Policy, Research, and External Affairs WORKINQ PAPERS P Macroeoonomic Adjustment and Growth Country Economics Department The World Bank August 1990 WPS 486 A RMSM-X Model for Turkey Luc Everaert Fernando Garcia-Pinto and Jaume Ventura The theoretical design of a RMSM-X model, its interaction with a debt module, and the construction of a consistent historical data set is applied to Turkey. ,k, The Policy. Research, and Extenal Affairs Complex distributes PRE Working Papers todisserninaLethefindings of work in progress and to enoourage the exchange of ideas among Bank staff and all others interested in development issues These papers carry the names ol the authors, reflect only their views, and should be used and cited accordingly. The findings, interprtations, and conclusions are the authors' own. T'hey should not be attributed to the World Bank, its Board of Directors, its management, or any of its member countries. Pollcy, Research, and Erlernal Affairs MUacroeconomic Adjustment and Growth WPS 486 Thispaper- ajointproduct of the Macroeconomic Adjustmcnt and Growth Division, Country Economics Departmcnt and the Country Operations Division, Country Departmcnt 1, Europe, Middle East, and North Africa Regional Office - is part of a larger effort in PRE to assist in the design and analysis of macroeconomic policies. Copies of this paper are available free from the World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433. Pleasc contact Sanjev Aggarwal, room, N I1-019, extension 39176(59 pages plus 105 pages of appendices). To improve the Bank's macroeconomic model- targets on economic variables are given and ing capabilities, the Country Economics Depart- policy variables are solved for (the normative ment is developing a continuum of macro closure). Under both closures, a second choice, models referred to as RMSM-X and RMSM-XX. depending on whether an external credit con- These models share a common accounting straint or target is binding or not, is imple- framework that ensures economic consistency mented. among economic sectors. The interaction of the projection model and a RMSM-X is the simplest model, with an debt module is explained in detail. The debt elementary economic structure. The RMSM-XX module, which in the future should become more richly specifies the behavioral links among automatically linked to the DRS, allows the user economic variables. to experiment with different forms of debt restructuring in a simple manner. The debt Everaert, Garcia-Pinto, and Ventura show in module also allows to calculate the supply detail how to specify the budget constraints and schedule for foreign credit and to project in market clearing conditions in a RMSM-X model detail (by creditor) debt stocks, capital flows, for Turkey. They include six sectors: the and interest payments. Government, the State Economic Enterprises, the Central Bank, the domestic banking system, the Finally, since the model is based on the nonfinancial private sector, and the foreign concept of a consistent flow of funds among all sector. The different markets consist of a the specified sectors, it is necessary to build a domestically produced and exportable good, an consistent historical data set for at least the base importablc, a money market, a domestic credit year. Appendix I explains how such a set of market, a quasi-market for Central Bank Credit, consistent macroeconomic data was constructed. and a foreign asset market. This model can be used to project the behavior of these sectors in a The RMSM-X model presented in this paper simple manner, linked through the various will be extended to include more estimated markets. behavioral relations (RMSM-XX) for future operational work on Turkey. Applications of the They explain four possible closurcs of the RMSM-X model have also been developed for model. One choice depends on whether policy Colombia, Zimbabwe, Chile, and the Philip- variables are exogenous (the positive closure) or pines. KThe PRE Working Paper Series disseminates thc findings of work under way in the Bank's Policy, Research, and External Affairs Complex. An objective of the scries is to get these findings out quickly, evcn if presentations are lcss than fully polished. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in these papers do not necessarily represent official Bank policy. Produced by thc PRE Dissemination Centcr TABLE OF CONTENTS I. AN OVERVIEW OF THE SYSTEM II. THE RNSM-X MODEL The Consistency Framework The Behavioral Structure Closing the Model III. THE DEBT MODULE Historical Data and Assumptions Existing Debt and Debt-Restructuring New Debt Total Debt IV. CONCLUDING REMARKS BIBLIOGRAPHY APPENDIX 1: Creating a Consistent Data Base APPENDIX 2: Historical Data aud Output of the Model We are grateful to Ismail Arslan, Cavit Dagdas, Shideh Hadian, Mehmet Polat, Paulo Vieira da Cunha and Steve Webb for their contributions and to Yavuz Arinsoy, Vittorio Corbo, Nihal Ergun, John Holsen and Luis Serven for their useful comments. The predominance of adjustment problems in LDCs since the early 1980. has prompted the need for extensive use of adjustment lending by the World Bank. In order to assist the design and analysis of macroeconomic policies, CECMG has initiated a major effort to enhance the macroeconomic modelling capabilities of the Bank. A continuum of macro models is being developed which are referred to as RMSM-X and RMSM-XX. These models share a common accounting framework that ensures economic consistency among the sectors of the economy. The level of sophistication of the behavioral structure is what distinguishes the different classes of models. The RMSM-X stands as the simplest model, with an elementary economic structure. The RMSM-XX is a step forward in the sense that it includes a richer specification of the links among economic variables. The present pape:-r, which is the result of a joint effort by staff of EMlCO and CECMG, presents the Turkey application of the RMSM-X model. This is only the first stage of a larger project involving the construction of a RMSM-XX model for Turkey. Given the macroeconomic management problems facing Turkey at present and the Bank's heavy involvement in all sectors of its economy, the development of these analytical tools is quite timely. They will be used extensively in EMlCO's future economic work. The RMSM-X model presented here builds on Holsen (1989a, 1989b) and Serven and Ventura (1989b). Other applications of this model for Colombia, Zimbabwe, Chile and Philippines are: Easterly et al. (1990); Kahdr et al.(1989); Serven (1990); and Riveros et 1 al. (1989), respectively. The paper is organized as follows. First, we rresent an overview of the system defined by the RMSM-X model, the Debt module (DM) and the data base. Second, we provide a detailed explanation of the theoretical model. We carefully specify its underlying economic structure in terms of both budget constraints for the different economic agents and market specification. We also discuss the implementation of alternative closure rules. Third, we present the Debt Module. As explained below, the DM allows us to calculate the supply schedule for foreign credit and to project in detail debt stocks, capital flows and interest payments by creditor. Since the RMSM-X model is based upon the concept of a consistent flow-of-funds, a prerequisite for the empirical application of the model is the construction of a consistent historical data set at least for the base year. Appendix 1 explains how we constructed such a set of consistent macroeconomic data. Appendix 2 presents a complete set of historical data as well as the output of the model, including the debt module. 2 I. AN OVERVIEW OF THE SYSTEM The Turkey Model is an integrated system that includes four components: Historical Data, the RMSM-X macroeconomic model, the Debt Module and Standard Tables. All these components have been organized in several, linked JAVELIN-models. Figure 1 gives a schematic view of their organization. Technically, the transfer of data among the different JAVELIN models is done with the special feature called the "Import Data Building Block." This reduces the effort of transferring the data between models to a few keystrokes. FIGURE 1: DATA FLOW CHART HISTORICAL| | DATA 3 In t.s HISTORICAL DATA model we copy each of the original data tables obtained from Turkish sources in a separate worksheet. We design formulas to map the original data in the squired flow of funds format. In this way future updates, revisions, or additional historical data collection are rendered automatic. It is sufficient to add or change the data in the original worksheet and the model will automatically (re-) calculate a consistent flow of funds. Separating the data collection and transformation from the actual projection model not only has the advantage of saving space and increasing speed but it avoids the potential confusion that might arise from the difference between the historical closure of the model (where the private sector is the residual, and the simulation closure (solving for selected endogenous variables). Appendix I explains in detail the construction of the historical flow of funds and the mapping of actual data into it. The RMSM-X projection model only requires historical data for a few periods in order to provide initial values for the simulations. In most cases, the base year data are sufficient since the economic relations between two variables seldom exceed a one year lag. Sometimes if parameters are calibrated on historical data it may be useful to add a few more historical periods in order to check the stability of these parameters. A detailed description of the RMSM-X model is provided in the next section of the paper. External debt and creditworthiness are key variables for the country as well as for the Bank's work. Therefore, we decided to 4 introduca separately a DEBT MODULE that details the interaction between the country and the foreign credit market. The particular details of this model are discussed in section TII. The basic input into the DEBT model is the existing pipeline debt by creditor as reported in the Bank's Debt Report System (DRS) and the terms and conditions of new debt (maturity and grace periods, interest rate and time profile of gross disbursements). At this stage the transfer of data between the DRS and JAVELIN is not yet automatic but this problem will be resolved in the near future. The nature of the transfer of data between the DEBT model and the RMSM-X model depends on the circumstances facing the country. If the country faces a foreign borrowing constraint the total available credit is sent from the DEBT model to RMSM-X as well as the interest rate. No data return from RMSM-X to the ,EBT model. If the country's foreign horrowing is not constrained, the DEBT model provides the interest rate to the RMSM-X. The RMSX-X model returns total demand for credit which is then matched by the DEBT model's pipeline and a gap. The gap is distributed across foreign creditors in the DEBT model, based on a set of assumptions. Finaily, we design standard output required for various purposes in a STANDARI) TABLES model. This includes the standard attachment to CSPs, CEMs and other Bank documents. The STANDARD TABLES model imports the data from the three other models. Part of the historical data come from the HISTORICAL DATA model and the DEBT model. Projections come from the RMSM-X model and the DEBT MODULE. 5 II. THE RMSM-X MODEL In this section we describe the RMSM-X model for Turkey. We start by presenting the cortnistency framework. Then, we append a simple behavioral structure to produce projections. Finally, we discuss alternative closure rules. 11.1. The Consistency Framework The RMSM-X model assures consistency in the projections by requiring that the budget constraints for the six eco.oamic sectors are satisfied. Each budget constraint consists of two statements of the type: CURRENT INCOME - CURRENT EXPENDITURE = NET SAVINGS NET SAVINGS = NET ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH The first statement is the current account of the sector, while the second is the capital account. These two equations can be reduced to a single expression: CURRENT INCOME - CURRENT EXPENDITURE = NET ACCUMULATION OF WEALTH In the rest of this su>Fsectionj we present the budget constraints for each of the economic agents or sectors. We omit the time subscript for current end-of-period stocks and for flows occurring during the current period. All budget constraints are defined in nominal terms. The symbols used are exp'Lained in Table 1. 6 Non-Financial Public Sector The economic importance of the non-financial SEEs in Turkey leads us to distinguis" them from other components of the non- financial public sector. Hence, we proceeded to decompose the non- financial public sector in two: budget (b) and non-financial SEEs (0). The former includes the central government, local governments, social security, extra-budgetary funds and revolving funds. As it will be shown shortly, the financial public sector, composed of the central bank and the financial-SEEs, has been incorporated into the financial sector. The current accounts of the budget and non-iinancial SEEs can be written as follows: (2.1) OFIb + P&Lc + TI + TDo + TDp + ET *fb SUB Tbo Tbp - iRCRb 1 - ic*Bb1l - Eei* F*b-1l PC Cb b (2.2) FIo + Tbo - TDo - iR*CRo_l- ic 'Bo-l Eoi**F So Equation ;2.1) defines budgetary savings as the sum of factor income, distributed central bank profits, tax revenues, and transfers from abroad, minus transfers to domestic sectors, interest payments on domestic and net foreign-currency denominated debt and consumption of the budget. Note that, although the budget owns some financial institutions other than the central bank, it does not receive a share of the profits and losses from the banking system. These are all distributed to the private sector. 7 TABLE 1s DEEINITIONS OF VARIABLES IN BUDGET CONSTRALINTS Variables with an asterisk are defined in US$. The rest of the variables are express^.i in local currency at current prices except for those variables marked with (#) which are defined in constant terms. B Bonds C Consumption (#) CR Credit from the central bank Cu Currency in circulation DD Demand deposits E* AoA..rage exchange rate F Pet foreign-currency denominated borrowing FI Factor income I* Investment (#) i Nominal foreign interest rate iD Nomi.aal interest rate on deposits iC Nominal interest rate on credits i Nominal rate of rediscount IA Imports (#) KT Capital transfers NW Net worth OFI Other factor income P&i Distributed profits PN Profit remittances abroad R Foreign reserves RR Legal reserves S Savings SUB Subsidies T* Net current transfers T Net transfers from abroad TD Direct taxes TI Indirect taxes VA* Value added WR* Workers remittances from abroad X Exports (#) Sector-specifii. variables and intersectoral flows are represented by the following suffixes at the end of each variable: b Budgetary government c. Central bank d Banking system 0 Other non-financial public sector (SEEs) g Consolidated non-financial public sector p Private sector m Consolidated monetary sector f Foreign sector t Total 8 Similarly, the banking sector does not pay taxes. We are implicitly assuming that these are paid by the private sector on its behalf. Equation (2.2) defines savings of the non-financial SEEs as the difference between factor income plus transfers from the budget and taxes plus interest payments on its domestic and net foreign-currency denominated debt (hereafter foreign debt). The capital accounts for the budget and non-financial SEEs are given bys: (2.3) Sb PIIb + KTbo + KTbd + KTbp - ABb - EeF*b - ACRb (2.4) so P.I10 + KTop - KTbo - AB0 EAF*0 - ACRQ Equation (2.3) simply states that budgetary savings plus domestic and foreign borrowing are invested and distributed as capital transfers to the =est of domestic sectors except for the central bank. Equation (2.4) shows that non-financial SEEs inve.tment and capital transfers to the private sector are finasiced through its own savings, capital transfers from the budget and domestic and foreign borrowing. It is important to note that changes on the net foreign position of the budget and non-financial SEEs, AF*b and AF*O, do not coincide with recorded balance of payments capital flows to these sectors. This is due to the existence of both cross-currency 1 Throughout the paper, we will use the following conventions: AX a X-X_1; X = AX/X 9 effects and foreign exchange transactions among domestic sectors. The same applies to changes in the net foreign position of the other domestic sectors. In Appendix I we provide a detailed account of how these effects were calculated. Non-Financial Private Sector In our model, the private sector incorporates all domestic economic agents not included elsewhere. It would have been desirable to decompose the private sector in firms and households. There is no doubt that the economic behavior of these groups responds to different incentives, and that modelling them together may obscure some interesting issues. Unfortunately, the lack of data made the task of distinguishing between firms and households impossible. The current account of the private sector is specified as follows: (2.5) VAp + Tb + E(T *fp+WR*) + i *Bp_. + iDD-D1 + P&Ld - TD - ES(i* .F *_+PR*) - PcCp =p p P p Equation (2.5) defines private sector savings as the excess of income, transfers and net interest receipts over consumption. Then, the capital account for the private sector is given by: (2.6) Sp = p1eIp+ ACU + ADD+ AB - E*AF p- KT - KT KT -EOADFI 10p p pp op bp dp 10 This equation explains that private investment, as well as increases in domestic lending and mcney holdings, are financed through savings, foreign borrowing (bond and equity) and capital transfers from other domestic sectors. Financial Sector The financial sector has been divided in the central bank and the banking system, which consists of financial SEEs and private financial institutions. This distinction makes it easier to distinguish among policy variables, e.g. central bank credit, and intermediate variables, e.g. the money supply. The current accounts of the central bank and banking system are given by: (2.7) iRCRt_l + Esi*(R*c-lF *c-l) P&Lc = c (2.8) iCeBd-l - iR CRd-1 - iDD*DD_1 - Eei *F*d-1 - P&Ld = NW Equations (2.7) an (2.8) define the central bank's and banking system's savings (increase in their net worth), respectively. In both cases, savings are equal to the excess of net interest receipts over distributed profits. Note that the banking system does not receive interest on their deposits in the central bank. This is consistent with Turkish financial regulations. The capital accounts of the financial sectors can be written as: (2.9) ANWc = ACRt + Eh(AR*c-AF*c) - AH 11 (2.10) NWd = ACUd+ ARR + ABd - ADD - ACRd- (KTbd-ETdp) - EoAF d Equation (2.9) states that changes in the net worth of the :entral bank and base money creation must equal credit creation and reserve accumulation. The base money consists of currency in circulation in the hands of both the private sector and the banking system (vault cash), and bank reserves. Accordingly, the implicit assumption is that the public sector does not hold money. Equation (2.10) forces the changes in banking sector's assets to be equal to changes in liabilities plus savings and net capital transfers. The former consist of vault cash, reserves in the central bank and domestic credit (net of time deposits). The latter consists of demand deposits, credit from the central bank, foreign borrowing, and savings plus net transfers. Rest of the World To complete the specification of the open economy model we include a foreign sector containing the rest of the world. The budget constraint of the foreign sector is nothing but the balance of payments. The current account is: (2.11) pIMIM-poX+Eo[i *(F*t_l-R )+PR*)-E(T fb+Tfp+WR*) = Sf Equation (2.11) defines foreign saving as the excess of imports and factor payments (interest and profits) over exports, transfers from abroad and worker remittances. The counterpart of this foreign savings is shown in the capital account as direct 12 foreign investmnt plus total debt accumulation minus the increase in c.ntzal bank's foreign reservest (2.12) Sf - B ADFI* 4 Ea(F*t-R*c) The Plow of Funds Presentation An alternativ, presentation of the budget constraints is given by the following expressions: CURRENT SOURCES - CURRENT USES CAPITAL SOURCES - CAPITAL USES Figure 2 presents the budget constraints following this alternative procedure. In the figure, we have two different matrices, one for the current account and one for the capital account. The CURRENT ACCOUNT MATRIX shows how the different sectors finance their respective current expenditure and savings. The CAPITAL ACCOUNT MATRIX gives us a picture of how the sectors finance their capital expenditures. The functioning of both matrices is parallel. Rows represent incomings and columns outgoings, i.e. the rows give us the"sources"of funds for a particular sector while the columns show the "uses" of funds. For example, the intersection of the Budget column with the Private Sector row in the current account gives us the amount of funds that are at the same time current uses for Budget and current sources for the Private Sector. In our frameowrk, these are transfers and interest payments. Total 13 FIGURE 2: SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS MATRIX CURRENT ACCOWiT Gov rnsnt ou0hr Private Central Banking Belnce of Production Total Budget Public Sector Bank S1.t Payenta Account Sources TI tver,nmnt ID* lo PL E*Tf*b udget OFIb Vier Tho Flo ubl ic --tor CppEM .nk anking 1COBb tCSood iCeBpd -lance of I - l d syn nt I E*I-OF*b E-T-oF o E4100FP EOT*FWc Ei*TF*ed _ ~-Xt Consumption Cb Cp hI,11 Mid St and Savings Sb S, Sp AccountI ota I CAPITAL ACCOUNT Governument Other Private Central Banking Balance of Savings Total Budget Public Sector Bank System Paymnt. Account Sources :vernsnt Ibp CRb 5bd E*'Fb Sb udget__ _ _ ___ _ _ _ _ _ ub;,i KTbo Dop 60 03od E061o SO rivet. KTbp KTop AB E*AF Sp _ - _tar _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ E 7 _D_ Central AP EO*F0AW Bank _=d nking KTbd D CEd ElFd = r ance ot E.hR% St Inveetmnnt lb I= Account TotalI Uses 14 sources are represented in the final column of a sector and must equal total uses which are represented in final row of the same sector. In this way, the flow of funds framework assures consistency among the data. II.2 The Behavioral Structure The flow of funds is a useful accounting framework that helps to organize the data in a consistent manner. If we want to use this information for policy analysis, the data framework must be linked to a model that contains the behavioral and technical relationships among variables. In this section we develop a simple behavioral model and append it to the consistency framework described above. I.1.2 The Real Economy For simplicity, we assume that the domestic economy produces only one composite good that can be used for domestic consumption and investment, or sold abroad. The condition of equilibrium in the goods market is: (2.13) Y + IM = Cp + Cb + Ip + Ib + Io + X where C, I, Y, X and IM denote consumption, investment, output, exports and imports of goods and services, respectively. All variables are measured in real terms. In order to provide a complete description of the real side of the model, we must specify the supply-side of the economy and the expenditure functions. 15 The Supply Side On the supply-side of the model, we assume that the economy is operatir. under a fixed coefficients production function and that capital is the constraining factor. Therefore, (2.14) AYF+l 0 BIt where yF is potential output and B is the incremental output- capital ratio or the inverse of the ICOR, corrected by the depreciation rate. It is total investment in the economy. Equation (2.14) is the growth equation. It states that the change in potential income is given by both the amount of investment of the previous period and the efficiency of this investment, as measured by the parameter S. The simplifying assumption that we are making is that investment has the same efficiency across sectors. This assumption can be easily removed by having different 4s for the different economic sectors. Equation (2.15) simply defines total investment as the sum of each sector's investment: (2.15) It I j - b,o,p. Finally, current income and gross output are obtained as: (2.16) Y - YF*cu where cu is the rate of capacity utilization. 16 The Expenditure Functions On the expenditure side, we must specify the consumption, investment, exports and imports equations. we will assume the following: (2.17) Cp - C$Yd (2.18) Ip - op*Y (2.19) 10 - 0*o@FIo (2.20) X - (1+exoq+py *Y )X_1 (2.21) IN - 1MF + IN, + Iv + ING (2.22) I - (1+COq+pC*Ct)oIMC_ (2.23) . (1+eI*q+pI*It)*IX _1 (2.24) IOK - ( A+evq pVY)*IMV l where q is the real exchange rate and Yd is disposable income2; c is the propunsity to consume; Y is the level of income of Turkey's export partners, respectively. as and ps refer to real exchange rate and foreign-income, consumption, investment and income elasticities. Finally, IMC, I', INV and ING refer to consumption, 2 Yd can be obtained from (2.5). Yd - (VAp+Tbp+E@(T*fp+WR* -PR* )+rCBp_l+rDD.DD-1 +P&Ld-TD p -E-r *OF* JPC Note that interest payments have been corrected of advanced capital payments due to inflation. Hence r is tjhe real interest on the asset i. In the case, of foreign debt r is the nominal foreign interest rate corrected for foreign inflation. 17 investment, intermediate and non-monetary gold imports. Ct denotes total consumption: (2.25) Ct = Cp + Cb Equation (2.17) states that consumption demand is linearly dependent on disposable income. Equation (2.18) explains that investment demand is a exogenously given fraction (oap) of GDP. Equation (2.19) projects investment of non-financial SEEs as a share (ao) of their factor income. It is a shortcoming of this model the fact that c and a p do not depend upon the real interest rate and inflation. The former would provide a measure of the opportunity cost of accumulating real assets versus financial assets and/or consumption. The latter would account for the effect of the inflation tax on both investment and consumption. Equation (2.20) assumes export growth to be a function of the growth rate of Turkish export markets and changes in the real exchange rate. Equation (2.21) defines total imports as the sum of consumption, investment, intermediate and non-monetary gold imports. The first three are then projected in (2.22)-(2.24) as a function of total consumption, total investment and GDP at factor cost, respectively. They also depend upon the real exchange rate. Imports of non-monetary gold are projected exogenously. Prolecting Prices and Nominal Variables Once real variables have been calculated, the RMSM-X model computes prices and nominal variables. The former follow these 18 simple rules: (2.26) P =(PE'PE1) (2.27) PI = (1-X)*P + XOPIM (2.28) PIM EOpIM (2.29) PX P where PE is the end-of-period GDP deflator, and pi represents the period average deflator of the expenditure component i, with i = I, IM, X. E is the period average nominal exchange rate, and X and -IM indicate the share of imports in investment demand, and the foreign prices of imports, respectively. Once these prices are obtained, it is straightforward to project nominal variables as follows: (2.30-2.36) NZ = p.JZ Z = Y,IpIIbIIoICbIXIIM' Total nominal consumption is obtained as follows: (2.37) NCP + NCb = NY + NIM - NIp - NIb NIO - NX Equation (2.37) constitutes the "national accounts" of the RMSM presentation. It portrays goods market equilibrium in nominal terms. Finally, the consumption deflator is obtained by dividing total nominal consumption by total real consumption: (2.38) PC = (NCp+NCb)/(CP+Cb) 19 In this way, mathematical consistency among prices and real and nominal variables is achieved.3 1.1.2 The Asset Markets As opposed to the RMSM model, which only includes the real side of the economy, the RMSM-X model integrates both real and monetary aspects. Therefore, we introduce a menu of four assets in the model. Money is defined as currency plus demand deposits, which are held by the private and banking sectors. The foreign asset can be held by all sectors. The domestic bond includes bank credit as well as public debt. Finally, the central bank extends credit to the budget, the non-financial SES and the banking system. The Money Market The RMSM-X model considers the different components of money as perfect substitutes. Therefore, the equilibrium condition in the money market is given bys (2.39) Ms = Md Money demand is projected with this simple rule: (2.40) Md - kpeY 3 As opposed to economic consistency. The latter demands to have as many prices and material balance equations as goods exist in the economy. 20 where k is the --exogenously given -- inverse of the velocity of circulation. Money supply is determined as: (2.41) MN - 'r*H where H is the base money and i- is the money multiplier. These are defined ass (2.42) H - CUp + CUd + RR (2.43) - a (cc+l)/(cc+re) cc and re are the currency to deposits and reserves to deposits ratios. These ratios are given exogenously. Thus, (2.44) cc - (CUp+CUd)/DD (2.45) ra - RR/DD Finally, the fraction of currency in circulation held by the private sector is given bys (2.46) - CUp/(CUp+CUd) where 0 is a given parameter. Foreign Credit Market We assume that there is only one type of foreign-currency- denominated asset. This allows us to state the following equilibrium condition in the foreign credit market: (2.47) F*bd + F* d + * pd + 2 + (F*c-R*c) d = F*t Equation (2.47) states that the sum of the net demands for foreign credit of each of the national sectors must equal the total supply of foreign credit. The demand for foreign credit of the private and banking sectors are given by: (2.48) F pd OF*poY/EE (2.49) F dd = pF(l-re)*DD/EE where PF and OF are fixed parameters and EE is the end of period nomirnal exchange rate. The relationship between the end of period and period average exchange rates is given by: (2.50) E = (EE*EE-1)4 Note that *F and PF in (2.48-2.49) do not depend upon the relative rates of return on the different assets (including the rate of currency depreciation). This is an unrealistic assumption that we are forced to make in the absence of econometric estimates of asset demand equations. On the supply side two assumptions are possible. First, the country is credit constrained. In this case, F *ts and i* would be exogenously determined: (2.51) F t = t (2.52) i* = 1* F t and I would be calculated in the debt module. This case has been traditionally labeled the "availabilities" model in 22 operational work in the Bank. The other possible assumption is that the country can borrow in the international market at an interest rate that can be fixed or increasing. This interest rate would be calculated as follows: (2.52') i* = i eF e/F*t + i* n(F t-F e)/F*t where i*et and F e are the interest rate and amount of already e~~~~~~~ contracted (existing) credit, and i n is the interest rate on new credit. These variables are obtained in the debt module. This case has been traditionally called the "requirements" model. Domestic Assets There are two domestic assets other than money: the domestic bond and central bank credit. The domestic bond, issued by the budget, other public and/or private sectors, is held by the private and/or banking sectors. This market could be disaggregated into credit provided by the financial system and domestic public debt sold to the private non-financial sector. While this further distinction may appear very appropriate, one should be aware that it will be entirely irrelevant for practical purposes unless both assets are assumed imperfect substitutes from the viewpoint of at least one economic sector. In addition, this imperfect substitutability should be explicitly embedded somewhere in the model. Of course, this would require the specification of distinct supply and/or demand rules for each of the assets. This disaggregation would introduce unnecessary complications when we 23 cannot back it with meaningful behavioral assumptions. The condition of equilibrium in the domestic bond market is given by the following equation: (2.53) Bbs + Bos = gpd + Bdd Equation (2.53) states that the net supply of the domestic bond by the budget and other public sector, must equal the net demand by the private and banking sectors. We enter the interest rate on bonds exogenously: (2-54) ir = This assumption could be interpreted as having a perfectly elastic supply or demand for credit. This would be an unrealistic assumption and the user must carefully project the interest rate consistently with the evolution of demand and supply. The banking sector's demand for bonds is calculated as: (2.55) Bd = pB(l-re)DD where PB is a given parameter. The other domestic asset consists of the central bank credit. The equation that must be satisfied in order to assure equilibrium in the central bank's credit market is: (2.56) CRt" = CRbd + CRod + CRdd Equation (2.56) states that overall credit extended by the central bank is distributed among the budget, the other public 24 sector and the banking system 11.3. Closing the xodel If we consider each budget constraint as a single equation4 and substitute the behavioral relationships into the budget constraints and the market equilibrium conditions, we obtain a system of eleven equations. This is the compact form of the model. Given that the sum of all budget constraints is equal to the sum of the excess demands of all markets, one equation is linearly dependent on all others. Consequently, we can solve for a set of ten endogenous variables. The appropriate selection of the set of ten endogenous (or residual) variables depends upon the purpose of the simulation exercise to be undertaken. Nonetheless, the mathematical structure of the model imposes one restriction on the set of variables chosen. This condition is that each of the eleven equations must contain at least one endogenous variable. If this condition is not satisfied, the system cannot be solved. Note that this requirement applies to the eleven equations above. The choice of the set of endogenous variables determines whether the solution of the model is recursive, simultaneous, or if it has both simultaneous and recursive blocks. For simplicity, we will only consider those sets of endogenous variables that allow a recursive solution to the model. The purpose of this restriction 4 That is, if savings variables are always obtained as residuals. 25 is to reduce the software requirements. The RMSM-XX version of the Turkey model will extend the class of models to those requiring a simultaneous solution. There are many closure rules that are meaningful from the economic point of view. In the application for Turkey we have chosen to implement four alternative possibilities that are shown in Table 2. The four closure rules result from a two-dimensional classification. TABLE 2: CLOSURE RULES FOREIGN CREDIT CONSTRAINT Yes No Financial Normative Normative Programming & & USE OF THE Availabilities Requirements MODEL Positive Positive Projections & & Availabilities Requirements On the one hand, the Turkey RMSM-X can be used both for assessing the effects on the target variables of alternative macroeconomic programs and for obtaining the values of the policy variables that would be consistent with a set of exogenously given targets. In the first case, the policy variables would be determined exogenously, and the model would give us their most likely effects on the target variables. This closure rule defines a positive model which is useful to make projections of the "most 26 likely scenario", or to analyze the effects of proposed policies. In the second case, the purpose is not to find out the most likely path for a number of variables, but to determine which are the values of the instrumental variables that would be consistent with the desired levels of the objective variables. This closure defines a normative model. This closure rule will be preferred when the model is used to design a feasible financial or macroeconomic program. On the other hand, the model can be used with or without a binding upper bound on foreign credit. If the RMSM-X is used without a credit constraint or target, we will follow Bank's convention and call it a "requirements" model. In this case, the debt module would provide the RMSM-X with a credit supply schedule. The foreign credit market would be solved in the RMSM-X together with the rest of the macroeconomic model. If we use the model with a binding credit constraint, we label it the 'availabilities" model. Now the debt module would provide us with the amount of foreign credit that has been targeted or is available, and the RMSM-X would calculate the implications for macroeconomic policy or the effects on the target variablea. Before turning to the description of each model closure, we must warn the reader that the recursive nature of the model does not allow for the explicit consideration of all the relevant economic relationships among variables. As a result, it becomes necessary to check some of these relationships 'ex-post'. For example, the model does not directly relate consumption and 27 investment to the real interest rate or the velocity of circulation to inflation and interest rates. All these must be checked 'ex- post'. If these tests are not satisfactory, another iteration, reconsidering some of the assumptions and/or targets, is needed. In the rest of this subsection we first define the projection rules for some exogenous variables. Then we consider a positive and a normative closure for the model. We describe first the "requirements" version of both normative and positive closure rules. Then, we show how these closures are modified under the "availabilities" case. Projecting Exogenous Variables We project the following variables according to the rules: (2.57) FIo = fiop*Y (2.58) OFIb = ofiepOY (2.59) VAp = p*Y - FIo - OFIb - TI + SUB (2.60) TI = t yY + tIMOIM (2.61) TDp = tp*VAp (2.62) TDO = to*FIO (2.63) SUB = t5eY Then we project transfers among domestic sectors as follows: (2.64-2.70) X = (1+w)*XX1; X = TboITbptKTbo,KTbd,KTbp,KTop,KTdp. and transfers among domestic and the foreign sector: 28 (2.71-2.73) X - (1+4w)*X_1; X = T fb,T fpoWR- Finally, there are some variables that we project exogenously. These ares DFI , PR , P&Lcl P&Ld, iDD and iR. The Normative Model The purpose of this model closure is to find the fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies that are consistent with a given set of macroeconomic policy objectives. The first step is to set up tarlets for the inflation rate (X), full employment growth rate (g), the real exchange rate (q), and foreign reserves as a certain number of months of imports- (res). This allows us to calculate p, YF, E and R *d: (2.74) p - (1+)*p_1 (2.75) YF - (l+g)*YF (2.76) E - q(p/pIM *) (2.77) R d * reso[(IM/E)/12] Once we have set these targets, the model solves for the values of policy variables that would be consistent with this objectives, given our assumptions. Figure 3 shows our proposed closure rule for a normative type model closure.5 We start with the goods market. Note first, that the growth equation, (2.14), and the definition of total investment, (2.15), determine the S5 This type of closure is consistent with the Fund's financial programming approach as presented in IMF Institute (1981). 29 FIGURE S: THE NORMATIVE AND REQUIREMENTS MODEL Fix Targets: g, W, q, res. Goods Balance of money Marle Payments Market Cb AFt H Foreign-Asset Central Bank Market Balance Sheet f ---- F*g{ I CRt < Public Sector Budget S [It] | CR_ _ Central ,c-CRg< Bank <- CRd < Banking System Credit Balance Sheet residual CRO Market t B9 |estic Bond Bp t.8 25&.9 Cf:o H iBo Domesttc OuBds 486.2 1069.2 (CoICU' Ree) N iBop To Privote Sector 0.0 0.0 H iBod to Bankirg System 486.2 t069.2 (8od'iC) H ifGo foreign Borrowiing 275.5 509.9 (BQP date) H tCURo Current Expcnditure 1491.0 2686.9 (Calcutated) H So Savings 1050.0 1168.9 (Residutl) H lo Investrwent 35SS.6 4624.6 (Fiscal date) H dfXoc Foreign EAchange Depvs: s at CEI -88.2 145. (tC date) H tlop (apital fransfers to PS 315.3 482.3 (fiscat data) H ECAPo Capital Expenditures 3782.7 5252.0 (Calculated) DEOfo Deficit 2132.7 4083.1 (Calculated) f i nanrincg: H Klbo Capital Transfers from Budget 289.7 666.2 (Fiscat data) H dCRo Centrat Bank Credit 531.5 13.8 (From CB stocks) H dBo Domestic Borrouirg 629.3 1543.7 (Calculated) H dBod From Banking System 629.3 1543.7 (From OS stocks) H loOp from Private Sector 0.0 0.0 H dfGo Foreign Borroving 1282.2 1699.4 (Fiscal data) Stocks of Debt: TABLE I: HISTORICAL DATA " CRo Central Bank Credit 501.1 674.9 (CO data) H so Domestic Bonds 1721.8 3265.5 (Calculated) H Sod Banking Systm 1721.8 3265.5 (CO data) H Bop Priv-te Sector 0.0 0.0 H fo Foreign Debt 4215.3 7466.6 (otiF) BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (PiLL USS) Codes MD Xt Exports 14196.0 17398.0 (BOP data) HD lit lIports 15284.0 15600.0 (SOP data) HD lini Investment goods 3817.0 3989.0 HD INC Consumption goods 2287.0 2370.0 HD lilV Intermediate goods 9180.0 9241.0 ND RB Ilesource Baionee -1088.0 1798.0 (Calcutated) HD ift Interest Pe,-ints 2209.0 2527.0 HD IFGb Budget 1215.0 135B.0 (Standard tables) HD ifGo SEEs 322.0 360.0 (Standard Isbles) HD iF&p Private 61.8 23.2 (iffp) hD diGd Banking System 287.6 4Ofl3 (TFlfd) liD iFGc Central 8an( 676.k 7°.?7 ItD iRESc CO's foreign R2srve, r 2G0.1 ?t5 8 C1¢ec9 LiD RE Sd BS4s 5o.gn Resevc 75 iD PR ProFit RC'.itinccs -211.Ii -tp DIN 'rt3 Hi) ift&PR iiotor Paysnts 1996.0 21'1P n (Colculated) oi) lib foreign Transfers to Budget 81.0 R9.G (BC0 data) iiD lIp foreign Irons(ers to PS 0.0 e.Q fP0S e p ) HD WR Workers Remittances 2021.0 1755.0 (SOP datm) HD Itt Total foreign Transfers 2102.0 1344.0 (Colculated) iiD Sf foreign Savings 982.0 -1503.0 (S0? data) HO DFI foreign Investment 110.0 352.0 (HOP data) Capital Inflows: KU dFGb Budget -764.6 468.3 (H dFb/D AER) HD dFGo SEEs 1498.4 1199.7 (H dFo/D AER) HD dFGp Private -899.2 -1052.2 (Residual) TABLE 1 : HISlO-ICAt DAle HD dFCd Banking System 1237.8 907.2 (Calc. from CI data) MD dFGc Central BSnk 895.7 -1666.9 (Calc. from CB data) ND dFt flat Capital Inflois 1968.0 -146.0 (Calculated) Changes in Foreign Reserves: ND dxESc Central Bank 993.0 U88.0 (From OP) UP dRESd Baking System 103.0 621.0 Stocks of Debt: ND Ft lotal Debt 40932.0 3f592.2 (Calculated) ND Fb udqet 19526.0 19222.2 (ND iFblIf) ND FGb Excernat Debt 20516.0 20318.7 ND FXbc ioreign Exchange Deposits at CB 990.0 1096.S ND fo SEEs 4129.0 4114.3 (ND IFoliF) ND fGo External Debt 4249.7 4332.7 ND FXoc Foreign Exchange Deposits at CB 120.7 216.5 ND fp Private Sector -3222.4 -2277.3 (Residual) HD FCp External Debt 305.6 733.? ND FXpd Foreign Exchange Deposits at DS 3528.0 3011.0 ND Fc Central Sank 14131.8 11981.4 (From CB stocks) HN FCc External Debt 1064.4 8276.0 HD FXbc Foreign Exchange Deposits of Budget 990.0 1096.5 HN Fxoc foreign Exchange Deposits of SEEs 120.7 218.5 nD FXdc Foreign Exchange Deposits of SS 2556.6 2390.S ND fd Banking System 6367.6 6551.7 (From CB stocks) )D FGd External Debt 5396.3 5931.2 ND FXpd Foreign Exchange Deposits of PS 3528.0 3011.0 ND FXdc Foreign Exchange Deposits at CB 25S6.8 2390.5 ND RESc Foreign Reserves of CS 324S.5 3671.2 (From CS stocks wd S1P) HD RESd Foreign Reserves held by BS 2241.0 2921.0 BALMCE OF PAYHENTS (SLL E.L.) (3zdes H Xt Eiports 12147.4 24644.1 (SOP data) H IKt Imperts 13078.4 22097.2 (BOP data) H SI Imnvestmnmt goods 3266.2 56S0.4 H InC Consumption goods 1957.0 3357.1 H 3KV Intermediate goods 7855.2 13089.8 N RB Resource Sai.me -931.0 25456. (Calculated) N iFt Interest Payments 1890.2 3579.5 N iFGb Budget 1039.7 1923.6 (Staidard Tables) N uFGo SEEs 275.5 5 .9 (Standard Tables) ]ABLE 1 HISTORICAL DATA it ifGp Private 52.9 32.8 (iffp) H ifGd Banking System 246.1 579.0 (iF*Fd) N iFGc Central Bank 578.8 1122.8 (iFlFc) n iRESc tSs Foreign Reserves (-) 178.1 348.2 iFfIIFAc) N iRESd CSsa Foreign Reserves (-) 124.7 240.5 H PR Prof it Remittances -182.3 *549.6 (0.1Z of GDP) H ift4PR Factor Paymnts 1708.0 3029.9 (Calculated) ........ ............. ......... . . . - -- - ................. .. HIfb Foreign Trasfers to fJudget 69.3 126.1 (SOP data) N lip Foreign Transfers to PS 0.0 0.0 (Residual) H US Uorkers Remittances 1729.3 2485.9 (fOP data) N Ift Total Foreign Transfers 1798.7 2612.0 (Calculated) ....... .............................................. .......... . .............. .......... H Sf Foreign Savings 540.3 -2129.0 (BOP data) N DFI foreign Investment 94.1 498.6 (SWP data) Capital inftows: N dFGb Budget -654.3 663.3 (Standard Tables) H dFGo SEfs 1282.2 1699.4 (Standard tables) H dFGp Private -769.5 -1490.5 (Residual) N dAFCd Banking System 1059.1 1285.0 (CaIc. from CS dota) H dAfGc Central Sank 766.4 -2364.0 SCalc. from CB data) N dft lota; Capital Inflows 1684.0 -206.8 (Calculated) .......................................... --- -- -- ----------..... ..... Changes in foreign Reserves H dARESc Centrat bwnk 849.7 1257.8 (From CB stocks) H dARESd Banking System 88.1 1162.9 Stocks of Oebt: H Ft Total Debt 41787.5 71852.0 (CaIc. 6 Debt Management report) H fb Budget 19934.1 34884.4 (ND Fb*H EER) Hfo SEEs 4215.3 7466.6 (HD FoH EER) H fp Private Sector -3289.7 -4132.8 (Residual) H Fc Central Bank 14427.2 21743.8 (From CB stocks) H fd Banking System 6500.6 11890.0 (From CB stocks) N RESc Foreign Reserves of CS 3313.3 6662.5 (From CB stocks) CENTRAL BANK Code. ............ CURRENI ACCOJUT: TABLE 1 HIStORICAL DAIA 1. Revenues: Interest Received from: H iRESc Foreign Reserves 178.1 348.2 (iFNFAc) H iCRb Budget 798.5 1048.8 (iR*CRb) H iCRo SEEs -11.8 254.9 (iRCRo) H iCRd Banking System -209.4 -245.6 (iR*CRd) 2. ExpendCtures: Interest Payments on FX Deposits; H iFi;c Foreign 578.8 1122.8 (iF*Fc) Hi ;foc Budget 50.0 106.2 Hifxoc SEEs 15.0 12.9 H ifXdc Banking Syste. 115.2 276.3 H 8E.c Prohit & Losses 1433.3 1235.6 (Residuol) H dfl9 Chonge3 in ; 2ortA 1435.9 -1395.7 (Residul CC's Ltccksi . ... ~... . . . . .. - - - - -... . CAPITAL ACCQIUJT 1. Chonge in Assets H C7:slc roncin Rese9-vc ucd 8(.9. 7 25Z.8 (Calc. arr crza E 2 l H CCS17 Cross-Currency Revaluolion -295. e 6542e X RR 1 rvevaluatson Ef cc "'°~~?,~ 0 5 87b6 2 Scr!lc. crx,- cm,8.- drt:s' H ..SR3c «oreign ses^r-^ 1364'.4 3349.2 tFros Stochsi . . .. ..... ... ... -- . . . . . .. .....2 ,'r. .. .k Doanest c Crcdt to: (Calcutated) HdRb Dudget -1.4 -494.4 (From Stocks) H dC4?o SEEs53517a H dCfld Banking Systce 531.5 113.8 58.1 -365.0 (From Stocks) N dCSt total Domestic Credit 588.2 -685.6 2. Change in liabilities H dCUt Currency in Circulation 1010.3 1474.3 H dCUp Currency in Private sector 859.6 1150.9 (From Stocks) H dCWd Vault Cash 150.7 323.4 (from Stocks) H cDdc Deposits of Banking System1 328.0 2692 1 Hf dH ease .oney 1338.3 4166.4 (Calculated) ~~~~~~~~~~~~~..... . ... . ... . . . HdAFGc foreign Debt (Adjusted) 766.4 -2364.0 (Calc. from CBIBDP data) Foreign Exchange Deposits: n dfXbc BuSget 191.1 183.9 H dfXoc SEEs-8.141 H dfxdc an8ing System o88.2 145.1 Banking System ~~~667.3 -163.5 TABLE 1: HISTORICAL DATA H *CR2c Cross-Currency Revaluation 1080.5 -47.7 H dRV2c Revaluation Effect 3418.8 10362.7 H dfc Foreign Debt 6035.8 7316.6 H rHUc Met Worth -1436.9 -1395.7 (Residual CO's stocks) H lRVTc Total Revaluation Effects -4004.6 -7423.7 (CaIc. from CB&BOP data) H dNOLc Net Other Liabilities -5441.5 -8819.4 (Calculated) .... .... ..... ....... . .... ..... -- - - - - - - - - - CENTRAL BANK Codes - - -- STOCKS: 1. Assets H RESc Foreign Reserves 3313.3 6662.5 (HD NFAc*AER) Domestic Credit to: H CRb Budget 2062.0 1567.6 (CS data) " CRo SEEs 501.1 674.9 (CD data) H CRd Benking System -482.9 -847.9 (CS data) f CRt lotal Domestic Cred 2080.2 1394.6 .. ......- - - - - - - - - . . . . . . . . . . - - - - - -..... . . . ...... . 2. Liabitities Cut Currency in Circulation 3044.1 4513.4 tl CUP Currency in Private Sector 2274.7 3425.6 (CB data) N LtI vault Cash 769.4 1092.8 (calculated) 1 DIc Deposits of Banking System 1889.5 4581.6 H Il 8ase Money 4933.6 9100.0 (CB data) H Fe Foreign Debt 14427.2 21743.8 (CB data) H Uc Net Worth -5397.4 -6793.1 (Residual) H RVic Revaluation Account -8569.9 -15993.6 (Caic. from CBISU°P datal H MOLc Net Others Liabilities -13967.3 -22786.7 (Calculated) .... .... ... ... .. ....... ........ ... .. ..... ..... Nemorandum Items: HD RESc foreign Reserves (m. USS) 3245.5 3671.2 (CB anrinual report) IABtE I NISIORICAL DATA H iR Rate of Rediscount 0.387 0.509 (Calculated from CO data) H iC Interest Rate on Domestic Bonds 0.445 0.621 (Table 34) H iDD Interest Rate on Deposits 0.100 0.280 (Calculated from CO data) BANKING SYSTEM Codes CURRENT ACCOINT: 1. Revenwe Returns from: N iBbd Budget Bonds 23.4 531.0 (IC*Bbd) N iBod SEEs Bonds 486.2 1069.2 (ICUod) N iBpd Private Bonds 1301.1 3680.5 (IC*Ipd) N iBd Total Returna from Bonds 1810.7 528C.7 (Calculated) H iFxdc Interest from FX Deposits at CB 115.2 274.3 N iRESd Interest from Foreign Reserves 124.7 240.5 2. Expenditure Interest Payments to: N ilpd Private Sector 534.8 2173.4 (iD*Dpd) N iDDp Demnd Deposits 392.7 1794.9 N iFXpd FX Deposits 142.2 378.6 H iCRd Central Bank -209.4 -245.6 (iRtClId) H iFGd Foreign Sector 246.1 579.0 (iFFd) co H P4Ld Profit I Losses 498.4 -1798.4 (Residuall N hdWd Net Uorth 980.6 5007.0 - .--........------.--...------ . . . .......... . ...... ....... CAPITAL ACCIINT: 1. Chane in Assets N dCUd Vault Cash 150.7 323.4 (From Stoks) H CDdc Deposits at CB 328.0 2692.1 Bornds: N cdlbd dudget 802.5 1401.S (From Stocks) N dBod SEEs 629.3 1543.7 (From Stocks) N cipd Private Sector 3002.8 -566.6 (From Stocks) N cBd Total Bonds 4434.6 2378.6 (Calculated) 1 dlXdc FX Deposits at CB 667.3 -163.5 N dARESd Reserves of Banking System 88.1 1162.9 ... apita T s tr.............................i e S r -1 H ldp Capital Transfers to Private Sector 110.4 613.6 IABLE 1 HISTORICAL DAIA 2. Change in Liabilities H dDDp Demand Deposits from Private Sector 2474.3 1473.0 (From Stocks) H dFXpd fX Deposits from Private Sector 1130.4 -641.5 H dCRd CrAdit from Central Sank 58.1 -365.0 (From Stocks) H KTbd Capital Transfers from Budget 76.5 168.7 HC dAfGd Foreign Borrowing (Adjusted) 1059.1 1285.0 (CaIc. from CB&OP data) H CCRd Cross-Currency Revaluation 244.8 -346.4 H dRVd Revaluation Effect 893.6 3078.6 H4 dfd Foreign Borrowing 3482.0 5389.4 ... .... ........... ............- - -- -- ....... ... H cfRVld Revaluation Account 1138.4 2732.2 (Calc. from CBIHOP data) H cdHUd Met Worth 980.6 Sf087.0 (Residual IS' stocks) H dSOtd Met Other Liabilities -157.8 2354.8 BANKING SYSTEN STOCK bALANCE SHEET: 1. Assets N CUd Vault Cash 769.4 1092.8 (CB data) H Ddc Deposits at CB 1889.5 4581.6 lornds: H Bbd JBanking System 855.0 2256.5 (CB data) N fod SEEs 1721.8 3265.5 (CB data) H Spd Private Sector 5926.7 S360.1 (CB data) H Bd lotal Bonds 8503.5 10882.1 ... .. ..... ........ ... ... .... . ... ... .... ... .. ...... H Kd Real Assets 110.4 724.0 Codes 2. Liabilities H DOp Deposit from Private Sector 6400.8 7873.8 (CB data) H CRd Credit from Central Bank -482.9 -847.9 (CB data) H Fd Foreign Borrowing 6500.6 11890.0 (CB data) H Kbd Paid in Capital 76.5 245.2 H MWd met worth -1666.6 3420.4 (Residual) H RVTd Revaluation 2732.2 0.0 (CaIc. from CB3OP data) H MXd Net Others Liabilities 1065.6 3420.4 (Calculated) hd fd 6367.6 6551.7 TABLE 1 : HISIORICAI DAIA h id 6500.6 1189a.o h 'esd 2287.8 5301.0 PRIVATE SECTOR f sl>rs Valued Added 50710.5 66-463.9 Workers Remittincc5 1729.3 2?485 9 lew datc1 T:. ransfers fromn Abroad O.D rJ a (SiO9 d3ite) Transfers ero= ekpd5J 1941.4 (Sesidusi eu.S Interest Received f:c',, <' 6tJ ? _ .J -? 5,T 2.6!' -2.c, 2 A2. A jo 'Mr; l *i 55- 3 t.557 1557 i.55! 1.5; 1 551 ; 5' ^5 I fiW.1 f 0 1terrmrL.-to .rx. 0 5z? 2-,27 '.2 I ,'s27 2? ? .52 iS?' .) 52, * '41 lestici ty o.f 'fYuoC .ls .o: ith Ct ' ')StST<)e l.or. 1 *t~oo l.oc e C 1 5. . ,. 7 ., , t.0r,ur Al \ l N1 11r,>>sior~ 5.'W lL. . nc-S , C 057 5 .15 & - -^ . K¢rCLC q ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~to i'.tJ) .-ti 00 ^.Ii Q ! t2;.. .>,'"''1''' ¢C API' !Mint [^O' <'I s e'I;15f, C (";r)5t .... 3 J:,I D). C'J (,1, E pri:5t E1,3stc1t7cs: A ..' rt iorcl2An lr:CCfxr 1 750 i.. >o I5t; ? 105 1., 1 . 1. 4:fj .50. X .RR LRf 1.150 1.150 1;50, 115.53 1.,' 1 T . I ' 1750 ':reArgn lnccaotBe Grcwc t 0 018 0.630 0030 017?0 0' 0, 0.030 0.030 I r.mAt i tpol4s Prrie OrKeI a88 1.0CC 1.690 r.919 C0,Z 3,A2 '5.29. '.-65 45so0 ,. . .. .. . . . . .. .. .. . . . . .. .. . . .. .... .. . (c) Iransters (Nit 11SS) AC lIb Budgetary Gove,rAent 126.1 132.1 1;A.7 4,5.r 15.'0 160.6 t8. 6 117.1 AD lfp Private Sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AD WR Workers Remittances 2485.9 2605.7 2300.0 2415.0 2535.8i 2662.5 ?795.7 293S.4 (f) Other AD Dfi foreign Investment 498.6 522.6 548.7 576.2 605.0 635.? 667.0 700.4 NA11OtIAL ACCOUNIS 'a) Consurst ion A rCp.vd Cp's share Yd 0.793 0.812 0.840 0.o40 0.840 0.840 0.840 0.840 ..... ..................................... ....... ............ .................. ............................................. . (b) Investment A ICOR ICOR 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.500 5.5A0 5.500 5.500 (c) Other A rGOP.FGDP Capacity Utilization - 0.991 0.'V1 0.950 0.965 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 A rPR.GDP Profit Remiittances/lD1 -0.005 -0.006 -0.006 -0.006 -U.007 -0.007 -0.007 -0.008 TABLE 2: ASS9MPIIONS FOR TIE POSITIVE CLOSURE Base Case Scenario -AR SECO1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 WDCXETARY SEClORl (a) Revenues A rFDo.FIo SEEs Direct TaXes/Flo 0.250 0.110 0.110 0 110 0.110 0.110 D ;iO 0.110 A rtDp.VAp PS's Direct laxes/VAp 0.112 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.093 0.392 0.092 A rII.GDP Indirect Taxes/GOP 0.112 0.103 0.103 0.103 D.ACI 0.103 0.103 0.103 A rOfIb.GDP Budget's OFl:GDP 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 0.017 (b) Expencditures A2K Cb Consc.mnption (Con: t TL88) 9002.8 10749.? 11091.4 11777.9 12380.8 12942.4 13520.0 14114.6 A2X lb Investment (Const,. , TL88) 7377.5 4914.0 506i.0 5368.8 5635.6 5862.8 6136.5 6397.2 A SuLb Subsidies (Bit Il) 2229.6 3747.8 6783.0 12280.0 ?22926. 40050.3 72072.9 129771.5 A lbo GLrrcnt 7:aiosters to SEsEs 426.3 716 6 1296.9 2347.9 4263.0 '657.7 37N.Q4 24 9 0 i,;4 Ctirruzo ir:ransers to PS ?aK .9 .(56 875$.Q 159 1 ' 2$C2 2 35335 .T= '>- 3 p ;o t,!a15 fransers eo SEE '$ 2 117,' 3 ??2'. .,'$9.2 2 B2 ' R F n. S- -. 2' z: ?. ' as 2 -Y2 2 .-^ ~~ /. . * r F > - > >5i. *. u.dc . . . . . . . . . . .2. .-.2~fL I2 V (c) OtiLeis A42 g(H sa~e Money (;fowth 0.844 0. 9120 U 612£ 4i..3LC U 30 J .O2C 0.6321 .ECD A P&IL Prof't 9 Lus,,es ot 128 ?1d2.? 2198.1 39?8.3 P212 L i307o 240. 1187,f. P&I .0 ...0. -,~l . ,6c I A ~~&id 4 LProfit of Bs 1798.4 -1798.4 -1198.4 -I74 4 ~1798 4 -179&.4 -1798.4 -1795.4 UliIR ASSLUMI'I 1(iH2~ A 9N Poputatton Growth 0.024 0.024 0 r24 0.0,3 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 IA8tE 3: DERIVED INDICAIORS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 199?2 1993 1994 1995 NAI 1ONA ACCOUNIS gFCDP Full Eaployment Growth 0.047 0.043 0.039 0.040 0.041 0.040 0.040 0.039 A rGDP.FGDP Capacity Utilization 0.991 0.961 0.950 0.965 0.970 0.970 0 970 0.970 K gOP Actual COP Crowth 0.037 0.012 0.027 0.057 0.046 0.040 o.040 0.039 K gAS5 Absorption Grouth -0.013 0.052 0.0S9 0.057 0.044 0.037 0.037 0.036 As share of GDP: rRB.CDP Resource Balance 0.025 0.002 -0.312 -0.013 -0.011 -0.008 -O.O0S -0.003 rXt.GDP Exports 0.245 0.232 0.221 0.219 0.219 0.221 0.222 0.223 rIMt.CDP Imports 0.220 0.230 0.233 0.232 0.230 0.228 0.227 0.225 rCt.GDP Cons.uptilon 0.736 0.780 0.786 0.788 0.790 0.791 0.792 0.793 rCp.COP Private 0.648 0.674 0.682 0.684 0.685 0.685 0.686 0.686 rCb.CDP Public 0.088 O.1U6 0.104 0.105 0.105 0.106 0.106 0.106 rIt.GDP Investment 0.239 0.218 0.226 0.224 0.221 0.217 0.213 0.210 rIp.GDP Private 0.130 0.126 0.135 0.133 0.129 0.125 0.121 0.118 rIg.GDP Puiblic 0.109 0.092 0.091 0.091 0.091 0.092 0.092 0.092 I gpGCP Inflation (e.o.p.) 0.681 0.681 0.633 0.762 0.721 0.730 0.731 0.732 I gpACGP Inflation (p.s.) 0.664 0.690 0.763 0.713 0.n35 0.727 0.731 0.732 K AER Real AER 1.000 0.936 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 K tC Real iC -0.020 -0.053 -0.047 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 r'.GDP "I/COP 0.092 0.107 0.115 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 0.111 gm Money Growth 0.312 0.989 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 A rlDp.VAp Direct lax Rate 0.112 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 0.092 A rIlI.GP Inctirect lax Rate 0.112 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 0.103 rCp.N Consumption per capita -0.032 0.028 0.033 0.037 0.025 0.019 0.018 0.018 ....... ...........,,,,,- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -....- - - - - -,- -,- -_- -__-__-._- -_- -_- - - - - - - - - - -......... ._ __ __ ASSET MARKETS 1 .Money: rGDP." Income-Velocity 10.924 9.338 8.700 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 I gpGOP Inflation (e.o.p.) 0.681 0.681 0.633 0.762 0.721 0.730 0.731 0.732 rCUp.M Currency/HI 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.276 0.276 rOOd.M Deposits(N1 0.635 0.635 0.635 0.635 0.635 0.635 0.635 0.635 rM.H Money Multiplier 1.362 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 A rCUt.DOp Currency/Deposits 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 A rOdc.DDp Reserves/Deposits 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 rN.GDP Base MoneytGOP 0.090 0.101 0.100 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 0.099 9g Base Money Grouth 0.844 0.900 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 0.800 rRESc.H RESc/lase Money 0.7n2 0.973 0.940 0.865 0.823 0.843 0.981 1.024 rCRt.Ht Domestic Credit/Base Money 0.153 0.051 0.145 0.318 0.487 0.623 0.686 0.698 IABLE 3 : DERIVED INDICAIORS Base Case Scenario 1908 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2.Do.estic Bond: UpLd finncial wealth 10645.37 23076.65 38932.91 68360.77 125333.8 235266.9 444718.1 82913.4 rBpBd.Wp4d Bp&dIA4Bd 0.876 0.811 0.806 0.736 0.656 0.590 0.58K 0.590 3.Foreign worrowing: rFp4d.WpLd (-Fpgd)/Wpgd -0.715 -0.560 -0.606 -0.556 -0.461 -0.361 -0.319 -0.256 4.Interest Rates: K iC Reai iC -0.020 -0.053 -0.047 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 K iR seal iR -0.088 -0.068 -0.000 -0.070 -0.060 -0.050 -0.040 -0.030 K iD0 Real iD -0.226 -0.259 -0.250 -0.220 -0.190 -0.160 -0.130 -0.100 iC Nominal iC 0.621 0.600 0.680 0.739 0.762 0.753 0.757 0.75S i ZNominal iR 0.509 0.541 0.622 0.593 0.631 0.640 0.662 0.680 iDO Noa.rm, iDo 0.280 0.252 0.322 0.336 0.406 0.450 0.506 O.S59 D i Foreign i 0.076 0.063 0.064 0.064 0.065 0.066 0.068 0.071 gEER Depreciation rate 8.778 0.513 0.607 0.645 0.648 0.647 O.649 0.397 FISNER -0.034 0.091 0.110 0.107 0.109 0.108 0.100 0.108 AK IC -0.020 -0.053 -0.047 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 FPULIC SEC1OR A) Nominal PSbR: rDE b.tDP Budget Deficit/GDP 0.035 0.043 0.044 0.047 0.051 0.054 0.058 0.062 I rdCRb.GDP dCRb/GDP -0.005 -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.005 rdcb.GDP dkW/GDP 0.034 0.036 0.037 0.040 0.043 0.046 0.049 0.053 rdFb.GDP dFb/GDP 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 o.do o.004 o.04 0.004 rDEFo.GDP SEEs Deficit/GDP 0.041 0.026 0.025 0.026 0.026 0.027 0.027 0.027 rdCRo.GDP dCRo/GDP 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 rdBo.GDP dRo/GDP 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 rdFo.GDP dfo/GDP 0.017 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 rKlbo.GDP KIbo/GDP 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 rOEfg.GDP Non-Financial Public Def./GDP 0.069 0.062 0.063 0.067 0.071 0.074 0.078 0.083 rdCRg.GDP dCRg/GOP -0.003 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.005 O.C06 0.007 rdBg.GDP dBgIGDP 0.049 0.051 0.051 0.055 0.058 0.061 0.064 0.068 rdFg.GDP dfg/UDP 0.023 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 rDtIps.GDP Consolidated Public Def./GDP 0.085 0.077 0.077 0.077 0.074 0,071 0.068 0.069 rdH.GDP dH/GDP 0.041 0.048 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 rcBACRps.tOP dB&CRps/GDP 0.053 0.054 0.041 0.034 0.031 0.031 0.037 0.044 rdfps.GDP dFpsiGDP -0.011 -0.024 -0.008 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004 -0.012 -0.019 IABLE 3 : DERIVED INDICATORS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Inflation-Adjusted PSfR: rADEFb.GDP Budget Deficit/GDP 0.004 0.016 0.013 0.015 0.015 0.016 0.016 0.016 rAdCRb.GDP dCRb/GDP -0.017 -0.007 -0.002 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 rAdEb.GDP dSd/GDP 0.015 0.016 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.010 0.011 rdfb.GDP dFb/GDP 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 rADEFo.GDP SEEs Deficit/GDP 0.026 0.011 0.010 0.012 0.012 0.012 0.013 0.013 rAdCRo.GDP dCRo/GDP -0.001 -0.002 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 rAdOo.GDP dHo/GDP 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 rdFo.COP dFo/GDP 0.017 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 rKlbo.GDP KTbo/GDP 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 0.007 rADEfg.GDP Mon-financial Pubtic Def./GDP 0.024 0.021 0.017 0.021 0.021 0.022 0.022 0.023 rAdCRg.GDP dCRg/GDP -0.019 -0.008 -0.004 -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.003 rAdSg.CDP dO97CDP 0.019 0.018 0.011 0.012 0.011 0.011 0.012 0.012 rdFg.GDP dFg/GDP 0.023 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 rADEFps.GDP Consolidated Pubtic Oef./GDP 0.051 0.041 0.034 0.037 0.037 0.037 0.036 0.035 rdH.GDP dH/GDP 0.041 0.048 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 0.044 rAdB&CRps.GD dB4CRps/GDP 0.020 0.018 -0.003 -0.007 -0.006 -0.003 0.004 0.010 rdfps.GDP dFps/GOP -0.011 -0.024 -0.008 -0.001 -0.001 -0.004 -0.012 -0.019 fALAHCE OF PAYEMITS As a share of GOP: rRB.GOP Resource Balance 0.025 0.002 -0.012 -0.013 -0.011 -0.008 -0.005 -0.003 rift4PR.GDP Interest Payments -0.030 -0.020 -0.015 -0.013 -0.011 -0.009 -0.007 -0.005 rift.GDP Met Transfers 0.026 0.034 0.026 0.025 0.024 0.023 0.022 0.021 rSf.GDP CAB 0.021 0.016 -0.001 0.000 0.003 0.007 0.010 0.014 rFt.GDP Total Debt/GDP 0.714 0.647 0.580 0.526 0.474 0.433 0.402 0.321 rflgc.GDP Public Debt/GDP 0.637 0.572 0.505 0.458 0.418 0.386 0.359 0.283 rfpgd.GDP Private Debt/GDP 0.077 0.075 0.076 0.067 0.056 0.046 0.043 0.038 riFt.Xt Total Interest/Exports 0.145 0.133 0.126 0.116 0.107 0.098 c 092 0.089 rlfg&c.Xt Public Interest/Exports 0.144 0.111 0.104 0.094 0.087 0.081 o.o0 0.074 rfp8d.Xt Private Interest/Exports 0.025 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.020 0.018 0.01S 0.015 0 RESC Stock of Reserves (US$3 3671.2 6128.9 6627.9 6674.5 6937.4 7764.9 9861.8 13276.5 IABLE 4: FISCAL ACCOUNIS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Codes GOVERIENT Fib Factor Income 3058.3 5194.6 9369.4 16921.0 30669.8 55016.7 98898.3 177832.9 P4tc Profits and Losses of CB 1285.6 2198.1 3978.3 7202.4 13077.0 23490.4 42271.8 76071.7 iFXbc Interest on FX deposits at CB 106.2 147.3 234.4 383.0 642.6 1078.3 1834.3 3157.8 Ofib Other Factor Income 1666.4 2849.2 5156.7 9335.6 16950.2 30440.0 54792.2 98603.4 Ti Indirect Taxes 11255.6 17630.0 31907.9 57766.1 104882.8 188402.7 339037.5 610127.4 Too Direct Taxes from SEEs 852.9 764.0 1395.6 2493.2 4515.6 8138.8 14705.7 26587.9 lDp Direct Taxes from PS 9725.0 13572.7 24554.1 44480.7 80770.5 145066.4 261002.5 469593.5 lfb Transfers oron Abroad 126.1 282.5 465.4 797.3 1383.6 2389.0 4135.3 7162.6 REVb Total Revenues 25017.9 37443.8 67692.4 122458.3 222222.4 399013.6 711779.2 1291304 Cb Consuiption 8814.7 18179.8 32491.5 59027.1 107575.2 193998.3 350508.8 633353.2 Tbo Transfers to SEEs 426.3 716.6 1296.9 2347.9 4263.0 7657.7 13780.4 24799.0 Ibp Transfers to PS 2888.9 4856.1 8788.8 15911.3 28889.4 51894.4 93385.9 168056.0 Sub Subsidies 2229.6 3747.8 6783.0 12280.0 22296.1 40050.8 72072.9 129701.5 Interest Payuents on: iCRb Central Bank Credit 1048.8 4B.8 891.0 1027.4 1785.2 3676.3 8221.2 18568.5 iBb Domestic Oonds 3346.7 3235.8 7898.6 17135.2 34941.6 67902.4 132352.2 256188.9 iBbd to Banking System 531.0 1354.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 to Private Sector 2815.7 1880.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 iFGba Foreign Bronds 1923.6 2728.7 4464.8 7472.4 12840.7 22063.6 38425.6 67715.6 ECURb Current Expenditures 20678.6 34313.6 62614.6 115201.4 212591.2 387243.7 708147.0 1298383 Sb Savings 4339.3 3130.2 5077.8 7256.9 9631.2 11770.0 9032.3 -7078.5 lb Investment 6365.8 8166.5 14545.9 26421.2 48132.1 86751.3 156637.7 282832.7 dFXbc FX Deposits at CB 183.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Eibo Capital Transfers to SEEs 666.2 1119.8 2026.7 3669.2 6662.0 11967.1 21535.2 38754.6 Klbd Capital Transfers to Banking System 168.7 283.6 513.2 929.2 1687.0 3030.4 5453.3 9813.7 Klbp Capital Transfers to Private Sector 516.7 868.5 1571.9 2845.8 5167.0 9281.6 16702.6 30057.8 ECAPb Capital Expenditure 7901.3 10438.5 18657.9 33865.5 61648.2 111030.4 200328.8 361458.7 DEFb Deficit 3562.0 7308.3 13580.0 26608.5 52017.0 99260.5 191296.6 368537.3 Financing: dCRb Central Bank -494.4 -134.1 298.9 1095.2 2914.1 6682.7 14878.0 31997.8 ci8b Domestic Borrowiing 3395.1 6230.9 11578.1 22686.0 44348.8 84627.8 163096.2 314208.6 cdbd from Banking System 1401.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dBbp from Private Sector 1991.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dfGb Foreign Borrowing 663.3 1211.5 1703.0 2827.4 4754.1 7950.0 13322.4 22330.9 .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .. .. ... . ... .. .. . .. . . . -- - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - Stocks of Debt: CRb Central Bank Credit 1567.6 1433.5 1732.4 2827.6 5741.7 12424.3 27302.3 59300.1 ttb Domestic Bonids 5389.2 11620 1 23198.2 45884.2 90232.9 174860.t 337956.9 652165.4 BWxI held by B8ok ing Sy.,tem 2256.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ttlr held by Pi Iv.,te Sectoz 3132.t 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lb FofeIgn Debt 54884.4 $4343.2 89S80.9 151082.7 25507.5 430843.8 /28190.0 1042163 IABLE 4 : FISCAL ACCOUIIS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 199f Shares of GDP: rREVb.GDP Revenues 0.249 0.218 0.218 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 0.217 rECtRb.GDP Cutrent Expeditures 0.206 0.200 0.201 0.204 0.208 0.211 0.214 0.218 rSb.GDP Savings 0.043 0.018 0.016 0.013 0.009 0.006 0.003 -0.001 rECAPb.GDP Capital Expenditures 0.079 0.061 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.060 0.061 0.061 rOEfb.GDP Budget Oeficit 0.035 0.043 0.044 0.047 0.051 0.054 0.058 0.062 rdCRb.GDP dCRb -0.00S -0.001 0.001 0.002 0.003 0.004 0.004 0.005 rdBb.GDP dBd 0.034 0.036 0.037 0.040 0.043 0.046 0.049 0.053 rdFGb.GDP dfb 0.007 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 Codes B. OHER PUBLIC SECIOR Fie Factor Incea 3416.6 6967.4 12727.9 22737.4 41181.4 74224.0 134112.9 242476.0 Tbo Cuwrent Tranfers from Budget 426.3 716.6 1296.9 2347.S 4263.0 7657.7 1378.4 24799.0 iFXoc Interest on FX Deposits at CO 12.9 29.3 46.7 ?6.3 128.0 214.9 365.5 629.2 REVo Revenues 3855.9 7713.3 14071.5 25161.6 45572.5 2096.6 148258.8 267904.2 lOo Direct Taxes 852.9 764.0 1395.6 2493.2 4515.6 8138.8 14705.7 26587.9 Interest Payments on: iCRo Central Bank Credit 254.9 365.4 491.8 468.7 670.4 1224.7 2514.7 5570.7 0 iao Domestic Boods 1069.2 1960.7 3914.5 7514.6 13979.9 25179.4 45965.4 83774.5 iRop to Private Sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 iBod to Banking System 1069.2 1960.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 iFGo Foreign Borrowing 509.9 581.9 1000.1 1787.1 3270.6 5971.5 11028.2 20570.7 ECURo Current Expenditures 2686.9 3672.0 6802.1 12263.6 22436.5 40514.4 74213.9 136503.5 So Savings 1168.9 4041.3 7269.4 12898.1 23136.0 41582.2 74044.9 131400.4 lo Investnet 4624.6 7698.6 13712.5 2490?.3 45374.1 81780.5 147662.4 266626.5 dfXoc FX Deposits at Central Bank 145.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Klop Capital Transfers to PS 482.3 810.7 1467.3 2656.4 4823.0 663.7 15590.6 28056.6 ECAPo Capital Expenditures 5252.0 8509.3 15179.7 27563.7 50197.2 90444.1 163253.0 294683.1 DEfo Oeficit 4083.1 4468.0 7910.3 14665.6 27061.2 48862.0 89208.1 163282.7 Financing: Kibo Capital Transfers from Budget 666.2 1119.8 2026.7 3669.2 6662.0 11967.1 21535.2 38754.6 dCRo Central Bank Credit 173.8 116.4 -0.9 271.5 850.8 1881.6 4390.6 9856.3 dBo Domestic Borrowcng 1543.7 2493.4 4414.5 8184.4 15102.1 27268.4 49784.4 91123.3 cBod from Banking System 1543.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dOop from Private Sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dFGo Foreign Borrowing 1699.4 738.3 1469.9 2540.4 4446.3 7718.9 13497.8 23548.6 ........ .. . . . . . . . . . . ............... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ........... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .... ............. .......................... ...... IABLE 4 : fISCAL ACCOUNIS 8ase Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Stocks of Debt: CRo Central Dsnk Credit 674.9 791.3 790.4 1061.9 1912.8 3800.3 8190.9 18047.2 Bo Domestic Bonds 3265.5 5758.9 10;73.5 18357.9 33460.0 60728.4 110512.8 201636.1 god beld by Banking System 3265.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bop held by Private Sector 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fo Foreign Debt 7466.6 12246.8 21617.0 38922.9 70007.6 125547.8 224933.3 340595.5 Shares of GOP: rREVo.GDP Revenues 0.038 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.045 rECURo.GDP Current Expenditures 0.027 0.021 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.022 0.023 rSo.GDP Savings 0.012 0.024 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.022 rECAPo.GDP Capitai Expenditures 0.052 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.049 0.050 rOEFo.GOP SEEs Deficit 0.041 0.026 0.025 0.026 0.026 0.027 0.027 0.027 rdCRo.GDP dCRb 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.002 rdIBo.GDP dBd 0.015 0.015 0.014 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 0.015 rdfGo.GDP dfb 0.017 0.004 0.005 0.005 0.004 0.004 0.004 0.004 TABLE 5 : KONEIARY ACCOUNIS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 A. CENTRAL BANK CURRENT ACCOUNT 1. Revenue: Interest Received from: iRESc foreign Reserves 348.2 493.0 1310.2 2315.1 3911.8 6822.5 12989.7 irRb Budget 1048.8 848.8 891.0 1027.4 1785.2 3676.3 8221.2 iCRo SEEs 254.9 365.4 491.8 468.7 670.4 1224.7 2514.7 iCRd Banking System -245.6 -459.1 -831.4 1172.2 8788.0 26548.3 64097.5 2. Expenditure: Interest Payments on FX Deposits: iFGc Foreign 1122.8 1111.4 1680.7 2334.2 3329.1 4748.4 6865.6 iFXbc Budget 106.2 147.3 234.4 383.0 642.6 1078.3 1834.3 ifXoc SEEs 12.9 29.3 46.7 76.3 128.0 214.9 365.5 iFXdc Banking System 274.3 321.0 511.0 835.0 1401.0 2350.9 3998.9 P4Lc Profit & Losses 1285.6 2198.1 3978.3 7202.4 13077.0 23490.4 42271.8 dcUc Change In Net Worth -1395.7 -2559.1 -4589.6 -5847.5 -3422.4 6389.0 32486.9 CAPITAL ACCOUNT: 1. Changes in Assets dARESc Foreign Reserves (Adjusted) 1257.8 5253.9 1674.0 254.9 2377.7 12309.1 51417.2 CCR1c Cross-Currency Revaluation -654.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dRVIc Revaluation Effect 2746.2 4914.5 10748.1 18942.2 32141.7 57669.0 115991.2 dRESc foreign Reserves 3349.2 10168.4 12422.1 19197.1 34519.4 69978.2 167408.3 . . . .... .... . ...--- - .... .................... ................... . .. . . . ..... ... ... ... Domestic Credit to: dCRb Budget -494.4 -134.1 298.9 1095.2 2914.1 6682.7 14878.0 dCRo SEEs 173.8 116.4 -0.9 271.5 850.8 1887.6 4390.6 dCRd Banking System -365.0 -489.7 3314.2 11942.6 27543.5 55405.2 91909.0 dCRt Total Domestic Credit -685.6 -507.5 3612.3 13309.3 31308.4 63975.5 111177.5 ............ ....................................- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -..........- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -.-. . 2. Change in Liabilities dCUt Currency in circulation 1474.3 4470.0 7190.8 12943.4 23298.0 41936.5 75485.6 dCUp Currency in Private Sector 1150.9 3388.9 5451.6 9812.9 17663.3 31793.9 57229.0 dCUd Vault Cash 323.4 1081.1 1739.1 3130.4 5634.8 10142.6 18256.6 dDdc Deposits of the Banking System 2692.1 3720.0 6641.2 11954,2 21517.6 38731.8 69717.2 do Base Honey 4166.4 8190.0 13832.0 24897.6 44815.7 80668.2 145202.8 .............................. ------------------------------------------...............---------------------........ .. ..... . ...... ............. .. dAFgc Foreign Debt (Adjusted) -2364.0 -884.6 -3956.1 -5485.9 -7707.2 -10772.7 -15095.0 dfxbc FX Deposits of Budget 183.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dfXoc FX Deposits of SEEs 145.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dfXdc FX Deposits of Banking System -163.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 CCR2c Cross-Currency Revaluation -847.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dRV2c Revaluation Effect 10362.7 10907.0 18039.4 27767.9 41637.7 62536.7 94958.5 dFc foreign Debt 1316.6 10022.4 14083.3 22282.0 33930.5 51764.0 79863.5 .............................. ............................................................ ...... ............................. ]ABLE s : OIEIARY ACCOUNTS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 d4Uc Net Worth -1395.7 -2559.1 -4589.6 -5847.5 -3422.4 6389.0 32486.9 dRVTc Total Revaluation Effects -7423.7 -5992.5 -7291.3 -8825.6 -9496.0 -4867.6 21032.7 dRCLc Not Other Li.bilitles -881Y.4 -8551.6 -11880.9 -14673.1 -12918.4 1521.4 53519.6 ................. ............. ....... ............ ......... ................. .......... .................. ...... .......... .. A. CENTIRAL UNK Stocks: 1. Assets: Domestic Credit to: CRb Budget 1567.6 1433.5 1732.4 2827.6 5741.7 12424.3 27302.3 CRo SEEs 674.9 791.3 790.4 1061.9 1912.8 3800.3 8190.9 CRd 0arkirs System -847.9 -1337.6 1976.6 13919.2 41462.7 96868.0 188776.9 CRt lotal Domestic Credit 1394.6 887.1 4499.4 17808.7 49117.2 113092.6 224270.2 .............................. ---------------------------------------------------------------. ....... ......... .... ..... 2. Liabilities: CUt Currency in Circutation 4518.4 8988.4 16179.2 29122.5 52420.6 94357.0 169842.7 CUp Currency in Private Sector 3425.6 6814.5 12266.2 22079.1 39742.4 71536.3 128765.3 CUd Vault Cash 1092.8 2173.9 3913.0 7043.4 12678.2 22820.8 41077.4 Ddc Deposits of Banking System 4581.6 8301.6 14942.8 26897.1 48414.7 87146.5 156863.7 Nt Base Money 9100.0 17290.0 31122.0 56019.6 100835.3 181503.5 326706.3 Fc foreign Debt 21743.8 31766.2 45849.5 68131.5 102062.0 153826.0 233689.5 NUC Net Uorth -6793.1 -9352.2 -13941.7 -19789.2 -23211.6 -16822.5 15664.4 RVIc Revaluation -15993.6 -21986.1 -29277.4 -38103.1 -47599.1 -52466.7 -31434.1 NOLc Net Other Liabilities -22786.7 -31338.3 -43219.1 -57892.3 -70810.6 -69289.3 -15769.7 MemorandL. Items: D RESc Foreign Reserves (USS i.) 36T1.2 612b.9 6627.9 6674.5 6937.4 7764.9 9861.8 iR Rate of Rediscount 0.509 0.541 0.622 0.593 0.631 0.640 0.662 iC Interest Rate on Domestic Bonds 0.621 0.600 0.680 0.739 0.762 0.753 0.757 iDD Interest Rate on Deposits 0.280 0.252 0.322 0.336 0.406 0.450 0.506 TABLE 5: ONEIARY ACCOULNtS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 19S3 1994 .... ........... ............................. ................................ D. BANKING SISTEN Codes CIRRENT ACCOUNT 1. Revenue: Returns from: i6bd Budget Bonds 531.0 1354.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 igod SEEs Bonds 1069.2 1960.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i6pd Private Bonds 3680.5 3218.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ifd Total Returns from Bonds 5280.7 6533.9 13649.1 29442.3 58166.3 105096.7 184413.1 iFXdc Interest from FX Deposits at CO 274.3 321.0 511.0 835.0 1401.0 2350.9 3998.9 2. Expenditure: Interest Paments to: ITpd Private Sector 2173.4 2387.4 5686.2 10527.7 22355.8 44101.2 88223.3 i0op Demand Deposits 1794.9 1983.0 5042.5 9476.0 20591.1 41140.1 83186.2 iFXpd FX Deposits 378.6 404.4 643.7 1051.? 1764.7 2961.1 5037.0 iCRd Central Bank -245.6 -459.1 -831.4 1172.2 8788.0 26548.3 6409?.5 iFGd Foreign Debt 579.0 796.5 1339.9 2442.2 3984.8 6208.3 9560.8 P&Ld ProfitUosses -1798.4 -1198.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -178.4 dSld Change in Net Uorth 5087.0 6320.8 10450.8 19168.1. 28515.6 36594.0 36198.6 1 . . . . . . . . . . . ........ ......-.-.--- - --............................ ............ ............ CAPITAL ACCOUINT 1. Chane in Assets dCUd Vault Cash 323.4 1081.1 1739.1 3130.4 5634.8 10142.6 18256.6 C!Ddc Deposits at CB 2692.1 3720.0 6641.2 11954.2 21517.6 38731.8 69717.2 dfXdc FK Deposits at Central Bank -163.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bonds: dBbd Budget 1401.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 d3od SEEs 1543.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 d8pd Private Sector -566.6 -5360.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dBd Total Bonds 2378.6 9198.0 19779.8 36522.1 63277.1 103985.2 164561.2 KITdp Capital Transfers to Private Sector 613.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2. Change in Liabilities dDOp Demand Deposits 1473.0 7789.5 12530.7 2ZS55.2 40599.3 73078.8 131541.9 dFXpd fX deposits of Private Sector -641.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dCkd Credit from Central Bank -365.0 -489.7 3314.2 11942.6 27543.5 55405.2 91909.0 KTbd Capital Transfers from Budget 168.7 283.6 513.2 929.2 1687.0 3030.4 5453.3 dAfGd Foreign borrowing (Adjusted) 1285.0 719.3 2429.2 -1054.0 -4399.2 -8889.7 -1032.7 CCRd Cross-Currency Revatuation -346.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dRVd Revaluation Effect 3078.6 3408.4 6554.6 10627.8 14052.2 15611.4 16779.4 dfd Foreign Borrowing 5389.4 7026.0 14681.8 20261.9 29062.1 41874.7 79647.8 .......... ................................ ..... ....... .... ..... ... ... .... ... . ... ...... ....... ..... ....... . idAd Net worth 5087.0 6320.8 10450.8 19168.1 28515.6 36594.0 36198.6 .JRVld Revaluation Account 2732.2 3408.4 6554.6 10627.8 14052.2 15611.4 16779.4 dlOt.d Net Other Liabilities 7819.2 9729.2 17005.4 29795.9 42567.8 52205.4 52978.0 TABLE 5 MONEIARY ACCOUTIS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Stocks: 1. Assets Cud Vault Cash 1092.8 2173.9 3913.0 7043.4 12678.2 22820.8 41077.4 Ddc Deposits at CB 4581.6 8301.6 14942.8 26897.1 48414.7 87146.5 156863.7 Bonds: 8bd Budget 2256.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sod SEEs 3265.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bpd Private Sector 5360.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8d Total Bords 10882.1 20080.1 39859.9 76382.0 139659.1 243642.4 408203.6 Kd Real Assets 724.0 724.0 724.0 724.0 724.0 724.0 724.0 2. Liabilities ODp Demand Deposits 7873.8 15663.3 28194.0 50749.2 91348.5 164427.3 295969.2 CRd Credit from Central Bank -847.9 -1337.6 1976.6 13919.2 41462.7 96868.0 188776.9 fd Foreign Borrowing 11890.0 18916.0 33597.8 53859.7 82921.9 124796.5 204444.4 Kbd Paid In Capital 245.2 528.8 1042.0 1971.2 3658.2 6688.6 12141.9 SNd Met Uorth 3420.4 9741.2 20192.0 39360.0 67875.6 104469.6 140668.2 RVld Revaluation 0.0 -3408.4 -9963.1 -20590.9 -34643.1 -50254.6 -67034.0 NOLd Met Others Liabilities 3420.4 6332.7 10228.9 18769.1 33232.4 54215.0 73634.2 Lu IABLE 6.a : BALANCE Of PAThEMIS (mit USS) Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 199i 1993 1994 1995 Codes ----------------------- --..---- ---- ---- --.....---- ---- -..- --. D Xt Exports 17398.0 18662.6 20459.8 22546.2 24609.9 27261.7 29912.9 32774.8 D INt Imports 15600.0 18493.9 21600.4 23838.1 26004.3 28203.2 30587.6 33172.0 DRB Resource BeaInce 1798.0 168.7 -1140.6 -1291.9 -1194.4 -941.5 -674.7 -397.2 D lft Total Interest Payments 2527.0 2487.3 2582.5 2612.1 2643.1 2681.3 2754.2 2911.8 D IfGb Budget 1358.0 1276.5 1330.9 1365.4 1419.6 1483.3 1567.1 1674.1 D ifGo SEEs 360.0 272.2 298.1 326.5 361.6 401.5 449.8 508.6 0 iFGp Private Sector 23.2 46.1 53.0 47.4 53.4 59.6 67.4 76.8 0 iFGd Domestic BS 408.8 372.6 399.4 446.3 440.5 417.4 389.9 403.9 o iFGc Central Bank Debt 792.7 519.9 501.0 426.5 368.0 319.2 280.0 248.4 D iRESc Central Bank Reserves () 245.8 230.6 390.6 423.0 432.5 458.7 529.8 702.2 D PR Profit Remittances -388.0 -461.6 -558.9 -651.3 -751.2 -861.6 987.6 -1131.3 D iFt4PR Factor Paynents O Tfb Foreign Transfers to Buduet 89.0 132.1 138.7 145.7 153.0 160.6 168.6 l77.1 D Tfp Foreign Transfers to PS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 D UR Workers Remittances 1755.0 2605.7 2300.0 2415.0 253S.8 2662.5 2795.7 2935.4 0 Tft Total Foreign Transfers 1844.0 2737.8 2438.7 2560.7 2688.7 2823.2 2964.3 3112.5 O Sf Foreign Savings -1503.0 -1294.9 130.0 43.4 -286.8 -803.5 -1373.7 -2005.4 O DIl Foreign Direct Investment 352.0 522.6 548.7 576.2 605.0 635.2 667.0 700.4 Capital Inflows : 0 dFGb Budget 468.3 566.7 507.7 516.6 52S.6 534.5 543.3 552.1 0 dFGo SEEs 1199.7 345.4 438.2 464.2 491.6 520.3 550.5 582.2 0 dFOp Private Sector -1052.2 97.5 -89.0 81.4 81.1 83.6 90.5 98.1 0 dFGd Domestic aS 907.2 336.5 724.1 -192.6 -486.3 -597.7 -42.1 517.3 0 dFGc Central Bank -1668.9 -413.8 -1179.3 -1002.4 -852.1 -724.3 -615.6 -523.3 O dft Total Capital Inflows -146.0 932.3 401.6 -132.7 -240.1 -183.6 526.6 1226.4 ,....... ............ .... .... . ..... ....... ... ... .. .. ............................................... dRESc Changes in Foreign leserves 888.0 2457.7 499.0 46.6 262.9 827.5 2096.9 3414.7 D dkESd Charges In 6S Reserves 821.0 292.1 321.3 353.4 388.8 427.7 470.4 517.5 IABLE 6.a : BALANCE OF PATNEMIS (oit USS) Ease Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Stocks of Debt: O ft Total get 39592.2 40524.6 40926.2 40793.5 40553.3 40369.8 40896.4 42122.7 O Fb Budget 19222.2 19788.9 20296.6 20813.2 21338.8 21813.3 22416.6 22968.7 O fGb Eaternal Debt 20318.7 20885.4 21393.1 21909.7 22435.3 22969.8 23513.1 24065.2 D fxbc FX Deposits at Co 1096.S 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 O Fo SEEs 4114.3 4459.6 4897.8 5362.3 5853.6 6313.9 6924.4 7506.5 O FGo External Debt 4332.7 4678.1 5116.3 5580.5 6072.1 6592.4 7142.8 7125.0 0 fXoc FX Deposits at CB 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.S 218.5 218.5 218.5 D fp Pr ivate Sector -2277.3 -2179.8 -2268.8 -2187.4 -2106.2 -2022.7 -1932.1 -l834.0 D fGp External Debt 733.7 831.2 742.2 823.6 904.8 988.3 1078.9 1177.0 D fXpd FX Deposits at OS 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 0 fc Central lank 11981.4 11561.6 1038.3 9385.8 8533.8 7809.5 7193.9 6670.6 D fGc External Debt 8276.0 7862.2 6682.8 5680.4 4828.3 4104.1 3488.5 2965.2 O FXbc FX Deposits of Budget 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 1096.5 D Fxoc FX Deposits of SEEs 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 218.5 D FXdc FX Oeposits of SS 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 D Fd Banking System 6551.7 6888.2 7612.3 7419.7 6933.4 6335.7 6293.6 6810.9 o FGd External Debt 5931.2 6267.7 6991.8 6799.2 6312.9 5715.2 5673.1 6190.3 O Fxpd FX Deposits of Private Sector 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 3011.0 D 5xdc FX Deposits at CB 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 2390.5 D RESc foreign Reserves of CB 3671.2 6128.9 6627.9 6674.5 6937.4 7764.9 9861.8 13276.5 D FNt 33000.0 31182.6 30763.9 30231.1 29339.3 27900.5 25859.8 23154.0 D RESd 2921.0 3213.1 3534.4 3887.9 4276.6 4704.3 5174.7 5692.2 fABLE 6.b BALANCE OF PATNENIS (bil. I.L.) ease Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 199s 1994 1995 Codes .................. .. .. - .-.-.. - . xt Exports 24644.1 39895.1 68634.3 123386.6 224414.1 405496.4 133473.6 1325692.1 lNt Irports 22097.2 39534.6 72460.5 130456.6 235217.6 419499.8 750017.6 1341756.t, Re Resource Balance 2546.8 360.6 -3826.2 -7070.1 -10803.6 -14003.4 -16544.0 -16064.4 iFt Total Interest Payents 3579.5 5317.1 8663.1 14295.1 23908.0 39881.5 67533.6 11777.9 iFGb Budget 1923.6 2728.7 4464.8 7472.4 12840.7 22063.6 38425.6 67715.6 iFGo SEEs 509.9 581.9 1000.1 1787.1 3270.6 5971.5 11028.2 20570.? iFCp Private Sector 32.8 98.5 117.1 259.2 482.7 889.8 2653.4 3107.1 iFGd Domestic GS 579.0 796.5 1339.9 2442.2 3984.8 6208.3 9560.8 16337.9 tFGc Centrat lank Debt 1122.8 1111.4 1680.7 2334.2 3329.1 4748.4 6865.6 10046.5 lRESc Central Bank Reserves (-) 348.2 493.0 1310.2 2315.1 3911.8 6822.5 12989.7 28401.Z PR Profit Remittnces -549.6 -986.7 -1875.0 -3564.3 -6795.0 -12816.3 -24216.5 -45758.8 iFt4PR Factor Payments -- - - - - - - - - - . .. -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - -- - - - - Foreign Tranters to Budget 126.1 282.5 465.4 797.3 1383.6 2389.0 4135.3 7162.6 Foreign Transfers to PS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Workers Remittences 2485.94 5570.15 7715.54 13216.33 22936.71 39603.13 68550.52 118734.36 Tft Total Foreign Transfers 2612.0 5852.6 81810o 14013.6 24320.4 41992.2 72685.8 125896.9 Sf Foreign Savings -2129.0 -2768.0 436.2 237.7 -2594.2 -11951.8 -33684.3 -81117.4 co DlI Foreign Direct Investment 498.6 1117.2 1840.8 3153.2 5472.4 9448.8 16355.2 28328.4 Capital Inflows dFGb Budget 663.3 1211.5 1703.0 2827.4 4754.1 7950.0 13322.4 22330.9 dfGo SEEs 1699.4 738.3 1469.9 2540.4 446.3 7738.9 13497.8 23548.6 dFGp Private Sector -1490.5 208.5 -298.7 445.7 m33.8 1243.2 2220.2 3968.1 dAFGd Domestic I5 1285.0 719.3 2429.2 -1054.0 -4399.2 -8M8.7 -1032.7 20922.7 dAFCc Central Bank -2364.0 -884.6 -3956.1 -5485.9 -7707.2 -10772.7 -15095.0 -21165.6 dFt Total Capital Inflows -206.8 193.0 1347.3 -726.4 -2172.2 -2730.3 1I912.O 49604.7 dtRESc Changes in foreign Reserves 1257.8 5253.9 1674.0 254.9 2377.7 12309.1 51417.2 138119.4 Stocks of Debt: ft Total Debt 71852.0 111286.4 180631.6 296118.8 485008.8 795173.4 1328494 19il242.8 fb Budget 34884.4 54343.2 89580.9 151082.? 255207.5 430843.8 728190.0 1042162.9 Fo SEEs 7466.6 12246.8 21617.0 38922.9 70007.6 125547.8 224933.3 340595. Fp Private Sector -4132.8 -5986.0 -10013.6 -15878.0 -25190.2 -39840.8 -62763.4 -83214.8 fc Central Bank 21743.8 31766.2 45849.5 68131.S 102062.0 153826.0 233689.S 302667.7 fd Banking System 11890.0 18916.0 33597.8 53859.7 82921.9 124796.S 204444.4 30903115 2ESc foreign Reserves of CO 6662.5 16830.9 29253.0 48450.1 82969.5 152947.6 320356.0 602399.0 TABLE 7 : NAIONAL ACCOUNTS Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 .. ... . .... ..... .... ..... ... ... .. ... ... . ...... ...... .......... ..... . . . . . . . . . . Codes 1. CURRENI PRICES OfIb Other factor Incowe Budget 1666.4 2849.2 5156.7 9335.6 16950.2 30448.0 54792.2 98603.4 flo SfEs Value Added 3416.6 6967.4 12727.9 22737.4 41181.4 74224.0 134112.9 242476.0 VAp Private Sector Vatue Added 86463.9 148256.9 268207.2 485868.5 882266.5 1584580.0 2850965.0 5129431.4 PR Profit Remittances -549.6 .986.7 -1875.0 -3 64.3 -6795.0 -12816.3 -21.216.5 -45758.8 1t Indirect laxes 11255.6 17630.0 31907.9 57766.1 104882.8 188402.7 339037.5 610127.4 Sub Subsidies (-) 2229.6 3747.8 6783.0 12280.0 22296.1 40050.8 72072.9 129701.5 GOP GOP 100573.0 171955.7 311216.6 563427.7 1022984.9 1837603.8 3306834.7 5950936.7 lit lotal lqports 22097.2 39534.6 72460.5 130456.6 235217.6 419499.8 750017.6 1341756.5 Xt lotal Exports 24644.1 39895.1 68634.3 123386.6 224414.1 405496.4 733473.6 1325692.1 RG Resource Gap -2546.8 -360.6 3826.2 7070.1 10803.6 14003.4 16544.C 16064.4 Cb Budget Consugytion 8814.7 1817S.8 32491.5 59027.1 107575.2 193998.3 350508.8 633355.2 Cp Private Consumption 65164.9 115943.8 212232.3 385116.3 700404.1 1259337.5 2267948.4 4084313.6 Ct Total Consumption 73979.6 134123.6 244723.7 444143.5 807979.2 1453335.8 2618457.3 4717666.8 tg Pubtic Investment 10990.4 15865.1 28258.4 51328.5 93506.2 165531.8 304300.1 549459.2 lb Budget Investment 6365.8 8166.5 14545.9 26421.2 48132.1 86751.3 156637.7 282832.7 lo SEEs Investment 4624.6 7698.6 13712.5 24907.3 45374.1 81780.5 147662.4 26S626.5 Ip Private Investment 13056.2 21606.4 42060.6 75025.7 132303.0 229739.6 400621.3 699875.2 It Total Investment 24046.6 37471.5 70319.0 126354.3 225809.2 398271.4 704921.3 1249334.4 Savings: Sf Foreign -2129.0 -2768.0 436.2 237.7 -2594.2 -11951.8 -33684.3 -81117.4 Sb Budget 4339.! 3130.2 5077.8 7256.9 9631.2 11770.0 9032.3 -7078.5 So SEEs 1168.9 4041.3 7269.4 12898.1 23136.0 41582.2 74044.9 131400.4 dNUc Central Bank -1395.7 -2559.1 -4589.6 -5847.5 -3422.4 6389.0 32486.9 84139.8 dMWd Banking System 5087.0 6320.8 10450.8 19168.1 28515.6 36594.0 36198.6 14220.3 Sp Private 16976.1 29306.3 51674.4 92641.0 .70543.1 313888.0 586843.0 1107769.8 TABLE 7 NATIONAL ACCOLJNTS Base Case Scenerio 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2. CONSTANT PRICES K OFib Other factor Encae Budget 1666.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 K Flo SEEs Value Added 3416.6 4122.7 4272.9 4456.2 4650.S 454.5 S067.5 5239.6 K VAp Private Sector Value Added 86463.9 7m6.0 90040.1 95222.6 99632.3 103637.4 10M4.2 II1890.7 k GoP GoP 100573.0 101746.9 104478.6 110422.9 115523.3 120186.1 124949.3 129619.6 K let Total lports 22097.2 24992.8 27800.9 29219.9 30357.2 31356.4 32386.0 33451.9 k Xt Total Exports 2464.1 23606.6 23041.3 24181.6 25342.6 26S21.0 2714.4 28920.0 K RG Resource Gap -25.8 1386.2 47S9.6 503.1 5014.7 403S.4 473.6 4531.9 K Cb Budget CnauuptIon 8814.7 10749.2 11091.4 11M.9 12380.8 12942.4 13520.0 14114.6 K Cp Private Consurption 65164.9 68554.5 72448.3 76843.S 8609.1 8401S.4 67480.7 91021.3 K Ct Total Consumption 73979.6 79303.8 635S9.7 08621.3 92989.9 96957.6 101000.7 105136.0 ..... .............. ...................... ... ... ... ... ............ ....................... .... ...... ............. ....................... ........... ..... K 1g Public Investment 10990.4 9546.4 9636.0 10430.0 10946.2 11428.5 11921.4 12427.6 K lb Budget Investment 6365.8 4914.0 5063.0 5366.8 5635.6 5882.8 6136.5 6397.2 K to SEEs Investment 4624.6 4632.4 4772.9 5061.2 5312.7 554S.7 5784.9 6030.6 K Ip Private Investment 13056.2 13001.1 1460.1 15245.3 15490.8 15579.1 15694.9 15030.0 K It Total Investment 24046.6 22547.s 24476.1 25675.2 26439.0 27007.6 27616.3 28257.8 - -- 0 TABLE 7 NATIONAL ACCWNIS Base Case Scenario 1966 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 3.ONEW NARKET n Noney Stock 12392.2 24651.8 44373.2 79671.7 143769.1 255764.3 465611.8 83861.3 Cut Currency In Circulation 4510.4 8968.4 16179.2 29122.5 S2420.6 94357.0 169642.7 305716.8 ODp D _and r,eposits 7813.0 15663.3 28194.0 50749.2 91348.S 164U7.3 295969.2 S32744.5 Demand Determinants: I pGDP Price Level 1.U6 2.263 3.695 6.S10 11.201 19.379 33.552 58.128 K COP Real Income 100573.0 101740.9 104478.8 110422.9 115523.3 120186.1 124949.3 129819.8 rCDP.M Velocity of Circulation 10.924 9.338 6.700 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 9.000 Supply Side: N Base moneV 9100.0 17290.0 31122.0 56019.6 100835.3 161503.5 326706.3 588071.4 Cut Currency Total 4518.4 8988.4 16179.2 29122.5 5 20.6 943s7.0 169842.7 305716.8 CUp Currency in Private Sector 3425.6 6814.5 12266.2 22079.1 9742.4 71536.3 128765.3 231M.S Cud Currency in Ranks 1092.8 2173.9 3913.0 7043.4 12678.2 22820.8 41077.4 73939.3 Odc Reserves 4581.6 8301.6 14942.6 26897.1 48414.7 87146.5 156863.7 282354.6 11.N Roney Multiptlier 1.362 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 1.426 rCut.D Currency/Deposits 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 0.574 rOdc.O Reserves/Deposits O.S82 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 0.530 MemoreA,,l Ites: ... .. ........ ...... .... ..... ... Exchange Rates: AER Nominal (Period Average) 1.416 2.138 3.355 5.473 9.045 14.874 24.520 40.448 EER Nominal (End of Period) 1.815 2.746 4.414 7.259 11.960 19.697 32.484 45.373 K AER Real (Period Average) 1.000 0.936 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 0.875 Interest Rates: iC Doestic 8ond 0.621 0.600 0.680 0.739 0.762 0.753 0.757 0.7S8 iD0 Demand Deposits 0.280 0.252 0.322 0.336 0.406 0.450 0.506 0.559 iR Rediscount Rate 0.509 0.541 0.622 0.593 0.631 0.640 0.662 0.680 D I Foreign Rate 7.58s 6.28x 6.37x 6.38s 6S4sx 6.61X 6.s2x 7.12X Prices (Period Averages): I pGP GOP Deflator (End-of-Period) 1.346 2.263 3.695 6.510 11.201 19.379 33.552 58.128 I pAGO GDP Deflator i.000 1.690 2.979 5.102 8.855 15.290 26.465 45.840 I pACp Private Consurption I pACb Public Consumption I pAlt Investment 1.000 1.662 2.873 4.921 8.541 14.747 25.526 44.212 I piNt Imports (End of Period TL) 1.310 2.082 3.513 6.066 10.495 18.149 31.427 46.091 Dl pil Iqports (End of Period *) 0.722 0.758 0.796 0.836 0.878 0.921 0.967 1.016 I pAIN loports (TL) 1.000 1.582 2.606 4.465 7.748 13.378 23.157 40.110 Dl pAl Imports (S) 0.706 0.740 0.777 0.816 0.857 0.899 0.944 0.992 I pAXt Exports (IL) 1.000 1.690 2.979 5.102 8.855 15.290 26.465 45.840 Dl pAX Exports (S) 0.706 0.791 0.888 0.932 0.979 1.028 1.079 1.133 IABLE 8 : PRIVATE SECTOR Base Case Scenario 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Codes ...----------------------------------------------- vAp Valued Added 86463.9 148256.9 268207.2 485868.5 882266.5 1584580 2850965 5129431.4 UR Uorkers Remittances 2485.94 55'0.tS 7715.54 13216.33 22936.75 39603.13 68550.52 118734.36 lfp Transfers from Abroad 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 lbp Transfers from Budget 2888.9 4856.1 8788.8 15911.3 28889.4 51894.4 93385.9 168056.0 Interest Received from: iBkp Budget Bonds 2815.7 1880.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i8op SEEs Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 C0. 0.0 iDDp Demand Deposits in Banking System 1794.9 1983.0 5042.5 9476.0 20591.1 41140.1 83186.2 165406.5 iFXpd Fx Deposits in Banking System 378.6 404.4 643.7 1051.7 1764.7 2961.1 5037.0 8671.4 P&Ld OS' Profits and Losses -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 -1798.4 lDp Direct Taxes 9725.0 13572.7 24554.1 44480.7 80770.5 145066.4 261002.5 469593.5 iFGp Interest Payments on External debt 32.8 98.5 177.7 259.2 482.7 889.8 1653.4 3107.1 i8pd Interest Payments to OS 3680.5 3218.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 PR Profits to OFi -549.6 -986.7 -1875.0 -3564.3 -6795.0 -12816.3 -24216.5 -45758.8 Yd Disposabte Incom 82140.9 145250.1 263906.6 477751.3 870947.1 1573225 2854791 5192083.4 Cp Consumption 65164.9 115943.8 212232.3 385116.3 700404.1 1259337 2267948 4084313.6 Sp Savings 16976.1 29306.3 51674.4 92641.0 170543.1 313888.0 586843.0 1107769.8 dFGp Foreign Borrowing -1490.5 208.5 -298.7 445.7 733.8 1243.2 2220.2 3968.1 Dfl Foreign Investment 498.6 1117.2 1840.8 3153.2 5472.4 9448.8 16355.2 28328.4 d8pd Credit from Banking System -566.6 -5360.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Kiop Capital Transfers from SEEs 482.3 810.7 1467.3 2656.4 4823.0 8663.7 15590.6 28056.6 Klbp Capital Transfers from Budget 516.7 868.5 1571.9 2845.8 5167.0 9281.6 16702.6 30057.8 Kidp Capital Transfers from Banking System 613.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dSp Domestic Lending 2558.2 -473.6 -3787.2 -5651.7 -3826.3 7912.9 48319.4 158517.9 dBbp to Budget 1991.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 dOop to SEEs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Change in Money Holdings: dCUp Currency in Circulation 1150.9 3388.9 5451.6 9812.9 17663.3 31793.9 57229.0 103012.2 dDOp Demand Deposits 1473.0 7789.5 12530.7 22555.2 40599.3 73078.8 131541.9 236775.3 dFXpd FX Deposits at 8S -641.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ip Private Investment 13056.2 2160O.4 42060.6 75025.7 132303.0 229739.6 400621.3 699875.2 Memo: iBp Total Interest Payments -864.8 -1337.4 -1836.0 -4792.5 -9244.8 -12015.0 *6095.5 30523.8 Bp Stock of Domestic Bonds -2227.4 -2701.0 -6488.3 -12139.9 -15966.2 -8053.3 40266.1 198784.0 TABLE 9: PIPEINE DATA 1988 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1.304: 0Vp Gross Disburoments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APlp Amwtization Paynts 3.50 3.62 3.66 4.35 S.02 S.32 5.32 DIlDe et 0isburwsents -3.50 -3.62 -3.66 -4.35 -S.02 -S.32 -5.32 Dle Existing Debt 166.19 162.69 159.06 15S.41 1S1.06 14.04 140.72 135.40 Ric interest late 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7n 0.7X 0.71 0.7X IP1e Interest Payents 1.24 1.21 1.19 1.16 1.12 1.06 1.05 2. OIIER NITILAIERAL COUCESSIOAL: C02e Gross Disbswsemnts 37.72 47.18 17.68 10.64 6.07 0.99 0.65 APe Amortization Payents 42.71 51.58 29.70 34.3S 32.66 54.38 72.48 1102e let Disbursements -4.99 -4.40 -12.02 -23.71 -26.S9 -53.39 -71.63 D2e Existing Debt 1064.1J 1059.12 1054.71 1042.70 1OI.99 992.40 939.01 867.17 Rze Interest late 3.80 4.1 4.1S 4.11 4.2X 4.2Z 4.3X IP2e Interest Payments 40.78 43.82 43.47 43.14 42.63 41.40 40.76 3. low1: A) Concessional C03Ce Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Ce Amortization Payments 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.97 1.04 ND3Ce Met Disburse.nts -0.70 -0.75 -0.80 -0.86 -0.91 -0.97 -1.04 O3Ce Existing Debt 49.98 4928 48.53 47.73 46.88 45.97 45.01 43.97 RMCe Interest Rate 4.9S 4.81 4.81 4.81 4.8X 4.71 4.71 IP3Ce Interest Payments 2.44 2.39 2.34 2.29 2.23 2.17 2.11 9) Nonconcessional a CC31e Gross Disbursements 657.86 510.52 401.25 323.94 259.77 194.68 1211.35 AP31e Aotization Paymnts 473.26 584.45 664.35 719.41 736.28 763.39 730.17 lD3te let Disbursements 164.60 -73.93 -263.09 -395.47 -476.51 -568.71 -602.42 D3Ne Existing Debt 6079.76 6244.36 6170.43 5907.34 5511.87 5035.36 4466.65 3864.23 R31e Interest Rate 8.71 8.6X 8.5I 8.41 6.31 8.3X 8.21 IP3ie Interest Payments 528.91 538.73 525.61 497.81 459.77 415.84 365.88 C) lotal GD3e Gross Disbursements 637.86 510.52 401.25 323.94 259.71 194.68 128.35 APSe Amortization Payments 473.96 585.20 665.15 720.26 737.18 764.35 731.80 IlD3e let Disbwrsements 163.90 -74.68 -263.89 -396.33 -477.41 -569.68 -603.45 D3e Existing Debt 6129 74 6293.64 6218.96 5955.07 5558.74 5061.33 4511.65 3906.20 R3e Interest Rate 6.7X 8.61 8.51 8.41 8.31 8.2X 8.21 IPWU Interest Payments 531.35 541.12 527.95 500.10 462.00 418.01 367.99 TABLE 9: PIPEIINE DATA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ,. .. ... ........ .. -- -- -- -- -- - --- -- --- -- --- -- --- -- --- -- --- -- -- 4. OTHER MMTILATERAL NONCOICESSIONAL: GD4e Gross Disbursements 33.59 45.31 35.43 19.13 11.68 7.74 5.86 AP4e Amortization Payments 113.26 208.21 190.47 213.95 249.05 315.24 166.16 D4e Net Disbursements -79.67 -162.90 -155.04 -254.82 -237.37 -307.50 -160.30 D4e Existing Debt 1432.87 1353.20 1190.29 1035.26 780.44 543.07 235.57 75.27 R4e Interest Rate 7.3X 7.4X 7.7X 7.4X 7.61 7.7X 10.3X IP4e Interest Payments 103.91 100.20 91.11 76.72 59.40 42.05 24.21 5. BILATERAL COUCESSIOIAL: GDSe Gross Disbursements 367.54 386.55 251.03 104.69 47.81 20.24 8.73 APSe Amortization Payments 352.70 367.12 390.59 414.58 384.58 408.40 421.86 NDSe let Disbursements 14.84 19.44 -139.56 -309.88 -336.77 -388.17 -413.13 OSe Existing Debt 5411.91 5426.75 5446.19 5306.63 4996.75 4659.97 4271.81 3858.68 R5e Interest Rate 3.21 3.3X 3.4X 3.4X 3.4X 3.5X 3.5X IPSe Interest Payments 173.31 180.46 183.17 178.99 171.62 163.67 151.32 6. BILATERAL OICONCESSIONAL: GD6e Gross Disbursements 340.87 323.36 157.91 65.56 23.53 2.40 0.00 AP6e Amortization Payments 876.41 810.82 551.26 390.50 297.62 239.72 221.59 ND6e let Disbursements -535.54 -487.46 -393.35 -324.94 -274.09 -237.32 -221.59 1 06e Existing Debt 3103.10 2567.56 2080.10 1686.75 1361.80 1057.71 850.39 628.80 _ R6e Interest Rate 8.0X 8.5X 8.3X 8.3X 8.21 8.21 8.41 41 MP6e Interest Payments 247.61 217.28 173.63 139.71 111.85 09.22 71.02 7. PRIVATE BONDS: SD7e Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7e Amortization Payments 0.90 1.04 1.10 1.15 1.21 1.26 1.44 WD7e Net Disbursements -0.90 -1.04 -1.10 -1.15 -1.21 -1.26 -1.44 D7e Existing Debt 15.94 15.05 14.01 12.91 11.75 10.55 9.29 7.85 aRe Interest Rate 4.1X 4.6X 4.61 4.61 4.62 4.61 5.01 IP7e Interest Payments 0.66 0.69 0.65 0.60 0.54 0.49 0.47 8. PRIVATE COIIERCIAL BANKS: GDe8 Gross Disbursements 932.38 407.74 291.97 181.59 122.07 32.19 0.00 APSe Amortization Paryents 5146.04 1160.42 1303.74 1335.12 1123.46 na.09 1154.02 NDU8 let Disbursements -4213.66 -752.68 -1011.77 -1153.53 -1001.38 -745.90 -1154.02 DCe Existing Debt 11341.30 7127.64 6374.95 5363.18 4209.66 3208.28 2462.38 1308.36 18e Interest Rate 8.0X 8.51 8.22 8.01 8.0o 8.11 8.12 IPSO Interest Payments 906.79 604.79 522.92 429.93 336.44 260.25 200.31 TABIE 9: PIPELINE DATA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 9. OHIIER PRIVATE: 09e Gross Disbursements 452.45 208.27 138.22 137.00 61.16 3.18 0.00 AP9e Awortization Payments 443.63 497.92 452.30 414.47 351.71 316.44 403.64 ND9e Net Disbursements 8.82 -289.65 -314.08 -277.48 -290.55 -313.26 -403.64 w9e Existing Debt 2389.20 2398.01 2108.37 1794.28 1516.81 1226.26 913.01 509.37 R9 Interest Rate 8.8X 8.1X 7.85 7.6S 7.3X 7.1S 6.7X IP9e Interest Payments 210.41 193.21 163.47 135.88 110.72 87.40 61.11 10. PRIVATE NON-GUARAUTEED GDPRe Cross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Q.00 0.00 APPRe Amortization Payments 94.50 73.00 99.28 94.36 102.28 71.57 0.00 NDPRe Net Disbursemnts -94.50 -73.00 -99.28 -94.36 -102.28 -71.57 0.00 DPRe Existing Debt 535.00 440.50 367.50 268.22 173.85 71.58 0.01 0.01 Me Interest Rate 9.9S 14.3X 10.82 11.02 11.92 18.02 0.0S IPRe Interest Payents 53.04 63.03 39.84 29.S3 20.70 12.88 0.00 11. IMF PURCHASES: GDINFe Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APINFe Amortization Paynents 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DINWe Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DINFe Existing Debt 298.79 298.79 298.79 298.79 298.79 298.79 298.79 29.79 RINFe Interest Rate 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0o 0.02 0.02 0.02 IPINFe Interest Paynents 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12. NET SHORT TERM CAPITAL: G0STe Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APSTe Aortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSTle Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DSle Existing Debt 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 7704.00 RSTe Interest Rate 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 IPSTe Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1*811 10: ASSUMPT IONS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1991. 1995 OMS YEAR; 1988 CLOSURE: RE A) COUDIIIOIiS OF NIEW DEST: 1. IDA: Ni Nativity 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.003 GI Grace Period 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 gin Interest Rate 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12y 0.12 0.71 0.12 TI Time Profile of Wiln 252 25% 252 2S2 02 02 02 2. GTHEE MULTILATERAL COUCESSIOUAL: 112 maturity 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 31.00 62 Grace Period 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 *2n Interest Rate 1.1.02 1.1.02 1.1.02 1.10.0 1.1.02 1.1.02 1.1.02 12 lime Profile of GWZn 22 92 112 222 192 132 102 3. IURD: A) Noncomcessional Mediun and Slow Disb. loans 131S Maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 GiNS Grace Period 4..00 4.00 1..00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 ailsa Interest Rate 7.12 7.71 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.72 Ti11S Time Profile of GD3NSn 12 192 212 112 132 12 42 last Dilxseurent N3NF maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 G311l Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 RuI1n Interest Rate 7.12 7.12 7.712 7.12 7.12 7.12 7.12 1311F Time Profile of G03NFn 332 332 332 ox 02 02 02 Concessionai NuC maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 G3C Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 W3n Interest Rate 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.72 0.12 isc lime Profile of GD3Cn 51.2 102 112 92 12 32 22 TABLE 10: ASSUMPTIONS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 BASE YEAR: 1988 CLOSURE: RE 4. OTHER W11ILATERAL MOSCONCESSIONAL M4 maturity 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 C4 Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 R4n Interest Rate 7.8X 7.8X 7.8X 7.80 7.8X 7.8X 7.8X ...... ........ .. ..................................... ..... ........ . .......... .................. ..... ....... ... ... ... . ....... .... ... . 14 Time Profile of GD4n 10 12X 16X 18X 16X 12X 9X 5. BILATERAL COSCESSIONAL: "5 Maturity 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 C5 Grace Period 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 RSn Interest Rate 3.4K 3.4K 3.4X 3.4X 3.4X 3.4K 3.4X ... .... ........ .............. ........... .... ..... .. .. ..................... ......................................... ............... .......... TS Time Profile of CDSn 18X 33K 23X 25X B% 2X 1K 6. O1LATERAL WWOCOSCESSIONAL: 16 maturity 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 G6 Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 R6n Interest Rate 9.9X 9.9X 9.9X 9.9X 9.9X 9.9X 9.9X .... .... . ........ ............... ............................. ...... ....... ............... ............................................................. .. ... ... 16 Time Profile of 606n 13X 30K 25K 15X 8X 5 4X 7. PRIVATE BONDS: N7 Maturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 G7 Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R7n Interest Rate 9.6K 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6K 9.6X . . .... ... .. ...... .......... ....................... ............................................. . . ................. 17 Time Profile of CD7n lOOK OX OX OK OX OX OX .... ......... ................ ............................... .. . ....... ......... ............. ......................... . S. PRIVATE CONIERCIAL BANKS: me8 aturity 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 G8 Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 ROn Interest Rate 9.6K 9.6X 9.6X 9.6K 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X . . . . ................................. ..... ....... .......... .................... ..... ........ ..................... la Tiee Profile of GDan 43X 25X 13X 9X 8S 2X OX .. ..... ....... ....... ............ . ..... ... ........... .................. .... ..... ........ .............. .. .... ... ............. ........................... TABLE 10: ASSUMPIIOWS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 BASE TEAR: 1988 CLOSURE: RE 9. PRIVATE OTHER: tl9 Maturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 G9 Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R9n Interest Rate 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 9.6X 19 Time Profile of GD9n 100l OX OX 0O 0 OX OX 10. PRIVATE N-GUARAITEED MPR Maturity 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 GPR Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 RPRn Interest Rate 10.1S 10.1 10.1 10.1 10.11 10.11 10.1X TPR Time Profile of GDPRn 1001 01 01 01 0 0 0 11. IMF PURCHASES: MIMF Maturity 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 GIIF Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RIFn Interest Rate 8.71 8.71 8.7X 8.7X 8.7X 8.7X 8.7X I TIHF Time Profile of GDIMFn 501 501 01 01 01 O X O O 12. IEI SHORT TERM CAPIIAL: HST :raturity 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 GST Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RSTn Interest Rate 9.61 9.61 9.61 9.61 9.61 9.61 9.61 IST lime Profile of GOSln 1001 01 01 0 0 01 0 B) AVAILABILITIES CASE: New Comitments: A Cl IDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C2 Other Mutt. Conc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C3 I1RD 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A& C3C Concessional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C311 Nonconcessional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C3NF fast Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C3YS Slow Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TABLE 10: ASIMPFIOSIs 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 .. ................ ............................... ............ ...................... ........................................ ...... ........ BASE YEAR: 1988 CtOSURE: RE A C4 Other Mutt. honc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A CS Bilaterai Conc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C6 Bilateral Nonconc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A C? Private Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A CS Comercial Banks 10000.00 4000.00 6000.00 8000.00 8000.00 9000.00 8000.00 A C9 Other Private 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 A CPR Private Mon-guaranteed 2000.00 500.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 A CINF llf Purchases 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A CST Met Short Term Capital 2000.00 2500.00 2000.00 4000.00 4000.00 5000.00 1000.00 New Disbursements: A COIn IDA 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A G02n Other Mult. Conc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GD3n 1BRD -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 A GD3Cn Concessional 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A G031n Nonconcessional -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 A GD3Wfn Fast Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GD3USn Slow Disbursement -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 -0.40 A GD4n Other Mutt. Nonc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GDSn Bilateral Conc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GD6n Bilateral Nonconc. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GDCn Private Bonds 1441.37 447.91 731.57 944.06 1064.54 1184.17 -3433.61 A GD8n Commercial Banks 15443.30 2225.13 4464.48 5434.81 12222.84 8462.46 -41397.25 A GD9n Other Private 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GDPRn Private Non-guaranteed 1029.55 148.34 297.63 362.32 541.90 530.29 -K849.57 A GDINFn IMf Purchases 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A GDSIn Net Short Term Capital 2676.84 3062.53 3836.37 4778.40 5651.99 6418.24 -1757.92 C) REQrUIREMENTS CASE: Share of n-Creditor in New Debt: BETAI IDA 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 BE1A2 Other Mutt. Conc. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 BETA3 IBRD 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0D 0.0 0.02 0.0 BETA3C Concessional 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BETA3h Nonconcessional 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 9ETA3hF fast Disbursement 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BETA3NS Slow Disbursement 0.02 0.0 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BETA4 Other Mult. Monm. 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BEIAS Bilateral Conc. 0.0 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BEIA6 Bilateral Nonconc. 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 BETA? Private Bonds 7.0X 7.02 7.0X 7.02 7.02 7.02 7.02 IACLE 10: ASSuIPIIONS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 BASE YEAR: 1988 CLOSURE: RE D} COHMa ASSU"WTIONS ON DEBT-RESTRUCTURING: TEAR Of RESTRUCTURING: Exit Bonds: Reb Interest Rate 2.5X 2.52 2.52 2.5X 2.5X 2.5X 2.31 ASeb Amortization Schedule Equity: A.OEB Additionslity 0.02 0.0X 0.0X 0.0X 0.0 0.0X 0.0X Rk Rate of Return 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 A.dNbb I of Debt-Equity Staps 50X 50X 502 502 50e 502 502 financed by Noney Creation S. 0v TABLE 11: TOTAL CREDIlORS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISIING DEBI: ................. Goe Gross Disbursements 2802.41 1928.94 1293.49 842.55 532.09 261.41 143.59 APe Amortization Payments 7547.60 3758.93 3687.25 3683.09 3284.76 2954.71 3178.31 IDe Met Disbursements -4745.19 -1829.99 -2393.76 -2840.54 -2752.67 -2693.37 -3034.72 De Stock of Debt 34846.94 33016.95 30623.19 27782.64 25029.97 22336.60 19301.88 Re Interest Rate (lepticit) 5.73% 5.58% 5.29% 5.01% 4.74% 4.46% 4.11% IPe Interest Payments 2269.09 1945.81 1747.38 1535.73 1317.02 1116.45 918.24 S. RESIRUCUWRED DEBT: .. .. ...... ....... .. GOr Gross Disbursements 2802.41 1928.94 1293.49 842.55 532.09 261.41 143.59 APr Amortization Payments 7547.60 3758.93 3687.25 3683.09 3284.76 2954.77 3178.31 NDr Met Disbursements -4745.19 -1829.99 -2393.76 -2840.54 -2752.67 -2693.37 -3034.72 Dr Stock of Debt 34846.94 33016.95 30623.19 27782.64 25029.97 22336.60 19301.88 Deb Of which: Exit bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rr Interest Rate (Ipt Icit) 5.73% 5.58% 5.29X 5.01% 4.74% 4.46% 4.11% IPr Interest Payments 2269.09 1945.81 1747.38 1535.73 1317.02 1116.45 916.24 C. NEU DEBT: GDn Gross Disbursements 20591.07 5883.91 9330.05 11519.59 19481.27 16595.17 -49438.36 APn Amortization Payments 0.00 2917.07 3377.41 4273.18 12761.40 10700.89 13455.22 NOn Net Pisbursements 20591.07 2966.84 5952.64 7246.41 6719.87 5894.28 -62893.58 Dn Stock of Debt 20591.07 23557.91 29510.55 36756.96 43476.83 49371.11 -1352Z.48 Rn Interest Rate (Implicit) 9.67% 9.67% 9.67% 9.67% 9.67% 9.67% 9.67% IPn Interest Payments 0.00 1990.13 2276.87 2852.19 3552.56 4202.04 4771.72 0. IOIAL DEBI: CDt Gross Disbursements 23393.48 7812.84 10623.54 12362.14 2001j..__ 16856.58 -49294.77 APt Amortization Payments 7547.60 6676.00 7064 66 7956.27 16046.16 13655.67 16633.53 NDt Met Disbursements 15845 88 1136.84 3558.88 4405.87 3967.20 3200.91 -65928.30 Ot Stock of Debt 55438.01 56574.85 60133.73 64539.60 68506.80 71707.71 5779.41 Deb Of which: Exit bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rt interest Rate (Iqfticit) 5.73% 7.10% 7.11% 7.30% 7.55% 7.76% 7.93% IPt Interest Payments 2269.09 3935.94 4024.25 4387.92 4869.58 5318.49 5689.95 E. EFfECTS Of DEBI-RESTRUClURING: ,.......... .. ................... A) On Debt: CD1 Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APf Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MDf Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Of Change in Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Deb Of which: Exit bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rf Interest Rate (implicit) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% IPf Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IABLE It: IOIAL CREDITORS 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0) On Reserves: dRES Change in Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) On Foreign Investment: dPR Incre2sed foreign Profits 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dFI Increase in OFI 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0) On Ioney Creation Increase in Sase Haney to dNlb finance Debt-Equity Stups 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.00 0.00 0.00 l IASLE 12: IDA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. PIPKLI0E DEBT: .. .... .......... GDlp Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APIp Amortization Payments 3.50 3.62 3.66 4.35 5.02 5.32 5.32 Dilp Net Disbursements -3.50 -3.62 -3.66 -4.35 -5.02 -5.32 -5.32 Dlp Existing Debt 166.19 162.69 159.08 155.41 151.06 146.04 140.72 135.40 Rlp Interest late 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.71 0.n1 0.7X 0.7X IPip Interest Payments 1.24 1.21 1.19 1.16 1.12 1.00 1.05 S. DEST RESTRUCTURING INSTRUtENIS: 1. RESC0EDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheb.aling Change in the Contractual Stream of: PRIAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PR1IP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9) Refinancing Reduction in: RF1AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 O.OC 0.00 RIlIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dGDlrs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rlrs Interest Rate 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0X Nlrs maturity 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 GCrs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: dGDlrs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 . 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dAPIrs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dIPirs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTAI Discount Rate 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Pei Debt sought fBack 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ef.Cae1 Externally financed (%1) 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 O.O1 UR.CB81 Use of Reserves (1) 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.0 100.01 100.01 E8.C881 Exit Bonds (1) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0O Reb Interest Rate 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.5X Neb Maturity 10 .0 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.C8B1 Debt-Equity Swaps IX) 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 O.OX A.DE8B Additionality of DFI 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 Rk Profit Rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 TABLE 12: IDA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0) Financing: Co1a Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Ef881 Externally financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UR881 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBBl Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEB8I Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: dAPlbb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APleb Of ihich: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dlPlbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPleb Of ihich: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 cDlbb Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ESB81 Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUUJtAIION Of ARREARS: A) Arrears on: ARlAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ARIIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dGDlar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rlar Interest rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Niar Maturity 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 10.00 Glar Grace Period 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .00 C) Effects on: dGDlar Cross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dAPlar Amortization Paypents 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dIPlar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. URIITE-OFFS: IOFfI A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8) Effects on: dAPiwof Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dlPiwof Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 dDlwoff Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. EXISTING DEBT: .... .... ...... COle Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APle Amortization Payments 3.50 3.62 3.66 4.35 5.02 5.32 5.32 NdOle Net Disbursements -3.50 -3.62 -3.66 *4.35 -5.02 -5.32 -5.32 Dte Restructured Debt 166.19 162.69 159.08 155.41 151.06 146.04 1(0.72 135.40 Dleb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.OC 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: Rlp On vvi-Restructured Debt 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% Rlie Implicit 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% iPle Interest Payments 1.24 1.21 1.19 1.16 1.12 1.08 1.05 TABLE 12: IDA 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 i995 ... ... .. ... .. ... ... . ............ .................... ..... ..... . ..... ..... 0. NEW DEBT: . .............. . Ni Matuwrity 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 30.00 CI Grace Period 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 T1 Ti e Profile of Coin 25X 25X 25X 25X Om mX ox ......... ............... ...... ............... I............ ....................... ----------------------------------................................ .... ... .......... .............. Ci Coamitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CDln Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APin Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MDOn Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Dln Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Rln Interest Rate 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X 0.7X WIn Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 E. TOTAL DEBT: ......... ........ GDlt Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APit Amortization Payments 0.00 3.50 3.62 3.66 4.35 5.02 5.32 5.32 NDlt Net Disbursements 0.00 -3.50 -3.62 -3.66 -4.35 -5.02 -5.32 -5.32 Olt Stock of Debt 166.19 162.69 159.08 155.41 151.06 146.04 140.72 135.40 Rlt Interest Rste 0.75X 0.74X 0.74 0. 75X 0.74X 0.74X 0.i4X IPlt Interest eayments 1.24 1.21 1.19 1.16 1.12 1.08 1.05 O Ln TABLE 13: OIHER MULTILAIERAL CONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 A. EXISTING DEBI: ........... CD2e Gross Disbursements 37.72 47.18 17.68 10.64 6.07 0.99 0.65 0.25 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP2e Amortization Payments 42.71 51.58 29.70 34.35 32.66 54.38 72.48 206.44 169.35 156.B5 182.38 183.10 WZe Met Disbursements -4.99 -4.40 -12.02 -23.71 -26.59 -53.39 -71.83 -206.19 -169.25 *156.85 -182.38 -183.10 D2e Existing Debt 1064.10 1059.12 1054.71 1042.70 1018.99 992.40 939.01 867.17 660.98 491.73 334.88 152.50 -30.60 R2e Interest Rate 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6X 5.6% 12.4% IP2e Interest Payme.,ts 40.78 43.82 43.47 43.14 42.63 41.40 40.76 35.55 26.72 17.93 18.86 18.90 B. DEBT RESIRUCIURING INSTRUMENIS: .... ........ ........................ 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS2AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS21P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Peduction in: RFZAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF21P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD2rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4 R2rs Interest Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0% 0.0% U2rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G2rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD2rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP2rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPMrs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA2 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% B82 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB2 Externally Financed (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBB2 U.se of Reserves (lO 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0% EB.CB82 Exit Bonds (2) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Ieb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB2 Debt-Equity Swaps (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0S 0.0% 0.0% A.DE8B AdditionalcCy of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% rK Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 13: OlhER NUtILAJERAL COUCESSIONA* 1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1199 1996 1999 2000 ............................. ............................................................ . ......................................................................- 0) finaneing: CU2 Cost of Suyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 (f1U12 Entxrnally Finwiced 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1U112 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 E6w2 Exit lands 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEUS2 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o.oo 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP2bb Amrtization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APZeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPZbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP2eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUOMLATIU Of AMEAIS: A) Arrears on: AR2AP Anortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR21P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CD2ar R) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P2ar Interest rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 WZar Maturity 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.60 38.00 38.00 C2ar Grace Period 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 C) Effects on: GClar Gross Disbuwsements P2ar Amortilation Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP2ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRIIE-DfFfS: UOFF2 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0) Effects on: AP2woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP2woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBI: GD2r Gross Disbursements 37.72 47.18 17.68 10.64 6.07 0.99 0.65 0.25 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP2r Amortization Payments 42.71 51.58 29.70 34.35 32.66 54.38 72.48 206.44 169.35 156.85 182.38 183.10 ND2r met Disbursements -4.99 -4.40 -12.02 -23.71 -26.59 -53.39 *71.83 -20o.19 -169.25 -156.85 -182.38 -183.10 02r Restructured Debt 1064.10 1059.12 1054.71 1042.70 1018.99 992.40 939.01 867.17 660.98 491.73 334.88 152.50 -30.60 D2eb 01 which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate R2e On Won-Restructured Debt 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3S 4.1% 4.0% 3.6X 5.6X 12.4X R2r IniciCIt 3.8% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0X 3.6X 5.6X 12.4% IP2. Interest Payments 40.78 43.82 43.47 43.14 42.63 41.40 40.76 35.55 26.72 17.93 18.86 18.90 TABtE 13: OTHER MULIILATERAL CONCESSIONAt 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 . ..... ...... ........... ... ... .............. ........................... ... . ... ......... .............. ............................ 0. NEW DEBT: It2 Maturity 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.00 38.D^ 38.00 G2 Grace Period 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 ............................................................................................................................................................................ 12 lime Profile of GD2n 2% 9% 17% 22% 19% 13% 10% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% ~~~~~~~~~~ .......................................... ................................................................................................................................ ... ..................................... ..... C2 Coantitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 G02n Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP2n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 MD2n Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 02n Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R2n Interest Rate 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% 1.40% IP2n Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 E. TOTAL DEBt: ............. GC2t Gross Disbursements 0.00 37.72 47.18 17.68 10.64 6.07 0.99 0.65 0.25 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP2t Amortization Payments 0.00 42.71 51.58 29.70 34.35 32.66 54.38 72.48 206.44 169.35 156.85 182.38 183.10 ND2t Met Disbursements -4.99 -4.40 -12.02 -23.71 -26.59 -53.39 -71.83 -206.19 -169.25 -156.85 -182.38 *183.10 1 D2t Stock of Debt 1064.10 1059.12 1054.71 1042.70 1018.99 992.40 939.01 867.17 660.98 491.73 334.88 152.50 -30.60 R2t Interest Rate 3.83% 4.14% 4.12% 4.14% 4.18% 4.17% 4.34% 4.10% 4.04% 3.65% 5.63% 12.39% g IP2t Interest Payments 40.78 43.82 43.47 43.14 42.63 41.40 40.76 35.55 26.72 17.93 18.86 18.90 TABLE 14: I8RD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 ... ............ .. .... ... ........ .............. .. -- - - - - -- - - - - - -- - - - - - D. KEu DEBT: 13C Maturity 17.00 ii.0 1i.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 ii.oo 17.00 G3C Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 WiCn 0.71 0.7S 0.71 0.7S 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.71 3iC line Profile of GD3Cn 54S 10 11 9S 7X 3S 21 C3C Comitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CD3Cn Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Cn Amrti;at ion Payments 0.00 o o.oo 0.00 o.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ID3Cn let Disbutsements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 D3Cn Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.g0 0.00 0.00 RWit Intere=t Rate 0.71 0.7X 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.7 0.71 0.71 IP3Cn Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 E. TOTAL CONCESSION"l DEBT: GD3Ct Gross Disbur6seents 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Ct Ao etization Payments 0.00 0.70 0.75 0.80 0.86 0.91 0.97 1.04 XD3Ct get Disbursements 0.00 -0.70 -0.75 -0.80 -0.86 -0.91 -0.97 -1.04 D3Ct Stock of Debt 49.98 49.28 48.53 47.73 4.88 45.97 45.n 43.97 R3Ct Interest Rate 4.89S 4.852 4.82X 4.80S 4.76X 4.72X 4.692 IP3Ct Interest Payments 2.44 2.39 2.34 2.29 2.23 2.17 2.11 3.101AL IBRD A. EXISTING DEBT: GD3X Gross Disbursements 637.86 510.52 401.25 323.94 259.77 194.68 128.35 APXe Amortization Paywents 473.96 585.20 665.15 720.26 737.18 764.35 731.80 XD3e Met Disbursements 163.90 -74.68 -263.89 -196.33 -477.41 -569.68 -603.45 D3e Existing Debt 6129.74 6293.64 6218.96 5955.07 5551.74 5011.33 4511.65 390D.20 R3e Interest Rate 8.7X 8.61 8.52 8.42 8.31 8.2x 8.22 IP3e Interest Payewnts 531.35 541.12 527.95 SOu.10 462.00 418.01 367.99 S. RESTRUCIURED DEBI: GD3r Gross Disbursements 637.86 510.52 401.25 323.94 259.77 194.68 128.35 AP3t Amortization Payments 473.96 585.20 665.15 720.26 737.18 764.35 731.80 ND3r Met Disbursements 163.90 -74.68 -263.89 -396.33 -477.41 -569.68 -603.45 D5r Restructured Debt 6129.74 6293.64 6218.96 5955.07 5558.74 5081.33 4511.65 3908.20 D3eb Of Which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R3e On Non-Restructured Debt 8.7X 8.6X 8.51 8.41 8.32 8.22 8.22 R3r Implicit 8.7X 8.6X 8.5X 8.4X 8.31 8.22 8.22 IP3r Interest Payments 531.35 541.12 527.95 500.10 462.00 418.01 367.99 IABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 .................... .............. .... ... .. .... ... ...... .......... ... ..... ..... .... C. Ku OEBT: ........ ......... C3 C "itmnts 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CD3n Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3n A rtixation Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13n Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 03n Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Pln Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3n Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0. IOTAL DEST: GD3t Gross Disbursements 0.00 637.86 510.52 401.25 323.94 259.77 194.68 126.35 AP3t Aoortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Wilt get Disbursements 0.00 163.90 -7468 -263.89 -396.33 -477.41 -569.68 -603.45 03t Stock of Debt 6129.74 6293.64 6218.96 5955.07 5558.74 5061.35 4511.65 3908.20 R3t Interest Rate 8.67S 8.60S 8.49S 8.40Z 8.31S 8.23k 8.16S IP3t Interest Payments 531.35 541.12 527.95 500.10 462.00 418.01 367.99 OJ 0 TABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: Dl. Fast Disbursement M3NF Maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 G3NF Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 R3NFn 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% T3NF Time ProfiLe of GD3NFn 33% 33% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0% D2. SLow Disbursement M3NS Maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.D0 G3NS Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 R3NSn 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% T3NS Time ProfiLe of GD3NSn 7% 19% 21% 17% 13% 7% 4% C3N Commitments 1451.69 -797.01 Z055.02 -1504.83 3280.63 -636.12 -916.10 C3NF Fast Disbursement 251.95 218.62 113.97 355.21 274.64 334.89 283.94 C3NS SLow Disbursement 1199.74 -1015.64 1941.04 -1860.04 3005.99 -971.01 -1200.04 GD3Nn Gross Disbursements 0.00 167.96 313.71 389.70 458.54 495.88 716.07 573.61 GD3NFn Fast Disbursement 0.00 83.98 156.86 194.85 229.27 247.94 321.58 297.82 GD3NSn Slow Disbursement 0.00 83.98 156.86 194.85 229.27 247.94 394.49 275.79 AP3Nn Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 111.67 50.36 AP3NFn Fast Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.38 36.20 AP3NSn Slow Disbursement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 92.29 14.16 ND3Nn Net Disbursements 0.00 167.96 313.71 389.70 458.54 495.88 604.40 523.25 ND3NFn Fast Disbursement 0.00 83.98 156.86 194.85 229.27 ?47.94 302.20 261.63 UD3NSn Slow Disbursement 0.00 83.98 156.86 194.85 229.27 "47.94 302.20 261.63 D3Nn Stock of Debt 0.00 167.96 481.68 871.37 1329.91 1825.79 2430.19 2953.44 D3NFn Fast Disbursement 0.00 83.98 240.84 435.69 664.96 912.90 1215.09 1476.72 D3NSn Stow Disbursement 0.00 83.98 240.84 435.69 664.96 912.90 1215.09 1476.72 R3Nn Interest Rate #ARITH 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% R3NFn Fast Disbursement 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% R3NSn Slow Disbursement 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7% IP3Nn Interest Payments 0.00 12.93 37.09 67.10 102.40 140.59 187.12 IP3NFn Fast Disbursement 0.00 6.47 18.54 33.55 51.20 70.29 93.56 IP3NSn Slow Disbursement 0.00 6.47 18.54 33.55 r1.20 70.29 93.56 E. TOTAL NONCONCESSIONAL DEBT: GD3Nt Gross Disbursements 258.47 506.60 520.16 524.92 561.59 567.55 767.12 607.19 AP3Nt Amortization Payments 0.00 0.0o 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 223.34 100.72 ND3Nt Net Disbursements -18.84 228.(0 214.61 215.93 246.92 246.42 313.41 221.68 D3Nt Stock of Debt 3374.20 3602.90 3817.51 4033.44 4280.36 4526.79 4840.20 5061.88 R3Nt Interest Rate 9.25% 8.83% 8.56% 8.38% 8.22% 8.08% 7.98% IP3Nt Interest Payments 287.18 312.20 318.20 326.79 337.97 351.80 365.62 386.01 TABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 2.CONCESSIONAL A. EXISTING DEBT: GD3Ce Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.oe 0.00 0.00 AP3Ce Amortization Payments 5.56 5.52 2.16 2.27 2.38 2.50 2.61 2.41 ND3Ce Net Disbursements -5.56 -5.52 -2.16 -2.27 -2.38 -2.50 -2.61 -2.41 03Ce Existing Debt 33.79 28.27 26.11 23.85 21.47 18.98 16.37 13.96 R3Ce Interest Rate 4.5X 4.5X 4.51 4.5X 4.41 4.41 4.31 IP3Ce Interest Payments 1.84 1.52 1.28 1.18 1.07 0.96 0.83 0.71 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRWLENIS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS3CAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS3CIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RF3CAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF3CIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0o GD3Crs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R3Crs Interest Rate 2.0X 2.01 2.0X 2.01 2.0X 2.0X 2.01 2.01 M3Crs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 M3Crs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: CD3Crs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Crs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3Crs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA3C Discount Rate 0.01 0.0% 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 BB3C Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB3 Externally Financed (1) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 UR.CBB3 Use of Reserves (XI 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 100.01 EB.CBB3 Exit Bonds (Z) 0.01 0.0 0.0 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Reb Interest Rate 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 2.51 Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb G.ace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB3 Debt-Equity Swaps (X) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 Rk Profit Rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.0 0.01 0.01 TABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: C8B3C Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB3C Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBB3C Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBB3C Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB3C Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP3Cbb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Ceb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3Cbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3Ceb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUMULATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR3CAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR3CIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD3Car B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R3Car Interest rate 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 W3Car Maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 G3Car Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 C) Effects on: GD3Car Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Car Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3Car Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: UOFF3C A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP3Cwof Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP3Cwof Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD3Cr Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Cr Amortization Payments 5.56 5.52 2.16 2.27 2.38 2.50 2.61 2.41 ND3Cr Net Disbursements -5.56 -5.52 -2.16 -2.27 -2.38 -2.50 -2.61 -2.41 D3Cr Restructured Debt 33.79 28.27 26.1' 23.85 21.47 18.98 16.37 13.96 D3Ceb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.0( 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 interest Rate: R3Ce On Non-Restructured Debt 4.5X 4.5X 4.5X 4.5X 4.4X 4.4X 4.3X R3Cr Iplicit 4.5X 4.5X 4.5X 4.5X 4.4X 4.4X 4.3X IP3Cr Interest Payments 1.84 1.52 1.28 1.18 1.07 0.96 0.83 0.71 TABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0. NEW DEBT: M3C Maturity 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 17.00 G3C Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 fSCn 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%" 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% T3C Time Profile of GD3Cn 54% 10% 11% 9%Y 7X 3% 2% C3C Commitments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD3Cn Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Cn Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ND3Cn Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 D3Cn Stock of Debt 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R3Cn Interest Rate 0.7% 0.7% 0.7Y. 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0. 7% 0.7% IP3Cn Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 E. TOTAL CONCESSIONAL DEBT: GD3Ct Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP3Ct Amortization Payments 5.56 5.52 2.16 2.27 2.38 2.50 2.61 2.41 ND3Ct Net Disbursements -5.56 -5.52 -2.16 -2.27 -2.38 -2.50 -2.61 -2.41 D3Ct Stock of Debt 33.79 28.27 26.11 23.85 21.47 18.98 16.37 13.96 R3Ct Interest Rate 4.51% 4.53% 4.51% 4.48% 4.45% 4.39% 4.32% IP3Ct Interest Payments 1.84 1.52 1.28 1.18 1.07 0.96 0.83 0.71 3.TOTAL IBRD A. EXISTING DEBT: GD3e Gross Disbursements 258.47 338.63 206.44 135.23 103.05 71.67 51.06 33.58 AP3e Amortization Payments 282.87 283.42 307.70 311.26 '17.04 323.63 344.64 337.56 ND3e Net Disbursements -24.40 55.21 -101.26 -176.07, 13.99 -251.95 -293.59 -303.98 D3e Existing Debt 3408.00 3463.21 3361.95 3185.92 Z971.93 2719.97 2426.39 2122.41 R3e Interest Rate 9.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% IP3e Interest Payments 289.02 313.72 306.55 290.87 271.95 250.35 225.87 199.60 B. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD3r Gross Disbursements 258.47 338.63 206.44 135.23 103.05 71.67 51.06 33.58 AP3r Amortization Payments 282.87 283.42 307.70 311.26 317.04 323.63 344.64 337.56 ND3r Net Disbursements -24.40 55.21 -101.26 -176.03 -213.99 -251.95 -293.59 -303.98 D3r Restructured Debt 3408.00 3463.21 3361.95 3185.92 2971.93 2719.97 2426.39 2122.41 D3eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R3e On Non-Restructured Debt 9.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% R3r Implicit 9.2% 8.9X 8.7% 8.5% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% IP3r Interest Payments 289.02 313.72 306.55 290.87 271.95 250.35 225.87 199.60 TABLE 14: IBRD 1988 1989 ;990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 C. NEW DEBT: C3 Commitments 1451.69 -797.01 2055.02 -1504.83 3280.63 -636.12 -916.10 GD3n Gross Disbursements 0.00 167.97 313.71 389.70 458.54 495.88 716.07 573.61 AP3n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 111.67 50.36 ND3n Net Disbursements 0.00 167.97 313.71 389.70 458.54 495.88 604.40 523.25 D3n Stock of Debt 0.00 167.97 481.68 871.37 1329.91 1825.79 2430.19 2953.44 R3n Interest Rate #ARITH 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 IP3n Interest Payments 0.00 12.93 37.09 67.10 102.40 140.59 187.12 D. TOTAL DEBT: .... ......... GD3t Gross Disbursements 258.47 506.60 520.16 524.92 561.59 567.55 767.12 607.19 AP3t Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 223.34 100.72 ND3t Net Disbursements -24.40 223.18 212.45 213.66 244.55 243.93 310.81 219.27 D3t Stock of Debt 3408.00 3631.17 3843.63 4057.29 4301.84 4545.77 4856.57 5075.84 R3t Interest Rate 9.21% 8.80% 8.53% 8.36% 8.20% 8.06% 7.96% IP3t Interest Payments 289.02 313.72 319.48 327.96 339.04 352.75 366.46 386.72 VI 1./ TABLE 15: OTHER MULTILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GD4e Gross Disbursements 130.88 146.95 159.77 143.41 117.19 81.44 51.66 29.24 AP4e Amortization Payments 62.55 57.23 64.69 71.65 82.65 93.63 99.10 106.76 ND4e Net Disbursements 68.33 89.72 95.08 71.75 34.54 -12.19 -47.43 -77.52 D4e Existing Debt 1099.05 1188.77 1283.85 1355.61 1390.15 1377.96 1330.52 1253.00 R4e Interest Rate 10.1% 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% IP4e Interest Payments 94.99 111.20 123.60 132.14 137.28 138.13 134.94 128.75 S. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS4AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS41P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RF4AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF41P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD4rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R4rs Interest Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% M4rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G4rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD4rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP4rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP4rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA4 Discount Rate 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 884 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB4 Externally Financed tX) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UR.CBB4 Use of Reserves (X) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBB4 Exit Bonds tX) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C.00 Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB4 Debt-Equity Swaps SX) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.G% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 15: OTHER MULTILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBB4 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB4 Externatty Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBS4 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBB4 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB4 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP4bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP4eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP4bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP4eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUMULA(1ON OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR4AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR41P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD4ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R4ar Interest rate 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 N4ar Maturity 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 G4ar Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 C) Effects on: GD4ar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP4ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP4ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFF4 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP4woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP4woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD4r Gross Disbursements 130.88 146.95 159.77 143.41 117.19 81.44 51.66 29.24 AP4r Amortization Payments 62.55 57.23 64.69 71.65 82.65 93.63 99.10 106.76 ND4r Net Disbursements 68.33 89.72 95.08 71.75 34.54 -12.19 -47.43 -77.52 D4r Restructured Debt 1099.05 1188.77 1283.85 1355.61 1390.15 1377.96 1330.52 1253.00 D4eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R4e on Non-Restructured Debt 10.1X 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% R4r laplicit 10.1% 10.4% 10.3% 10.1% 9.9% 9.8% 9.7% IP4r Interest Payments 94.99 111.20 123.60 132.14 137.28 138.'3 134.94 128.75 TABLE 15: OTHER MULTILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0. NEW DEBT: 144 Maturity 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 G4 Grace Period 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 T4 Time Profile of GD4n 10X 122 16X 18X 16% 12X 92 C4 Commitments 569.68 380.40 -46.24 -23.36 187.68 1009.11 4.12 GD4n Gross Disbursements 0.00 56.97 106.40 132.17 155.52 168.19 240.60 236.85 AP4n Amortization Pavments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35.60 59.38 ND4n Net Disbursements 0.00 56.97 106.40 132.17 155.52 168.19 204.99 177.47 D4n Stock of Debt 0.00 56.97 163.37 295.54 451.06 619.25 824.24 1001.71 R4n Interest Rate 7.8% 7.82 7.8X 7.8% 7.8% 7.8% 7.82 7.8% IP4n Interest Payments 0.00 4.44 12.74 23.05 35.18 48.30 64.29 E. TOTAL DEBT: GD4t Gross Disbursements 130.88 203.91 266.17 275.58 272.71 249.63 292.26 266.09 AP4t Amortization Payments 62.55 57.23 64.69 71.65 82.65 93.63 134.70 166.14 ND4t Net Disbursements 68.33 146.69 201.48 203.93 190.06 156.00 157.56 99.95 D4t Stock of Debt 1099.05 1245.74 1447.22 1651.15 1841.21 1997.20 2154.76 2254.71 R4t Interest Rate 10.122 10.282 10.01% 9.71X 9.41X 9.17X 8.96X IP4t Interest Payments 94.99 111.20 128.05 144.89 160.34 173.31 183.24 193.04 IABLE 16: BILATERAL CONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GD5e Gross Disbursements 766.88 486.93 432.48 371.95 247.41 75.00 38.75 19.98 AP5e Amortization Payments 11.71 123.31 137.54 223.25 281.61 344.29 365.23 382.58 ND5e Net Disbursements 755.17 363.61 294.93 148.70 -34.20 -269.29 -326.48 -362.60 D5e Existing Debt 4719.19 5082.80 5377.74 5526.43 5492.24 5222.95 489o.,' 4533.87 R5e Interest Rate 3.5% 3.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2X IP5e Interest Payments 52.96 165.81 175.95 183.51 185.23 179.27 168.29 155.95 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS5AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS51P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RF5AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF5IP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD5rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R5rs Interest Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% M5rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G5rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GDSrs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP5rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP5rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELrA5 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BB5 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB5 ExternaLty Financed (x) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CB5 Use of Reserves tX) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBB5 Exit Bonds t%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB5 Debt-Equity Swaps (t) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB AdditionaLity of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 16: BILATERAL CONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBB5 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB5 ExternalLy Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBB5 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBB5 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB5 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP5bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP5eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP5bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP5eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCLUULATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR5AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR51P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD5ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R5ar Interest rate 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 M5ar Maturity 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 ON G5ar Grace Period 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 0 C) Effects on: GD5.r Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP5ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP5ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFF5 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP5woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP5woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD5r Gross Disbursements 766.88 486.93 432.48 371.95 247.41 75.00 38.75 19.98 AP5r Amortization Paym-nts 11.71 123.31 137.54 223.25 281.61 344.29 365.23 382.58 ND5r Net Disbursements 755.17 363.61 294.93 148.70 -34.20 -269.29 -326.48 -362.60 D5r Restructured Debt 4719.19 5082.80 5377.74 5526.43 5492.24 5222.95 4896.47 4533.87 D5eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R5e On Non-Restructured Debt 3.5X 3.5X 3.4X 3.4X 3.3% 3.21 3.2X R5r lmpLicit 3.5X 3.51 3.41 3.41 3.31 3.21 3.21 IP5r Interest Payments 52.96 165.81 175.95 183.51 185.23 179.27 168.29 155.95 TABLE 16: BILATERAL CONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: M5 Maturity 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 22.00 G5 Grace Period 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 6.40 T5 Time Profite of GD5n 18% 33% 23% 25% 8% 2% 1% C5 Commitments 1354.60 46.61 1326.50 -674.85 2874.66 -1547.14 3650.46 GD5n Gross Disbursements 0.00 243.83 455.41 565.71 665.64 719.85 877.38 759.58 AP5n A irtization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ND5n Net Disbursements 0.00 243.83 455.41 565.71 665.64 719.85 877.38 759.58 D5n Stock of Debt 0.00 243.83 699.24 1264.94 1930.59 2650.44 3527.82 4287.41 R5n Interest Rate 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% IP5n Interest Payments 0.00 8.29 23.77 43.01 65.64 90.11 119.95 E. TOTAL DEBT: GD5t Gross Disbursements 766.88 730.75 887.88 937.66 913.05 794.85 916.14 779.56 AP5t Amortization Payments 11.71 123.31 137.54 223.25 281.61 344.29 365.23 382.58 ND5t Net Disbursements 755.17 607.44 750.34 714.41 631.45 450.57 550.90 396.98 co D5t Stock of Debt 4719.19 5326.63 6076.97 6791.38 7422.83 7873.39 8424.30 8821.28 R5t Interest Rate 3.51% 3.46% 3.41% 3.36% 3.30% 3.28% 3.28% IP5t Interest Payments 52.96 165.81 184.24 207.29 228.24 244.91 258.40 275.90 TABLE 17: BILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GD6e Gross Disbursements 31.37 72.32 40.14 24.10 8.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP6e Amortization Payments 27.48 95.41 107.45 202.23 245.25 245.71 244.22 238.18 ND6e Net Disbursements 3.90 -23.09 -67.31 -178.13 -237.21 -245.71 -244.22 -238.18 D6e Existing Debt 1426.00 1402.91 1335.60 1157.47 920.26 674.55 430.33 192.15 R6e Interest Rate 8.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.0% IP6e Interest Payments 67.42 119.05 115.57 106.58 89.98 70.13 49.98 30.07 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the ContractuaL Stream of: RS6AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS61P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: on RF6AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF61P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD6rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R6rs Interest Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.uX 2.0% M6rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G6rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD6rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP6rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP6rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYSACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA6 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BS6 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB6 Externalty Financed (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBB6 Use of Reserves (X) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0X 100.0% EB.CBB6 Exit Bonds (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB6 Debt-Equity Swaps (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB AdditionaLity of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 17: BILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBB6 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFB86 Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 UR8B6 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EEB86 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 C.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEB6 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP6bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP6eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP6bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP6eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUMULATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR6AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR61P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD6ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R6ar Interest rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 M6ar Maturity 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 G6ar Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 C) Effects on: GD6ar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP6ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP6ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFF6 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP6woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP6woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD6r Gross Disbursements 31.37 72.32 40.14 24.10 8.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP6r Amortization Payments 27.48 95.41 107.45 202.23 245.25 245.71 244.22 238.18 ND6r Net Disbursements 3.90 -23.09 -67.31 -178.13 -237.21 -245.71 -244.22 -238.18 D6r Restructured Debt 1426.00 1402.91 1335.60 1157.47 920.26 674.55 430.33 192.15 D6eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R6e On Non-Restructured Debt 8.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.0% R6r Implicit 8.3% 8.2% 8.0% 7.8% 7.6% 7.4% 7.0% IP6r Interest Payments 67.42 119.05 115.57 106.58 89.98 70.13 49.98 30.07 TABLE 17: BILATERAL NONCONCESSIONAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: 16 Maturity 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 G6 Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 T6 Time Profile of GD6n 13% 30% 25% 15% 8% 5% 4% C6 Commitments 517.89 -227.85 731.42 -433.47 1465.28 -1364.07 2707.45 GD6n Gross Disbursements 0.00 67.33 125.75 156.20 183.80 250.55 271.27 311.88 AP6n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 51.79 29.00 102.15 ND6n Net Disbursements 0.00 67.33 125.75 156.20 183.80 198.77 242.26 209.74 D6n Stock of Debt 0.00 67.33 193.07 349.28 533.07 731.84 974.10 1183.84 R6n Interest Rate 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% 9.9% IP6n Interest Payments 0.00 6.67 19.11 34.58 52.77 72.45 96.44 E. TOTAL DEBT: GD6t Gross Disbursements 31.37 139.65 165.89 180.30 191.84 250.55 271.27 311.88 AP6t Amortization Payments 27.48 95.41 107.45 202.23 245.25 297.53 273.22 340.33 ND6t Net Disbursements 3.90 44.24 58.44 -21.92 -53.42 -46.95 -1.95 -28.45 D6t Stock of Debt 1426.00 1470.24 1528.67 1506.75 1453.33 1406.39 1404.43 1375.99 R6t Interest Rate 8.35% 8.31% 8.22% 8.27% 8.46% 8.71% 9.01% IP6t Interest Payments 67.42 119.05 122.23 125.70 124.56 122.90 122.43 126.50 TABLE 18: PRIVATE BONDS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GD7e Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7e Amortization Payments 169.93 167.30 173.60 151.87 36.43 34.44 10.60 5.26 WD7e Net DisbLarsements -169.93 -167.30 -173.60 -151.87 -36.43 -34.44 -10.60 -5.26 D7e Existing Debt 579.50 412.20 238.60 86.73 50.30 15.86 5.26 0.00 R7e Interest Rate 7.3% 7.0% 6.4% 6.3X 6.0% 6.3% 3.8% IP7e Interest Payments 56.25 42.46 28.79 15.22 5.49 3.00 0.99 0.20 8. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS7AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS71P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RF7AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF71P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 U' GD7rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R7rs Interest Rate 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% M7rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G7rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD7rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP7rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA7 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0X 0.0% 0.0% BB7 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB7 Externally Financed (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBB7 Use of Reserves (M) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CB87 Exit Bonds C%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB7 Debt-Equity Siaps (M) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB Additionality ot DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 18: PRIVATE BONDS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 9) Financing: CBB7 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB7 Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBB7 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 EBB?7 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB7 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP7bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP7bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP7eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCLMULATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR7AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR71P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD7ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R7ar Interest rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 M7ar Maturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 0 G7ar Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: WD7ar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 WP7ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: UOFF7 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP7ioff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP7woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD7r Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP7r Amortization Payments 169.93 167.30 173.60 151.87 36.43 34.44 10.60 5.26 ND7r Net Misbursements -169.93 -167.30 -173.60 -151.87 -36.43 -34.44 -10.60 -5.26 D7r Restructured Debt 579.50 412.20 238.60 86.73 50.30 15.86 5.26 0.00 D7eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R7e On Non-Restructured Debt 7.3X 7.0X 6.4X 6.3X 6.0X 6.3X 3.8X R7r Implicit 7.3X 7.0X 6.4X 6.3X 6.0X 6.3X 3.8X IP7r Interest Payments 56.25 42.46 28.79 15.22 5.49 3.00 0.99 0.20 TABLE 18: PRIVATE BONDS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 0. NEW DEBT: NY maturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 G7 Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T7 Time Profile of GD7n 100% 0X 0% 0X 0X 0X 0X C7 Commitments 19.74 40.15 55.77 73.15 89.73 117.44 127.48 GD7n Gross Disbursements 0.00 19.74 40.15 55.77 73.15 89.73 117.44 127.48 AP7n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 3.29 9.98 19.28 31.47 46.42 66.00 ND7n Net Disbursements 0.00 19.74 36.86 45.79 53.88 58.27 71.02 61.48 D7n Stock of Debt 0.00 19.74 56.60 102.39 156.26 214.53 285.55 347.03 R7n Interest Rate 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% IP7n Interest Payments 0.00 1.97 5.66 10.24 15.63 21.45 28.55 E. TOTAL DEBT: GD7t Gross Disbursements 0.00 19.74 40.15 55.77 73.15 89.73 117.44 127.48 AP7t Amortization Payments 169.93 167.30 176.89 161.85 55.71 65.91 57.02 71.26 ND7t Net Disbursements -169.93 -147.57 -136.74 -106.08 17.45 23.83 60.42 56.22 D7t Stock of Debt 579.50 431.93 295.19 189.12 206.56 230.39 290.81 347.., R7t Interest Rate 7.33% 7.12% 7.07% 8.31% 9.02% 9.74% 9.89% IP7t Interest Payments 56.25 42.46 30.76 20.87 15.72 18.63 22.45 28.75 TABLE 19: PRIVATE CONhERCIAL BANKS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GD8e Gross Disbursements 8.00 93.32 47.00 32.90 23.50 35.25 11.75 0.00 AP8e Amortization Payments 621.19 359.07 531.48 537.14 531.83 1357.73 1933.96 1160.51 ND8& Net Disbursements -613.19 -265.75 -484.48 -504.24 -508.33 -1322.48 -1922.21 -1160.51 D8e Existing Debt 9768.83 9503.09 9018.60 8514.36 8006.03 6683.55 4761.34 3600.83 R8e Interest Rate 11.9% 12.8% 13.4% 15.1% 14.7% 15.3% 17.8% IP8e Interest Payments 859.18 1166.51 1218.28 1209.65 1286.60 1180.77 1022.77 849.49 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS8AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RS8IP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: an RF8AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 o RF8IP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD8rs CapitaLization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R8rs Interest Rate 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% "8rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G8rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD8rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP8rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP8rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTA8 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% B88 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB8 Externally Financed tX) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBB8 Use of Reserves (X) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBB8 Exit Bonds (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% web Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB8 Debt-Equity Swaps tX) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0*0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 19: PRIVATE COMERCIAL BANKS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBB8 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB8 Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBB8 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBB8 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB8 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP8bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APBeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP8bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP8eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCIUMLATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR8AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR81P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 G08ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R8ar Interest rate 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 M8ar Maturity 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 G8ar Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 C) Effects on: GD8ar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP8ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP8ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFF8 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP8woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP8woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD8r Gross Disbursements 8.00 93.32 47.00 32.90 23.50 35.25 11.75 0.00 AP8r Amortization Payments 621.19 359.07 531.48 537.14 531.83 1357.73 1933.96 1160.51 ND8r Net Disbursements -613.19 -265.75 -484.48 -504.24 -508.33 -1322.48 -1922.21 -1160.51 D8r Restructured Debt 9768.83 9503.09 9018.60 8514.36 8006.03 6683.55 4761.34 3600.83 D8eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R8e On Non-Restructured Debt 11.9% 12.8% 13.4% 15.1% 14.7X 15.3% 17.8X wsr Implicit 11.9% 12.8X 13.42 15.1% 14.72 15.3X 17.82 IP8r Interest Payments 859.18 1166.51 1218.28 1209.65 1286.60 1180.77 1022.77 849.49 TABLE 19: PRIVATE COMERCIAL BANKS 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: M8 Maturity 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 G8 Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 T8 Time Profile of GD8n 43% 25% 13% 9% 8% 2% 0% Ca Commitments 1060.19 1363.77 1346.36 1477.32 1874.48 2821.11 2226.39 GD8n Gross Disbursements 0.00 455.88 851.47 1057.70 1244.55 1557.94 2125.23 2174.25 AP8n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 212.04 484.79 754.06 ND8n Net Disbursements 0.00 455.88 851.47 1057.70 1244.55 1345.90 1640.43 1420.19 D8n Stock of Debt 0.00 455.88 1307.35 2365.05 3609.60 4955.50 6595.94 8016.12 R8n Interest Rate 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% IP8n Interest Payments 0.00 39.21 112.43 203.39 310.43 426.17 567.25 E. TOTAL DEST: .......... GD8t Gross Disbursements 8.00 549.20 898.47 1090.60 1268.05 1593.19 2136.98 2174.25 AP8t Amortization Payments 621.19 359.07 531.48 537.14 531.83 1569.77 2418.75 1914.58 ND8t Net Disbursements -613.19 190.14 366.99 553.46 736.22 23.42 -281.78 259.67 ° D8t Stock of Debt 9768.83 9958.97 10325.95 10879.41 11615.63 11639.05 11357.28 11616.95 R8t Interest Rate 11.94% 12.63% 12.80% 13.70% 12.84% 12.45% 12.47% IP8t Interest Payments 859.18 1166.51 1257.48 1322.08 1490.00 1491.19 1448.95 1416.74 TABLE 20: OTHER PRIVATE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: ........ . .... GD9e Gross Disbursements 134.71 117.94 59.75 40.64 29.22 12.75 0.87 0.00 AP9e Amortization Payments 39.70 310.51 282.46 292.96 192.85 298.40 278.88 244.88 ND9e Net Disbursements 95.01 -192.58 -222.71 -252.32 -163.64 -285.65 -278.02 -244.88 D9e Existing Debt 2170.09 1977.51 1754.80 1502.48 1338.85 1053.20 775.18 530.30 R9e Interest Rate 7.2% 7.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.4% 6.0% 5.4% IP9e Interest Payments 91.91 155.48 138.97 121.53 103.29 86.29 62.87 41.55 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RS9AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 U.00 0.00 0.00 RS91P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RF9AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RF91P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD9rs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R9rs Interest Rate 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% M9rs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 G9rs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GD9rs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.C3 0.00 AP9rs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP9rs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DLLTA9 Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BB9 Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBB9 Externally Financed (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBB9 Use of Reserves (X) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBB9 Exit Bonds (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBB9 Debt-Equity Swaps (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% O.0X TABLE 20: OTHER PRIVATE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 8) Financing: CB89 Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBB9 Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URB9 Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBB9 Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBB9 Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: AP9bb Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP9eb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP9bb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP9eb Of which: Exit Bords 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCWJLAT1ON OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: AR9AP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AR91P Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GD9ar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0. I. 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 R9ar Interest rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 W9ar Maturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 s G9ar Grace Period 0.00 o.noo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: GD9ar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 AP9ar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 (0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP9ar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFF9 A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: AP9woff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IP9woff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GD9r Gross Disbursements 134.71 117.94 59.75 40.64 29.22 12.75 0.87 0.00 AP9r Amortization Payments 39.70 310.51 282.46 292.96 192.85 298.40 278.88 244.88 109r Met Disbursements 95.01 -192.58 -222.71 -252.32 -163.64 -285.65 -278.02 -244.88 09r Restructured Debt 2170.09 1977.51 1754.80 1502.48 1338.85 1053.20 775.18 530.30 D9eb Of which: Exit Bands 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: R9e On Non-Restructured Debt 7.2% 7.0X 6.9X 6.9X 6.4X 6.01 5.4X R9r lmplicit 7.21 7.0 6.9X 6.9X 6.4X 6.01 5.4X IP9r Interest Payments 91.91 155.48 138.97 121.53 103.29 86.29 62.87 41.55 TABLE 20: OTHER PRIVATE 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 '994 1995 D. . ..ET: M9 Naturity 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 G9 Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 T9 Time Profite of GD9n 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% C9 Commitments 94.90 193.06 268.17 351.76 431.49 564.72 612.99 GD9n Gross Disbursements 0.00 94.90 193.06 268.17 351.76 431.49 564.72 612.99 AP9n Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 15.82 47.99 92.69 151.32 223.23 317.35 ND9n Met Disbursements 0.00 94.90 177.25 220.18 259.07 280.17 341.48 295.64 D9n Stock of Debt 0.00 94.90 272.15 492.33 751.40 1031.57 1373.06 1668.69 R9r, Interest Rate 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% IP9n Interest Payments 0.00 9.49 27.21 49.23 75.14 103.16 137.31 E. TOTAL DEBT: GD9t Gross Disbursements 134.71 212.83 252.81 308.81 380.98 444.24 565.58 612.99 AP9t Amortization Payments 39.70 310.51 298.27 340.95 285.54 449.71 502.11 562.23 ND9t Net Disbursements 95.01 -97.68 -45.46 -32.14 95.44 -5.47 63.47 50.76 D9t Stock of Debt 2170.09 2072.41 2f26.95 1994.81 2090.25 2084.77 2148.24 2199.00 R9t Interest Rate 7.16% 7.16% 7.34% 7.65% 7.72% 7.96% 8.33% IP9t Interest Payments 91.91 155.48 148.46 148.75 152.52 161.43 166.02 178.86 TABLE 21: PRIVATE NON-GUARANTEED 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: ..... ....... ...... GDPRe Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPRe Amortization Payments 100.00 118.00 120.00 115.00 128.00 125.00 118.00 100.00 NDPRe Net Disbursements -100.00 -118.00 -120.00 -115.00 -128.00 -125.00 -118.00 -100.00 DPRe Existing Debt 992.43 874.43 754.43 639.43 511.43 38'.43 268.43 168.43 RPRe Interest Rate 8.4X 8.3% 8.4% 8.4X 8.3X 8.0X 8.22 IPPRe Interest Payments 123.00 83.00 72.40 63.20 54.00 42.40 31.10 22.10 B. DEBT RESTRUCTLIRING INSTRUNENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS; A) Pure Rescheduting Change in the Contractuat Stream of: RSPRAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RSPRIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8) Refinancing Reduction in: RFPRAP Anortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RFPRIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GDPRrs CapitaLization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RPRrs Interest Rate 2.02 2.02 2.02 2.0X 2.02 2.02 2.02 UPRrs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 GPRrs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GDPRrs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPRrs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPPRrs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTAPR Discount Rate 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0 0.02 0.02 BBPR Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBBPR Externally Financed (X) 0.0 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 UR.CBBPR Use of Reserves (%) 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 100.02 EB.CBBPR Exit Bonds (X) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.0(. Reb Interest Rate 2.5X 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 2.52 Web Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Gob Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBBPR Debt-Equity Swaps (X) 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Rk Profit Rate 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 TABLE 21: PRIVATE NON-GUARANTEED 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBBPR Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBBPR Externatly Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBBPR Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBBPR Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBBPR Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: APPR*b Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPReb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPPRbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPPReb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCaJMLATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: ARPRAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ARPRIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GDPRar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RPRar Interest rate 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 MPRar Maturity B.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 GPRar Grace Period 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 C) Effects on: GDPRar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPRar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPPRar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFFPR A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8) Effects on: APPRwoff Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPPRuoff Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GDPRr Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 U.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APPRr Amortization Payments 100.00 118.00 170.00 115.00 128.00 125.00 118.00 100.00 NDPRr Net Disbursements -100.00 -118.00 -120.00 -115.00 -128.00 -125.00 -118.00 -100.00 DPRr Restructured Debt 92.43 874.43 754.43 639.43 511.43 386.43 268.43 168.43 OPReb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: RPRe On Mon-Restructured Debt 8.4% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 8.2% RPRr Implicit 8.4% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.0% 8.2% IPPRr Interest Payments 123.00 83.00 72.40 63.20 54.00 42.40 31.10 22.10 TABLE 21: PRIVATE NON-GUARANTEED 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: MPR Maturity 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 GPR Grace Period 3.03 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 TPR Time Profite of GDPRn 100% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0X 0% CPR----C --------i--m---nt-----41.99-----78.43------97.42-----114.63---- 132.37 175.1------------- 174.38---- CPR Commitments 41.99 78.43 97.42 114.63 132.37 175.18 174.38 GDPRn Gross Disbursements 0.00 41.99 78.43 97.42 114.63 132.37 175.18 174.38 APPRn Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.40 24.08 43.57 NDPRn Net Disbursements 0.00 41.99 78.43 97.42 114.63 123.97 151.10 130.81 DPRn Stock of Debt 0.00 41.99 120.42 217.84 332.48 456.45 607.55 738.36 RPRn Interest Rate 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6% IPPRn Interest Payments 0.00 3.61 10.36 18.73 28.59 39.25 52.25 E. TOTAL DEBT: GDPRt Gross Disbursements 0.00 41.99 78.43 97.42 114.63 132.37 175.18 174.38 APPRt Amortization Payments 100.00 118.00 120.00 115.00 128.00 133.40 142.08 143.57 NDPRt Net Disbursements -100.00 -76.01 -41.57 -17.58 -13.37 -1.03 33.10 30.81 DPRt Stock of Debt 992.43 916.42 874.85 857.27 843.90 842.87 875.97 906.79 RPRt Interest Rate 8.36% 8.29% 8.41% 8.48% 8.41% 8.35% 8.49% IPPRt Interest Payments 123.00 83.00 76.01 73.56 72.73 70.99 70.35 74.35 TABLE 22: IMF 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GDINFe Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APINFe Amortization Payments 195.77 196.42 307.31 259.94 132.45 55.43 80.85 61.64 NDINFe Net Disbursements -195.77 -196.42 -307.31 -259.94 -132.45 -55.43 -80.85 -61.64 DINFe Existing Debt 1093.13 896.72 589.41 329.47 197.02 141.59 60.74 -0.90 RIFe Interest Rate 7.7% 10.7% 12.0% 15.2% 20.1% 23.3% 41.7% IPINFe Interest Payments 74.11 83.73 96.38 70.57 49.94 39.61 33.05 25.35 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RSIMFAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RSINFIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RFIMFAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RFIMFIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GDIMFrs CapitaLization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RIMFrs Interest Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% MINFrs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 GINFrs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GDIMFrs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APIMFrs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPINFrs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTAIN Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BBIMF Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EF.CBBI Externally Financed (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBBI Use of Reserves (%) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBBI Exit Bonds (%) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 Geb Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 DE.CBBI Debt-Equity Swaps (M) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 22: IMF 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBBIMF Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBBMIF Externally Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBBIMF Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBBIRF Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBBIMF Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: APIMFbb Amortizdtion Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APINFeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPIMFbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPINFeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUWWLATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on: ARINFAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ARIMFIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GDIMFar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RIMFar Interest rate 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 MINFar Maturity 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 GIMFar Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: GDINFar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APINFar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPIMFar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFFINF A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: APINFwo Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPINFwo Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GDINFr Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APINFr Amorti?ation Payments 195.77 196.42 307.31 259.94 132.45 55.43 80.85 61.64 NDIMFr Net Disbursements -195.77 -196.42 -307.31 -259.94 -132.45 -55.43 -80.85 -61.64 DIMFr Restructured Debt 1093.13 896.72 589.41 329.47 197.02 141.59 60.74 -0.90 DIMFeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: RINFe On Non-Restructured Debt 7.7X 10.7X 12.0X 15.2l 20.1X 23.3X 41.7X RIMFr iqplcit 7.7X 10.7X 12.0X 15.2X 20.1X 23.3X 41.7X IPINFr Interest Payments 74.11 83.73 96.38 70.57 49.94 39.61 33.05 25.35 TABLE 22: INF 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: NINF Naturity 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 GINF Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TINF Time Profite of GDINFn 50X 50X 01 0X 01 0X 01 ~~~~~. . ... .... .. .... ...... .. ...... ...... ........ ............... .. ....... ........... ..... ........ ... ..... ...... .... ...... ............. CINF Coeitments 111.98 171.82 277.18 492.49 495.75 690.79 717.40 GDINFn Gross Disbursements 0.00 55.99 141.90 224.50 339.84 49.12 593.27 704.10 APINFn Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 37.33 94.60 186.99 283.83 391.81 529.68 NDINFn Net Disbursements 0.00 55.99 104.57 129.90 152.85 165.29 201.47 174.42 DINFn Stock of Debt 0.00 55.99 160.56 290.46 443.30 608.60 810.06 984.48 RINFn Interest Rate 8.7X 8.71 8.7X 8.71 8.71 8.71 8.71 8.71 IPINFn Interest Payments 0.00 4.87 13.97 25.27 38.57 52.95 70.48 E. TOTAL DEBT: GDINFt Gross Disbursements 0.00 55.99 141.90 224.50 339.84 449.12 593.27 704.10 APINFt Aortization Payments 195.77 196.42 344.63 354.54 319.44 339.26 472.65 591.32 NDINFt Net Disbursements -195.77 -140.43 -202.74 -130.04 20.40 109.87 120.62 112.78 -4 D.-'t Stock of Debt 1093.13 952.70 749.97 619.92 640.32 750.19 870.81 983.58 RINFt Interest Rate 7.66X 10.63X 11.27X 12.13X 12.21X 11.461 11.00X IPINFt Interest Payments 74.11 83.73 101.25 84.54 75.21 78.18 86.00 95.83 TABLE 23: SHORT TERM CAPITAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 A. EXISTING DEBT: GDSTe Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APSTe Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NDle Net Disbursements 2.57 0.76 -0.22 -0.58 -1.30 -1.50 -1.50 -1.69 OSTe Existing Debt 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3188.00 RSTe Interest Rate 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% IPSTe Interest Payments 341.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B. DEBT RESTRUCTURING INSTRUMENTS: 1. RESCHEDULINGS: A) Pure Rescheduling Change in the Contractual Stream of: RSSTAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RSSTIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Refinancing Reduction in: RFSTAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 X RFSTIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0 GDSTrs Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RSTrs Interest Rate 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% NSTrs Maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 GSTrs Grace Period 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 C) Effects on: GDSTrs Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APSTrs Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPSTrs Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 C 00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2. DEBT BUYBACKS: A) Conditions: DELTAST Discount Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% BBST Debt Bought Back 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Q1.00 0.00 EF.CBBS Externally Financed (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% UR.CBBS Use of Reserves (X) 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% EB.CBBS Exit Bonds (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Reb Interest Rate 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% Meb maturity 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 DE.CB8S Debt-Equity Swaps (X) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% A.DEBB Additionality of DFI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Rk Profit Rate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% TABLE 25: SHORT TERM CAPITAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 B) Financing: CBBST Cost of Buyback 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EFBBST Externalty Financed 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 URBBST Use of Reserves 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 EBBBST Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DEBBST Debt-Equity Swaps 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: APSTbb Amortization Payments 0.00 Ce.00 0.00 0.00 e.u0 0.00 0.00 APSTeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPSTbb Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 G.00 IPSTeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3. ACCUMULATION OF ARREARS: A) Arrears on. ARSTAP Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ARSTIP Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 GOSTar B) Capitalization: 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 RST,r Interest rate 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 NSTar Maturity 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 GSTar Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C) Effects on: GDSTar Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APSTar Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPSTar Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4. WRITE-OFFS: WOFFST A) Debt Forgiven 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 B) Effects on: APSTwof Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 IPSTwof Interest Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 C. RESTRUCTURED DEBT: GDSTr Gross Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 APSTr Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 NDSTr Net Disbursements 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 DSTr Restructured Debt 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 3888.00 DSTeb Of which: Exit Bonds 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Interest Rate: RSTe On Non-Restructured Debt 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% 10.0% RSTr Iqpticit 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% IPSTr Interest Payments 341.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TABLE 23: SHORT TERM CAPITAL 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 D. NEW DEBT: MST Maturity 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 GST Grace Period 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 TST Time Profile of GDSTn 1001 0 01 0Z 01 01 0X CST Commitments 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 1955.12 2602.33 3162.64 GDSTn Gross Disbursements 0.00 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 1955.12 2602.33 3162.64 APSTn Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 1955.12 2602.33 NDSTn Net Disbursements 0.00 179.86 335.93 417.30 491.02 531.01 647.21 560.31 DSTn Stock of Debt 0.00 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 19'55.12 2602.33 3162.64 RSTn Interest Rate 10.01 10.0X 10.01 10.0% 10.0% 10.01 10.0% IPSTn Interest Payments 0.00 17.99 51.58 93.31 142.41 195.51 260.23 E. TOTAL DEBT: GDSTt Gross Disbursements 0.00 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 1955.12 2602.33 3162.64 APSTt Amortization Payments 0.00 0.00 179.86 515.80 933.10 1424.11 1955.12 2602.33 NDSTt Net Disbursements 0.00 179.86 335.93 417.30 491.02 531.01 647.21 560.31 DSTt Stock of Debt 3888.00 4067.86 403.80 4821.10 5312.11 5843.12 6490.33 7050.64 RSTt Interest Rate 0.00X 0.44% 1.17% 1.94% 2.68% 3.35% 4.01% IPSTt Interest Payments 341.00 0.00 17.99 51.58 93.31 142.41 195.51 260.23 PRE WorkinC Paper Series Contact BI6 Auihnr for paper WPS469 Modeling Economic Behavior in J. Barry Smith August 1990 M. Abundo Peru's Informal Urban Retail Sector Morton Stelcner 36820 WPS470 What Do Alternative Measures of Alexander J. Yeats August 1990 J. Epps Comparative Advantage Reveal 33710 About the Composition of Developing Countries' Exports? WPS471 The Determinants of Farm Gershon Feder August 1990 C. Spooner Investment and Residential Lawrence J. Lau 30464 Construction in Post-Reform China Justin Lin Xiaopeng Luo WPS472 Gains in the Education of Peruvian Elizabeth M. King August 1990 C. Cristobal Women, 1940 to 1980 Rosemary Bellew 33640 WPS473 Adjustment, Investment, and the Riccardo Faini August 1990 R. Sugui Real Exchange Rate in Developing Jaime de Melo 37951 Countries WPS474 Methods for Measuring the Effect Anne Maasland August 1990 P. Dixon of Adjustment Policies on Income 39175 Distribution WPS475 Does Divestiture Matter? A Ahmed Galal August 1990 G. Orraca-Tetteh Framework for Learning from Experience 37646 WPS476 Health Insurance in Sub-Saharan Ronald J. Vogel August 1990 K. Brown Africa: A Survey and Analysis 35073 WPS477 Private Participation in the Delivery Thelma A. Triche August 1990 M. Dhokai of Guinea's Water Supply Services 33970 WPS478 Interrelations Among Child Mortality, John Marcotte August 1990 S. Cochrane Breastfeeding, and Fertility in John B. Casterline 33222 Egypt, 1975-80 WPS479 Conversion Factors: A Discussion Michael Hee August 1990 E. Zamora of Alternate Rates and Corresponding 33706 Weights WPS480 An Evaluation of Neutral Trade Policy Jaime de Melo August 1990 R. Sugui Incentives Under Increasing Returns David Roland-Holst 37951 to Scale WPS481 The Effects of Trade Reforms on James Tybout August 1990 R. Sugui Scale and Technical Efficiency: Jaime de Melo 37951 New Evidence from Chile Vittorio Corbo WPC 482 Membership in the CFA Zone: Shantayanan Devarajan August 1990 R. Sugui Odyssean Journey or Trojan Horse? Jaime de Melo 37951 PRE Working Paper Series Contact Aulho for pape WPS483 An Evaluation of the Main Elements Refik Erzan August 1990 G. llogon in the Leading Proposals to Phase Paula Holmes 33732 Out the Multi-Fibre Arrangement WPS484 Stock Markets, Growth, and Policy Ross Levine August 1990 R. Levine 39175 WPS485 Do Labor Market Distortions Cause Ram6n Lopez August 1990 R. Luz Overvaluation and Rigidity of the Luis Riveros 34303 Real Exchange Rate? WPS486 A RMSM-X Model for Turkey Luc Everaert August 1990 S. Aggarwal Fernando Garcia-Pinto 39176 Jaume Ventura