JUNE 2014 91230 Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen Dennis (Overview), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High -income), Gerard Kambou (Industrial Production), Derek Chen (Business Sentiment), Eung Ju Kim (High-income, Finance and Overview), John Baffes (Commodities and Focus Section) and Damir Cosic (Commodities), Sanket Moha- patra (Exchange Rate), Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Inflation and Trade), Thanh Nguyen (Statistical Annex), and Kristina Cathrine Mercado (layout). John Baffes, Allen Dennis, and Ekaterine Vashakmadze contributed to the Focus Section. The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns. This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group. World Bank lowers projections for the global economic outlook. In the recently released Global Economic Pro- Overview spects, the World Bank reports that the global economy got off to a bumpy start in 2014 buffeted by poor weather in the United States, financial market turbulence and the conflict in the Ukraine. As a result, global growth projections for 2014 as a whole have been marked down from 3.2 percent in January to 2.8 percent now. Despite the early weak- ness, growth is expected to pick up speed as the year progresses and world GDP is projected to expand by 3.4 per- cent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016 – broadly in line with earlier forecasts. The bulk of the acceleration will come from high-income countries (notably the U.S. and the Euro Area) as reduced drag on growth from fiscal consolidation, improving labor market conditions and a steady release of pent -up demand in these countries are projected to over- come first quarter softness (which was largely influenced by transitional factors). High -income GDP is projected to grow at 1.9 percent in 2014, from 1.3 percent in 2013, and to 2.4 and 2.5 percent in 2015 and 2016. Developing country growth to pickup slowly, as tailwinds from stronger high -income growth are countered by capacity constraints and an eventual tightening of financial conditions. The outlook for developing countries is for flat growth in 2014. This marks the third year in a row of sub-5 percent growth and reflects a more challenging post -crisis global economic environment. The flat yearly profile masks an expected firming of activity during the course of 2014, with developing country growth reaching 5.4 and 5.5 percent in 2015 and 2016 — broadly in line with potential. The outlook reflects countervailing forces. On the one hand, the high -income acceleration will supply an important tailwind, with their contribution to global growth expected to rise from less than 40 percent in 2013 to nearly 50 per- cent in 2015. As a result, high-income import demand is projected to accelerate from 1.9 percent growth last year to 4.2 percent in 2014 and as much as 5.0 percent in 2016, and developing country exports from 3.7 percent last year to 6.6 percent by 2016. On the other hand, a medium term outlook for tightening financial conditions, capacity con- straints in some economies, and declining commodity prices (for the commodity exporters) represent headwinds to growth prospects. Performance will however differ across countries (see next page and focus section for details). JUNE 2014 Output to accelerate, but outturns Output gaps remain small in most developing regions have disappointed GDP, % annual growth 8 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 7 6 Retail sales growth (%, 3mm sa) 5 4 3 2 1 0 East Asia & Europe & Latin America Middle-East & South Asia Sub-Saharan Pacific Central Asia & Caribbean North Africa Africa 17 14 Source: World Bank. Regional Outlooks The East Asia Pacific region continues to adjust to more balanced growth, while dealing with accumulated imbalanc- es. Growth is projected to ease to 7.0 percent in 2016 reflecting offsetting effects of moderation in China and pick -up in the rest of the region as adjustment in large ASEANs eases, exports firm and tensions subside in Thailand. Volatili- ty and eventual tightening of global financing conditions related to policy normalization and the possibility of a sharp slowdown in China, represent major risks to the regional outlook. A diverging recovery is underway in the developing Europe and Central Asia region. The recovery in the Euro Area is boosting exports in Central and Eastern Europe. For the countries further east, which are highly exposed to weak- ening activity in Russia and declining commodity prices, near -term prospects have weakened. An escalation of politi- cal tensions between the EU and Russia is a key downside risk to the regional forecasts. Activity in the Latin America and the Caribbean region has been weak reflecting stable or declining commodity pric- es, the drop in first quarter U.S. GDP growth and domestic challenges. Firming regional exports on the continued recovery among advanced countries and strong capital inflows should lift regional GDP growth from 1.9 percent in 2014, to 2.9 percent in 2015 and 3.5 percent in 2016. The region faces a major risk of slower longer term growth un- less productivity enhancing reforms are stepped up. In the Middle-East and North Africa, activity in oil-importing countries remains weak, but is exhibiting signs of an uptick. Oil-exporting countries have seen their oil output recover too, albeit not to pre -2011 levels. Political transitions continue to unfold with a number of elections being held in 2014, delaying measures to address persistent structural challenges. Meanwhile, fiscal and external balances remain weak. Overall, growth in developing economies is ex- pected to pick up to 1.9 percent in 2014 and strengthen to about 3.5 percent by 2016. South Asia’s GDP grew 4.7 percent in 2013, about 2.6 percentage points below average growth in 2003 -12, mainly reflecting weak manufacturing performance and slowing investment in India. Growth is expected to pick up modestly in 2014, and then rise to about 6 percent in 2015 and 2016, with firming global demand and easing domestic con- straints offsetting a tightening of international financial conditions. Key risks include weak monsoon rains and stressed banking sectors. Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP grew 4.7 percent in 2013 led by robust domestic demand, and is set to continue to rise. Despite emerging challenges, the medium-term outlook remains positive. Supported by investment in the resource sector, public infrastructure, and agriculture, GDP growth is projected to remain stable at 4.7 percent in 2014 and to rise to 5.1 percent in 2015 and 2016. The outlook is sensitive to downside risks from lower commodity prices, tighten- ing global financial conditions, and political instability. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Risks to the Outlook Focus Section Acute global risks emanating from high income countries have subsided considerably. That said, some earlier risks remain and new ones have risen to the fore. In the Euro Area, sliding inflation has raised real interest rates, po- tentially slowing the recovery. Inflation expectations remain anchored so far, but downward adjustments could un- leash a pernicious debt-deflation cycle and undermine the ability of monetary policy to support the economy. In Ja- pan, the key risks are that the sales tax hike might significantly dent the domestic recovery, while medium -term pro- spects will depend on the degree to which supply-side reforms succeed in boosting growth. In the US, there are signs that the recovery in some asset markets is running ahead of the economic cycle, driven in part by very low interest rates. If conditions stay very loose too long some of the same kind of vulnerabilities that built up prior to the crisis of 2008 could re-emerge. Increasingly, these risks are being balanced by the possibility of better than expected growth, particularly in the Euro Area, in light of recent monetary support measures announced, and the US. Risks to developing countries are less acute than a year ago but remain Although risks are reduced compared to last year due to financial and policy adjustments, developing countries remain vulnerable to volatility in global financial markets and other risks. Tighter global financial conditions over the next five years as monetary policy is normalized in high income economies is inevitable (although the timing and extent of the tightening remain uncertain). And it will imply weaker financial flows and rising costs of capital for developing countries. If interest rates rise too rapidly or there are sharp pullbacks in capital flows, economies with large external financing needs or rapid expansions in domestic credit in recent years could come under considerable stress. Moreover, market sentiment could become unsettled around key decision points associated with the normalization of high-income monetary policy, for instance the timing of the first policy rate hikes in the US. Heavy external financing needs (high current account deficits, and large amounts of short-term debt) make a country more vulnerable to reversals in international capital flows and increases in interest rates. The most vulnerable to a deterioration in financing conditions include countries that rely more on portfolio flows (as opposed to less volatile remittances and FDI) to furnish foreign currency. Some 18 devel- oping countries find themselves with external financing needs that exceed their foreign currency reserves, with requirements exceeding 10 percent of GDP in many cases. Tail risks include the rebalancing of China’s economy amid a cooling property market, and an intensification of coun- try-specific problems in other systemically important large middle -income economies such as Turkey that could be the spark for volatility in global financial markets, with contagion spreading to other developing economies with similar weaknesses. Geo-political risks remain elevated, including the conflict in Syria. A further sustained escalation in ten- sions in Ukraine — either militarily or in the form of tit-for-tat sanctions — could have significant impacts on global economic confidence, especially if they increase uncertainty to the point that investors and consumers hold back on spending. A physical disruption of energy and grain supplies would take a further toll on the already weak economies of Russia and Ukraine, and set back a nascent recovery in the Euro Area (a major buyer of Russian energy) although significant mutual interdependence in energy markets reduces the likelihood of such disruptions. Countries with large funding needs and low reserve cover may be most vulnerable to a tightening of financial condi- tions % of international reserves % of GDP 300 60 Estimated external financing needs in 2014 250 Estimated external financing needs in 2014 (RHS) 50 200 40 150 30 100 20 50 10 0 0 Kyrgyz Republic Tanzania Kazakhstan Moldova Brazil India Romania Hungary Albania Niger Ghana Jordan Indonesia Turkey Belarus Malaysia Costa Rica Dominica Kenya Jamaica Mongolia Pakistan El Salvador Nicaragua Ukraine Madagascar Mozambique Source: World Bank, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and NOAA. Source: World Bank, BIS. External financing needs measured as current account balance less short term debt coming due in 2014 minus estimated June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 As the impacts of an unusually severe weather recede, activity in the US is on course for a cycli- High-income l cal upturn, led by private spending. Growth remains tepid in the Euro Area, underlining the fragile nature of the recovery there. However, consumer confidence has risen to a six -year high, while the ECB has announced substantial credit easing which should support the recovery there. Senti- ment indicators suggest that activity in Japan is stabilizing after a sharp slide following the sales tax increase in April. US economy is rebounding after a weak Q1 Industrial Production  Q1 was derailed more than initially thought by weather conditions, with GDP contracting by 1% (q/q saar), which will weigh on outturns for the year as a whole.  However, as the cyclical recovery has firmed, activity has rebounded. With household wealth boosted by stock markets that have repeatedly tested new highs, and by an ongoing recovery in house prices, consumer demand is slowly strengthening. Retail spending rose at a 4.4% (3m/3m saar) pace in April.  This in turn is boosting firm output and hiring. while man- ufacturing output (which comprises three quarters of total industrial output) rose at 6.8% pace in May, the fastest in two years. Both service and manufacturing PMI indica- tors continue to indicate a solid pace of growth, while regional Fed surveys showing a strong pick up in the second half of the year in business investment, which Source: Datastream, World Bank has so far lagged the recovery. Manufacturing PMIs A muted recovery in the Euro Area should be support- ed by the recent ECB stimulus  With inflation continuing to drift down and weakness in bank lending hampering the recovery underway, the ECB announced substantial policy easing, cutting its deposit rate to below zero, lowering its benchmark rate and announcing significant credit easing measures.  These measures have helped to bolster confidence, with 10 year bond yields in the periphery economies falling lower (tightening by some 15bp compared to prior to the ECB announcement).  Despite growth remaining tepid in Q1, activity and senti- ment indicators continue to improve. Consumer confi- dence has risen to a six year high, while PMI indicators point to continued expansion in both industrial and ser- Source: Markit Economics, World Bank vice sectors. With unemployment beginning to inch down, private consumption is beginning to rise in the troubled periphery economies of Portugal and Spain. Inflation Incoming data suggest Japan’s economy is recovering after the sales tax increase  Given the sharp acceleration in growth to 5.9% in Q1 annualized ahead of the sales tax hike in April, a similar payback can be expected in Q2. This was confirmed in a sharp slide in activity and sentiment data in April. How- ever incoming data suggest that the economy is stabiliz- ing. Consumer confidence recovered in May (albeit not to Q1 levels), while manufacturing PMIs have stabilized at just below 50. The government released a preliminary blueprint in mid-June on proposed reforms on corporate income taxes, female labor force participation and gov- ernment pension fund reforms. If these and other need- ed structural reforms are implemented, they could help to boost growth over the medium term. Source: Datastream, World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014  G3 equities have been mostly stable since mid -April with U.S. equities remaining mostly robust, High-income ll while Japanese shares have experienced heightened volatility. Longer -term bond yields in U.S. and German have fallen sharply since February, leading to a significant flattening of yield curve. Yields on high -yield euro-zone government bonds have declined to record lows in June, helped by an unprecedented monetary stimulus by the European Central Bank. G3 equities have been mostly steady since mid- April. G –3 stock markets  G3 equities have been mostly in the upward trend since mid-April with U.S. equities remaining mostly stable, while Japanese stocks have experienced heightened volatility.  After reaching a new record high in early June, sup- ported by strong financial stocks, U.S. equities have struggled to regain its momentum through the month amid jitters over the Iraq turmoil and the Fed’s mone- tary policy decision.  After underperforming its G3 counterparts during the first 4 months of 2014, Japanese stocks have posted strong May-to-mid June gain of 5.2%, after posting a sharp 11% loss preceding 4 months. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Long-term yields in U.S. and Europe have fallen sig- nificantly since February. Changes in U.S. and German bond yields  Yields on longer-term U.S. and German government Year-to-date basis points change in government bonds yields (inverted scale) securities have fallen sharply since February. The Yields Slopes rally was especially material in the U.S. Treasuries -60 with yields on 10-year and 30-year securities falling -50 more than 50 basis points.  The strong demand for U.S .debt was initially support- -40 U.S. Flatter yield curve Treasuries ed by a period of heightened global risk aversion ear- -30 Lower yields German lier months, then reflected mixed economic data and -20 bunds expectations of lower policy rate over the medium term. -10  In contrast, shorter-dated Treasury yields were more 0 stable (given the Fed’s dovish sentiment has already 10 kept rates lower) causing a significant flattening of 2- year 5-year 10-year 30-year 2s10s* 10s30s* yield curve. * The difference between yields on 2-and 10-year bonds and 10-and 30-year bonds Source: Bloomberg, World Bank The global bond-market rally has been particularly pronounced in the euro-area periphery this year. Yields on 10-year government bonds Yield (percent)  Euro-zone periphery government bonds have contin- 12 ued to perform well through early June, but they re- 11 treated in recent days amid signs that they are losing 10 momentum. 9  The average yields of Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and 8 Portugal Spain has fallen to a fresh record low of 2.77% in early June in the wake of the ECB’s unprecedented 7 stimulus measures, after climbing above 10% at the 6 Spain height of the region’s debt crisis in late 2011. 5  However, yields on euro-area periphery bonds moved 4 higher recently on concern that the bond rally is losing 3 Italy momentum. 2 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Global industrial production grew at a robust pace at the beginning of the second quarter, led by Industrial Activity high income countries, suggesting a firming of the global economic recovery. April figures show that IP growth accelerated in the U.S. and Euro area, offsetting a slowdown in Japan. IP growth was steady in developing countries, as factory output picked up in China. Excluding China, IP growth, however, slowed in developing countries in April, reflecting a slowdown in Middle East and North Africa and South Asia, and a contraction of industrial output in Sub -Saharan Africa. Global IP growth strengthened at the start of the second quarter, led by high-income countries. Global IP growth  Global IP grew at the seasonally adjusted annualized 4.2 percent (3m/3m, saar) pace in April, after slowing to 3.7 percent in March.  Contributing to this gain, high-income country IP growth accelerated to 4.2 percent in April, after slow- ing to 3.5 percent in March. Notably, IP growth strengthened to 5.1 percent in the U.S., following March’s 4.3 percent growth; and, after slowing to 3.2 percent in March, the Euro area’s IP growth accelerat- ed to 4.8 percent in April. In contrast IP growth slowed markedly to 2.8 percent in Japan down from 10.5 per- cent in March, as the VAT increase came into effect.  Developing countries’ IP growth stabilized at 4.1 per- cent in April (4.0 percent in March). The acceleration in China’s IP growth was however counterbalanced Source: World Bank by a slowdown in growth from the rest of developing countries (IP grew 2.7 percent , slowing from a 3.1 Regional IP growth: EAP, ECA, LAC percent growth in March). After a period of sustained slowdown, China’s IP growth picked up noticeably in April.  China’s IP growth was recorded at 5.1 percent in April, up from 4.7 percent in March, as manufacturing output picked up. Excluding China, IP contracted again in the rest of East Asia and Pacific but at a slower pace, reflecting a sharp fall in IP growth in Thailand and improvements in Indonesia.  Meanwhile IP growth in developing Europe and Cen- tral Asia remained strong in April, supported by a pick up in factory output in Hungary and Romania.  IP growth in Latin America and the Caribbean im- Source: World Bank proved, picking up to 1.6 percent in April from 0.6 percent in March, helped by an acceleration of IP Regional IP growth: MENA, SAS, SSA growth in Mexico and steady expansion in Brazil. IP growth slowed in Middle East and North Africa South Asia, and fell in Sub-Saharan Africa  IP growth in the MENA region slowed to 7.2 percent in April, following a 13.6 percent increase in March, as Egypt’s non-oil private sector shrank.  India’s IP grew at a slower 3.3 percent pace in April, following a 4.7 percent expansion in March. Excluding India, IP growth was also slower in the rest of the South Asia region.  Industrial production contracted further in South Africa in April as labor strikes led to a sharp contraction in mining production. Manufacturing output also fell, reflecting weak economic conditions. Source: World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Business sentiment within the global manufacturing sector rebounded modestly in May from the six -month Business Sentiment low in April. Advanced countries continue to show improved sentiment and operating conditions in the U.S. and the Eurozone, with conditions stabilizing in Japan. Sentiment among developing regions continue to be diverse with East Asia and Pacific rebounding sharply but still remaining in negative territory, and South Asia showing a small uptick in sentiment. In contrast, sentiment in Latin American and the Caribbean and Europe and Central Asia retreated in May, but with only the former signaling deteriorating operating conditions. Global manufacturing sector sentiment rebounded in May, signaling expansion for the 18th straight month Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)  Global manufacturing sentiment rebounded modestly in May with the global purchasing manager’s index (PMI) climbing to 52.2 from April’s six month low of 51.9, led by stronger output growth in the U.S., U.K. and the Czech Republic.  Amid the continued recovery from the winter weakness, the ISM PMI for the U.S. climbed from 54.9 in April to 55.4 in May. With manufacturing output declining in France and easing in a number of other countries, the Eurozone PMI posted its lowest reading in 6 months at 52.5, down from 53.4 in April.  Signaling a broad stabilization in business conditions, Japan’s PMI increased modestly to 49.9 from the decline to 49.4 in April due to the recent sales tax increase. Sim- ilarly, Russia’s PMI rose from 48.5 to 48.9 in May signal- Source: World Bank and Markit ing easing operating conditions amid the continuing cri- sis in Ukraine. PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 1 Due to strengthening external demand, several emerg- ing economies saw improved sentiment and signaled continued growth in the manufacturing sector.  Increasing for the 3rd consecutive month, Chinese man- ufacturing PMI posted a PMI of 50.8 up from 50.4 in April on stronger production and new orders. Similarly, aided by a depreciating rupee, India saw an uptick in the PMI from 51.3 to 51.4 in May on stronger new orders, export business and employment.  On the back of stronger external demand and the suc- cessful launch of new production lines, a record rise in new orders led to the Indonesian PMI rising from 51.1 in April to a record 52.4 in May. Reflecting improved de- mand from the U.S., stronger new export business con- Source: World Bank and Markit tributed to an uptick in Mexico’s PMI from 51.8 in April to 51.9 in May. PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 2 Sentiment was less optimistic in other emerging econ- omies due to a variety of domestic influences  Falling from 49.3 to 48.8 in May, which is a 10-month low, Brazil’s manufacturing PMI signaled continued dete- riorating business conditions due to weakened domestic demand amid tighter credit conditions. Similarly, Tur- key’s PMI dropped to 50.1 from 51.1 in April reflecting stagnant business conditions with domestic demand facing a post-election lull.  With mining strikes weighing on domestic demand, South Africa’s PMI increased from 49.4 to 49.7, but still signaling deteriorating operating conditions with falling output and new orders. Source: World Bank and Markit June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Global trade contracted at the start of Q2 on account of weaker developing country imports, but International Trade l also due to some softening of high -income demand. Among developing countries, domestic de- mand adjustments related to policy tightening and currency depreciation and on -going political tensions in some developing economies contributed to the slow down. Nonetheless, tail winds from an up-tick in high-income economic activity is expected to provide support to developing countries economies in H2 2014, thereby supporting a pick -up in imports there. For the first time in a year global trade contracted. Global Import Volumes  The post-crisis recovery in global trade has, in gen- eral been very subdued, however, until April 2014 it had managed to sustain ten months of continued expansion. However a cyclical uptick which peaked in February (8.8%, 3m/3m saar), global trade vol- umes contracted by 1.5 percent in April.  This expansion has been mostly driven by weak- ness in developing countries, where import demand slumped to 8.5% (6.8%, excluding China).  Reflecting the co-cyclicality of developments be- tween high-income and developing countries, high- income import growth also adjusted downwards, albeit continued expanding at a subdued 1.5% pace (from 4.9% in January 2014).  To the extent that a pick-up in high-income econom- Source: Datastream, World Bank ic activity is expected in H2 2014 (given that transi- tory factors played a role in weak Q1 performance) Regional Import Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC this bodes well for near-term global trade prospects, including from developing countries. Import demand slowed in most of developing re- gions led by the East Asia and Pacific region reflect- ing on-going domestic adjustment.  Quarterly import growth contracted in China reflecting waning effects of 2013 mini-stimulus. Imports in the rest of the EAP region also recorded contraction re- flecting depressed economic activity in Thailand com- bined with domestic adjustment in Indonesia and Ma- laysia.  Import demand eased in ECA region reflecting curren- cy devaluations in the Eastern part of the region and Ukraine combined with political unrest, depressed economic activity and import disruptions there. Source: Datastream, World Bank  Import demand ticked-down in LAC reflecting policy tightening in Brazil and weak economic activity in Ar- Regional Import Volumes: MENA, SAS, SSA gentina. Import demand showed a considerable re- bound in India following a long period of contraction. Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid- dle East.  Considerable lags in data lags for the Middle east and Sub Saharan Africa impede the assessment of most recent trends. In South Africa, where high frequency data is available, import demand continued to show quite double digit contraction through April reflecting weaker currency and economic activity.  In the Middle East and North Africa, the contraction in import demand which persisted through February (seven consecutive months of contracting imports), reflected the effects of political challenges on demand conditions in the region, but the pace of contraction Source: Datastream, World Bank eased. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Reflecting the weakness in global import demand, developing country exports also contracted, International Trade ll with the sharpest contraction occurring in China—the world’s largest exporter. Excluding China the contraction was much milder, with divergent performances across regions: contraction in East Asia (mainly China); and expansion in Europe and Central Asia and Latin American and the Caribbean. Weak global demand dampens developing country exports Global Export Volumes  Developing country exports contracted at an annual- ized pace of 12.8 percent in the three month to April, however, this was mostly on account of weak Chinese exports in April. Excluding China, the con- traction was less than one-percent  Indeed, this reflects weak import demand from high- income countries, where in general Q1 GDP data has been largely disappointing, except in Japan. Further given the significance of South-South trade, the recent weakness observed in developing coun- tries, including from China, has also contributed to the weakness in developing country exports. Export performance in developing regions shows some divergence. Source: Datastream, World Bank  Excluding China, exports from East Asia has been positive (2.7%) although well below trend. Besides Regional Export Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC weak global demand, domestic factors have also played a part, such as the political tensions in Thai- land.  Export expansion continues in Europe and Central Asia albeit with a slowdown. This in part reflects two driving forces one where a recovering Euro Area is providing support to and the other where weakness in Russia, and metal and mineral prices is dampening exports.  Exports from LAC show signs of a rebound led by Mexico and Argentina reflecting weaker currencies and stronger demand from the US following weak regional exports affected by drought in Brazil and weak demand from the US in the first quarter. And in South Asia, exports showed a rebound led by India. Source: Datastream, World Bank Despite recent weak export performance, exports Regional Export Volumes: MENA, SAS, SSA are projected to expand supporting by firming de- mand in high-income countries.  Despite a bumpy start of the year, export growth should continue to be supported by rising demand from high income economies and an economic re- bound in China (stimulus supported).  If the strengthening of high-income country activity is to persist, this should provide further support to a pick -up in developing country exports, especially in those countries where export growth continues to lag be- hind.  Indeed, where data is available for May, there has already been a rebound occurring in both East Asia (including China) and South Asia. Source: Datastream, World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Crude oil prices rose in May, supported by tensions in Ukraine and continuing supply outages, nota- Commodities l bly Libya. However, prices spiked in early June on security related concerns coming from Iraq. Prices of industrial metals declined in May partly due to concerns about growth in China. However the de- cline in precious metal prices was on account of better economic data, as this led to withdrawals by institutional investors. Crude oil prices have risen slightly in recent months on account of tensions in Ukraine and supply outag- Crude Oil Prices es.  Crude oil prices were up on geopolitical tensions stemming out of Ukraine and supply outages. Prices averaged $106/bbl, up 0.8% (m/m) in May and last traded at $109.5/bbl in mid-June on security concerns stemming from Iraq.  Global oil supplies rose by 0.5 mb/d to 92.6 mb/d in May. On a yearly basis, world output is up 1 mb/d, as non-OPEC growth more than compensated for de- clines in OPEC output.  The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed to US$ 6.4bbl in May on sharply lower stocks at Cushing, OK (delivery point for WTI) which are now at a staggering 25 mb below year-ago levels. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Metal prices were down in May partly due to con- Metals Prices cerns about slowing demand in China.  Metals prices fell 0.8% (m/m) in May, down four of the last five months. The declines were led by aluminum and iron ore on oversupply issues.  Prices of nickel increased by 12% (m/m) and up for the sixth consecutive month due to Indonesia’s Janu- ary 12th export ban on unprocessed ore. However, nickel prices fell from their highs into early June as stocks are still at record levels and severe market tightening is not expected until 2015.  Global stocks of metals at major exchanges have declined (down 4.5% m/m in May), and are still ele- vated by historical standards. Copper (-70% y/y), zinc, lead and tin stocks are down (-30% y/y), while alumi- num stocks are flat and nickel is up (+52% y/y). Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Precious metals prices declined in May on better Precious Metals Prices macro data in the advanced economies.  Precious metals have been on the decline since early 2012, and prices reversed their previous two month gains by falling 1% (m/m) on improving macroeco- nomic conditions in advanced economies.  Reduced demand for safe-heaven investments and expectations of changes in US monetary policy have triggered outflows out of exchange-traded funds, lead- ing to price declines.  In May, holdings of gold by exchange traded funds (ETFs) fell 1.6% (m/m), a four-year low. This followed two straight months of gains, the first increases since 2012. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Following a moderate decline in April, key commodity food prices declined further in early May Commodities ll following an upbeat outlook by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the 2014/15 season, introduced on May 9. The price weakening extended to oils & meals (down almost 2% since March) and raw materials -0.5%). Despite the improved outlook, the possibility of an El Nino event this year (currently evaluated at 65-70%) poses upside price risks, especially for wheat and rice. In its first global assessment for the 2014/15 crop year, USDA projected improved supply conditions Stock-to-use ratios for maize and rice—less so for wheat. 35%  Maize and rice are set for a record production at 979 and 481 million tons and stock-to-use (S/U) ratios of 30% 18.8 and 22.9% for 2014/15. The outlook for wheat remains relatively tight, however, with production ex- pected at 697 million tons, down 2% from the current 25% Wheat season—the S/U ratio is expected to rise marginally due to lower feed use. Declines in wheat output in the 20% Rice U.S. and Australia and Ukraine will be offset by in- creases in Argentina, Mexico, and Paraguay. Lower maize production in Ukraine is expected to be offset 15% by increases in Argentina and Mexico. Maize  The rice market continues to be well-supplied. In addi- 10% tion to improved production prospects, stocks are at 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 high levels, especially in Thailand and India. Source: US Department of Agriculture (May 9, 2014) Grain prices eased following USDA’s first outlook assessment for 2014/15. Maize and wheat prices  Although wheat prices did not change in April, they declined in early May following USDA’s assessment. Yet, price risks are on the upside in view of the El Nino threat and the fact that the market is not as well supplied as other grains.  Maize prices remained virtually unchanged in April (after gaining more than 12% since the beginning of the year) but they declined marginally in early May following the release of USDA’s 2014/25 assessment. Overall, the global maize market is well-supplied.  Rice prices declined 6.5% in April to $395/ton, the lowest since January 2008. The rice market is well supplied as the Thai government stocks are weighing heavily on the market. Yet, El Nino may pose some upside price risks. Source: World Bank Coffee (Arabica) prices reached almost $5/kg in mid-April, a 2-year high. Coffee prices  Arabica prices gained 4.5% in April, up 75% since the beginning of the year—robusta prices did not change much. Dry and hot weather conditions in Brazil— world’s largest coffee supplier—have taken a tol on Arabica output. The global coffee market is expected to incur a 0.5 million-bag deficit instead of an ex- pected 4 million bag surplus.  Separately, the oil and meal price index declined al- most 2% in April, led by a 5.2% decline in palm oil prices. Soybean prices gained 3.2%, however, on delays of spring plantings in the U.S. and Canada due persistently to cold weather and wet conditions as well as delays in soybean harvest in Argentina due to wet conditions. Source: World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Credit-default swap rates for developing countries have widened recently led by Argentina and Finance l Ukraine. Global equities have been on edge this week as the turmoil in Iraq, renewed tensions in Ukraine, and the prospect of Argentinian debt default dampened market sentiment. Carry trade investment this year has been boosted by persistent low yields in high -income country assets, a weakening euro, and subdued market volatility. Developing-country CDS rates have widened recent- ly on Argentina. 5-year sovereign CDS spreads for developing countries  CDS spreads for developing countries have increased more than 80 basis points (bps) on average since basis points 700 early June, due mostly to a surge in spreads for Ar- gentina and to a lesser extent Ukraine. Excluding 600 these two countries spreads are relatively  Argentina’s CDS spreads have surged more than 900 500 bps this week to highly distressed levels of 2,737 bps, their highest levels in more than four months, after a 400 U.S. court ruling raised the possibility of sovereign 300 default.  Renewed geopolitical tensions also pushed Ukraine’s 200 CDS spreads higher by more than 100 bps since ear- ly June. 100 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Rally in global equities has halted in recent weeks amid rising geo-political tensions and prospects of MSCI stock market indices debt default in Argentina.  After rallying through early June, world stock markets have been weak recently as Iraq, Ukraine tensions, the prospect of Argentinian debt default damped in- vestor sentiment.  The rally between late March and early June helped emerging-market stocks to recover all of the losses incurred during the January-February sell-off. On a year-to-date basis developing county equities are up 4.3% (versus year-to-date advance of 4% for devel- oped-market equities).  Since early June, however, emerging-market equities have lost 0.3%, compared with a 0.5% drop for devel- oped-market stocks. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank The pick-up in carry trade has contributed to asset G-10 carry trade index price appreciation this year. G-10 carry trade index  The so-called carry trade investments, in which inves- 125 tors seek to boost expected returns by borrowing money in low interest rate/depreciating currencies in order to buy assets in higher yielding/appreciating 120 ones, has increased since February.  The continued decline in high-income countries’ inter- 115 est rate have enhanced the appeal of carry trade with G-10 carry trade index jumping 5% since the begin- ning of February. 110  Demand for carry trade has been boosted by a low yields in high-income country assets, weakening euro following the European Central Bank’s unprecedented 105 stimulus measures and record low market volatility. Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Developing-country bond spreads have fallen sharply this year, reaching post -tapering lows in Finance ll early June, but they have risen recently amid concerns over Iraq situation and Argentinian debt. Developing-country bond and equity funds posted their second consecutive month of inflows in May, though the pace of inflows moderated compared to the prior month. After a strong rebound in March and April, gross capital flows eased in May. Developing-country bond spreads have fallen sharply Developing-country sovereign bond spreads this year, reaching post-tapering lows in June. since 2011  Developing-country sovereign bond spreads reached (JP Morgan EMBIG spreads, basis points ) post-tapering lows in early June, but they have edged 500 higher recently amid concerns over fighting in Iraq, renewed tensions in Ukraine, Argentinian deb situation. 450 2000-2007 Average  Notwithstanding the recent episodes of market volatili- 400 ty, developing-country bonds have greatly benefited from the sustained period of market calm, with bond 350 spreads falling sharply since February.  The EMBIG bond spreads has fallen more than 120 300 bps between early February and early June. Much of 250 the drop in spreads can be attributed to a tightening of EM sovereign bond spreads U.S. Treasury yields. Easing in financial market ten- 200 sions, a renewed appetite for yield and domestic ad- Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 justments in major EM countries that have helped to Source: World Bank and JPMorgan reduce vulnerabilities. Foreign portfolio inflows to developing countries Portfolio flows into emerging-market bond and equity $ billions funds remained positive in May 40  Net foreign inflows to developing-country bond and 30 2011 2012 2013 2014 equity funds remained steady in May after recording 20 their first combined positive inflows last month since 10 last October, though net flows moderated to $6.5 billion 0 compared to a spike of $8.8 billion in the prior month. -10  EM bond and equity funds have suffered outflows since May last year on worries over monetary tighten- -20 ing in the U.S. But that tide has begun to turn recently -30 EM Fixed Income Funds as EM assets are among the main beneficiaries of a -40 EM Equity Funds renewed rush for riskier assets by yielding -searching -50 global investors. Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May  Further, investors put about $3 billion into developing country funds during the week ending June 11. Source: World Bank and EPFR Gross capital flows to developing countries After a strong rebound in March and April, capital flows eased in May.  Following a strong rebound from the emerging market turmoil in late January and February, gross capital flows eased in May.  Capital flows between March and May averaged $55 billion, 14% above the 3-month average of $48 billion prior to the February faltering.  The May weakness likely reflects some payback from the very high flows in the preceding two months, as secondary-market price indicators suggest continued appetite for developing country bonds, partly reflecting very accommodative global financial conditions and search for yields. Source: World Bank and Dealogic June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Equity flows remained broadly steady in May, but year -to-date flows are down 40% from a year Finance lll ago due to subdued IPO activities. Bond issuance activity faltered in May after reaching a record high in April with China accounting for much of the decline. Despite the February plunge, bond issuance by developing-country borrowers is on record pace this year. Syndicated bank lending has been slow in 2014, a reflection of overall weakness in global loan activity. Severe restrictions in bank risk taking and the low cost of bond funding are among the factors behind this weakness. Equity flows remained steady. Equity placements (IPOs and follow-on issuance)  Equity flows (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) amounted to $7.3 billion in May, up slightly from April.  After faltering in February, equity flows bounced back between March and May, which was coincided with the rally in developing-country stock markets.  But year-to-date equity issuance stands at only $30 billion, 40% lower than the like period in 2013, as the IPO activities remain subdued mostly due to China’s nearly five-month moratorium on IPOs that begun in February.  Looking ahead, the announced reopening of China’s IPO markets with 7 new listings is likely to shore up issuance activity in June. Source: World Bank and Dealogic Bond issuance faltered from record highs. International bond issuance  Bond issuance from developing-country sovereign & corporate borrowers fell sharply to $21.5 billion after reaching a record high of $47 billion in April.  China accounted for much of the May decline, but the country’s year-to-date volume make up about 30% of total bond sales by developing countries this year (an unprecedented share from just one country)—China became the biggest source of developing countries’ international bonds in 2012, surpassing Brazil.  Despite faltering in February, bond issuance is on a record pace with year-to-date volume standing at 7% above that of last year.  Along with Kenya’s inaugural international bond issue, Ecuador’s return to bond market this week after the 2008 default underlines the huge appetite for the Source: World Bank and Dealogic riskiest developing-country debt. Syndicated bank lending remained subdued. Cross-border syndicated bank loan  Syndicated bank loans to developing countries re- mained weak at about $7 billion in May, due mostly to a drop in lending to ECA region.  Severe restrictions in bank risk taking and the low cost of bond financing are among the factors behind weak bank lending, which has shown no signs of re- covery in recent months.  Bank lending totaled about only $70 billion in the first five months of 2014, down 19% from a year ago, a reflection of overall weakness in global syndicated loan activity.  ECA and SSA regions accounted for much of decline in bank flows to developing countries this year. Source: World Bank and Dealogic June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 The euro came under pressure in anticipation of (and following) monetary easing measures an- Exchange Rates nounced by the ECB on June 5 to ward off deflation risks. Currencies of several large middle - income developing countries have stabilized or appreciated (with some exceptions), after coming under pressure in late January. Despite financial market tensions earlier this year, a majority (60%) of developing country currencies have appreciated year -to-date, nonetheless, they remain vulnerable to monetary policy decisions and financial conditions in high income countries. The euro depreciated in anticipation of (and follow- ing) monetary easing by the ECB on June 5 Euro and US dollar appreciate, Yen stabilizes  Anticipation of monetary easing by the ECB to ward of deflation risks (announced on June 5) weakened the euro. Compared to the level in early May, the euro fell by 2.4 percent against the US dollar (0.9 percent down since June 5).  Despite the recent depreciation, the euro is 6.2 percent higher in trade weighted effective terms compared to Jan. 2013. The US dollar has also gained with a firm- ing recovery in the US.  The Japanese yen has broadly stabilized, following an earlier steep depreciation, which had in part resulted from monetary stimulus. Currencies of large middle-income countries have Source: Datastream, IFS appreciated (with exceptions) as financial market tensions abated since February Recent appreciation of developing currencies vs US$  After experiencing sharp depreciations in late January and February (triggered initially by weak macroeconom- ic data from China, and as steep currency losses in Argentina, Ukraine and Turkey spread to other coun- tries), large middle-income developing currencies have appreciated, partially reversing earlier losses.  The recent appreciation took place as financial tensions eased and after some countries (Turkey, India) main- tained a tighter monetary stance. Policy reforms in Mex- ico and an improved current account position in India (partly due to curbs on gold imports) also helped to stabilize their currencies. Ukraine’s currency fell sharply as the political crisis intensified, but has stabilized. Majority of developing currencies were stable or Source: Datastream, IFS appreciated in NEER terms since start of the year  Changes in effective exchange rates broadly mirror Appreciation of developing currencies (NEER) those against the USD. Brazil’s real appreciated signifi- cantly in NEER terms (due the devaluation in Argentina, a large trading partner) but experienced a smaller ap- preciation against USD. Widening trade deficits in Indo- nesia (due to mineral ore exports ban and weak com- modity exports) and in South Africa (strikes in the plati- num sector) resulted in downward pressure on their currencies. Improving demand from Euro Area and raising of Romania’s sovereign rating to investment grade by S&P resulted in the currency rising to its high- est since early 2013.  Only 30% of developing currencies lost 1 percent or more in NEER terms since Jan 1 (including some com- modity exporters, Zambia, Kazakhstan, Mozambique), while 60% were stable or even appreciated. Source: Datastream, IFS June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Global inflation ticked up reflecting a rebound of economic activity in China and reviving econom- Inflation ic activity in high-income economies. Quarterly inflation has picked up in many high -income econ- omies with the notable exception of the Euro Area which continues to suffer from considerable underutilization. Growth support measures contributed to a rebound of inflation in China. Curren- cy devaluation and supply bottlenecks contribute to accelerated price pressures in the ECA re- gion, particularly in Ukraine. Global inflation accelerated to 3.6 percent in April reflecting a marginal pick-up in high-income coun- Developing and high income inflation try inflation and price pressures in developing econ- omies.  High-income country inflation accelerated to 1.8 per- cent in April (y/y). The uptick was broad-based, with the exception of the Euro Area due to considerable spare capacity there.  Inflation in developing countries showed a strong re- bound in May on account of heterogeneous factors, including policy stimulus (China); earlier currency devaluations; and supply-side bottlenecks. Quarterly inflation continues to slide down in the EAP region excluding China. Price pressures accel- erated to two year heights in the ECA region and Source: World Bank Prospects Group; IMF IFS. remain moderate in LAC (excluding Venezuela).  In the EAP region, excluding China, quarterly inflation Inflation in EAP, ECA and LAC continued to ease reflecting price moderation in Indo- nesia, but accelerated considerably in China reflecting ongoing stimulus measures.  Currency depreciations in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Turkey continue to generate price pressures pushing quarterly inflation to double digit levels (11.3 percent annualized rate) in April of 2014.  On account of continued policy tightening, particularly in Brazil, inflation in LAC (excl. Venezuela) stabilized following earlier acceleration. In Venezuela, inflation has started to ease but from high levels in Venezuela. Inflation continued to ease at an accelerated rate in MENA, ticked-up in South Asia and continued to ease in Sub-Saharan Africa (except in South Africa Source: World Bank Prospects Group; IMF IFS. where inflation recently accelerated).  Tighter policies, appreciation of Rial and easing sanc- Inflation in MENA, SAS and SSA tions all contributed to a fall-off of inflation in Iran. Inflation also eased in Egypt largely due to base ef- fects and weak demand.  Quarterly inflation in South Asia ticked-up after drop- ping below 5 percent annualized pace in February— the lowest level since December 2007 reflecting de- velopments in India.  In contrast to the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa where inflation is on a easing trend, inflation has picked-up in South Africa notwithstanding recent policy tighten- ing. Source: Source: World Bank Prospects Group; IMF IFS. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.1 Global industrial production growth (constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over previous month a/) Weights Average 2013 2014 2013 2014 2000 1999-09 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr World 100.0 2.2 5.2 3.0 2.6 6.2 2.6 5.3 3.6 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 1.0 High-income countries 77.2 0.4 3.5 0.9 0.5 7.4 0.9 4.5 3.5 0.4 1.0 0.1 -0.2 1.0 Industrial countries 72.7 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.5 8.0 -0.5 4.8 4.8 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1 United States 25.1 0.3 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.2 1.4 6.0 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.4 Japan 17.3 -1.0 -2.7 0.7 -1.0 15.0 -0.8 8.7 10.4 0.9 3.4 -2.4 1.4 -1.0 Euro Area 22.9 0.0 4.2 -2.9 -1.0 11.2 -2.5 1.6 3.2 0.7 2.2 -0.4 -2.1 4.1 United Kingdom 4.1 -1.0 1.8 -1.6 -0.7 8.2 0.4 3.3 6.0 2.6 2.1 -1.8 0.5 2.4 Other high income 4.5 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.5 8.0 -0.5 4.8 4.8 .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 0.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Singapore 0.4 5.6 7.6 0.4 1.6 25.9 8.6 9.0 -1.9 0.6 -2.9 1.3 2.2 -0.7 Taiwan (China) 1.1 3.8 4.8 -0.2 0.4 -5.2 6.9 9.3 1.2 2.0 -1.4 2.4 -3.7 2.3 Developing countries 22.8 6.5 8.0 6.3 5.5 4.6 5.0 6.3 3.9 0.3 0.5 0.3 -0.1 1.0 East Asia and Pacific 8.7 10.5 11.4 9.1 8.9 4.5 11.1 11.6 3.6 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.6 China 6.3 13.7 13.7 10.0 9.7 6.0 12.3 11.4 5.0 0.6 -0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 Indonesia 0.9 3.4 4.0 4.1 6.0 -4.4 1.2 10.3 7.5 1.3 0.3 0.7 -0.1 -0.2 Thailand 0.6 8.6 -8.7 2.5 -3.3 -20.6 -5.9 15.3 -13.7 2.2 -2.5 0.1 -6.7 2.9 Malaysia 0.5 6.1 5.7 5.3 4.2 14.3 8.9 8.3 -2.2 -0.4 -1.3 2.5 -2.4 2.2 Europe and Central Asia 3.2 .. 14.9 8.3 2.2 1.4 1.9 7.0 11.2 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 Russian Federation 1.0 5.9 8.3 5.3 0.5 3.8 7.2 9.7 -9.6 -3.9 -3.9 3.7 0.5 0.9 Turkey 0.5 .. 9.6 2.5 3.4 4.2 4.9 4.0 6.3 0.1 1.1 -0.3 -0.3 1.0 Poland 0.6 6.3 6.9 1.3 2.3 6.1 9.4 0.9 3.8 -2.9 5.2 -0.9 -0.5 3.0 Czech Republic 0.2 3.6 7.7 -0.6 0.7 4.9 23.6 -2.2 10.5 -0.7 3.6 0.6 0.4 3.1 Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 1.8 2.5 -0.1 1.1 11.9 -4.0 -5.3 1.2 -2.2 2.7 0.4 -2.5 2.0 Brazil 1.8 - 0.4 -2.6 2.9 15.9 -5.8 -9.3 2.4 -4.5 5.2 0.8 -4.7 2.8 Mexico 1.7 1.1 3.5 2.6 -0.6 -3.0 1.9 0.5 3.1 -0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.6 Argentina 0.8 2.9 6.7 -1.1 -0.2 6.6 -6.8 -8.0 -3.6 -0.5 2.7 -1.6 -1.1 1.7 Colombia 0.3 1.9 4.9 -0.3 -1.2 20.0 -0.7 -0.3 1.8 1.5 0.3 1.1 -2.0 3.0 Middle East and North Africa 1.9 2.3 -9.3 5.7 -7.8 2.0 -31.4 -13.5 7.3 2.0 3.3 -3.1 -0.3 0.9 Saudi Arabia 1.2 0.0 12.4 5.7 -1.5 12.6 19.7 -5.3 1.8 2.7 -0.5 -0.2 -1.7 0.0 Iran 0.4 -0.3 0.2 -20.2 -10.0 -1.9 2.1 -1.3 8.9 0.0 1.3 0.1 0.7 -0.6 Egypt 0.4 .. -6.7 4.9 -7.7 -23.8 -41.0 2.8 57.2 3.7 9.5 -4.1 1.0 2.6 Algeria .. 4.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.4 7.7 -8.8 8.2 -24.8 0.7 -2.0 -11.5 5.6 0.1 South Asia 1.6 7.3 5.4 1.3 1.5 -8.0 8.8 -2.9 4.2 0.5 1.3 -1.8 0.9 2.1 India 1.3 7.5 4.8 0.7 0.5 -10.5 9.9 -4.8 4.7 0.0 1.9 -1.9 1.1 2.1 Pakistan 0.2 5.8 2.7 1.8 6.2 -0.7 8.9 6.0 -13.3 6.3 -5.5 -2.4 -1.2 .. Bangladesh 0.1 7.5 17.0 9.3 9.7 16.1 -0.4 3.6 .. -0.2 .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka 0.0 .. 8.1 -0.3 1.0 -3.0 1.2 17.9 .. 2.3 -1.1 1.6 .. .. Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 0.9 3.4 3.5 0.9 9.2 -7.6 9.9 -3.7 0.7 0.6 -2.2 -1.2 2.8 South Africa 0.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.3 10.4 -9.1 10.1 -3.1 0.8 0.8 -2.1 -1.1 3.1 Nigeria 0.3 - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD 75.9 0.2 2.9 0.5 0.5 7.4 -0.2 4.5 4.8 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1 Developing excl. China 16.6 2.9 3.2 2.8 1.3 3.1 -2.4 0.3 2.4 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -1.2 1.8 Developing oil exporters 2.9 - 1.8 3.0 0.3 5.9 -6.1 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.5 Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 8.7 10.0 7.2 7.0 4.2 8.1 7.6 4.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. .. a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr Real GDP High -in come cou n tries 2.0 3.3 2.1 1.1 1.1 3.1 2.0 2.6 0.8 .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 1.8 3.1 1.7 0.0 0.0 3.1 1.9 2.5 0.7 .. .. .. .. United States 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.1 2.6 -1.0 .. .. .. .. Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 6.7 .. .. .. .. Euro Area 1.6 2.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.6 1.0 0.8 .. .. .. .. United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.4 2.7 3.3 .. .. .. .. Other high income 4.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) .. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 .. .. .. .. Singapore 5.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 .. .. .. .. Taiwan (China) 3.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 .. .. .. .. Real merch an dis e imports High -in come cou n tries 3.7 11.8 4.2 0.8 1.4 3.3 3.1 4.0 2.6 1.7 -1.8 -0.2 2.2 Industrial countries 3.4 10.6 4.0 0.2 0.8 4.7 2.9 3.9 3.7 2.6 -2.0 -0.6 2.7 United States 3.0 14.9 4.1 2.9 0.7 5.5 5.4 4.9 -5.0 0.3 -1.3 0.2 5.7 Japan 2.3 10.5 4.3 4.2 0.2 9.7 -6.6 8.5 28.0 5.0 -3.7 7.6 -9.1 Euro Area #DIV/0! 10.4 3.2 -3.4 -0.6 2.9 4.7 -5.2 3.9 1.7 0.0 0.5 .. United Kingdom 3.1 10.8 0.5 3.0 0.4 12.0 0.5 -7.9 -2.8 2.3 -2.3 3.0 1.2 Other high income 3.4 10.6 4.0 0.2 0.8 4.7 2.9 3.9 3.7 -3.2 -0.2 1.6 -0.2 Hong Kong (China) 3.0 17.4 3.9 0.7 2.6 -1.5 4.8 16.0 -16.2 -5.3 -0.7 4.5 1.2 Singapore 2.3 17.9 3.6 3.7 1.0 5.8 17.0 -7.0 13.9 0.1 4.1 1.0 0.2 Taiwan (China) #DIV/0! 29.2 -2.7 -2.0 4.9 -15.1 0.1 20.2 6.0 -8.0 2.7 3.3 -4.2 I mport Prices High -in come cou n tries 3.2 5.8 12.7 -1.8 -1.0 -6.5 3.5 1.8 -1.4 -0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 Industrial countries 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.7 4.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.6 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -1.1 -5.6 1.7 -2.1 2.1 -0.1 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 Japan 4.7 14.2 18.2 -0.5 -6.3 -17.4 10.8 7.2 -12.5 -0.8 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 Euro Area #DIV/0! 5.2 15.6 -2.8 0.6 -9.1 3.5 10.9 3.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.1 .. United Kingdom 1.6 4.4 13.1 -1.5 -0.9 -8.2 6.6 12.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 0.4 Other high income 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.7 4.1 1.6 -1.1 -0.5 0.2 -0.6 0.1 Hong Kong (China) 2.4 6.3 7.8 3.7 0.9 -0.6 2.6 4.8 1.9 0.4 0.8 -0.7 -1.8 Singapore 4.7 7.4 13.5 0.3 -2.9 -7.9 1.6 4.9 -9.6 -2.4 0.5 -1.4 1.1 Taiwan (China) #DIV/0! 12.2 15.3 -1.9 -4.9 -13.0 -1.3 4.3 -4.3 -0.7 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 Real effectiv e exch an ge rates a Euro Area 1.1 -5.8 1.7 -4.4 4.6 3.2 7.2 5.8 3.6 -0.4 0.1 0.8 -1.2 United States -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.0 -0.1 -0.4 -0.4 Japan -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.8 -20.2 -21.3 -22.1 -20.0 -10.5 -0.3 1.6 -0.2 -0.3 United Kingdom -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 -1.0 -1.8 -2.6 0.5 6.9 1.5 0.3 -0.1 1.0 Canada 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -1.6 -4.5 -5.9 -8.8 -2.5 -0.9 -0.5 0.8 Hong Kong (China) -3.0 -3.8 -4.2 3.8 2.9 3.9 2.9 2.5 1.7 -1.1 0.3 -0.3 3.1 Korea, Rep. -0.1 8.6 2.7 -0.3 5.5 4.6 5.6 6.5 3.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.1 2.1 Singapore -0.7 3.4 5.5 2.2 2.5 2.9 0.9 1.1 -1.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.4 0.3 Taiwan (China) -2.5 3.8 0.3 -1.6 1.3 0.5 2.1 1.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 0.1 Switzerland 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -1.9 -2.8 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.3 Global credit conditions (percent unless otherwise indicated a/) A v erage 2013 2014 2013 2014 1999-08 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr May P olic y Rates High - in c ome c ou n tries Industrial countries United States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Ten year bon d United States 4.70 3.24 3.20 2.77 1.78 0.70 0.72 0.76 0.64 0.63 2.90 2.85 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.57 Japan 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.85 2.76 2.87 3.20 3.21 3.06 0.67 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.60 Euro Area .. 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.05 2.02 1.93 2.74 2.79 2.78 3.31 3.21 3.09 2.89 2.61 .. United Kingdom 4.77 3.66 3.58 3.06 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.93 2.87 2.75 2.72 2.68 2.63 Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b , c Dev elopin g c ou n tries .. 296 323 329 305 269 297 331 324 325 321 324 338 315 293 285 Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 82 77 193 218 162 146 167 173 162 163 152 160 169 159 151 148 Indonesia .. 218 225 228 260 197 230 317 298 298 305 318 307 270 267 243 Phillippines .. 206 200 177 153 138 150 173 153 143 142 146 150 133 130 123 Malaysia 129 140 145 152 134 112 133 151 141 119 139 136 122 100 96 101 Eu rope an d C en tral A s ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation 262 229 259 255 206 177 203 225 217 255 217 219 241 304 302 312 Turkey 404 221 260 281 239 195 208 275 277 308 291 314 307 303 256 224 Poland 99 156 210 192 135 121 133 148 137 119 130 120 121 116 107 106 Czech Republic .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. L atin A meric a an d C aribbean 522 345 353 345 340 303 334 364 361 372 360 372 389 354 325 319 Brazil 551 202 195 183 209 162 197 237 240 251 245 255 258 239 224 214 Mexico 206 187 186 188 189 167 183 204 201 193 192 196 196 188 178 173 Argentina 2920 690 687 989 1067 1127 1200 1092 850 925 804 927 970 880 788 782 Colombia 370 189 168 148 158 129 149 178 177 182 177 182 188 177 162 155 Middle Eas t an d North A fric a .. 346 369 455 439 415 463 444 433 414 416 416 421 405 392 386 Saudi Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt .. 173 371 502 565 509 623 622 506 403 427 403 381 369 369 .. Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sou th A s ia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakistan .. 624 922 1067 734 903 753 666 612 530 578 546 466 507 461 .. Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka .. 369 358 414 406 352 383 441 449 398 442 404 348 351 339 .. Su b- Sah aran A fric a .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. 2 7 0 2 4 1 2 1 9 2 0 7 .. South Africa 172 167 195 206 235 190 213 272 265 258 262 .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. e Gros s in flow s Dev elopin g c ou n tries .. 447 403 458 558 1 3 7 .2 1 5 9 .4 1 2 3 .3 1 3 7 .9 1 4 0 .7 4 5 .5 5 4 .3 2 1 .2 6 5 .1 6 4 .0 3 5 .8 East Asia and Pacific .. 154 123 163 211 54.2 69.3 36.7 50.5 49.2 18.6 19.6 8.4 21.2 27.4 18.1 Europe and Central Asia .. 44 58 66 82 22.3 25.8 10.8 23.5 14.4 5.0 4.9 2.9 6.6 8.0 3.7 Latin America and Carribean .. 156 146 150 178 38.4 42.8 56.8 39.6 57.0 14.1 26.9 4.7 25.4 19.3 11.4 Middle East and North Africa .. 19 7 7 9 0.3 6.4 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 2.5 0.2 South Asia .. 56 44 42 39 14.1 10.8 3.1 11.3 16.5 4.4 2.9 4.6 9.0 4.2 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 25 30 39 7.8 4.2 15.4 11.2 2.7 2.7 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.6 1.3 a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures. b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003. c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan. d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries. e/In billions of US dollars. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.4 Commodity price indices (current US do llar index,index unless o therwise indicated; a/) Av erage 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 14 2 0 10 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan F eb M ar A pr M ay E ne rgy 100.0 128.7 127.6 127.4 123.1 130.2 127.7 128.3 126.6 130.9 127.4 128.4 128.9 Co al, A ustralia 100.0 122.7 97.4 85.4 87.0 78.1 82.9 77.9 82.5 77.1 74.1 73.6 74.5 Crude o il, average 100.0 131.6 132.9 131.7 125.7 135.9 132.2 131.1 129.2 132.6 131 .6 132.7 133.7 Natural gas , Euro pe 100.0 126.9 138.4 142.2 149.2 138.7 138.1 135.8 139.8 136.3 131 .3 129.5 123.1 N o n- e ne rgy 100.0 119.8 109.5 101.7 101.7 99.2 98.6 99.2 97.8 99.8 100.0 100.0 99.9 A gric ult ure 100.0 121.6 114.5 106.3 107.3 104.3 103.6 105.5 102.3 106.1 108.2 107.3 107.5 B e v e ra ge s 100.0 116.0 92.6 83.3 83.3 82.2 83.1 94.5 85.8 94.6 103.2 106.1 105.1 Co co a 100.0 95.1 76.3 77.8 73.6 78.8 88.4 94.2 90.0 95.5 97.1 97.4 96.7 Co ffee, arabica 100.0 138.3 95.2 71.2 74.0 69.0 64.1 88.5 67.7 88.6 109.3 114.0 109.3 Co ffee, ro busta 100.0 138.7 130.6 119.6 123.5 117.3 106.4 122.3 111.4 121.8 133.8 134.0 130.8 Food 100.0 122.5 124.5 115.6 117.4 113.2 111.2 111.9 108.7 113.1 114.0 112.5 113.2 F a t s a nd o ils 100.0 120.5 126.1 115.9 112.7 113.8 119.2 120.1 117.9 123.1 119.4 117.1 117.4 P alm o il 100.0 124.9 110.9 95.1 94.4 91.8 99.6 101 .2 96.0 100.8 106.7 101.1 99.2 So ybean meal 100.0 105.2 138.5 144.1 139.6 145.8 150.6 153.7 149.8 157.0 154.3 149.6 152.9 So ybeans 100.0 120.2 131.5 119.7 112.3 117.2 123.4 122.8 125.8 131 .4 111.2 114.7 115.9 G ra ins 100.0 138.2 141.3 128.2 138.3 121.6 109.5 110.1 105.5 110.3 114.5 113.1 112.9 M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 156.7 130.1 107.3 112.9 106.5 112.6 119.6 119.6 116.9 Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 115.2 103.5 110.8 97.6 90.5 90.7 92.0 93.9 86.3 80.8 79.4 Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 141 .5 140.1 139.7 140.3 136.8 137.8 132.9 123.2 130.7 144.7 145.3 149.7 O t he r f o o d 100.0 111.1 107.1 103.9 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.8 99.5 102.5 106.6 106.0 108.0 B ananas, US 100.0 111.5 113.3 106.4 104.5 107.5 106.6 109.2 106.6 109.9 111.1 107.1 105.4 Sugar, wo rld 100.0 122.1 101.2 83.1 82.2 80.3 82.8 78.5 73.4 78.0 84.1 82.7 85.8 R a w m a t e ria ls 100.0 122.0 101 .3 95.4 94.9 94.1 95.4 95.6 95.1 95.1 96.5 95.3 94.8 Co tto n ("A " Index) 100.0 145.8 86.1 87.3 89.5 88.7 84.2 90.7 87.8 90.8 93.6 91.0 89.5 Rubber, Singapo re 100.0 132.0 92.4 76.5 79.5 70.9 69.2 61.6 63.7 58.7 62.4 60.1 56.7 Sawnwo o d, M alaysia 100.0 110.7 103.3 100.5 98.7 99.7 104.1 106.3 105.8 106.4 106.8 107.6 108.2 F e rt ilize rs 100.0 142.6 137.6 113.7 119.8 108.2 97.9 102.5 102.4 104.2 100.8 95.0 96.3 Triple superpho sphate 100.0 140.9 121.0 100.0 111.6 95.8 78.9 95.8 84.3 101.5 101.6 97.2 95.6 M e t a ls a nd m ine ra ls 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 88.2 87.8 88.5 85.7 88.1 86.2 83.0 85.5 84.8 A luminum 100.0 110.5 93.1 85.0 84.5 82.0 81.3 78.7 79.5 78.0 78.5 83.3 80.6 Co pper 100.0 117.2 105.7 97.3 95.0 94.0 95.1 93.3 96.8 94.9 88.3 88.6 91.5 Go ld 100.0 128.1 136.3 115.3 115.5 108.5 103.8 105.6 101.6 106.1 109.1 106.0 105.2 Nickel 100.0 105.1 80.5 68.9 68.6 64.0 63.8 67.2 64.7 65.1 71.9 79.7 89.0 M emo : C rude O il ( US $ ) 79.0 104.0 105.0 104.1 99.3 107.4 104.5 103.7 102.1 104.8 104.0 104.9 105.7 a/ The Wo rld B ank primary co mmo dity price indices are co mputed fro m 1987-89 expo rt values in US do llars fo r lo w- and middle-inco me eco no mies, rebased to 1990. b/ Energy and go ld prices are no t included in the index. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A. 5 Developing countries ' merchandis e export grow th (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) A v erag e 2013 2014 2014 1999-09 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan F eb M ar A pr Ex po rt v alu es D ev elo pin g c o u n tries 12.9 21.2 4.2 2.6 -13.9 3.2 13.5 -9.6 6.0 -13.0 4.1 4.5 Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific 14.2 19.7 6.2 6.2 -19.6 -0.9 25.7 -11.8 9.3 -20.7 8.5 5.7 China 19.5 20.2 8.1 8.3 -24.0 1.8 26.6 -15.6 12.9 -27.1 11.2 7.4 Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.2 -4.0 -13.5 -21.5 52.9 -13.5 -5.1 1.1 -2.3 -2.6 Thailand 10.4 15.0 3.1 -0.2 -12.1 -6.5 21.9 -4.5 -1.0 -1.7 -4.1 1.8 Eu ro pe an d C en tral A s ia 14.9 20.4 1.9 0.9 -7.5 14.1 4.1 6.7 0.4 0.8 0.1 -1.4 Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.8 25.9 -4.5 -15.6 0.9 -16.8 21.0 1.2 Turkey 14.0 18.4 12.8 0.0 -2.3 8.8 -3.6 36.6 4.3 4.0 3.5 -7.3 Poland 16.6 22.4 -3.1 10.2 -7.3 19.9 9.7 19.2 4.2 -4.7 5.4 2.0 L atin A m eric a an d C arib b ean 8.3 23.2 1.5 0.7 6.2 2.1 2.5 -12.5 -0.7 0.8 -3.5 3.4 Brazil 11.5 27.0 -4.7 -0.5 6.3 -8.1 22.9 -23.3 0.7 -4.5 -5.4 7.3 Mexico 7.0 17.5 5.9 2.3 4.9 10.7 -2.4 -1.3 -3.1 5.2 -0.9 2.1 Argentina 8.0 23.3 -4.5 1.8 30.0 -16.0 -18.6 -23.4 9.6 3.3 -9.2 6.3 M iddle Eas t an d No rth A fric a 16.2 16.2 5.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 21.4 15.1 -3.4 -3.3 -24.8 -8.5 -3.7 .. 4.3 -6.3 .. .. So u th A s ia 14.9 31.6 -1.7 6.2 -20.0 51.5 0.0 -18.7 0.7 -3.9 -1.1 5.6 India 16.5 33.4 -1.9 6.0 -23.2 52.0 0.0 -22.1 1.5 -4.8 -1.2 7.3 Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.6 8.2 54.6 -24.8 8.9 -9.5 8.0 -5.6 -15.3 Bangladesh - 26.7 3.6 12.2 -15.8 56.9 8.7 .. -0.4 -3.1 .. .. Su b - Sah aran A fric a 11.9 24.7 2.9 -11.9 -6.9 -18.5 -24.6 .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -5.3 -11.6 6.5 -4.8 7.8 -5.1 -8.7 5.9 Nigeria 13.6 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. Ex po rt pric es b,c D ev elo pin g c o u n tries 4.7 12.0 0.1 -0.6 -1.9 -0.5 2.5 -7.3 -1.5 -2.5 -1.8 1.5 Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific 3.4 14.4 2.0 0.6 2.2 -2.0 5.5 -7.7 -2.8 -1.7 -2.9 0.6 China 3.5 15.2 4.5 1.9 6.2 -2.0 8.7 -10.9 -4.8 -0.7 -4.8 0.7 Indonesia 5.1 17.0 -6.8 -4.4 -9.7 -8.0 1.5 -4.2 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 Thailand 2.0 10.9 -3.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.1 -1.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 Eu ro pe an d C en tral A s ia 5.5 9.9 -2.8 -1.5 -2.9 0.8 -0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 -1.3 -1.8 -15.7 17.9 -5.8 -3.0 -2.0 1.5 -0.6 0.4 Turkey 2.3 10.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Poland 1.9 10.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 0.3 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 -0.1 L atin A m eric a an d C arib b ean 4.7 5.2 -4.5 -4.8 -11.7 -3.8 1.6 -13.7 -1.4 -2.7 -2.8 5.1 Brazil 9.0 -3.5 -5.8 -3.1 -28.6 -12.7 35.2 -2.3 -1.2 0.3 -3.7 0.1 Mexico 3.8 3.5 -4.0 -2.1 9.0 6.3 -4.6 -12.9 0.3 -5.0 -1.9 -0.4 Argentina -2.1 12.4 -6.8 -18.1 -17.8 -30.2 -35.4 -55.5 -6.4 -7.7 -9.3 62.9 M iddle Eas t an d No rth A fric a 13.7 16.4 18.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -17.0 29.2 -8.8 -2.6 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 0.6 Iran 13.5 28.3 0.3 -0.8 -18.2 29.5 -8.7 -3.6 -2.8 2.1 -0.9 0.7 Egypt 5.3 17.0 0.1 -0.9 -2.2 2.5 -6.1 -0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.6 0.0 So u th A s ia 2.3 11.1 -3.4 -1.9 -6.2 -1.3 -1.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 India 2.5 11.6 -3.8 -1.9 -7.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 Pakistan 2.1 9.8 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -5.1 -3.5 2.5 0.5 0.3 -0.6 -0.6 Bangladesh 1.6 9.0 -1.3 -1.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Su b - Sah aran A fric a 5.5 14.7 -4.1 1.5 13.9 20.6 -22.5 .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 4.5 22.3 -7.7 -6.5 -24.2 -6.7 -1.3 -4.9 -0.3 0.0 -0.8 -0.6 Nigeria 3.5 4.3 0.6 -1.0 63.5 26.3 -16.6 -45.2 -10.0 32.1 -19.8 54.5 /a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis. /b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.6 Developing countries' merchandise import growth (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 1999-09 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr I mport v alu es Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 2 .8 2 4 .5 4 .9 3 .5 - 8 .4 1 .1 3 .7 - 2 .1 3 .5 - 4 .0 - 5 .7 3 .9 Eas t As ia an d P acific 1 5 .7 2 4 .2 5 .6 5 .4 - 1 4 .0 7 .8 7 .9 - 2 .7 5 .9 - 5 .8 - 1 0 .4 7 .0 China 20.4 24.9 4.9 7.5 -14.6 15.4 8.7 0.3 6.6 -5.7 -13.2 8.1 Indonesia 15.2 30.8 8.3 -2.7 -10.4 -18.0 9.2 -0.6 2.4 -4.1 -1.5 4.2 Thailand 12.0 23.8 9.8 -0.8 -21.5 -19.6 5.0 -27.0 3.9 -8.8 -0.2 2.2 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 2 .5 2 8 .0 0 .2 4 .6 3 .4 - 1 .2 9 .4 - 1 2 .4 - 1 .5 - 3 .2 - 2 .0 1 .6 Russian Federation 14.2 30.7 5.6 2.4 -18.8 0.2 -0.6 -8.6 -0.6 -5.7 -0.8 1.4 Turkey 13.4 30.0 -1.7 6.2 7.8 -15.9 22.0 -18.1 -0.9 -5.9 -3.0 1.1 Poland 12.6 18.8 -5.9 3.0 -15.4 16.8 8.2 24.5 12.6 -1.2 -3.5 4.9 L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .5 2 2 .7 3 .9 3 .2 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 2 .8 3 .9 3 .4 - 0 .1 - 4 .6 3 .0 Brazil 9.6 24.7 -1.1 7.3 -2.0 0.6 -2.6 1.8 6.4 -2.2 -11.6 2.8 Mexico 6.7 16.5 5.7 2.8 9.6 -4.0 -3.6 9.7 2.4 -2.0 1.8 3.2 Argentina 8.6 30.5 -7.0 7.4 30.2 -20.3 -19.4 13.7 6.9 9.1 -8.9 2.8 Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .7 1 6 .8 1 0 .3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 11.8 22.5 19.8 8.4 -12.8 -11.8 -6.1 -4.6 -6.7 4.0 -0.3 1.8 Iran 13.0 44.4 -2.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 12.8 11.3 17.9 -16.0 -8.3 -30.4 42.8 .. -8.8 6.4 .. .. Sou th As ia 1 7 .7 3 1 .4 4 .9 - 3 .7 - 1 5 .5 - 1 9 .3 - 9 .5 3 .0 - 1 .4 1 0 .5 - 6 .5 - 1 .5 India 19.2 32.4 5.5 -4.8 -19.2 -22.8 -10.7 -2.0 -0.9 12.2 -7.6 -0.2 Pakistan 14.8 16.4 0.5 1.1 15.1 -9.2 -20.8 47.4 -3.1 -3.4 4.4 -13.5 Bangladesh 29.7 -5.7 5.5 7.7 19.5 22.1 16.0 -3.4 8.8 .. .. Su b- Sah aran Africa 1 4 .4 2 2 .9 6 .1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 14.6 23.6 1.4 -0.5 7.6 0.5 -7.6 -12.0 -10.6 3.9 7.6 .. Nigeria 26.2 22.1 -1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. I mport prices b , c Dev elopin g cou n tries 2.2 13.5 -1.5 -2.1 -6.3 -4.4 -0.7 -11.7 -2.1 -1.4 0.2 4.0 Eas t As ia an d P acific 3 .5 1 6 .7 1 .1 - 0 .2 - 1 .2 1 .0 1 .5 - 1 2 .7 - 1 .6 - 2 .6 - 0 .1 2 .6 China 4.6 19.2 1.6 0.6 0.4 3.2 0.9 -16.4 -2.1 -3.7 0.0 3.5 Indonesia 2.3 11.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -0.2 -0.8 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 Thailand 3.4 10.2 1.6 -2.1 -5.8 -2.8 3.1 0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.5 -0.4 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 .2 7 .5 - 6 .1 - 4 .6 - 1 5 .4 - 9 .1 - 3 .3 - 1 7 .7 - 4 .3 0 .2 0 .2 9 .8 Russian Federation 1.9 9.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -0.9 0.2 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.2 -0.1 Turkey -7.7 3.4 -9.5 -6.8 -22.5 -23.1 -9.7 -29.9 -7.4 0.9 -0.2 20.9 Poland 4.6 11.4 -3.9 1.7 -7.8 0.8 9.0 0.1 -1.0 0.2 -2.4 -0.2 L atin America an d Caribbean 0 .1 1 1 .7 - 5 .8 - 3 .7 - 5 .9 - 1 8 .0 - 3 .0 - 1 5 .1 - 4 .0 - 0 .3 1 .9 6 .6 Brazil 1.8 20.3 -13.3 -10.6 -16.0 -35.4 2.4 -16.8 -3.2 0.3 3.6 3.6 Mexico -0.6 9.3 -4.7 2.8 2.7 -11.8 -2.2 -3.2 -1.3 -0.1 0.4 1.1 Argentina -5.7 1.5 -10.5 -13.4 -11.9 -26.4 -27.6 -58.1 -19.6 0.0 0.0 45.3 Middle Eas t an d North Africa 3 .6 8 .2 2 .4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 2.2 10.5 -1.8 -1.7 -2.4 -1.5 -0.6 1.7 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 Iran 2.6 11.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.2 -2.6 -1.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 Egypt 2.7 14.0 -1.6 -2.0 -3.9 -4.3 -1.2 0.9 -0.1 0.6 0.6 -0.1 Sou th As ia 4 .7 1 7 .9 - 1 .0 - 3 .5 - 1 3 .7 3 .7 - 4 .2 0 .0 - 0 .6 1 .0 0 .1 - 0 .3 India 5.6 19.2 -0.4 -3.8 -15.3 5.2 -5.0 -0.1 -0.7 1.2 -0.1 -0.2 Pakistan 2.2 11.6 -4.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.6 0.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 Bangladesh 13.0 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 -2.1 -1.4 2.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 -0.2 Su b- Sah aran Africa 3 .5 9 .6 - 2 .6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 4.9 9.3 -5.7 -6.6 -12.4 -6.5 1.6 8.0 1.0 0.9 1.0 -2.5 Nigeria 2.4 5.0 -1.4 -1.6 29.8 -8.8 -1.4 -14.6 -9.4 0.1 -1.9 5.5 /a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis. /b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight reported. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances (Billion US dollars; annual rates) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr World -44.3 -86.8 -115.5 -45.7 -87.6 -122.8 112.0 -101.2 27.3 -524.2 193.4 140.2 High -in come cou n tries a -1 9 1 .7 -1 2 6 .4 -1 1 3 .6 1 1 .4 3 6 .2 -2 3 .1 8 3 .0 -1 2 .9 -7 9 .7 -7 8 .5 1 1 9 .6 2 1 .7 Industrial countries -541.6 -691.0 -682.9 -510.8 -482.3 -569.1 -464.9 -533.5 -633.3 -522.8 -444.3 -553.7 United States -635.2 -726.7 -733.2 -690.3 -676.1 -707.2 -685.7 -697.2 -706.4 -719.1 -666.1 -789.0 Japan 75.5 -32.0 -88.3 -116.7 -107.1 -108.7 -136.2 -185.9 -209.0 -137.7 -210.9 -119.5 Euro Area -19.5 -25.0 111.1 211.1 213.9 189.4 238.5 241.6 221.0 247.2 256.6 261.6 United Kingdom -152.3 -160.5 -172.3 -168.7 -156.2 -184.0 -173.3 -175.3 -186.9 -173.9 -165.1 -193.4 Other high income -541.6 -691.0 -682.9 -510.8 -482.3 -569.1 -464.9 -533.5 -79.7 -78.5 119.6 21.7 Hong Kong (China) -43.1 -54.1 -61.3 -64.6 -66.9 -64.3 -67.6 -69.1 -47.1 -95.1 -65.3 -80.4 Singapore 40.70 43.84 28.86 36.94 45.46 31.49 41.35 35.21 38.81 38.24 28.58 37.30 Taiwan (China) 10.9 11.4 15.2 18.4 26.0 25.2 17.4 13.9 11.4 20.7 9.4 25.1 Dev elopin g cou n tries 1 4 7 .6 3 9 .8 -0 .1 -5 3 .9 -1 2 2 .3 -9 4 .4 3 6 .1 -7 7 .7 1 1 4 .3 -4 4 6 .5 9 9 .1 1 3 7 .8 Eas t As ia an d Pacific 3 2 2 .3 2 9 8 .6 3 3 1 .8 3 7 3 .5 3 5 4 .3 2 9 7 .8 4 2 1 .6 3 4 2 .9 5 3 4 .4 -1 2 .5 5 0 6 .7 5 0 3 .1 China 179.8 150.5 217.5 249.1 237.9 178.3 267.0 171.1 391.4 -181.2 303.2 313.0 Indonesia 22.1 25.7 -1.6 -4.1 -7.5 -9.0 6.1 -0.4 -6.4 3.4 1.9 -10.4 Thailand 8.2 -7.0 -22.6 -21.1 -25.9 -16.2 -7.9 7.7 -0.5 16.4 7.2 6.4 Malaysia 34.6 40.9 29.2 14.9 19.6 13.6 8.1 18.1 15.2 -3.6 42.7 38.9 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia -2 7 .7 -7 3 .1 -6 3 .2 -8 8 .7 -1 0 1 .7 -7 9 .7 -8 9 .2 -5 5 .9 -7 8 .9 -5 1 .5 -3 7 .2 -5 6 .9 Russian Federation 149.2 196.5 192.2 179.3 167.0 196.9 191.3 176.9 192.1 121.2 217.5 219.5 Turkey -71.5 -106.3 -84.9 -99.5 -104.5 -90.4 -104.3 -79.4 -98.2 -76.6 -63.5 -78.7 Poland -22.2 -20.9 -14.3 -1.4 -1.1 0.2 0.9 -1.4 -2.7 -10.4 8.9 2.8 Czech Republic 6.3 10.2 15.7 18.1 18.0 17.4 19.5 23.0 20.7 20.5 27.9 25.3 L atin America an d Caribbean -5 0 .6 -5 7 .9 -8 0 .9 -1 0 6 .5 -1 1 3 .0 -1 0 1 .7 -8 8 .9 -1 2 8 .5 -1 3 9 .2 -1 3 0 .9 -1 1 5 .4 -1 1 6 .0 Brazil 19.6 29.1 19.7 2.3 2.7 -2.8 11.4 -5.7 -7.5 -12.9 3.2 13.3 Mexico -3.3 -1.0 -0.6 -2.4 -10.6 3.1 4.2 -5.9 -20.6 6.6 -3.7 -8.0 Argentina 11.7 10.3 11.7 8.0 7.9 8.5 8.2 0.9 3.6 -0.3 -0.5 1.9 Colombia -0.7 2.7 1.0 -0.6 0.4 0.2 -0.6 -7.4 -3.0 -10.2 -9.1 .. Middle Eas t an d North Africa 7 .6 6 .7 -9 .7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 126.8 201.3 211.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 32.6 32.7 9.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt -26.3 -28.3 -39.9 -29.8 -30.9 -26.4 -31.7 .. -25.0 -30.2 .. .. Algeria 11.3 20.1 13.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sou th As ia -1 5 5 .4 -2 0 3 .6 -2 3 7 .8 -1 9 4 .0 -2 3 0 .9 -1 6 1 .5 -1 4 7 .8 -1 7 1 .5 -1 4 6 .6 -1 5 4 .5 -2 1 3 .5 -1 5 5 .5 India -124.0 -162.2 -193.5 -152.3 -185.1 -122.7 -110.1 -127.7 -102.0 -113.4 -167.7 -110.5 Pakistan -16.6 -18.8 -19.7 -19.5 -21.9 -18.0 -17.3 -21.1 -23.5 -20.0 -19.9 -25.8 Bangladesh -8.6 -11.8 -8.8 -7.6 -8.5 -7.0 -8.2 .. -9.0 -8.6 .. .. Sri Lanka -5.1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Su b-Sah aran Africa 5 2 .5 7 0 .5 6 1 .7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 8.2 6.2 -3.9 -7.4 -7.5 -10.6 -7.1 -5.0 -5.1 1.0 -11.0 -13.2 Nigeria 47.8 77.1 97.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD -593.3 -777.7 -757.8 -602.1 -586.7 -642.1 -554.8 -603.3 -745.5 -573.8 -490.7 -623.2 Developing excl. China -32.3 -110.8 -219.3 -288.0 -349.7 -248.6 -210.5 -220.8 -272.5 -186.5 -203.4 -162.7 Developing oil exporters 352.7 417.7 394.2 310.6 305.6 313.4 314.2 309.1 274.2 300.5 352.5 339.5 Developing non-oil exporters -205.5 -378.4 -397.8 -361.1 -419.3 -400.0 -278.9 -376.7 -183.7 -707.3 -239.0 -198.9 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. a/ Seasonally adjusted June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU) (annual pe rc e nt c hange e xc e pt m o nthly data whic h is c hange o v e r pre v io us m o nth a/) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May World .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 9.3 5.7 -1.3 -3.1 -0.9 -3.4 -4.2 -3.8 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 0.0 1.8 1.4 United States (SDR/USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -14.1 -18.8 -20.5 -19.1 -10.1 -0.3 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.8 6.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 Singapore 6.7 8.4 0.6 -0.1 2.1 1.2 -1.7 -2.2 -2.5 -1.1 0.5 -0.1 1.0 0.2 Taiwan (China) 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -1.4 -2.7 -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3 Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Eas t As ia an d P acific 7 .9 0 .0 - 4 .7 - 7 .2 - 4 .3 - 3 .5 - 8 .0 - 1 2 .4 - 1 3 .2 - 0 .5 1 .4 3 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .7 China 0.9 4.7 2.5 2.6 1.4 2.9 3.7 2.5 2.0 0.4 -0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2 Indonesia 14.5 3.6 -6.5 -10.2 -6.4 -5.0 -10.9 -17.0 -18.0 -0.7 2.0 4.4 -0.1 -0.9 Thailand 8.2 4.0 -1.9 1.1 4.0 4.6 -0.4 -3.4 -8.7 -1.7 1.0 0.7 0.2 -0.7 Malaysia 9.4 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.7 1.4 -3.7 -4.7 -6.5 -1.6 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia - 5 .8 - 3 2 .2 - 3 2 .2 - 5 .9 - 4 .6 - 5 .6 - 5 .9 - 7 .4 - 1 0 .2 - 1 .3 - 1 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 Russian Federation 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 -4.6 -13.2 -2.7 -4.3 -2.2 1.3 2.4 Turkey 3.1 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 0.6 -1.9 -8.5 -11.4 -19.3 -6.9 0.5 -0.2 4.1 1.7 Poland 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 -0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5 Czech Republic -0.2 8.0 -9.6 0.0 -1.3 -0.4 2.7 -1.1 -3.3 -0.5 0.5 1.3 -0.3 -0.6 L atin America an d Caribbean .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Brazil 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -11.5 -5.3 -11.4 -9.6 -15.5 -1.5 0.0 2.4 4.2 0.5 Mexico 6.9 1.6 -5.4 3.0 2.7 8.4 1.9 -0.6 -4.5 -1.6 -0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 Argentina -4.7 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 -13.5 -15.1 -17.5 -20.9 -34.2 -10.5 -9.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.4 Colombia 13.6 2.7 2.9 -3.9 0.3 -4.1 -5.8 -5.7 -10.7 -1.6 -3.7 1.2 4.1 1.1 Middle Eas t an d North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -3.2 0.2 -45.7 -50.1 -50.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.8 Egypt -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -11.7 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -11.2 -3.9 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 Algeria -1.8 1.1 -6.2 -2.3 -4.5 -4.0 0.1 -1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 Sou th As ia 3 .8 - 2 .0 - 1 1 .7 - 7 .5 - 6 .4 - 2 .9 - 9 .3 - 1 0 .7 - 1 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 2 .2 1 .1 1 .1 India 5.9 -2.0 -12.6 -8.8 -7.2 -3.3 -11.2 -12.6 -12.3 -0.4 -0.2 2.0 1.0 1.7 Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 -7.5 -6.4 -8.2 -10.0 -5.4 1.4 0.4 5.2 2.3 -1.1 Bangladesh -0.8 -6.0 -9.5 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.4 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Sri Lanka 1.7 2.3 -13.4 -1.2 -6.1 2.6 0.2 -1.4 -3.0 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 Su b- Sah aran Africa - 6 .6 - 5 .2 - 3 .2 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .2 0 .2 - 0 .3 South Africa 15.0 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 -13.4 -14.4 -17.4 -14.5 -17.6 -4.7 -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.3 Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 -0.7 -2.3 -0.4 1.6 0.2 Memo: OECD 9.1 5.6 -1.5 -2.9 -0.6 -3.0 -4.2 -3.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.7 1.3 Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.9 Global Inflation (annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/) Av erage 2013 2014 2013 2014 2000-10 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec Jan Mar Apr May World 3.0 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.6 High - in come cou n tries 2.1 2.8 2.1 1.6 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.7 Industrial countries 1.9 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 United States 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.0 .. Japan -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 3.4 .. Euro Area 2.0 2.6 2.3 1.3 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 United Kindgom 2.8 5.2 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.6 2.3 .. Other high income 2.6 1.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 Hong Kong (China) 0.1 5.3 4.0 4.3 3.6 4.1 5.3 4.4 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.0 3.6 .. Singapore 1.6 5.2 4.6 2.3 3.8 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.1 2.4 1.4 1.3 1.4 2.0 .. Taiwan (China) 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 1.6 1.7 1.6 Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 7.5 6.4 .. 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 4.0 3.7 3.6 4.2 Eas t As ia an d P acific 2 .6 5 .6 2 .8 .. 3 .4 2 .6 3 .2 3 .4 4 .1 3 .5 3 .7 4 .2 3 .8 2 .9 4 .6 China 2.0 5.5 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.3 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.6 Indonesia 8.1 5.3 4.0 6.4 4.5 5.0 8.0 8.1 7.8 8.1 8.2 8.3 7.3 7.2 7.3 Thailand 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 3.1 2.4 1.7 1.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.6 Malaysia 2.2 3.2 1.7 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.2 2.9 3.4 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.4 .. Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 8 .2 8 .7 6 .2 3 .6 4 .5 3 .2 2 .0 2 .7 1 .8 2 .4 2 .5 3 .1 1 .7 1 .9 Russian Federation 13.3 8.4 5.1 6.8 7.2 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.1 7.0 7.4 7.7 Turkey 6.5 8.9 7.5 7.2 7.0 8.2 7.5 8.0 7.4 7.4 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.7 Poland 3.5 4.2 3.7 1.2 1.6 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.5 Czech Republic 2.7 1.9 3.3 1.4 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 L atin America an d Caribbean 7 .1 7 .6 7 .0 .. 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .5 3 .7 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .7 Brazil 7.0 6.6 5.4 6.4 6.9 7.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 Mexico 5.1 3.4 4.1 3.8 3.7 4.4 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.6 4.0 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 Argentina 8.8 9.8 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.6 .. 10.5 10.9 .. .. .. .. Colombia 5.9 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 1.8 2.3 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.9 Middle Eas t an d North Africa 7 .7 1 1 .8 1 2 .2 .. 6 .9 6 .0 4 .5 4 .8 3 .1 2 .7 3 .0 3 .7 2 .6 1 .9 3 .7 Saudi Arabia 2.4 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 Iran 14.8 20.6 19.9 39.2 39.6 42.9 42.9 32.7 23.7 32.0 29.7 28.9 19.7 17.4 .. Egypt - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria 3.4 5.8 9.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.6 2.0 2.2 1.8 .. Sou th As ia 9 .8 9 .5 .. 7 .4 7 .2 8 .0 8 .4 7 .3 8 .6 8 .2 7 .3 7 .8 8 .5 8 .3 India 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.7 9.5 9.6 10.4 8.4 11.2 9.9 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.3 Pakistan 11.9 9.7 7.7 7.4 5.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 10.9 9.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 8.3 Bangladesh 6.0 10.3 6.5 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.3 .. Sri Lanka 10.4 6.7 7.5 6.9 9.2 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.3 5.6 4.8 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.2 Su b- Sah aran Africa 8 .5 9 .5 1 0 .8 .. 4 .7 4 .5 4 .9 4 .5 5 .1 4 .4 4 .0 5 .0 4 .4 6 .0 6 .1 South Africa 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.1 6.2 .. Nigeria 12.5 10.8 12.2 8.5 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 Memo: 2.1 OECD 7.5 2.7 2.1 .. 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 Developing excl. China 8.0 8.4 8.1 .. 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.1 3.7 3.9 4.4 Developing oil exporters 4.5 9.6 9.4 .. 4.5 4.6 3.5 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.5 4.1 3.7 4.0 4.8 Developing non-oil exporters 6.7 5.2 .. 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.0 Asian high tech exporters .. .. a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates. June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates (percentage a/) Av erage 2013 2014 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr World High - in come cou n tries b - 1 .4 5 - 1 .4 5 - 1 .4 5 - 1 .4 5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 .. .. .. .. .. .. United States (US Federal funds rate) 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.09 Japan (Discount Rate) 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.75 0.58 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.30 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 10.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (Discount rate) 3.13 3.13 3.13 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.36 0.37 .. .. .. .. Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 0.39 Dev elopin g cou n tries Eas t As ia an d P acific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 7.18 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 4.93 4.98 6.32 7.45 8.01 7.44 7.71 7.92 8.00 8.09 8.14 Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 1.50 3.00 2.94 2.56 2.75 2.63 2.50 2.38 2.13 2.25 .. 2.25 .. 2.00 2.00 Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 4.48 5.48 6.48 7.48 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 5.47 5.57 7.21 7.37 10.42 7.36 7.82 8.33 11.10 11.84 10.83 Poland (Interbank 2 week) 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 3.75 2.95 2.38 2.46 2.47 2.46 2.46 2.47 2.47 2.48 2.49 Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 L atin America an d Caribbean .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.25 7.63 8.62 9.63 10.51 9.55 10.00 10.26 10.53 10.75 10.98 Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.17 3.81 3.82 3.45 3.36 3.47 3.41 3.40 3.39 3.29 3.36 Argentina (30 Day deposit) 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.43 13.29 14.44 15.71 16.87 20.84 16.35 17.78 18.79 21.69 22.05 22.53 Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 4.90 4.09 4.02 4.04 3.98 4.04 4.04 4.04 3.98 3.92 3.82 Middle Eas t an d North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.98 0.96 0.96 0.92 0.95 0.96 0.85 0.96 0.95 0.95 .. Egypt (IMF discount rate) 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.25 10.25 9.25 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 8.75 Algeria (IMF discount rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sou th As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 9.00 9.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 10.63 10.63 10.63 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 7.50 7.22 7.00 6.57 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Su b- Sah aran Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa (Repo rate) 11.61 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.35 5.00 5.00 5.04 5.50 5.50 5.50 Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: OECD .. .. Developing excl. China .. .. Developing oil exporters .. .. Developing non-oil exporters .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day before the note becomes available). June 19, 2014 JUNE 2014 Table A.11 Stock Markets (indices, year 2010=100) Av erage 2013 2014 2013 2014 2000-10 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May World .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. High - in come cou n tries .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States 98 112 122 141 134 143 146 151 155 154 155 152 156 157 158 Japan 109 101 93 112 101 111 115 117 114 116 117 112 111 108 109 Euro Area 79 111 94 93 98 88 89 96 86 91 88 86 78 80 82 United Kindgom 123 108 107 131 125 130 139 150 159 148 154 155 155 153 155 Other high incomea .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) 68 102 96 110 116 115 112 119 118 118 118 115 116 120 118 Singapore .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Taiwan (China) 83 110 100 108 109 110 110 115 116 110 111 110 112 115 115 Dev elopin g cou n tries a, b 63 105 98 100 109 103 99 104 99 101 97 96 97 101 102 Eas t As ia an d P acific c ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 59 97 90 96 102 94 94 101 95 100 95 93 91 94 92 Indonesia 42 117 117 116 145 149 122 109 113 100 104 110 120 125 125 Thailand 59 125 139 156 198 197 177 174 157 164 153 157 163 169 168 Malaysia 63 116 119 126 136 146 140 145 141 144 140 139 141 144 146 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation 79 114 98 96 101 91 91 98 86 93 91 86 76 78 81 Turkey 61 89 87 101 126 126 102 101 81 90 79 76 77 91 96 Poland 82 107 86 95 97 91 93 102 100 97 94 98 96 99 97 Czech Republic 67 103 86 72 73 65 63 69 68 64 63 66 68 70 70 L atin America an d Caribbean 52 101 91 85 97 89 80 83 74 78 74 72 73 80 82 Brazil 49 97 82 71 80 73 64 68 59 62 59 56 58 65 68 Mexico 62 111 117 128 144 137 132 132 127 135 131 125 124 129 133 Argentina 68 113 56 62 66 63 72 96 89 99 87 82 91 104 105 Middle Eas t an d North Africa 70 108 99 98 108 99 97 102 95 98 95 93 93 96 99 Egypt 60 73 74 71 72 64 65 74 85 80 83 87 91 90 93 Sou th As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India 52 94 81 82 94 90 81 86 87 85 85 83 89 93 96 Pakistan .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Bangladesh 34 78 56 51 61 57 58 59 67 63 67 72 68 70 68 Sri Lanka .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Su b- Sah aran Africa ... . .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 61 111 109 105 120 109 110 115 112 112 110 108 115 120 123 a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period 1995-2002 Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months. b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia Source: World - Morgan Stanley Capital International Index; USA - Wilshire 5000; Japan - Topix; Euro Area - S&P EUROPE 350; UK - Standard and Poor's 350; Hong Kong - Hang Seng Composite; Singapore - Singapore Stock Exchange Composite Index; All Others are IFC/S&P Indices June 19, 2014