Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) AFRICA | Kenya | Poverty and Equity Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Program-for-Results | FY 2016 | Seq No: 2 | ARCHIVED on 13-Jun-2016 | ISR22939 | Implementing Agencies: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Devolution and Planning Program Development Objectives Program Development Objective (from Program-for-Results Appraisal Document) To support the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics to generate better and more accessible data to inform policy-makers and contribute to strengthening its capacity. Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Highly Satisfactory  Highly Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Satisfactory  Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Substantial  Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Overall the Program is making good progress toward achieving the PDO. A total of six DLRs have been achieved and verified, equivalent to a disbursement value of US$ 11 million. An additional two DLRs (valued at US$ 3 million) have been achieved and verification of these results is in progress. Progress towards achieving DLR 7.0 and DLR 7.1 is slower than planned, but measures (including sourcing additional TA) have been taken to achieve these before the end of the calendar year. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P149718 IDA-57170 Effective XDR 35.60 35.60 0.00 7.82 27.78 22% 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 1 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P149718 IDA-57170 Effective 10-Sep-2015 02-Oct-2015 10-Feb-2016 31-Dec-2020 -- Disbursement Linked Indicators (DLI) PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 1: Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Accounts source data gaps (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) DLR 1.1 (“Micro and Small Enterprise (MSE) survey conducted, report produced and available online”): This activity is National Accounts source on track. Fieldwork has been Value data incomplete and partly -- completed. Work on the data outdated cleaning and report writing is now ongoing. The milestone is on track for achievement and verification in September 2016. Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 06-Jun-2016 Comments The 4 DLRs under DLI 1 are: (1.1) Micro and small enterprises (MSE) survey conducted, report produced and available on-line; (1.2) Establishment census conducted, report produced and available on-line; (1.3) Integrated Survey of Services (ISS) conducted, report produced and available on-line; and (1.4) 2018 Survey of Industrial Production (SIP) conducted, report produced and available on-line PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 2: Implement an integrated program of household surveys to fill key poverty, labor and socio-economic data gaps (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) The first two DLRs (2.0 DLR 2.0 was achieved, verified and 2.1) have been Labor force, poverty and other and disbursement against. DLR achieved as planned and Value key socio-economic data 2.1 was achieved and the will be assessed as per outdated verification process has the verification protocol in commenced. January 2016 Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 06-Jun-2016 Comments The 5 DLRs under DLI 2 are: (2.0) Design the 2015/16 Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) instruments, conduct pilot, and start fieldwork by September 2015; (2.1) KIHBS 2015/16 fieldwork partly conducted and progress report produced and available on-line; (2.2) KIHBS 2015/16 poverty report and labor indicators reports produced and available on-line; (2.3) Kenya Continuous Household Survey (KCHS) 2017 fieldwork conducted and quarterly labor indicators report produced and available on- line; and 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 2 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) (2.4) KCHS 2018 fieldwork conducted and County poverty report produced and available on-line. PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 3: Produce better real and external sector economic data (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) The first two DLRs (3.0 Insufficient capacity to meet and 3.1) have been DLR 3.0 and DLR 3.1 were SDDS criteria in all real and achieved as planned and Value achieved, verified and external sector data will be assessed as per disbursement against. categories the verification protocol in January 2016 Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 06-Jun-2016 Comments The 5 DLRs under DLI 3 are: (3.0) Revised National Accounts with base year updated to 2009 produced and published; (3.1) Foreign Investment Survey (FIS) conducted and report produced and available on-line; (3.2) Business register upgraded and updated; (3.3) Rebased Consumer Price Index (CPI) series produced and available on-line; and (3.4) Rebased Producer Price Index (PPI) series produced and available on-line PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 4: Compile the IMF Data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for five macro-economic datasets (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) DLR 4.1 (“DQAF compiled and published for one macroeconomic dataset”): The mission was informed that the DQAF for National Accounts is Compilation of the first being drafted, and that a study DQAF not compiled for any of DQAF is scheduled to trip to the South Africa NSO is Value the seven macro-economic commence in March 2016 planned in July-August to learn datasets with TA by the Bank and from SA’s experience in IMF compilling DQAFs. A final version of the DQAF will be sent for peer review to IMF’s AFRITAC. This milestone is expected to be achieved and verified by Q2 of FY17. Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 06-Jun-2016 Comments The 5 DLRs under DLI 4 are: (4.1) DQAF compiled and published for 1 macro-economic dataset; (4.2) DQAF compiled and published for 2 macro-economic datasets; (4.3) DQAF compiled and published for 3 macro-economic datasets; (4.4) DQAF compiled and published for 4 macro-economic datasets; and (4.5) DQAF compiled and published for 5 macro-economic datasets. 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 3 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 5: Develop an Advance Release Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data coverage (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) DLR 5.0 and DLR 5.1 were achieved, verified and ARC not used and Economic disbursement against. And, Value Surveys not digitized and not -- ahead of schedule, DLR 5.2 has freely available been achieved and verification of this result is in progress. Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 01-Jun-2016 Comments The 6 DLRs under DLI 5 are: (5.0) All past Economic Survey Reports digitized and made freely available on-line; (5.1) An ARC covering up 2 data categories of the Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) developed and published; (5.2) An ARC covering up 4 data categories of the SDDS developed and published; (5.3) An ARC covering up 6 data categories of the SDDS developed and published; (5.4) An ARC covering up 8 data categories of the SDDS developed and published; and (5.5) An ARC covering up 10 data categories of the SDDS developed and published. PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 6: Improve access to official survey microdata (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) DLR 6.0 was achieved, verified and disbursement against. DLR 6.1 (“Revised microdata dissemination policy produced, adopted, and published”): The revised dissemination policy was produced and shared with Microdata files not available stakeholders for comments Value on-line and not freely -- during the implementation obtainable support mission. Following incorporation of stakeholders’ comments, the policy will be submitted to the board for approval after which it will be published on-line. Achievement and verification of this result is anticipated during Q1 of FY17. Date 30-Jun-2014 -- 01-Jun-2016 Comments The 6 DLRs under DLI 6 are: (6.0) Kenya National Data Archive (KeNADA) with microdata from at least 30 surveys launched; (6.1) Revised microdata dissemination policy produced, adopted and published; (6.2) Micro and Small Enterprise (MSE) survey microdata available on-line; (6.3) KIHBS 2015/16 microdata available on-line; (6.4) KCHS 2017 microdata available on-line; and 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 4 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) (6.5) KCHS 2018 microdata available on-line. PHDLIPDOTBL  DLI 7: Implement the Corruption Risk Assessment (CRA) action plan and strengthen financial and records management systems (Text) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) While progress was made towards DLR 7.0, the verification agency (EACC) concluded that by December 2015 the CRA action plan was only between 25- 30 percent implemented. The next CRA action plan implementation assessment will be undertaken by the EACC in Q2 of FY17. The KNBS management team has developed a detailed roadmap and stepped up efforts to work towards full implementation by that time. CRA conducted and endorsed Value action plan prepared by KNBS -- The DLR 7.1 was anticipated to and fully implemented be achieved by April 30, 2016. However, progress was slower than anticipated and additional TA was sourced to operationalize the improved FMIS. The management and administration team received extensive training to commence working with the improved FMIS during Q3 of FY16. The system is currently being phased in and the KNBS management team has indicated that verification of the achievement of DLR 7.1 can be undertaken in Q2 of FY17. Date 30-Dec-2015 -- 06-Jun-2016 Comments The 3 DLRs under DLI 7 are: (7.0) CRA conducted and endorsed action plan prepared by KNBS and implementation completed; (7.1) A FMIS with multi-dimensional chart of accounts and capability to generate key reports designed and operationalized; and (7.2) An ISO 15489 certified RM system established. Results Results Area 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Intermediate Results Area Data gaps filled and capacity strengthened through the implementation of integrated survey programs Quality of key official statistical products and processes improved Dissemination practices strengthened and access to data improved Management systems strengthened Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Inform development strategies, policies and poverty reduction programs of the Government of Kenya (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Outdated poverty statistics and household survey data All three First intermediate (2005/06) being used to intermediate Value target to be achieved -- infrom poverty reduction targets by June 2018 targeting and resource achieved allocations Date 30-Jun-2014 -- -- 30-Jun-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Produce regular poverty monitoring data and statistics (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Progress is on track Progress is on track and and the first the first intermediate intermediate target target (Kenya Integrated (Kenya Integrated Household Budget Household Budget Survey KIHBS 2015/16 Survey KIHBS 2015/16 partly conducted and partly conducted and progress report Poverty statistics are progress report produced and available All five outdated (2005/06) and produced and available online) has been intermediate Value there is insufficient online) has been achieved. targets capacity to monitor poverty achieved. achieved at least once every 3 years The progress report is The progress report is available for download available for download from the KNBS website from the KNBS website http://www.knbs.or.ke http://www.knbs.or.ke Date 30-Jun-2014 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Produce better real and external sector economic data (Text, Custom) 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 6 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Progress is on track Progress is on track and and the first the first intermediate intermediate target target (Foreign (Foreign Investment Investment Survey (FIS) Survey (FIS) conducted and report conducted and report Insufficient capacity to produced and available All five produced and available meet SDDS criteria in all on-line) has been intermediate Value on-line) has been real and external sector achieved. targets achieved. data categories achieved The 2015 FIS report is The 2015 FIS report is available for download available for download from the KNBS website from the KNBS website http://www.knbs.or.ke http://www.knbs.or.ke Date 30-Jun-2014 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Improve access to official survey microdata (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Progress is on track to Progress is on track to achieve the first achieve the first intermediate target intermediate target All five Microdata files not (Revised microdata (Revised microdata intermediate Value available on-line and not dissemination policy dissemination policy targets freely obtainable produced, adopted and produced, adopted and achieved published) before June published) before June 2016 30, 2016 Date 30-Jun-2014 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  Implement an integrated program of economic surveys to fill National Accounts source data gaps (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Progress towards the Progress towards the first intermediate target first intermediate target (Micro and small (Micro and small enterprises (MSE) enterprises (MSE) All four National Accounts source survey conducted, survey conducted, report intermediate Value data incomplete and partly report produced and produced and available targets outdated available on-line) is on on-line) has been made. achieved track. The MSE fieldwork is The MSE survey ongoing and will be 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 7 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) instruments have been completed by mid-June designed and the 2016; the report will be fieldwork is scheduled produced and available to take place in during Q2 of FY17. February 2016. Date 30-Jun-2015 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 28-Jun-2019 PHINDIRITBL  Improve Overall Statistical Capacity Score (SCI) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 54.00 54.00 54.00 69.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 09-Dec-2015 29-Apr-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Compile the IMF data Quality Assessment Framework (DQAF) for five macro-economic datasets (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Compilation of the first DQAF commenced in Compilation of the first March 2016 with TA by DQAF compiled DQAF not compiled for any DQAF is scheduled to the Bank and IMF. and published Value of the seven macro- commence in March KNBS will undertake a for 5 macro- economic datasets 2016 with TA by the TA mission to Statistics economic Bank and IMF SA to finalize the DQAF datasets during July-August 2016. Date 30-Jun-2015 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Proportion of Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) requirements met or partially met (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 72.00 72.00 72.00 100.00 Date 30-Jun-2015 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Develop an Advance Release Calendar (ARC) and scale-up data coverage (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Progress is ahead of Progress is ahead of Develop and schedule. The ARC schedule. The ARC was publish an ARC was developed (and is developed (and is covering 10 Value ARC not used available on-line) and available on-line) and data categories already covers 4 data already covers 4 data of the Special categories of the categories of the SDDS. Data 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 8 of 9 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Kenya Statistics Program for Results (P149718) SDDS. The The intermediate target Dissemination intermediate target set set for June 2017 has Standard for June 2017 has already been achieved. (SDDS) already been achieved. Date 30-Jun-2015 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Implement the Corruption Risk Assessment (CRA) action plan and strengthen financial and record management systems (Text, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target The CRA was conducted and the endorsed action plan has been assessed by the EACC for The CRA was compliance in November conducted and the 2015. The report of that endorsed action plan assessment suggests has been assessed by the CRA is not yet fully the EACC for implemented. The compliance in EACC will conduct their November 2015. The next assessment before report of that the end of the calendar assessment will be year. made available by the CRA conducted and EACC in January 2016. Both of the 2 Work on the first endorsed action plan intermediate Value intermediate target prepared by KNBS and Work on the first targets (Design and fully implemented intermediate target achieved operationalize a FMIS (Design and with multi-dimensional operationalize a FMIS chart of accounts and with multi-dimensional capability to generate chart of accounts and key reports) is capability to generate underway. Progress was key reports) is slower than anticipated underway. Progress and measures ( will be reviewed during additional TA was the upcoming sourced) were taken to supervision mission. speed up implementation. This is expected to be achieved before the end of the calendar year. Date 31-Dec-2015 09-Dec-2015 06-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2017 Overall Comments 6/13/2016 Public Disclosure Copy Page 9 of 9