80251 July 2013 - Number 102 IMPROVING THE RELIABILITY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE SERVICES IN YEMEN Lia Carol Sieghart and David Rogers1 compared with an average of US$2,321 for lower middle-income countries. In addition to significant development challenges, Yemen is particularly vulnerable to climate change. Rainfall is erratic and variable, a situation made worse by high evapotranspiration rates. Based on current high water consumption for irrigation and water supplies, it is expected that groundwater reserves will be nearly exhausted in next few decades. Flash floods and droughts are frequent hazards displacing thousands, causing loss of life and significant damage to assets and livelihoods. The floods of 2008, for example, killed 180 people, displaced 10,000 and caused damage and losses to infrastructure, shelter, and livelihoods equivalent to US$1,638 million amounting to 6% of Yemen’s GDP2. Sustainable social and economic development in Yemen depends on knowledge of climate variability and change, and reliable and actionable meteorological and Picture courtesy: Lia Sieghart hydrological forecasts and warnings. Upgrading weather, climate and water Introduction: The Republic of Yemen, situated information will reduce vulnerabilities to on the southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, natural hazards and increase food and water is one of the poorest countries in the world. The security. country has a GNI per capita of US$1,070 (2010) Agricultural Challenges: Yemen is particularly 1 Lia Carol Sieghart, Senior Environmental Specialist, reliant on its natural resources outside the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Sustainable extractive industries. Agriculture plays a Development Department, The World Bank and David leading role in Yemen’s economy and employs Rogers, Health and Climate Foundation. This Quick Note was cleared by Charles Cormier, Sector more than half of the labor force. It also Manager, MNSSD and Wael Zakout, Country Manager. accounts for more than 90 percent of all water The World Bank task team includes: Lia Sieghart (Task use. Unlike most of the rest of the world, Team Leader), Vladimir Tsirkunov, David Rogers, Suiko Yoshijima, Jean-Francois Barres, Angela Walker Gary, Hassine Hedda, Edith Ruguru Mwenda, Samira Al-Harithi, 2 Saleh Qasem Al-Manary, Moad Alrubaidi, Abdoul-Wahab Government of Yemen (2009). Damage, Loss and Needs Seyni, Matthieu Bonvoisin, Andrea Zanon, Naif Abu- Assessment, October 2008 Tropical Storm and Floods, Lohom. Salenna Prince, Marie A. F. How Yew Kin and Hadramout and Al-Mahara., Republic of Yemen. Joint Mark Njore. Assessment of the Government of Yemen, World Bank, UNISDR and IFRC, supported by GFDRR. economic dependence on agriculture is observations and the National Water Resources growing because of reduced growth in the Authority (NWRA) is responsible for manufacturing and service sectors since 2000. hydrological observations. The Environmental Half of agricultural land is rain-fed while 40 Protection Authority (EPA) also plays a role in percent relies on rapidly depleting climate services and needs to increase its groundwater resources. capability to monitor air quality. Agriculture is most vulnerable to flood risk and Building Climate Resilience: This requires has incurred the highest level of losses in several things: (i) reliable monitoring and physical assets3. In the 2008 flood, losses in prediction of rainfall and temperature to help agriculture were nearly 64 percent of total assess drought frequency, (ii) better damages4. Floods are the most recurrent natural management of water resources, (iii) increase disaster in Yemen causing significant economic agricultural productivity and minimize climate- damage and losses. Reducing and managing sensitive diseases; (iv) more accurate and flood and drought risk through more reliable timely forecasts and warnings of extreme forecasts to improve decision-making would hydro-meteorological events to reduce threats help build resilience of the agriculture sector to to lives, livelihoods and property; and (v) climate change. climate monitoring, including marine observations to contribute to understanding the impact of climate change on habitats, biodiversity and the coastal zone. The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR): Through the PPCR, Yemen aims to better manage water resources, increasing agricultural productivity and reducing the risk of climate-sensitive diseases. This will be done by improving the monitoring and assessment of climate variability and change and providing targeted and reliable information for decision making. Significant social and economic benefits are expected by managing risk in weather-related disasters, which disproportionately affect the poor and vulnerable. Key expected improvements include: A framework for better climate information: A Picture courtesy: Lia Sieghart framework for National Climate Services will link Yemen to the Global Framework of Weather, Climate and Water Services: The Climate Services – an initiative of the World Civil Aviation and Meteorological Authority / Meteorological Organization to improve the Yemen Meteorological Service (CAMA/YMS) is reliability and use of short- medium and long- the primary source of weather and climate range climate information everywhere. information in Yemen. In addition, the Ministry of Agriculture and Irrigation (MAI) is Upgraded Weather and hydrological forecasts and responsible for agro-meteorological warnings: Upgrading the existing meteorological and hydrological observing networks and forecasting systems will improve 3 Source: Yemen Strategic Program for Climate Resilience the reliability, timeliness and accuracy of (SPCR 2011). Available online: weather and flood forecasts and warnings https://www.climateinvestmentfunds.org/cifnet/?q=coun resulting in better weather, climate and water try/yemen 4 Ibid. services. July 2013 · Number 102· 2 Enhanced Decision-making: Better decision- Component B - Modernizing and Expanding making and planning in key vulnerable water Yemen’s Hydro-meteorological and Environmental resources dependent sectors, particularly Monitoring Networks: The project aims to ensure agriculture is expected. Stronger partnerships that these networks are interoperable between between the providers and users of weather, CAMA/YMS, MAI, NWRA and the climate and water information through development authorities. This will enable the dedicated climate working groups and existing efficient and timely transmission of community organizations will ensure better information, which is essential for management uptake and use of weather, climate and water of disaster risks and agriculture and water information. resources. Collection and timely communication of high-quality data is the foundation of reliable weather forecasts and warnings as well as monthly and longer-term climate outlooks. The modernization of the observing networks includes rehabilitating and extending the MAI and NWRA agrometeorological and hydro-meteorological networks; extending the CAMA/YMS weather and climate surface and upper air network, and installing a Doppler weather radar, which will be used for enhanced precipitation measurement, and severe weather and flood forecasting. The project will also modernize the communication and ICT systems to transmit Picture courtesy: Anwar Noaman data more efficiently. The component also includes the design and pilot operation of an Better Intra-Government Coordination: Improving environmental monitoring system to be coordination and information sharing between operated by the EPA. all of agencies responsible for the collection of climate data, analysis and decision-support will Component C - Enhancing Service Delivery: This also lead to better informed decisions. will be achieved by systematically upgrading the weather, climate and water-related end-to- Project Components: The project has four end services provided to all agencies, components including institutional communities and individuals. In particular, it strengthening, modernization of observing and will extend the forecasting, analysis and service forecasting systems, enhancing the delivery of delivery capabilities of CAMA/YMS to provide services, and PPCR program management and guidance to agriculture, water resources and knowledge sharing. irrigation, disaster risk management (DRM), media, civil aviation, health and renewable Component A - Institutional Strengthening and energy. It will also provide demographic- Capacity Building: This will improve climate specific services where differentiated resilience in Yemen by strengthening weather, information is targeted to specific vulnerable climate and water services that meet groups and individuals. stakeholders’ needs. The aim is to ensure the institutional, staffing and financial  Gender Focus: The project is particularly sustainability of the key service providers sensitive to the needs of women – given (CAMA/YMS, MAI and NWRA). This includes their role in the community. Information revising and updating institutional strategies, specific to rural women will be developed revising and adopting legal frameworks and and emphasized because of their high introducing standard operating procedures. vulnerability in livelihood development. Training will build capacity by providing access to new skills and opportunities within  Early Warning Systems: Given the each of the participating organizations. importance of warning systems for flash July 2013 · Number 102· 3 floods – two pilots will focus on maintenance in the amount of up to US$1.5 implementing end-to-end early warning million annually. This is a major step forward systems developed together by in the modernization of National CAMA/YMS, MAI, NWRA and Civil Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Defense Authority, on behalf of the wider disaster risk management community, and Gender Smart Management Framework: Greater in consultation with other DRM efforts. equality in the workplace is a hallmark of PPCR This component will also help projects. One of the steps included the CAMA/YMS, MAI and NWRA improve Government of Yemen agreeing to second and the quality of their services to their various finance female technical specialists to the PPCR stakeholders. Program Coordination Unit where they will benefit from additional technical training as Component D - Oversight of the PPCR well as have the opportunity to make a implementation: This component will include significant contribution to the overall success of synthesizing the main results achieved by the program. The results will be closely investments under the PPCR. Knowledge monitored by a women’s NGO in cooperation sharing activities will be carried on all PPCR with the Environment and Women Unit at investments to increase public awareness of EPA. climate variability and change and its impact on people’s day-to-day activities. This Data Sharing: Data sharing between component will also guide the initial government departments has been a perennial development of the climate database problem in Yemen and has slowed the management system by establishing development of services that depend on intra- procedures to ensure open access to climate government cooperation. However, in the information by all users. earliest stages of PPCR’s development, all of the parties signed a Memorandum of  Public education and outreach activities will be Understanding committing to a data sharing geared towards improving information policy that will significantly enhance their access and increasing awareness of the capacity to exchange data and deliver reliable challenges caused by climate change. weather, climate and water services. Particular attention will be given to communities, which need to take preparatory action to mitigate adverse Contact MNA K&L: Gerard A. Byam, Director, Strategy and consequences of the climate and hydro- Operations. MENA Region, The World Bank meteorological hazards. The goals are to Preeti S. Ahuja, Manager, MNADE improve community response to flood warnings, improve management of surface Regional Quick Notes Team: water resources, enhance food security, Omer Karasapan, and Roby Fields Tel #: (202) 473 8177 improve health outcomes, improve climate- The MNA Quick Notes are intended to summarize resilient coastal zone management, and lessons learned from MNA and other Bank provide better rural livelihoods. Knowledge and Learning activities. The Notes do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank, its Other Key Issues Addressed by the PPCR: board or its member countries. Operations and Maintenance: A major issue in all hydro-meteorological modernization programs is how to sustain the financing of operating and maintaining new equipment. Without additional support, new systems quickly fall into disrepair and disuse. In Yemen, the Government recognized that this has been a major issue in past projects and made a commitment to support operations and July 2013 · Number 102· 4