The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Implementation Status & Results Mexico Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico (P100438) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Adaptation to Climate Change Impacts on the Coastal Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 6 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 24-Feb-2014 Wetlands in the Gulf of Mexico (P100438) Country: Mexico Approval FY: 2011 Product Line: Global Environment Project Region: LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 23-Nov-2010 Original Closing Date 31-Oct-2015 Planned Mid Term Review Date 10-Jul-2013 Last Archived ISR Date 09-Jul-2013 Effectiveness Date 07-Oct-2011 Revised Closing Date 31-Oct-2015 Actual Mid Term Review Date 28-May-2013 Global Environmental Objectives Global Environmental Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the project is to promote adaptation to the consequences of climate impacts in the coastal wetlands of the Gulf of Mexico, through the implementation of pilot measures that would provide information on the costs and benefits of alternative approaches to reduce their vulnerability. The project also seeks to assess the overall impacts of climate change on national water resource planning, including the identification of potential response options, with a focus on coastal wetlands and associated watersheds. The experience from the project pilots is intended to inform the government's future adaptation strategy and development programs in the Gulf region. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Design of Selected Adaptation Measures and Technical Coordination 0.74 Implementation of Pilot Adaptation Measures in Highly Vulnerable Wetlands 2.96 Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources Planning at a National Level and 0.50 Public Disclosure Copy in Coastal Wetlands including the Id Project Management 0.30 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of GEO Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Page 1 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Implementation Status Overview During this reporting period, there has been progress in that 8 key processes have been contracted (including the Ecological Zoning for Alvarado and for Tabasco, and the program for the repopulation of coral reefs in the Sian Ka’an Reserve). In addition, key staff at IMTA / INECC has been contracted such as the coastal / biological specialist, and the procurement specialist. These contracts reflect an increase in disbursements since the last review period. Public Disclosure Copy Nonetheless, there continue to be significant delays in implementation. The structure of the project is such that first the design for reforestation activities, infrastructure works, and land management plans has to be carried out, prior to implementing the specific works/investments. Thus, the project continues to suffer delays as some of the studies had to be redesigned and still have to be commissioned. The Bank carried out a mission in Mexico City, Mexico during October 15-18, 2013, as part of the mid-term review where key aspects for a project restructure have been identified. During the mission, the Bank team met with the new Director of INECC, the new project coordinator, and with the steering committee. The Bank recognized that the project continues to be a high priority for the country and expressed its commitment to this operation, while also expressing its concern about the cumulative delays in implementation which may hinder the implementation of pilot/investments. Since the mission, the Bank has met on a regular basis with the steering committee (INECC, IMTA, NAFIN, Hacienda, CONANP), in order to closely monitor project implementation, identify bottlenecks and mitigating measures. These meetings have also served to review the project indicators, define a realistic timeline for implementation, and review the disbursement estimates. Locations Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual Mexico Veracruz-Llave Estado de Veracruz-Llave ✔ Mexico Tabasco Estado de Tabasco ✔ Mexico Quintana Roo Estado de Quintana Roo ✔ Mexico Not Entered Punta Allen Not Entered Not Entered Punta Allen ✔ Mexico Not Entered Laguna Machona Mexico Not Entered Laguna del Carmen Not Entered Not Entered Laguna del Carmen ✔ Public Disclosure Copy Mexico Not Entered Laguna de Alvarado Not Entered Not Entered Laguna de Alvarado ✔ Mexico Not Entered El Pajonal Mexico Not Entered Laguna La Escondida Results Global Environmental Objective Indicators Page 2 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Design documents for pilot adaptation Number Value 0.00 0.00 6.00 measures that facilitate prompt implementation Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Public Disclosure Copy and include sustainability strategy as well Comments Pilots identified require Draft TORs prepared for the Design of four pilots finalized asmonitoring provisions surveys and studies to design reforestation efforts for (although the Pilot in adaptation measures Alvarado (Veracruz, PP2) and Tamaulipas will be canceled Carmen-Pajonal (Tabasco, upon request from State Gov.) PP3); for coastal infrastructure measures in PP2 and PP3; and coral restoration and hydrology restoration in el Playon (for Pilot Project 4, in Sian Ka'an, Quintana Roo). Only one study under implementation, while procurement process for three studies has been canceled and ToRs are currently under review and update. Three weltand management plans, a revised Text Value Limited availability of WMP This indicator will be modified At least one protected area management plan, and land (exception Sian Kaan); to reflect a change the WMP updated zoning regulations prepared existing ones do not consider development of WMP for based on CC information OET. relevant climate or expected impacts change data. At least three WMP prepared, and a protected area management plan revised Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments The project will not support Public Disclosure Copy Wetland mgt plans (WMP) but rather, an operational ecological zoning (OET) will be developed for the pilot sites: For Sian Ka’an, which is already an established PA, the PA plan will be updated according to the indicator. OET studies for Alvarado and Page 3 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Tabasco are currently under implementation with results to be expected by October 2014. New conservation plans, reforestation, coastal Text Value No adaptation Given implementation delays, Conservation Public Disclosure Copy stabilization, and coral repopulation measures in this indicator will not be met plans presented pilot sites witnin the current lifetime of for a target of the project, and will have to 15,000 ha to be modified accordingly. Municipal Councils; a target of 5,000 ha reforested with native species; a target of 3,000 m of coastal stabilization works finished; a target of genetically diverse temperatureresistant coral patches established in 6 locations (3,750 m2) achieved Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 Comments These products will be the result of the design studies, and they are not yet expected. Nevertheless, it is already known that reforestation and stabilization of coastal bars targets won’t be achieved as they are not Public Disclosure Copy realistic based on the project budget and implementation time. Therefore indicator targets will be modified as part of the proposed restructuring. Production and dissemination of practical Text Value 0 This indicator will be modified Guidance guidance document on cost and benefits of since the measures will not be document is adaptation measures in coastal wetlands as a implemented within the being basis for replication efforts current life of the project. disseminated Page 4 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 and serves as basis for replication efforts Public Disclosure Copy Date 23-Nov-2011 04-Feb-2014 Comments Costs and Benefits of Given the short time left and Costs and Benefits of adaptation measures in the lack of pilot measure adaptation measures in coastal wetlands to be implementation, a cost coastal wetlands finalized prepared estimate of pilots will be possible only ex-ante. Also benefits will have to be estimated ex-ante. Climate change impact scenarios developed Text Value No response IMTA is currently working on At least one for selected basins and for coastal wetlands options CC impact scenarios for the national water supporting knowledge base required to defined yet selected wetlands. resources mainstream CC into water resources and on cc impacts management wetland management and planning in national response water option resources identified that management considers CC impact scenarios Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2014 Comments IMTA is currently working on the development of the climate change scenarios. These will then be translated into hydrology impacts and could be considered for OETs Intermediate Results Indicators Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target At least 6 pilot adaptation measures with sound Text Value 0 This indicator will be modified Implemented technical design documents including analysis to reflect that given measures provide results Public Disclosure Copy of financial, economic, social and implementation delays, the on adaptation approaches in environmental aspects are ready for adaptation measures (pilot wetlands implementation investments) will not be able to be implemented within the life of the project. Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments In spite of this limitation, the project will aim to contribute to its design and possible implementation after a project extension. Likewise the project will be restructure to accommodate the implementation of small scale investments/adaptation measures that could be implemented within the life of the project with existing information. Modeling, generation of data, analysis, and Text Value Limited monitoring of pilot IMTA continues to work on Modeling, generation of access to information and long-term remote wetlands, limited monitoring developing modeling and data, analysis, and access to sensing (though the ALOS satellite) of CC data in pilot site areas issuing of data for analysis. information and long-term remote sensing (though the ALOS satellite) Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments IMTA, however, will use SPOT images, not ALOs as INECC already possess those images. Public Disclosure Copy Technical report on sustainability strategy for Text Value No adaptation pilots This indicator will be modified Sustainability strategy pilot adaptation measures since, the adaptation updated based on Project measures will not be results seeking cotinuation of implemented within the life of results the project. Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments Page 6 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Panuco: A target of 1,800 ha of Panuco- Text Value Lagoon la Escondida has Since this pilot has been Adaptation measures Altamira Wetlandsreforested with native limited adaptation efforts canceled, this indicator will be implemented on 1,800ha; cost species, and 1,000 m of landbarrier eliminated. and benefits of stabilization strengthened barrier assessed Public Disclosure Copy Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments This indicator corresponds to This cancellation will be pilot project 1 reflected in the project restructuring, and a reallocation of grant proceeds will also be undertaken. Coastal zoning regulation taking into account Text Value Coastal zoning does not take This indicator will not apply as Climate resilient coastal anticipated climate impacts submitted for Sub Type CC impacts into consideration the pilot side has been zoning regulation considered approval to deciding authorities and unsustainable practices cancelled for adoption by deciding Supplemental continue weakening authorities ecosystem's resilience Papaloapan: Alvarado Lagoon under Text Value Conservation management This indicator will be modified Conservation management management plan incorporating CC impacts plans do not take CC impacts to reflect that an ecological plan considered for adoption Implementation of buffer zone around the into consideration and zoning (OET) will be by decising authority lagoon including reforestation with a target of unsustainable land use developed instead of a 1,400 ha practices in the buffer zone management plan, and alsoto prevail indicate that the adaptation measures (reforestation) will not be undertaken within the life of the project. Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 Comments This indicator corresponds to The project will contribute to pilot project 2. develop a Land Zoning Plan, not a management plan as initially planned. This is mainly due to the fact that this Public Disclosure Copy area is not an established natural protected area and therefore there is no designates entity which could implement themanagement plan. An OET can be instrumentalized by the local municipality. Page 7 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Construction of a target length of 1,000 m pilot Text Value Surveys indicate active Given delays in launching key A target of 1,000m of the stabilization barrier to buffer extreme weather Sub Type erosion along coastal bar design studies, this activity stabilization barrier concluded events and future sea level rise will not be undertaken witnin Supplemental the life of the project. Public Disclosure Copy Implementation of buffer zone around the Text Value No buffer zone around the If current information exists at 50% of the buffer zone under lagoon including reforestation with a target of Sub Type Lagoon the local leval and at INECC/ recommended practices; a 1,400 ha CONANP, the buffer zone will target of 1,400 ha reforested Supplemental be implemented within the life with native species of the project. Tabasco: Land zoning regulations revamped Text Value Deforestation and land the OET for Tabasco is A revised land zoning including climate change considerations conversion are frequent expected to be finished by regulation prepared and August 2014 submitted for approval to deciding authorities Date 30-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments This indicator corresponds to The local land zoning plan pilot project 3. (OET) is currently developed and results are expected for late 2014. A target of 1,800 ha of the Carmen-Pajonal- Text Value Fragmentation betwen natural This indicator needs a A target of 1,800 ha Machona Wetlands reforested with native Sub Type vegetation revision, as the designation reforested with native species species for biological corridors will not take place within the Supplemental project life. A target of 1,000 m of Sandbars separating Text Value Sandbar in process of This indicator needs a Performance evaluation of thec oastal lagoons from the sea stabilized Sub Type destabilization revision, as the designation activities to strengthen will not take place within the sandbar conducted and Public Disclosure Copy Supplemental project life. recommendations shared among participanting agencies and stakeholders Sian Ka'an: Protected area monitoring system Text Value Monitoring of wetland does This activity is under CC data part of monitroing strengthened including climate change not include CC data implementation and delivery program of the wetland parameters is expected within a month. Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Page 8 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Comments This indicator corresponds to The consultant has been pilot project 4. hired and the final product will be delivered by February 2014. Public Disclosure Copy Protected area management plan revised to Text Value Protected area management Based on the monitoring First results of the revised include climate change considerations Sub Type plan does not include CC data system, it is expected that the management plan collected PA will incorporate this and reported Supplemental information into the Mgt Plan to reflect CC considerations. A target of repopulating genetically diverse Text Value Repopulation not included in This indicator will have to be A target of genetically diverse temperature-resistant coral genotypes in six Sub Type coral reef conservation adjusted. Furtheremore, temperature-resistant coral areas of 25m x 25 m (3,750 m2) in selected programs activities will also include the patches established in 6 Supplemental locations reforestation of mangroves locations (3,750 km2) within the PA. In addition, The respective consultancy has been published but could not be hired to that moment as there were serious doubts aboutthe technical capacity of the consultancy firms which applied for the analytical work, therefore a short list could not be established. A new procurement process based on updated ToR will be launched soon. Public Disclosure Copy Component 3: Climate change impact Text Value National policies do not yet Work is under way. At least one national water scenarios developed for national water incorporate cc impacts on resources resources and for coastal wetlands including water availability managementresponse option identification of response options identified that considers CC impact scenarios Date 23-Nov-2010 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments Page 9 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Component 4: Project management is rated Text Value Project management under Final evaluation finds the satisfactory. this component has been project management improving, but capacity satisfactory. remains low at IMTA and Public Disclosure Copy INECC Date 04-Feb-2014 30-Oct-2015 Comments Project management has slightly improved but remedial actions are still necessary and have been agreed to assure project implementation. Data on Financial Performance (as of 20-Dec-2013) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P100438 TF-96681 Effective 10-May-2011 11-May-2011 07-Oct-2011 31-Oct-2015 31-Oct-2015 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P100438 TF-96681 Effective USD 4.50 4.50 0.00 0.20 4.30 5.00 Disbursement Graph Public Disclosure Copy Page 10 of 11 The World Bank Report No: ISR13647 Key Decisions Regarding Implementation The project continues to be delayed although remedies are being implemented. As a result, a project restructuring will be undertaken in the upcoming months. Public Disclosure Copy Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 11 of 11