Rteport No. 84la ZA CIRCULATING COPY e3 Republic of Zambia TO BE RETURNED TO REPORTS DESK Agricultural and Rural Sector Survey FILE C Y- (In Three Volumes) Volume III: Annexes 12-19 October 20, 1975 General Agriculture Division Eastern Africa Regional Office Not for Public Use N Document of the World Bank This document has a restricted distribution and may be u by recipients only in the Performance of their official duties. Its 'contentsemyd o otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorizationtsrano CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS US$1 = Kwacha 0.64 Kwacha 1 (Kl) = US$1.56 Ngwee (n) 100 = Kwacha 1 WEIGHTS AND MEASURES 1 hectare (ha) = 2.471 acres 1 square kilometer (km2) = 100 ha = 247 acres = 0.386 square miles 1 kilometer (km) = 0.621 miles 1 kilogram (kg) = 2.2 lbs 1 metric ton (t) = 2,204.6 lbs 1 liter (1) = 2.116 US pints 1 bag maize = 90 kg 1 bag groundnuts = 80 kg ABBREVIATIONS AFC - Agricultural Finance Corporation CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (Centro Interracional de Mejoramiento de Maiz et Trigo) CSB - Cold Storage Board IDZ - Intensive Development Zone LANDSAT - Satellite undertaking program of land resource photography (formerly ERTS) MLNR - Ministry of Lands and Natural Resources MRD - Ministry of Rural Development NAMB - National Agricultural Marketing Board SNDP - Second National Development Plan (1972-76) RGA - Rural Growth Area RGC - Rural Growth Center RRP - Rural Reconstruction Program TAZARA - Tanzania-Zambia Railway UNIP - United National Independence Party ZliS - Zambia National Service This report is based on the findings of two missions which visited Zambia in September/October and November/December 1974 composed of Messrs. J.H.' Cleave, C.R. Blitzer, H.M. Kim, W.A. McCleary, Miss F.F., Johansen, Messrs. G.B. Nkojo, J.F.A. Russell, and M.A. Wolf (of the Bank) and Messrs. R. Ambroggi (UNDP), W.O. Jones, R.C.E. Kapteyn, J.C.D. Lawrance (MOD), and E.H. McCauley (Consultants). ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY VOLUME III TABLE OF CONTENTS ANNEX 12 - Transportation in Agricultural Development Appendix I: Tables Appendix II: Roads Department Organization ANNEX 13 - Performance and Prospects in Crop Agriculture ANNEX 14 - Water Resources: Potential, Use and Development Appendix I: List of Useful Documents Appendix II: Estimated Water Resources Appendix III: Yearly Rainfall Pattern (July 1970-June 1971) Appendix IV: Long-Term Rainfall Distribution Appendix V: Groundwater Occurrence and Discharge Data Appendix VI: Groundwater Extraction Through Boreholes Appendix VII: Theoretical Water Losses Appendix VIII: Hydropower Capacity and Production, 1973 Appendix IX: Domestic Water Supply, 1973 Appendix X: Water Supply Responsibilities by Functions, 1973 Appendix XI: Organization of the Department of Water Affairs, 1973 Appendix XII: Typical Organization of the Provincial W4ater Service within the Department of Water Affairs, 1973 Appendix XIII: 1973 Budget for Water Supply Appendix XIV: Existing Irrigation Schemes by Province, 1974 Appendix XV: Potential Large-Scale Irrigation Development by River Basin Appendix XVI: Capital Cost and Technical Aspects of Large-Scale Irrigation Schemes Appendix XVII: Commercial Farm Medium-Scale Irrigation Appendix XVIII: Government Farm Medium-Scale Irrigat'ion from Chapula River (Copperbelt) Appendix XIX: Community Small-Scale Irrigation Appendix XX: Proposed Irrigation Coordinating Committee (ICC) Appendix XXI: Technical Inventory of the Existing Rural Water Supply Situation for a Rural Water Development Program Appendix XXII: Project Outlines ANNEX 15 - Livestock Development Appendix I: Offtake in Traditional Cattle Keeping Appendix II: Livestock Development Schemes in Progress Appendix III: Outline for Training Programs ANNEX 16 - Fisheries in Zambia ANNEX 17 - Summary of Investment Proposals ANNEX 18 - Development and Income Distribution in a Dual Economy: A Dynamic Simulation Model for Zambia ANNEX 19 - Statistical Annex ANlN'i IL Page i ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY TRANSPORT IN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT Paragraph(s) INTRODUCTION 1- 3 PART I--SUMMARY 4 - 3L4 Transport Infrastructure 4 - 8 Internal 14 7 International Links to Seaports 8 - 9 Transport Policy 10 - 25 Basic Policy and Related Institutions 10 - 11 Infrastructure Development 12 - 16 Transport Services 17 - 25 Agriculture-Related Transport 26 - 34 Internal 26 - 33 International 34 PART II--CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 35 - 43 Transport Policy 35 - 40 General 35 - 36 Infrastructure Development 37 - 38 Transport Services 39 - 40 Agriculture-Related Transport 41 - 43 Internal 41 International 42 - 43 PART III--ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT 44 - 103 Roads 44 - 78 Existing Network 44 - 48 Recent Developments 49 - 51 Current Plans 52 - 53 Related Institutions 54 - 78 Road Transport 79 - 103 Regulations 79 - 84 Vehicle Fleet 85 - 86 Road Haulage 87 - 97 Passenger Transportation 98 - 103 PART IV--INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT ROUTES 104 - 128 Lobito Route 104 - 107 Dar es Salaam Route 108 - 114 Beira Route 115 - 121 Nacala Route 122 - 123 ALNEY 12 Page ii Paragraph(s) Mombasa Route 124 - 125 Other Routes Not Presently Used 126 - 128 Appendix I Tables: 1.1 Road Inverntory, 1974 1.2 MPTW Road Classification and Standards 1.3 Functional Highway Classification 2 Road Densities, 1974 3.1 Vehicle Fleet, 1960-73 3.2 New Registrations of Mbtor Vehicles, 1955-72 3.3 Registration of Vehicles by Main Areas, 1972 h Roads Program (1972-76) 5 SNDP Transport Related Provincial Investment Program 6 Road Transport Fees and Fines 7 Imports and Exports by Route (axcluding Petroleum Fipeline), 1970-74 8 NAMB's Transport Capacity, June 197h 9 Contract Haulage Operating Costs and Tariffs, 1974 10 ZTRS Operating Costs and Tariffs, 1973 11 Roads Departmert Expenditure by Provinces - 1973 12 Motor Omnibus Fares Appendix II: Roads Department Organization ANNEX 12 Page iii ABBREVIATIONS BCEOM Bureau Central d'Etudes pour les Equipements d'Outre-Mer CARS Central African Road Services CH Contract Haulage CFB Chemins de Fer Benguela CPO Contingency Planning Office EAHC East Africa Harbours Corp. EPTCA Eastern Province Transport Cooperative Association MC Ministry of Commerce MSD Mechanical Services Department of MPTW NIGH Ministry of Local Government and Housir,g MPF Ministry of Planning and Finance MPTW Ministry of Power, Transport and Works M4Rr I- inistry of Rural Development NAMB National Agricultural Marketing Board NTC National Transport Corporation PFWD Public Works Department (of RC) RC Rural Council RD Roads Department (of MPFTW) RRTA Roads and Road Traffic Act RTC Road Traffic Commissioner SNCZ Societe Nationale de Chemins de Fer Zairois TAZARA Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority T Sh Tanzania Shilling UBZ United Bus Company of Zambia vpd Vehicles Per Day ZR Zambia Railways ZTRS Zambia-Tanzania Road Services ANNEX 12 Page 1 ZAMBIA AGRICULTURE AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY TRANSPORT IN AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT INTRODUCTION 1. Zambia, a large landlocked country with a scattered population, de- pends crucially upon its transport networks, not only because of the country's geographic and demographic characteristics, but also because imports and ex- ports amount to about half the value of its GNP. The high cost of bridging distances of more than 2,000 km to the sea is made even higher by the fact that the volume of imports far exceeds exports. This imbalance results in many vehicles going empty during the first half of round trips to the coast. These empty-trip costs are not reflected in the consumer price of imports because the Government grants subsidies to cover them. Even so, about 50% of the CIF Zambia price reflects transport-related costs from port of origin. If subsi- dies were included, in extreme cases transport-related costs would account for as much as 80% of actual CIF prices. 2. Agricultural products account for more than 10% of the value of im- ports, but if volume is considered, agricultural products' share of imports is still larger because of their price and weight-volume ratio, as compared to other imports. Zambia's trade imbalance, in the light of the country's ample potential to expand agricultural production, more than justifies an agricultural policy to produce and substitute local goods for imports and eventuallv to produce an exportable surplus, which would benefit from prac- tically zero additional inland transport costs to the ports. While transport problems are not the main constraint on expanding agricultural production, certain policies and practices which unnecessarily hinder the development of adequate internal transport and, thus the growth of agricultural output, can be improved. 3. This Annex examines those aspects of the Zambian transport sector which are related to agricultural development. The main features of the existing transport infrastructure, of Zambian transport policy, and of agri- culture-related transport are summarized in Part I, and some conclusions and recommendations are given in Part II. Parts III and IV explore in greater detail the most important aspects of transportation, that is, roads and road transport within Zambia and international transport routes. All nlumbered Tables are in Appendix I. PART I -- SUMMARY Transport Infrastructure Internal 4. Zambia's transport infrastructure is relatively well developed by African standards. The network includes more than 34,000 km of road of vari- ANNEX 12 Page 2 ous standards; two 1.067 m gauge railways, Zambia Railways, with about 1,050 km of track, and Tanzania-Zambia Railways (TAZARA), which is still under construction and totals in both countries about 1,860 km; approximately 120 airfields of various categories; and a few inland navigation facilities (Map IBRD 11509). 5. Road transport is the most important mode for the rural sector. The network has been developed to serve population concentrations and import/ex- port traffic needs. About 4,000 km of roads are paved and 7,400 are gravel, all-weather roads. The rest are ea5th roads or tracks (Table 1.1). National road density averages about 50 m/km and 7 m/person (Table 2), high by African standards. Vehicles in Zambia numbered more than 130,000 in 1973, or 3 per 100 inhabitants on average. About 80% were light vehicles, and 15% trucks and trailers (Table 3.1). Additional details are given in Part III. 6. Zambia Railways has a main line of about 800 km which crosses the central and southern part of the country in a north-south direction. Along this line are grouped most of the country's major economic activities, and there is a complex network of about 250 km of subsidiary lines which serve mines, refineries and other plants, mainly in the Copperbelt area. TAZARA, expected to be completed this year, will connect with the Zambian Railway at Kapiri-Mposhi and after approximately 900 km reach the Tanzanian border at Mwenzo. It is to carry as much of the country's external traffic as the capacity of the Dar es Salaam port allows or as cannot be routed through Lobito. It could also be used for local freight, and should foster rural development along the line-of-rail. 7. As far as other transport modes are concerned, aviation is not pres- ently relevant to rural and agricultural development. Internal water trans- port is also of negligible importance for overall agricultural growth because rivers are navigable only with difficulty and on short sections, and lakes are only suited for minor local transportation. International Links to Seaports 8. Because Zambia is both landlocked and heavily dependent on foreign trade, it is also very dependent on neighboring countries for transport facil- ities. The surface connections which exist between Zambia's infrastructure and seaports are: the Zaire and Angola railway system to Lobito (2,683 km from Lusaka); Rhodesian and Mozambique railways to Loureco Marques and Beira (about 2,040 kn); road and Malawi and Mozambique railways to Beira and Nacala (about 1,655 and 1,750 km respectively); paved road to Dar es Salaam (2,090 km); the TAZARA to be opened this year to the same port (2,040 km); and road to the port of Mombasa (about 2,350 km) 1/ (See Map IBRD 11510 and Part IV for further details.) 1/ The lengths for the various railways and route sections between ports and Lusaka differ in various sources. ANNEX 12 Page 3 9. The route through Rhodesia has not been used since January 9, 11973, as Zambia continues the border closure initiated by Rhodesia. However,lmany other routes are available which have been or are being improved and which increasingly obviate the effects of the border closure. Transport Policy Basic Policy and Related Institutions 10. The Zambian Government's basic transport policy objectives are apparently (a) to provide services which every citizen throughout the country can afford, and also (b) to ensure uninterrupted import-export traffic flow. 11. Various ministries and agencies of the Government share responsi- bility for meeting these objectives. The Ministry of Power, Transport and Works (MPTW) is responsible for carrying out the first objective and part of the second. This is done through planning, developing, and maintaining in- frastructure; regulating transport operations; and controlling parastatal transport organizations. Recently, in line with the decentralization policy, local authorities such as the Rural Councils (RC) may establish and implement investment proposals of local importance. Other ministries, such as the Ministry of Planning and Finance (MPF), are supposed to assist in coordinat- ing plans of the various agencies. Specifically charged with carrying out the second objective, a Contingency Planning Office (CPO) was established under the Prime Minister's office after the Rhodesian border closure to en- sure adequate import-export flows through careful routing plans. To help carry external trade, the CPO has acquired its own 400-vehicle trucking fleet. Infrastructure Development 12. The Second National Development Plan (SNDP) (1972-76) allocated to the transport sector K 335.3 million, or 28% of the total public investment, in order to consolidate the transport network and ensure the country's inte- grated economic development. At an estimated cost of K 134 million, the main priority was the construction of the Tanzania-Zambia Railway (TAZARA) to en- sure the free flow of foreign trade and to reduce its transport costs. Total railway investment accounted for 53% of the transport sector allocation. Construction of roads followed in priority, comprising 33% of the program. Lesser importance was given to the development of other modes. 13. Although later adjustments in the SNDP did not alter priorities, im- plementation has been uneven. From 1972 to 1974, 57% of the railway program was implemented, while only 24% of the roads program was undertaken. Details are shown in the following table: ANNEX 12 Page 4 ZAMBIA Transport Plans, 1972-76 (millions K) Actual Plans SNDP SNDP at Spent 1972-74 Cost Foreign Revised Add'l Total % of Mode Estim. % Loans Costs Projects (1) Total (1) Railway transport 178.5 53 158.9 205.1 2.9 208.0 118.9 57 Road /1 /2 transport- 93.1/- 28 30.5 123.7 41.3 165.0 40.2 24 Tazama Pipeline 25.0 7 16.7 23.0 30.0 53.0 25.0 47 Air transport 20.9 6 4.4 29.2 5.5 34.7 10.5 30 Water transport 3.1 1 2.2 1.7 - 1.7 0.6 35 Provinc4l __4__ roads- 14.7 5 14.7 14.7 n.a. n.a. Total 335.3 100 212.7 397.4 79.7 447.1 195.2 42 /1 More details are included in Table 4. /2 Including Samfya-Serenje road, not included in the SNDP. 73 Additional details are shown in Table 5. Note: Revised costs are possibly underestimated. Source: SNDP and Mid-term review, MPF, 1974. 14. Until recently road development was focused only upon building all- weather standard main links. Gradually, however, more emphasis is being given to rural low-class road building, even though paved connections among provin- cial capitals and from those capitals to district centers is still a goal. The SNDP indicates that "consideration will be given to studies aimed at ex- amining financial resources for construction and maintenance of roads as well as the need for all-weather roads in Zambia;....and self-help road build- ing..." 1/ Officials are now aware that roads should be upgraded only 1/ See page 13 of Zambia's Second National Development Plan. Annex 12 Page 5 when the corresponding investment is economically justified, and they will therefore conduct more detailed feasibility studies instead of making deci- sions only on the basis of traffic levels. They are also aware that self-help works can be meaningfully undertaken only after undertaking such studies and after developing a strategy for rural development as a whole. 15. In line with Zambia's decentralization policy, roads of locaL im- portance are planned by local agencies and generally built by the RC iwith funds allocated to them by the Ministry of Local Government and Housing (MLGH); however, no appropriate local road inventory exists so that funds can be prop- erly assigned. 1/ 16. Both the MPTW and the MPF state that road maintenance has high pri- ority, as specified in the SNDP, but allocated funds have been far from adequate and are continuously decreasing. Now they are at about half the required level, even when the need is conservatively estimated. All the agen- cies are struggling with shortages of qualified staff, and training is not being undertaken to the extent necessary to overcome these shortages. Given the ongoing Zambianization policy, these shortages may even worsen at head- quarters. (See Part III for additional details about roads and related insti- tutions.) Transport Services Internal 17. Some commodities, such as foodstuffs, copper and mine inputs, have been classified as essential and are thus favored with low transport fares. Other items are considered non-essential commodities because they have rela- tivelv little effect on the consumption needs of lower-income groups or on the earning of foreign exchange by the country's main export. These are trans- ported at higher rates. Passenger services are supposed to be provided even on low-density routes at rates accessible to all citizens. 18. The parastatal Zambia Railways, one third of whose costs 'are subsi- dized, is being used as much as possible to convey essential commodities, which are given priority. and pay tariffs below financial costs. 'When the TAZARA becomes operational in 1975, it will perform a similar role. The tariff level is still being studied. 19. Since the railwavs have limited coverage, road transport is widely used, both to feed the rail lines and for long distance transportI. The parastatal road transport organization, the National Transport Corporation 1/ Agricultural Offices undertake road construction also. (See Part III-- Roads.) ANNEX 12 Page 6 (NTC) was established by the Government because it considers it more appropri- ate to rely on parastatal organizations to perform unprofitable services (in- stead of doing without them or directly subsidizing a large number of private operators) and to handle emergency situations, which are more easily dealt with by a central entity. NTC is composed of four subsidiaries: Zambia Tanzania Road Services (ZTRS), Contract Haulage (CH), United Bus Company of Zambia (UBZ), and Bulk Carriers of Zambia. ZTRS is operating efficiently on the route to Dar es Salaam, but it is to stop operating six months after TAZARA starts functioning. CH moves internal freight. Since the border closure, it also carries international traffic both on the Great East Road and sometimes subcontracts services to ZTRS on the Tan-Zam Road. (Further details about NTC are given in Part III--Road Transport.) However, the NTC subsidiaries operate largely by subcontracting private transporters at offi- cially established, profitable tariffs because the Government apparently prefers that private carriers undertake public road services. A large number of these private operators exist and are competitive. 20. The National Agricultural Marketing Board (NAMB) has taken charge of moving agricultural products, as explained in Part I--Agricultural-Related Transport. 21. Commercial vehicles can be imported subject to only a 10% duty, and some kinds of vehicles can be imported duty-free. This may change, though, once the heavy-vehicle assembling plant under construction at Kasama starts production. The Roads and Road Traffic Act and its subsequent ordinances establish the conditions under which road transport can be undertaken. It in- cludes well-defined safety regulations and licensing requirements which are not, however, firmly enforced. Lack of axle load control enforcement is dam- aging the roads. Fees and fines are detailed in Table 6. All public road service license applications have to be processed in Lusaka. The Road Traffic Commissioner (RTC), assisted by a Road Transport Panel, decides to deny or grant licenses and establishes their conditions. The goods road service licenses specify the route/area on which the vehicle can operate, the type of goods it is allowed to carry, and may establish the fares to be charged for the service; the validity period varies from one to five years, although some short-term licenses (for three months) are granted, for instance, for moving agricultural products. Passenger service licenses establish route and time- table, and all bus operators are required to charge a uniform tariff per km, escablished by the RTC independently of the type of road on which the service is to be provided. 22. Internal road transport Is Uiscusseu in 6reater ueptn iin Part III-- Road Transport. International 23. International transport policy is centered on efficient routing of trade in order to balance flows on each route--taking into consideration the capacity of each port--and on subsidizing at least part of the increased costs which have resulted from the border closure. The overall objective is to keep ANNEX 12 Page 7 prices in the country from rising. The CPO implements this policy by limiting some non-essential imports; by specifying on each import license whichlroute is to be used (generally bulk cargo is directed through Lobito, fertilizer through Ncala, and general cargo through the other ports); and by carrying part of the goods in its own fleet or through parastatal organizations (ZTRS, CH and railways). The Government is also considering linking the Zambia ,railway system to the Malawi system to ease traffic flow to eastern ports. It can, however, do little to improve foreign port conditions, which are generally the main bottleneck. 24. Because of the border closure, Zambia has received considerable sup- port from other nations, including neighboring countries: technical assis- tance, support in kind, and K 10 million grants and K 20 million in soft loans. 18 Diesel locomotives and about 400 wagons were bought with the loans, to enable ZR to fulfill its new role over the Lobito route, and about 400 trucks were acquired by the CPO, to be operated by CH to solve the transport capacity shortage. This emergency expenditure, together with normal capital ihvestment in rolling stock, amounted to more than K 17 million in 1974. 25. In 1974, about 1,016,000 tons were imported and 937,000 exported, a more balanced tonnage flow than in previous years. However, most of the exports were copper, with high specific weight, and most of the imports are general cargo or agricultural products, with only about two-thirds the speci- fic weight of copper. Thus, in terms of volume, imports are as much as 150% of exports, 1/ and export transport capacity, even by air, remains underuti- lized. Traffic flows by surface and air routes since 1970 are shown in Table 7. Note that the congested Lobito port in 1974 was used for about 50% of Zambia's external traffic, compared to a little more than 10% in 1970. Dar es Salaam, also congested, handled about 30%, Mombasa about 10%, and Beira and Nacala the remaining 10%, except for the small proportion shipped by air. The original rerouting plans allocated less traffic than what actually has been carried on the route to Lobito and overestimated the use of aircraft. Agriculture-Related Transport Internal 26. The long distances between agricultural production and conlsumption centers, the latter mainly along the line-of-rail, create a high transport demand, which is heavily seasonal because of the pattern of agriculitural acti- vities. As it is Zambian policy to ensure that all farmers, whereuir located, can sell their crops at uniform proces and obtain inputs, farmers have no 1/ For instance, 20 tons of general cargo or 29 tons of copper constitute a full load for similar trucks. ANNEX 12 Page 8 incentives to transport their own produce or to buy inputs beyond the nearest NAMB depot. Thus, NAMB itself has to secure transport from there onward for crops and to the depots for inputs. 1/ 27. In remote areas, NAMB is also requested both by small farmers and cooperatives to move products between farm and depot, and it accepts when a full load is ensured. Although about 90% of the commercial farmers carry pro- duce from farm to nearest depot in vehicles they own--either in trucks or tractor-trailers--few small farmers do so (in some places, oxen-drawn rubber- wheeled carts are available). In addition, most of the few agricultural cooperatives that have been formed lack their own transportation. There are few transport cooperatives and almost no local trucking contractors out of the line-of-rail, and most of the latter are unwilling to undertake haulage on the lower-class roads in remote areas because their units are generally too large for these roads. 28. The official policy is that NAMB should use the railway whenever possible because its rates are considerably lower than those for private road- haulage (about 1/10 for essential products) and the economic cost to the country is probably also lower. However, since the track serves only a limit- ed area and services are not always available when needed, 2/ transport by road is more important, in terms of both volume and value, than by rail. (The TAZARA will probably attract freight now carried by road, but the extent is still uncertain.) 29. Each year NAMB estimates its road transport requirement for the next- season and then tries to ensure its availability. Transporters are invited to present proposals, including rates, to a tender in Lusaka. Bids are re- viewed by a Tender Committee chaired by the Minister of Commerce. The Director of Marketing from the MRD and a representative from the MPTW are among its members; the General Manager of NAMB also attends but is not a member. Con- tracts are awarded mainly on the basis of past performance, for one season, for a specific route, and for a certain allocation of tons, at a fixed rate per ton-km. When contracts are issued, transporters and NAMB provincial managers are notified. The latter control the fulfillment of the contracts and may revoke them in case of contravention; about five persons from head- quarters carry out spot checks. 1/ As explained elsewhere, NAMB is the agency responsible for implementing agricultural policy related to essential products and, for that purpose, operates Government uniform pricing system--in simlified terms: the same price for a specific product at any place--and an operational sys- tem with numerous depots. 2/ For example, when input stock replacement is required immediately, and delays of 14 days are probable by ZR, motor vehicles can be used even along the rail route. ANNEX 12 Page 9 30. At NAMB's depots, only its staff can load or unload the trucks. A waybill is issued upon loading and signed at the unloading place as a receipt. Thereafter, it is submitted to Lusaka headquarters. (Transporters generally present them personally but can mail or deliver them to the NAMB District Man- ager.) The Transport Officer checks and confirms the bills which are then paid by the Freight Officer within two weeks, on two paydays per month. Pay- ment can be mailed upon request. The Freight Section notifies 1/ the Tax Department for income tax control. 31. For the 1973-74 season, contracts were awarded to private trans- porters 2/ at the rates prevailing for the previous seven years. However, in September 1974, NAMB increased the tariffs by 50%, apparently to attract more transporters. The rate level theoretically compensates for an empty return trip, so when the return trip is also a loaded one, only half the rate is paid for it. NAMB rates are: ngwee/ton - km. 1974 - Distance Maize, Fertilizer /2 Cotton (km) Up to 80 7.50 9 From 81 to 160 6.75 9 Over 160 6.00 9) /1 It is interesting to note that the ZTRS rate per ton-km is 2.35 and that CH's rates range from 1.2 to 4.6 (Tables 9 and 10); subcontractors receive 90% of these rates, a level which is still profitable. However, these organizations may have lower operating costs than NAMB's contractors because they use better standard roads wqhich are generally paved, and they also use trucks more efficiently, as measured in loading averages and waiting times. /2 And other products, such as sunflower, beans, groundnuts, insecticides, pesticides. 32. During 1973, NAMB transported about 100 million ton-km, at a cost to the institution of about K 4.6 million. 3/ Handling and storage costs were about 15% of the transport cost. Details are shown in the following table: 1/ We don't know if only upon request, or as a general rule. 2/ In June 1974, NAMB had a total transport capacity of 12,150 tons provided by 545 trucks, owned by 135 contractors. It is interesting to,note that to service the whole country, 69% of the contractors reside in Lusaka, and the remaining in only 20 more localities (Table 8). 3/ This is not necessarily undesirable; it depends on the individual and combined transport and agricultural policy objectives. ANNEX 12 Page 10 NAMB Transport: Handling and Storage Costs, 1973 ('000 K) Transport Cost Storage & Handling Sundry Crops Sub- (Head Province Maize & Produce Fertilizer Cotton Total Offices) Total Central 830 27 2,661 33 3,551 527 4,078 Copperbelt 394 1 185 - 580 54 634 Eastern 6 - 79 - 85 9 94 Luapula 67 1 69 - 137 21 158 North Western 24 - 6 - 30 8 38 Southern 87 1 74 1 163 31 194 Western 28 - 18 - 46 9 55 Total 1,436 30 3,092 34 4,592 659 5,251 Source: NAMB, 1974. 33. In 1974, with unit transport rates 50% higher, total transport costs must have increased considerably. For instance, for only 15 days during the peak season in mid-November, K 514,173 were paid to 94 transporters. Given the uniform crop and fertilizer pricing system, these steep transport costs have to be absorbed bv NAMB. Products with the heaviest weight-volume ratio or the lowest price receive comparatively the largest cost reduction in transport, a reduction which is not proportionately reflected in crop prices. Consequently, farmers partly lose the incentive to use their land for the crops to which it is most suited and this may result in distorted production patterns. For ex- ample, the transport cost from various places and the percentage of this cost in various crop and fertilizer prices are shown below: ANNEX 12 Page 11 Transport cost, as % of Crop Price/ Approx. kms Transport Ground- Cotton Fertilizer to Cost1. /3 Province Locality rail line K/ton-1 Maize Y>ht nuts Seed price- E Lundazi 745 44.70 81 34 21 15 56 E Chipata 570 34.20 62 26 16 11 43 E Katete 490 29.40 53 22 14 10 37 E Petauke 410 24.60 45 18 12 8 31 L Kawambwa 415 24.90 45 19 12 8 31 Samfya 260 15.60 28 12 7 5 20 N Mbala 810 48.60 88 37 23 16 61 Kasama 645 38.70 70 29 18 13 48 NW Zambezi 690 41.40 75 31 19 14 52 ICasempa 360 21.60 39 16 10 7 27 Solwezi 175 10.50 19 8 5 3 13 W Senanga 695 41.70 76 31 20 14 52 Mongu 585 35.10 64 26 16 12 44 /1 At 6 n/ton-km. /2 Not all crops are produced in all places; therefore, some relations may be irrelevant. The prices NAMB pays producers are in K/ton: maize, 55; wheat, 133; groundnuts, 213; cotton seed, 300 (1974). /3 Average fertilizer price to farmers in K 80/ton. Source: Author's elaboration of data from various sources, 1975. Fertilizer is provided to farmers far below cost: about 30% of the import- transport cost to the line-of-rail is subsidized (para. 32), and then there is an additional internal distribution cost subsidy. As shown in the previous table, internal transport subsidies amount to as much as 60% of the NAMB fertilizer price. However, because of the distribution system, this percentage is somewhat misleading. If imports were not all taken to the line-of-rail first and subsequently distributed to the various provinces, but were instead sent there directly, then travel distances would be shorter, with correspond- ingly lower costs. For instance, if fertilizer is imported from'Dar es Salaam, then the trip to Lusaka and back to Mbala on the Tan Zam corridor is completely unnecessary. As opposed to transport rates, NAMB retail prices ire different in various locations, and the price differentials seem to reflect differentials in transport costs from origin. International 34. Agricultural food products account for more than 10% of the value of imports and many of the empty trips to the ports are attributable to these imports. Apart from the railway, which is used for priority transport, CH un- dertakes most of the international agricultural haulage with the CPO fleet, ANNEX 12 Page 12 and the resulting empty trips cost the Government, which subsidizes them, K 750 each. The importance of transport cost in the total product cost can be clearly seen by looking at some examples: 1'/ Wheat Sunflower-oil Fertilizer Imported from: Australia Europe Europe Through the port of: - Lobito Beira Dar es Salaam Total transport time to Zambia, days: 38 - 44 45 - 50 55 K/ton FOB cost 52.90 386.00 62.90 Transport cost - excluding empty truck trip cost: 57.00 101.00 56.41 - including ! 1 87.51 151.00 91.82 CIF cost - subsidized (current): 109.90 467.00 119.31 - if non-subsidized: 140.41 537.00 154.72 Subsidized transport cost, as % of CIF current cost: 52 21 47 Total transport cost, as % of CIF current cost: 80 31 77 Transport subsidy, as %/ of CIF current cost: 28 10 30 /1 Apparently, orienting imports through the port which entails the shortest sea route does not reduce the sea-freight tariff. In the three cases, ports other than the nearest have been used. 1/ As given by CPO, 1974, and author's elaboration. Current 1973 values. ANNEX 12 Page 13 PART II--CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Transport Policy General 35. Even though recommendations about general transport policy may seem out of nlace in this survey, transport policy constitutes a framework for, and strongly affects agriculture and rural development. For this reason, findings related to policy are first presented, followed by transport recom- mendations which are more specifically agricultural-related. 36. Zambia's transport strategy seems consistent with its overall objec- tives policy, but, as in the case of agriculture, some aspects of the strategy should be reviewed and adapted to present and foreseeable conditions and its implementation improved. It must be kept in mind that external factors are given. Zambia has to adapt to some of them, as in the case of seaport avail- ability (and probably one of the best ways of easing trade flows is by conti- nuing its present routing procedure). On the other hand, in dealing with factors such as the border closure, Zambia has an active, decision-making role. The country will sooner or later reach an agreement with Rhodesia about reopen- ing the border, and another rail outlet to the sea will become available. In the meantime, Zambia should avoid building up excess long-term transport capacity. Infrastructure Development 37. Roads. Past and planned network development seems to be in line with the country's needs. Previously, interest was mainly concentrated on developing primary links, but more recently, emphasis is also being given to feeder roads. It is increasingly recognized that additional local rural-road building can be meaningfully undertaken only after an overall agricultural development policy is established (para. 17). When a specific agricultural strategy is agreed upon, planning awareness at headquarters, combined with a more vigorous implementation of the decentralization policy, under which local authorities will participate more in the decision-making and implementation processes in their own regions, should facilitate road work, the need for which is identified in agricultural strategy. However, the following aspects of infrastructure development should be reviewed: (a) Phasing of outstanding SNDP projects (para. 13): About 70% of the Plan remains to be completed. Completing the projects within the plan period would involve tripling the present road construction budget. Even if funds were available, it seems more appropriate to continue the present pace of road construction over a longer period of time. This would avoid wide fluctuations in demand for contrac- tor services, as has been the case in the Dast (Part III--Roads). These fluctuations make it difficult for the contractor to determine ANNEX 12 Page 14 how much he should invest in equipment. Smaller contractors cannot compete under such conditions, and the market has become increasingly oligopolistic. (b) Capability of local agencies (paras. 15 and 16): Having been given greater responsibilities, local agencies require additional planning skills and coordination. A local road inventory should be undertaken so that funds for road maintenance can be properly assigned. Both the RC and the Agricultural Offices undertake local road works separately, but if these works were instead assigned to only one agency, implementation costs could probably be reduced by pooling resources, and specialized staff and equipment could be used more appropriately and spare parts stock reduced. Agricultural Offices should turn their road works over to the RC. (c) Recurrent funds and staff (para. 16): Solving shortages of recur- rent funds for road maintenance and of qualified staff has been recognized in Zambia as a first priority, but little has been done about it. Funds are not allocated to RC on the basis of estimated road maintenance requirements and are generally less than requested. Given a lack of information about maintenance requirements, even these requests do not necessarily reflect actual needs. Because of obviously insufficient road maintenance allocations, RC is eager to transfer roads to RD for maintenance. However, RD recurrent expenditure for the roads under its jurisdiction--which in 1973 actually decreased K 3.5 million from the 1971 expenditure level-- is so inadequate that road maintenance is endangered. Additional funds for RD maintenance activities are urgently required to prevent further negative consequences of inadequate services. To alleviate the shortage of qualified Zambians in the RD, the major problems that have to be dealt with are lack of technical training and overwhelming competition from the private sector for the services of those Zambians who are technically qualified. More technical training programs and a review of civil service salary level and structure are needed. 38. Railways. Some proposals have been made for building a new section which will link with the Malawi system (para. 23) at the Zambia border at Mchinii. Such a link from Mchiniji to Chipata may be economically justified, but a track further northward than this to link with TAZARA is probably not, since it would have to climb very steep gradients from the Luangwa Valley to the plateau, with high construction and operation costs. A feasibility study seems required. Transport Services 39. Carrving capacity is apparently enough for the country's needs. However, certain policies, regulations, and procedures of some parastatals impede the rendering of adequate services. NAMB transport improvement propo- sals are made in Part II--Agricultural-Related Transport. More general recom- mendations are: ANNEX 12 Page 15 (a) Parastatal tariff policy (paras. 17 and 18): This is the aspect of transport services which requires most careful attention. Both road and railway tariff levels for various commodity classes should be analyzed. The interrelationships among them, the relation to operating costs and subsidies--if applicable--and immediate and ultimate effect on the overall economy should also be analyzed. This suggests the need for a traffic study, with an evaluation of all parastatal transport organization operations. (b) ZTRS dissolution (para. 19): The rationale for ceasing 7T=S o-er3 tions should be identified in the study mentioned above. However, a decision will certainly be required beforehand, in view of the imminent opening of the Tan-Zam railway. In any case, ZTRS' vehicle fleet will remain available to Zambia, a fact that should be remem- bered when estimating additional trucking capacity requirements. (c) Road traffic regulations (para. 21): All regulations and enforce- ment should be reviewed. Implementation of some of the following suggestions should improve road transport services by private operators: Decentralization: licensing in other places besides Lusaka should ease the procedure. Road Traffic Commissioner's authority: he is allowed to make decisions "as he may think fit," and in license granting it is not clear how much influence the Road Transport Panel has. It should be determined whether this leads to arbitrari- ness, and, if so, the situation should be corrected. Goods road-service licensing conditions: the restrictlveness of these conditions hampers transport activiites. Gradually, freer operations should be permitted. 1/ / For instance, we would suggest deleting the following from licenses: a) License specification of route(s)/area and type of goods: a strict specification does not allow for the operational flexibility that would ease, for instance, seasonal peaks. Neither does it help to ensure services on non-profitable routes because there is 'no incentive to apply for a license to operate on them. A broad specification would have the same effect as no specification. b) Rate specification: the broad influence of the ZTRS, CH and NAMB, which establish their own fares, seems to outweigh the rates established by the RTC for independent operators. However, if other rates were to be the charged, they should be established by free competition. At most, if the RTC thinks that the truckers would overcharge if at limit is not imposed on them, a methodology for determining rates cou]d be set up and the RTC could sample control the rates charged for some services to see that they do not exceed their estimates. c) Short-term license: since subcontractors to parastatal organizations are almost automatically given a license once they have secured a con- tract, the issuance of these licenses represents nothing, more than an administrative burden on the RTC. The regular license and fitness certificate, required anyway, should suffice. ANNEX 12 Page 16 Bus tariffs: the only established tariff per km does not take into consideration the type of road on which the service is provided. Allowing tariffs to reflect costs would motivate operators to provide services on low-standard roads. 1/ Axle-load control: most operators, including the parastatals, load more than 10 tons per axle in order to maximize benefits per trip. The Roads Department is in charge of operating existing weighbridges, but its staff does not have enforcing capacity and only operates the weighbridges a few hours daily. As a first measure to improve axle-load control, management of the ZTRS, CH and NAMB should ensure operators' compliance with the weight limits at loading points. In addition, the existing weighbridges should be operated by RTC officers 24-hours a day or on an ad hoc basis, and contravening operators should be penalized according to the law. Fees and fines: in order to determine the economic adequacy of these fees and fines, they should be reviewed, taking into account other taxes that vehicle operators pay, including fuel tax, import duties, and income tax. 40. Although to a certain extent Zambia has to accept international transport services as given, the country's approach to providing them seems satisfactory (paras. 23-25). Considering that more than 50% of Zambian traffic went through Rhodesia before 1973, the rerouting effort has been rather successful. In 1973, import tonnage decreased about 40%, partly due to deliberate restrictions on import licenses, while export tonnage continued as previously. Even so, transport costs increased considerably, from about K 67 million to K 87 million, 2/ and the increase has been financed almost entirely by the Government. However, the effects and desirability of the transport subsidy that the Government grants to imports should be reviewed. Its impact on agriculture is discussed in para. 42. 1/ Presumably, in charging the same rate per km the intention is that all passengers be treated equally. But private operators avoid providing services on low-standard roads (unless they operate simultaneously on good and poor routes, cross-subsidizing the latter), with the result that people in remote areas may lack transport services unless UBZ pro- vides them at a loss. People might prefer paying a higher fare which would be attractive to private operators, instead of doing without services. These aspects should be reviewed. 2/ This resulted f rom higher inland transport costs, higher port charges, greater airways utilization, and a change in import origin. Many imports previously bought from the Republic of South Africa are now purchased in Europe, which was the origin of about 55% of Zambian imports in 1972, but of 80% since 1973. ANNEX 12 Page 17 Agriculture-Related Transport Internal 41. NAMB virtually determines the framework for internal transport, Some deficiencies in its operations, result in a trucking capacity shorltage. Although some officials even suggest that NAMB should have its own fleet, the following recommendations concentrate on improving NAMB effectiveness. If implemented, it seems likely that truck availability will increase and transport needs and costs will decrease. (a) Agricultural pricing policy (para. 26): if uniform product prices were eliminated, production would increasingly reflect the comparative advantage of areas, uneconomic transport of low value crops would be avoided, and total transport requirements reduced. Moreover, with crop returns no longer insulated from transport costs a farmer would be encouraged to seek the lowest cost means of transport and may even feel encouraged to take care of his own transportation needs. Competitive, more efficient and overall lower-cost transportation services would develop. Also, the introduction of a seasonal pricing system would encourage on-farm storage, enhance farmers' incomes, and spread peak transport demand. Simulta- neously, NAMB's burdens would decrease and the agency could then operate as a clearing agent. Regional transport shortages (para. 27) would be alleviated. (b) Planning and coordination (para 29): an improved estimate of local consumption needs would make it possible to avoid exporting more than surplus produce from any area, which requires subsequent imports of the same type. This would eliminate many costly and unnecessary trips. Better coordination in timing loads in both directions (fertilizer and other inputs and crop extraction) would also avoid empty trips. In order to carry out these improvements, depot availability (capacity, type and location) should be reviewed. (c) Trucker contracts (para. 29): NAMB contracts specify the route and tons each truck will carry. Once the operator has obtained a con- tract, he has no incentive to provide services quickly. If, instead, contracts specified only the route, and mentioned the total tonnage to be moved on it by all trucks, the various truckers for that route would have to compete to carry as much as possible of that tonnage and therefore would probably proceed faster. Axle-load control would then become even more important. An arrangement should be worked out with the RTC to eliminate seasonal licensing requirements (but with registration remaining obligatory). (See para. 39, Goods road-service licensing conditions.) Only smaller trucks should be granted the routes on low-standard roads. At present the 30- or more-ton trucks travel on any type of road indiscriminately, which breaks up the lower-standard roads and increases vehicle operating costs and number of breakdowns. ANNEX 12 Page 18 (d) Decentralization (paras. 29 and 30): most contractors have to go to Lusaka to get contracts and collect subsequent payments, and this causes unnecessary trips for contractors who serve remote areas locally. The possibility of contracting and paying in re- gional NAMB headquarters should be investigated. Many international agricultural exports have to be arranged through NAMB. Generally, they are first sent to Lusaka and subsequently exported. This involves excessive trips, since some products have to come and go over the same route. The possibility of avoiding this should be examined. Both these problems could be solved by effective decentralization of administration and financial control. (e) Loading/unloading (para. 30): these operations can be under taken only by NAMB staff, are performed slowly, and result in truck queues and corresponding delays and costs, which worsen seasonal peaks, and raise trucking costs by as much as 100%. In addition, trucks are loaded with more weight than the RTC has authorized them to carry. NAMB staff should be properly trained and supervised, and perhaps some operations should be mechanized in order to accelerate the operation. The staff should be responsible for loading no more than the bags equivalent to the truck's net load-weight limit. (See para. 38, Axle-load control). Simultaneously, truckers could perhaps be authorized to assist with loading and unloading. (f) Transport tariffs (para. 31): Present NAMB tariff levels seem unrelated to operational costs and are not differentiated by the type of road on which services have to be provided. Adequate finan- cial operating cost estimates should be obtained for various sizes of trucks on different road surfaces and tariffs established for trips on earth, gravel, and paved roads. Differentiation by type of product does not reflect the weight-volume relation. Thus maize transport is the most profitable to, and preferred by truckers, who try to avoid hauling cotton, for instance. Therefore, the weight-volume ratio should also be taken into account for fixing tariff differentials. International 42. At present, import transport costs are partially subsidized by the Government in order to keep internal prices as low as possible. This policy to protect consumer prices means that, at the same time, an artifically low import opportunity cost reduces incentives to produce local substitutes. For instance, the wheat import subsidy of about 30% (para. 32) is probably enough to offset interest in exploiting local potential. Even worse, NAMB producer prices are even lower than border prices. 43. If a policy of subsidizing consumer prices is to be continued, Zambia may be better off subsidizing its own agricultural activities rather than imports. Even if agricultural imports are replaced by local production, a considerably underutilized export capacity remains available, including ANNEX 12 Page 19 air services, and the possibility of agricultural exports, at almost no additional transportation cost to the country, should be considered. In order to encourage production for export, agricultural exports could be granted a subsidy, perhaps by reducing transport costs. Even a reduced tariff would decrease Government's overall subsidy cost. However, real costs of inputs and outputs should be calculated in order to evaluate the net effect of the subsidies, at various levels, on the producers. An effort should also be made to optimize coordination of transport and agriculture policies. PART III--ROADS AND ROAD TRANSPORT Roads Existing Network 44. Zambia's road network is one of the most developed in Africa, both in density per km2 or per inhabitant, and in quality. It comprises about 34,500 km of roads, of which about 4,000 km are paved, 7,400 km are gravel all-weather roads and 7,200 km are classified earth roads. These roads are maintained by the Roads Department (RD) of the MPTW. The remaining 15,900 km are unclassified earth roads and are maintained by the Rural Councils (RC). No updated and reliable inventory exists for these roads, and the 15,900 km figure is merely an RD estimate. Although there are also local tracks, no details are available about them. 45. The Roads and Road Traffic Act (RRTA) 1/ classifies the roads as interterritorial, main territorial, district, branch, rural, and estate roads. The Minister of .IPTW designates the roads and assigns each to a corresponding highway authority. A summary of the designated network length by type of road and by province is given in Table 1.1; the corresponding standards are shown in Table 1.2, and the generally accepted functional definitions of roads are given in Table 1.3. 46. The network has been developed and upgraded according to traffic requirements. Thus, the three provinces along the line-of-rail, with the highest population density and, until recently, the only main line for inter- national traffic, have the highest density of roads per km2 and the lowest length of road per capita. The provinces with more scattered populations have lower ratios of m/km2. Their roads are also largely lower standar!d, but the relative length per inhabitant is longer. The national averages are about 50 m/km2 2/ and 7 m/person. Densities by province are shown in Table 2. 1/ Chapter 766 of the Laws of Zambia. 2 Compared with 630 m/km in USA, 70 in Kenya, 20 in Tanzania, 30 in Zaire, 190 in Rhodesia. ANNEX 12 Page 20 47. The main paved network includes the north-south road, which runs from the Rhodesia border at Livingstone to the Zaire border at Chingola (885 km) and is parallel to the line-of-rail; the Great North Road which branches off from the north-south at Kapiri Mposhi and reaches the Tanzania border at Tunduma (810 km); the Great East Road which extends from Lusaka to the Malawi border near Chipata (590 km); three western links, one from Lusaka to Mongu (585 km), another from Chingola to Solwezi in the north (180 km), a third from Livingstone to Shesheke in the south (180 km); and, finally, a southern link to Rhodesia (80 km) and a paved section in the Luapula Province, from Mansa to Chembe (80 km) (Map IBRD 11509). 48. Traffic density on the highways increases near urban regional centers, especially close to Lusaka. The main north-south road carries the highest traf- fic volume, in some sections about 3,500 vpd, 80% of which is light vehicles, and circulates in congested flow conditions. The other main roads generally carry not more than 600 vpd, but on these roads heavy vehicles account for 50% to 80% of the total. On the all-weather gravel roads, traffic is usually below 200 vpd. Unclassified roads serve few vehicles but reflect heavy sea- sonal variation as they are mainly related to agricultural activities. Road standards are generally adequate for traffic requirements, but the lack of maintenance endangers continued adequacy. Recent Developments 49. Zambia's authorities previously focused their attention on develop- ing the primary network first, and only now is emphasis shifting to improving or opening local lower-class rural roads. During the 10 years since independ- ence, the considerable amount of K 170 million has been spent on road construc- tion and about 2,750 km of the existing 4,000 km of paved roads have been built, 800 km of them in the first three years (1972-1974) of the SNDP. In addition, 2,200 km of gravel roads have been constructed or reconstructed. 50. The SNDP is very ambitious and includes main road projects (includ- ing some begun previously) at an estimated cost of K 67 million, excluding the cost of the externally-financed Samfya-Serenje Road. Actual cost esti- mates for the road program vary from K 86 million (MPF) to K 118 million (MPTW4). However, the former fast pace of road improvement has steadily slowed, and only about 25% of the SNDP was implemented by 1974 when 60% of the plan period had elapsed, as shown in Table 4. The SNDP also includes K 23 million in its Provincial Investment Program for district roads, bridges, and buildings (Table 5), but no information on implementation status was forthcoming. Short road sections, not under the SNDP, have also been initiated and completed. 51. Since 1962. traffic on this improved network has been increasing at an average of 7%/annum. and at about 20%/annum on the main roads, even before the border was closed. The size of heavy vehicles has also gradually increased, and units up to 50 tons use the network. ANNEX 12 Page 21 Current Plans 52. Although only two years of the plan period are left, about 75% of the SNDP remains to be carried out. Furthermore, the MPF has added new main road sections to be upgraded and expects about 30% of the program to be carried out after 1976. Because this implies annual 1975 and 1976 budgets at about 3-times previous levels, the implementation rate will probably be slower than MPF expects. 53. Mainly, the plans call for the upgrading to paved standards of main-road extensions and branches in areas not in the line-of-rail. These extensions and branch roads are required for agricultural development as much as the local feeder roads which are provided for under the Provincial Investment Program, in order to facilitate transport of required inputs and access to markets over the long distances between production and consumption centers. The most important roads to be upgraded are links to the Great North Road, from Serenje to Samfya and from Mpika to Kasama and to Mbala; the extension of the main road near the Zaire border from Solwezi to Ikelenge in the North Western Province; the extension of the Great East Road from Chipata to Chama following the Malawi border, and a connection from Mongu to Senanga in the Western Province. The direct link between the Copperbelt and Luapula, in Zaire, is also being paved. The MPTW has additionally indicated the advantages of paving several road sections branching off from the main north-south road, some short access roads that carry about 150 vpd, and the sections from Mansa to Kawambwa and from Mansa to Samfya in the Luapuia Province (Table 4). In addition to the SNDP, the RC prepare plans on an annual basis for roads of local importance. Related Institutions 54. Several institutions deal with road construction and maintenance: the MPTW, through its Roads Department (RD), the Rural Councils through the Public Works Department (PWD), and, to a lesser extent, the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD). The Minister of the MPTW allocates roads to RD and RC. The Mechanical Services Department (MSD) of the MPTW is in charge of purchas- ing, maintaining and repairing all Government-owned equipment, but the agen- cies can utilize private services instead of MSD, and the agencies, especially the RC, do so, since in the past the MSD has not been very efficeint The Government has taken action to improve this department and better services should be forthcoming. 55. Roads Department of MPTW. This Department is responsible for main- taining all the roads, bridges, airfields, and harbors supervised by the Ministry, that is, maintenance of 18,600 km of designated roads and of minor harbor installations such as Mongu, Mpulungu, and Samfya; it is also responsible for the implementation of national public-works construction plans. Maintenance and construction of airfields is carried out on behalf of the Department of Civil Aviation, from whom funds are warranted. This sec- tion will deal only with those aspects of RD that pertain to roads. ANNEX 12 Page 22 Staff and Training 56. RD organization is shown in Chart 1. The Department has a total of about 4,900 employees. The approximately 4,400 daily-paid posts, as well as about 400 industrial and administrative posts are generally filled, but at times as much as 50% of the 175 technical and engineering positions remain vacant; there is, for example, no engineer in the design office. This situa- tion seriously hampers the activities of the Department. 57. There is a shortage of qualified Zambians. Only one of the 20 top technical positions is filled by a Zambian executive engineer, but there are 6 national engineering assistants. The Department runs a fully-equipped Roads Training School that can accommodate up to 50 students per course. A variety of subjects at various levels are taught, and courses normally last from one to three months. The school has been operating for more than 10 years and has gradually increased the number of graduates from 61 in 1965 to about 170 a year since 1972. Further training is encouraged and already a number of the engineering assistants have attended diploma courses at the Zambia Institute of Technology at Kitwe, and some Zambian technical staff are studying for an engineering degree at the University of Zambia. 58. The Government intends to progressively Zambianize the Department, but the present situation is likely to continue for several years, even if training programs are accelerated, because the private sector attracts most graduates (after they have served a few years in Civil Service) and resident expatriates, due to the Zambian Civil Service salary structure and level. In addition, inadequate overseas advertisement makes expatriate recruitment difficult. Another complicating factor is that expatriate recruitment has to proceed continuously due to, among other factors, the short contracts offered. A housing shortage also imposes restrictions. Financing 59. Funds for capital works (new construction or improvements) are gen- erally allocated directly to the Department, although certain projects are carried out on behalf of, and financed by, other Ministries or on behalf of provincial administrations using Development of Feeder-Road Funds. The latter funds, however, generally remain directly under the control of the respective Provincial Permanent Secretaries. Authorized funds for this purpose amounted to approximately K 2 million in 1974. ANNEX 12 Page 23 60. For recent years, funds spent by RD have been as follows: Roads (K million) Capital Recurrent Total 1971 15.3 8.3 23.6 1972 12.3 5.3 17.6 1973 4.3 4.8 9.1 1974 (authorized) 8.3 5.6 13.9 61. Detailed expenditures for 1973 are shown in Table 11. Of the low capital budget of K 6.2 million, only K 4.3 million was spent, surprisingly low compared to previous years' levels. Planned expenditures comprised 42% of the MPTW capital budget, or 6% of the national budget. In 1974, the RD had 37% of the MPTW authorized capital expenditure, or 5% of the total. The recurrent expenditure is so far below requirements that road maintenance is endangered. Planning and Design 62. The planning unit undertakes feasibility studies, which have been primarily technical up to now, with economic considerations limited largely to traffic counts. When a road reaches the upper-limit traffic design level (Table 1.2), it becomes a priority for upgrading, and the work is undertaken as funds are available. Traffic counts are conducted periodically on the roads that the RD maintains, and new counting stations are installed on those low-class roads where traffic apparently justifies road upgrading. In 1969, a transport survey covering all modes was carried out by BCEOM, which made recommendations for an investment plan, but no similar survey has been carried out since the border closure. Little planning coordination exists among the several ministries involved or affected by road construction. 63. The design office prepares the designs for smaller works, stuch as widening or upgrading. Most feeder road projects, aerodrome improvements, and minor bridges are prepared by the RD when possible. There has been a growing trend for other ministries to request designs, but the RD lacks the staff necessary to execute them. Important projects are designed and super- vised by consultants. Road standards are specified in Table 1.2. Construction 64. Expenditures for construction by force account are almost as high as those for work done by contractors. Capital funds allocated in 1974 amounted to K 8.3 million, 2 million more than in 1973 but still low compared to the K 15.4 million allocated in 1971. This is reflected in a widely varying volume of ongoing works. As a result, the number of contractors has actually decreased in past years and the market has become increasingly dominated by those few who can risk investing in equipment beyond average requirements. To finish the SNDP on schedule, the rate of work would have to be tripled. ANNEX 12 Page 24 65. According to the RD annual reports, the construction rate has been as follows: Construction (km) Class I ~II III By Contract 1971 301 - 103 1972 459 - 200 1973 150 15 97 By Force Account 1971 33 23 86 1972 - 11 109 1973 155 66 Maintenance 66. The RD is supposed to maintain about 18,600 km of rural roads and, in addition, roads within major urban areas, such as Lusaka, Ndola, and Kitwe. The RC can request that the RD take over feeder roads on which traffic has increased or which have been upgraded, but this is only done to the extent that funds are available and is generally avoided. Maintenance is implemented on a decentralized basis, with headquarters in each province. 67. For routine maintenance, the areas are split up into 125 zones, each including approximately 180 km of road. Road camps are located about 80 km apart on main roads and are provided with a minimum of a grader and a lorry and about 20 persons under a Road Foreman. (A Road Superintendent is responsible for the supervision of four road camps and he reports to a Road Inspector under the Provincial Road Engineer.) Present yearly maintenance cost estimates 1/ per km are K 230 for paved roads, K 190 for gravel roads and K 60 for earth roads. 68. Periodic regravelling, on an average of every four years, is some- times carried out departmentally, using provincial regravelling units if sufficient equipment is available, or is alternatively handled by contract. An individual contract rarely costs more than K 150,000. All paved roads are designed to be resealed in three- to six-year intervals, depending on road standards and traffic wear, or to be covered with at least 5 cm of premix within ten years of construction. In practice, however, only when resealing becomes urgent are funds made available for this purpose. The work is generally carried out under contract, with RD design, documentation and super- vision. Periodic maintenance has taken place as follows: 1/ November 1974. ANNEX 12 Page 25 Betterment (km) Resealing Regravelling Other By Contract 1971 - 947 - 1972 30 201 173 1973 57 175 56 By Force Account 1971 165 144 - 1972 80 356 4 1973 - 207 36 69. Despite awareness of the importance of maintenance both in the MPTW and in the MPF and the increasing traffic volume and length of roads to be maintained, authorized expenditure has decreased continuously and is now only about half the required level, or K 5.6 million in 1974 compared with a requirement of K 11 million (based on apparently low unit costs). Continuing maintenance activities at this inadequate level threatens the capital invested in the road network. 70. A serious shortage of plant and vehicles, intensified by a lack of spare parts, hampers RD activities, especially maintenance. According to the decentralization policy, the provinces are to become self-sufficient in the supply of vehicles, spare parts, and adequate maintenance. Although each maintenance zone should ideally be equipped with 1 Land Rover, 1 flat truck or tipper, 1 grader, 1 front/end loader, and 1 water tanker, only 167 vehicles are serviceable. The RD evaluated its additional needs at 270 vehicles and more funds will have to be made available to achieve this. The RD generally has to hire vehicles from private firms and from the MSD, which further reduces funds available for maintenance. Normally, only the MSD should repair and maintain RD vehicles. 71. Besides poor maintenance, the roads suffer from the effects of overloaded trucks. To control weights, RD has installed 6 weighbridges since 1971, at Kafulafuta, Kapiri Mposhi, Mpika, Tunduma, Mwami, and Solwezi, and another is planned for Mumbwa. However, these weighbridges operate only during working hours and when offending drivers are detected, the RD agents can do little about it since they are not law-enforcing agents and thus cannot order drivers to offload. Public Works Department of Rural Councils 72. The Public Works Departments (PWD) of the RC are responsibie for all types of works of local importance in their districts, including construc- tion and maintenance of the roads for which they are designated authiority by the MPTW. Staff 73. The PWD generally has a Works Officer, an Assistant Senior Works Officer, an Assistant Works Officer and a variable number of Works Foremen, ANNEX 12 Page 26 on a permanent basis, and equipment operators. People with the broad experi- ence required to carry out all kinds of works are usually unavailable or dif- ficult to attract due to low salary levels. So, to carry out the road works, a contract is generally made with an experienced man in the district who, on a temporary basis, subhires and supervises required unskilled labor. Financing 74. The RC budget is about K 5 million per year. About 75% of this revenue is collected from the beer surtax. In theory, the MLGH is to allocate half the resources according to population in each district. The other half is to be distributed according to deficits remaining after the population allocation, that is, the most active in presenting projects would obtain more funds. But in fact, funds are actually allocated on the basis of the 1969 budget, increased by about 5% each year. About 20% of the total is assigned to roads. This means that there is little relationship between needs and resources, and funds are generally less than RC requests. So the RC is then eager to transfer roads to the RD for maintenance. The MLGH has prepared an estimate for feeder roads maintenance per district for 1974, but the lack of information about km of roads maintained makes this exercise of dubious validity. Obtaining approved funds from headquarters has apparently presented no difficulties. The RC even have some flexibility; for instance, if a budget surplus results, it can be reserved for the following year, which prevents interruption of works at the beginning of the year when the new bud- get may still be awaiting approval. Planning and Design 75. As much as possible, the planning process follows the theoretical procedure, which starts at the local level, in accordance with decentraliza- tion policy. Local Village Productivity Committees, meeting twice a month, review proposals and then make recommendations to the Ward Committee, which meets monthly. Projects approved by the Ward Committee are reviewed by the District Development Committee (2.5 meetings/month) and then by the Provincial Development Committee (1 meeting/quarter), which recommends to Parliament which projects should be included in next year's budget. There is almost no coordination with other local agencies which may be undertaking road works in the districts. No designs are made. In most cases, new roads follow old paths or connect population centers. Sometimes, RD branch assistance is requested, but this has proven ineffective since the recommendations they give tend to be of such a high standard that they are beyond RC implementation possibilities. Works 76. Due to the low standard of the roads under the RC, no clear differ- entiation exists between construction and maintenance, and both are really a sort of upgrading. Costs differ from district to district, but they are usually low: about K 120/km for clearing, K 150/km for stumping, or K 230 for ANNEX 12 Page 27 opening a km of road. Generally, the work is done with minimum equipment. Maintenance costs vary from K 20 to K 50 per km for unskilled labor. Even so, the resulting roads seem quite satisfactory in some regions and aie used even by heavy vehicles, which the RC has no authority to stop or to deny circulation rights. Provincial Agricultural Offices of MRD 77. Extension workers travel in their areas, noting where farmers are beginning to produce enough to justify a new access road. When a nes,' road is opened, it is generally done on a self-help basis or with a grader from the Land Use Services Division under the Provincial Agricultural Office. New roads should be maintained by the Rural Councils, but in practice, because the RCs are short of funds, they are frequently assisted with MRD equipment. No information of how many km these offices are maintaining is available. Mechanical Services Department of MPTW 78. This Department buys and repairs all the Government equipment and vehicles, and is highly centralized even when its depots are located in the provinces. It has not been functioning well, mostly because of staffing and funding constraints. MSD has the same kind of staffing problems as RD, and, in addition, its apprentice system has been discontinued, so MSD now depends on graduates from other institutes. In 1973, MSD requested K 6.2 million for maintenance and repairs, but only K 5 million was authorized. The inadequate funding of MSD has produced a shortage of spare parts, made it imp, ossible to subcontract major overhauls to dealers, and virtually precluded the buying of equipment since 1971. For example, only K 3 million was authorized for pur- chasing new vehicles in 1973, as compared to the K 15 million requested. As a result, vehicles operating uneconomically have been kept in service. Road Transport Regulations 79. The Roads and Road Traffic Act, plus subsidiary regulat,lons, are very comprehensive. 1/ A Road Traffic Commissioner, assisted by a Deputy and an Assistant, all appointed by the Minister of the MPTW, is in charge of enforcing the regulations 2/ and appointing other officers (driving examiners, vehicle examiners and road traffic inspectors) as required. Licensing officers for specific areas are designated by the Minister. 1/ These are stated in Chapter 766 of the laws of Zambia. 2/ Axle-load limit compliance is not verified by the RTC staff, but by the RD. ANNEX 12 Page 28 80. Only those aspects of traffic regulations which are directly related to the transport of goods and passengers, excluding safety requirements, will be considered below. Vehicle Licensing 81. All vehicles must be registered and licensed. Initial applications for registration are made to the RTC by the owner of the vehicle and include a certificate by the manufacturer or customstating that the vehicle conforms to the specifications of the Act. After a fee is paid, a registration number and a registration book are issued. The officer may request an examination of the vehicle, and afterwards a test certificate is issued. Change of ownership also has to be registered within 14 days. The Director of Roads may exempt certain vehicles from licensing requirements. Vehicle licenses last 12, 6 or 3 months, and the owner pays respectively 100%, 50% or 30% of the established fees. The RTC may remit short-term license fees, such as those granted for carrying maize or farm produce from rural areas to collection centers. This can be done without a public sitting but the specified roads/areas must be published in the Gazette. Exclusive passenger-service concessions may be granted by the Minister. Revenues from fees and fines, which are assigned to General Revenues, are listed in Table 6. 82. Public service vehicles require a road service license. An inter- ested party presents an application to the Road Transport Panel.1/ The appli- cation is published in the Gazette at least 40 days before a decision is taken to allow any objections to be presented. Then the RTC and two members of the RTP decide on it during a public sitting in the Lusaka City Council chambers. (This group can issue licenses for Zambian citizens, but the Minister's approval is required for non-Zambians.) Several factors are considered in deciding whether or not to issue the license: the suitability of the proposed route(s); 1/ The application form for a road service license has to state: 1) Type of service to be provided, that is, "letting vehicles on hire" or "service of conveying for reward"; 2) Particulars of the road(s) or area it proposed to serve; 3) Various financial statements; 4) Reasons for alleging that existing transport on the road(s) or in the area proposed to be served, is inadequate; 5) Detail for each vehicle to be used: registration number; year of make; type and maximum tonnage/passengers it is desired to carry. Indication also of which vehicles should be used exclusively as replacement for a break-down of any other listed; 6) If a bus service, time-table or frequency of the service and the time to be taken by it should be given; 7) Rates to be charged for the proposed service (may be withheld from public inspection. ANNEX 12 Page 29 the adequacy of existing transport services on the route in question and the extent to which they may be adversely affected; whether the proposed service is in the public interest; the applicant's qualifications; any objections raised by those already providing services, by the authorities of the affected zone, or by the probable public; and, receipt of a certificate of vehicle fitness which is valid on the day the license goes into effect. 1/ Finally, the RTC decides the conditions of the license "as he may think fit". 2/ A license usually takes three months to be processed. When granted, a notice is pub- lished in the Gazette. Licenses are valid from one to five years, are not transferable, except by the Minister's authorization and may be revoked or changed if the RTC verifies that the specifications have not been complied with. The RTC keeps a register of all valid road service licenses, which is open to the public. If a license is not granted, appeals can be submitted within 30 days of the decision to the Road Service Appeal Tribunal and afterwards to the High Court. Any person operating a public service vehicle is supposed to keep related accounts as prescribed by the RTC and produce these for in- spection when requested. No goods vehicle or trailer licensed as private may be rented or used for commercial hauling. Vehicle Weights 83. The MPTW is responsible for fixing the maximum weight that may travel on the roads. 3/ The Minister issues regulations prescribing the maximum laden weight and the maximum axle weight, although the Director of Roads may grant exemptions. 4/ Part III, Section 12 of the Construction, Equipment and Use Regulations prescribe that: 1/ Fitness certificates are valid for 4 or 12 months when passenger or goods, vehicle, respectively. (It seems that the procedure for obtaininig them is slow.) 2/ The license contains: 1) Type of service; 2) Period of validity of the license; 3) Route(s) or areas where the service may be provided; 4) Base from which the service is to be operated; 5) Goods that may be carried; 6) Other uses for which the vehicle(s) may be let on hire; 7) Identification of each vehicle: registration mark, licensEd carrying capacity of the tractor or trailer if any, authorization date, number and date of expiring identify certificate, and if it is a "replace- ment" unit; 8) Conditions: that any rates that may be fixed for the letting of vehicles on hire be adhered to, as well as RRTA and its regulations; 9) For passenger services: frequency and/or time-table(s). 3/ The Act also prescribes that local authorities be consulted; this should probably be deleted because only a uniform weight limit throughout the country should be allowed. 4/ For instance, the CPO has allowed overloads in order to solve rerouting problems with the existing trucking fleet. ANNEX 12 Page 30 a) "the maximum laden weight of a vehicle shall not exceed the manufacturer's permitted gross weight of the vehicle, or 14,000 lbs. whichever is less," and b) "the maximum weight carried on any axle of a vehicle shall not exceed the manufacturer's permitted axle weight, or 10,000 lbs. 1/ whichever is less." 84. The gross weight--the maximum weight of goods or maximum number of passengers--authorized by the vehicle examiner during the fitness tests has to be conspicuously shown on the vehicle. If the limits are exceeded, "the operator is guilty of an offense." Actually, the ten-ton axle weights are often exceeded, but the Regulations do not give the vehicle examiner the authority to force the operator to unload or to pay the established fines. Vehicle Fleet 85. In 1973, there were 132,000 licensed vehicles in Zambia, or 3 per 100 inhabitants on average. This is a high ratio for an African country 2/ and reflects the relatively high income per capita. About 80% of this fleet consisted of light vehicles and less than 1% of buses. Trucks and trailers accounted for 15% of the total, or about 19,450 vehicles. From 1968-72, the fleet increased almost 9%/annum, with only slight variations by types (Table 3.1). Most vehicles are licensed in Lusaka, and no fleet statistics were available by area. Trucks added to the fleet are increasingly larger, but very few small units suitable for feeder roads are available. Yearly new registrations are considerable, about 12% of the fleet (Table 3.2). Although 85% of the new registrations are recorded in offices located along the line- of-rail (Table 3.3), this may not reflect regional vehicle availability. Vehicles outside the line-of-rail are probably not registered. 86. An important problem encountered by both private and public sectors is the difficulty of obtaining spare parts. Road Haulage 87. Trucks and trailers may be licensed for private use or for commercial purposes. Trucks with private licenses are theoretically not allowed to per- form any public road service. 88. As mentioned earlier, the Government prefers that public road services be performed by private operators but considers it to be its duty to deal with emergency situations to assure continuity of import-export flows 1/ This allowance seems very low. It may have been increased by subsequent amendments, since the RD considers the axle-load limit to be ten tons. This has to be verified. 2/ The vehicle-per-100-persons ratio is about I in Kenya, .5 Tanzania, 3 in Rhodesia, 1.4 in Zaire, and 53 in the USA. ANNEX 12 Page 31 at transportation costs similar to those in effect before the border closure and to ensure passenger services which private operators would probably not undertake. This continuity is maintained through the parastatal National Transport Corporation (NTC) composed of 4 subsidiaries: CH, ZTRS, UBZ and Bulk Carriers of Zambia. About 70% of the heavy vehicles in Zambia have private licenses. There is a large number 1/ of private trucking companies which perform public services, many of which operate as subcontractors to ZTRS and CH (which secure a license for the operator if he does not have one). Apparently there are only two transport cooperatives and no trucking union. 89. The extent to which truckers set their own tariffs is not clear, but ZTRS, CH and especially NAMB determine the overall level by contracting transport at their established rates. Contract Haulage (CH) 90. In 1970, the Transport Holdings of Zambia Company, initially called Central African Road Services (CARS), became a subsidiary of, and wholly- owned by NTC. Re-named Contract Haulage (CH), its functions are internal freight distribution and haulage in connection with the Republic of South Africa and Rhodesia. When the border was closed, the CPO purchased 400 30-ton trucks and gave them to CH for operation to assist in the emergency. 91. CH has its headquarters and a central workshop at Lusaka. It has its own fleet but hires subcontractors if necessary, paying them 90% of the fares received. Workshop services and fuel are made available to the subcontractors and these costs are deducted from payments due them. CH has three divisions, Freight South, Malawi Division and Northern Division. All carry internal freight at rates proposed by the company and approved by the MPTW 2/ and agricultural products for NAMB at its rates. The NortherrL Division also provides services to ZTRS and is supposed to make the empty trips from Zambia to Dar es Salaam, the cost of which is borne by CPO. The Malawi Division operates on the Great East Road particularly. Under an agreement with United Transport of Malawi, each company carries 50% of the international traffic in both directions, at tariffs agreed to by both Gov- ernments. CH has 4 mobile workshops operating on this route. 92. Since 1973, CH has operated at a profit. Operating costs anld tariffs are shown in Table 9, which indicates the high level of profits, especially at NAMB's rates. Zambia-Tanzania Road Services (ZTRS) 93. This company was started in 1966, and is 35% owned by the Zambia Government, 35% by the Tanzania Government and 30% by an Italian private company. It was set up to move Zambian cargo, especially copper, on the 1/ In 1968, 165. 2/ The rates are based on those established by Transport Holdings, and have not been revised to reflect subsequent road upgradings on various routes. ANNEX 12 Page 32 Tan Zam Road until the TAZARA becomes operational. The border closure has increased demand for its services, so it has continued to increase its vehicle fleet even though the railway is expected to start operations in 1975. 94. The company operates efficiently, with headquarters at Lusaka and its own workshops and depots along the route. The staff includes about 2,300 persons, some of whom work in Tanzania. The fleet is composed of about 520 32- or 35-ton trucks 1/ and a similar number of trailers, with which more than 300,000 tons a year were carried even before the border closure. In addition, ZTRS generally has more than 400 trucks under sub- contract, more than 200 of them from CH and the remaining from only seven contractors who may in turn have subcontracted them. ZTRS trucks, both its own and subcontracted, average only four-days travel time between Lusaka and Dar es Salaam. Terminal operations have been greatly improved since 1973. They previously took 5.5 days in Dar es Salaam and 7.9 days in Zambia (13.4 days total), which was reduced to 1.6 and 6 (7.6 days total), respectively, in 1974. As a result, each vehicle can manage four single trips per month. 95. A shortage of qualified drivers seems one of the company's major difficulties. In an attempt to overcome it, ZTRS has established a training school and a payment incentive system, which can add up to K 34 per single trip, by efficiency, express and/or no-breakdown bonuses. 96. ZTRS' immediate subcontractors receive 90% of the tariffs. In 1974, for the first time since its establishment, ZTRS increased its tariffs to K 49/ton of general cargo from Dar es Salaam to Zambia (K 45 to contractors, who in turn are paid within 60 days upon receipt of documentation). ZTRS average revenue (not including commission on contractors) and cost per trip and per km are shown in Table 10. Cooperatives 97. The mission was informed of the existence of only one transport cooperative and one agricultural cooperative with transport facilities. Other agricultural cooperatives rely mainly on NAMB for transport. The Eastern Province Transport Cooperative Association (EPTCA), which consists mostly of people with one or two 40-ton or smaller trucks, operates in the Eastern Province. The second, the Luapula Cooperative Union, assisted by FAO/SIDA, has about 1,300 members (small farmers with one or two ha each), grouped in 9 affiliated societies. The cooperative has its own workshop and one 7-ton lorry for traffic between its headquarters at Mansa and the nine societies, for which K 1/bag is charged. With 12 Land Rovers, about 40 tractors and 15 trailers, it also provides transportation between the nine societies and the farmers. Transport is satisfactory, according to management. Passenger Transportation 98. Any Zambian can apply for a license to provide passenger transport services. According to RRTA regulations, these services can be provided 1i/ They carrv about 30 tons of copper or-25 tons of general cargo. ANNEX 12 Page 33 only after a license has been granted. But in practice there are many con- traventions. The RTC establishes the fare applicable to each service, which is determined according to distance but without differentiation by type of road on which the service is provided (Table 2). Fares have remained unchanged since 1971. 99. In 1974, besides the parastatal UBZ which accounted for about 51% of total passenger transport capacity, there were many private operators: 52 bus operators for long- and 16 for short-distance runs, and 87 taxi opera- tors for long and 200 for short distances. The Rural Councils are entitled to establish and maintain passenger transport services, but no information on such activities was to be found. Some industrial companies provide trans- port for their employees. 100. Road passenger transportation has increased enormously. For in- stance, there were 20% more passengers and 38% more km travelled in 1973 than in 1974, an effect of favorable economic development, rapid population growth, and increasing urban concentration. However, services provided have also improved as a result of a considerable expansion of carrying capacity. Zambia Railways is also a competitor for passenger transport, but its traffic decreased by 20% from 1971 to 1973. United Bus Co. of Zambia (UBZ) 101. In 1970, UBZ started taking over from CARS the providing of services throughout Zambia. Since June 1974, the company has been divided into two divisions, the Northern Region and the Southern, with headquarters at Kitwe and Lusaka, respectively. Its staff numbers about 4,700 employees ancl the fleet about 600 large buses of various makes. Both are double the 1972 figures. In 1974, approximately 81 million passengers were carried and 46 million km travelled. For vehicle maintenance, UBZ has a main workshop in each headquarters and 12 minor ones. In important cities, branches have been established and managers propose routes to regional headquarters. At present, the company is operating on about 86 local service routes in 10 major cities and on 60 long-distance routes. 102. UBZ is currently operating at a deficit. On the average, ilts cost per km is 30.8, but its revenue is only 30.4. In 1973, taxi services, which also operate at a loss, were introduced. Up to now these deficits have been made up by Zambian commercial bank loans, but the Government may have to pro- vide subsidies for UBZ to repay the loans. 1/ 103. A complete development study of the company was done in 1974 by a MPTW specialist, 2/ which made recommendations for its improvement, such as review operations on unprofitable routes, improve staff (including drivers, maintenance specialists, and management), study the possibility of further expansion, and improve terminal facilities. 1/ Due to persistent losses the service was suspended in September 1975. 2/ M. Hromic, "UBZ Development Study," (Lusaka, 1974). ANNEX 12 Page 34 PART IV--INTERNATIONAL TRANSPORT ROUTES Lobito Route Port 104. Up to 1970 the port of Lobito, operated by the Angolan Government, handled about 1.8 million tons of cargo yearly. 1/ Of this total, Zambian traffic accounted for 17%, or 305,000 tons comprising 7% of Zambian imports and 22% of its exports. In 1973, a UN team estimated that Lobito's share could easily be increased, since the port did not have capacity constraints at this level. In fact, in 1974 the port surpassed UN estimates and handled for Zambia approximately 453,000 tons of imports and 517,000 tons of exports, corresponding to 44% and 55% of Zambia's total import and export traffic respectively. Although in July 1974, the port ship waiting time was ten days, and a congestion charge of 70% was added to the shipping rates, the delay seemed to originate in labor problems rather than in physical port- capacity constraints. 105. The distance by sea from Europe or America to Lobito is about 4,000 km shorter (or about 10 days less travel time) than to East African ports. Therefore, use of Lobito port represents a considerable overall time and cost saving, even though fares to it are not significantly different from those to other ports. Inland Transport 106. The only operating surface transport from Lobito to Zambia is the all-rail route with a 1.067 m gauge. Thus transshipments are not necessary and the route is therefore preferred for bulk commodities and other heavy items. It is composed of: The Chemins de Fer Benguela (CFB), with 1,350 km of track to the Zaire border at Dilolo; the Societe Nationale de Chemins de Fer Zairois (SNCZ) (previously the KDL network), which runs 757 km by electric power to Lubumbashi and 255 km by diesel power to Sakania; and the Zambia Railways which is used for internal distribution and collection. In all, there are 2,362 km of transport to the Zambian border. All three com- panies have working arrangements that allow free international movement. 107. Previously, there was a major bottleneck on this route, the Benguela escarpment section. Within about 386 km from Lobito, the line climbed to its highest point (1,854 m) in very steep gradients that were badly aligned. For instance, there was a 900 m sudden rise between Catumbela and Cubal, and the 60-lb. track could only handle a few cars at a time. However, the Cubal variant, a 128-km track-relocation designed to avoid the problem, was built with heavy duty 90-lb. rail on a gentle alignment. It was finished 1/ No later data are available. ANNEX 12 Page 35 in 1974 and will enable the CFB to handle considerably more traffic. In 1974, 12 additional diesels were ordered and this will help even more to facilitate transport. Furthermore, the rest of the track is to be gradually replaced and the whole line dieselized by 1985. Further to the east, the SNCZ apparently has no transport constraints. 108. Zambia has no influence on the tariff rates but enjoys progressive rate reductions with increased freight. Zairian and Zambia traffic account for more than half the cargo handled. The total capacity in one direction was estimated as 2 million tons a year. With the Cubal variant, its capacity is even larger than this. This route, like the others, carries more import than export volume, which results in empty outward trips. 109. Transport takes 10-14 days from Lobito to the Copperbelt or to Lusaka. Prior to the complete disruption of the route in mid '75, the CPO routed most bulk imports, including all wheat, and most copper exports this way, because it resulted in the lowest possible transport costs. When political stability is restored in Angola, given the advantage of the newly built Cubal variant and provided that the port labor problems are overcome (para. 104), more tonnage should be carried this way. Dar es Salaam Route Port 110. The port of Dar es Salaam, operated by the East African Harbours Corporation (EAHC), has been handling continuously-increasing tonnage. About 1 million tons were forwarded in 1965 and 2.8 million tons in 1970, of which approximately 400,000 tons or 14% was Zambian cargo. In 1974, about 300,000 tons of imports and 320,000 tons of exports were handled for Zambia through this port. This represented 29% and 34% of Zambia's total import and export traffic respectively, a remarkably-balanced flow causing low empty- running. (These figures can be compared to 37% and 28% respectively, which were predicted by earlier rerouting studies.) 111. An ongoing project of the EAHC investment plan for 1973-76 (whose foreign cost of about $52 million is financed by IBRD and CIDA) provides for construction of three deep-water berths, the modernization of existinlg facilities, and for new equipment. The purpose is to enable the port' to meet estimated requirements through 1980, as estimated in the IBRD apIpraisal. The projection includes a provision for exporting 440,000 tons of Zambian copper in 1975 and up to 640,000 tons in 1980. These amounts could easily be increased, since port import tonnage continues to be about double'that of exports: 1975 1980 '000 tons --- Exports 1,203 1,507 Imports 2,385 3,060 Total 3,588 4,567 ANNEX 12 Page 36 112. The port has been handling even more than it was designed to, so the Tanzanian Government has rerouted some of its own imports through Tanga to facilitate Zambian traffic. Even so, it was pointed out to the mission that there are several problems: that clearance from the port area is slow, that storage space is restricted, and that Zambia road transport capacity is insufficient. However, it is not clear which of these is the real con- straint. Whatever the major problem, in 1974, about 13 days ship waiting- time was typical at Dar es Salaam, and a congestion surcharge of 40% was levied. 113. EAHC increased its tariffs in May 1974, and even though Zambia enjoys preferential tariffs, they are higher than Lobito rates. The most important concession to Zambian cargo is the import storage rate at 1/ton/day, compared to the T.Sh. 8.50/ton/day generally charged other importers. Since Zambia's imports have piled up, this subsidy is damaging to EAHC. (The tariffs for import-export storage will be reviewed once TAZARA becomes ope- rational.) The EAHC clears cargo between the port area and the Ubungo trans- shipment depot across the city, allocated to Zambian traffic. EAHC also supplies mobile cranes for offloading. These services are free. It is cal- culated that the subsidies amounted to about T.Sh. 8.5 million in 1974. (It is rather astonishing that EAHC subsidizes a more wealthy country, by per capita-income standards.) 114. The EA Railways system runs through the port of Dar es Salaam with a 1 m gauge. This contributes to quay congestion, and if another track, with 1.067 m gauge, for TAZARA operations were added, congestion would be even worse. Therefore, the suitability of short-distance road transport to depots out of the port area should be studied. Inland Transport 115. A 2,090 km paved road joins Dar es Salaam and Lusaka. It is called the Great North Road in Zambia or, more generally, the Tan-Zam Road. The TAZARA Railway, under construction with completion expected at the end of 1975, runs 2,042 km from Dar es Salaam to Kapiri Mposhi, where it joins the Zambia Railways svstem. This will constitute another 1.067 m gauge all-rail sea con- nection. %TRS was created to carry international flow on this route and its functions expanded notably with the border closure. At that time, CH began assisting with haulage on this route (Part IIl--Road Transport). By July 1974, about 1,200 new vehicles were providing services on it, at a rather high cost due to the expensive empty trips to Dar es Salaam, which cost the government more than K 1 million in subsidies in 1973. Although in 1974 import tonnage was lower than export, imports still required more trucking capacity because of the higher weight-volume ratio for exports. Current tariffs for these trips, which take about 8 days, are K 54 a ton for copper exports and K 49 for general cargo. The three groups which own ZTRS have agreed that the company cease operations six months after the opening of the railway. ANNEX 12 Page 37 116. Since 1974, TAZARA has been sporadically carrying cargo from Dar es Salaam to Mwenzo, and is expected to carry all the long-distance Tan-Zam corridor traffic, at rates that will probably be in line with other ongoing railway systems favoring agricultural transport. If the real constraint is lack of transport, then overall costs, as well as port congestion should be reduced after TAZARA is fully operational. However, total transportation costs on this route may not be significantly less than present road costs, if--as seems likely--EAHC increases its rates and railway capacity is underutilized. Beira Route Port 117. This port handled more than 3 million tons a year, mostly for the inland Rhodesia, Zaire, and Zambia. It has been relatively efficient, with a maximum 2-day ship waiting time in 1974 (compared to 13 in Dar es Salaam). It seems that the port can handle as much Zambian cargo as may be sent, constrained only by Malawi railway capacity. Further, Rhodesian use of the Beira port may decrease with the new railway section through Beit- Bridge, which facilitates access to the South Africa Railways (RSA) and its ports and to Lourenco Marques. Zaire traffic may also be routed through Angola to avoid passing through Rhodesia. In 1974, Beira handled about 10% of Zambia's imports, or about 130,000 tons, which was a small share of the port's total tonnage. Inland Transport 118. There are several routes between Zambia and Beira. Although the ones through Rhodesia are not now used due to the border closure, they should be taken into account in longer planning horizons in anticipation of a change in the political situation. Routes Presentlv Used 119. The Mozambique Railway (CFM) from Beira to the Malawi border (331 km) presents no constraints. But the Malawi Railway (MR) has a ;l7 km section from Nkaya to Balaka on which not more than 11 tons per axle can be carried. This is, however, being upgraded. From the border at Sena,lit is 310 km to Balaka and an additional 157 km to Salima. From either of these points, transshipment to road transport is necessary. Salima has very good transshipment facilities, but only a one-lane 220 km paved road to Lilongwe. A railway line in this section is being constructed. Balaka, on the other hand, has limited facilities, but does have a high standard two-lane'paved road of 350 km to Lilongwe. From Lilongwe on there is a common route to the Zambian border at Mchinji, a 114 km all-weather gravel road, to be paved with USAID assistance, with vpd ranging from 75 to 150. Recently, the RSA has loaned the Malawi Government funds to build a railway line joining Lilongwe ANNEX 12 Page 38 to the Zambian border at Mchinji. This will leave only the Zambian section dependent on road transport, that is on the paved two-lane Great East Road, which is in good condition and carries slightly more than 200 vpd. 120. If, upon completion of the ongoing railway construction and general modernization, and especially upon completion of the proposed new section, Zambia decides to use the railway more intensively, Malawi will have to in- crease its rolling stock. This may be advantageous for her since the railways are operating efficiently and at a profit. 121. The route through Salima adds up to 1,655 km (798 km of rail). It may be less costly than Dar es Salaam and Lobito because port waiting time is less and congestion charges lower. After railway improvement, more traffic could be channeled this way. Routes Not Presently Used 122. The all-rail line from Lusaka to Beira, combining ZR, Rhodesia Rail- ways (RR) and CFM tracks totaling 2,046 km, was the route most used for inter- national trade before the border closure. Transport costs were about one-third less than present levels. In fact, the overall cost by this route may remain lower than that of routing through Dar es Salaam, even when the TAZARA is operational over a similar distance (2,042 km), because port services are better and cheaper in Beira. 123. The shortest route of all is the paved road from Lusaka to Sinoia in Rhodesia (about 350 km) and on RR to Beira (about 650 km), which totals only 1,000 km but has the disadvantage of a transshipment and steep road gradients. Nacala Route Port 124. At present, the port has three berths. It has been handling more than 500,000 tons a year with no delays, and could easily increase the amount of Zambian cargo handled and could even be easily developed further since it is a natural harbor. Inland Transport 125. The CFM joins Nacala to the Malawi system at Nayuci (about 656 km), from which point the MR takes over to Balaka or Salima and further, as pre- viously explained in para. 119. The total distance to Lusaka is about 1,749 km, or 100 km more than to Beira. ANNTEX 12 Page 39 Mombasa Route Port 126. This port, operated by the EAHC, has the capacity to handle more than 6 million tons a year. It is currently being modernized to permit the handling of 7.4 million tons (of which 4.4 million are imports) in 1975 and 8.9 million tons (5.6 in imports) in 1980, according to the EAHC invest- ment plan and loans obtained for implementation. In 1974, this port moved only about 10% of Zambia's foreign trade, about 92,000 tons each of imports and exports, a negligible amount of overall clearing capacity. Inland Transport 127. There is an all-road connection of about 2,350 km to Lusaka, 100 km of it is in Kenya, 270 km in Tanzania, from Kenya to the Tan-Zam Road, and 1,980 km from there on the Tan-Zam Road. Other Routes Not Presently Used Lourenco Marques Route 128. Unfortunately, the mission was not able to obtain any information about Lourenco Marques port, except that it used to share with Beira more than 50% of Zambia's external trade. It handles about 10 million tons a year, and overall 90% of its traffic is for the neighboring countries. In 1975, it was beset with delays exacerbated by strikes. If the Rhodesian border is reopened, the utilization of this port should again be considered. At present, the distance from Lourenco Marques to Lusaka by rail is about 2,040 km, a distance which will decrease after completion of the Beit-Bridge link. Matadi Route 129. This route, by "La Voie Nationale" in Zaire, has been unsatisfactory to Zambia for two reasons. First, the Matadi port has been congested, which resulted in related surcharges. Second, inland transportation requires two transshipment between rail and river transport both in Kinshasa and in Ilebo. When ongoing transport projects in Zaire are finished, this route can be reconsidered. Mtwara Route 130. This Tanzanian port is underutilized, but there are no good inland connections to Zambia. However, the Tanzanian Government, with help from IBRD and ADB is paving the road from Mtwara to Masasi (200 km) and is considering improving the link with the Tan-Zam Road. APIMEX 12 Appendix I Page 1 Table 1.1: ROAD INVENTORY, 1974 -(m) Maintained By Maintained by FDads Department Rural Councils Class I Class II Class III Unclassified Total (Unclassified) 2/ By Province: Copperbelt 680.1 515.5 1.45.8 32.7 1,374.1 459.1 Central 1,204.9 172.1 1,357.4 1,163.1 3,897.5 2,139.6 Northern 568.4 592.3 493.5 1,303.2 2,957.4 3,423.4 Eastern 397,8 48.0 843.9 723.5 2,013.2 3,021.3 Southern 631.1 393.7 224.6 1,648.0 2,897.4 1,587.0 Western 348,2 3.0 704.7 711.2 1,767.1 2,890.3 N1orthwestern 89.8 852.6 108.4 1,156.7 2,207.5 1,598.3 Luapula 98.9 116.5 818,9 468.2 1,502.5 781.1 Total 4s019.2 2,693.7 4,697.2 7,206.6 18,616.7 15,900.1 By Classification: Inter-terri- torial, main 2,705.7 150.2 - 241.9 3,097.8 Territorial, main 1,043.4 1,709.1 826.8 65.2 3,644.5 District roads 350,0 834.4 3,870.4 6,765.8 12,020.7 10,185.8 Rural roads - - - - 5,714.3 / Estimated lengths. Source: Roads Department, 1974. March 1975 Table 1.2: MPTW ROAD CLASSIFICATION1 MSD STANiDARD'; Class I Characteristics _ _ C . Class II Class III Unclassified C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s ~A B _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Surface Bitumen Bitumen Bituen Gravel Earth and (engineered) gravel where necessary for Earth, with all weather 3.50 m gravel service where essential Width: (m) Carriageway 7.30 6.70 6.10 min.6.10 min.5.50 Shoulder 3.00 2-3 2/ 2.00 2.00 1.00 Total 13.30 10.70-12.70 10.10 10.10 7.50 5.50 vpd expected for nth year 1500-5000 500-1500 150-500 50-150 20-50 after construction Design Speed (km/h) Flat 100 100 100 80-100 60-80 Rolling 100 80-1Vi 80 60- 80 50-60 Mountainous 80 60- 80 60 50, 60 30-50 Limiting Grade (%) Flat 4 5 6 6 8 Rolling 6 6 7 8 10 Mountainous 7 8 8 10 12 6ximum Length of Limiting Grade (m} Rolling 220 220 180 150 - Mountainous 180 150 150 150 _ When exceptionally a road with geometric and/or structural standard lower than Class IC requires bituiinisation, it shall be oalled Class ID. / According to traffic levels. Source: Roads Department, 1974 h cx N1. C- ANINEX 12 Appendix I Page 3 Table 1.3: iINC`TIOTiAL HIGHWAY CLASSIFITCTIC'I The highway system of Zambia comprises Interterritorial Main (T), Main, District (D) (RD), Branch (B), Rural (R) and Estate (E) roads. Although no specific definitions are given for these various categories of road, it is generally understood that they serve the following purposes: -1. T roads are the international main roads which, together with the M roads form the primary road network, connecting the Zambian highway system with that of neighbouring countries, linking Provincial seats of Government and the main centres of population. 2. D and RD roads form the secondary road network linking local centres of population, districts and special development areas with the primary network. At present, some are of local and others of national importance. 3. B roads are entirely of local importance and are usually so designated to preserve a public right of way. The Minister has the power to appoint a highway authority for such roads, which are not generally constructed or maintained at public expense. 4. R roads are generally low standard tracks of local importance connecting local areas with the secondary road network. The local Rural Council is the highway authority for such roads, the construction and maintenance of which is grant-aided by Central Government. 5. E roads serve the purpose of internal access in areas being developed by Government or otherwise for residential or industrial plots or farms. To date no such roads have been designated. Source: Roads Department, 1974. March 197' AN,NEX 12 ApppndLc I Page 4 Table 2: ROAD DENSITTIPS, 1974 RD roads EC roads Total Province m/km' m/inhabitant m/e m/inhabitant m m/inhabitant Copperbelt 44 1 15 1 59 2 Central 34 18 2 52 6 Northern 20 5 23 6 43 11 Eastern 29 4 44 5 73 9 Southern 34 5 19 3 53 8 Western 14 4 23 6 37 10 Northwestern 18 9 13 6 31 15 Luapula 30 4 15 2 45 6 ZAMBIA 25 4 21 3 46 7 Source: Roads Department, Central Statistical Office, own elaboration, 197h. March 1975 Table 3.1: VEHICLE FLEET, 1960-1973 Cars, Con- Station Vans, struction Sub- Motor- Year Wagons - Vanettes Trucks Buses Vehicles Tractors Trailers Total cycles Total Private 1960 32,724 6,544 3,969 262 211 1,049 1,444 46,203 1,879 48,082 1961 34,300 6,474 3,687 279 1-44 1,097 2,130 418,116 1,942 50,058 1962 36,930 6,9h3 3,766 292 135 1,115 2,267 51,448 2,06) 53,512 1963 39,491 6,807 3,566 306 33 862 2,531 53,596 2,145 55,741 1964 41,467 7,147 3,744 321 28 905 2,657 56,269 2,252 58,521 1965 2/ 43,729 7,454 3,941 337 30 950 2,789 59,220 2,364 61,584 1966- 42,146 9,558 4,993 320 243 1,778 3,625 62,663 3,027 65,690 1967 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a 1968 48,325 14,385 8,308 593 171 2,490 4,246 78,518 5,550 84,068 1969 53,849 15,467 10,179 658 190 2,564 4,246 87,153 5,960 93,113 1970 58,508 16,253 10,740 668 220 2,759 4,330 93,478 6,331 99,809 1971 61,579 18,118 11,666 690 258 3,393 4,969 100,673 6,939 107,612 1972 65,794 20,705 12,725 769 382 3,910 5,310 109,595 8,233 117,828 1973 72,140 23,502 13,375 780 472 4,469 5,519 120,257 8,446 128,703 Government-Owned 3/ 1968 n/a 367 1,130 n/a n/a n/a n/a 1969 6,046 396 1,217 375 8,034 430 8,464 1970 7,031 425 1,294 477 9,227 505 9,732 1971 8,178 455 1,411 529 10,573 650 11,223 1972 8,932 637 1,471 556 11,596 656 12,252 1973 9,012 657 1,517 556 11,742 668 12,410 -______________________________________________________________________________-__ , 1/ Including CD registrations At June 30, 1966 CD 3/ Excluding defense forces equipment Source: Central Statistical Office, 1974 H March 1975 Table 3.2: NEWi RZGIS3TI'U -TIOi F ZMOTOR VEHICLES, 1955-19572 N E W Commercial Vehicles M'otor- Trucks & Cycles Passenger Vans Pt. Mech. Tractors & L/ and Total Grand Year Cars Buses Vpne-ttes Horses Const. Veh. Total Scooters Total Used Total 1955 4,011 2,187 268 6,456 1,710 8,166 1956 5,235 2,602 334 8,171 2,260 10,431 1957 3,867 1,934 332 6,133 2,600 8,733 1958 3,187 1,177 253 4,617 1,885 6,502 1999 3,979 1,628 253 5,860 2,750 8,610 1960 4,277 2,068 341 6,686 2,981 9,667 1961 4,421 1,804 360 6,585 2,408 8,993 19`2 4,475 1,851 367 6,693 2,368 9,061 1963 5,114 1,785 590 7,489 2,391 9,880 1964 5,640 15 1,487 445 362 2,309 524 8,473 2,752 11,225 1965 6,366 28 2,686 1,09? 479 4,285 728 11,379 2,401 13,780 1966 4,507 37 2,374 1,773 660 4,844i 1,123 10,47h 1,818 12,292 1967 6,558 71 3,430 1,874 6419 6,024 1,762 14,344 1,483 15827 1968 7,240 36 3,364 1,707 394 5,501 2,197 14,938 1,543 16,4L81 1969 6,2116 86 3,441 1,356 541 5,424 1,682 13,352- 1,908 15,260 1970 5,984 54 3,743 1,470 622 5,889 1,657 13,530 1,891 15,381 1971 b,165 152 5,042 2,349 859 8,397 1,616 16,180 1,389 17,569 1972 9,939 27L 4,321 1,747 836 7,178 1,824 14,541 1,359 19,899 1 Excluding trailers and caravans. Source: Central Statistial0Office, 1974 March 1975 1 Table 3.3: REGISTRATION OF VEHICIES BY MAIN AREAS, 1972 1972 (Januarv -December) Station- Vans & Othe Comm. Trailers/ Cars Wazons Buses Vanettes Trucks Tractors (construction) Motorcycles Caravans Total Area New Used I ed AU Used New Used New Used New Used New 'Lew - New New U[jd New Used Chingola 209 21 36 5 6 - 230 9 111 - 6 1 1 - 35 - 29 1 677 37 Kabwe, Mkushi 193 17 19 10 5 - 163 29 27 7 61 4 5 - 163 2 18 - 654 69 Serenj e Kitwe 776 59 135 20 20 1 643 42 224 13 37 - 69 - 251 2 102 1 2,257 138 Livirgstone 184 7 31 4 3 - 200 9 31 - 11 - 1 _ 83 3 13 - 557 23 Luanshya 136 14 38 6 6 - 159 8 42 3 - - 2 _ 12 - 15 2 410 33 Lusaka 2,424 2g9 314 54 173 2 1,418 205 832 189 416 5 28 1 905 20 272 66 6,782 761 Mufulira 91 40. 10 7 17 - 101 12 39 4 8 - 19 - 41 1 16 2 342 66 Ndola 586 53 97 10 24 - 557 56 214 18 6 2 6 - 152 4 63 4 1,705 147 Government 76 - 17 - 12 - 645 - 172 - 40 - 22 - 27 - 6 - 1,017 Other Areas 154 18 13 6 8 1 205 96 _ 31 81 1 3 - 155 23 76 - 750 156 Total 4,829 448 710 122 274 4 4,321 466 1,747 265 666 13 170 1 1,824 35 610 76 15,151 1,430 Source: Central Statistical Office, 1974 March 1975 .D m i ANNEX 12 Appendix I Table 4s ROADS PROGRAM (1972-76) Page 8 Estimated 1974 Cost Status la, in SNDP Estimates / End 1974 I. SNDP ('000 K) Car-over from FNDP Paving Chingola-Solwezi 179 3,542 3,500 completed Chembe-Mansa 98 3,000 3,000 Livingstone-Shesheke 180 3,789 3,720 Great East Road 590 2,o64 2,636 n Great North Road 810 28 32 " Feira Road 776 678 near completion Kariba North Access 823 920 i Isoka-Liundazi 700 570 " New Pro ects Paving Lusaka-Mongu 585 17,000 15,000 near completion Magoye-Munali 51 (widen) 1,000 1,000 half completed Luangwa Project 3,833 4,500 completed Samfya-Serenje 264 - 16,760 to be started Kapiri-Mposhi-Ndola 150 2,800 ? Ndola-Kitwe 56 (d-ualling) 3,750 8,900 to start Solwezi-Ikelenge 349 5,500 19,900 t Mpika-Kasama 214 6,40o 10,770 Kalongola-Kalabo 181 (to III) 3,200 3,620 " Nampundwe Mine Road 23 600 760 Bridges- Samfya-Serenje 18 18 completed Lalafuta 180 150 Chembe 1,122 2,000 to start Sioma 1,500 2,500 Other Strengthening 5,250 9,000 ongoing Weigh bridges 200 360 installed Surveys and investigations 2,500 4.700 ongoing Subtotal 6925 117,694 II. Subsequent additions by MPF Kalulushi-Kalengwa 206 completed Norfolk Lodge Access 11 350 " Mongu-Senanga 110 7,000 to start Chipata-Lundazi 174 8,ooo Lundazi-Chama 145 10,200 Kasama-Mbala 164 80o00 Subtotal gm5 planned: 20% - 30,290 1975 Total 66,925 151,450 30% - 45,435 1976 30% - 45,435 carryover III. Additional paving proposals by MPTW vpd Mll -Namwala-Choma 169 9,300 120 M3-Kawambwa-Mansa Airport 160 9,600 105 D104/D79, Chipata-Luangwa South Airport 92 5,060 182 M18-Kalulushi-Jct. M8 256 12,825 175 D773-M8 - Kalengwa Mine 41 2,44o 150 D94-Mansa-Samfya 79 3,735 150 D776-Choma-Batoka road link 35 1,915 110 D391-Mazabuka 47 2,330 240 D468-T3-Mpongwe 52 2,575 200 Access roads 323 1/ Some differences appear between SNDP and later MPTW figures; these latter were used 2/ When Planning and Roads Dep. differ, used the latter. 3/ Including K200,000 for Kazungula pontoon. 4I/ The Chinese loans will be financing: K9M for the Lusaka-Mongu road, 100% of the Samfya-Serenje road, and 60% of the Solwezi-Ikelenge, Mpika-Kasama and Kalongola-Kalabo roads. J Extracted only those with vpd> 100. Source: SNDP; MPF, "Mid-Term Review;' Roads Department, various documents; own elab- oration, 1974. March 1975 ANYEX 12 Anpendix I Page 9 SNDP Transport Related Table 5: PROVINCIAL DIVESTMENT PROGRAMI/ ('COO K) Transport Province/ Prov. and Iical Build.Wbrkshops Sector Governments 2/ Roads & Maint.Cainps Other Total Total (197470 - -7(1974) Luapula 600 (52) 1,815 260 20 2,095 (285) 2,695 Northern 232 (87) t,666 223 191 2,080 (365) 2,312 Eastern 750 (54) 1,625 255 20 1,900 (355) 2,650 Southern 630 (60) 2,444 506 20 2,970 (331) 3,600 Center 860 (80) 737 201 12 950 (301) 1,810 Oopperbelt 200 (20) 781 588 21 1,390 (225) 1,590 Northwestern 593 (75) 2,109 513 25 2,6h7 ( 83) 3,2h0 Northern 670 (77) 3,115 860 25 4,0C0 (579) 4,670 Total 4,535 (505) 14,292 3,406 334 18,032(3,02h) 22,567 1/ The funds are given to the provinces through the Office of the Cabinet Minister. anall amounts are also allocated for transport and included unde!r other headings, but no details are available. 2/ Capital grants to Rural Local Authorities, for road upgrading. Source: SNDP, Estimates of Revenue and Expenditure, 1974. March 1975 ANNEX 12 Appendix I Page 1U Table 6: ROAD TRANSPORT FEES AND FINES 1. Motor vehicles and trailers annual licence fees K - Motorcycles 6 Vehicle Trailer - Public service vehicles and trailers (except hire cars and taxicabs) a) net weight < 5,000 lb 30 20 b) net weight exceeding 5,000 lb but not exceeding 7,000 lb 60 30 c) net weight exceeding 7,000 lb but not exceeding 8,000 lb 100 50 d) net weight exceeding 6,000 lb but not exceeding 10,000 lb 130 70 e net weight exceeding 10,000 lb but not exceeding 12,000 lb 160 90 f) net weight exceeding 12,000 lb but not exceeding 14,000 lb 200 110 g) net weight exceeding 14,000 lb but not exceeding 16,000 lb 240 130 h) net weight more than 16,000 lb 280 150 - Light trailers and caravans 4 Contract or hire cars and taxicabs a) net weight < 1,800 lb 20 b) net weight exceeding 1,800 lb but not exceeding 3,400 lb 25 c) net weight more than 3,400 lb 30 - Private motor cars a) net weight < 1,500 lb 15 b) net weight exceeding 1,500 lb but not exceeding 1,800 lb 20 c) net weight exceeding 1,800 lb but not exceeding 3,400 lb 25 d) net weight more than 3,400 lb 30 - Other motor vehicles except farm tractors, and other trailers a) net weight < 1,500 lb 15 10 b) net weight exceeding 1,500 lb but not exceeding 1,800 lb 20 13.33 c) net weight exceeding 1,800 lb but not exceeding 3,400 lb 25 16.67 d) net weight exceeding 3,400 lb but not exceeding 7,000 lb 30 20 e) net weight exceeding 7,000 lb but not exceeding 8,000 lb 60 40 f) net weight exceeding 8,000 lb but not exceeding 10,000 lb 90 60 g) net weight exceeding 10,000 lb but not exceeding 12,000 lb 120 80 h) net weight exceeding 12,000 lb but not exceeding 14,000 lb 160 100 i) net weight exceeding 14,000 lb but not exceeding 16,000 lb 200 120 J) net weight more than 16,000 lb 240 140 2. Public service vehicles licence fees Road service licence 4.00/year Duplicate .25 Ehdorsement 2.00 Short-term road service licence 2.00/week Identity certificate 4.00 Duplicate .25 Endorsement .50 Appeal to Road Service Tribunal 20.00 Forms of monthly returns (24 forms) .10 ANINEX 12 Appendix I Page ll 3. Oertificate of Fitness fees K Examination of motor vehicle 4.00 EKamination of trailer 2.00 Reexamination of motor vehicle 2.00 Reexamination of trailer 1.00 Duplicate of documents .25 Appeal to Commissioner 6.oo 4. Test Certificate fees Vehicle examination 1.00 Duplicate certificate .25 Appeal to Commissioner 6.oo 5. Registration fees Duplication registration book .50 Duplicate licence or token .25 Temporary registration cards .50 Registration of new owner .50 Assignment of registration card not currently in use 10.00 Assignment of registration card currently in use 20.00 6. Driving licences fees Driving licence 4.00 Duplicate 1.00 Provisional 1.00 Extension ,25 Driving test 2.00 Renewal of public service vehicle driving licence .25 Appeal to Commissioner 6.oo 7. Fines 1st time up to subsequent Lack of test certificate when required 50 100 Lack or contravention of road service licence 200 up to 500 Lack of required accounting by public carriers 50, plus 10 for each day the offence continues Exceeding authorized axle load 500 Carrying more passengers than authorized 50 100 Others, generally 20 100 Source: Roads and Road Traffic Act, Chapt. 766, Laws of Zambia,l974: 1. First Schedule 2. Second Schedule of Subsidiary Legislation, Public Service Vehicles Licencing and Use Regulations 3. Second Schedule of Subsidiary Legislation, Oertificate of Fitness Regulations 4. Second Schedule of Subsidiary Legislation, Test Certificate Regulations 5. Second Schedule of Subsidiary Legislation, Registration and Licencing Regulations (The fee for initial registration is not stated) 6. Third Schedule of Subsidiary Legislation, Driving Licence Regulations March 1975 Table 7: IMPORTS MID EXPORTS BY ROUTE (EXCLUDING PETROLUM PIPELINE), 1970-197L (thousand tons, 5) Lobito Dar es Salaam Mombasa Malawi Rhodesia Air Botswana Total Year TT TT % TT % TT TT TT TT % TT % Imports 1970 118 7 248 15 18 1 1293 77 4 - - - 1681 100 1971 269 16 295 18 29 2 1048 64 7 - - - 1648 100 1972 144 11 126 10 84 7 39 3 857 68 8 1 - - 1258 100 1973 418 49 200 23 68 8 109 13 35 4 25 3 4 - 859 100 1974* 453 45 295 29 92 9 136 13 - - 27 3 13 1 1016 100 UN 1/ 276 20 516 37 264 19 204 14 - - 144 10 - - 1404 100 Exports 1970 187 22 253 30 6 1 399 47 4 - - - 849 100 1971 176 22 222 28 9 1 390 49 2- - - 799 100 1972 170 20 210 25 7 1 467 54 2* - _ - 856 100 1973 438 54 284 35 45 6 41 5 5 - 3*- - - 816 100 1974* 517 55 322 34 91 10 7 1 - - n/a - - 937 100 UN-11 420 48 240 28 120 14 84 10 - - - - - - 864 100 * Estimate e d 1/ As estimated in 1973 (D cD~ Source: UN, CPO, 1974 Maroh 1975 ANNEX 12 Appendix I Page 13 Table 8: NAMB'S TRANSPORT CAPACITY, JUNE 1974 Vehicles District/ Contractors Total Ton Province Main Office at No. No. Capacity Mumbwa Lusaka 13 40 874 Mumbwa 3 13 197 Kabwe 1 1 10 17- 3% -1071T Lusaka Rural Lusaka 29 81 1465 Kabwe 2 14 242 31 -97 1707 Kabwe Lusaka 6 14 136 Kitwe 1 1 12 Kapiri-Mposhi 1 7 40 -7 ~ 22 i- Mkushi-SerenJe Mkushi 1 4 100 Kitwe 1 4 51 Lusaka 2 5 57 Mufulira 1 17 530 5 ~ 30 73 Luapula Prov. Lusaka 1 3 56 Mansa 3 5 65 LAanshya 1 43 7 12 1* Copperbelt Prov. Luanshya 2 9 66 Kitwe 2 7 122 Chingola 1 1 9 Ndola 1 2 3 ~~ 1~~~9 227 Mongu Limulunga 1 2 19 Lusaka 1 3 73 2 7 92 Senanga Lusaka 1 1 10 Senanga 1 1 8 2 2 -17 Kaoma Lusaka 3 5 93 Kafue 1 2 50 0 -7 i6T Southern Prov. Pemba 2 6 96 Chisekesi 1 8 304 Choma 1 5 18 -z 19 8 Mazabuka Livingstone 1 3 125 Kafue 1 3 32 Lusaka 1 1 11 Mazabuka 1 2 50 7 9 21T N.W. Prov. Ndola 1 4 40 Solwezi 2 2 12 Lusaka 1 1 10 -1 7 62 Eastern Prov. Chipata 2 26 396 Lusaka 35 220 6092 Ndola 4 11 321 Kabwe 1 4 105 Kitwe 1 21 43 26 6935 Total, 12150 of which in Lusaka - 93 (69%) 44T (69%) 8o77 (73%) Source: NAMB, and own elaboration, 1974. March 1975 ANNEX 12 Appendix I Page 14 Table 9: CONTRACT HAULAGEs OPERATING COSTS AND TARIFFS, 1974 Nalawi Route Refriger. Maize Blantyre Lusaka- Meat Movement -Kabwe Balaka to Mombasa 1. Operations, average per truck: 0/ Driver's wage, K/month- 260 180 138 172 Single trip: approx. length, km 64 1228 966 2253 load, tons 25 28 25 25 empty 1 way both ways both ways empty 1 way Round trip, frequency 2/day 3/month 3/month 2/month Annual kilometers 61,400 88,400 69,550 108,144 Truck, capital cost, K 12,0751/ 26,000 2. Fixed costs/truck/year K License 300 240 2/ 324 Insurance 187 480 2/ 216 Overhead and accident provision 3,600 2,400 7,360 _ Depreciation 2,415 4,320 15,7082/ 13,800 Allowances 2 110 - - - -to -7-658 23,568 14,340 3. Costs per km: ngwee/km Fixed 1-4.0 292 33.9 13.3 Running cost: Fuel & Oil 4.8 4.4 7.6 3.6 Maintenance 12.5 7.5 1.7 - Tires 3-5 31 6 2.6 Dri'ver's wage -LIVY 2.4 2.4 1.9 27,2 17. ____ Total 41.2 27,3 X2.5 21.4 nre e/ton -km Total cost per ton-km, if fully loaded 1.65!! 1.0 2.1 .85 , if 50% loaded (or empty trip) 3.30 2.0 4.2 1.7 Actual rates per ton-km 6.00 imp. 4.0 imp. 4.6 2.7 ex. 1.2 or 37/ 2 K (Rates per ton-trip) (imp. 49) (4,4 (120) (exp. 45) (or 36 i) 0/ The range is surprising. 1/ Seems rather low for a 25 ton truck. 2/ License and insurance are included under depreciation. In this case, operation is done with CPO trucks, and CH is supposed to pay back as depreciation 3.5% of the revenues; however, the amount shown seems rather high. 3/ CH indicates "all charges based on 1.25 unit per unit." 1/ CH indicates 18 ngwee/ton-km, with the same basic data and an error in calculation, / Fertilizer. Source: Contract Haulage, own elaboration, 1974. March 1975 ANNEX 12 Appendix I Page 15 Table 10: ZTRS OPERATING COSTS AND TARIFFS, 1973 (IK) Total/trip Average cost / DIRECT COSTS 871.3 .417 Traffic expenses 369.2 .177 Fuel & oil 122.6 .059 Tires 79.2 .038 Other 56.1 .027 Drivers wages 111.3 .053 Administrative expenses 138.3 .o66 Freight expenses 42.8 .020 Maintenance (workshops) 321.0 .154 Wages 117.9 .056 Spare parts 169.2 .081 Materials 13.7 .007 Subcontractors works 13.6 .007 Other 6.6 .003 INDIRECT COSTS 256.2 .122 Vehicle depreciation 161.7 .077 Financial 75.1 .036 Other depreciations 19.4 .009 TOTAL COST 1127.5 0.5389 Average revenue 1145 0.547 Average ngwee/ton-km2A cost 2.22 revenue 2.25 ~/ Average length/trip: 2,092 kms Average trips/unit/year: 22.3 j Average load: 20 tons (general cargo) or 29 tons (copper) Source: ZTRS, own elaboration, 1974 Table 11: ROADS DEPARTlMENT: EXPENDITURE BY PROVTNCES - 1973 North Recurrent Copperbelt Central Southern Northern Western Eastern Western LuapULa General Total K K K K K K K K K K Maintenance of Roads and Airfields 108,871 771,317 565,806 376,971 285,339 2414,968 197,823 352,127 162,630 3,065,852 Cycle Maintenance and Roads Betterment 360,000 366,500 218,000 155,000 170,000 110,000 130,000 125,000 _ 1,634,500 Lusaka International Airport - 113,000 - - - - - - 113,000 TOTAL 468,871 1,250,817 783,806 531,971 455,339 354,968 327,823 477,127 162,630 4,813,352 CAPIrAL FUND Road Construction 182,493 328,699 1,009,785 59,585 805,813 404,171 95,710 1,344,123 11,724 4,242,103 Bridge Construction - 21,133 - - - 28,718 35,602 - - 85,453 Harbours and Slipways - - - - - - - TOTAL 182,493 349,832 1,009,705 59,585 805,813 432,889 131,312 1,344,123 11,724 4,327,556 MISCELLANEOUS WORKS AND SERVICES FOR OTHER BODIES (a) Department of Civil Aviation 270,410 42,390 - _ 12,311 876,721 51,335 - 1,253,167 GRAND TOTAL 921,774 1,643,039 1,793,591 561,556 1,273,463 1,664,578 510,470 1,821,250 174,354 10,394,075 ;~~~~- _ Source: Roads Department, 1973 Annual Report, 1971,. CD March 1975 ANETEX 12 Appendix T Page 17 Table 12: ZAMBIA: MOTOR OMTBUS FARES Fil T SCi{EDULE (Pairagraph 4) LONG DISTANCE SERVICES Column I Column 2 Column I Column 2 (Uolumn, I Col-lon, 2 Colunmn I colum,i 2 Diatarw . Fare Di8tance Farc j)itatn, e Far" Di/dtii*re F ors kin K kmn K kin 1K km K 8 0.10 280 3.00 570 5.0 8a() 7.300 15 0.21 290 3.10 680 5.50' 870 7.40 25 0.3(ff 300 S.20 590 5.60 0 7.4( 30 0,40 310 3.30 n00 5.70 90 MM 40 0.50' 320 3.40 610 5.F0 Po00 7.5D 50 0.60 330 3.50 620 5.90 10 7.60 t0 0.70 340 3.50 630 5.900 20 7.60 70 0.80 350 3.60 640 6.00 k130 7.70 SO 0.90 360 3.70 650 6.10 .140 7.70 90 1.00 370 3.80 660 0.10 950 7.80 100 1.10 . 380 3.90 670 6.20 960 7.80 105 1.20' 390 4.00 680 0.20 970 7.90 115 1.30 400 4.10 6n0 6.30 980 7.90 120 1.40 410 4.20 700 0.40 990 8.00 130 1.50 420 4.30 710 6.4(i 1,000 8.06 140 1.60 430 4.40 720 6.500 1,010 8.00 150 1.70 440 4.50 730 68.0( 1,020) 8.10 160 1.80 450 4.50 740 8.60 1,030 S.o10 170 1.90 460 4.60 750 6.70 1,040 8.10' 180 2.00 470 4.70 7/i 6 70 1,050 8.20 ;v ^.:n Co.fie .e ,6 1 (l U 200 - 2.20 490 4.90 780 i3.h1O 1,070 8.30 " ^ j A U _ n A . ' { "I I i f0Qfl Q N 220 2.40 51, 5.00 800 7.010 1,099 8,30, 230 2.50 520 5.10 810 7.10. 1,100 8.40 240 2.6n 580 5.20 820 7.10 1.110 h.4U 250 2.70 540 5.30 810 7.20 1,12u 6.40 260 2.80 550 5.so 840t 7.201 1,130 8.40 270 2.90 580 5.40 850 7.30 - - LOCAL BERVICES Column I Column 2 Colutnn I Columnt 2 Ditarnc Fare Diotance Parc kin K km K 2.5 0.03 8.5 0.08 3.5 0.04 0.5 0.09 4.5 0.05 10.5 0.10 5.5 0.06 12.5 0.12 7.0 0.07 10.0 0.1b N'OTE-Ifl any osee where the dirstn.ne to be travolled falIs botwven two consecutive distances shown in the Schedule. the fare to be charged shall be the ono for the greater distance. SECOND SCHEDULE (Paragraph 0) LUXURY COACH SERVBCE: Oolumn I Colttmn 2 Lugmkz-Kabwe 2.50' -Ndola 5.00 -Kitwe 6.00 Jiabwe-Ndola 3.OU -Kitwe 4.00 Ndola Kitwe 1.00 kourcez Statutory Instruments, "The Passenger Fares and Excess Luggage Charges Order, 1971" March 1975 ZAMBIA AGRICULTURE AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY Roads Department (rganization Director o. Roads Assistant Director of Roads Planning & Design | Sho r s I 1/1 312 Traffic Statist Planning Unit Survey & & Road Ordinance 2/1 Drawing Office Design Office Cotat Laboratory Maintenance 3/2 312/1166212 P R O V I NC E S r~ ~~~T . I 1. l I l Coppe rbelt Luapula Eastern Western N.Western Central Southern Northern 15/10 1 2/b 10/5 10/4 7/4 3/2 26/17 26/17 Lusaka Airport 2/2 In each province: F Provincial Road Engineer H Assistant Road Inspector Road Superintendent (Works) Road Superintendent kmaintenance) Road Foremen (14) Note: Establishment/Filled positions. Source: Roads Department, November 19714. ANMEX 13 ZAMBIA Page i AGRICIJLTURAL, AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS IN CROP AGRICULTURE Paragrap(s) Maize 1 - 6 Rice 7 - 10 Wheat and Barley 11 - 15 Cotton 16 - 19 Virginia Tobacco 20 - 22 Burley Tobacco 23 - 25 Other Tobaccos 26 32 Sunflower and Soya Beans 34 - 38 Coffee 39 -42 Tea 43 -44 Sugar 45 -46 Sorghum, Millet, Cassava and Beans 47 - 51 Fruits and Vegetables 52 - 57 Other Crops 58 - 61 Tables: 13.1: Marketed Maize Production 13.2: Marketed Paddy Rice Production by Province 13.3: Seed Cotton Production by Province, 1967-74 13.4: Virginia Flue-Cured Tobacco Production, 1967-74 13.5: Burley Tobacco Production, 1967-75 13.6: Groundnut Production and Marketing 13.7: Marketed Groundnut Production, 1964-74 13.8: Planting and Production of Sunflower and Soya Beans, 1973-75 13.9: Clean Coffee Production and Yields, 1971-74 13.10: Tea Planting at Kawambwa Project 13.11: Sugar "'roduction, 1969-75 13.12: Millet and Sorghum Production by Province, 1969-70 13.13: Cassava and Legume Production by PrOvince, 1969-70 13.1)4: National Marketed Production of Fruit and Vegetables, 1968-74 ANNEX 13 Page 1 ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY PERFORMANCE AND PROSPECTS IN CROP AGRICULTURE Maize Background 1. Maize is the staple food of Zambia's urban population and also for about 70% of the rural population. Local open pollinated varieties are grown for subsistence, and an improved Composite A variety has been produced by the Research Branch. The main hybrid variety, SR52 was evolved in Rhodesia, but sufficient seed is now produced locally to satisfy Zambia's needs and leave some for export. A Zambian hybrid variety, ZH1, is also being produced for sale to farmers, but most farmers who market maize grow the proven SR52 variety. In a normal year, with an application of 350 kgs 'X' mixture (20N- 1OP-5K-10S) basal dressing and 200 kgs urea top dressing and recommended cultural practices, SR52 will yield about 5-1/2 m tons/ha. Performance 2. The vagaries of the weather and producer price changes have led to wide fluctuations in maize marketed through official channels, as can be seen in Table 13.1. Supply is from both the large-scale commercial sector, includ- ing special production schemes, which up to 1972 accounted for 60%-70% of the crop marketed through official channels, and from the traditional sector. Fluctuations in marketed production from traditional farmers are large, because subsistence needs are satisfied first. In addition to weather and price uncertainties, the availability of inputs at the correct time and in the quantities required, and the rate at which Zambian farmers move into commer- cial production make the future supply position problematic. 3. Present Government policy is to have 50% annual demand as a reserve stock prior to the start of a new buying season; some reserve has been built up since large imports in 1970-71 stimulated the policy, but the needs of neighbors (Zaire and Tanzania) have led to subsequent export of part of this reserve. Government has correctly proposed stimulating production in all deficit provinces (Northern, Luapula, Copperbelt, North Wiestern and Western) and encouraging more production by small-scale farmers near the main markets. Table 13.1: MARKETED MAIZE PRODUCTION (in 1000 90-Kg Bags) Harvest Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Northern North Southern Western Total Year Wv]es tern 1964 1,323.9 3.0 95.0 .0 15.7 - 811.1 1.0 2,251.7 1965 i,889.2 3.9 60.3 4.1 19.6 1.2 999.8 1.0 2,899.1 i966 2,330.3 10.6 150.8 11.6 28.3 1.5 1,705.6 2.1 4,240.E 1967 2,326.3 20.1 89.5 14.9 69.0 17.3 1,680.5 5.4t 4,222.i 1968 1,590.0 15.7 117.3 23.3 93.2 13.2 1,031.7 23.0 2,08.2 1969 1,322.2 27.6 26.1 36.7 113.8 28.3 1,443.6 21.9 3.02G.2 1970C 903.2 6.7 15.6 19.6 56.8 15.2 1161.4 11.8 1,490.- 1971 2,604.4 33.1 152.0 25.4 63.8 33.1 1,504.2 27.8 4,4L.3. 1972 LL,196.7 28.7 334.8 28.8 72.2 28.6 2,115.0 35.8 6.350.6 1973 2,510.1 132.5 505.9 15.0 59.0 25.7 1,3.70.6 14.7 4,434.0 1974 N1ay- 1/ Sept. 1,924.9 71.1 358.8 6.3 39.5 21.3 1,225.0 3.8 3,651.3 j MRD, Marketing Department Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, (1973) (D ANNEX 13 Page 3 Objectives and Proposals 4. In view of the high cost of imports if required in a deficit year, and the continued opportunity for profitable exports to Zaire in the foresee- able future (see Agricultural Markets and Prices Annex), Zambia will be well-advised to maintain a policy of keeping a reserve until mid-February each year, by which time first estimates of the ensuing season's crop will be known. WMhether a reserve a 50% of domestic demand is correct needs further study. Surpluses can be released for export, but countries which offer long- term markets--Zaire, and initially Tanzania also--cannot afford to be totally dependent on chance surpluses and at least basic quantities for such exports would be included in production plans. 5. The strategy to meet this target will be to maintain production from the large-scale commercial sector through price policy and greater farm management assistance to emergent large-scale Zambian farmers, and to encourage much greater production from small-scale farmers near the line-of-rail and markets, currently drawing supplies from the line-of-rail, in the Southern, Central, Copperbelt and parts of the North Western, Luapula and Northern Pro- vinces. Self-sufficiency, which can be achieved through integrated projects in Rural Growth Areas (RGAs) based on maize, should be reached in all outlying provinces. In parts of Northern, Luapula and North Western Provinces, which are either close to the Copperbelt market or to export markets in Zaire and Tanzania, an export surplus can be envisaged. Correct pricing policy will be the key to success. 6. In the Eastern Province, only self-sufficiency plus a local reserve should be envisaged, and diversification to other profitable crops should be encouraged. To immediately alleviate the need for Eastern Province maize and speed this diversification policy, the price incentive should be reinforced by a package maize project with smallholders in reserve areas close to the line-of-rail in the Central and Southern Provinces. It is there that, due to smallholders long exposure to commercial agriculture, the most rapid re- sponse to incentives can be anticipated. Once a stage is approached when small farmers on the line-of-rail or in export-potential provinces are pro- ducing the majority of maize required for self-sufficiency, incentives should be given to large-scale farmers to diversify away from maize. Rice Background 7. Rice has always been a minor crop in Zambia, grown largely for subsistence or local sale in a few restricted localities, always below 1,300 meters, in the valleys of the Zambezi, Luapula, Chambeshi and Luangwa Rivers as dambo (swamp) rice. Since 1970, a French SATEC aid team has developed ANNEX 13 Page 4 small-scale rice production through an extension project in the lower Luapula Valley, and Northern Province provincial extension staff have aided rice development on the Chambeshi River. Both these schemes have been based on increased extension, improved seed supply, improved implements, credit, fer- tilizers and improved marketing. A small area of irrigated rice is being developed on the shores of Lake Kariba in Southern Province, and floating rice trials are being carried out by Research Branch on the Zambezi Flood Plain at Mongu. Performance 8. The present recommended Indica varieties have yielded over six tons/ha on experimental plots and in some small-farmer pilot trials, but average yields for most farmers in the SATEC project have fallen in the one to two ton range. At the present price of 15 n/kg of paddy, rice is an attractive proposition for the small farmer; and further increases in produc- tion from the Luapula and Northern Provinces can be anticipated. If double cropping proves feasible, irrigation development near Lake Kariba should also be an economic proposition, and will use land not at present under cul- tivation. Rice marketed through official channels in the past five years is given in Table 13.2. With imports running at a level equivalent to 6,000 tons of paddy, the 1975 target will still only displace 17% of imports, so there is ample scope for an increase in rice production. Table 13:2: MARKETED PADDY RICE PRODUCTION BY PROVINCE (Metric Tons) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974* 1975 Target Luapula 89 93 96 217 472 580 Northern 86 114 110 128 192 240 Eastern 1 43 64 91 120 180 Western 92 29 12 50 56 70 N. WIestern 7 8 4 1 16 20 275 287 286 487 856 1,080 * 1974 figures are estimates. Source: MRD, August 1974. Objectives and Proposals 9. The best scope for immediate development is to build on the encourag- ing results of rain-fed rice, utilizing flood control in river valleys ithat has been developed in Northern and Luapula Provinces. The present 400 ha under rice in Luapula Province, and 150 ha in Northern Province would nleed a ANNEX 13 Page 5 six-fold expansion to satisfy existing demand. An attainable five-year target would be two-thirds of the anticipated demand of 7,600 tons in 1980 from expan- sion in these two provinces, by the inclusion of a major rice component in integrated agricultural projects in RGA's in each province. Some 2000 ha in the Luapula, and 1,500 ha in the Chambeshi Valley would be developed, building on the experience of existing pilot schemes that are based on improved exten- sion, seed, fertilizer, credit, marketing and milling facilities. With a yield of only 1.5 tons, the 5,250 tons produced would represent 70% of demand in 1980, and give improved incomes to some 4,500 farmers, each on average cultivating 0.8 ha of paddy. 10. With the increased attention recommended by the mission for irriga- tion, rice is likely to feature in projects proposed for the Barotse Flood Plain and Lake Kariba, and possibly also in the cropping program recommended for the Kafue Flats. Other areas requiring feasibility studies for large- scale irrigation, in which rice would certainly feature as a crop, are on the Chambeshi Flats, and on the fringes of Lake Bangweulu. The sites are detailed in the Annex on W4ater Resources. Self-sufficiency in rice by 1980 might require a further 1,200 ha developed under irrigation, with a yield of 2 tons/ ha. Beyond 1980, further expansion could not only meet increased demand, but also enable profitable exports to Zaire. Wheat and Barley Background 11. Wheat has been successfully grown in Zambia only under irrigation in the dry season; and production dwindled from 2,500 tons, accounting for 15% of local requirements, in 1964 to nil in 1968, when imports totalled 60,000 tons. In 1974, 112,000 tons were imported. Production fell because it was no longer economic to grow wheat, with yields then averaging only 2-1/2 tons/ha and a price fixed at 1967 import parity of only K 8.00 per 90-kg bag. However, subsequent trials by Projects Division and Research Branch in the period 1969-74, using new varieties (Umniati, Zambezi I and II and Z.CA/13 are now recommended) are giving yields in the four- to six- tons/ha range and commercial farmers should be able to achieve 4 tons/ha. The import parity price has now risen to over K 20 per ton; and Government has set a producer's price of K 16.00 per bag for the 1975-76 growing season which is expected to be sufficient to encourage production by commercial farmers with existing irrigation facilities and also to encourage some new capital investment in irrigation. Over 50 commercial farmers apparently intend to grow irrigated wheat during the 1975 dry season. Objectives and Proposals 12. Zambia's objective should be to move towards self-sufficiency as soon as possible, but at the same time to stem rapidly rising demand for wheat-bread by reducing consumer subsidies (the present subsidy is over 100%). ANNEX 13 Page 6 In a country with such low rural incomes, it is inequitable that an imported cereal is subsidized to wealthier urban wage earners, who have now come to regard wheat as their staple food. Consumers should pay the economic price on imported luxury items: a social argument can be made for subsidizing maize as a basic food, but not wheat. 13. To meet the current demand with yields of 4 tons/ha, over 25,000 ha would be required. Even if the 50 commercial growers average 20 ha each this season, only 1,000 ha would be grown, and production would meet 5% of total demand. If this season's results are encouraging, it is possible to visualize over a 5-year period a maximum of 100 commercial farmers growing 40 ha each, providing 15% of total demand. Sufficient seed is produced locally for such a program. In addition, detailed feasibility studies should be carried out for combined state/private commercial/external aid ventures in large-scale irrigated wheat, at sites proposed in the Water Resources Annex, fringing the Kafue Flats and northeast of the Big Concession in Central Province, as well as the Munkumpu area of the Copperbelt, where a study financed by the Federal Republic of Germany has already been initiated. Over a ten-year period, possibly 10,000 ha could be sown to wheat, the major constraint being avail- able water in the Kafue. This would account for a further 40% of existing demand. 14. As a third source of wheat, the Government has given approval for a rain-fed wheat scheme financed by Canadian Aid in the Kalomo-Livingstone area. As no trials have yet been done, the success of this venture is problem- atic, but if initial results are encouraging, the Canadians visualize rapid expansion based on medium-size commercial farms with 100-200 ha of wheat, each initially managed by Canadians but handed over to Zambians trained on the farms. However, whereas full research and field experience are available for dry season irrigated wheat, the rain-fed program will have to start from scratch, using imported wheat varieties, and thus, at this stage, it is not possible to postulate the growth of production. If, however, the scheme is successful, its expansion could be much more rapid than the irrigated crop with which it would compete strongly with lower yields but much lower costs. 15. Suitable varieties of malting barley are also available for irri- gated production in the dry season, and it is anticipated that self-sufficiency in this sphere can be rapidly reached by commercial farmers under contract to brewers. Cotton Background 16. Cotton growing is confined to the Central, Southern and Eastiern Provinces, where it grows well on the plateau areas and in the Luangwa Valley. Further north, heavier rainfall (in excess of 40"), late showers in April and ANNEX 13 Page 7 May, and fewer sunshine hours retard growth and necessitate more costly pest control. After being first introduced in the 1930's, pest problems led to near-cessation of production in the 1950's. The advent of new insecticides led to a resurgence of interest in the crop in the 1960's, when it became firmly established as a smallholder crop. Albar 637 is the major variety grown, fertilizer requirements are low, but labor input is high for weeding, spraying and picking. Performance 17. More attractive maize prices caused commercial farmers to cease cotton production in 1970, and subsequently caused a decline in smallholder production, especially in 1973 and 1974. A 90Z-100% producer price increase (from 15-17 n/kg in 1972-73 to 30-32 n/kg for Grade A cotton in 1974-75) has revived interest in the crop, and five commercial farmers will also be growing cotton in the Mazabuka District in the coming season. The importance of cotton seed for oil expression is discussed in para. 38 below. Recent produc- tion figures by province are given in Table 13.3. Table 13.3: SEED COTTON PRODUCTION BY PROVINCE, 1967-74 (Metric Tons) Province 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974* 1975 Target Central 4,254 4,051 10,418 7,561 4,592 2,000 11,720 Southern 1,309 306 610 521 139 120 1,030 Eastern 1,343 779 711 237 401 380 750 Total 6,906 5,136 11,739 8,319 5,132 2,500 13,500 * 1974 figures are estimates. Source: IfRD, August 1974. 18. The 1975 target figures, which were based on an earlier 1974 estimate of production of 6,300 tons, are unlikely to be reached, but could be produced in 1976, providing the right balance between the cotton and maize prices are set, particularly to encourage production in the Eastern Province. With demand for lint by Kafue Textiles anticipated to rise to 6,000 tons of lint (requiring 18,000 tons of seed cotton) by 1980, further production increases will be required. Apart from the key relationship with the maize price, new varieties at present being selected by Research Branch, and intro- duction of ULV spraying (which reduces labor and water requirements) should both contribute to increased cotton production. Zambia already has sufficient ginning capacity at Lusaka and Chipata to handle an 18,000 ton crop. ANNEX 13 Page 8 Objectives and Proposals 19. Zambia should aim to be self-sufficient in cotton in the early to mid 1980's, producing 18,000 tons of seed cotton. Major cotton elements should be included in smallholder projects for Southern, Central and Eastern Provinces. In view of the price interrelationships, and the need to develop improved farming systems, an integrated approach should be used. In Southern and Central Provinces cotton would be a subsidiary cash crop to maize, but in Eastern Province it would be the major cash crop, with alternatives of ground- nuts and Burley Tobacco. A necessary prerequisite for the cotton element in these projects would be improvements in price policy, and it should be recognized that an ingegrated project wrill take perhaps a decade to become fully effective. The program should therefore be long-term and consistent. Government should also reviexw the planned expansion of Kafue Textiles, and study the economic feasibility of alternatively locating another textile plant in Chipata. Virginia Tobacco Background 20. Virginia Tobacco is the most important of the several types of tobacco that have been grown in Zambia. After its introduction in the 1950's, production reached a peak of 10,970 tons in 1964 from an area of 10,500 ha. Since then, a combination of the departure of expatriate growers and a move from tobacco to less labor-intensive crops brought about by labor problems and wage increases led to a fall in production from the large-scale commercial sector. Production is now increasing again With the development of assisted tenant and, more especially, smallholder development through the Tobacco Board of Zambia (TBZ), as can be seen from the planted area figures from 1972-75 in Table 13.4 below. Table 13.4: VIRGINIA FLUE-CURED TOBACCO PRODUCTION, 1967-74 Average Producer Area Planted Yield Year Production Price (K/ton) (Ha) (Kg/ha) 1964 10,970 513 10,440 1,050 1965 6,610 602 6,639 996 1966 6,570 675 6,867 957 1967 4,950 668 4,605 1,075 1968 6,290 674 5,924 1,062 1969 5,020 777 5,829 861 1970 4,790 802* 5,467 876 1971 5,910 808* 5,634 1,049 1972 5,530 890* 4,920 1,124 1973 6,230 859* 5,423 1,147 1974 6,200 987 6,738 918 * Includes subsidy. Note: 1975 planted area is 8,224 ha. Source: MRD and TBZ. ANNIEX 13 Page 9 Performance 21. TBZ was set up in 1967 to control tobacco processing and marketing, and in 1968 it entered the production field. In 1974, TBZ had 71 tenant farmers growing 1,847 ha of tobacco, 108 assisted tenants growing 1,036 ha, 1,596 family farmers growing 851 ha, and 818 ha under direct production at some of the schemes and at its two staff- and farmer-training colleges, Mukonchi and Popota. From being responsible for 40% of the total crop in 1970, TBZ farmers and schemes produced 64% of the crop in 1974, or nearly 4,000 tons, of which 640 tons (11%) of the total crop came from the small family farms. Future expansion will largely rest on these smallholders, who are expected to number 2,384 in 1975 and to grow 1,297 ha, a 50% increase over 1974. This steady expansion should enable the currently underutilized capa- cities of the auction floor and packing shed to break even within three years, instead of incurring losses. In addition, greater production should attract more buyers, and the greater competition result in better prices. The subsidy introduced in 1970 as an incentive to keep farmers in production by guarantee- ing a minimum price, was not paid in 1975, as the average price of 98.7 n/kg exceeded the guaranteed minimum of 94 n/kg. This minimum may need review in the light of cost inflation, and a close watch is needed on relative prices, particularly of maize, which can be a competing as well as a complementary crop. Objectives and Proposals 22. Zambiats immediate objective should be to increase production, both to increase the volume of exports and to fully utilize the capacities of her auction floors and packing sheds. In view of labor cost increases, it seems likely that future expansion will largely rest on family farms. The existing IBRD-assisted Family Farming tobacco project made a good start in this direction and appears to offer the best approach to future development, for which expansion areas have already been identified. However, in mid-1975, farmer recruitment was only two-thirds of projection, and although production of maize, a complementary crop within the scheme, was ahead, tobacco production was only 55% of projected levels. The reasons for this situation should be reviewed urgently, and in particular the role of a high relative price of maize in the Eastern Region in limiting both farmer recruitment to the scheme and tobacco production within it should be investigated. Burley Tobacco Background 23. Burley Tobacco is an ideal smallholder crop, as it is air-cured in simple barns and fits well in a rotation before maize or groundnut, which benefit from residual fertiiizer. It grows best in heavier loam soils and needs a medium, 35"-45", rainfall regime, and thus does best on the red sandy ANNEX 13 Page 10 clay loams of the Eastern, Central and Southern plateaus: it should also grow well on similar soils to be found at Kaoma (Western), Kasempa (North Western) and Mpika (Northern Province). Performance 24. Burley Tobacco was introduced into the Eastern Province of Zambia in the late 1930's, and by 1950 there were 2,530 growers, producing 150 tons of tobacco. Due to falling prices, production declined, but experienced another revival in the early sixties, peaking at a production of 800 tons in 1964. Prices again declined, and only a few small-scale growers kept exper- ience with the crop alive, until prices improved again in the late 1960's. In 1971, TBZ took over responsibility for production and marketing of the crop from the extension branch of the Department of Agriculture, and with improved prices the crop has steadily expanded. In 1974, a buyer contracted to purchase the whole crop at 88 n/kg, guaranteeing a price of 94 n/kg for 1975, and 99 n/kg for 1976. This substantial price increase, which will more than keep pace with rising input costs, wqill cause a more rapid expansion of the crop. At present, 96% of production is in the Eastern Province, but TBZ has plans for other areas of the country, including parts of the Southern Province, Kaoma in the Western Province, the Kasempa area of the North W4estern Province and Serenje and Mfpika Districts in the Central and Northern Provinces. Production figures and targets for the period 1969-75 are given in Table 13.5 below. Table 13.5: BURLEY TOBACCO PRODUCTION, 1967-75 Harvest Hectares Crop Average Yield Total Value Average Price Year Planted Marketed kg/ha K'000 (n/kg) 1969 408 240 588 122 50.7 1970 436 255 584 143 56.2 1971 611 388 635 218 56.2 1972 569 385 676 221 57.3 1973 678 471 693 224 61.1 1974 642 430/1 670/1 379/1 88.2 1975 1,242 900 - 7250 850 - 94.4 /1 Estimates. Source: Ministry of Rural Development. Objectives and Proposals 25. By 1980, the aim should be to increase the existing 600 ha,of Burley to 1,300 ha in the Eastern Province, and, at the same time, initiate production, integrated with other crops, in RGAs in other provinces., Burley is a suitable crop for specific areas mentioned above, and 200 ha could be ANNEX 13 Page 11 established at each of the sites mentioned in the Central, Northern, North Western Provinces, and 500 ha in the Southern Province. The speed of this depends on the phasing of the various projects, but by the mid-1980's it is possible to visualize some 2,300 ha under production, a four-fold increase. With good price prospects, Burley Tobacco will be a competitive cash crop in suitable areas, and the major constraint is likely to be shortage of trained extension staff. It will thus be necessary to expand training programs for burley extension staff at the PoDota Institute in Choma. Other Tobaccos 26. Oriental Turkish Tobacco was an important smallholder crop in the high rainfall areas in the late 1950's and 1960's; but with falling prices, production became uneconomic. With the future still uncertain, it would appear unwise to reintroduce Turkish Tobacco or to experiment again with cigar leaf, as is being suggested; instead TBZ should concentrate on Virginia flue-cured and Burley production. Groundnuts Background 27. Apart from the Chalimbana confectionery nut, which is grown in the Eastern Province as a cash export crop, the majority of groundnuts are grown for subsistence, or for trading through informal channels. The Eastern Coop- erative Union (ECU) buys groundnuts in Eastern Province, grades and normally exports about 60% of its purchases for the confectionery trade, and, after supplying local confectionery requirements, sells the remainder to Refined Oil Products for oil expression. In other provinces, groundnuts marketed through official channels are generally sold for oil expression. 28. In all areas, farmers grow local varieties for subsistence, but the major improved variety multiplied and made available to farmers for cash crop- ping is Makulu Red, which does well in most areas of the country, except in the lower rainfall areas of Southern and W4estern Provinces, where a more suitable variety, Natal Common, is grown. Groundnuts are entirely a small- holder crop, and are demanding in labor, particularly for shelling. Suitable shellers have been devised for the uniform nuts used for oil expression, where some percentage of breakage is immaterial; but the Chalimbana nut is not only irregular in shape, but hand-shelling is needed to get the premium grade prices for unbroken nuts. Owing to the danger of cross-pollination, Chalimbana production is concentrated in Eastern Province, and Makulu Red confined to other areas of the country. Rosette and cercosphora leaf spot ANNEX 13 Page 12 are the main disease hazards, and in the high-rainfall areas with acid soils 'pops' (empty shells) can be a serious problem, especially with the Makulu Red variety. Liming is needed to combat this problem. Performance 29. The 1970-71 Census gives an indication of the location and scale of groundnut production for the 1969-70 crop season (Table 13.6). Table 13.6: GROUNDNUT PRODUCTION AND MARKETING (SHELLED WEIGHTS) Quantity % of Yield Quantity Sold to Total Area Production 80 kg Sold % of Official Qty. Province '000 ha (tons) bags/ha (tons) Total Markets Sold Eastern 45 15,460 4.3 6,140 40 2,583 42 Northern 23 11,180 6.1 2,880 26) Luapula 20 8,750 5.4 2,580 29) Copperbelt 27 14,500 6.6 5,740 40) 687 5 Central 7 3,610 6.2 1,130 31) Southern 27 11,350 5.4 1,810 16) Western 7 3,400 6.2 410 12) N. Western 5 1,930 5.4 610 32) _ Totals 161 70,180 5.5 21,300 30 3,270 15 Source: 1970/71 Census of Agriculture. 30. This table illustrates the geographic spread of production, though the Copperbelt figure seems rather high and Central Province correspondingly low. The figures from Eastern Province, confirm that the Chalimbana variety is lower yielding; and the overall average level of only 5 bags/ha bears witness to low plant populations, and generally less attention given to groundnuts compared to other crops. Using efficient cultural practices a smallholder can average 12-15 bags/ha. Labor input for the crop is high, and with existing margins per man hour lower than for other crops, no marked increase in production is likely without improved prices and greater exten- sion effort. Only 30% of the crop is sold. In the Eastern Province, 42% of this (18% of total production) passes through official marketing channels, whereas in other areas only 5% of the marketed crop does (1-1/2% of total production). 31. Table 13.7 shows recorded groundnut marketing figures for the past ten years, with the percentage marketed from the Eastern Province. ANNEX 13 Page 13 Table 13.7: MARKETED GROUNDNUT PRODUCTION,/ 1964-74 Total Marketed Eastern Province Share Price /2 Harvest Production Amount % of Total (K/ton) Exports- Year (tons) (tons) Grade A (tons) 1964 3,630 2,260 62 114 620 1965 6,740 5,826 86 121 2,710 1966 11,530 10,886 94 121 3,480 1967 14,810 13,667 92 125 4,450 1968 5,390 4,717 86 125 6,170 1969 7,820 6,894 88 125 4,876 1970 3,270 2,583 79 125 3,920 1971 6,160 5,498 89 128 3,400 1972 6,480 6,078 93 128 2,450 1973 2,960 2,560 86 157 3,630 1974 5,060 4,608 91 212 N/A /1 Marketed production only includes that through marketing agencies, and does not even include that sold direct to oil expressors. (In 1968, for example, one oil expressor bought 1,600 tons from farmers in Central Province). /2 Much of exports are from purchases of the previous year. Source: IMRD and Marketing Boards. Objectives and Proposals 32. For Chalimbana groundnuts in Eastern Province the initial aim should be to restore production to the 1966-67 level of 12,000 tons by 1983. Over the past five years, production has averaged only 4,300 tons. A prere- quisite to this achievement is a change in price policy in favor of cotton and groundnuts at the expense of maize. Current groundnut prices are 40% below estimated border-price equivalents. 33. In other areas of the country, groundnut production for oil should be encouraged within the context of integrated crop projects in RGAs in each province. In most areas, the project would be based on the Makulu Red variety, but in the acidic-soil, high-rainfall areas, where 'pops' is a problem, breeding selection for an improved variety is needed. ANNEX 13 Page 14 Sunflower and Soya Beans Background 34. In view of high imports of vegetable oil, and problems associated with the expansion of groundnut production, the Government instituted a National Oilseeds Development Program to implement the SNDP policy of achiev- ing self-sufficiency in vegetable oils by 1981. To augment oil sources from groundnuts and cotton seed, both sunflower and soya bean production have been encouraged, utilizing results from research on varietal selection and agronomy that was instituted in 1968. 35. The encouragement of sunflower has been based on two major varieties-- Zambian Vniimk A and Mount Makulu Composite. With an extension drive, sun- flower production has expanded rapidly with both large-scale and small-scale farmers. Cultural practices are straightforward and similar to maize, but the crop is demanding on the soil, gives widely fluctuating yields (varying from 1/4 to 1 ton/ha) and is difficult to harvest. Further varietal selection is needed to obtain reliable and stable yield levels; combine harvesting is needed for large-scale farmers, and more applied research into harvesting methods for small farms is needed. 36. Soya Beans need a higher level of management than sunflower for successful yields, but available varieties--Geduld, Hernon 147, Davis, Hale and Bossier--are capable of giving yields of 1-1/2 to 2 tons/ha. With inoculum to ensure nodulation, the crop fits well in a rotation and is becoming increasingly popular with large-scale farmers for oil or for protein for livestock. Harvesting, however, is again a problem. 37. Generally, soya production is now being favored by large-scale farmers, and sunflower by small-scale. Areas planted by province in recent seasons, and targets for 1975 are given in Table 13.8: ANNIEX 13 Page 15 Table 13.8: PLANTING A4D PRODUCTION OF SUNFLOWER AND SOYA BEANS, 1973-75 Sunflower Soya Area in hectares /1 Area in hectares / Province 1973 1974 1975 1973 1974 1975- Southern 1,616 2,690 5,380 NA 540 1,150 Central 1,707 3,920 6,610 NA 55 500 Eastern 100 200 400 - 25 Copperbelt 64 135 270 NA 74 200 Northern - 30 45 - - 25 Luapula - 27 40 - 36 50 N. Western - 13 20 - 3 25 W4estern - 55 80 - 2 25 Total (ha) 3,487 7,070 12,845 260 710 2,000 Production /2 1,050 3,500 7,670 173 580 2,590 (tons) Yield (Kg/ha) 301 495 597 654 817 1,295 /1 1975 figures are targets, but are unlikely to be achieved in 1975. /2 Sunflower Production in 1971: 16 tons; in 1972: 163 tons. Source: Oilseeds Officer, MRD, 1974. Prospects and Proposals 38. In 1974, 20% of national demand for vegetable oil was satisfied by the local crop, as 2,800 tons of crude oil were produced against a total demand of 14,000 tons. Of the domestic supply, 41% was from sunflower, 30% by cotton seed, 26% by groundnuts and 3% by soya beans. Future increases in production will require competitive pricing, a renewed extension drive, further breeding, especially for sunflower, and applied research on sunflower and soya harvesting, groundnut shelling, and cotton spraying. Rather than being fostered through a special oilseed project, the crops should be in- cluded as specific components of regional projects in growth areas, and, in some areas, may justify special incentives through regional price policies. Present producer prices are about 20% below import parity and should be increased to give the necessary incentives to farmers. Whereas soya expan- sion will come initially largely from large-scale commercial farmers, and could be included in a rotation with irrigated wheat grown during the rainy season, sunflower has advantages as a smallholder crop. ANNEX 13 Page 16 Coffee Background 39. There are a number of locations in the northern areas of Zambia where soil, climate and topography are excellent for the growth of Arabica Coffee, and yields of 1 ton/ha of clean coffee can be obtained. From the 1920's to the 1940's, some coffee was growm by commercial farmers in the Mfbala area of Northern Province. Production declined due to low prices and disease problems, but there was a resurgence in interest in the crop in 1954, with the development of smallholder rain-fed coffee production at Nakonde in Isoka District. In 1959, a detailed agronomic research program, based at Misamfu Research Station at Kasama and with trials at Mbala and Mpika, was instituted; this has continued for 15 years. Problems of extension, input supply and marketing have, however, led to a widely fluctuating production from the 50-100 farmers involved; and an irrigated direct production scheme run by Projects Division at Ngoli has had a checkered career, due to management and development problems. Performance and Prospects 40. Coffee production has limited potential and should remain concen- trated in Northern Province at the sites already being developed. The Ngoli Scheme is scheduled to expand from the present 36 ha to 80 ha. Around tiakonde, the area of coffee, currently rainfed, is to be expanded to include areas of irrigated development and utilizing a package approach to include improved extension, input supply, credit, processing and marketing. A further develop- ment at Chilwa, near Mbala, has also been initiated based on smallholders. Pulping factories now exist at Nakonde and Ngoli, and Rucom has a processing plant at Misamfu which mills, roasts, grinds and packages coffee ready for distribution and sale. 41. Production from Nakonde has fluctuated between one and five tons of cherry over the past ten years, and Research Branch has also been marketing their coffee together with the Nakonde crop. From 1965-67, this coffee was exported for sale at Moshi, then sold to a local firm in Zambia prior to Rucom's involvement in 1973. Production since 1971 from the four existing sources is shown in Table 13.9 below. ANNEX 13 Page 17 Table 13.9: CLEAN COFFEE PRODUCTION AND YIELDS, 1971-74 Area Yield Production (Tons) (Ha) (Kg/ha) Site 1971 1972 1973 1974 1974 1974 Nakonde 1.90 1.46 2.05 1.70 34.0 50 Ngoli - 0.30 1.40 2.50 16.0 155 Research Branch 4.00 - /1 - /1 14.00 5.5 2,500 Chilwa - - - 0.30 0.8 375 5.90 1.76 3.45 18.50 56.3 328 /1 Coffee was not harvested and sold by Research in 1972 and 1973. Source: Tree Crops Officer, MRD, and MRD Statistical Section. Objectives and Proposals 42. Improved extension and management are obviously vital to increase production at Nakonde and Ngoli from existing coffee, quite apart from new planting. Sites for outgrowers at Ngoli should also be investigated and developed. It should be possible to obtain average clean coffee yields of 1,200 kg/ha under irrigation, and 500 kg/ha with rain-fed production. Some 50 tons should satisfy local demand for Arabica; thereafter it would not be difficult to export small quantities of this high quality coffee. Coffee production at the suggested sites should be fostered on a modest scale, envisaging production up to 250 tons by 1985 as a component in Rural Growth Areas, but a thorough review is needed and improved organization, management and extension will be essential requirements. A program of this size in addition to the 80 ha at Ngoli could involve 1,000 farmers, each producing 1/2 ha of coffee. Tea Background 43. In 1960, the first trial plots of tea were established in Zambia at Mpika, Mbala and Kawambwa; in 1965, a plot was established at Solwezi. A 1965 Commonwealth Development Corporation (CDC) Mission reported favorably on the prospects for tea (and coffee) growing in Zambia, and further trials were instituted at Kasama. In 1968, a pilot tea project was established on a ANNEX 13 Page 18 site near Kawambwa, but this has developed slowilv with management and irriga- tion development problems. It has now been taken over by the Rural Develop- ment Corporation (RDC), which has budgeted for constructing a processing factory in 1975 and is seeking technical management assistance from Sri Lanka. The history of planting at Kawambwa, which has been very slow, is given in Table 13.10 below. Table 13.10: TEA PLANTING AT KAWAMBWA PROJECT Hectares Comments 1969 3.03 Ready for plucking trials 1970 22.26 In reasonable condition 1971 55.66 In reasonable condition 1972 16.19 In very poor condition, 50% will need replanting 1973 22.29 In good condition 1974 20.00 141.43 Source: MRD Tree Crops Officer. Prospects and Proposals 44. Neither plucking trials to establish yield levels, nor miniature manufacturing have been attempted. In view of the potential for tea develop- ment, it is apparent that considerably more effort is needed to expand and develop the tea estate and factory at Kawambwa, and to start planning neigh- boring areas for outgrower schemes. A minimum of 300-400 ha of mature tea within 4-8 hours of a factory are needed to establish a minimum viable unit. The best way to effective development would be for Government to go into partnership with established tea developers, who would conduct plucking trials and production and market tests on existing tea and, given satisfactory results, would then develop and manage the estate: later area expansion should incorporate outgrowers. It is suggested that Government explore such a possibility immediately. Investment in factory and estate might total K 650,000 (US$1 million). Sugar Background 45. Investigations into the possibility of sugar growing in Zambiia com- menced in 1964, when Tate and Lyle Ltd. established 120 ha of experimental cane on the Kafue Pilot Polder near Mazabuka. From this developed the ANNEX 13 Page 19 Nakambala Sugar Estate, where by 1971 3,500 ha were under production: a further 2,570 ha have been developed in 1972 and 1973, and the system is being extended by a further 2,500 ha in 1974 and 1975, giving over 8,500 ha under the crop. Production from the estate and a few large-scale outgrowers has grown rapidly, as can be seen from Table 13.11. Table 13.11: SUGAR PRODUCTION, 1969-1975 (Tons) 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 Estimate Production (tons) 30,400 40,131 41,546 51,118 58,125 65,000 95,000 Yield (ton/ha) 12.4 14.0 11.6 13.9 13.0 11.8 Source: MRD Statistical Bulletin, and Zambia Sugar Company. Objectives and Proposals 46. Although self-sufficiency will be reached in 1975, in view of the rapid expansion of demand, further sugar development will be required for the local market. A project for an additional 4,000 ha of land at Nakambala, envisages expansion of production by 1980 to 150,000 tons/annum raw sugar. Elsewhere, a site north of Mumbwa has been considered for further sugar expan- sion but, as this is on the Kafue where water availability is a constraint due to downstream power requirements, other potential sites in less-developed provinces need investigation. Ample water is available on the Chambeshi, and the point at which this river crosses the Kasama-Mpika section of the Tazara rail link would be a good location for market access: soils in this area, however, may be limiting and need careful investigation. In view of the need for a further 90,000 to 100,000 ton expansion by 1995, a feasibility study in the area is recommended. Sorghum, Millet, Cassava and Beans Background 47. The major subsistence crops, other than maize and groundnuts, are sorghum, finger millet, cassava and beans. Tables 13:12 and 13:13 give the provincial statistics for these four crops. 48. Finger ,Lillet (eleusine coracana) is most important in Northern, Luapula and Western Provinces, and is much used for local brewing. Sorghum, on the other hand, is more important along the length of the Zambezi and in ANNEX 13 Page 20 Table 13.12: MILLET AND SORGHUM PRODUCTION BY PROVINCE, 1969-70 Millet Sorghum Ha Produicti on Yield of Ha Production Yield 7o of Proviinee '000 (tors) t/ha Tolal '000 (tons) t hF: Total so3 d sol d Central 7.4 4,100 0.55 30%/ 13.1 G,500 0.50 24% Copperhol 0.08 300 0.3a 21i% 8.8 13,9t00 1.58 24 0% Easterri 11.9 6,000 0.50 l8o% 5.4 1,000 0.19 a % LuapLUla 9.6 7,600 0.79 29% 0.3 50 0.17 36% NorLhevni 63.6 38,700 0.89 17% 4.0 4,500 1.13 11% N. Wester 9.4 6, 500 0.69 28% 11.7 6,000 0.51 23 % Sout hE-r I 7.1 2, 200 0.13 9% 15.0 8,400 0..56 12% Westeril 40.7 1 0.48 21% 19.3 11,100 0.58 27% Total 13t0.5 84,900 0.65 21% 77.6 51,450 0.66 21%/ Source: Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 Table 13.13: CASSAVA AND LEGUME PRODUCTION BY PROVINCE, 1969-70 Cassava Legurme I/ Hia Production Yield % of lia Production Yiold %/ ol '000 (tons) 2/ t/ha Total '600 (totns) /-a Total Sold SolId Central i 6 1,430 0.89 3% 4.0 2,010 0.50 43% Copperbelt 8.5 5,350 0.63 46% 13.3 5,000 0.38 48% Eastern 2.2 3,610 1.641 30% 12.8 2,730 0.21 15X Luapula 41.2 51,060 1.24 19% 4.9 2,220 0.45 36% Northern 40.3 53,650 1.33 14% 25.6 9,020 0.35 27 % N. Western 34.0 40.120 1.18 23% 4.6 2,650 0.58 31/o Southern 0.25 200 0.80 10, % 5.0 2,290 0.46 23% West.ern 33.6 200040 0.62 18% 4.9 2,110 0.43 19% Total 161.7 176,260 1.09 19% 75.1. 28,030 0.37 31% j Legumes are principally beans, but also include cow peas, sun hemp, and pigeon peas. / Cassava meal equivalent. Source: Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 ANNEX 13 Page 21 parts of Luangwa Valley. Sorghuim tends to displacc maize as a major subsistence crop in the lower-rainfall areas, as it is more resistant to droughlt; it is also used for local breuing, and lhas been grown commercially for brewers. An improved variety of finger millet was bred at 'ount Malkulu in the 1960's, and some new varietal research is being conducted on both these crops at present. 49. Cassava is an important staple in tlhe river valleys and swamps of thc high-rainfall areas of the Luapula, TNorthcrn, North Nlestern and Western Provinces, and it was introduced in the 1030's to the northern plateau areas as a famine-relief crop. Its value as a cheap constituent of animal feeds has been studied, hut as yet not developed- neitlher lhas its potential use as a source of starch. These uses may 'have development potential. nnly 207' of production of sorghum, millet and cassava is sold, and that mainly through informal local channels. Ilowever, in the vicinity of the Copperbelt market, nearlv 507' of cassava production is traded. 50. Beans are an important subsistence crop, and nearly a third of the beans produced are traded locally or to major markets through informal channels. Principal production areas are N1orthern, Eastern (Oorthiern Districts) and C.opperbelt Provinces. Varieties are generallv local mixed ones, but white haricot and speckled sugar beans are available as pure seed, and a breeding and agronomy researclh program has been carried on at the iNorthlern and Copperbelt Research Stations. In some areas, sesame, pigeon peas, and cowpeas are grown, amongst otlher legumes, while in Souithern Province some more progressive farmers grow sunhemp as a green manure crop. Objectives and Proposals 51. In suitable areas, a bean component should be included in the proposed regional cron projects; while a feasibility studv should be considered for cassava production close to TAZARA for starch and stocl. feeds. Further research is needed on sorghum varieties for the low-rainfall areas, and beans on a national basis. Fruits and Vegetables Background 52. The production of fruit and vegetables has increased considerably over the period 1968-1974, with the estimated total annual value of production rising from K 2.3 million in 1968 to K 3.3 million in 1974. Table 13.14 gives approximate quantities of production for this period. ANTNEX 13 Page 22 Table 13.14: NATIONAL MARKETEI) PRODUCTION OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLES, 1968-74 (Tons) Year Fruit Vegetables Year Fruit Vegetables 1968 2,200 15,500 1972 5,900 27,700 1969 3,100 17,200 1973 5,500 20,000 1970 4,800 21,000 1974 6,000 25,000 1971 5,600 24,000 Source: Ministry of Rural Development. 53. The majority of production is close to the major markets and is carried out by a few large-scale commercial farmers and many smallholders, a few of whom have irrigation. The ban on imports in 1970 was partly responsible for the rapid expansion of the production of onions, potatoes. tomatoes, cabbage and bananas; and the setback in 1973 was caused by Government-imposed price control, which has since been lifted. Performance 54. Fruit. Together with some large-scale growers, two Projects Divi- sion irrigated schemes, one of 13.4 ha at Chiawa on the Zambezi in Central Province, and one of 68 ha at Mununshi in Luapula Province supply much of the commercial banana market. The major problem is eelworm, and yields on the Government schemes are averaging only 20-22 tons/ha. Pineapples are grown by smallholders on 382 ha at Ikelenge, near Mwinilunga, and much of the crop is sold fresh on the Copperbelt, but some is canned at the local Indeco Cannery. Citrus is dominated by a few commercial producers, but a national nursery program with twelve nurseries in the provinces distributed 32,000 seedlings in 1973 and 50,000 in 1974. In 1975, 80,000 seedlings will be distributed: 10,000 in each province. This successful nursery program, run by the Agriculture Department, is also distributing seedlings of guavas, pawpawrs, avocados, leechees, grenadillas and mangoes to improve both nutrition and cash incomes in the rural areas. One large-scale producer is successfully marketing peaches near Lusaka. The potential for apple and grape production is being investigated. Another large-scale proclucer is pioneering tfhe export of fruit to Europe, particularly strawberries, melons and avocados. Low freight rates, set to encourage use of almost empty backloads for cargo fliglhts froa Europe, offer some scone for expansion in this field, but such1 cargo space is unreliable and the trade calls for considerable expertise and flexibility. 55. Iregetables. Production is dominated by onions, tomatoes, potatoes and cabbage, for whlich there is the highest demand, but a variety of other vegetables are grown for the high-income groups or for relish for the general ANNEX 13 Page 23 populace. Self-sufficiency has been reached in onions, tomatoes and cabbage, and only potatoes are now imported in fresh form, though there still is a considerable import of canned vegetables. 56. Research into vegetable and fruit production is being carried out at the Kafue Irrigation Research Station and on the Copperbelt, where an FAO Horticultural Training School also exists at Chapula. West German aid is assisting with research, and is planning a large-scale production project at Munkumpu on the Copperbelt for citrus, canned vegetables and wheat production under irrigation. This development, together with further expansion of large- scale commercial growers and of small-scale producers in peri-urban areas, should satisfy local demand. Extension efforts in the more distant rural areas should focus on improved nutrition and sale to local urban markets. A horticultural extension follow-up program has been initiated, and a Horticul- tural Crops Development Committee is being set up to include representatives of grower, marketing and consumer interests. The Committee will advise on production, marketing, pricing and processing policies. Objectives and Proposals 57. Government should continue to encourage, by distribution of seeds, seedlings and extension advice, greater production of fruit and vegetables for nutritional value and local sale through the Village Productivity Commit- tees. At the commercial level, large-scale farming needs little assistance, apart from Government restraint from price controls. A major effort in peri- urban development should be made with small-scale irrigation (based on gravity- fed irrigation, where possible) for vegetable and fruit production. A propo- sal for large-scale vegetable production to satisfy canned vegetable require- ments is being prepared under a West German aid project at Munkumpu on the Copperbelt. Other Crops 58. Some other crops are being investigated or developed in Zambia; those worthy of mention are cashew nuts, oil palms and pasture legumes and grasses. 59. Cashew. Some 800 cashew trees were established in the Mongu area of W4estern Province in the period 1958-63, and, with little extension advice in the intervening period, these trees are now being harvested for cash sale. The best trees yield 35 kg/year. A processing plant for extracting kernels from raw nuts has been established by the university. This plant will be moved and set up in Mongu next year. Since 1973, seedlings have been produced and distributed in the Mongu area to farmers and institutions, research has been carried out at the local station, and Government has been assisting in the expansion of smallholder production for which there is a large ready market. ANNEX 13 Page 24 In view of the limited crop potential of Western Province, cashew development, which will provide useful additional income to smallholders in the Mongu area, should be encouraged. 60. Oil Palms. In the late 1950's, oil palms from Nigeria were introduced in the Luapula Valley, but these varieties, though now mature, are unsuited to local conditions. A new research effort was instituted in 1973-74 with varieties from Malaysia. Depending on the outcome of agronomy trials, consideration could be given to a nucleus estate with outgrowers for oil production in the Valley, but the prospects are not good, and scarce research expertise might be better directed elsewhere. 61. Pasture. With more farmers becoming involved in intensive beef pro- duction, considerable interest is being shown in pasture establishment and the introduction of legumes. Stargrass propagated by runners is favored for perman- ent pastures, Rhodes Grass for leys, and various legumes, of which the main ones are stylosanthes, siratro, glycine and dolichos. A ready market is thus emerging for seed production for legumes and Rlodes Grass, and, in view of harvesting problems in large-scale production, might be an ideal crop for smallholders in supervised schemes. ANNEX 14 Page ZAIMBIA AGRICULTUi?AL AND iMURAL SECTOR SURVEY WATER RESOURCES: POTENTIAL, USE AND DEVELOPIENT Paragraph(s) Introduction 1- 2 dater Resource: Potential, Use and IManagement 3 -4 diater Resources Potential 3 - 19 Present dater Uses 20 - 27 W1ater Resource Organization, Regulation and Financing 28 - 46 Present and Prospective dater Use for Agricultural and Rural Areas 47 - 79 Rain-fed Agriculture 47 48 Irrigation 49 - 69 itural Water 5)upply and Development 70 - 75 Cattle ;Watering 76 - 79 Constraints and Recommendations on Water rA Development and Use 80 - 99 Manpower 81 - 82 Equipment 83 - 86 Technical Shortcomings 87 - 91 Finance 92 - 95 Organizational and Legislative 96 - 100 Development Proposals 101 - 122 Pronosals for a National Water Strategy and Policy 101 - 103 Irrigation Program Proposals lO - 108 Rural Water Supply Proposals 109 - 111 Cattle Watering Proposals 112 - 113 Cost Recapitulation of Long-Term Agricultural dater Use Development Program 114 - 117 External Assistance Proposals 118 - 122 Appendix I: List of Useful Documents Appendix II: Estimated dater Resources Appendix III: Yearly Rainfall Pattern (July 1970 - June 1971) Appendix IV: Long-Term Rainfall Distribution Appendix V: Groundwater Occurence and Distribution Data Appendix VI: Groundwater Extraction Through Boreholes AppendixyIl: Theoretical Water Losses Appendix VIII: Hydropower Capacity and Production, 1973 Appendix IX: Domestic 'dater Supply, 1973 Appendix X: 'dater Supply Responsibilities by Functions, 1973 Appendix XI: Organization of the D4A, 1973 ANNEX 14 Page ii Table of Contents - Continued Appendix XII: Organization of the Provincial Water Service Within the DIWA, 1973 Appendix XIII: 1973 Water Supply Budget Appendix XIV: Existing Irrigation Schemes by Province (1974) Appendix XV: Potential Large-Scale Irrigation Development by River Basin Appendix XVI: Capital Costs and Technical Aspects of Large-Scale Irrigation Schemes Appendix XVII: Cormmrcial Farm Medium-Scale Irrigation Appendix XVIII: Government Farm Medium-Scale Irrigation Appendix XIX: Commercial Small-Scale Irrigation Appendix XX: Proposed Irrigation Coordinating Committee (ICC) Appendix XXI: Technical Inventory of the Existing Rural Supply Water System for a Rural Water Development Program Appendix XXII: Project Outlines A.NNX 14 Acronyms and Abbreviations - DeparU:rrit-:,+ Jit-+r A"fairi r >t!- Lj l;r c.r cco:5d *)c.r' k:,. - (of draw dJwn) - :*3.1licn of cubi': ctci-: _ Natior:l& Irr.J '.ioni I. - iacc'S_tat.4on (0iafn-n) F Parts p.-r .lillion . .- Zambia i.'lectricity -u-.l9 2or-oration, Ltd. JZ - Zam bi National .nerg.- Jorouoration Conversion Table Nletric Uriits - -3ri tish Units 3 ir!- 2 E 'C (m /s! = 35.,1 c Is (cusez) :1. iit'- 1i/sec (l,3s) = 0.035 cfs (cusec) - -tiinmeter \CrM) = - 7 Ve (M) = 3.-' Zect 1.09 yards 1 'iloneter (ku) = r k i sc. ineter (i22) = i.'0 " ct= 1.19 sq. yard. i-':;are nC( i17 = =CrFSS 1 s. icilometer (kmn 0 . ' S-A niles ' - ci. krilme ter 'tf4 L Lion cu. metprs) (k'9) = 3>7 * re feat. !k-iloram (kL:b = .?0- lbs 0.001] ehOrU ton!f; 1 ict"r/s.c (3/2) - 9 ANNEX 14 Page 1 ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY WATER RESOURCES: POTENTIAL, USE AND DEVELOPMENT Introduction 1. This annex aims at a country-wide synthesis of estimated water resources, and proposes a development program for their prospective use in the agricultural sector and rural areas. The contents were derived from a critical analysis of verbal information and existing documents (Appendix I). 2. A series of five maps showing the distribution of water resources, rainfall distribution, monthly rainfall by region, a breakdown of water usage, and irrigation development potential, appears at the end of the main report. Water Resource: Potential, Use and Management Water Resources Potential 3. Average Medium-Term Water Balance. At first glance, the country's water potential, estimated over 15 years (1955-69), is impressive: 90 bil- lion cubic meters (km3) of yearly run-off, renewable water belonging to the hydrological cycle, and 150 km3 of water in storage (Appendix II). Run-off is a small proportion (12%) of the 760 billion (km3) precipitation. However, Zambia's water balance is that of the semi-arid tropics, with a high propor- tion (88%) going in evaporation. 3 4. The yearly run-off comprises the flood run-off, 74 km , and the base flow, 16 km3. Deep percolation and underground flow into neighboring countries, estimated at about 24 km3, are included in the evaporation element of the water balance. The distribution of water resources is shown in Map IBRD 11544 at the end of the main report. 5. Stable Run-Off. The natural conditions in the country--existence of large underground reservoirs, lakes, swamps, flood plains---favor the natural regulation of the base flow, about 11 km3 of which originates from groundwater (12% of total run-off). 6. The flood run-off is partially regulated by man-made reservoirs. The estimated total live storage 1/ of 22 km3 includes 50% of the regulated 1/ The useful water volume of a reservoir; the rest being dead storage. ANNEX 14 Page 2 flow from the Kariba Reservoir. 1/ Mulungushi and Mita Hills Dams, as well as several hundred small capacity dams (up to 500,000 m3/unit), are not included in this estimate. 7. The stable river run-off, the most useful water of the country- amounts, therefore, to 38 km3 per year, or 42% of the total run-off. It would place Zambia among the well-off African countries in terms of water resources if the run-off were artificially regulated by man-made reservoirs, and if 22 km3 or 24% of the total run-off did not occur where it is almost useless to Zambia--at less than 200 km before entering Mozambique. Because of this, the country can benefit only from the 16 km3 of naturally regulated run-off, or 18% of total run-off. 8. Water in Storage. A conservative estimate of the volume of water in storage within the country in underground reservoirs swamps, lakes and dead storage of man-made reservoirs is more than 150 km . This could be as high as 250-300 km3, depending on the effective porosity of the groundwater reservoirs. The stored water is distributed in various underground or sur- face reservoirs. 9. Atmospheric water and, more important, moisture in the soil and in the unsaturated zone 2/ have not been estimated because of the lack of ade- quate data. Since they have a residence time of less than a year, they are included in the evaporation element of the water balance. Water stored in river channels is negligible at country level. 10. Water Occurence and Distribution. Rainfall decreases almost regularly from 1,400 mm/year in the north to 700 mm/year in the south (Map IBRD 11547). The yearly rainfall is concentrated from November to April (the rainy season) over a period which varies between six months in the north and four months in the south (Appendix III and Map IBRD 11547). The rainy season may be interrupted by variable periods of drought. Over a 50-year period, the recurrence of low rainfall years was about two per decade. Such low rainfall years affect mainly the southern region, where yearly minima of 400-600 mm/year create drought conditions (Appendix IV). 1t. Run--off drains away through the upper Zambezi catchment, including the Kafue and Luangwa sub-catchments and through the Chambeshi-Luapula River System which is, in fact, the upper Zaire catchment. A smaller catchment, Lufubu, drains into Lake Tanganyika. For planning purposes, four river basins may be considered: Zambezi Kafue, Luangwa and Chambeshi-Luapula, including Lufubu. 1/ The waters have not yet been legally apportioned between Zambia and Rhodesia. 2/ Between ground level and the hydrostatic level of the water table where infiltrated water is temporarily stored in the soil and evaporated or circulating slowly downwards. ANNEX 14 Page 3 12. The river regime is quite simple, the major part of the yearly run-off (83%) is drained during the rainy season through a river network which is dense except in the west. During the dry season, the base flow (17,%) is drained by the four main rivers and some tributaries. Perennial water exists in the main rivers, in all the tributaries of the Zambezi down to Livingstone, in most of the Chambeshi-Luapula tributaries, in some of the Kafue, and inma few tributaries of the Luangwa. 3 13. The base flow, 16 km , occurring from May to early November, is variously regulated by groundwater reservoirs (Kal'ahari Sands for the Zambezi, limestone for the Kafue), by lakes (Bangweulu for the Luapula), by swamps (Lukangwa for the Kafue, Bangweulu for the Luapula), and by flood plains (Barotse for the Zambezi, Busanga and the Kafue Flats for the Kafue). The low flow takes place during the two-month (September--October) period, with a total discharge of 686 cubic meters per second (m3/s). The lowest flow discharge recorded within a 15-year period (1955-69) is 338 m3/s (Appendix II). 14. Good quality water--less than 500 parts per million (ppm) of total salt content--is generally available in all seasons, including during the low-flow period. 15. Groundwater occurs almost all over the country, at least within the first 350 feet explored to date. It is located in various water-bearing for- mations: Kalahari Sands (80,000 km2),. limestones (10,000 km2); alluvial deposits (60,000 km2); and in the Karoo and basement complex. Groundwater occurrence is well documented over the country and discharge data per bore- hole are available according to the different water-bearing formations (Ap- pendix V). Discharge data have been compiled for over 2,000 boreholes (Ap- pendix VI) they vary by water-bearing formation from one to eight 1/s/borehole with an unknown drawdown. 1/ With a frequency of 80%, the following dis- charges could be obtained in a borehole: Discharge/Unit Sp ecific Yield 2/ (1/s/m) Limestone aquifer 20 - 40 1/s 4.5 - 9.2 Kalahari sand aquifer 10 - 20 l/s 0.7 - 3.3 Alluvial deposits aquifer I - 15 I/s 0.7 - 1.2 Basement and other aquifers 1 - 1.5 1/s 0.1 - 0.4 1/ Height between the water level before pumping (hydrostatic level) and the lower water level reached by pumping (piezometric level). 2/ Discharge in liter per second per meter of drawdown (see previous definition). ANNEX 14 Page 4 The effective discharge potential per borehole is still unknown due to inadequate exploration techniques, and these figures should be considered as a minimum, subject to improved exploration and drilling. 16. Depth to water generally ranges from 5 m to 10 m, with extremes of 2 m to 25 m. Fluctuation of the hydrostatic level 1/ is about 2 m to 3 m between the end of the rainy and dry seasons. All aquifers are saturated, and depletion is not noticeable. Good quality water, ranging from 100 to 500 ppm of total salt content, could be expected almost everywhere with a few exceptions in the Southern Province in the Lusitu area (2,000-6,000 ppm). The main components NaCl and CaCo3, range respectively between 4-50 ppm and 5-250 ppm. 17. The proportion of productive or successful boreholes (over 0.1 l/s) is about 70% in the public sector where the drilling of a borehole is preceded by a siting phase; the siting consists of a geological and geo- physical micro-survey with a view to locating two or three sites per bore- hole. However, the proportion of productive boreholes remains variable (Appendix VI). 18. Water Losses. The major portion of the water resources is lost back to the water cycle within the country (670 km3/year). Natural evapo- transpiration remains the major loss with about 560 km3. Deep percolation and underground flow into neighboring countries is estimated at about 24 km (Appendix VII and Map IBRD 11546). 19. The average evaporation ranges from 1,470 mm/year in the north to 2,290 mm/year in the south and 2,300 mm/year in the west. The peak period is September-October, with an average of 325 mm/month, while the lowest month is less than 100 mm/month. Present Water Uses 20. Hydropower represents the major user of water resources at present. In 1973, hydropower accounted for 91% of the electricity generated in Zambia (Appendix VIII and Map IBRD 11548). Although power generation is usually a non- consumptive use, under the circumstances in Zambia where the generating sta- tions, such as Kafue 2/, are located downstream of the river and have been allocated rights of water use, they become in effect consumptive users as far as future upstream needs are concerned. 1/ The upper part of the saturated zone or water table. 2/ Kafue Gorge Station on the Kafue River generates 78% of the country's hydrogenerated electricity. ANNEX 14 Page 5 21. The eight existing hydro-stations are generating power mostly on the run--of--river flow: the run-off regulated in favor of hydropower by dam- reservoirs (Kafue Gorge, Mulungushi, Mita Hills) is still very low, 30 m3/s (33% of the hydropower requirements). In 1978, after completion of the Itezhitezhi Dam, upstream of the Kafue Gorge it will reach 225 m3/s, or 86% of the hydropower requirements estimated at 5.8 km3/year. 22. Domestic Water S]pgly. About 75% of the urban and 10% of the rural population is served by piped-water systems. The total use, including wastage and leakage, is about 0.3 km3/year. Another 40% of the rural popula- tion is served by wells and boreholes, with a total use of about 0.025 kn3/ year. The rest of the population uses river or stream water for a yearly total of 0.01 km3 (Appendix IX). Therefore, only 0.35 km3/year of the 90 km of water resources (0.4%) is accounted for by domestic water use. About 0.25 km3 could be re-used after treatment. An optimistic forecast would raise domestic water use to about 0.625 km3 (or 625 million m3 ) /year in 1986. 23. Irrigation, as implemented in 1973, requires 0.075 km /year, with a peak discharge of 8.5 m3/s to cover the needs of 8,300 hectares, of which a 6,500 ha scheme of sugarcane represents a critical peak demand of 7.5 m3/s on the Kafue River. 1/ Water requirements for irrigation in Zambia, taking into account a 70% irrigation efficiency, vary from 900 mm/year to over 1,100 mm/year. Requirements for IrLriation Province mm Province mm Central 915 North Western 963 Copperbelt 932 Northern 906 Eastern 1,126 Southern 1,013 Luapula 988 Western 1,033 24. To sum up, the present water uses of the country are: 3 3 Annual (km ) Peak Demand (m Is) Hydropower 2.835 90 Domestic Use 0.350 15 Irrigation 0.075 8.5 3.260 113.5 Of the 3,260 km 3/year, a volume of 0.945 km3 is regulated by dam-reservoirs (30 m3/s). The peak demand not regulated by man-made reservoirs is there- fore 83.5 m3/s, which represents a withdrawal from the low-flow discharge of 686 m3/s or 12%, and from the lowest discharge of 338 m3/s, or 24%. 1/ In 1979, the scheme will be 11,700 ha requiring a peak demand of 12.3 m3/s. ANNEX 14 Page 6 25. The water use per caput in Zambia is 300 m /year, but without use for hydropower is only 104 m3/year per caput, a typical figure for a developing country. Water mobilization in Zambia is very low, especially in the agricultural sector and rural areas, and use shows a distortion in favor of hydropower, mainly for the mining industry. 26. Multiple-Use Conflicts. Within the Zambezi, Luangwa and Chambeshi- Luapula Basins there is enough water, even at the low--flow period, to satisfy present and medium-term water demand without any conflict. In the Kafue Basin, however, potential conflicts are foreseeable: limited water resources, mainly at the low-flow period; insufficient naturally regulated run-off; high water demand for hydropower located downstream, fast-growing irrigation for industrial crops (sugarcane); increasing demand for water supply for the country's major cities; and single-purpose (hydropower) dam construction in a basin that has the best prospects for agriculture production. 27. For the medium-term, possibilities of compromise exist because of the differing rates of increase in demand for hydropower, domestic water supply or irrigation, the last being the slowest. However, the time has come, at least for the Kafue Basin, to plan the medium-term allocation of water resources based on an accurate water inventory and a wise policy for water use. Water Resource Organization, Regulation and Fundin 28. The allocation of water resources to potential users is properly the responsibility of Government. Such responsibility is currently entrusted to a Water Board which acts on an ad hoc basis according to specific requests. To this effect, the Water Board was created and attached with a full-time secretary to the Ministry of Rural Development (MRD). The Water Board is mainly concerned with the allocation of water rights for surface water. Under the chairmanship of a Minister of State, it includes four ex-officio members, including the Director of Water Affairs, and three ordinary members. 29. Responsibility for coordinating national water resource development and for planning its balanced utilization lies with MRD. 30. Domestic water supplies are the responsibility of various central and local government agencies: Ministry of Local Government and Housing. Department of Water Affairs (DWA) of the Ministry of Rural Development, Building Branch of the Ministry of Power, Transport and Works (MPTW), muni- cipalities and town councils. Their responsibilities are summarized in Appendix X. 31. Rural water supplies are the responsibility primarily of the Department of Water Affairs and the Building Branch (BB) of MPTW. Since 1972, the BB's responsibility has been progressively transferred to DWA, which is also taking over responsibility for local authority (rural and town- ship council) guidance. The Provincial Water Engineers of DWA are also ANNEX 14 Page 7 responsible for the construction of rural water supplies financed by other ministries, and of water points for cattle watering. The organization of DWA is indicated in Appendices XI and XII. 32. Irrigation development is the responsibility primarily of the Department of Agriculture (DA) within MRD, mainly through the Land Use Ser- vices, in coordination with the Projects Division and with DWA. More speci- fically, DWA acts as an advisor and sometimes as a constructor of the source of water for irrigation. At province level, the DA has an Agricultural Engineer who is responsible for local irrigation. 33. The generation of the country's hydropower, except at the Kariba Project is the responsibility of the Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) which functions under the Zambia National Energy Corporation (ZNEC) of the MPTW. ZESCO is also responsible for the construction of dam reservoirs required for a regulated run-off adequate for power generation. The main dam reservoirs involved are: Kafue Gorge, completed in 1970 (0.8 km3 live storage), and Itezhitezhi, on the Kafue, likely to be completed in 1978 (4.2 km3 live storage). 34. Management. Water affairs are managed at the central government level and through the administrative pattern of the provinces and districts. The central level is responsible for general management, planning and administration. The provincial and district levels are responsible mainly for operations, repairs and maintenance. Because of a heavy volume of administrative work, limited professional use is made of the technica:L quali- fications and experience of the Provincial Water Engineer. 35. The provincial management pattern is adequate for rural domestic water supply which represents the bulk of water activities. It is no longer adequate, however, for water planning and for water-rights allocation, which would be better dealt with at basin level. The rather critical water situa- tion in the Kafue Basin, for example, could best be handled by a Water Basin Authority, even the embryo of which does not exist in the present water affairs management. 36. The manpower situation in the field of water is characterized by the absence of Zambian engineers and the extreme shortage of sub-professional nationals. At present, the country's water affairs are managed entirely by expatriates. Thus, there is a chronic need for the planning of appropriate training programs in water resource development and management for Zambian nationals. 37. Government Funding. Since independence (1964), Zambia has financed its domestic water supply programs without external assistance. However, large-scale water development projects have been financed by the private sec- tor (Mulungushi and Mita Hills Dams), or with external assistance (Itezhitezhi Dam, sugarcane irrigation supply). ANNEX 14 Page 8 38. The Government, through the Ministry of Finance and via the Ministry of Local Government and Housing, loans money to local urban authorities for water supply. 39. The Ministry of Rural Development has funds budgeted and entrusted to DWA for township water supply and for rural water development. In 1973, the budgeted allocation to DWA for water supply was K 700,000 (of which K 400,000 was for rural water supply) to cover recurrent charges, and K 2 400,000 (K 400,000 of which was for rural water supply) of capital fund. 40. At provincial level, rural water supply benefits mainly from the Provincial Development Committee funds for cooperatives and village water supply, In 1973, the provincial allocation was K 1,020,000 (Appendix XIII). Rural water supply benefits also from the Rural Council Water System Finance. This fund of about K 140,000 per year is mostly in a deficit position. Other departments, Education, Health, etc., also allot funds to DWA (up to K 160.000 per year) for schools, hospitals, etc. 41. Annual allocations for rural water supply throughout the country range as high as K 1,900,000: K Provincial Development Committees 1,100,000 DWA 500,000 Rural Council Water System 140,000 Other Ministries (Education, Health, etc.) 160,000 Total 1,900,000 42. No specific budgeted amount is allocated for irrigation developmerit to the Department of Agriculture of MRD. 43. External Assistance. The Bank Group is providing funds for the hydropower complex of Kafue Gorge, Iteshiteshi; of the US$115 million loan for this project, it is expected that US$100 million will be spent on the construction of the dam and power stations. The total project cost is estimated at K 172 million (US$260 million). 44. The 1973-77 UNDP Country Program, with an Indicative Planning Figure (IPF) of US$ 15 million, includes two water-related projects in the irrigation sub-sector: the Chapula Irrigation Project in the Copperbelt Province (US$0.5 million) and assistance to the National Irrigation Researcih Station, Mazubuka, Southern Province (US$0.14 million). In 1976, the Chapula Project will become a National Irrigation Institute, and will receive con- tinued assistance from UNDP. ANNEX 14 Page 9 45. The Federal Republic of Germany is providing assistance for: (a) a survey of Munkumpu area and a large-scale irrigation scheme of 17,000 ha potential, with a feasibility study over 4,600 ha as a first phase: and (b) in cooperation with UNDP, the Kafue National Irrigation Research Station. It is also considering technical assistance for a study of wastage in Lusaka's water system. 46. The USSR implemented a drilling program for the period of the SNDP (1972-76). This program for domestic water supply in the Eastern Province is being carried out with a team of Russian experts and five per- cussion rigs. As of November 1974, 145 boreholes had been drilled in the basement complex, with an 83% efficiency rate. 300 boreholes are likely to be drilled during the project, which will also train Zambians in drilling techniques- At the end of the SNDP the drilling rigs will be handed over to the DWA against deferred payment. Present and Prospective Water Use for Agricultural and Rural Areas Rain-fed Agriculture 47. The rainy period (November-April) coincides with the period of highest temperatures, thus creating optimal conditions for vegetative growth of a wide variety of seasonal (summer) crops, of which maize is the prin- cipal one. Low-rainfall years (550 mm/year or less), which occur one or two times per decade (Appendix IV), and drought periods during the rainy season may affect crop production. The lack of production data does not, however, allow a close correlation. 48. Although rain-fed agriculture can be practiced throughout the country, crop production will be closely related to the annual and seasonal vagaries of rainfall. The southern region, particularly, suffers from occasional drought. Also, farming activity remains limited to a five-month period. Irrigation would introduce an element of certainty to agricultural production and also provide for a longer period of farming activity which would allow double cropping. Irrigation 49. Irrigation in Zambia is limited to 7,700 ha, of which a large-scale scheme of 6,500 ha of sugarcane represents the bulk. The remaining 1,300 ha are scattered over the country through small- or medium-scale 1/ schemes (Appendix XIV). All water sources, except groundwater, are used for irriga- tion; groundwater is used only on a few commercial farms. 1/ Small-scale scheme: up to 20 ha) Medium-scale scheme: 20-200 ha) arbitrary criteria for this report. Large-scale scheme: over 200 ha) ANNEX 14 Page 10 50. Large-Scale Irrigation. Irrigation should contribute to the achievement of such national objectives as reduction of food imports, eco- omic progress, and more efficient use of natural resources. As a first step the Zambia Sugar Company (ZSC) now irrigates an area of 6,500 ha producing 84,000 tons/year of sugar. Around 1976, self-sufficiency could be reached with an irrigated area of 8,250 ha producing 97,500 tons/year. Still later, the area would be increased to up to 15,400 ha (200,000 tons of sugar), with a view to exporting sugar and/or to keeping pace with the growing demand. 51. Increased production of wheat is also a major governmental goal. The 1973-74 import bill for wheat was K 10 million, and this figure is likely to increase to K 50 million by 1981. Wheat has been successfully grown in Zambia only under irrigation in the dry season. Some 65,000 ha of irrigated wheat could be needed to reach self-sufficiency by 1995 1/ in state and private commercial ventures in large-scale irrigation with small holders' farms. At present, irrigated wheat is still on small-scale schemes of commercial farmers and on state trials. Other crop production (rice, vegetables, fruits coffee, sugar, etc.) important to the country could require an additional 40,000 ha. With no complementary resource constraints 100-120,000 ha 2/ under irrigated agriculture could be a long--term Government objective. 52. Is such a target compatible with the availability of water and soil resources? Theoretically, the water requirements would be 1.2 km3/year with a peak demand of about 100 m3/s, and the stable run-off, including groundwater flow, could provide such an amount without incurring major ex- penses for the source of water. In fact, however, problems of water avail- ability already exist locally in the Kafue Basin, for example, where most of the country's water requirements are concentrated. 53. Soil surveys have been carried out throughout the country on a reconnaissance basis. Moreover, semi-detailed soil surveys over about 100,000 ha are completed or under completion. A semi-detailed land-use map of the country is also under completion. Knowledge on soils which are suitable for irrigation is sufficient to identify the country's irrigation development potential through large-scale schemes (Appendix XV and Map IBRD 11545). 54. A total area of 140,000 ha with suitable soils and terrain for large-scale irrigation can at present be identified. Of this area, a total of 110,000 ha could benefit from stable run--off (run-of--river), with minor capital cost for the source of water and its transfer to the land. The 1/ To achieve self-sufficiency in 1975 would have required 30,000 ha. 2/ Wheat 65,000 ha; sugar 15,000 ha; rice 5,000 ha; fruit, vegetables 10,000 ha; open 5-25,000 ha. These are indicative figures. ANNEX 14 Page 11 remaining 30,000 ha would require the construction of dam-reservoirs at reasonable costs. This does not take into account the huge irrigation po- tential of the Kafue Flats, where an area of over 100,000 ha could be irri- gated from river water if more flood run-off were regulated by the heightening of Itezhitezhi Dam. 55. The Kafue Flats deserve special attention because of their huge irrigation potential. The heavy clay soils close to the river 1/ and the portion of the red soil fringe or flat margins (about 10,000 ha at Nega-Nega), which is also close to the river, could be irrigated, especially for wheat. However, water availability remains the limiting factor. A total of 12.4 m3/s water rights had already been awarded against the 15 m3/s lowest flow of the river. An amount of 2.6 m3/s remains to be allocated. Another 4.4 m3/s will be made available to agriculture from the Itezhitezhi Dam-Reservoir when it is completed in 1978. Theoretically this discharge of 7 m3/s could irrigate 6 400 ha during October. 2/ If wheat were irrigated in the flats, the remaining 7 m3/s would be ample for 15,000 ha, since the main irrigation period is July-August. This area would be further increased through the heightening of the Itezhitezhi Dam for irrigation purposes, an action which is under serious consideration at present. It should be closely related to a large-scale development program of irrigated wheat and to the sugarcane program of ZSC. 56. Cost of Large-S_1cal_Irrigation (1974 prices). 3/ The capital invest- ment cost of land and water development (surface irrigation), excluding irrigation works, amounts to about 656 K/ha. It includes the pumping station on run-of-river, the water conveyance from water source to the scheme, the night storage reservoir, and the land preparation and levelling. Costs could vary from K 557/ha in southern schemes to 738 K/ha in northern ones. Land preparation and levelling (clearing and grading) represent 45% of costs (Appendix XVI). The capital investment cost of irrigation works (gravity system) is an additional 984 K/ha (926 in the south, 1.066 in the north). Therefore, the capital cost of a large-scale irrigation scheme would be about K 1,640/ha, 4/ and the final cost K 2,590/ha, including K 328 for contingencies and design and K 622 for buildings, centralized equipment and farm machinery. 1/ According to the successful experience of the Kafue Pilot Polder (1956-64) and to the Tate and Lyle Report (August 1974). 2/ According to the water rights awarded to Zambia Sugar Company: 7.1 m /s for 6,500 ha and not considering the evaporation likely to take place between the dam and the area to be irrigated. 3/ Based on price increase of: 1971: 6%; 1972: 6%; 1973: 17%; 1974: 25%. 4/ For a scheme of about 3,00-4,000 ha. ANNEX 14 Page 12 3 57. With a cost of water of K 0.036/m , recurrent expenses have been estimated at about K 360/ha and per year. 58. An alternative to usual surface irrigation might be polder irriga- tion. According to a recent study (July 1974) on a 9,600 ha irrigated wheat area within a polder in Kafue Flats comprised of heavy clay soils, the capital investment cost per hectare decreases from K 3,460 on 1,200 ha to K 1,250 on 9 600 ha. The rate of implementation is 1,200 ha/year. preceded by a two-year cropping experiment phase on 140 ha. The capital cost includes the pilot polder and experiment cost, the development machinery and the infrastructure. but excludes agricultural costs. If the capital cost of agriculture and recurrent costs (operating, direct farming and general expenses) are included, the cost per ha will be K 4,200 on 1,200 ha and K 1,550 over 9,600 ha. After the first year of scheme implementation (1,200 ha), the revenue is K 634/ha, it stabilizes at K 575/ha after the last year of implementation. Obviously, capital-intensive polders should not be utilized initially in a large-scale wheat production scheme which would be better initiated on the fringe of Kafue Flats under usual surface irrigation. 59. Medium- and Small-Scale Irrigation. These schemes are intended to be planned and implemented at provincial and district levels, or by the private sector. They should represent a flexible means of agricultural production which could easily form part of a rural development strategy. Because of the schemes' low water requirements. they can be located almost anywhere in the country and thus within easier access to water sources than large-scale irri- gation schemes. Because of its diffused occurence, groundwater could play a major role in such schemes. The co-existence of good soils and available water has far greater prospect. 60. Cost of Medium- and Small-Scale Irr igtion. The major limits on development of medium- and small-scale irrigation are socio-economic criteria rather than natural resource conditions, except in the eastern region where water resources are severely limited. In order to illustrate the main pos- sibilities of medium- and small-scale irrigation, three cases have been appraised by the Mission: (a) a 160-ha commercial farm (Appendix XVII); (b) a 60-ha Government farm (Appendix XVIII); and (c) an 8-ha local community scheme (Appendix XIX). The capital investment cost of water development and irrigation works is as follows (1974 prices 1/) (a) 160-ha commercial (sprinkler irrigation) K 812/ha (b) 60--ha Government farm (surface irrigation) K 1,910/ha (sprinkler irrigation) K 1,235/ha (c) 8-ha community schemes (surface irrigation) K 2,255/ha 1/ Based on price increase of: 1971; 6%; 1972: 6%; 1973: 17%; 1974: 25%. ANNEX 14 Page 13 61. The capital cost of water source (boreholes) and irrigation works at the commercial farm is the most viable one. Even this cost could be slightly reduced (to K 750) with an improved borehole construction technique and technical guidance. 62. The 60-ha Government farm is more a pilot and experimental scheme than a normal crop production scheme. Heavier equipment costs than necessary have been incurred. Investigation of water sources potential and location was kept to a minimum. Groundwater potential was not explored. Sprinkler irrigation is but a graft on the surface irrigation system. Such costs per ha should be considered as a maximum. Recurrent expenses for surface irriga- tion have been estimated at K 350/ha/year, with a cost of water of K 0.040/m3; for sprinkler irrigation at K 290/ha/year, with a cost of water of K 0.047/m3. Normally, a scheme on this scale might be expected to have a capital cost of K 1,300/ha for surface irrigation, and K 1,050/ha for sprinkler irrigation. 63. For the 8-ha community scheme, the K 2,255/ha capital cost for water works is high, because of the small area that has been put under irriga- tion. Experience suggests that a 20-ha scheme may be the optimum size, and a capital cost of K 690/ha close to reality. 64. From a 1970 study of small irrigation schemes, 1/ the capital cost of water and irrigation works was (in K/ha): 1970 1974 Estimates - Source of water by pumping + surface irrigation 500-700 820-1,150 Source of water by pumping + sprinkler irrigation 490-530 800-870 Source of water by gravity diversion + surface irrigation 365 600 Should storage become necessary, experience in the Eastern Province suggests that the construction cost of man-made reservoirs of 150,000 to 300,000 m3 capacity is between K 0.23 and 0.46/m3 3/ of stored water. A capital invest- ment cost of K 0.30/m3 represents a fair average. Therefore, the capital cost of the water source comes up to K 2,000/ha to 2,500/ha for a scheme of not more than 40 ha. 1/ Italconsult Report, December 1970. A small irrigation scheme was about 200 ha. 2/ Based on price increase of: 1971: 6%; 1972: 6%; 1973: 17%; 1974: 25%. 3/ 1974 prices. AiNNEX 14 Page 14 65. The following figures, including water source, land preparation and irrigation works, could be considered as fair estimates (1974 prices K/ha). 2/ Source of Water Pu_ng Gravity Surface Sprinkler Diversion 1rra t ion Irrigation Large-Scale Irrigation 1/ 1,640-92,700 2/ higher than 1,640 - Medium-Scale Irrigation (20-200 ha) 1,150-1,300 810 3/-1,050 600 Small-Scale Irrigation (up to 20 ha) 4L0-500 4/1 700-800 4/ 690 66. Research, Trainina_and Management. Irrigation in Zambia is still in its infancy; it is practiced on scattered schemes as a preliminary test of new crops, including coffee, citrus, pineapples, bananas, rice, maize, wheat, and vegetables. Although there is little experience in and knowledge about irrigation, steps have been taken to rectify this situation. 67. In 1973, the Government with the technical assistance of UNDP and West Germany, established a National Irrigation Research Station (NIRS) on the soil margin of the Kaf.ue Flats near Mazabuka. The NIRS objective is to facilitate (a) experimentation under Zambian conditions in soil-water-plant relationship for development of irrigated agriculture, and (b) determination of irrigation systems., agronomic practices and suitable crop varieties. 68. In 1975, with the assistance of FAO/UNDP, the 60-h1a Government farm at Chapula, 15 knm southwest of Kalulushi (Copperbelt), will be turned into a National Irrigation Institute with the following objectives: (a) To run training Courses for technical field personnel from the eight provinces of Zambia; and (b) To conduct shorF'- courses for Natural Resources Development College (NRDC) students. 1/ For a scheme of about 3,600-4,000 ha. 2/ 1,860 K/ha for sugarcane Hrrigation over 4,020 ha (ZSC data computed in Nov. 1974); the 2,700 K/ha figure refers to polder irrigation. 3/ Commercial farm. 4/ Rough estimates. ANNEX 14 Page 15 69. Irrigation Policy and Strategy. It is expected that an Irrigation Coordinating Committee (ICC) will be created (Appendix XX) to conceive the irrigation policy at national level with a view to reducing staple food imports and creating new "poles" of technical and economic progress. This committee should take into account the necessity of encouraging irrigation development in the private sector. Development planning and programming should be done at the national level for large-scale irrigation. Large-scale irrigation should contribute to the intensification of agricultural produc- tion, and should be implemented as soon as possible through pilot development schemes of about 200 ha, initially, followed after two years by an annual rate of implementation of 1,000 to 2,000 ha. Medium and small-scale irriga- tion should help to increase the incomes of the local population and also to improve agricultural production. For large-scale irrigation, two or three zones of development can now be identified: the Kafue Flats and mainly the flat margins, Munkumpu and Mpongwe areas, the Chambeshi Flats. Because water and soil resources are generally adequate for medium- and small-scale irri- gation, these schemes are not restricted geographically, and thus should be developed on commercial farms in peri-urban areas and around important vil- lages; these schemes should also serve as the focal point for creating new communities and settlements. Rural Water Supply and Development 70. While irrigation development in Zambia is still in its infancy, rural water supply development has already made notable progress. About 54% of the rural population (1,540,000 of a total of 2,850,000) is served by piped systems wells or boreholes. The remaining 46% (1,310,000) is still using unimproved water supplies--rivers, streams, ponds, etc. 1/ 71. The rural population is forecast to increase to 3,400,000 by the end of the fourth NDP (1986). If rural community size during that period remains at the current average of 200 persons, about 10,000 new water supplies will be needed in the next 12 years. In addition, many of the existing water facilities will require improvement during the same period. 72. Technical skill and organization for rural water supply lie with DWA. Development capital funds are allocated by DWA, by the Provincial Development Committees (PDC) and by other departments for schools, hospitals, etc. (see paras 39 and 40). Insufficient funds for recurrent expenses result in a large number of inoperative rural water supplies (up to 30%) due to lack of maintenance. (A 12-year new water supplies program of about K 14 million, for example, might result in a waste of over K 4 million if mainte- nance is not guaranteed.) 73. Rural water supplies are of four types (in order of importance): hand-dug wells, boreholes small dam-reservoirs, and small supplies pumped from perennial streams and rivers. Government policy emphasizes the digging 1/ WHO/IBRD, "Water Supply and Sewerage Sector Study,' (October 1974). ANNEX 14 Page 16 of wells by self--help under DWA guidance; the standard cost of a hand-dug well has been established at K 1.000. Boreholes are drilled where hand--dug wells are not feasible; the standard cost, based on a 70% efficiency rate, is K 3,000 per unit. Small dam reservoirs with an average capacity of 7,000 m3/unit are constructed on non-perennial tributaries for two purposes: domestic supply (or irrigation) and cattle watering. Some of the dam- reservoirs have a capacity of up to 45,000 m3. They serve a variety of uses, including small-scale irrigation. Pumped water supplies from perennial streams are a rarity. Hand-dug wells and boreholes are usually fitted with hand-pumps, made locally by DWA at the provincial level; windmills or diesel- driven pumps are also used. 74. A rough estimate of the country's present capacity for constructing new water supplies. based on samples at provincial level and taking into account local problems and constraints, is about 700/year, including 170 boreholes. In recent years, construction has varied between 660 and 770 new water supplies per year. 75. Development Policy and Strategv. A need to intensify rural water supply development is clear. It should be done at the provincial level through a rural water development program established from a technical inventory of the existing rural water supply situation. An example of how this might be drawn up is shown in Appendix XXI. The rural water development program should originate at district level and be formulated at provincial level. Water sources for medium- and small-scale irrigation development, as well as points for cattle watering, should be fully integrated into the rural water development program. Cattle Watering 76. Because of a lack of centralized data and information, it was dif- ficult to appraise the cattle watering situation. The problem was approached through data obtained in sample inquiries. The cattle population of the country is estimated at about 1.6 million head. Ranches are equipped with water points of two types; boreholes (65%) and smal[ dam-reservoirs (35%), with a distribution of a water point for every 200 to 250 ha. Costs of bore- holes and small reservoirs are K 2,000 and K 1,000 respectively per unit. 77. The capital cost invested in water points for ranches is estimated roughly at between K 3.7 million and K 4.5 million. Based on a sampling made on a 4,800-ha ranch with 3,300 head of beef cattle, the capital invest- ment cost for watering ranch cattle during the dry season has been estimated at K 18.5 to K 22.7/head. It should be noted that one water point per 200 ha represents intensive watering points development. ANNEX 14 Page 17 78. The 1.5 million cattle living on the open range (including 1.3 million head of beef cattle) are watered during the dry season mainly from lakes and perennial streams, but also from small dam-reservoirs (about 5,000 to 10,000 m3), constructed at a cost of between K 1.50 and K 2.00/m3 of stored water. A capital cost of K 1.70/m3 represents a fair average. The capital investment cost for watering livestock during the dry season through small dam-reservoirs is about: K 12.25/head of beef cattle; K 2.15/head of sheep It simply is not possible to estimate the total capital cost for open- range cattle watering. Mention should be made that in the Eastern Province, for instance, 100 small dam-reservoirs were constructed before 1971. Since then, the Government has allocated K 10,000 to K 15,000 annually per province, or sufficient funds for the construction of one reservoir. 79. The Western Province is the most densely populated province with cattle under tropical semi-arid conditions. The region of the Mulonga and Siloana Plains, where rather important nomadic and semi--nomadic herds are grazing, deserves special attention because of the recurrence of droughts (two or three per decade) and the absence of well points in this area. A development of well-distributed water points would greatly improve the grazing potential of this area. Constraints and Recommendations on Water Development and Use 80. A successful water development and use program will depend on the reduction of constraints relative to manpower, equipment, technical short- comings and finance, as well as organizational and legal inadequacies. To this end, a joint effort of GRZ action and external assistance will be needed. _anpower 81. Constraints. Long delays and inadequacies in recruitment proce- dures have resulted in a constant vacancy level of 25%. Although "Zambian- ization" reached a general level of 55% of the work force in 1973, almost none of the engineering positions and an insufficient number of the technical assistant jobs (65%) were held by Zambians. Lack of specialized education and training facilities, and poor incentives in the fields of hydrau.Lic engineering, groundwater technology, irrigation technique, etc., constitute the main constraints. 82. Recommendations. Recommended action to solve the manpower problems (in order of priority) are: (a) Organization of training courses for sub-professionals, possibly within the Natural Resources Development College (NRDC); ANNEX 14 Page 18 (b) Creation of a National Irrigation Institute at Chapula (Copperbelt Province) as a follow-up to the FAO/UNDP irrigation project; (c) Selection of junior civil servants of the DWA and the Department of Agriculture for sponsorship to attend, under special contractual agreement, School of Engineering courses at the University of Zambia; (d) Provision of attractive incentives for careers in water and irrigation engineering; and (e) Improvement of recruitment procedures. Equipment 83. Constraints. Pumps should be considered the most important means for water withdrawal from streams or aquifers. IIigh discharge pumps (over a few liters per second), including engines, are imported. Lack of foreign exchange together with long delays caused by import formalities, provoke a constant shortage of both pumping equipment and spare parts needed for proper maintenance of existing equipment. Hand pumps are made locally by Government at provincial level. Manufacturing and workshop inadequacies limit the production of these items however. 84. Boreholes are the safest water source for domestic water supply, and a fair water source for small- and medium-scale irrigation. The present borehole groundwater development program does not exceed 250 boreholes per year (including 170 by the public sector). The boreholes are constructed with the country's 46 drilling rigs, the repair and maintenance of which require spare parts from abroad and improved local workshops (Appendix VI). Special screens for sandv aquifers are manufactured abroad. 85. A shortage of lorries is a general problem with serious implica- tions in drilling performance and in operation and maintenance of water sys- tems. 86. Recommendations for the solution of problems relating to equipment (in order of priority) follow: (a) Increase in imports of high-discharge pumps and spare parts (foreign exchange cost estimate: US$0.1 million/year); (b) Improvement of local manufacture of hand pumps through external technical consultations, and assistance for work- shop equipment (foreign excharnge cost estimate: US$0.3 million); (c) Increase the quantity and standardize the type of Government drilling equipment (foreign exchange cost estimate: US$0.9 mil- lion); and ANNEX 14 Page 19 (d) Increase the quantity and standardize the type of lorries and other transport vehicles (foreign exchange cost estimate: US$0.5 million). 87. Technical Shortcomings. In the areas of irrigation, rural water supply, and cattle watering, there is no comprehensive planning; nor is there a clear definition of medium- or long-term goals. 88. Groundwater data are scanty and difficult to retrieve. Exploratory activity, as in the case of the limestone aquifer, for example, has been almost completely neglected. Groundwater exploration to select the siting of boreholes is based on minimal local investigation. Information on potential groundwater resources is inadequate for planning their use or for their consideration as an alternative water source. 89. Run-off data are better, but broader in scale, and require critical analysis before use. Data collection and storage need improvement. Smaller- scale information on the upper catchment of tributaries is not available. The water potential of tributaries for medium- and small-scale irrigation, especially at the low-flow period, remains a guess. Low-flow study of river run-off has also been neglected the close relationship between surface and groundwater flow, and their possible conjunctive use, have not been considered by planners. 90. Technical and economic information on the use of groundwater for irrigation purposes at the medium- and small-scale levels is lacking. There is also insufficient data concerning the potential use of groundwater for large-scale irrigation, for instance, in the Copperbelt from the limestone aquifer (Mpongwe). 91. Technical Recommendations. Actions required to correct these shortcomings should include: (a) Establishment of a national plan for large-scale irrigation; (b) Technical inventory at provincial level of the rural water supply situation and of the needs for medium- and small-scale irrigation; this to be followed by the establishment of a medium- term rural water development program; (c) Pilot irrigation from the limestone aquifer; survey of the feasibility of borehole irrigation using this source in the Copperbelt and Central Provinces, with special attention to the Mpongwe area; ANNEX 14 Page 20 (d) Improvement of the run-off gauging stations network, with emphasis on the tributaries' upper catchments, and first priority given to the Kafue Basin. (About 50 additional stations would be required); (e) Establishment of a central water archive based on modern methods of data collection, processing and retrieval; and (f) Preparation of a map of the country's groundwater potential based on existing knowledge. 92. Finance. Capital funds allocated for water supply are scattered among various ministries. The total annual amount is sufficient when the constraints mentioned above are considered. However, yearly budget cuts introduce limitations. 93. Recurrent funds are insufficient. This situation affects the quality of operation and maintenance of water supply systems. 94. No budgetary funds have been allocated as yet for irrigation development. 95. Recommendations. Actions required to correct the financial limita- tions (in order of priority) include: (a) Increase of recurrent funds to improve operation and maintenance of existing water supplies; for this purpose, an additional K 400,000/year would be required (foreign exchange cost estimate: US$150,000/year); (b) Exemption of yearly budget cuts in the sector of water development; (c) Creation of a budget allocation for irrigation development; (d) External assistance for equipment and large-scale development projects; and (e) Allocation of all funds related to water supply directly to the province. 96. Organizational and Legislative. The Department of Water Affairs (DWA) should remain within MRD. It should not limit itself to water supply development, but should create an irrigation service confined to the water source and water conveyance to the irrigation works. 97. The ultimate constraint to water development within economic limits will be the limited amount of water available during the low-flow period. Judicious water use requires careful planning and allocation, con- servation, and management at basin level. Kafue Basin is the first example ANNEX 14 Page 21 in the country of the need for a river basin authority. DWA should there- fore be reorganized at central level. Since the provincial pattern is some- what similar to the basin distribution, (Kafue Basin, for example, includes mainly the Copperbelt and Central Provinces), this reorganization would not in- volve drastic changes. 98. Still another constraint is that irrigation affairs are poorly oraanized within MRD. Thus, if a major development policy comes into exis- tence in this sector soon, the Government lacks the necessary institutions and organization to cope with the new situation. 99. The Water Act of Zambia, moreover, has no provision for the control of groundwater withdrawal or for the international segments of the Zambezi, Luapula and Luangwa Rivers. 100. Recommendations. Action required to correct the organizational and legal constraints should include (in order of priority); (a) Creation of an Irrigation Coordinating Committee with responsibility for defining a national policy for irriga- tion development, formulating a policy on the pricing of water, etc. (see Appendix XX) (b) Strengthening of DWA in the irrigation areas of water supply and conveyance (c) Reorganization of DWA at the central level, according to a river basin approach to water development and management; (d) Reorganization and strengthening of the land-use services of MRD in the irrigation sector (see Appendix XXII, p.5 for project outline); and (e) Revision and modification of the Water Act with a view to making it a useful instrument for sound management of Zambian water resources. Development Pro osals Proposals for a National Water Strategy and Policy 101. Mobilization of the country's water resources should be intensified so as to make full use of this abundant natural resource. Maximum use should be made of run--off that is already regulated, subject to a sound allocation of such water according to quantitative and qualitative requirements and the most economical utilization for production. ANNEX 14 Page 22 102. Such an approach implies that the formulation of a water plan might best be accomplished at the regional or river basin level. In this connection. the Kafue River Basin deserves top priority, since projected water requirements are already conflicting with limited water resources as cur- rently regulated. 103. With regard to water use in the agricultural sector and rural areas, the water strategy should be conceived as follows: (a) Large-scale irrigation should be confined to the main rivers and lakes and to some important groundwater reservoirs; (b) Medium- and small-scale irrigation should benefit also from river tributaries and groundwater reservoirs (see Appendix V); and thereby have a widespread distribution over the country with emphasis on commercial farms and Rural Growth Areas; (c) Rural water supply should be developed throughout the country without any limitation from the water source standpoint, but should be concentrated in rural growth areas; groundwater, through hand-dug wells and boreholes, should be the most used source of water; and (d) Cattle watering points, using the same water sources -but some- times requiring small storage of surface water, should be developed. Irrigation Program Proposals 104. Large-scale irrigation could be implemented in four areas: the Kafue Flats, Munkumpu and Mpongwe, Kandu--iswebe, and the Chambeshi Flats, with a rate of implementation of 1,200-2,000 ha/year, after a two-year pilot development phase to be started mainly in the Kafue Flats and Munkumpu of 200 ha for irrigated wheat. Given existing and expected resources, it is unlikely that more than 15,000-20 000 ha could be under crop by 1986, excluding sugarcane, or 30,000-35,000 ha including this crop. At the end of the third NDP (1981), a target of 5,000-8,000 ha (or 17.000-20,000 ha including sugarcane) could be reached. 105. [edium-scale irrigation could be imaplemented both by existing com- mercial farmers (if they are encouraged by a more favorable pricing policy) and by the Government in peri-urban areas. Assuming an annual rate of im-- plementation of ten 50 ha/schemes, a development of about 3,000 ha could be achieved by the end of the third NDP (1981) ANNEX 14 Page 23 106. Small-scale irrigation could be established in the rural growth areas 1/ around villages and also in settlements, with a rough estimate of 50 to 100 villages representing a possible target of 1,000-2,000 ha. Small- scale irrigation should be integrated with the rural water supply development. 107. The proposed long-term irrigation development program for Zarabia suggests the following targets (in 1,000 ha): 1977-1981 1982-1986 Total Large-scale Irrigation/2 5-8 10-12 15-20 Medium-scale Irrigation 3 4 7 Small-scale Irrigation 1 1 2 Total 9-12 15-17 24-29 108. The cost (1974 prices 3/) of the proposed program, including water source, land preparation and irrigation works, is as follows (K million): 1977-1981 1982-1986 Total Large-scale Irrigation 8.5-13.6 17.0-20.4 25.5-34.0 Medium-scale Irrigation 3.6 4.8 3.4 Small-scale Irrigation 0.7 0.7 1.4 Total 12.8-17.9 22.5-25.9 35.3-43.8 It is expected that approximately 30,000 ha would be irrigated in 1981, and approximately 45,000 ha in 1986, including 15,000 ha of sugarcane, which is considered a special program. Rural Water Spply Proposals 109 During the next two NDP (1977-1986), the country's capacity for constructing rural water supplies is planned to reach a rate of 1.000/year. including about 700 hand-dug wells and 300 boreholes. In addition, some water supplies (5%) will be improved with standpipes or house connections, and some (10%) will be restored (deepened, etc.). 1/ See Appendix V. 2! Excluding the special sugarcane program of 15,000 ha. 3/ A price increase coefficient is assumed as follows: 1975: 1.16; 1976: 1.26; 1977: 1.40; 1978: 1.56; 1979: 1.79 1980: 1.95; 1981: 2.14 (Application of Bank's guidelines, January 1975). ANNEX 14 Page A4 110. The proposed long-term rural water supply development p ogram for Zambia is as follows (water supply units): 1977-81 1982-86 Th)tal Hand-dug wells 2,500 3,500 6,000 Boreholes 1,000 1.500 2,500 Improvements (standpipes, etc.) 250 250 500 Restoration (deepening, etc.) 500 500 1,000 Total 4,250 5,750 10,000 111. The cost (1974 prices) of the proposed program is as foLlows (K millions): 1977-81 1982-86 Tctal Hand-dug wells 2.5 3.5 E.0 Boreholes 3.0 4.5 - .5 Improvements (standpipes, etc.) 1.5 1.5 2.0 Resporation (deepening, etc.) 0.5 0.5 1.0 Total 7.5 10.0 1U.5 It is expected that adequate rural water supply (piped systems, valls or boreholes) will be serving approximately 75% of the rural population in 1981, and approximately 90-100% in 1986. Cattle Watering Proposals 112. While the private sector is investing heavily in the development of water points on ranches the Government still lacks both a polic: and a plan in this area. Since cattle behavior is only semi-nomadic, at thE most, cattle watering development programs could be conceived and carr:ed out at the provincial and district levels. In the absence of adequate (ata, however, it is difficult to make a logical proposal. An inventory by disirict and province of the existing watering points and their conditions sh uld first be taken. 11 i. In the case of the 'elulonga and Siloana Plains in the W( stern Province, a special watering point development program is requirmd. Such a program would require the drilling of about 120 to 150 boreholes at a total cost not exceeding K 0.5 million (see Appendix XXII for project 4utline). ANINEX 14 Page 25 114. Cost Summary of Long-term Agricultural Water Use Development Program (K million, 1974 prices) 1977-1981 1982-1986 Total Irrigation 12.8-17.9 22.5-25.9 35.3-43.3 Rural Water Supply 7.5 10.0 17.5 Cattle Watering 0.5 _- __ 0.5 Total 20.8-25.9 32.5--35.9 53.3--61.8 115. Medium- and small-scale irrigation, representing an estimated cost of K 5 million for 1977-81 and K 4 million for 1982-86, should be integrated with rural water supply and cattle watering into a rural water development program. 116. Therefore, the rural water development program to be conceived and carried out at the provincial and district levels would be as follows (K mil- lion 1/): 1977-81 1982-1986 Total Medium- and Small-Scale Irrigation 4.3 5.4 9.7 Rural Water Supply 7.5 10.0 17.5 Cattle Watering 0.5 _ 0.5 Total 12.3 15.4 27.7 117. Concurrently, a large-scale irrigation development program, in- cluding land preparation, and construction of the water source and of the irrigation works, should be conceived and carried out at the national level. External Assistance Proposals 118. In addition to internal action, external assistance is needed in order to implement and successfully carry out the program proposals outlined above. 119. The external assistance activities which follow are indicat ive, but not exhaustive of the kinds of programs that are needed. Suggested activities appear in a tentative order of priority and are presented in outline 'form only; further elaboration and formulation of these activities is needed at some future point. ANNEX 14 Page 26 120. Major Project. (Outlines of all Projects are presented in Appendix XXII): (a) Intensification of water development in rural areas for domestic supply, irrigation (medium- and small-scale), and cattle watering. Pre-project activities amount to about US$30,000. Subject to further evaluation and formulation, project activities are estimated at approximately US$1 mil- lion, with possible loans of roughly US$9 million. (b) Program of irrigated wheat and other crops on commercial farms and smallholdings, to be implemented during the third and fourth NDP (1977-1986) over 5,000-8,000 ha, after a pilot phase over 200 ha. The location is shown on Map IBRD 11545. Pre- development activities amount to about US$600,000. Subject to further evaluation and a feasibility study, project costs are estimated at approximately US$8 million. Possible loans are roughly estimated at US$5.5 million. (c) Borehole irrigation in the Copperbelt and Central Provinces to survey and demonstrate the irrigation potential of the limestone groundwater reservoir which could be exploited through public and private sector efforts. Pre-development activities amount to approximately US$1 million. (d) Study of irrigation potential in the Chambeshi River Valley to further ascertain the feasibility of large- and/or medium- scale irrigation. If possible, a first development phase will be implemented. Pre-development activities are estimated at about US$150,000. Subject to positive findings, the cost of a first development ph7ase would be about US$650,000. 121. Other Projects or Activities (e) Cattle watering program in the Western Province to construct about 150 boreholes in order to better use the grazing potential of the Mulonga and Siloana Plains. Pre-project activities cmount to about US$160,000. Project activities could be of the same order, possibly as a Government counter- part. (f) Establis7nment of a Kafue Basin water plan as a consequence of the conception of a strategy and policy of water manage- ment in the entire Basin. Project activities amount to about US$250,000. They could be preceded by the creation of a coordinating committee, which would become the water authority. An amount of about US$5,000 may be needed for this project. ANNEX 14 Page 27 (g) Pre-feasibility study on multi-purpose utilization of Iteshiteshi Dam-Reservoir on the Kafue River to prepare pre-feasibility reports on the multi-purpose use of the water regulated by the dam-reservoir and a feasibility study for a possible heightening of the dam. Project activities amount to about US$20,000. (h) Planning the Kafue Flats' development related to water for the optimum utilization of land and water resources for the development of irrigated agriculture, livestock, the conservation of wildlife, etc. Project costs amount to about US$1.2 million; pre-projects activities (project formulation) to approximately US$10,000. (i) Establishment of a central water resources archive based on modern methods of data collection, processing and retrieval. Activity cost amounts to about US$180,000. This project could be carried out in conjunction with the activity which follows. (j) Establishment of a map of the country's groundwater potential based on existing knowledge. Activity cost amounts to about US$60,000. (k) New analysis and mapping of water resources from LANDSAT imagery, and training of Zambians in preparation and interpretation of LANDSAT mosaics. Cost amounts to US$500,000. 122. Summary of External-Assistance Program (Details in Appendix XXII): ANNEX 14 Page 28 Reference Project or Activity Title Phasin,& 1/ External Inputs (US$ million) Major Projects a Intensification of water development PPA 0.03 in rural areas PA 1.0 L 3.8 b Program of irrigated wheat and other PPA 0.6 crops (Map IBRD 11545) PA 1.0 L 5.5 c Borehold irrigation in Copperbelt and PPA 0.1 Central Provinces (MAP IBRD 11545) PA 1.0 L 1.0 d Study of irrigation potential in PPA 0.2 Chambeshi River Valley PA 0.7 (Map IBRD 11545) L (?) 2.0 Other Projects or Activities e Cattle watering program in Western PPA 0.2 Province PA 0.2 Major Projects f Establishment of a Kafue Basin PPA 0.01 Water Plan PA 0.3 g Pre-feasibility study on multi- PPA p.m. purpose utilization of Itezhitezhi PA 0.02 Dam-Reservoir on the Kafue River h Planning the Kafue Flats development PPA 0.01 related to water PA 1.2 i & j Establishment of a central water PA 0.3 resource archive and of a map of the country's groundwater potential k Preparation and analysis of PA 0.5 LANDSAT mosaics and training of Zambians 1/ PPA = Pre-project Activities. PA = Project Activities. L = Loans(about 0.30-0.50 of the estimated program cost). ANNEX 14 Appendix I Page 1 ZAMBIA: WATER RESOURCES: POTENTIAL.USE AND DEVELOPMENT A LIST OF USEFUL DOCUMENTS (in chronological order) 1. Verboom, "Study of Chambeshi Flats," early 1960's. 2. "FAO-Multipurpose Survey of the Kafue River Basin:" General, Soil, Climatology and Hydrology, Ecology, Wildlife, Fishery, Livestock, FAO/SF: 35/ZAM, 7 Vol., (1968). 3. Karl Aubrecht, "Land Use in Luangwa," (1969). 4. Italconsult, "Multipurpose River Basin Surveys and Studies:" General, Hydrology, Hydrogeology, Soil, Agriculture and Live- stock, Market and Commodity Analysis, Electric Power, Irrigation Projects. 8 Vol., (Rome, December 1970). 5. Sir Alexander Gibb and Partners, "Copperbelt Water Resources Survey," (London, 1971). 6. Republic of Zambia, Ministry of Rural Development, Department of Water Affairs, "The Surface Water Resources of Zambia," (January 1971). 7. Republic of Zambia, Department of Meteorology, "Totals of Monthly and Annual Rainfall for Selected Stations in Zambia,' (March 1972). 8. G.A.N. Starmans, and M.S.E. Shalash, "Water Consumption for Irrigation in Zambia," Ministry of Rural Development, DWA, (May 1972). 9. Anglo-American Corporation Ltd., "Wheat Production in Zambia," (July 1974). 10. Tate and Lyle Technical Services, "Investigation of Production Prospects for Wheat in Heavy Clay Soils in the Kafue River Flats," (August 1974). 11. IBRD/559-ZA, "Water Supply and Sewerage Sector Study," (October 1974). ANNEX 14 Appendix I Page 1 ZAMBIA: ESTIMATED WATER RESOURCES 1. Water balanceL/ of Zambian territory Basins Area Water balance elements in kmn3 year x 1000 Precipit. Runoff Evapor. km 2 2 total flood 2/ baseflow (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) Zambezi 2/ 256 240 30 21.8 8.2 210 Kafue 155 160 11 9.4 1.6 149 Luangwa 145 134 16 15.0 1.0 118 Luapula 178 208 27 Y22.4 4.6 181 Tanganyika 16 18 6 5.4 0.6 12 750 760 90 74.0 16.0 670 V 2. Runoff coefficient and low flow Runoff regulated by underground Low flow discharge reservoirs, lakes. swamps (e in n3/5 c) Average Lowest Zambezi 0.27 375 250 Kafue 0.15 46 16 Luangwa o.o6 29 13 Luapula 0.17 226 55 Tanganyika 0.04 10 4 0.17 686 338 3. Stable river runoff in km3/year Regulated by: Underground reservoirs ............... 11 Lakes, swamps, flood plains. 5 Man-made reservoirs .27 / Total ......... 38 % of Runoff ......... 0.42 4. Water in storage in km3 a/ Underground reservoirs Lakes 9/ Kalahari sands .......... 50 Bangweulu .22 Limestone ............... 10 Wantipa. 4 Alluvial deposits ....... 6 Others. 4 Other (basement, Karoo) ... 18 30 84 Swamps Man-made reservoirs LO/ Total Bangweulu ........ 10 Kariba ........... 7.3 Mweru ........ 1.3 Itezhi Tezhi ..... 0.7 Wantipa ........ 1.6 Kawambwa .......... 1.lt Kafue flats ........ 4.7 Lukanga ........ 4.6 Busanga ........ 1.4 Others ........ 3 28.0 8.0 150 1/ average (1955-69), rounded figures; 2/ flood runoff; a/ Zambian part of the basin and its own water crop; j of which 6.0 from the Chambeshi before Bangweulu swamps catchment and 21.0 after the same (gain: 1 .5 in spite of evapotranspiration over the swamps); 5/ including deep percola- tion and groundwater flow into neighbouring countries (about 24 km3); 6M international waters; 2/ live storage; Kariba dam national apportionment: 17 + Kafue Gorge dam: 0.8 + Iteshiteshi dam; 4.2 (when completed); several hundreds small capacity dams: negligible; B/ minimal assumptions except for man-made reservoirs; 9/ Lakes Mweru and Tanganika not considered as international waters; 10/ dead storage. Source: Mission Estimates YEARLY RAINFALL PATTERN (July 1970 to June 1971)* 1970 Monthly Rainfall in Millimeters 1971 (Number of Days with Rainfall above 0,01 Inches) Total PROVINCE Year (Admin. Center) July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June mm WESTERN (Mongu) -- -- -- 46 143 145 250 204 80 54 38 -- 960 (2) (6) (17) (20) (22) (18) (9) (8) (1) (1) (1014) SOUTHERN (Livingstone) _- -_ -- 5 160 140 312 52 28 -- -- -- 697 (2) (2) (12) (14) (24) (13) (6) (3) (76) N.WESTERN (Solwezi) -- -- -- 83 314 238 294 253 129 94 __ -- 1,405 (2) (11) (21) (26) (23) (16) (15) (10) (124) COPPERBELT (Ndola) -- -- 4 38 295 360 362 263 100 23 3 -- 1,448 (2) (9) (19) (30) (27) (26) (14) (5) (1) (133) CENTRAL -- -- (Kabwe -- -- -- 14 180 170 281 153 24 10 -- __ 832 (4) (16) (14) (23) (14) (4) (2) (77) EASTERN (Chipata) 3 -- -- 36 170 365 415 400 36 52 8 __ 1,485 (1) (3) (14) (23) (21) (6) (9) (11) (2) (100) NORTHERN (Kasamna) 2 -- -- 35 189 242 123 198 294 93 4 -- 1,180 (2) (3) (16) (25) (23) (23) (18) (10) (1) (121) LUAPULA (Mansa) -- __ 15 44 232 316 262 400 151 41 -_ __ 1,461 (1) (5) (23) (25) (24) (22) (10) (6) ('116) NOTE: The Government Administrative Center indicated thus (Mongu) has been selected as the meteorological reporting X station representative of each Province. m(D *Close to average year (6% below), except for Ndola, Chipata, Mansa (above) Source: From Totals of Monthly and Annual Rainfall, 1970-71, Department of Meteorology, Lusaka X 4 ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY LONG TERM RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION, (1919-1970), Northern and Southern Regions 74.32 Inches 7 mm 62 - - 1560 60 1 1 510 58 - _1460 56 1410 54 - 1360 52 - 1310 50 Average FL 21260 48 II1210 46 Ln 31160 44 (1110 42 -1060 40 -1010 38 -960 36 - 910 34 - 860 32 - - 810 30 - Averag -760 28 -] 710 26 II560 24 -j __ _ _ __ _ _610 20 510 18 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~Drought Conditions -460 16 -410 19 20 22 24 26 28 1930 32 34 36 38 1940 42 44 46 48 1950 52 54 56 58 1960 62 64 66 68 1970 Rainfall year 1st July-.30th June next year ____________Kasama Lat 10013', S Long 31008', E Alt. 1230 m (Northern Region) ____________Kalomo Boma Lat. 16058', S Long. 26029', E Alt 1250 mn (Southern Region Location (see map IBR D-11509) Source Mission, from Totals of Monthly anid Anniual Rainfall for selected stations in Zambia, March 1972 VVorld Bank-9782 Annex 14 Appendix V Page 1 ZAMBIA: GROUNDWATER OCCURRWENCE AND DISCHARGE DATA Province Area Water-bearing formation Yield (lls) per bore- hole 6"1 diam.* range max. Livingstone basalts; overlaid sometimes district by sand-filled valleys 2.5 - 3 5 Kalomo-Choma granites; max. weathered depth: 37m 1 - 1.2 1.5 quartz veins, shear zones 2.5 - 3.8 5.0 Southern Mazabuka district Upper Katanga; limestone, dolomite 1.3 - 3.8 12.5 argillites poor 0.5 Lower Katanga; phyllites 0.4 - 0.5 0.7 lower schists 0.5 - 0.8 1.3 Gwembe Valley sandstones 1.5 shales and mudstones poor 0.6 limestones, dolomite 1.5 - 6 50 Central phyllites 0.4 - 0.5 0.7 schists 1.0 - 2.5 quartzite * poor limestone, dolomite 2. - 10 75 Copperbelt basement schists 0.4 - 0.5 0.7 basement granites 0.7 - 0.9 1,2 basement schists 0.4 - 0.5 0.7 Northern granite -gneiss 0.5 - 1,2 1.5 quartzite poor Hpika Plateau sandstone 1.7 - 2.1 2.5 Kawambwa Plateau sandstone 1.5 - 2.5 3 Luapula Luapula Valley granite, gneiss 0.5 - 1.2 1.5 Kashiba sandstone, shales poor Mansa granite, shallow weathered 0.3 - 0.5 1.0 Western Most of Province Kalahari sandstone 1.5 -12.5 25 eastern part Karoo formation, basement 0.5 - 1.5 3 Most of province Katanga formation limestone 1.5 - 5 10 North shales poor Western Part of province Kalahari sandstone 1.5 -12.5 25 Luangwa Valley alluvial deposits 1 -10 15 Eastern Most of province basement complex 0.5 - 2 5 *Inadequate pumping tests; unknown drawdown. Source: Mission Estimates ANITX 14 Appendix V Page 2 ESTIM&TE OF MINE PUMPING FROM THE LXTONE RISERVOIR IN COPPERBELT PROVINCE (1970) Location m3/s m3/day Mm3/year EuNak Muf.Tlira 0,925 80,000 29.2 30.000 m3/day returned to Kafue River Chibuluma 0,520 45,000 16.4 23.000 m3/day returned to Mweru- beshi River Luanshya 0,635 55,000 20,1 Chingola 0,920 80,000 29,2 Kankola 2,900 250,000 91,3 200.000 m3/day returned to river 5,900 510,000 186.2 GROUNDWATER ABSTRACTION FORECAST FROM SAME LOCATIONS (INCLUDING 30 WASTE 1980 : 835,000 m3/day (9.6 m3/s ; 302.4 Mm3/year) 1990 : 1,010,000 m3/day (11.7m3/s ; 368.5 mm3/year) 2000 : 1,160,000 m3/day (13.5 m3/s ; 425.3 Mm3/year) ESTIMATED NATURAL RECHARGE OF THE LIMESTONE RESERVOIR: 200 to 220 mm/year Source: Sir Alexander Gibb Report, 1971. GROUNDWATER ABSTRACTION FROM LIMESTONE RESERVOIR AROUND LUSAKA (1961-65): 8,8 Mm3/year Source: Italconsult Report, Hydrogeology Vol., December 1970. XNNEX 14 Appendix VI Page I ZAMBIA: GROUNDWATER EXTRACTION THROWJGH BOREHOLES A - Public and Private Sectors* 1. Usual borehole characteristics: diam: 6"; average depth: 30 - 100 m. max. depth: 105 - 120 m. 2. Discharge (uls) (unknown drawdown) average maximum limestone, dolomite (Katanga) 3.8 - 7.6 75 -- 150 Kalahari sands (tertiary) 3.8 - 5.1 12.5 - 25 schists with quartzites, limestone (Katanga) 1.3 - 3.8 9 - 15 sandstones with shales, mudstone (Karoo) o.6 - 3.2 4.5 - 6 schists and micaschists, ) quartzites, granites, gneisses,) schists and granites (basement)) ).6 - 2.5 4.5 - 8 3. Proportion of productive (successful) boreholes: (Over 0.1 l/s) granites : 63% Perfornance in 1970 schists, quartzites, sandstone, limestone s 70 - 73% Productive : 1538 schists with granite, with lime- stone and basalts : 86 - 94% Dry 573 Kalahari sands 100% Dry 573 2091 Average (1970) : 70% 4. Distribution of boreholes: Central Province : 1120 limestone, dolomite 550 Southern n 600 granite : 480 Eastern n : 120 schists : 420 Northwestern n 55 schists with quartzites : 140 Western b : 15 sandstone : 130 Copperbelt n : 120 quartzites : 110 Northern " : 50 schists with limestone : 90 Luapula n : 11 Kalahari sands : 15 5. Drilling performance: (for an average depth of 30 - 40 m/borehole) 18 boreholes/year/percussion rig in basement 22 boreholes/year/percussion rig in limestone 30 boreholes/year/percussion rig in Kalahari sands ANN.gAX 14 .P) (,, VI ? B - Public Sector Only 6. Historical datas Year Total Boreholes Productive Q5y Efficiency 1968 108 84 24 77% 1969 167 145 42 74% 1970 1/ 183 137 46 69% 1971 - 303 243 60 80% 1972 171 132 39 77% 1973 172 126 46 73% 7. Distribution by constructor (1973): No. of Rigs DWA 26 22 4 85% 7 USSR team 69 57 12 83% 5 Waterwells Ltd. 35 22 13 63% 24 Sidco Ltd. (Yugo- slavia) 20 l1 9 55% 2 Geomin Ltd. (Romania) 15 8 7 53% 2 Saaimon 7 6 1 86% 3 172 126 46 73% 43 8. Distribution by Province Y - lj73t Copperbelt 13 8 5 62% Central 17 14 3 b2% Eastern 69 57 12 83% Southern 35 17 1b 4b% Northern 5 .5 2 60p Luapula 21 19 2 9 V/ North Western 12 6 A 67% 172 126 46 73%, 9. Drilling Cost by Province 31 - 1973s Total per borehole per metre Copperbelt 26,600 2,046 33,1 Central 27,340 1,608 25,6 Eastern 102,340 1,483 42,1 Southern 59,560 1,702 24,b Northern 13,490 2,696 68,4 Luapula 43,050 2,050 i3,7 North Western 34,600 2,900 47,') 307, 200 average cost: 1,7L6 i4,6 *Items 1 to 4s statistical analysis (1970) out of 2091 boreholes 1/ end of the first NDP. 5/ including 39 percussion rigs; but not taking into account another 3 percussion rigs of Tobacco Board of Zambia 3/ Western Province is not included as a jet technique is being used in the province - instead of usual drilling. Source: Items 1-4 Italconsult Report. Items 5-9 Compiled by Mission from various sources. ANNEX 14 Appendix VI! Page 1 ZAMBIA: THEORITICAL WATER LOSSES 1. Direct evaporation from water surface (see Map IBRD 11546). Water surface area (km ) evaporation mm/year km3/year Kariba I-ake 5 600 2 291 12.8 Tanganyika Lake 2 100 1 869 4.3 Bangweulu Lake 2 260 1 862 4.2 Mweru Lake 2 700 2 045 5.5 Wantipa Lake 390 1 869 0.7 Other lakes 1 000 1 900 1.9 Bangweulu Swamp 7 770 1 862 14.5 Mweru Swamp 965 2 045 2.0 Wantipa Swamp 1 160 1 869 2,2 Kawambwa Swamp 975 1 869 1,8 Lukanga Swamp 3 470 2 037 7.0 Busanga Swamp 1 100 1 486 1.6 Other swamps 1 000 1 900 1.9 Barotse Flood Plain 16 200 1/ 2 306 18.7 Kafue Flats 3 860 1/2 245 4.3 Chambeshi Flats 1 750 1/ 1 862 1.6 Other ilood plains 1 OOC 1 1 900 1.0 53 3tO 86.o (1) temporaiy flood: 6 months 2. Losses per basin (km3) Basin area (km 2 direct natural deep total Bai aevaporation evapotranspiration percolation Zambezi 360 700 / 33 270 14 317 Kafue 151 000 14 130 3 147 Luangwa 143 800 1 120 2 123 Luapula 99 500 2/ 38 40 83 755 000 86 560 24 3/ 670 1/ including- the Angola portion 2/ including Chambeshi and Tanganyika Basins 3/ including groundwater flow into neighbouring countries. Source: Mission Estimates ANN ;!;AT 1 4 _Appe>nd,-_:L 27 Page 1 ZAMBIA: HYDROPOWER CAPACITY AND PRODUCTION, 1973 Generating statiQns (at 30th June 1973) Statioins1/ Installed capacity (MW) Units generated in 1972/73 (kwh 000) Kafue Gorge 4 x 150 600 2,713,567. Victoria FPalls A (2 x 1) + (2 x 3) 8 ) ti B 6 x lo 60) 583,285 If It C 4 x 10 40) Luslwazi 2 x 3 6 10,218 Musonda Falls 3 x 1 : 3 9,434 Chisimba Falls (2 x 1.2) + 4 X 0,3) : 3.6 7,721 Lunzua .River 4 x 0.25 1 14,575 Mulungushi (1 x 6.4) + (2 X 6) 18.4 83,360 Lunsembwa (Yita Hills)(1 x 6) + (2 x 5) 16 72,320 756 3,484,480 2/ Supply of electricity (million kwh) Generation in Zambia 3,841 Import to Zambia 607 4,448 Gross consumption in ZambLia: 4,990 1/ see map 4 2/ Hydropower proportion of electricity generated in Zambia : 91% Source: Zambia Electricity Supply Corporation (ZESCO) ANNEX 14 ppendix 1X Page 1 ZAMBIA: DOMESTIC WATER SUPPLY, 1973 Distribution and water service Population served with Water use piped water total (Mm 3/y) per capita(m /day) Urban 1 208 000 (30%) 906 000 (75%) 134 - 234 0,4 - 0,7 Rural 2 852 000 (70%/0) 285 000 (10%) 42 - 73 0,4 - 0,7 4 060 000 (100%) 1 191 000 (30%) 176 - 307 Urban water service - with central water supply (60% by house connections, 40% by standpipes) Cities (3) Municipalities (5) Townships (ll) Lusaka Chingola Choma Kasama Ndola Kabwe Kalomo Mbala Kitwe Livingstone Mazabuka Mansa Luanshya Monze Chipata Mufulira Pemba Kafue Mongu Rural water service Type Dwellings Ppulation t Water use 3 Tio-oo 1 s)(1000's,) tal(Nn3/y) per capita (m /-7aYT Private taps 17 70 (2.5%) 5 0,2 Shared taps 56 229 (8%) 8,3 0,1 Wells or boreholes 300 1,240 (43.5%) 22,7 0,05 River or stream 270 1,113 (39%) 4,2 0bOl Other 48 200 (7%) 0"8 0,01 691 2,852 (100%) 41,0 Forecast 1986 Water use total per capita Population Served (Mh3/y) (m3/day) Urban 3,500 000 with piped water 3,200,000(90%) 467 0,4 rural 3,400 000 to " 880,000) 128 0G4 rural _ " wells or boreholesl,700,000) (75;) 31 0,05 6,900,000 5,780,000(83%) 626 Source: "Water Supply and Sewerage Sector Study," IBRD Report No. 559-ZA, Oct., 197h, and Mission Estimates. ANNEX 14 Appendix X Page 1 ZAMBIA: WATER SUPPLY RESPONSIBILITIES BY FUNCTIONS. 1973 Preinvestment Engineer- Construction Operation Place or Category and Feasibil- ing Finance and ity Studies Design Super- Actual Maintenance vision Work Cities (3) City & City & MLGH & City City & City Consults. Consults. City Contract Municipalities (5) Mun. & Mun. & MLGH,GG Mun. Mun. & Mun. Consults. Consults. & City Contract Township Councils Consults. Consults. MLGH & TC & TC & TC, BB & DWA & DWA TC DWA Contract & DWA Rural Councils WA WA DWA DWA WA & WA & BB Contract Villages DWA DWA DWA DWA DWA & Villages, Contract DWA & BB Institutions BB & DWA BB Resp. BB Contract Agency or Agency DWA Abbreviations: MIGH - Ministry of Local Government and Housing (loan) GG - Government Grant Mun. - Municipality DWA - Department of Water Affairs (Ministry of Rural Development) TC - Town Council BB - Buildings Branch (Ministry of Power, Transport and Works) Source: DWA and BB from IBRD Report No. 559-ZA, "Water Supply and Sewerage Sector Study.,, ANNEX 14 Appendix XI Page 1 ZAMBIA ORGANIZATION OF THE DEPARTMONT OF WATER AFFAIRS 1973 (Director) Data and Planning Water Supply (Chief dater Engineer) (Chief -Water Engineer) iydrologacpl Branch Hydrogeological Branch Drilling Section Construction and 'rIncipal. Hydrologist) (Senior Hydrogeologist) (Senior Water Maintenance Engineer) (Senior rlater Engineer) Water Services Staff in Provinces Distribution of Higher Grade Staff (selected from staff-list 1973) Central Provinces Districts Superscale 9 1 Professional 5 6 - Admnin./exec./ techn. 18 19 8 AN.NEX 14 Apper.dix XII Page 1 ZAMBIA TYPICAL ORGANIZATION )F THq, PROVINCTAL dATtR S&EiRVICH, WITHI1'N THE DEPARTMENIT C'F WATER AFFAIRCtS 197 . PROVIDICIAL P;OVINC,IAL AGRICULTURAL --ATER ENGINEER ENGIN-ER Officer _- . I--- St,ores ~ 7 Cle ical .iater Engineer Senior Engi neerJng (Town5hip 'Water Supply) Assistant (Rural 4ater Siupply) Senior Meehanlical Water Supply 2ngineeri-ig Assistant Superintendent Super-intender;t (In charge of District) (Me.chanical and (Constructi-on, Treat- C1 ectrical Miaintenance) ment snd Di st.ribution) Plumbers, Buil-ders ANNEX 14 Appendix XIII Page 1 ZAMBIA: 1973 BUDGET FOR WATER SUPPLY (in K.005) Townships Rural Total A. Allocated To DWA 1. Recurrent Expenditures Authorized Provision 300 400 700 Actual Expenditure 375 36 7 9 Balance 75) 36 2. Capital Authorized Provision 2,000 400 2,L00 Actual Expenditure 296 18 Balance 445 1 o5 3. Recurrent Expenditures for SNDP 1972 300 360 660 1973 300 400 700 1974 300 440 740 1975 (1) requested 400 500 900 1976 (1) requested 500 500 1,000 1,800 2,200 4,ooo Authorized Actual Province Provision Expenditure Balance B. Allocated to the Provinces (capital only) Copperbelt 100 100 Central 105 89 16 Northern 100 25 75 Western 80 76 4 Eastern 300 288 12 Luapula 100 99 1 North-Western 120 121 (l) Southern 115 113 2 Total 1,02 911 lO9 Source: 1973 Zambia Budget AIJNNX 14 A;pmn 97 XIV Pus 1 ZAMBIA: EnSTING IRRIGATION SCH3MES BY PROVINCE (1974) Nap 1/ Province District schee Area Crop Refermo.- - (ha) a Southern awmbe Buleya lulla 100 Fruit, vegetables b @ Siatwinda 80 " o n aishop of Monse 40 Bansaas, d Nasabuka Zambia Sugar Cy. 6,500 Sugar cane o National Irriga- tion Researoh Station (NIRS) 30 Wheat, various f Central XEatus Chiava 20 Bananas g Chilanga Lie pe far 30 Wheat h Chisiaba Grobler farm&/1 130 Onions, iaise Feira Feira pilot irrigation 20 Vegetables j Central Dean farm 30 Citrus, vegetables k Copperbelt Mdola rural Chapula 60 Vegetables 1 n Ipafu 40 a " Xafubu 60 D North Western bIiniliuma Iuinilua 50 Pineapple, vegetables p Zmbesi raining * ttl_met 30 Vegetables q Western IOngoS Yabo po 2 Rice r Pilot irrigation 5 Vegetables s Eastern Lundasi Lundaui sohme 6 t Chadaza Rukisys 4 u Chipata Uak-gWa 4 v Petauke Los owe 2 w Northern Kaama Ngoli 80 Coffee x Xporokoso Xapatu 40 Fruit, vegetables y Xneama Kasama schie 2 Vegetables z Xbala Xbala " 2 ab Chineali Chineali n 20 Rice ac Ipilk Ualaahi 4 Citrus ad Luapula Iwense ,msnusshi 80 Basanae ae KaXabwa Nu3hota 20 Vegetables af Nansa Kawambwa scheme 240 Tea ag Research station 2 Rice trials Grand total : 7,693 1/ Shown on Map IBRD 115h8. 2/ These are indicative only. There are over 30 commercial farms with over 20 ha under irrigation mainly for fruit, vegetables, sugar and wheat. Source: Mission Estimates. ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 1 ZAMBIA: POTENTIAL LARGE-SCALE IRRIGATION DEVELOPMENT BY RIVER BASIN (Letters (aa)-(zz) refer to location shown on Map IBRD 11545) Zambezi Basin (aa) Chavuma - Palata: an area of 1,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of the river; soils are sandy loam with sandy clay loam sub-soil. Limestone is available in the vicinity to amend the soil, land preparation would be required to eliminate the 2-4 ant-hills/ha; the water source would be from the river which has a discharge of 43 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares with the water requirement of 10 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 1.2 m3/s. A water canal of 0.8-2 km would be needed. (bb) Kabompo: an area of 1,000-2,000 ha is irrigable on the right bank of the river; soils are sandy loam; cost of land preparation would be on the low side. The water source would be from the river which has a discharge of 36 m3/s at the lowest flow. This compares with the water requirement of 20 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 2.5 m3/s. (cc) Barotse Flood Plain: an area of about 20,000 ha is irrigable of the river terraces of both banks; soils are sandy to sandy clay loam; cost of land preparation would be on the low side. The water source would be the river flood (Jan. - April), which keeps the soils wet until May. Only three months of supplementary irrigation is, therefore, required from the river or the natural channels. Medium-scale irrigation is feasible for hay (ensilage) and also for rice, with good prospects for smallholders or farmers, considering that four years of research have already been conducted in this area. Outside the Flood Plain, and mainly west of the river, small patches of sandy clay loam soils around the dambos, totaling up to 1,000 ha, could be put under crop. The water source would be the natural outcropping groundwater with l1ttle or no irrigation. These areas are suitable for rice during%the rainy season, and wheat during the dry season, the latter crop with a 1,200 kg/ha production requiring only f6rtilizers and manpower and no irrigation. They are suitable for a devel,'opment pattern of two-three ha/unit. (dd) Sinamalima: anl area of 2,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of Kariba Lake on excellent soil and without any foreseeable drainage problem. An additional 1,000 ha area of saline soil, subjectlto reclamation, is available for rice production. Little or no land preparation would be required as topography and slope are adequate. ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 2 The water source would be from Kariba Lake, without any limitation; good sites exist for a pumping station, a water canal of 3 km would be needed. The water requirement for irrigation would be 20 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 2 m3/s. The optimum crop products could be rice and wheat. (ee) Chiawa: an area of 3,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of the river in scattered patches of fairly good soils (class 2); little or no land preparation would be required. The water source could be from the Kafue River and/or the Zambezi River; the former is already regulated by Gorge Dam, and in 1978 will be regulated by the Itezhi Dam' the latter is regulated by Kariba Lake. The lowest discharge of the Kafue is 40 m3/s (increasing to 180 m3/s in 1978). the lowest discharge of the Zambezi is 1 000 m3/s. This compares with the water requirement of 30 Mm3/year, with a peak demand of 3 m3/s. A water canal of 3 km would be needed from the Zambezi. Kafue Basin 1. Main River (ff) Mpongwe: an area of about 10,000 ha is irrigable far away from the left bank of the river; soils are excellent to good (class C1 and S1, and C2 and S2). Because of good slope and topography, with only two ant- hills/ha, land preparation would be kept minimal. The water source would be boreholes into the groundwater limestone reservoir, with possible discharge of 10-40 1/s per borehole; the reservoir groundwater potential is unknown but represents the major part of the Kafue low-flow the water requirement for irrigation would be 60 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 5 m3/s, implementation of irrigation in this area would produce technical and social problems. (gg) Munkumpu: an area of 17,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of the river. The area is limited by the water availability at lowest flow, but not bv the sandy loam soils which are excellent to good (class C and C2); minimal land preparation would be required because of good slope and topography with only two ant-hills/ha. The water source would be from the river, which has a discharge of 14.4 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares with the water requirement of 135 Nm3/year with a peak demand of 10 m3/s; other possible water sources are a river tributary with a 0.4 m3/s discharge, and groundwater if the potential and well yield were better known. A first phase of 4,600 ha (2,300 wheat, 300 vegetables, etc.), with a water requirement of 37 m3/s, is under a feasibility study. Implementation of irrigation in this area may produce social, as well as certain technical problems, to be solved. ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 3 (hh) Kandu-Mswebe: an area of about 10,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of the river from the western ridge of Lukanga Swamp to the west and north of the Great Concession. The soils are excellent, the best in the country semi-detailed surveys, which show that mixed farming is feasible, have been completed. The water source could be the Lukanga Swamp, via a multi-km-long canal; but other water sources have to be investigated. The water requirement for irrigation of this area would be 80 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 7 m3/s. At 160 km west of the Lukanga Swamp lies the Mutoya Flood Plain with heavy clay soils (40,000 ha); the area is limited by the water available at lowest flow of the Kafue River. (ii) Kafue Flats: an area of only 15,000 ha is irrigable on both banks of the river due to limited water availability. Two different types of soils are present in the area: a) the heavy clay soils (725,000 ha) could be reclaimed and irrigated, given water availability, high inputs and high-level management. During a long period of experimentation on a 300 ha pilot polder, wheat, cotton, soya and rice were grown success- fully (1957-1964). Records of experimental yields (kg/ha) were: wheat: 4,575; soya: 2,000; rice: 3,200 (Tate and Lyle Report, 1974). The water source would be from the river, which recorded the lowest discharge of 15 m3/s (already committed at 67%), the water requirement for irrigation on this type of soil would be 6 Mm3/year/1,000 ha with a peak demand of 0.9 m3/s. Drainage requires serious consideration. b) The red soil fringe or flat marins (64,000 ha) are very good soils (class 1 and 2), located around the heavy clay soils; some drainage would still be needed; a total area of 35,000 ha has been identified by FAO in 1968. The water source would be from the river, or even better, from the tributaries around the flats. The water requirement for the irrigation of the identified area would be about 350 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 30 m3/s. 2. Tributaries around the Kafue Flats All the soils to be irrigated by the tributaries are within the red-soil fringe described under (ii) above. The following selection was made from the identified 35,000 ha: (jj) Mwembeshi-Keembe: an area of about 10,000 ha is irrigable on both banks of the tributary. The slightly clay soils (class 1 and 2) have no limitations beyond those required by good Boil management. The water source would be from both Mwembeshi and Keembe Rivers which have a total discharge of 0.6 m3/s at the low-flow period. The water requirement for irrigation is estimated at 80 Mm3 with a peak dedmand ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 4 of 8.5 m3/s. To this end, two dam-reservoirs (capacity: 200 Mm3) are required for a total capital cost of i 4,360,000 1/ (1968 prices), or a cost/ha of h 460. (kk) Nanaoma: an area of 6,000 ha is irrigable on the right bank of the tributary. Soils are class 1 and 2; a detailed survey remains to be made. The water source would be from the river. The irrigation water requirement would be about 50 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 5 m3/s. There is a need for a dam-reservoir (capacity: 100 Mm3) for a total capital cost of b 2,400,000 1/ (1968 prices), or a cost/ha of i 410. (11) Nansenga an area of 6,000 ha is irrigable on the right bank of the tributary. Soils are good but their wetness deserves consideration. A detailed soil survey remains to be done. The water source would be from the river. The irrigation water requirement would be about 50 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 5 m3/s. There is a need for a dam-reservoir (capacity : 230 Mm3) for a total capital cost of L 2,700,000 (1968 prices), or a cost/ha of i 425. 1/ (mm) Magoye-Chalimbana: an area of 500 ha is irrigable from the lake as the source of water. A detailed soil and feasibility study remains to be done. An additional area of 1,000 ha is also irrigable from the Magoye Tributary. subject to a d_rsvion Ma oye River to meet the irrigation water requirement of 12 Mm3/year, with a peak demand of 1.3 m3/s. Luangwa Basin (nn) Kansangazi an area of 1,000 ha is irrigable in the densely populated Lupanda Valley. The detailed soil survey remains to be done; the water source would be from Kasangazi River, subject to a dam-reservoir (with a dam site still to be studied) in order to meet the irrigation water requirement estimated to be 10 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 1 m3/s. (pp) Kakumbi. an area of 3,000 ha is irrigable on the left bank of the main river. The soils are fairly good with adequate slope and topography requiring little land preparation. The water source would be from the river which has a discharge of 13 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares with the water requirement of 30 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 3 m3/s. A water canal of 0.6 km would be needed. A research station has been established. Luapula Basin 1. Chambeshi Catchment (qq) Mbala (west of): an area of 1.000 ha is irrigable. Soils are good but wet in some places; a detailed soil survey remains to be done. 1/ Pound Sterling. ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 5 The water source would be from the Mululwe River which has a discharge of 2 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares to the irrigation water requirement of 3 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 0.3 m3/s. (rr) Nondo-Ngoli: Two different schemes of 250 ha each of very good soils are irrigable. The water source would be from a small tributary which has very poor discharge at the low-flow period. As the irrigation water requirement would be about 2 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 0.3 m3/s, water availability would be a limitation. (ss) Mulema: an area of 1,000 ha is irrigable on soils suitable for rice cultivation; a 20-ha plot has been experimented on. There is a need for a feasibility study. The water source would be from the river which has a discharge of 3.4 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares to the irri ration water requirement of 10 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 0.8 m /s. (tt) Chambeshi Flats: an area of only 5,000 ha is irrigable due to limited water availability at lowest flow. Soils have generally a low fertility (pH: 4) in the flats, with a great potential for grazing and livestock. Some patches are potentially good soils. Irrigated agriculture could be coffee and pineapple. Agriculture should start with small schemes, and checks should be made to see if larger schemes could be considered if amended by lime. The water source would be from the river which has a discharge of 4.6 m3/s at the low-flow period. The other water sources would be the tributaries. but water availability could be a limitation if more than 5,000 ha were to be irrigated. Further study is required in this field. The irrigation water requirement would be about 30 tm3/year with a pealk demand of 3 m3/s. The major problems to be faced are soil fertility and water availability for large-scale irrigation. (uu) M!tika area a total area of 5,000 ha scattered north and south of town in a few patches of good red soils are irrigable but require a detailed soil survey. The water source would be from small tributaries. As the irrigation water requirement could be about 30 Mm3/year with a pIeak demand of 3 m3/s, water availability is a limitation. However, on the Mufubushi Tributary, the water potential is sufficient to meet the irrigation requirements over 500 ha. This area deserves first priority; more investigation may prove larger land and water potential. 2. Bangweulu Catchment (vv) Nsombo: an area of about 12,000 ha is irrigable north of Lake Bangweulu. Soils are sandy loam with sandy clay loam sub-soil on low pH. Land preparation would be kept minimal due to adequate slop)e with ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 6 only two ant-hills/ha. The water source would be from the lake without anN limitation. The irrigation water requirements would be about 85 Mm /year with a peak demand of 8 m3/s. A water canal of 3 km would be needed. An irrigation research station has been established. (ww) Samfya: an area of 3,000 ha is irrigable west of Lake Bangweulu. Soils are sandy loam with low pH (fertility problem). The water source would be from the lake without any limitation; the irrigation water requirement would be 20 Mm3/year with a peak demand of 2 m3/s. A major problem to be faced is soil fertility. 3. Luapula Catchment (xx) Matanda: an area of 1,000 ha is irrigable on the right bank of the river. Soils present a problem of fertility due to low pH. The water source would be from the river, which has a discharge of 55 m3/s at the low-flow period. This compares with the irrigation water requirement of 6 Itm3/vear with a reak demand of 0.7 m3/s. (yy) Kawama-Kafubu: an area of 3,000 ha is irrigable on the right bank of the river and around the swamps; it is a most promising area with deep red soils, but with a problem of fertility in some patches. The water source would be from the river, lagoons, and tributaries without any limitation on the irrigation. Water requirement would be only 20 Mi3/year with a peak demand of 2 m3/s. (zz) Kawambwa: an area of 1,000 ha scattered in patches is irrigable. The good quality of soils makes it a very promising area for crops including tea. The water source would be from small tributaries. Since the irrigation water requirement would be 6 Mm3/year, with a peak demand of 0.7 m3/s, water could be a constraint. ANNEX 14 Appendix XV Page 7 ZAMBIA POTENTIAL SUMMARY Map IBRD 11544 Basin Catchment Reference Scheme Area(ha) Water available insufficient Zambezi aa Chavuma 1,000 x bb Kabompo 2,000 x cc Barotse Plain 20,000 x dd Sinamalima 2,000 x ee Chiawa 3,000 x Kafue main river ff Mpongwe 10,000 x gg MnkLimpu 17,000 x 2/ hh Kaindu-Mswabe 10,000 x ii Kafue Flats 15,000 x 2/ tributaries flats jj Mwembeshi 10,000 x kk Nangoma 6,o00 x 11 Nansenga 6,000 x mm Magoye 1,500 x Luangwa tributary nn Kasangazi 1,000 x main river pp Kakumbi 3,000 x Luapula Chambeshi qq Mbala(W. of) 1,000 x rr Nondo-Ngoli 500- x ss Mulema 1,000 x tt Chambeshi Flats 5,000 x 2/ uu Mpika area 5,000 x Bangweulu vv Nsombo 12,000 x ww Samfya 3,000 x Luapulu xx Matanda 1,000 x yy Kawama-Kafubu 3,000 x zz Kawambwa 1,000 x 14o,ooo water available 110,000 ha 1/ water insufficient - 30,000 ha 140.,00 ha 1/ water could be made available with dam-reservoirs at reasonable cost. 2/ area limited by the water availability at lowest flow. Source: Mission Estimates ANNEX 14 Kppendlx XVI Page 1 CAPITAL COST AND TECHNICAL ASPECTS OF LARGE-SCALE IRRIGATION SCHEMES (1970 prices/I) Six proposed irrigation schemes totaling 17,000 ha have been studied in 1970: Ka.fue Flats (Nega Nega), Lake Kariba (Buleya), Luangwa (Kakumbi), Chambeshi, Bangweulu and Luapula. The last three are in the north while the first three schemes are in the south. The scheme areas vary between 2,000 and 4,000 ha. This appendix is a summary of the technical aspects, mainly pumpon run-of-river with gravity irrigation,and of the capital cost per ha (average) which is more expensive in the Northern region. 1. Source of water : pumping or gravity diversion on run-of-water pumping more economic 2. Irrigation system : gravity or sprinkler; gravity more economic 3. Typical irrigation : area : 1,150 x 550 m = 63.25 ha = 56. 28 ha net Unit - contains 14 irrigation fields of net area: 4 ha/unit including drainage system, canals and roads 4. Layout : minimum land leveling (1,000 m3/ha; extremes 850 - 1,400); water conveyance from source to district canals through asbestos-cement pipelines 5. Water supply : peak demand : 0.6 - 0.7 1/s per hectare for 10 hrs/day with a night storage; surface system system efficiency : 0.5 6. Implementation : by successive stages, with a first stage as pilot scheme 7. Capital investment : (K per ha, rounded figures), gravity irrigation Cost average extremes a : land and water development 400 340 - 500 (1, 4, 5 above) b : irrigation works 600 500 - 785 (2, 3 above) c : a + b 1,000 840 - 1,285 d : a + b + contingencies + 1,200 1,000 - 1,460 design costs e : d + buildings + centralized 1,580 1,530 - 1,650 equipment + farm machinery Cost of c: 63% of total cost Recurrent expenses : K 220 per ha per year Cost of applied water : 0.022 K/m3 8. Geographical distribution of capital cost Northern schemes Southern schemes averag extremes average extremes a 450 433 - 503 340 336 - 347 b 650 536 - 784 565 497 - 623 c 1,100 1,0h0 - 1,220 906 840 - 970 d 1,310 1,242 - 1,458 1,090 1,007 - 1,163 e - - - 1,580 1,532 - 1,650 1974 prices should take into account a price increase of 64% from 1970 prices. Source: Italconsult, (December, 1970) ANNEX 14 Appendix XVII Page I COMKERCIAL FARM MEDIUM SCALE IRRIGATION (Boreholes Irrigation) This appendix, related to borehole irrigation, is the first of two examples given (see also Appendix XVIII) of a medium-scale irrigation scheme. It is one of the rare cases in Zambia of irrigation from groundwater. Location : Chisamba, 50 km north of Lusaka, on line of rail; a commercial farm of 1,600 ha, of which 160 ha is under irrigation. Cropping pattern : onions : 80 ha; alfalfa : 10 ha; maize : 0 ha; others: 30 ha; (including fallow). Water source : initially from a small dam-reservoir on a tributary (1944) to irrigate some 10 to 20 ha; from 1964, boreholes drilled into the alluvial deposits aquifer and the limestone aquifer. Boreholes : depth : 30 to 60 m; characteristics water level : 5 to 7 m from ground level; diameter : 6" discharge : 7 to 50 l/s per borehole; drawdown : few metres; average cost : K 1,500/unit, plus pump : K 1,500/unit;-!/ number : 15 drilled in 10 years. The last 7 are kept as stand-by in view of cost increase of drilling; capital investment cost : K 45,000, of which K.23,000 is necessary for present irrigation of 160 ha.-/ Irrigation system: electric pumps in boreholes; 2 reservoirs for overnight storage of 3 tanks per reservoir; total capacity : 5,000 m3 for about 8-10 hours pumping; pumping hours from boreholes to reservoirs : 8 hrs/day nIt n o the field 12 n' TOTAL : 20 overhead irrigation by sprinklers including 6" diameter asbestos cement main pipes below ground level and aluminium above ground portable pipes; booster pump feeding the over head system; capital investment cost: K. 107,00(.-i/ Application : present experience during 4 months of the growing period: of water 10,000 m3/ha; with sprinkler irrigation : 90 percent efficiency; experience proved excess water could be Seduced 25 percent; therefore, correct application: 7,500 m /ha. Cost of water : unknown. total per ha Capital : water development : 23,000 143 Investment costs21 irrigation works : 107,000 667 130,000 810 K 810/ha 1 1974 prices. Source: Mission Estimates ANNEX 14 Appendix XVIII Page 1 GOVERNMENT FARM MEDIUM-SCALE IRRIGATION FRCM CHAPELA RIVER (COPPERBELT) (UNDP/FAO-Assisted Pilot Project) This appendix gives an example of technical aspects and costs incurred on a medium-scale irrigation scheme with surface and sprinkler irrigation from lifted wate 1/ ECONOMIC ASPECTS AND WATER COSTS-/ EQUIPMENT Main Pump Units : Twin Wright Rain WRF64 (6"/4") units. Total output 70.5 1/sec = 254.2 m3/h. Total manometric head 48 m. Booster Pump : Wright Rain .WRF43 (4"/31) unit. Total output 11.3 1/sec = (feeding the sprinkler L0.8 m3/h. Total manometric head 48 m. system) Reservoir/ : Reservoir provides overnight storage for about 10 hours pumping 2,270 m3 capacity. Surface : Area commanded : 54.7 hn Irrigation Sprinkler : Area commanded : 9.6 ha (2!1 acres) Irrigation POTENTIAL Yield of (A) Main Pump Units = 254.2 m3/hx2Oh = 5,o84 m3/day (B) Booster Pump Unit = 40.8 m3/hx20h = 816 m3/day Hence: Surface irrigation supply = A - B = 4,268 m3/day The sprinkler system may irrigate 1.63 !Ia/day (efficiency: 0.7) The surface system may irrigate 5.7 ha/cday (efficiency: 0.5) Total irrigable area during the peak season (1 ! month): Sprinkler 1.63 x 6 = 9.6 ha (against 9.6 ha commanded area) Surface 5.7 x 6 =3h.2 ha ( - 5h.7 " " " ) Total: 43.8 ha ( - 64.3 n n It ) ANNEX 14 Appendix XVIII Page 2 INVESTMENT COSTSV Item Capital Yearly amortization costs Charges.? (Kwacha) A. Surface Irrigation System Pumping Station 9,190 1,950 Rising Main 9,600 950 Overnight storage 6,200 700 Control Structure 2,300 200 Conve.yance Structures 18,000 1,700 .1/ 1973 prices. 2/ at 0.07 interest rate with write-offperiod of 5 to 20 years according to sub-items not indicated. ANNEX 14 Appendix XVIII Page 3 Item Capital Yearly amortization costs at 0.07 int. rate (Kwacha) (Kwacha) SiDhons and 1,500 200 Wooden Gates Clearing and 36,700 3,600 Cirading Total investment 83,700 9,300 Specific costs on the commanded area (54.7 ha): I/ Investment cost 1.530 Kha= Yearly ann. charges 170 KVa B. Sprinkl.er Irrigation System Pumping Stations 2,700 560 Distribution Network 3,350 480 C1 aring of Bush 9,500 270 Total investment 9,500 1,440 Specific costs on the commanded area (9.6 ha): Investment cost 990 K/a/ Yearly ann. charges 150 K/'ha / 1,910 K (1974 prices) based on price increase of 25% on 1973 prices. 2/ 1,235 K (1974 prices) based on price increase of 25% on 1973 prices. ANNEX 14 Appendix XVIII Page li RECURRENT EXPENSES A. Surface Irrigation System 9,600 Specific recurrent expenses on the irrigated area: 280.00 K/ha 2 B. Sprinkler Irrigation System 2,200 Specific recurrent expenses on the irrigated area (9.6 ha): 230 K/ha,- IRRIGATION COSTS Sprinkler Surface Irrigation Irrigation - Amortization of investment costs 170,000 150,000 - Maintenance and operation 280,000 230,000 Total annual costs: 450,000 380,000 WATER COSTS (K/m3) Surface Irrigation: 0.032 Sprinkler Irrigation: 0.038 2/ 1973 prices. 21 K 350 (1974 price) based on price increase of 25% on 1973 prices. 3/ K 291.53 (1974 price) based on price increase of 25% on 1973 prices. ANNEX 14 Appendix XIX Page 1 COMMUNITY SMALL-SCALE IRRIGATION Chunga Scheme, 1960 (15 km north-west of Lusaka) The purpose of this appendix is to give an example of small-scale community development through irrigation, and of the technical approach and capital cost. Source of water Chunga stream, tributary of Mwembeshi river; - the disposal from Lusaka treated sewage repre- sents a regulated flow of 5,000 m3/day (60 1/s) into the Chunga stream; - weir: 4 m high, 5 m wide; to raise water at terrace level; 'I - capital investment cost: K. 9,000 - Irrigated area : 32 small holdings of 0.25 ha/farmer. Irrigation : gravity irrigation, run-of-river system; - main furrow, constructed by farmers, plus field canals; 3 3 - Scheme's water requirement: 500 m /day or 62.5 m /ha for 150 days irrigation: 9,375 m3/ha " 100 " : 7,500 m3/ha no water partition, no water allocation; free volume available; 1/ - capital investment cost - : K. 2,000 for furrow cross-over, culverts, road. Capital investment : weir contract : 9,000 cost (K) 1/ irrigation works : 2,000 TOTAL K. 11,000 capital input per small holding : K. 343 " " " 1 1 1 ha " : 1,375 2 Revenue : Mainly from vegetables, K. 300 to K. 500 per year farmer. 1/ 1970 prices. 2/ Could be as low as L 550 for a 20 ha acre. Source: Partly Simon B. Zukas & Partners, Nov., 1973. "A Low Profile Approach to Rural Development" and Mission Estimates. ANNEX 14 Appendix XX Page 1 PROPOSED IRRIGATION COORDINATING COMMITTEE (ICC) Composition : Chairman: Permanent Secretary of the Ministry of Rural Development )MRD) Alternate: Director of DWA, Head of Land Use Services Members: Irrigation Research, Projects Division, Water Service of DWA, Senior Soil Sur- veyor, Commercial Farmers Bureau, Senior Economist, MRD Planning Unit, SAA/FAO Representative of UNDP and IBRD, Irrigation Engineer Sugar Estate, etc... Terms of Reference 1. Define a national policy for irrigation development. 2. Formulate a policy on pricing of water. 3. Plan and program large-scale irrigation development on a basin-wide approach. 4. Supervise and draw priorities for implementation of medium- and small-scale irrigation schemes a provincial level. 5. After preparation of detailed proposals by a provincial working group, review, comment upon and approve the project proposals. Organization : A technical Secretary assisted by a small staff should act on a permanent basis, and prepare the agenda of the periodic sessions of the Committee. Prospective : The ICC should include four river basin subconmittees under the chairmanship of a Provincial Water Engineer. Membership of each subcommittee should include the Provincial Agricultural and Land Use Planning Officers provinces concerned. : The Irrigation Coordinating Committee, with its permanent Technical Secretariat, should lead !to the creation of a Government organization as irri,gation development becomes more important. TECHNICAL INVENTORY OF THE EXISTING RURAL WATER SUPPLY SITUATION FOR A RURAL WATER DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM (Example of Luapula Province) Summary of Priorities Priority Description Districts in Luapula Total of 5 Mansa Kawambwa Samfya Nchelenge Mwense Districts (10 Chiefs) (4 Chiefs) (11 Chiefs) (5 Chiefs) (7 Chiefs) (37 Chiefs) 1 Village water supplies re- quiring improvement or repair 9 25 15 14 78 71 2 Villages far from river or stream 97 4 31 4 17 153 3 Villages using water from periodic stream 348 69 51 20 73 561 4 Villages using impure water from perennial stream 66 150 164 6 191 577 5 Villages using pure water from perennial stream_./ 53 - 170 - - 223 6 Villages using water from lake or river_/ 50 - 129 184 - 363 7 Villages with insufficient water supply_ 17 4 16 9 4 50 8 Villages with adequate water supplies 3 14 22 4 22 65 Total 643 266 598 241 315 2,063 m CDX Less villages with 1 + 7 x 4 priority 3 1 9 7 2 20 Final number of villages 640 265 589 234 315 2,043 l/ Recorded as poor water supplies as the water source is exposed. 7/ Equipment criteria: - well equipped with wind mill is adequate for: 100 people -1 " It" hand pump " " " : 200 people - piped water supply is adequate for over : 600 people ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 1' PROJECT OUTLINES INTENSIFICATION OF WATER DEVELOPMENT IN RURAL AREAS Long-Term : (a) To serve 90% to 100% of the growing rural Objective population with adequate water supplies by 1986 (about 10,000 additional water supplies). (b) To develop peri-urban and village irrigated agriculture up to 7,000 ha (medium-scale) and 2,000 ha (small-scale) by 1986. (c) To construct adequate watering points for cattle population. Immediate To intensify during the third NDP (1977-1981) water Objective development in rural areas for domestic supply and cattle watering, and to develop the construction of water sources and irrigation works for medium- and small-scale irrigation. Location All provinces Activities : (a) Inventory and status of existing water supplies and and watering points; identification of potential Requirements irrigation schemes; duration: six months; local enteiprise and external consultation for above and project formulation. (b) Establishment of a five-year rural water develop- ment plan by province from the districts, and preliminary operations for its implementation through annual programs; duration: one year; local expertise and external consultation; specifications for additional equipment; prep- aration of sub-contracts, etc. (c) Construction of wells, boreholes, small dam- reservoirs (ponds), irrigation works, etc.; implementation, operation, and maintenance; duration: five years, possibly ten years; external expertise, equipment, loans, sub- contracts. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 2 External For activity (a): consultants: 4 m/m US$ 10,000 Inputs (b): consultants: 8 m/m 20,000 (c): experts and consultants: 6 m/y 180,000 equipment 1,800,000 sub-contracts 300,000 loan 2,000,000 Remarks : Activities (a) and (b) could be considered as pre- project activities. Activity (c), equipment, could be included in the loan to become 3.8 million. 2. BOREHOLE IRRIGATION IN COPPERBELT AND CENTRAL PROVINCES Long-Term : To irrigate 7,000 ha or more by 1986 through Objective public and private interests. Immediate To survey and demonstrate the irrigation potential Objective of the limestone groundwater reservoir. Location : Mpongwe area, south of Kafue River, for survey and demonstration; Copperbelt and Central Provinces for exploration (Map IBRD 11545). Activities : (a) Formulation of the project; one month; external and consultation. Requirements (b) Geophysical exploration with hydrogeological mapping; 12 months after external consultation; sub-contract. Mpongwe Area (c) Construction of exploration and exploitation boreholes; one year; sub-contract. (d) Detailed soil survey coordinated with (c) above, and few months of consultation. Location of irrigated areas. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 3 (e) Irrigation trials to serve also as long-term pumping tests; one or two years; management and consultants, equipment. (f) Simulation of propective use; three months; sub-contract. (g) Feasibility study. Other Areas (h) Construction of exploration boreholes with piezometers; two years; sub-contract. (i) Continuous pumping tests of few days; sub-contract. (j) Simulation of irrigation potential and evolution time-space; sub-contract. External : For activities (a)+(b): consultants 2 m/m US$ 8,000 Inputs sub-contract 100,000 (c): sub-contract 100,000 (d): consultants:3 m/m 10,000 (e): experts and con- sultants: 5 m/m 150,000 equipment 200,000 (f)+(g): sub-contract 100,000 (h)+(i)+(J): sub-contract 250,000 TOTAL 918,000 Possible loans (later on) 1,000,000 3. ESTABLISHMENT OF A CENTRAL WATER RESOURCES ARCHIVE Long-Term : To develop a nation-wide water resources data Objective collection and record system. Location : Lusaka Immediate : To establish a Central Water Archive, including the Objective necessary system for the collection, processing and retrieval of water resources data. Activities : (a) Inventory of existing data; one month; one and external consultant and local expertise. Requirements ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 4 (b) Critical analysis of existing logs (drilling, geophysics, etc.); three months; external and local expertise. (c) Organization of an archive system: report on proposals, purchase of equipment, computer time, office set-up, etc.; one year; local expertise and consultant. External : For activity (a): consultant: 1 m/m US$ 4,000 Input (b): consultant: 3 m/m 12,000 (c): consultant: 4 m/m 16,000 equipment 100,000 computer time, etc. 50,000 TOTAL 182,000 Remarks : This activity could be carried out together with the activity on the establishment of a map of the country's groundwater potential (see project outline no. 4). 4. ESTABLISHMENT OF A MAP OF THE COUNTRY'S GROUNDWATER POTENTIAL Long-Term : To develop a nation-wide system of information on Objective water resources with special emphasis on groundwater resources. Immediate To prepare a map of the country's groundwater potential, Objective based on present knowledge improved by a critical analysis of existing data. Location At Lusaka and/or outside the country. Activities (a) Inventory and critical analysis of existing and groundwater resources data; two months; external Requirements and local expertise. (b) Preparation of a hydrogeological map at an adequate scale (1,000,000 for instance) for planning and exploitation purposes; six months; external expertise. (c) Preparation of an explanatory note of the hydrogeological map; two months; external and local expertise. (d) Printing of the map and of the explanatory note; two months; sub-contract. ANNEX 14 Appendix )XII Page 5 External : For activity (a): consultants: 2 m/m US$ 8,000 Inputs (b): consultants: 6 m/m 24,000 (c): consultants: 2 m/m 8,000 (d): sub-contract 20,000 TOTAL 60,000 Note: All activities could be sub-contracted. Remarks : This activity could be carried out together with the activity on the establishment of a central water resources archive (see project outline no. 3). Longer term mapping should be developed using LANDSAT imagery (see project outline No. 11). 5. PROGRAM OF IRRIGATED WHEAT AND OTHER CROPS Long-Term : To reach a target of 15,000-20,000 ha area of additional Objective large-scale irrigation by 1986, excluding the 15,000 ha special program of sugarcane. Immediate : To implement during the third NDP (1977-1981) a Objective large-scale irrigation program of about 5,000-8,000 ha, mainly for irrigated wheat through smallholders' farms, and to reorganize and strengthen the land use services of MRD in the irrigation sector. Location : Map IBRD 11545 Kafue Flats: on the red soils of the flat margins and on the heavy clay soils; Munkumpu Region (65 km north of Lukanga Swamps): within a 17,000 ha area studied by German bilateral assistance. Activities : (a) Creation of an Irrigation Coordinating Committee; and reorganization of the land use services of MRD Requirements in the irrigation sector; local expertise; possible external consultation (also for the formulation of b and c thereafter). (b) Implementation of a 200-ha pilot development scheme of irrigated wheat for experimentation and feasibility study; duration: two years; external requirements: experts and consultants, equipment. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 6 (c) Implementation of a five-year large-scale irrigation program of about 5,000-8,000 ha at a rate of 1,500 ha/year, with 80% irrigated wheat. External For activity (a): consultant: 3 m/mr US$ 10,000 Inputs (b): experts and con- sultants: 5 m/y 150,000 equipment 450,000 (c): experts and con- sultants 10 m/y 300,000 equipment 500,000 loans (not including medium- + small- scale irrigation) 5,500,000 TOTAL 6,910,000 6. STUDY OF IRRIGATION POTENTIAL IN THE CHAMBESHI RIVER VALLEY Long-Term : To develop large- and medium-scale irrigation in the Objective vicinity of the Tazara line of rail. Immediate : To further ascertain the feasibility of large- and/or Objective medium-scale irrigation to serve as a first development phase. Location Between Bwela Flats and Mbati, including the valley's high terrace. Activities (a) Detailed soil survey; one year; local or external expertise. (b) Study of surface and groundwater withdrawal potential; one year; sub-contract. (c) Detailed identification of land and water development schemes, including formulation of a first phase development project; six months; external consultation. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 7 (d) Implementation of the first phase development project, including crop production study: rice, wheat, sugarcane. External : For activity (a): consultant: 3 m/m US$ 10,000 Inputs (b): sub-contracts 100,000 (c): consultants: 6 m/m 20,000 (d): experts and con- sultants: 5 m/y 150,000 equipment 300,000 sub-contracts 2Q0,00 TOTAL 780,000 Remarks : Implementation (d) is subject to favorable outcomes to the development activities (a), (b), plus (C). 7. CATTLE WATERING PROGRAM IN WESTERN PROVINCE Immediate : To construct about 150 boreholes in order to use the Objective grazing potential of Mulonga and Siloana Plains. Location : Mulunga and Siloana Plains, west of the Zambezi River, between latitude 160 and 17030'. Activities : (a) Formulation of the project, including careful and identification of the type of drilling rig (very Requirements mobile and light) and number (possibly two) suitable for that area; and other equipment specifications; one month; external consultation. (b) Planning and programing of the location of water points for range and water use; purchase of equipment; six months; external consultation. (c) Construction of boreholes; two-three years; sub-contract. External For activity (a): consultant: 1lm/m US$' 4,000 Inputs (b): consultants: 2 m/min 8,000 equipment 150,000 (c): sub-contract ;150j()o TOTAL 312,00() ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 8 8. ESTABLISHMENT OF A KAFUE BASIN WATER PLAN Long-Term : To create a Kafue Basin Water Authority (KBWA) Objective Immediate To establish a strategy and policy of water Objective management in the Kafue River Basin and to form a water plan. Location The entire river basin with headquarters in Lusaka. Activities : (a) Preparation of a preliminary simulation model of and water resource occurrence and use (present and Requirements potential). (b) Simulation of an alternative water and uses allocation according to a time-space distribution, including possible construction of hydraulic structures on the river and tributaries and of boreholes in the groundwater reservoirs. (c) Obtainment of a series of optimal technical and economic solutions. Note: Requirements for (a), (b) and (c): one year by a specialized firm. External For activities (a), (b) and (c): sub-contract Inputs US$ 250,000 Remarks : The creation of the Kafue Basin Water Authority should logically be a follow-up of the project. However, a coordinating committee could be created at the inception of this project as a preliminary (pre-project) activity to be carried out with the assistance of an external consultant who would also formulate the project. 9. PRE-FEASIBILITY STUDY ON MULTI-PURPOSE UTILIZATION OF ITEZHITEZHI DAM-RESERVOIR ON THE KAFUE RIVER Final : To decide on the heightening of the Itezhitezhi Dam Objective (mid-1975 at the latest). Immediate To prepare pre-feasibility reports on multi-purpose use Objective of water regulated by the Itezhitezhi Dam-Reservoir on the Kafue River and a feasibility study of possible heightening of the Dam. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 9 Location : Lusaka Activities : (a) Preparation of a pre-feasibility report on: and i) expected irrigated agricultural Requirements development in the Kafue Flats; ii) water requirements of (i), including livestock and wildlife, indicating annual and monthly distribution; iii) cost of development and timing; iv) economic benefits. (b) Preparation of a report on estimates of cost to increase the lay-out of the Itezhitezhi Dam in stages. (c) Appraisal of reports (a) and (b), and formula- tion of a feasibility study for possible heightening of the Dam. Note: Requirements for (a) and (b): three months; local expertise and external consultant. (c): two months; external expertise. External : For (a): consultants' assistance: 1 m/m US$ 3,000 Inputs (b): expertise by SWECO; consultant of ZESCO (c): consultants: 3 m/m 15,000 TOTAL 18,000 Remarks : The two reports on (a) and (b) should be submitted in February 1975. 10. PLANNING THE KAFUE FLATS DEVELOPMENT RELATED TO WATER Long-Term : To maximize the land and water development for Objective irrigated agriculture, livestock and wildlife. Immediate : To plan the optimum utilization of water for agri- Objecive culture through a reclamation study. I Location : An area of about 1,400,000 ha (14,000 km2),'including the heavy clay soils and the red soils of thie flat margin (Map IBRD 11545). ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 10 Activities (a) Study, including cost estimate, of the possible and embankment of the river (partial or total Requirements length), of poldering, feasibility study of the construction of dam-reservoirs on the tributaries according to previous studies, and of eventual inter-basin water transfer; two years; external expertise or sub-contract. (b) Study, including cost estimate, of the role of groundwater, of vertical versus horizontal drainage, and of possible uses of groundwater; two years; expertise and consultants, equipment, sub-contracts for geophysics, drilling simulation models, etc. (c) Identification of zones for large-scale irrigation schemes, for livestock development, for wildlife; six months; sub-contract. (d) Establishment of a master plan for the optimum utilization of water; six months; sub-contract. External For activity (a): sub-contract: two years US$ 300,000 (b): experts and consultants: 5 m/y 150,000 equipment 200,000 sub-contracts (geophysics, drilling and models) 400,000 (c)+(d): sub-contract: one year 150,000 TOTAL 1,200,000 Remarks : A three-man mission for one month is required (US$ 10,000) for the detailed formulation of the project. The mission will be a fact-finding one to appraise the project feasibility. ANNEX 14 Appendix XXII Page 11 1. EARTH SATELLITE MAPPING AND ANALYSIS OF HYDROLOGY Long-Term To develop Zambia's capability to utilize earth Objective satellite (LANDSAT) imagery for rational resource development and management. Immediate Use LANDSAT imagery to help identify ground and Objective surface water potentials, and train Zambians in mapping, ground-truthing, interpretation and analysis. Location Nationwide, with overseas courses. Activities (a) Preparation of color mosaics of all of Zambia and from 28 LANDSAT scenes of 2 or more seasons. Requirements (b) Ground-truthing with, as needed, supplementary air photography. (c) Interpretation and analysis of mosaics and preparation of overlap of water resources. (d) Application of methodology to agricultural, livestock and fisheries resource evaluation; to crop forecasting; and to other activities such as geologic mapping. (e) In stages (b) - (d), train qualified Zambian personnel in all activities. External Consultants: 24 man years and travel: US$400,000 Inputs Support, computer time, aircraft rental and equipment: US$100,000 US$500,000 ANNEX 15 Page i ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT Pararaph(s) Background 1 - 2 Description of Cattle Production 3 - 6 Central Line-of-Rail Region 3 Western Kalahari Region 4 Eastern Region 5 Northern Plateau Region 6 Cattle Marketing and Slaughtering 7 - 12 Milk Marketing and Processing 13 - 15 Pigs and Poultry 16 - 19 Services 20 - 23 Credit 20 Animal Health 21- _ 3 Animal Husbandry Research 24 Training 25 - 27 Extension 28 Development Strategies 29 - 6 General 30 - 3a Beef Production 33 - 38 Dairy Production 39 - h6 Appendix I: Offtake in Traditional Cattle Keeping Appendix II: Livestock Development Scheme in Progress Appendix III: Outline for Training Programs for Livestock Enterprise Managers ANNEX 15 Page 1 ZAMvBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT Background 1. Livestock production in Zambia is insufficient to meet the meat and dairy product demand of the local organized market. In the last five years, tLie annual imports of meat have ranged from 47,000 head to 94,000 head equi- valents. In 1973, beef imports amounted to about one third the domestic mar- keted slaughter but previously they equalled or were greater than the marketed domestic slaughter. Over 80% of all dairy produce sales are imported, and in 1973, milk imports alone increased to an equivalent of 63% of the total annual domestic sales of 32 million liters. The supply and demand situation in the traditional market system cannot be quantified. 2. Most of the livestock products reaching the organized domestic markets are produced by commercial farmers who operate along the line-of- rail and in the Copperbelt region. Commercial producers, most of whom are expatriates, have statutory tenure to their land, and they are able to produce considerably in excess of their consumption needs. Normally, the traditional farmer has only communal tenure to grazing land for cattle and individual rights to crop land under customary law. Traditional farmers produce very little, if any, product for the organized market, although they may actively trade in unorganized markets or with their neighbors. Some traditional producers are moving into a class called "emergent farmers." Generally this means that they are able, for reasons of production efficiency and presence of market infrastructure, to produce and sell beyond consumption needs for the organized market. Some of them are gaining statutory land tenure, while others still operate on communal property. The following table shows the cattle ownership and production situation in a broad sense. 1/ 1/ These data are taken from MRD information and are compiled by the Veterinary Service. They differ from the census data compiled by the Central Statistical Office. The main difference is that the census shows 2,600,000 head of cattle owned by traditional farmers. Also, the total offtake, including home and local slaughter and sales for the organized market, is shown to be 8% in the census. This indicates that some 100,000 cattle are slaughtered annually for home and local consumption, in contrast to MRD estimates of 40,000 head. ANNEX 15 Page 2 Annual Slaughter Offtake Producer No. of Cattle for Organized Market Commercial Beef 275,000 Beef Cattle 12% - 15% Commercial Dairy 7,000 Dairy Cattle Traditional Farmer /a 1,570,000 Multi-purpose Cattle 2% - 4% /a See Appendix I: Offtake in Traditional Cattle Keeping. Description of Cattle Production 1/ Central Line-of-Rail Region 3. For descriptive purposes, this region may be considered as three areas: the Central, the Southern, and the Copperbelt. In the Central Area, where maize and cotton growing predominate, one finds approximately half of Zambia's commercial beef farmers. Traditional farmers in this area own some 223,000 head of cattle (15% of the traditional herd), which are grazed communally. Most of the commercial pig and poultry production and most of the 75 commercial dairy farmers in Zambia are also in this area. In the Southern Area, there is some commercial beef and dairy production, mainly near Mazabuka, Choma, Monze and Livingstone. Five commercial dairymen have their own market cooperative. In this area, an estimated 657,000 cattle (42% of the traditional herd) are husbanded by traditional farmers who also cultivate. Part of this herd is grazed on the Kafue Flats in the dry season. The predominant cattle breed is Tonga. In the Copperbelt, about 7,000 head are owned by commercial producers who supply livestock products to the popula- tion working in the copper industry. The largest dairy unit in the country, Kafubu State Dairy, with over 800 milk cows, is located in this area. Western Kalahari Region 4. In this region, which comprises the former Barotseland Protector- ate, cattle production is mostly traditional, and the Barotse breed is pre- dominant. It is estimated that 200,000 head (13% of the traditional herd) are grazed on the flood plain of the Zambezi River when the river is low (August through February or March) and on the edge of the flood plain in the flood season. During the dry period, there is ample grazing for cattfle, but during the wet period the poor grazing at the edge of the flood plain causes the cattle to lose weight. This weight loss is estimated to be about 100 1/ See Map IBRD 11541 for further description of cattle location. ANNEX 15 Page 3 pounds each year for a mature cow. Another 170,000 head (11% of the tradi- tional herd) are located elsewhere in the western area. The slaughter offtake for these cattle is low, partly because calves have to compete for milk used in home consumption (or sold locally in the form of soured milk), and partly because of the poor feeding available during the flood season. Eastern Region 5. In this region, where the predominant breed is Angoni, the tsetse fly zone restricts cattle production to parts of the Chipata, Katete, Lundazi and Petauke Districts. Some 170,000 head are owned by traditional farmers and grazed on communal lands. There is very little commercial production in this area. Northern Plateau Region 6. About 90,000 head of cattle are owned by traditional farmers in the Northern Province, where the tsetse fly restricts the use of land available for cattle production, and, in general, the people lack a tradition of livestock keeping. Some 40,000 head are kept under communal grazing systems in the North Western and Luapula Provinces. An area of the North Western Province, between twinilunga and the Copperbelt, has high potential for cattle development but is used very little at present. Cattle Marketing and Slaughtering 7. The Cold Storage Board (CSB) operates the processing plants and carries out much of the live-cattle marketing. The CSB also manages the import of beef products. Private buyers and butchers have become more active in recent years, mainly because they can offer higher prices than the CSB which sells meat to private retail butcher shops at wholesale prices fixed by the Government. Private buyers send their purchased cattle to CSB plants for custom slaughter, and then retail the meat from private butcher shops. Since private buyers are not tied to a fixed wholesale price, and since retail prices are favoraole, private buyers have more leeway to offer higher prices (30%) to producers than CSB. Also, they offer convenient purchase and shipping arrangements to producers. In 1973, CSB slaughtered 104,000 head, about 50,000 of which were bought by private buyers. 8. The CSB livestock buying program is carried out at 185 buying points, 97 of which are located in the Central Line-of-Rail Region, 34 in the Western Kalahari Region, 21 in the Eastern Region, and 33 in the Northern Plateau Region. Not all of these buying points have scales. One week before a sale, buyers go to the area to advertise the sale. After the sale, drovers take the cattle from the buying points to collection centers from which they ANNEX 15 Page 4 are trucked to slaughter facilities. Lack of trained graders, insufficient cash to pay producers at the time of sale, and ineffective advertisement of sales are some of the problems encountered. These problems result in ineffi- ciencies, which cause producers to lose confidence in the CSB buying systen. CSB's marketing problems are aggravated by periodic outbreaks of Foot and Mouth Disease, Bovine Pleuro Pneumonia and East Coast Fever, which result in restrictions on cattle movements. 9. On the advice of the Ministry of Rural Development, the Zambian Cabinet sets the grade prices to be offered, based on estimated conversion to cold-dressed-weight meat. At the sale, Government graders grade the livestock and thereby establish the per weight or head price. In December 1974, the live-weight prices per hundred kg, based on percent cold-dressed meat, were K 79.80 for 52%, K 72.20 for 46% and K 52.15 for 43% conversion, respectively, to cold-dressed meat. 10. At present, there is slack in CSB production facilities, which, under normal operating conditions, could slaughter twice as many cattle as have been slaughtered in recent years. The capacities are as follows: Daily Slaughter Capacity Storage Capacity (Tons) Location (Head per 8-hr. shift) Freezing Cold Room Lusaka 350 125 70 Livingstone 100 0 10 Chipata 25 0 10 Mongu 30 /1 10 10 Mbala 25 0 0 /2 Kitwe 50 0 0 /1 Estimate. Operation started in 1975. /2 Transported to chilling plan at Kasama. 11. Local officials estimate that over 40,000 animals are slaughtered in villages every year. This slaughter is often associated with wedding and funeral ceremonies, but is also frequently carried out to provide cash from meat sold on the spot to villagers. Often, the traditional farmer prefers to sell his livestock in this way, rather than waiting for a CSB sale at which his animals are sometime discriminated against on the basis of quality (i.e., the grader decides the animals are too old or too emaciated to be proces'sed). 12. Data for accurate projection of supply and demand of beef products is not available. Based on the strong demand for imported beef in recent years, however, a gap clearly exists between domestic production for marketed slaughtering and consumer demand. There is no reason to believe that the rate of increase of offtake from commercial production will meet the rate of ANNEX 15 Page 5 increase in consumer demand. Nor, at the present prices, can an increase in beef offtake for the organized market from traditional production be expected. Rising incomes in urban areas will maintain the rising demand. W4hile the incentives for commercial beef production are sufficient to expect a normal growth rate (about 3% per year) in offtake, the overall result will be a persistence of the gap between supply and demand in the future. Milk Marketing and Processing 13. Domestic milk is bought and processed by the Dairy Produce Board (DPB), which also has a wo.;opoly on milk collection and distribution. The DPB operates factories in Kitwe, Kabwe, Lusaka and Mazabuka which manufacture a wide variety of dairy products. The DPB also manages the importation of dairy products. Imported dried milk powder, which made up two-thirds of the organized market supply of 32 million liters in 1973, is reconstituted and marketed by the DPB. The DPB has been operating at a trading loss in the last few years. 14. Mlany enmergent farmers and commercial producers sell milk at the farm gate or at local markets because they receive higher prices than the DPB offers (1 kwacha versus 40 ngwee per imperial gallon). In parts of the traditional sector, particularly in the Western Province, farmers produce soured milk which is sold locally. Production is seasonal, and sales depend on supply in excess of consumption needs. This product is storable without refrigeration. In many cases, the sale of soured milk is the principal cash return from cattle raising. Interestingly, the taste for soured milk is so developed that some townspeople buy fresh milk and then sour it before con- sumption. 15. The growing demand for dairy products comes at a time of decreas- ing production. Unlike beef production, there is a disincentive for dairy production in the form of product prices below costs of production. Currency repatriation restrictions also make it undesirable for commercial dairy producers to invest in capital improvements and larger herds. Further, commercial dairy management skill among emergent farmers is poor, and thus production increases from this sector cannot be expected to have significant impact on supply. In 1973, about 63% of the milk products marketed by DPB came from imported dried milk powder; and it is projected that this percentage will increase to over 80% in the near future. Local production by small farmers is discouraged by the sale in the rural provinces of long-life milk processed by the DPB in Lusaka. This milk is sold at a subsidized price, often below the already low price fixed for sales of fresh milk. ANNEX 15 Page 6 Pigs and Poultry 16. Modern commercial production for both pigs and poultry requires high-priced inputs of concentrate feed and intensive husbandry practices. These requirements inhibit the rapid development of improved production in the traditional sector where pigs and poultry tend to be regarded as scavenger enterprises demanding little attention. 17. Poultry production has been successfully developed in Zambia: in 1973, some 10 million dozen eggs and 6.2 million table birds were marketed. Zambia is not only self-sufficient, but has a growing export trade in day- old chicks. Most poultry production is carried out by large-scale, expatriate farmers who operate in an industry that has been left free of Government control. Some small farmers, located mostly near the urban areas, have been brought into poultry production through the Rural Poultry Development Scheme which was started in 1969. 18. Pig production is located mostly in the line-of-rail provinces. A survey conducted in 1972-73 showed a population of 6,925 head of breeding stock in these provinces, 52% of which were located around Lusaka, 26% in the Copperbelt, and 22% in the Southern Province. Zambia Pork Products Ltd. (ZAPP) manages the slaughtering facilities and marketing system for commercial production. ZAPP is not a monopoly buyer or distributor, however. In 1973, official line-of-rail slaughterings by ZAPP amounted to 35,228 head, while slaughtering by private butchers in all of Zambia was estimated at 12,,192 head. Based on production projections from the breeding herd, unrecorded slaughterings could well have exceeded recorded slaughterings. In the Eastern Province, there is a traditional herd of 50,000 to 70,000 pigs of local breeds. This offtake is consumed almost entirely locally. Larger-scale production is inhibited in this area by the existence of endemic African Swine Fever, which restricts movement of live pigs or unsterilized meat products. This situation could be improved by enlarging processing facilities and improving marketing. 19. It is estimated that 64,000 pigs would have to be slaughtered to fully satisfy the annual urban demand, which is estimated to be increasing by 10% per year. Before 1973, imported pork products made up the deficit from local producers. In 1973, however, the shortage of pork products for importation at acceptable prices resulted in lower imported quantities (11,000 head versus 45,000 to 50,000 head equivalents in previous years). While lower imports stimulated local production, the high cost of concentrate feed inhibits the growth of local production to the degree that it cannot be projected to adequately meet the demand. Efforts by MRD and ZAPP to assist the development of pig production are under way. These efforts are adequate, and there is no indication that further assistance would be contributive. ANNEX 15 Page 7 Services 20. Credit. Althoughi some livestock producers get credit for animal purchase from the Agriculture Finance Company, most livestock credit comes from the Cattle Financing Company (CFC) of the Rural Development Corporation (RDC). Under a program called "The Grazier Scheme" for establish- ed and new beef producers, the CFC offers support for 85% of the purchase price for livestock. Money is paid directly to the seller, with limits placed on the amount loaned per animal and the number of animals per borrower. Under the plan, animals are branded, and farmers agree, under threat of repossession, to carry out certain husbandry practices and to keep the cattle in the specified locality. CFC maintains four regional offices to supervise loans. Since 1969, about 200 farmers per year have been supported by cattle loans from the CFC. Almost all of the loans have been to commercial farmers, although some credit opportunities have been directed at emergent farmers; few, if any, loans have been extended to the traditional sector, however. 21. Animal Health. The veterinary service has a staff of 30 veterinar- ians, 85 senior veterinary assistants, 189 veterinary assistants, and 35 livestock officers (diploma graduates). Some commercial producers use the services of the few. private veterinary practitioners in Zambia. 22. Control programs for tsetse fly and East Coast Fever (ECF) are carried out on a continuous basis, while programs for Foot and Mouth Disease and Contagious Bovine Pluero Pneumonia (CBPP) consist of surveillance and control when outbreaks occur. Foot and Mouth Disease occurs sporadically and is limited mostly to the southern and western regions. Zambia restricts animal importation to sources which are free of Foot and Mouth Disease, and control efforts for this disease have been very effective. CBPP occurs mostly in the western region; outbreaks of this disease are associated with the movement of cattle from Angola. Efforts to control CBPP have also been successful, and farmers have gained increased confidence in Government through the control program. ECF is endemic in the northern and eastern regions of Zambia, where dips for cattle have been built by the Government. The dip construction program is proceeding at a rate of about five dips per year. In general, farmers see the value in dipping cattle, although some resistance to this process has been encountered in the northern area. A marked increase and extension of the incidence of ECF has recently (February 1975) been reported in the Eastern Province. 23. As in many areas of Africa, the control of trypanosomiasis through programs against the tsetse fly has not always been successful in Zambia, where the incidence of cattle trypanosomiasis is relatively high (500,000 to 700,000 animals were treated annually in the years 1971 through 1973). Information available from the Eastern Province shows the impact on cattle of intensive spraying against tsetse fly: deaths in this province decreased ANNEX 15 Page 8 from 662 in 1972 to 225 in 1973. In several areas, however, the barriers have not been able to contain the tsetse fly influence. This is due in part to erratic spraying, but also, in the opinion of the MRD Tsetse Fly Control (TFC) Office, to the two-kilometer interval between game and stock fences. In order to achieve effective results, the TFC Office believes that the interval between the fences must be increased to five kilometers. In the soutiern area, fly influence has spread to high-potential agricultural areas because funds were not allocated for spraying in 1973-74. 1/ Such break-throughs of the barrier are to be deplored. 24. Animal Husbandry Research. The Animal Husbandry Central Research Station in Zambia is at Mazabuka. At present, research is concentrated on crossbred dairy animal production under conditions similar to those found in traditional farming--i.e., almost exclusive forage feeding on a seasonal basis in which cows are milked seven months and dry five months. The station also imports and distributes frozen semen to commercial producers. Additional research projects under way at Mfazabuka and other field research locations are: the evaluation of indigenous and crossbred beef bulls, the supplementary feeding of bulls with urea, and the examination of production characteristics of indigenous and crossbred sheep and goats. 25. Training. In Zambia, education and training facilities for the livestock industry are limited, and all veterinarians must be trained outside of the country. Only recently have animal science students started to graduate from the five-year program of the University of Zambia's School of Agriculture. The Natural Resources Development College graduates 16 students per year in a three-year diploma course in livestock science and production. At Mazabuka, students are given a two-year course in preparation for jobs as veterinary assistants. A College of Agriculture at Monze offers courses for animal husbandry extension staff at the certificate level. It is from these institutions that the Government draws its staff for technical assistants in the veterinary and extension service. This output, however, is insufficient to meet the needs. 26. Farmers are trained at 8 farm institutes and 24 farmer-train-ing centers which are operated by the Extension Training Section of the MRD. Training of farmers is also carried out as part of some livestock deve'lopment schemes. Such training is done by extension field staff on the farm. Only a few farmers benefit from this training, however. Part of the StatelBeef and Dairy Ranch Development Program is aimed at training managers for commercial-size operations. To date, the output of qualified management personnel has been far less than expected and insufficient to meet the needs. 1/ Source: MRD Tsetse Fly Control Office. ANNEX 15 Page 9 27. A specialized, short-term training program in the preservation of hides has recently been started at the College of Agriculture in Monze. At present there are about 20 students in the program who will return to their localities to improve the production of hides prepared for export sales. 28. Extension. The MRD Animal Husbandry Extension Service assists the CSB in marketing operations, carries out farmer-training programs, actively participates in field research projects, and also functions as the operational agency for the livestock development schemes. The staff of this body consists of six senior professionals in the headquarters office, and one professional and two to four technical officers in eachi of the eight provinces. In addition, a total of 720 junior technical officers and agricultural assistants and 891 demonstrators work on crop and livestock production in agricultural camps and stations throughout Zambia. At present, there are a number of staff vacancies. The situation of inadequate staff and budget for transportation greatly hinders the efficiency with which the Service can carry out its assigned responsibilities. Development Strategies 29. This section offers suggestions on development strategies, policies and programs which might alleviate or reduce the major constraints involved in livestock production in Zambia. These constraints, briefly stated, are: lack of trained manpower for animal husbandry extension, animal health and commercial livestock management, price disincentives for dairy production, and a lack of marketing systems for the livestock products of the traditional farmer. General 30. Animal health and animal husbandry extension services must be im- proved and expanded. In animal healtih, two to three qualified persons should be given support each year for veterinary medicine education. In addition, one or two of the current veterinary service staff should be offered an opportunity for graduate study in epidemiology and administration of animal health programs. This training is available in the U.S. and in the U.K. Support should also be directed at increasing the number of para-professional animal health technicians. In animal husbandry extension, training of persons who have first-hand farm experience and who will live in rural areas should be given high priority. The training facilities at Monze must be expanded. Also, support for transportation and related costs is needed in order for the extension service to carry out its responsibilities. Over a five-year period, an estimated K 1.2 million (US$1.9 million) should be invested annually in the improvement of animal husbandry extension and animal health services. ANNEX 15 Page 10 Of this, K 200,000 should be allocated to the improvement and enlargement of existing training centers, K 200,000 to the annual support of 30 to 40 trainees in extension and veterinary assistance, K 40,000 for graduate and undergraduate education of veterinarians, K 320,000 for supplies and transportation for the extension department, and K 440,000 for the support of animal disease control programs and tsetse fly control. 1/ 31. In order to have greater impact on the traditional sector, animal husbandry research should focus more attention on improving the economic situation of the traditional farmer. To this end, agricultural economists should be consulted in solving such problems as the determination of the optimum mix of milk production and calf rearing under traditional cattle- keeping conditions. Demonstration of successful animal husbandry techniques should be emphasized in training programs. Published material on livestock production under conditions similar to those in Zambia should be reviewed, evaluated, catalogued and relocated for easy reference by animal husbandry technicians and students. 32. Although it is difficult to estimate the quantity, experienced observers agree that in most areas of Zambia more grazing resources exist than are currently utilized. One indication of this is the a high incidence of grass fires in certain areas. Use of all grazing lands and full develop- ment of the cattle industry would provide an improved opportunity to satisfy the nutritional needs of Zambians, and also provide foreign exchange savings. In the following discussions, beef and dairy production are discussed separately; it should be borne in mind, however, that most cattle serve a dual role and also that the cow fits into the farming mix to utilize under- employed land and labor resources. Beef Production 33. Altnough not operating efficiently at present, the state ranches are potentially a good base from which to achieve a better performance in beef production. The ranches also have the potential for providing beef breeding animals for both commercial beef producers and for members of the 1/ In September 1974, a conference to review agricultural education and training was held in Zambia. The proceedings of this conference indicate that Zambia is well aware of the problems facing agricultural education. The main recommendations of this conference, as well as additional dis- cussion on the need for improvement of the extension service, may be found in the annex on Agricultural Services. ANNEX 15 Page 11 National Beef Development Scheme, which is discussed in Appendix II. Further, tile state ranches can fulfill a training role and help Zambians to develop commercial ranch management skills through programs in which expatriate ranch managers work witlh trainees in on-the-ranch training programs. 1/ 34. Improvement in the operation of state ranches should be supported, so that they achieve more efficient production and training goals. New state ranches snould not be started until those already in existence are judged to be operating well. At present, additional personnel to manage the ranches is needed. Because of a shortage of trained Zambians, it is likely that new management recruits will have to be expatriates. So as to ensure adequate time for the training of Zambians, these new recruits should be offered condi- tions of employment that will be satisfactory for a period of from five to ten years. 35. In an effort to bring the small farmer into the commercial beef production scene, the National Beef Development Scheme was initiated. This scheme has merit from both the technical and the income distribution standpoints. Improvements in the operations of the state beef ranches and the extension service shiould result in providing the inputs needed to support the scheme. 2/ 36. In the traditional sector, a higii calf mortality rate, caused primarily by poor neonatal nutrition, is a major constraint on the offtake of beef. In order to meet their own consumption needs, farmers give minimal amounts of milk to their calves. 3/ The alleviation of this condition by use of milk replacer is not economic and plans to subsidize the supply and distribution of replacer to farmers should be discouraged. Improved disease 1/ See Appendix III for more discussion on training programs. 2/ See Appendix II. 3/ See Appendix I for more discussion on this topic. ANiNEX 15 Page 12 control programs and summer grazing schemes 1/ offer the best opportunity to increase beef offtake by increased production in the traditional sector. 37. The limitation of pasture availability because of the tsetse fly is a constraint on cattle production, particularly in the high-producing areas in the Kalomo and Eastern Choma Districts. 2/ Also, in parts of the Petauke, Chipata and Katete Districts, the tsetse fly influence is spreading and adversely affecting crop and livestock production. In these areas and pernaps in others where the agricultural production potential is relatively high, support of the tsetse fly control programs is justified. 38. Still another constraint, particularly in the case of emergent farmers, is a lack of sufficient credit. The CFC should be supported and encouraged to increase its efforts to identify farmers who would be responsive to loans for cattle production. Personnel should be trained to analyze farmer potential, design a production plan and give field supervision of loans. This personnel, working either in the direct employ of the CFC or for the extension service, could carry out the credit supervision work with other extension activities. 3/ Improved animal disease control is an important factor in the use of credit for cow purchases. Potential borrowers are more willing to risk the debt burden and increase their resource inputs for cattle production if they have reasonable expectation of assistance in minimizing death losses. 1/ See Appendix II. 2/ See Hap IBRD 11541 showing the spread of tsetse fly influence beyond the barriers. 3/ The experience of technicians trained by the Agriculture Finance Corporation in Kenya would be helpful. For some years, they experienced serious problems of poor repayment and default with their cattle loans to small dairy farmers. The loan supervision was carried out by extension personnel under a very loose arrangement. The Kenya AFC then trained and employed their own field staff, and this in part has resulted in an improved loan performance. In Zambia, if the arrangement were proper and if responsibilities were clearly understood, it is conceivable that the field loan supervision personnel could be in the employ of the extension service, rather than CFC. Such an arrangement is less,desir- able but would probably be a necessity because of management and manpower efficiency. At least in the early stages, this efficiency is vilewed to outweigh the more effective arrangement under which field loan s'uper- vision staff are under the direct management of the CFC. In any event, such persons should not be assigned responsibilities as both extension agents and loan supervisors. The execution of these duties by the same person to the same farmers is a source of conflict which can result in inadequate performance of either or both functions. ANNEX 15 Page 13 Dairy Production 39. The major constraint on commercial milk production is that the price paid to producers by the DPB is too low even to maintain present pro- duction levels, and thus is a certain disincentive to the expansion of dairy fanning. Producers are responding to the low prices by decreasing the amount of concentrate fed to milk cows, shifting to dairy beef production, and not investing in capital improvements in facilities and in larger herds. To improve the situation, it seems clear that Zambia needs a national policy on dairy pricing that will encourage production. 40. Another problem facing the dairy industry is the disappearance of dairy management expertise, most of which is expatriate. To a degree, this is associated with the producer milk price disincentive, but it is also caused by the strict legislation against the repatriation of currency. The relaxation of this legislation announced in the 1975 budget should encourage more expatriates to purchase the imports necessary to maintain and develop dairy production. It remains to be seen, of course, whether this measure will be adequate. To help improve conditions, the training of Zambians in dairy management should be emphasized, and expatriate managers should be required to demonstrate the successful training of Zambian apprentices in specified skills and at certain time intervals. Training of dairy producers on commercial farms has an advantage over training at state dairy farms in that the former provide the economic realities of agriculture in the actual training situation. 1/ 41. Today in Zambia, crossbred milk cows are being raised at Palabana and at some of the rural dairies and state ranches. These animals are meant to be used mostly by small farmers. The use of such cows, given their greater need for high-cost feed, the large capital outlay for their purchase, and their lesser comparative adaptiveness to the physical and disease environment, which increases the risk at stake for owners, does not make economic sense under the present conditions of the low producer milk price paid by the DPB. Even with the higher prices obtainable at the farm gate, the payoff to the high inputs for crossbred cow milk production remains doubtful and the economics of dairying in Zambia now favors the native cow more than the crossbred cow. 42. The research and extension activities in crossbred cow dairying should be maintained at the present level only in order to ensure that Zambia retains its position of experience with high-producing stock against the time wnen relative prices change. In terms of applicability to the present-day Zambian economic situation, the best return to dairy cow production research 1/ See Appendix III. ANNEX 15 Page 14 is in the improvement of the genetic potential of native cattle through within-breed selection. Unless the Government adopts dairy product price policies which yield an acceptable return to production inputs, the relative lower production from the native cow will have to be accepted. In the same vein, the present use of crossbred cows in the Rural Milk Production Scheme does not make economic sense. The most sensible approach would be to revise price policies: failing this, nowever, the scheme should switch to use of selected native stock. 43. The principal effort to bring the small farmer into commercial dairy production has been made through the Rural Milk Production Scheme. Althougn this scheme has defects--mainly in the high input-low output sense--the goals of demonstrating training and market establishment are very worthy and appear to be attainable. Efforts to maximize the impact of this scheme should therefore be encouraged. Growth centers, where farmer response to this scheme would be the greatest and where support infra- structure, i.e., market system and technical assistance, can be most effi- ciently developed, should be identified. These centers might well be in association with Rural Growth Areas identified for development of other types of agriculture production. 44. Earlier in this section, it is indicated that the farmers who would be most responsive to development efforts are the commercial and emergent farmers. The agriculture resources managed by the traditional farmer are greater in size, but, because of lack of infrastructure, the need of farm output for home consumption and, in many cases, poorer resource quality, the productivity of the traditional farmer for the organized commercial market is much less. To achieve redress of income distribution and increase produc- tion to meet supply and demand gaps, emphasis must be placed on assistance to traditional cattle keepers. This is a difficult and costly task, the returns of which must be measured, at least in part, in terms of social benefits. 45. Certainly, the improvement in extension and animal health ser- vices mentioned earlier will benefit the traditional as well as the commercial farmer. However, the best opportunity to develop dairy production in the traditional sector lies in the development of a market system which would accept the product of the traditional farmer, provide stable prices and an almost daily cash flow. Their product is small quantities of non-uniform quality milk or soured milk. Groups of villages or farms should be identified that are judged, based on environmental and farmer interest considerations, to have potential as growth centers for traditional dairy market development. These growth centers may well evolve in time into market cooperatives. Because of the high concentration of traditional livestock in the Southern Province and the existence of much of the needed infrastructure, this province would be the best area in which to encourage growth centers with a dairy ANNEX 15 Page 15 component. In some areas of the Western Province, livestock concentrations and infrastructure are such that more conscious efforts and considerable capital inputs are needed to establish growth centers, but these would be justified and would have political advantage. At first, the market may simply consist of distribution of soured milk from the traditional farmer to nearby comm,unities. Later, the processing of fluid milk into ghee, cheese, and pasturized milk could be introduced. 46. In the past, milk collection from traditional farmers has been tried on a very short-term basis with poor results. Better results can be obtained in tne future if communication with farmers is improved and if milk collection procedures are dependable from the beginning. The farmer's trust must be earned first. His response will be slow. The development of a sound system will require considerable patience and dedication. ANNEX 15 APPENDIX I Page 1 OFFTAKE IN TRADITIONAL CATTLE KEEPING 1. The measurement of offtake by cattle sold for meat does not reflect the offtake from the land as perceived by the traditional farmer. A major offtake for him is in milk, and he will deprive a calf of milk in order to insure his own consumption or cash needs. The resultant poor growth of the calf, or, in some cases, death of the calf, is weighed against this need for milk or cash from its sale. This milk "offtake" obviously decreases the number of cattle available for meat offtake. Also, the traditional farmer will retain cattle, as a sort of "savings account" for expenses such as school fees, bride price, and other social debts. his cost of keeping the animals is lowq, and ne has poor access to commercial savings accounts. Another form of offtake is manure; given the low input costs, this "offtake" is a further disincentive to sell cattle. 2. The question of "Why don't they sell their cattle?-- the economic advantage seems obvious'r is frequently raised. An excellent study on this question--"The Role of Cattle in the Ila (a Zambian tribe) Economy," in African Social Research, Vol. 15, (June 1973)--makes the following three points: (a) People will not sell more cattle unless the increased cash which they get in return can be spent on some- thing of equal investment value, or at least on visibly worthwhile durable consumer products. (b) Few are likely to sell beyond a point which would make them unable to meet obligations and rights to help and be helped by a wide range of kin, both socially and economically; they will not willingly give up social egalitarianism of Ila society. (c) Like many cattle peoples, Ila and Tonga are egali- tarian in outlook. While they respect a man who has become wealthy by his own efforts, which may include his having adopted more modern methods of production, it can be assumed that they will resist any develop- ment which favors the already wealthy--particicularly the man with inherited rather than earned wealth-- at the expense of the less fortunate. 3. From this, it would seem that in the long run, meat offtake from traditional farmers would be increased when a supply of "goods," such as schools, vehicles and housing is made available. Otherwise, the traditlional farmer sees little advantage in selling his "savings accounts," given the food and social needs of his day-to-day life. The following table, also ex- cerpted from Fielder's work, shows tne minimum number of cattle the Ila feel they need for self-sufficiency. ANNEX 15 APPENDIX I Page 2 The Minimum Number of Cattle for Self-Sufficiency (a) Household needs Trained oxen for ploughing, etc. 4 Cows for reproduction and milk 6 Bulls, for reproduction only 1 Not Yet productive (saleable in emergency) Untrained oxen 2 Heifers 3 Calves 4 Total 20 (b) But before he can think of selling regularly, the owner has other obligations: future bride- wealth payments; repayments on bride wealth al- ready received; cattle to be killed at funerals or for covering costs on debts and cases. So he will want in addition to have available more cows (already received bride wealth, etc.), younger oxen (for funerals, etc.), heifers (for bride wealth), and the odd calf; say ten. (c) To make doubly sure, after his experience of sudden losses in the past, he will not keep all his eggs in one basket. lie will have a margin herded out with other people. These cattle help his less self-sufficient friends and rela- tives, and thus win him supporters in time of need; say ten. Summary Bull Oxen Cows Heifers Calves Total Household needs 1 6 6 3 4 20 Obligations - 3 4 2 1 10 herded out - 3 3 2 2 10 Totals /1 1 12 13 7 7 40 /1 These totals are close to typical District proportions. ANNEX 15 APPENDIX II Page 1 LIVESTOCK DEVELOPMENT SCHEMES IN PROGRESS Beef 1. The National Beef Development Scheme, which was started in 1968, now has 2,500 members. Six hundred are concentrated in the southern provinces withi some 46,000 cattle, 3,400 in the central provinces with some 20,000 cattle, and the rest are scattered over the remainder of Zambia and have smaller herds. These members agree to carry out certain management practices in order to receive inputs such as barbed wire and insecticides at subsidized prices. Also they receive special attention from the extension service. The management practices have to do with keeping their cattle in paddocks, rotational grazing, spraying or dipping, vaccination, worming, castration and dehorning. At present, plans are being made to modify this scheme so that Village Produc- tivity Committees can act as members. 2. The State Beef Ranches were started in 1967 under a Bank loan which provided for land clearing, stocking and the employment of expatriate manage- ment expertise. The stock for these ranches came mostly from expatriate-run commercial ranches which were going out of business. Seven of these ranches were started under the loan, and another 6 were started by the Government. The loan was paid off and these ranches are now under a direct loan from Barclay's Bank. Of these, 10 are now considered to be operational and have 35,000 cattle. They are under the general management of an expatriate. These ranches have a history of problems related to higher costs of inputs than ex- pected, lower carrying capacities than estimated and inability to provide sufficiently well-qualified management. They are providing a training ground for Zambian nationals in beef production, and also produce breeding females and bulls for the National Beef Development Scheme. Efforts in both of these areas have met with difficulty, so the results are less than expected. In spite of this, the Zambia Cattle Development Limited (ZCDL) plans to continue the effort. 1 3. The Collective Ranches were started in 1968. Five ranches with from 200 to 1,800 head each are now in operation. The private cattle owners are charged a fee for services and the ranch is run by a hired manager. The costs of the ranches have been higher than expected and present plans are to phase them out and turn them into settlement schemes. 4. The Western Province Summer Grazing Scheme was started in 1968 and is similar to the Zambezi Grazing Development Scheme. Seventeen paddocks capable of holding 200 head were built inland from the flood plain. Acceptance of the idea has been poor, however, and there have been problems in maintaining facilities. It has been hard to justify the high inputs for a scheme which will be used only for 5-6 months per year. ANNEX 15 APPENDIX II Page 2 5. The Zambezi Grazing Development Scheme, an extension of The National Beef Development Scheme, is designed to assist cattle keepers on the Zambezi Flood Plain by providing grazing land for use during the rainy season in areas considerably distant from the flood plain edge. Pastures of 200-10,000 acres have been allocated to certain groups or families on an informal basis. This idea has technical merit and quite probably will be accepted by some groups. Funding has only recently begun. Dairy 6. The Rural Milk Production Scheme was started in 1971 with funds from tne World Food Program of the FAQ from the sale of powdered milk. Farmers are loaned money interest free for the supervised purchase of 5-6 crossbred cows. All inputs are subsidized 100% the first year, 50% the next year and not at all after that. The farmers pay back the loan at Kl per cow per week. The conditions of the loan provide for leniency if cows die. Funds are available to enlarge this scheme from the present 100 participants who are located throughout Zambia. The sclheme has been well received. The obvious high input/output ratio is viewed to be outweighed by the benefits of establishing commercial dairying in rural areas and a market demand for fluid milk which will persist and attract other farmers to this enterprise. 7. The Dairy Tenant Scheme was started in 1971 and is being carried out in two locations on State Land. In each location, 20 farmers have 20 cows each. The tenants are charged a subsidized rent which was calculated on the basis of expected production return. The results of this scheme have been poor, principally because expected production was not achieved and even if it had been, tne overall cost of all types of inputs could not be justified in the returns. 8. lhe State Dairy Farms were started in 1971/72. They are essentially government-financed and Government-managed dairy farms. Five of them are financed by RDC through a W1EG loan, and have 200 cows each. Six others are financed by the Government and have 90-250 cows each. Production performance has been poor, but they are economically justified for their demonstration and supply of breeding stock aspects. ANNEX 15 APPENDIX III Page 1 OUTLINE OF TRAINING PROGRAMI OF LIVESTOCK ENTERPRISE MANAGERS 1. The overall objective of the training program is to provide live- stock managers for Zambia's state and commercial ranches. The training would be carried out under conditions of on-the-ranch participation, in cooperation with organized training institutions. 2. During the ranch training period, the trainee should participate actively in the daily work of the ranch and should also be included in short- and long-range decision making. He should learn from this and be able to demonstrate an understanding of such manipulative skills as calving assistance, vaccination and treatment procedures, dehorning and castrating, fence building, and milking. he should be able to demonstrate an understanding of reproduction management, seasonal pasture grazing, culling decisions, replacement selection, major disease problems and emergency health care, and basic machinery maintenance. 3. The trainee should be able to present an acceptable plan for herd growth and demonstrate an understanding of the effect of technical coefficients. In the business management area, he should know how to predict cash flow and labor and capital requirements. He should also demonstrate his ability to plan for future changes in size of enterprise as affected by resource cost and availability and market projections. 4. As much as possible, the above training should take place on the ranch using problem solving techniques. The trainee should have access to written materials on the subjects of cattle and land management. The institu- tional training should be aimed at providing the trainee with an understanding of agricultural scientific knowledge on animal feeding, breeding and disease. This training should use animal science experiments to demonstrate certain principles. The trainee should demonstrate his understanding of the use of published material by preparing a review of information on a topic of practical significance. This total program of ranch and institutional training would require thiree to four years, depending greatly on the agriculture background of the trainee. ANNEX 16 Page i ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY FISHERIES IN ZAMBIA Paragraphs Introduction 1 - 2 Fishing Operations 3 - 6 Fish Resources 7 Lakes 8 - 11 Rivers 12 - 13 Fish Farming 14 Production and Potential Production 15 15 Potential 16 Policy and Institutions Policy Objectives 17 - 18 Institutions 19 - 21 Research and Training 22 - 23 Markets and Prices The Market 24 - 26 Imports 27 Prices 28 Market Organization 29 - 31 Constraints on Development 32 Fishing Techniques 33 Access and Transport 34 Storage 35 Extension Services 36 Credit 37 Price Policy 38 Conclusion 39 ANNE;oduction of about 8,000 tons seed cotton worth K 2.5 million to producers could result. 1/ Tentative correction coefficients for future prices are: 1975: 1.16; 1976: 1.26; 1977: 1.40; 1978: 1.56; 1979: 1.79; 1980: 1.95; and 1981: 2.14. ANNEX 17 Page 2 Costs and An initial 5-year project to reach some 20,000 farmers Phasing: could cost K 10 million (US$15 million). Assuming pro- duction by present and former producers returfr to the 1971-72 level this would satisfy demand in 1981. Any further project would involve expansion of ginning capacity. Project 3: Tea Development (para. 5.18; Annex 13, paras. 43-44) Location: Kawambwa. Description: Partnership with tea company to expand tea estate, establish factory and plan subsequent outgrower develop- ment. Cost and K 650,000 (US$1 million), 1976-78. Phasing: Project 4: Other Crop, Livestock and Social Development in Rural Growth Areas Description: Investments in the rural areas over the next two decades should be directed to perhaps 75 selected Rural Growth Centers (RGCs) and villages in the surrounding Rural Growth Areas (paras. 5.02-5.04; Annex 2, para. 49). Crop development is particularly dependent on improved pricing. Those to be developed by smallholders within the RGA framework would include: (a) maize - most areas, requiring improved input delivery (paras. 5.08-5.09; Annex 13, Paras. 4-6); (b) burley tobacco - in all Provinces except Western and Luapula, to 2,300 ha by mid-1980s. Requires staff training (para. 5.15; Annex 13, para. 25); (c) virginia tobacco - development in second phase of family farming tobacco scheme in Western, Southern and Eastern Provinces (para. 5.15; Annex 13, 22); (d) groundnuts - confectionary nuts in Eastern Province, nuts for oil in all others (para. 5.23; Annex 13, paras. 32-33); (e) sunflower - especially Central and Southern Provinces (Annex 13, para. 38); ANNEX 17 Page 3 (f) coffee - small arabica development, dry-land and irrigated to involve about 1,000 farmers in Northern Province in next decade (para. 5.18; Annex 13, para 42); (g) rice - initially upland rice development in Luapula and Northern Provinces, to 3,500 ha in 5 years: later irrigated in Barotse Flood Plain, Kariba, Kafue, Chambeshi and Lake Bangweulu areas. About K 200,000 (US$312,000) would also be needed for processing units (para. 5.13; Annex 13, paras. 9-10; Annex 14); (h) other components - fish, cattle, hides, fruit, poultry and pigs according to area (Annex 2, paras. 16-48). Assistance to farmers would be based on package programs including intensified extension services, access roads, farmer training, improved marketing and input input supply systems, and processing facilities where needed. (Annex 2, para. 15). Cost and An initial 5-year program to reach 1 million people in Phasing; 75 areas might cost about K 45 million (US$70 million). This includes K 10 million in areas of cotton producition (Project 2) and K 2 million for 4 peri-urban developments (Project 5) but excludes major irrigation investment (Project 7). A second phase program reaching 2-2.5 mil- lion people might cost K 150 million (US$235 million). Project 5: Peri-urban Development (para. 5.05; Annex 2, paras. 42-44) Location: Close to Copperbelt cities and Lusaka: replicatable near Provincial towns. Description: To develop smallholder production of fruit, vegetables, pigs and poultry, dairy and field crops for the urban markets. Components would include roads; surface and groundwater development for irrigation; market links; extension services and input supplies. An inventory of land and water resources of the area is needed, and two initial projects involving 1,000 families each,, could be developed. Costs and (a) detailed surveys, K 200,000 (US$320,000); Phasing: (b) two projects, about K 2.0 million (US$3.2 million) over 5 years. ANNEX 17 Page 4 Project 6: Maize Storage Silos (paras. 5.19-5.20) Location: Line-of-rail and Provincial centers. Description: (a) evaluation of maize storage needs, location and type; (b) construction of storage. Costs and (a) evaluation (see Project 13: K 50,000 (US$70,000) Phasing: (b) construction - depending on study. If silos justified for whole crop and reserve, K 40-60 million (US$62-94 million) in 5-7 year program. Project 7: Irrigation Development (para. 5.32; Annex 14, paras. 104-108) Location: See Map IBRD 11545. Nationwide on major rivers and lakes-- Kafue and Chambeshi--on tributaries and groundwater reservoirs, according to scale and location. Description: Large-scale (over 200 ha) irrigation for company devel- opment of sugar, wheat (possibly with soya beans) and vegetable crops; medium-scale (20-200 ha) mainly on commercial farms; and small-scale (under 20 ha) in RGAs would be for wheat, rice, oilseeds, coffee, fruits and vegetables. Costs and Targets proposed are: Phasing: 1977-81 1982-86 1987-95 Total Area Cost Area Cost Area Cost Area Cost ha K m/n ha K m/n ha K m/n ha K m/n Large-scale* 5-8 8.5- 10-12 17.0- 10-15 17.0- 25-35 42.5- (Annex 14, App XV) 13.6 20.4 25.5 59.6 Medium-scale 3 3.6 4 4.8 10 12.0 1.7 20.4 Small-scale 1 0.7 1 0.7 5 3.5 7 4.9 9-12 12.8- 15-17 22.5- 25-30 41.0 49-59 67.9- 17.9 25.9 84.9 * excluding sugar areas - up to 15,000 ha by 1995. ANNEX 17 Page 5 Project 8: Rural Water Supplies (RWS) (para. 5.33; Annex 14, paras. 70-75, 109-111; Appendix XXII) Location: Countrywide in RGAs. Description: Technical inventory of existing RWS; construction of about 700 hand-dug wells and 300 boreholes a year; and improve- ment and restoration of existing facilities. Costs and K 17.5 million (US$27.3 million) over 10 years (phase Phasing: I 1977-81, K 7.5 million: phase II 1982-86, K 10 million). Project 9: Cattle Watering Points (para. 5.33; Annex 14, paras. 112-113; Appendix XXII) Location: RGAs in Western Province (Mulanga and Siloana Plains). Description: Drilling 120-150 boreholes for cattle water supplies. Cost and K 0.5 million (US$0.8 million), 1977-81. Phasing: Project 10: Rural Industry Development (para. 5.06; Annex 10, paras. 36-38 Location: Rural Growth Centers. Description: (a) Technical assistance to define role of small-scale industry, review policy and institutions affecting its development, and identify products; (b) A lending program for capital investment, and working capital; and technical assistance in a range of small industries. Costs and Dependent on (a).. A national R 3 million (US$4.5 million), Phasing: over 10 years is suggested. Project 11: Tsetse Fly Control (para. 5.27; Annex 15, pnra. _()) Location: See Map IWt) 11r) I 1. Description: Support to animal disease and tsetse control programs, maintaining present lines. Costs and Five-year program: K 2.2 million (US$3.5 million'). Phasing: ANNEX 17 Page 6 Project 12: Application of LANDSAT Imagery (para. 5.35; Annex 14, paras 121-2, Annex XXII) Location: Countrywide Description: Purchase of complete LANDSAT mosaics (initially 2 for February and September), technical assistance and counterpart training in Zambia for groundtruthing, and overseas for interpretation, preparation of overlays, and application to water resource and land planning, agri- cultural data improvement and crop forecasting. Costs and 1 year: K 350,000 (US$535,000). Phasing: Project 13: Fish Marketing Infrastructure (para. 5.39; Annex 16, paras. 32-39) Location: Fishing areas, associated with RGAs, and in major markets. Description: Access roads, storage, market infrastructure and enhanced extension services for fishing and fish processing. Details require investigation which would be included in initial phase. Cost and In excess of K 5 million (US$7.8 million). Phasing: Project 14: Studies and Planning Activities Description, Costs and Phasing: Apart from technical research requirements the mission identified a number of studies and related planning activities which are needed to further policy formulation or project identification and imple- mentation. In many cases funding for these could become a component of a project. In total identified studies could cost nearly K 900,000 (US$1.4 million). (a) Study of the Irrigation Potential of the Chambeshi Valley, close to TAZARA. Includes soil-survey, surface and groundwater investi- gation, and project identification. One and one-half years, K 100,000 (US$150,000) (Annex 14, para. 120; Appendix XXII); (b) Preparation of a Kafue Basin W4ater Plan as a basis for policy for managing the river's water resource. One year, K 160,000 (US$250,000). To be followed by a Study for the Development of the Kafue Flats. Three years, K 775,000 (US$1.2 million) (Annex 14, para. 120; Appendix XXII); ANNEX 17 Page 7 (c) Water Resource Data Collection. To include establishment of a central archive and mapping of Zambia's groundwater potential. K 150,000 (US$240,000) (Annex 14, para. 121; Appendix XXII); (d) Sugar Expansion. Study of the location of a further 100,000 ton factory and estate for development from 1979. One and one--half years, K 130,000 (US$200,000) to start in 1976 (para. 5.17; Annex 13, para. 46). Linked to study (a); (e) Siting of Expansion to Textile Plant. Study advantages and disadvantages of siting a textile plant in Eastern Province rather than expanding Kafue textiles. Six months, K 40,000 (US$60,000) (para. 5.14; Annex 13, para. 19); (f) Maize Storage Needs. An evaluation of the type, location and quantity of Zambia's maize storage needs. The study should be' linked to the Bank's Regional Maize Price Policy study. Maize meal stock holding policy also needs appraisal. Nine months, K 50,000 (US$70,000) (para. 5.20); Annex 13, para. 4; Annex 8, para. 131); (g) Cassava for Starch or Stock Feed. Study of technical, production and market feasibility of commercial cassava production close to TAZARA. Six months, K 40,000 (US$60,000) (Annex 13, para. 51); (h) Review of Road and Rail Tariffs. To provide basis for revision of tariff structure to encourage agricultural production and reduce transport costs. Should include traffic study embracing all para- statal operations (para. 4.42; Annex 12, para. 39). Six months, K 30,000 (US$45,000); (i) Agricultural Credit. Farm economics research into the small- holders' need for credit. This should be linked to an internal review of Agricultural Finance Corporation (AFC) and other parastatal and private credit operations for smallholders. One and one-half years, K 65,000 (US$100,000) (para. 5.04; Annex 7, paras. 28-39); (j) Commercial Dairy Production. A detailed study of the economics of dairy production by commercial and emergent farmers to identify ways of encouraging investment in dairy herds and dairying facilities to secure long-run production goals, as a guide to policy formulation and project preparation. Nine months, K 50,000 (US$70,000) (Para. 5.29, Annex 15, 39). ANNEX 18 Page i ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND HU11L SECTOR SURVEY DEVTSOPMENT AND INCOIYE DISTRIBUTION IN A DUAL ECONOMY: A DYNAUMIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR ZA1'BTA Paragraph(s) I. Introduction 1 - 7 II. Assumptions and the Model Formulation 8 - 34 General Assumptions 8 - 12 Yearly Output Levels and Resource Allocations 13 - 17 Personal Income Distribution 18 - 20 Private Expenditure Patterns 21 - 22 Government Revenue and Expenditure 23 - 24 Capital Accumulation 25 - 29 Migration and Demographic Shifts 30 - 32 Solution Procedure 33 - 34 III. The Basic Case and General Policy Experiments 35 - 57 The Basic Case 40 - 44 Alternative Indirect Tax Policies 45 - 48 Constant Tariff and Excise Duties 47 Tariff Reduction 48 Alternative Government Expenditure Policies 49 - 53 Increased Public Consumption 50 - 52 Increased Public Savings 53 Experiments with Exogenous Parameters 54 - 58 Reduced Copper Prices 55 - 56 Reduced Urban Profits 57 - 58 IV. Alternative Policies and Agriculture 59 - 75 Increased Investment in Small-scale Farming 62 - 64 Increased Investment in Commercial Farming 65 - 67 Price Subsidies to Small-scale Farmers 68 - 70 Concentrated Investment in Small-scale Farming in Rural Growth Areas 71 - 75 V. Summary: Welfare and Policy Implications 76 - 80 ANNE X 18 Page ii * Tables: 18.1: The Basic Case 18.2: Constant Tariffs, Taxes and Subsidy Rates 18.3: Gradual Reduction in Tariffs 18.4: Public Consumption Growing at 8.5% (21% above the basic case) 18.5: Public Marginal Propensity to Save at 50% 18.6: Long-term Relative Price of Copper Reduced 15 18.7: Urban Profit Rate Reduced From 22% to 18% 18.8: Ipcreased Investment in Smaall Farmers 18.9: Increased Investment in Commercial Farming 18.10: Price Subsidies to Small Farmers 18.11: Concentrated Investment in Rural Growth Areas 18.12: Ranking of Policies for v = 2, d 8% * Each Table,compripea subtables showing: (a) La,bor Force Distribution (b), Pre-.Tax per Worker Income Levels (c) Migration Rates (d) Distribution of Population (e) National Output and Its Composition (f) Disposition of National Product ANNEX 18 Page 1 ZAMBIA AGRICJLTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY DZVELOPDENT AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN A DUAL ECONOMY: A DYiAMIC SIMULATION M0ODEL FOR ZAMBIA* I. Introduction 1. Development theorists have long made use of the simplifying paradigm of the dual economy. With this theory, the key structural characteristic of developing countries is the dualism in the economy between a traditional, relatively poor, mostly agricultural sector and a modern, relatively rich, mostly industrial sector. Seen in this light, policy discussions should focus most strongly on the implications of the linkages and characteristics of the two sectors. This approach to economic development has its roots in Ricardo and Marx and has been repopularized in recent decades by the work of Lewis, Fei and Ranis, Marglin, Sen and many others. 2. Although rich in general policy conclusions, specific policy applications are rare. Numerical economy-wide forecasting and program- ming models have emphasized other important constraints (e.g., savings and foreign exchange limitation, intermediate industrial demands, human capital, etc.) in comparison to dual economy factors.l/ This tendency is due both to data rarely being collected with dual economy models in mind, and to the development of the numerical models out of Keynsian and neo-classical growth models. 3. Dual economy models have, however, found a real use in the literature on project evaluation in developing countries. Both the Little-Mirrlees and UNIDO methods are based on use of shadow prices implicitly derived from optimization of a dynamic dual economy model. Unfortunately, in practice partial equilibrium estimates of the para- meters (principally, the shadow prices of labor, capital, and foreign exchange) are utilized, putting the whole project evaluation procedure in question. * This research was conducted by Charles R. Blitzer of the Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California and the Bank's Development Research Center as part of the Agricultural Sector Mission to Zambia and the Bank's research project on shadow pricing and project evaluation. The specific facts, methods of analysis, and conclusions are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect official World Bank positions. The author is extremely grateful for the assistance he received from numerous colleagues, particularly from Per Ljung, Martin Wolf, Hyung Kim, John Cleave, Bela Belassa, Clive Bell, and Alan Manne. l/ A notable exception is the study of Japan by A.C. Kelly, J.U. williamson - and H.J. Cheetham, Dualistic Economic Development: Theory and History. U. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1972. ANNEX 18 Page 2 4. Here, we broaden the use of dual economy models by attempting to construct a numerical application designed explicitly for simultaneous derivation of long-term macroeconomic forecasts and shadow prices. Particular attention is paid to the policy implications of alternative income distribution objectives. It is important to note that the mo(Iel is not explicitly maximizing. Rather it simulates the development process under a number of different assumptUons regarding government policy and exogenous factors. 5. Zambia is the country for which this dual economy model has been developped. Through exploitation of its mining resources (mainly copper), Zambia maintains one of the highest levels of national income per capita in Africa. Especially since Independence, its industrial and urban sectors have grown dramatically. On the other hand, the Zambian economy remains highly dualized, with the majority of the population living in rural areas where income per capita averages less than one quarter the level in the modern sectors. Indeed, most of the rural population is engaged in subsistence farming. Not only is income low in agriculture, but growth in food production has been sluggish and irregular. 6. Reduction of income gaps between rural and urban areas and increased agricultural output are key policy objectives of the Zambian government. The dynamic model of Zambia (DYZAM) is designed as a tool planners could use in studying the impact of alternative policy packages. Althouigh DYZAM is an economy-wide model, the major emphasis throughout is on income and production in the rural sectors. The other major focus is on the medium- and long-term effects of various public policies. Hence, short-run adjustment problems are largely neglected. 7. The model itself is reviewed in general terms in Section II. In Section III, a number of alternative macroeconomic policies are compared; these deal largely with taxation, pricing, and investment policy. More microeconomic experiments, simulating more specific agri- cultural strategies, are discussed in Section IV.1/ II. Assumptions and the Model Formulation General Assumptions 8. The typical theoretical dual economy model postulates a two- sector (traditional and modern) economy producing two goods (rural and l/ A more complete algebraic formulation and development of the model, along with the shadow price and welfare implications of DYZAM are available from the Development Research Center of the Bank. ANNEX 18 Page 3 urban) having two consuming classes (rural and urban workers) and one savings class (profit earners or government). This structure clearly is too narrow for any real country application. A broader disaggre- gation has been adopted for DYZAM to more accurately reflect Zambian reality, while remaining sufficiently aggregative to be estimatable and computable. 9. In the model, it is assumed that the Zambian economy produces three goods: a rural good (highly aggregative and largely agricultural), an urban good (even mcre highly aggregative), and a mining good (mostly copper). In order to focus more heavily on production, income levels, and dualism within agriculture itself, the rural economy is subdivided into three producing sectors. The first, referred to as "traditional agriculture", incorporates subsistence farming and small farmers marketing only a small share of their production. Roughly half the population is supported by the income generated in traditional agriculture. The second, referred to as "emergent agriculture", includes small-scale Zambian farmers who earn most of their income through marketing their produce. Finally, there is the large-scale commercial agriculture sector. Although relatively small in terms of employment, this sector produces about 40% of all marketed agricultural produce. In total then, there are five producing sectors in the model: traditional agriculture, emergent agriculture, commercial agriculture, urban, and mining. 10. To further emphasize incorne distribution (and to improve the savings and demand projections), the economy is divided into seven income classes. The first five correspond to the workers in each sector (i.e., traditional farmers, emergent faxmers, comnmercial farm workers, urban workers, mining workers). The other two refer to the high income elite of the economy who receive portions of the returns to capital, viz., the Zambian bourgeoisie and foreigners. 11. The next set of assumptions deals with commodity prices. Throughout, we assume that all three goods are tradeable and that Zambia, by itself, cannot change the relative world terms of trade. Thus, the economy faces fixed international prices in each year, although these may change exogenously year-to-year1/ Although it is not entirely accurate to do away ;'ith non-traded goods, the computational and data collection benefits of this E, h_mplification make it a useful first approximation.2/ dith given international prices, domestic producers' 1/ W4hile this may be a reasonable assumption for agricultural and urban goods, it is quite possible tZa. Zambia could affect the world price of copper by adjustirg its o-wn inverntories. Since DYZAM is ill- suited for use in choosing cptimal inventory levels, we assume that the country will continrue to act as a price taker and sell its output at goinig prices. Llternative policies could be easily simulated as well. 2' Most of the data for DYZM4 were collected as part of the Agricultural and Rural Sector Survey Mission. Time limitations precluded any significant development of new data sources. ANNEX 18 Page a prices are set by tariff levels and domestic consumers' prices by tariffs and excise taxes. Therefore, government indirect taxation policy, together with world markets, determine all domestic commodity prices. 12. On the basis of consumer and producer behavior, as well as on government policy, the model calculates sectoral resource allocations (of capital and labor), production and income levels, consumption and investment demands, government revenue and expenditure, and inter- sectoral demographic movements for each year. The solution for any given year determines certain initial conditions for the next and consequently the model can simulate Zambian development forward in time until its underlying assumptions are no longer sufficiently valid to produce realistic projections.l/ In the following subsections, we consi- der each step more explicitly. Yearly Output Levels and Resource Allocations 13. Consider the agricultural sectors first. It is postulated that all three sectors operate along on the eame Cobb-Douglas production function, relating output to labor and capital inputs.2/ This amounts to assuming the productivity differentials are largely due to different choices of technique, which in turn are caused by various market imperfections and rigidities. Most importantly, the capital stock in each agricultural sector is fixed during any one year. 14. Wages paid to hired labor in commercialfarming is also set exogenously on the basis of minimum wage regulations. We assume that commercial farmers maximize their profits, given fixed producers' prices and capital stock. This process determines the employment level and output level for the sector. It is postulated that emergent farmers neither hire labor from outside their subsector nor seek outside employ- ment.3/ Thus, both labor and capital usage are set and output determined. The labor force in traditional agricul-ture is the residual between the total agricultural labor force and employment in commercial and emergent agriculture. 15. Employment and output in the urban sector are calculated in the same way as with commercial agriculture. The producers' price and the nominal wage are pre-determined; output is a function of labor and capital inputs. Given that the capital stock is fixed by past investment decisions, labor is hired until profits are maximized. 1/ Here we report on simulations for a twenty-year period, 1972-1992. 2/ ,!ith this formulation, land is treated implicitly as a surplus resource. This is supported by Ljung's finding that farm size is an almost linear function of other factors. Per Ljung: Migration and 'Rural Development, draft report, July 1974. In commercial agricul- ture, acreage is usually limited. 3/ Rbural services are treated as part of agricultural production and are thus included. ANNEX 18 Page 5 16. Mining is handled in a somewhat different fashion. First, we assume that there is little scope for capital-labor substitution in production; capital, labor, and intermediate input requirements are proportional to output levels.l/ Output levels cannot now be determined by explicit profit maximization; rather, we suppose that the sector will follow a long-term growth strategy formulated by government planners. This strategy can then be one of the policies tested by the model. 17. While full employment is postulated for agriculture as a whole (although mostly at low productivity ), DYZAM allows for open unemploy- ment in urban areas. Unemployment is computed residually as the diiffe{rence between the total urban work force and employment in the mining and urban sectors.2/ Thus, the urban "informal" sector is included neither in national income nor in employment calculations. Personal Income Distribution 18. It is a comparatively easy task to compute the total gross income which accrues to each of the five "worker" classes, once output (and employment) levels are known. Traditional and emergent farmers earn the full value of their production (i.e., as if they "owned" the capital used in their production activities). Total income earned by commercial farm, urban, and mining workers is simply employment times the respective fixed wage. 19. Calculation of the distribution of the rest of the producers' value of all production is more complicated. Consider the share going to the Zambian bourgeoisie. They ale treated as partial owners o-f the coimercial farming and urban sectors, and their total gross income is det.enrined by their share of profits (returns to capital) in each sector. Foreigners have a 49% interest in mining, as well as considerable investments in. commercial agriculture and the urban sector. Remaining ownership shares in these three sector belong to the government dirHctly and indirectly.3/ 20. Net personal income can then be derived by applying the average corporate tax rates to profits and the relevant income tax rates to all gross personal incomes. The net incomes of each group can then be 1/ Although these ratios are fixed for any one year, they change over time, reflecting technical progress and long-term choice of technique. Similarly, technical progress terms are included in the Cobb-Douglas production functions used for determining output in the other sectors. 2/ The total urban labor force is fixed during each year, but changes over time in response to population growth and rural-urban migratior. This process is reviewed below. 3/ Indirect governmental profits are those accruing to parastatals. Hiere, we aggregate net parastatal income together with direct government revenues. ANNEX 18 Page 6 invested (in the form of purchases of capital goods), spent for consump- tion (in the form of agricultural or urban goods), or (in the case of foreigners) repatriated abroad. Private Expenditure Patterns 21. The parameters of an extended linear expenditure system have been estimated for each of the seven income classes.l/ The system is "extended" in that savings levels are determined as a function of con- sumers' prices, as well as income levels. These relationships determine per capita consumption of agricultural and urban goods within each income class; these can then be summed over the population to provide projections of total consumption demand. Similarly, total private savings are the aggregation of individual savings levels.2/ Foreign remittances by non-Zambians are computed as part of their expenditure system. 22. Since producers' and consumers' prices can differ, total private demand can be used to calculate excise tax and net import duty revenue. Together they comprise the government's net indirect tax proceeds. It is important to note that the implicit excise taxes or duties can be negative, as they currently are for agricultural goods taken as a whole. Government Revenue and Expenditure 23. Net government revenue is composed of its direct and indirect share of profits, direct taxes (on corporate and personal incomes), and indirect taxes (on imports and consumption goods).3/ In the experiments reported on here, we assume that the consolidated public budget, current and capital accounts, is balanced in each year. Thus, official foreign loans are assumed negligeable in net terms. Since government revenue in Zambia is highly dependent on the world price of copper (which fluctuates widely), this implies that expenditures also fluctuate. 1/ These parameters are the marginal budget shares and propensity tot save, and "subsistance" levels of consumption. Those all differ among the groups. See C. Lluch and R. Williams, Cross-country Demand and Savings Patterns: an Application of ELAS. Review of Economics and Statistics (forthcoming). 2/ Note that traditional-iand emergent farmers and high income groups are the only savers; workers do not save. 3/ de refer to "net" revenue since any taxation of parastatals would cancel out and is therefore ignored. ANNEX 18 Page 7 Future refinements of the model could easily allow for more constant public expenditures, making use of foreign borrowing and changes in foreign exchange reserve holdings. 24. In DYZAMI, all net government revenue is spent on urban goods, for both current public consumiption and savings. In the basic case, discusoed in Section III, public consumption grows at a fixed annual rate of 7%. The remainder is allocated to savings. Alternative policies are possible and several experiments have been attempted using fixed marginal savings propensities and alternative consumption growth rates. Note that with steady growth in public consumption, the government's lnvestment budget must bear the entire burden of fluctuating revenues. Given the steady demands on current expenditures, this is, perhaps, the most realistic view. Capital Accumulation 25. So far we have concentrated on the statics of the model-- income determination and resource allocation in any given year. To obtain the solution, -.ie had to postulate given capital availability in each sector at the start of the year. Investment allocations, in turn, determine capital stocks in future years. Therefore, in order to form the dynamic linkages between any two consecutive years, the model has to allocate public and private savings into each of the five sectors. 26. Consider first the allocation of private savings. de assume that the savings generated in the commercial farming and urban sectors are re-invested in proportion to the proportions generated in each sector. For example, if 15% of the savings of the Zambian bourgeoisie is earned in commercial agriculture, 15% of new investment is made in that sector. Similarly, the savings of traditional and emergent farmers is invested entirely in those sectors.l/ 27. Investment in the mining sector is handled exogenously in accordance with the production plan discussed above. Since capital requirements are projected exogenously, and the ownership pattern is fixed, both foreign and public investment in mining can be predetermined. Any foreign profits above this amount are then repatriated. 28. The final, and most interesting, issue is the allocatiorn of the rest of public savings between the urban and agricultural sectors, and within agriculture itself. Public policy here is of crucial 1/ We discuss below how demographic movements affect the allocation of capital between traditional and emergent farming. ANNEX 18 Page 8 importance in determining the sectoral pattern of development and future demographic shifts and income distribution. In the following sections, considerable attention is paid to alternative investment strategies, particularly iithin agriculture itself. 29. Once public investment policy is decided, next year's sectoral capital stocks are known, as are their ownership patterns. These in turn are used in computing income levels and resource allocations in the future. Migration and Demographic Shifts 30. As we have seen, the sectoral distribution of the population plays a key role in determining the level and composition of output and demand, urban unemployment, etc. In particular, to solve DYZAIM during any year, total urban and total rural labor forces and the number of emergent farmers must be known. For the initial year (1972) these are taken as data; for all later years, they are determined endogenously on the basis of demographic and economic behavior. 31. The two most important population movements which the model simulates are growth in the ranks of emergent farmers and the steady migration of labor from agriculture to the urban areas. Both phenomena are explained and projected on economic rather than social or political grounds. The rural-urban migration rate, in any year, is taken as an increasing function of the ratio of expected urban to expected rural income, and of the urban employment rate for that year.l/ Together with the natural urban population growth rate, this determines total urban and total rural populations for the following year. 32. At the same time that some traditional farmers are moving to cities, others are becoming emergent farmers through adoption of more modern techniques, planting a higher proportion of marketable crops, and gradual accumulation of capital and land. The yearly rate of this rural-rural migration (or more properly transformation) is dependent on the average income level of emergent farmers (at higher expected income, commercial farming becomes more attractive) and traditional farmers (at higher income, capital is accumulated more rapidly). Together with the overall growth rate of the agricultural labor force (computed using the rural-urban migration relations), the rate of rural-rural migration is used in DYZAM to calculate the number of emergent farmers in any year. 1/ This formulation is similar to that of M.T. Todaro, A Model of Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. American Economic Review. 1969. ANNEX18 Page 9 Solution Procedure 33. Given the behavioral and technical parameters of the model and initial labor and capital configurations, DYZAM can be solved yearly once government taxation and expenditure policies are specified. In each year, the economy is represented by a set of simultaneous equations; being small, the set is relatively easy to solve. The solution for any one year provides the dynamic linkages (such as capital accumulation and migration flows) which provide the next year's initial conditions. In this sense, the model is recursive, solving each period separately and moving from one year to the next sequentially. 34. DYZAM has been programmed for use with a time-shared computer system. This allows the user to quickly attempt a large number of experiments in 'a very short time span at low cost.l/ III. The Basic Case and General Policy Experiments 35. The Government influences the development process through its taxation, pricing, and expenditure policies. Domestic relative prices play a key role since they directly affect profit and investment rates in the agricultural and urban sectors, the income levels of Zambian farmers (and thereby rural-urban income distribution), sectoral output levels, and the demand patterns (and hence the foreign trade pattern). Since Zambia faces fixed international prices for all three goods, producers' and consumers' prices are set in each year by the government's indirect tax choices (tariffs and excise duties). World relative prices are projected independently and specified before each DYZAM simulation.2/ In all experiments the world prices for agricultural and mining goods are taken from historical data. Prices for later years must be assumed. 36. For the basic case, we suppose that relative (in comparison with urban goods) price of food will rise until 1980, and fall slowly thereafter. It is of course difficult, if not impoEsible, to forecast future mineral prices. Rather than attempt to guess at future fluctua- tion patterns, a constant long-run price is specified for the basic case; this price was chosen at a level equal to that in 1972. 37. The major impact of Zambia's indirect taxation structure (-ncluding implied subsidy rates) comes through the allocative effects of changing domestic prices, rather than through changes in government revenue levels. Thus, we suppose that indirect tax rates are chosen with pricing, rather than revenue, objectives in mind. In the basic 1/ Indeed, the cost of a 30-year simulation is less than US$ 0.75. 2/ Since we are ignoring the impact of general international infla- tion, only relative prices matter and one good must be chosen aE a numeraire. In this model, the world price of the urban good is held constant while those for mining and agricultural goods vary. ANNEX 18 Page 10 case, it is supposed that the government attempts to hold domestic relative prices (for producers and consumers) of urban and agricultural goods constant. Since world prices are moving over time, this policy implies a constantly changing tariff and excise tax structure.l/ This policy seems to correlate rather well with recent practice in Zambia; the government has tried hard to insulate both farmers and consumers from the rise in the world relative price of food. 38. On the expenditure side, the government must select current and capital budgets, as well as allocate investable resources among the five sectors.2/ For the basic case, we suppose that the government succeeds in holding growth in public consumption to 7% per year.3/ 'ithin the investment budget, v% of public savings (net of mining investment ) is allocated to traditional and emergent agriculture, 4.5% to large-scale government farming, and the remainder to the urban sector. ahile the government earns returns from the latter two sectors (through para- statals), we assume that the small-scale Zambian farmers receive the imputed returns of government investment in their sectors. 39. Direct taxation of profits and personal income is a key policy tool for affecting income distribution, both between individual classes and the private and public sector. In the basic case, the rate structure is held constant at 1974 levels. Zambian income taxes are already quite progressive and high. Unless the government opts for a major reorgan- ization of ownership and income pattern in the modern sectors of the economy, it is not likely that they will be increased substantially. For this reason, the policy experiments discussed in this section do not focus on changes in rates of direct taxation.4/ In this section, we examine the numerical projections for the basic case and six alterna.te formulations. The experiments focus on general government policies (such as indirect tax rates and the division of government expenditure between consumption and investment) and several key exogenous parameters (such as world price projections and productivity changes). All runs of the model cover the years 1972 through 1992; value indexes are in 1972 prices. 1/ In the model, there are no tariffs or excise taxes on mining goods. Rather, profits are taxed directly for revenue purposes. 2/ Since we assume a predetermined plan for mining, the allocation problem is reduced to the urban and agricultural sectors. 3/ Government consumption is entirely in the form of urban goods. Public purchases of agricultural goods are treated as income and price subsidies to individual consumers. hi In practice, it would be simple to use DYZAM to simulate the impact of rate changes. ANNEX 18 Page 11 The Basic Case 140. Results for the basic case are summarized in Table 18.1. At the top of the table, public price and expenditure policies are specified. Part l(a) contains projections of sector employment and the rate of urban employment. In terms of employment, the most rapidly growing sector is emergent agriculture. The labor force in traditional agriculture actually declines slowly due to rural-rural and rural-urban migration. Although employment is growing at 4% a, year in the urban sector, rural-urban migration leads to even more rapid growth in the total labor force, implying increasing urban unemployment. 41. This process of demographic transformation is seen more clearly in l(c) which presents the yearly migration rates. Rhral-urban migration declines even though the gap between urban and traditional farming income continues to grow (see l(b)) because employment rates are falling in the urban sector. After the employment rate peaks around 1984, migration rates begin to rise again. 42. The transformation process of traditional becoming emergent farmers accelerates steadily since income levels for Zambian farmers are growing and the spread between traditional and emergent is widening. At first glance the rates of growth of income per worker in small-scale Zambian farming may look somewhat highi, especially for traditional farming. The major factors underlying these results, is an optimistic projection for efficiency improvements, 2.5p per year, and the small steady allocation ( ol) of government investment. If these projections are not attained, it is likely that the reduced income growth of sub- sistance farmers would lead to accelerated rural-urban migration, higher unemployment, and increased reliance on imported food. <3. The implied demographic shifts are summarized in l(d). Here we project that the proportion of the population supported by traditional agriculture -aill fall from one-half to one-quarter by 1992, and tie percentage supported by emergent farming will increase from one-eigth to one-cuarter. mThe ajor national income accounts projections are summarized in Tables l(e) and l(f). 3oth :in terms of prolucers' and world prices, n:ationa1 income grows rapidly. These projections are also optimistic regard-ing the recuired investmen-t ef'iort. The average savings rate nc3re2ses very slowly, allo-ing for D rise in consumlption alnost as rapid ;a ror GNTP. ',lthough growth irn he urban sector is forecast 50% higher Lh_-n a2n agricultu-re, the disparity is small in comparison to most countries. This result, der:ived f1rom behavioral and policy assumptions, saerns to support the notion that Zambia has some comparative advantage in agriculture. ANN3X 18 Page 12 Table 18.1: TH.Z BASIC CASE 'GOVEFRNMENT I NVE : TMENT F'OL ICr, (i)-IFtRRE: .DOF C OQ. 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V - r '9 99:7 It':? 11811 18< 31:~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~7 Z:16 i < ,T-- v '- ' f '- -c ,, ,i? ;s-1 1;5-I 1e:v S 6t't 9 t' - uAJ'| 95: 7 _ ~; = 9 t . r' .866.1T :- | 1 r . t IK 5,5- :tI'CaRO1- r : t' 1- Ei Ip8 - -lHiDi -AD .uSJ3JA13d -id 'UIbi ->lkC-iLi-DHi fI 1o0 IdlVld-Od 0 30 Dl0 Ili7:1Idl>I'I (P)l ('P,cvuooyT7gT aTqr{ CT 02&1 ST TINNY ANNIX 18 Page 14 Allternative Indirect Tax Policies 45. In the basic case, indirect taxes are continually adjusted, year-by-year, to maintain constant domestic relative prices for consuners as well as producers. Since agricultural prices have risen rapidly in recent years,this policy has implied higher explicit and implicit subsidies in order to maintain low food prices. As long as the world relative price of agricultural products continues to rise (until 1980 in our examples), more and more potential government revenue will be diverted for subsidies, at the expense of investments in agriculture and the urban sectors and farmers' incomes. On the positive side, the constant price policy does tend to hold dow-m nominal wages, which in the short-run, at least, is a stimulus to the urban sector. In addition, there may well be non-quantifiable benefits from maintain- ing relative price stability. 46. To examine more closely the importance of indirect tax policy, two alternatives are reviewed here. Both consider policies which allow domestic prices to move together with world prices. 47. Constant tariff and excise duties. First, consider the case of maintaining constant tariff and excise du'ies; here domestic relative prices change in proportion to changes in world relative prices. The results of this policy experiment are presented in Table 18.2. In comparing these projections with those for the basic case (Table 18.1), it is immediately obvious that the entire development pattern is much improved. There is more rapid growth in both agricultural and urban sectors; incomes of Zambian farmers improve most dramatically. The root of these improvements is not hard to trace. ANNEX 18 Page 15 Table 18.2: CONSTAN'T TARIPFFS, TAXES AND SUBSIDY RAT.,S (i) E.O'3IERHMFriT IN'E T1TMEHT FOL IC ' :H3FE'E: OF GO'dERNtENT I N"E 7TNFr-4T I nT.'E TMEHT I R LIFE:H 7 FEC TOP .9 01 A H'.'E --TMENT I C i:OTEPCF I- IL H iIF IGPILTU'E I i V.'E TIIErIT Tr l; -iE:IRri FFiGFICULTURE = , 15 2(a) LhBOF FOPCE Tir-' Tru7 ATIOJ In1t THOLLHI'.ir 1'97-? A+9# tj 1 9 :B 1930 1934 1 9: :--: 1 9>2 ItTE 3HOi;TiH RhTE 1. ,.-r.3s- ,c:Ci: .u.B' ';O -92 4.34 49,1s-,, -.3? % 4 4't'- rK. ->- 2. 15,,. ttlil 2.r,7 . 9r , ' -.-.l.:- 3:64 . 9 51 4F. ,.= ^r . 5 .71 t- ,r, J4* ,.:5. fu*ifl 3:57., ilr,1 41' 9.? 5'K t,3 -, r,_ 2-1 .1?t 777, ,.6 . 5. 15 5, :1r. ,.657 411A. 5:lr 49?- .,t.ll 5- 3. .5, r 94.4 44-. .- 5:1, ,53= 4, 99 6. I O . 0'Z'' 13:. 2r 1 4.95.- 1?.411:-: 1'tl .l74 7 c FOlls A F EFF'E 7 Eni V -OP R!LFF OF E r 'l Tr FP I T r OrAH1L HF'I FOr;IL _ F EF FE EHjT ''[i|F FFC F -E I HA EMlEP3ErT HFOP I POllI -: PEFF'E EHT EtF1F [l, MENJT JI H OriMEFf- I fiL PE1T I 4l 4 FEPPE:Er4T: LFF.FiJ -Et-TOF EilIP onEriT FO S c EFFE:EtH'- TOTFL ltF1Ftr1 LFBF FOF:Et FOdtlt F5 PEF'F E'-EI4T - EF C~EHSTFIE [1F UFBFre4i LIHEMF LO|riEnlT 2(b) FFE-TF.: FFF l,OGFi EF 1t4145lE LE.EL l tH THOl:l 3 tJn' [F 1 9U '- I H 419. 19.-:1l 19,5:4 19w:: 1994 PE iE3 4 ITH FTE 1. .10 I:-. , ~:2 ., _4 111 . 4t 2 . -Iil ,-: _ . St' .411 .45:.6 .5r5.-. - : - - ,-- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----- - - - - - - - - --s- Z 4 ;' '- --5 r h. *''s' -l .-' 1 ' - 1 .FL3 .:3 1. 1 -.EPF 1 E3 3- .i S t 1 .F - 7 ' 1 Ac FI F' 19 F EFPFE TErT - I H OFhF I RC TF P M IT I i FRP I FOIl _ FEFFE EHtT I-iTIF 1E 11I ErlFTiISEH 90FL F-Ogl 54 FPEF F E - EN4T - OIFOFiN IHT EHritF 1C I PL HEM i FPOl 4 FEPPF-Et4'- LTTF^E I-i iFRT;FI -EC-TFF 2(c) ri'3;EFFTIOH FFTE~ FEFC EHSTeF,nF OF LhFOFl Fi::iF E I Hj rFeE:[ITIFrsL i;P F4C IE MFIPTUE E 3 ?I'5- 1'~ ?, 1b :F - T A. A4 3 9:I: 1 ? 'F TYP F'E O!F ; 1 1 'E FHT T Ont 1. . 11-ll 1 -:44 ,.-:47 _,5::, 2. ~ 3.54r. TL3 cIrlEFOF FhF'1- 2. -3. '95- 1 . 5 'CI 1i .41I .1_'E1 - .H TOF 'LPPIT- r RE:H TCT ANNEX 18 Page 16 Table 18 .2 (cont ' d.) 2(d) DIm TF:IJT._TION OF POFULFiTI ON K IN THOU 1R-N[ A9rC PEAFPCENET OF TGTAL' 1. C_ 2 .0 5; 2117.44,2 1 , 1 1 F , I _ 1 1 14. 4 4 --L_-11-t1-,-1---i-.:---11-.---I,-t I---1 1 .u-- 1 _ .B-t-42 -:-.-1 5-'-L D - , - - 2. 5, .1:1 ..14 7 4 . 77 1 01 1 1 1 .I.474 l 11..:L t' 4 ..1 2024 .217 3. 12 :2:2 .: 4 t2' t5 13 . 1 4 1822 0` 21 .;9-DL 1 ,! .t-.' 32 2 I .74. 4 .6 4. .1,5 1 1_:, . : 1 9 . 4 . 6 5 . . 1 LD F 1 r D . I B , . . 1 w U-- 1-1 ~~~~~~~~~j `5J 4 .1 6. .c91 .L1 ._477 .3t:. ..3z7 .444 .1 4 FObII 1 HAlD 4 FEPPE ENT POF' Iri TFPrA ASPI PO;.l: I AtD 5 PEFPE-:ENT FOF INr EMEPG AS;P F'O'l-: 3- AND 6 FEPPE :E!T FOFP J r UPBFRA ECTOFP 2(e) RATTONAL 51-ITPI-'T ArNi IT.- [OMFOC ITION I tl TILLION:- OF i 7 L hIACHA-, 19-2 1'97 19C 1 ?:B4 19- 1 5 AYE IFO1,ITH FATF 1. 1.:4 .5C 231I .47B :9. 75 ' 73.974 4Z95.fiT F54.541 6.54 2 . 7 55. , |1 10_t . 16 t1 1 4E5 .2I? : 24 . 14 254 .543 414 11, I I 3 . 4 L55. UO 561,,s .9?0 1 61tC. ?1 761'g .23O 9? '?27 .722L 1 127I.65 t9lL. |. F 1). 1D1A .2D51] 162.-.415 221 4.1:? -934 .133 : -: 9 F-. : 5 46 9 .49 7. -: 1 5, 165 4--4: 1t . 60 .,3 .1 4 . 1 .45 1 7.1' PLII' 1 PEPFE ENTT 91FIC IILTIIFPL i-D001- FOI- I F'F 'FE;ENT- IJFItt SOOtD- p:OI s: PEPPE-ENT- MI`JrUGt4I G-OCD FPll, 4 PEPFE ENUT INF AiT DOME-TIC PFF[11.i1-EP:- P!I-EE FPO1I 5 FEFPE'E Tr r4FN T hIrIPRLE, MFJ FET PPI':E?: 2(f ) r1:- F O:rITOr4 OF HATTIOrIRL FL PROIUCT lAT NlFlE`FT PPICE-:. I t' ILLIOW OF 1OF ?5 dHCHi I 1 17 14, F'?3f1-1 19?-.49-:-: 1'9'J- A9.E .FOI.,ITH FATE 1 ~~4 406 749. ?~~~~~~? 955 .357 121:? .237 15W. 076 2~~~~~~~~-.135.236 6 .1 I 2 . 5r1 F 34?.09 4 .- .4 611-: 4 3: t ., f : . Z 1 5' 111, . f . F- 3 L ,'1 4 5 7 4 1 5 .: 57 .1 4 ::1 ..476 1 1 4 .5 1 597 . 1 4 . _ 5 . .2I6I7. ~' 1~1 ~ - 5 5.516 4 1 . 7: 49; .4 u1 5:-: 64 4. 1 7 5:.: ::.t . 140 263 1 -.t .- F : 14 3- .67 0 4 1 4 . 31 FOI. I EPPFE-EINT- PFI dTE CGWl'rmlFTIOr4 F'Oll- PEFRPEIEN Et FUIPLIC -Ct C i-lPTTOrN POI,! EPPE :ENTC SF02.7- 9FAPITAL FOFMATION FO,Il 4 PEPEP.EZENT FOOEIGrN FEMITTArNFE- RPD,' 5 PEPPEE.ENT: TOTAL PEP -9F4JTA CON-LMPTIOrN ANNEX 18 Page 17 Since taxes and subsidies are held constant, required food subsidies are substantially reduced; sines public consumption is growing at an exogenous rate, all the additional government revenue is available for investment. This in turn is translated into more rapid growth across the economy. Since under this policy, agricultural prices are allowed to rise in step with the weorld market, Zambian farmers can earn higher income, helping to reduce rural-urban income inequality and providing even more investable resources for growth in agricultur;al production. 48. Tariff reduction. In the second experiment, a policy of gradual tariff redu-tion (a- 5% per year) is followed. All of the previous results and reasoning continues to hold, but in an even more accentuated form. Unemployment rates drop steadily during the twenty year period, since there is suff"icient investment funds to build industrial capacity at a rapid rete. Indeed, the projections sumnarized in Table 18.3 indicate that growth in urban employment outstrips rural- urban migration, and under this pol-Th.y it might be necessary to redirect more of total savings to agriculture to reduce demand for urban labor or to raise urban wages to increase migration to the urban sector (and to further reduce labor demainds). Alternative Government tenditue Policies 49. We have already noticed -hat the development patterni is grea-tly affected by indlirect tax policy, partly tkrough induced changes in govermaent revenue and -in-vestment expenditures. So far, we have been treating public consumption as fixed, growing at 7% per annum. This is a rather optimistic assumption, which implies considerable political will in reducing tie average growth rate of current expendi- tures by the government, as well as a public marginal savings propen- sity of unity (during any given year). To test the sensitivity of the results to these assimptions regardiLng the division of public expendi- ture between savings and corrsumption, we have experimented with two types of alternativre policiles. In -the first, the growth rate of public consuTmption is set at 21% above the basic case level, at 8.5% per year. In the second, increases in net government revenue (above the base year level) are divided equa.ly betwreen public savings and consumption. 50. Increased bulic consumpion. The imulications of higher rates of growth fo-r public consunption are presented in Table 18.4. It is not surprising that the economy grows at a significantly slower rate. Note, howover, that output in the urban sector changes much more than in the agricultural sectors. ThisS is because public savings represent a much higher share of toc.a` en2s3trenlt in that sector than in agri- culture. ANNSX 18 Page 18 Table 18 .3: G.DTJAL 1DUCTIUN IN TALIF'S '3OM'EPNMENT I N%:'E TMlEH,T FOL I Cc IHARE DOF GO,ERNMENT Ir4 . E Tr1ENT I tl: E`-TPlEriT I N LaFEN -.EC TOF = . ? 5 I N'%- E7TMENT TNl COt1EFC I AL AP Il- LLTUFE = . 04= I N. E 7?TMENT T zArIiP I A 1-BF I C LTYI_FE . 15 Ij 3(a) LABOR FORCE MDI TRILI.TION jj IHUI r HrilD 1972-' 1976 193C' 198 4 1-93 133 A4 Y 9.E GROIITH FPATE 1. 630.') 5I-i 5 .191 550I . 2.-,t-. 4'9B .571 4'5 . 04E 24 .71 B -2 -4 .64 2. 157, .Gi1 I-' :.:E:' L-.5 .2L .249 4:R-'.'.' 59t.309 R *- 3. 2 i O -i . 4 47.4L' 5 .4'i 1 73.+ .4c'5 4.95 4l 25 . 00 35, .319 42 9 . 72 . ' : '3_t . 151 ' 0 l4- 5 - 9: 5 -31 6 .66.7.-. 41 C: .3.- 432 .492' 5 .c .B346 r- .42T 93: .141 5 .54 6. 10. I:',:' 1 .t 1 1 2 ., 45 316 5. 1.2 2.18 . ROi, 1 FE RETEtlT: ''OFF FORCE 114 TFAr,ITTIO,r4AIL HGFiI F .,I 2 ,-REPR E ENT: 10_ FdF FORCE TH EMEFi-ErNT AiR-FI PFgii '-: F EF P PE- EtlT?- EMPLOY MENT I ti C OPMEFC I AL Rl-;F T ROtI 4 * EPRPEC EN t - 1 IBFtE: : E'ITOR ENFFLOYMENT FOl 5- F EPFPEENT TOTAL UIFRAtN LABUO FORCE POI-I 6 PRE PPENT FEF'CENTA1-E OF 1I uINEMPLfT,'tE1IT 3(b) PRE-TR:: FER IIORF EP ItiNCOMPE LE.FL- , IN THOU TANADK OF 198 '37 F l72 -IHH - 1972 1976 1 97: 1 19 4 1 '9-: R1 9 AYE G-POIITH FPT F 1. .1 8-0- .2,-40 - ' 3- .31 3 .B .552W ? c- 5 Z.>t 2. -'11!4- 1 . 501 .=,, 5.32 .6:-6 .'.25 5."19? 3 . 4: u 1 .: .1I.4 . :.4. . 43' . 4 B:-: l4. . '9 0'' l . .31'96 1 . 1 0'? 1.23?- ' -"> 1.33' ? 1 . 563 2.31 FROIl I PEPFEEENT r S INCOME Iti TF RIITIONAL IGF T P 0'I,. . F EPRE .ENT INCOME TN EMEPiRGENT 9',RI ROil 3 REPPE- ENT. IAIEC I Fi 1- E' I 9OMMERL ARF' I FROl-I 4 REPRE-:EHT IAGE?7E IN UBFAHN ECTOP 3(c) MIGRATION PAFRT E PERC ENTAGE OF LABOFR FORCE Itl TFRAITIONAL AFRICULTURE 1'4, '9, 22 1976 19:30 1934 1s933 199I TIRE 74OF ttI GRATTOt! 1. 1 .1 01 1 .966 E .6:.54 3.1 - ? 4 . 104 .34A TO EPMERG JRFM 2. 2.i55 1 .706 1 .534 2.66. 6 . 1E4 17 4 0 r TO1UERBA -DEC-T HO3IIHWdOJl 1HI JH'iJ- I T3d 20 tJ3T.3dd 3d: VC l HO I 1wQ iTjll HOT' T 1 I 1:1.K T ltJ3 3.d33A3-d 11Od HO I dWTI JOTI 31 HI d I B T3 B.dB71 I "Gd FS2t 6 -'-'Dt .1- uJI 11W 1 tt' 19. :-: T--J -.I9I -S:T:: 5 - - -' ' ' - - - '- - - - -I - t V - - - - - - - - - - - - - - t :I)" 11 78t-t" 617 t'TT'~ 3;',. '91 t-ItE t t H 19 It-93t - 't- 1 S T 1;0 _1 I ?.9 ;u / I T . "1 .w :5 :-. : t: 1I9 . _ 9T J 5 'S_'r 1 999"' 1._7 1 61" 2 '~ 6" rnr.- tS93 7" t'-L ru - 177[ L 1-t '9E '11 1 9 ItS SWi" I9% El.di h1i'IOd-l 3.;H %6ge I :-:-.t ,4-3 6 3 J 3 T 6l 9.- II- I HHTi9H-li'li I '161 1t H01211H Hlcilni I h T3T'I d 13 d, tIH 4 1 '-l'OTd I4LI:. IU OI lOA I'l lI (JW T3T'.Idd 13 'eddLJ flIdO;" l idl-3 >iHlBdB %-S: mUtd TBT'9Id ABT'ITd3i'LTId ]IiT11lB.JO'i jtr-it- d 11 T3- BTBAABA V PlOd. 10OOi- "H I Hl I A 1143 Bdd3d C ' IClU tle7.S t7 1CJ3 3. P3.I- I - "U JDV7L9 v'.HI-:'-791C-vIeJH - j 1u 1J- 2W1"C-) kG * - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - -- - -- - - - - - - -- - - - -- - 3:-,~171IH2 -F .R2" :>E.... T.t . t A" T1 6rJ) T-; 1 - u94CT6* C&:- :t ._'31-1" ':: Vtt ::.lu' I'-'t1 1_'I 169 1u' ? 91. I * | i ,1 - _ 4 _ ,_ I . _ w _ tn tB _ s_ _ 9 _ tB; t. H i . T.JO: u uLM-t191 HIt ,, , -: v' "t'' C4t'~'-Cr tv -- t * - t' t'" f- l7 :-'" ' 5 - 1v: BIHAd H1i tOdL3 B3 *e b 8861 i -:Ptt861 '1861 9.6 t.T111 HHIHPI 4 3.il IdOJ iA4011211 HI'llii HO II 1 T _ O-dHO zI :11 'THN i!ldi-lO iHO I letJ (a) ASlH_ E3i3W3 HII ADA. iwBl3:d3dB3 I '3 'OO 7TO.d I d9H 'lHdi H1 dO.d iB T33.JBA3.d t- ILJH1 T 1i0.d - - -- - - - - - - -- - :-- :1-- - - - - - --- - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - ----- I - --- - '--- - - - E,:-! 71 t T _q I ~ t"tc" . -Ie - 163 ------"":31 " :6t.-"9 4-2:5" ut-I? 9.-"131 :-1C-* UtC 198" 101 ICO-"94T, T4I 7 09% *Z t -e- ,-.'' 9,-: u; .-:, - 1 '19" - 11 - 9 -- 9'- - 1:: * I I -T' T::- ' * 1 -IHAiOJ A30 NiHBT'3.A B L 111- Id ' IL4TOHi. HI HJOIliHliidlO.d A0 HOIlAl:3IdLT I'1 (P)f 61 a3eT 8T XI3NNV ANNEX 18 Page 20 Table 18.4: PUBLIC CONSUMPTION GROWING AT 8.5%v (21% ABOVE THE BASIC CASE) 2,O:.z'EBOYPHMENT IN'.'E' TMEt4T POL ICt (i) HaFtE.C OF 'OVEFJIEIENT IrlNlES TMIENT IN'v.E-ITMENT 1t1 UPBArN -ECTOP .9 05 ITNVEC Tr1ENT I4N CONNER'? IAL AGE'II ULTURE = . I4T INi'.'E - TMIENT Iti C7ANFIAN AGRIrCULTURE = .053 (ii) CONSTANT DOMESTIC RELATIVE PRICES 4(a) LjA:OF' FOFrE DI-TPIBL'TION ItN THOUI -3ANDE.- 1'9.72' 1976 r'9-:ll 1'984 19- 1'992 AYE 'OITH FRfTF 1. F3: . 11I:: 5 0 .64 594 .97 . 5 9.7 .- .4 . [9R 61: .225 - . -I: 2. 1: 57', : 0 .717 26'--4"'- .- 34.114 415.755, 5s. .3-4 B . r 3. 20.ono I:tl-l 25. 9- 2`9.223 1' 3 1 .41o 27. C' 1 .r. 4. 235 . O - 4 49 .43: 0 `74 .74 r 3 :6 . .- 1B l - . ', . .-, 5. 31,6 4.7 41E.230 4--.94: 560.1'2 t32 .79 703.4>" 4.11 6 . 1011 .000 t I 11 15 . 23 4 s sc1 .044 41 .550 5C:i:? PC01 1 FEPFE EtiT 71IOFF FORCE Ifi TRAT'lTTOrtiHL A'ThAl ROe! 2 F'ECENTC lET OPk FORCE Itn EtERGENT hAETI Pol'l 3 PEPRPE'.ENT. EPlFt ODYMENT N CONER IAL E TTI FROl,l 4 r;ERFE 7 ErNT :-' JIRE:A EC TOP EMIFLO''MIENT FOll 5 FEFFE ENKT7 TOTAL UREAN LABCFR FORi-E P1OW1 6. REFE -E3iT PTERP- ENJTAi3E OF UIRElA I. iF EMRL ,' rtFt4T 4(b) PEE-TAI. FEE ''lOF EF' INC-OMIE LE'V'EL 'I THOU I AIiM OF 1922 'AC lH 1 372 I 37 133 0 1 -34 1'9'-- 192 9':E -P'liTH PR7F 1. . 1j:-:ut l .20 _ 04 .23 .22 t.-:I .-22-4 1.11 2. .7: ru .3:4 C377 .415 .452 .47 2 .35 3. ._.- r, .321 .:r.9 .423.-4r .557 3.50 4>. .Rn ll 1.033 - l.1.B5 1 .3-, n 1 . 561 1.7391 -.' FOlI, 1 FEPRE-ENTCT IN COM1E ItN TPRTITTIONI1L AGRI PO1 2J F'EEPFESENTC INCOME INi EMIERGENT RG^PI FRO I -3, REFRPE ENT' rI -'A I I N C OM'IFRC I AL AG? I Pf'lil 4 PEFPEcEN4T: ''AGE.- IN HPFFPt' -EClTOP 4(c) MIGRPATIOIN PATE: I FEPECEtrTIHIE O1F LP,OF FORF-.E IN TRADITIOHAL AGRICUL TURE 1972 1376 r. 133:-:0 13':4 19:3:3 i'-2 TYPE 5F MGTIGrAItO 1. ' .i1ni 1.441 1 .67 1 .'--4 1 . 94t 1.-934 TO EMrEFR3 FAFt'l- 2. .055 1.612 .303 .514 .303 .145 TO IUFE'hr4 -EC-T ANNEX 18 Page 21 Table 18.4 (co.t ' d.) 4(d) i ITFPIF:'T Ior O F FOPULAT ION IN THO1I'AFM FiUD A:-ID F'EFIPCENT OF TOTAL ------------------------------------------------------------------__------ 1. 225r cnr: 1 .2145.1 .1 E 121 I -I9 ,1 1 t.1:: 7 157 .49- 2.2 C .94. - 2. 5i,3' A.714 231 .. I . 4 I5, 1 t9 :,4 1 4 -:34 " C4 I 11 , .95,: 3. 1 :;:.462 154 .771 164:- .91' 17, 1 .4f5 164t .-54 I c3 .1 -: 5. . 2, . i49 j 4: 4 7:97 .32:: 6. ..91 .:15 , :11 ,,:. .256 . 1: 9 .13 R01-1 - IAI: 4 F'EFPE EtNT PCP I r TFRiD AhGP I FOIl.- F ir-i 5 FEPPE ErlT POP IN EMEP- F. P POV I'rill -S -FEF F E --EtET POP IN IPERl OIEC,TOF I 4(e) UTTIPnUL !:TFLIT HrTrl IT: CO1F Ol ITION , It M1ILLIONI- LF 17 ,IF iCHHh 1972, 1 973. 1 9-:l- 1 9-:4 1 9:B:-: 1 99- C;'P0I.i:TH FP, r 1. 1:3:4.5Ci1 2:27.,4 274.: :::-, : 9 v'2 .442 447 j''7 4 ,: 2. 7, 5 .5 1A t t,'. 1 T : .194,5 1:4 I 11 :-II f.C:91 1 1..- : 4- .-- I 3. 4,5 IIIH 513 .59l0 ` :- . ? .7 *-, - - 4. 1 '1 .25 1 1 r - .41- 1 9 9 141 2- 4 ' . : 4 -: 4 ,4 .t. 4 .1 5 ~~. I :65 .46r 1:3:13.674~~~ I2514 I5.9. 52 0225 I 1:24 F.:f. 4 5 1 - t ~~~ 4t l 1 :~~-:_1: .1 11, 4 1-,, 2 C` j1 5 ,, -: 91 .45, :1 0, 1. 2 5, , :, I l . .- r 4 .- FOI- 1 FEFPE- EN1T - 'BF I C ULTUlFhL IZOCI F[,1 2 F F F'E E r 1T -IFF:Ar4 i30T'lli- F', I - EFPFE Er-T: r1 I rN I N' of 01, FOl,l 4 F EF'E Er4' tHF FIT DMITr FT F ODUCEP PF IF F- FOl,l FEFFE -Ft17T GrIP AT OF LI, tM9FJ ET PF ICE: 4(f) rN I FO T I 04 OF NFITIONAL F'FOI'UCT -AIT rP1HY[Ef HFIrIE . IN rILLICri -F ?7 1~,- IFHA 4 H', 1 . I 9:3:1 1'9:-:4 1'9-'- 19-9 'E GPI,LITH FATE 1. 5. r4 .4 i'th'. 7 14 .,- t : .;1 .744 99r . :-.-: 1 1 4 . ':-: 4 1 15.* .4 Pt C 2. 27 r r . 7t6.4' 9 521 . 4,-i , , - , . :3 . 19; 3: I'- ' 7 -' .m11 3. 27' 1 .451 -,59.4.-.B 4;'1 .-:B.- 4_1 *,7 73-.9.14-: 1`9.3 Bl6l -12- . 4. 25 . 917 1:6 .17:-: .5 .:6c 41 .j55 49 .95 5:-.57 4.1 5 - 1:: .- 02 -2--- 2-L- . 919 - - 54 . 112 - -:B:- - -494 -:, -: . 1--- -- - - -- - - . - - - .1 O'I' 1 F EFFE- EN1T I F' T'TE 1-ON lUr1F'T TrIC Fh 2iI F EF'F' EI ErIT FI LlF:L IC `OH l 'MPT I TOr F'Oll -: FEF FE I Er4T 3Ff: L APR I TAL LOF MAT I T FCI.I 4 FEFPE Etr,r T-OPEIINt F EP1TTTAN E- F'Oil '5 P EF F'E'- E rT . TOTAL PER AF I TA C Ori - ItWT T C1 ANNEX 18 Page 22 51. The effects on income distribution and employment are striking. Since public investment funds are shrinking, while depreciation expenses are rising, net investment in the urban sector steadily falls, perhaps turning negative by 1980. Since wages and productivity are rising (at identical rates) in the urban sector, employment here peaks around 1984. Thereafter, urban employment rises very rapidly, since rural-urban migration rates react rather slowly. They do fall, however, slowing the transformation of the rural sector from traditional to emergent farming. This, in turn, works to reduce farm income levels (as compared with the basic case), making the income distribution that much worse. 52. Finally, the whole process is accelerative. Reduced income of Zambian farmers reduces investment and hence future income, and so on. Similar phenomena hold for revenue and expenditures of the government. 'While more public consumption now implies higher aggregate consumption for the medium-run, this policy means less total consumption per capita after 1984; growth in private consumption per capita even turns negative. 53. Increased public savings. In Table 1865 we show projections for a more flexible policy, viz., a fixed 50% public marginal savings propensity.l/ In the near term, this policy would lead to lower consumption and higher public savings. Since more investment is taking place, the economy grows more rapidly (in a pattern opposite that described above), leading to higher future government revenue and, hence, consumption also. Note also that the entire development pattern is somewhat smoother than in the basic case, since investment levels do not absorb the entire impact of fluctuations in government revenue trends (brought on largely through changes in world relative prices). Experiments with Exogenous Parameters 54. The above experiments have dealt with the impact of changes in government economic policies. But these are not the only important parameter determining the development pattern. A model such as DYZAM has hundreds of exogenous parameters ranging from world relative prices to coefficients of the expenditure equations, to ownership patterns of physical capital, to technical parameters of the production function. These too can be very important, as seen in the results of the two experiments discussed below. 1/ The reader is again reminded that government revenue and expendi- ture is defined net of all implicit and explicit transfers associated with indirect taxation. ANNEX 18 Page 23 Table 18.5: PUBLIC MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE AT 50% SOV .EPRNMENT I W-E7 TMENT POL IC f :HAiRE.. OF GO:VEFNrNMENrT IriF-hECTtErIT IN'Y.'E-TMENiT INi UREAN 'ECTOR = .9'5 I tr'...'EC-'TMEMT I i C OMMEPC I RL ARt^ IC UL TUIPE = 045 I NYlEC- TIENT II fArM1: TA AiBP I C L TURE = . 15'3 ONr TAiNT DOME TI': RELAT I YIE P I' E MPS = .5 5(a) LAEOF FORCE DII:TPIR:ITION K INt THOUVHNI'C2J5 1372 197r 19-:1- 1934 1 9:-: 1 3 R.E IFOIdTH FATE 1. 3:' 0 flu B r . 0 54-175 5:1.71 5 4;=:. 5- -1.- 2. t571. C: .eri4.625 64 .4-4 -7.5-:. 425.597 523.7 3. 2O oaflC D6.flSfl 3:1.-32 : - -9~: 44. i c: .9 ' 4*99 l.a 265.1-f -u-:51 .r.S: 413-. 99 4::. -41 37: .4:-7 r-- .152 4.43 fi -.cJ .33~-- .7 5. 31I6 .6r. 4i 9.1 2 43-5 . -.1 9 .-- 9- 6. 10. 14.034 1. 5.. 6 5r. 15 54 - 13.9- ROil 1 REPRE. Et:T 1.lOGF FORCE IH' TRAPITIOrl0AiL A'-PI FP1.l PEFRFE:ENT- .lO2F+ FLJF'E IN4 EMRFPGENT A'3II PFC 3EPRESENT 1 EMPLO-rEriT IN COMMEFRICTL FRIP FOitl 4 FEFRFE.-CEt4 T RB CFEC-TDFR EtILOitlErT ROOl 5 REFRFREI-Et:4T- TOTAL TAN LABOF FORPC-E FROl 6 E FERR E f-iT -EPC ENE riTAE OF URBFAE:N U4NEMFPLOYrMFN`T 5(b) FRE-TA: REFP OlRf.EF. INCOME LEVEL- 'IN-i THOU:-- ANDI OF 1 937? siAIH IFt 1372 13. 6 13801:l 13-4 9: 139 9.RYE E FGIOTH 2A TF 1.. . 10 t .20c1 . .2. .25 1 . . cl 2c. 9 2. . 34fl 0 340 . 36 .44- .512 .t : 9: 3. .--u .,,1 .I t 9 .4c2: .4:t .57 3.50 4. 91ti0 1 11.033 1 135 1 .JZt 1 .5,1 1 .7 ?1 FRiOl 1 FREFFRE : ENT: I 41- ONE I N TRAH IT I OAL rt;F I ROlWl 2 REPRE 7ENIT II"1:rE INr EMERFFGENT FGFI FOIl -: RERFE-:ENIT-: .'tE- NTr C OMMrFC I AHL AGP I PROII 4 FEFRE:-ENT: 'AGTE: I IN UIRBA -ElTOR 5(c) MIEFRATIOr4 RATE: PERCENTAGIE OF LABOPR FOFR'E IN TRFADITION4A4L RGlFRICI Uu_Tl- FE 1372z 1376 ~ 133 :01 133:~.4 1 9:<::~: 1332. TYP FE OF M1IGRFriTUIO4 1. 1 . 1r1 1.437 1 __w Z. 1 2.625 --t TO EMEFO rRAF 2. . i55 1.-r. 1 .44 1.4-:: 1 r.45 1 .392 TO IUIFEAW TEt-T - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -_ _ _3_ 9L1illIIJ3- i93:~: IX I 3dO3 13 3 3: d.3 :1- tV IllG sl H011 :4WdD0: ll I.i7iOcO ._ i nS- 113 _:3 d -A 3; - 'AO.: WJ I 1 Oi;JI I 10 I 'I -t l lI-1 -_ ltIJ3 7-:3J 1: 3 .S 1 '10dn i10I 1SILJH tJO-I ~~31L4,1: el*! -'. 1J 3'- 3 3.:.E. 1 I riD: --- ------ --,--- -- --- -- --- --- ----';- - -- ------ - '--- -- - - -- -----1- '{ - ------ - - * F _ D - L .|. t t ,,:Z .7 l I ll lt ~ '_ ~ ~t" ~ t ,. F. _+q ~ _ @ t= .?= . t:-:6 v _t I_E- * z : _rn * : I 1 '~ . * ' t ' '' 2 ; I'~1 '-r. *tB-- V 1 lt *e I < 44 *1 _ 1 1 tn W ,_ ':1_1 1 ! zt z t t ; "'. T 4 I .- t - = I 4 =_ 't _ 1 te .~ . I t l l ' 11 t 7 w : * _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ P: J 31.-t.i HlllOd-l 3-;e - . .1 _'7t' 1 vESt I t.E:t I J r I _61~~~ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ---'- - - - - - - - -.- -T-01- - - - - - --3_1- - - - --l.1-1lY 39Ieir _e:l3-lt;l2}:lEi~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 i1 3!iUI4 19 Si" _133i:3 VlO - 9n- -J4I J1ili. I i 3 3.iJ--3 d riD I'I :ilO1 ,-: 0 t 4:1 !, i iF3 _ i.i.3A: . G -t : '0 0'3 It F 1111 I .-lY L:I 1 f J 3 _.3 dsIJ3 -.i , wl _ ? [ * 7 ! + l | _ - : t ll . | ll l.: t;'- -1 '7 t, - 1 -t - * : T':'7 I -' _c- I 'I-J~~j-7-; { tV r-t--- t.=4 T .'VV 'I-EE---7 -5 l 231H 4 r2 t j&jO,jcl 3, ,ti Dte I ,s , I V - t 1 1_1 - t I . _ t; S _t,J7T 74 T Im- '4 1 j 'm Hli'1 ;IY!I I; t::] t:3 3-13 V- lele I ~ I iOdI l l~~ ~~ * l l~~~~ ~ ~~ * sH _Ijl _ El _ _L _ _ o I -- I WW W I C '9 * ' | 9 ;2 [ r - - |~~~~~~~~'I ijJ- _1. i _ 1- 0 . t ts |I9J;-I 5 1v 9 1T A :--l -A . i':3r -:-.d,l i-: IveH : --::,-0* - - -- -- -- - - - - - - -- - - - - - -- -- -- -- -- - - -- - - - ----- '7 _ 'it.s- --- --~ , t -s - ' .s t T ' t "--.:-- 1_- *7 sIt 2 '1 -, ';_,- e.l9,l ItV ,13rl~~~~~~~~~~: .- dIV Vvt 9wS 0 w Vl'24 Dt7~~~tJ I tel~ -I C 30 `J 7lKIS 1 p ( *- T. UD)5 1a e tiz~~~ ~~~ -:Zl-7: :e,j - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - --f- ANNEX 18 Page 25 55. Reduced Qopper Prices. Since the agricultural and urban goods are so highly aggregated, perhaps it is not unreasonable to have so;ne confidence in projections of movements of their relative prices in the world market. Unfortunately, world metal markets are notoriously unstable and it is impossible to forecast with any accuracy prices (even in relative terms) for a twenty-year period. This is a serious limitation of the long-term simulation model, since Zambia is so heavily dependent on revenues from exporting copper. However, no matter how unstable the world price of copper, any long-term planning (even if no formal model is used) requires that some projections be made. To avoid serious problems of bad "guestimating", simulations with DYZAM should be made using a number of different price forecasts. 56. The results of one such experiment are shown in Table 18.6. In this case the long-term relative price of copper is projected to be 15% below that which prevailed in 1972. All other policies and para- meters are the same as in the basic case.l/ Since output plans for the sector are not revised, copper earnings are reduced. This erodes both government revenue and the profits accruing to foreigners. Once again, the major impact falls on investment in the urban sector. Output and employment rise more slowly, and the rate of unemployment rises rapidly. These effects then feed back into agriculture, reducing output and average income and slowing the internal transformation process.2/ 57. Reduced Urban Profits. As a second example of the importance of exogenous parameters, consider our projections for technology. In deriving the production functions for the urban sector, the profit rate, gross of depreciation and direct taxation, was estimated to remain stable at 22% per year.3/ This may be too optimistic for Zambia. Urban investment in recent years has not achieved this profit level; in the future, the government (or private sector) may not be sufficiently judicious in its choice of projects in the urban sector to maintain the average profit rate. 1/ In the basic case, the long-run copper price was taken to be the same, relative to urban goods, as in 1972. 2/ These projections closely resemble those in Table 18.3 which represent the case of increased public consumption. However, here there is no compensating increase in total per capita consumption. Rather, there is a transfer of real income from Zambia to the rest of the world. 3/ Using a Cobb-Douglas production function, the profit rate will be constant if labor productivity and the real wage grow at identical rates. - -w- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- - -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- - :WIJ.-i Ef3W3 0L t IiA I c - I IJ T * I Ci L dL4I L- o 3.-,. ?e61 -:E.l tJ;.6 8 i 9Z) E. 'Il 3.d1J1n:ldl-I.'H iHee1OIIid lel lt JJ.dOd df[J:Th4 ) 103 eEJ i3d3d.. :3114d H10II.4.f'IW (D)9 I .- -i3 I 3:.14i0 I i :. i 13 :3.f . C -.J 31 L43 Idfse IHBEI3W --*Ui 3w0: :i4-$.1.iJB3d3f-3i - hOd il 3sI L E It 1I_9 t19* -- Ir. '*3 [ I .d-~ Ol _3)Hl _ [43-~3 -3: t - 11- I.T'E1* :1r* 3iHd s HiIE 3, ?t'n I 33'. - '~~ 9nTo r.l-1 -, s1eid Hl:lr.~~~~~~~.1-i kJ 33,,ei iH3tI E::Rt t^-43. T l-. 9'tT T33;;,3 3W40 :'I .f3.xfdi'i d3d :*:14-3dd (q)9 3 d I *fOlfO:1H1 Hii.4fil ltIIC wHB23 3.f.-3.- , t1i. LH43d.OiI4 di). L31-|l .fh4a.dr :Ji-i~ _>3:3dd-3.~ - Lid..........e15 IJ i'4 vii-1:.3HWJ:IJ I HI 1HX3Hi.'..............C.-31dU13 :IB.Bdd.f.3 ..:-llO 3.. t,E 1'w 3 -- - E .'F- 3f:: ;3t - 91C _-'lts ls I':" 1 I ,1.4 I- H 3 9-13,.3 31 -f *WO) -1 3i3.f .-1 (q)g ii3WLAj t-IJ W3iQd i, ll-11H -4 I ,t_4 3-3= iW3 3.I t: 43-ti i!S, I 0 d. = I rl IU- :it1i-di-j :H.iUi iv: H3W.3'H m* * 03W - : 1AW * - i -3- WH,~ E W 3 3:- -d 3; _- II , o ~ fll*' ~* *11 l)3 9: U 03t t 311 I 3 _ t;3O. 30 LI 1,t9t - I9 I ld-i - J~ *-IO 4JUr t_ Ie - :_13 -'_ _: 3:-4, E:: E CX-80od_S .:. * * - - ,c. T I 1 tt -: . ,If . lelk I lOH1 CJ I v0 I io'l 'I Ii 11 3 If O W -H d o e ( e) 9 8T XThNV~~~~~~~~~~ Mt .~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ er C0 * =i 3f11- i- H._Le dJi Ilei. HI i043W 3-.11 FI ,vol * = 3.fl-11111 I f lei leiI -lf irNiN3iO ':3,.1 JOF 1F31-3;. UH ,iS5T c roflUrSr r7clrOo JO 71)7j7A.d r Nuz1 hE&--NO'I :9- 81 9TqLZ 9Z a9ed ST X7,NNV ANNEX 18 Page 27 Table 18.6(cont'd.) 6(d) DjITFIETUTION OF FOPULLATION , Ir THOI-I'rDl- itfr AI- PEPrIENJT OF TOTRL l. 225A . A1,0 iI141F4: 1. : : 14 .. I1 .: 2 . -.4F - .'I 4 4- - , 15 2. 5r.1 14 71 .42.226 1 .c5,4 . 1 4 .4 11 .41: . :4, r. - 3. 192 .4r. 1 5 57 .: v7 16 t!4 ., 13 1626. 7 51 1r .5. 4 71 ._ 4 141. I 4. .5 ::.4 _:21: ..-7 J, ._3. . 4z 5 . . c r4. 174 --1 * 4l 6. *2'1 . 18 .397 .273 .`44 .204 -1 .7S, F01,.1 1 FirN1 4 c'EPFPE 1 ErT POF I t TFRD 41FlI POI, I 2 FItil 5 PFPPE.ENT FrOF INl E1EFP R'3F P Oi.1- : FiN' r F FEFPE . ENT FOFO IH 1..1FF:Ht Ei-ITOF 6(e) H,FiTIOONAL OUTFU.JT APE IT IFO'lF ITIONr -IN NMILLIONrV OF 137 A dFlIFiH 1372 ,:: 1'9,76 1 9811 13934 1 9:-~:B.B l '. , . 'E l~nl4ITH 1 r=i' l. 1:-:4 .51-l c23.1:, :: 2E'l 2.1. :: 3.''.-:4?: :':IC :_:1-' 4e- Ie- 4 - 2. F5- . 5 C1 11174 .1 1, 6 .101 14t.5ri 164:? 5 9. 1 . t5 ..: 4 .1:3: 3 . 4_25 . 5ll::16t .5 9 627 t ., .T3 9 3.3~ 97 4- .2-_ 112 .57 4 .1.C 4. 1 c5 .4 t: r. 1745 .42 211: . 12 `4 56 . _ _, - . 1 - 4.3'' FOi.l 1 S EFPF E - ErNT -R'F TIF LULTUFPAL 3rJr, POR1 2 REPPE EITI- L.PE *ri 1-noOh'- ROl.I E P P E -EtiT - r1 I J I rj1-, 1iI001 FRIOi 4 PEPrPE EtIT Gr4F FIT DOME IT I C PPFl IF EP F F I F 7 PC1,1 5 FEPFE IE4TI 1 tF RT 1,1DFLD lcrF; ET FPF ICE 6(f) D I I FO [ l T I OrN OF rtiT I ONrL FFFOIll 1; T FIT tlFiP ET 7 F IiE, Iri MILL.IONS O F i .F 17 'Fi HR 19-7.2' 137 F 19:--:11 1 9E.4 ! 9BE: 1 %: R'.'E -FONITH PFiTE 1. 5 .4 A,41r * 5E I5-li B: .4 t 94 '94. I li.t l-l..'FB.9 2. 1 . 6 5 . :5t. . I7. 4 ... 4 . . u : 1 . - 1 .261 _ 3 27, 1 .45, B.6.3:- - t 5 .5 C4 4 I' ..3: 4 .7:.:I' lir, 795 4. I5 *Th7 11.131: 12 .-lr 1 . II- : I. .2 7 . I -I 5. 1:B:- t fl2 l3. 1 1 4 .:14 *4 J. :J, 3:3.; .t . 11116. ..55 F-i1 1 F EFF E - E-- T - F F I - - -T or - ON - --T I O- FO llI 3 I F FFE i ENT I FurL Ill 1 1, _, :1TFT 017 FC1.1-. F EF F FE F Et jT PUBLIC~ F HI,LFbeTIG P01l 1 F'EF'F'E-ENIT- "Ti-1F,ITR[ O:FMF4TIGti F 01. 4 FPEFFE I ErT F OFRE I Gr F Etr I TTRr4lc El PDA F F E F EriT TOTRL F EF i1- rITHTFi r Gr,-lI 1F'TIOri ANNEX 18 Page 28 58. In order to test these notions, we have re-run the basic case under the assumption that the average gross profit rate will be only 18% in the urban sector. The projections for this experiment are given in Table 18.7. Not surprisingly, growth in the urban sector falls drastically. Since profits are lo-wer, government revenues is reduced, leading to less investment in the agricultural sectors as well. In this case, urban employment grows so gradually (given modest rates of technical progress), that even though rural-urban migration rates are very low, unemployment rates increase rapidly. As with the other "pessimistic" case, slower migration retards growth in farmers' income and agricultural output. IV. Alternative Policies for Agriculture 59. So far, we have reported on experiments of a general nature which illustrate how DYZAM can be used as a tool for investigating economy-wiide and macroeconomic issues. However, the model was also designed to pay special attention to development in the agriculture sectors. In this section, the focus is shifted to more microeconomic policies aimed specifically at agriculture. 60. In designing the policies, two main objectives are considered-- rapid growth in total food production, as well as in income levels among the two classes of Zambian farmers (traditional and emergent). As will be seen, the two goals are not always complementary. In addition, in order to evaluate any policy for the rural sector, it is essential to have some notion of the costs involved elsewhere in the economy. Since partial equilibrium (or informal) methods may be acceptable for estimating the current impact of policy changes, the real value of a model such as DYZAM lies in its abilities to reasonably simulate medium-and long-term interrelationships. 61. To illustrate how the model works for these purposes, four alternatives to the basic case economic policies are presented. In summary form, these are: (a) increased public investment in small-scale Zambian farming; (b) increased public investment in commercial farming; (c) direct price subsidies to small-scale Zambian farmers; and (d) concentrated investment in small-scale farming. 62. Increased Investment in Small-scale Farming. This policy' has both income distribution and production objectives. The poorest people in the economy are small-scale Zambian farmers, traditional farmers in particular. The notion behind this policy is that if these farmers are allocated an increased share of public investment, there AlINNX 18 Page 29 Table 18.7: URBAN PlROFIT RATE 1{EDUCIII FROM 22% TO 18% GOVEPNMEriT- I [lYE B TMEHT FOL 1 C, HhFPET- OF GBOY. EF'Pr1ENT I 4 .'E- Tr1FrIT INY4. EB_TME1ET TI UFERN ECTOF = .30CT5 INHy:E Ti1ENST TN C':r10EF CIAL G FI 'LILTIJRE . 'E4 I ,sET TrIErT I H_ TME: I AGS AT .IC ULTUFE = . 05t COIJ TTANT DrOrE:TI'IC RELATIV,E PRICE?E 6(a) LABOR FORF-E rI TRIBIUTION INt THOUIJ?ANW2;) 1372 137e 19:B0 19:334 1F33 1992 AYE POI.ITH FPTE -------------------------------------------------------------__----------- l. ,-.3 C . 0l:'':' '5(3 .0':13 6 C'S . 7 '52 t5.03 . Cl .S?: 6 09t4 .4r2-. - . .45 -- .1 2. 157 . : ' :4.704 243.- .- -4 .6 5: 4 1,. . 516..:9 6I.1 3. ,0.00', 25.3-:5S 9.550 3-.366t, 35.93-1 3.:3 .,:1 -.-~ 3. 2.5 .-000C :37 * 0 35: 9 .': .53e 4,:- C.I 4 r.71 2. . ll 5. 316 .667 404.9"- 4 7.27. 54 . :-: 6.3 . -- 4.04 6. 10.000" ' 16.765 24 .Ec E.9 1 . 3 l 4.1- : .. 0 P'.'l 1 F EPIE NrJT: -I,IFk FOFGCE INt TPRADITIONAIL HFA" I FOb.1 2 PEPPEE ENTCT '-IOFRP FORCE IrN EMEFRGENT AiFRI Pol0 :: F ERP E lENr4T- EMtFPL OY MEN T IN COMMERC I 9AL Fi BI FR1," 4 QEPPE-CENTT- IFJBPr4 TEi..TGF ErIFLLOYMEriT F'S '', 5 R EF F E. EE4T - TOTAL UFEAN L.ABOR FCFOPCE F Gl, 6 PEPPET- ENT : EFCTEriTAIBE OF U!FFN IJNErF1RLOrtEriT 6(b) PPE-TF>: PEP IIOPRKEP INCOME LEYEL: * I Ni THUlI-N Ptit- OF 1372 I..ACH_F4 HA- 19,37 1376e. 133 9:BI 139:4 1 3:3::- 19 AO'. E GFPOIDITH RAiTF 2. .10 .1 .4c 2 .547 .c- 1 4r. 2. 4 .470 ..52 c.34 3. .2. :0l .31 . . - .4,2. .4.6 1 557 3:,1 4t. .30 1l0 1 .033 - 1 . 1 B5 1 . ' -: .5-1 ' .'1 1 .73'91 3.5'I- PF[;. 1 FEPFRE TENT?. 1 Nr4C O-E I " TRFiJ TTI CAL AFi; I FOl, F2 EPRETEt4T IC!4-nO,MlE INi EMEPRGENT AGRI PI R R-: F'P'E:CENT- ABET I T O-Dr1FRC I AL A'B Fr ROI-I 4 FERFET ENiTT I,'zFI I URBAHN -ECTOF 6(c) rM1IGRAFiTIrON PATET- FPERCEN-TAGnE OF LEB CFO r [CFE IN TRAIIBTIO4L AGRICUFICt LTUTIFRE 1972. 1376 1339,B 0 139:4 1923 - 1 2 TYPE OF Ml IER9ATIrONt 1. 1 .101 1 1422 1 45 1 .6B5 1 .357 ':. -79 TO EtMER' FARM 2. 2.:55 .;:79 .7? .554 .4-D0 . -T-5 TO URBA -T ANNEX 18 Page 30 Table 18.7(cont'.d.) 6(d) Li :TPITI ETIO OFF FOPULTIOnri In4 rHOLj7R1r';- Firti4r F- FPFFCENiT OF TJTFrL 1. I250 *0: 17.475 2162 . 21 71 I .515 217t7 i1-7 i ; 47 - .17 2 . 51 E. I . 1 4 1 . 1 = 5 4 4 2 . 4 ? 7 1 1 94 5: Z r 1 4 9 4 . 1 41 1 :4- I 3. 12:.:.: .46.1 1496. .1052 190 ._ lr9l .- 59 17 l4 .417 1 3. 7 96 1 . *. 4. . _iI- .444 .41C . _r4 .3R1 .D9 - 5 * .1Cr.149.114.E00l..- I 4 _. `4 6. .291 . ,91 ,, .-4 .2. - ._59 .5 FOIl 1 -,,ifnr 4 PEFPE-ENT POF IN TRFiD FiGPI Fold,: 2 XiD 5 FPEFFE7 ENT FOP Iti EMEF'3 Hi5F- F Ol. - : AH,I 6 F FFFE P EriT POP I4 UIFBiRt4 El- TOF- 6(e) tHFTIDHiRL OU_TPUT FiHDl IT- O-FMPf ITTIOt Int MILL IO;i: OF 1497,2 I- Hi-l 1972 1 9r 9- 0 19-34 1 9'- _ 199 H FE G'FIlT I; T T F . 1 - 4 .50(E 1 B 76 D'51 3.`.43 4 171 5 1_.91 5.27 2. 755 .iI 1025 .I ;4 1I55.:2 , 5?- . I 1B . . r- 61 .1 -7 B 5. 3 - 4 2- > l11 5I1t 5,: r ,.919 ,r_ ,.G 11 3 1. 42t. 5 I 16590 . 27I1 .919 76.: ~ - -c 7 .,C i5 e: -. rUf S - 5* 1-.4F 1 4 -. (I 1 1 3 .-'.: e::4fI.:75 9 7t t :-:9 .73 s 5. ROi 1 FI EPP E E NT F I ,F-Liri-'FFL Woi-rK- FPOl I PE F E :ErIT uPIPAP,r 5.CULo RO. : FEFFE E:Ei T f pTlIiril iELEL'- FO Il 4 FEF FE: EMT: 3r F FPT DOtE TI C F F POrIu: EF: F I C- E FnOld 5 FFPE:ElT: G HF P'T 'JFLI M9FIF T F II:E: 6(f ) 11 I - FPO - T I C [OF HHT I OHFIL PRFD1" T -AT rRVFIF ET FFIIE: * In MI 3LI Eb- OF V7, IIPHFI 7':. ' 9, 1 9I4 1933 i IE 1C,;TH FFITE 1. 564 4w. 71 .4., 7:: . .1-14 ?9,,7 .o: 11?:-.97 . 4 7 . 2, 4 .9 2. 71 . 5t I1: 41_, 11 ,-4- -1. I'l 4 1 Ir 3. ,:1 .457 :62. 9t5 434.: S; ? 5 fl 6t_.73 4 -44 .1:' 14 2 _5 . 7 30. 090 3?t 5 .; 15 471 . 39( 43 , 4. 1 _ 4 . 12 5. 13.( 1. 1 `40.72 '.9.: 0.:-. :4.7 5 5 - -- - BB -- - : - - --- -- -- -- ---- ., r , - t 9 -- e- - -: - ---- ------- -4E -- -- -- - - - - -- --- FOhI I FEFFE EriT FP FIl E G -n1 ItMIFT I ot F'r-]I- C- F FF E*E C T rUPL IC COH I IMFT I OH P.1 O,-REF FE EtJiT IBF [; : -FiF I ThL FOFRMFiT I on FOIl, 4 F E PFE ErNT FOFE I jrrN REM I T rTC E FO1,l ' FEPFREEt:4T TOTRL PEP CFIFPITFI '-0tAIMFTY3r' ANNEX 18 Page 31 -ill be gains in food production (through increases in the capital intensity of their techrnology) as well as significant increases in income per farmer (partiially through an increased rate of trans- form!ation of traditional -in-Go emergent farmers). The direct impact of the policy change is absorbed by reductions in the share of public investment going to the urban sector. 63. The effects of such a DQlicv are seen in Table 18.8. Here Zambian agriculture's share,9.5%, is convrasted wit' 5,0 in the basic case. This policy does indeed stl.ulate total agricultural production, its average grow,eth rate going to 6.82:p from 5.8%, representing an increase of 16%. Since investment is directly diverted from the urban sector, it is not surprising that the growth rate there falls 9p. On balance, the growth rate of GOhP (at world market prices) drops. It is useful to remember tha-t nmore investrment in small-scale f'arming means less government profiit revenue and less future investrnent; this indirect dynamic effect reinforces the impact of' the near-term re- allocation of investment. 64. The policy also has a significant effect on the dynamics of income distribution. There is much more rapid growth in income per farmer in small-scale agriculture; for traditional farming, the rate increases by one-third to over *I per year. The rate of rural trans- formation is more rapid, implying further improvements in income distribution. On the othier hand, there is less migration projected to urban areas since unemployment rates are higher and farmers are relatively better o-f in this experiment. Most of the poor gain in comparison with the basic case, but other poor, the urban unemployed in particular, lose.l/ 65. Increased Inve_wtaent in Commercial Farming. In this simulation the share of public i-vestment going to commercial farming is increased by )a.5%. The rationale f'or this pclicy is two-fold. In the first place, it may be ecorcmnicz ly or politically more efficient to con- centrate public expcndit .res in large-scale farms.2/ Increased investment there U -t re only pronote output in the short-run, but also w^,ould provdde nioQro public r - ven-C.e in the future, since the government would retaL r, a profit - r,t'erest in State owned farms, and e,.acts a high marg x on p-ria--.te farms; this is opposite to the poli.cy of investing ci o small farr ers (poLicy (a)). Second, commercial farm workers are relativeiv well unid and this policy would provide mor e employment. l/ '.ie cannot evaluate this pol- c,i `mmediately, since there are large groups of losers and gainers, i-ncluding important intergenerational transfers. 2/ To take account of' 'te very -iffuse nature of accross-the-board public investrnen, in -inall-<>es e agriculture, on arbitrary efficiency differential of 0;' Ic tvnc V Weaween it and investment in comrinercial far.ni rn < i _ * l 0A1 tJ O _ t tt t I C_ f: DI WdY1 Sd~WB 91 C- -W 7=L: 3'P 72 :? C,I IC I T. * 3Firln:-l-Id-lH 3 1HHOI.tlYIl HJI 3_'d0- 3 I:l1 AD 3-tlh13:-td3d --31iL4. HtJOldS'INI (0)9 dDl:!3: HYid(l HII :3Etr lIh3:.3.-d13d f 110i I-I--H,siS iH3Wdi- tHI 3H90-?IH :IHBIBdd3d43 2 lO.d I1, c-I' ]HH I3ll I&14 0J I 3h' 1, IJ 19 3 .3dlC13d v i Dd I! ' :- I F._ I 1 9- I UI?: I :EI *I :EC : LIL1U !- It' -t-' Z,:-- , 1;j - * * e1-: . : jT-*7. , f El'? IZ 7 ':4 -- I *4I 31i.1 H1ri 'iJD. 3- , , . :-::B.. T t*:' r.I :r. l ?.2-i . T l . Tl .HH:Y1.~ 2.L1 =0 :,DIHe-:HiH1 HI 3__3. `3_1 300144 i l, .'3 -4 J I .:I3 d3- 'Y14-3ddJ (q)6 1i43W.'.Dl'3iJWI - .I-4:idJA 3D 3HLJ1kJ3 d13,d liH ddBd 9 iiEd 'd,E0-h dO:d81l HH:dC 1 i H 3 3101 lHB3ddO iH_lW.J.01JW3 iOl i:3- iJH4:.fA, I li., 31 d334 t 0 '0d I. E i fI :'d3hZWOD HI IHJL.J'.W3W ............................ C34,13 i3 d3d : zi I.td1I'H ii.1'39L4O3 H1 3B-I~0- idOlit 7ThHL 3 3dLd3d 11 'Ud I f9H 1HHUII'IHd HJI 3D0 4iO>, 1iD0 LH3 .31d,3, - I[]d S -l ik3eeJOI.ldilt-rl rJl 3 0.iJO:I 1ArOv .-._ li J3..3,j,_q 3 1 T 110,d 81*f~~~~~C I I Z*:-:l -:4* -: . -7,*f Z, 1 i 0* :-:t OEf Of: st 9l:- *c, :Z, 'ZI~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1t t7 r . - .* :-. . 7f, ,9.*7-f 9.*,7*0.-- T f*,,,0*E .t f :- :-:, f: t -f_ :- :E:.7 -I; .-? 2 _ 7 4 . - Ci ij 0I S *. f - - --.-- ;| ., ._s ,f' I~ C:- -E . .7 t1^. 9-7 ~ Cr ':' IJ- 1-1+ *ci "-: * #7w. - :7: .-7 u.-7w7 U~~~~~t-- r' S -. 9 c ti7 C- t I-'-l -I .lC' 3B( H1 0lf9 31,H 2-.Dl t:Ei-,.i.IT tE92 I E TT .I NIJH .110H1. H I. :J31 1 11FrI IIwu 1 1 3 .fO:IY-7, ( B8 7r 1 = 73 wi]r! A1 d9'H HJ I :_WY_ H I IHJ3 l -3;,i I '-t1i*= Bdriil 2rtc 9 I 'J'3 3 :I d3WwNO H I IBI :3l 3. ,iJ - 9:-* = ,Ol9-i; HHS-,FJ liJ3liCB;,JI S .3 C, 3t3F.IHf 7l3W INBHI il3WO _lO 3dh4HI . 310.- li3WIi 3h I i.JL'Ji.33,O' SFSW4V, TTSWg NI LNI,S7ANI (IUVWOMI :g,1 aTqeL G2aes 8I X-NNV ANNSX 18 Page 33 Table 18.8 (cont'd.) 8(d) pI :TIFI:I O OF POPU ILATI :IN- THIJUIA1NrI: AND AC7 PEPCENT OF TOTAL 2. 250lO . O 2154 .:-314 `1- 2 20 -._i 1C 9 - I .4 -1 1'-.= , 2. 5-fl .71 4 -3 .,23 975 .579 1272-_ .252 16 4 2505.- 6e .74 3. 1 -ZB: 4 4 52 1923. 5 15I . C-f 1 351 .74, 20315. 915 2.6c .-85 3. 4. .5'i .440 . , U .34t .301 G -3. 5. 2. 16 .151 .11 ._1 .243 .44 4.13 6. -.-l .312 .11 .3 l, .57 RPOW: 1 ANIT 4 REPPE-DT4T F[OF IN TFRr AC3F I F>OiJ2 ANt'll 5 PEPPEZ-ENT POP ItN EMEF'3 AGP POId'UC -3 ANTD Ij F6EPPEI-ENT F'PFO It iRBAN ECTPCN 8(e) NATIONAL OUTPUIT Hti'l IT-- 0OMPO: ITIOrt -II N ILLI ori.- uF 1? c , I,HLRH' 1372 C 1376wB 1330 9 19 4 139B- 13Th -',E GO. I T H FF'T E 1. .1-4.5'1-ll 24 .112 -31.1' 0 41C.il1 522.511 6>:e 2. 55 .51 0 1 . I5C.51 1 32 . "i2, 17: ll .c l. u72, 2,9, .74,- . 0i 3. 425 . 1i 516.5 627.913 4l 7r 3- 2 7.7 2 11 . 5. 4. 121 .251 16239 .646 -:47 .I' ' ' 600. 0: ` 34 .F u 4 -4r .3 69 .5-1 5. 1 35 .4t 132.7.I 7 47 223.33 , 354. 1-l 535 .2'1 1 4513 .3 6,.,Z PORDt 1 PEPRE EM- T AGhI IC UL rTUFiL '.anr' - FOlM 2 PEFFEE TENT LIURPE 'lGOT'- F O,id : F7 EPRE ErTI M INItN- iOlOTKri FOIl,l 4 RE PFEETN r ,`NFP AT DiOMEK 'iT FPRO'IUCEF - FF ICFF FOil 5 REFREKrFN7-E tri AT iIOFLTi MARP ET PRICE- 8(f) rIpoFl-.TIorI OF NIATIONA-L PFOIUCTll.T AiT Y ET F FES' I ri tlI MLLI OF 1397,-2 iA, HAh' 1 372 1 136 13: 13934 1 33:Fi' 1.AE ;F01417H PAITE 1. 56,4 .406 723.2 3 ,- 4 -.04 107 . 11 140 3.57 13 0 4. 2. 271 .66 9R 5 lZ2 466 . . 11 .-4, -fl2. 0u 1 051 .361 7.0 3. 2, 1 .4,, 373.31 4-31 .4:,: F5 .745 4 :4. 704 1 14.4 .,- U1 . 2 5 .9 17 30 . 17 3- - 5 . 3W 4 1 .65_ 49._95 5: . C 4 .1t 5 . 18:- . r,.0-l, I2.712 35..5b0 2:.3t' 5.l 9 3W`139 .7 4 FPOMl 1 FPE FPPE 1 FLOW PR I 'ATE C ON I -iRT I ON RO;l .' 3EFFE U EN Fr F,;IL LIC 'IO l liF TI ETh ROhl 3 EEPRE-EtT - SRF0 O CA- HPTITAL- FORPMAT ION FOlI 4 PEFRE-ZENT F3OREIGN FEfITTATE4'E FOll 5 REPREP ENT- TOTAL PFR C-AF ITA i-Or?i_irjPTIONr ANNEX 18 Page 34 66. In terms of total food production, this policy (b) is nearly as successful as policy (a) (the projections are summarized in Table 18.9). However, it is much more favorable in its implications for the urban sector. Indeed, even though the share of public savings devoted t;o urban investment declines, the average long-term growth rate remair,s practically identical to the basic case. This means that more total government revenue is generated by the shift of savings to commercial farming, implying that at the margin agriculture is more profitable (in its capital returns) than the urban sector. Since no sectors lose (in output terms), clearly GNP grows more rapidly than iith policy (a) or the basic case. 67. Income distribution gains are less obvious. Income levels for Zambian farmers are projected at about the same level as in the basic case and much below those implied by policy (a). However, employ- ment is almost doubled in commercial agriculture, reducing the number of low income subsistance farmers. In terms of demographic transform- ations, policy (b) is very similar in its implications to the basic case. Since income distribution is about the same, while GNP grows mo-re rapidly, policy (b) is definitely better than the basic case, no matter what criteria are used to evaluate development patterns. 68. Price Subsidies to Small-scale Farmers. As we saw in Section III, pricing policies have important sectoral effects. The government miay be unwilling to raise agricultural producers' prices since much'of the gains would accrue to commercial farmers, many of whom are non- Zambian. There also may be strong reasons to maintain low consumer prices. In these situations, policy (c) emerges as a possibility. '.ith this policy the government provides a subsidy to the producers' price received by small-scale Zambian farmers on their marketed sales.l/ The objectives of the subsidy are to improve income distribution and stimuJlate food production. 69. As it turns out, total agricultural production is unchanged from the basic case, and somewhat lower than with policies (a) and (b). Table 18.10 presents the results for policy (c). 14hile not shown in the table, this policy does imply a major shift in the composition of agriculture in the long-term, with commercial farming declining and emergent farming increasing in importance. In terms of productionjin tlhe urban sector, policy (c) has a greater impact than the other policies; the implied growth rate of the sector falls by more than 1% per year. Consequently, GNP growth is reduced. 1/ Specifically, a subsidy rate of 20% is introduced after 1974. Since they commercially sell different shares of their produce, this represents an income boost of about 5% and 12% for traditional' and emergent farmers. ANNEX 18 Page 35 Table 18 .9: INCYcAS. INV 3STMINT IN COMChRCIAL FARMI1N IODVEPHN1EHT I tH,E: TMENT FOL ICI HhFPE: OF 1GO.'EFHMF:rNT TrI'y.'E:_Tt1FtiT N . E: TTMENT Iri UFRB : E- TDFO = : IrHE:lE TMENiT IM COHMMFFTIAiL SGP I':ULLTPE Y = .7 I '.-EP T1MENT it 7H AF: I AN AF FIfC LULTlUPE = . C'S -OH:i-TANT DOMECTI: FELrlT I.E FPTCEE 9(a) LhE:OF FOPF:E D_I :T4;IEllTnI[l ti THOUFiHriD: 172 197,. 1 ': f4 19 4 139:-:: 1,- F.E i-FOI,ITH fAF4E 1 . t .6-': . rl 111 5.,E L . J,J ,4 .-. 5-:9 . 497 9 4 fI -1 ..1 2. 157. .U O'':' ,R 0 4 .76 2 : F,4 . 44 5 -: E . 539 43,1*,. ' :~5,l R1 r 3. 2-r f: ' 34. 8r. 45.49- 57 .9O. 72.. 4 31 .-5 4- . l I':,::: 4F : 4, : . 13. 444 .9,5 523 .3 I: t-: .1I, 4 .1I 5.316r. .r.r. 41i:3. 6:3:6 4.-. .,. 5t3 . . 71 t4- .: .l 4: . ICr . 4 . 6. J 1 : t _ l. 1 . 5 . I 21 .015 1 .,5r 1 .49 FOk: 1 PEPFPE EiNT Ifl.Fr FOPi E ItN TFARDIT IDOtHL Ai'3I POlzl R PEFPEH- Et-: T,tD1F FOF-PE IN EMEFi;EHT F11'RP F'Ol : FE EP E EErTC- FMFLOYr1F:NT I i-COMMEPC IFHL H 3r I FPD0' 4 FEFF E :ErT r -IFFFit -ECTOR EtT F LOYrIENT FOlbI 5 PEPPE - ENTC TOTeL U FA F:Ht LhiBOF FOFPC-F F:OlI 6 FEFPE.-ENrT PEFICEtiTRG'E OF L'FF:HH flHEMPFLO'MErIT 9(b) FPE-TRF. PEP IDPI EF 1 1MirF ,LEEL i r-j THOU.,RrilHF OF 1 9., M-IH'-H- t3I2 176 1 180 19.-4 1?;--: 1399 Ah'- . F rEO,ITH Fhrr 1 . . 13 .2f, 1 ' ~ '~ .24 ,' . ' : ._10 I 3 R.7.F 2 . -.3i-II .3- 4 1 . _: ~: . 4 _< . 5 114 . 4: 3. .,:L . 1 . - .4-. , .4 r . -'!' 4. .J 9 1:K 1.I35 1 .3: F- 1 ._.1 1 .791 FP]l,l 1 PEF F E ENXT T ItnC'DOMF IrN TFRA4!T TTriFiL ki RO:l .: EPPE:ENT: iNfl. 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F-, 5 ._ U4 t"- i- *-- . , C .- _ I X9* ';9-- - =f~~~~~~~~~~~~~~- -t-- > w --* ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~-'-F 0 Cs - * |~~~~~~~~ .7 P T tW'9- : C:' T I-'': -I t-.,Z' lC'It - ' - -I . -'s:8- * n * t9 {J ~~,- .-. I -: I , 1 l f I,_ I X -I . I -Fe e l,I t_ t. I ,_E t- I I 9 9 I I 1 Wl- C I I . _ 'CI' 6-' I Ot, 9I-IF .:-:6-: :C l 'c'.: 595 I-ltJ7l 1 lJ 3iJ3 3.-Ji3.- iliG.-? .1l. HlHI ii4 W1 l 3 .3 dd 3 S - 13d _ 3JI LLH I , I I :N AJ3 3dd 3.d ilOD _* - . - t~ ?i:E:~ *U< I-J7W 6t '~ ' 7 t K' * I ?- r * -'3:31 I t 39I- * 1IJ0- I ? v , e T r ti O .- - t - t l | l 6 t 1 1^ 6 -7 t ,7 . -D 1 n 9 - TI 1 I': '-, ',:?T?-' 'CI C'9ll tI ._4 '74 7.7 :7,4- 'C C i 3LjJ HIiliU-l 3.,H 't. : -6I t.-IC I : I -7 9'CI '. 3iH. HiODAD. 3 E'dWE TI . .:3 I d I I T I :i Io HlO HI DflD- 1 I- C0 J I :.v 0D Gl:13- vJ33C * :.jc I iOJ il 9 IFiFIC lLDI . :i 99 :,133 H I ,i.i1 GIiH: C:33iG d l? ' I? Ifi13e GH-difl HI J.-A .lJJ3" 3, J 43,-l f :.#li T .lfilU1, I (p T )1.T`8qe ________ .____ It-- 51'- ' r vr - * U IE ' 'I -- q l IE * It' *9:.- J '? I ' E - _ 9 -' * 9 u * ? ts t t I s ~-i E - 1 : * - or, ,!~ ~~~S * - I.' ._;'3t: u,3 2.*:I:E*9:I. I* tIn ?It -,.:' *S 1=t - I*t-^ r61 u E:::', ~'II 9^I E l . -:9 tlJ- - -IL I-ti5 * 1 'I 1'4l-lJDo J f A -D Ill l-Il (P)OI. ( 'P I4UOD ) 01-T 81Taqel 81 XSNNY ANNEX 18 Page 39 70. While policy (c) seems successful in raising the income levels of emergent farmers, it is curious that income levels of traditional farmers are lower compared to the other policies and the basic case. The explanation rests on what is going on in the urban sector. Unemploy- ment rises rapidly as urban sector growth falls (due to diversion of current and future public savings to income subsidies), which discourages rural-urban migration. Since this is not quite off-set by more rapid transformation of traditional into emergent farmers, the total size of the traditional agriculture sector is higher. The increased popula- tion which must be supported more than absorbs the subsidy income to the sector as a whole. This seems to indicate that a policy aimed at improving a target group's relative position may have opposite effects in the long and short runs. 71. Concentrated Investment in Small-scale Farming in Rural Growth Areas. As noted before, an important problem with direct public investment in small -scale agriculture is its low relative productivity, caused by the very Uiffuse and heterogeneous nature of the rural sector in Zambia. This issue has of course been raised many times. Intensive Development Zone (IDZ) Projects were conceived as a practical response to this idea, as is the concept of the Sector Mission of Rural Growth Areas (RGA). With policy (d), we attempt to simulate some of the dynamic, economy-wide implications of this type of strategy for agriculture. 72. The key notion is that by concentrating relatively large amounts of capital-on productive areas and a smaller number of farmers, the productivity of the public funds (in terms of food output) will be increased. Hopefully, such a policy would also stimulate the rural transformation process by developing pockets of high income which become growth poles in the rural sector. 73. In this experiment an additional 2% of public investment is diverted from the urban sector to development of rural growth areas in agriculture. This creates opportunities for traditional farmers to become emergent farmers at higher income levels. Thus, the principle impact is on the growth of emergent farming, as seen in the results shown in Table 18.11. 74. This policy is reasonably successful in stimulating agricul- tural production in comparison with the basic case, the average growth rate rising from less than 6% to more than 7%. Interestingly, although investment is diverted from the urban sector, its growth rate is practically unchanged. This is because stimulating agriculture helps improve the balance of trade, thereby increasing the government's tax revenues. This increase in revenue means that public investment in the urban sector hardly changes. In terms of total GNP the production IA' OH:i-jrf J"-j 71 O VJAH A cl .1 3ii 'q 11 i t-i :,I T j T -------- ------------------------------------------------- ------------ ---------- J I 1. 4.-j -'I L 4 'I F) 'I.A, T :,T i-I -1 T I Z'IH -141[1 1 1. T IIH -I r JA -1:-4 3 --i p I .1 H j Ci TLi T 7:4171,4111 r+'IH -1'47-14'OLM-f 11, '4A --i.3 -1 T qZ!H 1.  I 9,), :1 L.J -A T qLjrj !.]T 7. J -3 _31_1`4.1 -4 "IL-111 T, +:o H "I 4 I, I n T 1 ii .c-i 1- j T 'q j.j 13A _j I T 1) -:4 T C T C! 1 T ::1 C4 :7 - - - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - --- - - - - - - - - - - - -- - 3 pw' I -J, p:, T ICJH IfIT I T Tq FIT, 74 -A 74 7777+1 (q)TT- J A1,1 I.n -1,1Lj JQ-! t It-I -4 -4LI '+:iH 'JI _j -i -47 4 j -1 A.+A -j .3 n - i +n q -i I H n 17411jj j 7 T,JCjH 'JHT I -1-.1 ti T _j `T41 IjT -1,1 (]:I -.7 P7 T P: ill P" i 1 7 t -4 T74,-, P: 14 T r: f: t- :4 r tv CI 1: :'r C C' t7 t- '_4 t- 0 C, C4 C, -=4':'TC I A:, -I -1 i-, T T t:7 Z' :4 r A n T t :1-1 H.-j H,1 '1,1,,H T fl(JT I I-( T T -I 1, T (T 'J -I,_j j._4 T I T 1 j T i Lj j 7 I T T T I JLJ.!_ T -II -J -71" _JH T -I'+j! J! I fl II T I.! 4: 1 J -..'I I. I T C C: I.4 J T 1A L J .' -4 e% J -1 L J t 1-4 -q ", r) Ft :4r] -J J3 W.' , .7'_9 i J T ' 43i*M_W,13F! CT218V HMIOUD TM I'd NI INUATISSANI (r11JVB1Mj'OmOO : TT'ST 9Tqej, 017 Ova O-T X-1-NNV rJfl' V-iUCV Yfl~~~i N IT -4H-1 i-4i NjC T ---I33113 1--- "Pdr riP' '--IODP-3 iNH'l -*o-i - p-C -i tfFl'd13-If - - -- - -- - - - - - - -- - -- -.-jflt- - - - - - - - - - - - - - --7 :j-- - -Ii - 3d -3 - 'P T~~t C'.j~7~- T4g, -7. ,. 7- - -1'1 --4 2' 2:: - . .flC ?S- :JT-*t- C 'C*~ ~~C.F T 71 :.' ,q; r : ~ -:4 ': C .:ifJ-4 '2'* ': 7,-. [CI 2 '- L.C :z AC2Tl C4"<- 7 * _IT C tj- T IC ~~ H-~~ H. '~~~~'],49 3.\q ~~~~~R T t:Lt,%1 I C.I,'RI!J77.! 3 ~~~T 4-4 7 1 4-'4t4 TidPii IN dUd ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~2 ~~~I3;3dd3A '; did-D :4 ~~. ~T4, dli iT'mI-~~~~ V -laT - 47g - L 3,j3C t-'di - rrm~~~jCI Th-ld'1' ]fl ~~~~~~ -PH - - '-4- -- - 1-7- d- -d ~ TT6-IF! JP'ii i iI ,-JI-~ I 41_J j -Lu- '' LAIj N i -- T .-9T THd H -If-t7: T Jf3-I-4 ' ipJ -z - - C', -, T V Tfl T 72 -'2-A%2 ?P!* C PJ Mi '4J3 1.3d- -H '- TaNH 'ijH 'CiflHtiJ fT 0JPT IinidEl 4iP nO'. FVTll I'2 1> (P)rtT ST ~~~~~~~~ UONNY1'S -vq- ANNEX 18. Page 42 gains in agriculture more than compensate for the output losses in the urban sector. 75. The changes in income distribution as a result of this policy are rather dramatic. Although the number of Zambian farmers remains unchanged, the composition shifts and more than 75% are engaged in emergent farming by 1992. This contrasts with 50% in the basic case. In terms of income growth the remaining traditional farmers benefit the most. This is a natural consequence of the release of near-surplus labor at rapid rate. Finally, while urban employment is down somewhat, unemployment rates do not significantly rise since remaining in agri- culture has become more attractive. V. Summary: Welfare and Policy Implications 76. As variations from the basic model (Table 18.1 and paras 40-44) four alternative tax and expenditure policies are simulated (Tables 18.2- 18.5 and paras 45-53) and four approaches to agricultural policy are 'tested (Tables 18.8-18.11 and paras 59-75). Also simulated are the effects of reduced copper prices and falling productivity in the urban sector (Tables 18.6-18.7 and paras 55-58). The growth paths for each of these variations are shown. 77. The gains and losses associated with any public policy change tend to accrue to different groups at different time periods. Therefore, it has been necessary to use a social utility metric to make overall comparisons of growth paths. This approach rests on a basic assumption that social welfare can be measured as an aggregate, based on the sum of discounted utility of consumption of each individual in the economy. 78. Specifically, an identical isoelastic per capita welfare function was postulated for each of the seven income classes at each point in time. Let v denote the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption; let d denote the one-year subjective discount rate; and let t denote the number of years in the planning horizon. Then the intertemporal interpersonal social welfare function is defined as follows: T F yl1v W = t-l (1+ ) s=l s,t l-v ANNEX 18 Page 43 where s - l...s = 7 are consumer classes, and ns t is the number of persons having consumption level Ys,t in year t.I/ For vt= 0 the only objective is that of maximizing discounted aggregate consumption, regardless of income distribution. The higher the value of v, the more weight is placed on reducing the number of those in low income groups. The higher the value of d, the more weight is placed upon short, rather than long, term objective of the economy. 79. Once v and d are specified, it becomes possible to rank the policy alternatives discussed in Sections III and IV. Such a comparison is shown in Table 18.12. Two general comments should be made. In the first place, even though the percentage differences may seem small, their importance should not be minimized. Indeed given the high subjective role of dis- counting and strong preference for income equality (through the choice of v and d), these differences are actually quite significant. Second, the policies were also compared for a number of other parameter values 2/ Surprisingly, the overall rankings were quite stable, although the per- centage differences widened (lowered) when v or d was reduced (raised). 80. These results seem to confirm insights to be gained by examination of the growth paths themselves, and to lend support to the sector mission's recommendations. In particular, they suggest how important it is for both overall growth and income distribution to reduce divergences between domestic and world prices, whilst a policy of concentrating rural investment is the most effective of the 4 simulated agricultural policies in achieving rural transformation and stimulating overall agricultural production. Moreover, this is achieved without serious cost to the urban sector because the improved balance of trade allows urban investment to be maintained. The vulnerability of the economy to falling copper prices and rising costs, affecting both the urban sector and the possibilities for rural transform- ation, is also indicated. 1/ With the exception of the unemployed urban workers, the model itself computes the levels of private consumption for each group. To these must be added the relevant share of public consumption. For this purpose, we make the simple assumption that all Government consumption is allocated to each "family" in proportion to their relative incomes. Thus, ys,t includes both the value of private and pbblic consumption. While in terms of the simulation model, the income level of the un- employed is zero, they do manage to survive on the basis of transfers and income earned in an "informal" sector which is not directly modelled. Somewhat arbitrarily, we have set their level of private consumption to be identical with the 1972 level for traditional farmers. 2/ In all, tests were made for v = 1,2,3 and p = 4%,8%. ANN1EX 18 Page 44 Table 18.12: RANKING OF POLICIES FOR v = 2, d = 8% Policy Table As % of value Rank in basic case Basic case 18.1 100 8 Constant indirect tax rates 18.2 108 2 Tariff reduction 18.3 117 1 Public consumption growth rate - 8.5% 18.4 98 9 Public marginal 18.5 102 7 savings rate = .5 Increased public investment in small-scale farming 18.8 107 3 Increased public investment in commercial farming 18.9 103 6 Direct subsidy to small-scale farmers 18.10 104 5 RGA investment 18.11 106 4 ANNEX 19 Page i ZAMBIA AGRICULTURAL AND RURAL SECTOR SURVEY STATISTICAL ANNEX SECTION I AREA, POPULATION, EMPLOYMENT AND NATIONAL ACCOUNTS 1.1 Population and Population Density 1.2 Estimated Population of Urban Area, 1973 1.3 Land Area by Tenure Category, 1970 1.4 Land Utilization - Commercial Sector 1970/71 1.5 Farm Size Distribution of Expartriate & African Farms on State Land 1.6 Numbers of Farms, Farmers and Area on State Land 1.7 Gross Domestic Product at Current Producers' Values 1.8 Gross Domestic Product at Constant 1965 Producers' Values 1.9 Expenditure on the Gross Domestic Product in Purchasers' Values at Current Prices 1.10 Expenditure on the Gross'Domestic Product in Purchasers' Values at 1965 Constant 1.11 Wage Employment by Industry 1.12 Average Annual Earnings of Employees 1.13 Number of Families who are Engaged in Farming' Activities, 1970/71 1'.14 Number of Farm Households by Types of Agricultural Activities, 1970/71 1.15 Distribution of Households According to Agricultural Activities, 1970/71 SECTION II AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION: CROPS AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS 2.1 Quantities of Agricultural Marketed Production 2.2 Estimated Gross Value of Marketed Agricultural Production 2'.3 Production, Acreage and Yield of Major Agricultural Products, 1969/70 2.4 Summary of Crop Cutting Survey, 1970/71 2 .5 Marketed Maize Production 2.6 Marketed Production of Paddy 2 .7 Virginia Flue-Cured Tobacco Production 2.8 Barley Tobacco Production 2.9 Marketed Groundnut Production (Oil Producing Varieties) 2 .10 Production of Groundnuts in Eastern Province ANNEX 19 Page ii 2.11 Sugarcane and Sugar Production 2.12 Number of Cattle - Traditional Sector 2.13 Cattle Population, Beef Production, Imports and Consumption 2.14 Cattle Slaughterings - Graded 2.15 Cattle Slaughtered by Cold Storage Board and Private Butchers 2.16 Number of Pigs and Sheep - Traditional Secto.r 2.17 Pig Population and Pork Production, Imports and Consumption 2.18 Recorded Pig Slaughterings in Line of Rail Provinces 2.19 Intake and Sales of Milk by Dairy Produce Board 2.20 Dairy Produce Board Milk Intake: Volume, and Value by Area 2.21. Milk Production and Sales by State Dairies 2.22 Marketed Poultry Production 2.23 Poultry Production by Poultry Breeders SECTION III FISHERIES 3.1 Estimates of Fish Catches in Major Fishing Areas SECTION IV FOREIGN TRADE 4.1 Imports of Major Grain Products 4.2 Quantity and Cost of Imported Fertilizer 4.3 Exports of Hides and Skins 4.4 Export of Agricultural Commodities 4.5 Value of Imports of Agricultural Food Products 4.6 Import Values of Food and Other Commodities 4.7 Gross Value of Imports and Exports 4.8 Imports of Vegetable Products 4.9 Imports of Livestock and Livestock Products 4.10 Imports of Dairy and Fish Products 4.11 Exports of Major Agricultural Products 4.12 Net Imports (M) or Expotts (-) of Major Agricultural Commodities, 1964-73 SECTION V PRICES OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS 5.1 Producer Prices of Fertilizer 5.2 Gazetted Crop Producer Prices 5.3 Retail Prices of Selected Agricultural Commodities in Lusaka 5.4 Wholesale Price of Beef and Beef Products, 1974 5.5 Wholesale Prices of Other Meat and Meat Products, 197T 5.6 Statutory Minimum Producer Price of Beef 5.7 Maximum Statutory Retail Price of Beef 5.8 Guaranteed Minimum Pig Producer Prices 5.9 Guaranteed Milk Producer Prices ANNEX 19 Page iii -3- 5.10 Index Numbers of Consumer Prices: High Income Group: All Centres Combined 5.11 Index lNumbers o6f Consumer Prices: Low Income Group: All Centers Combined 5.12 Index Numbers of Wholesale Prices, 1966=100 SECTION VI OTHER TABLES 6.1 NAMBOARD Grain Storage Capacity, 1974/75 6.2 Number of Depots for Crop Intakes 6.3 New Registration of Motor Vehicles Table 1.]: POPULArT ION AIM POPULATION DENSITY Population 1263 Census 1969 Census 1973 Estimates Area 1973 Density Province (1,000) (1,000) Ar1e000) (l,____Km_) _erson Kmn) Central 505 713 876 116.29 7.5 Copperbelt 544 816 1,019 31.33 32.5 Eastern 480 510 549 69.10 7.9 Luapula 357 336 352 50.56 7.0 Northern 564 545 572 147.81 3.9 North-Wlestern 211 232 253 125.83 2.0 Southern 466 496 535 85.28 6.3 Western 363 410 459 126.hO 3.6 TOTAL 3,490 h,057 4,618 752.60 6.1 Note: The African-populati-on in Zambia is estimated to be increasing at a rateof 2.9% per annum while non-African population stays more or less constant. source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. H H ANNEX 19 Table 1.2 Table 1.2: ESTIMATED POPULATION OF TOWNS, 1973 (in 1000) Town Population Town Population Lusaka 381 Chipata 18 Kitwe 270 Kafue 16 Ndola 216 Choma 14 Chingola 140 Mongu 12 Mufulira 130 Kasama 11 Luanshya 116 Mansa 10 Kabwe 89 Mazabuka 7 Livingstone 54 Mbala 6 Chililabombwe 54 Solwezi 5 Kalulushi TOTAL: 1,590 Source: Ministry of Planning & Finance, Economic Report, 1973 ANNEX 19 Table 1.3 Table 1.3: LAND AREA BY TENURE CATEGORY, 1970 Category 31. December, 1970 000 hectares STATE LAND 4,859 Includes: Freehold 1,140 Leasehold 1,169 'Twnships 878 Forest Reserves and Protected Areas 945 Tribal Occupation 570 Inundated by Water 152 Unalientated 5 RESERVES 27,073 Includes: Protected Forest Areas 3,883 TRUST LAND 43,361 Includes: Forest Reserves and Protected Areas 4,401 TOTAL LAND AHEA 75,293 Source: Annual Report of the Lands Department. ANNEX 19 Table 1.4 Table 1.4: LAND UTILIZATION - COMMERCIAL SECTOR 1970/71 (1,000 ha) Copperbel t. & Central Southern Other Total Total Farm Area 465.4 507.7 174.0 1,147.1 Total Cleared Arable Land 73.2 57.4 2.3 132.9 Gross Cropped Land 37.6 24.6 0.6 62.8 Fallows 35.6 32.7 1.7 70.0 Pasture & Meadows 96.6 115.7 114.3 356.6 Other Arable Land 96.0 2L4.1 6.8 126.9 Land not suitable for Cultiva- 127.7 174.8 18.6 321.] tion Use not Specified 72.0 135.7 1.9 209.6 Source: CSO, Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 (First Report), Lusaka, May, 1974. Table 1.5: FARM SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF EXPATRIATE AND AFRICAN FARMS ON STATE LAND Expatriate Farms (size in ha) African Farms (size in ha) Less than 10 10-100 100-1,000 Over 1,000 Total Less than 10 10-100 100-1,000 Over 1,000 Total Central Chisamba - 2 52 52 106 - - 19 15 34 Kabwe - 3 29 12 44 - 3 12 3 18 Lusaka 19 106 161 69 355 21 70 54 11 156 Mkushi - - 82 27 109 - - 8 1 9 Copperbelt Chingola - 2 6 6 14 - 1 1 1 3 Mufurila 1 4 7 - 12 - 11 2 - 13 Ndola - 19 20 3 42 2 9 7 1 19 Eastern Chipata - 14 36 - 50 3 17 34 6 60 Northern Mbala - 6 6 2 14 2 5 20 1 28 Southern Choma - 1 20 39 60 - 2 14 13 29 Kalomo - - 16 51 67 - - 5 9 14 Livingstone 6 14 23 14 57 2 6 3 3 14 Mazabuka 1 1 68 39 109 1 1 24 10 36 Monze - 5 1 8 14 - 6 12 13 31 TOTAL: 27 177 527 322 1.053 31 131 215 87 464 Ssurce: MRD, Land Use Services Division. Table 1 6 NltNdgNS OF FA8MS, FA8MERS AND FARM AREA ON STATE I/ (Areas are in hettr-s) - a-Etriate African Private Co. Prastatele. Settleents Cooperatives Mining Forest Other Land Vacant Land Total Farms Farmers Ase- Farms Fa -e Ara Farms Ane Ferns A Acne Farms Ares Farms Ara Area Area Are Are re Central Chissmbh 106 62 107,209 34 26 28,433 23 24,083 21 20,721 1 1,641 1 1,886 - 5,203 21,593 210,769 Rebus 44 27 33,177 18 16 6,242 - - 4 4,441 - - 1 256 - 15,899 1,833 61,848 Lus..k 355 214 208,518 156 116 39,643 14 18,196 25 11,525 - - 2 2,067 - 66,800 - 346,749 Mkushi 109 80 102,871 9 8 5,546 - - 30 35,478 2 1,832 - - - - 1,496 147,223 Copperbdt Chingole 14 10 9,816 3 3 1,728 8 5,392 - - 2 244 1 134 15,514 - 6,546 - 39,374 Mofur l 12 11 1,623 13 13 1,328 - - - - - - - - - _ 258 - 3,209 Ndola./ 42 38 10,152 19 19 3,691 - - 1 2,835 - - I 160 15,402 259 5,853 20 38,372 Eastern Chipata 50 27 16,755 60 56 20,838 123 94,206 4 4,250 1 1,145 - 4 424 120,847 13 262,478 Northern MHbla 14 12 6,277 28 26 9,072 _ 13 13,895 - - - - - - 29 899 1.212 60,355 Southerm Chops 60 38 81,310 29 24 26,534 18 28,033 30 50,896 - _ 1 1,222 - - 19,794 668 208,457 Kalmo - 67 34 106,847 14 14 17,147 11 18,901 34 46,623 - _ 2 1,995 - - 3,549 422 195,484 Liviagetoom 57 44 32,452 14 12 4953 - - - - - _ - - 6,948 13,911 58,264 Mach. ke 109 40 102 128 36 30 - 29,422 29 38,977 20 25,095 29 31,180 3 5,688 - 4,693 1,296 238,479 Moose 14 12 12,886 31 25 26,235 -- 12 5171 8 9,328 - 8,682 1,539 73,843 TOTAL 1,053 649 832,021 464 388 220,812 103 133,582 313 320,888 46 48,475 13 14,553 30,916 4,683 294,971 44,003 1,944,904 1/ Survey gas isiti-lly carried out in 1970-71 period, and seo revis-oos were eade d-ring 1972. In mid-1974, new qoestion-iree were sent cot for which r-tur-s were satisfactory, eprept the Mbsls sad Copperhert are. Thu- the infarmati.n bhacld be coosid-red as opdatod as of mid-1974 accept for these two areas 2/ The private companies islude Anglo American, Zembesi Ranching,Farm Holding and Zbis Sugar Copanies. 3/ The parastatals include Agricultural Fi-ence Corporation, Tobacco Board of Z-.b-a, Cold Storage Board, other ososlotarhes 01 hurOA Deretopnent Lorpornilon aod setolomoct projects 4/ Other land iecludes to-nships, colleges, urbh lrands, railway leads, residents and ucsoified Government Iands. 5/ Inc1uding Citue feraing are. AhNEX 19 Table 1.7 Table 1 7 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PRODUCERS VALUES, CURRENT PRICES) (in 2.oO,OOl kwachal 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Total Gross Domestic Product 1,257.7 1,178.2 1,311.9 1,628 0 1,820.0 Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing: 132.0 150.3 158.4 157 0 171 5 1/ Comaercial Sector 1/ 37.4 49 0 55.4 51 0 56.5 Subsistence Sector 94.6 101.5 103.0 106.0 115.0 2/ Mining and Quarrying 462.4 300.3 324.0 568.0 622.0 Metal Mining 457.1 293.2 317.7 562.0 61.6.0 Other Mining Quarrying 5.3 7.1 6.3 6.0 6 0 Manufacturing 127.4 142.0 182.0 210.0 242.0 Food Manufacturing 17.5 20.4 96.7 114.1 126.7 Beverages and Tobacco 51.6 56.4 Textiles and Wearing Apparel 10.7 10.0 13.5 15.4 15.5 Wood & Wood Products, including Furniture 5.0 3.3 4.7 5,0 8.0 Paper, Paper Products, Printing and Publiahing 4.5 5.4 6.5 6,6 10 0 Rubber Products 3.2 4.9 20.5 27.9 33 4 Chemicals, Chemical, Petroleum & Plastic Products 6.3 6.5 Non-metallic Mineral Products 10.6 9.5 10.1 10.2 10.2 Basic-etal Products 2.5 2.2 3.1 3.3 5,3 Fabricated Metal Products, Machinery & Equipment 15.2 23.0 26.7 27.2 32.6 Other Manufacturing Industries 0.3 0.4 0.2 0 3 0 3 Electricity, Gas and Water 15.5 18.2 25.7 30.5 32 0 Construction 82.3 89.4 93.3 97 5 106.0 Wholesale and Retail Trade 119.3 113.7 140.7 155.0 186.0 Hotels and Restaurants 10.8 12.3 13.8 15.0 16.5 Transport, Communication and Storage 52.0 66.1 74.9 82.5 95.5 Rail Tr-nsport3/ 8.1 11.3 12.2 7 2 7.5 Road Transport 27.2 35.9 36.6 48,0 60 0 Other Transport and Storage 7.8 10.7 16.6 17.0 17 0 Post and Teleconnunication 8.9 8.2 9.5 10 2 11.0 Financial Institutions and Insurance 41.8 40.7 44.1 48 0 60,0 4/ Real Estate 37.3 39.2 38.4 40 5 41.5 Business Services 16.7 15.4 13.7 15.0 16.5 Comnnunity, Social and Personal Services 144.7 174.3 183.4 194.0 208.5 Public Administration and defence 62.6 81.9 89 4 92.0 102 0 Sanitary and Related Services 4.6 Education 5/ 40.4 46 1 46.1 52.6 52 0 Health 5/ 6/ 13.3 20.2 21.9 21.7 24 6 Recreational and Cultural Services 4.9 6.9 6.5 6.7 7.4 Personal and Household Services 18.9 19.2 19.5 21.0 72 5 Import Duties 32.1 36.7 41.8 38 0 50 0 Lesa Imputed Bank Service Charges 16.1 20.4 22 3 23.0 28 0 1/ Sales frtm the subsistence farmers are transferred -o gross output of the comneirral sector. 2/ Royalties paid to the Governsent are treated as indirect taxes. Smelting and refining are included in this sector. 3/ Road Transport includes oil pipeline and water transport. 4/ Real Estate Includes ownership of dwellings by private households, and administrative office buildings are not included; depreciation has been imputed for production account of Government 5/ Education and Health services of mine schools and mine hospitals are estimated at cost. 6/ Including religious organizations 7/ Provisional source. Central Statistical Office, Lusaka. ANNEX 19 Table 1 a Table 1.8 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (PRODUCERS' VALUES, 1965 PRICES) (in 1,000,000 Ewacha) 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, Adjusted for teens of trade 964.1 827.8 871.1 1,025.6 1,049.4 Adjustment for changes in terms of trade -34.2 -178.2 -229.7 -78.0 -66.2 TOTAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT 998.3 1,006 0 1,100.8 1,103.6 1,115.6 Agriculture, Foreatry and Pishing 109.5 112.0 118.2 114.5 117.0 Co-mercial Sector 27.5 29.6 35.0 30.5 32.0 Subsistence Sector 82.0 82.4 83.2 84 o 85 0 Mining and Quarrying 420.2 410.1 454.1 439.2 456.2 Metal mimnmg 416.0 407.0 451.8 437.0 454.0 Other mining 4.2 3.1 2.3 2.2 2.2 Mnnufacturing 93.1 98.5 119.6 132.5 147.0 Pond manufacturing 14.0 15.4 Beverages snd tobacco 31.3 Textiles and wearing apparel 8.8 8.2 10.7 12.0 11.8 Wood and wood products including Furniture 4.5 2.9 4.1 4.3 6,9 Paper, paper products, publishlng and printing 3.7 4.4 4.8 4.8 5 5 Rubber products 2.9 4.4 Chmicals, Chmical, petroleum and plasrti products 5.8 5.9 18.1 24.2 25.4 lon-netalliu maineral products 7.7 6.9 7.3 7.3 7.3 Basic natal produoto 1.8 1.6 2 0 2.1 3.4 Pabricated metal products machinery and equipment 12.2 17.2 18.5 18.3 21.1 Other nufacturing 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 Electricity, gas and water 16.2 19.5 27.5 28,6 28.7 Construction 64.3 66.5 65.3 66 0 57 0 Wh1les.le and retail trade 93.0 87.3 99.2 100 8 110 3 Hotels and restauranrt 8.5 9.5 9,7 9.8 9.8 Transport, Co-munication and Storage 41.0 49.9 52.4 57.5 63.4 Rail tronoport 6.4 8.5 8.2 4 9 4.9 Road transport 21.6 27.1 25.5 34.3 40.1 Other transport 6.2 8.1 11.6 11.6 11.6 Poets and taleco-eunication 6.8 6.2 7.1 6.7 6.8 Financial i.ntitationn and insurance 21.9 26.2 25.0 21.0 25.5 Rgol Esatra 33.1 32.5 31.4 32.0 32 5 13.0 13.5 9.6 9 8 9.8 B-sineso service 13.0 13.5 9.6 9.8 9.8 Co-nu-ity, 001ial and personal se-vines 116.9 127.5 132.4 123.4 126.2 Public adninistration sod defence 51.2 Sanitary and related services 3:8 59.9 64.8 58.1 61.1 Education 33.0 33.8 33 4 33 2 31 1 Health 10.9 14.8 15.8 13.7 14.8 Recrati.oal and cultural ser-ices 4.0 5 0 4.7 4.2 4 4 Perunna1 and household orvi-c 4. 14.0 13.7 14.2 14 8 Import dutien 27.0 29.2 31.5 25.5 28.5 Lees imputed bank service chargea 8.7 10.4 10.0 8 4 10.1 Errors and Oni.soso. -50.7 -65.8 -65.1 -48.6 -86.2 1/ Provisional Soulrce Centrel Statittical Office, Luosak. Table 1.9: GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (BY TYPE OF EXPENDITURE, CURRENT PRICES) (in 1,000,000 kwacha) 1/ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Government final consumption expenditure 198.5 272.6 283.0 307 340 Private final consumption expenditure 504.2 514.0 570.4 618 710 Increase in stocks -13.3 +47.4 +12.2 - +60 Gross fixed capital formation 353.4 369.3 416.2 435 520 Final consumption and gross capital formation 1,042.8 1,203.3 1,281.8 1,360 1,630 Export of goods and services 685.4 500.6 584.0 795 914 Less imports of goods and services 470.5 525.7 553.9 527 724 Gross domestic product at current purchasers' values 1,257.7 1,178.2 1,311.9 1,628 1,820 1/ Provisional Source: Central Statistical Office, Lusaka. crX Table 1.10: EXPENDITURE ON THE GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN PURCHASERS' VALUES AT 1965 CONSTANT (in 1,000,000 Kwacha) 1/ 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 Government final consumption expenditure 170.5 204.2 206.4 203.7 210.5 Private final consumption expenditure 384.2 375.1 390.1 396.6 418.0 Increase in stocks -9.4 37.0 9.2 - 42.0 Gross fixed capital formation 238.5 231.3 242.8 246.4 271.0 Final consumption and gross capital formation 783.8 847.6 848.5 846.7 941.5 Exports 609.2 576.7 669.7 608.7 585.5 Less Imports 394.7 418.3 417.4 351.8 411.4 Gross Domestic Product at 1965 prices 998.3 1,006.0 1,100.8 1,103.6 1,115.6 Adjustment for changes in terms of trade -34.2 -178.2 -229.7 -78.0 -66.2 Gross domestic product at 1965 prices adjusted for terms of trade 964.1 827.8 871.1 1,025.6 1,049.4 1/ Provisional Source: Central Statistical Office, Lusaka. 31 I/ Table 1.11: WAGE EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY (in 1,000 persons) 1972 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 % of Total African Employees Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 32.7 36.4 34.1 38.7 33.1 9.9 Mining, Quarrying 48.7 50.3 52.1 52.8 52.1 15.6 Manufacturing 30.5 32.0 35.2 39.0 39.8 11.9 Utility 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.6 4.4 1.3 Construction 61.4 59.7 66.2 63.1 66.2 19.8 Commerce 27.4 27.9 28.1 33.4 32.4 9.7 Transport, Communication 20.7 19.6 19.7 21.0 24.4 7.3 Financial Service 5.2 6.4 7.2 8.6 9.4 2.8 Social, Personal Services 59.7 65.0 70.1 78.7 72.3 21.6 TOTAL: 289.4 300.5 315.6 339.0 334.2 100.0 Non-African Employees Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 2.0 Mining, Quarrying 6.1 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 20.9 Manufacturing 2,6 2.6 2.9 3.0 2.7 10.5 Utility 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 1.7 Construction 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 10.5 Commerce 5.2 5.0 4.6 4.6 4.3 16.5 Transport, Communication 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.6 2.2 8.5 Financial Service 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.0 7.6 Social, Personal Services 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.3 5.7 21.9 TOTAL: 29.2 27.8 27.4 26.6 26.0 100.0 1/ Excluding domestic and other services. Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. H m K ANNEX 19 Table 1.12 1/ Table 1.12: AVERAGE ANNUAL EARNINGS OF EMPLOYEES (Kwacha) Afr;ir.n non-African 1970 1971 1972 1970 1971 1972 All Industry 878 977 960 4,962 5,635 5,500 Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries 322 354 376 4,326 4,249 4,515 Mining & Quarrying 1,480 1,569 1,491 6,982 7,336 6,971 Manufacturing 755 946 853 5,125 6,795 6,128 Electricity & Water 763 775 769 6,184 6,398 6,346 Construction 571 663 674 6,590 6,373 6,479 Distribution, Restaurants and Hotels 725 762 864 4,309 4,531 5,140 Transport & Communication 1,185 1,393 1,311 4,560 5,902 5,553 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 1,052 1,142 1,031 5,007 5,899 5,327 Community & Social Services 722 844 831 2,661 2,971 2,968 1/ Based on 4th Quarter; and cash earnings, excluding earnings in kind and employer's contribution to pension funds, etc. Source: Employment Enquiry, quoted in Economic Report, 1973, Ministry of Planning and Finance. ANNEX 19 Table 1.13 Table 1.13: NUMBER OF FAMILIES WHO ARE ENGAGED IN FARMING ACTIVITIES, 1970/71 Urban Peri-Urban Rural Total Central 23,700 3,800 72,600 100,000 Copperbelt 77,200 - 17,300 94,500 Eastern - 3,100 121,300 124,400 Luapula - 3,900 81,000 84,800 Northern - 3,400 120,100 123,500 North-Western - 4,200 53,000 57,200 Southern 7,800 4,800 78,500 91,000 Western - 2,700 88,800 91,500 TOTAL: 108,600 25,800 632,400 766,900 Urban: 10 large cities. Peri-Urban: Towns, which have the population of 30,000 or more Source: CSO, Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 (First Report), Lusaka, May, 1974 ANNEX 19 Table 1.14 Table 1.14: NUMBER OF FARM HOUSEHOLDS BY TYPES OF AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, 1970/71 No. of Marketing Household Total No. of Non-Farming Subsistence 1/ Household Household Household Crops Livestock Other Total Central 126,100 26,100 54,100 13,800 1,000 31,100 45,900 Copperbelt 132,000 37,500 60,400 20,100 300 13,700 34,100 Eastern 125,800 1,400 72,500 23,400 2,800 25,700 51,900 Luapula 85,800 1,000 40,700 16,400 600 27,100 44,100 Northern 124,800 1,300 66,600 18,800 500 37,600 56,900 North-Western 58,400 1,300 33,100 9,500 700 13,900 24,100 Southern 93,800 2,800 46,800 6,400 2,000 35,800 44,200 Western 95,000 3,500 61,600 12,700 1,900 15,300 29,900 TOTAL: 841,700 74,900 435,800 121,100 9,700 200,300 331,100 1/ Mixed farm or poultry producing farms. Source: CSO, Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 (First Report), Lusaka, May 1974. ANNEX 19 Table 1.15 Table 1 15 DISTRIBUTION OF HO1EHSOLDS ACCORDING TO AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, 1970/71 (in 1,000 Households) Central Copperbelt Eastern LU-pula Northern North-Western Southern Western TarAL hNher of Households Urbon Tot.1 48.4 114.7 ^ 9,2 - 172.3 Non-Famnig 24.7 37.5 - - - - 1.4 - _ 63.7 Non-Surplus Frning 18.7 54.1 - - - - 5.8 - 78.6 Peri-Urhbn Total 5.2 - 4.5 4.8 4 7 5.4 6.1 6.2 37 0 Non-Forming 1.4 - 1 4 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.3 3.5 11 2 Sen-Surplus Farnig 2.8 - 2.6 2.4 2.6 2.1 4.0 2.1 18.6 ura I Tot.l 7.6 17.3 121.3 81.0 120.1 53.0 78.5 88 8 632.4 Noo-Fsrni.g Non-Surplus Farning 32.6 6.3 69.9 38.3 64.0 31.0 37.0 59 5 338.6 Total of Urban, Peri-Urban & Rural Total 126.1 132.0 125.8 85.8 124.8 58.4 93.8 95 0 841 7 Non-Far=nng 26.1 37.5 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.3 2 8 3.5 74.9 Non-Surplus Farntng 54.1 60.4 72.5 40.7 66.6 33 1 46.8 61 6 435.8 Per.entage of Provlnnial-wise as of Total Houneholds Urban T.tel 28 67 - - - 5 - 100 Non-Farning 39 59 - - - - 2 - 100 Non-Surplus F-ring 24 69 - - - - 7 - 100 Per-Urb-n Total 14 - 12 13 13 15 16 17 100 Non-Farnfng 13 - 13 9 12 12 12 31 100 Non-Surplus Farning 15 - 14 13 14 11 22 11 1I0 RuralI Tots1 11 3 19 13 19 8 12 14 100 Non-FaInig -- - - - - - - 100 Non-Surplus Ferntng 10 2 21 11 19 9 11 8 100 T.tl of Urban, Peri-Urban & Sur-l Total 15 16 15 10 15 7 11 11 100 Non-Faming 35 50 2 1 2 2 4 5 100 Son-Surplus Fsrnig 12 14 17 9 15 8 11 14 100 tbte: 1. "Urban" refers to 10 principal cities: Lus.ka, Kit.e, Ndola, Mufulira, Chingola, Luanshya, LIvingston., Chilillbo-be, and Kanulushl. 2. "Pert-Urban" refers to population centers vhih hsd ante th.n 30,000. 3. "Non-Surplus" nears suhebitenne. Source CSO, Cen.us of Agricultur-, 1970/71 (First Report), I.noba. May 1974 Table 2.1: QUANTITIES OF AGRICULTURAL MARKETED PRODUCTION Comodity L 1964 1465 N66 1z96 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1IU3 1274* MALIZE Tons 204,270 263,000 348,720 383,080 233,830 273,990 135,200 399,950 616,554 460,480 450,000 TOBACCO: FLUE CURED Tons 10,960 6,600 6,566 4,950 6,280 5,020 4,790 5,910 5,530 6,230 7,160 BURLEY Tons 1,703 1,993 855 275 285 240 255 388 385 471 523 ORIENTAL Tons 297 526 213 131 114 75 8 4 - - - SUGAR CANE Tons - - - - 183,000 257,000 322,000 331,000 397,400 446,350 500,000 GROUNDNUTS Tons 3,630 6,740 11,530 4,810 5,390 7,820 3,270 5,970 6,480 2,960 5,000 SUNFLOWER SEED Tons - - - - - - - 16 163 1,050 3,500 SOYA BEANS Tons - - - - - - - - - 173 400 SEED COTTON: Tons 1,649 2,273 2,778 831 4,252 6,915 5,606 11,919 8,453 5,225 5,600 SORGUM Tons - - 24 727 3,545 1,181 545 90 212 34 350 FRUIT Tons 2,600 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,200 3,100 4,800 5,600 5,900 5,500 6,000 VEGETABLES Tons 13,500 13,000 14,100 15,200 15,500 17,700 21,000 24,100 27,700 20,000 25,000 CATTLE Head 71,000 69,000 63,000 55,000 47,000 49,000 68,000 68,000 72,443 90,000 n.a PIGS Head 16,000 17,000 20,000 22,000 25,000 27,000 35,000 34,000 32,000 36,000 n.a CHICKENS 1000 Head 650 905 1,410 2,100 3,200 3,800 4,000 4,425 5,500 6,100 n.a. TURKEY & DUCKS 1000 Head - - 27 35 40 46 50 25 40 30 n.a. EGGS Millions 17 22 27 36 54 93 99 108 115 123 n.a. HILK Tons 20,500 19,770 19,020 18,330 18.430 16,260 15,610 16,000 16,586 16,700 n.a. DAY OLD CHICKS 1000 Head - - - - 280 440 665 910 1,100 1,250 n.a. * Estiastes. Source: Planning Unit, Ministry of Rural Development. Table 2.2:ESTIMATED GROSS VALUE OF MARKETED AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION (in 1000 Kwacha) Commoditv 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 MAIZE 7,633 9,899 13,981 12,992 8,329 9,639 5,204 17,833 29,311 19,952 19,350 TOBACCO: FLUE CURED 5,619 3,973 4,431 4,791 4,228 3,902 3,841 4,782 4,934 5,347 6,11R BURLEY 669 639 267 75 126 122 143 218 221 224 - OTHER 201 296 112 55 52 32 4 2 - - - SUGAR CANE - - - - 1,210 1,698 2,127 2,186 2,607 2,950 3,000 GROUNDNUT 332 605 1,152 1,437 532 792 348 720 780 456 425 SUNFLOWER - - - - - - - 1 15 157 686 SOYA BEANS - - - - - - - - - 16 59 SEED COTTON 226 304 452 244 608 1,040 912 2,094 1,485 920 1,400 SORGUM - - - 89 183 61 28 5 9 2 19 FRUIT 150 137 143 166 158 220 353 477 500 470 500 VEGETABLES 1,150 1,105 1,325 1,550 2.161 2,361 2,613 3,064 3,355 3,050 3,300 CATTLE 3,200 3,800 3,970 3,740 3,950 4,170 5,510 5,710 6,261 7.780 n.a. PIGS 320 410 530 580 690 700 940 1,040 1,178 1,210 n.a. CHICKENS 444 667 1,176 1,800 3,520 4,180 4,400 4,868 6,050 6,820 n.a TURKEY & DUCKS - - 60 76 85 98 101 47 80 60 n.a. EGGS 530 675 940 1,200 1,710 2,950 3,300 3,600 4,370 4,940 na. MILK 1,350 1,320 1,220 1,350 1,410 1,320 1,310 1,390 1,645 1,677 n a. DAY OLD CHICKS - - - - 60 100 150 190 275 300 n a. TOTAL: 21,824 23,830 29,759 30,145 29,012 33,385 31,284 48,227 63,066 56,331 n a 1/ At current market prices, Source: Planning Unit, :Ainistry of Rural Development. r' . A) 1 AhJNEX I9 IC * 3C N 0C Cw C C l C C 0 C o C C C C Cj C 0~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C C C C C C C C C C 0 C C C C C M|~~~ ~~~~~~ ~ C| Ch Idb 0 sC N e r s o v *1 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ C C - 2 1le -Z N a^- 0 ~~~~~~ 0 : 0 0 0 :: 0 o : 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~I: C C C O C C C4 4 C C O 0 0 C O & - 'IIH - C .. C C CH C C , C C~~ ~ ~ ~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ C C C CIC C I;~~~~~~~~~.. C~ ~~~~~ ~ ~ ~ C C I C C C C C W 0 C C C C 0 0 C 000 C C o C , < _ o s C _ C O _ O Z C C 0 0 Z C % r / < C C Cl C C C C C 4 C C 4 Ci C C C 4 0 0 0 * Ut ~~~~~~~C C C O C ~ ~ ~ ~ C 4 0 0 0 C H O C Y Z C H C C 0 C C C~ ~~~~~~ ~~ ~~~~~ ~~ ~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~ CO . H-C C a ~~~~~~~~~~~~ C HI r0 C C HOC-CC~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~ OH-HA 2CC U~ ~ ~~~ ~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~ H- - CCC8C ANNEX 19 Table 2.4 Table 2.4: CROP YIELDS 1/ (SUMMARY OF CROP CUTTING SURVEY, 1970/71 -) (in kg/ha) Shelled Maize Millet Sorghum Beans Cassava Groundnut Central 1,574 3,057 938 1,452 2,511 777 Copperbelt 1 816 - 1,665 2,541 2,480 2,063 Eastern 1,332 1,483 787 696 927 956 Luapula 665 2,694 1,363 1,212 ls913 1,225 Northern 1,514 2,572 1,483 1,272 2,093 1,284 North-Western 1,634 3,601 1,392 1,514 2,272 1,045 Southern 1,089 - 756 938 - 1,016 Western 1,300 - 576 302 1,166 628 Average 1,363 2,541 1,120 1,212 1,883 1,136 1/ 1 bag = 80 kg for cassava or groundnuts 1 bag = 90 kg for other crops 1 ha = 2.47 acres Source: CSO, Census of Agriculture, 1970-71 (First Report), Lusaka, May 1974. Table 2.5: MARKETED MAIZE PRODUCTION (in 1000 90kg Bags) Harvest Year Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapala Northern North-Western Southern Western Total 1964 1,323.9 3.0 95.0 2.0 15.7 - 811.1 1.0 2,251 7 1965 1,889.2 3.9 80.3 4.1 19.6 1.2 899.8 1.0 2,899.1 1966 2,330.3 10.6 150.8 11.6 28.3 1.5 1,705.6 2.1 4,240 8 1967 2,326.3 20.1 89.5 14.9 69.0 17.3 1,680.5 5.4 4,222.7 1968 1,590.0 15.7 117.3 23.3 93.2 13.2 1,031.7 23.0 2,908.2 1969 1,322.2 27-6 26.1 36.7 113.8 28.3 1,443.6 21.9 3,020.2 1970 903.2 6.7 15.6 19.6 56.8 15-2 461-4 11.8 1,490.3 1971 2,604.4 33.1 152.0 25.4 63.8 33 1 1,504.2 27.8 4,443.8 1972 4,196.7 28.7 334.8 28.8 72.2 38.6 2,115.0 35.8 6,850.6 1973 I/ 2,510.1 132.5 505.9 15.6 59.0 25.7 1,170.6 14.7 4,434.0 1974 -/ 3,490.3 60.8 608.5 14.7 62 0 29.7 1,911.0 30.1 6,207.1 1/ MRD, Planning Unit. Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. PS1! 0J I-' Table 2.6: MARKETED PRODUCTION OF PADDY (in 80 kg bags) P R O V I N C E S Harvest Year Eastern Luapula Northern North-Western Western Total 1967 - 180 - 50 500 730 1968 10 680 80 30 390 1,190 1969 170 1,010 460 100 250 1,990 1970 10 670 1,140 90 170 2,080 1971 820 250 1,400 70 360 2,900 1972 800 810 1,370 50 150 3,180 I/ 1973 810 3,850 1,740 - 270 6,670 1/ Estimated. Source: Ministry of Rural Development. ON Table 2.7: VIRGINIA FLUE-CURED TOBACCO PRODUCTION Harvest No. of Reg. Area Hectares per Crop Marketed Average Yield Total Value Average Price Year Growers (hectares) Grower (ton) (kg/ha) (1000 k) (N/kg) 1964 332 10,441 31.4 10,962 1,050 5,619 51 3 1965 265 6,639 25.1 6,600 994 3,973 60 2 1966 246 6,868 27.9 6,566 956 4,431 67.5 1967 210 4,605 21.9 4,947 1,074 4,791 96.8 1968 242 5,924 24.5 6,279 1,060 4,228 67.4 1969 237 5,829 24.6 5,023 862 3,902 77.7 1970 221 5,467 24.7 4,792 877 3,841* 80.2* 1971 212 5,634 26.6 5,908 1,049 4,782* 80.9* 1972 225 4,920 21.9 5,532 1,124 4,924* 89.0* 1973 321 5,352 20.5 6,223 1,163 5,347* 85.9* 1974 n.a. 6,738 n.a. 6,201 920 6,118 98.7 * Including Subsidy. Sourc: Tobacco Board of Zambia. HD >4 Table 2.8: BURLEY TOBACCO PRODUCTION Harvest Year Area Crop Marketed Average Yield Total Value Average Price (hectares) (ton) (kg/ha) (1,000K) (n/kg) 1964 3,520 1,703 484 669 39.3 1965 3,202 1,993 66'2 639 32.1 1966 1,266 855 676 267 31.2 1967 547 275 50W2 75 27.5 1968 446 285 i640 126 44.1 1969 408 240 588 122 50.7 1970 436 255 584 143 56.2 1971 611 388 635 218 56.2 1972 569 385 676 221 57.3 1973 811 471 580 291 61.7 t974 749 430 574 379 88.2 Source: Tobacco Board of Zambia,. Table 2.9: MARKETED GROUNDNUT PRODUCTION (OIL PRODUCING VARIETIES) (In 180 lb/80 kg Bags) Provinces Harvest Year Central Southern Others Total Total in Tons 1964 5,160 4,460 6,580 16,200 1,296 1965 1,890 810 7,030 9,730 778 1966 1,000 880 3,230 5,110 409 1967 1,000 7,010 2,490 10,500 840 1968 1,050 4,770 1,250 7,070 566 1969 1,110 7,210 1,240 9,560 765 1970 2,690 4,740 340 7,770 622 1971 2,290 3,140 510 5,940 475 1972 3,340 1,570 130 5,040 403 1/ 1973 1,000 1,730 70 2,800 224 1/ Estimates. Source: Ministry of Rural Development. OX M 0 Table 2.iQ: PR,ODUCTION OF GROUNDNUTS IN EASTERN PlIQVINCE Harvest Year No. of 80 kg bags/180 lb bags In metric tons 1964 28,250 2,260 1965 72,830 5,826 1966 136,080 10,886 1967 170,840 13,667 1968 58,960 4,717 1969 86,180 6,894 1970 32,290 4,740 1971 68,720 5,498 1972 75,980 6,078 1973* 32,000 2,560 * Estimate: 1964-1970: 180 lb bag (shelled nuts) 1971-1973: 80 kg bag (shelled nuts). source: Ministry of Rural Development. Table 2.11: SUGARCANE AND SUGAR PRODUCTION Sugarcane Productions Area Yield Sugar Sugar (ton) (ha) (ton/ha) Production Yield Estate Farmers Total Estate Farmers Total Estate Farmers (ton) (ton/ha) 1968 175,721 7,692 183,413 1,406 77 1,483 125.0 99.9 21,509 14.5 1969 241,705 15,053 256,758 2,289 163 2,452 105.6 92.3 30,417 12.4 1970 304,641 17,016 321,657 2,659 212 2,871 114.6 80.3 40,132 14.0 1971 309,258 21,479 330,737 3,315 260 3,575 93.3 82.6 41,546 11.6 1972 372,328 25,035 397,328 3,421 244 3,665 108.8 102 7 51,118 13.9 1/ 1973 423,650 22,700 446,350 4,300 200 4,500 98.5 113.5 56.500 13.0 1/ Estimates. Source: Zambia Sugar Company. N) X H H 1/ Table 2.12: NUMBER OF CATTLE - TRADITIONAL SECTOR Total number of cattle of which: Cows Central Copper- Eastern Lua- Northern North- Southern Western Total & Bulls Calves Oxen Belt pula western Heifers 1964 107,566 3,110 173,807 n.a. 51,877 10,945 450,574 271,163 1,069,042 528,185 29,344 201,607 309,906 1965 115,758 2,909 172,181 2,761 49,593 12,474 475,466 283,655 1,111,858 542,259 38,502 215,413 315,683 1966 128,891 3,130 180,589 2,625 48,888 14,363 488,760 300,912 1,168,158 572,133 33,995 229,027 333,003 1967 138,544 4,534 185,657 2,741 47,285 16,992 517,181 329,026 1,242,243 607,525 36,780 240,594 357,344 1968 146,469 5,291 194,459 3,257 56,041 18,308 498,880 328,346 1,251,051 607,985 38,061 240,120 364,885 1969 162,637 4,341 196,729 4,357 60,909 21,798 567,291 349,271 1,357,333 663,570 40,580 262,668 390,515 1970 165,643 4,624 177,179 6,337 67,258 23,508 615,043 353,731 1,413,323 692,791 44,959 273,592 401,981 1971 168,845 5,963 161,619 9,131 81,795 30,873 607,320 338,646 1,444,192 718,991 47,022 272,394 405,785 1972 186,574 6,910 179,297 9,272 88,199 30,260 616,232 372,588 1,489,332 738,921 46,290 285,356 418,765 1/ Number of cattle held by the commercial sector is estimated to be 210,000 heads in 1972. 9ourcee )'D, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June IQ7L (Advanced Cony . ax Table 2.13: CATTLE POPULATION, BEEF PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND CONSUMPTION (in 1,000 head) 2/ Beef Consumption Cattle Population Domestic- ,/ Marketed 3/ Year Total Traditional Commercial-, Slaughterings Imports- Exports Consumption 1964 1,207 1,069 190 71 25 6 90 1965 1,302 1,112 190 69 16 1 84 1966 1,324 1,168 156 63 33 96 1967 1,407 1,242 165 54 39 - 93 1968 1,433 1,251 182 47 52 - 99 1969 n.a. 1,357 n.a. 49 56 - 105 1970 n.a. 1,379 n.a. 68 43 - 111 4/ 5/ 1971 1,627 1,444 183 68 66 - 134 4/ 1972 n.a. 1,489 n.a. 72 94 - 166 1973* n.a. n.a. n.a. 9 47 - 151 *Estimate 1/ Includes both beef and dairy cattle 2/ Includes only recorded official domestic slaughterings 3/ Includes imports of live cattle for slaughter. The beef imports are converted to a head basis assuming 181 Kg per carcass. 4/ Includes commercial cattle in all areas except line of rail 5/ Line of rail only including state owned cattle. I-F T6/ Un-recorded local consumption in 1973 is estimated to be 40,000 head. Source: Ministry of Rural Development Cold Storage Board Table 2.14: CATTLE SLAUGHTERINGS - GRADED (in head) 2/ "I ading by Source Grading by Typer/ Cold Storage Private TOTAL Super Commer- 3/ Year Board Butchers GRADINGS Choice Standard cial Vealers Others 1964 51,576 12,222 65,978 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1965 49,467 13,277 62,744 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1966 39,556 15,293 54,849 14,580 12,453 24,097 2,588 1,131 1967 29,035 17,635 46,670 15,430 10,984 17,042 2,391 823 1968 20,604 13,495 34,099 7,831 12,722 12,141 1,078 327 1969 21,735 15,144 36,879 7,998 14,480 13,082 981 338 1970 37,205 17,165 54,370 9,468 20,307 21,580 1,264 1,751 1971 29,328 22,466 51,794 10,839 20,048 19,081 1,007 729 1972 29,382 21,401 50,783 14,080 17,352 17,657 700 984 1973 56,514 21,971 78,485 18,944 30,357 27,362 539 1,283 1/ C.S.B. slaughterings include slaughterings of live imported cattle. 2/ The grading structure was changed in March 1965, January 1968 and April 1972. The grading figures for 1964 and 1965 are not given since they are not comparable with the later figures. 3/ Others include cattle condemned or detained. Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. Cold Storage Board ~ v GSO, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulledin, June 1974 (Advanced Copy) Table 2.15: CATTLE SLAUGHTERED BY COLD STORAGE BOARD AND PRIVATE BUTCHERS (in head) Year Western Southern Eastern Northern Copperbelt Central Luapula North-Western Total 1/ Cold Storage Board- 1964 - 25,261 - - 7,307 12,755 - - 45,323 1965 - 21,661 - - 8,948 9,238 - - 39,847 1966 - 20,836 - - 2,331 6,019 - - 29,186 1967 - 14,478 - - 2,878 5,191 - - 22,547 1968 - 7,194 - - 561 12,829 - - 20,584 1969 - 5,404 1,853 - 351 14,127 - - 21,735 1970 - 15,889 3,527 - 131 16,358 - - 35,905 1971 - 12,748 3,668 - 346 12,318 - _ 29,080 1972 - 12,197 2,712 - 706 13,520 - - 29,135 Private Butchers - Graded 1964 - n.a. n.a. - n.a. n.a. - - 12,222 1965 - 27 - - 913 12,227 - - 13,277 1966 - 12 - - 1,171 14,110 - - 15,293 1967 - 29 - - 3,370 14,236 - - 17,835 1968 - 32 - - 2,114 11,349 - - 13,495 1969 - 80 - - 1,702 13,362 - - 15,144 1970 - 54 - - 1,470 15,641 - - 17,165 1971 - 36 164 - 5,983 16,283 - - 22,466 1972 - 186 44 - 5,927 15,244 - - 21,401 Private Butchers - Ungraded 1964 3,280 3,790 3,310 1,200 1,690 140 - - 13,410 1965 3,350 3,820 5,280 1,250 2,020 640 - - 16,360 1966 4,430 4,210 5,810 1,670 1,500 530 140 - 18,290 1967 3,340 3,650 3,490 1,790 730 630 120 - 13,750 1968 3,200 3,660 3,310 2,040 570 400 210 - 13,390 1969 2,990 3,250 2,920 1,460 1,000 - 280 - 11,900 1970 2,560 3,180 2,220 2,080 2,880 - 220 2,060 15,200 1971 2,770 3,500 2,480 1,940 3,170 500 220 1,420 16,000 1972 3,690 4,610 3,200 3,470 5,000 530 - 1,160 21,660 Total Slaughtered 1964 3,280 29,0512/ 3 23102/ 1,200 8,997-2/ 12,8952 - - 70,955 1965 3,350 25,508 5,280 1,250 11,881 22.215 - - 69,484 1966 4,430 25,058 5,810 1,670 5,002 20,659 140 - 62,769 1967 3,340 18,157 3,490 1,790 6,978 20,057 120 - 53,932 1968 3,200 10,886 3,310 2,040 3,245 24,578 210 - 47,469 1969 2,990 8,734 4,773 1,460 3,053 27,489 280 - 48,779 1970 2,560 19,123 5,747 2,080 4,481 31,999 220 2,060 68,060 1971 2,770 -16,284 6,312 1,940 9,499 29,101 220 1,420 67,546 1972 3,690 16,993 5,956 3,470 11,633 29,294 - 1,160 72,196 1/ Cold Storage Board figures exclude imported cattle from Botswana and slaughtered at Livingstone abattoir 2/ Excludes graded slaughted cattle by private butchers Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June 1974 (Advanced Copy). G Table 2.16: NUMBER OF PIGS AND SHEEP - TRADITIONAL SECTOR (in head) Central Copperbelt Eastern Luapula Northern North Western Southern Western Total Zambia Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Sheep Pigs & Pigs & PiRs & Pigs & Pigs & Pigs & Pigs & Pigs & Pigs & Goats Gosats Goats Goats Goats Goats Goats Goats 1964 307 2,491 143 989 47,411 49,380 n.a. - 322 23,049 2,296 7,995 10,989 89,745 340 1,121 61,808 174,770 1965 350 1,754 125 370 49,000 56,673 17 15,676 173 11,459 4,721 9,989 11,432 88,820 419 607 66,121 179,978 1966 146 2,961 268 736 63,438 61,337 23 9,301 250 9,077 4,088 2,907 10,810 100,119 605 779 79,219 196,200 1967 334 2,611 632 323 70,145 75,691 43 8,950 235 6,880 4,317 14,808 11,850 108,258 920 904 88,376 218,425 1968 386 1,657 225 949 60,913 71.479 207 13,165 1,381 9,690 4,346 14,476 12,051 100,528 735 644 80,244 212,588 1969 462 978 253 1,064 56,085 65,457 466 22,931 2,257 9,914 4,421 11,636 16,353 136,060 1,857 1,352 82,154 250,382 1970 1,149 6,301 558 803 52,942 71,712 454 26,331 2,650 17,093 4,547 13,956 16,368 150,331 1,344 1,660 80,012 288,187 1971 813 6,940 419 1,113 55,721 60,796 652 28,817 2,889 21,973 5,242 15,117 18,522 142,146 1,947 1,964 86,204 283,894 1972 1,184 7,770 1,219 1,685 53,118 64,227 354 21,205 1,822 25,656 7,736 15,735 13,724 137,550 1,655 1,444 80,812 279,876 Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June 1974 (Advanced Copy). m X Table 2.17: PIG POPULATION AND PORK PRODUCTION, IMPORTS AND CONSUMPTION (in 1,000 head) Recorded Pig Consumption - Domestic Pig Population Marketed Year Total Traditional Commercial Slaughterings Imports Consumption 1965 74 66 8 17 10 27 1966 89 79 10 20 25 43 1967 97 88 9 22 18 40 1968 92 80 12 25 18 43 1969 n.a. 82 n.a. 27 26 53 1970 n.a. 80 n.a. 35 19 54 1971 106 86 20 34 15 49 1972 93 86 n.a. 33 17 50 1973* n.a. 101 n.a. 35 11 46 * Estimates 1/ Estimates by the Veterinary Department 2/ Includes recorded official slaughterings only; figures of illegal and home consumption slaughter are not available. 3/ Import-figures- were conve-eted to head basis assuming 54 kg per carcass. 4/ Includes line of rail commercial farmers only. Source: Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. ' H . H Table 2.18: RECORDED PIG SLAUGHTERINGS IN LINE-OF-RAIL PROVINCES (in head) Slaughtering by Provinces Slaughtering by: Southern & Central Copperbelt - Total ZAPP Private I1965 13,501 3,323 16,824 10,141 6,683 1966 16,069 2,237 18,306 12,117 6,189 1967 17,068 2,924 19,992 12,841 7,151 1968 17,101 5,145 22,246 13,607 8,639 1969 19,160 5,644 24,804 14,430 10,334 1970 25,838 7,290 33,128 21,263 11,865 1971 22,565 9,820 32,385 17,267 15,118 1972 21,078 10,972 32,050 16,859 15,191 1973 26,176 9,112 35,288 21,388 13,900 N,B. All figures refer to pig slaughtering carried out at officially recognized markets F or abattoirs; illegal, farm and village slaughterings are excluded. source: 'Ministry of Planning and Finance, Economic Report, 1973. 0-. AIINEX 19 Table 2.19 Table 2.19: INTAKE AND SALES OF MILK BY DAIRY PRODUCE BOARD (in 1,000 liters) Fresh wholemilk Milk Sales by D.P.B. to Consumers sold to D.P.B. Fresh Fortified Year by producers Wholemilk Wholemilk Total 1964 16,020 8,492 - 8,492 1965 18,403 10,650 2,089 12,739 1966 17,602 10,075 7,727 17,802 1967 16,948 9,140 13,125 22,265 1968 17,061 9,963 12,399 22,362 1969 15,225 9,762 15,657 25,419 1970 14,563 11,424 16,374 27,798 1971 14,505 13,080 18,196 31,276 1972 14,638 12,766 20,079 32,845 1973 14,793 n.a. n.a. n.a. Source: Dairy Produce Board. Table 2.20- DAIRY PRODUCE BOARD MILK INiTAKE: VOLUME, AND VALUE BY AREA Total Intake Midlands Copperbelt Mazabuka Area Av. Av. Av. Av. Producer Producer Producer Producer Volume Volume Price Volume Value Price Volume Value Price Volume Value Price 1,000 1,000 per liter 1,000 1,000 per liter 1,000 1,000 per liter 1,000 1,000 Per liter Period Liters (Kuacha) (Ngwee) Liters (Kwacha) (Ngwee) Liters (Kwacha) (Ngwee) Liters (Kwacha) (Ngwee) 1967 17,125 1,188 6.9 6,726 450 6.7 2,828 231 8.2 7,570 507 6.7 1968 17,095 1,295 7.6 6,003 493 8.2 3,121 250 8.0 7,971 552 6.9 1969 15,406 1,235 8.0 6,181 456 7.4 2,467 222 9.0 6,758 556 8.2 1970 14,563 1,222 8.4 5,504 450 8.2 2,695 250 9.3 6,361 522 8.2 1971 14,505 1,271 8.8 6,003 517 8.6 3,122 297 9.5 5,381 457 8.5 1972 14,789 1,477 10.0 5,788 554 9.6 4,359 477 10.9 4,642 446 9.6 1973 14,828 1,536 10.4 5,783 628 10.9 4,595 507 11.0 4,450 399 9.0 Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June 1974 (Advanced copy). 71S M - . 0 ANNEX 19 Table 2.21 Table 2.21: MILK PRODUCTION AND SALES: (DAIRIES RUN BY PROJECTS DIVISION ONLY) (in 1,000 liters) 1971 1972 1973 Dairy Production Sales Production Sales Production Sales Kasama 113 95 168 118 143 1,104 Mansa 195 150 216 144 157 104 Solwezi 107 91 212 135 215 130 Chipata 226 203 367 281 384 350 Mongu 63 57 113 90 84 59 Total Rural 703 597 1,076 768 990 755 Kafubu 495 433 979 866 1,004 880 TOTAL: 1,198 1,030 2,055 1,634 1,994 1,635 Source: Projects Division, Ministry of Rural Development. Table 2.22: MARKETED POULTRY PRODUC'TION Dressed or Live Day old Chicks Eggs Chicken For Fxnort Turkey and Ducks Total Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Quantity Value Value Year 1,000 Eggs K1,000 1,000 Birds K1.000 1,000 Birds Kl.000 1.000 Birds Kl.000 Kl,000 1964 17,400 530 650 444 - - - - 974 1965 21,600 675 905 667 - - - - 1,342 1966 27,000 940 1,410 1,176 - - 27 60 2,116 1967 36,000 1,200 2,100 1,800 - - 35 76 3,076 1968 54,000 1,710 3,200 3,520 280 60 40 85 5,375 1969 93,000 2,950 3,800 4,180 440 100 46 98 7,328 1970 99,000 3,300 4,000 4,400 665 150 50 101 7,951 1971 108,000 3,600 4,425 4,868 910 190 25 47 8,705 1972 115,200 4,370 5,500 6,050 1,100 275 40 80 10,775 1973 123,500 4,940 6,200 6,820 1,250 300 30 60 12,120 Source: Senior Poultry Office, Ministry of Rural Development. ANNEX 19 T able 2.23 Table 2.23: POULTRY PRODUCTION BY POULTRY BREEDERS (in 1,000 heads) Year Pullets Broilers Cockerels Total 1967 363 1,515 277 2,155 1968 572 2,349 492 3,413 1969 595 3,041 522 4,058 1970 688 3,778 502 4,968 1971 638 4,395 570 5,603 1972 783 5,263 649 6,695 1973, 915 5,822 771 7,508 Source: MRD. Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June 1974 (Advanced Copy). Table 3.1: ESTIMATES OF FISH CATCHES IN MAJOR FISHING AREAS (in Tonnes, Fresh Weight Equivalent) Lake Lake Mweru/ Lake Kafue Lake Lukanga Lake Period Bangweulu Luapula River Tanganyika River Mweru Wantipa Swamp Kariba Total 1966 7,814 7,230 4,040 6,592 1,672 1,097 1,158 29,085 1967 7,409 5,747 7,104 2,894 2,665 1,423 790 28,232 1968 7,043 5,804 6,331 3,953 3,704 2,068 1,137 30,040 1969 7,409 5,881 4,719 5,728 4,125 1,846 1,085 30,793 1970 7,788 5,596 6,857 5,558 4,216 2,183 2,082 34,280 1971 7,278 6,360 4,980 4,928 3,825 2,290 1,477 31,138 1972 8,307 6,915 4,718 4,752 5,812 2,681 1,577 34,762 source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June, 1974 ( Advanced Copy ) t31 X1 L1 DIX Hl, ANNIEX 19 Table I4. Table 4i1: IpMPOTS OP MAjOR GRAIN pRioDCTS C onm dity 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Quantities (in tons) Wheat in the grain 18,940.1 25,921.7 34,776.8 30,276.4 58,588.9 45,855 3 106,905.6 71,167.9 110,142.2 69,823 7 Rice in the grain 1,540.3 2,228.5 3,213.5 3,317.5 3,536.8 4,225.0 4,617 7 6,885.5 5,577 3 2 719.5 Barley in the grain - 0.4 0.2 0.3 1.1 - - 0.7 - 4 4 Maize in the grain 20,851.4 383.6 14,670.1 46.8 21.6 70,985.2 31,161 7 261,728.8 63,224 5 - Rye in the grain - - - - - - - 0 9 - 4 8 Oats in the grain 300.5 269.0 219.9 300.0 218.2 135.4 320 1 317.8 0.2 - Sorghum in the grain - 11,707.5 10,732.8 5,668.2 3,625.2 2,271.8 187.8 2,050.1 1,929.1 459 1 Cereals, other in the grain 6,946.8 346.2 - 257.3 - - 160.5 116 5 585.3 1 2 Flour of wheat or melain 1,460.9 2,921.0 7,563.9 10,311.9 2,888.6 1,161.0 15.3 8,217.7 3,277.5 9,682.1 Groats & meal of wheat, other04 ,0.05 Cornflour - 49.7 57.1 86.4 87.0 106.2 45.0 39.4 68.6 84 3 Prepared cereal: cornflakes etc., 378.5 328.7 - 354.1 188.9 24.3 282.7 213.2 351 2 - Malted Barley - 3,004.4 - 4,211.8 3,662.3 2,798.9 9,107 4 10,039.4 10,594 3 7,863 8 Malted cereals & malt other 2,600.6 47.5 - 2,551.8 2,655.6 1,852 7 2,105.8 878.7 1,297.0 - Macaroni, Spaghetti & similar products 194.3 232.9 285.3 220.3 323.9 353.2 146.6 311.8 259.0 - Value (in 1.000 Kwacha) Wheat in the grain 1, 015.6 1,216.6 1,7714.6 1,651.0 2,939.2 3,006.9 4,238 2 3,515 4 4,515 4 3,121 0 Rice in the grain 180.0 208.2 395.0 484.2 522.9 674.8 725 2 1,069 9 801.7 501.3 Barley in the grain - 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 - - 0 0 - 0.5 Maize in the grain 893.6 17.8 192.6 2.6 3.2 3,090.8 1,361.7 18,276. 5 3,201.1 - Rye in the grain - - - - - - - 0.2 - 0.8 Oats in the grain 13.14 15.14 11.2 16.5 12.2 7 0 16.1 11.7 0 1 - Sorghum in the grain - 14714.4 1455.6 242.4 228.7 136.3 12 4 92.9 111.8 31.3 Cereals, other in the grain 318.6 15.2 - 10.6 - - 7.8 6 7 20.1 0.3 Flour of wheat or nelsin 117.2 217.0 5145.14 768.2 185.5 103.9 2 2 962.4 318.3 809 1 Grnate & meal of wheat, other - - - - - - - 0.5 0 0 0.2 Cornflour -9.6 11.2 9.7 11.8 12.8 11.4 5.2 11.9 11 5 Prepared cereal; comnflakes etc.. 1214.0 131.0 - 155.4 80.8 6.8 115 6 89 8 150.8 - Malted Barley - 302.8 - 398.5 342.3 246.5 659.3 985 9 1.182 5 850 0 Malted cereals & mait other 226.2 6.2 - 269.8 245.2 172.6 263.8 70 0 152.2 - Macaroni, Spaghetti & similar products 55.6 63.6 714.0 67.4 77.5 98 0 42 5 86 3 73.3 - Unit Value (K/ton) Wheat in the grain 54 146 52 55 50 66 40 49 42 45 Rice in the grain 116 126 122 146 148 160 157 155 144 184 Barley in the grain - 166 160 155 192 - - 77 - 12 3 Maize in the grain 142 146 -56 146 44 44 70 51 Rye in the grain - - - - - - - 172 - 171 Oats in the grain 414 58 52 55 56 52 50 37 509 - Sorghum in the grain - 140 142 43 63 60 66 45 58 68 Cereals, other in the grain 46 1414 - 41 - - 49 58 52 2 26 Flour of wheat or melsin 80 714 72 74 64 90 142 117 116 84 Groats & meat of wheat, other -- - - - - 229 298 474 369 Cornflour - 1914 196 112 135 120 253 131 1 73 136 Prepared cereal; cornflakes etc.. 328 398 -439 428 282 409 421 429 Malted Barley - 100 -95 93 88 72 98 11 108 Malted cereals & malt other 86 132 -106 92 93 125 80 117 - Macaroni, Spaghetti 6 similar products 286 272 260) 306 239 218 290 2 77 283- Source: CSO, Annu.al Statement of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer Printout. Table 4.2: QUANTITY AND COST OF IMPORTED FERTILIZER Landed Cost in Lusaka (tuantit (ton) (K/ton) Total Larided Cost (K) Commodity Nutrient 1972/713 1973/7 1973l71 1972/73 1973/7 Tobacco Mixtures: A 2-18-15 360 460 121.29 153.40 43,664 70,564 c 6-18-12 11,907 1,000 70.09 157.00 834,610 157,000 V 4-18-15 3,000 3,500 79.43 165.00 238,300 577.P500 Maize Muixtures: R. 20-20-0 15,000 12,500 97.28 149.80 1,459,200 1,872,500 X 20-10-5 33,312 27,002 92.8C 1-4.1? 3,91,+4C0 4,433,130 D 10-20-10 30,000 22,600 122.34 156.00 3,670,200 3,525,600 Nitrogenous Fertilizer ailphate of Ammonia 21-0-0 4,000 5,000 63.46 145.20 253,840 726,000 Sodiun Nitrate 16-0-0 500 500 87.04 130.00 43,520 65,000 Urea 46-o-o 25,500 15,000 103.31 155.33 2,634,300 2,32',9.9 Phosphate Fertilizer Single Supers C-9-0 1 ,500 - 66.27 - 9,400 - Triple Supers 0- 44-0 1,200 3,000 118.37 160.00 142,Q44 480,000 Potash Fertilizer Potassium Chloride 0-0-60 600 800 112.64 130.00 67,584 104,000 PotassIum Sulphate 0-0-50 894 250 56.7 124.00 50.72Q 31.000 TOTAL: 127,773 91,610 98.84 156.89 12,420,782 1i 372,2LP rD> SR n Source: MR~D, Planning Unit. Table 4-3: EXPORTS OF HIDES AND SKINS (in number) SITC 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 21111 Hides, Bovine, Equine, Suspension Dried - 3,419 4,748 3,990 - - 90 48 225 110 21112 Hides, Bovine, Equine, Greund Dried - 6,534 5,049 8,605 7,637 1,306 - 111 254 5,017 21113 Hides, Bovine, Equine, Dry, Salted - 11,243 16,610 26,306 13,941 53,645 6,055 17,204 22,450 192,599 21114 Hides, Bovine, Equine, Wet 54,435 52,421 38,636 31,919 57,691 86,440 38,349 42,500 52,975 20,940 21119 Hides, Bovine, Equine, Other 40,000 76,932 17 142,448 4,499 - 84 21 396 1 21121 Skins, Calf, Suspension Dried 5,992 631 - - - - - - - 21122 Skins, Ground Dried - 1,000 _ - - - - 51 - - 21123 Skins Dry Salted - 3,151 17 - - 240 634 680 100 2,672 21124 Skins, Calf, Wet - 124 80 - - 346 723 - - - 21129 Skins, Calf, Other - 188 20 - - 477 27,239 400 610 - TOTAL: 100,427 155,643 65,177 213,268 83,768 142,454 73,174 61,015 77,010 221,339 Source: CSO, Annual Statement of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer Prinout. ANNEX 19 Table 4.4 Table 4.4: EXPORT OF AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES 1/ Day-old- Tobacco Maize Chickens Timber 1,000 1.,ooo 1,000 1,000 1,000 Ton K Ton K Head K K 1964 12,303 5,664 - - 816 1965 9,716 4,862 47,270 1,894 - - 918 1966 7,264 4,522 39,891 1,796 257 53 684 1967 4,449 3,698 198,097 8,749 193 42 599 1968 3,541 2,735 63,988 2,838 203 41 638 1969 3,768 3,163 8,411 374 472 86 666 1970 4,041 2,852 60 - 774 133 529 1971 5,212 3,512 8,598 177 912 156 423 1972 4,181 2,737 1,896 100 1,297 222 100 1973 5,048 4,758 50,086 2,643 1,192 211 5 2/ 1974 11,773 3,023 48,956 6,515 568 116 n.a. 1/ CSO, Annual Statement of External Trade 1972 and 1973 Computer Printout- / Only Jaxiuary through June of 1974. Source: CSO, Monthly Digest of Statistics, July 1974. Table 4.5: VALUE OF INPCRTS OF AGRICULTURAL FOOD PRODUCTS (in 1,000 Kwacha) STTC Division uimber Commoditv 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 00 Live Animals 476 568 198 119 139 364 439 451 221 01 Meat and Meat Preparations 1,470 2,745 10,537 1,580 6,681 4,486 4,699 9,193 5,244 02 Dairy Products and Eggs 1,119 1,484 2,134 1,674 2,123 3,618 3,807 3,528 3,555 03 Fish and Fish Preparations 882 989 1,580 1,703 3,048 2,860 2,655 2,896 1,536 04 Cereals and Cereal Preparations 2,832 4,141 4,796 5,294 8,770 8,770 26,157 11,784 6,011 05 Fruits and Vegetables 1,874 2,295 3,912 3,152 3,234 2,992 2,619 2,369 1,472 06 Sugar and Sugar Preparations 4,926 1,993 2,694 2,306 1,793 2,213 1,836 1,551 1,519 08 Feeding Stuff for Animal (Excluding Unmilled Cereals) 325 604 435 549 1,049 1,243 1,415 1,481 1,439 09 Miscellaneous Food Preparations 1,469 1,241 1,594 1,726 2,215 2,485 2,929 2,634 2,191 22 Oil-Seeds, Oil Nuts and Oil Kernels 226 15 12 35 38 28 56 54 17 41 Animal Oils and Fats 243 485 374 383 328 538 1,057 581 634 42 Fixed Vegetable Oil and Fats 953 1,734 1,944 1,519 2,486 3,480 3,373 3,095 3,503 TOTAL: 16,688 18,293 30,209 20,039 31,906 33,077 51,044 39,618 31)238 CD{ S >Z Source: MRD, Planning Unit. o ANNEX 19 Table 4.6 Table 4.6: IMPORT VALUES OF FOOD AND OTHER COMMODITIES (in 1,000 K) Beverage Foodl/ Tabacco Other Total 1964 14,264 2,890 139,28P 156,438 1965 16,532 2,804 191,406 210,742 1966 19,788 3,026 223,302 246,116 1967 21,372 2,127 282,851 306,350 1968 24,129 2,171 298,884 325,184 1969 30,411 2,196 279,190 311,797 1970 30,451 1,175 309,085 340,71] 1971 18,193 1,417 349,672 399.282 1972 37,138 1,250 364,083 102,471 1973 2L,344 973 321,550 346,867 1974 Jan - June 20,183 554 205,968 226,705 1/ SITC classification 0. Source: CSO, Monthly Dig; xt of Statistics, July, 1974. ANNEX 19 Table 4.7: GROSS VALUE OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS Table 4.7 (in 1000 K) Exports Imports Domestic Re-Export Total Total Imports Net Export 1964 326,872 8,646 335,518 156,438 179,080 1965 375,096 5,198 380,294 210,742 169,552 1966 490,332 3,126 493,458 246,116 247,342 1967 467,016 2,993 470,009 306,350 163,659 1968 540,744 3,671 544,415 325,184 219,231 1969 754,449 12,040 766,489 311,797 4'54,692 1970 710,388 4,576 714,964 340.711 374.253 1971 480,011 5,166 485,177 399,282 85,895 1972 536,043 5,521 541,564 402,471 139,093 1973 738,004 3,952 741,955 346,867 395,089 1974 Est. 841,000 5,000 846,000 500,000 3L6,000 Source: CSO, Monthly Digest of Statistics, Sept. 1974. CSO, Balance of Payments Esti.ates (Unpublished Tables). 00040 000 04 0 0000. 000000 - . 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'0000 00 U.OUU U U 001010 0.1000 00 COO g  001000 . 010 10.00000010. 00000 - U0 10.04010000. 000010 - 00 U U00000 010.0100 0100 100000 U000011.U10.-. wO 0103. 10010101010 *00000 010-000 010 1000 UOUUOOOOUO 0100 U 010 U 000101000000 CoO U UU 0101000101010000100 10100 0 000 00UOO000U0UUU 00100000.0.10 UCOOUOUUU0U 0 0010U0U 00.0 U 000U00000)0 0010 OUUUUUUOUOOOU 100100010 UOOUOOG.OUUCOOO 10 100101.01>000000100100000000 10000010 440 0 U.000.44.50000U.000..S>U.OU.> 0 U.000..SHQOOOU.4.0>A001004 0 00.40..S0.000010.00040U.OU.000 ANNEX 19 Table 4.9 Table 4.9: IMPORTS OP LIVESTOCK AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTS Commodity 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Quantity (in tons) Bulls not for slaughter 1/ - 29 53 99 34 32 141 72 131- Cow 6 calves not for slaughter - 205 1 165 75 102 212 206 762 15 Cattle for slaughter 1/ 4,081 10,777 11,071 25 - 18 2,575 1,973 368 735 Pigs not for slaughter j/ - 58 33 21 - - 54 3 282 136 Day-old chicks 1/ - 405,060 248,780 252,438 63,499 72,513 29,424 29,759 1,729,012 237.075 Beef, fresh - 13.8 70 9 198.7 239.3 2941a. 232.5 112 3 - - Beef, frozen - 14.8 356.2 2,972.2 5,585.5 8.231 3 4,187.6 3,539 8 12,107.7 6,184.4 Beef, chilled - 2/ 921.8 2,800.3 1,823,2 2,352.1 1,311.2 570.7 1,715.7 1 476 4 69.2 Veal, fresh, frozen or chilled 2,362.1 - - 33.5 - - - 9 9 - - Mutton , fresh, frozen or chilled - 41.5 - - 381.9 - 30.5 8.7 22 1 0.8 Lamb, fresh, frozen or chilled - 576.3 -- 670.1 1,006.3 401.8 442 7 736 1 338.8 Pork, fresh, frozen or chilled 662.2 468.9 -- 385 1 1,066.2 405.7 434.6 425 5 774.8 Beef, or veal offal - 27.7 225.9 827.4 1,193.3 260.3 2,029 6 1,542 4 3,395.9 766.7 Pork offal- 16.7 21.2 1.4 12.1 3.9 3.3 2.1 9 0 - Meat 6 offal, other, fresh- - - - - - 125.9 342.7 234.4 0.0 BaconS&ham - - -- - - 38.6 0 3 4 9 127 Other meat 0. offal, salted, dried, smoked 15.0 3.2 - 14.6 31.5 8.5 35 6 0.1 1.8 11 3 Meat or fish extracts and juices 10.0 - - 7.9 9.5 5 4 - 2.2 3.5 - Sausages 15.3 - 28.6 81 1 80.1 127.9 379.3 237.4 216.2- Meat pastes 2.6 4.0 2.3 8.8 5.5 21.1 22.4 44.8 60.3- Bacon 0. ham, tinned or not tinned - 54.3 - 430.9 501 6 232.1 219.7 1:34 2 247.3- Meat preparation, other - 1,052.0 1,371.2 1,431.2 2,077.8 1,597.3 990.1 1,076.8 678.3- Value (in 1,000 liwacha) Bulls not for slaughter - 8.6 20.4 41.7 24.6 18 6 62.2 45.5 61.4- Cow & calves not for slaughter - 19.8 1.0 26.8 12.0 22.2 37.0 24.2 63.2 3.0 Cattle for slaughter 157.0 383.4 551.6 6 5 - 10.0 171 2 307.9 37.3 70.4 Pita not for slaughter - 1.6 2.0 1.4 - - 3.0 1.0 47.8 36.8 Day-old chicks - 107.4 62.8 84.9 51.3 42.7 23.3 19.7 186.2 108. Beef, fresh - 3.0 16.8 4..8 55.4 64.5 63.3 41.9 - - Beef, frozen - 4.2 195.8 1,355.0 2,822.2 3,777.4 2,156.8 1,834.5 6,072.0 3,725 8 Beef, chilled -2 313.4 1,100.2 712.0 1,138.6 557.4 282.3 8.31.1 755.9 35 8 Veal, fresh, frozen or chilled 694.0OJ - - 8.1 - - - 6.6 - - Mutton, fresh, frozen or chilled - 8.o - 117.2 - 9.9 2.8 15.5 0.5 Lamh, fresh, frozen or chilled- 243.4 - 250.2 362.8 169.3 185.8 306.9 115 7 Pork, fresh, frozen or chilled 236.0 19o.6 - 188.0 621.3 233 4 281.8 276.1 223.0 Beef, or veal offal- 4.2 41.6 193.5 291.9 46.6 421.5 2.38.7 753 6 170 5 Pork offal- 4.o 4.6 0.4 5.5 1.2 0 9 0.6 3.1 - Meat 4 offal, other, fresh-- - - - - 50.1 167.4 89.9 0 0 Bacon 0. henm - - - - - 30.3 0.6 4.7 7 7 Other meat & offal, salted, dried, smoked i4.o 4.2 - 7,3 21.0 2.5 22.5 0.2 3.0 9.1 Meat or fish extracts & juice 14.2 - - 11.6 15.7 8.4 2.5 4.2 - Sausages 12.8 - 16.2 54.6 63.1 88.6 229.7 140.0 139.9- Meat pastes 2.2 2.8 1.2 5.4 3.7 13.9 16.0 36.3 23.5- Bacon & hsm, tinned or not tinned - 36.0 - 341.9 421.9 186.9 163.5 112.8 157.3 Meat preparation, other 480.2 636.4 724,9 1,101.9 765.2 601.2 633.7 529.3- Unit value (in lKwacha/ton) Bulls not for slaughter 3/ - 294,896 383,170 421,394 724,353 582,500 441,475 631,556 468,527 Cow a calves not for slaughter7 - 96,498 944 161,927 160,000 217,647 174,623 117,476 82,951 200,000 Cattle for slaughter 321 38,466 35,584 49,820 261,600 - 558,000 -66,471 156,075 101,367 95,784 Pigs nut for s1aughtar~ 3/ - 28,862 57,636 67,238 - - 55,556 330,333 169,660 270,750 Day-old chicks 3/ - 266 252 336 808 589 793 662 108 455 Beef, fresh - 222 236 226 232 219 272 317 - - Beef, frozen - 284 550 456 505 459 515 518 501 603 Beef, chilled - 340 392 391 484 425 495 514 512 517 Veal, fresh, frozen or chilled 294 - - 243 - - - 668 - - Mutton, fresh, frozen or chilled - 432 - - 307 - 326 326 699 580 Lamb, fresh, frozen or chilIled - 422- - 373 361 421 420 417 342 Pork, fresh, frozen or chilled 356 406 - - 488 583 575 649 649 811 Beef or veal offal - 150 - 234 245 179 208 187 222 3222 Pork offal - 234 218 295 455 299 287 309 347 - Meat 4 offal, other, fresh - - - - - - 398 488 379 889 Bacon & ham--- - - - 784 2,298 950 607 Other meat & offal, salted, dried, smoked 936 1,314 - 50 666 295 632 2,260 1,658 809 Meat or fish extracts & Juice i,4i4 - 1,455 1,661 1,556 1,168 1,202 - Sausages 840 564 673 788 692 606 590 647- Meat pastes 822 688 550 607 676 660 712 810 389- Bacon & ham, tinned or not tinned - 664 - 794 841 805 744 841 636- Meat preparation, other 456 464 506 530 479 607 589 780- 1/ In number of head. 2/ Beef & veal, fresh, frozen, chilled. 3/1 Kwacha per 1,000 head. Source CSO, Annual Statmoent of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer printout. Table 4.10: IMPORTS OF DAIRY AND FISH PRODUCTS Commodity 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 quantity (in tons) Milk condensed, skimmed 5.7 16.3 3.1 32.9 151.2 333.1 770.0 7019 344.7 394.2 Cream preserve, tinned - - - 23.3 82.3 30.7 49 4 58.6 21.8 - Milk powder, skimmed 352.7 457.9 775.4 1,543.6 1,774.4 2,111.7 2.714,4 3,857.5 2,501.2 1,633.1 Milk powder, full cream 423.0 416.0 577.3 1,117.9 467.4 911.4 969.8 901.4 333 0 385.5 Milk prepared for infants - - - - - - 1,574.7 1,300 4 1,139.7 1,013.6 Butter 561.6 444.5 783.9 567.1 697.6 720.1 643.9 963 0 966.6 1,450.5 Ghee - 1.3 1.3 21.0 2.8 216.9 181.5 391.4 80.5 29.1 Cheese, Cheddar and Gouda 1.3 149.7 396.7 265.3 306.9 70.0 240.8 522 6 224 1 190.5 Cheese, other, tinned or processed 100.1 163.6 97.3 179.2 184,1 416.2 242.1 296 4 211 6 39 3 Fish, fresh, frozen or chilled 532.6 594.1 503.2 564.5 613,3 602,8 443.8 314.1 336 3 173 5 Fish, salted, smoked or prepared 3,807.5 4,326.5 3,844.9 4,593.9 3,585.1 5,608.0 5,741.0 6,005 8 5,235.7 2,798.6 Fish pastes, fish preparations 410.5 679.5 1,030.2 1,805.3 2,370.6 2,065.2 1,376.3 846.5 3,098 1 Value (in 1,000 Kwacha) Milk condensed, skimmed 1.0 4.8 1.0 7.8 41.0 84.3 193.8 181.3 96.3 149.2 Cream preserve, tinned - - - 10.7 36.1 13.9 32.4 21.4 14.8 - Milk powder, skimmed 79.4 130.0 i86.0 420.8 343.7 378.6 569.9 915.8 741 8 742.2 Milk powder, full cream 258.6 321.2 462.2 741.7 268.2 579.9 669.7 656.9 193.1 339.9 Milk prepared for infants - - - - - - 1,101.4 777.2 743 2 881.3 Butter 365.8 414.6 475.8 263.1 270.5 264.6 194.0 383.1 744.3 977.6 Ghee - o.6 o.4 4.6 1.7 88.3 78.4 181 0 68 9 22 9 Cheese, Cheddar and Gouda 1.0 71.8 182.2 125.9 124.6 31.4 100.5 229.9 110.6 111.4 Cheese, other, tinned or processed 84.o 129.6 80.6 130.6 118.6 221.8 142.9 200.5 204.8 31.1 Fish, fresh, frozen or chilled 215.2 245.4 247.2 232.1 277.6 282.7 213.8 147.0 217.6 183.7 Fish, salted, smoked or prepared 285.2 466.2 491.4 631.5 590.6 2,026.3 1,994.0 1,966.8 1,365.7 672 6 Fish pastes, fish preparations 180.8 312.4 385.0 682.5 786.7 696.9 528.3 344.6 1,081.3 Unit Value (in Kwacha/ton) Milk condensed, skimmed 19O 296 300 236 271 253 252 258 279 378 Cream preserve, tinned - - - 458 438 452 655 366 682 - Milk powder, skimmed 226 284 240 273 194 179 210 237 297 455 Milk powder, full cream 612 772 800 663 574 636 691 729 590 882 Milk prepared for infants - - - - - 699 598 652 869 Butter 652 708 606 464 388 368 301 398 770 674 Ghee - 506 274 220 598 407 432 463 856 786 Cheese, Cheddar and Gouda 790 480 460 475 406 449 417 440 494 585 Cheese, other, tinned or processed 840 792 828 429 645 533 590 676 968 790 Fish, fresh, frozen or chilled 404 412 492 411 453 469 482 468 647 1,058 Fish, salted, smoked or prepared 100 108 128 137 165 361 347 327 261 240 Fish pastes, fish preparations 440 460 374 378 332 337 384 407 349 Source: CSO, Annual Statement of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer Printout. c3l Table 4.11: EXPORTS OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS Commodity 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 Quantities (in tons) Bran, Pollard, Sharps 7,854.7 8,432.1 7,359.5 10,478.5 10,270.2 9,084.6 4,782.7 5,901.6 136.1 Day-old Chicken 11 52.9 256.8 192.8 203.2 471.6 774.1 912.0 1,297.0 1,192.1 Maize (in the grain) 12.2 47,272.0 39,892.1 198,100.9 63,989.7 8,441.5 0.5 8,597.7 1,896.0 50,085.8 Maize (Ground or Prepared) 1,959.5 1,743.3 484.3 141.0 18.1 - 2.7 - - 7.3 Groundnuts (Shelled) 618.9 2,712.6 3,479.4 4,450.7 6,167.6 3,799.4 3,921.4 3,433.2 2,447.4 3,626.4 Groundnuts (Unshelled) - 0.2 - - - 976.3 0.3 - - - Cotton Linters - 215.1 983.8 855.6 278.4 21.3 - 4,568.0 1,173.8 - Cotton Seeds 543.8 - - - - - 5,659.6 - 6,637.5 237.9 Cotton Waste 33.8 104.6 78.8 101.8 97.9 24.7 - - - - Raw Cotton 463.9 49.9 - - - - - _ _ _ Tobacco: Burley 1,717.9 2,038.0 909.8 245.3 65.1 91.9 49.2 45.0 115.7 Tobacco: Virginia 10,124.2 7,284.5 6,342.6 3,947.1 3,449.8 2,736.8 3,302.5 4,495.1 3,551.9 5,025.9 Tobacco: Turkish 431.2 387.2 17.0 165.6 - - 115 8 - - - Tobacco: Other - 40.6 - 44.2 26.1 938.4 563.1 671.9 513 5 5.6 Value (in 1,000 Kwacha) Bran, Pollard, Sharps - 178.7 208.4 142.2 170.2 146.3 161.6 91.8 . 116.4 2.2 Day-old Chicken - 12.2 52.8 41.8 40.5 86.1 132.9 155.6 212.0 210.9 Maize (in the grain) 0.4 1,893.5 1,796.2 8,749.0 2,837.9 373.7 0 176.6 100 1 2,642.9 Maize (Ground or Prepared) 108.4 105.9 20.5 6.9 1.4 - 0 - - 0.8 Groundnuts (Shelled) 95.1 629.0 730.0 659.8 1,012.5 839.7 741.3 690.7 583.8 1,059.8 Groundnuts (Unshelled) - 0 - - - 229.8 0 - - - Cotton Linters - 102.7 512.6 370.8 128.0 8.5 - 1,560.3 522.9 - Cotton Seeds 14.9 - - - - - 276.5 - 312.6 120 6 Cotton Waste 2.8 10.4 5.2 6.0 6.0 1.5 - - - - Raw Cotton 218.7 23.2 - - - - - - - - Tobacco: Burley 605.1 639.3 312.1 56.9 38.7 56.4 3.4 10.8 1.2 - Tobacco: Virginia 4,857.6 4,054.9 4,190.1 3,526.2 2,688.9 2,415.2 2,325.5 3,055.9 2,354.9 4,754.3 Tobacco: Turkish 200.7 167.0 11.6 91.9 - - 76.5 - - - Tobacco: Other - 13.3 - 22.7 11.2 691.5 447.1 444.9 380.8 3.7 Unit Value (K/ton) Bran, Pollard, Sharps - 23 25 19 16 14 18 19 20 17 Day-old Chicken 2/ - 230 206 217 200 183 172 172 163 177 Maize (in the grain) 36 40 45 44 44 44 37 21 53 53 Maize (Ground or Prepared) 55 61 42 49 77 - 55 - - 103 Groundnuts (Shelled) 154 232 210 148 164 221 189 201 239 292 Groundnuts (Unshelled) - 91 - - - 235 331 - - - Cotton Linters - 477 521 433 460 400 - 342 445 - Cotton Seeds 27 - - - - - 49 - 47 507 Cotton Waste 84 99 66 59 61 61 - - - - Raw Cotton 471 465 - - - - - - - - Tobacco: Burley 352 314 354 232 594 613 69 241 10 - Tobacco: Virgiiniia 480 557 661 893 779 883 704 680 663 946 Tobacco: Turkish 465 431 679 555 - - 660 - - - Tobacco: Other - 329 - 513 429 737 794 662 742 663 1/ In 1,000 head- 2/ In Kawcha per 1,000 head. 1 > Source: CSO, Annual Statement of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer Printout. HH Table: 4 12 NET IMPORTS (+) OR EXPORTS (-) OF MAJOR AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, 1964-73 (in K'000) 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1/ Cereals and Cereal Preparation 3230 1218 3013 -3962 2455 8268 8768 24971 11682 3258 2/ Vegetables and Fruits 1586 1992 2367 2778 3133 2675 2470 2589 2346 1095 Sugar and Sugar Preparations 2287 3034 2322 2694 2305 1793 2213 1836 1550 1515 3/ Meat and Animal Products 3220 2898 6437 7709 9913 11805 10790 11056 15385 10370 Oils and Fats 789 1196 2219 2318 1902 2814 4018 4430 3676 4137 Cotton -169 -67 -469 -312 -86 43 57 -1506 -433 n.a. Tobacco -4159 -3437 -2846 -3454 -2650 -3006 -2719 -3258 -2184 -4690 _/ Other Ag. Commodities 2936 5919 4659 4243 4229 6400 7995 10898 8324 n.a. 5/ Net Import of ALL Ag. Commodities 9720 12753 17702 12014 21201 30792 33592 51016 40364 n.a. _ ~~~~~6/ Net Import of Maior Ag. Commodities 6783 6741 13086 7631 16783 25116 26217 42566 32141 16084 7/ All Food Imports 15042 17814 22384 23675 26031 33225 34784 52623 40815 29847 % of Total Imports 9.6 8.5 9.1 7.7 8.0 10.3 10.2 13.2 10.1 7.6 8/ All Ag. Exports 8981 9193 9425 14958 8220 6014 5254 7017 5429 - % of Total Exports 2.7 2.5 1.9 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.5 1.0 - 1/ Includes prepared cereals and cereal products 6/ Major agricultural commodities refer to the above listed items. 2/ Includes all fresh, frozen, dried and processed vegetables. All food includes SITC section 0 and 4, but excludes group 43 in section 4 3/ Includes poultry, milk and similar products. (animal and vegetable waxes). 4/ Refers to all other agriculture commodities not included in above. 8/ All agricultural exports includes SITC sections 0, 1, 2, and 4, excluding listing such as tea, cocoa, spices, other prepared food, rubber, group 11 of section 1 (beverages) and 27 of section 2 (crude fertilizer and timber, hides and skins, animal and vegetable waxes. mineral) and also 28 in section 2 (metalliferous ores and metal scraps). 5/ All agricultural commodities refer to SITC sections 0(food and live animals); l(beverages and tobacco); 2(crude material, inedible) and 4 (animal and vegetable oils and fats). a x Source: Republic of Zambia, Central Statistical Office, Annual Statement of External Trade, 1964-72 and 1973 Computer Prirtout ANNEX 19 Table 5.1 Table 5.1: PRICES OF FERTILIZER TO FARMERS (Kwacha/50 kg Pocket) Commodity Nutrien',s 15'71/72 1972/73 1973/7L4 19714/75 Tobacco Mixture A 2-18-15 2.18 3.OC L, .00 L.00 C 6-18-12 2.48 3.20 3.90 3.90 V 4-38-5 I 2.48 3.15 3.90 3 .90C Maize Mixture R 20-20-0 2.70 3.55 44.25 4.25 X 20-10-5 2.75 3.50 14.15 14.15 D 10-20-10 2.75 3.50 14.00 14.00 Nitrogenous Fertilizer ArnoniA, jt, ratt 31;-C 2-43 2.95 3.80 3.80 Sul1phate of AnruS'Rd' 21-0-0 1.83 2.20 3.00 3.00 Urea 46-0-0 2.80 3.55 4.05 4.05 Nitrate ou Soda 16-0-0 2.65 3.35 4.00 L.00 Phosphate Fertilzer Slnrgle Supers 0-1-0C, 1.e 1.9Q( 1.90 1.90 Trip'le Supers 0-44-0 31.13 4.00 3.90 3.90 Potash Fertilizer Potassium Chloridr& 0-0-60 2.03 2.60 3.60 3.60 Potass,din. Sulphate 0-C_50 2.65 3.35 4.20 b.20 MiscellAneous Gypsum 1.75 2.10 2.10 2.10 Soluboi 20.00 20.00 20.00 20.00 Source: MRD, Planning Unit. Table 5.2: GAZETTED CROP PRODUCER PRICES (in Kwacha) Crops Unit 1970/71 1971/72 1972/73 1973/74 1974/75 Remarks 1. Maize 90 kg bag 4.00 4.30 4.30 4.30 5 00 Delivered to NAMB main line of rail depots or EPCMA main depots. 3.20 3.50 4.00 4.00 5.00 Delivered to EPCMA Village hiarkets 5.00 5.00 4.30 4.30 5 00 Delivered to Mongu 4.80 5.00 4.30 4.30 5.00 Delivered to Kabompo 3.20 3.50 4,00 4.00 5.00 Floor Price 2. Groundnuts 80 kg bag 10.20 10.20 12.60 17.00 17.00 Grade A. NAMB line of rail depots. - 9.90 12.00 16.00 16.00 Grade B. NAMB line of rail depots. 9.60 9.60 12.60 17.00 17.00 Grade A. NAMB and NPCMU district centers - 9.30 12.00 16,00 16.00 Grade B. NAMB and NPCMU district centers 10.80 10.80 12.60 17.00 19.00 Grade A. EPCMA main depots. 9.00 9.00 12.00 16.00 17.00 Grade B. EPCMA main depots. 8.10 8.10 11.40 - 15.00 Grade C. EPCMA main depots. 10.20 10.20 - - - Grade A. EPCMA village markets. 8.40 8.40 - - - Grade B. EPCMA village markets 7.50 7.50 - - - Grade C. EPCMA village markets 3. Sugar beans 90 kg bag 14.00 14.00 14.00 14.00 17.00 NAMB main line of rail depots ". 10.20 10.20 10.20 10.20 17.00 NAMB and NPCMU district depots 4. Haricot beans 90 kg bag 10.50 10.50 10.50 10.50 - NAMB line of rail depots ". 9.60 9.60 9.60 9.60 - NAMB and NPCMU district depots and EPCMA main depots 5. Soya beans 90 kg bag 8.40 8.40 8.40 13.20 13.20 NAMB line of rail and specified depots 6. Sorghum 90 kg bag 4.70 4.70 4.70 5.00 6.00 Malting grade. Delivered to NAMB 7. Paddy kg 0.09 0.11 0.11 0.15 0.15 Delivered to district centers 8. Sunflower seed 50 kg bag 4.62 4.62 6.64 8.95 9.40 Delivered to line of rail 11 - - 7.50 9.80 - Delivered to Refined Oil Product, Lusaka 9. Wheat 90 kg bag - - 7.50 7.50 12.00 At least 12% protein content, NAMB and Cooperative Union depots. 10. Maize seed 50 kg pkt. - 16.50 18.00 18.00 18.00 At line of rail - 11.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 Rural areas 11. Seed cotton, Hand Picked Lusaka Grade A N/kg 17.06 17.07 17.07 25.00 30.00 Grade B " 13.02 13.02 13.02 19.00 24.00 Grade C " 11.00 11.00 11.00 16.00 21.00 Hand picked, Chipata Grade A " 17.06 17.07 17.07 25.00 32.00 Grade B " 13.02 13.02 13.02 19.00 26.00 Grade C " 11.00 11.02 11.00 16.00 23.00 Machine picked, Lusaka Grade A 15.05 15.05 15.05 22.00 27.00 Grade B " 11.00 11.00 11.00 16.00 21.00 Grade C " 8.08 8.08 8.08 13.00 18.00 0 Machine picked, Chipata Grade A 15.04 15.05 15.05 22.00 29.00 Grade B " 11.00 11.00 11.00 16.00 23.00 Grade C " 8.08 8.08 8.08 13 00 20.00 Source: Planning Unit, Ministry of Rural Development. ANNEX 19 Table 5.3 Table 5.3: RETAIL PRICES OF SELECTED AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES" (in Kwacha) Unit 197)4 're sh Milk Pint 0.10 03.11 u"iedcez Cheese 45kg 0.56 0.56 Putler, 1st Grade 250kg 0.37 0.37 Eggs 1() eggs 0-53 0 53 White Bread 800 g 0.13 0/ 0.13 Rice 500 g 0.14-0.20 0.20 ;Wheat Flour kg 0.14 0.1k4 Cooking Oil 26 oz 0.40 2/ 0.40 Sugar kg 0.22-0.24 0.24 Fresh Fish kg 0.28 0.38 Dried Fish kg 0 64 0.65 I/ h6/ Potatoes kg O.32_V 0.23L/ Onions kg 0.40 0.21 Cabbage kg 0.24/ 0.228/ Mealie Meal: Kabwe 90 kg 5.31 5.31 Ushaa 90 kg 10.32 10.32 lMongu 90 kg 8.52 8.52 Sdlwezi 90 kg 6.50 6.50 Kasempa 90 kg 8.00 8.00 Zaqnbezi 90 kg 9.50 9.50 Breakfast Food: Uopperhelt eo kg 4.40 Lusaka 50 kg L.)o40 o X In Lusaka except where otherwise specified. 1/ Price incresed from 0.14 to 0.20 K/500 g or K/lb in August, U73. 2/ Price increased from 0.22 to 0.24 K/kg in August, 1973 I/ Average of 1973 4/ November Prices. Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bufletin, June. 19744, (Acdvanced Copy) CSO, Unpublished Price Worksheets. ANNEX 19 Table 5.4 Table 5.4: WHOLESALF, PRICE OF BEEF AND BEEF PRODUCTS, 1974 Carcass Beef (K/100 kg): S des - Choice & Super 1/ 101.00 Sides - Standard 1/ 93.00 Sides - Commercial 1/ 62.60 Forequarters 90.00 liiri dquarters 115.0O BeEf Ceuts (K/l): Fillet Steak/Tenderloin 2.64 Rcump Steak 2.15 Top Side 1.52 S-4 1eErside 1. 52 Striploin/Porterhouse 2.15 Thick Flank/Gravy Beef 1.10 Thin Flank 0. 74 Chop s 1. 50 E'oeless FGrequtaIrter S 1.50 7r - f l i r gs,Skirts 1.10 Beef Piecef- 1.10 Brisket-Bone In 0.90 Bee! Offals (K/Ik): Tail]s 0.54 Tongues 0.85 Liver 0. 85 Hearts 0.60 Kiridey 0.85 Rough Tripe 0.40 Clean Tripe C. 56 7.lt!gz~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 7.140 5pleer, Q'.l ',vbles 0.20O 0.210 Cleck Meat o.60 !Tead Meat 0.50 U,ders 0.10 Fat and Bones 0.09 Cow Heals (each) 0.10 Heads (each) 1.20 ;azetted Pr ces ;olrce: vold Storage Board. ANNEX 19 Table 5.5 Table 5.5: WHOLESALE, PRICES OF OTHER MEAT AND MEAT PRODUCTS, 197)4 Imported Lamb (K/kg): Lamb Carcass 1.70 Local Lamb. Mutton & Goat (K/kg): Carcass 0.80 Offals - Liver 0.56 Offals - Tongues 0.56 Offals - Hearts 0.56 Offals,- Lungs 0.30 Pork (K/kg-: Porkers 0.88 Manufacturing Pigs 0.70 Baconers 0.70 Pork Bones 0.30 Offals - Liver o.56 Offals - Tongues 0.56 Cffa,s - Hearts 0.56 Offals - Lungs 0.30 Veal (K/ R): Carcass & Pluck 1.45 Poultry (K/kg): Chickens 0.9)4 Ducks 1.30 Turkeys 2.60 Sausages and other Products (K/kg): Beef Sausages 0.96 Pork Sausages 1.02 Cocktail Sausages 1.1L Frankfurters 1.38 Viem-na Sausage 1.-0 French Bologna 1.07 Garlic Bologra 1.07 Tiliewr pologr,a 1.16 Source: Cold Storage Board. ANNEX 19 Table 5.6 Table 5.6: STATUTORY MINI4UM PRODuICER PRICE nF BEEF!! ( wacha/100 kg c.d.w.) Grades Per-od Choice-/ Piriely Stanclard4/ Commercia tla U itT 1965_ 35.23 30.39 25.33 20.37 J960_ 35.23 20.39 25.33 20.37 1967 (Apr.) 44.09 40.78 35.40 29.39 2h.06 1968 (Jan.) 55.11 - 49.60 35.58 1969 5.11 L_9.60 35.58 1970 55.11 - 49.60 35.58 _ 1971 55.11 - 49.60 35.58 _ 1972 (May) 63.90 - 58.30 47.LO _ 1973 63.90 - 58.30 87.liC _ 1974 (Jn.) 73.50 - 67-05 52.15 _ 2 The minimum producpr prices re gazetted by the Statutory Instruments. Based on this gazetted price, the Cold Stoage Board stipulates nonthly producer prices, ard these vary With area W seasor. In Western and Eastern Provinces, 10 K/head i' being charged as railage cost, compared to 7 K/head in Southern, Central and Northern Provinces. The producer price in Lecember *5 being set highest while the price ii I"arch-July lowest, with a margin of 14 - 15%. In addition, the Cold Storage Board charges 3% for the cost of condamnation. 2/ Assumes 52% conversior, rate liveweight to c.d.w. / The grades of prime and utility abolished in the beginning of 1968. / Assumes 46% conversion rate liveweight to c.d.w. j/ Assurnes 43% conversion rate liveweight to c.d.w. Source: MRD, Planning Unit. ANNEX 19 1/ Table 5.7 Table 5.7: MAXIMUM STATUTJORY RETAIL PRICE OF BEEF Beef Product.F 1972 1973 1974 Choice and Standard Grade Beef Cut Fillet Steak 1.87 1.87 3.30' Porter House 1.54 1.54 2.E5 Rump Steak 1.5)4 1.54 .* Rolled Beef 1.32 1.32 2.06 Sirloin T. Bone Steak 1.21 1.21 1.90 Sirloin 1.21 1.21 1.90 Top Side 121 1.23 1.90 Silver Side 1.21 1.21 1.90 Aitchbone 1.21 1.21 1.90 Bolo 1.10 1.10 1.36 Gravy Beef 1.10 1.10 1.36 Wing Rib 0.99 0.99 1.30 Beef Ribs 0.77 0.77 0.92 Peef Flark 0.77 0.77 0.92 Chuck and Blade with Bone 0.77 0.77 0.92 Short Rib 0.77 0.77 0.92 Brisket with Bone 0.77 0.77 0.92 Think Flank 0.77 0.77 0.92 Neck 0.70 0.70 o.84 Shin Meat (Bone In) 0.70 0.70 o.84 Commercial Grade Beef Cut Beef - - 1.00 Beef with Bone - - 0.74 Offa s and Manufacturi;t r eef Liver 0.88 0.88 1.06 Sausages and Boerewors 0.88 0.88 1.06 Kidney 0.84 0.84 1.06 Tongue 0.84 0.84 1.06 Mince Meat 0.77 0.77 0.92 Lean Trir rngs 0.66 o.66 0.80 JJTe. rt. 0.62 0.62 0.74 Tripe - Clean o.60 0.60 0.70 Tails 0.57 0.57 0.68 Tripe - Rough 0.44 0.44 0.50 Lungs, Spleen Heat 0.44 o.44 o.50 Brains 0.44 0.44 0.50 Bybles, Casings 0.29 0.29 0.30 Fat-Suet 0.11 0.11 0.12 Bones 0.11 0.11 0.12 1/ The retail price of beef and beef products have nct bee2. ch.-anged urtil 1974, since 1968. Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Stat.isticalM Bulletin, June 1974 (Advanced Copy). Table 5.8: GUARANTEED MINIMUM PIG PRODUCER PRICES (Ngwee/kg. c.d.w.) Porkers Baconers Manufacturing Av. Producer Grade I Grade 2 Grade 3 Super Grade Grade A Grade B Grade A Grade B Inferior Price Ngwee Ngwee Ngwee Ngwee A. Ngwee Ngwee Ngwee Ngwee Ngwee Grade Ngwee Per kg. Per k Pe. Per kg. Per kg. Per kg. Per kg Per P.kg. Per kg. Per kg. All Grades 1970 57.3 56.2 44.0 57.3 55.1 48.5 44.0 37.5 22.0 46.9 1971 57.3 56.2 44.0 57.3 55.1 48.5 44.0 37.5 22.0 46.9 1972 62.8 59.5 48.5 62.8 59.5 52.9 48.5 41.8 26.5 51.4 1973 62.8 59.5 48.5 62.8 59.5 52.9 48.5 41.8 26.5 51.4 1974 62.8 59.5 48.5 62.8 59.8 52.9 48.5 41.8 26.5 51.4 Source: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June, 1974 (Advanced Copy). H _ID Table 5.9: GUARANTEED MILK PRODUCER PRICES (NWGEE/Liter) Midlands Copperbelt Yearly Average Dec March July Dec March July Line- to to to to to to Copper- of- Period Feb June Nov Feb June Nov Midlands Belt Rail 1968 6,2 7.3 8.1 7.3 8.4 9.2 7.2 8,3 7.8 1969 6.8 7.9 8.8 7.9 9.0 9.9 7.8 8.9 8.3 1970 6.8 7.9 8.8 7.9 9.0 9.9 7.8 8.9 8.3 1971 6.8 7.9 8.8 7.9 9.0 9.9 7.8 8.9 8A3 1972 8.6 9.7 10.6 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.5 10.7 10.1 1973 8.6 9.7 10.6 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.5 10.7 10.1 1974 8.6 9.7 10.6 9.7 10.8 11.7 9.5 10.7 10.1 Soujrce: MRD, Quarterly Agricultural Statistical Bulletin, June, 1974 (Advanced Copy). Trable 5.10: 11IY). i-1T1BFfl. F.S C0OLNSUIER PRICES: HIGE IiCOKE GItOUP: ALL CENTRES CO04BIND (1969=1O0) Gro sF, Food, Rent, Medical Recreation, Other Beverages Clothing, F'uel Furnitwre Care, Entertain- Goods Al & & 8& & Health Transport, ment & Ftems Tobacco Footwear Light Household Services Communications Education Services Wei,ht 1.000 309 79 194 130 13 158 79 38 1969 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 I00.f 100.0 100.0 1970 105.0 103.0 103.5 1:1.8 ]Q4.7 100.1 i01.8 103.8 102.2 1]971 11C.9 109.7 109.4 119.7 109.1 102.0 107.3 110.3 104.2 1972 118.7 119.9 120.0 121.5 118.5 108.4 118.4 113.6 107.7 1-973 126.4 12P,.8 131.9 125.0 128.6 113.2 127.1 119.1 1.Lr 1974: Jaruary 133.1 1h0.5 139.7 125.9 135.7 117.0 133.3 122.6 1'3.2 February - 13.1 ).5 1 W 125.9 336.1 117.0 135.1 125.6 113.L March 135.1 142.7 142.8 125.9 137.0 117.0 136.6 127.5 114.0 April 135.9 143.2 1l4LL.2 125.9 138.0 117.4 138.2 128.5 114.4 May 136.3 143.6 145.4 125.9 138.8 118.0 138.7 129.1 1L4.7 June 137.3 144.2 146.1 125.9 139.2 118.5 142.3 129.8 Ib.? July 228 . 1 V1)4.6 ]6.9 125.9 140.0 118.6 145.2 130.5 114.7 August 138.5 145.1 147.4 125.9 140.8 119.0 145.5 131.0 116.9 Source: CSO, Monthly Digest of Statistics, Seltemer,;, 1974. '0 0 Table 5-11: INDEX NUMBERS OF CONSUMER PRICES: LOW INCOME GROLP: ALL CENTERS CONBINED (1969=100) Furnishirgs All other Food, beverages Clothing, Rent, fuel, and furniture, goods and All Items and tobacco footwear lipThting household equipment Services Weight 1,000 647 136 111 65 LI 1969 10Q'.0 lOf.0 200.0 10('.' 100.0 100.0 1970 102.6 3-C2.P 2' "7 -('.7 C6.7 104.8 1971 108.8 108.8 108.7 105.9 114.2 111.1 1972 f14.6 113.9 117.6 108.8 123.3 117.1 1973 121.9 121.5 126.2 113.0 132.4 122.6 1974: January 129.0 130.0 132.4 115.3 137.4 '125.7 February 1229.8 130.9 133.351 115.3 138.0 130.0 March 13Cu5 1315 134.3 115.3 138.6 130.5 Akr'1 131.0 131.9 135.5 135.3 139.3 130.8 F.'ay ~ 131.8 132.0 136.5 115.3 139.8 131.6 June 131.9 132.5 137.1 115.3 140.5 136.3 July 132.- 4 132.7 137.8 117.6 141.0 136.5 Aug-uEo t 1 232.7 132.9/ 138.1 118.0 L.1, 237.1 Suc_ Mo__ 1__ieto_ tt______ b 1 Source: MoriLlUy, l)igest of Statist_os, September, 1974 . ANNEX 19 Table 5.12 2 2! 82 2 _ Z _- 44O N - W 0 0 'a -4-4-a-a- 6 i ' 8 ~ . os@ " 2 oa'a'a'X *1 o a' a' Nr4s 04 ~ ~ f 04 n 4 444, C~~~ .;a 2 , . . 2 2 .. .. a~ ~ ~ a a o' o - -' -''a - ' -'a ' ' 3-a'u 0 a' a' a' a' r' a' C a'.4 ' c_co 8o a' - 2' a' a 2 2' - 2a 2a' o a' a ' - a ' a 4 a .4 o' - - a' - .4 0 2 C a' a' 'a -a 'a< , ~ ~~~ C C o''4 - _' a' _' a' _a'___ a' a'a'a '' e ANNEX 19 Table 6.1 Table 6.1: NAMBOARD GRAIN STORAGE CAPACITY, 1974/75 (in 1,000 90 kg bags) Open Covered Hard Depots Silos Sheds 1, Standing Total Permanent Depots Kitwe 160 - - 160 Bwana Mkubwa 250 225 560 1,035 Kabwe/Natuseko 2'O 150 475 875 Chisamba 250 120 582 952 Lusaka 160 300 803 1,263 Mazabuka - 80 226 306 Monze 160 195 508 863 Pemba - 30 175 205 Choma - 23 496 519 Livingstone - 40 621 661 Chambishi - - 600 600 Sub-total 1,230Y/ 1,163 5,046 7,439 Rural Depots Mhushi - - 120 120 Mumbwa - - 60 60 Chipata - - 100 100 Luapula Province - - 122 122 North Western - 60 40 100 Western Province _ 66 117 183 Sub-total - 126 559 685 Transit Depots Chipongwe - - 20 20 Karubwe - - 345 345 Kasavasa - - 140 140 Chankwakwa - - 50 50 Kapiri Mposhi - 40 358 398 Senkobo - - 20 20 Mayoba - - 20 20 Bowood - - 30 30 Kalomo - 50 50 Tambero - - 20 20 Nega Nega - - 40 40 Kaleya - - 250 250 Lubombo - - 107 107 Tara - 50 50 Sub-total - 40 1,5nn 1,540 TOTAL 1,230 1,329 7,105 9,664 1/ All covered sheds in the permanent depots are being used to store fertilizer, seeds and other chemicals. Thus the total silo and covered shed capability for maize is about 2 million bags. 2/ Includes new 750,000 bag silo capacity built by ZCCO. Source: NAMBoard. ANNEX 19 Table 6.2 Table 6.2: NUMBER OF DEPOTS FOR CROP INTAKE Provinces NAMBoard ECU SPCMU NPCMU Total Central 168 - - - 168 Southern 68 - 163 - 231 Copperbelt 17 - - - 17 Western 75 - - - 75 North-western 95 - - - 95 Luapula 85 - - - 85 Northern 3 - - 400 403 2/ Eastern - 273- - - 273 Total: 511 273 163 400 1.347 1/ Each rural district normally has one permanent depots, i.e. the District Center, all other depots are seasonal, and may or may not be mobile depots. A mobile depot is a collection point where lorries visit according to itineraries to purchase crops. 2/ Consists of 6 main depots, 249 markets and 18 buying points. Source: NAMBoard and other Marketing Cooperatives. Table 6.3: NEW REGISTRATION OF MOTOR VEHICLES Passenger Transport Cargo Transport Construction ________ ________ ______ ________ _______V ehicles, Motor Passenger Cars 0mribus Vans Trucks Tractors Cycles Total 1964 5,647 15 1,480 445 362 524 8,473 1965 6,366 28 2,686 1,092 479 728 11,379 1966 4,510 37 2,374 1,773 660 1,123 10,477 1967 6,558 71 3,430 1,874 649 1,762 14,344 1968 7,21;0 36 3,364 1,707 394 2,197 14,938 1969 6,246 86 3,441 1,356 541 1,682 13,352 1970 5,984 54 3,743 1,470 622 1,657 13,.530 1971 6,165 152 5,042 2,349 854 1,618 16,180 1972 5,539 274 4,321 1,747 836 1,824 1J4,541 1973 (Jan-June) 2,766 231 1,727 898 276 760 6,658 Source: CSO, Monthly Digest of Statistics, September, 1974. IuD rDx}>