AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES DEPARTMENT 76045 N O T E S ISSUE 2 MARCH 2013 Potential Impact of Climate Change on Resilience and Livelihoods in Mixed Crop-Livestock Systems BY ADEMOLA BRAIMOH, NANCY MORGAN, AND FRANÇOIS LE GALL Mixed crop-livestock systems cover over one million climate-induced changes using high resolution geospatial square kilometers of farmland and support the liveli- methods. The second exercise entailed household-level hoods of millions of poor people in arid and semi-arid and key informant surveys to determine the evolution of areas of Africa. The scant and highly variable rainfall that is livelihood patterns in 12 districts in Kenya, Tanzania, and characteristic of these areas leads to frequent crop failures, Uganda (Table 1). The third applied the Decision Support typically one out of every six growing seasons. Many local System for Agrotechnology Transfer cropping systems households face a wide array of problems including pov- model to assess the potential impact of climate change on erty, food insecurity, and inadequate diets – all of which food security and poverty levels. stand to be seriously exacerbated by the effects of climate change. A variety of projected climatological scenarios EVOLUTION OF MIXED-CROP LIVESTOCK forecast that these areas will become drier, making crop FARMING SYSTEMS AND ADAPTATION production even riskier than it is at present. This note de- STRATEGIES scribes the possible climate-induced livelihood transitions The evolution of farming systems in East Africa is condi- in mixed crop-livestock systems using East Africa as a case tioned by a variety of powerful social and cultural pro- study. The findings reported are based on three exer- cesses. Prominent among these has been an expansion in cises. The first was the mapping of potential hotspots of the area in which crops are cultivated, and in the number Photo: World Bank TABLE 1. SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF THE STUDIED DISTRICTS Population density Annual Length of growing District Country (persons km-2) rainfall (mm) period (days) Cropland (%) Pasture (%) Kwale Kenya 19 787 179 15 48 Baringo Kenya 15 658 134 10 85 Samburu Kenya 1 523 85 18 57 Machakos Kenya 498 1205 159 13 49 Kajiado Kenya 21 655 146 24 0 West Pokot Kenya 17 717 139 34 65 North Pokot Kenya 22 935 196 74 26 Kishapu Tanzania 24 875 168 19 35 Singida Tanzania 28 827 139 2 98 Mbarara Uganda 15 898 211 67 0 Nebbi Uganda 55 1058 210 64 36 Masaka Uganda 294 1061 217 88 0 of households engaged in crop production over the last 30 to 40 water and 48 percent over not having enough water for livestock. years. This has included expansion into highly marginal areas with 16 percent expressed concern over not having enough water 700 mm or less annual rainfall. In all but four of the twelve districts with which to cultivate crops. In 10 of the 12 districts, households studied, cropping has been introduced only in the last 50 years. were concerned about not having enough food for the family Maize predominates, but some householders are increasing their (38 percent of the respondents), while in seven of the 12 districts crop and diet diversity, particularly in locations with higher annual household were concerned about not having enough pastures for rainfall, and are willing to try drought-tolerant crops such as millet, the livestock (28 percent of the respondents). sorghum, and cassava. Searching for water is a primary coping strategy, and drilling Food security is positively correlated with rainfall. In seven of the boreholes has emerged as an important means of adaptation. twelve districts, all with annual rainfall higher than 800 mm, house- Households cope with food shortages by buying food or rely- holds were self-sufficient in securing adequate dietary energy from ing on food aid, as well as by reducing consumption. Adaptation food production. The districts with high food insecurity were also strategies against food deficits vary across the rainfall gradient: in those in which a large proportion of households receive food aid the low rainfall districts, households mentioned income diversifica- several times each year. Food insecurity was common in all districts tion, expansion of cropping, diversification of crops, and increasing with an annual rainfall of 800 mm or less, and assumed critical herd sizes. In the higher rainfall districts, households mentioned levels in those districts with less than 700 mm of rainfall. Adapta- increasing the storage of food, planting drought resistant cultivars, tion strategies varied across districts. Some householders in the and intercropping. Households respond to the lack of pastures for low rainfall districts undertook to diversify their income sources livestock by increasing livestock mobility. In some of the districts, through crop production. Others who were already engaged in households mentioned conservation of feeds, use of irrigation, and farming sought to intensify crop-livestock systems with a variety use of drought-tolerant grasses as adaptation strategies. of crops and intercropping. Opportunistic income generation is an important strategy, reflecting the flexibility that many households show in adapting to their environment (Figure 1). PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON Water was ranked as the most important concern by respondents FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY in all 12 districts, both for human consumption and for livestock, Model results indicate that the effects of climate change are and to a lesser extent for crop production. About 48 percent of dependent on crop and on location. Maize, which is the preferred respondents expressed concern over not having enough drinking crop, generally does not do very well under current conditions in 2 Figure 1: Relationship between: A) Number Of Crops Cultivated And Net Household Income; B) Number of Crops Cultivated and Net Cropping Income; and C) Number of Activities Per Farm and Annual Rainfall; and D) Number of Activities Per Farm and Net Income terms of yields. Nor is maize well-suited to the conditions which in their cropping portfolio. Dryland cropping with its associated are likely to emerge as the result of climate change – conditions lower yields and higher production costs, is estimated to have that will markedly increase the probability of crop failure. More negative impacts on farm profits, although diversification involv- positively, projections about the effects of climate change suggest ing drought-tolerant crops may help smooth the inter-annual that in some places opportunities may emerge for households income variability that can arise because of market price variability. to diversify and intensify cropping, and possibly expand into Increased livestock numbers might be a mechanism for enhancing places where cultivation is not currently possible. In other places, food security, if households would treat livestock as an enterprise, particularly in low rainfall areas, households are likely to experience as they do crops. It should be noted that there is some uncertainty increased food insecurity and higher poverty rates in the future. among climate models as to the direction of change in rainfall However, the model indicated considerable variability in income, amounts in East Africa in the coming decades, and so simulated food security and self-sufficiency between households within the production changes into the future should be interpreted with same districts. This implies that some proportion of the house- caution. holds may be successful in adapting to climate change and taking advantage of new opportunities that may present themselves in POLICY IMPLICATIONS the changing landscape. Some policies that can strategically address climate-induced liveli- hood transitions in mixed-crop livestock systems are discussed While the effects of climate changes in East Africa are diverse, there below. may be areas which benefit from climate change and may not need to shift from their current maize-based cultivation systems. Extension support to successfully innovate in cropping, par- Others would need to shift to include more cassava and sorghum ticularly in the locations where cropping is a relatively new activity. 3 Drought-tolerant crops are likely to be an important component Support households in drier locations with safety nets and of future farming systems. Although many households have infrastructural services. These include roads, water, crops and some knowledge about them, few cultivate them. Millet, sor- livestock input services. Together, these will reduce their vulner- ghum and cassava are grown in six, five and three districts only, ability and potentially trigger certain tipping points for achieving respectively, and by relatively few households. food security and proportionately greater self-sufficiency. Crop breeding to improve nutrition security. The diets of Develop and disseminate better short-and medium-term many people in the region that are built around maize are largely weather forecasting. Improved forecasting is required to help protein deficient, and reliance on maize for regional food security households in wetter regions better manage risks and increasing may be increasingly risky in view of its susceptibility to climate cropping diversity or intensification of livestock production. The change impacts. In addition to crop breeding, addressing seed weather forecasting tool should be utilized together with crop distribution systems for drought-tolerant crops: sorghum, millet, and livestock insurance schemes and market development for cassava, and legumes will be important. Knowledge transfer on reaching growing urban and peri-urban populations. how to effectively cultivate these less familiar, non-traditional crops should also include instruction on how to add value to these food crops through cooking, processing, and marketing. Photo: Curt Carnemark This Note was written by Ademola Braimoh, Nancy Morgan, and François Le Gall, and edited by Gunnar Larson. The Note is based on the report of a World Bank–commissioned study, Genesis Reversed: Climate Change Impacts on Agri- culture and Livelihoods in Mixed Crop-Livestock Systems of East Africa by the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) in Nairobi, Kenya. 1818 H Street. NW Washington, DC 20433 www.worldbank.org/rural