Food Price Watch POVERTY REDUCTION AND EQUITY GROUP POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK APRIL 2012 71420 Global food prices have increased by 8% in the last four months since December 2011, and in March 2012 were only 6% below their February 2011 historical peak. All key food prices have increased, except for rice. Increasing international oil prices, adverse weather conditions, Asia’s strong demand for food imports, and the persistent European financial crisis have contributed to this increase, notwithstanding the projected bumper harvests of rice and coarse grains and the corresponding increase in ending food stocks. Domestic prices remain high in many parts of the world, with the magnitude of increases typically exceeding price declines across countries. If the current production forecasts for 2012/13 do not materialize, global food prices could reach higher levels, underscoring the need to remain vigilant and improve the monitoring of early signals of global and regional crises. Global Price Trends only 5% lower than in February 2011, fats and oils 8% lower, and other foods 5% lower. With respect to March After four months of consecutive price declines, the World 2011—that is, the yearly variation—prices remain only 1% Bank’s Food Price Index increased by 8% from December below their levels 12 months ago (1% lower for grains, 2% 2011 to March 2012. The price indices of grains, fats and for fats and oils, and 0% for other foods). Despite this tick oils, and other foods all increased in each month since in year-on-year prices, the sustained increase in the recent January 2012 (figure 1). Fats and oils increased the most, with a quarterly increase of 13%, followed by an increase of 6% in the global price of other foods and 4% in the price of Figure 1. World Bank Food Price Index grains. The fertilizer index remained almost unchanged in 300 the recent quarter, halting the strong decline observed 250 during the last quarter of 2011 (table 1). 200 The prices of all key staples increased, except for rice. Maize prices increased by 9%, soybean oil by 7%, wheat 150 (U.S. HRW) by 6%, and sugar (world) by 5%. These price 100 variations were the largest increases observed since June 50 and July of 2011. The price of rice (Thai, 5%) declined in 0 2007M01 2007M05 2007M09 2008M01 2008M05 2008M09 2009M01 2009M05 2009M09 2010M01 2010M05 2010M09 2011M01 2011M05 2011M09 2012M01 the same period by 6%, adding to the price decline of 2% observed in the fourth quarter of 2011. Both abundant supply and strong competition among exporters have caused the international price of rice to decline. food grains fats & oils other food Global food prices remain high, and only 6% below Source: World Bank, DECPG. Note: The Food Price Index weighs export prices of a variety of food commodities around the world their February 2011 historical peak. The price of grains is in nominal U.S. dollar prices, 2005 = 100. Food Price Watch, produced by the Poverty Reduction and Equity group at the World Bank, is a series that aims at drawing attention to trends in domestic food prices in low- and middle-income countries and their policy implications. Contact: José Cuesta (jcuesta@worldbank.org) Table 1. Price Change of Key Food Commodities Weather conditions have affected key Dec 2011– Feb 2011– Mar 2011– exporters; extreme cold in Europe, the Mar 2012 Mar 2012 Feb 2012 Russian Federation, and other countries Indices (%) (%) (%) from the Commonwealth of Food 8 -6 -1 Independent States (CIS) has had an impact on wheat prices,4 while Fats and oils 13 -8 -2 excessively hot and dry conditions in Grains 4 -5 -1 South America—especially in Brazil and Other 6 -5 0 Argentina5—have contributed to price Fertilizer -1 13 16 increases for sugar, maize, and soybeans. Prices The unseasonably dry conditions in the Maize 9 -4 -3 southwest of the United States have also Rice (Thai, 5%) -6 5 11 affected cereal prices.6 A weaker U.S. Wheat (U.S. HRW) 6 -18 -10 dollar vis-à-vis major currencies, lower freight prices, and strong demands from Sugar (world) 5 -18 -8 Asian importers (especially for maize) Soybean oil 7 -6 -2 have all bolstered import demand and Crude oil, average 13 20 8 put upward pressure on prices. Seasonal Source: World Bank, DECPG. factors have also contributed to price increases, because the main winter cereal quarter after a period of sustained decreases underscores crops in the northern hemisphere and the main summer the volatility of food prices. season crop in the southern hemisphere do not begin until The price of crude oil has also increased steadily since March–April. 7 December 2011, after six months of volatile movements. A number of other factors have kept upward pressures Prices of oil affect food prices through their effects on the on prices at bay. Should these factors stick for a while, they prices of fertilizers, transportation costs, and incentives for might prevent a continued food price upsurge. The the diversion of food production into biofuels.1 The price slowdown in maize use for ethanol production in the of a barrel of crude oil averaged US$117 in March, 13% United States (unchanged for 2011/12 after years of higher than its average in December 2011, and 8% higher double-digit annual growth8) and downward pressures than a year ago in March 2011. Uncertainty over supply from weak global demand due to the persistent euro crisis conditions explains most of the oil price increase. are factors keeping upward price pressures under control. Geopolitical tensions have limited supplies from South Record prices in late 2010 and early 2011 led to increased Sudan, the Syrian Arab Republic, and the Republic of production of major crops worldwide, and are a key factor Yemen. The announced EU embargo and U.S. sanctions on in the strong projections for the 2012/13 season. The Food companies dealing with Iranian banks will be implemented and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects an increase in July this year, putting pressure on European and Asian of 4% in world cereal production between 2010/11 and buyers to identify alternative sources of oil. It is expected 2011/2012, while the Agricultural Market Information that sanctions could reduce Iranian oil exports up to 1 System (AMIS) forecasts a global 1.9% increase in cereal million barrels per day.2 Nonetheless, it is hard to predict at production into the 2012/13 season.9 this point the extent and persistence of those increases, Maize production prospects in China have improved, although experts consider that crude oil supply disruptions and Brazil’s planted maize area for the second growing typically cause a rather small and mostly transitory increase season is also anticipated to exceed that of previous years. in the real price of oil (different from larger and more This is also the case for India and Pakistan’s rice crops, with persistent increases in world prices caused by either new record highs expected for April 2012 rice crops. A precautionary or actual demand increases in a strong world large spring rice harvest is also expected in Vietnam.10 economy).3 However, large purchases of rice by China and Nigeria and Factors other than turbulent oil markets have also the government of Thailand’s recent extension of its rice contributed to the increase in food commodities’ prices. price support scheme have led to a slight increase in the POVERTY REDUCTION & EQUITY GROUP • WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK GROUP 2 export price of Thai rice between February and March countries, food security alerts and above-average assistance 2012.11 Winter wheat planting in Russia and the United projections have been issued recently in parts of East and States is also expected to increase,12 but declines forecasted West Africa.17 This evidence paints a gloomy picture, but for production in Australia and the Black Sea region may are we heading toward a new global food crisis? Production lead to a 1.4% decline in world wheat production in outlooks remain strong for 2012/13, but to answer this 2011/12.13 The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) question, we need a clear definition of what constitutes a and the FAO recently forecasted increases in the ending global food crisis. Unfortunately, that definition is elusive, stocks of wheat14 and rice and a decline in the stocks of and coming up with a consensus remains a challenge (box maize for 2011/12.15 Altogether, these changes are 1). Consequently, there is no generally accepted, expected to increase the stock-to-use ratio of all cereals to comprehensive mechanism to identify the onset of a global 22.1 percent, up from 21.7 percent in 2010/2011. food crisis. This is not a purely academic exercise, because Domestic prices remain high, especially in Africa. In the lack of consensus may affect the timing and the nature of countries with large food imports, higher global food prices responses and, ultimately, impacts of the crisis. For example, get passed through to domestic prices. But local and regional adequate responses may well differ in situations of severe factors are also in play in many countries. Specific factors transitory food insecurity compared to those of chronic such as trade restrictions between Sudan and South Sudan; hunger, or in predictable and cyclical situations compared to farmers and traders hoarding stocks in anticipation of those of unpredictable or unseasonal shocks affecting food higher prices in Ethiopia and Nigeria; and civil unrest in security.18 northern Mali and northeastern Nigeria along with high To address this gap, the World Bank is currently fuel and transportation costs and weather conditions have developing a monitoring framework that defines, all contributed to maintaining high domestic food prices.16 identifies, and monitors food price crises at both global However, notwithstanding their high levels, factors such as and national levels. This framework focuses on global the lifting of the export ban in Tanzania; the resumption of prices and does not directly include other factors that are trade flows between Nigeria and the Sahel; and good weather also relevant from a point of view of global food security conditions in Central Asia have kept downward pressures crises (such as food access, distribution, and regional and on prices in some domestic and neighboring markets. country-specific vulnerabilities). In fact, rather than Price increases in domestic markets have been developing a conceptual definition of crisis as those substantial when they occur, and have been larger than reported in box 1, the exercise seeks an operational price declines across countries. Wheat price increases definition, or indicator, that will monitor how close global between March 2011 and March 2012 (table 2) reached food prices are from a level considered at crisis. In 92% in Belarus and 56% in Moldova, while they declined concrete, to choose that indicator, the analysis compares by 30% in El Salvador, 19% in Kyrgyzstan, and 16% in the capacity of a number of triggers for global food prices South Africa. The price of maize rose by 82% in Malawi, to predict the global price hikes of June 2008 and 80% in Ethiopia, and 71% in Mexico. The largest maize February 2011. The analysis then compares when those declines occurred in Honduras (31%), Somalia (20%), and triggers would have sounded an alert about the crisis (that El Salvador (19%). Rice prices in the same period rose by is, how early with respect to the crisis peak), and how long 125% in Uganda, 54% in Tanzania, and 38% in Rwanda. In the alerts would have been active. The best performing turn, Bolivia saw its rice prices decline by a more modest trigger (see box 2) is then used to monitor where current 21% and Bangladesh’s declined by 18%. Similarly, from global prices stand with respect to the selected crisis December 2011 to February 2012, there were larger price threshold. increases (than price declines) for maize and rice, as Based on the best performing trigger (the 3 SD reported in table 2. criterion), figure 2 shows that the detrended Global Food Price Index in March 2012 is still below the crisis threshold. Toward a New Crisis? However, current high food prices are not far from the high In addition to the three months of consecutive increases of global food price levels observed in 2008 and 2011, global food prices and high domestic prices in many stressing the need to remain vigilant. POVERTY REDUCTION & EQUITY GROUP • WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK GROUP 3 Table 2. Domestic Price Movements Quarterly Price Movements: December 2011 – February 2012 Wheat % change Maize % change Dem. Rep. of Congo, Kinshasa, wheat (flour), retail (franc Congolais/kg) 16 Malawi, Mzimba, maize, retail (kwacha/kg) 74 Bangladesh, Dhaka, wheat (flour), retail (taka/kg) 10 United Republic of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, maize, wholesale (US$/ton) 31 India, Delhi, wheat, retail (Indian rupee/kg) 6 Ukraine, natl. average, maize (bid EXW processing), wholesale (hryvnia/ton) 19 Ukraine, natl. average, wheat, 3rd class (bis EXW, processing), wholesale 5 Honduras, San Pedro Sula, maize (white), wholesale (US$/kg) 11 (hryvnia/ton) El Salvador, San Salvador, wheat (flour), retail (US$/kg) -13 Costa Rica, natl. average, maize (white), wholesale (US$/kg) -15 Sudan, Khartoum, wheat, wholesale (Sudanese pound/local) -12 Panama, Panama City, maize, retail (balboa/kg) -14 Georgia, natl. average, wheat (flour), retail (lari/kg) -6 Kenya, Nairobi, maize, wholesale (US$/ton) -12 Rice % change Sorghum % change United Republic of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, rice, wholesale (US$/ton) 34 Haiti, Port-au-Prince, sorghum, retail (gourde/local) 24 Uganda, Kampala, rice, wholesale (US$/kg) 19 Sudan, Khartoum, sorghum (feterita), wholesale (Sudanese pound/local) 18 Nicaragua, Managua, rice (3rd quality), wholesale (cordoba oro/kg) 11 Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, sorghum (white), wholesale (Ethiopian birr/local) 4 Pakistan, Karachi, rice (basmati), retail (Pakistan rupee/kg) 8 Somalia, Baidoa, sorghum (red), retail (Somali shilling/kg) -46 Cambodia, Phnom Penh, rice (mix), wholesale (riel/kg) -18 El Salvador, San Salvador, sorghum (maicillo), wholesale (US$/kg) -21 Somalia, Mogadishu, rice (imported), retail (Somali shilling/kg) -14 Togo, Lomé, sorghum, retail (CFA franc/kg) -5 Dem. Rep. of Congo, Kinshasa, rice (imported), retail (franc Congolais/kg) -11 Annual Price Movements: February 2011–February 2012 Wheat % change Maize % change Belarus, natl. average, wheat (flour), retail (Belarussian ruble/kg) 92 Malawi, Mzuzu, maize, retail (kwacha/kg) 82 Moldova, Chisinau, wheat (flour), retail (Moldovan leu/kg) 56 Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, maize, wholesale (Ethiopian birr/local) 80 Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, wheat (white), wholesale (Ethiopian birr/local) 22 Mexico, Guadalajara, maize (white), wholesale (Mexican peso/kg) 71 Dem. Rep. of Congo, Kinshasa, wheat (flour), retail (franc Congolais/kg) 19 Kenya, Kisumu, maize, wholesale (US$/ton) 66 Bhutan, Trashigang, wheat (flour), retail (ngultrum/kg) 19 South Africa, Randfontein, maize (white), wholesale (rand/ton) 53 Bolivia, La Paz, wheat flour, wholesale (boliviano/kg) 10 Rwanda, Kigali, maize, wholesale (US$/ton) 49 Cape Verde, Santiago, wheat (flour, imported), retail (escudo/kg) 10 United Republic of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, maize, wholesale (US$/ton) 39 El Salvador, San Salvador, wheat (flour), retail (US$/kg) -30 Panama, Panama City, maize, retail (balboa/kg) 32 Kyrgyzstan, Bishkek, wheat flour (1st grade), retail (som/kg) -19 Honduras, San Pedro Sula, maize (white), wholesale (US$/kg) -31 South Africa, Randfontein, wheat, wholesale (rand/ton) -16 Somalia, Mogadishu, maize (white), retail (Somali shilling/kg) -20 Georgia, natl. average, wheat (flour), retail (lari/kg) -11 El Salvador, San Salvador, maize (white), wholesale (US$/kg) -19 Ukraine, natl. average, wheat, 3rd class (bis EXW, processing), wholesale -9 Togo, Lomé, maize (white), retail (CFA Franc /Kg) -12 (hryvnia/ton) Rice % change Sorghum % change Uganda, Kampala, rice, wholesale (US$/kg) 125 Sudan, Khartoum, sorghum (feterita), wholesale (Sudanese pound/local) 102 United Republic of Tanzania, Dar es Salaam, rice, wholesale (US$/ton) 54 Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, sorghum (white), wholesale (Ethiopian birr/local) 82 Rwanda, Kigali, rice, wholesale (US$/ton) 38 Burkina Faso, Ouagadougou, sorghum (local), wholesale (CFA franc/local) 35 Pakistan, Karachi, rice (basmati), retail (Pakistan rupee/kg) 26 Haiti, Port-au-Prince, sorghum, retail (gourde/local) 24 Mali, Bamako, rice (local), wholesale (CFA franc/local) 25 Niger, Niamey, sorghum (local), wholesale (CFA franc/local) 15 Indonesia, natl. average, rice, retail (rupiah/kg) 15 Somalia, Baidoa, sorghum (red), retail (Somali shilling/kg) -72 Bolivia, Cochabamba, rice (grano de oro), wholesale (boliviano/kg) -21 El Salvador, San Salvador, sorghum (maicillo), wholesale (US$/kg) -11 Bangladesh, Dhaka, rice (coarse), retail (taka/kg) -18 Togo, Lomé, sorghum, retail (CFA franc/kg) -7 Haiti, Port-au-Prince, rice (imported), retail (gourde/local) -14 Dem. Rep. of Congo, Kinshasa, rice (imported), retail (franc Congolais/kg) -9 Source: FAO, Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). POVERTY REDUCTION & EQUITY GROUP • WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK GROUP 4 Box 1. Defining a Global Food Crisis Although the concept of food insecurity is widely acknowledged as a situation in which not all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food for a healthy and active life,a there is no similar definition of what constitutes a global food crisis. For example, the World Bank’s framework for crisis responses does not differentiate between “crises� or “emergencies�b and specifically uses the term “disaster� to refer to “an event that has caused, or is likely to imminently cause, a major adverse economic and/or social impact associated with natural or man-made crises or disasters.�c Nor does the World Food Program talk about “food crisis�: it speaks of “emergency,� defined as urgent situations in which there is clear evidence that an event or series of events has occurred that causes human suffering or imminently threatens human lives or livelihoods and for which the government does not have the means to remedy. “Emergency� is also described as a demonstrably abnormal event or series of events that produces dislocation in the life of a community on an exceptional scale.d FAO-GIEWS (Global Information and Early Warning System) does not have a definition for “food crisis� either, but does identify three factors by which to determine whether a region is in a food crisis situation: (i) lack of food availability; (ii) limited access to food; and (iii) severe but localized problems.e The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) defines at the national and subnational level an “acute food and livelihood crisis� as: “Highly stressed and critical lack of food access with high and above usual malnutrition and accelerated depletion of livelihood assets that, if continued, will slide the population into Phase 4 [(i.e. Humanitarian Emergency)] or 5 [(i.e. Famine/ Humanitarian Catastrophe)] and/or likely result in chronic poverty.�f To determine the level of food insecurity in a given country, the IPC uses indicators such as crude mortality rate, acute malnutrition, stunting, food access/ availability, dietary diversity, water access/availability, hazards, civil security, livelihood assets, and structural factors. Source: J. Cuesta, A. Htenas and S. Tiwari, A Global Food Price Monitoring Framework for Rapid Response, forthcoming. a. “World Food Summit Plan of Action,� 1996, http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/w3613e/w3613e00.htm. b. “Framework Document for Proposed Loans, Credits, and Grants in the Amount of US$1 2 Billion Equivalent for a Global Food Crisis Response Program,� June 26, 2008, http://imagebank. worldbank.org/servlet/WDSContentServer/IW3P/IB/2008/06/30/000333038_20080630001046/Rendered/PDF/438410BR0REVIS10and0IDAR20081016212.pdf. c. World Bank Operations Policy 8.00, Rapid Response to Crises and Emergencies, http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/PROJECTS/EXTPOLICIES/EXTOPMANUAL/0,,contentMDK 212 38942~menuPK:4564185~pagePK:64709096~piPK:64709108~theSitePK 502184,00 html. d. “Definition of Emergencies,� WFP/EB.1/2005/4-A, http://documents.wfp.org/stellent/groups/public/documents/communications/wfp228800 pdf. e. FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No. 4, December 2011, http://www.fao.org/docrep/014/al983e/al983e00.pdf. f. The IPC was originally developed in Somalia under the FAO Food Security Analysis Unit (FSAU) and by a multiagency partnership of eight major United Nations agencies and international nongovernmental organizations (IPC in Brief, http://www.ipcinfo.org/attachments/02_IPCBrief_EN.pdf). Box 2. Monitoring Global Food Prices The comparison of food price indicators in the table below shows that the trigger of 3 standard deviations (SD) around the mean of the detrended historical series from 1960 to 2007 is the best performer.a This trigger is capable of identifying the two periods of sharp food price spikes in 2008 and 2011. It produces short periods of alerts, close to the global peaks. For the period analyzed, January 2000–December 2011, the monitoring system would have been triggered about 6 percent of the time on account of global food prices, or 9 months out of 144 months between January 2000 and December 2011. The analysis of other indicators shows that they are not very discriminating or fail to predict the global peaks. Table. Incidence of Food Price Alerts, 2000–2011 Indicator World Bank Food Price Index Beyond 75% of the Triggers 2008 Food Price Index 5 consecutive months of 15% price increase in 5 3 SD from 1960–2007 peak price increases consecutive months mean Is the indicator’s trigger able to identify the: … 2008 June peak? Yes Yes No Yes … 2011 February peak? Yes Yes Yes Yes How soon would it have identified the: … 2008 crisis? Oct 2006 Aug 2007 Nov 2007 Mar 2008 … 2011 crisis? Oct 2006b Nov 2010 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Length of alert, in # of months, … in 2008 63 11 7 4 … in 2011 63b 4 4 5 Source: J. Cuesta, A. Htenas and S. Tiwari, A Global Food Price Monitoring Framework for Rapid Response, forthcoming. a. The series are detrended linearly by regressing each series on time during 1960–2007, and then subtracting the trend, which allows concentration on residuals. Then, the mean and standard deviation of the residuals are used to determine the trigger. b. This trigger would have prompted an alert in October 2006 that would have persisted until 2011. POVERTY REDUCTION & EQUITY GROUP • WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK GROUP 5 Figure 2. Global Food Prices and the Crisis Threshold (1960–2012) 2008–12 150 2011 Feb. peak 2008 June peak global food price index 100 1970 energy crisis crisis threshold detrended 50 0 -50 -100 1960M01 1961M01 1962M01 1963M01 1964M01 1965M01 1966M01 1967M01 1968M01 1969M01 1970M01 1971M01 1972M01 1973M01 1974M01 1975M01 1976M01 1977M01 1978M01 1979M01 1980M01 1981M01 1982M01 1983M01 1984M01 1985M01 1986M01 1987M01 1988M01 1989M01 1990M01 1991M01 1992M01 1993M01 1994M01 1995M01 1996M01 1997M01 1998M01 1999M01 2000M01 2001M01 2002M01 2003M01 2004M01 2005M01 2006M01 2007M01 2008M01 2009M01 2010M01 2011M01 2012M01 detrended global food prices global food price index 120 100 2010–12 detrended crisis threshold 80 60 40 20 0 2012m02 2012m03 2010M09 2010M10 2010M11 2010M12 2011M01 2011M02 2011M03 2011M04 2011M05 2011M06 2011M07 2011M08 2011M09 2011M10 2011M11 2011M12 2012M01 Source: J. Cuesta, A. Htenas and S. Tiwari, A Global Food Price Monitoring Framework for Rapid Response, forthcoming. Notes 1. Evidence from the World Bank also shows that the links between crude 10. FEWS NET, Price Watch. oil and agricultural markets have considerably strengthened since 2005, 11. FAO, “Food Prices Remain Nearly Unchanged in March,� FAO Media with the pass-through elasticity from crude oil prices to agricultural prices Centre, April 5, 2012. increasing from 0.22 for the pre-2005 period to 0.28 through 2009 (J. 12. USDA, WASDE-504, April 10, 2012; FEWS NET, Price Watch. Baffes, “More on the Energy/Nonenergy Price Link,� Applied Economics 13. FAO, Crop Prospects. Letters 17: 1555–58 [2010]). 14. However, USDA revised downward its previous estimates for the 2012 2. Commodity Markets Review, World Bank Development Prospects ending stocks in its April WASDE report. Group, Number 122, April 10, 2012, http://www.worldbank.org/ 15. AMIS also reports that these ending stocks will increase in 2012/13 by prospects/commodities. 6% for all grains (8.8% for wheat, 1.6% for coarse grains, and 7.8% for rice 3. E. Ianchovichina, J. Loening, and C. Wood, “How Vulnerable Are Arab [AMIS, “Current Market Situation and Outlook�]). Countries to Global Food Price Shocks?� Policy Research Working Paper 16. Other specific causes refer to appreciation of the rand in South Africa, 6018, World Bank (2012); L. Kilian, “Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: pest attacks in Chad, and the shortage of fertilizers in Kenya (FEWS NET, Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market,� Price Watch). American Economic Review 99(3): 1053–69 (2009). 17. FEWS NET (“East Asia Food Security Alert,� April 6, 2012, and March 4. FAO, “World Food Situation: FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief,� 27, 2012) reports food crisis alerts in parts of Ethiopia, Somalia, Mauritania, Mar. 8, 2012, http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/wfs-home/csdb/en/. Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The U.S. Agency for International 5. FEWS NET (Famine Early Warning System Network), Price Watch: February Food Prices, March 30, 2012. Development (USAID, Food Assistance Outlook Brief, February 2012) 6. FAO, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, No.1, March 2012. projects above-average assistance needs for August 2012 in Burkina Faso, 7. FAO, Crop Prospects. Djibouti, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mali, Mauritania, Somalia, Sudan, and South 8. FAO, Food Outlook, Global Market Analysis, April 2011. Sudan. 9. FAO, Crop Prospects; AMIS, “Current Market Situation and Outlook,� 18. S. Devereux, “Desk Review: Distinguishing between Chronic and presented by A. Abbassian, AMIS Secretary, at the AMIS First Meeting of Transitory Food Insecurity in Emergency Needs Assessments,� IDS, the Rapid Response Forum, Mexico City, April 11, 2012. Sussex, UK (2006). POVERTY REDUCTION & EQUITY GROUP • WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG/POVERTY POVERTY REDUCTION AND ECONOMIC MANAGEMENT (PREM) NETWORK THE WORLD BANK GROUP 6