JULY 2014 91229 Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen Dennis (Overview), and is comprised of Tehmina Khan (High-income), Gerard Kambou (Industrial Production), Derek Chen (Business Sentiment), Eung Ju Kim (High-income, Finance and Overview), John Baffes (Commodities) and Damir Cosic (Commodities), Thanh Nguyen (Statistical Annex), and Kristina Cathrine Mercado (layout). This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group. The strengthening of economic activity is robust in the United States, but lags behind in the Euro Area. Not Overview withstanding the Q1 weakness, economic activity in high-income countries (where large negative output gaps per- sist), is expected to pick-up over the short-to-medium term as drags from fiscal consolidation and household and firm balance sheet adjustments wane, and private sector activity strengthens supported by improving sentiment and still loose monetary policy. In the United States Q2 this acceleration in economic activity is currently underway as there has been a pick-up in the pace of expansion of industrial production, consumer durables and capital good orders in Q2 relative to Q1. Further, compared to March levels, unemployment has declined to a post-crisis low and weekly unemployment claims are at an 8-year low. Forward looking business sentiment and consumer confidence indicators are also higher relative to where they were in Q2, thus pointing to continued robust real-side activity in Q3. Unlike the United States, the Euro Area—which recently exited a recession- continues to struggle for a broad-based recovery. Weighed down by weaknesses in France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Portugal, Euro Area industrial production rec- orded its first contraction in ten months in May (albeit mild), with consumer durables and capital good orders declining sharply. However, on a positive note, the unemployment rate continued its gradual downward slide. Further the Euro- pean Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicator trended up to its highest level since mid-2011, and the Euro Area purchasing Managers Index climbed to a 3-month high in July, suggesting that a cyclical recovery in activity is already ongoing, even if uneven across member states. Going forward, the recent monetary measures announced by the European Central Bank should be supportive of real-side activity by keeping borrowing costs down and improving credit flows to the private sector. These developments are consistent with our expectations for an acceleration in eco- nomic activity in high-income countries in H2 2014. Recent data releases paint a mixed picture for real-side activity in developing countries. Unlike high-income countries where there exist considerable slack, on average output gaps have closed in developing countries, alt- hough much heterogeneity exists across regions (e.g. significant negative output gaps exist in the Middle-East and Industrial production rebounds solidly in the United States, but Divergent industrial production trends across developing lags behind in the Euro Area countries between Q1 and Q2. (Industrial production (IP) volumes, q/q annualized growth rates ) 30.0 8.0 (Industrial production volumes, %ch 3m/3m Q2 Industrial production growth, q/q %ch 25.0 6.0 Acceleration in IP growth in Q2  20.0 4.0 15.0 2.0 Deceleration in IP growth in Q2  MYS 10.0 0.0 CHN MEX 5.0 -2.0 0.0 -4.0 Euro Area ‐20.0 ‐10.0 0.0 BGR 10.0 20.0 30.0 Q1 Industrial production United States ‐5.0 BRA growth, q/q %ch -6.0 ZAF ‐10.0 -8.0 KAZ ‐15.0 -10.0 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 ‐20.0 JULY 2014 North Africa, and Central and Eastern Europe). As a result, economic activity over the medium term is expected to be broadly in line with underlying potential. Most recent data releases however paints a mixed picture. Real side ac- tivity (proxied by industrial production) is rebounding in China (thanks to earlier stimulus measures), as well as in Malaysia, Vietnam, Mexico and India supported by stronger external demand (mainly strengthening U.S. imports). On the other hand, available data through May shows a weakening of industrial production in several middle income countries including Kazakhstan, Turkey, Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, Thailand, Bulgaria, and Indonesia. The driv- ers of this weakening are varied, however, in most cases slowing domestic demand triggered by earlier interest rate hikes and rising inflation, and subdued external demand from the Euro Area and China have been the main drivers. Further, in a number of cases unfavorable political developments (Thailand) and debilitating labor strikes have also contributed to the weakness in real side activity. Commodity prices remain broadly stable. Energy prices, as measured by the World Bank energy index, were up 1 percent in 2014Q2 due mainly to an increase in crude oil prices (up 2.6 percent for the quarter) with geopolitical risks (Iraq and Ukraine) re-emerging as the main driver of oil prices in the quarter. However, after peaking at $111/bbl in late June, prices reversed course to $105/bbl by early July as production was not disrupted in Iraq and Libya announced reopening of export ports that have been shut for nearly a year. The World Bank metals price index declined by 1 per- cent (q/q) in 2014Q2 due to the coming on stream of earlier investments and weaker demand from China. Yet, the recent weakening in metals prices has not been broad-based. The bulk of the decline is accounted for by the steep drop in prices of iron ore (down 15 percent q/q) while base metals increased by 2 percent (q/q). The steep drop in iron ore prices for the second quarter in a row reflects expansion of low cost capacity in Australia and Brazil and weaker im- ports from China. Among other base metals prices of zinc, tin, aluminum, nickel increased by 2.1, 2.2, 5.3, and 26 percent respectively whereas lead and copper prices declined 0.2 and 3.3 percent respectively. Agricultural prices moved very little and in a mixed manner in 2014Q2. The overall agricultural price index is up 0.9 percent for the quar- ter bolstered by a 11% increase in beverage prices (due to drought in Brazil). Grain prices were up by less than a 1 percent increase, mainly due to a decline in wheat yields. On the other hand edible oils and meals fell by some 3 per- cent (soybean production to projected to reach record highs). Gross capital flows to developing countries in June were robust. Not withstanding the ongoing U.S Fed taper- ing, monetary policy continues to be loose in high-income countries thus driving down bond yields. U.S ten-year treasuries are some 50 basis points lower than the start of the year. Further the recent monetary stimulus measures by the ECB is further driving down yields on Euro Area bonds. These lower yields, continue to incentivize carry trade to higher yielding assets, including those of developing countries. Indeed, gross capital flows to developing countries amounted to $63.1 billion in June, up sharply from $42.2 billion in the previous month and the $58.6 billion monthly average during January-March. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lending - a reflection of large loans to corporates in East Asia and the Latin American regions. Both bond and equity flows were strong as well, helped by a surge in Mexico’s equity issuance and large bond issuance by borrowers in Europe and Central Asia (including Bulgaria and Turkey). July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Activity in the US strengthened in Q2 relative to the weakness observed in Q1. Robust gains were High-income l reported for industrial production, capital good and durable consumer good orders in and unem- ployment also dipped to its lowest post-crisis level. However in the Euro Area, industrial output was tepid, underlining the fragile nature of the recovery there. However, consumer and business sentiment is on the rise and the recently announced ECB measures could help ease credit, all of which should support the ongoing recovery. Sentiment indicators in Japan weakened in July. US economy is rebounding Industrial Production  Q1 was derailed more than initially thought by weather conditions, with GDP contracting by 1% (q/q saar), which will weigh on outturns for the year as a whole.  However, as the cyclical recovery has firmed, activity has rebounded. With household wealth boosted by stock markets that have repeatedly tested new highs, and by an ongoing recovery in house prices, consumer demand is slowly strengthening. Retail spending rose at a 4.4% (3m/3m saar) pace in April.  This in turn is boosting firm output and hiring. Weekly unemployment claims have fallen to the lowest level since 2006. Both service and manufacturing PMI indica- tors continue to indicate a solid pace of growth, while regional Fed surveys showing a strong pick up in the second half of the year in business investment, which has so far lagged the recovery. Source: Datastream, World Bank Manufacturing PMIs A muted recovery in the Euro Area should be support- ed by the recent ECB stimulus  With inflation continuing to drift down and weakness in bank lending hampering the recovery underway, the ECB announced substantial policy easing, cutting its deposit rate to below zero, lowering its benchmark rate and announcing significant credit easing measures.  Despite growth remaining tepid, unemployment is begin- ning to inch down, and private consumption is also be- ginning to rise in the troubled periphery economies of Portugal and Spain.  The flash PMI composite output Index for the Euro Area increased to a 3-month high in July, suggesting a pick-up in real-side activity. Source: Markit Economics, World Bank Business sentiment weakens in Japan in July. Inflation  Given the sharp acceleration in growth to 5.9% in Q1 annualized ahead of the sales tax hike in April, a similar payback can be expected in Q2. Japanese consumer and business sentiment in July slid down from June lev- els. Nonetheless, on average, business sentiment was higher in Q2 than it was in Q1. Further, the recently re- leased government preliminary blueprint of reforms on corporate income taxes, female labor force participation and government pension fund reforms, if implemented along with other needed structural reforms could help boost growth over the medium term. Source: Datastream, World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Led by the United States, G3 equities have been buoyant in recent months. Lower yields in longer- High-income ll dated U.S. and German government bonds led to the flattening of the yield curve. The yield spread between the U.S. and German 10-year bonds has reached its widest gap since June 1999. Despite trouble at second largest bank, financial markets remain calm thanks to adequate capital buffers, injection of pri- vate funds and a generally low risk aversion environment.  Led by the United States, G3 equities have been buoyant in recent months. Reflecting the G –3 stock markets easing of financial market tensions, low volatility, ample liquidity and expectations of growth prospects, 180 Index, January 2010 = 100 U.S stock markets have steadily increased through July from the dip observed earlier in the year. Japa- 160 nese stocks have also rebounded solidly in July sup- 140 ported by better than expected real-side activity fol- lowing the introduction of the sales tax hike. Europe- 120 an equities benefitted from the announced ECB 100 measures in June, however in recent weeks they have underperformed U.S and Japan equities, hurt 80 by concerns of a fragile recovery. 60 DAX (Germany) S&P 500 (United States) TOPIX (Japan)  Lower yields in longer-dated U.S. and German 40 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 government bonds led to the flattening of the yield curve. Yields on long-dated U.S. and German Source: Bloomberg, World Bank government securities—especially on 10-year and 30- year bonds—have fallen sharply since the end of last Changes in U.S. and German bond yields year, while shorter-dated bond yields remained broad- Yield (percent) ly stable. The dynamic led to a significant flattening of 3.5 the yield curve. However, robust employment data US and rising inflation expectation in the U.S. have driven 3 German policy-sensitive short-term yields sharply higher in recent weeks. Compare with the U.S. yield move- 2.5 ment, German bond yields have continued to move lower, with an acceleration since mid-June amid the 2 European Central Bank’s unprecedented stimulus measures and a disappointing economic picture in the 1.5 Euro Area. As a result of perceived divergence in growth and inflation prospects in the Euro Area and 1 the United States, the yield spread between the U.S. and German 10-year bonds has reached its widest 0.5 gap since June 1999. Mar‐13 May‐13 Jul‐13 Sep‐13 Nov‐13 Jan‐14 Mar‐14 May‐14 Jul‐14  Markets calm despite trouble at the second larg- Source: Bloomberg, World Bank est bank in Portugal. Banco Espiroto Santo, the only large Portuguese bank that did not receive capi- Yields on 10-year government bonds tal injection during the country’s 3 years bailout pro- Yield (percent) gram, found itself exposed to escalating default risks 12 of its parent holding company since early July. Market 11 repercussions were initially significant in Portugal, 10 with Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads increasing and the Portuguese stock-market losing value since 9 the start of July. However, contagion effects were 8 Portugal limited, as reflected in stable CDS, bond spreads and 7 bank stock valuation in other euro-area economies. 6 Spain Fears of spiraling troubles were contained by the fact 5 that the bank’s financial distress was unrelated to its 4 specific operations, that capital buffers were available and fresh private money eventually injected (on July 3 Italy 23). The lack of contagion also reflected an overall 2 climate of low risk aversion and continued search for Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 yields, benefiting riskier asset classes. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 The strong rebound in capital flows to developing countries that resumed in March has continued High-income l through June. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lending. Con- sistent with the easing of global financial market conditions, spreads on emerging market bonds, including those from Sub-Saharan Africa have declined. Nonetheless, countries in the region facing high debt ratios and weak macro imbalances remain vulnerable to the future tightening of monetary conditions in high- income economies. Five developing country central banks increased policy rates in July, outweighing rate cuts in other countries for the third month this year.  Gross capital flows to developing countries in June were robust. Gross capital flows to developing countries Gross capital flows were strong in June amounted to $63.1 billion in June, up sharply from $42.2 billion in the previous month and the $58.6 billion month- ly average during January-March. The strong pick-up in June was largely due to a surge in syndicated bank lend- ing - a reflection of large loans to corporates in East Asia and the Latin American regions. Both bond and equity flows were strong as well, helped by a surge in Mexico’s equity issuance and large bond issuance by borrowers in Europe and Central Asia (including Bulgaria and Tur- key). Notably, euro-denominated developing-country bond issuances are up sharply this year (by more than six times compared to a year ago) as countries take ad- vantage of lower borrowing costs in Europe.  Consistent with the easing of global financial market conditions, spreads on emerging market bonds, in- Sub-Saharan Africa Eurobond spreads decline cluding those from Sub-Saharan Africa, have de- clined. Indeed since mid-February spreads on Sub- Saharan African sovereign bonds have declined be- tween 70 and 140 basis points. The favorable environ- ment has supported recent successful Eurobond issu- ances from both Kenya ($2bn in June) and Zambia ($500m in April). Cote D’Ivoire, Ghana and Senegal are also poised to tap into the international bond market. Nonetheless, with the strengthening of the U.S. econo- my, monetary policy tightening is projected to commence in 2015. This will raise borrowing costs in international capital markets. While debt-to-GDP ratios remain moder- ate for Sub-Saharan Africa as a whole, some economies have much higher debt ratios and face macroeconomic imbalances which could make them more vulnerable when financial market conditions tighten. Source: World Bank and Bloomberg.  Five developing country central banks increased policy rates in July, outweighing rate cuts in other More developing countries tighten policy in July countries for the third month this year. Among these Number of policy rate changes Rate hikes five countries, three (South Africa, Ghana and Ukraine) across developing countries Rate cuts acted in response to continued price pressures linked to Net changes past currency depreciations, while policy rates were 17 hiked in Egypt to anchor inflation expectations in ad- 12 vance of an expected rise in fuel costs in August (due to a cut in fuel subsidies), and in Malaysia to remove policy 7 accommodation after signs of a more self-sustained re- 2 covery. In contrast, rate cuts were decided this month in Peru, Turkey and Hungary, reflecting weakening activity -3 and more favorable global financing conditions. Central banks in Peru and especially in Turkey lowered rates -8 despite above target. The room for monetary policy ac- -13 commodation is expected to gradually diminish for most developing countries as the U.S. Federal Reserve -18 moves closer to its own tightening cycle. Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Source: World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Reflecting a cyclical downturn in activity, global industrial production (IP) grew at the slowest Industrial Activity pace for the year in May, with a deceleration across key high-income countries (Japan and Euro Area) and key developing regions (Latin America and Caribbean, East Asia (excluding China) and Sub-Saharan Africa). On a positive note, however, a nascent cyclical recovery was observed in a number of economies (United States, China and India). The strengthening of business sentiment in June (see next page) suggest a near-term rebound in global industrial production. Industrial production (IP) growth was weak in May. Global IP growth  Global IP decelerated to an annualized 2.4 percent pace in May, weighed down by weak growth in both key high-income and developing countries.  High-income country IP growth slowed to 1.5 percent in May, weighed down by a mild contractions in in- dustrial production growth in both Japan and the Euro Area. This weakness was however offset by robust growth in the United States. Given the co-cyclicality of business cycles among high-income countries, the pick-up in activity in the United States bodes well for economic activity elsewhere in the high-income world.  Developing countries’ IP growth stabilized at 3.6 per- cent in May (3.7 percent in April). The acceleration in IP growth in China and India was however counterbal- anced by a further slowdown in growth from the rest of developing countries (IP grew 0.1 percent, slowing Source: World Bank from a 1.6 percent growth in April). Regional IP growth: EAP, ECA, LAC China’s IP growth strengthened further in June.  China’s IP growth accelerated to 7.7 percent in June, supported by a rebound in its exports and earlier stim- ulus measures. Excluding China, IP contracted in the rest of East Asia and the Pacific, mainly reflecting contracting output in Thailand.  In developing Europe and Central Asia, IP growth also weakened in May. This weak growth reflects below trend growth in Turkey and the CIS region. Industrial output growth in the Central and Eastern Europe sub-region was above trend in May.  In Latin America and Caribbean, industrial production remained steady (less than one percent growth). Weakness in Argentina and Brazil (due to weak do- Source: World Bank mestic demand) was offset by strengthening output in Mexico, whose exports to the US is rebounding. Regional IP growth: MENA, SAS, SSA IP growth rebounds in the Middle East and North Africa, but contracted in South Asia (excluding In- dia), and Sub-Saharan Africa.  For a third successive month, IP growth in the MENA continued in May thanks to a solid rebound in Egypt, reflecting improvements in political landscape.  In South Asia, India’s IP growth accelerated thanks to a recovery in exports, however for the rest the region industrial production growth decelerated.  In Sub-Saharan Africa, industrial production contract- ed sharply in South Africa as labor strikes led to a sharp contraction in mining production and manufac- turing output continued to fall, bringing IP growth in the region sharply down. Source: World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Although, industrial production weakened in May, global business sentiment strengthened in June, suggest- Business Sentiment ing a cyclical recovery in industrial production is likely to take hold in the coming months. Among high- income economies, sentiment is strongest in the United States, but has also picked up in Japan and the Euro Area. Sentiment among developing regions however remains heterogeneous. Notwithstanding the weakening of industrial produc- tion, global business sentiment improved. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)  For a third consecutive month, global manufacturing sentiment improved in June, this contrast with the weaker real-side data (industrial production) observed through May. Since the global purchasing manager’s index (measure of business sentiment) has a forward looking aspect to it, it suggest that there is likely to be a near-term cyclical recovery in global production.  Indeed, in the United States, where business senti- ment has rebounded strongly, the rebound in real- side activity is already evident in the pick-up in indus- trial production, imports, capital good orders and em- ployment numbers.  Further, in Japan, following the weakening of busi- ness sentiment in the aftermath of the recent sales tax, business sentiment has also picked up in the past Source: World Bank and Markit. two months, crossing the expansion threshold in June. Similarly initial sentiment readings for the Euro PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 1 Area point to a pick-up in business sentiment. Overall, sentiment improved for developing countries.  In June, business sentiment improved for developing countries as an aggregate, exceeding the 50-mark signaling expanding activity for the first time in six months.  Yet significant differences exist among developing countries, largely reflecting the differences in their domestic demand conditions and in some cases ex- ogenous factors. Performance remains mixed across developing coun- tries.  Supported by earlier stimulus measures as well as a Source: World Bank and Markit pick-up in its exports, business sentiment in China expanded for the first time this year in June, notwith- PMI Indexes—Emerging Economies 2 standing the ongoing correction in the country’s prop- erty market.  Other developing economies to register a pick-up in sentiment include Egypt (thanks to an improving politi- cal situation) and India (supported by external de- mand).  Sentiment remained stable, but signaling expansion in Mexico (supported by increase in exports to the US), Vietnam, Hungary and Indonesia.  On the other hand, a slowdown in domestic demand, triggered in some cases by interest rate hikes, sharp depreciations and rising inflation weakened business sentiment in Turkey, Brazil and South Africa (also labor strikes). Source: World Bank and Markit July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Imports data suggest that global trade was subdued in May, continuing a trend of weakness ob- International Trade l served in April. Nonetheless, this obscures signs of a nascent pick-up in a number of key mar- kets. Among developing countries, domestic demand adjustments related to policy tightening and currency depreciation and on-going political tensions in some developing economies con- tributed to the slow down in their import demand. Imports data suggest that global trade contracted for a second month running. Global Import Volumes  The post-crisis recovery in global trade has, in gen- eral been very subdued, however, until April 2014 it had managed to sustain ten months of continued expansion. However after a cyclical uptick which peaked in February global trade volumes has decel- erated, contracting in both April and May.  Whether the anticipated global recovery has begun or not however remains in question as due to data deficiencies, aggregating data using imports points to a continued contraction, whereas using the ex- ports data shows that a cyclical recovery in global trade has already commenced.  Nonetheless, even taking only the weaker imports data into account, it the aggregate picture hides elements of a nascent recovery that is occurring in Source: Haver, World Bank some countries most noticeably the United States. To the extent that a pick-up in high-income econom- Regional Import Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC ic activity is expected in H2 2014 this bodes well for near-term global trade prospects, including from developing countries. Import data shows a contraction in imports across most developing regions  Quarterly import growth contracted in the East Asia region, weighed down by China, as well as in Thai- land and Indonesia. Similarly in the Latin America region, weak import demand in Brazil, the largest economy in the region where a domestic adjustment process is underway weighed down on the region’s imports.  Import demand eased in developing Europe and Cen- tral Asia region reflecting earlier currency devalua- tions in some of its economies and import disruptions Source: Datastream, World Bank related to the Ukraine situation.  However, in South Asia, import demand is robust Regional Import Volumes: MENA, SAS, SSA thanks to a rebound in India’s imports Data lags behind in Sub Saharan Africa and the Mid- dle East.  In South Africa, import demand continued to show double digit contraction through May reflecting weaker currency, higher interest rates, and depressed eco- nomic activity.  In the Middle East and North Africa, data remains lag- ging, however in Egypt, where more recent data is avail- able a recovery in imports was observed for May, thanks to an improving political situation. Source: Datastream, World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Developing country exports data suggest a nascent cyclical recovery in exports has begun to take International Trade ll hold, led by China. Export performance across regions has however diverged due to varying re- sons. With a strengthening of high-income country activity expected to occur in the H2 2014, this should provide further support to a pick-up in developing country exports. For developing economies undergoing domestic demand slowdowns, tailwinds from rising exports should help partially mitigate the weakness in their domestic economies. Nascent recovery commences for developing coun- try exports Global Export Volumes  Following the recovery among some key trading partners (in particular U.S imports), developing country exports, which had been subdued since March, showed signs of a pick-up in activity, led by China, India and Brazil.  Given the significance of South-South trade, the pick-up in exports in these large economies bodes well for trade from other developing countries, even if the recovery has not taken hold in all developing regions. Export performance in developing regions shows some divergence.  Excluding China, exports from East Asia has also Source: Haver, World Bank picked up although still well below trend. Besides, weak global demand, domestic factors, such as politi- cal tensions in Thailand have contributed to the weak Regional Export Volumes: EAP, ECA, LAC recovery. Nonetheless, with exports of manufacturing goods likely to rebound the most in a recovery, East Asian economies are likely to witness the strongest rebound in a cyclical recovery, due to the intensive- ness of manufactured goods in their exports.  Exports contracted in Europe and Central Asia. This reflects a number of contributory factors: weakness in the Euro Area real-side activity weighing down ex- ports from the Central and Eastern Europe region, weakness in Russia weighing exports elsewhere in the region, and the ongoing decline in metal and min- eral prices.  Exports from Latin America and the Caribbean show signs of a rebound led by Mexico reflecting stronger demand from the US; weaker currencies and a pick- up in activity in China supporting exports from Brazil Source: Datastream, World Bank and Argentina. Export volumes for selected economies Exports are projected to expand supported by firm- ing demand in high-income countries.  Despite a bumpy start of the year, export growth should continue to be supported by rising demand from high income economies and an economic re- bound in China (stimulus supported).  If the strengthening of high-income country activity is to persist, this should provide further support to a pick -up in developing country exports, especially in those countries where export growth continues to lag be- hind. Source: Datastream, World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Crude oil prices spiked in June as insurgents gained ground in Iraq, but later reversed course as Commodities l it became clear that southern oil fields would remain unaffected. Prices of industrial metals de- clined in June dragged down by falling iron ore prices. Precious metals did not change much dur- ing June as geopolitical risks and improving economic conditions, particularly in the US, offset each other. Crude oil prices spiked in June as insurgents gained ground in Iraq, but reversed course as it became Crude Oil Prices clear that southern oil fields would not be affected.  Prices averaged $108/bbl, up 2.5% (m/m) in on secu- rity concerns stemming from Iraq. After peaking at $111/bbl in late June, prices reversed course to $103/ bbl by early July as production was not disrupted in Iraq and Libya reopened ports that have been shut for nearly a year.  Global oil supplies were unchanged at 92.6 mb/d in June, but 1mb/d higher than year ago. Non-OPEC growth (1.7 mb/d y/y) more than compensated for declines in OPEC output (-0.8 mb/d y/y).  The gap between Brent and WTI narrowed to US$6.4 bbl in May on sharply lower stocks at Cushing, OK (delivery point for WTI) which are now at a staggering 25 mb below year-ago levels. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Metals Prices Metal prices declined in June dragged down by fall- ing iron ore prices.  Metals prices fell 0.6% (m/m) in June, down five of the last six months. The declines were led by iron ore (down 8% m/m) on oversupply of low cost ore from Australia and Brazil. Aluminum was up 5% (m/m) as production cuts are taking an effect.  However, prices started to climb mid-June and have continued into early July on improving macroeconom- ic data from China.  Global stocks of metals at major exchanges have declined (down 3% m/m in June), and are still elevat- ed by historical standards. Copper (-70% y/y), zinc, lead and tin stocks are down (-30% y/y), while alumi- num stocks are flat and nickel is up (+52% y/y). Source: Bloomberg, World Bank Precious metals prices were flat in June as geopoliti- Precious Metals Prices cal risks cancelled out better macro data.  Precious metals have been on the decline since early 2012, and prices reversed their previous two month gains by falling 1% (m/m) on improving macroeco- nomic conditions in advanced economies and benign inflationary environment.  Reduced demand for safe-heaven investments and expectations of changes in US monetary policy have triggered outflows out of exchange-traded funds, lead- ing to price declines.  In June, holdings of gold by exchange traded funds (ETFs) fell 1.6% (m/m), a four-year low. This followed two straight months of gains, the first increases since 2012. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Weather concerns (often linked to likely El Niño) induced price increases in some grains earlier in Commodities ll the year but recently prices have weakened as supplies for the upcoming, 2014/15, season are deemed adequate to keep stocks at reasonable levels. Agricultural prices are expected to decline slightly in 2015. The U.S. Department of Agriculture kept largely unchanged the 2014/15 global agricultural commodity outlook for the 2014/15 season. In its July global assessment for the 2014/15 crop year, USDA maintained the improved supply condi- Stock-to-use ratios tions for maize and rice—less so for wheat. 35%  Maize and rice are set for a record production at 980 and 479 million tons and stock-to-use (S/U) ratios of 30% 19.5 and 22.7% for 2014/15. The outlook for wheat remains relatively tight, with production expected to decline by 1.3%(y/y). However, the S/U ratio is ex- 25% Wheat  pected to increase marginally due to lower feed use. Declines in wheat output are expected to take place in 20% Rice the United States, Australia and Canada due to lower yields. Increases in Argentina, Mexico, and Paraguay. Lower maize production in Ukraine is expected to be 15% offset by increases in Argentina and Mexico. Maize  The rice market continues to be well-supplied. In addi- 10% tion to improved production prospects, stocks are at 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 high levels, especially in Thailand and India. Source: US Department of Agriculture (July 2014) Grain prices eased following USDA’s July outlook assessment for 2014/15. Maize and wheat prices  Wheat prices declined more than 8 percent in June while the losses have been extended well into July following the USDA’s assessment. Yet, price risks are on the upside in view of the El Nino threat and the fact that the market is not as well supplied as other grains.  Maize prices declined 7% in June and dropped even further throughout the first half of July following USDA’s 2014/25 assessment. Overall, the global maize market is well-supplied.  Rice prices gained moderately in June, up 2 percent since May. Yet, the rice market is well supplied as the Thai government stocks are weighing heavily on the market. However, if 2014 becomes an El Nino year, rice will be exposed to upside price risks. Source: World Bank Coffee (Arabica) prices eased but still elevated.  Arabica prices declined 8% in July but they are still , Coffee prices up 45% since higher than a year ago. Robusta prices did not change much. Dry and hot weather conditions in Brazil—world’s largest coffee supplier—have taken a toll on Arabica output. The global coffee market is expected to incur a 1.5 million-bag deficit instead of an expected surplus.  Separately, the oil and meal price index declined 3% in July, led by a declines in palm oil prices and the soybean complex, about 4% each. Exception is groundnut oil prices, which lost almost 10 percent on June. The weakening in soybean prices since March has been aided by record plantings in the US and, to a lesser extent, expected good crop in South Ameri- ca. Source: World Bank July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.1 Global industrial production growth Table A.1 Global industrial production growth (constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent (constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are in percent change over change over previous month a/) Weigh ts Av erage 2013 2014 2014 previous month a/) Weights Average 2013 2014 2013 2014 2000 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n 2000 1999-09 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr World 1 0 0 .0 4 .7 3 .0 2 .7 3 .5 4 .3 4 .7 3 .4 0 .3 0 .2 0 .2 0 .0 .. World 100.0 2.2 5.2 3.0 2.6 6.2 2.6 5.3 3.6 0.4 0.8 0.1 -0.2 1.0 High -in come cou n tries 7 7 .2 2 .7 0 .8 0 .6 2 .7 3 .3 3 .7 3 .1 0 .2 0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .3 .. High-income countries 77.2 0.4 3.5 0.9 0.5 7.4 0.9 4.5 3.5 0.4 1.0 0.1 -0.2 1.0 Industrial countries 72.7 2.1 0.4 0.5 2.6 2.6 4.2 3.9 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.4 .. Industrial countries 72.7 0.2 2.7 0.4 0.5 8.0 -0.5 4.8 4.8 0.5 1.4 -0.1 -0.2 1.1 United States 25.1 3.3 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.5 4.9 3.9 0.9 0.9 0.0 0.5 0.2 United States 25.1 0.3 3.4 3.8 2.9 3.2 1.4 6.0 4.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.4 Japan 17.3 -2.7 0.1 -0.6 6.1 6.7 7.6 10.7 -1.7 0.6 -2.8 0.6 .. Japan Euro Area 17.3 22.9 -1.0 -2.7 3.3 -2.6 -0.8 0.7 -1.0 2.6 15.0 0.4-0.8 2.2 8.7 10.4 0.7 0.9 -0.5 0.2 3.4 1.0-2.4 -1.11.4 -1.0.. Euro Area United Kingdom 22.94.1 0.0 -1.2 4.2 -2.4 -2.9 -0.4 -1.0 2.511.2 2.7 -2.5 1.8 1.6 2.8 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.9 2.2 0.3 -0.7 4.1.. -0.4 -2.1 United Kingdom Other high income 4.1 4.5 -1.0 2.1 1.8 0.4 -1.6 0.5 -0.7 2.6 8.2 2.6 0.4 4.2 3.3 3.96.0 2.6 .. 2.1 .. .. 0.5 -1.8 .. 2.4.. Other high income Hong Kong (China) 4.5 0.2 0.2 .. 2.7 .. 0.4 .. 0.5 .. 8.0 -0.5 .. 4.8 .. 4.8 .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .... Hong Kong Singapore (China) 0.2 0.4 .. 8.0 .. 0.2 .. 1.6 .. 29.4 .. .. -5.2 16.1 .. 2.3 .. .. .. 6.8 5.8 -4.0 -5.7 .... .. .. Singapore Taiwan (China) 0.41.1 5.6 4.5 7.6 -0.3 0.40.4 1.6 -4.225.9 6.18.6 8.0 9.0 1.4 -1.9 0.6 -3.5 2.5 -2.9 2.6 1.3 2.2 0.9 -0.72.6 Taiwan (China) Dev elopin g cou n tries 1.1 2 2 .8 3.8 7 .9 4.8 6 .3 -0.2 5 .7 0.4 4 .6 -5.2 5 .9 6.9 6 .4 9.3 1.2 3 .8 0 .4 0 .2 0 .6 0 .4 2.3.. 2.0 -1.4 2.4 -3.7 Developing countries Eas t As ia an d Pacific 22.8 6.5 8 .7 1 1 .6 8.0 9 .2 6.3 9 .0 5.5 4.6 5.0 4 .9 1 1 .2 1 0 .6 6.3 3.9 4 .2 0.3 00.5 0 .7 .5 00.3 .6 -0.1 0 .5 1.0 0 .9 East Asia and Pacific China 8.76.3 10.513.7 11.4 10.0 9.19.7 8.9 6.3 4.5 12.3 11.1 11.111.6 5.0 3.6 0.8 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.9 China Indonesia 6.3 0.9 13.7 4.0 13.74.1 10.0 6.0 9.7 -3.8 6.0 12.3 2.8 11.4 7.5 8.85.0 0.6 -0.2 1.2 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -1.70.7 0.3.. Indonesia Thailand 0.90.6 3.4 -8.5 4.0 2.1 4.1 -3.1 6.0 -11.5-4.4 -7.91.2 -4.0 10.3 -4.9 7.5 1.3 -2.8 -0.4 0.3 1.2 0.7 -0.11.1 -0.2.. Thailand Malaysia 0.60.5 8.6 .. -8.7 .. 2.5 .. -3.3 -20.6 .. -5.9 15.3 .. .. -13.7 .. 2.2 .. -2.5 .. 0.1 .. -6.7 .. 2.9.. EuMalaysia rope an d Cen tral As ia 0.53 .2 16.13 .1 5.7 9 .1 5.3 2 .3 4.2 2 .014.3 7 .2 8.9 3 .2 8.3 6 -2.2 .4 .2 0-1.3 -0 -0.4 .2 0 2.5.3 -0 -2.4 .2 2.2.. Europe Federation Russian and Central Asia 3.21.0 .. 14.9 5.0 3.3 8.30.5 2.2 2.9 1.4 2.3 1.9 3.5 7.0 -2.911.2 0.5 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.9-0.7 Russian Federation Turkey 1.00.5 5.9 9.6 8.3 2.5 5.33.4 0.5 5.1 3.8 4.77.2 3.2 9.7 5.8 -9.6 -3.9 -0.3 -0.4 -3.9 0.9 3.7 -1.00.5 0.9.. Turkey Poland 0.50.6 .. 7.1 1.4 2.52.4 3.4 9.1 4.2 8.84.9 3.4 9.6 4.0 2.5 6.3 0.1 0.3 -0.9 1.1 0.7-0.3 -0.3 -1.6 1.0 0.4 Poland Czech Republic 0.60.2 6.3 5.9 6.9 -0.8 1.30.1 2.3 1.2 6.110.79.4 7.9 0.9 5.0 3.8 -2.9 0.4 1.5 5.2 0.9-0.9 -0.5 -1.5 3.0.. Czech L atin Republic an d Caribbean America 0.26 .2 3.6 2 .6 -0 7.7.1 -0.6 1 .0 0.7 8 .6 4.9-2 .2 23.6 -4 .3-2.2 010.5.0 0 -0.7 .1 -0 .4 3.6 0 0.6 .1 -0 0.4 .3 3.1.. Latin America and Caribbean Brazil 6.21.8 1.8 0.5 2.5 -2.7 -0.12.2 1.1 7.7 11.9 -1.4 -4.0 -7.0-5.3 -0.7 1.2 -2.2 -0.5 0.1 2.7 -0.50.4 -2.5-0.6 2.0 .. Mexico Brazil 1.81.7 3.5 - 2.6 -2.6 0.4 -0.6 2.9 -2.815.9 1.9 -5.8 0.4 -9.3 2.8 2.4 -4.5 0.2 0.3 5.2 0.5 0.8 -4.70.1 2.8.. Argentina Mexico 1.70.8 1.1 6.7 3.5 -1.2 2.6 -0.3 -0.6 2.9-3.0 -6.51.9 -8.3 0.5 -1.2 3.1 -0.4 -1.6 -0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 -0.20.2 0.6.. Colombia Argentina 0.80.3 2.9 4.9 6.7 -0.3 -1.1 -1.2 -0.2 20.0 6.6 -0.7 -6.8 -0.3-8.0 1.8 -3.6 1.1 -0.5 -2.0 2.7 3.0-1.6 -1.1.. 1.7.. Middle Colombia Eas t an d North Africa 0.3 0 .2 4.9 1 .9 -11.9 6 .4 -0.3-8 .0 -1.2 -0 .420.0 -3 2 .5 -1 5 .8 -0.7 -0.3 1 3 .81.8 1.5 -1 .6 -0 .5 0.3 0 1.1 .7 -2.0 .. 3.0.. Saudi Middle Arabia East and North Africa 1.91.2 2.3 12.4 -9.3 5.7 5.7 -1.5-7.8 12.6 2.0 19.7 -13.5 1.8 -31.4 -5.3 7.3 -0.2 2.0 -1.7 3.3 -3.10.0 -0.3.. 0.9 .. Iran Saudi Arabia 1.20.4 0.0 0.2 12.4 -20.2 5.7 -10.0 -1.5 -1.912.6 2.1 19.7 -1.3 -5.3 8.9 1.8 0.1 2.7 0.7 -0.2 -1.7.. 0.0.. -0.5 -0.6 Egypt Iran 0.40.4 -0.3-6.7 0.2 4.9 -20.2-7.7-10.0 -25.5-1.9 -40.22.1 2.8 -1.3 55.7 8.9 0.0 2.2 -5.6 1.3 2.5 0.1 0.7 5.9 -0.6.. Algeria Egypt 0.4 .. -2.5 .. -6.7 1.4 4.9 -0.5 -7.7 0.4 -23.8-12.3-41.0 1.8 2.8 -11.6 57.2 3.7 -0.1 -1.9 9.5 -0.5 -4.1 1.0.. 2.6.. Sou th As ia Algeria 1 .6 4.2 .. 5 .4 0.2 1 .1 -0.2 1 .5 -0.4 .. 7.7 .. -8.8 .. 8.2 -24.8.. .. -2.0 0.7 .. -11.5.. 5.6 .. 0.1.. India South Asia 1.61.3 7.3 4.8 5.4 0.5 1.30.5 1.5 -8.0 .. .. 8.8 -2.9 .. .. 4.2 .. 1.3 0.5 .. -1.8 .. 0.9.. 2.1 .. Pakistan India 1.30.2 7.5 2.7 4.8 1.8 0.76.0 0.5 0.3 -10.5 9.59.9 5.5 -4.8 -9.0 4.7 0.0 -1.1 -1.0 1.9 2.4-1.9 -0.71.1 2.1.. Bangladesh Pakistan 0.20.1 17.15.8 9.3 1.88.1 6.2 -1.5-0.721.98.9 3.4 2.7 1.2 6.0 -13.3 -1.4 6.3 -2.5-5.5 -2.4 .. -1.2 .. .... Sri Lanka Bangladesh 0.10.0 7.5 8.1 17.0 -0.3 9.31.1 9.7 -2.516.1 0.9 -0.4 18.2 3.6 2.0 .. 1.8 -0.2 -0.2.. .... .. .... .. b-Sah SuSri Lanka aran Africa 0.01 .2 .3 8.1 3 .. 3 .5 -0.3 0 .9 1.0 1 1 .1-3.0-7 .2 1.21 0 .4 17.9 -5 .9 .. 2.3 -2-1.1 -2 .5 .0 3 1.6.5 -3 .3 .. .... South Africa Africa Sub-Saharan 1.20.4 0.9 2.8 3.4 2.3 3.51.3 0.9 12.4 9.2 -8.7 -7.6 10.6 9.9 -5.4 -3.7 0.7 -2.0 -2.5 0.6 -2.23.7 -1.2-3.3 2.8 .. Nigeria South Africa 0.40.3 0.8 .. 2.8 .. 2.3 .. 1.3 10.4 .. .. -9.1 10.1 .. .. -3.1 .. 0.8 .. -2.1 0.8 .. -1.1 .. 3.1.. Memo:Nigeria 0.3 - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. OECD Memo: 75.9 2.3 0.6 0.6 2.3 2.7 3.9 3.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0.4 .. Developing OECD excl. China 16.6 0.2 75.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 0.51.2 0.5 2.2 7.4 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 4.5 1.9 4.8 0.1 0.5 -0.7 1.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 1.1.. Developing oil exporters 2.9 1.3 2.9 0.2 5.3 -5.6 -2.3 3.7 0.7 -0.6 0.6 -0.7 .. Developing excl. China 16.6 2.9 3.2 2.8 1.3 3.1 -2.4 0.3 2.4 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 -1.2 1.8 Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 9.9 7.2 7.2 4.4 9.0 8.5 3.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.9 Developing oil exporters 2.9 - 1.8 3.0 0.3 5.9 -6.1 0.9 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.5 0.5 Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. Dev. non-oil exporters 19.9 8.7 10.0 7.2 7.0 4.2 8.1 7.6 4.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 a In general, series refer Asian high tech exporters to industrial production .. excluding .. construction (e.g...manufacturing, mining and .. .. utilitites). a Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing, mining and utilitites). if the country is a major oil producer. Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer. July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change) Average 2013 2014 2014 1999-09 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Real GDP High-income countries 2.1 3.1 2.0 1.5 1.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 -0.3 .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.5 2.5 -0.3 .. .. .. .. .. United States 2.1 2.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 2.5 4.1 2.6 -2.9 .. .. .. .. .. Japan 0.5 4.7 -0.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 1.3 0.3 6.7 .. .. .. .. .. Euro Area 1.6 2.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. United Kingdom 2.0 1.7 1.1 0.0 0.0 2.7 3.4 2.6 3.3 .. .. .. .. .. Other high income 4.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 .. .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) .. 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 .. .. .. .. .. Singapore 5.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 .. .. .. .. .. Taiwan (China) 3.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 .. .. .. .. .. Real merchandise imports High-income countries 4.1 15.0 8.4 5.1 1.4 -7.8 33.7 -6.3 11.8 -5.3 -2.7 -3.3 3.1 .. Industrial countries 3.4 10.5 4.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.7 -2.1 -0.1 2.1 -2.3 .. United States 3.0 14.9 4.1 2.9 0.7 5.1 5.9 5.2 -5.3 -1.4 0.1 5.7 -3.5 .. Japan 2.3 10.5 4.3 4.2 0.2 11.2 -7.5 8.5 27.7 -4.3 8.4 -9.0 -2.7 .. Euro Area 10.4 3.2 -3.4 -0.5 2.5 4.7 -4.8 4.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 .. .. United Kingdom 3.1 10.8 0.5 3.0 0.4 12.0 0.5 -7.9 -2.8 -2.3 3.0 0.1 1.5 .. Other high income 3.4 10.5 4.0 0.1 0.8 4.2 3.4 3.9 3.7 -7.5 -4.5 -7.3 7.5 .. Hong Kong (China) 3.0 17.4 3.9 0.7 2.6 -0.9 4.3 14.8 -15.4 -0.6 4.6 -0.4 -0.5 .. Singapore 2.3 17.9 3.6 3.8 1.0 7.2 16.0 -6.9 13.2 4.1 0.6 0.1 -5.2 -2.9 Taiwan (China) 29.2 -2.7 -2.0 4.9 -15.5 2.5 20.8 3.2 1.2 5.7 -3.6 -11.3 17.8 Import Prices High-income countries 2.6 5.2 11.4 -1.6 -1.3 -3.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 .. Industrial countries 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.6 4.0 1.6 -0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.9 .. United States 2.4 6.9 10.9 0.3 -1.1 -5.6 1.7 -2.1 2.2 0.9 -0.2 -0.5 0.4 0.6 Japan 4.7 14.2 18.2 -0.5 -6.3 -17.4 10.8 7.2 -12.5 -1.1 -1.3 -0.7 -0.1 1.9 Euro Area 5.2 15.6 -2.8 0.6 -9.1 3.3 10.9 3.1 0.5 0.2 -1.6 .. .. United Kingdom 1.6 4.4 13.1 -1.5 -0.9 -8.2 6.6 12.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.8 0.7 0.7 -4.0 Other high income 3.2 5.7 12.8 -2.4 -1.0 -6.6 4.0 1.6 -0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 .. Hong Kong (China) 2.4 6.3 7.8 3.7 0.9 -0.6 2.6 4.8 1.9 0.8 -0.7 0.0 -0.2 -1.6 Singapore 4.7 7.4 13.5 0.3 -2.9 -7.9 1.6 4.9 -9.6 0.5 -1.4 1.2 1.4 0.2 Taiwan (China) 12.2 15.3 -1.9 -4.9 -13.0 -1.3 4.3 -4.3 -0.1 -1.4 0.1 1.0 0.2 Real effective exchange rates a Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United States -0.9 -3.9 -4.9 3.0 1.1 0.5 1.4 1.6 1.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 0.0 .. Japan -0.2 1.2 1.7 -1.2 -20.1 -21.3 -22.1 -19.9 -10.2 1.5 -0.6 1.1 0.9 .. United Kingdom -1.4 3.6 1.5 5.2 -1.0 -1.9 -2.6 0.5 7.0 0.3 -0.1 0.7 1.6 .. Canada 1.8 10.2 2.0 -0.3 -3.3 -1.6 -4.5 -5.8 -8.8 -0.9 -0.6 0.9 0.1 .. Hong Kong (China) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Korea, Rep. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Singapore -0.7 3.4 5.5 4.6 2.7 2.9 1.0 1.2 -0.7 0.1 -0.7 0.4 0.1 .. Taiwan (China) .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Switzerland 0.1 5.8 9.8 -3.1 -1.9 -2.8 -1.3 -0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 -0.5 0.2 .. a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.3 Global credit conditions Table A.3 Global credit conditions (percent unless otherwise indicated a/) (percent unless otherwise indicated a/) A v erage 2013 2014 2014 A v erage 2013 2014 2013 2014 1999-08 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb Mar A pr May Ju n 1999-08 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Dec Jan Feb Mar A pr May P olic y Rates P olic y Rates High - in c ome c ou n tries High - in c ome c ou n tries Industrial countries Industrial countries United States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25 United States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 1.10 Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1.25 Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Ten year bon d Ten year bon d United States 4.70 3.24 3.19 2.76 1.78 0.71 0.73 0.77 0.64 0.64 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.55 2.59 United States 4.70 3.24 3.20 2.77 1.78 0.70 0.72 0.76 0.64 0.63 2.90 2.85 2.70 2.72 2.69 2.57 Japan 1.49 1.35 1.18 1.12 0.85 2.76 2.87 3.20 3.21 3.06 0.60 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.59 Japan 1.49 1.34 1.17 1.12 0.85 2.76 2.87 3.20 3.21 3.06 0.67 0.68 0.60 0.60 0.62 0.60 Euro Area .. 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.05 2.01 1.92 2.61 2.79 2.78 3.09 2.89 2.61 2.55 2.28 Euro Area .. 4.03 3.79 4.31 3.05 2.02 1.93 2.74 2.79 2.78 3.31 3.21 3.09 2.89 2.61 .. United Kingdom 4.77 3.60 3.53 3.00 1.87 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.74 2.72 2.67 2.62 2.70 United Kingdom 4.77 3.66 3.58 3.06 1.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.93 2.87 2.75 2.72 2.68 2.63 Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,b c Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) , c Dev elopin g c ou n tries .. 2 9 6 3 2 3 3 2 9 3 0 5 269 297 331 324 325 338 315 293 285 .. Dev elopin g c ou n tries .. 296 323 329 305 269 297 331 324 325 321 324 338 315 293 285 Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China 82 77 193 218 162 146 167 173 162 163 169 159 151 148 .. China 82 77 193 218 162 146 167 173 162 163 152 160 169 159 151 148 Indonesia .. 218 225 228 260 197 230 317 298 298 307 270 267 243 .. Indonesia .. 218 225 228 260 197 230 317 298 298 305 318 307 270 267 243 Phillippines .. 337 367 425 429 443 441 411 422 431 431 438 442 451 .. Phillippines .. 206 200 177 153 138 150 173 153 143 142 146 150 133 130 123 Malaysia 129 140 145 152 134 112 133 151 141 119 122 100 96 101 .. Malaysia 129 140 145 152 134 112 133 151 141 119 139 136 122 100 96 101 Eu rope Eu ropean dd an C en tral C en AA tral s ia s ia .. .. .. .... .... .... .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation Russian Federation 262 262 229 581 259 621 255 688 206 711 177 728 203 722 225 693 217 703 255 697 705 217 219 241 683 687 304 694 302 312.. Turkey Turkey 404 404 221 366 260 387 281 433 239 449 195 468 208 467 275 427 277 433 308 430 432 307 291 314 435 454 303 471 256 224.. Poland Poland 99 99 156 156 210 210 192 192 135 135 121 121 133 133 148 148 137 137 119 119 121 130 120 121 116 107 116 106 107 106.. Czech Czech Republic Republic .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. L atin L atinA meric A meric aaan dd an CCaribbean aribbean 522 53 242 5 43 5533 43 9475 53 7490 5 8 7 3 0 3 6 3 54 13 06 63 14 536631 5 36792 568 360 3 57621 3 58892 65 3 04 4 62 3 156 .. 319 Brazil Brazil 551 551 202 798 195 867 183 992 209 967 162 1019 197 998 237 921 240 932 251 936 934 245 255 258 951 972 239 993 224 214.. Mexico Mexico 206 206 187 460 186 501 188 570 189 561 167 583 183 578 204 540 201 546 193 557 558 196 192 196 566 575 188 587 178 173.. Argentina Argentina 2920 2920 690 122 687 142 134 989 1067 1391127 129 1200 127 1092 135 850 165 925 161 156 970 804 927 169 183 880 187 788 782.. Colombia Colombia 370 370 189 719 168 739 148 764 158 791 129 781 149 787 178 794 177 803 182 812 812 188 177 182 815 817 177 820 162 155.. Middle Middle Eas t an Eas dd t an NorthAA North fric aa fric .. .. 3 4 6 346 369 455 43 3 6 9 4 5 59 4 3 9 4 1 5 4 4 53 16 64 44 34 444343 4 43134 414 4 2 416 416 42 1 4 015 3 4095 2 3 39826 .. 386 Saudi SaudiArabia Arabia .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. Iran Iran .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. Egypt Egypt .. 173.. 173 371 371 502 502 565 565 509 509 623 623 622 622 506 506 403 403 381 427 403 381 369 369 369 369.. .. .. Algeria Algeria .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. d Sou Sou As thth Aia s ia d .. .. .. .... .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India India .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. Pakistan Pakistan .. 624.. 624 922 1067 922 1067 734 734 903 903 753 753 666 666 612 612 530 530 466 466 578 546 507 461 461.. 507 .. .. Bangladesh Bangladesh .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. Sri Lanka Sri Lanka .. 369.. 358 358 369 414 414 406 406 352 352 383 383 441 441 449 449 398 398 348 348 442 404 351 339 339.. 351 .. .. Su b-b- Su Sah Saharan aran AA fric aa fric .. .. .. .... .... .... .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. 2 7207 2 24311 21 2 396 207.. .. South South Africa Africa 172 167 191 172 195 205 206 227 235 226 190 233 213 231 272 217 265 222 258 224 262 .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. Nigeria Nigeria .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. e e Gros Gross in flow s in flowss Dev Developin elopingg c ou n tries c ou n tries .. .. 7 4 40 44 73 44 0538 45 88 55 83 7 .2 1 1 5 51 3579 .2 52 .4 11 .4 93 .3 11233 .9 1 7.3 1347 .7 1 4 0 .7 0.9 4 5 .5 24 5 1.3 .2 2 615.2 65 .1 6 .0 4.1 34 6 5.0 .. .8 3 5 .8 East Asia East and Asia Pacific and Pacific .. .. 154 154 123 123 163 163 211 211 54.2 54.2 69.3 69.3 36.7 36.7 50.5 50.5 49.2 49.2 18.6 8.4 19.6 21.2 27.4 8.4 21.2 18.1 27.4 18.1 .. Europe and Central Europe and Central Asia Asia .. .. 44 44 58 58 66 66 82 82 22.3 22.3 25.8 25.810.8 10.8 23.5 23.514.4 14.4 5.0 2.9 2.9 4.9 6.6 6.68.0 3.7 8.0 3.7 .. Latin America Latin Americaand Carribean and Carribean .. .. 156 156 146 146 150 150 178 178 38.4 38.4 42.8 42.856.8 56.8 39.6 39.657.0 57.0 14.1 4.7 26.9 25.4 19.3 4.7 25.4 11.4 11.4 19.3 .. Middle East and North Middle East and NorthAfrica Africa .. .. 19 197 77 79 9 0.3 0.3 6.4 6.4 0.5 0.5 1.9 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.5 0.8 0.2 2.5 .. 0.2 South Asia South Asia .. .. 56 56 44 44 42 42 39 39 14.1 14.1 10.8 10.8 3.1 3.1 11.3 11.3 16.5 16.5 4.4 4.6 2.9 9.0 4.6 4.2 9.0 1.1 4.2 .. 1.1 Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. 18 18 25 25 30 30 39 39 7.8 7.8 4.2 4.2 15.4 15.4 11.2 11.2 2.7 2.7 2.7 0.7 0.1 2.0 0.7 2.6 2.0 1.3 2.6 .. 1.3 a/Monthly a/Monthly figures are figures simple are simpleaverages averagesof daily of figures. daily Quarterly figures. and Quarterly and Annualfigures Annual figuresare simpleaverages aresimple averages of monthly figures. b/Average b/Average values values for for Spreads Spreads are are for for the the period period 1996-2003. 1996-2003. c/Aggregates c/Aggregates asas defined defined byby JPJP Morgan. Morgan. d/East d/East Asia Asia andand Pacific Pacific including including South South Asian Asian countries. countries. e/In e/In ofof billions billions USUS dollars. dollars. July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.4 Commodity price indices TableUS (current A.4 Commodity do llar price index,index unless o indices therwise indicated; a/) (current US do llar index,index unless o therwise indicated; a/) Av erage 2 0 13 2 0 14 2 0 14 2 0 10 Av erage 2 0 11 2 0 12 2 0 13 Q2 2 0 13 Q3 Q4 2 0 14 Q1 F eb M ar 2 0 14 A pr M ay J un E ne rgy 210 10 00.0 2 1 0 11 2 28.7 10 12 27.6 210 13 27.4 1 Q2 23.1 1 Q3 30.2 1 Q4 27.7 1 Q1 28.3 J 1 an 30.9 F 1 eb 27.4 M 1 ar 28.5 A 1 pr M 29.0 131a.4 y ne al, ECo rgy A ustralia 100.0 122.7 28.7 1 97.4 27.6 185.4 27.4 187.0 23.1 178.1 30.2 182.9 27.7 177.9 28.3 177.1 26.6 174.1 30.9 173.6 27.4 174.5 28.4 1 72.2 28.9 Crude Co al, A il, average oustralia 100.0 1131.6 1 22.7 32.9 97.4 131 .7 85.4 125.7 87.0 135.9 78.1 132.2 82.9 131.1 77.9 132.6 82.5 131 .6 77.1 132.7 74.1 133.7 73.6 137.1 74.5 Crude ogas Natural , Euro pe il, average 100.0 126.9 131 .6 138.4 32.9 1 142.2 31.7 149.2 25.7 138.7 35.9 1 138.1 32.2 135.8 131.1 136.3 29.2 1 131 .3 32.6 1 129.5 31.6 1 123.1 1 32.7 11 7.9 33.7 Natural gas , Euro pe 100.0 126.9 1 38.4 142.2 149.2 138.7 1 38.1 135.8 139.8 136.3 1 31.3 129.5 1 23.1 N o n- e ne rgy 100.0 119.8 1 09.5 101 .7 101 .7 99.2 98.6 99.2 99.7 99.9 99.9 99.7 98.1 NA n- e ne ogric ultrgy ure 100.0 119.8 21.6 1109.5 1 4.5 1 1 01.7 06.3 1 1 01.7 07.3 199.2 04.3 198.6 03.6 199.2 05.5 197.8 06.1 199.8 08.1 100.0 07.2 1 100.0 07.1 1 99.9 05.0 A gric ult ure 100.0 121 .6 1 14.5 106.3 107.3 104.3 103.6 105.5 102.3 1 06.1 108.2 107.3 1 07.5 B e v e ra ge s 100.0 116.0 92.6 83.3 83.3 82.2 83.1 94.5 94.6 103.2 106.1 105.1 1 02.9 B e v e raCogecosa 100.0 116.0 95.1 92.6 76.3 83.3 77.8 83.3 73.6 82.2 78.8 83.1 88.4 94.5 94.2 85.8 95.5 94.6 97.1 103.2 97.4 1 06.1 1 96.7 05.1 01 .3 co a arabica Co ffee, Co 1 100.0 00.0 1 95.1 95.2 38.3 76.3 77.8 71 .2 73.6 74.0 78.8 69.0 88.4 64.1 94.2 88.5 90.0 88.6 195.5 09.3 1197.1 4.0 197.4 09.3 196.7 01 .0 Co ffee, Co ffee, ro arabica busta 1 100.0 00.0 1 138.3 1 38.7 95.2 30.6 1171.2 9.6 174.0 23.5 169.0 1 7.3 1 64.1 06.4 188.5 22.3 167.7 21 .8 188.6 33.8 1 109.3 34.0 1 1 14.0 1 30.8 109.3 25.6 Co ffee, ro busta 100.0 138.7 1 30.6 1 19.6 123.5 1 17.3 106.4 122.3 111.4 1 21.8 133.8 134.0 1 30.8 Food 100.0 122.5 124.5 115.6 11 7.4 11 3.2 111.2 111.9 113.1 11 3.8 112.1 11 2.6 109.6 F o oFda t s a nd o ils 1 100.0 00.0 1 122.5 20.5 1 124.5 26.1 1 11 15.6 5.9 1 1117.4 2.7 1 1113.2 3.8 11 111.2 9.2 1111.9 20.1 1 108.7 23.1 11 113.1 9.4 111 14.0 7.1 1 1112.5 7.4 1 1113.2 3.9 FP t s ao a alm il o ils nd 1 100.0 00.0 1 120.5 24.9 1 1126.1 0.9 115.9 95.1 1 12.7 94.4 1 1 913.8 .8 1 19.2 99.6 1 1 20.1 01 .2 1 1 17.9 00.8 1 1 23.1 06.7 1119.4 01 .1 117.1 99.2 1 17.4 95.2 P alm So o il meal ybean 1 100.0 00.0 1 124.9 05.2 1 1 10.9 38.5 195.1 44.1 194.4 39.6 1 91.8 45.8 199.6 50.6 1 1 01.2 53.7 196.0 57.0 1 100.8 54.3 1 106.7 49.6 1101 52.9.1 199.2 46.1 So ybean meal 100.0 105.2 138.5 144.1 139.6 145.8 150.6 153.7 149.8 157.0 154.3 149.6 152.9 So ybeans 100.0 120.2 131 .5 119.7 11 2.3 11 7.2 123.4 122.8 131 .4 111.2 11 4.7 11 5.9 11 4.5 So ybeans 100.0 120.2 1 31.5 119.7 1 12.3 1 17.2 123.4 122.8 125.8 1 31.4 11 1.2 1 14.7 1 15.9 G ra ins 100.0 138.2 141 .3 128.2 138.3 121 .6 109.5 110.1 110.3 11 4.5 113.1 11 2.9 106.7 G ra ins 100.0 138.2 1 41.3 128.2 138.3 1 21.6 109.5 110.1 105.5 1 10.3 1 14.5 113.1 1 12.9 M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 156.7 130.1 107.3 11 2.9 112.6 11 9.6 11 9.6 11 6.9 108.9 M aize 100.0 156.9 160.5 139.5 156.7 1 30.1 107.3 1 12.9 106.5 1 12.6 1 19.6 1 19.6 1 16.9 Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 11 5.2 103.5 11 0.8 97.6 90.5 90.7 93.9 86.3 80.8 79.4 81 .2 Rice, Thailand, 5% 100.0 111.1 1 15.2 103.5 1 10.8 97.6 90.5 90.7 92.0 93.9 86.3 80.8 79.4 Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 141 .5 140.1 139.7 140.3 136.8 137.8 132.9 130.7 144.7 145.3 149.7 137.1 Wheat, US, HRW 100.0 1 41.5 1 40.1 139.7 140.3 136.8 137.8 132.9 123.2 130.7 144.7 145.3 149.7 O t he r f o o d 100.0 111 .1 107.1 103.9 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.7 102.4 105.9 104.5 106.0 106.4 O t he r f o o d 100.0 111 .1 107.1 103.9 104.7 104.7 102.4 102.8 99.5 102.5 106.6 106.0 108.0 B ananas, US B ananas, US 1 1 00.0 00.0 1 1 11 1 1 .5 .5 1 1 1 1 3.3 3.3 1 1 06.4 06.4 1 1 04.5 04.5 1 1 07.5 07.5 1 1 06.6 06.6 1 1 09.2 09.2 1 1 09.9 06.6 1 111 09.9 .1 107.1 111.1 1 1 05.4 07.1 1 1 06.7 05.4 Sugar, wo Sugar, wo rld rld 1 100.0 00.0 1 122.1 22.1 1 101 01.2 .2 83.1 83.1 82.2 82.2 80.3 80.3 82.8 82.8 78.5 78.5 78.0 73.4 84.1 78.0 82.7 84.1 85.8 82.7 85.3 85.8 Ra R wm aw maatte ria ls e ria ls 1 100.0 00.0 1 122.0 22.0 1 101 01.3 .3 95.4 95.4 94.9 94.9 94.1 94.1 95.4 95.4 95.6 95.6 95.1 95.1 96.5 95.1 96.0 96.5 94.8 95.3 94.9 94.8 Co tto n ("A " Co tto n ("A " Index) Index) 1 100.0 00.0 1 145.8 45.8 86.1 86.1 87.3 87.3 89.5 89.5 88.7 88.7 84.2 84.2 90.7 90.7 90.8 87.8 93.6 90.8 91.0 93.6 89.5 91.0 87.8 89.5 Rubber, Singapo Rubber, Singapo re re 1 100.0 00.0 1 132.0 32.0 92.4 92.4 76.5 76.5 79.5 79.5 70.9 70.9 69.2 69.2 61 61.6 .6 58.7 63.7 62.4 58.7 60.1 62.4 56.7 60.1 57.1 56.7 Sawnwo o d, Sawnwo o M alaysia d, M alaysia 1 100.0 00.0 1 1110.7 0.7 1 103.3 03.3 1 100.5 00.5 98.7 98.7 99.7 99.7 1 104.1 04.1 1 106.3 06.3 1 106.4 05.8 1 106.8 06.4 1 107.6 06.8 1 108.2 07.6 1 108.6 08.2 F e rt ilize rs 100.0 142.6 137.6 113.7 119.8 108.2 97.9 102.5 104.2 02.4 100.8 04.2 195.0 00.8 96.3 95.0 96.2 96.3 Triple superpho sphate 100.0 140.9 121.0 100.0 111.6 95.8 78.9 95.8 101.5 84.3 101.6 .5 197.2 01.6 95.6 97.2 97.2 95.6 M e t a ls a nd m ine ra ls 100.0 113.5 96.1 90.8 88.2 87.8 88.5 85.7 86.2 88.1 83.0 86.2 85.5 83.0 84.8 85.5 84.4 84.8 A luminum 100.0 110.5 93.1 85.0 84.5 82.0 81.3 78.7 78.0 79.5 78.5 78.0 83.3 78.5 80.6 83.3 84.6 80.6 Co pper 100.0 117.2 105.7 97.3 95.0 94.0 95.1 93.3 94.9 96.8 88.3 94.9 88.6 88.3 91.5 88.6 90.5 91.5 Go ld 100.0 128.1 136.3 115.3 115.5 108.5 103.8 105.6 101.6 06.1 106.1 09.1 1 1 09.1 06.0 106.0 05.2 105.2 04.4 Nickel 100.0 105.1 80.5 68.9 68.6 64.0 63.8 67.2 64.7 65.1 65.1 71.9 71.9 79.7 79.7 89.0 89.0 85.4 M emo : C rude C rude O O ilil ( US $ ( US $)) 79.0 1 79.0 104.0 1 04.0 105.0 05.0 1 104.1 04.1 99.3 1 99.3 107.4 1 07.4 1 04.5 1 04.5 103.7 03.7 1 1 02.1 04.8 1 104.8 04.0 1 104.0 04.9 1 104.9 05.7 1 105.7 08.4 a/ The a/ The Wo rld B Wo rld ank primary B ank primary co mmo dity dity price co mmo indices are price indices co mputed are co mputed fro m1 fro m 1987-89 expo 987-89 expo rt rt values in values in US do US do llars fo r llars fo lo w- r lo and middle-inco middle-inco me w- and eco no me eco no mies, rebased to mies, rebased 1 to 1990. 990. b/ Energy b/ Energy and and go ld prices go ld are no prices are t included included in no t the index. in the index. July 17, 2014 Table A.5 Developing countries' merchandise export growth (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates except JULY 2014 monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 Table A. 5 Developing countries' merchandise export grow th (US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; -09 20 1 9 9 9percent 1 1 2 0seasonally change; 1 2 2 0 1 3adjusted Q2annualQ3 Q4 rates except Q1 Feb Mar Apr May Ju n Table Ex port v alu Developing A.5 es countries' merchandise export growth monthly figures, which are m/m change /a) A v erag e seasonally adjusted annual 2013 2014 2014 (US Dev dollar elopin values g couunless n triesotherwise indicated;13percent .0 2 1 change; .7 4 .1 2 .6 - 1 3 .7 except rates 1 3 .0 2 .7 - 9 .1 - 1 2 .9 3 .8 4 .7 0 .0 .. monthly figures, which are m/m change 199 9-09 2011 2012 2013 /a) Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Feb M ar A pr M ay Ju n Eas t As ia an d P acific Ex po rt v alu es 1 4 .2 A 1v9erage .7 6 .2 6 .2 - 1 8 .9 2 0 3 - 1 .2 2 4 .0 2 -100 4 1.9 - 2 0 .7 1 .7 8 .4 2 0 5 4 - 0 .2 - 1 .6 China 1999- 09 20 19.5 11 201 20.2 8.12 2018.23 Q2 -22.8 Q3 1.0 Q4 -14.6 24.1 Q1 Feb -27.0 Mar 11.4 A pr 7.5 May0.6 Ju n -1.6 D ev elo pin g c o u n tries 1 3 .0 2 1 .7 4 .1 2 .6 - 1 3 .7 3 .0 1 2 .7 - 9 .1 -1 2 .9 3 .8 4 .7 0 .0 .. Ex po Eas t A anes v alu rts ia Indonesia d P ac ific 9.0 1 9 1 4 .2 28.8 .7 6-6.2 .2 6-4.0 .2 -1 -12.9 8 .9 -21.8 - 1 .2 2 53.2 -14.0 4 .0 - 1 0 .9 - 2 01.0 .7 -2.4 8 .4 -2.8 5 .7 - -3.1 0 .2 - 1 .6.. Dev elo pin g c o u n tries Thailand China 215.0 110.4 3 .0 20.2 19.5 1 .7 43.1 .1 8.1 2 .6 -0.2 8.2 - 1 3 .7 -13.1 -22.8 3 .0 1 -5.2 1.0 2 .7 -14.6 21.8 24.1 9 .1 --4.6 1-1.8 2 .9 --27.0 3 .8 4 -4.2 11.4 .7 1.7 7.5 0 .0 -2.6 0.6 -1.6.. .. Eas t A s ia an d P ac ific Indonesia 4 .2 28.8 19.0 1 9 .7 6 .2 -6.2 6 .2 -4.0 - 1 8 .9 -21.8 -12.9 - 1 .2 2 4 .0 - 53.2 1 0 .9 -14.0 -20 .7 1.0 8 .4 -2.8 -2.4 5 .7 --3.1 0 .2 - 1 .6 .. China Thailand 19.5 20.2 10.4 8.1 8.2 -22.8 -5.21.0 24.1 -14.6 -27.0 11.4 7.5 -2.60.6 -1.6 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 1 3 .9 15.0 2 5 .6 3.1 0 .7 -0.2 0 .9 -13.1 - 7 .6 1 5 .2 4 .6 -4.6 21.8 6 .8 -1.8 0 .7 -4.2 0 .1 - 1 1.7 .6 - 0 .9 .. .. Indonesia 9.0 28.8 -6.2 -4.0 -12.9 -21.8 53.2 -14.0 1.0 -2.4 -2.8 -3.1 .. Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.1 26.0 -5.5 -14.5 -17.3 21.6 0.9 -3.0 .. EuThailand ro pe an d C en tral A s ia 1310.4 .9 2 515.0 .6 0 3.1 .7 0-0.2 .9 --13.1 7 .6 1 5-5.2 .2 21.8 4 .6 -4.6 6 .8 -1.8 0 .7 0 .1 - 11.7 -4.2 .6 - -2.6 0 .9 .. .. Turkey 14.0 18.4 12.8 0.0 -2.5 9.0 -3.7 37.1 3.9 3.5 -7.3 0.3 .. Russian Federation 15.8 31.1 2.6 -0.9 -9.1 26.0 -5.5 -14.5 -17.3 21.6 0.9 -3.0 .. EuPoland ro pe an d C en tral A s ia 116.6 222.4 3 .9 18.4 5 .6 -3.1 0 .7 10.2 0 .9 - -5.2 7 .6 117.5 5 .2 49.6 19.1 .6 37.16 .8 -4.7 0 .7 05.3 .1 --7.31.9 1 .6 --3.1 0 .9 .. .. Turkey 14.0 12.8 0.0 -2.5 9.0 -3.7 3.9 3.5 0.3 .. Russian Federation Poland 15.8 22.4 16.6 31.1 2.6 -3.1 -0.9 10.2 -9.1 17.5 -5.2 26.0 -5.5 9.6 -14.5 19.1 -17.3 -4.7 21.6 5.3 0.9 -3.1 1.9 -3.0 .. .. atin America an d Caribbean LTurkey 8 .3 2 14.0 3 .2 18.4 1 .6 12.8 0 .7 0.0 5 .7 -2.5 2 .0 9.0 2 .9 - 1 -3.7 1 .8 37.1 0 .7 3.9 -3 .7 -7.3 3.5 3 .9 0 .4 0.3 .. .. Brazil Poland L atin A meric a an d C arib b ean 811.5 16.6 .3 2 327.0 22.4 .2 -3.1 1-4.7 .6 10.2 0-0.5 .7 5 5.8 -5.2 .7 -8.4 17.5 2 .0 24.0 29.6 .9 - 1-23.3 19.1 1 .8 -4.5 -4.7 0 .7 -3-5.4 5.3 .7 7.4 .9 -4.9 31.9 -3.1 0 .4 1.7.. .. Mexico Brazil 11.57.0 17.4 -4.7 27.0 5.9 -0.5 2.3 3.7 5.8 10.7 -8.4 -2.0 -23.3 24.0 -0.5 5.3 -4.5 -0.7 7.4 -5.4 2.1 -4.91.3 1.7 .. L atin A meric a an d C aribbean Argentina Mexico 88.0 7.0.3 3 .2 223.3 17.4 1 .6 -4.5 5.9 .7 01.8 2.3 5 .7 30.5 3.7 2 .0 -16.3 10.7 2 .9 - -23.5 -18.6 -2.0 1 1 .8 -0.5 0 .7 3.3 5.3 - 3 .7 3 -9.2 -0.7 .9 0 6.3 2.1 .4 0.5 1.3 .. .. Brazil Argentina 11.5 8.0 27.0 -4.5 23.3 -4.7 -0.5 1.8 30.55.8 -16.3-8.4 24.0 -18.6 -23.3 -23.5 -4.5 3.3 -5.4 6.3 -9.2 7.4 -4.90.5 1.7.. Mexico Eas t an d North Africa Middle 187.0 .1 117.4 6 .2 5.9 5 .9 2.3.. 3.7.. 10.7 .. -2.0 .. -0.5.. 5.3.. -0.7 .. 2.1.. 1.3 .. .. .. Argentina Saudi Eas M iddle t an d No rth A fric a Arabia 18 8.0 .1 18.3 1623.3 .2 42.3 10.85-4.5 .9 1.8 .. .. 30.5.... -16.3 .... -18.6.... -23.5.... 3.3 .... -9.2 .... 6.3.. .. 0.5 .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia 18.3 42.3 10.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Middle Eas t an d No rth A fric a Iran 1 8 .1 20.7 5 .9 1 6 .2 -20.2 29.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 21.4 15.1 -3.4 -3.3 -24.7 -9.5 -3.5 5.4 -5.9 5.0 -6.0 9.5 .. Egypt Saudi Arabia 21.4 18.3 42.3 -3.4 15.1 10.8 -3.3.. -24.7.. -9.5.. -3.5 .. 5.4 .. -5.9 .. 5.0 .. -6.0 .. 9.5 .. .. Iran 20.7 29.9 -20.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. So u thth Sou Egypt As iaia As 114 4 .9 21.4.9 331 1 .6 15.1.6 - 1 --3.4 1 .7.7 5 5 .9.9 -3.3 -- 2 200 -24.7 .7 55 .7 22 .3 .3 -9.5 --11.1 .1 -3.5 --117 7 .8 .8 5.4 3.7 --3 .7 -5.9 -1 - 1 .5 -6.0 .5 5.0 6 .2 2 6.2 2 .9 - .9 9.5 -3 3 .9 .9.. India India 16.5 16.5 33.4 -1.9 33.4 -1.9 5.6 5.6 -24.0 53.1 -24.0 53.1 -1.1 -1.1 -20.9 -20.9 -4.5 -4.5 -1.7 8.8 -1.7 8.8 2.3 2.3 -3.9 -3.9 So Pakistan Pakistan u th A s ia 47.1 17.1.9 318.9 18.9 - -2.6 1 .6 -2.61 .7 52.5 2.5.9 09.4 - 2 9.4.7 5 55.6 55.6 2 .3 -25.9 -25.9 - 1 .1 -17 8.5 8.5.8 -38.1 8.1 .7 - -5.8 -5.8 -15.0 1 .5 -15.0 2 .9 --4.5 6 .2 11.6 3 .9 Bangladesh Bangladesh India 16.5-- 26.7 -1.9 26.7 33.4 3.5 12.2 3.5 12.2 5.6 -16.8 54.4 -16.8 -24.0 54.4 53.1 8.7 8.7 -1.1 -6.7 -6.7 -20.9 -3.3 -3.3 -4.5 -2.5 8.8 -2.5 -1.7 .. 2.3 .. .. -3.9 .. Pakistan 7.1 18.9 -2.6 2.5 9.4 55.6 -25.9 8.5 8.1 -5.8 -15.0 11.6 -4.5 Su b- Bangladesh Su Sah b- aran Sah aranA fric a Africa 1122 .9 - .9 224 .7 26.7 4 .7 22 .9.9 - - 3.5 112 .0 12.2 2 .0 - 88 -16.8 - .1 -- .1 1177.4 54.4 .4 --2258.7 5.1 .1 .. -6.7 .. .. -3.3.. -2.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa South Africa 9.2 9.2 19.3 19.3 -7.9 -7.9 -4.1 -4.1 -5.7 -11.1 -5.7 -11.1 6.1 6.1 -4.5 -4.5 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -2.4 -2.4 .. .. Nigeria Su b- Sah aran A fric a 18.9 1 2 .9 44.4 2 4 .7 16.82 .9 - -35.5 1 2 .0 -27.4 - 8 .1 - -35.5 1 7 .4 -53.9 - 2 5 .1 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Nigeria 18.9 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. South Africa 9.2 19.3 -7.9 -4.1 -5.7 -11.1 6.1 -4.5 -5.1 -8.7 6.4 -2.4 .. Ex po rt pric es b,cb,c Nigeria 18.9 44.4 16.8 -35.5 -27.4 -35.5 -53.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. port Ex elo D ev prices pin g c o u n tries 4.6 12.9 0.4 -1.4 -5.1 -0.7 3.0 -7.2 -2.4 -1.6 1.5 0.2 .. Dev elopin Eas t A s ia ang dcou P ac tries nific 4.6 3 .4 1412.9 .4 0.4 0 2 .0 -1.4 .6 2-5.1 .2 -1-0.7 .9 53.0 .3 -7-7.2 .7 -1-2.4 .6 - 2-1.6 .7 01.5 .7 0 0.2 .5 0 .2 .. Eas t As ia an d P acific China 3 .4 3.5 1 4 .4 15.2 2 .0 4.5 0 .6 1.9 2 .2 -1.7 5.9 - 1 .9 5 .3 -10.9 8.5 - 7 .7 - 1 .6 - -0.5 2 .7 0 -4.6 .7 0 0.8 .5 0 0.6 .2 0.1 China Indonesia 5.13.5 15.2 17.0 4.5 -4.4 -6.8 1.9 5.9 -8.0 -9.7 -1.7 8.5 -10.9 1.5 -4.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.9 -4.6 -0.2 0.6 -0.7 0.8 -0.3 0.1 Thailand Indonesia 2.05.1 10.9 17.0 -3.0 -6.8 -2.7 -4.4 -3.1 -9.7 -3.1 -8.0 -1.2 1.5 0.4 -4.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.9 -0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.7 Thailand 2.0 10.9 -3.0 -2.7 -3.1 -3.1 -1.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 Eu ro pe an d C en tral A s ia 3 .0 1 2 .0 - 2 .1 - 1 .5 - 2 .9 0 .8 - 0 .8 0 .2 0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 - 0 .1 .. Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia 3 .0 -1.3 1 2 .0 - 2 .1 -1.8 - 1 .5 -15.7 - 2 .9 17.9 0 .8 -5.8 - 0 .8 -3.0 0 .2 1.5 -0.6 0 .1 0 .0 0.4 0 0.4 .0 - 0 .1 1.3 .. Turkey 2.3 10.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Russian Federation 9.3 24.7 -1.3 -1.8 -15.7 17.9 -5.8 -3.0 1.5 -0.6 0.4 0.4 1.3 Poland 1.9 10.2 -1.7 -1.8 -1.7 -1.2 0.3 2.4 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 Turkey 2.3 10.0 -1.6 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 Poland L atin A meric a an d C arib b ean 1.9 4 .7 10.2 5 .2 -1.7 - 4 .7 -4-1.8 .8 -1.7 -15 .5 -1.2 0 .5 1 .6 - 1 32.4 0.3 .4 - 20.1 .6 - 20.1 .8 -0.1 5 .1 00.0 .3 0.0 .. Brazil 9.0 -3.5 -5.7 -3.1 -28.0 -13.5 35.7 -2.5 0.3 -3.9 0.0 -0.7 -3.1 L atin America an d Caribbean Mexico 4 .7 3.5 3.8 5 .2 - 4 .8 - 4 .7 -2.1 -4.7 -1 5 .5 19.0 -2.6 1 .6 - 0 .5 -4.7 1 3 .4 -12.7 - 2 .6 -5.0 - 2 .8 -0.3 -1.9 5 .1 0 .3 12.9 0.8 .. Brazil Argentina -3.5 9.0 12.4 -2.1 -5.7 -18.1 -6.8 -3.1 -28.0 -30.2 -17.8 -13.5 -35.4 35.7 -55.5 -2.5 0.3 -7.7 -3.9 62.9 0.0 -3.0 -9.3 -0.7 -3.5 -3.1 Mexico 3.8 3.5 -4.7 -2.1 -2.6 19.0 -4.7 -12.7 -5.0 -1.9 -0.3 0.8 12.9 M iddle Eas t an d No rth A fric a Argentina 1 2-2.1 .2 16 .5 .4 1 8-6.8 12.4 .. -18.1 .. -17.8 .. -30.2 .. -35.4 .. -55.5 .. -7.7 -9.3.. 62.9.. -3.0 .. -3.5 .. Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -17.0 29.2 -8.8 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 0.6 0.6 2.0 Iran 13.5 28.3 0.3 -0.8 -18.2 29.5 -8.7 -3.6 2.1 -0.9 0.7 0.4 1.9 Middle Eas t an d North Africa 1 2 .2 1 6 .4 1 8 .5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt 5.3 17.0 0.1 -0.9 -2.2 2.5 -6.1 -0.7 0.5 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 Saudi Arabia 12.6 28.0 0.8 -0.9 -17.0 29.2 -8.8 -2.6 2.2 -0.7 0.6 0.6 2.0 Iran So u th A s ia 13.5 28.3 2 .3 1 1 .1 0.3 - 3 .4 -0.8 - 1 .9 -18.2 - 6 .3 29.5 - 1 .3 -8.7 - 1 .0 -3.6 0 .0 2.1 - 0 .1 -0.9 00.7 - 0 .3 0.4 1.9 .0 - 0 .7 - 0 .4 Egypt India 2.55.3 17.0 11.6 0.1 -3.8 -0.9 -1.9 -2.2 -7.2 2.5 -1.0 -6.1 -1.0 -0.7 -0.2 0.5 0.0 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4-0.1 Pakistan 2.1 9.8 -1.5 -2.3 -1.3 -5.1 -3.5 2.5 0.3 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 Sou th As ia Bangladesh 2 .3 1.6 1 .1 -1.3 19.0 - 1 .9 - 3 .4 -1.4 - 6 .3 -0.1 -0.1 1 .3 1 .0 - 0.0 0 .0 2.2 -0 .1 0.0 -0 .3 0 0.0 .0 0.0 -0 .7 - 0 0.0 .4 0.0 India 2.5 11.6 -3.8 -1.9 -7.2 -1.0 -1.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 Su b - Sah aran A fric a Pakistan 8 .3 9.8 - 2-1.5 2.1 2 4 .3 .7 -5 .0-20 -2.3 .1 -1.3 7.. .9 -5.1 2.5 -9 .1 -3.5 .. 0.3 .. -0.6 -0.7 .. .. -0.1 0.1.. South Africa Bangladesh 4.51.6 22.3 -1.3 -6.5 9.0 -7.7 -1.4-24.2 -0.1 -6.7 -5.00.1 -1.3 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.9 0.0 -0.6 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 Nigeria 14.3 29.2 0.5 -0.8 -16.5 27.9 -8.8 -2.9 2.1 -0.8 0.6 0.4 2.0 /a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis. Su b- Sah aran Africa 8 .3 2 4 .3 - 2 .7 - 5 .0 - 2 0 .1 7 .9 - 9 .1 .. .. .. .. .. .. /b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. South Africa 4.5 22.3 -7.7 -6.5 -24.2 -6.7 -1.3 -5.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.6 -1.1 -0.4 /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual Nigeria 14.3 29.2 0.5 -0.8 -16.5 27.9 trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price for developing (developed) -8.8 -2.9 2.1 -0.8 0.6 0.4 2.0 /a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis. /b Implicit July export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis. 17, 2014 /c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely figures individual JULY 2014 Table Table A.A. 66 Developing countries Developingcountries countries' ''merchandis merchandis merchandis eeimport importgrow grow grow th th th (US (US dollar dollar values values unless unless otherwise otherwise otherwise indicated; indicated; indicated; percent percent percent change;seasonally change; change; seasonally seasonally adjusted adjusted adjusted annual annual annual rates rates rates except except monthly monthly figures, figures, which which which are are are m/m m/m m/m change change change A/a) /a) /a) AA vvv erag erag erag e ee 22 200 011 133 3 00 22 44 11 202 2 0 101 414 4 1 99 11 99 99 9 ---0 0 0 999 22 200 011 11112 220 001 112 22 22001133 Q2 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 eb MM F eb F eb ar M ar A ar A prAp MM prr ay M ayJuJu ay nJunn ImIp I moppo o rt rt v alu eses v alu Dev D D ev eloelo pin p p in in ggco on cu utries n tries 11 1222..8 .8 8 22 244..7 4 .77 4 44..7 7 . 7 33.2 .2 - --8 88..6 .6 6 22 2 2 .. 2 .2 33.0 3 .0 -2-2.5.5 -4-. 4 1 1 -5 .1 -.5 - 54..4 4 4 .4 0 4..0 0-2 .2 --92. . 9 9 .. .. . EasEas ts t A A s ia ia an dd an P ac P ac ific ific 11 1555..7 .7 7 22 244..2 4 .22 5 55 6 ..6 . 6 55.4 .4 - --1113 33..1 .1 1 77 7.. 1.1 1 77.2 7 .2 -2-2.5.5 -5-. 5 8 8- 1 .8 --0 11.0 04..4 4 4 7 .7 7..4 4-4 2 .4 -- 4. . 2 3 2 4 .44.3 .3 China China 20.4 20.4 20.4 24.9 24.9 24.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 7.5 7.5 -12.7 -12.7 13.7 -12.7 13.7 13.7 7.8 7.8 7.8 0.30.3 -5.6 -5.6 -13.3 -5.6 -13.3 -13.3 8.8 8.8-5.2 8.8 -5.2 4.4 -5.2 4.4 4.4 Indonesia Indonesia 15.2 15.2 15.2 30.8 30.8 30.8 8.3 8.3 8.3 -2.7 -2.7 -9.8 -18.1 -9.8 -9.8 -18.1 -18.1 9.8 9.8 -1.7 9.8 -1.7 -4.3 -1.7 -4.3 -4.3 -1.7 -1.7 3.8 3.8-7.2 3.8 -7.2 .. .... -7.2 Thailand Thailand 12.0 12.0 12.0 23.8 23.8 23.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 -0.7 -0.7 -24.0 -18.0 -24.0 -24.0 -18.0 -18.0 4.4 4.4 -25.4 4.4 -25.4 -9.3 0.1 -9.3 -9.3 0.1 0.1 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.5 1.8 .. .... 1.8 roro EuEu pepe p e an an dd C en C en tral tral AA s ia s iaia 11 1222..8 .8 8 22 288 .9 ..9 8 9 000..3 3 . 3 22.9 .9 - --3 33..2 .2 2 55 5 7 ...7 7 55.6 5 .6 -1 -166.6.6 -4-. 4 3 3 -2 .3 --.2 26..6 6 7 0 .0 7 0 .0 0..7 30. . 3 3 .. .. . Russian Russian Federation Federation 14.2 14.2 14.2 30.7 30.7 30.7 5.6 5.6 5.6 1.9 1.9 -16.5 -3.0 -16.5 -16.5 -3.0 -3.0 4.7 4.7 -7.4 4.7 -7.4 -7.2 -7.2 0.3 -7.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4-3.7 0.4 -3.7 -3.7 .. .... Turkey Turkey 13.4 13.4 13.4 30.0 30.0 30.0 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 6.2 6.2 6.7 -14.8 6.7 6.7 -14.8 -14.8 21.5 21.5 -17.9 21.5 -17.9 -5.8 -3.1 -5.8 -5.8 -3.1 -3.1 1.0 1.0-2.9 1.0 -2.9 -2.9 .. .... Poland Poland 12.6 12.6 12.6 18.8 18.8 18.8 -5.9 -5.9 -5.9 3.0 3.0 -15.4 16.8 -15.4 -15.4 16.8 16.8 8.2 8.2 33.6 8.2 33.6 -0.9 -0.7 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 -0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 .. .... L atin L atin Am Am eric eric aa an an dd CC arib arib arib bb bean ean ean 777..5 .5 5 22 222..7 2 .77 333 9 ..9 . 9 33.2 .2 0 00..55 -- .5 1 -1.. 17.7 7 2 ---2.2 2 .2 33 .9.9 -0-. 0 7 7 -3 .7 -.3 - 35..5 3..3 5 3 .3 3-2 .2 --42. . 4 4 .. .. . Brazil Brazil 9.6 9.6 9.6 24.7 24.7 24.7 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 7.3 7.3 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 1.1 1.1 1.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 1.4 1.4 -2.0 -11.7 -2.0 -2.0 -11.7 2.6 -11.7 2.6-0.3 2.6 -0.3-1.8 -0.3 -1.8 -1.8 Mexico Mexico 6.7 6.7 6.7 16.5 16.5 16.5 5.7 5.7 5.7 2.8 2.8 8.5 -3.1 8.5 8.5 -3.1 -3.1 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 8.8 8.8 -2.1 1.6 -2.1 -2.1 1.6 3.0 1.6 3.0-2.7 3.0 -2.7 .. .... -2.7 Argentina Argentina 8.6 8.6 8.6 31.1 31.1 31.1 -8.1 -8.1 -8.1 8.1 8.1 28.4 -19.7 28.4 28.4 -19.7 -19.7 -17.4 -17.4 -17.4 12.1 12.1 9.39.3 -9.4 9.3 -9.4 1.0 -9.4 1.0-6.5 1.0 -6.5 .. .... -6.5 MM iddle id id d d le le Eas Eas t an dd t an No No rth rth AA A aa fric fric fric a 11 1222..7 .7 7 11 177 .1 ..1 7 1 1 110 00..3 3 . 3 .. . ...... . .... . .. . . .. . . . .... . . .... . . .... . . . . . .. .. . Saudi Saudi Arabia Arabia 11.8 11.8 11.8 22.5 19.7 22.5 19.7 22.5 19.7 8.4 8.4 -6.6 -6.6 -14.1 -6.6 -14.1 -14.1 -1.6 14.2 -1.6 -1.6 14.2 3.0 3.0 -0.2 3.0 -0.2 -3.1 -0.2 -3.1-3.7 -3.1 -3.7 -3.7 .. .... Iran Iran 13.0 13.0 13.0 44.4 44.4 -2.9 44.4 -2.9 -2.9 .... .. .... .... .. .... .. .. .. .... .. .... .. .... .. .. .. .. .... Egypt Egypt 12.8 12.8 12.8 11.3 11.3 17.9 11.3 17.9 -15.9 17.9 -15.9 -6.9 -6.9 -27.7 -6.9 -27.7 -27.7 45.4 45.4 -15.8 45.4 -15.8 6.3 6.3 7.2 6.3 7.2 7.2 -23.2 -23.2 -23.2 23.6 23.6 23.6 .. .... SoSo u th u th AsA s ia ia 11 1777..7 .7 7 33 311..4 1 .44 444..0 0 . 0 -- 3 3.8 .8 - --117 17..7 7 7 --- .7 11155 5 0 ...0 0 -- 1 -1100 .4 0 .4 33.2.2 9.95 5 -3 .5 --.3 3 8- 2 8..8 -.2 - 8 8 8 .8 2..8 2 8. . 2 2 .. .. . India India 19.2 19.2 19.2 32.4 32.4 32.4 5.5 5.5 -5.1 5.5 -5.1 -22.5 -22.5 -18.9 -22.5 -18.9 -18.9 -11.3 -11.3 -11.3 -2.4 -2.4 11.2 11.2 -5.1 11.2 -5.1 -0.8 -5.1 -0.8 7.1 -0.8 7.1 7.1 .. .... Pakistan Pakistan 14.8 14.8 14.8 16.4 16.4 16.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 9.8 9.8 -5.2 9.8 -5.2 -5.2 -20.8 -20.8 -20.8 48.2 48.2 -3.4 -3.4 4.6 -3.4 4.6 4.6 -15.7 -15.7 -15.7 20.3 20.3 20.3 .. .... Bangladesh Bangladesh 29.7 29.7 29.7 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 5.5 5.5 4.5 4.5 21.0 4.5 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 19.4 19.4 8.78.7 1.8 8.7 1.8 1.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... b -b SuSu - Sah Sah aran aran aa A fric A fric 11 1333..6 .6 6 22 233..2 3 .22 555 0 ..0 . 0 .. . ...... . .... . .. . . .. . . . .... . . .... . . .... . . .. . .. .. . South South Africa Africa 14.6 14.6 14.6 23.6 23.6 23.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 -0.5 -0.5 8.4 8.4 8.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 -6.9 -13.1 -6.9 -6.9 -13.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 7.37.3 -6.0 7.3 -6.0 -6.0 .. .... .. .... Nigeria Nigeria 20.2 20.2 20.2 24.1 24.1 24.1 -5.6 -5.6 -5.6 .... .. .... .... .. .... .. .. .. .... .. .... .. .... .. .... .. .... b ,c b ,c Im m Ip op o rt rt p ric p ric eses D ev D ev eloelo gg p in p in co cu on utries n tries 2.2 2.2 13.6 13.6 -1.5 -2.0 -1.5 -2.0 -6.2 -6.2 -4.4 -4.4 -0.7 -11.7 -0.7 -1.4 -1.4 0.1 0.1 2.6 2.6 0.6 0.6 .... Eas Eas ts t A A s ia ia ananddP acP ac ific ific 33 .5.5 1166 .7.7 11 . 1 -- .1 0 0 .2 .2 1..1 --1 1 11..0 0 11. 4 - 1 2 . 6 -2.66 - -00..1 1 22..6 6 00. . 7 4 7 -- 4.8 .8 China China 4.6 4.6 19.2 19.2 1.6 1.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 3.2 3.2 0.9 -16.4 0.9 -3.7 -3.7 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 0.9 0.9 -4.7-4.7 Indonesia Indonesia 2.3 2.3 11.6 11.6 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -1.8 -2.0 -2.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.8 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2-0.2 Thailand Thailand 3.4 3.4 10.2 10.2 1.6 -2.1 1.6 -2.1 -5.8 -5.8 -2.8 -2.8 3.1 3.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.4 roro EuEu pe e an p an dd C en C en tral tral AsAia s ia 00.9.9 77 .9. 9 -- 55 . 8 -- .8 4 4 .5 .5 --114 9 - 4..9 -7 7..8 8 -3 - 3. 5 - 1 6 . 5 -0.1 1 00..0 0 0 2 2 0..2 4 2. . 4 .. . Russian Russian Federation Federation 1.9 1.9 9.9 -1.6 9.9 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.1 -1.1 -0.9 -0.9 0.2 0.2 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.10.1 Turkey Turkey -7.7 -7.7 3.4 -9.5 3.4 -9.5 -6.8 -6.8 -23.1 -22.5 -23.1 -22.5 -9.7 -29.9 -9.7 0.9 0.9 -0.2 -0.2 1.2 1.2 3.3 3.3 10.7 10.7 Poland Poland 4.6 4.6 11.4 -3.9 11.4 -3.9 1.7 1.7 -7.0 -7.0 0.6 0.6 8.7 8.7 3.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.6 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 -1.9 2.22.2 L atin L atin Am Am aa eric eric an an dd C arib C arib b ean b ean 00.1.1 1111 .6 55 . 6 -- . 8 -- .8 3 3 .7 .7 --5 9 5..9 --118 8..0 0 -3 - 3.0 -14.8 -0.44 2 0 5 2..0 8 0 5..8 2 0. . 2 .. . Brazil Brazil 1.8 1.8 -13.3 -10.6 20.3 -13.3 20.3 -10.6 -16.0 -16.0 -35.4 -35.4 2.4 -16.7 2.4 0.3 0.3 3.5 3.5 3.4 -0.9 3.4 -0.9 5.45.4 Mexico Mexico -0.6 -0.6 9.3 -4.7 9.3 -4.7 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 -11.8 -11.8 -2.2 -2.2 -3.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 -1.7 -1.7 Argentina Argentina -5.7 -5.7 -10.5 -13.4 1.5 -10.5 1.5 -13.4 -11.9 -11.9 -26.4 -26.4 -27.6 -58.1 -27.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 45.3 0.0 45.3 0.00.0 0.10.1 MMid id d le d le Eas Eas t an t an dd No No rth rth AA fric fric aa 33 .6.6 88 .0.0 22 .5 .5 ... .... .... .. .. .... .... .... .. . .. . Saudi Saudi Arabia Arabia 2.2 2.2 10.5 10.5 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.7 -2.4 -2.4 -1.5 -1.5 -0.6 -0.6 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 Iran Iran 2.6 2.6 11.3 11.3 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 -2.2 -2.2 -2.6 -2.6 -1.2 -1.2 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.00.0 -0.1 -0.1 Egypt Egypt 2.7 2.7 14.0 14.0 -1.6 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -3.9 -3.9 -4.3 -4.3 -1.2 -1.2 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 -1.0 -1.0 SoSo u th u th AsA s ia ia 44 .7.7 1177 .9. 9 -- 00 . 9 -- .9 3 3 .5 .5 --1133..4 4 3 6 3..6 -4 - 4. 0 0.0 1.0 0 00..1 1 --0 0..3 3 0 3 0. . 3 00.4 .4 India India 5.6 5.6 19.2 -0.4 19.2 -0.4 -3.8 -3.8 -15.3 -15.3 5.2 5.2 -5.0 -5.0 -0.1 1.2 1.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6 Pakistan Pakistan 2.2 2.2 11.6 -4.3 11.6 -2.2 -4.3 -2.2 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 Bangladesh Bangladesh 13.0 -3.7 13.0 -1.8 -3.7 -1.8 -1.1 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 2.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 -0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 SuSub -b - Sah Sah aran aran aa A fric A fric 33.4. 4 11 00.4 22 . 4 -- .7 .7 ... .... .... .. .. .... .... .... .. . .. . South South Africa Africa 4.9 4.9 9.3 -5.7 9.3 -5.7 -6.6-6.6 -12.4 -12.4 -6.5 -6.5 1.6 1.6 -10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 Nigeria Nigeria 1.9 10.0 1.9 10.0 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6-1.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.1 -0.1 1.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 /a /a Merchandise Merchandise import import (C.I.F.), (C.I.F.), customs customs basis. basis. /b/b Implicit Implicit import import unit unit values, values, U.S. U.S. Dollar Dollar basis. basis. In In /c /c many many cases cases countries countries are are very very late late in in reporting reporting trade trade prices. To prices. Toestimate moretimely estimatemore timely figures figures individual individual trade trade prices prices were were updated updated using using the the median median (mean)regional (mean) tradeprice regionaltrade for developing pricefor developing (developed) (developed) countries countries whenever whenever 60% 60% or or more more of of reportersby reporters by tradeweight trade weightreported. reported. July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.7 Table Ex A.8 ch Ex an ch ge an geRates Rates(USD/L (USD/LCU) CU) (annual pee pe rc (annual nt rc c hange e nt e xc c hange e pt e xc mm e pt o nthly data o nthly whic data hhisiscc whic hange hange oovveerrpre prev io us vio us m mo nth a/) o nth a/) Average Av erage 22 00 33 11 22 01 14 04 2021041 4 22001100 2 01 20 1 2012 2013 11 3 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q1 Feb Feb Jan Mar MarApr Apr May Ju n e May World World .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. High High - in -in come come cou cou nn tries tries .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial Industrial countries countries 9.3 9.3 5.7 5.7 -1.3 -1.3 -3.1 -2.8 -0.9 -0.6 -3.4 -3.1 -4.2 -3.5 -2.0 -3.9 -3.8 -1.8 -0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.40.3 United United States States (SDR/USD) (SDR/USD) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00.0 Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -14.1 -18.8 -20.5 -19.1 -10.1 -0.3 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 Japan 6.7 10.1 -0.1 -18.2 -14.1 -18.8 -20.5 -19.1 -10.1 1.7 -0.2 -0.2 0.7 -0.2 Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Euro Area .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.8 6.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 United Kingdom -1.0 3.8 -1.1 -1.4 -1.4 -2.9 -1.8 0.8 6.8 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.5 Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Other high Hong income Kong (China) .. -0.2 .. -0.2 .. 0.4 .. 0.0 0.0.. 0.0.. 0.0.. 0.0 .. 0.0 .. -0.1 .. 0.0 .. 0.0 .. 0.1 .. 0.0 .. Singapore (China) Hong Kong -0.2 6.7 -0.2 8.4 0.4 0.6 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 -2.5 -2.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 -1.1 0.1 1.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 Singapore Taiwan (China) 6.7 4.9 8.4 7.2 0.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.4 2.1 1.2 -1.7 0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -2.2 -1.4 -2.5 -2.7 0.5 -0.1 1.0 -1.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 Taiwan (China) 4.9 7.2 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 -0.8 -0.2 -1.4 -2.7 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.5 Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Dev elopin Eas g an t As ia coudn Ptries acific .. 7 .9 .. 0 .0 .. - 7 .2 - 4 .7 .. - 4 .3.. - 3 .5.. - 8 .0 .. - 1 2 .4 .. - 1 3 .2 .. - 0 .5 .. 1 .4 .. 3 .1 .. - 0 .1 ..- 0 .7 .. China Eas t As ia an d Pacific 70.9 .9 04.7 .0 2.5 2.6 -4 .7 -7 .2 1.4 -4 .3 -3 2.9.5 -8 3.7.0 -12.5 2 .4 -1 2.0 3 .2 0.4 3 .1 -1.5 1 .4 -0.5 -0 .4 -0.8 -0 .4 -0.2 -2 .3 Indonesia China 14.5 0.9 3.6 4.7 2.5 -10.2 -6.5 2.6 -6.4 -5.0 1.4 2.9 3.7 -10.9 -17.0 2.5 -18.0 2.0 -0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.2-0.9 -0.7 2.0 4.4 -0.1 0.1 Thailand Indonesia 8.2 14.5 4.0 3.6 -1.9 1.1 -6.5 -10.2 4.0 -5.0 -6.4 4.6 -10.9 -0.4 -3.4 -17.0 -18.0 -1.7 -8.7 2.0 1.0 4.4 0.7-0.5 0.2 -0.5-0.7 -3.0 Malaysia Thailand 9.4 8.2 5.3 4.0 -1.0 -1.9 -2.0 1.1 -0.7 4.0 1.4 4.6 -3.7 -0.4 -4.7 -3.4 -6.5 -8.7 -1.6 1.0 -0.10.7 0.8 0.2 0.8 -0.7 0.8 0.1 Malaysia 9.4 5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.7 1.4 -3.7 -4.7 -6.5 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.3 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia - 5 .8 - 3 2 .2 - 3 2 .2 - 5 .9 - 4 .6 - 5 .6 - 5 .9 - 7 .4 - 1 0 .2 - 1 .3 - 1 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 0 .9 Russian Federation 4.6 3.3 -5.3 -2.5 -0.9 -1.9 -2.6 -4.6 -13.2 -2.7 -4.3 -2.2 1.3 2.4 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia -5 .8 -3 2 .2 -3 2 .2 -5 .9 -4 .6 -5 .6 -5 .9 -7 .4 -1 0 .2 -1 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -0 .8 -1 .1 Turkey 3.1 -10.3 -6.7 -5.5 0.6 -1.9 -8.5 -11.4 -19.3 -6.9 0.5 -0.2 4.1 1.7 Russian Poland Federation 4.6 3.4 3.3 1.8 -5.3 -8.9 -2.5 3.0 -0.9 2.4 -1.9 3.2 -2.6 3.1 3.1 -4.6 -13.2 3.1 -4.3 -2.2 1.3 2.4 1.4 -0.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5 Turkey Czech Republic 3.1 -10.3 -0.2 8.0 -6.7 -9.6 -5.5 0.0 0.6 -1.3 -1.9 -0.4 -8.5 2.7 -11.4 -1.1 -19.3 -3.3 -0.5 -0.2 1.3 0.5 0.5 4.1 -0.31.7-0.6 -1.4 Poland 3.4 1.8 -8.9 3.0 2.4 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.1 0.5 0.4 0.3 -0.5 0.1 L atin Republic Czech America an d Caribbean -0.2 .. 8.0 .. -9.6 .. 0.0 .. -1.3 .. -0.4 .. 2.7 .. -1.1 .. -3.3 .. 0.5 .. 1.3 -0.3 .. .. -0.6 .. -1.0 .. Brazil 13.6 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -11.5 -5.3 -11.4 -9.6 -15.5 -1.5 0.0 2.4 4.2 0.5 L atin America an d Caribbean Mexico .. 6.9 .. 1.6 .. -5.4 .. 3.0 .. 8.4 2.7 .. 1.9.. -0.6.. -4.5 .. -1.6 .. -0.6 .. 0.7 .. 1.0 .. 1.0 .. Argentina Brazil -4.7 13.6 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 5.1 -14.3 -9.5 -13.5 -5.3 -17.5 -11.5 -15.1 -11.4 -20.9 -9.6 -15.5 -10.5 -34.2 0.0 -9.7 4.3 -0.9 2.4 -1.0 0.4-0.4 -0.6 Colombia Mexico 13.6 6.9 2.7 1.6 2.9 -3.9 -5.4 3.0 0.3 2.7 8.4 -5.8 -4.1 1.9 -5.7 -0.6 -10.7 -4.5 -0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 -1.6 -3.7 1.2 4.1 -0.5 Argentina -4.7 -5.3 -9.3 -16.9 -13.5 -15.1 -17.5 -20.9 -34.2 -9.7 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 -1.1 Middle Eas t an d North Africa Colombia .. 13.6 .. 2.7 .. 2.9 .. -3.9 .. -4.1 0.3 .. .. -5.8 .. -5.7 .. -10.7 .. -3.7 .. 4.1 .. 1.2 .. 1.1 ..1.5 Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -3.2 0.2 -45.7 -50.1 -50.3 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.6 -1.8 Middle Eas t an d North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt -1.4 -5.2 -2.1 -11.7 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -11.2 -3.9 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -1.4 Saudi Arabia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Algeria -1.8 1.1 -6.2 -2.3 -4.5 -4.0 0.1 -1.0 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 Iran -2.0 -5.1 -13.0 -32.1 -3.2 0.2 -45.7 -50.1 -50.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.7 -1.7 -0.3 Egypt Sou th As ia -1.4 3 .8 -5.2 - 1 .7 -11.7 2 .0 - 1-2.1 - 7 .5 -9.8 -13.0 -12.7 -11.2 -3.9 - 6 .4 - 2 .9 - 9 .3 - 1 0 .7 - 1 0 .1 0.0- 0 .1 - 0 .1 0.0 -0.3 1 .1 2 .2 -1.4 1 .1 -0.9 Algeria India -1.8 5.9 1.1 -6.2 -2.0 -12.6 -2.3 -8.8 -4.5 -4.0 0.1 -1.0 -7.2 -3.3 -11.2 -12.6 -12.3 0.8 0.4 -0.4 -0.2 0.4 -1.2 -0.3 2.0 1.0 1.7 -0.5 Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 -7.5 -6.4 -8.2 -10.0 -5.4 1.4 0.4 5.2 2.3 -1.1 Sou th As ia Bangladesh 3 .8 -2 -0.8 1 .7 -7 .0 -1-9.5 -6.0 .5 4.8 -6 .4 -2 4.7 .9 -9 5.1 .3 -14.4 5.1 0 .7 -1 0 .1 1.8 -0 0.0 .1 0.02 .2 0.0 1 .3 0.0 1 .0 0.2 -0 .5 India Sri Lanka 5.9 1.7 -2.0 -12.6 2.3 -13.4 -8.8 -1.2 -7.2 -6.1 -3.3 -11.2 2.6 0.2 -12.6 -1.4 -12.3 -3.0 -0.2 2.0 1.2 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 -0.7 Pakistan -4.1 -1.4 -7.5 -8.1 -7.5 -6.4 -8.2 -10.0 -5.4 0.4 5.2 2.3 -1.1 0.2 Su b- Sah aran Africa Bangladesh - 6 .6 - -0.8 3 .2 - 0 5 .2 --9.5 -6.0 .5 4.8 4.7 5.1 5.1 4.4 0.0- 0 .4 1.8 - 0 .5 0.0- 0 .2 0.0 0 .2 0.2 - 0 .30.0 SriSouth Lanka Africa 15.0 1.7 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 2.3 -13.4 -1.2 -13.4 -14.4 -6.1 2.6 0.2-17.4 -14.5 -1.4 -17.6 -3.0 -4.7 -0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 1.3 -0.7 1.9 1.9 0.1 Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 -0.7 -2.3 -0.4 1.6 0.2 Su b-Sah aran Africa -6 .7 -5 .1 -3 .1 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .2 0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .7 Memo: South Africa 15.0 0.8 -11.5 -15.0 -13.4 -14.4 -17.4 -14.5 -17.6 -0.7 1.9 1.9 1.3 -2.6 OECD 9.1 5.6 -1.5 -2.9 -0.6 -3.0 -4.2 -3.9 -2.6 -0.8 0.0 -0.1 1.7 1.3 Nigeria -0.8 -3.1 -1.9 -0.3 1.1 0.4 -1.3 -1.3 -3.3 -2.3 -0.4 1.6 0.2 -0.7 Developing excl. China .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Developing oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Memo: Developing non-oil exporters .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. OECD 9.2 5.6 -1.5 -2.7 -0.4 -2.8 -3.9 -3.6 -2.4 0.0 -0.1 1.8 1.3 0.3 July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table Table A.8 Global A.8 Global Inflation Inflation (annual percent (annual change; percent seasonally change; adjusted seasonally a/) adjusted a/) Av Average erage 00 22 13 13 202 014 14 2014 2014 00-10 20 2 02000-10 210 1 1 22 001122 220 0113 Q1 Q1 Q2 Q2 Q3 Q3 Q4Q4 Q1 Q1 Jan JanMar Mar Apr AprMay Ju n e Ju n e May World World 3.0 3.0 4.2 4.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.02.7 2.72.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 in come High -High cou n -in come tries cou n tries 2.1 2.1 2.8 2.8 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.11.2 1.21.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 Industrial countries Industrial countries 1.9 1.9 2.62.6 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.01.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 United States United States 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.1 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.52.0 2.02.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Japan Japan -0.3-0.3 -0.3-0.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.4 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.9 -0.3 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.63.4 3.43.7 3.7.. .. Euro Area Euro Area 2.0 2.0 2.62.6 2.3 2.3 1.3 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 0.80.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 United Kindgom United Kindgom 2.8 2.8 5.2 5.2 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.62.3 2.32.4 2.4 2.7 2.7 high income Other Other high income 2.62.6 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.80.7 0.70.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 Kong Kong Hong Hong (China) (China) 0.1 0.1 5.35.3 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.3 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.1 5.3 5.3 4.44.4 4.2 4.2 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.6 Singapore Singapore 1.6 1.6 5.2 5.2 4.6 4.6 2.3 2.3 3.8 3.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.9 2.02.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.42.0 2.02.8 2.8 2.0 2.0 Taiwan (China) Taiwan (China) 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 1.2 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 1.6 1.61.7 1.71.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 Dev elopin g cou n tries Dev elopin g cou n tries 5.3 5.3 7.57.5 6.4 6.4 .. .. 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.04.0 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.4 3.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 Eas t As ia an d P acific Eas t As ia an d Pacific 2 .6 5 .6 2.6 5.6 2.8 2 .8 .. .. 3 .4 3.4 .2 3 2 .6 3 2.6 3.2 3.4 .4 4.14 .1 4.3 4 .34.0 43.9.0 33.2.9 32.9 .2 2 .9 ChinaChina 2.0 2.0 5.5 5.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.7 2.3 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.41.8 1.82.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 Indonesia Indonesia 8.1 8.1 5.35.3 4.0 4.0 6.4 6.4 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.0 8.0 8.0 8.18.1 7.8 7.8 8.3 7.3 8.3 7.3 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.3 6.4 6.4 Thailand Thailand 2.5 2.5 3.8 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.1 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.61.6 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.1 2.12.5 2.52.6 2.6 2.4 2.4 Malaysia Malaysia 2.2 2.2 3.2 3.2 1.7 1.7 2.1 2.1 1.5 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.2 2.2 2.92.9 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 Eu rope an d Cen Eu rope an d tral As ia Cen tral As ia 8.2 88.7 8 .2 .7 6 .2 6.2 3 .5 3.5 3 .7 3.1 3.7 3 .1 1.8 1 .8 2.02 .0 2.2 2 .22.7 21.7.7 11.5.7 .5 1 .5 11.5 Russian Federation Russian Federation 13.3 13.3 8.48.4 5.1 5.1 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.3 6.3 6.3 6.36.3 6.5 6.5 6.1 6.1 7.0 7.07.4 7.47.7 7.7 7.8 7.8 Turkey Turkey 6.56.5 8.9 8.9 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 8.2 8.2 7.57.5 8.0 8.0 7.7 8.4 9.4 9.4 7.7 8.4 9.7 9.7 9.3 9.3 Poland Poland 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.2 3.7 3.7 1.2 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.3 0.90.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.00.5 0.50.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Republic CzechCzech Republic 2.7 2.7 1.91.9 3.3 3.3 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 L atin LAmerica atin America an d an Caribbean d Caribbean 7.2 7 .7 7 .2 7.7 77.0 .0 .. .. 3 .8 3.8 3.9 3.7 3.7 .7 3.43 .4 3 .9 3 .7 3 3.4 3 .43.4 33.5.4 33.9.5 33.7 .9 3 .7 Brazil Brazil 7.0 7.0 6.66.6 5.4 5.4 6.4 6.4 6.9 6.9 7.0 6.0 7.0 6.0 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.3 5.6 5.8 6.1 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.1 Mexico Mexico 5.1 5.1 3.4 3.4 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 4.4 3.4 4.4 3.4 3.7 3.7 4.2 4.2 4.5 4.5 3.7 3.73.5 3.53.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 Argentina Argentina 8.8 8.8 9.89.8 10.0 10.6 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.4 10.6 10.4 10.6 10.6 10.6 .. .. .. .. .. .... .... .... .. Colombia Colombia 5.9 5.9 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 1.81.8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 Middle Eas t an d North Africa Middle Eas t an d North Africa 7 .1 1 1 .9 7.1 11.9 11.7 1 1 .7 .. .. 6 .4 6.4 5 .7 5.7 4.5 4.8 3.13 .1 4 .5 4 .8 4.1 4 .12.8 22.5.8 22.8.5 .8 2 .6 22.6 Saudi Arabia 2.4 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 Saudi Arabia 2.4 3.9 2.9 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 Iran 14.8 20.6 19.9 39.2 39.6 42.9 42.9 32.7 23.7 28.9 19.7 17.4 16.5 .. Iran 14.8 20.6 19.9 39.2 39.6 42.9 42.9 32.7 23.7 28.9 19.7 17.4 16.5 .. Egypt - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt - .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria 3.4 5.8 9.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 .. Algeria 3.4 5.8 9.7 4.1 6.4 4.6 3.5 1.9 2.1 2.0 2.2 1.8 2.8 .. Sou th As ia 9 .8 9 .5 .. 7 .4 7 .2 8 .0 8 .4 7 .3 7 .3 7 .4 7 .3 7 .5 7 .2 Sou th As ia 9.8 9.5 .. 7.4 7.2 8.0 8.4 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.2 India 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.7 9.5 9.6 10.4 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.3 7.3 India 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.7 9.5 9.6 10.4 8.4 8.9 8.3 8.5 8.3 7.3 Pakistan 11.9 9.7 7.7 7.4 5.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 8.3 8.2 Pakistan 11.9 9.7 7.7 7.4 5.6 8.1 9.7 8.1 7.9 8.6 9.2 8.3 8.2 Bangladesh 6.0 10.3 6.5 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.0 Bangladesh 6.0 10.3 6.5 7.5 7.1 8.1 7.7 7.2 7.3 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.0 Sri Lanka 10.4 6.7 7.5 6.9 9.2 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.3 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.2 2.7 Sri Lanka 10.4 6.7 7.5 6.9 9.2 6.8 6.1 5.7 4.3 4.5 4.2 5.0 3.2 2.7 Su b- Sah aran Africa 8 .6 9 .6 1 0 .7 .. 4 .6 4 .3 5 .0 4 .5 5 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 3 .2 4 .9 Su b-Sah aran Africa 8.6 9.6 10.7 .. 4.6 4.3 5.0 4.5 5.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 3.2 4.9 South Africa 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.9 6.8 South Africa 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.6 6.3 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.9 6.8 Nigeria 12.5 10.8 12.2 8.5 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.0 Nigeria 12.5 10.8 12.2 8.5 9.2 8.6 8.2 8.0 8.0 8.3 7.8 7.8 7.8 8.0 Memo: Memo: OECD 7.4 2.7 2.1 .. 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 OECD 7.4 2.7 2.1 .. 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.5 Developing excl. China 7.9 8.5 8.1 .. 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.4 Developing excl. China 7.9 8.5 8.1 .. 4.5 4.6 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.4 Developing oil exporters 4.5 9.7 9.4 .. 4.1 4.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7 Developing oil exporters 4.5 9.7 9.4 .. 4.1 4.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.7 Developing non-oil exporters 6.7 5.2 .. 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.3 Developing non-oil exporters 6.7 5.2 .. 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 4.0 3.4 3.3 Asian high tech exporters .. .. Asian high tech exporters .. .. a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates. a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates. July 17, 2014 JULY 2014 Table A.9 Global Central Bank Interest Rates Table A.9 Global (percentage a/) Central Bank Interest Rates (percentage a/) Av erage 2013 2014 2014 Av erage 2013 2014 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May World 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May World High -in come cou n tries b -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 -1 .4 5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. High - in come cou Industrial n tries b countries - 1 .4 5 - 1 .4 -1.44 5 - 1 .4 -1.44 5 - 1-1.44 -1.44 .4 5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Industrial countries United States (US Federal funds rate) -1.44 -1.44 -1.44 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 -1.44 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 .. 0.25 .. 0.25 ..0.25 .. 0.25 .. United States Japan (US Federal (Discount Rate) funds rate) 0.250.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.100.25 0.25 (Discount Japan Euro Rate) 0.10 0.10 Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.10 0.10 0.55 0.10 0.75 0.10 0.58 0.10 0.50 0.10 0.35 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.10 0.25 0.25 0.100.250.100.250.10 Euro Area (Eurosys United Kingdommain refi rate-minimum (Clearing bid) 1.00 bank's base rate) 0.50 1.25 0.50 0.55 0.50 0.88 0.50 0.75 7.50 0.58 8.50 0.50 9.50 0.35 10.50 0.25 10.50 0.25 0.50 0.25 0.25 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.250.500.25 United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 7.50 8.50 9.50 10.50 10.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Other high income .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Other high Hongincome Kong (Discount rate) .. 3.13 .. 3.13 .. 3.13 .. 3.13 .. 0.50 0.50 .. 0.50.. 0.50.. 0.50 .. 0.50 .. 0.50 .. 0.50 ..0.50 ..0.50 .. Kong (Discount Hong Singapore rate) (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 3.13 1.15 3.13 1.15 3.13 1.15 3.131.15 0.44 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.50 0.44 0.50 0.50 0.19 0.19 0.50 0.190.500.19 0.500.190.50 Singapore (MAS Interbank Taiwan (Interbank swap 1 overnight month rate) rate) 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.93 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.44 0.19 0.19 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.880.19 0.191.880.19 Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 1.93 1.93 1.93 1.93 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 1.88 Dev elopin g cou n tries Dev elopin g cou n tries Eas t As ia an d Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Eas t As ia an d P acific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 7.18 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 7.18 7.18 7.18 7.18 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 5.75 5.80 6.66 7.39 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 9.18 9.18 9.18 9.18 5.75 5.80 6.66 7.39 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 7.50 Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 1.48 2.96 2.96 2.58 2.75 2.66 2.50 2.41 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.08 2.00 2.00 Thailand (Repurchase Rate) 1.48 2.96 2.96 2.58 2.75 2.66 2.50 2.41 2.20 2.25 2.25 2.08 2.00 2.00 Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 4.48 5.48 6.48 7.48 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 4.48 5.48 6.48 7.48 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Eu rope an d Cen tral As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 10.87 10.87 10.87 10.87 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 8.25 Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 17.05 17.05 17.05 17.05 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 Poland (Interbank 2 week) 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 3.73 3.03 2.51 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Poland (Interbank 2 week) 5.88 5.88 5.88 5.88 3.73 3.03 2.51 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 3.49 3.49 3.49 3.49 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 L atin America an d Caribbean .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. L atin America an d Caribbean .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.25 7.63 8.63 9.64 10.52 10.28 10.54 10.75 10.99 11.00 Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 12.45 12.45 12.45 12.45 7.25 7.63 8.63 9.64 10.52 10.28 10.54 10.75 10.99 11.00 Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.38 4.00 3.94 3.57 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 7.88 7.88 7.88 7.88 4.38 4.00 3.94 3.57 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.50 Argentina (30 Day deposit) 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.43 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Argentina (30 Day deposit) 11.43 11.43 11.43 11.43 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 3.93 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.30 3.51 Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 9.68 9.68 9.68 9.68 3.93 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.25 3.30 3.51 Middle Eas t an d North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Middle Eas t an d North Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 2.89 2.89 2.89 2.89 0.99 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 Egypt (IMF discount rate) 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Egypt (IMF discount rate) 10.17 10.17 10.17 10.17 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria (IMF discount rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Algeria (IMF discount rate) 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sou th Asth Sou ia As ia .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. India India (Bank(Bank 365+365+ deposit deposit days) days) 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.90 7.80 7.34 7.80 7.28 7.67 7.34 7.28 7.67 7.92 7.92 7.78 8.00 8.00 7.78 8.00 8.008.00 8.008.008.00 Pakistan (Repo 7-15 Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) day) 10.63 10.63 10.6310.63 10.63 10.63 10.63 10.63 9.50 9.45 9.09 9.50 9.45 9.09 9.74 10.00 9.74 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00 Bangladesh Bangladesh (Bank(Bank Rate)Rate) 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. Sri Lanka (Central Sri Lanka (Central bankbank repurchase) repurchase) 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. aran aran Su b-Sah Su b- Sah AfricaAfrica .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. AfricaAfrica South South (Repo (Repo rate) rate) 11.61 11.61 11.6111.61 11.61 11.61 11.61 11.61 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.005.00 5.345.34 5.07 5.50 5.07 5.505.50 5.50 5.50 5.505.505.50 Nigeria (IMF discount Nigeria (IMF discount rate) rate) 9.859.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the latest for the latest is the is monthmonth the value value ondate on the the date the data has has the data beenbeen reported reported is is (which (which the the last last daily daily observation one observation one day day before beforethethenote note becomes available). becomes available). July 17, 2014