For Official Use Only CLR Review Independent Evaluation Group 1. CAS/CPS Data Country: Liberia CAS/CPS Year: FY14 CAS/CPS Period: FY13 – FY17 CLR Period: FY13 – FY17 Date of this review: November 13, 2018 2. Ratings CLR Rating IEG Rating Development Outcome: Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory WBG Performance: Good Good 3. Executive Summary i. This review of Liberia’s Completion and Learning Review (CLR) of the World Bank Group’s (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) covers the CPS period FY13-FY17. There was no Performance and Learning Review (PLR) due to the Ebola outbreak and the related disruption in the country. ii. Liberia is a low-income country with a GNI per capita (Atlas method) of $380 in 2017. After a period of conflict and instability, Liberia’s GDP grew at an average annual rate of 6.2 percent during 2003-2013. The Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) crisis of 2014-2016 and a drop in global commodity prices resulted in slower average annual GDP growth of 2.1 percent with per capita annual GDP growth at -0.4 percent during 2013-2017. After declining from 64 percent to 54 percent during 2007-2013, the poverty rate increased to 61 percent in the first half of 2016. 1 The GINI Index was 33 in 2014, compared to 37 in 2007. Liberia ranks 181 out of 189 countries on the 2018 Human Development Index, compared to 174 out of 186 countries in 2013. As a post conflict country aiming to achieve sustained broad-based growth, Liberia faces several development challenges: large infrastructure gaps, poor education and health indicators, a large youth cohort, lack of economic diversification, and weak public institutions. iii. The World Bank Group’s Country Partnership Strategy had three pillars: (i) economic transformation; (ii) human development; and (iii) governance and public sector institutions. In addition, the CPS had two cross-cutting themes: capacity development and gender equality. In 2012, the government published the National Vision, Liberia Rising 2030 which aimed to bring Liberia to middle-income status by 2030. To implement Vision 2030, the government developed the Agenda for Transformation (AfT), a medium- term strategy covering the period 2013-2018, with four pillars: (i) peace, justice, security, and rule of law; (ii) economic transformation; (iii) human development; and (iv) governance and public institutions. The CPS supported pillars (ii-iv) of the AfT). iv. During the CPS period, total new IDA commitments reached $508 million comprising 13 Investment Project Financing (IPF) including one regional operation and three Additional 1 World Bank Group. 2018. Liberia Systematic Country Diagnostic. Washington D.C. CLR Reviewed by: Panel Reviewed by: CLR Review Manager/Coordinator Albert Martinez Mauricio Carrizosa Ismail Arslan IEGEC Consultant IEGEC Consultant Acting Manager, IEGEC Takatoshi Kamezawa Lourdes Pagaran Sr. Evaluation Office, IEGEC CLRR Coordinator, IEGEC For Official Use Only CLR Review 2 Independent Evaluation Group Financing, and four Development Policy Financing (DPF) including two Supplemental Financing. Infrastructure accounted for 43 percent of the new commitments in line with the CPS focus, followed by EVD crisis response (36 percent). The World Bank’s response to the EVD crisis increased the share of the social sectors in total IDA commitments compared to what was envisaged in the original CPS program. The IDA Crisis Response Window (CRW) supported the regional EVD emergency operations and provided supplemental financing for Poverty Reduction Support Development Policy Operations (PRSDPO) II and III. During the CPS period, new Trust Fund commitments reached $178 million, or the equivalent of 33 operations, of which 24 were under $5 million. Most of the new TF commitments complemented infrastructure operations, and supported post EVD crisis initiatives. Nonetheless, with a large number of TF projects, there is scope for consolidation and greater selectivity. IFC made a total net commitment of US$50 million for its core operation of long-term loans and equity investments, mainly in the financial and oil, gas and mining sectors. v. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the ten objectives, eight were rated achieved or mostly achieved, and two were rated partially achieved. In Focus Area I (Economic Transformation), there was good progress in increasing access to electricity (both urban and rural population), improving access to all season roads by the rural population and increasing access to internet services. There was also progress towards improving management and productivity in agriculture, forestry and fishery. However, there was no progress in improving the reliability of electricity services and limited progress in improving the enabling environment and increasing access to finance for SMEs. In Focus Area II (Human Development), there was progress in improving the learning conditions and management capacity in basic education, strengthening capacity of health service delivery, and improving protection of poor and vulnerable households. However, there was a mismatch between the broad objectives and limited project indicators under Objectives 7 and 8. In the case of Objective 8, the numerical target was achieved, but it does not inform that the broad objective was achieved. In Focus Area III (Governance and Public Institutions), there was good progress in consolidating and digitizing land records and in establishing the institutional framework for improving land administration. Based on PEFA scores in 2016, there has not been an improvement in the selected CPS results indicators for public financial management from the PEFA scores in 2012; however, there were improvements in other PFM dimensions. vi. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. The CPS focus areas and objectives were well aligned with the Government’s Agenda for Transformation with a strong focus on infrastructure. The program was selective and focused, building on the WBG’s comparative advantage and division of labor with other development partners in supporting the government’s agenda. The mix of instruments was appropriate, with DPF supporting major policy and institutional reforms and IPF operations focusing on infrastructure investment and capacity building. ASA informed lending operations and policy dialogue as well as contributed to capacity building. There were, however, some shortcomings. First, absent a PLR, the Bank failed to reflect the adjustments to the original CPS program in response to the EVD crisis. Second, there were some weaknesses in the results framework, including a mismatch between broad objectives and project level indicators, and indicators that did not adequately measure the stated objectives. Third, a large number of small trust funded operations could have been consolidated and their links to the CPS objectives strengthened. vii. In coordination with other development partners, the WBG responded to the EVD crisis with a two-pronged approach (both short-term and medium-term) using different instruments (emergency operations, restructuring of ongoing operations, and budget support) and sources of financing (IDA, CRW, and TF). In terms of short-term measures, the Bank responded through a regional emergency operation including Guinea and Sierra Leone to control the outbreak, provide essential supplies and services and mitigate the impact of the EVD crisis on vulnerable groups. At the same time, the Bank supported medium term efforts and provided post crisis support, including mitigating adverse impact on vulnerable groups, strengthening the health system, supporting rehabilitation efforts, and expanding access to clean water. There was strong coordination with For Official Use Only CLR Review 3 Independent Evaluation Group donors in several areas, including with the IMF with respect to macroeconomic program, and with other donors through co-financing. Internally, WB and IFC had complementary activities, with joint work on developing a private sector strategy. Liberia’s portfolio performance was comparable with AFR and Bank-wide performance. On safeguards, there was no request for investigation to the Inspection Panel. During the CPS period, INT received eight complaints of which two were investigated and substantiated. viii. The CLR Review agrees with the CLR lessons: (i) ensure government’s strong commitment to the CPF program through close alignment with the country’s development plans; (ii) adapt and apply a sound post-conflict and fragile country lens in the design of CPF programs for post conflict countries; (iii) keep an eye on medium-term goals even in the face of a crisis such as EVD; (iv) being selective about cross-cutting themes and including outcomes associated with these themes helps maintain the Government’s and Country Team’s focus on them throughout implementation. ix. IEG provides the following additional lessons: • Flexibility of the CPS program enabled the WBG to respond to the EVD crisis in a timely manner. The Bank used the IDA Crisis Response Window (CRW) to support a regional emergency operation (including Guinea and Sierra Leone) and its Additional Financing, followed by post crisis initiatives in the areas of health, education, social safety nets, and infrastructure. Complementary support was also provided through the PRSDPO and through the restructuring of the health component of the program. In the case of IFC, the Ebola Emergency Liquidity Facility was provided as an immediate response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, including Liberia. Through IFC’s Financial Institutions Group platforms, IFC provided its clients in West Africa much needed liquidity for their working capital to maintain trade flows, support employment, and restore supplies of key goods and services. • Trust Fund (TF) activities need to have a well-articulated strategic focus and explicit selectivity filters to ensure that they contribute to the achievement of CPS objectives. In the case of Liberia, the TF activities are dispersed with 33 TF supported activities of which 24 are under $5 million. While the new commitments supported several objectives (e.g. those related to health and governance), and augmented IDA resources (through additional financing to IPF operations or supplemental financing to PRSDPO), several activities had weak links to the CPS objectives and were not incorporated in the results framework. In addition, the large number of small TF projects may strain limited implementation capacity. 4. Strategic Focus Relevance of the WBG Strategy: 1. Congruence with Country Context and Country Program. Liberia is a post conflict country whose GDP had been growing an average annual rate of 6.2 percent during 2003-2013. However, there was a slowdown in GDP growth during 2013-2017 resulting from the two shocks caused by the EVD crisis and drop in commodity prices. After declining from 64 percent to 54 percent during 2007-2013, the poverty rate increased to 61 percent in the first half of 2016. 2 The GINI Index was 33 in 2014 compared to 37 in 2007. Liberia ranks 181 out of 189 countries in the 2018 Human Development Index. Key development challenges included large infrastructure gaps, poor education and health indicators, a large youth cohort, lack of economic diversification, and weak public institutions. To address these challenges, the government, supported by the donor community, developed the Agenda for Transformation (AfT) covering the period 2013-2018, with four pillars: (i) peace, justice, security, and rule of law; (ii) economic transformation; (iii) human development; and (iv) governance and public institutions. The WBG CPS supported pillars (ii) to (iv). With the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) epidemic during 2014-2016, the WBG responded to the crisis with an emergency regional operation and its Additional Financing, budget support, and targeted post-crisis support in health, education, social safety net, and infrastructure. At the same time the WBG 2 World Bank Group. 2018. Liberia Systematic Country Diagnostic. Washington D.C. For Official Use Only CLR Review 4 Independent Evaluation Group continued to implement the core components of the original CPS program. 2. Relevance of Design. The CPS program comprised ten objectives to address key development challenges in the country and in line with the government’s priorities. WBG used a mix of instruments: a programmatic DPF series to support policy and institutional reforms while IPF focused on investments and capacity building. TFs complemented IDA funds and contributed to addressing infrastructure gaps, providing post EVD crisis support, and improving land administration and public financial management. ASA informed lending operations and policy dialogue as well as contributed to capacity building. During the EVD crisis, the Bank made extensive use of the CRW to finance the EVD emergency operation and its additional financing, and to augment two DPF operations. The design of the program as well as the specific interventions took into account the activities of other donors to ensure coordination, for example through the Liberia Reconstruction Trust Fund. Internally, both the WB and IFC worked to ensure synergy in several areas, including business environment and access to finance. However, TF operations were quite fragmented and some were not strongly linked to CPS objectives. In addition, some of the ESWs such as the Aggregated Biodiversity Offsets and the Enhancing Regulation of Services Trade were also weakly linked to lending operations. Selectivity 3. Given the extensive presence of development partners, the objectives were defined to reflect the specific areas where the WBG would contribute. The lending operations focused on addressing infrastructure gaps, which were major constraints to sustained growth. The focus on infrastructure was based on discussions with the government and built on previous work by WBG and in line with the work of other donors. In the governance and public institutions pillar, WB focused on strengthening public financial management and land administration while other donors supported other themes such as civil service reform and natural resource governance. In the human development pillar, the Bank focused on basic education and health service delivery in selected secondary level facilities taking into account the activities of other donors. In response to the EVD crisis, the Bank proactively restructured its ongoing health project to strengthen prevention and surveillance of diseases. Alignment 4. The CPS was aligned with the 2013 corporate twin goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. Pillar I, with its focus on infrastructure, business environment, and access to finance, would contribute to poverty reduction, mainly by addressing major constraints to growth. The agriculture related objective under Pillar I would benefit segments with higher poverty rates. Pillar II would support improved service delivery in the education and health sectors which have indicators that are lower than regional averages. In addition, one of the objectives focused on skills and employment of youth, which accounts for a large and vulnerable segment of the population. Pillar III would strengthen governance and public institutions to ensure that initiatives supporting the corporate goals are sustainable. The public financial management objective would help prepare the ground for service delivery and sustainability of government programs. 5. Development Outcome Overview of Achievement by Objective: 5. Following the Shared Approach, this review assesses the extent to which CPS objectives were achieved as reflected in the CPS results matrix. This review uses the following structure and terminology: focus areas (CPS pillars); objectives (CPS objectives); and indicators (CPS indicators). Focus Area I: Economic Transformation 6. Focus Area I had five objectives: (i) increased access to reliable and affordable energy; (ii) increased access to reliable transportation services; (iii) increased access to telecommunications services; (iv) improved management and productivity in agriculture, forestry and fisheries; and (v) For Official Use Only CLR Review 5 Independent Evaluation Group improved enabling environment and increased access to finance for Liberian Small Medium Enterprises (SMEs). 7. Objective 1: Improved access to reliable and affordable energy. The objective was supported by: the Poverty Reduction Support Development Policy Operation (PRSDPO) I-III series (FY13, FY15, FY17) and its Supplemental Financing (FY16, FY17); the Electricity System Enhancement Project (FY11) and its Additional Financing (FY12); the Accelerated Electricity Expansion Project (FY13) and its Additional Financing (FY15); and the Renewable Energy Access Project (FY16). This objective had three indicators: • People in urban and rural areas provided with access to electricity (by number of connections, from 14,270 in 2012 to 50,000 in 2017). The ICRR for the Electricity System Enhancement Project reported additional 42,000 electricity connections in Monrovia as of May 2017, and the ICR reported 79,000 individuals (equivalent to about 25,000 connections) in rural areas as of May 2017; or a total of 67,000 connections. Achieved • Reduction in cost of electricity (from 0.55 USD/kwh in 2012 to 0.41 USD/kwh in 2017). The PRSDPO series supported and monitored this indicator. The PRSDPO III series Supplemental reports that electricity tariff was reduced to 0.39 USD/kwh in February 2017. Achieved • Reduction in system average interruption frequency index (SAIFI) for customers in Monrovia (from 20 per month to 15 per month). The ICR for the Electricity System Enhancement Project reported that SAIFI was at 20 per month as of May 2017. Not Achieved 8. The CPS targets for increased access to electricity and reduction in cost of electricity were achieved. In addition, based on WB WDI, access to electricity (percent of total population) increased from 9.8 percent in 2013 to 19.8 percent in 2016, with access of urban population doubling from 16.4 percent to 34 percent. However, reliability of electricity services did not improve. On balance, IEG rates Objective 1 as Mostly Achieved. 9. Objective 2: Increased access to reliable transportation services. The objective was supported by the Liberia Road Asset Management Project (LIBRAMP) (FY11) and its Additional Financing (FY13); the Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project (FY10) and its Additional Financing (FY14); and the Agricultural and Development Project ERL (FY08) and its Additional Financing (FY09). This objective had four indicators: • Share of rural population with access to an all season road (from five percent in 2012 to 10 percent in 2017). The June 2018 ISR for LRAMP reported that the share of rural population with access to all season roads was 11 percent as of September 2017. Achieved • Roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads (from 15 percent in 2012 to 35 percent in 2017). The June 2018 ISR of the LIBRAMP reported that roads in good and fair condition as a share of total classified roads was 33.7 percent as of September 2017. Achieved • Travel time along major corridors: (i) Monrovia to Guinea border, from 12 hours in 2012 to six hours in 2017; (ii) Monrovia to Buchanan, from five hours in 2012 to three hours in 2017. None of the Bank interventions including the FY11 operation monitored and reported on the reduction in travel time between Monrovia and the Guinea border. The ICRR for the FY10 project reported reduction in travel time from Monrovia to Buchanan by 55 minutes in 2017. Partially Achieved. • Share of qualified national staff in key competency areas at central level in the transport sector (from 10 percent in 2012 to 75 percent in 2017). The June 2018 ISR for the LIBRAMP reported that the share of qualified national staff was at 50 percent as of September 2017. Mostly Achieved 10. The indicators do not adequately measure the stated CPS objective. For instance, access to all season roads and quality of road conditions contribute to, but do not measure access to reliable For Official Use Only CLR Review 6 Independent Evaluation Group transportation services. Hence, there is a mismatch between the stated objective and the outcome measurement. On balance, IEG rates Objective 2 as Mostly Achieved. 11. Objective 3: Increased access to telecommunications services. This objective was supported by the West Africa Regional Communications Infrastructure Project (WARCIP)(FY10) and the Developing Broadband and ICT Applications TA (FY14). This objective had two indicators: • Access to internet services (from 1.7 in 2012 to 3.0 subscribers per 100 people in 2017). The ICRR for the WARCIP (FY10) reported 30.8 subscribers per 100 people as of September 2016. Achieved • Volume of available international capacity for international communications (from 0.07 in 2012 to 1.12 Gbit/s in 2017). The ICRR for the WARCIP reported 6.5 Gbit/s as of September 2016. Achieved 12. IEG rates Objective 3 as Achieved. 13. Objective 4: Improved management and productivity in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries. The objective was supported by the West Africa Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP) (FY11), the Small Tree Crop Revitalization Support Project (STCRSP) (FY12), the West Africa Regional Fisheries Program (WARFP) (FY09), and the REDD Readiness Preparation Support Project (FY12). This objective had five indicators: • Area under new technologies under the WAAPP (from 0 in 2012 to 72,000 hectares in 2017). The June 2018 ISR of the WAAPP reported 102,729 hectares used new technologies as of December 2018. Achieved • Area of smallholder tree crop farms rehabilitated, replanted or planted under STCRSP from 2012 to 2017 (from 0 to 3,700 hectares for rehabilitation; 1,250 hectares for replanting: and 850 hectares for new planting). The January 2018 ISR for the STCRSP reported 4,189 hectares were rehabilitated, 1,109 hectares were replanted, and 530 hectares were newly planted as of December 2017. Mostly Achieved • Total annual net economic benefits from targeted fisheries (from USD 3.5 million in 2012 to USD 8 million in 2017). This indicator was dropped from the WARFP. Not Achieved • Cocoa farmers organizations strengthened (from 0 in 2012 to 43 organizations in 2017). The June 2018 ISR for the STCRSP reported 119 organizations had been strengthened as of December 2017. Achieved • Fishing vessels observed by aerial/surface patrol or by radar and satellite monitoring that are committing a serious infraction in targeted areas (from 45 in 2012 to 35 percent in 2017). The ICR for the WARFP reported 30 percent of fishing vessels committed serious infractions. Achieved • National REDD+ strategy is prepared and validated by national stakeholders by 2017. The Grant Reporting and Monitoring Report of the FY12 project indicated that National REDD+ Strategy was prepared and validated at the national level by November 2016. Achieved 14. The selected indicators are incomplete measures of the stated objective which has two dimensions: management and productivity in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. The first two indicators do not sufficiently measure agricultural productivity, but are intermediate results that could to lead to improved productivity. The third indicator which presumably would measure the economic benefits from the sector was dropped. Additional information from WDI shows a 2.6 percent increase in average cereal yield between 2013 and 2016 which may due to efforts to improve productivity under the WAPP. On balance, IEG rates Objective 4 as Mostly Achieved. 15. Objective 5: Improved enabling environment and increased access to finance for Liberian SMEs. The objective was supported by several Advisory Services (AS) by IFC including the following: AS Liberia Investment Climate Project (FY11), AS SME Lending Project (FY14), AS Liberia For Official Use Only CLR Review 7 Independent Evaluation Group Secured Transactions and Collateral Registries Project (FY13). A TF project – Land Sector Reforms: Rehabilitation and Reform of Land Rights and Related Land Matters (FY10) – also supported this objective. WB and IFC jointly delivered the TA product on PSD Strategy (FY16). In addition, several WB TA contributed to the objective: Capital Market Strategy (FY13), NBFI Regulatory and Supervision Framework (FY14), and Financial Sector Development Implementation Plan (FY17). This objective had three indicators: • Domestic for profit businesses registered on the Ministry of Commerce’s Liberian Business Registry (excluding NGOs, branches/subsidiaries, foreign corporations, and foundations), from 6,171 in 2012 to 8,000 in 2017 of which 32 percent are owned by women. The Ministry of Commerce reported that 8,230 businesses (excluding NGOs and foreign companies) were registered. However, there was no data on registered businesses owned by women. It is also not clear whether the data refers to SMEs. Partially Achieved • Total commercial loans given to firms (from USD 216 million in 2012 to USD 500 million in 2017 of which 25 percent are to businesses owned by women). The Central Bank of Liberia reported USD 422 million of outstanding loans as of June 2017. There was no data on loans to women owned businesses. This information also does not specify whether the loans were provided to SMEs. Mostly Achieved • Annual investment within three years of completion of IFC investment climate reform project by local and international firms (from USD 71 million in 2012 to USD 91 million in 2017). No annual investment was reported. The climate reform project was completed only in April 2017 due to two extensions. Not Achieved 16. There is a weak link between the objective and knowledge products supporting this objective. Notwithstanding several knowledge products, the three indicators are insufficient measures for the stated objective. In particular, the indicators do not specify whether the loans were provided to SMEs and to women businesses. On balance, IEG rates Objective 5 as Partially Achieved. 17. On balance, IEG rates Focus Area I as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the five objectives, four were achieved or mostly achieved and one was partially achieved. There was good progress in increasing access to electricity (both urban and rural population), improving access to all season road by the rural population and increasing access to internet services. There was also progress towards improving management and productivity in agriculture, forestry and fishery by increasing the areas using new technologies, and rehabilitating, replanting or planting additional small tree crop farms; strengthening cocoa farmers organizations; and improving the monitoring of fishing vessels infractions. However, there was no progress in improving the reliability of electricity services and limited progress in improving the enabling environment and increasing access to finance SMEs. Three of four objectives (Objectives 2, 4 and 5) do not have adequate indicators to measure the stated objectives. Focus Area II: Human Development 18. Focus Area II had three objectives: (i) improved conditions for learning and management capacity in basic education; (ii) improved capacity of health service delivery in selected secondary level health facilities; and (iii) improved protection of poor and vulnerable households. 19. Objective 6: Improved conditions for learning and management capacity in basic education. This objective was supported by the Community Empowerment Project (FY07) and the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) Grant for Basic Education (FY11). The Education Sector Plan Development TA (FY17) also contributed to the objective. This objective had three indicators: • Children attending primary school in improved facilities as defined by technical assessment (from 4,500 in 2012 to 8,910 in 2017). The ICRR of the Community Empowerment Project reported that 8,596 children attended primary school in improved facilities as of July 2013. The outcome was achieved at the beginning of the CPS period. With 684,000 primary students in 2015, the Community Empowerment Project had limited impact. Mostly Achieved For Official Use Only CLR Review 8 Independent Evaluation Group • Students benefitting from school grant, learning materials, supplementary readers under GPE Basic Education Project (from 0 in 2012 to 591,000 in 2017 of which 44 percent are women). The ICR for the Basic Education Project reported that 483,565 children benefitted from the grant, of which 47 percent were women. Mostly Achieved • Schools single signatories to own bank account (from 0 in 2012 to 2,500 in 2017). The ICRR for the GPE Grant for Basic Education reported 2,579 single signatories as of December 2014. This indicator, together with other indicators of capacity (including school grants implemented according to guidelines), suggest that there was improved school- based management capacity. Achieved 20. On balance, IEG rates Objective 6 as Mostly Achieved. 21. Objective 7: Improved capacity of health service delivery in selected secondary level health facilities. This objective was supported by the Health System Strengthening Project (HSSP) (FY13) and its Additional Financing (FY17); and the Ebola Emergency Response Project (FY15) and its Additional Financing (FY16). The Health Financing Study (FY13) contributed to the objective. This objective had one indicator: • Knowledge score of medical residency students according to key curriculum benchmarks by HSSP (from 60 in 2012 to 75 in 2017). The September 2017 ISR for the Health System Strengthening Project reported a score of 65 as of September 2017. Partially Achieved 22. There is mismatch between the broad objective and the narrow indicator which measures progress in addressing skills and competencies of health workers. Additional information provided by the region suggests some capacity improvements in health service delivery. The October 2018 ISR for the FY13 project reported improvement in the Health Quality Facility Index 3 of targeted hospitals of 61.9 percent as of June 2018 (from a baseline of zero in April 2017). In addition, the June 2018 ISR for the FY15 project reported that the percentage of trained health workers with knowledge of Ebola and Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) increased to 93 percent in September 2017 (from zero in September 2014). On balance, IEG rates Objective 7 as Mostly Achieved. 23. Objective 8: Improved protection of poor and vulnerable households. This objective was supported by: the Youth, Employment, Skills Project (FY10); the Ebola Emergency Response Project (FY15) and its Additional Financing (FY16); the Social Safety Nets Project (FY16); and the Girls Ebola Recovery Livelihood Support Project (FY17). In addition, the ESW products Vulnerable Youth Profile Note (FY13) and Skills Development Constraints for Youth in the Informal Sector (FY16) contributed to this objective. This objective had one indicator: • Number of workdays created under the project (from 1.12 million workdays in 2012 to 1.8 million in 2017 of which 50 percent are women and 75 percent are youth). The ICRR reported that 2.3 million workdays were created with women representing 42 percent and youth 79 percent. Achieved 24. There is a mismatch between the broad program objective and the project level indicator. The achievement of numerical targets does not provide sufficient information that the protection of poor and vulnerable households had improved. The measurement of the indicator is also problematic because it refers to workdays, but there is no information on the number of poor and vulnerable households that had been reached. Additional evidence provided by the region indicates some improvements towards protecting vulnerable segments of the population. The June 2018 ISR for the FY15 project reported that 100 percent of beneficiary households received cash transfers during the EVD crisis. The ICR for the FY17 project reported that it supported 2,000 Ebola affected adolescent girls to reopen or expand their businesses following the EVD crisis. On balance, IEG rates Objective 8 as Mostly Achieved. 25. IEG rates Focus Area II as Moderately Satisfactory. The three objectives were rated mostly 3 The Index measures quality of care based on agreed indicators across key categories such as maternity, surgery, and health worker performance. For Official Use Only CLR Review 9 Independent Evaluation Group achieved. There was progress in improving the learning conditions and management capacity in basic education, strengthening capacity of health service delivery, and improving protection of poor and vulnerable households. However, there was a mismatch between the broad objectives and limited project indicators under Objectives 7 and 8. In the case of Objective 8, the numerical target was achieved, but it does not inform that the broad objective was achieved. Focus Area III: Governance and Public Institutions 26. Focus Area III had two objectives: (i) improved public financial management; and (ii) improved land administration. 27. Objective 9: Improved public financial management. This objective was supported by the Poverty Reduction Support Development Policy Operation (PRSDPO) I-III series (FY13, FY15, FY17) and its Supplemental Financing (FY16, FY17); Integrated Public Financial Management project (FY12); and the ASA products Public Expenditure Review (FY13), Public Investment Management (FY15), and Efficiency in Budget Execution (FY16). This objective had two indicators: • Extent of unreported government operations, with PEFA score improving from D+ in 2012 to B in 2017. The Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment (PEFA) 2016 on Liberia’s Public Financial Management Systems reported that the extent of unreported government operations score remained at D+ in 2016. Not Achieved • Scope, nature and follow-up of external audits, with PEFA score improving from D+ in 2012 to C+ in 2017. The PEFA 2016 reported that the score for scope, nature, and follow-up of external audits remained at D+ in 2016. Not Achieved 28. The PEFA 2016 reported that other measures of public financial management had improved compared to the PEFA 2012. The areas of improvement included budget credibility, comprehensiveness, and transparency, which were supported by the PRSDPOs. IEG rates Objective 9 as Partially Achieved. 29. Objective 10: Improve land administration. The objective was supported by the Rehabilitation and Reform of Land Rights and Related Land Matters (FY10) and the Third Reengagement and Reform Support Program (RRSP3) (FY11). This objective had one indicator: • Deed registry completion, from 0 percent in 2012 to 80 percent in 2017. The Implementation Completion Memorandum for the FY10 project reported significant progress in digitizing land records in 2014. The ICRR for the FY11 operation reported that 99 percent of deeds have been consolidated in 2016, of which 95 percent have been digitized. Achieved 30. Liberia ranked 183 out of 190 in registering property in DB 2018 with a decline in DTF score for registering property from 39.6 in DB 2015 to 31.0 in DB 2018. Nonetheless, there has been progress in establishing the institutional framework for improving land administration with the establishment of the Liberia Land Authority in 2014 and the enactment of the Land Rights Act in 2018. On balance, IEG rates Objective 10 as Achieved. 31. IEG rates Focus Area III as Moderately Unsatisfactory. Of the two objectives, one was achieved and the other was partially achieved. There was good progress in consolidating and digitizing land records and in establishing the institutional framework for improving land administration. Based on PEFA scores, there has not been an improvement in the selected indicators for public financial management (PFM). However, other measures of PFM suggest some improvements. Overall Assessment and Rating 32. IEG rates the CPS development outcome as Moderately Satisfactory. Of the ten objectives, eight were achieved or mostly achieved, and two were partially achieved. In Focus Area I, there was good progress in increasing access to electricity (both urban and rural population), improving access to all season roads by the rural population and increasing access to internet services. There was also progress towards improving management and productivity in agriculture, For Official Use Only CLR Review 10 Independent Evaluation Group forestry and fishery. However, there was no progress in improving the reliability of electricity services and limited progress in improving the enabling environment and increasing access to finance for SMEs. In Focus Area II, there was progress in improving the learning conditions and management capacity in basic education, strengthening capacity of health service delivery, and improving protection of poor and vulnerable households. However, there was a mismatch between the broad objectives and limited project indicators under Objectives 7 and 8. In the case of Objective 8, the numerical target was achieved, but it does not inform that the broad objective was achieved. In Focus Area III, there was good progress in consolidating and digitizing land records and in establishing the institutional framework for improving land administration. Based on PEFA scores in 2016, there has not been an improvement in the selected CPS indicators for public financial management compared to 2012, although there were improvements in other PFM dimensions. Objectives CLR Rating IEG Rating Focus Area I: Economic Transformation Moderately Satisfactory Objective 1: Improved access to reliable and affordable energy Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 2: Increased access to reliable transportation services Achieved Mostly Achieved Objective 3: Increased access to telecommunications services Achieved Achieved Objective 4: Improvement management and productivity in Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved agriculture, forestry, and fisheries Objective 5: Improved enabling environment and increased Partially Achieved Partially Achieved access to finance for Liberian SMEs Focus Area II: Human Development Moderately Satisfactory Objective 6: Improved conditions for learning and management Mostly Achieved Mostly Achieved capacity in basic education Objective 7: Improved capacity of health service delivery in Not Rated Mostly Achieved selected secondary level health facilities Objective 8: Improved protection of poor and vulnerable Achieved Mostly Achieved households Moderately Focus Area III: Governance and Public Institutions Unsatisfactory Objective 9: Improved public financial management Not Achieved Partially Achieved Objective 10: Improve land administration Achieved Achieved 6. WBG Performance Lending and Investments 33. At the start of CPS period, IDA commitments amounted to $351 million consisting of 19 Investment Project Financing (IPF) operations, including three regional operations. Ninety percent of the commitments were in infrastructure (66 percent) and agriculture (24 percent). During the CPS period, total new IDA commitments reached $508 million comprising 13 IPF including one regional operation and three Additional Financing; and four DPF including two supplemental financing. Infrastructure accounted for 43 percent in line with the focus of the CPS, followed by EVD crisis For Official Use Only CLR Review 11 Independent Evaluation Group response (36 percent) The IDA Crisis Response Window (CRW) supported the EVD emergency operations and provided supplemental financing for Poverty Reduction Support Development Policy Operations (PRSDPO) II and III. New TF commitments during the CPS period totaled 178 million, or the equivalent of 33 operations, of which 24 were under $5 million. Most of the new TF commitments complemented infrastructure operations, and supported post EVD crisis initiatives. Nonetheless, with a large number of TF projects, there is scope for consolidation and greater selectivity. 34. Liberia’s overall portfolio performance at exit (measured by outcomes rated MS or better by IEG) performed better than AFR and Bank-wide averages terms of volume of commitments and number of operations. Of the ten operations totaling $265 million that exited during the CPS period and validated by IEG, 96 percent by volume of commitments were rated MS or better compared to AFR (76 percent) and Bank-wide (85 percent) averages. The two projects rated MU were in human development and governance and had shortcomings in project design and implementation. Five infrastructure projects were rated MS or better. Seven of the closed projects had high or significant risk to development outcome rating. Weak institutional capacities and financial sustainability were recurring themes in the assessment of risks to development outcomes. 35. During the CPS period, Liberia’s project at risk (17 percent) was lower than AFR (26 percent) and Bank-wide (24 percent) averages. Liberia’s commitment at risk (26 percent) was lower than AFR (33 percent) but marginally higher than Bank-wide (23 percent) averages. Liberia’s disbursement ratio (22 percent) was comparable with the AFR (22 percent) and Bank-wide (21 percent) averages. The EVD crisis affected the implementation of projects, including the desertion or abandonment of workers in some project sites, which contributed to implementation delays and resulted in the extension of closing dates of some projects (for example, the Smallholder Tree Crop Revitalization Support Project) and cost overruns (for example the Liberia Road Asset Management Project), and may affect their overall outcomes at exit. Going forward, the impact of the EVD crisis on the implementation of active operations could put greater pressure on the portfolio of the next CPF. The large number of small TF could further strain limited implementation capacity. 36. During the CPS period, IFC made a total net commitment of $49.8 million for its core operation of long-term loans and equity investments mainly in the financial and oil, gas and mining sectors. During the review period, IFC’s total average outstanding short-term commitments under its short-term trade finance guarantee amounted to $38.1 million. IFC leveraged its existing relationships with its banking sector clients to offer financing, including during the difficult time after the EVD crisis. In November 2014, IFC approved the Ebola Emergency Liquidity Facility (EELF), as one of the IFC’s immediate response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, including Liberia. Through IFC’s Financial Institutions Group (FIG) platforms, IFC provided its clients in West Africa much needed liquidity for their working capital to maintain trade flows, thereby, supporting employment, and restoring supplies of key goods and services. During the review period, IEG did not validate any Expanded Project Supervision Reports (XPSRs) of IFC investment project. 37. MIGA did not underwrite any political risk guarantees during the review period. Analytic and Advisory Activities and Services 38. During the CPS period, the Bank delivered 37 ASA products, of which 12 were economic and sector work (ESW) and 25 were technical assistance. The majority of the ESW were in human development (33 percent); macroeconomics, trade, and investment (33 percent); and governance (17 percent). The ESW informed government policy and strategy, but generally had weak links to lending operations with the notable exception of the youth skills ESW, which was an input to the Youth, Employment, Skills Project. There was no ESW focusing on agriculture, although two key products in the sector were planned in the CPS. In addition, a planned Poverty Assessment did not materialize. The TA products covered several areas (macroeconomic issues, infrastructure, human development, governance, and financial sector) with some products linked to future projects in areas of social safety net, water supply, and education. Some TAs resulted in demand for further TA support, notably in the areas of debt management, budget management, and financial sector development. The work on youth employment resulted in a request for a programmatic TA, and the TA on PSD strategy enabled the counterparts to contact donors for implementation and capacity For Official Use Only CLR Review 12 Independent Evaluation Group building support. Based on WB monitoring reports, about 64 percent of TA supported capacity building. 39. During the review period, IFC approved twelve new AS projects amounting to $11.3 million of IFC funds. IFC offered its technical assistance to a wide range of areas, including business regulations, trade logistics, leasing, SME development, Insolvency courts and debt recovery. Some of the AS projects were a part of regional West Africa projects. Through the AS engagements, IFC supported Liberia to improve its enabling environment for private businesses; however, the Ebola crisis had significant adverse effects on the Liberian economy, and the Doing Business ranking dropped significantly as stated in CLR. IEG did not validate any Project Completion Reports (PCRs) of AS projects during the review period. Results Framework 40. The results framework provided a clear line of sight from the country development objectives and development challenges, to the CPS objectives and outcomes and the WBG interventions. Furthermore, the results framework included some indicators of the CPS cross-cutting themes, including capacity development and gender equality. It also identified other donors working in areas supported by the WB. While the results framework was not revised to take into account the WBG response to the EVD crisis, it remained relevant with respect to the CPS program. However, the RF had a number of shortcomings. First, there were mismatches between the objectives and indicators. For instance, the indicators for Objective 4 (improved management and productivity in agriculture, forestry, and fisheries) did not provide adequate measures of the stated objective, but rather intermediate results that could contribute to increased productivity and improved management. Another example was Objective 2 (increased access to reliable transportation services) which had indicators related to road access but not to reliable transportation services. Objectives 9 and 10 had broad objectives with narrow or single indicators. Objective 9 used PEFA indicators, which are composite measures, and could have been augmented with other indicators with strong links to WB interventions. Second, there was a weak link between WBG knowledge products and indicators. This is particularly the case for Objective 5 (improved enabling environment and increased access to finance for SMEs). All three indicators did not measure the stated objective and did not provide explicit references to the target beneficiaries of women owned businesses and SMEs. Partnerships and Development Partner Coordination 41. The WBG had strong coordination with development partners. Liberia is heavily dependent on foreign aid and the extensive presence of donors requires strong coordination. The Bank focused on infrastructure as agreed with the Government. In the social sectors where there was significant donor support, WB projects focused on strengthening institutional capacity to deliver services. The WB co-chairs the Liberian Reconstruction Trust Fund Oversight Committee whose membership include representatives from the Government of Liberia, European Union (EU), the Swedish Development Cooperation Committee (SIDA), KfW, and DFID. The PRSDPO was closely coordinated with other budget support operations from the EU and African Development Bank (AfDB) as well as with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The joint World Bank-IMF work program helps ensure coordination as well as complementarity of activities. Donors co-financed other Bank operations including the Integrated Public Financial Management Reform Project. Safeguards and Fiduciary Issues 42. Six of seven projects completed and validated by IEG during the CPS period triggered environmental and social safeguard policies in the social protection, transport, education and the resilience sectors. Safeguards performance was not discussed in the CLR. However, project ICRs and ICRRs noted compliance with the applicable policies despite operational challenges during the EVD crisis. The most reported implementation issues were related to: the absence of Environmental, Health and Safety measures on construction sites; unclear definition of roles and responsibilities in project teams; weak monitoring of safeguard instruments; absence of community level grievance redress system; and inadequate and inconsistent implementation support and oversight. Some of these problems were attributable to the desertion of project sites at the outbreak of the Ebola crisis. For Official Use Only CLR Review 13 Independent Evaluation Group Nevertheless, it is reported the Bank support with capacity building, and compensation payment helped improve operations on the ground. No request for investigation was submitted to the Inspection Panel during the CPS period. 43. During the CPS period, INT received eight complaints in the governance (2), social protection (1), education (1), health (1), transport and IT (1), and energy (2) sectors, as well as one related to an AfDB financed project. Two of the complaints were investigated and substantiated. Ownership and Flexibility 44. The CPS was aligned with the Government’s Agenda for Transformation and reflected the agreement between the Bank and Government on the role of the WBG in supporting the government’s agenda. The emphasis of the CPS on reducing infrastructure gaps responded to the request of the Government. The CPS exhibited flexibility in responding to the EVD crisis during 2014- 2016 by providing emergency support and restructuring the health component of the program towards preparedness for future epidemics. In addition, WB used TF to support groups that were most adversely affected by the crisis (e.g., Girls Ebola Recovery Livelihood Support), rehabilitate schools (Ebola Recovery and Rehabilitation Project), and improve access to EVD facilities (Rural Roads Emergency Project). A new IDA urban water supply operation was approved to help reduce propagation of the Ebola virus. WBG Internal Cooperation 45. There was close internal cooperation and clear division of work between WB and IFC on the business environment and access to finance. The WB and IFC produced a joint private sector development strategy to inform government policy. In the financial sector, IFC built on its global work by establishing the collateral registry system and strengthening debt resolution mechanisms, while the WB focused on improving financial supervision and developing capital markets. There were also linkages between the IFC and WB work, as in the inclusion of the collateral registry as a prior action in the PRSDPO II. Risk Identification and Mitigation 46. The CPS appropriately identified the risks and the mitigating measures. IDA projects on youth employment and land administration were to help sustain peace. Efforts to strengthen communications with and between the executive and the legislature were to mitigate political risks, although there was no indication on the scope and effectiveness of these efforts. The implementation risk due to capacity constraints and governance weaknesses was addressed in the program, through the PRSDPO and public financial management operations. The macroeconomic risks were mitigated by the IMF program with support from the DPFs and ASA products. The Bank mitigated the risk of donor fatigue through its coordination efforts, including during the EVD crisis. The risk of decline in commodity prices, which the CPS had broadly articulated, materialized on top of the EVD crisis and proved difficult to mitigate. Overall Assessment and Rating 47. IEG rates WBG performance as Good. Design 48. The CPS focus areas and objectives were well aligned with the Government’s Agenda for Transformation with a strong focus on infrastructure. The CPS program was selective and focused, building on WBG’s comparative advantage and division of labor with other donors supporting the government’s agenda. The mix of instruments was appropriate, with DPF supporting major policy and institutional reforms and IPF operations focusing on infrastructure investment and capacity building. ASA informed lending operations and policy dialogue as well as contributed to capacity building. There were, however, some shortcomings. First, absent a PLR, the Bank failed to reflect in a revised program design and results framework the adjustments to the original CPS program in response to the EVD crisis. Second, there were weaknesses in the CPS results framework, including a mismatch between broad objectives and project level indicators, and indicators that did not For Official Use Only CLR Review 14 Independent Evaluation Group adequately measure the stated objectives. Third, a large number of small trust funded operations could have been consolidated and their links to the CPS objectives strengthened. Implementation 49. In coordination with other development partners, the WBG responded to the EVD crisis with a two-pronged approach (both short-term and medium-term) using different instruments (e.g., emergency operations, restructuring of ongoing operations, and budget support) and sources of financing (e.g. IDA, CRW, and TF). In terms of short-term measures, the Bank responded through a regional emergency operation including Guinea and Sierra Leone to control the outbreak, provide essential supplies and services and mitigate the impact on vulnerable groups. At the same time, the Bank supported medium term efforts and provided post crisis support, including mitigating adverse impact on vulnerable groups, strengthening the health system, supporting rehabilitation efforts, and expanding access to clean water. There was strong coordination with donors in several areas, including with the IMF with respect to macro program, and with other donors through co-financing. Internally, WB and IFC had complementary activities, with joint work on developing a private sector strategy. Liberia’s portfolio performance was comparable with AFR and Bank-wide performance. On safeguards, there was no request for investigation to the Inspection Panel. During the CPS period, INT received eight complaints of which two were investigated and substantiated. 7. Assessment of CLR Completion Report 50. The CLR provided a succinct assessment of the achievement of program objectives. The CLR identified the increases in IDA lending attributable to the EVD outbreak. However it did not provide an assessment of WBG response, including how the EVD episode affected the priorities and focus of the program as well as the design of projects during the latter part of the CPS period. The CLR could have commented whether the results framework adequately reflected the WBG activities during the CPS period, and whether there should have been a PLR. In addition, the CLR could have been strengthened in several areas. First, given the large number and volume of commitments of TF projects, the CLR could have provided more analysis of the selectivity, links to CPS objectives, and results from the projects. Second, an assessment of the effectiveness of donor coordination would have provided useful lessons for the next CPF. Third, the CLR could have provided more insights into WB/IFC coordination, including what worked well and what could be improved. 8. Findings and Lessons 51. The CLR Review agrees with the CLR lessons: (i) ensure Government’s strong commitment to the CPF program through close alignment with the country’s development plans; (ii) adapt and apply a sound post-conflict and fragile country lens in the design of CPF programs for post conflict countries; (iii) keep an eye on medium-term goals even in the face of a crisis such as EVD; (iv) being selective about cross-cutting themes and including outcomes associated with these themes helps maintain the Government’s and Country Team’s focus on them throughout implementation. 52. IEG provides the following additional lessons: • Flexibility of the CPS program enabled the WBG to respond to the EVD crisis in a timely manner. The Bank used the IDA Crisis Response Window (CRW) to support a regional emergency operation (including Guinea and Sierra Leone) and its Additional Financing, followed by post crisis initiatives in the areas of health, education, social safety nets, and infrastructure. Complementary support was also provided through the PRSDPO and through the restructuring of the health component of the program. In the case of IFC, the Ebola Emergency Liquidity Facility was provided as an immediate response to the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, including Liberia. Through IFC’s Financial Institutions Group platforms, IFC provided its clients in West Africa much needed liquidity for their working capital to maintain trade flows, support employment, and restore supplies of key goods and services. • Trust Fund activities need to have a well-articulated strategic focus and explicit selectivity For Official Use Only CLR Review 15 Independent Evaluation Group filters to ensure that they contribute to the achievement of CPS objectives. In the case of Liberia, the TF activities are dispersed with 33 TF supported activities of which 24 are under $5 million. While the new commitments supported several objectives (e.g. those related to health and governance), and augmented IDA resources (through additional financing of IPF operations or supplemental financing to PRSDPO), several activities had weak links to the CPS objectives and were not incorporated in the results framework. In addition, the large number of small TF projects may strain limited implementation capacity. Annexes CLR Review 17 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Liberia Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Liberia, FY13-FY17 Annex Table 4: Liberia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Liberia and Comparators, FY13-FY17 Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Liberia and Comparators, FY13-FY17 Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Liberia, FY13-FY17 Annex Table 9: Net Disbursements and Charges for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance for Liberia (US$, millions) Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Liberia Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Liberia Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Liberia Annex Table 14: IFC Net Commitment Activity in Liberia, FY13 - FY17 Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Liberia, 2013-2017 Annexes CLR Review 19 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 1: Summary of Achievements of CPS Objectives – Liberia CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation 1. CPS Objective: Increased access to reliable and affordable energy. Indicator 1: People in urban and The outcome was supported by the Electricity rural areas provided with access System Enhancement Project (LESEP) to electricity (by number of (P120660, FY11) and its additional financing connections) (P129097, FY12), and two Trust Fund projects: AFREA - Catalyzing New and Baseline: 14,270 connections Renewable Energy in Rural Liberia (P118460, (2012) FY15) and GEF: Lighting Africa (P124014, Target: 50,000 connections FY12). (2017) The IEG ICRR: S for project P120660 reported that there were 42,000 electricity connections for urban households in Monrovia as of May 2017. The ICR: S for project P120660 also reported that there were an additional 79,000 individuals in rural areas that now have electricity from being connected to the grid and solar lanterns – assuming a household size of 5 persons (UN), this represents 25,030 connections in rural areas. The increase in rural connections was facilitated through the creation of the Rural and Renewable Energy Agency or Major RREA (P118460) which imported 100,000 Outcome solar lanterns, of which 76,637 were sold as Measures of May 2017. These solar lanterns and other products were funded under project P124014. In all, there was 67,030 rural and urban households with electricity connections as a result of the project. Achieved Indicator 2: Cost of Electricity. The outcome was supported by the Poverty No electricity tariff Reduction Support Development Policy reduction was Baseline: 0.55 USD/KWH (2012) Operation (PRSDPO) series (FY13, FY15, mentioned in the Target: 0.41 USD/KWH (2017) FY17) and its Supplemental Financing (FY16, project documents FY17); and the LESEP and its additional (ISR June 2017) as financing. claimed in the CLR. The Systematic The PRSDPO III series Supplemental reports Country Diagnostic that electricity tariff was reduced to 0.39 report of the World USD/kwh in February 2017. Bank for Liberia (2018) reported that Achieved with the help of international donors, including the World Bank, the Government of Liberia was able to expand electricity generation which resulted in a Annexes CLR Review 20 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation decrease of electricity tariffs. By October 2017, tariffs fell to 0.35 USD/KWH. The outcome was supported by the LESEP Indicator 3: System Average and its additional financing. Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI) for customers in Monrovia The IEG ICRR: S indicated that by project (Number/month). closure (May 2017), the SAIFI for the combined 66kV and the 22kV distribution Baseline: 20 (2012) networks was still at baseline at 20 Target: 15 (2017) interruptions per month. Not Achieved 2. CPS Objective: Increased access to reliable transportation services. Indicator 1: Share of rural The outcome was supported by the Liberia The CLR used a population with access to an all- Road Asset Management Project - LIBRAMP different indicator as season road (%). (P125574, FY11) and its additional financing evidence for (P129654, FY13); the Urban and Rural achieving the target. Baseline: 5 (2012) Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project – URIRP The original indicator, Target: 10 (2017) (P113099, FY10) and its additional financing as reported in the (P144435, FY14), and the Agriculture and PAD of P125574, Development Project ERL (P104716, FY08) was defined as rural and its additional financing (P117019, FY09). population with access to an all- The June 2018 ISR: S of project P125574 season road as a indicated that as of September 2017, the share of total rural share of the rural population with access to population. all-season roads is 11%. Achieved Indicator 2: Roads in good and The outcome was supported by the LIBRAMP A spatial analysis fair condition as a share of total and its additional financing and the Urban and conducted by the classified roads (%). Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project and World Bank (Table its additional financial. 2.2, p9, 2018) Baseline: 15 (2012) showed that over Target: 35 (2017) The June 2018 ISR: S of LIBRAMP indicated 45% of classified that as of September 2017, roads in good and roads were fair condition as a share of total classified considered fair or roads is at 33.7%. Additionally, the IEG ICRR: better. S of URIRP reported that city streets in good and fair condition in Monrovia is on target at 35%. Achieved Indicator 3: Travel time along The outcome was supported by the LIBRAMP The ICRR IEG: MS of major corridors: and its additional financing, the Urban and project P104716 Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project and reported that Baseline: Monrovia to Guinea its additional financing and the Agriculture substantial amount of border – 12, Monrovia to and Development Project ERL and its project funding was Buchanan – 5 hours. (2012) additional financing. targeted toward the Target: Monrovia to Guinea -6 Monrovia-Buchanan Annexes CLR Review 21 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation hours, Monrovia to Buchanan - 3 The June 2018 ISR: S of LIBRAMP only had corridor but the hours. (2017) an indicator for transport costs (measured in project did not terms of roughness reduction, IRI rate) which monitor the outcome used the monetary value of travel time as an using travel time as input from Monrovia to Guinea border. The an indicator. transport costs were reduced from a baseline of 12 to less than 3 in September 2017. The IEG ICRR: S of URIRP reported that the travel time from Cotton Tree (Monrovia) to Buchanan was reduced to 55 minutes. The WBG projects’ documents do not permit the verification of travel times as reported in the CLR: Monrovia to Guinea corridor reduced to 5hrs and Monrovia to Buchanan corridor travel reduced to 2 hr. Partially Achieved Indicator 4: Transportation - The outcome was supported by the LIBRAMP Capacity-development/gender - and its additional financing. Share of qualified national staff in key competency areas at central The June 2018 ISR: S of project P125574 level in the transport sector (% ). reported that the share of qualified national staff is at 50% as of September 2017. Baseline: 10 (2012) Mostly Achieved Target: 75 (2017) 3. CPS Objective: Increased access to telecommunications services. Indicator 1: Access to Internet The outcome was supported by the West Services (number of subscribers Africa Regional Communications per 100 people). Infrastructure Project - WARCIP (P116273, FY10). Baseline: 1.7 (2012) Target: 3 (2017) The IEG ICRR: MS of project P11673 reported that access to internet services grew from 1.5 to 30.8 subscribers per 100 people at project close (June 2017). Achieved Indicator 2: Volume of available The outcome was supported by the WARCIP. The CLR reported international capacity: that 35 Kbits/s per International Communications The IEG ICRR: MS reported that the volume person was achieved (Internet, Telecoms, and Data) of available international capacity for as evidence for this bandwidth (Gbit/s). international communications increased from indicator (target of 0.07 to 6.5 as of September 2016. 40). However, this is Baseline: 0.07 (2012) Achieved a different indicator Target: 1.12 (2017) from the CPS indicator. 4. CPS Objective: Improved management and productivity in agriculture, forestry and fisheries Indicator 1: Area under new The outcome was supported by the West technologies by WAAPP (ha). Africa Agricultural Productivity Program APL - WAAPP-1C (P122065, FY11). Baseline: 0 (2012) Annexes CLR Review 22 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation Target: 72,000 (2017) The June 2018 ISR: S indicated that 102,749 ha were under improved technologies for Liberia as of December 2016. Achieved Indicator 2: Area of smallholder The outcome was supported by the tree crop farms rehabilitated, Smallholder Tree Crop Revitalization Support replanted or planted under Project - STCRSP (P113273, FY12). STCRSP (ha). The January 2018 ISR: MS reported that the Baseline: 0 (2012) area of smallholder tree crop farms were Target: Rehabilitation 3,700, 4,189 ha. for rehabilitation, 1,109 ha. for Replanting 1,250, New Planting replanting, and 530 Ha. for new planting as of 850. (2017) December 2017. Mostly Achieved Indicator 3: Total annual net The outcome was supported by the West economic benefits from targeted Africa Regional Fisheries Program (P106063, fisheries (USD). FY09) Baseline: 3.9 million USD (2012) Target: 8 million USD (2017) The indicator was dropped in FY17.The CLR reported that the Project team has carried out different evaluations using Fishery Performance Indicators to show economic, ecological and social improvement in the sector (Input from Fisheries team P106063, Nov 2017). Consequently, no ISR document of project P106063 was able to report on outcomes for this indicator before it was dropped. Not Achieved Indicator 4: Agriculture - The outcome was supported by the STCRSP. Capacity-development/gender - Cocoa Farmers Organizations The January 2018 ISR: MS of STCRSP (FOs) strengthened (number). reported that as of December 2017 119 Cocoa Farmers Organizations had been Baseline: 0 (2012) strengthened. Target: 43 (2017) Achieved Indicator 5: Agriculture - The outcome was supported by the West Capacity-development/gender - Africa Regional Fisheries Program. Fishing vessels observed by aerial/surface patrol or by radar Management ICR: MS reported that only 30% and satellite monitoring that are of fishing vessels in Liberia have committed committing a serious infraction in serious infractions in 2016 – compared to the targeted fisheries (%). 83% of vessels without license in 2007. Achieved Baseline: 45 (2012) Target: 33 (2017) Indicator 6: National REDD+ The outcome was supported by the Liberia- The CLR cited the strategy is prepared and validated FCPF REDD READINESS (P124073, FY12). ICR of P124073 as by national stakeholders (yes/no). indicating that the The GRM of project P124073 indicated that REDD+ strategy has Baseline: No (2012) National REDD+ Strategy was prepared and been validated. Target: Yes (2017) validated at the national level by November However, IEG could Annexes CLR Review 23 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation 2016. This included consultations with not locate the ICR for stakeholders. The Aid Memoire of project P124073. P124073 reported that the National Climate Change Steering Committee (NCCSC) endorsed the national REDD+ strategy in June 2017. Achieved 5. CPS Objective: Improved enabling environment and increased access to finance for Liberian SMEs. Indicator 1: Domestic for-profit The AAA projects Capital Market Strategy businesses registered on the and Regulation (P125294, FY13) and Non- Ministry of Commerce’s Liberian bank financial institutions regulation and Business Registry (excluding supervision Framework (P126368, FY14) - NGOs, branches/ subsidiaries, for which no WBG documents were found that foreign corporations and monitored this indicator. foundations) (% of which are owned by women). The Ministry of Commerce of Liberia (2016) reported that 10,759 businesses registered, of Baseline: 6,171 (32%) (2012) which 4,839 are female owners (44.9%) from Target: 8,000 (32%) (2017) January 2, 2016 to December 31, 2016. However, these included NGOs and foreign companies. The total number of registered project after adjustment was 8,230 for calendar year 2016. There is no number reported for female business owners excluding NGOs and foreign companies. Partially Achieved Indicator 2: Total commercial The IFC AS project ABL SME lending The Central Bank of bank loans given to firms (USD) (599769, FY14) and the Liberia Secured Liberia's monthly (% of which are given to women). Transactions and Collateral Registries project report showed that (592597, FY13) contributed to the outcome there was 47.7 billion Baseline: 216 million USD (2012) indicator. Liberian dollars or Target: 500 million USD (25%) $421.6 million USD (2017) The PCR of project 599769 reported that as of outstanding of June 2016 $25.9 million loans were commercial bank disbursed by ABL, of which $10.5 million were loans for June 2017 disbursed to women (40%). The PCR EvNote (using exchange rate of project 599769 reported that loans of 113.13 Liberian disbursed by December 2017 is $33.5 million. dollars per US dollar The supervision report of project 592597 for June 2017). indicated that $136.1 million in financing were facilitated to SMEs with $1.6 million being facilitated to women (1.1%). Based on available IFC documents, the total number of loans was $195.5 million with $12.1 million disbursed to women. Mostly Achieved Indicator 3: Amount invested The outcome is supported by the IFC AS within 3 years of completion of Liberia IC AS3 (577647, FY11). IFC investment climate reform project by local and international The implementation period of project 577647 firms. was from 07/01/2011 - 04/30/2017 and the Annexes CLR Review 24 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area I: Actual Results IEG Comments Economic Transformation PCR for the project was published in FY18. Baseline: 71 million USD (2012) There was no investment reported to date Target: 91 million USD (2017) given the insufficient time between project completion in 2017, the measurement window (3 years), and the end of the CPS period in 2017. Not Achieved CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Human Development 6. CPS Objective: Improved conditions for learning and management capacity in basic education. Indicator 1: Children attending This outcome was supported by the Community primary school in ‘improved’ Empowerment Project II - CEPSII (P105683, facilities as defined by technical FY07). assessment (number). The IEG ICRR: MS reported that 8,596 children Baseline: 4,590 (2012) attended primary school in 30 improved Target: 8,910 (2017) facilities as of July 2013. Mostly Achieved Indicator 2: Education - This outcome was supported by the Global The IEG ICRR: MS of Capacity-development/gender - Partnership for Education Grant for Basic project P11762 did Grade 1-9 students benefitting Education (P117662, FY11). not report on the from school grant, learning outcome indicator. materials, supplementary The outcome indicator target was reduced readers under GPE_BEP X during project restructuring in FY15 to 430,000, number, of which are female of which 44% should be female. The ICR:MS (%). (FY17) reported that 483,565 students benefited from the grant, of which 47% are Baseline: 0 (0%) (2012) female. Major Target: 591,000 (44%) (2017) Mostly Achieved Outcome Indicator 3: Education - This outcome was supported by the Global Measures Capacity-development/gender - Partnership for Education Grant for Basic Schools single signatories to Education. own bank account (number). The ICRR: MS reported that, as of December Baseline: 0 (2012) 2014, 2,579 schools were single signatories to Target: 2,500 (2017) their own bank accounts. Achieved 7. CPS Objective: Improved capacity of health service delivery in selected secondary-level health facilities. Indicator 1: Health - Capacity- This outcome was supported by: the Health Additional information development/gender - Systems Strengthening Project - HSSP provided by the Knowledge score of medical (P128909, FY13) and its additional financing region indicates residency students according to (P162477, FY17); and the Ebola Emergency some improvements key curriculum benchmarks by Response Project (P152359, FY15) and its in capacity for health HSSP. additional financing (P152980, FY16). service delivery. The October 2018 ISR for Baseline: 60 (2012) The indicator was dropped during project the Liberia Health Target: 75 (2017) restructuring (PAD of project P162477) in Systems January 2017. The September 2016 ISR: MS of Strengthening Project project P128909 last measured the indicator (P128909) reported and showed that the knowledge score of that the Health Annexes CLR Review 25 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area II: Actual Results IEG Comments Human Development medical resident students was at 65 as of Facility Quality Index September 2016. score for targeted Partially Achieved hospitals improved from a baseline of 0 in April 2017 to 61.9 percent in June 2018. The June 2018 ISR for the Ebola Emergency Response Project (P15235) reported that percentage of trained health workers with knowledge of Ebola and Infection Prevention and Control (IPC) increased from baseline of 0 in September 2014 to 93 percent in September 2017. 8. CPS Objective: Improved protection of poor and vulnerable households. Indicator 1: Social Protection - This outcome was supported by: the Youth, Additional information Capacity-development/gender - Employment, Skills Project - YES (P121686, provided by the Number of work days created FY10); the Ebola Emergency Response Project region indicates under YES (number) (P152359, FY15) and its additional financing some improvements (disaggregated by gender, (P152980, FY16); and the Girls Ebola Recovery in the protection of youth). Livelihood Support Project (P159493, FY17). vulnerable groups. The ICR for a small Baseline: 1.12 million (50% IEG ICRR: MU reported that 2,337,500 work grant supporting Girls women, 65% youth) (2012) days were created as of June 2016. The youth Ebola Recovery Target: 1.8 million (50% represented 79% of participants and women Livelihood Support women, 75% youth) (2017) represented 42%. Project reported that Achieved it supported 2,000 Ebola affected adolescent girls to reopen or expand their businesses. The June 2018 ISR for the Ebola Emergency Response Project reported that 100% of beneficiary households received cash transfers as of May 2017. After the EVD crisis, no further update on this indicator was provided. Annexes CLR Review 26 Independent Evaluation Group CPS FY13-FY17: Focus Area III: Actual Results Governance and Public IEG Comments Institutions 9. CPS Objective: Improved public financial management. Indicator: Public Financial This outcome was supported by the Integrated The Public Management including Public Financial Management Reform Project Expenditure and Procurement - Capacity- (P127319, FY12). Financial development/gender - Extent of Accountability unreported government The ICRR: MU reported that the rating for the Assessment (PEFA) operations (PEFA PI-7 Score). extent of unreported government operations 2016 remain at the baseline level of D+ in 2016. on Liberia’s Public Baseline: D+ (2012) Management ICR: MU indicated that this is Financial Target: B (2017) due to the fact that donor projects managed Management by Project Financial Management Unit Systems report was (PFMU) and other Ministries and Agencies published in July (M&A) were not consolidated into the financial 2016. statements of the Consolidated Fund account by the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning (MFDP). Not Achieved Indicator 2: Public Financial This outcome was supported by the Integrated Management including Public Financial Management Reform Project. Procurement - Capacity- development/gender - Scope, The ICRR: MU reported that the rating for the nature and follow-up of external Scope, nature and follow-up of external audits Major audits – PEFA PI- 26 (PEFA remain at the baseline level of D+. Outcome Score). Management December 2017 ICR: MU Measures indicated that the primary reason for the poor Baseline: D+ (2012) score were the delays in submission of audit Target: C+ (2017) reports by the Auditor General to the Legislature, which has also been a result of late response by auditees to audit queries raised by the Auditor General. Not Achieved 10. CPS Objective: Improve land administration. Indicator 1: Land This outcome was supported by the Administration - Capacity- Rehabilitation and Reform of Land Rights and development/gender - Deed Related Land Matters SPF (P117010, FY10) registry completion (%) and the Third Reengagement and Reform Support program – RRSP 3 (P117279, FY11). Baseline: 0 (2012) Target: 80 (2017) The project completion memorandum of P117010 reported that a total of 561 ledgers of deed records (and 57,161 deeds) had been digitized at time of project closing (March 2014).The IEG CLRR: MS of project P117279 reported that by 2016 99% of deeds have been consolidated in the National Archived with 95% of the deeds having been digitized. Achieved Annexes CLR Review 27 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 2: Planned and Actual Lending for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project ID Project name IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount Project Planned Under CPS/PLR CPS PLR LR-Road Asset Management Add'l P129654 2013 2013 2022 50 50 Financing LR-Accelerated Electricity Exp. P133445 2013 2013 2020 35 35 (FY13) LR-Health Systems Strengthening P128909 2013 2013 2020 10 10 (FY13) P127317 LR-PRSDPO-I (FY13) 2013 2013 2014 10 10 Liberia-Urban Rural Infrastr. P144435 2014 2014 2017 12 19.6 Rehab. AF LR-Public Sector Modernization P143064 2014 2014 2020 2 2 (FY14) Cancelled Poverty Reduction Support DPO 2014 10 Transport Project (Ganta to Harper Cancelled 2015 80 road) P146619 LR PRSDPO II 2015 2015 2016 5 30 P146827 LR-Youth Oppurtunities Project 2015 2016 2021 10 10 P155293 Social Safety Nets Project 2015 2016 2022 10 P162893 Liberia Land Administration Project 2015 2018 2023 9 7 P153124 LACEEP Additional Financing 2016 2015 60 60 P151502 LR-PRSDPOIII (FY16) 2016 2017 2018 5 40 Natural Resource Management Cancelled 2017 80 Governance Project –indicative Cancelled Poverty Reduction Support DPO 2017 5 Total 383 283.6 Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project ID Project name IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount Project Unplanned Under CPS/PLR CPS PLR Ebola Emergency Response P152359** 2015 2021 52 Project AF Ebola Emergency Response P152980 2015 115 Project Supplemental Grant for Liberia P156826 2016 2016 0 PRSDPOII Liberia Renewable Energy Access P149683 2016 2021 2 Project P155947 Urban Water Supply 2016 2021 10 P163164 Liberia PRSDPOIII Supplemental 2017 2018 12 P161939 Additional Financing to LIBRAMP 2017 2024 40 Total 231 Annexes CLR Review 28 Independent Evaluation Group Approved Proposed Approval Closing Proposed Proposed Project ID Project name IDA FY FY FY Amount Amount Amount On-going Projects During the CPS/PLR Period CPS PLR P117279 LR- RRSP 3 - Budget Support 2011 2013 11 LR-Emergency Infrastructure ERL P100160 2006 2013 30 (FY06) P105683 LR-Comm. Empowerment II 2007 2014 5 P107248 LR-Econ. Gov. & Institut. Ref. TAL 2008 2015 11 LR-Agric. & Infra. Dev. Proj. ERL P104716 2008 2016 37 (FY08) P117019 LR: AIDP - Additional Financing 2009 2016 16 West Africa Regional Fisheries P106063** 2009 2016 9 Program LR-Urban and Rural Infra. Rehab. P113099 2009 2017 44 Project LR: Youth, Employment, Skills P121686 2010 2016 6 Project LR-Emergency Monrovia Urban P115664 2010 2017 0 Sanitation West Africa Regional P116273** Communications Infrastructure 2010 2017 25.6 Program LR:Urban &Rural Infrastructure P121770 2010 2017 20 RehabProj P124643 LR:EGIRP -Additional Financing 2011 2015 7 LR-AF Emergency Monrovia P124664 2011 2017 4 Urban San. LR-Electricity System P120660 2011 2017 10 Enhancement (FY11) West Africa Agricultural P122065** Productivity Program APL 2011 2019 6 (WAAPP-1C) LR-Road Asset Management P125574 2011 2024 67.7 FY11) P123196 LR-RRSP4 Budget Support 2012 2013 5 P127319 LR-Integrated PFM Reform 2012 2017 5 P129097 LR-LESEP Add'l Financing (FY12) 2012 2017 22 P113273 LR-Smallholder Tree Crop Project 2012 2019 15 Total 356.3 Source: Liberia CPS, WB Business Intelligence Table 2a.4, 2a.7, and 2b.1 as of 10/17/2018. Note: * Rating from Parent Project; ** Regional projects. Annexes CLR Review 29 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 3: Advisory Services and Analytics Work for Liberia, FY13-FY17 Project Fiscal Economic and Sector Work Report Type Global Practice ID Year P133205 DTIS UPDATE FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Trade & Competitiveness LR Higher Educ P132414 FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Education Diagnostics/Strategy Public Expenditure Review Macroeconomics, Trade P127315 LR-PER FY13 (PER) and Investment LR-Youth Econ/Soc Resilience P129514 FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Education (FY13) Health, Nutrition & P128825 LR: Health Financing FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Population P. Econo of Gov. Governance P133232 FY13 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Governance in Liberia Economic Impact of Ebola P152547 FY15 Other Poverty Study Poverty and Equity Survey Enhancing Regulations on Macroeconomics, Trade P146541 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Services Trade and Investment Macroeconomics, Trade P133196 Liberia Policy Notes FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note and Investment Liberia Sustainable and Inclusive P147613 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Energy & Extractives Natura Liberia: Decentralization P146745 FY15 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Governance Diagnostic Skills Development Constraints P151728 FY16 Sector or Thematic Study/Note Social Protection & Labor for Youth Project Fiscal Technical Assistance Output Type Global Practice ID Year Liberia # 10056 Capital Mkt Strat Finance, Competitiveness P125294 FY13 Technical Assistance & Reg and Innovation Liberia Electricity Sector P144562 FY13 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives Dialogue P143532 Youth Employment Program FY13 Technical Assistance Social Protection & Labor Liberia: NBFI Regulatory and Finance, Competitiveness P126368 FY14 Technical Assistance Supervision Framework # 10055 and Innovation Transport & Digital P147733 Broadband and ICT Applications FY14 Technical Assistance Development Social, Urban, Rural and P144069 Liberia - Urban Planning FY14 Technical Assistance Resilience Global Practice Macroeconomics, Trade P146056 Liberia MTDS FY14 Technical Assistance and Investment Macroeconomics, Trade P148701 Liberia MTDS Follow-up FY14 Technical Assistance and Investment Macroeconomics, Trade P130095 Liberia Reform Plan FY14 Technical Assistance and Investment LR: Support to Women Econ Social, Urban, Rural and P124070 FY14 Technical Assistance Emp Resilience Global Practice AFREA - Liberia Rural Energy P118460 FY15 Technical Assistance Energy & Extractives (Phase 1) P146543 Household Expenditure Survey FY15 Technical Assistance Poverty and Equity Improve Access to Water Supply P149802 FY15 Technical Assistance Water Monrovia Annexes CLR Review 30 Independent Evaluation Group Liberia Public Investment P146639 FY15 Technical Assistance Governance Management P146985 Efficiency in Budget Execution FY16 Technical Assistance Governance P147099 Liberia DTIS Dissemination FY16 Technical Assistance Trade & Competitiveness Macroeconomics, Trade P157798 Liberia Second DeMPA FY16 Technical Assistance and Investment LR-Strengthening Framework for P143336 FY16 Technical Assistance Other RBM FY13 P131782 PSD Strategy & Dialogue FY16 Technical Assistance Trade & Competitiveness Social, Urban, Rural and P133712 Strengthening DRM in Liberia FY16 Technical Assistance Resilience Global Practice Education Sector Plan P159218 FY17 Technical Assistance Education Development Finance, Competitiveness P150106 Liberia #A052 FSDIP FY17 Technical Assistance and Innovation Liberia Corruption Prevention, Finance, Competitiveness P149586 FY17 Technical Assistance AML/CFT and Innovation National Social Protection P156467 FY17 Technical Assistance Social Protection & Labor Systems Technical Assistance to P155941 FY17 Technical Assistance Poverty and Equity 2015/2016 HIES Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 10/17/2018. Annexes CLR Review 31 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 4: Liberia Grants and Trust Funds Active in FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Project Approval Closing Approved Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount P163164 Liberia PRSDPOIII Supplemental TF A4949 2017 2018 4.4 West Africa Region Fisheries Program AF Guinea, Sierra P156759 TF A3532 2017 2019 1.0 Leone & Liberia West Africa Regional Fisheries Program in Liberia - P159912 TF A3199 2017 2018 4.2 ACGF GIRLS EBOLA RECOVERY LIVELIHOOD SUPPORT P159493 TF A3359 2017 2018 0.5 (GERLS) PROJECT Liberia Health Systems Strengthening Project - P162477 TF A4116 2017 2020 16.0 Additional Financing P143064 Liberia: Public Sector Modernization Project TF A1263 2017 2019 4.3 P149683 Liberia Renewable Energy Access Project TF A1646 2016 2021 25.0 P154114 Liberia Forest Sector Project TF A2427 2016 2020 36.7 Liberia MSME & Rural Finance post Ebola P157797 TF A2356 2016 2019 4.8 Reconstruction P158005 Strengthening Liberia Health System TF A2772 2016 2019 4.9 Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young P110571 TF A2018 2016 2017 0.2 Women in Liberia Liberia Health Systems Strengthening Project- Additional P156231 TF A1167 2016 2018 0.4 Financing Supplemental Financing for Second Poverty Reduction P156826 TF A1815 2016 2016 5.0 Support DPOII Liberia - Strengthening the National Statistics System - P145709 TF A0983 2016 2018 0.5 Household Income Expenditure Survey Education Sector - Ebola Recovery and Reconstruction P154880 TF A1017 2016 2017 1.0 Project RURAL ROADS EMERGENCY MAINTENANCE P156236 TF A0923 2016 2017 3.0 PROJECT Liberia Integrated Public Financial Management Reform P127319 TF A2366 2016 2017 2.6 Project P115664 Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation Project (EMUS) TF A1481 2016 2017 3.3 P124073 Liberia-FCPF REDD READINESS TF A0929 2016 2019 5.0 P146591 Supporting Psychosocial Health and Resilience in Liberia TF 19188 2015 2019 2.8 P147967 Youth, Employment, Skills Project Additional Financing TF 17816 2015 2016 3.4 P146966 Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation 2AF TF 17803 2015 2017 7.0 Liberia - Strengthening the National Statistics System - P145709 TF 16277 2014 2017 3.6 Household Income Expenditure Survey P128909 Liberia Health Systems Strengthening TF 14432 2014 2019 5.0 P128282 Liberia EITI - Post Compliance I TF 15188 2014 2016 0.2 P113099 LR-Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project TF 16065 2014 2017 9.4 Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young P110571 TF 13809 2013 2017 3.6 Women in Liberia P128909 Liberia Health Systems Strengthening TF 13274 2013 2016 0.9 Economic Governance & Institutional Reform- P124643 TF 13843 2013 2014 0.1 Additional Financing P124809 Liberia Will Rise Again Diaspora Engagement Program TF 12105 2013 2016 0.4 P130797 Adolescent Girls Unit, Ministry of Gender and TF 12608 2013 2016 0.2 Annexes CLR Review 32 Independent Evaluation Group Project Approval Closing Approved Project name TF ID ID FY FY Amount Development Liberia Integrated Public Financial Management Reform P127319 TF 12390 2013 2017 18.1 Project P127678 Liberia PAC Capacity Building Project TF 12541 2013 2016 0.4 Liberia: Strengthening Governance (Civil Service Reform P128823 TF 10792 2012 2016 2.0 and Accountability). Liberia: Strengthening Governance (Civil Service Reform P128823 TF 11340 2012 2016 1.5 and Accountability). Strengthening Accountancy Prog at the University of P126907 TF 12494 2012 2015 0.5 Liberia P124014 Lighting Lives in Liberia TF 11962 2012 2017 1.5 P110723 GPOBA W3 - Liberia Electricity Access TF 11297 2012 2017 10.0 P125574 Liberia Road Asset Management Project - LIBRAMP TF 99588 2012 2020 108.9 P124073 Liberia-FCPF REDD READINESS TF 12530 2012 2017 3.6 Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young P110571 TF 99015 2011 2013 2.0 Women in Liberia The Liberian Institute of Certified Public Accountants P119435 TF 97529 2011 2015 0.5 (LICPA) P123361 Liberia: PFM Strengthening & Reform Coordination TF 99405 2011 2014 0.5 Catalyzing New Renewable Energy in Rural Liberia - P118439 TF 99017 2011 2014 2.0 Phase 2 P114580 Liberia: Expansion of Protected Areas Network - II TF 99452 2011 2014 0.4 P114580 Liberia: Expansion of Protected Areas Network - II TF 97657 2011 2015 1.0 Global Partnership for Education Grant for Basic P117662 TF 97456 2011 2017 40.0 Education Project P121686 LR: Youth, Employment, Skills Project TF 97110 2011 2016 10.0 P113099 LR-Urban and Rural Infrastructure Rehabilitation Project TF 98040 2011 2017 27.0 P107248 Economic Governance & Institutional Reform TF 99092 2011 2014 0.4 P104716 LR-Agriculture & Infrastructure Development Project TF 96385 2011 2013 13.4 P115664 Emergency Monrovia Urban Sanitation Project (EMUS) TF 94060 2010 2017 18.4 Land Sector Reforms: Rehabilitation and Reform of Land P117010 TF 94864 2010 2014 3.0 Rights and Related Land Matters Economic Empowerment of Adolescent Girls and Young P110571 TF 92541 2009 2013 3.1 Women in Liberia P105683 Community Empowerment II TF 94016 2009 2013 12.1 P105830 Establishment of Protected Areas Network TF 92010 2008 2013 0.8 P104716 LR-Agriculture & Infrastructure Development Project TF 92332 2008 2016 3.0 Total 442.9 Source: WB Client Connection as of 10/17/2018. Note: IEG validates RETF that are 5M and above. Annexes CLR Review 33 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 5: IEG Project Ratings for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Exit Total IEG Risk to Project ID Project name IEG Outcome FY Evaluated DO MODERATELY 2013 P117279 LR- RRSP 3 - Budget Support 11.5 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2014 P105683 LR-Comm. Empowerment II 5.1 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY LR-Agric. & Infra. Dev. Proj. ERL MODERATELY 2016 P104716 53.6 SIGNIFICANT (FY08) SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2016 P121686 LR: Youth, Employment, Skills Project 6.2 SIGNIFICANT UNSATISFACTORY LR-Urban and Rural Infra. Rehab. 2017 P113099 84.0 SATISFACTORY # Project LR-Emergency Monrovia Urban 2017 P115664 4.0 SATISFACTORY SIGNIFICANT Sanitation MODERATELY 2017 P117662 LR - Education GPE Program (FY11) 40.0 SIGNIFICANT SATISFACTORY MODERATELY 2017 P127319 LR-Integrated PFM Reform 4.8 # UNSATISFACTORY LR-Electricity System Enhancement 2017 P120660 30.3 SATISFACTORY # (FY11) West Africa Regional Communications MODERATELY 2017 P116273* 25.6 HIGH Infrastructure Program SATISFACTORY Total 265.2 Source: IEG staff calculations and WB Business Intelligence Key IEG Ratings as of 10/16/2018. * Regional project Annex Table 6: IEG Project Ratings for Liberia and Comparators, FY13-FY17 Total Total Outcome Outcome RDO % RDO % Region Evaluated Evaluated % Sat % Sat Moderate or Lower Moderate or Lower ($M) (No) ($M) (No) Sat ($) Sat (No) Liberia 265.2 10 95.8 80 0 0 Africa 20,561.2 379 75.5 68 34 31 World 108,469.4 1240 84.9 73 53 43 Source: IEG staff calculations and WB Business Intelligence as of 10/17/2018. Annexes CLR Review 34 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 7: Portfolio Status for Liberia and Comparators, FY13-FY17 Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Ave FY13-FY17 Liberia # Proj 11 11 10 13 10 11 # Proj At Risk 1 3 2 1 2 2 % Proj At Risk 9 27 20 8 20 17 Net Comm Amt ($M) 364.7 377.2 396.3 396.3 363.7 379.6 Comm At Risk ($M) 53.0 142.7 12.0 117.7 167.7 98.6 % Commit at Risk 15 38 3 30 46 26 Africa # Proj 403 438 458 474 502 455 # Proj At Risk 106 115 111 124 135 118 % Proj At Risk 26 26 24 26 27 26 Net Comm Amt ($M) 40,799.0 46,621.7 51,993.5 56,089.8 61,022.2 51,305.2 Comm At Risk ($M) 13,938.0 16,171.5 15,372.2 18,235.0 19,934.3 16,730.2 % Commit at Risk 34 35 30 33 33 33 World # Proj 1337 1386 1402 1398 1459 1396 # Proj At Risk 339 329 339 336 344 337 % Proj At Risk 25 24 24 24 24 24 Net Comm Amt ($M) 169,430.6 183,153.9 191,907.8 207,350.0 212,502.9 192,869.0 Comm At Risk ($M) 39,638.0 39,748.6 44,430.7 42,715.1 50,837.9 43,474.1 % Commit at Risk 23 22 23 21 24 23 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 10/17/2018. Note: Only IBRD and IDA Agreement Type are included Annex Table 8: Disbursement Ratio for Liberia, FY13-FY17 Fiscal Year 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Overall Result Liberia Disbursement Ratio (%) 22 15 25 29 23 22 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 44.0 37.3 55.2 63.4 51.0 250.9 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 201.9 257.1 219.5 221.8 220.6 1,121.0 Africa Disbursement Ratio (%) 22 23 24 20 21 22 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 5,652.1 6,143.9 6,473.2 5,572.5 6,222.9 30,064.7 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 25,175.9 26,540.4 26,463.6 28,377.1 29,309.5 135,866.6 World Disbursement Ratio (%) 21 21 22 19 20 21 Inv Disb in FY ($M) 20,510.7 20,757.7 21,853.7 21,152.9 22,126.4 106,401.4 Inv Tot Undisb Begin FY ($M) 99,588.3 99,854.3 100,344.9 108,600.3 108,147.9 516,535.6 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 10/17/2018. Annexes CLR Review 35 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 9: Net Disbursements and Charges for Liberia, FY13-FY17 (US$, millions) Period Disb. Amt. Repay Amt. Net Amt. Charges Fees Net Transfers FY13 40.2 0.0 40.2 0.0 0.3 39.9 FY14 41.9 0.0 41.9 0.0 0.3 41.6 FY15 183.6 0.0 183.6 0.0 0.8 182.8 FY16 131.0 0.0 131.0 0.0 1.0 130.0 FY17 85.3 0.0 85.3 0.0 1.8 83.5 Report Total 482.0 0.0 482.0 0.0 4.1 477.9 Source: WB Business Intelligence as of 10/17/2018. Annex Table 10: Total Net Disbursements of Official Development Assistance for Liberia (US$, millions) Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 2016 Australia 7.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 Austria .. .. -0.1 .. Belgium 0.0 7.0 1.5 1.4 Canada 3.1 11.6 6.7 0.6 Czech Republic .. 0.3 .. .. Denmark 0.2 0.2 0.5 -0.3 Finland 1.9 0.3 0.6 0.5 France 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 Germany 24.1 41.0 14.7 44.7 Greece .. .. .. .. Iceland .. .. .. .. Ireland 9.7 8.6 7.7 3.7 Italy 0.4 .. .. 0.1 Japan 22.8 30.3 17.2 26.3 Korea 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.5 Luxembourg 0.3 0.3 .. .. Netherlands .. 6.8 0.0 .. Norway 34.3 38.5 34.6 20.6 Poland 0.0 .. 0.0 0.0 Slovak Republic .. 0.1 .. .. Spain 0.1 2.5 0.7 0.0 Sweden 37.7 38.2 26.3 25.6 Switzerland 4.4 14.0 5.5 2.2 United Kingdom 13.6 9.5 16.3 2.1 United States 157.9 209.3 514.1 399.4 DAC Countries, Total 318.2 420.9 649.2 530.1 Israel .. 0.1 0.0 .. Annexes CLR Review 36 Independent Evaluation Group Development Partners 2013 2014 2015 2016 Kuwait 0.6 0.6 0.3 7.6 Russia .. 2.1 2.5 .. Turkey 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.2 United Arab Emirates 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.3 Non-DAC Countries, Total 0.8 4.6 4.1 8.1 EU Institutions 48.8 108.3 69.6 48.6 International Monetary Fund, Total 22.4 57.1 55.5 38.5 IMF (Concessional Trust Funds) 22.4 57.1 55.5 38.5 Regional Development Banks, Total 35.4 8.5 76.6 21.1 African Development Bank, Total 35.4 8.5 76.6 19.4 African Development Bank [AfDB] 0.1 .. 0.0 0.0 African Development Fund [AfDF] 35.4 8.5 76.6 19.3 Islamic Development Bank [IsDB] .. .. .. 1.7 United Nations, Total 37.5 29.2 29.5 27.6 Food and Agriculture Organisation [FAO] 0.7 .. .. .. IFAD 3.1 4.7 4.1 3.0 International Labour Organisation [ILO] 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 UNAIDS 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 UNDP 4.0 5.5 5.6 9.9 UNFPA 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 UNHCR 14.6 .. 4.8 .. UNICEF 3.2 6.1 5.8 5.0 UN Peacebuilding Fund [UNPBF] 4.8 7.8 4.1 3.6 WFP 1.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 World Health Organisation [WHO] 1.6 1.3 1.5 2.7 World Bank Group, Total 43.7 100.4 184.5 118.9 World Bank, Total 43.7 100.4 184.5 118.9 International Development Association [IDA] 43.7 100.4 184.5 118.9 Other Multilateral, Total 29.1 20.6 25.4 22.3 Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization [GAVI] 5.1 3.4 9.6 2.3 Global Environment Facility [GEF] 3.2 3.1 2.5 2.0 Global Fund 20.8 14.1 13.3 18.4 OPEC Fund for International Development [OFID] .. .. .. -0.4 Multilateral Agencies, Total 216.9 324.1 441.2 276.8 Development Partners, Total 535.9 749.6 1,094.4 815.0 Source: OECD Stat database as of 10/17/2018. Note: Most Data only available up to FY16 Annexes CLR Review 37 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 11: Economic and Social Indicators for Liberia Liberia Africa World Series Name 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average 2013-2017 Growth and Inflation GDP growth (annual %) 8.7 0.7 0.0 -1.6 2.5 2.1 3.3 2.8 GDP per capita growth (annual %) 6.0 -1.7 -2.4 -4.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.6 1.6 GNI per capita, PPP (current 720.0 710.0 720.0 700.0 710.0 712.0 3,550.8 15,732.4 international $) GNI per capita, Atlas method (current 370.0 370.0 380.0 370.0 380.0 374.0 1,614.4 10,610.0 US$) (Millions) Inflation, consumer prices (annual %) 7.6 9.8 7.8 8.8 .. 8.5 4.6 2.1 Composition of GDP (%) Agriculture, value added (% of GDP) 37 36 34 34 34 35 16 4 Industry, value added (% of GDP) 16 16 13 13 12 14 24 26 Services, etc., value added (% of 47 49 53 53 54 51 53 64 GDP) Gross fixed capital formation (% of 19 19 20 20 .. 20 20 23 GDP) Gross domestic savings (% of GDP) -42 -61 -67 -59 .. -57 17 25 External Accounts Exports of goods and services (% of 35 28 19 21 .. 26 27 30 GDP) Imports of goods and services (% of 96 109 107 100 .. 103 30 29 GDP) Current account balance (% of GDP) -28 -80 -42 .. .. -50 .. .. External debt stocks (% of GNI) 32 41 48 52 .. 43 .. .. Total debt service (% of GNI) 0 1 3 1 .. 1 2 .. Total reserves in months of imports 2.5 1.7 2.1 .. .. 2.1 5.4 13.0 Fiscal Accounts* General government revenue (% of 27 29 32 32 30 30 18 .. GDP) General government total 33 32 36 35 35 34 23 .. expenditure (% of GDP) General government net -6 -3 -4 -4 -5 -4 -4 .. lending/borrowing (% of GDP) General government gross debt (% 18 22 26 28 34 26 38 .. of GDP) Health Life expectancy at birth, total (years) 61.1 61.5 62.0 62.5 .. 61.8 59.7 71.8 Immunization, DPT (% of children 76 50 52 79 86 69 71 85 ages 12-23 months) People using at least basic sanitation 16 17 17 .. .. 17 28 67 services (% of pop) People using at least basic drinking 69 69 70 .. .. 69 57 88 water services (% of pop) Mortality rate, infant (per 1,000 live 63.2 61.2 59.3 57.6 55.9 59.4 54.9 31.3 births) Education School enrollment, preprimary (% .. 158 156 .. .. 157 32 48 gross) School enrollment, primary (% gross) .. 96 94 .. .. 95 98 104 Annexes CLR Review 38 Independent Evaluation Group Liberia Africa World Series Name 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Average 2013-2017 School enrollment, secondary (% .. 38 37 .. .. 38 43 76 gross) Population Population, total (Millions) 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.5 1,006.4 7,357.7 Population growth (annual %) 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 1 Urban population (% of total) 49 49 50 50 51 50 39 54 Poverty Poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a .. 39 .. .. .. 39 42 11 day (2011 PPP) (% of pop) Poverty headcount ratio at national .. 54 .. 51 .. 53 .. .. poverty lines (% of pop) Rural poverty headcount ratio at .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. national poverty lines (% of rural pop) Urban poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of urban .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. pop) GINI index (World Bank estimate) .. 33.2 .. .. .. 33.2 .. .. Source: WB Development Data Platform as of 10/17/2018. *International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2018. Annexes CLR Review 39 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 12: List of IFC Investments in Liberia Investments Committed in FY13-FY17 Project Cmt Project Primary Project Original Original Net Net Net Comm ID FY Status Sector Name Size Loan CMT Loan Equity Education 39170 2017 Active 500 500 500 500 - 500 Services Finance & 39213 2017 Active 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 - 2,000 Insurance Agriculture and 37027 2016 Active 2,500 2,500 2,500 2,500 - 2,500 Forestry Oil, Gas and 34785 2015 Closed 19,173 - 11,278 11,278 11,278 11,278 Mining Finance & 36103 2015 Closed 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 - 7,500 Insurance Finance & 36108 2015 Closed 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 - 7,500 Insurance Oil, Gas and 36263 2015 Closed 8,273 - 8,273 8,273 8,227 8,227 Mining Finance & 36352 2015 Active 6,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 - 3,000 Insurance Agriculture and 36357 2015 Active 5,000 2,500 2,500 2,500 - 2,500 Forestry Finance & 32173 2013 Active 231 - 231 231 231 231 Insurance Oil, Gas and 32177 2013 Closed 8,710 - 4,751 4,751 4,751 4,751 Mining Sub-Total 67,386 25,500 50,033 50,033 24,487 49,987 Investments Committed pre-FY13 but active during FY13-17 Project CMT Project Primary Project Original Original Net Net Net Comm ID FY Status Sector Name Size Loan CMT Loan Equity Finance & 30034 2011 Active 8,500 68,286 68,286 68,286 - 68,286 Insurance Finance & 30472 2011 Active 470 - 470 470 470 470 Insurance Finance & 28679 2010 Active 450 - 450 450 450 450 Insurance Finance & 29193 2010 Active 6,000 42,797 42,797 42,797 - 42,797 Insurance Finance & 29794 2010 Active 3,000 3,000 3,000 3,000 - 3,000 Insurance Finance & 26012 2009 Active 3,100 2,000 3,080 1,080 1,080 1,080 Insurance Agriculture and 26510 2009 Active 15,721 10,000 10,000 6,000 - 6,000 Forestry Sub-Total 37,241 126,083 128,083 122,083 2,000 122,083 TOTAL 104,627 151,583 178,115 172,115 26,487 172,069 Source: IFC-MIS Extract as of end May 31, 2018 Annexes CLR Review 40 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 13: List of IFC Advisory Services in Liberia Advisory Services Approved in FY13-17 Impl Impl Primary Project Total Project Name Start End Project Status Business ID Funds, US$ FY FY Line 593427 Liberia Local Supplier Development Project 2017 2019 TERMINATED INR 2,034,722 599421 SME Ventures WAVF II 2017 2022 ACTIVE CTT 831,553 CREATED IN 601955 Liberia SME Development 2017 2017 EFI - ERROR 601969 Afriland Liberia Advisory Services 2017 2017 ACTIVE FIG - 601974 LBDI Advisory Services 2017 2017 ACTIVE FIG - 601381 National Diagnostic Center PPP Liberia 2016 2019 ACTIVE CAS 993,063 600259 West Africa Ventures Program 2015 2018 ACTIVE CTT 2,299,834 Liberia Electricity Corporation Options 600973 2015 2017 TERMINATED CAS 320,000 Analysis Liberia Commercial Court and Debt 597187 2014 2019 ACTIVE EFI 1,690,000 Resolution Project 599769 ABL SME lending 2014 2017 CLOSED FIG 798,714 CREATED IN 600045 ALF II (Liberia) 2014 2018 A2F 500,000 ERROR 588867 RSPO National Interpretation for Liberia 2013 2016 TERMINATED MAS 871,485 Liberia Secured Transactions and Collateral 592527 2013 2018 ACTIVE EFI 872,000 Registries LEC Management Contract Post 595547 2013 2013 CLOSED PPP 155,749 Implementation Support Sub-Total 11,367,120 Advisory Services Approved pre-FY13 but active during FY13-17 Impl Impl Primary Project Total Project Name Start End Project Status Business ID Funds, US$ FY FY Line 585067 Liberia Trade 2 2012 2017 ACTIVE EFI 1,045,000 Sub-Total 1,045,000 TOTAL 12,412,120 Source: IFC AS Data as of July 15, 2018 Annexes CLR Review 41 Independent Evaluation Group Annex Table 14: IFC Net Commitment Activity in Liberia, FY13 - FY17 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total Long-term Investment Commitment Financial Markets 231,000 - 17,000,000 1,000,000 2,000,000 20,231,000 Agribusiness & Forestry - - 2,500,000 2,500,000 - 5,000,000 Health, Education, Life Sciences - - - - 500,000 500,000 Oil, Gas & Mining 4,809,870 0 19,401,336 (8,220) (49,689) 24,153,298 Total IFC Long Term 5,040,870 0 38,901,336 3,491,780 2,450,311 49,884,298 Investment Commitment Short-term Finance/Trade Finance - Average Outstanding 10,452,416 6,234,950 8,984,080 4,820,000 7,681,100 38,172,546 Balance Source: IFC MIS as of 5/22/18 Note: IFC began reporting average outstanding short-term commitments (not total commitments) in FY15 and no longer aggregates short-term commitments with long-term commitments. IEG uses net commitment number for IFC's long-term investment. For trade finance guarantees under GTFP, average commitment numbers have been used. Annex Table 15: List of MIGA Activities in Liberia, 2013-2017 Max Project ID Contract Enterprise FY Sector Investor Gross Status Issuance No Active Projects during review period. Total - Source: MIGA 7/19/18