91490 September/2014 EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA TRENDS POVERTY & POVERTY HEADCOUNT RATIO, 2006-2010 SHARED PROSPERITY Source: ECATSD using ECAPOV. SURVEY DATA AT A GLANCE 20 SERBIA GDP per capita, PPP (current international $)1 11,801 (2012) 15 10 US$ 5.00 GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$)1 5,280 (2012) Rural population (% of total population)1 43 (2012) 5 National strategy for statistical development 2011-2015 US$ 2.50 P OVER TY Population living below national line (%)1 24.60 (2012) 0 Population living below US$ 1.25 (%)2 0.05 (2010) 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Population living below US$ 2.5 (%)2 1.77 (2010) INEQUALITY INDICES, 2006-2010 Population living below US$ 5.00 (%)2 15.12 (2010) Population living above US$ 10.00 (%)2 38.26 (2010) Source: ECATSD using ECAPOV. GINI THEIL Population living in multidimensional poverty (%)3 0.80 (2005/ 0.35 2006) 0.30 I NEQUAL I TY 0.25 Gini index2 0.30 (2010) 0.20 Theil index2 0.15 (2010) 0.15 SH AR ED P R OSP ER I TY Welfare definition Consumption 0.10 Period of analysis 2007-2010 0.05 Income/consumption growth of bottom 40 2 -1.76% 0.00 Income/consumption growth total population 2 -1.33% 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Income/consumption growth of top 60 2 -1.21% GDP growth 1 0.80% INCOME/CONSUMPTION GROWTH PER CAPITA BY QUINTILE, 2007-2010 Growth of private consumption 1 0.10% Source: ECATSD using ECAPOV. GROWTH SHARE (FINAL) 1 2 3 Sources: WDI. ECATSD using ECAPOV. UNDP. 0.0% 50% -0.5% 40% -1.0% 30% Growth PERFORMANCE Share Global ECA Value Global Conditional ECA Conditional Years -1.5% 20% Poverty change 2005- -0.51% 47 71 56 54 -2.0% 10% (US$ 2.50)*1 2010 Income/ -2.5% 0% 2007- consumption growth -1.76% 5 28 7 51 1 (poorest) 2 3 4 5 (richest) 2010 of the bottom 40%**1 UNDP Human CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, 2000-2010 0.769 64/186 - 15/29 - 2012 Source: Discontinued. Note: 2005 =100. Development Index 2 GENERAL FOOD *Annualized. Benchmarking numbers present percent ile perf ormance among indicat ed dist ribut ion group. 200 “Condit ional” ref ers t o perf ormance when cont rolling f or povert y in t he init ial period, GDP per capit a, f ragilit y index, landlocked count ry, count ry growt h rat e, global growt h rat e, and f requency of povert y dat a. **Annualized. Benchmarking numbers present percent ile perf ormance among indicat ed dist ribut ion group. 150 “Condit ional” ref ers t o percent ile perf ormance when cont rolling f or t ype of welf are measure, GNI per capit a 2012,Gini in f irst period, povert y head count in f irst period, and count ry growt h rat e. Sources: 1 ECATSD using ECAPOV. Azevedo and Nguyen (2014). 2 UNDP (2013). 100 LIVING BELOW US$ 2.50 50 DEMOGRAPHICS LIVING BETWEEN US$ 2.50- 5.00 LIVING ABOVE US$ 5.00 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 POPULATION BY AGE AND POVERTY STATUS, 2010 (MILLIONS) Source: ECATSD using ECAPOV. 65-older CONTRIBUTORS 55-64 GROWTH DISTRIBUTION 45-54 35-44 % CONTRIBUTION TO POVERTY REDUCTION, (US$ 2.50), 2007-2010 25-34 Source: ECATSD using ECAPOV. 15-24 0-14 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0.50 1.00 Women Men 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 NATIONAL DATA National poverty estimates in Serbia are produced by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (Serbia SSO), using the Euro- Stat guidelines. Thus, the estimation of poverty is based on a relative poverty line, established at 60% of the equivalized median income after social transfers. Starting in 2013, these estimates are based on the Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (SILC) survey, a nationally representative household survey. In the income year 2012, the most recent year of published figures, 24.6% of the population was at risk of poverty.* The most recent national strategy for statistical development in Serbia is the Program of Official Statistics in the Period 2011-2015, an official document approved by the National Assembly oriented to improve the quality of the statistics produced. The most recent survey available for Serbia in the World Bank’s regional internal microdata catalog, the ECA Data Portal, is the 2010 Household Budget Survey (HBS), previously used to estimate poverty statistics. *Source: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. SOURCES OF INCOME * HH EXPENDITURES* ROMA POPULATION (% of monthly total, avg.) R o m a No n -R o m a (% of monthly total, avg.) R o m a No n -R o m a Earnings related to employment 38% 49% Alcohol and cigarettes 12% 7% Unemployment benefits 3% 1% Transportation 2% 4% KEY POVERTY AND INEQUALITY INDICATORS R o m a No n -R o m a Pensions 11% 37% Socializing event 0% 2% Absolute poverty rate PPP$ 4.30 (income) 30% 8% Social assistance 20% 4% Durable goods 0% 0% Absolute poverty rate PPP$ 4.30 26% 4% Child allowance 15% 2% Education 2% 4% Absolute poverty rate PPP$ 2.15 (income) 10% 1% Income from other labor 10% 4% Food, everyday household 57% 52% Absolute poverty rate PPP$ 2.15 5% 0% Remittances (money transfers) 2% 1% Clothes (incl. shoes) 3% 4% Gini coefficient 0.373 0.33 Other 1% 1% Housing (rent and public 9% 13% Ratio of richest 20% v. poorest 20% 7.652 6.14 Medicines and medical services 6% 4% EU material deprivation index: 96% 62% EU severe material deprivation index: 92% 48% Source: UNDP/WB/EC Roma survey for Serbia (2011). *Note: Non-Roma data refers to Non-Roma living in the same neighborhoods or vicinity. KEY INDICATORS To t al US$ 2 . 5 0 Poor No n -P o o r US$ 5 . 0 0 Poor No n -P o o r R elat iv e Gr o u p Bo t t o m 4 0 % To p 6 0 % Year D em o gr ap h ic s Share of total population (%) 100% 2% 98% 15% 85% 40% 60% 2010 % of group living in rural areas 44% 64% 43% 63% 41% 57% 35% 2010 % of group living in urban areas 56% 36% 57% 37% 59% 43% 65% 2010 % of households with 4+ members 34% 93% 33% 63% 30% 50% 26% 2010 Dependency Ratio: Children (0-14)/all HH members 0.19 0.81 0.18 0.35 0.17 0.27 0.15 2010 Dependency Ratio: Elderly 65+/all HH members 0.34 0.10 0.34 0.21 0.36 0.30 0.37 2010 Share of households with Female Head (%) 30% 14% 30% 20% 31% 23% 33% 2010 Average HH size 2.94 6.08 2.91 4.29 2.78 3.67 2.60 2010 Ed u c at io n Proportion of group with None/