The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) REPORT NO.: RES38106 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF BUILDING STATISTICAL CAPACITIES IN THE MINISTRY OF EDUCATION APPROVED ON FEBRUARY 23, 2018 TO MINISTRY OF EDUCATION OF GUATEMALA EDUCATION LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Regional Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Country Director: Yaye Seynabou Sakho Global Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi Practice Manager/Manager: Emanuela Di Gropello Task Team Leader: Enrique O. Alasino Massetti The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS DIPLAN Department of Education Planning (Dirección de Planificación Educativa) MINEDUC Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) MINFIN Ministry of Finance (MINFIN) PDO Project Development Objective SIRE Education Registry System The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P165120 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 23-Feb-2018 31-Aug-2019 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Education of Guatemala Dirección de Planificacion Educativa (DIPLAN) Financing (in USD Million) FIN_SUMM_PUB_TBL SUMMARY Total Project Cost 0 Total Financing 0 Financing Gap 0 DETAILS -NewFin3 Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of MINEDUC to collect, manage, analyze and use high-quality statistical information to design, implement and evaluate evidence-based interventions to address key sector challenges. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) Summary Status of Financing Net TF Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-A6830 23-Feb-2018 13-Jul-2018 13-Jul-2018 31-Aug-2019 .35 .18 .18 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. Introduction This Restructuring Paper (RP) seeks management approval of a Level 2 Restructuring for the Building Statistical Capacity in the Ministry of Education grant (P165120). The proposed restructuring would entail: (i) Changes in component and cost; (ii) Changes in implementation schedule and results framework; and (iii) The extension of the closing date of the project of seven months from August 31st, 2019 to March 31st , 2020. B. Background The project was approved by management on February 23rd, 2018 and became effective on July 13th, 2018. The objective of the Project is to strengthen the capacity of the Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) to collect, manage, analyze and use high-quality statistical information to design, implement and evaluate evidence-based interventions to address key sector challenges. The Project has three components, as described in the Project Appraisal Document: a. Component 1. Enhancing the Education Registry System (SIRE) (USD 186,500) b. Component 2. Boosting SIRE to predict students at risk of dropping out (USD 102,500) c. Component 3. Providing support for project management (USD 61,000) C. Project Status Project implementation experienced delays in components 1, 2 and 3 due to (i) weak institutional arrangements and several changes in MINEDUC key personnel; (ii) delays hiring consultants for the project; and (iii) fiduciary issues. However, these challenges were addressed or mitigated, and implementation gained momentum with a disbursement rate increasing from 17% to 50% from January to July 2019 and significant progress towards project objectives have been achieved over the past three months, as summarized below. The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) a. Component 1: Enhancing the Education Registry System (SIRE; USD 186,500) The diagnostic of current data management and utilization practices has been completed. In August 2019, the action plan to strengthen the statistical management in MINEDUC was finalized and it includes a section on how to improve information management for indigenous populations and inclusive education (students with disabilities). With this deliverable, two of the four PDOs were achieved. Training for MINEDUC staff on how to collect, manage, analyze and use high-quality statistical information will be carried out based on the strengthening and training plan that was finalized. In order to have a high-quality training program the team is exploring the possibility of implementing an e-learning course with IIPE-UNESCO. Since this would be a more in-depth course than was originally anticipated, the cost per person is also higher and MINEDUC would rather have this training for less personnel. For this reason, the end target of Intermediate Result #3 would decrease from 80 to 40 people. The end target of IRI #4 would remain the same (30 people). b. Component 2. Boosting SIRE to predict students at risk of dropping out (USD 102,500) The dropout prevention workshops have been carried out and a dropout prevention guide was printed and given to school directors. A consultant is working on developing an attendance module in SIRE, which will assist in identifying students at risk of dropping out. This activity will be finalized by December 31st, 2019. These activities will allow achieving the final two PDO indicators. The implementation plan indicates that the rest of the indicators will be achieved by December 31st, 2019. c. Component 3. Providing support for project management (USD 61,000) This component includes hiring the consultant in charge of project management within MINEDUC, travel costs for training and the project audit. The project manager has been working since November of 2018 and no training activities were necessary for the duties he needed to carry out, so savings from this activity were reallocated to other components. The audit will take place once the project is finalized. D. Rationale for Restructuring The dialogue on the importance of data collection and statistical capacity within the ministry supported through this Trust Fund is starting to produce results. An extension of seven months of the grant to compensate for the initial delays would allow for the completion of the implementation of on-going activities and fully achieve the Project’s objectives. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES A. Extension of the Closing Date and implementation schedule An extension of the grant for an additional seven months, until, March 31st, 2020 is proposed. This will allow MINEDUC to complete the following activities: the “Good Practices in Statistical Information Management Manual”; the development of attendance module and its incorporation into SIRE and the delivery of training for MINEDUC’s staff. MINFIN originally requested an extension of four months (letter from the Minister of Finance), but during the most recent mission (August 8th, 2019), the implementing agency of the Ministry of Education asked if additional time could be added. Considering previous setbacks, the team considers adding an extra three months (seven in total) would allow “buffer” time to finalize all activities. With this extension, total duration of the grant will be 20 months from effectiveness date. The implementation schedule of the Project would also be updated accordingly. The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) B. Project Costs Considering savings and update to activities, the budget allocation across components will be modified as presented below. Component Name Current Cost Proposed Change (US$) cost (US$) Component 1. Enhancing the 186,500 189,150 Increased by US$2,650 and reallocated Education Registry System (SIRE) savings from this component. It includes a new activity- hiring a consultant to update the Education Indicators System (SNIE). The savings also allowed more STATA licenses to be acquired. Component 2. Boosting SIRE to predict 102,500 113,650 Increased by US$11,150. Includes a new students at risk of dropping out activity- printing the school dropout prevention guide. Component 3. Providing support for 61,000 47,200 Decreased by US$13,800 due to savings. project management 350,000 C. Adjustments in the Results Framework The Results Framework is adjusted based on implementation schedule agreed with the Ministry. An additional adjustment has been made to Intermediate Result #3 by lowering the target number of MINEDUC staff to be trained on how to collect, manage, analyze and use high-quality statistical information. This focalization will allow to provide a more in-depth training to staff whose role and functions are more aligned with managing databases and producing the required statistics. For this reason, the end target of IRI 3 would decrease from 80 to 40 people. III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) Implementing Agency ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Additional Financing Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Change in Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_RESULTS_TABLE RESULTS FRAMEWORK Project Development Objective Indicators PDO_IND_TABLE An action plan to strengthen the statistical management in MINEDUC is prepared based on the diagnostic carried out. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No Yes Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 08-Aug-2019 15-Aug-2019 The plan includes a section on how to improve information management for indigenous populations. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Supplement The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No Yes Yes Revised EWS is strengthened with new predictors and evidence-based interventions incorporated into the design. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 New modules are collected and analyzed; including statistics disaggregated by gender and ethnicity. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 Intermediate Indicators IO_IND_TABLE MINEDUC's software for statistical management is updated and fully functional. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 New modules for data collection are developed and incorporated into SIRE, showing disaggregated data by gender and ethnicity. Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 Number of MINEDUC's staff trained under the project on how to collect, manage, analyze and/or use high-quality statistical information. The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 40.00 Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 Number of MINEDUC staff trained under the Project on how to collect, manage, analyze and/or use data related to indigenous peoples’ challenges and concerns. Unit of Measure: Number Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value 0.00 0.00 30.00 Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 At least two evidence-based interventions to support the EWS designed Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 MINEDUC formally adopts a "Good Practices in Statistical Information Management Manual" Unit of Measure: Yes/No Indicator Type: Custom Baseline Actual (Current) End Target Action Value No No Yes Revised Date 15-Feb-2018 13-Jun-2018 31-Dec-2019 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_COMPONENTS_TABLE COMPONENTS Current Current Proposed Proposed Cost Action Component Name Component Name Cost (US$M) (US$M) Enhancing the Education Registry Enhancing the Education 0.19 No Change 0.19 System (SIRE) Registry System (SIRE) The World Bank Building Statistical Capacities in the Ministry of Education (P165120) Boosting SIRE to Predict Boosting SIRE to Predict Students 0.10 Revised Students at Risk of Dropping 0.11 at Risk of Dropping Out Out Providing Support for Project Providing Support for Project 0.06 Revised 0.05 Management Management TOTAL 0.35 0.35 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline TF Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications TF-A6830 Effective 31-Aug-2019 31-Mar-2020 31-Jul-2020