90155 July 2014 – Number 128 X1` Impact of Weather Shocks on MENA Households Quentin Wodon and Andrea Liverani1 Introduction: Do households living in climate affected areas in the MENA region believe that changes in climate patterns and their environment are taking place? Have households been affected by extreme weather events, and if so to what extent and which events have had the largest impact? What are the coping strategies that households declare having used, or could be using to cope with climate change and weather shocks? And what are the implications for policy? A new World Bank Study by Wodon et al. (2014) helps in answering these questions. It is widely recognized that MENA will be strongly Table 1 suggests that households do believe that affected by climate change. The frequency and weather patterns have been changing. In the severity of extreme weather shocks is expected to combined sample for the five countries more than increase. Yet, the evidence on how households are three fourths of households declare that rain is more already affected and whether they can cope and erratic, and almost three quarters note higher adapt to changing climatic conditions is limited. The temperatures. Between half and two thirds declare study by Wodon et al. (2014) helps fill these that rain is less frequent today than five years ago, knowledge gaps. It is based in large part on new that the land is dryer or less fertile, that the rainy household surveys and qualitative data from climate season starts later, is shorter, or ends earlier, and affected areas in Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, and that droughts are more frequent. Changes in climate Yemen. The study provides insights on household appear to lead to more diseases in animals and perceptions of, and vulnerability to, extreme livestock, more insects and pests in crops, less water weather shocks. in boreholes, rivers, lakes or streams, more air pollution, more frequent crop failures and livestock Perceptions and Impacts of Weather Shocks on loss, and more soil erosion. Some of the extreme Households: Questions on perceptions of climate weather events associated with climate change such change and its impact on households were asked in as rain storms and floods are however not perceived the household surveys with a focus on events and as more frequent by a majority of households, and in changes that took place in the last five years. some cases, households suggest that temperatures are becoming cooler with more rain, but this is the case only for a minority of households. Overall, 1 while there are differences between households and Quentin Wodon, Adviser in the World Bank Group’s Education areas or countries, there is a clear perception that the Global Practice (GEDDR). Andrea Liverani is a Senior Social Development Specialist in the Urban, Rural and Social climate is worsening. And as shown in table 2, Development Global Practice (GURDR). This MENA K&L Quick extreme weather events such as droughts and floods Note was cleared by Franck Bouquet, Senior Adviser, MNAVP have led to losses in incomes, crops, or livestock for and Charles Cormier, Practice Manager in the Energy and many households in these climate affected areas. Extractives Global Practice of the World Bank (GEEDR). modules on climate change and shocks in a 2009-10 survey. In the survey, 28.1% of households were involved in agriculture, and among those 92.1% said they were affected by deteriorating climatic conditions in the last five years. The most likely shock was decreasing agricultural yields due to inadequate rainfall, reported by 62.2% of households. In a separate part of the survey, over one in five households noted being impacted by recent weather shocks like droughts or floods. Most affected households declared an inability to recover, especially poorer ones. A regression analysis showed that households in the top quintile of wealth were 20% more likely to recover than those in the bottom quintile. In focus groups most respondents noted long-term shifts in climate and attributed declining agriculture to deteriorating environmental conditions caused by changing weather patterns. For crops such as potatoes, wheat, and rice, the results may be devastating: “Rice is burnt in some seasons, because we cannot find enough water to irrigate it” (Male, 36-45 years old, Egypt2). The inability to earn a stable income for crops makes it difficult to rely solely on agriculture as a source of revenue. “The conditions [for] farming are very poor. There’s drought on one hand and the unavailability of the new equipment and poor methods we use on the other hand. … All farmers in this Coping and Adaptation Strategies: What are the region have been affected by drought and lost their yields coping strategies that households declare having (Male, 35-45 years old, Algeria).” In Yemen, used or could use to cope with climate change and Hudaydah residents emphasized the problems of weather shocks? In the five country sample, 60.6% of hot weather and increasing heat waves. Also, households declare that in case of a weather shocks unfavorable crop prices have led some to shift from they have used or would use savings, 46.8% have food crops to qat – more profitable but requiring a sold or would sell their assets, 46.2% asked for a great deal of water: “People there [in villages] work loan or would do so, 40.6% sold or would sell their shoulder to shoulder, but the problem lies in agriculture. livestock, and 36.4% have or would withdraw They have stopped cultivating crops, replacing them with children from school. The proportions of households qat” (Male, 30-39 years old, Yemen). using these coping strategies are higher among lower quintiles which have fewer other means to Additional information on perceptions of the cope. There are also differences between countries, climate, weather shocks, and their impact on especially on withdrawing children from school – in households is available for Morocco via special Egypt most households do not consider this an 2 option. Also, households receiving international In the case of Egypt, the fact that much of agriculture is irrigated means that results, including quotes from the qualitative work, remittances, who tend to be better off, are less likely must be interpreted with care. When farmers are faced with lack to resort to these coping strategies, except using of water, as this quote suggests, this may be related to shortages their savings. The qualitative focus groups also in the allocation of irrigation water which can themselves be due reveal similar coping strategies, such as selling to any number of problems that need not be related to climate change, such as the upstream use of the Nile water by others. July 2014 · Number 128 2 assets, shifting food consumption, and taking afford quality health care and often cannot access children from school to support the household. health facilities. Households were also asked about actions that they Community Level Responses: What about took or might take to adapt to weather shocks and community level responses? Households were asked environmental changes. As shown in table 4, whether to cope with the loss of crops, income or between one in four and one in five households have livestock due to weather shocks or environmental relied or would rely more on stored grains/products changes, their communities did any of the following: and stored water, have sought or would seek off- planting trees or installing soil protection measures; farm work, used or would use more fertilizers or building banks on rivers, streams or small check pesticides, and made or would make a change in banks to reduce flooding; developing new farming technology. Undertaking training for non- infrastructure such as boreholes, wells, irrigation or farm work or changing crop mixes and varieties is roads; gathering and disseminating information on mentioned by about 15% of households, versus only measures to reduce losses in crops, income or 9% for changing the crop/livestock mix. Thus most livestock; taking measures to prepare for future households do not implement many adaptation disasters like floods or droughts; actions to improve strategies. More than four in ten households say that market access for agricultural products or they know people who have moved out of the area handicrafts; and taking action to purchase seeds, due to climate pressures, and 14% say that some animals or farm equipment. In most cases people have moved in, which may generate conflict community action is limited. One in five households over water, land, and livestock. declare that the community has planted trees or taken soil erosion measures, and one in seven mentioned purchasing seeds, animals or farm equipment. Other actions are mentioned by one in ten households or less. Government Engagement: Similar questions were asked about government support, with in addition questions about the availability of transfers and social protection programs, such as cash or food for work programs, cash for food during floods and droughts, and provision of drinking water, skills The qualitative data suggest that residents often rely training programs, credit during crop losses, on each other to cope and adapt: “Rural residents are improvements in market access through willing to pay [give] half of what we have to help others. If transportation, and price support for crops when I have 10 pounds, I will pay 5. If I have 100 pounds, I will prices are low. Except for the provision of drinking pay 50. This is how the social norms work here. We are all water, which is probably less related to weather one family” (Male, 36-45 years old, Egypt). Yet shocks and climate change than many other solidarity does not always work, and conflicts over potential responses included in the questionnaire, natural resources occur due to changes in climate. In the government involvement in and support for Yemen rural residents worried that water scarcity adaptation strategies was limited as well. For most has led to conflict over access to wells. One Yemeni programs, only about one in ten households woman described a water distribution scheme declared that the government has been active. where water is distributed to certain communities on certain days of the week. For farmers in all five The fact that community and government programs countries, living in impoverished rural areas is not to help households cope with weather shocks and only financially difficult, but also has negative adapt to climate change are the exception rather impacts on health, a concern mentioned in Egyptian than the rule was also a conclusion of the qualitative focus groups. Farmers may be increasingly exposed work. When asked about such programs, to contaminated water because waste leaks into respondents said that they were aware of only very irrigation canals. Others mention being sick and few programs and organizations geared to assist the with limited income, many households cannot rural poor affected by climate change. Participants July 2014 · Number 128 3 suggested areas where government could help, i.e. livelihoods by changing weather patterns. The the provision of agricultural inputs or loans to populations in the study perceive a lack of effective purchase machinery. Job training and improved government interventions to address the impact of employment opportunities were also mentioned. Yet weather shocks, and collective action solutions do some respondents, especially in Yemen, were not seem to work. The gap in the public provision doubtful that government program would bear fruit, and financing of adaption interventions leaves due to corruption and distrust. individuals and communities alone in making choices and decisions. Although this leaves space for Conclusion and Policy Implications: Decision private initiatives, it also leaves households and making for climate change adaptation requires first communities vulnerable to forms of uncoordinated assessing climate risks, impacts, and opportunities action that may lead to conflict and maladaptation. for action before prioritizing policies and projects, implementing responses, and monitoring outcomes. MENA governments should be encouraged to adopt The study reviewed in this note falls within the first and expand the coverage of their social protection of these steps: it seeks a better understanding of and safety net programs. The coverage of those perceptions of climate change, environmental programs appears very thin in the areas surveyed, degradation, and extreme weather events, their and is insufficient to protect households from impact on households, and the strategies used by weather shocks. Investments in safety net systems households to cope and adapt (the study also looked could have immediate pay-offs in the short-run and at the impact of weather shocks on migration, also in the long-run when consequences of climatic discussed in a separate Quick Note). Quantitative change become even more severe. It is important to and qualitative data collection was undertaken in highlight that the design, coverage and placement of climate-affected areas in five countries. safety net programs would not only help reduce the negative consequences of climate change; safety nets The analysis suggests that most households perceive should also be seen as an integral part of the broader important climatic changes. The coping and strategy for poverty reduction and urbanization. adaptation strategies used by households to deal They should help provide portable skills and human with shocks can be diverse, including migration, capital to those that need them the most in climate selling assets and taking other emergency measures, affected area. These recommendations on safety nets as well as changing sources of livelihoods such as are not specific to climate-induced weather shocks, crops, livestock production, and off-farm work but they do matter in this context as well as more among others. Yet many households do not appear generally. to be able to use most of these strategies, and the extent to which they benefit from community and References government programs and initiatives to help cope Wodon, Q., A. Liverani, G. Joseph, and N. with weather or environmental changes is limited. Bougnoux, editors, 2014, Climate Change and Migration: Evidence from the Middle East and North Affected communities call for more government Africa Region , World Bank Study, Washington, DC: action to help with coping and adaptation. The World Bank. Households in vulnerable rural areas are seriously [The other references mentioned in this note are affected by climate change and weather shocks, and available as individual chapters in the above study.] the extent to which they are able to cope and adapt to these shocks is limited. The cost of climate change Contact MNA K&L: and weather shocks is already felt today by many Gerard A. Byam, Director, Strategy and Operations. MENA rural households. They are essentially left on their Region, The World Bank. Preeti Ahuja, Manager, MNADE own in the absence of strong community responses Regional Quick Notes Team: and government programs. While the study did not Omer Karasapan, and Mark Volk provide a cost-benefit analysis assessing which types Tel #: (202) 473 8177 of programs might help households the most in The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize lessons learned from MNA and other Bank Knowledge and Learning activities. The rural sending areas, it does demonstrate the need for Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its more assistance to help households cope and adapt, board or its member countries. given the substantial damage already caused to July 2014 · Number 128 4