Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Report for Energy Project in : Naghlu Hydropower Rehabilitation Project1 1 This is the output report from applying the World Bank Group's Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Project Level Tool(Global website: climatescreeningtools.worldbank.org; World Bank users: wbclimatescreeningtools.worldbank.org). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed from applying this tool are those of the individual that applied the tool and should be in no way attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated institutions, to the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the information included in the screening and this associated output report and accepts no liability for any consequence of its use. 1/13 1. Introduction Building resilience to climate and geophysical hazards is a vital step in the fight against poverty and for sustainable development. Screening for risks from these hazards improves the likelihood and longevity of a project’s success. The project level Climate and Disaster Risks Screening Tool provides due diligence on climate and disaster risks at an early concept stage. The tool uses an exposure – sensitivity –adaptive capacity framework to consider and characterize risks from climate and geophysical hazards, based on key components of a project and its broader development context (Annex 1). This report summarizes the results of the screening process for the "Naghlu Hydropower Rehabilitation Project/, which was applied to the following selected sub-sectors/components: Oil, Gas and Coal Mining Thermal Power Generation Hydropower Other Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency in Heat and Power & End Use Transmission and Distribution of Electricity The potential risks flagged in this report were identified through four screening stages by connecting information on climate and geophysical hazards exposure with the user’s subject matter expertise and understanding of the project components and sensitivity to rate the impacts. The tool does not provide detailed risk assessments, rather it flags risks to inform consultations, enhance dialogue with local and other experts, and define further analytical work at the project location. This early stage due diligence can be used to strengthen the consideration of climate and disaster considerations in key components of the project design, including the physical (e.g., transmission lines, plants/facilities etc.) and non-physical aspects (e.g., capacity building of energy managers, institutional strengthening, early warning systems, maintenance schedules, etc.). The broader sectoral (e.g., backups and system redundancy in place, strategic planning that considers how climate and geophysical hazards may affect key assets, system reliability, and demand, etc.) and development context conditions (e.g., influence on energy demand from population growth,legal enforcement of proper building codes and zoning regulations, etc.), could help modulate the risks to the delivery of the outcome/service level. The results of the screening are presented below, with supporting narrative to guide their interpretation. 2/13 2. Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Results Summary 2.1 Project Information Summary Table 1 below provides key project information including the location and key project development objectives. This information is provided by the task team. The activities within the components are important as their sensitivity to the climate and geophysical hazards will determine the level of potential impact from these hazards. Table 1: Project Information Project Information Title Naghlu Hydropower Rehabilitation Project Number P132944 Region Country Type of Assessment Energy Projects Purpose of Screening Other () Funding Source other Keywords Hydropower, Rehabilitation Brief Description of Project or The Project Development Objective (PDO) is to improve dam safety and to Goals/ Objectives increase the supply of electricity at the Naghlu HydropowerPlant. Sub Sectors Hydropower, Transmission and Distribution of Electricity Location Naghlu Hydropower Station. Sorobi District, Kabul, Afghanistan GPS Coordinates Latitude= 34.641, Longitude= 69.717 The project includes rehabilitation of Generator#1 in the power house, construction of warehouses and conducting dam safety audit to improve dam Hydropower safety and a substation in project area.The assets are: generator and turbine, spare parts, transmission and distribution systems and substation, warehouse. The project will invest in a distribution system to increase electricity supply to neighbor area. Specifically, key physical investments of the project include: Transmission and construction. erection and testing of a 110/20KV substation. The project will Distribution of Electricity invest in a transmission and distribution system to increase electricity access between to neighbor area. Specifically, key physical investments of the project include: Construction, erection and testing of 110/20 KV substation. Fully operation of power house with additional 25MW through Rehabilitation of Dam Unit#1. Reducing number of unplanned outages due to deficiency of Outcome / Service Delivery plant. Improvement of dam operations and safety and electrification of villages immediate vicinity of the dam. 3/13 * Please note that this is based on user inputs and the coverage may not be comprehensive. 2.2 Summary of Exposure to Climate and Geophysical Hazards Table 2 presents a summary description of exposure to climate and geophysical hazards at the project location for the Historical/Current and Future time frames1. Exposure to climate hazards is evaluated in two timeframes, because past records are not necessarily indicative of future conditions. The descriptions provide a summary of the key characteristics and some indication of the trends in exposure from each hazard, drawing on global, quality controlled data sets from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP). It is useful, for example to understand the temperature range and the rate of annual or decadal increase in a region; or precipitation patterns for historical and future time frames and seasonality shifts. Understanding the trends of hazards is important as they act individually and collectively on components/sub-sectors of the project. Because geophysical hazards (such as earthquakes, tsunamis, landslides, and volcano eruptions) do not have associated future projections, exposure for those hazards is assessed only in the Historical/Current timeframe. Table 2: Summary of Exposure to Climate and Geophysical Hazards at Project Location TIME HAZARD DESCRIPTION OF HAZARDS FOR YOUR LOCATION FRAME Average annual precipitation has decreased since 1960 with an average rate of decrease of 0.5 Current mm per month per decade. Extreme Precipitation Annual precipitation projections from the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel and Flooding on Climate Change indicate that there will be little or no change in precipitation over Afghanistan Future throughout the 21st century. And Projections for maximum 1- and 5-day rainfall indicate small increases in every season but March through May. Between 2000 and 2003, over 4 million Afghans were affected by this drought. As most of the population (85%) relies on agriculture for their livelihood, droughts pose a serious threat to Current livelihoods, income, and poverty reduction efforts. No information is available on recent trends in Drought the frequency and severity of droughts. Drought cycle within Afghanistan in recent years has tended to occur more frequently and The Future projections do not clearly indicate whether the project location will be more or less exposed to drought in future The earthquakes being the second most frequent hazards) .Recently A 7.5 magnitude that hit Pakistan and Afghanistan and occurred on the Hindu Kush, located some 45 miles south of Earthquake Current Faizabad (east of Afghanistan) in October 2015 and has caused massive damage to life and property. Landslides are common in eastern Afghanistan as snow begins to melt during the spring months. Deforestation has led to an increase in the number of landslides annually. On 23 April 2015, a landslide occurred in Badakhshan Province. Around 100 houses were destroyed and 52 people Landslide Current were killed by the landslide. A second landslide occurred on 26 April, displacing 120 families. During the earthquakes, the fatalities were caused by secondary affects such as landslides, rockslides, mudflows and avalanches. Transmission Lines passed through mountains from dam to city may affected during landslides. No report for the project area. 1 The Future time frame is based on changes projected to occur between the 1980-1999 average and a future average. This future average is most likely the 2040-2059 average (i.e., the default in the Climate Change Knowledge Portal - CCKP). Users can choose to select another time frame, or choose to use national/local data sets, but if so, this should be reflected in the notes section of the tool (and summarized in Annex 2). The CCKP draws on global, quality-controlled datasets and is continually updated as new data become available. In some cases, the CCKP is supplemented with other sources of information. For more detail on the data used in this step, please refer to the Data Annex. Climate Change Knowledge Portal (http://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org). 4/13 HAZARD TIME FRAME DESCRIPTION OF HAZARDS FOR YOUR LOCATION Not Exposed Slightly Exposed Moderately Exposed Highly Exposed Insufficient No Potential Impact Low Potential Impact Moderate Potential Impact High Potential Impact Understanding No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk Please note that the colors shown in Table 2 are only for exposure at the project's location. Overall risk to project's outcome/service delivery, taking into account sensitivity of physical investments and adaptive capacity(non-physical components and development context), is depicted in Tables 3A and 3B. 5/13 2.3 Summary of Overall Project Risk Tables 3A and 3B present the same results, with Table 3A highlighting the impact ratings on the project’s components/subsectors, and the overall risk to the outcome/service level for both Historical/Current and Future time frames. Table 3B draws attention to how the climate impacts and risks shift from the Historical/Current to the Future time frame. The ratings are derived on the basis of the hazard information, subject matter expertise, contextual understanding of the project, and modulated on the basis of adaptive capacity and the larger development context of the energy sector and country. The results indicate what components are most at risk. The actual ratings themselves, while instructive, should inform further consultations, dialogue, and future planning processes. Keep in mind that the greatest value of the tool is that it provides a structured and systematic process for understanding climate and disaster risks. 2.3.1 Results Summary - by Component / Subsector Table 3A provides a characterization of risks caused by climate and geophysical hazard on project subsector/components for both Historical/Current and Future time frames. The results indicate where risks may exist within one or multiple components and where further work may be required to further understand these climate and geophysical risks. An ongoing process of monitoring risks, refining climate and other information, and regular impact assessment may also be appropriate. The potential impact on key components due to exposure from hazards is modulated by the project's non-physical components (enabling and capacity building activities). The right kind of capacity building measures could increase preparedness and longer-term resilience and reduce the risks. An understanding of larger sector and development context with respect to key modulating factors helps to assess the climate risks in terms of adaptive capacity.. For example, in the energy sector, a significant system redundancy may help reduce risks; while population growth and increasing peak demand may aggravate the risks. Table 3A: Results Summary - by Component / Subsector 6/13 Project Components Development Context Transmission and Non-Physical Outcome / Hazard Broader Location Hydropower Distribution Components Energy Sector Service Delivery Context(Overall) of (Overall) Electricity Time Frame Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Current Future Extreme Feasibility/Design Temperature Studies Significantly Reduces Impact Life expectancy Extreme Insufficient Precipitation understanding and Flooding Operations Support Political instability Drought Slightly Reduces Impact Insufficient understanding Sea Level Slightly Reduces N/A N/A Impact Rise Capacity Building, Population growth Technical Insufficient Storm Surge N/A N/A Assistance, and understanding Outreach Strong Slightly Reduces Impact Overall Winds Insufficient understanding Earthquake Overall Significantly Reduces Impact Landslide 7/13 2.3.2 Results Summary by Time-Frame The results in Table 3B display the results by time frame. Potential impacts to the components are evaluated separately for the Historical/Current and Future time frames to capture changes in the exposure from climate hazards over time. For example, recent trends may indicate that temperatures are rising in such a way that they may make cooling of electricity generation facilities difficult, significantly escalating the impact on energy production over time. For investments with long operational lifetimes, such as physical infrastructure, considering future climate variability and change is critical to avoid “locking in” designs and features that are only suited to current climate. For example, coastal energy infrastructure may be more vulnerable if it is located in areas that will be more exposed to sea level rise, storm surge, and coastal flooding in the future, or if the infrastructure is not designed to withstand more frequent or severe flooding. Table 3B: Results Summary - by Time Frame Time Current Future Frame Project Context Development Context Project Context Development Context Transmi Transmi- - ssion - ssion- and - Non- Outcome and- Non- Outcome Hazard Broader / Service Broader / Service Locat- Hydropo Distrib Physical Energy Hydropo- Distrib- Physical Energy Context Delivery Location Context Delivery ion - wer - ution - Components Sector wer ution- Components Sector (Overall) (Overall) of - (Overall) of- (Overall) Electri - Electri- city city Extreme Feasibility/Design Feasibility/Design Temperature Studies Studies Life Life Significantly Significantly Extreme Reduces Impact expectancy Reduces Impact expectancy Insufficient Insufficient Precipitation understanding understanding and Operations Operations Flooding Support Support Political Political Slightly Reduces Slightly Reduces Drought Impact instability Impact instability Insufficient Insufficient Slightly understanding Slightly understanding Sea Reduces Reduces Capacity Capacity Level N/A Impact N/A Impact Building, Building, Rise Population Population Technical Technical growth growth Storm Assistance, and Assistance, and N/A Insufficient N/A Insufficient Surge Outreach understanding Outreach understanding Slightly Reduces Slightly Reduces Strong Impact Impact Winds Overall Overall Insufficient Insufficient Overall understanding Overall understanding Earthquake Significantly Significantly Reduces Impact Reduces Impact Landslide Not Exposed Slightly Exposed Moderately Exposed Highly Exposed Insufficient No Potential Impact Low Potential Impact Moderate Potential Impact High Potential Impact Understanding No Risk Low Risk Moderate Risk High Risk 8/13 2.4 Key Drivers of Risks Based on the results above, Table 4 highlights the key drivers of risk for each project component/subsector ratings, in terms of hazards that are likely to pose the greatest challenge. The ratings for the potential impact for each component/subsector reflect the aggregate rating across multiple hazards, drawing on all of the exposure information and their own expert judgment. For example, high temperature may reduce the efficiency of major equipment and cooling in oil, gas, and coal mining, whereas flooding may cause physical damage to mining, drilling, and processing facilities. Specific consideration should be given to those hazards which have high ratings, or are moving from moderate to high ratings over time. For example, sea-level rise may not be a key risk driver in the Historical/Current time frame; but may emerge as a key driver across multiple sectors in the future time frame. Understanding which hazards are key drivers may help flag follow-on work to manage climate risks within the design and delivery of the project. Table 4: Key Drivers of Risk Historical/Current Drivers Future Drivers Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Hazards and Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Location Drought Transmission and Distribution of Electricity- Landslide Hydropower-Extreme Precipitation Transmission and Distribution of Electricity- and Flooding Physical Landslide Components Hydropower-Drought Hydropower-Extreme Precipitation and Flooding Outcome / Service * * Delivery Moderate Key: High Risk Risk * If a cell is blank it implies there is 'No high or moderate risks' identified for this aspect of the project. q Overall, the Non-physical Components : Significantly Reduces Impact q The Energy Sector : Slightly Reduces Impact q The Broader Development Context : Insufficient understanding 9/13 3. Next Steps By understanding which of your energy project components is most at risk from climate change and other natural hazards on the basis of the screening, you can begin to take measures to avoid their impacts by: q Enhancing the consideration of climate and disaster risks early in the design stage of the project. q Using your risk screening analysis to inform follow-up feasibility studies and technical assessments. q Encourage local stakeholder consultations and dialogue to enhance resilience measures and overall success of the project. Table 5A provides some general guidance based on the risk ratings for the Outcome/Service Delivery, and Table 5B lists some climate risk management measures for your consideration. Visit the "Next steps" page of the tool on the website for guidance and a list of useful resources. Note: Please recall that that this is a high-level due diligence tool, and the characterization of risks should be complemented with more detailed work. Table 5A: General Guidance Based on Risk Ratings for Outcome/Service Delivery Gather more information to improve your understanding of climate and geophysical Insufficient hazards Understanding and their relationship to your project. If you are confident that climate and geophysical hazards pose no risk to the project, continue with project development. However, keep No Risk in mind that this is a high-level risk screening at an early stage of project development. Therefore, you are encouraged to monitor the level of climate and geophysical risks to the project as it is developed and implemented. If you are confident that climate and geophysical hazards pose low risk to the project, continue with project development. However, keep in mind that this is a high-level risk screening at an early stage of project development. Therefore, you are encouraged to Low Risk monitor the level of climate and geophysical risks to the project as it is developed and implemented. You may also consider gathering additional information to increase your level of confidence in your rating. For areas of Moderate Risk, you are encouraged to build on this screening through additional studies, consultation, and dialogue. This initial screening may be Moderate Risk supplemented with a more detailed risk assessment to better understand the nature of the risk to the project. For areas of High Risk, you are strongly encouraged to conduct a more detailed risk High Risk assessment and to explore measures to manage or reduce those risks. Table 5B: Types of Climate Risk Management Measures for typical Energy Projects 10/13 CATEGORY PROS CONS EXAMPLES Accommodate and • Flexible • Temporary solution • Increase repair and maintenance Manage • Typically low-cost • Can be insufficient in budgets • Useful when risk is preventing losses • Consider future fuel and low, but projected to generation demands and costs in rise in the future planning • Incentivize demand-side management • Conduct monitoring through data collection and analysis Protect and Harden • Can be used for • High cost • Upgrade existing cooling existing and new assets • Inflexible systems • Responds to • Effectiveness may • Add reinforcements to walls and immediate risks decrease over time roofs • Build dikes to contain flooding • Incorporate structural improvements to transmission • Increase drainage of energy facilities Retreat and Relocate • Long-term solution • High cost • Integrate sea level rise • Responds to • Inflexible projections and storm surge in immediate risk coastal siting • Move infrastructure further inland or on higher ground 11/13 Annex 1: Tool Approach Tool Approach The framework below describes the approach taken to screen the project. Climate and natural hazards information used to screen the project is most likely obtained from the World Bank's Climate Change Knowledge Portal, which houses numerous global data sets with historical records and future projections as well as country-specific adaptation profiles. Figure A1: Project Level Climate and Disaster Risk Screening Tool: Approach for Energy projects 12/13 Annex 2: Notes Table A2-1 summarizes the sub-national locations of high risk noted during the assessment, if the user entered these sub-national locations. Table A2-2 summarizes all the notes entered by user for each section while completing the assessment, if the user elected to enter notes. These notes can help shed light on specific ratings as well as considerations and limitations of the user's expertise. Table A2-2 Summary of Comments by Section Section Notes Dam Safety Audit Component will look at the measures for Non-Physical increasing dam safety. Also study flood routing through Naghlu Feasibility/Design Studies Components Dam to Surobi Dam, including adequacy of its spilling arrangements. Broader Development Overall Need for expert Judgment Context 13/13