WWataer Ptaeperrs Papers INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE Greenhouse Gases from Reservoirs Caused by Biochemical Processes Rikard Liden April 2013 Water Papers are published by the Water Unit, Transport, Water and ICT Department, Sustainable Development Vice Presidency. Water Papers are available online at www.worldbank.org/water. Comments should be e-mailed to the authors. Approving Manager Julia Bucknall, Sector Manager, TWIWA Contact Information This paper is available online at http://www.worldbank.org/water. Authors may also be contacted through the Water Help Desk at whelpdesk@worldbank.org. Disclaimer – World Bank © 2013 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. 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For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center, Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA, telephone 978-750-8400, fax 978-750-4470, http://www.copy-right.com. All other queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA, fax 202-522-2422, e-mail pubrights@worldbank.org. Acknowledgments This technical note was prepared by Rikard Liden, Senior Hydropower Specialist, TWIWA, World Bank. The note has benefited from a thorough review process, which refined its focus and content, and which included invaluable input from the wide-ranging knowledge of staff across the World Bank. The reviewers and contributors were Julia Bucknall, Sector Manager, TWIWA; Vivien Foster, Sector Manager, SEGEN; Harvey van Veldhuizen, Lead Environmental Specialist, OPCOR; Jean-Michel Devernay, Chief Technical Specialist for Hydropower, TWI; Alessandro Palmieri, Lead Dam Specialist, TWIWA; Marcelino Madrigal, Senior Energy Specialist, SEGEN; Sameer Akbar, Senior Environmental Specialist, ENV; and Rama Chandra Reddy, Senior Carbon Finance Specialist, ENVCF. Useful comments were received from a large number of experts, among them Daryl Fields, Senior Water Resources Specialist, ECSAR; Mohinder Gulati, Sector Leader, ECSSD; Wendy Hughes, Lead Energy Economist, SEGES; Mudassar Imran, Senior Energy Economist, SEGEN; Sunil Khosla, Lead Energy Specialist, ECSEG; Masami Kojima, Lead Energy Specialist, SEGEI; Stephen Lintner, Senior Advisor, OPSOR; Robert Montgomery, Lead Environmental Specialist, LCSEN; Jari Vayrynen, Senior Environmental Specialist, ECSEG; and Leiping Wang, Lead Energy Specialist, SASDE. Katherin Golitzen provided editorial support. The International Hydropower Association provided guidance on reference literature and statistics on GHG emissions from reservoirs. The development of the technical note has been supported by the Water Partnership Program. Acronyms v Executive Summary vii 1. Purpose and Application of this Technical Note 1 2. Basic Overview of Greenhouse Gases from Reservoirs 3 2.1 The CO2 Cycle in a River Basin .3 2.2 Gross and Net Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases 5 2.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Vary with Time 6 3. Results from Conducted Research 7 3.1 Geographic and Temporal Distribution 7 3.2 Findings on Main Processes 7 3.3 Findings on Measurements of Gross Emissions 8 3.4 Results put into a Global Perspective 10 3.5 Future Results and Expected Outputs 11 4. Categorization of Reservoirs Based on GHG Emission Potential 13 5. Recommendations for Preparing Dam Projects 23 5.1 Qualitative Assessment of GHG Emission Potential 23 5.2 Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Net GHG Emissions 26 6. Updating of this Technical Note 29 Glossary 31 Bibliography and References 35 Annex 1: Conversions of GHG Units and CO2 Equivalents 45 Annex 2: Illustration of Main Processes and Parameters 47 Annex 3: Detailed Steps for Tier 1 Estimation of GHG from Reservoirs 49 CONTENTS AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use CDM Clean Development Mechanism CH4 Methane CO2 Carbon Dioxide DOC Dissolved Organic Carbon EIA Environmental Impact Assessment FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GHG Greenhouse Gas GWP Global Warming Potentials ICOLD International Commission on Large Dams IEA International Energy Agency IHA International Hydropower Association IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kWh Kilowatt Hour MW Megawatt N2O Nitrous Oxide UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization WWF World Wildlife Fund Acronyms A decade ago, the contribution of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from reservoirs was estimated to be up to 7 percent of global GHG emissions from all sources. Much research on GHG emissions from reservoirs has subsequently been conducted and recent studies have indicated corresponding global estimate to be less than 1 percent. However, these studies still have a limited coverage of ecosystems and geographic areas, and, more critically, almost none of them have measured the long-term change in GHG emissions over many years. Therefore, the research conducted to date has shown disparity in GHG emission magnitudes from reservoirs, which has caused a debate on methodologies and reliability of results. The purpose of this note is to provide interim guidance to World Bank staff on how to assess GHGs from reservoirs in preparation for dam infrastructure projects. The note describes the major biochemical processes that cause GHGs from reservoirs, provides the status of current knowledge and research, and puts the issue into a global perspective. Based on the state-of-the-art, it makes recommendation on how to assess GHG emissions and how to make preliminary rough estimates of emissions caused by biochemical processes for planned reservoirs. A fundamental concept for accurate description of GHGs from reservoirs created by biochemical processes is the difference in gross and net fluxes. Rivers are major conveyances of carbon from terrestrial areas to lakes and the sea. Terrestrial areas generally are net carbon sinks and aquatic systems are net carbon emitters. Changes in GHG fluxes to the atmosphere because of an introduction of reservoirs in a river system must therefore be viewed from a catchment perspective. Net GHG emissions created by the reservoir are the difference between total fluxes for the whole river basin before and after the reservoir is constructed. The results from and understanding of gross GHG emission measurements during the last 15 years have led to the following key conclusions in regard to assessment of reservoirs: ?? Reservoirs with significant GHG emissions are associated with high methane (CH4) emissions because of the gas’s strength as GHGs. Executive Summary ?? The likelihood of significant GHG emissions, especially CH4, increases with the number of variables contributing to GHG emission that work in combination. No single variable, for example, latitude or reservoir size, should be used on its own to estimate GHGs from a specific reservoir. ?? The key for assessing GHG emissions lies in understanding the availability of carbon stock and the reservoir’s water quality conditions, especially the temporal and spatial extent of anoxic conditions. For dam infrastructure projects with significant inundation for which the World Bank may provide financing, studying biochemically generated GHGs from the reservoirs is recommended as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment. The purpose of including studies of potential GHG emissions from reservoirs as part of the EIA is to enable comparison of alternative design options within the framework of the investment project. Current science only permits a crude comparison of alternatives. The assessment of biochemically generated GHGs from the reservoir is recommended to follow a stepwise process to evaluate the supply of carbon stock and the reservoir’s condition to create and release GHGs: 1. Does the reservoir have the capacity to create large carbon stock (amount of flooded organic matter, inflowing organic matter, and organic matter produced in the reservoir)? If the carbon stock is small, Global Warming Potential (GWP) is likely negligible. 2. Does the reservoir have the capacity to convert the organic matter to GHGs and, if so, to what type? If the physical conditions disfavor decomposition of organic matter, and especially do not favor creation of CH4 and N2O, GWP is likely negligible. 3. Does the reservoir have the capacity to release the created GHGs into the atmosphere? If the pathways of CH4 and N2O to the atmosphere are few and if the physical conditions favor transformation of these to CO2 before emission, GWP is likely negligible. For dam infrastructure projects with estimated potentially significant GHG emissions, streamlined post-implementation monitoring of GHGs from the reservoir and immediate river stretch downstream is recommended to confirm the order of magnitude of the estimated emission potential. The purpose of such monitoring is not to provide a complete estimation of net GHG emissions but to make a rough comparative analysis of gross emissions with previous results from reservoirs in similar environments. For dam infrastructure projects with estimated potentially significant GHG emissions for which the World Bank may provide financing, it is further encouraged to investigate possibilities to support from Trust Funds detailed measurements to enhance research on biochemical GHG emissions from reservoirs. In such cases, both pre- and post-impoundment measurements would enable estimation of net emissions in accordance with the guidelines of UNESCO/IHA and IEA Hydro Annex XII. Biomass removal should be carefully assessed before being used as a default mitigation measure for preventing GHGs. The positive effect on GHG emissions of biomass removal depends on which vegetation is cleared and how this biomass is treated after removal. viii INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 1 Purpose and Application of this Technical Note This note aims to provide interim guidance to World Bank staff on how to assess greenhouse gases (GHGs)1 from reservoirs in preparation for dam infrastructure projects. The technical note is limited to the GHGs resulting from the biochemical processes that are initiated when a river is dammed and the area upstream is flooded. Such GHG emissions are a vital part of GHG accounting for projects involving reservoirs (such as hydropower storage dams) and the note thus provides input to the World Bank’s methodology for estimating carbon footprints.2 The note does not include guidance on direct or indirect emissions associated with the construction and operation of dams or the counterfactual scenario for alternative development projects. It must be understood that GHG emissions from reservoirs are a recent area of research. During the last decade, research has significantly improved our knowledge and understanding. However, these studies have been conducted in a rather narrow range of ecosystems and geographic areas, and, more critically, almost none of them have measured the long-term change in emissions over many years. Therefore, it should be no surprise that research conducted to date has shown disparity in GHG emission magnitudes from reservoirs, which has caused a debate on methodologies and reliability of results (see, for example, Cullenward and Victor 2006). World Bank staff therefore must take care in applying this note within the recommended bounds of their use, and be very clear and frank in discussing the uncertainties still underpinning the science. This technical note describes the major biochemical processes causing GHGs from reservoirs, provides the status of current knowledge and research, and puts the issue into a global perspective. It makes recommendations based on the state-of-the-art on how to assess GHG emissions and how to make preliminary rough estimates of emissions caused by biochemical processes for planned reservoirs. The aim is to create a short and concise note written in easily understandable, not overly technical language covering the most important and relevant facts relating to GHGs from reservoirs. Due to the complexity of the dynamic physical, chemical, and biological processes, this means that not all scientific and detailed information is described and some processes are simplified. For further details and in depth description, the reader should study the key references found in the Bibliography and References section. 1 See the Glossary on page 31. 2 Draft Guidelines for GHG Accounting for Hydropower (in progress). This technical note has interim status. The reason for this status is that, although there is an urgent need for clear guidelines for practitioners, there are ongoing research programs that will, within a few years, further clarify this subject. Preparation of the present text is a response to requests from practitioners for guidelines until the scientific process can deliver improved methodologies that will produce results in which decision makers can have greater confidence. INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 2 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 2 Basic Overview of Greenhouse Gases and Reservoirs 2.1 The CO2 Cycle in a River Basin Any change of land use and/or change of the natural cycles of water and energy will affect interaction between the terrestrial, aquatic, and atmospheric environments and therefore have an effect on GHGs. When a river is dammed, the flow dynamics are changed, riverine sediment and organic material are trapped, and terrestrial ecosystems are flooded. This alters the previous cycle and fluxes of carbon dioxide and other GHGs within the project footprint. The main GHGs that may be emitted from a reservoir are carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O). CH4 and N2O are stronger than CO2 and may be important even if emitted in smaller amounts. To account for the different Global Warming Potentials (GWP) of GHGs, the combined emissions of CO2, CH4, and N2O are expressed as CO2 equivalents.3 Because the three different GHGs have different lifespans in the atmosphere, a specific period needs to be set, normally 100 years. According to IPCC,4 to obtain CO2 equivalents for a 100-year period, the quantities of CH4 produced should be multiplied by 25 and N2O by 298. To understand the effects of reservoirs on GHGs it is essential to understand the main processes in the cycle of CO2 and other GHGs in a river basin. ?? Atmospheric CO2 is taken up by plants through photosynthesis but is in parallel lost through respiration to the atmosphere either directly from vegetation or through decomposition of dead organic matter. The balance of these CO2 fluxes creates the growth of biomass (live or dead) in the terrestrial ecosystem, contributing to the biomass carbon pool. The live biomass, and thus carbon, may be removed, for example, through harvesting or fires (manmade or natural), and are in these cases (eventually) fed back to the atmosphere mainly as CO2. ?? The dead organic matter, which has not been directly decomposed or respired, is eventually absorbed into the soil or transported to the river through rainfall and overland flow. Carbon is thus either stored in the soil or transported out of the terrestrial ecosystem to the riverine ecosystem as part of the erosion process. Carbon can also be leached from the dead organic material or soil and enter the river systems directly. 3 See Annex 1 for conversion between units and CO2 equivalents. 4 See the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). ?? In rivers and lakes (with or without reservoirs) carbon can be leached from the bed sediment to the water phase and the dissolved CO2 can be lost to the atmosphere at the surface. As part of the aquatic ecosystem, CO2 from the atmosphere or dissolved in the water can also be consumed by algae, phytoplankton, and zooplankton that will later decay and create new dead organic material that adds to the bed sediments. ?? CH4 is mainly created under anoxic conditions (no oxygen available) in the soil or the bed sediments of a water body. Such conditions often occur at the bottom of flooded areas, especially if the water column is strongly stratified on a seasonal basis. CH4 can be produced to varying degree in all types of water bodies. If released to the water column as dissolved CH4, it is either oxidized (and thus transformed to dissolved CO2) or, if there is lack of oxygen in most of the water column, it is lost directly as CH4 to the atmosphere. CH4 may also be transported up through the water column and into the atmosphere in gas form through bubbling. ?? N2O is in some circumstances created as a by-product of nitrification under aerobic conditions, or denitrification under anaerobic conditions. Creation of N2O therefore mainly occurs in riparian zones of water bodies, where saturation varies with water levels. The construction of a dam and impoundment of a reservoir creates an alteration in the GHG cycle. This means there will be a change in flux of GHGs to the atmosphere compared with the situation before the reservoir was created. ?? The reservoir area changes from the previously terrestrial system into an aquatic system, thereby changing the conditions for interactions of GHGs with the atmosphere for this area. ?? Following inundation, it creates conditions for decomposing vegetation in the flooded area, changing the amount of GHGs released to the atmosphere from the reservoir area or in downstream rivers when the water is discharged. ?? The reservoir may provide for seasonal growth and decomposition of vegetation in the drawdown zone, resulting in released GHGs to the atmosphere. ?? It may provide anoxic conditions for creating CH4 instead of CO2, especially if the water column is seasonally stratified. ?? It partially traps riverine organic material and nutrients transported in the river system, and may thereby change the circumstances under which they are transformed into GHGs compared to where they would have otherwise been carried further down the river system (in a natural lake, wetland, or ocean). ?? Organic matter may be buried in the reservoir bed sediment thus providing a carbon sink. In a reservoir, the flooded and inflowing carbon will thus be exported to the atmosphere, stored in the bed sediments, or transported further down the river system. These three processes occur in parallel in varying degrees, depending on the topographical, geological, and climatological conditions, and the biological configuration of the water body. 4 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 2 2.2 Gross and Net Fluxes of Greenhouse Gases A fundamental concept for accurate description of GHGs from reservoirs created by biochemical processes is the difference in gross5 and net fluxes. Rivers are major conveyances of carbon from terrestrial areas to lakes and the sea. Terrestrial areas generally are net carbon sinks and aquatic systems are net carbon emitters. Changes in GHG fluxes to the atmosphere because of an introduction of reservoirs in a river system must therefore be viewed from a catchment perspective. Net GHG emissions created by the reservoir are the difference between total fluxes of CO2 equivalents for the whole river basin before and after the reservoir is constructed. Reservoirs are one of many anthropogenic influences on the biochemical GHG cycle in a river basin. Sources of carbon for a reservoir are normally both natural (e.g., vegetation) and anthropogenic (e.g., inflow of organic matter from untreated sewage or flooded waste deposits). Changes in GHG fluxes due to the introduction of a reservoir must therefore also be considered from the perspective of artificial influences already in place in the river catchment. In 2011, the IPCC defined biochemically generated net emissions from reservoirs as gross emissions minus pre-impoundment emissions and minus unrelated anthropogenic sources (IPCC 2011). Unrelated anthropogenic sources would be, for example, upstream industries or untreated sewage systems. This definition is used in this interim technical note. The net emission of GHGs from the introduction of a reservoir is limited to the processes in which the changes create net increase in CO2-equivalent fluxes to the atmosphere. The main biochemical processes that may contribute to increased net GHG emissions as a result of building a reservoir are: ?? decomposition of a part of the flooded biomass and organic matter in soil in the reservoir area causing either CO2 or CH4 emissions, ?? removal of forest areas (corresponding to the flooded area) that would have been absorbing carbon, ?? creation of an aquatic ecosystem that traps inflowing carbon and transforms it to atmospheric CO2 equivalent to a higher degree than if it had been transported further downstream, and ?? seasonal growth and decomposition of shrubs and grasses in the drawdown zone. The main biochemical processes that may contribute to decreased net GHG emissions to the atmosphere as a result of creating a reservoir are: ?? creation of an aquatic ecosystem that sequesters CO2 via photosynthesis by algae and aquatic plants, and ?? creation of a sediment trap that buries inorganic and organic carbon in the bed sediment. The net emissions described above refer only to the processes involved in the change of GHG fluxes due to the introduction of a reservoir in a river system. In a complete lifecycle emission assessment for a project involving a reservoir, the baseline must be set according to alternative future scenarios (such as when hydropower replaces thermal power) and include emissions related to the implementation of the entire project (for example, including emissions for construction projects). 5 Gross emissions for reservoirs are defined as the emissions observed from the reservoir surface and the immediate river stretch downstream of the reservoir. Basic Overview of Greenhouse Gases and Reservoirs 5 2.3 Greenhouse Gas Emissions Vary with Time GHG fluxes vary over time from both terrestrial and aquatic systems. ?? Gross GHG emissions from reservoirs and all water bodies vary considerably in the short term (seasonally) since the physical, biological, and chemical processes depend on external variables such as temperature, inflow rate, water depth, and wind. ?? GHG emissions from new aquatic systems created by reservoirs will also change in the long term as the flooded organic material is decomposed and as biochemical conditions change. Upon inundation, easily decomposed organic matter decays, causing initially high gross emissions. As this matter is depleted, the gross emission rates depend increasingly on readily decayed material being transported into the reservoir from inflowing rivers. ?? The growth of biomass for the flooded terrestrial system depends on the age and type of vegetation. Typically, young forests are efficient sinks of CO2, whereas mature forests are close to equilibrium, where absorption through photosynthesis is close to the losses through respiration and erosion. Nonforest ecosystems have a roughly constant carbon stock. The effect of CO2 sinks lost by removing terrestrial systems thus varies depending on original forest growth rate and land use practices that would have been applied for the flooded areas if the reservoir was not built. All of these changes over time must be considered when estimating GHG emissions caused by the creation of a reservoir. IPCC recommends expressing a GHG as average emissions over a reservoir’s lifecycle, which is normally set to 100 years. 6 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 3 Results from Conducted Research 3.1 Geographic and Temporal Distribution Research on GHGs from reservoirs is a relatively new science, and most studies have been conducted in the last 15 years without standard methodology. The past two to three years have seen more frequent publications, which have contributed to a better understanding. Scientific publications can in principle be divided into two types. ?? measurements of GHGs in the sediments and water phase as well as gross emission from the reservoir surface area and downstream river, and ?? interpretation and up-scaling of measured emissions to estimate GHGs and GWP caused by reservoirs. The geographical location of the studied reservoirs is not well distributed. Most studies are located in tropical and subtropical areas of South America or in cold continental areas of North America and Europe. Relatively few measurements at reservoirs in Africa and Asia have been made. Very few studies so far have attempted to estimate a reservoir’s net GHG fluxes. 3.2 Findings on Main Processes The main findings expressed in scientific publications6 on processes and GHG pathways are summarized below.7 ?? Flooded vegetation and litter in a reservoir is only partially decayed. Smaller vegetation and labile (easily decayed) organic matter in the soil is easily decomposed and starts to decay immediately as inundation occurs, whereas the tree trunks remain for many decades. Research, although limited to a few reservoirs, indicates that even in old reservoirs, less than 50 percent of the flooded vegetation has been decayed (Abril et al. 2005, Campo and Sancholuz 1998). 6 See the Bibliography and References, beginning on page 35. 7 Illustrations of main GHG processes and parameters affecting GHG emissions are given in Annex 2. ?? The two most important parameters affecting the type and amount of GHGs produced in a reservoir are water temperature and dissolved oxygen concentration. Temperature directly influences the decomposition rate of organic matter and significant CH4 production only occurs under anoxic conditions. Strong seasonal stratification due to temperature differences between surface and deeper water and poor vertical mixing may quickly produce anoxic conditions in the deeper, colder water. The water depth and the stratification of the water column into an anoxic zone (hypolimnion) below the aerobic zone (epilimnion) have large effects on GHG emissions. Dissolved CH4 is produced in anoxic conditions and can be oxidized to CO2 in aerobic conditions. If anoxic conditions exist for the whole water column it allows for fluxes of CH4 to the atmosphere. The greater the thickness of the overlying epilimnion layer in the water column, the less likelihood of diffuse CH4 emissions since production area and volume become less and the oxidizing area and volume (where CH4 can transform to CO2) becomes larger. Factors that indirectly affect GHG production and diffuse emissions thus also include temperature, stratification, water retention time (determined by inflow rate and reservoir volume and form), and quality of inflowing water: ?? The lower the temperature, the more oxygen can be dissolved in water. ?? The longer the retention time, the less mixing of oxygen-saturated water occurs, thus favoring stratification and a long period of anoxic conditions. ?? The poorer the quality of inflowing water (for example, high content of nutrients and organic matters), the more oxygen demand is created, favoring anoxic conditions. ?? Inflows with high inorganic sediment concentration inhibit GHG production. Transport of CH4 created from bed sediment can also occur in gas form as ebullition (bubbling) directly to the atmosphere. Ebullition is more likely to occur in shallow waters since solubility increases with pressure. At greater depths the pressure is high and the CH4 is thus more likely to be dissolved after creation. Because CO2 has much higher solubility than CH4, bubbling of CO2 is low even in shallow waters. Wind speed at the surface affects the diffuse fluxes of CO2 and CH4 from the water phase to the atmosphere. More wind speed increases fluxes. Because of the sudden decrease in pressure when water is released from a low-level (deep) outlet of the dam, the solubility of gases will drastically decrease and dissolved CH4 in particular may be degassed just downstream of the reservoir. Even if oxygen is available in this environment, the depth and time available for oxidation is short and CH4 is therefore transferred directly to the atmosphere. CO2 and CH4 discharged from the dam and not immediately degassed may also be released to the atmosphere in the river stretch downstream. The ratio of CH4 to CO2 release will gradually decrease with distance from the dam because of oxidation. CH4 emissions have been found to be higher in the drawdown zone of the reservoirs as vegetation is developed and flooded on a seasonal basis. 3.3 Findings on Measurements of Gross Emissons The main findings expressed in scientific publications on measurements of gross emissions (Tables 1–2) are summarized below. 8 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 3 ?? Measurements confirm the great temporal variability of GHG emissions. ?? Observed gross emissions are highly variable seasonally depending on changes in temperature and inflow rate. ?? Observed gross emissions show a decreasing trend with age of the reservoirs, with the highest values during the first 5 to 15 years after inundation. ?? Measurements confirm the great spatial variability of GHG emissions. ?? Observed gross emissions are highly variable spatially within the reservoir area depending on depth and conditions for stratification. ?? Observed gross emissions show large differences between reservoirs both in terms of total emissions, GHG type, and pathways by which the GHG is emitted. ?? Significant relationships between gross GHG emissions and input of dissolved organic material, age, and latitude have been found when statistically analyzing results at 89 reservoirs throughout the world (Barros et al. 2011). Emissions decrease with age and latitude and increase with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) input. ?? The highest observed gross GHG emissions have been found for reservoirs in dense tropical wet forests in South America. All of these are associated with a significant proportion of CH4 emissions. ?? The lowest observed gross GHG emissions have been found in cold continental Table 1: Results from Measurements of CO2 and CH4 Expressed as CO2 Equivalents Range of average CO2 and CH4 emissions from freshwater reservoirs per year Tropical climate CO2 flux CH4 flux CO2 + CH4 (t CO2/km2) (t CH4/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) Min Value –340.5 0.6 42.6 –176.2 Max Value 3,806 565 13,867 15,494 Number of reservoirs 24 Temperate climate CO2 flux CH4 flux CO2+ CH4 (t CO2/km2) (t CH4/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) Min Value –435.9 0.0 0.0 –34.7 Max Value 2,099 41 1,022 2,285 Number of reservoirs 64 Boreal climate CO2 flux CH4 flux CO2+ CH4 (t CO2/km2) (t CH4/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) (t CO2eq/km2) Min Value –376.5 1.3 32.8 –296.2 Max Value 2,000 145 3,632 3,652 Number of reservoirs 30 Note: Negative values mean the reservoir works as a sink. Source: Barros et al. 2011 and Chanudet et al. 2011. Results from Conducted Research 9 reservoirs in Canada and Scandinavia. CH4 emissions in all of these are low. ?? Reservoirs located in tropical dry forests in Brazil and Laos generally have lower gross GHG emissions than reservoirs located in tropical wet forests. ?? GHG emissions with a high proportion of CH4 have been found to be higher in reservoirs receiving large amounts of nutrients and organic matter from upstream urban areas than in similarly aged reservoirs with natural inflow, irrespective of latitude. ?? N2O emissions have so far only been studied in tropical climates in South America and contribute in all studied cases to less than 10 percent of the gross GHG emissions. ?? Some older reservoirs have been found to work as carbon sinks, burying more inflowing carbon in the bed sediment than they release to the atmosphere or downstream. 3.4 Results Put into Global Perspective Globally, natural lakes cover an estimated area of 3.7 to 4.2 million km2 (Downing et al. 2006). Reservoirs cover an estimated area of between 0. 3 and 1.5 million km2, depending on reference (St. Louis et al. 2000, Cole et al. 2007, Barros et al. 2011, Varis et al. 2012, Lehner et al. 2011). Of these, large dams (above 15 m in height) create inundation of 0.26 to 0.50 million km2 according to ICOLD, whereas the estimated area of small-scale dams is highly speculative. The area of hydroelectric dams is estimated to be 0.34 million km2. Earlier estimates (St. Louis et al. 2000) of GHG contribution from all reservoirs, using the upper limit of global areas, was 7 percent of global GHG emissions from all sources,8 whereas recent studies have indicated estimates of less than 1 percent (Varis et al. 2012). Both figures refer to gross emissions. Based on recent published studies, GHG gross emissions from reservoirs are only a fraction of all emissions from fresh waters (that is, natural and manmade water bodies). Estimates indicate that hydroelectric reservoirs contribute globally to 4 percent of total GHG emissions from fresh water (Barros et al. 2011). Table 2: Results from Measurements of N2O Expressed as CO2 Equivalents Range of Nitrous Oxide fluxes from tropical reservoirs per year Reservoir Surfaces Open Water Flooded Forest Downstream (t N2O/ km2) (t CO2eq/ km2) (t N2O/ km2) (t CO2eq/ km2) (t N2O/ km2) (t CO2eq/ km2) Min Value –2.17 –646 1.04 311 0.21 62 Max Value 3.52 1,048 3.04 905 4.51 1,345 Number of reservoirs 6 3 2 Notes: Negative values mean the reservoir works as a sink Source: Guerin et al. 2008. 8 Total global estimates of GHG emissions in 2010 were 30.6 Gt CO2-eqv/year according to IEA. 10 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 3 3.5 Future Research and Expected Outputs Research programs are ongoing, dealing mainly with two focus areas. ?? Development of standardized methodology for measuring GHG emissions both for pre- and post- impoundment and monitoring of more reservoirs. Emphasis on the monitoring is to enable comparison among studies and quantification of net emissions, which today is basically nonexistent. ?? Development and test of empirical and process-based models to predict GHGs from reservoirs. Two major groups, UNESCO/IHA9 and IEA Hydro’s Annex XII,10 lead the development of standards for monitoring and conduct the majority of reservoir studies. Regular meetings and workshops are held with the wider scientific community concerned with GHGs from reservoirs to get as broad acceptance of the methods and results as possible. UNESCO/IHA has recently started development of empirical modeling tools for predicting GHGs. A beta version of a predictive model (GHG Risk Assessment Tool) to calculate gross emissions for a reservoir was released in August 2012. The spreadsheet model is empirical and uses data of gross emissions from previous assessments on 169 reservoirs around the world. The IEA Hydro Annex XII has initiated development of physically based models for GHGs from reservoirs, with results scheduled for 2014. Monitoring of GHGs is very resource- and time-demanding, especially for net emissions, and increase in new measured data on GHGs from reservoirs is expected to be limited in the coming years. The results of previous measurements of gross emissions (Tables 1 and 2) and the development of empirical tools, such as the UNESCO/IHA GHG Risk Assessment Tool, to estimate gross emissions are essential for improved understanding and awareness of GHG emissions from reservoirs. Development of generalized tools for estimation of net GHG emissions from reservoirs, which is the key variable, is however not expected in the near future because of data scarcity. 9 www.hydropower.org/iha/development/ghg/ 10 www.ieahydro.org Results from Conducted Research 11 Section 4 Categorization of Reservoirs Based on GHG Emission Potential The generally agreed-upon stepwise process to assess potentially significant GHG emissions from reservoirs is to ask the following successive questions. ?? Does the reservoir have the capacity to create large carbon stock (amount of flooded organic matter, inflowing organic matter, and organic matter produced in the reservoir)? If the carbon stock is small, GWP is likely negligible. ?? Does the reservoir have the capacity to convert the organic matter to GHGs and to what type? If the physical conditions disfavor decomposition of organic matter, and especially do not favor creation of CH4 and N2O, GWP is likely negligible. ?? Does the reservoir have the capacity to release the created GHG to the atmosphere? If the pathways of CH4 and N2O to the atmosphere are few and if the physical conditions favor transformation of these to CO2 before emission, GWP is likely negligible. The results and understanding from gross GHG emission measurements during the last 15 years have led to the following key conclusions in regard to assessment of reservoirs: ?? Reservoirs with emissions causing significant GWP are associated with high CH4 emissions because of the gas’s strength as a GHG. ?? The likelihood of significant GHG emissions, especially CH4, increases with the number of variables contributing to GHG emission that work in combination. No single variable, for example, latitude or reservoir size, should be used on its own to estimate GHGs from a specific reservoir. ?? The key for assessing GHG emissions lies in understanding the availability of carbon stock and the reservoir’s water quality conditions, especially the temporal and spatial extent of anoxic conditions. Table 3 illustrates scenarios of different levels of GHG emissions depending on reservoir capacity to supply carbon stock, and create and release GHGs. The observed gross emissions and estimated net emissions for these scenarios indicate the following: ?? Each scenario still shows considerable ranges of emission rates, which confirms that GHG emissions are site specific and caution should be used when applying standard values. ?? Boreal and temperate reservoirs in pristine environments generally give an order of magnitude lower GHG emissions than those in tropical pristine conditions. ?? Reservoirs affected by upstream anthropogenic areas show in general higher gross emissions than reservoirs in pristine conditions. High rates are found when combining tropical wet conditions with large anthropogenic influence. ?? CH4/CO2 ratios are generally higher in tropical areas than in temperate and boreal conditions. Ratios show skewed distributions with most reservoirs showing low ratios but with a few very high values. Data are not sufficient to link these high ratios to a specific parameter, for example, high anthropogenic influence. 14 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 4 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Low density of flooded material Low concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively small drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation Low temperatures most of the year Mostly low-intensity rainfall or snow melt distributed over all seasons Low concentration of inflowing nutrients Short retention time, except in extreme northern part where long winters create periods of low inflows Reservoirs located in mostly pristine boreal areas Low CO2 emissions mainly during the first 5–10 years and no significant CH4 or N2O emissions. After initial years the emissions are close to zero Observed rates of emissions Median: 561 (–296–721) t CO2-eqv per km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio Median: 1.6% (0%–5%) Reason Limited flooded biomass providing easily decomposed organic matter only during the first years after inundation. Inflow with low content of nutrients and organic matter limiting supply of new labile carbon stock as well as preventing depletion of oxygen by nitrification. Low temperatures limiting high decomposition rate and allowing high levels of dissolved oxygen. Generally short retention time allows for regular oxygen supplies. CH4 that is created in the limited anoxic bottom zone has limited pathways and will likely be oxidized before reaching the surface of the reservoir. Low temperature and low nutrient load prevent creation of N2O in drawdown zone. Net emissions in the same order of magnitude as gross. Growth rate of biomass (sink) for the pre-impoundment conditions is small and often balanced by natural emissions from abundant water bodies in the boreal landscape. Main contribution to net emissions is therefore decomposable parts of flooded soil and vegetation in terrestrial zones. Assuming flooding fully forested areas the AFOLU values for different boreal ecological zones and soil types give lifespan average net emissions of 55–441 t CO2-eqv/km2 and year. A hydropower reservoir with power density of 1 MW/ km2 and 0.5 plant factor would (with the above emissions) give 12–101 g CO2-eqv/kWh (or 1%–11% compared to a coal plant). (continued on next page) Categori zation of Reservoirs Based on Ghg Emission Potential 15 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Low density of flooded material Low concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively large drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation High temperatures most of the year Seasonally intensive rainfall, long dry season with very low inflows Long retention time Low concentration of inflowing nutrients Reservoirs located in mostly pristine tropical savannah or scrubland areas Moderate emissions of CO2 and CH4, mainly during the first 5–10 years. Generally low base level after initial years Observed rates of emissions Too little data to give representative values Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all tropical) Median: 7.2% (1%–30%) Reason Limited flooded biomass providing easily decomposed organic matter only during the first years after inundation. Even if siltation rates may be high, inflow has low content of nutrients and organic matter limiting supply of new labile carbon stock as well as preventing depletion of oxygen by nitrification. Because of long dry seasons, drawdown zone may be large, creating new seasonal vegetation that is flooded annually. High temperatures and generally long retention times create anoxic zones during dry seasons, allowing CH4 to be created. CH4 may be released and degassed through the intake canals or emitted to the atmosphere during periods when most of the water column is anoxic. As labile organic matter is depleted from original flooded material the decomposing rate decreases, which also decreases oxygen depletion and thus the extent of anoxic conditions. Low nutrient load prevents significant creation of N2O in drawdown zone. Main contributions to net emissions are decomposable parts of flooded soil and vegetation in terrestrial zones plus removed sink from biomass growth. Assuming flooding fully vegetated areas, the AFOLU values for biomass volume and growth for tropical scrubland and different soil types give lifespan average net emissions of 210–297 t CO2-eqv/km2 and year. A hydropower reservoir with power density of 1 MW/ km2 and 0.5 plant factor would (with the above emissions) give 48–68 g CO2-eqv/kWh (or 5%–7% compared to a coal plant). (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 16 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 4 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Medium density of flooded material Low-medium concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively small drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation Low temperatures except for summer periods Mostly low-intensity rainfall or snow melt distributed over all seasons Low concentration of inflowing nutrients Fairly short retention time Reservoirs located in mostly pristine temperate forest areas Emissions mainly during the first 5–15 years, after which the base level is low. GHG dominated by CO2 but with some potential CH4 emissions Observed rates of emissions Median: 255 (–35–1,287) t CO2-eqv/km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all temperate) Median: 1.4% (0%–27%) Reason Significant carbon stock available but limited conditions for creation and release of GHG. Inflow with fairly low content of nutrients and organic matter, limiting supply of new labile carbon stock as well as preventing depletion of oxygen by nitrification. Temperatures limiting high decomposition rate and low levels of dissolved oxygen to mainly summer periods. Generally short retention time allows for regular oxygen supplies. Except during short periods when high temperatures and low retention time coincide, causing deep anoxic zones, CH4 has limited pathways and will likely be oxidized before reaching the surface of the reservoir. Low nutrient load and generally low temperatures prevent creation of N2O in drawdown zone. Main contribution to net emissions is from the removal of carbon sink since temperate forests have relatively high biomass growth. In addition, the emissions from decomposable parts of flooded soil and vegetation contribute to the net emissions. Assuming flooding fully forested areas the AFOLU values for different temperate forests and soil types give lifespan average net emissions of 478–979 t CO2-eqv/km2 and year. A hydropower reservoir with power density of 1 MW/ km2 and 0.5 plant factor would (with the above emissions) give 109–223 g CO2-eqv/kWh (or 12%–24% compared to a coal plant). (continued on next page) (continued) Categori zation of Reservoirs Based on Ghg Emission Potential 17 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Medium density of flooded material Medium concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively large drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation High temperatures throughout the year Seasonally intensive rainfall and fairly long dry season with low inflows Fairly long retention time Low concentration of inflowing nutrients Reservoirs located in mostly pristine tropical dry forest areas Moderate emissions of both CO2 and CH4. Decreasing emissions after 5–15 years to a moderate base level because of inflow of new labile organic matters Observed rates of emissions Median: 1,808 (439–5,449) t CO2-eqv/km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all tropical) Median: 7.2% (1%–30%) Reason Significant but not abundant carbon stock available. High seasonal intensive rainfall gives regular annual supply of new labile organic matter through riverine transport. Pristine areas however prevent significant nutrient load. Because of long dry seasons, drawdown zone may be large, creating new seasonal vegetation that is flooded annually. High temperatures create deep anoxic zones with long retention time, allowing CH4 to be created. CH4 may be released and degassed through the intake canals or emitted to the atmosphere mostly during the dry season. Limited nutrient load depleting oxygen and renewed oxygen supply during high intensive rainfall during the rainy season limit large CH4 emissions. Low nutrient load prevents significant creation of N2O in drawdown zone. Net emissions of the lifecycle generally lower than gross because much carbon stock is from riverine transport that would be emitted further downstream even without the dam. Main contributions to net emissions are decomposable parts of flooded soil and vegetation in terrestrial zones plus removed sink from biomass growth. Assuming flooding fully forested areas the AFOLU values for tropical dry forests and different soil types give lifespan average net emissions of 481–587 t CO2-eqv/km2 and year. A hydropower reservoir with power density of 1 MW/ km2 and 0.5 plant factor would (with the above emissions) give 110–134 g CO2-eqv/kWh (or 12%–15% compared to a coal plant). (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 18 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 4 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes High density of flooded material Medium concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively small drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation High temperatures throughout the year High rainfall fairly well distributed over the year Fairly short retention time Medium concentration of inflowing nutrients Reservoirs located in mostly pristine tropical wet forest areas (rain forests) Significant emissions of both CO2 and CH4, and potential emissions of N2O. Decreasing emissions after 10–20 years to a moderate base level because of medium inflow of new labile organic matter Observed rates of emissions Median: 1,520 (487–3,072) t CO2-eqv/km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all tropical) Median: 7.2% (1%–30%) Reason Large carbon stock available from flooded material. Inflow that naturally contains organic matters and nutrients. High water temperatures throughout the year favoring high decomposition rate and anoxic conditions, allowing for CH4 creation large part of the year. High temperatures create deep anoxic zones, allowing CH4 to be released and degassed through the intake canals or emitted to the atmosphere since most of the water column is anoxic. Nutrient inputs and high temperatures favor denitrification allowing potential N2O emissions in drawdown zone. Short retention time and pristine conditions, limiting very high inflow of nutrient and organic matter, prevents extreme high emissions. Net emissions of the lifecycle generally lower than gross because much carbon stock is from riverine transport that would be emitted further downstream even without the dam. Main contributions to net emissions are decomposable parts of flooded soil and dense vegetation in terrestrial zones plus removed sink from high biomass growth. Assuming flooding fully forested areas the AFOLU values for different tropical wet forest and soil types give lifespan average net emissions of 886–1,507 t CO2-eqv/km2 and year. A hydropower reservoir with power density of 1 MW/ km2 and 0.5 plant factor would (with the above emissions) give 202–344 g CO2-eqv/kWh (or 22%–37% compared to a coal plant). (continued on next page) (continued) Categori zation of Reservoirs Based on Ghg Emission Potential 19 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Medium density of flooded material High concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively small drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation Low temperatures except for summer periods Mostly low intensity rainfall or snow melt distributed over all seasons Inflow of nutrients from upstream agriculture and urban areas Reservoirs located in temperate forests downstream of densely developed areas Moderate to significant emissions of both CO2 and CH4 and some N2O. Decreasing emissions after 5–15 years to a high base level because of inflow of new labile organic matter Observed rates of emissions Median: 346 (170–2,285) t CO2-eqv/km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all temperate) Median: 1.4% (0%–27%) Reason Significant but not abundant carbon stock available. Although generally low temperatures, the inflow of new labile organic matter and nutrients from anthropogenic sources cause high oxygen depletion and deep zones of anoxic conditions. CH4 is thus created in a large part of the water column and is allowed to be released through the intake canal or emitted to the atmosphere at the reservoir surface. Low temperatures during a large part of the year, however, prevent very high emissions. High levels of nutrient inputs favor denitrification during summer periods, risking N2O emissions in the drawdown zone. Net emissions of the lifecycle considerably lower than gross because much carbon stock and conditions to create GHG are caused by upstream artificial activities not linked to the reservoir. The artificially increased GHG emissions would be emitted further downstream in natural water bodies even without the dam. Main contributions to net emissions are decomposable parts of flooded soil and vegetation in terrestrial zones plus removed sink from high biomass growth. Net emissions are thus the same as for pristine temperate forests, see above. (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 20 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 4 Table 3: Illustrated Scenarios of GWP from Reservoirs Depending on Capacity to Supply Carbon Stock and the Conditions to Create and Release GHGsa Amount of carbon stock Conditions to create and release GHGs Examples Typical characteristics of gross emissions Anticipated net emissionsb generated by biochemical processes Very high density of flooded material High concentration of inflowing organic matter Relatively small drawdown zone to create new seasonal vegetation High temperatures throughout the year High rainfall fairly well distributed over the year Fairly short retention time High concentration of inflowing nutrients because of contribution from upstream agriculture and urban areas Reservoirs located in tropical wet forests downstream of densely developed areas Significant emissions of both CO2 and CH4, and potentially high emissions of N2O. Decreasing emissions after 10–20 years to a high base level because of high inflow of new labile organic matter Observed rates of emissions Median: 2,950 (122–15,494) t CO2-eqv/km2 reservoir area and year Observed CH4/ CO2 ratio (all tropical) Median: 7.2% (1%–30%) Reason Large carbon stock available from flooded material. The combination of high inflow of nutrients and organic matter, and high water temperatures favoring high decomposing rate and anoxic conditions in the whole water column in a large part of the reservoir and during a large part of the year. The limited oxygen availability in the water column prevents oxidation, allowing CH4 to be emitted to the atmosphere. High levels of nutrient inputs and high temperatures favor denitrification, allowing potentially high N2O emissions. Net emissions of the lifecycle considerably lower than gross because a large part of the carbon stock and conditions to create GHG are caused by upstream artificial activities not linked to the reservoir. The artificially increased GHG emission would be emitted further downstream in natural water bodies even without the dam. Main contributions to net emissions are decomposable parts of flooded soil and dense vegetation in terrestrial zones plus removed sink from high biomass growth. Net emissions are thus the same as for pristine tropical wet forests, see above. a Observed gross emission rates based on presented results in Barros et al. 2011, which have been judged well representative for the respective category (values may thus differ slightly from Table 1). If fewer than five reservoirs with data exist for the category, no values are presented. Calculated net emissions are based on the methodology (Tier 1) described in Section 5.2. Note that the net emissions are based on fully forested (vegetated) areas. If only part of the flooded area is forested (vegetated) the emissions will be lower. Observed CH4/CO2 ratios are based on observed average emissions converted to atomic mass of carbon. b Net emissions here refer only to biochemical processes and do not include emissions from dam construction or baseline emissions generated by alternatives built if the reservoir would not be constructed, see Section 2.2. AFOLU – 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, Volume 4: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use. (continued) Categori zation of Reservoirs Based on Ghg Emission Potential 21 Section 5 Recommendations for Preparing Dam Projects 5.1 Qualitative Assessment of GHG Emission Potential For dam infrastructure projects with significant inundation for which the World Bank may provide financing, studying biochemically generated GHG from the reservoirs as part of the Environmental Impact Assessment is recommended. The purpose of including studies of potential GHG emissions from reservoirs as part of the EIA is to enable comparison of alternative design options within the framework of the investment project. Current science only permits a crude comparison of alternatives. The inclusion of GHG assessment in the EIA does not change the boundaries for a regular impact assessment. GHG emissions can be anticipated to occur at the reservoir area and the immediate river stretch downstream of the reservoir, which should guide implementation monitoring programs. The qualitative assessment of biochemically generated GHG from the reservoir is recommended to follow the stepwise process given in Section 4, evaluating the supply of carbon stock and the reservoir’s condition to create and release GHG. ?? Based on available information, provide an overall description of the main factors affecting future potential GHG emissions from the planned reservoir options (see Table 4). ?? Based on the compiled information, make a qualitative assessment of the reservoir’s capacity to supply carbon stock and to create and release different types of GHGs (see Table 5). ?? Compare the reservoir alternatives with the examples given in Table 3 to assess the potential GHG emissions from the planned reservoir alternatives. If emissions are not negligible, consider a more detailed estimation of the magnitude of GHG according to Section 5.2. For dam infrastructure projects with estimated potentially significant GHG emissions, streamlined post-implementation monitoring of GHG from the reservoir and immediate river stretch downstream is recommended to confirm the order of magnitude of the estimated emission potential. The purpose of such monitoring is not to provide a complete estimation of net GHG emissions but to make a rough comparative analysis of gross emissions with previous results. Comparison of observed emissions should take into account local conditions and be made against relevant previous observations under similar conditions (cf. Table 3). Such a monitoring program could have the following suggested characteristics: ?? focus on gross emissions of CO2 and CH4 measured by Surface Floating Chambers,11 11 See, for example, UNESCO/IHA 2010 for a description of monitoring methods. ?? covering spatially the reservoir along the longitudinal axis as well as the immediate river stretch downstream of the reservoir, and ?? covering temporally a period of at least 3 years with seasonal measurements. For dam infrastructure projects with estimated potentially significant GHG emissions for which the World Bank may provide financing, it is further encouraged to investigate possibilities to support from Trust Funds detailed measurements to enhance research on biochemical GHG emissions from reservoirs. In such cases, both pre- and post-impoundment measurements are recommended to enable estimation of net emissions in accordance with the guidelines of UNESCO/IHA and IEA Hydro Annex XII. Biomass removal should be carefully assessed before being used as a default mitigation measure for preventing GHG. A large part of GHG emissions stems from easily available carbon in soil and small vegetation, whereas Table 4: Information to Retrieve to Assess Future Potential GHG from a Reservoir Factor to retrieve Proposed methodology Size and shape of inundated area and volume of reservoir Use existing topographical maps or air photographs to delineate inundated area up to planned Full Supply Level. When natural lakes are utilized as reservoirs, estimate how much new inundated area is created by damming. Calculate surface areas, volumes, and average depth. This information is available from the technical feasibility study. Size of drawdown area Combine information from planned operation rules with the obtained information on inundated area at different reservoir levels to estimate drawdown area. This information is available from the technical feasibility study. Intake configuration Assess how far from the reservoir bed level the bottom outlet and intake structure for downstream water use/hydropower production is located. This information is available from the technical feasibility study. Rainfall and temperature in planned reservoir area Use historical records of rainfall and temperature in the vicinity of the planned reservoir. This data and information is normally available from the technical feasibility study. River inflow to the planned reservoir and retention time Use records of river flows rivers upstream from the reservoir to estimate inflow amount and hydrograph shape. Divide average annual inflows with the reservoir volume to retrieve an average retention time. This data and information is available from the technical feasibility study. Type and extent of flooded vegetation Use existing global maps of ecoregions (e.g., WWF’s Terrestrial Ecoregions GIS Database or FAO Global Ecological Zones) combined with studies of air photos and field surveys in planned reservoir area. Type of flooded soil and extent of soil carbon Use existing national soil maps combined with tabulated carbon mass in AFOLU (Table 2.3). If possible, conduct field surveys and soil sampling in planned reservoir area to confirm soil types and carbon content. Water quality of inflowing rivers Use historical records of suspended and dissolved organic material, dissolved oxygen, nitrogen and phosphorus in the rivers upstream of the reservoir (or if this is not available, in the nearest representative river). If possible conduct water sampling of inflowing rivers. Conduct an overall assessment of land cover, land use, and potential point sources of organic matter and nutrients in upstream catchment area. Reservoir’s position in the river basin system Conduct an overall assessment of downstream river to assess what likely fate inflowing organic material would have had without the planned reservoir. 24 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 5 tree trunks remain in the reservoir for a long time. The positive effect on GHG emissions of biomass removal thus depends on which vegetation is cleared and how this biomass is treated after removal. Apart from the possible GHG emission reduction, the biomass removal assessment should take into account the commercial value of the biomass as well as possibly improved water quality and future use of the reservoir for fishing and other ecosystem services. Table 5: Guide to Describe Future Potential GHG from a Reservoir Proposed methodology Describe the reservoir’s capacity to supply carbon stock for the design alternatives Key parameters are flooded surface area and coverage of forest/ vegetation. In addition, compare type of forest and soil, if different between alternatives. Use standard values of carbon content in AFOLU (Tables 2.2, 2.3, 4.12) for comparison. Estimate if the reservoir alternatives will create significantly different storage conditions for inflowing organic matter compared to the situation without the alternatives. If so, take into account differences in inflowing organic matter and trap efficiency of the reservoir alternatives. Estimate possibility for growth of vegetation in drawdown zones based on the estimated drawdown area in the reservoir design alternatives. Describe the reservoir alternatives’ ability to create GHG from the carbon stock. Key parameters are temperature, retention time, and quality of inflowing water. Use information on climate (temperature and rainfall regime) to assess if provisions for extensive anoxic conditions may occur. If so, compare retention time and different degree of anthropogenic influence to rank alternatives. Describe the reservoir alternatives’ ability to release GHG to the atmosphere. Key parameters are extent of shallow water and location of intake structures. Compare form of reservoir and distance from bed level to lowest intake channel for the options. • Shallow reservoir • Anoxic conditions in most of the water column • Intake for downstream releases in anoxic zone Ability to supply carbon stock Ability to create GHG Ability to release GHG E.g. • High temperature • Long retention time • Stratification of reservoir • Large inflow of nutrients from upstream areas E.g. • Large reservoir area • High percentage of forests • High density of vegetation • High carbon content in soil E.g. Negligible emissions Negligible emissions Negligible emissions Potentially significant GHG emissions Yes Yes Yes No No No Recommendations for Preparing Dam Projects 25 5.2 Preliminary Quantitative Assessment of Net GHG Emissions If potentially significant GHG emissions cannot be discounted through the above qualitative assessment, it can be useful to conduct a rough analysis of emission quantities. Given the present limited information and understanding of GHG from reservoirs, only very preliminary estimates can be made. Therefore, the use of detailed emission predictions resulting from the methodology below for decision-making is not recommended and results should preferably be published in broad intervals. The assumptions for estimating GHG from reservoirs using this methodology are based on the available published literature and are given below. ?? The estimate must be made based on a life-cycle analysis, that is, the only possible estimate is an average net emission rate over the 100-year lifespan of a reservoir. Existing data and knowledge are not sufficient to describe the detailed emission development over time. ?? Following IPCC’s definition (see Section 2.2), net GHG emissions from reservoirs are based on pristine conditions, ignoring the effects of anthropogenic influence from upstream areas such as supply of carbon stock and enhanced conditions for CH4 creation from urban and agricultural activities. ?? The major contributions to net emissions over a reservoir’s life span are assumed to be flooded biomass, litter, and soil carbon, as well as the removal of carbon sinks in the inundated area.12 Contributions from seasonally produced carbon stock in the drawdown zone are not considered. Inflowing material is further assumed not to contribute significantly to the net emissions, since the organic carbon in this material would likely have been transported and eventually emitted downstream even without the reservoir. Sequestering of carbon by plants in the new aquatic system and burying of carbon in the bed sediments are further not taken into account. ?? Only CO2 and CH4 emissions are considered in the estimation. N2O emissions are assumed to be insignificant for net emissions. ?? Only part of the organic carbon flooded by the reservoir is assumed to be available for decomposition and emitted during the reservoir’s life span. Limited research (Abril et al. 2005, Campo and Sancholuz 1998) has indicated a decreasing rate of decomposition with time and levels of degradation at around 40 percent of the biomass after 40 to 65 years. A figure of 50 percent of flooded organic carbon has thus been assumed to be contributing to GHG over the 100-year life span of a reservoir. ?? In the absence of clear understanding and data, it is assumed that the part of available flooded carbon stock, which is emitted as CH4 under pristine conditions, is dependent on latitude (as a coarse screening tool). The assumed CH4/ CO2 ratios under boreal, temperate, and tropical conditions are thus set as the observed median values from 89 reservoirs reported in recent studies (Barros et al. 2011, Chanudet et al. 2011; see Table 3 for values). 12 Note that net emissions here refer only to biochemical processes and do not include emissions from dam construction or baseline emissions generated by alternatives built if the reservoir were not constructed, see Section 2.2. 26 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Section 5 ?? The calculation of removal of carbon sink is based on the concept of net sink for the inundated area, that is, taking into account both the carbon sink of flooded terrestrial areas and the emissions from water bodies that existed prior to the reservoir’s construction. A minimum prerequisite for making an estimate is having the reservoir’s geographical coordinates, the spatial extent of flooded area, the percentage coverage of forests/vegetation and water bodies of this area, and regional ecological and soil maps. With the above crude assumptions, the estimation of GHG emissions from reservoirs can be applied to a varying degree of detail, depending on available data and information. The following tier levels can be used depending on available information and resources. ?? Tier 1.13 Desk study based on AFOLU stock estimate: Use available geographical information on the reservoir from feasibility and EIA studies together with standard biomass, carbon content, soil, and litter carbon in AFOLU to estimate flooded organic carbon amount. Combine with interim assumption given above to estimate average GHG emissions over the reservoir’s life span. ?? Tier 2. Desk study based on more detailed stock estimates: Use available geographical information on the reservoir from feasibility and EIA studies together with local and regional databases on above-ground biomass, soil, and litter carbon. ?? Tier 3a. Field studies: Use results from Tier 1 or 2 augmented by field measurements (plot tests) and laboratory analyses to estimate carbon content in biomass, litter, and soil. This is similar to standard CDM methodology for deforestation. ?? Tier 3b. Water quality modeling: Use results from Tier 1, 2 or 3a augmented by water quality modeling of the extent in space and time of anoxic conditions in the reservoir to inform the choice of CH4/ CO2 ratio. The significant uncertainty associated with the above methodology to quantify GHG emissions from a reservoir should be noted and transparent. The methodology is predominantly to be used for comparison of alternatives in the design of a project, in which the same methodology and level of detail has been used. Given the methodology’s scope and limitations, it is not advisable to use this methodology to compare sectorally different alternatives to the project. 13 See Annex 3 for detailed steps. Recommendations for Preparing Dam Projects 27 Section 6 The technical guidance above comprises an interim method to assess and estimate order of magnitude of biochemically generated net GHG from reservoirs based on findings published in research papers to date. This simplified method is recommended as an interim tool until a more sophisticated model is developed and accepted by the broad scientific community. When such a major breakthrough is reached this technical note should be updated. The following roadmap is envisaged for the World Bank to update and finalize this interim technical note over the next two years. ?? Conduct regular meetings with EIA practitioners and Task Team Leaders in the World Bank to obtain feedback on the applications of this note in preparation of World Bank projects involving reservoirs. ?? Continuously update the research literature in the field of GHGs from reservoirs. ?? Regularly interact with UNESCO/IHA, IEA Hydro Annex XII, and other research programs to update information and research on GHG from reservoirs. ?? Interact with other multilateral development banks (MDBs) with the aim of harmonization of guidance on biochemically generated GHGs from reservoirs. ?? Based on the above interaction, the technical note will be updated and, if possible, finalized in June 2015. Updating of this Technical Note Glossary Aerobic Describes conditions or processes in water or sediments in which oxygen is present. AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use, common name for the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Anaerobic Describes conditions or processes in water and sediments in which oxygen is absent. Anoxic Same as anaerobic. Describes conditions in water and sediments in which oxygen is absent. Anthropogenic Resulting from or produced by human beings. Biomass The total mass of living organisms in a given area, volume, or ecosystem at a given time; recently dead plant material is included as dead biomass. The quantity of biomass can be expressed as a dry weight or as the energy or carbon content. Carbon cycle The process of carbon flow through the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere (including freshwater systems), and sediments, as well as its transformation processes (chemical alteration, photosynthesis, respiration, decomposition, air-sea exchange, etc.). Carbon dioxide (CO2) A naturally occurring GHG fixed by photosynthesis into organic matter and released during respiration. It is a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, land use changes, and other industrial processes. CO2 equivalents The amount of CO2 emission that would have the same GWP over a given time horizon, as an emitted amount of a GHG or a mixture of GHGs. The CO2 equivalent emission is obtained by multiplying the emissions of a GHG by its GWP for the given time horizon. For a mix of GHGs it is obtained by summing the CO2 equivalent emission of each gas. Carbon footprint A form of carbon calculation that considers the net emissions of GHG throughout the life cycle of a project or investment. Carbon mass flow Carbon in a water body can be in particulate or dissolved form and can be organic or inorganic. The forms to be measured are: Total Organic Carbon (TOC), Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC), Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC), and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC). Carbon inputs and outputs to be considered are: carbon brought in by macrophytes, carbon exchanges with groundwater, carbon lost permanently to sediment, carbon exchanged with atmosphere in the form of CO2 and CH4, and humic substance income and output. Carbon sequestration Build-up of GHG concentration in vegetation, water, or sediments. Carbon stock The quantity of carbon in a water body and its sediments. Decomposition Chemical processes by which organic matter in a water body is transformed into gaseous end products. Major processes are oxidative decomposition, methanogenesis, and denitrification and their end products are CO2, CH4 and N2O. Degassing GHG flux induced by dramatic pressure change immediately after water discharge from reservoir outlets. Denitrification Denitrification describes the conversion of nitrate into nitrite, then to N2O, and finally to nitrogen gas. This process happens in the slightly anoxic upper layer of sediment. Diffusive flux Discharge of GHG from the air-water interface of a water body. Dissolved Oxygen (DO) The oxygen in a water body in its dissolved form. Dissolved oxygen influences organic matter decomposition processes and serves fish and other aquatic organisms for respiration. Ebullition (Bubbling) Discharge in form of bubbles of gaseous substances from a water body, which results from carbonation, evaporation, or fermentation. Ecosystem The interactive system formed from all living organisms and their abiotic (physical and chemical) environment within a given area. In the context of this note a difference is made between aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Epilimnion The dense top-most layer of water in a thermally stratified water body. Global Warming Potential An index, based on the radiative properties of GHGs, measuring the radiative forcing of a unit mass of a given GHG in today’s atmosphere integrated over a chosen time horizon, relative to that of CO2. The GWP represents the combined effect of the differing lengths of time that these gases remain in the atmosphere and their relative effectiveness in absorbing outgoing infrared radiation. The IPCC considers the GWP of GHG within a 100-year time frame. Greenhouse gas GHGs are those gaseous constituents of the atmosphere, both natural and anthropogenic, that absorb and emit radiation at specific wavelengths within the spectrum of thermal infrared radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere itself, and by clouds. In the context of this note, the evaluation of net emissions from water bodies includes the three GHG species, CO2, CH4 and N2O. Hypolimnion The dense bottom layer of water in a thermally stratified water body. Macrophyte Rooted plant that grows in or near water. Methane (CH4) A naturally occurring GHG, a main component of natural gas, and an end product of animal husbandry and agriculture. Methane oxidation Process by which CH4 is oxidized to CO2 and which occurs in aerobic conditions. Methanogenesis Production of CH4 by anaerobic bacteria and microbes present in the anoxic layers of a water body, which feed on the detritus of organic matter and respire CH4. Nitrification An aerobic process in which bacteria change the ammonia and organic nitrogen in water and decomposed matter into oxidized nitrogen (nitrate). Nitrous Oxide (N2O) A naturally occurring GHG produced through bacterial nitrification and denitrification processes. Oxic Describes conditions in water and its sediments in which oxygen is present. Photosynthesis Process driven by solar energy by which atmospheric CO2 is fixed by plants and algae for the primary production of organic matter and oxygen as a byproduct. INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 32 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Residence time Average time a water molecule spends in a reservoir. Used to describe the flow rate of the water through the reservoir. Value can vary inside one reservoir. Respiration Heterotrophic respiration is the process whereby microorganisms grow by converting organic matter to sugars; autotrophic (or maintenance) respiration is the process through which plants and animals burn sugars to give energy. Both reactions produce CO2. Stratification A water body can be stratified in layers of temperature, salinity, or chemical compositions, which can act as barriers to water mixing. Glossar y 33 Bibliography and References Bibliography Year Paper Description 2012 Goldenfum, J. A. “Challenges and Solutions for Assessing the Impact of Freshwater Reservoirs on Natural GHG Emissions.” Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 12, no. 2 (2012): 115–122. Summarizes 20 years of studies on GHGs from reservoirs. Goldenfum, J. A., ed. “GHG Risk Assessment Tool (Beta Version).” Derived from the UNESCO/IHA Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freshwater Reservoirs Research Project, August 2012. Presents a beta version of a predictive model to calculate gross emissions for a reservoir. The spreadsheet model is empirical and uses data of gross emissions from previous assessments on 169 reservoirs around the world. The model is available at: http://www.hydropower.org/iha/ development/ghg/risk-assessment-tool.html Harby, A., F. Guerin, J. Bastien, and M. Demarty. “Greenhouse Gas Status of Hydro Reservoirs.” Report. Trondheim, Norway: Centre for Environmental Design of Renewable Energy, 2012. Explains the main processes and principles relevant to understanding the GHG status of hydro reservoirs. Teodoru, C. R., J. Bastien, M. Bonneville, P. A. del Giorgio, M. Demarty, M. Ganeau, J. F. Helie, L. Pelletier, Y. T. Prairie, N. T. Roulet, I. B. Strachan, and A. Tremblay. “The Net Carbon Footprint of a Newly-Created Boreal Hydroelectric Reservoir.” In Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 26. Oxford: Elsevier, 2012. doi: 10.1029/2011GB004187. A comprehensive description of the assessment of net emissions from the Eastman 1 hydropower reservoir on Canada (partly described earlier by Tremblay et al. 2010). The study spanned over a seven-year period including both pre- and postflood measurements. Varis, O., M. Kummu, S. Harkonen, and J. T. Huttunen. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Reservoirs.” In Impacts of Large Dams: A Global Assessment, edited by C. Tortajada, D. Altinbilek and A. K. Biswas. Chapter 4. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2012. Estimation of global GHG emissions from reservoirs based on published literature. (continued on next page) Bibliography Year Paper Description 2011 Barros, N., J. J. Cole, L. J. Tranvik, Y. T. Prairie, D. Bastviken, V. L. M. Huszar, P. del Giorgio, and F. Roland. “Carbon Emission from Hydroelectric Reservoirs Linked to Reservoir Age and Latitude.” Nature Geoscience 4 (2011): 593-596. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1211. CO2 and CH4 emissions from hydroelectric reservoirs are assessed, on the basis of data from 85 globally distributed hydroelectric reservoirs, enabling an estimate that hydroelectric reservoirs emit about 48 Teragram Carbon (Tg C) as CO2 and 3 Tg C as CH4, (significantly smaller than previous estimates on the basis of more limited data). These emissions are correlated to reservoir age, location biome, morphometric features and chemical status. Bastviken, D., L. J. Tranvik, J. A. Downing, P. M. Crill, and A. Enrich-Prast. “Freshwater Methane Emissions Offset the Continental Carbon Sink.” Science 331 (2011): 50. New available data used to estimate CH4 emissions of inland waters. The results suggest that the terrestrial GHG sink may be smaller than currently believed. GHG emissions from lakes, impoundments, and rivers (parts of the terrestrial landscape usually not included in the terrestrial GHG balance) can substantially affect global land GHG sink estimates. Chanudet, V., S. Descloux, A. Harby, H. Sundt, B. H. Hansen, O. Brakstad, D. Serça, and F. Guerin. “Gross CO2 and CH4 Emissions from the Nam Ngum and Nam Leuk Sub-Tropical Reservoirs in Lao PDR.” Science of the Total Environment 49 (2011): 5382-5391. doi:10.1016/j. scitotenv.2011.09.018. Gross CO2 and CH4 emissions and the carbon balance were assessed in 2009–2010 in two Southeast Asian subtropical reservoirs within the same climatic area but differing in age, size, residence time, and initial biomass stock. The 10-year-old reservoir still shows significant GHG emissions, whereas the 40-year-old reservoir is a carbon sink. Demarty, M., J. Bastien, and A. Tremblay. “Annual Follow-Up of Gross Diffusive Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions from a Boreal Reservoir and Two Nearby Lakes in Québec, Canada.” Biogeosciences 8 (2011): 41–53. doi:10.5194/bg-8-41-2011. Surface water CO2 and CH4 measurements taken in Eastmain 1 reservoir and two nearby lakes, from summer 2006 to summer 2008, clearly demonstrated that in these systems, diffusive CH4 flux (in terms of CO2 equivalent) were of minor importance in the GHG emissions (without CH4 accumulation under ice), with diffusive CO2 flux generally accounting for more than 95 percent of the annual diffusive flux. Demarty, M., and J. Bastien. “GHG Emissions from Hydroelectric Reservoirs in Tropical and Equatorial Regions: Review of 20 Years of CH4 Emission Measurements.” Energy Policy 39, no. 7 (2011): 4197–4206. GHG emissions have been measured for only 18 of the 741 large dams (410 MW, according to the ICOLD register) listed in the tropics. This article reviews the limited scientific information available and concludes that, at this time, no global position can be taken regarding the importance and extent of GHG emissions in warm latitudes. Ometto, J. P., A. C. P. Cimbleris, M. A. Santos, L. P. Rosa, D. Abe, J. G. Tundisi, J. L. Stech, N. O. Barros, and F. Roland. “Patterns of Carbon Emission as a Function of Energy Generation in Hydroelectric Reservoirs.” Submitted to Climatic Change, 2011. Field results from eight reservoirs, over five years, in central and southeastern tropical Brazil and analyzed data from 33 reservoirs distributed worldwide. Emissions In the Brazilian reservoirs decreased with reservoir age. The global comparison showed lower emission from hydro reservoirs in relation to fossil fuel electrical supply. (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 36 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Bibliography Year Paper Description Raadal, H. L., L. Gagnon, I. S. Modahl, and O. L. Hanssen. “Life Cycle Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions from the Generation of Wind and Hydro Power.” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 15 (2011): 3417–3422 Presents an overview of the life-cycle GHG emissions from hydropower dams. Studies 28 reservoir hydropower dams that gave an interval of 4.5–152 g CO2-eqv per kWh. Recommends stricter rules and requirements for life-cycle assessments of GHG emissions. 2010 Del Sontro, T., D. F. Mcginnis, S. Sobek, I. Ostrovsky, and B. Wehrl. “Extreme Methane Emissions from a Swiss Hydropower Reservoir: Contribution from Bubbling Sediments.” Environmental Science & Technology 44 (2010): 2419–2425. Methane emission pathways were quantified during a yearlong survey of a 90-year-old temperate hydropower reservoir, indicating high ebullition rates and a strong positive correlation between water temperature and the observed dissolved methane concentration. The total methane emission from Lake Wohlen was the highest ever documented for a midlatitude reservoir. Mäkinen, K., and S. Khan. “Policy Considerations for Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freshwater Reservoirs.” Water Alternatives 3, no. 2 (2010): 91–105. This paper presents a range of possible policy interventions at different scales that potentially could help to address the climate impact of reservoirs. Tremblay, A., J. Bastien, M.-C. Bonneville, P. del Giorgio, M. Demarty, M. Garneau, J.-F. Hélie, L. Pelletier, Y. Prairie, N. Roulet, I. Strachan, and C. Teodoru. “Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions at Eastmain 1 Reservoir, Quebec, Canada.” Proceedings of the 21th World Energy Congress, Montréal, September 12–16, 2010. Large-scale study carried out in collaboration with the Université du Québec à Montréal, McGill University, and Environnement IIlimité, Inc. Gross GHG fluxes measured using different techniques (eddy covariance, chambers, gas, partial pressure, etc.) for both aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. More than 120,000 measurements were done over seven years. The data clearly showed that, prior to flooding, the natural ecosystems overall were a low net source of CO2 and CH4. Net GHG emissions from Eastmain 1 increased following impoundment and quickly decreased, with a firstorder exponential decay as net emissions would likely stabilize around 10 years after flooding. Overall net GHG emissions from the Eastmain 1 reservoir are low in comparison with those from a thermal power plant of the same capacity (about 16 percent). UNESCO/IHA. GHG Measurement Guidelines for Freshwater Reservoirs. London: International Hydropower Association, 2010. http://hydropower. org/iha/development/ghg/guidelines. html Pioneering document, describing standardized procedures for field measurements and calculation methods to estimate the impact of the creation of a reservoir on a river basin’s overall GHG emissions. It is not meant as a general method for routine assessment and monitoring, but rather as a standard method to obtain reliable and comparable data. The document will be updated at regular intervals. (continued on next page) (continued) Bibliograph y and References 37 Bibliography Year Paper Description 2009 Chen, H., Y. Wu, X. Yuan, Y. Gao, N. Wu, and D. Zhu. “Methane Emissions from Newly Created Marshes in the Drawdown Area of the Three Gorges Reservoir.” Journal of Geophysical Research 114 (2009): D18301. doi:10.1029/2009JD012410. CH4 emissions measured from four vegetation stands in newly created marshes in the drawdown area of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China, in the summer of 2008. The results showed highly spatial variations of methane emissions, caused by difference in standing water depth and dissolved organic carbon. Seasonal variation of CH4 emissions was found to be closely related to temperature and standing water depth. Demarty, M., J. Bastien, A. Tremblay, R. Hesslein, and R. Gill. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Boreal Reservoirs in Manitoba and Québec, Canada, Measured with Automated Systems.” Environmental Science & Technology 43, no. 23 (2009): 8905–8915. Comparisons of results obtained in the Eastmain 1 area using automated monitors, floating chambers, or dissolved gas analyses over multiplestation field campaigns demonstrated that a continuous GHG monitor at a single sampling station provided representative and robust results. Gunkel, G. “Hydropower—A Green Energy? Tropical Reservoirs and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” CLEAN— Soil, Air, Water 37 (2009): 726–734. doi: 10.1002/clen.200900062. A simple evaluation of the global warming potential (GWP) of a reservoir using the energy density calculated from available data from Petit Saut, French Guinea, is used to provide a first quantification of CO2 and CH4 pathways. The results show that some reservoirs have a GWP higher than that of coal use for energy production. Ramos, F. M., L. A. W. Bambace, I. B. T. Lima, R. R. Rosa, E. A. Mazzi, and P. M. Fearnside. “Methane Stocks in Tropical Hydropower Reservoirs as a Potential Energy Source.” Climatic Change 93, nos.1–2 (2009): 1–13. doi: 10.1007/ s10584-008-9542-6. Proposes the use of mitigation strategies to reduce CH4 emissions and recovery strategies to use the gas to generate energy. Sikar, E., B., Matvienko, M. A. Santos, L. P. Rosa, M. B. , Silva, E. O. Santos, C. H. E. D. Rocha, and A. P. Bentes Jr. “Tropical Reservoirs Are Bigger Carbon Sinks Than Soils.” Verh. Internat. Verein. Limnol 30 (2009): 838–840. Carbon balance studies from fluxes of GHG estimated before and after construction of dams in Brazil show that the ?ooding switched the cerrados from a source to a sink of CO2, but with significant net emissions of methane, and turned nitrous oxide sinks into sources. The carbon sinking rate is bigger than the GHG emissions. 2008 Fearnside, P. “A Framework for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Brazil’s Amazonian Hydroelectric Dams.” English translation of Fearnside, P. M. 2008. “Hidrelétricas Como ‘Fábricas de Metano’: O Papel Dos Reservatórios em Áreas de Floresta Tropical na Emissão de Gases de Efeito Estufa.” Oecologia Brasiliensis 12, no. 1 (2008): 100–115. ISSN: 1980-6442. doi: 10.4257/ oeco.2008.1201.11. A framework for estimating GHG emissions from hydroelectric dams is proposed based on scaling up measured values from a small number of reservoirs in the Amazonian region. (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 38 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Bibliography Year Paper Description Guérin, F., G. Abril, A. Tremblay, and R. Delmas. “Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Tropical Hydroelectric Reservoirs.” Geophysical Research Letters 35 (2008). doi:10.1029/2007GL033057. N2O fluxes from two tropical reservoirs (Petit Saut, French Guiana, and Fortuna, Panama), rivers downstream, natural aquatic ecosystems, and rainforest soils were measured. Results showed that N2O emissions from tropical reservoirs were mainly at the reservoir surface, fluxes downstream of dams being minor; net N2O emissions were less than 50 to 70 percent of gross N2O emissions; and the contribution of N2O to GWP is less than 10 percent for net emissions, disregarding N2O degassing emissions. Lima, I., F. M. Ramos, L. A. W. Bambace, and R. R. Rosa. 2008. “Methane Emissions from Large Dams as Renewable Energy Resources: A Developing Nation Perspective.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 13 (2008): 193–206. Engineering technologies are proposed to avoid CH4 emissions to the atmosphere through reservoir surfaces, turbines and spillways, and to recover the nonemitted CH4 for power generation. 2007 Cole, J. J., Y. T. Prairie, N. F. Caraco, W. H. McDowell, L. J. Tranvik, R. R. Striegl, C. M. Duarte, P. Kortelainen, J. A. Downing, J. Middleburg, and J. M. Melack. “Plumbing the Global Carbon Cycle: Integrating Inland Waters into the Terrestrial Carbon Budget.” Ecosystems 10 (2007): 172–185. doi:10.1007/s10021-006-9013-8. A budget for the role of inland water ecosystems in the global carbon cycle is presented, providing useful insight about the storage, oxidation, and transport of terrestrial carbon. Kemenes, A., B. R. Forsberg, and J. M. Melack. “Methane Release Below a Tropical Hydroelectric Dam.” Geophysical Research Letters 34 (2007): L12809. doi:10.1029/2007 GL029479. Emissions of CH4 downstream of Balbina (Brazil) were calculated from regular measurements of degassing in the outflow of the turbines and downstream diffusive losses. The downstream emission alone represented 3 percent of all methane released from the central Amazon floodplain. 2006 Guérin, F., G. Abril, S. Richard, B. Burban, C. Reynouard, P. Seyler, and R. Delmas. “Methane and Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Tropical Reservoirs: Significance of Downstream Rivers.” Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L21407. doi:10.1029/2006GL027929. CH4 and CO2 were measured in three tropical reservoirs and downstream of the dams, in French Guiana (Petit Saut) and Brazil (Balbina and Samuel). Significant downstream emissions were observed, and CH4 degassing appeared to be significant, although it could not be quantified. Santos, M. A., L. P. Rosa, B. Matvienko, E. Sikar, and E. D. Santos. “Gross Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Hydro-Power Reservoir Compared to Thermo-Power Plants.” Energy Policy 34 (2006): 481–488. Data from measurements at Miranda, Barra Bonita, Segredo, Tres Marias, Xingó, Samuel, Tucuruí, Itaipu, and Serra da Mesa used in comparisons between emissions from hydropower plants and their thermo-based equivalents. The estimated values for hydropower plants posted lower emissions than their equivalent thermobased counterparts. (continued on next page) (continued) Bibliograph y and References 39 Bibliography Year Paper Description 2005 Abril, G., F. Guérin, S. Richard, R. Delmas, C. Galy-Lacaux, P. Gosse, A. Tremblay, L. Varfalvy, M. A. Santos, and B. Matvienko. “Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions and the Carbon Budget of a 10-Year-Old Tropical Reservoir (Petit-Saut, French Guiana).” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 19 (2005): GB 4007. doi:10.1029/2005GB002457. CO2 and CH4 emissions during the first 10 years of a special tropical reservoir were analyzed. Emissions reduce with age, degassing is a major CH4 pathway, with terrestrial carbon being the main source. Delmas, R., S. Richard, F. Guérin, G. Abril, C. Galy-Lacaux, and A. Grégoire. “Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Hydroelectric Reservoir of Petit Saut (French Guiana) and Potential Impacts.” In Tremblay, A., L. Varfalvy, C. Roehm and M. Garneau, eds. Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Fluxes and Processes, Hydroelectric Reservoirs and Natural Environments. Environmental Science Series, 293–312. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2005. Net GHG emissions for a 100-year period are estimated and compared with fossil fuel alternatives, finding values similar to emissions for a coal power plant after 25 years, 35 years for oil, and 57 years for gas plants. Fearnside, P. M. “Brazil’s Samuel Dam: Lessons for Hydroelectric Development Policy and the Environment in Amazonia.” Environmental Management 35 (2005): 1–19. Impacts of Brazil’s Samuel Dam are estimated, including environmental costs, GHG emissions, social costs and mitigation measures. Fearnside, P. M. “Do Hydroelectric Dams Mitigate Global Warming? The Case of Brazil’s Curuá-Una Dam.” Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10 (2005): 675–691. GHG emissions at Curuá-Una are assessed for the year 1990, and estimated to be 3.6 times greater than an equivalent oil power plant. Tremblay, A., L. Varfalvy, C. Roehm, and M. Garneau, eds. Greenhouse Gas Emissions—Fluxes and Processes, Hydroelectric Reservoirs and Natural Environments. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 2005. ISBN 3-540-23455-1. Comprehensive state-of-the art on GHG in 2005. 2002 Duchemin, E., M. Lucotte, V. St. Louis, and R. Canuel. 2002. “Hydroelectric Reservoirs as an Anthropogenic Source of Greenhouse Gases.” World Resource Review 14, no. 3 (2002): 334–353. Synthesis of CO2, CH4, and N2O emissions from reservoirs in boreal, temperate and tropical regions are measured by different research teams. Diffusive fluxes from tropical reservoirs are found to be much higher than those from northern reservoirs. Fearnside, P. M. “Greenhouse Gas Emissions from a Hydroelectric Reservoir (Brazil’s Tucuruí Dam) and the Energy Policy Implication.” Water Air Soil Pollution 133 (2002): 69–96. Tucurui’s GHG emissions (from Fearnside’s previous studies) are adapted to assess the impacts of hydro compared to fossil fuels. Although many dams in Amazonia are expected to have positive balance as compared to fossil fuels, substantial emissions indicated by the present study reduce the benefits often attributed to hydro. (continued on next page) (continued) INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 40 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Bibliography Year Paper Description Rosa, L. P., B. Matvienko, M. A. Santos, and E. Sikar. First Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions. Background Reports: Carbon Dioxide and Methane Emissions from Brazilian Hydroelectric Reservoirs, Annex B. Brasilia: Ministry of Science and Technology, 2002. CO2 and methane emissions from Brazilian hydroelectric reservoirs are estimated for the Brazilian Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions. 2001 Delmas, R., C. Galy-Lacaux, and S. Richard. “Emissions of Greenhouse Gases from the Tropical Hydroelectric Reservoir of Petit Saut (French Guiana) Compared with Emissions from Thermal Alternatives.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 15 (2001): 993–1003. Net GHG emissions for a 100-year period are estimated and compared with thermal alternatives, finding values similar to emissions for a gas power plant producing the same energy. 2000 St. Louis, V. L., C. A. Kelly, E. Duchemin, J. W. M. Rudd, and D. M. Rosenberg. “Reservoir Surfaces as Sources of Greenhouse Gases to the Atmosphere: A Global Estimate.” Bioscience 50, no. 9 (2000): 766–775. Gives an overview of GHG from reservoirs based on knowledge in 2001 and makes a first estimate of global emissions from reservoirs. 1999 Galy-Lacaux, C., R. Delmas, G. Kouadio, S. Richard, and P. Gosse. “Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Emission from a Hydroelectric Reservoir in Tropical Forest Regions.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 13 (1999): 503–517. Estimates of CO2 and CH4 emissions over a 20-year period are made, based on 3.5 years of data from Petit Saut and an experimental campaign on four older reservoirs in the Ivory Coast. 1997 Fearnside, P. M. “Greenhouse-Gas Emissions from Amazonian Hydroelectric Reservoirs: The Example of Brazil’s Tucuruí Dam as Compared to Fossil Fuel Alternatives.” Environmental Conservation 24, no. 1 (1997): 64–75. Emissions from Tucurui dam are calculated for 100 years. At low annual discount rates (1–2 percent) Tucurui is still 3–4 times better than fossil fuel generation; at discount rates of 15 percent, fossil fuel generation becomes more attractive from a global warming perspective. Galy-Lacaux, C., R. Delmas, C. Jambert, J. F. Dumestre, L. Labroue, S. Richard, and P. Gosse. “Gaseous Emissions and Oxygen Consumption in Hydroelectric Dams: A Case Study in French Guiana.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 11, no. 4 (1997): 471–483. Results from two years of measurement of CO2, CH4 and H2S from Petit Saut reservoir. 1995 Duchemin, E., M. Lucotte, R. Camuel, and A. Chamberland, A. “Production of the Greenhouse Gases CH4 and CO2 by Hydroelectric Reservoirs in the Boreal Region.” Global Biogeochemical Cycles 9, no. 4 (1995): 529–540. CH4 and CO2 in two reservoirs of northern Quebec. Fearnside, P. M. “Hydroelectric Dams in the Brazilian Amazon as Sources of ‘Greenhouse’ Gases.” Environmental Conservation 22 (1995): 7–19. GHG emissions from Amazonian dams are calculated for the year of 1990. Global warming impact of Amazonian Hydro is much higher than fossil-fueled power plants. (continued) Bibliograph y and References 41 IPCC References Reports available at http://www.ipcc.ch Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2000. IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Edited by J. Penman, D. Kruger, I. Galbally, T. Hiraishi, B. Nyenzi, S. Emmanul, L. Buendia, R. Hoppaus, T. Martinsen, J. Meijer, K. Miwa and K. Tanabe. Published for the IPCC by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies, Japan. ISBN 4-88788-000-6 These documents describe recommended procedures for estimating GHG emissions for National GHG Inventories. Reservoirs are contemplated under the general category “wetlands” (defined as “land that is covered or saturated by water for all or part of the year and that does not fall into the forest, cropland, grassland or settlements categories”), and more specifically, under “Land converted to flooded land.” The “managed land proxy”: Emissions and removals from “managed land” are used as a proxy for estimating anthropogenic emissions and removals. The scope of the IPCC (2006) assessment includes guidance on estimating and reporting CO2 emissions, applying a carbon stock change method, and assuming that all the carbon in biomass that existed prior to flooding is emitted. An alternative approach assumes that CO2 emissions can be estimated using default emission factors and aggregated area data. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2003. Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry. Edited by J. Punman, M. Geytarsky, T. Hiraishi, T. Krug, D. Kruger, R. Pipatti, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, K. Tanabe, and F. Wagner. Published by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the IPCC. ISBN 4-88788-003-0 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Edited by H. S. Eggleston, L. Buendia, K. Miwa, T. Ngara, and K. Tanabe. Published by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) for the IPCC. ISBN 4-88788-032-4 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2011. Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN). Edited by O. Edenhofer, R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, K. Seyboth, P. Matschoss, S. Kadner, T. Zwickel, P. Eickemeier, G. Hansen, S. Schloemer, C. von Stechow. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. The SRREN provides an assessment and thorough analysis of renewable energy technologies and their current and potential role in the mitigation of GHG emissions. • Important chapters: • Hydropower • Summary for Policy Makers • Technical Summary • Renewable Energy in the Context of Sustainable Development INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 42 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Additional References Campo, J., and L. Sancholuz. 1998. “Biogeochemical Impacts of Submerging Forests through Large Dams in the Río Negro, Uruguay.” Journal of Environmental Management 54: 59–66. Cullenward, D., and D. Victor. 2006. “The Dam Debate and Its Discontents.” Climatic Change 75 (1–2): 81–86. Downing, J.A., Y. T. Prairie, J. J. Cole, C. M. Duarte, L. J. Tranvik, R. G. Striegl, W. H. McDowell, P. Kortelainen, N. F. Caraco, J. M. Melack, and J. J. Middelburg. 2006. “The Global Abundance and Size Distribution of Lakes, Ponds, and Impoundments.” Limnology and Oceanography 51 (5): 2388–2397. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Edited by Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, and A. Reisinger. Geneva: IPCC. Lehner, B., C. Reidy Liermann, C. Revenga, C. Vörösmarty, B. Fekete, P. Crouzet, P. Döll, M. Endejan, K. Frenken, J. Magome, C. Nilsson, J. C. Robertson, R. Rödel, N. Sindorf, and D. Wisser. 2011. “High- Resolution Mapping of the World’s Reservoirs and Dams for Sustainable River-Flow Management.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9 (9): 494–502. Bibliograph y and References 43 Annex 1 Conversion from moles to grams In chemistry, a mole is considered to be Avogadro’s number (6.02 × 1023) of molecules (or anything) of a substance. So, depending on the density of the substance, the mass of that amount of the substance could vary widely. To convert from moles to grams, you must first find the molar mass of the element or compound. Use the periodic table to read off the atomic mass from an element. If it is a compound, you must know the molecular formula, and then you find the total molar mass of the compound by adding up the atomic masses of each atom in the compound. The unit of the molar mass will be in grams per moles (g/mole). Once you have the molar mass, you can easily convert from grams to moles, and also from moles to grams. Number of moles = (# of grams) ÷ (molar mass) Number of grams = (# of moles) × (molar mass) For the most common GHGs in reservoirs: Element Atomic mass (g/mole) GHG Molar mass (g/mole) N 14.0067 CO2 44.0095 C 12.0107 CH4 16.0107 O 15.9994 N2O 44.0128 H 1.00794 CO2 equivalents (CO2eq or CO2e) The international practice is to express GHG in CO2 equivalents (CO2eq or CO2e). Emissions of gases other than CO2 are translated into CO2eq by multiplying by the respective GWP. From the 2007 IPCC report: Annex 1 – Conversions of Units and CO2 Equivalents Conversion from “g of GHG” to “g of Carbon” The conversion between “g of GHG” and “g of carbon” is directly related to the ratio of the atomic mass of a GHG molecule to the atomic mass of a carbon atom. Essentially, this practice accounts for the carbon in the GHG molecule, as opposed to counting the entire molecule. For carbon dioxide, the ratio of the atomic mass of a CO2 molecule to the atomic mass of a carbon atom is 44:12. ?? To convert from “g of C” to “g of CO2”, multiply by 44/12 ?? To convert from “g of CO2” to “g of C”, multiply by 12/44 ?? Sometimes you find this noted as gC-CO2 or tC-CO2 (to make clear that these “g of C” refer to carbon in a CO2 molecule). For methane, the ratio of the atomic mass of a CH4 molecule to the atomic mass of a carbon atom is 16:12. ?? To convert from g of C to g of CH4, multiply by 16/12 ?? To convert from g of CH4 to g of C, multiply by 12/16 ?? It is important to make clear that these g of C refer to carbon in a CH4 molecule (i.e., NOT CO2eq—not taking into account GWP). It is common to use gC-CH4 or tC-CH4 Carbon dioxide equivalents vs. carbon equivalents Although the international standard is to express emissions in CO2 equivalents (CO2eq), many US sources have expressed emissions data in terms of carbon equivalents (CE) in the past. In particular, the US Environmental Protection Agency has used the carbon equivalent metric in the past for budget documents. For the purposes of national greenhouse gas inventories, emissions are expressed as teragrams of CO2 equivalent (Tg CO2eq). One teragram is equal to 1012 grams, or one million metric tons. ?? To convert from CE to CO2eq, multiply by 44/12 ?? To convert from CO2eq to CE, multiply by 12/44. Gas name Chemical formula GWP for given time horizon 20 years 100 years 500 years Carbon dioxide CO2 1 1 1 Methane CH4 72 25 7.6 Nitrous oxide N2O 289 298 153 Source: 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). GWP relative to CO2 at different time horizon for the most common GHG species in reservoirs: 46 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Annex 2 Annex 2 – Illustration of Main Processes and Parameters Parameters important for creating GHG stock Parameters that modulate the rates of biological processes such as organic matter production, respiration, methanogenesis and CH4 oxidation: ?? concentrations of dissolved oxygen; ?? water temperature; ?? organic matter storage, concentrations and C/N, C/P and N/P ratios in water and in sediments; ?? supply of nutrients; ?? light (absence of turbidity); ?? biomass of plants, algae, bacteria and animals in the reservoir and in drawdown zone; ?? sediment load; and ?? stratification of the reservoir body. Figure 2.3: Carbon dioxide and methane pathways in a freshwater reservoir with an anoxic hypolimnion. For reservoirs with a well-oxygenated water column, methane emissions through pathways (2), (4) and (5) are reduced (adapted from UNESCO/IHA, 2008) Source: UNESCO/IHA Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Freshwater Reservoirs Research Project, GHG Measurement Guidelines for Freshwater Reservoirs (2010). Parameters important for releasing GHG stock Parameters that modulate gas exchange between the atmosphere and the reservoir or downstream river: ?? wind speed and direction; ?? reservoir shape; ?? rainfall; ?? water current speeds; ?? water temperatures; ?? water depth and changes in water depth; ?? reductions in hydrostatic pressure as water is released through low level outlets; ?? increased turbulence downstream of the dam associated with ancillary structures, e.g., spillways and weirs. 48 INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED BY BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES Annex 3 Below are the detailed steps to apply the Tier 1 methodology to estimate GHG emissions from reservoirs (see Section 5.2). Flooded material 1. Identify the reservoir’s exact location (coordinates). Define where it is located—in a tropical, temperate, or boreal zone. Best source would be feasibility study or similar. 2. Identify the size and exact location of the reservoir area at Full Supply Level (FSL). Best source would be feasibility study or similar. 3. Identify type of forests/vegetation in the area of the reservoir. Best source would be EIA study or similar. If not available use local, regional, or global ecological maps. 4. Identify the land use of the reservoir area at FSL. Note specifically percentage of forests, nonvegetated land (agriculture or grasslands), and water bodies. Best source would be EIA study or similar. If not available in reports, use easily available thematic maps, air photos, or satellite images. If no information is available at all assume 90 percent forested areas, 10 percent water bodies for dry ecological zones, and 80 percent forested areas, 20 percent water bodies for wet ecological zones. 5. Identify the type of soils in the area of the reservoir. Best source would be EIA study or similar. If not available, use local or regional soil maps. 6. Use AFOLU Table 4.8 (or 4.12) to estimate above-ground biomass for identified type of forests. Calculate total biomass for reservoir area by applying percentage of forested/vegetated area. 7. Use AFOLU Table 4.3 to calculate the fraction of carbon in above-ground biomass. Calculate total above-ground biomass carbon for the reservoir area. 8. Use AFOLU Table 2.2 to estimate amount of carbon in litter for the reservoir area. Calculate total litter carbon in reservoir area by applying percentage of forested/vegetated area. 9. Use AFOLU Table 2.3 to estimate amount of carbon in soil for the reservoir area. Calculate total soil carbon in reservoir area by applying total reservoir area. 10. Add the total amount of carbon in the reservoir area from biomass, litter, and soil and apply the assumption of 50 percent available for decomposition. This is the total amount of carbon Detailed Steps for Tier 1 Estimation of GHG from Reservoirs stock to be emitted from the reservoir during its life span. 11. Depending on latitude of reservoir, estimate how much of the total amount of available carbon stock will be emitted as CO2 and how much will be emitted as CH4. For tropical use CH4/CO2 = 7 percent, and for temperate and boreal use CH4/CO2 = 1.5 percent 12. Convert the total amount of available carbon stock that will be emitted as CO2 by multiplying by 44/12 (see Annex 1). 13. Convert the total amount of available carbon stock that will be emitted as CH4 by multiplying by 16/12 (see Annex 1). 14. Calculate the total emitted CO2 equivalents by multiplying the amount of CH4 by 25 (see Annex 1) and add to the total emitted CO2. 15. Divide the total amount of emitted CO2 equivalents by 100 years to get an average annual rate of emission caused by flooded biomass and soil carbon. Removal of sink 16. Use AFOLU Table 4.9 (or 4.12) to estimate above-ground biomass growth per km2 for identified type of forests. Calculate total biomass growth for reservoir area by applying percentage of forested/vegetated area. 17. Apply fraction of carbon (AFOLU Table 4.3) to calculate annual sink of carbon for terrestrial areas. Convert to CO2 by applying a factor of 44/12. 18. Apply a standard emission from natural waters (463 t CO2/km2 and year [Barros et al. 2011]) for the existing area of water bodies to estimate the total natural emissions from the reservoir area. 19. Calculate the net sink per year for the reservoir by subtracting the natural emissions per year (water bodies) from the natural sink (terrestrial forests). Net emissions14 Add the annual emission caused by flooded biomass and soil carbon in CO2 equivalents to the annual net sink to get the total net GHG emissions 14 Note that net emissions here refer only to biochemical processes and do not include emissions from dam construction or baseline emissions generated by alternatives built if the reservoir were not constructed, see Section 2.2. INTERIM TECHNICAL NOTE: GREENHOUSE GASES FROM RESERVOIRS CAUSED B 50 Y BIOCHEMICAL PROCESSES WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433