12. Transportation Mode Share under Improve the energy and resource efficiency Different Scenarios 15 of the building sector with efficient buildings and districts 14 Figure 13. Automobile Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Per Regional Location under Different Green growth transformation IV Scenarios 15 Leverage Chongqing’s automobile production base to develop the fast-growing electric Figure 14. Automobile Vehicle Kilometers mobility sector 14 Traveled in 2035 under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 15. Daily Average Travel Time Per Capita References 17 under Different Scenarios 15 Figure 16. Automobile GHG in 2035 16 Endnotes 18 Figure 17. Automobile Air Pollutant Emissions in 2035 16 FIGURES BOXES Figure 1. CO2 Emissions Per Capita and Box 1. Green Growth Strategy Key Messages 2 CO2 Emissions Per Unit of GDP in Chinese Cities 3 Box 2. Energy Use of Urban Structures in China 4 Figure 2. Chongqing’s Energy Mix 4 Box 3. Energy Efficiency and Low-Carbon Figure 3. Energy Consumption Trend by Performance in Tokyo and Hong Kong SAR 10 Type of Energy for Chongqing 4 Box 4. Urban Growth Scenario Modeling of Impact Figure 4. Energy Consumption of Chongqing on The Environment and GHGs 13 Photo: onlyyouqj. 2 / A Green and Low Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use 1. Introduction Chongqing is at a crossroads where its GDP per fuels at 75 percent (Chongqing Municipal Bureau capita will reach a level at which cities typically of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing decouple economic growth from energy and 2016). Moreover, an inefficient urban form and an resource use, as well as associated carbon energy- and raw material-intensive economy have emissions and pollution. However, decoupling does led to an overconsumption of resources, serious not happen automatically. It requires cities to adopt environmental damage, and high GHG emissions. green growth policies. For Chongqing to build a To produce one unit of GDP, Chongqing Municipality more innovative economy that increases its share of consumes 10 times more energy and emits eight high-value activities, it is critical that it use resources times more CO2 than the Greater Tokyo Area or Seoul Capital Area. High emissions have deteriorating more efficiently. effects on its environment and air quality, and they Chongqing Municipality’s energy mix is dominated pose a significant danger to human health and risk by coal at 60 percent and more generally by fossil exacerbating climate change. BOX 1 Green Growth Strategy Key Messages Current trends and key issues: Recommendations: ■■ Chongqing’s manufacturing economy and ■■ Reduce the energy intensity of the economy and superblock-driven expansion pattern are decarbonize the energy mix by increasing the material- and energy-intensive. share of renewables. ■■ Chongqing’s carbon emissions are high and air ■■ Plan for a compact urban form to decrease quality is low, partly due to the high share of transportation energy use, emissions, pollution, coal in energy production and an urban form and congestion, and become a car-light city. that encourages driving. ■■ Improve the energy and resource efficiency of Benchmarking with global cities: the built environment with efficient buildings and districts. ■■ Chongqing’s energy use and greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions are very high compared to ■■ Leverage Chongqing’s automobile production global cities. base to develop the fast-growing electric mobility sector. ■■ While the development pathways of global cities suggest that resource use and economic growth can decouple, active policy measures are required to make this decoupling happen. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 3 2. Current Trends and Key Issues Chongqing’s economic growth is energy intensive economy supported by heavy industries, and an and its CO2 emissions are very high; the city emits energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, at 72 percent, about double the CO2 of Shanghai and Beijing to with coal representing about 60 percent of its total produce one unit of GDP. Between 1997 and 2015, energy consumption (figure 2 and figure 3). energy consumption per capita has grown fourfold— Nevertheless, there are signs that Chongqing’s GDP from 0.66 tons of standard coal per inhabitant in growth is decoupling from energy consumption. As 1997 to 2.39 tons in 2015. In 2014, Chongqing had shown in figure 4, its coal consumption has remained very high CO2 emissions, at 8.22 tCO2e per capita static and fallen slightly over the last few years, and at 0.78 tCO2e/US$1,000 at PPP per unit of GDP1 while the energy intensity per unit of GDP continues (figure 1). to decline significantly. Nonetheless, Chongqing’s Chongqing’s high carbon emissions per unit of energy consumption remains high. GDP can be explained by two structural issues: an FIGURE 1 CO2 Emissions Per Capita and CO2 Emissions Per Unit of GDP in Chinese Cities 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8.22 8.2 3.5 9.7 7.4 7.8 7.8 4 0 ng g i e ha ag jin qi ng ei er ng B a av Sh ho na C hi C ● CO2 emissions per capita (tons) ● CO2 emissions per 10,000 US$ at ppp Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Brookings Institution 2015, Economist Intelligence Unit 2011, and International Carbon Action Partnership 2014. 4 / A Green and Low Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use FIGURE 2 Chongqing’s Energy Mix FIGURE 3 Energy Consumption Trend by Type of Energy for Chongqing 100 900 12.06 8.60 8.96 13.93 7.17 10.73 9.28 10.71 11.30 12.03 12.95 8.39 12.30 11.28 11.76 7.57 12.34 13.48 8.62 12.22 11.52 13.74 8.66 11.85 12.53 8.01 13.39 13.29 13.32 14.96 14.85 14.41 90 800 14.19 11.68 14.28 11.28 13.74 13.44 12.76 80 12.09 14.43 12.76 12.18 700 11.13 % of total energy consumptiom 13.69 11.98 13.39 12.79 Index Base Year 1997 = 100 70 13.23 13.88 14.20 12.84 13.78 600 12.84 12.95 14.57 60 500 50 400 40 300 30 200 20 10 100 64.06 60.66 60.02 60.36 59.44 65.64 65.46 63.20 66.07 66.36 64.23 65.65 65.65 68.33 70.32 57.68 61.08 60.18 68.17 0 0 97 98 20 9 0 01 20 2 03 20 4 20 5 6 07 20 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 97 99 01 03 5 07 9 11 13 15 0 0 0 0 9 0 0 0 0 20 20 0 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 19 20 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 Year Year ● Coal ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity ● Total consumption of energy ● Coal ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. FIGURE 4 Energy Consumption of Chongqing Municipality Per Unit of GDP and Average Daily Energy Consumption in 2007–2015 30 Average Daily Energy Consumption 27.01 25 25.42 24.48 24.09 23.54 20 21.53 19.26 15 15.53 14.29 10 5 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Energy consumption of Chongqing municipality per unit of GDP (tons of standard coal per RMB 10,000) Average daily energy consumption (thousand tons of standard coal per day), 2007–2015 Source: Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 5 Chongqing’s urban expansion patterns are both superblocks that now cover three-quarters of the material and energy intensive. A significant decline central city’s built-up area, and are home to 35 in population density of almost 50 percent in the percent of its population and 15 percent of its jobs.3 last two decades has had a significant impact on Residential and commercial superblocks together energy use, infrastructure costs, and CO2 emissions, represent 86 percent of the urban area and are increasing resource consumption and infrastructure mainly located in the city’s fragmented outskirts. This costs per capita. Network costs per capita increase form has been one of the main drivers of the increase with lower densities, as these reduce economies of in energy consumption, as suggested by empirical scale.2 For example, a 50 percent fall in population evidence from a comparative study carried out in density increases water network costs by 72 percent Jinan focusing on 27 neighborhoods that represent per capita and street networks costs by 117 percent four urban typologies commonly found in Chinese per capita (Salat, Bourdic, and Kamiya 2017). cities—traditional, grid, enclave, and superblock (box 2) (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Chongqing’s superblock patterns are energy Tsinghua University 2010). intensive. Chongqing’s growth in the last two decades has taken place in the form of residential BOX 2 Energy Use of Urban Structures in China Households living in high-rise superblocks in Jinan energy than other types of neighborhoods, as consume up to double the energy of households these developments have few services within in any other residential type (figure 5). Energy walking distance and usually require the use consumption can be divided into three general of a car for daily activities. In other urban categories: structures, transportation energy is reduced by the presence of retail, schools, services, and 1. Operational energy: Operational consumption accessible jobs in pedestrian environments. (at home and in common areas) accounts for the largest share, about 71–79 percent of the 3. Embodied energy: This is the amount of estimated total household energy consumption. energy required during the life cycle of a The high level of operational energy material or product—production, extraction, consumption in superblocks is mainly due to processing, manufacturing, transportation, the need for the vertical transport of people, implementation, maintenance, and recycling, water, and goods, but also for the operation with the notable exception of use. Superblocks of car parks (lighting, ventilation) and large have the highest embodied energy use because underutilized spaces. In contrast, medium-height of their peripheral locations that require and high-density urban fabrics consume the new infrastructure and land development. A least energy. superblock in Jinan has the highest embodied 2. Transportation energy: Transportation energy is energy per household, reaching a maximum the second most important factor in household of more than 12,000 MJ/household per year, energy use. Superblocks consume on average compared to the minimum of less than 6,000 two to three times more transportation MJ/household per year. Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010. 6 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use FIGURE 5 Energy Consumption in Typical Chinese Urban Structures 140,000 An urban form that encourages the use of private cars generates more GHG emissions and lowers air 120,000 quality. Urban sprawl and superblocks increase the dependence on private vehicles. Households living in Energy consumption (MJ) 100,000 single-use superblocks are highly dependent on cars to accomplish their daily activities and they consume 80,000 two to three times more transportation-related energy than those in other neighborhood types on 60,000 average (Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua University 2010). Increasing congestion 40,000 resulting from car dependence has become one 20,000 of the most serious threats to air quality. The high reliance on cars and the activities that form the basis 0 of Chongqing’s economy result in the city’s high Traditional Grid Enclave High-rise level of sulfur dioxide and particulate matter (PM), courtyard superblock which are produced by combustion engines, solid ● Embodied ● Transportation ● Operational fuel, road use, and a variety of industrial processes Source: Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Tsinghua (WHO 2013). The burning of fossil fuels in power University 2010. plants, industrial plants, and vehicles, while necessary for industrial growth, has been the main cause of air pollution. Photo: gyn9038. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 7 3. Benchmarking and Lessons from Global Cities Chongqing’s energy intensity and greenhouse gas unit of GDP. Chongqing emits 20 times more CO2 and CO2 emissions are very high compared to global to create one unit of GDP than a highly efficient cities. To produce one unit of GDP, Chongqing uses European city such as Oslo, which uses the highest 10 times more energy than Tokyo, eight times more share of renewable energy among world cities, at 65 energy than Hong Kong SAR, and four times more percent (figure 7). energy than Seoul or Singapore. The higher energy The air quality in Chongqing is significantly efficiency of Tokyo and Hong Kong SAR is due to a poorer than in global cities. Chongqing’s urban air more compact urban form, the higher penetration pollution, which has accompanied its rapid economic of energy-efficient technologies, and an economic development and urbanization, has caused a growing structure oriented towards services (figure 6). number of air quality problems. Chongqing’s residents Compared to other Asian megacities such as Seoul are exposed to levels of pollutants in the air that far and Tokyo, Chongqing has double the emissions per exceed World Health Organization (WHO) limits and capita and about eight times higher emissions per levels in other Chinese provincial-level cities (figure 8). FIGURE 6 Energy Consumption Per Unit of GDP FIGURE 7 CO2 Emissions Per Capita and Per Unit of GDP 13 9 12.3 Energy consumption per GDP MJ/1,000 USD 12 12 8.22 11.7 8 7.8 7.8 11 7.4 10 7 9 6 (Current prices) 8 7 5 4.8 6 6 4 3.7 5 3 4 3.2 2.2 3 3 2 2 1.5 1 1.1 1.2 1 1 0.4 0 0 e ng g ou l e R o ng e l o o ou ou or ag ag ky ky sl jin SA zh qi qi O Se Se ap To To ei er er ng ng ng g B av av ng n ho ho ua Ko Si an na C C G g si hi on A C H ● CO2 emmissions per capita (tons) ● CO2 emmissions per 10,000 US$ at PPP Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Economist Intelligence Unit 2011. Institute for this report, based on Brookings Institution 2015, Economist Intelligence Unit 2011, and International Carbon Action Partnership 2014. 8 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use FIGURE 8 Atmospheric Sulfur Dioxide Emissions in 2004–2015 SO2 emissions in tons 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ● Beijing ● Tianjin ● Shanghai ● Chongqing Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2016. Global cities have a higher share of services in their than three times higher than in Tokyo and Singapore, economies and a lower share of heavy industry, and and more than six times higher than in New York they have stringent regulations to decouple energy (figure 9). New York has excellent air quality, with consumption and PM emissions from GDP growth. particulate concentration below the long-term levels Falling energy demand, an increase in the uptake of recommended by the WHO. This is due to the high low-carbon alternatives, and increasingly stringent modal share of transit in New York and two decades air quality regulations are resulting in lower of increasingly stringent air quality standards, with emissions of most major pollutants in many OECD numerous actions taken to reduce emissions from cities. PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Chongqing are more local sources of pollution. than twice those in Hong Kong SAR and Seoul, more FIGURE 9 Annual Mean PM10 (Left) and PM2.5 (Right) Concentrations Compared to WHO Interim Targets and WHO Air Quality Guidelines (AQG)4 120 65 110 60 100 55 90 50 45 80 40 70 35 60 30 50 25 40 20 30 15 20 10 10 5 106 50 30 30 46 20 49 70 24 29 28 28 35 25 22 22 10 16 61 18 18 15 15 15 12 9 0 0 ng ing R l ap o e Lo r i s C don ew o rk qu ri rg 3 ity ta t 2 id t 1 es ng ing R l ap o e Lo r i s C don ew o rk qu ri rg 3 ity ta t 2 id t 1 es ou ou or or ng y ng y N cag N cag SA SA i r I n te t a e t i r I n te t a e t rim Yo rim Yo gu ge e in in Pa Pa Si Tok Si Tok e e Se Se Ko q Ko q g n rim rg n rim rg el el g ng g ng r r hi hi te t a te t a on ho on ho gu al m al m C C te te In In In In H H A A ● PM10 concentration ● WHO interim targets and AQG ● PM2.5 concentration ● WHO interim targets and AQG Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on WHO 2005, 2016. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 9 An observation from the development of many study of 274 cities using data from the World Bank global cities is that when urban wealth reaches on 2009 GDP at PPP,5 the Global Energy Assessment a certain level, resource consumption does not and the International Association of Public Transport necessarily continue to increase with increasing suggested that energy use increases with economic GDP per capita. For example, the Asian Green activity, especially for cities with GDP per capita Cities Index shows a steady increase in resource below US$10,000. This growth slows down when consumption with GDP per capita only up to GDP per capita is above US$20,000, and decoupling a certain level—when incomes exceed around occurs for cities with GDP per capita above US$20,000 per person, average consumption US$30,000 (figure 10) (Creutzig, et al. 2014). decreases (Economist Intelligence Unit 2011). In a FIGURE 10 Energy Use Correlation with Economic Activity in a Sample of 274 Cities Representative of World Cities 1,000 Region Asia LAC MAF OECD 100 Energy use (GJ/pop) REF Density (pop/km2) 4,000 8,000 12,000 Fuel price (US$/I) <0.6 <0.6–1 10 1–1.4 >1.4 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 GDP per capita (US$/pop) Source: Creutzig, et al. 2014. © Creutzig, et al. Reproduced with permission from Creutzig and PNAS; further permission required for reuse. LAC: Latin America and the Caribbean; MAF: Middle East and Africa; REF: Reforming economies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union. 10 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use The most energy-efficient cities are in the cluster of with transit, mixed-use developments, and a well- European cities located in the middle of the graph. balanced job and housing ratio. Other policies include These cities are compact and have higher fuel prices, increasing the use of non-motorized transport and which shows that decoupling is quite effective across replacing coal with renewable energies. A good the European Union (EU), with London and Prague example is Copenhagen, which aims to become the having similar levels of energy use per capita despite first large carbon-neutral city by 2025. Copenhagen’s their differences in wealth. Among the wealthiest GDP per capita has increased by 30 percent between cities, those in the United States, except New York, 1993 and 2010, while its carbon emissions have are slightly above the general decoupling trend due halved since 1993 to 3.5 tons of CO2 per capita, to their sprawling urban form and low fuel prices. thus achieving an absolute decoupling of economic For carbon emissions, similar patterns of decoupling growth and carbon emissions. Copenhagen is happen when cities become wealthier: the six richest well known for its “Finger Plan” model of urban Asian cities emit an average of 5.8 tons/person per development from 1947, which has channeled urban year, compared to an overall average of 4.6 tons/ growth along rail corridors that radiate from the person among Asian cities (Economist Intelligence city center, while protecting “green wedges” from Unit 2011). The five cities in the middle-income group development. The city has achieved a high level of produce an average of 7.6 tons/person per year. integration between land use and transit, with 57 percent of the population and 61 percent of the jobs However, decoupling does not happen located within walking distance of urban rail stations automatically. Examples of global cities, such as (Rode et al. 2013). Moreover, the city aims to have 50 Copenhagen, London, New York, and Hong Kong percent of commuting trips made by bike. Replacing SAR, show that increased wealth creates the coal and biomass for heating and power generation, conditions for decoupling, but this must be bundled and the increased use of wind energy have also made with integrated policies to achieve the desired a substantial contribution to reducing its overall outcome (box 3). Policies that should be put in place emissions. include a compact urban form, with densities aligned BOX 3 Energy Efficiency and Low-Carbon Performance in Tokyo and Hong Kong SAR Stringent national regulations on emissions, a and gasoline consumption. Gross value added per comprehensive energy policy, investments in capita increased by 50 percent between 1993 and renewable energy and energy efficiency, and a 2011, while per capita CO2 emissions and gasoline compact urban form with the most extensive consumption fell by about 10 percent each. Total urban rail network contribute to making Tokyo the annual carbon emissions from passenger transport city with the world’s highest energy productivity in Hong Kong SAR are 378 kg/person, compared (ratio of energy consumption to value added) at to around 1,000 kg/person in European cities and nearly three times the global average. Japan has more than 5,000 kg/person in Houston, Texas. successfully decoupled its industry and services Hong Kong SAR spends only around 5 percent of sectors as well, as shown in figure 11. its GDP on motorized travel compared to 12–14 percent in cities like Melbourne and Houston. Hong Kong SAR’s compact development model has also led to a decoupling of economic growth Source: Rode, et al. 2013.. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 11 FIGURE 11 Changes in Gross Value Added and Energy Use in Japan’s Industry and Service Sectors in 2009–2016 Industry Services 110 110 105 105 Index (2010 = 100) 100 100 95 95 90 90 85 85 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Gross value added Energy use Source: International Energy Agency 2017. 12 / A Green and Low Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use Photo: Pengpeng. 4. Recommendations: Chongqing’s Green Growth Transformation Compared to cities with higher GDP per capita, the technological efficiency of energy conversion and Chongqing is in a state of transition: its nominal use; the other is structural and requires improving GDP per capita in 2016 was US$8,908, and it will Chongqing’s industrial structure by moving up the soon reach a stage where its economic growth may value chain towards high-end manufacturing. The begin to decouple from energy and resource use. share of renewables in Chongqing’s energy mix is To accelerate the process of decoupling, lessons from currently far below China’s average of 11.2 percent in other more developed cities show that Chongqing 2014, and Chongqing should strive to achieve China’s should change the course of its spatial development national goals. China’s goal of increasing its use of and make its industry and economy more energy non-fossil energy in primary energy consumption efficient to ensure that additional economic growth to about 20 percent by 2030 means that by 2030, does not come with an environmental cost. A green its non-fossil energy supplies will have to be seven growth strategy will help Chongqing climb the value or eight times their 2005 level. Simultaneously, the chain by boosting efficiency and fostering the growth CO2 intensity of energy consumption will fall by 20 of clusters of expertise in the knowledge-intensive percent compared with 2005 levels, which will play a green production sector. Chongqing can become a key role in significantly reducing the CO2 intensity of laboratory for the green economy in which learning GDP (Cheng and Tong 2017). and experience inspire innovation and reduce the cost of implementing new technologies. A green growth strategy requires Chongqing to Green growth transformation II adopt an integrated approach that combines policy, Plan for a compact urban form to regulations, and spatial considerations. This strategic decrease transportation energy use, direction will require green growth transformations pollution, and congestion, and become for the main sectors that contribute to emissions— a car-light city energy, buildings, transport, and urban form. Urban compactness, increased walkability, public transportation, and concentrating people, jobs, Green growth transformation I and amenities near mass transit stations reduce transportation energy consumption and emissions, Reduce the energy intensity of the as well as the resources embodied in transportation economy and decarbonize the energy infrastructure. Compact city policies are the first lever mix by increasing the share of renewables to reduce mobility environmental impacts and reduce Chongqing’s poor air quality and high level of carbon and pollutant emissions. In the Compact carbon emissions per capita and per unit of GDP Growth scenario modeling conducted for this derive primarily from an economy that is highly report, the GHG and pollutant emissions associated resource-intensive and from an energy mix with automobile use are reduced by 40 percent dominated by coal and fossil fuels. Reducing the compared to the Trend scenario (box 4). Following energy intensity of the economy includes two key Singapore, Chongqing should systematically move actions: one is technological and implies improving towards becoming a car-light city. This would require SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 13 BOX 4 Urban Growth Scenario Modeling of the Impact on the The Environment and GHGs Urban development patterns have substantial scenario totals 311 billion km. The difference of effects on climate change mitigation and 99 billion km is equivalent to over seven years of environmental sustainability. While policies that driving at current levels. address the technical aspects of vehicle efficiency, building performance, and energy supply play Additionally, as illustrated in figure 15, commuters important roles in conserving resources and in the Trend scenario spend an extra five minutes reducing emissions, the impacts of land use and per day traveling on average across all modes.7 strategic development are even more crucial to Compact growth reduces GHG and air pollutant sustainable growth. emissions associated with transportation and Compact growth induces a modal shift towards improves air quality walking and public transportation The difference in VKT between the scenarios Modal share is an indicator of the extent to which corresponds to a similar difference in GHG the local urban environment and regional land emissions, with the Compact Growth scenario use patterns support non-auto alternatives. The having 2.6 MMT less CO2 emissions per year in walking and transit shares of trips are 5 percent 2035 compared to the Trend scenario. These and 4 percent higher in the Compact Growth emissions savings exceed current annual CO2 scenario than in the Trend scenario, while the auto emissions from auto travel within the regional share is 9 percent lower. The mode shares for the study area. These figures are based on current scenarios are summarized in figure 12. vehicle performance, and the uptake of newer, Compact growth reduces vehicle kilometers more energy-efficient vehicle technologies in the traveled (VKT) by household automobiles and future could lower emissions even further (figure daily average travel time per capita 16 and figure 17). Through lower automobile use and shorter travel Emissions of air pollutants from vehicles also distances, the Compact Growth scenario results decrease with VKT. The Compact Growth scenario in 18.7 billion VKT annually in 2035, or 39 percent has 293,000 MT less in total emissions of NOx, less than the 30.6 billion VKT in the Trend scenario. CO, THC, particulate matter, black carbon, and The average VKT per capita is 2,320 km per year in the Trend scenario compared to 1,420 km in SO2 by 2035 than the Trend scenario, accounting the Compact Growth scenario. Figure 13 and for a difference of 85 percent. This reduction in figure 14 illustrate the annual VKT results per emissions exceeds the current annual emissions capita. Cumulative to 2035, the VKT difference from automobile travel in the regional study between the Trend and Compact Growth scenarios area. As with GHGs, the adoption of newer and is significant. While VKT in the Trend scenario cleaner vehicle technologies would further reduce totals 410 billion km, VKT in the Compact Growth emissions. Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. 14 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use a combination of both carrot and stick approaches, gas emissions from heating and electricity in recent where driving private vehicles is made more difficult decades, with emissions falling from 3.8 tCO2e to 2.3 through the reduction of parking facilities and tCO2e per person between 1990 and 2010. increased toll charges, etc.; and public transit and Chongqing can also innovate by creating eco- active modes are encouraged or subsidized. neighborhoods with integrated district-level solutions that increase energy efficiency in construction, heating, water and waste compared to building- Green growth transformation III specific solutions. Improve the energy and resource efficiency of the building sector with efficient buildings and districts Green growth transformation IV The building sector will have a strong impact Leverage Chongqing’s automobile on Chongqing’s environmental performance. production base to develop the fast- Construction projects have been a major engine of growing electric mobility sector growth in Chongqing, representing three-quarters of the growth in fixed assets, and this trend is likely Globally, road transport is responsible for 16 to continue. It is estimated that the building sector percent of energy-related global carbon emissions is responsible for 40 percent of global energy (Herzog 2009). In 2009, this sector constituted 7 consumption and about 20 percent of global percent of emissions in Chongqing, compared to water consumption. Energy and water are sectors 18 percent in Shanghai (Liu 2016). There is a clear in which Chongqing needs to make significant opportunity for Chongqing to limit any future reduction efforts and that offer the highest potential growth in this area. Greening urban transport with for mitigating GHG emissions, according to the innovative technologies is a win-win solution, that Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). tackles pollution and GHG emissions and serves as In 2009, building heating accounted for 8 percent a potential driver of growth in Chongqing, where of Chongqing’s emissions (Liu 2016). Energy automobile production is a leading manufacturing efficiency measures such as insulation, renewable sector. Registrations of electric cars reached a micro-generation, conversion of heating energy new record in 2016, with more than 750,000 sales into electricity (through air and ground-source heat worldwide.6 China has an electric car market share pumps), and district heating from renewable energy close to 1.5 percent and a strong potential for growth. sources are already used in many cities around the In 2016, China was by far the largest market for world. Implementing such measures will ensure electric cars globally, accounting for more than 40 that Chongqing’s growth is not accompanied by a percent of electric cars sold worldwide ; this figure significant jump in emissions from the construction represents more than double the volume sold in the and building sectors. These types of policies can United States. Chongqing can leverage its existing have significant impacts. For example, Stockholm has automobile production base to become a global experienced a 33 percent reduction in greenhouse leader in the production and use of electric cars. SUPPORTING REPORT ➍ CHONGQING 2035 / 15 FIGURE 12 Transportation Mode Share under Different FIGURE 13 Automobile Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Per Scenarios Regional Location under Different Scenarios 4,000 24% 20% 3,500 29% 3,000 2,500 35% 37% 33% 2,000 km 1,500 1,000 40% 38% 43% 500 0 Base Trend Compact Trend Compact Growth Growth ● Walk ● Transit ● Auto ● Core ● Core-Adjacent ● Extension Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. Urban Growth Scenarios. FIGURE 14 Automobile Vehicle Kilometers Traveled FIGURE 15 Daily Average Travel Time Per Capita under in 2035 under Different Scenarios Different Scenarios 35 74 72 minutes 30 72 25 70 20 68 67 Billion km Minutes minutes 15 66 10 64 5 62 0 60 Trend Compact Growth Trend Compact Growth Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. Urban Growth Scenarios. 16 / A Green and Low-Carbon Growth Strategy to Decouple Economic Growth from Resource Use FIGURE 16 Automobile GHG in 2035 FIGURE 17 Automobile Air Pollutant Emissions in 2035 8 350,000 7 300,000 6 250,000 5 200,000 MMT 4 MT 150,000 3 100,000 2 1 50,000 0 0 Trend Compact Growth Trend Compact Growth Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. Urban Growth Scenarios. 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This data set includes 274 cities from 60 countries data on a representative sample of about 40 cities, with a combined population of 775 million, or 21 which has been mathematically analyzed by the percent of the global urban population. While the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute. GDP data date back to 2009, the thresholds and (Salat 2016; Salat, Bourdic, and Kamiya 2017). This global clustering remain valid today. statistical analysis allows for calculation of the 6. With a market share of 29 percent, Norway has the elasticity of water, wastewater, and street network most successful deployment of electric cars in the lengths and costs per capita with regard to average world. residential density. 7. Travel time is a function of accessibility, mobility, 3. Satellite picture analysis made for this report distance, and congestion. How much time people by Calthorpe Associates and China Sustainable spend commuting or otherwise getting around to Transportation Center (CSTC). meet daily needs plays a big role in quality of life. 4. Hong Kong SAR and Seoul are close to the WHO Beyond the social dimensions, travel time also has Interim Target (IT) 2, where long-term risks of an impact on economic productivity. premature mortality are reduced by about 6 percent compared to IT 1. Paris and Tokyo are at IT 3, which 2 35 CHONGQING