33877
             v 1

  
 




    
 , ,  

  2004 

                           

    
                           




                               2004 




_______________________________________
    
 
,  

                      


          

          

        -  

        -  

        - 

        

          

         

         

          

JBIC        (Japan Bank for International
        Cooperation)

          

      

       

         

        

             

          

            

            

&       

       

          

                 

        - 

   :  
         

                                                    
 ............................................................................................................................ I

 ...................................................................................................................................................II

 I:  ............................................................................................................................1

 II:       
 -..................................................................................................................................4

.        .......................................7
B.    .........................8

 III:     
  ..........................................................................................9

A.  ............................................................9
B.      ....................................12
.     ..........................................................................15

 IV:        
 .............................................................................................................................17

A. ..........................................................................................................................17
B. .................................................................................................21
C.      ...............................................28

 V:    ........................................................32

A.  ................................................................................................................32
B. ...........................................................................................................33
C. .................................................................................................................35
D. ......................................................................................................36
E. ..........................................................................................39

 VI:    ...................................43

A.................................................................................................................................43
B.............................................................................................................................................47
. ..............................................................................................................................................48
D......................................................................................................................................52
E...........................................................................................................................................55

 VII:  ....................................................................59

A.    ..............................................................................................59
B.,     ...................................60
C.    ..............................................61
D.   -  .............................62

 VIII: ,    ..............................70

. ...........................................................................................................................70
B.............................................................................................................................................70
C.   ....................................................................................................74

                                                                        

 ES 1:      ...............................................................vii
 ES 2:    () ...............................................vii
 ES 3:     ..............................................................................xi
 ES 4:           
....................................................................................................................................................................xii

 1. 1:      ...............................................1

 3.1:     /  -
   2002  .........................................................................................................9
 3.2:      2002 .......................................................10
 3.3: ,        2002 ...............................................11
 3.4:       2003 ...............................................................13
 3.5:          
1990-2000..................................................................................................................................................14

 4.1:   :  ........................................19
 4.2:      ...........................................20
 4.3:        ............................................21
 4. 4:    ..............................................28
 4.5:  ,    ()..........................................29
 4.6:         30

 5.1:        ......................32
 5.2:        
/     ..................................34
 5.3:      ............................................................36
 5.4:   .............................................................................39
 5. 5:       .........................................41
 5.6:           
 ...................................................................................................................................................41

 6.1:    ................................................45
 6.2:  ­    ()   
 ()..........................................................................................................................................45
 6.3:      ......................................................46
 6.4:    ............................................................................54

 7. 1:    (   ........................................61

                                                                        

 S 1:       - .....vi

 4.1:     ......................................................................20
 4.2:        ...........25
 4.3:         
............................................................................................................................................26
 4.4:   ,  .........................................................................30

 5.1:          
         ....37
 5.2:          
          (  
)....................................................................................................................................................38
 5.3:   ,    ..........................................................40

 6.1:    ...............................................44
 6.2:       2001  ................................................................50
 6.3:    .......................................................................................51

 7. 1:           ..............................................65
 7. 2:       ....68

 8. 1...................................................................................................................................................75

                                                               

 2. 1:     .................................................................4

 7. 1:   ,     .........67
 7. 2:       ......................................................69



                                    (  )

 3.1:                              
                             
 4.1:                        
 4.2:                         :                                                                                                            
                           
 4.3:                         
 5.1:                         
 5.2:                           
 5.3:                          
 7.1:                         -
                          
 7.2:                      «-» - 

 8.1:                        - 

     

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 ii.       .         
             
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iii.       
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           iii

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 iii.         
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 iv.        .
             
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          .

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3           
.


            v

                 ,      
                .



 INTERIM                  
CG MEETING

 Copenhagen         
 April 29, 2002


                                        :
                                         II
                           
                                     
                                      


                                    
                                             ?
               
                             
                            : 



                   
                            :
                           -

                        
                      :  II 
                         I

                   
                   


                     
                   1- 5     3 - 10       8 - 15 

                         


   S 1:       -
                                   




                                      vi

             

6.  ES1   4    
  ,  ,    
  2025 .

      ES 1:     
                                   ()
                2003       2010       2015       2020            2025
               58 944     72 056     84 034     98 367          115 146
               12 145     9 222      10 033     11 296          12 719
               16 348     11 267     12 410     13 972          15 731
               48 691     46 597     51 255     56 589          62 479
4              136 128    139 142    157 731    180 225         206 075
:   

7.  ,       2005-2010 .  
,   , ,  ,  
    .  , , 
         2005 ­ 2010 .,  
    ,     
  ,   ,   ,
    .

8.          ,
        
  ,   .  ES 2  
    .

     ES 2:    ()
       2003 .*                                           138 ,7
                                                         14 ,4
                                                         26 ,9
                                                         49 ,3
         2025 .                                          229 ,3
      *  5-   
      :   

9.  ES2 ,      
 2020       .  
         
    .                                        
       

4    ,      .
       . ,   
     .  ,     
   ,    .


                          vii

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10. ,       , 
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 i.  ,     ,  
          
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     1998     -  
           
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          .                 ,
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    ,        
       .

 ii.  ,      
        .                  
            
        ,  ,  
        .                   , 
      ,     
    ,         
    ,    .

iii.       
        .                 , 
           ­  
     « -I»  800      « -
     II»  400    .  « »  670
              
    .

11.       
:

 i.         
    ,          
    .



                 viii

 ii.        , 
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   -  ()   -
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13. , , ,    ­    
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     .




             ix

14.        
.          
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15. ,       .
        
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,           
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  .

16.        .       
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17.         , 
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    .

18.       
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).        
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 500-   -.     
        
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           x

    

19.          
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20.     ,   « -I»   
« -II»        
    ,  
       
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.

21.  ES3        
 5:


        ES 3:     

                                     
No.                                   
                             /               
                                       / 
                                       

 1        I              800   1,68     1,75    1
   
 2        II           2 400   2,76     2,92    5

 3        II             400   2,55     2,67    4
   
 4        I            1 900   7,17     8,54    9

 5        II            360    3,72     3,95    7

 6                       670   1,97     2,44    2

 7         I           1 200   2,46     2,91    3

 8         I  II       3 600   2,83     3,24    6

 9                     1 000   4,54     5,05    8
:   

22.   ,   -I    ,
  ­       , 
-II   .      ,  
   ,    
,      ,  
 .


5  ,     . 
    .


                 xi

23.     ,     
    .                         
-I.          
  (       ) 
     ES4.

  ES 4:        
                    
                     (/)
                                      

                                     
                                     -
                                       
        3,7   ,  I,  I  II    0,51    2,26 ­ 3,43
        3,6   ,  I,  I  II    0,54    2,29 ­ 3,46

        5,6   , ,  I  II, 
               II             0,51    2,26 ­ 3,75

        3,6   ,  I            0,72    2,47 ­ 3,16
        3,0   ,  I            0,55    2,30 ­ 2,99
:   

24.     -     
  ,        . 
    ,   , 
        
.  ,     
       ,  
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,     ,       
   .

25. ,  ,   ,    
- ,     
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-      
    ,     
   ,       
       .




                      xii

                 I: 

1.01 -  (),  , 
,      
.     ,     1.1    
 .          ,    
    ,    
     ,    
.

 1. 1:      
    
                                                                   
                 

           1,100    5.5         1.7           75           82      1,264.20

           1,500     5          5           2,252         1,476     5,238

          24,300    580        500       Insignificant    2,851    28,231

          26,900    591        507          2,327         4,409    34,734

%          77.4     1.7         1.5          6.7          12.7       100

 /        27,000   163,000    317,000       2,000        15,000    524,000

       /    2.3      14        27.3          0.2           1.3       45.1

%           5.2     31.1       60.5          0.4           2.9       100


1.02     ,    
   ,                              
  .      
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1.03        
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:

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  .

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       .

1.08         
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6    .   2003      -
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.           
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1.10     ,  
     , 
          
 ,       
        .

1.11-      
      ,    ,
  ,    .   
  ,      
  .     (a) 
       ; (b) 
       ,  (c) 
     .

1.12     :   
     ( III);   (20-)  
       , 
   ( IV);    , 
     ,   
     ,     
 ( V);      -
 ( VI);     , 
       
     ( VII);  ,    
, ,    ,    
   ( VIII).




             3

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           -

2.01  «       »,
     ,    ,
       «  ­  
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 2.1.

         2. 1:     
           
  ,         
       ,    ,   
 .  ,   ,   75 % 
               25 % 
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.

   ,   ,     ,  
   .             , 
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   ,         
     ,    .    , 
   1998    ,     
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        .

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         ; (d)  
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;  (e)       ,   
 .

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     .


2.02       ,  
 2004 .      2004     


                4

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2.03     ,     
         
:

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      .
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       ,    ,    .

2.04   ,  , ,    ,
  ,     
 :

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      .7       
         2 . . .    ,  
            




7         {
  0,690 . . .},      (0,650-
0,750 . . .)   (0,3 . . .)     
  0.8 . . .   .


                      5

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2.05        , 
USAID,   ,      
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2.06       
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 II (   IV  V).     
  ,  ,     2010 ;   
       
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     2020 .

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                 6

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         .           
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       .

   b)   ,      
          .                
        ,   
              
              . 
      ,   :      (i)  
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               ;  (ii)
         500- -    ,
            ,   
           .

   c)         
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          - 
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               7

           
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    .

2.09         
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 .

B.      

2.10     
()          ,
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    )    
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         .




         8

   III:   
          

A.    

3.01    , ,  
          
     - 
 (),        
.8        9  
   3.1.

3.02  .           .     
-      3.1.                                    
. -,     150 . -,  
     134,445 ,   
    97,984 ,     
  27%.


    3.1:     / 
         -   2002 

          
                                                   

   
 ()       2,950      4,059     1,710     2,000     10,719

   
 ()        763       346       9,870     16,240    27,219

  
  ()      3,713      4,405     11,580    18,240    37,938

  
 ()        3 100     3,428     7,800     13,840    25,068

   ()     2,687      2,901     7,925     9,432

   ()     10,778    15,086     7,278     8,861     42,003

   ()     1,115      138       42,021    49,317    92,591

   ()     11,893    15,224     49,299    58,178    134,594

  ()      1,216      266        634       595      2,711

  ()       430       1,058      609       464      2,561

   
   ()     11,107    16,016     49,274    58,048    134,445

   
    ()    6,836     12,988     38,112    40,053    97,989



3.03      2002  22 945 . 
 ,      40% ,   ,


8           .
   2003          , 
         . 
   ,         
  .
9    -      

                          9

   ,       
       , 
    ,    ,  
 ,      .
      (   ),  
.

3.04  .              3.2,   
   ,   56%      
.          , 
       .    
      67%  60%   
 .                 
       ,
           .
         
 ,       
    .


       3.2:      2002 

              
                                       

     (%)      33     57    47    40    44

     (%)      67     43    53    60    56


3.05        ,
           
   .       
 ,      .   
         
 .

3.06      .                         
     ,  
      1990-1998      
  ,   1990 .              , 
 ,        
,      .                             
     ()   
()    ,       
 .                
 58%     2003 .   
       ,  
       .                                  
        8%  1990   34% 
2001 .




                 10

3.07 ,    .                         
 ( ),                     (
,        ).                                 
    ,     ,
        
.       , 
,                                   , 
     .  
 .              ,    
 18%  ,   22  23%    .  
  5% -18%   .    ,  
    70  85% .      
     ,     , 
   ,          40 
55%   . ,       50%
  ,    35%  40%    . 
          
,        .  
 ,         3.3.


       3.3: ,        2002 .

                                              

  ()           4,271       3,028    11,162    17,995

  ( %  
)               38         19*       23        31

   ()           1.1       1,0        4.1       4.3

  ( %  )        80          70       85        N/A

 ( %   )        80          70       75        85

               55%         60%      60%       45%
*  

3.08  .     500,
  1400 ,     
         .    
       ,     
,    ,   
.       500 (  ­ ),
    ( ­ ).     
      220.                        
           
      
           
 .               
       500 -
        -
,   .




                     11

3.09   , ,     
       
 .              ,  
             -      (    
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.            
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   .      
    .

B.         .


3.10          
   .    ,   
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    ,       
 3.1.

3.11    ,  .    
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    :

    ·      .          85%
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       . 21    () 
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      100     .    
      ,        
     .     
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           .
                
          -.


              12

    ·     ,  ,  
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   ·    .                        
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      .                        
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3.12   .     
 0,5 /    2,64 /  ,    
    ,     3.4.                                  
         ,
     .                              
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    2001  (    10%   
),         2005 .  
     , , ,
        .


             3.4:       2003 
                                                  

  (/)                     1.40    0.50    2.15*    2.64

   (/)**                  2.30    2.10    3.50     2.80

   %                      61%     24%     61%      94%
* 2004.; ** .  III   4.1  


3.13   .      , 
85%    (    )
   ,   9    
.         .

                          13

    ,   
   -   
  25- .                  
   ,  ,   
         .
       (50%
 )  4   (30% ) 
 49%       
.

3.14 .                  
    1990 ,     3.5.                                
/  2000    30%   1990 ,   , 
         80%   1990 .
 1992        
     ,  , 
   ,   1993      
         
,      .                             
  ,      ,  , 
    .                                      
       
 .       
 ,         
  10.            ,  
 ,     , 
     .                                   2000   
      5000    12 ,  
   7   .


     3.5:       
                 1990-2000.
                   1990  ()

                        

                *                                     

         --     277     0       0     310       0      587

        697     --      0       0     2383      0     3080

         0      324     --      0     2344      0     2668

         0       0      0      --     6066      0     6066

        8139     0     3927    946     --       0     13012

  *      0       0      0       0      0        --      0

        8836    601    3927    946   11103.2    0

                   2000  ()




10,            (   35) 
,        (,   
 ).



                        14

                          

                  *                                  

           --      0      0      0      0      0      0

          1253    --     154     0     1926    0     3333

            0     126     --     0     244     0     370

           35      0     819     --     68     0     921

            0     195    729     32     --     0     956

  *       2224     0      0      0      0      --    2224

          3512    320    1702    32    2237    0
*   .

  1990-2000 .      :

   ·        85%  8,8   1990   1,3
       2000 .
   ·   ,           ,                       
     ,     6%  2000  
       1990 , 2000      
        ,    ,   
       .                   
      2   ,      35%.  
        50%  0,6   1990   0,3   2000 .
   ·      56%  3,9   1990   1,7   2000
     .        85%  2,7   0,4.
   ·      97%  0,9   0,03 ,  
       85%  6,1   0,9 .
   ·    1990  2000     80%  11,1   1990 
      2,2   2000 .    92%  13,0   1990   1,0
       2000 .

3.15  ,   2000 ,   
  , ,       -
 .                        
 ,       
   .

.        

3.16           
,   ,      
    .  :

   ·    ,      
          ;
   ·   ,       (
          ),  ,  
     , : (a)    ; (b) 
        (,  
     ,   );  (c)    
     ,        .

                          15

   ·   ,      , 
             
          .         
         ,  
              
        .
   ·            
          .
   ·        
        ,     
         ,  
     .      /
       .

3.17          
    ,    ,    ,
           
.    ,       
       
   .    , 
  .  ,      ,  
       .




             16

 IV:       
            

4.01          : 
        ,  
    , ,   ,   
  .

A.    

     (i)      .

4.02 ,     
        .
   ,      
         
,      .   ,  
  ,     -  
 - ,     .             
,           , 
    ,   .   
  ,       
 ,         
.   ­  
 ­      .                    
 ,    ,
,    ,      
  ,     
         .
, ,        .
    ,     
      .  
   ,     ,  
    .                ,  
          
.       ,  
    .

     (ii)     

4.03        , 
        (    
  ),      
      .11  ,

11 ,             
 .       0,5%  1%  ,  4%  6% 
   ,  6%  8%     .

               17

      4.1.  
    .

    ·       :
          ,     
           1,2  1,4 (..  
            1,2 
      1,4 ).       ( 
         )     ,   
             . 
     ,          
           ,    
        0,8.       
         .
   ·  :        
          ­0,1  ­0,2, ,    
             0,1 
     0,2 .          
         ( , ),  :
                  
          .            
           ,    ,   
           ,    ;
              (, ),     
            ; 
                ­   
                  , 
            .
            
          () .             
              
          .     ,   
            .  
       , ,     
         ­0.1,     
      (      
       80%  300% ) ­0,3.
    ·  :   ,   ,
       ,    ,  
     ,     .  , 
       ,       
      .

          (iii)   

4.04         
 4.1         .            
 ( 2010 )        


                  18

   0,31%.          ,
    ,        
   2,94%.        ( 2025.)    
    ,      
 1,90%  .      (3,09%),   
     0,17%       2003 .

      4.1:   :  
                               ()                                 
             2003      2010    2015     2020     2025    2003-   2003-    2003-    2003-
                                                          2010    2015     2020     2025
            58,944    72,056   84,034  98,367   115,146  2.91%   3.00%    3.06%    3.09%
            12,145     9,222   10,033  11,296   12,719   -3.86%  -1.58%   -0.43%   0.21%
            16,348    11,267   12,410  13,972   15,731   -5.18%  -2.27%   -0.92%   -0.17%
            48,691    46,597   51,255  56,589   62,479   -0.63%  0.43%    0.89%    1.14%
            136,128   139,142 157,731  180,225  206,075  0.31%   1.24%    1.66%    1.90%


 4.05         
          ;  
     94%     ( III,  3.4),
        .  
         2005-2020  
    ,    ,  
      103%    ,  
    .     .
      2025      ­ -
           
          2003 . 
       2010 ,     
   .                              
    : (a)     1990- , 
    87%     ; (b)  
    ,  (c)      37%  
 .

       (iv)   

 4.06      III,      
 .       ,    
  (   )        (  
 )       .  
    ,    ,  
 .             (      )
  ,      . 
          
       .    
     .     58%
      ( 4.1).   , 


                                         19

           ,
        .




   25,000


   20,000


   15,000


   10,000


    5,000


       0

                     

       2005.   2010.   2015.      2020.     2025.

              4.1:     
                     , 2005-2025.

      (v)  

4.07    ,      ­  
         ,   , 
      ­   
     -                                     
.                  
   .      4.2,
      4.1.

              4.2:    
                            
                                
                        1%                 1%   
                                                  
                              0.74                0.08
                              0.53                0.52
                              0.64                0.74
                              0.45                0.22
                              0.63                0.20


4.08    ,         
         . 
  2005-2025 ,     1%   


                                 20

   0,63%,      1%   ,  
 0,2%.           -.
         
        , 
 ,     ,   
     .   ,  
,     .     
    ,      
     .     
       .

B.    

4.09         :
(a)          
    ; (b)    
 ;  (c)    .

     (i)  

4.10        
        
     .  4.3   
          , 
      .                            
   ,   
        .  
       ,   
 .   ,       
 8%       4% - 5%,   
    ,   (  ,  
   2003 ,   90%   1990 );   , 
     12.


         4.3:        
                                             
            * (%)                
              (2004.)     (%)                 () 
                                              2010.

                24       15      2004-2010    5,843

                34       13      2004-2010    1,39213

                28       13      2004-2010    1,988

                25       15      2004-2010    4,064

*    ,      ( ).

12 80           
   ,         
 ,          
,      .

13   220   2001 .

                         21

4.11,        ,  
  .        
 ,     2005-2010 ,  
  13 287    2010 . ,   
           
,  3 009      2004 .

     (ii)   

4.12        
.         .
        
( -1).          
     .                            ,
          
    .

   ·         
      9 870     (  11 
     ),     8 200 .  
       35  /    200 000 ,
            7 800 .  
          
         ,       81
          - ,   
      200       
         ,   .
           -
     ,    ,  .   
          2004-2023 , 
       1,15   ,    
              
       32 000  (  2005-2025.),     
        .

   ·  ,        ( 
      )            
     .    I  II,    .
          , 
            (29% 
       I,      77%; 51% 
       II; 52,5%  ,  54%  );  
       58%     
        10 600    2015 . , 
        I  440   , 
           11 283 .               
       ,    1,070
            (770 

                  22

               300
           ,  
       )       
         60%.     
           17 118 .

      (iii)    

4.13           , 
  14.

   ·     15:    II
             500 ,     
       ,        500
       .         
       .                          
          1 085   .16 
       1000    1 ,    1300 
        ,     .17 , 
           2008-2011 ,  ,    
          7 446 .

   ·   II   :  ,  
        II,    .                                     
        1985 ,     1992 .                            
               
       800 ,      1 .  
          ,      ,  
       ,   /   ,  
            47 ,   .
               
      -.                           220   
      ,    .                                     
        400      
           , ,
              
         .      
          ,      
      ,       2007 ,   
        2 453   2007  2008 .   


14 ,    ,     ..,  
 ,     .                                         ,  
  .
15  , 50%          
        .
16RWE Solutions/Lahmeyer International:     -, 2002 .
17,  ,         
 .

                                          23

      , ,     
    200   .18

  ·   I    II    
     .            I  
     ,  1 900 ,   
      ,          
      (.  4.2).  ,  
      275 ,      
    ,                   
    / ,            
     .             
     3,4    ,     
    .       180 , 
        5 000    
      30%.        
     (       14
       ),       
     I         
    ,  ,       
    .       
            
         .              
      I   1,67   ,   
           ( 265
      ),     1,94  
     ( 1000 /).,   8   
      9    ,      2017
    ,        2020 .




18    ,   600  700   1   
   ,     , ,  
 500  /.

                 24

                                                            Chui                                              Almaty


                                                                         Glavnaya
                   Jambal                                   Kara Balta
                                                                                 Tokmak
                                                               Ala Archa
   Shymkent                                                                             Kemin
                                   Semetey
                                                                       Bishkek                 Balykchy
                                  Talas                 Frunzenskaya
                                                                        TET

                               Toktogul             Ala Bel                                                   Tamga
                               Cascade

                                                        Kambarata 2        At Bashi
                                     Kurpsai   Toktogul                    Hydro
                            Tash Kumyr                                           Naryn
                       Uch Kurgan             Shamaldi Sai                             Ak Kiya Upper Naryn
     Tashkent                 Krystal                                                          Hydro
                                                  Datka
                                                   October
                                                      Jalalabad
                                 Lochin

                                                  Osh TET
                       Stepnaya
                                              Uzlovaya                                                 500 kV            220 kV          110 kV
                                                                                                                                         110 kV

                                                                                                                Existing        Existing
                                                                                       Substations
                                     Alai                                              and Lines
                    Aigul Tash                                                                                  Proposed        Proposed
  Kara Bulak Bakten

                                                                                                                Existing        Existing
                                                                                      Power Stations
                                                                                      and Lines                 Proposed        Proposed
                II                             I
:  -                                                                              KYRGYZSTAN ELECTRICITY SYSTEM
                                                                                                            KYRGYZSTAN ELECTRICITY

, , , 2003.                                                                                                 SYSTEM


 4.2:       
                                                                      

·  II   ,   
   ,       I,  
   (.  4.2).                                                                                         
  360     I,  240    
 .                     ,                                          ,                                       
   ,   62 ,     
    / , 
       .   
    1,100    240   1,260    360
 .                     , 
    .  20%   ,  
          280 
       240 ,    . 
      1  II   1,167 
  .  ,     I,   
     II,       
       ,     
         .                                                                                                                                   
   ,   , ,  ,   
        -
   ,       2008/09 ,  
      2012 .




                                                                        25

  4.3:        
            

  ·        
        (.  4.3).  
             3 600.
               335 .
         ,    
     ,       
        ,   ,   800
       (   ).  1992  
        .  , 
       ,   2,1   19.
     I          
       ,    , 


19       2,9   ,
 ,   , 800     .

            26

       ;   ,   
        800 .     I
      4,300 ,      400  
      .            , ,     I,
       785   .

   · ,    II,     
         335     
       2 800 ,  1,67   .  
      II,       13,000 , 
           1,300 .

   ·        ,
              (.
     4  5   4.3.)   .      
      ,     1992     
        .                  
            670 ,  
        2,700 .              60%  
         (   ),     
     .       482  
     ,   ,   114   .  
         368   .

   ·       ,
            800  .                
         ,    
      .        ,  
          .                      
             
     ,     2005 .         ,    
         100   , 
        60%              4,537    
     .     .     
      .         
         800  , ,  ,  
      2009-2013         .
           1,2  
      (500  /1),     . 
             
     13,613 .

            (iv)   

4.14          
      139   2003   228   2025 .
 54%        
, 16%         


                      27

 ,   30% -     
 (.  4.4).     45%  ,
       (22% )   
(9%).   4.2        
   .

4.15       ,    
      
      :

   ·   ,     
           (   II),  
         1,5     , 
      ,   1,5    ;
   ·        
           (, , ),   
        860      .


        4. 4:    
                        ()   ,  :

                                      
                                                
                                      

                                                41,094
                 5843       28401     6850
                                                45%

                                                10,121
                 1612         -       8509
                                                11%

                                                19,678
              1,988 +860      -       16830
                                                22%

                                                19,637
                 4064       -1489     17062
                                                22%

                14,367      26,912    49,251    90,530

                 16%         30%      54%       100%
:     3        
   .  860         
    .



C.          

4.16        2005-2025  ( 
  ,      
     )   
   4.5.  ,   2005   
,  7.4 .       ,
    43.4   20020  2025 ,  
   16.5 ,      
.          ,   , 
   .                      
 (2015.)   (2020.).

                            28

4.17         .
 2005        1,6  (2%  ),
          
.    2010   6.9 ,   2020    15.5
.  2025 , ,        
.           (, ,
)  2020 ,   I  II,     II.                            
  ,        .
       2010 .                                          
       (.  4.5   4.4).



       4.5:  ,   
                    ()
                2005.   2010.   2015.   2020.   2025.

                3198    3623    6876    3745     -234
                -2504   -2969   -130    -5563   -12318

                 694     654    6746    -1818   -12552

                4737    6283    6863    6406     5991
                -2092   1584    1517    5761     4753

                2645    7866    8381    12167   10744

                1511    4587    6767    12579   11697
                 96     2841    4287    8308     7431

                1607    7429    11055   20887   19128

                1620    3904    7635    5088     2091
                2862    5485    9846    7058     3767

                4482    9389    17481   12147    5858

                11066   18396   28142   27819   19545
                -1637   6942    15521   15564    3633

                9429    25338   43663   43383   23178




4.18 ,       
    .                           
,     ,     ,  
 (      ,   , 
  ).  ,       
.




                     29

             
         30000

         20000

         10000

             0
                2005    2010     2015       2020     2025
         -10000

                                       

          4.4:   ,  


       
 

4.19           
    . ,    
        
    4.6.      
          ,
           
         .
,      90%    .

    4.6:       
                         
                       (  )
                  2004-  2006-   2011-   2016-  2021-   2004-   
                  2005   2010    2015    2020   2025    2025     (/)


                  324.0  972.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    1296.0    2.8
  -1               0.0   308.0   132.0    0.0    0.0    440.0     2.65
    
                   0.0   395.9   460.1   214.0   0.0    1070.0    2.75

                  324.0  1675.9  592.1   214.0   0.0    2806.0    2.8

 
                  50.0   200.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    250.0     2.3
                  50.0   200.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    250.0     2.3


                  25.0   285.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    310.0     2.1
                  25.0   285.0    0.0     0.0    0.0    310.0     2.1


                  172.9  691.8   288.2    0.0    0.0    1153.0    3.5
                  87.0   522.0   246.8   80.7   213.5   1150.0    3.6

                  259.9  1213.8  535.0   80.7   213.5   2303.0    3.5
                  658.9  3374.7  1127.1  294.7  213.5   5669.0



                               30

4.20  4.6        
     /1  
  ,    .  , 
     /1 (  2004 )  2,1
  ; 2,3    ; 2,8     3,5
  .     4.1.




            31

       V:    

5.01           : 
     ,    ?
          
?         
?

A.    

5.02        
   20    5.1.  ,  
 I    ,  .   
    (     )  
II   .

     5.1:       

                      .         1           .
                     (.                    -       .

                      )        -                    ()
                                            ()

              (. )     370     2009   670    2,700   2,673
  I           ()       785     2014  1,200   4,690   4,643
  I  II       ()      $2,455   2014  3,600  14,300   14,157
  I           ()      1,940    2017  1,900   5,100   5,049
           
  II          (. )     280     2012   240    1,116   1,105
           
  II          ( )      196     2007   400    2,453   2,355
           
  I          ,         100     2005   800    4,537   4,265
               
  II         ,        1,200    2011  2,400  13,613   12,796
               
             ,         440     2010  2,000  12,264   11,283
               
             ,        1,085    2020  1,000   7,446   6,850
               


5.03     ,   I  II 
 ,          3,600,        
   ,     3,200 .
    ,    ,  
         ,
     1  
,      .   
,        18,150
,    65%.             


20     4   500    -I,  
AES  ,            
   ,     .

               32

(, 85%),    21    22, 
,  ,     .  
       14,300 23,   
 45%.       ( 
  20  30%),     ,  
       ,      20
  .     I 
  ,    12,300 , 
  70%,        .

5.04 ,        , 
   -I,     -II, 
          . 
  ,       ,   
  4 ,      2009 .      
  ,    -I, 
    ,  4-5 ,    ,
 7 .        
         ,  
 .           , ,   
        2014 ,   
-I  2017 .  -II       2012 ,
     ,     
 -I24.       ,  -II  
 ,       
 .         ,   -II,  
  2009 ,          2011 .
        2016 ,  
       2019 .

B.    

     (i)   

5.05     ,             
       ,    
 5.2.      5.1,  

21     800 , ,    
   65%,   /   
     . ,    
    .      , 
   .
22     ,    .
    15 ,      
     .
23     1,300    .
24            
      ,     .  
  -I,     ,    
 .

                33

     ,    ( ),  
      ,                         ,                 
     (..       
     ).                   , 
            
     (..     ).                                              
   -I    ,      
   ,      .     
      2003 .

   5.06      -I,
          
  .       ,   
   -II,     (   
    )     .                                        
   ,      
       (60%),      ,   
    ,       
     ,    ,   .

   5.07   ,  -I  
        7,17 /,   
    .     ,    1
      50%  (1,021      682
   ),       (31%    41%).
    -I       , 
   ,    ­I    ,    
    .                       
  ,         
     .

   5.2:        
       /    

                                 
                                         (/)
            /
                 ./                                   
                   
                          3.7    3.56   5.6   3.0    3.6  4.0

           1.97    2.1                                   
  I        2.46    2.1                                   
  I  II    2.83    2.1                                   
  I        7.17    2.3                                  
 
II         3.72    2.3                                  

  II       2.55    2.3                                   

 I         1.68    3.5                                   


 II        2.76    3.5                                   


           2.65    2.8                                   



                          34

 
        4.54    2.8                  



5.08     /   
    10%.               , ,  
           
,     ,  10%.   5.2  
          (a)
 ,      
     25;                        (b)
      .

5.09      ,   
     ,  
  .      
,   ,    I  II   
    26,      
        , 
     . , , 
 ,   -I    , 
 ,       .  
    ,    
      .

C.    

5.10      ,     
     .    ,   
         
  , ,     .
    ,                      
    ,    ..

5.11  ,     ,
( 5.1)    ,       
 ()   ,    .
     ,    
     25%   75%  . 
      ( 
       )   
( ,  ,     ,  
,       ).   
 :   - 10%,   - 15    
  . ,        15% 
   ,       


25        ,    
   ,   ,   .
26..         .

                       35

17%  24%    27.      /
    20- ,      
  .      28  ,  
     (  ) 
  .               /   
   5.3.


          5.3:     

                  ,           
                             /

                    2,673    2.44

        I           4,643    2.91

        I  II      14,157    3.24

        I           5,049    8.54

        II          1,105    3.95

        II          2,355    2.67

        I           4,265    1.75

        II         12,796    2.92

                   11,283    2.66

                    6,850    5.05


5.12  ,     
 ,    -I   , 
 -I  .

D.   

5.13  ,    ,  
 ,   ,    
       .

  

5.14    ,  
     ,   (  ,  
 ).   ,     
  .      
          , 
  ,  ,   
,    5.1  5.2.


27       ,  , - 
.         
 , , ,       ,   15% 
       .
28      .    , 
 ,     ,     , 
 ,      ,     ,
  ,  ,    .


                 36

AIC USc/kWh
  10


   9


   8


   7


   6
                                                                     Kazakh AIC 2.8 ¢/kWh
   5                                     Uzbek AIC 3.5 ¢/kWh

   4


   3


   2


   1      Tajik AIC 2.1 ¢/kWh                                              Kyrgyz AIC 2.3 ¢/kWh

   0
     10   15   20   25   30   35    40 45 50   55  60    65 70 75 80 85     Plant Factor %
           Sangtuda HPP                   Rogun HPP I               Rogun HPP I and II
           Kambarata 1 HPP                Kambarata 2 HPP           Talimatjan TPP Unit #1
           Talimatjan TPP Units #2-4      Bishkek 2                 Ekibastuz 1
           Kazakh New

   5.1:         
           
                                         

5.15       5.1                                
         
       .                                                                                         
   ,     
        
.                , 
   / .     
   ,     . 
            
 ,        
  (.  5.2).




                                                      37

AIC USc/kWh
10


 9

                                                                   Generation costs in
 8
                                                                   Pakistan 5.6 c/kWh
 7


 6


 5
                                                                           Generation costs in Afghanistan
 4                                                                          Iran and China 3.6 cents/kWh

 3


 2                                                                                      Generation costs in
                                                                                        Russia 3.0 c/kWh
 1


 0
     10   15   20   25   30   35    40 45 50   55  60   65 70 75 80 85     Plant Factor %
           Sangtuda HPP                   Rogun HPP I              Rogun HPP I and II
           Kambarata 1 HPP                Kambarata 2 HPP          Talimatjan TPP Unit #1
           Talimatjan TPP Units #2-4      Bishkek 2                Ekibastuz 1
           Kazakh New

      5.2:         
               
                                      (   )


    

  5.16             
  ,   ,   ,    
   .       5.4.  
     1,        
  ,        
    ,   . ,   ,
         ,     
    .                           
     ,   .  
           . 
           -I
    ,      ,   
         .




                                                       38

              5.4:   
                 
                                      , 

                                1.0%  1.0%  1.0% 
                     1.0%                                      1.0% 
              /                              *       **          

              2.44      1.25%        0.97%    0.70%    0.42%         ..

  1           2.91      1.25%        0.99%    0.71%    0.45%         ..

  1  2        3.24      1.25%        0.89%    0.79%    0.49%         ..

  1           8.54      1.25%        1.00%    0.82%    0.52%         ..

  2           3.95      1.25%        0.99%    0.38%    0.46%         ..

  2           2.67      0.83%        0.46%    0.30%    0.21%       0.34%

  1           1.75      0.37%        0.17%    0.09%    0.04%       0.71%

  2           2.92      0.81%        0.59%    0.47%    0.31%       0.17%

              2.66      0.63%        0.23%    0.18%    0.12%       0.50%
 

              5.05      0.60%        0.59%    0.46%    0.50%       0.29%
*1%  10%  10  ;
**1%     (17  ,     17%).

E.    

5.17    ,  - ,
   ,      
 .                     
,                    -
,     , ,  
       ()     
.

      

5.18    ,       
        ,  ,
       136  (2003.)    184
  1990 .        
    ,      .
      II  .   ,
   -     
,           ,  
     .      
       .  
        
         ,   
      .

5.19    ,  ,   , 
   5.3      (  
).

                                 39

         5.3:   ,   

5.20--  ,      
(  ),        
       
 ,   .       
      ­ -- ­  (
 ),      220   .  
           ­
-- ­ ,  , ,    .  
           (  
 ).     ,   
    -   .   
     500    
,    -,     
500     .

5.21 ,      , 
         /
   (.  5.2  ).    
5.5.




                40

      5. 5:      
                                              .      .

               . .            .                .      
                                .
                               . .             .      /
                                                /

                           .
 () ­  ()       1,050  500    10,000  1   1    390.0  0.66           0.72

 () ­  ()       515    500 . 5,000    2   1    153.0  0.43           0.51

 ()-  ()        360    500 . 3,000    1   1    90.5   0.44           0.49

 () ­  ()       1,150  500 . 10,000   4   1    320.0  0.53           0.59

                            

 ()-  ()        490    500 . 5,000    2   1    138.2  0.40           0.46

 () ­  ()       900    500 . 4,000    3   1    226.6  0.84           0.99


   

5.22         
 ,       (  
           ) 
     5.6.     -I 
,  ,     ,   ,  
I   II    ,   .                                                          
  II  ,    ­ II   
.

   5.6:         
                        
                          (/)
        
                                          
                                                        

         
         3.7   ,  1,  1  2                 0.51           2.26 ­ 3.43
         3.6   ,  1,  1  2                 0.54           2.29 ­ 3.46
         5.6   , ,  1  2,  2               0.51           2.26 ­ 3.75
         3.6   ,  1                        0.72           2.47 ­ 3.16
         3.0   ,  1                        0.55           2.30 ­ 2.99


 

5.23,         
     ,     
   :

  i.        
      2020        ,
       ;   , 
           
               
    .


                            41

 ii.       .           
           
       . ,      
     ,       
     .

iii.      
        I  ,   
     ,    ­ II   ,  
     .    ­ II     
                
          .          ,  
           .

iv.         
       ,    - 
     ,         -
     .

 v.         
             . 
     ,      ,         
           , 
             
     .

vi.          
            
      .    ,    
      ,  ,    , , ,
    ,       .

vii.      ,   
     II,          
      .          
             
            . ,  
           ,   
        ,              
     .




               42

    VI:    

A.   

6.01 :     ,
      . , 
     :  30   
 , 95      ;    
 100       . 
   ,       
  ,      ,     
 .            
 .            
        
1970- ,       .       
  2003       
   454 ,      
  28530      , 
     ,    ,
  --.      , 
   245 (200   45  
).         
65,          .

6.02         
,     -  ,        ,    
,    C 6.1.     
(, 20 ,        )    
.  ,    132  --    
( 150).




30  ,     , , , 2003 

            43

    :    ­       , ,
    2003.
           6.1:    

6.03        ,   
       .    
       , 2004 .  
  220,        110. 
         
   ()  --,    241.

6.04   :             
       
750,  ,      215  
.              ,  
  470   ,  121   
.

6.05    :       
   .               234 000     
.  202 000  .     
76 000 .    6%      .
  ,   ,    , 
  ,    ,    
   16/29, , ,    
.

6.06     :      
 ,        25%  2002 .
          20%. 
    45%,      .
  54%   .



29   ( AFG 36673)      
, , 2003.

                   44

6.07           :                                                       
        
(, ,   ..),      . -
       ( 
,     ,   50%
  ),     ,   .

6.08  :   
 , ,   .    
     6.1.


       6.1:    
                                                                  

  ()                     4             1               10              1

  ()                2  ();         - 5 ;      2  ();
                     2  ()        -  .        6  ()_                  150

  (.)                   /             /             15 .              /

 ( /)                   2.25           2               2               2
           : ,     .

6.09       , 
   150   10     2.0 
/    .      
  ­       
.

6.10 :    
         2020
,    6.2.

   6.2:  ­    ()   
                                  ()

                    
                                                                             


      .      .              .           .              .           .              .
                  .             .            .             .             .      
        359   111   212     55    571    166   1522    347   1047   239    2133   487
        49     8     9       5     58    13     260     54   176    36     374     78
         1     2    30       6     31     8     166     38   105    24     248     57
        28    14    75      12    103    26     358     80   248    55     604    129
        149   38    52      13    201    51     680    155   432    99     969    221
         1     2    36       8     37    10     325     74   196    45     509    111
        141   30    43      12    184    42     431     90   292    61     625    130
        22    10    13      10     35    20     126     67                 175     92
        750   215   470     121   1220   336   3868    905                 5637   1305
: -    , 2004 

6.11   ,     3 868
  2020 .       6,6%   

                                     45

(  )  9,5%    (2002.).                                               
  ,     5 636  2020 .  
46%        ,   
  8,9%    (  ),  11,9% 
  (2002.).

6.12        .    
()                                                              ,
     .                                                    
    .

            6.3:      
                                                                 
             /      /       /      /       /       /       /      /
                              2.0    4.1     2.5     5.1     4.0     8.2
 0-600 /       0.5    1.0
 600-1200 /    1.6    3.3
  1200/        2.5    5.1
               5.0    10.2    5.5    11.3    5.0     10.2    7.0     14.3
               5.0    10.2    5.5    11.3    5.0     10.2    7.0     14.3
   ..          5.0    10.2    6.0    12.3    10.0    20.5    10.0    20.5
:        , , 2003.


6.13             6.3.                                              
         
,         ,
      600  ,  
.

6.14        .                                             
   «  », 
,        ,  
      .                                                              
     ,      
     ,   
       .                                                         
        
      - .
         
    / ,   
 ;        ,
        .

6.15             ,
      ,  
.        
        
,  ,      
 ().                     


                                 46

  (     
,    ),        
 .         ,      
   2010 .    ­    /
     .

6.16    :    
           ,
     .    
        
      ,     
 .

B.   

6.17 : -       
  ,        
.    1,3    
     .      
 2002    353,      2002 
 1620.      74%      
  .      24%    .
 2%    .

6.18 :     95%     
.   72%   ,   
 (12%),   (5%)   (11%).

6.19    :        1994 
1998 ,      ,     
,   19  31       
,      .   
  ,       
     (1 062),  
   4,5%  2020      .

6.20 :     .     
«     »,       
  .  2000      
,     ,   . 
   2002 , ,      
 ,                 
      .     
.             2000  4,5 /.
,       .

6.21  :   2002     
 .                
        

                47

     .                   
     .

6.22     -   .                 
-         
,    17,5      
1,28%.         
         .  
 -        ,
     .

6.23    2001       4 744,
    19,6.                
   8%       7,6%.         1993  
,     5  
   10.

6.24         30  
   .         
  2 600 ,     5,2  
,   .     2007  ,   
  12       
.  ,      .

6.25   ,   ,       
          7-8%  . 
          
       .

6.26            
        ,      ,
    -    
  .    ,    
       ,   
 ,        
   .           -    
         ,
  .

.     31

6.27    65   (2000.)      1000 
,     .                  ,  
  8,6%   ,  17%   , 
     42 000   .  

30          80 
.
31            , 
  2003 .   ,  8000    .

               48

,         
        ,  
 ,   .

6.28   :     
.             , 
  ,       27
  ,       
 .                 16  
  39  ,  .                            
 27 ,   , 18  
       , 6 
    , 8      27
       ..,   ,
 .

6.29  :      
  2001   34 222,   1 998   ,  
  ,   .                    
        (14 402),  ( ) 
 (4 060),     (7 038 )   
 (540).          6 190,  
  .  70%    
 .       2001      21 790,  
   130 083 ,    5 077  
  .       
     1000  ,  
    2004 .

6.30        : (a)  ,
  ,       , 
   440  230; (b)  , 
  ,  (c)    ,  
 -    .    
      .        43
000    94%     .              
  10 079    400, 20 444   220, 13 210  
132  30 264   66.       
,  ,  (  , 2002 )  .

6.31   :      2001   21,3%,
     (4,7%);  
(3,7%)    (12,9%).    
  .

6.32   :  2001      16  ,
      97 171.     
 33,8%,      (31,4%), 
 (18,9%),   (11,4%),   (4,5%).

                   49

       
          
      .                              
  ,     ,     
 6.2.

          
    14,000


    12,000


    10,000


    8,000


    6,000


     4,000


     2,000




                                   


               2001  126 902 


               6.2:       2001 

6.33             6
          .

6.34    :                    1999-200  
    7,7%  .     40 000  
 239   2010 .     
2020   96 000 .  ,     
,        
 ,         
      
    .     12 800
      (1999-2004.)   
  .                   
  ,       
         .
        
  .      
«,   »     .  , 2003
           
    «,   ».

6.35    :     
        . 
        

                             50

.       ,  
   .      6.3.,  
     1998  2001 .



        1200
                                                  1104       1116


        1000
                                                        1023

                                                             802
         800



         600                                    630

                                           526

         400
                                     384                  321
                     195 196                         306
         200

                             157               153
                82
            0

              1992 1993 1994 1995 1996  1997 1998  1999 2000 2001



                                             

                     6.3:    

6.36   -        
         .
       10     
2002 .       ,   
     (   
).               
    (  )   ().

6.37   :         
.  2000      88,5   
 1,11       , 
195   2,4 .                 ,  121  (1,51 )
   ,  65,1  (0,81 ).  
    . ,     : 
      64   0,8  (   300)
 559   0,7  (    600). 
    ,  108 000   1,3  
.            , 
   183   2,3   .

6.38       :  
        
         

                                         51

.        ,  1,5  /
  ,   ,  700 
/    ,  /  
  3,56 .32

6.39        
 .           -,      
        
                                   
/,                  
. -,       
      
 (..   ),     (,    
 )     .                      -,
       
   (    ,   ), 
    -     
  ,    ,      
(  ) ,      .

D.  

6.40    800 000  , 
 148  (35,2%      ),    
 470   (2003.).      310  ,
 750   ,    2,5  , 
  27 000 .      
        
.            (19,%)  
 (14,5 ),  40%     
.               
 320.

6.41:     
  2003   19 478,   65%   , 33% 
,  2,4%  .       
    .  2002-2003     
  ( ),    1 450.
,          2002-2003      ( 
 30   )  73 961 .

6.42:     14,5 .                 11
     .     

32       : (a)   300 ; (b)
 ,  30%    ,  70%  ; (c)
  15%       20     6%
; (d)    70%;  (e)       1
/.        : (a) 1,35    , (b) 1,21 
  ,  (c) 1,0       .

                   52

     46,7%,     
(29,5%),   (10%),   (5,8%) 
 (8%).          
 .               
       .

6.43      :           
         30%.
       .  
 ,        ,
     .

6.44     :   
     ()    
  5009    5040.             
         
 ,      (). 
     1948,   
     .    
         462.
       
 5 959        
         
«  ».     8  .

6.45   :  1997     
 ,           ,                
   .       
     .   
    .      
 ,       8
 .                
 ,      
      ,  , ,
,   .      
    ,  36%                  
  .                
      .

6.46  :          2001-2002.
 3,22/   6 /,     
 ,   7,3  7,4 /. ,  
      , 
    5,6 /,    
      .

6.47   :   10-   1992-1993   2002-
2003       3,7%    
     ,  

               53

     .                             2000-2010 , ,
           
   6%.                   ,   
     2005-2006,      
  411     5 500  2009-2010.


              6.4:    
                        
                                                          
                                                 ,
                                   %     %               ,
                                                           

                   2002    51     28.1%    4.0%     72     12334

                   2003    54     25.3%    4.0%     77     13096

                   2004    58     24.6%    4.0%     82     13895

                   2005    63     23.9%    4.0%     87     14741

                   2006    67     23.3%    4.0%     93     15640

                   2007    72     22.6%    4.0%     99     16593

                   2008    78     22.0%    4.0%    105     17604

   2002-2008.             7.4%                     6.4%    6.1%

                   2009    83     21.1%    4.0%    111     18682

                   2010    89     20.3%    4.0%    118     19826

                   2011    96     19.5%    4.0%    125     21039

                   2012   103     18.7%    4.0%    133     22327

                   2013   110     18.0%    4.0%    141     23694

   2008-13.               7.2%                     6.1%    6.1%

                   2014   118     18.0%    4.0%    152     25446

                   2015   127     18.0%    4.0%    163     27328

                   2016   136     18.0%    4.0%    175     29349

                   2017   146     18.0%    4.0%    188     31520

                   2018   157     18.0%    4.0%    202     33851

   2013-18.               7.4%                     7.4%    7.4%

                   2019   168     18.0%    4.0%    216     35184

                   2020   180     18.0%    4.0%    230     38679

                   2021   192     18.0%    4.0%    246     41345

                   2022   205     18.0%    4.0%    263     44195

                   2023   220     18.0%    4.0%    281     47242

   2018-23.               6.9%                     6.9%    6.9%
:   ­     

6.48     2023       
   ,     
 5.8.   ,      
 51  220, ..     7,2%;     
12 344  2002   47 242 ,       6,6%.

6.49  ,      ,   
,          
   .   ,  
         


                               54

  ( )   .  
            
     .

E.   

6.50 P  ,      ,
  -       
 .       500 
-   ,      ,
           .

6.51 :                ,
    60    , 47,000 
  , 157      
.                 2002 
 215 ,   147      ,
  , 45  ­   23  ­  .
  ,   2002 ,   890 ., 
 584 .,   65.5%,   , 164 . 
18.5% - ,  142 .  16% -  .
    2.6     
  .      
1990  1998 ,   1999    .  , 
  ,    20%-25%,  ,
      ,   
 ,      10%  15%.

6.52  :    52.6%  
.      35%      
,    ­  .    
 ,     ,  
    .     (
 49%)  72  ,  «»  
   ,                       
   ,   
.         ,  51%  72 «»   
   ,   (   
)      «».     
 ,    ,  72 «» ,
     .                      
 72.5%    96.1%  ,   70%
,   .     
    ,  100% 
- ,      
 .

6.53 :        , 
,     ,     

                     55

,        
  ,     «»,   
   .                 «»   
        .  
   59 «» ,    
   ,     .
 «»     
 .  2002 ,      
 299 ..       38%       ,
 790 ..

6.54      (580 .),  «», 
    48.9%,   
 ­ 22%,    ­ 11.5%,   ­ 3.4% 
 ­ 14.2%.

6.55 :     , 
   ,       , 
       
   .                      
      ,
    ,  
   ,   
.

6.56          ,  
         .   ,
        ,  
      ,
   .                       
   ,     ,
 48.77 /..  1.63 /..  2002 .   
  ,  , 64.85 /..  2.16 /..
   ..  13  «»     
34.5   80.2 .

6.57 ,      
()   ..        1.45
    2003 .         
,  1.67 ,        2.78
.      ,     
    4.0 ­ 4.5   ..  2020 ,  
    , , 2.0 .  
      3.0 ,    
      
.

6.58   : ,       
  ,   , .   102% 

                   56

,    ,     
  ().                
,  ,        .
        , 
       ,  ,
     ,   .  
   2002   14.5    ($483
),   15%        .

6.59  :             
         «» 
«»     33           .
  , ,     ,  ,
    .   ,   ,   
,    , «»   
    ,    
  .

6.60   :                  , 
      . , 
  (  )      ,
    ,  ,  ,  ,  2.54%   
2020 .        
         ,
      .                      
       
.  , ,   ,  
.         
     - .

6.61  :      
,        .  2002 , 
    16.7 ..,   7.4    
    : , , ,
,   .            9.3  ­  , , ,
, , ,   .    
  (7.5 ..).     ,    
 $117.46   $175.30 ­  .   
      ,    
 ,         
   .   ,    
 40 ..  2020 .    «  »   
 .               ,      
     .




33         
 .      ,   ­   .

                     57

6.62  :       
   (,  ),     , 
      (,     
   ()  .    
     ,     
      . , 
          
 .         ,     
     ,    .     « 
»         , , 
   ,   , ,   
  .        ,
          
,         ,
,    .       
 500        
   ,  , ,    ,
  .            
oo      ()   4.0 /
..,          ,
     .           
        
  .




          58

         VII:  

7.01   -   (), 
       .  
 (    )    ,
      
       .
      ,   
       .   
(   )     
  ,      
     .    ( )
      ,   
  , , ,    
     .                 
         ,
         
.              
 -   ,  
    ,    .

A.      

7.02      
,          ,
     .             
      
    ,     
        , 
    .

7.03       
      .                 
    ,                  
 ,        ,
   .                ,
    ,    
 -   (),   
     .                  
  ,      , 
      34.
         
         
   ,      II ( 2.05
 2.07).



34   ,        
-    

              59

B.   ,     

7.04     - 
    ,   .             
   ,    
   ,      
 ,    .              ,
   ,     
      
,       
       . 
         
  .             
  :

   ·         
     ,        
      .
   ·     ,    
      .
   ·   ,     
       (    ) 
       ,          
      .         
        ,        ,  , 
     35,        
          (    
             ).   
        ()    .

      ,    , ,
    ,  :

   ·           
       (    )  
          , 
         ()          
     ,    .
   ·   1999       
             36
       «»   .      ,   ,
          37.



35      .
36 ,      ,     
37    ,   ,   
,       ,    
   .

             60

   ·          
            .
     ,          
             
        , :  
      ,      
     ,  ..
                        .
    ( ,  
 )       .

C.      

7.05  7.1.      
     .                                       , 
  :    , 
        
 13 .      20 .


      7. 1:    (   
              2004-2005 2006-2010 2011-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025   2004-2025

                324.0       972.1       0.0       0.0        0.0     1296.1
                 0.0        308.0      132.0      0.0        0.0     440.0
    
                 0.0        395.9      460.1     214.0       0.0     1070.0

                 0.0         0.0        0.0      922.3      162.8    1085.0
       :        324.0      1676.0      592.1     1136.3     162.8    3891.1
 
                 50.0       200.0       0.0       0.0        0.0     250.0
 ­   2           0.0        196.0       0.0       0.0        0.0     196.0
 ­  1            0.0         0.0      1067.0     873.0       0.0     1940.0
 ­  2            0.0        140.0      140.0      0.0        0.0     280.0
        :        50.0       536.0     1207.0     873.0       0.0     2666.0

                 25.0       285.0       0.0       0.0        0.0     310.0
 ­               0.0        296.0      74.0       0.0        0.0     370.0

 ­  ,  I  II     0.0         0.0      1453.0     1002.0      0.0     2455.0

       :         25.0       581.0     1527.0     1002.0      0.0     3135.0

                172.9       691.8      288.2      0.0        0.0     1153.0
 -              100.0       480.0      720.0      0.0        0.0     1300.0
 ­  
.                87.0       522.0      246.8      80.7      213.5    1150.0

                359.9      1693.8     1255.0      80.7      213.5    3603.0


                        61

       :       759.0  4486.8  4581.1  3091.9  376.3  13295.1


      
:

    ·  ,      , 
        .
    ·   ,     , 
        ,     .   , , 
            
       - ,   .
    ·      ,   ,  
        ,   .                                 
         ,  II    
        .         , ,  
       I ,     $150 
         - $50 ,    
          .

D.     - 

7.06         
        -
 ()   ,  
         
    ,  . ,
          ,
     ­   -.  
  «      
 » ( 7.1).   
 -  ()   
.  -       ,  
       .  
  ()       
      ; ()  
        
;  ()        
  .                    
        
      ,
         -
     .

     

7.07,    (,   
),      ,              
  .      

                    62

       , 
   ,   , ,
    ,    , 
        (-
 ),       
    ,    
  ,       .
,           
 ,     - , 
    .         ,  
     «» ,  
        
   . ,   
      ,    
,   ,      
  .      
           
      , 
   ,    ,     
,          . ,
, ,      
      
    .

    

7.08       
          1992  
       (). 
  ,    : ()  
    ,     
        ; ()   
   ,        
   ; ()  
        ;  () 
  .

7.09     (    )
       -.        
    ,   
,   .           
        , 
  ,          .   
        
 .

7.10    -  
(),          
     .   

          63

     ,   
   (  )      ( 
),         
     .                
«»       
   .                 «»
          
 .       
 ,      
. «»         
 .

7.11.     ,    ,
      ,  
   ,       
.   «»    ,   
       ,   
-    .                 
,     ,   
 .       ,  «»     
  .

    

7.12     ,            
      -
.        7.1,       
 ()      ,
  ,    .  
       ,  
-   .            ,  
        .
         
   .               
 ,         ( 
),          .         
        
        
    .




               64

  INTERIM
CG MEETING

  Copenhagen
  April 29, 2002




                              
                              


                       - - 
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                             / 



                         -  -  ,          
                                          
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                             -        
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 7. 1:                

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                               65

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 7. 2:       

7.17       ,    
     
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39          

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 7.2).


         7. 2:       

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                  69

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.     

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     .




           74

  INTERIM                 
CG MEETING

  Copenhagen        
 April 29, 2002


                                        :
                                         II
                           
                                     
                                      


                                    
                                           ?
               
                             
                            : 



                   
                            :
                           -

                        
                      :  II 
                         I

                   
                   


                     
                   1- 5     3 - 10     8 - 15 

                         


 8. 1

8.11              , -   
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-1   ,   , 
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  .

8.12                 
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8.13                  , 
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                                      75

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8.15       
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 )        
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;  ()      
    




           76