38402 2006 . 13 www.worldbank.org.ru World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit - 2006 . I. . "" . , . 7,0 . . - , , , . - , . , , , , . , , , . 2006 , , . . 2007 0,9 , , . , , , . , 29 . , , . . 1: 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 1/ , % 5.1 4.7 7.3 7.2 6.4 6.52/ , % 4.9 3.7 7.0 8.3 4.0 4.3 , % 8.7 2.6 12.5 10.9 10.5 12.6 , % GDP 3.0 2.3 1.7 4.2 7.5 8.6 , % 18.6 15.1 12.0 11.7 10.9 7.5 , $ . 35.1 32.8 35.9 60.1 86.6 79.9 3/ , $ . 36.6 47.8 76.9 124.5 182.2 272.5 : , , 1/ - 2006 2/ 2006 3/ 2006 2 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 2006 . 7,4 , 6,5 2006 . - . 2006 . . 10 2006 (4,3 ), 2005 (3,7 ). , , 2005, ( 2). 2: : 2005-2006 . (%) 2005 Jan-Oct Jan-Oct 2005 2006 2.4 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 2.2 5.7 5.3 4.7 1.2 1.2 5.1 , 10.5 9.0 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 : (8 2006 ) , , , . 2006 . ( 10 0,5 ), (-1,5 ). 1,2 . . 10 2006 2005 ( 1 - 4). , 10,2 . (5,3%), / (6,0%), - (6,8%) . , , : (7,8%), (13,2%). 11,1 . , , 4 . , . 3 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 1: ( %) 2: (%) 20 12 - 15 10 8 10 6 5 4 0 2 -2005 -2006 -5 0 - 2005 - 2006 3: - (%) 4: , (%) 14 8 - 12 7 10 6 8 5 6 - - 4 -, 4 3 2 0 , 2 -2 1 - 2005 - 2006 -4 0 - 2005 - 2006 : , , . , , , . , , , . , 15 2007 25-27 2008-2010 . , , . , , ( ) , . , , , . . , , , , , . . 4 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , , 19 . 2006 , , . 2006 12,6 9,9 10 2005 . , , 55 , 10,3 . . - , "" . - , , . 2006 ( ) 13 . . 2004- 2005 . 30-45 , ó , ( «» 2005 ). 17 ( 4). 2006 ó , . 3: (% ) 2004 2005 2006-9M /, , 4.1 4.0 3.9 14.8 13.4 19.1 16.5 16.8 17.5 , 3.3 3.3 3.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.3 1.6 2.1 1.2 1.4 1.2 , 3.6 3.8 4.9 , 7.1 6.6 7.0 3.6 3.5 3.6 , . 3.6 3.9 2.8 23.1 25.9 26.0 5.6 5.7 4.6 , 17.6 16.6 10.8 2.2 2.2 2.2 , 2.5 2.4 2.3 : 5 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit Table 4: (% ) 2004 2005 2006-9M /, , 0.9 0.9 1.3 43.3 30.7 43.3 30.9 46.1 18.2 , 18.7 17.6 17.1 0.001 1.1 0.2 , , 0.9 0.9 1.7 , 10.2 5.9 5.5 . 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.1 1.9 2.7 3.8 4.5 11.2 , 6.9 7.1 15.2 , 0.7 0.6 0.4 : 6 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , . 5: , % 4.0 3.0 . 2.0 2006 , 1.0 2003 : 0.0 , -1.0 -2.0 40- 40- 40- 40- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 60- 60- . 2006 -3.0 50- 50- 60- 60- 60- 60- 60- 60- 60- 60- -4.0 , 26 . , : 56,5 . , 32 . 6: , % 2005 . 2006 . 18 , 16 14 14,2 . , 12 2005 (19 . 10 8 ). 6 , 4 2 , 0 2006 , 0002 1002 2002 3002 4002 5002 *6002 , : 29,4 . * - 7: 5: (. . ) 110 2005 2006* 100 2003 2004 2005 ( - ( - 90 ) ) 80 35.4 58.6 84.2 61.7 79.9 70 60 59.9 85.8 118. 3 87.4 111.5 50 40 30 -0.8 -6.3 -10.9 -13.9 2.2 7991 8991 9991 0002 1002 2002 3002 4002 5002 *6002 -8.2 -7.1 -11.9 -7.3 -6.0 26.4 45.2 61.5 40.5 76.2 : : , * 8: , 310.0 90 , , 80 260.0 70 60 . 210.0 50 160.0 40 30 110.0 20 10 22.3 . , 60.0 0 2006 40- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 50- 60- 60- 60- 60- 60- 2,2 . , . ( ) , . : , 7 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 13,9 . 2005 ( 5). , 2006 27 . ( 6). , 277 . . . , 76,6 . . 6: ( . ) 2004 2005 2005 2006 - - () -8.0 1.3 5.3 26.8 3.5 5.9 1.2 17.5 -11.5 -4.6 4.0 9.3 : , , . . . , , "" , . - , , , . , , , 2006 , . , 2006 (), 7,5 9,2 2005 ( 7). , , , . 10 (M0) 19,6 , ( ) 33 . 9, 2004 M2 . 7: - 1- 2- 3- - 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 2005 2006 , % 5.3 5.0 2.5 1.2 0.7 1.0 9.2 7.5 , % 2.4 2.8 2.0 1.1 1.8 1.9 7.1 6.5 M2, % 2.6 2.1 10.0 15.0 7.4 9.4 21.8 28.5 : 8 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 9: (M2), . 9000.00 8000.00 7000.00 6000.00 5000.00 4000.00 3000.00 2000.00 1000.00 0.00 : . - . 2006 , ( 7,6 . 2006 ), . , , , ( 10). 2006 . 20- . . 2006 . , , , , . , , . 9 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 10: (. . ) (US$/) 12 0.04 10 0.035 8 6 0.03 4 2 0.025 0 I2003 -2 II2003 III2003 IV IV IV 2003 I2004 II2004 III2004 2004 I2005 II2005 III2005 2005 I2006 II2006 III2006 0.02 -4 -6 0.015 , , / - . , , . . , " - 2007 " - . , , , 0 10 . , . 6,5-8,0 2007 , 5,5-7,0 . ( ). 2005 , , - 2006 (6,5 ), , , 2005 , 7,1 . , , 2006 2007 . 2006 , 1892 . 8,6 10 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit . 5102,6 . 23,2 . «» 2005 2006 2005 1 . , 15,2 13,7, . , , , , . 2006 , , . 2006 14,6 , , 2005 . 2006 161 . (0,6 ), 1.1 . ( 4,2 ). 2007 . , 2007 6965.3 . (22,3 ), 5463,5 . (17,5 ) ( 8). , 26 . , , 0,9 . , ( ). (61 ) , . , 4,8 , . 8: (% ) 2006 2006 ( ) 2007 ( ) 2006, % 20.7 23.5 22.3 38.0 17.5 16.7 17.5 26.3 : 1.82 2.10 49.5 2.73 2.63 24.6 2.22 2.13 23.1 1.39 1.59 49.8 - 0.16 0.17 -7.7 0.03 0.03 21.9 0.83 0.89 33.4 , 0.21 0.22 25.2 0.61 0.66 31.5 0.84 0.68 -2.4 5.87 5.91 26.1 16.7 16.0 17.0 30.3 0.81 0.7 0.50 -20.7 : , , 11 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , . , 2006 13,2 11,5 , ( 9), , 2005 (9,1 9,0 , ). (12,6 ), . , 2006 , 10 381 . 30 2005 . , ( ) 10 2006 2005 ( 9). , 2005 2006 . . , , 15 2006 . 9: 2002 2003 2004 2005 - - 2005 2006 , % 11.1 14.9 9.9 8.8 9.1 11.5 , % 16.2 10.9 10.6 10.0 9.0 13.2 , . 138.6 179.4 237.2 301.6 291.8 381 (%, ) 8.1 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.6 7.5 : . , , . ( , ), - , , , , , -, . . , , . 11 . , , , 12 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit . 2007 , . . , , . . , , . . . , , , , , , . , . , , , 2007 . 10, , - . 13 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit II. 2004 . , , , . , - , , , , , . , , , . «» , . - . , ? , , . , , . , , , , . . , - , , - (). , , . , , , , . ( ), , , , , .1 ,2 , -, . , , , , , , , 1 2001 . . Auty, R.M., Resource Abundance and Economic Development, Oxford U Press, 2002. 2 Wright, G. (1990), "The Origins of American Industrial Success, 1879-1940," American Economic Review, 80: 651-668, 14 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , .3 , , , «» , , . , . , , , . , , , , - , , , , , . , , «» «» , , , , . , , , . ? , , , , , , . , , , . , " " ( ), . , . , , , ( , , , ), -, , 4. , , 1960- 1970- , , 3.., , Hausmann, J. Hwang, J. and Rodrik, D. "What You Export Matters," mimeo, Harvard University, 2006 and Rodrik, D. "What is So Special about China's Exports?" mimeo, Harvard University, 2006 4 Nolan, M Pack, H, "Industrial Policy in an Era of Globalization" , , 2003. , . Loayza, N., P. Fajnzylber, C. Calderon, "Economic Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: Stylized Facts, Explanation and forecasts", , 20. 15 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , , . , , , , -, , . , - , , , . , , , , . -, (1950-1970 .), , , , , . . -, , , (), , . , , , « » , , . . , . , , . , , . , . « », . ? , . , , , , . , , , 16 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , . , , , , . , 15 , . , . « » , , . -- . , , Microsoft, Apple IBM, , . , . , . , , - - () . ( 2.1). , , .5 , , , . , , , . . , ( ) .6 , 27- , , , .7 (. 3 ). 5 . Cohen W. and S. Klapper, "A Reprise of Size and R&D," Economic Journal, 1996 6 . Aghion P., R. Blundell, R. Griffith, P. Howitt, and S. Prantl, "The Effects of Entry on Incumbent Innovation and Productivity," NBER Working Paper # 12027, 2006 7 Clarke G., "Do Government Policies that Promote Competition Encourage or Discourage New Product and Process Development in Low and Middle Income Countries?" World Bank Policy Research Working Paper # 3471, 2005 17 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 2.1: (2002 .) 25,000 or more )-( 10,000­24,999 5,000­9,999 1,000­4,999 500­999 250­499 100­249 50­99 25­49 5­24 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 (% ) : NSF (2006) , , a, . , , . . , , , , , , , . , (, ) , . , , , .8 , , . « » 1934 . , 30% , 1977-87 ., 9. , 8 ., , Qian, Y., "How Reform Worked in China," in In Search of Prosperity: Analytic Narratives on Economic Growth (ed. D. Rodrik), and Rodrik , D., "What is So Special about China's Exports?" mimeo, Harvard University, 2006. 9 Foster , L., J. Haltiwanger, and C. Krizan, "Aggregate Productivity Growth: Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence," in New Directions in Productivity Analysis (eds. E. Dean, M. Harper and C. Hulten), 2001 Haltiwanger, and Krizan (2001) 18 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , ( 2.2). , , , , , 20-45% . 2.2: . (.) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 ( , ) : Bartelsman, Haltiwanger, Scarpetta (2005) ? , , , , ó . - , , .10 . ( ) , , , . , , . 10 , Hitotsubashi 2005 , 822 52 , , 40 , . 83 . 44 . . . , " : ", 2006. 19 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , , , , . , , . , , , , . . , .11 , 3 , , . , , (25 ). , ? , 2000 ( , , ). , , , "", , . . , . . , , . , 2000 , , . . , , , , . , . . . 11 (2004) http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/RUSSIANFEDERATIONEXTN/0,,contentMDK:2103295 0~pagePK:141137~piPK:141127~theSitePK:305600,00.html 20 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit III. , : 2005 () , . 1000 , . ( ), , , , , , . . 2006 . 2006 12. . , . . 90- , , . 1998-99 , . , , , , . ? . , , , . , . 40% , . 10 . . , 12 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/RUSSIANFEDERATIONEXTN/0,,contentMDK:2108936 3~menuPK:305618~pagePK:2865066~piPK:2865079~theSitePK:305600,00.html 21 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , , . , , . ? : a) ; b) , ; c) ( ) . . c) . . , , , ( ) , , , . . « », , , , . ( ), ( ). , , . . . « » , . , , . . . . , . 13. , 13 ­ , , , 22 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit , . , 3.1, .14 3.1: 80000 , 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 , . , , -, . , . (58 ) , 30 . ( ) . 2,6 3,1 ; 3,9 5,9 ( 3.2). 14 , , 2-3 . 6 . , , . , 10 , , -- 60 , -- 100 . 23 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit 3.2: ( ) (% ) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 , , , . . , , , . , , , , , , . . , : · , , , , , , , , . , ó (64 ) , , , . · . 2005 , , 2006 , 17 24 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit ( ). ? , , ( ) . , , 20 . , . 20 , , . 29 , . 3.3: 55 20% 50 45 40 35 30 , , . , , . , , (. 11). , , , . , . , , « » ( 25 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit ). , (27 ) , (13 ). , , 72 , , , . , (41 ), (30 ) , (23 ). . , 50 , . , , : 7,7 1,4 . 53 45, 44 28 , ( 3.4). 3.4: , 80 100 70 90 80 %, 60 70 50 60 40 50 %, 30 40 30 20 20 10 10 0 aidnI aknaLirS airagluB aibreS lagutroP 0 eceerG aisyala yna M mreG aeroK niapS elihC anihC htuoS ainauhtiL aissuR lizarB dnalerI , , , , ? . , , -- , , . , , , . 26 World Bank Moscow Office Economics Unit ? , 2000 . 2 , . , 2000 , . , . « » , , , , . , , , . , . . , , . . , , . / . . , , , , , , . , . , , , . , , , , - . , « » , . , : : . 1. (2006).15 15 http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/0,,contentMDK:20849901~pagePK:146736~piPK:146830~ theSitePK:258599,00.html 27 Table 10: Main Macroeconomic Indicators 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 , %, 1/ 5.1 4.7 7.3 7.2 6.4 - - 5.5 - - 7.4 - - - , % . . 4.9 3.7 7.0 8.3 4.0 4.4 1.0 4.1 4.8 10.6 2.9 2.9 5.6 4.1 5.4 . -, % . . . - 1.1 10.3 10.5 5.7 4.1 -0.1 5.7 5.6 15.1 2.8 2.5 6.2 5.1 7.5 , % . . . - 6.8 8.7 6.8 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.8 3.8 3.6 2.4 3.1 3.8 1.7 0.6 , % . 8.7 2.6 12.5 10.9 10.5 4.2 2.3 10.8 10.8 18.8 12.6 10.7 12.6 15.0 19.1 - , % 1/ 3.0 1.4 1.7 4.3 7.5 13.9 11.4 10.9 9.0 9.5 8.7 8.7 8.8 8.7 9.2 , % 1/ - - 1.3 4.5 7.7 - - 12.5 - - 11.0 - - - M2, % 44.6 34.1 44.8 42.5 35.6 -3.4 1.3 4.2 3.1 5.2 6.0 2.0 3.0 4.1 0.2 (), % 18.6 15.1 12.0 11.7 10.9 2.4 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 , % 16.5 15.7 14.0 19.5 19.6 - - 23.3 - - 20.1 - - - , % . .8.3 17.7 12.5 28.8 13.4 0.4 3.2 2.1 0.6 1.8 0.8 1.7 2.2 1.4 -2.8 , 29.2 31.4 30.7 28.8 28.3 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.9 , 1998 = 100 () 120.3 123.6 127.3 137.3 149.2 152.3 154.6 156.5 156.5 156.4 158.3 158.7 , % . 20.3 2.8 3.0 7.9 8.7 0.2 1.5 1.3 0.0 -0.1 1.3 0.2 . , . . , - - - 18.7 42.9 51.6 55.4 60.4 66.0 71.5 76.3 67.2 64.7 70.7 76.6 , . . , 36.6 47.8 76.9 124.5 182.2 188.5 195.9 205.9 226.4 247.3 250.6 265.7 259.9 266.2 272.5 , . . 48.1 46.3 59.9 86.9 118.3 12.3 11.7 11.8 13.0 14.6 11.1 12.0 13.7 11.3 , % 51.2 52.4 54.2 54.7 61.1 - - 67.6 - - 65.4 - - 65.2 - , . . 33.9 29.1 35.4 58.6 84.2 - - 28.0 - - 28.8 - - 23.1 - , . . 101.9 107.3 135.9 183.2 243.6 20.9 22.1 24.5 24.1 27.2 25.4 25.8 28.1 25.9 , . . 53.8 61.0 76.1 96.3 125.3 8.6 10.4 12.7 11.1 12.6 14.3 13.7 14.4 14.5 , . 1/ 3980 4002 6781 9420 13072 - - 3845 - - 6445 - - 10268 - , . / 20.9 21.0 23.9 34.1 45.2 51.5 52.8 52.5 57.4 60.3 59.4 59.6 63.7 58.9 , %4/ 17.9 15.8 13.1 11.5 10.7 10.2 10.7 10.2 10.8 11.0 10.5 10.1 10.3 , 25.0 21.0 16.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.5 11.0 , ( -1.1 3.9 -2.2 -10.1 -8.4 -2.8 -4.1 -4.2 -1.8 -0.8 -1.9 -3.4 -3.4 ) , . . 486.0 479.0 897.8 1210.2 1603.6 20.4 106.2 189.9 176.5 183.3 355.3 273.4 233.8 , % 5.4 4.4 6.8 7.1 7.4 - - 5.5 - - 11.3 - - - () 260.1 359.1 567.3 614.1 1125.6 1316.0 1453.4 1435.0 1657.3 1461.2 1494.6 1551.1 1626.7 1550.0 1613.6 1/ 38.4 43.4 41.3 35.8 33.5 38.6 38.5 40.7 39.9 37.5 35.6 35.7 34.3 1/ - 10.8 14.5 15.2 13.8 - - 13.2 - - 12.7 - - 14.9 - ( / ), % /1 25.6 17.4 20.7 25.5 25.3 49.7 32.8 28.5 27.6 27.0 27.0 26.4 26.2 , , 1999 = 100 121.7 135.3 155.4 170.8 185.8 151.0 184.6 200.4 211.1 209.2 223.2 214.0 219.4 217.8 218.1 . 112.4 138.6 179.4 237.2 301.6 320.6 329.1 357.1 360.6 380.2 410.1 417.5 407.7 413.4 413.9 , % 1/ 27.3 24.2 20.6 17.8 15.8 - - - - - - - (%, ) 9.0 8.1 8.6 8.2 7.6 7.9 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.2 7.1 6.7 1/ 2/ , 3/ M2 4/ 1 : , , EEG, ,