Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No. 137218-CM INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL FINANCE CORPORATION AND MULTILATERAL INVESTMENT GUARANTEE AGENCY PERFORMANCE AND LEARNING REVIEW OF THE COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK FOR THE REPUBLIC OF CAMEROON FOR THE PERIOD FY2017-FY2021 July 08, 2019 Africa Region Central Africa Department 1 The International Finance Corporation The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank Group authorization. i The date of the last Country Partnership Framework was March 28, 2017 (Report No. 107896-CM) FISCAL YEAR January 1- December 31 CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit = CFA francs (FCFA) US$1 =FCFA 574.05 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AF Additional Financing AFD French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement) AfDB African Development Bank AIMDP Agriculture Investment and Market Development Project ARSEL Electricity Sector Regulatory Agency (Agence de Régulation du Secteur de l’Electricité) ASA Advisory Services and Analytical BEAC Bank of Central Africa States CAR Central African Republic CDD Community Driven Development CEMAC Central African Economic and Monetary Community CFA Franc Central African Franc CPF Country Partnership Framework CPI Consumer Price Index CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment DPs Development Partners DPO Development Policy Operation DSA Debt Sustainability Analysis EIB European Investment Bank ENEO Energy Company of Cameroon EU European Union FDI Foreign Direct Investment GBV Gender-based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GESP Growth and Employment Strategy Paper GNI Gross National Income GoC Government of Cameroon GP Global Practice GPE Global Partnership for Education GRM Grievance Redress Mechanisms HC Human Capital HCI Human Capital Index IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICT Information and Communication Technologies IDA International Development Association IDPs Internally Displaced Persons IEG Independent Evaluation Group IFC International Finance Corporation IMF International Monetary Fund MFD Maximizing Finance for Development MIGA Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MS Moderately Satisfactory ii MU Moderately Unsatisfactory MW Megawatt NAP National Adaptation Plan NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NGO Non-governmental Organization NW AND SW North West and South West Regions PBF Performance-based Financing PDO Project Development Objectives PLR Progress and Learning Review PPIAF Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPP Public-private Partnership RoC Republic of Cameroon RPBA Recovery and Peace Building Assessment RSR Rapid Social Response RSW Refugee Sub-Window SCD Systematic Country Diagnostic SDGs Sustainable Development Goals SME Small and Medium Size Enterprise SOE State Owned Enterprise SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TA Technical Assistance TFs Trust Funds TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training U Unsatisfactory UN United Nations UNHCR UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations International Children’s Emergency Fund WBG World Bank Group World Bank IFC MIGA Vice President: Hafez Ghanem Sergio Pimenta Keiko Honda (EVP) Director: Elisabeth Huybens Aliou Maiga Merli Baroudi Task Team Leader: Gina Bowen, Tao Wang Mehita Sylla Moritz N. Nebe Acknowledgments The PLR was prepared under the guidance of Elisabeth Huybens, Country Director (AFCC1). In addition to the Task Team Leaders, the core team included Angelique DePlaa, Country Program Coordinator (AFCC1); Issa Diaw, Mazen Bouri and Carine Clert, (Program Leaders, AFCC1); Barbara Geiser, Senior Operations Officer (AFCC1); Sylvie Munchep Ndze, Senior Program Assistant (AFMCM); Firmin Nkoghe, Program Assistant, and Micheline Agbo Faucompré, Consultant (AFCCM). Several World Bank Group team members made significant contributions including Hoda Atia Moustafa, Head, MIGAF; Rick Emery Tsouck Ibounde, Sr. Economist (GMFDR); Marcos Vaena, Strategy Officer, IFC (CCECE); and Paul Levy, Consultant (MIGES). iii TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................................................ 1 II. MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 1 A. Fragility............................................................................................................................................ 1 B. Socio-political Developments ......................................................................................................... 2 C. Recent Economic Developments. ................................................................................................... 4 D. Changes to Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity. .................................................................. 4 III. SUMMARY OF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION ....................................................................................... 5 A. Program Delivery and Implementation .......................................................................................... 5 B. Evolution of Partnerships .............................................................................................................. 11 C. Summary of Progress Towards Achieving CPF Objectives ............................................................ 11 IV. EMERGING LESSONS ............................................................................................................................ 14 V. ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK.................................................................. 16 A. Adjustments to operational approach ............................................................................................. 16 B. Adjustments to Results Framework .............................................................................................. 21 VI. RISKS TO CPF PROGRAM ...................................................................................................................... 22 List of Tables Table 1: Planned and Actual IDA/IBRD Financing FY17-FY19 (US$ millions) ............................................................... 7 Table 2: IDA and IBRD Portfolio Trends (as of June 6, 2019) ....................................................................................... 8 Table 3: ASA Tasks Planned FY17-FY19........................................................................................................................ 9 Table 4: FY20-FY22 Indicative IDA and IBRD Lending Program (US$ million) ............................................................ 20 Table 5: Tentative ASA Program FY20 and Beyond ................................................................................................... 21 Table 6: Risks to the Cameroon CPF Program ........................................................................................................... 22 List of Figures Figure 1: Location of Refugees and IDPs and Geographic Representation of World Bank-financed Projects .................................................................................................................................................................... 3 List of Boxes Box 1: Impacts from Textbook Policy Reform ............................................................................................................. 8 Box 2: Nachtigal – Transformational WBG engagement in energy sector – MFD in practice ................................... 10 Box 3: Summary of Progress Against CPF Objectives ................................................................................................ 13 Box 4: How tailored measures allow continued work in areas in active conflict in the Far North region: ............... 14 Box 5: A dynamic, tailored approach to WBG support in the NW and SW to help minimize the loss of HC............. 17 Box 6: Delivering increasing climate change co-benefits in Cameroon ..................................................................... 80 List of Annexes Annex 1: Revised Results Matrix (FY17-FY22)........................................................................................... 23 Annex 2: Summary of Changes to Original CPF Results Matrix ................................................................ 42 Annex 3: Summary of Progress toward CPF Objectives............................................................................ 54 Annex 4: Key Macro Economic Indicators ................................................................................................ 72 Annex 5: Transformational WBG Engagement in the Energy Sector........................................................ 73 Annex 6: MIGA and IFC Portfolios in Cameroon ....................................................................................... 75 Annex 7: World Bank Active Portfolio as of May 21, 2019 ....................................................................... 77 Annex 8: Delivering Increasing Climate Change Co-Benefits in Cameroon .............................................. 79 Annex 9: Human Capital in Cameroon ...................................................................................................... 81 iv I. INTRODUCTION 1. This Performance and Learning Review (PLR) summarizes progress in the implementation of the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Cameroon for the period FY17-FY21. The CPF discussed by the Board of Executive Directors on March 28, 2017 was based on the findings of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD), the World Bank Group’s (WBG) strategic priorities, and the Government’s Strategy for Growth and Employment – including its commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and responsibilities in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The SCD recognized that Cameroon is not achieving its considerable potential because it is a country at two speeds - while poverty and inequality were improving in much of the country, they were deteriorating in the northern regions which are the poorest and affected by conflict. The CPF was thus designed around three pillars to: (i) address multiple poverty traps in rural areas with a focus on northern regions; (ii) foster infrastructure and private sector development; and (iii) improve governance. 2. The country context has changed significantly in the past two years. On the economic front, Cameroon is now supported by an International Monetary Fund (IMF) program. In June 2017, Cameroon embarked on an Extended Credit Facility program with the IMF – alongside other countries of the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) – to restore external and fiscal sustainability following the 2014 oil price drop and to improve debt sustainability. On the socio-political front, violent conflict has emerged in Cameroon’s two Anglophone regions, the North West and South West (NW and SW) regions. This conflict, the root causes of which are very different from the conflict in the north, has considerable social and economic impacts and has resulted in large-scale displacement. 3. The CPF pillars remain relevant and aligned with Government’s vision. Pillar 1 is redefined to highlight better its focus on fragility. CPF results are encouraging even if uneven and slower than planned. The PLR adjustments focus on: (i) further increasing emphasis on the fragile and conflict-affected Northern regions and the Lake Chad Region; (ii) dedicating special efforts to the NW and SW regions; (iii) addressing complex Human Capital (HC) challenges (especially stunting); (iv) more deliberately addressing gender issues (gender-based violence (GBV) and young women/girls’ empowerment); (v) aiming for a deeper policy dialogue in selected sectors to be supported by a development policy operation (DPO) series; and (vi) strengthening the Maximizing Finance for Development through the cascade approach. The program will further deepen its already considerable integration of climate considerations. The CPF period will be extended by one year to FY22 to allow for materialization of results in the face of slow implementation of part of the activities. The results framework is adjusted accordingly. II. MAIN CHANGES IN COUNTRY CONTEXT A. Fragility 4. Cameroon has become an increasingly fragile country with a considerable share of its population living in conflict areas. Since 2012, Cameroon’s Far North region has suffered from the Boko Haram conflict which originated in North East Nigeria. The violence feeds on the hopelessness resulting from abject poverty, the limited presence of government services such as education and health, and a limited natural resource base. The latter is aggravated by climate change and high fertility rates, which put pressure on the availability of natural resources, resulting in conflicts over land and water. While the intensity of the violence has abated since its peak in 2016, there are continued frequent small- scale suicide attacks, especially in areas close to Lake Chad and the border with Nigeria. Furthermore, the risks for renewed escalation are considerable given that the deteriorating situation in Nigeria has spill-over effects in Cameroon. The Far North region hosts approximately 102,000 Nigerian refugees and 244,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs). The coordinated efforts of the Governments of Cameroon (GoC), Chad, Niger, and Nigeria are leading to closer collaboration for the recovery and development of the Lake Chad region which straddles the four countries. Importantly, the population of the Far North 1 region appreciates the efforts of the government and the army.1 The Adamawa and East regions continue to suffer the impacts of chronic instability in Central African Republic (CAR) and violent banditry, with the two regions combined hosting about 234,000 Central African refugees.2 5. In the most significant change since the CPF, violent conflict has emerged in the Anglophone NW and SW regions. It is grounded in specific grievances related to identity, the rollback of the original federal state, as well as a lack of respect for the anglophone justice and education systems and for bilingualism in the public sector. What started as peaceful demonstrations in 2016 gave way to a violent secessionist conflict perpetrated by a multitude of armed groups, increasingly laced with common banditry, resulting in a dramatic escalation in violence since 2018. Government officials, security forces, those who resist orders for boycotts, and better-off individuals are all targeted. Government efforts to promote dialogue and a peaceful resolution to the conflict have thus far not been successful. The deployment of the army has been associated with allegations of human rights abuses and the trust of the NW and SW populations in the national security forces has declined sharply. More than a thousand fatalities have been recorded including more than a hundred security personnel, by far surpassing recent fatalities in the Far North region. About 500,000 people from the NW and SW regions are now internally displaced and another 32,000 have sought refuge in Nigeria. (See Figure 1.) As social services have largely collapsed, a humanitarian crisis has unfolded. Whereas NW and SW regions traditionally had strong social services, many schools have been closed since the conflict started as they are targeted by secessionist forces. While the root causes of the conflict in the NW and SW regions are quite different from those in the Far North region, there are common factors, notably the poor quality of government services associated with corruption, a lack of empowerment of local governments and communities, and a sense of marginalization by a highly centralized state. B. Socio-political Developments 6. In October 2018, President Paul Biya, in power since 1982, was reelected for a seventh seven- year term. Nevertheless, the political landscape has changed with the emergence of several new opposition figures, which could affect the parliamentary and municipal elections tentatively scheduled to be held later in 2019. The President has highlighted decentralization as a focus of his new mandate and has created a Ministry of Decentralization and Local Development. A package of decentralization laws has been adopted by Parliament and regional elections are tentatively slated to be held later in 2019. The President has created a National Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration Committee to offer opportunities to those who abandon Boko Haram or the secessionist struggle. 1 After reports of early human rights violations, the army has enhanced its community outreach in the Far North region. A survey conducted as part of the social assessment for the rehabilitation of the Mora-Kousseri road confirmed that the population appreciates the presence of the army. 2 East Region is hosting 173,740 refugees, while Adamawa is hosting 59,984. 2 Figure 1: Location of Refugees and IDPs and Geographic Representation of World Bank- financed Projects 3 C. Recent Economic Developments. 7. In response to the sharp drop in oil prices in 2014-2016, the Heads of State of the CEMAC3 decided in late 2016 to protect the Central African Franc (CFA) peg to the Euro, restore external and fiscal stability, and pursue economic diversification. All countries agreed to seek IMF, World Bank, African Development Bank (AfDB) and French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement, AFD) support.4 Regional growth has improved from 0.9 percent in 2017 to 2.4 percent in 2018 largely because of a rebound in oil prices. The non-oil primary fiscal balance has improved from -13.8 percent of non-oil gross domestic product (GDP) in 2016 to -7.4 percent in 2018. Gross regional reserves recovered from 2.3 months of imports in 2016 to 2.7 in 2018.5 While a reserves crisis has thus been averted, the growth and reserves recovery remain fragile and considerable further structural reforms are needed for sustainable results. 8. Cameroon’s economy, the largest in CEMAC, has been recovering with favorable medium- term prospects, but downside risks are considerable. After GDP growth slowed to 3.5 percent in 2017, it reached 4 percent in 2018 and is expected to attain 4.2 percent in 2019, driven by public works and financial services, an increase in gas production, and a slower than expected decline in oil production. The fiscal deficit has narrowed from 6.1 percent in 2016 to an estimated 2.5 percent in 2018, as improved non-oil revenue mobilization has offset overruns in uncategorized expenditures. Measures on the revenue side included better taxpayer segmentation, stronger recovery of tax arrears and improved customs collection on imports of refined fuel products. The conflict in the NW and SW regions has significant impacts, with declining production in cocoa, coffee and bananas. Total production loss resulting from the anglophone crisis was estimated at about 0.5 and 0.3 percent of GDP in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Revenue collection in the two regions declined by about 8 to 9 percent in 2017, in contrast to good revenue performance nationwide. The public debt-to-GDP ratio has further increased, reaching 39 percent of GDP in 2018. Cameroon continues to be at high risk of debt distress, but its debt profile is expected to improve in the medium term. Overall, banks remain liquid, profitable, and well capitalized though asset quality is deteriorating with Non-Performing Loans reaching 15.3percent at end of 2018 compared to 14.1percent at end of 2016 mainly due to payment delays by the public sector. Cameroon has made little progress in addressing structural impediments to sustainable and inclusive growth – it ranks 166 in Ease of Doing Business, and broadband penetration is only 14 percent. The conflict in the NW and SW, and the upcoming municipal, regional and parliamentary elections all represent risks to the economic outlook. Limited prioritization, effectiveness and efficiency of the public investment program, and excessive reliance on non-concessional financing present risks to debt sustainability6. The fourth review of the IMF Extended Credit Facility program was completed in May 2019 and the associated staff report is expected to be considered by the IMF Board in summer 2019. D. Changes to Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity. 9. Cameroon’s overall poverty rate is estimated to have declined marginally from 23.8 to 22.6 percent between 2014 and 2018, using the international poverty line of US$1.9 per day. It is unlikely that the sharp regional disparities in poverty have declined, with the incidence of poverty measured by the national poverty line in 2014 ranging from 74, 68, and 55 percent in the Far North, North and North West regions, respectively, compared to 19 and 22 percent in the Littoral and West regions, respectively. Cameroon’s Human Capital Index (HCI) is 0.39, just below the 0.4 average for Sub Saharan Africa, notwithstanding its middle-income status. It is likely that the security crisis in the NW and SW regions 3 CEMAC is comprised of Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, and Republic of Congo. 4 The Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea are not yet under disbursing IMF programs. 5 Data from IMF CEMAC staff report. 6 The last Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) took place in 2018. 4 will have a severe impact on both poverty and the HCI as it has been estimated that about 4.2 million people are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance.7 10. Cameroon remains vulnerable to climate change, which acts as a threat multiplier for achieving poverty reduction and shared prosperity, particularly in the north. Climate change will exacerbate rainfall variability and increase the likelihood of sporadic floods and droughts. Cameroon has outlined its priorities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build resilience to climate risks. In its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)8 which stipulates that with international support, the country commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent by 2035. Cameroon’s National Adaptation Plan (NAP)9 aims at: “reducing its vulnerability, and even turning the climate change problem into a solution/opportunity for development”. III. SUMMARY OF PROGRAM IMPLEMENTATION A. Program Delivery and Implementation 11. Lending to date has been strong and largely in line with the CPF plans, reflecting strategic adjustments to enhance financing for the poorest and most fragile regions, support reforms through DPOs and strengthen the environment for MFD. International Development Association (IDA) and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) financing commitments over FY17-FY19 reached US$1.8 billion, while the average project size has increased by 86 percent since FY16 (Table 1). In line with Pillar 1 of the CPF, and as highlighted in Figure 1, the portfolio has shifted toward Cameroon’s poorest and fragile northern regions, with more than half of new commitments located there. This includes dedicated support for refugees and their host communities with the Community Driven Development (CDD), Social Safety Nets, Health System Performance and Education Reform Support Projects together drawing on US$130 million in financing from the IDA18 Refugee Sub-window. 10 Reflecting the MFD through the cascade approach, IBRD provided a US$300 million guarantee for the Nachtigal Hydropower Project. Following Cameroon’s engagement with the IMF, a DPO series was launched with a first DPO (US$200 million) delivered in FY18, and a second (US$200 million) expected to be delivered in FY20. At the end of FY19, the active portfolio was comprised of fifteen national projects amounting to net commitments of US$1.8 billion and two regional operations for which the Cameroon portion totals US$417 million.11 12. While most projects that are currently effective are progressing well towards their development objectives, implementation has recently slowed. First, effectiveness delays have increased considerably. As of end-June 2019, two Board-approved projects were still pending effectiveness. Second, disbursement has also slowed. In FY17-FY18, and notwithstanding a strong increase in net commitment, disbursement was strong thanks to a very close collaboration with Government, including a much shorter and yet higher-quality process for involuntary resettlement. Implementation slowed considerably in FY19 however, when the disbursement rate reached only 5.5 percent at end-April. Several factors have contributed to this slowdown in effectiveness and implementation: Government introduced new and lengthy procedures to strengthen control over new borrowing; encountered difficulties in prioritizing projects in the context of the borrowing limits agreed under the IMF program; halted disbursements repeatedly in FY19 to respect the ceiling on disbursement against externally financed projects under the IMF program; and experienced considerable delays before and after the presidential elections of October 2018. These factors, together with the security situation in the NW and SW, have also affected the quality of the portfolio and four projects are currently rated 7 The United nations (UN) Cameroon Humanitarian Needs Overview 2019. 8 Cameroon Country Page, WBG Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 9 Cameroon Nationally Determined Contribution, 2015. UNFCCC. 10 Under IDA18, Cameroon received US$130 million from the RSW, which under RSW rules, was provided on grant terms due to Cameroon’s high risk of debt distress. 11 Two projects currently in the portfolio will close by the end of FY19 . 5 moderately unsatisfactory for implementation progress, with actions underway to address this situation. Six projects closed over FY17-FY19, with three projects rated moderately satisfactory (MS), one rated moderately unsatisfactory (MU), and two rated unsatisfactory (U) for their Development Objectives by both Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) and Management. 6 Table 1: Planned and Actual IDA/IBRD Financing FY17-FY19 (US$ millions) CPF Program CPF Actuals Planned Grand Total (IDA + IBRD) Focus 1,785 2,117 Status IDA 17 Balance and IDA18 Area 768 630 Livestock Development Project (P154908) 1 100 100 Active Mining Sector TA Project (P122153) - AF 1 27 27 Active Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River Project (TA) (P157733) 3 26.3 23 Pending effectiveness Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) 1 160 160 Active PFM for Service Delivery Reform Project (P151155) 3 31 30 Active Community Development Program Support - Forced Displacement (P144637)- AF (*) 1 48 0 Addition to CPF-Active Social Safety Nets - Response to Crisis (P128534) -AF (*) 1 60 0 Addition to CPF-Active Health System Performance Reinforcement (P156679) -AF (*) 1 36 0 Addition to CPF-Active Education Reform Support Project (P160926)* 1 130 100 Advanced from FY 19 to FY18 - Active Access to Electricity in Northern Regions (P163881) 1 150 150 Pending Signature ICT Sector Refom Project 2 0 40 Postponed to FY 21 - under preparation Regional Lake Chad Recovery and Development Project (P161706) (RI w/Nal IDA contribution - Total cost $60 mo 1 50 Postponed to FY20 - under preparation ID for Development Project (RI w/Nal IDA contribution) 20 Dropped IDA 18 Regional Integration without National IDA contribution (**) 0 0 Strengthening the Capacity of Regional Financial Institutions and Intermediation in the CEMAC Region (P161368) Active Improved Investment Climate within OHADA Project (P126663) - AF Active IBRD 1,017 1,417 Electricity Transmission and Reform Project (P152755) 325 325 Active Nachtigal Hydropower Project - Guarantee (P157734) 300 300 Active Transport Sector Development Project (P150999) 192 192 Active First Fiscal Consolidation and Inclusive Growth DPO (P163657) - IBRD 200 200 Fully disbursed Second Fiscal Consolidation and Inclusive Growth DPO (P166694) 200 Moved to IDA & planned for FY20 Renamed (P168772) - Postponed to FY20 Climate Smart Agriculture/Livestock Development Project 200 under preparation (***) IDA/IBRD Financing FY 17-FY19 (US$ millions) (as of end FY19) (*) Includes financing from IDA18 Refugee Sub-Window (RSW) (**) Not included in the total (***) will be delivered under IDA financing 7 Table 2: IDA and IBRD Portfolio Trends (as of June 6, 2019) @ Data as of FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 May 31 PORTFOLIO AND DISBURSEMENTS Active Projects # 13 14 15 15 17 17 Net Commitments Amt US$ million 754.70 854.70 932.80 1,432.96 2,049.50 1,998.07 Total Disbursements US$ million 234.19 342.88 361.92 354.40 704.59 584.83 Disbursement Ratio % 16.9 22.8 22.8 21.8 17.9 6.6 PORTFOLIO RISKINESS Actual Problem Project # 6 2 5 1 0 4 Problem Project % 46.2 14.3 33.3 6.7 0.0 23.5 Potential Problem Project # 2 3 1 0 3 3 13. A strong series of Advisory Services and Analytical (ASA) products underpinned a robust policy dialogue and informed the lending program, especially for policy-based lending. The Public Expenditure Review (P161120) (PER) and dedicated analytical work on State Owned Enterprises (P164253) and Civil Service and Wage Bill Management (P164266) provided the analytical underpinnings for much of the reforms supported by the DPO series and contributed to a robust public dialogue on the importance of social sector expenditures, opportunities for savings and prioritization in public investment, governance of state- owned enterprises, and Box 1: Impacts from Textbook Policy Reform inefficiencies in the wage bill Due to a costly and impractical approach to textbook production and policy for public servants. distribution, including an obligatory new textbook every year for every Policy notes on Results Based subject, with the cost borne by families, Cameroon’s textbook/student Financing for Improved ratio was among the worst in the world. After ASA and TA helped build Education Service Delivery knowledge and provide recommendations, the DPO supported measures (TFA02094, P133338), Skills for to revamp the textbook policy, which has reduced textbook prices and Jobs and Economic increased their quality. Combined with support from the Equity and Diversification (P152086), and Quality for Improved Learning Project (P133338), the textbook/student Building Productive Safety Nets ratio has increased from 1:12 (1:30 in rural areas) in 2012 to 1:2.3 in 2018 (P149564) helped engage the for the three top subjects in the first three grades of basic education. Government in evidence-based dialogue and gave direction to projects under delivery and preparation. The analysis of the education sector also led to critically important text book policy reform supported by the DPO series. Finally, the findings and conclusions of the Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (RPBA, P160779) related to the specific needs of refugees, internally displaced persons, returnees, and host communities and were critical to determining appropriate activities and interventions in the projects financed through the IDA18 RSW (see Table 3). 8 Table 3: ASA Tasks Planned FY17-FY19 ASA Tasks Status P152086 Cameroon: Skills for jobs & economic diversification Delivered P126389 Cameroon PBF Impact Evaluation Delivered P149564 Building Productive Safety Nets Delivered P144132 Cameroon - Country Economic Memorandum Delivered P156994 CM - Rural Community-based Land Tenure Models Delivered P160779 Cameroon Recovery and Peace Building Assessment Delivered P161653 Social Protection Financing Diagnostic Delivered P164253 Review of the Commercial State-Owned Enterprises Sector in Cameroon Delivered P162998 Increasing Climate Smart Agriculture Productivity in Northern Regions Delivered P161120 Cameroon Public Expenditure Review Delivered P164266 Civil Service and Wage Bill Management Analysis Delivered TFA02094 Results Based Financing for Improved Education Service Delivery Delivered Urban Sector Review and Poverty Assessment/ New Name: Cameroon City P158599 Competitiveness Diagnostic Enhancing the Economic Performance of African Delivered Cities P165302 Land Administration and Land Use Planning Ongoing FY20 P151315 Cameroon Results Based Financing Enhanced Program Assessment Delivered P160072 Cameroon Secured Transactions and Collateral Registry Delivered Assessment of State-Owned Enterprises with a Focus on the Agriculture P167954 Sector/New Name: Diagnostic of Parastatal Involvement in Economic Sectors in Ongoing FY20 Cameroon TF0A6094/P150999 Harmonization of the legal and institutional framework for PPPs (PPIAF) Ongoing FY20 Policy Note on Reforms in the Electricity Sector Dropped Increasing the Competitiveness of the Transport Sector Dropped Unplanned Tasks P162974 Breaking Down the Barriers to Regional Agricultural Trade in Central Africa Delivered P165882 Central African Coastal Fisheries Delivered P164253 Review of the Commercial State-Owned Enterprises Sector in Cameroon Delivered P165760 Business environment reform support in Cameroon Delivered P161946 CMR Index Insurance Feasibility Study Dropped P166754 Africa Enterprise Surveys 2018 Ongoing FY20 P168137 CEMAC Trade Facilitation and Trade Corridor Analysis Delivered P162552 CEMAC Microfinance and Financial Consumer Protection project Ongoing FY20 P167839 Cameroon Financial Sector Stability (FIRST Trust Fund) Ongoing FY20 P167280 Applicability of OBA in Cameroon Irrigation and Cotton Sectors Delivered P169400 SPF: Cross-Border collaboration in the Lake Chad Region Ongoing FY20 P170182 Cameroon Human Capital Plan Delivered 14. Under the MFD through the cascade approach, WBG collaboration has leveraged finance, expertise, and solutions to crowd in private sector investment and supported a more sustainable growth model in Cameroon. The cascade approach is being applied successfully in both agriculture and energy sectors. In agriculture, efforts are designed to increase productivity through advisory services and improving access to finance. The Agriculture Investment Market Development Project (P143417) shows a slow, but satisfactory increase in the number of cooperatives with financing from commercial banks. In the energy sector, the transformational Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734) will help 9 meet increasing demand for electricity by increasing the country’s generation capacity by 30 percent and reducing generation costs by 2022. Close coordination of WBG efforts ensured a conducive environment to crowd-in private capital, reducing the need for increased public debt. Box 2: Nachtigal – Transformational WBG engagement in energy sector – MFD in practice The 420 megawatt (MW) Nachtigal Hydropower Project, with total financing of Euro 1.2 billion, will increase Cameroon’s installed generation capacity by 30 percent at a cost of US$0.07 kWh, among the lowest-cost generation project of its size in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It will have a transformational impact on Cameroon, while showcasing one of the few hydropower Public-p Private Partnerships (PPP) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Strong support from DFIs and the WBG was instrumental in securing private financing, demonstrating the principles of MFD by working in a complementary and collaborative manner. Building on 20 years of WBG support (see Annex 5), IBRD focuses on the regulatory framework, government capacity building, financial viability of the sector (DPO), as well as provision of critical risk mitigation instruments (payment and loan guarantees). IFC, as the co-developer and senior lender for the project, provides the project company with significant equity and debt, and mobilizes other lenders. MIGA provides its political risk insurance to equity investors to de-risk the project. Together, the WBG brings a unique set of experience, skills and instruments to work with the private sector including the Project developer - Electricity of France (EDF) - local commercial banks, and other development finance institutions to deliver this project in a sustainable way. Other partners (Proparco, European Investment Bank (EIB), and AfDB) also participated. Beyond direct impacts, the project also stretches the commercial bank market in Cameroon – with an unprecedented tenure of 21 years of local commercial bank financing – which paves the way for larger commercial financings and private investments both in the power sector and the infrastructure sector more generally in Cameroon. 15. International Finance Corporation (IFC) total committed investment portfolio (own account) stands at US$268.3 million (as of March 31, 2019) including the flagship Nachtigal operation, where IFC has directly invested Euro 60 million (US$69.8 million) in equity and lent up to Euro 110 million (US$124.7 million) for its own account in the project while also mobilizing Euro 806 million (US$913.9 million) from a lending syndicate of 11 development finance institutions and four commercial banks, and providing an interest rate swap on approximately Euro 300 million of notional, valued at US$10 million. IFC operations are diversified across financial markets, business environment and infrastructure, especially in agriculture and energy sectors. IFC Advisory Services portfolio totaled US$8.4 million as of quarter (Q)2 FY19. In financial markets and business environment areas, IFC support consists mainly of advisory services and technical assistance (TA). The objective of projects developed in financial markets is to improve financial inclusion and access to finance for small and medium size enterprises (SMEs) by leveraging digital finance and closing the SMEs finance gap through Risk Sharing Facilities (RSF) that allow commercial banks to increase lending to SMEs. Through its advisory services in agriculture value chains, IFC aimed at developing financing mechanisms for agriculture sector cooperatives and small farmers, including those supported by the World Bank-financed Agriculture Investment and Market Development Project (AIMDP, P143417) as well as TELCAR and SODECOTON. IFC contributes to the promotion of investment climate reforms by assisting the public-private dialogue platform and monitoring execution of the business enabling environment reforms roadmap. During the period FY17-FY18, Cameroon implemented two reforms that: (i) made starting a business easier through an online one-stop shop; and (ii) facilitated contract enforcement thanks to the adoption of a law regulating all aspects of mediation as an alternative dispute resolution mechanism. 16. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) portfolio, totaling US$457.2 million (as of June 13, 2019), consists of four projects in the energy sector. Most recently, MIGA provided Euro 164.5 million of political risk insurance (breach of contract) to two equity investors for 15 years in the transformational Nachtigal hydropower project (see Box 2). In addition, MIGA supports, through its breach of contract cover, two additional independent power generation projects and a third project (US$180 million) in transmission aimed at increasing the reliability and access to electricity. 10 B. Evolution of Partnerships 17. Collaboration with Development Partners (DPs) has helped maximize impact across various sectors and areas. Besides regular participation in the Multi Partnership Committee that brings together most DPs and the Government, the World Bank maintains a regular dialogue with key development partners, especially the AfDB, AFD, and European Union (EU). This engagement focuses on: DPO, which is also closely coordinated with IMF; public financial management, where a partnership framework with the Government was set up to support reforms related to public financial management, public investment, and state owned enterprises (SOEs); the transformational engagement in the energy sector, including the Nachtigal Hydropower Project (Box 2); and forthcoming support to climate-smart agriculture in the northern regions. The same group maintains a continuous dialogue with the Government on portfolio issues such as procurement, and the compensation process for land acquisition and involuntary displacement. 18. The collaboration with UN’s High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) (and other UN agencies such as United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund (UNICEF) and World Food Program) has been critical to project implementation in the conflict-affected areas, such as the Far North region. The Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (P160779) was led by Government and supported by the UN, the EU and the WBG. Implementation of the projects financed under the IDA18 RSW benefits from the very close partnership with UNHCR. C. Summary of Progress Towards Achieving CPF Objectives 19. Progress towards CPF objectives has been encouraging, even if uneven and slower than planned. All CPF objectives are affected by slow project implementation, increasing delays in effectiveness and conflict in the anglophone areas. Nevertheless, there are tangible results to highlight under the three pillars, chief of which would be the transformation of the energy sector (see Box 2). • Pillar 1 - Addressing Multiple Poverty Traps in Rural Areas with Focus on Northern Regions – Progress is largely on track, addressing the root causes of fragility and conflict in the northern regions, and notwithstanding the difficult security situation in the Far North region. Of the five objectives, one is completed, one is on track, two largely on track, and one partially on track. With the full implementation of the Social Safety Nets Project, approximately 635,000 poor people now have access to a safety nets system in the Adamawa, Far-North, North, East, and North West regions and the cities of Yaoundé and Douala. Foundations of the system have been established and it is able to help poor households manage shocks, invest in better nutrition and school enrollment and even develop income-generating activities. It is also equipping the country with a proper response to security challenges, having provided an effective response for displaced and refugees. In primary education, the textbook/student ratio increased to 1:2.3 for the first three grades, and completion rates increased in the northern priority areas. In health, under-5 deaths declined from 147 per 1,000 in 2014 to 94 in 2018 in the northern and East regions. The Government has started to finance the safety net and health performance-based financing (PBF) systems from its own budget. More than 100,000 people in the Far North region gained access to improved sanitation facilities under the Sanitation Project (P117102). Productivity of crops supported under the AIMDP increased considerably. The Flood Emergency Project (P143940) has ensured the protection of about 60,000 people in the Far North region from the annual risk of floods, while also making possible a second rice harvest every year. • Pillar 2 - Fostering Infrastructure and Private Sector Development – Progress is considerably slower than was expected except for the electricity sector. Of the four objectives, one is on track, and three are partially on track. There has been tangible progress in the objectives related 11 to the electricity sector, with about 120 MW in added generation capacity thanks to the completion of the Lom Pangar Hydropower dam, the regulating features of which will allow the further unlocking of the massive hydropower potential on the Sanaga River, starting with the Nachtigal Hydropower dam, which will add a further 420 MW. The reliability of access to electricity has improved with System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) reducing from 160 hours in 2015 to 86 in 2018. Progress in improving the relevance of skills, the business environment, and access to financial transport and digital services has all been slower than planned. The creation of credit and collateral registries is underway; the rehabilitation of major road corridors has suffered from security issues; and reform in the information, communication and technology (ICT) sector is stalled. • Pillar 3 - Improving Governance - Progress is solid and has benefited from the introduction of a DPO series. Out of three objectives one is on track and two are largely on track. Local development plans, prepared by municipalities, are increasingly being used to guide local investment. An annual governance score card is produced for every municipality in the country, and the top scorers, or top improvers get access to additional investment funds. Municipal councils are increasingly using user surveys to seek citizen feedback. The successful PBF approach has expanded faster than planned in the health sector, with considerable improvements for quality of care scores, and a similar approach is being piloted in the basic education sector. On the regulatory front, the full unbundling of the power sector has been achieved. The introduction of a DPO series permitted work on several additional governance areas. A new Public Procurement Code has been enacted, clarifying the responsibilities of stakeholders and the independence of the complaint mechanism. Transparency has been increased for State Owned Enterprises. An education textbook policy has been approved, and health centers are now allowed to procure pharmaceuticals from companies other than the national pharmaceuticals store. The improved resourcing of the Road Fund has strengthened road maintenance. 12 Box 3: Summary of Progress Against CPF Objectives Pillar 1: Addressing Multiple Poverty Traps in Rural Areas with focus on Northern Regions Objective 1. Increased productivity and access to markets in the agriculture and livestock sectors Objective 2. Improved maternal and child health, and nutrition Objective 3. Enhanced quality of, and more equitable access, to education Objective 4. Expanded social safety nets Objective 5. Improved access to local infrastructure Pillar 2: Fostering Infrastructure and Private Sector Development Objective 6. Increased national availability of electricity Objective 7. Improved transport and ICT services Objective 8. Improved business environment and access to financial services Objective 9. Increased supply of skills demanded by the labor market Pillar 3: Improving Governance Objective 10. Improved efficiency of public expenditure and service delivery Objective 11. Improved regulatory and institutional framework for key sectors Objective 12. Increased citizen engagement at local level 13 IV. EMERGING LESSONS 20. Lessons have emerged around addressing conflict and fragility, tackling complex HC challenges, more deliberately addressing gender issues, strengthening the impact of DPOs, extending the MFD through the cascade approach, programming for climate change adaptation, and addressing implementation bottlenecks. These lessons inform the adjustments to the CPF, including the results framework. 21. While the program is strongly focused on addressing the root causes and impacts of fragility and conflict in the northern regions, a similarly tailored approach is needed to address the conflict in the NW and SW regions while also combating nation-wide sources of fragility. The program has deliberately emphasized activities that address the abject poverty, poor access to economic and social services, limited empowerment of local administrations, and conflict over natural resources in the northern regions, while also adjusting its operational approach in those areas in the Far North region that are in active conflict (Box 4). Going forward the program will further refine and extend this approach. The program will also adopt a tailored approach to the conflict in the NW and SW. Since the root causes and impacts of that conflict are very different from those in the Far North, the approach will need to be differentiated as well. Moreover, it will need to be dynamic as the situation evolves. For example, so far access to the NW and SW regions is severely limited even for international humanitarian actors. A continued emphasis on citizen engagement at the local level and eliminating inequities in access to social and economic services will address nation-wide sources of fragility. Box 4: How tailored measures allow continued work in areas in active conflict in the Far North region: The case of the Mora – Kousseri road rehabilitation under the CEMAC Transport Transit Facilitation Project (P079736) In 2014, work on the Mora-Dabanga-Kousseri road – a critical segment of the corridor that links the port of Douala in southern Cameroon with the Far North region, Chad and Nigeria – was interrupted after the contractors’ workers were kidnapped by Boko Haram (and subsequently released unharmed). In 2016, the Government requested that the work be resumed by the Army Corps of Engineers (ACE) under a Collaboration Framework between the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Public Works. The World Bank agreed and supported the Government in devising tailored instruments described below to manage the inherent, mostly social risks: • A comprehensive social assessment of communities’ perceptions – including of the military - conducted by a local non-governmental organizations (NGO); • Revision of technical specifications for road rehabilitation to avoid involuntary resettlement and especially the destruction of houses and mosques; • Inclusion of small works such as water points and school rehabilitation, to bring early visible support; • Dedicated arrangements for monitoring the security situation; • Deployment of security forces to protect the project sites, the ACE personnel and equipment; • High standards for the selection of all military staff associated with the works and training of all military staff in international humanitarian law, human rights, and GBV; • Embedded NGO with focal points in every village along the road to carry out local communication and implement the GRM which relies on pro-active communication with traditional chiefs, youth/women/men representatives, religious leaders, and local associations and committees; • Tailored disbursement tool with control by an independent financial verifier; • Third Party Monitoring closely coordinated with the embedded NGO and other stakeholders; and • Weekly meetings with all stakeholders, and quarterly Directors’ reviews of progress. 14 22. Dedicated multisector approaches are needed to strengthen HC outcomes, especially for complex problems. Good progress has been achieved in health, education and social safety nets thanks to strong sectoral programs. PBF has improved the efficiency of health sector financing by switching from traditional ad-hoc allocations to needs-based allocations, an approach now also being piloted in basic education. Yet with an HCI of only 0.39, support needs to shift to addressing key bottlenecks such as the delivery of birth certificates and identification, and complex multisectoral problems such as stunting, early pregnancies, and GBV 12 . Moreover, the success of project-supported activities such as the distribution of textbooks, significant coverage of the social safety net, and the application of PBF methods can only be made sustainable if the Government embraces them more comprehensively as part of its annual budget. 23. Women’s empowerment needs to be addressed more deliberately. While World Bank- supported programs in health, education, safety nets, agriculture, and access to electricity, are already focusing on gender aspects, a more deliberate approach to empowerment will be adopted going forward. Given that GBV is highly prevalent in Cameroon, the program will incorporate activities to prevent GBV and mitigate the risks across the portfolio. Poor school completion rates for girls need to be addressed with dedicated approaches to prevent early pregnancies and incentivize school retention. These could include safe spaces, cash transfers, and relevant health services, as well as access to civic documentation which is a major bottleneck to transition from primary to secondary education. All projects that occupy women, whether through work or training, can mainstream temporary child care services that offer a light package of integrated health and education services. 24. ASAs and DPOs have been instrumental in generating a more robust approach to policy, regulatory and institutional reform and can henceforth be tailored to seeking deeper sectoral reforms. ASAs have been successful at laying the groundwork for reforms subsequently supported by the DPO series. The PER, and analytical work on SOEs, the wage bill, and textbooks have all been followed up with dedicated reforms supported by the DPO. With the Government having gained familiarity with this approach, we can move to support deeper sectoral reforms focused for example on the HC challenges or on MFD, which could be supported by the DPO series. 25. Dedicated upstream collaboration across the World Bank, IFC, and MIGA to support adequate policy, institutional and regulatory reforms, as well as sufficiently strong institutions, are needed to underpin the MFD through the cascade approach. Such approach has been successful in the energy and agriculture sectors, namely for the Nachtigal Hydropower and Agriculture Investment and Market Development Projects. Advisory services and TA as well as DPO support (in the case of the energy sector) have been key to support reforms which made the investment environment more attractive to the private sector. Provided there is sufficiently strong commitment to sector reform, similar approaches would be feasible for ICT, railways, and urban transport. Ongoing support for financial sector reform, including the creation of credit and collateral registries, agricultural insurance pilots, and the reform of the CEMAC capital markets, is a transversal enabler for MFD. 26. Strong climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits have been delivered and can be further strengthened through project selection. Good progress has been made on delivering climate co-benefits by linking Cameroon’s climate strategies and plans to project design. For example, the Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River TA Project and the Nachtigal Hydropower Project counted 100 percent climate co-benefits. Both were developed to make a strong contribution to achieving Cameroon’s NDC mitigation goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent by 2035. Going forward, the program will seek to finance projects that deliver results along the CPF’s strategic objectives while also 12 Stunting affects 32 percent of children below 5. The 2011 DHS indicated that 25 percent of all 15 to 19-year-old girls have at least one child or are pregnant. GBV in Cameroon is among the highest in the world – for example 20 percent of women report that their first sexual experience was forced (2011 DHS). 15 contributing strongly to climate change adaptation or mitigation. Planned projects to support climate- smart agriculture, railway transport, and urban mobility all respond to this approach (See Annex 8). 27. Addressing slow implementation will require a continued concerted and proactive approach. A close collaboration between Government and World Bank teams has addressed bottlenecks, such as resettlement compensation, procurement or disbursement processes. A portfolio team (composed of the fiduciary, safeguards and country management staff) has been set up to coordinate with the project implementation units with a view to solving bottlenecks as they arise. This approach can further be strengthened and rendered more pro-active as an Operations Manager will join the Cameroon Office in Yaounde. The Government has requested assistance from the World Bank in reviewing its legislation and procedures for involuntary resettlement based on a pilot implemented under World Bank-supported projects, which has resulted in shorter and higher quality processes. Even as we implement and strengthen all above technical measures, political issues may continue to affect the speed with which projects achieve effectiveness. V. ADJUSTMENTS TO COUNTRY PARTNERSHIP FRAMEWORK 28. The CPF continues to provide an adequate framework for engagement, but some significant adjustments are needed. The three CPF pillars remain relevant: address poverty gaps – especially in the fragile and conflict-affected areas, foster infrastructure and private sector development, and improve governance. At the same time, the country context has evolved significantly since the start of the CPF period. New political, economic, social, and security trends – as well as the delays in effectiveness and implementation – necessitate an extension of the CPF by one year until FY22 to provide additional time for objectives to be achieved. In addition, the lessons learned also point toward adjustments to the WBG operational approach, as described below. A. Adjustments to operational approach 29. The WBG will further increase its already strong support to development in the northern regions and the Lake Chad region, to address the causes and impacts of fragility and conflict, including abject poverty. Additional support will focus on empowering girls and women, strengthening livelihoods through climate-smart agriculture and transport connectivity, improving supply of electricity through the connection of the southern and northern electricity transmission networks, and improving trade and transport along the Douala-Ndjamena corridor. Better coordination of development activities among the four countries bordering Lake Chad and stronger empowerment of local communities, including for the resolution of local conflicts, will also be supported. New proposed lending includes a Lake Chad Women’s Empowerment and Economic Dividend Project, the Valorization of Investment in the Valley of the Logone Project (P168772), the Valorization of Investment in the Valley of the Benue Project (P166072), the Lake Chad Region Recovery and Development Project (P161706), the Cameroon-Chad Power Interconnection Project (P168185), and the Cameroon-Chad Transport Corridor Project (P167708). The results of this new lending will materialize mostly after FY22, in the next CPF period. 16 30. The WBG will help minimize the loss of HC in the NW and SW regions. Given the very fluid situation in the NW and SW regions with active ongoing conflict and very limited access even for humanitarian actors, a dynamic approach is necessary (Box 5). Box 5: A dynamic, tailored approach to WBG support in the NW and SW to help minimize the loss of HC Considering the fluid ongoing conflict, a dynamic approach is adopted to help minimize the loss of human capital, around three axes: • Focusing on the displaced and their host communities outside the NW and SW regions . The ongoing Health System Performance Reinforcement (P156679), Education Reform Support (P160926), Social Safety Nets (P128534), and Community Development Program Support (P144637) projects will bring targeted attention to those that have fled the two regions and are displaced in the belt around NW and SW, namely in the West, Littoral, and Center regions, where host community services are strained by the arrivals of the displaced. This can be achieved by re-allocations in the ongoing portfolio. • Bringing support to the populations in the NW and SW as the situation allows. The Social Safety Nets (P128534) and Health System Performance Reinforcement (P156679) projects continue to support beneficiaries in the NW and SW regions after adapting their delivery mechanisms, whereas projects in community driven development and in the education, agriculture, livestock, and roads sectors have had to interrupt their activities. • Once the situation has improved sufficiently, the WBG will consider surge support with heightened attention to the root causes of the conflict, and mostly though AF to the existing portfolio. An Economic and Social Impact Assessment will be carried out to further underpin the WBG’s dialogue with the Government and guide future activities in the NW and SW regions. 31. Greater focus will be put on HC challenges by capitalizing on successful ongoing reforms, addressing critical bottlenecks, and bringing a multi-sector approach to complex issues. Access, efficiency and equity of social services will continue to be boosted by further expanding results-based approaches in the health sector and introducing them in basic education; by supporting the decentralization of staffing the health and education sectors; by moving from broad-based subsidies to secure government financing for HC; and by providing advice as Cameroon adopts a Universal Health Coverage approach. We will also start addressing the identification for bottlenecks through a results- based approach, where all public primary schools will be incentivized to ensure that all enrolled children from grade 3 to 6 have birth certificates. Stepping up our approach on HC will focus on four priorities: stunting; learning for all; fertility; and girls/women empowerment. Specifically, on stunting, the World Bank will help (i) elevate the priority of the issue and shift the policy approach towards local and community approaches; and (ii) complement existing health-centered nutrition interventions with targeted social safety nets, behavior change for at-risk households and increased provision of rural water and sanitation services. Regarding learning challenges, the World Bank will expand its support to include secondary education, while continuing to: (i) improve teacher quality and training, school management, and school inputs in basic education; (ii) strengthen learning measurement; and (iii) highlight innovations, including digital innovations. To address high fertility rates, the World Bank will continue to foster availability and use of reproductive health services and increase the emphasis on adolescent health services while moving to a more multisectoral and systematic approach to prevent early pregnancies among young girls. This will be achieved by: (i) boosting girls’ and young women’s access to secondary education and skills-building opportunities; and (ii) providing a holistic set of interventions at the community level. These activities will benefit from a package of instruments including: (i) an overarching programmatic ASA on Human Capital (P170182); (ii) sector specific ASAs, including the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) for Cameroon Education Sector Plan 2020-2025 (P167867), the Digital Economy for Africa (DE4A) Country Diagnostic (P160170) and the Global Financing Facility (GFF) window (focus on adolescent health); (iii) the ongoing Social Safety Nets (P128534), Health System Performance Reinforcement (P156679), and Education Reform Support (P160926) Projects as well as ongoing and future lending in agriculture, livestock, community development, and infrastructure; and 17 (iv) the proposed new Secondary Education and Skills (P160926), and Second Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Economic Dividend Projects. A potential thematic DPO series on HC will also be explored. 32. As a critical component of our strategy to boost HC, young girls/women’s empowerment and GBV will be addressed through interventions that will tackle gender-based social norms through four channels. First, the World Bank will boost the socioeconomic empowerment of adolescent girls through a combination of supply-side (upgrading the teaching and learning environment with a gender-sensitive lens) and demand-side (supporting girls through scholarships in targeted areas and communication campaigns) interventions in primary and secondary education, as well as in the skills sector. Close coordination with the social safety nets interventions will be fostered, leveraging targeting tools, community outreach and poverty maps. Second, investments in early years (through health, education and social protection interventions) will use parental practices as entry-point for intra-household conflict resolution and GBV. Third, community approaches involving religious leaders and community stakeholders will be piloted. Finally, systematic GBV prevention training will be included for primary and secondary teachers nationwide while vigilance and support to GBV prevention and response at the level of Project implementation will continue by strengthening project grievance redress mechanisms (GRMs). These specific activities will be supported by: (i) scale-up and mainstreaming of Early Years approaches in the ongoing Social Safety Nets (P128534), Health System Performance Reinforcement (P156679), and Education Reform Support (P160926) Projects; (ii) the forthcoming Secondary Education and Skills Project (P160926); (iii) the proposed Second Sahel Women’ Empowerment and Economic Dividend Projects; and (iv) ASAs such as the Rapid Social Response (RSR) TF on GBV and Social Protection. 33. Going forward, a deeper policy dialogue in selected sectors could inform a reform agenda to be supported by a DPO series. The current DPO series addresses critical reforms for governance, growth, and HC. As the series concludes, it will be important to consider whether such a broad approach remains relevant, or whether a narrower, deeper focus may be useful going forward. Such an approach could focus on key policy and institutional measures for HC, including subsidy reform in favor of better financed HC programs; decentralization of staffing and other human resource management reforms addressing the lack of education and medical staff in the poorest regions; the expansion of performance-based approaches; and reforms permitting greater access to civic documentation. The ongoing analytical work on governance and on HC could support such a focus. Alternatively, a future DPO series could focus on MFD-enabling measures in sectors such as energy, ICT, transport, or agriculture. The ongoing analytical work on SOEs and the digital economy and the various TA activities in the financial sector could support such a focus. The Strengthening Public Sector Effectiveness and Statistical Capacity Project (P151155) will, in addition to supporting key governance reforms, help the Government implement the upcoming population census, the agriculture and livestock census as well as a new household survey, which will all help overcome current data gaps. 34. The WBG will further strengthen its approach to MFD in the energy, transport, and possibly ICT sectors. Building on progress to date, the WBG will continue to intervene along the entire energy sector value chain with the objective of enhancing energy access and reliability and fostering greater use of clean and renewable energy. The World Bank and IFC will further support institutional strengthening to ensure the financial viability of the power sector and service quality. With the Nachtigal Hydropower Project now under construction, support will be provided to identify and prepare the next Hydro Power Project on the Sanaga river. IFC and MIGA will explore opportunities for off-grid solar. In the transport sector, work will focus on MFD through the cascade approaches to urban mobility and railways. MIGA and IFC are exploring PPP opportunities in the transport sector such as a possible Yaounde-Douala toll road project and Douala Bus Rapid Transit project. In the financial sector, IFC will continue expanding access to finance by supporting the digital and housing finance sectors. In agriculture, IFC will focus on raising productivity across agricultural value chains. IFC also intends to leverage Cameroon’s economic leadership role to foster competitiveness in the central Africa sub-region. This includes supporting 18 business reforms with regional institutions, capital markets and financial infrastructure development, trade facilitation, as well as the provision of private solutions in transport and logistics. Depending on the strength of commitment to reform in the ICT sector, a WBG approach will be pursued as well. The instruments supporting strengthened MFD include the ongoing Electricity Transmission and Reform (P152755), Nachtigal Hydropower (P157734), Hydropower Development of the Sanaga River TA (P122153), and Rural Electricity Access for Underserved Regions (P163881) Projects; and the proposed CAPEX for Energy Company of Cameroon (ENEO) (IFC), ENEO Liquidity and Performance Incentivization Guarantee (P169915), Cameroon-Chad Transport Corridor (P167798), Douala Urban Mobility (P1167795) and ICT Sector Reform (P161219) projects; as well as the DPO series. 35. The lending IDA/IBRD program for the remainder of the CPF period could reach approximately US$2 billion (including proposed regional IDA lending), depending on the availability of national and regional IDA resources 13 and strong progress in countering ongoing effectiveness and disbursement delays. A robust ASA program will continue to inform lending. Lending will continue to be framed in support of the three CPF pillars and consider the adjustments laid out above. Moreover, lending is strongly focused on programs that will contribute to climate change adaptation and mitigation. A robust ASA program will continue to examine critical bottlenecks to inclusive growth and poverty reduction and consider options to guide future policy directions (see Tables 4 and 5). 13 IDA resources for Cameroon will depend on: (i) total IDA resources available over both IDA18 and IDA19 currently under discussion, and thus some FY20 proposed operations may require reallocations or shift into FY21; (ii) the number of IDA-eligible countries; (iii) the country’s performance rating, per capita gross national income (GNI), and population; and (iv) the performance and other allocation parameters for other IDA borrowers. 19 Table 4: FY20-FY22 Indicative IDA and IBRD Lending Program (US$ million) IDA IBRD Other CPF Other *** Focus TOTAL TOTAL National RI, TF, US$ million IDA Area IDA IDA Cofin. windows TOTAL FY20-FY22 2,030 1,705 1,281 424 295 30 FY20 - IDA 18 balance (indicative)* 910 835 545 290 75 0 Second Fiscal Consolidation and Inclusive Growth DPO (P166694) 3 200 200 0 Lake Chad Region Recovery and Development Project (P161706) 1 60 20 40 Sahel Women Economic Empowerment & Demographic Dividend Project 1 75 25 50 Cameroon-Chad Power Interconnection Project SOP1 (P168185)-(Fragility) 1 300 100 200 Valorization of Investments in the Valley of the Logone (P168772) - (Fragility) 1 200 200 0 (**) Eneo Liquidity and Performance Incentivization Guarantee (P169915) 2 0 75 FY21 - and Beyond - IDA 19 (Indicative) 845 625 491 134 220 0 Douala Urban Mobility Project (P167795) 2 0 0 0 220 Cameroon-Chad Transport Corridor SOP1 Cameroon Corridor (Railway) 1 200 66 134 (P167798) - (Fragility) Valorization of Investments in the Valley of the Benue (P166072) - (Fragility, CC) 1 200 200 0 (**) Secondary Education and Skills Development Project (P170561) 1&2 125 125 0 Third Fiscal Consolidation and Inclusive Growth DPO 3 3 100 100 FY22 - and Beyond - IDA 19 (Indicative) 275 245 245 0 0 30 Fiscal Consolidation and Inclusive Growth DPO 1- New series 3 100 100 0 ICT Sector Reform Project (P161219) 2 100 100 0 AF to the Education Sector Reform Strategy (GPE) 1 45 45 0 30 * Subject to the availability of IDA18 resources (reallocation or postponement may be needed) and effectiveness of already approved projects. ** Could be accelerated subject to availability of Regional IDA. ***IBRD availability depends on the World Bank’s financial capacity, country performance and demand from other borrowers. **** If the situation in the NW/SW improves sufficiently, the program would be adjusted to allow for surge support mostly throut AF. 20 Table 5: Tentative ASA Program FY20 and Beyond Pillar 1: Addressing Multiple Poverty Traps and Fragility (with focus on northern regions) P169400 SPF: Cross-Border Collaboration in the Lake Chad Region P170182 Programmatic Human Capital Multi-country P163652 Cameroon Investing in the Early Years P165705 Cameroon: Scaling up the Safety Net to Respond to Crises P167867 GPE Cameroon Education Sector Plan 2020-2025 RSR TF GBV and Social Protection P171004 Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) for Cameroon Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Conflict in the NW and SW Pillar 2: Fostering Infrastructure and Private Sector Development P167954 Diagnostic of Parastatal Involvement in Economic Sectors in Cameroon P167839 Cameroon Financial Sector Stability P165302 Leveraging Urban Land for Development in the CEMAC Region P167882 CEMAC Housing Finance Market Diagnostic Cameroon Private Sector Diagnostic Digital Gap Analysis Pillar 3: Improving Governance P167989 Cameroon Civil Service Pay Reform P167932 Cameroon Deepening Decentralization to Improve Service Delivery Continued Debt Policy Management Analysis Removing Broad Based Subsidies B. Adjustments to Results Framework 36. The strategic refinement of the overall program is reflected in the revised CPF results framework (Annex 1). Pillar 1 is renamed “Addressing Multiple Poverty Traps and Fragility (with focus on northern regions)” to better capture this pillar’s focus on areas that are both the poorest and the most fragile. Changes to objectives, indicators and targets reflect: (i) work that had not been fully planned at the time of the CPF (refugees, flood protection, local accountability and reforms supported by DPOs); (ii) the strengthened emphasis on HC, gender, and displacement; (iii) slow implementation in some areas; and (iv) an effort to make sure targets are measurable and realistic. Given that it is yet unclear how exactly the WBG program will respond to the NW and SW crisis, a simple process indicator has been added to Pillar 1 to indicate tailored approaches will be put in place. The Results Framework relies mostly on projects already underway. 37. Under Pillar 1, where good progress has been observed, adjustments to the results framework focus on better capturing fragility and gender aspects. The pillar is renamed as per above to highlight its focus on fragility. Further adjustments include changes to: (i) better represent the results achieved by WBG operations in the Far North region, especially on flood protection and livelihoods under the Flood Emergency project and on HC with the synergies between safety nets, education and health projects; (ii) better capture refugees and displaced as key beneficiaries; (iii) better reflect gender issues; and (iv) take account of delays in effectiveness and implementation of some projects. 38. Under Pillar 2, where progress has been slow, but results are in the right direction, Objectives 7 and 9 are reformulated and some indicators revised. Objective 7 is reformulated to reflect that no progress is expected to be achieved under the ICT Reform Project within the CPF period; and Objective 9 is reformulated to reflect that only very initial results are expected in the skills development area within the CPF period. Other adjustments reflect: (i) the delays in implementation of projects in the transport sector; (ii) the delay in the preparation of the skills project; and (iii) efforts to improve the realism for some targets. 21 39. Under Pillar 3, where good results were achieved, several indicators were revised to better reflect the results being achieved under the DPO series, which had not been considered in the original CPF results framework. Other adjustments focus on better representing the citizen engagement work at the local level, and on improving the realism for some targets given delays in effectiveness and implementation of some projects. VI. RISKS TO CPF PROGRAM 40. The overall risk rating for the extended CPF is increased to high, mainly because of increased political and governance, technical design, and fiduciary risks. 41. The political and governance risk is increased to high. There are several significant risks to social peace and political stability. These include: (i) the violent conflict in the NW and SW regions; (ii) continued Boko Haram attacks in the Far North; and (iii) regional security risks, especially related to Nigeria and CAR; (iv) the upcoming legislative and municipal elections. These risks are mitigated by close monitoring and adapting implementation methods as needed and supporting realistic actions under the DPO that address strong demands from the population, such as reforms for road maintenance, access to textbooks and availability of pharmaceutical supplies. 42. The macroeconomic risk is increased to high. Macroeconomic risks which could affect the CPF objectives include weaker global growth and tighter global financial conditions, further declines in oil prices, the low level of CEMAC foreign exchange reserves and the fact that Cameroon is at “high-risk” of debt distress. These risks are mitigated by Cameroon’s participation in the regional economic reform program supported by the IMF, the WBG, and other development partners. 43. Given the evolving challenges emerging from the NW and SW regions, the risk related to technical design of project/program has been raised to substantial. Designing programs of support for the populations in the NW and SW entails several design challenges, including very limited access (even for humanitarian actors), low trust between the population and the security services, and potential retaliation toward populations that are seen as collaborating with the Government. These risks will be mitigated by carefully choosing the nature of activities as well as implementation partners. 44. Fiduciary risk is raised to high. Recent in-depth financial management reviews revealed significant weaknesses in the internal control systems of some projects that may jeopardize results. To mitigate these risks, the WBG will continue to provide strong support to the teams and clients through close monitoring of the portfolio and capacity building. Table 6: Risks to the Cameroon CPF Program Original rating Risk Categories Revised Rating (H,S,M,L 1 Political & and governance ) Substantial High 2 Macroeconomic Substantial High 3 ??- Sector missing - and policies strategies Substantial Substantial 4 Technical design of project/program Moderate Substantial Institutional capacity for implementation and sustainability Substantial Substantial 6 Fiduciary Substantial High 7 Environmental & and social Moderate Moderate 8 Stakeholders Moderate Moderate 9 Other - - Overall Substantial High 22 Annex 1: Revised Results Matrix (FY17-FY22) CPF Indicators (FY17-FY22) Milestones WBG Engagement CPF PILLAR ONE: ADDRESSING MULTIPLE POVERTY TRAPS AND FRAGILITY (WITH FOCUS ON NORTHERN REGIONS) Growth and Employment Strategy goals (2020) supported: · human development: health, education and Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET), gender, social security, national welfare · access to water and sanitation infrastructure Issues addressed (with particular focus on northern regions): · short cropping season; soil degradation · physical and economic isolation/distance of rural producers from markets · health and education outcomes low in relation to income status (particularly maternal health) · lower health and education outcomes in northern regions and for the poorest households · women’s education and health outcomes lower in northern regions and for the poorest households · decreasing learning outcomes · insufficient vocational skills and innovation · income insecurity/ multiple poverty traps CPF Objective 1: Increased productivity and access to markets in the agriculture and livestock sectors SDG 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Expected Outcomes: · Increase in the yield of key crops in target areas · Increase in the productivity of target livestock species · Increase in access to agriculture assets or services · Increased access to markets as measured by price premia and higher sales in target value chains Indicator 1.1: Increased yields (maize, sorghum, Milestone 1.1.1: Cooperatives’ Sub-Projects Completed: cassava) in target areas implemented Knowledge: Baseline: Cassava 8t/ha (2015); Maize 1.5t/ha; Target: 100 (2021) - Breaking Down the Barriers to Regional Agriculture Sorghum 1t/ha Trade in Central Africa (P162974) – FY18 Target: Cassava 24t/ha (2021); Maize 4t/ha (2021); - Increasing Climate Smart Agriculture and Sorghum 2t/ha (202114) Productivity in Northern Regions (P162998) - FY18 - CM- Rural Community-Based Land Tenure Models (P156994) – FY18 14 All references to 2021 refer to end Calendar Year 2021. 23 Source: Agriculture Investment & Market - Applicability of OBA in Cameroon Irrigation and Development Project - AIMDP Cotton Sectors (P167280) – FY19 Milestone 1.2.1: Livestock business plans Indicator 1.2: Increased productivity of targeted implemented Ongoing: livestock species by farmers and pastoralists Target: 50 Financing: beneficiaries in target areas - Agriculture Investment and Market Development Ruminants (mortality rate): Milestone 1.2.2: New technologies adopted by Project (AIMDP, P143417) FY15 Baseline: 20 percent (2016) farmers - Livestock Development Project (P154908) FY17 Target: 12 percent (2021) Target: 15 percent IFC Broiler (kg of live weight per m2 per year): - SG Cameroon Agriculture Risk Sharing Facility Baseline (2016): 60 (34916) FY15 Target (2021): 75 - BICEC SFC Agri (34915) - Cargill Telcar (601329) Source: Livestock Development Project (LDP) - Nosa Sarl (28659) FY10 Indicator 1.3: Farmers and livestock owners reached Knowledge: with agriculture assets or services - Agriculture Index Insurance Feasibility Study Baseline (AIMDP): 0 (2015) (P167638) -FY19 Target: 120,000 (2021) o/w women: 50 percent - Land Administration and Land Use Planning (P165302) -FY20 Baseline (LDP): 0 (2015) - Assessment of SOEs with a focus on the Target: 140,000 (2021) o/w female: 49,000 o/w Agricultural sector / Diagnostic of Parastatal youth: 49,000 Involvement in Economic Sectors in Cameroon (P167954) - FY20 Source: AIMDP and LDP - Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP) for Cameroon (P171004) – FY20 Indicator 1.4: Price premium of produce sold by beneficiary farmers in targeted value chains Pipeline: (increase in percentage relative to the 2015 price Financing: baseline) - Regional Lake Chad Recovery and Development Target: Sorghum +20 percent (2021); Maize +15 Project (P161706) FY19 percent (2021); Cassava +10 percent (2021) - Valorization of Investments in the Valley of the Logone (P168772) - (Fragility) Source: AIMDP 24 - Valorization of Investments in the Valley of the (New) Indicator 1.5: Incremental sales in targeted Benue (P166072) - (Fragility, CC) value chains (average of all value chains) Baseline (AIMDP): Volume of sales (metric ton) Target: Maize 65,700; Sorghum 10,600; Cassava 14,400 Baseline (LDP): Value of Sales (2016) Target: +20percent (2021) Source: AIMDP and LDP (New) Indicator 1.6: Increase in rice productivity in the Far North (SEMRY area) Baseline: 5 tons per ha (2018) Target: 7 tons per ha (2021) Source: Flood Emergency Project CPF Objective 2: Improved maternal and child health, and nutrition SDG 3: Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages Expected Outcomes: · Reduction in maternal mortality rates, with a particular focus on northern regions · Reduction in under-five mortality rates, with a particular focus on northern regions · Reduction in the rate of child malnutrition among children under-five Indicator 2.1: Assisted births in the Far North, North, Completed: Adamawa and East regions Knowledge: Baseline: 34.5 percent (2014) - Impact Evaluation for Health Sector PBF (P126389) Target: 55 percent (2021) - Public Expenditure Review – P161120 - (FY18) - Cameroon RBF Enhanced Program Assessment Indicator 2.2: Under-5 deaths (per 1,000 lives) in the Milestone 2.2.1: Vaccinations in the Far North, (P151315) - FY19 Far North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions North, Adamawa, regions (under-2 children fully - Cameroon Recovery and Peace Building Baseline: 147 (2014) vaccinated): 75 percent in 2021 – up from 62.4 Assessment (P160779) – FY18 Target: 90 (2021) percent in 2014 Financing: - Health Sector Support Project (P104525) FY08 25 Milestone 2.2.2: Health Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey implemented by end of 2019 Indicator 2.3: Rate of chronic malnutrition among children under 5 in the Far North, North, Adamawa, Ongoing: and East Regions Milestone 2.3.1: Financing: Baseline: 39.6 percent (2018) Children under 24 months being weighed for growth - Health System Performance Reinforcement Project Target: 35 percent (2021) monitoring in the Far North, North, Adamawa, and (P156679) FY16 East (Number): 989,834 by end of 2019 - AF Health System Performance Reinforcement (New) Indicator 2.4: Percentage of women 15-49 Project (P156679) FY18 using modern contraceptive methods in the Far North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions Knowledge: Baseline: 12.8 percent (2016) Target: 22 percent (2021) Pipeline: Knowledge: Source: MICS or DHS for target year - Programmatic Human Capital ASA (P170182) - Cameroon Investing in the Early Years (P163652) – (New) Indicator 2.5: Number of refugees who have FY20 received healthcare (curative and preventative) at - RSR TF GBV and Social Protection – FY20 health facilities Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 500,000 (2021) Source: Health project administrative data CPF Objective 3: Enhanced quality of, and more equitable access to, education SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all Expected Outcomes: · Improvement in primary completion rate: overall, by education priority zone, and by gender · Improvement in pupil textbook ratios for grades 1-5 · Improvement in pupil teacher ratio for grades 1-5 in northern regions Indicator 3.1: Primary completion rate, overall and Milestone 3.1: The new Education Sector Plan (2020- Completed: by ZEP and gender 2025) includes priority intervention addressing girl’s Knowledge: a). Overall: retention (in primary and secondary education) and - Textbooks policy note (P157279) complete) Baseline: 74 percent (2014) transition from primary to secondary. - RBF for Improved Education Service Delivery Target: 77 percent (2021) (TFA02094/P133338) – FY18 26 b). Education Priority Zones (ZEPs (*), including Milestone 3.1.2: Comprehensive operational plan - Cameroon Recovery and Peace Building northern regions): (2019-2023) approved for establishment of regular Assessment (P160779) – FY18 Baseline: 64 percent (2014) learning assessments system, including (i) unit Target: 70 percent (2021) structure, staffing, and functions; (ii) content and frequency of assessments; and (iii) conducting of Ongoing: c). Girls evaluations. Financing Baseline: 70 percent (2014) - Equity and Quality for Improved Learning Target: 75 percent (2021) (P133338) FY14 Milestone 3.1.3: Decision to implement RBF in - Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence (*) Include the Far North, North, Adamawa, East selected schools/districts in the northern regions by (P126974), Regional, FY14 certain "pockets of low levels of school participation end of 2019. - Education Reform Support Project (P160926), FY18 in the largest cities", and their border regions Knowledge: Source: Administrative data - Feasibility Study for PBF in Basic Education (trust- funded, FY18) Indicator 3.2: Pupil textbook ratio Grade 1-5 Milestone 3.2.1: Textbook policy, based on Pipeline: Baseline: 1:12 (2014) principles validated by the Prime Minister in 2017, Financing: Target: 1:2 (2021) approved by end 2019. Source: Administrative Data Knowledge: - Programmatic Human Capital ASA (P170182) Indicator 3.3: Data Percentage of primary teachers - Cameroon Investing in the Early Years (P163652) – trained in effective and efficient use of new Milestone 3.3.1: Education SDI survey implemented FY20 curriculum (including module on GBV) and textbooks by end of 2021 - GPE Cameroon Education Sector Plan 2020-2025 Baseline: 30 percent of primary teachers trained (P167867) – FY20 (2019/2020) Target: 50 percent of primary teachers trained (2020/2021) (New) Indicator 3.4: Pre-primary school gross enrollment rate Baseline: 27 percent (2014) Target: 50 percent (2021) 27 (New) Indicator 3.5: Number of public primary schools receiving package of grant funding and school level interventions in refugee-affected areas Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 100 (2021) (New) indicator 3.6 All children enrolled from grade 3 to 6 in schools under PBF have birth certificates Baseline: No (2018) Target: Yes (2021) Source (for all indicators above): Administrative data CPF Objective 4: Expanded social safety nets SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere Expected Outcomes: · Increase in the number of direct beneficiaries from the public works program · Increase in the number of households benefiting from cash transfers in the northern regions . Inclusion of refugees in the safety net system Indicator 4.1: Direct public works projects Milestone 4.1.1: Direct public works beneficiaries Completed: beneficiaries (number) (number): 9,000 in 2018; 35,000 in 2019; 40,000 in Knowledge: Baseline: 30,000 (2018) 2020 and 45,000 in 2021 - Building Productive Safety Nets (P149564) – FY18 Target: 45,000 (2021); o/w 50percent female; - Social Protection Financing Diagnostic (P161653) – of which refugees: 7,000 (women among refugees FY18 also 50 percent) - Cameroon Recovery and Peace Building Assessment (P160779) – FY18 Indicator 4.2: Number of households benefitting Milestone 4.2.1: Development and implementation from cash transfer program in northern regions of an effective targeting mechanism for cash Ongoing: (North, Far North) transfer programs by end of 2017, dissemination of Financing: Baseline: 26,000 (2018) targeting mechanism to other stakeholders in 2019, - Social Safety Nets Project (P128534) FY13 Target: 40,000 (2021); o/w 20 percent female- adoption of targeting mechanism of the Safety Net - AF to the Social Safety Nets Project (P128534) headed households Project by at least one other program by end 2020. Knowledge: Safety Net project administrative data Milestone 4.2.2: Agreement with Government on -Qualitative evaluation of GBV prevention potential scaling up by end of 2018, significant Government of Accompanying Measures (Current RSR, FY20) 28 budget contribution by end CY 2019, sustainable -Development of new innovative GBV prevention (multi-year) Government budget contribution from instruments (RSR – awaiting ASA code, FY22) 2021. -Quantitative Evaluation of new instrument’s impact for refugees and hosts (DFID TF, FY21) (New) Indicator 4.3: Number of refugees registered Milestone 4.3.1: First refugees registered by end in the MIS of the Social Safety Net Project CY2019; 5,000 in 2020; 10,000 in 2021. Pipeline: Baseline: 0 (2019) Financing: Target: 10,000 (2021) - Regional Lake Chad Recovery and Development Project (P161706) FY19 Source: Social Safety Nets, Community Development Program Support; Education Reform Support Knowledge: Project; Health System Performance Reinforcement -Programmatic Human Capital ASA (P170182) Project) - Cameroon: Scaling up the Safety Net to Respond to Crises (P165705) – FY20 (New) Indicator 4.4: Tailored approach in place in - SPF: Cross-Border Collaboration in the Lake Chad response of the crisis in the NW-SW regions Region (P169400) – FY20 Baseline: No (2019) - Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Target: Yes (2020) Conflict in the NW and SW – FY20 Source: WBG program CPF Objective 5: Improved access to local infrastructure SDG6: Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all SDG 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Expected Outcomes: · Increase in access to drainage · Increase in the number of people with access to improved sanitation facilities · Increase in kilometers of urban and rural roads rehabilitated · Increase in access to electricity in rural areas, particularly in the northern regions Indicator 5.1: Roads rehabilitated Milestone 5.1.1: Procurement for contracts for 30 Completed: km of urban roads underway by end of 2019. Knowledge: a) Km of roads rehabilitated in rural areas - Urban Sector Review and Poverty Assessment / Baseline: 465 (2018) New Name: Cameroon City Competitiveness Target: 905 (2021) Diagnostic – Enhancing the Economic Performance of African Cities (P158599) - FY18 29 Source: Agriculture Investment & Market Development Project, Community Development Ongoing: Program - Phase III Financing: - Community Development Program Support Project b) Additional people provided with access to all- Phase III (P144637) FY16 Additional Financing FY18 season roads - Agriculture Investment and Market Development Baseline: 0 (2017) Project (P143417) FY15 Target: 48,000 (2021) - Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 - CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project Source: Inclusive and Resilient Cities Project (P079736) FY07 - Transport Sector Development Project (P150999) c) Additional km of national roads rehabilitated FY17 Baseline: 0 (2016) - Livestock Development Project (P154908) FY17 Target: 195 km (2021) - Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 - Access to Electricity in Northern Regions Project Source: CEMAC Transit and Transport Facilitation (FY19) Project, Multimodal Transport Project, Transport Sector Development Project Pipeline: Financing: (New) Indicator 5.2: Number of additional people - Douala Urban Mobility Project (P167795) (FY21) protected from floods in the targeted localities Source: Flood Emergency Protection Project Knowledge: Baseline: 0 (2012) - Urban Sector Review and Poverty Assessment Target: 87,940 (2021) (FY18) (New) Indicator 5.3: Number of Refugees benefitting directly from local council investments Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 125,000 (2021) Of which Female Refugees: 62,500 Source: Community Development Program Support Project Phase III (P144637) CPF PILLAR TWO: FOSTERING INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT Growth and Employment Strategy (2020) goals supported: 30 · infrastructure development: energy, transport, urban development · private sector development: Rural sector, increasing agricultural production, livestock, fisheries and agri-business, forestry, agricultural information Issues addressed: · insufficient, costly, poorly distributed power · high cost and poor quality of transport CPF Objective 6: Increased national availability of electricity SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all Expected Outcomes: · Additional MW of electricity generated, with a focus on renewable energy and public private partnership arrangements · Reduction in annual power outages Indicator 6.1: a) Additional MWs of renewable Milestone 6.1.1: Completion of Lom Pangar Power Completed: electricity generated: Station (30 MW) by end of 2020. Financing: Baseline: 0 MW (2015) - Energy Sector Development Project SIL (P104456) Target: 150 MW (2021) FY08 b) Additional MWs under PPP under construction Baseline: 0 MW (2015) Ongoing: Target: 420 MW (2021) Financing: - Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (P114077) FY12 Source: Lom Pangar Hydropower Project; Nachtigal - Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177) FY12 Hydropower Project; Hydropower Development on - IBRD: Electricity Transmission and Reform Project the Sanaga River Project (P152755) FY17 - IBRD Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734, Indicator 6.2: Milestone 6.2.1: Short term electricity transmission FY17) Duration as measured by System Average investment program completed by end of 2021 - Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) – TOTAL Value Project (P157733, FY17) Chain - Access to Electricity in Northern Regions Project Baseline: 160 hours (2015) (P163881) - FY19 Target: 35 hours (2021) IFC: Source: ENEO/ Agence de Régulation du Secteur de - Kribi Power Development Company SA (25978) l’Electricité (ARSEL, [Electricity Sector Regulatory FY10 Agency] - Dibamba power development company (28529) FY10 - AES Sonel (11579) FY06 31 MIGA: - Kribi Gas Power Project - Dibamba Power Development Company Knowledge: Pipeline: Financing: IFC - IFC (CAPEX ENEO) - Nachtigal Hydropower Project (Equity and loan, FY17) MIGA: - Nachtigal Hydropower Project (Equity cover, FY19) CPF Objective 7: Improved transport services SDG 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation Expected Outcomes: · Reduction in the costs of road transport between Douala and N’Djamena · Increase in rail freight volumes between Douala and Ngaoundere · Further reduction in the average dwell time in Douala port · Increased access to broadband internet services Indicator 7.1: Road transport prices per container Milestone 7.1.1: 1,600 kms of roads in good Completed: between Douala and N’Djamena and per ton-km in condition by end of 2019 Knowledge: US$ -CEMAC Trade Facilitation and Trade Corridor Baseline: 6,000 (2014) Milestone 7.1.2: Number of roadblocks/checks Analysis (P168137) -FY19 Target: 5,600 (2021) reduced to 3 per 100 kms by end of 2019 Source: Multimodal Transport Project Ongoing: Indicator 7.2: Rail freight volumes transported along Milestone 7.2.1: 175 kms of railways Knowledge: the Douala-Ngaoundere corridor by train per year (in rehabilitated/extended by 2020 million tons/year) Financing: 32 Baseline: 1.90 (2014) - CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project Target: 2.30 (2021) (P079736) FY07 - Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 Indicator 7.3: - Transport Sector Development Project (P150999) Transaction dwell time in Douala port in days FY17 Baseline: 11 (2007) Target: 8 (2021) Pipeline: Financing: Source: CEMAC TTFP - ICT Sector Reform Project (P161219. FY22) Knowledge: - Analytical work financed under the ongoing portfolio, e.g.: (i) integrated intermodal Transport Sector Strategy; (ii) trucking industry survey; and (iii) environmental and social strategic assessment for the transport sector. - Increasing the Competitiveness of the Transport Sector (FY18) - Harmonization of the legal and instutional Framework for PPPs (TF0A6094/P150999) – FY20 - Digital Economy for Africa (DE4A) for Cameroon (P170160) CPF Objective 8: Improved business environment and access to financial services SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Expected Outcomes: · Reduction in the number of days to register an enterprise and to start a business · Reduction in the number of payments of taxes per year · Establishment of a credit bureau, and its coverage in terms of number of firms 33 Indicator 8.1: Reduction of the number of days to Milestone 8.1.1: One-stop-shop for business entry Completed: register an enterprise for starting a business and e-registration for enterprises fully implemented Knowledge: Baseline: 15 days (2016) across Cameroon by end of 2021 Business environment reform support in Cameroon Target: 8 days (2021) (P165760) – FY19 Indicator 8.2: Establishment of a Credit Bureau- Milestone 8.2.1: At least one credit bureau Cameroon Secured Transactions and Collateral Number of firms cover by this credit Bureau operational by end of 2020 Registry (P160072) - FY19 Baseline: 0 (2016) Target: 10,000 firms and 30,000 individuals (2021) Milestone 8.2.2: Monitoring of women covered by Ongoing: Credit Bureau in place by end of 2021 Financing: Source: Doing Business Index - Improved Investment Climate within OHADA (Regional IDA, P126663) FY12 Indicator 8.3: Direct compliance cost savings (US$) - CEMAC Institutions Capacity Building Project II (from simplifying registration, licensing and (P161368) inspection systems for SMEs) - Improved Investment Climate within OHADA Baseline: 0 (2014) Project II (P126663) Target: US$25 million (2021) IFC: Source: ASOP IFC - Banque Internationale du Cameroun pour Milestone 8.4.1 Online moveable asset collateral l’Epargne et le Crédit (34915) FY15 (New) Indicator 8.4: Number of firms that have registry operational by end of 2019 - Activa Finances ltd (31215) FY13 received loans secured with movable property as - Société Civile Immobilière Sigs (27923) FY12 reflected in the online movable asset collateral - EB ACCION Microfinance SA (27966) FY09 registry - Advans Cameroun (25392) FY07 Baseline: 0 (2016) - Afriland First Bank Cameroon (600986) Target: 1,800 (2021) Knowledge: Source: Bank of Central Africa States (BEAC) - Doing Business Index TA with IFC - Cameroon IC Project (594287) and Doing Business Advisory Service TA Pipeline: Knowledge: - Land Administration and Land Use Planning (P165302) - FY20 34 - Africa Enterprise Surveys (P166754) – FY20 - Cameroon #F011 Financial Stability (P167839) – FY20 - CEMAC Housing Finance Market Diagnosis (P167882) - Cameroon Private Sector Diagnostic CPF Objective 9: Setting up fundamentals for labor market responsive skills development system SDG 4: Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote life-long learning opportunities for all SDG 8: Promote sustained, inclusive and sustainable economic growth, full and productive employment and decent work for all Expected Outcome: · Increase in TVET student enrollment in priority sectors, overall and by gender Indicator 9.1: Establishment of Skills Development Completed: Fund Knowledge: Baseline: No - Cameroon Skills for Jobs & Eco diversification Target: Yes (Fund established by the end of CY2021) (P152086) – FY18 Ongoing: Financing: - Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence Project (P126974), Regional, FY14 Pipeline: Financing: - Secondary Education and Skills Development Project (P170561) - FY21 CPF PILLAR THREE: IMPROVING GOVERNANCE Growth and Employment Strategy goals (2020) supported: · strengthening the campaign against corruption · improving citizen access to information · decentralization 35 · public sector reform · results-based management · production of annual statistics Cross-cutting sustainable development goals (SDGs) supported: · SDG 1: End poverty in all its forms everywhere · SDG 5: Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls · SDG 10: Reduce inequality within and among countries Issues addressed: · poor allocation and weak execution of public expenditure · weak business regulatory environment · inefficient and ineffective public administration · lack of transparency and accountability · weak demand for accountability CPF Objective 10: Improved efficiency of public expenditure and service delivery SDG 17: Strengthen the means of implementation and revitalize the global partnership for sustainable development Expected Outcomes: · Increase in the share of central public investment derived from Local Development Plans · Increase in the number of local councils publishing annual accounts · Increase in execution rates of local councils’ investment budgets · Improved performance in health PBF districts · Improved performance in PBF schools Indicator 10.1: Local plans Completed: Share of decentralized Public Investment Budget projects derived from Local Development Plans Knowledge: (percentage) - Country Economic Memorandum (P144132) – FY17 Baseline: 58 percent (2016) - Public Expenditure Review (P161120) - (FY18) Target: 70 percent (by March 2020) - Civil Service and Wage Bill Management Analysis (P164266) - (FY19) Indicator 10.2: Local accounts Percent of local councils producing annual accounts Ongoing: on SIM_BA software Baseline: 8 percent (2014) Financing: Target: 50 percent (by March 2020) 36 - Community Development Program Support Project Source: Community Development Program Support Phase III (P144637) FY16 Project Phase III - Health System Performance Reinforcement Project (P156679) FY16 Indicator 10.3: Execution rates Milestone 10.3.1: List of implementation-ready - Education Reform Support Project (P160926) FY19 Share of public investment budgets executed projects established, and performance contract - Cameroon – Strengthening Public Sector (‘ordonnancé’) by year end (December 31st) piloted. Effectiveness and Statistical Capacity Project Baseline: 36 percent (2014) (P151155) FY18 Target: 80 percent (FY21) Pipeline: Source: Budget Department, Ministry of Finance - National Committee Report 2018 Financing: Indicator 10.4: Improved performance in health RBF Milestone 10.4.1: Percentage of facilities with Knowledge: districts 100percent tracer drugs available in targeted health - Civil Service Pay Reform (P167989) Average RBF district score for quality of care facilities on the day of the visit: 35 percent by end of - Cameroon Deepening Decentralization to Improve Baseline: 30 percent (2014) 2021 Service Delivery (P167932) Target: 70 percent (2021) - Continued Debt Policy Management Analysis Milestone 10.4.2: Number of health districts covered - Removing Broad Based Subsidies Source: Ministry of Health (MoH) checklist report by RBF: 175 by June 2020 from PBF statistics Indicator 10.5: Improved performance in schools Milestone 10.5.1: Government set up a direct Number of schools funded through results-based payment mechanism to improve school functioning contracts in target areas and performance. Baseline: 20 (2018) Target: 900 (2021) Source: Ministry of Education (New) Indicator 10.6: Average time between the issuance of tender documents and the signing of respective public contracts 37 a. For contracts under Public Procurement Ministry (MINMAP) threshold Baseline: 128 days (2016) Target: 90 days (2021) b. For contracts above the MINMAP threshold: Baseline: 225 days (2016) Target: 150 days (2021) Source: Value Chain Analysis carried out by the World Bank (New) Indicator 10.7: Percentage of communes having obtained at least the mid-point score in the Performance Based Grant from the CDD operations. Baseline: 24 (2017) Target: 30 (2021) Source: Community Development Program Support Project Phase III CPF Objective 11: Improved regulatory and institutional framework for key sectors SDG 7: Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all SDG 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialization and foster innovation SDG 11: Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable SDG: Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts Expected Outcomes: · Establishment of an operational National Electricity Transmission Operator · Increased use of the Road Fund · Improved transparency in mining sector management · Improved urban management, planning and support to decentralization · Strengthened capacity in REDD+ issues 38 Indicator 11.1: Increased use of Road Fund Share of Milestone 11.1: Road Fund rules revised by end of Completed. annual Road Fund resources collected and spent on 2019 road maintenance Source: Knowledge: Baseline: 55 percent (2015) -Review of Commercial SOE sector in Cameroon Target: 60 percent (2021) (P164253) – FY19 Source: Transport Sector Development Project" Ongoing: Financing: Indicator 11.2: Improved transparency in mining - Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (P114077) FY12 sector management - Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177) FY12 Public online access to historic and newly acquired - Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 geo-data information - CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project Baseline: No (2012) (P079736) FY07 Target: Yes (2021) - Agriculture Investment and Market Development Project (P143147) FY15 Source: Mining Sector TA Project - Flood Emergency Project (P143940) FY13 - Ngoyla Mintom Project (P118018) FY12 Indicator 11.3: Improved urban management, Milestone 11.3.1: Number of city contracts with - Electricity Transmission and Reform Project planning and support to decentralization municipal management programs signed by end of (P152755) FY17 Local Governments that implement asset 2019 - Transport Sector Development Project (P150999) management plans as specified in the city FY17 development contracts - Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734 GU) FY18 Baseline: 0 (2017) - Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 Target: 4 (2021) Source: Inclusive Cities Project IFC: - Kribi Power Development Company SA (25978) Indicator 11.4: Strengthened capacity in REDD+ FY10 issues - Dibamba Power Development Company (28529) GOC contribution to joint Congo Basin submission to FY10 UNFCCC Baseline: 0 (2014) Knowledge: Target: Submitted (2020) - Doing Business Index TA with IFC - Mining Sector TA Project (P122153) FY12, AF Mining Sector TA Project (P122153) FY17 39 Source: Enhancing Institutional Capacities on REDD+ - Enhancing Institutional Capacities on REDD+ Issues Issues for Sustainable Forest Management in the for Sustainable Forest Management in the Congo Congo Basin Project Basin Project FY12 (New) Indicator 11.5: Number of SOEs publishing Pipeline: their audited annual financial reports within the prescribed deadlines Financing Baseline: 0 (2016) - Douala Urban Mobility Project (P166795) -FY21 Target: The 10 largest public enterprises and the 10 largest public institutions (2021) Knowledge - Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River Source: Ministry of Finance Project (P157773) FY17 – TA component - Land Administration and Land Use Planning (FY20) CPF Objective 12: Increased citizen engagement at local level SDG 16: Promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development, provide access to justice for all and build effective, accountable and inclusive institutions at all levels Expected Outcomes: · Increase in the use of users’ surveys at local council level · Increase in satisfaction rates of beneficiaries for local investment Indicator 12.1: Local facilities Completed: Local councils with at least one user survey over previous 2 years (basic education, local councils’ Financing services, water, health) - Health Sector Support Project (P146795) FY08, AF Baseline: 10 (2015) FY14 Target: 160 (2020) Ongoing: Source: Community Development Program Support Project Phase III Financing - Community Development Program Support Project Indicator 12.2: Multisector user feedback Phase III (P144637) FY16 Share of beneficiaries that feel project investments - Health System Performance Reinforcement Project reflected their needs. (P156679) FY16 Baseline: 0 (2015) - Livestock Development Project (P154908) FY17 Target: 70 percent average (2021) - Safety Net Project (P128534) FY13 40 Source: Community Development Program Support AF to Community Development Program Support Project Phase III, Inclusive Cities Project, AIMDP, Project Phase III Livestock Development Project, Safety Nets Project, - Education Reform Support Project FY19 Health System Performance Project, Education - Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 Reform Support Project Knowledge (New) Indicator 12.3: All Project Implementation - Impact evaluation for health sector PBF Units have revised their GRMs, reinforced their capacities and implement them in the field. Baseline: No Target: Yes Source: Whole active portfolio (New) Indicator 12.4: Refugees inclusion Village Development Committee of refugee host villages with at least one refugee represented in the committee/bureau Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 40 (2021) Source: Community Development Program Support Project Phase III (P144637) 41 Annex 2: Summary of Changes to Original CPF Results Matrix Original CPF Results Matrix Updated CPF Results Matrix Comments CPF PILLAR 1 (Revised): ADDRESSING MULTIPLE POVERTY TRAPS AND FRAGILITY (WITH FOCUS ON NORTHERN REGIONS) CPF Objective 1: Increased productivity and access to markets in the agriculture and livestock sectors Indicator 1.1: Increased yields (maize, sorghum, cassava) Indicator 1.1: Increased yields (maize, For Sorghum, target changed to 2t/ha (2021) due to the in target areas sorghum, cassava) in target areas delays in implementation of relevant activities. Target: Sorghum 3t/ha (2021) Target: Sorghum 2t/ha (2021) Indicator 1.1: Increased yields (maize, sorghum, cassava) Dropped This indicator is not specifically measured for Northern in target areas regions. o/w in northern regions Indicator 1.2: Increased productivity of targeted Indicator 1.2: Increased productivity of Target for ruminants (12 percent) still achievable but for livestock species by farmers and pastoralists targeted livestock species by farmers and 2021, given late effectiveness of the project. Target for beneficiaries in target areas pastoralists beneficiaries in target areas broiler revised downward given late effectiveness of Ruminants (mortality rate): Ruminants (mortality rate): project. Target: 12 percent (2019) Target: 12percent (2021) Broiler (kg of live weight per m2 per year: Broiler (kg of live weight per m2 per year: Baseline (2016): 60 Target: 75 (2021) Target (2019): 90 Indicator 1.3: Farmers and livestock owners reached Indicator 1.3: Farmers and livestock owners Revised the target for women to a more realistic level of with agriculture assets or services reached with agriculture assets or services 50percent instead of 70percent. Target: o/w women: 70 percent Target: o/w women: 50 percent Indicator 1.5: Incremental sales in targeted value chainsIndicator 1.5: Incremental sales in targeted Adjusted target date to reflect change in unit of measure (average of all value chains) value chains (average of all value chains) for agriculture project only (AIMDP) Baseline (2016): value of sales Target (AIMDP): Volume of sales (metric Target: + 20 percent in value of sales Volume of sales ton) – Maize 65,700; Sorghum 10,600; Cassava 14,400 (2021) (New) Indicator 1.6: Increase in rice Added indicator reflecting results from the Flood productivity in the Far North (SEMRY area) Emergency Project. Baseline: 5 tons per ha (2018) Target: 7 tons per ha (2021) CPF Objective 2: Improved maternal and child health, and nutrition 42 Indicator 2.1: Maternal mortality during birth in the Far Indicator 2.1: Assisted births in the Far The data for the maternal mortality rate is not available North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions (per 100,000 North, North, Adamawa, and East regions with sufficient frequency. Therefore, this indicator is births) Baseline: 34.5 percent (2014) replaced by assisted births. Baseline: 782 (2011) Target: 55 percent (2021) Target: 590 (2021) Milestone 2.1: Assisted births in the northern and East Milestone 2.1 dropped, converted to regions: 55 percent in 2021 – up from 34.5 percent in indicator 2.1 2014 Indicator 2.2: Under-5 deaths (per 1,000 lives) Indicator 2.2: (Source MICS or DHS for Reformulated to focus on the northern and east regions Baseline: 103 (2014) target year) Under-5 deaths (per 1,000 Target: 85 (2021) lives) in the Far North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions o/w in Northern regions Baseline: 147 (2014) Baseline: 173 (2014) Target: 90 (2021) Target: 115 (2021) Milestone 2.2.1: Vaccinations in the northern regions Milestone 2.2.1: Vaccinations in the Revised to correct wrong baseline and reflect realistic (under-2 children fully vaccinated): 80 percent in 2021 – northern regions (under-2 children fully results as of end of CY 2021, 80 percent being the target up from 65.7 percent in 2014. vaccinated): 75 percent in 2021 – up from for 2022. 62.4 percent in 2014. Milestone 2.2.2: Health Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) Milestone 2.2.2: Health Service Delivery Year changed to reflect slow implementation survey implemented by 2018 Indicators (SDI) survey implemented by the end of 2019 Indicator 2.3: Rate of chronic malnutrition among Indicator 2.3: Rate of chronic malnutrition Reformulated to reflect focus on northern regions children under 5 among children under 5 in the Far North, Baseline: 32 percent (2014) North, Adamawa, and East Regions Target: 25 percent (2021) Baseline: 39.6 percent (2018) Target: 35 percent (2019) New Indicator 2.4: Percentage of women 15-49 using modern contraceptive methods in the Far North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions Baseline: 12.8percent (2016) Target: 22percent (2021) (Source MICS or DHS for target year) To reflect the activities financed under the IDA18 RSW 43 New Indicator 2.5: (Health project administrative data) Number of refugees who have received healthcare (curative and preventative) at health facilities Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 500,000 (2021) CPF Objective 3: Enhanced quality of, and more equitable access to, education New Milestone 3.1: The new Education Reflects the need to include operational action in the Sector Plan (2020-2025) includes priority Education Sector Strategy to address gender gaps in intervention addressing girl’s retention (in education (access, completion). primary and secondary education) and transition from primary to secondary. New textbook policy approved by end of 2017 Milestone 3.1.2: Comprehensive operational Updated milestone because the reform took more time plan (2019-23) approved for establishment to implement than originally planned. of regular learning assessments system, including (i) unit structure, staffing, and functions; (ii) content and frequency of assessments; and (iii) conducting of evaluations. Milestone 3.3: Education SDI survey implemented by Milestone 3.3.1: Education SDI survey Updated the indicator to reflect the delay in the end of 2018 implemented by end of 2021 completion of the survey Indicator 3.3: Pupil teacher ratio (excluding “parent Indicator 3.3: Percentage of primary Update the indicator to reflect the latest situation. teachers”) at grades 1 to 5 in the northern regions teachers trained in effective and efficient Under the new Education Reform Support Project, all (North, North-West, Far North and Adamawa) use of new curriculum (including GBV primary school teachers will be progressively trained in Baseline: 120 (2013/14) module) and textbooks efficient use of new curriculum that includes a module Target: 70 (2021) Baseline: 30 percent of primary teachers on GVB. trained (2019/2020) Target: 50 percent of primary teachers trained (2020/2021) New Indicator 3.4: Pre-primary school gross Considering the importance of preschool for HC, added enrollment rate this indicator. Baseline: 27 percent (2014) Target: 50 percent (2021) 44 New Indicator 3.5: Number of public To reflect the activities financed under the IDA18 RSW primary schools receiving package of grant funding and school level interventions in refugee affected areas Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 100 (2021) New Indicator 3.6: All children enrolled Lack of birth certificates prevents children from taking from grade 3 to 6 in schools under PBF have their final exams in primary educations and thus birth certificates represents a major bottleneck to transition to secondary Baseline: No (2018) education, hence it is important to address this, starting Target: Yes (2021) with PBF schools CPF Objective 4: Expanded social safety nets Indicator 4.1: Direct public works projects beneficiaries Revised Indicator 4.1: Direct public works Updated to reflect expansion of safety net. (number) projects beneficiaries (number) Baseline: 0 (2015) Baseline: 30,000 (2018) Measure inclusion of refugees as beneficiaries under the Target: 30,000 (2018); o/w 45 percent female; Target: 45,000 (2021); o/w 50 percent Additional Financing. female; of which refugees: 7,000 (women among refugees also 50 percent) Milestone 4.1: Direct public works beneficiaries Revised Milestone 4.1.1: Direct public works Updated to reflect expansion of safety net. (number): 8,000 in 2016, 13,000 in 2017, 9,000 in 2018 beneficiaries (number): 9,000 in 2018, 35,000 in 2019; 40,000 in 2020, and 45,000 in 2021 Indicator 4.2: Revised Indicator 4.2: Number of Updated to reflect expansion of safety net. Number of households benefitting from cash transfer households benefitting from cash transfer program in northern regions (North, Far North) program in northern regions (North, Far Baseline: 4,000 (2015) North) Target: 26,000 (2018); o/w 20 percent female-headed Baseline: 26,000 (2018) households Target: 40,000 (2021); o/w 20 percent female-headed households Milestone 4.2.1: Development and implementation of an Revised Milestone 4.2.1: Development and Reflects and measures progress of targeting dialogue effective targeting mechanism for cash transfer programs implementation of an effective targeting countrywide. by end of 2017 mechanism for cash transfer programs by end of 2017, dissemination of targeting mechanism to other stakeholders in 2019, 45 adoption of the targeting mechanism of the Safety Net Project by at least one other program by end 2020. Milestone 4.2.2: Agreement with Government on scaling Revised Milestone 4.2.2: Agreement with Reflect and measure progress of dialogue on up by end of 2018 Government on scaling up by end of 2018, Government’s sustainable budget commitment to the Government budget contribution by end CY social safety net. 2019, sustainable Government budget contribution from 2021. New Indicator 4.3: Number of refugees Indicator added to measure the inclusion of refugees registered in the MIS of the Social Safety Net from all programs financed RSW. Project Baseline: 0 (2019) Target: 10,000 (2021) New Milestone 4.3.1: First refugees registered by end CY2019; 5,000 in 2020; 10,000 in 2021 New Indicator 4.4: Tailored approach in place in response of the crisis in the NW- SW regions Baseline: No (2019) Target: Yes (2020) CPF Objective 5: Improved access to local infrastructure Indicator 5.1: Additional people provided with access to Dropped Due to late effectiveness of the Inclusive and Resilient drainage Cities Development Project the drainage works will not be completed by the end of the CPF period. Milestone 5.1: Contracts implemented for 31 km of Dropped Due to late effectiveness of the Inclusive and Resilient drains by 2019. Cities Development Project the drainage works will not be completed by the end of the CPF period. Indicator 5.2: People provided with access to improved Dropped The project closed with good achievements in rural areas sanitation facilities with more than 100,000 people serviced by the a) in target rural areas Sanitation Project compared to a target of 25,000. Baseline: 0 (2011) Outcome in urban areas (5b) was less successful. Early Target: 25,000 (2017) assessment of the project identified dry latrines as the more suitable and affordable for both urban and rural b) in target urban areas areas but during implementation, beneficiaries preferred 46 Baseline: 0 (2011) water-flushed rather than dry latrines, particularly in the Target: 85,000 (2017) urban areas in Douala. This led to lowered urban participation. In addition to that late effectiveness and slow procurement process also led to dropping of activities. Indicator 5.3: Roads rehabilitated Renumbered as Indicator 5.1: Roads Indicator revised to take into account the restructuring a) Km of roads rehabilitated in rural areas rehabilitated and delays in implementation of Agriculture Investment Baseline: 0 (2014) a) Km of roads rehabilitated in rural areas and Market Development Project. Target: 1270 (2022) Baseline: 465 (2018) Target: 905 (2021) Indicator 5.3 b) Additional people provided with access Renumbered as Indicator 5.1 b) Additional Target revised to take into account that works are under to all-season roads people provided with access to all-season way in only two cities. Works in the other five cities will Baseline: 0 roads not be completed by end of CPF period, due to late Target: 660,000 (2022) Baseline: 0 effectiveness of the Inclusive and Resilient Cities Project. Target: 48,000 (2021) Indicator 5.3 c) Additional km of national roads Renumbered as Indicator 5.1 c) Additional Target revised as it was based on the whole Government rehabilitated km of national roads rehabilitated program. Target is now based on roads rehabilitated Baseline: 0 (2016) Baseline: 0 (2016) under World Bank financed projects. Target: 330 km (2021) Target: 195 km (2021) Milestone 5.3: Contracts implemented for 16 km of Revised Milestone 5.1.1: Procurement for Milestone changed to reflect late effectiveness of the urban roads by 2019. contracts for 30 km of urban roads Inclusive and Resilient Cities Project. underway by end of 2019 Indicator 5.4: Access to electricity Dropped Project approved in December 2018 and will take some Milestone 5.4: 122 localities electrified by 2020 Dropped time to be effective. Indicator and milestone are strengthening of the three national transmission dropped since the projects is unlikely to achieve results networks completed by 2019 by end of 2021. New Indicator 5.2: Number of additional Reflects people protected from floods under the Flood people protected from floods in the Emergency Project. targeted localities Baseline: 0 (2012) Target: 87,940 (2021) (New) Indicator 5.3 Number of Refugees New indicator to reflect activities financed under the benefitting directly from local council Refugee sub-Window. investments Baseline: 0 (2018) 47 Target: 125,000 Of which Female Refugees: 62,500 CPF Objective 6: Increased national availability of electricity Indicator 6.1: Additional MWs of electricity generated Revised Indicator 6.1: a) Additional MWs of Target revised to take into account the drop of Phase Baseline (2015): 0 MWs renewable electricity generated two of Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177) and delay in Target by 2021: 820 MW (2021) Target: 150 MW (2021) delivery of Nachtigal Hydropower Project. All additional electricity generated is renewable. Of which: Dropped Renewable: Baseline (2015): 0 MWs Target by 2021: 820 MWs Under PPP Revised b) Additional MWs under PPP Baseline (2015): 0 MW under construction Nachtigal hydropower project (420 MW) was approved Target by 2021: 420 MW Baseline: 0 MW (2015) by the Board in July 2018 and reached financial close in Target: 420 MW (2021) December 2018 under PPP format. Works are to be launched and the Nachtigal Hydropower Project is expected to be commissioned in 2023 Indicator 6.2: Total annual power outages per customer Dropped Investments under SONATREL will not be completed by Duration as measured by System Average Interruption the end of the CPF period. Duration Index (SAIDI) due to the Transmission Network Milestone 6.2.3: Nachtigal Hydropower Project Dropped The first unit of Nachtigal will not be commissioned until commissioned by end of 2021 after the CPF period. New Indicator 6.2: Duration as measured by System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) – Total Value Chain Baseline: 160 hours (2015) Target: 35 hours (2021) Revised Milestone 6.2.1: Short term electricity transmission investment program completed by end of 2021 CPF Objective 7: Improved transport and ICT services (Narrowed to “Improved transport services”) 48 Milestone 7.2: 500 km of railways Revised Milestone: 175 Kms of railways Original target was not accurate. Revised to reflect rehabilitated/extended by end of 2019 rehabilitated/extended by 2020 actual activities planned under CEMAC TTFP project. Indicator 7.3: Transaction Dwell time in Douala port in Revised Indicator 7.3: Transaction Dwell Initial indicator was not realistic. The dwell time has days time in Douala port in days been revised within the framework of DPO1. Baseline: 11 (2007) Baseline: 11 (2007) Target: 6 (2019) Target: 8 (2021) Indicator 7.4: Access to broadband Internet services Dropped The planned project is proceeding with considerable (fixed and mobile) delays CPF Objective 8: Improved business environment and access to financial services Indicator 8.1: Reduction of the number of days to Revised Indicator 8.1: Reduction of the While improvements are expected, the revised target is register an enterprise for starting a business number of days to register an enterprise more realistic, while still representing considerable Target: 3 days (2022) for starting a business progress. Only the top performing economies reach a Target: 8 days (2021) target of 3 days. Indicator 8.2: Reduction of the number of payments of Dropped The WBG has no program to support progress against taxes per year this indicator. Milestone 8.2: E-declaration and e-payment for paying Dropped The WBG has no program to support this progress taxes by 2020 against indicator. New Indicator 8.2 Establishment of a Credit Bureau-Number of firm covered by this credit Bureau Baseline: 0 (2016) Target: 10,000 firms and 30,000 individuals (2021) New Milestone 8.2.1: At least one credit bureau operational by end of 2020 Indicator 8.3: Direct compliance cost savings (US$) Revised Indicator 8.3: Direct compliance Increased direct compliance cost savings (CCS) target (from simplifying registration, licensing and inspection cost savings (US$) (from simplifying from US$8 million to US$25 million, since total CCS systems for SMEs) registration, licensing and inspection figures by end of FY18 had already reached US$17.4 Baseline: 0 (2014) systems for SMEs) million, well above the original target. Target: US$8 million (2021) Baseline: 0 (2014) Revised Target: US$25 million (2021) Milestone 8.4: Monitoring of women covered by Credit Renumbered as Milestone 8.2.2: Monitoring Bureau in place by end of 2021 of women covered by Credit Bureau in place by end of 2021 49 New Indicator 8.4 Number of firms that To reflect actual commitment of Cameroon. This activity have received loans secured with movable is led by the National Credit Council and with Cameroon property as reflected in the online movable driving the reform it would set an example for the other collateral registry CEMAC members. Baseline: 0 (2016) Target: 1,800 (2021) New Milestone 8.4.1 Online moveable asset collateral registry operational by end of 2019 Indicator 8.5 Number of SMEs that have received loans Dropped secured with movable property (#) Original CPF Objective 9: Increased supply of skills demanded by the labor market Revised CPF Objective 9: Setting up fundamentals for labor market responsive skills development system Objective 9 title updated to reflect the delay in preparation of the relevant project Indicator 9.1: Percent of TVET students (secondary and Dropped tertiary levels) enrolled in priority sectors/subject areas. Baseline: 60 percent (2015) Target: 70 percent (2021) with at least 25 percent of girls New Indicator 9.1: Establishment of Skills Development Fund Target: Established by the end of 2021 (calendar year) Milestone 9: Framework for PPPs in TVET established Dropped Reflects delay in the preparation of the relevant project 2019 CPF Objective 10: Improved efficiency of public expenditure and service delivery Indicator 10.1: Share of decentralized Public Revised Indicator 10.1: Share of The original baseline is incorrect. Revised to 58 percent. Investment Budget projects derived from Local decentralized Public Investment Budget Development Plans (percentage) projects derived from Local Development Baseline: 65 percent Plans (percentage) Target: 77 percent (by March 2020) Baseline: 58 percent (2016) Target: 70 percent (by March 2020) 50 Indicator 10.3: Share of public investment budgets Revised Indicator 10.3: Share of public The original baseline is incorrect. Revised to 36 percent. executed (‘ordonnancé’) by year end (December 31st) investment budgets executed Baseline: 50 percent (2015) (‘ordonnancé’) by year end (December Target: 80 percent (2021) 31st) Baseline: 36 percent (2014) Target: 80 percent (2021) Indicator 10.4: Improved performance in health RBF Revised Indicator 10.4: Improved This indicator is improving very quickly because of rapid districts Average RBF district score for quality of care performance in health RBF districts scaling up of PBF, which has a great potential to improve Target: 50 percent (2021) Average RBF district score for quality of the quality of health care. care Target: 70 percent (2021) Milestone 10.4.1: Percentage of facilities with 100 Revised Milestone 10.4.1: Percentage of Target changed to 35 percent, because the availability of percent tracer drugs available in targeted health facilities with 100 percent tracer drugs drugs in CENAME and the right of health facilities to facilities on the day of the visit: 40 percent by end of available in targeted health facilities on the purchase drugs freely from private accredited drugs 2021 day of the visit: 35 percent by end of 2021 wholesaler remains a challenge. Milestone 10.4.2: Number of health districts covered by Revised Milestone 10.4.2: Number of health The target can be increased because of rapid scaling up RBF: 100 by 2018 districts covered by RBF: 175 by June 2020 of PBF. Indicator 10.5: Improved performance in schools. Revised Indicator 10.5 Improved 20 primary schools were selected by Ministry of Basic Number of schools funded through results-based performance in schools. Number of schools Education as a pre-pilot during 2017-2018 school year: contracts in target areas funded through results-based contracts in baseline is 20 (pilot 2018); 900 by end of 2021. Baseline: 0 (2015) target areas Target: 400 (2020) Baseline: 20 (2018) Target: 900 (2021) Milestone 10.5.1: Number of schools with a functioning Dropped and replaced This milestone is difficult to monitor as this is not part of management committee led by a community member: the indicators collected by MINEDUB. It will not be 400 by 2020 possible to disaggregate by region. New Milestone 10.5.1: Government set up a The original indicator is not clearly defined. Propose to direct payment mechanism to improve replace it with this new one. school functioning and performance. New Indicator 10.6: Average time between To reflect prior actions included in the DPO the issuance of tender documents and the signing of respective public contracts For contracts under Public Procurement Ministry (MINMAP) threshold Baseline: 128 days (2016) 51 Target: 90 days (2020) For contracts above the MINMAP threshold Baseline: 225 days (2016) Target: 150 days (2020) New Indicator 10.7: Percentage of To adjust to projected results and better reflect communes having obtained at least the communes’ accountability. mid-point score in the Performance Based Grant from the CDD operations Baseline: 24 percent (2017) Target: 30 percent (2021) CPF Objective 11: Improved regulatory and institutional framework for key sectors Indicator 11.2: Increased use of Road Fund Share of Renumbered as 11.1 and Revised Indicator: Updated to improve realism of the target. annual Road Fund resources and spent on road Increased use of Road Fund Share of annual maintenance Road Fund resources collected and spent Target: 70 percent (2019) on road maintenance Target: 60 percent (2021) Indicator 11.3: Improved transparency in mining sector Renumbered as 11.2: Improved Geo-data system is operational but not yet online management. Public online access to historic and newly transparency in mining sector acquired geo-data information management. Public online access to Target: Yes (2018) historic and newly acquired geo-data information Target: Yes (2021) Indicator 11.4: Improved urban management, planning Renumbered as 11.3 and Revised Indicator: End Target is revised to reflect the delayed effectiveness and support to decentralization. Local Governments Improved urban management, planning of the Inclusive and Resilient Cities Project that implement asset management plans as specified in and support to decentralization. Local the city development contracts Governments that implement asset Target: 7 (2021) management plans as specified in the city development contracts Target: 4 (2021) 52 Indicator 11.5: Strengthened capacity in REDD+ issues Renumbered and Revised Indicator: Updated to reflect delays in the activities GOC contribution to joint Congo Basin submission to Strengthened capacity in REDD+ issues GOC The planning tool and strategy were adopted in 2018 but UNFCCC contribution to joint Congo Basin contribution to UNFCCC is still pending. The REDD+ Baseline: 0 (2014) submission to UNFCCC additional funding will address it by December 2019. Target: Submitted (2017) Baseline: 0 (2014) Target: Submitted (2020) Milestone 11.5: Number of local development and Dropped Not supported by the Enhancing Institutional Capacities spatial plans in place by end of FY20 on REDD + project. New Indicator 11.6: Number of SOEs Added to reflect program supported by the DPO publishing their audited annual financial reports within the prescribed deadlines Baseline: 0 (2016) Target: The 10 largest public enterprises and the 10 largest public institutions (2021) CPF Objective 12: Increased citizen engagement at local level (new) New Indicator 12.3: ·All Project Added to reflect a need to improve the GRMs portfolio- Implementation Units have revised their wide GRMs, reinforced their capacities, and implement them in the field. Baseline: No Target: Yes New Indicator 12.4: Village Development To reflect proper inclusion of refugees in the communes Committee of refugee host villages with at least one refugee represented in the committee/bureau Baseline: 0 (2018) Target: 40 (2021) Milestone 12.2: Modification of the simplified budget Dropped Duplication and not relevant template used for citizen consultation 53 Annex 3: Summary of Progress toward CPF Objectives Original CPF Indicators Progress/Outcome WBG Program CPF FOCUS AREA ONE: ADDRESSING MULTIPLE POVERTY TRAPS IN RURAL AREAS (WITH FOCUS ON NORTHERN REGIONS) CPF Objective 1: Increased productivity and access to markets in the agriculture and livestock sectors Indicator 1.1: (Source: Agriculture Investment & Ongoing: Market Development Project - AIMDP) Financing ·Increased yields (maize, sorghum, cassava) in target • Agriculture Investment and Market - areas Development Project (AIMDP, P143417) Baseline: Cassava 8t/ha (2015); Maize 1.5t/ha; Cassava 21.75 t/ha; Maize 3.8 t/ha; Sorghum 1.5 Sorghum 1t/ha t/ha FY15 Target: Cassava 24t/ha (2021); Maize 4t/ha (2021); On track • Livestock Development Project (P154908) Sorghum 3t/ha (2021) FY17 o/w in northern regions IFC Baseline: Maize 1.5t/ha; Sorghum 1t/ha Dropped as it is not measured under PIDMA • SG Cameroon Agriculture Risk Sharing Target: Maize 4t/ha (2021); Sorghum 2t/ha (2021) Facility (34916) FY15 Milestone 1.1: Cooperatives’ Sub-Projects • BICEC SFC Agri (34915) implemented 57 • Cargill Telcar (601329 Target: 100 (2019) Delayed but largely on track • Nosa Sarl (28659) FY10 Indicator 1.2: (Source LDP) ·Increased productivity of targeted livestock species No results data yet (project still at an early stage, 1 Knowledge by farmers and pastoralists beneficiaries in target year after effectiveness) • Rural Community-Based Land Tenure Models areas Delayed but largely on track (completed) Ruminants (mortality rate): Baseline: 20 percent (2016) Pipeline: Target: 12 percent (2019) Financing • Climate Smart Agriculture/Livestock Milestone 1.2.1: Livestock business plans Development Project (FY19) – Renamed implemented No results data yet (project still at an early stage, 1 • Regional Lake Chad Recovery and Development Target: 50 year after effectiveness) Project (P161706) FY19 Milestone 1.2.2: New technologies adopted by Delayed but largely on track farmers 54 Target: 15percent • Building Climate Resilience in the Niger Basin Project (Regional, FY20) - Renamed Indicator 1.3: (Source AIMDP and LDP) ·Farmers and • AF to the AIMDP and to the Livestock livestock owners reached with agriculture assets or Development Projects services • Easter and Central African Agriculture Transformation Project (P162416, regional) - Source AIMDP: Dropped Baseline (2015): 0 Target: 120,000 (2020) o/w women: 70percent 139,945 Knowledge Achieved • Climate Smart Agriculture and Livestock Source LDP: Production in Northern Regions (FY18) Baseline: 0 • Agriculture Index Insurance Feasibility Study Target: 140,000 (2022 o/w female: 20,000 o/w (FY19) youth: 20,000 No results data yet (project still at an early stage, 1 • Assessment of SOEs with a focus on the year after effectiveness) Agricultural sector (FY19) Indicator 1.4: (Source AIMDP) Delayed but largely on track • Land Administration and Land Use Planning ·Price premium of produce sold by beneficiary (FY20) farmers in targeted value chains (increase in percentage relative to the 2015 price baseline) Target: Sorghum +20 percent (2021); Maize +15 Sorghum +20% percent (2021) Maize +13% On track Indicator 1.5 (Source AIMDP/LDP) ·Incremental sales in targeted value chains (average of all value chains) Baseline (2016): value of sales Target by 2021: +20 percent in value of sales No results data yet (project still at an early stage, 1 Source: Livestock Development Project year after effectiveness) On track 55 CPF Objective 2: Improved maternal and child health, and nutrition Indicator 2.1: On-Going: · Maternal mortality during birth in the Far North, No results data available. Demographic and Health Financing North, Adamawa, and East Regions (per 100,000 Survey results (DHS) expected for beginning of CY19 • Health Sector Support Project (P104525) FY08, births is delayed AF FY14 (P146795) Baseline: 782 (2011) • Health System Performance Reinforcement Target: 590 (2021) Project (P156679) FY16 Milestone 2.1: Assisted births in the Northern and 49.30 percent Pipeline: East regions: 55 percent in 2021 – up from 34.5 On track Knowledge percent in 2014. • Health financing notes • Public Expenditure Review (FY18) Indicator 2.2: (Source MICS or DHS for target year) Enhanced Impact Evaluation for Health Sector PBF ·Under-5 deaths (per 1,000 lives) in the Far North, (FY19) North, Adamawa, and East Regions 94 Baseline: 103 (2014) On track Target: 85 (2021) o/w in Northern regions [Dropped in the revised results framework] No data available Baseline: 173 (2014) Target: 115 (2021) Milestone 2.2.1: ·Vaccinations in the northern regions (under-2 No results data available. Waiting for DHS result children fully vaccinated): 80 percent in 2021 – up from 65.7 percent in 2014 Milestone 2.2.2: Health Service Delivery Indicators (SDI) survey implemented by 2018 [Dropped in the Not on track revised results framework] Indicator 2.3: (Source MICS or DHS for target year) No results data ·Rate of chronic malnutrition among children under 5 in the Far North, North, Adamawa, and East Regions 56 Baseline: 32 percent (2014) Target: 25 percent (2019) Milestone 2.3: ·Children under 24 months being weighed for growth monitoring in the 3 northern regions and East (Number): 989,834 by end of 2019 368,889 Delayed but largely on track CPF Objective 3: Enhanced quality of, and more equitable access to, education Indicator 3.1: (Source Administrative data) ·Primary On-Going: completion rate, overall and by ZEP and gender Financing Baseline: • Equity and Quality for Improved Learning Overall: 74percent (2014) (P133338) FY14 Education Priority Zones (ZEPs (*), including northern • Africa higher Education Centers of Excellence regions): 64percent (2014) (P126974), Regional, FY14 Girls: 70percent (2014) Target: 72.1percent (2018) Knowledge Overall: 77percent (2021) 67.6percent (2018) • Textbooks policy note (completed) Education Priority Zones (ZEPs (*), including northern 64.6percent (2018) • Feasibility Study for PBF in Basic Education regions): 70percent (2021) Delayed but largely on track (trust-funded, FY18) Girls: 75percent (2021) Milestone 3.1.1: Regular administration of large- 1 large scale assessments undertaken in 2017 and 1 Pipeline: scale student assessments in selected grades by end planned for 2019 Financing of 2018 On track • Pre-Pilot Results-based Education Project (trust- funded) Milestone 3.1.2: Decision to implement RBF in Pilot completed. Scale up planned for 2019-2020 • Education Reform Support Project (FY19) selected schools/districts in the northern regions by school year end of 2019 On track Indicator 3.2: (Source Administrative Data) ·Pupil textbook ratio Grade 1-5 Baseline: 1:12 (2014) 1:7 (2018) Target: 1:2 (2021) On track 57 Milestone 3.2: New textbook policy approved by end Principles approved. Full policy to be completed in of 2017 2019. Delayed but largely on track Indicator 3.3: Pupil teacher ratio (excluding “parent teachers”) at grades 1 to 5 in the northern regions (North, North-West, Far North and Adamawa) - 124:1 (2018) Source Administrative Not on track Baseline: 120 (2013/2014) Indicator revised in the revised results framework Target: 70 (2021) Milestone 3.3: Education SDI survey implemented by Survey delayed partly due to situation in NWSW, end of 2018 planned for 2021 Delayed but largely on track CPF Objective 4: Expanded social safety nets Indicator 4.1: (Safety net project administrative On-Going: data) Financing ·Direct public works projects beneficiaries (number) • Social Safety Nets Project (P128534) FY13 Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 30,000 (2018); o/w 45percent female 30,000 (2018); o/w 45percent female Knowledge Updated Target from Additional Financing: 53,000 Achieved • Building Productive Safety Nets (P149564) nationals and 8,500 refugees (12/2022) Pipeline: Milestone 4.1: Direct public works beneficiaries Achieved Financing (number): 8,000 in 2016 13,000 in 2017 9,000 in • AF to the Social Safety Nets Project 2018 • Regional Lake Chad Recovery and Development Project (P161706) FY19 Indicator 4.2: (Safety net project administrative data) Knowledge ·Number of households benefitting from cash Social Protection PER (regional study) transfer program in northern regions (North, Far North) 54,000 (2018); o/w 52percent female including Baseline: 4,000 (2015) emergency cash transfers Target: 26,000 (2018); o/w 20 percent female- Achieved headed households 58 Milestone 4.2.1: Development and implementation of an effective targeting mechanism for cash transfer programs by end of 2017 An effective targeting mechanism for cash transfer programs has been developed and implemented. Milestone 4.2.2: Agreement with Government on Achieved scaling up by end of 2018 There is an agreement with the Government on scaling up cash transfer program by end of 2019. Achieved CPF Objective 5: Improved access to local infrastructure Indicator 5.1: (Source Inclusive and Resilient Cities No results data, to be dropped due to late On-Going: Project). Additional people provided with access to effectiveness of Inclusive and Resilient Cities Financing drainage Development Project. • Community Development Program Support Baseline: 0 (2016); Dropped Project Phase III (P144637) FY16 Target: 500,000 (2021) Not on track • Agriculture Investment and Market Development Project (P143417) FY15 Milestone 5.1: Procurement for contracts for 7 km of • Sanitation Project (P117102) FY11 drains and 30 km of urban roads (including storm • Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 water drainage) underway by end of 2019. Contracts No result Data • CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project implemented for 31 km of drains by 2019. [Dropped (P079736) FY07 in the revised results framework] • Transport Sector Development Project (P150999) FY17 Indicator 5.2: (Source Sanitation Project) ·People provided with access to improved sanitation • Livestock Development Project (P154908) FY17 facilities a) In target rural areas: Pipeline: Baseline: 0 (2011); 115,153 Financing Target: 25,000 (2017) Achieved • Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 • Access to Electricity in Northern Regions Project b) In target urban areas: 1,411 (FY19) Baseline: 0 (2011); Off track – Dropped in the revised results framework • Competitive Cities Project (FY20) Target: 85,000 (2017) Component cancelled Knowledge Urban Sector Review and Poverty Assessment (FY18) Indicator 5.3: Roads rehabilitated 59 a) Km of roads rehabilitated in rural areas (Source: Agriculture Investment & Market Development Project, Community Development Program - Phase III) Baseline: 0 (2014) 561.21 km Target: 1,270 (2021) On track b) Additional people provided with access to all- Original target not achievable by the end of CPF due season roads (Source Inclusive and Resilient Cities to late effectiveness of Inclusive and Resilient Cities Development Project Development Project. Baseline: 0 (2017) Not on track Target: 660,000 (2021) Target reduced in the revised results framework c) Additional km of national roads rehabilitated) Original target mainly based on completion of [Target reduced in the revised results framework] Maroua-Mora-Kousseri that is at an early stage and Baseline: 0 (2016) Babadjou-Bamenda roads on pause due to insecurity Target: 330 km (2021) in the North West region. Not on track Milestone 5.3: contracts implemented for 16 km of Not achieved due to late effectiveness of Inclusive urban roads by 2019. and Resilient Cities Development Project. Not on track Description of milestone changed in the revised results framework Indicator 5.4: Access to electricity Relevant project approved only in December 2018 Source: Rural Electricity Access Project for and not yet effective Underserved Regions Not on track Baseline: 2016: 69 percent o/w northern regions: 47 Dropped in the revised results framework percent Target: 88 percent o/w northern regions75 percent Not on track (2021) Dropped in the revised results framework 60 Milestone 5.4: 122 localities electrified by 2020 strengthening of the three national transmission networks completed by 2019 61 Original CPF Indicators Progress/Outcome WBG Program CPF FOCUS AREA TWO: FOSTERING INFRASTRUCTURE AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT CPF Objective 6: Increased national availability of electricity Indicator 6.1: Ongoing: ·Additional MWs of electricity generated: Lom Pangar dam commissioned in June 2017, this Financing Source: Lom Pangar Hydropower Project; Nachtigal translates into 120 MW of additional production • Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (P114077) FY12 Hydropower Project; Hydropower Development on downstream. • Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177) FY12 the Sanaga River Project • Energy Sector Development Project SIL Baseline: 0 MW (2015) 120 MW (P104456) FY08 Target: 820 MW (2021) On track • IBRD: Electricity Transmission and Reform Project (P152755) FY17 Of which renewable Same as above (All additional electricity generated is IFC: Baseline: 0 MW (2015) renewable) • Kribi Power Development Company SA (25978) Target: 820 MW (2021) Dropped in the revised results framework FY10 • Dibamba power development company (28529) Under PPP FY10 Baseline: 0 MW (2015) • AES Sonel (11579) FY06 Target: 420 MW (2021) . MIGA: Milestone 6.1.1: Completion of Lom Pangar Achieved • Kribi Gas Power Project Hydropower Dam by March 2017 Knowledge • Within the ESDP project Milestone 6.1.2: Completion of Lom Pangar Power Delayed, but largely on track • Policy note on reforms in the electricity sector Station (30 MW) by end of 2018. (FY17) Pipeline: Financing • IBRD Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734, Indicator 6.2: FY17) Total annual power outages per customer (Source • Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River ENEO/ARSEL) Project (P157733, FY17) • Access to Electricity in Northern Regions Project (FY19) Dropped in the revised results framework 62 ·Duration as measured by System Average IFC Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) due to the • IFC (CAPEX ENEO) Transmission Network • Nachtigal Hydropower Project (Equity and loan, Baseline: 49 hours (2015) FY17) Target: 10 hours (2021) MIGA: ·Duration as measured by System Average 85.54 hours (2018) Nachtigal Hydropower Project (Equity cover, FY17) Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI) – TOTAL Value On track Chain Baseline: 160 hours (2015) Target: 35 hours (2021) Electricity transmission investment program is Milestone 6.2.1: Short term electricity transmission ongoing and on track to be completed by end of investment program completed by end of 2021 2021 for the component funded by IBRD. On track Financial closing completed in December 2018 Milestone 6.2.2: Financial closing completed for Achieved Nachtigal by end of 2017 Commissioning expected in 2023 beyond CPF period Milestone 6.2.3: Nachtigal Hydropower Project Dropped in the revised results framework commissioned by end of 2021 CPF Objective 7: Improved transport and ICT services Indicator 7.1: (Source Multimodal Transport Project) Ongoing: ·Road transport prices per container between Financing Douala and N’Djamena and per ton-km in US$ • CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project Baseline: 6,000 (2014) No result data (P079736) FY07 Target: 5600 (2021) • Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 • Transport Sector Development Project Milestone 7.1.1: 1,600 kms of roads in good Not on track (P150999) FY17 condition by end of 2019 Pipeline: Milestone 7.1.2: number of roadblocks/checks Financing reduced to 3 per 100 kms by end of 2019 • ICT Sector Reform Project (P161219. FY18) No Result data 63 Indicator 7.2: (Source CEMAC TTFP) Knowledge ·Rail freight volumes transported along the Douala- 1.4 (December 2018) • Analytical work financed under the ongoing Ngaoundere corridor by train per year (in million Not on track portfolio, e.g.: (i) integrated intermodal tons/year) Transport Sector Strategy; (ii) trucking industry Baseline: 1.90 (2014) survey ; and (iii) environmental and social Target: 2.30 (2021) strategic assessment for the transport sector. Increasing the Competitiveness of the Transport Milestone 7.2: 500 kms of railways Sector (FY18) rehabilitated/extended by end of 2019 No results data Off track Target updated in the revised results framework Indicator 7.3: (Source CEMAC TTFP) ·Transaction dwell time in Douala port in days No results data Baseline: 11 (2007) Off track Target: 6 (2019) Indicator 7.4: (Source ICT Reform Project) Access to broadband Internet Services (fixed and Relevant project not delivered mobile) Off Track Baseline: 13 percent of population (2016) Dropped in the revised results framework Target: 40 percent of population (2021) CPF Objective 8: Improved business environment and access to financial services Indicator 8.1: Ongoing: ·Reduction of the number of days to register an 13.5 days (13 days for men and 14 days for women) • Improved Investment Climate within OHADA enterprise for starting a business (Source Doing Delayed but largely on track (Regional IDA, P126663) FY12 Business Index) • (IFC) Banque Internationale du Cameroun pour Baseline: 15 days (2016) l’Epargne et le Crédit (34915) FY15 Target: 3 days (2022) • (IFC) Activa Finances ltd (31215) FY13 • (IFC) Société Civile Immobilière Sigs (27923) Milestone 8.1: One-stop-shop for business entry and FY12 e-registration for enterprises fully implemented One-stop-shop effective in Douala (from Doing • (IFC) EB ACCION Microfinance SA (27966) FY09 across Cameroon by end of 2020 Business report) • (IFC) Advans Cameroun (25392) FY07 On track • (IFC) Afriland First Bank Cameroon (600986) Indicator 8.2: Reduction of the number of payments Knowledge of taxes per year (Source: Doing Business Index) 41 days with 2019 Finance law almost no progress. • Doing Business Index TA with IFC 64 Baseline: 44 payments (2016) Off Track • Cameroon IC Project (594287) and Doing Target: 12 payments (2022) Dropped in the revised results framework Business Advisory Service TA Milestone 8.2: E-declaration and e-payment for Pipeline: paying taxes by 2020 No progress Financing Off Track • CEMAC Institutions Capacity Building Project II Indicator 8.3: Dropped in the revised results framework (P161368) ·Establishment of a Credit Bureau-Number of firms • Improved Investment Climate within OHADA cover by this credit Bureau (Source: Doing Business Credit Bureau Regulation developed. Credit bureau Project II Index) to be created by end of 2021 Knowledge Baseline: 0 (2016) On track • Secured Transactions Feasibility Study Target: 10,000 firms and 30,000 individuals (2021) Land Administration and Land Use Planning (FY20) Milestone 8.3: Platform for credit information by 2021. No data Milestone changed in the revised results framework Indicator 8.4: ·Direct compliance cost savings (US$) (from simplifying registration, licensing and inspection US$17,478,576 (2019) systems for SMEs) (Source: ASOP IFC) Achieved Baseline: 0 (2014) Target: US$8 million (2018) Milestone 8.4: Monitoring of women covered by Credit Bureau in place 2021 [Moved to indicator 8.3.2 in the revised results framework] No data Indicator 8.5: Number of SMEs that have received loans secured The regulation on the collateral registry has been with movable property (#) signed by MoF and the online system is now live. Baseline: 0 (2016) On Track Target: 1800 (2021) The description of indicator has been changed in the revised results framework 65 CPF Objective 9: Increased supply of skills demanded by the labor market Indicator 9.1: Ongoing: · Percent of TVET students (secondary and tertiary Financing: levels) enrolled in priority sectors/subject areas (*) • Africa Higher Education Centers of Excellence Project (P126974), Regional, FY14 (*) For instance: agriculture, secondary and construction sectors No progress attributable to WBG program Pipeline: Baseline: 60 percent (2015) Financing Target: 70 percent (2021) with at least 25 percent of • Skills Development Project (FY20) girls This has been currently under development in the Knowledge Milestone 9: Framework for PPPs in TVET MINEFOP with AFD financing. • Cameroon Skills Policy Note (P152086) established 2019 Dropped in the revised results framework 66 Original CPF Indicators Progress/Outcome WBG Program CPF FOCUS AREA THREE: IMPROVING GOVERNANCE CPF Objective 10: Improved efficiency of public expenditure and service delivery Indicator 10.1: Ongoing: Local plans Financing Share of decentralized Public Investment Budget • Community Development Program Support projects derived from Local Development Plans Project Phase III (P144637) FY16 (percentage) • Health System Performance Reinforcement Baseline: 65 percent (2016) Project (P156679) FY16 Target: 77 percent (by March 2020) 60.50 percent Source: Community Development Program Support On track Project Phase III Wrong Baseline updated in revised framework Pipeline: Financing Indicator 10.2: Local accounts • Public Finance Management for Service Delivery ·Percent of local councils producing annual accounts Reform Project (P151155) FY18 on SIM_BA software Education Reform Support Project, FY19 Baseline: 8 percent (2014) 52 percent Target: 50 percent (by March 2020) Achieved (Source: Community Development Program Support Knowledge Project Phase III) • Public Expenditure Review (FY18) • Civil Service Assessment (FY18) Milestone 10.2: SIM_BA system deployed in all Achieved communes by end of 2017. Indicator 10.3: Execution rates Share of public investment budgets executed 70 percent in 2017 (‘ordonnancé’) by year end (December 31st) On track Baseline: 50 percent (2015) Target: 80 percent (FY21) (Source: Budget Department, Ministry of Finance - National Committee Report 2018) Milestone 10.3: List of implementation-ready projects established, and performance contract piloted. 67 No result data Indicator 10.4: Improved performance in health RBF districts Average RBF district score for quality of care Source: MOH checklist report from PBF statistics Baseline: 30 percent (2014) 68 per cent Target: 50 percent (2021) On track Milestone 10.4.1: Percentage of facilities with 100percent tracer drugs available in targeted health facilities on the day of the visit: 40 percent by end of 10 per cent 2021 Not on track Milestone 10.4.2: Number of health districts covered by RBF: 100 by June 2018 148 Indicator 10.5 Improved performance in schools On track ·Number of schools funded through results-based contracts in target areas No result data Baseline: 0 (2015) Target: 400 (2020) Milestone 10.5.1: Number of schools with a functioning management committee led by a community member: 400 by 2020 [Dropped in the No result data revised results framework] Milestone 10.5.2: Share of RBF schools with required learning facilities and inputs (infrastructures, textbooks for each student, 1 desk for 2, toilets): 50 No result data percent by 2020 CPF Objective 11: Improved regulatory and institutional framework for key sectors Indicator 11.1: Ongoing: ·Energy National Electricity Transmission System Financing Operator fully operational • Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (P114077) FY12 68 Source: Lom Pangar Hydropower Project FY12; • Kribi Gas Power Project (P110177) FY12 Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River • Multimodal Transport Project (P143801) FY14 Project • CEMAC Transport and Transit Facilitation Project Baseline: Integrated Power Sector (2015) (P079736) FY07 Target: Power sector fully unbundled (By September Achieved • Agriculture Investment and Market 2017) Development Project (P143147) FY15 • Flood Emergency Project (P143940) FY13 Milestone 11.1.1: SONATREL’s organizational and Achieved • Ngoyla Mintom Project (P118018) FY12 ownership structure in place by end of 2017 • Electricity Transmission and Reform Project (P152755) FY17 Milestone 11.1.2: Detailed operationalization road Achieved • Transport Sector Development Project map/action plan completed and approved by end of (P150999) FY17 2017 IFC: Milestone 11.1.3: Power sector fully unbundled and Achieved • Kribi Power Development Company SA (25978) operational under new model by end of 2017 FY10 • Dibamba Power Development Company (28529) Indicator 11.2: FY10 Increased use of Road Fund No result data Share of annual Road Fund resources collected and Knowledge spent on road maintenance • Doing Business Index TA with IFC Source: Transport Sector Development Project" • Mining Sector TA Project (P122153) FY12 Baseline: 55 percent (2015) • Enhancing Institutional Capacities on REDD+ Target: 70 percent (2019) Issues for Sustainable Forest Management in the Congo Basin Project FY12 Milestone 11.2: Road Fund rules revised by end of Road Fund rules are revised 2019 Achieved Pipeline: Financing The geo-data system is operational but is expected • Nachtigal Hydropower Project (P157734 GU) Indicator 11.3: to go online when the access to data policy is FY18 Improved transparency in mining sector finalized. • Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 management Public online access to historic and Delayed but largely on track • Mining Sector Technical Assistance Project, AF newly acquired geo-data information (P160917) FY17 Source: Mining Sector TA Project • Competitive Cities Project (FY20) 69 Baseline: No (2012) Knowledge Target: Yes (2018) • Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River The geo-data system platform has been set up. Project (P157773) FY17 – TA component Milestone 11.3: Set-up of geo-data platform Achieved • Urban Sector Review and Poverty Assessment complete by end of 2017 (FY18) No result data – Project signing and effectiveness • Land Administration and Land Use Planning Indicator 11.4: considerably delayed (FY20) Improved urban management, planning and support to decentralization Local Governments that implement asset management plans as specified in the city development contracts Baseline: 0 (2017) Target: 7 (2021) Source: Inclusive Cities Project No result data Milestone 11.4: Number of city contracts with municipal management programs signed by end of 2019 Indicator 11.5: Cameroon’s REDD+ National Strategy was ·Strengthened capacity in REDD+ issues GOC completed and approved contribution to joint Congo Basin submission to Delayed but largely on track UNFCCC Baseline: 0 (2014) Target: Submitted No data Milestone 11.5: Number of local development and Dropped in the revised results framework spatial plans in place by end of FY20 CPF Objective 12: Increased citizen engagement at local level 70 Indicator 12.1: Ongoing: Local facilities Financing Local councils with at least one user survey over • Health Sector Support Project (P146795) FY08, previous 2 years (basic education, local councils’ AF FY14 services, water, health) • Community Development Program Support Baseline: 10 (2015) Project Phase III (P144637) FY16 Target: 160 (by Feb 2020) 153 • Health System Performance Reinforcement Source: Community Development Program Support On track Project (P156679) FY16 Project Phase III " • Livestock Development Project (P154908) FY17 • Safety Net Project (P128534) FY13 Milestone 12.1: Simplified citizen scorecard at local Achieved council level piloted (by September 2017). Knowledge Indicator 12.2: Multisector user feedback No result data • Impact evaluation for health sector PBF Share of beneficiaries that feel project investments reflected their needs Pipeline: Baseline: 0 (2015) Financing Target: 70 percent average (2021) • Inclusive Cities Project (P156210) FY18 Source: Community Development Program Support • AF to Community Development Program Phase III, Inclusive Cities Project, AIMDP, Livestock Support Project Phase III Development Project, Safety Nets Project, Health Education Reform Support Project FY19 System Performance Project, Education Reform support Project Milestone 12.2: generalization of consultative Achieved groups at village level Milestone 12.2: Modification of the simplified No data budget template used for citizen consultation 71 Annex 4: Key Macro Economic Indicators Cameroon General Government Key Macroeconomic Indicators, 2014-2020 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018e 2019p 2020p Real economy (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Nominal GDP (CFAF, billions) 17,276 18,285 19,345 20,328 21,382 22,538 23,864 Real GDP 5.9 5.7 4.6 3.5 4 4.2 4.5 Per capita GDP (in US$, constant prices) 1,428 1,470 1497.6 1510.4 1531.3 1555.4 1583.6 Per capita GDP 3.1 2.9 1.9 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.8 Imports 15 −5.0 -5.9 -4.8 7 -0.1 2.5 Exports 20.9 14.6 -4 -1.3 -0.9 4 4.9 GDP deflator 2.1 0.2 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 Consumer Price Index (eop) 2.6 1.5 0.3 0.8 2 2.3 2.2 Oil price (US$ per bbl) 96.2 50.8 42.8 52.8 68.3 59.2 59.0 Fiscal accounts (As a percentage of GDP) Total expenditure 20.8 20.9 20.9 19.8 18.7 18.2 17.8 Total revenue 1 16.6 16.5 14.8 15 16.1 16.2 16.3 General Government balance1 −4.2 −4.4 -6.1 5.1 -2.5 -2 -1.5 Public and Publicly guaranteed debt (eop)2,3,4 21.5 30.9 32.5 36.9 39 39.2 38.6 Selected monetary accounts (Annual percentage change, unless otherwise indicated) Credit to the economy 14.4 11.4 7.2 2.3 4.6 6.1 6.7 Broad money 10.8 9.2 5.5 5.9 9.8 6.1 6.7 External accounts (Percentage of GDP, unless otherwise indicated) Current account balance −4 −3.8 -3.2 -2.7 -3.7 -3.4 -3.3 Imports of goods and services −27.7 −25.2 −21.7 −20.6 −21.7 −19.4 −20.2 Exports of goods and services 24.6 21.6 19.2 18.7 19 18.1 17.6 Foreign direct investment (FDI) 2.6 1.9 1.1 2.3 1.8 1.8 2 Gross official reserves imputed to Cameroon 3.2 3.5 2.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 (US$, billions, eop) External debt 14.6 19.8 22.4 24.9 28.7 30.1 29.7 Terms of trade (percent change) −9.9 −11.4 0.2 -1.7 -0.2 -4.3 -2.9 Source: National authorities, IMF, World Bank. 1 Includes grants. 2 Includes the cumulative financing gap. 3 Includes the balance of payment at the treasury level and other debts of SONARA. 4 Projections are taken from the DSA, which excludes the stock of debt on which France provided debt relief under the "Contrat de désendettement et de développement" C2D. 72 Annex 5: Transformational WBG Engagement in the Energy Sector 1. The WBG has been a long-term, strategic partner of Cameroon’s energy sector, with a strong portfolio of projects and consistent support to the Government’s reform agenda. It has built a close working relationship with all sector stakeholders and has become a trusted partner regarding policy, institutional development, and sector investment. With the support of the WBG Cameroon has, over the past two decades, embarked on a series of sector reforms in the power sector to enhance its financial viability, improve reliability and affordability of services, increase access and attract much needed private sector investments. 2. In 1998, the World Bank advised the Government on the Electricity Sector Law of 1998 , which introduced the Agence de Régulation du Secteur de l’Electricité (ARSEL [Electricity Sector Regulatory Agency]), as the independent sector regulator, and created a rural electrification agency. In 2001, with IFC as transaction advisor, the vertically- integrated public power utility, Société Nationale d’Electricité (SONEL [National Electricity Society]), was privatized under a 20-year concession to the American Electricity Supply Corporation (AES) and was renamed AES-SONEL. In 2014, AES Corporation sold its equity stake to the private equity fund ACTIS Capital LLP (Actis), which became the strategic partner for the remaining period of the concession (2014-2021). The concessionaire was renamed ENEO CAMEROON S.A. (ENEO). In 2018, the Government has indicated its intent to extend the concession for another ten years and is seeking ways to improve the technical and commercial performance of the utility. 3. Cameroon has adopted ambitious development goals as laid out in the Growth and Employment Strategy Paper (GESP), which establishes the framework for the first implementation phase (2010–2020) of the “Vision 2035.” In line with the GESP, the 2014 IDA-financed Least Cost Power Sector Expansion Development Plan forecasts peak demand to quadruple by 2035, with a range from 3,900 MW to 5,500 MW depending on the growth scenario1 (median or high). Electricity consumption is expected to range from 24,400 GWh (median) to 33,400 GWh (high). The Cameroon IDA-financed Rural Electrification Master Plan intends to increase to 88 percent the population living in electrified localities by 2022 (from 74 percent in 2016) through a mix of grid extension (80 percent) and off-grid solutions (20 percent). In 2016, total installed electricity generation capacity was estimated at 1,286 MW (against only 800 MW in 1998) with hydro representing 59 percent of the total. Of the remaining capacity, about 216 MW relates to the Kribi Gas to Power Project commissioned in 2013, supported by guarantees from IDA and with funding from IFC. 4. To further its strategy and lay the foundation for private sector participation, the Government has initiated a second phase of reforms that include: (a) the transfer of transmission network management from ENEO to a state-owned entity, the National Electricity Transport Company (SONATREL); (b) changes to water storage activities, including the transfer of the water storage concession of the Sanaga Basin reservoirs to the Electricity Development Corporation (EDC);1 and, (c) the introduction of new penalty charges in the event that ENEO fails to meet agreed performance targets. Given the fiscal constraints for Cameroon to meet its capacity expansion objectives, the GoC has embarked into enabling the development of IPPs, both thermal and hydropower based, which the WBG is supporting. 5. The GoC transformation agenda of the energy sector is built on a sustained engagement by the WBG in Cameroon, to accompany the Government in its reform agenda. Over the past few years, the WBG has financed the following activities: (i) the Energy Sector Development Project (FY08) which helped update the sector framework and supported rural electrification; (ii) the Lom Pangar Hydropower Project (LPHP, FY12), which supports the construction of a regulating dam in the Sanaga basin. The dam was successfully commissioned in June 2017. The Project allows Cameroon to (a) improve the production capacity of the two existing hydropower plants downstream— Song Loulou and Edéa; (b) unlock the hydropower potential of the Sanaga River (estimated at up to 6,000 MW) by reducing seasonal variability flow and attract private investments on downstream concessions; and (c) over time, lower electricity production costs with inexpensive hydropower generation; (iii) the Electricity Transmission and Reform Project (FY17), which will help improve the capacity, efficiency, and reliability of the national transmission network. The project is financing investments in transmission, and is supporting the operationalization of SONATREL, which was concluded at the end of 2018; and (iv) the Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River Technical Assistance Project (FY17), which aims to support institutional capacity building and knowledge transfer to the GoC in 73 refining its tools and strategy to develop its hydropower resources (e.g., on hydrology risks, dam safety, cascade investment optimization, and competitively-bid concessions). Two other projects were respectively approved in July and December 2018: (v) the Nachtigal Hydropower Project and (vi) the Rural Electrification Access Project for Underserved Regions with the objective to give direct access to electricity to nearly one million new households in the poorest regions of Cameroon. Figure: 5.1: Evolution of the WBG Engagement in Cameroon’s Energy Sector 74 Annex 6: MIGA and IFC Portfolios in Cameroon IFC (as of March 31, 2019) 75 MIGA (as of June 13, 2019) A djusted N et M anagement Effective Expiry Investo r P ro ject B usiness H o st Investo r R isk Gro ss Expo sure Expo sure Secto r D ate D ate N ame N ame Secto r C o untry C o untry C o vers ($ USD ) ($ USD ) Energy Cameroon Holding EEI 06/12/2014 07/17/2022 AES Sonel Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands TR;WCD;BOC 180,000,000 120,000,001 B.V. Globeleq Energy Holdings Kribi Power Generation EEI 06/13/2014 05/18/2033 Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands BOC 65,198,958 65,198,958 (Cameroon) B.V. Company Globeleq Energy Holdings Dibamba Power EEI 06/13/2014 05/10/2031 Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands BOC 26,269,953 26,269,953 (Cameroon) B.V. Development Company EEI 12/21/2018 12/20/2033 EDF International S.A.S. Nachtigal Hydro Power Infrastructure Cameroon France BOC 147,314,925 59,285,746 EEI 12/21/2018 12/20/2033 Stoa SA Nachtigal Hydro Power Infrastructure Cameroon France BOC 38,403,477 38,403,477 Grand Total 457,187,312 309,158,133 A djus t e d N e t M a na ge m e nt E f f e c t iv e E xpiry Inv e s t o r P ro je c t B us ine s s H o st Inv e s t o r R is k G ro s s E xpo s ure E xpo s ure Secto r D ate D ate N ame N ame Secto r C o unt ry C o unt ry C o v e rs ( $ US D ) ( $ US D ) Energy Cameroon Holding EEI 06/12/2014 07/17/2022 AES Sonel Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands TR;WCD;BOC 180,000,000 120,000,001 B.V. Globeleq Energy Holdings Kribi Power Generation EEI 06/13/2014 05/18/2033 Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands BOC 65,198,958 65,198,958 (Cameroon) B.V. Company Globeleq Energy Holdings Dibamba Power EEI 06/13/2014 05/10/2031 Infrastructure Cameroon Netherlands BOC 26,269,953 26,269,953 (Cameroon) B.V. Development Company EEI 12/21/2018 12/20/2033 EDF International S.A.S. Nachtigal Hydro Power Infrastructure Cameroon France BOC 147,314,925 59,285,746 EEI 12/21/2018 12/20/2033 Stoa SA Nachtigal Hydro Power Infrastructure Cameroon France BOC 38,403,477 38,403,477 Grand Total 457,187,312 309,158,133 76 Annex 7: World Bank Active Portfolio as of May 21, 2019 Project Net Ratings – Comm. Disburseme Project Project Resp. Project Agreement Board Approval Amt. - nts - Cum. Project Name Country Develop Ratings - Closing Date Unit ID Type Date Total Disb. (US$ ment IP (US$ million) Objective million) (PDO) NATIONAL PROJECTS CM - Lom Pangar Hydropower Proj. GEE07 P114077 Cameroon IDA MS MS 27-Mar-2012 28-Jun-2019 132.00 120.49 (FY12) Cameroon Mining Sector Technical GEEXI P122153 Cameroon IDA S S 15-Dec-2011 1-Dec-2021 56.90 26.85 Assistance Project GSP07 P128534 Cameroon Social Safety Nets Cameroon IDA S S 21-Mar-2013 30-Dec-2022 110.00 45.34 CAMEROON--Equity and Quality for GED13 P133338 Cameroon RETF S MS 24-Feb-2014 28-Jun-2019 51.87 38.08 Improved Learning Project The Agriculture Investment and GFA07 P143417 Cameroon IDA MS MU 25-Sep-2014 30-Sep-2019 100.00 61.90 Market Development Project Cameroon - Multimodal Transport GTR08 P143801 Cameroon IDA MS MS 27-May-2014 30-Jun-2021 71.00 32.47 Project GWA08 P143940 Flood Emergency Project Cameroon IDA S MS 11-Jun-2013 31-May-2019 108.00 93.64 Community Development Program GSU01 P144637 Cameroon IDA S S 29-Sep-2015 30-Jun-2022 118.00 62.29 Support Project-Phase III Cameroon Transport Sector GTR08 P150999 Cameroon IBRD MS MU 27-Oct-2016 30-Jun-2022 192.00 47.48 Development Project CAMEROON - Strengthening Public GGOAC P151155 Sector Effectiveness and Statistical Cameroon IDA MS MS 20-Nov-2017 31-Dec-2023 31.00 0.00 Capacity Project Electricity Transmission and Reform GEE07 P152755 Cameroon IBRD MS MU 7-Dec-2016 31-Dec-2022 325.00 12.40 Project GFA07 P154908 Livestock Development Project Cameroon IDA MS MS 27-Oct-2016 31-Jan-2023 100.00 15.09 Cameroon: Inclusive and Resilient GSU19 P156210 Cameroon IDA MS MS 22-Aug-2017 31-Mar-2024 160.00 0.00 Cities Development Project 77 Health System Performance GHN13 P156679 Cameroon IDA S MU 3-May-2016 31-Dec-2022 136.00 27.67 Reinforcement Project Hydropower Development on the GEE07 P157733 Sanaga River Technical Assistance Cameroon IDA MS MS 11-May-2017 31-Jul-2023 26.30 0.00 Project CAMEROON Education Reform GED13 P160926 Cameroon IDA S S 1-May-2018 29-Dec-2023 130.00 0.00 Support Project CM- Rural Electricity Access Project GEE07 P163881 Cameroon IDA S S 13-Dec-2018 30-Jun-2025 150.00 0.00 for Underserved Regions REGIONAL PROJECTS CEMAC - Transport-Transit Central GTR08 P079736 IDA MS MU 26-Jun-2007 30-Jun-2020 409.00 93.07 Facilitation Africa Africa Higher Education Centers of Western GED13 P126974 IDA S S 15-Apr-2014 31-Mar-2020 8.00 2.23 Excellence Project Africa Improved Investment Climate within the Organization for the GFCAC P126663 Africa IDA S S 26-Jun-2012 30-Dec-2022 30.00 14.81 Harmonization of Business Laws in Africa (OHADA) Strengthening the Capacity of GFCAC P161368 Regional Financial Institutions in the Africa IDA S S 4-May-2018 4-Jul-2023 35.00 3.33 CEMAC Region 78 Annex 8: Delivering Increasing Climate Change Co-Benefits in Cameroon 1. Cameroon remains vulnerable to climate variability and change, which acts as a threat multiplier for achieving poverty reduction and shared prosperity, particularly in its northern regions. As noted in the 2016 SCD15, climate change will exacerbate trends including hydrologic and rainfall variability, heavy rainfalls alternating with a six to seven month-dry season, and significant sporadic floods and droughts. An overall decrease in water availability, both in terms of surface and groundwater, combined with increased demand for water, for both domestic and agricultural purposes, would further exacerbate the ongoing water crisis in many rural areas of the north. In addition, coastal areas are vulnerable to flooding and sea level rise, particularly the area around Douala.16 2. Climate mitigation and adaptation co-benefits have been delivered through operations in various sectors, thereby contributing to national climate priorities. For example, the energy sector Hydropower Development on the Sanaga River Technical Assistance Project and Nachtigal Hydropower Project counted 100 percent climate co- benefits. The rural development Livestock Development Project (P154908) counted 72 percent climate co-benefits and was well aligned with the World Bank’s Africa Climate Business Plan, particularly its first cluster on “strengthening resilience.” The project captured climate co-benefits in both mitigation and adaptation and included design elements such as climate smart technologies and practices including sustainable land/landscape management, waste management systems to minimize greenhouse gas emissions, pollution and dissemination of pathogens, and renewable energy supply systems (bio and solar). 3. Cameroon has outlined national priorities for building resilience to climate risks and leveraging climate mitigation opportunities. Cameroon’s NDC 17 submitted under the Paris Agreement in 2015 stipulates that with international support, the country commits to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 32 percent by 2035. Cameroon’s National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change (PNACC)18 sets out the vision on climate change adaptation by 2035: "climate change in Cameroon's five agro-ecological zones is fully integrated with the country's sustainable development, thus reducing its vulnerability, and even turning the climate change problem into a solution / opportunity for development”. Going forward, the Cameroon’s country program and pipeline projects will continue integrating climate consideration and delivering climate co-benefits, thereby responding to and aligning with national priorities outlined in Cameroon’s NDC and PNACC. 15 World Bank Group, 2016. Republic of Cameroon (RoC): Priorities for Ending Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity 16 Cameroon Country Page, Climate Change Knowledge Portal. 17 Cameroon Nationally Determined Contribution, 2015. 18 Cameroon National Adaptation Plan for Climate Change, 2015