The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Brazil | Environment, Natural Resources & the Blue Economy Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 8 | ARCHIVED on 30-Dec-2019 | ISR38164 | Implementing Agencies: Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FUNDEP), Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao (MCTI), Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 28-Mar-2016 Effectiveness Date: 22-Jun-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 14-Dec-2018 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 18-Apr-2019 Original Closing Date: 29-May-2020 Revised Closing Date: 29-Mar-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country’s institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Deforestation monitoring:(Cost $4.39 M) Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation:(Cost $3.31 M) Project management, monitoring and evaluation:(Cost $1.55 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions This Project is part of the Brazil Investment Plan (BIP) under the Forest Investment Program (FIP). The higher-level objective of the BIP, to which the project contributes to is: to promote sustainable land use and to improve forest management in the Cerrado, the second largest biome in Brazil and in South America, to reduce pressure on its remaining forests, to reduce GHG emissions and to increase CO2 sequestration. This project aims at the systematic and continuous generation of information on deforestation, forest degradation, land use, and the development of an early-warning system for preventing forest fires. Accurate, up-to-date, high-quality information should also contribute to enabling better 12/30/2019 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) management of the Cerrado. The Project is acting in synergy with the ongoing efforts from the Government of Brazil and other BIP projects, and will contribute to achieve the objectives of both the National Policy on Climate Change and the Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation and Fires in the Cerrado. The project is being implemented by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTIC) in partnership with National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Federal University of Goiás (UFG), and Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with support from Research Development Foundation FUNDEP, the Implementing Agency of the project that handles all the administrative tasks. The Project has three components: (i) deforestation monitoring; (ii) information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation; and (iii) project management, monitoring and evaluation. Component 1: The annual deforestation rates for the years 2016, 2017 and 2018 were completed and made public. The TerraBrasilis platform has been launched and made public in an event in September 2018. The planned activities are progressing well. The near real-time alerts for rapid control intervention actions for the Cerrado (DETER system) have been made available - daily maps/warnings are sent to Government Institutions for monitoring. Component 2: Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation. The INPE’s fire risk information system is being improved and available at Queimadas website. Three selected Protected Areas are piloting fire spread risk model as a fire management tool (FISC). The INPE’s GHG emissions estimation system for the Cerrado has been concluded and made public and accessible to the public - improvements and connection to other products are under way. Component 3: Project management. This component finances operational costs and training. The Bank requested FUNDEP to closely monitor procurement, implementation, and disbursement progresses with each technical team, and keep procurement plan and progress reports up to date. FUNDEP agreed to send monthly budget reports to the technical teams to facilitate monitoring of the available funds. Overall progress: The project implementation has reached a good pace. A restructuring process was completed in August 2019, including adjustment of the Results Framework and extension of Closing Date. The current scenario is positive as, technical activities are ongoing: (i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); (ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; (iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; and (iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. The Cerrado Biome annual deforestation rates for 2015- 2016, 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, based on satellite imagery, were completed and are available at http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado. The platform also provides interactive maps, graphics and downloads. The deforestation rate for 2018-2019 is completed and was made public on December 16, 2019. Access the TerraBrasilis platform at: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/ Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Low Low Low Technical Design of Project or Program Low Low Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Moderate Substantial Substantial Fiduciary Moderate Low Low Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Low Low Low Other -- -- -- Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate 12/30/2019 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Enhance Brazil Institutional capacity to monior deforestation in the Cerrado Biome IN00777157 ►Information on deforestation in the Cerrado is regularly made available to the public and relevant institutions (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 30-Jun-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The Cerrado Biome annual deforestation rate 2015-2016, 2016-2017, and 2017-2018, based on satellite imagery, are available on line at:http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado/ The DETER data is also regularly available at http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado/ Comments: The platform permits to monitor the number of users, timing, type of information etc.. Example: 2,210 users were registered from 9/25 to 11/27/2018 of Cerrado Monitoring project. The information use will be tracked by INPE and included in the implementation completion report. IN00777162 ►Government institutions in charge of policy, deforestation control and fire prevention using the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The following institution are using the information rovided by the Project: 1. Centro de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN) 2. IBAMA – its Centro Nacional de Prevenção e Combate aos Incêndios Florestais (PrevFogo) and its states agencies. 3. Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade (ICMBio) – especifically for the fire Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó; Parque Naciomal da Chapada dos Veadeiros; and Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra 4. Centro Integrado Multiagências de Coordenação Operacional e Federal em Brasília (CIMAN) 5. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) 6. Fundação Nacional do Índio (FUNAI) Comments: 7. Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) 8. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) 9. Agência nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) 10. Sistema de Proteção da Amazônia/Ministério da Defesa (SIPAM) 11. Serviço Florestal Brasileiro (SFB) 12. State Secretariats - Tocantins, Piaui, Bahia, Goias. 13. Municipal Secretariats 14. Embrapa 15. Ibram-DF Enhance Brazil 's institutional capacity to provide information on fire risks in the Cerrrado Biome IN00777156 ►Real-time information on potential fire spread in the Cerrado is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/30/2019 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The information at: http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/portal Comments: IN00777161 ►Improved information on forest fire risk is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The forest fire monitoring products have been developed and/or improved and available to the public. Comments: Enhance Brazil's intitutional capacity to estimate related GHG emisions in the Cerrado Biome IN00777145 ►GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado are publicly available. (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No Yes Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 Overall Comments PDO Project development indicators definition/description detailed for further clarity, to ensure that the targets currently being monitored comply with the criteria in the descriptions provided in the Results Framework, no change in substance. End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. The Project trained 159 specialists on vegetation cover and greenhouse gas emissions, forest fire risks, and forest fire spread risk. The courses were promoted by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) from November 5 to 7 during the Drone Show and MundoGEO Connect PLUS 2019 event at Melia Hotel Ibirapuera in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Meanwhile, INPE, one of the project’s technical partners, is going to apply the FIP Monitoring model to expand the monitoring deforestation in the other four Brazilian biomes. From now on, in addition to the Amazon and Cerrado, the institute is going to provide official data about vegetation suppression in Caatinga, Pampa, Mata Atlântica, and Pantanal Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Deforestation monitoring IN00777158 ►Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available (PRODES-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 12/30/2019 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 Biennial deforestation rating are available for the period of 2000-2012 and annual deforestation ratings are available for 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, and 2018 and are made public. The data are available at: fttp://www.obt.inpe.br/cerrado/ or Comments: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/cerrado/increments The deforestation mapping and data of 2018-2019 have been completed and made available to the public on December 16, 2019. IN00777163 ►Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered to the public (DETER-Cerrado). (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The deforestation detection information (DETER-Cerado) is being made available to relevant institutions and the general public. http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/alerts/biomes/cerrado/daily/ Comments: Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation IN00777159 ►New fire risk information products are available to users on interactive communication devices (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 50.00 50.00 26.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 Subcomponente 2.b. - New Products 1. Análise de componentes principais (PCA) para mapas 2. Download automático de dados de vento 3. Gerador de focos de incêndio probabilísticos por meio de histórico de áreas queimadas 4. Combustível seco baseado em imagens de satélite; 5. Umidade da vegetação por meio de imagens de satélite 6. Probabilidade bayesiana de fogo por meio de imagens de satélite e histórico de incêndios (para os parques); 7. Probabilidade bayesiana de fogo baseada nos modelos de sazonalidade da vegetação do cerrado 8. Vegetação mensal (combustível); 9. Modelo linear generalizado (GLM) para calculo das relações entre variáveis 10. Modelo de interpolação baseada em regressão não estacionária geograficamente ponderada (GWR) para predição da vegetação ao longo do cerrado por meio de variáveis climáticas; Comments: 11. Classificação supervisionada de imagens de satélite por meio de técnicas de análise de "Big- data" (SVM - Support vector machines) para uso nos parques no manejo do fogo; 12. Classificadores não supervisionados para identificação das unidades climáticas de análise no Cerrado (RF-random forest e CLARA - clustering for large applications); 13. Modelo de espalhamento e comportamento do fogo; 14. Modelo de áreas prioritárias para ações de manjo integrado do Fogo nos parques; 15. Modelo de conversão de mapas em kml para uso nos parques dos dados na interface Google Earth; 16. Mapas de probabilidade de fogo por simulação por meio de randomizações de cenários probabilísticos; 17. Modelo de dinâmica da vegetação pós-fogo; 18-interfaces amigáveis para o usuário final 18. Mapas de séries históricas de fogo nas unidades de conservação selecionadas; 19. Servidor de mapas online interativo; 20. Modelo de áreas sensíveis à ação do fogo. Subcomponent 2.a. – New Products 12/30/2019 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) 1. Mapa continental digital do Risco de Fogo, com dados observados, diário 2. Mapas continentais digitais do Risco de Fogo, previsão 01, 02 e 03 dias, diários 3. Gráficos Fogograma com previsão de Risco de Fogo para 3 dias, gerados a cada 06 horas 4. Gráficos e dados da análise de acertos do Risco de fogo para 05 regiões, diários 5. Mapas continentais digitais de Precipitação acumulada observada, 1, 5, 15 e 30 dias, diários 6. Mapas continentais digitais de Precipitação acumulada IMERG, 1, 5, 15 e 30 dias, diários 7. Mapas continentais digitais de Temperatura Máxima Média do Ar, 1, 5, 15, 30 dias, diários 8. Mapas continentais digitais de Umidade Relativa Mínima Média do Ar, 1, 5, 15, 30 dias, diários 9. Mapas continentais digitais de Vento Médio 1 dia e 5 dias, diários 10. Relatório diário automático com principais mapas de Risco de Fogo e das variáveis meteorológicas. 11. Boletim Mensal INFOQUEIMA IN00777164 ►Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected conservation areas (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 3.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The end target of this indicator will be revised to three (3). Comments: IN00777165 ►On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is published on INPE’s website. (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- No Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 Project management, monitoring and evaluation IN00777160 ►Govt institutions provided w/ capacity buildg to improve mgt of forest resources (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 10.00 19.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 18-Dec-2018 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 The following institutions are using Project's information and data: INPE, MCTIC, UFMG, UFG, ICMBio, IBAMA, FUNAI, SFB, MAPA, SENAR, On June 26 2019, the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) presented the FIP Monitoring project results at the MundoGEO#Connect 2019 conference. During a side event, INPE showed the project activities on forest fires prevention and forest cover monitoring in the Cerrado Biome. Monitoring Program Coordinator at INPE, Claudio Almeida, explained: “the information is relevant not only for supervision but also for the Brazilian science. Researchers can use the INPE data to measure impacts, including in the Comments: economic chain, which is important to country development.” For three days, INPE also presented conference visitors with the FIP Monitoring results. The Project also trained 159 specialists on vegetation cover and greenhouse gas emissions, forest fire risks, and forest fire spread risk. The courses were promoted by the National Institute for Space Research (INPE) from November 5 to 7, 2019 during the Drone Show and MundoGEO Connect PLUS 2019 event in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Meanwhile, INPE, one of the project’s technical partners, is going to apply the FIP Monitoring model to expand the monitoring deforestation in the other four Brazilian biomes. IN00777166 ►Share of users satisfied with data provided by the project. (Percentage, Custom) 12/30/2019 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 65.00 Date 30-Jul-2019 -- 17-Dec-2019 29-Mar-2021 Overall Comments IR During the Project restructuring held in July 2019, indicators have been refined to correct typos issues and be more specific and measurable, with no substantial changes in what they measure. The intermediate indicators end target completion date were extended to match the new proposed Grant Agreement Closing Date. Overall, the indicators are on track. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P143185 TF-A1787 Effective USD 9.25 9.25 0.00 4.79 4.46 52% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P143185 TF-A1787 Effective 28-Mar-2016 06-Apr-2016 22-Jun-2016 29-May-2020 29-Mar-2021 Cumulative Disbursements 12/30/2019 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 01-Aug-2019 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/30/2019 Page 8 of 8