Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 15786 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT TUNISIA FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (LOAN 2870-TUN) JUNE 21, 1996 Natural Resources and Environment Division Magreb and Iran Department This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS At Appraisal (Dec.1986) Tunisian Dinar (D) 1.0 = US$1.23 At Completion (Dec.1995) Tunisian Dinar (D) 1.0 = US$1.02 US$1.00 = 0.98 Tunisian Dinar WEIGHTS AND MEASURES The metric system FISCAL YEAR OF BORROWER January 1 - December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AVFA Agence de vulgarisation et de formation agricole FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FD Forestry Directorate/Director gen6rale des forets FDP Forestry Development Project GOT Government of Tunisia ICR Implementation Completion Report INRF National Forest Research Institute M&F Monitoring and Evaluation NIFRL National Inventory of Forest and Range Lands PMU Project Management Unit REF Regie d'exploitation forestiere SAR Staff Appraisal Report FOR OFFICLAL USE ONLY i TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE.i EVALUATION SUMMARY.ii PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT ................ 1 A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES .................... 1 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF OBJECTIVES ............................ 2 Sectoral Results ........................................ 2 Physical Results ........................................ 2 Institutional Development .................................. 4 Financial and Economic Results .............................. 5 Social and Environmental Impacts ............................. 5 Promotion of the Private Sector .............................. 6 C. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT .................... 6 Factors Not Generally Subject to Government Control ................. 6 Factors Generally Subject to Government Control ................... 6 Factors Generally Subject to Implementing Agency Control ............. 7 D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY .................. 7 E. BANK PERFORMANCE .......................... 7 F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE .............................. 8 G. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOME .................. 8 H. FUTURE OPERATIONS .......................... 8 I. KEY LESSONS LEARNT ................................... 9 PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES TABLES Table 1: Summary of Assessments ............................... 11 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits ........... .. ................ 13 Table 3: Project Timetable ................. ................... 14 Table 4: Loan/Credit Disbursements: Cumulative Estimated and Actual ... ..... 14 This document has a restrictcd distribution and may be used by recipients only in the perform.ance of their olocial dudes. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed wi.hout World Bank authorization. ii Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation ..................... 15 Table 6: Key Indicators for Project Operation ......... . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . 16 Table 7: Studies Included in Project ............ .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 16 Table 8A: Project Costs ......................... ..... ..... .. . 17 Table 8B: Project Financing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Table 9: Economic Costs and Benefits .......... .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . . . 19 Table 10: Status of Legal Covenants ............ .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. . 20 Table 11: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements ...... . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Table 12: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs .......... .. .. . .. . .. .. . .. . . . 21 Table 13: Bank Resources: Missions ............ .. .. . .. .. .. .. .. .. . 22 APPENDICES A. Mission's Aide Memoire B. Financial and Economic Analysis C. Additional Tables on Physical Results PROJECT DATA SHEET IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT TUNISIA FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (Ln. 2870-TUN) PREFACE 1. This is an Implementation Completion Report (ICR) for the first Forestry Development Project in Tunisia, for which a loan in the amount of US$ 20 million equivalent was approved on 28 September 1987. The loan became effective on 28 April 1988, and as scheduled in the Loan Agreement, the loan closed on 31 December 1995. 2. This report was prepared by a mission from FAO/World Bank Cooperative Programme" which visited Tunisia from 12 to 26 June 1995. It is based on material gathered from project fles and supervision reports in the World Bank, Washington, and on substantive discussions with the Bank and GOT staff. The mission's preliminary findings were presented to the Government in an Aide M6moire (see Appendix A). The report was discussed with the Government in December 1995 and comments received have been incorporated in this report. The report was reviewed by T.P.N. Sinha, Acting Division Chief, MN1NE, and by Ms. Laurie Effron, Acting Project Advisor. " J.L. Blanchez (Forester - FONS, Mission Leader), J.M. Bisson (Economist, FAQ/IC Staff), and D. Crespo (Pasture Specialist, Consultant). IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT TUNISIA FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (FIP) (Ln. 2870-TUN) EVALUATION SUMMARY A. Introduction 1. Tunisia's trade deficit in wood and wood products nearly doubled in the first part of the 1980s, but the country's potential to produce wood had been largely ignored. Since 1985, the Bank has been working closely with the Government to increase the production of wood and forest-related products, better safeguard the environment, and revitalize public involvement in forestry. The FDP was prepared in 1985/86", appraised in December 1986 and represented the core of the Government's Seventh Development Plan in the forestry sector. 2. The project's objectives were to: (a) increase fuelwood and industrial wood production; (b) improve forest grasslands and range management to compensate for grazing areas lost to the closure of forest lands for natural forest regeneration and tree planting; (c) reduce soil erosion and increase water retention to protect the productivity of agricultural lands; and (d) preserve and expand the country's nature and wildlife heritage. The five main components of the project are as follows: (a) forest exploitation and regeneration (mainly thinning of conifer plantations, regeneration of natural forests, and promotion of private sector); (b) forest plantations and private tree planting, improvement of forest nurseries and seed collection; (c) intensified forest management (construction of infrastructure and provision of logistical facilities; (d) forest pasture and range improvement (establishment of permanent and improved natural pastures); and (e) institutional development/support (preparation of a national forest and range inventory, improvement of national park management, training and research). B. Implementation Experiences 3. Thinning of pine plantations has been realized over 45,501 ha (91 % of the target) and forest regeneration has covered 16,310 ha (76% of the target). On the other hand, the mechanized plantations programme has covered only 4,880 ha (as opposed to 8,100 ha foreseen in the SAR) mainly because of shortage of suitable areas for planting in the selected zones. Nevertheless, the survival rate is over 80% and initial growth is good. As planned, 2,608 ha (100% of the target) of poplar, eucalyptus and acacia have been planted along the "oueds" and the survival rates are reported to be excellent. New production techniques in nurseries (mainly " A Forestry Sector Study (Projet de developpement forestier et lutte contre la desertification - 2 volumes - March 1986) was carried out in 1985/86 by FAO through a Trust Fund Agreement and assistance under FAO's Technical Cooperative Programme. ii the use of cement tanks) have been developed and thus has increased both the quality of the plants produced and the overall productive capability. 4. The provision of infrastructure and facilities for forest management has proceeded as envisaged. Around 3,000 ha of pastures have been established (82% of objective), although the quality is poor and no appropriate forage/range management systems have yet been put in place. A national inventory of forest and range lands has been carried out and plans for forest and pasture development have been prepared. A monitoring and evaluation system has been established, but its performance has been disappointing because of the poor quality of incoming information, the inadequacy of indicators for project performance assessment and the shortage of trained staff. The project implementation benefitted from the research, training and technical assistance components of the project. The population living in the project areas have benefited from the project through the provision of about 4.8 million person-days of labour. The objective of involving the private sector in forestry has been successful. 5. Actual project costs are estimated at US$ 40.3 million, 20% less than in the SAR mainly due to the reduced expenditure of the plantations and road programmes. About US$ 2.6 million, out of the US$ 20 million loan, remained undisbursed and was cancelled. The Government has disbursed US$ 22.2 million of counterpart funds compared to the US$ 30.2 planned at appraisal. All major legal covenants have been fulfilled. The economic rate of return has been estimated at 9% excluding non quantifiable environmental and social benefits, which are substantial. Inclusion of such benefits are likely to raise the ERR to 11 %. Although satisfactory the ERR is lower than the SAR estimate of 18%, mainly because the assumptions for incremental wood production were over optimistic. 6. Key factors affecting project achievement. The inadequate delimitation of suitable lands for mechanized plantations in the selected zones and the 1993-94 drought in Tunisia slowed down the plantations programme. In addition, the much delayed recruitment of forestry technicians in 1991 resulted in the postponement of tree marking operations and slowed down the thinning/regeneration programmes. The 1992 partial restructuring of the Ministry of Agriculture disturbed the project's institutional set-up and has had a negative impact on field operations. Finally, delays in selection of consultants created difficulties in executing forest inventory and mechanized plantation components of the project. 7. Sustainability. The sustainability of most project components is directly linked to the execution of the second phase of the FDP. The first phase has demonstrated that commercial operations, such as mechanized and riverine plantations, can be financially sustainable. On the other hand, the sustainability of the forest pastures and range improvement activities associated with the protection of the planted and regenerated areas appears doubtful mainly because the socio-economic conditions of the livestock owners are poorly understood. 8. Bank and borrower's performance. The project did not experience major problems and was regularly supervised. The supervision record is satisfactory. Some difficulties were created at the time of a restructuring in 1992. The Ministry of Agriculture could have been more sensitive to the institutional needs of the project at the time of its restructuring in 1992. The iii Ministry should also have made more effort to provide better staffing for project monitoring and implementation. C. Assessment of Outcome 9. Despite its pilot nature and the inherent risks and information gaps, the project has been successful. The evolution and progress made in managing the forestry sector have been significant. The project has accelerated technical improvements and institutional changes needed for the sector development. It has introduced more progressive (commercially-oriented) policies and managerial practices in forestry operations, with the increased involvement of the private sector. New techniques have also been adopted in soil preparation before planting, forest exploitation and seedling production. Furthermore, monopolistic situations have been practically eliminated by liberalizing cork sales, promoting auction systems and reducing wood price distortions. D. Summary of Findings, Future Operations and Key Lessons Learned 10. Findings. The project was largely successful, especially in promoting sectoral reform. However, some activities failed to meet their targets. The mechanized plantation programme, for example, met limited success, mainly because of a lack of availability of lands suitable for mechanized land preparation. In addition, project monitoring and evaluation was not given sufficient importance and therefore some components - such as the establishment of pastures - were not successful as remedial action could not be taken in time. A further problem was that project management was concentrated in the Forestry Directorate, even though some of the components, particularly the establishment of pastures, required the close participation of other sectors, e.g. for livestock development. Unfortunately, the coordination committee set up to address this problem failed to develop the necessary appropriate multi-sectoral linkages. 11. Future operations. The management and protection of forests created under this project is adequate and is being handled by Provincial Forestry Services. 12. Key lessons learnt. The main lessons learnt are as follows: (a) forest plantation schemes are strongly influenced by socioeconomic, and topographic conditions which have to be carefully assessed when planning large programmes; (b) efficient project management requires an adequate performance monitoring and evaluation system (particularly early on); (c) complex multi-sectoral projects need special institutional arrangements to develop inter-sectoral linkages or the design needs to be simplified; (d) when consecutive projects overlap additional resources are needed to cater for the work required for the preparation of the follow on project. IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION REPORT TUNISIA FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT (Ln. 2870-TUN) PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT A. STATEMENT/EVALUATION OF OBJECTIVES 1. In 1986, the strategy of the 7th Development Plan for the Agricultural Sector (including forestry), focused on increasing production and reducing the sector trade deficit. At that time, Tunisia's 900,000 ha of forest land (pine and oak) were poorly managed and degraded because of overgrazing and uncontrolled cutting for fuel. As a result Tunisia imported about 95 % of industrial wood needs. To exacerbate matters, the investment budget for forestry and soil conservation was decreasing and managerial capacity weak. The consequences of this were serious. However, studies showed that the potential for increased wood production existed and the proposed project aimed at establishing the basis for the comprehensive development of forest resources and the conservation of the natural heritage. 2. The project's objectives (Staff Appraisal Report, July 1987), were to improve the cost effectiveness of a forest resources management by: (a) increasing fuelwood and industrial wood production; (b) improving forest grasslands and range management to compensate for grazing areas lost due to the closure of forest lands for natural regeneration and tree planting; (c) reducing soil erosion and increasing water retention to protect the productivity of agricultural lands; and (d) preserving and expanding the country's nature and wildlife heritage and improving the country's cultural and recreational facilities. 3. The project had five main components: (a) forest exploitation and regeneration; (b) forest plantations and private tree planting; (c) intensified forest management; (d) forest pasture and range management; (e) institutional development support, including a national forest inventory and development plans, nature conservation, technical assistance, training and provision for equipment. 4. The objectives of the project were valid. However, because of its pilot nature and the introduction of new technology the project was inherently risky. In view of this, some physical targets were also over-ambitious, like the 8,100 ha of mechanised plantations, the pasture improvement programme and the 21,500 ha of forest regeneration. The use of new techniques, an absence of information on social conditions, and the limited managerial capacity of the Tunisian forest institutions should have been taken more into account in setting project targets. 2 PART I. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT B. ACHIVEMENT OF OBJECTIVES 5. Project achievements were difficult to assess because the monitoring and evaluation system did not provide comprehensive figures and data. Project results were therefore judged on the basis of supervision reports, the project's annual reports, and information provided by the Project Management Unit (PMU). Sectoral Results 6. The sectoral achievements are significant. The project succeeded in promoting the development of new techniques such as the mechanisation of forest operations and the adoption of improved nursery techniques. The project was also successful in increasing private sector involvement in forest activities (thinning, exploitation) and made important advances in involving communities in the management and protection of forested areas. 7. In addition, the availability of forest inventory data, the preparation of strategies for forest and pasture resources development, the establishment of a computerised monitoring systems for all forest activities, and the adoption of commercially oriented policies in forest operations have improved considerably. The project has also initiated a development process inside the forestry sector and has enhanced relations between the headquarters and the regions in the Forestry Directorate (FD). Furthermore, the project has contributed to eliminating monopolistic situations by, for example, liberalizing cork sales, promoting timber auction system and has reduced the price distortions in wood sales through better price monitoring. Physical Results 8. The achievement of the physical objectives varies with the type of activity. The lack of experience of the PMU and the FD staff in project management and new methodologies explain this. These are explained in more detail below. 9. Forest exploitation and regeneration. The thinning programme of pine plantations has been realised on 45,501 ha (91% of objective) in 10 Forest Arrondissements. These activities have had a positive effects on the forest stands, they have also had an important social impact by providing employment in rural areas. 10. The forest regeneration programme covered a total of 16,310 ha (76% of objective). The regeneration programme of the oak stands was unsuccessful because the techniques adopted under the project (direct seeding and coppice shoots) were not completely successful. 11. Wood sold by the R6gie d'Exploitation Foresti6re (REF) reached 323,000 m3 in 1994 (objective 260,000 m3/year) of which 52% was sold by auction to the private sector and 48% was processed by FD. However, annual output varied greatly. This is attributed to the variation of access and quality of forest stands sold at auction. The 1994 Report of the REF shows that PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT 3 the degree of mechanization was about 49 % (objective 70%) in the exploitation operations implemented by the FD (including the works done by the small enterprises). The shortfall was due mainly to the thinning operations. 12. Forest plantations. 4,880 ha of mechanized plantations (60% of objective) have been planted on a total area of 6,130 ha including access roads, swaths and fire breaks. The shortfall was due mainly to an inadequate delimitation of suitable zones for planting and delays in finding grazing areas in compensation for areas to be planted. The plantations have been realised on three main areas (Sedjenane, Nefza, Tegma) and main species planted are Pinus pinea (70%) and Eucalyptus spp. (30%). The rate of survival is satisfactory (80 to 90%) and the initial growth is good. Silvicultural techniques seem appropriate and well managed. The expected total wood production within the next 50 years will be around 1,300,000 m3. 13. 2,608 ha of riverine plantations have also been planted along the "oueds" (objective: 2,600 ha). This activity was successful, although some difficulties occurred at the beginning due to technical and land tenure problems. The rate of survival of the trees - poplar, eucalyptus and acacia - and their growth are reported to be excellent. The expected wood production within the next 24 years is estimated at 750,000 m3. 14. Forest management. All management activities of 6,600 ha in the forest districts of El Feidja (Jendouba) and Oum Djeddour (Kasserine) have been done. This component included the construction and rehabilitation of housing and forest stations (9), a research centre and a fire tower; a sociological study has also been started, as well as the preparation of forest management plans; the districts have been supplied with vehicles and equipment; the programme of roads construction (85 km) and rehabilitation (35 km) has only recently been achieved due to the difficulty of obtaining suitable contractors. 15. Forest pasture and range improvement. A total area of about 3,002 ha of pasture have been improved (82% of objective). Permanent pastures have been established on 973 ha (objective: 1100 ha); 1664 ha of natural range land have been rehabilitated (objective: 2,180 ha). Acacias and cactus have been planted on 365 ha. Pasture quality is reported to be currently poor because appropriate forage and range management systems have not been put in place. This partial success is attributed to: (a) a lack of technical capacity of forest staff in pasture and forest range improvement; and (b) local people did not fully understand the project objectives and were reluctant to accept the restrictions on grazing attached to the proper management of the pastures and ranges provided to them. 16. Other activities. The national inventory of forest and range lands covering about 110,000 km2, was completed in 1994. Modem mapping and computerised equipment have been provided. Forest and pasture cover maps (1/50,000, 1/200,000, 1/500,000) are available. The inventory and the development plan for the pasture land were published in June 1995. The forest inventory is complete but the forest development plan has to be finalised and published. This 4 PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT operation should have been completed in 1990 but was delayed mainly due to delays in consultant selection. 17. Nature conservation: proposed activities consisted mainly of support to the regular programme of activities, and this has been achieved. Hunting brigades in all forest arrondissements have been equipped to control poaching and to monitor bird migrations, etc. The premises of three national park have been improved. The proposed mobile extension unit has been placed under a specialised extension agency (AVFA), in accordance with the forest extension strategy. 18. Nurseries and tree seeds collection: some 11 nurseries near to the project plantation sites and urban centres (including two poplar nurseries) have been equipped. The techniques to raise seedlings have been improved, as has the quality of forest plants produced. The Tree Seed Centre has been provided with vehicles and adequate equipment (such as tree climbing sets) and the quality of technical operations (seed collection, sorting, storage and distribution to nurseries) has been improved. Institutional Development 19. The project has provided 137 vehicles (cars, 4-WD, pick-up 4-WD and trucks), equipment and materials in support of forest management, silvicultural operations and nature conservation. Vehicles and equipment appear to be properly used and maintained. 20. The training of staff (46 rn/m) and technical assistance (33 m/m) were provided by agreement with FAO. The agreement was amended and enlarged to recruit experts needed to do the forest and pasture land inventory, and to prepare the second forestry development project. The services provided were satisfactory. Training and expertise were generally appreciated and well organized. However, full advantage of training and technical assistance was not taken because follow-up action was inadequate. It is worth noting that FAO complemented the project technical assistance programme with a Technical Cooperative Project (TCP/TUN (A) 8852) which included priority activities such as forestry economics, wood technology, fire protection and forest education. 21. Under the project a Management Information System (GESFOR) has been established. The system should have been used as a tool for project management but, unfortunately, the project has not succeeded in establishing an efficient monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system. Accurate data and analysis of project activities are still lacking. For example, financial monitoring is weak. Project achievements are not accurately documented, the 1993 and 1994 annual reports were published only in mid-1995, and there is no evaluation done by the Government of the impact and quality of project activities. This shortcoming is attributed to: (a) the poor quality of incoming information from forest arrondissements; (b) the indicators of project activities were limited to physical performance, while the environmental and social impacts were not included; (c) the staff in charge of the M&E was insufficient and not PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT 5 appropriately trained; and (d) at the end of the project, the first and the second projects overlapped, and this placed to much pressure on project staff. 22. An agreement was signed between the project and the National Forest Research Institute (INRF) to support project activities and appropriate forest research and results have been documented. However research programmes were too broad and the budgets too limited. 23. The FD has prepared a strategy for pasture and range development but the forest development strategy is still to be finalised, although these were discussed in a seminar in June 1995. These were prepared exclusively by FD staff but, to be effective, they also need to be discussed with other sectors interested in forestry development. Financial and Economic Results 24. Total project costs are estimated at US$ 40.3 million, 20% less than in the SAR. About US$ 2.6 million, out of the US$ 20 million loan, remained undisbursed and were cancelled. Although the project must be seen as a pilot exercise, whose main achievement has been to introduce more progressive (commercially-oriented) policies and managerial approaches to forestry operations, it has nevertheless demonstrated that managed plantation activities and particularly riverine plantations can (and will probably) be financially viable as the private sector becomes gradually more involved. 25. For now, the public nurseries are being managed more as a means of disseminating improved planting material than on a commercial basis, but the project has resulted in substantial cost savings through the introduction of improved production techniques. These savings, along with the adopted practice by the Forestry Directorate of charging to private entrepreneurs adequate fees and "redevances' for exploiting the state forests, have substantially improved the FD's budgetary situation. 26. The project's economic rate of return is estimated at 9% over 57 years and must be considered as a minimum since it does not include the less-easily-quantifiable social and environmental benefits (Appendix B). Inclusion of such externalities would raise the ERR to about 11%. This rate is somewhat lower than in the SAR (18%), mainly because the ICR assumptions for the production buildup are less optimistic". On the other hand, about 4.8 million person-days of manual/field work were contracted under the project and close to US$ 14 million were paid in daily salaries, generating even more jobs and incomes in the economy through a multiplier effect. if Although more in line with those used for the formulation of the Second Forestry Development Project. 6 PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT Social and Environmental Impacts 27. The project's impact on the population living in the project area has been significant. The most obvious benefits - though very difficult to evaluate - are in terms of the positive impact on the environment by slowing/arresting soil erosion. This, in turn, will lead to increased agricultural production. Activities related to nature conservation have contributed to the protection of the national heritage and have heightened public awareness as to the importance of their environment. Project activities have also improved incomes through employment. 28. The social and environmental impacts of the project will be the subject of a specific study being carried out by a Tunisian fimn. Promotion of the Private Sector 29. The project has been successful in promoting the involvement of the private sector in forestry activities. For instance, some 50 enterprises are now involved and account for around 16% of national wood production. It is estimated that half these activities have been generated through the project, largely the result of the extensive training provided to the enterprises. In addition to increasing the efficiency/profitability of forestry operations, these enterprises are also generating jobs and incomes in rural areas. C. MAJOR FACTORS AFFECTING THE PROJECT Factors Not Generally Subject to Government Control 30. The drought which occurred in 1993/1994 slowed down the plantations programmes; although all soils were prepared for plantations in 1994, part of the area could only be planted in the first half of 1995. Factors Generally Subject to Government Control 31. Difficulties in recruiting forestry technicians in 1991 considerably delayed forest tree marking operations needed for the thinning and regeneration works. However this backlog has since been done. 32. The reform of the Ministry of Agriculture in 1992, which involved numerous transfers of DF staff - particularly the chiefs of the forest arrondissements, had a negative effect on the project. The PMU staff were integrated into the administrative structure of the DF, thus adding to their responsibilities and reducing time available for the project. However, young professionals have since been recruited to augment the PMU and to mitigate the negative effects of this. PART I. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT 7 Factors Generally Subject to Implementing Agency Control 33. The delays in the selection of consultants for technical assistance in forest and range land inventory and for land preparation for the mechanised plantation programme have caused delays in project execution. Procurement procedures took long, and this created delays at the beginning of the project. The under-utilization of the Management Information System established at the PMU also weakened management effectiveness. The planting sites should have been more carefully selected in advance to provide sufficient and suitable area for mechanized plantation or the programme targets should have been reduced. D. PROJECT SUSTAINABILITY 34. The sustainability of many project activities will depend largely on the implementation of the second project. The sustainability of commercially-oriented operations will, of course, depend on their financial profitability. This is likely to improve in the future for three reasons: (a) private enterprises involved in the thinning/cutting (and eventually planting) works are becoming more efficient; and (b) some of the indirect investment costs, especially technical assistance/training, will be proportionally lower in the next phases. 35. Concerning the new plantations, clean weeding is imperative during the first three years after planting until the young trees are able to compete with the natural vegetation. Management plans must be prepared indicating which stands need to be weeded and when. Pruning and first thinning will be done under the second project. Fire prevention and controls have to be particularly reinforced in mechanized plantations. 36. The sustainability of the forest pasture and range improvement operations will be assured by involving the beneficiaries in the maintenance of pastures and natural ranges. A better understanding of the socio-economic environment is also needed and institutional linkages between Forestry and Livestock need to be improved. Revised grazing fees also need to be introduced. Rules and conditions will be developed in the integrated development pilot operations of the Second Forestry Development project. 37. The NIFRL will need to be updated regularly. Financing this operation is justified if the results of the inventory are used intensively by the FD and others interested in improved management. 8 PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT E. BANK PERFORMANCE 38. The project appraisal was satisfactory, and ambitious projections of yields were due to information gaps inherent in a pilot project. During project implementation, close supervision by the Bank ensured that the PMU and FD staff to took appropriate action to resolve problems encountered by the project. Disbursements have occurred more-or-less as scheduled. 39. During the 7-years of project implementation, 19 supervision missions assisted by 9 visits of subject matter specialists monitored and guided project development. A full fledged mid-term review would have been beneficial. F. BORROWER PERFORMANCE 40. Considering the weak condition of the DF at the beginning of the project, the complex and innovative nature of the project, borrower performance has been satisfactory. It is, however, unfortunate that no measures were taken to improve/strengthen the M&E, of the project. The project Coordination Committee met eight times during the project life and played an efficient role in evaluating and coordinating project management. 41. Many achievements of the project can be attributed to the dynamism and stability of the PMU team which remained intact throughout. Project management was able to adapt itself to any unexpected situation and to find appropriate solutions to problems encountered. However, the restructuring of the Ministry of Agriculture in 1992 and the start-up of the second Forestry Development Project slowed the progress over the last two years of the project. G. ASSESSMENT OF OUTCOME 42. The project's outcome has been satisfactory, notwithstanding some shortcoming in field activities, the poor performance of the M&E system and certain social problems associated with pasture development. The progress made in improving the management of the forestry sector is considerable. The project has accelerated institutional changes needed for its development; price distortions and monopolistic situations have been removed; rural people have started to develop an awareness of sustainable use of forest resources; and the forest inventory has demonstrated the need for further investment and improved management. The project has also highlighted ways to exploit and sustainably regenerate the forests and ways to better involve rural populations in their management. 43. Under the second FDP, possibilities of replacing mechanized plantations with labour intensive operations should be explored during mid-term review to provide additional benefits such as employment. However, the case by case decision should be based on a pertinent analysis of the financial, socio-economical and environmental conditions. PART I: PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT 9 H. FUTURE OPERATIONS 44. The second Forestry Development project was appraised (SAR no 11618-TUN) in December 1992. The components of the new project are forest management, mechanised and riverine plantations, forest pasture and range improvement, wood exploitation, national park and reserves, forestry research and institutional development and integrated development pilot operations. Most activities developed during the first project will be continued and consolidated during the second project. 45. Specific activities not covered by the second project, but which should be included, are: (a) the clean weeding of plantations; (b) the determination of a plan and a budget to update the NIFRL; and (c) the finalisation of the forest development plan. 46. Although, the PMU has been strengthened for the day-to-day analysis of technical, financial and social information, project monitoring is still deficient. This situation should be addressed as a matter of urgency. 47. Institutional aspects which should be considered during the planned mid-term review of the second forestry project include: (a) the restructuring of the DF to enable it to take on those activities which the private sector cannot handle; (b) a review of institutional arrangements related to forest range and pasture management; better coordination is needed between Forestry and Livestock institutions to avoid disparities in taxation and incentives for livestock production. 1. KEY LESSONS LEARNT 48. The first Forestry Development Project has made important sectorial advances and has provided a valuable testing ground for new techniques and institutional development. Many technical lessons have been learnt. They relate principally to methods for improving natural and planted forest stands, preparing soil for tree planting and developing pasture and range land techniques. From the institutional point-of-view, the project has improved the managerial capacity of FD. It has also enabled the PMU to deal with procurement procedures, to monitor forest activities (although the operational performance needs to be improved) to plan and budget activities, and to develop collaboration with the private sector. These lessons and experiences have already been taken into account when designing the second project. 49. The key lessons are: 10 PART I. PROJECT IMPLEMENTATION ASSESSMENT (a) Before starting large-scale plantations' programmes, a detailed study providing a full description of the techniques to be applied, the land suitability for planting and the socio-economic conditions should be carried out. Possible compensations should be discussed and agreed with the concerned population as a prerequisite. (b) Where projects are broad in scope and operate in complex socio-economic environments, it is essential to have a strong and efficient project monitoring and evaluation system. However, this system has to be dimensioned in accordance with the existing institutional capability and project performance indicators should be limited in number, but carefully selected to be as meaningful as possible. (c) It is necessary to establish an adequate institutional set-up for the project in order to develop efficient inter-sectoral linkages to deal with the various sectoral issues under the project (livestock, land tenure, rural development and social affairs). Without these inter-sectoral linkages, there is a great risk that the project would be too narrowly focussed and would fail to adequately involve other sectors. (d) When two projects - a first phase followed immediately by a second phase - are overlapping, it is the first project to compensate the supplementary work requested for the preparation and the starting up of the second project. PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEXES PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 1: Summary of Assessments A. Achievement of obiectives Substantial Partial Negligible Not Applicable (W) (W) (W() Macro policies E E7 El Sector policies OEl ED ElO Financial objectives El[ E[i [O E Institutional development El El ]O Physical objectives El [7] El Oi Poverty reduction E L1 E E Gender issues El l El Other social objectives El El El Environmental objectives E El El Public sector management El] El O Private sector development Ol El El Other (specify) ElE El El1 B. Proiect sustainability Likely Unlikely Uncertain () () (V) Highly C. Bank performance satisfactory Satisfactory Deficient () () (v Identification EL O.71 E Preparation assistance El [E] El Appraisal El L71 El Supervision E El 12 PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEXES Highly D. Borrower performance satisfactory Satisfactory Deficient () ( (e) Preparation 7 [ [ Implementation [I] 371 El Covenant compliance [D E E Operation (if applicable) [] 7l El Highly Highly E. Assessment of outcome satisfactory Satisfactory Unsatisfactory unsatisfactory (e (e (e [e PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEXES 13 Table 2: Related Bank Loans/Credits Loan/credit title Purpose Year of Status approval Northwest Rural Development Project Poverty Alleviation 1982 Closed (LN 1997 - TN) 01/02/90 Grain Storage Project Storage and distribution 1982 Closed (LN 2052 - TN) of Grain 12/31/88 Medjerda/Nebhana Irrigation Project Irrigation 1983 Closed (LN 2157 - TN) 06/30/1989 Central Tunisia Irrigation Project Irrigation 1983 Closed (LN 2234 - TUN) 12/31/1990 New Agricultural Production Project Agriculture improvement 1986 Closed (LN 2502 - TN) 12/31/1991 Nat. Irrigation Management Irrigation 1986 Closed Implementation Project 06/30/95 (LN 2573-TUN) Gabes Irrigation Project Irrigation 1986 Closed (LN 2605-TUN) 09/30/93 Agricultural Credit BNT IV Project Credit 1988 Closed (LN 2865-TUN) 12/31/1991 Research and Extension Institution capacity 1991 Closing Date (LN 3217-TUN) building 06/30/1996 Second Forestry Development Project Forest Management and 1994 Closing Date (LN 3601-TUN) Plantations 12/31/2000 Agric. Sector Investment Project Agriculture Development 1994 Closing Date (LN 3661-TUN) 06/30/1999 Development of Mountainous Regions Northwest Mountainous 1994 Closing Date Project (LN 3691-TUN) areas development 06/30/2000 14 PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 3: Project Timetable Date actual/ Steps in project cycle Date planned latest estimate Identification (Executive Project Summary) 18.07.86 Preparation 29.09.86 Appraisal 29.11.86 Negotiations 15.06.87 Board presentation 04.08.87 Signing 28.09.87 Effectiveness 28.01.88 28.04.88 Project completion 31.12.94 31.12.94 Loan closing 31.12.95 31.12.95 Table 4: Cumulative Loan Disbursements FY88 FY89 FY90 I FY91 I FY92 I FY93 FY94 I FY95 FY96 SAR Estimate 1.6 4.5 7.6 11.3 14.6 17.1 18.9 19.8 20.0 Actual 0.0 2.4 4.9 8.9 12.8 14.1 16.6 17.4 17.4 Actual as % of SAR 0% 52% 65% 78% 87% 83% 88% 88% 87% PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEXES 15 Table 5: Key Indicators for Project Implementation SAR key implementation indicators Planned Actual 1. Forest Regeneration - Thinning 50,000 ha 45,501 ha - Regeneration 21,500 ha 16,310 ha - Annual wood production 260,000 m3 > 260,000 m3 2. Forest Plantation - Mechanized plantation 8,100 ha 4,880 ha - Linear plantations 2,600 ha 2,608 ha - Seed collection/nurseries/seedlings various activities 100 % 3. Forest Management - Building constr. or rehab./fire tower 11 100 % - Roads construction/rehabilitation 85 km/35 km 85 km/35 km - Boundary marking and other works various 100 % - Equipment various 100 % 4. Forest Pasture Improvement - Establishment in humid areas 700 ha 554 ha - Establishment in semi-arid areas 400 ha 419 ha - Establishment in arid areas 2,180 ha 1,664 ha - Cactus and acacia plantations 365 ha 365 ha 5. Institutional Development Support - National inventory and development plans - 80 % - Nature conservation/equipment 90 % - Technical assistance and training - Consultant services 43 man/month Satisfactory - Training abroad 100 man/month Satisfactory - Training in Tunisia 750 man/month 810 man/month - Forest Research Satisfactory - Vehicles 139 137" - Other equipment various as needed 6. Labour Employment 12,300 man/year 16,000 man/year Motorcycles have been converted into vehicles. Cars have been converted into small 4-WD. 16 PART 11: STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 6: Key Indicators for Project Operation The second phase - Second Forestry Development Project - will take care of the operations needed to sustain the activities developed during the first phase. However, two/three passages per year of clean weeding are needed in the young 1994 mechanised plantations in Tegma, Bizerte and Beja for the next three years. The river in plantations planted in 1992, 1993 and 1994 need maintenance and surveillance for the next three years. l A plan to update the forest and pasture/range inventory and the budget in accordance should be defined for end 1995 and included in the national programme and budget. Table 7: Studies Included in Project Subjects SAR Target Status Comments Project Management Put in place the MIS Completed Good consultation but no updating. Forestry Extension Prepare a conservation and Completed The proposed strategy is extension/education plan used. for the next 5 years. Tree seed collection and Improve the tree seed Completed Excellent contribution - selection selection program progr. presently assisted by bilateral cooperation. Seedlings production Improve nurseries and Completed Good impact on seedlings production. nurseries management and techniques. Forest Genetics Review genetic studies and Partially achieved Final report not yet sources of selected seeds received. Range Management Assist the DF to improve Completed A manual has been and manage forest range produced but not used and pasture Sociology Analyse land use/human Completed Satisfactory pressure on forest and reactions to forest management Biometry Statistical design for Partially Data collection done but silvicultural experiments achieved no analysis Forest Inventory Full national forest and Inventory completed The first technical pasture land inventory, in 1994. Pasture assistance failed. FAO preparation of forest development plan took over and achieved development plan. achieved - forest the job with a set of plan to be finalised. specialists. PART Il: STATISTICAL ANNEES 17 Table BA: Project Costu (USS ' 000) SAR Estimate Actual EsEumate a/ Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total Investment Costs Vehicles and Equipment pick-ups 478.6 540.1 1018.7 301.7 775.5 1077.2 implements 84.8 79.7 164.5 258.6 831.8 1090.3 tracwrs 424.8 960.3 1385.1 465.8 1187.3 1653.2 cars 959.2 872.2 1831.4 426.9 1092.4 1519.3 other equipment 1332.3 1474.2 2806.5 220.4 681.8 902.3 cartographic equip. 17.5 33.8 51.3 280.1 1191.8 1471.9 morris 59.7 33.5 93.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 consumnables 11.0 22.8 33.8 65.0 52.7 117.7 spare parns 243.7 271.9 515.6 50.7 35.4 86.1 trucks 61.4 87.4 148.8 26.3 110.8 137.2 mnachinery 95.5 127.1 222.6 113.4 98.4 211.8 supplies 468.2 913.0 1381.2 129.2 330.2 459.4 laboratory equip. 37.1 61.8 98.9 61.9 23.7 85.6 Sub-wtoal 4273.8 5477.8 9751.6 2400.1 6411.9 8812.0 Plantations clearing 30.9 27.8 58.7 2427.3 1990.0 4417.3 seeding 7596.4 4897.5 12493.9 2932,4 2635.9 5568.3 soil prep./regener. 2105.7 1681.6 3787.3 4860.9 2795.5 7656.4 tending 5081.0 909.2 5990.2 404.8 314.0 718.7 Sub-toral 14814.0 7516.1 22330.1 10625.4 7735.4 18360.8 Works roads 2817.0 2315.1 5132.1 758.0 83S 9 1593.9 fencing 37.9 19.2 57.1 119.5 313 8 433.4 other works 55.5 48.6 104.1 79.0 68.5 147.6 construCions 213.1 147.1 360.2 668.2 403.0 1071.2 Sub-total 3123.5 2530.0 5653.5 1624.8 1621.3 3246.0 Studies/training/techn,assisL. trining abroad 33.0 296.5 329.5 0.0 361.9 361.9 consultants 564.1 1118.1 1682.2 0.0 940.4 940.4 Sub-toal 597.1 1414.6 2011.7 0.0 1302.2 1302.2 Total Investment Costs 22808.4 16938.5 39746.9 14650.3 17070.8 31721.0 Recurrent Cosrs Personnel engineers 115.9 0.0 115.9 562.0 0.0 562.0 technical staff 945.5 0.0 945.5 823.9 0.0 823.9 support staff 24.7 0.0 24.7 84.8 0.0 84.8 laborers 3281.4 0.0 3281.4 3463.3 0.0 3463.3 Sub-total 4367.5 0.0 4367.5 4933.9 0.0 4933.9 Works roads 471.3 384.9 856.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 constructon 27.9 20.6 48.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub-toul 499.2 405.5 904.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Range Improvement pasture maintenance 484.6 50.6 535.2 307.6 243.1 550.6 tree maintenance 29.2 2.1 31.3 460.0 364.3 824.3 Sub-total 513.8 52.7 566.5 767.6 607.4 1375.0 Vehicles and equipment vehicles 1148.8 1390.6 2539.4 594.9 421.7 1016.7 machinery 840.3 1193.2 2033.5 1115.5 0.0 1115.5 trucks 20.0 28.8 48.8 156.2 0.0 156.2 Sub-Ewtal 2009.1 2612.6 4621.7 1866.6 421.7 2288.3 Total RecurTent rosts 7389.6 3070.8 10460.4 7568.1 1029.1 8597.2 GRAND TOTAL 30198.0 20009.3 50207.3 22218.4 18099.9 40318.3 a/ As of 13/6/95 18 PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEXES Table 8B: Project Financing (US$ million) SAR Estimate Actual Estimate" Local Foreign Total Local Foreign Total World Bank 0.0 20.0 20.0 0.0 17.4 17.4 Government 19.6 0.0 19.6 16.6 0.0 16.6 Net Project Costs 19.6 20.0 39.6 16.6 17.4 34.0 Taxes and duties 10.6 0.0 10.6 6.3 0.0 6.3 TOTAL PROJECT COSTS 30.2 20.0 50.2 22.9 17.4 40.3 As of 13.6.95. PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES 19 Table 9: Economic Costs and Benefits The economic rate of return is 9 % over 57 years (see Appendix C). This rate is satisfactory considering that the ERR calculation, based on a conventional use of present values, tends to underestimate the future value of wood products as well as of any remaining standing trees. Obviously, the rate does not include the project's beneficial impact on the environment, particularly in terms of slowing/stopping soil erosion. This, in turn, will eventually lead to a larger agricultural production than would be the case otherwise. The rate is relatively insensitive to revenue and cost variations. For instance, an increase of 25 % in the revenues would bring the rate up to "only" 11 %, the same level as with a decrease of 25% in the costs. It must be pointed out that 9% is half the ERR estimated in the SAR. The main reason for the lower economic (quantifiable) returns in the ICR is the assumptions made for the production buildup which are less optimistic than in the SAR but more in line with those used for the formulation of Phase II of the Forestry Development Project (see Table 5 of this appendix). Another important reason is the fact that only 60% of the 8,100 ha under the mechanized plantations program and 76% of the 21,500 ha under the forest regeneration program were covered. These shortcomings are not compensated by the 20 % shortfall in the project costs (see Table 8B of Part 2). In addition to the quantifiable economic revenues, there are other benefits which are much more difficult to evaluate. About 4.8 million person-days of manuallfield work were contracted under the project, for various activities such as tree thinning and cutting (for regeneration). Close to D 13 million of daily salaries - equivalent to almost US$ 14 million -was paid for the work, which must have generated even more jobs and incomes (through a multiplier effect) in the economy. Furthermore, the project has been successful at promoting the private sector in forestry. Some 50 small enterprises, with an average of ten employees each, are now involved in forestry activities such as thinning. These enterprises already account for 16 % of the national wood production. It is estimated that roughly half of the 16% has been financed directly through the project since 1988. In addition to increasing the efficiency/profitability of forestry operations, these enterprises are also generating jobs and incomes in the country. 20 PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEES Table 10: Status of Legal Covenants Covenant Loan Agreement (Section) Requirement Status 3.03 Borrower to complete inventory of Inventory ready end 1994; forest and pasture resources (by pasture plan ready and 12/31/90), and furnish to the Bank presented in seminar in June master plans for development of 95; forest Plan to be forest resources. finalized. 3.04 Borrower to sign a protocol with Done on 7/88 INRF for research purposes (by 12/31/88) and ensure that CFPF provides training provides training to DGF and DREF staff. 4.01 Borrower to have project accounts Done for 88 to 94. audited and report sent to the Bank. 4.02 PMU to prepare bi-annual progress Annual reports made for 88, reports. 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94. 4.03 Borrower to furnish to the bank Done for 1994 annual budgets and financial plans for the project 5.01(a) DF and DREF to have operational System set upwith some MIS and cost account system for delay by PMU but not fully the project (by 12/31/88). and adequately used. 5.01(b) DF and DREF to identify (by Being done on a regular 12/31/88) in their annual budgets basis the cost of nationally subsidized program. 5.02 New major investments in forestry In compliance. Monitored by to be selected according to criteria SPN missions. set forth in the program of action. 5.03(a) Borrower to open auctions to all Done since 1988. licensed wood buyers (by 12/88). 5.03(b) Borrower to sell cork through Done since 1990 campaign. auction (by 12/88). 5.03(c) Borrower to determine reference In compliance; required prices and apply them to direct legislation published; sales to wood users starting in implemented in January 1989. 1995. 5.04 Borrower to estimate O&M costs of Costs have been estimated pastures (by 12/31/91) and to (note dated 02/28/92); tariffs devise procedures to recover them. are far from actual costs. Should be addressed during Second Forestry Project. 6.01 Conditions of loan effectiveness Fully met. PART II: STATISTICAL ANNEXES 21 Table 11: Compliance with Operational Manual Statements No significant lack of compliance with applicable Bank Operational Manual Statement. Table 12: Bank Resources: Staff Inputs Planned Revised Actual Stage of IIi project cycle Weeks US$ Weeks | US$ Weeks US$ Through Appraisal n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 48.7 n.a. Appraisal - Board n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 51.3 n.a. Supervision 61 n.a. 71.9 n.a. 56.2 n.a. Completion 10 n.a. - n.a. 12 n.a. TOTAL ... ... ... ... 156.2 ... 22 PART II. STATISTICAL ANNEES Table 13: Bank Resources: Missions Stage of Project cycle Month/ Number of Days in Specialized Staff Implementation Development Types of year persons field Skills Represented Status Impact Problems Identification/ March 1985 3 NA Preparation May 1986 3 NA Oct. 1986 6 17 TM,Fo,Pa,Mec,Eco |Appraisal y Dec. 1986 7 20 TM, Fo, Pa, Mec, Eco, Cn. Supervision Oct. 1987 3 17 TM,Ex,Mec 1 I T Apr. 1988 3 13 TM,Ex,Pa. 2 1 M Jul. 1988 1 5 TM I I M Nov. 1988 1 19 TM I I T May 1989 1 7 TM I I T Dec. 1989 2 11 TM,Cn I I M May 1990 2 13 TM,Ex I I Nov. 1990 3 12 TM,Fo, Pa. 2 1 T Jun. 1991 1 10 TM I I M-T Dec. 1991 2 13 TM,Fo 2 2 M May 1992 1 9 TM I I Sept. 1992 1 NA TM I I March 1993 1 NA TM I I Aug. 1993 I NA TM I I Oct. 1993 1 10 TM I I Feb. 1994 I NA TM I I June 1994 I NA TM I I Oct. 1994 1 NA TM I I Apr. 1995 1 11 TM 1 1 Completion June 1995 3 12 Fo,Eco,Pa. - - Note: Ex: Forest Exploitation; Mec: Forest Mechanisation; Pa: Pasture Management; Nc: Nature conservation; Fo: Forestry; TM: Project Task Manager. Type of Problens: F: Financial; M: Management: T: Technical. NA = Not available because the supervision mission was included in the supervision of the second forestry development project. APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE 23 Appendice A Aide-memoire A. Introduction Une mission du Centre d'investissement de la FAO constituee de Mrs. J.L. Blanchez (Forestier, chef de mission), J.M. Bisson (Economiste) et D. Crespo (Agrostologue) s'est rendue en Tunisie du 12 Juin au 23 Juin 1995 en vue de pr6parer le rapport d'achevement du Premier Projet de Developpement Forestier (PDF). La mission a discut6 des objectifs du rapport d'achevement avec le Directeur Gen6ral des Forkts et a travaill6 en collaboration etroite avec les membres du Bureau de Gestion du Projet ainsi que l'Institut de Recherche Forestiere. La mission a pu visiter diff6rents sites du projet dans les arrondissements de Kasserine, El Kef, Beja et Bizerte. La mission tient a remercier les agents de la Direction Gen6rale des Forets et autres personnes rencontr6es, ainsi que la representation de la FAO a Tunis, pour leur accueil et leur collaboration. B. Le contexte Le Premier Projet de Developpement Forestier (PDF1) a et6 6value en novembre 1986; l'Accord de PrMt a ete sign6 le 28 septembre 1987 et mis en vigueur depuis le 28 avril 1988. Le couit total du projet 6tait estime6 US$ 50.2 millions dont la composante Prt BIRD n 2870 6tait de US$ 20 millions. La duree du projet est de 7 ans avec la date de fm des op6rations fix6e au 31-12-1994 et la date de cl6ture du Pret au 31-12-1995. Un Deuxieme Projet de Developpement Forestier (PDF2) a ete evalu6 en avril 1993. Il est signe depuis le mois de septembre 1993 et mis en vigueur a partir d'avril 1994. Le cout total du projet s'eleve a US$ 148,1 millions dont US$ 69 millions sous forme de Pret de la Banque Mondiale et la NIB-NDF. C. Les objectifs et resultats du premier projet Les objectifs g6neraux du projet definis par le Staff Appraisal Report sont: a) l'augmentation de la production de bois de chauffage et d'industrie; b) I'am6lioration des paturages forestiers et de leur gestion; c) la reduction de 1'erosion et l'augmentation de la r6tention en eau des sols; d) la conservation et la protection de la nature et de la faune sauvage. D'une facon g6n6rale, les objectifs du projet ont ete atteints: la production nationale de bois de chauffage et d'industrie est passee de 125.000 m3 a plus de 260.000 m3 et les plantations comme les travaux d'am6lioration des peuplements devraient apporter a terme du bois d'oeuvre; les paturages forestiers ont et6 am6liores sans toutefois apporter de solutions aux 24 APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE problemes de leur gestion; 1'ensemble des interventions faites en foret participent a la protection des sols; le projet a participe activement au contr6le et a la surveillance de la faune ainsi qu'a la sensibilisation de la population pour la conservation de la nature. Les couts totaux du projet s'elevent a US$ 40.3 millions dont US$ 18.1 millions ont 6te d6bours6s sur le pret. Les aspects sectoriels Les r6sultats sectoriels du projet sont remarquables. Le projet a introduit de nouvelles approches de travail en augmentant la participation du secteur prive dans les activit6s forestieres. En outre, le projet a favorise le d6veloppement de nouvelles techniques telles la preparation m6canique du sol, la realisation d'un inventaire national et la preparation d'un Plan de D6veloppement des Ressources Forestieres et Pastorales, l'am6lioration des paturages, etc, et l'utilisation d'une approche commerciale aux activit6s forestieres. Le projet a cr66 un dynamisme de d6veloppement a l'int6rieur du secteur forestier. Les aspects economiques et financiers Les r6sultats 6conomiques et financiers ne sont pas encore clairement 6tablis. Les premieres estimations montrent que les investissements ne pourront etre 6conomiquement rentables qu'a long terme; le Gouvemement se donne cependant les moyens d'avoir une foret productive et en bon 6tat. En introduisant l'id6e d'exploiter les bois sur une base plus commerciale et de r6duire les couits de production des travaux forestiers (6claircie, production des plants en p6piniere), le projet participe a la r6duction du d6ficit budg6taire pour le secteur. Le developpement institutionnel Le projet a fourni des moyens logistiques importants (v6hicules, mat6riel) comme appui a l'am6nagement, pour l'am6lioration et l'intensification des operations sylvicoles et la conservation de la nature. La formation ainsi que les expertises-assistances techniques ont ete dans l'ensemblejug6es satisfaisantes mais les resultats et recommandations donnees par certaines de celles-ci ne semblent pas avoir ete exploit6es a fond. Le projet a d6velopp6 un systeme de suivi-6valuation qu'il faut maintenant utiliser I plein. Il est n6cessaire de se concentrer a pr6sent sur le renforcement de la capacit6 de gestion du secteur plut6t que sur le d6veloppement technique. Le projet a soutenu une recherche d'accompagnement dont le programme devra 8tre renforc6 et mieux pr6cis6 a l'avenir. Un inventaire sylvo-pastoral national a et6 r6alis6; une strat6gie de d6veloppement pastoral est pr&te; la strat6gie forestiere doit 8tre finalis6e sans APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE 25 retard. Le cadre l6gal du secteur forestier a ete modifi6 mais il demande encore des ameliorations (voir point E). Les realisations physiques Les realisations physiques (operations de terrain) ont des r6sultats mitig6s pour les plantations m6canis6es (4.880 ha realis6s pour 8.100 ha prevus), F'am6lioration des parcours (3.002 ha pour 3.645 ha prevus) et les travaux de reg6neration (16.287 ha pour 21.500 ha pr6vus). Le taux d'ex6cution global est estime a 60-70 %. Les 6carts sont en partie justifies par la nature pilote de ces op6rations. Les programmes d'eclaircie (45.437 ha pour 50.000 ha prevus), de plantations de berges d'oueds (2.608 ha pour 2.600 ha prevus) sont satisfaisants. Les aspects sociaux et environnementaux Les impacts du projet sur les populations vivant autour des forets, sur les exploitants et les industriels du bois ainsi que sur le personnel du d6partement seront evalu6s en meme temps que les effets sur 1'environnement par une 6tude sp6cifique. Cette etude, commencee le 14 juin 1995, devrait remettre ses resultats en d6cembre 1995. La promotion du secteur prive Le projet a eu un impact significatif sur le developpement du secteur prive dans le contexte forestier. Le volume exploit6 par le secteur priv6 par la vente de bois sur pied par adjudication represente 70% de la production totale et atteint les objectifs assignes par le projet tandis que 16% de la production est gen6ree par environ 50 nouvelles unit6s d'exploitation cr6ees dans le cadre du projet. D. Les principaux facteurs qui ont affectes le projet 1) Facteurs non sujets au controle du Gouvernement - La secheresse qui a sevi en 1993 et 1994 a retarde les programmes de plantations mecanisees. 2) Facteurs sujets au controle du Gouvernement - LLa restructuration en 1992 du Ministere de l'Agriculture accompagnee de mutations diverses du personnel de la DGF (chefs d'arrondissements forestiers et agents techniques) a eu des effets n6gatifs sur la realisation des programmes d'activit6s dans les arrondissements. 26 APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE - Le recrutement tardif de techniciens forestiers a retarde les op6rations de martelage des arbres et par suite les travaux d'eclaircie et de regeneration des peuplements. 3) Facteurs sujets au controle de l'agence d'e&xcution. - La s6lection malheureuse d'une societ6 d'assistance technique pour l'inventaire et d'une soci6t6 de travaux de terrain qui ont causes des problemes importants dans l'execution des composantes concemres. - Une utilisation insuffisante du systeme de suivi-evaluation en place qui entraine une perte d'efficacite de gestion. Cette situation est compliqu6e par le fait que la formulation du projet laisse a d6sirer sur certains points comme le montage institutionnel et les aspects sociaux qui n'ont pas ete suffisamment analyses. E. La "durabilite" du projet La durabilit6 des activit6s d'am6lioration des peuplements forestiers du premier projet depend presque entierement de la bonne ex6cution du deuxieme projet. Cette premiere phase a un caractere pilote; elle a tente de fixer ces conditions de durabilite. La deuxieme phase devrait voir l'entreprise priv6e devenir de plus en plus efficace jusqu'a ce que le couit des operations forestieres soit couvert par les ventes de produits. La durabilit6 des operations forestieres sera d'autant mieux garantie que la rentabilite financiere et economique de celles-ci sera grande. Un equilibre entre ces deux elements assure la r6alisation des travaux, l'opportunite d'emploi et le developpement des entreprises privees. Concernant les nouvelles plantations, il est imperatif d'assurer les premiers entretiens durant une p6riode suffisante (3 ans) pour assurer une reprise et une croissance optimum des plants. Ces plantations doivent etre integr6es dans un plan d'am6nagement. Les premiers degagements et 6claircies devraient etre realis6s durant la deuxieme phase du projet. La protection anti-incendie doit etre organisee ou renforc6e dans les zones reboisees m6caniquement. Les travaux d'amelioration des paturages representent un effort important mais il reste encore beaucoup a faire pour assurer la durabilit6 de cette operation. I1 faudra etudier de facon approfondie les conditions socio-6conomiques des populations et repenser les relations institutionnelles entre l'elevage et la foret. Egalement, la structure de tarification de l'usage des diff6rents types de paturages devra etre reformulee. La participation d'organisations non- gouvemementales serait souhaitable dans ce domaine. APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE 27 La durabilit6 de l'inventaire forestier sera assuree par son utilisation et son actualisation. Une planification nationale des exploitations et autres operations forestieres devrait faciliter les pr6visions budgetaires. Une strategie de mise a jour accompagnee d'une proposition budg6taire pour cette activite qui n'est pas financ6e par la deuxieme phase doit etre d6termin6e avant la fin 1995. F. Les principales le,ons du ler projet Une experience importante a et accumulee durant le premier projet dans les domaines techniques (m6canisation des op6rations sylvicoles, valorisation du bois), de gestion (appels d'offre, suivi-evaluation, n6cessit6 d'une meilleure connaissance des conditions socio- economiques, petites entreprises), de l'organisation (BGP) et de la coordination entre secteurs (Comite de Coordination forestier). Les lecons acquises ont deja et6 integrees dans le deuxieme projet. La mission d'achevement du premier projet confirme les lecons prec6dentes et ajoute les elements suivants qui devraient etre prises en compte lors de l'evaluation a mi- parcours du deuxieme projet forestier: - Le Bureau de Gestion du Projet doit 8tre renforc6 pour lui permettre de traiter r6gulierement et pleinement les informations techniques et financieres recues et de les utiliser comme outil de gestion. La mission s'inquiete du suivi-evaluation du PDF2 vu que ce projet est plus important que le premier et vu que te suivi-evaluation du PDFI connait deja certaines difficult6s. Le montage institutionnel de l'agence d'ex6cution devrait etre reformule afm de tenir compte de la vocation commerciale qui lui est attribuee et lui donner une plus grande autonomie operationnelle et fmanciere. Les aspects institutionnels relatifs a l'elevage et aux plturages devraient etre egalement analys6s et refonnules afm de cr6er une articulation fonctionnelle entre toutes les parties interessees dans ces domaines. Les formations et les expertises ne sont pas valoris6es pleinement. Les raisons sont nombreuses, difficiles a cerner. Ces raisons m6ritent cependant d'8tre 6tudi6es s6rieusement pour savoir comment ameliorer cette situation lors de l'evaluation a mi-parcours du deuxieme projet. Les deux projets se concentrent sur des op6rations a haute intensite de capital. Or 1'exp6rience montre que ces op6rations sont technologiquement et sociologiquement peu viables en certains endroits. La mission recommande que, dans le cadre du PDF2, les diverses 28 APPENDIX A: AIDE-MEMOIRE possibilites existant entre les extremes: op6rations a haute intensite de main d'oeuvre et opemtions A haute intensite de capital, soient etudi6es. G. Suite & donner De retour a Rome, la mission va r&iiger le rapport d'achevement du premier projet de d6veloppement forestier. Ce rapport sera soumis a I'approbation de la Banque Mondiale. Les resultats de F'6tude d'impact du projet actuellement en cours seront integres dans le rapport d'achevement de la partie tunisienne. APPENDIX B: FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 29 Appendix B: Financial and Economic Analysis A. Financial Analysis 1. The total project costs and their financing are given in Tables 8A and 8B of Part 1111. The following is simply to give the main assumptions used in the calculations. FD never kept track of the project costs as laid out in Table 8A, mainly because of the absence of a proper monitoring/evaluation system. As a result, all the recurrent costs had to be reconstructed during the mission's visit, mainly on the basis of the staff's best estimates and recollections. The value of the Government's contribution in dinars has been converted into dollars at the average exchange rate of D 0.9413 = US$ 1.00. This constitutes the average of the annual rates, weighted by the respective annual disbursements over the project implementation period. 2. Although the project must be seen as a pilot exercise whose main achievement has been to introduce more progressive (commercial-oriented) policies and managerial practices, it is still worthwhile to discuss briefly the fincial viability of the main activities. As of now, the nurseries are not financially viable because: (a) FD sees them as a means of disseminating improved planting material and, to this end, distributes for free a non-negligible part of the production each year (about 1/3), and (b) the standard price for forestry plants has been D 0.050 per unit until recently, whereas the (direct) production cost was of the order of D 0.150 per unit. Therefore, plant production from the nurseries has constituted a net drain on FD's budget. The project, however, has resulted in reducing the operating deficit through specific investments (see para 4). 3. Table 1 illustrates the impact of the main commercial-type of activities on the FD's budget. The deficit generated by the thinning operations is gradually decreasing through the project's investment period, to D 117 thousand in 1994. This is due to the increasing involvement of the private enterprises which are also becoming more efficient with time. In accordance with one of the loan conditions for the project (Section 5.03c), FD revised upward, in January 1995 (one month after project completion), the official prices for the products originating from the state forests. Assuming that the quantities of wood thinned would be the same as in 1994, FD would then register a surplus of D 121 thousand in 1995. As a result, it is likely that the thinning operations will be profitable for FD in the future. 4. Much of the cutting operations (regeneration/maquis) are carried out under bidding ("adjudication"). Along with the sales of pine cones to individuals (for further processing by them into seeds), the "redevances" constitute revenues which did not take place before and are All the tables presented in this appendix are in French because they were constructed and discused with the Tunisians during the mission's visit. 30 APPENDIX B: FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS almost entirely due to the project; D 413 thousand (355 + 58) in 1994. The financial benefits (deficit reduction) from the nurseries come from the sales of the plants (which was not the normal practice before) and from the savings in the production costs (through the introduction of cement tanks which practically eliminates the need for weeding). These benefits were equivalent to D 256 thousand in 1994. The cumulative cash flow for all the activities covered in Table 1 is positive throughout the project's investment period. 5. Obviously, the project's overall impact on the public finance is negative since the Government's total contribution (net of taxes/duties) was almost D 15 million (US$ 15.9 million). However, the commercial-type of activities, taken as a group, are self-financing and could be individually so if and when the nurseries are managed on a more commercial basis. The important point is that the financial sustainability of the activities is likely as long as FD is given back, through its annual budget allocations, the equivalent of the revenues generated. In the long term, the sustainability would be better assured if FD were given a legal status more in line with its commercial vocation (ie. status of a semi-autonomous entity). 6. Finally, as already mentioned in paragraph 3, the project has resulted in a 1995 upward revision of FD's official sales prices for the products originating from the state forests and ranging from nursery plants, to sawlog and pine cones. For illustrative purposes, the 1995 price raises applied to the product quantities given in Table 1 for 1994 would have resulted in a cash flow increase for 1995 of D 266 thousand (808 - 542). This brings the commercial value of the state products in line with the private market and will reinforce the financial sustainability of FD's future operations. 7. A limited financial analysis of the mechanized and riverain plantations was carried out and is briefly discussed in the Working Paper. The main observation is that the possible financial rates of return for both types of plantations will probably be attractive in the future - ie. well above 10%, considered to be the opportunity cost of capital in real terms - for the following reasons: (a) the private enterprises increasingly involved in the thinning/cutting (and eventually planting) works are gradually becoming more sophisticated/efficient, and (b) some of the (indirect) investment costs, specially concerning the technical assistance/training, will be substantially lower in next phases. Consequently, it is realistic to envisage a situation (relatively soon) where the establishment of plantations will be financially profitable, particularly in the case of riverain plantations where the production/revenues materialize earlier in the inflows stream, with a greater present value. 8. The establishment of improved and permanent pastures was part of the project. Because of the absence of proper monitoring, the information available on the progress achieved under this component is very sketchy. Nevertheless, a number of observations can be made concerning the financial viability of establishing pastures. With the 1995 revision of FD's official prices, the "redevances" for using the improved/permanent pastures are D2.5/head/month for cattle and D2/head/month for small ruminants. This seems to discriminate heavily against the owners of small ruminants since it takes around five heads of small ruminants to graze the APPENDIX B: FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS 31 equivalent (per ha) of one head of cattle. Furthermore, the cost of maintaining such pastures is roughly estimated at D35/ha/year plus the cost of the fence amortized over 10 years (DIO/year). The total maintenance cost would then be D45/ha/year (35 + 10) and could not be recovered with cattle which would bring only a maximum of D30 (2.5 for one head X 12 months) per ha. The financial gap is even larger for improved (non-permanent) pastures. In addition, the "redevances" are on a monthly basis, practically eliminating the possibility of removing the livestock during the month if the carrying capacity is found to be exceeded. These simple calculations suggest that the structure of the "redevances" must be totally reexamined if the establishment/maintenance of pastures are to become financially sustainable, if and when the many technical and institutional problems now being experienced are resolved. B. Economic Analysis 9. Table 2 gives the estimated economic cash flows for the project as a whole, in thousands of dinars of 1995, and the resulting rate of return. The main assumptions are as follows. In the case of wood production; the production estimates are given in Table 3, the economic (import parity) prices used are shown in Table 4 and were calculated on the basis of current CIF prices in dinars as observed in Tunis"1. In the case of almonds and bee-keeping products, the current market prices were used as reliable proxies of the economic values. The project revenues and costs, prior to 1995, were inflated using the composite indexes described in the Working Paper. To take into account the evident surplus of manual/daily labour on the free market, all such labour in the investment and maintenance costs was shadow-priced at the level of 70% of the officially paid salary, the latter being slightly more than 3 D/day. The operating costs, after the investment period, are estimated at 20% of those in 1994, the last year of investment. The replacement costs are estimated at 10% (per year) of the total investments (over the seven years) in vehicles and equipment. 10. The economic rate of return is 9% over 57 years. This rate is satisfactory considering that the ERR calculation, based on a conventional use of present values, tends to underestimate the future value of wood products as well as of any remaining standing trees. Obviously, the rate does not include the project's beneficial impact on the environment, particularly in terms of slowing/stopping soil erosion. This, in turn, will eventually lead to a larger agricultural production than would be the case otherwise. On the basis of the limited information available, it is practically impossible to estimate the opportunity costs of the yields losses due to erosion, flooding and reduced soil moisture, and which have been avoided with the project. However, a recent World Bank-financed study2 demonstrated that rates of return of forestry projects can be substantially higher when all environmental/social benefits are taken into account. For example, in the case of the Bou Hertma region, which covers part of the project I/ Tunisia is already importing forestry products. The foreign exchange rate is not shadow-priced. 2/ Analyse couts-avantages des projets de developpement forestier et de conservation des eaux et des sols, Italeco, D6cembre 1994. 32 APPENDIX B: FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS area, the study estimated at 20% the overall economic rate of return of various selected forestry investments using the conventional method of calculation, and at 28 % using the FORCES-MOD method to capture the non-directly quantifiable benefits (including environmental). The 9 % base rate should therefore be considered as a minimum. 11. The base rate is relatively insensitive to revenue and cost variations. For instance, an increase of 25 % in the revenues would bring the rate up to "only" 11%, the same level as with a decrease of 25 % in the costs. Among the revenues, sales from wood production are the most important and there is a concern that future thinning operations might not be undertaken because of the low-quality/unattractiveness of the resulting wood. A sensitivity analysis was carried out assuming that all the wood from the first (next) production cycle of pine, eucalyptus and poplar for chipwood/poles is from thinning". It is expected that all the project's wood production, afterwards, would decline due to tree stunting in the absence of thinning. Assuming that half the wood from thinning will not materialize and that all wood production will decline by 20% afterwards, the rate of return would still be at an acceptable level of 7%. Assuming that no thinning will take place and that all wood production will decline by 40% afterwards, the rate is 6%. The project's overall economic viability is therefore not greatly affected by future thinning operations, particularly when taking into account the non-directly quantifiable benefits. 12. It must be pointed out that the base rate of 9% is half the ERR estimated in the SAR. The main reason for the lower economic (directly quantifiable) returns in the ICR is the assumptions made for the production buildup which are less optimistic than in the SAR but more in line with those used for the formulation of Phase II of the Forestry Development Project. Another important reason is the fact that only 60% of the 8,100 ha under the mechanized plantations program and 76% of the 21,500 ha under the forest regeneration program were covered. These shortcomings are not compensated by the 20% shortfall in the project costs . 13. In addition to the economic revenues previously discussed, there are other benefits which are much more difficult to evaluate. About 4.8 million person-days of manual/field work were contracted under the project, for various activities such as tree thinning and cutting (for regeneration). Close to D 13 million of daily salaries - equivalent to almost US$ 14 million -was paid for the work, which must have generated even more jobs and incomes (through a multiplier effect) in the economy. Furthermore, the project has been successful at promoting the private sector in forestry. Some 50 small enterprises, with an average of ten employees each, are now involved in forestry activities such as thinning. These enterprises already account for 16 % of the national wood production. It is estimated that roughly half of the 16 % has been financed directly through the project since 1988. In addition to increasing the efficiency/profitability of forestry operations, these enterprises are also generating jobs and incomes in the country. I/ 1998-2003 for pine, 2000-6 for eucalyptus and 2004-9 for poplar (see Table 2). APPENDIX C: ADDITIONAL TABLES ON PHYSICAL RESULTS 33 APPENDIX C: ADDMONAL TABLES ON PHYSICAL RESULTS Table 1. Mechanized Plantation (ha) Prevision l 88 | 89 90 | 91 | 92 93 94 |Total Tegma 800 343 0 27 370 Sedjenane (Bizerte) 4,600 794 923 743 2,460 Nefza (Beja) 2,700 320 650 1,080" 2,050 Total: 8,100 1,457 1,573 1,850 4,880 Table 2. Riverain Plantations (ha) | Prevision | 88 | 89 90 91 92 93 94 Total Jendouba 1,900 140 205 184 400 450 336 1,715 Ain Draham 250 37 158 55 64 103 0 417 Beja 450 52 96 111 96 57 646 476 Total: 2,600 229 459 350 560 610 400 2,608 Table 3. Forest Regeneration (ha) Type Prevision j 88 89 90 91 92 i 93 | 94 | Total OAEK Seeding 4,950 - - 623 823 81 268 342 2,137 Arrondissement: Ain Draham Coppice 2,550 - - 80 340 62 90 155 727 Jendouba PINE Seeding 3,300 1,063 2,957 3,053 1,729 1,597 2,161 250 12,810 Arrondissenent: Le Kef Plantation 700 20 154 65 190 89 95 0 613 Kasserine Total 21,500 1,083 3,111 3,826 3,082 1,829 2,614 747 16,287 140 ha planted in 1995. 34 APPENDIX C. ADDITIONAL TABLES ON PHYSICAL RESULTS Table 4. Thinning Operations (in ha) Previsions Annual Realizations Arrondissemnent Quantites 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total totaWes (ha) . Tunis 880 65 220 290 250 500 250 1 575 Ariana 6 143 998 1 153 1 032 1 273 1 059 1 112 6 627 Beja 3 746 209 527 518 141 784 710 2 889 Ben Arous 1 324 78 149 252 327 315 500 1 621 Bizerte 5 845 153 1 573 1381 1 223 404 300 5 034 Nabeul 3 586 60 845 703 611 831 119 3 169 Jendouba 3 166 114 898 646 458 376 407 2 899 Ain Draham 7 929 825 1 116 1 034 511 1 058 822 5 366 Le Kef 3 194 0 530 755 486 1 413 749 3 933 Kairouan 2 287 156 180 420 367 580 205 1 908 Siliana 8 855 79 1 614 2160 868 1501 1 200 7 422 Zaghouan 3 045 437 431 300 556 894 376 2 994 Totaux 50 000 0 3 174 9 236 9 491 7 071 9 715 6 750 45 437 Table 5. Project Supported Nurseries A. Forest Nurseries: Total Seedlings Produced and Total Seedlings Sold in Nurseries Supported by the Project Arrondissement |piniere | 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Total Prives Total I Prives Total I Prives Total I Prives Total Prives Total Prives Kasserine Kasserine 360,000 30,000 720,000 55,000 755,000 50,000 685,000 65,000 930,000 70,000 650,000 80,000 Gafsa Gafsa 360,000 30,000 800,000 35,000 680,000 40,000 545,000 35,000 560,000 40,000 360,000 40,000 O Tunis El agba 20,000 5,000 22,000 5,000 110,000 25,000 135,000 25,000 150,000 30,000 200,000 35,000 Ben Arous Mornag 120,000 20,000 145,000 25,000 250,000 25,000 195,000 30,000 230,000 35,000 300,000 40,000 Bizerte Mateur 200,000 25,000 255,000 25,000 570,000 30,000 600,000 25,000 920,000 40,000 1,230,000 45,000 I Ariana Borj I amri 680,000 50,000 800,000 55,000 830,000 60,000 690,000 65,000 790,000 60,000 555,000 45,000 Sadkia 0 0 0 11,000 11,000 25,000 25,000 18,000 18,000 70,000 70,000 B. Project Nurseries: Total Seedlings Produced o 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Arrondissement Pepiniere Total Total Total Total Total Total Bizerte Tamera 1,600,000 1,170,000 990,000 1,000,000 945,000 1,630,000 B6ja 450,000 485,000 600,000 730,000 680,000 730,000 Beja Oucchtata 800,000 765,000 1,070,000 1,160,000 121,000 1,060,000 Dmaien 250,000 255,000 360,000 435,000 675,000 455,000 Ain Draham Guelta safra 275,000 325,000 485,000 645,000 460,000 460,000 Majen essef 237,000 51,000 215,000 140,000 190,000 240,000 36 APPENDIX C. ADDITIONAL TABLES ON PHYSICAL RESULTS Table 6. Pasture and Natural Range Improvements I Projection Achievement (%) 1. Permanent pasture of the humid and sub- humid area (before covered with dense shrubs, with a productivity of 100400 FUlha/year) l Area (ha) 700 554 79 l Yield (FU/ha/yr) 2,000 1,500 75 l Carrying capacity (cattle units/yr) 1 0.75 l Duration of grazing (days/yr): Year 1 100 30 l Duration of grazing (days/yr): Year 2 300 60-90 l Duration of the pasture (years) 15 8 2. Permanent pasture of the semi arid area (before covered with a scarce vegetation of shrubs, with a productivity of 100-200 FUlha/year) l Area (ha) 400 419 105 l Yield (FU/ha/yr) 600-1,200 500-1,000 83 . Carrying capacity (cattle unitsJyr) 0.3-0.6 0.25-0.5 l Duration of grazing (days/yr): Year 1 n.a. 0-30 l Duration of grazing (days/yr): Year 2 200 30-90 | Duration of the pasture 15 3-6 3. Improved native pastures rehabilitation of poor pastures 950-200 FU/ha/yr) Area (ha) 2,180 1,664 76 l Yield (FU/ha/yr) 400-1,200 300-900 75 . Carrying capacity (cattle units/yr) 0.2-0.6 0.15-0.45 | Duration of grazing (days/yr) 300 60-120 4. Acacia Plantations Area (ha) 165 87 53 l Yield (FU/ha/yr after Years 3-4) 1,200-2,500 800-1,500 60-66 5. Cactus Plantations . Area (ha) 200 278 139 l Yield (FU/ha/yr after Years 3-4) 1,200 600-1,000 50-83 TOTAL: Area (ha) 3,645 3,002 82 T. Yield (1000 FU) 4,049 2,466 61 BIZERTE -37'oureli 37- ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~As?ANA 'S * - I'Kob SP'~ ~ ~~I R., {; AH .,- , a - , BE.N, BEtA ,, , , , , Y,,,,,, ;\X, X _KAROUS - ti " l~~~~~~~ ~~ SILl$tNA~~ABLJ KA&ERlg;<, ;/) -4--'aA--OU 35 yr KAtRG4At4~~~~~~ YAs (2 M~~~ONASTIR 36- S ; . . /A . j ,;4ONASO M A K4SERINF / ( AlA 1-iDIA~~~~~~~~MHDI S \ X gg~~beti"'; ;- ' ~ /J FX'$A . A.'; / K4SSERS 7< - / ,' S 2 O 7 -35' siASEB) L 35' 34' j - 1,. / - '. \ -k 34BtB~ ) TOZEUR&b \ ' " ' _ sBou zID` / S ( - - - GABES --SFAX \ ~ 4 ,/ 't '.,' 0Hedeyel r.\ AA A ( 25 f 75 GAESAcI KILOMETERS ^-...TOZEUR \ " 34- T U N I S I A 2 _ _ ' j, 3434 TOZEURI A / GASES -- - );GABES ' GKBEGBLLt N' DOSE/LI - .. ( i i ~~~~~ :1E2>EOCtNL 33' TU N I SIA FORESTRY DEVELOPMENT PROJECT TTATAOUNINE 3(' Protect Reforestation - _ ' Sal Lakes A T . r A Forest Management 4t Ports . QA Natore Coosernation --- < Rinees K. > EL lKEF Regeneralton Area t 4 Narsery ! Range Management Main Roads Ri-erine PlantatooIs Cmites and Towns ._ _. rD ~~~~~~~~Governorale Capitals ;e )? jnh,Aici,,i Oak National Capital -4JUNtStA i Aleppo Pne.. Go-eroorae .oandaries ._. - -iniernarional Bonodaries \'.- Esparto Grass - . I O: Giher Forestcrb A L G E R I A L I B Y A c~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~r - -i rr; '3. . 7' . :D.n Sen \ N IG E R C iiA Dr - 8'~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~W>/i IMAGING Report No: 15786 Type: ICR