0 s r; z ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- M fe :l: t ',~ ~~ 1oC w ---:.W Wff ¢^ :<,rr, QA 5 W~~~~~9 a -, 4 f,-.t,ta,R @ S <{ < f,'vt Contents and summary Continued low interest rates, improved annual volume was down 25%. The decline credit ratings, and progress in debt restruc- was particularly pronounced for project turings and privatization programs all con- finance, which plunged from $27.1 billion in tributed to an increase in financial flows and 1995 to $16.5 billion in 1996. Dollar- higher debt prices during the fourth quarter. denominated loans made up 88% of the mar- Bonds maintained a vigorous pace, with ket. Stock markets fell marginally in the $18.5 billion in issuances pushing total 1996 fourth quarter, but were up 7% for 1996. issues to $73.0 billion. The quarter saw sig- Latin American markets, up 14%, posted the nificant private sector issues from East Asia highest regional increase in 1996, with Asian and Latin America. In contrast, issues from markets up 9%. Stock markets in Europe, the Europe and Central Asia were dominated by Middle East, and Africa fell 5%. New equi- sovereign borrowers. Fixed-rate bonds made ties issuances took off, more than doubling up 75% of the market. Secondary market in the fourth quarter, rising 34% for the year. prices posted strong gains, aided by planned Of official flows multilateral commitments swaps of Bradys and by debt restructuring rose 78% over the low level of the third quar- agreements with commercial bank creditors. ter, but bilateral flows of official develop- Loan commitment volume of $18.4 billion ment assistance appear set to decline (with was just below the third quarter volume, but the important exception ofJapan). International lending and capital markets 5 BOND VOLUMES HIT RECORD LEVELS IN 1996 5 LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES ISSU'E $10 BILLION Argentina diversifies currency denomination. Brazilian banks become major players. Mexico enters the lira market. Colombia and Trinidad arid Tobago issue debt. 6 FAST ASIAN BOND VOLUMES SURGE Malaysia's oil and gas company taps market. Private sector dominates issuances from Indonesia, China, and the Philippines. Thailand taps the yer sector. Korean borrowers enjoy lower rates. 6 PRIVATE SECTOR COMPANIES IN INDIA SPUR RECORD BOND LEVELS IN SOUTH ASIA 6 SOVEREIGN BORROWERS DOMINATE IN ElUROPE ANtD CENTRAL ASIA The Russian Federation issues largest offering in region. Kazakstan issues benchmark bond. Util- ity company in the Slovak Republic issues $200 million bond. Turkish, Czech, and Greek authori- ties issue bonds. 7 ISSUANCES FROM OTHER REGIONS REMAIN LIMITED Africa issues one bond. Lebanon is the only issuer from the Middle East and North Africa. 7 BOND MATURITIES ARE SHORT, RATES FIXED Maturities average less than 10 vears. Fixed-rate bonds dominate. 8 SPREADS AT LAUNCH VARY WIDELY 8 SECONDARY MARKET PRICES RISE Market posts strong gains in fourth quarter. Debt restructurings boost prices. 9 VOLUME FOR THE YEAR DECLINES AS ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO BOND MARKETS Volume of syndicated loans falls. Regional composition of borrowers varies. 10 PRIVATE SECTOR LEADS EAST ASIAN BORROWING Republic of Korea remains major borrower. Private sector borrowers dominate in Indonesia and Thailand. Public sector borrowers dominate in China and Malaysia. Financial Flows and the Developing Countries X Contents and summary 10 LENDING TO LATIN AMERICA RISES Mexico accounts for half of region's loans. Chile expands borrowing activity. Borrowinlg by other countries is limited. 11 LENDING TO EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA RISES Turkey, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and the Russian Federation are major players. 11 SOUTH ASIA BORROWS $1.3 BILLION Indian oil and finance sectors borrow. Pakistan borrows to purchase oil. 11 LENDING TO AFRICA AND THE MIDDLE EAST REMAINS WEAK South Africa and Ghana are the only borrowers in Sub-Saharan Africa. Lebanon and Oman are the only borrowvers in the Middle East and North Africa. 12 TERMS FACING DEVELOPING COUNTRIES VARY WIDELY Spreads are low in East Asia and the Pacific. Spreads are high, maturities short in Europe and Central Asia Terms vary widely in Latin America. Borrowers from other regions face narrow spreads. Most transactions are denominated in dollars. 13 PROJECT FINANCING DECLINES Average size of loan grows and maturities lengthen. Spreads vary across and within regions. Infra- structure financing continues to dominate the market. East Asia claims the bulk of transactions. Financing to Europe and Central Asia increases. Borrowing in other regions remains limited. 5 Mza.rtetrditwrnr____ 15 EGYPT IS ASSIGNED A BA2 RATING BY MOODY'S 15 RUSSIA AND KAZAKSTAN ARE ASSIGNED CREDIF RATINGS BY MOODY'S AND S&P 15 HUNGARY RECEIVES INVESTMENT-GRADE RATING 15 OTTLOOoK FOR INDIA IMPROVES 15 CREDIT RATINGS ARE DOWNGRADED IN PAKISTAN AND TURKEY Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment Xb r D i :)c E _rk-- - 16 EMERGING STOCK MIARKETS ARE UP FOR 1996 Latin American markets gain. Performance varies in East Asia. Markets decline in South Asia. South Africa drags down index for Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. \ i d Nvv FC e; i t-E S 17 NEW EQUtIY ISSUES RISE SHARPLY Fourth quarter activity surges. Equities are up for the year. Indonesian bank is largest issuer in East Asia. Indian bank is largest issuer in South Asia. Venezuela leads issues in Latin America. Russian gas monopoly is the major issue from Europe and Central Asia. Few offerings are issued in the Middle East and North Africa. 19 NEW FUNDS ARE CREATED FOR AFRICAN, EUROPEAN, AND ASIAN MARKETS Africa Investment Fund is launched. New funds are launched in Europe and Central Asia. Prudential will launch fund ainied at East Asia. DUit,re&-n cssrect rnestrnent avid shFiza 20 FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT TO LATIN AMERICA SURGES 20 COMPETITION TO INVEST IN CHINA INTENSIFIES February 1997 X Contents and Summary 20 SOUTH AFRICAN INVESTORS MOVE NORTH 21 REPUBLIC OF KOREA INVESTS IN EUROPE 21 ASIA CONTINUES TO ATTRACT FOREIGN INVESTORS 21 PRIVATIZATIONS CONTINUE IN FOURTH QUARTER Official flows 22? MulvlUatera'~ f9 zv!e n3s 23 ODA TO DECLINE IN MAJOR INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES 24 EXPORT-IMPORT BANK OF JAPAN LENDS TO TURKWENISTAN, INDONESIA 24 US EXPORT-IMiPORT BANK LENDS TO ANGOLA, CIIINA Debt relief update 24 NIGER AND MOZAMBIQUE RECEIVE FLOW RESCHEDULINGS FROM PARIS CLUB 24 BENIN CONCLUDES STOCK DEAL WITH PARIS CLUB 24 FYR MACEDONIA REACHES AGREEMENT WIATH COMMERCIAL BANKS 25 PERU RESTRUCTURES $8 BILLION IN COMMERCIAL BANK DEBT 25 C6TE D'IVOIRE RESTRUCTURES $7.2 BILLION IN COMMERCIAL BANK DEBT 25 SENEGAL RESTRUCTURES $75 MILLION IN COMMERCIAL BANK DEBT Financial brief: Determinants of Japanese FDI Statistical appendix 28 New bond issues 29 New loan issues D 30 Neiv equity issues r 32 Bank and trade-related nonbank claims n 33 Commercial bank claims on developing countries 34 Commercial bank claims on developing countries, by country of origin E 38 Maturities of bank claims on developing countries 2 39 Funds raised on international capital markets L 40 Secondary market debt (bid) prices n 41 Emerging stock markets a' 42 Country groups ANote: Tables on external debt, aggregate long-term resource flows, and foreign direct investment flows are published only as data are updated. Korea is no longer included in the regional aggregates in both the text tables and the statistical annex, because it is now classified as a high-income country. This change results in significant differences in the totals for all developing countries and East Asia and the Pacific from trose reported in previous editions. WTe will continue to discuss Korea's financial transactions in the text. j Financial Flows and the Developing Countries *r~~ International lending and capital markets Bonds issuances in the fourth quarter coming from the private sector. Banks were the major players. Bond volumes hit record levels in 1996 Brazil returned to the dollar sector for the first Developing countries borrowed $18.5 billion in time since 1982 with a 5-year global issue of $750 international bond markets in the fourth quarter, million, placed at a spread of 265 basis points over bringing the annual volume of bond issuances to US Treasury securities. One of the government's $73 billion, up 53% over 1995. Volume for the aims was to establish a sovereign benchmark for year was the highest ever recorded by developing sector issuers from Brazil. Petroleo Brasilero, the IPt e&tP;I U eUnO countries (table 3). Issuances from East Asia and largest public sector issuer, enjoyed enthusiastic D0npd ksues bv Latin America represented 83% of total volume in investor demand, enabling it to secure more 1996. Low US long-term bondyields helped main- funds than originally planned. European - r tain the attractiveness of developing country debt. investors, although they usually prefer somewhat C2 5X . shorter maturities on bonds issued by developing . i ' Latin American and Caribbean countries, purchased the company's 8- and 10- countries issue $10 billion year issuances. .t,' qucrcif; uti ARGENTINA DIVERSIFIES CURRENCY DENOMINA- MEXICO ENTERS THE LIRA MNRKET. The gov- e Or TIONS. Argentina borrowed $4.7 billion during the ernment of Mexico made its debut in the lira mar- fourth quarter, half of the regional total for Latin ket with a 5-year 500-billion Italian lira ($329 America and the Caribbean. In October a DM 500 million) issuance. The issue had wide appeal to million ($324 million) 30-year deal was launched institutional investors because of its floating rate at 497 basis points over German securities. That structure. The rate on the note was about 75 basis issuance represents the longest yield curve for points below the rate on Argentina's lira bond. developing countries in the deutsche mark sector. Petroleos Mexicanos issued $300 million in debt In December Argentina raised another DM 1 bil- for three years at a very competitive spread of 175 lion, pricing the 8-year issue at 295 basis points basis points. Demand from Swiss retail investors over Bunds (German government obligations). was substantial. Recognizing the above-par performance of the r rBond issues by type of borrower country's outstanding bonds, Benelurx, German, . . . US$ millions 1~~~~~~~~~~996 1996 and Swiss retail investors expressed strong interest !U mons 995 996 Q3 Q4 in both transactions. Argentina also issued close to All deveioP ng countries 47,749 72,977 18.657 18.546 $1 billion in yen-denominated securities. Japan's Private 15473 21 614 3,928 5469 low domestic interest rates (ranging from 0.5% on Sub-Sahararn Afr ca 100 250 0 0 East Asia and the Par/fic 6531 6 7,420 1,496 2,187 short-term instruments to 2.75% on 10-year instru- Soath a 520 672 2 222 ments) encouraged small and local investors, such Europe and Central Asia 541 546 46 159 as regional banks, credit cooperatives, and foun- Lat r America 7,746 12,567 2,136 2,80 Macddae East and North Africa | 50 160 0 00 dations, to lock in the high coupons offered by Sovereign i24253 4 082 3215 8693 Latin American borrowers. Discount prices cou- Sub-Saharan Afr ca 496 782 331 300 pled with high coupons helped Argentina raise EastAsa and the Pacfic 569 3,459 1,760 316 South Asia 0 50 0 0 another $1 billion in Italy in tliree transactions Europeand CentralAsia 10204 8,919 978 2,602 with maturities ranging from 5 to 10 vears. Latin America 12,105 27,345 9,7 9 5,474 M dc e East and North Africa 879 428 428 0 Argentina also issued a Sfr 200 million ($157 mil- Other pub.1c 1 8 023 10,28 .5 4 4 384 lion) bond in the Swiss market, where retail Sub-Saharan Africa i 396 140 0 0 investors were attracted bv interest rates twice as East As;a and the Pac fic 3 083 4 042 999 2484 South Asia 262 220 0 0 high as those available domestically. Europe and Central Asia 50 80 0 80 BRAZILIAN BANKS BECOME MAJOR PLAYERS. Latin America 2 731 5,449 465 1,720 Middle East and North Africa 50 250 50 100 Borrowings from Brazil accounted for about one- Note Fourth quarter figures are as of December 23, 1996. third of the regional total, with about 60% of Source. ELiromoney Bordware and Wlord Bank. Febrrary 1997 I International lending and capital markets COLOMBIA AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO ISSUE with a two-tranche 30 billion yen ($266 million) DEBT. Colombia came out with a DM 275 million deal. Maturities on the two tranches were 5 and 10 ($180.5 million) issue targeted at institutional years. Private sector issuers accounted for all other investors. Trinidad and Tobago issued $150 mil- bond issuances, most of which were in the US lion in 10-year bonds, priced at 175 basis points dollar sector. over US Treasuries of comparable maturity. KOREAN BORROWERS ENJOY LOW1ER RATES. The Cho Hong Bank and the Korean Develop- 3a0.id 1 SS 141in' i 911 East Asian bond volumes surge ment Bank were the first Korean borrowers to tap East Asian countries borrowed $5 billion in the the market in the fourth quarter, issuing Ffr 1.5 bond market in the fourth quarter, the highest billion ($291 million) in 6-year bonds, priced at ,eccn,di recodc quarterly level in 1996. Major players included only 33 basis points over comparable French gov- levels in t½ Malaysia ($2 billion), Indonesia ($0.9 billion), ernment securities. Korea's cost of borrowing in and Thailand ($0.9 billion). Borrowers in the international bond markets has fallen as demand flu r4j CluS^a3 -3V;e^.f,ge issuances by Greece and Turkey, which are well Among the single sovereign transactions r~e4 3f 5n 'ci* established in that market. East and South Asian Argentina faced the highest spread (497 basis borrowers preferred the lUS dollar market, points over deutsche mark risk-free securities) for ' 0 t f-3VefU3t i uu although Koreans tapped the French and Swiss 30-year funds, and Trinidad and Tobago faced the .rc.Sin esif>/33gt franc markets with small issues. lowest spread (175 basis points for 10-year financ- ing). Brazil faced a spread of 265 basis points for 2rj,._< 4SSf :,r. V'e7g'^% Spreads at launch vary widely rv-ear funds in the US dollar sector, while for - S -s,er Based on the information available on launch Mexico the spread was 318 basis points for 8-year spreads, the average cost of borrowing by devel- funds in the deutsche mark sector. The average oping countries ranged from 55 to 375 basis spread for the two Lebanese transactions was 300 points over the risk-free rate, with an average rate basis points. of 273 basis points. Malaysia, Greece, and the Slo- vak Republic were at the lower end of the spec- Secondary market prices rise trum, and most Latin American countries were at MARKET POSTS STRONG GAINS IN FOURTH QUAR- the upper end. The sovereign issues by South TER. The secondary debt market posted strong Africa paid about 1 percentage point less than the gains in the fourth quarter (figure 5), with the average for all developing countries. Among the prices of virtually all Asian and Latin American private sector borrowers from East Asia, the high- bonds rising. Low interest rates in the major est spread was for Indonesia (290 basis points), fol- industrial countries-rates in Germany are at a lowed by Malaysia (190 basis points) and Thailand post-War low, rates in Japan are the lowest they (175 basis points). Public sector borrowers in have been this century, and USrates are low-and Malaysia paid a spread of 55 basis points. The increased creditworthiness of Latin American and Bond issues from developing 2 Bond issues from developing countries, by maturity countries, by type US$ n-ilions USt m',Tiorns 73.0 Over IS years 73.0 Floating E I l-IS years E Convertible f 6-10 years H - Fixed rate 5 1-5 years 18.7 18.5 ~~~~ ~~~~~~18.7 18.5 1996 1996Q3 1996Q4 !996 1996Q3 ;996Q4 Source Euromronev Bondware and World Bank. So rce: Euromoney Bondware and World Bank. Financial Flows and the Developing Counrtnes International lending and capital markets Eastern European countries accounted for the Commercial bank loans strength of bond prices. Currency DEBT RESTRUCTURINGS BOOST PRICES. The Volume for the year declines composition of bond restructuring of sovereign foreign debt through as activity shifts to bond markets issues, 1 996Q4 buybacks, debt-for-debt exchanges, and paydown VOLUME OF SYNDICATED LOANS FALLS. Partici- East and South Asia of Brady bonds also increased demand. Mexico pation by developing countries in international ($5 b lion) and the Philippines, which restructured or loan syndications reached $18.4 billion in the Othe% exchanged Bradvs in 1996, and Venezuela, which fourth quarter, about the level of the second and plans to restructure its Bradys, enjoyed higher third quarters (table 2). The $77.5 billion bor- bond prices in the fourth quarter. Veneziuelan rowed in 1996 represents a $25.4 billion drop US$ policymakers met with Moody's and Standard & from 1995, as more government borrowers turned 83% Poor's to seek a credit rating upgrade, something to the bond market. The share of sovereign bor- Latin America some analysts believe is long overdue. rowings for the vear sank to 5%, and the share of ($10 billon) - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~9 IOther Argentina and Brazil are planning to reduce other public sector borrowers fell from 43% in Oter their Brady bond exposure. Argentina is expected 1995 to 35% in 1996. The private sector continued 130/ to undertake a debt-for-debt exchange. in which its strong presence in the syndication market, DM US Bradys (which are backed by US Treasury bonds) accounting for 60% of volume for the year and 16% will be swapped for higher-yielding uncollateral- 58% of the volume in the fourth quarter. ized bonds. REGIONAL COMPOSITION OF BORRONWERS VARIES. 901O In November Peru signed the accord for its Private sector activitv accounted for the majority of Europe and Central Asia 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~($2 B b Ilicr) Bradv debt rescheduling agreement (see section on syndications to East Asia and Europe and Central commercial bank debt restructuring). The price of Asia in the fourth quarter, with Indonesia, Thai- Peruvian debt in the secondary market rose by more land, Hungary, and Turkey accounting for the Other thani 50% in 1996 in an ticipationi of this agreement. largest volulmies. Amoing public sector borrower-s 5 2% In contrast, the price of Senegal's debt China accounted for the largest share of loans to ____ Soa'ce. Euromoney Bondware and remained unchanged despite the recent agree- East Asia. In contrast, the distribution of syndica- Word Barn. ment to restructure its $75 million in debt tions was more even in Latin America and South through a cash buyback and issuance of a long- Asia. terrn payment collateralized by US Treasury bills. Russian eurobond Vnesh paper rose with the -Ic,:] Secondary market price index, April 1993- expectation of a sovereign rating announcement December 1996 Apnl 1990= 100 for the Russian Federation by the credit rating _I agencies (see section on market creditworthiness). 220 ----- ----- --- --- --- ----- ----------- ----- - ---- ---- ---- -3Rr Sectoral composition of 200 - - r__ - - --------------- _-.-- - - developing-country bond issues, -' 1996Q4 180 ---;g-- 0-t- j. ~~~ ~~~ All debt 7 Energy/te1econm/ 1r cotities 4% / 7 Government - - flnonce 28% _ _ _ _ __ -~ 100 Note: "Other' includes utiltes, agricLtJre construcion, transport and c other services. Source- Euromcney Bondware and World Bank. Source: Word Bank. Februamy 1997 R%V.^ International lending and capital markets 4 Loan issus by type f borrower ___ _ ____ (lications for China were for public sector compa- US$ millions '994 995 1996 Q4 996 Q1996 Q996 1996 ries providing financing and investment services. A7,5l7 developngcounsres 25 87 5C 4 China Southern Airlines arranged two loans to All eveopig cunt es72,780 l02,9l F 77,547 41,797 2 523 8,870 18,750 18,404 PrAicte 1 32,110 51,075 46,844 22,181 12,170 13,010 10,987 10,677 finance aircraft purchases, and there were a few Sub-Saharan Africa 1,022 2,606 3,788 267 8 5 2,144 446 384 transactions to private sector shipping and trans- East Asia and the Pacific 20,685 28.447 26,843 12,134 8,959 7,060 7,445 3,379 South Asia ,857 2.400 1/697 300 643 171 304 580 portatoncompanies.Theaveragesizeofsyndica- Europe and Central Asia E645 5,344 5,904 3,442 816 1 25 1.089 2,873 tions for China was about $60 million. Latin Amer ca 6,434 11,621 8,135 5,987 938 2,255 1[669 3,274 The largest syndication for Malaysia was for Middle East and Noth Afrca 468 657 477 50 0 255 35 187 Sovereign /0,604 7,284 3,548 ,600 ,.23 678 95 831 financing the purchase of aircraft by the national Sovereign 10,604 7,284 3,548 ,600 ,123 678 9 15 831 Sub-Saharan Arica 28 41 1 415 56 40 0 375 0 carrier. The only deal by the state authorities was a East Asia and the Pacific 4,074 ,727 790 88 98 542 100 50 $50 million loan tojohor Corp., established by the South Asia 283 361 701 200 375 0 182 143 Europe and Central Asia 2,585 1,666 541 314 60 136 08 236 parlamenttopromote economic development. Latin America i 585 2,9 14 352 737 350 0 0 2 >3 dole East and North Africa / 3,048 205 750 205 200 0 150 400 r I,~~~~~~~~~~~ending to Latin America rises Otherpublic 30,066 44,552 27, 55 8,016 8,230 5,182 6,848 6,896 ac.ilo Sub-Saharan Africa 3 1 1 2,649 1,264 940 440 185 349 290 Latm American borrowmg reached $6.8 bllion m EastAsia and the Pac ic 14,568 18,077 7,726 10,446 2,479 1,74 1,767 1,739 the fourth quarter, the highest quarterly level in South Asia 2,411/ 3,339 3,335 634 968 1,082 720 565 Europe and Central Asia 6,692 6,759 6,973 2,215 2,845 994 2.374 760 1996, as loan commitments to both the private Lat n America 4,838 5,660 7,186 2,802 937 1,079 627 3,542 and public sectors grew. M ddle East and North Africa L 1,246 8,067 671 979 56 1 100 .0 0 MEXICO ACCOUNTS FOR HA.F OF REGION'S .Niote: Fourth cuarter figures are as of December 7, 1996. Sourca: Eiromoney Loanware and World Bank. LOANS. Mexico borrowed $3.4 billion in the fourth quarter, accounting for half of all syndications to Private sector leads the region. The state oil and gas company, East Asian borrowing PEMEX, was the only public sector borrower REPUBLIC OF KOREA REMAINSMAJOR BORROWER, through refinancings and trade- and receivable- Private sector companies in the construction, elec- backed financings. The bulk of private sector tronics, leasing and financing, and shipping indus- loans was raised by commercial banks. tries were the primary borrowers in the Republic CHILE EXPANDS BORRONING ACTIVITY. Syndica- of Korea. The largest deals were a 1 0-year $300 mil- tions by Chilean borrowers, which totaled $1.1 bil- lion syndication for Korean Airlines Co. Ltd. and lion in the fourth quarter, were about equally a 15-year $225 million term loan for Hyundai Mer- distributed between the public mining sector and chant Marine Co. Ltd. The loans will fund the private financial services and food processing delivery of aircraft and vessels. Both deals were companies. Several borrowers tapped the inter- heavily secured. Other deals in Korea averaged national capital markets for the first time in about $40 million. In a few cases, such as the $40 decades. million loan to Hyundai to finance construction of BORROWING BY OTHER COUNTRIES IS LIMITED. an automobile factory in Turkey, the loan market Borrowers in Colombia came mainly from the pri- was used to finance foreign direct investment vate sector. One borrower had to turn to private (Korea being a significant provider of FDI). banks for refinancing after the US Export-Import PRIVATE SECTOR BORROW,ERS DOMINATE IN Bank withdrew cover for the country because of INDONESIA AND THAILA-D. Almost all of the $1.7 political tensions. The largest syndication, a $400 billion raised by Indonesian borrowers went to the m:illion loan with a 5-year maturity, went to Colom- private sector, with syndications often used as refi- bia's leading brewer. The rest of the region's nancing facilities. Private sector companies in financing (20%) went to Argentina, Bolivia, Thailand borrowed about $1 billion, with most of Brazil, Panama, and Belize, where the Develop- the deals oversubscribed. ment Finance Corporation raised $2 million to PUBLIC SECTOR BORROWERS DOMINATE IN firance small and medium-size enterprises in the CHINA AND MALAYSIA. In contrast, most of the syn- country. FinancialFlows and the Developing Countries * International lending and capital markets Lending to Europe $175 million for general funding, and Slovenia and Central Asia rises and Slovakia each borrowed less than $100 TURKEY, HUNGARY, THE CZECH REPUBLIC, AND million. TH E RuSSIAN FEDERATION ARE MAJOR PLAYE RS. Syn- dications for Europe and Central Asia reached South Asia borrows $1.3 billion $3.9 billion in the fourth quarter, up from $3.6 bil- INDIAN OIL AND FINANCE SECTORS BORROW. lion in the third quarter. The largest loan to India was a $200 million trade Turkey borrowed $1.3 billion, with private sec- financing facility syndicated for the Indian Oil Syndicc clans tor commercial banks providing trade financing Corp. Ltd., the country's largest commercial com- 0 Fo~~~~~~~r Ecro' e and for the largest players. pany and sole importer of crude oil. The cotn- ' Hungary borrowed $0.9 billion, with the try's principal industrial finance institution, Central Asia largest syndications going to the telecommunica- IDBI, borrowed $150 million for 7 years. Over- reached tions sector. The $100 million syndication to the subscription bv syndicate members allowed for a oil and gas corporation, Magyar Olaj-es Gazipari 50% expansion over the original size of the deal. >3 9 biUiRon, Rt (MOL), was the only loan to the public sector Most other deals in India were for private sector up $3.6 billion in Hungary. borrowers, with an average loan size of about $30 The Czech Republic borrowed $0.6 billion in million. fom the third the fourth quarter, 70% of which went to the pri- PA.ISTAN BORROWS TO PURCHASE OIL. Pakistan auarter vate sector. accounted for 30% of the loan volume in the Of the seven deals totaling $0.4 billion syndi- region. Funds were raised primarily to finance cated for the Russian Federation, four were for crude oil purchases by the Ministry of Petroleum first time borrowers. Activity was restricted to the and Natural Resources ($100 million) and by Pak- banking and oil sectors. istan State Oil Co. Ltd ($105 million). Other Three countries in the region (Croatia, Slove- loans, primarily from private companies, averaged nia, and Turkey) accounted for most of the gov- about $60 million. ernment borrowing. The 2-year DM 200 million ($131.4 million) syndication for Croatia repre- Lending to Africa and sents the first commercial bank loan to that the Middle East remains weak country. The National Bank of Romania raised SOUTH AFRICA AND GHANA ARE THE ONLYBOR- ROWERS IN SuB-SAHAR,N AFRICA. South Africa -Et)r. - | Syndicated loans to developing borrowed $650 million in the fourth quarter. Pri- countries, by maturity vate banks borrowed $210 million, and a mining U5$ muiions company received a favorable response in the 77.5 Over IO years Euromarket in its first syndicated borrowing. A 6-10 years E state-owned public utility company arranged 2-5 years EL financing for building gas fields, while other com- 0-1 years EM panies borrowed for working capital. The only other borrower in the region was Ghana, where a hospital group borrowed STG 14.5 million ($24 million). LEBANON AND OMAN ARE THE ONLY BORROW- 18_7 18.4 ERS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA. Lebanon benefited from a project financing transaction (see below), and Oman refinanced a 5-year-old loan with a $400 million 7-year syndi- 1996 1 996Q3 I 996Q4 cation. The funds will be used for oil and petro- Source. Euromoney Bondware and Word Bank. chemical projects. febmary 1997 International lending and capital markets Terms facing developing basis points (the highest of any region). The high countries vary widely average cost reflected the very high cost of bor- The margin over LIBOR paid by developing coun- rowing by the Russian Federation, which faced tries ranged from 29 basis points (Slovenia) to 510 spreads of more than 500 basis points for 2-year basis points (the Russian Federation) in the loans. Low-cost borrowers included Slovenia (29 fourth quarter, with an average margin of about basis points, with an average maturity of 7 years) 95 basis points. and the Czech Republic (36 basis points, with an SPREADS ARE LOW IN EAST ASIA AND THE average maturity of 3 years). Spreads were 175 PACIFIC. In East Asia the average spread was about basis points over the risk-free rate, with an aver- 80 basis points and the average maturity about 4.5 age maturity of 2 years in Croatia; 175 basis years in the fourth quarter (figure 7). Spreads points, with an average maturity of 3 years in were highest in Papua New Guinea (165 basis Romania; close to 100 basis points, with an aver- points, with an average maturity of 7 years) and age maturity of 2 years in Turkey; and below 100 Indonesia (160 basis points, with an average matu- basis points, wvith an average maturity of 6.5 years rity of 4.5 years). Spreads were above average in in Hungary. Vietnam (135 basis points, with an average matu- TERMS VARYWIDELYIN LATIN AMERIcA. Spreads rity of 7 years) and the Philippines (125 basis facing Latin American borrowers ranged from 25 points, with an average maturity of 5 years). The tiasis points for a 2-year loan to Panama to 300 solid market standing of Malaysia kept spreads basis points for a 6-month loan to Bolivia. The there low (about 55 basis points, with average average maturity for the region was 3.5 years, with maturity of about 4.5 years). China and Thailand longer maturities in Colombia (5.5 years), paid about 100 basis points over LIBOR on matu- Argentina (5 years), and Chile (4.75 years). rities that were slightly lower than the average for Spreads averaged 240 basis points in Argentina, the region. 163 basis points in Colombian, and 40 basis points SPREADS ARE HIGH, MIATURITIES SHORT IN in Chile. The average spread in Mexico was 72 EUROPE AND CENTRAL AsiA. Spreads on loans to basis points, with an average maturity of 18 Europe and Central Asia averaged nearly 150 months. BORROWERS FROM OTHER REGIONS FACE NAR- ROW SPREADS. Low spreads in other regions - - ; - Average maturity and spread of international loan reduced the average cost of borrowing by devel- syndications for developing countries, 1 996Q4 oping countries. South Africa, India, and Oman Apri! 990=100 were able to borrow at margins of about 50 basis Average spread points. Maturities averaged 3.5 vears in South (basis points) 150 - - -- -- ---- - r--- -- - Africa, 5 years in India, and 7 years in Oman. The f:T Europe end Centre! Asi spread on loans to Pakistan of 100 basis points was 20 -jst above the average for developing countries, . . g ~~~~Looin Amenca D otin Arnericc but the average maturity of about 2 years was less 90.I All developing countries than half the average. Eaost Asiac.kL0Xfl . MOST TRANSACTIONS ARE DENOMINATED IN end Pacifi Of: South Asia 60 - ------ ---- ---- DOT.LARS. Dollar-denominated loans accounted S boon for 86% of developing countries' borrowings in . E Sub-Saharsn ~~~~~~~Midd!e Lost end iS: 30 --- -- -- - -Africo---- --- - -Nsrh Afnca the syndicated loan market (figure 8). Nondollar borrowings came from East Asia and Europe and 0 t Central Asia. One loan to China was made in ! 2 3 4 5 6 7 Hong Kong dollars, a handful of issues to Indone- All develaoping cauntnies All_ __ developing countriesSia and Malaysia were arranged in local curren- Source: Euromoney Loarware and World Bank. cies, two loans to Thailand were made in yen and F c Fsnanca.l Flaws and the Developing Couhntries * International lending and capital markets Swiss francs, and somne deutsche mark syndica- a whole but continiued to account for almost half tions went to Europe and Central Asia. of project finance volume in 1996 (see table 3). Led by borrowings from East and South Asian Project financing declines countries, the power sector accounted for over The international loan market provided some 50% of infrastructure financing in the fourth $3.3 billion for project financing in the fourth quarter, with telecommunications, construction, quarter, down from $5.3 billion in the third quar- and water and sewage sectors also accounting for ter (table 3). Recent quarterly variations are of a significant volume of loans. Countries receiv- limited importance, however, because they are ing financing for infrastructure transactions in greatly affected by the timing of a handful of large the fourth quarter included several Asian coun- deals, and the fourth quarter total may reflect tries, and Colombia, Lebanon, Hungary, and some delayed reporting of transactions. For the Turkey. year as a whole project financing declined by EAST ASIA CLAIMS THE BULK OF TRANISACTIONS. about a third compared with 1995, reflecting a East Asian countries accounted for 57% of the shift away from syndicated lending toward financ- project finance transactions in the fourth quarter ing through bond markets. and 69% of transactions for the year as a whole, AVERAGE SIZE OF LOAN GROWS AND M1ATURITIES up fromjust over 50% in 1995. The decline in pro- LENGTHEN. Although the number of transactions ject financing volume in the fourth quarter fell sharply in the fourth quarter, the average size resulted largely from the relatively small number ($102 million) and maturity (6.8 years) of project financing transactions rose to their highest quar- Project finance by region and sector terlylevelsin 1996 (table 4).Countries in EastAsia US$ no i0ons 1996 1996 and South Asia averaged the longest maturities (7 - 19796 Q3 Q4 Years), with a range from 2 to 10 years. Region Al developngcountries 16,555 5,338 3,304 SPREADS VARY ACROSS AND WVITHIN REGIONS. Sub-Sanaran Afr ca 200 75 40 The average spread for developing countries was East Asia and the Pacfic 11,484 3,944 i.878 South Asia 1,509 525 60 148 basis points. The highest cost borrowers in Europe and Central Asia 1,506 249 798 East Asia, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea, Latin Anerica and Caribbean 1,514 500 340 Modde East and North Africe 342 45 187 faced spreads of around 160 basis points. Rates in Sector Hungary (250 basis points) and Turkey (181 basis Power 4,597 1,788 783 points) were among the highest spreads paid by Teecommunications .662 673 31 Transpor-tation 427 270 0 developing countries. Argentina paid 140 basis Other nfrastructure 1,307 I80 601 points for 5-year funds. Non nfrastructure 8,562 2.427 1,789 INFRASTRUCTURE FINANCING CONTINUES TO Note. Fourth quarter figures are as of December 7, 1996 Source: Furomoney Loanware and World Bank. DOMINATE THE NMARKET. Infrastructure financing fell both in the fourth quarter and for the year as -- Project finance averages 1 996 1996 1996 Currency composition of -- Q2 Q3 Q4 loan issues, 1 996Q4 Average size of deals _ _- -___ _ _' _____ _-___ _ _ syndicated (US$ millions) 69 95 102 Steartig 1% Average maturity of deas Den 5% (years) 6.5 6.1 6.8 One's 7% Average margin over us5 base rate (bass points) 52 142 148 Secured deas< (percent of project finance) 47 38 33 a. Calcu:ated based on transactions with informat on on cost of bor- row ng ava able. ---- ---- --- ------ ----- --- -b----- s. Deals with extended securec Interest of the nvestors. Socrce: Euromoney Bondware ando \Aood Bank. Source. Euromoney Loanware and World Bank. Fel,ruanl 1997 International lending and capital markets of deals for China, Indonesia, and Thailand, Guinea. The bulk of the financing was insured by which together accounted for the bulk of the the US Overseas Private Investment Corporation region's volume. (OPIC). The majority of the project financing loans for Vietnam received a $40 million loan with a 7- China were in the power sector. Tangshan Sithe year maturity. The loan, which was secured by a Thermal Power Co. borrowed $128 million for lien over machinery and equipment, will be used almost 10 years, with project sponsors contribut- to finance a new sugar producing factory. ing 30% of the project cost in the form of equity. The Republic of Korea raised $123 million in .rrrrangeo 1The project was backed bv a comprehensive secu- the fourth quarter for the power, construction, rity package and letters of support from the and vehicle manufacturing sectors. 9 -yeS provincial and municipal governments. China US FINANCING TO EUROPE AND CENTRAL. ASIA $ 00 raQ% n Power Partners I, ajoint venture betveen the cen- INCREASES. Financing arrangements for Hungary, tral and provincial governments in China, the the Russian Federation, and Turkey increased Asian Infrastructure Fund, and a second private financing to Europe and Central Asia in the -r r,hemir.5 sector corporation, borrowed $60 million in a syn- fDurth quarter, for the highest quarterly total of . .ftiuCSiYVW . .O. ¢E1 1 dication in which the debt to equity ratio was 3:1. the year. United Telecom Investment BV of Hun- The deal attracted strong investor interest and was gary raised $130 million on 9-year terms to finance oversubscribed. a fixed-line telephone network. OPIC provided Indonesia's largest financing arrangement was political risk coverage. a $512 million 12-year loan to two coal-fired power A private electric utility in Turkey raised $267 plants, PT Tenaga Listrik Sibolga and PT Tenaga million to finance power generation equipment. Listrik Amurang. About 75 % of the projects ($586 The bulk of the financing ($240 million) was million) is being financed through loan markets, arranged through a US Ex-Im-backed tranche, with with the rest financed through equity participation. the remainder arranged through a precompletion The deal was secured through the pledging of land standby facility. A $70 million financing for a Turk- and assets, escrow accounts, financial covenants, ish glass manufacturer was arranged by IFC, which and a power purchase agreement. A $138 million provided $30 million. The rest of the financing was loan with a 14-year maturity and a $40 million loan provided by commercial banks. The government of with a 10-year maturity were syndicated for the Sen- Turkey borrowed $65 million for highway con- gkang Gas Field and Power Project. The project is struction in the southern part of the country. being sponsored by Australian and US corpora- BORROWING IN OTHER REGIONS RENMAINS ElM- tions, and 5% of the shares are held by an Indone- ITED. In Latin America GM Argentina raised $200 sian corporation. The bulk of the financing was million through two tranches to finance con- covered by ERG, the Swiss export credit agency, a struction of an assembly line for automobile pro- 20-year power purchase agreement was also put in diction. A $125 million tranche was backed by place. The project is the first independent natural OPIC and carried a maturity of 6 years; a $75 mil- gas-fired power producer in Indonesia. lion tranche was not guaranteed and carried a The International Finance Corporation (IFC) maturity of 4 years. A Colombian company, Elec- arranged a 9-year $300 million loan for Thai trica de Sochagota SA ESP, tapped the market for Petrochemical Industry Co. Ltd., for construction $1140 million to finance a power plant in Boyoca. of a refinery in Thailand. Lebanon Power, the only borrower from the Mid- The only deal from Malaysia was an $89 mil- dle East, raised $187 million for power stations lion loan to finance construction. Repayment is and transmission cables. A public utility company due upon completion of the project. from South Africa was the only borrower from Oil Search (Gobe) Pty Ltd., operated by a sub- Sub-Saharan Africa, and a private company in sidiarv of Chevron, secured a $98 million 7-year India that tapped the market for $60 million was loan to develop two oil fields in Papua New the only South Asian borrower. I FinancialFlows and theDeveloping Countries m International lending and capital markets Market creditworthiness remain manageable, given the country's export and foreign investment potential from oil and - 5 Egypt is assigned mineral resources. S&P analysts believe the coun- Sovereign foreign a Ba2 rating by Moody's try's rating is constrained because of the untested currency debt Egypt received a Ba2 Moody's rating for its long- political system and the short track record of tight Long-term ratigs. os of 0 1 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~December 2, 1996 term foreign currency bonds (table 5). According macroeconomic policies and debt management. Moody's S&P to Moody's. the rating was based on the country's Investment grode manageable external debt, the result of substan- Hungary receives Chn e Baa' A-B' China A3 BBS' tial debt relief extended by creditors in recent investment-grade rating Coombia Baa<' BBB/ years (Egypt rescheduled its external debt twice in In October S&P upgraded Hungary's long-term A+ A the past 10 years) and macroeconomic policies foreign currency rating from BB+ to BBB-. an CAA-/ that improved public sector finances and reduced investnsent-grade credit rating. and assigned a Czeoh Repub c Baa' A' Greece Baal BBB- inflation from 20% in 1991 to 8% in 1996. Eco- long-term local currency rating of A-. According India Baa3 BB+/ nomic growth is projected to reach 5% this year. to S&P, the upgraded foreign currency debt rat- BBB+±1 Irnoonesad Baa3 SBB/ The Ba29rating places Egyptabove Turkey, Brazil, ing reflects the success of disciplined financial and Jordan; on par with Mexico and Venezuela; policies that have reduced Hungary's external Malaysia A A+/ and below Tunisia. Government officials believe debt burden. A downsizing of the public sector, Malta Al A+/ that the rating does not adequately reflect Egypt's together with privatization and modernization of aa'BB economic strength and plan to solicit a rating the economy, is supporting a dynamic export sec- Aaft from Standard and Poor's (S&P) soon. tor and an improved banking sector. The econ- Slovak Republic Baa3 BBB-/ omv also benefited from a reduction in the Slovenia A3 AA" Russia and Kazakstan are assigned government deficit from 8.4% of GDP to about South Africa Baa3 BBJ/ credit ratings by Moody's and S&P 4% of GDP in 1996, and a decline in the net exter- The land BBBA +1 The Russian Federation was assigned a Ba2 credit nal public sector debt burden from 126% of Tunisia Baa3 n.a. rating by Moody's and a BB- rating by S&P in Octo- exports in 1994 to an estimated 54% in 1996. Two Be,ovw investment g.rcde ber. The ratings reflect policymakers' commit- other rating agencies, IBCA and Duff and Phelps, Argentina B' BB-/ BBB-` ment to an orthodox economic package that had already given Hungary an investment-grade Barbados Ba2 n. reduced inflation from 131% in 1995 to about rating, and Moody's has placed the country on Braz B B+/ BB"5 22% in 1996. Improvements in fiscal policy lo-w- review for a possible upgrade to investment grade. Egypt Ba n. ered the budget deficit from 40% of GDP in 1992 Hungary Ba' BBB - A-" to about 7% in 1996 and reduced government Outlook for India improves Jordan Ba3 BB-/ debt to 47% of GDP in 1996, comparable to that S&P revised India's outlook from stable to positive BBB-S aazaesun Ba3 SB- of other similarly rated sovereigns. Accordina to in November, reflecting the country's stronger Mexico Ba3 BB/ S&P, strong international backing from the donor economic performance and prospects and its BBB+"' community has strengthened the country's reforms in investment, trade, exchange rate, tax, Paraguay .a. B-/ credibilitv. and financial sector policies. GDP growth has BBS-" In November Kazakstan received a Ba3 credit averaged 6% a year since 1991, and real exports Philippines Ba2 BB/ BBS+-- rating by' Moody's and a BB- credit rating by S&'P. have grown at an average rate of 12% a year. The Romania Ba3 BB_/ Both agencies viewed the country's shift to a current account deficit has been manageable. FDI TnnB-idao Ba BB* market-based economy as relatively successful, has increased, and external debt has been ser- and Tobago BBB*" noting that a sharp tightening of fiscal and mon- viced even during periods of severe balance of Turkey Ba3 B Uruguay Ba SBB+/ etary policies stabilized output in 1996, reduced payments pressures. BBS-' inflation from 1,256% in 1994 to 27.5% in 1996, Venezuela Ba- B' and cut the government's external debt to 15% of Credit ratings are downgraded cuTrencr debt alid toe second to GDP and 10% of exports, levels that conipare in Pakistan and Turkey domestac currenty oebt favorably with those of similarly rated sovereigns. In response to Pakistan's worsening financing I Stable out ooK. 2. Pos tive outlcok According to Moody's, Kazakstan's debt should position, Moody's lowered the country's sovereign 3. Negative outlook. Fefuaty 1J997 International lending and capital markets 0 currency debt rating to BI from B2. Moody's In response to Turkey's rising fiscal and debt attributed the downgrading to the country's wors- service pressures, S&P downgraded the country's ening financial position. Pakistan's total debt has credit rating from B+ to B. Turkey owes foreign increased by 16% a year since 1991, and external creditors about $73.8 billion and is due to pay debt reached $28.6 billion in 1996. The down- $10.4 billion in interest and principal in 1997. The grade came when Pakistan's interim administra- piublic sector borrowing requirement widened to tion was less than a week old, and the country's 12% of GNP in 1996, up from 5% of GDP in 1995. foreign currency resenves were at just under $650 Analysts are also concerned that debt service pay- million, enough to cover only three weeks' worth ments will absorb 75% of the government's rev- of imports. enue in 1997, up from 60% in 1996. Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment Emerging stock markets LATIN AMERICAN MARKETS GAIN. After a shaky st:art, stock markets in Latin America recovered Emerging stock markets are up for 1996 late in the fourth quarter, with all countries except IFC's Investable Composite Index (IFCI) lost 1 % Peru, Colombia, and Chile posting strong gains in during the fourth quarter but closed the year up Elecember. 7% over 1995, a strong recovery from the 10% The stock marketrose ll% in Argentina in the decline in 1995 (figure 9). The Latin America fourth quarter, as confidence in the economy index rose almost 1% in the fourth quarter, rising returned following announcement of expected 14% over 1995, the largest increase of any region. GDP growth of 5% in 1997. Declining US Treasury The IF( index for Europe, the Middle East, and bond yields gave a further boost to the market. Africa fell 4% in the fourth quarter and 5% for the Issuance of government bonds worth $2 billion year. IFCI'sAsia index declined 0.3% in the fourth was a positive signal to investors, and announce- quarter but gained 9% for the year. China's mar- ment of a $6.1 billion standby loan from the gov- ket posted a double-digit gain, while stock markets einment to commercial banks as a safeguard in Thailand, the Republic of Korea, and Pakistan against financial instability also helped bolster declined by double-digit figures. market activity. Brazil's IFC index rose 7% in the fourth quiar- IFC's Investable Composite Index, by region ter and 30% for the -ear. Confidence in Brazil's July 1994-December 1996 I______ July 1994-Dece m ber 1996 ------~ ---~ ---------- $204 billion stock m arket has risen as a result of a 140 -- - - - sustained privatization program, declining infla- & juy i994= 100 t v Europe, the Middle East, tion, and the government's announced plan to >sand North Afnra arihere to its monetasy policy. 120--r~ w r - F > - _S~~8 - - -- t----Mexico has the second largest stock market in the region, with market capitalization of $104 bil- a~ a / 0 Asia lion. The market declined 1% in the fourth quar- 00 - - - t- ter but was up 18% for the year. According to S V . , an.alysts, market gains reflect the ongoing eco- AS eme nomic benefits of Mexico's relationship with the 80 - - - - u 05---,t- --S (a major source of FDI and financial support), '- ., \u At LatAr America sound economic fundamentals (reflected in a 4% growth rate), a manageable external debt burden, 60 and continued fiscal restraint that should keep - - - ~-. tho deficit below 1% of GDP. S&P revised its out- Source: Internat onal Finarce Corporaton look from negative to positive. M Financial Flows and the Developing Countries a Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment The Peruvian market fell 12% in the fourth Thailand's stock market posted a decline of quarter, posting a small (0.2%) decline for the 28% for the fourth quarter and a 41% drop for the year. year. The slowdown in export growth and the high Chile's stock market fell 13% in the fourth domesticinterestrateshavenothelpedthemarket. quarter, closing the year down 17%. The decline MARKETS DECLINE IN SOUTH ASIA. India's stock was caused by high domestic interest rates, which market fell 6% in the fourth quarter, declining 2% attracted investors to the fixed-income market. for the year, as political instability and allegations Venezuela recorded the strongest stock mar- of corruption in the second half of the year made indoiesia's stock ket in the region, rising 18% in the fourth quarter investors wary. One positive sign was the planned T7arket rose 80/ and 11 8% for the year. The extraordinarv growth introduction of paperless share trading, one of in the market can be attributed to the govern- the major structural reforms in the country's cap- On the ourth ment's steady adherence to an economic stabi- ital markets since foreign investment was allowed uorter end ' 6% lization plan backed by the IMF. in domestic shares in 1993. Once implemented, PERFORNLANCE VARIES IN EAST AStA. The stock the scripless system, by lowering transaction costs h) t.he year market in China jumped 25% for the quarter and and reducing premiums on global depository 37% for 1996 as the B-share market, aimed at for- receipts over underlying domestic shares, may eign investors, surged. Early in the quarter prices encourage foreign institutional investors to recon- of B-shares hit their lowest levels in two years, trad- sider the Indian market. ing at an 80% discount to A-shares (purchased by IFC's Pakistan index fell 11% in the fourth domestic investors). Relaxation of restrictions on quarter and 19% for the year, battered by recent local investors' purchases of B-shares-denomi- economic and political difficulties. Lower antici- nated in US dollars in Shanghai and HKdollars in pated returns for 1997 in the textile industry- Shenzhen-fueled a strong rise in the B-share which is the country's largest export sector and market. The government's announcement in accounts for 25% of the companies listed on the December that the current accotnt would be stock exchange-was also a factor. made convertible by the end of 1997 may also have SOUTH AFRICA DRAGS DOWN INDEX FOR EUROPE, intensified the demand for B-shares. THE MIDDLE ELAST, AND AFRICA. The IFC index for Indonesia's stock market rose 8% in the fourth Europe, the Middle East, and Africa fell 5% for the quarter and 16% for the year. Strong economic year, mainly because of a 20% slide in the group's fundamentals, marked by steady growth of largestmarket, SouthAfrica. Analysts claimed that exports, have encouraged a continuing flow of investor confidence was reduced by the depreciat- FDI. The public offering by the state-owned Bank ing rand, a shrinking official growth forecast (from Negara Indonesia (the country's only privatiza- 3.5% to 3%), rising inflation (from 5.5% in April tion deal in 1996) also rekindled investor to 8.4% in November), and lagging implementa- enthusiasm. tion of market-oriented policies. Other markets in Stock prices in the Republic of Korea fell 20% Europe, the Middle East, and Africa performed in the fourth quarter, down 39% for 1996. well in 1996. Poland's stock market rose 72%, Although the economy is growing, investors are reflecting the country's sound economic funda- concerned about falling exports and a mounting mentals. The stock market rose 100% in Hungary, current account deficit. The market was also hurt 42% in Turkey, and 17% in the Czech Republic. by allegations of corruption against political fig- In Zimbabwe the market rose 73% in 1996. ures and corporate executives and by a 10% decline in corporate earnings in 1996. New equities In the Philippines, the stock market fell 3% in the fourth quarter but closed the year up 13%. New equity issues rise sharply Malaysia's stock market rose 5% in the fourth FOURTH QUARTER ACTIVITY SURGES. The vol- quarter, closing the vear up 24%. ume of new equity issues from developing Febrtary 1997 Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment countries rose 131% to $6.9 billion in the fourth INDONESIAN BANK IS LARGEST ISSUER IN EAST quarter (figure 1O), with Indonesia ($1.2 billion) ASLA. The largest equity issue in the region was the and Venezuela ($1.1 billion) accounting for sale of almost 50% of the Indonesian government's 32% of new issues. This increase in new issues share of Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), the first had been predicted by analysts, who anticipated privatization in the country in 1996 and the first the new deals that came to the market from state-owned bank to be sold. Three other Indone- India, Indonesia, Lebanon, Russia, Thailand, sian entities raised $776 million. China raised $109 The vcki57me and Venezuela. million, and two entities from the Philippines Most new issues in the fourth quarter were raised $382 million. In Malaysia, investors had from Asia ($2.6 billion, up from $1.2 billion in the access to the infrastructure sector for the first time, s S u2si3. .riosU 7 'i third quarter) and Latin America ($2.8 billion, up as Lingkaran Trans Kota raised $149 million. A sec- cl-ye '3b1./Ijg from $1.5 billion). In addition, two African coun- ond Malaysian entity raised $117 million. As apart tries, South Africa and Zimbabwe, raised $578 of the privatization of its mineral resources, the million: the Russian Federation $677 million; and government of Papua New Guinea raised $224 S'S E .c g °, o A 'two countries in the Middle East and North Africa, million in the fourth quarter by selling shares in Egypt and Lebanon, $114 million and $126 mil- Orogen Minerals Ltd. New issues by the Republic lion respectively in the fourth quarter. Privatiza- of Korea (not included in the regional total) fell ,c thue .i? tion activity accounted for 61% of issues (by 19% in the fourth quarter, to $253 million. p; j C1,; .Be j volume) during the quarter, well up from 42% in INDIWX BANK IS LARGEST ISSUER IN SOUTIH ASLA-. the third quarter. Ainidst political scandals that contributed to mar- EQUITIES ARE UP FOR THE WEAR. Developing kcet volatility, the State Bank of India tapped the countries raised $14.5 billion in 1996, some 34% market for $370 million in GDRs. The issue price, more than in 1995. American depository receipts se t at $14.15 a share, included a premium over the (ADRs) and global depository receipts (GDRs) underlying domestic price. accounted for half of all placements. Depository VENEZUIELA LEADS ISSUES IN LATIX AMtERICA. In receipts are attractive because they offer develop- Venezuela's largest ever initial public offer (IPO) ing country markets a greater pool of investors the telecommunications company CANTV raised than local issues, a particularly important consid- $1.1 billion. This was the largest deal to come out eration for large deals in smaller markets. of Latin America in 1996. The ADRs were listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at $23 a I International equity issues, share. [by region Mexican entities raised $299 million during US$ miiimons the fourth quarter, an increase of more than 50% 4.5 Asia7 1E LatinAmerica El ove-r the third quarter. The country's largest Latin America7 F- Other E eq uity offering of the vearwas issued in December 10.8 by Grup Imsa, an industrial conglomerate. The IPO was 150 million American depositorv shares (ADSs). The company offered 12.3% of its equity 6.9 at S19 a share, with an option to increase the issue by 15%. Multicanal Participacoes, Brazil's largest cable | > 3.0 television operator, raised $194 million through an IPO. The issue was priced at $14 a share. Two other Brazilian entities raised another $155 iil- 1995 1996 996Q3 996Q4 lion in the fourth quarter. ----_______-- -- ---- The only niew issue from Peru in the fourth Note:Fquityfigures include omnestc tranches. Souce. Eurom oaey Bendvaare anc Word Bank. quarter was the sale of 50% of the government's OF FinancialFlows and theDevelopin'oCountries Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment holdings in Luz del Sur, an electricity distributor, company launched Russia's first US-style open- a deal that raised $171 million. One entity in end mutual fund. The funds will be regulated by Panama raised $683 million, and an Argentinean the Federal Securities Commission, subject to reg- company raised $109 million. ular audits, and redeemable daily. RUssIAN GAS MONOPOLY IS THE MAJOR ISSUE In December Greece's Alpha Credit banking FROMi EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA. Gazprom, the group launched the $30 million closed-end huge Russian gas monopoly, came to the market Danube Fund to provide equity financing for inthefourthquarterwithal% placemerntofADSs joint ventures and privatized companies in with foreign investors. The issue raised $373.3 mil- Romania and other countries in southeast lion, the largest capital-raising transaction by a Europe. The first three deals approved by the Russian company to date, with about half the deal fund involve an investment of $4.5 million injoint placed in the US. The issue was priced at 14.75 a ventures in Romania. Fund managers plan to share, a higher price than had been expected invest two-thirds of the funds in Romania and the since valuing the entire company at that price remainder in Albania, Bulgaria, FYR Macedonia, would make Gazprom one of the world's largest and Moldova. The European Bank for Recon- energy companies, wNith assets equal to the value struction and Development will take a 20% stake of the entire Russian stock market. Gazprom may in the fund, making an initial commitment of $3 exercise the greenshoe option and expand the million; the International Finance Corporation issue by 15%. Analysts believe the deal was imnpor- (IFC) has committed $2 million. Also in Decem- tant for the Russian Federation's attempts to issue ber, Euromerchant Bank launched the $10 mil- a benchmark eurobond. In a second deal, 5.24 lion, closed-end Euromerchant Albania Fund, million ADSs were issued by Vimpel-Communica- which is expected to focus on private-sector con- tions, the country's largest provider of cellular struction and manufacturing conmpanies and pro- telecommunications services and the first Russian jects in energy and agriculture. 7Dev i o Developing-country company to qualify for an NYSE listing. PRUDENTIAL AILL lAUNCH FUND AIMED AT funds: top discounts FEW OFFERINGS ARE ISSUED IN THE MIDDLE E.AST ASLA. Prudential will set up the $1 billion Invest- and premiums AND NORTH AFRICA. Issues from the Middle East Direct Asia in 1997. The fund will provide devel- Percentage difference between net included a $77 million GDR issue bv Solidere. the opment capital for infrastructure projects and asset vane and share pnce largest company in Lebanon. The real estate com- growing companies in China, India, and fercertage panv is rebuilding Beirut's commercial district. In Largest csconts a second deal in Lebanon the Banque Libanaise -,w> r s Developing countries' Jupiter Interratonal pour le Commerce issued $35.4 million in GDRs best-performing closed-end Green Inv. Trust pkc equity funds (ordanary shares) -44.38 and $14 million in an IPO. In Egvpt the Suez u I _ Bang adesh Fund -41.42 Cement Company issued $114 million in shares. Percent NMumbe Avera ge retur Jupite European Inv. Market aff[inas Decernber 1996 Trust prc The company is the first Egyptian industrial com- Cne 3 6.72 (ordinary shares) -39.96 pany to obtain a listing for its GDRs on the Lon- Brazil 3 5.05 CH China Emerging Europe 9 4.42 Investment Ltd. -33 26 don Stock Exchange. India 12 4.13 Sub Anan Fund -33.11 Indonesia 9 3 84 Largest premiums New funds are created for African, Ceh ssR a a 3 46 Dyniamic Eastemr Czech Rpubl c3 2.48 One Fund 54.2 European, and Asian markets Mexco 3 1.94 Sinpinyo Eght Fund 4274 AFRIcA INVTESTMENT FUND IS LAUNCHED. In Argentina | 4 1.91 jupiter European Inv. Latin America l 8 1.91 Trust plc (zero dividend Novensber, Regent Pacific launched the open-end Emerging markets 23 1.7 preferred shares) 36.30 $50 rillion Africa Investment Fund. The fund will Africa IO °.31 Henderson Eurotrust Vietnam 5 0.48 plc (zero d vidend have its primaryvlisting in Ireland, with secondary Turkey 3 0.37 preferred shares) 34.24 listings in Kenya and Botswana. Phi pp.nes 4 0.05 Z-Seven Fund Inc, 25.00 Cnhile 5 -4.42 .se sa eebr396 NEW FUNDS ARE LAUNCHED IN EUROPE AND Thailand 33 -8 94 SNteuAe of Deceter ana3 996. al an , U - ~~~~~~~~~Source. Lipper Internatonal Closed- CENTRAI. ASIA. A Moscow-based investment Scurce Lipper International Cosed-End Funds Service Erd Furds Service. Februasy 1997 Equity portfolio and foreign direct investment Vietnam. Meanwhile, China is planning to open Caribbean countries, mainly Chile, will provide its domestic A-share market to a limited number about 11% of projected investment. of foreign fund management companies in 1997. The Chinese central bank authorities expect for- Competition to invest eign fund managers to raise funds from China's in China intensifies domestic market and invest in A-shares; in return, Competition among foreign companies to invest the foreign partners are expected to bring in new in China's heavily regulated entertainment indus- Cn0r,pertio technology. try has become intense, with Disney, MCA, Sony, direct Viacom, and Time Warner pushing for greater a,njong roreflg-n§ Foreign direct investment access to the market. A US group led by MCA ccsmccres oJaponese FDI . siderations appear to have had a stronger impact 60 ------ o----- ---- ----------- ----. ------------ c. the volume and direction ofoJapanese FDI than 4J i . conventionally believed. Previous studies have dis- / \ counted the role of profitability because of evi- 40 ~~~~~ ~ ~~~ -- - --- ----/F ---,- - ---- -- ---< - - Ss,i/' dence of risingJapanese FDI and low profitability on investments in industrial countries during the past 10 years. 20 --- ---- --- ---- -- -- Reported accounting profits on Japanese FDI may not be an accurate indicator of true prof- itability, however. Rates on corporate profits < i i ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~(i:ncluding on income earned from overseas 982 983 i 984 1985 !986 1987 !988 1989 1990 199j 1992 i 993 i 994 -__ investments by Japanese residents) are high in Source: Japanese Miristry of Finarce, Finonciol Statistics of Jopan. and Monthly F0a-nyc- Renew s, various ssues. Japan, buit the system allows a credit for taxes paid :- ~~~~~~~~~~~bs a Japanese investor in the host countrv. As a Regional distribution of Japanese FDI percent result, Japanese tax rates are likely to determine the effective tax rate on income from Japanese 5Al Europe F)I, and reported after-tax profits of Japanese Asia overseas firms may understate the full benefit of 40 U Latin America the investments. | Other g The empirical results provide some support 30 g | for this view. The profitability of local investments in the host country was found to be a significant determinant of Japanese FDI, while changes in 20 u i local tax rates appeared to have little effect. In creases in the effective tax rate on corporate 0 investment in the US after the 1986 Tax Act, for example, were associated with a suirge injapanese FLuI to that comunry. It is possible that the increase 1971-80 1981-85 /986-90 1991-94 in US taxes in 1986 may have actually improved Soea ,nne c o n aneniy -anc- Faccthe profitabilitv ofJapanese FDI, since the higher Source- 3ank of Japan, B3iance cf Payme,-,ts, varous issues: Japanese M nist-y of Fi-ance, Finencda Stotistics 3f' jopon; and Monthy Fancalde Renes, va-ios issues tax: rate may have reduced investment by domestic 4 Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Financial brief firms, thus increasing the pretax rate of return on much Japanese FDI in the second half of the capital without greatly affecting the tax regime 1980s was, in fact, made to obtain technological facingJapanese investors. knowledge. Research and development. Countries with rela- tively high expenditures on research and devel- 1. Kwang W. Jun and Joosung Jun. 1996, opment received a relatively high level of 'Japanese Foreign Direct Investment: Trends and Japanese FDI. In the past, studIies have argued Determinants," World Bank, International Eco- that FDI depends, at least in part, on the presence nomics Department, Washington, D.C. of valuable technological knowledge that is held 2. See K Kojima, 1993, "A Macroeconomic exclusively by the multinational firm. In contrast, Approach to Foreign Direct Investment," Hitosub- this study supports Kojima's argument that ashi Journal of Economics 14(1) and K. Kojima and Japanese FDI is in part motivated by efforts to T. Ozawa, 1984, "Micro- and Macro-economic obtain the technological knowledge ofhost-coun- Models of Direct Foreign Investment," Hitotsub- try industries.2 Anecdotal evidence suggests that ashijouirnal of Economics, 1984, 25(1). 1Febltuay 1997 Stiatistical app endix T ',3L-,. I New bond issues for 1 996Q4 Bonds greeter then US$ 150 million Total nomina! eamount equivaierrt, Indstry issue Issue Spreed FOnra Issuer country mriions) Issuer Issuer type sector Currency prce type at eunch coepon faterity Russia 1,000.0 Russ an Federaton Govemrnment SG US$ 99.56 Fixed 345 9.25 5 years Argent na 1,000.0 Republic ofArgentina Government SG US$ 99.58 Fixed 445 11.00 10 years Maaysla 800.0 Petroliam Nasiona Bhd (Petronas) Pub c OG USS 9979 Fxed 57 7.13 0 years Brazil 750.0 Federative RepublicofBrszi Government SG JS$ 99.86 Fxed 265 8.88 5 years Greece! 656.4 Hoenic Republic Government SG DM 01.70 Fixed 80 6.75 0 yeaes Argentinal 649.2 Republic ofArgentina Government SG DM 01.25 Fixed 295 8.50 8 years 2 months Malaysia; 600.0 Petrol am Nasional Bhd (Petronas) Public OG US$ 99.62 Fixed 38 6.63 5 years Malaysia: 500.0 Petro am Nasional Bhd (Petronas) Public OG US$ 98.65 Fixed 84 7.63 30 years Turkey 497.2 Republic of TLrkey Government SG DM 10 .35 Fixed 280 7.63 5 years Argentina 444.. Repue c ofArgentina Government SG YEN 99 00 Fixed 346 6.00 8 years 4 months Argentina 396.1 Repub ieofArgentna Government SG L-a 100.75 Fxed 276 10.00 0 years Argentina | 328.3 Republic ofArgentna Government SG L ra 1006. Fixed 305 1.00 7 years Mexico 326.9 United Mexcan States Government SG DM 101.98 Fixed 3 8 8.13 7 years I montns Argentina' 324.0 Republic ofArgentina Government SG DM 01.25 Fxed 497 .75 30 years Thailanrd 300.0 Tota Access Communications Pr vate TC US$ 99.77 Fixed 200 8.63 10 years Public Co Ltd South Africa 300.0 RepUD c ofSouth Afrca Government SG US$ 99. 2 Fixec 195 8.38 10 years Mexico 300.0 Petroleos Mexcanos PRi c OG US$ 99.80 Fixed 175 7.75 3 years Brazil 2500 Globo Comunicacoes e Private MP USs 99.44 Fxed 437.5 10.50 10 years Par-icipacoes Ltda Brazil 250.0 Petrolec Brasile ro SA Petrobras Public OG US$ 99.78 Fxed 350 0i00 0 years S ovak Repub c, 200.0 Vodohospodarska Vystavba Government EU US$ 99.69 Fixed I i5 7.25 0 years Philippines 200.0 JG Summit Pn ipp nes Ltd Private IC US$ 99.53 Fixed E80 8.00 5 years 6 months Mexico 200.0 Trnsportacion Maritima Private TS US$ 99.63 Fixed 395 10.00 10 years Mexicana SA de Cs' Mexico 200 0 Banco Nacional de Obras Pub ic BF US$ 99.72 Fixed 358 9.63 7 years y Servicios Publicos SA Kazakstan, 200.0 Republic of Kazaksastan Government SG US5 99.87 Fxed 360 9.25 3 years Argentina F 199.9 YPF SA Public OG Era 100.98 Fixed 209 8.75 5 years a. AM s automotive, BF s banking-financial services, CB is central ba-k, CM is chemicas, CN is construction, EC s electronics-electrica, EN is enggneering, EU is energy util-y., FC s financias csrpsra:e, FD is fooc and drink, FP is forest procucts-packaging FR is fiancia repackaged, HC is healthcare pha-maceu:ical, C is ndustra-conglomerates IS s iron stees, T is nvestment trust company, LA is loca authorty, MA s manufacturrg, MO is metals and ores MP s media-publishirg, OG sol-coal gas, RC is retalirg consume-goods, RE s real estate RELis raiways, RP is rubber pastics SG is state authorty-government TB s tobacco, TC is telecommunications, and TX s teti es-coth ng, Souree. Euronmorey 3Sncware Em Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix _TL o'l New loan issues for 1996Q4 ___ Loon amount grecter than US$ 150 milWion Total omount Borrower Borrower (US$ equ!voient, COLcr/,t} Borrocver 'cme type Carrency milnions) 'Voturty Alargo0 Mexico United Mexican States Government US$ 6,000.0 5 years LIBOR: 200 bp Czech RepLrb c I SPT Telecom AS Publ c US$ 750.0 5 years LIBOR: 25 bp Chie Co lahuas Mining Project Private US$ 500.0 Indonesa PT awa Power Private JS$ 494.0 15 years LIBOR: 50 bp Indonesia PTJawa Power Prvate US$ 396.0 4years LIBOR: 138 bp Indonesia I PT Gajah Tunggal Nederland BV Prvate USS 360.0 5 years LIBOR: 97.5 bp Indonesa PTTenaga LstrikSibolga, PTTenaga LstrikAmurang Private IDRb 512.1 2 years JIBOR Tha and Tha Petrochemica Industry Co Ltd Private US$ 300.0 9 years LIBOR: 175 bp Russia Oskol Electrometallurgical Kombinat (OMK) Public DM 265.6 8 years Turkey Trakya Elektrik Uretmn ve TicaretAS Prvate US$ 240.0 3 yrs 6m LIBOR: 25 bp China Hua Fei Colour Disp ay System Co Ltd Public US$ 200.0 5 years LIBOR: 100 bp Lebanon Lebanon Power Private US$ 187.3 Colomb a Compania Electrica de Sochagota SA ESP Private US$ 140.0 Hungary UTI-United Telecom Investment BV Private US$ 130.5 9 years LIBOR:250 bp China Tangshan Scthe Therma Power Co Ltc Public JS$ 128.4 9 yrs 9m LIBOR.225 bp, LIBOR: 190 bp Argentina GM Argentina Private US$ 125.0 6 years LIBOR:90 bp from I yrto 2 yrs. 112.50 bp from 3 yrs to 6 yrs Indonesia Sengkang Gas Field & Power Project, PT Energi P. ivate US$ 14.6 14 years LIBOR: 125 bp, LIBOR: 137.50 _ Sengkang (PTES) bp, LIBOR 150 bp a LIBOR s London irterhank offered rate; JIBOR is Jeddah interbank offerec rate b. Indonesan apiah. Source. Eurormoney Loanware. Febntasy 1997 Statistical appendix ABLE A.3 New equity issues for 1 996Q4 Tote! nosmino, BhGre arnount offer (US$ pnce ! equivcient Shore (US$ Issuer country | m,liions) typea Issoer eoulemoient) Argentina 27.0 A,X,M Banco de Ga ic a y Buenos A res SA 18.00 8 1.5 A,X,M Banco de Ga ca y Buenos A.res SA 8.00 Total 08.5 Brazil 52.0 ,S.G Brazil RealrySA Emoreendimentos e Participacoes 20.00 j 8 0 I,S Brazil Realty SA Empreendimentos e Participacoes 2.05 56.5 I,G,X Bompreco SA Supermercados do Nordeste 16.50 28.8 I Bompreco SA Supermercados do Nordeste 8.47 38.7 I,A,M,X Mult canal Partopacoes SA 14.00 6.3 IA,MX Mult canal Partic pacoes SA 4.00 38.8 I,M Muticanal Participacoes SA 44 Tota 349.3 China 6 I Chongqing Chargar Automobi e Co Ltd .89 20.6 1 Huangshan Tourism Development Co Ltd 0.26 26.8 R Konka Group Co Ltc 6.28 Total 108.6 Chile 6 9 A,M,X Compan a Cervecerias Un das SA 6.00 27.7 AMX Compan a Cereeras Unidas SA 6.00 Tota ! 34.6 Egypt I114.3 G,X Suez Cement Comnpany SAE 14.75 Total 14.3 Hungary 22.2 GV X BorsodChem Rt 8 50 Tota 22.2 Indonesia 194.5 ,V PT Bank Negara Idonesa(Persero) 850.00 202.4 IV PT Bank Nega-a I rcones a (Persero) 850.00 69.6 G,X PT Kawasan Industr Jababeka Tbk 11.09 47.0 i PT Sierad Produce Tbk 900.00 48.9 I PT Sierad Produce Tbk 900.00 6 610.6 B.V PT Teekornunikasi Indonesia (Pesero) 3,700.00 Tota i 1,173. India ! 370.0 G,X State Bank of India 14.15 Total 370.0 Lebanon 77. I G.X Solidere I .50 35.4 G,J,X Banque Libanais pour le Commerce 80 3.7 I Barcue Libaras pour e Commerce .20 Tota l 126.2 Litnuania j 6.0 C B za: MilkJont-Stock Co 12.50 Total 1 6.0 Ma ays a 1 .0 I L ngkaran Trans Kota Ho d ngs Berhad- LITRAK 5. 10 37 9 I L rgkaran Trans Kota Ho d ngs Berhad- LITRAK 3 60 1 7.3 B Sime Darby BerhaJ 8.95 Tota j 266 Mexcoa 48.0 C,U,X ControladoraConmercial MexicanaSAdeCV 18.46 19.8 U Controladora Cornerc:a Mex cana SA de CV 7.00 22.2 A,X,M GRUMA SA de CV 18.50 44.4 A,X M GRUMA SA de CV 8.50 22.4 M GRUMA SA de CV 37.00 38.0 I,A,M,X,U Grupo Imsa SA de CV 9.00 66.5 I,AM,X,U Crupo msa SAde C\/ 1900 37.8 MX,U Crupo msaS A de CV 16.63 Total 299.1 Papua New Gu nea. 0.4 1,V,GM,X OrogenMinerasL:d 2.00 41 2 I,V.M,X Orogen Minerals L:d .70 36.6 I,V,M,X Orogen M ne,als L.d 1 57 35.4 ,V,M,X Orogen Minerals L:d 2.00 Total 223.6 0 Finanacal F lows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix .>0 +3 New equity issues for 1996Q4 (continued) __ _ __ __ Totra nominal Share amount offer (US$ price equivalent, Share (US$ Issuer countl r m'Hllons) typea lssuer equivaient) Panama 136.6 I Carnival Corp 29.50 546.2 I Carn val Corp 29,50 Total 682.8 Peru 2 1.8 A,V,M,X Luz del Sur SA 18.00 4 .9 v,M LuzdelSurSA 3.10 06.9 V,M Luz del Sur SA 3.10 Total .70.7 Ph pp nes 01.5 I Dygtal Telecommunications Phi s Inc 0.1 1 43.5 I Dgital Telecommunications Phils Inc 3.00 i 1 27.1 X Bank of the Philippine Islands 125.00 09.5 Bank of the Philippine Islands 125.00 Total 38 1.8 Russia 429.3 A,l,X PRAO Gazprom 15.75 30.5 I,A,X,M V mpel-Commun cat ons 20.50 97.0 I,A,X,M Vimpel-Communications 20.50 120.4 A,,X AO Tatneft 45.00 Total 677.I Sourh Africa 93.3 A,X AECI Lto 23.00 413.2 A South African Brewe-ies Ltd 25 43 Total i 506.5 Thailand 28.2 X Siam Makro Pub ic Co Ltd 102.00 34.5 Siam Makro PubicCo Ltd 102.00 Tota 62.7 Turkey 1 1.8 I,X SASA Sun i ve Sentet k Eyaf Sanay AS 7,200.00 | 15.8 I SASA Sun i ve Sentetik Elyaf Sanayi AS 7.200.00 Total 27.6 Venezrela 36 .6 A,l,M CANTV Compen a Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezrela 23.00 542.3 A,l,M CANTV Compania Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela 23.00 239.7 I.M CANTV Compania Anonima Naconal Taelfonos de Venezuela 1,546.75 Total - 143.6 Zimbaowe 1 71.5 MeiklesAfrica Ltd 1.32 Total 7 .5 Note. Numbers may not sum to tolas shown because of rounding. a. A isAmerican depostory, B is boughtdea./block, F sfund, G is goDa depository. I is initial puebic ofer, M :s mu ttranche, Vis prvatization, and X is Crossborder. Source Furomoney Sondware. February 1997 Statistical appendix Bank and trade-related nonbank claims US$ millions 1995Q4 Trnde relted Bonk Guaronteed nonbGnk County group or country 199 1992 1993 1994 199qqQ2 Tetol caoims cloims doims All developing countries 746,945 781,927 792,838 848,869 922,449 948,159 770,668 125,838 177,491 EastAsia and the Pacific 131,902 154,326 171,581 208,466 24 194 271,368 236,642 25,684 34,726 Europe and Central Asia 189,401 189,423 193,1 13 198,304 224,068 223.455 183,766 34,080 39,689 Latin America and the Caribbean 244,805 257,599 258,058 264,069 267,949 27 1309 234,934 30,106 36,375 Middle East and Nonrth Africa 100,0 18 95,751 92,040 95, 99 i 00,662 94,606 59,567 20,967 35,039 SouthAsia 21,566 25,083 23,265 26,322 28,233 27,976 23,198 6,873 4,778 Sub-Saharan Africa 39,253 59,745 54,781 56,509 60,343 59,445 32,561 8,1 28 26,884 Severely indebted middle-income 250, 92 256,703 256,648 261,744 266,642 265,052 223,1 69 24,243 41,883 Argentna 36,356 39,640 35,671 38,942 41,397 41,748 35.033 3,406 6,715 Bolivia 534 604 691 681 746 734 407 35 327 Brazil 71,931 74,069 76,872 70,897 74,775 78,166 68,867 3,261 9,299 Bulgaria 8,909 8,067 7,140 3.899 4,061 3,728 2,892 424 836 Gabon 2,051 1,952 1,828 1,822 1,741 1,755 64 133 1 14 Ecuador 4,553 4,198 3,661 3,926 3,338 3,565 2,972 360 593 Jamaca 737 753 717 865 380 920 657 150 263 Jordan 3,297 2,869 2,700 2,575 2,629 2,769 1,587 700 1,182 Mexico 72,485 75,687 78,819 85,699 8 1,895 78.512 7 ,091 3,817 7 421 Panama 22,926 22,725 23.955 26.235 26,845 25,626 25,407 164 219 Peru 6,143 6,423 5,972 6,357 7,334 7,891 4,61 1 233 3,280 Syrian Arab Republic 1,107 1,034 1,229 1,263 1 366 1,2 14 564 51 650 Severely indebted low-income 57,1 81 58,425 56,573 55,963 59.828 57,055 3 1,819 5,659 25,236 Moderately indebted low-income 23, 41 26,579 24,397 27,042 29,05 28771 23,554 6,764 5,217 Moderately indebted middle-income 284,336 29 390 283,426 290.960 314,910 316,5 9 246,503 59,511 70,016 Selected countriesa 339,536 366,096 383,9 12 428,9 3 465,643 492,219 414,333 72.947 77,886 Chile 9,149 1 1,188 1 1,293 13,674 i3,791 15,687 4,396 829 1,29 China 41,381 48,566 56,299 66,736 72, 67 77,690 67471 I1,324 10,219 Colomba 8,479 8,795 9,244 0,330 1 ,196 12,014 10,825 1,517 1,189 Cote d'lvoire 4,042 3,986 3,625 3,532 3,684 3,521 2,052 296 1,469 Egypt 13,569 1 886 10,448 0.049 10,520 1 0,774 3,194 1,252 7,580 Hungary I 1,151 9,289 8,004 8,761 9,51 1 8,889 8,108 806 781 India 15,383 18,601 16,460 18,308 19,351 18,990 16,135 4 178 2,855 Indonesia 39,773 46,967 44,730 50,126 56,726 60,549 51,065 7,0 16 9,484 Maaysia 10,062 12,886 7,937 16,853 18 865 19,886 17,762 1,8 8 2,124 Morocco 8,053 7,994 7,410 7,747 8,180 7,501 5068 2,678 2,433 \igeria 12,896 13,386 2,348 12421 13,999 3,174 3,164 1,605 i 0 010 PhiliDpines I I,839 1 063 10 7 5 1 1 370 12,486 12 907 8,155 2,315 4,752 Thailand 24,953 30,552 37,872 59,581 76,729 96,1 18 90,165 2 9 1 9 5,953 Turkey 23,094 24,425 29,238 24,442 26,445 27,725 23,792 8.538 3,933 Uruguay 1,991 2,58 2,776 2,483 2,415 2,962 2,847 61 I 5 Venezuea 19,475 20,158 18,672 16,198 15,868 14,757 13 80 5,043 1,577 Offshorebankingcenters 119 142 135.967 147,872 154 94 178,079 186673 1793 6 6,073 7,357 Oil exporters 185,856 187,950 133,775 135,689 41,67 133, 58 86,81 28, 32 46,347 DRS reporters 139,563 142,242 87,385 82,219 85,891 82,081 51,127 24,519 30,954 DRS reporters 673, 82 708,689 781,915 851,91 933,903 964,685 8I2,416 119,902 52,269 Note- See country c assifications at the erd of th s stat stica appendix. a. Most of these cocntr es are also included in the indebted country groups. Source: OECD; 8ank for Internat onal Settlements, Stotistrs on Externci Indebtedness. Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix rAELEA.S Commercial bank claims on developing countries US$ millors Claims Liabilties Country group or countrry j 1994 1995Q3 1 995Q4 1996Qi I994 995Q3 995Q4 1 996Q I All developing countries 69 9 19 763,108 794,934 80 R500 605.5 15 686,849 702.726 709,867 EastAslaandthePacific 175.202 2i7,988 237.009 244,893 96,641 101,651 103,666 102,677 Europe and Central Asia 1 56,330 78.400 182,202 187,175 121,972 150,478 50,969 151519 Latin Amerca and the Caribbean 231,051 235,497 247,433 245,615 160,895 191,636 205,400 208,626 Moddle Eastand NorthAfrica 73,837 71,920 67,102 63,912 139 970 49,486 47,470 148.738 South Asia 23,852 26.751 27,777 27,8 6 52,958 57,515 59,378 63,165 Sub-Saharan Afrca 3 3.647 32,552 33,41 1 32,089 33,079 36,083 35,843 35, 42 Severely indebted middle-income 226 216 229,334 237,467 236,221 .48,825 178.804 186,556 186,749 Argentna 32,552 34,08. 34,918 33,900 19,181 21,646 24973 24,692 Boliva 414 420 508 501 960 911 998 1,097 Brazil 61,794 68.353 73,153 75,496 35.840 58,540 60,271 59,579 Bugara 3,153 2.952 2,829 2,655 1,596 1,816 1,881 1,494 Gabon 763 596 638 591 646 731 695 757 Ecuador I 3,253 2,943 2,846 2,972 3,495 3, 96 2.303 2,641 Jamaica | 604 602 554 543 816 .096 954 959 Jordan 1,352 1,269 1,333 1,205 6,334 6,700 6,675 6,654 Mesico 76,833 70697 73,324 71.871 25,876 27,531 33,525 33879 Panama 33,264 34,427 33,344 32,132 40,348 42,390 39,465 39,500 Peru 3.320 4, 35 4.978 5,317 5,251 4,313 4,551 5,096 Syrian Arab Republic 575 586 557 543 6,050 7,046 7.533 7,721 Severely indebted low-income 31,922 31,243 31,496 31,281 36,255 36,805 37,321 37,044 Moderately indebted low-income 20,887 23.857 23,894 24,626 20,400 22,845 21,698 23,703 Moderately indebted middle-income 217 989 235,484 239,197 243,788 175,527 190,976 194,017 189,513 Selected countries' 348,464 388,142 4.0, 82 415,554 231,059 244,941 249,832 250093 Ch le 12,284 1 2,768 3,900 13,223 11,402 1,428 11,999 11,6 18 Ch na 5 5r,464 61,564 67,077 70,185 59.952 57,803 57,428 55,023 Colomba 9,005 10,279 10,53 10,751 8,547 7,522 7,436 7,414 Cote d Ivo re 2,040 994 .959 1,847 2,226 2,149 2,075 2,278 Egypt 3,074 3,014 3,101 2,972 27,970 29.305 27.265 25,133 H-ungary, 7,928 8,148 8,036 7,646 1,967 1R846 2548 2,393 India 5,488 16,667 7,049 17,443 10,382 12,751 12,609 14,568 Indonesia 41,621 48,466 48,935 50,484 10,388 1 387 1 1,482 1 1,657 Maaysia 14,477 16.733 18,750 19.018 10,324 11,853 l3,034 15.1 16 Morocco 5.050 5481 4.916 4,861 6,703 6.509 6,225 3,029 Nigeria 3,642 3,211 3,067 2,991 4,594 3.7 1 4.001 3,708 Phil[ppines 6,543 7,370 8,076 8,890 6,749 6,507 7,339 6,483 Thailand 54,442 82,196 92,160 94,31 1 7,041 11,547 1 1,807 1,700 Turkey 16,969 19,882 20,272 20.644 18,9 1 24,560 23,800 24,471 Uruguay 2.380 2.359 2.989 3.151 5.507 5,558 6,272 6,292 Venezuela 13 376 12,100 1 1 684 1 1,441 20,864 2 .722 20,502 21,593 Offshore banking centers 1,164 365 1,276,984 1,285 460 1.254,556 .052,276 1,073.833 1,083,943 1,070,932 Oil exporters 103,349 101,791 99,238 98,860 162,511 169,768 169,143 177,911 DRS reporters 50,944 49.224 47,895 46,852 43.672 45,135 44,506 44.527 DRS reporters 709,691 795.852 830,079 845,154 533,388 602,786 611,671 6 4,331 Note See country c assifications at the end of this statistcal apperdsx. a. Most of these countries are also ncluded in the inoebted country groups Source Bank for International Settlements, lnterrotnoal Boneng and Financtol Morket Developments. Februa?y 1997 Statistical appendix 3LE A Commercial bank claims on developing countries, by country of ol-igin _ __ _ _ _ US$ miilions Ccrnsod Germonya CounL-y group or countr/ i 993 1 994Q4 1995Q1 I 1995Q2 ! 995Q3 995Q4 ! 996Qi 1996Q2 All developing countries 6,587 14,936 15,89 16,830 74, 24 80,561 184,194 180,069 EastAs aand tle Pacic .. 26 1,479 1,348 1,401 20,785 24,033 25,805 24 607 EuroDe and Central Asia 490 302 304 287 72.386 72,533 73,534 69,901 atn America and the Carbbean 1 14,128 2,220 3,061 13 817 34,597 34,766 34,900 35,329 Middie Eastand NorthAfrica 295 342 313 465 17,070 16.985 6 537 16,170 South Asia 438 433 570 564 10,439 1 1,102 ,i72 0,9 14 Sub-Saharan Africa 10 160 294 296 7,861 8,063 8.384 8 285 Severely indebted middle-income 6,034 6,329 6,546 6,387 35,891 36,217 36,5 6 37,249 Argentna 680 709 793 917 8,495 7897 7,698 7,970 Bo ivia - -- 3 433 431 416 434 Braz l 2,736 2,383 2,422 2,388 11,070 10,934 i 1,621 12,333 Buigaria - - 1,200 1,150 1 26 1,077 Gabon -- -- 56 58 54 49 Ecuador - 246 207 201 208 Jamaica Jordan - - - 530 534 517 525 Mexico 2,312 2,926 3 004 2,7 i4 4,8 5 5.369 5,160 4,99 Panama 234 225 240 276 2,426 2,908 2,694 2,779 Peru 73 87 87 90 982 975 942 921 Syrian Arab Republic 645 645 691 683 Severely indebted low-income - - 16 5 330 6,429 6,673 6,130 Moderately indebted low-income 224 264 335 250 10,394 10,685 0,579 10,407 Moderately indebted middle-income 2,049 2,265 2 395 2,26 72,695 72,146 72 7 2 71,089 Selected countriesb 4,829 5,918 6,0 6 5,639 55 621 59,462 60,506 58,655 Chile . 476 540 598 607 .752 1,910 1,832 1,950 Chna 255 473 410 491 6261 7,021 7,915 5,339 Colombia - - - 7 ! 6 .902 1,866 84 CGte dlvoire - - - 358 379 369 354 Egypt - - - 2,876 2,902 2.822 2,804 Hungary -- - 4,224 4,340 3,997 3,619 India 224 260 335 250 7,892 8,139 8,193 8, [5 Indonesa - - 7.058 7,497 8,164 8303 Malaysa 38. 297 234 248 ,233 ,326 1,291 1,479 Morocco - - -- 1,276 ,257 1 78 1,214 N geria - - 569 553 497 478 Phillpones 266 297 322 223 760 805 797 854 Thaiand 224 412 382 440 5,222 6,318 6,649 7,579 Turkey - 8.245 8,277 8,442 8 633 Uruguay - - --- Venezuela 688 675 709 649 1,252 !.286 1,203 1,174 Offshore banking centers 0,602 1 ,610 2,046 13,486 06,256 122,347 13 .402 26,849 Oil exporters ,088 1,383 1,420 1,432 .5,987 16,840 17,259 6 C86 DRS reporters . 037 1,247 1,297 1,272 8,656 8,499 7,829 7.474 DRS reporters 12,255 1,908 2,802 13 226 154,452 158 778 61,162 157,147 Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix Commercial bank claims on developing countries, by country of origin (continued) JS$ mislions Itoiy Netherlondsc Country group or country | /994 1995Q4 1 996Qi 996Q2 1993 / 994 1 995Q2 1995Q4 All developing countries 27,346 27,977 27,1 11 27,494 22,232 26,041 28,523 28,647 East Asia and the Pacifc 1 52 33 50 54 3,527 5,161 6,323 6,1 0 Europe and Central Asia I 7,954 8,001 7,276 7,191 4,372 4,576 5,675 4,200 Latin America and the Caribbean 9,234 9,872 9,824 10,209 10,334 11,678 1 1.939 14,145 Mddle East and North Africa 619 611 618 639 2,027 1,841 1,976 1,555 South Asia 3,067 3,408 3,523 3,662 486 1,353 1.000 1,247 Sub-SaharanAfrca 1,136 939 912 873 1,106 1.2 3 ,322 1.198 Severely indebted middle-income 7,439 7,797 7,939 8,373 6.725 8,209 8,865 10,474 Argentina 3,469 3,555 3,645 3,552 1,425 1,622 1,732 1,797 Bolivia 8 - - - - - Brazil 1 1,675 2,115 2,098 2,290 2,772 3,139 3,376 4,1 66 Bulgaria 341 337 321 312 - - - Gabon - - - - - - Ecuador 164 76 74 105 360 391 264 319 Jamaica - - - - Jordan - - - - - - - Mexico 11,622 1,449 1,527 1,524 1,704 2,058 2,584 3,6I7 Panama _ - - - 465 779 909 573 Peru 61 264 275 592 - 220 - - Syrian Arab Republic - - - - - - Severely indebted low-income j 722 538 499 463 Moderately indebted low-income, - - - - 1,270 907 1,048 856 Moderately indebted middle-income 9,059 8,904 8,431 8,343 9,224 9,939 1 ,596 10,691 Selectedcountries,, 4.085 3,857 3,864 3,783 9,349 12,333 3,910 13,375 Chile 355 391 340 323 625 667 653 810 China - - - - 582 1.221 1,147 138 Colombia 412 429 474 472 613 749 765 706 Cote d'lvoire 12 IS 15 15 - - Egypt - - - - Hungary 213 264 241 237 - 354 457 Indi - - - 971 472 537 Indonesia 1- - - -, 768 2,353 3,265 3,584 Malaysia - - - 282 475 474 476 Morocco 298 274 275 271 - Nigeria 710 522 484 448 - - - Philippines 52 33 50 54 315 439 532 846 Thailand _ - _ - 580 67 907 1,065 Turkey - - _ - 1,308 1,373 1,537 - Uruguay 263 296 296 297 659 757 697 699 Venezuela j 709 753 732 710 831 787 771 762 Offshore banking centers 21,483 20,592 19,864 20.258 11,289 14,706 17,492 20,202 Oil exporters 12,716 12,364 1 1,698 1 1,558 3,237 2,357 2,588 2,447 DRS reporters 7,431 7,25 6,791 6,691 2,834 2,052 1,997 1,929 DRS reporters 1 1,734 1 1,933 11,987 2,310 16,605 21,204 23.721 24,433 (table continues on next page) February 1997 1 Statistical appendix -A3U-A.6 Commercial bank claims on developing countries, by country of origin (continued) US$ millions Switzer/end United lingdom' County grup o, couty 992 /993 994 1 995 1991 1992 .993Q4 994Q4 All developing countries 22.994 24,79 27,795 28, 87 44 653 43,862 5. ,0 9 54.857 East Asia and the Pac.fic I.829 2,93 3,048 4,363 4, 14 4,239 7,8 9 9 7 8 Europe and Central Asia 5,569 5,549 5,145 5,076 9.736 9,355 10,043 10,845 LatinAmercaandthe Carbbean 9,498 0,231 2,817 12,041 17,527 i8061 21,365 21,302 Mddle East and North Afrca 3,164 3, 36 3,293 3.323 4,203 3,425 4,205 5,209 SouthAsa 718 975 019 1,485 1,698 8 4 1 775 2,297 Sub-SaharanAfrica 2,215 1,969 2,474 1,899 6,766 6,832 5.766 5,486 Severely indebted middle-income 1,049 1 ,388 13,883 12,665 5,633 15,772 18.8 3 19,023 Argentina / ,604 1,365 1,82 2,970 2,738 2,797 3,088 3,883 Bo ivia j 6 25 43 47 6 17 49 59 Brazil 2,821 3,023 2,232 2,C88 4 04 4 274 5,572 S, D00 Bulgarna 248 264 75 40 233 1 91 231 89 Gabon 8 7 10 . 0 7 47 30 Ecuador 132 i45 l63 116 514 471 474 483 Jamaica 1 8 2 2 18 7 76 68 95 Jordan 06 82 96 110 357 270 302 282 Mexco 2,369 2,860 5,2 3,199 5,611 5,943 7,0 2 6895 Panama 3,295 3,222 3,749 3,252 061 1,148 1,4 9 ,671 Peru 172 151 203 535 342 226 302 277 Syrian Arab Repub c 19 21 33 34 58 42 3 i Severely indebted low-income 1 2,006 ,733 738 553 2,968 2,486 2,388 2,480 Moderately indebted low-income 1,081 1,077 578 2,139 2,123 1.898 2,326 Moderately indebted middle-income 7,033 7,379 7,6 2 8,013 .5,607 15,33 16,906 17 423 Selected countries' 8,9 7 10,66 13,184 i 2 924 8,J46 8,050 23,398 24,715 Chile 624 690 1,066 1,073 704 582 729 920 C nra 495 337 680 .060 ,031 942 2,369 3,223 Colombia / 29 374 561 625 6 3 647 810 1,028 C6teo'ivoire / 100 99 H5 84 155 162 123 172 Egypt 383 339 287 317 594 430 726 796 Hungary 63 77 88 78 299 268 226 365 India 4 7 63. 538 971 1 64 1,207 162 507 Indonesa 3i7 593 742 1 28 .231 1,253 2,03 2,467 Malaysla 150 509 295 313 605 689 1,094 h.H I Morocco 13 17 41 92 35 368 263 272 N geria 1 200 109 68 55 702 477 375 239 Philippines 12 165 38 403 717 761 885 702 Thailand 633 i,010 164 1,447 424 485 ,3 0 2,014 Turkey / 1,617 , 534 , 293 1,295 1,134 1,053 658 1,100 Uruguay 06 218 242 180 85 227 251 333 Venezuea 839 844 629 641 2,241 2,466 2,476 .746 Offshore banking centers 18,826 21,244 21,138 24,376 25 943 24,063 47,343 5 .506 Oil exporters 5,29 4,398 4 586 4,826 10,096 9,793 0,16 9,563 DRS reporters 2,942 2, 1 57 ,970 2,002 7,86 . 7 705 6,919 4,902 DRS reporters 23,264 26, 89 29 295 30,825 36,183 35,850 43,765 48,532 ' Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix ?ABLEAE Commercial bank claims on developing countries, by country of origin (continued) US$ miluons United Stctesc Country group or countpy i 995 1 996Q1 1 996Q2 i 996Q3 All developing countries 90,378 93 018 97,646 03,479 East Asia and the Pacific 13,507 13,953 16,042 17,076 Europe arc Central As.a 8,626 9,266 0,239 12,181 Labn America and the Caribbean 60 920 62,086 63,21 1 66,668 M ddle East and North Afr ca 2,782 3,030 3,327 3,001 South Asia 2,277 2,363 2 336 2,182 Sub-Saharan Africa 2,266 2.320 2,491 2,371 Severely indebted middle-income 46,898 47,688 48,744 50,197 Argentna 1 1,3 1 1,309 1,893 13,377 Boiva 140 156 178 210 Brazil 14,802 16,283 16,380 16,043 Bulgaria 73 1 8 82 45 Gabon 6 5 5 4 Ecuador 770 903 940 1,073 Jamaica 137 148 146 153 Jordan 60 34 54 32 Mexico 18,374 17,503 17,363 7220 Panamiia I 573 541 631 857 Peru 604 640 934 1,135 Syrian Arab Republic ! - - 90 Severely indebted low-income 953 1 060 1,001 887 Moderately indebted low-income 1,975 2,004 1,941 2,025 Moderately indebted middle-income 25478 26,216 27,327 30,387 Selected countriesb T 47,177 46.846 48.513 50,583 Chi e 4,307 4,051 3,958 3,857 China 1,732 1 973 2,269 2,418 Colonmba 3,173 3,117 3,090 3.4 4 Cote d mvoire 29 24 43 38 Egypt H7 129 177 164 Hungary 411 533 486 590 India 1,615 1.542 !.425 1,506 Indonesia 2,909 3,316 3 693 3,684 Malaysia 1,536 1,395 1,903 2,388 Morocco 47 502 440 424 Niger a 287 299 258 62 P'hnippnes 3,0 8 2,633 3,423 3,541 Thailand 4,312 4.636 4.754 5,045 Turkey 1,504 1.539 .848 2,126 Uruguay 1 1,21 1 1,297 1,403 ,422 Vene-uea 3,12 3,382 3,055 3,660 Offshore banking centers 3 .485 28,848 30,736 30,433 Oil exporters 7 708 8,134 8.161 9,652 DRS reporters 5,405 5.718 5,350 7,242 DRS reporters 89,750 92,709 97,241 100.578 Not available. Note Ths tabe shows the latest available data from each major creditor country. See country classfications atthe end ofthis statistca appendix a. Partly corso dated aggregate claims of banks and the r worldwide operat ors. b. Most of these countries are also inc uded n the ndeotec courtry groups. c. Conso idated clairs of nanks and thei' wor dwide operabons. Source. Deutsche Bundesbank, Zoh1urgsbilcnzstcstjsik: Banca d'Ita a. Bolietino Econormco: De Nederandsche Bank Quorerly Bulietin, 3anque Nationae Suisse, Ees Bonques Su,sses; Bank of Eng and, Stoosscr Abstroct, Porn i, Federal F.nanc al nstitutions Exam nat oc Counci. U S Country Exposure Lending Survey. Feberuay 1997 Statistical appendix TABLE 7 Maturities of bank claims on developing countries US$ millions i 996Q2 More then Less then I yeareor d less More thin Estimeted Short term Country group or country 1995 Totb I yeor then 2 yeors 2 yeers Unelocated short temnm (% of toto!) All developing countries 679,447 708,615 378,275 49,439 229,948 50,953 330,275 47 EastAsiaandthe Pacfic 183,381 203,009 1 19,865 13,206 57,910 12,028 107,963 53 Europe and Centra Asia 175,551 80,354 86,064 16,1 35 62,353 15,802 70,353 39 LatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 213,558 221 532 17,291 12,869 72286 19,086 104943 47 Middle East and North Africa i 52,245 49,740 24,961 4,051 9,985 743 20,295 4 South Asia 22,074 23, 89 1,692 1,308 8,584 1,605 1 0.349 45 Sub-Saharan Africa . 32,638 30,79 1 8,402 [,870 8,830 1,689 16,372 53 Severely indebted middle-income 204,876 21 1,654 109, 95 11 3,77 72,626 8,456 97,892 46 Argentina 39,181 39,475 2;.047 2,543 12,050 3,835 18,829 48 Bol via 399 451 322 4 64 6 1 317 70 Brazil ,1 57,391 63,359 36,469 3,027 17,554 6,309 33 053 52 Bulgaria 3,007 2,679 554 1 87 1,457 481 292 I Gabon 1 640 558 322 73 57 6 247 44 Ecuador 2,780 3,091 1,483 68 ,307 233 1[406 45 Jamaica 644 758 281 3:2 220 225 23 30 eordan i .138 981 528 97 252 104 471 48 Mexico 57,331 37,065 27,240 3,59'0 20,485 5,750 23,837 42 Panama [ 27,723 27,246 11,860 1,423 1 2,705 1.258 10,453 38 Peru o 5,6 7 7,065 5,534 267 ,J44 120 5 340 76 Syrian Arab Republc 47 572 345 218 9 342 60 Severely indebted low-income 27,3 15 26,636 j3,C72 ,751 10,956 857 1 079 42 Moderately indebted low-income 22,093 23,031 1 1.867 .317 8,483 1,364 10,518 46 Moderately indebted middle-income 238,096 247,855 119,443 22,493 90,965 4,954 97,986 40 Selected countries'[ 339,873 358,605 91,078 25,233 1 8,15 1 24,143 167 26 47 Ch ae 13,616 13,507 7,79 848 4,658 2 0 6,731 50 China 48,399 50,649 24,527 4,148 17,780 4,194 20,926 41 Coombia [0,940 12,06 3 531 ,[83 5,026 32 4,775 40 Cote d'lvo re, 993 1,878 .708 30 136 4 1,663 89 Egypt 3.487 3,236 2,077 264 872 23 1,734 54 Hungary . 9,104 8,456 2,955 602 3,293 .,606 2,201 26 Inda 15,446 5,723 7,132 1,050 6,271 270 6038 38 Indonesia 44,843 49.624 29,922 3,471 14, 68 2,063 26,765 54 Malaysia 6,759 20,070 9,910 833 6,843 2,484 8,763 44 Morocco 4,654 4,426 2,075 305 2,043 2 735 39 Nigeria 2,826 2,537 .089 22.5 1,129 94 726 29 PhFippnes 8.325 10,79 5 943 531 3,710 607 5,598 52 Thaland [ 62,994 69,675 48,064 4,083 14,926 2,602 44,528 64 Turkey 18,623 20 21 10,1 8 2,027 6740 1 236 8, 57 4 Uruguay 3,748 4,053 2,885 1013 003 57 2 814 69 Venezuela 11,940 10.894 2,492 894 6 06 1,402 ,743 16 Offshore banking centers 658,672 615,345 477,742 7 826 87,723 32,054 46 ,5 0 75 Oil exporters 129,669 26,907 59.899 9.484 54,156 3,368 48,559 38 DRSreporters 102,506 99,180 41.741 8,9:4 45,444 3081 31,057 31 DRS reporters 662,234 699,488 391,500 42,685 212,016 53.287 350,738 50 Note: See cou ntry class fications at the end of this statistica append x. a. Most of these countres are also ncluGed in she indebted country groups. Source: Bank for Internatonal Settements, The Mcturiy and Sectoroa Distribution of /nternmtonol BGnk Lending. Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix -B F A Funds raised on international capital markets U5$ mili/ons Country group or country 1992 1993 994 1995 995Q1 995Q2 1995Q3 1995Q4 1996Q1 1996Q2 All developing countries 36,358 70,539 68,173 81,644 3624 19924 26,358 21,738 35,391 30,.41 Bonds 19. 54 51,374 43,853 44,&17 3,149 11,068 16,698 13,903 30,271 22,1 15 International 13.302 37,174 33,668 29,169 1,965 8,556 10,354 8,294 24,983 14,874 Foreign 1 5,852 14,200 10,185 15,648 1,183 2,512 6,343 5.609 5,288 7,241 Loans | 7.204 9,165 24,320 36,827 10,475 8.856 9,660 7,835 5,120 8,026 International 17,033 18,968 24,225 36,827 10,475 8,856 9,660 7,835 5.092 7,806 Fore gn 170 197 95 - - - - - 28 220 EastAsiaand the Paafic 10,693 18.894 27,1 26 25,452 4,857 4,532 9026 7,037 5,973 6,635 Europe and Central Asa i 9,642 20,264 1 3,632 19008 4,7 8 6,097 4,079 4,1 5 16,6 1 8 6,063 LatnAAmercandthe Caribbean | 9 518 27,338 20,438 24,788 995 6.189 8,985 8,619 1 1 275 13,283 Middle East and North Afrca 3,070 337 102 1,51 1 284 268 202 758 South Asia 20 567 ,656 2,954 1,053 488 1,063 350 413 1,324 Sub-SaharanAfrica 1,273 102 1,864 3,674 906 948 1,214 606 81a I 992 Severely indebted middle-income 7 913 22,674 1 8,363 20,835 700 5,852 7,914 6 369 9,378 1,450 Algeria , __ - - - -- - Angola 325 12 - 124 - - 124 - 30 - Argentina j 1,529 6,473 5,716 6,983 405 .5 2 2, 90 2,876 3.443 3,233 Bolis'ia _ - I0 _ - - - - Braz, 3,0 0 6449 4,011 6,635 158 3,114 1,437 1.927 2,325 3,384 Bulgaral - - - - - - - Ecuador - - 0 - - - 10 - Gabon - - _ - - -' jamaca - - - - - jordan - - 50 - - 50 - - Mexico 3,374 9.751 8,526 6,957 137 1,077 4, 87 1,556 3,610 4,833 Panama - - i50 - 150 - - Peru - - 100 50 - - 50 - - Po and 9 - 3 549 - 299 250 - - i50 Syrian Areb Republic -- - Severely indebted low-income 441 84 557 563 10 235 158 160 560 Moderately indebted low-income 316 657 1,656 2,954 h,053 488 1,063 350 4.3 1.324 Moderately indebted middle-income 13,334 25,207 19,209 26,930 3,483 7,431 7,295 8,720 9,861 8.131 Selected countriesa 21.659 44.280 4 1,945 45,81 1 6,1 85 8,991 1 7,648 12.987 1 2,628 6,478 Chile 350 775 80 .,448 245 377 451 375 1,132 703 China 1 4,043 6,756 8,097 6,258 1,582 553 2265 1,858 1,200 1,838 Colombia | 621 172 2,082 50 H0 393 1,529 745 1,040 Cote d'ivoire Egypt - - 18 58 - - 58 - - Hungary .446 5.071 2,541 3,771 252 1,788 1 036 695 145 501 lnd.a i 201 475 1,461 2.263 644 303 966 350 413 892 Indonesa 2,641 3,726 6,199 7588 .440 2, 35 1,895 2,119 2,401 2.508 Maaysia 1,271 1,61 3.526 3,205 - 250 2,252 703 300 667 Morocco 60 - - 25 25 - - N;geria - - - - - _ - - - Philippines i,250 i,1 64 .272 - 340 333 599 147 945 Thai and 2,718 5,550 7,9 0 6,634 1.836 I 254 2,246 1,298 1,925 677 Turkey 4,580 5,763 851 3,929 - 805 1,623 1,50 590 ,784 Uruguay 120 140 203 206 - 206 - - - Venezuela 1,035 2,93 400 346 - - 346 20 90 Offshore banking centers 2.058 9.476 8,574 4,939 85 1,582 1 153 1,354 1,622 1,380 Oil exporters | 4,445 3,503 2,8 7 3,949 68 715 1 420 1,646 650 150 DRS reporters 1,460 3,157 .498 1,566 140 .080 346 405 90 OECD countries i 392,920 510,550 498,21i1 723,203 53,078 195,135 76,669 198 321 219,954 224,340 Multiateral nstitutions 20,874 20,71 12,373 17,674 2,257 5,291 5,870 4.257 5,802 5,743 Other .961 3.037 2,353 4,257 812 1,403 1,789 253 30 844 Totalb i 458275 619,986 598,005 844,596 173.J06 225. 30 2i4,952 231,409 267,566 267.702 -Not available. Note: See country c assif caliors at t5-e end of this statist,cal apperddia. a Most of these countr es are also ncluded in te indebted country groups. b. Inc udes al de\eeoping countres, offshore barking centers, OECD countries, nultlateral insttutions, ana the category other. Source OSCD, F,rnnc,oa Stotsicts Mzonthiy, P0t 1. Febiruag 1997 Statistical appendix A 9 Secondary market debt (bid) prices Percentage offace va,'ue I Country group or country 1 994Q2 1994Q3 994Q4 995Q ! 995Q2 ! 995Q3 ! 995Q4 I 996Q ! 996Q2 996Q3 ! 996Q4 Severely indebted middle-income Angola 1 20 18 15 - - 17 16 19 18 22 25 Argent nal 50 51 41 40 48 47 56 52 55 55 60 Brazilb 41 44 40 36 45 48 52 S l 53 57 61 Bulgaria 25 45 45 42 50 5 53 50 52 5 53 Cameroon 16 !7 10 - - 13 14 [6 16 16 8 Congo 13 3 11 - - 13 12 15 16 18 22 Ecuador' 40 33 29 27 48 49 50 54 36 37 44 Jamaica 83 83 83 - 82 -- - 76 74 77 81 Jordan 47 48 42 33 39 44 47 54 53 57 58 Morocco 72 72 66 58 58 63 67 69 72 76 81 Panama 49 59 53 - 53 59 45 48 48 51 Peru 48 60 56 51 61 68 7 Poland 35 37 33 31 43 43 47 49 50 51 55 Uruguay - - - - - __ - - - Other selected countries Albania 12 6 16 16 18 21 22 14 3 2 3 Ageda ! 43 46 30 28 28 - 46 55 - 61 Chile! 95 95 95 - - - - - - Costa Rica' 66 66 66 - 51 52 54 60 59 67 75 CdtedIvoire 18 19 !8 .5 '5 16 16 20 19 19 26 EgyDt 46 47 48 48 48 48 48 49 47 - 47 Honduras 39 36 36 - 27 - 35 38 40 Mexicoe 63 66 53 47 60 6( 64 64 66 67 7 Nicaraguaj 8 8 6 - 5 -- 8 9 7 [0 12 Nigera 1 40 39 39 37 43 44 48 52 53 56 63 Phil Appres' 63 65 59 59 73 74 74 79 80 81 87 Russian Federationg - 39 28 22 32 33 34 34 42 62 76 VenezueFaej 49 49 45 43 50 5! 59 56 60 65 79 -Not availab e. a. Guaranteed Refinarcing Agreement (GRA). Prices after March 1993 refer te oar bonds offered under the Brady initative. b. Mul[i-Year Deposit Fac ity Agreement (MYDFA). Prices after April 1994 refer to par bonds offered unde, the Brady nitiative. c. Mu[t -Year Ref nanc ng Agreement (MYRA). d. Pr ces refer to Series A par bonds offered u-der 'he Brady ntiat ve e. Prces referto pa- bonds o-ered underthe Brady ritative f. Publ c sector restructured debt, ncluding Centra Bank oftre Phil ipnes. Prices refer to restructured oans offerea undetotre Brady nitiative. g.These a-e non-performing loans of the Russian Vnesheconambark. Source: Salomor Bronhers; Euroseek Eimerging Mcrket Debt Reporu irtemctirncn Fincncig Reiiew; ard World Bank data. * Financial Flows and the Developing Countries Statistical appendix Emerging stock markets Market ccpitalizotion VoVe of stock traded Price-eernings rotio (US$ miilhons) (US$ millions) (percent) Economy 1996Q2 1996Q3 1996Q4 1996Q2 996Q3 1996Q2 i996Q3 1996Q4 Argentina 44, 08 40,574 47,748 1,183 896 20.4 28.7 38.2 Brazi 1 91,287 93,911 203,716 26,584 32,381 30.1 21.3 14.5 Europe and Centra As a 85,590 87,044 90.975 12,630 10,404 81.5 70.8 71.1 Chile 72,713 70,253 68,236 2, 46 1,894 16.3 16.1 14.6 China 72,473 85.990 70,787 40,637 70,735 12.7 12.8 27.8 Coombia 14,981 5,660 16,697 366 392 9.5 10.2 10.4 Greece 23.717 24,733 23,990 1.498 1,902 9.4 9.9 10.5 Hungary 4,239 4,631 4.815 334 390 35.5 20.4 17.5 India 150,671 133,746 119,233 8,061 8.053 6.8 13.5 12.3 Indonesia 79,216 79801 87, 68 7,539 7,501 22.4 20.2 21.6 Jordan 4.209 4,383 4,509 64 72 12.9 14.0 18.7 Malaysia' 271,290 281,269 307,284 42, 37 37,727 27.7 26.4 27. Mexico I 110,700 13.670 103.138 13,617 8.628 10.0 15.5 16.8 Nigeria 2,665 3,170 3,384 15 .0 .0 .0 10.1 Pakstan 10,608 1 1.538 1,419 1,738 1,069 5.0 12.2 11.7 Peru 1 .3.653 5,170 13,864 844 1,020 17.4 19.5 14.2 PhOlippines 79,970 77,852 79.545 7,308 5,939 35.6 23.0 20.0 Poland 8,014 8,644 8,140 1,374 1.220 1 1.4 14.0 14.3 Portugal 20,653 21 359 22,936 1,374 ,490 15.4 15.9 18.1 South Africa 270,903 252,514 245,693 1,409 6,169 [8.9 18.7 16.3 Sri Lanka 1,777 1,739 1,848 21 19 11.3 11.7 9.7 Taiwan(Chnna) 232,878 235,069 264.080 167,171 103,278 26.9 26.6 28.2 Turkey 28,967 27,677 3 .094 8,050 5.402 9.8 10.6 10.7 Venezuela 5,343 6.869 9,144 242 278 33.7 37.7 32.5 Zimbabwe 2547 3,044 - 47 47 13.0 15.5 12.9 Not ava lable. a. Data for Malays an-incorportated comcanies only. Source: Irternationa Finance Corporation, Energing Stock Markets Factbcok. Fe ay 1997 Statistical appendix Country groups East Asia and the Pacific Georgia* Costa Rica' Jordan' Gabon* American Samoa Gibraltar** Cuba** Iibya** Gambea, The' Cambodia* Greece** Dominica' Morocco0 Ghana' China* Hungary' Domin can Repuboic' Oman0 Guinea* Fji. Isle of Man Ecuador* Saudi Arabia-0 Gu nea-Bissau* Guam Kazakstan* El Savacor Syrian Arab Republic' Kenya* Indonesa* Kyrgyz Repubic French Guana Thn sia* Lesotho* K.ribati** Latvia* Grenada* Y emen* Madagascar* Korea, D.P.R. of* Lithuania* Guadeoupe Malawi' Lao P.D.R.* Macedonia, FYR of' Guatemala* South Asia Mali* Malaysia* Mata* Guyana' Afgharistan** Mauritania' Marshall Islands Moaova* Het Bangladesh* Mauritiust Micronesia Poland* Honduras' Bhutani Mayotte Mongolia* Portugal* Jama ca* Itd a' Mozambique* Myanmar* Romania' Martinique avesp Namibia** New Caledonia0 Russian Federation* Mexico* Nepal* Niger* Papua New Guinea* Slovak Republic* Nicaragua' Fakostan* Nigeria' Phrlippines* Siovenia* Paraguay* Sranka Reunion Solomon Islands* Taj Kistan* Peru' Sub-Saharan Africa Rwanda* Thailand* Turkey* Puerto Rico Angola* Sao Tome arc Pr ncipe* Tonga* Turkmenistan* St. Kits and Nevis' Benrn* Senegal* Vietnam* Ukraine* St. Lucia* Botswanae Seycnel.es* Western Samoa' Uzbekistan* St. Voncent* Burkina Faso* Sierra Leone' Europe and Latin America and STriname** Buroud* Somau a* Central Asia the Caribbean Uruguay' Cape Vero* Sudn* Albania* Antgua and Barbuda** Venezue.a* Centre. Afrcan Repubic* Swaziland' Azerba an' Argentina** Chtad Tanzia"* Belarus Aruba Middle East Cnaor Tozai Bulgaria' Belize' and North Africa Comoros* Togoa Croatia Bolva* Algenae Congo* Uganda* Czecn Republic' Brazil' Egypt Arab Rep. of' Cte ob voire* Zamoa* Estonia* Chile* Irn, Islamic Rep. ofD Former Yugoslavia* Co ombia* lrae00 Equatorial Guinea' Zimrabwe0 Etchopia' Severely indebted Severely indebted low- Macagascar M1oderately indebted Co ombia middle-income income countries' Mali low-income countriesa Egypt, Arab Rep. of countries' Angola Maurtania Burk.na Faso Greece** Argentina Afghanistan* Mozambique Bangladesh Hungary Bolivia Burundi Myanmar Bcrin Indonesia Brazil Camboda Nicaragua Clad Macedonia, FYR of Bulgaria Cameroon Niger Comoros Morocco Cuba** Central Afican Repuboic Nigera Gambia, Toe Papua New Guinea Ecuador Congo Rwanda Hait Phi ipp:nes Gaoon CBte dclvoire Sae Tome and Principe cnoia Poland Iraq** Equatorial Guinea Sierra Leone Lao P.D.R. St. Vncent Jamaica Etniopia Somalia Pakistan Russian Federation Jordan Ghana Sudan Senega Trinidad and Tobago Mexico Guinea Tanzania Zmiroabwe Tunisia Panama Gu nea-Bissau Togo Turkey Peru Guyana Uganda Moderately indebted Uruguay Syrian Arab Republic Honduras Vietnam middle-income Venezuela Kenya Yemen countries' Western Samoa L beria Za re Algeria Malaw Zamba Crile Offshore banking Caymac Is ends Singapore Brunei Nigeria` centers0 Hong Kong Vanuatu' Ccngo* Oman' Baramas Lebanon* For-mer Soviet Union* Qatar Bahrain** L:beria* Oil exporters Gabon' Saudi A-ab a* Barbados* Macao Agena" Iraru, Is.amic Rep of' Trinidad and Tobago' Bermuda Nether ands Anti! es Ango a* Iraq** United Arab Emirates Panama Bahrain** Libya** Venezuea* DRS reponter. \Jeon-DRS economy. The remain ng countres ncluce selected h gy-income and non-OECD midd e-income countries. The Debtor Reporting System (DRS), set up in 195 i to mon ror statistics on the extemal debt of developing countr es, is mainta ned by the staff ofthe Internationa Development Data Group ofthe Wor d Bank s InternaJona Economics Department. The World Bank .s the sole repository for these statistics on a oanb-y- oan basis. Noter Country group compositon has been mod fed to refectthe annual updating efGNP per capta and related des- incicators. a. All countries n the group are DRS reporters, excest those for which t is ctnrwise indIcated b. Offshore banking ce-ters are not ncluded in any other country groUD except for oi exsorters. D Financial Flows and the Developing Countries World Bank quarterlies Commodity Markets and the - --- ------------------------------------------ s Yes; p1e0.c:; sntea y subscriptlop 10.0 t ' Developing Countries . org' bun. oreies s in e Not just the facts, unbiased analyses. The World Bank isn't in the business of selling commodities. As an international lender putting _ Commodity Markets and the Developing Countries millions of dollars at risk every day, we demand objectivity regard- US$1501year ing the commodities markets that play such an important role in Financial Flows and the Developing Countries developing countries. That is why you get unbiased forecasts that US$150/year are based on our own research. Four times a year World Bank commodity experts examine pro- J Enclosed is my check for US$ drawn on a US bank and duction, consumption, and factors from climate to exchange rates payable to the WVorld Bank in US dollars. For payment in local currency, to give you the intelligence you need to make better decisions. please ask for the distributor in your area. 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For information about the contents, call Sheilah King-Watson, 202-473-3730 or fax 202-522-3277. The opinions expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its Board of Executive _ Directors, or to the countries they represent. It is published quarterly in February, May, August, and U November. The annual subscription rate is $150.00. I ! Send subscription orders to World Bank Publications, Box 7247-7956, Philadelphia, PA 19170- 7956, USA, telephone 201-476-2192. f 1997 The International Bank for Reconstruction h and Development/The World Bank F 1818 H Street, NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA All rights reservedid A Manufactured in the United States of America Vol. 4, no. 2 ISSN 1020-0975 iSBN 0-8213-390 1-XF Printed on recycled paper Ad AN>.