Document of The World Bank Report No: ICR00002770 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (TF093972, P116318) ON A NILE BASIN TRUST FUND GRANT IN THE AMOUNT OF US$ 17.2 MILLION TO THE NILE BASIN INITIATIVE FOR THE SHARED VISION PROGRAM WATER RESOURCES PLANNING & MANAGEMENT PROJECT (Phase 2) June 28, 2013 AFTN2 AFCRI Africa Region CURRENCY Currency Unit = US$ FISCAL YEAR 1 January – 31 December ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AfDB African Development Bank NileCOM Council of Ministers of Water BMZ German Federal Ministry for Affairs of the Nile Basin States Economic Cooperation and NileSEC Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat Development NileTAC Nile Basin Initiative Technical CIWA Cooperation in International Advisory Committee Waters in Africa PAD Project Appraisal Document DSS Decision Support System PDO Project Development Objective ENPM Eastern Nile Planning Model PMU Project Management Unit ENTRO Eastern Nile Technical Regional PSC Project Steering Committee Office RATP Regional Agricultural Trade GIS Geographical Information Project System SAP Subsidiary Action Program ICR Implementation Completion SVP Shared Vision Program Report WRM/D Water Resources ISP Institutional Strengthening Management/Development Project UNOPS United Nations Office for NBI Nile Basin Initiative Project Services NBTF Nile Basin Trust Fund WB World Bank NCORE Nile Cooperation for Results WRPMP Water Resources Planning and project Management Project NELSAP-CU Nile Equatorial Lakes Region Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit Vice President: Makhtar Diop Country Director: Colin Bruce Sector Manager: Jonathan Kamkwalala Project Team Leader: Clare Barrington ICR Team Leader: Clare Barrington AFRICA Water Resources Planning & Management Project (Phase 2) CONTENTS Data Sheet A. Basic Information B. Key Dates C. Ratings Summary D. Sector and Theme Codes E. Bank Staff F. Results Framework Analysis G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs H. Restructuring I. Disbursement Graph 0. Preface ........................................................................................................................ 1 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design ............................................... 9 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes ............................................ 16 3. Assessment of Outcomes .......................................................................................... 21 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome......................................................... 30 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance ..................................................... 31 6. Lessons Learned ....................................................................................................... 32 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Borrower/Implementing Agencies/Partners .......... 36 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing Annex 2. Outputs by Component Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis Annex 4. Bank Lending and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results Annex 7. Summary of Borrower's ICR and/or Comments on Draft ICR Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents MAP A. Basic Information SVP-Additional Grant Financing for the Water Country: Africa Project Name: Resources Planning and Management Project - Phase II Project ID: P116318 L/C/TF Number(s): TF-93972 ICR Date: 06/28/2013 ICR Type: Core ICR NILE BASIN Lending Instrument: TAL Grantee: INITIATIVE Original Total USD 11.20M Disbursed Amount: USD 17.22M Commitment: Revised Amount: USD 17.22M Environmental Category: C Implementing Agencies: Nile Basin Initiative Cofinanciers and Other External Partners: B. Key Dates Revised / Actual Process Date Process Original Date Date(s) Concept Review: 03/12/2009 Effectiveness: 03/30/2009 03/30/2009 Appraisal: 03/19/2009 Restructuring(s): Approval: 03/20/2009 Mid-term Review: 09/15/2011 Closing: 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 C. Ratings Summary C.1 Performance Rating by ICR Outcomes: Satisfactory Risk to Development Outcome: Substantial Bank Performance: Satisfactory Grantee Performance: Satisfactory C.2 Detailed Ratings of Bank and Borrower Performance (by ICR) Bank Ratings Borrower Ratings Quality at Entry: Satisfactory Government: Moderately Satisfactory Implementing Quality of Supervision: Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory Agency/Agencies: Overall Bank Overall Borrower Satisfactory Satisfactory Performance: Performance: i C.3 Quality at Entry and Implementation Performance Indicators Implementation QAG Assessments Indicators Rating Performance (if any) Potential Problem Project Quality at Entry No None at any time (Yes/No): (QEA): Problem Project at any Quality of No None time (Yes/No): Supervision (QSA): DO rating before Satisfactory Closing/Inactive status: D. Sector and Theme Codes Original Actual Sector Code (as % of total Bank financing) Public administration- Water, sanitation and flood 100 100 protection Theme Code (as % of total Bank financing) Environmental policies and institutions 5 5 Water resource management 95 95 E. Bank Staff Positions At ICR At Approval Vice President: Makhtar Diop Obiageli Katryn Ezekwesili Country Director: Colin Bruce Inger Andersen Sector Manager: Jonathan S. Kamkwalala Ashok K. Subramanian Project Team Leader: Clare Georgina Barrington John Bryant Collier ICR Team Leader: Clare Georgina Barrington ICR Primary Author: Daryl Fields Martha Jarosewich-Holder F. Results Framework Analysis Project Development Objectives (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the NBI SVP Water Resources Planning and Management (WRPM) project is to enhance analytical capacity from a basin-wide perspective to support the development, management, and protection of Nile Basin water resources in an equitable, optimal, integrated, and sustainable manner. ii Revised Project Development Objectives (as approved by original approving authority) n/a (a) PDO Indicator(s) Original Target Formally Actual Value Values (from Revised Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value approval Target Completion or documents) Values Target Years Level of effectiveness of DSS operation in 3 NBI Centres and in 9 NBI member Indicator 1 : countries (rated as high, medium, low based on standard criteria assessed periodically by project team). WRPM Phase 1 Level of completed with regional Assessed as high in effectiveness is Value and national DSS units 3 NBI Centres, high high in 3 NBI quantitative or established and in 5 countries, Centres, high in 4 Qualitative) undertaking training on medium in 2 countries, medium DSS. Low level of countries in 2 countries effectiveness throughout. Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) (b) Intermediate Outcome Indicator(s) Original Target Actual Value Formally Values (from Achieved at Indicator Baseline Value Revised approval Completion or Target Values documents) Target Years Indicator 1 : Number of project cases on which the Nile DSS is successfully applied. 18 national project cases prepared, 5 Value 16 national requiring additional (quantitative 0 6 regional guidance. or Qualitative) 7 regional project cases prepared. Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) Indicator 2 : Percent of data required for DSS use received by WRPM project from countries. Value (quantitative 30% 70% 85% data received. or Qualitative) Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Exceeded target achievement) iii Indicator 3 : Status of Interim Procedures for Data Sharing and Operational Guidelines Countries are Interim Procedures moving towards Value were approved by Interim Procedures for the (quantitative NileCOM and are Data Sharing approved operationalization or Qualitative) in use to gain data of the interim needed for DSS. procedure Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) Percent of arrangements in place and operational at regional, sub-regional, and Indicator 4 : national levels. Nile-SEC: 100% Nile-SEC: 100% ENTRO: 100% Value ENTRO: 100% NELSAP-CU: (quantitative 0% NELSAP-CU: 100% or Qualitative) 100% Countries: 75% (7 Countries: 60% out of 9 with good arrangements). Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) Indicator 5 : % completion of tasks within annual work plan Value Jan-Dec 2012 work (quantitative 70% 95% plan was 93 % or Qualitative) completed. Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) Indicator 6 : % execution of annual budget Value Jan-Dec 2012 (quantitative 70% 90% budget was 98% or Qualitative) spent. Date achieved 03/30/2009 12/31/2012 12/31/2012 Comments (incl. % Fully achieved achievement) G. Ratings of Project Performance in ISRs Actual Date ISR No. DO IP Disbursements Archived (USD millions) 1 11/06/2009 Satisfactory Satisfactory 3.54 2 06/02/2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 5.68 iv 3 12/11/2010 Satisfactory Satisfactory 8.01 4 12/18/2011 Satisfactory Satisfactory 13.27 5 06/04/2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 15.37 6 01/29/2013 Highly Satisfactory Highly Satisfactory 16.54 H. Restructuring (if any) Not Applicable I. Disbursement Profile v 0. Preface: Coordinated Programmatic Support for the Nile 0.1. Introduction The project evaluated in this Implementation Completion and Results report (ICR) is one of twenty-nine projects funded by the Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), which are all part of a much larger programmatic approach to support Nile cooperation. Because of the complementary and strategic nature of the projects, it would be incomplete to either evaluate the individual projects in isolation of the overall programmatic framework or fail to look at the role each NBTF project played in building Nile cooperation. This preface provides an overview of the coordinated partner support to the Nile countries through and in coordination with the NBTF, to provide background and context for the individual project ICR that follows. The NBTF was created to support a trend of increasing cooperation in the Nile region. In 1995, the Nile governments established the Nile Council of Ministers of Water Resources (Nile-COM) and designed the Nile River Basin Action Plan, identifying 22 technical assistance projects which aimed to address economic development and equitable use of the Nile waters. In 1999, the Nile-COM adopted a long-term Shared Vision: to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through equitable utilization of and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. More specifically, Nile Ministers adopted policy guidelines, “to develop the water resources of the Nile Basin in a sustainable and equitable way to ensure prosperity, security and peace for all its people; to ensure efficient water management and the optimal use of the resources; to ensure cooperation and joint action between the Nile Basin countries; to target poverty eradication and promote economic integration; and to ensure that the program results in a move from planning to action.� In order to advance these policy guidelines, the Nile-COM Shared Vision endorsed cooperation built around a Strategic Action Program with two complementary concepts: the need to enable a Shared common basis to achieve the Shared Vision for the Nile Basin Vision and the need to advance projects that benefited “the people and Program particularly the poor and disadvantaged in the Nile Basin.� As Subsidiary a result, Nile-COM endorsed two programs: the Shared Vision Action Program (SVP) and the Subsidiary Action Program (see Figure Program 1). First, the Shared Vision Program was designed to build Action on the Ground trust, confidence, and an enabling environment for the sustainable and equitable use of the Nile resources among Figure 1: Complementary Design of water professionals and the public. Second, as articulated by Early Nile Programs Nile-COM, “a shared vision can only be legitimized by action on the ground,� the Subsidiary Action Program (SAP), one for the Eastern Nile and one for the Equatorial Lakes, which focused on investment projects that addressed agricultural needs, environmental risks, energy, and river management. To implement these programs, the following year the Nile-COM ministers agreed to establish the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) as a transitional institutional arrangement. At establishment, NBI’s member states were Burundi, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda with Eritrea holding observer status. Membership is now ten countries with South Sudan joining in July 2012. 1 In 2001, the Nile Basin governments and international development partners convened for the International Consortium for Cooperation on the Nile (ICCON) in Geneva to discuss the Nile Shared Vision and the proposed programs, pledging US$140 million for their implementation. Based on the interest expressed by the Nile-COM and partners at ICCON, a multi-donor funding mechanism, the Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF), was established at the World Bank in 2003 with a consortium of ten international donors1 to support the countries in their pursuit of the Shared Vision. Several donors also supported the NBI directly in coordination with the NBTF. With this considerable partnership, overall financial support to NBI has far exceeded the ICCON pledges. Over the ten years, the NBTF supported twenty- eight completed NBI projects as part of the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs, and an Institutional Strengthening Project. The last set of projects closed at the end of 2012 (Table 1). To enable full disbursement of NBTF funds in support of NBI, partners to the NBTF agreed a two year extension of the fund until June 2015. An additional project, the Nile Eastern Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) Project, was Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) therefore approved in December 2012. The Addis Ababa NCORE project is co-financed by the new Nile Basin Secretariat Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (Nile-SEC) Entebbe (CIWA) Trust Fund managed by the World Bank. Nile Equatorial Lakes Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU) Kigali 0.2. NBTF Achievements to Date Figure 2: NBI Centers The NBTF supported the Nile countries to establish the NBI as a transitional institutional mechanism. The NBI is the only regional water organization for all Nile Basin countries, aiming to operate as a catalyst for integrated growth, investment and risk management to achieve the Shared Vision. To carry out the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs, the three NBI Centers were formed; the NBI Secretariat in Entebbe, Uganda and two Subsidiary Action Program offices, the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program – Coordination Unit in Kigali, Rwanda (Figure 2). The governance structure is aligned with the basin-wide/sub-basin structure of the Nile Basin Initiative, (Figure 3). A Nile Council of Ministers and a Technical Advisory Committee (Nile- TAC) guides the basin-wide work of the NBI Secretariat (Nile-SEC). At the level of the Eastern Nile sub-basin, an Eastern Nile Council of Ministers (EN-COM) and an Eastern Nile Strategic 1 Contributors to the NBTF are: Canada, Denmark, European Commission, Finland, France, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, United Kingdom and the World Bank. Partners providing bilateral financing include Germany, Sweden, and the African Development Bank. The United Nations Development Program and the United States are active in the development partnership and support efforts to increase Nile cooperation outside but in coordination with the NBTF partnership. 2 Action Program Technical Committee (ENSAPT) provide governance oversight. In the Nile Equatorial Lakes sub-basin, the Nile Equatorial Lakes Council of Ministers (NEL-COM) and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Technical Advisory Committee (NEL-TAC) provide governance services. Through the ten projects under the Shared Vision Program (SVP), the NBI has improved collaboration within the Basin. The US$87 million Shared Vision Program was designed to build trust, strengthen capacity, and advance the enabling environment for investment in the Nile Basin. The program created networks and partnerships that brought people together across the Basin countries in various water-related sectors. According to a 2008 opinion poll, 2the program created measurably greater levels of trust among such stakeholder categories as lawyers, media professionals and women leaders. Through work on joint projects on a range of critical issues, the SVP advanced a shared understanding of the need for regional engagement between the countries, including in water resource management, environment, wetlands, and regional power trade. The projects yielded a more organized knowledge base, a Decision Support System (DSS) and other tools to better understand, model and analyze the basin, an inventory of wetlands, plans for watershed management and regional power generation and transmission, studies of agricultural productivity and opportunities for water savings, and trained over 2,000 professionals. Figure 3: NBI Governance Structure The Shared Vision Program provided platforms to bring country officials together at the policy and the technical level. Based on these platforms, technical cooperation was strengthened thereby helping basin-wide processes and practices to be shared and consolidated. By establishing and managing a shared institution, and by collaborating on development projects and risk-management strategies, the Nile Basin countries established common principles, without which long-term cooperation would be difficult. Various project teams are in continuing contact across countries, through other NBI projects, or other initiatives. The NBI is also establishing an integrated policy environment, including a suite of policies called the Nile Basin Sustainability Framework. 2 “Opinion Research with Key Stakeholders� conducted by the NBI, 2008. For more information, see World Bank report number “ICR 1493 – AFR,� Annex 3. 3 The NBI centers have improved the collation, analysis, and access to information relating to the Nile basin, including a procedures and norms for date and information sharing and exchange. The NBI has helped foster greater exchange not only on the river itself but on energy, agriculture and trade opportunities. NBI is a platform that can be used as a mechanism to notify each other of certain planned development projects using Nile waters. Given its programmatic nature, the Shared Vision Program was reviewed by the World Bank in a Programmatic Implementation Completion and Results Report in June 20103. The report reviewed the achievements of the seven thematic projects as well as the umbrella coordination project (Table 1). The Programmatic ICR found that the Outcomes, Bank performance and Grantee Performance were all moderately satisfactory, with the risk to development outcomes being rated as substantial. While the outputs of many of the SVP projects were mainstreamed into other on-going initiatives, two SVP projects implemented second phases; the Regional Power Trade Project which produced a Comprehensive Basin-wide Study of Power Development Options and Trade Opportunities: Proposed Development Options, Strategies and Investment Arrangements; and the Water Resources Planning and Management Project extended the closing date until December 31, 2012 to complete the Nile Basin Decision Support System - this second phase of support has been reviewed in a new ICR.4 The Subsidiary Action Program helped identify and prepare investments of transboundary significance to improve the livelihoods of the basin’s neediest populations and promote sustainable growth through improved watershed management, flood preparedness, agricultural improvement, power generation, and transmission. It also helped facilitate agreement among countries to move some investments forward – such as the regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric Project that is expected to make a significant contribution to access to power in Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. The NBI facilitated US$919 million of investment projects currently under implementation, with a further US$1.584 billion under preparation (Table 2). In addition, Subsidiary Action Program has helped the countries to consolidate their knowledge of the sub-basins and develop new tools and applications to help better identify and plan investments of regional significance. ENTRO and NELSAP-CU have provided studies and analysis to their member governments to improve planning and implementation of regional sustainable development projects. The NBI issues regional flood bulletins with hydrological forecasts for the Eastern Nile to assist national, regional and community authorities in predicting floods. University networks, especially in the Eastern Nile, have been strengthened through collaborative studies, internship programs, and workshops. 3 World Bank report number “ICR 1493 – AFR� 4 World Bank report number “ICR00002770� 4 Implementation Completion and Results reports have been prepared for two Subsidiary Action Program Projects that closed in December, 2012, including the Regional Agricultural Trade and Productivity Project – Phase II5, and the Eastern Nile Planning Model Project.6 The results of these individual projects can be found in the individual ICRs. The Institutional Strengthening Project (ISP) aimed to support the Nile Basin Initiative to strengthening the foundation for institutional sustainability, to enhance capacity, Figure 4: NBI Strategic Plan 2013-2017 to harmonize corporate management, as well as to consolidate the gains of the SVP and SAPs. The project started in 2008 and closed in December 2012. Through ISP, the NBI clarified its core functions developed a five year Strategic Plan and a Financing Strategy to advance its sustainability. As a result of this work, the Nile governments committed to incrementally increase their direct financial contributions to the NBI to cover the core costs of the institution by 2017 (FY2018). The NBI has also developed a suite of Strategic Plans for each Center and a consolidated concept note of projects for 2013 – 2017 which was presented to development partners in November 2011. The overarching Strategic Plan, (Figure 4) shows how the NBI’s current work expands its original programmatic structure including the Shared Vision and Subsidiary Action Programs. As part of implementing the new Strategic Plan and building on other projects, the NBI prepared the Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) Project. This project is supporting NBI activities in its three core functions of facilitating cooperation, water resource management, and water resource development. The support provided through the ISP enabled results to be achieved across the NBI, including the twenty-one other SVP and SAP projects that were undertaken by the NBI during ISP implementation, as well as the subsequent work that was enabled by the ISP project. While a stand-alone ICR for the ISP project has been produced7, the breadth of the ISP results can only truly be assessed when looking at the successes and lessons of the other NBI efforts as well. 5 World Bank report number -- “ICR00002447� 6 World Bank report number -- “ICR00002631� 7 World Bank report number -- “ICR00002573� 5 Table 1. Nile Basin Trust Fund Project Portfolio Grant Grant Agreement Grant Project Agreement Signing Amount1 Closing Date Date Shared Vision Program SVP: Applied Training Project 12-Feb-04 31-Dec-09 14.13 SVP: Confidence Building and Stakeholder Involvement Project 17-Mar-04 31-Dec-09 11.35 SVP: Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production 16-Mar-05 30-Jun-09 4.12 SVP: Nile Tranboundary Environmental Action Project 22-Apr-03 31-Dec-09 8.99 SVP: Regional Power Trade Project 1-Nov-04 30-Jun-09 5.76 SVP: Additional Grant Financing Regional Power Trade Project - II 16-Sep-09 31-Dec-11 4.56 SVP: Socioeconomic Development and Benefit Sharing Project 3-Feb-05 30-Jun-09 3.65 SVP: Water Resources Planning and Management Project 15-Oct-04 30-Apr-09 6.79 SVP: Additional Grant Financing Water Res. Planning&Mgmt - II 31-Mar-09 31-Dec-12 17.22 SVP: Shared Vision Program Coordination Project 22-Apr-03 31-Dec-08 9.94 Shared Vision Program (subtotal) 86.51 Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) NBTF - ENSAP: Eastern Nile Watershed Management Project 8-Nov-04 30-Jun-08 2.50 ENTRO Grant for launching the Joint Multipurpose Program 28-Sep-05 31-May-09 1.14 NBTF Grant for Institutional Strengthening of the Eastern Nile 12-Oct-06 31-Dec-08 2.58 Regional Technical Office (ENTRO) EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning Project - Phase 1 19-Jun-07 31-Dec-10 3.96 EN Planning Model 9-Sep-09 31-Dec-12 6.50 EN Joint Multipurpose Program Identification Phase (JMP1) 9-Sep-09 31-Dec-12 7.00 Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Program (ENSAP) (sub-total) 23.68 Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) NELSAP: Coordination Unit Project 22-Apr-03 30-Jun-06 0.67 NELSAP: NELSAP CU Institutional Strengthening and Scaling Up 30-Jun-06 31-Dec-08 1.87 NELSAP: Regional Rusumo Falls Hydroelectric and Multipurpose 24-Oct-06 31-Oct-12 7.72 Project Preparation Grant NELSAP: Agriculture and Trade 29-Apr-08 30-Sep-09 0.60 NELSAP: Additional Grant Financing Agriculture&Trade-II 30-Nov-10 31-Dec-12 7.00 NELSAP: Sio-Malaba-Malakasi RBM 24-Sep-09 31-Dec-12 2.15 NELSAP: Mara RBM 24-Sep-09 31-Dec-12 2.15 NELSAP: Kagera RBM 17-Sep-09 31-Dec-12 3.77 NELSAP: Power Program 24-Apr-10 31-Dec-12 3.80 NELSAP: Coordinated Water Resources Development Program 4-Feb-10 31-Dec-12 4.90 Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program (NELSAP) (sub-total) 34.63 Cross-Cutting NBI Institutional Strengthening Project 21-Oct-08 31-Dec-12 24.02 NBI: Nile Basin Secretariat Support 25-Jan-05 30-Jun-05 .20 NCORE: Nile Cooperation for Results 26-Dec-12 31-Dec-14 13.80 Cross-cutting (subtotal) 38.02 Total - NBTF Grants 182.84 1 Reflects amount granted to NBI for project purposes from NBTF. Actual amount disbursed by project is lower, in some cases. 6 Table 2. Investments resulting from NBI projects that are currently (I) Under Implementation, (II) Under Preparation or (III) Pre-Investment/Identification I. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION Total Cost Target Start of (Million Secured Source(s) of Secured Project Title Implementation US$) Financing Financing (Calendar Year) (est.) A. NBI Project Portfolio NEL Regional Transmission Interconnection Projects AfDB, JICA, KFW, 403 350 2013 (agreed regionally, prepared regionally and nationally, implemented nationally) Netherlands Watershed management Projects (Reg., Egypt, Sudan; excluding US$40 million Ethiopia - Tana Beles) (agreed and 52 35.4 GEF, Finland, Egypt, Sudan 2009 prepared regionally, implemented nationally) Lakes Edward and Albert Fisheries Project (Uganda-DRC) 170 40 AfDB 2011 Ethiopia Tana-Beles Integrated Water Resources Development (implemented IDA, Finland, Ethiopia, nationally, with some preparation by ENTRO) 70 70 2008 Communities Ethiopia Irrigation & Drainage 110 110 IDA, Ethiopia 2007 (agreed regionally, prepared and implemented nationally) Ethiopia-Sudan Interconnection IDA (for Ethiopia), Sudan, (agreed regionally, prepared and implemented nationally with technical assistance from 70 70 2008 Ethiopia NBI) EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning-Phase 1 4 4 NBTF, EN countries 2007 (agreed and prepared regionally, implemented regionally and nationally) TOTAL - NBI Prepared or Regionally agreed 879 679.4 B. Selected NBI assisted projects Lake Victoria Environmental Management Project - Phase 2 for Rwanda and 40 40 IDA, GEF, Sweden 2011 Burundi (prepared by NELSAP) TOTAL - NBI assisted projects 40 40 GRAND TOTAL- NBI prepared & assisted 919 719.4 II. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER PREPARATION Total Cost Target Start of (Million Secured Possible Source(s) of Project Title Implementation US$) Financing Financing (Calendar Year) (est.) A. NBI Project Portfolio AfDB African Water Bugesera Integrated Water and Irrigation Project (Rwanda-Burundi) 50 0 2013 Facility EN Flood Preparedness and Early Warning - Phase 2 42 0 2014 Regional Rusumo Falls Hydro-electric and Multipurpose Project (Tanzania, IDA, AfDB, Netherlands 430 0 2014 Rwanda, Burundi) (Pledged ) ($13 million under Kagera Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and watershed 280 0 consideration from 2013 management - (Burundi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda) CIWA) 62 – IDA (under Sio Malaba Malakisi Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and water 115 0 consideration -Maira 2015 shed management (includes Maira and Bulusambu Dam Projects) (Kenya, Uganda) Dam project) Mara Sub-Basin Small Multipurpose storage reservoirs and water shed management See note for Kagera 90 0 2015 (Tanzania, Kenya) above Small Scale Irrigation Investments in Tanzania (Prepared to pre-feasibility level 265 0 Government of TZ is 2015 7 II. INVESTMENT PROJECTS UNDER PREPARATION Total Cost Target Start of (Million Secured Possible Source(s) of Project Title Implementation US$) Financing Financing (Calendar Year) (est.) through NEL Water Project) looking to secure financing internally Power interconnection. Iringa-Mbaya Transmission Line. 200 0 IDA, JICA and AfDB 2015 Under discussion with Power interconnection. Kenya-Tanzania Transmission Line. 271 0 2015 several financiers Power Interconnection. Uganda (Nkenda) – Democratic Republic of Congo (Beni – 165 0 Butembo – Bunia) Power Transmission Line Study Project (ongoing) B. Selected NBI Facilitated Projects Egypt Irrigation & Drainage: (West Delta) (agreed regionally through NBI, prepared and implemented nationally) 213 0 Egypt Grand Total – NBI Projects Under Preparation 1,584 0 III. TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE AND PRE-INVESTMENT ACTIVITIES TO IDENTIFY PROJECTS FOR POSSIBLE FUTURE PREPARATION AND FINANCING Advancing the NEL Water Resources Development Project (TA) Identification and preparation of pre-investment projects for water resources development and management with regional significance. Over $200 million of investments under identification. Includes: -Lake Kyoga Development Strategy and Investment Plan ($170 mn); Yala River Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan ($639 mn); Gucha-Migori Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan ($857 mn); Aswa Basin Development Strategy & Investment Plan ($728 mn); and Lake Victoria basin in Tanzania ($359 mn). Baro-Akobo Multipurpose Project (Ethiopia, Sudan) USD 3.5 million from AWF and NEPAD Future investments which may emerge from the EN Planning Model US$ 6.5 million from NBTF; and Cooperative Regional Assessments in watershed management, irrigation and drainage, and power trade. NEL Climate Adaptation Mainstreaming Project (TA) €400,000 from KfW Regional Agriculture trade and Productivity Project USD 7.7 million from NBTF. Irrigation sites under identification. Pre-feasibility Studies to be funded under NCORE. Sudan Irrigation and Drainage (Upper Atbara, Sudan) Future investments may also emerge from the multisectoral investment opportunities analysis in the Eastern Nile, being undertaken through the NCORE project 8 1. Project Context, Development Objectives and Design 1.1 Context at Appraisal Collaboration within the Nile Basin, though often discussed as a political, economic or technological challenge, begins with a knowledge-related challenge. If a shared understanding of the river is not developed, neither politics, nor economics, nor technology will help the countries work together to reach the Nile Basin Initiative’s overarching goal, “to achieve sustainable socio-economic development through equitable utilization of and benefit from the common Nile Basin water resources.� In 1999 when the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was formed, although the Nile Basin countries had tools for understanding the river none were shared by all countries. There was limited data sharing and fragmented data, and wide variations in capacity to model and analyze water resources across the basin countries. Knowledge and understanding of river system behavior and inter-linkages, particularly transboundary impacts, was limited, often resulting in misperceptions about possible opportunities and trade-offs. Knowledge of potential climate change impacts was also limited. The complexity and variability of the river basin’s hydrology required an integrated approach to water resources management, enabled by the creation of a shared knowledge base and a common set of analytical tools as well as technical capacity. The Bank was requested to support the Nile Basin Initiative by the Nile Council of Ministers from the nine member countries including the identification and development of a portfolio of projects, and the formation and management of a multi-donor financing mechanism, Nile Basin Trust Fund (NBTF). The Bank subsequently raised US$200m from donors and through the NBTF funded the Shared Vision Program (SVP) of seven projects to build trust and confidence across the basin, the Subsidiary Action Programs (SAP) to identify and prepare investments, and an institutional strengthening project. This project, the Water Resources Planning & Management project (WRPMP), is one of the Shared Vision Program projects. It aimed to build analytical capacity for the NBI8 to support informed and transparent decision-making in multi-stakeholder and multi-country contexts. This helps to facilitate confidence and trust among stakeholders and countries - a key dimension of Nile cooperation - and the achievement of the Shared Vision of sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. The primary output of the project, the Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS), is a software framework with a suite of modeling and information management tools for communication, information management and analysis of water resources. It provides a platform for sharing knowledge, understanding river system behavior, and evaluating alternative development and management scenarios (Boxes 1 and 2). The project was designed as a six year project with a budget of US$32.86m of which the Nile Basin Trust Fund grant was US$23.89m9. At the design stage, two phases were envisaged to align with funding availability, with the second phase planned as a direct follow-on with additional financing. However when Phase 2 was being prepared, the Bank Nile team was advised that a new project and grant 8 NBI has three regional Centres; the Nile Secretariat (NileSEC) based on Entebbe Uganda, the Eastern Nile Technical Regional Office (ENTRO) based in Addis Ababa Ethiopia, and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Program Coordination Unit (NELSAP-CU) based in Kigali Rwanda. 9 Project Appraisal Document, Report No. 31989, April 2005. Phase 1 had four components: Water Policy (supported by BMZ/GIZ, closed December 2008), Project Planning and Management (supported by AfDB, closed December 2010), the Decision Support System (supported by NBTF, continued for phase 2, closed 31 December 2012), and a regional management component (supported by NBTF, continued for phase 2, closed 31 December 2012). 9 agreement was required and that the remaining funds from Phase 1 should be channeled to Phase 2 upon its closure. Phase 1 of the project (P075946/TF053906) was effective in February 2005 with a grant of US$ 12.8 million, closing in April 200910. As planned, Phase 2 (P116318/TF093972), which became effective on 30 March 2009 with a grant of US$ 11.2 million, continued the work of Phase 1 with the focus on the ongoing development, application and sustainability of the DSS11. Upon closure of Phase 1, the remaining funds were channeled into Phase 2, making the total Phase 2 grant US$17.2 million. Overall the NBTF grant to the project for both phases was US$24.0 million. 1.2 Original Project Development Objectives (PDO) and Key Indicators The Project Development Objective was to enhance analytical capacity for a basin wide perspective to support the development, management, and protection of Nile Basin water resources in an equitable, optimal, integrated, and sustainable manner. The PDO indicators, only one of which was applicable to Phase 212 were:  National water policies and strategies improved or initiated based on sound integrated resources management (IWRM) and good-practice guidelines in Nile Basin countries. (A phase 1 indicator, not relevant for phase 2 as no related component).  Nile riparians prepare and implement multi-country projects based on sound IWRM principles and good practice in project planning and management. (A phase 1 indicator, not relevant for phase 2 as no related component).  Decision Support System (DSS) is operational and used by Nile riparians to exchange information, support riparian dialogue, and identify cooperative investment projects. (The focus of Phase 2). 1.3 Revised PDO (as approved by original approving authority) and Key Indicators, and reasons/justification The PDO remained unchanged for the duration of the project. The PDO indicators, outcomes and outcome indicators were reviewed and revised in January 2011, almost half way through the implementation period; the changes were approved by Nile Program Manager 13. The revisions were to make the PDO indicators more relevant to the original (unchanged) PDO, deleting two indicators which related to components that were never active in phase 2, and making the third more specific and measurable. The revised results framework formed the basis of all subsequent monitoring by the WRPMP and the Bank. 10 WRPMP Phase 1 was assessed as part of the Programmatic Implementation Completion and Results report of the Shared Vision Program in June 2010. It was rated as satisfactory and the risk to the development outcome was rated as substantial. The Bank performance for quality at entry, supervision and overall performance was assessed as satisfactory. Borrower performance was also satisfactory. The report noted the need for careful succession planning for the DSS including the transformation of the PMUs regional DSS Centre into a sustainable institution. 11 Project Paper Phase II, March 2009. 12 Two of the PDO indicators were not relevant to Phase 2 because the overall project design did not link the development of the DSS (component 3) to the first two PDO indicators (components 1 and 2). 13 At the time the team was advised that these changes would not require a formal approval process. In preparing the ICR, the team sought advice from IEG who confirmed that only PDO changes required approval, not upgraded indicators as in this case. 10 The revised single PDO indicator was:  Level of effectiveness of DSS operation in three NBI Centers and in nine member countries (rated as high, medium, low based on standard criteria assessed periodically by project team). This indicator aimed to measure the extent of ‘enhanced analytical capacity’ by specifically assessing whether the NBI and riparians could operate the DSS sustainably based on standard criteria and requirements for NBI and for the countries. Indicators at outcome level measured the extent of application by NBI and riparians to regional and national case studies. Relative to the original, the revised PDO indicator for DSS is more precise and rigorous in the definition of “operational�, “used� and “Nile riparians�. The revised PDO indicator does not specifically address the purpose of use (e.g., identify cooperative investment projects) of the DSS, as generally indicated in the original indicator; however, intermediate outcome indicators cover this aspect (see section 1.5 below). 1.4 Main Beneficiaries The primary target group is the Nile Basin Initiative and its member countries. The Project Paper for Phase 2 was not explicit on beneficiaries but noted that realization of project objectives would play a key role in enabling the NBI and an emergent Nile river basin organization to accomplish its expected mandate. The DSS would create a common knowledge base and technical tools to provide the means for clarifying the impacts and implications of various development alternatives and thereby enable the NBI countries to make joint investment decisions. The DSS was also recognized to be a critical tool to enable the NBI to sustainably manage the Nile’s waters and respond to emerging challenges, for example to identify the best regional solutions to climate change-related impacts on water resources in the basin. Through such joint efforts, the DSS was expected to strengthen trust and regional cooperation among riparians, spurring greater regional integration and the additional benefits that may ensue. The original PAD for the project is more explicit on beneficiaries. It notes the sustainable development of water resources and water-related investment projects on a regional scale is central to the goal of poverty alleviation in the Nile Basin with the development of mutually acceptable and environmentally sound investment projects to support sustainable economic growth and improved social conditions in the long term benefiting the entire population of the Nile Basin. The immediate beneficiaries of the project were noted to be policymakers and decision makers as well as planners and managers of water resources in the Nile riparian countries. Enhanced skills coupled with improved analytical tools and strengthened institutions were expected to improve the basis for strategic planning, the identification and implementation of cooperative projects, and sound technical evaluations. 1.5 Original Components The project had two components:  The Nile Basin Decision Support System , US$13.77m 14  Regional Coordination and Facilitation , US$3.35m 15 Component 1: Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS). Building upon the achievements in Phase 1 particularly the completion of a needs assessment and the conceptual design of the DSS as well as the establishment of the project team at regional and national levels, the activities in Phase 2 focused on the actual development of the DSS and on its practical application. Specific aspects included: 14 DSS funding for phase 1 was US$ 4.53m, so overall phase 1 and 2 is US$18.30m in total 15 Regional cooperation and facilitation funding for phase 1 was US$2.14m, so overall phase 1 and 2 is US$5.49m in total. Phase 2 includes a fee of US$1.5 million for the Management Services Agency (UNOPS) for 2010-2012. 11  DSS development: The development of the DSS was based on the needs assessment and conceptual design completed as a consultative process with the member countries in Phase 1. Phase 2 included three parallel and interactive work packages: i) software development, ii) data preparation, model calibration, testing and certification, and iii) supervision and monitoring. In addition, the development of the DSS involved parallel testing of the product (with successive defined releases of the DSS each with additional functionality) on selected project cases. This aimed to demonstrate the usefulness of the DSS to decision makers and to build a forward work plan for its application, thereby helping to keep it ‘live’ throughout the long and highly technical development period.  Institutional and human capacity strengthening: DSS development was accompanied by continuous involvement and training of staff from across the NBI and the national DSS units in all NBI countries. This built their skills for future application to regional and national issues to ensure the sustainable use of the DSS after project completion. The training program was linked to the successive DSS releases which enabled skills to be built progressively as DSS functionality increased.  Data guidelines and information exchange: This included several activities to build knowledge and information sharing, in particular development of Nile Basin data and information sharing procedures and their subsequent application, and consolidation of the Nile Basin knowledge base that covered diverse aspects of water and related resources, the Nile Information-System. Component 2: Regional Coordination and Facilitation. This was a continuation of activities started under Phase 1 ensuring the proactive management of the project and maximized added value of engagement across NBI and with other related regional initiatives. Activities included facilitation of the Project Steering Committee, linkages to other NBI projects to build synergies16, and linkages to appropriate regional initiatives to further regional knowledge coordination17. As for Phase 1, the execution of the project was divided between NBI and a Management Services Agency18. The large consultant contracts for DSS development were executed by the NBI and directly disbursed by the Bank. Remaining project activities at both regional and national levels continued to be executed on behalf of the NBI by a Management Services Agency. The original intermediate results and indicators are given in Table 1. The original results framework is provided in Annex 2, Table 1. 16 In particular the Institutional Strengthening Project (P110616) and the Eastern Nile Planning Model project (P103639), both also funded by the NBTF. 17 In particular the Sida funded, UNEP implemented project, adapting to climate change induced water stress in the Nile River Basin. 18 All the Shared Vision Program projects were supported by a Management Services Agency, UNOPS. This was required to enable NBI to hire staff in all countries (since NBI did not have legal status in all countries) as well as to support and oversee procurement and financial management as NBI gained capacity. 12 Table 1 Original outcomes and indicators Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Provisional version of DSS and IS operational and made 1.a Use of the NB DSS commenced to inform decision- available to key stakeholders (government ministries, making for investment planning and water resources public utilities, other) by end 2010 management at national and regional levels. Final version of Nile Basin DSS and IS operational and made available to public by mid-2012 1.b DSS – related data and information are shared in Nile Basin data sharing procedures drafted, agreed upon, active and ongoing fashion among key stakeholders and ratified by riparian governments. (NBI, riparian government ministries, others). 1.c Sustained Capacity for DSS development, DSS used to identify and prepare SAP investments management and application. Sufficient human resources are secured in a sustainable 2.a Sustained capacity to oversee and manage complex manner and equipped with training needed to manage, regional projects demonstrated by Nile-TAC,WRPM apply and improve the DSS in a continuous fashion. PSC, NBI Secretariat, and WRPM PMU Staff. Action Plan and Policy for sustainable human resources management containing a succession plan 1.6 Revised Components There were no revisions to the components. The activities were carried out as planned. The outcomes and indicators were reviewed and revised in January 2011 to enable more specific and measurable monitoring of the project. The revised outcomes and indicators are given in Table 2. The complete revised results framework is provided in Annex 2, table. Table 2 Revised outcomes and indicators Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Outcome 1 NB DSS applied on selected key water resources planning/management projects in the Nile Number of project cases on which the Nile DSS is Basin (regional and national) and results used to inform successfully applied. decision making Percent of data required for DSS use received by WRPM project from countries. Outcome 2 Relevant data and information are shared Status of Interim Procedures for Data Sharing and Operational Guidelines Outcome 3 Appropriate institutional, technical and financial arrangements for sustained DSS operational Percent of arrangements in place and operational at use. regional, sub-regional, and national levels. Outcome 4 Effective and efficient project % completion of tasks within annual work plan management. % execution of annual budget 13 1.7 Other significant changes There were no significant changes to the design, scope, scale, implementation arrangements or schedule. The Nile Secretariat requested additional financing of US$1.85m in May 2012. This was to enhance the functionality, sustainability and application of the DSS. Instead of an additional grant to the WRPMP, the Bank and project team agreed to finance the required activities from other related NBTF funded projects. This stimulated greater cross sharing of information and learning as well as strengthening synergies between NBI projects. It also maximized cost effectiveness and disbursement across the NBI portfolio. The WRPMP partnered with the Eastern Nile Planning Model (ENPM, P103639, TF94549) and with the Regional Agricultural Trade Project (RATP, P115414, TF95157). Each project contributed approximately US$500,000 for additional features, some training, equipment and additional software licenses. South Sudan joined NBI as a formal member in July 2012. To support their integration, an NBI senior management team including from the WRPMP traveled to Juba to discuss the NBI Shared Vision, Strategic Plan, program framework and current projects, member state obligations (such as financial contributions) and to assess their priorities requirements to benefit from NBI. This included an assessment of technical capacity within the ministry to utilize the DSS and support to build capacity, with immediate access to DSS regional training and provision of DSS related equipment and software. Box 1 Components and relationship for a DSS (Source: World Bank Central Asia water energy linkages road map) 14 Box 2 Description of the Nile Basin Decision Support System The Nile Basin Decision Support System The Nile Basin Decision Support System is a software framework with a suite of modeling and information management tools for communication, information management and analysis of water resources. It provides a platform for sharing knowledge, understanding river system behavior, and evaluating alternative development and management scenarios. It supports informed and transparent decision-making in multi-stakeholder and multi-country contexts. This helps to facilitate confidence and trust among stakeholders and countries - a key dimension of Nile cooperation - and the achievement of the Shared Vision of sustainable socio-economic development through the equitable utilization of, and benefit from, the common Nile Basin water resources. The Nile Basin DSS has been designed to meet the requirements of complex multi-sector water resources planning. It provides diverse toolsets for data processing, modeling, scenario management, optimization and multi-criterion decision making as well as tools for integrating environmental, social and economic objectives into planning. It is a generic system that can be applied at basin, sub-basin, and national scales, enabling a broad range of applications by the NBI and its member states. It is easily adaptable and can be extended with new toolsets without the need for a major change to the program code. This maximizes its versatility. Functionality includes:  Simulation of river basin hydrologic processes. The DSS has integrated modeling tools for simulating water balance, water allocation, river flow, erosion and sedimentation. It allows investigation of impacts of existing and planned infrastructure investments and water uses, such hydro-power and irrigated agriculture.  Scenario analysis and management. The DSS can create, edit, simulate, and analyse water resources development and management scenarios, and then compare scenarios based on parameters selected by the user. The built-in cost-benefit-analysis functions allow quantification of benefits, impacts and trade-offs of scenarios.  Multi-objective optimization. This tool generates optimal solutions to a range of water resources planning problems. Users can integrate economic, social and environmental parameters.  Multi-criteria decision analysis. The DSS supports informed and transparent decision making through evaluation of the consequences of various decision options, integrating the objectives and preferences of the range of stakeholders.  Integration of environmental and socio-economic objectives. The DSS has a built-in indictor tool for quantification and evaluation of environmental and socio-economic consequences of water resources development and management scenarios. These can be used to rank scenarios using the multi-criteria decision analysis tool.  Comprehensive information management. The DSS has an integrated database coupled with a suite of statistical data management tools for analysis, visualization and archiving of diverse types of data. Its GIS functionality enables users to analyse and generate special and geo-referenced datasets. 15 2. Key Factors Affecting Implementation and Outcomes 2.1 Project Preparation, Design and Quality at Entry Project preparation19 and design was thorough and involved extensive consultation with the NBI member countries and international DSS experts facilitated by an international firm. This included a number of study tours and training so that the project team and the Project Steering Committee could review global good practice. Study visits included Colorado, Murray-Darling, and Mekong river basins. Quality at entry was sound as Phase 2 was a direct follow-on from Phase 1 which had satisfactory ratings for Achievement of PDO and Implementation Progress. Lessons of earlier operations were taken into account. Lessons learned from earlier activities on the Nile Basin other major international basins were incorporated in project design. Firstly, the emphasis on building analytical capacity and a common modeling and analysis platform to inform basin planning, management and development for all member countries. This was aimed to ‘level the playing field’ and bring transparency to decision making. Secondly, the involvement of all member countries in the design and implementation of the project to build ownership and acceptance. Thirdly, extensive capacity building at national as well as regional and sub-regional levels to ensure the broad application of the DSS to inform decision making. And finally, the capacity and continuity of the project team was considered critical to ensuring the successful development of the DSS to meet Nile basin requirements. Key risks and mitigation measures were identified. Risks included the ambitious work program requiring diligence in monitoring progress; the need for an appropriate regional-national balance in order to ensure country uptake; the potential for an overly process-oriented approach; and the need for appropriate focus on the long-term sustainability of the DSS both within the NBI and at national level. All the identified risks played out during the implementation of the project and were effectively mitigated by the project. An overarching risk that the Nile countries would not remain actively engaged in the NBI process was also identified and although mitigation measures were proposed to continue engagement, this was largely beyond the influence of the project. Another overarching risk was that countries could not reach agreement on data sharing with mitigation measures including a consultative process and sufficient time for review and consultation. Participatory processes were essential and substantial. The DSS had to be developed and used in such a way that all riparians had full confidence in the ability of the system to provide rational and objective support based on the best available data, information, and estimates. To achieve this, all riparians were involved on an equal footing in the development process. A comprehensive needs assessment was conducted at regional, sub-regional, and national levels to inform the potential scope of DSS application. This was consolidated into a set of eight priorities and two cross cutting issues (Box 3). Participation continued into technical development and testing. Assumptions, methodologies, and technical descriptions were agreed and readily accessible by users and decision makers. Getting an appropriate balance between participation and inclusiveness and the need for progress within tight schedules initially proved challenging for the project team. 19 The project was designed as one and only separated into phase 1 and 2 due to availability of NBTF financing. 16 Box 3 Nile Basin Decision Support System priority areas (Source: NBI WRPMP Project Completion Report) 2.2 Implementation Implementation of the project was smooth, building on the existing structures, staffing and procedures from Phase 1. There were no changes to implementation arrangements. The project was rated as satisfactory throughout its duration. Risks were proactively monitored and mitigated. Overall, implementation of the WRPMP should really be viewed in the context of the collective project support to the NBI. This includes the Institutional Strengthening Project as well as the various knowledge and water resources development projects with the SAPs which created a demand for the DSS application. In isolation from the other projects, the implementation and success of WRPMP as well as the sustainability of its outcomes would not have been possible. Factors that contributed to success  The drive for equitable and sustainable utilization with development of the basin. Development of the shared Nile water resources has historically been unilateral, with limited assessment of the resulting impacts and implications for upstream or downstream riparians. Several basin countries have repeatedly stated their desire for tangible on-the-ground investments and recognize that cooperative action can lead to broader benefits. With increasing demand for water from population growth and economic development, and with increasing awareness for the protection of environmental flows, the basin countries recognized that the options and implications of management and development needed to be better understood for them to be able to maximize their investment opportunities and collectively mitigate risks.  The clear need for a common analysis platform and country demand. The project focused on a clear need of the basin countries to develop a common analysis platform to support a better understanding of and informed decision making about the opportunities, challenges, and potential scenarios and 17 trade-offs of cooperative water resources management and development. It was recognized that a DSS would form the corner stone of any river basin organization, helping to bring knowledge and to ‘level the playing field’ particularly noting the complexities of Nile hydrology, the uncertainty of climate change, and the asymmetry of understanding and capacity between Nile riparians. The WRPM project in general, and the Nile DSS in particular, were prioritized by the Nile Council of Ministers in 1999 as part of the development of the Shared Vision Program. Now that the DSS has been developed, Member States are prioritizing cases for its further application including broadening the general knowledge base about Nile hydrology and for specific development scenarios and projects.  The project had a very specific focus. The project was focused on the development of the DSS and related capacity for its sustained use, with a clear PDO and well defined outputs. All activities were specific to achieving the objective, within the available budget and timeframe for the project. The project team set out clear milestones for progress which were reviewed regularly including by the project steering committee, drawing attention as required to manage slippages (such as data sharing) to the NileTAC.  Mainstreaming and sustainability issues were considered from the start. With a long term view, consideration of mainstreaming and sustainability was a pre-requisite for a successful project. This required attention to the institutional, financial, and technical issues which would enable the effective operation and maintenance of the DSS. At project-level, the PMU provided the dedicated capacity to develop the DSS, and at the basin-level, close working relations were built with the WRM Department at the Nile SEC20 to provide the long term institutional home for the DSS. At the national level, building DSS capability in national focal point institutions (typically the ministries of water) was a key element of the project, with project funded staff supporting national staff for DSS application on national issues. A DSS sustainability plan was developed in mid-2011 which provided actions for immediate attention (prior to project closure), the short term (2013-2017 corresponding o the NBI Strategic Plan), medium term (2017-2023) and longer term (post 2023). It was reviewed and agreed by all the countries in December 2011, with the subsequent implementation of the immediate actions and a start on the short term actions. The latter are continuing to be implemented under a new NBTF/CIWA funded project for NBI, Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE, P130694).  Sustaining a highly qualified professional project team. The project’s success can be attributed to the professionalism and dedication of the team, and in particular the Regional Project Manager and the Lead DSS Specialist. The WRPMP is noted to have been the most technically challenging and institutionally complex project within the Shared Vision Program portfolio. The PMU operated across the three NBI Centers and across the nine NBI member countries21, with over 50 professional staff employed throughout the basin as well as support staff. In addition, the project achieved success operating in a challenging hydro-political context with a historic lack of data and information sharing. 20 The WRM Unit at the Nile Secretariat was established and strengthened under a parallel NBTF funded project, the Institutional Strengthening Project (P110616/TF93015). To support NBI to achieve sound integration of a key building block for the institutions core function, the Bank Nile Program Manager designated the same Task Team Leader for both projects from mid-2010 to their closure. 21 The project focused on the nine NBI member countries. Whilst South Sudan only formally joined NBI six months prior to project closure, participants from the Ministry of Water attended a number of training sessions and benefited from provision of DSS related equipment. Support for DSS application in South Sudan is continuing under the NCORE project. 18  Proactive support from the World Bank. The Bank Nile team played a critical enabling role in the initiation and preparation of the project, drawing on global knowledge and experience. The project was a first of its kind in the Bank and with hindsight, the Bank’s commitment can be viewed as a visionary judgment call (leap of faith) with such a substantial investment at an early stage in the evolution of a river basin organization. This judgment recognized the imperative for sound analytical capacity to underpin Nile cooperation. The project was agreed to be ambitious in terms of its technical complexity and timeframe, as well as the need to meet the Nile COM requirement for a project team staffed entirely from the basin countries. The Bank team supported the project with sound advice to maintain the momentum and to overcome initial hurdles.  Cooperation at the regional level was critical. The cooperation at the regional DSS level was supported by forming a DSS core team and regional DSS working groups with participation of staff from all riparian countries. Awareness raising workshops across a range of sectors helped to ensure that interaction occurred with relevant sectors outside the water sector on a regional and national basis.  Process and results orientation had to be appropriately balanced. The implementation plan aimed to balance the need for a gradual, participatory development of the DSS based on collaboration and intensive training, with the need to demonstrate the usefulness of the DSS at an early stage to maintain momentum and interest. Whilst this was challenging, it was successfully achieved. Factors that caused implementation problems  Freeze in cooperation of two Member States. The context for Nile cooperation with negotiations over the Nile Comprehensive Framework Agreement and the subsequent freeze in participation of two Member States impacted negatively on project implementation. From mid-2010, the two Member States no longer participated in regional WRPMP workshops and did not formally receive project staff to the country. However engagement was maintained at a national level through the project funded staff within the host institution including, for example, continued training the national counterpart staff on updates of the DSS and Sudan’s development of a national DSS integration plan.  Unequal interest and capacity in the basin countries. Not all Member States prioritized the DSS in the same way, partly due to the current status of the water sector in the country and their perception of its relevance. This often resulted in insufficient allocation of time for the counterpart staff to build their skills and learn from the project staff. The project team provided a number of countries with additional training as well as additional equipment to support the functional use of the DSS. Overall despite the challenges, only two of the nine countries were assessed as possibly not able to sustain DSS application, DRC and Rwanda. At the Project Steering Committee meetings, participants shared experiences, offering ideas to each other about how to increase commitment for greater national integration. Burundi in particular made great efforts and was assessed as achieving medium sustainability. 2.3 Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) Design, Implementation and Utilization M&E design. The M&E system for the WRPMP was based on the results framework in the Project Paper. It was largely appropriate with indicators, baselines and annual targets at objective, outcome and output levels. With the revision of the results framework in early 2011, the M&E system was also revised. A comprehensive Performance Management Framework was developed including the baselines, end of project targets, and interim six monthly targets. 19 M&E implementation. The PMU with a dedicated M&E Officer managed the M&E system for the project. This included monitoring of project progress, with assessment of implementation progress and budget expenditure, and reporting against the planned activities for the month, quarter and year. M&E has been rated as satisfactory throughout the project duration. M&E Utilisation. The M&E system was utilized by the WRPMP Regional Project Manager, the NileSEC, and the Bank team to track project implementation and results. Monthly activity reports were produced and reviewed in line with financial reporting. Six monthly reports and annual reports were also produced, reporting against the work program and budget. These were reviewed by the Project Steering Committee and formed the basis for review during the Bank’s Implementation Support Missions. 2.4 Safeguard and Fiduciary Compliance Safeguard compliance. The project was rated as Category C in the Phase 1 PAD and the Phase 2 Project Paper, reflecting the focus on building capacity and technical tools. This was unchanged throughout the project duration. The project outcomes will help to facilitate sustainable development and conservation of land, water and environmental resources through skills enhancement, building of technical tools for regional analysis, and by enabling assessment of the social and environmental implications of any proposed water resources management or development plans. Financial Management. Financial management for the project was satisfactory and the risk rating assessed as low. The basis for this assessment is as follows:  Compliance with legal covenants related to financial management.  Staffing was adequate and staff was well trained in World Bank policies and procedures.  Internal control processes were satisfactory.  Budgeting and budget management was sound and well monitored, including review of variance between planned and actual expenditure.  The project submitted timely and good quality Interim Financial Reports (IFRs) on a quarterly basis with separate IFRs for the funds executed by the Nile Secretariat and by UNOPS.  All the external annual audits were unqualified.  The project disbursed virtually 100% of the grant amount of US$ 17.2 million, utilizing all the funds within the project period. Procurement. Procurement compliance was satisfactory. The PMU maintained appropriate capacity, systems and procedures throughout the duration of the project, with strengthening as required in line with advice from the Bank’s procurement specialists. Procurement staff was familiar with Bank procedures and received training. Major procurement activities were undertaken by the project including consultants and goods which were well managed. The procurement register showed the total contracts for consultancy services amounted to $12.86 million and the total for goods $0.135 million. The Bank completed regular Post Procurement Reviews including a final review which was satisfactory. 2.5 Post-completion Operation/Next Phase An integral part of the project was the sustainable operation of the DSS beyond the closure of the project with mainstreaming of the DSS within the institutional structures at basin, sub-basin and national levels. This was satisfactorily achieved. Sustainability within the NBI is largely assured, with clear relevance and value of project outcomes to NBI and related expert capacity to ensure sustained use. With the DSS now barely out of its development stage, over the next few years further attention and support will be required to ensure its full mainstreaming and effective use. With the closure of the WRPM project, the WRPMP team ensured excellent transition to the long term host institution, the Nile Secretariat, ensuring full operational 20 effectiveness prior to closure of project with the ability to take the DSS to next stage of application. The Nile Secretariat’s Water Resources Management Department has been established and strengthened to become the basin-wide center for water resources analysis, offering technical advice and support for DSS users. The sub-basin NBI development offices, ENTRO and NELSAP-CU are using the DSS for planning and have capable units in place. Sustainability within the NBI Member States has progressed well, with seven of the nine able to fully utilize the NB DSS with trained staff and demonstrated applications for national planning. This assessment is based on a range of issues considered by the project team. Host institutions have developed integration plans including budget allocations and staffing plans, and most have signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the NBI for the DSS operational use in accordance with the software license agreement. In addition, in Uganda, Kenya and Ethiopia22, the DSS host ministries have chosen the Nile Basin DSS as the tool to support national level analysis and planning (within the Nile basin and beyond), further enhancing its sustainability. Since January 2013, the application of the DSS has been funded through an NBTF/CIWA project, Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE, P130694). NBI member states have been engaged in scoping and deciding on applications for the DSS to address priority basin wide issues and challenges as part of the development of the work plan for the WRM Department. Compelling information and analysis to inform understanding of the basin, its management and development will be generated, including on economic, social and environmental implications. In addition, some limited support at national level as well as a user helpdesk and a user community to share experiences and further develop the DSS to meet user needs will be provided under NCORE. 3. Assessment of Outcomes 3.1 Relevance of Objectives, Design and Implementation Relevance. The project’s development objective was highly relevant for the riparian countries. The project aimed to enhance analytical capacity for a basin wide perspective to support the development, management and protection of Nile Basin water resources in a cooperative manner. In terms of design, the DSS is a practical application of a prescriptive approach for NBI stakeholders and member countries to make informed decisions, utilizing tools, methodologies and software. The DSS is an analytical tool which enables the NBI and its member states to better understand river system behavior, dispelling mis- perceptions and enabling a common perspective on the opportunities and challenges of basin management and development. In a broader context, it is imperative to understand the political economy of cooperation - and a sound knowledge base is a key element underpinning the benefits of river basin cooperation. Capacity and knowledge, having the confidence and ability to negotiate a fair deal, and having sufficient and correct information and knowledge to do so, is a key element in the risks and opportunities, costs and benefits in of a cooperation framework to transboundary waters. 23 22 The national application of the DSS in Uganda, Ethiopia and Kenya is supported by national water resources management projects funded from IDA grants. This synergy between regional and national level activities is extremely valuable to reinforce both and maximize effectiveness and efficiency of project resources. The projects are the Uganda Water Management and Development project, the Ethiopia Tana-Beles Integrated Water Resources Development project, and the Kenya Water Security & Climate Resilience project. 23 World Bank (2012) Reaching Across the Waters – Facing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters. Other elements include accountability and voice; sovereignty and autonomy; equity and access; and stability and support. 21 The project’s objective was also relevant for global priorities. The stability and development of the Nile region is of global significance. Eight of the eleven basin countries rank amongst the lowest globally for GDP per capita with significant challenges of food security, energy security, and management of water relates shocks such as droughts and floods. The Nile basin population of 238 million people accounts for a quarter of the population of Sub-Saharan Africa (or half if the total country population is considered), with an estimated 72% living in the rural areas. With the high dependency on subsistence rain-fed agriculture for basic livelihoods and employment, and the uncertainty of future climate variability, tackling the sustainable development of the region through an institutionalized approach to cooperative management and development of the shared water resources is paramount. In addition, the Nile Basin holds environmental assets of global significance including the Sudd swamps and Lake Victoria. These need to be protected from the growing demands of water use and appropriately managed within a basin wide framework such as provided by the NBI. The development of the Nile Basin DSS helps the riparian countries to better understand, monitor and assess the state of the basin and the opportunities, constraints and trade-offs for its sustainable management and development. The project’s objective was relevant for the Bank’s regional assistance strategy. This recognizes the need for regional cooperation to achieve poverty reduction and economic growth especially for land locked countries. WRPMP strengthened NBI’s capacity to facilitate cooperative water resources management and development by providing a common analytical platform to support informed decision making. The project was also consistent with the commitment made by the Bank in its respective Country Assistance Strategies and Water Resources Assistance Strategies to provide a framework for cooperative dialogue, planning and preparation of future investments. Counterfactual. The counterfactual can better inform the achievement of the objective - if a shared understanding of the river is not developed, neither politics, nor economics, nor technology will help the countries work together to reach achieve their goal of “sustainable socio-economic development through equitable utilization of the and benefit from the common water resources.� Basins can also have sound modeling capability but without the necessary and sufficient institutional conditions, this capability does not either create a shared understanding or inform decision making. There are a number of global examples which illustrate that indeed an improved knowledge base and informed constituency can level the playing field and bring transparency to a decision making process. Examples include:  The DSS at BC Hydro in Canada: For more than fifteen years, BC Hydro has been developing and using a structured decision-making approach to make informed choices on multiple and sometimes competing objectives on water resources planning and management on the Columbia River. The process has for example has allowed kayakers, First Nations, and power-generation utilities to define issues and clarify trade-offs, while remaining focused on the triple bottom line of economics, environment and social priorities. This structured decision support system provided opportunities for dialogue, created a platform for cooperation, and resulted in a win-win outcome. BC Hydro managed to schedule planned flow releases with no loss in electricity generation or costs, kayaking’s popularity on the river tributaries were enhanced and increased, and First Nations continued to benefit from resources from the rivers.  Investment opportunity analysis of the Zambezi Basin: In 2010, the World Bank released a report that examined the potential of the Zambezi River as an engine for sustainable multi-sectoral development for the eight countries in the river basin. The analytical framework adopted a modeling package which examined development scenarios for growth-oriented investments in hydropower and irrigation while fully taking into account water supply and sanitation, flood management, the environment, tourism and wetland management. A scenario-development 22 economic assessment tool was used to provide riparian countries insight into options for joint or cooperative development as well as associated benefit sharing.  Use of analysis for water sharing between Mexico and United States: The Interstate Basin Water Commission (IBWC) jointly administers the terms of the 1944 Water Treaty which guarantees Mexico’s annual water quantity from the Colorado River. A recent amendment (November 20, 2012) to the 1944 Treaty, Minutes 319 guides future management of the Colorado River as part of the ongoing dialogue on water sharing issues. The significance of Minutes 319 is that the agreement was developed based on agreed upon and collaborated analytics. Every aspect of the data, such as what kind of data, how and when to collect the data, and model architecture was discussed, and shared by the engineers of the IBWC until both parties were in agreement, leaving little doubt regarding transparency of the data and outcome of the modeling. Design and Implementation. The project design was sound and remained relevant throughout the project duration. The components were appropriately related to and consistent with the stated PDO. As indicated in section 2.1, and illustrated above, the design reflected the experiences and the lessons learned from several international basins programs. It would have been useful during design to consider broader application with versions for the public domain and for policy makers, rather than just the version for technical experts. However in 2001 when the project was conceived and latterly designed, this was not considered appropriate due to the nascent nature of basin wide cooperation for analysis and data sharing. Similarly it may have been useful to focus on a range of easily-accessible non-highly technical knowledge products during the development stage. In the context of a cooperation framework, the project design and preparation was carried out in close cooperation with the NBI and riparian countries, to provide accountability and a voice. Implementation supported sovereignty and autonomy in mainstreaming across the NBI and the riparian countries, and equity and access achieved through the development of the Nile DSS resulting in informed planning and decision-making. It is anticipated through this project, the riparian countries can sustain stability and support, and this project will serve as a noteworthy example for application in other basins. Thus is can be concluded that the project’s design and implementation were highly relevant. 3.2 Achievement of Project Development Objectives Progress towards achievement of the PDO The Project Development Objective was fully achieved. The Nile Basin Initiative and its member states have the analytical capacity for a basin wide perspective to support the development, management, and protection of Nile Basin water resources in an equitable, optimal, integrated, and sustainable manner. Assessment of achievement was based on the results framework indicators at objective and outcome levels and their targets for the end of the project as described in the following tables. At the start, the project was considered ambitious in terms of its scope and complexity particularly within the challenging hydro-political context and historic lack of data and information sharing. The project team has effectively and efficiently led the development of a common platform for basin wide communication, information management and analysis of water resources to identify, assess and assist decision makers to optimize water resources planning and development and to clarify potential impacts. 23 Table 3 PDO performance indicator, baseline, target and achievement Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB Expected Results Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 comments To enhance Fully achieved. WRPM Phase analytical capacity Level of Assessed: 1 completed, for a basin wide effectiveness of - high in Nile-SEC, Project with regional Level of perspective to DSS operation in NELSAP and exceeded and national effectiveness support the 3 NBI Centers and ENTRO. expectations. DSS units is: development, in 9 member - high in 5 countries: Objective established - high in 3 management, and countries Egypt, Ethiopia, recognized as and NBI Centers protection of Nile (rated as high, Uganda, Kenya, ambitious in undertaking - high in 4 Basin water medium, low Sudan relation to training on countries resources in an based on standard - medium in 2 Nile context DSS. Low - medium in 2 equitable, optimal, criteria assessed countries; Tanzania, and technical levels of countries integrated, and periodically by Burundi requirements. effectiveness sustainable manner. project team). - low in 2 countries; throughout. DRC, Rwanda Progress towards achievement of outcomes Outcome 1: DSS application Outcome 1 was fully achieved. The DSS is a key building block for the WRM/D function of the NBI. The DSS is used by the NBI and its member states for basin wide, sub basin and national analysis. Pilot cases have been used to demonstrate both regional and national applications. Transboundary applications have included to specific current issues and projects of relevance to the NBI and Member States. These include:  NELSAP-CU multi-sector investment program; an assessment of the cumulative economic, social and environmental impacts related to future scenarios for hydropower and irrigation development in the Nile Equatorial Lakes region  ENTRO Joint Multi-Purpose Project; an investigation of the main infrastructure and water management developments on the Blue Nile considering various operating rules and climate change scenarios to assess the economic, social and environmental impacts  Impact of development of the Sudd wetlands; an investigation of various options for the development and management of the Sudd water resources system and the resulting impacts to environmental and socio-economic indicators  Integrated basin development; an assessment of full basin development coupled with various management options and operating rules National applications have been completed in every Member State by the national DSS team. For example, in Ethiopia an evaluation of the impact of irrigation developments in Tana and Beles sub-basins on hydropower generation and lake navigation, and in Tanzania an evaluation of the effects of upstream catchment development on the ecological functions of the downstream Kirumi wetland in the Mara sub- basin. In addition, to support Member States to fully utilize the DSS in their national planning beyond the Nile Basin. 24 Table 4 Outcome 1 performance indicator, baseline, target and achievement Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Outcome 1 NB DSS applied on Number of 0 16 national Fully achieved. A good result. selected key water project cases 6 regional 18 national project Pilot cases were resources on which the cases prepared, 5 the basis for planning/management Nile DSS is requiring assessment of projects in the Nile Basin successfully additional national (regional and national) and applied. guidance. capacity hence results used to inform 7 regional project of decision making cases prepared. sustainability. Outcome 2 : Data and information Outcome 2 was fully achieved. A significant amount of historic data and information from across the basin countries has been shared by member countries and is now available to NBI. This includes discharge, rainfall and water level data from over one thousand stations, with some data starting from 1911. The project team has completed extensive data gathering, gap filing and quality assurance to provide comprehensive hydrological and meteorological data for the basin – now with more than forty years of quality assured datasets. This is a significant change compared to start of project when data was fragmented, in-complete, and not shared between countries. The Operational Guidelines on Interim Procedures for Data and Information Sharing and Exchange were endorsed by the NileCOM in July 2011. Implementation is ongoing. A basin monitoring strategy was developed by the project team in consultation with the NileTAC and endorsed by NileCOM in July 2012. This includes indicators for periodic monitoring and assessment of state of the basin. The indicators formed the basis for the recently published first ever comprehensive State of the Basin report by the NBI. The strategy also outlines the requirements for improvement of the basin hydro-met system, with a consultancy to develop the design specifications planned under the new NBTF/CIWA NCORE project. Table 5 Outcome 2 performance indicator, baseline, target and achievement Expected Performance Base year Final target Dec 31, Achievement WB comments Results Indicators April 2009 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Outcome 2 Percent of data Significant Relevant data required for DSS 30% 70% Exceeded target. achievement in and use received by 85% data received. context of information WRPM project historic lack of are shared from countries. data sharing. Status of Interim Interim Countries are moving Fully achieved. Significant Procedures for Procedures towards the Interim Procedures achievement in Data Sharing for Data operationalization of were approved by context of and Operational the interim NileCOM and are historic lack of Sharing Guidelines procedure in use to gain data sharing. approved further data needed for DSS. 25 Outcome 3: Sustainability With a clear and early focus on mainstreaming the DSS within the institutional structures of the NBI and the member countries, and with the demand from the three Centers and countries to utilize the DSS, outcome 3 was fully achieved. NileSEC is the permanent host for the DSS as NBI’s basin wide knowledge center. Its role is to maintain and further develop the DSS for application to basin wide issues, as well as to support the two NBI sub basin institutions (ENTRO and NELSAP-CU) and countries in their use of the DSS. With the fully capable technical team in place, including key staff from the WRPMP, this work has already started under the NCORE project with the NileSEC embarking on a strategic basin-wide assessment of the Nile Basin water resources to support informed decision making and dialogue among the Nile Basin riparians. Countries met in March 2013 to agree priorities within four categories: 1. enhancing the knowledge understanding of the Nile River System; exploring issues such as water consummation through evaporation and transpiration, the blue-green water potentials, historic and current drought patterns, estimated future water demands, storage characteristics of natural water bodies. 2. understanding major risks and transboundary issues; exploring issues such as the impacts of climate change, the location of hot spots, mitigation of droughts, opportunities for cooperative development. 3. exploring policy issues to promote knowledge-based and informed cooperative management; exploring issues such as common norms and standards for sustaining environment and ecosystem services, a common definition of water security. 4. harnessing basin opportunities to support cooperative and sustainable development; exploring issues such as impact of increasing water demands and planned developments, optimization across the basin, opportunities for water savings. ENTRO and NELSAP-CU also have full capability to utilize the DSS and are already applying it to planning. For example from 2013, ENTRO will use the DSS, along with other tools, to undertake a Multi-Sectoral Opportunity Analysis and Integrated Development Plan for the Eastern Nile sub-basins including analysis of options for hydropower and irrigation development potential and for analysis of climate adaptation and mitigation measures, and to study salinity problems in the Nile Delta and seawater intrusion. Sustainability at the national level was assessed in relation to the development of a comprehensive national integration plan, retention of qualified staff, financing, and adequacy of equipment. Of the nine countries, seven were assessed as high and medium, with only two assessed as low. Whilst it remains early days to be sure of sustainability at the national level, the assessment now provides a clear status of achievement at the end of the project as well as a baseline for further engagement to support member countries. Table 6 Outcome 3 performance indicator, baseline, target and achievement Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Outcome 3 Appropriate Percent of 0% Nile-SEC: Fully achieved. Transition to Nile- institutional, arrangements in 100% Nile-SEC: 100% SEC excellent. technical and place and ENTRO: ENTRO: 100% SAPs fully capable financial operational at 100% NELSAP-CU: 100% of utilizing DSS. arrangements for regional, sub- NELSAP- Countries: 75% (7 Countries now to sustained DSS regional, and CU: 100% out of 9 with good consolidate operational use. national levels. Countries: arrangements). capacity. 60% 26 The Nile Basin DSS is a licensed based system. As part of the DSS development contract, NBI has a 150 licenses integrated with the proprietary MIKE modeling software from the consulting firm, DHI. These licenses have been allocated within NBI itself and to Member States including to academic/research institutions. There is demand for additional licenses which can be purchased under an agreement with NBI, with or without the proprietary software. In addition, as part of the development contract, DHI is providing ten years of maintenance and support to the DSS after the expiration of the warranty period. This includes updates and upgrades of the software system as new features are added and new versions are released, bug fixing, and updates of key technical documentation. Outcome 4: Project management Outcome 4 was fully achieved. Throughout the project duration the project team demonstrated sound work planning and budgeting, progress monitoring, financial management and procurement. With the tight time schedule and a fully committed budget, the team delivered the project outputs as required. There was regular engagement with the Bank team and with the Project Steering Committee to review progress and provide guidance. Table 7 Outcome 4 performance indicator, baseline, target and achievement Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Outcome 4 Reflects good Effective and % completion of 70% 95% Fully achieved. project efficient project tasks within Jan-Dec 2012 work management management annual work plan plan was 93 % throughout completed. duration. % execution of 70% 90% Fully achieved. annual budget Jan-Dec 2012 budget was 98% spent. 3.3 Efficiency The efficiency of the project can be viewed as (i) the added value of undertaking the DSS at all; and/or (ii) achieving results disproportionate to expected costs; and /or (iii) achieving the results in a least cost manner (cost effectiveness). (i) The first approach is a valid basis in this project as its inception and implementation was innovative and, in some respects, a “leap of faith� (see section 2.2). Consequently, the efficiency of the project could be viewed as the value of the benefits of better decision-making. Whilst the PAD indicates that the broad benefits of cooperative Nile water management and development cover four key categories (see box 4), quantifying the value of incremental information and dialogue enabled by such information is unrealistic. The WRPM project is noted to generate substantial benefits by providing an analytical framework and tools to support basin wide planning and management of Nile water resources and related assets. Economic benefits derived from the project in the form of comprehensive information base, capacity building and training, analytical tools, and stakeholder involvement, are difficult to quantify in monetary terms. A cost-benefit analysis is not well suited to assess the impacts of technical assistance and capacity building operations such as this operation due to the problems in the quantification of intangibles and issues of attribution, such as estimation of the value of knowledge enhancement. 27 Box 4 Benefits of cooperative water management and development The PAD indicated that the broad benefits of cooperative Nile water management and development fall into four categories:  Environmental benefits derived from integrated river basin management;  Direct economic benefits derived from better basin wide planning and development of water resources;  Regional political benefits, in terms of increased stability and diminished tensions over river control issues;  Indirect economic benefits, in apparently unrelated sectors, that are enabled by increased productivity and interaction, and decreased regional tensions. However, the nature of the decisions that the DSS supports and improves upon is significant, including the options for hydropower development. A minimal 2% reduction in costs (or equal increase in benefits) of one such project could translate into $50 million, which is three times of the value the WRPM project (phase 2) direct costs. (ii) By the second approach, the project achieved high efficiency since it was able to meet (and even exceed) targets by the closing date with full utilization of the budget. Of the phase II grant of US$17.2m, to 31 December 2012 US$17.1m (99%) was spent. (iii) It is difficult to develop rigorous assessments of cost effectiveness because each DSS is different and the capacity building and institution contexts vary significantly. However, the following is worth considering: o Costs compare favorably to the development of (roughly) similar decision support systems in other parts of the world: For example, the Government of Australia has invested US$150million to develop a new set of water modeling tools in the last decade. o The cost of individual consulting assignments to provide the same level of incremental information for each application could, in aggregate exceed the cost of the DSS. Within the WRPMP itself, substitute consulting assignments for a regional pilot application study and a national application study would likely average US$800,000 and US$300,000 respectively, exclusive of the consultative or capacity outputs and benefits. The forgone costs of such assignments, extrapolated to the six regional and eighteen national applications achieved within the WRMP project amounts to about $10 million or 60% of project costs. Extrapolating this with the planned continual use of the DSS at regional and national level in future, indicates that the investment cost of the DSS would soon be recovered. It would take the application of only eight more such regional applications to match project costs completely. Now that the DSS is developed, implemented and embedded in numerous decision-making institutions (e.g., Ministries of water), it is expected that this extension is not unreasonable and possibly an underestimate of the cost of more complex modeling required as countries investigate increasingly more complex projects and water management situations, such as climate change. o The capacity and tools enabled by the project provides the NBI and its Member States with a planning tool to identify, optimize and maximize transboundary water resources management and development investments which could amount to tens of billions of dollars. In addition 28 the capability of the NB DSS to integrate climate change predictions will support the basin countries in their decision making on climate smart investments. 3.4 Justification of Overall Outcome Rating Rating: Satisfactory The outcome rating for the WRPMP is satisfactory based on its high relevance for the NBI and the member countries, the achievement the objective and outcomes of the project, and the efficiency of implementation. Throughout the duration of the project, the rating has consistently been satisfactory. The final rating of highly satisfactory is justified on the basis of the project results as well as in relation to the comparative performance of the WRPMP to other NBTF projects including those already closed under the SVP. The project concept to establish a DSS for the Nile Basin was sound (if ambitious at the time), data and information was accessed from across all the basin countries for the first time, and this provided the basis for exploring understanding and developing different scenarios at basin and sub-basin as well as at national levels. Whilst the project supported the development of the DSS and built capacity for its use, the test of its sustainability is still to come. All indications are that the likelihood of sustainability is good. 3.5 Overarching Themes, Other Outcomes and Impacts (a) Poverty Impacts, Gender Aspects, and Social Development Development of sound water resources policies, as well as the identification, planning, and management of sustainable water-related projects, has significant social and poverty alleviation implications in the Nile Basin. It is important that regional development projects and activities reflect social concerns, reinforce cultural and social values, and conserve and protect the environment. The WRPM project supported regional dialogue and the development of common tools to explore alternative development paths from regional and sub-regional perspectives, thereby contributed to sustainable land and resources management and poverty reduction. The project also developed common approaches, as well as improving the information needed, to assess the social and environmental impacts of future NBI and related projects. The project itself, because of its focus on building capacity and technical tools, had limited opportunities for employment, income generation and poverty reduction. Similarly, it did not have any direct adverse social impacts. (b) Institutional Change/Strengthening As indicated in section 2.5, the impact on long term capacity and institutional development has been positive, and was mainstreamed throughout the project at basin, sub-basin and national levels. (c) Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts (positive or negative)  WRPMP strengthened cross-NBI collaboration on cooperative management and development issues and learning. Due to the nature of WRPMP engaging across NBI, the project built collaboration on DSS issues and applications among the NBI Centers and with other project teams. This helped to integrate project outcomes (eg ENPM models, RATP agricultural model) bringing enhanced benefit and value for money.  As a first of its kind, the development of the DSS has generated much opportunity and interest in learning for application in other basins in the region and beyond. 3.6 Summary of Findings of Beneficiary Survey and/or Stakeholder Workshops n/a 29 4. Assessment of Risk to Development Outcome Rating: Substantial Risks to the future sustainability of project outcomes have been thoroughly explored by the project team and were taken into account during the last year. Assessment of the risks and mitigation measures includes: a) Lack of technical acceptance of the DSS as a common platform. All indications are that all member states appreciate and accept the technical quality of the DSS, noting their involvement in its development and the engagement of national staff. There may be concerns about data quality but these can be addressed as deficiencies are identified and data exchange continues. b) Lack of acceptance of the results of application of the DSS in future. Countries have been engaged in scoping and deciding cases for application of the DSS to address issues and challenges in the Nile Basin as part of the development of the work plan for the Nile Secretariat’s WRM Department. Compelling information to inform understanding will be generated, including the economic, social and environmental implications. International experts will support identification of key issues for analysis. c) Inadequate usage of the DSS by the SAPs. Both SAPs have plans for the DSS in relation to identification and planning of project opportunities. Capacity is considered to be good in NELSAP- CU and ENTRO to effectively utilize the DSS. d) National sustainability is poor in some countries. Based on assessments at the end of the project it is anticipated that two member states may struggle to fully utilize and gain benefits from the DSS. The WRM Department at the Secretariat will periodically monitor sustainability, encourage utilization of the DSS Help Desk and engagement with the network of users, and promote linkages with the SAPs to build capacity as part of specific project development. e) Inadequate resources for continual updating. The DSS tools and data will need to be continually updated and developed to respond and remain relevant to user needs, the cooperation environment, and demand for public access. This will require human and financial resources. f) New data is not forthcoming by member states. The NileSEC will promote the full implementation of the Interim Procedures for Data & Information Sharing and Exchange. In the short term, it is expected that member states will avail data as required in relation to project identification and development needs. g) Inadequate financing for DSS application in the NileSEC and SAPs. In the short term, the financing is assured by the new NBTF/CIWA NCORE project. In the medium term, increasing member state contributions will cover the cost of minimum functionality. It is also expected that the NBI will attract financing from organizations wishing to undertake analysis such as for climate change studies. h) Loss of NileSEC WRM Department core staff. The transition arrangements beyond WRPMP were well-planned and already effective prior to closure, particularly with the transfer of the WRPMP Lead DSS Specialist to be the Head of the WRM Unit at NileSEC. In the medium-term, capacity will be institutionalized and broadened within the NileSEC to ensure continuity should staff leave. In addition, the introduction of the new NBI human resources policy and a new salary and benefits scale should help to ensure NBI is competitive in the regional market. 30 5. Assessment of Bank and Borrower Performance 5.1 Bank Performance (a) Bank Performance in Ensuring Quality at Entry Rating: Satisfactory The Bank performance during design and preparation of the project is rated as satisfactory. The Bank team had expertise and experience in preparing the project and had very good relations with the NBI. The Bank’s knowledge of major international basins and previous operations in the Nile Basin were used well to shape the design with a logical flow of outputs to outcome to objective and appropriate components. (b) Quality of Supervision Rating: Satisfactory The Bank performance during supervision is rated as Satisfactory. Regular implementation support missions were undertaken as well as joining specific key workshops such as on DSS sustainability. The Bank team was supportive and encouraging, providing guidance and identifying issues for further attention by the project team and helping to problem solve. An example was the support provided to the WRPMP team and the NileSEC to develop a paper on mainstreaming the DSS into the NileSEC WRM Unit which was approved by NileTAC. In addition, the Bank hired technical specialists to support the project team including DSS and software experts for advice on climate change scenarios and datasets, review of Work Package 2 pilot application results, review of cost benefit analysis tool, feedback on technical policy documents, review of maintenance and support plan, and advice on intellectual property issues related to future software development. Fiduciary responsibilities were effectively carried out, with constructive support from the Bank country office for financial management and procurement. Briefings on review findings were provided by the TTL to the Project Steering Committee as part of the annual meeting. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Bank Performance Rating: Satisfactory The overall rating for Bank performance is assessed to be satisfactory. Supervision was considered to be appropriate, proactive and supportive. 5.2 Borrower Performance (a) Government Performance Rating: Moderately Satisfactory For the purposes of the ICR, since WRPMP was a project under the Nile Basin Initiative - a partnership by the governments of ten countries - the ‘government’ is taken to mean the NBI member countries as represented by the Nile Technical Advisory Committee (NileTAC) and the Project Steering Committee, (PSC) both with representation from all member states. The overarching issue reflecting government performance was the freeze in participation by two Member States in 2010. Egypt and Sudan no longer engaged in regional project activities such as Project Steering Committee meetings and DSS technical trainings. However engagement was maintained at the national level including with the project funded staff within the host ministry. The NBI overall performed satisfactorily in supporting the WRPM project, including review and approval of key documents (e.g. the data and information sharing protocol and the DSS sustainability plan). The NileTAC also responded to requests from the WRPMP team for release of required data under the agreed interim procedures. Some decisions could have been swifter such as agreement of the functionality and staffing of the WRM Unit at the NileSEC as the long term institutional host for the DSS. The PSC was well chaired by Ethiopia as the host country and had largely consistent representation from the member states which brought good continuity. 31 (b) Implementing Agency or Agencies Performance Rating: Highly Satisfactory The implementing agency was the Project Management Unit in Addis Ababa, led by the Regional Project Manager with an expert professional technical team. Performance of the PMU is assessed to be highly satisfactory. This is based on the full achievement of the projects objective within budget and on time, whilst managing the most institutionally complex project in NBIs portfolio. The PMU worked with the three NBI Centers and with the MoWR in nine countries, with over fifty professional staff employed throughout the basin as well as support staff. The WRPM project had strong financial management and procurement, with 99% of the budget spent on completion of the project. The WRPM project was the most technically demanding project in NBIs portfolio. The in-house team achieved the design and delivery of DSS with full functionality on time and to cost. This was a substantial achievement due to the commitment and dedication of the core team. Through building good working relations with DHI, the consulting organization who developed the DSS, the WRPM team was able to proactively manage problems and slippage by addressing design & functionality problems together. The Panel of Experts reported that ‘The management team has demonstrated exceptional professionalism, both with respect to the technical as well as the contractual and management aspects of the DSS development. (c) Justification of Rating for Overall Borrower Performance Rating: Satisfactory The overall rating of the NBIs performance is satisfactory. This reflects the achievement of the projects objective and its full expenditure. The NBI and project staff was very appreciative of WRPMP and what it had enabled them to achieve, underpinning the analytical capability of the NBI and its member states. There is now considerable momentum and enthusiasm to take the DSS to the next stage of its application to inform decision making for cooperative management and development. 6. Lessons Learned A number of lessons emerge from the WRPMP related to: project rationale; DSS development; sustainability. These have been developed with input from the Bank’s global analysis; specific questions from similar projects in preparation in Bank; and from Bank/NBI teams and experts involved in Nile. Project rationale (i) A decision support system stimulates more rigorous water management. The project was conceived and designed on the assumption that countries need to have a commonly accepted knowledge base and analytical tools to enable improved understanding and informed discussions about water resources management and development opportunities, challenges and trade-offs. This builds trust and confidence, breaks myths through sound analysis and information, and forms the technical knowledge platform for advancing cooperation. The experience of the WRPMP supports this view – that, in building the DSS, latent demand for better knowledge and understanding has emerged, as indicated by the early application and uptake by functional units in participating countries. (ii) A DSS stimulates cooperation by reducing the risks. This existence of this latent demand as a core feature of transboundary water management was identified in a recent World Bank global 32 study.24 Specifically, access to the same information and tools helps to level the playing field and to ensure all the countries are confident in making decisions. Particularly across a basin with many riparians such as the Nile Basin, a wide disparity in capacity can be expected and needs to be proactively addressed, with additional support where required. In fact, the global study identifies “Knowledge and Skills� as the appropriate strategy to reduce three of the five core risks of cooperation for individual countries, namely: (i) accountability and voice (the risk of not having a say in decision-making in the governing structure of any regional entity); (ii) equity and access (the risk of entering into an unfavorable distribution of benefits including timing of benefits and costs and obtaining/retaining fair access to river resources; and (iii) capacity and knowledge (confidence in the ability to negotiate a fair deal due to lack of enough an correct information). Capacity and knowledge is linked to a fourth risk, namely the ability to act in the best interest of the country without constraints, making decisions independently (sovereignty and autonomy). (iii) The benefits of a DSS take time to emerge. Whilst over ten years since its inception, the Nile Basin Initiative through the WRPM project has just achieved this analytical capacity and has completed some useful transboundary case studies, it is recognized as only the start. It is the application of the DSS over the next few years that are expected to reap the substantial benefits for cooperative management and development of the Nile Basin. (iv) The risk of a “hermit DSS� can be mitigated by connecting the analysis to the diplomatic/political agenda. As a highly technical exercise by specialists, the development of a DSS runs the risk of being isolated and separated from its rationale. To avoid this, development of the DSS was a highly participatory process involving the riparian countries and in particular a key design feature of the project was to support capacity building for DSS use at a national level. This aimed to ensure understanding as well as relevance of the DSS to riparian issues. At the regional level, the NBI was engaged in identifying and developing some key pilot applications to highlight pertinent water management and development issues. This demonstrated the capability of the DSS for analysis of complex issues, comparison of scenarios and optimization on specific parameters. In this way, the DSS retained its relevance despite the long development period and its highly technical nature. Post WRPMP, a recent consultation with the NileTAC has identified a range of key issues for analysis to build understanding of the basin hydrology, and the management and development opportunities, challenges and trade-offs. This helps to provide a sound technical basis for broader political discussions on water related issues. (v) Providing public access accelerates and broadens the benefits – and hence rationale – for the core DSS. Public access to the tools and data is important to spread and maximize knowledge and understanding across the basin beyond the riparian governments. Partly due to the fledging status of cooperation at the time of the projects’ conception, and partly due to the limited capacity and access to technology at the time, the WRPMP did not aim to develop the DSS as a public domain tool. Its use is restricted to license holders only, registered by the NBI. With the rapid increase in access to technology and the internet as well as the growing capability for analysis, options for greater public access are now being considered. 24 Subramanian, Brown, and Wolf (2012), Reaching Across Waters; Facing the Risks of Cooperation in International Waters. World Bank Water Papers 33 Project implementation The development of the DSS is a complex undertaking technically and politically. Lessons from WRPMP are: (vi) The business process for water resources decision making is at once an important starting condition but also a product of the project itself. Linkages to the decision-making officials for water management provide a clear guide for DSS development. It should be visible at the outset. When the WRPM project was initially envisaged in 2000, although the NBI had been formed it was clearly a transitional mechanism with a mandate for managing projects and programs. Now, over 12 years later and still transitional, greater trust and confidence has been built among member countries, NBI has gained more acceptance and has better defined its core functions (partly as a result of the DSS). As a consequence the business process for decision making is much clearer. If the business process cannot be identified early, a substantial judgment call is required to commit the required funding in advance of this clarity. (vii) A participatory process is a core ingredient in success. Development of the DSS as a participatory process enabled technical interaction across all of the Nile Basin countries for the first time. This included development of data and information sharing protocols, use of the DSS tools, and development of the test applications at regional and national levels. This was critical to ensuring: (a) trust in the DSS; (b) DSS design that meets the needs and priorities of all countries; (c) capacity in all participating countries; and (d) early demonstrations and institutional development to support long term sustainability. (viii) Developing data and information sharing protocols is critical and can be helped by global public data sets and development of the DSS itself. At the start of WRPMP in 2005, the NBI countries did not have a data sharing arrangement and there was little indication that this would occur during the life of the project. The project team started data collection on an incremental basis, gaining data from public domain sources such as published studies. In recognition of the need for a formal arrangement, NileCOM instructed the NBI to prepare a protocol for data sharing, which was followed by operational guidelines. In parallel to the formal arrangements, the project team was proactive in accessing the required data for the testing of successive DSS releases, resulting in substantial sharing of data from all of the basin countries. This is viewed as a clear indication of the growing trust and confidence, as well as the commitment, to Nile cooperation by the riparians. This needs to be further strengthened in the future to make more of these data public domain. (ix) Development of a DSS and the required capacity to sustain its application requires substantial financial and human resources, and time – especially if it is to be based on consensus. For example, the conception of the need for a DSS was agreed in 2000, the project was designed with effectiveness achieved in 2005 and completion in 2012 – in total 12 years - with an overall project budget of US$24 million. Similarly for data sharing, the NileCOM requested the development of a protocol in May 2006, it was approved protocols in July 2009, and then operational guidelines approved in in July 2011. (x) The Bank team brings significant technical support and encouragement. It thus requires adequate long term resources, appropriate team skills-mix, and attention to continuity of staff. There needs to be a better way to draw upon Bank professionals across the Bank for such flagship activities. 34 (xi) Role of the basin professionals compared with international consultants should be carefully considered. The development of the Nile Basin DSS was driven ‘in-house’ by an expert team who proactively managed the international consultants for the development of the DSS with often collaborative problem solving. This was to avoid a final product which had limited ownership, limited understanding of what was in the box, limited capacity and costly outsourcing for any for future development25. (xii) A DSS should be inclusive of the range of development concerns and priorities, adopting a “triple bottom line� scope. Analytical capability should extend beyond hydrology to include environmental, social and economic parameters to be able to most effectively support decision making. This requires the countries to agree on the relevant parameters and relationships such as the economic value of environmental assets. (xiii) The DSS should embed as early as possible in the long term institutional host. Whilst the preparation of the DSS was undertaken by a PMU, the long term host institution is the Nile Basin Initiative Secretariat. With hindsight, it may have been better to have integrated the PMU within the NileSEC from the start, building its capacity as well as credibility as a basin wide knowledge center. Whether a regional host institution is required at the very beginning for the development of a DSS is debatable depending on the basin context. The WRPMP envisaged a regional DSS/knowledge center and originally did not explicitly link this to the NileSEC due to its fledging and interim nature. The primary need is to be adaptable within the context and not to delay DSS development until a perfect host is available. Sustainability The risk of investing such a substantial amount of money and time in the development of a DSS is that to achieve value for money, its continued (and expanded) use, maintenance, and keeping it relevant is essential. Putting conditions into place for such sustainability is a complex challenge in and of itself. (xiv) The development of a DSS should be seen as part of a long term process and one part of the overall engagement with a basin. With the significant effort to develop the DSS, a continued effort (and funding) is needed to ensure its extended application and use across the basin. This cannot always be included in the project scope itself, as with the project duration already six years, it was not considered feasible to further increase the duration to include a final phase focused on application. The institutional setting at both regional and national levels is important for sustainability as is early preparation for project completion. During development of the DSS, demonstration or pilot applications and engaging a wider community (such as academia, public – see v above) are good supplements to ensuring ongoing application as is the use of the DSS in preparing Bank projects. More broadly, DSS development should not be viewed as an isolated activity compared to other aspects of basin engagement. The WRPMP was one of a number of projects supporting NBI and together they made up a comprehensive package of interlinked activities. (xv) A DSS is a living asset that requires ongoing adaptation, refinement and software. Whilst a DSS can be versatile with ‘plug and play’ capability to use other models, in order to keep up to date in a rapidly changing modeling environment, new software for the required interfaces will need to be developed – and hence the institution ideally needs to retain in-house software development capacity. It also requires the institution to have the original software codes. This was addressed for 25 An earlier more basic DSS tool developed for the Nile Basin suffered from all of these problems. 35 the Nile DSS, by building the NBI DSS team capability for software development and placing software codes in the institution as part of the project. 7. Comments on Issues Raised by Grantee/Implementing Agencies/Donors (a) Grantee/Implementing agencies The ICR reflects the NBI’s views as discussed during the final project implementation support mission and documented in the Project Completion Report. (b) Cofinanciers/Donors None. (c) Other partners and stakeholders There is wide spread appreciation of extent of and value of work done under the WRPM project. The achievements, professionalism and hard work of the WRPM project team has been acknowledged by the Project Steering Committee, the Nile TAC, national host institutions, and by the Panel of Experts. Some quotes are: ‘The DSS is a valuable tool for the MoW&E in Ethiopia. We are developing the water resources in this country and it is a challenge due to the regional nature of many of our rivers. The DSS enables us to analyze and evaluate options for WRM & D taking into account the various interests of stakeholders. This enables senior officials to have a sound basis for decision making. I am proud of the NBI project team who are developing the DSS and supporting us to gain the expert capacity to use and sustain it.’ Ato Fekahmed Negash, Director, River Basin Management Directorate, MoW&E, Ethiopia and Chair of the WRPM Project Steering Committee. ‘As a member of the steering committee of the project, I have witnessed the NB DSS evolving into a state of the art analytic framework developed through participation of the Nile riparians. I am pleased to say that the NB DSS is already being taken up as the tool for water resources planning, development and management in Uganda.’ Dr Callist Tindimugaya, Commissioner of Water Resources Regulation and Planning, WRM Directorate, MoW&E, Uganda and WRPM PSC member. ‘As it is today the DSS should serve as a valuable, and state-of-the-art, tool for evaluating alternative water management policies and infrastructure designs, performing trade-off analyses among multiple objectives, and for promoting informed discussions among various planners and policy makers. There is little doubt that the Nile Basin countries can now be better informed of the interdependence of various components of the water resource systems in each country and their impacts in other countries.’ DSS Panel of Experts; Dr Thinus Basson, Professor Peter Loucks, Professor Ezio Todini. ‘It’s been my privilege to have witnessed the building of a DSS for the Nile Basin that is now accepted and being successfully used by multiple stakeholders to achieve a better understanding of the potential hydrologic, economic, environmental, ecologic and social impacts of alternative development, management and water use policies and practices.’ Professor Peter Loucks, member of the POE, Cornell University, USA. 36 Annex 1. Project Costs and Financing (a) Project Cost by Component (in USD Million equivalent) Actual/Latest Appraisal Estimate Percentage of Components Estimate (USD (USD millions) Appraisal millions) Decision Support System 13.771 13.715 99.6 Regional Coordination & Facilitation 3.355 3.328 99.2 Planning & Management 0.094 0.094 100.0 Total Baseline Cost 17.220 17.137 99.5 Physical Contingencies 0.00 0.00 0.00 Price Contingencies 0.00 0.00 0.00 Total Project Costs 0.00 0.00 Project Preparation Costs 0.00 0.00 .00 0.00 0.00 .00 Total Financing Required 0.00 0.00 (b) Financing Appraisal Actual/Latest Type of Percentage of Source of Funds Estimate Estimate Cofinancing Appraisal (USD millions) (USD millions) Trust Funds 0.00 0.00 Nile Basin Initiative Trust Fund 17.220 17.137 99.5 37 Annex 2. Outputs by Component Table 1 original results framework for phase 2 (Source: Project Paper March 2009) Project Development Objective Project Outcome Indicators Use of Project Outcome Information To enhance analytical capacity for a basin  National water policies and strategies  Nile riparian decision makers at national, sub- wide perspective to support the development, improved or initiated based on sound regional, and regional levels have tools necessary to management, and protection of Nile Basin integrated water resources management make informed investment decisions for mutually water resources in an equitable, optimal, (IWRM) and good-practice guidelines in Nile beneficial development in the basin. integrated, and sustainable manner. Basin countries.  Nile riparians prepare and implement multi- country projects based on good practice in project planning and management.  The Nile Basin Decision Support System (DSS) is operational and used by riparians to exchange information, support riparian dialogue, and identify cooperative investment projects. Intermediate Outcomes Intermediate Outcome Indicators Use of Intermediate Outcome Monitoring 1.a Use of the NB DSS commenced to  Provisional version of DSS and IS  By end 2009, substantial portion of information for inform decision-making for investment operational and made available to key IS should already be consolidated at PMU planning and water resources management at stakeholders (government ministries, public  By end 2009, PMU should have ability to national and regional levels. utilities, other) by end 2010 demonstrate sample applications of the DSS  Final version of Nile Basin DSS and IS  The quality of progress on DSS assessed by operational and made available to public by supervising consultants at a minimum of twice per mid-2012 year  DSS and IS are determined to be useful by countries, as evidenced by a report which each country will produce annually to feed into annual report  confirmed use of the provisional DSS and IS in relevant government ministries by end 2011  Beginning 2011, DSS used to generate outcomes that are presented at key workshops and to prepare reports that are validated for quality by supervising consultants and PoE\  DSS officially released at international conference by end 2012 1.b DSS - related data and information are  Nile Basin data sharing procedures drafted,  Nile Basin data sharing procedures developed (by shared in active and ongoing fashion among agreed upon, and ratified by riparian end 2009), formally adopted by PSC (by end 2011) key stakeholders (NBI, riparian government governments. and lobbying for national government ratification in ministries, others). 2011-2012  Confirmation that DSS-related data are shared on a routine and ongoing basis; data from countries are updated at least twice per year  Should data sharing procedures stall, other avenues such as remote sensing should be explored as a means to generating needed data 1.c Sustained Capacity for DSS  DSS used to identify and prepare SAP  SAPs and NBI-SEC make use of DSS development, management and application. investments  Evidence of information exchange between WRPM and other projects; ongoing information transfer a plus 2.a Sustained capacity to oversee and  Sufficient human resources are secured in a  # Long- and # short-term trainings provided to manage complex regional projects sustainable manner and equipped with riparians to support DSS development and demonstrated by Nile-TAC,WRPM PSC, training needed to manage, apply and application; evaluation to confirm training NBI Secretariat, and WRPM PMU Staff. improve the DSS in a continuous fashion. utility/applicability  Action Plan and Policy for sustainable human  Electronic and hard copies of training materials resources management containing a made available to NBI and other stakeholders succession plan  Confirmed training effectiveness determined through validation of quality of reports produced by those trained  The level of human resources is deep enough to effectively handle duties of managing, updating, publicizing DSS 38 Table 2 revised results framework (January 2011) including baseline and targets, with assessment against final targets Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Project Development Objective To enhance analytical Level of WRPM Phase Level of Fully achieved. Project exceeded capacity for a basin effectiveness of 1 completed, effectiveness Assessed: expectations. wide perspective to DSS operation in with regional is: - high in Nile-SEC, Objective support the 3 NBI Centers and national - high in 3 NELSAP and recognized as development, and in 9 member DSS units NBI Centers ENTRO. ambitious in management, and countries established - high in 4 - high in 5 relation to Nile protection of Nile (rated as high, and countries countries: Egypt, context and Basin water resources medium, low undertaking - medium in 2 Ethiopia, Uganda, technical in an equitable, based on standard training on countries Kenya, Sudan requirements. optimal, integrated, criteria assessed DSS. - medium in 2 and sustainable periodically by Low levels of countries; manner. project team). effectiveness Tanzania, Burundi throughout. - low in 2 countries; DRC, Rwanda Outcome 1 NB DSS applied on Number of project 0 16 national Fully achieved. A good result. selected key water cases on which 6 regional 18 national project Pilot cases were resources the Nile DSS is cases prepared, 5 the basis for planning/management successfully requiring additional assessment of projects in the Nile applied. guidance. national capacity Basin (regional and 7 regional project hence of national) and results cases prepared. sustainability. used to inform decision making Outcome 2 Percent of data Relevant data and required for DSS 30% 70% Exceeded target. Significant information are shared use received by 85% data received. achievement in context of WRPM project historic lack of from countries. data sharing. Status of Interim Interim Countries are Fully achieved. Significant Procedures for Procedures moving Interim Procedures achievement in Data Sharing and for Data towards the were approved by context of operationaliz NileCOM and are historic lack of Operational Sharing ation of the in use to gain data data sharing. Guidelines approved interim needed for DSS. procedure Outcome 3 Appropriate Percent of 0% Nile-SEC: Fully achieved. Transition to institutional, technical arrangements in 100% Nile-SEC: 100% Nile-SEC and financial place and ENTRO: ENTRO: 100% excellent. SAPs arrangements for operational at 100% NELSAP-CU: keen to fully sustained DSS regional, sub- NELSAP- 100% utilize DSS. operational use. regional, and CU: 100% Countries: 75% (7 Countries now to national levels. Countries: out of 9 with good consolidate 39 Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 60% arrangements). capacity. Outcome 4 Reflects good Effective and efficient 70% 95% Fully achieved. project project management. % completion of Jan-Dec 2012 work management plan was 93 % throughout tasks within completed. duration. annual work plan % execution of 70% 90% Fully achieved. annual budget Jan-Dec 2012 budget was 98% spent. Output 1.1 % DSS (software) 0 100% 95% A significant Nile Basin DSS completed to Near full achievement to developed. design functionality. meet the requirements on specification Minor aspects not time & on cost. [Work Package 1] completed. % software testing 0 100% 100% completed [Work Fully satisfactory. Package 2] Output 1.2 Percent of core 9 National 90% 90% team of riparian DSS Majority of staff Institutional setup to experts Specialists retained. Some turn support DSS maintained in 9 National over requiring development National DSS IT/DB/GIS induction and maintained Units in all NBI Specialists accelerated countries. 18 training. counterpart staff Percent core team 9 WRPMP 30% 90% WRPM maintained within key staff Staff drawn Key staff remained benefited from a WRPM project as down from to the end of the well selected professional regional DSS October project to team who Centre. 2012. maximize handover demonstrated and learning. significant commitment. Output 1.3 Number of 0 Final release: 9 national training The commitment Capacity for DSS training 7 training on release-3 in to training across application workshops sessions 2012 and one the 9 countries strengthened in was substantial. completed on Cumulative regional training. National DSS Units & host institutions. successive DSS total training 18 cumulative releases. sessions: 20 training sessions for phase-II. Number of MSc 8 18 18 professionals degrees got their M.Sc. successfully completed 40 Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 Output 2.1 Percent DSS-IMS: 100% 100% Good success. Data and information completion of 0% DSS-IMS fully Underpins management systems DSS Information Nile-IS: 0% integrated. knowledge in place management in Management Nile-IS developed NBI. System (DSS- and handed over to IMS) and Nile Nile-SEC as Information planned for System (Nile-IS) operational use. Output 2.2 Percent of data 0% 100% 100% Quality assured data quality assured processed in DSS Significant task to and processed check and gap fill data. Output 2.3 Status of Does not Proposal for Document has been Excellent Long term river basin document exist implementati approved by Nile- achievement. monitoring strategy Informed State developed and on approved TAC and translated of Basin approved by TAC. into proposal for reporting. implementation. Output 3.1 Status of No 90% 90% Advance work Sustainability plan sustainability plan sustainability implementati Good completed to defining minimum development and plan. on of pre implementation. support NileSEC platform of implementation 2013 plan Developed priority from 2013. requirements including guidelines for DSS developed and handover to use. implemented. Nile-SEC. Number of 0 9 MOU Not completed as To be completed national plans signed decided MOU and in early 2013. agreed and related sub-license MOU signed with agreements should host institutions. be signed by NileSEC as future DSS host with countries. Output 3.2 Number of 0 14 national 9 national NileSEC Awareness of DSS at awareness awareness workshops and 1 awareness key agencies in NBI workshops held workshops regional. DSS was survey gave countries and NBI 2 regional launched during good results for institutions awareness the Nile-COM DSS awareness. workshops meeting in July 2012. Number of 0 4 products 3 brochures Awareness targeted disseminated targeting technical raising to communications professionals, continue next decision makers & year under products Development NileSEC disseminated Partners developed and circulated. Two booklets and one technical note developed. Video clip on the DSS 41 Expected Results Performance Base year Final target Achievement WB comments Indicators April 2009 Dec 31, 2012 Dec 31, 2012 prepared. Output 3.3 Number of No All license All agreements are To be completed DSS License agreements agreements agreements ready but not yet in early 2013. agreements in place signed: signed. WRPMP with DHI, NileSEC as new successfully with regional DSS host negotiated with 9 host will sign on behalf DHI to ensure institutions, of NBI with DHI adherence to and with at and the host contract for least 9 institutions. provision of academic source code. institutions. Output 4.1 Number of 0 7 countries 7 missions in late Project management satisfactory per year 2011. 2 review and coordination supervision 2 WB per missions from mechanisms missions; year World Bank. functioning satisfactorily. - PMU to National DSS Units. - World Bank to PMU. Number of 1 per year 2 meetings in 1 ordinary PSC Overall good successful PSC 2012 (1 meeting conducted support from the meetings annual, 1 in Feb 2012. PSC. This (assessed by PSC extra ordinary Regular benefited from member for project consultation with having some Nile TAC feedback) close) PSC Chair and members. through Nile TAC. Percent No plan 90% 90% Well managed – completion of completion of Closure plan fully planned early in plans for project plan (excl. implemented on agreement with closure. final audit). time. Remainder UNOPS and to be completed by adhered to plan. UNOPS over the grace period (January-March 2013). Output 4.2 % implementation General 90% 100% An important Integration with NBI of agreed targeted support implementati New team in result as essential Secretariat support for key ongoing but on of agreed NileSEC for sustainability. strengthened in established. Work tasks related to not targeted support. plan agreed & preparation for WRPM WRM Unit to integration. implemented. project closure. functionality. Handover with WRPMP completed. 42 Annex 3. Economic and Financial Analysis n/a Annex 4. Grant Preparation and Implementation Support/Supervision Processes (a) Task Team members Names Title Unit Grant Preparation John Bryant Collier Operations Officer AFTN3 Barbara A. Miller Lead Water Resource Management AFTWR Clare Barrington Senior Water Resources Specialist AFTN2 Thembi Malena Kumapley Program Assistant AFTSW Jonathan Lautze Consultant AFTWR Barbara A. Miller Lead Water Resource Management AFTWR Maria Antonieta Podesta Mevius Human Resources Analyst HRSYP Zaure Schwade Resource Management Analyst HDNOP Larry D. Simpson Consultant C3PDR Suzan Tack Junior Professional Associate AFTWR Brooke Yamakoshi Operations Analyst AFTWR Supervision/ICR Barbara A. Miller Lead Water Resource Management AFTWR Clare Barrington Senior Water Resources Specialist AFTN2 JB Collier Operations Officer AFTN3 Brooke Yamakoshi Operations Analyst AFTWR Michael Okuny Financial Management Specialist AFTME Meron Tadesse Techane FM Specialist AFTME Richard Olowo Lead Procurement Specialist AFTPE Binyam Bedelu Procurement Specialist AFTPE Zaure Schwade Resource Management Analyst HDNOP Kenneth Strzepek Consultant - DSS AFTWR Hilliard Scott Consultant - software AFTWR (b) Staff Time and Cost26 Staff Time and Cost (Bank Budget Only) Stage of Project Cycle USD Thousands (including No. of staff weeks travel and consultant costs) Lending Total: 0 0.00 Supervision/ICR Total: 3 57.545 26 Please note: majority of project supervision and financing costs were funded through trust funds and staff secondment. 43 Annex 5. Beneficiary Survey Results n/a Annex 6. Stakeholder Workshop Report and Results n/a 44 Annex 7. Summary of Grantee's ICR Water Resources Planning & Management Project (Phase 2) NBI Project Completion Report - Executive Summary The WRPM project context The Nile riparians launched in 1997 the process for the establishment of a permanent legal and institutional framework for the cooperation on the Nile. The extensive consultation and negotiation processes that were undertaken led to the recognition of the importance of accurate data, information and commonly shared analytical tools as a means of providing sound technical basis for joint decision making at regional and sub-regional levels. Such common analytic tools didn’t exist when the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was launched; the countries did not share data and information. The prevalent asymmetry in information and capacity of riparian technicians among NBI countries needed appropriately tailored capacity building program. Therefore, Water Resources Planning and Management (WRPMP) project was designed to fill the gaps in analytic capacity (tools, databases, and trained personnel) for the identification and planning of multi- country water resources management and development projects. The WRPMP was one of the eight projects under the Shared Vision Program. The project was officially launched in January 2006 and executed in two phases; Phase I was completed in April 2009 and phase II ran from May 2009 to December 2012. The Nile Basin Trust Fund (administered by the World Bank) funded both phases with a total of USD24.0 million. NBI member country in-kind contributions estimated as USD2.6 million. Achievement of the Project Development Objective (PDO) The PDO was to enhance analytical capacity for a basin wide perspective to support the development, management, and protection of Nile Basin water resources in an equitable, optimal, integrated, and sustainable manner. The Nile Basin Decision Support System (NB DSS) is the major output of the WRPMP Phase II. The DSS has been developed as a state of the art comprehensive software (analytic) framework designed to meet the needs of complex water resources planning and management in multi- stakeholder, multi-country settings. The DSS offers the Nile Basin countries with the data and toolset for information management, modeling, scenario analysis, and multi-criteria decision making in water resources. With NB DSS, for the first time in the Nile Basin, the riparians now have a common analytic framework they can use to jointly develop and manage their shared water resources of the Nile Basin; one of the pre-requisites for joint water resources planning in a transboundary context. Using the DSS, the riparians can explore possible future water resources development and management scenarios, quantify possible impacts and benefits from alternative water resources development and management plans, evaluate tradeoffs, determine optimal configuration of future plans that result in win-win development and management paths. With the DSS, the riparians have an objective basis for integrating environmental and socio-economic objectives in their water resources plans and a rational basis for joint decision making. The DSS provides the riparians a framework which can be used to exchange information among the NBI countries and thereby enhance joint and collaborative water resources analysis. 45 The Nile Basin Decision Support System The NB DSS is the first of its kind – not only in the Nile Basin but also worldwide. It is a comprehensive software framework designed to meet the requirements of complex water resources planning. It provides diverse toolsets for data processing, water resources modeling, scenario management, optimization and multi-criteria decision making. It offers tools for integrating environmental, social and economic objectives thus greatly facilitating multi-sector water resources planning at small catchment and river basin levels. The NB DSS integrates data management, GIS, modeling and scenario analysis, as well as optimization and multi- criteria decision making toolset. With its flexible software framework and open architecture, it can be extended to add new functionalities and modeling tools to meet emerging needs without major change to the program code. This enhances sustainability of the DSS in that it can be expanded to meet emerging requirements. Through early applications of the DSS at both national and transboundary levels, the DSS has already started providing valuable insights that enhanced common understanding of the water resources base of the Nile Basin. Models and data from NB DSS have been used in the Nile Equatorial Lakes Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunity Analysis (MSIOA) and to support the preparation of the Eastern Nile Joint Multipurpose Program of the Eastern Nile. The national applications of the DSS have demonstrated that the DSS shall be a great asset also for water resources planning at national level. The WRPM project led the development of the Nile Basin Data and Information Sharing and Exchange Interim Procedures, which was endorsed by the Nile-COM. This is the first time Nile Basin countries agreed on a data sharing arrangements. Nearly all data needed for testing and applying the DSS was provided by the riparian countries through the data sharing agreement. Through the WRPM project, NBI countries have also agreed on a strategy for strengthening river basin monitoring. Core technical capacity has been built in all riparian countries that the countries can draw on to make use of the DSS both at national level as well as at transboundary level. As a result, a nascent team of technical professionals have been created that applied the DSS on a number of national pilot cases. Thus, the DSS development has helped in forming a community of technical professionals around NB DSS. During the consolidation phase of the project, the DSS has been transferred to the Water Resources Management Department at the NBI Secretariat (NileSEC), which has built a core technical capacity to administer the DSS, apply the tool and support DSS users at basin-wide. Necessary arrangements have been put in place in each national ministry of water affairs for running the DSS to address practical water resources problems from national as well as transboundary perspectives. Sustainability of the DSS beyond its development stage is ensured at regional level and in many of the riparian countries. Through the newly launched NBTF/CIWA funded Nile Cooperation for Results (NCORE) project, the NileSEC has budgeted specific activities to maintain the DSS and support its applications at regional and national levels. Preparations are underway to form a DSS user community to sustain and further nurture the capacities built through the DSS development process. 46 Achievement of outcomes The project achieved all the four expected outcomes: Outcome 1: Nile Basin DSS applied on selected key water resources planning/management projects in the Nile Basin and results used to inform decision making The Nile Basin Decision Support System is now operational at regional, sub-regional and national levels. The DSS was officially inaugurated as the common Nile Basin countries analytic framework by the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM) in July 2012. All necessary license, warranty, maintenance and support arrangements have been put in place; the DSS has a no-cost maintenance and support agreement with the developer until 2023 – thereby greatly enhancing its’ sustainability without financial burden on the NBI countries. The DSS has been applied on 7 transboundary and 18 national pilot application cases. The primary objective of these pilot applications was to test the DSS as well as to demonstrate use of the DSS for solving practical water resources problems, build capacity for using NB DSS, and enhance awareness among senior officials on the value of the DSS. For example, the Integrated Assessment Pilot Case which covered the entire Nile Basin aimed to assess the potential implications of unilateral development in the Nile Basin. The current (baseline) and six possible future scenarios were analyzed, reflecting how the Nile Basin water resources development might evolve and its potential implications. This included 27 proposed dams, 13 new irrigation schemes and a number of hydropower plants and, in this regard, covered most of the key water infrastructure development planned for future. The implications were estimated using the indicators that were agreed with stakeholders. The overall messages for decision makers were clearly drawn out; the economic impacts associated with the full development of the Nile Basin in terms of hydropower and irrigation are mainly as a result of consumptive water use, changed flow regimes and increased losses due to operating rules. Average annual flows along the lower Atbara and Blue Nile rivers will be significantly reduced, as will the inflow into Aswan Dam. The fully developed basin will also result in significant social and environmental impacts related to loss in recession agriculture, less fish production, reduction in wetland areas and increased ecological stress. Irrigation expansion upstream of Lake Victoria as an alternative to further irrigation expansion in the lower Main Nile and/or Blue Nile catchments holds significant potential in terms of water efficiency, and also has negligible impacts along the White Nile and Main Nile rivers. The most significant negative impacts associated with irrigation expansion in the Lake Victoria Basin, relate to the anticipated decrease in the area of the Sudd Wetland. The DSS has also been used to support investment planning at a sub basin level by the two NBI Subsidiary Action Program offices, NELSAP-CU and ENTRO. The quality assured datasets and models from NB DSS were used in the Multi-Sectoral Investment Opportunities Analysis by NELSAP-CU to inform investment strategy development. NB DSS, due to its flexibility, is already serving as the analytic platform to which the Agriculture Model developed by the Regional Agriculture Trade Project has been integrated. In addition, the DSS has been applied on more than 18 national cases to demonstrate its value and explore water resources management and development opportunities – both within the Nile Basin and in other basins. These include water resources development for hydropower in the Kagunuzi sub-basin in Burundi, a multi- purpose reservoir on the Ndembera river in the Rufiji Basin in Tanzania and impacts of climate change on the inflow to the High Aswan Dam in Egypt. Over ten workshops have been conducted at regional and national levels to present results of applying the NB DSS on regional and national projects to the key policy/decision makers in the Nile Basin. The Nile Basin countries are now equipped with their jointly developed analytic framework with substantial knowledge base vital for transboundary Water Resources planning and management benefiting from the WRPMP’s products. 47 Outcome 2: Relevant data and information are shared By the time the WRPM project started, there were four main challenges with respect to data needed for testing and application of NB DSS. First, NBI didn’t have any substantial compiled datasets with which the project could start. Second, there was no agreed mechanism for accessing data available within NBI member states. Third, ground observation (hydro-meterological) data was not available for some parts of the basin; in some countries, such as Rwanda and South Sudan, many of the ground observation stations were not operational. Fourth, the data from various countries had varying quality with data from certain regions exhibiting lots of breaks in the records. Therefore, the WRPM project focused its activities along all the four fronts. The WRPM project led the development of the Nile Basin Data and Information Sharing and Exchange Interim Procedures, which was endorsed by the Nile-COM. This is the first time Nile Basin countries agreed on a data sharing arrangements. Nearly all data needed for testing and applying the DSS was provided by the riparian countries through the data sharing agreement. Through the WRPM project, NBI countries have also agreed on a strategy for strengthening river basin monitoring. The project compiled 40 years of quality assured datasets based on the data shared by NBI member countries. In addition, a considerable volume of data has been compiled and processed to support testing and application of the DSS. The WRPM project has also developed a guidelines for data quality & data assurance to serve the NBI countries. All these data and information produced through DSS application have been made available to all NBI countries and NBI programs. Outcome 3: Appropriate institutional, technical and financial arrangements for sustained DSS operational use Nile Basin DSS is a flexible analytic framework that can cater for needs of water resources planning and management at different scales. In this regard, developing the DSS was not an end by itself. Ensuring sustainability of the analytic framework and its operational use was vital for the future of water resources development and management in the Nile Basin. The WRPM project put the DSS in good footing with respect to its sustainability. Well in advance of project completion, the project prepared a well thought out DSS sustainability plan that was approved by NBI governance. Sustainability was agreed to focus on maintaining the analytic framework (with the necessary technical support) and the practical use of the system to address water resources issues in the Nile Basin. Guided by a well thought out plan for sustaining the DSS, the WRPMP put in place the necessary arrangements to sustain the DSS beyond project completion. It was agreed with the governance that the primary responsibility for maintaining and administering the DSS should lie with the NBI Secretariat while the system should be used at national, sub-regional and regional levels. Thus, sustainability requirements at three levels differed commensurate to the primary focus at each level. The Nile-Sec, being responsible for maintaining, administering and applying the DSS had the biggest requirements for sustaining the DSS. NBI centers at sub regional level and national institutions focus primarily on applying the DSS and largely have the necessary technical and financial resources to support the operational application of the DSS. At the regional level, the DSS has been transferred to the NBI Secretariat where under the WRM Department, a regional DSS unit has started operation to administer, maintain, apply and further develop the DSS as new requirements emerge. A system of national and regional DSS networks was established in all NBI countries and received technical training on application of NB DSS to water resources problems. Under the new NBI five year program, NBI has allocated funding for 48 establishing DSS help desk, providing technical training and backstopping and support users basin-wide. The DSS is deployed in all NBI countries and the two SAPs with the support of the NileSEC. Using a combination of technical, institutional and financial aspects, the sustainability of the DSS has been rated as high in all NBI Centers. Seven out of nine NBI countries have been rated as medium to high in the sustainability rating scale. This was a good result considering the wide differences in capacity. Some limited support will be available in future to continue supporting application of the DSS at a national level and as opportunities arise, linkages with the SAPs for DSS application on specific projects will be developed. Outcome 4: Effective and efficient project management The Water Resources Planning and Management project was the most technically complex and institutionally challenging project of all the NBI Shared Vision Program hence had significant management challenges. It successfully completed the development of a state of the art decision support system under complex institutional setup, at times, in very sensitive transboundary cooperation environment. The project management was proactive in taking the appropriate actions to avoid or reduce risks/challenges faced by the project. The project has been completed on time and to budget achieving all its expected outcomes. The project kept the key stakeholders, particulalry the Steering Committee, fully involved in the project through regular and extra- ordinary Steering Committee meetings and regular monthly, quarterly, semi-annaul and annual reports as well as ad-hoc reports. The project also conducted annual review mission to the NBI countries to identify the challenges and problems in the implementation of the project activities at national level and take the necessary action to resolve the problms in consultation with the Steering Committee member and Technical Advisory Committee member (Nile-TAC). Annual review mission conducted to the project by the World Bank and other Development Partners to review the project progress and provide guidance on the issues and botlnecks. The project was consistently rated by the Work Bank review mission as satisfactory and last mission rated the project as highly satisfactory. A number of project adaptive project management measures contributed to the on-time, within budget completion of the project thereby achieving the expected outcome of effective and efficient project management. These included strong quality orientation, maintaining a strong and coherent project team, appropriate phasing of DSS development with a strong relationship with the development consultant, early planning to minimize risk such as data availability, and effective engagement of the PSC. The project was value for money The development of the analytic capacity across NBI and its member countries was a major investment and is considered to be good value for money. - The Nile Basin countries have huge untapped water resources development potentials worth billions of dollars in the next ten years. Developing these potentials in a manner that would result mutual benefits requires robust analytic systems and the DSS provides the necessary analytic tools for planning of water resources development investments. - The DSS is a generic tool that can be applied at different scales; it supports water resources planning at country level and, as a result, contributes towards implementation of integrated water resources management at national level. - The technical analytical capacity built through the project has created a nascent team of technicians that would greatly contribute to water resources planning and management in NBI countries thereby contributing to sound water resources management basin-wide, 49 - The DSS enables analysis of the implications of climate change scenarios on investment planning and consequently enables NBI member countries to develop ‘climate smart’ options. This could reduce the risk of ineffective use of financial resources from over or under engineered infrastructure designs. - At a national level, the DSS enables member states to better understand, manage and develop their water resources as well as to assess the implications from a transboundary perspective. Challenges The main challenges faced by WRPMP and mitigation measures were:  Lack of formal arrangement for data sharing: the project team started data compilation from public domain sources early in the DSS development and gained approval from the NileCOM to prepare a data sharing procedures in May 2006. This was developed and endorsed, with the subsequent development of implementation guidelines with endorsement in July 2011  Lack of clear business process to guide DSS design: at project initiation, NBI did not have a structured workflow for a water resources decision making process. This lack of clear business process posed challenge in scoping the DSS as the potential future uses define the scope. The project team adopted a generic but flexible workflow that captures key steps in water resources decision making. This was done as part of the comprehensive needs assessment and was later endorsed as part of the DSS conceptual design and development plan. During the detailed design stage, the project team also developed a set of use cases that capture key types of uses of the DSS and a generic profile of DSS users. This information helped in adequately scoping NB DSS.  Balancing process with results: A key requirement of the DSS development process was that it should be participatory to ensure riparian ownership as a common analytic tool. Developing the DSS through a process where all assumptions, methodologies and technical descriptions are agreed upon would have been an impossible task. Therefore, striking the right level of stakeholder involvement that ensured transparency but didn’t compromise delivery of results was a major achievement.  Appropriate selection of consultants to develop the DSS: It was clear from the beginning that the project would involve major software development. Traditionally, modeling tools have been developed by engineering firms on a ‘fit for purpose’ basis, i.e. with little emphasis on using modern software development process. Sustainability of the DSS required long-term commitment from the contractor for providing a maintenance service and keeping the DSS updated continuously. Therefore, selecting the type of contractor was one of the challenging tasks faced by the project. From a market scan and pre-qualification, a long list of firms was developed comprised of three types of firms; i) purely software development companies, ii) those with customized solutions for water resources planning/management, and iii) those with off-the-shelf modeling and related tools. The resulting short list enabled a good response.  Highly unequal demand and capacity across the 9 NBI member countries: NBI member countries are at different levels of water resources development and have greatly varying analytic capacities. As a result, not all countries took the DSS as their highest priority among all NBI projects. The project provided additional support where possible, and worked with the national DSS unit host institution in each country to develop a DSS integration plan. The project also made sure that each counterpart staff completed a pilot application using the DSS to ensure the needed skills were available at the DSS unit host institution.  Non-participation of two member states in project activities: following differences that arose among the riparian states regarding the signing of the Cooperative Framework Agreement, Egypt and Sudan suspended participation of their technical staff (counterpart staff, PSC members) in activities at regional level. There were two challenges posed to the project. First, ensuring that all core team members received same level of skills on the DSS became 50 difficult. Second, non-participation of PSC members and counterpart staff meant no formal involvement in DSS activities and could potentially affect acceptance of the DSS. The cause of the reduced participation from Egypt and Sudan was beyond the project’s control, however, the project took some measures that helped alleviate the potential impacts of the reduced participation. Regarding skills transfer, first, the project made sure that the national DSS specialists from these two countries participated in all regional activities and, upon return, worked with their counterparts to transfer skills gained through regional trainings. Second, pilot application results (data, models, documents) were sent to all counterpart staff including those from these two countries. In addition, the national DSS specialists for these two countries were made to team up for conducting national trainings. During those challenging times, the project leveraged its contacts and the national DSS units to engage (however to a limited extent) with the DSS unit host institutions in Egypt and Sudan. Formal assessment of capacity by the WRPM team in the two countries has not been possible but it is reliably assumed to be satisfactory. While the impact of this suspension is difficult to predict, the project has managed to reduce the potential risk of complete halting of DSS activities in these two countries. Budget and expenditure The WRPMP was funded in two phases from the Nile basin Trust Fund (NBTF) administered by the World Bank, with a total contribution of US$24 million. The phases were agreed due to the lack of available funds within the NBTF at the time of the start of the project in 2005. Once the NBTF had sufficient funds pledged to cover the full project amount, the World Bank agreed to phase II with a new grant agreement for an amount of US$11.2 million. Since phase I still had some funds remaining, after phase I was closed, the remaining funds of US$6 million were ‘re- flowed’ into WRPMP phase II with a grant amendment. The amended phase II budget was therefore US$17.2 million; the overall project budget remained the same at US$24 million as originally envisaged. Summary of budget and expenditure Component Budget Expenditure Remainder % DSS 13.771 13.715 0.056 99.6% RCF 3.355 3.328 0.027 99.2% PPM 0.094 0.094 0 100.0% Total 17.220 17.137 0.083 99.5% Lessons 1. A strong and dedicated team is essential: the DSS wouldn’t have come out as a world class analytic framework without the competence and dedication of the team put together by the project. The team interactions with DSS contractor were highly technical and needed resolution of complex issues. Often, the team had to conduct some research on current practices worldwide, consult with advisors, debate amongst itself before any consensus would be reached – all requiring a high degree of competence and dedication. 2. Specific to the general or vice versa: at the time of the needs assessment exercise, as part of stakeholder consultation, the project team went out to NBI countries and asked stakeholders to list issues of water resources management they would like the DSS to address. This was like opening a big gate to a flood of issues. The stakeholders came up with a wish list of all things they would like to solve using the DSS. With nine different lists, it was challenging to derive common set of issues to be used to scope the DSS. In hind sight, it would have been more 51 efficient if the discussions around water resources issues focused on a few water resources planning problems, taking for example the investment projects under the two SAPs. This would have made the discussion with the stakeholders much more concrete and efficient. This approach was followed in the preparation of the data sharing procedures. 3. Importance of effective communication: the DSS development stakeholders across nine countries, the contractor’s team, and international advisors across the globe. Keeping all parties up to date in all issues that matter for them was key to maintaining team spirit. This was not often possible but had to be adjusted from time to time. Face to face communication with the DSS contractor was very important as email and teleconference were not adequate to resolve complex issues. 4. Adequacy of Resources: the DSS component was adequately resourced. This has helped greatly in mobilizing the needed technical expertise in very specialized areas, such as software testing, software architecture design, etc. 5. Support of the World Bank team: the support from World Bank Nile Team was crucial in the early stages of DSS development. Due to slow start-up process, the patience and encouragement of the World Bank team helped keep the morale of project team high and kept the momentum. 6. Sufficient and targeted capacity building: It was very critical to attach the process of DSS development with continual training for the key professionals (expected DSS users) from the basin to ensure the sustainable use of the DSS beyond the project period. The training was focused mainly on the core team and regional and national network members. The selection of the training participants must be based on the relevance, qualification, readiness to learn. Criteria were prepared by the project and sent to the countries to be considered for the selection of training participants. This improved the targeting of participants. 7. International/other basins' experience: For such a complex project and development of such a complex tool, it is very important to understand the relevant international experience. The project organized a few field visits to transboundary basins to learn from their success and failure. The information and knowledge gained during these field visits was very important and had positive effects on the design of the NB-DSS. 8. Involvement of Policy/decision makers: Ensuring the NBI countries clearly understood the relevance and value of the NB-DSS in its role to support to address regional and national water resources planning issues - and accordingly to devote the necessary resources to sustain its use - involvement of policy/decision makers was critical. The project adopted various approaches to keep stakeholders involved and to raise awareness of PSC members. The consultations conducted at national and regional levels throughout the process helped in building common understanding on the scope and uses of the DSS. The national and regional awareness workshops were excellent in building a common understanding and buy-in from stakeholders. 9. Integration of national DSS units from the start: The project structure of a PMU at national level kept the project separate from the host institution. This was not the most effective arrangement to ensure sustainability. It may have been better to integrate the national DSS unit into the host institution at the start, ensuring committed full time staff as well as a regular budget. 10. Effective contract management: The project required a number of substantial (> US$1million) contracts for DSS development. To ensure value for money, close attention was required to ensure the contract requirements were fulfilled. The DSS development contract (Work Package 1) involved complex tasks of requirements analysis, design, development testing. Inherent in software development processes, all the details about the software design and process could not be foreseen, therefore continuous monitoring and communication with the DSS development consultant was crucial. The project, in agreement with DSS development consultant, ran regular software development sessions to address key DSS design related matters. These sessions were very effective in resolving pending technical issues. 52 Annex 8. Comments of Cofinanciers and Other Partners/Stakeholders N/A Annex 9. List of Supporting Documents NBI documents Strategic Action Program Brief, May 2001 DSS Conceptual Design, June 2008 DSS Sustainability Plan, December 2011 National test case reports, October 2011 - Operational Guidelines for Implementation of the Nile Basin Interim Procedures for Data and Information Sharing and Exchange, July 2011 NileTAC Briefing note on NileSEC WRM Unit, July 2011 Nile Basin Monitoring Strategy, July 2012 Transboundary pilot application synthesis reports, December 2012 WRPMP Project Completion Report, April 2012 World Bank documents WRPMP Project Appraisal Document, April 2005 Shared Vision Program PICRR, June 2010 WRPMP Phase 2 Project Paper, March 2009 WRPMP Phase 2 additional financing paper (draft as not taken forward), May 2012 WRPMP Implementation Support Mission, Aide Memoire, December 2012 53 IBRD/BIRD 30785 20E 25E 30E 35E 40E Mediterranean Sea NILE RIVER BASIN Matruh Damietta BASSIN DU NIL Barrage Damietta Alexandria Port Said Edfina Barrage Sefta Barrage SELECTED CITIES / VILLES 30N 30N Delta Barrage El-Ismailiya 30N NATIONAL CAPITALS / CAPITALES NATIONALES Suez CAIRO El-Faiyum MAIN ROADS / AXES ROUTIERS PRINCIPAUX Beni Suef . Nile R At Tur This map was produced by the Map Design Unit of The World Bank. Baharia Al Minya Oasis The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of The World Bank LIBYA Assuit Assuit Barrage Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any ARAB REP. Sohag Nag Hammadi Barrage endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. OF EGYPT Qena Cette carte a été préparée par le département de cartographie de la Banque mondiale. Les frontières, les couleurs, les dénominations Luxor 25N El-Kharga Esna et toute autre information figurant sur la présente carte n'impliquent Barrage de la part du Groupe de la Banque mondiale aucun jugement quant au statut juridique d'un territoire quelconque et ne signifient nullement Aswan que le Groupe reconnaît ou accepte ces frontières. 1st Cataract Aswan Dam High Aswan Dam Lake Nasser Red Wadi Halfa Lake Nubia 2nd Cataract Sea 20N 20N 3rd Cataract Port Sudan Abu Hamad N il e Dongola a im K ar 5th Cataract . 4th R Cataract Merowe Atbara At b CHAD ar ERITREA a R. 6th Cataract Omdurman Massawa KHARTOUM Kassala 15N 15N Jebel Aulia Dam Khashm ASMARA Ed Dueim El Girba Dam El Fasher Wad Medani SUDAN Sennar Dam Gedarif Tekez e R. Axum Kosti Sennar Assab Mekele Blu Raha El Obeid d R. Gonder e N Di Lake DJIBOUTI nd Tis Issat er Tana Lalibella i le R Weir DJIBOUTI R. R. Roseires Bahir Dar N ile Dam Tis Issat Falls . Eddiem R. W hite bay Debre Markos 10N 10N Bahr El Ghazal Ab Malakal Finchaa Dam Dire Sob Machar Dawa at Marshes L. R. ADDIS ABABA Bahr El Z ara No Bahr El Baro R. CENTRAL Wau Sudd Gambela Gore ETHIOPIA Swamp AFRICAN Ak Jeb ob l o f e a R. REPUBLIC SOUTH SUDAN Bor 5N Mongalla 5N JUBA Nimule Moyale Lake Turkana SOMALIA ile ert N UGANDA Alb Lake Murchison Albert Falls DEM. REP. Lake Kyoga KENYA R OF CONGO ki . Victoria Owen Falls Dam Nile Eldoret Semli KAMPALA Jinja Meru 0 Lake Kasese Kisumu 0 Masaka Entebbe Nyeri Edward Lake Victoria NAIROBI RWANDA Machakos Lake Kivu KIGALI Rusumu INDIAN Falls Mwanza OCEAN . uR BUJUMBURA Arusha vub Ru BURUNDI Shinyanga Mombasa Lake Singinda 0 200 400 Kilometers Tanganyika Kigoma 5S Tabora Tanga TANZANIA DODOMA 0 100 200 300 Miles 20E 25E 30E 35E 40E 45E APRIL / AVRIL 2013