DECARBONIZING DEVELOPMENT Decarbonizing Development: Planning Ahead for a Future with Zero Emissions Stabilizing climate change entails bringing net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO) to zero. CO, stays in the atmosphere for hundreds, if not thousands, of years. As long as we emit more than we capture or offset through carbon sinks (such as forests), concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere will keep rising, and the climate will keep warming. Countries can follow three principles in their efforts to create a zero-carbon future: (a) planning ahead for a future with zero emissions, (b) getting carbon prices and policies right, and (c) smoothing the transition and protecting the poor. This policy note is drawn from Decarbonizing Development: Three Steps to a Zero-Carbon Future (2015) by Marianne Fay, Stephane Hallegatte, Adrien Vogt-Schilb, Julie Rozenberg, Ulf Narloch, and Tom Kerr. Washington, DC: World Bank. Global leaders have agreed to stabilize climate change at Pillar 1: Decreasing carbon intensity of global electricity about 2oC above preindustrial temperatures; to reach this production to near zero around 2050 is at the core of the target, global carbon emissions should be reduced to zero decarbonization transition. This objective implies that before 2100. Even if the target were higher than 20C, both high-income countries and emerging economies carbon neutrality would still be needed to stabilize the (such as China, India, and South Africa) would have to climate. As long as we emit more than we capture or offset decarbonize electricity around midcentury. Low-income through carbon sinks (such as forests), concentrations of countries-which represent a small share of global electric- CO2 in the atmosphere will keep rising, and the climate ity consumption-would have a few more decades, but they will keep warming. And there are other reasons to bring too would eventually need to converge to zero-emissions emissions to zero, linked to other environmental prob- electricity. lems unrelated to climate change, such as local air pollu- Carbon-neutral electricity can be produced from tion and ocean acidification. tionandocen acdifcaton.renewable sources (windmills, photovoltaic power, con- With the scientific consensus suggesting we need to be at centrated solar power, large dams and small hydropower, zero net emissions before 2100, the key question is what and biomass), nuclear power, and fossil-fuel resources policy makers should do to get there. with carbon capture and storage (CCS). In addition, bio- energy with CCS can produce electricity with negative How We Can Achieve Zero Net Emissions emissions. Zero carbon electricity can be achieved using The latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate only a subset of these technologies, for instance, even if Change identified many technically feasible pathways to u lable reach carbon neutrality by the end of the century, based on the consensus of 830 scientists, engineers, and economists Pillar 2: Switching from fossil fuel to low-carbon electric- from over 80 countries and formally endorsed by the ity will drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions in governments of 194 countries. Those pathways rely on four energy-intensive sectors, such as transportation, build- pillars (figure 1). ing, and industry. Technologies such as electric and prodctin tonea zeo arund2050is t te coe o th FIGURE 1 The Four Pillars of Decarbonization Decarbonization Fuel shifting Efficiency in all Preservation and of electricity (especially to sectors, including increase of generation, i.e. electricity) in building, natural carbon renewable and/or transport, transport, and sinks Carbon Capture heating, and agriculture and Sequestration industries Source:All photos Shutterstock. Used with the permission of the photographers and Shutterstock. Further permission required for reuse. plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric stoves and heat pumps, and temfor s,butrstan e clim at e issin electric furnaces are more energy efficient than fossil-fueled elwhr:fo im ovdntalcbnsnk-rex - alternatives and will reduce carbon emissions when pow- pl,truhefesainobterolmngmn-r ered by clean electricity.bycmiigbonry(eealeegydivdfm Pillar 3: Boosting energy efficiency can reduce emissions, bims,ucaswo,rp,orrprede)wthCS make electrification easier, and save on energy bills. Cutiscnteeoepoeda ifrn pesars Boosting energy efficiency has high potential for the build- ing, transport, and industry sectors. In agriculture and cant progress on all four. forestry, efficiency entails minimizing the loss and waste of food, increasing the supply of less emission-intensive prod- Prioritizing on the Move to Net Zero ucts (including biofuels and wood materials), and changing Emissions food demand to shift consumption toward low-carbon With the end goal clear, the relevant question for policy food products and to free up land for other mitigation makers is how to prioritize. Many emission-reduction activities. activties.options come at a net benefit for the society, such as those Pillar 4: Managing landscapes better will help countries that save energy or offer such co-benefits as reduced air increase their ability to act as net carbon sinks. Models pollution or less traffic congestion. But focusing on the reviewed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate cheapest options and on short-term benefit without Change show that the agriculture and forestry sector will considering structural changes and longer-term objectives likely need to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030 if the 2oC could be shortsighted and result in carbon-intensive lock-ins target is to be reached. Mitigation policies can reduce emis- and more expense in the longer term. sions from land management and land use conversion and Timing is everything. As technologies evolve, they can increase the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. improve, become more affordable, and open up new Stabilizing the climate requires bringing net emissions of options. But if everyone waits, those technologies will not long-lived greenhouse gasses to zero. That means positive be invented, and they certainly will neither improve nor 2 FIGURE 2 Using a Longer Time Frame Changes the Take the case of a low-carbon strategy analysis done for Optimal Policy Mix for Brazil Brazil. As figure 2 shows, when striving to reach a particular goal in 2020, the easiest route is to take marginal actions that are cheap and easy to implement but that have a limited potential (like improved energy efficiency in refineries). In _Z contrast, if this goal is a step toward a more ambitious one in 2030, more ambitious actions-investments in subways, trains, and waterways-that cost more and take longer to implement would be undertaken. The latter approach would result in the same amount of emission reduction by 2020, but it would keep the door open to deeper decarbonization by E 2030. Applied to full decarbonization, this analysis shows the need to look not only at the cheapest emission reductions, but also at more costly options that will be required to reach In the 2020 strategy In the 2030 strategy waitin f Improvement in refineries " Subway, train, and waterways To avoid lock-ins and regrets in a few decades, Other measures countries can use short-term sectoral targets to trigger Source: A. Vogt-Schilb, S. Hallegatte, and C. de Gouvello. 2014. "Marginal and monitor progress along the four pillars of Abatement Cost Curves and Quality of Emission Reductions: A Case Study decarbonization. Doing so would ensure not only that the on Brazil." Climate Policy. doi:1 0.1080/14693062.2014.953908. Note: The 2020 and 2030 bars amount to an equivalent amount of emission appropriate quantity of emission reductions is achieved reduction, although they include a different mix of measures. over the short term, but also that the quality of these abatements is appropriate, which means that they put the country on a cost-effective pathway toward decarboniza- become more affordable. And in the face of development tion. For instance, a goal maybe to produce 30 percent of pressure, especially in rapidly urbanizing countries, waiting the electricity from renewable sources by 2030, drive cars for technological improvements is not always an option. that emit fewer than 80 grams of CO per kilometer by Developing countries, which still need to build much infra- 2025, or use wood materials-from sustainably managed structure, should take the opportunity to plan ahead to forests-instead of steel and cement in half of the new grow and develop with their carbon footprint in mind, buildings by 2035. A short-term goal expressed as an Action should focus on what provides co-benefits and economy-wide emission target is also useful but cannot synergies with development, but also on what is most replace those sectoral targets, since it could be reached with marginal actions that do not contribute sufficiently unplanned low-density urban expansion or the cutting down of old-growth forests. Some abatement actions will Sectoral pathways also provide operational guidance for take time to realize their benefits-such as building clean sector plans and make it possible to use existing regulators transportation infrastructure and developing new technol- and institutions to design and implement the measures. ogies. In these cases, measures need to be implemented Table 1 provides examples of possible sectoral targets for a early in order to reach the end goal of full decarbonization. country or city. 3  WORLD BANKGROUP TABLE 1 Examples of Possible Sectoral Targets for Tracking Progress toward the Net Zero End Goal Pillar Sector Example of target Rationale Decarbonize Power Produce at least 30% of This type of target prevents the power sector from locking into intermediate solutions, such as gas power or electricity Generation electricity from renewable enhanced coal power, which do not have the potential to fully decarbonize the power sector. It also supports the production sources by 2025 development of new technologies (e.g., solar PV and smart grid able to manage intermittency). Efficiency Transport Get 50 percent of the population At city scale, this target helps reduce energy expenditures, congestion and local pollution, and it contributes to to commute by public transport reduced CO2 emissions and to building zero-carbon cities. Accessible public transit can also influence household (bus, metro, tram) in 2025 in a city localization choices, which have long-term consequences on energy and carbon efficiency. Building Build 50% of zero energy Zero-energy buildings are needed for full decarbonization, to reduce energy bills and increase comfort. Action must buildings in 2030 start early because of the long lifetime of buildings. Cities Transit-oriented urban Promoting urban development with access to public transport helps avoids urban sprawl. Urban sprawl is mostly development irreversible, and locks inhabitants in carbon-intensive pathways as it makes it much more difficult to use public transit systems. Fuel shifting/ Transport Reach 1% of electric Favoring electric vehicles prevents locking into marginal improvements of combustion engines, and contributes to substitution vehicles in 2015 total decarbonization, as long as the electricity sector is being decarbonized at the same time. Buildings/ Use 20% of sustainable wood in Wood material contributes to reaching zero carbon, if produced sustainably. It is one of the options to reduce Forestry new building structure by 2025 emissions from construction materials. Natural Forestry Stop deforestation by 2017 Deforestation (and associated loss of ecosystem services) are largely irreversible, so action in this domain carbon sinks cannot wait. 4