The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 Implementation Status & Results China China Renewable Energy Scale-Up Program Phase II (P127033) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: China Renewable Energy Scale-Up Program Phase II Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 2 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 11-Oct-2014 (P127033) Country: China Approval FY: 2014 Product Line: Global Environment Project Region: EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC Lending Instrument: Investment Project Financing Implementing Agency(ies): National Energy Administration (NDRC) Key Dates Board Approval Date 29-Oct-2013 Original Closing Date 30-Jun-2019 Planned Mid Term Review Date Last Archived ISR Date 07-Mar-2014 Effectiveness Date 26-Dec-2013 Revised Closing Date 30-Jun-2019 Actual Mid Term Review Date Global Environmental Objectives Global Environmental Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the CRESP program (three phases) is to enable commercial renewable electricity suppliers to provide energy to the electricity market efficiently, cost- effectively and on a large scale. The objective of CRESP Phase II is to support the ambitious renewable energy scale-up program in China with a focus on efficiency improvement and reduction of incremental costs. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Component 1. Policy Support 5.00 Component 2. Grid Integration/Access and Technical Design 5.00 Component 3. Technology Improvement 7.28 Component 4. Pilot Demonstration 5.00 Public Disclosure Copy Component 5. Capacity Building and Investment Support, and Project Management 5.00 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of GEO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status Overview Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 The project became effective in Jan. this year. The Project Management Office (PMO) has been formally established and operational. The team has reached agreement with NEA on the composition of the Project Steering Committee (PSC), to be led by Mr. Liu Qi, vice minister of NEA. A subsidiary grant agreement between MOF and NEA was just signed. A number of activities have been under implementation since the retroactive financing period. During the recent supervision mission, the team has reached agreements with the NEA and the PMO on the work program for 2014-2015, which reflected NEA’s latest priorities on RE development. However, the funding has not started to flow, therefore, disbursement Public Disclosure Copy has not started. Locations No Location data has been entered Results Global Environmental Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target 1. Additional RE-based power generation from Gigawatt-hour Value 0.00 370.00 improved design of the large wind bases (GWh) Date 31-Jan-2013 30-Jun-2019 Comments • It is estimated that improved design of large- scale wind bases could improve their efficiency, thereby RE power generation, by 1.3% due to the reduced wake effect. • The current average utilization hours of large-scale wind bases are about 1900 hours/year; • This will only be applied only to one large- scale wind base of 5 GW by 2015, and all the planned and approved new wind bases from 2015-2019, with Public Disclosure Copy projected installed capacity of 3015 GW by 2019. Additional RE consumption from increased RE Metric ton Value 0.00 1.31 penetration in New Energy Cities Date 31-Jan-2013 30-Jun-2019 Comments • The project will directly support 2 pilot New Energy Cities by FY2015, and it is assumed that the pilot would lead to 3 additional Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 New Energy Cities by FY2019. The govt. is envisioned to pilot 100 New Energy Cities during the 12th Public Disclosure Copy FYPperiod, so this is a conservative estimate on direct impact of the project; • With the support from CRESP II, the RE penetration intotal energy consumption inselected New Energy Cities would increase from a baseline of 3% in 2010 to 6% by 2015. • The average energy consumption in each NewEnergy City is estimated at 8.722 Mtce by 2015, based on the data from the 14 approved New Energy Cities. Annual avoided carbon dioxide emission Tones/year Value 0.00 3.90 reduction Date 31-Jan-2013 30-Jun-2019 Comments • This indicator is calculated from avoided carbon emissions from the two indicators above; • Emission factor is calculated at 0.858 kton CO2/ GWh, based on coal consumption rate of typical coal-fired power plants at 311 gce/kWh by 2019, and at 2.76 ton CO2/tce. Reduced incremental costs of wind power over Amount(USD) Value 1.60 1.50 Public Disclosure Copy coal-fired power plants Date 30-Jun-2019 Comments • The levelized cost of wind power is taken from actual cost of a wind base in Gansu province, which is expected to build additional wind farms on the same site; • The levelized cost of coal-fired power plants is the Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 actual cost of a typical coal- fired power plant in Gansu province. • It is assumed that Public Disclosure Copy cost of wind power would decline by 1.3% due to the improved efficiency, and the coal price will follow the World Bank commodity price projection by 2019. See Box A1 for detailed methodology and assumptions. Reduced incremental costs of solar PV over Amount(USD) Value 11.30 7.00 coal-fired power plants Date 30-Jun-2019 Comments • The levelized cost of solar PV has dramatically fallen since 2010, largely due to lower demand and overcapacity in the supply chain. So this project uses 2010 as the base year for solar PV cost. • The levelized cost of solar PV is taken from the actual cost ofgrid-connected solar PV farms under the first round of concession in 2010. • It is assumed that the cost of solar PV would declineby 25% by 2019, due to technology improvement and improved efficiency. • Assumptions of levelized cost of coal-fired Public Disclosure Copy power plants are the same as above. See Box A1 for detailed methodology and assumptions. Intermediate Results Indicators Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target RE quota policy issued Date Value 20150630 Date 30-Jun-2015 Public Disclosure Copy Comments NA The draft RE quota policy was prepared, and is now under consultations with stakeholders. RE quota policy is listed in the 12th FYPand State Council document. New Energy City policy submitted Date Value 20140630 Date 30-Jun-2014 Comments NA Piloting 100 New Energy Cities is listed in the 12th FYP. Increased penetration of wind power Percentage Value 15.00 generation in Inner Mongolia (percentage of Date 30-Jun-2015 wind power generation in total provincial power Comments NA consumption) Number of Chinese off-shore wind turbine Number Value 1.00 standards accepted by Standardization Date 30-Jun-2019 Administration of China Comments NA Off-shore wind power is still an emerging technology, and in an infant stage in China. It is difficult to reach consensus for off-shore wind turbine standards at this stage of technology development. IEC has issued only one off-shore wind turbine design standard after 20-year efforts. number of RE investment projects supported Number Value 4.00 Public Disclosure Copy Date 30-Jun-2017 Comments NA Data on Financial Performance (as of 12-Jan-2014) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P127033 TF-15769 Effective 27-Nov-2013 27-Nov-2013 26-Dec-2013 30-Jun-2019 30-Jun-2019 Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR14643 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P127033 TF-15769 Effective USD 27.28 27.28 0.00 0.00 27.28 0.00 Public Disclosure Copy Disbursement Graph Key Decisions Regarding Implementation The project became effective in Jan. this year. The Project Management Office (PMO) has been formally established and operational. The team has reached agreement with NEA on the composition of the Project Steering Committee (PSC), to be led by Mr. Liu Qi, vice minister of NEA. A subsidiary grant agreement between MOF and NEA was just signed. A number of activities have been under implementation since the retroactive financing period. Restructuring History Public Disclosure Copy There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Page 6 of 6