WATER P-NOTES ISSUE 50 JUnE 2010 Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: 55828 Challenges and Opportunities T Climate Change and Water Utilities he impact of climate change is increasingly important for the design, construction, and maintenance of water sector infrastructure. Aver- Even without climate change, urban water utili- age global temperatures are on the rise, causing ties face operational stresses--those in developing cycles of extreme weather: droughts and flooding countries cope with basic issues of water manage- are becoming common; seawater levels are rising; ment and service delivery, while in the developed and many locations are considerably drier, impact- world they face the challenge of repairing or ing water sources such as lakes and rivers. Ground- replacing aging infrastructure. Dealing with a host water supplies are under stress due to decreasing of pressing short-term issues often interferes with a precipitation rates and increasing extraction rates. utility's ability to plan for future impacts associated Urban water systems must meet the demands of with climate change. expanding industry needs and rapid population growth. Pollution adds to the growing threats to Yet climate change is forecasted to render cur- water resources, increasing treatment requirements rent operational designs of water infrastructure for providing safe water to city residents. obsolete, given that maximum and minimum flow requirements will be exceeded or not met as a result With two-thirds of the world's megacities of extreme weather events or droughts. Planning, located in regions that are vulnerable to the impacts so far, has been based on historic levels of water of climate change, urban water utilities are facing an increasing need to improve the management of water resources and associated infrastructure. Figure 1. Location of Participating Diversifying sources of water supply will become Water Utilities increasingly important whether through the con- struction of new storage facilities, the appropriate and sustainable extraction of groundwater, water trading or conservation, or the use of recycled or desalinated water. This Water Note, based on the input of 20 large utilities around the world presents the perceptions, experiences, and approaches to addressing climate related challenges of urban areas in developing, middle income, and developed countries (figure1). The following P-note summarizes key points of the Working Water Note 24, Climate Change and Urban Water Utilities: Challenges and Opportunities, by Alexander Danilenko, Eric Dickson, and Michael Jacobsen. The document was published in 2010 by the Water Sector Board of the World Bank Sustainable Development Network. Readers may download the complete document from www.worldbank.org/water. WATER P-NOTES availability and consumption, even though climate change is causing important shifts in these patterns. Figure 2. Exposure to Potential Thus, in the short-run, disruptions to service caused Climate Change Impacts by climate are most frequently addressed through unpopular demand management strategies like Decreased surface water quantity rationing and service interruptions, which decrease Increased urban demand for water revenues and increase costs of operation. Decreased surface water quality Increased competition As a result, much so-called planning for dealing for water resources with climate related issues has been ad hoc in nature Changes in watershed vegetation and ecology and not necessarily coordinated, nor based on Damage to water supply facilities sound principles of Integrated Water Resource Man- Inaccurate climate models and agement (IWRM). While improvements do get made planning difficulties More concentrated and earlier to existing systems, more comprehensive planning is water flows needed to address the long-term economic, social, Decreased groundwater/aquifer recharge and quantity and environmental impacts of climate change. Increased agricultural demand for water Submersion of water supply facilities Failure of combined-sewer Reality Based Analysis overflow systems Saltwater intrusion; increased salinity of water supplies In an effort to document current trends and identify Other future requirements for dealing with the challenges 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% of climate change, 20 large utilities participated in the global study highlighted in this Water Note. These were selected according to criteria such as the intensity of the climate risk they face, the size of two common assessment approaches: the top- the city they serve, and their ability to provide data down approach utilizes General Circulation Mod- on the current state of their water infrastructure in els (GCMs) of climate patterns to determine the terms of key indicators (total water consumption, implications for local water systems. It is difficult, operational cost, rates of tariff collection, non-reve- however, for such models to predict the micro-level nue water loss, etc.). The survey showed that: impacts of these global climate models on localized · 80 percent of the utilities had already experi- water catchments, especially since the data required enced severe droughts, and half had endured for accurate forecasting is often incomplete or even severe rain events. The utilities identified their non-existent. The bottom-up approach addresses greatest problems as decreased surface water, that issue: utilities use their own water resource increased urban demand for water (for indus- planning models to assess their critical vulner- trial and household use), and decreased water abilities to climate change. Extrapolating from the quality (figure 2). general findings of climate change research, utilities · More than 30 percent of the utilities raised can identify the likely effects of climate change on concerns about the limited accuracy of cli- their particular situation so they can begin defining mate modeling for their long-range planning, appropriate solutions. while the vast majority of utilities' responses There are, however, inherent uncertainties to climate change have relied on short-term associated with forecasting future water demand in strategies to reduce water consumption, urban areas due to changes in urbanization rates, improve watershed management, and reduce employment, technology, population, irrigation non-revenue water losses rather than focus on and industrial demands, consumer behavior, and comprehensive planning for the long-term con- overall economic development. With this in mind, sequences of climate change. managing future risks becomes yet more important The first step for a utility to meet the water for all medium and long term planning. Inter alia, resource and service challenges posed by climate this applies to the introduction of new technolo- change is to assess the vulnerability and adaptive gies, whether for water intake, distribution networks, capacity of existing systems to its effects. There are household use, or wastewater treatment. 2 ISSUE 50 · JUNE 2010 Utilities Taking Action Many of these options have an inherent value to the utility and its customers, regardless of cli- The key difference between forecasting with and mate change. In many cases it is not a question without climate change is that the latter intro- of whether or not to implement a policy (or a duces fundamental uncertainty into the forecast. In measure), but the degree. response, the participating utilities in this study are · Climate-justified Strategies. Climate justi- responding through unique combinations of mea- fied investments are beneficial only if climate sures (Figure 3). These are covered at length in the change impacts actually do occur and the over- full report, with descriptions of each utility and its all benefits of taking a specific action exceed climate-change activities. the marginal cost (based on a cost-benefit analysis). Undertaking such analyses can serve To help manage this uncertainty, planners are as a major input into the formulation of climate distinguishing between two key types of measures to action plans for short and medium terms. help drive decision-making and build the public and institutional support needed: · No Regrets Policy/Strategy/Measure. Searching for Solutions: Framework The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate for Adaptation Change defines this as "A policy/strategy/ measure that would generate net social and/ From the experiences of the participating utilities, or economic benefits irrespective of whether a two-stage framework for adaptation to climate or not anthropogenic climate change occurs." change is recommended--one that indentifies the risk factors to existing water systems and then assesses the technical and institutional complexity Figure 3. Actions Taken by Utilities of adapting to those risks. Adaptation measures are to Address Climate Change classified by how they respond to five areas: climate monitoring; water availability; water quality and Reduce consumption distribution; wastewater collection; and wastewater Monitor changes to improve treatment and effluent discharge. To screen adapta- watershed Reduce non-revenue water tion measures for potential effectiveness and feasi- (leakages) bility, five criteria should be considered: Strengthen water supply network Reduce Increase reservoir storage capacity 1. Is the no-regrets categorization applicable? Recycle waste water 2. Is the measure controlled by the utility? Rationalize allocation of water 3. Is the level of technical complexity realistic for resources the utility? Improve inter-agency coordination 4. Is the measure financially feasible? Increase water treatment capacity 5. What are the institutional complexities of imple- Climate considerations in utility planning menting each action? Building additional surface connections Climate monitoring is fundamental for every Reuse gray water level of decision-making. It provides the necessary Strengthen combined-sewer overflow facilities data to assess the impacts of climate change as Protect watershed by discouraging well as the effectiveness of the adaptive measures Extracting additional groundwater taken. Adaptation actions should be monitored with Use vegetation to recharge system vulnerabilities defined and a baseline estab- grounwater aquifers Promotecrop mix & efficient lished, so actions and strategies can be tracked outdoor water use over a period of time to assess progress towards Desalinize water predetermined targets. For optimal efficiency, moni- Install flood barriers toring should measure: Move facilities to higher ground · Hydrologic patterns and quality of pertinent Other water resources; 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% · Water systems sustainability; 3 WATER P-NOTES · Demand for water services and the effects of the financing of adaptation, such as risk insurance demand management; for systems and for customers, notably the poor. · Relative efficiency and cost of water utility oper- The implications of climate change may strongly ations and service; and affect the development impact of World Bank proj- · Quality of wastewater operations and monitor- ects in the urban water supply and sanitation sec- ing; and tor. Similarly, climate change can reduce a nation's · Adequacy of existing water treatment. capacity to recuperate economic and financial Building on the regrets framework, the report losses incurred from related impacts. In the short presents a comprehensive set of examples that utilities term, the World Bank is well-positioned to facilitate may consider defined by the technical, institutional knowledge exchange and disseminate emerging best and financial complexity of the proposed measure practices. This will advance the objective of strength- and the extent to which it is controlled directly by the ening urban water utilities' capacity to undertake cli- utility. The various actions are further categorized by mate vulnerability assessments, improve monitoring focus area and include: climate monitoring, water of technical and financial performance, and prepare availability, quality, and distribution, and wastewater viable climate action plans. collection, treatment and discharge. Sample Conclusions: Creating Opportunities Climate Monitoring Technical Complexity Financial Complexity Institutional Complexity Regret Measure Controlled By and the Role of the World Bank Establishing Monitoring System for Climatic Effects Downscaling of the GCM Low Medium Low Medium Low Low No-regret Climate justified National authorities / utility utility Technical Financial Institutional Measure Controlled Water Availability Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret By Resources must be strategically targeted to undertake Demand Management NRW Reduction Low Medium Low Medium Medium Low No-regret No-regret Utility Utility climate vulnerability assessments and utility specific Water Metering Water Tariffs Low Low Low Low Medium High No-regret No-regret Utility Utility climate action plans in order to begin streamlining Consumer Behavior and Low Water Use Appliances Integrated Water Resources Medium Medium Medium Medium Low High No-regret No-regret Consumer / Utility External stakeholders adaptive responses. Care must also be taken when Management Diversification of Water Resources Medium High High Climate justified Authorities, utility and external stakeholders considering climate change and its impact on urban Enhancing Storage Capacity Medium High Medium Climate justified Authorities, utility and external stakeholders water services, that it does not become a justifica- Water Reuse and Desalination Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Adjustment to Operation Below Medium High Low Climate justified Utility tion for overdesigning capital projects and seeking Design Capacity Technical Financial Institutional Measure Controlled Water Availability Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret By unwarranted financing in the name of adaptation. As Aquifer Recharge Using Recy- cled Water High High High Climate justified Utility / External stake- holders the survey of 20 urban water utilities suggests, urban Relocation of Flooded Infra- Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility structure Market Based Instruments Medium Medium High No regret Authorities, utility and water services can strengthen their capacity to imple- external stakeholders Technical Financial Institutional Measure Controlled Water Quality Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret By ment climate adaptation measures, but it will require Protection of the Water Resource Low Low Low No-regret Authorities, utility and external stakeholders that a utility consider how factors outside traditional Integrated Water Resource Medium Medium High No-regret Authorities, utility and Management external stakeholders Technical Financial Institutional Measure Controlled operations (such as spatial development, pollution Water Distribution Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret By Reduce Effects of Weakened Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Surface Crust on the Network control, and solid waste and storm water manage- Adjustment to Operation Below Design Capacity Medium High Low Climate justified Utility ment) may influence service delivery. Technical Financial Institutional Measure Controlled Wastewater Collection Complexity Complexity Complexity Regret By Protection of Sewers from Over- Medium Medium Medium Climate justified Utility flow Adjustment of Hydraulic Systems Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility In preparing for climate change, utilities may to Floods Wastewater Collection Technical Complexity Financial Complexity Institutional Complexity Regret Measure Controlled By consider a number of priority areas, such as: intelli- Reduce Effects of the Weakened Surface Crust on the Network Medium High Low Climate justified Utility gent and flexible infrastructure design and operation; Adjustment to Operation Below Medium High Low Climate justified Utility Design Capacity Relocation of Flooded Sewers Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility technology to monitor and assess efficiency improve- Wastewater Treatment & Effluent Discharge Adjust Treatment Technology to Technical Complexity Medium Financial Complexity Medium Institutional Complexity Medium Regret Climate justified Measure Controlled By Utility ments and demand management; increased uncer- New Effluent Composition Adjust Treatment Level to Dilu- tion Capacity of Discharge Point Medium High Low Climate justified Utility tainty and risk-based project economic analysis; and Relocation of Flooded Waste- water Treatment Facilities Medium High Medium Climate justified Utility The Water Sector Board Practitioner Notes (P-Notes) series is published by the Water Sector Board of the Sustainable Development Network of the Water World Bank Group. P-Notes are available online at www.worldbank. Sector org/water. P-Notes are a synopsis of larger World Bank documents in Board the water sector. 4 THE WORLD BANK | 1818 H Street, NW | Washington, DC 20433 www.worldbank.org/water | whelpdesk@worldbank.org