71487 Building Urban Resilience M a n a g i n g T h e R i s k s o f D i s a s T e R s i n e a s T a s i a a n D T h e Pa C i f i C Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho ©2012 The World Bank The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433, USA May 2012 Disclaimer: This report is a product of the staff of the World Bank with external contributions. The �ndings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessar- ily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent, or those of the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID). The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgments on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or accep- tance of such boundaries. Acknowledgements About Building Urban Resilience in East Asia T his report was prepared by a team led by Abhas Jha and com- prised of Abigail Baca, Andre A. Bald, Arlan Rahman, Dzung B Huy Nguyen, Fook Chuan Eng, Iwan Gunawan, Meskerem uilding Urban Resilience in East Asia is a World Bank program Brhane and Zuzana Svetlosakova. which aims to increase the resilience of cities to disasters and climate change impacts by using a risk-based approach in pub- Technical material used in this report was prepared by Abigail Baca, lic investment decision-making process. The objective of the initia- Zuzana Svetlosakova and the consulting team of Royal Haskoning, tive is to demonstrate a scalable methodology and practical tools HKV consultants, Witteveen + Bos, URDI including Eveline Buter, for risk assessment which can be used for city-level investment deci- Gita Chandrika Napitupulu, Joost Lansen, Julian Syah, Jurjen Wage- sions. maker, Marco Hartman, Michael Van de Watering, Sawarendro, and Trinh Hoang Ngan. Working closely with the stakeholders involved in land-use planning and infrastructure development, Phase I of this program identi�es The team would like to thank John Roome and Vijay Jagannathan the key challenges facing urban decision-makers in terms of risk for their support and guidance, and Trevor Dhu and Uwe Deichman from natural disasters and climate change, and offers a set of open for their constructive comments. source risk assessment tools that can be used by city-level institu- The team wishes to acknowledge the generous support from the tions, private investors, communities and planners of infrastructure Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) pro- services. Phase II of the program focuses on the exploration different vided through the World Bank East Asia and Paci�c Infrastructure investment options, management plans and capacity building. for Growth Trust Fund (EAAIG) which enabled the technical work to Building Urban Resilience in East Asia is part of a broader effort of take place. the World Bank to incentivize governments to effectively use geo- Note to the Reader: Chapter 1 describes the standard risk assess- spatial data. The Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI) aims ment methodology and introduces the pilot cities work. Chapter 2 to reduce the impact of disasters by empowering decision-makers and Chapter 3 apply the methodology into practice for the case with better information and the tools to support their responsibili- studies in Can Tho, Vietnam, and Jakarta, Indonesia. Chapter 4 pres- ties. “InaSAFE,� (Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies) is ents innovative tools available to support resilient decision-making. one of those tools, developed through a partnership with the Indo- Chapter 5 draws out the key �ndings for the pilot studies, and offers nesian National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the Austra- general recommendations for concerned decision-makers who seek lia Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), and the Global to integrate evidence and risk-based approaches into their invest- Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Labs team. ment planning and urban governance processes. Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho / iii Can Tho community members, Development Workshop France (2011) iv / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Foreword In the context of the demographic, urbanization and climactic trends, policy-makers in East Asia are facing many dif�cult decisions over medium and long term investments in public infrastructure and urban management. There are concrete ways to improve decision-making to reap the bene�ts of integrating risk-based approaches into urban governance and planning processes. This can help national and city level stakeholders make complex decisions in a smarter, forward-looking and more sustainable manner resulting in increased resilience. Cities that are better able to define and communicate their risks are better at prepar- ing for and managing the impacts of natural disasters in a changing climate. The Building Urban Resilience initiative encourages cities to adopt and invest in risk-based approaches and make better use of the technologies and tools available to manage disaster risks. This report is an example of the commitment of the World Bank and AusAID to support cities in the East Asia region to be better prepared for the development challenges of both today and tomorrow. John Roome, Director Sustainable Development East Asia and the Paci�c The World Bank / v Table of Contents Acknowledgements ............................................................. iii ChapTER 4 About Building Urban Resilience in East Asia ........................ iii Tools for Resilient Decision-making................................. 46 Foreword ............................................................................. vi Executive Summary .......................................................... ix ChapTER 5 Findings and Recommendations ...................................... 48 ChapTER 1 Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions 1 annex 1: International Experience .................................. 51 Risk Assessment ................................................................... 1 annex 2: Data Collection Guidelines ............................... 54 Cost Bene�t Analysis (CBA) .................................................. 10 References ......................................................................... 56 ChapTER 2 List of Figures Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam .......................................... 15 Figure 1 Key elements of risk calculation ........................ 1 Urban Planning and Infrastructure Investment Needs ........... 19 Figure 2 Dynamic decision-making process ..................... 2 Risk Information for Can Tho’s Main Hazards ....................... 20 Figure 3 Detailed scheme of flood risk management ..... 3 Figure 4 Historical event scenario for 2007 flood Risk assessment design review for Bun Xang Lake ................ 23 in Jakarta with affected industrial site ............... 5 Conclusions ......................................................................... 26 Figure 5 Inundation potential from 1 meter sea level rise scenario for Can Tho ................................. 6 ChapTER 3 Figure 6 Subsidence rates average for 2000 - 2010 Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia ......................................... 29 in Jakarta ......................................................... 7 Urban Planning and Infrastructure Investment Needs ........... 36 Figure 7 Land use exposure map for Ho Chi Minh City ... 7 Design Risk Assessment for Micro Drainage ......................... 38 Figure 8 Example flood damage function ....................... 8 Implementation of the risk assessment and cost-bene�t Figure 9 Risk assessment calculation............................... 8 analysis with stakeholders .................................................... 42 Figure 10 Scenario economic damage map for Conclusions ......................................................................... 43 Ho Chi Minh City.............................................. 9 Figure 11 Recent flooding in Can Tho ............................. 13 vi / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Figure 12 MoNRE 0.75 meter sea level rise inundation Table 8 Key stakeholders in National Indonesian map for Mekong region ................................... 15 Government ..................................................... 32 Figure 13 Community interview sessions in Can Tho ....... 16 Table 9 Summary of example micro drainage Figure 14 Can Tho stakeholders ....................................... 17 investments in Jakarta ...................................... 36 Figure 15 Proposed planning diagram for Lake Table 10 Expected consequences of investment Bun Xang and surrounding area ....................... 22 in micro drainage ............................................ 38 Figure 16 Function of a storage basin in urban drainage Table 11 List of required data for Jakarta micro drainage management .................................................... 23 risk assessment ................................................. 39 Figure 17 Example sluice valves for outflow of water ....... 26 Table 12 InaSAFE output summary for Jakarta flood scenarios ......................................................... 47 Figure 18 Tidal flooding in northern Jakarta, November 2007 ............................................................... 29 Figure 19 Annual budget planning ................................... 31 Box 1 Flood Risk Information and Public Investment Decision-making in the Netherlands.................. 12 Figure 20 Open data for resilience cycle ........................... 43 Box 2 Vietnam Urban Upgrading Project (VUUP) ......... 26 Figure 21 InaSAFE output maps of Jakarta flood scenarios 44 Box 3 Jakarta Coastal Sea Defense ............................. 35 Figure 22 InaSAFE output maps of population impacts for Jakarta flood scenarios ................................ 45 Box 4 Jakarta Urgent Flood Mitigation (JUFMP) and the Flood Management Information System 42 Box 5 Improving disaster risk management through List of Tables and Boxes information technology in the Paci�c Region .... 47 Table 1 Scale of data and application – examples for Vietnam ...................................................... 4 Table 2 Types of disaster impacts .................................. 9 Table 3 Socioeconomic cost bene�t analysis summary .. 10 Table 4 Vietnam climate change impacts ..................... 15 Table 5 Bun Xang Lake design requirements ................. 23 Table 6 Urban risk assessment hazard summary for Jakarta, Mayor’s Task Force .......................... 27 Table 7 Key stakeholders in provincial government of DKI Jakarta ................................................... 30 Table of Contents / vii Can Tho, Vietnam Flooding, Development Workshop France (2011) viii / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Executive Summary T his report explores practical approaches to building and loss of human life caused by disasters, carrying important les- urban resilience. It focuses on tools and methodologies that sons to urban disaster risk management practitioners. can facilitate the use of risk information in public infrastructure investment and urban management decisions as integral elements To make necessary budgetary and investment decisions, deci- of reducing disaster and climate risks. sion-makers seek consistent and quantitative tools to evaluate pub- lic investments. Integrating risk-based methods into cost-bene�t Three major trends drive the “urbanization of disasters�1: cli- approaches enables the consideration of the impacts of climate mate change, rapid and unplanned urbanization and popula- change and disasters by means of quantifying the economic conse- tion growth. The expected annual growth rate of East Asia’s urban quences of these events. population from the mid-1990s to 2025 is projected to be four times that of the highest income countries. For East Asia as a whole, the There is a critical demand for a flexible and dynamic approach urban population is expected to double between 1994 and 2025.2 In to building resilience according to which the management and context of the largest wave of urbanization in history, more people use of technical information, including geospatial climate and risk and more assets are now in harm’s way due to the combination of data and infrastructure assets, is integrated within the government’s rapid and unplanned growth, which takes place on marginal lands, decision-making process. The need for a dynamic approach to build- in hazardous areas and with poorly constructed settlements. ing urban resilience is twofold. Rapidly growing peri-urban, small and middle-sized cities are First, the nature of disaster and climate risk is highly uncertain. particularly at risk. Often lacking �nancial resources, infrastruc- The technical assessments which can estimate impact of these events ture, services and the capacity to manage the increase in urban pop- and scenarios are constantly improving as new data and technology ulation, their exposure is increasing and will translate into heavy loss become available. This implies that also the downstream understand- of life and property during climate and disaster events unless proac- ing of risk and its application to government decisions must be flexible tive measures are mainstreamed into urban governance and plan- to adapt to future risks and a greater level of uncertainty. ning processes. Second, the urban environment in terms of physical and nonphysi- East asia and the pacific, along with South asia, are particu- cal characteristics changes by design. City decision-makers must larly vulnerable to natural disasters. Globally, Asia-Paci�c is the consider a range of time horizons from annual budgeting priorities worst affected in terms of economic impact and size of population extending to 20-30 years for spatial plans and approximately 50 involved. In the past year, the earthquake induced tsunami in Japan, years for infrastructure design. The conventional urban planning widespread flooding in Thailand, and the tropical storm in the Phil- methods may supports these longer term view of a city’s needs, ippines are tragic reminders of the devastation, economic damages however, the output of the planning process itself is typically static 1 IFRC (2010) World Disaster Report. and can rapidly become outdated and limited in its utility to guide 2 Abhas Jha, Henrike Brecht (2011). the city to a more resilient future. Executive Summary / ix The approach adopted by this study involves the integration stakeholders, academic institutions, individual citizens, and the pri- of a risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis within a dynamic vate sector, to incorporate risk reductions elements in their decision- decision-making process for the purpose of informing resilient making. This increases the collective resilience of the city as well as urban investments. Based on this approach and its application in facilitates the city authorities in their dual role in both creating and Can Tho and Jakarta, this study offers the following key principles and then disseminating risk information. action steps: action Steps Key principles 1. Develop technical tools to standardize risk assessment and 1. Importance of Geospatial Risk Information: Risk information, cost-benefit analysis. when integrated within a socioeconomic cost-bene�t decision- 2. Develop institutional tools for integrating risk assessment making framework, can promote resilience by quantifying the and cost-benefit analysis results in decision-making. relative impact of urban investments. The provision of credible information, such as the geographic distribution of hazards and 3. Develop political awareness to adopted risk-based approach vulnerability of structures, can be seen as a public good and a criti- to decision-making. cal element of urban hazard management policy.3 4. Implement capacity building with key stakeholders. 2. Facing these challenges, cities need sophisticated yet user- friendly instruments to be able to assess the risks, and, based on Regionally and globally relevant recommendations can foster these analyses, make well-informed decisions on future investments the development of both the political environment and the for urban infrastructure. A core requirement for such tools is to technology for sharing information that enables better under- enable robust and sustainable management of the spatial informa- standing and management of risk. This report aims to contribute to tion needed for risk-based decision-making process. this debate by highlighting the lessons learnt in Can Tho and Jakarta. 3. Sharing information for Resilience: It should be noted that This study demonstrates that risk-based methodology focused on the �rst priority of data sharing is to promote the open and ef�- building urban resilience can be implemented within a range of con- cient exchange of information between government stakeholders. texts, with risk assessments as crucial tools for decision-makers. In Smarter management of information within the city’s institutions order to reap the bene�ts of this and other analytical tools, national, can greatly enhance decision-making capacity and therefore lead local and city level governments need to invest in geospatial risk to greater resilience. Full openness of data also has many bene�ts; information, as well as making risk information available in sus- however, this can be seen as an ongoing process developed through tainable and user-friendly format so that the whole community of an evolving discussion between government stakeholders and their relevant stakeholders can actively participate in disaster risk reduction constituents. Opening access to information allows a broader set of and prevention. 3 Somik V. Lall, Uwe Deichmann (2009). x / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Chapter 1 Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions This chapter gives a brief overview of the stan- A risk-based approach can provide a more comprehensive perspec- dard risk assessment methodology with an tive on the projected costs and bene�ts of an investment evaluated emphasis integrating the outputs, or risk infor- with respect to the consequences of disaster events and climate mation, into a flexible and dynamic decision- change scenarios. It is widely accepted that such cost-bene�t evalu- making process, and introduces the pilot work in ations provide quanti�cation of the bene�ts of new measures and Can Tho, Vietnam and Jakarta, Indonesia where can be used to stimulate economic, ef�cient public investments. the methodology was applied. RISK aSSESSmENT Focus on Investment Decisions The objective of a risk assessment is to provide a quantita- Phase I of the Urban Resilience Program aims to develop the neces- tive measure of the possible impacts of disasters and climate sary background information for subsequent risk assessments with change with respect to infrastructure and investment plan- integrated components to address the effective use of city-level geo- ning activities. spatial risk information in urban infrastructure investments. The standard expression of disaster risk, illustrated in Figure 1, quan- In the process of making budgetary and investment decisions, deci- ti�es the probability of adverse consequences such as loss of life, sion-makers need consistent and quantitative tools to evaluate destroyed or damaged assets, and other economic impacts through existing and perspective public investments. Integrating risk-based an analysis of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability.5 methods into cost- bene�t approaches enables the consideration of the impacts of climate change and disasters by means of quantifying Figure 1 Key elements of risk calculation the economic consequences of these events. Risk = haZaRD X eXPosURe X VULneRaBiLiTY Climate change adds a layer of uncertainty and cost to these consid- erations. The Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Report esti- mates that East Asia and the Paci�c region has the highest annual A risk assessment is a technical tool for quantifying the prob- cost of adapting to climate change amongst all six geographical ability and consequences of disaster and climate events. When regions of the World Bank.4 investment measures or actions reduce the probability or consequences 4 World Bank (2010) Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Megacities. 5 UN (2011) Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 1 FIGuRE 2 Dynamic decision-making process Flood Risk Information 1. Problem This section provides an overview of the assessment and eval- Statement: system uation stages with examples of the risk information required definition, scope, hazards for flood resilient investment decisions with special focus on geospatial data as both inputs and output information for use in decision-making. A more detailed presentation of issues related to urban flood risk and resilience can be found in the refer- enced material.6 Dynamic Analysis for: 4. Risk reduction and 2. Risk Assessment: • Current conditions Flood risk information is necessary to quantify the effective- control: investment qualitative analysis • Future variations in ness of various urban planning and infrastructure investments decisions and risk mapping climate, exposure in reducing a city’s vulnerability to flood hazards inclusive of • Multiple investment options the uncertain impacts of a changing climate. Tools and models used to produce disaster and climate risk information are data inten- sive and complex due to the multiple dimensions of risk. 3. Risk Evaluation: Geospatial Data in Risk assessments: A risk assessment quanti- socio economic cost benefit analysis �es both the probability of disaster events and their consequences. To evaluate the impact or consequences, geospatial data represent- ing the hazard extents and relative locations of the elements exposed of a disaster, the relative change in risk can be evaluated by compar- is required. Figure 3 provides insight into the level of complexity of ing the difference in expected value of the impact. This process is the flood risk assessments and the range of required data. application of a risk assessment as part of a cost-bene�t analysis. A majority of elements labeled as Primary or Derived Information The approach adopted by this study involves the integration contain geospatial data. For example, the information needed for of a risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis within a dynamic a socioeconomic analysis risk might include demographic GIS data decision-making process for the purpose of informing resilient with population or population density by census track or neighbor- urban investments. Figure 2 indicates the elements of the process, hood. Flood hazard calculations often require detailed high resolu- which is driven by a problem statement speci�c to the investment tion remote sensing products such as LiDAR, and satellite or aerial decision. Technical risk information created during the assessment imagery in order to derive digital elevation models. It is important to and evaluation stages provides the basis for risk reduction measures. differentiate between Digital Terrain Models (DTM), which display Most importantly, the cycle repeats for consideration of variations in the bare earth elevations and contours and Digital Surface Models conditions such as climate change scenarios, growth in exposure, and investment options. 6 World Bank (2012) Cities and Flooding. 2 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho FIGuRE 3 Detailed scheme Photos LIDAR of flood risk management Image processing Precipitation Topographic info Demographic Economic Environmental Orthophotos Digital Elevation Hidrological data Models: incl. Socio-economic Environmental processing DTM, DSM data processing data processing Flood hydrographs (DSM-DTM) Friction Flood River network Hazard Model Vulnerability Infrastructure Model Land cover Flood hazard maps Legend Flood risk maps Primary information Derived information Administrative Process boundaries Decission Definition of measures: For each measure check: – Economic feasibility Flood risk – Socio-economic impact management plan – Environmental impact – City-specific measures (Source: Royal Haskoning/HKV) Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 3 (DSM), which capture built objects such as dikes, buildings, and roads. challenge is the resolution and accuracy that can be achieved under Built-up features can signi�cantly change the distribution of flood- the constraint of validation data and critical base data sets such as ing. Other crucial input GIS data sets include river network, buildings the digital elevation models (DEM). and infrastructure, and land use maps. The results of the analysis also historical Scenario: The representation or reconstruction of past include GIS data to display hazard and risk maps. flood events can be a valuable step to understand the hazard to which The scale of a flood risk analysis differs depending on the application a city is exposed. Flood extents may be derived from observational or use. For instance, a risk assessment for an urban drainage invest- datasets such as earth observation maps from satellite imagery, radar, ment requires different data sources than for instance delta scale or aerial photography. Alternatively, hydrodynamic models with cali- management plans, see Table 1. bration and validation data collected from �eld water depth measure- ments can also be used. Figure 4 displays a historical flood extent map TaBLE 1 Scale of data and application – examples for Vietnam from the 2007 Jakarta floods produced using models and validated with �eld observations. The quality and accuracy of these scenarios Example Extent will vary considerably depending on the resolution of the available Scale level Example applications for Vietnam input data, including the digital elevation and hydrodynamic models Multilateral decision-making Regional/ and the observation data sets used to validate them. Mekong Delta Policy development National River Basin Management A disadvantage to using only historical scenarios as the basis for Lower Mekong Delta Large infrastructure planning risk calculation for investment decisions is that changing conditions, Sub-national in Vietnam Provincial planning such as climate change and information quantifying the probability Urban Planning of the event, are not taken into account. Infrastructure planning City City of Can Tho Local retention basins probabilistic analysis: Observational datasets can be used to esti- Local flood defenses mate the historical occurrence probability for flood scenarios such as District scale, individual Building codes Local monthly, annual, and 1/10 year events. Estimating lower probability infrastructure scale Flood mitigation, retro�tting and potentially more damaging events however cannot be achieved with purely a historical, statistical approach. Flood hazard for existing and future conditions: Flood hazard The frequency of flooding is determined by a statistical analysis of in terms of the spatial flood extent and intensity can be represented the natural phenomena causing flooding: as historical event scenarios or the output of a probabilistic hazard ■■ peak river discharges; analysis. The physical processes that drive the occurrences of these ■■ rainfall events; events are the domain of the scienti�c experts who build models ■■ high tides; and to estimate their characteristics. At a macro-scale Global Circulation ■■ spatial and temporal correlation of the above. Models (GCMs) can be used to predict trends in the climate such as rainfall patterns that cause flooding events. However, a common 4 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho FIGuRE 4 historical event scenario for 2007 flood in Jakarta ■■ micro drainage (1/2-1/10 year); with affected industrial sites7 ■■ sub-macro (1/10-1/25 year); ■■ macro (1/25-1/100 year); and ■■ sea defense (1/1000 year). In the previous steps, the flood hazard for the existing situation has been determined. It is also necessary to consider future conditions including the uncertain effects of climate change and other factors such as ground surface subsidence or changing watershed man- agement. With each of these scenarios, flood hazard analysis can be performed to include the results to feed into a more robust risk assessment. The listing of important climate change related stimuli includes several factors that can increase flood hazard9: ■■ increased temperature (including seasonal changes); ■■ more heat waves, cold spells; ■■ more cold spells; ■■ more intensive and frequent storms; Based on trends from historical observations and the use of simula- ■■ more flooding, and more extreme floods; tion modeling techniques, probabilistic hazard analysis can produce ■■ more extreme rain (including seasonal changes); information about future hazard events. Outputs of probabilistic ■■ change in annual or seasonal water availability; hazard analyses are the quanti�cation of both the frequency and ■■ more droughts; and severity of all flood events that may affect a location. Therefore foot- ■■ sea level rise. prints, including water depth, flow, duration, are produced together with the occurrence probability of the event. Probabilistic hazard There are several opinions regarding the multiple sea level rise pro- maps represent flood potential from a combination of all event for a jections which could be use for future scenarios. For land use and given occurrence probability. spatial planning purposes, it is often advised to use an “upper limit� expectation of sea level rise scenarios to prevent the development of The results of probabilistic flood hazard analyses can be used to potentially affected areas on a longer time horizon. Whereas for infra- inform building codes. Different type of infrastructures would typi- structure investments, a mean expectation of sea level rise is often cally have different standards. For example, the spatial plans design used. The decision of building costly infrastructure to protect against standards for flood control infrastructure in Jakarta8 are: 50-100 year SLR scenario could be postponed in favor of more imme- diate needs. As an example, a city might decide again budgeting in 7 Basemap © 2012 OpenStreetMap contributors, CC BY-SA; Flood data 2007 Jakarta Flood Management Project – Dutch Aid. 8 Spatial Plan DKI 2030 for Jakarta (Rencana Tata Ruang Wilayah (RTRW). 9 GTZ (2009). Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 5 the short term to construct a levee for 1 meter SLR, if the expecta- 2007-2011, see Figure 6. With the advanced satellite-based moni- tion of this rise is not to occur within the coming 50 years. However, toring techniques it is possible to monitor displacement trends and reserving space in the spatial plans for this levee to be improved in the follow them building-by-building and other single infrastructure future would be advisable as a resilient planning strategy. points especially. This high precision monitoring can then provide unique inputs to rehabilitation and maintenance of flood control FIGuRE 5 Inundation potential from 1 meter sea level rise infrastructure. In order for this information to be used in a flood scenario for Can Tho hazard analysis, the subsidence rates are combined with an accu- rate, high resolution digital elevation model to provide an absolute reference for the deformation and the input for the surface water run-off calculations. Various scenarios exist for the future behavior of the subsidence, with uncertainties due to possible reduction of groundwater extraction (slowing down the pace in the long term) and the likelihood that the rate decreases in the long term as soil set- tles. The Jakarta Costal Defense Strategy project estimates that the FIGuRE 6 Subsidence rates average for 2000–2010 in Jakarta Source: 2009 World Bank LRAP When analyzing future flood hazard, it is critical to consider subsid- ence and its potential effects on natural drainage capacity. For exam- ple, in Jakarta signi�cant portions of the city are already below the sea level. The recent European Space Agency10 study has detected deformation rates of more than -7.5 cm per year on average from 10 ESA/Altamira (2012) for the World Bank: EO Information Services in support of Source: ESA/Altamira Information based on ALOS data. Analysis of Land Subsidence in the Agglomeration of Jakarta. 6 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho percentage of Northern Jakarta below Mean Sea Level will increase FIGuRE 7 Land use exposure map for ho Chi minh City from 50% to 90% by 2030. Exposure and Vulnerability to Flooding: The exposure compo- nent of the risk assessment involves quantifying the spatial, physical, and monetary value characteristics of elements at risk to flooding. There can be a wide range of asset classes to be considered in an exposure analysis depending on the desired output of the overall assessment. For example, a city government may be interested in the exposure of public assets including schools, hospitals, and sectoral infrastructure such as roads, bridges and communication networks. Maps with the geospatial layers for exposure are valuable to display the distribution of assets at risk to a given hazard. In Figure 7, the categorization of exposure by land use type for Ho Chi Minh City was used as part of quantitative multi-hazard vulnerabil- ity assessment conducted in collaboration with the European Space Agency11. Such studies demonstrate that high resolution, accurate exposure data can be derived from remote sensing methods using satellite imagery. Source: ESA/Altamira Information based on ALOS data. The next step of an exposure analysis is to estimate the replacement Several methods are available for deriving damage functions includ- costs of the assets. With this information, the output of the risk ing analytical engineering models and statistical analysis that cor- assessment can more easily be linked to a quantitative cost-bene�t relate observed damage data with flood depth. Figure 8 displays an analysis for investment decisions. In order to calculate the damage example of flood damage functions for different classes of exposure in monetary terms, the risk assessment process also requires vulner- including listed in order of decreasing vulnerability: general buildings, ability or damage functions for the different types of exposure which housing, industrial, agriculture, and recreation. could be speci�c building type, such as single story residential struc- Anticipating or recognizing patterns of growth which change ture, or for a land use class, such as low density residential. The vul- the exposure distribution in the city are important future sce- nerability approach should match or have a logical relationship to narios to be considered in the risk assessment. Socioeconomic exposure characteristic that have been collected. For each exposure developments can be distilled from the various spatial master plans category, a speci�c damage function is estimated and used in the which guide investments and planning on longer time horizons. The direct physical damage assessment. effect of planned socioeconomic developments on the total exposure 11 ESA/Eurosense for World Bank (2012) EO Information Services in support of Multi- and vulnerability to flooding is determined by the changes quantify- Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam). ing the following in geo-referenced data: Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 7 FIGuRE 8 Example flood damage function FIGuRE 9 Risk assessment calculation 1 Exposure 0.8 0.6 Risk Vulnerability Alpha 1 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.4 Hazard 0.2 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Water level (cm) Recreation Agriculture Buildings Housing Industry ■■ value of property; communication the risks to various stakeholders. In flood risk ■■ built-up areas; maps, areas of high risk are presented, and the evaluation of invest- ■■ infrastructure; ment strategies is made more visible in a graphical way. Figure 10 ■■ population;and displays the economic damages from a historical flooding event in ■■ changes in land-use and the use of open spaces. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.12 This map allows decision-makers to see the spatial distribution of economic damages across the city Calculating Flood Risk: As described in the beginning of this chapter, and consider what mitigation options would bene�t areas that have standard risk calculations include hazard, either scenarios or probabi- been historically at higher risk to flood. listic with a frequency component, and the combination of exposure and vulnerability to estimate flood impacts and damages. The analyti- Quantifying the impacts of disasters through a risk assessment is cal steps shown in Figure 9 indicate the flow of information from the valuable for a range of investment decisions. It should also be con- hazard and exposure components to the vulnerability function which sidered that the types of impacts and nature of damages and losses yields estimated damage as a measure of risk. vary considerably depending on the perspective of the assessment. The presentation of risk assessment results through maps 12 ESA/Eurosense for World Bank (2012) EO Information Services in support of is very useful in the decision-making process as well as in Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Ho Chi Minh (Vietnam). 8 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho FIGuRE 10 Scenario economic damage pap itself. For example, businesses or homes that have not actually been for ho Chi minh City inundated may be affected if services such as road access or power supply are disrupted by the event. Indirect damage is often estimated as a proportion of the direct damage, as in the case of the Netherlands 25% is assumed. Regional integration means damages reach beyond the edge of actual floodwaters. This was the case of the 2011 floods in Thailand which impacted regional industrial supply chains beyond total damage and losses amounting to 46.5 billion USD.13 TaBLE 2 Types of disaster impacts Economic Non-Economic • Residences, Commercial, • Population (casualties, Industrial Buildings psychological cost of • Vehicles, Stock and Supply, other displacement) non-structural property • Environmental • Agriculture, Livestock • Historical and cultural • Infrastructure and other public Direct facilities • Utilities and communication For example, many assessment methodologies focus on the direct • Business interruption (inside impacts or physical damages directly linked to the hazard, such as a flooded area) • Evacuation and rescue flood event. These direct losses are more straightforward to evaluate operations with the standard relationships between the severity hazard event, • Clean up costs location of the damage assets, and occurrence of damage of cer- • Business interruption/supply • Societal disruption tain severity, as described by the preceding methodology. However, chain disruption to industry • Damage to there are consequences of disaster events that are more challenging outside flooded area government capacity Indirect to quantify and can signi�cantly contribute to the overall risk that an • Substitution of production urban infrastructure investment seeks to mitigate. The information outside flooded area • Extended temporary housing in Table 2 provides examples of these general categories of disaster impacts within a matrix for Impact Type (Direct or Indirect) and Asset or permanent relocation of evacuees Type (Economic or Non-Economic). Indirect impacts or consequences occur as a result of the disaster, although not due to direct physical damage of the asset or object 13 Thai Floods: Rapid Assessment for Resilient Recovery and Reconstruction Plan- ning� Link: http://www.gfdrr.org/gfdrr/thaifloods2012 Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 9 The categories of assets as economic or non-economic coarsely dif- TaBLE 3 Socioeconomic cost benefit analysis summary ferentiates between impacts that can be understood and quanti- Socioeconomic CBa �ed in more standard valuation approaches versus impacts where Goal of analysis; which • What is the welfare change for society the quanti�cation can be subjective and more challenging to de�ne. question does it answer? due to a project? The economic column in Table 2, lists several approaches to estimat- Perspective (target • All actors of a society, e.g. a geographical ing both direct and indirect impacts that are well-understood and group) region like a country, province or city applied in risk assessments. In the non-economic column, impacts Type of impacts Socioeconomic impacts: human welfare in such as damage to the environment or casualties require a differ- terms of: ent approach. In some case, there are emerging methods to quan- • market internal and market external; tify these impacts which will be explored in the following section on • directly and indirectly linked to the project; socioeconomic approaches to cost-bene�t analysis. Time span • Depends on the when possible an infinite time span is used CoST BENEFIT aNaLySIS (CBa) • impacts later in time count less than impacts early in time due to discounting When a risk assessment is used to quantify the added value Reference situation/ The current situation plus autonomous of a project or measure, it can become part of the cost-benefit base line developments analysis. In the cost-bene�t analysis, a range of impacts beyond the direct damage are assessed including costs for mitigation measures In this way, socioeconomic cost-bene�t analysis can be used to and emergency aid and the relative decrease in damages due to enhance a sustainable economic development, as it reveals the bal- these measures. Because the impact of a project is often wider than ance (or imbalance) between market and socioeconomic impacts. just the damage avoided, a socioeconomic cost-bene�t analysis is Because in SCBAs all impacts of a planned project are, in general, used in many countries. expressed in monetary terms, it resembles a �nancial cost-bene- Socioeconomic Cost Benefit: The socioeconomic cost-bene�t �t analysis. The main difference between the SCBA and the stan- (SCBA) analysis is a method to assess a broader range of positive dard CBA is the inclusion of both market and non-market welfare and negative impacts of an investment (project) to the public and impacts. the city government’s key stakeholders. In socioeconomic cost-ben- Below, a list provides a summary of the most common criteria used e�t analyses, �nancial impacts, environmental impacts, and social in evaluation of flood risk measurements through a cost-bene�t impacts are considered. All these impacts are expressed in mone- analysis. tary terms. The advantage is that all impacts can be added so that it becomes clear if an investment has a positive or negative balance. ■■ Economic bene�ts, including direct damage reduction The outcome of the cost-bene�t analysis is usually expressed as related to damages to property, industry, agriculture, etc., the net present value or internal rate of return. When the balance and indirect damage reduction related to loss of business, of a project is positive, the investment is socioeconomically sound. evacuation costs, disruption of society. 10 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho ■■ Social bene�ts related to reductions in the affected area in ■■ Efficiency: Is a project ef�cient in terms of achieving more terms of assets, people, vulnerable points (hospitals, police bene�ts than costs, as compared to other proposed projects station, power plants); psychological damage, loss of life. under consideration for the same public �nancing? ■■ Environmental bene�ts related to water quality improve- ■■ Effectiveness: Is a proposed project the best way to reach ment, biodiversity. the speci�ed goal, or are there other options less expensive ■■ Costs for construction, operation and maintenance. with the same result? In ex-ante decision-making, direct economic damage is usually val- ■■ priority: If a project is ef�cient and effective? What’s the ued with replacement costing and productivity costing methods. For best time for project implementation? indirect or non-economic damage the monetization is more compli- cated as the market prices are not always available. Several options pilot applications are available to estimate the value of flood risk reduction14: A pilot phase of the Urban Resilience Program explores the needs of the decisions-makers in two East Asia cities: Can Tho, Vietnam and ■■ Damage Cost avoided: The economic value of flood dam- Jakarta, Indonesia. The work consisted of three core components: age is estimated by the costs of measures to prevent flood- ing. i. Stocktaking of city stakeholders’ risk assessment needs and ■■ averting Behavior method: The economic value of flood existing data sets. damage is estimated by the costs to avoid actual damage and unwanted effects. ii. A risk-based design review of a planned infrastructure invest- ment. ■■ Replacement Costs: The economic value of flood damage is estimated by the costs to repair or compensate for flood iii. Recommendations for the mainstreaming the effective use of damage. climate and disaster risk information in city’s investments deci- ■■ productivity Costs: The economic value of flood damage sions. is estimated by the costs of the loss of production of com- mercially marketed goods. The �ndings and examples from this work are presented throughout the report in the context of methodology which is broadly applica- ■■ Conditional Valuation method: The economic value of ble. It is valuable to note the similarities, differences, and lessons for flood damage is estimated by creating a hypothetical mar- other cities that come from the analysis. A number of contemporary ket in which people are enabled to price flood damage. studies focus solely on the issues facing Asia’s megacities, however, From the decision-making perspective, investments can be evalu- by including Can Tho, a mid-sized city of over 1 million dwellers, this ated based on ef�ciency, effectiveness, and relative priority: study demonstrates that methodology focusing on building resil- ience can be implemented within a range of contexts. 14 Based on Ruijgrok et al., 2004 and Wagemaker et al., 2008. Chapter 1: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions / 11 Box 1 Flood risk information and public investment decision-making in the Netherlands hIS-SSm is the Dutch flood damage assessment model. It uses through the flooded areas are cut off or production stops repair and reconstruction costs, business interruption and an estimate due to lack of supplies from industry within the flooded of indirect effects to determine flood damage. The approach to evalu- area. Indirect damage is estimated by the productivity costs. ate flood damage is captured in the so-called ‘Standard Method’. The Standard Method comprises about 20 land-use types as representa- Impact on Investment Decisions: The HIS-SSM and the Standard tive of exposure/vulnerability categories. Many of these categories are Method are used in the Netherlands to determine flood risk and differentiated according to damage type: the costs and bene�ts of flood management measures. In the risk- based approach both the probability and possible impact of a flood ■■ direct damage within the flooded area: due to physical are considered. Besides the assessment of actual risk, flood damage damage to buildings, inventories, terrain and infrastructure. assessment is also used in cost-bene�t analyses of flood manage- The economic value of the flood damage is estimated by ment measures. Since January 1, 2007 the national government is rebuilding/ replacement costs; obliged to prepare a cost-bene�t analysis using the ‘Overview Effects Infrastructure’ (OEI) approach for all infrastructural measures of ■■ direct damage caused by business interruption within the national importance. This encompasses the assessment of the posi- flooded area: economic damage caused by production loss. tive and negative effects of a proposed measure on safety, economy, The economic value of flood damage is estimated by the and quality of life. The effects are expressed in monetary terms. OEI productivity costs; and is also obligatory for flood management measures comprising an ■■ indirect damage outside the flooding area: economic dam- assessment of a proposed measure on the change in risk (Ministerie age outside the flooded area because transportation routes van Verkeer en Waterstaat, 2007). 12 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Chapter 2 Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam Located on southwest bank of the hau River in mean sea level. Although located more than 60 kilometers from the the mekong Delta, Can Tho is Vietnam’s fourth coast, the Hau River at Can Tho is still strongly influenced by the tidal largest city with approximately 1.25 million regime. Its peak water level at springtide is regularly only a few deci- inhabitants. It was raised to the level of a first meters below the majority of the street surfaces. When heavy rains class city in June 2009, which is an administra- occur during spring tides, inundations are almost inevitable. tive zone equivalent to a province and under the direct control of central government. Can Tho is Natural hazards and Climate Change considered the most important center for com- merce, culture, education, and health services in Each year, about half of the delta is flooded by river water from the mekong Delta. one up to three meters under extreme conditions. Signi�cant his- torical hazard events in living memory include major floods in 1978 Current trends show Vietnam continuing to evolve from a develop- and 2000. After the recession of the floodwaters, other problems ing agricultural based economy into a more industrialized, urban can occur due to reduced river flow and sea water intrusion further country.15 As a result of this shift in socioeconomic conditions, inland. Highly uneven seasonal distribution of rainfall causes tem- the urban centers of Vietnam are developing at a high pace. The porary drought conditions in the central and eastern parts of the Mekong Delta is an agricultural economy in which Can Tho plays Delta. Recently, occurrences of river bank erosion phenomena along a vital role in distribution and processing the goods. In the eco- the main Hau and Mekong rivers, inland canal system, as well as nomic master plan developed in 2006, the city set aggressive tar- the eastern coastal belt are increasing. Although typhoons from the gets including growth in the industry, trade, service and high-tech Eastern Sea rarely pass the Mekong Delta, the threat is still directly agriculture sectors. Can Tho maintained an average GDP growth present in this area. Equally, windstorm or thunderstorms occur dur- rate of 16% per year for the 2006-2010 period, and is expected to ing the rainy season and have caused fatalities, damages and losses. have a GDP growth rate of 17.1% for the 2011-2015 period and Photo: Oskari Kettunen 18% for 2016-2020 period.16 The natural setting of Can Tho and the delta region in general is vir- tually a flat topography and on average about 0.80 to 1 meter above 15 For details, see World Bank (2012) Vietnam Urbanization Review. FIGuRE 11 Recent flooding in Can Tho 16 Can Tho, Master Plan 2007. Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 13 Reference map for Can Tho, Vietnam Impacts of Climate Change: The most likely climate changes for possible adaptation measure as identi�ed by the World Bank17. Sea Vietnam are increases in average temperature, drier dry seasons, level rise, total rainfall increase, and changes in extreme weather are wetter wet seasons, and an increase in sea level rise by 2100 (from the most relevant for urban resilience considerations. a baseline of 1980–99) of somewhere between 25 cm and 1 meter. At a national level, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environ- Table 4 summarizes key climate change trends, their impacts and ment (MoNRE) has endorsed various climate change scenarios for TaBLE 4 Vietnam climate change impacts Sea Level Rise that are based on the IPPC emission scenarios: low (B1), medium (B2), and high (A1FI). Figure 12 displays the expected Expected Climate most Significant major adaptation inundation for the Mekong Region as a result of the B2 Sea Level Changes Consequences measures Temperature rise of Reduced integrity of Adaptation for natural Rise scenario in 2100 of 0.75 meters. 2.3°C by 2100 natural ecosystems; some ecosystems dif�cult to agricultural sectors will be impossible; support affected resilience of agricultural FIGuRE 12 moNRE 0.75 meter sea level rise inundation sector map for mekong Region18 Sea level rise of Salinization, loss of land, Improved water resources about 3 cm per impacts on agriculture, management; support decade, perhaps worsening of extreme resilience of agricultural increasing at a weather events (storm sector; support resilient faster rate in future surges) urban planning (including infrastructure planning); analytical work on costs/ bene�ts of coastal and river defenses Seasonality of Impacts on agriculture; Improved water resources precipitation: greater challenges management; support wetter wet seasons for water resources resilience of agricultural and drier dry management (particularly sector seasons in dry seasons) Total rainfall likely Impacts on agriculture, Improved water resources will increase urban drainage management; support resilience of agricultural sector; improved urban and infrastructure planning Extreme weather Potentially more economic Improved natural disaster events likely will be impacts and loss of lives risk management more common or more extreme Source: World Bank, Climate resilient development in Vietnam 17 World Bank (2011) Climate resilient development in Vietnam. 18 IMHEN copyright 2009, Based on DEM (5 x 5 km) Provided by National Remote Sensing Center, MONRE. Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 15 Summary of key hazards: Building on past Studies ■■ flooding as a result of rainfall and poor drainage in combi- To address the strong interest from city authorities for mitigation nation with high river stages, high tides in combination with strategies, the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction large river discharge, and typhoons; and Recovery (GFDRR) initiated the Climate Resilient Cities Primer ■■ river bank erosion; and in three cities in Vietnam.19 Pilot exercises have been completed in ■■ salt water intrusion. the three cities of Ha Noi, Can Tho and Dong Hoi, resulting in initial Local Resilience Action Plans (LRAP) as an initial input into Can Tho’s At the moment, the hazards in Can Tho might not be alarming, larger resilience planning efforts. however, the situation will likely worsen in the future due to sea level rise and aberrant weather patterns as a result of a changing cli- Can Tho’s LRAP serves as a planning document for the government mate. Taking into account these hazards and uncertainties in urban to improve its resilience to the potential effects of climate change planning and infrastructure investment decisions is vital to secure a and natural disasters, forming a part of the city’s overall approach climate resilient city in the future. to meeting its broader growth and development objectives. The Hot Spot Matrix exercise from the LRAP study con�rmed that the most FIGuRE 13 Community interview sessions in Can Tho important vulnerabilities in Can Tho are to drought, flood, extreme precipitation, windstorm and river bank erosion. Initial investment needs indenti�ed by the LRAP served as a basis for the Building Urban Resilience Program, both this study and the ongoing World Bank technical assistance in the second phase which is developing an Integrated Flood Resilience Master Plan. Aiming to better understand how residents perceive natural hazard risks in their areas and what type of disaster preparedness actions have been taken, the World Bank/ GFDRR and the Global Network for Global Network of Civil Society Organizations for Disaster Reduc- tion (GNDRR) commissioned a qualitative survey on the “Perceptions of Risks in Can Tho.� Interviews with some 1,100 families living in both the urban and rural areas of Can Tho took place from Septem- ber to October 2011. Source: Development Workshop France (2011) 19 World Bank (2012) A Workbook on Planning for Urban Resilience. 16 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Although there are differences based on the socioeconomic levels, the City people’s Committee’s Role �ndings show that the existing coping capacity of the population as in Building Resilience a whole is relatively high and able to adapt to the need to “live with floods.� However, the survey also highlights that while children are Before the city’s needs for risk information can be assessed, it is nec- well-aware of the danger of natural disasters, and informed by their essary to understand the priorities for investment decisions in terms schools or public media, in certain areas with flood risk and danger of of the natural hazard exposure and institutional context of the key drowning, less than half of the children know how to swim. stakeholders. FIGuRE 14 Can Tho stakeholders People’s Committee of Can Tho City Coordination Office for Climate Change Department of Natural Resources & Environment Department of Agriculture & Rural Development Department of Information & Communication Institute for Building, Design and Planning Center for Meteorology and Hydrology Department of Science & Technology Institute for Socio-Economic Study External Relations Department Department of Construction Department of Planning Department of Finance Department of Health Red Cross Can Tho Dai Hoc Can Tho People’s Committee of Districts People’s Committee of Committees, Wards 17 / Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 17 As part of this initiative, interviews were held with key stakeholders, uRBaN pLaNNING aND INFRaSTRuCTuRE including several of the institutions listed in Figure 17, such as City INVESTmENT NEEDS People Committee, Department of Natural Resources and Environ- ment (DoNRE) of Can Tho, Department of Planning and Investment Discussions with key stakeholders indicate that for sustainable (DPI), Department of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARD), growth of Can Tho, urban development investments are needed to Department of Construction (DoC), Institute for Architecture and achieve the following outcomes: Planning, DRAGON Institute Can Tho University, Department of Sci- ence and Technology (DoST), Department of Construction (DoC), ■■ improve sanitation and water quality, Department of Transport (DoT), Climate Chang Coordination Of�ce ■■ increase resilience to disasters such as flooding, (CCCO), Southern Institute of Water Resource Planning (SIWRP), Southern Institute of Water Resources Research (SIWRR). ■■ improve planning practices that account for impacts of cli- The Climate Change Coordination Of�ce is a permanent staff mate change and promote “green density� in urban areas, organization reporting to the People’s Committee with the task of ■■ support economic growth in key sectors such as tourism establishing institutional mechanism and policies with the aim of and agriculture. managing, monitoring and implementing climate change resilience plans. This institution is well-placed to promote resilient investments Improving water quality and sanitation requires a range of invest- through collaboration with other institutions. In order to identify ments related to urban drainage, handling of waste water, and planned or potential investments that require risk information, these addressing salt water intrusion into ground water. There is a natu- stakeholders are considered to be key investment decision-makers in ral intersection between the climate change related hazards of sea Can Tho: DPI, DoNRE, and DARD. level rise, with its impact on urban flooding and salt water intrusion, Alignment with National institutions is also critical. In the areas of and the investment priorities of water quality and increased resil- disaster risk management, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Devel- ience. Incorporating green planning practices in order to improve opment (MARD) was designated in 2007 as the coordinator for the the environmental quality can have positive effects on a city’s resil- National Strategy for Natural Disaster Prevention, Response, and Miti- ience. Well-planned green spaces and lakes improve drainage and gation to 2020. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment decrease urban flood risk. (MONRE) has been designated the lead agency for climate change Other hazards such as river bank erosion also require attention in order coordination in Vietnam. Furthermore, MARD chairs the Central Com- to improve water quality and protect property and livelihoods during mittee for Flood and Storm Control (CCFSC) with participation from normal river flow and in times of flooding. Maintaining and protect- MONRE and several other ministries. ing Can Tho’s rivers is important for tourism and industrial agriculture sectors. Although not directly considered within urban development, investments in infrastructure that supports high-tech agriculture and diversi�cation into crops and �sh including processing of goods, have been identi�ed as important for Can Tho’s future growth. 18 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Examples of desired infrastructure investments include: increase the penetration of salt water inland. Additional structural prevention measures can be taken to stop intrusion of salt water ■■ urban Drainage: increase quantity of water storage areas into the land, however they might not be part of an economically (low-lying river banks, low-lying areas in the city, dredg- viable or robust solution. The damage as a result of salt water intru- ing and expansion of existing ponds) to reduce flooding of sion can be reduced also by selecting crops which are less suscep- urbanized areas. tible of degradation due to small amount of salt water. Alternatively, ■■ Flood protection: develop an early warning system for important infrastructure and factories relying on fresh water can be disaster response; strengthen river flood (tides, high dis- planned outside of the areas of projected salt water intrusion. charge) protection, including protection of river banks The following information is needed to perform a risk assessment to against erosion. determine the effect of salt water intrusion on planned investments: ■■ Environmental Quality: increase quantity of public green ■■ Salt water intrusion scenarios: hazard maps, including vari- spaces, for instance parks and lakes, consider building den- ous projections for sea level rise. sity and green density. ■■ Expected damage: observed damages to assets such as ■■ Water Quality: coordinate waste water and sanitation sys- crops, infrastructure. tems with general drainage, and protect against salinity intrusion. ■■ Possible mitigation measures: possible solutions in planning and infrastructure investments to mitigate these effects. RISK INFoRmaTIoN FoR CaN Tho’S maIN The Southern Institute for Water Resources Research (SIWRR) has hazaRDS performed several studies on flooding and salt-water intrusion. Haz- ard maps are available with future salt intrusion scenarios for sea Based on the priorities set by the stakeholders, the main hazards level rise predictions. Geospatial data for exposure and past dam- considered for the analysis of risk information needs are salt water ages to crops and critical infrastructure are however not widely avail- intrusion, river bank erosion, and flooding. able. Salt Water Intrusion: Increased salinity in the soil and ground River Bank Erosion: Whether caused by natural scoring of the water is already a problem in the Mekong Delta during the dry sea- banks or by the contentious practice of sand mining, erosion is a son. Without the fresh water coming in from upstream river, the salt threat to property and livelihood in Can Tho where much economic water can intrude into the land though the extensive network of canals and rivers, as well as through the ground water. activity depends on proximity to the rivers. Can Tho’s stakeholders need information to be able quantify risk from this hazard and opti- At various locations in the Mekong Delta, tidal structures partially mize investments such that damage and loss of life due to river bank protect against salt water intrusion. However, sea level rise will erosion is minimized. Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 19 For a risk assessment of river bank erosion, the following informa- duration, flood velocity, overlay of water level with ground tion is needed: elevation levels, rainfall patterns. ■■ River bank erosion scenarios: hazard maps, identi�cation of ■■ Infrastructure, drainage, pumps and other hydraulic struc- susceptible locations based on soil conditions, structural infor- tures maps: including drainage capacity, locations of small mation of buildings or infrastructure along river banks, and canals, urban drainage systems, pump capacity, existence erosion trends including historical (satellite) imagery of river and operation of hydraulic sluices / culverts / barriers / levees. bank erosion, morphological models, and dredging volumes. ■■ Hydraulic conditions of river system: tides, storm surge, sea ■■ Reports on historical river bank erosion: including observed level rise projections, discharges. damages. ■■ Possible mitigating measures: physical infrastructure invest- ■■ Possible mitigation measures: Building codes for river bank ments, urban planning alternatives. construction, river bank protection policy framework. A suitable digital elevation model (DEM) is needed with high vertical The availability of geospatial information for current river bank ero- elevation resolution due to flat topography of Mekong Delta. This sion is limited. General trends in river bank erosion should be col- can either be collected by LiDAR acquisition or by converting survey lected and presented as spatial data to show the location vulnerable information into a DEM. General observation is that the schemati- to erosion. Information on damages as result of river bank erosion zation depends to a large extent on a proper DEM and suf�cient is available for speci�c cases, however, for a general assessment, a knowledge and insight into the flooding characteristics of Can Tho. more detailed study is needed. Further analysis should address the Various models are available in Vietnam for calculating inundation in causes of river bank erosion and determine the sensitivity of future Can Tho. SIWRR, SIWRP, the University of Can Tho have developed conditions to climate change. models through speci�c projects. Currently, sharing knowledge Flooding: The largest challenge for Can Tho and the Mekong between these institutions is limited and the associated geospatial Delta as a whole is to make investment decisions in the mid- output data are not publicly available. term and long-term future, which will minimize the risk of As part of the analysis of causes of flooding, it is necessary to consider flooding as result of a combination of high river discharges, the impact of infrastructure development, such as unplanned con- high tides and rainfall, while maximizing the benefits of sea- struction of the flood protection embankments, or changing of land sonal flooding on the agriculture sector. use planning, in upstream provinces (e.g. Dong Thap and An Giang). Chapter 1 provides an overview of the methods and data require- So far, there has not been a conclusive study focusing on this issue, ments for flood risk assessments. For a risk assessment of flooding, however, according to the of�ce of Provincial Committee for Flood the following information is needed: and Storm Control (PCFSC) the flood level of 2011 was higher than 2008 with less water discharge. Therefore, it is important to link the ■■ Historical flood hazard maps: including flood depth, flood city flood management with the regional flood management plan. 20 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho General urban Drainage Challenges operation and maintenance: In general, most government agen- cies responsible for urban drainage systems are conducting a wide Climate change and urban migration threaten to exacerbate range of duties and services such as pipeline construction, sewer many existing drainage problems. The impact of climate change pipe production, and dredging of sediments in septic tanks for on urban drainage systems is a higher discharge demand from more households. Lack of �nancing for operation and maintenance activi- frequent storms, increased rainfall, and a rising sea level. The chal- ties is a major problem of drainage departments, with the budget lenges related to urban drainage represent the intersection of many only meets about 50-70% the requirements activities. Because of issues including: infrastructure to control general drainage, storm the lack of budget, the scope of operation of drainage services is water, and solid waste, as well as the operations of maintenance of estimated to account for only half of urban areas. The activities such these systems. as maintenance, dredging sewer systems are not always conducted Storm water treatment: In the rainy season, about 30% of urban in a timely and comprehensive manner. In fact, the above tasks are areas suffer from flooding after heavy rains. Duration of floods can often carried out only just before rainy seasons. As a result, many last from one to twelve hours. Although drainage systems in flooded drainage canals or ditches are often full with sediments, vegetation, areas have been cleaned up, these areas can be flooded again after or other solid waste materials. only a few years. Lack of operation and maintenance and the com- bination with poor solid waste management is the main cause. High RISK aSSESSmENT DESIGN REVIEW FoR density housing areas and roads result in high percentage of paved BuN xaNG LaKE land coverage, limiting the areas of grass or green area in the cit- ies, and increasing the about of runoff from storms. The amount of This section describes a concrete example for the urban devel- open water for storage is also often limited. opment of the area around Bun xang Lake and presents an analysis to determine how to risk information can guide the Solid waste generation and drainage infrastructure: In Viet- functionality and requirements for increased resilience of the nam, there are about 15 million tones of solid waste per year gen- investment. Located in the heart of Can Tho, the lake is planned to erated from different sources, of which, about 80% (equivalent to be rehabilitated to improve water quality and provide a green space 13 million tons per year) is generated from households, restaurants, amenity. At the same time, it can be also effectively used as a reten- markets and commercial areas. Total solid waste generated from tion basin to reduce flooding impacts and provide a good example industrial production zones is about 2.7 million tones, accounting of increasing resilience of urban investments. for about 17%. The issue of uncontrolled solid waste management, throwing of rubbish or even construction waste into drainage and The assessment considers the risks and the requirements for the lake in retention systems is the cause that storage capacities in lakes and the context of urban flooding, drainage and water quality. Supported ponds are constrained, such as throwing of rubbish or even con- by information on the available geospatial data, the case study offers struction waste into drainage and retention systems, causes storage initial de�nition of requirements and considerations to be followed for capacities to be constrained. further development of the lake with strengthen elements of resilience. This study has been developed at the request of and in coordination Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 21 with the Vietnam Urban Upgrade Project Phase II (or VUUP II), which is FIGuRE 15 proposed planning diagram for Lake Bun xang funding the Bun Xang Lake project. It is part of 112.7 million USD pro- and surrounding area gram addressing a variety of infrastructure needs related to drainage and environmental sanitation, upgrading of Bun Xang Lake, Ngong and Sao canals, roads in Ninh Kieu district, expanding roads in Cai Ranh dis- trict, and build three resettlement areas in O Mon, Cai Rang and Binh Thuy district. Box 2 provides further details. Current Design plans: Bun Xang Lake is located about 1.5 kilome- ters west of the city center. Within the current VUUP II program for the area, the following investments are foreseen: ■■ dredging 18 hectare to reduce vegetation; ■■ embankment of 2.9 km; ■■ 7 meter wide road around the lake with street lights; ■■ combined waste and storm water sewer pipeline Proposed dredging of Lake Bun Xang alone is not a permanent connection; measure and needs to be combined with an operation and main- ■■ overflows on Northwest bank; tenance strategy. Dredging and landscaping will not increase reten- tion capacity in itself. An inlet and outlet structure will be required to ■■ sewerage pumping station; control the water level during the rainy season in order to optimize the storage of storm water from the surrounding areas, including ■■ small park and trees along the road; and run-off from approximately 300 homes. ■■ community hall. The purpose of the Bun Xang Lake is schematically presented in In Can Tho, Lake Bun Xang and the surrounding area are under- Figure 16. At present, signi�cant volumes of water are directly dis- going urban upgrading, which includes enhance waste water and charged through the drainage system, which is insuf�cient to store urban drainage infrastructure as part of overall sanitation improve- signi�cant volumes of water. By upgrading the Bun Xang Lake, it ments. A flood risk assessment of the functionality of the lake needs will function as a reservoir which can be used for “peak-shaving� to be undertaken so that proper use is made of the lake for potential intense rain fall events. Doing so, the burden on the drainage and storage and retention of storm water. sewerage system is reduced and more time is allowed to discharge the volumes of rainfall. This investment can enhance the climate resilience of the neighboring communities in Can Tho given that: 22 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho ■■ Increasing rainfall intensity and subsequent floods will require of the system and condition survey), including connections between more storage capacity in intermediary drainage systems. Can Tho drainage and canal systems are required. Calibration data for the hydraulic model and estimates of flooding frequencies from ■■ The capacity of existing drainage systems, which are mainly historical data sets including water level statistics from Hau River and gravity driven discharge into the river network, will decrease main channels through the city, and rainfall statistics, is needed. due to sea level rise. As part of the proposed detailed analysis, the following characteris- FIGuRE 16 Function of a storage basin in urban drainage tics in Table 5 of the lake system must also be de�ned: management TaBLE 5 Bun xang Lake design requirements System Description Detailed schematic of lake Rainfall Catchment size Inflow nodes Design Conditions Design rain storm for 1/100 year event: estimate 100mm/hour estimated concentration time of rainfall peak Storage Capacity Requirement for current and new design conditions Storage volume requirement for peak rainfall Maximum and Minimum water levels Design requirements for inlet and outlet structures For Bun xang Lake, the following steps are proposed to pre- operation and maintenance Requirements pare the risk assessment: Minimum required water level during dry season Pumping capacity First estimate approach: Analyze historical flooding in the area Design requirements for outflow structure including local surveys, and information from damage and hazard Operations and maintenance guidelines reports. Conclusions of this exercise will provide a �rst estimate of the flood depth per region and observed frequency of occurrence. preliminary design recommendations: Increasing the storage Detailed approach: Develop hydraulic model of the local drain- capacity of the lake is an effective measure to reduce the impact age system including the existing lake and present state of drain- of peak rainfall events. The initial assessment of the existing Lake age canals and sewer system. Elevation data is critical for hydraulic Bun Xang shows that the area is lacking suf�cient surface water modeling - a detailed DEM is needed for the two dimensional runoff and green area to cope adequately with localized flooding risk from model. Accurate survey of the drainage system (or as-built drawings intense rainfall events. Using the lake as retention basin is a useful Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 23 option. The following adjustments to the lake design are advised: More generally, the current urban drainage plan for Can Tho is only integrated in general urban development plans, showing minimal ■■ Include two control structures at inflow and outflow points information about the scale of collection network and the locations to enable water level control and some flow control. If there of wastewater treatment plants. Water drainage service should be is tidal variation in the outflow channel, a non-expensive integrated with environmental protection activities, especially, water and effective measure would be to construct an outflow environment; therefore, it needs to be integrated to the manage- sluice which only discharges when the water level in the ment of river basins. The scale of wastewater networks, discharging lake is higher than the outside water level. The outflow points into the environment, treatment level and the scale of treat- structure can be designed as a weir in combination with a ment plants are all determined by catchment planning to achieve sluice valve. The upstream inflow can be managed a similar the best result in economic ef�ciency and environmental protection. structure including a trash rack to collect solid waste. ■■ Sound operation and management of the lake is needed FIGuRE 17 Example sluice valves for outflow of water in order to prevent future growth of unwanted vegeta- tion, water level control for outflow drainage gradient, and removal of other sediments and solid waste. ■■ Increase the total storage area of the lake. Suggestions for this are to connect the lake with other areas, to create new lakes or to create a combination of functions, for instance by using underground storage in sidewalks, roads or even buildings. Case Study Implications: The investment planned for Bun Xung Lake aims to improve water quality and the environment in general as a green space amenity. This study indicated that investment can be optimized also to reduce flood risk though increased water stor- age. Investments can be further optimized by preparing an operation Source: Royal Haskoning plan and flood control structures. Investment in these structures has to be balanced by flood damage impact reduction. Special attention should be paid to operation and maintenance and especially how to CoNCLuSIoNS organize this in a sustainable manner. Without proper maintenance, availability of Risk Information: There is suf�cient data available the lake will lose its optimal function quickly as vegetation, sedi- for performing initial risk assessments for river erosion, flooding, and ments, and solid waste can over time reduce its capacity. salinity intrusion at a large urban scale. For higher resolution, full 24 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho risk based assessment in support investment decision-making, more decisions across agencies and stakeholders. Also, based on the �nd- data is needed especially to estimate probability of events and to ings of the community risk perceptions study, it is equally important analyze the impacts to the assets and populations exposed. to the technical risk assessment activities that future resilience pro- grams or action plans should be prepared with the active participation With respect to flood risk in particular, the stakeholders in Can Tho are of families, local authorities and local communities. Both community all in agreement that a higher resolution digital elevation model (DEM) engagement and risk information can greatly increase the resilience is needed to improve the ability to model flood hazard. For detailed of Can Tho by improving the assessment, designing of works, imple- risk assessment studies at the local level, more hydraulic and ero- mentation and monitoring of activities to reduce the impact of exist- sion data is required. Information on exposure assets including public ing disasters and the potential results of climate change. infrastructure and vulnerable communities could be greatly improved. However, an analysis of existing databases of socioeconomic informa- Looking Forward: Phase II of the Urban Resilience program will con- tion could provide a �rst approximation of exposure. The other chal- duct a risk assessment study for the Can Tho basin area to underpin a lenge with the use of geospatial risk information is that much of the comprehensive integrated flood risk management plan. This approach data is not publically available. Therefore, it is critical to continue to includes a set of priority structural and non-structural measures that engage the range of data owners, both public and private sector, to will provide sustainable flood management. Building on the existing motivate improved sharing and coordination of information. situation with flood management and the identi�ed constraints and barriers, an overall macro-framework for comprehensive integrated Stakeholder Engagement and Capacity Development: With flood risk management plan will be prepared that will guide govern- respect to the management of risk information, it is important to ment and agencies involved with flood management during the next further develop the capacity of existing institutions. The CCCO plays decades (up to 2030) towards sustainable flood management in and a key role within departments. There is also already good coordina- around Can Tho. The plan will have to include the optimization and tion between CCCO and researchers at Can Tho University, who prioritization of four main key elements, namely the institutional foun- have both GIS and technical capacity for risk assessments. The dation, managing flood hazards through structural and non-structural PCFSC Of�ce also plays an important role in reducing and prevent- measures, managing exposure to flood hazards, and managing vul- ing disaster risks throughout southern Vietnam. Both PCFSC and nerability to the residual flood risks. Can Tho’s CCCO should be equally engaged and considered as the key agencies for the next steps. To promote better coordination and Based on demand from key stakeholders, there will also be a comple- sharing of information about disaster and climate risk, involvement mentary scope of work in Phase II aimed at addressing the capacity of key institutes such as the SIWRP and SIWRR can also help to use development needs to manage and share risk information. The tools geospatial data more effectively. and technologies described in Chapter 4 will be further developed in partnership with local technical experts and capability building in the Recommendations: New tools and concepts on the use of geospatial area of GIS systems for analysis and data management will be con- data can be leveraged to increase the use of geospatial risk informa- ducted in coordination with other development partner activities. tion across all levels of government. The goal is to stimulate a dynamic cycle of improved information and analyses to guide investment Chapter 2: Case Study Can Tho, Vietnam / 25 Box 2 Vietnam urban upgrading project (Vuup) Hanoi objectives of Vuup: To alleviate poverty in urban areas by improv- 8. Identify services that communities have to contribute. ing the living and environmental conditions of the urban poor using participatory planning methods, and influencing planning processes VUUP project is implemented in two phases with components in to become more inclusive of vulnerable groups. Can Tho: 1. Include community participation in identifying investments and phase 1. Carried out from 2004 to 2008 as a pilot. Implementation its size and scope. to collect realistic lessons, including upgrading of nine low income 2. Minimize relocation or resettlement. spots (low income areas - LIAs, approx. 485,936 m2) in two wards: 3. Implement with close partnership with local governments An Hoi and An Cu (nearly 51% of the total 950,000 m2 area of these (Decentralized management at the city-level). wards). 4. Adapt lessons learned from similar projects globally and the phase 2. Implemented from 2009 to 2012 in a larger scale, covering Region. 25 low-income areas (1,051,545 m2) in 11 wards: Cai Khe, An Hoa, 5. Have technical standards that are appropriate with the commu- Thoi Binh, An Nghiep, An Lac, An Phu, Xuan Khanh, and Hung Loi nities’ demands and capacities. of Ninh Kieu District; An Thoi, Binh Thuy, and Tra Noc of Binh Thuy 6. Coordinate with the city’s master plan and local area plans. District. However, in this second phase, the LIAs cover only 2.35% of 7. Have surveys for the primary and secondary infrastructure and the total 44,800,600 m2 area of the 11 urban wards. plans for linking with the tertiary infrastructure. 26 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Chapter 3 Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia as the capital city of one of the fastest devel- TaBLE 6 urban risk assessment hazard summary for Jakarta, oping countries in South-East asia, Jakarta faces mayor’s Task Force a unique set of challenges and opportunities as hazard Effects Losses it continues to rise in international importance. Earthquake Until now small in scale with Until now no great Daerah Khusus Ibukota Jakarta (DKI) Jakarta, the very little physical damage. material or life loss from special capital area and province level adminis- earthquakes. tration unit, is home to over 9.5 million people. River Flow Disruption of business, Property damage, business Taking into account the geographically contigu- damage to property, power damage ous districts, or Kotas in neighboring provinces, outage, groundwater Tainting of ground water, pollution, distribution of solid loss of life, the larger metropolitan area referred to as Jabo- waste through high and fast detabekjur, has a population of more than 27 water flow. Spread of disease and million people according to the 2010 census. refuse. This makes it one of the five largest metropoli- Floods, Depending on severity can Loss of property and tan areas in the world.20 Inundations affect traf�c circulation, businesses, spread of business activity, damage to illness and loss of life, loss property, power outages, of access to clean water. Natural hazards and Climate Change displacement, spread of disease. According to the Urban Risk Assessment Case Study as part of the Storm Surge Locally known as “rob,� Seawater intrusion into Mayor’s Task for analysis of Jakarta21, the city is exposed to multiple extreme tidal floods from drinking water, damage hazards both natural and compounded by climate change and other the sea have become more to property including man-made factors. As indicated in Table 6, the most serious hazards serious in the past few years boats, halt of industry and in Jakarta are associated with hydro-metrological threats and flood- in the coastal areas of the mobility ing in particular. city. Sea water intrusion into aquifers. Extreme As a result of both Loss of life due to dengue, Temperature urbanization and loss of usually within very poor 20 City Population Agglomerations (2012). green space, increases in communities. 21 World Bank (2011) Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor. ground temperature and resulting instance of dengue. Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 27 Reference map for Jakarta, Indonesia 28 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho The main conclusions of the Mayor’s Taskforce Urban Risk Assess- Heavy showers frequently result in inundations of low-lying streets ment Case Study are as follows: and houses throughout the city, disrupting social and economic activities, transporting garbage and mud into the streets and houses ■■ Strong and sustained growth in Jakarta’s population and and contributing to health problems. economy have resulted in a vast increase in the urbanized area, and concomitant land use change. As part of determining risk assessment needs, a review of past stud- ies was conducted and capacity gaps and any other constraints to ■■ Jakarta’s rapid growth and urbanization have given rise to risk-based infrastructure investment decision-making were indenti- large-scale infrastructure problems that are mostly well doc- �ed. Assessing the capacity of local government institutions to effec- umented and understood by the DKI government and the tively manage geospatial data as part of strengthening the use of public. risk information is considered critical to the urban resilience agenda. ■■ Jakarta is now highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate FIGuRE 18 Tidal flooding in northern Jakarta, November 2007 change. The greatest climate and disaster-related risk fac- ing Jakarta is flooding, which imposes very high human and economic costs on the city. ■■ Jakarta’s poor are productive and integral members of the city’s economy, and are also the most vulnerable to flood related risks. ■■ The urban poor have important roles to play in addressing Jakarta’s vulnerability to climate change and disasters. ■■ The government of DKI Jakarta has started taking action on climate change, but much remains to be done to main- stream climate change across all sectors for the long term. Focus on urban Flooding: Jakarta is located in a delta of 13 rivers. Severe floods took place in Jakarta 1996, 2002 and 2007, which at times inundated more than half of the city. Population growth and land subsidence of around 10 cm per year are aggravating the situ- Source: HKV ation. Without adequate action, floods in Jakarta will become much worse in future. Besides extreme events, the urban micro drainage infrastructure is insuf�cient to drain excess rainwater appropriately. Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 29 Government’s Role in Building Resilience TaBLE 7 Key stakeholders in provincial Government of DKI Jakarta The urban investment decision-making process in Jakarta centers around various DKI Jakarta agencies and departments, national Organization Responsibilities ministries, international development partners, and to lesser extent Bappeda (Badan Perencanaan Investment decision stakeholder: private sector investments. These decisions are part of a complex Pembangunan Daerah), Bidang Main coordinator for budgeting a budgeting process stretching across multiple levels of govern- Prasarana, Serana Kota dan and development for all provincial ment. Urban investment needs for urban planning and infrastruc- Lingkungan Hidup (Department of agencies Infrastructure and Environment in ture, and the corresponding risk assessment and geospatial risk Planning and Development Agency) information needs were identi�ed through communication and Bappeda, UPT Pusat Informasi Technical stakeholder: Manages interviews with key stakeholders and institutions responsible for Perencanaan Pembangunan data related to APBD (Yearly city-level investments, relevant Non-Governmental Organizations (Integrated Service Delivery Unit inRegional Development Budget) and (NGOs), and international and multinational donor organizations, Planning and Development Agency) act as Information System Manager. including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan International Biro Tata Ruang DKI Jakarta Technical stakeholder: Formulation Cooperation Agency (JICA), Institute for Essential Services Reform (Bureau of Spatial Planning and of policies management of Environment) administration in spatial planning (IESR), Mercy Corps Indonesia and the Royal Netherlands Embassy. and environment. In the description of the perspectives involved in this analysis, it is Bidang Sumber Daya Air, Dinas Technical stakeholder: Carry important to distinguish stakeholders with an investment decision- Pekerjaan Umum (Department out management, guidance, of Water Resources, Public Work development, improvement, making role versus technical data or information providers. These Agency) maintenance, control and safe two perspectives relate to each other as follows: the analysis seeks to guarding roads, bridges, water understand speci�c investment decisions including the main stake- resources and utilities holder responsible for de�ning them (investment decision- makers) Bidang Tata Ruang Perkotaan, Technical stakeholder: Carry out and based on their information needs, both investment decision- Dinas Tata Ruang (Department of spatial planning, implementation, makers and technical stakeholders seek to improve the effective use Urban Spatial Planning, in Planning and control, and the holding of and Development Agency) land affairs of risk data. BPLH - Badan Pengelola Lingkungan Technical stakeholder: Formulation province Government’s Role: Investment decisions within the Hidup (Environmental Control of policies and carry out duties on provincial government involve a budgeting process that starts with Agency) environmental management midterm plans (RPJMD) and ends with the annual budget (APBD). Ideally, DKI Jakarta’s budgeting process should begin with Long BPBD - Badan Penanggulangan Technical stakeholder: Build Term Development Plans (RPJPD), however, the �rst RPJPD is under Bencana Daerah (Province Disaster a reliable system of disaster development and will be completed by 2012. The APBD (Anggaran Management Agency) management and to carry out a Penerimaan dan Belanja Daerah) of DKI Jakarta is determined by a planned disaster management. process based on: 30 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho FIGuRE 19 annual budget planning envelope and budget resources allocation. Besides the RPJMD, each agency has an individual strategic plan, called Long term plan, 20 years RENSTRA SKPD. At the end of his term, the Governor is obliged to account for the execution of their duties in accor- RpJpD dance with this planning document before Parliament. Medium term plan, 5 years ■■ Rencana Kerja pemerintah Daerah (RKPD). Regional Government Annual Work Program and Budget. A Local Government statutory plan document for 1-year period, RpJmD consisting of regional economic framework, program, activ- Province Government Annual Work Program ities, performance indicator and indicative budget ceiling for each agency. Besides the RKPD, each agency has an indi- vidual annual work plan, called RENJA SKPD, consisting of RKpD agency’s programs, activities and indicative budget ceiling based on the result of Musrenbang, the technical meeting Province Government Annual Work Budget that every agency holds, to determine their annual program and budget. apBD National Government’s Role: Besides through the annual budget plan of the province (APBD), there is also funding allocated to DKI Jakarta through national budget (APBN). The national procedure on ■■ Rencana pembangunan Jangka panjang Daerah budget process has largely the same content as the regional process. (RPJPD): Regional Long Term Development Plan. A Local The contribution from national budget to regional expenses is not Government statutory plan with 20 years perspective. It always administered under the APBD. An example is the develop- consists of vision, mission and general direction of local ment of the Eastern Flood Channel that was completed in 2011 with development. At present, DKI Jakarta does not have such co-�nancing by province and national funds. The budget for land plan but refers to the RPJPN 2005-2025: National Long acquisition came was paid from regional budget (2.4 trillion IDR) and Term Development Plan. the construction costs were paid by national budget (2.5 trillion IDR). ■■ Rencana pembangunan Jangka menengah Daerah From the listing of key National stakeholders in Table 8, the two (RPJMD): Regional Medium Term Development Plan, cur- institutions warrant further discussion due to their important role in rently for 2007-2012. This is a statutory plan document addressing flood risk in Jakarta. consisting of Governor and Bupati/ Walikota vision, mission and agenda and its translation into local development strat- Within the Ministry of Public Work, the Directorate General egy. It includes a �ve-year program and indicative resource human Settlements is responsible for formulating policy and Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 31 TaBLE 8 Key stakeholders in National Indonesian Government Organization Responsibilities Bappenas (Badan Perencanaan dan Pembangunan Nasional), Direktorat Investment decision stakeholder: Formulate policy formulation, Tata Ruang dan Pertanahan (Directorate of Spatial Planning and Land coordination, synchronization of the preparation and evaluation of the Affairs, Ministry of Planning and Development) national development planning in the �eld of spatial planning and land affairs as well as monitoring and evaluate its implementation. Kementrian PU, dirjen Tata Ruang (DG Spatial Planning, Ministry of Public Technical stakeholder: Formulate policy and strategy for urban Works) development, conduct training, monitoring and evaluation of the implementation of urban spatial planning, and developing national strategic urban areas Kementrian PU, Dirjen Sumber Daya Air BBWS Cilcis, Balai Besar Wilayah Technical stakeholder: Implement water resources management including Sungai Ciliwung Cisadane (River basin Board of Ciliwung and Cisadane planning, construction, operation and maintenance within the framework rives, DG Water Resources, Ministry of Public Works) of conservation of water resources, utilization of water resources and control the destructive force of water in the river basin area. Kementrian PU, Sub direktorat Drainase, Dirjen Cipta Karya (sub directorate Technical stakeholder: Responsible for formulating policy and strategy for Drainage, DG Human Settlements, Ministry of Public Works) Drainage system at national level Kementrian PU, Sub direktorat Pengembangan Sumber Daya Air Dirjen Technical stakeholder: Responsible for carrying out the preparation and SDA - Sumber Daya Air (DG Water Resources, sub directorate River Basin construction of norms, standards, procedures, and criteria and providing Planning, Ministry of Public Works) guidance for water resources planning and management in river basin to the related local and regional government agencies BIG - Badan Informasi Geospasial (National Survey Coordination and Technical stakeholder: Carry out government duties in the �eld of survey Mapping Agency) and mapping according to law and regulations. BMKG - Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geo�sika (National Agency of Technical stakeholder: Carry out government duties on the sector of Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics) Meteorology, Climatology, Air quality and Geophysics according to existing Laws and Regulations BNPB - Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (National Disaster Technical stakeholder: Protecting the nation from the threat of disasters Management Agency) through mitigation, build a reliable system of disaster management and to carry out a planned disaster management. LIPI - Lembaga Ilmu Pengetahuan Indonesia (Indonesian Institute of Technical stakeholder: Carry out government activities related to science Science) 32 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho strategy in the �elds of drinking water, wastewater, drainage and is demand driven, meaning that external funding should meet the solid waste. Speci�cally, the sub-directorate of drainage and solid goals described in the RPJMN (National Medium Term Development waste is responsible for providing technical guidance and facilitat- Plan). The projects are documented in the Blue Book and the Green ing development of drainage and solid waste management systems. Book, issued by the Ministry of Development Planning (Bappenas). If the loan or grant concerns a local government, it will be included in Interregional Water Resources Management in Indonesia is placed the APBD (the external loan or grant administered �rst in Blue book, with the Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai (BBWS). A BBWS is responsible Green Book, APBN and conclusively APBD). Local government can- for interregional water resources management of a speci�c water- not directly apply for or receive external loan or grant as all must go shed, which includes planning, construction, operation and main- through central government. tenance of conservation of water resources, utilization of water resources and managing the destructive force of water in the river ■■ The Blue Book22“contains development project proposals basin area. Their policy and strategy is formulated in a document to be �nanced through external loan and/or grants. Proj- named Pola Pengelolaan Sumber Daya Air Wilayah Sungai (River ect proposals submitted by the Ministries/State Agencies, Basin Water Management Plan) or the ‘Pola SDA’. There are 12 Balai Local Governments, and State-Owned Enterprises have Besar for the whole of Indonesia. been through feasibility assessment for external loans and/ or grants funding. The proposed projects are prepared in The Balai Besar Wilayah Sungai Ciliwung-Cisadane (BBWSCC) line with the development goals of the National Medium- concentrates on management of the Ciliwung-Cisadane, the main Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2010-2014.� rivers crossing Jakarta. BBWSCC is currently developing a Pola SDA for Ciliwung-Cisadane River Basin. When �nished, it will be legalized ■■ The Green Book23 “contains a list of proposed projects as Ministerial Decree of Public Works. In DKI Jakarta, the executing that are eligible for being funded by external loans and/or agency of BBWSCC is either the Department of Public Works of DKI grants. Thereby, the projects in the Green Book are the proj- Jakarta or DG human Settlements. For example, Balai Besar gave ects that are contained in the DRPHLN-JM, that have already the authority to DG human Settlements to implement the con- met most of the readiness criteria and that have already struction of the Eastern Banjir Canal. obtained the indication of funding source from the prospec- International Development partners: Funding for major infra- tive development partners�. structure investments also occurs through international develop- ment partners such as various bilateral and multilateral donors and NGOs. Budgeting processes follow individual donor regula- tions and connect to the national budget (APBN) through the Min- istry of Development Planning (Bappenas). Due to the limitation 22 Blue Book - Daftar Rencana Pinjaman / Hibah Luar Negeri - Jangka Menengah (DRPHLN-JM). List of Medium-Term Planned External Loans and Grants (DRPHLN- of domestic funding, the government also utilizes external fund- JM) 2011-2014. ing, among others, through external loans and/or grants or Pinja- 23 Green Book - Daftar Rencana Prioritas Pinjaman / Hibah Luar Negeri - Jangka man dan/ atau Hibah Luar Negeri (PHLN). The international funding Menengah (DRPPHLN). List of Planned Priority External Loans and Grants (DRP- PHLN) 2011. Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 33 uRBaN pLaNNING aND INFRaSTRuCTuRE Water management: The flood risk in Jakarta is large and increas- INVESTmENT NEEDS ing with the ongoing subsidence. The largest infrastructural proj- ect on water management of the recent years is the Eastern Banjir In the medium and long term, three large problems will dominate Channel, completed in 2011 at a cost of 4.9 trillion IDR (500 million urban planning in Jakarta: transport, water supply and water man- USD). An important planned project is World Bank funded Jakarta agement. The growing population and economy leads to an increase Urgent Flood Mitigation Project, in which 13 canals in Jakarta will in movements around the city, making ef�cient transport a huge be dredged, costing 150 million USD (see Box 4). Other studies challenge in Jakarta. The water supply to Jakarta is too small for its to address the flooding issues include the Dutch funded “Jakarta population, so that much groundwater is extracted for domestic and Coastal Defence Strategy,� (see Box 3). industrial water supply. Many believe there is a strong relationship between the groundwater extraction and the ongoing subsidence in Focus on Flood mitigation: Given the challenges associated Jakarta, see Figure 7. addressing flood risk through urban investments, the remainder of the Jakarta Case Study focuses on decisions and risk informa- Transportation: Ef�cient transport is a huge challenge in Jakarta. DKI tion needs for this topic. In 2010, the province planning agency Jakarta is currently improving the public transport system -- 100 million USD (Bappeda) budgeted, in coordination with province department of budgeted in 2011 for busway development, MRT development and bus public works (Dinas PU), a master plan for flood mitigation in DKI terminal and constructions for elevated roads are ongoing --60 million USD Jakarta. The total costs of the master plan are 28,584 trillion IDR budgeted for 2011. International cooperation also focuses on transport. (3.2 billion USD). Budgeting schedule is spread over two time-frames In the Green Book through a 120 million USD loan by JICA for the Tan- 2010-2013 and 2014-2020. Current disbursement progress as of jung Priok Access road and a 3.7 million USD grant by JICA for techni- November 2011 is 8%. The Master plan consists of: cal assistance for improved transportation in Jabodetabek; and project proposals in the Blue Book for an Intelligent Transport System 50 mil- ■■ Drainage improvement. Including micro drainage, reten- lion USD and the design and construction of an MRT system, total 600 tion and pump capacity in east, centre and west Jakarta. million USD. Total 1.4 billion USD. ■■ River improvement. Includes land acquisition, normalisa- Water supply and sanitation: Large investments are needed for: tion and dredging. Total 1.7 billion USD. 1) water treatment plants and network; 2) water supply and pipe- lines network for West, East and North Jakarta; 3) new ponds in ■■ Improvement of retention ponds. Total 65 million USD. South Jakarta for raw water; 4) alternative raw water resources; and ■■ Coastal Defense. Improvement of coastal defense (walls). for 5) improvements in water services to slum areas. One large infra- Total 11 million USD. structural project planned in the Blue Book is the development of Jatiluhur Water Supply Project - Stage I for a 50 million USD loan ■■ Road protection: Improvement of 73 inundation problems with 7.5 million USD co-�nancing, which aims to improve water on artery roads. Total 19 million USD. supply service coverage for 400,000 house connections or 2 million The Master Plan is based on “Drainage management for Jakarta: people in DKI Jakarta, Bekasi, and Karawang. Strategic action program development� also known as DKI3.9, 34 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Box 3 Jakarta coastal sea defense developed under the West Java Environment Management Plan, The Dutch government currently funds this Technical Assistance project IBRD loan 4612-IND/IDA Credit 3519-IND. This study contains with a 750,000 EUR grant and as of June 2011, Minister for Development Cooperation con�rmed extra grant 4 million EUR for a Master Plan Jakarta. detailed engineering designs for 26 priority locations and prelimi- The JCDS project currently identi�ed three options for coastal development nary designs for 52 locations. and protection of Jakarta from the sea: The drainage management plan DKI3.9 was conducted by a con- option 1: Northern dike, sortium of foreign and local �rms, led by Nedeco from the Nether- inward retention and extra lands. The main output of the DKI3.9 project is a strategic study for pump capacity. Estimated costs the short and long term programming and implementation of urban 4 billion USD (including land flood mitigation project packages. The approach was not merely one- acquisition). Inward retention sidedly technically oriented, but also addressed the socioeconomic, combination with 30% green space objective (spatial plan) institutional, �nancial, community-empowerment and environmental aspects. A cost and bene�t analysis of individual project components was done to determine economic feasibility based on investment cri- option 2: Land reclamation teria of Economic Internal Rate of Return and Net Present Value. in combination with northern dike, inward retention and Costs: The costs include construction, compensation, administration, extra pump capacity. Estimated engineering, price contingency, physical contingency and value added costs 4 billion USD.■ tax. The total construction cost estimated in DKI3.9, for all 78 projects was 2.39 trillion IDR (277.9 million USD, price level 2006). The cost for land acquisition was calculated for the 26 priority locations, equiva- lent to 550 billion IDR (64.7 million USD, price level 2006). option 3: Land reclamation in combination with outward Benefits: The positive impacts were calculated based on annual retention, far northern dike. operations and maintenance expenditures of Department of Public Estimated costs: 5 billion USD. Works DKI Jakarta of the past �ve years to tackle flood and environ- Requires raw sewage and mental problems, and a flood survey conducted through community sanitation, water supply, traf�c infrastructure and reclamation, surveys as a flood damage estimate. estimated 16.6 billion USD. Total prioritization of Investments: Currently, the prioritization of proj- cost is estimated 216 billion USD.■ ects is not formally organized. DKI3.9 did include a �nancial and economic analysis with priorities; however the data behind these are additional measures: If all options are combined, total costs will come not available to be used for updating calculations with the changing to 7 billion USD (excl. sanitation). All options can be combined with toll flood risk conditions. To determine priorities and budgets, there has roads (for Option 1 extra 300 million USD, Option 2 and 3 extra 3 billion USD). All options should be combined with investments in drinking water been no technical, risk-based analysis. There are several examples on supply, 3 billion USD. how allocated budgets differ substantially from estimated costs in Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 35 DKI 3.9. This highlights a critical need for tools and methodologies pluit Background: The Pluit Polder is the oldest urban polder in that support prioritization decisions in the budgeting process and do Indonesia, developed around 1970 with a total area of 20.8 km2. It so using the risk-based approaches described in this report. flooded severely during the floods of November 2007 and has fre- quent inundation problems due to poor micro drainage. The Istana Merdeka, President’s palace, is located in Pluit Polder. DESIGN RISK aSSESSmENT FoR mICRo DRaINaGE Description of works in pluit: The inundation area in Pluit (NOS. DKI 13) is in Kecamatan Penjaringan. The main drains are Kali Sen- The issues related to prioritizing investments are the subject of the tiong, Kali Mati, Kali Ancol, Saluran Pembuang Pademangan Timur. risk assessment design for the Jakarta case study. For example, the Proposed improvements include: construction of dike along of Kali study on micro drainage will consider investments in two locations Muara Karang, dredging of Ring Canal, construction of pump sta- with in DKI Jakarta, Pluit and Tomang Rawa Kepa. The results of the risk assessment and cost-bene�t analysis could be used to prioritize tion and installing of pump, construction of retention basin, general the implementation of these measures. maintenance to existing pumping and retention infrastructure. Tomang Background: Tomang village is located in the West of The description of the two sample locations of micro drainage invest- Jakarta, under the sub-district of Grogol-Petamburan. However, ments are summarize in Table 9. floods often occur due to insuf�cient capacity of sub macro and micro drain and insuf�cient capacity of pumping station, encroach- TaBLE 9 Summary of example micro drainage investments in ment by informal settlers and when water level is high causing over- Jakarta flow from Grogol River and Flood West Canal. Moreover, there are Name pLuIT TomaNG many solid waste found all over the drainage and retention pond. Area (ha) 771 188 Description of works in Tomang: The inundation areas Tomang Population 59,594 27,851 Rawa Kepa (NOS. DKI. 15) are in Kelurahan Tomang and area of sur- Problem • Overtopping from Kali • Encroachment by illegal rounding Jalan Semangka (NOS. DKI. 16), located in Kelurahan Jati description Muara Karang and residential Pulo and Kelurahan Kota Bambu Utara, which is served by Pondok Waduk Pluit • Unavailability of screen at Bandung Pump. Proposed improvements include: increasing pump- • Damaged gate in pump basin ing capacity, construction of regulator gates, construction of side outlet of Waduk Pluit ditch collector, dredging of retention basin, as well as general main- • Frequent inundation • Over flow from the Kali tenance to existing pumping and retention infrastructure. of low lying area Grogol and Banjir Kanal around of Kecamatan • Low capacity of the Risk assessment Design: In keeping with the methodology pre- Penjaringan pumping station sented in Chapter 2, the following sections describe essential com- • Capacity of sub macro ponents of the risk assessment and cost-bene�t analysis process and micro drain are not to determine the effects of micro drainage and prioritize between optimized investments options. 36 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Flood hazard assessment quanti�es how the probability of flooding ■■ population growth: Forecasted or assumed population will reduce because of investments in micro drainage systems, from numbers are needed to determine the impact of an event. every rainy season to design standard, i.e. 1/10 inundation. Being A change in prognoses of population growth may severely interested only in the impact of micro drainage, the floods that affect the outcome of a cost-bene�t analysis. occur as a result of river or sea floods are not taken into account. ■■ Economic growth: GDP in Indonesia grew a little over The requirements of the macro-system should of course be taken 5% on average over the last 10 years. This means that into account as a precondition. To estimate the current probability GDP has doubled in about 15 years. Most of the GDP of different flood scenarios, historical datasets can be used, e.g. for comes from industry (46%), services (37%) and agri- monthly, 1/1 and 1/10 events. Historical dataset must be extrapo- culture (16%). lated with the subsidence and sea level rise scenario, influencing the natural drainage capacity. Data Requirements. Data requirements for risk assessments and cost-bene�t analysis are dependent on the decision that needs to With respect to exposure, vulnerability and the calculation of eco- be taken. Table 11 includes a general list of data required for the nomic impacts, Table 10 contains examples of expected conse- micro drainage assessment and comments about the existing infor- quences of investments in micro drainage, with recommended quanti�cation and valuation method. The consequences can be cal- mation. culated based on a quanti�cation of the flood hazard and the char- acteristics of each asset exposed to damage. pre-conditions for the benefits to capitalize: The bene�ts of micro drainage will only capitalize if also work is done on solid- Future Condition Scenarios are used to determine how the con- waste disposal. Such pre-conditions need to be identi�ed and sequences will behave in future. The most important scenarios that managed carefully during project planning. Another pre-con- need to be considered in this case study are: dition is that there will be no increase in hard surfaces without compensating with extra retention and pump capacity, and that ■■ Subsidence: The European Space Agency detected in the the macro-system is well-maintained. Jakarta Bay district of Penjaringan a deformation rate of more than -15 cm a year. A digital height model is being generated using Cosmo SkyMed interferometric data with 5 ImpLEmENTaTIoN oF ThE RISK m vertical and 9 m spatial accuracy24 see Figure 7. aSSESSmENT aND CoST-BENEFIT aNaLySIS ■■ Sea level rise: Several projections exist for Sea Level WITh STaKEhoLDERS Rise but on the whole, SLR seems to be considerable less Risk assessment and cost-bene�t analyses are used to prioritize important than the subsidence. However, it will still impact investments and increase their ef�ciency and effectiveness. While the drainage capacity of the channels and rivers flowing the majority of the DKI Administration is involved either in prepara- through Jakarta. tion of or decision-making for investments, the �nal decision power lies with the regional parliament and the Governor. For a risk assess- 24 ESA/Altamira (2011)EOWorld. ment and cost-bene�t analysis to play a role in this process, they Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 37 TaBLE 10 Expected consequences of investment in micro drainage Impact to Kind of Formula to calculate impact : Economic Exposure asset Specification capital stock ∆ quantity * price valuation Less flood Avoided cost for cleaning up and house repair, produced ∆ flood hazard *# affected households per event avoided cost damage to replacement of damaged electronic and other capital *damage per household = IDR/yr method households25 household contents Less flood Avoided cost for repair production machines, loss produced ∆ flood hazard *# affected company per event avoided cost damage to of damaged stock capital *damage per company = IDR/yr method production Increased productivity (incl. as result less power produced ∆#production days per year * pro�t per day = IDR/yr avoided cost companies cuts) capital method Increased productivity employees human ∆#working days per year * salary cost per day = IDR/yr avoided cost capital method Less flood Avoided cost for maintenance and repair roads produced ∆ flood hazard *# affected road in km per event avoided cost damage to capital *repair cost /km = IDR/yr method infrastructure Avoided cost for maintenance and repair railroads produced ∆ flood hazard *# affected railroad in km per event avoided cost capital *repair cost/km = IDR/yr method Avoided cost for repair electricity lines and produced ∆ flood hazard *# affected infrastructure per event avoided cost telecommunication cable capital *damage = IDR/yr method Less investment Avoided expenditures made to avert or mitigate produced ∆# measures * costs of measures = IDR/yr avoided cost in mitigation negative impacts (build home two floors, capital method, measures and elevation houses, small flood defenses, sandbags, averting emergency aid pumps, shelters, clinics, cleaning etc) behavior cost Increased land/ Increased safety feeling and living comfort produced # houses * D % housing price * average housing hedonic house value capital price = IDR pricing Less waterborne Avoided medical expenses for diarrhea, dengue. social capital ∆# diseases /year avoided cost diseases * medical expenses/disease = IDR/yr method 25 The value of the house or land will increase due to reduced flood damage: double counting. An increase in house value should only be counted when there is something extra besides the avoided flood damage. 38 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho TaBLE 11 List of required data for Jakarta micro drainage risk assessment hazard Type Description Comment Historical data on hydrology Inundation pattern at different hydrological Existing models do not take into account micro drainage. and inundation patterns events (from flood records or using flood contours and a DEM) DEM Digital Elevation Model, 2005 Based on a Triangulated Irregular Network (TIN) with contour lines having an interval of 1 meter and 78,000 spot heights, the DEM was constructed with cell size of 5 x 5 m. Exposure and Vulnerability Infrastructure Roads, railways Topographic maps Houses and buildings Types of buildings and houses (1, 2 or more Combination of data from cadastre, satellite imagery and quick floors) survey on the ground Mobile assets Cars and motorbikes Statistics on average possession of car and motorbike per household Public utilities and vital infra- Power lines, hospitals, mobile networks, gas Topographic maps structure stations Population Demographic data affected people, including Average population per Kecamatan income, travel time to work Damage Repair cost and production losses Records on damage estimates from events in 2002 and 2007 are available. General statistics on production cost and repair cost. Preparation and mitigation Investments in flood preparation and mitigation General prices of mitigation measures. Assumptions on number of (sandbags, extra floors, pumps etc) measures per household. Future Scenarios Subsidence Projections based on historical trends measured by ITB and ESA are available. ESA is generating a digital height model using Cosmo SkyMed interferometric data (with 5 m vertical and 9 m spatial accuracy) Sea water level rise Climate scenarios with projections on sea water level rise Population growth Projections on average population growth and urbanization rate for greater Jakarta area Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 39 should be presented as offering valuable information to be consid- ■■ Purchase basic data from the National Mapping Agency. ered in addition to the decision-makers’ judgement. ■■ Obtain data through assignment of consultants. In determining the effects, both PU DKI as well as Bappeda could ■■ Map products are created through consultancy assign- play a role. Based on their current responsibilities, the assessment ments. of physical impact is best implemented at PU DKI, while socioeco- nomic impact could either be done by PU DKI or Bappeda, depend- Typically, these organizations do not use these data themselves, ing on the capacity and tools that are used. For example, in the rather only the derived products as printed maps or pdf, which Netherlands the risk assessment and CBA is entirely done by Minis- are prepared by consultants. Often, the geospatial data is project- try of Public Works, on the basis of an obligatory format from Min- based. The Department of Spatial Planning from Provincial Govern- istry of Finance. The actual technical assessment could be done at ment of DKI Jakarta mentioned that they create and manage maps the respective UPTs Integrated Service Delivery Unit) of the organisa- themselves. A critical improvement for the stakeholders would be tions. to clearly indicate during the tender phase of a project that they Currently there is no uniform or agreed upon format for risk become the owner of the basic GIS-data created in the project as assessment or investment decision-making. Many stakehold- part of the project result. Current practice implies that the stake- ers consider this an omission hampering development. One holders receive the �nal result (e.g. a printed map or pdf) but cannot measure that can be taken is standardization. All of the pro- use the basic data for further analysis. cedures recommended by this report apply, using ‘standard- A conclusion from the stakeholder interviews was that sharing data ization’ as a measure. Most agencies, excluding Department with other agencies is not common practice. This could be due to of Spatial Planning, Provincial Government of DKI Jakarta, do the fact that geospatial data is mainly used on project basis and IT not have expertise in how to apply geospatial information. and GIS capacity is not available within most of the agencies. Final Overall, most organizations are not yet in the position to fully reports and processed maps are typically handed over to decision- articulate their need for geospatial data. A promising develop- makers or communities without the underlying data. It is critical that ment within Dinas PU is the establishment of a UPT Informasi both the technical tools and the political relationships are developed (Integrated Service Delivery Unit) who will act as system infor- to support better management and sharing of data amongst the mation manager. This unit will house the Flood Management Infor- government stakeholders. mation System described in Box 4. Three organizations within the province are critical for improving the use of risk information in the decision-making process. Their CoNCLuSIoNS possible roles including the management and sharing of data are Apart from the Department of Spatial Planning, Provincial Govern- described below: ment of DKI Jakarta, agencies typically acquire their geospatial data 1. Dinas pu DKI. In 2012 a UPT Informasi (Integrated Service through the assignment of consultants on a project basis. Delivery Unit) will be established in the following 12 months. 40 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho The Flood Management Information System, described in Box stakeholder manages and could share for the analysis include: 4, will be housed here and therefore positions the unit to pro- vide risk information on flood hazards such as: ■■ Information on current land use and value, ■■ Information on recurrence of flood events. ■■ Information on the expected increase of value of land, and changes in land use in the next years. ■■ Impact of certain measures (such as improved micro drain- age, increase conveyance capacity, change of gate opera- provincial Government of DKI Jakarta. Bappeda is the investment tion) on the recurrence of floods. decision stakeholder and acts as a main coordinator for budgeting and development for all provincial agencies. The UPT (Integrated ■■ Information on the autonomous increase (e.g. due to sub- Service Delivery Unit) Informasi Bappeda, UPT manages data related sidence, land use change, climate change) of the recurrence. to APBD (Annual Regional Development Budget) and act as Infor- mation System Manager. This stakeholder could leverage the tools 2. Department of Spatial planning, Provincial Government presented in Chapter 4, such as the GeoNode and InaSAFE to com- of DKI Jakarta. The Department is a technical stakeholder, bine this information in order to assess the costs and bene�ts for the carries out spatial planning, implementation, and control, various investment options. and the holding of land affairs. Geospatial data that this Chapter 3: Case Study Jakarta, Indonesia / 41 Box 4 Jakarta urgent Flood mitigation (JuFmp) and the Flood management Information System objectives of JuFmp: Jakarta’s existing flood management sys- tem requires considerable rehabilitation, which needs to be comple- mented by improved planning in flood management and appropriate routine maintenance to ensure a system for flood management that can operate at optimum capacity. The Project Development Objec- tive of JUFMP is to dredge in which 15 floodways/drains and reten- tion basins and dispose the sludge material in a proper facility, using sustainable best practices. The objectives of JUFMP are to introduce improved Operations and Maintenance practices in four pilot areas: (i) Dredging - modern technology and best practice; (ii) Environmen- tal - responsible sludge disposal; (iii) Social - equitable resettlement practices; and (iv) Institutional - coordinated routine maintenance planning and practice Component 1 Dredging and rehabilitation of selected key floodways, canals and retention basins. This component will support the dredging and rehabilitation of 11 floodways / canals and four retention basins which have been identi�ed as priority sections of the Jakarta flood management system in need of urgent rehabilitation and improvement in flow capacities. The 11 floodways / canals are estimated to have a total length of 67.5 km, while the four retention basins are estimated to cover a total area of 65.1 hectares. About 42.2 km of embank- ments are expected to be rehabilitated or constructed within these floodways, canals and retention basins. Where necessary, mechanical equipment (pumps, gates, etc) will be replaced or repaired. Component 2 Technical assistance for project management, social safeguards, and capacity building. This component will support con- Figure: Hydraulic flood model of Jakarta’s main river and canal networks tract management, engineering design reviews, construction supervi- sion engineers for the dredging and rehabilitation works and technical The Flood Management Information System (FMIS) will institute: (a) flood assistance. Technical assistance includes support to improve institu- forecasting for DKI with built-in early warning during flood events; (b) tional coordination for operations and maintenance of Jakarta’s flood monitoring the long-term change of the DKI River basin areas including management system as well as the establishment of a Flood Manage- monitoring of subsidence, mitigating measures, land-use change; and (c) ment Information System (FMIS). Provision has been made for the cost capacity building to improve the management of flood control systems, of implementing required Resettlement Action Plans, as well as the communication during flood events, the preparedness by understanding establishment and operations of a project Grievance Redress System how floods propagate through the city, as well as the technical skills to and a Panel of Experts. evaluate proposed mitigation measures. 42 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Chapter 4 Tools for Resilient Decision-making This Chapter explains the content for sharing The Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI), led by the risk information, and presents two examples of GFDRR in partnership with the World Bank and other devel- open source tools available to decision-makers. opment institutions, aims to reduce the impact of disasters by empowering decisions-makers with better information and open Data for Resilience the tools to support their decisions. As emphasized throughout this report, there is a critical need for The World Bank recognizes that transparency and account- systems at the city level to manage and share geospatial data and ability are essential to the development process and cen- information associated with technical disaster and climate risk stud- tral to achieving the Bank’s mission to alleviate poverty. As a ies. The OpenDRI program promotes the development of tools to knowledge institution, the World Bank’s has a mandate to share its assist in the task of sharing data and enabling resilient decision-mak- information freely and openly. Sharing data and creating open ing. Through this study, the needs and challenges associated with systems promotes transparency, accountability and ensures a operationalizing a more sustainable and effective geospatial data wide range of actors are able to participate in the challenge management and sharing system have been indenti�ed for Can Tho of building resilience. and Jakarta. The following section describes two examples of open source tools that are being developed in partnerships with various FIGuRE 20 open data for resilience cycle disaster risk management programs. GeoNode is a platform for the analysis, management, and the web-based publication of geospatial data. It brings together Better Better mature and stable open source software projects under a consis- Decisions Data tent and easy-to-use interface allowing users, with little training, to quickly and easily share data and create interactive maps. A new approach to spatial data infrastructure focuses on users and collabo- ration with simple web-based tools, allowing them to: ■■ edit metadata in the same place; Better Tools and analytics ■■ set up privacy controls to restrict access as needed; ■■ download data in a variety of formats; Chapter 3: Tools for Resilient Decision-making / 43 ■■ use data in the system to create maps; and InaSAFE is designed to work as a web-based tool on top of the GeoNode ■■ export maps to other websites or PDF. open source geospatial data management platform or a desktop system using the QuantumGIS open source software. It combines the critical An innovative example of a GeoNode leveraged in a risk assessment elements of GIS analysis with the ability to quantify impact metrics initiative is described in Box 5. that can be used for informed decision-making. Through the pilot engagement of the Building Urban Resilience Initiative, key stakeholders Indonesia Scenario Assessment for Emergencies, InaSAFE, is were exposed to beta functionality of InaSAFE and future work will a suite of tools that close the loop between sharing data and further develop applications in infrastructure investment decisions. The actionable information to support resilient decision-making. following illustrations contain the InaSAFE output with the example Since early 2011, InaSAFE has been under development through case of investment in flood management through improved dredging a partnership with the Indonesian National Disaster Management in Jakarta. First, the Flood Scenarios are presented for the Baseline and Agency (BNPB), the Australia-Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduc- Dredging Investment. The maps show the spatial extents and depths of tion (AIFDR), GFDRR Labs, and the World Bank’s Building Urban the flooding across the city. Resilience in East Asia Initiative. FIGuRE 21 InaSaFE output maps of Jakarta flood scenarios 44 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho However, purely looking at a hazard scenario does not necessarily ■■ Is the investment in the dredging going to bring maximum help a policy-maker understand or quantify the impact of the invest- bene�t? ment, nor does it answer some of the key questions decision-makers The second set of �gures display the impact of the flood scenarios in have to ask when deciding over flood mitigation measures: terms of population. In both cases the maps shows the population ■■ Are the areas of high floods in highly populated areas? affected by severe flooding, de�ned as more than 1 meter of water. FIGuRE 22 InaSaFE output maps of population impacts for Jakarta flood scenarios By comparing these two maps the relative bene�t of the dredging investment in dredging is estimated to decrease the number of peo- investment can be spatially quanti�ed. The table on page 50 then ple in need of evacuation by 33%. summarizes the population affected by different flood levels. The Chapter 3: Tools for Resilient Decision-making / 45 TaBLE 12 InaSaFE output summary for Jakarta flood scenarios invest in the underlying science to produce robust hazard and risk information that can then be integrated within a chosen decision original 2007 2007 scenario support tool. scenario with dredging people in need of 1,306,000 886,000 InaSAFE is developed through a partnership with the Indonesian evacuation (> 1m) National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB), the Australia- people in moderate Indonesia Facility for Disaster Reduction (AIFDR), Global Facility 817,000 549,000 flood (50 -100 cm) for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) Labs Team as part of people in mild flood 399,000 218,000 the Open Data for Resilience Initiative (OpenDRI), and the World (30 – 50 cm) Bank Building Urban Resilience in East Asia Initiative supported Being able to quantify the impacts of planned or proposed invest- by the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) ments as a means of risk reduction is a critical need. Having a flex- through the World Bank East Asia and Paci�c Infrastructure for ible, dynamic, and simple tool such as InaSAFE to assist in this is a Growth Trust Fund (EAAIG). step towards more resilient decisions. It is still however imperative to 46 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Box 5 Improving Disaster Risk management through Information Technology in the pacific Region Challenge: Adequate preparedness based on credible information and risk assessments can substantially mitigate the devastation of natural disasters. The key question at heart of the Paci�c Catastro- phe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) was how to ef�ciently share terabytes of risk data compiled for 15 Paci�c Island Countries with the region’s Disaster Risk Management (DRM) com- munity to improve best practices. Innovation: PCRAFI is a joint program between the Secretariat of the Paci�c Community SPC/SOPAC, the World Bank, and the Asian Development Bank, with �nancial support from the Government of Japan and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recov- ery (GFDRR). This information will be shared with the Paci�c DRM community through a customized application of the GeoNode plat- form, which enhances the management of geospatial data and pro- motes its wider dissemination. The new application will help create a dynamic online community around the risk data by piloting the inte- gration of social web features with geospatial data management. It more than 80,000 buildings, digitizing from satellite imagery the will be hosted and maintained in the SOPAC of�ce in Suva, Fiji. footprints of 450,000 buildings, and inferring from satellite imagery 2,900,000 buildings and other assets. The participating countries The PCRAFI has developed a Paci�c Risk Information System includ- are: Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Palau, ing a regional geospatial database and country-speci�c catastro- Papua New Guinea, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Samoa, Solomon phe risk models. By drawing from one of the most comprehensive Islands, Timor Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. GIS data sets ever compiled for the Paci�c, containing compre- hensive data and information on population, land use and land Impact: Exposure, hazard, and risk maps produced by the PCRAFI cover, topography, bathymetry, soils and their engineering proper- are powerful visual tools for informing DRM decisions. The Paci�c ties, assets including infrastructure and buildings, satellite images GeoNode is the �rst deployment of a web-based data-sharing plat- as well as historical catalogues and information on cyclones, earth- form in combination with a risk assessment initiative of this scale. By quakes and tsunamis, risk models and risk pro�les can be gener- enabling the development of an online community of users around ated for the participating countries. The GIS database provides full this data, the PCRAFI can better facilitate communication and edu- coverage of the entire landmass of the select countries. Compiling cation on disaster risk management and build resilience to natural the database involved intensive �eld visits to 11 countries to survey disasters in the Paci�c region. Source: Paci�c Risk Information System: http://paris.sopac.org/. Chapter 3: Tools for Resilient Decision-making / 47 Chapter 5 Findings and Recommendations This report responds to a critical demand for a drainage investments. Furthermore, the process or format of the dynamic approach to building resilience under risk assessment should be formalized by consensus between the key which the management and use of technical stakeholders so that the risk information can be systematically con- information, including geospatial climate and sidered more broadly during the decision-making process. risk data and changing infrastructure assets, is Building technical capacity within the Jakarta Province Department integrated within the government’s decision- of Public Works to assess and monitor flood hazard is part of the making process. Below is a summary of the key planned Flood Management Information Systems (FMIS) through findings in the pilot cities, followed by key prin- the Jakarta Urgent Flood Management Project (JUFMP). This project ciples and action steps. presents an excellent opportunity to link the technical stakeholders, who manage the flood information, to the budgetary and invest- ment decision stakeholders in the Province Planning Agency. Using pilot Findings a common platform for the management and sharing of geospatial risk information would facilitate the incorporation of this informa- Can Tho: While flood models, master plans and relevant geospatial tion in the decision-making process. However, critical non-technical data are available for Can Tho, the quality of this information can be challenges also exist. Further advocacy and engagement is needed signi�cantly improved. Integration into a comprehensive risk analysis to motivate the use of a risk-based methodology in budget and is needed, as data and models are currently scattered across numer- investment decisions and to promote the open exchange of infor- ous institutions and government agencies. New tools and concepts mation between government entities and the public. on the use of geospatial data can increase the use of this risk infor- mation for decision-making across agencies and stakeholders. In particular, the capacity of the Climate Change Coordination Of�ce Key principles (CCCO) to apply geospatial risk information should be strength- In the context of the underlying demographic, urbanization ened. Support from the University of Can Tho and other key local and climactic trends, city-managers, national and provincial technical institutions to both create and then share risk information policy-makers in East Asia have to make difficult decisions will be critical in the coming years. over medium and long-term investments in order increase the Jakarta: Risk information including socioeconomic cost-bene�t resilience cities and communities to the existing and future results is needed to support decisions on prioritizing components risks. In particular, in the coming decades, East Asia’s urban pol- within the Flood Mitigation Master Plan, especially for the micro icy-makers will need to balance infrastructure service provision with 48 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho trade-offs between access and quality vis-à-vis existing and incre- action Steps mental risks from climate change. Regionally and globally relevant recommendations can foster the 1. Importance of Geospatial Risk Information: Risk information, development of both the political environment and the technology when integrated within a socioeconomic cost-bene�t decision-mak- for sharing information that enables better understanding and man- ing framework, can promote resilience by quantifying the relative agement of risk. This report contributes to this debate by highlight- impact of urban investments. The provision of credible information ing the lessons learnt from exploring decision-makers’ needs in Can such as the geographic distribution of hazards and vulnerability of Tho, Vietnam, and in Jakarta, Indonesia, making the following rec- structures can be seen as a public good that forms a critical element ommendation for future steps: of urban hazard management policy.25 1. Develop technical tools to standardize risk assessment 2. Facing these challenges, decision-makers need sophisticated yet and cost-benefit analysis. This includes all components of the user-friendly instruments to be able to assess the risks and, based risk assessment approach, from hazard quanti�cation through on these analyses, make well-informed decisions on future invest- the vulnerability and impact analysis. There are existing techni- ments for urban infrastructure. A core requirement for these tools is cal tools for impact assessment such HIS-SSM, HAZUS, InaSAFE, to enable robust and sustainable management of the spatial infor- etc. mation associated with the risk-based decision-making process. 3. Sharing information for resilience: It should be noted that 2. Develop institutional tools for integrating risk assessment the �rst priority of data sharing is to promote the open and ef�- and cost-benefit analysis results in decision-making. Work- cient exchange of information between government stakeholders. ing in close collaboration with the decision-makers, this requires Smarter management of information within the city’s institutions the development of a standardized methodology and presenta- can greatly enhance decision-making capacity and therefore lead tion format for a results analysis which integrates the current bud- to greater resilience. Full openness of data also has many bene�ts; geting process as a basis. International standards and formats can however, this can be seen as an ongoing process developed through be adapted, for example the OEI ‘Overview Effects Infrastructure’ an evolving discussion between government stakeholders and their procedure from the Netherlands. constituents. Opening access to information allows a broader set of 3. Develop political awareness to adopted risk-based stakeholders, academic institutions, individual citizens, and the pri- approach to decision-making. First, clearly demonstrate vate sector, to incorporate risk reductions elements in their decision- the technical and economic robustness of the proposed risk- making. This increases the collective resilience of the city as well as based approach, and include knowledge sharing from countries facilitates the city authorities in their dual role in both creating and such as the Netherlands, the United States in order to demon- then disseminating risk information. strate successful international examples (See Annex A). Second, enhance coordination and alignment between projects and pro- grams support by national and international partners. Align- 25 Somik V. Lall, Uwe Deichmann (2009). ment with their initiatives will provide additional leverage for Chapter 5: Findings and Recommendations / 49 analytical tools and promoting better sharing of data and infor- Conclusion mation needed to carry-out robust risk assessments. This report demonstrates that risk-based methodology 4. Implement capacity building with key stakeholders. focused on building urban resilience can be implemented Depending on the success of the three actions listed above, start within a range of contexts, with risk assessments as crucial implementation of the methods with the stakeholders. Further tools for decision-makers. In order to reap the benefits of this discussion on the implementing agency must take place with and other analytical tools, this report emphasizes the need the relevant stakeholders. When adopted, a program for capac- for national, local and city level governments to invest in geo- ity building addressing core GIS skills, data management, and spatial risk information, as well as making risk information risk-based decision-making should begin. available in sustainable and user-friendly format, so that the whole community of relevant stakeholder can actively partici- pate in disaster risk reduction and prevention. 50 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho annex 1 International Experience 1 Flooding affects some 520 million people around the world every the relative risk and the distribution within each of the catchments, year, claiming the lives of about 25,000 worldwide and causing rather than a detailed, local assessment of risks at a speci�c location. global economic losses between 50 and 60 billion USD annually. The results of the National Flood Risk Assessment are used to inform Many countries are re-evaluating their approach to improve the the public about the risks, support decision-making in investment understanding of flood risks. Japan, the Netherlands, the UK and in risk management and are provided to the Association of British the USA have been exploring risk-informed approaches. This Annex Insurers (ABI) under an agreement with the Government to enable provides a brief overview of select best practices. the industry to continue to offer their services to as many people as possible who live in flood risk areas. Defra published together with There are some notable distinctions in approaches between these Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC) the Multi-Coloured Manual. four countries. The Netherlands speci�es a legislated level of pro- The Multi-Coloured Manual presents a range of techniques and data tection based on cost-bene�t analysis and loss-of life calculations; which can be used to value the economic bene�ts of flood allevia- Japan sets long-term aspiration goals for levels of protection along tion and coastal protection schemes. its major rivers, while the UK and USA use analysis of risk to inform decision-makers about the cost-effective options available. The use of flood depth-damage curves in the Multi-Coloured Man- ual is the current best practice for quanti�cation of flood damages The united Kingdom: The UK Government’s Department for Envi- when flood depths are available. However, the depth-damage infor- ronment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) bears the overall responsi- mation in the Multi-Coloured Manual is limited to information gath- bility for managing flood and coastal erosion risk. Defra funds most ered from surveys following historic flood events. Therefore, for a of the Environment Agency’s flood management activities in the UK broad scale economic appraisal covering a large area, it is likely that through the provision of an annual budget, known as a block grant. asset types not included in the Multi-Coloured Manual will be pres- The Environment Agency manages the block grant funds and allo- ent and further investigation would be required. cates funding on a project by project basis. Defra does not build Japan: The key stakeholder in flood risk management in Japan is the flood defenses. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MLIT), and in particular Defra has an ongoing program on National Flood Risk Assessment its River Bureau. The River Bureau is responsible for planning related (NaFRA) that examines the risk of flooding from rivers, sea, surface to river basins and coastal areas, and preparedness against disasters water, reservoirs and groundwater. This assessment produces maps caused by floods, storm surges and sediment slides. Recent develop- that show the probability of flooding at a national scale, illustrating ments in flood risk management in Japan include the adoption of 1 Based on Bourget, L., 2011. annex 1: International Experience / 51 the “National Strategy for Risk Management of Large-Scale Flood and standards went into effect in 1983. In the Water Resources Devel- Disaster�. In addition to the traditional ‘hard’ structural measures, opment Act of 2007 Congress instructed the Secretary of the Army this strategy introduces a series of new measures, such as simulation to develop a new Principles and Guidelines for the U.S. Army Corps of socioeconomic impact and target setting, and improved coopera- of Engineers (section 2031). While the 1983 standards focused pri- tion and communication with the public. marily on economic development, the new approach envisions that Federal investments in water resources as a whole should strive to In Japan, the Ministry of Construction (MOC) issues an economic maximize public bene�ts, including economic, environmental, and damage estimate for each flood. The estimate is carried out based on social goals, with appropriate consideration of costs. Furthermore, a standard procedure described in the ‘Outline of River Improvement evaluation of investments should consider both monetary and non- Economic Research Investigation’ (MOC, 1996). The flood damage monetary effects, and allow for the consideration of both quanti�ed estimation method in Japan has been developed in the 1950s to and unquanti�ed effects, to justify and select a project. Trade-offs facilitate the economic appraisal of flood control measures. In Japa- among potential investments would need to be accessed and com- nese practice, the following categories are considered in damage municated. assessment: New Orleans is the �rst city in the U.S. to have risk and reliabil- ■■ General assets, including residential and commercial struc- ity maps that provide a comprehensive system assessment of the tures and content, farmhouses and �sherman houses struc- area’s flooding risk. As part of the Corps’ goal of communicating ture and content damage. risk and assisting the public with risk-informed decision-making, in ■■ Damage to crops. 2007 the Corps of Engineers released risk maps showing the depth of flooding that could be experienced after it completed improve- ■■ Public infrastructure, which include rivers, streets, roads, ments bringing the Hurricane Protection System in New Orleans to railways, bridges, infrastructure of farms, telecommunica- a 1% chance of overtopping from surge and waves produced by a tions and power supply. variety of hurricanes. Over the years, a number of flood damage surveys have been carried The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has devel- out and economic damages have been established. oped a set of strategies, products, and services to address mapping, assessment, and planning needs related to flood risk study prioritiza- united States: The US Army Corps of Engineers plans, constructs, tion, elevation data acquisition, a watershed-based study approach, operates, maintains and manages a signi�cant portion of the US’s engineering and mapping methods, flood risk assessment, miti- water resources infrastructure. The evaluation of proposed water gation planning support, and risk communications. On a national resource development investments, including flood risk planning scale, FEMA’s flood insurance rate maps, which show the 1% annual and risk reduction investment actions by Federal agencies is embed- chance flood in approximately 20,000 communities, have been avail- ded in the Principles and Guidelines for Water and Land Related able for decades, helping to increase awareness of flood hazards as Resources Implementation Studies (P&G). The �rst set of “Principles part of the National Flood Insurance Program. and Standards� was issued in September 1973, the ruling principles 52 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Flood Risk Assessments are developed using HAZUS, a nationally applicable, standardized methodology containing models for esti- mating potential losses from earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. Hazus uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) technology to estimate physical, economic, and social impacts of disasters. Hazus graphically illustrates the limits of identi�ed high-risk locations due to earthquake, hurricane, and floods. Users can then visualize the spatial relationships between populations and other more perma- nently �xed geographic assets or resources for the speci�c hazard being modeled. Potential loss estimates analyzed in Hazus include: ■■ physical damage to residential and commercial buildings, schools, critical facilities, and infrastructure; ■■ economic loss, including lost jobs, business interruptions, repair and reconstruction costs; and ■■ social impacts, including estimates of shelter requirements, displaced households, and population exposed to scenario floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes. annex 1: International Experience / 53 annex 2 Data Collection Guidelines Terms of Spatial Data Delivery and Sharing: Promoting data media/method of transfer: All data sets must be transferred on accessibility is an important component of any technical disaster or permanent media such as a CD/DVD disk. Very large data sets, too climate risk project. To ensure sustainability of project results, all data large for CDs and DVDs, may be provided on a hard drive or solid- collected and created by project activities must be preserved, consol- state drive, as agreed by the key stakeholders. idated and transferred to the key stakeholders upon project comple- metadata: Detailed documentation needs to be provided for each tion, in a well-know or standard electronic format. Speci�cally the data set. This metadata must include description, source, contact, following terms apply: date, accuracy, and any use restrictions. A description of attributes Licensing: All data procured and developed for this project is done needs to be provided for vector and tabular data sets. Spatial data on behalf of the key stakeholders and therefore all licensing agree- must include details of projection. There are available ISO standards ments must be made similarly. commonly used by World Bank projects to guide the development of metadata. Vector data: Geospatial vector data must be converted into a stan- dard OGC format or well-known format. This list includes, but is Derived data: All derived data generated for this project belongs not limited to, shape �le, KML, GML, WKT. Additional formats may to the key stakeholders and must be transferred under these terms. be used with approval. All �les must include projection parameters. In addition to the above, the spatial data should be made available Raster data: Geospatial raster data must be converted into a stan- on a web-based data management and mapping platform. This plat- dard OGC or well-known format. This list includes, but is not limited form will ensure that spatial data is publicly accessible in multiple to, geoTiff, JPEG, JPEG2000, ERDAS img, ArcInfo ASCII or Binary formats. Speci�cally this platform must meet the following require- grid, MrSid. Additional formats may be used with approval. All �les ments: must include projection parameters. ■■ web based and accessible over the Internet; Tabular data: Tabular data must be converted into a readily acces- sible or well-known format. This list includes, but is not limited to, ■■ allow uploading raster and vector data, along with assign- CSV, tab delimited text �le, or spreadsheet. Additional formats may ing rendering and classi�cations; be used with approval. ■■ enforce metadata to be entered for each data set uploaded; 54 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho ■■ allow de�nition of users and assignment of access levels to ■■ 1 GB software disk usage; individual layers and maps as required; ■■ Additional disk space for any data hosted with GeoNode ■■ allow viewing and interrogating spatial data, along with and tiles cached with GeoWebCache. For spatial data, associated metadata; cached tiles, and “scratch space� useful for administration, a decent baseline size for GeoNode deployments is 100GB; ■■ allow downloading spatial data in multiple vector and raster and formats, including OGC web services; and ■■ 64-bit hardware recommended. ■■ allow map compositions to be made combining multiple layers. IT-related capacity within the organizations should include: These requirements are met by the GeoNode open source software, ■■ experience with web development in Python/Django; more information can be found in Chapter 4 or at http://geonode. org. ■■ experience with geospatial programming such as GeoServer/ GeoTools, GeoNetwork; Capacity requirements for hosting GeoNode ■■ experience with OpenLayers/GeoExt, PostGIS; and The GeoNode website gives the following hardware requirements ■■ understanding of Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) stan- for the deployment of a GeoNode: dards: Web Feature Service (WFS), Web Coverage Services (WCS), Web Map Services (WMS) and Web Processing Ser- ■■ 6GB of RAM, including swap space; vices (WPS). ■■ 2.2GHz processor. (Additional processing power may be required for multiple concurrent styling renderings); annex 2: Data Collection Guidelines / 55 References European Space Agency and World Bank (2011) EOWorld. Earth Observation support to World Bank projects. Progress report. November. World Bank (2011) Building Urban Resilience. Integrating Risk Infor- Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (2011) Risk mation into Investment Decisions. Technical background documents Assessment and Data. Website link. for pilot studies: GTZ (2009) Climate Change Information for Effective Adaptation A ■■ Overview of past hazard and risk assessment studies for Practitioner‘s Manual. Download pdf. pilot Cities Can Tho and Jakarta. Map Source © 2011 OpenStreetMap. ■■ Catalogue of existing data sets for pilot Cities Can Tho and Ruijgrok, E.C.M, R. Brouwer, H. Verbruggen (2004). Waardering van Jakarta. Natuur, Water en Bodem in Maatschappelijke Kosten Baten Anal- ■■ Key stakeholders risk assessment needs for Can Tho. yses. Een handreiking ter aanvulling op de leidraad OEI. Ministe- rie van Landbouw, Natuur en Voedselkwaliteit, in samenwerking ■■ Key stakeholders risk assessment needs for Jakarta. met de ministeries van Verkeer en Waterstaat, Economische Zaken, Financiën en VROM. ■■ Risk assessment focused on design review of planned urban investment in Can Tho. IFRC (2010) World Disaster Report. Download pdf. Paci�c Risk Information Systems (PacRIS), Website: http://paris. ■■ Design risk assessment for micro drainage investments in sopac.org/. Jakarta. Principal Agglomerations of the World; Website: http://www.city- ■■ Effective Use of Geospatial data for Can Tho and Jakarta. population.de/world/Agglomerations.html Key references Somik V. Lall, Uwe Deichmann (2009) ‘Density and Disasters, Eco- Ahas Jha, Henrike, Brecht (2011) ‘Building Urban Resilience in East nomics of Urban Hazard Risk’, Policy Research Working Paper 5161, Asia’ An Eye on East Asia and Paci�c; Issue 8. Download pdf. World Bank. Bourget, L., J. van Alphen, C. Elliot, K. Fujita, D. 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Lower Mekong Basin. 6th Annual Mekong Flood Forum, 27-28 May World Bank (2011) Climate resilient development in Vietnam: Stra- 2008, Phnom Penh, Cambodia. tegic directions for the World Bank. World Bank Vietnam. Download World Bank (2012) Cities and Flooding: A Guide to Integrated Urban pdf. Flood Risk Management for the 21 Century. Website: http://www. World Bank, Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery, gfdrr.org/urbanfloods. Development Workshop France (DWF) (2011) Survey in Can Tho Per- World Bank (2011). Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban ception of risks. Download pdf. Poor Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World. Cities Building World Bank and The People’s Committee Of Can Tho City (2009) An Resilience for a Changing World. Download pdf. Initial Local Resilience Action Plan for Can Tho City. World Bank (2010) Climate Risks and Adaptation in Asian Coastal Jakarta Megacities - a Synthesis report. Download pdf. ESA/Altamira (2012) for the World Bank: EO Information Services Can Tho in support of Analysis of Land Subsidence in the Agglomeration of Can Tho City People’s Committee, Steering committee for climate Jakarta. change works (2010) Can Tho City Climate Change Resilience Plan, Deltares, Urban Solutions, Witteveen en Bos, Triple-A Team, Pusair PMD-158. and ITB, PENGAMANAN PANTAI JAKARTA (DRAFT 31 Januari 2011) Can Tho University / People’s Committee Can Tho (2009) Climate Strategi Pengamanan Pantai Jakarta / Jakarta Coastal Defence Strat- change impacts and vulnerability assessment for Can Tho City. egy (JCDS) Climate Change Steering Committee and DONRE (2010) “Climate HKV consultants and WL Delft Hydraulics (2007) Flood 2007: Flood change resilience Action Plan of Can Tho City 2010 – 2015�. Extent and Bottleneck Analysis, December. ESA/Eurosense for World Bank (2012) EO Information Services in Pilot study team for JBIC (2007); ALMEC Corporation, Earth System support of Multi-Hazard Vulnerability Assessment in Ho Chi Minh Science Co, LTD; Pacet Corporation, Pilot study for Project Formation (Vietnam). for Integrated Urban Disaster Management Project in Jakarta Metro- politan Area, May 2007 Ky Quang Vinh, Climate Change Coordination Of�ce (2011) “Build- ing Can Tho Cty’s climate change respond plan�. Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Daerah (RPJMD): Regional Medium Term Development Plan 2007 – 2012 References / 57 - Rencana Kerja Pemerintah Daerah (RKPD). Regional Government PT. Studio Cilaki Empat Lima, Identi�kasi kerentanan wilayah ter- Annual Work Program and Budget 2011 hadap potensi dampak perubahan iklim dalam pengembangan wilayah, 2010. - Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Daerah (APBD): Annual regional budget 2011 Witteveen+Bos, Royal Haskoning, WL Delft Hydraulics, HKV Lijn in Water, Euroconsult Mott MacDonald, DHV - Dutch assistance with - Renstra SKPD - Dinas PU: Strategic plan of Public Work agency DKI non-structural measures Jakarta Flood Management – Main Report, - Renstra PU Cipta Karya: Strategic plan of PU Cipta Karya December 2007. - Renstra Pola Balai Wilayah Sungai: Strategic plan Balai Besar Witteveen+Bos, Royal Haskoning, WL Delft Hydraulics, HKV Lijn in - Law on National Development Planning “Undang-undang no. 25 Water, Euroconsult Mott MacDonald, DHV - Dutch assistance with tahun 2004 tentang Sistem Perencanaan Pembangunan Nasional non-structural measures Jakarta Flood Management - Flood Hazard (SPPN)�. Mapping Overview 10 December 2007 (page 3-20). - Lembar Posisi 2011, Eurocharm, Kamar Dagang Dan Indistri Eropa Witteveen + Bos Indonesia, Tsunami Evaluation Study for P T. Kapuk Di Indonesia Naga Indah, INA407-8/sumt2/001, July 2010. - Public Private Partnerships 2011, Ministry of National Develop- World Bank (2006) Drainage Management for Jakarta: Strategic ment Planning/ National Development Planning Agency Action Program Development (DKI 3-9), Western Java Environmen- tal Management Project (WJEMP), IBRD Loan 4612-IND/IDA Credit - Blue Book - Daftar Rencana Pinjaman / Hibah Luar Negeri - Jangka 3519-IND. Menengah (DRPHLN-JM). List of Medium-Term Planned External Loans and Grants (DRPHLN-JM) 2011-2014 World Bank (2011) ‘Jakarta Case Study’ in Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor Cities Building Resilience for a Changing - Green Book - Daftar Rencana Prioritas Pinjaman / Hibah Luar Neg- World. Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World. Download eri - Jangka Menengah (DRPPHLN). List of Planned Priority External pdf. Loans and Grants (DRPPHLN) 2011. S3I team, Quick situ-situ safety inspection manual (2009) Final draft, Deltares, DHV, HKV, MLD, Royal Haskoning, Witteveen & Bos, 17July. Staf ahli Menteri Negara Bidang Mitigasi dan Penanggulangan Bencana, Telaah Peran Serta Masyarakat dalam Penanggulangan Bencana dan Pengarusutamaan Penanggulangan Bencana dalam Perencanaan Pembangunan), 2009 58 / Tools for Building Urban Resilience: Integrating Risk Information into Investment Decisions: Pilot Cities Report – Jakarta and Can Tho Building Urban Resilience M a n a g i n g T h e R i s k s o f D i s a s T e R s i n e a s T a s i a a n D T h e Pa C i f i C Disaster Risk management Team East asia and pacific Infrastructure unit (EaSIN) The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1 202 458 7382 E-mail: eapdrm@worldbank.org Internet: www.worldbank.org/eapdisasters