98223 Turn Down Heat the Confronting the New Climate Normal THE CLIMATE CHALLENGE FOR THE FORESTS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION WE ARE HEADING TOWARDS A MUCH HARSHER CLIMATE In a sobering assessment Turn Down the Heat: Confronting the New Climate Normal documents that if no further action is taken, there is a 40% chance to exceed 4 degrees Celsius (ºC) warming before 2100— within our children’s and grandchildren’s lifetime. It paints a grim picture of what that world will look like. As weather extremes become the new normal and risks to food, water and energy security increase, everyone will feel the impact—particularly the poor. Prepared in collaboration with the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and launched by the World Bank Group in November 2014, the report reviews the latest scientific evidence on climate change risks to development. The third in the Turn Down the Heat series, this report examines climate scenarios in three regions, Latin America and the Caribbean, the Middle East and North Africa and Europe and Central Asia, including the prospects and implications for the forests of the Russian Federation in that challenging climate regime. But the good news is that this future does not have to be our destiny. Solutions exist. First we have to accept the reality of what scientists are telling us and to truly understand that we are the last generation that can save the planet. It will require a concerted effort and change in every aspect of human life—substantial technological, economic, institutional and behavioral change. And most of all, it will require leadership at every level of society. FACING THE NEW CLIMATE NORMAL THE GLOBAL FUTURE—4°C AND CLIMBING We are experiencing human-induced climate change at a rate unprecedented in human history. Despite efforts until now, global greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise unabated. Scientists and THE REALITY TODAY researchers have concluded that with ‘business as usual’ we will hit that Weather extremes are already affecting people everywhere, damaging new climate regime—4°C or even higher—before 2100, with alarming crops and coastlines and putting livelihoods at risk. consequences: • The world is already 0.8°C above pre-industrial times, with observed • Unprecedented heat extremes becoming more frequent; climate change impacts such as sea-level rise (up 19 centimeters • Changes in rainfall patterns impacting water availability; between 1901 and 2010), disappearing glaciers, and extreme weather • Reduced crop yields with resulting rising food security concerns; events on the rise; • Accelerated loss of biodiversity and species extinction; • Losses from extreme weather events increased from US$50 billion a year in the 1980s to just under $200 billion over the last decade; • Prospects of ocean acidification affecting marine ecosystems, fisheries and tourism; • Warming of close to 1.5°C above pre-industrial times is already locked into the Earth’s climate system because of past and projected • Sea level rise continuing for centuries, possibly rising two meters for greenhouse gas emissions (such as carbon dioxide and methane). It every degree of warming; means that climate change impacts including heat-waves, droughts, • The West Antarctic Ice Sheet dislodging adding to abrupt sea level rise; storms and other weather extremes may be unavoidable; • Carbon sinks like forests and permafrost holding methane becoming • To underscore this data, scientists announced that 2014 was the hottest greenhouse gas emitters that could be disastrous game-changers for year in recorded history. the climate of the planet. THE CLIMATE RISK FOR RISING TO THE CLIMATE RUSSIA’S FORESTS CHANGE CHALLENGE It is no exaggeration to say that Russia’s climate risks are the world’s That 4°C degree or higher scenario does not have to be the future for climate risks. The future health of Russia’s forests may help determine how Russia or the world. With a concerted effort, we can turn down the heat. the world fares with climate change. Many of the worst projected climate impacts outlined in Turn Down the Heat could be avoided by holding warming below 2°C. In the meantime, The Russian Federation has the largest forest area in the world—20% of efforts to build resilience and manage risks must also redouble to cope the global total, and its forests play an important role in the global carbon with already locked-in climate change over the coming decades. cycle. Russian forests account for about one-third of the net annual carbon accumulation in all forests worldwide. Russia holds the largest terrestrial Russia is already taking action in that regard. Russian forests today are at carbon pool associated with boreal forests that currently provide significant high risk from forest fires. Official data shows that on average there are carbon-sequestration service to Russia and other countries. As such, the 24,000 forest fires annually affecting 1.4 million hectares of forest, and future of global climate will be largely influenced by Russia’s land-use releasing up to more than 230 million tons of carbon a year into the policies and management practices. atmosphere. Most of those fires are human-caused. More broadly, there has been a steady increase over the past 40 years in damaged forest areas That makes the sustainable and far-sighted management of Russian forest and lost forest resources due to fires, pests and disease. Total damaged ecosystems of critical global importance. If not managed properly, major forest area in 2010 totaled about 7.2 million hectares. carbon and methane stocks now held in trees and permafrost could be released into the atmosphere. The unspoken fear is that the release of those Since 2013, the World Bank has been working with the Russian vast stores of carbon and methane could create a tipping point for the Government on implementing the $121.3 million Forest Fire Response world’s climate with disastrous consequences. Project. The project is working to improve forest fire prevention and suppression in selected forest ecosystems and targeted protected areas as In a 4°C world: well as to enhance forest management in pilot regions. Lower carbon • Changing climatic conditions would likely lead to a northward shift emissions because of prevented or localized fires and higher carbon of the tree line while forests would give way to steppe ecosystems at sequestration through improved silviculture and forest growth are of direct lower latitudes. benefit to the Russian economy and global climate change mitigation. • There could be significant impact on timber harvest, and even more so Given their vulnerability to disturbances like fire, Russia’s forests will when increased prevalence of pests, diseases and fire due to climate benefit from another initiative. The Government of the Russian Federation change is taken into account. The number of days with high fire works with the World Bank on implementing the $140 million Second risk—the single most important disturbance today—could increase by National Hydromet Modernization Project. This initiative supports 20–30 days. Russia’s Hydromet service in increasing the accuracy of forecasts provided • Climate change could also trigger large-scale changes with predicted to the Russian people and economy. It is modernizing key elements of global repercussions, such as: Roshydromet’s technical base and enhancing information systems for •• Methane emissions from thawing permafrost could increase by weather, climate and hydrological forecasting. Primary beneficiaries of the 20–30% in just a 2°C warmer world, risking infrastructure stability project are the regional and municipal governments, weather-, water-, and and releasing a potent greenhouse gas into the atmosphere. climate-dependent economic sectors such as emergency, disaster reduction/civil protection, water resources management, civil aviation and •• As the boreal forest would expand onto tundra, the larger darker transport, agriculture, health, energy, forestry, communal services, tourism area of forest would trap more heat, potentially adding to faster and maritime planning. temperature increase. “ Our response to the challenge of climate change will define the legacy of our generation. The stakes have never been higher. ” Dr. Jim Yong Kim, President, World Bank Group www.worldbank.org/climatechange