The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA | Russian Federation | Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2014 | Seq No: 14 | ARCHIVED on 24-Jun-2019 | ISR37261 | Implementing Agencies: RosHydromet, Government of the Russian Federation Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 17-Sep-2013 Effectiveness Date: 08-May-2014 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 05-Dec-2016 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: 07-Dec-2016 Original Closing Date: 31-Dec-2018 Revised Closing Date: 31-Dec-2021 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the proposed Second National Hydromet System Modernization Project (RU-Hydromet-2) is to further enhance the national capacity to deliver reliable and timely weather, hydrological and climate information to the Russian public and economic sector and enhance Russia's capacity to integrate into the global system of meteorological services. As a result of the projectRoshydromet will further modernize its services and improve the accuracy of information necessary to protect society and economy from a wide range of hydrometeorological and climate related hazards. The project will also support Russia's public institutions to make informed economic decisions related to climate information (both negative and positive impacts) based on comprehensive climate models and assessment capacity. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Component A. Strengthening Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and systems delivering weather, climate and hyd rological data and information:(Cost $64.14 M) Component B. Modernization of observation networks:(Cost $90.16 M) Component C. Institutional and regulatory strengthening, improvement of service delivery to clients and better preparedness for emer gencies:(Cost $17.28 M) Component D: Project Management:(Cost $7.78 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Substantial Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions 6/24/2019 Page 1 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) The project has reached its fifth year of implementation (became effective in May 2014). Given the enormous technical complexity (due to the size of the country and therefore the network, multiple layers of functions that Roshydromet is performing, etc), the project has achieved significant results, however did not avoid having delays in implementation of several important activities. With the installation of the High-Performing Computer (supercomputer) in Roshydromet's premises in Moscow, Khabarovsk and Novosibirsk, the forecasting capacity of Roshydromet (the lead time and reliability of the weather forecast) has increased: for example, the accuracy of warnings of hazardous events has increased from 88% to 95.3%, special resolution for weather forecasts increased from 15 km to 10 km. Overall, according to surveys at the intermediate stage of the project, the users’ satisfaction rating has gone up from 65% to targeted 80%. Another major development is the progress with the Volga hydrological network modernization - the necessary procurement procedures have been completed and the implementation of this activity started in 2019. The objective is to improve reliability of hydrological forecast and flooding on Volga River. There are several delays with important activities – such as modernization of remote stations, telecommunication system, and several others. The Bank together with RosHydromet are looking into ways of possible acceleration and resolution of issues. The next mission is scheduled for December 2019. Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance -- Substantial Substantial Macroeconomic -- Substantial Substantial Sector Strategies and Policies -- Moderate Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program -- Moderate Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability -- Moderate Moderate Fiduciary -- Substantial Substantial Environment and Social -- Low Low Stakeholders -- Substantial Substantial Other -- -- -- Overall -- Substantial Substantial Results PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes To enhance capacity to deliver reliable and timely weather, hydrological and climate information IN00707172 ►Increased lead times of basic weather forecasts for major Russian administrative centers with reliability over 70% (Hours, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 120.00 120.00 120.00 168.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 This indicator should in principle show progress towards the end of 2019, when HPC is fully operational. Comments: IN00707173 6/24/2019 Page 2 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) ►Increased reliability of forecasts of seasonal water inflow to reservoirs in the Volga River basin (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 75.00 78.00 78.00 85.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Due to delays with deployment of the package and activities linked to modernization of hydrological Comments: network on Volga River basin, the progress can be expected not earlier than the end of the calendar 2019. IN00707174 ►Increased number of RHM sectoral data users (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 100.00 122.00 123.50 123.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 According to the report on the activities accomplished by Roshydromet in 2018 - (http://meteo.ru/egfd/144- Comments: formation-egfd). IN00707175 ►Increased satisfaction of users with RHM services (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 65.00 80.00 80.00 80.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Component A. Strengthening Information Communication Technology (ICT) infrastructure and systems delivering weather, climate and hyd rological data and information IN00707191 ►A.1 Accuracy of warnings on natural hazards (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 88.00 93.60 95.30 93.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Based on the Final Report on Hydromet Activities in 2018 and Plans for 2019: (http://www.meteorf.ru/about/coordination/377/final/#DATE_FROM=01.01.2019&DATE_TO=31.12.2019& PAGEN_1=1&ID=377 ); and Comments: Implementation report on Environment Protection Program for 2012-2020 (https://programs.gov.ru/Portal/programs/reportIndicators?gpId=12&itemId=B50D24E5-4098-4126-B419- 14C424225BE0&year=2018 ) IN00707194 ►A.2 Increased level of spatial resolution of weather forecasts with the lead time of up to three days (for large cities) (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/24/2019 Page 3 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) Value 15.00 15.00 10.00 5.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Increased mostly thanks to the forecasting capabilities provided by the supercomputer. So far this is only Comments: applied to Moscow, but in theory, can be applied to other large cities. IN00707197 ►A.3 Number of oblast and territorial Roshydromet Centers providing remote client access to archived data (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 7.00 10.00 10.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Thanks to the installation of equipment under A.2.a Comments: IN00707200 ►A.4 Number of Roshydromet centers providing operational access to observational data and products for internal and external RHM clients (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 70.00 100.00 100.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 100% of the centers are currently equipped with the necessary IT and software to provide operational access to user procurement under A.3.a. Comments: Component B. Modernization of observation networks IN00707192 ►B.1 Increased number of automated observation sites in pilot regions of the North-West of Russia (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 83.00 92.00 92.00 92.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 IN00707195 ►B.2 Availability of modern devices for measurement of soil moisture and heat regime of agricultural lands in the pilot regions (North Caucasus, West Siberia) (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 100.00 100.00 80.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Measurement devices have been delivered to pilot regions and testing phase has been completed. 100% Comments: of measuring points installed and operational. IN00707198 ►B.3 Modernization of upper air observation network (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 6/24/2019 Page 4 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) Value 64.00 78.00 81.00 87.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 15 out of 17 recipients of equipment signed the acceptance report. 2 more are still testing with positive Comments: results IN00707201 ►B.4 Reduction of error of water flow data in the Volga River basin (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 20.00 30.00 30.00 15.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 IN00707203 ►B.5 Percentage of the Volga River basin territory corresponding to the minimum required number of hydrological observation sites (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 81.00 81.00 81.00 100.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 This indicator will not change until the hydrological network modernization activities are completed. The Comments: launch is expected in fall 2018. Component C. Institutional and regulatory strengthening, improvement of service delivery to clients and better preparedness for emer gencies IN00707193 ►C.1 Developed/updated regulatory, organizational and administrative documents aimed at improving the organizational, methodological, financial and economic activities of Roshydromet (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 5.00 5.00 9.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 IN00707196 ►C.2 Re-training and professional upgrading of specialists from the Roshydromet’s organizations (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 169.00 2,342.00 2,784.00 9,300.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 1st quarter of 2019 - 422 people were trained out of planned 1844 in 2019. Comments: IN00707199 ►C.3 Number of scientists and specialists participating in internships in leading universities and agencies outside Russia (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2.00 2.00 10.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 6/24/2019 Page 5 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) The mission noted earlier as well that this target would be difficult to reach due to difficulties for Russians Comments: to obtain internships in leading universities and agencies abroad. IN00707202 ►C.4 Accuracy of warnings on hazardous hydrometeorological events delivered to regional authorities and the Ministry of Emergency Situations (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 81.00 89.00 89.00 89.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Updated based on the recent assessment made by the RosHydromet Comments: IN00707204 ►C.5 Number of Roshydromet institutions where situation centers are deployed (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 25.00 96.00 96.00 102.00 Date 01-Jan-2014 21-Dec-2018 17-Jun-2019 31-Dec-2021 Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P127676 IBRD-82910 Effective USD 60.00 60.00 0.00 35.79 24.21 60% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P127676 IBRD-82910 Effective 17-Sep-2013 17-Jan-2014 08-May-2014 31-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2021 Cumulative Disbursements 6/24/2019 Page 6 of 7 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report RUSSIA HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MODERNIZATION (P127676) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 21-Feb-2018 Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/24/2019 Page 7 of 7